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Archive => Archive => Dominion: Guilds Previews => Topic started by: jonts26 on June 13, 2013, 11:28:38 am

Title: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: jonts26 on June 13, 2013, 11:28:38 am
Just as we did with Dark Ages, this is a place to make BOLD predictions. Keep your standard, run of the mill predictions out of here, man.

I'll start:

Stonemason: The overpay mechanic will make this one of the best (top 3-4) $2 cards in the game. 

Adviser: A top 10 $4 card.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: SirPeebles on June 13, 2013, 11:30:03 am
The best price to pay for Masterpiece will be $7.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Beyond Awesome on June 13, 2013, 11:42:07 am
Masterpiece will make BM strategies more viable.

Stonemason will for sure be a top $2 card just for the overpay mechanic alone.

Soothsayer will be stronger than Sea Hag and IGG but weaker than Witch, Mountebank, and Cultist.

Taxman will be a decent attack near the power level of Cutpusre and Militia.

Plaza will be a strong $4 village, better than Mining Village, but not as good as Wandering Minstrel or Worker's Village

Merchant Guild will fit in perfectly in the right engine, but won't be to exciting on most boards. It will be an average $5 most of the tiem

Candlestick Maker will be an average $2 card, but the fact you can keep your coins for later helps a lot.

Advisor will be an average $4 card. But, on some boards will really shine.

Journeyman is up there with Catacombs, maybe better for terminal draw.

Butcher will be a slightly above average card in most games, but in some engines will really kill. Actually, I think it can end up being pretty strong.

Herald will be a strong $4 card.

Baker will on the same power level as Market most of the time, but the fact it changes the game from the start in my opinion makes it pretty strong even if you don't end up buying a single one the entire game

Doctor will be a solid trasher, but not as good as Forager, Chapel, or Steward. Well, I am not entirely sure about that statement. The ability to trash your cards on turn 1 does seem pretty powerful.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Kirian on June 13, 2013, 11:42:23 am
Soothsayer will be considered a trap card because of the Council Room aspect.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: jonts26 on June 13, 2013, 11:48:57 am
Soothsayer will be considered a trap card because of the Council Room aspect.

Thanks for keeping it bold.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Kirian on June 13, 2013, 11:54:02 am
Soothsayer will be considered a trap card because of the Council Room aspect.

Thanks for keeping it bold.

Sure thing!
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: SirPeebles on June 13, 2013, 11:55:09 am
Herald will be a trap on most boards, due to 1) often missing, 2) forcing actions to be played in a suboptimal order, 3) the opportunity cost of not spending $4 on a card which does something in its own right.  Buying a Herald early will be considered a rookie mistake.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: LastFootnote on June 13, 2013, 11:56:32 am
Adviser: A top 10 $4 card.

I think you're in for a rude awakening here. Until your engine is really humming, Advisor is like handing your opponents an invitation to bypass all your best cards each shuffle. In fact, I predict that using a Stonemason to suddenly acquire a bunch of Advisors in the midgame will be a common play.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Schneau on June 13, 2013, 11:58:11 am
Adviser: A top 10 $4 card.

I'll be bold and say that Advisor will be a bottom half $4 card. I think it will be weak on too many boards, and will only shine in engines with heavy trashing.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Jimmmmm on June 13, 2013, 12:04:05 pm
Stonemason will for sure be a top $2 card just for the overpay mechanic alone.

If you're paying more than $2 for it, surely it can't be considered a $2 card. For the overpay to be any good you'll usually want to pay at least $5 for it, at which point it competes with Mountebank, Hunting Party and Wharf, or for it to be very good you'll want to pay $7 at which point it competes with King's Court. The only part of this card you can compare to Pearl Diver and Duchess is strictly the Action part.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Schneau on June 13, 2013, 12:06:38 pm
Candlestick Maker is going to be a power $2, at least in the top 10 and maybe top 5.

Candlestick Maker + Journeyman is going to be a powerful BM combo. Candlestick Maker gives you +Buy so you can get a bunch of them, which you can then skip when you play Journeyman. The coin tokens will smooth out buys, and the +Buy of Candlestick Maker will be helpful as well. I'm not sure how many Candlestick Makers you will want, but how many you have will determine whether you want to name Copper or CM late.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: massenburger on June 13, 2013, 12:09:19 pm
Advisor is like handing your opponents an invitation to bypass all your best cards each shuffle.

How does that make it any worse than Envoy, which is a pretty good card most of the time? In addition to it's Envoy-"esque" properties, you get +1 action, and the on-buy bonus.

