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« **on:** September 05, 2020, 12:57:53 pm »
we also know that **neither MiX or scola has a protective role, unless that role is the CPR doctor.**

so here's a pretty good strategy:

today we chop EFHW. EFHW will flip either town or carrier.

**if EFHW flips town**, then both MiX and Straw target scola, everyone else do nothing. Scola will either: live through the night, flip town, or flip carrier.

if scola lives through the night, that means one of two things. EITHER both MiX and Straw are town or one of them is a wolf and the other is the CPR doctor. there is no other way for scola to live through the night here. We can eliminate the MiX/Straw are both town option, because in that case, we have cleared everyone but cayvie, and there's no one left to be my partner. So we know that one of MiX/Straw is the CPR doctor and the other is a carrier. We also know that scola is town, unless we think that carriers tried to kill themselves n1. **(is it even legal for carriers to self-target?)** so this means that cayvie is a wolf. we chop cayvie, and then whichever of MiX/Straw is the CPR doctor shoots the other one at night. game over. unless the carriers kill the CPR doc at night, in which case we know that the one who is still alive between MiX/Straw is the remaining carrier, and chop them the next day.

if scola flips town, that means the team is either cayvie/MiX or cayvie/Straw and we tricked you. I know this isn't the case, but you don't.

if scola flips carrier, then we know the team is either scola/Straw or scola/MiX, which means that (if both Mix and Straw are alive tomorrow), that we can no-test and then whichever of them is the CPR/quack shoots the other and wins. and if one of them is dead, then we can chop the other and win.

**if EFHW flips carrier**

then hooray! in this scenario, night actions are: MiX targets cayvie, Straw targets scola, everyone else does nothing.

if either cayvie or scola flips carrier, then hooray, we have won the game.

if both cayvie and scola flip town, then we know that the team is either MiX/EFHW or Straw/EFHW, and the carriers used their kill on one of cayvie/scola. in this scenario, we no test, and then whichever is the CPR/quack between MiX and Straw targets the other at night, winning the game.

if both cayvie and scola survive, then, uh... this means that one of MiX/Straw is the CPR doctor and the other is the remaining carrier, and the carrier decided to target the person that the other was targeting. in which case, yet again, we have them kill each other at night and solve the game.

if cayvie flips town and scola survives, then: was there another death? if yes, then we know that Straw or Scola is the remaining carrier. if the team is EFHW/Scola there's only one possible permutation: the one where Swowl was weak, Straw is naive, Dylan was vig1, Mix is vig2, Awaclus is nurse, cayvie is doc, and joth was jailkeeper. if the team is EFHW/Straw, there's a lot more permutations--it's much more likely. chop Straw and probably win, like 90%. if i'm the only death, then this scenario basically means that mafia decided to no-kill (or carrier!scola tried to commit suicide, if that's even possible--and if this is what happened, he risked a 50/50 shot at losing the game on the spot, gambling that Straw was the CPR doctor and not the quack). so either Straw or scola is the remaining mafia, and MiX is a vig. We chop one, MiX shoots the other at night, if necessary, town wins.

if scola flips town and cayvie survives, then: follow the same logic as above.

this is a pretty darn good plan, from my perspective. feel free to ask questions. and post concerns.