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Messages - SpaceAnemone

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1
I won't vote immediately, just in case anyone else has things they want to say. Shall I post up a coloured-in vote count if I get the chance tomorrow night?

Sleep time now for me!

2
I should do a re-read of gkrieg.

...

That didn't take nearly as long as I'd feared :-) I'm happy to vote here for today. His early reads lists conveniently put chairs in the townie bucket, and didn't directly mention Swan. Then later on there were one too many mentions of how he didn't know exactly what was going on in the game/who'd died, which sounds like someone trying to make us all think they didn't have access to the scum QT and its secrets.

3
As for ADK, I wasn't super-convinced of the ADK-as-lynchee theory when I initially got my vote counter up and running, because Joseph's votes were all over the place. I guess the post at #506, where he says he had his own reasons for voting ADK, could be read as a breadcrumb (why crumb that role at all?), but mostly just seem to be a knee-jerk defense in response being accused of sheeping faust.

4
Just vote gkrieg!

I would rather have Spaceís analysis now, in case Gkrieg flips town and then Space dies at night.

I've re-read almost the first half of MiX's posts.. there are just too many, and I'm just too tired to continue any more.

However, my conclusion is still that he's not likely to be scum. Any further hedging I could do on that seems to be motivated by the desire to save face just on the off-chance he's scum playing really well, because it would just feel embarrassing if he flips that way. I do think he's really likely to be town, though!

5
MiX was voting for chairs and the end of D3, as well as challenging him D4. He also headed the Swan wagon on D2, and didn't flinch after the wagon started growing, right up to Swan getting lynched. So that seems an unlikely set of scum actions.

This is me just looking at the voting states for the moment.. I've updated my lists, though not in a way that will let me post them to the thread in a coloured-in format.. I might need some time tomorrow for that, and also for the full targeted re-read of MiX.

My feelings for the moment are that gkrieg is the top pick, followed by MiX, followed by ADK.

6
Request prod on Space.

Sorry.. I'm here! Work got busy, and I have no free weekends to use in compensation. I'm really sorry for my absences! :-(

7
Mods: may I post a coloured-in voting-history log?

EFHW asked for voting records at the end of D3, but the game had hit the night phase before I caught up.

8
Was the main part of the argument for ADK being town that someone thought that Joseph was voting there a lot?

Here's the list of Joseph's votes, in case it's helpful in picking out a VT:

Votes "Space" at 20.
Votes "ADK" at 106.
Votes "chairs" at 165.
Votes "galz" at 364.
Votes "joth" at 420.
Votes "ADK" at 438.
Votes "mix" at 485.
Votes "ADK" at 529.
Votes "joth" at 590.

That's two joth votes, three ADK votes. His assorted other votes include me and galz, who are non-VTs (or at least, I abbreviate to VT, but the V is not vanilla!), so I don't think it says much about the assumed innocence of anyone else on that list, like chairs or MiX. Of the currently-alive people, the missing one is gkrieg, so I guess he's probably not the lynchee, but that's probably not terribly significant.

9
My brain's a little dead rn Galz, so help me parse this: If [gkrieg/chairs/MiX] is scum and ADK is town, then scum's only hope is to get ADK mislynched, so [gkrieg/chairs/MiX] should be pushing back against the townread on ADK.

But if ADK is scum, then the townread is a godsend and scum would love to lock it in.

This makes a lot of sense. And if this were a normal day it would be a great time to start an ADK wagon, but of course our choice is now between MiX and chairs, whether we like it or not. So the question is, does the ADK question affect the MiX/chairs question. Is one of them more or less likely to be ADK's partner?

I guess the utility in talking about this stuff now is that there are more townies and ICs alive right now than there are likely to be tomorrow after a NK.

On a related note, sorry I'm being such an absent IC right now! I'll try to sink in half an hour of reading and stuff at the moment, then tomorrow night may be sparse, and Saturday night is Eurovision :-P

10
Hereís the thing: chairs and gkrieg are acting nothing like I would expect scum to be acting at this point in this situation. MiX has been acting exactly how Iíd expect scum to act. Thatís why o want to lynch him. Iíll take reads over PoE any day of the week.

Okay, but recall that town!MiX also acts like people expect scum to act. The real question here is whether scum!MiX is more likely than town!MiX to be behaving that way.

11
@Chairs, could you please remind me of some townie things you've done this game so far?

