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Messages - Merudo

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1
Goko Dominion Online / Re: strange ratings
« on: February 07, 2015, 01:11:21 am »
Iso is bugged and unreliable. My Iso rating is "?", and has been like that for a while.

2
Update:
There have been a few requests for additional data and I've done some more research that I wanted to share but I don't want to create yet another thread. I'll update this first post with additional data as I collect it.

It would be wonderful if you could post the win rates of 1st vs 2nd player. I'm especially curious about the importance of player order in games with expert players, as well as games with powerful cards (militia, sea hag, cutpurse) that are even better for player 1.

It may be selective retention, but I feel that against players of comparable skills, most of my wins occur when I have 1 extra turn, while most of my loses happen when I had one less turn.

3
Dominion General Discussion / Re: More data mining: Card "strength"
« on: February 01, 2015, 01:44:07 am »
I'm surprised how well Scout, Transmute & Adventurer can be according to this last list.

Then again, I always believed Adventurer can be amazing on some boards :).

4
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Individual player analysis tool
« on: January 25, 2015, 06:33:53 pm »
It doesn't work for me, it acts as if I never bought a card ever.

5
grsbmd, I don't think the correlation coefficient is at all adequate for the "unweighted ranking".

The main problem is that you are trying to estimate an association between two binary variables (high-ranked / low-ranked with buy/don't buy).

EDIT: I thought the player ranks had been dichotomized, but they were not. My apologies.

6
Goko Dominion Online / Re: Formula for modified card frequencies
« on: November 02, 2014, 07:30:53 pm »
I'm surprised you dislike Tournament so much. I have not seen a lot of hate for that card yet, and in my experience it's always a fun card to have in the Kingdom.

I'd put Scrying Pool in there instead...

7
Dominion General Discussion / Re: silverspawn's card list
« on: October 28, 2014, 08:32:58 am »
Possible buff for Dominion 2nd Ed Scout - make it a green card - so basically the scout exactly as is but green and worth 1VP.
Heck make it 0VP like one of the Shelter, so that it combo somewhat with itself.

8
Dominion General Discussion / Re: silverspawn's card list
« on: October 26, 2014, 04:59:27 am »
There is already not that much interaction in Dominion, especially in 1 vs 1. With your change it would become a glorified solitaire.

There is a lot of interaction in Dominion. Especially in 1 vs 1.
Disagree! If there is no attack cards on the kingdom, or if they are weak / don't work well with the rest of the board, there will be almost no interaction beyond deciding when to start buying provinces - and even that will be more limited, given the elimination of 3-piling.

Granted, the timing of provinces buys is a very interesting decision - but it's certainly not what I'd consider "lot of interaction".

9
Dominion General Discussion / Re: silverspawn's card list
« on: October 25, 2014, 08:52:45 pm »
If I were to try to "fix" this problem in a Dominion variant, one thing to try would be to give each players their own supply piles to buy from. That way, both players can get 10 Minions if they really want to. Obviously this has some big downsides, like removing end-game tactics related to opportunistic 3-piling and split-winning tactics. It still might be more fun overall for some players.
There is already not that much interaction in Dominion, especially in 1 vs 1. With your change it would become a glorified solitaire.

Off the top of my head, I can't think of ideal examples of lotteries in Dominion. Treasure Map and Tunnel are both kinda close, although in both cases, if you play a good strategy including either of these cards, you're more likely to succeed than to not, so it comes out more like an anti-lottery at high levels of play. Venture is a better example: usually hits a Copper (not bad, but basically a $5 Silver), but occasionally something better (yay, a Gold-or-more for $5).
I'd consider Tournament to be a classic example on some boards.

10
Dominion General Discussion / Re: silverspawn's card list
« on: October 20, 2014, 08:04:10 pm »
You can't have a ranking of all rankings.

You can have a ranking of all rankings, but not a ranking of all rankings that do not rank themselves.

11
Why do you want good cards? I'd rather have rats, a relatively weak but very fun card than cultist, a very good but un-fun card.

I guess I was not clear. What I defined as "good" cards are really non-terrible cards.