EDIT: no on-buy bonus. was reading the summary wrong.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: brokoli on June 13, 2013, 12:10:08 pm
I agree that Stonemason will be a top 3 $2 card, and its on-play effect will be underrated : at the end of the game, it will be excellent for greening and 3 pile ending

Plaza will be a strong $4 village, better than Mining Village, but not as good as Wandering Minstrel or Worker's Village
I can't agree because now I think mining village is the best $4 village, and wandering + worker are overrated.
But otherwise, I think plaza will be very good too. Maybe the best.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: AJD on June 13, 2013, 12:11:35 pm
Advisor is like handing your opponents an invitation to bypass all your best cards each shuffle.

How does that make it any worse than Envoy, which is a pretty good card most of the time? In addition to it's Envoy-"esque" properties, you get +1 action, and the on-buy bonus.

Advisor doesn't have an on-buy bonus.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Schneau on June 13, 2013, 12:11:41 pm
Advisor is like handing your opponents an invitation to bypass all your best cards each shuffle.

How does that make it any worse than Envoy, which is a pretty good card most of the time? In addition to it's Envoy-"esque" properties, you get +1 action, and the on-buy bonus.

It sees 2 fewer cards, which means that unless your cards are all about the same "goodness", you will be more likely to discard a good card to keep 2 mediocre or bad cards.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Mic Qsenoch on June 13, 2013, 12:11:52 pm
I'm with jonts on Advisor, it looks strong to me. Early cycling makes a huge difference in deck speed. You can stockpile Advisors quickly using gainers or just buying them. Loves Warehouse/Cellar/Storehouse etc. Will be insane in any deck with the junk removed. It plays nicely with the other Lab variants as well. The weakness of the $5 Lab variants is usually the opportunity cost of better $5s, Advisor does not have that issue as much.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: liopoil on June 13, 2013, 12:12:03 pm
A coin token mega-turn will be the best strategy on many boards, particularly ones with candlestick maker.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: LastFootnote on June 13, 2013, 12:14:43 pm
Advisor is like handing your opponents an invitation to bypass all your best cards each shuffle.

How does that make it any worse than Envoy, which is a pretty good card most of the time? In addition to it's Envoy-"esque" properties, you get +1 action, and the on-buy bonus.

What on-buy bonus?

You lose more cards per card revealed with Advisor.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Witherweaver on June 13, 2013, 12:15:12 pm
It would be fun to see some massive Plaza, Counting House combo turn where you draw and discard your Coppers multiple times.  It would be one of those things that is probably not practical to set up, but still kind of neat. 

Edit: Nevermind, you can only discard one per Plaza play.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: massenburger on June 13, 2013, 12:17:36 pm
What on-buy bonus?

My bad. Was reading the summary wrong.

You lose more cards per card revealed with Advisor.

So, really Advisor trades +2 cards for +1 action, when you compare it with Envoy. However, when you look deeper, I guess it would get worse, because in order to get up to that +4 card total that Envoy gives you, your opponent discards 2 of your cards, instead of just one. However, you're left with an extra action at the end of it, so you have 1 less card you see in your deck, but one extra action. I don't know what to think!
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: LastFootnote on June 13, 2013, 12:17:51 pm
I predict Plaza will be a great combo with Library/Watchtower. Maybe not as great as Fishing Village, but still very good.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Witherweaver on June 13, 2013, 12:22:32 pm
I predict Plaza will be a great combo with Library/Watchtower. Maybe not as great as Fishing Village, but still very good.

Couldn't it be better in some situations?  Like if you're chaining them?  Discard 3 coin, get 3 tokens, draw to 7 cards, discard, draw, etc.  With a couple other supporters you could draw your entire deck and still end up with all the coins in your hand in the end.  For a huge amount of money.

Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Just a Rube on June 13, 2013, 12:23:03 pm
Advisor is like handing your opponents an invitation to bypass all your best cards each shuffle.

How does that make it any worse than Envoy, which is a pretty good card most of the time? In addition to it's Envoy-"esque" properties, you get +1 action, and the on-buy bonus.
I expect it will play very differently from envoy. The +action makes you want to play a bunch of advisors per turn, but each time you play an advisor, you're skipping the best of the 3 cards he reveals. Envoy is less frequently played multiple times a turn, and even when it is, you're only skipping the best card out of 5. So those are two reasons why advisor is more likely to skip key cards.

