Dominion Strategy Forum

Miscellaneous => Forum Games => Mafia Game Threads => Topic started by: Voltgloss on July 14, 2012, 01:24:38 pm

Title: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 14, 2012, 01:24:38 pm
Welcome to Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition!

If you would like a link to the spectator discussion QuickTopic, please send me a PM.  Thanks.

The Game Is Over - Mafia Wins!
Players Signed Up:
1 - Robz888 (DEAD; killed Night 1 - Town Jailkeeper)
2 - Eevee (endgamed - Town Vanilla)
3 - Galzria (DEAD; lynched Day 2 - Town Vanilla)
4 - Young Nick (WINNER - Mafia Goon)
5 - manda2014 (DEAD; lynched Day 3 - Town Vanilla)
6 - timchen (DEAD; killed Night 2 - Town Vanilla)
7 - Captain_Frisk (DEAD; lynched Day 1 - Town Vanilla)
8 - shark_bait (endgamed - Town Vanilla)
9 - pingpongsam (WINNER - Mafia Rolecop)

Mafia Ruleset

Game Rules:

General Gameplay and Etiquette:
1. You may not quote private Moderator-supplied information (either real or fabricated) of any kind.  Paraphrasing (for role claims, etc.) is acceptable.
2. There is to be NO personal communication outside of the forum postings unless your role PM specifically allows it.  Mafia members may communicate at night and during the confirmation stage.
3. If you have a role with a Night action your choices are due to me by the posted deadline (generally 48 hours from Night start).  If I do not receive your choice via PM by the posted deadline you will forfeit your actions.  In case of multiple submissions, the last valid one before the deadline will be used.
4. Roles with Night actions will not be able to submit an action on Night 0 (i.e. during the confirmation stage).
5. Any player with a Night action may instead submit a “No Action” PM to let the Mod know that you do not want to perform your expected action that Night phase.
6. As a general rule you should aim for one post every 48 hours, minimum, to keep the game moving.

Voting, Deadlines, and Player Death:
1. A simple majority (rounded up) of all living members must agree on one person for a lynch to occur prior to deadline.
2. Once you have reached a simple majority no further unvoting will change someone’s fate.  Further votes will also be ignored.
3. Once a player is lynched the game enters twilight until I post a death scene; all players including the one who was lynched may continue to post during twilight.
4. Please submit votes as: Vote: PlayerName.  Votes will NOT be counted if they are not bold or do not follow this syntax!  Obvious abbreviations or nicknames will be counted so long as they are unambiguous.
5. Please submit vote revocations as either Unvote: PlayerName or Unvote. Unvotes are not necessary before changing votes.
6. You may Vote: No Lynch - a simple majority of these vote types are required to send the game to Night phase without a lynch.
7. This game will generally have 2 week deadlines.  If a player or No Lynch does not have a simple majority at deadline, no lynch will occur, and the game will go into night.
8. Once you are killed (either via lynch or night kill) you may no longer post. This means that you do not even get a “Bah” post. The dead in this game are silent.
9. Do not edit or delete posts.  We don't want some players having more information than others.  If you want to clarify posts, feel free to double post.

Miscellaneous/Mechanics:
1. Bold, blue text is reserved for the Mod.  No invisible/small text is allowed, nor is cryptography.
2. If you have an issue/problem with the game, please PM the Mod privately.  Do not post issues/complaints in the game thread.
3. The Mod may make mistakes - please point out any mistakes gently.  Mistakes will be corrected where possible, but sometimes mistakes are made that cannot be reversed.  These will stand as final to be commiserated over after the game.
4. Please bold all requests to the Mod so that they don’t get missed.
5. Prods of missing players will be issued automatically after 72 hours of no activity or upon request after 48 hours of no activity.  A prodded player has 48 hours to respond or risks replacement.  A player who has been prodded 3 times is subject to replacement without further notice.
6. Rule violations will be dealt with according to their severity, up to and including a Modkill.
7. If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 48-hour period please post a notice to that effect in the thread.  Treat this game as a commitment.  Be considerate – don’t leave us hanging.

The Golden Rule:

Please remember that this is a game and your main objective is to have fun! Be considerate of each other, don’t get personal, and enjoy the game.

Helpful Links:

Game Setup
Game Setup information:

The setup used for this newbie game is one of the ones given below. The setup is randomly determined, but is one of the 6 given here:

1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Doctor.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Doctor, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Doctor.

There will always be two mafia players and seven town players.

Here are all the role PMs that can be in the game:

-----------------------------------------

Mafia Goon
Welcome to Mafia VII!

You are a Mafia, a Mafia Goon.

Your partner is __________, a Mafia Rolecop.

You may speak with your partner during the pre-game and night phases at this QuickTopic link: [QuickTopic link].
(Any other communication outside of the thread with any other players is prohibited.)

Each night, you or your partner may send me the name of a player you would like to kill.

You win if the Mafia comprise at least half the town, or if nothing can prevent the same from happening.

-----------------------------------------

Mafia Rolecop
Welcome to Mafia VII!

You are a Mafia, a Mafia Rolecop.

Your partner is __________, a Mafia Goon.

You may speak with your partner during the pre-game and night phases at this QuickTopic link: [QuickTopic link].
(Any other communication outside of the thread with any other players is prohibited.)

Each night, you or your partner may send me the name of a player you would like to kill.

Each night, you may also send me the name of a fellow player. You will be told their role name.

You win if the Mafia comprise at least half the town, or if nothing can prevent the same from happening.

-----------------------------------------

Town Doctor
Welcome to Mafia VII!

You are a Townie, a Town Doctor.

Each night, you may send me the name of a fellow player. You will protect that player from death.
You may not target yourself.

You win when all of the Mafia are dead.

-----------------------------------------

Town Cop
Welcome to Mafia VII!

You are a Townie, a Town Cop.

Each night, you may send me the name of a fellow player. You will be informed if that player is town or mafia.

You win when all of the Mafia are dead.

-----------------------------------------

Town Jailkeeper
Welcome to Mafia VII!

You are a Townie, a Town Jailkeeper.

Each night, you may send me the name of a fellow player. That player will be protected from death, and will perform no night actions. 
You may not target yourself.

You win when all of the Mafia are dead.

-----------------------------------------

Town Vanilla
Welcome to Mafia VII!

You are a Townie, a Vanilla Townie.

Your weapon is your vote.  You have no night actions.

You win when all of the Mafia are dead.

-----------------------------------------

TO CLARIFY, I AM NOT A MODERATOR OF F.DS IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM.  IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS GAME, I AM MODERATING THAT THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED AND HIDDEN ACTIONS ARE COMPLETED PROPERLY.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (PRE-GAME UNDERWAY!)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 14, 2012, 01:26:04 pm
Role PMs will be sent shortly.  Please confirm in-thread that you have received your Role PM.

The game will begin later this afternoon/evening (forum time) after at least 8 players have confirmed in-thread.

EDIT:  All Role PMs have been sent.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (PRE-GAME UNDERWAY!)
Post by: Galzria on July 14, 2012, 01:46:04 pm
Confirmed
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (PRE-GAME UNDERWAY!)
Post by: Young Nick on July 14, 2012, 01:46:20 pm
Confirm
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (PRE-GAME UNDERWAY!)
Post by: manda2014 on July 14, 2012, 01:47:14 pm
Confirmed
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (PRE-GAME UNDERWAY!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 14, 2012, 01:56:36 pm
/Confirm

Galz is not a noob.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (PRE-GAME UNDERWAY!)
Post by: Galzria on July 14, 2012, 01:58:05 pm
/Confirm

Galz is not a noob.

Yes I am! Shh!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (PRE-GAME UNDERWAY!)
Post by: timchen on July 14, 2012, 02:15:41 pm
Confirmed.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (PRE-GAME UNDERWAY!)
Post by: Robz888 on July 14, 2012, 02:25:31 pm
Confirm.ed.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (PRE-GAME UNDERWAY!)
Post by: eHalcyon on July 14, 2012, 02:38:39 pm
So this is the newbie game, right?  I hope all the newbies are unlynchable bulletproof. ;)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (PRE-GAME UNDERWAY!)
Post by: Young Nick on July 14, 2012, 04:41:06 pm
Peeps needa check in. I want to get started!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (PRE-GAME UNDERWAY!)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 14, 2012, 05:16:48 pm
Confirmed
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (PRE-GAME UNDERWAY!)
Post by: shark_bait on July 14, 2012, 05:33:52 pm
Confirmed
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (PRE-GAME UNDERWAY!)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 14, 2012, 07:18:51 pm
That makes 8 confirmed, so let's get this started up!

------------

Autumn.  A time of Harvest, celebration, and good will amongst all.

Which makes it all the more aggravating for the Mafia to have picked autumn to sneak into your sleepy little Hamlet. 

It was the local Fortune Teller who predicted their arrival first.  Telling the Tournament champion's future, she turned over the Death card, the Mafia card, and the Nine of Noses.  All the more puzzling as her standard pack didn't even have a Death card.

And then your noses all turned up stolen.  Someone suggested lynching the local Jester, because that's always a great idea.  But when they went to his hovel, they found him sprawled on the floor, a sharpened Horn of Plenty having been used to ignominious - and fatal - effect.

The Mafia are amongst you.  They have your noses.  Will you get your noses back?  Or die, noseless and forlorn?  Only time will tell.

Day 1 Start!

Not Voting {9}:
Robz888, Eevee, Galzria, Young Nick, manda2014, timchen, Captain_Frisk, shark_bait, pingpongsam

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Young Nick on July 14, 2012, 07:37:12 pm
Uh, I'd say this nose theme...it's...it's interesting?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: timchen on July 14, 2012, 07:37:39 pm
Let's start talking!

frisk, how do you manage to write so many lengthy posts while being SK yourself in MIV? That is something quite remarkable! Also, I still don't understand why you shoot axxle n3.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Young Nick on July 14, 2012, 07:38:02 pm
So many noses. First order of business:
Who's Jewish?

(please don't hate me for stereotyping)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 14, 2012, 08:34:15 pm
Uh, I'd say this nose theme...it's...it's interesting?

It's from the Cornucopia box flavor.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 14, 2012, 08:39:36 pm
@
frisk, how do you manage to write so many lengthy posts while being SK yourself in MIV? That is something quite remarkable! Also, I still don't understand why you shoot axxle n3.

Hey!  In front of a real keyboard now - so I can respond.

First your question: I speak english, and can touch type - so banging out long posts isn't so hard.  I also work in front of my computer most days, so i have good opportunities for big posts.

Second: Can't discuss M6, but playing Serial Killer was not substantially different (for me) than playing town.  I always wanted to scumhunt, and most of the time I wanted the mafia to die.

Third: Mafia IV discussion belongs in the Mafia IV Thread

Fourth: I really enjoyed how you opened this thread with a very subtle reminder to everyone how I was able to play scum so effectively.

Vote: timechen - because i believe in early voting - but this is the first time in any game that my first vote had anything resembling an argument behind it.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: timchen on July 14, 2012, 08:54:26 pm
Ok, I'll follow my MIV question over there.

You know, the hard thing is not to compose a long post like that. I also have a few long posts when I was arguing with WW. The problem is, given the additional information you have, the willingness to spend the time writing things you know are just BS... that is, in all honesty, beyond me. I admit I didn't check back to see how many points you have made has assumed someone else as SK, but I think there is at least some.

Hmm, were you trying to shift the focus from the scum-playing effectiveness to language and computer abilities?

I'll follow suit.
Vote: Captain_Frisk
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 14, 2012, 09:05:22 pm
Checking in, but out at dinner/watching baseball game at bar. Am lurking on mobile.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 14, 2012, 09:11:58 pm
OMGUS!

Responded to timchen over in M4 discussion.  Going to go watch movie with wife.

As for scum playing effectiveness - I still lost... I couldn't even convince them with a LEGIT serial killer cliam... uggh.

So I see 3 new players - Manda, Young Nick, and shark_bait.  How many of the other games have you followed?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: manda2014 on July 14, 2012, 09:29:47 pm
I started following Mafia right at the beginning of Mafia III, and I followed III and IV really closely. I went back and read a little of I and II, but I'll admit I didn't get all the way through either of them. I'm following Role Madness right now and super excited to finally be playing!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 14, 2012, 09:39:23 pm
I started following Mafia right at the beginning of Mafia III, and I followed III and IV really closely. I went back and read a little of I and II, but I'll admit I didn't get all the way through either of them. I'm following Role Madness right now and super excited to finally be playing!

I've seen Manda lurking ALL of the Mafia threads, quite often. (S?)He should be quite informed on how this show goes. :)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: manda2014 on July 14, 2012, 09:40:56 pm
I started following Mafia right at the beginning of Mafia III, and I followed III and IV really closely. I went back and read a little of I and II, but I'll admit I didn't get all the way through either of them. I'm following Role Madness right now and super excited to finally be playing!

I've seen Manda lurking ALL of the Mafia threads, quite often. (S?)He should be quite informed on how this show goes. :)

She :)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Young Nick on July 14, 2012, 10:15:31 pm
I lurked most of I and II. I briefly looked over the others, mostly at the final days and post-game commentary.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Robz888 on July 15, 2012, 01:36:59 am
I started following Mafia right at the beginning of Mafia III, and I followed III and IV really closely. I went back and read a little of I and II, but I'll admit I didn't get all the way through either of them. I'm following Role Madness right now and super excited to finally be playing!

I've seen Manda lurking ALL of the Mafia threads, quite often. (S?)He should be quite informed on how this show goes. :)

She :)

Ah, a confirmed female. Unlike Cayvie, who is an unconfirmed female.

Playing the original setup again should be interesting. The key thing here is for the power role people--whoever they are--to be on their toes. It's pretty self-explanatory, but the Cop wants to investigate the suspicious people. Like, if we lynch Galzria first round, and he flipped town, the Cop might consider investigating the person who most strongly pressed for Galzria's head, or the person who gave the death blow, or something. Or the Cop might conclude that the mafia wisely stayed off this town wagon to gain credibility, and then you would investigate someone who stayed away. The Cop wants to keep his/her identity a secret, but you have to weigh that at some point if you have info that helps us, it's wiser to say. That way a possible protective role knows to help you out, and you don't carry any secrets to your grave.

Doctor is very powerful, and a little easier. Protect the people who are vulnerable--the other power role, if he/she exists and you know who it is--but be smart about it. If you think the mafia thinks you're saving X, you don't actually need to save X. Remember that it's super important to keep your identity a secret. The only person you can't protect is yourself.

Jailkeeper should also protect the vulnerable, but if we are down to one remaining mafia, the Jailkeeper is even more effective as a person who can jail the mafia and stop the kill. In the first Forum Mafia game, I was the Jailkeeper. By process of elimination, I was pretty sure who the last mafia person was going into the final night. I jailed him, preventing his kill, and the next morning I knew exactly who the mafia was.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Eevee on July 15, 2012, 04:44:13 am
Checking in here! On ipad still, so cutting this short: I dont like what timchen is doing, but not FOS'ing yet because even though I think its scummy, it might not be mafia because iirc he has been like that in every game.

And +1 to what robzie said, town power roles are HUGE in this setup. A thing to remember: we will likely have mafia claining them too.

Oh and I really like having a (confirmed) woman on board :)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 15, 2012, 09:29:10 am
Vote Count 1-1

timchen (1): Captain_Frisk
Captain_Frisk (1): timchen

Not Voting {7}: Robz888, Eevee, Galzria, Young Nick, manda2014, shark_bait, pingpongsam

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 15, 2012, 09:29:40 am
It is certainly interesting to know what PRs exist up front. I think it makes analyses much more clear and gives some direction to decision making even if actual role holders remain unknown. It certainly appears to my relatively unexperienced eyes that Town has the starting advantage so we need to use this advantage to make an early ID on one of the scum. The question is how best to do this.

The obvious perfect D1 play is to have the Doctor protecting our Cop while the Jailkeeper protects a VT. Coordinating this play early while maintaining secret identities is the trick but as each day passes we will either randomly lose our PRs or the scum cops will ID them and take them out systematically. In this way JK begins as the most expendable PR. However, if we manage to knock down one of the scum the JK suddenly has the ability to ID the remaining scum member just by randomly selecting him to stop night action. Each day our Cop IDs one of us as Town the JK narrows his list of random picks.

So, in summary, Town has an advantage and played well can easily maintain it even if scum manage to hit a PR each night but coordination of the needed information will be paramount. With this information in play I'm not entirely sure a D1 lynch is such a great idea but I am entirely open to an opposing view. A D1 Town lynch seems to be sacrificing the advantage entirely too early while we seem to keep a significant night action advantage with 3 night actions to the scum team's 1. It would be a real travesty to accidentaly mislynch one of our PRs.

So, based on this early analysis I am
Vote: No Lynch
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 15, 2012, 09:59:17 am
Umm Sam.  We don't have all of the prs.  We have at most 2, and possibly only 1.  I'm on iPad, but no lynch is a terrible idea.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 15, 2012, 10:16:51 am
Did I ever tell you the part about where I failed reading comprehension but aced essay writing?

Unvote
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Young Nick on July 15, 2012, 10:53:34 am
Also...we aren't going to mislynch a PR because worst case scenario is that they claim before they get hammered. Obviously an outed PR is worse than a closeted PR, but in general both are better than a dead PR. Or...

closet PR>outed PR>dead PR

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 15, 2012, 10:57:19 am
I place no faith in claimed PR's in the face of the noose.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Eevee on July 15, 2012, 11:05:49 am
I place no faith in claimed PR's in the face of the noose.
It gives us a ton of information (basicly, either the guy is legit or scum. VT's never fakeclaim).
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: manda2014 on July 15, 2012, 11:09:07 am
Posting from iPhone and busy with family for the next several hours. I'll be reading but probably not posting anything terribly long until much later, but checking in now to say two things:

1) this has already been said, but I'll go ahead and reiterate: no-lynch seems to me like a really bad idea. With only a couple power roles, all no-lynch does is give the mafia a chance for a head start. And, as Young Nick already stated, if it becomes necessary, a power role can always claim. Not the best situation, but much better than killing them off.

2) I agree with Eevee that timchen's posts seem a bit off, but this early, that doesn't necessarily mean much. Early voting may be good to get conversation going, but I'm really wary of trusting initial reads.

Longer post coming this afternoon, I'm sure.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 15, 2012, 11:50:25 am
I place no faith in claimed PR's in the face of the noose.
It gives us a ton of information (basicly, either the guy is legit or scum. VT's never fakeclaim).

Oh, I agree but I still place no faith in the claim at the time. Scum or Town will both claim to save their necks. The analysis after the fact is where the faith is properly placed.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 15, 2012, 11:53:01 am
1) this has already been said, but I'll go ahead and reiterate: no-lynch seems to me like a really bad idea. With only a couple power roles, all no-lynch does is give the mafia a chance for a head start....

Strongly agree, my analysis and early vote were based on a flawed comprehension of the starting game state. A lynch is strongly desired with any of the possible starting game starts outlined in the Mod post.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Eevee on July 15, 2012, 11:58:03 am
I place no faith in claimed PR's in the face of the noose.
It gives us a ton of information (basicly, either the guy is legit or scum. VT's never fakeclaim).

Oh, I agree but I still place no faith in the claim at the time. Scum or Town will both claim to save their necks. The analysis after the fact is where the faith is properly placed.

Well, placing no faith is certainly stupid. Town wont lie to save his/her neck, and we certainly arent lynching anyone who claims until we have investigated the situation some. Yes, that means last minute claims will always buy scum at least one day but nothing can really be done about that, lynching power roles is catastrophic for town. Its also pretty hard to make a believable PR claim (you often have said or done something earlier to make it not believable).
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 15, 2012, 12:16:38 pm
I think maybe you are confusing "placing no faith" with "refusing to lynch". I find the 2 mutually exclusive.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Young Nick on July 15, 2012, 12:20:46 pm
Could you flesh out your thoughts a bit more, pingpongsam? You really won't not lynch the person who claims before there's a hammer?

So if you are going to hammer someone, their claiming will do nothing to prevent you?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Robz888 on July 15, 2012, 02:51:55 pm
It is certainly interesting to know what PRs exist up front. I think it makes analyses much more clear and gives some direction to decision making even if actual role holders remain unknown. It certainly appears to my relatively unexperienced eyes that Town has the starting advantage so we need to use this advantage to make an early ID on one of the scum. The question is how best to do this.

The obvious perfect D1 play is to have the Doctor protecting our Cop while the Jailkeeper protects a VT. Coordinating this play early while maintaining secret identities is the trick but as each day passes we will either randomly lose our PRs or the scum cops will ID them and take them out systematically. In this way JK begins as the most expendable PR. However, if we manage to knock down one of the scum the JK suddenly has the ability to ID the remaining scum member just by randomly selecting him to stop night action. Each day our Cop IDs one of us as Town the JK narrows his list of random picks.

So, in summary, Town has an advantage and played well can easily maintain it even if scum manage to hit a PR each night but coordination of the needed information will be paramount. With this information in play I'm not entirely sure a D1 lynch is such a great idea but I am entirely open to an opposing view. A D1 Town lynch seems to be sacrificing the advantage entirely too early while we seem to keep a significant night action advantage with 3 night actions to the scum team's 1. It would be a real travesty to accidentaly mislynch one of our PRs.

So, based on this early analysis I am
Vote: No Lynch

As you've later realized, this doesn't work because we don't know which 2 of the following 4 roles we have: 1 Jailkeeper, 1 Cop, 1 Doctor, 1 extra townie.

If we knew that we had a Doctor and a Jailkeeper, the winning strategy is actually known: the Cop should reveal himself immediately, and the Doctor should stay quiet and protect him. But because we don't know this, everyone should remain quiet. And we probably should lynch, or at least try to lynch, in order to gather info for Night 1 and Day 2.

If I seriously doubt that the lynch target is scum, I will not kill for the sake of killing someone. But that's just how I play. Most people seem to prefer killing anybody over nobody on Day 1, and I can understand that.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Robz888 on July 15, 2012, 02:52:52 pm
In the above paragraph, I actually made that confusing. The line that reads "If we knew that we had a Doctor and Jailkeeper" should read "If we knew that we had a Doctor and Cop"
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Young Nick on July 15, 2012, 03:13:55 pm
Well, someone has to do some accusing so that someone else gets defensive so some actual talk comes of it. Until then, we all sit here, waiting for someone else to make the first move.

So I'll start things off, just to get people thinking.
I'm wary of the experienced players. Namely Robz, Galz, Frisk, and Eevee. More so than anyone else Robz because he has already had two "coaching" posts. I understand he's teaching us the ropes and such, but I want to make sure no one starts to blindly follow everything he says once we start getting into accusations.

I guess I'm saying I want everybody to form their own opinions and not just listen to the experienced players. If one or two of the aforementioned four are scum, they could "coach" us to their own victory.

So, I'll give a super-premature vote, my first ever in a Mafia game: Vote: Robz888
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 15, 2012, 03:53:40 pm
That last time RobZ gave helpful advice - he actually was giving helpful advice.  Most of what he put up there is easily search able on the interwebs.  Basically - the recommended setup for noobs was Doctor + Cop vs. Mafia... until some bright people broke it.  With the random setup, the cop can't claim because he doesn't know he will be protected, and it keeps things interesting.

I much prefer the RobZ approach to helping newer players understand the game than say the popsofctown approach, in which he called the rest of his teammates idiots.

I'm going to throw a finger of suspicion your way - because hoping that everyone disregards accepted strategy is a pretty scummy wish.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 15, 2012, 04:03:37 pm
I haven't said a whole lot thusfar, so let me at least take the time to mention what I look for in scum:

They have very little incentive to lie. Unless they come under extreme pressure, they're likely to play very similar to town. Everybody is going to start getting vibes from everyone else and it's not difficult to tuck yourself away as scum. Hmm, perhaps I should be more clear:

As town, the 8 people around you are all equally as suspicious to start the game. When you accuse someone, there is... A natural amount of hedge, of, "I really don't know". It's often accused that hedging is a scumtell, but in reality they know for certain that their accusations can't miss (town). Because of this, there's a lack of natural incentive to hedge. So I like to look for people who's "I'm really not sure" comes across as disingenuous. It's a lot harder to force feelings that should just be natural.

That said (and moving back into the first paragraph), unless they are under pressure, scum won't lie very often. If/When they start to attack someone it's usually because that person has done something to appear scummy. I use Hedging as an example above for this reason. "You suspected X, and now you don't?" - "You voted for Y when it was "safe", then unvoted when he got extra votes? lolscumbuddies" - etc. They're arguments that are easy to make, but they aren't really scummy behaviors. As town, don't let yourself get drawn into making bad, or irrelevant, arguments - and be on the watch for Mafia doing so.

They may have the advantage in that they can't be wrong, but we can use that to our own benefit. Mafiahunt, don't scumhunt. I also like to look for where actions don't meet words. Someone who indicates a desire to act one way, then doing another.

...And, this post really lost it's flow. That's what happens when you write every other sentence after some sort of distraction. Oh well. I think the gist of what I'm saying comes through. Mafia have a huge advantage in how "not to apper scummy" over the town, so it's important to find Mafia trends and behavior, not scummy trends and behavior.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Young Nick on July 15, 2012, 04:05:05 pm
What I'm trying to say is that D1 is helpful advice, but D2 he might abuse the fact that we trust him. Clearly what he has said so far is helpful. But maybe it won't always be. Mind you, I'm mainly trying to stir up discussion. When, or should I say if, he gives a good defense showing how and why he won't do what I am afraid he'll do, I'll gladly unvote. Until then, vote stands.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 15, 2012, 04:06:21 pm
(The third paragraph above switched from referencing town, to referencing scum after "it's accused hedging is a scumtell...)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 15, 2012, 04:12:44 pm
Oh - @Young Nick - sorry if my tone is a little harsh.  RobZ is always scummy as heck - and I'm a big fan of early voting as a discussion starter.  I'm not a big fan of casual voting as lynches near.

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Young Nick on July 15, 2012, 04:16:35 pm
@Galz (and kinda C_F), could you explain the difference between scum and Mafia?
Mafia means Mafia, I figure.
But scum just means someone who is lying or being otherwise deceitful?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Robz888 on July 15, 2012, 04:26:09 pm
At the risk of doing more coaching, "scum" means "not aligned with the town." All mafia are scum, but not all scum are mafia. A Serial Killer is scum, for example.

"Scummy" behavior is a synonym for "suspicious" or "indicating that you are a mafia/SK affiliation".
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 15, 2012, 04:29:06 pm
@Galz (and kinda C_F), could you explain the difference between scum and Mafia?
Mafia means Mafia, I figure.
But scum just means someone who is lying or being otherwise deceitful?

Scum, or scummy behavior, is basically like... Suspicious. People who make you raise your eyebrows and go "wait a second...". Hedging (showing uncertainty) is a very scummy behavior, but it's not necessarily a Mafia one (which was my point before). The Mafia actually have an easier time of not appearing suspicious because there is a natural level of confidence in their play. Thus their uncertainty is forcedand possible (if difficult) to pick up.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Robz888 on July 15, 2012, 04:30:20 pm
Nick, I don't think I'll be able to mislead the newbies via coaching. Galzria, Frisk, and Eevee should be able to point out such behavior. And as for everybody else, I'm sure you're smart people. I'll just come off looking like Pops in MIV if I try to play referee. So those first two posts of mine were just pointing out info that I think was important, especially given PPS's confusion.

But I don't mind that you have voted for me, either.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Young Nick on July 15, 2012, 05:18:46 pm
Defended and thus backing up my claim.

Unvote

Again, I don't mind guidance, as long as you aren't accusing while "coaching."

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 15, 2012, 05:19:48 pm
Where's Fuzzy (Eevee)?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 15, 2012, 05:50:30 pm
I find coaching a pretty pro-town thing to do because it minimizes confusion and because as a new player I can use it.

I personally find Robz coaching in this game to be the most town vibe I've received. Galzria's backup coaching is vibing good as well.

Young Nick's early vote feels kind of scummy but it certainly jives with new play and just trying to get things started so I'm letting it slide... for now.

Captain_Frisk's quick FoS for just getting the game off the ground, however... well, that feels the scummiest of all the plays so far so I point the Fos at C_F.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: manda2014 on July 15, 2012, 06:11:04 pm
Coaching, in and of itself, is very pro-town I think, given that this is a newbie game. What I think we really need to be careful of, though, is letting the more experienced players run the show. It's one thing to give advice/information on things such as what various terms mean or how the various available roles work, but it's not a long jump from trusting robz, galz, etc. on generic game advice to sub-consciously trusting their analysis and intuitions because of their experience. IF any of them are scum (and this is not an FOS), they know this and won't hesitate to use it to their advantage. That's not to say coaching is bad, obviously; the whole point of a newbie game is so less experienced players can learn to play in a game that's a little less intense than, say, Mafia IV.... just be careful not to let yourself trust everything someone with experience says.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: manda2014 on July 15, 2012, 06:16:56 pm
I place no faith in claimed PR's in the face of the noose.
It gives us a ton of information (basicly, either the guy is legit or scum. VT's never fakeclaim).

Oh, I agree but I still place no faith in the claim at the time. Scum or Town will both claim to save their necks. The analysis after the fact is where the faith is properly placed.

Well, placing no faith is certainly stupid. Town wont lie to save his/her neck, and we certainly arent lynching anyone who claims until we have investigated the situation some. Yes, that means last minute claims will always buy scum at least one day but nothing can really be done about that, lynching power roles is catastrophic for town. Its also pretty hard to make a believable PR claim (you often have said or done something earlier to make it not believable).

Trusting a claim (or at least, not lynching the claimer) this early is the best move. Like eevee said, lynching a power role, ESPECIALLY this early, could spell disaster for the town. Towards the end of the game, when the town is in crisis. This may not hold true. If the town had ignored DSell's fakeclaim in Mafia IV, they very well might have won...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Young Nick on July 15, 2012, 06:17:54 pm
manda says my thoughts better than I do. The subconscious trusting is the point I was trying to get at. I guess I don't see coaching as pro- or anti-town. It just feels...neutral. Like something I would have read off the wiki page.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: manda2014 on July 15, 2012, 06:19:50 pm
manda says my thoughts better than I do. The subconscious trusting is the point I was trying to get at. I guess I don't see coaching as pro- or anti-town. It just feels...neutral. Like something I would have read off the wiki page.

Exactly. It's when it goes beyond something you could find on a wiki page that everyone really needs to be on their guard.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: shark_bait on July 15, 2012, 10:08:30 pm
Just wanted to say, yes I'm here.  I've been moving to a different apartment all day.  I'm rather exhausted now, will be around more tomorrow.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Young Nick on July 16, 2012, 12:31:20 am
Yeah, I'm not going to be able to consistently post during the week. Maybe an afternoon post and/or a few night checks, I guess.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: manda2014 on July 16, 2012, 12:35:02 am
Man, after following IV and seeing how fast posts accumulated there, this feels soooooo slow. Not necessarily a bad thing, of course, but it's gonna take some getting used to. XD
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 16, 2012, 12:38:08 am
I remember playing M-II and thinking how blazingly fast it moved, and how much information there was to compile on the final day. Boy how times have changed! This is such a relaxing pace now. ;D
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 16, 2012, 12:42:35 am
Hey Frisk, when you were planning you're pregame strategy with your partner, what did you guys determine to be the best course of action? While you're answering that, wanna tell me if your teammate is Eevee or Cayvie? I'm honestly not sure.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 16, 2012, 12:44:03 am
Wow. Mixup. Eevee or Timchen* (don't have multiple games on the mind)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Robz888 on July 16, 2012, 12:45:43 am
Hey Frisk, when you were planning you're pregame strategy with your partner, what did you guys determine to be the best course of action? While you're answering that, wanna tell me if your teammate is Eevee or Cayvie? I'm honestly not sure.

Oh, I remember getting yelled at for doing this, Mr. Galzria.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 16, 2012, 12:50:39 am
Hey Frisk, when you were planning you're pregame strategy with your partner, what did you guys determine to be the best course of action? While you're answering that, wanna tell me if your teammate is Eevee or Cayvie? I'm honestly not sure.

Oh, I remember getting yelled at for doing this, Mr. Galzria.

I never yelled at you! I said that I don't think it's anywhere NEAR as effective on the forums as real life. It's not my preferred method, but it is a method. I just have yet to see anything of value come from it. Doesn't mean it isn't worth trying however. ;D
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: manda2014 on July 16, 2012, 01:12:13 am
Hey Frisk, when you were planning you're pregame strategy with your partner, what did you guys determine to be the best course of action? While you're answering that, wanna tell me if your teammate is Eevee or Cayvie? I'm honestly not sure.

Oh, I remember getting yelled at for doing this, Mr. Galzria.

I never yelled at you! I said that I don't think it's anywhere NEAR as effective on the forums as real life. It's not my preferred method, but it is a method. I just have yet to see anything of value come from it. Doesn't mean it isn't worth trying however. ;D

Hey, anything's worth trying! And I got a chuckle out of it, at any rate.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Eevee on July 16, 2012, 05:32:13 am
Where's Fuzzy (Eevee)?
I'm here. Not much to say yet, timchen is the only one who has stood out to me. You seem to attack me one way or another in every game we are in together, why is that?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 16, 2012, 07:24:12 am
Where's Fuzzy (Eevee)?
I'm here. Not much to say yet, timchen is the only one who has stood out to me. You seem to attack me one way or another in every game we are in together, why is that?

I don't trust Pokemon.

Anyway, wait, I attacked you here? Edgy a bit? I asked where you were...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 16, 2012, 07:29:28 am
Hey Frisk, when you were planning you're pregame strategy with your partner, what did you guys determine to be the best course of action? While you're answering that, wanna tell me if your teammate is Eevee or Cayvie? I'm honestly not sure.

I thought you and I agreed only to bus me only if I had some real suspicion.  This is way too early.

:P
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 16, 2012, 10:30:46 am
Hey Frisk, when you were planning you're pregame strategy with your partner, what did you guys determine to be the best course of action? While you're answering that, wanna tell me if your teammate is Eevee or Cayvie? I'm honestly not sure.

I thought you and I agreed only to bus me only if I had some real suspicion.  This is way too early.

:P

;D
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 16, 2012, 11:02:49 am
How many emoticons do we need to get RobZ to vote?

@Pingpongsam - regarding early voting - here's my thinking (should be similar to what I've said in previous games).  This is a viewpoint that RobZ and I do not share.

Pointing the Finger of Suspicion on day 1 is pretty damn useless.  It provides 0 pressure to the person fingered.  Even if all 8 people here are FOSing me, I don't care.  I'm not going to roleclaim. 

However, if 4 people are VOTING for me, then I'm in a completely different position.  I'm panicked - 1 more person and I'm dead.  It also provides a bunch of information.  4 people have basically gone on record saying "Frisk is so scummy that I'm comfortable with him dying".   In an ideal world, I would want everyone to get up to 4 votes real votes and claim... then you have all sorts of good information... but there's just no way to accomplish this - because the pressure doesn't exist without the thread of being lynched.

So - at least in the games I've been in (this is my 5th, but only 3 are actually finished) - there was an early silly stage... in which we voted on people for no reason.  Then eventually someone said something that someone else thought was scummy and we moved on to some real discussion. 

Now - once we have some votes on people, or we're on day 3 or so, then voting is very dangerous - and the FOS becomes much more useful.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Eevee on July 16, 2012, 11:08:33 am
Where's Fuzzy (Eevee)?
I'm here. Not much to say yet, timchen is the only one who has stood out to me. You seem to attack me one way or another in every game we are in together, why is that?

I don't trust Pokemon.

Anyway, wait, I attacked you here? Edgy a bit? I asked where you were...
Yeah edgy, apologies. Wrote that post in a hurry, didnt mean to come off that butthurt. However, what i meant to say was "I'm getting a vibe you generally dont trust me" which apparently is true. Okay.

I never know what to say day1 before anything has really happened. I do realize its important to post just to make something happen, but I dont much believe in the "Galzria, how did you feel when your role pm said its mafia time?" method either so.. :/
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Eevee on July 16, 2012, 11:11:40 am
In an ideal world, I would want everyone to get up to 4 votes real votes and claim... then you have all sorts of good information... but there's just no way to accomplish this - because the pressure doesn't exist without the thread of being lynched.
That is a TERRIBLE thing to wish if you are a townie. In an ideal world, we would force all our power roles to claim on day 1?

Its so majorly fuqqed up I dont even consider it a scumslip but maaaan!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 16, 2012, 11:35:16 am
Pointing the Finger of Suspicion on day 1 is pretty damn useless.  It provides 0 pressure to the person fingered.  Even if all 8 people here are FOSing me, I don't care.  I'm not going to roleclaim.

In my mind the FoS is just a call for the FoS'd to respond to the FoS; which you did... so apparently it works pretty well even on people who claim it provides 0 pressure. It was certainly not intended as pressure to roleclaim.

Now a scummy response to a FoS might deserve a vote. The scummiest thing you said in this particular FoS response was that you'd like to see all the Town roles claimed D1 and I don't see how that it is possibly Town positive. I don't think such an absurd idea deserves a vote... yet.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 16, 2012, 11:48:30 am
In an ideal world, I would want everyone to get up to 4 votes real votes and claim... then you have all sorts of good information... but there's just no way to accomplish this - because the pressure doesn't exist without the thread of being lynched.
That is a TERRIBLE thing to wish if you are a townie. In an ideal world, we would force all our power roles to claim on day 1?

Its so majorly fuqqed up I dont even consider it a scumslip but maaaan!

So let me walk you through my thinking there.  Lets make some general assumptions that you favor a directed lynch (because then people had to provide a reason) over a random lynch, and a random lynch over no lynch.  Agreed?

When we execute a targeted lynch on Day 1 - we'll make it up to L-1 and the following things can happen:

1. Mafia quick hammers before a claim is possible.
2. Town hammers self (I wouldn't include this as a possibility, but it has happened in these forums before)
3. Mafia is being lynched and claims power role. 
4. Mafia is being lynched and claims VT
5. Town is being lynched and claims VT
6. Town is being lynched and claims PR.

The general thinking is that you don't lynch PR -> so there's no reason for mafia to claim VT.  What ends up happening in this scenario is that we force roleclaims until we hit a VT - and then we end up lynching vanilla town.

If we stop lynching VT claims (because its obvious that they are VT at that point), then that starts to let Mafia claim VT and get away with it, which then means that the outcome of lynching is just that we're outing PRs.

End result is - the more people we near lynch - the more information we get regarding bandwagons.  We can't plan to near lynch multiple people though, because this reduces the value of the information obtained from the wagon and claim.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 16, 2012, 11:52:45 am
Where's Fuzzy (Eevee)?
I'm here. Not much to say yet, timchen is the only one who has stood out to me. You seem to attack me one way or another in every game we are in together, why is that?

I don't trust Pokemon.

Anyway, wait, I attacked you here? Edgy a bit? I asked where you were...
Yeah edgy, apologies. Wrote that post in a hurry, didnt mean to come off that butthurt. However, what i meant to say was "I'm getting a vibe you generally dont trust me" which apparently is true. Okay.

I never know what to say day1 before anything has really happened. I do realize its important to post just to make something happen, but I dont much believe in the "Galzria, how did you feel when your role pm said its mafia time?" method either so.. :/
I felt great! I love being Ma...
Oh, wait. You weren't asking me? *Ahem*Disregard!

In all seriousness, no, I don't naturally distrust you any more than anybody else. To that effect however, I DO distrust you just as much. Most people like to start a game with null reads on everybody, but I like to start with everybody as "more likely scum than town" because letting anybody become "pro-town" in my eyes can be dangerous.

I also (read D1 M-III) like to focus on the Veterans D1, because they are a semi known quantity to me. Robz I know takes the opposite approach, scrutinizing the new players. Both methods have some track record of success. In my post to CF, I grabbed your name, and Timchen's (after lolCayvie). It certainly wasn't personal however.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 16, 2012, 11:56:28 am
Now that I've played with some of these jokers a few times, I tend to suspect the experienced players more - because man, if its a 2 n00b mafia, hopefully that will be evident extremely early.

That said, this game isn't especially "hard" - most of the obvious bad plays are obviously so - and the rest is WIFOM.  Even playing as serial killer in my 2nd game game didn't strike me as especially challenging.  I totally would have gotten away with it if it wasn't for glooble random block.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Eevee on July 16, 2012, 12:11:36 pm
I felt great! I love being Ma...
Oh, wait. You weren't asking me? *Ahem*Disregard!

In all seriousness, no, I don't naturally distrust you any more than anybody else. To that effect however, I DO distrust you just as much. Most people like to start a game with null reads on everybody, but I like to start with everybody as "more likely scum than town" because letting anybody become "pro-town" in my eyes can be dangerous.

I also (read D1 M-III) like to focus on the Veterans D1, because they are a semi known quantity to me. Robz I know takes the opposite approach, scrutinizing the new players. Both methods have some track record of success. In my post to CF, I grabbed your name, and Timchen's (after lolCayvie). It certainly wasn't personal however.

"More likely scum than town" seems like a terrible approach. I thought you were all 25% to be mafia before the banter began, now the numbers would be slightly different (timchen and galzria at 30% or something like that, my reads are quite nonexistent still). Why would you disregard simple math? Almost seems like a mafia trying too hard to look like town..

Focusing on veterans makes a lot of sense. And I dont think its personal as in actually personal, but wondering if its personal in the mafia meta kind of way.  :)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 16, 2012, 12:15:53 pm
Interesting - I read his "more likely scum than mafia" not in the literal sence (i suspect that everyone is 55% likely to be mafia) but rather that everyone had a higher than expected chance to be mafia (say - 30%) as a way of keeping himself on his toes.

Plus - I think Galzria said he's done alot of stage acting in the past or something to that effect.  He's probably bad at math.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 16, 2012, 12:24:32 pm
Interesting - I read his "more likely scum than mafia" not in the literal sence (i suspect that everyone is 55% likely to be mafia) but rather that everyone had a higher than expected chance to be mafia (say - 30%) as a way of keeping himself on his toes.

Plus - I think Galzria said he's done alot of stage acting in the past or something to that effect.  He's probably bad at math.

Yes to your first point, lol @ your second.

I don't mean "odds of being", I meant that I, say, assign everybody an equal -5 value to start, where 0 is neutral, and then keep tallies of how they play. I very much think it's a GOOD idea not to let people become trusted too much. For one thing, look at who's been scum in games past, and how they've been read by the town:

Me in M-II, Yuma (to an extent) in M-III, Glooble for much of M-IV, Yuma for M-V...

I'm not saying "persecute the trusty reads", I'm saying that I see greater value in not letting people get to that point in my eyes. It's been proven poor town play to trust to dearly.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Eevee on July 16, 2012, 12:33:08 pm
Interesting - I read his "more likely scum than mafia" not in the literal sence (i suspect that everyone is 55% likely to be mafia) but rather that everyone had a higher than expected chance to be mafia (say - 30%) as a way of keeping himself on his toes.

Plus - I think Galzria said he's done alot of stage acting in the past or something to that effect.  He's probably bad at math.

Yes to your first point, lol @ your second.

I don't mean "odds of being", I meant that I, say, assign everybody an equal -5 value to start, where 0 is neutral, and then keep tallies of how they play. I very much think it's a GOOD idea not to let people become trusted too much. For one thing, look at who's been scum in games past, and how they've been read by the town:

Me in M-II, Yuma (to an extent) in M-III, Glooble for much of M-IV, Yuma for M-V...

I'm not saying "persecute the trusty reads", I'm saying that I see greater value in not letting people get to that point in my eyes. It's been proven poor town play to trust to dearly.
yuma seems to play mafia masterfully.

I dont know, my approach is trying to find people I can trust (because it helps to read at least some analysis that isnt mafia polluting my mind) and then constantly re-evaluating the situation to see if they did something scummy. I feel my town-radar works quite well (quite well meaning a lot better than my mafia radar).
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 16, 2012, 12:35:21 pm
Interesting - I read his "more likely scum than mafia" not in the literal sence (i suspect that everyone is 55% likely to be mafia) but rather that everyone had a higher than expected chance to be mafia (say - 30%) as a way of keeping himself on his toes.

Plus - I think Galzria said he's done alot of stage acting in the past or something to that effect.  He's probably bad at math.

Yes to your first point, lol @ your second.

Damn - I was kindof hoping for a stronger reaction.  I thought about quick apologizing when I saw how much more dickish it looked than I wanted it to - and then I decided that riling you up in the game could only be a good thing.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: manda2014 on July 16, 2012, 12:41:58 pm
Interesting - I read his "more likely scum than mafia" not in the literal sence (i suspect that everyone is 55% likely to be mafia) but rather that everyone had a higher than expected chance to be mafia (say - 30%) as a way of keeping himself on his toes.

Plus - I think Galzria said he's done alot of stage acting in the past or something to that effect.  He's probably bad at math.

Yes to your first point, lol @ your second.

I don't mean "odds of being", I meant that I, say, assign everybody an equal -5 value to start, where 0 is neutral, and then keep tallies of how they play. I very much think it's a GOOD idea not to let people become trusted too much. For one thing, look at who's been scum in games past, and how they've been read by the town:

Me in M-II, Yuma (to an extent) in M-III, Glooble for much of M-IV, Yuma for M-V...

I'm not saying "persecute the trusty reads", I'm saying that I see greater value in not letting people get to that point in my eyes. It's been proven poor town play to trust to dearly.
yuma seems to play mafia masterfully.

I dont know, my approach is trying to find people I can trust (because it helps to read at least some analysis that isnt mafia polluting my mind) and then constantly re-evaluating the situation to see if they did something scummy. I feel my town-radar works quite well (quite well meaning a lot better than my mafia radar).

Trying to find someone to trust seems to me to be a really dangerous approach, because scum is going to be trying very hard to LOOK trustworthy. I mean, I'll trust my own reads but I'm never going to 100% assume I'm right. If you don't take everything anyone says with a grain of salt, there's too much danger of assuming the person you got a town read on initially is still town and you'll end up being scum's best friend.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 16, 2012, 12:45:24 pm
Interesting - I read his "more likely scum than mafia" not in the literal sence (i suspect that everyone is 55% likely to be mafia) but rather that everyone had a higher than expected chance to be mafia (say - 30%) as a way of keeping himself on his toes.

Plus - I think Galzria said he's done alot of stage acting in the past or something to that effect.  He's probably bad at math.

Yes to your first point, lol @ your second.

Damn - I was kindof hoping for a stronger reaction.  I thought about quick apologizing when I saw how much more dickish it looked than I wanted it to - and then I decided that riling you up in the game could only be a good thing.

Sorry, redo:

How dare you insult me?!? My math skills are perfectly fine! Who ever said anything about not being able to be Theater AND be good at math!? Rage! Rage! OMGUS vote on Captain Frisk! Gaaar!

Better?

---

So you admit to being willing to bus D1 if it seems necessary?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: manda2014 on July 16, 2012, 12:45:56 pm
Pointing the Finger of Suspicion on day 1 is pretty damn useless.  It provides 0 pressure to the person fingered.  Even if all 8 people here are FOSing me, I don't care.  I'm not going to roleclaim.

In my mind the FoS is just a call for the FoS'd to respond to the FoS; which you did... so apparently it works pretty well even on people who claim it provides 0 pressure. It was certainly not intended as pressure to roleclaim.

Now a scummy response to a FoS might deserve a vote. The scummiest thing you said in this particular FoS response was that you'd like to see all the Town roles claimed D1 and I don't see how that it is possibly Town positive. I don't think such an absurd idea deserves a vote... yet.

I like the idea of a little early voting just to shake things up, because it's considerably more pressure than the FoS, and, scum might panic and make a mistake. Early wagons I think are really dangerous--we don't want to out power roles. No one's gonna claim at 1 vote, but I don't think we want to get to L-1 without more time for analysis.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Eevee on July 16, 2012, 12:52:54 pm
Interesting - I read his "more likely scum than mafia" not in the literal sence (i suspect that everyone is 55% likely to be mafia) but rather that everyone had a higher than expected chance to be mafia (say - 30%) as a way of keeping himself on his toes.

Plus - I think Galzria said he's done alot of stage acting in the past or something to that effect.  He's probably bad at math.

Yes to your first point, lol @ your second.

I don't mean "odds of being", I meant that I, say, assign everybody an equal -5 value to start, where 0 is neutral, and then keep tallies of how they play. I very much think it's a GOOD idea not to let people become trusted too much. For one thing, look at who's been scum in games past, and how they've been read by the town:

Me in M-II, Yuma (to an extent) in M-III, Glooble for much of M-IV, Yuma for M-V...

I'm not saying "persecute the trusty reads", I'm saying that I see greater value in not letting people get to that point in my eyes. It's been proven poor town play to trust to dearly.
yuma seems to play mafia masterfully.

I dont know, my approach is trying to find people I can trust (because it helps to read at least some analysis that isnt mafia polluting my mind) and then constantly re-evaluating the situation to see if they did something scummy. I feel my town-radar works quite well (quite well meaning a lot better than my mafia radar).

Trying to find someone to trust seems to me to be a really dangerous approach, because scum is going to be trying very hard to LOOK trustworthy. I mean, I'll trust my own reads but I'm never going to 100% assume I'm right. If you don't take everything anyone says with a grain of salt, there's too much danger of assuming the person you got a town read on initially is still town and you'll end up being scum's best friend.
That came out wrong. I meant to say I disagree with galzrias method of actively trying to avoid trusting anyone. I dont find a problem with getting a strong town vibe from someone and then listening to that people a little more than others when deciding who to lynch or what to do. Not ruling out the chance of anyone being mafia ever, but playing the  percentages (I assign in my head).
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 16, 2012, 12:57:01 pm
Interesting - I read his "more likely scum than mafia" not in the literal sence (i suspect that everyone is 55% likely to be mafia) but rather that everyone had a higher than expected chance to be mafia (say - 30%) as a way of keeping himself on his toes.

Plus - I think Galzria said he's done alot of stage acting in the past or something to that effect.  He's probably bad at math.

Yes to your first point, lol @ your second.

Damn - I was kindof hoping for a stronger reaction.  I thought about quick apologizing when I saw how much more dickish it looked than I wanted it to - and then I decided that riling you up in the game could only be a good thing.

Sorry, redo:

How dare you insult me?!? My math skills are perfectly fine! Who ever said anything about not being able to be Theater AND be good at math!? Rage! Rage! OMGUS vote on Captain Frisk! Gaaar!

Better?

---

So you admit to being willing to bus D1 if it seems necessary?

Much better.  As for your question - I'm not sure.  With regard to life in general I would say that I like to keep as many options open as I can.  I don't have any tatoos, and I'd never put those earlobe expanding plugs in my ears. 

So - strictly speaking I would have to answer - "Yes, if I were mafia, I would be willing D1 if it seems necessary."  Anyone who says anything else is either lying or not thinking things through.   

I would probably prefer to avoid it (since killing your own partner also limits your options in the future).  In this particular game - it seems like a really bad idea.

Why - what is your partner planning on doing when you are near lynched today?  Are you fishing for good ideas? 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: shark_bait on July 16, 2012, 01:11:12 pm
I've been rather quiet so far.  Here's my opinion on what's happening.  There has been a lot of "coaching" and "advice" from some of the veteran players.  I really don't think as of now, we can glean much from that.  Whether they are scum or town, it is beneficial.  If they are scum, they gain credibility by "helping" the town.  If they are town, they help the rest of the town understand the best course of action.  So with that said, I'm inclined to trust them for now.  But at some point, us noobz need to propose some ideas and see how those vets respond to try and determine where their loyalties lie.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 16, 2012, 01:28:39 pm
Interesting - I read his "more likely scum than mafia" not in the literal sence (i suspect that everyone is 55% likely to be mafia) but rather that everyone had a higher than expected chance to be mafia (say - 30%) as a way of keeping himself on his toes.

Plus - I think Galzria said he's done alot of stage acting in the past or something to that effect.  He's probably bad at math.

Yes to your first point, lol @ your second.

Damn - I was kindof hoping for a stronger reaction.  I thought about quick apologizing when I saw how much more dickish it looked than I wanted it to - and then I decided that riling you up in the game could only be a good thing.

Sorry, redo:

How dare you insult me?!? My math skills are perfectly fine! Who ever said anything about not being able to be Theater AND be good at math!? Rage! Rage! OMGUS vote on Captain Frisk! Gaaar!

Better?

---

So you admit to being willing to bus D1 if it seems necessary?

Much better.  As for your question - I'm not sure.  With regard to life in general I would say that I like to keep as many options open as I can.  I don't have any tatoos, and I'd never put those earlobe expanding plugs in my ears. 

So - strictly speaking I would have to answer - "Yes, if I were mafia, I would be willing D1 if it seems necessary."  Anyone who says anything else is either lying or not thinking things through.   

I would probably prefer to avoid it (since killing your own partner also limits your options in the future).  In this particular game - it seems like a really bad idea.

Why - what is your partner planning on doing when you are near lynched today?  Are you fishing for good ideas?

I'm always open to new ideas, and understanding the psyche of Mafia (scum) players not named Galzria (I know his thoughts!) seems to be beneficial as far as meta-gaming goes.

Now, anything I say (and you, or others) turns into WIFOM. I might say it, but will I do it? This is the crux of my "actions meet words" mafiahunting technique, which is why I like getting definitive statements one way or another. If we lynch scum, I can look back on your statement above when considering if you might be Mafiosi #2.

To clear up the first paragraph, when talking about how "Mafia Galzria" thinks, I'm strictly speaking in a meta-game sense. I'm pro-town aligned here.

---

Pingpongsam:

What are your views? Are you willing to bus your Mafia partner D1?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 16, 2012, 02:27:32 pm
I kind of wish I was Mafia because a) I've not gotten the opportunity to play that side of the fence yet and b) catching suspicion and heat as a Townie has got to be tougher than catching the same heat when you really are the dirty bastard they all say you are.

I'm pretty averse to D1 lynching because my experience to this point has been it produces terrible results with no useful information after the fact. I'm sure it can happen in other ways but my experience dictates you don't kill someone just to see which way they flip, you kill someone because you have damn good reasons that are all your own to believe they are Mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: timchen on July 16, 2012, 02:38:06 pm
Guys (and ladies): stop arguing and just vote for frisk to test his own theory!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: shark_bait on July 16, 2012, 02:48:14 pm
Vote: Captain Frisk
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 16, 2012, 02:52:54 pm
Vote Count 1-2

timchen (1): Captain_Frisk
Captain_Frisk (2): timchen, shark_bait

Not Voting {6}: Robz888, Eevee, Galzria, Young Nick, manda2014, pingpongsam

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 16, 2012, 04:35:17 pm
Way too long without posting in here.

@Shark_bait - would you like to explain your vote?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 16, 2012, 04:38:40 pm
Way too long without posting in here.

@Shark_bait - would you like to explain your vote?

Why should he? You suggested it.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Eevee on July 16, 2012, 04:44:19 pm
Way too long without posting in here.

@Shark_bait - would you like to explain your vote?

Why should he? You suggested it.

Well, the pressure is much more.. pressing (?) if you give the accused some reasons for your vote.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 16, 2012, 04:51:06 pm
Not to mention that voting without reasons is pretty damn scummy.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 16, 2012, 04:51:31 pm
Way too long without posting in here.

@Shark_bait - would you like to explain your vote?

Why should he? You suggested it.

Timchen placed the 1st vote specifically because Frisk proposed we get each person to L-1 to force role claims. Sharky cast the next vote almost immediately thereafter so it appeared to me there was no need for further clarification. I found the 2 votes to be rather self-explanatory. I don't agree with the method so I won't be joining the wagon on these grounds but I can certainly understand how the wagon is forming considering Frisk provided the genesis for it.

Well, the pressure is much more.. pressing (?) if you give the accused some reasons for your vote.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 16, 2012, 04:52:48 pm
Way too long without posting in here.

@Shark_bait - would you like to explain your vote?

Why should he? You suggested it.

Well, the pressure is much more.. pressing (?) if you give the accused some reasons for your vote.


Timchen placed the 1st vote specifically because Frisk proposed we get each person to L-1 to force role claims. Sharky cast the next vote almost immediately thereafter so it appeared to me there was no need for further clarification. I found the 2 votes to be rather self-explanatory. I don't agree with the method so I won't be joining the wagon on these grounds but I can certainly understand how the wagon is forming considering Frisk provided the genesis for it.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 16, 2012, 04:56:05 pm
Ummm - you might want to go back and read timchen's vote against me.  You did provide a reason that tim might have voted for me... if his vote was cast on the last page.  But his vote is much much further back.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Eevee on July 16, 2012, 04:56:58 pm
Not to mention that voting without reasons is pretty damn scummy.
Yeah, it sort of implies you have secret reasons and who has those? Thats right, mafia does.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: timchen on July 16, 2012, 04:59:35 pm
If I have not voted for frisk earlier I will vote for him now. The reason, however, cannot be revealed before he is at L-1 and makes his roleclaim.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 16, 2012, 04:59:51 pm
Not to mention that voting without reasons is pretty damn scummy.
Yeah, it sort of implies you have secret reasons and who has those? Thats right, mafia does.

The counterargument here is popsofctown - who never wanted to explain his thinking at all.  I was kindof shocked when he flipped town in M4
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 16, 2012, 05:00:54 pm
If I have not voted for frisk earlier I will vote for him now. The reason, however, cannot be revealed before he is at L-1 and makes his roleclaim.

Side note: I desperately want you to be mafia so that I can actually beat you at a game.  I'm still ashamed about our 2011 championship matches.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 16, 2012, 05:01:41 pm
Ummm - you might want to go back and read timchen's vote against me.  You did provide a reason that tim might have voted for me... if his vote was cast on the last page.  But his vote is much much further back.

Okay, you are 100% correct. I hallucinated timchen's vote as being above Sharky's. Sharky appears to have taken the ball Timchen held out and run with it which is somewhat scummy in my opinion provided there is no reason other than an invitation.

