Never mind, it is very clear in the rules that they would.
You're having kind of a hard time reading the rules today, huh? :-P I just had the whole setup open in a separate tab so I can check it.
Anyway, as a person who's quite capable of getting into setuppy discussions, and also as my fellow person under suspicion (at least as far as ADK claims!), what do you make of MiX's plan?
Obviously, I'm not either the UB or Vig. Feel free to poke holes at this, there's probably a few, but this should at least be a good strategy.
The flaw is that only IC and UB are guaranteed to be unique, as I sort of said in my late-night post last night.
It means we could have two vigs (a one-shot and a full vig) and still have a valid game configuration (e.g. TMMVVV). Possibly with other letters instead of that T, though of course we haven't (yet?) seen a scum flip bullet-proof, so there's a lower chance...
I've started doing a bit more thinking, and also modifying my Asher9++ code to give me exact numbers on possible game setups, but unfortunately I find myself with a very busy day, so I'll come back to it when I get the chance.
I don't think scum flip bullet-proof.
Obviously, I'm not either the UB or Vig. Feel free to poke holes at this, there's probably a few, but this should at least be a good strategy.
The flaw is that only IC and UB are guaranteed to be unique, as I sort of said in my late-night post last night.
It means we could have two vigs (a one-shot and a full vig) and still have a valid game configuration (e.g. TMMVVV). Possibly with other letters instead of that T, though of course we haven't (yet?) seen a scum flip bullet-proof, so there's a lower chance...
I've started doing a bit more thinking, and also modifying my Asher9++ code to give me exact numbers on possible game setups, but unfortunately I find myself with a very busy day, so I'll come back to it when I get the chance.
space and gkrieg are the people who were on galz and not lalight so I think we should start there
vote: gkrieg
What makes this second exile not look like anyone bussed?
Because bussing at that point is just giving up
I think the issue with anyone claiming is that the last mafia member is the full roleblocker, which would effectively nullify our vig until they are dead and the UB picks up their role.
I guess that is only important in the case of a full vig.
I think the issue with anyone claiming is that the last mafia member is the full roleblocker, which would effectively nullify our vig until they are dead and the UB picks up their role.
space and gkrieg are the people who were on galz and not lalight so I think we should start there
vote: gkrieg
I know the day's going slow but I don't think I like the mcmc exile, mostly because I'm suspicious of many of the people on it
@ADK: At 144 you were the only one voting Galz. Then you voted Dylan at 159 and mcmc at 189, both before the flood of votes for Galz that started at 190. Why did you leave Galz and why didn't you go back?
I left galz because the day was going slowly and I was hoping to get something to happen. I didn't go back because I was hoping for something more interesting than a lurker exile
She said that she didn’t include anyone who voted for someone who hadn’t flipped. I only voted for someone who had flipped, so I was left out. She also left out the votes on Galz from other folks on his wagon at the end, and ADKs vote on Galz earlier in the day. She was only looking at the votes on people still unknown to try to build a sense of interactions.
Wow, thanks for that summary, Didds! I was getting worried that I might be talking gibberish, because I'm feeling super-frustrated at MiX repeatedly accusing me of being wrong when it seems more likely that he just got it into his head that I was doing something different (based on early/late voting maybe?) than I actually was trying to do, and therefore wasn't open to any evidence based on actual reality :-P
Either that, or MiX is genuinely being difficult over that one little bussing point I made because he's scum and wants to focus conversation on something minor that might even end up being misleading...
I'm still confused, but I guess that's just me.
Space only looked at still unflipped voter voting for still unflipped target. That would exclude any votes for or by faust and galz, since they have both flipped. It's not super complicated. Now, having said that, I'm actually not sure there's enough information to support any conclusions space was trying to make in this post.It's sort of interesting that the off-wagon people were much more present. EFHW also posted in the middle of Galz's wall of posts, at #251, so she could have chosen to hammer but didn't. MiX and ADK both posted within minutes of the hammer, hadn't posted before that.
I think MiX and mcmc are emerging as people who are looking suspicious now. The former for trying so hard not to exile Galz, and the latter for being so decisive about exiling him.
