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Messages - markus

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1
The Peasant-Page board with Bridge is not so much about trashing your opponent's Provinces, but who is the first to play a bunch of Bridges. And Champion is faster than Teacher, so I think that will be a clear >90%.

The first Butcher-Altar board doesn't want to use Leprechaun as a Gold gainer but Dismantle. I'm convinced Dismantle would win a judgement match vs Leprechaun there.

2
Tournaments and Events / Re: Cage Match Tournament #2: Empires
« on: July 14, 2018, 08:07:27 am »
markus 3 - 1 dornado

m starts and wins 16358797
d starts and wins 16358995
m starts and wins 16359196
d starts, m wins 16359454

Gladiator/Fortune was only gained in the last one. Triumphal Arch probably most relevant in the third game.

3
My "pinning down" is +/-2 standard deviations.

4
This leads to my constructive proposal for how to measure card strength, taken from this thread: If two very good (and similarly good) players play a match where they are and aren't allowed to gain a card, respectively, how big of an advantage will the player who can gain the card have.

I think the problem is simply the sample size. It's obvious that having access to the card is better than not, so it's all about how much better it is. If you want to pin that down to an interval of length 0.1 (e.g. 55%-65% win rate), you need about 400 games. And even that would not be very precise, so you probably want more than 1,000 games.

5
Tournaments and Events / Re: Cage Match Tournament #2: Empires
« on: July 02, 2018, 08:06:02 am »
/in markus

6
Dominion Articles / Re: Contraband
« on: June 18, 2018, 04:08:41 am »
I would mention that it's not a good idea to get it as an intermediate step towards Gold on a board where your economy comes from Treasures. In that case it's easy for your opponent to deny that by blocking Gold.

7
Dominion Online at Shuffle iT / Re: eight Coppers?
« on: June 10, 2018, 05:10:03 am »
It seems that your first Bonfire play only trashed 1 Copper from your deck, even though the log says that it trashed 2.
Stef is going to look into that soon.

8
Dominion Articles / Re: Ghost Town
« on: June 09, 2018, 07:18:16 pm »
You only say that it "feels like" Hireling, but if you want to keep playing those Ghost Towns that is not true in the literal sense. As soon as you draw the Ghost Town that you want to play this turn, you are back to the same effective number of cards in hand as if it was Village.
It still has the feel of Hireling, because you only need to find your draw card in the first 6 cards, for example.

And on your last turn of the game, you need not draw up all those Ghost Towns or you can discard them to sifters. In that sense, I like thinking about the gaining to hand and drawing at the start of turn as a borrowed draw.

9
Dominion League / Re: Season 28 - Standings
« on: June 04, 2018, 05:47:26 pm »
Like last season I'm calculating forecasts of the league that simulate the outstanding games based on your rating. The results can be found here. They show the expected number of points after the season and the probability of finishing 1st to 6th for each player. (A-Division accounts for the champion match when it comes to the win probability but not for the expected points.)

To show the evolution over time, there are graphs for each division. They show the expected points for each player after each result that has been reported.
There are also graphs for each player. They show the probability of finishing 1st to 6th, calculated after each day of the season. They'll become more exciting once a few games have been played out.

The spreadsheet and graphs should be updated at least once daily.

If you have played in the league in the past, you'll also find yourself on the League Glicko Leaderboard. It calculates the rating parameters (mu,phi,sigma) for each player similar to the official leaderboard, using only the games played in the league. Now there are also graphs for each player that show the evolution of mu (best guess for skill) over time and the past results in the league.

Methodology for forecast:
All outstanding games are simulated 100,000 times. In each simulation, a player's skill is drawn from a normal distribution with mean mu and standard deviation phi as given by the current official leaderboard.
Tie probability is set to 2%, and the win probability is 98%/(1+exp(-(skill1+FPA-skill2))). FPA is the first player advantage set to 0.5 for each player in 3 of the 6 games. That corresponds to about a 60% win chance for the first player against an equal opponent.

