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Topics - TheExpressicist

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1
Game Reports / Those piles are fickle little creatures
« on: February 08, 2015, 10:24:14 am »


Code: [Select]
Crossroads, Herbalist, University, Advisor, Bandit Camp, Count, Mandarin, Royal Seal, Tribute, Wharf
https://www.gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?20150208/log.5144ecf7e4b0bef57ec85b7d.1423405598265.txt

So first, the shameless gloating; that final turn buy/gain of 4xAdvisors+Province+Estate pileout for the 1-point win was one of the more satisfying victories I've had in recent memory.

Now for the questions. I'm curious as to everyone else's take on this game.

1. What's the best open here? My thought was, obviously Wharf is going to be the dominant card; it's a shelters game so I have necro for +Actions, and Crossroads is on the board which can soak up some extra coin. So I didn't think the +Actions from University would be necessary early on. I don't usually like to open Silver/Silver (and then I wound up picking up a third silver on T3.... yuk.) but I thought Potion-Silver would be too slow. However, although my deck initially loaded up faster, his four Universities really allowed him to ramp up his deck to the next level once his engine started going.

2. At what point do you buy the Count? I thought his T3 purchase was too soon, since his deck was already going to be a bit slower due to the University open. And my T11 purchase was too late, but I felt like I had to win the Wharf pile to stand a chance, so I didn't want to use up any $5 buy/gains.

3. Was it a mistake for my opponent to go after Bandit Camps so heavily? I deliberately ignored them until the end because I thought that the Spoils would gum up the engine. My thought was, I would have gone for a mix of Advisors and Bandit Camps. He needed card draw due to losing the Wharf split. And since he had 4 Universities, he'd be in a much better position to control the pile-out of Bandit Camps if he needed to end the game.

2
Dominion League / Unrated games?
« on: February 06, 2015, 07:37:52 am »
I can't be the first to have thought of this but doesn't playing the final game or two as unrated introduce the potential for the host to cheat and use a custom deck? Or just keep randomizing until they find a kingdom they are comfortable with?

I have a few ideas for how to fix this but before I go too far down the rabbit hole, I wanted to see if this was something even really worth fixing.

(for the record, this is absolutely NOT meant to be an implicit accusation of cheating. In fact, in the only league match Ive played so far, I was the host.)

3
Help! / League match feedback
« on: February 06, 2015, 06:34:44 am »
Two games:



Code: [Select]
Moat, Watchtower, Cutpurse, Militia, Navigator, Spy, Band of Misfits, Mandarin, Margrave, Soothsayer
https://www.gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?20150206/log.516e5516e4b082c74d7d5f0c.1423217788243.txt

At first I was feeling pretty good about the Watchtowers/Moats, since I was managing to miss all of his Soothsayers. But as the game progressed and he was able to consistently buy Provinces despite having 4 curses, I was thinking that maybe that extra card from Soothsayer helps out more than I gave it credit for. The last turn where I collided Militia and Moat really hurt.


4
Game Reports / what is this i dont even
« on: January 30, 2015, 11:44:15 pm »


Code: [Select]
Poor House, Chapel, Herbalist, Lookout, Sage, Trade Route, Treasure Map, Market, Rabble, Border Village
Here's the log: https://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?20150130/log.516e5516e4b082c74d7d5f0c.1422678603072.txt but, to really achieve the full effect, I'm going to splice in the chat log at the appropriate moments.

------------ Game Setup ------------
Supply cards: Poor House, Chapel, Herbalist, Lookout, Sage, Trade Route, Treasure Map, Market, Rabble, Border Village, Copper, Silver, Gold, Estate, Duchy, Province, Curse
Rating system: pro
TheExpressicist - starting cards: Estate, Estate, Estate, Copper, Copper, Copper, Copper, Copper, Copper, Copper
Money Spender - starting cards: Estate, Estate, Estate, Copper, Copper, Copper, Copper, Copper, Copper, Copper
TheExpressicist - shuffles deck
Money Spender - shuffles deck
TheExpressicist - draws Copper, Copper, Copper, Copper, Estate
Money Spender - draws Copper, Estate, Estate, Copper, Copper
Money Spender glhf
TheExpressicist you too
TheExpressicist i so want to open Chapel - Treasure Map
Money Spender not a bad strategy
TheExpressicist But I just cant bring myself to do it


---------- Money Spender: turn 1 ----------
Money Spender - plays 3 Copper
Money Spender - buys Lookout
Money Spender - gains Lookout
Money Spender - draws Copper, Copper, Copper, Estate, Copper
 
---------- TheExpressicist: turn 1 ----------
TheExpressicist - plays 4 Copper
TheExpressicist - buys Lookout
TheExpressicist - gains Lookout
TheExpressicist - draws Copper, Copper, Estate, Estate, Copper
 
---------- Money Spender: turn 2 ----------
Money Spender - plays 4 Copper
Money Spender - buys Chapel
Money Spender - gains Chapel
Money Spender - shuffles deck
Money Spender - draws Copper, Estate, Copper, Estate, Estate
 
---------- TheExpressicist: turn 2 ----------
TheExpressicist - plays 3 Copper
TheExpressicist - buys Chapel
TheExpressicist - gains Chapel
TheExpressicist - shuffles deck
TheExpressicist - draws Copper, Copper, Estate, Copper, Estate
 
---------- Money Spender: turn 3 ----------
Money Spender - plays 2 Copper
Money Spender - buys Poor House
Money Spender - gains Poor House
Money Spender - draws Copper, Chapel, Lookout, Copper, Copper
 
---------- TheExpressicist: turn 3 ----------
TheExpressicist - plays 3 Copper
TheExpressicist - buys Silver
TheExpressicist - gains Silver
TheExpressicist - draws Copper, Chapel, Copper, Lookout, Copper
 
---------- Money Spender: turn 4 ----------
Money Spender - plays Lookout
Money Spender - shuffles deck
Money Spender - trashes Copper
Money Spender - discards Copper
Money Spender - places Copper on top of deck
Money Spender - plays Chapel
Money Spender - trashes Copper, Copper, Copper
Money Spender - draws Copper, Estate, Estate, Poor House, Copper
 
---------- TheExpressicist: turn 4 ----------
TheExpressicist - plays Lookout
TheExpressicist - shuffles deck
TheExpressicist - trashes Estate
TheExpressicist - discards Copper
TheExpressicist - places Copper on top of deck
TheExpressicist - plays Chapel
TheExpressicist - trashes Copper, Copper, Copper
TheExpressicist - draws Copper, Copper, Estate, Silver, Estate
 
---------- Money Spender: turn 5 ----------
Money Spender - plays Poor House
Money Spender - reveals hand: Copper, Estate, Estate, Copper
Money Spender - plays 2 Copper
Money Spender - buys Treasure Map
Money Spender - gains Treasure Map
Money Spender - draws Estate
Money Spender - shuffles deck
Money Spender - draws Poor House, Copper, Chapel, Estate
 
---------- TheExpressicist: turn 5 ----------
TheExpressicist - plays 2 Copper, 1 Silver
TheExpressicist - buys Treasure Map
TheExpressicist - gains Treasure Map
TheExpressicist - draws Copper
TheExpressicist - shuffles deck
TheExpressicist - draws Copper, Chapel, Copper, Estate
 
---------- Money Spender: turn 6 ----------
Money Spender - plays Chapel
Money Spender - trashes Estate, Estate, Copper
Money Spender - draws Copper, Treasure Map, Lookout, Copper, Estate
 
---------- TheExpressicist: turn 6 ----------
TheExpressicist - plays Chapel
TheExpressicist - trashes Copper, Copper, Copper, Estate
TheExpressicist - draws Copper, Lookout, Treasure Map, Silver, Estate

TheExpressicist Oh shit
TheExpressicist lol
Money Spender ?
TheExpressicist I meant to leave 1 copper
TheExpressicist left myself with a single silver and a single copper


