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Messages - Calamitas

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1
Forum Games / Re: Quarantine call
« on: June 14, 2020, 03:51:30 pm »
What about a Sunday afternoon (for me) ....like 14:00 or 15:00 forum time?

Second question....tomorrow or next weekend?
I'm in for 14:00 forum time (i.e. 6pm UTC, 8pm CEST, 11am PDT)

2
Forum Games / Re: Quarantine call
« on: June 14, 2020, 03:50:07 pm »
What about a Sunday afternoon (for me) ....like 14:00 or 15:00 forum time?

Second question....tomorrow or next weekend?
that is 3am for LaLight :D
Never mind, I was confused :D

3
Forum Games / Re: Quarantine call
« on: June 14, 2020, 03:49:29 pm »
What about a Sunday afternoon (for me) ....like 14:00 or 15:00 forum time?

Second question....tomorrow or next weekend?
that is 3am for LaLight :D

4
Forum Games / Re: Vacation/Limited Access announcements
« on: June 11, 2020, 03:38:37 pm »
V/LA Friday to Sunday (including), am taking part in an online conference

5
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 09, 2020, 10:17:26 am »
Just saying, if mail-mi flips red: don't let e off the hook if I am targeted tonight.
I think it's very much plausible that both of them are scum together.

e is one of the key reasons why I didn't get through at D2 with mail-mi over Dylan and scum putting each other into 1vs.1 is very much not unheard of in such a situation.

My argument for LaLight's townyness I made somewhere in here still stands though it is based on meta and quite unfounded.
As I said, he said in personal communication in a general way that right now he struggles to play town and is super confident as scum and stuff.
This game seems to resemble the former style, though that includes a lot of WIFOM.
Aside from that, I don't think the cases on him are as strong as they are made to be, they are rather a "we maybe should not townread him for being off wagon" but not a reason to make him actually more likely to be scum compared to others (unless I have missed something).

Regarding swowl I had a weird hunch regarding their interaction with mail-mi during play, check for that Ė maybe you'll see it also, maybe it was weird by me.

Also note that e pushed mail-mi at the middle of D2 less than I thought and he claimed. The only thing that stands out is the probing of mail-mi, besides that he was quiet. This weakens my previous argument why scum!e & town!mail-mi is unlikely.

(Btw, I am fully aware that the last paragraph will be perceived as hedgy tomorrow in the weird world where mail-mi is town.
I am still making the point because I think it is important for it to be made. But in that weird world, if you want to scumread me for it you need to find a deeper and more interesting motive than just me being hedgy out of fear to look like I have pushed mail-mi to hard)

6
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 09, 2020, 09:59:59 am »
Like, if mail-mi is actually town I see no reason why he didn't just hammer.

Why didn't you change then and their? That was bad play.

7
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 08, 2020, 04:41:50 pm »
I still think e is our best choice of lynch for today.

I sorta forgot Didds was in this game, though that's pretty hard to do normally. So that makes me lean toward scummy on her, but I don't think scum!e tries to divert a wagon from his partner to his other partner on D1. So if e is town, didds is probably scum, and vice versa.

I know, right? I am in no way memorable, which hurts my heart.  My adjectives are lackluster and lethargic...both of which are completely counter to how I want to be in games and in the world. I was SO FREAKING ENERGIZED when Joseph flipped red, but since then, we have lagged and stalled and lynched town and lagged and stalled.  Blah. My lack of energy is not for lack of interest, its just that stalls wear me down and we don't have any result on anything and the VCA only goes so far.  So, I am voting for e. His flip will at least tell us something. I am not opposed to you or LaLight, but I am not sure it is as interesting. Then maybe tomorrow something new happens or we can learn something new or SOMETHING.

Maybe pointed questions will stimulate activity.

Have you considered who the third alleged scum is?
How is my lynch more informative than a mail-mi Lynch? Or a LaLight lynch?
Do you have anyone other than ADK in a super duper strong town category?
A LaLight lynch is definitely less informative than you. mail-mi or you I am not sure

8
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 08, 2020, 11:32:25 am »
LaLight, please state your intention with the "will claim VT"

Mail-mi: Do you have a possible narrative why scum!e continues to push Dylan? I need to read that section, just realized my source for that is e themselves. Because scum!e should have tried to let go a bit, make me convince everyone to switch to you and then either me or Dylan is next in line.

PPE: 2

9
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 08, 2020, 11:03:31 am »
I am confused about e. Look how they attacked me at the beginning of D2 and still had me as slightly scummy after my defense. Their townread in the page before doesnít use any new information (not saying there isnít new stuff that is town!me indicative, just saying they didnít use it)

10
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 08, 2020, 11:01:10 am »
why is 2.7 not getting lynched? what are the alternatives? mail-mi and Swowl?

i don't know. i think it's 2.7 for sure and i will figure out who the second one is later
see my previous post for why specially mail-mi over e in my opinion. Why do you think e for sure?
replied without reading the last two pages

11
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 08, 2020, 10:51:40 am »
why is 2.7 not getting lynched? what are the alternatives? mail-mi and Swowl?

i don't know. i think it's 2.7 for sure and i will figure out who the second one is later
see my previous post for why specially mail-mi over e in my opinion. Why do you think e for sure?