Envoy lends itself to homogeneous decks (if I reveal 5 silver, I guarantee myself $8 that turn). But if I reveal 3 silver with advisor, not only do I limit myself to $4 (not bad, but obviously worse), I can't make use of my +action unless I have others in my hand. On the other hand, if I reveal a bunch of actions with Envoy, my opponent's decision will depend on whether I have actions left or not, and his guess of whether or not the actions in my hand are better than the ones I would draw. If advisor is played more often, then he has better information about what's in my hand, for him to make that decision.

One advantage advisor does have over envoy? I have a much better chance of causing my opponent to go insane from trying to out-think me.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: shMerker on June 13, 2013, 12:25:52 pm
What on-buy bonus?

My bad. Was reading the summary wrong.

You lose more cards per card revealed with Advisor.

So, really Advisor trades +2 cards for +1 action, when you compare it with Envoy. However, when you look deeper, I guess it would get worse, because in order to get up to that +4 card total that Envoy gives you, your opponent discards 2 of your cards, instead of just one. However, you're left with an extra action at the end of it, so you have 1 less card you see in your deck, but one extra action. I don't know what to think!

Advisor is actually a Scout that also sucks up your Shelters, Ruins, and Curses.

Edit: Reformatted it to be a bold prediction.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Schneau on June 13, 2013, 12:26:44 pm
I predict Plaza will be a great combo with Library/Watchtower. Maybe not as great as Fishing Village, but still very good.

Couldn't it be better in some situations?  Like if you're chaining them?  Discard 3 coin, get 3 tokens, draw to 7 cards, discard, draw, etc.  With a couple other supporters you could draw your entire deck and still end up with all the coins in your hand in the end.  For a huge amount of money.

You can only discard 1 Treasure card per play of Plaza.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: massenburger on June 13, 2013, 12:26:52 pm
I expect it will play very differently from envoy.

I started to realize that as I was typing. The non-terminal aspect does make it a very different card from Envoy.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Witherweaver on June 13, 2013, 12:34:11 pm
I predict Plaza will be a great combo with Library/Watchtower. Maybe not as great as Fishing Village, but still very good.

Couldn't it be better in some situations?  Like if you're chaining them?  Discard 3 coin, get 3 tokens, draw to 7 cards, discard, draw, etc.  With a couple other supporters you could draw your entire deck and still end up with all the coins in your hand in the end.  For a huge amount of money.

You can only discard 1 Treasure card per play of Plaza.

Oh, I suppose that is the case. 
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Schlippy on June 13, 2013, 12:36:03 pm
1. Advisor will be the most underestimated <$5 by far for a while. More underestimated than Oracle was, more underestimated that Rats still are, and even more underestimated that JoaT was.

2. Aside from making you able to open with $5 no matter what, Bakers set up rule will have far less impact on the game than people think. On average keeping your coin for later will be more common than using it on the starting turns. (Big exceptions: Wharf, $5 Cursers, Governor, Mint, Minion and Rebuild)

3. Plaza will be in the top 3 Villages

4. Stonemason will be in the top 2 $2 cards

5. Candlestick maker will be in the top 3 $2 cards

6. Merchant Guild will be a Powerhouse $5 ala' Wharf. A card that does exceptionally well in Engines, BM and Slogs.

7. Besides Feodum and BM, Master Piece will mainly shine in TFB engines, and will be compared to Rats because of this.

8. Taxman is actually stronger than Sea Hag as an opening buy.

9. Butcher will be played as a single card strategy similar to Minion on quite a few boards.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: shMerker on June 13, 2013, 12:37:24 pm
I predict Plaza will be a great combo with Library/Watchtower. Maybe not as great as Fishing Village, but still very good.

Couldn't it be better in some situations?  Like if you're chaining them?  Discard 3 coin, get 3 tokens, draw to 7 cards, discard, draw, etc.  With a couple other supporters you could draw your entire deck and still end up with all the coins in your hand in the end.  For a huge amount of money.

You can only discard 1 Treasure card per play of Plaza.

Oh, I suppose that is the case.

Yeah but if you chain a few together it's easy enough to get your handsize down. The advantage over Fishing Village or Festival is that you get to reduce your handsize while searching for cards. So this plays more like Inn or Hamlet in that regard.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: jonts26 on June 13, 2013, 12:39:10 pm
Soothsayer will be considered a trap card because of the Council Room aspect.

Thanks for keeping it bold.

Sure thing!

