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Messages - ashersky

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1
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« on: Today at 10:55:17 am »
5 wagons, zero overlap. That’s something.

2
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« on: Today at 08:51:24 am »
Still crazy swamped this week, basically until Friday night my time. When is deadline?

I am reading any chance I get.

3
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 24, 2019, 10:23:33 am »
Hey all, sorry for only flitting in and out.  I have a huge thing on Friday for which I must prepare which is taking most of my attention and energy. I like the thinking coming out of some nice analysis posts. Of the wagons, I find joth’s the worst, and wonder if that’s not the easy one to pile on.

My lynch choices are probably MiX and pubby right now?  I admit to not knowing them as well as some vets (well, MiX is always just an enigma, which I assume is on purpose for scum reasons).

4
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 24, 2019, 03:39:06 am »
Joth’s efforts basically make him town for me at this point, so I trust his reads, whether correct or not, to be honest.

I think MiX is the wild card that’s messing with my reads the most.

5
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 24, 2019, 03:37:39 am »
Okay, as everyone has posted now, I think we can safely assume 3rd party chose Reporter.

No extra kills makes SK so highly unlikely that I’m just not considering it.
A Survivor would have claimed and won with scum by forcing a no lynch (survivor + traitor claim = 5 votes).
A second traitor would have claimed as in the survivor scenario.

The only issue I can see with this analysis is if the survivor prefers “trying to win with town” over “guaranteed win with mafia.”  In that case, it seems to me that claiming and stating as such would be a big boon to us.

Do folks agree that the survivor amongst EFHW, Datswan, and I should claim and pick a side?  Again, if they were against us, they would have already claimed anyway, so I see no downside (they can’t be killed at night so long as the other neighbors are alive) for anyone.

So I have this thing regarding the survivor claims and skum wins thing. I don't really know how to word it super well, but here it goes. Scenario:
Let's say you are a Skum player, and then a non-Skum player comes out today at this point and claims to be the Survivor.

From a skum players POV... I mean... they are gonna be suspicious right? I don't even know what exactly they could be suspicious about.

I am throwing around things in my head like "the claimed survivor could be a Traitor" but that would make no sense unless they somehow knew there were 2 Traitors, which can't happen... or like "A random VT could do it to just try to get Skum to out themselves" but then of course they could just do the same plan and if there IS a Survivor or a Traitor... skum would still win.

So all in all... I doubt at this point that skum would just all "raise their hands" if someone claimed Traitor or Survivor. IDK what I think they would do, but at a minimum I think they would hold one identity back.

Which leads me into the thought of the Survivor claiming.... If there is ever a point where a Survivor thought they were a 100% lock on a win with Skum -I imagine they would take it. This is for sure not a 100% lock. I am not going to speak of the defense that town could play, and neither should anyone else... but if you have not considered it... you should give it a moment's thought.

I also think that given the third party would have to pick Survivor over Traitor, that if there is a Survivor, they would prefer to win with Town. That may be naive, but it is my opinion.

However, because a Survivor's wincon is to BE ALIVE, and not to have a certain faction end up winning... I agree with ashes assessment of the situation in regards to claiming, because it helps Town. However, if me, Ash, or EFHW are a survivor... they don't really care if it helps town right now. So I don't think we will get a claim whether or not there is a Survivor.


@ Ashes - not trying to knock your plan, just pointing a thought out.

Thanks for the thoughtful response. I’m not sure about your “town defense” against a survivor plan, though. You don’t want to make it public, but if you don’t vocalize the threat, not sure it works.

For example, if we say “we will lynch the survivor if they claim and go with scum...” it doesn’t work unless scum participates. I mean, maybe they do since not voting is just giving themselves away, but at that point it is a full scum claim away from just forcing survivor to win with them.

I don’t see any other “defense” against them, given we have no other real power.

A non-claimed survivor or the reporter are our only hopes, not considering a claimed town-only SS style survivor, which I doubt would exist, so I think we just go with that and hope for the best?

I for one would love to see a VT claim traitor to see if it works, by the way.

6
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 23, 2019, 10:11:04 am »
(Note: per my own analysis I don’t actually think there is a survivor.)

7
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 23, 2019, 10:09:36 am »
Okay, as everyone has posted now, I think we can safely assume 3rd party chose Reporter.

No extra kills makes SK so highly unlikely that I’m just not considering it.
A Survivor would have claimed and won with scum by forcing a no lynch (survivor + traitor claim = 5 votes).
A second traitor would have claimed as in the survivor scenario.

