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Archive => Archive => Dominion: Dark Ages Previews => Topic started by: WanderingWinder on August 20, 2012, 10:16:57 am

Title: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: WanderingWinder on August 20, 2012, 10:16:57 am
Well, yeah, we already have the make-fools-of-ourselves card analysis game. But this thread is particularly for the cards you think other people will mis-evaluate. Here is your chance to be the first to point out the IGG rush, or that JoaT is a really good card, actually, or that Jester really isn't all that hot, or whatever, but for the Dark Ages cards. And let me tell you, I have some bold predictions to make here.

Count - Well, as I've already said, I think this card is probably better, on the whole, than Mandarin, but not very good, and a below-average 5-cost. Great for Duke and Silk Road, pretty good for gardens, decent if you can spike one on turn 1-2, pretty mediocre otherwise.

Rebuild - I think this will be one of the most powerful cards in the set. Think about for a second, that it takes basically 6 plays of this card to get your starting estates into provinces (and it's non-terminal!). And then probably you can buy duchies relatively easily and turn them into provinces fairly quick. I mean, 2-3 of these, then buy only green will be a pretty good BM strategy, on the speed order of JoaT. Yep, I'm going to make that claim. Now, you can run the risk of drawing these with too much green (you need it to be in the discard pile). But this also works really well with decently good non-drawing terminals at the sub-$5 level (monument, militia, maybe swindler). And it's going to be very nice with sifters like warehouse. And it's really resilient to just about every kind of attack. Finally, it's a nice anti-engine card, because you burn through VP as you go, lowering the 50% of VP game-win threshhold fairly nicely.

Beggar - I mean, okay, the card is pretty terrible. But I bet it helps big money okay, actually. Combos with counting house. And great with alternate VP. Hmm, maybe that's not so bold.

Hermit - See, I think this will be hardly worse than JoaT, but more conducive to many different strategies. This can certainly be a darling for engines where you have a cheap enough engine component. Or you can play it like Jack. Really strong, though, I expect - being able to trash so targetedly will be very nice.

Hunting Grounds - at 6, I don't actually expect that this is very good.

Ironmonger - Already talked about this too, and I think this card compares pretty favorably to tournament, actually, and if we are to believe chwhite, that is the best 4-cost card. I would be pretty darn shocked if this isn't a top-6 4-cost, and wouldn't be surprised at all if it's even better than that.

Squire - I firmly expect that this will be the 2nd-best 2-cost card, after chapel. Oftentimes, you'd rather have courtyard or fool's gold, and sometimes if there's terrible attacks, lighthouse, but I really expect this to be better than hamlet.

Urchin - Well, really this is about Mercenary, which I expect to be not that great at all. I think massing urchins early will be terrible. But this will be fine in engines, where silver is no longer important, and the attack, while it doesn't do much, can be sorta nice.

Feel free to get in (civil) arguments, call me crazy, or make your own bold predictions.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Robz888 on August 20, 2012, 10:48:53 am
WW, I want to hugely agree with you on Squire. Squire is so good it's ridiculous. Granted, I only played with it once, but man, that's a great card. It's easy to see why. It's like Hamlet, only better in a lot of ways, and Hamlet is already a top 2 or 3 $2 card. It's not better in the situation where you WANT to discard cards (Menagerie, Library, Watchtower), but better in most other situations. I mean, the thing is, you can just get so many Actions and Buys out of it, so cheaply. And it bakes money into your draw engine. With Squire, it's going to be easier than ever to setup a draw-your-whole deck thing.

Oh, and that's not even considering the trash-for-Attack-card part. I'm not sure how useful that's really going to be, but it certainly doesn't make Squire worse.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Robz888 on August 20, 2012, 10:49:52 am
Speaking of Squire (and Nixon), here's another prediction: "We're all engine players now." - Robz888
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: flies on August 20, 2012, 11:07:11 am
Rats: I bought Dark Ages at GenCon ($$), and I've played around with this card a bit, and it really seems like a trap.  Each time you play it, you trash something (good) and you get more rats (bad).  It trashes without ridding your deck of crap, and without direct benefit.  The only way this helps you at all is if you can make use of TfB on your copious rats later (preferbaly non-terminals like upgrade and apprentice, since you'll have many rats), but you your deck will not be thin, so it'll be harder to make them hit without a high concentration of TfB cards, which it will be hard to buy since rats actually hurts your buying power insofar as you trash copper and get rats.

Most of the games I've played with Rats so far, I've ended up concentrating a lot of energy just getting rid of the rats.

Only buy this when having what amounts to a $4-cost curse is going to be of use to you, that is, rarely.

edit: vineyard+rats?
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: GendoIkari on August 20, 2012, 11:12:02 am
Oh, and that's not even considering the trash-for-Attack-card part. I'm not sure how useful that's really going to be, but it certainly doesn't make Squire worse.

Sure it does! Without that ability, you could Swindle someone's Squire into an Estate. Because of that ability, on the right board, you can now Swindle it into an Estate and a Thief! Or an Estate and a Pirate Ship. Give them 2 dead cards instead of 1! ;D
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: eHalcyon on August 20, 2012, 11:13:53 am
Oh, and that's not even considering the trash-for-Attack-card part. I'm not sure how useful that's really going to be, but it certainly doesn't make Squire worse.

Sure it does! Without that ability, you could Swindle someone's Squire into an Estate. Because of that ability, on the right board, you can now Swindle it into an Estate and a Thief! Or an Estate and a Pirate Ship. Give them 2 dead cards instead of 1! ;D

Only works if those are the only attacks on the board.  In other cases, you may end up giving them a Goons.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Robz888 on August 20, 2012, 11:17:06 am
Oh, and that's not even considering the trash-for-Attack-card part. I'm not sure how useful that's really going to be, but it certainly doesn't make Squire worse.

Sure it does! Without that ability, you could Swindle someone's Squire into an Estate. Because of that ability, on the right board, you can now Swindle it into an Estate and a Thief! Or an Estate and a Pirate Ship. Give them 2 dead cards instead of 1! ;D

Only works if those are the only attacks on the board.  In other cases, you may end up giving them a Goons.

I hadn't thought of this! But in truth, it's probably more of a defense from Swindling. If Thief is the only Attack on the board, it's worse. But even other bad Attacks aren't that bad, just situationally bad, or bad in comparison to other cards. I would rather have my Squire swindled into a Saboteur AND an Estate than just an Estate. I wouldn't buy a Saboteur, but I'll probably want one as a bonus for being swindled.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: WanderingWinder on August 20, 2012, 11:22:29 am
Oh, and that's not even considering the trash-for-Attack-card part. I'm not sure how useful that's really going to be, but it certainly doesn't make Squire worse.

Sure it does! Without that ability, you could Swindle someone's Squire into an Estate. Because of that ability, on the right board, you can now Swindle it into an Estate and a Thief! Or an Estate and a Pirate Ship. Give them 2 dead cards instead of 1! ;D

Only works if those are the only attacks on the board.  In other cases, you may end up giving them a Goons.
And those are NEVER the only attacks on the board, as swindler is out. I guess if all the swindlers are gone, but... just because there is some corner case that makes it worse does not make it worse overall.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: WanderingWinder on August 20, 2012, 11:23:12 am
Rats: I bought Dark Ages at GenCon ($$), and I've played around with this card a bit, and it really seems like a trap.  Each time you play it, you trash something (good) and you get more rats (bad).  It trashes without ridding your deck of crap, and without direct benefit.  The only way this helps you at all is if you can make use of TfB on your copious rats later (preferbaly non-terminals like upgrade and apprentice, since you'll have many rats), but you your deck will not be thin, so it'll be harder to make them hit without a high concentration of TfB cards, which it will be hard to buy since rats actually hurts your buying power insofar as you trash copper and get rats.

Most of the games I've played with Rats so far, I've ended up concentrating a lot of energy just getting rid of the rats.

Only buy this when having what amounts to a $4-cost curse is going to be of use to you, that is, rarely.

edit: vineyard+rats?
See, I would put that, but everybody has already been saying that this is a weak, terrible card.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Robz888 on August 20, 2012, 11:24:53 am
Oh, and that's not even considering the trash-for-Attack-card part. I'm not sure how useful that's really going to be, but it certainly doesn't make Squire worse.

Sure it does! Without that ability, you could Swindle someone's Squire into an Estate. Because of that ability, on the right board, you can now Swindle it into an Estate and a Thief! Or an Estate and a Pirate Ship. Give them 2 dead cards instead of 1! ;D

Only works if those are the only attacks on the board.  In other cases, you may end up giving them a Goons.
And those are NEVER the only attacks on the board, as swindler is out. I guess if all the swindlers are gone, but... just because there is some corner case that makes it worse does not make it worse overall.