I like how me pointing out your joke gets more upvotes than your joke itself.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Watno on June 13, 2013, 12:39:41 pm
CC will empty the supply on turn 3.
Goko won't manage to implement Guilds for at least a week.
Stonemason will be only bought for the the overpayment effect.
Crazy stuff will happen with Herald
Baker won't be used much in engines.
A coin token mega turn strategy will be only good very rarely
Soothsayer is awesome for slogs.
Taxman will be rather weak.
Masterpiece will be really awesome for slogs, and maybe decent in Big Money.
Merchant Guild will mostly be ignored.

Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: jonts26 on June 13, 2013, 12:41:25 pm
CC will empty the supply on turn 3.
Goko won't manage to implement Guilds for at least a week.


This isn't the obvious predictions thread.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Kirian on June 13, 2013, 12:43:14 pm
Masterpiece will be really awesome for slogs, and maybe decent in Big Money.[/b]

I think it'll be more than decent in BM.  Your deck is turning green and you hit $6.  Would you rather have a single Gold, or 3 Silvers and a Copper?  I think the latter.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: eHalcyon on June 13, 2013, 12:58:03 pm
Stonemason -- awesome combo with cost reduction, especially Quarry.

Advisor -- often a trap, as the deck needs to be built around it -- either valuing large hand sizes over quality hands (e.g. with Cellar) or else just having so much good stuff that it doesn't matter what gets discarded.

Merchant Guild -- high potential, but needs a lot of support (cost reduction, lots of good cheap cards to pick up, +action and +cards to play multiple MGs at the same time, Watchtower to trash extra Copper buys).  Thus, also often a trap.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: greatexpectations on June 13, 2013, 01:07:22 pm
Adviser: A top 10 $4 card.

I think you're in for a rude awakening here. Until your engine is really humming, Advisor is like handing your opponents an invitation to bypass all your best cards each shuffle. In fact, I predict that using a Stonemason to suddenly acquire a bunch of Advisors in the midgame will be a common play.

jonts26 was clearly speculating about a new promo card called adviser and not the card advisor from guilds.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Axxle on June 13, 2013, 02:02:00 pm
One of the predictions in the Obvious Predictions thread will be wrong.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: achmed_sender on June 13, 2013, 02:12:35 pm
One of the predictions in the Obvious Predictions thread will be wrong.

With even more hitting chance: Either Axxle's prediction or at least another prediction will be wrong.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: DG on June 13, 2013, 02:18:24 pm
You will rarely want exactly one merchant's guild.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: theory on June 13, 2013, 02:18:37 pm
Adviser: A top 10 $4 card.

I think you're in for a rude awakening here. Until your engine is really humming, Advisor is like handing your opponents an invitation to bypass all your best cards each shuffle. In fact, I predict that using a Stonemason to suddenly acquire a bunch of Advisors in the midgame will be a common play.

jonts26 was clearly speculating about a new promo card called adviser and not the card advisor from guilds.

Míne

$5

If you accidentally bought this thinking it was a Mine, trash your draw deck.  Otherwise, +$2.

(Not strictly worse than Silver ... so long as you are capable of lying about your state of mind.)
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: LastFootnote on June 13, 2013, 03:19:38 pm
Stonemason's overpay ability will be awesome in Alchemy-heavy games.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: eHalcyon on June 13, 2013, 03:29:40 pm
Stonemason's overpay ability will be awesome in Alchemy-heavy games.

Are you suggesting to overpay by $P?  Is that even allowed?

Edit:, ah, I see that you can...
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: shMerker on June 13, 2013, 03:45:01 pm
Yeah Watno got confirmation from BGG and posted about it in other threads.

http://boardgamegeek.com/thread/991269/can-you-overpay-by-s0-or-potion
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Titandrake on June 13, 2013, 04:05:21 pm
Candlestick Maker will be a power card.

Stonemason is only good because of the overpay, but will be better than Candlestick Maker because of it.

Doctor will be almost but not quite on par with Steward.

Masterpiece won't be worth it unless the kingdom is very weak, or Feodum is out.

Advisor will be a mid-power $4 card. Having +1 Action will make the choice more difficult than for Envoy, but searching through 3 cards counterbalances that.

Herald is fantastic and will primarily be bought for $5 to repeatedly topdeck key cards (like Cursers.)

Plaza will be decent, and is around Worker's Village power level.

Taxman will look like a trap, then turn out to be very strong in niche conditions, and will be strong in those conditions only when many copies are bought. Like Noble Brigand.

Baker is solid, not a power $5 but certainly above average.

Butcher will be played primarily for +2 Coin tokens, the trashing will be used sparingly.

Journeyman-Big Money will be a top-tier BM enabler (almost on par with Courtyard and Jack, below Wharf)

Merchant Guild is only going to be good when it's possible to get multiple copies out, otherwise it's too slow and weak.