FoS Sharky
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: shark_bait on July 16, 2012, 05:08:18 pm
Reasons for voting for Frisk:

First - It seems like a little pressure on someone isn't a bad thing per your theory about near lynch's yielding information.

Second - It gives me a solid reason for people to believe that I'm town if the pressure switches to me.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 16, 2012, 05:15:10 pm
Second - It gives me a solid reason for people to believe that I'm town if the pressure switches to me.

Pretend for a second that someone else had written that.  What would you read into it?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 16, 2012, 05:18:07 pm
Vote Sharky

This guy is placing votes in order to propagate the perception that he is Town something not needed when actualyl Town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 16, 2012, 05:21:07 pm
Vote Count 1-3

timchen (1): Captain_Frisk
Captain_Frisk (2): timchen, shark_bait
shark_bait (1): pingpongsam

Not Voting {5}: Robz888, Eevee, Galzria, Young Nick, manda2014

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: timchen on July 16, 2012, 05:23:43 pm
@frisk: we should play some more dominion! Didn't see u often on iso nowadays...

I don't understand sharkbait's second reason. But it does not read scummy to me, unless he is saying both of u are scums, and he can look better by voting for you. And then your previous line is coaching?

Ouch.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: shark_bait on July 16, 2012, 05:25:13 pm
Second - It gives me a solid reason for people to believe that I'm town if the pressure switches to me.

Pretend for a second that someone else had written that.  What would you read into it?

*facepalm*

But in all honesty, I would know for sure that they weren't PR.  That would just be stupid for a PR to do that.  According to Pings, apparently if you're town, you don't need others to know that, so anyone reading this would think that I'm Mafia trying to fly under the radar under the guise of town. 

*facepalm*
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 16, 2012, 05:29:23 pm
@frisk: we should play some more dominion! Didn't see u often on iso nowadays...

I don't understand sharkbait's second reason. But it does not read scummy to me, unless he is saying both of u are scums, and he can look better by voting for you. And then your previous line is coaching?

Ouch.

Yeah - my rank is falling due to lack of play.  Mafia has been taking my worktime diversion, and diablo 3 has taken my eveningtime diversion.  Summer time, nice weather, yardwork, etc. etc. etc. etc.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Eevee on July 16, 2012, 05:44:41 pm
@frisk: we should play some more dominion! Didn't see u often on iso nowadays...

I don't understand sharkbait's second reason. But it does not read scummy to me, unless he is saying both of u are scums, and he can look better by voting for you. And then your previous line is coaching?

Ouch.

Yeah - my rank is falling due to lack of play.  Mafia has been taking my worktime diversion, and diablo 3 has taken my eveningtime diversion.  Summer time, nice weather, yardwork, etc. etc. etc. etc.

Sounds so familiar. I was at my all time high rank (44) before I found mafia. Now I dont even know where I am because I log in so rarely but guessing its something like 40. Should really enjoy iso when we still have it.. :/
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Young Nick on July 16, 2012, 05:49:57 pm
I am with Eevee and C_F, but come on guys, let's keep this mafia-related.

Having said that, I have to run and thus am hoping to get a longer post out later in the evening. I've been quiet, I know.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: shark_bait on July 16, 2012, 05:50:33 pm
Sounds so familiar. I was at my all time high rank (44) before I found mafia. Now I dont even know where I am because I log in so rarely but guessing its something like 40. Should really enjoy iso when we still have it.. :/

Yes!!!  B/c the current beta is still slow and tedious.  That's it for my off topic contributions.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Eevee on July 16, 2012, 06:10:03 pm
I am with Eevee and C_F, but come on guys, let's keep this mafia-related.

Having said that, I have to run and thus am hoping to get a longer post out later in the evening. I've been quiet, I know.
Thats fair, but I actually think off-topic can be useful (if done in moderation). Like now we know both me and Frisk care about mafia enough to make us play a lot less dominion. Okay, probably not useful, but you know, it might be? If frisk says "whatever I dont want to play this stupid game anymore, lynch me if you want" when facing heat, I'm going to assume its a mafia trying to trick us rather than a legitimately frustrated townie. If we see frisk online on iso when someone claims cop and not unvoting, we can maybe deduct he is mafia and tries to fake not noticing in time? Note: I'm not saying these are likely scenarios or necessarily bulletproof reads, but trying to prove a point.

@shark_bait
I think town power roles actually have a lot of incentive to try to look town, they dont want to be forced to claim (especially not in this setup). That statement still looks scummy as hell though.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: timchen on July 16, 2012, 06:52:57 pm
Why is sharkbait's statement scummy?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: manda2014 on July 16, 2012, 06:56:17 pm
Wow, lots of new stuff since I last got on, and I'm VERY confused by Sharky. Casting a vote in a post with LITERALLY no other content and then, when prodded, providing reasons that are tenuous at best...

Reasons for voting for Frisk:

First - It seems like a little pressure on someone isn't a bad thing per your theory about near lynch's yielding information.

Second - It gives me a solid reason for people to believe that I'm town if the pressure switches to me.

...seems really scummy to me. Still, I'll hold off on voting for a little bit. Maybe it's not scum play, and it's just really unhelpful town play. (popsofctown, anyone?)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: manda2014 on July 16, 2012, 07:02:56 pm
Second - It gives me a solid reason for people to believe that I'm town if the pressure switches to me.

Pretend for a second that someone else had written that.  What would you read into it?

I really, really don't understand this reason at all. 1) How does voting for Frisk give you a reason for people to believe you're town?

Why is sharkbait's statement scummy?

2) If you get lynched and you flip town, it hurts the town because we're down a player, but it also provides us with information about who's mafia (by analyzing the wagon, etc.) so, you know, you should be willing to sacrifice your own ability to play to help the town win. Chances are that the first lynch will hit town anyway. IF YOU'RE SCUM, HOWEVER, you getting lynched DOESN'T both help and hurt the mafia; it only hurts. So when the pressure turns to someone who's scum, they DO need a reason to point to to prove that they're town. That's why it's scummy.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: timchen on July 16, 2012, 07:17:56 pm
Sorry, I still don't understand. I understand mafia usually do not want to be lynched. (but he might actually want to do so if it creates a cover for his partner!) But townies usually do not want to be lynched as well unless he can be sure that his wagon consists fully of mafia. And how does this have anything to do with Shark_bait's statement?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 16, 2012, 07:26:26 pm
Captain_Frisk, would you vote for Shark_Bait?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 16, 2012, 07:51:01 pm
I am thinking about it.  Will post more from pc tonight.  I have played dominion with sb before.  He isn't a doofus.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Young Nick on July 16, 2012, 08:46:00 pm
I am thinking about it.  Will post more from pc tonight.  I have played dominion with sb before.  He isn't a doofus.

Maybe not a doofus at Dominion, but that clearly is not pertinent to a game of Mafia. Either way, I'm holding off on thinking poorly of him until he gets a chance to try to defend himself again.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 16, 2012, 09:01:05 pm
Ok - so I'm at a PC now.  Shark_bait isn't just not a doofus @ dominion, he's an excellent player.  He's ranked #31 today - and a good chunk of that is because his uncertainty is high.  Give him 3 more levels if his uncertainty was +/- 7, and he's a top 15 player.

I am alot less likely to buy a "noob" defense from someone who has demonstrated extreme skill at any primarily mental activity.  It's actually the same reason that my vote is still on timchen.

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: timchen on July 16, 2012, 09:03:03 pm
Did I act like a noob anywhere in this game?  :o
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 16, 2012, 09:09:48 pm
No, it's my respect for you that is causing me to overread into smack talking during RVS!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: shark_bait on July 16, 2012, 09:46:34 pm
Alright, time for me to talk.  Let's hope I don't have to stuff a sock in it again.  My vote for Frisk came in response to timchen's call for action.

Guys (and ladies): stop arguing and just vote for frisk to test his own theory!

Frisk's Theory
So let me walk you through my thinking there.  Lets make some general assumptions that you favor a directed lynch (because then people had to provide a reason) over a random lynch, and a random lynch over no lynch.  Agreed?

When we execute a targeted lynch on Day 1 - we'll make it up to L-1 and the following things can happen:

1. Mafia quick hammers before a claim is possible.
2. Town hammers self (I wouldn't include this as a possibility, but it has happened in these forums before)
3. Mafia is being lynched and claims power role. 
4. Mafia is being lynched and claims VT
5. Town is being lynched and claims VT
6. Town is being lynched and claims PR.

The general thinking is that you don't lynch PR -> so there's no reason for mafia to claim VT.  What ends up happening in this scenario is that we force roleclaims until we hit a VT - and then we end up lynching vanilla town.

If we stop lynching VT claims (because its obvious that they are VT at that point), then that starts to let Mafia claim VT and get away with it, which then means that the outcome of lynching is just that we're outing PRs.

End result is - the more people we near lynch - the more information we get regarding bandwagons.  We can't plan to near lynch multiple people though, because this reduces the value of the information obtained from the wagon and claim.

timchen was already voting for Frisk so it seemed natural to continue down this path thus "testing his theory".  If people had continued to pile on the Frisk band wagon, worst case we force a role claim as Frisk describes in his theory.  Regardless of what the claim is, WE GET INFORMATION.  My eagerness to start (almost) lynching was due to my thought of, "Hey, I'm not a power role, I don't need to worry about suspicion coming on me because I'm not special."

Now I realize that the statement above also sounds very scummy.  Yes I am aware that I'm saying don't lynch me b/c I'm town.  Frisk noted my mental capacity and I'll try to use that.  I completely realize that there is a large freight train about to rail down on me.  I only ask this, that you take a few detours and put pressure on multiple people.  More pressure = more information.


Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 16, 2012, 09:55:35 pm
 :-\

Ugh. Well.... Hum. I know how Pops would react at this time.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: shark_bait on July 16, 2012, 10:04:59 pm
:-\

Ugh. Well.... Hum. I know how Pops would react at this time.

I'm pretty sure I know how he would have reacted regardless of what I said or didn't say.  In his eyes, I don't know if I could have said anything redeeming.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 16, 2012, 10:20:12 pm
:-\

Ugh. Well.... Hum. I know how Pops would react at this time.

I'm pretty sure I know how he would have reacted regardless of what I said or didn't say.  In his eyes, I don't know if I could have said anything redeeming.

It's...not that.

You just claimed, and that's bad for town. Because you're either scum, or town. And if you're town, scum now know not to shoot you at night, thus increasing their odds of hitting a PR.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: shark_bait on July 16, 2012, 10:35:13 pm
Ahh... gotcha.  I apologize for my poor play.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 16, 2012, 10:44:21 pm
So Galz - and this is a theory question - so go ahead and lynch me after -

But if claiming is bad for town - what is your ideal scenario (lets assume for one minute that you are town)?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 16, 2012, 10:45:40 pm
Ahh... gotcha.  I apologize for my poor play.

No, don't worry too much. This is a learning game after all. Just, future reference. ;)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 16, 2012, 10:59:19 pm
So Galz - and this is a theory question - so go ahead and lynch me after -

But if claiming is bad for town - what is your ideal scenario (lets assume for one minute that you are town)?

Yes let's.

I'm not sure I understand the question. Claiming (in general) is negative all the way around:

Town claims PR: Scum knows the claim is likely true, so can take Night Actions accordingly.
Scum claims PR: Town must unvote, consider, and likely let the claimee live. If there's a counter-claim, yes, the scum dies but again, so does the PR (most likely).
Town claims VT: Depending on the situation, you should lynch them anyway - At least a PR isn't being lynched, and you've got to keep the Mafia honest (from making this claim)
Mafia claims VT: See above.

In VERY few situations do you claim anything if you're not L-1. Let's assume S_B is telling the truth and is town. His claim was accidental and not under pressure. So we don't lynch him. Instead we lynch somebody else. We've already decreased the size of the pool to 8, increasing the odds we force a PR claim; see above for the problem with that. But let's assume we hit another VT (remember, hitting scum falls under PR claims). Now we go into night with 1 VT dead, and 1 known. Add 2 Mafia, and that leaves a 20% per role that scum lynch something important. The longer you can keep your PM under wraps - even just a VT PM - the better it is for town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: timchen on July 16, 2012, 11:41:50 pm
Galz, I don't agree. It depends on the setup. Say in the extreme situation when there is no PR at all, if a townie can prove himself a VT it is definitely an advantage to the town. It is roughly equivalent to a NK, as mafia has to NK him to recover. In the current setup we have to weigh between this effect and the increase of the chance for the mafia to find PR. I feel like it is still a good deal to claim if we have only 1 PR, as the chance increase for them to find PR is less than the chance increase for us to find them. And I feel in the current setup it is beneficial to the town if we can exchange a PR death with a mafia lynch?

Speaking of the PR. What do you guys think is the most powerful? It seems to me that cops is the one that stands out.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Robz888 on July 16, 2012, 11:42:18 pm
This might be a good time to mention that Sharky is one of only two people on this forum (the other being Ednever) who I have met in real life.

Sharky and I are twin brothers.

(Just kidding! That's a Mafia IV joke.)

But yeah, we do know each other; we both went to an IRL Dominion tournament last month. He's cool, and definitely a very smart person.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Robz888 on July 16, 2012, 11:43:40 pm
Galz, I don't agree. It depends on the setup. Say in the extreme situation when there is no PR at all, if a townie can prove himself a VT it is definitely an advantage to the town. It is roughly equivalent to a NK, as mafia has to NK him to recover. In the current setup we have to weigh between this effect and the increase of the chance for the mafia to find PR. I feel like it is still a good deal to claim if we have only 1 PR, as the chance increase for them to find PR is less than the chance increase for us to find them. And I feel in the current setup it is beneficial to the town if we can exchange a PR death with a mafia lynch?

Speaking of the PR. What do you guys think is the most powerful? It seems to me that cops is the one that stands out.

Nobody should claim unless they are L-1... unless they have some good info they learned from using their powers. Revealing was a mistake on Sharky's part, but it's one everybody makes, and continues to make in every game we play, so no worries.

Cop is the most powerful role, but Doctor and Jailkeeper are also extremely powerful particularly in the endgame.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Young Nick on July 16, 2012, 11:58:47 pm
I guess I am just not so sure that S_B's VT accidental claim is what it seems. It would be quite cunning for a newbie to pretend to make a slip such as that and then apologize as other players tell him it's OK because its a newbie game. I mean that, along with his other comment (#108) about if the pressure shifts to him just kind of strikes me as someone playing it unnaturally dumb. Like too dumb. I am close to voting for him.

This is where I use FoS, when I am pre-voting. So FoS: Shark_Bait. A real vote is likely to come soon.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Robz888 on July 17, 2012, 12:03:11 am
I guess I am just not so sure that S_B's VT accidental claim is what it seems. It would be quite cunning for a newbie to pretend to make a slip such as that and then apologize as other players tell him it's OK because its a newbie game. I mean that, along with his other comment (#108) about if the pressure shifts to him just kind of strikes me as someone playing it unnaturally dumb. Like too dumb. I am close to voting for him.

This is where I use FoS, when I am pre-voting. So FoS: Shark_Bait. A real vote is likely to come soon.

I actually don't like this. It looks like testing the waters of voting for me. Like you are saying, "I want to vote for this person, but I fear doing so will draw attention to me. So I will announce my intentions ahead of time and move slowly toward the vote. This way if the vote becomes a bad idea, I don't have to do it."

That's how I read this move.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: shark_bait on July 17, 2012, 12:14:12 am
Sharky and I are twin brothers.

(Just kidding! That's a Mafia IV joke.)


What?!?!?!  Should I have been lurking that Mafia game?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Robz888 on July 17, 2012, 12:36:38 am
Sharky and I are twin brothers.

(Just kidding! That's a Mafia IV joke.)


What?!?!?!  Should I have been lurking that Mafia game?

To explain, frequent Forum Mafia player Jotheonah and recurring player Glooble are twin brothers. Prior to the start of MIV, they explained that they knew each other IRL, but they waited until the middle of the game to do a full claim--after I accused them both of being mafia. After they claimed, I decided the fact that they were twins was making me see them as a scum team when in fact they were just genetically team-ish.

Glooble also claimed that Jo was town, and Pops said that we should trust Glooble's read on Jo, since they were brothers. I disagreed. Eventually we lynched Jo, who was innocent. We never lynched Glooble, who was mafia.

This Forum Mafia historical moment is brought to you by the Robz Channel. "You'll feel great when you tune in to the 8!"
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: manda2014 on July 17, 2012, 12:56:59 am
I guess I am just not so sure that S_B's VT accidental claim is what it seems. It would be quite cunning for a newbie to pretend to make a slip such as that and then apologize as other players tell him it's OK because its a newbie game. I mean that, along with his other comment (#108) about if the pressure shifts to him just kind of strikes me as someone playing it unnaturally dumb. Like too dumb. I am close to voting for him.

This is where I use FoS, when I am pre-voting. So FoS: Shark_Bait. A real vote is likely to come soon.

I actually don't like this. It looks like testing the waters of voting for me. Like you are saying, "I want to vote for this person, but I fear doing so will draw attention to me. So I will announce my intentions ahead of time and move slowly toward the vote. This way if the vote becomes a bad idea, I don't have to do it."

That's how I read this move.

See, I disagree. It seems to me much more like your own policy of not wanting to toss votes around, but wanting to wait and only vote once when you're sure of where you want to leave your vote. What Nick is saying about S_B seeming like too much of a n00b makes a lot of sense to me. Still no vote from me for now, but I'm definitely suspicious.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: manda2014 on July 17, 2012, 12:58:24 am
This Forum Mafia historical moment is brought to you by the Robz Channel. "You'll feel great when you tune in to the 8!"

Also, it's really too bad that the +1 button is gone. This deserves one for sure.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 17, 2012, 01:01:36 am
I guess I am just not so sure that S_B's VT accidental claim is what it seems. It would be quite cunning for a newbie to pretend to make a slip such as that and then apologize as other players tell him it's OK because its a newbie game. I mean that, along with his other comment (#108) about if the pressure shifts to him just kind of strikes me as someone playing it unnaturally dumb. Like too dumb. I am close to voting for him.

This is where I use FoS, when I am pre-voting. So FoS: Shark_Bait. A real vote is likely to come soon.

I actually don't like this. It looks like testing the waters of voting for me. Like you are saying, "I want to vote for this person, but I fear doing so will draw attention to me. So I will announce my intentions ahead of time and move slowly toward the vote. This way if the vote becomes a bad idea, I don't have to do it."

That's how I read this move.

See, I disagree. It seems to me much more like your own policy of not wanting to toss votes around, but wanting to wait and only vote once when you're sure of where you want to leave your vote. What Nick is saying about S_B seeming like too much of a n00b makes a lot of sense to me. Still no vote from me for now, but I'm definitely suspicious.

I'm not sure that I particularly share yours and Nick's suspicion of S_B, but I do like this call on Robz. I mean, it's not EXACTLY the same, as Robz wouldn't say "I'm close to voting" (actually, he has a FEW times), but by and large "FoS now, Vote later" is pretty textbook Robz.

So: Robz, what gives? You really take issue with the way Nick handled that?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Robz888 on July 17, 2012, 01:09:17 am
I guess I am just not so sure that S_B's VT accidental claim is what it seems. It would be quite cunning for a newbie to pretend to make a slip such as that and then apologize as other players tell him it's OK because its a newbie game. I mean that, along with his other comment (#108) about if the pressure shifts to him just kind of strikes me as someone playing it unnaturally dumb. Like too dumb. I am close to voting for him.

This is where I use FoS, when I am pre-voting. So FoS: Shark_Bait. A real vote is likely to come soon.

I actually don't like this. It looks like testing the waters of voting for me. Like you are saying, "I want to vote for this person, but I fear doing so will draw attention to me. So I will announce my intentions ahead of time and move slowly toward the vote. This way if the vote becomes a bad idea, I don't have to do it."

That's how I read this move.

See, I disagree. It seems to me much more like your own policy of not wanting to toss votes around, but wanting to wait and only vote once when you're sure of where you want to leave your vote. What Nick is saying about S_B seeming like too much of a n00b makes a lot of sense to me. Still no vote from me for now, but I'm definitely suspicious.

I'm not sure that I particularly share yours and Nick's suspicion of S_B, but I do like this call on Robz. I mean, it's not EXACTLY the same, as Robz wouldn't say "I'm close to voting" (actually, he has a FEW times), but by and large "FoS now, Vote later" is pretty textbook Robz.

So: Robz, what gives? You really take issue with the way Nick handled that?

Mhm, this is definitely true, but there are 2 things.

1). His tone is different than mine. I rarely use the convention "FoS", for one thing. I don't know. His was too sneakily official. When I am close to voting, but not ready to vote, it's usually because I have something to think about, and I note that. Or I have some hangup I express. He did not do that. Just a subtle difference, to me.

2). Really this technique--that I do use all the time now--originated as a way to tactfully vote for Morgrim when I was mafia (alongside Galzria! in MII). Now it's part of my gameplay style, but it existed at first because I was mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Young Nick on July 17, 2012, 01:14:35 am
First thing's first...my name's not Nick. Nick Young is just the chillest NBA player around these days. So yeah, Young Nick is just Nick Young backwards.

Relating to mafia...
I thought for the first 3 pages that FoS meant Full of Shenanigans. I just learned what it actually meant very recently! I'm not really a huge fan of it, and was not that into PPS using it, but it seemed an appropriate time to use it. I don't have a particular hang-up other than the fact that there really haven't been that many posts. So I try to glean as much as I can from the few we have.

As for Robz's second point, I totes notice him subtly hinting how that's a scummy technique. Don't think I don't see you ;)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Young Nick on July 17, 2012, 01:15:36 am
And, I stand by what I have said about S_B so far.
Vote: Shark_Bait
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: manda2014 on July 17, 2012, 01:17:26 am
I'm not a huge fan of the FoS. It just seems unnecessary to me. I mean, really, do we need a quasi-official convention in between "oh this guy/girl seems scummy" and a vote?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 17, 2012, 01:18:23 am
Vote Count 1-4

timchen (1): Captain_Frisk
Captain_Frisk (2): timchen, shark_bait
shark_bait (2): pingpongsam, Young Nick

Not Voting {4}: Robz888, Eevee, Galzria, manda2014

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Eevee on July 17, 2012, 05:21:18 am
Ahh... gotcha.  I apologize for my poor play.

No, don't worry too much. This is a learning game after all. Just, future reference. ;)
Isnt everyone going to be claiming VT at this point? Some people like to ask others "whats your role" in the RVS, surely everyone always just answers "vanilla ice baby"?

I'm not buying the noob defense from anyone in this game. The setup isnt confusing and all of you seem to have a good handle on things.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 17, 2012, 11:53:05 am
We had this debate in MIV... Jonah did the same thing... and we all decided that it was in fact a roleclaim.

It's possible that its a false claim - but I'm pretty sure that it would have been orchestrated by someone like RobZ or Galz.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 17, 2012, 11:56:05 am
I'm not a huge fan of the FoS. It just seems unnecessary to me. I mean, really, do we need a quasi-official convention in between "oh this guy/girl seems scummy" and a vote?

It's useful when you want to officially go on the record as suspecting someone while you are voting for someone else, or if you want to indicate your willingness to vote for someone when voting is dangerous.  (Say there are 5 people left and 2 mafia - a single misvote can end the game)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 17, 2012, 01:26:11 pm
I beleive there is a difference in claiming to be Town and claiming a specific Town role (VT, Doctor, etc).

It is customary for everyone, including the scum, to converse as if Town. It is entirely a different matter to specify your role in Town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 17, 2012, 01:28:04 pm
My eagerness to start (almost) lynching was due to my thought of, "Hey, I'm not a power role, I don't need to worry about suspicion coming on me because I'm not special."

I beleive there is a difference in claiming to be Town and claiming a specific Town role (VT, Doctor, etc).

It is customary for everyone, including the scum, to converse as if Town. It is entirely a different matter to specify your role in Town.

PPS - he claims he isn't a power role - thus process of elimination indicates that he is claiming to be vanilla town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 17, 2012, 01:30:40 pm
My eagerness to start (almost) lynching was due to my thought of, "Hey, I'm not a power role, I don't need to worry about suspicion coming on me because I'm not special."

I beleive there is a difference in claiming to be Town and claiming a specific Town role (VT, Doctor, etc).

It is customary for everyone, including the scum, to converse as if Town. It is entirely a different matter to specify your role in Town.

PPS - he claims he isn't a power role - thus process of elimination indicates that he is claiming to be vanilla town.

I am acutely aware of this fact. To be explicit, I consider his move to be a roleclaim.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 17, 2012, 05:00:56 pm
Galz - why are you lurking today?  How long have you been waiting to be mafia paired with a newb so that you could early claim VT and have it look like a n00b mistake?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 17, 2012, 05:26:26 pm
Vote Count 1-4

timchen (1): Captain_Frisk
Captain_Frisk (2): timchen, shark_bait
shark_bait (2): pingpongsam, Young Nick

Not Voting {4}: Robz888, Eevee, Galzria, manda2014

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time

A recap on the standing votes:

Frisk vs Timchen is a baseless RVS where timchen threw the first punch and Frisk countered with his own. Nothing to raise the eyebrows here.

Sharky's vote on Frisk is equally baseless in terms of the vote indicating any real suspicion towards Frisk. The vote was made apparently as an effort to get a wagon rolling.

PPS and Nick's votes on Sharky are directly related to the fact that Sharky seemed overeager to get a wagon rolling and  then followed with some comments that were unequivocally scummy.

So, as I see it, the only votes on the table that are based on scummy behavior at this point are the votes on Sharky. I believe there is no doubt why those votes rest there.

What I would like to hear is why those not voting at all and those RVSing view the Sharky behvaior as innocent.

I have further questions but I think if people actually start talking they will answer them so this post is a call to get some action in here and also to challenge my ideas surrounding where my own vote is currently parked.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 17, 2012, 05:30:43 pm
Galz - why are you lurking today?  How long have you been waiting to be mafia paired with a newb so that you could early claim VT and have it look like a n00b mistake?

Yeah, I know. I didn't expect an ACTUAL newb to beat you to the claim though, so disregard that plan.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 17, 2012, 05:31:52 pm

A recap on the standing votes:

Frisk vs Timchen is a baseless RVS where timchen threw the first punch and Frisk countered with his own. Nothing to raise the eyebrows here.


I love messing around during RVS - but my vote against allfail is not pure RVS.  I think there's a legit chance that he is scummy.  He's the one who counter OMGUS voted.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 17, 2012, 05:33:00 pm
@PPS: I can agree that the overeagerness to jump on a wagon is a scummy behavior. But I still don't see why his following comment are scummy. They don't make sense to me (unless frisk is his partner), but I still yet to see why it is scummy. So your saying that it is unequivocally scummy is incorrect.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 17, 2012, 05:33:42 pm
Oh, and frisk is right. He voted me first then I OMGUSly voted back.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 17, 2012, 05:37:40 pm
PPS:

I try my best to vote Mafia, not scum. Voting against S_B is basically saying "I think you're Mafia, involved in an advanced Gambit". Even if it were true, it's not worth pressing today, since we may have investigative roles that can uncover the truth.

To further that thought, the fact that there might be a Cop at ALL should be enough of a deterrent to Mafia to try that sort of Gambit. It's WAY to easy to backfire, ending in a town win.

So: I'm inclined to trust the play as being what it appears. A new player learning the game. We've all been there, and that's what this game is for.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 17, 2012, 05:41:55 pm
Oh, and frisk is right. He voted me first then I OMGUSly voted back.

Stop trying to buddy up to me.  I'm not your friend, guy.

So - I think that SB's claim would be advanced scum play.  I wouldn't expect to see it in this game.  Early claiming VT is probably "anti-town", but I'm going to write it off as newb play until additional evidence suggests otherwise.

(a?) Manda - who are you considering investigating tonight with your rolecop powers?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 17, 2012, 06:10:05 pm
@shark_bait, how many games have you followed?

Also, nice try Frisk ;) And yeah, it's Amanda.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 17, 2012, 06:12:35 pm
I have followed 0 games.  This technically is my second game, but only b/c RM1 started a little less than a day before this one.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 17, 2012, 06:17:56 pm
Stop trying to buddy up to me.  I'm not your friend, guy.
Scumslip! How do you know you are not my friend? Why can two townies not be friends? And a townie won't know whether the other is a friend or not. If you are that certain I am not your friend, the only possibility is that you are mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 17, 2012, 08:11:21 pm
PPS:

I try my best to vote Mafia, not scum. Voting against S_B is basically saying "I think you're Mafia, involved in an advanced Gambit". Even if it were true, it's not worth pressing today, since we may have investigative roles that can uncover the truth.

Excellent perspective: Unvote
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 17, 2012, 08:22:09 pm
@PPS

a) i tend to not throw my vote around lightly unless i'm scum. i'm too paranoid of mafia hammering an unwanted lynch through / i just really want to keep the hammer option on someone i know to be town (myself).

b) s_b's roleclaim business clears him in my head somewhat, not nearly comfortable enough to vote. you seem very eager to lynch him?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 17, 2012, 08:33:51 pm
Stop trying to buddy up to me.  I'm not your friend, guy.
Scumslip! How do you know you are not my friend? Why can two townies not be friends? And a townie won't know whether the other is a friend or not. If you are that certain I am not your friend, the only possibility is that you are mafia.

Friendship is dangerous. We can't KNOW who's town. We're all wary allies at best.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 17, 2012, 08:46:55 pm
Stop trying to buddy up to me.  I'm not your friend, guy.
Scumslip! How do you know you are not my friend? Why can two townies not be friends? And a townie won't know whether the other is a friend or not. If you are that certain I am not your friend, the only possibility is that you are mafia.

http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/165191/im-not-your-friend-guy

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 17, 2012, 09:34:26 pm
@PPS

a) i tend to not throw my vote around lightly unless i'm scum. i'm too paranoid of mafia hammering an unwanted lynch through / i just really want to keep the hammer option on someone i know to be town (myself).

b) s_b's roleclaim business clears him in my head somewhat, not nearly comfortable enough to vote. you seem very eager to lynch him?

I am fail to see how being the 1st vote and then soliciting challenges to my own vote is broadcasting eagerness to lynch. I'm never reluctant to throw down an early vote. As a wagon builds I am much more reticent to cast a vote.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 18, 2012, 01:38:32 am
I still don't like how many (namely C_F and Galz) are so willing to write off S_B's play as a newbie move. Maybe he hasn't lurked here, but it would have been simple enough to read up on Mafia (the game, not allegiance) strategies and tactics and thus devised that claiming VT might be his best bet. As C_F said, he is not a doofus.

I respect Galz's point that we should vote Mafia not vote scum, but, well, this early, scum implies Mafia to some extent. I don't know if I agree with him saying that (assuming there is a Cop and S_B is a Mafia false-claiming) it is a bad move by S_B. All S_B has to do is convince the Cop, and then he's off the hook.

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 18, 2012, 08:16:47 am
Reasons for voting for Frisk:

First - It seems like a little pressure on someone isn't a bad thing per your theory about near lynch's yielding information.

Second - It gives me a solid reason for people to believe that I'm town if the pressure switches to me.

I still don't like how many (namely C_F and Galz) are so willing to write off S_B's play as a newbie move. Maybe he hasn't lurked here, but it would have been simple enough to read up on Mafia (the game, not allegiance) strategies and tactics and thus devised that claiming VT might be his best bet. As C_F said, he is not a doofus.

I respect Galz's point that we should vote Mafia not vote scum, but, well, this early, scum implies Mafia to some extent. I don't know if I agree with him saying that (assuming there is a Cop and S_B is a Mafia false-claiming) it is a bad move by S_B. All S_B has to do is convince the Cop, and then he's off the hook.

If you were mafia - would you be as bold as to come out and say something as obvious as #2? 

Also - according to his profile - he is from holland, so Hij waarschijnlijk beter dan andere talen spreekt hij Engels spreekt.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 18, 2012, 08:27:28 am
It's Holland.... MI.  Not the Netherlands.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 18, 2012, 08:30:33 am
That's not nearly as fun.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 18, 2012, 08:47:04 am
If you were mafia - would you be as bold as to come out and say something as obvious as #2? 

I don't know, the mods have not seen it fit to provide me a Mafia role to date. The implication is that you would not which has a possible subtext that you, yourself, are Mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 18, 2012, 08:59:21 am
Where is RobZ?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 18, 2012, 12:03:43 pm
Where is RobZ?

Right here.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 18, 2012, 12:22:09 pm
Where is RobZ?

Right here.

Well - hey then.  Would you be interested in talking about the game?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 18, 2012, 01:17:28 pm
Where is RobZ?

Right here.

Well - hey then.  Would you be interested in talking about the game?

Sure.

Sharky's role claim was a newb mistake, not a plot by a super intelligent mafia. That doesn't mean his claim is true--he might be a mafia person who just thinks that what you do when somebody accuses you is full claim VT. It's not a sophisticated mafia plot though. I lean toward he is what he says he is.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 18, 2012, 01:22:16 pm
Announcement - I'll be travelling starting Thursday night through Sunday.  I'll of course be lurking via phone, and I'm still working on Friday - so I"m not totally afk.  I will be going to a beer tasting Saturday night - so I'm hoping to have my votes in and uninfluenced by tasty microbrews well in advance.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 18, 2012, 01:22:34 pm
Oh - voting isn't due until 7/28.  Never mind then.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 18, 2012, 01:25:46 pm
Announcement - I'll be travelling starting Thursday night through Sunday.  I'll of course be lurking via phone, and I'm still working on Friday - so I"m not totally afk.  I will be going to a beer tasting Saturday night - so I'm hoping to have my votes in and uninfluenced by tasty microbrews well in advance.

/Jealous

Post updates in the appropriate topic. ;D
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 18, 2012, 01:50:08 pm
http://beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/27039/16814/

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 18, 2012, 01:56:53 pm
I asked for explanations as to why people viewed Sharky as innocent and I got 3 decent responses from Galzria, Robz and Frisky.

Young Nick maintains that Sharky is a dirty bastard despite everyone else's unwillingness to take such a strong stance. I respect this and the question was thusly never directed to Y_N.

Frisky says a noob defense isn't good enough but maintains that timchen is scummier so there lies his vote.

manda is suspicious but apparently won't vote until a wagon is underway which I'm finding slightly scummy.

eevee remains suspicious but also wants to retain his vote but something about how he worded it I find less scummy than manda's motives.

PPS voted on obviously scummy behavior but was willing to rescind his vote because he sees the wisdom in Galzria's analysis and also Robz read on the situation. PPS loves to put votes to see some pressure applied and wishes others would do the same.

Sharky hasn't put up any suspicion on anyone but has sure as hell rolled in the mud of his own accord. if I were a town shark_bait I'd be staying low and if I were a mafia shark_bait I'd either lay low or try to push the heat in a different direction. neutral read.

Robz has said he is suspicious of Young Nick for basically doing the same as manda and eevee in being suspicious but withholding vote. Y_N responded by casting a vote which he maintains on what I perceive to be solid grounds and which seems to be supported by manda and eevee although not without votes which should, in Robz argument make those two people suspicious.

I've got nothing but Town read from Galzria the whole game.

timchen seems willing to start a fray but no one really wants to play this game it seems. no read on timchen at this time.




Sooo.... out of all that I gather that manda deserves the closest scrutiny. She seems to have a very strong technical grasp on the game which is great for town if she's town. Unfortunately most of her paly has been neutral in terms of applying pressure or providing any real feedback. With such technical grasp but such low key play I'm beginning to wonder what manda's real alignment is.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 18, 2012, 01:59:03 pm
PPS, do you consider yourself a "crazy" player?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 18, 2012, 02:02:53 pm
I can concur that manda was stalking Mafia IV quite a bit... I kept seeing her and wondering if she was someone else's alt account spying on the game without giving away their online presence.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 18, 2012, 02:10:01 pm
PPS, do you consider yourself a "crazy" player?

In M-VI I am a nutcase. The cast is too large, it moves too fast and most everyone's acumen is too high relative to my complete lack of experience.

Here, the cast is much smaller, most folk's acumen is at or below my own and things are certainly moving slowly enough for me to keep up.

So, for this particular game of Mafia I would classify myself as mostly sane. It is quite understandable that my behavior in M-VI would lead you to believe otherwise.

All that said, I am apparently a bit more willing to place votes just to elicit reaction which makes me more of a cowboy than most in here to date.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 18, 2012, 02:54:21 pm
So PPS - are you suggesting that we start voting for Manda - or is there something you'd like to hear from her?

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 18, 2012, 03:13:35 pm
I want to hear from her.

Hell, I want to hear from anyone, really. Let's hear others' thoughts on manda or anything else I've said.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 18, 2012, 03:42:27 pm
Sorry I'm just now getting around to posting. Crazy busy last night and I just got off work. I feel bad that I haven't been posting on here maybe as often as I should. But RL stuff has been a bit crazy the last couple of days. Aaaaanyway... as to not having voted or posted much analysis yet, in all honesty I haven't had a chance to sit down and really do much in depth analysis. Right now my suspicions, as I said before, still rest on Sharky, but I'll post a better analysis and perhaps a vote later tonight after I have a chance to really sit down and look at things. I don't really like to throw out votes at random. As to "stalking" Mafia IV, I promise I'm not anyone's alt account. I know DSell IRL, and he's the one who told me about f.ds and about Mafia and I decided I'd follow his games; nothing sneaky about that.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 18, 2012, 03:45:02 pm
I know DSell IRL

Then you are scum by association?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 18, 2012, 03:45:52 pm
That would make loads of sense, if it had any bearing on the PMs Volt sent out XD
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Robz888 on July 18, 2012, 03:51:52 pm
Vote Count 1-4

timchen (1): Captain_Frisk
Captain_Frisk (2): timchen, shark_bait
shark_bait (2): pingpongsam, Young Nick

Not Voting {4}: Robz888, Eevee, Galzria, manda2014

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time

Just tossing out ideas, do we think both scum are voting right now? They probably aren't voting for the same person, if they are both voting.

Maybe 1 scum among the nonvoters? From my perspective, that's Galzria, manda, and Eevee. But even if you throw me in, that's 1 scum out of 4. Much better odds than 2 out of 9.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 18, 2012, 03:55:32 pm
Vote Count 1-4

timchen (1): Captain_Frisk
Captain_Frisk (2): timchen, shark_bait
shark_bait (2): pingpongsam, Young Nick

Not Voting {4}: Robz888, Eevee, Galzria, manda2014

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time

Just tossing out ideas, do we think both scum are voting right now? They probably aren't voting for the same person, if they are both voting.

Maybe 1 scum among the nonvoters? From my perspective, that's Galzria, manda, and Eevee. But even if you throw me in, that's 1 scum out of 4. Much better odds than 2 out of 9.

Are you worse at math than Galz?

1/4 = 25%
2/9 = 22.22% 

A modest improvement, but not "much better" odds.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Robz888 on July 18, 2012, 03:56:46 pm
Are you worse at math than Galz?

Yes

1/4 = 25%
2/9 = 22.22% 

A modest improvement, but not "much better" odds.

I was being vaguely sarcastic.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 18, 2012, 03:59:08 pm
RobZ - what do you think about Galz not voting yet?  He isn't one to avoid RVS like you are.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Galzria on July 18, 2012, 04:02:52 pm
Vote Count 1-4

timchen (1): Captain_Frisk
Captain_Frisk (2): timchen, shark_bait
shark_bait (2): pingpongsam, Young Nick

Not Voting {4}: Robz888, Eevee, Galzria, manda2014

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time

Just tossing out ideas, do we think both scum are voting right now? They probably aren't voting for the same person, if they are both voting.

Maybe 1 scum among the nonvoters? From my perspective, that's Galzria, manda, and Eevee. But even if you throw me in, that's 1 scum out of 4. Much better odds than 2 out of 9.

Are you worse at math than Galz?

1/4 = 25%
2/9 = 22.22% 

A modest improvement, but not "much better" odds.

 >:(

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 18, 2012, 04:13:46 pm
RobZ - what do you think about Galz not voting yet?  He isn't one to avoid RVS like you are.

I don't know. This game's simplicity compared MIII, MIV, MV, and MVI is jarring, frankly. I am basically at a loss for how to proceed.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 18, 2012, 04:15:29 pm
RobZ - what do you think about Galz not voting yet?  He isn't one to avoid RVS like you are.

I don't know. This game's simplicity compared MIII, MIV, MV, and MVI is jarring, frankly. I am basically at a loss for how to proceed.

It's a good thing the game was seeded with some experience so there would be a lead to follow. ;)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 18, 2012, 04:17:24 pm
RobZ - what do you think about Galz not voting yet?  He isn't one to avoid RVS like you are.

I don't know. This game's simplicity compared MIII, MIV, MV, and MVI is jarring, frankly. I am basically at a loss for how to proceed.

It's a good thing the game was seeded with some experience so there would be a lead to follow. ;)

Ha! I like this.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 18, 2012, 04:20:12 pm
Where is my +1 button?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Eevee on July 18, 2012, 04:49:11 pm
Sorry I'm just now getting around to posting. Crazy busy last night and I just got off work. I feel bad that I haven't been posting on here maybe as often as I should. But RL stuff has been a bit crazy the last couple of days. Aaaaanyway... as to not having voted or posted much analysis yet, in all honesty I haven't had a chance to sit down and really do much in depth analysis. Right now my suspicions, as I said before, still rest on Sharky, but I'll post a better analysis and perhaps a vote later tonight after I have a chance to really sit down and look at things. I don't really like to throw out votes at random. As to "stalking" Mafia IV, I promise I'm not anyone's alt account. I know DSell IRL, and he's the one who told me about f.ds and about Mafia and I decided I'd follow his games; nothing sneaky about that.
Okay, I was reading through the stuff and manda's apologetic tone here screams scum to me. In general a townie is doing the best he/she can to help town, where mafia is trying to do the bare minimum (to look like town).. and I read the post below as manda being worried she is starting to look like she isnt helping and apologizing for that in a "i really am trying though!" kind of way. In my experience townies dont feel they owe anything to town, but mafia sort of does (need to do something in order to not show their true colors).



Vote Count 1-4

timchen (1): Captain_Frisk
Captain_Frisk (2): timchen, shark_bait
shark_bait (2): pingpongsam, Young Nick

Not Voting {4}: Robz888, Eevee, Galzria, manda2014

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time

Just tossing out ideas, do we think both scum are voting right now? They probably aren't voting for the same person, if they are both voting.

Maybe 1 scum among the nonvoters? From my perspective, that's Galzria, manda, and Eevee. But even if you throw me in, that's 1 scum out of 4. Much better odds than 2 out of 9.
I think neither of the mafiosos voting atm is super unlikely (so by this logic, in the group of robz, me, galzria and manda2014, there is one mafia or no mafia at all). Wouldnt rule out both voting already, but I too think one voting one not voting is the most likely situation.
I'm starting to feel I always play town too cautious and should be more active as a scumhunter so Vote: manda.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 18, 2012, 04:55:34 pm
Consider the following regarding the SBD (shark_bait debacle).  Three people know more information than everyone else.  Me... and the Mafia.  Let's assume that these are mutually exclusive (i.e. I'm not Mafia).  Therefore, the 2 Mafia, know that I am NOT Mafia, something that the town doesn't know.  What better guise for the mafia than to not trust me.  By not trusting me, they are donning the appearance of town.  I don't think both would do something like this, but it wouldn't surprise me if one of them took this approach.  There have been 2 people thus far who showed an initial very distrusting stand towards me, PPS and Young Nick.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 18, 2012, 05:00:52 pm
Is this fuzzy clearing out of the "not voting" bucket to avoid RobZ suspicion?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 18, 2012, 05:02:34 pm
RobZ - what do you think about Galz not voting yet?  He isn't one to avoid RVS like you are.

I don't know. This game's simplicity compared MIII, MIV, MV, and MVI is jarring, frankly. I am basically at a loss for how to proceed.

Actually, I am! I've been greatly working on not just randomly voting during RVS! Look at D1 for... erm... well, needless to say, I voted after Robz did in a certain other game!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 18, 2012, 05:19:28 pm
Vote Count 1-5

timchen (1): Captain_Frisk
Captain_Frisk (2): timchen, shark_bait
shark_bait (1): Young Nick
manda2014 (1): Eevee

Not Voting {4}: Robz888, Galzria, manda2014, pingpongsam

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: manda2014 on July 18, 2012, 05:27:04 pm
In my experience townies dont feel they owe anything to town, but mafia sort of does (need to do something in order to not show their true colors).

The second part of this makes sense. Of course mafia need to look like town if they want to survive. However, while town players don't NEED to actively work to prove themselves to be town (as I've said previously, sometimes a townie may end up having to "take one for the team" to provide the town with some critical info; this isn't an individual game), they DO "owe something to the town." They ARE town. It's their duty to help get rid of the mafia and save the town. So I AM sorry if I've not been as helpful as I could have/should have been.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 18, 2012, 05:30:06 pm
Consider the following regarding the SBD (shark_bait debacle).  Three people know more information than everyone else.  Me... and the Mafia.  Let's assume that these are mutually exclusive (i.e. I'm not Mafia).  Therefore, the 2 Mafia, know that I am NOT Mafia, something that the town doesn't know.  What better guise for the mafia than to not trust me.  By not trusting me, they are donning the appearance of town.  I don't think both would do something like this, but it wouldn't surprise me if one of them took this approach.  There have been 2 people thus far who showed an initial very distrusting stand towards me, PPS and Young Nick.

Why would you equate a call for scrutiny scumminess? What reasons have you provided for anyone to trust you; shouldn't we all be distrustful of one another? Why do you choose to deflect attention to others rather than answer the concerns already directed towards you?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 18, 2012, 05:33:01 pm
Consider the following regarding the SBD (shark_bait debacle).  Three people know more information than everyone else.  Me... and the Mafia.  Let's assume that these are mutually exclusive (i.e. I'm not Mafia).  Therefore, the 2 Mafia, know that I am NOT Mafia, something that the town doesn't know.  What better guise for the mafia than to not trust me.  By not trusting me, they are donning the appearance of town.  I don't think both would do something like this, but it wouldn't surprise me if one of them took this approach.  There have been 2 people thus far who showed an initial very distrusting stand towards me, PPS and Young Nick.

I don't really see how the mafia looking distrustful of you would make them look like town. They're going to end up voting for someone (most likely), and it seems to me that, generally, the people who start up the wagons get the bulk of the suspicion when that person turns up town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 18, 2012, 06:07:03 pm
Consider the following regarding the SBD (shark_bait debacle).  Three people know more information than everyone else.  Me... and the Mafia.  Let's assume that these are mutually exclusive (i.e. I'm not Mafia).  Therefore, the 2 Mafia, know that I am NOT Mafia, something that the town doesn't know.  What better guise for the mafia than to not trust me.  By not trusting me, they are donning the appearance of town.  I don't think both would do something like this, but it wouldn't surprise me if one of them took this approach.  There have been 2 people thus far who showed an initial very distrusting stand towards me, PPS and Young Nick.

So, S_B, should C_F assume one of (or both of) you and timchen are Mafia? Or what happens if three townies each get two votes on them? Then by your logic there should definitely be three Mafia. I understand that when someone votes for you, you want to think that they're Mafia, but the odds are not in your favor in that regard.

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 18, 2012, 06:19:30 pm
I would like to hear more from timchen - what is your read on the game currently?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 18, 2012, 06:29:01 pm
I don't really see how the mafia looking distrustful of you would make them look like town. They're going to end up voting for someone (most likely), and it seems to me that, generally, the people who start up the wagons get the bulk of the suspicion when that person turns up town.

A wagon against me has very VERY legitimate claims due to the way that I have posted.  So if they do get a successful lynch on me and if I do turn up town, they base their vote on the nature of my posts thus detracting from the fact that town was lynched.

Why would you equate a call for scrutiny scumminess? What reasons have you provided for anyone to trust you; shouldn't we all be distrustful of one another? Why do you choose to deflect attention to others rather than answer the concerns already directed towards you?

I just wanted to raise a point that assuming I'm town, mafia could act accordingly and start a relatively safe wagon due to the nature of my posts.  To address you assertation of me deflecting attention rather than answering concerns, in complete honesty, I don't have any clue how to address them.  My first few mafia posts here were rather "on the fly" and I didn't think very much.  This was especially true of my vote on Frisk where I read timchen's previous post and within 10 seconds, had thought to myself, "Hey, why not get things started?"  I guess one thing I can say is that currently, you have no reason to trust me whatsoever, but perhaps a lynch on me/cop investigation can make these past few pages be read from my point of view. 


So, S_B, should C_F assume one of (or both of) you and timchen are Mafia? Or what happens if three townies each get two votes on them? Then by your logic there should definitely be three Mafia. I understand that when someone votes for you, you want to think that they're Mafia, but the odds are not in your favor in that regard.

I don't think Frisk should assume that timchen or I am mafia.  It depends on the context of the votes.  i.e.  Scummy vs. Baseless.  I seem scummy, so votes against me were purposeful and directed and not without reason.  Other votes, like the one's on CF are not grounded in fact, thus should not be taken in the same light as the votes placed against me.  Not to say that a mafia wouldn't do something like that.  I just want to point out that I don't think 2 votes on someone automatically equates one of them as being mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 18, 2012, 06:45:27 pm
Sharky's most recent post seems to me to give off much more of that mafiapologetic tone that Eevee was talking about with regard to me. When that is added to all the other scummy behaviors he's exhibited that coouuuuld be excused as newbie mistakes (claiming, questionable logic in defense of his vote against Frisk, etc.), I'm inclined to think that he's mafia using his newbie-ness to his advantage than town making genuine mistakes. From what I've seen following mafia, the "I'm new guys, don't shoot" defense isn't tolerated long, and I don't think it should really work here either.

Vote: shark_bait
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 18, 2012, 07:02:13 pm
I would like to hear more from timchen - what is your read on the game currently?
My read is stuck at MVI right now. need some time to switch...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 18, 2012, 07:04:02 pm
Not that I have time for a long post, but I do understand how S_B sees the votes on him as different than the votes on C_F. Or I guess the nature of the votes is different, I should say. I am going to point out the obvious and strongly suggest that no one else votes for S_B to prevent a quick-hammer. In fact, as a precaution until I get back and can post more,

Unvote
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 18, 2012, 07:40:50 pm
Sharky's most recent post seems to me to give off much more of that mafiapologetic tone that Eevee was talking about with regard to me. When that is added to all the other scummy behaviors he's exhibited that coouuuuld be excused as newbie mistakes (claiming, questionable logic in defense of his vote against Frisk, etc.), I'm inclined to think that he's mafia using his newbie-ness to his advantage than town making genuine mistakes. From what I've seen following mafia, the "I'm new guys, don't shoot" defense isn't tolerated long, and I don't think it should really work here either.

Vote: shark_bait

Interesting read. I took it all as pretty innocent and  apparently, Young_Nick did as well. Your use of the word "Mafiapologetic" is both humorous and offers an interesting lense to reread the post. You stated that wagon starters get the bulk of the suspicion when the lynch flips town. Then you acted on your original intuition and cast an early vote on Sharky.

As a Mafia move it is ballsy (esp for a female) but potentially dissonant enough to disarm the D2 scrutiny. As a Town move it is also fairly solid because as Town you can sustain further scrutiny without error. As a Mafia move it gets you out of the laconic stage that was causing me and possibly Robz (by virtue of his statement) to be suspicious. As a Town move it galvanizes other Townies to act on shared suspicion.

My god, it's the WIFOM.

I have some reservations about the notion that a Mafia would throw in the towel so easily. Sharky's attitude is in-line with a VT role as claimed in that losing him doesn't mortally wound Town and it provides a new lense for us all to peer through. Mafia only has 2 members (if I got the damned intro info right this time) and a single loss is a mortal blow.

More WIFOM, argh.

For now, I'm willing to reconsider Sharky's response through your interpretation and, combined with the early faux pas, Vote: Shark_Bait again.


Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 18, 2012, 08:06:36 pm
Vote Count 1-6

timchen (1): Captain_Frisk
Captain_Frisk (2): timchen, shark_bait
shark_bait (2): manda2014, pingpongsam
manda2014 (1): Eevee

Not Voting {3}: Robz888, Galzria, Young Nick

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 18, 2012, 09:13:35 pm
timchen - still waiting for your read here.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 18, 2012, 10:31:17 pm
Back at a computer. Nothing new.

Vote: Shark_Bait
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 18, 2012, 11:08:35 pm
I don't like the Sharky bandwagon. Time to start a new one.

Vote: Pingpongsam
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 18, 2012, 11:10:49 pm
I don't like the Sharky bandwagon. Time to start a new one.

Vote: Pingpongsam

How... Unusual of you?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 18, 2012, 11:14:46 pm
This is indeed unusual.  I too was planning on changing my vote.... but not to pingpongsam.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 18, 2012, 11:14:56 pm
I don't like the Sharky bandwagon. Time to start a new one.

Vote: Pingpongsam

How... Unusual of you?

I know. I like to be spontaneous.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 18, 2012, 11:17:45 pm
My actions have garnered quite a bit of discussion already, no need to keep this up.

unvote
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 18, 2012, 11:21:59 pm
So RobZ - would you like to explain your vote?  My current read on PPS is of the "mislynch waiting to happen" variety.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 18, 2012, 11:33:45 pm
So RobZ - would you like to explain your vote?  My current read on PPS is of the "mislynch waiting to happen" variety.

We'll never know for sure unless we lynch him.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 18, 2012, 11:37:38 pm
That is a good argument.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 18, 2012, 11:56:39 pm
Ok. Catching back up. Since the players here are not too many I can actually do a list!

shark_bait: slightly scummy. If were scum I will lynch frisk next.
frisk: mostly neutral, but I am still curious on he pointing out #2 in shark's reply. See below.
eevee: no read. lurking.
manda: slightly town. Young Nick's accusation does not make sense to me.
Robz: lurking.
PPS: if I have to choose an obv. town except myself it is my choice here.
Young Nick: neutral for now.
Galzria: another obv. town, not as obvious as PPS though.

So the main thing I see here is still how people react to the #2 comment from shark. Personally I only find it illogical, not scummy. Again I would be very glad if someone can point out how that comment is scummy. The fact that frisk "coaches" and shark immediately listens looks really bad from my eyes. I don't have strong reads on any others, but from the posts Galz and PPS are the most likely townies to me.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 19, 2012, 04:31:16 am
Vote Count 1-7

timchen (1): Captain_Frisk
Captain_Frisk (1): timchen
shark_bait (3): manda2014, pingpongsam, Young Nick
manda2014 (1): Eevee
pingpongsam (1): Robz888

Not Voting {2}: Galzria, shark_bait

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 19, 2012, 08:45:20 am
The #2 comment is scummy (in my mind) because as other people have pointed out - townies don't need to be concerned with the perception of whether or not they are town.

The argument is also illogical (why would voting for me make him appear to be town), but the fact that this is something he is concerned with is scummy.

If you are lynched as VT on day 1 - you are providing a service to the town.  This isn't something I fully understood in my first game, and why I'm willing to give him a 1 day pass.  Nobody wants to be lynched - especially in their first game.

Vote: Manda2014

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 19, 2012, 09:15:31 am
The #2 comment is scummy (in my mind) because as other people have pointed out - townies don't need to be concerned with the perception of whether or not they are town.

The argument is also illogical (why would voting for me make him appear to be town), but the fact that this is something he is concerned with is scummy.

If you are lynched as VT on day 1 - you are providing a service to the town.  This isn't something I fully understood in my first game, and why I'm willing to give him a 1 day pass.  Nobody wants to be lynched - especially in their first game.

Vote: Manda2014

Well, getting lynched as a VT is online providing a service to the town if it inspires good discussion. Considering this, I could see how he does not yet want to be lynched... there hasn't been THAT much conversation thus far.

On another note, could you explain why you vote Manda?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 19, 2012, 09:18:38 am
Manda lynch is panda lynch?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 19, 2012, 09:19:56 am
Seriously though - i felt that her vote on SB was pressured when she was called out for not voting - and I think she's read enough mafia to really have a sense that shark_bait's play is more likely noob than scum.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 19, 2012, 09:24:27 am
Heading to jury duty right now, so no time to post. I'll be around this afternoon, though.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 19, 2012, 09:26:29 am
Guilty!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 19, 2012, 09:41:18 am
Hey! I'm at jury duty right now hanging out in the juror's lounge playing iso. If I didn't have wifi I probably would have killed myself out of sheer boredom already.

manda you wouldn't happen to serve in DC by chance would you?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 19, 2012, 12:15:55 pm
Whoops, realized I'd neglected this thread for a day.

So I'm a bit torn. I stand pretty strongly by the fact that even the potential presence of a cop should be enough to deter a Mafia S_B from even attempting a Gambit like claiming VT. Even if a Mafia S_B decided to try it anyway, he should at least be given the night for a cop to confirm/deny his claim.

That said, I'm a little wary of the people still pushing for his lynch. Drawing from experience however, it's usually town that pushes bad wagons along with their votes. Back in M-II, when Robz and I were new scumlings, he pushed hard for Morgrim with his voice, while only adding his vote at a later time. I also didn't climb aboard until late, denouncing many of Robz's arguments as "straw-man" cases. That said, I chose to apply pressure elsewhere by placing my vote on bozzball. Incidentally, the choice of bozzball was that (aside from his nature as a player), his vote was not on Morgrim - so I could tie them together as partners.

Why is all of that relevant you ask? Well, because I'm not convinced that there is scum voting for S_B right now. There have been a few reasoned arguments, including my own why he should live to see the night at the least. It would look rather scummy to ignore those, and continue to think S_B is scum. But I'm here to find and lynch Mafia, not scum.

So, I'm looking at Eevee, Robz, Captain_Frisk, and timchen.

Eevee: Not normally a lurker. FoS Fuzzy. Come play.

