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Messages - Skumpy

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1
General Discussion / Re: Song of the day
« on: November 21, 2018, 11:31:06 pm »

Did you think nobody would remember your pun if you edited it out?

2
General Discussion / Re: Maths thread.
« on: November 15, 2018, 05:49:23 pm »
            1/(n-1)     
Not the answer I expected. Cool problem. Easy enough (and very easy for the average problem in this thread) to get the unsimplified version. Then fun to plug in numbers and watch the telescoping magic.

3
Forum Games / Re: Diplomacy 6: Signups and discussion (4 spots left)
« on: September 06, 2018, 02:31:01 pm »
Noone else interested?

Sorry, Diplomacy's just worn me down too much after my first few games. But it is great fun for at least the first time, and I encourage anybody who's never played to give it a go.

4
I'm defending a lot of my actions, some of which like wanting to keep Raptor alive after he was confirmed scum I stand by and feel good about.
So I will say this once and for all: I sucked. Good game and well played scum, I'm pretty sure nobody ever figured out the full team.

5
It's not 100%, because I also need to find scum and my 1 teammate since I don't get to rely on IC's forever. If it's town's job to convince everybody who thinks they're scum that they're town, then shouldn't gkrieg have been making cases for himself against my vote? The fact that he didn't suggests one and only one thing to me: he wasn't bothering because he was almost as equally sure I was scum. The only argument I currently see him making on D3 is a question to Robz asking why he's so sure I'm town. And even if I convince him, that doesn't mean I'm not going to vote him. I went back and forth on who I thought town was between 3 of the 4 unknowns. Guess who I didn't consider.

Here's the thing though. Once EFHW voted for Raptor, and Robz and silverspawn both voted for him, and then gkrieg refused to vote him and you also refused to vote him, Raptor was 100% confirmed scum. Space and EFHW were both confirmed ICs. So there was a confirmed town vote on Raptor, and all non-IC players refused to take the quickhammer on Raptor at LyLo. At this point, you have confirmed scum. It does matter that you have a 95% scum read on gkrieg, because you can shelve that for another day and take the hammer on 100% confirmed scum.

If you had done that, the game would still be going, but you had your gkrieg blinders on so heavy that you didn't see confirmed scum right in front of your face.

To be fair, I agree that until Lylo you tried really hard to convince gkrieg you were town and got nowhere. And that would be really frustrating. That's why it is so important to play rationally and not emotionally at LyLo and constantly be evaluating the changing game state. Anyway, it's really no big deal. I just wanted to clarify what exactly you did (other than break the rules and get mod-killed) that I believe you can probably learn from for the next game.

I did know Raptor was scum after the non-hammers! I even acknowledged he was confirmed scum. What I said was that scum was going to kill EFHW in the night. That leaves me, ss, Robz, and gkrieg at the time. I thought ss was the town of those 3. Space had said they thought it was gkrieg and Robz as the town. Therefore, the game ends D4 when I thought Space would misvote. If I'm right, which I wasn't, letting Raptor get lynched wins the battle. Not the war. Shelving doesn't do anything, I have to make the hard decision eventually. Preferably with IC's around.

It's not 100%, because I also need to find scum and my 1 teammate since I don't get to rely on IC's forever.

Huh. I was trying hard to persuade you all that having two ICs in so few players was a great opportunity to solve it all, meaning you would have had us to rely on to map things out, and then just an algorithm to execute.

What I had asked for was for people to talk more and not vote, because I was trying to get a good case together on gkrieg being town. I was doing that because I was letting other players' doubts lead me to re-examine my position, and I was half-expecting that he wouldn't be able to follow through and show me that he was telling the truth about a town-tell, which would have turned me over to your position.
But I have more information than you because I know I'm not scum. And if it gets to final 3, then do you want me to sheep the dead ICs or try to think for myself. Again, emphasis on try, since as said before, it's tough to change your mind.

But while my vote was bad and premature, you do realize it was literally everybody except Raptor and us who voted Raptor? I'm for a slow day, I wasn't ever asking for a quicklynch on gkrieg.

6
As for how the game was going to turn out, I think scum may well have won even if Skumpy hadn't been modkilled. We were lynching Raptor, then I think scum had to kill me because they didn't know I only had one single shot, though if their RB takes precedence over EFHW, then they could conceivably have RBd me safely and killed elsewhere, depending on where their RB was (I haven't read the scum QT stuff yet)... I'm still thinking this through, having got home from my evening's rehearsals a short while ago.

