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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 24, 2012, 05:38:50 pm »
Damnit guys...
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 24, 2012, 05:36:21 pm »Well shit. Looks like Ashersky took matters into his own hands. Robz, last words quick
I just gave them to you.
Yup. Popped up when I posted. Sorry
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 24, 2012, 05:35:36 pm »
Well shit. Looks like Ashersky took matters into his own hands. Robz, last words quick
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 24, 2012, 05:34:40 pm »I am suspicious of Cuzz's call for someone to hammer without more discussion. It wasn't a "I think it's time for the hammer. What thinks the group?" It was a "individual person, hammmer!" O did the same thing, but he's been pushing Robz lynch the whole time. Could Cuzz perhaps be scum calling for the lynch while he still looks clean?
I couldn't remember when this happened so I dug it up, click through for link:Recent quotes from Eevee:
...
Can someone please hammer so we can get some real information before the mafia have chance to screw with us more?
Wasn't this right after the debate about whether prolonging debate when a lynch is certain helps or hinders scum? Cuzz evidently believes it helps scum. I don't, but I am starting to think we're running out of things to talk about. I unlike some of the other potential hammers I do think Robz is our best bet at scum. As Geolib obliquely suggests, I will say it: "I think it's time for the hammer, what thinks the group?"
I will hammer on a majority, unless someone beats me to it/really wants to do it themselves.
As I said before: I don't like it. I vote no.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 24, 2012, 05:17:38 pm »I share Jorbles's thoughts regarding morgrim, expect I'd say he is rather slightly town than exactly 2/8 (Jorbles, is that a scumslip, a mistake or are you actually unsure of your own alignment?). This disappearing act makes sense for a bored vanilla townie too, as sad as that is. Morgrim is never going to be nightkilled (especially now), so having him around as town is a bit problematic. Don't really know what the best course of action would be.
Lynch him. That's the best course of action.
We don't have the votes for that. We do for you, though. Anyone willing to change their vote? If not, it sounds like we can go ahead and lynch Robz.
Yeah we do... I mean, at least we do theoretically. There are 4 votes on Robz, leaving 5 that could go on Morgrim. Your math sucks too... Unless I'm missing something?
I am still reluctant to lynch Robz because I don't think he's scum, but as Eevee points out, his flip would give us some info. Wait a sec... It looks like it only gives us lots of info if he is scum. (I look scummy, Everyone on wagon looks towny). What do we get if he flips town? AIRC, the only info we get is that I look slightly townier, and that just doesn't seem worth it really. Does it?
Last night lying in bed (yeah I was thinking about this while trying to sleep. Apparently I have no life...) I thought that perhaps before we lynch we should have everyone say some last words. I was really happy with this idea, but then I realized that it would just give scum the opportunity to NK whoever's last words were the most wrong... Damn, and I thought I was so smart. Of course I could have just suggested the last words part and then relied on scum to figure out the rest, NK an unsuspecting townie and then point out the problem the next day and suggest doing the opposite of whatever they said, but that seemed too much like playing the rest of the town, which felt scummy. Ah well. I guess this entire paragraph is pretty much useless then...
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 24, 2012, 05:09:09 pm »
Ok. I'm back.
I realize this has been addressed, but Cuzz's Eevee-Robz scumbuddy theory is patently absurd (sorry Cuzz). It assumes we've already found one scum and that the other scum would want to draw the votes away by.... Putting them on himself?!? Eevee and Robz could be scum buddies, but this would be because Eevee is saying he wants to vote Robz, but not voting Robz. Deliberately getting yourself lynched by acting suspicious is probably the worst scum strategy ever (Go on, correct me you pedants).
I agree with O that if Robz flips scum then it's pretty unlikely that anyone on the wagon is scum. Bussing you scum-buddy D1 is almost as bad as deliberately lynching yourself. The only reason to hop on the wagon is if it seems inevitable to vindicate yourself and I don't think there was ever a point where the wagon seemed huge and inevitable for someone to just hop on. Is the vote count in the order that they voted??
I am suspicious of Cuzz's call for someone to hammer without more discussion. It wasn't a "I think it's time for the hammer. What thinks the group?" It was a "individual person, hammmer!" O did the same thing, but he's been pushing Robz lynch the whole time. Could Cuzz perhaps be scum calling for the lynch while he still looks clean?
I notice that O has changed his style somewhat. No longer making absolute declarations. I appreciate this, and it seems like a nod to my obvious annoyance at his certitude (Thanks, O). OTOH, does changing your style like this seem scummy? I think it probably doesn't. Just a realization that one way isn't going to get you any further.