Robz: Also lurking, but in a lot of games. He is mixing up his playstyle,, which could be to throw a former teammate (me) off his scummy tail. Or he could be genuinely interested in trying new things.

CF: He makes a lot of sense. Almost too much sense. Alright, I can't hold that against him, but I COULD see him and Timchen working as a team. Their RVS OMGUS votes could have been preplanned. I mean, who would expect scummies to come out playing towards each other like that? ME! That's who! Still, that's about all I have to go on at the moment.

Timchen: Matches much of what's said about CF, except that his overall play has given me a slightly more negative vibe. Not to mention (and this is really, personally unfair - but it's how I feel) anybody who reads me (or anybody else) as "obvtown" gets a huge FoS from me. Not only do I detest the term, I find it MUCH more in the repertoire of scum than town. Scum need friends. Town needs to stay on it's toes. Timchen is definitely highest up on my list, but still not high enough to vote yet.

Oh, and let's not forget me! Hi! I'm not voting S_B, but I'm not scum either! My role PM proves it... Unless this is a Bastard Game...?

So: That's where I'm at. Thoughts?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 19, 2012, 12:51:22 pm
I WISH I was in DC. Alas, I'm wasting away in Texas.

Anyway,

Seriously though - i felt that her vote on SB was pressured when she was called out for not voting - and I think she's read enough mafia to really have a sense that shark_bait's play is more likely noob than scum.

I was planning on voting soon anyway. I'd already stated a few times that I found Sharky's play to be suspicious, and I decided I might as well vote. Could it be noob play? Sure, but it still feels really scummy to me. What Galz says (and I realize this is a reiteration of an earlier point) about not just lynching people because they read scummy does make sense, and I'm not certain I'm going to leave my vote on Sharky; perhaps letting him survive the night could provide us with some more information. But, for now, my vote rests.

I'd also like to point out that Robz's play seems really strange to me... from what I've read, Robz, you're NOT spontaneous. A lot of WIFOM in this though... I'd tend to think that Robz wouldn't do anything out of character like that to draw attention to himself if he were scum, which may mean that he is scum and he knows we'd think he wouldn't change it up if he were scum and is using that to his advantage, etc. I'm not very suspicious yet, but it's enough to keep me interested.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 19, 2012, 12:57:07 pm
I think it might be a mistake to assume Town has a cop. Also, I don't quite understand how a Town cop could communicate alignment without divulging his/her role.

What we know is that there are only 2 Mafia and one of them IS a cop. If  Sharky is one of those members then there is a 50% chance he is the cop. We, on the other hand, potentially have 2 PRs and their identity would be wholly protected if we did nab the Mafia cop. Going out on an equally precarious limb as presupposing we have a Town cop we can presuppose we have a cop AND a doctor. If we pop the Mafia cop the first night the Town cop is free to divulge identity for the Doctor to protect and then Town's scumhunting capabilities are on steroids.

So, looking at this strictly from a risk vs reward analysis the question becomes whether or not the potential reward of getting Mafia's cop before the 1st night begins is worth the potential downside that Sharky flips Town which would still provide good information.

That said, I concede that if Sharky is scum but not the cop then we are better off hunting for their cop not only to neuter the PR capabilities of the scumteam but also because Sharky appears to be a fairly craptastic Mafia. I don't know what Voltgloss' Alignment/Role selection process was but I'm guessing he would have paired a noob with one of the more experienced people to comprise the Mafia team. If Sharky is the noob and not the cop role then finding the experienced cop player would be the the best possible lynch. However, by virtue of being the more experienced player they are not going to be hanging out there for easy pickings. They might be lurking... They might bus their teammate... I really am running out juices on this post at this point because I too easily drift down all the logical branches.




All that said, this idea of lynch mafia not scum sounds great coming off the keyboard but exactly how is that accomplished? When is scummy behavior too obvious to be actually scumtell? What is a Mafiatell versus a scumtell?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 19, 2012, 01:00:27 pm
I don't know what Voltgloss' Alignment/Role selection process was but I'm guessing he would have paired a noob with one of the more experienced people to comprise the Mafia team.

Roles and alignments were distributed entirely randomly.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 19, 2012, 01:05:48 pm
YaY, a logical corridor I can now ignore! ;D
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 19, 2012, 01:06:07 pm
All that said, this idea of lynch mafia not scum sounds great coming off the keyboard but exactly how is that accomplished? When is scummy behavior too obvious to be actually scumtell? What is a Mafiatell versus a scumtell?

I have never been able to get an answer to this question.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 19, 2012, 01:15:04 pm
All that said, this idea of lynch mafia not scum sounds great coming off the keyboard but exactly how is that accomplished? When is scummy behavior too obvious to be actually scumtell? What is a Mafiatell versus a scumtell?

I have never been able to get an answer to this question.

O is the only one who's ever left a Mafiatell, in M-IV. Every other person who has ever been lynched due to anything (read: "scummy behavior") other than direct PR influence has been town. Every single person.

Like, it's rather scummy to still be pushing a S_B lunch at this point. But that doesn't make you all high Mafia suspects.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 19, 2012, 01:17:36 pm
Yeah - some movement in here.  Who do you find scummy Mr. Zria?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 19, 2012, 01:27:52 pm
All that said, this idea of lynch mafia not scum sounds great coming off the keyboard but exactly how is that accomplished? When is scummy behavior too obvious to be actually scumtell? What is a Mafiatell versus a scumtell?

I have never been able to get an answer to this question.

Well, scumplay is accidental bad townplay, mafia play is always intentional. Our job is to figure out if the guy who messed up is sincere in his apologies or just sorry he got caught.

I'm sorry I've beem lurkish. I've actually been online and reading, just finding it hard to find anything to say. Galzrias assessment "scum isnt voting for s_b atm" feels super far-fetched, dont really agree you can now that.. unless you are scum obv.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 19, 2012, 01:43:04 pm
Yeah - some movement in here.  Who do you find scummy Mr. Zria?

I believe I covered that not two posts ago?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 19, 2012, 01:49:43 pm
so you throw up 3 fingers of suspicion, but no voting, no active scum hunting etc.   Is this game too vanilla for you?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 19, 2012, 01:53:36 pm
so you throw up 3 fingers of suspicion, but no voting, no active scum hunting etc.   Is this game too vanilla for you?

I'm guilty of a pops of ctown - this is directed @ galzria.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 19, 2012, 02:09:56 pm
so you throw up 3 fingers of suspicion, but no voting, no active scum hunting etc.   Is this game too vanilla for you?

Awfully defensive?

I'm not as liberal with my vote these days. Go back and look at my history throughout more recent, or even ongoing games. Some people like to throw it around, but I'm becoming more and more lenient with it, voicing my suspicions first.

As for not scumhunting, I disagree. I narrowed the field based on intuition and previous games. Much like M-III, and as I've indicated before, I like to scrutinize the Vets first before the new players, because I have a notion going in about what to look for in their playstyle.

The fact that most of the four I listed have been flying well under the radar wasn't lost on me either - as that's consistently been where the scum lie in games past.

So I looked at the behavioral patterns of those four. Very brief, but focused on what stood out to me. f.DS has a great tradition of persecuting town for "scummy" behavior, and letting the Mafia get by without a second glance.

I'm interested that you take such abrupt offense to my methods.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 19, 2012, 02:16:29 pm
Oh - sorry Galz - I totally missed your mega post. 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 19, 2012, 02:20:35 pm
Oh - sorry Galz - I totally missed your mega post.
:o
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 19, 2012, 02:23:26 pm
Oh - sorry Galz - I totally missed your mega post.
:o
Hmm yeah? Could be scum realizing its mistake, could be a legit "I missed a post there" moment. *C_F's mafia % goes up a bit in my head.*
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 19, 2012, 02:34:41 pm
I truly just missed the post @ 12:15 forum time.  When i refreshed after lunch I saw Manda's note about jury duty in texas, the mod's note on randomized roles, and just kept reading from there.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 19, 2012, 02:58:04 pm
@PPS: I have no idea how you would go about hunting for role=cop instead of goon. Especially D1 where (to my knowledge), the role-cop has not even had a chance to investigate, so the two are on equal footing. It seems like a shot in the dark. Also, I am going to go ahead and discard the idea of assuming we have a cop and doctor. It'd be nice for that to happen, but let's face it, it's not all that likely, and you only discussed that coupled with a correct D1 lynch. That's a lot of hypotheticals to consider.

@Galzria: I like what you have to say except that I would imagine the cop might want to investigate someone else. We know a decent amount about S_B due to his number of posts, but there are, as you state, plenty of lurkers. If we have a cop, we shouldn't assume S_B will be the target of investigation if he even makes it to tonight. Overall, this is the cleanest argument I've heard for not voting S_B so far.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 19, 2012, 03:01:20 pm
Yeah, not settling for vanilla mafia is just crazy talk. How about we be the first (?) game of mafia in f.Ds that lynched mafia of any kind on day 1 first..
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 19, 2012, 03:03:48 pm
Maybe this should go in Puzzles and Challenges, but what's the fastest way for Mafia or Town to win in any of the six current set ups?

My answer: Night 1: Lynch Mafia and have other Mafia night-kill himself/herself. :D
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 19, 2012, 03:41:56 pm
Vote Count 1-8

Captain_Frisk (1): timchen
shark_bait (3): manda2014, pingpongsam, Young Nick
manda2014 (2): Eevee, Captain_Frisk
pingpongsam (1): Robz888

Not Voting {2}: Galzria, shark_bait

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Grujah on July 19, 2012, 03:48:18 pm
Maybe this should go in Puzzles and Challenges, but what's the fastest way for Mafia or Town to win in any of the six current set ups?

My answer: Night 1: Lynch Mafia and have other Mafia night-kill himself/herself. :D

Got faster:
Both mafia get modkilled D1.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 19, 2012, 04:05:57 pm
I was assuming no inactivity or other behavior to warrant mod-killing. :/
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 19, 2012, 09:13:33 pm
Sharky isn't voting. Sharky is, effectively not counter attacking or defending self. Somehow I find this oddly not Mafia. For a 2 person team and a 60% wagon I'd think there'd be a struggle, some diversion, something.

Unvote

I'd like to read the remaining people voting Sharky so I pose this question:

If you were truly VT and had made some grave slips that could be leveraged by scum against you what would you be doing in the face of a growing wagon on you?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 19, 2012, 11:11:17 pm
If you were truly VT and had made some grave slips that could be leveraged by scum against you what would you be doing in the face of a growing wagon on you?
I thought this is an interesting question! But as a VT, you probably have nothing to slip anyway. So, if you are reasonable, explain what others deem suspicious in a reasonable way. And if the town is determined to lynch you, I guess, not much you can do. Personally I will try to organize my suspicions and make a final speech before lynch.  ;)

Not that speech would be particularly useful to the town though. I would say most of the time the guess from a single VT hostile the whole town is pretty far away from truth. But just in case I luck out I can brag afterwards.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 20, 2012, 12:57:47 am
If you were truly VT and had made some grave slips that could be leveraged by scum against you what would you be doing in the face of a growing wagon on you?

Hmmm I like this question. And I have to say I agree with timchen: if you're town, you have nothing to feel guilty or defensive about. I'd just explain my actions as best I can and, if I get lynched, I get lynched. As I've said before, sometimes you have to take one for the team. Obviously I'd rather stay in the game, but if I'm lynched and the wagon gives the town more information, then oh well.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 20, 2012, 03:30:37 am
I agree with the question posed by PPS and the answers to it, but I still can't help but shake the thought that this is just advanced play. It seems like S_B is just letting himself slip out from under our scrutinizing noses (see what I did there, eh?) by not posting and playing like he's not concerned. Yeah,  there's a good chance that he could be VT, but if he is town, it doesn't even seem that the cop would feel the need to investigate him at this point.

I have a similar question for all of you guys. If you were the cop, would you feel a need to investigate S_B tonight if he is still alive? If not, who would you investigate instead?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 20, 2012, 03:41:46 am
I think the Cop should probably investigate me or Galzria or Frisk. That way he/she knows whether they can trust our veteran reads.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 20, 2012, 07:34:28 am
I think the Cop should probably investigate me or Galzria or Frisk. That way he/she knows whether they can trust our veteran reads.
In general I'd be wary of people instructing the cop. Especially if they say "veteran players" and forget to include one veteran player (me).

My suggestion for the cop: Give it some thought and do what you feel is the best for town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 20, 2012, 07:35:00 am
I think the Cop should probably investigate me or Galzria or Frisk. That way he/she knows whether they can trust our veteran reads.
In general I'd be wary of people instructing the cop. Especially if they say "veteran players" and forget to include one veteran player (me).

My suggestion for the cop: Give it some thought and do what you feel is the best for town.
The cop = any power role we might have.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 20, 2012, 09:26:11 am
I think the Cop should probably investigate me or Galzria or Frisk. That way he/she knows whether they can trust our veteran reads.

Just to be clear again - i'm hardly a veteran.  I've actually never successfully lynched scum.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 20, 2012, 09:27:50 am
I think the Cop should probably investigate me or Galzria or Frisk. That way he/she knows whether they can trust our veteran reads.

Just to be clear again - i'm hardly a veteran.  I've actually never successfully lynched scum.

You'll have a hard time succeeding in this game then, won't you?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 20, 2012, 09:39:56 am
It's so demoralizing to lynch town.  You in M3, RobZ in M5, everyone in M4. 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 20, 2012, 09:50:16 am
It's so demoralizing to lynch town.  You in M3, RobZ in M5, everyone in M4.

I agree. So let's lynch you instead! Alternatively, you could out your scumbuddy, and I promise we'll let you live for a day. ;D
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 20, 2012, 10:13:33 am
I think we really need RobZ to come over here and tell us who he investigated last night.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 20, 2012, 11:22:02 am
I have a similar question for all of you guys. If you were the cop, would you feel a need to investigate S_B tonight if he is still alive? If not, who would you investigate instead?

If Sharky made it to N1 alive I would certainly be interested to know if the D1 wagon was on course. However, if a new face jumps up D2 pressing for Sharky's head it could be strong softclaim to the cop role which would be dangerous for Town.

A night action is only going to happen on a deadline or a lynch and judging from previous games a lynch seems most likely. In that case I'd probably be looking at the hammer vote but it really depends on the circumstances of the lynch. I can't say there's a definite name I'd assign right now but that may change as we approach deadline. Failing any substantial lead I would possibly make a random selection to investigate.

All that said I've not seen the advantage of a D1 lynch but the pros tell me it's the thing to do.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 20, 2012, 11:39:13 am
Vote Count 1-9

Captain_Frisk (1): timchen
shark_bait (2): manda2014, Young Nick
manda2014 (2): Eevee, Captain_Frisk
pingpongsam (1): Robz888

Not Voting {3}: Galzria, shark_bait, pingpongsam

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 20, 2012, 11:47:25 am
Let's see if I can explain the D1 lynch concept.

First - lets look at the low number cases

3 people.  Lynching 1 at random results in 2/3 chance of killing town.  However - failing to do so lets mafia have a night kill - and the game is over.  Clearly - lynching is the right decision.

4 people.  This is a valid no lynch scenario.  Lynching someone has a 3/4 chance of hitting town - and mislynching ends the game with a successful night kill. Lynching correctly also requires 3 people to agree - which is much harder than it would be if you were only trying to get 2 townspeople to agree.

5 people.  With 2 mafia - you must lynch (see 3 people for reason).  With 1 mafia - no lynching will take you to 4 people, another no lynch, and then to 3 people.  Lynching then gives you a chance of hitting mafia before you're back to the 2-1 scenario.

---

Scaling up to the 9 person argument.  If we don't lynch now, we're in the same position tomorrow, but with 1 fewer townie (not even counting the fact that we could lose town PR).  The problem is that to successfully lynch scum today, we need 5 out of 7 townies to agree to do so.  If we wait until tomorrow, we need 5 out of 6 townies.  (this is harder!)  Also - we now have gained 0 information regarding the wagons and the voting.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 20, 2012, 11:52:20 am
I can see how hitting a townie and going from 7 town to 5 town with information is better than 6 town with no new information except that the 1 dead guy was town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 20, 2012, 11:56:50 am
Note - I don't know where i found this - and it wasn't easy - but I think that someone who kept stats over @ mafiascum for a bunch of newb games found that on average, mafia was lynched slightly less than the 22% that you'd expect from random lynching.  So - yes - while the lynching will be steered by mafia, and we are very likely to hit town today - it isn't impossible.  It just hasn't been done on these forums yet.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 20, 2012, 04:18:46 pm
Crickets?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 20, 2012, 04:43:48 pm
Crickets.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 20, 2012, 05:01:46 pm
Frisk says we need to lynch but makes no effort to sniff a lynch.

Everyone else sits on their thumbs too.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 20, 2012, 05:10:01 pm
I'm voting!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 20, 2012, 05:24:26 pm
Touché
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 20, 2012, 05:30:13 pm
I'm voting!

So, your vote basically reads, "everyone onto Sharky has pretty good reasons to be there but it sucks to get lynched D1, especially in your first game so I'm gonna cast a vote onto someone on the Sharky wagon with no further reasoning at all".

FoS C_F (yeah, I know some of you you hate that)

This certainly appears to be a Sharky scum buddy maneuver. That said, it's weak as hell without anything being thrown at manda.

Explain your vote on manda and try to be better about doing that than your reasons for not voting Sharky which are basically contradictory as hell.

Or maybe I took the whole thing out of context?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 20, 2012, 06:36:45 pm
I'll chime in to say that yes, I've been keeping up on this and that I have my opinions.  But given my situation, I've decided to just keep my mouth shut and let you guys start talking first.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 20, 2012, 06:48:58 pm
Alright, I said my piece up to date as of yesterday, and as nothing is being said really, I'll move things along:

Vote: Captain_Frisk

He's second on my list behind Timchen, and he's been... A little TOO cool. I don't know. I'm breaking tradition of voting something that looks super scummy, but turns out to be town, and instead I'm going on instinct. He's been rather too calm and collected, and just seems to fit the bill of where Mafia have sat comfortably D1 in the past.
f.DS has a big 0 on lynching Mafia D1, so it's time, I think, to try a different tact.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 20, 2012, 07:01:25 pm
Galz, is your big suspicion looming on my head primarily comes from my claim that I read you as obv. town?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 21, 2012, 05:56:58 am
I love that you are joining your #1 suspect in voting for your #2.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 21, 2012, 09:42:01 am
I love that you are joining your #1 suspect in voting for your #2.

This is a terrible explanation for your vote on manda as requested.

Vote: Captain_Frisk
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 21, 2012, 09:43:04 am
BTW, that's L-1 if I'm counting correctly.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 21, 2012, 09:57:30 am
Shark baits behavior is noob ish.

I feel that manda is savvy enough to know this and was trying to get him lynched anyway.

I am not scum.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 21, 2012, 10:33:27 am
BTW, that's L-1 if I'm counting correctly.

I am pretty sure no one has more than three votes on them?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 21, 2012, 10:39:56 am
BTW, that's L-1 if I'm counting correctly.

I am pretty sure no one has more than three votes on them?
Yeah Frisk is at L-2.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 21, 2012, 10:41:29 am
I never calimed to be any good at counting.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 21, 2012, 10:44:36 am
I never calimed to be any good at counting.

Trying to induce confusion ==> obviously mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 21, 2012, 10:44:48 am
I jest, I jest.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 21, 2012, 10:47:33 am
All kidding aside, L-2 is already a serious lynch threat. While I'm not getting any special town vibe on Frisk, I'd like those voting stating their case against him clearly. This feels pretty hasty to me.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 21, 2012, 10:53:05 am
Vote Count 1-10

Captain_Frisk (3): timchen, Galzria, pingpongsam
shark_bait (2): manda2014, Young Nick
manda2014 (2): Eevee, Captain_Frisk
pingpongsam (1): Robz888

Not Voting {1}: shark_bait

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 21, 2012, 10:53:45 am
I think i can summarize them for you:

timchen: OMGUS
Galzria: I'm too cool for school - gut feel vote even though he likes timchen more
PingPongSam: because I didn't answer his question - but instead pointed out Galzria's inconsistent voting for me - which causes him to actually agree with his #1 suspect

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 21, 2012, 10:59:21 am
All kidding aside, L-2 is already a serious lynch threat. While I'm not getting any special town vibe on Frisk, I'd like those voting stating their case against him clearly. This feels pretty hasty to me.

I am suspecting a Mafia team of Shark_Bait and Captain_Frisk. Frisk insists that Sharky's early play is entirely explained by noobishness. Frisk goes after someone on the Sharky wagon with the only excuse being basically that while everything about Sharky's play reeks of scum he deserves to live another day. I'm just trying to figure out which one is the cop and based on this dynamic I would actually guess Sharky because this seems to be an effective way to get Sharky to "live one more day".

His vote on manda is that she should know better which is a double edged sword in this case. Edge 1 is this is her first game too so where is the leniency for noob play, now? Edge 2 is if she knows better then she probably has a good read on Sharky, no?


Oh, and PPE: I can speak for myself, I don't need the scum to summarize my play for me.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 21, 2012, 11:07:34 am

Oh, and PPE: I can speak for myself, I don't need the scum to summarize my play for me.
You seem awfully sure, which I dont particularly like.
I mean, I do see you sort of have a case against Frisk, but being that sure / insistent on it doesnt seem to be justified.
You do realize that if we do lynch Frisk and he flips town, you are going to look very very bad now?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 21, 2012, 11:17:14 am

Oh, and PPE: I can speak for myself, I don't need the scum to summarize my play for me.
You seem awfully sure, which I dont particularly like.
I mean, I do see you sort of have a case against Frisk, but being that sure / insistent on it doesnt seem to be justified.
You do realize that if we do lynch Frisk and he flips town, you are going to look very very bad now?

I do realize the precarious position this puts me in. My PPE statement was a bit cocky, I admit. It was more reactionary than anything. Here I was building a case on Frisk and in the meantime he was making a post to undermine me pre emptively which just served to reinforce in my mind that I was on the right track.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 21, 2012, 11:36:32 am
Note: when I flip town I do not suspect pps
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 21, 2012, 11:46:42 am
Honestly my case on Frisk is simply gut, and a feeling that we've reached M-VII now without once lynching Mafia D1, so "your doing it wrong" seems applicable. Thus I'm attempting to flip "conventional wisdom" and instead try a new tactic in scum hunting. Instead of looking where I think they might be, I'm looking for where they've been in games past.

If there was an actual case I believed strongly in elsewhere I would vote there instead. If CF hit L-1 anytime soon, I would unvote. But for now, and for an eventual lynch, I'm content shooting for Frisk.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 21, 2012, 11:50:19 am
My reason on Frisk is not OMGUS. I'll explain my reason after he is at L-1 and makes a claim.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 21, 2012, 11:51:13 am
But please everyone, do not hammer him at L-1. Let us make it concrete that any quick hammer=lynch target next day.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 21, 2012, 11:51:53 am
So how is hat different than my case on manda?

On phone posting from batman theatre.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 21, 2012, 12:31:46 pm
Vote: Robz

I'm very interested in his opinions and he has been relatively quiet thus far.  It's almost as if his goal is to make it past N1 without us knowing too much about his style in this game.  I'd be very interested in hearing him talk more before we get all hasty and make a lynch. 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 21, 2012, 02:47:35 pm
Sharky still seems suspicious to me. He DOES seem like a noob and that's exactly why I'm suspicious. He's smart. He could easily read some of the other games and get a feel for it. Even skimming a couple of games would make it less noobish, and it would be easy enough for him to keep up noob play as an excuse. I don't know that I buy a Frisk/Sharky team though. If they're a team, they're being awfully obvious about it.

As a side note:
My reason on Frisk is not OMGUS. I'll explain my reason after he is at L-1 and makes a claim.

I'm really curious as to what timchen is getting at here. He said something similar in post #104.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 21, 2012, 03:29:08 pm
Well - at least his original vote is - he does seem to have a new idea on me.  I'm curious. 

Batman review: Not as good as the last one - but worth paying for.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 21, 2012, 05:10:01 pm
Well - at least his original vote is - he does seem to have a new idea on me.  I'm curious. 

Batman review: Not as good as the last one - but worth paying for.
Just came back from it as well, 100% agree. Disappointment but worth watching obviously.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 21, 2012, 05:52:13 pm
You guys are awesome.  I'm just leaving to go see it.  :)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 21, 2012, 06:11:24 pm
Note: when I flip town I do not suspect pps
This is actually a very interesting little statement.

I think its safe to assume PPS and C_F cant be on the same team (now that would be weird). So, if Frisk is indeed guilty, he has to know PPS is innocent. Why would he say this? There is some wifom there obviously, but the statement makes much more sense for a townie to make. (So Frisk, if you are mafia, very well played..)

Also @timchen, I dont think Frisk is going to claim anything. I'm starting to become quite confident he is just a vanilla townie.. surprising he isnt putting up more a fight though. Why is that Frisk?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 21, 2012, 07:13:36 pm
Went to see Batman IMAX, sold out. Went ahead and got tickets for next Saturday's showing.

For the disappointed it should be noted that the trilogy has closely adhered to the original comic book series and as such the ending is definitely not going to be what people want it to be.

Also, on-topic, Frisk's statement almost convinced me to unvote. I am curious for more material as well.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 21, 2012, 07:29:17 pm
Vote: Robz

I'm very interested in his opinions and he has been relatively quiet thus far.  It's almost as if his goal is to make it past N1 without us knowing too much about his style in this game.  I'd be very interested in hearing him talk more before we get all hasty and make a lynch.

This is indeed my goal.

Batman review: Not as good as the last one - but worth paying for.

Agreed. It wasn't nearly as tidy and compelling as the second movie, but it was still enjoyable and I liked the twists, fan service, and cameos.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 21, 2012, 07:30:31 pm
Lurking is your goal? Policy lynch time?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 22, 2012, 09:04:14 am
Note: when I flip town I do not suspect pps
This is actually a very interesting little statement.

I think its safe to assume PPS and C_F cant be on the same team (now that would be weird). So, if Frisk is indeed guilty, he has to know PPS is innocent. Why would he say this? There is some wifom there obviously, but the statement makes much more sense for a townie to make. (So Frisk, if you are mafia, very well played..)

Also @timchen, I dont think Frisk is going to claim anything. I'm starting to become quite confident he is just a vanilla townie.. surprising he isnt putting up more a fight though. Why is that Frisk?

Well - #1 i'm not at l-1  #2 - there's nothing to argue against.  Timchen has no case.  Galzria has no case, and I don't think that PPS can be reasoned with.

Go read SwitchedFromStarcraft's posts from MIV if you want my read on PPS.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 22, 2012, 10:38:47 am
@frisk: I do have a case. While it is not so strong (given its d1 it is not surprising) I don't see a reason not to pursue it...yet.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 22, 2012, 10:41:27 am
@frisk: I do have a case. While it is not so strong (given its d1 it is not surprising) I don't see a reason not to pursue it...yet.

You may, but I can't exactly refute it if you won't tellme what it is, which is why I can't really defend myself other than to say you are all working on bad reads.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 23, 2012, 09:17:12 am
So - Galzria - what do you think about RobZ's intentional lurking?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 23, 2012, 09:44:14 am
Vote Count 1-11

Captain_Frisk (3): timchen, Galzria, pingpongsam
shark_bait (2): manda2014, Young Nick
manda2014 (2): Eevee, Captain_Frisk
pingpongsam (1): Robz888
Robz888 (1): shark_bait

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 23, 2012, 12:33:11 pm
Seriously guys - I can't fire up every single game of mafia on these forums.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 23, 2012, 12:42:47 pm
Nothing?

Time to roleclaim:

I am the Messiah
I was gonna wait till next year
Build up the suspense a little
Make it a really big surprise
But I could not resist
It's like when you got a really big secret
You're just bursting to tell someone
It was kinda like that with this
And now that I've told you
I feel this great weight lifted
Dr. Nusbaum was right
He's my therapist
He said get it out in the open
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 23, 2012, 12:55:40 pm
Ok. Let me elaborate my idea on frisk a bit.

Again this mostly came from his interaction with sharky. I would say it is okay to depict shark as a smart but inexperienced player. It might make sense to him without too much thinking that an early vote on frisk can distance him from his partner. His explanation for the vote and frisk's response look like coaching to me. His later unvote and unwillingness to revote are side evidences.

On frisk's side, his theory of forcing people to claim, while plausible, does sound more like from mafia. They have two votes, and therefore are slightly more unlikely to be at that position (especially in the early days). And it only benefits the mafia for a townie to claim VT or PR. In the PR case it is obviously so; in the VT case it is because the mafia can immediately believe him while the town may not.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 23, 2012, 12:56:37 pm
Oh, and if my far-fetched theory of frisk-sharky team is correct, I would rather lynch frisk first both because he is more experienced and because sharky is new.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 23, 2012, 01:01:10 pm
Oh, and if my far-fetched theory of frisk-sharky team is correct, I would rather lynch frisk first both because he is more experienced and because sharky is new.

I save you some time and tell you with 100% certainty that it is at least half wrong.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 23, 2012, 01:09:52 pm
Oh, and if my far-fetched theory of frisk-sharky team is correct, I would rather lynch frisk first both because he is more experienced and because sharky is new.

I save you some time and tell you with 100% certainty that it is at least half wrong.

Do you mind sharing your idea about frisk with us then?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 23, 2012, 01:40:36 pm
Seriously, where is everyone?  Galz and robz are posting everywhere else.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 23, 2012, 02:07:10 pm
So - Galzria - what do you think about RobZ's intentional lurking?

I mentioned before that it, along with his general playstyle, could very well be to try and throw a former scummate (myself). He could also be trying something new. I'm not convinced which. If there was a reason to believe it was the former I would absolutely vote for him.

I notice too that Robz wants to be in all the games, but he does become increasingly "lurky" the more he adds. Not really blaming him, just commenting. I still think he's an asset to our games, lurker or not.

I will admit to having a bit of a hard time with Robz though, in the same way I do with Joth. We've played SO many games together, there is both a natural trust, and a natural distrust of each other.  Inevitably, right or wrong, we'll end up shooting for each other. To try to reduce the "wrong" and increase the "right", I try to get more fully developed reads on him before speculating or voting with more conviction on him.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 23, 2012, 02:33:21 pm
Seriously, where is everyone?  Galz and robz are posting everywhere else.
I'm on all the time.. Just nothing to say. Fwiw, I feel seeing what Frisk eventually flips in a game we cant really discuss will help me some with getting a read on him here so thats something.
I'm sad how little I have on ANYONE in this game. This situation is extremely beneficial to mafia because its going to be really easy to fabricate a fake case and have me believe it now given how I have very little opinions of anything on my own.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 23, 2012, 02:42:48 pm
Do you mind sharing your idea about frisk with us then?

I will try to be as clear as possible in this post.  I don't want anything to be taken the wrong way.  CF has been very vocal in this game.  Offering advice, jokes and general banter.  When directly asked by Galz if he would vote for me, he posts the following:

I am thinking about it.  Will post more from pc tonight.  I have played dominion with sb before.  He isn't a doofus.

Soon after, he says

I am alot less likely to buy a "noob" defense from someone who has demonstrated extreme skill at any primarily mental activity.  It's actually the same reason that my vote is still on timchen.

Later on, he says,

Seriously though - i felt that her vote on SB was pressured when she was called out for not voting - and I think she's read enough mafia to really have a sense that shark_bait's play is more likely noob than scum.

From this, I would presume (and correct me if I'm wrong) that CF sees my play as inexperienced and sloppy and is for now, viewing me as not mafia.  A mafia member would know that I am not mafia.  From CF's posts, I see a slow decision to trust my play as dumb.  This could be an elaborate ploy by a mafia member (so I can't trust him completely which is also something I can say about all the rest of you), but I'm inclined to believe he is legit.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 23, 2012, 03:02:10 pm
So - dumb is a little strong to describe SB's play.

I just think that announcing to the town "hey - I want to convince everyone that I'm town" is just a little too aggressive to pull off as a first time mafia player.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 23, 2012, 03:54:58 pm
Oy!

RobZ!

I am in!

Over here!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 23, 2012, 04:54:32 pm
I bet he's getting hungry for dinner.... because of all that grilling going on in MVI.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 23, 2012, 05:06:46 pm
Listen - if he has enough time to sign up for a diplomacy game - he can come over here and explain why he's lurking.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 23, 2012, 05:09:20 pm
eevee, timchen, manda, YN... anyone???  Anyone else think robz behavior in this game is strange?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 23, 2012, 05:16:27 pm
I do. But sadly I don't find it a scummy move so I am less inclined to push his wagon for now.

My experience up to now: lurkers are lurkers because they are bored, not because they are scum. If anything, lurking when you are scum is probably the worst way to play the game. You have more things you can do. I certainly won't lurk in a game I am mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 23, 2012, 05:18:54 pm
I don't consider it scummy exactly, but its certainly out of character.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 23, 2012, 06:06:19 pm
eevee, timchen, manda, YN... anyone???  Anyone else think robz behavior in this game is strange?
He has a lot of stuff going on, I can certainly relate to not finding anything useful to say. I dont know why this is moving so slow but mafia must be loving it.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 23, 2012, 08:54:46 pm
From this, I would presume (and correct me if I'm wrong) that CF sees my play as inexperienced and sloppy and is for now, viewing me as not mafia.  A mafia member would know that I am not mafia.  From CF's posts, I see a slow decision to trust my play as dumb.  This could be an elaborate ploy by a mafia member (so I can't trust him completely which is also something I can say about all the rest of you), but I'm inclined to believe he is legit.

If you're town, of course a mafia member would know you're not mafia, but that in no way means that they would come right out and say "I know this person is town." because that would bring suspicion on them. Acting certain of something enarly always brings suspicion, even if that's just that person's playstyle, and they always say "I know" when they mean "I'm 99% certain." If Frisk is mafia, and you're town and he knows that, he might still play like he's slow to make a decision on you.

eevee, timchen, manda, YN... anyone???  Anyone else think robz behavior in this game is strange?

It's certainly very.... off. And it makes me wary, but I'm inclined to think that maybe he's taking the opportunity of being in a newbie game to test out a different playstyle. We'll see.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 23, 2012, 09:05:18 pm
So manda - since you're here - how confident do you feel on your shark_bait vote?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 23, 2012, 09:07:53 pm
So manda - since you're here - how confident do you feel on your shark_bait vote?
trying to drive the game forward is certainly a town thing to do. Props to Mr Frisk + this clears you a bit in my head.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 23, 2012, 09:11:27 pm
You know I'm not a furry, right?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 23, 2012, 09:14:11 pm
So manda - since you're here - how confident do you feel on your shark_bait vote?

I'm not totally totally certain. His last post seems a little too noobish, but he's not close to a lynch so I'm not ready to change it yet.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 23, 2012, 09:18:23 pm
So manda - since you're here - how confident do you feel on your shark_bait vote?

I'm not totally totally certain. His last post seems a little too noobish, but he's not close to a lynch so I'm not ready to change it yet.

Do you have any suggestions on how to proceed?  I think my wagon is pretty sweet - perhaps you should join me in voting for scum?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 23, 2012, 09:40:31 pm
The total lack of posting from Galzria and RobZ is making me extra special nervous.

Galzria - would you like to talk about beer if you won't talk about the game?  There's another brewfest in CT coming up.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 23, 2012, 09:43:11 pm
I'd defend my vote from Robz if he ever bothered to substantiate it.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 23, 2012, 09:47:10 pm
So manda - since you're here - how confident do you feel on your shark_bait vote?

I'm not totally totally certain. His last post seems a little too noobish, but he's not close to a lynch so I'm not ready to change it yet.

Do you have any suggestions on how to proceed?  I think my wagon is pretty sweet - perhaps you should join me in voting for scum?

Honestly there's been so little posting lately that I'm not sure on how to proceed. It looks like it's picking up some, though, so maybe I'll have a better read on everything soon... and no, I'm not particularly interested in joining the wagon you're on...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 23, 2012, 09:50:19 pm
What do you think about PPS manda?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 23, 2012, 09:53:09 pm
The total lack of posting from Galzria and RobZ is making me extra special nervous.

Galzria - would you like to talk about beer if you won't talk about the game?  There's another brewfest in CT coming up.

You DO realize the only person with more posts than me is you... Right? Calling me out on lurking is rather ridiculous. You really shouldn't paint a picture with bad paint. I'm quite happy where my vote is. :P
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 23, 2012, 09:55:55 pm
The total lack of posting from Galzria and RobZ is making me extra special nervous.

Galzria - would you like to talk about beer if you won't talk about the game?  There's another brewfest in CT coming up.

You DO realize the only person with more posts than me is you... Right? Calling me out on lurking is rather ridiculous. You really shouldn't paint a picture with bad paint. I'm quite happy where my vote is. :P

I do know that I've been talking with you ALL DAY long, yet there has been no movement in this thread.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 23, 2012, 10:01:47 pm
The total lack of posting from Galzria and RobZ is making me extra special nervous.

Galzria - would you like to talk about beer if you won't talk about the game?  There's another brewfest in CT coming up.

You DO realize the only person with more posts than me is you... Right? Calling me out on lurking is rather ridiculous. You really shouldn't paint a picture with bad paint. I'm quite happy where my vote is. :P

I do know that I've been talking with you ALL DAY long, yet there has been no movement in this thread.

I gave you a full answer to your Robz question. Did you miss that post of mine too?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 23, 2012, 10:06:24 pm
I saw it - but its not like he's not online - he's explicitly doing other things - like writing articles about Duchess! 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 23, 2012, 10:09:34 pm
Meh I am glued to the computer all weekend and there are only five posts. I come back after one day of work and have multiple pages to read. I have read nothing and hope to catch up later, but can't comment now.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 23, 2012, 10:10:05 pm
I saw it - but its not like he's not online - he's explicitly doing other things - like writing articles about Duchess!

What a typical anti-Duchess attitude. As if Duchess isn't worth my time. It's a very special $2 card!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 23, 2012, 10:11:59 pm
I saw it - but its not like he's not online - he's explicitly doing other things - like writing articles about Duchess!

I agree - I don't like his play here! But outside Glooble in M-IV, when has hardcore lurking been Scum?

Could he be trying something new? Sure. Could he be scum? Sure. Give me something more than "lurking" to vote him. After my feel about you, he is a strong and growing second choice.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 23, 2012, 10:17:38 pm
I saw it - but its not like he's not online - he's explicitly doing other things - like writing articles about Duchess!

What a typical anti-Duchess attitude. As if Duchess isn't worth my time. It's a very special $2 card!

Yes - duchess is not worth your time.  If you implemented a rule that said "just say no to duchess" I suspect you will lose 1 game more game than if you played duchess perfectly in your next 200 games as a result.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 23, 2012, 10:21:59 pm
I saw it - but its not like he's not online - he's explicitly doing other things - like writing articles about Duchess!

What a typical anti-Duchess attitude. As if Duchess isn't worth my time. It's a very special $2 card!

Will we get anything more game relevant than this?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 23, 2012, 10:24:46 pm
even I know the answer to that one.

We'll get nothing and like it.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 23, 2012, 10:29:13 pm
What else do you want from me? I voted for PPS. He's behaving more seriously in this game than he did in other, uh, Forum experiences I've had with him.

At this point, Shark_bait is newbie town, I think. Manda has the enthusiasm of a potential mafia, or maybe just somebody really excited about the game. Too early too tell. Eevee and Galzria are same as always. Frisk is an acceptable lynch.

Who am I missing? Oh, no particular reads on Young Nick or Timchen.

But we won't know anything until we just pick somebody to kill. The most important thing--more important than finding a mafia, actually, because we won't find a mafia, if all other games are any lesson--is to not pick a townie with a power role to be lynched.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 23, 2012, 10:51:19 pm
Is your pps lynch an un moving robz vote, or the new flexible robz?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 24, 2012, 12:53:56 am
My experience up to now: lurkers are lurkers because they are bored, not because they are scum. If anything, lurking when you are scum is probably the worst way to play the game. You have more things you can do. I certainly won't lurk in a game I am mafia.

This confuses me. Say you are Mafia: just because you have more you can do doesn't mean that you should take advantage of it all. You know, the good ol' "sometimes the best action is inaction." Why would you never lurk as Mafia? This could provide insight regarding our current lurkers.

And regarding your first part...this game has been boring as far as Mafia games go. Boredom is something that all, town and Mafia, can experience. I'm not particularly inclined to judge someone based on their post-count when the game is moving as slowly as it is.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 24, 2012, 01:17:20 am
Man, I just went back and read M-II (or parts of it)... What ever happened to those days? People who would write whole essays to make their point...

Now it feels more like mafiascum Mafia. We're so uptight about picking over the littlest of word choices. We need to go back to times like this:

 
(http://i.qkme.me/3pdpwm.jpg)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 24, 2012, 01:18:13 am
(Credit: Voltgloss)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 24, 2012, 01:24:34 am
Hey Fuzzy, why don't you come bus your partner with me?

Or we could flip that: CF, wanna join me in an Eevee lynch? C'mon, we can declaw the Pokemon!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 24, 2012, 01:34:08 am
So the night of MVI came before I was back...

@YN: Don't take my word that serious there. I am not saying we can know who is mafia by counting number of posts. I just mean that it is hard to imagine a mafia will play for the win by intentional lurking. Not the most interesting way to play this game is it? Although I can see it work on the forums.

@manda: Not joining our frisk wagon? It's pretty clear to me that he is buddying up with you.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 24, 2012, 01:34:59 am
@Robz: with one less game to post on, I expect to hear more from you!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 24, 2012, 01:43:45 am
So the night of MVI came before I was back...

@YN: Don't take my word that serious there. I am not saying we can know who is mafia by counting number of posts. I just mean that it is hard to imagine a mafia will play for the win by intentional lurking. Not the most interesting way to play this game is it? Although I can see it work on the forums.

@manda: Not joining our frisk wagon? It's pretty clear to me that he is buddying up with you.

Err, Timchen, did you mean that last point to Manda with sarcasm? Because if you look at the last vote tally...:

 
Vote Count 1-11

Captain_Frisk (3): timchen, Galzria, pingpongsam
shark_bait (2): manda2014, Young Nick
manda2014 (2): Eevee, Captain_Frisk
pingpongsam (1): Robz888
Robz888 (1): shark_bait

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 24, 2012, 01:47:35 am
The thing is that now we've gotten better at this, and we all know Day is basically not going to result in a scum lynch. That doesn't mean the day is meaningless, because tomorrow we will be looking back at this stuff for clues. But it does mean that knowing what we know now, in this vanilla-ish setup, it's a little hard to get the ball rolling. Consider that in the last game like this, MII, obvscum Robz whipped the town into the frenzied lynch of crazy Morgrim on Day 1, with support from otherscum Galz. We're just all much better--and more calculating--now. And we've learned that a lot of the things we used to hold against people--craziness and word choice, for instance--aren't actually scumtells.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 24, 2012, 01:53:39 am
Oops, I didn't look carefully at the votes. That vote from frisk must have occurred some time ago. But frisk accused me buddying up him when my vote was on his head too! Anyway, it's a general feeling from the posts by frisk directed to (a)manda.

And the night fell in RMMI when I was absent as well. Oh well...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 24, 2012, 01:58:23 am
The thing is that now we've gotten better at this, and we all know Day is basically not going to result in a scum lynch. That doesn't mean the day is meaningless, because tomorrow we will be looking back at this stuff for clues. But it does mean that knowing what we know now, in this vanilla-ish setup, it's a little hard to get the ball rolling. Consider that in the last game like this, MII, obvscum Robz whipped the town into the frenzied lynch of crazy Morgrim on Day 1, with support from otherscum Galz. We're just all much better--and more calculating--now. And we've learned that a lot of the things we used to hold against people--craziness and word choice, for instance--aren't actually scumtells.
That's why I'm voting the only sane person in the thread right now. To try something different. I mean, we can't miss Scum every time. We just need to find scum where they haven't yet been found on f.DS - Blending in, non-suspicious, voice of reason / town sort of people.

Sure, "lynch the most town looking people" is probably a terrible strategy... But I can point to at least 3 examples out of the 5 concluded games where this would've held true. The other two games it didn't matter (M-I and M-III) as town won on PR's after the D1 lynch. So yeah... I'm willing to try something a little unconventional, and see where it leads.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 24, 2012, 02:01:01 am
Fixed the bolded sentence ending:

The thing is that now we've gotten better at this, and we all know Day is basically not going to result in a scum lynch. That doesn't mean the day is meaningless, because tomorrow we will be looking back at this stuff for clues. But it does mean that knowing what we know now, in this vanilla-ish setup, it's a little hard to get the ball rolling. Consider that in the last game like this, MII, obvscum Robz whipped the town into the frenzied lynch of crazy Morgrim on Day 1, with support from otherscum Galz. We're just all much better--and more calculating--now. And we've learned that a lot of the things we used to hold against people--craziness and word choice, for instance--aren't actually scumtells.
That's why I'm voting the only sane person in the thread right now. To try something different. I mean, we can't miss Scum every time. We just need to find scum where they haven't yet been found on f.DS - Blending in, non-suspicious, voice of reason / town sort of people.

Sure, "lynch the most town looking people" is probably a terrible strategy... But I can point to at least 3 examples out of the 5 concluded games where this would've yeilded Mafia kills . The other two games it didn't matter (M-I and M-III) as town won on PR's after the D1 lynch. So yeah... I'm willing to try something a little unconventional, and see where it leads.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 24, 2012, 05:42:52 am
The thing is that now we've gotten better at this, and we all know Day is basically not going to result in a scum lynch. That doesn't mean the day is meaningless, because tomorrow we will be looking back at this stuff for clues. But it does mean that knowing what we know now, in this vanilla-ish setup, it's a little hard to get the ball rolling. Consider that in the last game like this, MII, obvscum Robz whipped the town into the frenzied lynch of crazy Morgrim on Day 1, with support from otherscum Galz. We're just all much better--and more calculating--now. And we've learned that a lot of the things we used to hold against people--craziness and word choice, for instance--aren't actually scumtells.
That's why I'm voting the only sane person in the thread right now. To try something different. I mean, we can't miss Scum every time. We just need to find scum where they haven't yet been found on f.DS - Blending in, non-suspicious, voice of reason / town sort of people.

Sure, "lynch the most town looking people" is probably a terrible strategy... But I can point to at least 3 examples out of the 5 concluded games where this would've held true. The other two games it didn't matter (M-I and M-III) as town won on PR's after the D1 lynch. So yeah... I'm willing to try something a little unconventional, and see where it leads.
The reason we cant get scum lynched on day1 is the fact they always save themselves by claiming when in danger. That gives us info though so its not that bad.

..but it isnt like random. Scum wagons just dont take of the same way because scum doesnt vote for themselves and if they do, they can always fakeclaim and live another day.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 24, 2012, 06:19:44 am
Robz' vote on me amounts to, "he's taking this game more seriously".

FFS, M6 was my 1st game and if you note I'm taking it considerably more seriously as I figure out how to get involved. Speaking of involved, M6 is complex, especially for a 1st timer. This game is cake in comparison.

So, I learned how to scumhunt and I apply my newfound knowledge to this game and I get voted for the gallows D1.
This is Town Rob playing for his team?

FoS: Robz888
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 08:22:15 am
So the night of MVI came before I was back...

@YN: Don't take my word that serious there. I am not saying we can know who is mafia by counting number of posts. I just mean that it is hard to imagine a mafia will play for the win by intentional lurking. Not the most interesting way to play this game is it? Although I can see it work on the forums.

@manda: Not joining our frisk wagon? It's pretty clear to me that he is buddying up with you.

I'm not buddying - I'm asking her targeted questions to try to get some talking out of her.  The fact that she did her best not to answer is interesting.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 08:26:21 am
What do you guys think about putting together the M4 style Pops / Tables chart? 

List all of the people - in order of suspicion - in buckets of "would be willing to lynch" - "might be willing to lynch" - "will not lynch"? 

I'll start us off in a second here.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 09:20:13 am
Would be willing to lynch:
Manda

Might be willing to lynch
timchen - still suspicious - but taking him down a peg after his poor case against me
Young Nick - policy lynch on lurker - would like to see more from him
eeVee - didn't like him buddying me for trying to hunt scum
RobZ - don't like his play change - but not convinced that he's scum
PingPongSam - could be a liability later in the game

Not willing to lynch (today)
Galzria - this scares me
shark_bait - believe noob
Captain_Frisk
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 24, 2012, 09:34:24 am
Would be willing to lynch:

Captain_Frisk - believed to be scumbuddies with Shark_Bait, I'm onto him and he calls me a liability
Shark_Bait - What about this guy isn't scummy?

Might be willing to lynch

Robz - If ever a policy lynch was needed, also a bit of OMGUS for baseless vote against me, nothing about his play screams town
manda -  not convinced of anything on her, thinking maybe since she is actually playing the damned game she gets enough scrutiny to possibly appear scummy, tenuously agreeing with Frisk's read on her (suspending my suspicions on Frisk to do so)

Not willing to lynch (today)

PPS - obvtown (to me)
Galzria - Strongest town read
eeVee - 2nd strongest Town read
Young Nick - Seems to be scumhunting, no scum read, could swing either way but no tells to date
timchen - no tells to date, no read at all
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 24, 2012, 09:35:59 am
PingPongSam - could be a liability later in the game

Could you explain this one a bit more for me?

And, yeah, I got selected to be on a jury. So instead of working until 3, I am there until 5, so my free time this week has dropped a considerable amount. Expect more from me after the trial ends, most likely Thursday or Friday.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 24, 2012, 09:51:47 am
eeVee - didn't like him buddying me for trying to hunt scum
I was sincerely thanking you of taking trying to get stuff done. Thought you'd appreciate the recognition for your efforts. Why do you think PPS might become a liability?

I tried to make a chart but I feel its almost stupid because my reads are so inadequate at the moment. Putting almost everyone under "Might be willing to lynch".
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 24, 2012, 09:52:58 am
eeVee - didn't like him buddying me for trying to hunt scum
I was sincerely thanking you of taking trying to get stuff done. Thought you'd appreciate the recognition for your efforts. Why do you think PPS might become a liability?

I tried to make a chart but I feel its almost stupid because my reads are so inadequate at the moment. Putting almost everyone under "Might be willing to lynch".
*thanking you for trying to get stuff done.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 10:10:06 am
PingPongSam - could be a liability later in the game

Could you explain this one a bit more for me?

As one example: I provide you with:

It is certainly interesting to know what PRs exist up front. I think it makes analyses much more clear and gives some direction to decision making even if actual role holders remain unknown. It certainly appears to my relatively unexperienced eyes that Town has the starting advantage so we need to use this advantage to make an early ID on one of the scum. The question is how best to do this.

The obvious perfect D1 play is to have the Doctor protecting our Cop while the Jailkeeper protects a VT. Coordinating this play early while maintaining secret identities is the trick but as each day passes we will either randomly lose our PRs or the scum cops will ID them and take them out systematically. In this way JK begins as the most expendable PR. However, if we manage to knock down one of the scum the JK suddenly has the ability to ID the remaining scum member just by randomly selecting him to stop night action. Each day our Cop IDs one of us as Town the JK narrows his list of random picks.

So, in summary, Town has an advantage and played well can easily maintain it even if scum manage to hit a PR each night but coordination of the needed information will be paramount. With this information in play I'm not entirely sure a D1 lynch is such a great idea but I am entirely open to an opposing view. A D1 Town lynch seems to be sacrificing the advantage entirely too early while we seem to keep a significant night action advantage with 3 night actions to the scum team's 1. It would be a real travesty to accidentaly mislynch one of our PRs.

So, based on this early analysis I am
Vote: No Lynch
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 24, 2012, 10:20:26 am
PingPongSam - could be a liability later in the game

Could you explain this one a bit more for me?

As one example: I provide you with:

...I am entirely open to an opposing view... It would be a real travesty to accidentaly mislynch one of our PRs...

Damn, you're right, I come off like a real loose cannon maybe I should vote for myself. /sarcasm
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Eevee on July 24, 2012, 10:24:21 am
PingPongSam - could be a liability later in the game

Could you explain this one a bit more for me?

As one example: I provide you with:

It is certainly interesting to know what PRs exist up front. I think it makes analyses much more clear and gives some direction to decision making even if actual role holders remain unknown. It certainly appears to my relatively unexperienced eyes that Town has the starting advantage so we need to use this advantage to make an early ID on one of the scum. The question is how best to do this.

The obvious perfect D1 play is to have the Doctor protecting our Cop while the Jailkeeper protects a VT. Coordinating this play early while maintaining secret identities is the trick but as each day passes we will either randomly lose our PRs or the scum cops will ID them and take them out systematically. In this way JK begins as the most expendable PR. However, if we manage to knock down one of the scum the JK suddenly has the ability to ID the remaining scum member just by randomly selecting him to stop night action. Each day our Cop IDs one of us as Town the JK narrows his list of random picks.

So, in summary, Town has an advantage and played well can easily maintain it even if scum manage to hit a PR each night but coordination of the needed information will be paramount. With this information in play I'm not entirely sure a D1 lynch is such a great idea but I am entirely open to an opposing view. A D1 Town lynch seems to be sacrificing the advantage entirely too early while we seem to keep a significant night action advantage with 3 night actions to the scum team's 1. It would be a real travesty to accidentaly mislynch one of our PRs.

So, based on this early analysis I am
Vote: No Lynch

Nah, I think he is just trying to learn the ropes, dont see him as a liability at all. In fact I appreciate his efforts to analyse stuff, seems more like an asset to the town to me. Frisk seems kind of eager to build cases against everyone (your vote to mandy could also be read as an attempt to build a wagon for her), but that could just be aggressive scumhunting.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 10:26:58 am
eeVee - didn't like him buddying me for trying to hunt scum
I was sincerely thanking you of taking trying to get stuff done. Thought you'd appreciate the recognition for your efforts. Why do you think PPS might become a liability?

I tried to make a chart but I feel its almost stupid because my reads are so inadequate at the moment. Putting almost everyone under "Might be willing to lynch".

Surely you have some town reads, or maybe some scum reads?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 24, 2012, 10:31:03 am
eeVee - didn't like him buddying me for trying to hunt scum
I was sincerely thanking you of taking trying to get stuff done. Thought you'd appreciate the recognition for your efforts. Why do you think PPS might become a liability?

I tried to make a chart but I feel its almost stupid because my reads are so inadequate at the moment. Putting almost everyone under "Might be willing to lynch".

Surely you have some town reads, or maybe some scum reads?

I'll try to re-read tonight to be of some use for change.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 24, 2012, 10:34:39 am
Would be willing to Lynch
Robz

Might be willing to Lynch
Manda
PPS
YN
TC
Galz
Eevee
CF

With the might be list in order of most likely (If I weren't voting for Robz, I'd probably be voting one of these) to least likely (I don't 100% trust them, but I will not support a wagon against them)

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 24, 2012, 10:35:33 am
Wow! I'm gone all evening and the thread explodes. No time to post a reply right now; I'm at work until about 3 (forum time). I'll reread everything and post this afternoon.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 10:46:11 am
manda - you have a question waiting from me a few pages back.  Apparently I was buddying you by trying to get you to answer questions.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 START!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 10:47:38 am
PingPongSam - could be a liability later in the game

Could you explain this one a bit more for me?

As one example: I provide you with:

...I am entirely open to an opposing view... It would be a real travesty to accidentaly mislynch one of our PRs...

Damn, you're right, I come off like a real loose cannon maybe I should vote for myself. /sarcasm

PPS - can you elaborate on your view of shark bait? 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 24, 2012, 10:59:15 am
My list is a bit light, but fwiw:

Willing to lynch

#1: Captain_Frisk
#2: Eevee
#3: Timchen
#4: Robz
#5: PPS
#6: Young_Nick
#7: Manda

Won't cast my vote for unless something drastic changes

#8: Shark_Bait

You can't make me vote for

#9: Myself

---

Manda is probably close to slipping down a group, as is YN.... But under the right circumstances I could see myself voting them, so I left them up there.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 11:00:47 am
So you have nobody in the "maybe" category?  You'd happily throw a vote down on all 7 of those folks?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 24, 2012, 11:03:37 am
Ahh, perhaps I'm a little unfair to Fuzzy there. Flip him down to #4, bumping Timchen and Robz both up one.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 24, 2012, 11:07:44 am
So you have nobody in the "maybe" category?  You'd happily throw a vote down on all 7 of those folks?

They are listed from most likely to least likely to receive my vote, and I noted #6 & #7 are close to sliding into "won't vote" category... But yes, any of them could be scum. I actually think PPS is right that S_B is rather scummy as well, but I won't vote someone who claimed on the day that they claimed, when 50% of the setups can check that claim.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 24, 2012, 11:10:46 am
So here's my list:

Willing to Lynch
Shark_Bait: I still can't shake that feeling that he's pretending to be n00bish, even though I more or less stand alone in this regard.

Might be Willing to Lynch
Robz: His general lack of commentary is off-putting.
Captain_Frisk: This one doesn't have much rationality behind it, but is a gut-feeling.
PingPongSam: He seems everywhere and not afraid to vote.
Eevee/Timchen: Lots of lurking so I can't really get much of a read here.
Manda: I agree with most of what she has to say.

Not Wiling to Lynch at the Moment
Galzria: I am getting a good vibe here.

Never in a Million Years Would I Dream of It
Young Nick: Hopefully this goes without say.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 24, 2012, 11:11:53 am
We really need to lynch someone tonight.  Assuming no interference from PR's, the following events will happen over the course of the next few days.

9 -> 7 -> 5 -> 3 (2 Mafia, 1 Town) = Game Over

We will lose 2 people a night/day, we can have 2 wrong lynches before it becomes imperative that we get it right.  Now look at what happens if we do a no lynch night.

