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Other Board Games / Re: Puzzle Strike
« on: May 17, 2013, 12:44:05 pm »
You should hear theory rant about Puzzle Strike and Sirlin.
Dominion Strategy Forum
- May 19, 2013, 08:09:23 pm
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2
Dominion General Discussion / Re: How many points is 1st player advantage?
« on: May 11, 2013, 08:09:02 pm »
The stats here might be useful.
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=20.msg438#msg438
Gwinn's estimate seems reasonable, in light of that data.
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=20.msg438#msg438
Gwinn's estimate seems reasonable, in light of that data.
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Dominion General Discussion / Re: How do you guys not get bored?
« on: May 06, 2013, 03:03:00 pm »
The solution is there to be a persistent threat of manual game review/account block. You cheat, we'll ban you and keep your money. Keep a healthy sense of fear in players.
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Dominion General Discussion / Re: The WW Rating System
« on: May 03, 2013, 03:38:49 pm »
The probability your probabilistic model assigns to reality is a solid measure. There are other task specific measures that people often care about, but doing well on that measure will tend to mean good things for your system and will likely be pretty correlated with task specific measures.
A long time ago, I evaluated a few rating systems I was interested at the time (TopCoder, Elo, Glicko), you can check out my writeup/slides if interested.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/lr3dwgk6w0c0c6s/slides.pdf
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ufyr22ywlytiqjx/writeup.pdf
A long time ago, I evaluated a few rating systems I was interested at the time (TopCoder, Elo, Glicko), you can check out my writeup/slides if interested.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/lr3dwgk6w0c0c6s/slides.pdf
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ufyr22ywlytiqjx/writeup.pdf
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Dominion General Discussion / Re: The WW Rating System
« on: May 03, 2013, 11:35:34 am »
Others have implemented other systems. You don't have to implement them. You just need to use them. Microsoft publishes the game data set they used to design TrueSkill. I can hunt down an iso dominion game set in CSV if you want.
IMO, the one true measure of a probabilistic prediction system is the likelihood it assigns to the unobserved event stream you are trying to model.
IMO, the one true measure of a probabilistic prediction system is the likelihood it assigns to the unobserved event stream you are trying to model.
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Dominion General Discussion / Re: I need to remove some cards from my games
« on: April 28, 2013, 01:55:17 pm »
Maybe he wants to play 20 to 50 games of dominion in his life, he doesn't care to know what makes the game really tick, and he just wants to have fun with a quick heuristic that avoids trap cards.
Not everyone lives and breaths Dominion, and I think that's okay
.
Not everyone lives and breaths Dominion, and I think that's okay
.
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Dominion General Discussion / Re: I need to remove some cards from my games
« on: April 28, 2013, 01:45:12 pm »
Here is a decent list of the cards in those expansions.
Base, Intrigue, and Prosperity card rankings.
Click quality, and it will sort the cards by their ability to help people win games on average according to a simple model I developed. The model tries to mimic bunch of card rankings from experts in this community based mostly on observed play data from millions of games.
Of course, some of the most winning cards are arguably the most frustrating (Witch, Mountebank). Some of the bad cards (eg, Workshop) can shine when paired with a good combo, like Gardens.
Base, Intrigue, and Prosperity card rankings.
Click quality, and it will sort the cards by their ability to help people win games on average according to a simple model I developed. The model tries to mimic bunch of card rankings from experts in this community based mostly on observed play data from millions of games.
Of course, some of the most winning cards are arguably the most frustrating (Witch, Mountebank). Some of the bad cards (eg, Workshop) can shine when paired with a good combo, like Gardens.
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Dominion General Discussion / Re: The WW Rating System
« on: April 26, 2013, 06:18:01 pm »
The game count lets other people easily debug if you've missed some of their games, for instance.
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Dominion General Discussion / Re: The WW Rating System
« on: April 21, 2013, 05:26:04 pm »
I think DStu has downloaded the all the goko logs and probably has a system set up to do so.
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General Discussion / Re: Google Code Jam
« on: April 15, 2013, 08:44:38 pm »
You can modify that solution so that it can return the kth best strategy in O(Q) time (==length to print it out) by keeping around some back pointers without an asymptotic slow down in time usage, as long as k < M. The memory usage would increase to O(M*Q) instead of O(M).
The key insight to solve it used by that answer is that a top M solution after k steps contained a top M solution after k-1 steps. So you never need to keep around that many partial answers to get a great final answer.
The key insight to solve it used by that answer is that a top M solution after k steps contained a top M solution after k-1 steps. So you never need to keep around that many partial answers to get a great final answer.
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General Discussion / Re: Google Code Jam
« on: April 13, 2013, 03:36:45 pm »
It's not really scary at all.
I thought it was cool because so many programming contest problems are dynamic programming problems, and my intended solution isn't really DP. But alas, there is a simple DP solution ;(.
There are plenty of solutions online. This one is simple/good.
http://chrk.atwebpages.com/index.php?title=Test_Passing_Probability
My intended solution is basically finding the top M shortest paths in a very structured/restricted graph induced by the test questions. Anytime you pick a particular response for a question, you pay a cost that is proportional to the log of the probability of it being right. And then the cost of a set of responses(=path) is the sum of the individual costs. The independence assumptions means that all the good response sets are very related so you can explore only the best ones without suffering from the exponential explosion of brute force.
I thought it was cool because so many programming contest problems are dynamic programming problems, and my intended solution isn't really DP. But alas, there is a simple DP solution ;(.
