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Messages - markus

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1
Dominion Articles / Re: Cultist article on main blog (and comments)
« on: April 03, 2018, 11:58:59 am »
I'm glad that the horrible idea of going for a simple Rebuild strategy after two hours of heavier thinking can at least be used as reference. :'(

2
Let's Discuss ... / Re: Let's Discuss Nocturne Cards: Cobbler
« on: March 14, 2018, 12:44:48 pm »
I think that it's rather weak, because it's slow, costs 5, and can only gain cards costing up to 4.

Therefore, you want to get it as soon as possible. Whether you do want it, still depends on the alternatives that cost 5 ... often there's something better and the game is too short to get much out of Cobbler. On weak boards it can be good, however. If there's a weak engine, it might be nice to have 2 Cobblers alternating to ensure that you can kick off.

3
For War it should be enough that your first card is not trashed but discarded to cover your Cursed Village.

4
Scheduling / Re: Season 26 - A
« on: March 03, 2018, 12:33:06 pm »
I'll be back for next season.

5
Dominion Articles / Re: Opening Probabilities: A Study
« on: March 01, 2018, 03:05:30 pm »
Remake

The following board made me calculate the probabilities in this post, but the lesson learned is hopefully useful more broadly on Remake boards:


Having $3/$4, I opened Haven/Remake. My opponent opened Silver/Remake (as was also suggested in spectator's chat).
So why did I prefer Haven over Silver? The first thought is that you really don't want your Remake to miss T3/4, because you'd fall behind on trashing and Ghost Ship attacks will hurt a lot. The other advantage of Haven is that you can make your Remake find the Estates more likely, if you draw it on turn 3, and it makes a Copper or Estate miss the shuffle, if you draw it turn 4.

On the other hand, opening Silver makes getting Ghost Ship more likely on T3/4. But it might be a bit awkward to play, if you draw it without Village on T5/6. (You could draw your Remake dead, or you already have Remake in your hand such that you prefer trashing.)

A third possible opening would be Village/Remake. On T3/T4 this is going to be worse than Haven/Remake, but you really want many Villages, so maybe that's worth it. (In my opinion it beats the Silver/Remake opening, but I'd still prefer Haven/Remake.)

I calculated the outcomes on turn 3 and 4 under the assumptions that you want to maximize the number of trashed Estates (e.g. on T3 you set aside Remake, if there aren't 2 Estates in your hand; or you set aside an Estate, if Remake is not in your hand), and then you prefer to get to $5. On $3 or $4 you take Villages, but the 3rd time you take a Silver, if you didn't open it. (Maybe only the 4th one should be Silver, but this is irrelevant for this post, as I will only consider T3/4 and you can think of the additional Silver being a Village, if you prefer that.)

Here are the trashing probabilities and the probability to hit 5 (when Remake is not in your hand):


Haven and Village openings have a 91% chance to trash, whereas opening Silver the chance is only 83%. Given that you'd be in a very bad position in those 8% of games that seems a significant advantage of opening cantrip with Remake. The advantage of Haven over Village is that more Estates are trashed on average (+0.25 vs Village and +0.42 vs Silver). Chances to hit $5 are low, however.

Here is what the average deck looks like after turn 4 ("net stop cards" is defined as the number of Estates, Coppers, Silvers, Remake minus the Ghost Ships):


The advantage of 0.4 fewer stop cards with Haven might not seem that big, but there's a bit more to consider:
1) After T4, you draw 2 stop cards from the bottom of your deck with a Silver opening compared to 1 with Haven/Village.
2) With Haven, there's a 42% chance that you played Haven on turn 4, such that it set aside a Copper or Estate that misses the shuffle together with Haven.

Therefore, on average you draw about 3 of your 7.9 remaining stop cards with Silver and 4 of your remaining 8.1 stop cards with Haven. (Ghost Ship could make you draw more, but you're unlikely to have Ghost Ship and Village in your hand on T5 when opening Silver.) Hence, you are significantly more likely to draw Remake for the second time on T5 with Haven and would trigger another shuffle after T5 or during T6. (Due to this consideration it might be better to not take a Silver on T3/4, reducing your average net stop cards to 9.1.)