Oh yeah, duh. Actually, Squire is probably an incredibly mild defense against Swindler. If you swindle my Squire, I get a Swindler. Take that!
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: eHalcyon on August 20, 2012, 11:28:27 am
I don't think DA will be as amazing for Fairgrounds as people are thinking.  Many of the unique cards disappear if you use them (Spoils, Madman).  Ruins will hurt your ability to buy more Fairgrounds.  Many cards have bonuses for getting trashed, so keeping them around for Fairgrounds means you might not be using those cards to their full potential.  Opponent's Knights may attack your unique cards, especially your own Knights.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Robz888 on August 20, 2012, 11:30:58 am
I don't think DA will be as amazing for Fairgrounds as people are thinking.  Many of the unique cards disappear if you use them (Spoils, Madman).  Ruins will hurt your ability to buy more Fairgrounds.  Many cards have bonuses for getting trashed, so keeping them around for Fairgrounds means you might not be using those cards to their full potential.  Opponent's Knights may attack your unique cards, especially your own Knights.

I disagree, so here's another bold prediction: Dark Ages will be GREAT for Fairgrounds. Especially Shelters. Shelters/Fairgrounds will be dominant over Provinces most of the time.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: eHalcyon on August 20, 2012, 11:32:13 am
I don't think DA will be as amazing for Fairgrounds as people are thinking.  Many of the unique cards disappear if you use them (Spoils, Madman).  Ruins will hurt your ability to buy more Fairgrounds.  Many cards have bonuses for getting trashed, so keeping them around for Fairgrounds means you might not be using those cards to their full potential.  Opponent's Knights may attack your unique cards, especially your own Knights.

I disagree, so here's another bold prediction: Dark Ages will be GREAT for Fairgrounds. Especially Shelters. Shelters/Fairgrounds will be dominant over Provinces most of the time.

I just think DA will be OK for Fairgrounds.  Not amazing. ;)

e.g. if Shelters+Fairgrounds is good for a board, it would probably have been an OK Fairgrounds board even without Shelters.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Squidd on August 20, 2012, 11:37:48 am
I think Rats might be worth the risk if the only other trasher is limited to non-Treasures (like Jack or Hermit) or Actions (like Death Cart -- but not Procession, that's madness). If you're feeling truly reckless, you could turn your Coppers/Curses/Ruins into Rats just so they can be killed by Knights.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: GendoIkari on August 20, 2012, 11:40:54 am
Oh, and that's not even considering the trash-for-Attack-card part. I'm not sure how useful that's really going to be, but it certainly doesn't make Squire worse.

Sure it does! Without that ability, you could Swindle someone's Squire into an Estate. Because of that ability, on the right board, you can now Swindle it into an Estate and a Thief! Or an Estate and a Pirate Ship. Give them 2 dead cards instead of 1! ;D

Only works if those are the only attacks on the board.  In other cases, you may end up giving them a Goons.
And those are NEVER the only attacks on the board, as swindler is out. I guess if all the swindlers are gone, but... just because there is some corner case that makes it worse does not make it worse overall.

Lol, duh. Indeed, Swindler has to be gone as well. Either way, I hope it was obvious that my post was tongue-in-cheek.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Insomniac on August 20, 2012, 11:49:33 am
Hunting Grounds - at 6, I don't actually expect that this is very good.

I'll disagree here.
Draw 4 cards.

If the average money value in your deck is .75, this is equal to a gold. If its any higher than that and its better than gold at the same price point. Add a TfB to the board and your probably getting a Province with your duchy (Remodel, Salvager, Apprentice, Govenor)
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: flies on August 20, 2012, 11:54:03 am
Rats: I bought Dark Ages at GenCon ($$), and I've played around with this card a bit, and it really seems like a trap.  Each time you play it, you trash something (good) and you get more rats (bad).  It trashes without ridding your deck of crap, and without direct benefit.  The only way this helps you at all is if you can make use of TfB on your copious rats later (preferbaly non-terminals like upgrade and apprentice, since you'll have many rats), but you your deck will not be thin, so it'll be harder to make them hit without a high concentration of TfB cards, which it will be hard to buy since rats actually hurts your buying power insofar as you trash copper and get rats.

Most of the games I've played with Rats so far, I've ended up concentrating a lot of energy just getting rid of the rats.

Only buy this when having what amounts to a $4-cost curse is going to be of use to you, that is, rarely.

edit: vineyard+rats?
See, I would put that, but everybody has already been saying that this is a weak, terrible card.
I guess I haven't been keeping up.  This card looked neat to me, but yeah, it's really tough to make work.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: GendoIkari on August 20, 2012, 12:03:01 pm
Hunting Grounds - at 6, I don't actually expect that this is very good.

I'll disagree here.
Draw 4 cards.

If the average money value in your deck is .75, this is equal to a gold. If its any higher than that and its better than gold at the same price point. Add a TfB to the board and your probably getting a Province with your duchy (Remodel, Salvager, Apprentice, Govenor)

Except it costs an action to play; so you can't play more than 1 per turn without Village help. Really I think this card is a lot like Adventurer in a BM game... yes, there's a fair amount of the time that playing 1 of them gets you more money to spend than playing a Gold does. But that action really is expensive, and you might draw this dead with your Smithy or whatnot. Hunting Grounds probably works better in an engine, but then $6 is really expensive for engine components. Most of the time I'd rather have a Council Room.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Schneau on August 20, 2012, 12:42:43 pm
Armory - This is going to be a very weak $4, definitely weaker than Ironworks. It will be bad for alt-VP rushes, even though you can use it to get lots of Armories in consecutive turns. If you use it to get Silver, it is worse than Bureaucrat which at least has a weak attack. So, it will be bad in rushes and BM, and only mildly ok in engines with lots of < $4 engine parts. Even then, it's not much better than Workshop. I'd guess bottom 10 cost $4 cards.

Cultist - Cultist isn't as strong as many people think. Sure, it will be good, especially in trashed-down engines, but it won't be anywhere as good as Witch. I'd place it around 15, and definitely outside the top ten $5-cost cards. The problem with Cultist is that in a mirror match, the Ruins you will receive will muck you up too much to either reliably hit $5 or have your Cultists find each other. Plus, you can't really think of it as a Lab, since even if you manage to string together a few Cultists, you won't have any actions to play other actions you find along the way.

Death Cart - What an interesting card! The self-trashing option is very much like Feast (but better (with self-attacked Ruinses)). The real power comes out when you have other actions you are willing to trash, including Ruinses and DA cards with on-trash benefits. This card will be a mid-power $4, though it will really shine on certain boards with other DA cards (can you say Death Cart + Squire + Cultists?)

Market Square The power of Market Square obviously depends a lot on the trashers on the board. Without them, this is only really viable without any other +Buy. But, I think Market Square will be an excellent opening with any decent opening trasher (Chapel, Remake, Steward, Bishop, etc.), and even some less-decent opening trashers (Lookout, Remodel, etc.). Look to see some of these openings be in the top-tier.

Storeroom - Storeroom + BM will actually be pretty strong. You can sift through a lot of cards to find Silver and Gold, and then discard anything else for money. It also allows you to happily discard your Coppers the first time around, knowing you can at least get a Copper out of any card in your hand. The combination of Cellar and Secret Chamber will make this a mid-range $3.

Counterfeit - The Treasure Throne Room we always knew Donald X. would make. This card will be an ultra-strong opening for engines, in that it allows you to trash a Copper yet still get $2 out of it, plus $1 and a Buy from Counterfeit. I like the prospect of Counterfeit + Fool's Gold opening, since Counterfeit allows FG to play twice for $5.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: werothegreat on August 20, 2012, 12:49:06 pm
Counterfeit - The Treasure Throne Room we always knew Donald X. would make. This card will be an ultra-strong opening for engines, in that it allows you to trash a Copper yet still get $2 out of it, plus $1 and a Buy from Counterfeit. I like the prospect of Counterfeit + Fool's Gold opening, since Counterfeit allows FG to play twice for $5.

Think of it as a more expensive, non-terminal Moneylender with +Buy.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Schneau on August 20, 2012, 12:52:21 pm
Counterfeit - The Treasure Throne Room we always knew Donald X. would make. This card will be an ultra-strong opening for engines, in that it allows you to trash a Copper yet still get $2 out of it, plus $1 and a Buy from Counterfeit. I like the prospect of Counterfeit + Fool's Gold opening, since Counterfeit allows FG to play twice for $5.

Think of it as a more expensive, non-terminal Moneylender with +Buy.

That also works on other treasures, especially mid-game Silvers and late-game Golds. But yes, good description.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: carstimon on August 20, 2012, 01:07:51 pm
Ok I'll bite on rats.
If the following 3 conditions are met:
-You're being cursed/looted (less necessary)
-There is (pretty good) trash for benefit
-You're making an engine
then rats will be pretty good.

Let's see:
Fishing Village, Oasis,
Rats, Horse Traders, Noble Brigand
Upgrade, Witch, Margrave, Lab, Horn of Plenty

(Besides Rats, all non DA because I'm not familiar enough with the rest of the set.)  I'd like to try this: fv/silver and hope for $5 turn 3 or 4: get Margrave. Get a rats.  Then get FV/FV/Upgrade on 3/4/5.  Well, hold back on the rats if you haven't got enough upgrades yet.  Don't play rats or buy rats if it would put your # of rats more than 1 over # of upgrades.  Upgrade rats to Margrave or Lab depending on how many FV you have.  Once you have enough upgrades (5?) hit the drawing cards, or move on to HoP.