10
Dominion FAQ / Re: Counterfeit Clarification
« on: June 04, 2018, 05:16:37 am »
2) It's correct that you don't play Treasures at once but one after the other.

3) That is correct.

4) Tokens are supposed to be unlimited. Use all that you have and if you run out find some other way to record it.

11
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Data Mining: Card Impact Factor
« on: May 28, 2018, 06:41:55 pm »
Similar to Alms, Stonemason also has the property that it changes gains less than buys. It was below average on the list for gains with cards up to Guilds as well.

12
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Data Mining: Card Impact Factor
« on: May 28, 2018, 05:50:00 pm »
Thanks to ceviri and his tool, I got some logs from the new client since the Nocturne release. There are about 1100 logs that feature either me (75%) or RTT as a player.

The small sample means that you can expect some outliers for random reasons, but the results look fine enough to me that I'm posting them. You can find them here.

Small sample also means that I'm calculating the impact factor a bit differently than trivialknot, but the idea is still to see how much the buy% or gain% of other cards changes in absolute terms when card/event/landmark X is on the board. Results are normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1.

One thing to note is that a card being on the bottom means that it doesn't affect the chance that at least one of the players buys/gains the other cards much. That could be, because it's a dud as for many cards in the original list. Or because it doesn't affect the average strategy much.
Probably, Herald is at the bottom for random reasons. But you could make a case that with Herald on the board you often play it the same as "on average" and you gain some Heralds in addition.

PS: There's a bunch of other stuff, I've been calculating with those logs, which you can find on the other sheets. Feel free to ask, if there are any questions.

13
Dominion Online at Shuffle iT / Re: How many Players?
« on: May 06, 2018, 04:35:39 pm »
Those are only the accounts that have played rated 2 player games.

14
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Data Mining: Card Impact Factor
« on: May 01, 2018, 05:13:36 pm »
Or like, on board where you go for a Stash deck and you buy Duchy, Duchess is a "might as well" addition. Or am I misinterpreting the statistic.

It's the other way around: on a board with Duchess, you're more likely to go for a Stash deck. (We don't know the number for Duchess on a Stash board.)

But there's overlap isn't there? Like, Masterpiece/Feodum has a similarly high synergy factor to Feodum/Masterpiece.
Yes, you'd usually expect that. For Feodum/Masterpiece both cards are not getting gained much without the other, but gained a lot when they are both present. For Capital/Mandarin I'd expect that Capital increases gain% of Mandarin more than the other way around.

15
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Data Mining: Card Impact Factor
« on: May 01, 2018, 03:22:03 pm »
Or like, on board where you go for a Stash deck and you buy Duchy, Duchess is a "might as well" addition. Or am I misinterpreting the statistic.

It's the other way around: on a board with Duchess, you're more likely to go for a Stash deck. (We don't know the number for Duchess on a Stash board.)

16
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Data Mining: Card Impact Factor
« on: April 30, 2018, 06:39:37 pm »
For 3) the difficulty is whose card categories do I use?  I hope that the PCA analysis, when I do it, will provide some insight into card categories.
I know, that people can argue what defines a Village. I would suggest that you pick whatever definition you like. Given that most villages are uncontroversial, it shouldn't matter too much for the results.

I'm skeptical that PCA will deliver anything useful, but I'd be happy to be wrong about that.

17
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Data Mining: Card Impact Factor
« on: April 30, 2018, 05:11:41 pm »
I don't like the own-effect of the impact factor, because the presence of the card in the kingdom shouldn't affect the average probability to gain it.
It made sense to me because the idea was to see how much the card changes your gains, and surely the presence of a card changes your ability to gain itself.
Yeah, to put it another way, if, in a game with Counting House, you're not much more likely to gain Counting House than you are in a game without Counting House, that's evidence that Counting House is a fairly low-impact card whose presence on the board doesn't usually matter.
But that runs against the idea of "how much does the presence of the card change the gain probabilities of cards?". By that definition, the presence of Counting House doesn't affect the probability of gaining Counting House conditional on it being present.

I wouldn't call it "synergy factor", if it sums up the absolute values of synergy and anti-synergy.