Oh and just saw the post about Jorble's math. I too have made the same mistake, viewing the game as an objective outsider. You make a good point though. I now view each of you as more scummy than before!
I realize this has been addressed, but Cuzz's Eevee-Robz scumbuddy theory is patently absurd (sorry Cuzz). It assumes we've already found one scum and that the other scum would want to draw the votes away by.... Putting them on himself?!? Eevee and Robz could be scum buddies, but this would be because Eevee is saying he wants to vote Robz, but not voting Robz. Deliberately getting yourself lynched by acting suspicious is probably the worst scum strategy ever (Go on, correct me you pedants).
I agree with O that if Robz flips scum then it's pretty unlikely that anyone on the wagon is scum. Bussing you scum-buddy D1 is almost as bad as deliberately lynching yourself. The only reason to hop on the wagon is if it seems inevitable to vindicate yourself and I don't think there was ever a point where the wagon seemed huge and inevitable for someone to just hop on. Is the vote count in the order that they voted??
I am suspicious of Cuzz's call for someone to hammer without more discussion. It wasn't a "I think it's time for the hammer. What thinks the group?" It was a "individual person, hammmer!" O did the same thing, but he's been pushing Robz lynch the whole time. Could Cuzz perhaps be scum calling for the lynch while he still looks clean?
I notice that O has changed his style somewhat. No longer making absolute declarations. I appreciate this, and it seems like a nod to my obvious annoyance at his certitude (Thanks, O). OTOH, does changing your style like this seem scummy? I think it probably doesn't. Just a realization that one way isn't going to get you any further.
Oh and just saw the post about Jorble's math. I too have made the same mistake, viewing the game as an objective outsider. You make a good point though. I now view each of you as more scummy than before!
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 24, 2012, 02:55:24 am »We haven't heard from Frisk in awhile, I noticed. Wonder what he's up to.
I'm surprised you chose to call out Frisk. He posted about 10 hours ago, whereas O and Morgrim have both been silent for about 28...
I guess we have to resign ourselves to Morgrim just being sort of strange (unless we lynch him), but I'm surprised O hasn't said anything in a while, especially since he's the one who's been leading the charge against Robz.
O care to recap or add to your argument for a Robz lynch? Something other than "OMG guys I'm so absolutely totally certain!! Obvscum! Why haven't you lynched him yet?!" would be ideal.
I was about to ask Ashersky why he didn't respond to Eevee's vote for him, but I realized that it didn't really seem like Eevee presented a case other than:
Vote: ashersky, bring chaos to the world. I think ashersky is more likely than robz to be scum
Care to explain your vote, Eevee? I know that there's important information in your summary posts, but could you write a post with just the scum-ashersky case please?
I also wanted to mention your point that:
Quote from: Eevee
People look for patterns that have nothing to do with alignments but rather personalities and posting styles.
I think this is a really important consideration. I've caught myself basing my reads on what I perceive to be people's personalities. I think this is why I at first agreed with ashersky that you seemed to be "flying under the radar." You just seemed so... congenial. Which gave me an implicit town read on you, and then I started thinking about why I read you as town, and was like, well maybe this is a clever scum move... Super WIFOM
I also find myself disagreeing with O partly because his certainty annoys me. I'd guess you guys have already picked up on this. It makes me want to oppose him just because he can't possibly be that certain. Of course I should be considering the logic of his arguments instead, but I find it hard to separate them from him... Damn...
One last thing, and then I'm going to bed:
I'm not going to dig up the exact quotes, but you mention a couple times in your behemoth posts (primarily, the second one) that a post of mine is "hedgy" or "doesn't end up saying much" (something like that, anyway). I'm trying to explain as many of my thoughts as I can, but I don't think I'm ever going to come down on an issue with the certainty that some people (hint: O) exhibit. As I said, I think that sort of certainty is absurd coming from a townie. I'm sorry if it's annoying or unhelpful, but I'm not going to fake conviction. I don't think this is scummy though because I've still managed to open myself up to post-wagon analysis (something, you point out, that you and Frisk have not done). For example, despite my "hedginess," I'll come out looking pretty scummy if Robz flips scum although I wouldn't give a damn because we'd have lynched scum D1!! Anyway, that's all. Bedtime for me
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 23, 2012, 05:39:29 pm »
Oh and your argument, Frisk, is only true if Morgrim flips town, correct? If he flips scum then we can analyze the wagon because the other scum would have wanted to prevent the lynch.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 23, 2012, 05:37:46 pm »Am I right that the mod post is just flavor and doesn't contain any other information (other than vote count)? Not that the flavor isn't appreciated
Anything beside the vote count is flavor and only flavor, at least in this game
Ok. That's what I figured. It just almost seemed like you were suggesting that the alternative to a Robz lynch was an O lynch.
