1
Dominion League / Re: Season 6 - Results
« on: February 17, 2015, 02:39:49 pm »
TheExpressicist - 4, Vsiewnar - 2
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2
Dominion League / Re: Season 6 - Results
« on: February 08, 2015, 02:59:25 pm »
C2: TheExpressicist-1
Heisenberg- 5
Heisenberg- 5
3
Game Reports / Those piles are fickle little creatures
« on: February 08, 2015, 10:24:14 am »
Code: [Select]
Crossroads, Herbalist, University, Advisor, Bandit Camp, Count, Mandarin, Royal Seal, Tribute, Wharfhttps://www.gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?20150208/log.5144ecf7e4b0bef57ec85b7d.1423405598265.txt
So first, the shameless gloating; that final turn buy/gain of 4xAdvisors+Province+Estate pileout for the 1-point win was one of the more satisfying victories I've had in recent memory.
Now for the questions. I'm curious as to everyone else's take on this game.
1. What's the best open here? My thought was, obviously Wharf is going to be the dominant card; it's a shelters game so I have necro for +Actions, and Crossroads is on the board which can soak up some extra coin. So I didn't think the +Actions from University would be necessary early on. I don't usually like to open Silver/Silver (and then I wound up picking up a third silver on T3.... yuk.) but I thought Potion-Silver would be too slow. However, although my deck initially loaded up faster, his four Universities really allowed him to ramp up his deck to the next level once his engine started going.
2. At what point do you buy the Count? I thought his T3 purchase was too soon, since his deck was already going to be a bit slower due to the University open. And my T11 purchase was too late, but I felt like I had to win the Wharf pile to stand a chance, so I didn't want to use up any $5 buy/gains.
3. Was it a mistake for my opponent to go after Bandit Camps so heavily? I deliberately ignored them until the end because I thought that the Spoils would gum up the engine. My thought was, I would have gone for a mix of Advisors and Bandit Camps. He needed card draw due to losing the Wharf split. And since he had 4 Universities, he'd be in a much better position to control the pile-out of Bandit Camps if he needed to end the game.
4
Dominion League / Re: Unrated games?
« on: February 06, 2015, 04:00:08 pm »I don't think this is an issue. There are no rewards for doing well in the League, so there's no reason why anyone would cheat.
I mean, I don't think anyone is doing this in the league, but you think that there's no reason to cheat? For some people winning is really important, and they'd seek unfair advantages even in unrated non-league games (see, for instance, the Pirate Ship / King's Court setup board that someone or other plays over and over in Casual games). And in the league there are rewards for doing well: your name in lights on the leaderboard, the respect and admiration of other players...those can be more compelling than some smal monetary reward. So while, again, I don't think this is a serious issue that needs addressing, I don't agree at all that there's no reason anyone would cheat.
AKA: The Pertinax Board.
I think there will always be a reason for people to cheat. But whether or not people actually do is another question altogether. And if they do, whether or not it's worth going through a bunch of hoops to stop it is also a different question entirely.
5
Dominion League / Re: Season 6 - Results
« on: February 06, 2015, 02:08:43 pm »
TheExpressicist - 4
Andwilk - 2
Andwilk - 2
7
Dominion League / Unrated games?
« on: February 06, 2015, 07:37:52 am »
I can't be the first to have thought of this but doesn't playing the final game or two as unrated introduce the potential for the host to cheat and use a custom deck? Or just keep randomizing until they find a kingdom they are comfortable with?
I have a few ideas for how to fix this but before I go too far down the rabbit hole, I wanted to see if this was something even really worth fixing.
(for the record, this is absolutely NOT meant to be an implicit accusation of cheating. In fact, in the only league match Ive played so far, I was the host.)
I have a few ideas for how to fix this but before I go too far down the rabbit hole, I wanted to see if this was something even really worth fixing.
(for the record, this is absolutely NOT meant to be an implicit accusation of cheating. In fact, in the only league match Ive played so far, I was the host.)
8
Help! / Re: League match feedback
« on: February 06, 2015, 06:39:13 am »
Code: [Select]
Transmute, Pearl Diver, Shanty Town, Swindler, Village, Smithy, Apprentice, Catacombs, Horn of Plenty, Grand Markethttps://www.gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?20150206/log.516e5516e4b082c74d7d5f0c.1423221737399.txt
This was another instance where I just completely fell apart in the face of a few bad decisions+bad luck. 5/2 isn't a particularly strong open for this board, but getting that Apprentice swindled really hurt. I wasn't really sure where to go from that point and ended up making a lot of random purchases which didn't really gel together. I thought I would try to cobble an engine together, but with Apprentice being the only trashing (and Awaclus taking full advantage of it), I'm thinking I should have tried to build some economy to try to replace that Apprentice as fast as possible.