18
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Data Mining: Card Impact Factor
« on: April 30, 2018, 04:56:05 am »
I don't like the own-effect of the impact factor, because the presence of the card in the kingdom shouldn't affect the average probability to gain it.

But shouldn't it be smaller for cards that show up more frequently (Platinum), as it boils down to:
P(gain X|X is in supply) * (1 - P(X is in supply)),
and P(X is in supply) is higher for Platinum? (It can be offset by a higher probability of gaining Platinum.)

The other thing that I noticed with the current formulat is that a card Y that is gained independently of all other cards, still contributes to their impact factors:
P(gain Y|Y is in supply) * (P(Y is in supply|X is in supply) - P(Y is in supply) )

In that sense, I like the alternate formula more than the current one.

Wishlist:
1) Also show a version that excludes Copper, Curse, Ruins, Estate (am I missing something?)
2) For each card, show the top 3 cards that contribute the most in a positive or in a negative way to the impact factor.
3) I (still) would like to see the impact factor (and number of cards gained from that pile) for categories of cards.

4) Analysis with games from Shuffle iT.

19
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Data Mining: Card Impact Factor
« on: April 29, 2018, 05:58:46 am »
I missed that the absolute amount of change is added up.

20
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Data Mining: Card Impact Factor
« on: April 29, 2018, 05:03:00 am »
I don't think that this measure is useful. If I understand it correctly, it is high when you're more likely to gain all other cards in its presence.
Wouldn't that at first glance mean that the card is weak, because I'm more likely to want other cards?
Junkers make people gain Curses, Ruinss, etc, such that they end up high on the list, but not because people want to gain those cards.
Or it really favours engines, such that I want to gain a lot of different cards.

In the end, I can maybe explain why a card has a high or low impact factor, but I wouldn't know the reason, without knowing the card.

I think a more useful version would define categories for cards (Village, Smithy,...) and calculate the impact on those, e.g. am I more likely to gain Villages in the presence of Rebuild or not.

21
Dominion League / Re: Season 27 - Standings
« on: April 26, 2018, 08:12:44 am »

I'm calculating mid season forecasts of the league that simulate the outstanding games based on your rating. The results can be found here. They show the expected number of points after the season and the probability of finishing 1st to 6th for each player. (A-Division accounts for the champion match when it comes to the win probability but not for the expected points.)

To show the evolution over time, there are graphs for each division. They show the expected points for each player after each result that has been reported.
There are also graphs for each player. They show the probability of finishing 1st to 6th, calculated after each day of the season.

The spreadsheet and graphs should be updated at least once daily.

Methodology:
All outstanding games are simulated 100,000 times. In each simulation, a player's skill is drawn from a normal distribution with mean mu and standard deviation phi as given by the current official leaderboard.
Tie probability is set to 2%, and the win probability is 98%/(1+exp(-(skill1+FPA-skill2))). FPA is the first player advantage set to 0.5 for each player in 3 of the 6 games. That corresponds to about a 60% win chance for the first player against an equal opponent.

22
Dominion Articles / Re: Cultist article on main blog (and comments)
« on: April 03, 2018, 11:58:59 am »
I'm glad that the horrible idea of going for a simple Rebuild strategy after two hours of heavier thinking can at least be used as reference. :'(

23
Let's Discuss ... / Re: Let's Discuss Nocturne Cards: Cobbler
« on: March 14, 2018, 12:44:48 pm »
I think that it's rather weak, because it's slow, costs 5, and can only gain cards costing up to 4.

Therefore, you want to get it as soon as possible. Whether you do want it, still depends on the alternatives that cost 5 ... often there's something better and the game is too short to get much out of Cobbler. On weak boards it can be good, however. If there's a weak engine, it might be nice to have 2 Cobblers alternating to ensure that you can kick off.

24
For War it should be enough that your first card is not trashed but discarded to cover your Cursed Village.

25
Scheduling / Re: Season 26 - A
« on: March 03, 2018, 12:33:06 pm »
I'll be back for next season.

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