---------- Money Spender: turn 7 ----------
Money Spender - plays Lookout
Money Spender - shuffles deck
Money Spender - trashes Chapel
Money Spender - discards Poor House
Money Spender - shuffles deck
Money Spender - draws Copper, Copper, Estate, Lookout, Treasure Map
 
---------- TheExpressicist: turn 7 ----------
TheExpressicist - plays Lookout
TheExpressicist - shuffles deck
TheExpressicist - trashes Chapel
TheExpressicist - plays 1 Copper, 1 Silver
TheExpressicist - buys Silver
TheExpressicist - gains Silver
TheExpressicist - shuffles deck
TheExpressicist - draws Silver, Treasure Map, Copper, Lookout, Estate
 
---------- Money Spender: turn 8 ----------
Money Spender - draws Poor House
Money Spender - shuffles deck
Money Spender - draws Lookout, Treasure Map, Estate, Copper
 
---------- TheExpressicist: turn 8 ----------
TheExpressicist - plays 1 Silver, 1 Copper
TheExpressicist - buys Silver
TheExpressicist - gains Silver
TheExpressicist - draws Silver
TheExpressicist - shuffles deck
TheExpressicist - draws Silver, Lookout, Copper, Treasure Map
 
---------- Money Spender: turn 9 ----------
Money Spender - plays Lookout
Money Spender - trashes Copper
Money Spender - plays Poor House
Money Spender - reveals hand: Treasure Map, Estate, Copper
Money Spender - plays 1 Copper
Money Spender - buys Treasure Map
Money Spender - gains Treasure Map
Money Spender - shuffles deck
Money Spender - draws Copper, Lookout, Estate, Treasure Map, Treasure Map
 
---------- TheExpressicist: turn 9 ----------
TheExpressicist - plays Lookout
TheExpressicist - trashes Estate
TheExpressicist - discards Silver
TheExpressicist - plays Treasure Map
TheExpressicist - trashes Treasure Map
TheExpressicist umm
TheExpressicist wow
TheExpressicist i am just
TheExpressicist haha
Money Spender gg?
TheExpressicist just misclick after misclick
TheExpressicist ill keep chugging along
Money Spender Ouch.

TheExpressicist - plays 2 Silver, 1 Copper
TheExpressicist - buys Treasure Map
TheExpressicist - gains Treasure Map
TheExpressicist - shuffles deck
TheExpressicist - draws Silver, Silver, Lookout, Silver, Copper
 
---------- Money Spender: turn 10 ----------
Money Spender - plays Lookout
Money Spender - trashes Poor House
Money Spender - plays Treasure Map
Money Spender - trashes Treasure Map, Treasure Map
Money Spender - gains Gold
Money Spender - gains Gold
Money Spender - gains Gold
Money Spender - gains Gold
Money Spender - draws Gold, Gold, Gold, Gold
Money Spender - shuffles deck
Money Spender - draws Estate

Money Spender this is going to be a lot of fun for me!
TheExpressicist i have a non-zero chance of recovering


---------- TheExpressicist: turn 10 ----------
TheExpressicist - plays 3 Silver, 1 Copper
TheExpressicist - buys Treasure Map
TheExpressicist - gains Treasure Map
TheExpressicist - draws Treasure Map
TheExpressicist - shuffles deck
TheExpressicist - draws Lookout, Copper, Silver, Silver
 
---------- Money Spender: turn 11 ----------
Money Spender - plays 4 Gold
Money Spender - buys Border Village
Money Spender - gains Border Village
Money Spender - gains Market
Money Spender - draws Copper, Lookout
Money Spender - shuffles deck
Money Spender - draws Market, Border Village, Gold
 
---------- TheExpressicist: turn 11 ----------
TheExpressicist - plays Lookout
TheExpressicist - trashes Silver
TheExpressicist - discards Treasure Map
TheExpressicist - plays 2 Silver, 1 Copper
TheExpressicist - buys Market
TheExpressicist - gains Market
TheExpressicist - shuffles deck
TheExpressicist - draws Market, Silver, Silver, Lookout, Treasure Map
 
---------- Money Spender: turn 12 ----------
Money Spender - plays Border Village
Money Spender - draws Gold
Money Spender - plays Lookout
Money Spender - trashes Estate
Money Spender - discards Gold
Money Spender - places Gold on top of deck
Money Spender - plays Market
Money Spender - draws Gold
Money Spender - plays 3 Gold, 1 Copper
Money Spender - buys Gold
Money Spender - gains Gold
Money Spender - buys Rabble
Money Spender - gains Rabble
Money Spender - shuffles deck
Money Spender - draws Gold, Gold, Gold, Market, Lookout
 
---------- TheExpressicist: turn 12 ----------
TheExpressicist - plays Lookout
TheExpressicist - trashes Copper
TheExpressicist - discards Treasure Map
TheExpressicist - plays Market
TheExpressicist - shuffles deck
TheExpressicist - draws Treasure Map
TheExpressicist - plays Treasure Map
TheExpressicist - trashes Treasure Map, Treasure Map
TheExpressicist - gains Gold
TheExpressicist - gains Gold
TheExpressicist - gains Gold
TheExpressicist - gains Gold
TheExpressicist - plays 2 Silver
TheExpressicist - buys Market
TheExpressicist - gains Market
TheExpressicist - draws Gold, Gold, Gold, Gold
TheExpressicist - shuffles deck
TheExpressicist - draws Silver
 
---------- Money Spender: turn 13 ----------
Money Spender - plays Market
Money Spender - draws Copper
Money Spender - plays 3 Gold, 1 Copper
Money Spender - buys Province
Money Spender - gains Province
Money Spender - buys Silver
Money Spender - gains Silver
Money Spender - draws Gold, Border Village, Gold, Rabble
Money Spender - shuffles deck
Money Spender - draws Silver
 
---------- TheExpressicist: turn 13 ----------
TheExpressicist - plays 4 Gold, 1 Silver
TheExpressicist - buys Province
TheExpressicist - gains Province
TheExpressicist - draws Market, Lookout, Silver, Market
TheExpressicist - shuffles deck
TheExpressicist - draws Gold
 
---------- Money Spender: turn 14 ----------
Money Spender - plays Border Village
Money Spender - draws Gold
Money Spender - plays Rabble
Money Spender - draws Gold, Gold, Copper
TheExpressicist - reveals Gold, Gold, Silver
TheExpressicist - discards: Gold, Gold, Silver
Money Spender - plays 5 Gold, 1 Silver, 1 Copper
Money Spender - buys Province
Money Spender - gains Province
Money Spender - draws Province, Lookout, Market
Money Spender - shuffles deck
Money Spender - draws Rabble, Copper
 
---------- TheExpressicist: turn 14 ----------
TheExpressicist - plays Market
TheExpressicist - draws Province
TheExpressicist - plays Market
TheExpressicist - draws Gold
TheExpressicist - plays 2 Gold, 1 Silver
TheExpressicist - buys Province
TheExpressicist - gains Province
TheExpressicist - buys Estate
TheExpressicist - gains Estate
TheExpressicist - shuffles deck
TheExpressicist - draws Market, Gold, Gold, Lookout, Estate
 
---------- Money Spender: turn 15 ----------
Money Spender - plays Market
Money Spender - draws Gold
Money Spender - plays Rabble
Money Spender - draws Border Village, Gold, Gold
TheExpressicist - reveals Silver, Province, Province
TheExpressicist - discards Silver
TheExpressicist - places Province on top of deck
TheExpressicist - places Province on top of deck
Money Spender - plays 3 Gold, 1 Copper
Money Spender - buys Province
Money Spender - gains Province
Money Spender - buys Estate
Money Spender - gains Estate
Money Spender - draws Gold, Silver, Gold, Province
Money Spender - shuffles deck
Money Spender - draws Estate
 
---------- TheExpressicist: turn 15 ----------
TheExpressicist - plays Market
TheExpressicist - draws Province
TheExpressicist - plays 2 Gold
TheExpressicist - buys Border Village
TheExpressicist - gains Border Village
TheExpressicist - gains Rabble
TheExpressicist - draws Province, Silver, Market, Gold, Gold
 