Soothsayer will be better than Witch, because unlike all the other Cursers it gets better once the Curses are out.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: SirPeebles on June 13, 2013, 04:17:10 pm
Soothsayer will be better than Witch, because unlike all the other Cursers it gets better once the Curses are out.

!

Nice observation!
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: eHalcyon on June 13, 2013, 04:21:15 pm
Soothsayer will be better than Witch, because unlike all the other Cursers it gets better once the Curses are out.

!

Nice observation!

Open Witch.  When Curses run out, Butcher Witch into Soothsayer.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Kirian on June 13, 2013, 04:37:48 pm
No one will ever come up with a band name better than "Dr. Teeth and the Electric Mayhem."
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: WanderingWinder on June 13, 2013, 04:40:09 pm
No one will ever come up with a band name better than "Dr. Teeth and the Electric Mayhem."
Salacious Crumb.
Also, Eccentric Flint.

I could go on.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Axxle on June 13, 2013, 04:49:24 pm
No one will ever come up with a band name better than "Dr. Teeth and the Electric Mayhem."
Salacious Crumb.
Also, Eccentric Flint.

I could go on.
Cosmic Celestial Chameleon and the Blue Dogs.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Axxle on June 13, 2013, 04:54:34 pm
More on topic:

Baker will be bought less often than Treasury.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: StrongRhino on June 13, 2013, 04:55:51 pm
No one will ever come up with a band name better than "Dr. Teeth and the Electric Mayhem."
Salacious Crumb.
Also, Eccentric Flint.

I could go on.
Celestial Chameleon and the Blue Dogs.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: WanderingWinder on June 13, 2013, 05:02:27 pm
Slog will be the deck type most helped by this VP-card-less expansion
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: LastFootnote on June 13, 2013, 05:13:00 pm
No one will ever come up with a band name better than "Dr. Teeth and the Electric Mayhem."
Salacious Crumb.

I wouldn't count bands that are just named after Star Wars characters.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: shMerker on June 13, 2013, 05:14:08 pm
I had to look that up to be sure you weren't joking.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Axxle on June 13, 2013, 05:17:19 pm
No one will ever come up with a band name better than "Dr. Teeth and the Electric Mayhem."
Salacious Crumb.
Also, Eccentric Flint.

I could go on.
Celestial Chameleon and the Blue Dogs.
Too much Cosmic Encounter on the brain.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Hockey Mask on June 13, 2013, 05:19:57 pm
I will begin jonesing for another Dominion expansion in mere seconds.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Hockey Mask on June 13, 2013, 05:20:12 pm
I was right.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Axxle on June 13, 2013, 05:20:54 pm
I will begin jonesing for another Dominion expansion in mere seconds.
Wrong thread: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=8439.msg255653;topicseen#new
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Titandrake on June 13, 2013, 07:04:20 pm
Merchant Guild is only going to be good when it's possible to get multiple copies out, otherwise it's too slow and weak.

I'm going to slightly modify this.

Merchant Guild is the new Goons, excepting that the first Merchant Guild is much worse than the first Goons.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Schneau on June 13, 2013, 07:15:13 pm
Bold and probably wrong: Butcher will be the best $5 card in Guilds.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Fuu on June 13, 2013, 11:19:50 pm
My guess is that Advisor is one of the best nonterminal $4s. Also, it is interesting that with Envoy, if your opponent is out of actions it is much easier to choose which card for your opponent to discard - typically let them keep dead actions and discard their best treasure - with Advisor, this is not the case - your opponent always has an action to spare, so the choice might not be so easy.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: NoMoreFun on June 13, 2013, 11:45:10 pm
Opening Stonemason/Stonemason/Stonemason/Stonemason/Stonemason/Stonemason in Baker games will be the Scout of Openings.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: NoMoreFun on June 13, 2013, 11:47:49 pm
Stonemason/Treasure Map/Treasure Map/Haven for best possible opening.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: kurraga on June 14, 2013, 12:19:03 am
Soothsayer will often be a lot stonger without any curses left in the suply.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Powerman on June 14, 2013, 12:37:16 am
-Masterpiece will be one of the worst $3 cards (better than say Woodcutter, but worse than say Fortune Teller)
-Taxman will be weaker than it looks.  Definitely worse than Militia.
-Merchant Guild will only be viable on a few boards, but it will dominate ~10% of games
-Overpay, nor coin tokens, will be super important game mechanics.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: eHalcyon on June 14, 2013, 12:55:35 am
-Overpay, nor coin tokens, will be super important game mechanics.