Finally, those are all the outcomes on turns 3 and 4 that above calculations are based on:




6
Dominion Articles / Re: Shepherd
« on: February 20, 2018, 07:54:32 am »
I think you should mention that it benefits a lot from starting your turn with a larger hand (duration draw, expedition) or sifting (Dungeon, but also other sifters can be fine).
Without those, Shepherd is often not reliable enough in my opinion. For example, how well does it do with just Market Square and Trade Route (as light trashing)?

7
Bugrrport: Stef's game against should16 shows in lates games as 423 days ago.
http://dominion.lauxnet.com/scavenger/?user=Stef&num_results=10
This means that the game doesn't count for the ranking as the user has been banned.

8
I'll be playing Jan (Netherlands) on Wednesday at UTC 19:30.

9
Dominion Online at Shuffle iT / Re: Idea: Add a card to a rated game
« on: February 12, 2018, 04:08:40 am »
Asking for automatch to work with created tables would be a lot more feasible. I would totally agree with that.
What does automatch with created tables mean? If there are two players at separate tables that want to play their next game with Black Market that they should get matched automatically? In practice, you would wait forever.

10
Dominion Online at Shuffle iT / Re: Some Statistics on Ratings
« on: February 09, 2018, 10:45:25 am »
Why is the update of mu proportional to phi^2?
It's intuitive that the update should increase in phi as higher uncertainty about the skill makes you update your beliefs more when new information comes in. But I guess your question is why it's the square. For that you'd have to consult the Glicko paper.

11
Dominion Online at Shuffle iT / Re: Some Statistics on Ratings
« on: February 08, 2018, 05:31:18 am »
I think the correlation between games played and Ķ is hiding some important information: the historical record of all games played on other systems. Of course you don't have that data, and maybe it's missing completely at random, but I doubt it.
That is true to some extent. I only took accounts with at least 100 games. By then mu should be about where the starting skill is due to previous experience. That explains the dispersion at the left end. But the other problem is that I'm just looking at the cross-section of players right now.

So let me attempt something different, that aims at seeing how a player's skill changes over time. Here I'm only taking the 1745 players with at least 1000 games and look at how their mu has changed since game 100:

12
Dominion Online at Shuffle iT / Some Statistics on Ratings
« on: February 07, 2018, 05:27:45 pm »
For this analysis, Iím using the same data as Scavenger. (If you donít know it, check it out!)
Iím using all rated 2-player games played until January 29th.

Rating System

Iíll mostly talk about mu, so letís start with a quick summary of the rating system. You can find some more info also here and the links contained therein.

1) mu (Ķ): this is the best measure of your skill and everyone starts with mu=0. Itís a relative measure and the expected win percentage between two players mostly depends on the difference between the two playersí mu. For example, a difference of 1 corresponds to about 73% chance of winning (ties always count as half a win). Hereís a graph that shows this probability in general:


2) phi (ϕ): the second parameter measures the uncertainty around the skill mu. In 95% of the cases a playerís true skill should lie in the interval [mu-2*phi,mu+2*phi]. Players start with phi=0.75.

3) Level: the level is simply calculated as 50+7.5*(mu-2*phi). It is therefore a conservative measure of your skill as it takes the lower bound of the interval given above. That also means that players with fewer games (recently) are on average underrated in terms of their level. But you canít sit on your high level after some (lucky) wins.

4) sigma (σ): this is a measure for the stability of your skill. Players start with sigma=0.033 and it doesnít move much, because stability of mu is hard to estimate given the few games per rating period (=1 day). Given this assumed parameter, the skill of a typical player either gains or loses 0.033 of skill on a day. This makes the estimate of the skill less certain when a player doesnít play (much) and phi increases.