Anyway, I think I'd have died in the night. EFHW may have taken my silver case into account... I think he was so obviously conf!scum at the end. I was starting to worry about gkrieg over Skumpy precisely because I was concerned about his alleged town tell on me, which evidently must have been true, or just a very good one-off read on his part. Either way the D4 lynch would have been sliced, D5 ends up with gkrieg, Skumpy and one of the scums.

@silver, I really have to disagree with you when you said that Skumpy was obv!town in your QT. Maybe he appeared that way to scum, but to me he was coming up with some pretty ridiculous reasons to try to undermine my reasoning, while keeping up a lot of active patter with you, and focusing with some intensity on his disagreement with gkrieg to the point where he was unwilling to look at actual evidence. His ATE-style stuff was a little more townie, but the way you and he engaged made him look that much more scummy in my eyes, especially after he seemed to be doing your work for you in distancing from Raptor. Those are my excuses, anyway!! :-P

I'd care about the modkill if it would have changed the outcome. It wouldn't have.

You having 1-shot was very likely, unfortunately. And in any event, scum just roleblocks you and strongmans vs EFHW, and it's no issue.

I never tried to undermine your wagon reasoning Space. I tried to curb it because I have seen wagons go exactly the way you don't think they're supposed to go. I acknowledged it was likely Robz was scum because of the D1 wagon. I never rejected your silver case as bad, I definitely did absorb it. I just always had bigger fish I wanted to fry. And as I said, Raptor's absence tampers with this stuff a lot if he's scum. You could argue you had just as good a shot with him as with Simon if you wanted POE by wagons.

7
I also think that the "two truths out of three" thing Skumpy was trying to force was flawed for exactly the reasons I was trying to say it was, but am not sure I really conveyed: silver and Raptor put in a really good little piece of distancing performance there that Skumpy fell for, because silver was able to see what sort of reaction is actions would likely generate, whereas with the D1 votes I was working with, there was far, far less chance for the scumteam to understand how that might end up influencing the game in future days after the intervening flips.

I do think it's really interesting to look at vote-by-vote states across a game, and I think the reason people aren't so ready to believe me when I assert stuff based on them is just that they're not used to seeing them. Would anyone be interested in me posting the complete coloured-in history for this game? Of course, the downside of this is that I'm going to be less able to trust scum D1 votes in the future if people start getting wise to it, but it's still a hard thing for scum to work with, and also I like the idea of keeping the game fresh and interesting for me too :-)

The two truths and a lie was always correct no matter what! I just didn't know which of the 3.

A big reason for me voting gkrieg was there was scum who voted me D2. If it wasn't gkrieg and it was Raptor, I had to clear him from being on a team with any 2 of {Space, EFHW, silver, Robz}. Also Simon, because I couldn't find a good reason to eliminate Simon/Robz/Raptor, but that ended up being a moot point D3. Space was easy to clear because of the gkrieg read. EFHW was easy to clear since Raptor doesn't place the vote on EFHW over ss unless they're all teamed (whadya know?). But you'll notice when you read back I had to hedge the elimination with silver by consoling myself with Swan's read. I really wanted to get gkrieg, so I had to brush it under the table for good. If there was any 1 piece I wasn't confident on, it was that, and it was something I was making sure to allow myself time to reconsider D3 in case I somehow found Robz townier than Silver.

Wagon stuff helps of course, but there's times when it can lead you astray, as you yourself alluded to in your last sentence.  It might become the norm for all 3 scum to gang up on somebody D1. But it was a very good case on silver, and it's one I never dismissed. I just had dirt on all 4 of the people left, something had to give.

But yes, I'd love to see it.

8
Let me be clear that at this point in time, no matter what it sounds like, I truly bear absolutely no ill will towards anybody. Not Iguana, not gkrieg, not Lalight. Nobody, except maybe myself. And actually maybe towards LaLight for not sticking with probably the most terrifying flavor this site has ever seen. Without further ado:

IMO this is bad strategic thinking. Your job as VT is to convince other towns you are town and draw the Nigjt Kill.

Sure. Except there weren't any more VT kills that were going to happen.

Right, so at the point that you know you won't be killed anymore, your focus can shift toward 100% proving your towniness to people who doubt you and think you are scum. If someone suspects you, even if you think they are scum, that is the person whose arguments you should be engaging most and showing more than anything that they are wrong.