Overall, I went 2.5 to 3.5 so I'm not super disappointed with myself but I still feel like I made some weak decisions on these two games.
9
Help! / League match feedback
« on: February 06, 2015, 06:34:44 am »
Two games:
https://www.gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?20150206/log.516e5516e4b082c74d7d5f0c.1423217788243.txt
At first I was feeling pretty good about the Watchtowers/Moats, since I was managing to miss all of his Soothsayers. But as the game progressed and he was able to consistently buy Provinces despite having 4 curses, I was thinking that maybe that extra card from Soothsayer helps out more than I gave it credit for. The last turn where I collided Militia and Moat really hurt.
Code: [Select]
Moat, Watchtower, Cutpurse, Militia, Navigator, Spy, Band of Misfits, Mandarin, Margrave, Soothsayerhttps://www.gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?20150206/log.516e5516e4b082c74d7d5f0c.1423217788243.txt
At first I was feeling pretty good about the Watchtowers/Moats, since I was managing to miss all of his Soothsayers. But as the game progressed and he was able to consistently buy Provinces despite having 4 curses, I was thinking that maybe that extra card from Soothsayer helps out more than I gave it credit for. The last turn where I collided Militia and Moat really hurt.
10
Dominion League / Re: Season 6 - Results
« on: February 06, 2015, 06:26:21 am »
Awaclus: 3.5, TheExpressicist: 2.5
11
General Discussion / Re: A Math/Stats Question
« on: February 04, 2015, 04:06:30 pm »If you consider each card to be unique in a deck of cards, each ordering (of the 52 cards) has the same probability, right? The .5*X instance of one heads one tails comes because you're considering the orderings HT and TH to be the same.
If we're talking about a deck of unique cards, yes.
12
General Discussion / Re: A Math/Stats Question
« on: February 04, 2015, 04:00:54 pm »But given an infinite number of shuffles don't we just get every ordering as much as any other?
You'll get each ordering in proportion to how probable that ordering is. If you flip two coins a single time, the probabilities look like: 25% two heads, 50% one heads, one tails, 25% two tails. So if you flip two coins X times, you'll have on average .25*X instances of two heads,.5*X instances of one heads one tails, and 25*X instances of two tails.
But you can't assign the value "infinity" to X. You can look at things as X approaches infinity. So no matter what the real value of X is, you'll always have twice as many instances of one-heads-one-tails as you will two-heads.
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General Discussion / Re: A Math/Stats Question
« on: February 04, 2015, 03:39:23 pm »Given a Bernoulli process (probability of success p), what is the chance that, given an infinite number of trials, after SOME point, the majority of trials have come up with success?
If I understand the question right ("given an infinite number of trials, what is the probability that at any point the number of successes outnumber the number of failures"), the probability is 1 for any p > 0.
A good rule of thumb is that whenever infinity is involved, you need to be very careful on your intuition. From the linked PDF, it turns out that the probability is 1 for p >= 1/2, and p / (1-p) for p < 1/2.
This sounds weird because if we do something an infinite number of times, surely we must have every possibility eventually happen. However, it turns out this isn't generally true. For example, a random walk in 2 dimensions returns to the origin with probability 1, but a random walk in 3 dimensions returns to the origin only around a third of the time. Usually, this comes down to the rate of growth for the two - for example, if the probability of getting a majority at time t+1 is 1/4 the probability of a majority at time t, then the probabilities decrease fast enough to make the sum across all times t not equal to 1.
Yup, I misread the question as asking about an infinite number of random walks, rather than an infinite number of steps in a single random walk.
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General Discussion / Re: A Math/Stats Question
« on: February 04, 2015, 03:12:07 pm »Given a Bernoulli process (probability of success p), what is the chance that, given an infinite number of trials, after SOME point, the majority of trials have come up with success?
If I understand the question right ("given an infinite number of trials, what is the probability that at any point the number of successes outnumber the number of failures"), the probability is 1 for any p > 0.
15
Game Reports / Re: I'm lost on this board!
