Why did the speed of this go down so much. Why is e so silent given they are basically on the brink of being lynched?
Gonna go ahead and guess it had to do with the E! wagon getting run up so quickly.
Honestly, I am not a fan of this whole "there got to be scum off/on wagon" thingy. That is not a good style to scumread individiuals.
This is a fair point to an extent. You should not "skum read" individuals based on VCA. However, I will argue that "the on wagon off wagon thingy" WHEN WE ACTUALLY LYNCHED SKUM DAY 1... is kind of unarguably a good metric to use to attempt to create pools of potential team mates.
I think mail-mi hesitating to lynch Dylan is evidence of him being scum. If they were town they would have been a tad more eager to just lynch Dylan I think than if they knew of their towniness.
More importantly, they decided to go onto hammer the wagon that had E! on it, who is who they were pushing all day. Which is weird. and I get that.. but then see below...
I don't like e's play yesterday. As he said, he was in full tunnel vision but that might actually be because he and mail-mi are scum together or so and he had to fight really hard to get mail-mi over Dylan. I think I still prefer mail-mi over e in direct lynch comparision because
a) in the scenario where both are scum it doesn't matter
b) in the scenario where e is scum and mail-mi is town, e can be fine pushing less because it was clear one of them will be the target given what almost everyone stated
c) in the scenario where e is town and mail-mi is scum, his tunnel vision still makes sense
Thus, I put more probability mass on c) than on b).
Your ABCs here are like solid in thought. But you gotta ask yourself - If MM is skum, why would they kill Space? I know I have brought that up already, but I am actually asking you in regards to specifically your ABCs above here. Like regardless of whether or not you put merit into the one off one on concept, it was clearly stated to be the state of mind of a lot of players in the game. So...
a) They are both skum. Space is killed. Creates a pool of everyone's favorite choice [E!], a pool of [MailMi, Swan], and then then like [Calam, WCD, LL, Yuma]. This is the point I was kind of referring to in my previous post. This is actually possibly an explanation for the kill choice. They both go for one and other in hopes of giving mass town cred to the other.. I guess. But I mean there would be too many Town players alive for the survivor to avoid suspicion of being alive for the rest of the game... so it is a long shot.
b) E is skum, MM is Town. OK... I know I am town, and the kill choice then creates a field of MM/Swan (town, town), E (skum), and [WCD, Calam, LL, Yuma] (2 town, 1 skum). That is a pretty damn good spot for E to put them plus whoever from [WCD, Calam, LL, Yuma] is skum in.
*** "C" here is now it's own separate point I just came to while i was thinking out loud responding to this ***
c) I actually am slightly potentially changing my mind as I type this one up... MM skum, E Town. MM is then skum with one of [Calam, WCD, LL, Yuma]. Doesn't really make sense for them to isolate themselves into a pool with just me if they are skum... but, and this is what I just thought of right now... it could make sense if they come out with a sequence of let's say..
1) voting for Swowl
2) realizing that doesn't make sense, pointing out why, in attempts to remove both of us from selection
3) moving it to someone else, like E!.
That would make skum team MM+ one of [Calam, WCD, LL, Yuma]. So... plan would of been like... lynch E, kill within the second group, and set up for the long game 2v1. Does that parse?
I missed this while being wrapped up in doing the VCA. This could actually be a thing. Maybe.
I find it super hard to read your post I have to admit, the lines are so super long and I find it very hard to parse what you say, sorry.
I can respond to the "why kill Space"-thingy.
I don't think as much in terms of wagon analysis and I myself would never see an issue with mail-mi killing Space.
I mean, there is no fundamental reason why a scum should be off-wagon, that is not how this whole thing works.
I don't think of it in terms of different lynchpools but in terms of likelihoods of individual players and teams.
Killing someone off wagon and revealing them as town does not much but decrease the probability that scum was off wagon.
And Space is objectively one of the strongest players in the game and was strongly townread by most people and unlikely to be lynched.
I obviously cannot look in mail-mi's head and make estimates whether or not they would think along the same lines but I myself consider the Space kill quite good play by scum here.
And then add a bit of WIFOM to the mix and the fact that Dylan's and Space's lynch very much proved that serious town people can be reasonably assumed to be off-wagon which makes it just bad play to think that scum had to be off wagon. Those kind of unfounded assumptions don't get you an iota closer to finding scum.
