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Messages - manda2014

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1
Note that mcmc has two votes on him now as well...I think I've lost some faith in that argument though, considering that it could leave scum open to a potential roleblock if they didn't do it subtly enough, and also now that they're aware of it they can try to use it to manipulate the discussion.

At this point I think I prefer the manda lynch. Her post now was just as non-committal as she has been all game, "sure, I'll lynch mcmc, whatever...". Also, the PPE...did it really take you 40+ minutes to write that out manda? Maybe that's a minor point, but it jumped out at me. I think a manda/mcmc scumteam is a real possibility.

mcmc is still my second choice I guess, but I'm getting spooked that maybe the mcmc lynch is feeling too easy. Have we really heard anyone object strongly to it? It seems like "sure, I'll lynch mcmc, whatever..." is the prevailing attitude at this point. I don't know if that's how scum would react in this situation, maybe they're confident enough to bus by this point...I don't know. I'm just feeling as if the mcmc lynch has too little resistance to be real scum. Grrr, I'm triple-guessing myself here...

No, of course it didn't take that long to write. I was just doing a lot of things at the same time.

2
Okay my read on mcmc hasn't really changed since I last posted, and for all the reasons I stated previously (jumping in very quickly with his votes, etc).

As far as Voltaire is concerned I am becoming more convinced that he is town. I'm certainly not positive, but operating under the assumption (as I am) that mcmc is scum, the quickhammer situation makes sense. The problem, though, is that I haven't reaaaally seen any reason to say Teproc is scum, so I'm really torn between the two of them.

I will vote for mcmc, but I don't want to put him at an L-1 situation unless everyone feels comfortable with it being lynch time.

Also I'll be around the rest of tonight and most of tomorrow.

PPE: mcmc basing so much of his decision-making on "knowing Robz was right" makes me even more comfortable in my suspicion.

3
I'm here. Sorry, today has been pretty hectic. I'll post a review of volt and mcmc soon, as requested.

4
We've stalled out again.

We have had some action past this post, but I agree with the sentiment.  I am a strong advocate for a soft deadline.  drawing things out to the last second is never good.  I understand that has had to happen due to various V/LA stuff, but I think we are all here and can get something done.

Soft deadline at 11:59PM Sunday, Jan 5?  That gives us Friday and the weekend to figure something out.  I am confident that we can, and if we just look at the deadline as the 8th we will continue to have spurts of small activity but nothing real actually happening.
^^forum time.  (Eastern US)

I will be mostly V/LA Saturday and Sunday (5th and 6th) because of packing/moving back to school/completing graduate school applications. Depending on traffic I may be able to get a post in right before that soft deadline.

5
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« on: December 31, 2013, 03:02:38 pm »
Okay so I think the argument for no-lynch is just slightly stronger than the argument for a lynch. Having some confirmation on the PRs is especially enticing.

If we are going to lynch, however, mcmc seems scummy. He is jumping on things really quickly and that just does not sit right with me. He was really quick to hammer robz without giving people a chance for final comments (I would have left my vote until much closer to the deadline, but I wasn't going to be around). And then he jumped in really quickly with a vote on Volt.

6
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day4)
« on: December 31, 2013, 02:50:50 pm »
I'm here. I need to do a reread but based on my initial read-through I think no-lynch is probably the right call.

7
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« on: December 27, 2013, 01:21:07 pm »
I slept on my read last night and nothing has changed, so I'm going to go ahead and vote: Robz.
I'll be at work until the deadline, with a poooooossible chance to check in at some point between 3 and 6 forum time, so I likely won't be able to move my vote.

8
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« on: December 27, 2013, 01:42:59 am »
Here's the thing about Robz currently.... his defense of himself is SO BAD. I mean honestly, reference to personal meta, sarcasm, and then throwing your hands up in defeat? That is not a defense at all. I like to think scum would try a little harder to stay alive, so either: he's town, playing like town OR he's scum framing himself as town. The reference to his own meta makes the second option seem much more likely.

9
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« on: December 24, 2013, 12:15:18 am »
Robz is scum!

Quote
vote: mcmc

Quote
I don't actually think it's mcmc/Robz though.

This seems incongruent.

Seems like more of an OMGUS vote..

10
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« on: December 23, 2013, 11:03:12 pm »
The Unclaimed:

Voltaire
Robz
manda
Teproc
mcmcsalot

Everyone, please order these players from least scummy to most scummy.

Voltaire
Robz
manda
Teproc
mcmc

The Unclaimed:

Voltaire
Robz
manda
Teproc
mcmcsalot

Everyone, please order these players from least scummy to most scummy.

Robz
manda
mcmcsalot
Voltaire
Teproc

Scum team?

mcmc, are you saying there's something in these two posts that makes you think they are the scum team?