« on: February 04, 2015, 11:07:46 am »
If it were me, I'd open Scheme/Sea Hag. I'd keep picking up Schemes with $3 hands, and alternate Remodels and Heralds, depending on how the game goes. By turn 10, the curses will probably be close to gone if your opponent goes for the mirror, and if you have enough Schemes you should be able to get in a Remodel almost every turn. Then you've got some flexibility in the endgame; you can either try to remodel your deck into BM, or you can go for a Bridge and pile out Estates if your opponent has also gone after Schemes.
Edit: if you get 5/2, I think you go Mint-Embargo. You've got about an 80% chance of hitting a $3 hand T3, then grab a Silver. Mint your silver, then grab Remodel, Schemes, and Heralds. With Necro you should be able to draw your whole deck by like T5, at which point you have a bunch of different options; you can remodel Silver into Bandit Camp/Estates into Bridges and go Engine. Or you can go BM and Mint your Gold, then Remodel Provinces into Provinces in order to speed up the end.
Edit: if you get 5/2, I think you go Mint-Embargo. You've got about an 80% chance of hitting a $3 hand T3, then grab a Silver. Mint your silver, then grab Remodel, Schemes, and Heralds. With Necro you should be able to draw your whole deck by like T5, at which point you have a bunch of different options; you can remodel Silver into Bandit Camp/Estates into Bridges and go Engine. Or you can go BM and Mint your Gold, then Remodel Provinces into Provinces in order to speed up the end.
16
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Interview with Donald X.
« on: February 02, 2015, 12:02:18 pm »
Do you want Dominion to gain the kind of widespread following that, for example, M:tG has? If not, why not? If so, what would you say has been the biggest obstacle to that goal?
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Dominion General Discussion / Re: Combinations that actually make Scout do something useful
« on: February 02, 2015, 09:10:21 am »
Vineyard/Silk Road, Scout, Ironworks, Great Hall/Island.
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Dominion General Discussion / Re: More data mining: Answering Dominion questions with data
« on: February 02, 2015, 07:05:05 am »You know, I'm not really sure which is better on average, 5/2 or 4/3. What you just posted suggests 5/2, and I guess that's about right. Can you just look at which opening split is better?
Adjusted Win Rate of 5/2 vs. 4/3:
5/2: + 3.5%
4/3: - 1%
19
Dominion General Discussion / Re: More data mining: Answering Dominion questions with data
« on: February 01, 2015, 08:31:06 pm »
Along the same lines of how much luck plays an impact, I also analyzed Top-20 players' "adjusted win rate" compared to when they played their first $5 card.
T3/T4/T5: +4%
T6/T7: +0%
T8/T9 +0%
T10+: -3%
Of course, this is across the board and doesn't target specific high-value $5 cards like Witch or Mountebank.
T3/T4/T5: +4%
T6/T7: +0%
T8/T9 +0%
T10+: -3%
Of course, this is across the board and doesn't target specific high-value $5 cards like Witch or Mountebank.
20
Dominion General Discussion / Re: More data mining: Answering Dominion questions with data
« on: February 01, 2015, 08:23:31 pm »Do those stats take into account that the number of cards you draw depends on how you open? So Silver-Silver is drawn less than Silver-smithy because your smithy might help draw your silver?
It simply looks for if you played one or both of the cards you opened with on or before T4. So, for example if you open Smithy-Silver, you're guaranteed to play both.
If you open double terminal and they collide, that's not the same luck of the draw as having one miss the shuffle. And another factor is that you might choose not to play a drawing action you opened with so that it doesn't trigger a bad shuffle.
Side note, you aren't guaranteed to see both Silver and Smithy if smithy is at the bottom of your deck.
Yup, good catch. I edited my post re: silver/smithy.
Re: double terminals, it's not the same luck of the draw, but, regardless there's a luck component. You've got about a 33% chance of two non-drawing terminals colliding. (55% if you have a 2-draw, and 66% if you have a 3-draw). The player who doesn't collide those terminals is going to have an advantage over the player who does, which is what I was trying to quantify.
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Dominion General Discussion / Re: More data mining: Answering Dominion questions with data
« on: February 01, 2015, 05:47:40 pm »Do those stats take into account that the number of cards you draw depends on how you open? So Silver-Silver is drawn less than Silver-smithy because your smithy might help draw your silver?
It simply looks for if you played one or both of the cards you opened with on or before T4.
22
Dominion General Discussion / Re: More data mining: Card "strength"
« on: February 01, 2015, 02:52:51 pm »
I'm gonna update the thread title from being just about card strength to the general subject of trying to answer Dominion questions using game data. I have some more data but I don't really want to start yet another thread.
