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Messages - pingpongsam

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51
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Night 2
« on: May 21, 2021, 10:56:28 am »
Assumption? That's what math died to tell us.

Right, okay, it's coming together for me now. We know it's not 2 in Mix, Cube, Gloobie, Awac. Chances of 3 seem vanishingly small to me too. Chances of 1 not so much but 2 seems like a  reasonable assumption.

Knowing my alignment I now see the POE to Eddie. I'm still stumped as to why scum would pop chairs, though, knowing it forces a 1v1. That would require some pretty adept commitment to the next day's strategy, I think.

52
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Night 2
« on: May 21, 2021, 10:42:01 am »
Hmm maybe you're both scum then. Unless there's a case for there being 1 or 3 scum in this timeline that I'm missing.

Can you explain the leap you're making from there must be scum off wagon to maybe not if there's a different scum count than 2 per timeline? What information is driving this certainty?

If you're town, then from your perspective there are two options: either Eddie is scum or there's 1 or 3 scum in this timeline.

How is there a necessary 1v1 between me and Eddie in a 2 scum scenario? Why does a different scenario necessarily change that?

The math info: you are the two outside the math wagon that are alive.

PPE: yeah that


So, it's just a simple commitment to the assumption that 2 scum would not have been on the math wagon?

apologies not used to this forum in a long while and btw, it kinda sucks.

53
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Night 2
« on: May 21, 2021, 10:41:08 am »
Hmm maybe you're both scum then. Unless there's a case for there being 1 or 3 scum in this timeline that I'm missing.

Can you explain the leap you're making from there must be scum off wagon to maybe not if there's a different scum count than 2 per timeline? What information is driving this certainty?

So, it's just a simple commitment to the assumption that 2 scum would not have been on the math wagon?

If you're town, then from your perspective there are two options: either Eddie is scum or there's 1 or 3 scum in this timeline.

How is there a necessary 1v1 between me and Eddie in a 2 scum scenario? Why does a different scenario necessarily change that?

The math info: you are the two outside the math wagon that are alive.

PPE: yeah that

54
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Night 2
« on: May 21, 2021, 10:31:23 am »
Hmm maybe you're both scum then. Unless there's a case for there being 1 or 3 scum in this timeline that I'm missing.

Can you explain the leap you're making from there must be scum off wagon to maybe not if there's a different scum count than 2 per timeline? What information is driving this certainty?

If you're town, then from your perspective there are two options: either Eddie is scum or there's 1 or 3 scum in this timeline.

How is there a necessary 1v1 between me and Eddie in a 2 scum scenario? Why does a different scenario necessarily change that?

55
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Night 2
« on: May 21, 2021, 10:24:23 am »
Hmm maybe you're both scum then. Unless there's a case for there being 1 or 3 scum in this timeline that I'm missing.

Can you explain the leap you're making from there must be scum off wagon to maybe not if there's a different scum count than 2 per timeline? What information is driving this certainty?

56
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Night 2
« on: May 21, 2021, 09:55:32 am »
I think the whole nature of the mathdude kamikaze circumstance makes the wagon analysis a complete shot in the dark. What about anyone's position on or off the wagon tells us their potential alignment? It was a town gambit that required town participation to happen. I find it ironic that his name is mathdude and as a very non mathdude myself I still see his number guess as the poorest utility in the event of being wrong. I personally and quite averse to gambling and while I'm probably poor at risk assessment I like to think I can solve basic odds analysis. Of the options 0,1,2 I feel he picked the worst one and that is self evident today. High risk high reward or abysmal payoff.

I guess all that is to say I am already suspicious of wagon analysis and this particular wagon is even more suspect for analysis and anyone trying to leverage it seems suspect to me.

57
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Night 2
« on: May 21, 2021, 09:48:44 am »
It's unfortunate that mathdude did the kamikaze thing for a couple of reasons. The first is that the only substantial interaction analysis I can find is around the number guessing and in general I felt like mathdude himself was the most off the reservation. I am going to reread to see if there was any subtle manipulation I missed or any flip flopping that might be scumtelling. The other unfortunate circumstance is that it leaves us with primarily wagon analysis to try to work out an exile over and wagon analysis is fairly poor with the information we have today and ripe for scum to manipulate around.

58
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Night 2
« on: May 21, 2021, 09:40:42 am »
I just want to say if I'm scum, I'm the dumbest scum ever to play this game.

Make of that what you will.

I feel attacked, haha! I would absolutely do what you did and do what you're doing now. I am not at all implying that you're scum. In fact, I think you are town. I am saying however, it's not dumb scum play unless I am dumb.

59
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« on: May 18, 2021, 01:16:13 pm »
@ash, what's your real reason for tunneling joth? The "he said there are absolutely 2 scum per timeline" argument hasn't made sense to anyone.