You need like, five upgrades here, that's the big problem.  It seems like a lot of work to upgrade your upgrade, so to speak.  But see, I think the +1 card from trashing rats is big enough; I think it makes up for the times when I don't want to play rats.  And rememember this is the bold predictions thread, I haven't actually played with rats :)
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: werothegreat on August 20, 2012, 01:20:53 pm
Ok I'll bite on rats.
If the following 3 conditions are met:
-You're being cursed/looted (less necessary)
-There is (pretty good) trash for benefit
-You're making an engine
then rats will be pretty good.

Let's see:
Fishing Village, Oasis,
Rats, Horse Traders, Noble Brigand
Upgrade, Witch, Margrave, Lab, Horn of Plenty

(Besides Rats, all non DA because I'm not familiar enough with the rest of the set.)  I'd like to try this: fv/silver and hope for $5 turn 3 or 4: get Margrave. Get a rats.  Then get FV/FV/Upgrade on 3/4/5.  Well, hold back on the rats if you haven't got enough upgrades yet.  Don't play rats or buy rats if it would put your # of rats more than 1 over # of upgrades.  Upgrade rats to Margrave or Lab depending on how many FV you have.  Once you have enough upgrades (5?) hit the drawing cards, or move on to HoP.

You need like, five upgrades here, that's the big problem.  It seems like a lot of work to upgrade your upgrade, so to speak.  But see, I think the +1 card from trashing rats is big enough; I think it makes up for the times when I don't want to play rats.  And rememember this is the bold predictions thread, I haven't actually played with rats :)

I would just go for Lab - Upgrade/Rats acts as a Lab - I'd rather just get one Upgrade, rather than lots of Rats.  Now, if Lab were not on the board, say instead you had City, then I'd go Rats/Upgrade and try to empty the Rats pile.  Maybe.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: carstimon on August 20, 2012, 01:26:40 pm
...
I would just go for Lab - Upgrade/Rats acts as a Lab - I'd rather just get one Upgrade, rather than lots of Rats.  Now, if Lab were not on the board, say instead you had City, then I'd go Rats/Upgrade and try to empty the Rats pile.  Maybe.
I don't agree.  With fishing village there's no reason to not get margraves, for better draw and an attack.  Upgrade/Rats is very unlike Lab, it does not increase your hand size.  Upgrade/Rats is: replace upgrade/rats with two new cards, trash the rats, gain a $5 card.  I want more than one upgrade against witch.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: engineer on August 20, 2012, 01:31:19 pm
Like I said in the initial reactions thread, I think you guys are missing the beauty of rats.  When you have garbage in your deck, rats turn your garbage temporarily into cantrips (until you run out of garbage), giving you much faster access to your actual trasher.  If you have a solid TfB card, you will get to play it more often for a few shuffles, and you will get the additional bonus of $4-cost garbage and +1 card when trashing that garbage.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: gman314 on August 20, 2012, 01:38:11 pm
I've said this elsewhere, but I think it's worth repeating. I think that the best way to think of Rats is as a strange sort of tfb which trashes any card (except a Rats) and gives you a Rats. With this in mind, realize that it takes anything and makes it a $4. So, here is my idea for a Rats strategy.

1: Buy Rats
2: Buy TFB (Likely more than one)
3: Use Rats to trash copper/estate (priority copper; TFBs handle estates pretty well (when you don't get the tfb with rats, that is)) and gain a rats
4: Use TFB to trash Rats for benefit.
5: Repeat steps 3-4 as needed and as long as it's safe.
6: Trash remaining Rats
7: Be awesome.

You probably don't want to buy more than one Rats, and you always want to keep at most 2 rats in your deck. Although, if you get multiple tfbs you may be able to handle more rats in your deck.

This isn't a stand-alone strategy. It would probably be quite slow. This is rather an idea to use rats to make tfbs reasonable at trashing Copper. Since Rats is a cantrip, it doesn't actually hurt to turn Copper -> Rats and then Rats -> What you wanted in the first place.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: carstimon on August 20, 2012, 01:48:04 pm
and you always want to keep at most 2 rats in your deck.
Well, it never* hurts to use rats to trash a curse.

*Mandatory disclaimer about edge cases such as fairgrounds or I want to upgrade to a $1 card etc
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Forge!!! on August 20, 2012, 01:54:03 pm
Bold Prediction: On slower boards/draw your deck boards, Hunting Grounds will be a beast.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: ycz6 on August 20, 2012, 01:56:30 pm
Counterfeit seems more like a pumped-up Loan than a Moneylender to me.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: HiveMindEmulator on August 20, 2012, 01:58:42 pm
I agree on basically everything but Ironmonger and Hunting Grounds. Ironmonger will always be good, but doesn't look like it will be game-changingly good. It will rarely be the most useful card on the board, like the actual top 5-7 $4 cards are.

Hunting Grounds may not be good for BM, but it's going to be pretty good for engines, where you're more concerned with drawing your deck and then adding money afterwards (or maybe if you get your money from spoils). +4 cards goes a long way toward drawing your deck.

My "bold" prediction: DA will be a heavily engine-favoring set. This is probably not that bold, aside from the typeface, but I just wanted to point these key reasons out:
1. Shelters don't give VPs. So any strategy that doesn't trash the starting cards no longer has the 3 VP edge on trashing strategies, which basically buys another turn for the trashing strategy.
2. Spoils and upgrading cards are better for fast-cycling decks. Any time a card gains other cards, you have to wait a whole cycle to get them. Engines cycle faster than BM. In the extreme case, you can play the gained card on the turn you gain it.
3. There are a ton of villages and trashers!

A specific prediction is that Pillage is terrible for BM. There is no self-benefit this turn. You have to wait for the next shuffle to play the Spoils, and when that's done, nothing persists in your deck to maintain a decent money density while greening. People have said that Pillage somehow hurts enignes more because they can nuke your village. But to combat this, you just need more villages. If people are using Pillage, it's going to make the game longer, and you have time to collect more villages. Long games are generally going to favor engines.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: engineer on August 20, 2012, 02:00:57 pm
Counterfeit is waaaaaay better than loan.  It lets you play the treasure twice before you trash it!  That's a huge difference, even with lowly copper.  And besides trashing copper, counterfeit is a huge megaturn-enabler where you sacrifice your treasure to gain an insurmountable lead (or end the game), and loan can't even pretend to do that.

Edit: I do agree that counterfeit might be the "redesigned" loan in much the same way we expect that noble brigand was the "redesigned" thief.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: HiveMindEmulator on August 20, 2012, 02:04:36 pm
Counterfeit is waaaaaay better than loan.  It lets you play the treasure twice before you trash it!  That's a huge difference, even with lowly copper.  And besides trashing copper, counterfeit is a huge megaturn-enabler where you sacrifice your treasure to gain an insurmountable lead (or end the game), and loan can't even pretend to do that.

Edit: I do agree that counterfeit might be the "redesigned" loan in much the same way we expect that noble brigand was the "redesigned" thief.
<$5 card> is waaaay better than <$3 card>. You can probably say this for a pretty hefty percentage of card choices...
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: gman314 on August 20, 2012, 02:05:39 pm
<$5 card> is waaaay better than <$3 card>. You can probably say this for a pretty hefty percentage of card choices...

Stash is waaaaay better than Ambassador!

Edit: I know you were only talking about the majority, but I couldn't resist! :D
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: ednever on August 20, 2012, 02:59:59 pm
Oh, and that's not even considering the trash-for-Attack-card part. I'm not sure how useful that's really going to be, but it certainly doesn't make Squire worse.

Sure it does! Without that ability, you could Swindle someone's Squire into an Estate. Because of that ability, on the right board, you can now Swindle it into an Estate and a Thief! Or an Estate and a Pirate Ship. Give them 2 dead cards instead of 1! ;D

Only works if those are the only attacks on the board.  In other cases, you may end up giving them a Goons.

I hadn't thought of this! But in truth, it's probably more of a defense from Swindling. If Thief is the only Attack on the board, it's worse. But even other bad Attacks aren't that bad, just situationally bad, or bad in comparison to other cards. I would rather have my Squire swindled into a Saboteur AND an Estate than just an Estate. I wouldn't buy a Saboteur, but I'll probably want one as a bonus for being swindled.

Isn't worse case an Estate and a Swindler? (unless the swindler came from black market I guess)

Ed
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: chwhite on August 20, 2012, 03:12:35 pm
I think it's actually not bold at all to call Squire a power card.  +2 Actions, +$1 for $2 is pretty reasonable to begin with, and when you add in all the other things it can do for your engine (+2 Buys, trash for an Attack) OR for your alt-VP rush (Gain a Silver, +2 Buys again) I think it's entirely reasonable to view this card as on par with the Lighthouse/Courtyard/Hamlet trio, and very possibly better than them. 

