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Messages - Witherweaver

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1
General Discussion / Re: Random Stuff Part III
« on: December 09, 2017, 01:16:01 pm »
Say you have a million doors, with a prize behind one. You pick one door, the host opens 999,998 of them (not the one you picked), making sure not to open the one with the prize behind it, and then you have the opportunity to switch doors.

You'd have to be crazy not to switch. The host almost certainly picked the door he didn't want to open because it had the prize behind it. There was a 1 in a million chance you originally picked the correct door, but the other 999,999/1,000,000 times, the door that the host went out of his way not to open is the one with the prize behind it.

This is phrased slightly misleadingly. The premise of the problem is that the host of opens remaining doors without prizes, so there is no guessing of host's intention.

edit: sorry, I should say remaining up to all but one that are without prizes. If all are without prizes the opening is selected with equal probability.

I'm not sure what you mean but I agree I didn't say that clearly. What I meant was that in almost all cases, the host is forced to open all but the door with the prize behind it.

I guess another way you can think about it is that when you switch, you are betting that the prize is behind any one of the doors you didn't originally pick; if you don't switch, you are betting it is behind the single door you originally picked.

I just mean the way you said it sounds as if the host has choice in the matter. Really the host is only flavor; the game runs algorithmically based on only the player's decision.

2
General Discussion / Re: Random Stuff Part III
« on: December 09, 2017, 11:48:02 am »
Say you have a million doors, with a prize behind one. You pick one door, the host opens 999,998 of them (not the one you picked), making sure not to open the one with the prize behind it, and then you have the opportunity to switch doors.

You'd have to be crazy not to switch. The host almost certainly picked the door he didn't want to open because it had the prize behind it. There was a 1 in a million chance you originally picked the correct door, but the other 999,999/1,000,000 times, the door that the host went out of his way not to open is the one with the prize behind it.

This is phrased slightly misleadingly. The premise of the problem is that the host of opens remaining doors without prizes, so there is no guessing of host's intention.

edit: sorry, I should say remaining up to all but one that are without prizes. If all are without prizes the opening is selected with equal probability.

3
Dominion General Discussion / Re: farmer's market is pretty good
« on: December 07, 2017, 12:14:11 am »
It's where I get all my organic VPs.

4
General Discussion / Re: TV shows
« on: December 06, 2017, 12:47:44 pm »
So I finally watched American Gods, and it was fantastic. Unfortunately Fuller has left the project, so Season 2 will be made under someone else. I'm guessing style will change. I think it will still be good, though.

I also watched Dirk Gently's Holistic Detective Agency. Highly entertaining. I also didn't realize it was based on Douglas Adams novels.


5
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Interview with Donald X.
« on: December 05, 2017, 11:51:47 am »
Donald,
Once again, thanks for answering all these questions.

Onto: I'm curious about how you got your name plastered on the Dominion box. How does that happen? I mean, I know that once you've won two Spiel awards, any publisher would be dumb to not put your name on the box; But, when the first Dominion game came out, I understand your name was on the box. Is this just how RGG rolls? Is there a fun story here?

I imagine it went something like this:


6
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Interview with Donald X.
« on: November 30, 2017, 11:31:49 pm »
Whatís the most fun you can have with a deck of traditional playing cards?

Strip Poker.

Or maybe Bridge.

Come on, making card-houses is way more fun.

Being Gambit and blowing stuff up.

7
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Homage to the Best Card
« on: November 30, 2017, 10:05:30 am »
I understand none of these latest references.

8
Dominion FAQ / Re: Maximum Possible VP?
« on: November 29, 2017, 05:50:45 pm »
... the kingdom is, I mean.

9
Dominion FAQ / Re: Maximum Possible VP?
« on: November 29, 2017, 05:11:19 pm »
You can go infinite with Overlord, Crown, Mandarin, Watchtower, Lurker, Raze and Monument.

Or with 5 Highways, a Goons and a Trader with Forum in the supply.

It'd be fun to troll people with this kingdom.  I mean, more fun than other trolling at least.

I came here to gain Silvers and troll kingdoms. And I'm all out of Silvers.

10
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Homage to the Best Card
« on: November 29, 2017, 03:42:08 pm »
Leprechaun should be True Neutral.

11
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The 5/2 rule
« on: November 27, 2017, 09:30:38 am »
Itís like the Dire Straits song. I never understood what advantage there was to getting chicks for free; if you were also getting money for nothing.

There's a certain social stigma attached to getting chicks for money.
There's usually some cost, still. It just isn't always a direct transaction.

Yes itís kinda like that other Dire Straits song:
When you can fall for chains of silver you can fall for chains of gold
You can fall for pretty strangers and the promises they hold

Oh, hey, The Killers covered this on an acoustic album. I didn't know it was originally a Dire Straits song.

12
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The 5/2 rule
« on: November 24, 2017, 10:22:16 am »
Ferry.  Plan.