Impact of First-Shuffle Luck on Win %
In other words, how big of an impact does missing one or both of your T1/T2 purchases before the second reshuffle have on the Win % of the Top-20 players? Measured in "Adjusted Win %", see first post for explanation.
When opening Action/Action (63.5% of the time):
Hit Both Actions: +4%
Hit One Action: -3%
Hit Neither Action: -11%
When opening Action/Treasure (32% of the time):
Hit Action + Treasure: +1.5%
Hit Treasure Only: -11%
Hit Action Only: -0.5%
Hit Neither: -11%
When opening Treasure/Treasure (4.5% of the time):
Hit Both Treasures: +2%
Hit 1 Treasure: -12%
Hit Neither Treasure: -40%
Impact of First-Shuffle Luck on Win %
In other words, how big of an impact does missing one or both of your T1/T2 purchases before the second reshuffle have on the Win % of the Top-20 players? Measured in "Adjusted Win %", see first post for explanation.
When opening Action/Action (63.5% of the time):
Hit Both Actions: +4%
Hit One Action: -3%
Hit Neither Action: -11%
When opening Action/Treasure (32% of the time):
Hit Action + Treasure: +1.5%
Hit Treasure Only: -11%
Hit Action Only: -0.5%
Hit Neither: -11%
When opening Treasure/Treasure (4.5% of the time):
Hit Both Treasures: +2%
Hit 1 Treasure: -12%
Hit Neither Treasure: -40%
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Dominion General Discussion / Re: More data mining: Card "strength"
« on: February 01, 2015, 08:21:51 am »Quote from: Wandering Winder
The thing about SR in high-level games is, it's a card you often go to if you're way behind. "I'm very far behind - if I'm going to win, it will have to go long enough for SR to be good (better than duchy anyway), so SR it is". Desperation moves are going to look bad, even if they may up your winrate in the situation you get them.
Yes, this. I've been trying to think up a way to account for this. Something I'm considering is establishing an arbitrary turn limit, like, only counting cardS purchased before turn 10 or something. I *think* this should sufficiently account for deliberate strategies, and weed out ad hoc desperation tactics. Thoughts?
24
Dominion General Discussion / Re: More data mining: Card "strength"
« on: January 31, 2015, 07:48:42 pm »
Win Rates for cards when they are only gained by one player. *Note: The average win rate for top-20 players is 65%. Naturally, the average win rate for all players is 50%.
| Card Name | All Players% | Top-20 Players Only% |
| Colony: | 78.6% | 93.5% |
| Goons: | 68.2% | 87.5% |
| Butcher: | 67.4% | 85.3% |
| Province: | 66.7% | 85.3% |
| Minion: | 66.6% | 77.1% |
| Vineyard: | 65.3% | 80.2% |
| King'sCourt: | 65.3% | 77.6% |
| Witch: | 62.5% | 77.7% |
| Baker: | 61.5% | 74.4% |
| Journeyman: | 61.3% | 76.3% |
| GrandMarket: | 60.8% | 73.2% |
| Masterpiece: | 60.6% | 67.6% |
| Mountebank: | 60.2% | 80.7% |
| Peddler: | 59.9% | 79.6% |
| Platinum: | 59.3% | 81.8% |
| BorderVillage: | 58.1% | 80.4% |
| Wharf: | 57.9% | 72.7% |
| Margrave: | 57.8% | 75.3% |
| WishingWell: | 57.5% | 69% |
| Catacombs: | 57.2% | 70.6% |
| Governor: | 57.1% | 73.9% |
| MerchantGuild: | 57% | 74.2% |
