T6: I prefer another Trading Post to Mystic. (again at T14)
T7: Getting three Coppers along with your Gold is just worse than buying Silver.
T24: Why Duchy instead of Province? There are three Provinces left, no?
Mainly that Cache-tastic T7, without that maybe you'd have only lost the Curse war 6-4. One Sea Hag to three Familiars, though, that's what's going to happen. By the end of the game you still have all 7 Curses left, so really Trading Posts would have been doing more for you than Mystics.
Your opponent won however since he was able to give you far more curses. This was due to better draws, specifically his salvager coming into play at the same time as your sea hag, meaning that his deck hardly deteriorated and was able to cycle the familiars quickly.
Opening Sea Hag means there a much better chance than usual that a Potion buyer won't hit his $3P.
Opening Sea Hag means there a much better chance than usual that a Potion buyer won't hit his $3P.
This is absolutely wrong. Everything in T3/T4 is the same if the card you skipped would have been in the bottom of the deck and no skipping occurs. T5/T6 are a little different, but unless you skip the Potion, no big difference. And if you are buying silvers or drawers or something with purchase power in T3/T4 (assuming no Familiar), its extremely bad luck to get no $3P in T5/T6, both in the no opponent sea hag and in the opponent's sea hag skipping the Potion. The minor differences in favor of Sea Hag skipping Potion are probably more than offset by the likelyhood of skipping an Estate or even a Copper and make it better for the Potion in T5/T6.
About the game, I think Beggar is a mistake and double Sea Hag with a Trading Post or two afterwards should win you the game (Mint only if you get an early lucky $5). I would guess double Sea Hag wins the Curse war here, but even if you tie and end up 1 dead card more, you will have better economy because you started on Silver/Gold earlier.
It is not absolutely wrong. If you draw your Sea Hag T3 than you have a chance of hitting a Copper, Potion or Silver of your opponent that could let them get $3P on T4. If you draw it T4 you could hit it if their Potion missed the reshuffle (or affect their next hand if it comes up early in the reshuffle).
It is not absolutely wrong. If you draw your Sea Hag T3 than you have a chance of hitting a Copper, Potion or Silver of your opponent that could let them get $3P on T4. If you draw it T4 you could hit it if their Potion missed the reshuffle (or affect their next hand if it comes up early in the reshuffle).
I understand, but you are not affecting the chance to hit $3P in T3/T4 at all. For that probability, it does not matter if you flip a card or not, you are still are going to see two exclusive sets of 5 out of your 11 or 12 cards in those two turns, and all possibilities have the same probability. Of course, with a fixed shuffle you are changing the outcome by playing Sea Hag, but the probabilities given by the fact you don't know the order of the cards are the same in both cases.
Probabilities of hitting $3P in T5/T6/T7 do change with the Sea Hag play, but I don't think they change enough for it to matter in the analysis.
It is not absolutely wrong. If you draw your Sea Hag T3 than you have a chance of hitting a Copper, Potion or Silver of your opponent that could let them get $3P on T4. If you draw it T4 you could hit it if their Potion missed the reshuffle (or affect their next hand if it comes up early in the reshuffle).
I understand, but you are not affecting the chance to hit $3P in T3/T4 at all. For that probability, it does not matter if you flip a card or not, you are still are going to see two exclusive sets of 5 out of your 11 or 12 cards in those two turns, and all possibilities have the same probability. Of course, with a fixed shuffle you are changing the outcome by playing Sea Hag, but the probabilities given by the fact you don't know the order of the cards are the same in both cases.
Probabilities of hitting $3P in T5/T6/T7 do change with the Sea Hag play, but I don't think they change enough for it to matter in the analysis.
The main thing is that on T4 they will have a four card hand instead of a five card hand because of the curse.
Oh, I didn't notice the Province trash. (It would be nice if the log viewer gave some more information, like contents of the trash, or piles nearly empty)