9 -> 8 -> 6 -> 4 (2 Mafia, 2 Town) = Game Over

So if we choose a no lynch night EVER.  We LOSE with 2 wrong lynches.  This is in comparison to lynching every night which will put us on the brink of loss with 2 wrong lynches.  Keep in mind that this is assuming no PR interference and not correctly lynching the mafia.  But I think this is a good benchmark to keep in mind when thinking about how the game will move along in the future.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 24, 2012, 11:12:54 am
Hooray for Internet access and frequent recesses while on a jury!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 24, 2012, 11:16:16 am
I was talking to my friend who plays epicmafia and he was explaining to me that no lynch should be the way to go. I didn't really follow his logic, but he was very confident of it. Maybe he's just used to follow-the-cop, but is the NL something that we should consider more carefully, even if it does not provide us with quite the same amount of information? Is it worth it in that sense because we lose only 1 town compared to 2 (assuming no night-action interference)?

I guess it seems that f.DS is very much anti-NL, but maybe we suffer from groupthink.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 11:18:17 am
Ok - i have results for:

Galzria, YoungNick, Captain_Frisk, Shark_bait, pps

Waiting for:
RobZ
eeVee
Manda
timchen
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 24, 2012, 11:22:12 am
Would be willing to Lynch
Robz

Might be willing to Lynch
Manda
PPS
YN
TC
Galz
Eevee
CF

With the might be list in order of most likely (If I weren't voting for Robz, I'd probably be voting one of these) to least likely (I don't 100% trust them, but I will not support a wagon against them)

And look who is at the bottom of his list. This further reinforces the picture that CF is Sharky's scumbuddy.

Below is the Sharky process that communicates to me that he and Frisk are scumbuddies.

Sharky:
1. Early RVS on Frisk to create the needed distancing
2. Explanation for vote is it was intended to give us the impression he is town.
3. Frisk admonishes such a dumb play
4. Backs up and says his vote was just following the leader (timchen)
5. Claims VT (terrible town play under these circumstances)
6. Tries to implicate the people who have had the audacity to vote against him (me and YN)
7. Changes vote to RobZ
8. Further clarifies stance on Frisk and puts lots of distance in there
9. Continues to focus on Robz

Frisk:
1. RVS timchen
2. Admonishes PPS for misunderstanding game setup (this plays in later when PPS brings the heat)
3. FoS Robz (no way Sharky followed that lead, right?)
4. Baits us to vote him so he can roleclaim (yeah a loose interpretation, here but is how timchen read it)
5. Asks Sharky to explain the vote on him (cmon buddy makes some distance and I'll paint you as clueless noob)
6. Watches in horror as Sharky spills the beans
7. Starts painting Sharky as too smart to make such an error
8. Helps clarify that Sharky is claiming to be VT
9. Continues to belabor the point that Sharky is a noob and couldn't possibly be playing an advanced game despite already establishing his aptitude
10. Blazes a trail and encourages others to follow on manda (Sharky you divert to Robz and I'll divert to manda who happens to be voting for you)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 24, 2012, 11:22:29 am
Interesting... I need to see the other 4's lists, but there are a couple of notable patterns thusfar.

YN, you are not alone in your feelings for S_B. I too find him the scummiest person in. this thread. But with 50% of setups including a Cop, I'm willing to wait a day and see what happens. PPS also finds him quite scummy. So don't feel bad, your read here isn't wrong - I just think it's worth not pursuing for a day.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 24, 2012, 11:24:01 am
This person sees things I see.

Would be willing to Lynch
Robz

Might be willing to Lynch
Manda
PPS
YN
TC
Galz
Eevee
CF

With the might be list in order of most likely (If I weren't voting for Robz, I'd probably be voting one of these) to least likely (I don't 100% trust them, but I will not support a wagon against them)

And look who is at the bottom of his list. This further reinforces the picture that CF is Sharky's scumbuddy.

Below is the Sharky process that communicates to me that he and Frisk are scumbuddies.

Sharky:
1. Early RVS on Frisk to create the needed distancing
2. Explanation for vote is it was intended to give us the impression he is town.
3. Frisk admonishes such a dumb play
4. Backs up and says his vote was just following the leader (timchen)
5. Claims VT (terrible town play under these circumstances)
6. Tries to implicate the people who have had the audacity to vote against him (me and YN)
7. Changes vote to RobZ
8. Further clarifies stance on Frisk and puts lots of distance in there
9. Continues to focus on Robz

Frisk:
1. RVS timchen
2. Admonishes PPS for misunderstanding game setup (this plays in later when PPS brings the heat)
3. FoS Robz (no way Sharky followed that lead, right?)
4. Baits us to vote him so he can roleclaim (yeah a loose interpretation, here but is how timchen read it)
5. Asks Sharky to explain the vote on him (cmon buddy makes some distance and I'll paint you as clueless noob)
6. Watches in horror as Sharky spills the beans
7. Starts painting Sharky as too smart to make such an error
8. Helps clarify that Sharky is claiming to be VT
9. Continues to belabor the point that Sharky is a noob and couldn't possibly be playing an advanced game despite already establishing his aptitude
10. Blazes a trail and encourages others to follow on manda (Sharky you divert to Robz and I'll divert to manda who happens to be voting for you)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 11:24:27 am
@young_nick - see PPS post #401 for another example.  He is confidently seeing pairs on day 1.  Clearly the game is already solved.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 11:25:49 am
This person sees things I see.

Galz - you must be joking.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 24, 2012, 11:46:51 am
PPS, you are inferring an incredibly complex situation with many steps.  Let me offer a simpler one.

1.  I impulsively responded to TC to start getting things going
2.  I made some early posts that sounded scummy and were not in the interest of the town
3.  I recognize my poor play and try to make people understand my intentions which just make me seem even more scummy.

To summarize, it seems like every single post I make continues to make me look mafia to the eyes of some people.  Some people are going to a scum hunting party and are latching on to every single minute detail of my actions trying to patch together complex situations.  Only 2 people in this entire thread seem to think, "Hey, maybe SB is just a noob."

Everytime I say something, it just gets turned on me.  I've given my explanation in multiple places now and I really don't think I can add anything new to my side.

@PPS, What's so bad about being suspicious of Robz?  And I don't want you to show me point 3 of CF's condemnation.  I read that.  I'm pretty sure most all of us have had a FoS pointed at us at some point.  Is it a crime to post the first vote?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 24, 2012, 11:49:35 am
Another random thought, but if I were the mafia, I would absolutely LOVE all of this finger pointing going on right now.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 24, 2012, 11:52:55 am
@PPS, What's so bad about being suspicious of Robz?  And I don't want you to show me point 3 of CF's condemnation.  I read that.  I'm pretty sure most all of us have had a FoS pointed at us at some point.  Is it a crime to post the first vote?

I think Robz is perfectly deserving of suspicion. I have cast a FoS his way already.

I have fully and completely fleshed out my case here. I see no reason to belabor this point any further. I only responded because Frisk asked me to, I felt I had made myself clear before but apparently not.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 12:00:18 pm
@PPS, What's so bad about being suspicious of Robz?  And I don't want you to show me point 3 of CF's condemnation.  I read that.  I'm pretty sure most all of us have had a FoS pointed at us at some point.  Is it a crime to post the first vote?

I think Robz is perfectly deserving of suspicion. I have cast a FoS his way already.

I have fully and completely fleshed out my case here. I see no reason to belabor this point any further. I only responded because Frisk asked me to, I felt I had made myself clear before but apparently not.

Why would robZ deserve suspicion?  You have already found the mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 24, 2012, 12:16:25 pm
Why would robZ deserve suspicion?  You have already found the mafia.

You ask for clarification on my case then make no effort to refute it but only ridicule it.

How do you suppose I or anyone else interprets that sort of behavior?

I don't want a town mislynch, so if you're town put up a fight not just some silly retorts.
Somebody in here clarified (maybe you) that FoS was when you had your vote on one guy but were looking at another.
Just trying to play like the big boys, here.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 12:29:32 pm
Why would robZ deserve suspicion?  You have already found the mafia.

You ask for clarification on my case then make no effort to refute it but only ridicule it.

How do you suppose I or anyone else interprets that sort of behavior?

I don't want a town mislynch, so if you're town put up a fight not just some silly retorts.
Somebody in here clarified (maybe you) that FoS was when you had your vote on one guy but were looking at another.
Just trying to play like the big boys, here.

I don't really want to put up a fight - because I think we are two townies arguing - and this distraction only helps the scum. 

My viewpoint is that seeing a pair of scum at this point is not very plausible.  The reason I asked for your view on SB was that I would get a better view from you as to whether you thought him to be a bad mafia player (making obv. scum statements) , or a very crafty one (making statements so obviously scummy that he couldn't possibly be mafia).

I settled on thinking that SB was too crafty to do #1, and as a n00b, probably too afraid to do #2.  I've made my share of n00b mistakes (rolefishing in MIV stands out as one example) - but when I drew the serial killer role in MIV - even with only ~1 day of mafia 3 play under my belt, I knew enough to look at my posts before I posted them.

SB's "I want people to think I'm town" statement just reads to me like a townie who isn't giving alot of thought the consequences of his words - because he doesn't need to.

I accused you of being a potential liability - because I KNOW that you have a bad read here - but you act as if you are completely confident in it.  I'm not scum, and I'd hate to lose on Day 3 because you made a similar read and voted it.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 12:30:36 pm
However - this is a newb game - and if it takes lynching me to help you see how easy it is to get blinded by this game - like I was when I lynched Galzria on Day 1 in M3 - then it's probably worth it.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 02:06:57 pm
Hey guys - I know this game is so boring that I needed to go start running my own bastard mod game - but seriously - RobZ would you come in here and make a list?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 24, 2012, 02:08:14 pm
Hey guys - I know this game is so boring that I needed to go start running my own bastard mod game - but seriously - RobZ would you come in here and make a list?

Yeah, I want to see the other 4 lists not produced yet.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 02:10:51 pm
Well - at least I know that RobZ is around and trolling mafia forums.  Tim has been away for a while, and eevee / manda have promised tonight i think.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 24, 2012, 02:12:09 pm
Ok. My list:

Willing to lynch:
C_F: everything I said before (not too different from what PPS said)
      +Something I didn't say yet
      +pushing us to make a list where he was strongly against in MIV
Robz: policy lynch

OK to lynch:
Eevee: no read so far, probably has not said something strong
YN: reading the game differently from I would, but otherwise neutral

Prefer not to lynch:
S_B: I have a policy myself not to lynch newbie d1, but I do find him scummy
manda: slightly town read
Galz: ok, I won't say obvtwon this time, but I don't form a trap wagon to accuse people following me scummy
PPS: I don't fully agree with his analysis but I think spelling them out in detail and willing to discuss is protown

@frisk: I don't like your tone on the impossibility of finding the scum pair d1. Sure this is unlikely, but the case is not entirely baseless. It would have been better if you could refute the case rather than saying OMG this is ridiculous. This attitude reminds me O's play in M4. And I don't understand why you are berating PPS. He might be wrong sometimes but he is listening.
SB's "I want people to think I'm town" statement just reads to me like a townie who isn't giving alot of thought the consequences of his words - because he doesn't need to.
So basically combining your previous replies you are saying he has made an obviously scummy statement implying he is townie. There is WIFOM, sure, but if this is the case, I don't think you need to jump out and stop him. (Indeed, for me his reply sounds neutral.) But if he is your partner I can see the urgency to point things out before he blunders even more.

I'd also like to remind everyone in case they didn't read M4. frisk warned about the danger of the list there: scum may just pick someone among the ok list of everyone and wagon when the deadline draws near.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 02:15:09 pm
timchen - my feelings on the list changed when it actually worked and was not executed by scum.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 24, 2012, 03:02:14 pm
Just realized I probably shouldn't post pertinent game stuff outside of this forum.  I apologize.  And here is what I posted in the BMIV thread.

@Robz, I think I have the best chance of reaching you if I post here.  Do you have a list for MVII?  I think CF would at the very least appreciate a "I haven't gathered my thoughts yet but will get it out around (insert time of choice here)" type of post.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 24, 2012, 03:28:17 pm
@Robz: I don't want to vote you just because of your lurkiness. I may have to if you continue to be on the forum but refuse to post in this game.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 03:31:26 pm
The only thing that is stopping me is that I felt the same way about popsofctown in MIV.  His behavior was explicitly a pain in the ass.  I was shocked when the mafia killed him and he was town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 24, 2012, 03:44:31 pm
Just realized I probably shouldn't post pertinent game stuff outside of this forum.  I apologize.  And here is what I posted in the BMIV thread.

@Robz, I think I have the best chance of reaching you if I post here.  Do you have a list for MVII?  I think CF would at the very least appreciate a "I haven't gathered my thoughts yet but will get it out around (insert time of choice here)" type of post.

I have given reasons for why I think what i do about people:

What else do you want from me? I voted for PPS. He's behaving more seriously in this game than he did in other, uh, Forum experiences I've had with him.

At this point, Shark_bait is newbie town, I think. Manda has the enthusiasm of a potential mafia, or maybe just somebody really excited about the game. Too early too tell. Eevee and Galzria are same as always. Frisk is an acceptable lynch.

Who am I missing? Oh, no particular reads on Young Nick or Timchen.

But we won't know anything until we just pick somebody to kill. The most important thing--more important than finding a mafia, actually, because we won't find a mafia, if all other games are any lesson--is to not pick a townie with a power role to be lynched.

I am willing to lynch PPS, possibly Frisk. I am next most suspicious of Manda, and I am unwilling to lynch anyone else. I most highly suspect Sharky is town, but please don't put much stock in my opinions at this point.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 03:48:48 pm
Down to 2!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 03:52:02 pm
RobZ - will you rank eeVee, Galz, Young Nick, and timchen in order of suspicion?  You're kindof messing up the spreadsheet.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 24, 2012, 03:59:55 pm
RobZ - will you rank eeVee, Galz, Young Nick, and timchen in order of suspicion?  You're kindof messing up the spreadsheet.

Fine! The demands of you people. I'm currently trying to conquer Europe.

Suspicious, PPS, Frisk, Manda, Young Nick, Eevee, Galzria, Timchen, Sharky, Not Suspicious
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 04:01:44 pm
RobZ - will you rank eeVee, Galz, Young Nick, and timchen in order of suspicion?  You're kindof messing up the spreadsheet.

Fine! The demands of you people. I'm currently trying to conquer Europe.

Suspicious, PPS, Frisk, Manda, Young Nick, Eevee, Galzria, Timchen, Sharky, Not Suspicious

Thank you.  I'll have QVist style rankings out as soons Fuzzy and Manda post their lists.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 24, 2012, 04:08:03 pm
Can we expect short little summaries of the various things people have said about each person  :P
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 24, 2012, 04:09:20 pm
RobZ - will you rank eeVee, Galz, Young Nick, and timchen in order of suspicion?  You're kindof messing up the spreadsheet.

Fine! The demands of you people. I'm currently trying to conquer Europe.

Suspicious, PPS, Frisk, Manda, Young Nick, Eevee, Galzria, Timchen, Sharky, Not Suspicious

Thank you.  I'll have QVist style rankings out as soons Fuzzy and Manda post their lists.
Just woke up from a nap, I'll be compiling a list in two hours (try to reread something first to gather some actual insight).
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 04:26:09 pm
Can we expect short little summaries of the various things people have said about each person  :P

Probably not. 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 24, 2012, 04:27:50 pm
Can we expect short little summaries of the various things people have said about each person  :P

Probably not.

Well, I demand it! You lurker.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 04:38:17 pm
Something like:

Galzria / RobZ is considered a strong opening - currently ranked 44 on councilroom?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 24, 2012, 04:50:25 pm
Something like:

Galzria / RobZ is considered a strong opening - currently ranked 44 on councilroom?

Now where's that damn +1...

Oh well, here, have a cookie.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 04:51:56 pm
Something like:

Galzria / RobZ is considered a strong opening - currently ranked 44 on councilroom?

Now where's that damn +1...

Oh well, here, have a cookie.

Which one of you is the higher costed card?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 24, 2012, 05:14:47 pm
Something like:

Galzria / RobZ is considered a strong opening - currently ranked 44 on councilroom?

Now where's that damn +1...

Oh well, here, have a cookie.

Which one of you is the higher costed card?

Me. I've won more forum games than Robz. ;D
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 24, 2012, 06:04:18 pm
I'm here! Reading everything a couple of times. Post coming soon.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 06:17:56 pm
All right - I'm going to have to shut down for a few hours on account of family times.  My spreadsheet is looking snazzy.

Am I allowed to post images in here?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 24, 2012, 06:46:01 pm
Aaaaaaalright. Here's my list, and within it, my answer to Frisk's question from several pages back.

Willing to lynch:
Sharky, for reasons I've stated repeatedly. However, I'm becoming less sure as the game goes on. Like Galz said, he's the scummiest player here right now but I'm now open to the possibility that he's just making noob mistakes.

Might be willing to lynch:
PPS: He seems to be trying really hard to help the town, but his insistence on having found the mafia pair this early in the game makes me very wary. Sure, it's technically possible, but I don't like that he's pushing so hard for it.
Robz: His new playstyle is really off-putting. But I don't know that I think changing everything up is something he'd do if he were scum. Then again, I've only followed games where he was town.
Eevee: I don't like how he said he didn't have any reads on anything yet, and talking about how he's going to reread so he can try to be helpful seems like a mafiapology to me, but he says he has a list coming soon, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Unwilling to lynch (today):
Frisk: Mostly feels like town to me, but is the most suspicious of my town reads
timchen: Practically no read, which I don't like, but he still mostly FEELS town to me. Also, I'm really curious as to what he "hasn't said yet."
YN: pretty strong town read
Galz: strong town read
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 07:01:15 pm
Furry - you are last
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 24, 2012, 08:03:43 pm
Furry - you are last
Sorry, got caught up with poker action (yay). Didnt have time to reread anything, but:

From most willing to least willing to lynch: manda, young_nick, sharky, timchen, galzria, robz, PPS, captain frisk, eevee. I think I could be swayed to voting anyone but me if someone presented a good case or made a scumslip or something, which just shows how lost I am here. One point though, will newer players be able to conceal their mafianess as well as the veterans? Maybe I should look more carefully to robz, galzria and frisk, just because they are most likely to be able to play sneaky sneaky mafia?

PPS and Frisk seem to be the most active at scumhunting, so even if I find them equally scummy to someone else, I guess they are going to be more of an asset to town in case they are town so less willing to vote for them (+ want to reward the effort). Robz might be more useful later if he gets more interested in the game, but I wouldnt want to reward the playstyle he chose here even if I dont think its an indicator of scumminess.

Thing is, the list is pretty much random, I really have shamefully little reads on anyone here. Dont know why this is so hard, maybe because the action was so slow earlier and I was reading a post and waiting 3 hours for the next one to come or something, but I dont think my list is going to be very useful at all.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 24, 2012, 08:41:25 pm
Some food for thoughts here: frisk has almost 4 times the post count I have here... but I can hardly see even two times the content.

If you investigate the previous games, I don't think he is so much a frequent poster, especially at this stage.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 24, 2012, 09:32:05 pm
Ok - back at a computer. 

Here's the results of our table:

(http://i.snag.gy/7obKV.jpg)

And the rankings - in lynchability:

1. RobZ - Average Rank - 3.125 / Max Rank: 1 (SB) / Min Rank: 6 (Eevee)
By far the #1

2. Captain_Frisk - Average Rank - 3.625 / Max Rank: 1 (Galz, timchen, PPS) / Min Rank: 8 (eeVee,shark_bait)
3. Manda - Average Rank 3.875 / Max Rank: 1 (Captain_Frisk, Eevee) / Min Rank: 7 (Galzria / YN)


4t. PPS - Average Rank 4.5 / Max Rank: 1 (RobZ) / Min Rank: 8 (timchen)
4t. YN - Average Rank 4.5 / Max Rank: 2 (eeVee) / Min Rank: 7 (manda)
4t. SB - Average Rank 4.5 / Max Rank: 1 (YN,Manda) / Min Rank: 8 (RobZ,Galzria,Captain_Frisk)
And a 3 way tie for 4th!  SB is the most polarizing character here.

7. TC - Average Rank 4.625 / Max Rank: 2 (Captain_Frisk, Galzria) / Min Rank: 7 (RobZ)
8. eeVee - Average Rank 4.875 / Max Rank: 3 (timchen) / Min Rank: 7 (SB,PPS)
Still close behind the middle of the pack

9. Galzria - Average Rank 6.875 / Max Rank: 5 (EeVee) / Min Rank: 8 (manda,YN,pps)
This isn't even close.

I think this is interesting.  It won't draw perfect parallels to MIV, as the scum here only have to vote for one of their teammates.

Here's the same chart - but with the Yes / Maybe / No designations.  I had to use some interpretation for those who refused to provide a yes / no maybe... for example i assumed that eeVee was willing to lynch his top 2, and unwilling to lynch the bottom 2.
(http://i.snag.gy/XKpka.jpg)

So - everyone is maybe willing to lynch RobZ - but more people actively want to lynch me.

Also of note - pairs of people unwilling to lynch eachother:

timchen / manda
pps / timchen
pps / eevee

I don't think that these are material - but spreadsheets are fun.

What do you all think? I'm happy we actually got everyone to talk today - but I'd really like to hear from the more quiet people.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 24, 2012, 11:12:15 pm
I wish I have more things to say (still studying). But your pairing apparently lacks frisk/shark, which lists each other at #8. This is beyond stupid for a scum pair (except some WIFOM) and does point me toward other directions.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 25, 2012, 06:18:10 am
I find it interesting that in my column each weight is represented; I got a unique weighting from each player.

Thanks for the work, Frisk.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 07:49:08 am
Would be willing to Lynch
Robz

Might be willing to Lynch
Manda
PPS
YN
TC
Galz
Eevee
CF

With the might be list in order of most likely (If I weren't voting for Robz, I'd probably be voting one of these) to least likely (I don't 100% trust them, but I will not support a wagon against them)

I wish I have more things to say (still studying). But your pairing apparently lacks frisk/shark, which lists each other at #8. This is beyond stupid for a scum pair (except some WIFOM) and does point me toward other directions.

Shark_bait had me in his "maybe" section, although to be consistent I probably should have dropped the last 2 into "unwilling", so that does make us a pairing of unwilling voters.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 07:50:07 am
Would be willing to Lynch
Robz

Might be willing to Lynch
Manda
PPS
YN
TC
Galz
Eevee
CF

With the might be list in order of most likely (If I weren't voting for Robz, I'd probably be voting one of these) to least likely (I don't 100% trust them, but I will not support a wagon against them)

I wish I have more things to say (still studying). But your pairing apparently lacks frisk/shark, which lists each other at #8. This is beyond stupid for a scum pair (except some WIFOM) and does point me toward other directions.

Shark_bait had me in his "maybe" section, although to be consistent I probably should have dropped the last 2 into "unwilling", so that does make us a pairing of unwilling voters.

This would also make SB + eeVee another pair.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 08:04:02 am
Come on - I was hoping for an explosion of discussion here.  We now have everyone on the record.

1st observation - we probably shouldn't lynch RobZ.  If we all agree on it, then its likely that the mafia agrees. 
2nd observeration - none of us suspect Galzria at all.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 25, 2012, 08:58:12 am
Come on - I was hoping for an explosion of discussion here.  We now have everyone on the record.

1st observation - we probably shouldn't lynch RobZ.  If we all agree on it, then its likely that the mafia agrees. 
2nd observeration - none of us suspect Galzria at all.
I didnt agree on a robz lynch. Galz is indeed flying super under the radar.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 08:59:58 am
Come on - I was hoping for an explosion of discussion here.  We now have everyone on the record.

1st observation - we probably shouldn't lynch RobZ.  If we all agree on it, then its likely that the mafia agrees. 
2nd observeration - none of us suspect Galzria at all.
I didnt agree on a robz lynch. Galz is indeed flying super under the radar.

You didn't give me yes / no / maybe, so I put your top 2 in yes, and bottom 2 in no, and the rest maybe.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 25, 2012, 09:14:20 am
Come on - I was hoping for an explosion of discussion here.  We now have everyone on the record.

1st observation - we probably shouldn't lynch RobZ.  If we all agree on it, then its likely that the mafia agrees. 
2nd observeration - none of us suspect Galzria at all.
I didnt agree on a robz lynch. Galz is indeed flying super under the radar.

You didn't give me yes / no / maybe, so I put your top 2 in yes, and bottom 2 in no, and the rest maybe.

Oh yes, my bad. I though I had robz one spot lower than I did. I had shark_bait 3rd, how are we a pair?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 09:18:50 am
Come on - I was hoping for an explosion of discussion here.  We now have everyone on the record.

1st observation - we probably shouldn't lynch RobZ.  If we all agree on it, then its likely that the mafia agrees. 
2nd observeration - none of us suspect Galzria at all.
I didnt agree on a robz lynch. Galz is indeed flying super under the radar.

You didn't give me yes / no / maybe, so I put your top 2 in yes, and bottom 2 in no, and the rest maybe.

Oh yes, my bad. I though I had robz one spot lower than I did. I had shark_bait 3rd, how are we a pair?

Inability to read charts without sufficient coffee in the morning is my only excuse.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 25, 2012, 11:45:37 am
Why are 6 people (including me) unwilling to lynch Galzria? Show me a game where 6 people are an unwilling to lynch Galzria, and I will show you a game where I have failed...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 11:54:28 am
Why are 6 people (including me) unwilling to lynch Galzria? Show me a game where 6 people are an unwilling to lynch Galzria, and I will show you a game where I have failed...

I have no idea.  My first thought was to go back to the tables analysis. 

Person with least suspicion: Me (Serial Killer)
Person with 2nd least suspicion: DSell (Mafia)

But - in that game up to that point I had truly been playing as if I was a town vig - so I didn't consider it damning evidence.  It wasn't until I murdered Galzria in his sleep that I made a truly anti-town move.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 25, 2012, 11:57:04 am
Should we lynch Galz just because no one is suspicious of him?  ;D
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 25, 2012, 12:03:27 pm
He was a maybe for me, well I guess everyone was a maybe.  On D1, I can't really bring myself to %100 trust anyone.  I think the real question we need to consider is why no one was suspicious of him.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 25, 2012, 12:06:52 pm
He was a maybe for me, well I guess everyone was a maybe.  On D1, I can't really bring myself to %100 trust anyone.  I think the real question we need to consider is why no one was suspicious of him.
Same here. I guess he has been sort of posting but not saying much, really not getting any attention at all. I'm guessing day 2 will be a lot easier, some people might start playing a bit different when the field gets thinner and also less people to analyze.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 25, 2012, 12:16:14 pm
less people to analyze.

I see we're in agreement that a lynch must occur by the end of the day  ;)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 25, 2012, 12:24:05 pm
Or maybe he is saying that he's OK with NL today and letting Mafia get a free night-kill.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 25, 2012, 12:24:18 pm
(I jest, I jest)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 25, 2012, 12:27:46 pm
I was referring to the use of the plural "people" than than the singular "person" indication more than 1 person will die by the time tomorrow's day starts.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 25, 2012, 12:49:58 pm
Unless the doctor or jailer (if we have one or both) make a correct decision and thus prevent a night-kill. Boy, would that be something, to go NL then have no night-kill so we had 9 people starting D2.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 25, 2012, 01:00:24 pm
As my good friend says, "Never assume, it makes an ass out of you a me."

This may be pessimistic, but I'm going with the realization that the PR won't do anything meaningful tonight.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 01:07:54 pm
I think it is probably more instructive to look at middle ground pairings. I'll list every pairing that lists each other among 3-6. It's not guaranteed the scum pair is hear but there is a higher possibility I believe. Judging from the overall opinion we have to (for now) exclude Galz from the list for consistency (because if Galz is scum, his partner can probably downvote him to hide in the crowd; so this list is only meaningful if we take Galz as town.)

robz, eevee
robz, galz
robz, manda
eevee, galz
eevee, timchen
YN, timchen
YN, frisk
YN, PPS
manda, timchen
timchen, shark

Fortunately I am the person to appear the most times on the list and I know I am town. So if we cut me and Galz, we are left with

robz, eevee
robz, manda
YN, frisk
YN, PPS

For now maybe we should cut Robz as well. Robz wouldn't have played that bad to get every non-scum player to vote for him.

So... frisk, you haven't said much to your partner YN as far as I can tell. Do you want to say something?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 01:17:38 pm
Young nick and I agreed that I would be the vocal one, and he would be the lurker.

Oh... wait a second...

I find it incredibly interesting that you are jumping on the pairs analysis - which I explicitly called out as probably useless.  Were you sensitive because it called you and manda out?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 25, 2012, 01:19:48 pm
I was duly admonished that it is completely ludicrous to be calling pairs D1. Also it is quite the coincidence that timchen took the lead on finding middle ground pairs so he could take himself off the list despite appearing there the most frequently.

But, if we're going to play this kind of game then I get to take myself off the list as well and just for the fun of it I'm going to ignore the 2 people left I had highest on my own list.

This leaves YN, manda.

Tada! Which one do we lynch first?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 01:36:40 pm
@frisk: As far as I can see I have no way to know that I will be high on this list beforehand. I only realize this after I compiled it. Also, I agree to some extent that pairing analysis at the bottom may not be too useful, but I think pairing in the middle is more interesting. Anyway it is at least an unbiased test. Or do you have better analysis to do from the tables?

On the other hand, why do you focus on me and manda? Not me and YN or me and eevee?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 01:38:20 pm
But, if we're going to play this kind of game then I get to take myself off the list as well and just for the fun of it I'm going to ignore the 2 people left I had highest on my own list.

This leaves YN, manda.

Tada! Which one do we lynch first?
What do you mean? First thing, there is no YN, manda pair. And why do you want to ignore the two people highest on your own list?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 01:40:32 pm
@frisk: As far as I can see I have no way to know that I will be high on this list beforehand. I only realize this after I compiled it. Also, I agree to some extent that pairing analysis at the bottom may not be too useful, but I think pairing in the middle is more interesting. Anyway it is at least an unbiased test. Or do you have better analysis to do from the tables?

On the other hand, why do you focus on me and manda? Not me and YN or me and eevee?

I found it so interesting because you guys were close to the diagonal axis (obviously nobody will lynch themselves - i mean - morgrim isn't in this game).  Also - since you were my top 2 suspects - it was extra confirmation to bias myself with.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 25, 2012, 01:46:43 pm
But, if we're going to play this kind of game then I get to take myself off the list as well and just for the fun of it I'm going to ignore the 2 people left I had highest on my own list.

This leaves YN, manda.

Tada! Which one do we lynch first?
What do you mean? First thing, there is no YN, manda pair. And why do you want to ignore the two people highest on your own list?

So you admit the method makes no sense. I'm glad we are in agreement, then.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 01:49:19 pm
No I do not agree my method makes no sense. However I don't understand what you are doing.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 01:50:12 pm
No I do not agree my method makes no sense. However I don't understand what you are doing.

@young_nick - see recent timchen / PPS for example #3 that you asked me for previosly.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 25, 2012, 01:51:03 pm
I don't think PPS meant me and manda were a pair but rather that we were the only two individuals left on the list after he removes those who is confident are town. Or something along those lines.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 25, 2012, 01:52:49 pm
@C_F: I agree that he jumps to conclusions and such but this does not make him a liability in my mind, but rather someone who speaks his mind and who can be reasoned with. There are examples everywhere, yes, but I don't know if I see his play as a bad thing. He keeps conversation going, something that you have said is a quality you like. I only fear that he would quick-hammer without letting someone defend themselves. Otherwise I have no qualms with his play.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 01:55:42 pm
I only fear that he would quick-hammer without letting someone defend themselves.

Agreed with your post - but your quote this would be the definition of a liability.

Quote
A person or thing whose presence or behavior is likely to cause embarrassment or put one at a disadvantage

I don't want to lynch him because I think he is town.  If we were going to mislynch though - I would choose him in a heartbeat.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 25, 2012, 01:58:45 pm
I don't actually think he would quick-hammer, it is just the only bad thing I could see him doing I guess. I mean he provides information. I'd rather mislynch a lurker. When I say lurker I mean someone lurkier than myself, so probably robz or eevee. But I don't want to mislynch. I want to buck the trend and get it right D1 or not lynch at all.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 25, 2012, 02:00:41 pm
I don't think PPS meant me and manda were a pair but rather that we were the only two individuals left on the list after he removes those who is confident are town. Or something along those lines.

Correct, timchen's method is to remove himself (understandable but flagrantly ignores where the data is pointing) then to remove Robz which is also strongly indicated by the data (some might call this willful ignorance).

I just mimicked the absurdity. I took his new list, removed myself and decided to remove my top contenders from my internal dataset which just leaves 2.

The problem is that the pair a process such as this will boil down to is entirely subjective based on the order of who begins the process and who ends it.

Frisk's original dataset has no such subjective ignorance interjected into it.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 25, 2012, 02:02:09 pm
Ultimately, I'm saying that such manipulation of the honest data tends to make anyone doing it look dishonest, imho.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 25, 2012, 02:03:56 pm
I wouldn't say C_F's stuff is innately objective though. He does take the liberty of assuming that at least the two most suspicious are lynch-able and at least the two least suspicious are not on everyone's list even when people did not break their list up into categories like that. I'm not saying he is juking the stats here, but that they aren't a perfect representation of everyone's lists.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 25, 2012, 02:06:04 pm
I wouldn't say C_F's stuff is innately objective though. He does take the liberty of assuming that at least the two most suspicious are lynch-able and at least the two least suspicious are not on everyone's list even when people did not break their list up into categories like that. I'm not saying he is juking the stats here, but that they aren't a perfect representation of everyone's lists.
I'm quite certain Frisk isnt trying to feed us misinformation. Even if he is scum, he is doing the lists to appear town, not to confuse us.

How am I a lurker? Someone did a post count a couple pages back, I think I had more than my fair share.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 02:06:16 pm
I wouldn't say C_F's stuff is innately objective though. He does take the liberty of assuming that at least the two most suspicious are lynch-able and at least the two least suspicious are not on everyone's list even when people did not break their list up into categories like that. I'm not saying he is juking the stats here, but that they aren't a perfect representation of everyone's lists.

I will happily update the lists if desired - i can't help it if eeVee wanted to provide as little information as possible.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 25, 2012, 02:11:01 pm
I'm not saying that C_F intentionally screwed with the results in order to slant it any one way, but that for presentability's sake he altered them a little bit. No, this isn't innately bad, it's just something he did to slightly alter the results. I appreciate the compilation very much, in fact.

I doubt the original version would change much of anything, to be honest.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 25, 2012, 02:11:45 pm
I wouldn't say C_F's stuff is innately objective though. He does take the liberty of assuming that at least the two most suspicious are lynch-able and at least the two least suspicious are not on everyone's list even when people did not break their list up into categories like that. I'm not saying he is juking the stats here, but that they aren't a perfect representation of everyone's lists.
I'm quite certain Frisk isnt trying to feed us misinformation. Even if he is scum, he is doing the lists to appear town, not to confuse us.

How am I a lurker? Someone did a post count a couple pages back, I think I had more than my fair share.

I can agree with "useless" or "bad at scumhunting" but I do participate.

I wouldn't say C_F's stuff is innately objective though. He does take the liberty of assuming that at least the two most suspicious are lynch-able and at least the two least suspicious are not on everyone's list even when people did not break their list up into categories like that. I'm not saying he is juking the stats here, but that they aren't a perfect representation of everyone's lists.

I will happily update the lists if desired - i can't help it if eeVee wanted to provide as little information as possible.
I took Robz's list as my template, didnt realize what exactly you were doing.

I might be willing to lynch anyone but Frisk, PPS and Robz. Willing to vote for Nick or manda.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 02:13:00 pm
I found it so interesting because you guys were close to the diagonal axis (obviously nobody will lynch themselves - i mean - morgrim isn't in this game).  Also - since you were my top 2 suspects - it was extra confirmation to bias myself with.
Are you implying there is something being near diagonal? I don't see it, unless you order people in some hideous way.

@PPS: my analysis can strictly only point out the pairs. That is, you have to look in units of pairs. It does not make sense just to single out a person in the list to say he is suspicious. Also, as far as I can see you are also cutting off your highest and lowest suspicions. That does not make sense at all. I took 3-6 because that is in my opinion where scum would be likely to rank their partner among. If you took 3-6 from your own list, well, I am not sure what that meant.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 02:13:13 pm
I wouldn't say C_F's stuff is innately objective though. He does take the liberty of assuming that at least the two most suspicious are lynch-able and at least the two least suspicious are not on everyone's list even when people did not break their list up into categories like that. I'm not saying he is juking the stats here, but that they aren't a perfect representation of everyone's lists.
I'm quite certain Frisk isnt trying to feed us misinformation. Even if he is scum, he is doing the lists to appear town, not to confuse us.

How am I a lurker? Someone did a post count a couple pages back, I think I had more than my fair share.

I can agree with "useless" or "bad at scumhunting" but I do participate.

I wouldn't say C_F's stuff is innately objective though. He does take the liberty of assuming that at least the two most suspicious are lynch-able and at least the two least suspicious are not on everyone's list even when people did not break their list up into categories like that. I'm not saying he is juking the stats here, but that they aren't a perfect representation of everyone's lists.

I will happily update the lists if desired - i can't help it if eeVee wanted to provide as little information as possible.
I took Robz's list as my template, didnt realize what exactly you were doing.

I might be willing to lynch anyone but Frisk, PPS and Robz. Willing to vote for Nick or manda.

In that case, the only thing that really changes is that we are no longer unanimous in maybe willing to lynch Robz.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 02:14:18 pm
I found it so interesting because you guys were close to the diagonal axis (obviously nobody will lynch themselves - i mean - morgrim isn't in this game).  Also - since you were my top 2 suspects - it was extra confirmation to bias myself with.
Are you implying there is something being near diagonal? I don't see it, unless you order people in some hideous way.

No - i only noticed it because you guys were right next to eachother U/U as 5 and 6.  If you had been 1 and 9, I might not have noticed the symmetry. 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 02:20:55 pm
@PPS: simply put, I have my analysis as objective as possible. Robz and Galz are just the top and bottom ranked players. The bottom is an easy place to hide (so if galz is scum this list is useless and we have to include essentially every galz-x pairing) and the top spot is just somewhere scum is unlikely to be. I didn't control who is at top and at bottom. So if you want to cut the list shorter this seems like an objective way to cut.

The only subjective part you may say, is to cut myself out. I know 100% that I am town and that is why I present this analysis to the rest of the town. If you don't trust me, you can put me back and see which pair is the most suspicious.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 02:22:04 pm
@PPS: simply put, I have my analysis as objective as possible. Robz and Galz are just the top and bottom ranked players. The bottom is an easy place to hide (so if galz is scum this list is useless and we have to include essentially every galz-x pairing) and the top spot is just somewhere scum is unlikely to be. I didn't control who is at top and at bottom. So if you want to cut the list shorter this seems like an objective way to cut.

The only subjective part you may say, is to cut myself out. I know 100% that I am town and that is why I present this analysis to the rest of the town. If you don't trust me, you can put me back and see which pair is the most suspicious.

Whats funny is that even with your 3-6 range (which I actually did myself this morning), you and manda show up again.  I love it!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 02:35:22 pm

Whats funny is that even with your 3-6 range (which I actually did myself this morning), you and manda show up again.  I love it!

I find it incredibly interesting that you are jumping on the pairs analysis - which I explicitly called out as probably useless.  Were you sensitive because it called you and manda out?
@frisk: I must have misunderstood you at some point. Haven't you already pointed out that me and manda are on my list? And honestly I think now you can start looking elsewhere, if you are not with YN. If I were scum, I honestly cannot think of a reason for myself not to exchange shark and manda's position if I know I am going to do this analysis.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 02:37:32 pm
*sorry I meant galz. Couldn't exactly recall how I ranked among the people I don't want to lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 02:55:34 pm

Whats funny is that even with your 3-6 range (which I actually did myself this morning), you and manda show up again.  I love it!

I find it incredibly interesting that you are jumping on the pairs analysis - which I explicitly called out as probably useless.  Were you sensitive because it called you and manda out?
@frisk: I must have misunderstood you at some point. Haven't you already pointed out that me and manda are on my list? And honestly I think now you can start looking elsewhere, if you are not with YN. If I were scum, I honestly cannot think of a reason for myself not to exchange shark and manda's position if I know I am going to do this analysis.

So why should i start looking elsewhere?  Manda was my #1 suspect.  Seems that most of the town is pro manda lynch, but not enough for me to be concerned that she's 100% town. 

Who would you recommend that I look at?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 25, 2012, 03:13:24 pm
You know, I think I'm coming around to a Frisk lynch. Too much leading the town.

Vote: Captain_Frisk
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 03:15:21 pm
Is that L-1?  No Morgrim in sight though.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 03:15:48 pm
Is frisk at L-1 now?

If so, do you want to claim?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 03:18:17 pm
Weak one shot vig with one shot roleblock immune.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 25, 2012, 03:20:45 pm
Hey, looks like we got a real life Vanilla Townie to L-1. That's great news! Hammer time.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 03:22:26 pm
I would say we shouldn't hammer unless we see an explicit claim from frisk or an explicit refusal to do so.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 25, 2012, 03:23:22 pm
Daaa da da duh, da duh, da duh Can't touch this
Daaa da da duh, da duh, da duh Can't touch this

I will not hammer because I do not believe in this lynch
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 03:24:43 pm
Hey, looks like we got a real life Vanilla Townie to L-1. That's great news! Hammer time.

Why would this be great news?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 25, 2012, 03:32:54 pm
Hey, looks like we got a real life Vanilla Townie to L-1. That's great news! Hammer time.

Why would this be great news?
I'm going to assume its because it means robz gets to keep his vote on you (his preferred target).
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 25, 2012, 03:52:17 pm
Hey, looks like we got a real life Vanilla Townie to L-1. That's great news! Hammer time.

Why would this be great news?

Because things get messy if you claim a power role, as you know.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 03:54:07 pm
Hey, looks like we got a real life Vanilla Townie to L-1. That's great news! Hammer time.

Why would this be great news?

Because things get messy if you claim a power role, as you know.

So you would rather lynch vanilla town than force a claim?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 25, 2012, 03:56:20 pm
Hmmmmm... I'm really concerned by Frisk right now. He really does seem like he's leading the town. But if he were mafia, I'd think he'd try to avoid that... lots of WIFOM though.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 25, 2012, 03:59:15 pm
Hmmmmm... I'm really concerned by Frisk right now. He really does seem like he's leading the town. But if he were mafia, I'd think he'd try to avoid that... lots of WIFOM though.
Guys, how about we reconsider the Frisk lynch and maybe all vote for manda instead?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 25, 2012, 04:02:23 pm
As a side note, I have a paper due soon so I haven't/won't have a whole lot of time to be on here. That'll change  in a couple of days though.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 04:05:07 pm
I'm active because the rest of you are all lurking - and I'm really putting off work.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 25, 2012, 04:11:00 pm
I'm active because the rest of you are all lurking - and I'm really putting off work.

That's a good point. The "leading" may just be trying to get everyone to actually talk. Discussion definitely benefits the town, whether you are scum and leading or not.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 04:15:43 pm
so frisk, are you claiming VT?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 25, 2012, 04:18:55 pm
Are we about to hear timchen's big "something I haven't said yet? I feel a twinclaim coming on.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 25, 2012, 04:19:16 pm
All joking aside, though, I'm really curious to hear what he has to say.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 25, 2012, 04:20:05 pm
Are we about to hear timchen's big "something I haven't said yet?" I feel a twinclaim coming on.
fixed
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 04:23:11 pm
I have not claimed anything.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 04:24:02 pm
Do you plan to?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 25, 2012, 04:25:01 pm
I have a big project underway at work and half the time I'm not even in my office but I keep finding a reason to come back here and catch up on this thread from time to time.

:popcorn:
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 04:29:00 pm
Do you plan to?

Do you think it would be pro-town for me to do so?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 04:33:03 pm
I definitely think so.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 04:34:47 pm
I definitely think so.

Have you read this? http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=A_Beginner's_Guide_to_Claiming
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 25, 2012, 04:35:07 pm
I definitely think so.

Would you mind explaining why you think claiming would be pro-town.  I'm having a difficult time seeing how this helps us.  In all the scenarios I postulate in my head, I just see lots of confusion coming from anything CF might claim.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 04:41:24 pm
So - if I have it correctly:

RobZ, Galzria, PPS and timchen are voting for me.  All 4 of of them have previously stated a willingness to lynch me.

Young Nick and SB had me as a maybe

Manda, eeVee had me as no.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 25, 2012, 04:43:51 pm
My maybe could be essentially considered a "no" for now.  I only put maybe because I don't want to %100 trust someone on D1 and that my opinion of them may change on future days.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 04:46:06 pm
So then my life is in young nick's hands.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 25, 2012, 04:51:09 pm
Hey, looks like we got a real life Vanilla Townie to L-1. That's great news! Hammer time.

Why would this be great news?

Because things get messy if you claim a power role, as you know.

So you would rather lynch vanilla town than force a claim?

Yes, I would ABSOLUTELY rather lynch vanilla town than force a claim.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 04:52:02 pm
Hey, looks like we got a real life Vanilla Townie to L-1. That's great news! Hammer time.

Why would this be great news?

Because things get messy if you claim a power role, as you know.

So you would rather lynch vanilla town than force a claim?

Yes, I would ABSOLUTELY rather lynch vanilla town than force a claim.

Except that a forced claim is actually more likely to be scum than town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 25, 2012, 05:09:05 pm
I repeat: I'm finding manda scummier by the minute. All of you voting for Frisk, here is her reaction to his imminent-looking lynch:

Hmmmmm... I'm really concerned by Frisk right now. He really does seem like he's leading the town. But if he were mafia, I'd think he'd try to avoid that... lots of WIFOM though.

As a side note, I have a paper due soon so I haven't/won't have a whole lot of time to be on here. That'll change  in a couple of days though.

I'm active because the rest of you are all lurking - and I'm really putting off work.

That's a good point. The "leading" may just be trying to get everyone to actually talk. Discussion definitely benefits the town, whether you are scum and leading or not.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 05:11:44 pm
I repeat: I'm finding manda scummier by the minute. All of you voting for Frisk, here is her reaction to his imminent-looking lynch:

Hmmmmm... I'm really concerned by Frisk right now. He really does seem like he's leading the town. But if he were mafia, I'd think he'd try to avoid that... lots of WIFOM though.

As a side note, I have a paper due soon so I haven't/won't have a whole lot of time to be on here. That'll change  in a couple of days though.

I'm active because the rest of you are all lurking - and I'm really putting off work.

That's a good point. The "leading" may just be trying to get everyone to actually talk. Discussion definitely benefits the town, whether you are scum and leading or not.

That's funny - because I think she's too good to hedge so obviously!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 05:12:38 pm
I definitely think so.

Have you read this? http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=A_Beginner's_Guide_to_Claiming
Now I have read. I stand by what I said. Have you read it before you posted your claim theory?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 05:13:33 pm
I definitely think so.

Have you read this? http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=A_Beginner's_Guide_to_Claiming
Now I have read. I stand by what I said. Have you read it before you posted your claim theory?

I actually had not - I really wish I had read its linked article - as I had looked long and hard for serial killer strategy during m4
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 25, 2012, 05:16:23 pm
I repeat: I'm finding manda scummier by the minute. All of you voting for Frisk, here is her reaction to his imminent-looking lynch:

Hmmmmm... I'm really concerned by Frisk right now. He really does seem like he's leading the town. But if he were mafia, I'd think he'd try to avoid that... lots of WIFOM though.

As a side note, I have a paper due soon so I haven't/won't have a whole lot of time to be on here. That'll change  in a couple of days though.

I'm active because the rest of you are all lurking - and I'm really putting off work.

That's a good point. The "leading" may just be trying to get everyone to actually talk. Discussion definitely benefits the town, whether you are scum and leading or not.

That's funny - because I think she's too good to hedge so obviously!

Once again I think mafia Frisk would say "omg thats so correct, guys manda come on!?!" to save himself. Thiis feels like town Frisk caring more about town's success than his own life.

I really think Frisk is town here. Lets not do this. (This should not be read as me softclaiming an investigative role. It's just a hunch, I wont softclaim anything, whether I have a role or not.)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 25, 2012, 05:25:46 pm
Vote Count 1-12

Captain_Frisk (4): timchen, Galzria, pingpongsam, Robz888
shark_bait (2): manda2014, Young Nick
manda2014 (2): Eevee, Captain_Frisk
Robz888 (1): shark_bait

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 25, 2012, 05:29:41 pm
Didnt realize manda wasnt voting for frisk. Thats somewhat confusing.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 25, 2012, 05:45:59 pm
I, like S_B, had C_F as a maybe mainly because I wasn't 100% confident about him. I would consider hammering but before I do so, I would want to hear timchen's unexplained reason(s) for voting for C_F. Don't expect a quick-hammer anytime soon, that's for sure.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 25, 2012, 06:01:28 pm
Once again I think mafia Frisk would say "omg thats so correct, guys manda come on!?!" to save himself. Thiis feels like town Frisk caring more about town's success than his own life.

I really think Frisk is town here. Lets not do this. (This should not be read as me softclaiming an investigative role. It's just a hunch, I wont softclaim anything, whether I have a role or not.)

Agreed, Unvote
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 25, 2012, 06:18:35 pm
I repeat: I'm finding manda scummier by the minute. All of you voting for Frisk, here is her reaction to his imminent-looking lynch:

Hmmmmm... I'm really concerned by Frisk right now. He really does seem like he's leading the town. But if he were mafia, I'd think he'd try to avoid that... lots of WIFOM though.

As a side note, I have a paper due soon so I haven't/won't have a whole lot of time to be on here. That'll change  in a couple of days though.

I'm active because the rest of you are all lurking - and I'm really putting off work.

That's a good point. The "leading" may just be trying to get everyone to actually talk. Discussion definitely benefits the town, whether you are scum and leading or not.

That's funny - because I think she's too good to hedge so obviously!

Once again I think mafia Frisk would say "omg thats so correct, guys manda come on!?!" to save himself. Thiis feels like town Frisk caring more about town's success than his own life.

I really think Frisk is town here. Lets not do this. (This should not be read as me softclaiming an investigative role. It's just a hunch, I wont softclaim anything, whether I have a role or not.)

Uh, you realize that an investigator would have no way of nothing anything right now, so it would be impossible to softclaim that in an attempt to acquit Frisk, right?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 06:21:43 pm
Okay. even though I thought it would be better if he claims something for my argument.

So my argument is just that his claim theory cannot be from a town power role. If he were a power role, it should have been obvious to him that applying pressure on himself is not beneficial to the town.

My original plan was just that if he claimed PR I will suggest we lynch him. But now he is reading scummy to me as hell. So I as well spell it out why it is so. If you read through the link frisk provided it actually said that claiming VT is not that a bad thing. The only thing is that it narrows the range of PR for the mafia a bit. Given that he is unwilling to do so and I have an argument that he is no PR, he can only be mafia. (Oh, but if frisk still want to claim VT later I can accept that)

Also please turn back to look at #106. This is a lie. As we now know he is mafia at M6. It is convenient if he is also mafia in this game to tell this lie; but if he is town, I dunno, probably just wouldn't mention this (as he knew he has his chance to beat me at M6.)

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 06:26:32 pm
I will not be discussing m6 except: Bah!

I am lurking on phone btw.  Back at pc around 9 as per usual.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 25, 2012, 06:27:36 pm
I repeat: I'm finding manda scummier by the minute. All of you voting for Frisk, here is her reaction to his imminent-looking lynch:

Hmmmmm... I'm really concerned by Frisk right now. He really does seem like he's leading the town. But if he were mafia, I'd think he'd try to avoid that... lots of WIFOM though.

As a side note, I have a paper due soon so I haven't/won't have a whole lot of time to be on here. That'll change  in a couple of days though.

I'm active because the rest of you are all lurking - and I'm really putting off work.

That's a good point. The "leading" may just be trying to get everyone to actually talk. Discussion definitely benefits the town, whether you are scum and leading or not.

That's funny - because I think she's too good to hedge so obviously!

Once again I think mafia Frisk would say "omg thats so correct, guys manda come on!?!" to save himself. Thiis feels like town Frisk caring more about town's success than his own life.

I really think Frisk is town here. Lets not do this. (This should not be read as me softclaiming an investigative role. It's just a hunch, I wont softclaim anything, whether I have a role or not.)

Uh, you realize that an investigator would have no way of nothing anything right now, so it would be impossible to softclaim that in an attempt to acquit Frisk, right?
;)

.. no seriously, it was meant more as a general comment. Point stands, my personal read is, Frisk looks very townlike. I dont think timchen is necessarily mafia for insisting a Frisk lynch this bad (I mean, that would actually be rather weird for a mafia to do..), but I really disagree with his read.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 25, 2012, 06:33:55 pm
Just to clarify, I agree that standing calmly smoking his last cigarette while the train barrels down on him strikes me as Townish and not scummy. timchen's argument is keeping me on the fence, though.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 06:34:44 pm
Eevee, if you disagree, can you comment on the possibility of a PR speaking about this forcing-to-claim theory early? Also, can you comment on why a VT refuses to claim?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 25, 2012, 06:39:35 pm
Eevee, if you disagree, can you comment on the possibility of a PR speaking about this forcing-to-claim theory early? Also, can you comment on why a VT refuses to claim?
I'm not versed at all in mafia theory (should actually read some stuff, thanks for the link whoever it was).

I just think Frisk seems to be helping town to best of his abilities. Fwiw I think he has softclaimed VT already, I dont know why you are so insistent on him making a full claim? I mean this went perfectly if he is town and wont die today.. we got a town wagon to die without forcing anyone to claim anything. Now lets just find mafia and head to day2!

..oh btw I think manda is our best shot at finding mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 06:43:46 pm
He specifically stated that he didn't claim anything. Why did you find it as a soft claim?

Oh, one thing to think about: the people that are or have been on the wagon are: me, robz, PPS, galz. If he is not scum I bet there has to be a scum there before the votes get to L-1. So who do you think that would be?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 25, 2012, 06:47:56 pm
He specifically stated that he didn't claim anything. Why did you find it as a soft claim?

Oh, one thing to think about: the people that are or have been on the wagon are: me, robz, PPS, galz. If he is not scum I bet there has to be a scum there before the votes get to L-1. So who do you think that would be?

Its a soft claim because I would guess he would have claimed a power role at L-1 if he had one.. I guess its fine to spell this out given mafia is likely to figure it out too (and not mislynching Frisk certainly has value to town if he is indeed clean).

No idea, although I am leaning towards you being clean too. Galzr>Robz>PPS if you forced me to guess!

By the way, this Frisk wagon has been super helpful for town either way, we have gotten a ton of new information (namely guys who cant be mafia pairs, but thats pretty good too). If manda was mafia, do we think she would have lynched Frisk or not?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 25, 2012, 08:22:07 pm
Just to clarify, I agree that standing calmly smoking his last cigarette while the train barrels down on him strikes me as Townish and not scummy. timchen's argument is keeping me on the fence, though.

I agree with this. With only two mafia, they can't afford to have one of them killed D1. I don't like a lot of Frisk's behavior, but I agree that I don't think scum would be so chill at L-1.

Also, Eevee, you'll notice that I put Frisk towards the bottom of my list. I was in no way saying I wanted to lynch him. Just that he was acting suspicious to me.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 08:44:12 pm
Just to clarify, I agree that standing calmly smoking his last cigarette while the train barrels down on him strikes me as Townish and not scummy. timchen's argument is keeping me on the fence, though.

I agree with this. With only two mafia, they can't afford to have one of them killed D1. I don't like a lot of Frisk's behavior, but I agree that I don't think scum would be so chill at L-1.

Also, Eevee, you'll notice that I put Frisk towards the bottom of my list. I was in no way saying I wanted to lynch him. Just that he was acting suspicious to me.

What behavior are you referring to?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 25, 2012, 09:19:06 pm
Just to clarify, I agree that standing calmly smoking his last cigarette while the train barrels down on him strikes me as Townish and not scummy. timchen's argument is keeping me on the fence, though.

I agree with this. With only two mafia, they can't afford to have one of them killed D1. I don't like a lot of Frisk's behavior, but I agree that I don't think scum would be so chill at L-1.

Also, Eevee, you'll notice that I put Frisk towards the bottom of my list. I was in no way saying I wanted to lynch him. Just that he was acting suspicious to me.

What behavior are you referring to?

Like I said earlier, a lot of leading. But I'm willing to believe that that's just trying to get discussion going.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 09:20:33 pm
If you were scum, would you have hammered me?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 25, 2012, 09:22:33 pm
If you were scum, would you have hammered me?

I don't think so. The person who hammers gets way too much suspicion. Especially after I already put you towards the bottom of my list. But I probably would have voted for you.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 25, 2012, 09:54:35 pm
If you were scum, would you have hammered me?

I don't think so. The person who hammers gets way too much suspicion. Especially after I already put you towards the bottom of my list. But I probably would have voted for you.
A really good question and a town-looking answer.

Yeah, its me seeing townies everywhere again. I was even believing Robz's town JOAT-claim in mafia VI (no need to discuss that further, just showing how easily I trust people and how I see town everywhere I look)..

Me wanting a manda lynch less doesnt mean I want Frisk lynch any more. I'm glad PPS unvoted though, no risk of an instant hammer at least. Off to sleeps.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 10:03:44 pm
Just a reminder guys - its wednesday night - and we have to lynch by saturday.  I'm not super available after friday night - so we should start working on someone.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 25, 2012, 10:12:20 pm
Just a reminder guys - its wednesday night - and we have to lynch by saturday.  I'm not super available after friday night - so we should start working on someone.
Any ideas? I'm fine with almost anyone but Frisk at this point (well, maybe not PPS either), especially because neither Galz or Robz came to Frisk's rescue.

