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Messages - MiX

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1
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: Today at 02:31:54 pm »
So, your case is that MiX didn't pay attention to my post about deciding who to target?

I'm confused by his comment that scum would know 4 people who couldn't be in the neighborhood. What 4?

I first counted traitor, and then I realized I could count myself instead! You know given I claimed to not be neighbor at the time.

Was it MiX who made the "mafia knows traitor " mistake earlier?

That was joth.

2
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: Today at 02:19:11 pm »
Yes, this is true, this is obviously true, and if you ever try to say that scum!me would say what I said above hoping people would forget Glooble's the one that questioned it then you have the polar opposite of what I do as scum. Or anyone, really, who would do this on purpose?

So what WOULD scum!you post in response to Glooble catching your mistake? I think what you posted is a decent attempt at covering.

Scum!me would acknowledge that it's a good reason to scumread me because mistakes = scummy. Town!me knows better.

I did read it, and I thought not mentioning what the second person (ash) thought of joth meant it was joth.

What?

EFHW suggested Glooble and joth and the second person didn't want Glooble and suggested MiX. But what about joth? EFHW didn't talk about him again or what the hood thought of him. Thus I concluded the second person was joth. Get it now?

I read that sentence like four times and I have no idea what it means.

It means he sincerely thought that the neighborhood was sitting around talking about which one of themselves to target with their consensus-based vigs. Which is patently ridiculous.

There's 3 people in it, they can definitely overpower one of the neighbors.

3
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 1)
« on: Today at 02:11:15 pm »
This defensiveness is, however.

No.

For me this said "it's not scummy because third-pary/PRs want to defend themselves too", otherwise you would've written much more.

Haha nice try, but as you can see above you came up with that after Glooble pointed out your mistake, so my narrative works fine.

In other news I can read and arrive at the same conclusion from reading the same things, no need to point this out. But you have a narrative to push, so fine. Yes, this is true, this is obviously true, and if you ever try to say that scum!me would say what I said above hoping people would forget Glooble's the one that questioned it then you have the polar opposite of what I do as scum. Or anyone, really, who would do this on purpose?

The degree to which that scum slip is not a scum slip is quite enormous.

And why is that? Tell me how town makes that mistake.

They don't read EFHW's post properly.

I did read it, and I thought not mentioning what the second person (ash) thought of joth meant it was joth.

4
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: Today at 02:00:29 pm »
You misread. The second paragraph was all hypothetical and counter-factual.

The benefit for town is that given the scummy vibes I got, I think the neighborhood could be a good place to look for scum.

The sooner you out them, the faster we can start considering them.

Joth's one of them, and I suspect the other's pubby? Maaaaaybe ss/pps. So if I can figure this out surely scum can, I don't see why you would scumread them and not out them.

Joth wanted to vig... himself?

I suppose EFHW wouldn't suggest someone in it, but the way she said the second person didn't want Glooble and said nothing about joth seems like it would be joth. Just wild guessing, which is something scum can do better knowing 4 people that cannot be in the neighborhood. Regardless, scumreading neighbors is pointless if they aren't revealed.

This is the post you're talking about. So your defense is that you honestly thought the three people in the neighborhood were discussing possible targets (for a kill that requires majority consensus) and included one of their own in that discussion? That's pretty weak.

It doesn't fit your narrative, that's for sure. Unless I didn't notice and then noticed it immediatly and decided to rectify it? Sounds like a weak case.

5
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: Today at 01:48:54 pm »
ok, but neighbor scum have had the opportunity to tell non-neighbor scum who their neighbors are, right? My last post sorta depends on that.

Yes, in night 1, why is this important?

You ever think about just reading all my posts?

To be fair, I did read your last post. Also the post you just quoted is a big mess with As and Bs and non-yes-or-no questions followed with "if X were true/false", so you can't expect me to understand everything you're saying in it. And how does scum knowing neighbors N1 impact this? They can solidify their stance on neighbor lynching after they were revealed.

Hopefully my post above answers your question. It's very relevant because it confirms to me that you scumslipped.

Oh, so it's relevent not for the previous post, but for the future post, I see.

So I read the post, and your case. I'm assuming the "scumslip" is I didn't see EFHW mention that she wanted joth to be vigged? I'm 100% positive a later post of mine acknowledges that I saw that when naming the neighbor.