Ferry works in the way that Alms works, by having a similar effect without technically working. Plan doesn't work at all? Unless you just mean that it lets you do something different/new on the first 2 turns.. but it doesn't change what you can afford on turn 2.

Ferry lets you open 0/6 or 0/5.  Plan (and Bonfire, actually) don't change split values, but do change deck compositions after the first shuffle.
Every card you buy changes your deck composition after the first shuffle...

Except when it doesn't!

13
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The 5/2 rule
« on: November 22, 2017, 10:33:49 am »
If you start with 2 coin your next hand has 5 coin. If you start with 5 coin your next hand has two coin. Seems consistent.

My take is that this is true whenever it is true, and false whenever it is false.

14
Dominion Articles / Re: Bard is not weak
« on: November 17, 2017, 06:33:16 pm »
The fact that you don't get to choose which of the effects is a big deal. Image how much weaker Steward would be if instead of saying "Choose one:..." it said "Do one of these three things, chosen at random:...". Bard is like that but with (up to) 12 things instead of 3.

Bard is not like that at all. You get the most important effect, which is +$2, every time, and almost all of the Boons are strictly beneficial in almost any situation.

Maybe Governor is a better analogy. "+1 Action. Choose one: ..." >> "+1 Action. Do one of these three things, chosen at random:..." Idk, maybe I'm a bit jaded cus I just played a Scrying Pool game where I got 2 Bards specifically for their +Buy and no othe reason, and well lets just say that did not work out in my favor.

Bard also feels a bit like Black Market to me. In some cases it's just a terminal Silver but in other cases it's terminal Silver plus jackpot.

Some times you just don't know how a song is going to inspire you.

15
Dominion Articles / Re: Bard is not weak
« on: November 17, 2017, 06:07:37 pm »
The apparent problem with the bard is that he seems aimless. The bard does stuff, but is he doing stuff that will create your game winning deck?

Spoony Bard!

16
Dominion: Nocturne Previews / Re: Nocturne Initial Impressions
« on: November 17, 2017, 01:07:50 pm »
Yeah man, I'm super disappointed that none of the cards have animated gif arts.
I mean, it's two thousand and friggin seventeen fer cripes-sakes. You would think they could do that by now.

Donaldpls

17
Dominion: Nocturne Previews / Re: Nocturne Initial Impressions
« on: November 16, 2017, 02:31:16 pm »
Okay. Now all of the cards are out. What stands out? What seems bad? Any sleepers? Any duds?

Dominion is more ruined than ever before!

18
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Male and female cards (again)
« on: November 16, 2017, 02:07:20 pm »
I don't see why censual data for Dominion's world ought to be in extremely high agreement with that from the comparable era of our own history. The idea I think is that you want to have a theme, and I think we do and that genders does not affect it much, if at all.

19
Dominion: Nocturne Previews / Re: Don't be fooled, nothing for you here
« on: November 16, 2017, 11:46:14 am »
This thread is modern art at this point.

Do you consider the thread to exhibit synergy?

20
Dominion: Nocturne Previews / Re: What did we get wrong before?
« on: November 10, 2017, 03:32:32 pm »
I'm pretty sure the Cultist was the first to ruin Dominion.

Death Cart ruined it for me.

21
Dominion: Nocturne Previews / Re: What did we get wrong before?
« on: November 10, 2017, 11:25:27 am »
How many times has Dominion been ruined now? I've lost track.
Just once. In Dark Ages.

Damn you Beggar.

He's a Vagrant.

22
Dominion: Nocturne Previews / Re: Another awful thread about nothing
« on: November 10, 2017, 09:22:51 am »
You know, technically this thread isn't about nothing. I mean, we wouldn't spend 3 pages arguing about what the word "nothing" means, right guys?

Please start a thread about "nothing". Not about nothing, because that's what this thread is. Try not to be ambiguous.

23
Dominion: Nocturne Previews / Re: Another awful thread about nothing
« on: November 10, 2017, 09:01:22 am »
Full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.

24
Oh, I see now.

25
Yes it was a joke, but I'm told that jokes are funnier when explained.

Bose-Einstein statistics are a way of dealing with indistinguishable particles.  In classical statistics, if you have two particles you might label them 1 and 2, but in Bose-Einstein statistics you cannot give them separate labels.

Consider the situation where we have two particles and two boxes.  In classical statistics, there are 4 ways to distribute the particles:
12 | _
1 | 2
2 | 1
_ | 12
And if we assign each of these possibilities equal weight, then there's a 1/4 chance that the left box is empty.

In Bose-Einstein statistics, there are only 3 ways:
11 | _
1 | 1
_ | 11
And only 1/3 chance that the left box is empty.

If hands were boxes, and coppers were bosons, then splitting 5/2 would be just as likely as 3/4.  Or something.  Hands aren't really like boxes though, and reinterpreting Dominion in terms of Bose-Einstein statistics is fraught.  The joke is that not even quantum physics can rescue eHalcyon's claims.

But Coppers are already like Bosons, because we don't distinguish between the Coppers. I think you'd need Coppers and Estates to be identical Bosons.

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