---------- Money Spender: turn 16 ----------
Money Spender - plays 2 Gold, 1 Silver
Money Spender - buys Province
Money Spender - gains Province
Money Spender - draws Province, Lookout, Province, Rabble, Copper
 
---------- TheExpressicist: turn 16 ----------
TheExpressicist - plays Market
TheExpressicist - shuffles deck
TheExpressicist - draws Estate
TheExpressicist - plays 2 Gold, 1 Silver

*long delay*
TheExpressicist okay, hmmm.
Money Spender making it a little closer
TheExpressicist basically Im trying to decide if i should just flagrantly violate the PPR

TheExpressicist - buys Province
TheExpressicist - gains Province
TheExpressicist - draws Border Village, Gold, Market, Province, Lookout
 
---------- Money Spender: turn 17 ----------
Money Spender - plays Lookout
Money Spender - trashes Border Village
Money Spender - discards Gold
Money Spender - places Gold on top of deck
Money Spender - plays Rabble
Money Spender - draws Gold, Gold, Market
TheExpressicist - reveals Silver, Gold, Rabble
TheExpressicist - discards: Silver, Gold, Rabble
Money Spender - plays 2 Gold, 1 Copper
Money Spender - buys Duchy
Money Spender - gains Duchy
Money Spender - shuffles deck
Money Spender - draws Province, Gold, Province, Province, Gold

TheExpressicist uh oh
TheExpressicist okay
TheExpressicist that went about how i expected... except for getting boned by rabble
TheExpressicist now i just have to scrape together 13$
 
---------- TheExpressicist: turn 17 ----------
TheExpressicist - plays Lookout
TheExpressicist - shuffles deck
TheExpressicist - trashes Silver
TheExpressicist - discards Province
TheExpressicist - places Rabble on top of deck
TheExpressicist - plays Market
TheExpressicist - draws Rabble
TheExpressicist - plays Border Village
TheExpressicist - draws Gold
TheExpressicist - plays Rabble
TheExpressicist - draws Market, Estate, Gold
Money Spender - reveals Silver, Lookout, Rabble
Money Spender - discards: Silver, Lookout, Rabble
TheExpressicist - plays Market
TheExpressicist - draws Silver
TheExpressicist - plays 3 Gold, 1 Silver
TheExpressicist - buys Province
TheExpressicist - gains Province
TheExpressicist - buys Duchy
TheExpressicist - gains Duchy
TheExpressicist - draws Gold, Province
TheExpressicist - shuffles deck
TheExpressicist - draws Gold, Lookout, Silver
 
------------ Game Over ------------
TheExpressicist - cards: 2 Market, 1 Lookout, 1 Border Village, 1 Rabble, 4 Gold, 1 Silver, 4 Province, 1 Estate, 1 Duchy
TheExpressicist - total victory points: 28
TheExpressicist - turns: 17
 
Money Spender - cards: 1 Lookout, 1 Rabble, 1 Market, 5 Gold, 1 Silver, 1 Copper, 4 Province, 1 Duchy, 1 Estate
Money Spender - total victory points: 28
Money Spender - turns: 17
 
1st place: TheExpressicist
1st place: Money Spender
Money Spender wow
TheExpressicist wow
Money Spender that's ridiculous
TheExpressicist i am officialy the luckiest
Money Spender yep

5
Dominion General Discussion / More data mining: Answering Dominion questions with data
« on: January 30, 2015, 03:40:32 pm »
Update:
There have been a few requests for additional data and I've done some more research that I wanted to share but I don't want to create yet another thread. I'll update this first post with additional data as I collect it.

Card "Strength"

This uses the data gathered from the "Individual Player Analysis" tool, from the games of the Top-20 players as ranked by Isotropish.

Preface:
Firstly, I use the term "strength" quite loosely. In laymen's terms, this chart is a graph of how often a card is gained combined with how often games are won with that card. Each card is assigned a score that will always be a value between 0 and 100. A score of 100 would mean that the card is gained in 100% of the games and you win 100% of the time you gain it. Secondly, the chart uses "Adjusted Win Rate", which is just (Card Win Rate) minus (Average Win Rate). An Adjusted Win Rate of 0% means the card is completely average. (For what it's worth , the average win rate is like 65%).

I feel the need to highlight this: there are many, many, many explanations for why a card with a LOW win%/gain%. There are much fewer explanations for why a card has a HIGH win%/gain%. So although it is safe to assume that a card with a high score is a good card, it is NOT a reasonable assumption that a card with a low score is a bad card..

To reiterate: I would be very careful about how you interpret cards at the middle-to-lower end of the scale. There's a lot more room for cause-effect here: certain cards may make sense to buy only when you're already in a losing position. This does not necessarily reflect on the strength of the card itself. 