12
Sorry I disappeared at the end of D3! I had such an awesome weekend of music things and people-hosting that I kind of failed to check in at all until after the hammer...
I'm starting to get jealous of your awesome social life!

Come visit Oxford! It's full of lovely smart people and fun stuff :-)

OTOH, now I'm ridiculously tired, and also nursing a cold/sore throat/ear ache because people are germy creatures...

13
Sorry I disappeared at the end of D3! I had such an awesome weekend of music things and people-hosting that I kind of failed to check in at all until after the hammer...

14
Forum Games / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Signups open!)
« on: May 13, 2019, 07:16:34 am »
/tag

I'd like to play, but let's see if my free time ever re-materialises before committing to anything...

15
I'm slightly VLA till Monday at this point, which is annoying because I need to do some re-reading to feel confident about which side of the emerging Glooble-Mix divide I fall into.

I say "slightly" because I'm not going anywhere, I'm just hosting a music-arranging weekend at my house for some friends, so my computer will probably be busy being a music notating device rather than a thing I can read mafia on.

16
I'm so disappointed Space wasn't scum.

Sorry! :-P At least you've saved me from having to take the vig shot if I got lynched... I was quite worried about how likely I might be to get that call wrong!

17
Yes, I'm the vengeful townie. I'm so disappointed that gkrieg hasn't tried to get me lynched again this game, because it had seemed like the perfect role for me given my history.

While I didn't breadcrumb the role explicitly, my question about Lyncher Doctor in D1 were motivated by the fact that I knew that role had to appear in this game, because it was in the same bucket as mine.

18
Sorry for my unannounced VLA! It was a holiday here in the UK yesterday, and I ended up not being near my computer all day, which was unexpected and lots of fun. I haven't had a chance to read anything posted since my last comment, but I'll catch up over the course of today when I can.

19
I don't think this is as damning as you seem to think it is, but I do accept there's a contradiction. I agree with faust that it's probably just Swan not thinking through everything, though.

If all of his second list is town, then there are probably 3 full mafia members in the first list (if other assumptions about Joth etc being townie hold), so that part of the statement holds.

Alternatively, we're in a situation where Galz lied about being town promoter, in which case he's on team evil, so if he's mafia promoter or mafia goon, then there's at most one full mafia member in the first list, plus quite probably the traitor (given the same assumptions about the second list being townie). So stated correctly, if he's counting the traitor as "not skum" then he ought to have said 1-3/8, not just 2 or 3/8. I think it's kind of a technicality.

Note: I'm not arguing in this post that anyone on the second list (besides faust) is conf!town, I'm just stating the assumptions that seem to have been present in Swan's reasoning when he made that statement.


Almost correct: if Galz was traitor, there would in fact be 2 scum, but it couldn't be "possible Traitor". Overall it's a weak point that just built up on top of the many many many others. I don't know, I recall Swan as someone who (eventually) understands setups better than this.

Sure, 2 is included in my 1-3 count for exactly that reason.

What are you referring to when you're quoting "possible Traitor" like that?

20
1) All the skum is within [Ari, Swan, Chairs, ADK, GK, Glooble, Space, EFHW]... which is either 2/8 or 3/8
2) Some amount of skum is within the same pool, and another is within [Joth, Mix, Galz, faust]

Why is it either 2/8 or 3/8?

Just separating the traitor out. Technically it is 3/8 either way.

Hold on, I just saw a contradiction here. It is impossible for the Traitor to lie there AND to be 2 scum there. I believe this mistake comes more from scum that absolutely know there IS no Traitor. How do you explain this Swan?

I don't think this is as damning as you seem to think it is, but I do accept there's a contradiction. I agree with faust that it's probably just Swan not thinking through everything, though.

If all of his second list is town, then there are probably 3 full mafia members in the first list (if other assumptions about Joth etc being townie hold), so that part of the statement holds.

Alternatively, we're in a situation where Galz lied about being town promoter, in which case he's on team evil, so if he's mafia promoter or mafia goon, then there's at most one full mafia member in the first list, plus quite probably the traitor (given the same assumptions about the second list being townie). So stated correctly, if he's counting the traitor as "not skum" then he ought to have said 1-3/8, not just 2 or 3/8. I think it's kind of a technicality.