Man I really hope Frisk is clean because if he isnt, this is going to make me look like the biggest jackass there ever was.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 25, 2012, 10:22:13 pm
Just a reminder guys - its wednesday night - and we have to lynch by saturday.  I'm not super available after friday night - so we should start working on someone.
Any ideas? I'm fine with almost anyone but Frisk at this point (well, maybe not PPS either), especially because neither Galz or Robz came to Frisk's rescue.

Man I really hope Frisk is clean because if he isnt, this is going to make me look like the biggest jackass there ever was.

Frisk is the perfect person to lynch. It's a different Day 1 kill than we usually do, which will be nice, because we are always wrong. He has been making SUCH an effort to be good Mr. Townie. And we know we aren't killing a town power role. Really, he's the best lynch at this point.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 10:26:45 pm
Just a reminder guys - its wednesday night - and we have to lynch by saturday.  I'm not super available after friday night - so we should start working on someone.
Any ideas? I'm fine with almost anyone but Frisk at this point (well, maybe not PPS either), especially because neither Galz or Robz came to Frisk's rescue.

Man I really hope Frisk is clean because if he isnt, this is going to make me look like the biggest jackass there ever was.

Frisk is the perfect person to lynch. It's a different Day 1 kill than we usually do, which will be nice, because we are always wrong. He has been making SUCH an effort to be good Mr. Townie. And we know we aren't killing a town power role. Really, he's the best lynch at this point.

Lynching me won't break the streak of being wrong.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 10:27:41 pm
RobZ888 is the perfect person to lynch. It's a different Day 1 kill than we usually do, which will be nice, because we are always wrong. He has been making SUCH an effort to be a complete lurker. Really, he's the best lynch at this point.

FTFY
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 25, 2012, 10:41:15 pm
Frisk is the perfect person to lynch. It's a different Day 1 kill than we usually do, which will be nice, because we are always wrong. He has been making SUCH an effort to be good Mr. Townie. And we know we aren't killing a town power role. Really, he's the best lynch at this point.

Which is why you're voting Sharky, right?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 25, 2012, 10:41:50 pm
Frisk is the perfect person to lynch. It's a different Day 1 kill than we usually do, which will be nice, because we are always wrong. He has been making SUCH an effort to be good Mr. Townie. And we know we aren't killing a town power role. Really, he's the best lynch at this point.

Which is why you're voting Sharky, right?

NVM misread the last official count.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 25, 2012, 11:01:56 pm
Vote:Young Nick

Thought about it while brushing teeth, and most want either Nick or timchen. Better get the vote on before the sleeps so you can ponder.

Oh and I have a feeling pne mafia is a guy I trust atm and the other is someone I suspect.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 11:13:54 pm
I will be V/LA starting from Friday and throughout the weekend, so I would certainly like to have a lynch determined before that.

As I said, if frisk is town, it is highly inconceivable that his wagon contains no scum. I know I am not scum and up to now I had some good reasons to believe PPS, Galzria, and Robz. (If frisk flips town however, I am going for Robz next.) Seriously I think my arguments against him is better than any other arguments in this game (except probably Robz's policy lynch, but that is countered by frisk's lists.)

I also think it fits his play style that he won't be more eager to form other wagons at L-1 as that looks scummy to him. This is WIFOM though. But if you are unsure, here's a few points I'd like to highlight:
(1) he lied at #106, even though it is not about this game. As a townie I would imagine he would have tried to avoid lying. 
(2) he refuses to claim at L-1. I would say at this point the consensus of the town is that he is no PR. Up to now he has expressed no intention to even hint otherwise. What prevents him from admitting VT directly?
(3) From his tables and my analysis I got a pair of frisk/YN. It's compatible with how the day goes I would say. There is also a distant possibility that frisk/shark made a very bold play by ranking each other at 8th.

That being said, I would also vote for a robz lynch right now! The more I think the more I can imagine it is mafia robz who is just trying something bold and different.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 25, 2012, 11:16:15 pm
That being said, I would also vote for a robz lynch right now! The more I think the more I can imagine it is mafia robz who is just trying something bold and different.

Then join me.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 11:19:18 pm
Shark, why don't you join me? I'd like to hear everyone's opinion on those points I've posted against frisk.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 25, 2012, 11:25:06 pm
1) mafia wants to avoid lying too, even more so (townies are less cautious and careful with their posts)
2) as i said, i think frisk handled the l-1 exceptionally well. and i think mafia is much more likely to claim.
3) those tables can be used to prove just about any pair.

if frisk is mafia, he must be loving me defending him all the time but you asked everyone to comment..
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 11:34:57 pm
(1) put yourself at frisk's seat for a minute. You KNEW yourself and timchen are already opponents in M6. Why on earth would you want to tell a lie there as a VT, while there is entirely no need of mentioning it? Just for fun? As a mafia I can see him trying to appear casual and imprint a subtle townie feel there. It's pretty hard to foresee that he'll flip that early in M6 and there will be people going back and looking at this innocent non-game related small post.

(2) I think your reason is exactly why frisk didn't claim. In fact, that is the only reason I can think of. I mean, do you really think as a VT, will claiming VT look worse?

(3) Not true. Give me an example. (I agree not from my perspective there will be a lot of possibilities involving myself though. But given I know I am town there is hardly any subjective choice there. )
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 11:41:13 pm
I will be V/LA starting from Friday and throughout the weekend, so I would certainly like to have a lynch determined before that.

As I said, if frisk is town, it is highly inconceivable that his wagon contains no scum. I know I am not scum and up to now I had some good reasons to believe PPS, Galzria, and Robz. (If frisk flips town however, I am going for Robz next.) Seriously I think my arguments against him is better than any other arguments in this game (except probably Robz's policy lynch, but that is countered by frisk's lists.)

I also think it fits his play style that he won't be more eager to form other wagons at L-1 as that looks scummy to him. This is WIFOM though. But if you are unsure, here's a few points I'd like to highlight:
(1) he lied at #106, even though it is not about this game. As a townie I would imagine he would have tried to avoid lying. 
(2) he refuses to claim at L-1. I would say at this point the consensus of the town is that he is no PR. Up to now he has expressed no intention to even hint otherwise. What prevents him from admitting VT directly?
(3) From his tables and my analysis I got a pair of frisk/YN. It's compatible with how the day goes I would say. There is also a distant possibility that frisk/shark made a very bold play by ranking each other at 8th.

That being said, I would also vote for a robz lynch right now! The more I think the more I can imagine it is mafia robz who is just trying something bold and different.

#1: What was my lie in #106?  I reread it - and its perfectly truthful - regardless of what is going on elsewhere.  Note - you're getting very close to inappropriately discussing that other game.

#2: As for not claiming - I didn't.  I'm still alive, and scum haven't learned anything, but now we have some wagon analysis.  This is the best possible result.  Mafia has learned nothing - town has learned something.

#3: There are 10 possible pairings of people who ranked each other 3-6.  I am in 1 of those pairs with Young Nick.  You are in 4 of those pairs - with Eevee, manda, young_nick, and shark_bait.  I see no reason that Me + YN is any more plausible than any of your pairs.  Moreover - I don't think that the analysis is really worthwhile.  Seeing pairs at this point is way too aggressive.

Finally - you've admitted that you wanted to lynch me even if I claimed a PR.  Are you really going to unvote if I go and claim VT? 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 25, 2012, 11:42:03 pm
(1) put yourself at frisk's seat for a minute. You KNEW yourself and timchen are already opponents in M6.

You're over the line here.  We can't talk about that game.  In fact - it is not even confirmed that we are not on the same team in that game.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 25, 2012, 11:43:51 pm
Frisk is right timchen. Do NOT discuss that game.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 25, 2012, 11:52:45 pm
(1) put yourself at frisk's seat for a minute. You KNEW yourself and timchen are already opponents in M6.

You're over the line here.  We can't talk about that game.  In fact - it is not even confirmed that we are not on the same team in that game.
Yeah, you are right. Sorry about that.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 26, 2012, 12:05:29 am
#3: There are 10 possible pairings of people who ranked each other 3-6.  I am in 1 of those pairs with Young Nick.  You are in 4 of those pairs - with Eevee, manda, young_nick, and shark_bait.  I see no reason that Me + YN is any more plausible than any of your pairs.  Moreover - I don't think that the analysis is really worthwhile.  Seeing pairs at this point is way too aggressive.

Finally - you've admitted that you wanted to lynch me even if I claimed a PR.  Are you really going to unvote if I go and claim VT? 
#3: I agree yours is not more suspicious than mine. I also can agree it probably is not that useful. But you can understand from my perspective how this coincidence (that I am everywhere on the list) helps me single out a single entry!

And yes, if you had claimed earlier that you are VT I would have immediately unvoted. That was my original plan. But really, your refusal to claim makes me suspect you more. (Maybe it was just because I wanted you to claim so that you just did not want to claim?) If you claim now, I may unvote, but I don't see that happening.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 26, 2012, 12:06:46 am
Uh, Frisky, automatch just threw us together, please accept...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 26, 2012, 12:07:05 am
(1) Not going to discuss it.
(2) This is a good point, but even when he was at L-1 there wasn't a very imminent hammer, and if not claiming was a gamble on the part of a PR, not wanting to give mafia info, it payed off now that his wagon has died down. Also, I think mafia would be very likely to claim at L-1. On the other hand, not panicing makes him look like town, which would be very important if he IS mafia. Lots of WIFOM.
(3) So many possible pairings that I'm wary of putting much stock in them. The night should give us some information that will make those much more informative, but I don't think we can get a massive amount of information out of it right now.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 26, 2012, 12:07:37 am
frisk, please dont ruin this by claiming.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 26, 2012, 12:10:52 am
@manda: for (2), do you approve of my theory that as a PR frisk is rather unlikely to put forward his theory of pressing to claim earlier in the day?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 26, 2012, 12:28:10 am
I'm really going to slap myself in the face if I find out this CF is scum.  But having a really hard time seeing him as mafia with the great extent that he's been pro-town.  Part of it has to do with the way that he defended me.  Why would scum go out on a limb to support not lynching me.  Also the extent that he's tried to generate conversation seems very pro-town.  If he was mafia, he could have claimed a PR at L-1.  If no counter claim comes, then as a town we're in a pickle.  If someone does counter claim, we've just given the mafia more information to work with. 

And the reason that I don't %100 trust him.... what if he guessed we could come to those arguments and decided it was in his best scummy interests to be the best townie possible.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 26, 2012, 12:43:59 am
@manda: for (2), do you approve of my theory that as a PR frisk is rather unlikely to put forward his theory of pressing to claim earlier in the day?

I wouldn't say "he can only be mafia" for that reason. But, yes, I agree that pushing for claims at the beginning of D1 is, at the very least, a really bad idea, especially for someone who actually IS a PR. At the worst, yeah, it's scummy.

And the reason that I don't %100 trust him.... what if he guessed we could come to those arguments and decided it was in his best scummy interests to be the best townie possible.

And there you have the essence of the WIFOM.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 26, 2012, 01:20:21 am
I'm really going to slap myself in the face if I find out this CF is scum.  But having a really hard time seeing him as mafia with the great extent that he's been pro-town.  Part of it has to do with the way that he defended me.  Why would scum go out on a limb to support not lynching me.  Also the extent that he's tried to generate conversation seems very pro-town.  If he was mafia, he could have claimed a PR at L-1.  If no counter claim comes, then as a town we're in a pickle.  If someone does counter claim, we've just given the mafia more information to work with. 

And the reason that I don't %100 trust him.... what if he guessed we could come to those arguments and decided it was in his best scummy interests to be the best townie possible.

Yeah, but there's no reason for the mafia to be anything but pro-town here. What's pro-town? Relentless info gathering? Him not claiming a PR makes this a no brainer for me. For one thing, I wouldn't put it past a mafia player to not claim PR at this point, because the popular thing so far has been to definitely claim PR when you're in trouble. A skilled mafia might anticipate a collective move away from trusting thosr last minute claims--and also the last minute claims, when fake, can get you in trouble with the real PR. But whether he's lying or not, we know we aren't going to kill one of the real PR's by lynching him. Even better, if we lynch him without getting anybody else to L-1, we don't risk forcing any of our PRs to come out. This is all good.

Am I confident he's mafia? No. But look, on Day 1 with this setup we might as well pick randomly. Seems to me Frisk is a good deal better than random at this point, and better than the other options.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 26, 2012, 01:23:21 am
Robz why don't you comment on my points... nothing to add?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 26, 2012, 01:26:55 am
Robz why don't you comment on my points... nothing to add?

Well, I can't discuss MVI, and any speculation about pairs at this point is baseless.

As for his claim, if you get to L-1 and don't spell it out exactly, you're essentially claiming VT. SO he's either VT or a mafia who thought his best move was to not say anything about his role. I could see it either way. But I'm pretty sure we won't be mislynching a townie PR if we kill him, which is really quit eimportant.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 26, 2012, 01:45:38 am
Robz why don't you comment on my points... nothing to add?

Well, I can't discuss MVI, and any speculation about pairs at this point is baseless.

As for his claim, if you get to L-1 and don't spell it out exactly, you're essentially claiming VT. SO he's either VT or a mafia who thought his best move was to not say anything about his role. I could see it either way. But I'm pretty sure we won't be mislynching a townie PR if we kill him, which is really quit eimportant.

I would've sworn the same of TINAS though... But, (no offense Frisk!) CF is not TINAS. I agree pretty strongly with your assessment Robz.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 26, 2012, 01:47:48 am
It's interesting hearing you saying that no claim=VT claim. I do not agree that they are identical (meaning two things: first is that in rare occasions PR role may also choose not to claim and the second is that saying out loud VT is not the same as saying nothing) but I can see your perspective.

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 08:35:14 am
Galzria - do you agree with RobZ that straight up lynching a vanilla town is better than pushing another wagon?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 09:47:04 am
@Galz? 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 26, 2012, 10:08:33 am
@Galz?

Apologies - I can only read and respond to so many things at a time! ;D

It's a tough question. Here's how I break things down:

A) Mafia may not always claim PR. If the assumption is that they will, it's the perfect backdoor for them NOT to.

B) Still, Mafia IS more likely than not to claim.

--

• You didn't claim. I'm sorry, but I don't see you pulling off a TINAS (win or lose I will applaud you at game end if you did). You are either VT, or scum.

C) Is it better to lynch VT, or hunt scum? Well, doing this works under the assumption that A) is never true. Consider, if we keep hunting, and find another VT, they claim so, and we move on. If we find scum, they claim VT, and we move on. If we find a PR, they tell the truth, as town often does, and then we're in a bad spot.

Thing is, if we let you get away with this, as town or scum, we're opening the doors to scum of the future. So in that sense, yes, a CF lynch is logical, regardless of if you flip VT or Mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 10:11:00 am
Thing is, if we let you get away with this, as town or scum, we're opening the doors to scum of the future. So in that sense, yes, a CF lynch is logical, regardless of if you flip VT or Mafia.

You haven't actually answered the question here.

Galzria - do you agree with RobZ that straight up lynching a vanilla town is better than pushing another wagon?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 10:50:22 am
Vote: Galzria
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 26, 2012, 11:00:07 am
Yes, I did.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 26, 2012, 11:15:00 am
Vote Count 1-13

Captain_Frisk (3): timchen, Galzria, Robz888
shark_bait (2): manda2014, Young Nick
Robz888 (1): shark_bait
Young Nick (1): Eevee
Galzria (1): Captain_Frisk

Not voting {1}: pingpongsam

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 11:31:38 am
Yes, I did.

The argument that lynching vanilla town is better than scum hunting has the following logical conclusion:

It would be pro town to claim vanilla town right at the start of the day to ensure that no power roles need to claim.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 26, 2012, 11:45:07 am
There isn't much time. I imagine if we decide to lynch it would be one of the five who already have votes on them. Thus, we should start to eliminate some of those five as possible lynch targets until there are only two or three and carry on from there. With five targets, it's doubtful any single one will get five votes.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 26, 2012, 12:20:00 pm
Yes, I did.

The argument that lynching vanilla town is better than scum hunting has the following logical conclusion:

It would be pro town to claim vanilla town right at the start of the day to ensure that no power roles need to claim.

I don't see how that works.  Essentially PR's would have to claim VT, or else the mafia would know who they are.  Subsequently mafia would also need to claim VT in order to not be singled out and nothing would be gained other than 4 people lied about their role.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 26, 2012, 12:25:37 pm
Fine with Galzria now too.

Vote:Galzria

I'm going to be hasty with my votes now because got this party started too late and dont have enough time. Dont worry, wont be continuing this tomorrow.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 12:29:43 pm
Yes, I did.

The argument that lynching vanilla town is better than scum hunting has the following logical conclusion:

It would be pro town to claim vanilla town right at the start of the day to ensure that no power roles need to claim.

I don't see how that works.  Essentially PR's would have to claim VT, or else the mafia would know who they are.  Subsequently mafia would also need to claim VT in order to not be singled out and nothing would be gained other than 4 people lied about their role.

It doesn't work.  Regardless of my role - RobZ claims to be happy with lynching a vanilla town - because then a town PR won't need to claim.  If you follow that (that a VT lynch > potentially forcing a claim), then at the start of the game, one person who is VT should just come out and claim it - and get lynched - thus protecting anyone from needing to provide information.

This is boneheaded.  The fact that Galzria hasn't called him out on it is ridiculous.  Lynching me (the first wagon) instead of trying to get more information out of another wagon is explicitly anti town. 

The fact that Galzria is so far and away the least suspected person here - is making me suspicious - and I'm starting to think that this is the way to go.

Least suspected in M3 -> Yuma -> Scum
Least suspected among the non O voters in MIV -> DSell -> Scum
Least suspected in the tables analysis in MIV -> Me -> Scum
Least suspected in M5 -> Yuma -> Scum

Can't talk about M6.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 26, 2012, 12:38:35 pm
I am always up for a Galzria lynch, but not today. The right move is Frisk, people.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 12:57:43 pm
I am always up for a Galzria lynch, but not today.

Wouldn't this statement be a lie?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 26, 2012, 01:00:04 pm
@frisk: It is, well, interesting, to say the least, that you now try to push a Galz wagon. I find your over-generalization for Galzria's "I did" is not terribly convincing. I do also find it curious how Galz found your wagon best though.

@YN: I don't think finding one to lynch work that way. In your list you do not object a frisk lynch. Are you willing to vote him/hammer when the deadline draws near?

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 01:29:09 pm
Come on timchen - the wagon is moving, and its going for Galz.  Do you want to attach your bus?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 26, 2012, 01:30:34 pm
Yeah. If he is at L-1 I will hammer my partner.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 01:33:20 pm
Yeah. If he is at L-1 I will hammer my partner.

My new favorite player: timchen every body!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 26, 2012, 01:35:55 pm
I thought I am your old favorite?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 01:40:25 pm
Well - ehunt kindof took the lead with the pull it out of our behind win in M5
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 26, 2012, 01:42:53 pm
Ah. Misunderstand you. Thought you meant the favorite lynch target.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 03:53:05 pm
Anyone else interested in seeing what Galz has to say @ L-1?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 26, 2012, 03:54:54 pm
Vote Count 1-14

Captain_Frisk (3): timchen, Galzria, Robz888
shark_bait (2): manda2014, Young Nick
Robz888 (1): shark_bait
Galzria (2): Captain_Frisk, Eevee

Not voting {1}: pingpongsam

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 26, 2012, 04:04:14 pm
PPS, we have less than 50 hours left, you really should have your vote somewhere. We need to be really active now if we want to have a lynch today!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 04:06:14 pm
I think I prefer PPS's vote where it is now than where it was!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 26, 2012, 04:06:55 pm
Despite the fact that most people would be willing to lynch Robz, no one seems to want to get the wagon rolling.  Time to give some speed to a new one.

Unvote

Vote: Galz
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 04:09:28 pm
Despite the fact that most people would be willing to lynch Robz, no one seems to want to get the wagon rolling.  Time to give some speed to a new one.

Unvote

Vote: Galz

The problem with the RobZ wagon is that its too obvious.  Now maybe this is by design, but what I'm learning from multiple games seems to be that obvious scum is rarely actual scum.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 26, 2012, 04:17:53 pm
Ok, galz, maybe you can claim now. I may want to keep my word with frisk. I may hammer immediately when you reach L-1.

But I still think frisk is a better lynch target.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 26, 2012, 04:20:00 pm
Ok, galz, maybe you can claim now. I may want to keep my word with frisk. I may hammer immediately when you reach L-1.

But I still think frisk is a better lynch target.

I won't claim, period. If I'm a PR, you lynch me, end of story. CF is leading you like cattle looking for PR's for his scumteam to kill.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 26, 2012, 04:20:18 pm
Despite the fact that most people would be willing to lynch Robz, no one seems to want to get the wagon rolling.  Time to give some speed to a new one.

Unvote

Vote: Galz

The problem with the RobZ wagon is that its too obvious.  Now maybe this is by design, but what I'm learning from multiple games seems to be that obvious scum is rarely actual scum.
Why is it too obvious? I mean, the man went unsuspected right until now.. its exactly the opposite of obvious?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 26, 2012, 04:27:07 pm
Good. According to Robz this claim is as good as a VT claim. So frisk, you get the claim you want. Time to find a new target!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 04:28:18 pm
Despite the fact that most people would be willing to lynch Robz, no one seems to want to get the wagon rolling.  Time to give some speed to a new one.

Unvote

Vote: Galz

The problem with the RobZ wagon is that its too obvious.  Now maybe this is by design, but what I'm learning from multiple games seems to be that obvious scum is rarely actual scum.
Why is it too obvious? I mean, the man went unsuspected right until now.. its exactly the opposite of obvious?

If everyone wants to lynch him - then either mafia is bussing their teammate on day 1 - or both mafia would be happy with town dead.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 26, 2012, 04:38:19 pm
Frisk, what would you say about the difficulty of pushing your wagon? Do u figure it normal or do you find iyourself somewhat scummy?

On a separate note I find your IIoA beared a similar feeling with ehalc's in M6. Not much analysis after a great effort of putting things together? Also, maybe it was just some syntax that confused me, but your reply after I posted the middleground pairing analysis gave me an inconsistent feeling.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 26, 2012, 05:06:45 pm
Ok, galz, maybe you can claim now. I may want to keep my word with frisk. I may hammer immediately when you reach L-1.

But I still think frisk is a better lynch target.

I won't claim, period. If I'm a PR, you lynch me, end of story. CF is leading you like cattle looking for PR's for his scumteam to kill.

I agree that this is what Frisk is doing, and I am quite sure that he is the correct lynch at this point. Note: I am not quite sure that he is mafia, but I have a better feeling about him being mafia than anybody else. And the other reason to kill him--he is not a PR--is quite strong.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 05:11:54 pm
Frisk, what would you say about the difficulty of pushing your wagon? Do u figure it normal or do you find iyourself somewhat scummy?

On a separate note I find your IIoA beared a similar feeling with ehalc's in M6. Not much analysis after a great effort of putting things together? Also, maybe it was just some syntax that confused me, but your reply after I posted the middleground pairing analysis gave me an inconsistent feeling.

I'm not sure what your question is regarding the difficulty of the wagon.

Regading the IIoA - one of the reasons why I think the Pops / Tables analysis worked in MIV was that even though Pops got us started - it was actually someone else that did the analysis and ran with it.

I've been trying to rile up the town because this has been so boring (possibly because RobZ is a certified lurker) - but I'm truly not trying to drive it.  We have new players here, and I'd like to see everyone get involved.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 26, 2012, 05:20:29 pm
PPS, we have less than 50 hours left, you really should have your vote somewhere. We need to be really active now if we want to have a lynch today!

Vote: Eevee
 :P
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 26, 2012, 08:37:15 pm
Ok, was just funning there. Had a crazy busy day but made our deadline so I can rest easy for the weekend. Unvote

Cooked dinner (tamale pie) and washed dishes while I thought all of this over.

While my gut says stay on Sharky and keep a close eye on Frisk the analytical side says to Vote Captain_Frisk. I think he's been playing me like a drum.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 08:38:51 pm
WHen I flip town, you will see that you are mistaken.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 26, 2012, 08:58:33 pm
WHen I flip town, you will see that you are mistaken.

That's what the scum say every time, though. Riddle me this, Frisk, would you have me vote for you or Sharky if you had to choose?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 09:00:24 pm
Sharky - but only because I KNOW that I'm not scum.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 09:01:22 pm
So young_nick - it looks like its up to you.  Please do me the favor of having a discussion with me before you hammer.  I really think we should be going for Galz though.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 26, 2012, 09:03:14 pm
Galzria's only crime has been looking too towny, right?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 26, 2012, 09:15:05 pm
So young_nick - it looks like its up to you.  Please do me the favor of having a discussion with me before you hammer.  I really think we should be going for Galz though.

Why is it up to YN? I would say it's up to anyone not already voting for you, right?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 26, 2012, 09:48:55 pm
Yeah, there's also Eevee, S_B, and manda to consider. Not to mention the fact that there are three on Galzria. It's not like we are at C_F or NL here.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 26, 2012, 09:50:44 pm
I do agree with most that C_F has been doing a lot of "coaching" here, but it seems relatively pro-town. I'm not a huge fan of the recent Galzria wagon. It seems too hasty for my liking, as if people are just desperate to lynch someone, anyone. I personally am not inclined to vote for either right now. I am more suspicious of Eevee who apparently rarely has much of an opinion on anyone. Don't expect a surprise-vote from me.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 26, 2012, 09:54:15 pm
Are we going to have the first No Lynch in Forum Games history? History in the making, people.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 26, 2012, 10:00:10 pm
Are we going to have the first No Lynch in Forum Games history? History in the making, people.
Well, I guess thats better than lynching a VT like we usually do.

..and its not like nolynch cant still be avoided. I wont vote for Frisk to make that happen though.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 26, 2012, 10:04:56 pm
Are we going to have the first No Lynch in Forum Games history? History in the making, people.
Well, I guess thats better than lynching a VT like we usually do.

..and its not like nolynch cant still be avoided. I wont vote for Frisk to make that happen though.

I think you should vote for Frisk. And I'm the person who doesn't have such a problem with No Lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 10:06:12 pm
I could get behind a fuzzy lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 26, 2012, 10:09:39 pm
I'm not sure what your question is regarding the difficulty of the wagon.

I've been trying to rile up the town because this has been so boring (possibly because RobZ is a certified lurker) - but I'm truly not trying to drive it.  We have new players here, and I'd like to see everyone get involved.
I mean, in my eyes your wagon was there literally forever. I don't think I have parked my vote elsewhere. And PPS and Galzria are the two people who feel mostly like town for me in the game. So for me I surely find you scummier as time went by, because otherwise it won't be so hard to lynch you. How do you think about this assessment?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 10:14:19 pm
I'm not sure what your question is regarding the difficulty of the wagon.

I've been trying to rile up the town because this has been so boring (possibly because RobZ is a certified lurker) - but I'm truly not trying to drive it.  We have new players here, and I'd like to see everyone get involved.
I mean, in my eyes your wagon was there literally forever. I don't think I have parked my vote elsewhere. And PPS and Galzria are the two people who feel mostly like town for me in the game. So for me I surely find you scummier as time went by, because otherwise it won't be so hard to lynch you. How do you think about this assessment?

It is the same feeling I had when we lynched axxle1 in m4.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 26, 2012, 11:30:32 pm
Ok. Spent some time reviewing the eevee case.

In conclusion, I don't think we should consider lynching eevee at current stage. He played quite similar to M6 near the end of the first day. But more importantly, if he were mafia and frisk were not, there would be no reason at all for him to hold his opinion strongly toward frisk, while at the same time fire at various different people. And if they both are mafia, it doesn't hurt to lynch frisk first.

So, based on this, I would say if we want to lynch eevee we should always lynch frisk first. eevee cannot be mafia unless frisk is also mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 26, 2012, 11:38:08 pm
Ok. Spent some time reviewing the eevee case.

In conclusion, I don't think we should consider lynching eevee at current stage. He played quite similar to M6 near the end of the first day. But more importantly, if he were mafia and frisk were not, there would be no reason at all for him to hold his opinion strongly toward frisk, while at the same time fire at various different people. And if they both are mafia, it doesn't hurt to lynch frisk first.

So, based on this, I would say if we want to lynch eevee we should always lynch frisk first. eevee cannot be mafia unless frisk is also mafia.

I won't lynch Eevee for meta-game reasons. It's really, really mean to lynch or kill somebody first round in back-to-back games, unless I am practically certain they are mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 26, 2012, 11:39:38 pm
Ok. Spent some time reviewing the eevee case.

In conclusion, I don't think we should consider lynching eevee at current stage. He played quite similar to M6 near the end of the first day. But more importantly, if he were mafia and frisk were not, there would be no reason at all for him to hold his opinion strongly toward frisk, while at the same time fire at various different people. And if they both are mafia, it doesn't hurt to lynch frisk first.

So, based on this, I would say if we want to lynch eevee we should always lynch frisk first. eevee cannot be mafia unless frisk is also mafia.

I won't lynch Eevee for meta-game reasons. It's really, really mean to lynch or kill somebody first round in back-to-back games, unless I am practically certain they are mafia.

That is, while not Anti-Town, certainly not exclusively PRO town either. But... I can respect your reasons.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 26, 2012, 11:43:40 pm
Ok. Spent some time reviewing the eevee case.

In conclusion, I don't think we should consider lynching eevee at current stage. He played quite similar to M6 near the end of the first day. But more importantly, if he were mafia and frisk were not, there would be no reason at all for him to hold his opinion strongly toward frisk, while at the same time fire at various different people. And if they both are mafia, it doesn't hurt to lynch frisk first.

So, based on this, I would say if we want to lynch eevee we should always lynch frisk first. eevee cannot be mafia unless frisk is also mafia.

I resent this line of thinking. If you think I'm the best lynch, forget about meta, cast your vote and have me defend myself fair and square. If I'm town, its my own bad play that brought it upon me.

..and I'm in multiple games anyways. And I dont need to be pitied.

Its not fair to other players or town to treat me different because I screwed up in an earlier game and got myself killed.

I won't lynch Eevee for meta-game reasons. It's really, really mean to lynch or kill somebody first round in back-to-back games, unless I am practically certain they are mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 26, 2012, 11:44:56 pm
Ok. Spent some time reviewing the eevee case.

In conclusion, I don't think we should consider lynching eevee at current stage. He played quite similar to M6 near the end of the first day. But more importantly, if he were mafia and frisk were not, there would be no reason at all for him to hold his opinion strongly toward frisk, while at the same time fire at various different people. And if they both are mafia, it doesn't hurt to lynch frisk first.

So, based on this, I would say if we want to lynch eevee we should always lynch frisk first. eevee cannot be mafia unless frisk is also mafia.

I resent this line of thinking. If you think I'm the best lynch, forget about meta, cast your vote and have me defend myself fair and square. If I'm town, its my own bad play that brought it upon me.

..and I'm in multiple games anyways. And I dont need to be pitied.

Its not fair to other players or town to treat me different because I screwed up in an earlier game and got myself killed.

I won't lynch Eevee for meta-game reasons. It's really, really mean to lynch or kill somebody first round in back-to-back games, unless I am practically certain they are mafia.

stupid ipad, you can probably figure out who said what. or someone can fix the quotes for me.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 26, 2012, 11:45:32 pm
+1 to Eevee
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 26, 2012, 11:53:37 pm
Yeah, I am going to go ahead and call robz's argument plain stupid. Who cares what happened in a different game of Mafia? What happened there does not earn him pity points here. Sure, you can glean from other games his style of play, but to use that as reason to not vote for him? Preposterous at best. I, for one, have not read that game and will not be using his actions in it to form my opinion of him here in MVII.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 26, 2012, 11:56:32 pm
Yeah, I am going to go ahead and call robz's argument plain stupid. Who cares what happened in a different game of Mafia? What happened there does not earn him pity points here. Sure, you can glean from other games his style of play, but to use that as reason to not vote for him? Preposterous at best. I, for one, have not read that game and will not be using his actions in it to form my opinion of him here in MVII.

It's not pity points. It's just that the Day 1 lynch has never resulted in killing a mafia anyway. So with the knowledge that we will probably kill a member of the town, I prefer if that town member is not Eevee.

If I really thought Eevee were mafia here I would vote for him. I simply think he is no more or less likely mafia than most other people.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 27, 2012, 12:04:51 am
I don't like the direction the discussion is going into. I feel my argument about eevee is sound. If people buy that they just shouldn't consider eevee lynch for now. No need to think about metagame.

@Robz: I dislike your tone about chances to lynch mafia d1. Sure it is unlikely (2/9 and 1 more voter won't vote for him), but let's say if we are just blind and pick one random target and stick to it, there is 2/9 chance to succeed. Careful reasoning should result in a higher success rate.


Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 27, 2012, 12:12:29 am

@Robz: I dislike your tone about chances to lynch mafia d1. Sure it is unlikely (2/9 and 1 more voter won't vote for him), but let's say if we are just blind and pick one random target and stick to it, there is 2/9 chance to succeed. Careful reasoning should result in a higher success rate.
A mafia member will lie to save himself from the lynch though. I explained this earlier in this very thrrad I recall. We should consider forcing a mafia to lie at L-1 and catching him at day2 a success I think. Actually lynching mafia seems awfully hard. But we can out one even if we cant get rid of him/her today. Nolynch would be ok/less bad if we got useful wagons to analyze anyways but I dont know if that would work without a flip.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 27, 2012, 12:27:52 am
Vote Count 1-15

Captain_Frisk (4): timchen, Galzria, Robz888, pingpongsam
shark_bait (2): manda2014, Young Nick
Galzria (3): Captain_Frisk, Eevee, shark_bait

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 27, 2012, 12:35:12 am
I would like to hear what manda is thinking at this point in time. It seems like our votes on S_B are all but useless at this point. Where would she be likely to place a meaningful vote if she is willing to at all? I just don't think I am ready to lynch C_F.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 27, 2012, 12:38:44 am

@Robz: I dislike your tone about chances to lynch mafia d1. Sure it is unlikely (2/9 and 1 more voter won't vote for him), but let's say if we are just blind and pick one random target and stick to it, there is 2/9 chance to succeed. Careful reasoning should result in a higher success rate.
A mafia member will lie to save himself from the lynch though. I explained this earlier in this very thrrad I recall. We should consider forcing a mafia to lie at L-1 and catching him at day2 a success I think. Actually lynching mafia seems awfully hard. But we can out one even if we cant get rid of him/her today. Nolynch would be ok/less bad if we got useful wagons to analyze anyways but I dont know if that would work without a flip.

A HIGHER success rate, sure. But higher does not equal high. And there's so much WIFOM and so little actual information D1 that reasoning can only help you so much. Does that mean we should random-lynch? Absolutely not. But we should still be honest with ourselves about the odds.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 27, 2012, 12:46:53 am

@Robz: I dislike your tone about chances to lynch mafia d1. Sure it is unlikely (2/9 and 1 more voter won't vote for him), but let's say if we are just blind and pick one random target and stick to it, there is 2/9 chance to succeed. Careful reasoning should result in a higher success rate.
A mafia member will lie to save himself from the lynch though. I explained this earlier in this very thrrad I recall. We should consider forcing a mafia to lie at L-1 and catching him at day2 a success I think. Actually lynching mafia seems awfully hard. But we can out one even if we cant get rid of him/her today. Nolynch would be ok/less bad if we got useful wagons to analyze anyways but I dont know if that would work without a flip.

A HIGHER success rate, sure. But higher does not equal high. And there's so much WIFOM and so little actual information D1 that reasoning can only help you so much. Does that mean we should random-lynch? Absolutely not. But we should still be honest with ourselves about the odds.

So then, what are you proposing. No one said there is a good chance of lynching mafia d1. We just are trying to maximize the chances of that happening. I'm being honest and say there is not a good chance that we lynch mafia, but that we probably ought to lynch for information-gathering reasons. Otherwise, we are probably going to be at square one minus someone come d2.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 27, 2012, 12:50:37 am
@eevee: it is also possible that we lynch the claimed PR anyway. Usually not, but like I said earlier, if frisk claimed PR I am still willing to lynch him in this game.

@manda: I just mean, ok, we can accept that we might not succeed in lynching mafia day one. It is not the most probable result anyway. However, I don't think we should entirely disregard the possibility that we might hit scum. And most important of all, our goal should still be trying to hit scum, instead of trying to lynch VT and get information.

@manda2: how do you feel about hammering frisk if necessarily in the next two days?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 27, 2012, 12:51:30 am
I would like to hear what manda is thinking at this point in time. It seems like our votes on S_B are all but useless at this point. Where would she be likely to place a meaningful vote if she is willing to at all? I just don't think I am ready to lynch C_F.

Sorry I've been so absent today. Like I said earlier, I've got RL stuff that really has to be priority right now, but that'll change soon.

Anyway, I agree with you that our votes on S_B aren't doing much of anything right now. I'm considering just unvoting. I'm not horribly opposed to a Frisk lynch, because however he flips we'll get a lot of information. He's said so much in this game that, if he flips town, we'll have a lot of analysis that we know we can look at as honest. If he flips scum, well, that's obviously good for us. Obviously it'd be detrimental if he turns out to be a PR, but I seriously doubt that, if he is PR, he wouldn't claim at L-1. That's juuuuuuust too risky. That being said, although I don't hate the idea of lynching Frisk D1, I'm not so keen on it that I'd be willing to throw the hammer.

I really don't like the Galzira wagon. Maybe it's just my gut, but I am only getting a town read from him. Obviously that may change later in the game, but I don't want to lynch him D1.

The suspicion heaping up on Eevee is interesting. It seems to me like he apologizes for something every other post. (yes, I realize I apologized at the beginning of this post. XD) Is that necessaaaaaarily scummy behavior? No, but it doesn't help town either. It just distracts from any actual scumhunting we could be doing, and I really don't like it.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 27, 2012, 12:52:24 am
@eevee: it is also possible that we lynch the claimed PR anyway. Usually not, but like I said earlier, if frisk claimed PR I am still willing to lynch him in this game.

@manda: I just mean, ok, we can accept that we might not succeed in lynching mafia day one. It is not the most probable result anyway. However, I don't think we should entirely disregard the possibility that we might hit scum. And most important of all, our goal should still be trying to hit scum, instead of trying to lynch VT and get information.

@manda2: how do you feel about hammering frisk if necessarily in the next two days?

If it comes down to it and it's lynch Frisk or stick with a no-lynch and someone needs to throw the hammer, I'm not opposed to doing it. But I'm not ready to do that now.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 27, 2012, 12:55:50 am
Okay. I will just park my vote there as I might not get the time to be online during the weekends.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 27, 2012, 12:56:42 am
I won't claim, period. If I'm a PR, you lynch me, end of story. CF is leading you like cattle looking for PR's for his scumteam to kill.

Something about this post keeps me coming back to it. He is (naturally) defensive, but the adamant refusal to claim just strikes me as too uncompromising. It's almost like he's daring us to lynch him.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 27, 2012, 12:57:32 am
Oh shoot I just got ninja'ed by like three posts that I skipped so I should read those before y'all consider my last post.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 27, 2012, 12:58:09 am
Galzria wagon is not picking up it seems.
Vote: Robz888
I dont want this to be Frisk or nolynch when I wake up. I dont like Robz's recent behaviour.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 27, 2012, 12:59:19 am
@Eevee: Just when I was considering hopping on the wagon...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 27, 2012, 01:00:30 am
@Eevee: Just when I was considering hopping on the wagon...
I can still get back on, although I'm maybe liking Robz a tad more now.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 27, 2012, 01:01:06 am
You are super-pressed to get a non-C_F lynch. That's some serious wagon-hunting. I guess at this point, why would settling for NL be so bad? Mafia night-kills someone we now know is town and can still glean a ton of information. Why must we kill two? The more I think about it, the less I think that a lynch is a must.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 27, 2012, 01:04:13 am
I won't claim, period. If I'm a PR, you lynch me, end of story. CF is leading you like cattle looking for PR's for his scumteam to kill.

Something about this post keeps me coming back to it. He is (naturally) defensive, but the adamant refusal to claim just strikes me as too uncompromising. It's almost like he's daring us to lynch him.

Read it in context with this post:


 
@Galz?

Apologies - I can only read and respond to so many things at a time! ;D

It's a tough question. Here's how I break things down:

A) Mafia may not always claim PR. If the assumption is that they will, it's the perfect backdoor for them NOT to.

B) Still, Mafia IS more likely than not to claim.

--

• You didn't claim. I'm sorry, but I don't see you pulling off a TINAS (win or lose I will applaud you at game end if you did). You are either VT, or scum.

C) Is it better to lynch VT, or hunt scum? Well, doing this works under the assumption that A) is never true. Consider, if we keep hunting, and find another VT, they claim so, and we move on. If we find scum, they claim VT, and we move on. If we find a PR, they tell the truth, as town often does, and then we're in a bad spot.

Thing is, if we let you get away with this, as town or scum, we're opening the doors to scum of the future. So in that sense, yes, a CF lynch is logical, regardless of if you flip VT or Mafia.

Essentially, I will not allow to play the "wagon 'till they claim!" Game. It's a purely anti-town move, because PR's feel forced to claim at L-1, while scum just claim VT so that the wagon gets dropped.

I will not let him out PR's in that fashion, and I will not claim. Period.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 27, 2012, 01:08:23 am
You are super-pressed to get a non-C_F lynch. That's some serious wagon-hunting. I guess at this point, why would settling for NL be so bad? Mafia night-kills someone we now know is town and can still glean a ton of information. Why must we kill two? The more I think about it, the less I think that a lynch is a must.
The important thing about any day 1 lynch (for town) is the info we get from analyzing the wagon. I dont know if thats enough to justify killing a VT seemingly every time (so probably quite high % of the time in reality too). Yeah, maybe nolynch isnt so bad here. Would be pretty cool to know if Frisk is town btw..
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 27, 2012, 01:18:15 am
@Galzria: Here's the thing with your logic: You assume that PR's feel obligated to legit-claim at L-1. You don't see C_F pulling of a TINAS*. However, the correct play for a PR would be to claim VT given the logic provided. In fact, when you encourage all to not claim at all, you are advocating for the same system as C_F is except that instead of no claim, all claim VT. So really, I don't think that his system is that much different than yours. I'm not saying I like either, but I do feel like it's silly to have you argue over that when in reality you two are thinking more alike than is apparent at first.

*For those who didn't follow TINAS's actions in MI or MII (I don't remember which), he was the Town Cop who got to L-1 and was fine dying but eventually did not get lynched and won them the game, so to TINAS is to not claim your PR when at L-1.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 27, 2012, 01:19:27 am
You are super-pressed to get a non-C_F lynch. That's some serious wagon-hunting. I guess at this point, why would settling for NL be so bad? Mafia night-kills someone we now know is town and can still glean a ton of information. Why must we kill two? The more I think about it, the less I think that a lynch is a must.
The important thing about any day 1 lynch (for town) is the info we get from analyzing the wagon. I dont know if thats enough to justify killing a VT seemingly every time (so probably quite high % of the time in reality too). Yeah, maybe nolynch isnt so bad here. Would be pretty cool to know if Frisk is town btw..

I see what you are saying. What I am saying is that if the night-kill is someone who had a wagon on them, then we still can gain that same information. However, that's a big if, and I doubt the Mafia would be so kind to us.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 27, 2012, 01:21:33 am
Yeah, no. Mafia has zero incentive to help town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 27, 2012, 01:22:53 am
@Galzria: Here's the thing with your logic: You assume that PR's feel obligated to legit-claim at L-1. You don't see C_F pulling of a TINAS*. However, the correct play for a PR would be to claim VT given the logic provided. In fact, when you encourage all to not claim at all, you are advocating for the same system as C_F is except that instead of no claim, all claim VT. So really, I don't think that his system is that much different than yours. I'm not saying I like either, but I do feel like it's silly to have you argue over that when in reality you two are thinking more alike than is apparent at first.

*For those who didn't follow TINAS's actions in MI or MII (I don't remember which), he was the Town Cop who got to L-1 and was fine dying but eventually did not get lynched and won them the game, so to TINAS is to not claim your PR when at L-1.

It's different because he has essentially claimed VT, and gotten people to move on over it. If he's not lynched, Mafia need never claim again. I agree the system is stupid. Mafia need to know that not claiming, or claiming VT gets you lynched - because it will becoming increasingly more difficult to verify these claims, whereas forcing scum to survive on PR claims gives us something to latch onto that can often be verified.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 27, 2012, 01:25:35 am
@Galzria: Here's the thing with your logic: You assume that PR's feel obligated to legit-claim at L-1. You don't see C_F pulling of a TINAS*. However, the correct play for a PR would be to claim VT given the logic provided. In fact, when you encourage all to not claim at all, you are advocating for the same system as C_F is except that instead of no claim, all claim VT. So really, I don't think that his system is that much different than yours. I'm not saying I like either, but I do feel like it's silly to have you argue over that when in reality you two are thinking more alike than is apparent at first.

*For those who didn't follow TINAS's actions in MI or MII (I don't remember which), he was the Town Cop who got to L-1 and was fine dying but eventually did not get lynched and won them the game, so to TINAS is to not claim your PR when at L-1.

It's different because he has essentially claimed VT, and gotten people to move on over it. If he's not lynched, Mafia need never claim again. I agree the system is stupid. Mafia need to know that not claiming, or claiming VT gets you lynched - because it will becoming increasingly more difficult to verify these claims, whereas forcing scum to survive on PR claims gives us something to latch onto that can often be verified.

Well, "gotten people to move on over it" isn't completely accurate, but you understand my meaning - especially when the original post was written in response to Timchen asking for a L-1 claim so he could possibly hammer at a later time.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 27, 2012, 01:27:28 am
@Eevee: Well, if C_F is town, Mafia might find it in their best interest to get him got because he spurs so much conversation. Sometimes he leads the town, yes, but he also has contributed lots to town. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's certainly feasible.

@Galzria: So basically you are fine with both non-claims and VT-claims getting lynched? So your system IS the same, in that case. You are refusing to claim. By that logic, should we not hesitate to lynch you?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 27, 2012, 01:33:26 am
@Eevee: Well, if C_F is town, Mafia might find it in their best interest to get him got because he spurs so much conversation. Sometimes he leads the town, yes, but he also has contributed lots to town. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's certainly feasible.

@Galzria: So basically you are fine with both non-claims and VT-claims getting lynched? So your system IS the same, in that case. You are refusing to claim. By that logic, should we not hesitate to lynch you?

Of course you should. I have not claimed "not-PR". Frisk has. Which would you rather lynch?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 27, 2012, 01:34:23 am
Of course you should hesitate*
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on July 27, 2012, 01:38:48 am
Yeah, no. Mafia has zero incentive to help town.

Mafia has zero incentive to help town? If they don't at least do some stuff to "help" the town (read: look really helpful), they're gonna get killed. Anyone obviously not helping the town is going to end up dead.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 27, 2012, 01:45:50 am
I think what Eevee and I were getting at was that the Mafia have no incentive to help the town when performing their night-kill.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 27, 2012, 05:08:10 am
Okay, I might not be able to post again before the dead line, but here's what I'd like to say. It is terribly unlikely that frisk and the wagon on him contains two scum: either two scum jumped on a townie wagon and stayed for a long time, or a scum bus his partner early. So I have to conclude that we have at least one scum in the remaining four:
manda, YN, SB, and eevee.

Now, as far as I can see, among the 4 manda expressed willingness to vote for frisk but rather wait, while the other three never expressed any willingness to join the wagon. Among the three I would say YN is the most suspicious, as he ranked frisk at #3 on his list, while the other two ranked him at #8. But okay, maybe time has passed and people changed their mind.

But the important point here is for YN/SB/eevee, what I said earlier about eevee holds, I think. That is, if they are scum and frisk is not, at this point they have almost no incentive at all to hold their vote. One can always say WIFOM, but here the asymmetry is huge and they practically will take very little blame for hammering as Robz, Galzria, and I would probably take most of the responsibility of lynching town frisk. So the bottom line, if we think one of them is scum, I would say frisk should also be scum. And if frisk is not scum, according to this, we might want to heavily suspect manda (and one of us between me, Galz, and Robz.)

Bottomline: there is a good chance of hitting mafia by lynching frisk. And if indeed frisk is mafia, we can try to find the other mafia among manda/eevee/SB/YN. If frisk is not mafia, I think it clears eevee/SB/YN. And we have to suspect manda and me/galz/robz/PPS. Either way, lynching him gives us great information and at this point I can honestly not see the townie among eevee/SB/YN not to agree on lynching him, as he either flips scum or clears you guys.

 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 27, 2012, 05:20:56 am
I should also say if frisk flips town, then there is a distinct possibility of the scum team Robz-Galz. But I would only worry about this after seeing his flip.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 27, 2012, 06:15:52 am
Okay, I might not be able to post again before the dead line, but here's what I'd like to say. It is terribly unlikely that frisk and the wagon on him contains two scum: either two scum jumped on a townie wagon and stayed for a long time, or a scum bus his partner early. So I have to conclude that we have at least one scum in the remaining four:
manda, YN, SB, and eevee.

Now, as far as I can see, among the 4 manda expressed willingness to vote for frisk but rather wait, while the other three never expressed any willingness to join the wagon. Among the three I would say YN is the most suspicious, as he ranked frisk at #3 on his list, while the other two ranked him at #8. But okay, maybe time has passed and people changed their mind.

But the important point here is for YN/SB/eevee, what I said earlier about eevee holds, I think. That is, if they are scum and frisk is not, at this point they have almost no incentive at all to hold their vote. One can always say WIFOM, but here the asymmetry is huge and they practically will take very little blame for hammering as Robz, Galzria, and I would probably take most of the responsibility of lynching town frisk. So the bottom line, if we think one of them is scum, I would say frisk should also be scum. And if frisk is not scum, according to this, we might want to heavily suspect manda (and one of us between me, Galz, and Robz.)

Bottomline: there is a good chance of hitting mafia by lynching frisk. And if indeed frisk is mafia, we can try to find the other mafia among manda/eevee/SB/YN. If frisk is not mafia, I think it clears eevee/SB/YN. And we have to suspect manda and me/galz/robz/PPS. Either way, lynching him gives us great information and at this point I can honestly not see the townie among eevee/SB/YN not to agree on lynching him, as he either flips scum or clears you guys.

This is more or less why I am voting Frisk. As a a game progresses I am more apt to be able to spell out my reasoning like this. To put the whole thing in a nutshell, I think the most information to be gained is from a Frisk lynch regardless of his alignment. That I have strong suspicions of him being Mafia just makes it all the more easier to make the decision.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 27, 2012, 07:23:18 am
Vote Count 1-16

Captain_Frisk (4): timchen, Galzria, Robz888, pingpongsam
shark_bait (2): manda2014, Young Nick
Galzria (2): Captain_Frisk, shark_bait
Robz888 (1): Eevee

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Saturday, July 28, at 7:30 p.m. forum time (EDT)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 27, 2012, 08:56:29 am
@Eevee: Well, if C_F is town, Mafia might find it in their best interest to get him got because he spurs so much conversation. Sometimes he leads the town, yes, but he also has contributed lots to town. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's certainly feasible.

@Galzria: So basically you are fine with both non-claims and VT-claims getting lynched? So your system IS the same, in that case. You are refusing to claim. By that logic, should we not hesitate to lynch you?

Of course you should. I have not claimed "not-PR". Frisk has. Which would you rather lynch?

I have?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 27, 2012, 11:47:57 am
Bump?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 27, 2012, 01:34:48 pm
Bump.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 27, 2012, 02:12:49 pm
Oh - bummer - YN has gone offline.  YN - are you really feeling like shark_bait is mafia, or is this a more of a desire to lynch scummy looking behavior?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 27, 2012, 02:39:55 pm
I'd need to re-read some of the earlier stuff and see. I don't have time now for that, unfortunately. However, I do know that my vote on him is pointless right now.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 27, 2012, 03:12:49 pm
All right folks - I have theory coming over for some real life gaming this weekend.  I have a feeling that the mafia is going to use the deadline as an excuse to lynch me - any chance we can get some discussion going that results in discussion of Galz / eeVee?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 27, 2012, 03:53:42 pm
As I already asked you, the only crime Galz has committed is looking Towny, riiiight??? That's your cue to show me how he might be a mafia in town clothing.

I admit it is suspicious that he remains so amicably Towny but that in and of itself is a terrible basis for a lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 27, 2012, 04:01:58 pm
As I already asked you, the only crime Galz has committed is looking Towny, riiiight??? That's your cue to show me how he might be a mafia in town clothing.

I admit it is suspicious that he remains so amicably Towny but that in and of itself is a terrible basis for a lynch.

Do you truly expect mafia to give themselves away?  Have we ever lynched scum for being scummy?  I think O in MIV was the closest, and he is ALWAYS scummy.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 27, 2012, 04:03:57 pm
As I already asked you, the only crime Galz has committed is looking Towny, riiiight??? That's your cue to show me how he might be a mafia in town clothing.

I admit it is suspicious that he remains so amicably Towny but that in and of itself is a terrible basis for a lynch.

Do you truly expect mafia to give themselves away?  Have we ever lynched scum for being scummy?  I think O in MIV was the closest, and he is ALWAYS scummy.

O in MIV was the closest, but for my part, it was because of his voting pattern, not his behavior, that I was drawn to him in the first place. Then his reaction was very scummy.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 27, 2012, 05:06:43 pm
So we've got a day left to lynch.  I have no desire to lynch CF.  My case against Robz was his lurkiness which he has stopped lately.  So I'm a little unsure about where I am with him.  The fact that Galz has so little suspicion is enough to make me consider lynching him.

I know I said something like this pages ago.  But part of me is suspicious that WIFOM could have been used by the mafia when I so obviously looked like scum.  It gave the mafia a really easy target to lock onto without their own actions being considered scummy.  For that reason, PPS, manda and YN are still on my suspicious list.  As for timchen/eevee, I can't say I have much of a read on them right now.  I'll want to go back and read through this stuff again sometime tonight.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 27, 2012, 05:10:40 pm
All right guys - In about an hour I'm going to go into phone lurk mode.  I'll do my best to monitor the situation - but in the event that scum hammers me - I will leave you with my parting thoughts in advance.

I suspect that 1 scum is currently voting for me, and 1 scum is not.  This makes things nice and easy (1/4 scum on each side - same odds as 2 scum in eight)

Of the folks on my wagon, I suspect RobZ and Galz the most.  First - Galz is not posting as much as he does in other games.  For example, I asked a question @ 9am this morning.  No Galzria post - but he's been all over the forums.

RobZ i suspect as well - but the amount of suspicion on him is just far too ripe for me.

timchen I am starting to view as crazy rather than crafty.

PPS is just straight crazy.  I hope that this experience will teach him that being confident in this game is totally wrongheaded.

Off my wagon, I suspect Manda and eeVee the most.  I suspect that they will hammer me near the deadline with the excuse that its hammer time.  However, since lynch > no lynch - I think they are waiting and hoping that one of the townies gets it... thus only leaving 1 scum on the wagon who voted for me (1/5 = 20%)  Then they can night kill one of those people, and and they are at 1/4 (25%) and 1/3 (33%), although this isn't a guarantee.  They may prefer to kill someone off the wagon.

If scum is forced to lynch me, then I suspect they absolutely kill someone off the wagon to leave maximum room for suspicion of those who false lynched me.

I view young nick with some suspicion (lurker), and I think that shark_bait is obv town.

I promise that lynching me will not accomplish the goal of the first mafia game to lynch scum on day 1.  I think that Galz has a much better chance, and besides: he's in too many other games anyway.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 27, 2012, 05:21:31 pm
I'm willing to lynch Galz on the condition that we lynch Frisk if Galz flips town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 27, 2012, 05:24:23 pm
I'm willing to lynch Galz on the condition that we lynch Frisk if Galz flips town.

Do you realize how scummy that sounds?  If a mafia member says that, they guarantee putting town on the brink of losing with forcing 2 unsuccessful lynches.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 27, 2012, 05:25:34 pm
Although I guess I really shouldn't talk with how scummy some of the stuff I've said has sounded.  I just wanted to point out how I read it.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 27, 2012, 05:29:32 pm
The thing is I would never propose the opposite scenario because I'm relatively certain that Galzria is Town. I'm not as certain that Frisk is Mafia but practically everything he says confirms that notion more and more. If we can lynch scum D2 then I think it's a fair trade. I'd rather hit scum D1 and I think a Frisk lynch is the brisk lynch to get that job done.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 27, 2012, 05:37:04 pm
All right guys - In about an hour I'm going to go into phone lurk mode.  I'll do my best to monitor the situation - but in the event that scum hammers me - I will leave you with my parting thoughts in advance.

I suspect that 1 scum is currently voting for me, and 1 scum is not.  This makes things nice and easy (1/4 scum on each side - same odds as 2 scum in eight)

Of the folks on my wagon, I suspect RobZ and Galz the most.  First - Galz is not posting as much as he does in other games.  For example, I asked a question @ 9am this morning.  No Galzria post - but he's been all over the forums.

First off, this is a flat out lie. Here is a link to my profile and post history today:

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=profile;area=showposts;u=959

I have made a total of 4 posts today (well, since I woke up - not counting ~1:00am stuff), and only ONE of those was after CF asked me his question - That post, fwiw, was all of 3 words long. This is more spin from scum trying to paint a picture that gets somebody other than himself lynched.

RobZ i suspect as well - but the amount of suspicion on him is just far too ripe for me.

timchen I am starting to view as crazy rather than crafty.

PPS is just straight crazy.  I hope that this experience will teach him that being confident in this game is totally wrongheaded.

Off my wagon, I suspect Manda and eeVee the most.  I suspect that they will hammer me near the deadline with the excuse that its hammer time.  However, since lynch > no lynch - I think they are waiting and hoping that one of the townies gets it... thus only leaving 1 scum on the wagon who voted for me (1/5 = 20%)  Then they can night kill one of those people, and and they are at 1/4 (25%) and 1/3 (33%), although this isn't a guarantee.  They may prefer to kill someone off the wagon.