The only issue I can see with this analysis is if the survivor prefers “trying to win with town” over “guaranteed win with mafia.”  In that case, it seems to me that claiming and stating as such would be a big boon to us.

Do folks agree that the survivor amongst EFHW, Datswan, and I should claim and pick a side?  Again, if they were against us, they would have already claimed anyway, so I see no downside (they can’t be killed at night so long as the other neighbors are alive) for anyone.

8
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 22, 2019, 10:45:15 am »
Honestly, if the half of this town that isn't scum doesn't show up and start doing some work soon, I'm out. I'm certainly not going to spend another hour on a day 2 reread if this is the thanks I get.
Day is young. Off hand,  lazy pps seems more likely than scum pps.

We as a community appear to have two modes: “The day is young” and “oh shit the deadline”

I laughed out loud at this.

9
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 22, 2019, 10:44:56 am »
Sorry, had a speech contest today that I have been prepping for for weeks so I had less free time available.  I skimmed but did not give joth’s posts enough attention. I should be able to do that on Sunday.

In the meantime, I feel like voting is dangerous.  There has been talk of daychat being possible, planned team quick lynched are a thing. So I feel like even L-2 or 3 is dangerous, although long stretches at that level would highly suggest a scum wagon.


10
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 21, 2019, 10:33:20 am »
So the game is still going. That might mean there's only four scum. Or it might mean there are five, but the faust is accounting for the possibility of mafia and traitor voting for each other because of imperfect knowledge.

Either way, I'm kinda glad silver's gone because it's going to make for a very informative re-read. I was really expecting to come into today with the same WIFOM I was facing yesterday, but it looks like it's going to be a different WIFOM.

Aren’t we guaranteed to be at only 4 scum?  If third party chose mafia, it’s 5v5 so town is endgamed. Town can’t lynch anyone without a scum vote, so game over.

It’s bleak, but there’s still a chance.

11
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 19, 2019, 10:09:15 am »
EFHW was here, left her vote on Mix.  Not very useful...

12
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 19, 2019, 10:08:36 am »
2 minutes to if it's going to happen.  Would need PPS and Glooble.

13
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 19, 2019, 10:08:05 am »
vote: mcmc

14
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 19, 2019, 07:49:04 am »
Ashes - Glooble or Mix if you had to pick?

MiX for sure.

15
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 19, 2019, 07:48:45 am »
vote: silverspawn from the current wagons.

I originally pushed mcmc, but his terrible non-response just doesn't strike me as a possible move from scum!mcmc, who would try harder.  I mean, he could have thought of that and done it on purpose, but that seems...tough.

I'm around until deadline, I believe.

16
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 19, 2019, 05:14:53 am »
I will be around close to deadline, but maybe not quite at deadline. But I’m inclined to agree with EFHW about no lynch being preferable to a mislynch. Which is awkward because I think EFHW is scum.



What do you think we will gain with no lynch? All that happens is someone dies at scum's request. There's barely any PRs and I bet only 1 will get information tonight, so why wait?

And we’re back to vote: MiX

How do you know how many PRs there are?

Your scum read (EFHW) is voting there, FYI.  Do you think there's bussing?

17
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 19, 2019, 02:44:41 am »
I will be around up to deadline, on and off.

18
Forum Games / Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (back on)
« on: June 18, 2019, 11:16:05 am »
All Role PMs are done.  Over a year later, but done.

19
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 18, 2019, 11:15:34 am »
Why are we not talking about the fact that, if we're in a 5-scum situation, we literally need every town player to vote as a block to hit scum without bussing? Conversely, scum only needs two townies to be on a wagon on town together before they can all jump on it. And if they picked daychat, then 3/5 of them can coordinate a quick hammer. Geeze, this setup is rough. I don't think I've been fully comprehending what a rough spot we're in. And if we mislynch today, we could be at 5 town-5 scum tomorrow, so we might be in MyLo right now.

It's been mentioned.  No one seems worried.

20
Forum Games / Re: RMM48: Falling Skies Mafia (back on)
« on: June 18, 2019, 10:48:47 am »
Extremely advanced? You think I'll be okay?  If so /in

Yes, I think you'll be okay.  Just read everything at least twice and ask the mod as many questions as needed.

21
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 18, 2019, 10:25:14 am »
If it was an appeal to emotion, it clearly worked, since you seemed to have been moved by it.  Don't blame your emotional fickleness on me, though.

(Ironically, or not, your appeal to emotion attack is, in an of itself, an appeal to emotion attack.  So it's at least a well-played meta joke, which I can appreciate.)