Here are some bold predictions that I'm probably not going to test for awhile yet, since I'm trying to take a break from online Dominion for a little bit:

*Poor House is going to be better than you think.  Obviously it needs an enginey setup with trashing and +Action and +Buys, but when those things are around it will be an amazing way to ramp up your buy power quickly.
*Wandering Minstrel is going to be one of my favorite cards, even though it kind of defies the typical Village theming.  I've been waiting for a minstrel-themed card since day 1, and tacking that theme on to a Village that fishes for Actions is just gravy.  I think it is probably going to be the best $4 Village, certainly better than Farming, though Worker's may still have a case.
*Mercenary is not going to be all that great.  At some point, you're going to run out of things you want to trash, even with all the DA trash synergies, and it's an "if you do" clause, so it's not even like you can discard down to nothing and try to trash to get the attack.  I'm sure it will have its uses every once in a while, but most of the time I bet it's actually not worth it- or even when it is, you'll only be able to play it once or twice.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: RisingJaguar on August 20, 2012, 04:13:13 pm
Any kingdom with an engine that can draw out your hand and include Pillage will be a race nobody will want to play.  Sure there will be instances with maybe fishing villages (Can only target the +cards) or chapel-like trashing (engine cards will be more dense in the starting 5) that the attack won't hurt so much, but Pillage looks like it will crush hearts.  Luckily, there will be cards that it will nombo with (margrave, minions, etc.)

Poor house's best friend will be worker's village.  There probably will need to be some sort of trashing or maybe sifters like warehouse to help, but this looks like it'll be dominant in more games than people expect.  Of course it will be rather useless in a lot of other games, but the potential is here when there is any sort of trashing, which seems to be everywhere now. 

Hermit as a card will disappoint in games without trash for benefits, more specifically, trash and gainers.  That probably won't be a problem with DA, but if playing totally random, this will struggle to get madmen. 

Scavenger is the card chancellor wanted to be.  I think this will become a very strong card to speed up the deck and set up next turn.  At $4, it allows you to open it with a silver for a BM route. 

Overall, these cards will really struggle outside of DA (or in a 'random' set with less than 3 DA cards).  I feel almost similar to how alchemy gets a boost when playing with an alchemy-based deck, the boost will  be similar for DA.  There just aren't enough cards that can/want to trash, and do all these neat little tricks with. 

PS. Watchtower sounds silly good now. 
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: dondon151 on August 20, 2012, 04:39:09 pm
Gave my thoughts on certain card interactions here: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=4233.0

I am still unsold on the power of Feodum. It's hard to build them up even with somewhat decent support (most Silver-gainers) and they probably end up being worth little when contested. However, letting an opponent have the entire Feodum stack is disastrous, and denying Feodums is significantly less beneficial than denying other alt VP cards like Silk Road or Gardens. Really difficult to assess.

Catacombs is great for both BM and engines. It probably helps engines a bit more, because the improvement in consistency is better than a +3 card terminal drawer at $5 for BM. I can't really think of any good way to use its on-trash ability, though.

Storeroom looks pretty weak except in certain combos. It would be nice for engine consistency, but it doesn't help at all in the situations where you draw your Storeroom and terminal actions with no Village in hand. I'd much rather prefer Warehouse or even Cellar in those circumstances. +Buy is kind of useful, I guess.

Forager: good for engines; not overly strong. Non-terminal trashing is cool. Getting some small benefit out of trashing Copper (as opposed to trashers like Salvager) is also cool, but you don't get a benefit out of trashing Estates until a Copper has been trashed. Maybe not so good when $5s need to be gained quickly and trashing isn't so necessary, but this should enable weaker engines better.

Marauder: don't know exactly how powerful this is, but I'm guessing it's a power $4. The attack is nearly as disruptive as Sea Hag, but this card also gives you a temporary source of buying power that Sea Hag doesn't provide. I may legitimately take one of these over Sea Hag first of both are on the board just for the Spoils. Though, Sea Hag does put the Curse on your deck. Hmm...

Market Square is basically like Tunnel, but the situations in which they play are completely different. Market Square works with trashing; trashing makes it more likely to pair your trasher with Market Square; trashing stalls your economy temporarily but Market Square gets you Golds for free, and Market Square is a cantrip +buy once your engine gets going. Kingdom-dependent, but really a must-have in any engine that has trashing.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Rhombus on August 20, 2012, 04:46:27 pm
Re WW: Hunting Grounds is good if you can upgrade into it, or if you really need draw, but it is indeed situational due to cost.
Re ch: Poor House definitely is good - and playing a moneyless deck is super fun too.
Re everyone: I agree, Squire is a power $2.

I love Hermit/Madman - it's like flexible Tactician, and that's awesome.

Bold Predictions:

Hermit/Madman may become my favorite new card(s).

Strategies to use Pillage and top deck them from the trash on the same turn will be strong (with a high 1p advantage).  Whoever gets this set up first may very well win.

Marauder is very strong because not only does it dole out ruins, but you gain spoils at the same time.  You'll need a very good counter to avoid having to purchase a Marauder or two yourself.

Wandering Minstrel may become the village of choice in most games.

Death Cart games where it's a key component will be very swingy and hated (if purchasing it early is important, which with a card like Marauder or perhaps even Cultist it will be).  Less swingly in mid and end game.  In a ruins game without much/any trashing, once ruins are out this is a powerhouse.

Cursers will lose strength to Looters because looters tend to have much more benefit to the attacker.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Squeek on August 20, 2012, 04:55:38 pm
I can see Beggar being a great card when Gardens and/or Dukes are out.  Copper and silver is all you need to get to 4 or 5.

Beggar + Trader is a great combo as well.

Beggar could also help feed your rats when vineyard is in play.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Rhombus on August 20, 2012, 05:01:32 pm
re dondon: Forager will be a good mid/end game card on most boards - it's Trade Route but with treasure cards.  It also combos well with Procession, TR, KC, or some similar setup.  I agree on Storeroom and Marauder.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: werothegreat on August 20, 2012, 05:02:46 pm
BOLD PREDICTION:

Worker's Village/Beggar/Counting House will be AWESOME.  Maybe throw some Coppersmiths in there.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: dondon151 on August 20, 2012, 05:04:09 pm
re dondon: Forager will be a good mid/end game card on most boards - it's Trade Route but with treasure cards.

I will almost have to disagree on this one. Whereas buying varied VP cards is nearly inevitable in the endgame, trashing good Treasures is not. Maybe you will trash a Silver; you will almost not certainly trash Gold, though. Definitely not to build up Forager, because: if you do it early on, you lose a Gold, and if you do it later in the final stretch, you could have trashed a Copper/VP/Action card for slightly more net coin.

EDIT: Forager/Quarry in the presence of a good engine should be decent, though. Collision is good; once you don't need the Quarry anymore, +$1 on the Forager.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: AJD on August 20, 2012, 05:04:50 pm
Hermit as a card will disappoint in games without trash for benefits, more specifically, trash and gainers.  That probably won't be a problem with DA, but if playing totally random, this will struggle to get madmen. 

Wait, why? Hermit self-trashes.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Beyond Awesome on August 20, 2012, 05:05:14 pm
Bold Prediction: Beggar/BM will be a legitimate play style. Open Beggar/Silver on 4/3 split or even 5/2 for that matter. Whenever you can get a gold or Province by playing Beggar, play Beggar. Yah, those Coppers will dilute your deck, but just play Beggar a couple of times or so per game.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: werothegreat on August 20, 2012, 05:08:59 pm
Beggar/Trader/Feodum
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Rhombus on August 20, 2012, 05:09:36 pm
re dondon: Forager will be a good mid/end game card on most boards - it's Trade Route but with treasure cards.

I will almost have to disagree on this one. Whereas buying varied VP cards is nearly inevitable in the endgame, trashing good Treasures is not. Maybe you will trash a Silver; you will almost not certainly trash Gold, though. Definitely not to build up Forager, because: if you do it early on, you lose a Gold, and if you do it later in the final stretch, you could have trashed a Copper/VP/Action card for slightly more net coin.

It really depends on what TFB's are on the board, as you said.  And if you have the stronger engine, then you can get a gold in there to power your Foragers.  Thinking more, I'm probably not evaluating completely correctly because on the game or two I played with Forager, my opponent fully powered it for me, but my engine was stronger so thrashed him with it (completing 2 and 3 province turns).  There were also reasons to pick up Foragers eg plenty of actions, Armory, and strong 4's, BOM, and good 6's, all typically being TFB, so there was trashing left and right.

In general in Dark Ages games, the trash pile always gets huge - bigger than any deck by far.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: adf on August 20, 2012, 05:14:25 pm
Wait, why? Hermit self-trashes.

Has nothing to do with Hermit trashing, has to do with buy forfeit. It's basically like a cheaper Tac that provides the big hand on some turn in the future (perhaps the next, perhaps later).
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: clb on August 20, 2012, 05:42:12 pm
I think it's actually not bold at all to call Squire a power card.  +2 Actions, +$1 for $2 is pretty reasonable to begin with, and
*Mercenary is not going to be all that great.  At some point, you're going to run out of things you want to trash, even with all the DA trash synergies, and it's an "if you do" clause, so it's not even like you can discard down to nothing and try to trash to get the attack.  I'm sure it will have its uses every once in a while, but most of the time I bet it's actually not worth it- or even when it is, you'll only be able to play it once or twice.