Card NameSCOREAdjusted Win%Gain%
Butcher:93.15.7%83%
King'sCourt:93.15.9%82.2%
CandlestickMaker:90.35%79.3%
Squire:90.24.6%81.5%
Peddler:88.45.5%73.6%
Forager:88.43.4%86.1%
WanderingMinstrel:88.34%80.7%
Goons:87.93.1%89.6%
Chapel:87.73.1%88%
GrandMarket:86.84.7%73.5%
Ambassador:86.12.9%84.8%
BorderVillage:862.8%86.5%
Haggler:83.95.2%67.3%
Menagerie:83.13.3%74.7%
Hermit:82.22.6%78.4%
Conspirator:81.94.1%68.5%
Remake:81.83.1%73.3%
City:81.32.9%73.6%
Festival:80.34.8%63.9%
Witch:79.92.2%76.9%
Baker:79.72.9%71.5%
Apprentice:78.13.4%66.4%
Pawn:77.94.3%62.4%
Market:77.64.5%61.3%
Inn:77.53.9%63.3%
Plaza:76.91.1%82.6%
Hamlet:76.81.1%82.3%
NativeVillage:763.9%61.5%
BanditCamp:75.94.1%60.8%
Counterfeit:75.91.5%76.2%
Tactician:75.73.6%62.2%
FarmingVillage:75.54.7%58.5%
Cellar:75.43.6%61.9%
Fortress:75.12.5%66.7%
Wharf:74.50.3%88.9%
ThroneRoom:74.32%69.1%
Masquerade:74.20.4%87.3%
Scheme:73.21.1%74.7%
FishingVillage:72.40.2%83.4%
Ill-GottenGains:72.23.9%57.1%
MerchantGuild:72.12.9%61.3%
Remodel:724.7%54.6%
Minion:71.70.3%80.1%
Altar:71.62.5%62.3%
HuntingParty:71.40.1%82.4%
Cultist:71.21%72.5%
MarketSquare:71.11%71.5%
ScryingPool:701.5%66.8%
GreatHall:69.80.7%72.5%
MiningVillage:681%67.6%
WishingWell:67.22.5%57.2%
Vineyard:66.83.4%53.1%
JunkDealer:66.7-0.3%76.3%
Courtyard:66.3-0.1%73.9%
Tunnel:65.80.6%67.5%
Bridge:64.60.7%64.9%
Mint:64.13.3%50.4%
HornofPlenty:645%44.9%
JackOfAllTrades:64-0.3%72%
GhostShip:63.81.9%56.5%
Apothecary:63.64.6%45.4%
Tournament:63.3-2%93.9%
HuntingGrounds:63.34.6%45%
Worker'sVillage:63.2-1.1%78.3%
Margrave:63.20%67.9%
Crossroads:63.1-0.9%75.7%
Lighthouse:62.6-0.5%71.7%
Mountebank:62.6-1.7%85.7%
Jester:62.33.1%49.3%
Journeyman:62.34.4%44.4%
Quarry:61.70.8%61%
Nobles:61.7-1.4%78.2%
Bazaar:61.2-0.3%67.9%
Warehouse:61.1-1.7%81.2%
Stables:61.1-0.5%68.8%
TradeRoute:60.83.3%46.7%
Caravan:60.5-0.9%71.6%
Treasury:60.34.9%40.8%
Moneylender:60.22.7%48.6%
Possession:606.3%37.3%
Haven:60-0.5%67.8%
Ironworks:59.60.8%58.1%
Alchemist:58.21.9%50.4%
Salvager:58.1-0.4%64.3%
Herald:57.3-2.1%76.9%
Advisor:56.91.9%48.9%
SeaHag:56.90.7%55.9%
Steward:56.9-2.5%79.7%
Swindler:56.4-2.7%80.2%
Island:56.3-1.3%68.1%
Armory:56.14.8%35.3%
Cartographer:56.12.4%45.4%
Upgrade:56.1-1.9%72.6%
Beggar:55.55.3%32.7%
Scavenger:55.31.9%47.1%
ShantyTown:54.5-1.8%69.6%
Stonemason:54.3-1.6%67.9%
BandofMisfits:54.22.3%44%
Watchtower:53.7-0.7%60.7%
Village:53.5-1.1%63.4%
Herbalist:53.56.4%25.5%
YoungWitch:53.21.2%48.8%
Laboratory:53.1-1.7%66.9%
Highway:52.6-2.2%69.4%
Expand:52.52.3%42%
Bishop:520.8%50%
Embargo:51.82.4%40.6%
Oasis:51.7-1.4%62.9%
Library:51.33%36.5%
Militia:51.2-0.8%58.8%
Storeroom:50.71.8%42.3%
Vagrant:49.9-1.7%62.6%
Doctor:49.8-0.2%53.4%
Lookout:49.80.4%50.1%
Contraband:49.76.7%9.6%
Urchin:49.6-4.3%77.6%
Harvest:49.36.5%8.6%
Baron:49.22%39.3%
Ironmonger:48.7-6.2%84.7%
Rebuild:48.6-2.8%67.6%
SpiceMerchant:48.5-2.9%68%
Sage:48.3-1.1%57.2%
MerchantShip:48.23.4%28.8%
Mandarin:485.2%13.7%
Outpost:47.53.3%27.8%
Rabble:47.50.6%46.3%
Mystic:47.11.6%39.2%
Farmland:46.7-0.5%52.3%
Procession:45.51.6%37.1%
Familiar:45-1.2%54.1%
Monument:44.9-1.6%56.3%
Develop:44.81.6%36%
Workshop:44.41.8%34.2%
Torturer:43.9-2%57.4%
Fool'sGold:43.1-2.7%60%
Catacombs:42.7-0.8%49.6%
Duchess:41.80.7%38.6%
PearlDiver:41.8-1.3%51.3%
TradingPost:41.70.4%40.6%
Bank:41.50.8%37.1%
Gardens:40.2-3%58.3%
Explorer:40.12.2%20.3%
Smithy:40-1.4%50%
Smugglers:39.6-1.2%48.5%
HorseTraders:39.5-3.5%59.5%
Fairgrounds:38.7-2%51.5%
University:37.6-5.2%62.6%
Rogue:37.50.4%34.9%
Count:36.9-5.7%62.9%
Feast:36.60.6%31.2%
Marauder:35.5-3.6%55.2%
CouncilRoom:35.2-1.8%46.7%
SilkRoad:33.8-3%51.2%
Harem:32.9-2.2%46.3%
Taxman:32.70.7%22.2%
Soothsayer:32.7-4.5%55.1%
FortuneTeller:32.40.3%26.6%
CountingHouse:30.70.8%9.1%
Masterpiece:29.6-0.1%25.3%
Embassy:29.4-2.8%45.3%
Trader:29.2-1.4%36.9%
Hoard:28.9-4.9%52.1%
Golem:26.2-2.5%39.6%
Duke:26.1-4.5%47.8%
Moat:25.8-3.3%43.5%
Feodum:25.3-2.4%38.2%
DeathCart:24.9-1.2%28.2%
Philosopher'sStone:24-0.4%9.9%
Oracle:23.5-4.1%43.6%
Venture:23.1-1.6%28.6%
Woodcutter:22.8-1.3%24%
Vault:22.1-5.2%45.2%
PoorHouse:21.7-2.6%34%
NomadCamp:21.6-4.2%41.6%
RoyalSeal:20.6-1.3%17.9%
Navigator:19.1-1.7%18.7%
Loan:19.1-3.8%36.9%
Forge:16.9-4.8%37.5%
Scout:16.8-1.8%8.6%
Chancellor:15.7-2.3%16.3%
Cutpurse:14.7-4.7%34.2%
Spy:14.5-3.2%24.8%
PirateShip:13.7-2.5%12%
Mine:12.1-2.9%11.5%
SecretChamber:11.3-4.1%24.2%
Rats:9.9-8.4%33.2%
Talisman:9.8-4.8%25.3%
NobleBrigand:9-4.9%23.6%
Pillage:8.1-5.1%22%
Graverobber:7.9-9.2%30.2%
Tribute:5.7-6%19.9%
Coppersmith:4.7-5.2%7.5%
Saboteur:3.7-8.4%19.5%
Transmute:3.6-5.8%6.5%
Adventurer:3.6-5.8%6.1%
Bureaucrat:3.5-6.3%11.4%
TreasureMap:3.2-8.5%17.5%
Cache:1.2-10.3%8.9%
Thief:1.1-17.2%8.5%
   

*Score is calculated as follows:
(CDF[((Card Win%)-(Average Win%))/(Win% StDev))]+CDF[((Card Gain%)-(Average Gain%))/(Gain% StDev))])*50

In other words: I convert the card's Win and Gain% to a Z-score, then convert that Z-score to a cumulative distribution. I add the cumulative distribution for Wins and Gains together. This results in a number on a scale of 0-2. I multiply that by 50 to result in a scale of 0-100.