There are plenty of solutions online. This one is simple/good.
http://chrk.atwebpages.com/index.php?title=Test_Passing_Probability
My intended solution is basically finding the top M shortest paths in a very structured/restricted graph induced by the test questions. Anytime you pick a particular response for a question, you pay a cost that is proportional to the log of the probability of it being right. And then the cost of a set of responses(=path) is the sum of the individual costs. The independence assumptions means that all the good response sets are very related so you can explore only the best ones without suffering from the exponential explosion of brute force.
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General Discussion / Re: Google Code Jam
« on: April 13, 2013, 01:05:38 pm »
I wrote this problem for Code Jam 2008.
https://code.google.com/codejam/contest/32008/dashboard#s=p2&a=2
https://code.google.com/codejam/contest/32008/dashboard#s=p2&a=2
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General Discussion / Re: rspeer's company featured on mashable
« on: April 12, 2013, 06:35:30 pm »
Maybe search for Rob Speer ;P.
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Dominion Online / Re: Victory point tracker
« on: April 12, 2013, 05:30:30 pm »
That all seems reasonable to me. You probably want to include the #vp text by default if the user is using the plugin.
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Dominion Online / Re: An unfamiliar bane
« on: April 09, 2013, 05:24:30 pm »
Definitely familiar. Potion > $2.
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News and Announcements / The forums might go down for a little while today
« on: April 09, 2013, 02:52:03 pm »
I am taking the free Linode memory upgrade on the server that runs the forum. Linode says this should take about 20 minutes after it starts.
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Dominion Online / Re: An unfamiliar bane
« on: April 09, 2013, 02:25:07 pm »
From ACM practice, general strategy for implementing lexicographic comparison with fields ordered by f1, f2, f3, ...
It always works, it's obviously correct (okay, to be fair, maybe this takes getting familiar with the pattern), etc. you waste no time thinking about edge cases or demorgan's law.
Code: [Select]
if (a.f1 != b.f1) return a.f1 < b.f1;
if (a.f2 != b.f2) return a.f2 < b.f2;
if (a.f3 != b.f3) return a.f3 < b.f3;
...
It always works, it's obviously correct (okay, to be fair, maybe this takes getting familiar with the pattern), etc. you waste no time thinking about edge cases or demorgan's law.
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Innovation General Discussion / Re: Opening Meld Statistics
« on: April 09, 2013, 12:05:35 pm »
Let n = number of times played, w = games won.
p = w / n
var = p * (1 - p) / n
sigma = sqrt(var)
confidence_interval = p +- 2 * sigma
p = w / n
var = p * (1 - p) / n
sigma = sqrt(var)
confidence_interval = p +- 2 * sigma
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Dominion Online / Re: The Rating System
« on: April 06, 2013, 06:44:43 pm »
Goko's ranking system sucking is a good reason to just go and make your own.
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Innovation General Discussion / Re: Thematic cards
« on: April 05, 2013, 12:06:25 pm »
Clothing helps you score? wat!
I am a sex with socks on kind of guy, but for the most part, less clothing -> more scoring.
I am a sex with socks on kind of guy, but for the most part, less clothing -> more scoring.
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Dominion General Discussion / Re: adventurer can be good in colony games
« on: April 04, 2013, 03:56:03 pm »
councilroom confirms it.
http://councilroom.com/supply_win?&targets=adventurer&interaction=true&nested=false&unconditional=true
According to CR, colony is the 9th best helper for adventurer.
http://councilroom.com/supply_win?&targets=adventurer&interaction=true&nested=false&unconditional=true
According to CR, colony is the 9th best helper for adventurer.
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General Discussion / April 1st, the worst day of the year for the internet
« on: April 01, 2013, 11:10:48 am »
Maybe I have no sense of humor, but for the most part, april fool's day jokes suck.
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Dominion Online / Re: Goko log parser - now for Chrome!
« on: April 01, 2013, 11:07:06 am »
I am generally a fan of skepticism, but
A) It's only javascript. For this to do anything bad to your computer would require an exploitable bug in firefox. Not that these never exist, but infected O(100) users on a dominion fan website seems like a terrible waste of such an exploit.
B) You can see the included source in the add-on, if you want. (download the XPI and unzip it)
I got extracted the source code. The only difference between nutki's viewer.js and the one included in the firefox add-on is the line break extension. I am guessing nutki is only mac/linux, and gokologviewer is a windows user. On the other hand, there is a lot of boiler plate code that I didn't look through that is either the product of a chrome->firefox extension tool, or just included with every firefox add-on.
A) It's only javascript. For this to do anything bad to your computer would require an exploitable bug in firefox. Not that these never exist, but infected O(100) users on a dominion fan website seems like a terrible waste of such an exploit.
B) You can see the included source in the add-on, if you want. (download the XPI and unzip it)
I got extracted the source code. The only difference between nutki's viewer.js and the one included in the firefox add-on is the line break extension. I am guessing nutki is only mac/linux, and gokologviewer is a windows user. On the other hand, there is a lot of boiler plate code that I didn't look through that is either the product of a chrome->firefox extension tool, or just included with every firefox add-on.
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Innovation General Discussion / Re: Time allocated to players
« on: March 31, 2013, 04:51:00 pm »
I disagree. Let's make player time a visible resource to be managed. Online poker figured this out well. You have something like 30 seconds per decision, and an extra 'overtime' budget that dwindles after your turns take longer than 30 seconds. It seems like a great solution to me.