So, do you think Mercenaries love skewering and roasting Rats? Combo or nombo?
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: adf on August 20, 2012, 05:45:57 pm
Bold Prediction: Beggar/BM will be a legitimate play style. Open Beggar/Silver on 4/3 split or even 5/2 for that matter. Whenever you can get a gold or Province by playing Beggar, play Beggar. Yah, those Coppers will dilute your deck, but just play Beggar a couple of times or so per game.

It's a little iffy. 3 Copper + Gold = $1.5/card, just below the $1.6/card needed for Provinces.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: LastFootnote on August 20, 2012, 05:50:34 pm
I think Forager may be effective in games with Knights and Rogues, where Silver and Gold may be trashed incidentally.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: RisingJaguar on August 20, 2012, 05:57:28 pm
Wait, why? Hermit self-trashes.

Has nothing to do with Hermit trashing, has to do with buy forfeit. It's basically like a cheaper Tac that provides the big hand on some turn in the future (perhaps the next, perhaps later).
When I read your comment I thought I made a huge error, but yes the set has a lot of trash to gain cards (Graverobber, Altar, any more?), which is a lot compared to the hundred of cards before and only having Remodel and expand that I can really think off that top of my head.  That's a pretty big let down if hermit plays outside of DA.

Maybe trash for gain isn't the only method and general gainers will help too.  Off the top of my head, sounds like only horn of plenty would be a viable method to gaining provinces outside the trash for gains. 
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: engineer on August 20, 2012, 06:56:05 pm
Wait, why? Hermit self-trashes.

Has nothing to do with Hermit trashing, has to do with buy forfeit. It's basically like a cheaper Tac that provides the big hand on some turn in the future (perhaps the next, perhaps later).
When I read your comment I thought I made a huge error, but yes the set has a lot of trash to gain cards (Graverobber, Altar, any more?), which is a lot compared to the hundred of cards before and only having Remodel and expand that I can really think off that top of my head.  That's a pretty big let down if hermit plays outside of DA.

Maybe trash for gain isn't the only method and general gainers will help too.  Off the top of my head, sounds like only horn of plenty would be a viable method to gaining provinces outside the trash for gains.

I guess this is an obvious comment, but I bet Hermit will also be useful in kingdoms with cursers.  It basically allows you to remodel a curse into a silver (or any other useful $2 or $3), and it's much easier to stamp out curses when you can pull them from the trash.  I wouldn't be surprised if hermit is one of those cards that lets you skip buying cursers of your own if they don't fit into your strategy.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Wingnut on August 20, 2012, 07:35:32 pm
OK I'll join in on this one.

Feodum will end up as the worst Alt-VP in the game (except Great Hall). It will have it's moments just as Farmland does, but it will still end up incredibly weak, especially compared to its cost 4 brothers Gardens and Silk Road.

Rebuild is going to join Grand Market, Haggler, Tournament and Peddler (with extra buys) as big snowball cards. It will end up being used to trash Provinces for Provinces most of the time and speed the game to force Engine builders to work quicker.

Despite what it appears, Chapel will not be the best friend of Dark Ages. There are so many other ways to trash now that Chapel, while still powerful, will end up as one of the bunch of many trashing cards. With all the other trashers, it will be skippable on engine boards a lot more often than it was before Dark Ages.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Insomniac on August 20, 2012, 08:21:48 pm
A bold prediction, Knights will SUCK if there is a card that has a beneficial when trashed effect (ie fortress) or Tunnel is on board.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: chwhite on August 20, 2012, 08:29:06 pm
Also: FWIW, I'm not entirely sold on Rebuild, but other than that I agree with Winder's OP 100 percent.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: eHalcyon on August 20, 2012, 08:29:43 pm
I can see Beggar being a great card when Gardens and/or Dukes are out.  Copper and silver is all you need to get to 4 or 5.

Beggar + Trader is a great combo as well.

Beggar could also help feed your rats when vineyard is in play.

Remember that using Trader on Beggar's Coppers won't put those Silvers into your hand.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: sffc on August 20, 2012, 08:36:26 pm
Okay, time for some of my na´ve bold predictions that might turn out to be true for some of these cards.  In alphabetical order:

Under the right circumstances, Count will be one of the strongest cards in Dark Ages.  Like with Minion, my prediction depends on having a high concentration of Counts in your deck.  However, unlike Minion, Count helps clean out your deck with its "trash your hand" option.  2 Counts can hit $6 to buy more Counts or benefit-on-trash cards (like Cultist); 3 Counts can either hit a Province or hit $6 and trigger junk riddance/benefit-on-trash cards; and 4 Counts can hit both a Province and trigger junk riddance/benefit-on-trash cards.  Of course, this depends on having either Villages or ThroneRooms/KingsCourts, so any buys that aren't used for Count or benefit-on-trash should be used for these cards.  In late game when your deck is bloated and you can't get your Counts and Villages/ThroneRooms/KingsCourts to collide, Count provides a nice solution: just gain a Duchy!  This nice little perk should enable a Count deck to win many games just because it is so ridiculously fast when duchy dancing.

Junk Dealer will be a dead card in the presence of other non-terminal trashers.  I mean, in almost all cases, lonely little Upgrade is better than Junk Dealer.  Of course, in the lack of other trashers, Junk Dealer will be strong, but only for the same reason that Walled Village is strong in games that lack other Villages.

Poor House will also be a powerful card.  In a deck planned around it, Poor House is almost always going to be worth at least $2 or $3, and often $4, like Harvest.  But unlike Harvest, Poor House is cheap and easy to get!  Expect to see pro-level games that revolve around who can most effectively use Poor House.

Procession is definitely a combo card.  I expect Procession's most powerful combo to be with Border Village: play any $5 card twice, then just gain a copy back again along with a free Village.

Storeroom will be a Duke/Duchy enabler, similar in principle to Horse Traders.  All that's needed is 1 Silver per 9 cards in your deck: if you draw Storeroom with no Silver, just discard everything and draw 4 cards.  As soon as you have your Silver, you can hit $5 by discarding whatever else you drew.  Because of the fact that you can discard Copper without any problem, in non-Duke games, Storeroom will also be a powerful curse counter for Big Money (although not a discard-attack counter).

Wandering Minstrel will be the best $4 village in games that lack combos with other $4 villages (like Fortress and Worker's Village).  For perspective, Shanty Town seems to go out of its way to make sure that it doesn't collide with your actions, but Wandering Minstrel does just the opposite.  Wandering Minstrel also has a powerful synergy with Scrying Pool.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Loschmidt on August 20, 2012, 08:51:47 pm
Rats + Hermit will beat DoubleJack

Bold prediction in bold :P
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Loschmidt on August 20, 2012, 08:56:39 pm
A bold prediction, Knights will SUCK if there is a card that has a beneficial when trashed effect (ie fortress) or Tunnel is on board.

Tunnel may not be the best defence to Knights. Tunnel/Copper means Tunnel is trashed and gains you no Gold.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: dondon151 on August 20, 2012, 09:06:11 pm
Junk Dealer will be a dead card in the presence of other non-terminal trashers.  I mean, in almost all cases, lonely little Upgrade is better than Junk Dealer.  Of course, in the lack of other trashers, Junk Dealer will be strong, but only for the same reason that Walled Village is strong in games that lack other Villages.

Disagree here. Junk Dealer will yield +$1 compared to Upgrade on any given play. Upgrade Estate -> Silver gives you more money on subsequent shuffles, but Junk Dealer on Estates yields more money now. Unless you want something like Village or Menagerie in the kingdom, Junk Dealer should not be significantly weaker. Upgrade is also much weaker with Shelters around.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: AJD on August 20, 2012, 09:11:22 pm
A bold prediction, Knights will SUCK if there is a card that has a beneficial when trashed effect (ie fortress) or Tunnel is on board.

Tunnel may not be the best defence to Knights. Tunnel/Copper means Tunnel is trashed and gains you no Gold.

I think Insomniac has the right of it here: Knights discard and then trash. So Knight hitting Tunnel/Copper trashes the Tunnel, but you do get the Gold.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Loschmidt on August 20, 2012, 10:22:32 pm
A bold prediction, Knights will SUCK if there is a card that has a beneficial when trashed effect (ie fortress) or Tunnel is on board.

Tunnel may not be the best defence to Knights. Tunnel/Copper means Tunnel is trashed and gains you no Gold.

I think Insomniac has the right of it here: Knights discard and then trash. So Knight hitting Tunnel/Copper trashes the Tunnel, but you do get the Gold.

Hmmm, there you go. I assumed that it was reveal, trash, discard. This makes Tunnel a very good Knight defence indeed.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Razzishi on August 20, 2012, 10:31:33 pm
Band of Misfits will be pretty bad in general.  Most of the time you'll end up wishing you'd bought a card that gives you $5 worth of value.  There will definitely be boards where it's good, and spotting those times will be a sign of a skilled player.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: michaeljb on August 20, 2012, 10:52:51 pm
Band of Misfits will be pretty bad in general.  Most of the time you'll end up wishing you'd bought a card that gives you $5 worth of value.  There will definitely be boards where it's good, and spotting those times will be a sign of a skilled player.