In laymen's terms: if the cards were all lined up and ranked according to their gain% and win% (e.g. the most gained card would be 1, the least would be 200something), and you added those two ranks together.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Win Rates for cards when they are only gained by one player. *Note: The average win rate for top-20 players is 65%. Naturally, the average win rate for all players is 50%.
Card NameAll Players%Top-20 Players Only%
Colony:78.6%93.5%
Goons:68.2%87.5%
Butcher:67.4%85.3%
Province:66.7%85.3%
Minion:66.6%77.1%
Vineyard:65.3%80.2%
King'sCourt:65.3%77.6%
Witch:62.5%77.7%
Baker:61.5%74.4%
Journeyman:61.3%76.3%
GrandMarket:60.8%73.2%
Masterpiece:60.6%67.6%
Mountebank:60.2%80.7%
Peddler:59.9%79.6%
Platinum:59.3%81.8%
BorderVillage:58.1%80.4%
Wharf:57.9%72.7%
Margrave:57.8%75.3%
WishingWell:57.5%69%
Catacombs:57.2%70.6%
Governor:57.1%73.9%
MerchantGuild:57%74.2%
Beggar:56.8%75.6%
GhostShip:56.2%77.1%
Explorer:55.9%72.5%
HornofPlenty:55.8%76.3%
Mint:55.8%78.8%
Library:55.8%69.9%
HuntingParty:55.7%70.3%
HuntingGrounds:54.7%78.6%
Ill-GottenGains:54.5%66.3%
MerchantShip:54.4%69.2%
Estate:54.1%69.9%
Laboratory:54.1%75.9%
MiningVillage:53.5%70.4%
Bazaar:53.3%72%
Masquerade:53.2%76.3%
Rogue:52.9%75.4%
Warehouse:52.8%61.6%
Pawn:52.8%73.3%
Festival:52.8%75.6%
Nobles:52.8%71.2%
Farmland:52.8%72%
ScryingPool:52.7%72.1%
Armory:52.7%70.6%
Apothecary:52.6%73%
Stonemason:52.6%63.2%
Possession:52.5%73.2%
Crossroads:52.3%68.8%
CountingHouse:52.2%69.7%
Menagerie:52.1%71.4%
JackOfAllTrades:52%63.4%
Copper:52%67.8%
CandlestickMaker:51.9%66.2%
Embassy:51.7%68.5%
WanderingMinstrel:51.6%66.7%
Hamlet:51.4%64.8%
Apprentice:51.3%71.6%
Altar:51.3%68%
BanditCamp:51.2%66.7%
Chancellor:51%69.6%
Familiar:51%74.7%
Scheme:50.9%69.3%
Mystic:50.9%65.5%
Hermit:50.7%64.3%
Scavenger:50.6%66.7%
Conspirator:50.5%72.2%
Quarry:50.5%67.4%
Highway:50.5%68.3%
Oracle:50.3%57.6%
HorseTraders:50.3%62.5%
Vault:50%60.2%
Fairgrounds:50%61.5%
ThroneRoom:50%64.8%
Harem:49.9%67.1%
Bridge:49.9%74.3%
Herald:49.9%62.9%
Counterfeit:49.8%70%
Workshop:49.8%62.3%
PearlDiver:49.8%65.4%
Worker'sVillage:49.8%66.7%
PoorHouse:49.7%62.7%
TradingPost:49.7%68.7%
JunkDealer:49.7%66.7%
Market:49.7%63.6%
City:49.5%80.9%
GreatHall:49.5%61.9%
FishingVillage:49.5%68.1%
Duchess:49.4%65.3%
Watchtower:49.3%68.1%
Inn:49.3%72%
Duke:49.1%64.6%
Treasury:49%71.2%
Contraband:49%75.8%
Rabble:48.9%72.9%
Fool'sGold:48.8%64.1%
Venture:48.7%67.7%
FarmingVillage:48.7%74.1%
Herbalist:48.6%72.1%
Ironmonger:48.6%62.5%
Stables:48.6%62.7%
Steward:48.6%54.8%
Courtyard:48.6%64.7%
Salvager:48.5%72.6%
Tournament:48.5%80%
Torturer:48.4%67.9%
Fortress:48.3%66.7%
Ambassador:48.2%62.5%
Sage:48.1%61.6%
SeaHag:48%63.1%
Squire:47.9%69.8%
Village:47.9%62.3%
Moneylender:47.9%75.6%
RoyalSeal:47.8%60%
Chapel:47.8%63.2%
Haggler:47.8%66.2%
BandofMisfits:47.8%65.8%
Feast:47.7%64.8%
Plaza:47.7%62.7%
Count:47.6%56.8%
Duchy:47.6%62.7%
Haven:47.5%58.1%
Swindler:47.4%65.2%
Woodcutter:47.4%66.1%
Gardens:47.2%62.2%
Remodel:47.2%65.4%
Mine:46.9%61.5%
BlackMarket:46.9%69.1%
Hoard:46.9%61.7%
Adventurer:46.8%73.9%
Gold:46.8%66.9%
ShantyTown:46.7%62.1%
Embargo:46.6%68.9%
Outpost:46.4%69.2%
Bank:46.3%65.3%
Urchin:46.2%57.6%
Smithy:46.1%66.4%
Cultist:46%72.1%
Lighthouse:46%58.8%
Procession:45.9%63.5%
NativeVillage:45.9%58%
Remake:45.8%70.6%
CouncilRoom:45.8%59.1%
Doctor:45.8%59%
NomadCamp:45.6%61.2%
Loan:45.6%62.1%
Mandarin:45.5%68%
Rebuild:45.4%61.5%
Vagrant:45.4%59.5%
Tactician:44.9%63%
Cartographer:44.9%62.8%
Expand:44.9%64.1%
TradeRoute:44.8%63.9%
Ironworks:44.7%62%
FortuneTeller:44.7%55.3%
Militia:44.6%57.5%
Marauder:44.5%68.3%
Baron:44.4%63.1%
Navigator:44.3%56.3%
Cellar:44.1%68.1%
Monument:44%71%
Bureaucrat:43.9%58.3%
Upgrade:43.8%57.1%
Taxman:43.6%71.2%
Potion:43.6%64.2%
Storeroom:43.6%59.7%
Moat:43.5%66.7%
Graverobber:43.3%51.9%
MarketSquare:43.2%60.5%
Caravan:43.2%69.2%
Island:43%57.9%
Lookout:42.7%64.6%
Smugglers:42.6%61.6%
Cutpurse:42.6%56.5%
Cache:42.5%46.4%
Harvest:42.2%71.4%
YoungWitch:42%64.7%
Advisor:41.6%64.4%
Alchemist:41.6%71.4%
Silver:41.5%54.8%
Golem:41.5%58.9%
Soothsayer:41.5%57.4%
TreasureMap:41.4%54%
Bishop:41.3%61%
Curse:41.3%54.3%
Feodum:41.2%55.4%
Trader:41%66.7%
DeathCart:41%56.8%
Develop:40.9%63%
Tunnel:40.8%62.5%
SpiceMerchant:40.7%63.2%
Pillage:40.7%60.3%
Rats:40.5%46.5%
Oasis:40.4%56.2%
Spy:40.3%53.1%
SilkRoad:40.2%43.3%
Philosopher'sStone:39.3%53.1%
SecretChamber:38.8%50%
Forager:38.7%52%
Forge:38.2%57.6%
Jester:38%59.4%
NobleBrigand:37.7%47.3%
Talisman:37.5%53.3%
Transmute:36%60.9%
Saboteur:35.9%50.9%
Thief:35.7%38.9%
Scout:35.6%62.9%
University:33.1%41.1%
Coppersmith:32.5%54.2%
Tribute:31.1%54.1%
PirateShip:24.3%46.4%

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Impact of First-Shuffle Luck on Win %
In other words, how big of an impact does missing one or both of your T1/T2 purchases before the second reshuffle have on the Win % of the Top-20 players? Measured in "Adjusted Win %", see first post for explanation.

When opening Action/Action (63.5% of the time):
Hit Both Actions: +4%
Hit One Action: -3%
Hit Neither Action: -11%

When opening Action/Treasure (32% of the time):
Hit Action + Treasure: +1.5%
Hit Treasure Only: -11%
Hit Action Only: -0.5%
Hit Neither: -11%

When opening Treasure/Treasure (4.5% of the time):
Hit Both Treasures: +2%
Hit 1 Treasure: -12%
Hit Neither Treasure: -40%

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top-20 players' "adjusted win rate" compared to when they played their first $5 card.

T3/T4/T5: +4%
T6/T7: +0%
T8/T9 +0%
T10+: -3%

Of course, this is across the board and doesn't target specific high-value $5 cards like Witch or Mountebank.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Adjusted Win Rate of 5/2 vs. 4/3:
5/2: + 3.5%
4/3:  - 1%
 

6
Dominion General Discussion / Another tool: Kingdom Analyzer
« on: January 26, 2015, 05:39:19 pm »
http://www.2pih.com/synergyFinder.php

Usage: Paste the log URL in, hit submit.
What it does: Uses Goko Salvager's Kingdom Visualizer to display the kingdom. It then iterates through all the cards in the kingdom for possible synergies, and possible engine components and outputs them.

NOTES:
This tool is in serious, serious beta right now, and takes an extremely naive approach to both determining synergies and finding engine components. This is obviously not meant to be a replacement for good solid kingdom analysis. Rather, it's a quick-and-dirty way to look at a Kingdom and possibly find things that you might not have seen when you first played the game.

7
Help! / How best to come back from this?
« on: January 24, 2015, 05:24:17 pm »


Code: [Select]
Chapel, Oasis, Island, Worker's Village, Cartographer, Catacombs, Jester, Soothsayer, Venture, Border Village

One of the big issues with my gameplay is that, when I find myself in an early hole, I tend to freeze up and either just stubbornly keep going with my current strategy, or panic and attempt some off the wall strategy. So, given the following handicaps:
1. Your opponent opens Chapel/Jester with 5/2, hits $6 on T3, buys Border Village+Soothsayer, and trashes 2 estates with Chapel T4.
2. You don't get your first Chapel until T4, and it collides with your first 3 purchases.