This is essentially asking for a claim, tho, let's drop the pretense. I really prefer to trust our town PRs when they are self evident without forcing obvlaims for scum to work around.

It's actually nothing, because ash couldn't do an action N1.

Solid argument, can't disagree there. Wish someone had brought that up earlier, haha. I was literally assuming Joth to be scum because ash made a statement suggesting he had results. My brain didn't fill in that blank, though. Was the rest of my analysis deeply colored by that assumption? Yes. Is it thus wrong? Not necessarily.

60
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« on: May 18, 2021, 11:11:55 am »
@ash, what's your real reason for tunneling joth? The "he said there are absolutely 2 scum per timeline" argument hasn't made sense to anyone.

This is essentially asking for a claim, tho, let's drop the pretense. I really prefer to trust our town PRs when they are self evident without forcing obvlaims for scum to work around.

61
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« on: May 17, 2021, 05:11:57 pm »

Here we are with the absolutes that only scum can have.

...

Quote
Also note the wishy washiness of the "almost" always statement. Instead of saying these are never good for town he's implying that maybe this one right here actually is.

So I guess I'm scummy if I deal in absolutes, but I'm also scummy if I'm "wishy washy"? Huh?

That's disingenuous to what I am saying. I'm saying that the way you are speaking implies hidden knowledge. In the one case you are certain there will be no retaliation if you are flipped. This makes sense if you flip scum. In the other case you could absolutely say that 1v1 is bad for town but here I see slight hedging suggesting that maybe in this case it wouldn't be as bad for town as you would like us to believe.

62
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« on: May 17, 2021, 01:44:55 pm »


Here we are with the absolutes that only scum can have. Why would we flip ash if Joth flips scum. It'd be a ballsy and unnecessary bus so I don't think we'd wager that chance until some investigative results indicated we should.

Quote
If I thought they would, I might consider embracing your 1v1...These 1v1s are basically always bad for town....I'm also not moving my vote.

So basically, if he thought this could work out to his advantage he'd take the bait. Also note the wishy washiness of the "almost" always statement. Instead of saying these are never good for town he's implying that maybe this one right here actually is.


I get what he's trying to say but how he says it seems telling to me. I don't see how anyone reads this as anything but scum. I'd like to see your interpretation of it, though.

I think you're completely misunderstanding this interaction. Joth was saying, "If I flip town, the town won't exile you." He was basically telling ash that he believes that if he accepted the one-on-one and Ash won, ash would find some way to weasel out of actually getting exiled, and given that he wouldn't be eligible to be exiled again until day 4 anyway, he'd have plenty of time to do it. In between we'd had all manner of night actions and things that would present a stronger case, or that scum!ash could spin as reasons not to follow through with town's promise to exile him if joth flipped town.

Well this interpretation is exactly what led me to consider that they might both be scum because it still reeks of knowing Ash's alignment. As town with ash coming in like this the arguments would appear more questioning than diminishing. Also, in the event they are both scum this comes off as a some Ericksonian hypnotism for everyone else.

I see this 1v1 as forcing us to choose at two forks. Fork 1: are either players likely scum? Fork 2: if so which one and why? if not who else is and why?

Call me lazy but I chose yes at Fork 1 and now maybe I am trying to logically rationalize an emotional decision in Fork 2.

63
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« on: May 17, 2021, 01:21:23 pm »
Also, though, only half the players in the game can vote and one of them is Galz, who has been MIA. So it's basically 4 out of 6 needed to exile right now, really out of 5, since joth isn't going to self-vote. That would stall literally any wagon. It's NAI.

Would it stall a wagon on town? If we assume 2 scum then that's only 2 town they need to be on wagon.

I already answered this question with regards to how I personally view the wagon. I suppose at this point it would just be a question about the worthiness of my playstyle. What I would not have done is joined the wagon early with that type of baiting. So I am assuming that if Joth were town then the early voters were as well. I would agree with arguments that no one else would play like me, I guess. This is ash we're talking about, though, and I like to think I can read him better than most. I don't see scum ash doing this. I don't see town ash doing this without supporting evidence to do so which he alluded to.

64
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« on: May 17, 2021, 01:16:22 pm »
I've taken an incredibly innocuous and non-controversial position

Defensive scum posturing intended to make ash's play look scummy I guess? It looks like a pretty straightforward defense of being targeted scum instead of actually, say, scum hunting.

Quote
And no, town absolutely won't actually exile you after I flip.

Here we are with the absolutes that only scum can have. Why would we flip ash if Joth flips scum. It'd be a ballsy and unnecessary bus so I don't think we'd wager that chance until some investigative results indicated we should.

Quote
If I thought they would, I might consider embracing your 1v1...These 1v1s are basically always bad for town....I'm also not moving my vote.