11
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« on: December 21, 2013, 01:03:43 am »
I'm Fantastic Mr. Fox (VT), from... Fantastic Mr. Fox , which I had never heard of before this game.

12
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« on: December 19, 2013, 12:31:31 am »
I know I said earlier that I was pretty convinced Robz was town, but that read is getting less solid. A conviction based on a gut feeling is fine, but just begging people to trust you based on your insistence that you're town is a bit weak, especially when your support for that claim is reference to your own meta.... as I've said before, a smart player knows their own meta and can play to it. Sure, meta-analysis is helpful for subtle analysis but referencing your OWN meta is not a strong argument. I'm not convinced Robz is scum, but I'm also really starting to question my town read.

The catch here, of course, is that this argument may be TOO weak for a scum player on top of his game.

13
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« on: December 17, 2013, 02:14:25 am »
Alright so reads:

Robz & Voltaire: despite somewhat of a disagreement-that-wasn't-actually-a-disagreement, both are helpful & useful. Town, I think

Walrus & Jimmm: I'm inclined to believe both claims. A double-fakeclaim gambit feels like too much. Town.

Teproc: long, useful post referencing all of ash's interactions, but I can easily see that as an attempt to gain town cred, especially because that review didn't reveal anything solid. Slight scum read

2.7: I have to agree with Voltaire that fakeclaiming BG would be way too risky for scum at that point, so the claim is likely true. Pretty much town.

mcmc: really unsure. Seems to have been posting about like I have which, I admit, is pretty useless to town but aaaalso makes it difficult to see him as scum. Neutral read, unfortunately.


An exploratory question that just occurred to me: If you were someone else looking at your behavior in this game, what about it would make you-as-someone-else vote for actual-you? For example, I have been mostly absent, which could easily be scum trying to fly under the radar.

Not hypothesizing any serious results from this but I am quite curious to see what people have to say, and I think it has the potential to provide some interesting insight.

14
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« on: December 17, 2013, 12:32:52 am »
Catching up on today now, but before I get any further: Not the vig.

15
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« on: December 16, 2013, 01:06:09 am »
Thanks, Walrus. Well, it has to be ash, then.
you seem like you really believed walrus here. Explain to me why a confirmed IC is so much better than someone who is virtually an IC by merit of his claim? The only IC experience I have had was Voltaire in toy story, and narrowing the lynch pool did not help us lynch anyone correctly there. I just don't see IC being as powerful as you make it out to be. Please illuminate me, as I apparently made an egregious error.

Because it's still possible he could be fakeclaiming? 1) Better for town to have someone whose reads they can absolutely trust to be, if not necessarily accurate, not deliberately misleading, and 2) Even if narrowing the lynch pool doesn't always result in success, it still, mathematically, gets us closer to a correct lynch.

16
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« on: December 16, 2013, 12:29:12 am »
Ugh so sorry I missed the lynch..... Got home and then family stuff and I felt guilty leaving them to mafia so there ya go. But school is out now so I'm here in the evenings to play for real now. Sorry again.

Reading now.

17
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« on: December 12, 2013, 09:23:45 pm »
Eek. Ahhh. What to think. I was pretty convinced ash had fake claimed as I was skimming it but now I'm just not sure.

18
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« on: December 12, 2013, 05:07:13 pm »
FINALS.

ARE.

DONE.

Aka now I can read. about to leave for the Hobbit premiere but I'll be reading slash posting (some) from my phone.

19
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« on: December 09, 2013, 11:29:22 pm »
Everyone saying Jimm vs Ash is so definitely town vs town is not a sentiment I share. I think it is equally plausible that the argument was scum/town, town/town, town/scum. I mean just that it fits for town and scum ash and jimm to have acted that way toward eachother.

So if one of Walrus or 2.7 is scum I think one of ash/jimm is likely to be scum.

Also I still think vote: walrus is probably scum.

You know, for awhile now I've been thinking that, when someone makes these statements (see bolded) but leaves out the "scum/scum" possibility, they are actually scum.  They know that both of the players arguing are town, and they would like the lynch to fall on one of the two, so they make these sorts of "well it could be scum/town, town/scum..." sorts of statements, but they forget to say "scum/scum" because they are scum and they don't want to push it.  Just a thought.

This is a really good and interesting point. Obviously, if those three combinations are possible, then the fourth is also possible while the person stating it is town. Not enough to make me throw out a vote yet, certainly, but it's interesting...

20
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« on: December 09, 2013, 11:02:26 pm »
I'm here for a REALLY QUICK read and post before I disappear back into the finals void....

21
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« on: December 08, 2013, 11:09:53 am »
Not getting the joke. I still stand by my original post.

I'm glad you clarified.... I thought you meant your original post at first as well, and I was about to point out how ridiculously scummy that seemed... actually I'm almost disappointed XD

It seems unlikely to me that we have a vig, although I suppose it's possible..... It seems foolish though, to assume that Jorbles' death was anything but an NK until we have some indication that it was otherwise.

