I've finally attained a 1:1 post-to-respect ratio!
Congratulations, have an upvote as a prize! DOH!
No, really you get Ozles internet admiration prize!
Don't get too excited though, the last person to get it was Colonel Gaddafi for his taking up of the FindMyFriends app....
I am upset that you did not actually upvote.
I've finally attained a 1:1 post-to-respect ratio!
The answer is 6
I'm sorry Ozle, we have a new Town Jester, but if you'd like to re-apply submit your credentials and we'll get back to you soon.
Huh, who is that new jester? I need to know so i can excessively complain how the old implementation was better and for free.
I'm starting this thread as a place to talk about the question in probability that arose during the recently-finished game of Harry Potter Mafia: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=14209.0
The setup is the following. 7 letters are selected at random. For each letter individually, there is a 1/2 chance of selecting a "T", 1/10 of selecting a "P", 1/10 of selecting a "K" and 3/10 of choosing some other letter.
At some point in the game it became known that:
1) Exactly 3 Ts had been chosen.
2) At least 2 Ps had been chosen.
3) At least 1 K had been chose.
The question: given this information, what is the probability that in fact 3 Ps had been chosen? (ie. the letters were some arrangement of TTTPPPK?)
The "obvious" answer: 20%, since the chance of getting a P out of a single letter which is known not to be a T is 1/5.
I argue that this is wrong.
The argument is based on the following fact.
I flip two (fair) coins and tell you that at least one of them came up heads. Then the probability of both being heads, given that information is 1/3.
This is because there are 4 equally likely possibilities: HH, HT, TH and TT. Of these, exactly 3 contain one or more heads, and exactly 1 contains 2 heads, the P(2 heads | 1 or more heads)=1/3.
By a similar argument (which I will present in the next post), I argue that the answer to the larger question is 2/23, as unintuitive as this seems.
Let's discuss.
Who are the Beatles?It turns out that Paul McCartney had a band before Wings.
If Random dies, what will I talk about? Where will I share my funny pictures? Where will we talk about normal stuff?
Why not have a funny pictures thread? That way people who dont normally see the pictures might then see and maybe even contribute
And im not saying get rid of completely, but just leave it for the completely random non discussion stuff
Wait. We're arguing with Ozle? Guys, clearly this must be trolling
Worse, I am agreeing with Ozle.
If Random dies, what will I talk about? Where will I share my funny pictures? Where will we talk about normal stuff?
Why not have a funny pictures thread? That way people who dont normally see the pictures might then see and maybe even contribute
And im not saying get rid of completely, but just leave it for the completely random non discussion stuff
Wait. We're arguing with Ozle? Guys, clearly this must be trolling
Worse, I am agreeing with Ozle.
If Random dies, what will I talk about? Where will I share my funny pictures? Where will we talk about normal stuff?
I think mine was when I stepped into a (serious) thread, didn't read it, made a completely serious reply, and managed to get message of the week from it.
Well, it's that or a post I made from an alt account. Probably the latter actually.
Edit: It's the latter. Sigh.
Too slow! No +1 for you, the +1 is MINE!I wonder if the "amended" post counts that are today's April Fools joke are generated randomly, or from an algorithm based on correct post count.
+1 available for first documented correct answer.
The change is simply that posts in the Forum Games subforum are counted.
Anyone who makes a joke about a dominion card I may have accidentally referenced or misspelled will NOT receive any +1s.
Your post is misleading because you acknowledge Ozle's algorithm. One should never acknowledge Ozle's algorithms.
I'm curious how many forum games posts I have. I haven't played Mafia in ages. Current post count is 9737...
I wonder if the "amended" post counts that are today's April Fools joke are generated randomly, or from an algorithm based on correct post count.
+1 available for first documented correct answer.