Are you saying they will be, or won't be?  You wrote "nor" but didn't start the sentence with "neither"...
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: kn1tt3r on June 14, 2013, 01:17:49 am
No one will ever come up with a band name better than "Dr. Teeth and the Electric Mayhem."
Salacious Crumb.
Also, Eccentric Flint.

I could go on.
Celestial Chameleon and the Blue Dogs.

I once met a small band who named themselves "Special Guest". To get tons of gigs obviously.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: eHalcyon on June 14, 2013, 01:41:46 am
No one will ever come up with a band name better than "Dr. Teeth and the Electric Mayhem."
Salacious Crumb.
Also, Eccentric Flint.

I could go on.
Celestial Chameleon and the Blue Dogs.

I once met a small band who named themselves "Special Guest". To get tons of gigs obviously.

(http://www.smbc-comics.com/comics/20130611.png) (http://www.smbc-comics.com/index.php?db=comics&id=3006)
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Schneau on June 14, 2013, 09:40:35 am
Taxman will be at its best in Treasureful engines vs. BM.

Engines don't care as much if they trash a Treasure from hand to put a better one on top of their deck, since they can often draw it that turn, or don't need the treasure anyway. Naming Copper early and Silver (or Gold) mid-to-late can really hurt BM, which needs those Treasures. Here's an example game (http://dom.retrobox.eu/?/20130614/log.505c626fa2e6c78ad2ed5aa6.1371215700468.txt).
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Powerman on June 14, 2013, 10:15:12 am
-Overpay, nor coin tokens, will be super important game mechanics.

Are you saying they will be, or won't be?  You wrote "nor" but didn't start the sentence with "neither"...

*Neither* :P
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Watno on June 14, 2013, 10:21:31 am
Slog will be the deck type most helped by this VP-card-less expansion
That fits my experience until this point.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Stealth Tomato on June 14, 2013, 12:56:09 pm
No one will ever come up with a band name better than "Dr. Teeth and the Electric Mayhem."
Salacious Crumb.
Also, Eccentric Flint.

I could go on.

Also basically anything Shawn Spencer says.

Delicious Flavor
Trouble at the Kazakhstan Border
Guys Dressed as Toast

e: adding bold predictions (disclaimer: I have played one game each with Taxman and Butcher)
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: brokoli on June 14, 2013, 01:19:56 pm
...
Funny that I disagree about everything you said, except the latter two.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: eHalcyon on June 14, 2013, 01:44:33 pm
People will eventually realize that Treasure Maps are still not that great.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: achmed_sender on June 14, 2013, 02:00:34 pm
People will eventually realize that Guilds cannot be gamechanging, because in average only every second game will include a guilds card
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: LastFootnote on June 14, 2013, 02:17:59 pm
People will eventually realize that Guilds cannot be gamechanging, because in average only every second game will include a guilds card

People will eventually realize that full random is not the only legitimate way to play Dominion, although probably not for at least another year.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: eHalcyon on June 14, 2013, 02:31:06 pm
People will eventually realize that Guilds cannot be gamechanging, because in average only every second game will include a guilds card

People will eventually realize that full random is not the only legitimate way to play Dominion, although probably not for at least another year.

Technically, even a single new card is game changing (for small enough values of change).
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: qmech on June 14, 2013, 02:55:42 pm
Candlestick Maker will be an elite engine enabler.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Awaclus on June 14, 2013, 03:48:26 pm
Merchant Guild is the best $5 in Guilds.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Stealth Tomato on June 14, 2013, 08:31:34 pm
First thing I've noticed: Coin tokens appear to be far, far more powerful than anybody is giving them credit for. I'm surprised there appear to be no predictions to this effect.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: qmech on June 15, 2013, 04:32:25 am
First thing I've noticed: Coin tokens appear to be far, far more powerful than anybody is giving them credit for. I'm surprised there appear to be no predictions to this effect.

That seems to be implicit in many of the predictions in this thread.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: SirPeebles on June 15, 2013, 01:28:46 pm
Masterpiece is a better Feodum enabler than Trader.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: brokoli on June 15, 2013, 01:52:16 pm
Masterpiece is a better Feodum enabler than Trader.
I can believe that easily. I always thought trader was a massive overrated card as a feodum enabler. The big problem is that you have to trash a card in your hand so it decrease often your money sum. Of course trader-feodum is dominant very often, but not the only good feodum enabler.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Stealth Tomato on June 15, 2013, 03:04:47 pm
Retrospective part 1:

Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: markusin on June 16, 2013, 08:23:24 pm
Stonemason will be bought in almost every game it appears in.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Archetype on June 16, 2013, 08:39:36 pm
Plaza's treasure discarding ability will go unused in the majority of the games it appears in.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Mic Qsenoch on June 16, 2013, 08:45:40 pm
Plaza's treasure discarding ability will go unused in the majority of the games it appears in.