I believe someone (don't remember who) said earlier that a Morgrim lynch gives us less information than another lynch. Could you explain why please?It's because scum don't need to invent a reason to lynch Morgrim. You can't read someone's case against someone when voting for Morgrim and argue with it - because its iron clad. When a confirmed cop outs scum - you have the same problem - the wagons contain less information because there's no BAD reason to vote.
So it's a bad idea to lynch Morgrim because it's such a good idea to lynch Morgrim. Hahaha. This game is ridiculous.
Speaking of Morgrim, he hasn't said much recently. Morgrim! Analyze. Contribute. Convince me we shouldn't lynch you!
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 23, 2012, 05:15:02 pm »
Am I right that the mod post is just flavor and doesn't contain any other information (other than vote count)? Not that the flavor isn't appreciated 
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 23, 2012, 04:06:56 pm »
Thank you Eevee for posting that summary. It's nice having the important points quoted, so I don't have to reread the whole thing. Of course this does give you the opportunity to misdirect us...
I'm liking Robz lynch less and less. I feel like we kind of let O swoop in and steer us towards the lynch he wants. We should be careful not to confuse his certainty with accuracy. I understand what people are saying about a Robz lynch being sort of inevitable, but I think we've still got time to consider other candidates.
Despite what I said about O steering the lynch, I don't think he's scum (probably). It just seems like that's how O plays: He decides whom he wants to lynch and then argues his points belligerently without backing down. Now I personally find this annoying, but I don't think it makes him scum necessarily. Anyone have experience with scum O and/or town O that they'd like to share?
As for when we lynch, I'm a proponent of waiting a little longer, but not doing it at the last minute. I personally will be busy on Monday, then V/LA all of Tuesday. I'd prefer we lynched before Monday, so that I can pack, but that is a RL, not a game concern.
My favorite lynch is still Morgrim, and as he isn't about to be lynched, I'll back that up with vote: Morgrim
I believe someone (don't remember who) said earlier that a Morgrim lynch gives us less information than another lynch. Could you explain why please?
I'm liking Robz lynch less and less. I feel like we kind of let O swoop in and steer us towards the lynch he wants. We should be careful not to confuse his certainty with accuracy. I understand what people are saying about a Robz lynch being sort of inevitable, but I think we've still got time to consider other candidates.
Despite what I said about O steering the lynch, I don't think he's scum (probably). It just seems like that's how O plays: He decides whom he wants to lynch and then argues his points belligerently without backing down. Now I personally find this annoying, but I don't think it makes him scum necessarily. Anyone have experience with scum O and/or town O that they'd like to share?
As for when we lynch, I'm a proponent of waiting a little longer, but not doing it at the last minute. I personally will be busy on Monday, then V/LA all of Tuesday. I'd prefer we lynched before Monday, so that I can pack, but that is a RL, not a game concern.
My favorite lynch is still Morgrim, and as he isn't about to be lynched, I'll back that up with vote: Morgrim
I believe someone (don't remember who) said earlier that a Morgrim lynch gives us less information than another lynch. Could you explain why please?
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 23, 2012, 02:48:25 am »I am not a moderator here, but general rule in all games so far was "no talking about open, running games. Only closed ones."
And closed means ended... Not closed for night...
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 23, 2012, 02:28:08 am »
Oh, and what's the rule on talking about currently running games? Can I say "person Y is behaving like X in game Z, and therefore I infer something about their play style and what it means for our game (which I suppose is actually game X)"
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 23, 2012, 02:23:04 am »(Side note, Robz has claimed VT, which he himself said was an anti-town move on D1 in the first place. Doesn't that mean something?)
He claimed VT at L-1. Morgrim claimed it at L-4 with the only vote on him being himself... Or wait, did he actually claim before he voted (checks back)
Hi, guys, this is Morgrim. I am showing up to post a vote, and if you make a wagon on me I will selfhammer and turn up VT. BTW, I am a VT.
Yeah. So actually he revealed at L-5...
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 22, 2012, 06:27:18 pm »
So I basically agree with everything Frisk just said. That's all for now
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 22, 2012, 04:33:00 pm »I hope I do get lynched. The expression on your faces will be well worth it.
And what would that expression be...? You've claimed VT, so assuming you're telling the truth we'd go "Damn! Another non-scum lynch D1, but at least we didn't lynch a PR." Then we'd analyze the wagon. I understand you're frustrated (honestly, O is starting to frustrate me too), but hoping for your own lynch if you're town is anti-town. That's a Morgrim move.
being hesitant won't look protown after Robz flips scum, FYI.