(A second ironic point, of course, is joth's propensity for over-the-top emotional exasperation at the play of certain players, or the actions and words of others.  See basically any previous game with MiX for examples.)

22
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 18, 2019, 03:01:32 am »
I see only upsides to bringing this out, if it hasn't been already:

The Hood randomized who would carry out the vig shot by all of us selecting "self targets Eddie" after Eddie was agreed upon.

We do not know who actually carried out the shot.

You might have mentioned whose idea the randomization was. Objectively it was a towny idea, given we all equally shared the risk.

23
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 17, 2019, 10:18:43 pm »
I find the stance that multiple players are taking on the "protecting PRs" argument perplexing.

The setup is lopsided against town if we think of this in a vanilla fashion (goons vs. VTs).  Scum has 4-5 players with no way of being outed (anymore).  Our literal only hope is for a PGO to pick one off for us, if we even got a PGO.  Even then, scum could have gotten a PGO too and use that against us.

Outed neighbors are VTs with a QT.  The argument can be made (and was made) that if scum is in the neighborhood, they already know this, so there's no harm in publicly announcing it.  The counterargument was made that there was also a chance scum is not in the neighborhood, and claiming provided them that information separately.

I don't really care so much about it being known that I, specifically, am a neighbor.  I am somewhat annoyed that in the case that both of you are town, EFHW unwittingly told scum information they wanted, either to not target us to PR hunt or to definitely target us to PGO dodge.

The phrase "protect the PRs" doesn't necessarily mean keep them from being killed.  It just means keep their identity as secret as possible, including by limiting POE.  Now, three scum know to hunt from a limited number of town players and who are safe to kill.  In a game that may possibly be decided tonight, that's a terrible, terrible thing.

So yes, I argued against claiming last night, and continue to argue that I was 10000000% correct.  It's all moot, though, because players will do what they want, based on their own win conditions and beliefs.

She was completely right about one thing -- the neighborhood may have felt like a place of camaraderie, but it definitely turned out not to be.

24
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 17, 2019, 10:31:48 am »
Ash, can you say why Glooble got an upgrade?

Recent posts felt towny.  Glooble and I aren't exactly the best match (thinking back on our first few games together), but I think we've sort of figured each other out at this point.  Glooble may disagree?

I think I felt like his reactions were genuine, which was enough to bump him up.

No popsquiz from you? (or anyone else?)

25
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 17, 2019, 10:30:23 am »
Ok but, does scum actually ever do this? I feel like I am very susceptible to suspecting that a town person who is leading is scum... but I can’t recall ever actually seeing it. IRL, scum is almost always sitting back and playing reactively, since it’s so hard to know how town will react to a claiming plan.

Yes, I do it all the time.  At least, I used to.  So does gkrieg, so does faust, I'm sure a few others.


And furthermore, “claim pushing is scummy” isn’t an argument I’d expect from town!ash who is usually such a grounded realist when I suggest that scum is doing a crazy gambit. So that post really makes me want to vote: ash.

I still think that if there turns out to be scum in the neighborhood I want to lynch MiX next.

What are you talking about?  Grounded realist?  What?

I'm literally the scum doing the crazy gambit every game.  And claim pushing is scummy this game because it appears to be a negative utility move for town.  Even SS has agreed that claiming should be put off for now.  He basically backed off his plan when he didn't get enough traction.  That's also the move scum would pull there (as would town).

I'm honestly just confused by you here.  I'd say it was scummy if it made any sense, but it doesn't.  So I guess it's not?

Humor me. Show me some games where scum actually came out trying to lead town and pushing for a mass claim. Bonus points if it actually worked.

It’s possible I’m remembering things wrong, but my sense of you Ash is a person who has been around the block and knows the difference between scummy things and things actual scum does. But maybe I’m the one whose sense of this is wrong.

Your question (I thought) was if scum ever came out and lead town actively, which I strongly believe happens often.  As to what extent leading is happening is probably a subjective opinion, there may not be consensus on which games are where, but I'm guessing many of my scum performances, especially MVP ones, would have examples of folks just doing what I suggest.

As for me as a person, I probably do come off as a grouchy old veteran more often than necessary.  Maybe we just disagree on this point regarding what scum would do vs. what is a scummy thing.  Regarding SS and his claiming plan, I was providing a possible scum narrative there.  I don't think there's much in the way of scum reads on him, which may or may not be dangerous.  (My gut actually has me feeling like he might be third party, given that one post by him.)  He definitely could be town, in the same way that EFHW could be scum outing the hood (for some reason) or town doing what she felt is best (which is where I fall).  I'm just keeping a wary eye out, as scum!SS has burned me before.

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