There was a time when I thought Innovation is not a very skillful game as it is too swingy and luck dependent. At that time I also had trouble improving my record against the
AI which stucked around 50-50, so I figured the game is just like that.
How wrong I was.
As it turns out, there is a healthy skill curve in innovation. Near level 30, now I can beat level 5's probably 6 out of 7 times; on the other hand, my record against lv 40s is miserable. Nevertheless, the game is still very swingy and depends really sometimes on one or two key cards you draw. So, what is the difference between a good player and a bad one?
Here are a few observations I have in the games I've played. They can roughly be categorized in the following three different categories:
1. Understanding the game flowThis part probably makes the most difference. Lots of mistakes are made because the player does not realize that different dogmas are not made to be equal. Here are some typical examples one should probably never do in the early game:
Use Code of Laws when you are still in age one, or when you have no immediate benefit from doing so.
Use Agriculture/Pottery to score in age one or two.
Dogma Writing.
Continue to draw when opponent has Clothing.
To understand why, one can look into three different aspects of the game:
(i) Early scoring and achieving is potent.
An early achievement denies one achievement for your opponent. Furthermore, with enough score teching is achieving. This is why Clothing and Metalworking are the most important scoring cards in age 1. They score the cards in the drawing pile therefore help you tech at the same time. On the other hand:
(ii) Icon dominance is crucial for the mid game.
To be more specific, in order to block/support fermentation and machinery, one needs a few leaves to be on the board. For the mid game compass/enterprise/banking, a few crowns can be helpful too. This is also why Metalworking is potent, as it helps drawing those icons into your hand. For example, pottery is an extremely important age one card that is actually better kept in hand for some time, and Metalworking can just do that for you. If you didn't draw Pottery, Metalworking can score the threatening fermentation (less so for machinery as it is less likely to be dogmaed in age 3.) In contrast, scoring by Pottery or Agriculture does not improve your board at all, and is very slow early on.
(iii) Don't play for a specific card unless you have it.
Before going into this, we should note a few things. Firstly, splaying left is not very useful. More often than not you just get one more castle, which does very little even on dominating the castles as there are a bunch of cards offering 3 castles. Using one action (and one potentially useful card!) solely for this purpose is probably not a good idea. In fact, splaying left in the base game is mostly only for one specific card: Paper. But using code of laws repeatedly does not help you draw it.
As I have discussed
here, starting immediately with Writing and drawing into twos is generally not very promising. At best you can grab Math or Monotheism when your opponent is not going for castles. In addition, leaving your opponent in age one with those two-in-one cards as well as potent cards such as Clothing and Metalworking is just bad.
Going so much into specifics of the early game, let me go back and comment on the generalities of the game flow I perceive. In age 1-3, it's a competition of massive scoring, and icons (especially leaves) on the board. It is probably reasonable to say that if one loses on both front (or just horribly on the first) the game is mostly lost. In the middle ages 3-7, the game is more of a mixture, depending really on what you draw. If the game is more or less tied going into this era, then crowns and factories become more important. On the other hand during this period one hardly has time building up his board, and it is more about better execution and tactics with regard to the specific draw in the game. In the late ages 8-10, there are a few types of competitive games: one is a techie trying to cash in by scoring/achieving or drawing 11 before his opponent can get 6 achievements. Another type is the icon dominating player playing catch up on achievements; in this case he usually tries to kill off his opponent's score pile, gain control, and achieve for himself. His main threat is often from his opponent drawing into those late age nasty clock or non-demand demand cards. If two players enter this era on more or less equal footing, then the game is probably on a coin flip.
2. Timing and efficiencyAfter understanding the game flow, one realizes there are a few actions that are just wrong to take. Beyond that, however, sometimes there are a few reasonable actions to take. To decide between which, it is all about timing and efficiency. For example:
(i) When you want to dogma an action in hand exactly once in the near future, you probably should not meld it using the second action in your turn.
This is because by not melding it you do not give your opponent time to prevent it. Typical examples are Engineering and Machinery, but it also applies to Compass, enterprise and so on. Sure a better opponent would probably prevent it to some extent anyway, sometimes they will still rely on their luck hoping that you have not drawn those cards yet. Melding it just gives those chances away.
(ii) When you achieve, you have just wasted an action if your opponent is not in a position to achieve or to threat your score. This one is pretty simple, but I see this error all the time. In age 1-3, one cannot score more than 4 points using a single action except using Clothing or Metalworking. So if your opponent is more than 4 points away from the achievement you are trying to achieve, he cannot grab the achievement next turn. Achieving here is clearly not the most important thing to do, and one should probably treat it as sort-of a last resort (comparable to draw a card) in this scenario.
(iii) When to claim World via Translation? If you have no better things to do then sure, but often even that is not a good sign. Claiming World (and to a lesser extent, Universe and Empire) using their corresponding special dogma is a good thing if you can just do that along the things you are going to do anyway, but not so much so if you have to spend a few actions for it. This is because World and Universe, and to a lesser extent, Empire are special achievement that are almost impossible to get in early-mid game via the normal ways. Getting them is thus only half as efficient as the regular achievements as the denial part is absent. Monument and Wonder, on the other hands sit somewhere in between as they are more likely to be taken.
3. Do not miss your chances!Sometimes your opponent cannot help but just have to leave a giant opening for you. Those games are your fair share to win, so do not miss them!
(i) Dogma clothing if it can score two 2's, even if you have nothing to meld. This one is just sooo big.
(ii) If you draw into Coal/Canning early with factory dominance, spam them!
(iii) return a 1 and then share Sailing/Mysticism. Share Domestication when opponent still has useless 1's in hand.
(iv) Compass/Road Building shenanigans.
(v) sharing Alchemy and Physics.
There are probably some little things here and there that I forgot to mention, or I didn't find appropriate places to fit them in. Maybe I'll eat my words when I am at a higher level. But if that is the case I certainly hope those higher ranked players come out and make me eat my words!