How does the rating change?
In theory, itís simple: mu increases, if you win more games than you were expected to. Scavenger also calculates that for you. How much mu changes also depends on your uncertainty phi. The more certain your rating is, the less it will change.
In particular, the formula is:
mu_change = phi^2*(actual_wins Ė expected_wins)
So, if your phi=0.2, winning or losing a game makes a difference of mu=0.04 (or level=0.3). If you were expected to win with 75%, then winning adds mu=0.01 and losing subtracts mu=0.03.

Uncertainty phi decreases with each game played and increases due to sigma. If your opponent is closer to your skill, phi will decrease more as the result is more informative (what matters is (win_probability*(1-win_probability)). If you play a constant number of games per day, your phi will converge to a certain value. (if you play less afterwards, it will increase again and vice versa.)
For example, if you play 1/5/10 games per day, phi will end up around 0.26/0.17/0.15.


Games Played

Hereís the number of those rated 2-player games recorded per day and the number of what I defined as ďactive playersĒ, i.e. having played at least 10 games in the last 30 days.
Edit: the number of games in the left graph should be halved because each game is counted for each player, hence twice.

There are around 20,000 10,000 games played per day and active players are around 5,000. You can notice the reduction in games played in late October, when Nocturne preview was available.


Distribution of Skill

Hereís the histogram of the current skill of all players, only active players, and the one weighted by the number of games played (in that one mu is the value on the day the game was played:


The following heat maps show which players get matched most frequently. The right one zooms in one games with at least one player having mu=1.5:



You can see above that the distribution is not centred on mu=0 anymore, but the average is negative. Here is how the average has evolved since the start of the leaderboard:


First, let me be clear that this decline is not a big problem, because what matters is not the absolute value of mu but the difference between two players.
But whatís the reason? As described above, the change of mu depends on the difference between actual wins and expected wins and phi. The former is symmetric: if player 1 outperforms expectations, player 2 underperforms by the same amount. But phi can differ between the two. In particular, if the underperformer has a higher phi than the overperformer, mu of the underperformer will fall more than mu of the overperformer increases and average mu falls. This could happen, because new players (high phi) are doing worse than expected (mu=0) or players that have been away for some time (higher phi) are playing worse than before.

Something to note are the two breaks in the red curve of active players above: end of May the decline stopped when the matching system was changed to make the default match more even (smaller level difference allowed). The second break was end of July, when the parameters of the ratings system were changed. That increased the level of new players to 38.75 and made matches of new players with experienced positive mu players more likely.
(Note: I calculated each playerís mu from the start using the current parameters, such that thereís no break in the method. Lowering starting phi from 2 to 0.75 helped to keep average mu more stable, because new players donít lose that much rating on their first losses anymore. If I calculated todayís ratings with the original parameters, the average would be at -0.85 for all players and -0.6 for active players.)

To round this up, here are the upper percentiles and how they have evolved:



Beat the Expectation?
If you want to increase your mu, you need to play better than expected. A question that regularly comes up is whether itís more beneficial to play a better or weaker opponent. For that I look at the difference between expected outcome and actual outcome for different bins of level difference (I use level here, because thatís what you can set in your matching options). I restrict the sample to the better player being at least level 45. The result is the left panel of this graph:
 

It shows that a better player slightly underperforms when facing a weaker player. But the difference is hardly significant: playing someone 8 levels higher would give you a 1% better outcome than playing someone 8 levels lower. Therefore, when averaged over all players, the theoretical win probability shown in the first graph matches the outcome well. Some players might still do better when facing someone stronger or weaker.

The right graph shows the overperformance in the n-th game of a player on a given day (only using players with already 100 games). You might think that itís harder to focus on many games in a row, but that graph doesnít show a strong effect, either. The caveat is that I can only use the rating day, such that I canít see whether thereís been some hours of break between games. If someone plays around 0:00 UTC, then games also count for two days.
What you can see from the right graph is that there is an outperformance on average for those players with 100+ games. That means that those players tend to increase their rating when they play. So letís have a look at the correlation between games played and skill in the following heat map:

There is a mildly positive relationship between the total number of games played and a playerís mu. But you can also see that thereís a lot of variance and playing many games is not sufficient for becoming a good player. Hence, you might want to spend some time on the other sections of this forum or the discord channel.