If scum is forced to lynch me, then I suspect they absolutely kill someone off the wagon to leave maximum room for suspicion of those who false lynched me.

I view young nick with some suspicion (lurker), and I think that shark_bait is obv town.

I promise that lynching me will not accomplish the goal of the first mafia game to lynch scum on day 1.  I think that Galz has a much better chance, and besides: he's in too many other games anyway.

First off, what's the value of a promise without a flip to back it up? I promise you that if you lynch me, I'll flip Day/Night Vig with bullet-proof immunity and a two-shot investigative ability. Yeah.

Second, the number of games that I am in has absolutely no bearing on my role here, and the idea that anybody would use this as an excuse to force a lynch through is ridiculous. It's a scum justification trying to get townies on-board.

---

To answer your question: CF has done nothing but role-fish all game. He stated early on that he desired to keep pushing wagons until the person being pushed was forced to claim. This is extremely anti-town. Furthermore, if that was indeed the case, it isn't something likely said by a PR, now is it? CF's wagon went up to L-1 and he did not claim. This means that he is either a VT, or Scum. At this point, I would MUCH rather role those dice, than keep fishing until we DO hit a power role, allowing the Mafia a huge advantage going forward.

If he IS a Vanilla Townie, that is the best possible non-mafia-lynch we could get. If he is Scum, we've set the standard that scum trying to hide behind VT claims and rolefish wagons will not be tolerated. If he's scum and he is NOT lynched there will never be a reason for Mafia to claim a PR again. They can claim VT all day long, get the wagon to drop, and move on to more PR hunting (which is, mind you, the one thing Mafia IS trying to accomplish). It is for this very reason that I have refused to claim. If CF is scum, allowing him to push a different wagon and force a claim is 100% beneficial to only one team: Mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 27, 2012, 05:37:20 pm
The thing is I would never propose the opposite scenario because I'm relatively certain that Galzria is Town. I'm not as certain that Frisk is Mafia but practically everything he says confirms that notion more and more. If we can lynch scum D2 then I think it's a fair trade. I'd rather hit scum D1 and I think a Frisk lynch is the brisk lynch to get that job done.

Why are you certain that Galzria is town?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 27, 2012, 05:59:09 pm
Because his arguments are the strongest pro-town arguments made all game. I find Robz arguments to be a bit radical but ultimately they are the second most pro-town arguments.

The fact that you watched a wagon form on you and sat coolly for a while appeared very pro-twon to me as well for the fact is a Frisk lynch has the best informational output of any lynch. Now that you are fighting it and the way you are fighting appears to be rather scummy in the sense that it isn't nearly a pro-town stance as it were.

I'm just as "certain" that Frisk is scum because of the method of his play as I am Glazria to be town because of his play. "Certainty" being used in a mathematical sense in that it is probabalistic and not absolute. It got really cloudy and windy and thundery an hour ago and I was "certain" that it was going to rain for some amount of time. It didn't rain a drop and the weather passed. But how many times has the same weather appeared and the rain did fall... way more often than not.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 27, 2012, 06:04:34 pm
Because his arguments are the strongest pro-town arguments made all game. I find Robz arguments to be a bit radical but ultimately they are the second most pro-town arguments.

The fact that you watched a wagon form on you and sat coolly for a while appeared very pro-twon to me as well for the fact is a Frisk lynch has the best informational output of any lynch. Now that you are fighting it and the way you are fighting appears to be rather scummy in the sense that it isn't nearly a pro-town stance as it were.

I'm just as "certain" that Frisk is scum because of the method of his play as I am Glazria to be town because of his play. "Certainty" being used in a mathematical sense in that it is probabalistic and not absolute. It got really cloudy and windy and thundery an hour ago and I was "certain" that it was going to rain for some amount of time. It didn't rain a drop and the weather passed. But how many times has the same weather appeared and the rain did fall... way more often than not.

PPS - I am not scum - and the wagon on me is information - which is one of the reasons why I didn't fight it.  If we lynch Galzria, then we will have 2 wagons of information.  Yes - I'll have more information than you, because I KNOW that i'm town, while you're going to have to take my word for it.

You'd feel the same way if 4 people had voted for you.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 27, 2012, 06:14:13 pm
You'd feel the same way if 4 people had voted for you.

I know how it feels just to have people looking at you sideways and have yet to feel the heat of a real wagon so I am going to take your word on that and believe it.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 28, 2012, 02:33:47 am
@frisk: if u are going to label me as crazy you should first point out why my theory that if you are town then it is likely that YN/eevee/shark are also town is crazy.

I think it is quite reasonable. If you are town and one of them is scum, why does that guy not join the wagon? He has the chance if he would not like to hammer when PPS backed off.

@YN: can you explain why you rank frisk at #3 but is never willing to lynch him?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 28, 2012, 03:31:53 am
I think mafia is either fine with no lunch- or they are waiting for deadline as an excuse.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 28, 2012, 03:58:49 am
Maybe I am indeed crazy. I hope you don't blame me too much that I want to know whether I am crazy by lynching you.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 28, 2012, 09:55:17 am
I absolutely wont lynch/vote for Frisk, even though I do think it would be informational. I'd rather let it go to nolynch if thats the only alternative.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 28, 2012, 10:16:25 am
I absolutely wont lynch/vote for Frisk, even though I do think it would be informational. I'd rather let it go to nolynch if thats the only alternative.

I think mafia is either fine with no lunch- or they are waiting for deadline as an excuse.


????
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 28, 2012, 10:24:43 am
I absolutely wont lynch/vote for Frisk, even though I do think it would be informational. I'd rather let it go to nolynch if thats the only alternative.

I think mafia is either fine with no lunch- or they are waiting for deadline as an excuse.


????

Frisk was suspecting all of the guys not voting for him of possibly hammering near the deadline and using the deadline as an excuse. I just clarified I wont do that. I am sticking with my read of Frisk being town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 28, 2012, 10:31:52 am
@YN: can you explain why you rank frisk at #3 but is never willing to lynch him?

Well I can't say that I feel that way anymore. At the time )#396), I listed the reason as "a gut feeling." I just don't have that anymore. A revised list would Eevee and timchen above him, but not because they are lurkers. The main knock I have on C_F at this point is that I agree with Galzria that his wagon-is-information strategy doesn't seem to make sense. I do appreciate that he has been spearheading our hunt for Mafia. Though he has had some scummy play, I do think that having him around is worthwhile.

So it's not that I was ever super-willing to lynch him before, but that I couldn't bring myself to lynch him now.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 28, 2012, 11:42:44 am
Looks like we're going for a no lynch stalemate.

This has always struck me as being a pretty pro-town move despite vehement opposition to it. We get 90% of the D1 info and we avoid lynching a Townie so we go into D2 with one more head than usual and the dead townie still gives us information to work with relative to the information built D1.

I keep forgetting, tell me again why no lynch is Bad Idea®?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 28, 2012, 11:49:47 am
I keep forgetting, tell me again why no lynch is Bad Idea®?
Having a wagon to analyze would be good. If we nolynch, scum will kill at night, our power roles might do something, but other than that its basicly day 1 all over again. If we dont get a flip, we cant really analyze any of the wagons.

I'm not sure how bad or good this is. I thiiink it has got to be better than lynching a townie, but its not like we really have 0% at hitting scum.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 28, 2012, 12:19:48 pm
No lynch is really a bad idea.

Saying you'll get 90% of the information is just, wrong. If we go no lynch, say the scum kills eevee or shark or me tonight, what do we get tomorrow? Nothing. The key is that while what a townie said is sincere, it is not guaranteed to be true. And the scum won't kill those key figure (say frisk) whose flip provides critical information.

If you go no lynch you basically put your hope on the town PRs. The problem of that for me is that it is probably too luck dependent.

Sincerely, nobody cares about the points I've made for lynching frisk? I can only understand the objection if you view him as 100% town. But only scum will know that.

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 28, 2012, 12:36:49 pm


Sincerely, nobody cares about the points I've made for lynching frisk? I can only understand the objection if you view him as 100% town. But only scum will know that.

I agree that lynching Frisk would give us a ton of information. But my personal town read on him is too strong, I wont vote for someone I'm pretty sure is town just to get us some information.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 28, 2012, 01:25:06 pm
I'm not the biggest opponent of No Lynch--in fact, among the veteran players, I am its lone sort-of supporter--but here's the problem: the mafia won't kill Frisk tonight. So then tomorrow we will be having this same discussion about him. It will take 2 NK periods before we resolve whether Frisk is town or not, and that's 1 more than if we kill him now.

I am absolutely sure that killing him is the best move for the town. Whether it reveals a mafia or not is another matter.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 28, 2012, 01:37:32 pm
Robz, do you think I should vote for Frisk even if I'm fairly confident he is town?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 28, 2012, 01:57:45 pm
Robz, do you think I should vote for Frisk even if I'm fairly confident he is town?

No, I don't. You shouldn't vote for someone if you are fairly confident that they are town.

However, you are wrong to be fairly confident that anyone is town at this point, most of all Frisk. So yes, you should vote for him. Look, no one has done anything to render them definitely town. The closest is Sharky, and I still wouldn't say he's obvtown. The best example of obvtown is SFS in MIV.

Frisk has been leading everybody like sheep, compiling, uh, way too much information for this stage of the game. He's had flashes of irritability. And Galzria's point about making a different first round kill than usual makes sense. Also, we know that lynching him will not lose us a power role (which is MEGA important), and it's informational for wagon reasons.

So I think you should vote for him. I don't want you to vote for anybody you think is definitely town, but I hope you see why you are wrong to think Frisk is definitely town (really, I think you're wrong to think that about anybody).
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 28, 2012, 02:13:49 pm
Robz, do you think I should vote for Frisk even if I'm fairly confident he is town?

No, I don't. You shouldn't vote for someone if you are fairly confident that they are town.

However, you are wrong to be fairly confident that anyone is town at this point, most of all Frisk. So yes, you should vote for him. Look, no one has done anything to render them definitely town. The closest is Sharky, and I still wouldn't say he's obvtown. The best example of obvtown is SFS in MIV.

Frisk has been leading everybody like sheep, compiling, uh, way too much information for this stage of the game. He's had flashes of irritability. And Galzria's point about making a different first round kill than usual makes sense. Also, we know that lynching him will not lose us a power role (which is MEGA important), and it's informational for wagon reasons.

So I think you should vote for him. I don't want you to vote for anybody you think is definitely town, but I hope you see why you are wrong to think Frisk is definitely town (really, I think you're wrong to think that about anybody).
I dont think he is definitely town. I said I'm "fairly confident". I think he is more likely to be town than anyone else here.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 28, 2012, 02:59:50 pm
Robz, do you think I should vote for Frisk even if I'm fairly confident he is town?

No, I don't. You shouldn't vote for someone if you are fairly confident that they are town.

However, you are wrong to be fairly confident that anyone is town at this point, most of all Frisk. So yes, you should vote for him. Look, no one has done anything to render them definitely town. The closest is Sharky, and I still wouldn't say he's obvtown. The best example of obvtown is SFS in MIV.

Frisk has been leading everybody like sheep, compiling, uh, way too much information for this stage of the game. He's had flashes of irritability. And Galzria's point about making a different first round kill than usual makes sense. Also, we know that lynching him will not lose us a power role (which is MEGA important), and it's informational for wagon reasons.

So I think you should vote for him. I don't want you to vote for anybody you think is definitely town, but I hope you see why you are wrong to think Frisk is definitely town (really, I think you're wrong to think that about anybody).
I dont think he is definitely town. I said I'm "fairly confident". I think he is more likely to be town than anyone else here.

Why on earth is Frisk more likely to be town than anyone else here???
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 28, 2012, 03:25:36 pm
Why on earth is Frisk more likely to be town than anyone else here???
Because I think so?

Look, I dont blame anyone for thinking different, but I cant ignore the massive town read I have on Frisk.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 28, 2012, 04:10:14 pm
Why on earth is Frisk more likely to be town than anyone else here???
Because I think so?

Look, I dont blame anyone for thinking different, but I cant ignore the massive town read I have on Frisk.

Fair enough. I don't have a massive town read on anybody, though.

If we do kill Frisk, another plus is it will tell us something about Eevee!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 28, 2012, 04:41:54 pm
Anything going on?  I'm on phone lurking at Costco.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 28, 2012, 04:50:46 pm
My death will prove nothing re: eevee. He may just be trying to gain town cred with his uncanny ability to detect town
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 28, 2012, 04:51:40 pm
About to go see Batman and dinner and all that so it'll be deadline before I post again but I'll try to keep up by phone here and there.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 28, 2012, 05:02:40 pm
Pps - any chance of helping out with a galz lynch before your picture?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 28, 2012, 05:32:26 pm
My death will prove nothing re: eevee. He may just be trying to gain town cred with his uncanny ability to detect town
It obviously wouldn't prove anything, but you can't really say it wouldn't help in determining my alignment.

Pps - any chance of helping out with a galz lynch before your picture?
Vote:Galzria. Rather Galzria than nolynch.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 28, 2012, 05:42:09 pm
Eevee, explain to me, if you will, how you have a town read off someone who has expressed extreme desire to rolefish, and has explicitly lied about me to further his case on me.

Also, while you're at it, do you mind putting a case together on me? (Because if someone felt inclined to go back and read your posts, funny thing, they would never find one presented).

For that matter, I believe it's been asked before, but is my only crime to appear pro-town? Hmm. Interesting.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 28, 2012, 05:45:35 pm
I lied?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 28, 2012, 05:48:05 pm
All right guys - In about an hour I'm going to go into phone lurk mode.  I'll do my best to monitor the situation - but in the event that scum hammers me - I will leave you with my parting thoughts in advance.

I suspect that 1 scum is currently voting for me, and 1 scum is not.  This makes things nice and easy (1/4 scum on each side - same odds as 2 scum in eight)

Of the folks on my wagon, I suspect RobZ and Galz the most.  First - Galz is not posting as much as he does in other games.  For example, I asked a question @ 9am this morning.  No Galzria post - but he's been all over the forums.

First off, this is a flat out lie. Here is a link to my profile and post history today:

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=profile;area=showposts;u=959

I have made a total of 4 posts today (well, since I woke up - not counting ~1:00am stuff), and only ONE of those was after CF asked me his question - That post, fwiw, was all of 3 words long. This is more spin from scum trying to paint a picture that gets somebody other than himself lynched.

RobZ i suspect as well - but the amount of suspicion on him is just far too ripe for me.

timchen I am starting to view as crazy rather than crafty.

PPS is just straight crazy.  I hope that this experience will teach him that being confident in this game is totally wrongheaded.

Off my wagon, I suspect Manda and eeVee the most.  I suspect that they will hammer me near the deadline with the excuse that its hammer time.  However, since lynch > no lynch - I think they are waiting and hoping that one of the townies gets it... thus only leaving 1 scum on the wagon who voted for me (1/5 = 20%)  Then they can night kill one of those people, and and they are at 1/4 (25%) and 1/3 (33%), although this isn't a guarantee.  They may prefer to kill someone off the wagon.

If scum is forced to lynch me, then I suspect they absolutely kill someone off the wagon to leave maximum room for suspicion of those who false lynched me.

I view young nick with some suspicion (lurker), and I think that shark_bait is obv town.

I promise that lynching me will not accomplish the goal of the first mafia game to lynch scum on day 1.  I think that Galz has a much better chance, and besides: he's in too many other games anyway.

First off, what's the value of a promise without a flip to back it up? I promise you that if you lynch me, I'll flip Day/Night Vig with bullet-proof immunity and a two-shot investigative ability. Yeah.

Second, the number of games that I am in has absolutely no bearing on my role here, and the idea that anybody would use this as an excuse to force a lynch through is ridiculous. It's a scum justification trying to get townies on-board.

---

To answer your question: CF has done nothing but role-fish all game. He stated early on that he desired to keep pushing wagons until the person being pushed was forced to claim. This is extremely anti-town. Furthermore, if that was indeed the case, it isn't something likely said by a PR, now is it? CF's wagon went up to L-1 and he did not claim. This means that he is either a VT, or Scum. At this point, I would MUCH rather role those dice, than keep fishing until we DO hit a power role, allowing the Mafia a huge advantage going forward.

If he IS a Vanilla Townie, that is the best possible non-mafia-lynch we could get. If he is Scum, we've set the standard that scum trying to hide behind VT claims and rolefish wagons will not be tolerated. If he's scum and he is NOT lynched there will never be a reason for Mafia to claim a PR again. They can claim VT all day long, get the wagon to drop, and move on to more PR hunting (which is, mind you, the one thing Mafia IS trying to accomplish). It is for this very reason that I have refused to claim. If CF is scum, allowing him to push a different wagon and force a claim is 100% beneficial to only one team: Mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 28, 2012, 05:51:33 pm
Sorry, phone posting - I really don't think I lied, but my apologies if I was truly mistaken about your level of activity on Friday.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 28, 2012, 05:52:01 pm
Ps - you are totally scum
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 28, 2012, 05:53:49 pm
Ps - you are totally scum

Willing to self lynch yourself tomorrow if I get lynched today? Because I WILL flip town, and your ridiculous lie and scum play will be absolutely and totally revealed.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 28, 2012, 05:55:56 pm
Ps - you are totally scum

Willing to self lynch yourself tomorrow if I get lynched today? Because I WILL flip town, and your ridiculous lie and scum play will be absolutely and totally revealed.


Why would I agree to killing 2 town?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on July 28, 2012, 05:57:47 pm
Well, I don't know what to do at this point but beg Sharky, Mandy, or Nicky to vote for Frisky. Of course nobody wants to be the hammer vote, least of all when you're not sure. I get that.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 28, 2012, 06:01:13 pm
Ps - you are totally scum

Willing to self lynch yourself tomorrow if I get lynched today? Because I WILL flip town, and your ridiculous lie and scum play will be absolutely and totally revealed.


Why would I agree to killing 2 town?

Gonna play the old "Oh woe is me, I really thought he was scum" card, even when the only case against me is that I'm viewed as too-town? Good luck with that.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 28, 2012, 06:01:31 pm
You are the dude who likes no lunch
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 28, 2012, 06:23:12 pm
Eevee, explain to me, if you will, how you have a town read off someone who has expressed extreme desire to rolefish, and has explicitly lied about me to further his case on me.

Also, while you're at it, do you mind putting a case together on me? (Because if someone felt inclined to go back and read your posts, funny thing, they would never find one presented).

For that matter, I believe it's been asked before, but is my only crime to appear pro-town? Hmm. Interesting.
I dont know what to tell you. Frisk doesnt seem mafia to me, I cant just unthink it because it would be convenient.

I dont think Frisk knowingly lied to build a case against you. Sounded more like he remembered some stuff wrong or something.

I'd have to read back to remember what you said I thought sounded off, but basicly not getting a town read from you so I think you are better than nolynch. If Robz or Nick had any votes, I'd be equally willing to vote for one of them.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 28, 2012, 06:29:36 pm
Ughh... what to do?  I can't say I'm a fan of the CF lynch, but I also do not want no lynch. 

Robz, I have heard your plee and I am considering.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 28, 2012, 06:31:55 pm
Eevee, explain to me, if you will, how you have a town read off someone who has expressed extreme desire to rolefish, and has explicitly lied about me to further his case on me.

Also, while you're at it, do you mind putting a case together on me? (Because if someone felt inclined to go back and read your posts, funny thing, they would never find one presented).

For that matter, I believe it's been asked before, but is my only crime to appear pro-town? Hmm. Interesting.
I dont know what to tell you. Frisk doesnt seem mafia to me, I cant just unthink it because it would be convenient.

I dont think Frisk knowingly lied to build a case against you. Sounded more like he remembered some stuff wrong or something.

I'd have to read back to remember what you said I thought sounded off, but basicly not getting a town read from you so I think you are better than nolynch. If Robz or Nick had any votes, I'd be equally willing to vote for one of them.

If I'm lynched, and after I flip town, how will you feel?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 28, 2012, 06:41:29 pm
If you are town CF, I truly apologize.  But I really don't want to see a no lynch and I don't want to just assume that someone else will do this.

Vote:  Captain Frisk
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 28, 2012, 06:44:45 pm
If I'm lynched, and after I flip town, how will you feel?
(http://50fifty50.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Homer-doh.png)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 28, 2012, 06:45:49 pm
If you are town CF, I truly apologize.  But I really don't want to see a no lynch and I don't want to just assume that someone else will do this.

Vote:  Captain Frisk

If I'm right about Frisk being town, I think this is pretty scummy maneuver.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on July 28, 2012, 06:47:42 pm
Doh.

Thanks for the good game folks. I am indeed vanilla town
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 28, 2012, 06:54:28 pm
I hate to say I told you so.

BUT I TOLD YOU SO.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 28, 2012, 06:58:28 pm
I hate to say I told you so.

BUT I TOLD YOU SO.

Easy to know for sure before hand when you're scum. ;) (This post is NOT an accusation, and should be taken in jest).

A VT lynch is still better than a PR lynch, and honestly IS better than no-lynch. It's just nowhere near as sweet as a scum lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 28, 2012, 07:04:20 pm
Flavor later when not posting from phone.

Captain Frisk has been lynched.  He was a Town Vanilla.

Night 1 has begun.  Commands are due in 48 hours from this post.

This thread is now LOCKED.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 30, 2012, 07:50:52 pm
Day 1 final votecount below.  Day 2 starting post coming up momentarily.

Vote Count 1-17

Captain_Frisk (5): timchen, Galzria, Robz888, pingpongsam, shark_bait
shark_bait (2): manda2014, Young Nick
Galzria (2): Captain_Frisk, Eevee

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Captain_Frisk has been lynched.  He was a Town Vanilla.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on July 30, 2012, 07:58:03 pm
Seven noseless individuals woke to a cold, rainy day.  After the debacle of last night - when five of their number latched a hold of Captain Frisk and tore him asunder, only to find no stolen noses nor any Mafia identification among his remains - what horrible sight might await them this morning?

The answer came to them by way of a traveling Horse Trader, who had gruesome news.  "Say, did you fellas hear about the body they found over at the jail?"

With sinking hearts, the seven went to the Hamlet's small prison.  Small it was, but with stout iron bars in the windows.  Stout enough to bludgeon a man to death, as the missing eighth lay on the ground with his noseless face crumpled into mush.

Worst of all, he proved to be none other than the keeper of said jail.  Had he not been slain, perhaps he could have done the Town some great good.  Now, without him... was all lost?

Robz888 has been slain.  He was the Town Jailkeeper.

Day 2 Start!

Not Voting {7}:
Eevee, Galzria, Young Nick, manda2014, timchen, shark_bait, pingpongsam

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. EDT

This thread is now UNLOCKED.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 30, 2012, 07:59:56 pm
So, just in case anyone forgot..

I told you so.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 30, 2012, 08:03:22 pm
Mafia hitting our jailkeeper spells trouble though. :/ Anyone have a theory why they targeted Robz? Maybe they figured he was laying low, knew he wasnt mafia so concluded there is a good chance he has a power role? Maybe they just wanted a good player dead?

Should reread what Robz said about everyone yesterday I guess. And who said what about robz.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 30, 2012, 08:04:17 pm
Well that sucked.

Eevee, your "I told you so's" seem SO confident and cocky. It's not the first time you've said it, and it's just amazing how SURE you've been. Care to explain how all your reads are so good with such little information?

Also, Robz was either our only PR, or we have a cop. If we have a cop and they investigated town, they should not say - period.

If we have a cop and they investigated scum, they should try to lynch said scum without claiming, and only claim as a last resort.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 30, 2012, 08:19:11 pm
Well that sucked.

Eevee, your "I told you so's" seem SO confident and cocky. It's not the first time you've said it, and it's just amazing how SURE you've been. Care to explain how all your reads are so good with such little information?
I seem to have a pretty good grasp on how Frisk plays I guess. I know I shoudnt be happy he flipped town, but.. I fought for his live the entire day yesterday. I was almost feeling stupid because I was the only one and I was so sure. I've never tried that hard to save someone (other than myself) from getting lynched, and I didnt have any investigative results to back that up. Repeating I told you so to everyone is childish, cocky and stupid, but its just because I'm so happy I made a good read and sticked to it. I promise I'll stop it now.  :)

Are you implying I'm scummy? I stuck my neck out to Frisk pretty damn hard. And didnt cave when nolynch seemed like a very real possibility.

Also, Robz was either our only PR, or we have a cop. If we have a cop and they investigated town, they should not say - period.

If we have a cop and they investigated scum, they should try to lynch said scum without claiming, and only claim as a last resort.
I approve of this plan 100%. I think everyone else should too.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 30, 2012, 11:39:01 pm
Frisk: I am sorry. Really sorry. I am insane. Still... long post to come.

Robz: in my eyes he softclaimed PR d1. Dunno whether scum thought the same.

I think there must be a scum among me, pps, galzria. I think it's good time to go back to the pair analysis.

So: FoS: galzria

(Not Voting for him, in case I am insane again and scum can quick hammer during I am away)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 30, 2012, 11:43:04 pm
I didnt notice robz softclaiming anything (but I never notice these things). Are you referring to him saying "at least in Frisk's case the worst case is VT"?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on July 31, 2012, 12:00:14 am
Well that sucked.

Eevee, your "I told you so's" seem SO confident and cocky. It's not the first time you've said it, and it's just amazing how SURE you've been. Care to explain how all your reads are so good with such little information?

Also, Robz was either our only PR, or we have a cop. If we have a cop and they investigated town, they should not say - period.

If we have a cop and they investigated scum, they should try to lynch said scum without claiming, and only claim as a last resort.

This is not true. Doctor/Jailkeeper is a possible set-up.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 31, 2012, 12:02:29 am
Well that sucked.

Eevee, your "I told you so's" seem SO confident and cocky. It's not the first time you've said it, and it's just amazing how SURE you've been. Care to explain how all your reads are so good with such little information?

Also, Robz was either our only PR, or we have a cop. If we have a cop and they investigated town, they should not say - period.

If we have a cop and they investigated scum, they should try to lynch said scum without claiming, and only claim as a last resort.

This is not true. Doctor/Jailkeeper is a possible set-up.

Ah, you're right. I probably missed it due to the formatting on my mobile. Apologies.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 31, 2012, 12:12:53 am
Well that sucked.

Eevee, your "I told you so's" seem SO confident and cocky. It's not the first time you've said it, and it's just amazing how SURE you've been. Care to explain how all your reads are so good with such little information?

Also, Robz was either our only PR, or we have a cop. If we have a cop and they investigated town, they should not say - period.

If we have a cop and they investigated scum, they should try to lynch said scum without claiming, and only claim as a last resort.

This is not true. Doctor/Jailkeeper is a possible set-up.
Ah, you're right. I probably missed it due to the formatting on my mobile. Apologies.
Oh, I thought it was intentional and Galz was saying "lets not even mention the possibility of a doctor, thats how low profile he is going to keep if we have one".
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 31, 2012, 12:21:20 am
Well that sucked.

Eevee, your "I told you so's" seem SO confident and cocky. It's not the first time you've said it, and it's just amazing how SURE you've been. Care to explain how all your reads are so good with such little information?

Also, Robz was either our only PR, or we have a cop. If we have a cop and they investigated town, they should not say - period.

If we have a cop and they investigated scum, they should try to lynch said scum without claiming, and only claim as a last resort.

This is not true. Doctor/Jailkeeper is a possible set-up.
Ah, you're right. I probably missed it due to the formatting on my mobile. Apologies.
Oh, I thought it was intentional and Galz was saying "lets not even mention the possibility of a doctor, thats how low profile he is going to keep if we have one".

Well, that's absolutely true regardless.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on July 31, 2012, 06:25:21 am
Ugh, I keep coming back to the notion that No Lynch is a sound D1 play. I understand the arguments against it but my experience thus far negates how good the theory sounds.

At this point I have nothing but questions:

Did Mafia get really lucky or was Robz that transparent?

Is the Frisk wagon the place to study or do we look at who was implicating Robz Day 1?

The only voter on Robz was Sharky, is everyone still convinced of his innocence considering he was also on the Frisk wagon?

Galzria was a close second wagon in D1 are all of his assertions now validated?


I really hate the D2 feeling when you've managed to lynch your own and another dies in the night. The resolve to positively hit scum is strong, however.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 31, 2012, 05:38:52 pm
Ok, lynching Frisk was even worse than I first realized - he was also the only one driving the discussion on!

I think studying the Frisk wagon is much more useful. Who threw opportunistic-looking votes on Frisk?

Sharky indeed looks rather scummy. Care to explain your actions yesterday, shark_bait?

Who else were opposed to Frisk's lynch, or was it just me?

Did anyone catch Robz dropping any hints on having a power role? I didnt notice anything.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 31, 2012, 06:04:55 pm
I would be glad to, Eevee.  I hammered because I didn't want a no lynch day and with a hour or so left until the deadline and no other wagon picking up, I decided that since I wouldn't be around for the last hour, that I would hammer.  I realize that I went against most everything I said about me not wanting to lynch Frisk.  However, my desire to lynch was greater than my desire to not lynch frisk.

To answer the follow up question of why I desired to lynch.  I believe I posted back in the thread that a no lynch gains us nothing.  After D1, regardless of if we lynch or no lynch, we will lose in 2 days if we have another 2 VT lynches, assuming no PR interaction which is looking very probable now.  For that reason, i felt it pertinent to get the 1 lynch that we could so that we could come into today with as much concrete information as possible.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 31, 2012, 06:21:17 pm
I would be glad to, Eevee.  I hammered because I didn't want a no lynch day and with a hour or so left until the deadline and no other wagon picking up, I decided that since I wouldn't be around for the last hour, that I would hammer.  I realize that I went against most everything I said about me not wanting to lynch Frisk.  However, my desire to lynch was greater than my desire to not lynch frisk.

To answer the follow up question of why I desired to lynch.  I believe I posted back in the thread that a no lynch gains us nothing.  After D1, regardless of if we lynch or no lynch, we will lose in 2 days if we have another 2 VT lynches, assuming no PR interaction which is looking very probable now.  For that reason, i felt it pertinent to get the 1 lynch that we could so that we could come into today with as much concrete information as possible.

But the concrete information points to you being mafia.

You know Frisk is town. You try to score some town rep by defending him. Then the wagon doesnt seem to go quite far enough, and nolynch looks imminent. You realize you want a townie gone. You hammer Frisk.

Again, for town its better to nolynch than kill a VT. You hammered someone you had had a town read on. That response didnt convince me. Vote: shark_bait

No, I dont want the day to end just yet, obviously. But I think this will both make others look at shark_baits actions more closely and give shark_bait more motivation to defend himself.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 31, 2012, 06:34:39 pm
Ok, first on Robz: here's what I've picked up:
#361
Quote
At this point, Shark_bait is newbie town, I think. Manda has the enthusiasm of a potential mafia, or maybe just somebody really excited about the game. Too early too tell. Eevee and Galzria are same as always. Frisk is an acceptable lynch.

Who am I missing? Oh, no particular reads on Young Nick or Timchen.

But we won't know anything until we just pick somebody to kill. The most important thing--more important than finding a mafia, actually, because we won't find a mafia, if all other games are any lesson--is to not pick a townie with a power role to be lynched.
Note how he said he has no reads on me, and emphasized not to lynch PR in the same time frame where he was a possible lynch target due to his lurkiness in this game.

Before his list, I had this post:
#419
Quote
@Robz: I don't want to vote you just because of your lurkiness. I may have to if you continue to be on the forum but refuse to post in this game.

And in his list, he listed me 7th, just before shark:
#424
Quote
Fine! The demands of you people. I'm currently trying to conquer Europe.

Suspicious, PPS, Frisk, Manda, Young Nick, Eevee, Galzria, Timchen, Sharky, Not Suspicious
I was very surprised to see myself down there. I had the feeling that he was replying to me that we should not kill him precisely because he is PR. Those are probably where I've picked up the feelings about him.

But basically, saying something about not to vote for PR when himself is in danger smells like he tries to implicitly claim himself PR. Later correspondence may exist only in my imagination.

After looking back, yeah, it is interesting that the scum chose to kill Robz. I wouldn't say Robz is obviously PR. If as I have assumed that there are at least 1 scum among me, Galz, Robz, and PPS, killing one of us narrows it down to 1 scum among 3 or 2 for the townies on this list. But yeah, if they killed someone on the opposite end of the wagon the situation would be similar. In this case I will probably go for Galzria today. However, if both scum are NOT on the wagon then it is quite possible that they are going to eliminate someone on the wagon. I really do entertain this possibility, as both PPS and Galzria still read town to me.

@eevee: before I post my feelings about frisk, can you say something more concrete why you think he is obvious town?

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 31, 2012, 06:58:53 pm
Alright, will you explain why no lynch is better.  I've put my case down on why a lynch is better than no lynch in this game.  I have seen no one argue why it would be better to go no lynch.  If someone has something, I'd be interested in hearing it.

FYI, I did not know that CF was town. 

Now put yourself in my shoes.  You play very scummy mafia throughout the beginning of the game and end the day with red flags flags going around on all but 3 people.  Those people are Galz, Robz and CF.  (Read CF and Robz post to verify if you want, I will tell you that they are there.  Galz, feel free to counter if I've misinterpreted you).  You want a lynch because you realize that you still get 2 more chances at lynching regardless of whether you no lynch or not.  So you decide to lynch 1 of the 3 people defending you as town.  Now it's night time, you need a night kill.  You think to yourself, let's kill Robz because he is ANOTHER person who was defending me.  Now you have just put yourself in a position where the majority of the town is willing and ready to kill you.

Okay, time to step out of my shoes.  I know what you are thinking about right now.

WIFOM



Galz, if I'm wrong about your D1 assessment, feel free to counter.

Now why in the world as a mafia member would I kill off 2 of the 3 people defending me?

Think about that. 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on July 31, 2012, 07:01:53 pm
You guys may be thinking that I had some whole master scheme to play scummy, gain credibility by a few people for playing noobish and thus avoid lynch.  Then in lynching/night kill decide to kill only people defending my credibility all so that I can say, "Wow, that would be a stupid mafia to do that!"

Yeah, that seems pretty likely to me.....
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on July 31, 2012, 07:06:11 pm
Nope, you got my feelings towards your play yesterday about right.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 31, 2012, 07:30:24 pm
@timchen
the biggest thing was his implied VT claim. Mafia Frisk would have fakeclaimed a power role. He showed willingness to take the bullet to help town win the game over and over, not something scum ever does. Frisk was our dark knight!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on July 31, 2012, 08:19:35 pm
Frisk was our dark knight!
No, actually Frisk was the hero Gotham needed, not the one it deserved.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 31, 2012, 10:42:32 pm
@eevee: but why does the VT frisk not want to claim VT directly? Also, I got the feeling that mafia frisk might know what I was about pushing his wagon so he knew claiming PR there wouldn't help him.

I really thought frisk is at least 70% scum yestergameday. A few reasons:
(1) not claiming. Shouldn't a VT has nothing to hide, pretty much like eevee @M6? I really thought he was mafia and was forced to be in a position that he knew claiming PR wouldn't have helped him.
(2) #106. Strictly speaking frisk was not lying, but I thought he implicitly meant that this game (M7) might be the first game that we are against each other. But he knew we are against each other in M6. If I were in his shoes as a VT I wouldn't have said that in this game.
(3) He hasn't built up any systematic cases against anyone else. Mostly against Galzria, but I didn't find him pushing hard for it. At some place also said he is fine with eevee lynch.

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on July 31, 2012, 10:57:12 pm
Ok. But we cannot let frisk die in vain.

From his death I think we can distinguish people into three lists:
Wanted to lynch him: me, Galz, Robz, PPS
Ok to lynch him: SB, Manda
Unwilling to lynch him: eevee, YN

Where are the scums? They killed Robz. Suppose they didn't know that Robz was PR, does that imply that they are more likely not to be in the same group as Robz? Generally I would say yes.

However, scums might kill him afraid of his experience. It is also a bit strechy for the scums to stay away from a town's wagon for so long.

But I think we can say with some certainty that there is at most one scum on the wagon, not including SB. At this point my suspicion is on Manda and YN.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 01, 2012, 01:00:56 am
So first off, I have to let y'all know about my posting availability. Now that I am done with jury duty (it was a hung jury that was immensely frustrating) I am back to my normal job which has me up a lot earlier. As a result I am not up as late and thus cannot post as much. So I'll try to post when I can, but life is busy. 

As for the business. I can say that I should be considered in the "maybe willing to lynch C_F" group. The time crunch was hard and I wasn't sure if I could be the one to hammer someone that I had a slight-moderate town read on. Now that he has flipped town and we are analyzing wagons, I think I have to disagree with the common thought here. Not to invoke chaos, but I find it hard to be confident that the Mafia had one on the wagon and one not. I also find it hard to be confident that both were on or both weren't. It was such a weird day with last-minute drama that I honestly feel like they could have been anywhere. We were so desperate to lynch that they could have easily laid back and let the town do the work. Maybe they were paranoid about not getting a lynch and both were on.

It's hard to say for sure when it was such an unorthodox D1.

I still am not sold on S_B. His play would be nothing short of brilliant if he is Mafia. We have to ask ourselves if he is capable of brilliant play. I doubt he is, seeing as he's a newbie, but it is a scary thought to consider. His huge WIFOM post...it intrigues me. On the whole it makes me trust him more, but there is that chance that we are cutting him crazy slack.

At this time I want to hear more from manda than anyone else. She hasn't been too vocal recently.

And @timchen: I don't really see the subtle soft-claims that you're talking about. I know that it looks like confirmation bias to me, but if you saw it, I can't argue it. I can't imagine Mafia picked up on this. They probably just got lucky.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 01, 2012, 01:26:30 am
Just got to computer. Substantial post coming.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 01, 2012, 01:42:40 am
Okay. Lots to respond to here. Heeeere we go.

Concerning the supposed Robz softclaim, I never noticed anything that made him even seem like a PR, much less an actual softclaim. As far as him saying "don't vote PR," how does that make HIM seem like a PR? Like YN, this theory seems more like confirmation bias to me than anyone else. Obviously we don't want to lynch a PR. Anyone could have said that, and I doubt that's what made the mafia decide to make him their NK. The most plausible theory to me is that they're trying to get rid of the experienced players. This argument makes even more sense to me if one of the mafia IS an experienced player.

That being said, I'd say my suspicion at this point is mostly on Eevee. I don't have any solid analysis yet, I just feel like something about the way he's posting feels off. An example would be him getting really defensive in #733; there's no need to be very defensive if you're town. Like I said, though, I don't have any solid analysis yet, so who knows? My suspicion may change after I go through all his posts tomorrow. But for time being, my suspicion rests there.

More and more, Sharky is feeling like town to me. There was so much suspicion on him yestergameday that if he were mafia I feel like he would have altered his play style somewhat, and it still feels the same to me.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 01, 2012, 05:34:52 am
Ok. But we cannot let frisk die in vain.

From his death I think we can distinguish people into three lists:
Wanted to lynch him: me, Galz, Robz, PPS
Ok to lynch him: SB, Manda
Unwilling to lynch him: eevee, YN


The consensus seems to be, no one knew Robz had a power role. I wouldn't expect him to hint he has one either, so this does not surprise me. I dont remember Robz arguing very hard for anyones scumminess, so doesnt seem like he was killed for pointing out the mafia either, so the only logical conclusion I can come to is he was killed for being experienced and good in this game. Which is kind of sad, because I dont think that tells us much about the mafia family that did it, anyone can kill  for that reason.

@manda
Interesting. I think the fact you are accusing me makes you look very much like town to be honest. The reason is: after what happened yesterday, I'm not an easy lynch. I think accusing me first thing in the morning would just be way too bold of a mafia play (I dont think they want to be very controversial atm). Relatively confident you are town now, so that is good.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 01, 2012, 06:43:53 am
I've got some crazy workload going on so I'll be posting early East Coast AM (like now) and later PM. I'll be trying to read up during the day and may get the chance to interject here and there.

While the "they whacked Robz because of his experience" argument carries water I'm beginning to consider that they whacked Robz because he was the most confusing kill. That Robz was the most vocal towards lynching Frisk gives me a great deal of dissonance in light of him being Town. Assuming no tell of his PR; if Mafia had left Robz on the table he would have been an obvious D2 lynch candidate. It seems like there is no cohesive suspicions amongst us this Day. On the one hand it is good in that we aren't walking lockstep into another mislynch. On the other hand, it feels like Mafia has made plays that have sufficiently confused town. This suggests a degree of experienced forethought.

The 2 remaining players with significantly more experience than the rest of us are Eevee and Galzria. I have a very hard time believing either are Mafia but, isn't that the point? To paraphrase Galzria, chasing scum isn't nearly as effective as killing Mafia. Frisk was scummy, Sharky is scummy. Meanwhile, Mafia is making effective kills. While I have no case on either Eevee or Galzria I do have an uneasy feeling one or the both could be expertly playing this field. My eyes are on how the 2 are interacting and how others interact with them for today.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 01, 2012, 06:54:46 am
I dont think Galzria is "cleared" by any means. I found him somewhat suspicious yesterday, and he hasnt done anything to alleviate that.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 01, 2012, 01:07:52 pm
@eevee: Robz did vote for PPS early yesterday, and was pretty much the only one that cast suspicion on him. Can PPS decided to kill him for that?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 01, 2012, 01:21:18 pm
@Young_Nick: this is a very important question. I think you called me lurker twice. Why did you do that?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 01, 2012, 01:23:59 pm
@eevee: Robz did vote for PPS early yesterday, and was pretty much the only one that cast suspicion on him. Can PPS decided to kill him for that?

If I were Mafia I think I would have preferred to have Robz as a relatively easy D2 lynch and worked the angle on how hard he pushed the Frisk wagon. This is the main reason I'm wondering if Mafia detected the PR . Having never been given a Mafia role I am willing to admit I am coming from a handicapped vantage and cannot understand how the Robz lynch was the wisest N1 NK.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 01, 2012, 03:57:48 pm
@Young_Nick: this is a very important question. I think you called me lurker twice. Why did you do that?

I genuinely thought you were lurking for parts of D1. I did not say you were in any of my more recent posts. I don't think lurking is innately a bad thing. In my opinion, it only becomes a problem when someone asks for you to respond and even then you don't say much. Nobody has really done this game, maybe with the exception of Robz.

I do not currently consider you a lurker.

Why do you see this as such an important question? Do you take lurking to be a more serious offense?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 01, 2012, 04:08:56 pm
@YN: no, it's just because I was surprised. But after a careful look back your more recent lurker call (#691) is just a recall of the earlier (#396). I was thinking that as mafia one may not be so interested in carefully reading every post and might call out lurkers just by post count. But yeah, I misread and that is certainly not what you did.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 01, 2012, 07:06:09 pm
repeat: vote: sharky. scummyyyy
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 01, 2012, 07:19:44 pm
repeat: vote: sharky. scummyyyy

I, too, think he is very scummy. Yet I am not sold that he is Mafia. I hope to have time to reread many of his posts tonight and explain whether or not I agree. This would likely be followed by a vote, but I do not want to give a chance to let both Mafia hammer him (though I doubt that this would happen). I'll say it again: if he is Mafia, he has played this in a fantastically daring manner.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 01, 2012, 07:49:13 pm
if he is Mafia, he has played this in a fantastically daring manner.

I would say this, if he is Mafia I don't know who is dumber, him for playing that way or us for letting him live.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 02, 2012, 01:39:31 am
At this point I would really like to hear from Galz about why scum kills Robz.

Ok, I'll also follow frisk, and make this a poll:
(a) do you think robz was killed because scum thought he is PR?
(b) how many scum do you think is on/off the wagon? 0-2, 1-1, or 2-0?
(c) in the case when there is at least one scum on the wagon, who do you think it's the most suspicious?
(d) how about the people off wagon?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 02, 2012, 01:40:35 am
My answer:
(a) prob not.
(b) 1-1 or 0-2.
(c) Galzria
(d) Manda
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 02, 2012, 02:00:21 am
At this point I would really like to hear from Galz about why scum kills Robz.

Ok, I'll also follow frisk, and make this a poll:
(a) do you think robz was killed because scum thought he is PR?
(b) how many scum do you think is on/off the wagon? 0-2, 1-1, or 2-0?
(c) in the case when there is at least one scum on the wagon, who do you think it's the most suspicious?
(d) how about the people off wagon?

Well, when I was a scumling back in M-II, Robz and I killed Tables N1 on my call, and he flipped Cop. My reasoning was that the Morgrim wagon was 4 players (Morgrim self-hammered), including both Robz and myself. Killing somebody on the wagon would reduce to 2 scum in 3 players. Bad odds. So we lynched Tables who was not in our subset, and got lucky on the PR hit.

Here, we had 5 people lynching CF, 3 not. Again, if both scum are on the wagon, killing one member is ridiculous, because it makes the rest of the wagon 2/4 scum. The alternative would be to lynch off the wagon in this case - but that's not what happened.

So why lynch on the wagon? If there was 1 scum on and 1 off, your odds for scum in each subgroup are 1/3, and 1/5. If you are going to change the odds on either set, the latter makes sense. - And if BOTH scum were off the wagon, NK'ing somebody who was onboard is almost a must.

So: My conclusion is that the odds most likely stand as EITHER 1/3 & 1/4 OR 2/3 & 0/4 for the location of scum. In both situations we are more likely to hit scum off the wagon rather than on.

As to why Robz - Scum knew he wasn't scum. They knew he was playing "odd". I don't think they knew he was a PR, but they wanted to lynch somebody on the wagon and he was a good stab in the dark. I think they got lucky.

As for my suspicions: I'm strongly leaning towards Nick, but I can't yet put my finger on it. I'll need to review all of his posts. Eevee is a strong second choice given his over-the-top confidence on his reads - and the fact that while the CF wagon was steaming along, he kept pressure on another townie for lynch - me - and my wagon almost took off a few times. It felt like scum staying off a known town wagon, while pushing another - because he won't get called out until we're both killed and flip town, at which point it's lylo for town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 02, 2012, 02:19:25 am
Galz, you hasn't answered my questions completely. Among the players on the wagon, who do you suspect the most?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 02, 2012, 02:35:33 am
Galz, you hasn't answered my questions completely. Among the players on the wagon, who do you suspect the most?

Probably you, but I don't think that's relevant considering my belief that inn terms of simple odds we are more likely to find scum off the wagon - coupled with the fact that I find two people more suspicious than you.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 02, 2012, 06:40:08 am
(a) do you think robz was killed because scum thought he is PR?
I've gone from say a 80/20 certainty to a 20/80 certainty. The shock and awe left me certain early where review of the post history and consideration of others' views has reduced that certainty. I do feel the question deserves merit for reasons previously outlined.

(b) how many scum do you think is on/off the wagon? 0-2, 1-1, or 2-0?
I am currently giving an equal distribution to each possibility. I honestly have no good mechanism for making this determination.
 
(c) in the case when there is at least one scum on the wagon, who do you think it's the most suspicious?
Sharky - all of the early play plus the hammer leaves me questioning regardless of how hapless it appears.

(d) how about the people off wagon?
Again, I'm finding an equal distribution here. Eevee is the most forward person of this group which always weights suspicion, he has made sure to make it VERY clear he was OFF the Frisk wagon; strong Town play or scummy distancing? The Sharky wagon was an easy wagon. I can see one or both scum camping there because defending that vote is elementary. YN seems to have more opinion but both manda and YN appear to be acquiescing to the flow of the game rather than actively putting forth assertions; typical noob play or scummy stealth?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 02, 2012, 09:15:04 am
(a) do you think robz was killed because scum thought he is PR?
I do not. I think it was because he is a strong player.

(b) how many scum do you think is on/off the wagon? 0-2, 1-1, or 2-0?
1-1 if I had to guess.

(c) in the case when there is at least one scum on the wagon, who do you think it's the most suspicious?
sharky, opportunistic seeming voting. Would have to reread to have a better idea though.

(d) how about the people off wagon?
Young nick maybe? No strong read about this.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 02, 2012, 09:26:27 am
Vote Count 2-1

shark_bait (1): Eevee

Not Voting {6}: Galzria, Young Nick, manda2014, timchen, shark_bait, pingpongsam

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 02, 2012, 06:52:55 pm
At this point I would really like to hear from Galz about why scum kills Robz.

Ok, I'll also follow frisk, and make this a poll:
(a) do you think robz was killed because scum thought he is PR?
(b) how many scum do you think is on/off the wagon? 0-2, 1-1, or 2-0?
(c) in the case when there is at least one scum on the wagon, who do you think it's the most suspicious?
(d) how about the people off wagon?

a) I've already stated that I doubt they figured him to be a PR.
b) I have answered this in saying that I have no idea. I'd say 1-1 or 0-2 (none on the wagon).
c) S_B is probably the most suspicious due to his...unorthodox play. Galzria would be second, though I am not sure why other than his active role in the C_F list.
d) I am pretty comfortable with the three who were not on the wagon. One was me, one was manda, who I trust. If I had to choose I'd say Eevee, but I trust him, too.

Three of the four people who have answered said they see me as scummy in response to part d. Is this due to being one of three who wasn't on the wagon or anything specific?
d)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 02, 2012, 07:56:31 pm
@Young_Nick: Isn't your answer in d) and b) a bit contradictory to each other?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 02, 2012, 07:59:24 pm
@Young_Nick: Isn't your answer in d) and b) a bit contradictory to each other?

I was thinking the SAME thing.

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 02, 2012, 08:08:59 pm
@Young_Nick: Isn't your answer in d) and b) a bit contradictory to each other?

In a word, yes.

My thought process: When answering b) and when discussing the 0-2/1-1/2-0 before timchen's questions I had not thought about who in particular was on or off the wagon. I was merely considering the possibility of Mafia being on or off the wagon. What I meant to say was that I don't suspect who I suspect because of whether or not they were on the wagon. If S_B and Galz were off the wagon, I would still be suspicious of them due to their play. Their ending up on the wagon does not have much influence on me. Obviously they seemed scummy at least partly due to their suspicion of Robz, but this would hold true whether they had voted or not.

It was such a strange first day that I don't feel like the Mafia needed to vote for C_F considering how determined we were to lynch someone. This is not to say that the Mafia did not participate in the lynch seeing as I see it as unlikley that manda and Eevee are the Mafia, and obviously I don't see myself as Mafia.

Going back and thinking about who was on and off the wagon versus the number of people who were on and off the wagon changes my thinking. I now would say 2-0 or maybe 1-1 (with Eevee being the one).

This looks dumb as hell, I know.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 02, 2012, 08:18:00 pm
@Young_Nick: Isn't your answer in d) and b) a bit contradictory to each other?

In a word, yes.

My thought process: When answering b) and when discussing the 0-2/1-1/2-0 before timchen's questions I had not thought about who in particular was on or off the wagon. I was merely considering the possibility of Mafia being on or off the wagon. What I meant to say was that I don't suspect who I suspect because of whether or not they were on the wagon. If S_B and Galz were off the wagon, I would still be suspicious of them due to their play. Their ending up on the wagon does not have much influence on me. Obviously they seemed scummy at least partly due to their suspicion of Robz, but this would hold true whether they had voted or not.

It was such a strange first day that I don't feel like the Mafia needed to vote for C_F considering how determined we were to lynch someone. This is not to say that the Mafia did not participate in the lynch seeing as I see it as unlikley that manda and Eevee are the Mafia, and obviously I don't see myself as Mafia.

Going back and thinking about who was on and off the wagon versus the number of people who were on and off the wagon changes my thinking. I now would say 2-0 or maybe 1-1 (with Eevee being the one).

This looks dumb as hell, I know.

And yet you don't believe they knew Robz was a power role. So after flipping now to 2-0 as a significant possibility, care to explain why they NK'd Robz, reducing the percentage of scum from 2/5 to 2/4?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 02, 2012, 08:20:55 pm
So basically you are saying given no particular strong reason to kill Robz, the two mafia on the wagon actually killed one of the wagoner to further increase the chance for us to find them?

And then you are also saying there need not be mafia on the wagon when in the next paragraph you did not list 0-2 as a possibility?

Actually starting mid d1 you are already hedging like crazy. Maybe we need to punish that.
Vote: Young_Nick
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 02, 2012, 09:01:22 pm
...one was manda, who I trust. If I had to choose I'd say Eevee, but I trust him, too.

1st, why do you trust anyone?

2nd, assuming when you say "trust" you mean "find more town than others", why exactly, do you trust manda? I don't yet have a case against her but I sure don't trust her. Eevee looks pretty town to me although his extreme distancing from the Frisk wagon smells slightly scummy, that is, I don't fully trust him or anyone else for that matter.

Seems to me trust would come easy when you know who is who and only Mafia knows that.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 02, 2012, 09:02:23 pm
Oh yeah, since you guys hate it so much,

FoS: Young Nick
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 02, 2012, 09:07:56 pm
...one was manda, who I trust. If I had to choose I'd say Eevee, but I trust him, too.

1st, why do you trust anyone?

2nd, assuming when you say "trust" you mean "find more town than others", why exactly, do you trust manda? I don't yet have a case against her but I sure don't trust her. Eevee looks pretty town to me although his extreme distancing from the Frisk wagon smells slightly scummy, that is, I don't fully trust him or anyone else for that matter.

Seems to me trust would come easy when you know who is who and only Mafia knows that.

I didnt need to distance myself from the Frisk wagon, if you read any of yesterday you'd know I was as far from it as one can possibly be. But my comments were obviously stupid and caused nothing but confusion and negative feelings among townies + gave mafia a way to accuse me. I regret them.

As I said earlier, manda accusing me today is a play I dont expect mafia to make. Mafia wants to target guys they feel are easy to lynch, build wagons that can take off. I dont think mafia would target me, because I think they'd realize they would have a hard time convincing townies I'm the best lynch there is because of what happened yesterday. I could be wrong here.

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 02, 2012, 09:19:20 pm
Where the heck is Sharky?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 02, 2012, 09:36:39 pm
So basically you are saying given no particular strong reason to kill Robz, the two mafia on the wagon actually killed one of the wagoner to further increase the chance for us to find them?

And then you are also saying there need not be mafia on the wagon when in the next paragraph you did not list 0-2 as a possibility?

Actually starting mid d1 you are already hedging like crazy. Maybe we need to punish that.
Vote: Young_Nick

Yes, I don't think that Mafia have to be on the wagon. Separate from who is on the wagon and who is not, I would not assume that the Mafia would be on the wagon. Having said that, independent of their wagon-status, I do not find Eevee or manda particularly scummy. Thus, I figure that Mafia are probably on the wagon. I say this more as a way of grouping who I trust, not why I trust them. If instead of voting for C_F we were voting for Obama and Romney, I would still say that those who voted differently than I are suspicious. Not because of their votes, because of their play.

And I do think they had reason to kill Robz. He is a veteran player. He was a threat to the Mafia were he to stop lurking. Killing him prevents that, even if it means killing someone who was also on the wagon.

Maybe Mafia figure that more people think like I do. That is to say they do not classify by "on-wagon" and "off-wagon" because D1 was such chaos.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 02, 2012, 09:38:40 pm
I'm here... just not here.  I put most of my thought into BMMMM1 today.

I've got a research presentation tomorrow in front of my lab group, so I've been trying to be extra productive during the day... which coincidentally is when I most often am online.  I'll try to post more tomorrow morning/afternoon, but there's a good chance I won't do much until after 6:00 EST.

A quick few thoughts right now.  I'm fairly certain I've voiced these yesterday.  My wagon is very easy to drive as if it turns up VT lynch, the driver is not to blame but I am to blame.  I believe that 1 mafia member has been an active participant in driving my wagon.  The three people in that boat who I am most suspicious of (looking at both days) are PPS, manda, and Eevee.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 02, 2012, 09:39:58 pm
...one was manda, who I trust. If I had to choose I'd say Eevee, but I trust him, too.

1st, why do you trust anyone?

2nd, assuming when you say "trust" you mean "find more town than others", why exactly, do you trust manda? I don't yet have a case against her but I sure don't trust her. Eevee looks pretty town to me although his extreme distancing from the Frisk wagon smells slightly scummy, that is, I don't fully trust him or anyone else for that matter.

(I am posting this despite being ninja'd by S_B.)

Seems to me trust would come easy when you know who is who and only Mafia knows that.

Fine, trust is a strong word in your opinion. I find both of their play to be pro-town. manda has said things that I agree with in the past, especially relating to S_B. Eevee was against the C_F wagon the whole time and when he has spoken has made sense.

So shoot, er lynch, me for finding all y'all to be town-aligned. Most people have done little to raise much suspicion to theirselves, in my opinion. Except S_B, who's strange play strikes me as too much for town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 02, 2012, 09:41:25 pm
I'm here... just not here.  I put most of my thought into BMMMM1 today.

I've got a research presentation tomorrow in front of my lab group, so I've been trying to be extra productive during the day... which coincidentally is when I most often am online.  I'll try to post more tomorrow morning/afternoon, but there's a good chance I won't do much until after 6:00 EST.

A quick few thoughts right now.  I'm fairly certain I've voiced these yesterday.  My wagon is very easy to drive as if it turns up VT lynch, the driver is not to blame but I am to blame.  I believe that 1 mafia member has been an active participant in driving my wagon.  The three people in that boat who I am most suspicious of (looking at both days) are PPS, manda, and Eevee.

To be honest, I, too, have been driving your wagon.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 02, 2012, 09:42:07 pm
Driving might be a harsh word. I have been suspicious of you, I should say.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 02, 2012, 10:31:04 pm
So Young_Nick, did I also do too little to raise your suspicion?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 02, 2012, 10:59:32 pm
I would need to re-read in order to make that assessment. Can't do that now as I am falling asleep at the keyboard. Generally, though, your D2 initiative is a good thing.