But we don't know he's scum! Being cautious (or hesitant, as you put it) is pro-town. It would be anti-town to rush into a wagon. Now if we were a few days from deadline, things would be different, but you came out accusing Robz in your first post 28 hours after game start and are acting surprised that we didn't insta-lynch him.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 22, 2012, 04:20:10 pm »+1, well said.seriously do you guys expect a better case to magically appear D1.Not really, but I expect that everyone will change their reads after D1 and not make a game-long vote on someone. I also think that we have plenty of time to mull things over and want to hear Frisk's take
Geo and ashersky, what exactly do you mean by me "staying back"?
Meh. As I said, I think that after reading your posts that it wasn't really true. It just seemed like you hadn't come out with any really forceful opinions, which actually seems more protown than some of the wagon joining we've seen. Come to think of it, that seems very similar to how I've been playing...
Oh, and thanks
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 22, 2012, 04:06:38 pm »seriously do you guys expect a better case to magically appear D1.Not really, but I expect that everyone will change their reads after D1 and not make a game-long vote on someone. I also think that we have plenty of time to mull things over and want to hear Frisk's take
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 22, 2012, 03:55:12 pm »
As I've said before, I agree with Robz that this seems like Morgrim playing Morgrim, but then again I don't have any direct experience with Morgrim in the past, so I'd be interested to hear other veteran's take. Is this Morgrim-as-usual or something else? Frisk?
Looks like Eevee already gave his opinion:
Robz's defense does seem scummy, but O's declaration that he won't vote for anyone else seems a little ridiculous. How on earth can you be so sure? I'd buy a Robz scum, but I'd also buy a frustrated Robz VT. The scum-pair hunting was pretty ridiculous though... What's the probability of finding that. 1 in 36? At this point I wouldn't be adverse to a Robz lynch, but I'm not sold.
I was going to agree with Ashersky on Eevee "flying under the radar," but then I actually reread some of his posts and I think he's been contributing well though staying back a bit. Maybe this is scummy or maybe he's just letting newbies have a chance (if it's the latter, thanks!)
As for Fos, I think I'm the only one who's used it so far (other than the Fos on Galzria...
). I think it can be useful just to indicate you suspect someone when people are skimming. So me putting FoS makes it easier for someone to go "Aha! This is where GeoLib say Morgrim seems suspicious." Probably not that useful, but acronyms are fun!
Looks like Eevee already gave his opinion:
Everyone, I don't think Morgrim is scum. Too inconsistent for that, he is just having fun with us (just like O was with his "force myself to L-1"-plan).
Robz's defense does seem scummy, but O's declaration that he won't vote for anyone else seems a little ridiculous. How on earth can you be so sure? I'd buy a Robz scum, but I'd also buy a frustrated Robz VT. The scum-pair hunting was pretty ridiculous though... What's the probability of finding that. 1 in 36? At this point I wouldn't be adverse to a Robz lynch, but I'm not sold.
I was going to agree with Ashersky on Eevee "flying under the radar," but then I actually reread some of his posts and I think he's been contributing well though staying back a bit. Maybe this is scummy or maybe he's just letting newbies have a chance (if it's the latter, thanks!)
As for Fos, I think I'm the only one who's used it so far (other than the Fos on Galzria...
). I think it can be useful just to indicate you suspect someone when people are skimming. So me putting FoS makes it easier for someone to go "Aha! This is where GeoLib say Morgrim seems suspicious." Probably not that useful, but acronyms are fun!
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 22, 2012, 02:10:26 pm »What if he's just been playing this meta every game just so that when he does draw scum he can still act however he wants and survive...?
Morgrim: King of Meta-gaming
a) he has never survived
b) what if he got a town power role. dying early as one is bad, having to claim it early to survive is bad.
Well so much for that theory. Also, I was about 70% joking
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 22, 2012, 01:47:15 pm »
What if he's just been playing this meta every game just so that when he does draw scum he can still act however he wants and survive...? 
Morgrim: King of Meta-gaming
Morgrim: King of Meta-gaming
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 22, 2012, 01:27:08 pm »Morgrim's likely pre-game convo with scumbuddy:
Morgrim: "I'm going to be batshit insane right from the beginning, and get away with the Morgrim Insanity Defense all game! As long as I stay consistent with all the games where I was town, I won't be suspected! After all, Robz always says that crazy Morgrim is town Morgrim." Then he overplayed things by being too crazy. That wasn't crazy Morgrim, that was Morgrim trying to act like crazy Morgrim.