13
Group A
Markus 6 - 0 crymeariver

14
Group A
Markus (Germany) 6 - 0 Jean-Michel (Finland)

15
Sunday 28th January at 17.00 UTC:

Group A:

Germany - Finland

markus - Jean-Michel

16
Dominion League / Re: Season 25 - Results
« on: January 20, 2018, 10:57:56 am »
A: markus 4-2 drsteelhammer

I'll be back for next season.

17
Dominion League / Re: Season 25 - Results
« on: January 14, 2018, 04:45:10 pm »
A: markus 4-2 aku chi

18
Dominion League / Re: Season 25 - Results
« on: January 14, 2018, 03:48:31 am »
A: markus 4-2 Bryan

19

LaLight provides comments for odd ranks and markus for even ranks.


Hmm...

That's how we split the list. Posting it as bottom and top half makes more sense, though. So half of the comments yesterday were mine and half of today's are Lalight's.

20
The Best Cards (Top Half)

LaLight provides comments for odd ranks and markus for even ranks.

#41 ▼5 Transmogrify (Adventures)
Weighted Average:
52.9%
Unweighted Average:
54.4%
Median:
53.1%
Standard Deviation:
21.1%

Transmogrify just like Duplicate has lost some ranks in this year. In my opinion, the problem with these Reserves is to play them in advance to get some bonus much later. But what makes Transmogrify somehow a little worse is that sometimes you donít have anything to trash after starting Estates. And of course being the Reserve and therefore being very slow hurts Transmogrify a lot.
#40 ▲3 Farming Village (Cornucopia)
Weighted Average:
56.6%
Unweighted Average:
56.0%
Median:
59.3%
Standard Deviation:
16.7%

Farming Village has been stable over time in the middle of the ranking. It's a village that sometimes skips cards that you don't want to have - you're sad when it skips your Ghost.
#39  Diplomat (Intrigue)
Weighted Average:
57.1%
Unweighted Average:
55.7%
Median:
51.9%
Standard Deviation:
18.1%

Diplomat is one of those cards which heavily depends on kingdom. Either the whole engine depends on presence of Diplomat or Diplomat wonít be bought for the whole game. But whatever said, Diplomat is much stronger than its predecessor, the Secret Chamber, both in Action and Reaction part.
#38 ▼2 Envoy (Promo)
Weighted Average:
58.7%
Unweighted Average:
54.5%
Median:
55.6%
Standard Deviation:
21.9%

Envoy has lost a bit and has just fallen behind Advisor.
Having to give up the (potentially) best card often does more harm than drawing one additional card compared to Smithy or its variants. It's nice if there's some other draw or sifting that ensures drawing the good cards that your opponent has discarded.
#37  Mill (Intrigue)
Weighted Average:
59.7%
Unweighted Average:
53.3%
Median:
54.3%
Standard Deviation:
22.2%

The next second edition card in the list, Mill. Mill is a Great Hall+, being one of the ways to hit $5 on the second shuffle almost guaranteed. Other than that it has usual perks of being 2-type cards (Ironworks/Ironmonger etc. interactions) and overall is an average card.
#36 ▼4 Ironworks (Intrigue)
Weighted Average:
59.7%
Unweighted Average:
57.1%
Median:
56.9%
Standard Deviation:
16.0%

Ironworks loses a bit this year, bringing it closer to Armory and Engineer.
Use it, if you want to gain many cards costing up to 4, or to potentially pile-out.
#35 ▲8 Advisor (Guilds)
Weighted Average:
59.9%
Unweighted Average:
57.8%
Median:
54.3%
Standard Deviation:
20.4%

