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**Game Reports / Re: I Need To Rant**

« **on:**March 10, 2014, 02:47:47 pm »

Shanty Town won't usually help from a draw perspective, so they can't be ignored in computing the odds. For my estimation, I'm just considering the odds of not getting a Scrying Pool in your hand, drawing from 19 cards (the deck minus the cantrip Grand Markets). This is the same as silverspawn's computation, but with 5 added to the numerators and denominators, and gives about 17%. The 5 Shanty Towns are needed for the +actions, but they can be a bit of a liability in drawing your deck.

Given that you DO have a Scrying Pool in your last hand, you get especially screwed by not drawing another SP in your next 5 cards. Your 4 remaining SPs all happen to be beneath the potion - probably somewhere around a 5-10% chance.

Given that you DO have a Scrying Pool in your last hand, you get especially screwed by not drawing another SP in your next 5 cards. Your 4 remaining SPs all happen to be beneath the potion - probably somewhere around a 5-10% chance.