Rats is included in there. The only cards I excluded and considered not "good" are :

Chancellor
Woodcutter
Bureaucrat
Mine

Coppersmith
Pearl Driver
Herbalist
Cache
Poor House
Death Cart

Feast
Secret Chamber
Pirate Ship
Talisman
Contraband
Counting House

Harvest
Duchess
Adventurer
Thief

Scout
Saboteur

Transmute

12
Dominion General Discussion / Re: silverspawn's Design Rankings
« on: October 19, 2014, 10:51:56 pm »
I mostly agree with silverspawn's ranking, although I do have a few disagreements,

Chapter I: The Bad Cards
205. Masquerade
Masquerade is entry #2 in the previously mentioned list. For a while, I thought this card was actually worse than Possession, but it's absolutely not. Really, it's not even close. The only reason I ever thought so was that I had forgotten how bad Possession really is. I probably was lucky not to play with it for a while.

That said, I still hate it, and the reason for that is that pass mechanic is not designed to hurt your opponent, so when it does, it feels unjustified and unfair quite similar to possession. They are my cards. Not yours. *sigh*
In my experience, it is very rare that a good card is stolen with Masquerade. The cards I mostly see changing hands are copper/estate - and, later in the game, silver/$3 actions.

Does anyone have stats on how often a good card gets passed through Masquerade?

My feeling is that although Masquerade can be quite unfair, it's unfair so rarely that it doesn't belong to the list.

Chapter 2: The Weak Cards (And Outliers) - Part one
199. Adventurer
Adventurer is the same as Scout, really. It costs 6$, even though it could easily cost 3$, making it probably the second weakest card in the game. Digging for Treasure cards as a concept is okay, but again, that doesn't help if the card is too weak to ever get bought.
I know I'm in the clear minority here, but I believe Adventurer gets to really shine if not outright dominate on some boards - which should at least rank it above Duchess.

Adventurer is quite nice if you get to trash the copper early, if the other terminal actions on the board are weak, if Platinum is available, and if there are strong junkers.

Just think about - if you get to trash all the copper, each Adventurer is guaranteed to give at least $4. This means in the absence of good terminal actions, getting 1 Adventurer is strictly better than getting 1 gold. In Colony games you can easily get 6+ gold by playing an Adventurer, which is invaluable when you draw a hand full of provinces/curses/ruins.

Adventurer also has a nifty interaction with tunnel, and with cards that make you put your junk on top of your deck such a Pearl Diver.

I know adventurer is a terrible card nearly all the time, but in the few cases it is bought it can be devastating.

Plus, it is always nice to beat down someone with a card widely seen as utterly mediocre :).
Chapter 2: The Weak Cards (And Outliers) - Part two
192. Contraband
The idea behind Contraband is probably to make you gain unconventional cards, kind of like Swindler, rewarding your creativity, and causing you to have a different type of game. I can appreciate this intention, but like many cards on this list, it fails due to the fact that it's just too weak. For this one, I can't help thinking that an extra coin would solve everything. As is, it's just not a factor in most games. I find that, what Contraband needs in order to be viable (aside from multiple cheap engine components), is a way to remodel it into a better card, because it's just so weak in the end game. Upgrade is ideal here; play Contraband to build your engine, then upgrade it into a gold, and profit.

I find the Contraband +buy to be invaluable on boards without other +buy and many engine pieces to buy - in fact I'd much rather buy Contraband instead of, say, Woodcutter.

Moreover, if you play Contraband before your other treasures, the other person has no idea how much $ you really have, meaning they may often ban the wrong item. Even late game, you can often buy double Duchies if they ban Provinces.

I'm also surprised you didn't mention Chancellor/Feast/Saboteur. Maybe in the next list?

13
I used Amazon.com to check the price of each card (as of October 19, 2014), and calculate what is the price you pay per kingdom card when you buy an extension.

Moreover, I used silverspawn's rankings to calculate the price per "good" (i.e. not terrible) card, where a good card is one that is ranked 3 or more by silverspawn.