| Beggar: | 56.8% | 75.6% |
| GhostShip: | 56.2% | 77.1% |
| Explorer: | 55.9% | 72.5% |
| HornofPlenty: | 55.8% | 76.3% |
| Mint: | 55.8% | 78.8% |
| Library: | 55.8% | 69.9% |
| HuntingParty: | 55.7% | 70.3% |
| HuntingGrounds: | 54.7% | 78.6% |
| Ill-GottenGains: | 54.5% | 66.3% |
| MerchantShip: | 54.4% | 69.2% |
| Estate: | 54.1% | 69.9% |
| Laboratory: | 54.1% | 75.9% |
| MiningVillage: | 53.5% | 70.4% |
| Bazaar: | 53.3% | 72% |
| Masquerade: | 53.2% | 76.3% |
| Rogue: | 52.9% | 75.4% |
| Warehouse: | 52.8% | 61.6% |
| Pawn: | 52.8% | 73.3% |
| Festival: | 52.8% | 75.6% |
| Nobles: | 52.8% | 71.2% |
| Farmland: | 52.8% | 72% |
| ScryingPool: | 52.7% | 72.1% |
| Armory: | 52.7% | 70.6% |
| Apothecary: | 52.6% | 73% |
| Stonemason: | 52.6% | 63.2% |
| Possession: | 52.5% | 73.2% |
| Crossroads: | 52.3% | 68.8% |
| CountingHouse: | 52.2% | 69.7% |
| Menagerie: | 52.1% | 71.4% |
| JackOfAllTrades: | 52% | 63.4% |
| Copper: | 52% | 67.8% |
| CandlestickMaker: | 51.9% | 66.2% |
| Embassy: | 51.7% | 68.5% |
| WanderingMinstrel: | 51.6% | 66.7% |
| Hamlet: | 51.4% | 64.8% |
| Apprentice: | 51.3% | 71.6% |
| Altar: | 51.3% | 68% |
| BanditCamp: | 51.2% | 66.7% |
| Chancellor: | 51% | 69.6% |
| Familiar: | 51% | 74.7% |
| Scheme: | 50.9% | 69.3% |
| Mystic: | 50.9% | 65.5% |
| Hermit: | 50.7% | 64.3% |
| Scavenger: | 50.6% | 66.7% |
| Conspirator: | 50.5% | 72.2% |
| Quarry: | 50.5% | 67.4% |
| Highway: | 50.5% | 68.3% |
| Oracle: | 50.3% | 57.6% |
| HorseTraders: | 50.3% | 62.5% |
| Vault: | 50% | 60.2% |
| Fairgrounds: | 50% | 61.5% |
| ThroneRoom: | 50% | 64.8% |
| Harem: | 49.9% | 67.1% |
| Bridge: | 49.9% | 74.3% |
| Herald: | 49.9% | 62.9% |
| Counterfeit: | 49.8% | 70% |
| Workshop: | 49.8% | 62.3% |
| PearlDiver: | 49.8% | 65.4% |
| Worker'sVillage: | 49.8% | 66.7% |
| PoorHouse: | 49.7% | 62.7% |
| TradingPost: | 49.7% | 68.7% |
| JunkDealer: | 49.7% | 66.7% |
| Market: | 49.7% | 63.6% |
| City: | 49.5% | 80.9% |
| GreatHall: | 49.5% | 61.9% |
| FishingVillage: | 49.5% | 68.1% |
| Duchess: | 49.4% | 65.3% |
| Watchtower: | 49.3% | 68.1% |
| Inn: | 49.3% | 72% |
| Duke: | 49.1% | 64.6% |
| Treasury: | 49% | 71.2% |
| Contraband: | 49% | 75.8% |
| Rabble: | 48.9% | 72.9% |
| Fool'sGold: | 48.8% | 64.1% |
| Venture: | 48.7% | 67.7% |
| FarmingVillage: | 48.7% | 74.1% |
| Herbalist: | 48.6% | 72.1% |
| Ironmonger: | 48.6% | 62.5% |
| Stables: | 48.6% | 62.7% |
| Steward: | 48.6% | 54.8% |
| Courtyard: | 48.6% | 64.7% |
| Salvager: | 48.5% | 72.6% |
| Tournament: | 48.5% | 80% |
| Torturer: | 48.4% | 67.9% |
| Fortress: | 48.3% | 66.7% |
| Ambassador: | 48.2% | 62.5% |
| Sage: | 48.1% | 61.6% |
| SeaHag: | 48% | 63.1% |
| Squire: | 47.9% | 69.8% |
| Village: | 47.9% | 62.3% |
| Moneylender: | 47.9% | 75.6% |
| RoyalSeal: | 47.8% | 60% |
| Chapel: | 47.8% | 63.2% |
| Haggler: | 47.8% | 66.2% |
| BandofMisfits: | 47.8% | 65.8% |
| Feast: | 47.7% | 64.8% |
| Plaza: | 47.7% | 62.7% |
| Count: | 47.6% | 56.8% |
| Duchy: | 47.6% | 62.7% |
| Haven: | 47.5% | 58.1% |
| Swindler: | 47.4% | 65.2% |
| Woodcutter: | 47.4% | 66.1% |