Now, did O swoop in to dramatically rescue his scumbuddy? Sure looks like that to me.
Your Morgrim analysis was basically the same thing I was thinking. The whole "hmph...grrrr...
" thing seemed a little forced, like Morgrim was acting Morgrim.On the other hand, your accusation of O is sort of OMGUS...
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 22, 2012, 02:16:10 am »I think O's case against Robz seems plausible, so I'd put Robz as slightly scummier than your average 2/9ths. OTOH I think that the single-mindedness with which O is pursuing Robz shows a certainty that I don't think any townie could have. Only scum know exactly who the scum are... So that puts O as slightly scummy in my books as well.
If I'm scum bussing scum (protip: I'm not) then shut up and take your free scumkill in Robz.
If I'm scum tunneling this hard on a townie.. well that's rather terrible scum play.
I didn't mean you were "scum bussing scum," that seems like a terrible scum play D1. I just meant it's odd to me that you can be so sure about a Robz lynch with only the evidence we've got. Not that it's bad evidence. I just don't see how you're so sure.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 22, 2012, 01:58:18 am »
The case for a Morgrim Policy-Lynch as a last resort:
I think that we should keep scumhunting, but that if we don't get anywhere we should policy-lynch Morgrim. The anti-town behavior right off the bat was pretty appalling. I still don't buy O's reasoning that
All this being said, I agree with Eevee that we should hold off on a policy-lynch until we're sure we can't find more probable scum. I just think we should hold a Morgrim lynch as a reserve.
Anyway. Back to scumhunting!
I think O's case against Robz seems plausible, so I'd put Robz as slightly scummier than your average 2/9ths. OTOH I think that the single-mindedness with which O is pursuing Robz shows a certainty that I don't think any townie could have. Only scum know exactly who the scum are... So that puts O as slightly scummy in my books as well.
I'd be interested to hear Frisk's opinion on things, as all I've gleaned from his posts so far is that he agrees that Morgrim's behavior is anti-town. Looks like we might not get this tonight though.
Anyone else got some reads they'd like to share? Jorbles, whom do you think is scum? Cuzz, what about you?
I think that we should keep scumhunting, but that if we don't get anywhere we should policy-lynch Morgrim. The anti-town behavior right off the bat was pretty appalling. I still don't buy O's reasoning that
Morgrim is going to scumslip if he's scum.You guys have all said that Morgrim hasn't played scum before, so how could you know what scumgrim (morscum?) would do? Best case scenario he's scum relying on his old weird-playstyle meta to keep him alive (I'd say odds are about the same as they are for a random person. Maybe a little better). Worst case scenario, he's a PR for some reason lying and claiming VT (odds of this seem low, but you never can tell with Morgrim, I guess). Most likely he's a VT playing very anti-town. As we are most likely going to lynch a VT anyway (both probability and Eevee's grim analysis of f.ds mafia's success in the past suggest this), might as well lynch one who's playing anti-town.
All this being said, I agree with Eevee that we should hold off on a policy-lynch until we're sure we can't find more probable scum. I just think we should hold a Morgrim lynch as a reserve.
Anyway. Back to scumhunting!
I think O's case against Robz seems plausible, so I'd put Robz as slightly scummier than your average 2/9ths. OTOH I think that the single-mindedness with which O is pursuing Robz shows a certainty that I don't think any townie could have. Only scum know exactly who the scum are... So that puts O as slightly scummy in my books as well.
I'd be interested to hear Frisk's opinion on things, as all I've gleaned from his posts so far is that he agrees that Morgrim's behavior is anti-town. Looks like we might not get this tonight though.
Anyone else got some reads they'd like to share? Jorbles, whom do you think is scum? Cuzz, what about you?
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia X - The Death of Donald X. Day 1 Pm for quick topic link
« on: August 21, 2012, 02:57:21 pm »Because Morgrim is going to scumslip if he's scum. And his anti-town behavior abates after D1 anyways, and D1 behavior matters little.
How do you know he'll scumslip if he's scum? I thought you guys said he'd never been scum. Also, being superbly and vocally angry about your VT role still seems kind of scummy to me.
In my experience, much much slower than this.Oh yeah. With all the content I forgot that my vote was still on O. It's fulfilled its sole purpose (getting him to post), so unvote
It didn't rather. All of your refusals to put anyone to L-1 without me forced me to post.
How quickly are we normally supposed to push someone to L-1?
Is this a smaller game than usual. Might that be it? Also, the odd number makes it easier to get to majority (we need 5/9 of people instead of 5/8)