After losing 2 ranks in the last year, Advisor gains back even 8! One person even put Advisor onto the first place (letís look at the avatars). Advisor is a good spammable non-terminal drawcard that gets even better in the presence of many good trashers and yeah, we have a lot of those now.
#34  Exorcist (Nocturne)
Weighted Average:
60.5%
Unweighted Average:
58.1%
Median:
56.8%
Standard Deviation:
24.1%

Exorcist is a new card that (still?) has a lot of variance in the ratings. I like it, because trashing Estates for Will-o'-Wisps is very nice early on. Imp is a nice card as well, that can be drawn by Will-o'-Wisps or play them. Finally, Ghost is a strong card but getting them with Exorcist is relatively costly and slow (gold gainers go well with it). It might not always be worth it to build that much.
#33 ▼9 Temple (Empires)
Weighted Average:
60.8%
Unweighted Average:
60.8%
Median:
58.0%
Standard Deviation:
22.7%

The Gathering trasher from Empires has lost 9 ranks in this years, going to 33rd place. Temple is a nice self-synergetic card (play Teples, buy Temples for VP, trash Temples with Temples) but it is quite slow as a trasher compared to a whole lot of other cards. It has the very same Average, weighted and not.
#32 ▼15 Sea Hag (Seaside)
Weighted Average:
60.9%
Unweighted Average:
62.3%
Median:
63.0%
Standard Deviation:
21.7%

Sea Hag is one of the biggest losers, dropping out of the best third.
Nowadays, there are many decent single-card trashers that can deal with the Hag's curses. And it doesn't provide any benefit other than junking, so its rank below Marauder for the first time seems justified. Still, it's a strong attack with immediate impact and I wouldn't expect her to fall much further.
#31 ▲10 Mining Village (Intrigue)
Weighted Average:
61.0%
Unweighted Average:
56.8%
Median:
61.7%
Standard Deviation:
22.6%

Mining Village continues returning ranks to itself being whole +10 in this year! Villages get better, because there go more terminal cards and self-trashing works nice with Lurker and similar cards.
#30 ▲6 Salvager (Seaside)
Weighted Average:
61.9%
Unweighted Average:
63.4%
Median:
61.7%
Standard Deviation:
20.0%

After some losses in previous years, Salvager rises again in the rankings. Maybe opening it has become less attractive over time, but then there are more gold gainers that make it useful in the end game, as well as being able to mill Provinces.
#29 ▲9 Moneylender (Base)
Weighted Average:
62.0%
Unweighted Average:
62.1%
Median:
63.0%
Standard Deviation:
20.5%

The appearance of Heirlooms havenít ruined Moneylenderís plans to get closer to the first place! +9 ranks and this is only a beginning of his plan. Seriously though, Copper trashing is super good.
#28 ▲1 Sacrifice (Empires)
Weighted Average:
62.2%
Unweighted Average:
63.3%
Median:
64.2%
Standard Deviation:
17.9%

Sacrifice stays where it was in its second year with a relatively low standard deviation. It is a decent trasher that you often want to open with. And sometimes it's going to save your turn when you use it as a Village - or it cleans up your ruins.
#27  Devil's Workshop (Nocturne)
Weighted Average:
62.8%
Unweighted Average:
61.6%
Median:
58.0%
Standard Deviation:
21.7%

Another Nocturne card in the list. Devilís Workshop is quite a universal card: it can give you a Gold, if you have no money, can give you more engine pieces if you have limited gains and can give you Imps just when you need them to have a weak draw in your engine if you donít have any.
#26  Blessed Village (Nocturne)
Weighted Average:
64.5%
Unweighted Average:
60.7%
Median:
64.2%
Standard Deviation:
20.3%

Blessed Village gets its first ranking a bit outside the top quarter. I can see it rising a bit in the future. It's one of the few Villages that can already be beneficial early on.
#25 ▼17 Jack of all Trades (Hinterlands)
Weighted Average:
64.7%
Unweighted Average:
70.9%
Median:
76.3%
Standard Deviation:
20.8%

