Urchin/MercenaryUrchin is one of the most despised cards in dominion. The reason for this is simple. It is often a card you will pay the price for ignoring, and you mostly rely on luck to collide urchins and get the mercenary. Here is a link to an article with urchin collision probabilities(
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=10550.msg349881#msg349881). With no draw or engine present on the board it can lead to a rather claustrophobic game in which you will begin every hand with 3 or 4 cards. It can also lead to difficult decisions, for example: You have a village, mercenary and a few junk cards in hand and your opponent plays mercenary. You now have to decide if you want to just mercenary trash and blindly dead draw, or play village and risk have to trash a more useful card in order to activate mercenary.
Why is Urchin/Mercenary so critical? When can I ignore it?The most critical aspect of urchin/mercenary is the trashing. The discard attack can also be brutal at times. So, the combination of thinning and limiting your opponent’s next turn makes getting a mercenary a critical step in building a winning deck. So, in order to consider ignoring urchin/mercenary there has to be more efficient trashing (chapel/remake, steward, possibly forager), also, if there is another hand reduction attack (goons, militia, or ghost ship).
One other thing to consider with urchin/mercenary whether to get a second mercenary. Generally this is preferred because you will play mercenary more often and therefore thin more quickly. However, this is a situational decision.
How do I navigate an Urchin/Mercenary game if there’s no way to increase my hand size?An urchin/mercenary game with no draw is never a pleasant experience. What to look for in this scenario is non-terminal money (Market, Grand Market, Treasury, Bazaar, Ironmonger etc). Oasis is also a consideration, though you don’t really want to decrease your hand size more than it already is. If there are cantrips for payload then you should be mindful of the number of stop cards in your deck. If you know you will start every hand with 4 cards, then you don’t want more than 3 stop cards. Once you have trashed down, mercenary becomes a stop card.
Urchin/mercenary can’t itself win you the game, but it’s often the most critical component of building a deck that does win you the game.
Works well with?-Beggar? Can provide mercenary fuel in an engine, but is more of a situational kingdom dependent component of a mercenary engine
-Fortress, also serves as Mercenary fuel
Doesn’t work well with-More efficient trashers i.e. chapel, remake, steward, possibly forager
Counters to Mercenary
-Menagerie
-Haven (Prepare for a better turn next hand by giving a little of this hand)
-Draw to size X (Library, Jack of all Trades, Watchtower)
-Horse Traders
-Any form of draw in an engine