IMO LyLo should be town's last chance for thought reflection and analysis of the whole game. Every town should be going into it ready to reconsider everything, throw their old reads out the window, and solve the game as much as possible. It is absolutely the last place you should ever give into the temptation to throw out an OMGUS vote or be fatalistic about what someone else might do.

It's not 100%, because I also need to find scum and my 1 teammate since I don't get to rely on IC's forever. If it's town's job to convince everybody who thinks they're scum that they're town, then shouldn't gkrieg have been making cases for himself against my vote? The fact that he didn't suggests one and only one thing to me: he wasn't bothering because he was almost as equally sure I was scum. The only argument I currently see him making on D3 is a question to Robz asking why he's so sure I'm town. And even if I convince him, that doesn't mean I'm not going to vote him. I went back and forth on who I thought town was between 3 of the 4 unknowns. Guess who I didn't consider.


Mafia can be explained in 3 words: Hindsight is 20/20.  When you know the scumteam, it's obvious who it is. But for gkrieg, when I'm posting in my way and avoiding the D2 lynch, that is admittedly pretty damning evidence. Again: it's not a bad case, I get it. But it's easy for gkrieg to say "I was starting to come around to you" after the game. Even if it's true (and again, it's a post that implies I still would never become townier than Robz), there's one post I remember reading from M100 that I didn't believe at the time, and now I do (can't remember the who/where); when you have opinions heading into the end, it's incredibly tough to change them. This probably applies to gkrieg this game. It for sure applies to me this game. My guess N2 for the team was (in order of scum): gkrieg/silver/probRobz. During claiming, that then became gkrieg/Robz/probSilver. And by the time claiming was over, it became gkrieg/Robz/probRaptor. Notice the constant? Yes, it's awful. But the absolute most stupid way to look in this game is to correctly accuse a scum all game long...and then change your mind at the last second. And as bad as it sounds, there's something in preferring to lose by sticking to your guns than to risk a win by switching because that latter loss feels so much worse than the former loss. Expected value, in a nutshell. Not all losses are created equal. Which reminds me, Iguana, I believe you have some unfinished business involving your sig.

It's also just flat out not fair to gkrieg to constantly be saying all game "you'll never change your mind about me." I would hate having someone say something like that to me, and it would totally become a self fulfilling prophecy as my annoyance against them would just make my scumread stronger.

I spent several days and posts trying to convince him since I never actually scumread him until N2. He didn't give me anything to respond to except arguments based on tone (which is probably easy eventually with me. But not yet) and an argument on D1 stuff where I never get things right. And the best way to convince someone is to make good reads and play well, which is what I tried to do. Emphasis on 'tried'. My big readthrough at the end of D2, I even gave him town status for tunneling me. When D3 arrives and there's only 1 mystery town left, what're the odds it's the guy who's been going for me all game long? I realized it was perfect camouflage for someone to go after me the entire time because it's me and my posting style, and nobody would ever suspect them because it's always rational for someone to suspect me early on and irrational for scum to stick to someone all game long and make only one other vote that was completely based on my beliefs. Until N2, I'm not sure the possibility that gkrieg was scum crossed anybody's minds, speccy included. That makes me suspicious. It wasn't a pure OMGUS move, it had a 75% chance of being right all other things forgotten. Is that high enough that it's an excuse for me at least not reading back? No. But it's high enough that coupled with other factors and theorizing, I felt pretty good placing it there early before claiming was finished. Lesson learned.

Anyway, again, I mean this as advice, and in all kindness. Your playstyle and approach to the game (an emotional one) reminds a lot of how I played four years ago when I started playing here. But getting emotionally invested in one of these games has the potential to burn you out really fast as well as make you play worse. You don't want to go the way of Yuma, so just bear that in mind going forward.

Understood, appreciated, and duly noted. There's a reason 1 game at a time is my absolute limit. I don't make decisions based on emotion nearly as much as you might think, even though I do play with more emotion than probably anybody (though I'm improving! M105 was about as low as one can go for me). I don't think I've ever made a vote on tone; I do it based on actions, and most importantly, POE lategame. If wagons are Space's calling card, then I'm hoping POE can be mine once I stop forcing it.

And I've looked at the most recent posts of Yuma before; that's a tale with a history I'm well versed in. There's a nonzero probability something could happen to enrage me away from mafia permanently, but it wouldn't be the cause for me to hate any one of you or leave this community altogether.

In other news, thanks for the game Lalight!
^

PPE all of Space and silver (this took a while)

9
Hey guests are viewing this thread.  Means this forum being public at least has a couple people curious.

Mafia Game Threads indicates there's currently 45 of 'em.