I donít think I will be wrong if I say this is the biggest loser in the list. Minus 17 ranks compared to the last year! Sorry, Jack, but Big Money gets more and more bad with time. But in no way it is a bad card! Jack still does what he does best: protects from attacks, draws-to-X and gains Silver. It was ranked twice on the first place.
#24 ▼3 Conspirator (Intrigue)
Weighted Average:
64.9%
Unweighted Average:
67.8%
Median:
66.7%
Standard Deviation:
18.2%

Conspirator loses a few ranks this year after gaining last year. It has been pretty stable throughout. It's a very nice card if you're likely to activate it and there are probably more boards nowadays, where you can reasonably do that.
#23 ▼10 Young Witch (Cornucopia)
Weighted Average:
64.9%
Unweighted Average:
63.3%
Median:
69.1%
Standard Deviation:
22.5%

Another curser losing a lot of ranks, Young Witch. Cheap cards become better, trashing becomes better, sometimes you donít buy YW even when thereís no more cursers on board. So Young Witch gets less and less attention (not counting Lord Rattington of course). It was ranked 1st twice.
#22 ▲2 Marauder (Dark Ages)
Weighted Average:
65.2%
Unweighted Average:
62.2%
Median:
65.4%
Standard Deviation:
22.0%

Marauder gained a couple of ranks after losing the year before, so it seems to have found its place. It is now the highest junker and only Militia is a higher-rated attack. It is definitely a nice card to open.
#21 ▲9 Procession (Dark Ages)
Weighted Average:
65.4%
Unweighted Average:
59.7%
Median:
67.6%
Standard Deviation:
24.1%

Procession is one of the best support cards in the game and one of the worst headaches for the players. It got 9 ranks compared to the last year because of its spectacular work with Durations, Reserves, cards you need for limited time (Pooka, Moneylender). And I wonít lie to say it makes the most interesting boards!
#20 ▲8 Caravan (Seaside)
Weighted Average:
65.4%
Unweighted Average:
64.7%
Median:
67.9%
Standard Deviation:
19.2%

Caravan wins the ranks that it lost the year before. Maybe Nocturne with its duration draw cards has contributed to that. Beginning-of-turn draw can be really nice for consistency, especially if there's also terminal draw on the board that you want to connect with your Villages. The well-known downside is that it misses shuffles and that you only get the benefit two turns after buying at the earliest.
#19 ▼2 Smithy (Base)
Weighted Average:
67.6%
Unweighted Average:
69.1%
Median:
74.1%
Standard Deviation:
18.0%

Smithy is the card that lets you draw 3 cards. You draw cards from the top of your deck, until you drew 3. Then you stop.
Seriously though, Smithy is one of the most important Dominion cards as draw is important, but lately thereís a lot of good draw other than it. So it lost a little, but still has the 19th rank.
#18  Shepherd (Nocturne)
Weighted Average:
67.6%
Unweighted Average:
65.0%
Median:
69.1%
Standard Deviation:
20.7%

Shepherd has made it to the top 20, becoming the highest-ranked Nocturne card.
I think that's well deserved. There are surprisingly many boards that have ways to make colliding Shepherd with victory cards likely (begining of turn draw, setting aside cards, sifting). On other boards you just use it as part of your engine that makes it more reliable while greening. Pasture means that there are more Victory cards around to begin with and Estates are worth more, making it harder to ignore a Shepherd-based engine.
#17 ▲2 Quarry (Prosperity)
Weighted Average:
68.2%
Unweighted Average:
64.8%
Median:
66.7%
Standard Deviation:
18.9%

Quarry gets better as there is more Action cards in the game, so no surprises here. $4-card gainersí rating increases, Quarry rating increases as well. + Quarry has a lot of awesome interactions, Quarry + Villa for one.
#16 ▲8 Fortress (Dark Ages)
Weighted Average:
68.7%
Unweighted Average:
65.0%
Median:
65.4%
Standard Deviation:
16.0%

