Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - jotheonah

Filter to certain boards:

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 326
1
It feels like people are just being contrary. No one has shown me why I should abandon a real, substantive case on raerae for what seems to be a dart thrown at a dartboard that landed on LaLight.
But your case on raerae is that she is too towny. And don't you find Lalight's reaction a bit scummy here? I did have reasons for my vote. I chose not to share them yet.
Iím certainly not townreading LaLight. Let me give them a closer look and get back to you.

2
It feels like people are just being contrary. No one has shown me why I should abandon a real, substantive case on raerae for what seems to be a dart thrown at a dartboard that landed on LaLight.

3
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« on: October 19, 2019, 04:16:35 pm »
Hmm you and I are reading this very differently. My thinking is that scum already knew MiX was town so realizing that they were supposed to know now would be an extra leap, vs town actually just realizing it, so it seems like a mistake scum is more likely to make (thinking itís still reasonable to think MiX is scum).

4
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 1)
« on: October 19, 2019, 01:30:25 pm »
Raerae is scum for not engaging until I fought back at her.  Raerae is always good at the back and forth, but scum raerae is not good at engaging with nobody responding to her. 

Townrae is great at digging up stuff and needling away at threads.

Note how her score keeps going down bit by bit as she continued to not engage

This post is a bit of a problem for me. Maybe shraeye has the guts to try to direct the shot to a townread, maybe heís relatively confident heíll fail because MiX expressed a townread on raerae earlier. Or maybe shraeye is scum and raerae is town or vice versa.

5
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 1)
« on: October 19, 2019, 01:26:47 pm »
Nope, killing a townie because you just NEED to use your power is selfish and anti-town but you do you, boo.

a townie? Haven't you been scumreading shraeye like all day?

But he wasn't scum reading shraeye prior to the hammer. If I'm in his shoes I'm venging a previous scumread, not a knee jerk read on the person who hammered me.

Yes I was. Besides I can't kill Swan so...

Because he's your partner?

Just rereading the end of day and I want to flag this from raerae. At this point, does a townie really still think MiX is scum. I mean, I know I made a joke about an epic troll, but for me MiX is basically conf!town by then. So why is raerae making a partner snipe?

People who donít get the raerae case, just go back and reread. Thereís plenty of weirdness that reads fake town.

6
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« on: October 19, 2019, 12:07:46 pm »
does it make sense to extend the day since the site went down for a spell?

7
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« on: October 18, 2019, 05:04:43 pm »
I think the average townie reacts like the rest of us did: hey, town has a new weapon we can use. Yeah, we mislynched, but we get a do-over. Letís put it to the best use we can.

8
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« on: October 18, 2019, 03:21:36 pm »
sometimes scum can do something that they think they would do as town/they think is townie, but actually itís not townie or townie-seeming, because people are imperfect at counter factual thinking.

In fact, this is how scum gets caught 90% of the time. These are not hard concepts.

9
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« on: October 18, 2019, 12:00:13 pm »
What also bothers me here is that in the scum!shraeye scenario you posit that scum!raerae kept it calm under pressure and did the thing that benefits her team. Yet in the town!shraeye scenario, you suggest that she's panicking (when there's no reason to panic). These are wildly different reactions, how do both of them fit raerae's meta?

Maybe "panicking" was the wrong word? I didn't mean it the way you're using it. I just mean, if raerae's scum, then regardless of shraeye's alignment, her reaction to MiX's claim should be read as a time-pressured reaction to clear and present danger. In a situation like that, you have to make a decision fast and commit to it (something that generally I would expect raerae to be good at). Raerae made the decision to adopt a "don't shoot" stance that would accomplish two goals: protect her team from the venge shot, and make her look townie/keep her from having to deal with the politics of trying to direct the shot*. The decision and the nature of it doesn't change that much based on shraeye's alignment. What changes is whether it was a good or bad decision. If shraeye is town, maybe it's a bad decision. But it's still one I can see scum!raerae making in a high stress moment. Does that make sense? There's no inconsistency of character between the two scenarios. The only difference is whether raerae is reacting to an explicit threat to her partner or an implicit threat, based on the fact that MiX was likely to shoot someone and it was hard to guess who.