I also added a prince per "well-designed" card, as ranked by silverspawn here. Here a well-designed one is one not ranked in Chapter I: The Bad Cards or Chapter II: The Weak Cards (And Outliers).

Expansion
Base
Intrigue
Seaside
Alchemy
Prosperity
Cornucopia
Hinterlands
Dark Ages
Guilds
Promo
Price
$28.22
$29.73
$28.70
$20.20
$29.22
$19.09
$27.50
$25.87
$20.34
$2.50
Per card
$1.13
$1.19
$1.10
$1.68
$1.17
$1.47
$1.06
$0.74
$1.56
$2.50
Per good card
$1.57
$1.42
$1.20
$2.20
$1.33
$1.59
$1.15
$0.78
$1.56
-
Per well-designed card
$1.28
$1.35
$1.25
$2.89
$1.27
$1.59
$1.15
$0.78
$1.56
-

As you can see, Dark Ages is by far the best bang for your buck, giving nearly twice as many kingdom cards for the money as the smaller expansions (Alchemy/Cornucopia/Guilds).

Although Hinterlands cost slightly less than Seaside/Prosperity, you get more "stuff" out of the latter two expansions (playing mats & coins for the former, Colony & Platinum for the later).

Base & Intrigue give a price per card similar to Hinterlands/Seaside/Prosperity, however both the original sets have many duds, which inflates their price per good card. Still, you get the money/victory cards only with Base/Intrigue, making buying one of these sets attractive.

Guilds & Cornucopia are among the most pricey sets - they cost about 40% more than Hinterlands/Seaside/Prosperity. This is not surprising, given that Guilds & Cornucopia have half the cards of bigger sets yet only cost $6-7 less.

Finally, Alchemy is the most expensive set for the cards you get. This is especially true if you don't could the "bad" cards of Alchemy (Transmute/Herbalist), in which case you pay nearly 3 times as much per card as Dark Ages.

14
Finally, I transformed the ranks in percentiles, and then averaged them.

Here are the results (higher means better):

Cornucopia: 64% (sd: 31)
Guilds: 55% (sd: 18)
Dark Ages: 53% (sd: 26)
Hinterlands: 50% (sd: 29)
Seaside: 50% (sd:31)
Intrigue: 50% (sd: 34)
Prosperity: 48% (sd:33)
Base: 39% (sd: 31)

Again,

Most overpowered set: Cornucopia
Most underpowered set: Base Dominion
Most balanced set: Guilds (runner-up: Dark Ages)
Most unbalanced set: Intrigue & Prosperity

15
I think the primary issue here is that you are calling the lowest ranked cards "underpowered" and the highest ranked cards "overpowered", which is taking too much from just ranking.  By taking the top and bottom 25%, you are immediately assuming that 50% of all cards are unbalanced.  If you must choose an arbitrary cut-off, it would be better to use a smaller number.

So which number would you use? 10%? 15%? 5%?

I wouldn't even use a percentage.  I'd do what Donald said and make the judgement call myself.  For simplicity, maybe look at top and bottom of each of the ranked lists and choose a cut-off.  So for example, let's look at the $4 cards.

Scout, Thief, Feast, Coppersmith, Treasure Map... OK, Coppersmith is sometimes a powerhouse payload, but that happens very rarely.  I think it's fair to say that it's underpowered.  Treasure Map is weak but I don't think it's underpowered.  It's supposed to be high variance.  So I'll put the cut-off there.

Sea Hag, Tournament, Remake... well, I don't think any of those are really overpowered.  But Sea Hag and Tournament can be pretty centralizing, so maybe I'll put those through.  Remake definitely isn't overpowered though (especially with Shelters), so I'll cut it off there.

From 57 cards, I ended up with the bottom 9% and the top 4%.