6
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: Today at 01:40:43 pm »
ok, but neighbor scum have had the opportunity to tell non-neighbor scum who their neighbors are, right? My last post sorta depends on that.

Yes, in night 1, why is this important?

You ever think about just reading all my posts?

To be fair, I did read your last post. Also the post you just quoted is a big mess with As and Bs and non-yes-or-no questions followed with "if X were true/false", so you can't expect me to understand everything you're saying in it. And how does scum knowing neighbors N1 impact this? They can solidify their stance on neighbor lynching after they were revealed.

7
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: Today at 12:07:18 pm »
ok, but neighbor scum have had the opportunity to tell non-neighbor scum who their neighbors are, right? My last post sorta depends on that.

Yes, in night 1, why is this important?

8
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: Today at 11:31:14 am »

Are you a VT?

What possible reason could you have for asking that?

more importantly, how would answering that possibly be a good idea?

The only reason I unvoted ss D1 was because they essencially said they were a third-party. Given what I know of ss that made perfect sense so I backed off. The fact that they aren't means they're either scum or town that has already answered this question, so I want to know which ss we're dealing with here.

Unless someone doesn't know what ss is, in which case there might be scum that don't either, so the question's anti-town.

I don't think the neighbors a good pick (although the fact they are neighbors is helpful in a reread).

Just as a note when you're rereading I don't believe the neighbors knew each other's identities until night 1.

faust is this correct?

That's a good piece of correct information right there.

9
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: Today at 10:50:14 am »
I want to know where the term "popsquiz" comes from. Anyway:

Town:
ss, ash, joth, Swan

Towny:
pps, EFHW

Null:
gkrieg, pubby

Scummy:
mcmc, e?

Scum:
Glooble, e?


Scum tend to fall in the "towny" part, and that's also where I have Glooble, but I'm convinced it's because they're scum. Less so for pps and not at all for EFHW because she's a recent addition to it.

If I were third party, I'd probably claim, I think. In any case, I'm not; I'm town.

Are you a VT?

10
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: Today at 10:09:10 am »
Ash, can you say why Glooble got an upgrade?

I’m almost positive ash is town here. Giving reads and thoughtful reactions to plans while not getting too overly emotional about votes on him is not his scum persona at least.

What have you done this game? I forgot.

11
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: Today at 09:38:22 am »
Also not sure where you're getting lack of confidence- he seems pretty damn confident that I'm scum based on tissue paper evidence.

I think it just seems to me like he's deferring to SS on everything SS-related.

Maybe that's what I'm sensing.

I'm against claiming *and* against lynching in hood. So what do you mean by this?

And furthermore, “claim pushing is scummy” isn’t an argument I’d expect from town!ash who is usually such a grounded realist when I suggest that scum is doing a crazy gambit. So that post really makes me want to vote: ash.

I still think that if there turns out to be scum in the neighborhood I want to lynch MiX next.

Isn't it easier to lynch non-town outside the hood regardless? There's at least 3 scum out of 9 here, sounds better than hood. And scum would just start "scumreading" someone in it? You know, like what you're doing? But I like your case.

12
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: Today at 06:18:14 am »
The reason I'm not laying out in detail how creating buckets benefits town is that I would have to go in detail and that might help scum make better decisions during the massclaim.

The benefits should really be obvious. You guys have all played mafia before. We get claims, we analyze them, we find things that are suspicious. Most of the time scum doesn't play perfectly and claims themselves into a bad scenario. Most likely we end up with a situation where we have several subsets of players and can say with fairly high confidence that one scum is in each. We find them, we get ICs. There's a reason why sensor is never used; creating these kinds of sets is too strong for PR.

There's 5 people fakeclaiming. We don't know how many PRs there are, but scum does. Groups will most likely have more than 1 scum in them. We can't fully determine how much scum are in each group unless they seriously screw it up. This basically gives scum a bunch of information while giving town very little to work with. I can't see how this seperation of players helps lynching scum.

PPE: Oh you want to lynch in hood? What's your top scumread there?

13
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: Today at 05:32:41 am »
To be fair, survivor will pretty much always side with mafia if we mislynch today

No. That depends on the survivor. Some survivors don't just have winning as a goal, but would rather win with town.