So basically, if he thought this could work out to his advantage he'd take the bait. Also note the wishy washiness of the "almost" always statement. Instead of saying these are never good for town he's implying that maybe this one right here actually is.


I get what he's trying to say but how he says it seems telling to me. I don't see how anyone reads this as anything but scum. I'd like to see your interpretation of it, though.

65
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« on: May 17, 2021, 01:08:17 pm »
Ash's arguments are so much scummier than joth's. I can't believe we're reading the same game.

Only in the context of defense instead of offense.

66
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« on: May 17, 2021, 01:06:00 pm »
I see a sustained stalled E-1 as indicative of scum.

Do you have a shred of evidence for this interpretation of the days events?


Also I edited a post of Joth's that basically took away the window dressing and showed it for the scum it was. I'd say Joth's own arguments are the evidence.

67
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« on: May 17, 2021, 01:03:44 pm »
I see a sustained stalled E-1 as indicative of scum.

Do you have a shred of evidence for this interpretation of the days events?

If I were scum and the wagon was on town I would hammer.

68
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« on: May 17, 2021, 12:55:25 pm »

This ignores the E-1 elephant that's been standing in the room for some time now. Diverting from that is far scummier.
Quote
I literally don’t understand what you’re saying here.

Can you tell me why there's been no hammer or intent to hammer if Joth is town? I see a sustained stalled E-1 as indicative of scum. Picking on the town who put him there is what I am calling scummy.

69
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« on: May 17, 2021, 06:53:35 am »
I'd like to invite joth (and any other players who would like) to continue to try to make a case, any case, that I am not town.  It's super hilarious.  I get why many may not understand why, but it is.

I did make a point that everyone ignored, so I’ll say it again- putting joth to E-1 and saying it was E-2 was scummy. What’s your defense of that?
This ignores the E-1 elephant that's been standing in the room for some time now. Diverting from that is far scummier.

70
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« on: May 14, 2021, 11:23:40 am »
Ash is picking this fight tho. Does scum ash do this? Does scum Joth make this defense by just saying, "unh-uh you must be scum then"?

71
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« on: May 13, 2021, 09:02:29 pm »
Ash used some specific terminology that suggests he may have some info on Joth. Maybe he got it from a QT partner? At any rate, he promised some showdown action so I am awaiting his return fire. He definitely acted as if the other play was a diversion so surely he wouldn't be diverting things himself?

72
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« on: May 13, 2021, 04:00:31 pm »
I was finding joth a bit scummy on day 1. He seems more like town joth to me now, but I don't feel strongly enough about that to have my alignment tied to his the way ash is proposing. That being said, gun to my head, if you asked me who is acting scummier right now, I'd say ash. But I also think its totally possible they are both just town with different perspectives.

Like, does scum ash get combative like this? I've seen town ash do it. Seems like a big gamble to me, like what's the benefit? If ash is scum here, what's his ideal outcome? That we reject his plan but still give him townpoints for having it? That we exile joth then don't follow through when he flips town?

The thought occurs to me that they're both scum. If this blows over it's successful distancing. If it doesn't it's super successful distancing.

73
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« on: May 13, 2021, 03:59:56 pm »
How do we have this little activity in a game where 14 people are alive?

Only 7 are really playing, and if you look at the roster, I'm the most active player, and I'm busy for this day.

The joth vs ash """conflict""" is really bad, but I'm not exactly opposed to a joth flip either.

The thought occurs to me that they're both scum. If this blows over it's successful distancing. If it doesn't it's super successful distancing.

I was finding joth a bit scummy on day 1. He seems more like town joth to me now, but I don't feel strongly enough about that to have my alignment tied to his the way ash is proposing. That being said, gun to my head, if you asked me who is acting scummier right now, I'd say ash. But I also think its totally possible they are both just town with different perspectives.

Like, does scum ash get combative like this? I've seen town ash do it. Seems like a big gamble to me, like what's the benefit? If ash is scum here, what's his ideal outcome? That we reject his plan but still give him townpoints for having it? That we exile joth then don't follow through when he flips town?

74
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« on: May 13, 2021, 10:07:17 am »
I've taken an incredibly innocuous and non-controversial position

Quote
And no, town absolutely won't actually exile you after I flip.


Quote
If I thought they would, I might consider embracing your 1v1...These 1v1s are basically always bad for town....I'm also not moving my vote.

All things scum says and does.

He drew, he fired, he missed.

Vote: Joth

75
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM 58: Memento Mafia - Day 2
« on: May 13, 2021, 08:27:49 am »
This right here is the ash I paid to see. I am still a little hesitant on the we must take out B if A doesn't flip scum. There's a few reasons for that but I will say that I think ash has got a plan, here.

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