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Messages - Jimmmmm

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1
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 17, 2019, 09:19:23 am »
I'll put together a case tomorrow. Please don't vote for me before then.

2
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 17, 2019, 08:08:35 am »
I'm afraid and I really need to reread more

What are you afraid of that you weren't afraid of earlier in the Day?

3
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 17, 2019, 08:08:08 am »
I didn't think he was particularly scummy. Not sure if Umbrage did. There's no point scum you keeping him alive if no one else thinks he's scummy.

4
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 16, 2019, 10:28:18 pm »
Okay, I did more or less a full re-read. I went into thinking Umbrage was scum, but I've changed my mind and think it's LaLight now.


Day 1:

joth was voting for me for a large portion of the Day. He made a big (for Day 1) case on me: #393.
After DatSwan's Mason claim, Galz and I had 3 votes on us each. Dylan and joth both voted for me (#385 and #386), putting me on L-2 with Galz still on L-4.

They both (particularly joth) pushed for lynching me ahead of lynching Galz. If I was scum with them, it would have been the easiest thing in the world to get the Galz lynch through. Obviously joth did end up hammering Galz, but only because that's the Towny thing to do (avoid a no-lynch). If you read Day 1 after the DatSwan claim, they definitely tried to lynch me.
Bear in mind that if I'm scum, I'm a full (not 1-shot) Strongman, which is probably very close to the most valuable member. With various possibilities for for Town Roleblockers and Doctors, the Strongman would be the one to make every kill a guarantee. Also a Strongman flip helps Town solve the game as it indicates the possible number of Ts. There is no way scum wants to kill their Strongman on Day 1.


Day 2:

This is the Day that made me change my mind about Umbrage. It's the one significant Day that scum hasn't tried to lynch me, and they tried to lynch you instead. joth seemed pretty keen for your lynch, and Dylan voted for you too. The same argument apply for them not bussing you, except that if you're scum you're only a 1-Shot Strongman.


Day 3:

Funnily enough, joth says it best:

By the same token, “scum makes a fake cop claim and accuses themselves in order to guarantee the game that they’ve basically won drags on two more turns” strikes me as absurdly implausible.

As I've said before, scum was in a very good position before Dylan's claim. Even if all 3 scum had come under suspicion, there were plenty of opportunities for mislynches. New reads and cases always come up, and it was very unclear who would be lynched that day. In the scenario in which I'm scum, Dylan's claim absolutely guaranteed that the next lynch would be scum.


Day 4:

I didn't technically participate in the joth lynch. In hindsight I probably should have voted for him at the start of the Day, and I should probably use my vote better in general. But I was very vocal about wanting to lynch him. I feel like I led that lynch (primarily on Day 3) more than anyone, except maybe DatSwan.

Also about the Dylan claim - a Dylan/joth/me team in this scenario (if we did for some reason decide to claim a Cop result on our own), would have been much better off if I had been lynched instead of Dylan. Dylan and joth tied themselved together very strongly and Dylan probably would have received much more Town cred for his claim resulting in a correct lynch that I received by being targeted. So if this was the case I should have done less to fight against being lynched. As it happened, I fought hard against it and succeeded, making the following joth lynch fairly inevitable.



About the mcmc kill:

LaLight argued pretty strongly against mcmc. I think that if you (Umbrage) or I were scum, we would kill the other and leave LaLight and mcmc alive, hoping for a mcmc lynch. Scum LaLight leaving him alive doesn't help much if he's the only one who expressed a scum read on him.

5
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 16, 2019, 09:26:58 pm »
Umbrage, what was your reaction to seeing ss was a Roleblocker?

6
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 16, 2019, 07:06:27 pm »
And that line of reasoning and that grab for towncred read as very scummy to me.

Of course it did.

7
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 16, 2019, 06:25:38 pm »
I mean, are you looking only at vote counts and not at the rest of the game?

This reads like deliberately missing the point.

What's the point?

8
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 16, 2019, 06:16:59 pm »
Could you please both give your reasons for voting for joth (or point me to them)?

9
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 16, 2019, 06:06:29 pm »
I mean, are you looking only at vote counts and not at the rest of the game?

10
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« on: January 16, 2019, 06:01:59 pm »
So are you arguing that Joth's lynch wasn't on scum then?

I'm not sure what you mean.

11
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 16, 2019, 05:47:23 pm »
Umbrage, did you use your RB shot?

12
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« on: January 16, 2019, 05:41:00 pm »
The thing about scum lynches is that they are very difficult. Scum will do everything they can to avoid them. There is no way a Dylan/joth/me team gives the Town two correct lynches on a silver platter.