I did a new analysis with different cut-offs:

Cut-offs:
Cost 2: Pearl Diver (20/22), Hamlet (4/22)
Cost 3: Great Hall (32/34), Steward (4/32)
Cost 4: Bureaucrat (50/57), Jack of All Trades (4/57)
Cost 5: Madarin (57/66), Witch (5/66)
Cost 6+: Expand (14/16), Goons (2/16)

Underpowered:

Base (32%):
     $3: Chancellor, Woodcutter
     $4: Bureaucrat, Feast, Spy, Thief;
     $5: Mine
     $6: Adventurer
Intrigue (20%):
     $2: Secret Chamber, Great Hall;
     $4: Coppersmith, Scout;
     $5: Saboteur
Seaside (15%):
     $2: Pearl Diver;
     $3: Navigator, Treasure Map
     $5: Explorer
Prosperity (15%):
     $5: Contraband, Counting House, Royal Seal
     $6: Expand
Cornucopia (8%):
     $5: Harvest
Hinterlands (16%):
     $2: Duchess
     $5: Cache, Mandarin
     $6: Farmland
Dark Ages (3%):
     $5: Graverobber
Guilds (0%):

Overpowered:

Base (8%):
     $2: Chapel
     $5: Witch
Intrigue (12%):
     $2: Courtyard;
     $3: Masquerade, Steward;
Seaside (15%):
     $3: Ambassador, Fishing Village;
     $4: Sea Hag
     $5: Wharf
Prosperity (12%):
     $5: Mountebank;
     $6+: Goons, King's Court
Cornucopia (23%):
     $2: Hamlet
     $4: Tournament, Remake
Hinterlands (8%):
     $2: Fool's Gold;
     $4: Jack of all Trades
Dark Ages (6%):
     $5: Rebuild, Cultist
Guilds (0%): 

Most overpowered set: Cornucopia
Most underpowered set: Base Dominion (runners-up: Intrigue, Hinterlands)
Most balanced set: Guilds (runners-up: Dark Ages)

16
I think the primary issue here is that you are calling the lowest ranked cards "underpowered" and the highest ranked cards "overpowered", which is taking too much from just ranking.  By taking the top and bottom 25%, you are immediately assuming that 50% of all cards are unbalanced.  If you must choose an arbitrary cut-off, it would be better to use a smaller number.

So which number would you use? 10%? 15%? 5%?

17
True, you originally described them as "unlikely to be useful in non-prosperity games" implying that they're unlikely to be useful in Province games. That's a bit less harsh.

I agree, that was the wrong call.

18
Bank and Forge certainly don't qualify as "usually unplayable and a waste of space."
That's why they are not on the underpowered list!

Still, according to the ranking and discussion in other threads, Bank and Forge seem rather average: most of the time they are inferior to gold, but sometimes they get to shine.

You are welcome to discuss this issue in the The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $6+ cards thread if you disagree :).

P.S. I decided to remove the second rating for Prosperity (the one excluding 7 cost cards). It didn't really help, and was confusing.

19
In my experience, these underpowered cards are usually unplayable & a waste of space; unless you specify pick a board for them, chances are they will be bought only once or twice in a game, if at all.


I don't understand the bolded part. How many times a card is bought in a game has nothing to do with its power level. Chapel will pretty much never be bought more than once (per player) in a game, yet it's one of the strongest cards in the game.

Chapel is pretty much its own category :) Sure you buy it once, but it has such profound effects on the game that it is definitely a very powerful card.

Similarly, cheap cantrips (I look at you, Pearl Diver) that don't do much may be purchased a lot, but their effect on the game will usually be minimal.

I admit I simplified my definitions of "underpowered" and "overpowered" cards - but I still believe they are helpful.

20
King's Court is very strong in Province games, and Bank and Forge are solid cards in Province games. Only Expand is weak in Province games.

Bank and Forge are near the bottom of the list - right above Harem. I'm not convinced these are "solid" cards - by the time you get Forge/Bank, the game is getting close to be over and you will be unlikely to Forge a province or to use Bank more effectively than a Gold.

21
I think using a flat 25% cut-off point is obviously going to give you bad results. Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

You then compound this by considering the cards ranked by cost. What if I made more weak $4's than $3's? In fact things just like that actually happened.
True, but $4 cards don't have to compete with Silver as much...

I agree the 25% cuttoff is unsatisfactory. It's more of a starting point for a discussion - others are free to make there own list according to their own criteria.

Also, handpicking the cards I think are weak would be less objective - plus it is a lot more work  ;).