Interestingly, I feel like it's unlikely they're both scummy, because MiX moved his vote from LL, who'd been on two votes, onto mcmc, putting him to three votes. I don't think scum!MiX tries to detract from scum!Galz's wagon by growing a wagon on scum!mcmc instead.
Also, looking at possible D1 bussing off-wagon, there's really not a lot of scope for it if I also assume that MiX and mcmc aren't scum together. ADK was on the first incarnation of the Galz wagon, and later also voted Dylan and mcmc. EFHW voted mcmc. Dylan voted LL. Those are the only cases of unknown-on-unknown voting, from my point of view. It makes me recall that some scum teams decide explicitly not to bus in D1, so it's worth considering that we might be in that sort of a situation here, in which case maybe there's not a lot of on-wagon bussing either.
I'm not sure that helps us much at all here, but I want to put it out there. The consequences would make mcmc look a bit more townie (since he picked up many of the unknown votes), and MiX and possibly LL look more likely to be scum. However, I doubt scum was counting on Galz going down so hard at the end, and it's true that at least one of them would almost certainly have benefitted from bussing if they were able, so this reasoning is probably a bit far out there to rely on.
So the unknown on unknown votes were MiX->LL, mcmc; ADK->Dylan, mcmc; EFHW->mcmc; Dylan->LL; and whatever votes Space did but didn't list here. The simple fact is, 6+space's votes just isn't enough to say anything about whether scum had a no bussing policy in place for D1. Space does admittedly say "I'm not sure how that helps us much at all here," but then proceeds to defend mcmc a bit and shade MiX and LL, which is strange because mcmc received 3 votes and LL received 2, so I would think from this LL would be included with mcmc rather than MiX, who voted for both LL and mcmc. Actually, that inconsistency sounds just like Space was talking just to make up something to talk about and trying to make up conclusions to fit the narrative they wanted rather than looking at what they were posting.
vote: Space
I was going to say gkrieg looks towny in his vote, since the mcmc wagon was up to three and he could have voted there. But if all three are scum, voting Galz was the best move. So if mcmc flips scum, I'll want to look again at gkrieg.
At the end, it looks like galz tries to stop a wagon from forming on mcmc. Maybe he realized that mcmc was the only other person he could reasonably get a wagon going on and was looking for other last-minute alternatives?Does this mean you think mcmc is scum?
gkrieg: made a couple of posts after the X-1, ending 2 hours before Galz returned. Gkrieg didn't return until D2.
I feel like this is a little misleading, as my posts after my X-1 vote were just to say that it was X-1. I also stated that I was not going to return, so if you are looking at people being stuck on their partner, it can't be me.
Nope, Dylan's original post was asking about people who were online but maybe hadn't really had time to respond to Galz's big wall of posts before mcmc's hammer, so I was saying that you don't fall into that category because you definitively weren't around. I had thought that more people than just me and EFHW had managed to interject something into that stream, but it turns out that most of the other posting started with the hammer from mcmc, not before it.
I also think it is unlikely that partners bussed galz, because the main reason you do that as scum is if you get a bunch of town cred for bussing your partner D1, and the way it happened, with the reasons it happened do not point to anyone getting a bunch of town cred for exiling galz.
Am I wrong in thinking that some people are looking at mcmc in a townier light because of the hammer? I know I'm feeling a bit suspicious of him, and I'm pretty sure it was EFHW who expressed something similar, but I thought there are others who feel he's townie after that.
If Swowl could find a replacement, that would be better for the fun of the game than exiling Galz. Also, it seems to me that scum!Galz would be less likely to do this.
This is a scummy post from EFHW when the galz wagon was picking up EAL folks.
It's not scummy to hope for a more active player to join us. There was no reason to think Galz was any more scummy than random. Last game I got heat for pressuring him to participate more!
PPE: 17
I also think it is unlikely that partners bussed galz, because the main reason you do that as scum is if you get a bunch of town cred for bussing your partner D1, and the way it happened, with the reasons it happened do not point to anyone getting a bunch of town cred for exiling galz.
Isn't this post an example of it happening?
I'm saying that there is not anyone that is getting a bunch of town cred (to the point that people think they are conf!town), which makes it less likely that scum bussed galz.