If they want to win, they'll...want to win. It's much safer. I'm not even going to attempt to see a scenario where someone doesn't take the winning move.

Two people in the neighborhood said they wanted to lynch outside of the neighborhood and that swayed your opinion?

No, I always had this opinion.

14
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: Today at 05:24:19 am »
In other news, a player who helps mafia is bad for town.

To be fair, survivor will pretty much always side with mafia if we mislynch today (and town gets NKd). It's not their fault either, we just enter a 5-5 if that happens. Then there's SK, which I suppose wouldn't do it but also cuts town's winrate by a lot, and traitor who has no choice.

So has everyone reached the "lynch outside the hood" scenario? Of those, who would we lynch? Can I remention our boy Glooble, sitting there scumreading Swan for literally nothing alignment indicative (and even pushing ADK for something from a previous game) all of day 1?

15
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 16, 2019, 06:46:33 pm »
Didn’t your probabilities post tell scum how many PRs they should fake claim?

Is there a way to hide the useful PRs in this plan of yours?  Like, if you are a PGO, don’t claim?  To me, nullifying the usefulness of any (or all, depending) PRs is not worth an easily manipulated claim scheme that doesn’t help me narrow down much of anything, considering I have my reads and the PR probabilities don’t change them.

If I’m incorrect, correct me. But if there’s some magic number of claims that renders your plan useless, I assume scum can figure it out. Heck, if SS is scum, he already did and had this plan hatched from the beginning to pull off an epic scum rolefish. (Which, if true, bravo for the audacity and glory.)

I don't think it requires a lot of thought to think that pushing a scum narrative with a lot of town PRs requires less town PR claims and vice versa. I don't think the probabilities did anything else for scum, it sure said how the odds of there being scum are higher than 50%, which is something I didn't think was true.

PGO should definitely claim, and I think even roleblocker should, but overall the plan's very flimsy. I'm fully against it now.

How confident are in your ash read, and how experience do you have playing with him that you base this on?

Not well enough, I think I only played one game with them as non-scum and they were scum? I thought "acting like ash" was towny, it turned out to be scummy. So now I think ash acting like ash is scummy. I don't remember seeing a lot (well, too much) of this in this game, so I think they're town. Besides, the plan talk sounds flat out risky as scum!ash, given they said the same thing when they were scum. Otherwise, no, I don't have much confidence in my read.

PPE: I can't see what information we gain, scum has so much freedom to claim anything they want.

16
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 16, 2019, 06:07:24 pm »
EFHW? No way. Is that just based on day 1?

It's based on my bigger townreads on ash and Swan. I would probably lynch Swan instead given everyone else's reads, but I don't think it's implausible for scum!EFHW to do this. Then again, I haven't played with such, only read past games, and what I remember is that she was good at it, so maybe I'm just scared.

17
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 16, 2019, 05:24:19 pm »
Ok, I think we should figure out who is in favor or VT / non-VT claim.

*raises hand*

Mix and Glooble have already kind of agreed to it, but obv you can withdraw that if you change your mind.

It's okay, but I think scum can heavily manipulate it. I think it only helps if we get a counterclaim eventually, which is harder to get if we claim.

Also, your probabilities look alright enough, and they certainly point to a high chance of scum!neighbor. But if we're lynching there...I think I want to lynch EFHW. Which is sad because I was just trying to not nullread them...but they're the scummiest of the 3.

I didn't get to look further into Glooble, by the way, I'll try to do it today but don't expect anything, I'm somewhat tired.

18
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 16, 2019, 10:39:01 am »
Once again, MiX is trying to proactively derail a town plan that might put his partners.

What do you mean by "once again"? I pushed for the claim and everything!

19
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 16, 2019, 10:34:44 am »
So it's EFHW/ash/Swan... most likely they're 3 town, since I don't think any of them would pick survivor. Of these 3...yes, I suppose Swan's the scummiest, but I would sooner lynch EFHW...which revealed this information at my request. I think we just outed 3 town. Thank you EFHW.

I need to get a Glooble case ASAP.

This is a scummy reaction to EFHW’s claim and reveal. Once again, MiX is trying to proactively derail a town plan that might put his partners. Who jumps to “they’re obviously all town” like that? Like, that fast. He doesn’t even consider there’s scum there.

vote: MiX

I'm waiting for scum to push one of them, ssshhhhh don't tell anyone.