This is ridiculous. Do you mean unused in the sense that nobody uses it at all? Not even once? The majority of the time?
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Archetype on June 16, 2013, 08:52:09 pm
Plaza's treasure discarding ability will go unused in the majority of the games it appears in.

This is ridiculous. Do you mean unused in the sense that nobody uses it at all? Not even once? The majority of the time?
I mean people will just use it as a normal village the majority of the time.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: SirPeebles on June 16, 2013, 09:04:32 pm
I think most Village+ cards are purchased primarily for the Village, but surely most people will discard at least Coppers, and maybe Potions, Loans, Talismans, Quarries, Masterpieces, Counterfeits, Spoils, and Contrabands.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: markusin on June 16, 2013, 09:11:52 pm
Plaza's will be a strong village in games with no +buy

And don't be all like "but Worker's village gives you +buy".
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: mail-mi on June 16, 2013, 09:14:22 pm
Plaza's will be a strong village in games with no +buy

And don't be all like "but Worker's village gives you +buy".
But Worker's village gives you +buy!
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: sudgy on June 17, 2013, 02:03:56 am
Plaza's will be a strong village in games with no +buy

And don't be all like "but Worker's village gives you +buy".
But Worker's village gives you +buy!

People will say things they were explicitly told not to say.

Well, now that I've got one right, I'll be going now...
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: RTT on June 17, 2013, 08:09:34 am
I always use the discart of Plaza for Copper if i dont want to use the copper otherwise ( Trashing, Coppersmith, Bank)

Maybe i can save a coin.

on Topic Opening Masterpiece Herald at 3$ 4$ Start is as strong as Copper nothing.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Warfreak2 on June 17, 2013, 09:23:28 am
Herald is worse than nothing in a big money deck, because you reveal a card from your next hand to your opponent, which could help them decide whether to break PPR.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: achmed_sender on June 17, 2013, 11:27:07 am
In lategame, it will be often a difficult decision whether or not playing your Soothsayer (assumed the curses aren't emptied)
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: GendoIkari on June 17, 2013, 11:50:54 am
In lategame, it will be often a difficult decision whether or not playing your Soothsayer (assumed the curses aren't emptied)

Why assuming the curses aren't emptied? It would be a difficult decision either way I'd think.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Witherweaver on June 17, 2013, 11:53:46 am
In lategame, it will be often a difficult decision whether or not playing your Soothsayer (assumed the curses aren't emptied)

Why assuming the curses aren't emptied? It would be a difficult decision either way I'd think.

They only draw a card if they gained a curse.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Beyond Awesome on June 17, 2013, 12:02:04 pm
Soothsayer is good. However, there was one game where it was late game, and I did not play it because I thought a reshuffle might not come out and curses did not run out. So, it does happen every now and then, but rarely
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: PitzerMike on June 18, 2013, 09:34:28 am
No one will ever come up with a band name better than "Dr. Teeth and the Electric Mayhem."
Salacious Crumb.
Also, Eccentric Flint.

I could go on.
Celestial Chameleon and the Blue Dogs.

I once met a small band who named themselves "Special Guest". To get tons of gigs obviously.

Well I've seen "TBA" so many times now, I know all their songs.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: GendoIkari on June 19, 2013, 02:55:17 pm
In lategame, it will be often a difficult decision whether or not playing your Soothsayer (assumed the curses aren't emptied)

Why assuming the curses aren't emptied? It would be a difficult decision either way I'd think.

They only draw a card if they gained a curse.

Yeah, I suddenly remembered this today, and came back here to see if anyone had pointed out my mistake. Oops.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Stealth Tomato on July 24, 2013, 11:36:02 am
Retrospective part 2:

Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: SCSN on July 24, 2013, 12:20:32 pm
  • Doctor will lead to the most mistakes in opening, particularly with Baker in the Kingdom.
    Nope. People learned not to open Doctor. Good job people.

Huh? I think Doctor is rarely worth getting, but if you want to get it at all (when you want to build an engine and it's the only available trasher), you should open with it.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Polk5440 on July 24, 2013, 02:52:20 pm
I'm terrible at predicting. But for fun, here it goes. I'll avoid the formatting and let my outlandish predictions stand boldly on their own:

Guilds will not be the last official Dominion expansion.