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 02, 2012, 11:01:16 pm
Is there a quick 'n' easy way to view posts by a single person within a thread? Or for that matter check post-count within a thread?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 02, 2012, 11:04:54 pm
hit print and then search for by: player_name
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 03, 2012, 12:10:02 am
Vote Count 2-2

shark_bait (1): Eevee
Young Nick (1): timchen

Not Voting {5}: Galzria, Young Nick, manda2014, shark_bait, pingpongsam

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 03, 2012, 02:08:16 am
So I was riiiight in the middle of typing up a post earlier when I realized I was running way late for like 3 different things.... anyway, here's my answer to timchen's poll:

(a) do you think robz was killed because scum thought he is PR?
I really doubt it. Like I said earlier, I didn't see anything that would have hinted at him being a PR. I think it's most likely that the mafia killed him because he is both vocal and experienced. That combined with his rather erratic (especially for him) play, made him someone who was both good at the game and impossible to predict, and that is dangerous for scum. I think they just wanted him out of the way and got lucky.

(b) how many scum do you think is on/off the wagon? 0-2, 1-1, or 2-0?
I'm really not sure. It would make sense to me, though, that they'd split up.

(c) in the case when there is at least one scum on the wagon, who do you think it's the most suspicious?
Ehhh, probably PPS? But I couldn't tell you why. He makes me wary for some reason but I can't put my finger on it and I'm certainly not suspicious enough to spend a whoooole lot of time looking into it.

(d) how about the people off wagon?
Eevee, for all the reasons I've previously stated. And for apologizing AGAIN.
I didnt need to distance myself from the Frisk wagon, if you read any of yesterday you'd know I was as far from it as one can possibly be. But my comments were obviously stupid and caused nothing but confusion and negative feelings among townies + gave mafia a way to accuse me. I regret them.

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 03, 2012, 03:32:29 am
Ok. If I didn't overlook something then only sharky hasn't replied. But I think the concensus is fairly obvious that we had a better chance to look for scum on the off-wagon side: among eevee, young_nick, and manda.

I have some reasons to believe that eevee is town. (I will reveal if necessary.)
Among the remaining two, Young_nick is consistently hedging, while manda speaks of on-the-look-reasonable things, but gives me a feeling of being a notch more stupid than what I initially perceived. Look at her recent reply! Sounds reasonable, but if you look into it, lacks substance.

So: FoS: manda

Before I switch my vote here, I'd also like everyone to weigh in if you do not mind, that who do you think is the scummier of the two. Manda or Young_Nick.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 03, 2012, 06:42:53 am
Manda or Young_Nick.

After reading through their post history I would have to pick manda.
Don't get me wrong, YN's behavior is very hedgy and reading through his posts has made me feel considerably more uneasy about him than before. I may have been largely ignoring him because he seems to post relatively often with lots of words but not much is being said.

manda, on the other hand, has been all the places scum should be; the Sharky wagon, implicating Robz and off the Frisk wagon. manda has done well to appear innocuous, lurk more and post touchy-feely based on the swing of the game despite her early claim that we should all go with our guts, remain wary and not let others' views bias us. She may calim this an OMGUS post because she implicated me but I find it anti-town to put a name on the table of suspicion without substantiating it with something from their post history. It screams deflection and a signals that they are avoiding putting too much of themselves out for scrutiny.

While I have reserved suspicions on other players and YN has also made the list I have considered the off/on wagon angle some more and I believe we are looking at 1-1 thus looking into the off-wagon pool I'd have to pick manda under the current circumstances.

Vote: manda

It must be noted that if manda is Mafia then Sharky is near exonerated. It is hard to believe manda would have stayed on a scum buddy's near lynch wagon so tenaciously. That leaves Galzria and timchen on the Frisk wagon in the 1-1 theory. Both of those guys give me huge town vibe which inclines me to look closer at their posts and/or consider the 0-2 angle. The idea that town lynched Frisk with 1 Mafia on board seems more palatable than the idea that Mafia watched with glee as town lynched Frisk all on their own. I am willing to reject that palatable thought if it means I am more successfully targeting Mafia, however.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 03, 2012, 07:34:16 am
I would love to respond to all of this. I just don't know when I will have the time. I might this afternoon, I might not. I might not be free until tomorrow, when I have the one-day cup and ZM1 and IRL stuff. But I do want to express my thoughts!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 03, 2012, 08:06:33 am
If i had to pick from nick and manda, i guess i'd pick nick.

@manda
Robz wasnt vocal. I have a reason to apologize, being cocky eas anti-town.

I dont know how what to think about PPS leading us like this. Its great if he is town, but that is not confirmed by any
means and we might have just been adviced to pick from two townies by a mafioso. But I do think they are ok targets to focus on.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 03, 2012, 09:19:12 am
If i had to pick from nick and manda, i guess i'd pick nick.

@manda
Robz wasnt vocal. I have a reason to apologize, being cocky eas anti-town.

I dont know how what to think about PPS leading us like this. Its great if he is town, but that is not confirmed by any
means and we might have just been adviced to pick from two townies by a mafioso. But I do think they are ok targets to focus on.

While I'm not arguing with the main thrust of your post I have to point out that my response is in direct relation to timchen's leading. I was only answering his question which should be evidenced by the truncated quote I began the post with.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 03, 2012, 09:34:13 am
Yeah eevee, you didn't look carefully enough or do you mean me leading instead?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 03, 2012, 09:55:49 am
Yeah eevee, you didn't look carefully enough or do you mean me leading instead?
Oh so very sorry, I read your post on phone just before falling asleep and forgot all about it or just missed it completely, dunno what it is but I certainly didnt realize you started the "which is scummier" line of discussion (which I for the record still think is a good way of approaching the problem of who to lynch today. It's just sadly possible the options we are given were chosen by scum and we are damn if we pick either of the candidates).
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 03, 2012, 10:20:39 am
For the record, I think it is extremely unlikely that both scum were on the wagon. I hope you agree. (If both are on the wagon the only possibility would be sharky+one of us. Not completely impossible, but currently sharky is lower on my list even than you.)

If you take this perspective, are you proposing we should suspect you more?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 03, 2012, 10:28:30 am
For the record, I think it is extremely unlikely that both scum were on the wagon. I hope you agree. (If both are on the wagon the only possibility would be sharky+one of us. Not completely impossible, but currently sharky is lower on my list even than you.)

If you take this perspective, are you proposing we should suspect you more?
Who is this directed to?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 03, 2012, 10:32:11 am
You! I mean, if you assume there is at least 1 scum off wagon, and you think we should look more than manda and young_nick, then the remaining option is you.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 03, 2012, 10:47:33 am
For the record, I think it is extremely unlikely that both scum were on the wagon. I hope you agree. (If both are on the wagon the only possibility would be sharky+one of us. Not completely impossible, but currently sharky is lower on my list even than you.)

If you take this perspective, are you proposing we should suspect you more?
I definitely never assumed there was "at least 1 scum off the wagon".
(b) how many scum do you think is on/off the wagon? 0-2, 1-1, or 2-0?
1-1 if I had to guess.
I assumed 1 scum on and off is the most probable outcome. I actually think 2 people on it is much more likely than 2 people off it. And I think I would even if I didnt know my own role.

That being said, as I earlier said, I think this is a good pair of people to analyze and look at. It was more of a general comment "even though it is nice someone shows initiative and leads the charge, we should be a little bit wary that someone might be scum" (because of how catastrophic that would be). It was not meant to discredit you or PPS. I seriously appreciate the effort and think this is a good path to go down.


The reason I think scum likely was voting for Frisk: Mafia wants townies gone. Things were sailing towards a nolynch. Voting for Frisk was not considered scummy at the time - most of the town was voting for him (my campaign to save him was unsuccessful). So, I do think shark_baits deserves some heat for casting the hammer on a townie lynch. And everyone else for voting for a townie. Whatever scummy manda and Nick have done, they have not done the ultimate scum thing to do. They havent participated in killing a townie (unless they did at night  :) ). So in that sense it is a little bit crazy to pick a lynchee from the people who DID NOT participate in lynching a townie yesterday.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 03, 2012, 11:02:57 am
But it doesn't make sense at all for the scum to kill Robz if they are both on the wagon. He is even a possible lynch target d2. Yeah, given that you are not scum I am almost certain that the two scum cannot be both on the wagon. If they were, I couldn't really see a reason for them not to kill you instead.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 03, 2012, 11:34:54 am
But it doesn't make sense at all for the scum to kill Robz if they are both on the wagon. He is even a possible lynch target d2. Yeah, given that you are not scum I am almost certain that the two scum cannot be both on the wagon. If they were, I couldn't really see a reason for them not to kill you instead.

Excellent point. So, 1-1 probably then? I cant fathom manda and nick both being scum because nolynch was so close and yet neither voted yesterday.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 03, 2012, 09:06:41 pm
seems lots of people are absent today...

For now:Vote: manda for reasons I've stated.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 03, 2012, 09:42:23 pm
Finally seeing Batman tonight! In other news, I won't be able to post for three hours, and thus won't get a long post in tonight.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 03, 2012, 09:53:37 pm
Am I the only one in this game that hasn't seen batman?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 04, 2012, 01:08:10 am
Vote Count 2-3

shark_bait (1): Eevee
manda2014 (2): pingpongsam, timchen

Not Voting {4}: Galzria, Young Nick, manda2014, shark_bait

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 04, 2012, 03:15:30 am
Am I the only one in this game that hasn't seen batman?
Yes.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 04, 2012, 09:50:15 am
Galzria has been 2 days absent, can we get a mod prod?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 04, 2012, 10:32:22 am
Galzria has been 2 days absent, can we get a mod prod?

It's not a 2-day absence that triggers a prod.  It's a full 48-hour absence, and that hasn't happened yet.  His last post here was Thursday at 8:18 p.m. EDT.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 04, 2012, 11:48:46 am
Galzria has been 2 days absent, can we get a mod prod?

It's not a 2-day absence that triggers a prod.  It's a full 48-hour absence, and that hasn't happened yet.  His last post here was Thursday at 8:18 p.m. EDT.

Well, as far as what to do next, I'm a bit torn. Mafia know that if a mislynch occurs today, the town is likely down to lylo (3 town, 2 mafia).

I see two paths available to me: YN (and his partner is likely Manda or Timchen) is the first - as he was my most suspicious (with Eevee close behind) - but with PPS saying "no Eevee", that choice would be clear.

The second path is PPS (with Eevee/Manda/(MAYBE Timchen) as his likely partner). PPS played an awesome job as a PR in M-VI. He was stealthy and productive. He was, well, simply amazing. That said, his claim her that Eevee is innocent and we should focus on YN/Manda (with a soft-claim too?) is just... Very forward of him for a town PR. Almost too forward.

I just can't swallow PPS's softclaim. Not after I've seen him so expertly play a PR.

Vote: PPS

Here's my thought process of the Mafia thought process on this:

PPS/Eevee are Goon/Rolecop. There are 7 town to start the game, 5 left now. They probably know one of us is Vanilla after a Night investigation. That person is probably me after I refused to claim D1 (this IS a claim now). So PPS soft-claims Cop as the Mafia rolecop, hinting his partner is in the clear. He doesn't full-claim because at this time he doesn't want to risk counter-claim (not terrible if it happens, but not great either).

He then points to two unknown townies, one of whom gets led off to lynch (perfect for Eevee to be the one to point this out "PPS is kinda leading, which makes me a little uncomfortable" - it's a distancing statement that works well after your scummate has just "cleared" you). So you hedge back and forth, and eventually decide on one to lynch. The confused townies support this because, well, they're suspicious of those two anyway.

Night comes, and there are 4 town left. They lynch one (not the first investigated guy) and investigate another. Now if they haven't found a possible Cop, there's only 1 person it could be. So PPS opens D3 with a full-claim as cop, saying he's found scum.

With or without a counterclaim, it's a big debate - very likely ending in his favor (seeing as he'll have one person to back-up his claim). Since it's lylo, a mislynch there is game-over, and even if you lynch him there, you go to D4 with 2 town, 1 scum. Given that you can bet his teammate bussed him for town cred, it's still highly likely Mafia wins.

So: Given my success as Mafia in M-II following a very similar ploy (my partner, Robz, claimed Doctor D3), I've seen how successful and difficult this is to beat. I also know PPS to be a MUCH more careful PR player, I have to go with my gut on this one.

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 04, 2012, 12:29:48 pm
Explain lylo please. Does this mean one bad vote ends the game? 3-2 town-Mafia or 2-1?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 04, 2012, 12:35:27 pm
Explain lylo please. Does this mean one bad vote ends the game? 3-2 town-Mafia or 2-1?

Yes. Lylo - lynch or lose. You must lynch, and you must lynch correctly.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 04, 2012, 01:42:56 pm
@Galz: please tell me why you think eevee is more suspicious than manda or Young_Nick.

Also... I am not sure you read it correctly... I think I said first that we should focus on YN and manda then PPS sorta agreed. Not sure it's fair to say he's leading this.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 04, 2012, 01:45:12 pm
phonelurking so cant write a big post but i didnt think PPS softclaimed, what about others?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 04, 2012, 01:46:41 pm
Vote Count 2-4

shark_bait (1): Eevee
manda2014 (2): pingpongsam, timchen
pingpongsam (1): Galzria

Not Voting {3}: Young Nick, manda2014, shark_bait

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 04, 2012, 01:52:29 pm
I don't recall PPS softclaiming, but timchen did.

quote author=timchen link=topic=3411.msg76366#msg76366 date=1343979149]
I have some reasons to believe that eevee is town. (I will reveal if necessary.)
[/quote]
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 04, 2012, 01:53:09 pm
I have some reasons to believe that eevee is town. (I will reveal if necessary.)

fixed
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 04, 2012, 01:54:17 pm
Fair enough for giving me suspicion (a vote actually) for putting Eevee in the "safe" bin. I suppose I could see how that might be interpeted as a softclaim.

Knowing my true role the rest is just laughable conjecture. If Eevee is Mafia he's laughing at it too. If Eevee is Town, he's still laughing.

Now, to attack the argument itself. I placed you in the same "safe" bin as Eevee. Is this not an equal softclaim? Would this not be an idiotic play on your part if I were actually the Town cop (assuming you are town)? Your whole argument comes off, to me, like you might be the Mafia Rolecop.

The argument was complete nonsense in the amount presupposed and scummy in the fact that there was never left an opportunity for me or anyone else implicated to answer any questions in rebuttal. Pure speculation and leading.

If you wanted out fo the "safe" bin then you got it; FoS: Galzria (god, I love doing that knowing it bothers people).
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 04, 2012, 01:56:53 pm
I don't recall PPS softclaiming, but timchen did.

quote author=timchen link=topic=3411.msg76366#msg76366 date=1343979149]
I have some reasons to believe that eevee is town. (I will reveal if necessary.)
[/quote]

... Wow, you're right. Well, it doesn't change my analysis entirely. Unvote Timchen could very easily be pulling the same ploy that I felt PPS was... Except I'm not as confident that he wouldn't play a PR this way.

(I apologize to PPS for the accusation) - Now I have to decide if my suspicions of YN outweigh the idea that Tim may be leading the town on as suggested PPS was doing above.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 04, 2012, 02:00:13 pm
oh, that softclaim, yeah um, I would not have done that.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 04, 2012, 02:02:47 pm
oh, that softclaim, yeah um, I would not have done that.

You see my suspicion then, thinking it was you who had said that? ;D You were too masterful in M-VI to be that... Blunt.

But it wasn't you! And... Now I have a real dilemma on my hands over how I feel a Town Timchen would play vs a Mafia Timchen.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 04, 2012, 02:06:54 pm
@manda: To clarify, I was not soft-claiming there. I have (logical, not definite) reasons to believe that eevee is not scum currently but I think it is better not to reveal it yet.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 04, 2012, 02:13:47 pm
Does anyone else find it odd that timchen tells us he has these reasons for things but then won't tell us what they are until later? He did this early D1 with Frisk, if you recall.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 04, 2012, 02:21:00 pm
I am akways suspicious of claims to know something that is to be revealed later. If it is truly useful information then Town can use it ASAP. If there really is a good reason to keep the information under wraps then there is just as good a reason to not publicly claim to know something that you are not telling.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 04, 2012, 02:22:21 pm
Does anyone else find it odd that timchen tells us he has these reasons for things but then won't tell us what they are until later? He did this early D1 with Frisk, if you recall.

Yes. And I don't buy that wasn't a softclaim. That's exactly what he wanted us to think it was. Look at the way it was posted. If it wasn't a softclaim then he is DEFINITELY leading the town.

I have to think then that it WAS - and furthemore, while Tim hates secrecy, he's not stupid. He knows that sort of statement would get read as a softclaim. As a town PR, he would know that he was setting himself to be NK'd, as there can't be a Doctor AND Cop left.

I just cannot see that statement is made from a town player. It's misleading, and if he has nothing concrete on Eevee (an investigation), it's just as likely to be wrong.

My analysis for that claim (regardless of it being PPS or Tim) stands, and it's enough to get a vote from me. Especially after he claims it wasn't a claim at all

Vote: Timchen
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 04, 2012, 02:23:04 pm
Does anyone else find it odd that timchen tells us he has these reasons for things but then won't tell us what they are until later? He did this early D1 with Frisk, if you recall.

Yes, I find it weird. Having said that, different people have different playing styles. I think it would make sense for him to explain these reasons if Eevee were under fire, but still, it doesn't make sense to hold them close to his chest. It is delaying the inevitable.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 04, 2012, 02:26:13 pm
Even if it is what he says it is, it still seems to me to be, at best, really bad town play. It's one thing to have a hunch but not say anything until you get more evidence. It's another thing ENTIRELY to SAY you "know" something but then just leave it hanging like that with no explanation. All it does is cause confusion. And stated like that it OBVIOUSLY sounds like a soft claim. There's no way he wouldn't have seen that when he was posting it.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 04, 2012, 02:26:59 pm
@Galzria: Note that he did the same thing D1 despite having no way of having concrete evidence. One might say it's a softclaim, but I see it as an unorthodox style of play.

While you are not trying to lead the town, it is worth noting that you were silent for 36+ hours and then come in calling out everybody. Me, PPS, timchen, a bit of manda. Just not too much on S_B or Eevee. What are your thoughts on those two?

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 04, 2012, 02:28:50 pm
I find this analagous to S_B's too obvious scum-tell back in D1. You guys let S_B off the hook because he is a n00b, but timchen doesn't get such an easy pass. I think it's fairer to be consistent, and not treat S_B as if he is totally inexperienced.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 04, 2012, 02:29:59 pm
@Galzria: Note that he did the same thing D1 despite having no way of having concrete evidence. One might say it's a softclaim, but I see it as an unorthodox style of play.

While you are not trying to lead the town, it is worth noting that you were silent for 36+ hours and then come in calling out everybody. Me, PPS, timchen, a bit of manda. Just not too much on S_B or Eevee. What are your thoughts on those two?

SB I think is town. Eevee I've stated multiple times I think is the second most likely scum here (go back and read my posts).

While you're going back, you'll also notice that I haven't called out Manda (as you claim), and only PPS because I made a mistake (so you're wrong there too).
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 04, 2012, 02:40:39 pm
Alright, will you explain why no lynch is better.  I've put my case down on why a lynch is better than no lynch in this game.  I have seen no one argue why it would be better to go no lynch.  If someone has something, I'd be interested in hearing it.

FYI, I did not know that CF was town. 

Now put yourself in my shoes.  You play very scummy mafia throughout the beginning of the game and end the day with red flags flags going around on all but 3 people.  Those people are Galz, Robz and CF.  (Read CF and Robz post to verify if you want, I will tell you that they are there.  Galz, feel free to counter if I've misinterpreted you).  You want a lynch because you realize that you still get 2 more chances at lynching regardless of whether you no lynch or not.  So you decide to lynch 1 of the 3 people defending you as town.  Now it's night time, you need a night kill.  You think to yourself, let's kill Robz because he is ANOTHER person who was defending me.  Now you have just put yourself in a position where the majority of the town is willing and ready to kill you.

Okay, time to step out of my shoes.  I know what you are thinking about right now.

WIFOM



Galz, if I'm wrong about your D1 assessment, feel free to counter.

Now why in the world as a mafia member would I kill off 2 of the 3 people defending me?

Think about that.

See, I don't agree with this post. It is true that those three (more or less) were the only ones actively defending S_B in D1. However, not many people were very active in their campaign against him. People say that someone should investigate over-night and make him a D2 target if the results are that he is Mafia.

This strategy clearly doesn't work so well when our Jailkeeper is dead and we know there is only a 1/3 chance that we have a Cop.

Come D2 and the S_B train has blown over. He doesn't take much heat. He may have killed one of his only believers, but no one really cares, either way. If he's Mafia, he might as well kill anyone but his partner as long as it ensures safety in the future, which killing Robz has done for him.

He has been relatively absent. His only D2 posts are defending his actions (including the quoted post) and explaining how IRL work would prevent him from posting much until yesterday at 6PM. He has said nothing since then, despite there being a lot of time and chatter.

He is laying low, though I can forgive him for this if he has actually been busy IRL. However, he has not really added anything to the game so far. He has been suspicious of no one.

I think he is playing Mafia in a bold manner. I still want to hear him talk about others he's wary of.

Vote: Shark_Bait
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 04, 2012, 02:42:01 pm
@Galzria: Note that he did the same thing D1 despite having no way of having concrete evidence. One might say it's a softclaim, but I see it as an unorthodox style of play.

While you are not trying to lead the town, it is worth noting that you were silent for 36+ hours and then come in calling out everybody. Me, PPS, timchen, a bit of manda. Just not too much on S_B or Eevee. What are your thoughts on those two?

SB I think is town. Eevee I've stated multiple times I think is the second most likely scum here (go back and read my posts).

While you're going back, you'll also notice that I haven't called out Manda (as you claim), and only PPS because I made a mistake (so you're wrong there too).

Yeah, that is all true upon re-reading.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 04, 2012, 02:50:03 pm
@manda: Well, I can explain the d1 frisk case, in case you forget. My content basically is that from frisk's theory of forcing-to-claim I am pretty sure he is not PR. So if he was forced to claim and claimed PR, he must be mafia. Apparently this logic does not work if I put out my argument that he cannot be PR ahead. That is why I am pushing the wagon and "hiding the reasons". Strictly speaking you can see I am actually not hiding the reason as the reason is only valid when he claimed PR.

For the current case on eevee I don't have as good a reason not to reveal. I have to say I really haven't thought of the possibility of that being viewed as a soft claim. The reason I do not want to reveal is just that I want to see how scum will respond.

In all seriousness, (ignoring my argument about eevee for now) I think everyone agrees that there should be 1 scum between eevee, YN and manda, just based on the fact that with 2 scums on the wagon it is near impossible for the scum to choose to kill Robz. So especially for manda, if you knew you were town, you should focus your scum search on eevee and YN. For this reason I am very suspicious you are scum.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 04, 2012, 04:00:59 pm
Vote Count 2-5

shark_bait (2): Eevee, Young Nick
manda2014 (2): pingpongsam, timchen
timchen (1): Galzria

Not Voting {2}: manda2014, shark_bait

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 04, 2012, 04:05:15 pm
Volt's count is wrong. It is L-1 on Shark_Bait since Galzria voted him.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 04, 2012, 04:08:21 pm
Volt's count is wrong. It is L-1 on Shark_Bait since Galzria voted him.

I... Did?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 04, 2012, 04:13:14 pm
No, I interpolated yours and Nick's posts. My apologies, Volt's count is correct.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 04, 2012, 07:16:58 pm
Bump!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 04, 2012, 09:42:18 pm
@Young_Nick: how do you think about manda?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 04, 2012, 09:51:33 pm
On now, am starting to catch up on everything right.  Starting with D2 stuff, and then I plan to look back through D1. 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 04, 2012, 10:00:00 pm
Glad to see you online! After you finish reviewing can you please weigh in on Manda and Young_Nick?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 04, 2012, 10:07:31 pm
Will do, it might take me awhile as there is a lot to do.  I'll try to stay focused and present my thoughts within the next couple of hours.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 04, 2012, 10:40:34 pm
@Young_Nick: how do you think about manda?

Well, throughout D1 she mostly voiced opinions that I agreed with. Looking back on many of her most recent posts, I see her hedging a little bit and not adding too much of substance, not all too different than S_B. The difference here is that while I feel like S_B might be avoiding lots of posting, manda has not shied away from her opinions. It's just that she only seems to examine at surface level. Until she looks deeper than that, I don't give her words that much importance. It might be a WIFOM trick to slip under the radar, but I think it's just inadvertent shallow reading.

I am not sure if this is lynch worthy, but it is the read I have on her. Generally, her play seems like uninspiring town play. However, I do feel like it's town play. If she were Mafia, she would probably be throwing a bit more dirt onto other people for slightly deeper reasons than she has provided so far.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 04, 2012, 10:43:51 pm
Glad to see you online! After you finish reviewing can you please weigh in on Manda and Young_Nick?

Why just us two? You've probably stated this somewhere else, but there is no Eevee here and, in general, there has not been that much discussion of wagoners. I'm not saying we should be voting for people on the wagon, but I still think that discussing them is important. Kind of like a, "if I were to vote for someone who voted C_F, I would vote ____."

I still stand by S_B.

Also, I want to hear from PPS. It's been a while.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 04, 2012, 11:14:55 pm
Well, on the wagon there are 5 people. Robz is dead. The remaining are shark, Galz, PPS, and me. I am pretty convinced that there should be one scum among the four people, but currently they all give me a town read.

On the other hand, there are three people off the wagon. It is hard to imagine that with 2 scums on the wagon the scum still chose to kill Robz. So there should be at least one scum among the three. As I said, I have some logical reason to believe eevee is not scum. (Again, don't take me wrong, I am not claiming anything.) And that gives me the chance of at least finding 1 scum out of 2 people. Even if you include eevee it gives one out of three.

Try to think this way: why did the scum not kill eevee? eevee is probably the player with strongest town tell after frisk flipped VT. If he is dead and flipped town too, we then do not have any good idea among the rest of players. Of course, the loophole of this argument is that there will then be only two people off the wagon, and if we believe that scum will hedge then we will definitely find one scum. So, Robz's death instead of eevee suggests us to look at the off wagon people.

But of course one simple reason that eevee is not dead is because he is scum. But then you have to explain why he does not want frisk to be lynched at all. And if you go further you may start to see the reason that I am not talking about...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 04, 2012, 11:41:44 pm
Try to think this way: why did the scum not kill eevee? eevee is probably the player with strongest town tell after frisk flipped VT. If he is dead and flipped town too, we then do not have any good idea among the rest of players. Of course, the loophole of this argument is that there will then be only two people off the wagon, and if we believe that scum will hedge then we will definitely find one scum. So, Robz's death instead of eevee suggests us to look at the off wagon people.

Ignoring the little "hint" you give us, let's look at this quoted part. Why kill robz? If two are on the wagon, it seems so unfathomably bad to kill robz, yes. Not to sound all WIFOM-y, but maybe it's the Mafia strategy to do something so terrifically stupid that as a result they are in the clear. Not even something that n00b Mafia would do. They kill a member of their own wagon, making it 2/4. Now, no rightful Mafia pair would do that in their right mind. They must be divided 1-1, or even 0-2 to do such a bold move. It takes heat off of them.

Maybe if they convince town to lynch off the wagon it puts them in a bad light, but still, a D3 lylo is good for them no matter what. They can even double-hammer and maybe get away with it now that Jailkeeper is gone. D3 lylo is a scary prospect for town. No one wants to vote, even if people look scummy as hell.

----

I am not saying this is what happened. But this could be. Let's not ignore this case. We might be walking into lylo if we don't seriously take a look at at least one or two of those four.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 05, 2012, 12:08:48 am
Basically what you are saying is WIFOM. I suggest (if you haven't) you can read a bit what ehunt wrote about it.

Yes, it is possible. But the scum can also do lots of different things. Without hurting their own chances. Why would they bother trying this chancy strategy, when they (suppose that both are on the wagon) can, say just NK eevee and watch us questioning the remaining two off-wagonee?

I think it also makes sense to look carefully into the cases if indeed that is the case. If I put myself in your shoes, what I would see as a possible pair among the wagon? (Galzria, PPS) or (Galzria, timchen) is quite unlikely as Galz directly accused us. So it is probably (PPS, timchen) or (Sharkbait, X). The former case is really a gambit of us as we appear to agree a lot in this game. The latter is a bit weird as X would not want Sharkbait to be in the hammering position at all.

And of course because I know I am town so I only need to look at the latter cases. I found this rather unlikely.

The bottomline is I think the probability of 1-1 is really much higher than 2-0. As long as there is at least one scum off wagon we lose nothing looking closer there.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 05, 2012, 01:01:32 am
I'm feeling very lost with this.  If I seem incilned to trust someone I think well they're just trying to get me to trust them.  I'm curious as to what logical path tc could have for trusting eevee.  Eevee is one of person who' is high up on my suspician list.  When thinking about manda, she seems to be playing a very safe game.  Whether it is because she is scum or because she doesn't want to cause a mislynch... I don't know.  Galz and tc for some reason are flying under my radar.  I don't know if that's because they are town, or because they are doin a really good job of playing scum.  All in all, WIFOM is wreaking havoc with my brain right now and I'm having a difficult time rationalizing decisions of scum/not scum.  Sorry for the incoherance of this post.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 05, 2012, 01:15:33 am
@shark, so why do you think mafia eevee so desperately wants us to step away from frisk lynch? Or just, what do you find eevee scummy over all?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 05, 2012, 01:23:23 am
@shark, so why do you think mafia eevee so desperately wants us to step away from frisk lynch? Or just, what do you find eevee scummy over all?

Because Mafia Eevee has no reason to get on-board? The town was going to lynch at the deadline (they always do), and the only two wagons that had any life at that time were CF and me. As both of us are town, why should Eevee bother doing the scummy thing of moving wagons to force a lynch that was highly likely to occur anyway?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 05, 2012, 01:37:19 am
But this is WIFOM. In the end no matter what he did (getting on the wagon or not) you can form a case to accuse him.   I don't see how this makes him any scummier than the two other off-wagonee.

What I see is that mafia eevee has no reason to express strong opinion. For one thing, in the slim chance if another townee wagon gets off, he will have a harder time switching back to get frisk. (This is not my hidden reasoning, however.)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 05, 2012, 01:41:30 am
While you are here Galz, how do you like manda?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 05, 2012, 09:17:39 am
@shark, so why do you think mafia eevee so desperately wants us to step away from frisk lynch? Or just, what do you find eevee scummy over all?

Because Mafia Eevee has no reason to get on-board? The town was going to lynch at the deadline (they always do), and the only two wagons that had any life at that time were CF and me. As both of us are town, why should Eevee bother doing the scummy thing of moving wagons to force a lynch that was highly likely to occur anyway?
Hmm, were you online at the time? Because I definitely thought it was going to be a nolynch. Thinking I somehow "knew" Frisk was going to get lynched definitely explains why you are suspicious of me, but it's just not a correct assumption.

My strongest townread today is definitely timchen. I still think manda is likely town too, although less so than I did when I said this last time. It has been said that mafia galzria is never sloppy, but he is starting to become my suspect #1 none the less.
Everyone, did you think yesterday was going to end in a nolynch or did you think someone was going to hammer in the end? Especially the people who were online when the actual hammer dropped (not too long before the deadline I think?).
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 05, 2012, 09:49:21 am
I was under the impression that manda would have come in and hammer if nobody else did. But I would say it looked more certain from the wagoner perspective though (somebody not on the wagon would come in vs. somebody not on the wagon and not me would come in).

So eevee, are you hinting you suspect Galz/YN pairing?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 05, 2012, 10:08:09 am
I was under the impression that manda would have come in and hammer if nobody else did. But I would say it looked more certain from the wagoner perspective though (somebody not on the wagon would come in vs. somebody not on the wagon and not me would come in).

So eevee, are you hinting you suspect Galz/YN pairing?

I tend to have a hard enough time finding mafia, let alone pairs.. But lets just say I wouldnt rule that out.  :)

The fact I thought we were going to nolynch yesterday might really cloud my judgement about things here though (if others didnt feel the same way that is).

It is still possible mafia had some reason to kill Robz we are not seeing though. I really dont feel good about not looking for lynch targets from the guys that lynched a townie yesterday but rather concentrating on the guys that didnt participate in said lynch, even if I do understand timchens arguments for doing so.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 05, 2012, 10:28:07 am
My strongest townread today is definitely timchen. I still think manda is likely town too, although less so than I did when I said this last time. It has been said that mafia galzria is never sloppy, but he is starting to become my suspect #1 none the less.

Does this mean you think I am Mafia? You put manda in the clear, and yourself, too, I assume. Or are you a 2-Mafia-on-the-wagon type of guy?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 05, 2012, 11:02:33 am
My strongest townread today is definitely timchen. I still think manda is likely town too, although less so than I did when I said this last time. It has been said that mafia galzria is never sloppy, but he is starting to become my suspect #1 none the less.

Does this mean you think I am Mafia? You put manda in the clear, and yourself, too, I assume. Or are you a 2-Mafia-on-the-wagon type of guy?
I tried to explain this a bit in the part of the post you deleted from the quote.
I dont think we should lock ourselves to thinking "x mafia on the wagon, x mafia off it". Mafia might have had some reason for killing Robz we are not seeing. If I had to quess, I would say 1-1 and I think manda-nick scumpair is super unlikely, but I wouldnt really be surprised if they were both on it and just had some other reason to kill robz (maybe they somehow guessed he had a role, maybe they felt he would come after them day2).
That being said, I do suspect you a good bit, because as timchen said - one explanation for killing robz might be one of the mafia partners was not on the wagon (and I have a slight town read on manda + a very strong town read on myself).

I actually feel this town has a decent chance at hitting mafia today, not a lot of power roles left to claim + yesterdays wagon was pretty informational (to me anyways, maybe not to others as some people seem to think I'm close to #1 suspect even though all I did yesterday was trying to save a townie from getting lynched).
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 05, 2012, 11:30:20 am
My strongest townread today is definitely timchen. I still think manda is likely town too, although less so than I did when I said this last time. It has been said that mafia galzria is never sloppy, but he is starting to become my suspect #1 none the less.

Does this mean you think I am Mafia? You put manda in the clear, and yourself, too, I assume. Or are you a 2-Mafia-on-the-wagon type of guy?
I tried to explain this a bit in the part of the post you deleted from the quote.
I dont think we should lock ourselves to thinking "x mafia on the wagon, x mafia off it". Mafia might have had some reason for killing Robz we are not seeing. If I had to quess, I would say 1-1 and I think manda-nick scumpair is super unlikely, but I wouldnt really be surprised if they were both on it and just had some other reason to kill robz (maybe they somehow guessed he had a role, maybe they felt he would come after them day2).
That being said, I do suspect you a good bit, because as timchen said - one explanation for killing robz might be one of the mafia partners was not on the wagon (and I have a slight town read on manda + a very strong town read on myself).

I actually feel this town has a decent chance at hitting mafia today, not a lot of power roles left to claim + yesterdays wagon was pretty informational (to me anyways, maybe not to others as some people seem to think I'm close to #1 suspect even though all I did yesterday was trying to save a townie from getting lynched).

I understand this. What I am asking is that do you find my play scummy? If so, can you point towards certain parts? Or is it just that you think that you and manda are town, and thus, as a result, I must be scum.

Currently, it looks like you see me as Mafia because I am the only one left off of the wagon after you and manda. Is there anything else? That is the question I am trying to get at.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 05, 2012, 11:32:31 am
@eevee: I would like to know why you read manda more town than Young_Nick.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 05, 2012, 11:35:10 am
@eevee: I would like to know why you read manda more town than Young_Nick.

This.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 05, 2012, 11:51:37 am
Oh sorry I misunderstood your question Nick. Yes, its mostly just process of elimination. "If there is one scum off the wagon, I think its more likely to be Nick than manda". Also, the way people tend to play mafia (at least in the ~5 games I've followed here) has been sort of staying back and not doing anything too special, posting a moderate amount. I think that describes your play in this game pretty well, would you agree?

@timchen (and PPE: apparently Nick too)

Manda's first post of day2:

Okay. Lots to respond to here. Heeeere we go.

Concerning the supposed Robz softclaim, I never noticed anything that made him even seem like a PR, much less an actual softclaim. As far as him saying "don't vote PR," how does that make HIM seem like a PR? Like YN, this theory seems more like confirmation bias to me than anyone else. Obviously we don't want to lynch a PR. Anyone could have said that, and I doubt that's what made the mafia decide to make him their NK. The most plausible theory to me is that they're trying to get rid of the experienced players. This argument makes even more sense to me if one of the mafia IS an experienced player.

That being said, I'd say my suspicion at this point is mostly on Eevee. I don't have any solid analysis yet, I just feel like something about the way he's posting feels off. An example would be him getting really defensive in #733; there's no need to be very defensive if you're town. Like I said, though, I don't have any solid analysis yet, so who knows? My suspicion may change after I go through all his posts tomorrow. But for time being, my suspicion rests there.

More and more, Sharky is feeling like town to me. There was so much suspicion on him yestergameday that if he were mafia I feel like he would have altered his play style somewhat, and it still feels the same to me.

Bolding mine to illustrate the part of the post I'm talking about.

Okay, so, she thinks I'm scummy and shark_bait towny. The general consensus around town day1 was certainly more like the opposite, especially after Frisk flipped town (sharkie was voting for him, I was indomitably trying to save him). So, if she was mafia, I would assume she would go after easier targets. Mafia wants to pick someone they know town already suspects, and try to form a wagon. At the time (this was before Galzria and a few others said they think I'm scummy) I dont think manda saw much of a chance to build an Eevee-wagon, which leads me to think she genuinely thought I was scummy and is not a lying mafia. She didnt even mention anyone else, so it did not feel to me like a mafia trying to lead town to a mislynch but rather like a townie in the dark trying her hardest to think about the game and form an idea of whats going on.

Obviously not like a bulletproof read or anything like that, but a read none the less. Would others agree with the thought process?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 05, 2012, 11:56:29 am
good point. I probably need to reevaluate...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 05, 2012, 12:41:51 pm
Oh sorry I misunderstood your question Nick. Yes, its mostly just process of elimination. "If there is one scum off the wagon, I think its more likely to be Nick than manda". Also, the way people tend to play mafia (at least in the ~5 games I've followed here) has been sort of staying back and not doing anything too special, posting a moderate amount. I think that describes your play in this game pretty well, would you agree?

See the first part, the POE, doesn't feel right to me. It is not reason enough. I understand your second point, though. The moderate posting, without anything too crazy. Maybe you guys call it hedging, but I am trying to be careful. My thinking of it is that I am not trying to accuse people who even might be town, because I don't want to commit to a cause that I am not fully behind. Maybe staying on S_B's wagon looks like basic Mafia play because he is an easy target, but I think his play is a level deeper than that. And it is not like he is a trendy vote-ee seeing as you and me are the only two to vote for him.

I probably should post about the relationship you and manda have, but that would require some re-reading prior to doing so.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 05, 2012, 12:44:58 pm
Call it a placeholder post if you must. My vote stands on manda for reasons posted earlier. I am following today's progress with consideration.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 05, 2012, 12:47:47 pm
To clarify about the POE:

As timchen pointed out, unless mafia had some hidden reason to kill robz (and I have twice now suspected they might have, but no one has offered any explanations yet. And it might be something we cant figure out without mafia help, which is sad), it makes sense one of them was off the wagon because they killed someone who was on it, and it would be surprising if they wanted to narrow that field if they were both on it.

So that is the thought process that leads me to think there is a good chance there is one mafia off the wagon, and since I know it isnt me and I have the earlier presented read on manda and your play fits my standard mafia profile, I am suspecting you. Your behaviour during this discussion has looked towny to me.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 05, 2012, 12:48:23 pm
Call it a placeholder post if you must. My vote stands on manda for reasons posted earlier. I am following today's progress with consideration.
What do you think of my case for manda being town?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 05, 2012, 01:00:28 pm
To clarify about the POE:

As timchen pointed out, unless mafia had some hidden reason to kill robz (and I have twice now suspected they might have, but no one has offered any explanations yet. And it might be something we cant figure out without mafia help, which is sad), it makes sense one of them was off the wagon because they killed someone who was on it, and it would be surprising if they wanted to narrow that field if they were both on it.

So that is the thought process that leads me to think there is a good chance there is one mafia off the wagon, and since I know it isnt me and I have the earlier presented read on manda and your play fits my standard mafia profile, I am suspecting you. Your behaviour during this discussion has looked towny to me.

I understand what you are saying here. However, I notice that you call manda's play to be pro-town, and now mine is, too. I don't know if you are trying to buddy-up to us, but you realize that only leads us to you, or people who were on the wagon.

It seems like this could be a sly trick to get me and manda even more riled up about looking to people on the wagon, along with your little hints towards it in earlier posts. I don't actually find this scummy; it seems a bit too blatant. I see it more as all three of us being wary of each other, but even more wary of the wagoners who have taken relatively little heat today.

I just want to say that we need to be careful about buddying up. I appreciate your analysis, but obviously even if I have a town read on most of you, I can't consider any of you a friend. I think this especially goes for the three of us off of the wagon.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 05, 2012, 01:16:27 pm
I always thought pro-town meant "benefits the town". Is it actually the same as "probtown"?

Manda's play (or rather that one post) just looked to me like something a townie would do. You are still at the top of my suspect list, but I dont want to be one-sided and unfair, during this discussion I think you have acted like I would expect you to act as town. Either of you might still be mafia, I just call them as I see them.

And I definitely think it is possible both of you are town too (and I dont think that would mean I misread my own pm or something). I am writing my thoughts as they come to my head, trying to think of all the scenarios. If nothing else, you can read back what I thought about things if I dont live to see tomorrow.

So: If mafia had no hidden reason to kill robz, I think its most likely it was because one of them was off the wagon. I've given all my reads on both you and manda now, and I think those reads point out to you being scum more likely than her. I dont have any investigative results or spider-powers, just my logic and observations.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 05, 2012, 03:37:48 pm
Well, it's fine that you see me as scummier than manda. There isn't much I can do about it, I figure. You aren't pointing towards specifics, but just general feel. I'm not saying that's a bad thing, but I hope that that alone isn't enough to vote for me. Or maybe you can vote for me for that reason, but that's not enough for multiple people to vote me up to L-1 or anything like that.

Also, you are most likely right in pro-town vs. probtown. I just kind of assumed they were the same; I haven't read all the lingo. I use them interchangeably, but I guess I'll stop that from here on forward.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 05, 2012, 03:43:48 pm
It's more than just a "general feel". Manda's suspicion of me felt towny, your general play style has fitted the usual mafia profile this far. Those are specific reasons. Hard to get much more concrete on day 2 without investigative results, especially considering your voting behavior is essentially identical.
Others feel Galzria is town here?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 05, 2012, 04:03:40 pm
No.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 05, 2012, 04:04:21 pm
Unvote for now just in case eevee is right on target and a quick hammer is possible.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 05, 2012, 06:07:55 pm
Unvote for now just in case eevee is right on target and a quick hammer is possible.
Humm... you had your vote on Galzria and it was the only vote on him?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 05, 2012, 06:09:34 pm
Finally back online and there's a lot of new stuff, so I'll try to respond to everything, but probably in several shorter posts rather than one long one.

Everyone, did you think yesterday was going to end in a nolynch or did you think someone was going to hammer in the end? Especially the people who were online when the actual hammer dropped (not too long before the deadline I think?).

I was pretty certain someone was going to hammer in the end. To my knowledge, we haven't had a D1 no-lynch on f.ds so far, and I really doubted we'd start with this game, to be honest. I don't like the idea of a D1 no-lynch, because it gives the mafia a headstart without providing the town with a whole lot of information. I wasn't online when the hammer dropped, but I was back online before the deadline and I would have hammered if I needed to.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 05, 2012, 06:10:47 pm
Unvote for now just in case eevee is right on target and a quick hammer is possible.
Humm... you had your vote on Galzria and it was the only vote on him?

Pretty sure Timchen's vote was on me...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 05, 2012, 06:15:37 pm
Eevee keeps restating the fact that all of D1 he was "just trying to save a townie," so he's not sure why there's any suspicion on him. While it's true that he pushed to save Frisk all day, how do we know that he didn't do that just so he could point to it D2 to show how pro-town he is? As others have stated, it was pretty clear to me that someone was going to hammer. Eevee didn't need to jump on the wagon when others were pushing it and chances of a no-lynch were slim.

That being said, I would like to hear timchen's secret reasoning before I settle on Eevee for a vote.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 05, 2012, 06:16:44 pm
I'm gonna be out for several hours doing family stuff. I'll keep up from my phone and maybe post some short stuff if I get a chance.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 05, 2012, 06:55:07 pm
Eevee keeps restating the fact that all of D1 he was "just trying to save a townie," so he's not sure why there's any suspicion on him. While it's true that he pushed to save Frisk all day, how do we know that he didn't do that just so he could point to it D2 to show how pro-town he is? As others have stated, it was pretty clear to me that someone was going to hammer. Eevee didn't need to jump on the wagon when others were pushing it and chances of a no-lynch were slim.

That being said, I would like to hear timchen's secret reasoning before I settle on Eevee for a vote.
As I earlier said, I definitely didnt think someone was going to hammer if I didnt. I was quite sure we were going to have a nolynch actually, I remember being proud for making it happen (when the only other option was a Frisk lynch obviously).

I think saying "I dont think arguing for Frisk's life yesterday clears Eevee completely" is reasonable. However, I would like to ask how on earth is the guy who tried his hardest to save a townies life yesterday suddenly your favourite lynch target today? What happened in between? What have I done that is so scummy? Can you give me/us a little more than "I think Eevee is scum"? FWIW, I still read manda as probably town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 05, 2012, 07:15:28 pm
I'd like to take this opportunity to reiterate that I am and have been voting manda.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 05, 2012, 09:19:11 pm
@eevee: I think the reason why you are suspicious is that usually a townee also won't go all out to save another townee, simply because he has no way to be sure. And now your statement of your estimation of no lynch is starting to look bad...

But why did Galz lurk so much in this game? Currently I am actually fine lynching him fulfilling frisk's last wish...

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 05, 2012, 09:25:38 pm
@eevee: I think the reason why you are suspicious is that usually a townee also won't go all out to save another townee, simply because he has no way to be sure. And now your statement of your estimation of no lynch is starting to look bad...

But why did Galz lurk so much in this game? Currently I am actually fine lynching him fulfilling frisk's last wish...

Vote: Galzria

Totally forgot it was also Frisk's last wish. That was the small push I needed to do this. Maybe a little voting action will get Galz out of his shell?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 05, 2012, 09:26:33 pm
Vote: Galzria
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 05, 2012, 09:26:58 pm
but please, no one quick hammer.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 05, 2012, 09:29:09 pm
but please, no one quick hammer.
This obviously. Any quickhammer, accidental or not, will be treated as scumclaim.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 05, 2012, 09:40:37 pm
but please, no one quick hammer.
This obviously. Any quickhammer, accidental or not, will be treated as scumclaim.

Pretty convenient position to take if you are scum, lol. Well, we're the first 2 on the bus, anyone after us looks scummy. I mean, I don't necessarily disagree, just sayin...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 05, 2012, 09:47:21 pm
but please, no one quick hammer.
This obviously. Any quickhammer, accidental or not, will be treated as scumclaim.

Pretty convenient position to take if you are scum, lol. Well, we're the first 2 on the bus, anyone after us looks scummy. I mean, I don't necessarily disagree, just sayin...

Its not like ANY hammer is prohibited. But hammering before Galzria gets a chance to respond would be pretty freaking damning either way, dont you think? Given we have people playing their first games, I think it's good to remind everyone that you should always check the vote count before voting.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 05, 2012, 09:48:47 pm
Vote Count 2-6

shark_bait (1): Young Nick
manda2014 (1): pingpongsam
timchen (1): Galzria
Galzria (2): Eevee, timchen

Not Voting {2}: manda2014, shark_bait

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 05, 2012, 09:50:05 pm
For the lazy, 4 to lynch, 2 votes on Galz atm.

Without my warning, scum could have quickhammered (assuming neither of me and timchen is scum obv) and just claimed "I didnt realize". I think we would have lynched the hammer-guy anyways in that case, but cant hurt to make it clear to everyone how close to the lynch we are here.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 05, 2012, 09:51:17 pm
Ok, my case on eevee:

This originates from my d1 argument that if frisk is not scum, then eevee/YN/shark should not be. That argument based on the assumption that scum should have no obvious reason not to vote for frisk, upon repeated request when there are at least 3 townies on the wagon.

But after frisk said I'm crazy I realized there is one potential flaw: the scums do not play alone. So it is possible that scum have orchestrated a strategy such that they will split on a forming wagon. And since they cannot communicate during day, it is possible that they will just commit to the strategy.

In particular, in my eyes for eevee's play to make sense as a scum, it must be a coordinated play. It doesn't really make sense to throw away your flexibility as scum when it is completely unnecessary. Therefore if eevee is scum, there has to be a person on the wagon for long (me, galz, PPS) who is also scum. Furthermore, the two players must have planned in advance to play like that.

I know I am town (even though I can imagine from others eyes it might be possible that eevee and me are the scum pair), Galz and eevee had enough arguments d2 that have convinced me that they are not a pair, and PPS usually gives me a town read. Even if I assume he is scum I can hardly see him and eevee commit to such play.

So given that I assume that eevee's play has to be planned to be make sense, and there are no players on the wagon he could have made such plan with, my conclusion is therefore that eevee is likely town.

(Also, actually as you can read from here my suspicion now is Galz+X, where X is either YN or manda. My previous hideous attitude was trying to hide my suspicion on Galz and tried to see if I could see his response to other's wagon with no relation to himself. Now that he just responded that by lurking I guess that plan didn't quite work.)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 05, 2012, 09:51:52 pm
Indeed. The warning is just to eliminate the excuse for scum in case they are in for a quick hammer.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 05, 2012, 10:02:48 pm
FWIW, in a vacuum that is something I might see myself orchestrating with galzria. If he proposed it, I'm more of a "lets just wing it!" type of a player.

Back to this game: timchen, we really seem to think alike. Man it would blow if you flipped mafia, but I'm almost Frisk-level confident that is not going to happen.

My reads, from most town to least town:

timchen,    manda,   PPS,   Young Nick/shark_bait, Galzria.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 05, 2012, 10:22:41 pm
Sorry eevee, your frisk-level confidence does not say much for me. For me it still looks like post-confirmation bias.  ;)

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 05, 2012, 10:30:57 pm
I have no response to make, and really won't say much more. I've already claimed VT, which I assure you that scum already know having likely investigated me after my refusal to claim yesterday. My biggest case today was made on PPS, but I had mistaken identity, in that I meant Timchen at that time (based on his soft-claim, which others read as such as well, but he's now backed down on after being called out). I've also fully explained exactly why Eevee will have played exactly like he has as Scum, and I'm glad to see that Manda has seen exactly the same things I have.

I'm not going to clutter up my D2 posts, as I am absolutely sure in my reads and the cases that I've made, and it will lead to town winning if you sheep them after my lynch. Eevee and Timchen are your scum pair.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 05, 2012, 10:36:21 pm
Good job Galz. So you actually accepted to be lynched first?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 05, 2012, 10:45:31 pm
Good job Galz. So you actually accepted to be lynched first?

Nope, I hope the rest of the town reads my case and realizes that I'm right before lynching me - They are more than welcome to join me in lynching you instead. You can't lynch me without them after all. I just have little interest in cluttering up the cases I've made with 1001 defensive posts. I'm Vanilla Townie, plain and simple. Nothing more to say.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 05, 2012, 10:47:54 pm
Also I have explained completely what I didn't say and why I didn't at that time. It's up to you to insist that was a soft-claim which I then backed up (why would scum do that anyway?) but if you were town I would expect you to at least read through my later posts and comment on them. Your insistence on this case confirms that you are scum.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 05, 2012, 10:54:55 pm
That was a weird reaction, Galz. Do you honestly objectively believe your case is THAT strong? Strong enough you dont need to fight for it at all? "Just read through my posts and do the right thing" isnt really helping your case to the maximum, which I'm hoping you would do as town because you know, you could convince me and I could unvote and maybe go after sharkie or Nick (next guys on my suspicion list).
That's not going to turn my head though. Doesnt look like someone wanting to help town, not at all.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 05, 2012, 11:06:36 pm
Sure Timchen, I'll do you the honor of one response:

First, here's your Softclaim that later became NOT a softclaim after having been called out over it:

Ok. If I didn't overlook something then only sharky hasn't replied. But I think the concensus is fairly obvious that we had a better chance to look for scum on the off-wagon side: among eevee, young_nick, and manda.

I have some reasons to believe that eevee is town. (I will reveal if necessary.)
Among the remaining two, Young_nick is consistently hedging, while manda speaks of on-the-look-reasonable things, but gives me a feeling of being a notch more stupid than what I initially perceived. Look at her recent reply! Sounds reasonable, but if you look into it, lacks substance.

So: FoS: manda

Before I switch my vote here, I'd also like everyone to weigh in if you do not mind, that who do you think is the scummier of the two. Manda or Young_Nick.

At the time OF that claim, I had made 8 responses in the thread, and only 1 of which was to Eevee (and wasn't in any way an argumentative statement), yet you seem to come back NOW, and state your claim over Eevee being town was because he and I had been arguing too much to be a reasonable scum-pair:

Ok, my case on eevee:

This originates from my d1 argument that if frisk is not scum, then eevee/YN/shark should not be. That argument based on the assumption that scum should have no obvious reason not to vote for frisk, upon repeated request when there are at least 3 townies on the wagon.

But after frisk said I'm crazy I realized there is one potential flaw: the scums do not play alone. So it is possible that scum have orchestrated a strategy such that they will split on a forming wagon. And since they cannot communicate during day, it is possible that they will just commit to the strategy.

In particular, in my eyes for eevee's play to make sense as a scum, it must be a coordinated play. It doesn't really make sense to throw away your flexibility as scum when it is completely unnecessary. Therefore if eevee is scum, there has to be a person on the wagon for long (me, galz, PPS) who is also scum. Furthermore, the two players must have planned in advance to play like that.

I know I am town (even though I can imagine from others eyes it might be possible that eevee and me are the scum pair), Galz and eevee had enough arguments d2 that have convinced me that they are not a pair, and PPS usually gives me a town read. Even if I assume he is scum I can hardly see him and eevee commit to such play.

So given that I assume that eevee's play has to be planned to be make sense, and there are no players on the wagon he could have made such plan with, my conclusion is therefore that eevee is likely town.

(Also, actually as you can read from here my suspicion now is Galz+X, where X is either YN or manda. My previous hideous attitude was trying to hide my suspicion on Galz and tried to see if I could see his response to other's wagon with no relation to himself. Now that he just responded that by lurking I guess that plan didn't quite work.)

Your case posted NOW doesn't match what had happened in the thread at the time that you made your soft-claim. You *couldn't* have had a town read on Eevee due to him and I being an impossible pair based on our interactions because when you made your soft-claim we hadn't had any interactions at that point.

You made a soft-claim, got called out on it, backed down, and now have tried to justify it with a verifiably false claim. You're scum doing your very best to lead the town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 05, 2012, 11:25:19 pm
Well, here are the posts I was talking about: (before I make my claim that I have a secret reason to think that eevee is town)
#732
Quote
Well that sucked.

Eevee, your "I told you so's" seem SO confident and cocky. It's not the first time you've said it, and it's just amazing how SURE you've been. Care to explain how all your reads are so good with such little information?

Also, Robz was either our only PR, or we have a cop. If we have a cop and they investigated town, they should not say - period.

If we have a cop and they investigated scum, they should try to lynch said scum without claiming, and only claim as a last resort.
#768
Quote
As for my suspicions: I'm strongly leaning towards Nick, but I can't yet put my finger on it. I'll need to review all of his posts. Eevee is a strong second choice given his over-the-top confidence on his reads - and the fact that while the CF wagon was steaming along, he kept pressure on another townie for lynch - me - and my wagon almost took off a few times. It felt like scum staying off a known town wagon, while pushing another - because he won't get called out until we're both killed and flip town, at which point it's lylo for town.

Ok, it's probably my bad of calling these "arguments", but these two are precisely the things you wouldn't have pointed out if you are partners with eevee. That's where my reasoning was forming.

And of course, there are later confirmations you made further on your viewpoint of eevee. So I think my reasoning has a solid ground. Saying I fabricated those up is at best stupid (just to think how likely it is if I did intend to fakeclaim then decided to withdraw at the very first chance it being pointed out and actually found a valid reason to explain what I was doing) and at worst scum.

For the sake of the argument, let me still suppose you are town. Why on earth do I have to fake claim at that point? Eevee is in no immediate danger of being lynched or anything. Is it consistent to think I am stupid enough to fakeclaim for nothing then later smart enough to find such lengthy reasoning?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 05, 2012, 11:28:00 pm
So, in conclusion, I have to say your crappy theory of my fakeclaim in addition to your strange insistence on it makes it a compulsive case for me to identify you as scum.

What does everyone else think?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 05, 2012, 11:58:27 pm
On an entirely separate issue: Galz, how did you quote me several pages ago with my name and time stamp on it? If I hit reply on this page I cannot find the post more than a page ago.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 06, 2012, 12:58:40 am
On an entirely separate issue: Galz, how did you quote me several pages ago with my name and time stamp on it? If I hit reply on this page I cannot find the post more than a page ago.

You can click the quote button in the top right of each post.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 06, 2012, 01:01:22 am
On an entirely separate issue: Galz, how did you quote me several pages ago with my name and time stamp on it? If I hit reply on this page I cannot find the post more than a page ago.

You can click the quote button in the top right of each post.
I know, but how do I hit that button for a post pages ago?