It will certainly lessen the sting of opening 5/2 with Ambassador/Sea Hag/Masquerade/etc on the board.

edit: You know what, I'm just going to go ahead and boldly predict Band of Misfits will be awesome. Steward is a strong $3 because of the choices it has, not because any one of those is worth $3 on its own. Sure on some boards it won't be great*, but I expect it will be a good card.

*The Fundamental Theorem of Dominion: It depends on the board.
You heard it here first.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Beyond Awesome on August 20, 2012, 11:36:11 pm
Band of Misfits will be pretty bad in general.  Most of the time you'll end up wishing you'd bought a card that gives you $5 worth of value.  There will definitely be boards where it's good, and spotting those times will be a sign of a skilled player.

It will certainly lessen the sting of opening 5/2 with Ambassador/Sea Hag/Masquerade/etc on the board.

edit: You know what, I'm just going to go ahead and boldly predict Band of Misfits will be awesome. Steward is a strong $3 because of the choices it has, not because any one of those is worth $3 on its own. Sure on some boards it won't be great*, but I expect it will be a good card.

*The Fundamental Theorem of Dominion: It depends on the board.
You heard it here first.

I also predict that Band of Misfits will be awesome and will be a strong card on most boards. If Dominion has taught me anything, it's that cards that give me lots of choices tend to be very strong.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: gman314 on August 20, 2012, 11:37:03 pm
So are cards that do a whole bunch of things at the same time.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Eevee on August 20, 2012, 11:51:49 pm
So is scout.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Tmwinand on August 21, 2012, 12:15:33 am
A bold prediction, Knights will SUCK if there is a card that has a beneficial when trashed effect (ie fortress) or Tunnel is on board.

Tunnel may not be the best defence to Knights. Tunnel/Copper means Tunnel is trashed and gains you no Gold.

I think Insomniac has the right of it here: Knights discard and then trash. So Knight hitting Tunnel/Copper trashes the Tunnel, but you do get the Gold.

The card says reveal->trash->discard.  Tunnel does not activate in that scenario
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: eHalcyon on August 21, 2012, 12:17:46 am
A bold prediction, Knights will SUCK if there is a card that has a beneficial when trashed effect (ie fortress) or Tunnel is on board.

Tunnel may not be the best defence to Knights. Tunnel/Copper means Tunnel is trashed and gains you no Gold.

I think Insomniac has the right of it here: Knights discard and then trash. So Knight hitting Tunnel/Copper trashes the Tunnel, but you do get the Gold.

The card says reveal->trash->discard.  Tunnel does not activate in that scenario

"Each other player discards the top 2 cards of his deck, and trashes one of them costing from $3 to $6."

Doesn't even say reveal.  Just discard->trash.  Tunnel activates.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Tmwinand on August 21, 2012, 12:22:45 am
My bad! I was looking at Rogue!  ;D
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: eHalcyon on August 21, 2012, 12:39:03 am
My bad! I was looking at Rogue!  ;D

Rogue actually goes reveal > discard > trash, so Tunnel activates in that case too. :P
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: empra on August 21, 2012, 08:56:54 am
unless there is a misprint in the dark ages rules I downloaded I'm seeing;

"each other player reveals the top two cards of his deck, trashes one of them costing from 3 to 6, and discards the rest. If a knight is trashed by this, trash this card."

or

".....Otherwise, each other player reveals the top 2 cards of his deck, trashes one of them costing from 3 to 6, and discards the rest."

In either case I don't see how tunnel gets activated if it gets trashed.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Grujah on August 21, 2012, 09:01:54 am
A bold prediction, Knights will SUCK if there is a card that has a beneficial when trashed effect (ie fortress) or Tunnel is on board.

Tunnel may not be the best defence to Knights. Tunnel/Copper means Tunnel is trashed and gains you no Gold.

I think Insomniac has the right of it here: Knights discard and then trash. So Knight hitting Tunnel/Copper trashes the Tunnel, but you do get the Gold.

The card says reveal->trash->discard.  Tunnel does not activate in that scenario

"Each other player discards the top 2 cards of his deck, and trashes one of them costing from $3 to $6."

Doesn't even say reveal.  Just discard->trash.  Tunnel activates.

eHalc, where are you getting this info?

Scan of the cads.
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/20240121/dark_ages/3.jpg

Reveal top 2, trash one, discard the rest.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: LastFootnote on August 21, 2012, 09:07:55 am
They're getting the info from the front page of the blog, which has incorrect wording for several cards. Either theory posted an old wording for the cards, or he decided to paraphrase them.

Either way, both Rogue and Knights reveal, trash, then discard. A trashed Tunnel will not activate first.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: AJD on August 21, 2012, 09:50:28 am
Oh, okay. My mistake.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: eHalcyon on August 21, 2012, 10:53:14 am
They're getting the info from the front page of the blog, which has incorrect wording for several cards. Either theory posted an old wording for the cards, or he decided to paraphrase them.

Either way, both Rogue and Knights reveal, trash, then discard. A trashed Tunnel will not activate first.

Oh, well, OK then. Darn front page!  :P
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: theory on August 21, 2012, 11:00:15 am
They're getting the info from the front page of the blog, which has incorrect wording for several cards. Either theory posted an old wording for the cards, or he decided to paraphrase them.

Either way, both Rogue and Knights reveal, trash, then discard. A trashed Tunnel will not activate first.

Good catch.  I am using card texts from the Isotropic playtest server, which were very slightly tweaked after testing and before it was printed.

EDIT: Fixed front page.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: geemsean on August 21, 2012, 01:06:31 pm
I also feel that Squire may end up being an extreme power card.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Razzishi on August 22, 2012, 10:35:11 pm
Steward is a strong $3 because of the choices it has, not because any one of those is worth $3 on its own.

Steward is good because it's one of the few cards that can trash 2 cards at once and not be completely dead once the trashing isn't needed, with each of the other options being potentially useful dependent on deck composition.  Stated another way, Steward's 3 options make it strong despite each option being worse than a $2 because they each do completely different things; while at the beginning of the game +$2 and +2 cards are very similar, once you've done some trashing they'll be completely different.  There's absolutely no reason to believe that such a balance of effects will be available with Band of Misfits on a randomly chosen board without looking at that board as a whole.  Steward is pretty much an auto-go-to in absence of better options; BoM is a card that requires specific justification each time.

So yes, it's board dependent, and my gut feeling is that it's going to be generally a waste of a $5 with the occasional Militia/Masq/Village board.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: michaeljb on August 22, 2012, 10:55:53 pm
There's absolutely no reason to believe that such a balance of effects will be available with Band of Misfits on a randomly chosen board without looking at that board as a whole.

Except for the one--that a majority* of the published kingdom cards cost less than $5.

edit
*104/192
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: NoMoreFun on August 22, 2012, 11:02:59 pm
*Scavenger/Stash will be the first combo that the community would rule as "broken", and may be subject to bans.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: michaeljb on August 22, 2012, 11:08:23 pm
*Scavenger/Stash will be the first combo that the community would rule as "broken", and may be subject to bans.

Sims or it won't happen.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Beyond Awesome on August 22, 2012, 11:11:27 pm
*Scavenger/Stash will be the first combo that the community would rule as "broken", and may be subject to bans.

Sims or it won't happen.

Well, it does have the benefit of being an unstoppable combo once it goes off unless there is a discard attack. I wouldn't call this broken, but it could mean that whoever goes first or gets the better split ends up winning.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: michaeljb on August 22, 2012, 11:14:08 pm
*Scavenger/Stash will be the first combo that the community would rule as "broken", and may be subject to bans.

Sims or it won't happen.

Well, it does have the benefit of being an unstoppable combo once it goes off unless there is a discard attack. I wouldn't call this broken, but it could mean that whoever goes first or gets the better split ends up winning.

True, I'm sure it will be very strong, and hardly the first "better split ends up winning" combo.

I just laughed a little when the word "broken" was mentioned, and then the old "pics or didn't happen" popped into my head, and I just had to translate it to DS-speak and post it :P
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: NoMoreFun on August 22, 2012, 11:18:21 pm
*Scavenger/Stash will be the first combo that the community would rule as "broken", and may be subject to bans.

Sims or it won't happen.

I put a thread in the Puzzles board, asking how fast the combo could be set up with rotten shuffle luck, and with rotten shuffle luck and a Sea Hag attacking you every turn. The results may be surprisingly fast, considering how well the parts of the combo assist each other in completing the combo (Scavenger's +$2 will be key). With this combo you only need to buy 5 cards and play 1 to guarantee a province buy from every turn after that. Militia style attacks will only hold you off for a single turn. Pillage will work precisely once, and then you can buy a 4th stash with the $6 in your hand, and then come next scavenger play you'll still be able to buy a province after a pillage - not very good odds for a oneshot. Minion is the only true counter.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: NoMoreFun on August 22, 2012, 11:47:12 pm
I should point out though that every hand you have the chance of getting both scavengers in the same hand, which will screw you up (so you'd need an extra scavenger or stash to pull off the combo impeccably)
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Beyond Awesome on August 23, 2012, 12:02:00 am
I should point out though that every hand you have the chance of getting both scavengers in the same hand, which will screw you up (so you'd need an extra scavenger or stash to pull off the combo impeccably)

I bet the statistics though of that happening are very slim, especially as more and more Provinces are added to your deck.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: michaeljb on August 23, 2012, 02:25:08 am
*Scavenger/Stash will be the first combo that the community would rule as "broken", and may be subject to bans.