*To explain this point a little more, trying to direct the shot is a bit perilous for scum, since if they succeed in directing it at town they then look pretty bad.

10
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« on: October 18, 2019, 09:50:43 am »
there is no way to be >50% sure on Day 1

citation needed.

Like, 50% sure is kind of a squishy figure and I'm sure you and I and MiX think of it differently, but I definitely wasn't thinking of it as something impossible and I doubt MiX was. 50% is a fairly low bar. Assuming a 4-person scum team and 15 players, your prior should be 28%. Fifty is much closer to that then to 100.

What are the chances that raerae has a legit scumread on Shraeye at the start of EVERY game?

She always RVS votes shraeye but this was more than that.

11
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« on: October 18, 2019, 09:36:19 am »
Also, man, for people who are overly concerned about my scum case being intricately laid out, you and faust sure are voting for me for no stated reason other than that you disagree with me.

12
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« on: October 18, 2019, 09:35:11 am »
@joth, you gave MiX similar advice - only shoot if >50% sure. But then you gave him permission not to take it. I don't read raerae as panicking at all.

vote: joth

I'm not sure how "shoot at someone if you think they're scum" and "don't shoot" are similar advice. To me they seem very different.

13
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« on: October 18, 2019, 08:18:47 am »
I'm so tired of being mischaracterized my faust.

I am voting raerae because it's raerae's behavior that is odd and rings scummy.

The case for that behavior being scummy is neater if shraeye is scum.

But there is still a case there is shraeye is town.

The shraeye-is-town version basically relies on raerae panicking and making a suboptimal decision. But that is totally believable:

-- Things were moving fast at the end of the day
-- MiX's demeanor created a sense of urgency
-- Coming out hard against using the power AT ALL was the safe bet, because it had less possibility of backfiring

raerae's priority was to keep MiX from shooting. Everyone else's priority was to try to direct his shot to their scumreads. I think that's because her priority was to avoid her worst case scenario: MiX shooting scum.

faust, is this clear? All of this works regardless of shraeye's alignment. It is neater if they're partners, and I have additional evidence that they are partners (their not very convincing day 1 animosity) so that's what I think is most likely.

I note that you haven't really tried to address or refute the notion that raerae and shraeye are partners at all, instead framing it as prima facie scummy/stupid. It is not.

TL;DR My case on raerae does NOT depend on shraeye being scum, but I do think it's likely they're both scum, and faust is being unhelpful and disingenuous, so I honestly wouldn't rule out the three of them being the scum team.

14
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« on: October 18, 2019, 07:05:34 am »
Faust, if I think shraeye and Rae are partners, why is one any better or worse than the other?

ďYou day you like chocolate AND vanilla but the ice cream youíre currently eating right now is only chocolate. Lying scum.Ē

15
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« on: October 17, 2019, 10:25:44 pm »
I would point out that you as well don't provide a satisfying answer to the question:
So why does scum!raerae defend town!shraeye?

1. What makes you so sure shraeye is town?
2. I have given answers. Whether you find them satisfying is kinda your deal, dude.

16
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« on: October 17, 2019, 08:55:34 pm »
People are acting like raerae took a lot of time to decide what her best course of action would be, but my point is exactly the opposite. Look at the time-stamps:

I AM A VENGEFUL TOWNY.

WHO SHOULD I KILL.

WHY SHOULDN'T IT BE SHRAEYE

HELP ME YOU BASTARDS

If you don't have any strong scum reads then the townie thing to do is nothing.

It took raerae all of three minutes to jump to "don't shoot anyone". I don't think she thought through all the possibilities. I think she saw an unexpected danger to her team's wincon and shot from the hip to try to mitigate it. MiX's all caps post there was a little unhinged. raerae could be forgiven for thinking he might pull the trigger any second. "Don't shoot anyone" was damage control. It was almost instinctive. She could have said "Yes, go ahead, do it, shoot shraeye". Maybe that would have worked. Maybe MiX would have been like "nah, you seem too eager. incinerate: raerae." But she went with the safe thing that she thought would look the towniest and be most likely to prevent her team from being vengekilled.