Fortress gains another 8 ranks and has made it into the top 20% after starting out below average in 2013. This is in line with other Villages gaining ranks.
Often you're happy to get a plain Village for 4. On some boards with trash for benefits cards it becomes a really nice part of your payload. So watch out for those combos.
#15 ▲7 Plaza (Guilds)
Weighted Average:
69.5%
Unweighted Average:
65.8%
Median:
69.1%
Standard Deviation:
18.0%

Another proof of Villages getting better as there are more and more engines. Plaza becomes better if you have a lot of overdraw in your deck, which is now mostly the case. Discard the Treasures, draw them back, get coin tokens!
#14 ▲3 Militia (Base)
Weighted Average:
74.3%
Unweighted Average:
73.8%
Median:
77.8%
Standard Deviation:
12.7%

Militia rises a bit, undoing its loss last year. It is the strongest attack on this list. Well, you get it on most boards and often you already get it on your first shuffle.
#13 ▼5 Magpie (Adventures)
Weighted Average:
75.4%
Unweighted Average:
76.1%
Median:
82.7%
Standard Deviation:
19.9%

Magpie went down 5 places since the last year and this is quite expected. As it is good to have a lot of them mostly, thereís a lot of times youíre just thinking ďso? I have a lot of cantrips, thank you very muchĒ. Still when Magpie shines, it shines a lot.
#12 ▼6 Herald (Guilds)
Weighted Average:
76.7%
Unweighted Average:
76.7%
Median:
79.0%
Standard Deviation:
15.3%

Herald's continuous rise has ended and it has dropped out of the top 10.
It is a prime target for all workshop variants as having many Heralds in a deck with a high action density is really nice. It is weaker with Night cards and with cards that care more about the order of play (e.g. Leprechaun and Legionary). It's sometimes a bit awkward with mandatory trashers.
#11 ▲7 Worker's Village (Prosperity)
Weighted Average:
78.0%
Unweighted Average:
74.5%
Median:
80.3%
Standard Deviation:
17.0%

Another Village going up 7 places. This time with +Buy! This card is a lot of engine pieces in one, so expectedly it is in top.
#10 ▲3 Port (Adventures)
Weighted Average:
79.3%
Unweighted Average:
76.7%
Median:
84.0%
Standard Deviation:
17.8%

Also Port gains a few ranks bringing it just into the top 10. It's two Villages almost for the price of 1 without any extra buy. If you don't care much about the extra benefits that the other Villages on this list provide, it's the best way to increase your terminal space. And you can afford to buy a couple more than usual for consistency reasons.
#9 ▲1 Throne Room (Base)
Weighted Average:
81.2%
Unweighted Average:
78.8%
Median:
86.4%
Standard Deviation:
19.4%

Throne Room keeps its place in Top 10, even received one place higher, especially now, when it is not mandatory.  It got 1st place twice.
#8 ▲7 Spice Merchant (Hinterlands)
Weighted Average:
85.5%
Unweighted Average:
81.0%
Median:
88.2%
Standard Deviation:
18.1%

Spice Merchant gains impressive 7 ranks and is the second highest trasher on this list.
On the one hand, that is remarkable as it can only take care of your treasures. On the other hand, it does so in a very nice way. Often you play it as a non-terminal trasher that also cycles your deck. Then, it is not great for hitting $5 early. If that is important, it can sometimes be useful to play it for 2 coins (still not a good way to generally ensure hitting $5). And sometimes the +buy that comes with that option is what you're really looking for (and you need to find ways to not run out of fuel).
#7 ▲4 Villa (Empires)
Weighted Average:
86.9%
Unweighted Average:
80.5%
Median:
87.7%
Standard Deviation:
19.1%

Villa is in the Top 10 with +4 spots! It was ranked 4 times below average and 3 times on the first place. Outstanding card with outstanding ability.
#6 ▲3 Bridge (Intrigue)
Weighted Average:
87.4%
Unweighted Average:
84.4%
Median:
90.1%
Standard Deviation:
18.0%