Sims or it won't happen.

I put a thread in the Puzzles board, asking how fast the combo could be set up with rotten shuffle luck, and with rotten shuffle luck and a Sea Hag attacking you every turn. The results may be surprisingly fast, considering how well the parts of the combo assist each other in completing the combo (Scavenger's +$2 will be key). With this combo you only need to buy 5 cards and play 1 to guarantee a province buy from every turn after that. Militia style attacks will only hold you off for a single turn. Pillage will work precisely once, and then you can buy a 4th stash with the $6 in your hand, and then come next scavenger play you'll still be able to buy a province after a pillage - not very good odds for a oneshot. Minion is the only true counter.

Even so, I doubt the community will call Scavenger/Stash "broken." I don't have any links on hand, but if you do a bit of digging on BGG you can find many a thread where someone argued something was broken, and hilarity ensued.

I don't even think there's really a community consensus that the KC/Masq pin is "broken."
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: NoMoreFun on August 23, 2012, 02:28:07 am
I can't wait to see simulation stats for some of the Dark Ages combos. I'm having a hard time imagining Big Money winning a single game against Scavenger/Stash.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: blueblimp on August 23, 2012, 03:04:21 am
Scavenger/Stash isn't broken unless it is much better than Wharf/Fool's Gold and Ironworks/Silk Road (previous to Dark Ages, the strongest non-attacking 2-card combos according to simulation).
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: engineer on August 23, 2012, 03:13:00 am
In my mind, a strategy is "broken" if it's the dominant strategy on every board on which it exists.  Scavenger/stash seems like it might be close to that.  But I'm not convinced yet.

One thing we're not taking into account here is the amount of time required to acquire 3 $5 cards and two $4 cards.  Obviously that's usually pretty quick, but that process can be slowed down.  For example, double militia may only be marginally effective once the scavenger/stash combo is built, but maybe it's powerful enough to slow down the combo building phase sufficiently to beat the strategy.  Alternatively, if a full-deck-drawing engine can be built quickly enough and a militia-type attack is available, then that militia can be played every turn, effectively blocking the scavenger/stash combo from getting provinces.

IF scavenger/stash turns out to be dominant on every board without minion, then I would call that close enough to broken to be unfun. But, as NoMoreFun pointed out, Minion hard counters this strategy, so scavenger/stash definitely isn't always dominant; and if the above militia strategies are effective as well, then I'd say there are enough kingdoms which beat this strategy to make it interesting.

I will admit that I'm curious if Donald saw the scavenger/stash combo in playtesting. 
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: ftl on August 23, 2012, 03:15:47 am
I'm pretty sure he did, considering Chancellor/Stash is pretty well-known and Scavenger is basically based on Chancellor.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Loschmidt on August 23, 2012, 03:57:51 am
I will admit that I'm curious if Donald saw the scavenger/stash combo in playtesting.

He's probably not too worried because it won't come up too often and also Stash is a promo. Weird shit is allowed to happen with promos.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: ghostofmars on August 23, 2012, 08:23:32 am
I think Sca/Sta is going to be quite strong, if your Sca never collide.

The fastest way to 4xProvince is 10 turns
1+2) open Sca/Sil
3) buy Sca
4-6) Sca (topdeck Sca), buy Sta
7-10) Sca (topdeck Sca), buy Prov

But even a slow game with 5/2 and Sca missing first reshuffle start
1+2) open Sca/-
3+4) buy Sca/Sil
5) Sca (topdeck Sca), buy Sil
6-8) Sca (topdeck Sca), buy Sta
9-12) Sca (topdeck Sca), buy Prov

The biggest risk is to hit two Sca in one hand which amounts to (4-s) / (n-1) for s Stashes in a n card deck. As a consequence in ~50% of the you games, you will buy 3 Stashes without collision, in the rest you have bad luck and will loose 2~3 turns cycling the deck once more.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Gamer-man on August 23, 2012, 10:57:21 am
I predict that the secret history of dark ages will have at least 5 former intrigue cards mentioned (as that was the "one shot" expansion before that theme got scrapped).  but that isn't all that bold, i want a bolder prediction

"Shanty Town: I took this from the ruins of the 7th expansion."

I boldly predict that the ruins of 7th expansion was literally the ruins of the 7th expansion this whole time!
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: adf on August 23, 2012, 02:14:00 pm
Is it worth buying a fourth Stash for the guaranteed lock? The sims can answer this.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Beyond Awesome on August 23, 2012, 05:25:06 pm
Is it worth buying a fourth Stash for the guaranteed lock? The sims can answer this.

No. Go green--Duchy. At least, that is what I think.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: jonts26 on August 23, 2012, 05:58:49 pm
So before you get this set up, you might end up buying a third scavenger or a 4th stash anyway. In which case the following is moot. However, it's probability time.

The chances of colliding scavengers once this is set up is 1 in deck size - 4. Or for our purposes, P(No Collision) = (d-5)/(d-4), where d is total deck size. So let's say we have a kingdom where there are no extra buys and we set up by turn 10 so we have a 19 card deck. Then P(NC)=.933 for that turn. If we assume the deck grows by 1 each turn, then the cumulative probability of no collision is Pcum,n=Pcum,n-1*(dn-5)/(dn-4), where dn is the deck size on turn n. So you get 4 provinces before a problem 77.8% of the time, 5 provinces 73.7% of the time and all 8 provinces 63.6% of the time.

So odds are good that you won't have any issues once you get set up. But it's really bad to miss early here, because you need to go through your whole deck before you can hit province (most likely) again. So I would say, try to foolproof this strategy early with an extra scavenger or stash, but once you start buying provinces, just start greening and hope for no bad luck.


/math
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Piemaster on August 26, 2012, 02:48:26 am
I'm chuffed that my opinions which I already registered in the other thread seem to broadly align with WWs as that suggests my card evaluation is not too off-base, other than Ironmonger, which I think will be more like Tribute than anything.  In addition:

Pillage - The new Possession.  The benefits are good, but the costs are higher than they first seem.

Bandit Camp - The new Market.  A nice card that will never be bad as such, but it will be terribly overvalued by weaker players.

Sage - The new Jack of All Trades.  It will end up being extremely good but nobody will quite be able to work out why.

Band of Misfits - The new Horn of Plenty.  Good players will often use to to devastating effect, while bad players will try to use it and get crushed.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: eHalcyon on August 26, 2012, 03:13:35 am
Sage - The new Jack of All Trades.  It will end up being extremely good but nobody will quite be able to work out why.

I think Sage will be good because it will help cycle and line up strong cards.  In a game I played with Sage, it let me power through curses and coppers to get to my own Witch more often, and also to line up Fortress and multiple Goons in a junked deck.

Jack is good because it trashes junk (Estates and Curses) while flooding your deck and still leaving you with a good hand (by drawing back up to 5 with slightly filtering).  It does a little of everything in one convenient package.  It wasn't known when it was new, but it's understood now!
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: brokoli on August 26, 2012, 04:53:58 am
I can't wait to play with DA... here are some thought :

- Hunting ground will be better than most people expect. +4 cards is so much better than +3 cards. And the "if trashed" effect is massive at the end of the game. This card is probably good for BM but better for engines : Something with remodel, especially.

- Poorhouse will be incredibly strong if you can trash all your coppers. I think it will be an excellent card for engines.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: yog-sothothry on August 28, 2012, 12:14:44 am
I'll give bold prediction a go:

Graverobber's remodel ability will be used far more often than its trash-retrieval ability.

Usually, by the time you start trashing expensive cards for provinces, you will want to use graverobber to trash more cards for provinces, or for duchys at worst, rather than bother retrieving the card from the trash (or so I suspect).
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: werothegreat on August 28, 2012, 12:47:35 am
Beggar will own Gardens games.

Vagrant will fall into the "ignorable but harmless if that's all you have to spend" category of cantrip $2s, along with Pearl Diver.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: kn1tt3r on August 28, 2012, 12:52:03 am
Beggar will own Gardens games.
I just tried this in a solitary game. I got the Gardens to 7 VP in like 26 turns. The only issue is that it takes some time to three pile (I piled out Beggars, Gardens and Duchies), and if you get only half the beggars it won't be as easy as it was in my game.

But yes, it's strong.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: brokoli on August 28, 2012, 02:28:13 am
Vagrant will fall into the "ignorable but harmless if that's all you have to spend" category of cantrip $2s, along with Pearl Diver.

With pawn too (ok, sometimes you want a pawn for 3$ because you really want the +buy, but it's still rare).

I think beggar is underrated, and you will want one more often than a moat or a secret chamber.

Count is probably overrated, and it's not "strictly better" than mandarin because it's completely different. The main power of mandarin is the on-gain ability.