Also, while I'm here and still slightly emotional and since you're probably not going to say it:

Somebody go sign up for gkrieg's game. The guy's waited a damn year to get it started.

10
silverspawn is MVP for being active and carrying the game all the way being extremely scummy all the way.

Hey, thanks!

@skumpy: I'm not sure if LaLight pointed this out, but I assume the vote from EFHW didn't count because it didn't have a colon. I take it that you thought that you were preventing a big mod error (and I did too, didn't notice the colon until I double checked)

Been confirmed. Well played, despite everybody except me's confidence you were scum. You were basically my next-up suspect the entire game, until D3 got underway.

11
IMO this is bad strategic thinking. Your job as VT is to convince other towns you are town and draw the Nigjt Kill.

Sure. Except there weren't any more VT kills that were going to happen.

12
Also, @Skumpy, I mean this in the nicest possible way, but you really need to rein yourself in. Your erratic play literally cost town the game.

But really every day we didn't lynch silver, we all failed. There was more evidence for him than you usually get. I mean Space's final day analysis was spot on.

There was never a world in which gkrieg wasn't going to vote me at some point. Therefore, I had to assume he was scum and go from there. Assuming I didn't, Raptor was still confirmed scum today. There was wagon evidence for both Robz and ss since then the Galz wagon would've been totally town before the end ss flip.

I actually think I was starting to come around on you.  Once Raptor had flipped scum, I probably would've wanted to lynch silver next from Space's wagon case, which was strong, and I sadly didn't read fully until now (sorry Space! Just didn't have the time to reread until today).

It'd be nice to believe it, but we all know it's difficult to change opinions when you get to the endgame. And it turns out both IC's were wrong too anyways.

Yeah, that was pretty much a complete garbage game by me.

13
Also, @Skumpy, I mean this in the nicest possible way, but you really need to rein yourself in. Your erratic play literally cost town the game.

But really every day we didn't lynch silver, we all failed. There was more evidence for him than you usually get. I mean Space's final day analysis was spot on.

There was never a world in which gkrieg wasn't going to vote me at some point. Therefore, I had to assume he was scum and go from there. Assuming I didn't, Raptor was still confirmed scum today. There was wagon evidence for both Robz and ss since then the Galz wagon would've been totally town before the end ss flip.

14
Why was the scum team's plan to bus raptor instead of quickhammering gkrieg???

Because I check in literally every 5 minutes.

15
I fail to see how it was extremely alignment-indicative though. I'd made it clear I didn't want Raptor getting lynched today, and he was confirmed scum by that point.

16
Sorry guys

17
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 3)
« on: August 27, 2018, 01:40:30 pm »
I'd be more mad if I was right. Like I said, there was no way me and gkrieg were going to work together.

GG

18
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 3)
« on: August 27, 2018, 01:29:41 pm »
EFHW CHANGED HER VOTE

19
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 3)
« on: August 27, 2018, 11:23:41 am »
Well, agree so far as, he shouldnít be hammered now. Except I donít think anyone should hammer him. Gkrieg says because space isnt here. I say because this is going to confirm in spaceís mind itís me/ss/Raptor. Which is not true.

Even though Raptor is scum, this should be saved for another day. If this makes space more confident Iím scum, oh well. But they should really be wondering why Iím the only one feeling this way when if gkrieg and Robz were town, they donít have this same concern involcing EFHW since sheís set to vote for them. Also for ss to Space, i guess. But hey: 2-1!

20
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 3)
« on: August 27, 2018, 11:11:16 am »
Not hammering. We donít have both ICs on wagon

Hey, we agree!

21
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 3)
« on: August 26, 2018, 02:45:35 pm »
Space and EFHW are IC'd

leaving Gkrieg , Robz, Skumpy and Silver.

Sliver actually seems really townie today. Skumpy is just skumpy, I always want to vote him based off of his tone. I still think that he is more the probably scum. My preferred lynches for today would be gkrieg or robz.

Where the heck did that turnabout come from?

22
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 3)
« on: August 26, 2018, 02:44:52 pm »
Quote

Then scum can't kill an IC without either tipping their hand or letting their enemy survive.
They're killing you and Space in some order the next 2 days anyways if we get correct lynches.
I'm saying that since Space I suspect opposite scumteams, they will have no good choices for the nk.

WIFOM is a thing. And since Space's vig status is unknown to all but Space, that could influence things too, potentially.

