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Messages - Awaclus

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1
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: October 22, 2021, 07:47:20 am »
What do you mean by assumption? Fitting a linear model to a bunch of features of movies or shows doesn't seem to require any assumptions

The assumption that such a linear model will reflect what users want to watch.

2
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: October 22, 2021, 06:43:47 am »
It does seem stupid though, why treat movies as black boxes when you have plenty of features you use instead?

I think it's smart. Over time, it gets relatively effective for the average user, and the algorithm doesn't have to care what it's recommending as long as people are clicking on the recommendations. A fancier algorithm could more easily have all kinds of pitfalls, as it would have to make more substantial assumptions and the thing about assumptions is that they can be wrong.

3
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: October 21, 2021, 06:29:30 am »
I'm not a Netflix user, is the algorithm supposedly based on human-understandable classifications of what the movies actually contain? Most recommendation algorithms just recommend people stuff, keep track of what recommendations worked on whom, and then recommend the same thing to other similar people, regardless of the contents.

4
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: October 17, 2021, 09:50:36 am »
The taste of meat is not very strong or impressive in any way. What's great about it is the texture.

5
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: October 16, 2021, 07:12:44 am »
Today I had a near car accident. Which is remarkable because I don't have a diver's license and only rarely let others drive me around.

Sounds perfectly natural so far. If you don't have a license, maybe it would be a good idea to let someone else do the driving.

6
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Anti-Necro Games II
« on: October 13, 2021, 01:09:17 pm »
 8)

7
General Discussion / Re: Brag Board
« on: October 12, 2021, 06:27:48 pm »
I've taken the gender contiuum test. After the test itself, there was a part where you were given 18 traits and had to predict which 9 of them scored higher for women than men across their dataset.

I got 100% of them correct :-)

I only got 14 of them correct, I was also more womanly than the average woman in all of the traits I got wrong.

8
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Anti-Necro Games II
« on: October 12, 2021, 05:35:25 pm »
Don't worry, maybe you'll win this one!

9
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Anti-Necro Games II
« on: October 12, 2021, 05:28:15 pm »
Maybe!

10
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Anti-Necro Games II
« on: October 12, 2021, 01:18:38 pm »
Third time's the charm, this time I'm going to win for sure!

11
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Anti-Necro Games II
« on: October 12, 2021, 08:42:58 am »
Eh, whatever. I'm going to win game 29!

12
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Anti-Necro Games II
« on: October 12, 2021, 08:30:26 am »
post

13
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Anti-Necro Games II
« on: October 12, 2021, 08:26:56 am »
I'm going to win game 24!

14
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Anti-Necro Games II
« on: October 12, 2021, 08:19:28 am »
I think faust won Game 12. (Final post of that Game was #17)

Double posting is not forbidden, it is just never really in your interests to do it.

Didn't MiX win it? I'm pretty sure 20 was the final post.

15
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Anti-Necro Games II
« on: October 12, 2021, 08:16:25 am »
Wait, I still got it wrong. The post that completes a game is not considered a part of the completed game, so I originally got it correct and it's the second-shortest necro that wins, and double-posting is indeed possible but it just wins the game for someone else.

16
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Anti-Necro Games II
« on: October 12, 2021, 08:13:05 am »
Turns out it is very complicated after all, because I think I got it wrong, it's still the shortest necro that wins.

However, I think I also found a loophole in the rules. Double-posting is not forbidden, it just completes the ongoing game.

17
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Anti-Necro Games II
« on: October 12, 2021, 08:07:49 am »
Yes.

I think fang won? I don't think I'll fully understand this anytime soon.

It's not very complicated: the game ends when someone posts a longer necro than the previous one, at which point the second shortest necro wins.

18
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Anti-Necro Games II
« on: October 12, 2021, 04:58:21 am »
Can I play too?

19
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: September 27, 2021, 10:11:59 am »
There also isn't any small party I'm enthusiastic about tbh.

I'm personally pretty enthusiastic about Piratenpartei. (I'm a member in the Finnish Pirate Party, for the record.)

I have actually heard good things about the Pirate Party in Finland from people who aren't likely to say good things about any party anywhere. I'm not sure that the Pirate Party in Germany is as good though it's possible

All Pirate Parties have the same core values, and even the interpretation thereof is generally almost identical between different countries, and we do a lot of international cooperation and stuff. The German Pirates are unfortunately a bit of an outlier with their anti-nuclear stance, but that seems to be normal in Germany. Other than that, I'm under the impression that they pretty much advocate for the exact same things as we do.

20
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: September 26, 2021, 03:10:48 pm »
There also isn't any small party I'm enthusiastic about tbh.

I'm personally pretty enthusiastic about Piratenpartei. (I'm a member in the Finnish Pirate Party, for the record.)

21
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: September 26, 2021, 01:38:12 pm »
Not to mention, parties don't necessarily have to get elected to make a difference. Votes for small parties put (small amounts of) pressure on their bigger competitors to change their agenda to incorporate some of the same themes to keep the small party from becoming relevant.

22
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: September 26, 2021, 01:34:49 pm »
Yeah -- but if that's how things are right now, then that's what you're left with in terms of the EV. You can do things to change that, but by itself the argument "if everyone changed their behavior at once the way I'm doing right now" only carries weight in non-consequentialist land. Coordination problems are allowed to be hard or even impossible to solve.

I guess, but voting for a small party in and of itself is doing things to change that. If, say, Tierschutzpartei suddenly got a lot more votes than expected, next election they would be closer to that 5% threshold.

23
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: September 25, 2021, 04:57:43 pm »
However, if you take a party like the Tierschutzpartei (Animal protection party), the probability distribution is totally different. It's almost certainly going to get below 1%.

Well, it's certainly going to get below 1% if everyone who supports it as their favorite party votes for a different party instead.

24
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: September 25, 2021, 04:06:38 pm »
but (>5%) parties don't get the same number of seats regardless of my vote; they get seats proportional to their vote share.

In which your individual vote is unlikely to be significant.

Ah, but if you need N votes on average for every seat, then voting for a party has chance 1/N to increase the number of seats by one. If you treat this as a random variable (which it is), then the expected value is just 1/N * (value of one seat), which is exactly the same as if every vote counts equally.

After all, say you take N people who change their vote from party X to party Y. If this happens successively, then the seat must flip after one of those N people. As long as you have no idea where in that process you are, again you have 1/N to flip the seat and (N-1)/N to do nothing, which yields expected impact of (1/N)*(value of one seat).

The same principle is true for every system that is comprised of many small inputs and reacts at a low resolution, like if you stop eating meat or reduce your footprint.

And like if you vote for a small party. The resolution is just lower in that case, but if you're that one vote that pushes the party over the 5% threshold, you also make a much bigger impact accordingly.

25
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: The Necro Wars
« on: September 25, 2021, 03:12:41 pm »
but (>5%) parties don't get the same number of seats regardless of my vote; they get seats proportional to their vote share.

In which your individual vote is unlikely to be significant.

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