I think Junk Dealer will be faster than upgrade.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: kn1tt3r on August 28, 2012, 02:36:59 am
I think Junk Dealer will be faster than upgrade.
Of course it's faster, because you trash down you deck more (no upgrading of estates). Which also means it becomes a dead card sooner, especially because you cannot turn it into Gold once you've trashed down enough (of course you can always trash Junk Dealer though).
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: clb on August 31, 2012, 12:24:13 pm
I have a couple of semi-bold predictions.
Count will be a card that is great if you can get it on a 5/2, or otherwise quickly; after that, it will largely shine in the late game and especially as the come-back-kid. You can use the return a card option like a courtyard to put back money or an action that might be more useful next turn, and then grab a Duchy still. I don't suspect that it will be a good card for Duchy rushes solely because it costs $5.
Storeroom, on the other hand, will be great for Duchy/Duke rushes. You can open Storeroom/Storeroom (or maybe a silver?), and as long as you have at least one silver in the top 9 cards (5 in hand and up to 4 from the first discard), then you are guaranteed $5 with a +buy to pick up a copper if you like. In that vein, Storeroom will rock Gardens games as it will let you get a Gardens and X every time you play it, and after the Gardens are gone, getting a Duchy or two Estates should be a simple matter.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: werothegreat on August 31, 2012, 01:05:35 pm
I can now safely say that Band of Misfits and Fortress are ridiculous and are in the top 5 of their respective price groups.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: microman on August 31, 2012, 06:10:49 pm
I've got a bold prediction for ya.  Death Cart will be a dominant play on most boards and an important piece in any engine! :o Howz that for bold! 8)
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: jonts26 on August 31, 2012, 06:16:12 pm
I can now safely say that Band of Misfits and Fortress are ridiculous and are in the top 5 of their respective price groups.

Woah, that is bold but lets not get carried away. I think they are both like to be very strong, but top 5? That's crazy talk. Think about the current top 5's and tell me which one these displace.

EDIT: To add to this, I think they both have the potential to be powerhouses on the right board. But the board dependence is going to make them weaker than the top 5s which are almost always going to play strong.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: microman on August 31, 2012, 06:28:17 pm
Beggar will own Gardens games.

Vagrant will fall into the "ignorable but harmless if that's all you have to spend" category of cantrip $2s, along with Pearl Diver.
However, I think Vagrant would pair quite nicely with mystic and/or Wandering Minstrel.  When comboing  vagrant with mystic, if you weren't able to pick up the revealed card you could snag it with mystic already knowing what it is.  Wandering Minstrel could help you stack that ruined action so you could pick it up with vagrant via the revealed card.  Not to mention in heavy looting games where you will have lots of ruined actions in your deck, vagrant will be very helpful in putting those in hand so you can trash them. :) 
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: eHalcyon on August 31, 2012, 06:53:46 pm
I can now safely say that Band of Misfits and Fortress are ridiculous and are in the top 5 of their respective price groups.

Woah, that is bold but lets not get carried away. I think they are both like to be very strong, but top 5? That's crazy talk. Think about the current top 5's and tell me which one these displace.

EDIT: To add to this, I think they both have the potential to be powerhouses on the right board. But the board dependence is going to make them weaker than the top 5s which are almost always going to play strong.

Fortress probably looks ridiculous if you're playing heavy DA games, where there is plenty of tfb (Procession) and trash-as-cost (Death Cart).  But there are many boards without trashing where Fortress is just a plain Village.  It also doesn't do anything for boards that just have no frills trashing, e.g. Chapel.

Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: werothegreat on August 31, 2012, 11:27:52 pm
Played a couple games.  Looting... really slows the game down.  Like, really.  It's usually a lot faster than Curses, it seems.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: clb on August 31, 2012, 11:53:30 pm
In the Alchemy preset kingdom with DA where there is Scrying Pool and Cultist - the Vineyards just love having tons of Ruins.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: brokoli on September 01, 2012, 05:01:49 am
Yes, fortress is not that good. Probably as good as the other 4$ villages. Sometimes, it's incredibly powerful but when the only trasher is a thing like trading post (which is not a bad card), then fortress is simply a weak village.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: jonts26 on September 01, 2012, 12:40:29 pm
Yes, fortress is not that good. Probably as good as the other 4$ villages. Sometimes, it's incredibly powerful but when the only trasher is a thing like trading post (which is not a bad card), then fortress is simply a weak village.

I think Fortress is going to be really good. It's no better than vanilla village more often than not (the price difference makes little difference), but when it is good, it can be game warpingly powerful. And you know, vanilla village is still a pretty good card. Honestly, right now I'd place Fortress as the #2 $4 village behind Worker's. And I might even place it ahead of that in a heavy dark ages game.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: HiveMindEmulator on September 01, 2012, 02:02:25 pm
So most of the $4 villages are often just equivalent to a vanilla Village, but they have situations in which the stand out. Farming Village is good against deck attacks. This rarely occurs, but when it does, it's pretty important. Fortress is good with TfB. This probably occurs at least as often, and is not only pretty important, but like stupid good. It's kind of the only $4 village that can be more than just a support card.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: jonts26 on September 01, 2012, 02:16:49 pm
You know, I completely forgot about Wandering Minstrel when I made my $4 village statement. I think that's likely to be super good in a lot of engines as long as you dont rely on big treasures for your income. So not as game changing as Fortress when it's good but still very strong in a lot of situations that it could very well be better than that or Worker's on average. But man, that +buy from worker's is often just so key it's hard to bump it down in my mind. 
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: ehunt on September 01, 2012, 04:21:00 pm
wandering minstrel is just so good. count is not bad - gaining a duchy is really strong in the end-game, as we know from tournament games. it's a weird card in that it's best at the beginning and end of the game and worst in the middle.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: werothegreat on September 01, 2012, 05:42:15 pm
Squire is not as good as we thought it would be.  The lack of +Cards just really really hurts it.  In a Ruins/Curses game, most often we used Squire for the Silver (which we never ended up seeing).
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: jonts26 on September 01, 2012, 05:50:47 pm
Squire is not as good as we thought it would be.  The lack of +Cards just really really hurts it.  In a Ruins/Curses game, most often we used Squire for the Silver (which we never ended up seeing).

It's rare without decent trashing to use any village in a heavy curse slog. You just won't line things up often enough. So yeah, a non drawing village is going to be pretty bad there. But hey, +$1 gain a silver is still pretty decent for big money, and really good for alt VP. But if you have even a slightly streamlined deck with card draw elsewhere, the lack of +1 card won't hurt much. And because it's so cheap you can over-invest a little to make it more likely that things fire. Also it comes with +buy which engines usually need. And it gives +2 buys so it's unlikely that you'll need to use the buy option more than once.  And all of this ignores the on trash clause, which is more niche, but potentially very strong.

Anyway, I'm still going with one of the best $2 cards.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Beyond Awesome on September 01, 2012, 06:36:12 pm
You know, I completely forgot about Wandering Minstrel when I made my $4 village statement. I think that's likely to be super good in a lot of engines as long as you dont rely on big treasures for your income. So not as game changing as Fortress when it's good but still very strong in a lot of situations that it could very well be better than that or Worker's on average. But man, that +buy from worker's is often just so key it's hard to bump it down in my mind.

I rank Wandering Minstrel ahead of Fortress for now. From the games I've played with it, it really helps get to your engine components quicker.Actually, though, DA offers a few cards that help you get to your key cards quicker like Scavenger and Sage. Minstrel also makes it possible to build an engine in a cursing game, which was still possible, but it makes it easier to accomplish. Though, I have a feeling Minstrel is quite weak in a Ruins game.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: werothegreat on September 01, 2012, 10:56:21 pm
Sage is awesome in the early game, and becomes less so once you start greening - it essentially turns into a cantrip with nothing.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Beyond Awesome on September 01, 2012, 11:02:27 pm
Sage is awesome in the early game, and becomes less so once you start greening - it essentially turns into a cantrip with nothing.

This is true, but that early game matters a lot.
Title: Re: The Bold Predictions Thread
Post by: Schneau on June 13, 2013, 06:58:44 pm
Rebuild - I think this will be one of the most powerful cards in the set. Think about for a second, that it takes basically 6 plays of this card to get your starting estates into provinces (and it's non-terminal!). And then probably you can buy duchies relatively easily and turn them into provinces fairly quick. I mean, 2-3 of these, then buy only green will be a pretty good BM strategy, on the speed order of JoaT. Yep, I'm going to make that claim. Now, you can run the risk of drawing these with too much green (you need it to be in the discard pile). But this also works really well with decently good non-drawing terminals at the sub-$5 level (monument, militia, maybe swindler). And it's going to be very nice with sifters like warehouse. And it's really resilient to just about every kind of attack. Finally, it's a nice anti-engine card, because you burn through VP as you go, lowering the 50% of VP game-win threshhold fairly nicely.

Since we are making Guilds Bold Predictions (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=8439.0), I decided to look through the DA bold predictions to see how they've turned out. This one stood out to me as spot-on, given the recent articles and discussions of Rebuild.