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« on: January 31, 2012, 04:13:20 pm »
* Note, I'm not talking specifically about Peddler, but about Peddler-like cards that give +1 Action, +1 Card, +$1 and maybe another bonus
Okay, so I got bored on the running machine in the gym today and started thinking about BM decks. Specifically I was thinking about what BM decks should do when they hit exactly 5. Traditional thinking seems to be that you should buy a couple of terminal bombs (like Witch, JoaT or Mounteback) or drawing cards (like Envoy or Smithy) and if there are none available or you already have too many terminals (2 seems to be the magic number) then buy silver. Cards like Market, Treasury and Highway are thought to be too slow.
But I started wondering about this. Let's say you are given a straight-up choice between Silver and Market. When you draw Silver it gives a free $2, whereas Market gives you a free $1 plus a card and a Buy. If we assume the +1 Buy is useless (to simplify things) that means to pick the Silver you have to value $1 more than a card. Or, to put it another way, the average card in your deck must be worth less than a Copper. This doesn't seem right to me. The only time the average card in your deck should be worth less than a Copper in a BM deck should be turns 1-5. And even if you face the decision on turn 1 or 2 (due to a 5/2 split) you have to assume that over the course of the game, the extra card from Market will be worth more than $1 more often than it is worth less than $1.
If we consider that the 'gravy' on the card (+1 Buy on Market, Topdeck on Treasury etc) could be useful on occasions, doesn't this mean that BM decks should be picking Peddlers over Silver? And if this is the case then at what point do they cease to be BM decks?
Or am I missing something fundamental?