12
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 07, 2020, 09:04:41 am »
prod: LaLight

13
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 07, 2020, 08:31:31 am »
Why did the speed of this go down so much. Why is e so silent given they are basically on the brink of being lynched?
Gonna go ahead and guess it had to do with the E! wagon getting run up so quickly.

Honestly, I am not a fan of this whole "there got to be scum off/on wagon" thingy. That is not a good style to scumread individiuals.
This is a fair point to an extent. You should not "skum read" individuals based on VCA. However, I will argue that "the on wagon off wagon thingy" WHEN WE ACTUALLY LYNCHED SKUM DAY 1... is kind of unarguably a good metric to use to attempt to create pools of potential team mates.

I think mail-mi hesitating to lynch Dylan is evidence of him being scum. If they were town they would have been a tad more eager to just lynch Dylan I think than if they knew of their towniness.
More importantly, they decided to go onto hammer the wagon that had E! on it, who is who they were pushing all day. Which is weird. and I get that.. but then see below...


I don't like e's play yesterday. As he said, he was in full tunnel vision but that might actually be because he and mail-mi are scum together or so and he had to fight really hard to get mail-mi over Dylan. I think I still prefer mail-mi over e in direct lynch comparision because
a) in the scenario where both are scum it doesn't matter
b) in the scenario where e is scum and mail-mi is town, e can be fine pushing less because it was clear one of them will be the target given what almost everyone stated
c) in the scenario where e is town and mail-mi is scum, his tunnel vision still makes sense
Thus, I put more probability mass on c) than on b).

Your ABCs here are like solid in thought. But you gotta ask yourself - If MM is skum, why would they kill Space? I know I have brought that up already, but I am actually asking you in regards to specifically your ABCs above here. Like regardless of whether or not you put merit into the one off one on concept, it was clearly stated to be the state of mind of a lot of players in the game. So...

a) They are both skum. Space is killed. Creates a pool of everyone's favorite choice [E!], a pool of [MailMi, Swan], and then then like [Calam, WCD, LL, Yuma]. This is the point I was kind of referring to in my previous post. This is actually possibly an explanation for the kill choice. They both go for one and other in hopes of giving mass town cred to the other.. I guess. But I mean there would be too many Town players alive for the survivor to avoid suspicion of being alive for the rest of the game... so it is a long shot.

b) E is skum, MM is Town. OK... I know I am town, and the kill choice then creates a field of MM/Swan (town, town), E (skum), and [WCD, Calam, LL, Yuma] (2 town, 1 skum). That is a pretty damn good spot for E to put them plus whoever from [WCD, Calam, LL, Yuma] is skum in.




*** "C" here is now it's own separate point I just came to while i was thinking out loud responding to this ***
c) I actually am slightly potentially changing my mind as I type this one up... MM skum, E Town. MM is then skum with one of [Calam, WCD, LL, Yuma]. Doesn't really make sense for them to isolate themselves into a pool with just me if they are skum... but, and this is what I just thought of right now... it could make sense if they come out with a sequence of let's say..
1) voting for Swowl
2) realizing that doesn't make sense, pointing out why, in attempts to remove both of us from selection
3) moving it to someone else, like E!.
That would make skum team MM+ one of [Calam, WCD, LL, Yuma]. So... plan would of been like... lynch E, kill within the second group, and set up for the long game 2v1. Does that parse?
I missed this while being wrapped up in doing the VCA. This could actually be a thing. Maybe.
I find it super hard to read your post I have to admit, the lines are so super long and I find it very hard to parse what you say, sorry.
I can respond to the "why kill Space"-thingy.

I don't think as much in terms of wagon analysis and I myself would never see an issue with mail-mi killing Space.
I mean, there is no fundamental reason why a scum should be off-wagon, that is not how this whole thing works.

I don't think of it in terms of different lynchpools but in terms of likelihoods of individual players and teams.
Killing someone off wagon and revealing them as town does not much but decrease the probability that scum was off wagon.

And Space is objectively one of the strongest players in the game and was strongly townread by most people and unlikely to be lynched.
I obviously cannot look in mail-mi's head and make estimates whether or not they would think along the same lines but I myself consider the Space kill quite good play by scum here.

And then add a bit of WIFOM to the mix and the fact that Dylan's and Space's lynch very much proved that serious town people can be reasonably assumed to be off-wagon which makes it just bad play to think that scum had to be off wagon. Those kind of unfounded assumptions don't get you an iota closer to finding scum.

14
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 05, 2020, 03:41:28 pm »
Why did the speed of this go down so much. Why is e so silent given they are basically on the brink of being lynched?

Honestly, I am not a fan of this whole "there got to be scum off/on wagon" thingy. That is not a good style to scumread individiuals.