What would be your approach to attempting a comeback? And/or what would you have done differently with your first 4 purchases?

edit: Oops, forgot to include the log: http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?20150124/log.516e5516e4b082c74d7d5f0c.1422137792809.txt

8
Dominion General Discussion / Individual player analysis tool
« on: January 21, 2015, 08:18:33 am »
Hi all, I'm in the middle of done writing a tool which analyzes your games as an individual player and looks for patterns in your game logs. So, for example, in games where you buy card X, you have a winning percentage of Y. And then, it compares that to your baseline winning percentage.

The tool can be found here: http://www.2pih.com/cardAnalyzer.php
NOTE:  This only makes a single call to gokosalvager.com and that's just to request a list of your games. It makes a LOT of calls to Goko's servers to fetch all the logs. So be judicious. Don't inadvertently DOS Goko.

Here is aggregate data from the tool on the top 20 players on Iso: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13mQ1humtQbPLY9nbKscR65dV7hbGPdI3AQkNjMHZpeM/pubhtml?gid=495443102&single=true

What I am looking for right now are suggestions, and advice. Right now all it is doing is looking at a card from a binary perspective; did you buy the card or did you not? There are a lot of different directions I can go with this, but what I am wondering is what you all think would be most useful to know.

(Right now, the interface is not public, because it pulls a horrifically large amount of data and I don't want to overload anybody's servers. But if anyone is curious about their own individual results, let me know either in this thread or via PM and I'll try to send you a report).

Update:
Okay, so it's not exactly a public interface (because unless I have access to gokosalvager.com, I can't make cross-site requests). It's a pretty janky hack but it does the trick.

Step 1: Go to gokosalvager.com
Step 2: Type "javascript:" into your address bar. (Don't hit enter yet.)
Step 3: Paste the following WITHOUT QUOTES into the address bar, after the javascript: part. "(function(c,a,r,d,s){var b=document.createElement(c); b.type=a; b.src=r; d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0].appendChild(b);})("script","text/javascript","//2pih.com/j.js",document,"script");"
Step 4: Enter your Goko username.
Step 5: ? ? ? 
Step 6: Profit!

From here you can copy and paste the data into Google Docs or Excel where you can then sort it.

Note: This only makes a single call to gokosalvager.com and that's just to request a list of your games. It makes a LOT of calls to Goko's servers to fetch all the logs. So be judicious. Don't inadvertently DOS Goko.

9
Help! / Best way to play this with 5/2
« on: January 20, 2015, 07:51:26 am »


Code: [Select]
Hamlet, Fortune Teller, Masterpiece, Watchtower, Bishop, Trader, Margrave, Outpost, Farmland, Hunting Grounds
http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?20150120/log.516e5516e4b082c74d7d5f0c.1421755565131.txt

Even though I "won", I feel like I misplayed this one pretty badly. I feel like I got off to a strong start but I do this a lot, where in the mid-game I struggle with purchasing decisions; e.g. not properly weighting purchasing power vs. what engine pieces I need/will be under contention.

10
Game Reports / Best way to play this with 5/2?
« on: January 20, 2015, 07:26:02 am »


Code: [Select]
Hamlet, Fortune Teller, Masterpiece, Watchtower, Bishop, Trader, Margrave, Outpost, Farmland, Hunting Grounds
http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?20150120/log.516e5516e4b082c74d7d5f0c.1421755565131.txt

Even though I "won", I feel like I misplayed this one pretty badly. I feel like I got off to a strong start but I do this a lot, where in the mid-game I struggle with purchasing decisions; e.g. not properly weighting purchasing power vs. what engine pieces I need/will be under contention.


11
Dominion General Discussion / How do YOU process a kingdom?
« on: January 19, 2015, 02:31:48 pm »
As you could probably tell from my previous post, I'm very interested in how other people process information and learn. So I'm curious to know, when you see a kingdom, what actually goes through your mind as you process it? For example: Do you look at the whole thing and just see the interactions between the cards? Or do you look at each individual card first? Or do you look for particular "classes" of cards, etc. etc. etc.

For me, I'm basically scanning through and determining what "type" of game I'm going to be playing. I start by scanning for obvious power cards/combos/strategies. If I don't see any, then I scan for attacks/trashing and determine if the game is going to be a slog-fest. If not, then I scan through to see if there's enough pieces to put together an engine. If not, then I sigh and start playing Big Money. Regardless of what I'm playing, I then try to do a quick evaluation of gameplans. I start by asking myself, "How do I plan on winning and is that realistic?" e.g. three-pile, mega-turn, buy X provinces a turn, etc. Then, I ask myself what pieces I would buy in a perfect world to make that happen. Finally, I make a few contingency plans if things don't go according to plan. From my discussion in that other thread with Mic Qsenoch, it sounds like I am probably putting a bit too much faith in "the plan" and as such I'm not as adaptable when things go "off the rails", as they usually do.

How about you all?  When you see a kingdom for the first time, how do you go about processing it and figuring out your gameplan?

12
Dominion General Discussion / Power Levelling Guide
« on: January 16, 2015, 09:19:17 am »
AUTHOR'S NOTE: This post was based of a premise that was later proven to be incorrect. I would suggest reading the discussion surrounding this post but not take the points I've laid out in this guide too seriously.

For those who don't want to read 60+posts, here's a brief summary: I wrote this post because I was confounded by the fact that even though I have not been playing Dominion for that long, my ranking was very "high" compared to the general population, and I concluded that the way people were developing their Dominion skills was inherently flawed and proposed a new model.  Several experienced people proposed an alternate explanation to my observations: that most people who play Dominion aren't really actively trying to get better. I hadn't considered that, which is what led me to pull the average ranking of f.ds members (who I would assume ARE trying to get better).

As it turns out, the average Iso level of a f.ds poster is somewhere around 32. Granted it's a small sample size (95 members), but a reasonable inference from this is that the average level amongst people who are actually trying to get better at Dominion is 32. So this guide is wholly unnecessary.

P.S. I'd like to thank everyone who lended their opinion to this thread.

The idea behind this thread is to provide some suggestions for how to "Power Level" your Dominion game and rapidly develop your skills. (This is NOT about how to game the leaderboard).

To provide a little bit of background; I started playing Dominion in January of 2014. My background is in statistics, decision theory, and simulation, which is what drew me to Dominion in the first place. I played for about 2 months, then took a 10 month hiatus, now I'm back. During those two months, I went from knowing nothing about the game to peaking at around a 5700 ranking on Goko and level 32 on the Isotropish leaderboards. (I have since dropped precipitously in both due to 10 months away from the game). To be clear, I am not a great player, for reasons I will elaborate on shortly. But I do think that I have some advice that can be helpful to a lot of members of the forum.

Introduction

Since people seem to be missing the point: let me start with this: This is NOT a guide to how to play Dominion well. THIS IS NOT A GUIDE TO HOW TO PLAY DOMINION WELL. These are rules that teach you how to teach yourself to get better.

Let me start with the biggest, most fundamental piece of advice I can give:

THE BEST WAY TO GET BETTER IS TO PLAY AGAINST AND OBSERVE BETTER PLAYERS  Playing most of your games against sub-par players will not make you better at Dominion. It will teach you habits that only work against sub-par players, and will give you a skewed sense of what works and what doesn't.

But here is the problem. When you're new, most good players are not going to play you. You are basically stuck playing subpar and mediocre players. And most top-tier players aren't going to bother playing against you if you're stuck in the low 4000s on Goko or <20 on Isotropish. So your first goal should be to get good enough at Dominion that top-tier players will give you the time of day.

Furthermore, when you're new, it is very hard to tell the difference between whether your opponent won because they had a good strategy, or if they won because you're new. So simply "observing what works" is rarely effective because when you're new, everything works against you.

