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Meta => Feedback => Council Room Feedback => Topic started by: rrenaud on February 04, 2013, 06:48:06 pm

Title: Why aren't there more posts that use supply_win to argue about balance?
Post by: rrenaud on February 04, 2013, 06:48:06 pm
Why aren't there more posts that use supply_win to make data based arguments about the quality of card combos?

This post is, IMHO, wonderful.  http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3619.msg71075#msg71075

Is it that supply_win interface is too confusing?  Do people just value their own experience/intuition over data?  Is the data ruined by noobs (eg, if you could get supply_win data only for players > level 35, would that be good?)?  Is there something else going on?
Title: Re: Why aren't there more posts that use supply_win to argue about balance?
Post by: WanderingWinder on February 04, 2013, 08:46:55 pm
Let me put it this way: in a matchup of all the data you can accumulate vs Stef, I'll take Stef. At pretty big odds. It's not SO much about weak players diluting the game pool (though that is potentially a big big problem), but more 'depends on the board'.

Having said that, I think this is one of the neater tools on CR.
Title: Re: Why aren't there more posts that use supply_win to argue about balance?
Post by: DG on February 04, 2013, 09:18:51 pm
Personally I can check some concepts out with the simulator and that can be better at answering specific questions. I have found that query useful in the past but I don't think the output format is easy to use as evidence. I don't find the query interface easy either but I guess other people would do.
Title: Re: Why aren't there more posts that use supply_win to argue about balance?
Post by: philosophyguy on February 05, 2013, 12:18:35 am
The noob problem is real, but there's also the problem of assuming the community actually knows about the combo. Philosopher's Stone/Herbalist is a real thing but it's one of the lesser-known combos, and so the supply_win only shows Phil Stone picking up 1.97 quality points when paired with Herbalist.

What this means is that, if you think you've discovered a new combo, it won't be reflected in the supply stats precisely because people don't know about it and so it will be left unplayed.

Filtering to level 35+ would help, but I don't think it solves the problem.
Title: Re: Why aren't there more posts that use supply_win to argue about balance?
Post by: Beyond Awesome on February 05, 2013, 01:34:57 pm
Quote from: philosophyguy on February 05, 2013, 12:18:35 am
The noob problem is real, but there's also the problem of assuming the community actually knows about the combo. Philosopher's Stone/Herbalist is a real thing but it's one of the lesser-known combos, and so the supply_win only shows Phil Stone picking up 1.97 quality points when paired with Herbalist.

What this means is that, if you think you've discovered a new combo, it won't be reflected in the supply stats precisely because people don't know about it and so it will be left unplayed.

Filtering to level 35+ would help, but I don't think it solves the problem.

I do think filtering based on level is a good idea.
Title: Re: Why aren't there more posts that use supply_win to argue about balance?
Post by: theory on February 05, 2013, 04:06:31 pm
There are some strange results that are hard to explain.  For example, Venture works super well when Saboteur is present?  Why?  Is that because Saboteur makes everything look good because it is so crappy?
Title: Re: Why aren't there more posts that use supply_win to argue about balance?
Post by: Drab Emordnilap on February 05, 2013, 04:10:19 pm
Quote from: theory on February 05, 2013, 04:06:31 pm
There are some strange results that are hard to explain.  For example, Venture works super well when Saboteur is present?  Why?  Is that because Saboteur makes everything look good because it is so crappy?

Maybe because it's kind of like a Silver that when it gets hit by Saboteur can be downgraded into a Silver?
Title: Re: Why aren't there more posts that use supply_win to argue about balance?
Post by: DG on February 05, 2013, 07:09:41 pm
Quote
For example, Venture works super well when Saboteur is present?  Why?

Saboteurs perform worst against province-buying treasure decks. Alternative strategies such as engines or even dukes/fairgrounds can suffer under saboteur. If you look at stats for saboteur with treasure it all makes sense, except the mandarin. There could also be some marginal issues with deck cycling and replacing trashed treasures.

SaboteurIll-Gotten Gains-4.61
SaboteurHoard-1.32
SaboteurVenture-0.96
SaboteurFool's Gold-0.83
SaboteurBank-0.75
SaboteurStash-0.67
SaboteurRoyal Seal-0.41
SaboteurContraband-0.19
SaboteurTalisman-0.1
SaboteurLoan-0.08
Saboteur
SaboteurHarem0.02
SaboteurCache0.25
SaboteurHorn of Plenty0.31
SaboteurPlatinum0.36
SaboteurMandarin0.41
SaboteurPhilosopher's Stone0.58
SaboteurQuarry0.69
SaboteurPotion1.26