Jimmm wasn't on Joth, and was the first vote on Dylan after Dylan claimed a cop guilty on him, it's not like he could unvote there. So the only useful argument is that scum!Joth wouldn't bus Dylan, and clearly that happened (and mcmc would have hammered if Joth didn't.)

I wasn't on joth because I wasn't sure about ending the Day so soon. I made it extremely clear that I thought he was scum:

Would lynch: Dylan, joth.

joth still seems the most likely partner. I'm picking LaLight as the third. No lynch is still probably best though.

Coming from the person who just got copped at scum, this is not particularly compelling.

I got copped as scum. You know this how?

Dylan, why didn't you use your 1-shot right away -- why wait until last night?

I think you know the answer - you decided to wait until mylo to try to finish the game off with this claim.

Question to Dylan and Jimmmmm: You know one scum. Can you try to figure out who you think their partners are? Rereads would be ideal.

Prereread joth seems obvious. LaLight a likely third. I should get some rereads done tomorrow.

2) DatSwan and faust are masons. Dylan is scum. In this case, we need to explain why scum didn't kill the masons and why they are risking a proactive cop claim when they are doing pretty well without one.

Again, we don't need to explain scum's behaviour at all. The fact that you're arguing this is the explanation. Do someone kind of crazy late enough in the game that you can likely get away with it => argue that it's so crazy that scum would never do it => win the game.

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As to number one, the only thing that makes any sense is that they're doing this all to frame Swan and faust.

No, you're doing it to frame me. Obviously. One more mislynch is probably all you need, so this is how you're attempting to get it.

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But that's almost as insane a scum play as claiming masons in the first place. Isn't it? Doesn't scum just kill the claimed mason right away night 1, instead of killing ashersky?

Not if you want to make this argument.

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3) DatSwan and faust are scum, Dylan is their partner. This is a possibility we need to consider. The scum have been doing very well with their mason claim, and now need only one more mislynch to win the game. They also know that UB is a relatively safe fakeclaim. So they decide to try a hail mary. If it works, they win. If Dylan gets lynched, hey faust and Swan get to keep on being "IC"s into the end game.

This is false and a scumslip. If Swan, faust and Dylan are the scum team, then the real UB is still out there, and UB would be an entirely unsafe fakeclaim. But you know that UB is a relatively safe fakeclaim and so messed up your story here.

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Final note, my gut here is to believe Dylan and not Jimmmm, although the tiny math chance gives me pause. Gut read, Jimmmmm is acting right now exactly like scum!Jimmmm from scenario 1 would act. He's acting like he had prepared for this possibility in advance. Look how quick he was with the math post.

I posted #754 when I saw Dylan's claim and #764 32 minutes later. Plenty of time to grab some paper, come up with a figure of 97.3%, realise that 4 Ms were impossible, change it to 99%, and do my best to make the post clear and concise.

Quote
So if we're in scenario 1, for instance, that means mcmc, Umbrage, and Lalight need to show up soon and be active and we all need to agree to lynch Jimmmmm or a Mason claimant.

You'd like that wouldn't you?

PPE 6

What does that have to do with math? You didn't forget anything. You assumed that UB was a safe fakeclaim. What possible reason could you have for assuming that other than that "UB is a safe fakeclaim" was in your mind already?

Jimmm - who is your top skum pick?

joth

I don't really see a scenario in which I would agree to keep joth alive to the end. Primarily due to the way he responded to Dylan's claim. Scum obviously discussed the claim the night before and expected it to work.

I'm happy to just hammer if you want.

I'll let mcmc say what he wants to before hammering.

13
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 16, 2019, 07:54:11 am »
This makes sense and it may be WIFOM as well.

The "WIFOM" argument would be that we (Dylan, joth and myself) thought that I would get enough Towncred that it would be worth giving up two of our own players, which is a reeeeally big stretch.

Quote
Why would UoS kill mcmc?

The only reason I can think of is because I listed you as the third scum.

14
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 16, 2019, 06:55:06 am »
My gut right now says Jimmm

Why?

I'm actually amazed that both of you have indicated me as their lynch of choice. Which means one of you legitimately thinks the scum team was Dylan/joth/me, and the other thinks I'm their best mislynch opportunity.

The scum me narrative is such an epic conspiracy theory. The thing about scum lynches is that they are very difficult. Scum will do everything they can to avoid them. There is no way a Dylan/joth/me team gives the Town two correct lynches on a silver platter. It just doesn't happen. Dylan didn't claim a Cop result on me to ensure scum gets lynched for Towncred, he did it to try to win the game for scum on that Day. joth didn't agree with him and push for my lynch and vice versa to ensure scum gets lynched for Towncred, he did it to try to win the game for scum on that Day. There is no plausible amount of Towncred that would be worth giving up 2/3 of the team for.