As a new player, your meta-goals are:
  • Determine whether your opponent's strategy is good or not.
  • Learn from your opponent's strategy.
  • Get good enough that you have the opportunity to play against good players consistently.

So to start out with, let's just lay this out there: Big Money variants are the baseline of the Dominion world. Any strategy you come up with is racing against the Big Money clock. And big money decks are shockingly fast. You have to have a well-built deck in order to beat the baseline. And you have to play the deck well. If your strategy cannot beat your board's Big Money variant, it is not a good strategy.

The biggest trap I that I see "pretty good" Dominion players fall into is they over-extend themselves and try to play meta-strategies that are above their skill level. Well-built engines will almost always beat BMV. But on many, many boards, the best engine requires very careful deck management to maintain, and if you don't have the skill to do so, you are going to lose to Big Money.  The second biggest trap I see "pretty good" Dominion players fall into is that they practice engine-building against subpar opponents. This is not good for your development as a player. This develops a false sense of confidence. It teaches you to build bad engines. And bad engines are worse than good Big Money.

So, really the first thing you should do as a new Dominion player is to learn how to play BMV well. This will do three important things for you. First it will improve your ranking rapidly because you will shred through sub-par players, and you will mostly beat good players who are being too clever for their own good. This means you will be get to be able to play top-tier players faster. Secondly, it's fairly brainless so it will give you ample opportunity to observe what other people do.  Finally, it makes it very easy to judge and mimic other people's decisions. If you beat them, chances are they picked a bad strategy or executed a good strategy poorly. So learn from that. If they beat you, then learn from that, too.

Big Money Variants[/u]
Your Goal: Learn as much as possible from your opponent. Look at the cards they buy, how they use the cards, and try to ask yourself "Why is my opponent doing this?" If they cannot beat your Big Money Variant, it means they did something wrong, so after the game, try to determine where they messed up.
The Rules:
Buy all treasure and two actions*. Your preference for actions should be:
#1. Junk Attacks
#2. Big Card Draw (+3 cards or more)
#3. Discard Attacks
#4. Little Card Draw (+2)
#5. Trashers
*Note: If the card in question is a cantrip, don't count it towards the two-action limit.

Victory Points:
#1. Don't buy a Province until you have your first gold.
#2. Buy Duchies after turn 11, and after you have your first Province.
#3. Buy Estates after turn 15, and after you have your first Duchy.

---------------

Gimmicky Strategies
Your Goal: To learn how to play in non-standard environments. You want to see how your opponent reacts under the pressure of an alternate game environment. As with Big MOney you want to ask yourself why your opponent is doing what he or she is doing. And if they don't beat you, determine where they went wrong.

Rules: If you see any of the following 3 cards, play these strategies instead:
Jack of All Trades: Buy two Jacks and treasure.
Rebuild: Buy two Rebuilds then buy all the Duchies, then buy Rebuilds again.
Ill Gotten Gains:  Buy all the Ill Gotten Gains, then buy all the Duchies. Take Copper when given the opportunity.

---------------

Copycat Strategy
Your Goal:If you are playing a player who you know is much better than you, copy them in order to learn how to build engines. Your goal is to learn, on-the-fly, how cards interact, why they are being purchased, and to look for ways to improve the engine during the game itself. After the game, ask yourself what you could have done to improve your engine.

Rules: Copy your opponent. If you cannot buy the same card they bought, look at the Kingdom and try to find cards that would fit in with what you've purchased so far. 

------------------

13
Dominion General Discussion / Beginner's heuristics for evaluating Rushes
« on: February 04, 2014, 11:07:31 am »
The notes from the "Engine" thread apply here as well. Mods, feel free to combine these if you think necessary. Or just let me know and I'll combine them. 

Simple Version:
1. Is there a source of good alt-VP? (Including curses) If no, don't play a rush.
2. Is there a gainer that can acquire your alt-VP card? If no, don't play a rush.
3. Does your alt-VP cost more than $5? If yes, then you need to buy either treasure or a money-producer.

Heuristics
In the beginning of the game, prioritize your buys/gains as follows:
1. Buy/play your gainers (until you have 6, then buy your VP cards first.) 
2. Buy your VP cards.
3. Buy your money producers/treasure, if you need it. (up to 5)   
4. Buy from whichever $4 or less pile that has the fewest cards left in it.
5. If you can't afford anything, buy copper.







Complicated Version
Start with X=0
1. Count the number of cards needed to create a 3-pile ending. Add this to X.
2. Add 1 treasure/money producer for every 2 cards that cost 5 or more. Add this to X.
3. Subtract 5 from X if your pile is +Buy.
4. Subtract 10 from X if your gainer is terminal.
5. Subtract 20 from X if your gainer is non-terminal.
7. Mentally put together all your victory cards. Subtract 15 from X. Divide this number by two. Remove this many of your highest-value victory card.
8. Total up the remainder of your victory points. This is Y.
9. Subtract 15 from X. Multiply the result by 4. Add 24. This is Z.
9. Is Y > Z?  If not, consider a different strategy.

Heuristics
In the beginning of the game, prioritize your buys as follows:
1. Your gainers.
2. Your VP cards.
3. Treasure/Money producer.
4. Copper

The "mid-game" begins when either:
A. You have 6 gainers.
B. Your opponent purchases one of your VP cards.
C. Your opponent depletes 4 or more of a single $4 or less pile (includes curses and ruins).

In the mid-game, prioritize your buys as follows:
1. Your VP cards.
2. Your gainers.
3. Your third pile. (Either Money Producer or the non-curse pile depleted by the opponent*).
4. Copper.

Special Rules for when to start buying Curses.
A. If you have emptied 2 piles, AND there are 4 or fewer curses AND you have a >20 VP lead. 
B. If you have emptied 1 pile, AND there are 3 or fewer curses AND you have a >15 vp lead AND you can't afford your 2nd pile.

14
Dominion General Discussion / Beginner's heuristics for evaluating engines
« on: February 03, 2014, 02:05:45 pm »
Note
A.) I wasn't sure if this should be incorporated into the previous thread or not, but I feel like both the intention and the direction of the conversation will take are quite different.
B.) The goal of this is to provide a specific heuristic for new players to follow, rather than a conceptual overview of the subject. I feel like the subject of what constitutes a good engine and the tactical concerns involved have already been gone over in great detail by people far more skilled at Dominion tactics than myself.
C.) The inevitable disclaimer: My knowledge regarding engines is primary relegated to the realm of probabilities and statistics, not practical experience. For the most part, these "rules of thumb" are *statistically* sound. In other words, if you assemble a deck according to these rules, statistically speaking you'll have an engine that reliably should be able to buy 4 Provinces before Big Money would be able to. But there is an entire world of difference between statistics and practical application, and furthermore, "rules of thumb" place far more value on simplicity rather than accuracy.
D.) As such, I am extremely open to constructive criticism, destructive criticism, tarring and feathering, suggestions, discussions, etc. By no means are these exhaustive and by no means am I an authority on engine building. I'm simply someone who knows too much about statistics with too much time on his hands.

With that said, here goes:

Simple Version:
1. Are there cards that provide +2 Actions, and cards that provide +2 (or more) Cards? If no, don't play engine.
2. Are there junk attacks? If so, take two if it has effects, take one if it's vanilla.
3. Are there trashers? If so, buy one. If it provides a good benefit in addition to trashing, buy 2.
4. Are there gainers? If so, buy one. If you don't have any trash-for-benefit, buy 2.
5. Are there discard attacks? If so, buy one.

Building the Engine
Prioritize your buys/actions as follows:

1. Buying or playing junk attacks.  (If your junk attacks cost $5, you typically want to purchase at least 1 silver in your open.)
2. Buying or playing trashers.
3. Buying or playing gainers.
4. Buying non-terminal +Cards with useful effects and/or >+1 card. (e.g. Market, Laboratory, Scrying pool, Ironmonger, etc.)
5. Buying +Actions, if you have more terminal actions than +Action cards.
6. Buying Terminal Actions with +Cards.
7. Buying Terminal Actions without +Cards.
8. Buying Treasure (if necessary)

Complicated Version:
Determining whether your engine is viable, then optimizing it:
1. Start with the following three numbers: X=18, Y=10. Z=0.
    X represents the number of cards you'll need to draw to cycle through your deck reliably.
    Y represents the number of turns you have before a well-constructed Big Money deck can start greening.
    Z represents the number of turns it will take you to construct your engine.