Sorry for the lack of serious content, but finals week has officially started, so I will be only intermittently available until Wednesday. I likely won't be on again at all today (rl day, not game day).

22
Okay sure. But this isn't about Robz is it? This is about my reaction to it. Do you think it makes sense for me from a Town point of view to not give Robz the Town points?

Yes. But it makes more sense for you, as scum, to quickly shut down Robz (and manda, but you wouldn't know that) becoming an IC. You don't know how town is going to take his comment, so just steer the reaction the way you want it to go.

I cannot for the live of me find the other post that makes you scummy though, that is the one that has been hanging around in the back of my mind. It had to do with mcmc and I thought it was related to the D1 ash/Jimmmmm fight.

Do you mean my first post of Day 2, and mcmc saying that I've been called out for that before but he couldn't remember my alignment?

I believe he is referring to day 1, we got into a omgusish thing for I believe the same discussion about giving robz town cred. If I remember found robz towny(not just for that) you disagreed I voted you for you opinion on robz and volt and you claimed omgus. I believe jorbles got involved somehow as how.

hmmmm I'm gonna go reread that.

Fairly certain this didn't actually happen.

Aaaanyway.

Okay I need to post as I go since there has been a lot of stuff.

This
vote: ashersky

Tell me I didn't just call that.

Along with this
I think it's amazing that I was able to predict it so accurately. As soon as I saw the NK that's what my brain screamed at me. You know, I didn't know if I should post it to be honest, because I felt like it would just look weird and paranoid. But I am of the mind that it's better to post your thoughts even if they're kind of crazy.

And I'm glad I did. Not so crazy at all.

Seem really scummy to me. I mean first off I got what ashersky did instantly, but that second post by walrus feels like scum getting really excited about a knock out case and then weirdly covering/explaining why it happened. Throw in some typical scum tells such as "wasn't sure if I should post and not wanting to look paraniod" I think this is really scummy.

Next page;
 2.7 reacts towny confused/angry about joke suspicion(he is coming across as a smart player I don't think he would complain about the joke suspicion if he was scum)
Jimm reacts like Jimm, null tell to be honest
Ash reacts like ash, null tell as well.

Have not read past that will contuniue while posting.


I'm still trying to figure out how I feel about Walrus's posts here. On the one hand, mcmc's interpretation of it makes a lot of sense, BUT... I'm also inclined to think that he was almost TOO self-congratulatory in that post for it to be scum (or at least for it to be scum played well). It's so very "oh look what I did" that it seems too sloppy for scum.

23
Okay sure. But this isn't about Robz is it? This is about my reaction to it. Do you think it makes sense for me from a Town point of view to not give Robz the Town points?

Yes. But it makes more sense for you, as scum, to quickly shut down Robz (and manda, but you wouldn't know that) becoming an IC. You don't know how town is going to take his comment, so just steer the reaction the way you want it to go.

I cannot for the live of me find the other post that makes you scummy though, that is the one that has been hanging around in the back of my mind. It had to do with mcmc and I thought it was related to the D1 ash/Jimmmmm fight.

Do you mean my first post of Day 2, and mcmc saying that I've been called out for that before but he couldn't remember my alignment?

I believe he is referring to day 1, we got into a omgusish thing for I believe the same discussion about giving robz town cred. If I remember found robz towny(not just for that) you disagreed I voted you for you opinion on robz and volt and you claimed omgus. I believe jorbles got involved somehow as how.

hmmmm I'm gonna go reread that.

24
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« on: December 06, 2013, 01:01:36 pm »
That kind of confidence is just insane. What if you're wrong ? What if e/ash/Robz is the scum team or something ? You've just guaranteed scum you're not going to vote for them. In fact, with 7 town alive, if youre town and you're wrong, it means ALL the other town players must vote correctly to lynch scum. Are you that sure that manda didn't repeat a mistake from the QT, and are you that confident in your read of ash ? If you are, you're just delusional.

This. Generally scum's number one goal is to convince people they're Town. Taking people out of the lynch pool for "acting like their Town selves" is ridiculous. faust is an IC. e should be off the table for now in my opinion. Everyone is 100% fair game.

This is essentially what I was trying to say early on about too much meta-analysis not being helpful. People generally know how they normally act, and if they're scum, they're going to be extra careful to sound just like they do when they're town.

25
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day2)
« on: December 06, 2013, 12:53:07 pm »
What ?

We're not even 24 hours into day 2 and your lynch pool is 4 people ? That makes no sense. What warrants excluding ash, manda and Robz when 2 of these people have barely posted today ? Having town reads on them, why not, but starting POE on such little material (manda and Robz being wrong on setup, what's the reason for ash again ?) is downright stupid.

Waitwaitwait... when was I wrong on the setup?

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