| Gardens: | 47.2% | 62.2% |
| Remodel: | 47.2% | 65.4% |
| Mine: | 46.9% | 61.5% |
| BlackMarket: | 46.9% | 69.1% |
| Hoard: | 46.9% | 61.7% |
| Adventurer: | 46.8% | 73.9% |
| Gold: | 46.8% | 66.9% |
| ShantyTown: | 46.7% | 62.1% |
| Embargo: | 46.6% | 68.9% |
| Outpost: | 46.4% | 69.2% |
| Bank: | 46.3% | 65.3% |
| Urchin: | 46.2% | 57.6% |
| Smithy: | 46.1% | 66.4% |
| Cultist: | 46% | 72.1% |
| Lighthouse: | 46% | 58.8% |
| Procession: | 45.9% | 63.5% |
| NativeVillage: | 45.9% | 58% |
| Remake: | 45.8% | 70.6% |
| CouncilRoom: | 45.8% | 59.1% |
| Doctor: | 45.8% | 59% |
| NomadCamp: | 45.6% | 61.2% |
| Loan: | 45.6% | 62.1% |
| Mandarin: | 45.5% | 68% |
| Rebuild: | 45.4% | 61.5% |
| Vagrant: | 45.4% | 59.5% |
| Tactician: | 44.9% | 63% |
| Cartographer: | 44.9% | 62.8% |
| Expand: | 44.9% | 64.1% |
| TradeRoute: | 44.8% | 63.9% |
| Ironworks: | 44.7% | 62% |
| FortuneTeller: | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| Militia: | 44.6% | 57.5% |
| Marauder: | 44.5% | 68.3% |
| Baron: | 44.4% | 63.1% |
| Navigator: | 44.3% | 56.3% |
| Cellar: | 44.1% | 68.1% |
| Monument: | 44% | 71% |
| Bureaucrat: | 43.9% | 58.3% |
| Upgrade: | 43.8% | 57.1% |
| Taxman: | 43.6% | 71.2% |
| Potion: | 43.6% | 64.2% |
| Storeroom: | 43.6% | 59.7% |
| Moat: | 43.5% | 66.7% |
| Graverobber: | 43.3% | 51.9% |
| MarketSquare: | 43.2% | 60.5% |
| Caravan: | 43.2% | 69.2% |
| Island: | 43% | 57.9% |
| Lookout: | 42.7% | 64.6% |
| Smugglers: | 42.6% | 61.6% |
| Cutpurse: | 42.6% | 56.5% |
| Cache: | 42.5% | 46.4% |
| Harvest: | 42.2% | 71.4% |
| YoungWitch: | 42% | 64.7% |
| Advisor: | 41.6% | 64.4% |
| Alchemist: | 41.6% | 71.4% |
| Silver: | 41.5% | 54.8% |
| Golem: | 41.5% | 58.9% |
| Soothsayer: | 41.5% | 57.4% |
| TreasureMap: | 41.4% | 54% |
| Bishop: | 41.3% | 61% |
| Curse: | 41.3% | 54.3% |
| Feodum: | 41.2% | 55.4% |
| Trader: | 41% | 66.7% |
| DeathCart: | 41% | 56.8% |
| Develop: | 40.9% | 63% |
| Tunnel: | 40.8% | 62.5% |
| SpiceMerchant: | 40.7% | 63.2% |
| Pillage: | 40.7% | 60.3% |
| Rats: | 40.5% | 46.5% |
| Oasis: | 40.4% | 56.2% |
| Spy: | 40.3% | 53.1% |
| SilkRoad: | 40.2% | 43.3% |
| Philosopher'sStone: | 39.3% | 53.1% |
| SecretChamber: | 38.8% | 50% |
| Forager: | 38.7% | 52% |
| Forge: | 38.2% | 57.6% |
| Jester: | 38% | 59.4% |
| NobleBrigand: | 37.7% | 47.3% |
| Talisman: | 37.5% | 53.3% |
| Transmute: | 36% | 60.9% |
| Saboteur: | 35.9% | 50.9% |
| Thief: | 35.7% | 38.9% |
| Scout: | 35.6% | 62.9% |
| University: | 33.1% | 41.1% |
| Coppersmith: | 32.5% | 54.2% |
| Tribute: | 31.1% | 54.1% |
| PirateShip: | 24.3% | 46.4% |
25
Dominion General Discussion / Re: More data mining: Card "strength"
« on: January 31, 2015, 06:51:07 pm »Here's a fairly simple metric I'd like to see: Take the games in which exactly one player gains a card, then find in what percentage of those games the player who got the card won. Obviously this won't tell the entire story (true of any metric), but I like simple, intuitive things in general, when people can both understand the metric and its limitations.
I have that data. I'll post it shortly.