Note: I'm not arguing in this post that anyone on the second list (besides faust) is conf!town, I'm just stating the assumptions that seem to have been present in Swan's reasoning when he made that statement.

21
We should massclaim.

I'm serious. I was looking at the setup and we can get fantastic PoE.

What I'm thinking is:
-bodyguard claims (who cares, they're bodyguard, dying to protect a PR is the point of the role anyway)
-if psychologist has an innocent result from last night (guaranteed to be innocent at this point) that is NOT one of the claimed PRs, they claim with that result
-if psychologist claims, vengeful townie claims

Scum can't counter or fakeclaim this early because we just catch them. If we accept galz's claim (I do), we have six ICs out of 12 people. That leaves 3 scum in 6 people. If we can determine the towniness of just one person in that group, we win

This is an interesting thought, though I do think it's dangerous to assume Galz is definitely town, because I think if he's a goon or the traitor there are strong reasons for him to claim promoter. That means the chance of him being scum is non-negligible, though fwiw I think I'm townreading him.

Anyway, we still might get great PoE if we combine the claims with the existing strong hunches about which players are likely not to be scum with one another, so it still might be a strong idea. For the 12 living players in the game, we could have the Tracker, Vengeful Townie, Psychologist, Bodyguard, and a hoped-for "cannot kill" person from the Psychologist, which is 5 guaranteed townies. We'd lose most of the rest of the PR shots because scum would know exactly who to pick off, though it'll take a few nights to kill them all. If some of the people we have good ideas about the interactions between (e.g. Mix, Galz, Joth and faust, mostly) are in the non-IC'd set, I think it would be possible to narrow the lynchpool quite a lot.

OTOH, maybe we're just saying that we feel like we're already in a reasonably strong position here. Is it even better if we don't force the PRs to claim all at once, let them keep using their PRs for the good of town, and just scum-hunt as usual but avoid lynching anyone who claims a PR unless it's counterclaimed?

22
1) Joth waiting for a claim is weird. There is no world in which there is a CC prior to a target being selected.

Really? I think if faust is scum then a townie tracker speaks up immediately because they know faust is conf!scum, and they have to ensure that faust is the one to go into the 1v1 with Joth, because what better evidence can you ever get that someone is scum than them claiming your own role?

I do think that faust is basically IC, assuming everyone has checked into the thread at least once since he claimed (which I haven't yet checked).

23
Josephís slim was about knowing there was a traitor though. Lyncher Doctor doesnít have that information any more than a VT does. Itís in a different quadrant.

He may have made a slip around traitor, but the one I'm specifically referring to is the one faust pointed out after Joseph's claim, after which Joseph offered a pretty poor defense:

Most of all I don't buy that you got this role and subsequently believed that only one of the quadrants is chosen, because then there wouldn't be an option for 2 bodyguards.
That's true, if I'd read my role PM correctly
I saw bodyguard and was like "yh, I know what that does, cool", and missed the 2 bodyguard thing. It's a crap defence but it's true

I think it was very reasonable to think something fishy was going on with Joseph after this. I'd hoped he was scum fake-claiming, but I'll take a non-townie roll over a town lynch.

Why didn't you explain this at the end of day 1?

Why did it need even more explaining than that at the time? I'm only re-posting it now to clarify which thing I was referring to, since it looks like Glooble missed it the first time round.

24
Then today starts, and neither faust nor space makes any effort to make a pre-challenge lynch happen, to delay my challenge, or even to remind us of the option. Weird, no?

Until the past hour or so, last night was the only time I'd checked in since the start of D2 because my day yesterday was busy, and someone else had already mentioned it. So not that weird.

25
Josephís slim was about knowing there was a traitor though. Lyncher Doctor doesnít have that information any more than a VT does. Itís in a different quadrant.

He may have made a slip around traitor, but the one I'm specifically referring to is the one faust pointed out after Joseph's claim, after which Joseph offered a pretty poor defense:

Most of all I don't buy that you got this role and subsequently believed that only one of the quadrants is chosen, because then there wouldn't be an option for 2 bodyguards.
That's true, if I'd read my role PM correctly
I saw bodyguard and was like "yh, I know what that does, cool", and missed the 2 bodyguard thing. It's a crap defence but it's true

I think it was very reasonable to think something fishy was going on with Joseph after this. I'd hoped he was scum fake-claiming, but I'll take a non-townie roll over a town lynch.

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