17
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« on: October 17, 2019, 04:13:00 pm »
"Try to put yourself in a scum mindset" was sort of a general plural "you". It was a rhetorical device designed to help explain my raerae case to everyone. Yes, scum is already in a scum mindset, including raerae if she is, in fact, scum.

DatSwan has helpfully done the work I was going to do after my reread to present this case. raerae's reaction to MiX's post-death claim is the scummiest thing that happened yesterday.

Don't worry, still planning to re-read that end of day when I have the time. But for now, can hang with vote: raerae


18
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« on: October 17, 2019, 02:15:01 pm »
Idk how I can be clearer about this. Try to put yourself in a scum mindset. You just pulled off a town lynch. Easy enough on day 1, but still, always a relief. You can exhale. Itís over. But then, your mislynch says he gets a vengekill! And heís talking about your partner. He could shoot at any time. You gotta post something and quick. Whatís the safest townie take? Try to talk him into shooting a townie? Of course not. That just makes you look bad after the shot. So you go to the old ďdonít use the shot, town vigs are negative utility, etc, etc. Thatís what Iím proposing.

I think the average townie reacts like the rest of us did: hey, town has a new weapon we can use. Yeah, we mislynched, but we get a do-over. Letís put it to the best use we can.

19
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« on: October 17, 2019, 01:19:13 pm »
So I have a super busy day today and may not be able to get into it until tomorrow or Saturday. But Iíll be following along best I can. I want to reread before pushing too hard, but right now Iím still feeling like the person who looks scummiest after yesterday is raerae, just based on her reaction to MiXís vengeful townie reveal. Which I suppose also implicates Shraeye.
Walk me through how raerae's reaction makes sense as scum if shraeye is town.

Well, only if raerae made the jump that, if MiX was ready to shoot shraeye he might be willing to shoot her too, given her similar position on the wagon. But I admit that's not strong. My current thinking on shraerae is that they're more likely to be both scum than one scum and one not. Again, I hope a reread will bring clarity when I have time for it.

So I have a super busy day today and may not be able to get into it until tomorrow or Saturday. But Iíll be following along best I can. I want to reread before pushing too hard, but right now Iím still feeling like the person who looks scummiest after yesterday is raerae, just based on her reaction to MiXís vengeful townie reveal. Which I suppose also implicates Shraeye.

I stand by it. He hit town, didn't he? D1 is a stupid time to use that power especially when you're shooting based on who pissed you off most for voting for you.

This is neither here not there, since it's not your suggestion that I found scummy but the tone and timing of it. The Vengekill seemed to freak you out in a way that makes sense for scum and less so for town.

20
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« on: October 17, 2019, 06:19:49 am »
So I have a super busy day today and may not be able to get into it until tomorrow or Saturday. But Iíll be following along best I can. I want to reread before pushing too hard, but right now Iím still feeling like the person who looks scummiest after yesterday is raerae, just based on her reaction to MiXís vengeful townie reveal. Which I suppose also implicates Shraeye.

21
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 2)
« on: October 16, 2019, 09:10:34 pm »
In the story, Sorin and Nahiri basically spend the whole time ignoring the larger war and fighting each other across the plane. So thatís what Nemesis isó probably some kind of lyncher situation. I wonder if that means Nahiri won?

22
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 1)
« on: October 14, 2019, 03:56:14 pm »
My theory that shraeye and raerae are scum together and fake-fighting is looking a bit less likely given that keeping it going at this juncture amounts to a pretty gutsy day 1 bus. Although, it would  explain why raerae went straight to "don't shoot anyone"

23
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 1)
« on: October 14, 2019, 03:51:13 pm »
My preferred targets in order are something like Jimmmmm, Didds, Awaclus, LaLight.

is this most to least preferred?

24
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 1)
« on: October 14, 2019, 03:48:47 pm »
Didds just doesn't generally make cases day 1. She's a lot like I used to be, sticks around and is nice and hopefully helpful in the late game.

It's true that it's a meta that is exploitable as scum, but that doesn't mean she is scum. At best it means, she's 50/50.

25
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM54: War of the Spark Mafia (DAY 1)
« on: October 14, 2019, 03:43:21 pm »
BTW if you are scum and trolling then respect, man, this is an epic troll.

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 326

Page created in 0.128 seconds with 19 queries.