On the other hand feel free to kill me, I built a very minor case for Glooble based solely on his Swan interaction which is probably really weak but I can't see anything better. I'll post it when it's complete.

20
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 16, 2019, 08:45:12 am »
Short probabilities post. Let's assume no 3d party neighbor. What is the probability p of having two additional town members? It depends on how many PRs scum picked. If it's ...

... 4, then p = 28.6%  (6 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 3, then p = 14.3%  (3 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 2, then p = 04.8%  (1 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 1, then p = 00.0%

Did you factor the fact that third-party removes one of the roles and/or third-party's most likely traitor so there's 1 more PR?

We could verify this via massclaim. That would give us additional information about how many PRs there are. But I don't think there's a world in which I don't want to lynch out of the neighborhood. Probably ash or DatSwan. Probably DatSwan.

If we do this, I sugest a mere "I am PR" or "I am not PR" given there's a bunch that don't mind dying.

I would suspect that scum probably did choose 4 PRs, because if you're going to make one of your scum buddies a neighbor, then you want a lot of town neighbors. In that world, there are 4 roles chosen and one of them is a neighbor. The probbiality of that is 57.1%. The most likely case. This sounds like a reasonable guess.

I wouldn't pick 4 powers, sounds overkill and I don't think there's those many good powers. But I can see why increasing the chances of neighbors is good if you choose to be scum neighbor.

PPE: Oh look what i just said

21
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 16, 2019, 07:25:32 am »
So it's EFHW/ash/Swan... most likely they're 3 town, since I don't think any of them would pick survivor. Of these 3...yes, I suppose Swan's the scummiest, but I would sooner lynch EFHW...which revealed this information at my request. I think we just outed 3 town. Thank you EFHW.

I need to get a Glooble case ASAP.

what? forget the survivor. One of them can be MAFIA.

Fine, but I'm also townreading all of them. I don't think any of them are scum.

22
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 16, 2019, 07:15:05 am »

I need to get a Glooble case ASAP.

I’m ready to vote: MiX finally. He’s admitting he doesn’t actually have a case on me - if he had one, he wouldn’t need to “get” one.

Town wants to find scum. Scum wants to “get a case” on whatever player they’ve decided is today’s easy mislynch.

Scum would've had a case a while ago...but fine, tell me how I can make a case without knowing how you act when you're scum. Everything I could point out as inconsistencies (scumreading Swan for no reason, going back to the other game to scumread Swan some more, saying ADK's also scum because he's lying even though scum's the least likely one to lie...hmm...I actually forgot about everything you did this game that was scummy, should've written it down) you can easily say you're playing differently or you can point at a town game where you do that.

The "easy mislynch" today's...oh yeah it's you. Unless enough people go for Swan(?) or something. Nevermind it's mcmc. So why am I wasting time with you?

23
Puzzles and Challenges / Re: Easy Puzzles
« on: June 16, 2019, 07:04:37 am »
I never played Duration cards during my turns, but I start my next turn 20 cards in play. What has happened?

10 Princes?

24
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 16, 2019, 06:49:25 am »
If Datswan was the scummiest, why would you rather lynch me?

I'm really surprised by your reaction.  Usually you would take more time to go through each possibility.

Ash said he wouldn't pick survivor (I completely trust him on that), you revealed the neighborhood (which is pointless for a survivor, since you determined why survivor isn't in the same neighborhood as scum with your crazy theory) and I doubt Swan's survivor for meta reasons, although I suppose he could be. So if you're either scum or town, I think you're all town because that's what I thought before you revealed.

Swan's "scummiest" because everyone has been scumreading them, which means scum!EFHW would love to give another reason to scumread him. But really I think you're all town.

Does anyone know a good scum!Glooble game? Because he hasn't gotten scum ever since he came back and I'm having a hard time metareading him.

25
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M123: Doomsday Mafia (Day 2)
« on: June 16, 2019, 06:26:18 am »
So it's EFHW/ash/Swan... most likely they're 3 town, since I don't think any of them would pick survivor. Of these 3...yes, I suppose Swan's the scummiest, but I would sooner lynch EFHW...which revealed this information at my request. I think we just outed 3 town. Thank you EFHW.

I need to get a Glooble case ASAP.

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