And if you do that, you may want to include Scout somewhere.
I somehow forgot to include the Scout ;D  As the bottom ranking $4 card, it obviously belongs to this list!

22
The ranking are for two players. Cards like Pirate Ship are not underpowered when you move into multiplayer games.
I agree that some cards become better in multiplayer games.

Thief: allows you to steal more coins - but probably remains a terrible card.
Noble Brigand: allows you to steal more coins. It stops being an underpowered card as it barely made the list.
Beggar: has a higher chance to be used for its reactive ability.  It stops being an underpowered card as it barely made the list.
Pirate Ship: has a better chance to reveal a treasure. Probably stops being an underpowered card.

So that's 3 cards that are not underpowered anymore - one from Seaside, one from Hinterlands and one from Dark Ages.

Similarly, some overpowered cards might lose power in multiplayer games:

Militia, Margrave, Minion & Goons lose power and do less if others also used it the previous turn. Of these, Margrave is probably the only one becoming underpowered.
Ambassador empties piles faster - but that might actually make it stronger.
Jack of all Trades's defenses may crumble if there too many attacking players - however it probably still remains on the list.
Tournament is less good as there are more players who can reveal a province; moreover, others are likely to get the best prizes first.

Of these, I'd say only Margrave (Hinterlands) becomes underpowered.

So as you see, the only difference from including multiplayer consideration is that two expansions (Dark Ages and Seaside) have 1 less underpowered card (Hinterlands gains and loses 1 card for no change).

23
Btw Merudo: Welcome to the forums :)
Thanks :D

Also, I have to say I kind of don't like reading these weaker cards are a waste of space. I agree there are cards which have really limited use but there are situations where even those can shine.

Like, Woodcutter is good if you really need the +Buy, sometimes you want it for being an action. Great Hall is nice if you want to get rid of your Hovel in turn 1/2, Workshop finds its way into a lot of decks on boards where there are plenty good cheap cards or splits are crucial, Rats is often worthless but comboes nicely with TfB cards and Watchtower, Graverobber can be a great engine Payload, Pillage gets better in an engine where you can play it and pay the spoils the same turn and sometimes can skip Gold, and so on. From time to time even Pirate Ship can shine and wreck your opponent completely. As always: Depends on the board.
I agree with the sentiment. The cards I listed as underpowered have a place and can be used on some boards.

However, chances are, if you randomly choose which cards will be in the game (as recommended in the manual) or if you don't specifically design the board for them, they will usually be ignored because they are too weak.

To me, that's a bad thing. I'd rather have cards that are going to be considered nearly every games, instead of a Woodcutter that I won't even look at unless there is no +buy on the board.

24
Which expansion has the most powerful cards? Which one has the most useless ones? I tried to answer this question by analysis the data from Qvist's 2014 Rankings. (Note: since Alchemy cards have their own special costs, I excluded them from this list)

Here, I define a cards as “underpowered” if it is ranked in the 25% worst cards for its cost category ($1-2, $3, $4, $5, $6+). In my experience, these underpowered cards are usually unplayable & a waste of space; unless you specify pick a board for them, chances are they will have nearly no effect on gameplay - they maybe bought only once or twice in a game, if at all.

Or, in the words of Donald X, "There are some duds, and those duds reduce strategic options".

Here is the list of expansions and their associated underpowered cards. In parenthesis is the percentage of that set that is underpowered.

Base (36%):
     $3: Chancellor, Woodcutter, Workshop
     $4: Bureaucrat, Feast, Spy, Thief
     $5: Mine
     $6: Adventurer
Intrigue (24%):
     $2: Secret Chamber, Great Hall
     $4: Coppersmith, Scout
     $5: Saboteur, Tribute
Seaside (23%):
     $2: Pearl Diver
     $4: Navigator, Pirate Ship, Treasure Map
     $5: Explorer, Outpost
Prosperity (32%):
     $3: Loan, Trade Route
     $4: Talisman
     $5: Contraband, Counting House, Mint, Royal Seal
     $6: Expand
Cornucopia (15%):
     $3: Fortune Teller
     $5: Harvest
Hinterlands (27%):
     $2: Duchess
     $3: Develop
     $4: Noble Brigand, Nomad Camp
     $5: Cache, Mandarin
     $6: Farmland
Dark Ages (14%):
     $2: Beggar
     $4: Rats
     $5: Graverobber, Pillage, Rogue
Guilds (8%):
     $4: Taxman