I am thinking about it. I mean winning is a goal, not staying alive as long as you can, so this plan works in a case you describing.

I'm having trouble parsing the last part of your sentence. Regardless, scum is in a heck of a lot worse position now than they were before Dylan claimed. If I'm scum then that change in position was orchestrated by scum to a very large and very unnecessary degree. Scum just doesn't throw that hard.

15
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 16, 2019, 06:51:24 am »
frankly I need to reread that blitz game where Jimmm was scum too.

My most favorite scum!Jimmmmm game is RMM7, absolutely spectacular. Not sure though, how good of an example this one is

LOTR, right? The two LOTR games were probably my favourite ever.

16
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 15, 2019, 08:55:43 pm »
My gut right now says Jimmm

Why?

I'm actually amazed that both of you have indicated me as their lynch of choice. Which means one of you legitimately thinks the scum team was Dylan/joth/me, and the other thinks I'm their best mislynch opportunity.

The scum me narrative is such an epic conspiracy theory. The thing about scum lynches is that they are very difficult. Scum will do everything they can to avoid them. There is no way a Dylan/joth/me team gives the Town two correct lynches on a silver platter. It just doesn't happen. Dylan didn't claim a Cop result on me to ensure scum gets lynched for Towncred, he did it to try to win the game for scum on that Day. joth didn't agree with him and push for my lynch and vice versa to ensure scum gets lynched for Towncred, he did it to try to win the game for scum on that Day. There is no plausible amount of Towncred that would be worth giving up 2/3 of the team for.

17
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 15, 2019, 05:34:00 pm »
Never mind.

18
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 15, 2019, 05:32:42 pm »
That's a weird enough kill it warrants a complete reread, which I absolutely do not have time for today.

Who were you expecting to be killed?

19
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 15, 2019, 09:09:06 am »
You know how I feel about "that's too crazy for scum to do" arguments coming from a suspect, but man. Scum had us at a flawless MyLo. If I'm scum then Dylan's claim completely guaranteed that the next lynch would be on scum. Joth and I then rallied against each other, basically ensuring that the next lynch would be on scum.

I mean, there's bussing and there's self-destruction. By voting for me you are arguing that I threw away the chance to win the game then and there TWICE just for the chance to win at the very last opportunity.

I understand the irony of this post if I was scum (I'm not!). But just understand what you're arguing for if you vote for me. How many scum teams in the history of forum Mafia do you think have been on the cusp of a flawless victory but decided "Let's get all of us but one killed so that last one gets lots of Town cred!"

That would be crazy.

20
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 15, 2019, 08:56:21 am »
5 one-sentence posts is more calculating than nervous?

I didn't really ask you to unvote. Given how early in the Day you voted, I kind of assumed you wouldn't. I started making a post voting for you, but was too worried that the game was over as soon as UoS arrived, so I double checked whether you were firm on your vote.

21
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 15, 2019, 08:42:00 am »
I just feel like you're decepting me into thinking UoS is scum. I don't say self-preservation is a scumtell, it's just how I feel

How? How have I responded differently than I would as Town worried that UoS will swoop in and hammer?

22
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 15, 2019, 08:32:54 am »
the more I think that you are trying to divert my attention from you the more I think you are scum, actually. But I will wait just in case.

How am I trying to divert attention from me, and why is that scummy? Self preservation at LyLo is not a scum tell.


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given that you really was sure I am a third scum, mcmc's kill is reasonable from UoS as well, But he still has the whole game of being townie. But ok, I'll wait.

I definitely wasn't sure you're the third scum.

23
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« on: January 15, 2019, 08:29:46 am »
I think it's really stupid for scum to try to set up faust and Swan and it works for us in a really good way, PoE is strong with this one. Also I thought silver was scum pretty probably, so I like the kill. I have a couple more days of low activity, hope I'll be more active after, sorry

I think naming you as third was for this post, but it was more instinct than anything. I think scum does a fair bit of trying to appear as Town trying to analyse scum kills, moreso than Town spends time analysing kills. "I thought silver was scum pretty probably, so I like the kill" particularly seems more like the former than the latter.

24
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 15, 2019, 08:24:06 am »
Also, my first post Today was hoping to bait UoS into being too eager to vote for you.

so you could win, right?

To try to test my theory about the mcmc kill.

25
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« on: January 15, 2019, 08:18:23 am »
Also, my first post Today was hoping to bait UoS into being too eager to vote for you.

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