I think mail-mi hesitating to lynch Dylan is evidence of him being scum. If they were town they would have been a tad more eager to just lynch Dylan I think than if they knew of their towniness.

I don't like e's play yesterday. As he said, he was in full tunnel vision but that might actually be because he and mail-mi are scum together or so and he had to fight really hard to get mail-mi over Dylan. I think I still prefer mail-mi over e in direct lynch comparision because
a) in the scenario where both are scum it doesn't matter
b) in the scenario where e is scum and mail-mi is town, e can be fine pushing less because it was clear one of them will be the target given what almost everyone stated
c) in the scenario where e is town and mail-mi is scum, his tunnel vision still makes sense

Thus, I put more probability mass on c) than on b).

15
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 04, 2020, 07:17:50 am »
For now I prefer vote: mail-mi . It is crazy how far e has built. I really don't like the L-1, someone please leave that wagon for now.

16
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 03, 2020, 12:33:57 pm »
I still don't like mail-mi and I like e even less than yesterday. Not re-read anything yet.

I have a slight town-read on LaLight, never stated my reasons for that. He stated in the quarantine call, in a general-not-to-this-game-referring-way, that he struggles right now in town games but is doing fine in scum games. This game seems to resemble the former style. But I have not read any recent games and thus cannot confi.rm or deny this.

That being said, his fixation on me seems super weird tbh, imo that's just bad play and makes me question their motives. I mean, there is no reasonable way looking at things in which I appear on the top of anyones scumlist.

you're the one I would expect to kill Space
Fair enough, that might be true. I wouldn't have skilled Scola though?

In general, I think Space was not that crazy a target. Was still surprised after seeing it but they are a quite strong player and were sufficiently towny to not be lynched in all likelihood.

17
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 03, 2020, 08:02:13 am »
I still don't like mail-mi and I like e even less than yesterday. Not re-read anything yet.

I have a slight town-read on LaLight, never stated my reasons for that. He stated in the quarantine call, in a general-not-to-this-game-referring-way, that he struggles right now in town games but is doing fine in scum games. This game seems to resemble the former style. But I have not read any recent games and thus cannot confi.rm or deny this.

That being said, his fixation on me seems super weird tbh, imo that's just bad play and makes me question their motives. I mean, there is no reasonable way looking at things in which I appear on the top of anyones scumlist.

18
Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM31: Random Word Mafia
« on: June 03, 2020, 07:48:44 am »
/tag
The rule should be also enforced in the speccy imo :-)

19
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 3)
« on: June 03, 2020, 07:33:41 am »
hell

I'm extremely frustrated. vote: Calamitas , I guess
What. This is insane.

20
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 01, 2020, 07:42:47 am »
I really don't like that no one was going away from Dylan and don't like e's play at all at the end. It's pretty insane to allow the best alternative lynch target to hammer and even provoke him into doing so.

21
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 01, 2020, 07:38:49 am »
I don't worry at all about 3), in that scenario I don't care about whom I lynch first; thus it's not an argument against preferring mail-mi
It's not an argument against preferring Dylan either
Yes, so you can 100% ignore it when thinking about Dylan vs. mail-mi. That has been my point all the time.

22
or Calamitas.
This is ridiculous.

23
I prefer mail-mi as I cannot really imagine a scum!Dylan & town!mail-mi scenario, the push on mail-mi has been way to weak for that.

I find this an odd argument

1)I wouldn't call the push on mail-mi "weak", he's the second leading wagon and IIRC more than one person currently not voting for him has expressed willingness to do so
2)mail-mi would not be the scumteam's only option for a lynch to push
3)As I pointed out before, Dylan and mail-mi being scumbuddies is not an unreasonable scenario
I don't worry at all about 3), in that scenario I don't care about whom I lynch first; thus it's not an argument against preferring mail-mi

I still feel 1) is true, he's the second leading wagon but I didn't feel a drive towards it. Sure, people stated they were fine going there but no one did. Instead, the Dylan wagon built and built and no one except me made a push for switching. Dylan could have easily been hammered by now, that's what I would call weak.

I think 2) is a bit mood as no one else was really pushed and mail-mi would be the most convenient choice. The arguments for him and Dylan are similar and a significant number of people have stated that they like either (though votes are mostly on Dylan).

24
mail-mi, you expressed intent to hammer Dylan, has that changed at all?

calamitas, what is your current opinion on Dylan?
I prefer mail-mi as I cannot really imagine a scum!Dylan & town!mail-mi scenario, the push on mail-mi has been way to weak for that.

Dylan is in my second tier of people I want to lynch. I still don't like the way he defended Joseph and ignored him at the beginning of D1. His states reasons for not liking Joseph are potentially authentic though and his reaction to LaLight sounds kind of genuine though I think it's misguided. And I don't have much confidence in the people on wagon, in particular e, Swowl and to a lesser extent West.

25
even though Joseph was playing a really scummy D1 game
We both didn't see it as scummy at the time

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