First, we can see that Guilds (8%), Cornucopia (15%), and Dark Ages (14%) have the lowest number of underpowered cards. It is likely that that overly weak and useless cards were excluded from Guilds & Cornucopia as these sets already have few type of cards (13) to begin with. Dark Ages however is surprising – it has almost no useless cards (4) yet is the set with the most Kingdom cards. At about $28 on amazon, it might be the most cost-effective way to get a high number of playable cards.

On the other hand, the Base set (36%), Prosperity (32%), and Hinterlands (27%) all have a high number of unplayable cards. The base set has terrible $3 and $4 cards, many of which are among the worst of the worst. Prosperity has, surprisingly, the second highest proportion of terrible cards (32%). This is strange considering the glowing reception the set has received. It may be that the glowing reviews of the set are due mainly to the addition of Platinum & Colonies, and not the actual quality of the Kingdom cards.

After analyzing underpowered cards, I decided to see which sets were overpowered. Similar to underpowered cards, I define a card as overpowered if it's ranked in the top 25% for its cost.

Here, having overpowered cards may be good or bad, depending on your point of view. On one hand, overpowered cards are awesome to play and are often bought. However, having overpowered cards on the board can lead to a lack a variety as everyone rushes to buy the dominant cards.

Here is the list of overpowered cards & expansions with, in parenthesis, the proportion of the set that is overpowered:

Base (12%):
     $2: Chapel
     $4: Militia
     $5: Witch
Intrigue (32%):
     $2: Courtyard
     $3: Masquerade, Steward, Swindler
     $4: Bridge
     $5: Minion, Torturer, Upgrade
Seaside (27%):
     $3: Ambassador, Fishing Village
     $4: Caravan, Sea Hag
     $5: Ghost Ship, Tactician, Wharf
Prosperity (28%):
     $4: Bishop, Monument, Worker's Village
     $5: Mountebank
     $6+: Goons, Grand Market, King's Court
Cornucopia (46%):
     $2: Hamlet
     $3: Menagerie
     $4: Tournament, Remake, Young Witch
     $6: Hunting Party
Hinterlands (20%):
     $2: Fool's Gold;
     $4: Jack of all Trades;
     $5: Ill-Gotten Gains, Margrave
     $6: Border Village
Dark Ages (26%):
     $3: Squire; Forager;
     $4: Marauder, Ironmonger, Wandering Minstrel
     $5: Rebuild, Cultist, Junk Dealer, Counterfeit
Guilds (0%):

First we see that the Base set (12%), Hinterlands (20%) & Guilds(0%) all have few overpowered cards. As we have seen, the Base set and Hinterlands also have a high proportion of underpowered cards – it appears these two may well be the least powerful sets of Dominion. Guilds however also have only 1 underpowered card – this may indicate it is among the most balanced set yet, with nearly all its cards being useful & appropriately priced. Alternatively, the strengths and weaknesses of Guilds may be poorly understood given it is the most recent set – perhaps the rankings will change in the future.

Moreover, we see that Intrigue (32%) and especially Cornucopia (46%) are the sets with the most powerful cards. Again, having cards that are too powerful may be to the detriment of these sets, as cards such as Masquerade and Remake become auto-purchases on some boards.

Finally, I note that Prosperity (28%) also has a high of overpowered cards – even if it also has a high proportion of underpowered cards (32%). Prosperity seems to be made of very powerful cards and very weak ones, with few cards of average power.

In summary,

Most overpowered set: Cornucopia
Most underpowered set: Base Dominion (runner-up: Hinterlands)
Most unbalanced set: Prosperity (runner-up: Intrigue)
Most balanced set: Guilds (runners-up: Dark Ages, Seaside)

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