Big Money strategies are optimal more often in full random than if Dominion had stopped with Dark Ages.

Masterpiece and Baker will be known as great big money enablers. Tactician-Masterpiece, who needs Bank on $7?, opening Gold, and Treasure Map-Treasure Map from the fourth seat for the win!
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: ednever on July 25, 2013, 01:19:06 pm
Retrospective part 2:

  • Taxman will be relatively bad, particularly in the endgame. In the early game, it compares unfavorably to Cutpurse. In the endgame, it compares unfavorably to Mandarin. The latter is particularly damning.
    I had this backwards. Taxman is bad in the early game and somewhat better in the endgame. It's still relatively bad.
  • Butcher will be overrated by nearly every player, and a questionable buy in Guilds-light Kingdoms.
    It's good but not great; the biggest surprise here is that people don't seem to be overrating it.
  • Stonemason will be the highest-skill card in the set, lending itself to non-obvious shenanigans that synergize the on-buy and on-play effects.
    Not really. It leads to some really neat stuff, but it doesn't take a dramatically skilled player to do most of the neat stuff.
  • Advisor will be underrated as people compare it to Scout and Envoy, then overrated as people compare it to Lab, then correctly rated as people realize how much better Silver and Warehouse are than Advisor in the early game.
    My mistake here was thinking people would care that much about Advisor.
  • Plaza will not be very good except in Watchtower/Library decks. It will not be powerful enough to command its price point in fully-drawing engines. It will be one of the weakest Villages.
    I originally swung completely the other way [it's one of the best]. I think it comes out as very average--often not worth the opportunity cost, but the flexibility it provides is useful. It compares favorably to Oasis, and its relative power among Villages probably sits around Farming Village.
  • Except in sets with a ton of surplus actions, Merchant Guild will be about even with Silver, and not worth buying when good terminals are in the Kingdom.
    Yup. Merchant Guild is bad. People still seem to be enamored with its ability to enable crazy things on occasion--but it's extremely rare for this to happen, and setting it up takes way too long. In general, I'd rather use Candlestick Makers, which generate coin tokens nearly as fast, are easier to spam, and don't require Villages.
  • Doctor will lead to the most mistakes in opening, particularly with Baker in the Kingdom.
    Nope. People learned not to open Doctor. Good job people.
  • Almost nobody will buy Masterpiece outside slogs, and in those they will buy it too late. It will be one of the largest differentiators between intermediate and advanced players.
    I think I was right about this. It only seems to get bought in crazy Feodum decks and the like.

Interesting.
What am I missing with Doctor?

Isn't it a good open if you want to trash? Especially if you open 4/3?

I've done it a couple of times and it seemed to work. You can trash your initial coppers pretty easily. And if you track your deck right, estates too.

I would think Dr gets a lot worse if you buy it later: a lot harder to connect with those coppers and estates.

Ed
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Awaclus on July 25, 2013, 01:47:36 pm
Interesting.
What am I missing with Doctor?

Isn't it a good open if you want to trash? Especially if you open 4/3?

I've done it a couple of times and it seemed to work. You can trash your initial coppers pretty easily. And if you track your deck right, estates too.

I would think Dr gets a lot worse if you buy it later: a lot harder to connect with those coppers and estates.

Ed
I agree. A $4 Doctor can be very good when there isn't a strong $4 opener on the board. The chances of hitting an Estate are decent (2/5 or 1/3, depending on your first shuffle) and it's just awesome if you manage to do it, and hitting a Copper isn't bad either so it's sometimes worth the try. Not always, though.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: DG on July 25, 2013, 02:39:07 pm
I think you're still underestimating masterpiece. It is quite a strong kingdom treasure. Nobody really seems to appreciate kingdom treasures though.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: Warfreak2 on July 25, 2013, 02:46:46 pm
I think Doctor is one of the best trashers, except when it fails, it fails hard: you draw it on turn 5, name whatever's most likely, and still hit nothing. After that happens, it's pretty much a worse Lookout.

I like Masterpiece a lot.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: LastFootnote on July 28, 2013, 12:38:38 am
Nobody really seems to appreciate kingdom treasures though.

I know what you mean. Perhaps it's because they're not engine components? I'm a big fan of Treasure Kingdom cards in general.
Title: Re: Bold Predictions: Guilds Edition
Post by: mail-mi on July 28, 2013, 12:39:31 am
Adviser: A top 10 $4 card.
lol