Bridge rises another 3 ranks this year.
There's not much room anymore, but I think it could be even higher. Many boards allow for an engine using Bridge and then it is really dominating. You want to be the first one that pulls off the mega-turn. I think that people sometimes get it too early - you often don't need to open with it. Mid-game you often want to buy more than you can play just to deny your opponent. If you win the split 7-3, you'll have good chances to eventually win the game.
#5 =0 Ironmonger (Dark Ages)
Weighted Average:
87.6%
Unweighted Average:
82.6%
Median:
88.9%
Standard Deviation:
18.2%

Ironmonger stayed where it was with two votes below average and one first place vote. With a little nerf being Night Cards Ironmonger is still very spammable and essential in practically every game it appears.
#4  Sauna (Promo)
Weighted Average:
89.3%
Unweighted Average:
87.3%
Median:
91.4%
Standard Deviation:
12.9%

Sauna is the best new card of this list.
Together with Avanto it provides everything you need to get to 5 Provinces fairly quickly using a money-based strategy. It is relatively easy to execute and sets a high bar for competing engines - Rebuild has been considered a very strong card for a similar reason. But sometimes there is something better around and you can try an alternative strategy (if there's some faster/more reliable way of trashing). In particular, it is cumbersome for a Sauna-Avanto player to get 5 Saunas before uncovering Avantos. You might be able to do something better in the meantime and then win the Avanto split. Relying on Sauna-Avanto also doesn't allow you to build too big or add too many victory cards as you'll have troubles connecting your Saunas and Avantos.
#3 =0 Wandering Minstrel (Dark Ages)
Weighted Average:
89.7%
Unweighted Average:
83.4%
Median:
93.8%
Standard Deviation:
24.0%

5 votes below average, 4 votes for the first place, itís Wandering Minstrel! Deviation of the card is quite high and itís understandable. Whatever said Minstrel is a high-skill card, especially with the introducing of Night Cards. But good village is still a good village and Minstrel is the best Village for $4.
#2 =0 Tournament (Cornucopia)
Weighted Average:
91.7%
Unweighted Average:
87.9%
Median:
96.3%
Standard Deviation:
19.2%

Tournament keeps its #2 rank and has been consistently close to the top.
I'm not sure whether it deserves to be that high, in particular I disagree with the big difference relative to Poacher at #51. Of course, you almost always get it and try to get some of the 3 preferred Prizes and some Duchies maybe. That comes at the expense of building inefficiently. Also, a blocked Tournament is much worse than a Poacher that becomes an Oasis.
#1 =0 Remake (Cornucopia)
Weighted Average:
94.2%
Unweighted Average:
92.1%
Median:
97.5%
Standard Deviation:
11.9%

Remake remains #1 in the ranking being voted 1st 10 times. What is here to say, trashing is awesome, fast trashing is more awesome, Remake is the awesomest!

21
Yes, Ritual is just too expensive. The combination of costing 4, a buy, needing Curses in supply, and gaining that Curse means that you usually only go for it when you're desperate and need to catch up.

22
I think that Pirate Ship is not worth discussing, but the game theoretical argument doesn't work for 4p, if you believe that on some boards 2 players with Pirate Ships win against the 2 without.
Let's just say, I remember a game in which I tried to play with Fishing Village and Cutpurse as P4 against 3 Pirate Ship players, who also bought Coppers as they ran out of Treasures - didn't go that well for me.  :o

23
Chapel continues to hold its vice grip on the top of this list, somehow even slightly increasing its average

That's a natural thing when cards get added: 2nd place isn't that much worse relative to first place anymore. The average can increase towards 1 even if relatively more people vote it 2nd than last year. Therefore, the simple average comparison is not useful in my opinion - similar to why we compare ranks only between the cards that have been around both years.

24
With too few sign-ups for an Austrian team, I'll play for my counry of residence, Germany instead.

25
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Homage to the Best Card
« on: December 23, 2017, 03:11:17 am »
Yeah, I tried to reproduce the Duplicate bug, but I can't figure out what happened.  I swear it happened and I have no idea how or why.

The reason is that it's already been fixed.

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