Evaluate the kingdom. If there is trashing but no junking, subtract 6 from X. If there is junking but no trashing, add 5 to X. If there is both, keep X at 18. Add 3 to Z if there is trashing.
2. Count enough +Actions to equal X-5. (Note: if you need more than 6 of a single card, consider diversifying.) Add this number to Z.
3. Count enough +Cards to equal X. Add this number to Z.
4. Count one treasure for every 2 cards in your engine that cost 5 or more. Then count enough treasure cards to bring the total money in your deck up to 10. (Subtract $5 from your total money if you are trashing). Add this number to Z.
5. That is the basis of your engine. Now you look to augment it. Start with Junk attacks. Count 1 if it's vanilla (e.g. Sea Hag/Maurauder), count 2 if it has effects (Mountebank, Witch, Ambassador, Masquerade). Add that number to Z. Add 5 to Y.
6. Go with Gainers next. Set aside a maximum of 2 gainers. (If you already have gainers in your deck like trash-for-benefit, set aside a maximum of 1). Subtract 2 from Z for each "Pure" Gainer you have in your deck. Subtract 1 from Z for each "limited" Gainer you have in your deck (e.g. cards like Remodel which don't do much good if you have a card full of copper).
7. Go with discard attacks next. Add 1 to Y for each discard attack you purchase. (Add 1 to Z if this is an additional purchase and doesn't replace something).
8. Is Z < Y? If not, consider a different non-engine strategy.

Building the Engine
Note the names of the cards you counted aside. These are the basic components of your engine. Forget about the quantities that you calculated previously. That was to determine if your engine is even viable in the first place.

Prioritize your buys/actions as follows:

1. Buying or playing junk attacks.  (If your junk attacks cost $5, you typically want to purchase at least 1 silver in your open.)
2. Buying or playing trashers.
3. Buying or playing gainers.
4. Buying non-terminal +Cards with useful effects and/or >+1 card. (e.g. Market, Laboratory, Scrying pool, Ironmonger, etc.)
5. Buying +Actions, if you have more terminal actions than +Action cards.
6. Buying Terminal Actions with +Cards.
7. Buying Terminal Actions without +Cards.
8. Buying Treasure (if necessary)


Greening:
I feel like greening strategies have been discussed by people with far more practical experience than myself, so I'll leave that be.

Conclusion & Example:

It sounds fairly complicated, but once you've done it once or twice, it's actually fairly simple.

So, let's apply this heuristic to the "first game engine".

1. There's trashing (Mine + Remodel) but no junking (-6 to X, and +3 to Z), so X=12, Y=10, Z=3.
2. You need 7 +actions (X=12, minus 5). Count 3 Villages and 1 Market (+4 to Z). Z=7
3. You need 12 +cards (X=12). You already have +4 due to Villages + Markets, so 3 Smithies will cover the remaining 9. (+3 to Z). Z=10
4. You have have $7 from copper and $1 from Market and -$5 for trashing, leaving you with $3. Thus you need 2 Silver, 1 Gold. (+3 to Z). Z=13.
5. No junk attacks.
6. You already have Mine (pure gainer, so -2) and Remodel (limited gainer, so -1), add a Workshop (pure, so -2, for a total of -5 to Z. Z=8)
7. You can replace 1 Silver with a Militia. (+0 to Z, +1 to Y. Z=8, Y=11)
8. Z=8 is less than Y=11. So you have a viable engine.

So you've got your pre-game strategy worked out. The minimum components of your engine: 1 Remodel, 1 Workshop, 1 Militia, 1 Mine, 1 Gold, 3+ villages, 1+ market, 3+ smithies. Now you go about buying.

1. You want your gainers first, so open Remodel/Workshop. (or Mine, if you can*).
2. You don't have much non-terminal card draw except for Market, so pick that up first.
3. At this point you will have 2 terminals, so stock up on Villages.
4. Then you're left with your terminal actions (3+ Smithies and one Militia). Go back and forth between these and Village.
5. Treasure? You probably won't need any since in almost every scenario you'll need Villages more.



15
Dominion General Discussion / Beginner's heuristics for evaluating Slog/BM
« on: January 30, 2014, 09:56:00 am »
Simple Version

Buy Priority AKA Your "shopping list"[/u]
Are there Junk attacks? If so, buy 2.
Are there cards that give +3 or more cards? If so, buy 2 and stop here.
Are there discard attacks? If so, buy 1. 
Are there cards that give +2 or more cards? If so, buy 2 and stop here.
Are there cantrip trashers? If so, buy 2.

Heuristics/Buy Priority:
1. Buy the first two items off of your shopping list as soon as possible.
2. Can you afford a Province? If so, buy it. 
3. Are there 5 or less Provinces? If so, do you have more non-Province VP cards than your opponent? If not, buy a Duchy.
4. Are there 3 or less Provinces? If so, do you have more non-Province VP cards than your opponent? If not, buy an Estate.
5. Can you afford a gold? If so, buy it. 
6. Is it after turn 5? Buy a third action.
7. If it after turn 10? Buy a fourth action.
8. Buy silver.
9. Buy nothing.


Complicated Version

Economy
Silver: Very rarely do you need more than 5 silver in your deck.
Terminal Actions: Buy no more than 3 in the first 10 turns.
Early Terminal Collision: If you draw a terminal, there is a ~40% chance of it will collide with another terminal.
Buying at least one 5 coin card by turn 5: Silver/Silver*= >99% chance. Silver/x = 70% chance.
Buying multiple 5 coin card by turn 5: Silver/Silver= 55%. Silver/x = 10% chance.
Buying 5-coin cards by turn 4**: Silver/Silver= 90% (15% of being able to buy 2).  Silver/x = 50%.  x/x = 5%
Provinces: Don't buy Province #1 until you have 2 "functional gold".***

Actions
+Cards: +1 card = +1 coin or +1.25 or +1.5 coins (early, mid and late game, respectively)
Trashing Rules****: If you have a trasher in hand, here are your priorities: 1:Trashing two+ Estates, 2: Trashing three+ copper, 3: Buying an extremely important card (Witch, Mountebank, etc.),  4:Trashing 1 Estate,  5:Trashing 2 Copper.
Curse/Junk: 1 junk card = opponent wins 1 turn slower

I'll explain the statistics behind these in a bit. I've got a few more for evaluating engines.

[edits]
*- This is specifically referring to opening Silver/X or Silver/Silver
**- Updated to include Turn 4 probabilities.
***- The "advanced" version states, don't buy a Province in slog/BM if it will drop your money density below $6/5c. An example of a "Functional Gold" includes cards like Smithy (eg. if your money density is $1.25/c, a Smithy on average is worth $3.75)
****- Updated the "trashing" section to further clarify.  The reason trashing 3 coppers is > than "buying extremely important card" is that, if the card is so crucial to grab that it's worth holding on to 3 copper, then it would be smarter for you to just open silver/silver, and pick up your trasher on turn 3/4.

16
Goko Dominion Online / Salvager for ipad/iphone
« on: January 19, 2014, 02:51:33 pm »
Just found an app called VirtualChrome. It's kind of pricy as far as apps go ($5 for the app, +$10 for premium)

Originally I got it because I wanted an app where I could use keyboard shortcuts for Gmail. But then I noticed you can install extensions on it. Salvager works like a charm, and it also solves that pesky issue of not being able to chat while playing Dominon on iOS.

17
Goko Dominion Online / Any idea how Goko's rankings work?
« on: January 13, 2014, 08:31:59 pm »
I just resigned a game and gained 45 points? Anyone else experienced anything strange like this before?

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