Let's see if I can work out the Space reasoning. By their beliefs from "2 truths and a lie", there's one leftover scum in {Skumpy/Robz/Gkrieg}. Since there's 1 scum in Skumpy/Robz, as proven by the Galz wagon, Gkrieg is town. Which makes me scum. Admirable. But there's 3 assumptions that require you to get there. I love POE probably more than anyone else. But these are POE assumptions you need to be more careful with. And when it comes to wagon analysis altogether, you have to remember that you have lurkers complicating matters. And in this case: it's a LOT of lurkers on the scumteam.

I can't take gkrieg or Robz seriously at this point. My mind must be made up.

And you think silver is town when basically every dead townie has said "It's silver!" with their dying breath? Not challenging....just questioning.

23
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 3)
« on: August 26, 2018, 02:00:12 pm »

Space, since EFHW is out of the picture, there's 3 possibilities:
1. You were right about the EFHW-Raptor 1 v 1
2. You were right about the silver scum-because-all-town-wagons
3. I was right about the
Raptor and silver aren't teamed after all. Ah well.

It's 2 truths and a lie! Mafia edition!

I actually think that the most likely thing here is that the scumteam is silver-Skumpy-Raptor, which would explain why you felt you had to make that remark. After all, it's a comment on the playstyle/hostility of two members who, if scum, have a strong incentive to behave in exactly that way, whereas my observations are from back in D1 of the game, where they can't make those kinds of behaviours so overtly because they know they'll have to follow through on them for the whole game, and they don't know how later flips will go (in terms of who will be flipped) to know which wagons are going to look too green to be seen on etc...

So in addition to the page 32 stuff where they go after (which isn't necessarily a sign they're not both scum; I said it was because of the WAY in which the argument went down. Could I be wrong? Sure), there's also the fact that silver and I spent half of D2 accusing Raptor with no other people jumping on the entire day. You love wagon analysis (written before I saw Robz PPE post). That should instantly kill this argument for you, or else I don't understand the manner in which you pick and choose the wagons to look at.

Therefore, either gkrieg is scum or Robz is scum. If gkrieg is scum, I'm town. No ifs, ands, buts around it. If Robz is scum, well, I guess I don't have a good reason why that makes me town yet. But as you said, there's almost certainly a scum between us. Gkrieg's flip hopefully would convince you.

It seems the 4 of us all agree on raptor. Lynch there?
Because I don't know if I agree with that. I guess I'm basing this off Swan's read. But since he's wrong about me, maybe I shouldn't. I'm pretty confident on 2 of the scum, it's the 3rd I'm hesitating on. It would nice to guarantee not getting shutout. But since I have to make the hard decision eventually for a win to happen, I guess now vs later isn't a big deal.

And now that I think about it, apparently I'm the only person who's having doubts. EFHW thinks he's scum. Space thinks he's scum. Robz and silver think I'm town, so Raptor's scum. Gkrieg think Robz is town, so Raptor's scum. I don't know if gkrieg/Robz/silver would want the sweep or the win more.

At this point, I think our scum are the three lurkers.
But definitely closer than Space! Thank you!

Then scum can't kill an IC without either tipping their hand or letting their enemy survive.
They're killing you and Space in some order the next 2 days anyways if we get correct lynches.

24
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 3)
« on: August 26, 2018, 06:42:58 am »
The only premature conclusion is that you now think I'm scum. Real smart play by me.

The only world in which I don't vote gkrieg is the world in which I'm town and think he's town. After this game? Come on. I know what I posted at the end of D2, and I rescind that town button. If he gets to tunnel me relentlessly for 2 weeks and you don't complain, I get to return the favor. We're not both town, else this would be absolutely a pathetic showing, and is completely, utterly done. I'm never going to make him townier than all of {Raptor, silver, Robz}, he's not going to do the same for me. And you should only have to read like 5 of our posts from this game before you realize we're not both scum together.

25
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 3)
« on: August 26, 2018, 06:28:49 am »
Take all the time you want, EFHW. If you think I'm scum, then please DO take your time. But I'm happy with my vote.

Here's the thing. I've never played as town in LYLO. I have played as scum in LYLO. I acted really patient because I thought town is unsure and unconfident in LYLO and wants to take their time to read-through everything. At least town!Skumpy would be.

Now I learn that's total bullshit. I didn't even need ICs to feel ready to start picking out scum, as you saw in my pre-post. I already have a 75% chance without any other factors. If I survive to final 3, maybe I'll start thinking then. No need now.

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