Also, would you like to come in and comment between me and Galzria?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 06, 2012, 01:11:44 am
On an entirely separate issue: Galz, how did you quote me several pages ago with my name and time stamp on it? If I hit reply on this page I cannot find the post more than a page ago.

You can click the quote button in the top right of each post.
I know, but how do I hit that button for a post pages ago?

Also, would you like to come in and comment between me and Galzria?

The only way I know how to do it (there might be an easier way) is to right click the quote button and open it in a new tab, and then copy/paste the quote into the tab I have open where I'm writing the post.

Reading and gathering my thoughts. Post coming shortly.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 06, 2012, 01:30:27 am
Okay so here are my thoughts on the Galz-timchen conflict.

I'm not "100% sure" like Galz, but I do think that timchen and Eevee are the scummiest players here. I've stated my case against Eevee several times. I still think that timchen holding back his argument for why Eevee is town is anti-town behavior and reads pretty scummy to me. If you don't want to state your case until you get more confirmation, that's one thing. But to say you have a case and then not share it doesn't help anyone.

With regards to timchen's argument that Galzira and Eevee were arguing too much to be a scumpair, this doesn't seem to hold a whole lot of water to me. It would be easy enough for them to agree to argue so as to not seem like a pair. The mafia obviously don't want to seem like a team. Eevee wasn't in too much danger of a lynch, so IF GALZ WAS SCUM, he could easily point out some things that make Eevee seem scummy without worrying about losing his scumbuddy. I'm not saying I think Galz is scum, just that the argument that Eevee can't be scum based on his interactions with Galz is faulty. 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 06, 2012, 01:45:36 am
@manda: Actually, it seems I cannot find your original case against eevee, except based on some sort of overall feeling... If you have something more specific, do you mind pointing it out where it is?

For my argument,  the point is that if it is according to plan (one scum stays behind a wagon while the other speaks highly against it) it seems a bit unlikely that one scum will just say it straight that the other is suspicious of being over-confident. The key is that the scums cannot know beforehand that a pair analysis would be available to determine a single person's innocence. If he is not careful enough he may be pushing his partner's wagon and if other townee buys it he would be then in a bad position to back off.

But sure, it is just an argument, not something definite. So I am fine if you don't buy it.

But here's something different. Galz is accusing me scum based on that he thought me "obviously" fakeclaimed then retracted then found a reason for it later. Don't you find that rather ridiculous?

First as I said, if I were scum, there is really no reason for me to fake claim at that point. Second, if I were scum and I indeed somehow decided to fakeclaim, it would then be horrible play to immediately retract that. Then I had to find something reasonable to say afterwards...  which I actually did. Really, how likely is this scenario?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 06, 2012, 02:03:41 am
One additional point to add about Galz: accusing me fabricating things up is really scummy as hell. It is just false to state that you didn't say anything about eevee before I posted that I have a secret argument. You can count posts, but if you were town you should remember what you've said what you thought about eevee and you should know what I was talking about. Two possibilities about your forgetfulness: it is either because you are scum so your cases against everyone else are fake so you don't really remember them or it is because you deliberately ignore those posts to frame me, which again says that you are scum.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 06, 2012, 02:10:02 am
On an entirely separate issue: Galz, how did you quote me several pages ago with my name and time stamp on it? If I hit reply on this page I cannot find the post more than a page ago.

You can click the quote button in the top right of each post.
I know, but how do I hit that button for a post pages ago?

Also, would you like to come in and comment between me and Galzria?

The only way I know how to do it (there might be an easier way) is to right click the quote button and open it in a new tab, and then copy/paste the quote into the tab I have open where I'm writing the post.

Reading and gathering my thoughts. Post coming shortly.

Too tired to write up a real post, but every post has the "Quote" button in its top right corner. This is slightly different than the "Insert Quote" button that is of the ~15 most recent posts. You do have to open in a new tab if you want to have multiple quotes from old pages in the same comment, though. I guess this is all obvious to you, probably, timchen. Too tired to tell.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 06, 2012, 06:22:36 am
I've already claimed VT, which I assure you that scum already know having likely investigated me after my refusal to claim yesterday... ...Eevee and Timchen are your scum pair.

If Mafia had copped your role and discovered VT what is the likelihood that both Mafia would be driving a wagon on you D2? Wouldn't their effort be better served to hunt the possibly remaining PR?

I have to say that, while I am standing by my vote on manda, this degree of logical fallacy smells strongly of scum. My vote tenuously remains on manda because her play in response to the newly forming Galzria wagon is almost exactly as I would have expected from her. It's more of the non-committal, "I'm going with the flow so long as it is not me approach". If manda flips Town I'll have to accept that this is her play style which is pretty diametric to my own. In the meantime it has consistently led me to believe she is scum. I'm currently looking for a possible manda/Galz pair tell in the heap. That is, I think there may be some merit to the case on Galz but mainly because of his response to the wagon on him and not the basis for the wagon forming.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 06, 2012, 11:12:37 am
I've already claimed VT, which I assure you that scum already know having likely investigated me after my refusal to claim yesterday... ...Eevee and Timchen are your scum pair.

If Mafia had copped your role and discovered VT what is the likelihood that both Mafia would be driving a wagon on you D2? Wouldn't their effort be better served to hunt the possibly remaining PR?
Right on target.

Still, I do not want to experience the frisk-flip experience again-- I was so sure that he must be mafia in d1!
Maybe Galz was just busy or in a bad mood, and found his wagon at an inappropriate time. So Galz, if you were town, please for now put down your anger that we were all pointing at you with must-be-seemingly ridiculous reasons from your perspective.  Do you really stand behind your accusation that me and eevee are the scum pair? Even if so, can you please explain why a scum would have done what you described what I did?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 06, 2012, 11:23:26 am
I've already claimed VT, which I assure you that scum already know having likely investigated me after my refusal to claim yesterday... ...Eevee and Timchen are your scum pair.

If Mafia had copped your role and discovered VT what is the likelihood that both Mafia would be driving a wagon on you D2? Wouldn't their effort be better served to hunt the possibly remaining PR?
Right on target.

Still, I do not want to experience the frisk-flip experience again-- I was so sure that he must be mafia in d1!
Maybe Galz was just busy or in a bad mood, and found his wagon at an inappropriate time. So Galz, if you were town, please for now put down your anger that we were all pointing at you with must-be-seemingly ridiculous reasons from your perspective.  Do you really stand behind your accusation that me and eevee are the scum pair? Even if so, can you please explain why a scum would have done what you described what I did?

Yes, and I have already.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 06, 2012, 02:33:31 pm
Sharky where are you? I have seen u on other threads...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 06, 2012, 03:07:24 pm
I've been catching up in other threads.  I'll start putting more effort into this one.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 06, 2012, 03:41:41 pm
Why is all of that relevant you ask? Well, because I'm not convinced that there is scum voting for S_B right now. There have been a few reasoned arguments, including my own why he should live to see the night at the least. It would look rather scummy to ignore those, and continue to think S_B is scum. But I'm here to find and lynch Mafia, not scum.

So, I'm looking at Eevee, Robz, Captain_Frisk, and timchen.

Just found this gem from galz way back on page 10.  I find it interesting that 2 of those members are dead already. 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 06, 2012, 03:55:36 pm
Why is all of that relevant you ask? Well, because I'm not convinced that there is scum voting for S_B right now. There have been a few reasoned arguments, including my own why he should live to see the night at the least. It would look rather scummy to ignore those, and continue to think S_B is scum. But I'm here to find and lynch Mafia, not scum.

So, I'm looking at Eevee, Robz, Captain_Frisk, and timchen.

Just found this gem from galz way back on page 10.  I find it interesting that 2 of those members are dead already.

Yep. And look at the last two left.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 06, 2012, 04:13:16 pm
Through page 13, PPS has the vibe of over-concerned townie to me.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 06, 2012, 04:14:02 pm
Really depends on how you look at it doesn't it?:-P
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 06, 2012, 04:17:06 pm
Shark, may I suggest you reviewing what has happened in d2 first? There are pretty interesting things between me and galz. You can then review our earlier posts if you find it necessary.

Please ignore me if that's what you are doing. But if this is the case i am interested in hearing a quick words or two on what you see between me and Galz.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 06, 2012, 04:34:47 pm
Sure thing.  I hadn't had a good chance to read over D1 knowing that Robz and CF were town so that's definitely on my list of things to do.  I'll pause that and shift over to D2. 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 06, 2012, 06:07:33 pm
@tc... so you see Galz+X???  Why not Eevee+X?

More and more, Sharky is feeling like town to me. There was so much suspicion on him yestergameday that if he were mafia I feel like he would have altered his play style somewhat, and it still feels the same to me.

I think the words I would use to describe manda are wishy washy.  Her actions D2 seem quite similar to D1 in the desire to remain inconspicuous.  It seems kinda suspicious to me, but it's hard to get a read on it.  I would hammer today if necessary.

Ok. But we cannot let frisk die in vain.

From his death I think we can distinguish people into three lists:
Wanted to lynch him: me, Galz, Robz, PPS
Ok to lynch him: SB, Manda
Unwilling to lynch him: eevee, YN


The consensus seems to be, no one knew Robz had a power role. I wouldn't expect him to hint he has one either, so this does not surprise me. I dont remember Robz arguing very hard for anyones scumminess, so doesnt seem like he was killed for pointing out the mafia either, so the only logical conclusion I can come to is he was killed for being experienced and good in this game. Which is kind of sad, because I dont think that tells us much about the mafia family that did it, anyone can kill  for that reason.

@manda
Interesting. I think the fact you are accusing me makes you look very much like town to be honest. The reason is: after what happened yesterday, I'm not an easy lynch. I think accusing me first thing in the morning would just be way too bold of a mafia play (I dont think they want to be very controversial atm). Relatively confident you are town now, so that is good.

I'm pretty sure I've posted this argument before.  I can't remember if it was before or after this post, but I have a reason for the mafia to kill Robz.  Robz was defending me as town.  By removing him, mafia just made things potentially easier for forming a wagon on the scummy D1 sharky.  The interaction with manda also intrigued me.  A "you voted for me I think you're town" kinda of attitude from Eevee said about manda due to manda's accusing what is deemed "a difficult lynch". 

Okay, so, she thinks I'm scummy and shark_bait towny. The general consensus around town day1 was certainly more like the opposite, especially after Frisk flipped town (sharkie was voting for him, I was indomitably trying to save him). So, if she was mafia, I would assume she would go after easier targets. Mafia wants to pick someone they know town already suspects, and try to form a wagon. At the time (this was before Galzria and a few others said they think I'm scummy) I dont think manda saw much of a chance to build an Eevee-wagon, which leads me to think she genuinely thought I was scummy and is not a lying mafia. She didnt even mention anyone else, so it did not feel to me like a mafia trying to lead town to a mislynch but rather like a townie in the dark trying her hardest to think about the game and form an idea of whats going on.

Obviously not like a bulletproof read or anything like that, but a read none the less. Would others agree with the thought process?

The bold rests my case against Eevee.  In describing what a mafia would do Eevee is describing the exact actions taken against me.

@tc, in response to your request for thoughts regarding you and TC.  Right now, I'm inclined to see two townies seeing things from a different side of the fence (of the same duplex).    I think we could do better than either of you with a D2 lynch.  Eevee is my top choice, manda as well.

If Galz is lynched and turns town I'll probably suspect you.  This could be an elaborate ploy on your part to lynch galz and then push the Eevee wagon because if Galz wasn't scum... then Eevee certainly must be due to your arguments already posted regarding the numbers.  IMO, TC+(manda, PPS, YN) is a potential mafia pair. I feel like I'm rambling now... I know I've got some more thoughts in my head about this, but I'll be gone for a good 3-4 hours now and just want to put this out there.

@Eevee, my thoughts are making me less suspicious of you as my post would make you believe.  But as I read through D2, that was kinda the ordering of how my mind went and I just want to put everything out there.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 06, 2012, 06:47:51 pm
@shark: in short, I don't understand you...
Your first point does not really hold, (I agree that a Robz kill makes you unlikely mafia as you previously argued), since one, in your scenario, mafia will only do this if they realize both that Robz are one of few of your supporters and that would continue to be the case. You know, mafia tend to concentrate more on themselves, who suspects them who doesn't, etc. Second, if what you said were true, we should see some early wagon today on you going. But that didn't happen.

And about the second point, I don't understand at all. Are you just basically saying you suspect eevee because he suspects you?

For the record, I think you are just a bit scummier due to that frisk is town and you are the hammerer. Ant that is pretty much what eevee is talking about I assume. And eevee is a bit more townier because he tried to stop us from lynching a townie.

And lastly, can you reiterate why Galz does not look scummy to you? I think PPS made a good point on this issue: originally he's not particularly scummy, but his strange insistence on my fakeclaim and me and eevee pairing can only be understood as from a scum. Seriously, when have you ever seen a scum fakeclaim for nothing? and also (sort of) buddying up with his scumbuddy? LOL
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 06, 2012, 08:46:31 pm
@shark: in short, I don't understand you...
Your first point does not really hold, (I agree that a Robz kill makes you unlikely mafia as you previously argued), since one, in your scenario, mafia will only do this if they realize both that Robz are one of few of your supporters and that would continue to be the case. You know, mafia tend to concentrate more on themselves, who suspects them who doesn't, etc. Second, if what you said were true, we should see some early wagon today on you going. But that didn't happen.

And about the second point, I don't understand at all. Are you just basically saying you suspect eevee because he suspects you?

For the record, I think you are just a bit scummier due to that frisk is town and you are the hammerer. Ant that is pretty much what eevee is talking about I assume. And eevee is a bit more townier because he tried to stop us from lynching a townie.

And lastly, can you reiterate why Galz does not look scummy to you? I think PPS made a good point on this issue: originally he's not particularly scummy, but his strange insistence on my fakeclaim and me and eevee pairing can only be understood as from a scum. Seriously, when have you ever seen a scum fakeclaim for nothing? and also (sort of) buddying up with his scumbuddy? LOL

To me, the most curious aspect of Galzria's play is his (non-)defense upon receiving accusation. He makes a, "I told you so" argument and ignores some points, ultimately saying very little. His play seems...disinterested. Now, this obviously could change, but that is not pro-town behavior. Even if he is town, that lack of rally is concerning for the town headed forward if he makes it to d3.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 06, 2012, 08:54:33 pm
@shark, also, for your very first question... I believe I have explained why I think eevee is town in
.

@Young_Nick: Indeed. The only interpretation I can get is that Galzria is mafia and he has given up fighting. One exotic possibility is that he is a provoked town but honestly I don't really see what has provoked him if he is VT.

@Galria: if you are VT please just show me I am wrong on my above statement to YN!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 06, 2012, 09:03:27 pm
@shark: I suddenly understood a part of your confusion.

My argument, simply put is this:
1. suppose eevee is scum
2. his behavior suggested he must have planned this with somebody on the wagon
3. The only person I can see that to be possible is Galzria, however, due to his attitude toward eevee I deem this is impossible.
4. conclusion: eevee is likely town.

(I would also like to note that in your eyes this argument does not exclude a me-eevee pair possibility. Also PPS-eevee, while I figure it as unlikely, cannot be ruled out such as Galzria-eevee I would say. I will leave the rest of you to decide whether it is more likely that eevee pairs with me or PPS or in fact he is town.)

As you can see, this argument can not determine whether Galzria is town or not. But if eevee is town and I assume a 1-1 split, the likeliest scum pair for me is either Galz-manda or Galz-YN.

(In a sense, if I want to focus on the 1-1 case, then Galzria is my top suspect because the only competition he has is with PPS. And this is why I don't want to reveal my argument in the first place as it shows that I am considering Galz+X pairing possibilities, which may affect how he treats his partner.)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 06, 2012, 09:05:16 pm
@shark: in short, I don't understand you...
Your first point does not really hold, (I agree that a Robz kill makes you unlikely mafia as you previously argued), since one, in your scenario, mafia will only do this if they realize both that Robz are one of few of your supporters and that would continue to be the case. You know, mafia tend to concentrate more on themselves, who suspects them who doesn't, etc. Second, if what you said were true, we should see some early wagon today on you going. But that didn't happen.

And about the second point, I don't understand at all. Are you just basically saying you suspect eevee because he suspects you?

For the record, I think you are just a bit scummier due to that frisk is town and you are the hammerer. Ant that is pretty much what eevee is talking about I assume. And eevee is a bit more townier because he tried to stop us from lynching a townie.

And lastly, can you reiterate why Galz does not look scummy to you? I think PPS made a good point on this issue: originally he's not particularly scummy, but his strange insistence on my fakeclaim and me and eevee pairing can only be understood as from a scum. Seriously, when have you ever seen a scum fakeclaim for nothing? and also (sort of) buddying up with his scumbuddy? LOL

To me, the most curious aspect of Galzria's play is his (non-)defense upon receiving accusation. He makes a, "I told you so" argument and ignores some points, ultimately saying very little. His play seems...disinterested. Now, this obviously could change, but that is not pro-town behavior. Even if he is town, that lack of rally is concerning for the town headed forward if he makes it to d3.

It's not disinterest, it's that I've seen enough games go by that the cases of the dead are dropped in future days because they're bogged down by a defense that ultimately serves no purpose. I've made my cases for both Eevee's play, and Timchen's. The best response either has given is Eevee "I was too pro-town fighting to save CF to be scum!" (It's really funny that Eevee was pushing this D1 when the only way to know CF was town was to be scum), and Timchen "lol, what Gslz suggests is to crazy to be true!" (Not really a resounding defense, eh? Especially because what he claims has "never been done by scum before" is exactly what scum did in M-IV and M-II (by which I mean unprovoked claims) - so it's exactly in line with what I'd expect).

I've also stated that I'm VT, so the claim is out of the way (btw, claimed that with 0 votes on me). At this point jumping up and down screaming "you're making a mistake" won't really change anything. A Galzria lynch would result in lylo for the town. However if you follow that path, then sheep my reads, you're still likely to win. What more can I say? Going all hellbent to save myself will just be anti-town in the long run because the incentive to read back through all the muck will be decreased. I made my cases based on logic and without confirmation bias (of which I have stronger and stronger reads on, but don't carry as much weight).

You should lynch Timchen first, but if it takes my death to see this, Cest la vie.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 06, 2012, 09:09:14 pm
@timchen: You have talked about him before, but in your rebuttal to S_B, any reference of him as one of the people on the wagon is mysteriously absent. Do you really see him town with that much confidence? Or is there some other reason I am not seeing.

Warning: Quick-posting this so I am not re-reading your recent posts to see if you discussed S_B earlier today (as in IRL today).
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 06, 2012, 09:14:19 pm
timchen's posts make so much sense to me, I have a hard time believing town Galzria would dismiss them the way he has this far.* My logical explanation for Galzria behaving that way would be that Galzria is mafia and has to try to discredit timchen the best he can because timchen is too close to the truth.

*I myself agree with timchen a lot, so I might over-appreciate his arguments. Still, Galzria seems to think they are complete rubbish which is just weird to me. I would expect him to say "I see why you think that, but..." not go like "obv mafia lying is obv". Galzria, I am town and to me timchen is making a lot of sense. If you actually pointed out why he is so obviously wrong, I might change my mind about him... at the moment you just seem oh so much scummier to me than he does.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 06, 2012, 09:27:41 pm
@manda: Actually, it seems I cannot find your original case against eevee, except based on some sort of overall feeling... If you have something more specific, do you mind pointing it out where it is?

Sorry, I should have been more clear. I should have said "stated my READ on eevee several times." I have stated a case bit of a case against him, though. See post #881. His repeated insistence that he cannot be mafia because he argued so vehemently to save Frisk, who turned up town, is ridiculous.

PPS, I understand your suspicion of me, but I think it's just because we have very different playstyles. I'm really reluctant to say I'm 100% sure about something unless I absolutely am, which I'm not. There is so much WIFOM involved that I can't be totally sure any one person (other than myself, obviously) is town/mafia, and I'm not going to claim to be sure if I'm not.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 06, 2012, 09:30:50 pm
Galz, you seem like town to me still, but refusing to discuss things is not helping your case at all. If you were in imminent danger of a lynch, your strategy of "not posting to not clutter up what I've said so people can follow what I've said" might make sense. At this point, it just keeps real discussion from happening.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 06, 2012, 09:31:30 pm
@YN: good catch there. So there are two reasons: first is that by on the wagon I actually meant "the 4 of us that were on the wagon for a long time." If you recall I divided people into 3 groups early d2. So if to include Shark I would say we have to consider the pairing (PPS, me, Galz; Shark) and (Manda, you; Shark) in addition to what I have been talking lately. The second reason is shark's analysis how unlikely he will kill Robz if he were mafia makes lots of sense to me (even though himself puts a big WIFOM there.) So I am willing to put him off my suspicion list for now. Actually PPS is similar; while I mention him I never seriously consider the possibilities involving he is one of scum.

@Galzria: sure, planned unprovoked fakeclaim is possible. But how possible is such claim immediately retracted and later explained with reason how that is not a claim? Not only it is just unlikely, but I just don't see any reason for a scum to do this except stupid play. But stupid play may as well come from town.

In addition, let me just say for the sake of the argument that your case on me is valid. Even then, I can't find any logical reason for you to be so sure that eevee is also scum. Does the good words from a scum toward another player make that player definitely scum?

Combining everything I cannot make any other conclusion that you are scum. If you flipped town after we lynch you, well, unlike frisk which I feel terribly sorry about his lynch, I will only be angry about you because your lynch is a direct result of your play.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 06, 2012, 09:58:35 pm
@YN: good catch there. So there are two reasons: first is that by on the wagon I actually meant "the 4 of us that were on the wagon for a long time." If you recall I divided people into 3 groups early d2. So if to include Shark I would say we have to consider the pairing (PPS, me, Galz; Shark) and (Manda, you; Shark) in addition to what I have been talking lately. The second reason is shark's analysis how unlikely he will kill Robz if he were mafia makes lots of sense to me (even though himself puts a big WIFOM there.) So I am willing to put him off my suspicion list for now. Actually PPS is similar; while I mention him I never seriously consider the possibilities involving he is one of scum.

@Galzria: sure, planned unprovoked fakeclaim is possible. But how possible is such claim immediately retracted and later explained with reason how that is not a claim? Not only it is just unlikely, but I just don't see any reason for a scum to do this except stupid play. But stupid play may as well come from town.

In addition, let me just say for the sake of the argument that your case on me is valid. Even then, I can't find any logical reason for you to be so sure that eevee is also scum. Does the good words from a scum toward another player make that player definitely scum?

Combining everything I cannot make any other conclusion that you are scum. If you flipped town after we lynch you, well, unlike frisk which I feel terribly sorry about his lynch, I will only be angry about you because your lynch is a direct result of your play.

No, my lynch would be a direct result of your play, as you've made it clear you were out "looking" for Galz+X since you softclaimed (in fact, you claim now that was your reasoning for only "softclaiming"). If I'm correct, that was... 2 pages? Into D2? You've been shooting for my lynch since the day began essentially, having "decided" I'm scum, and now you are trying to use the "I'll be angry town" excuse to defend your play. My "lynch" won't be anything but your own doing, but as scum, well, that really doesn't bother you now does it?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 06, 2012, 10:16:33 pm
No, my lynch would be a direct result of your play, as you've made it clear you were out "looking" for Galz+X since you softclaimed (in fact, you claim now that was your reasoning for only "softclaiming"). If I'm correct, that was... 2 pages? Into D2? You've been shooting for my lynch since the day began essentially, having "decided" I'm scum, and now you are trying to use the "I'll be angry town" excuse to defend your play. My "lynch" won't be anything but your own doing, but as scum, well, that really doesn't bother you now does it?
Completely nonsense. Are you saying that I falseclaimed because I knew you would insist on accusing me falseclaiming?

As I said several times, my secrecy back then is because that I want to see how you respond to my suspicion on YN and Manda, without realizing that I am also suspecting you. This is entirely different from me focusing on you in the very beginning. In fact, before your insistence on my fakeclaim after lurking I do not more suspicion toward you than toward YN or manda (as suggested by my earlier votes.) The only reason you are my top almost-confirmed suspect is because your insistence on this crappy timchen-scum-fakeclaim-then-retract theory.

Seriously, and you have been avoiding answering this question. Tell me a valid reason why a scum would play like what I did. Fakeclaim and then immediately retract. And also how eevee becomes definitely scum in your eyes as well.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 06, 2012, 10:46:55 pm
No, my lynch would be a direct result of your play, as you've made it clear you were out "looking" for Galz+X since you softclaimed (in fact, you claim now that was your reasoning for only "softclaiming"). If I'm correct, that was... 2 pages? Into D2? You've been shooting for my lynch since the day began essentially, having "decided" I'm scum, and now you are trying to use the "I'll be angry town" excuse to defend your play. My "lynch" won't be anything but your own doing, but as scum, well, that really doesn't bother you now does it?
Completely nonsense. Are you saying that I falseclaimed because I knew you would insist on accusing me falseclaiming?

As I said several times, my secrecy back then is because that I want to see how you respond to my suspicion on YN and Manda, without realizing that I am also suspecting you. This is entirely different from me focusing on you in the very beginning. In fact, before your insistence on my fakeclaim after lurking I do not more suspicion toward you than toward YN or manda (as suggested by my earlier votes.) The only reason you are my top almost-confirmed suspect is because your insistence on this crappy timchen-scum-fakeclaim-then-retract theory.

Seriously, and you have been avoiding answering this question. Tell me a valid reason why a scum would play like what I did. Fakeclaim and then immediately retract. And also how eevee becomes definitely scum in your eyes as well.

Your first paragraph makes no sense, as I never said anything like that. What I said is that in the case you eventually put forth for Eevee being town, you made it clear that at the time that you "softclaimed" your votes and actions towards others were simply to not tip me off that you were really looking for the most likely Galz+X pairing.

My point being, that you coming out now trying to play the angry townie card after I flip town because I somehow "brought this on myself" is a ludicrous statement. You've made it more than clear that you were primarily focused on Galz+X since very early on in the day. If I get lynched, it won't be because of something I've magically done (or not done), it'll be because you've been pushing for me (or waiting to) since the day began.

As to why Eevee is likely scum, I've made the case on multiple occasions. If you're that interested (hint: you're not), you can go back and read. It's largely in part to your play, but mostly due to his own, owing to many of the same reasons Manda has picked up on (you've also ignored her about these reasons, or simply dismissed them altogether).

As far as your claim goes, like I stated at the start, it's stupid town play at best, and bad Mafia play at worst. The fact that it read as a softclaim was blatantly obvious, and you would have to be oblivious not to have realized that. Since I don't believe you to be that oblivious, I can only reason that you put it there intentionally. As town, this makes 0 sense. Why put in a claim you weren't able to backup? As scum however, it does make sense because if you can get by on just the soft-claim (clearing your partner), all you need is one mislynch today and you reach town lylo.

But that didn't happen, did it? I called you out early. Now what? Do you risk a full-claim when 2/3 of the time you'll get  counter-claimed (disastrous for you at this point, because if we lynch the counter-claim first, you're dead to rights tomorrow - and if we lynch you first, well...)? No, you do the smart thing and back down. But now you're left needing to explain yourself, so you put together this story that Eevee must be town because you assume Galzria to be scum (essentially exactly what you produced). You use weak arguments claiming that Eevee and I were too much against each other prior to your "soft-claim" (We had had very little interaction up to that point), and you've since come out saying that no, you weren't after me early (a direct contradiction to the case you made for why Eevee must be town).

Add it all together, and what do you get? Timchen the Mafiosi!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 06, 2012, 11:08:59 pm
Now this is a better post Galz. And I actually agree to your first paragraph!

The second paragraph does not make sense though. I am NOT pushing your wagon at all before your insistence on me fakeclaiming. (I voted for you before that, but that was just an attempt of trying to make you say more.) If you didn't insist I would imagine that the day would end with either YN or Manda lynch. Or just something else completely unrelated.

And third paragraph, I see what you and manda said. Didn't I even quote that as part of my galzria-eevee unpairing theory? I don't know why you say I don't care, because I really do, and you can also see that I do from my posts. Framing me this way is not going to work. The problem I have with the reasoning of you two is that it is just weak. Just try to think from a towny perspective. If I have tried to save a townie against the majority of the town and I was proved right, what is there so wrong about me thinking I should gain some town cred? And I did seriously consider the possibility that eevee can be scum as you can tell from me coming up with this eevee-Galz unpairing thing.

And fourth, doing so as scum does not make sense as you stated, as eevee is not at a stage that requires me clearing him. I can very well get by just by saying "I was not suspecting eevee for now." No need to mention any sort of secret reasoning at all. I don't know why you just keep ignoring the possibility that I am town and I was doing precisely what I said I was doing. Unlike what you are suggesting which is just by itself unlikely and unreasonable to happen, what I claimed I was doing is actually reasonable. I suspected something, figured the best way to scumhunt is to hide part of the things I am observing, and did just that.

And the funniest thing is, what I said I did actually DOES NOT point toward you as scum. What you are insisting, instead, did. You would have no reason not to consider the possibility what I said is just true (as it does not accuse you, who if you are VT is the only one you know to be innocent), unless you are scum and is now just stuck with your theory.

So, tl;dr, I now officially consider you are scum. I can give up my angry town theory now. No need to worry about that.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: O on August 06, 2012, 11:18:01 pm
note: mafia VII and mafia VIII have way to similar #'s. My apologies
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 06, 2012, 11:32:36 pm
Oh, sorry, I misread your first paragraph. I think I have stated clearly enough: it's not that I didn't suspect YN and eevee at all. What I did is that I was scumhunting multiple people at the same time. The reason that I keep something secret is indeed solely due to the fact that I did not want you to realize that I was suspecting You+X at the moment, but my other accusations and votes carries their obvious purposes.

Why put in a claim you weren't able to backup? As scum however, it does make sense because if you can get by on just the soft-claim (clearing your partner), all you need is one mislynch today and you reach town lylo.

But that didn't happen, did it? I called you out early. Now what? Do you risk a full-claim when 2/3 of the time you'll get  counter-claimed (disastrous for you at this point, because if we lynch the counter-claim first, you're dead to rights tomorrow - and if we lynch you first, well...)? No, you do the smart thing and back down. But now you're left needing to explain yourself, so you put together this story that Eevee must be town because you assume Galzria to be scum (essentially exactly what you produced). You use weak arguments claiming that Eevee and I were too much against each other prior to your "soft-claim" (We had had very little interaction up to that point), and you've since come out saying that no, you weren't after me early (a direct contradiction to the case you made for why Eevee must be town).
And now let me reply a bit more in detail to this misleading theory.

In all seriousness, even if everyone in town took my secrecy as a softclaim without questioning it, they still have to choose one from eevee and manda to lynch. And there are several dubious people (including eevee) suggesting that even though it is quite likely that there are one scum among the two we should not forget to look elsewhere. So the mislynch is not going to happen any time soon as we don't have a particular target.

Now can you show me an example where an unprovoked claim did not point a specific target?

I don't think there is one (but I didn't read MII so feel free to correct me) because this play just does not make sense.

And okay, let's just suppose I made this stupid claim nonetheless. Now you say my backing up is wise. This is ridiculous. If it is a plan, then the plan has to be that I cannot back up, if as you said I tried to make people realize I am softclaiming.

The only way in your description for my supposedly scummy plan to work is for the town somehow to take my claim as true, choose one lynch target, and lynch him before questioning whether I really claimed or not. And I had to envision this as likely for me to put forth this plan. I dunno how to say, but it seems that you are suggesting me as both smart and stupid, and thinking deep and shallow at the same time.

And about the last theory, no, you are just wrong. My theory does not require you to be scum. Don't you see me discuss PPS and myself as well? The theory is that if eevee is scum he has to find a partner among (me, you, PPS). Then I say I know it is not me, PPS is unlikely, and you are the only candidate. But your assessment if him excluded you. While you and eevee did not say much to each other, my argument is not about how much you argued at all. It is about the fact that I think eevee's play has to be planned if he's scum, but if you guys planned it you would not have just pointed that out he would be faking it.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 06, 2012, 11:37:10 pm
Timchen, the below is the quote where you finally come out with your Eevee case. Your premises is this:

Eevee shouldn't be scum because he didn't vote for CF. (I've already pointed out there fallacy of this logic in my case on Eevee).

Furthermore, if Eevee WERE scum, he would need a partner, probably one on the wagon. (This is reasonable).

Of those on the wagon, he can't be partners with you because you know you're town. (Not much to that, you would say that regardless - but that doesn't make the statement true)

He can't be partners with me because we've gone after each other too much. (A reasonable case if you were making this case fresh when you posted it. But when you softclaimed the existence of this case way back when, this argument was invalid, and incredibly weak at best, as I had said two things to Eevee, and him just one to me).

He can't be partners with PPS because you read PPS as town. (You don't even provide a logical reason for this, instead stating "just because" - but this isn't even the worst one because....)

He can't be partners with SB because... Oh wait, you didn't even MENTION Shark_Bait.

To conclude, you admit your earlier play was just a bunch of nonsense to try and "catch me out" - and you admit that you've been primarily looking for/at Galz+X pairings.

O k, my case on eevee:

This originates from my d1 argument that if frisk is not scum, then eevee/YN/shark should not be. That argument based on the assumption that scum should have no obvious reason not to vote for frisk, upon repeated request when there are at least 3 townies on the wagon.

But after frisk said I'm crazy I realized there is one potential flaw: the scums do not play alone. So it is possible that scum have orchestrated a strategy such that they will split on a forming wagon. And since they cannot communicate during day, it is possible that they will just commit to the strategy.

In particular, in my eyes for eevee's play to make sense as a scum, it must be a coordinated play. It doesn't really make sense to throw away your flexibility as scum when it is completely unnecessary. Therefore if eevee is scum, there has to be a person on the wagon for long (me, galz, PPS) who is also scum. Furthermore, the two players must have planned in advance to play like that.

I know I am town (even though I can imagine from others eyes it might be possible that eevee and me are the scum pair), Galz and eevee had enough arguments d2 that have convinced me that they are not a pair, and PPS usually gives me a town read. Even if I assume he is scum I can hardly see him and eevee commit to such play.

So given that I assume that eevee's play has to be planned to be make sense, and there are no players on the wagon he could have made such plan with, my conclusion is therefore that eevee is likely town.

(Also, actually as you can read from here my suspicion now is Galz+X, where X is either YN or manda. My previous hideous attitude was trying to hide my suspicion on Galz and tried to see if I could see his response to other's wagon with no relation to himself. Now that he just responded that by lurking I guess that plan didn't quite work.)

Now however, you're trying to paint my insistence that this is the case full of fallacies that you presented as a scumlie. It's not, and it's all above to prove. You go so far NOW to claim that your above arguments don't actually paint me as scum.

You've been nothing but inconsistent, you've stated things that are quite simply false, you've misrepresented the truth, made leading arguments so full of holes that a cow would fall right through, and there's only one good reason for it all.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 06, 2012, 11:38:51 pm
*they still have to choose one from YN and manda to lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 06, 2012, 11:58:23 pm
I think I have already pre-answered a majority of the points you mentioned here, but why not do a head-to-head confrontation?

Quote
Eevee shouldn't be scum because he didn't vote for CF. (I've already pointed out there fallacy of this logic in my case on Eevee).
This is not a premise and my argument is independent of this.

Quote
He can't be partners with me because we've gone after each other too much. (A reasonable case if you were making this case fresh when you posted it. But when you softclaimed the existence of this case way back when, this argument was invalid, and incredibly weak at best, as I had said two things to Eevee, and him just one to me).
As I said, my argument does not base on post counts. The point is the content, which you have doubly confirmed with two posts and it is enough for me.

Quote
He can't be partners with PPS because you read PPS as town. (You don't even provide a logical reason for this, instead stating "just because" - but this isn't even the worst one because....)
True. That is a weak point of the argument but I guess we both agree that PPS is town now right?

Quote
He can't be partners with SB because... Oh wait, you didn't even MENTION Shark_Bait.
I explained this earlier. (me, you, PPS, Robz) is different from sharky. He only reluctantly put down his vote near the end of d1. I think it should be obvious for you if you were town that for my theory sharky need not be included here. (If eevee is scum he must have planned this with his partner that is on the other end of the wagon... and sharky is not on the other end of the wagon most of the time!)

Quote
To conclude, you admit your earlier play was just a bunch of nonsense to try and "catch me out" - and you admit that you've been primarily looking for/at Galz+X pairings.
I admitted no such things. and see the quote below:

(by me)
Quote
(Also, actually as you can read from here my suspicion now is Galz+X, where X is either YN or manda. My previous hideous attitude was trying to hide my suspicion on Galz and tried to see if I could see his response to other's wagon with no relation to himself. Now that he just responded that by lurking I guess that plan didn't quite work.)
See the "now" there in the first sentence? Galz+X is the conclusion after your lurking. Not before. Which is consistent with everything that I have said. And just let me say that again:

1. I think there is a scum between YN and manda.
2. Their partner can be Galz. Note this is different from I am exclusively looking for Galz+X, but just that if it is indeed Galz+X Galz may provide us some information who that X is.
3. So I hid the reasoning why I put eevee away, in the hope that Galz did not realize he is in part of my suspicion and hope that if he is scum I will catch something.
4. Didn't work. Galz basically said nothing. eevee asks me whether I am suspicious of Galz.
5. Then to push things forward I may as well speak out my theory and put some pressure on Galz instead.

Quote
Now however, you're trying to paint my insistence that this is the case full of fallacies that you presented as a scumlie. It's not, and it's all above to prove. You go so far NOW to claim that your above arguments don't actually paint me as scum.
So now I have explained how my play is consistent with what I said, even with the nitpicking you are doing with it. How do you explain me playing scum starting with that fakeclaim? Epic bad scum suicide and then double suicide by having eevee buddying up with me?

Quote
You've been nothing but inconsistent, you've stated things that are quite simply false, you've misrepresented the truth, made leading arguments so full of holes that a cow would fall right through, and there's only one good reason for it all.
This is a very truth statement, but misdirected.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 02:20:29 am
Actually I found my posts in the previous two pages are a lot easier to understand, upon rereading them. Galz you did a good job of "if you cannot convince people, confuse them."

But now I am so certain. I shouldn't have given you the rope ("my angry townie theory") and let you try to fight back using it as a weapon against me. Dear town, please lynch Galzria. If he flips town, you can lynch me. (If that is the case, then we lost unfortunately because I am also town; but that is never going to happen.)

(I was tempted to say dear town, if you wish please lynch me. I will flip town then you can lynch Galzria and manda. The problem of that is I am not yet 100% sure manda is the other mafia. And if she is not and the town lynched me first, we would still lose even if we lynch Galzria correctly.)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 07, 2012, 02:34:17 am
Tim, question for you:

If we're both town, who would the Mafia pair be? Personally (and this goes back to a D1 guess I made to Voltgloss in a PM), I think YN/Eevee(or PPS).

Actually, this is a good exercise for everybody. If Tim and I are two town fighting, where are the Mafia Pair?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 02:55:32 am
Ok. To answer this question I think I have to disregard your previous ~5 posts about me and my alleged fake claim. In that case, I think there are two distinct possibilities:

The major possibility is that PPS is scum. I still believe there has to be 1 scum among the first 4 voters of frisk. But in that case I am not sure at all who is the remaining scum. So (PPS; YN, eevee, manda, shark) are all possible.

There can be an off chance that the scum just watched us 4 townies lynching another townie with interest. But I have no read for this case... given that this is the case I would say eevee looks most suspicious. Shark can even be that sad 5th townie.
 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 07, 2012, 06:30:34 am
If we're both town, who would the Mafia pair be?

Ah, so now calling pairs is okay per the veteran player!  :D

My vote is on manda, so there's one half from my corner.

A strong possibility of manda's scumbuddy is Eevee.

Believe it or not I could see a YN/Sharky pair as I read through the history. Ballsy D1 play but perfectly scummy D2 play. YN remains fixated on Sharky knowing that wagon was just a ruse to begin with. When a sufficient town vs. town wagon develops, preferably with Sharky getting in early YN can make the pounce or just stay on the sidelines and remain clear of the fray.

timchen has come off fairly scummy to me in the Galzria scuffle. Call it what he will but he fakeclaimed. If I have a secret in this game I don't run around telling everyone I have a secret. The secret itself is kept secret. Granted, in M6 the secret itself was made un-secret but that dynamic hinged on having a mail carrier role who was effectively disseminating the secret so the more people who received it the less secret the actual secret needed to be. In this game with the jailer dead the only reason to reveal the presence of a secret is to sway heat off a towny about to be lynched. Even then, utmost tact should be exercised so as not to reveal the PR this early. It was a fakeclaim and it smells scummy.

I do not have an acceptable pair to timchen as most everyone except Galzria fits the bill.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 07, 2012, 06:38:01 am
Another exercise:

Scummy--- manda, YN, timchen, sharky, Eevee, Galzria, PPS ---Towny 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 07, 2012, 07:04:27 am
If both timchen and Galzria are town, I'd go manda-PPS or Nick-PPS. Not "seeing pairs" though, but since you asked.

I did the scummy ------ towny exercise a couple of pages back already.

Galzria seems to be trying to confuse town with lots of long posts, I dont agree with much of his content but at least he is putting up a fight like I would expect him to. My vote stays there, I think we've found scum.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 09:53:41 am
@PPS: interesting analysis to say the least... but
1. I hoped I've expressed clearly enough why I played as I did. I am fine if you saying it is some play that deserves attention... but I do not agree in any way that it is a consistent play as mafia. To fake claim there under those circumstances without painting a specific target serves no purpose.

2. me-galz pair... well, that's an interesting conspiracy theory. I actually have thought whether this is a possible scenario to others yesterday. As much as I liked it... it is just implausible. You can put WIFOM there... but if we are a pair, it is just so much better for us to stay low and lynch either YN or manda today. This interesting act can be performed tomorrow, with the better flavor (if the cop didn't appear yet) that I fakeclaim cop and accuse galzria. That is a much much more effective play if we both are scum.

I hope now you can see how we play differently.

I try to find scum using mostly motives, reasoning, and likelihood. I do not judge based on the attitude people say things. In M6, I still find my early suspicion on ehunt/cayvie justified. It is just unfortunate that somehow the early death on the Cayvie wagon does not reveal scum. And while your confidence that Galzria is telling the truth from his attitude in that game is indeed correct, you doctoring him actually does NOT help the game that much. Actually if he was found dead along with Ozle, the situation would have been clearer to town, and we wouldn't have to waste a lot of time discussing whether he was lying or not. You can see that toward the end game it did not really matter whether Galzria is dead or alive. (And not to mention that actually your play would make a lot more sense if you were the SK and Glooble was the last member of werewolves... it is fortunate for us you were not)

Thing is, we were still discussing a lot whether Galzria is lying or not lately in that game. This is because it is logical to view how he plays as scum, and he has every motive to play like that if he is scum, and we cannot really rule him out however candid he is, just as theorel said when he is dying.

Here it is similar. You can have a gut feeling that my secrecy is strange. Or Galzria is candid. That is fine. But IMO the important thing here is: whether you believe in my explanation of my play or not, it does not point toward a specific player. Galz is not forced to refute my explanation. Even suppose that objectively you assess that my explanation and Galz's are equally likely (which I do not agree but just for the sake of the argument), a generic townie would have no reason to make a strong case on one side. What he has said about his logic does not withstand scrutiny. The only reason I can see him saying such things is that he is scum.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 10:03:56 am
One additional thing: I don't see from your eyes why I cannot pair with YN or Manda or shark (since you even say I can pair with Galzria...)

And seriously, PPS, now I have found that you put Galzria only behind yourself for towniness, that is ridiculous. What makes you believe him so much?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 07, 2012, 10:14:06 am
timchen I can't coherently respond to your questions because you are working off the faulty assumption that I somehow paired you and Galzria.

Go back and read it again. I specifically said you could be paired with anyone except Galzria. I am saying that a timchen/Galzria pair is the one pair I have completely tossed out as plausible.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 10:19:33 am
Oh I see. Sorry about that. Disregard my #2 in the first post and the first line of of the second post then. Other points I've made shall have no relation to that.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 07, 2012, 10:52:13 am
Oh I see. Sorry about that. Disregard my #2 in the first post and the first line of of the second post then. Other points I've made shall have no relation to that.

All the other points you made were "but it COULD have been this way! Just like the dying scum (Theorel) said!" You completely ignore one thing:

Things WEREN'T that way. I wasn't scum then, and I'm not now. You have a very flawed system that you seem to believe works when it's pointed to nothing but town time and time again (you even admit ehunt and Cayvie as well - both town).

Furthermore, it was in no way detrimental to the town for him to have kept me alive because no matter how much talk there was of lynching me, it never happened. Instead, there was an extra town vote on each and every lynch that occurred - a vote that would not have been there if I were dead. Not to mention my voice in the crowd calling out Robz and Theorel even without investigative help.

Know how I pegged them as scum? Gut feeling based on the attitude of the things they hag said.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 07, 2012, 10:52:51 am
And seriously, PPS, now I have found that you put Galzria only behind yourself for towniness, that is ridiculous. What makes you believe him so much?

Call it confirmation bias if you want, but knowing I'm Town and seeing someone else read what I was already reading without me leading them is fairly convincing that they are on my team.

To be fair, I think that YN or manda are the likeliest scum. However, the notion of an Eevee/timchen pair was on my mind and Galzria just threw it out there like a stinking fish for us all to gape at. Who can blame Galzria for showing his hand when the potential pair team up to lynch him? It should be noted that I've got you in the middle of the suspicion deck but you're acting as if I've implicated you when all I've done is acknowledge the viability of Galzria's read on you.

If I want to build a case on anyone here I'm sure I could but I have to run with my gut. My gut says Galzria is town and it has said that from the beginning. It's not about the personality, if I had the same read on you I'd have the same words for a different name.

You and Eevee seem to think he's scum and you've put forth a case to that effect. Why do you suppose no one else has joined your wagon? I may be vocal in my stance on Galzria but the vote tally says a few others are implicitly taking the same stance.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 11:04:55 am
Well we have to rely on others then. I don't see how you can be convinced.

Now I have to think how to proceed.

Hmm galz, now it seems you start to suggest that I am a town with bad read rather than scum huh? Too late for that.

As for your point, well the thing is you cannot convince people using your gut feeling. OK you said robz and theorel. Are you right about frisk in this game? How about Jo in m6?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 07, 2012, 11:14:01 am
Well we have to rely on others then. I don't see how you can be convinced.

Now I have to think how to proceed.

Hmm galz, now it seems you start to suggest that I am a town with bad read rather than scum huh? Too late for that.

As for your point, well the thing is you cannot convince people using your gut feeling. OK you said robz and theorel. Are you right about frisk in this game? How about Jo in m6?

Nope, still absolutely think you're scum.

My voting for CF had nothing to do with reads. It was an attempt to try something new, lynching scum hiding as town, instead of town looking like scum.

I never had a read on Joth in M-VI. If you mean Gruj - that case was made with faulty logic based on a misunderstanding of my own regarding roles.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 07, 2012, 11:15:50 am
Frisk is a prime reason why I've stayed out of the case building business.

I got burned getting wrapped up in the logic which is easy to twist whichever way you want on anyone.

manda gives me the gut read because of her sly play style. Too non-commital for me to feel comfortable with. Eevee and timchen are giving me the willy's for how hard they want to press a wagon and how viciously they turn anything that counters them (more timchen than eevee here).  That said, it's still pro-town play todrive discussion and make waves for pressure so I'm scaling back the suspicion so I have some reserved for the lurky wishy washy play style I'm seeing in manda/YN
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 07, 2012, 11:17:24 am
Seems like Galzria and timchen wont get anywhere with their argument. Young Nick or shark_bait, care to weigh in with your take of the situation?

Btw, despite the slow start, this is shaping up to be an awesome game!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 07, 2012, 11:19:32 am
Seems like Galzria and timchen wont get anywhere with their argument. Young Nick or shark_bait, care to weigh in with your take of the situation?

Haha, yeah, looks like Town isn't going to kill themselves all by themselves today will some scum please step up?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 11:31:59 am
All the other points you made were "but it COULD have been this way! Just like the dying scum (Theorel) said!" You completely ignore one thing:

Things WEREN'T that way. I wasn't scum then, and I'm not now. You have a very flawed system that you seem to believe works when it's pointed to nothing but town time and time again (you even admit ehunt and Cayvie as well - both town).

Furthermore, it was in no way detrimental to the town for him to have kept me alive because no matter how much talk there was of lynching me, it never happened. Instead, there was an extra town vote on each and every lynch that occurred - a vote that would not have been there if I were dead. Not to mention my voice in the crowd calling out Robz and Theorel even without investigative help.

Know how I pegged them as scum? Gut feeling based on the attitude of the things they hag said.
Let me respond more in detail. Yes, my response are possibilities. But we won't know which way things are definitely anyway. Oh and I should say, before your insistence on my fakeclaim everything is still probabilistic; but after that and the development of yesterday I am 100% sure you are scum. I can see how others cannot be 100% sure since they don't know my alliance; but they should have a reasonable doubt higher than 75%, since my arguments why you are saying this are plausible while your arguments why I am saying this is nonsense.

What you are saying here is just confirmation bias. You cannot call a read good just when it turned out well; you need either reasons or good records to support it. And I have good reasons in m6 at that time to doubt ehunt and cayvie, even though they turned out to be town the reason is still valid and should not be ignored. It's like playing dominion. You cannot judge a strategy just based on a single game. And good reasoning is a better road to better strategy than just a few game experience.

Now I am not saying gut feeling based read cannot be good. But you have to look the accuracy of that. So how about your gut feeling about O in m4? frisk in this game? or PPS's feeling toward frisk in this game? For the gut feeling it is just so easy to focus on the part that you are right but neglect the part that you are wrong.

And for m6, the problem is that after the instance of d1 and d2 we just cannot trust you. It would definitely be easier for the town if you have voiced your suspicions and then flipped. And while you can say everything about how accurate your read is, Robz is lynched because his play toward eHal (and the subsequent developments); theorel is lynched because I investigated him. Those are logical arguments instead of gut feelings. Here I am presenting you a logical argument why Galz is scum, even though the logic is probably not as concrete as the two cases in m6.

btw, I actually didn't investigate theorel because I know he is werewolf. I investigated him because I knew he is not mafia. Whether he turned out town or werewolf can both be beneficial.

Pedit: Oh sorry your case is on Grujah in m6 indeed. It was Jo who jumped out claiming catching you on Grujah. My mistakes.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 11:36:31 am
Seems like Galzria and timchen wont get anywhere with their argument. Young Nick or shark_bait, care to weigh in with your take of the situation?

Btw, despite the slow start, this is shaping up to be an awesome game!
Sigh. Awesome game for galzria and the rest of you. Not for me. Frankly speaking I am not interested in convincing people. It would be much more fun if indeed I am lying!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 11:40:42 am
How about this: let us lynch Galzria. If he flipped town; lynch me. I can forfeit my wincon if Galzria is town.
(Galzria you can't complain; if you are sure me and eevee are scum this leads to your victory. I am sad that I cannot offer you to lynch me first because I am not yet sure who your partner is.)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 07, 2012, 11:53:23 am
How about this: let us lynch Galzria. If he flipped town; lynch me. I can forfeit my wincon if Galzria is town.
(Galzria you can't complain; if you are sure me and eevee are scum this leads to your victory. I am sad that I cannot offer you to lynch me first because I am not yet sure who your partner is.)

I can VERY much complain because I put my wincon above my beliefs. If you are indeed town and just say "well, I was wrong, lynch me" I'll be angry as hell.

Even if we lynched you first and I was wrong and you came up town, I would fight tooth and nail against my lynch tomorrow trying to save the game for town. That's why I proposed that question last night.

I think your claim is absolutely unbelievable - but I am willing to admit that I could be wrong. Not willing enough to cease fighting for your lynch - because I DO think it was scum play and not just terrible town play - but I'm absolutely not willing to sacrifice my wincon, and the wincon of the other town playing this game.

IF you're town, that's an idiotic suggestion.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 11:56:45 am
I agree with you on this Galz. Hopefully that can show how certain I am that you are scum.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 07, 2012, 11:57:42 am
IF you're town, that's an idiotic suggestion.

Agreed

Vote: timchen
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 12:01:56 pm
@PPS: if you were to lynch me, please promise me you will lynch Galzria and then manda after I flipped town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 12:06:37 pm
And sigh. You see, you just look at how reasonable his previous post is but overlooked how unreasonable he lurked after my accusation on him, revived after my angry townie theory, and the overall unreasonableness of his argument against me.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 07, 2012, 12:07:11 pm
Vote Count 2-7

shark_bait (1): Young Nick
timchen (2): Galzria, pingpongsam
Galzria (2): Eevee, timchen

Not Voting {2}: manda2014, shark_bait

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 07, 2012, 12:22:25 pm
And sigh. You see, you just look at how reasonable his previous post is but overlooked how unreasonable he lurked after my accusation on him, revived after my angry townie theory, and the overall unreasonableness of his argument against me.

I have never lurked, in any game of Mafia I have ever played. If I didn't say something, it's because I either was busy irl, busy keeping track of other games first, or didn't feel the need to respond because there was nothing worth responding to.

The only people with more posts in this thread than me is you and Eevee (and Eevee by a small margin). Young Nick and Manda have almost half the number of posts I do. I don't put much weight by post count in terms of scumminess, but to claim I lurked is blatantly false.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 12:28:21 pm
Ok. Whatever. But then I assume you later found something out of nothing to respond to? A large part of your response yesterday was about things that I said before which you said you had nothing to respond.

And comparing with others by post counts is just irrelevant.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 07, 2012, 12:31:31 pm
Is timchen typically this hotheaded and reactionary?

I have to say my suspicions on him are low but that ploy of I'll get on the cross and kill Town if Galz flips Town is just so over the top I can't overlook it.
That is, imho, inexcusable Town behavior. If you're wrong then eat crow and try to figure out where the real scum are. Making it a kamikaze move that at this stage of the game means loss of the game reeks of scum knowing they have one other member totally in the shadows to pick off the remining Town in the final days.

IIRC, Frisk made similar overtures and it made me suspect him even more. He flipped town which leads me to think maybe the martyr ploy isn't quite as scummy as it looks but it must be noted that was D1 where the stakes were considerably lower.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 07, 2012, 12:35:59 pm
Yes, timchen got quite worked up during mafia VI too, he was town there.

Also, the man posts a lot, surely you can find some stupid things he has said. He would probably like to take at least some of them back too. That doesnt mean the good stuff he has said should be forgotten. I still have a town read on timchen.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 12:57:54 pm
In a sense yes. Because at this point I have 100% certainty that Galzria is scum.

If he is not scum I am willing to lose. In that case I am kinda sorry about the other townies, but I think the fault is at him, not me.
 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 07, 2012, 01:10:05 pm
In a sense yes. Because at this point I have 100% certainty that Galzria is scum.

If he is not scum I am willing to lose. In that case I am kinda sorry about the other townies, but I think the fault is at him, not me.

100%? Really? Lol, I wish I was that sure!

It certainly isn't Galzrias fault in that scenario though. If he is town, I'm sure he is doing his best. Try to stay objective timchen, if you get too emotionally worked up by this, your message gets lost in the way you deliver it.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 07, 2012, 01:17:23 pm
Calmer heads prevail.
I think timchen is just too explosive for me to feel like it's true scum play.

Speaking of the calmer heads:
Vote: manda
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 01:20:31 pm
Maybe. But I am really that certain. See, I give town Galz the chance to back up. In case that he is biased for some reason and said things that he was not so sure of. The point is just that his case against us is bullshit. And town galz should have the ability to realize that.

But he didn't. He even used that to frame me. So for me, case closed on Galzria. The remaining task is to hunt the remaining partner. But if the town is willing to waste a lynch on me to make sure my read on Galz is right, they cannot really blame me that I cause the town to lose can they?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 01:24:12 pm
@PPS: Calmer heads prevail at getting lynched? That is probably not a good way to head toward...

But ok, on the logical level, even if I highly suspect that manda is the remaining mafia, I don't think it is the lynch for today. Problem is, I am not that sure on this one, and if we were wrong, the chance that we can lynch galzria next day will become even lower.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 07, 2012, 01:27:21 pm
Calmer heads prevail.
I think timchen is just too explosive for me to feel like it's true scum play.

Speaking of the calmer heads:
Vote: manda

I absolutely cannot believe that I agree with this... But I've been leaning more and more this way these last 24 hours. If I'm wrong on double guessing myself I'll be pissed. >:[ But nonetheless, I'll do the ultimate in scummy moves, I'll back down: unvote.

Basically, he's been way too irrational for my tastes as scum, and even my biggest case against him based on logic - his fakeclaim - is explainable by just being bad town play.

PPS, why should I vote for Manda, besides hardcore lurking and being buddy with me during the times of disagreement with Timchen (although you were too... Your reasoning I find more genuine)? I find Young Nick much scummier, and still think either could be paired with Eevee (although to his credit he's appeared a lot more town lately ... Though that hasn't been difficult if indeed Timchen and I are both town).
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 01:34:43 pm
Galz, too late to do this now. If you did it yesterday I would have reconsidered.

There is no logic in your biggest case against me. If you viewed it as a fakeclaim it is always bad play, either by scum or by town. The only reasonable play is what I explained.

Being unable to see this repeatedly nails it for me that you are scum.

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 07, 2012, 01:43:32 pm
Galz, too late to do this now. If you did it yesterday I would have reconsidered.

There is no logic in your biggest case against me. If you viewed it as a fakeclaim it is always bad play, either by scum or by town. The only reasonable play is what I explained.

Being unable to see this repeatedly nails it for me that you are scum.

And yet, my friend, you're wrong. So what does that say about you? I'm willing to admit that I could be wrong, while you are not. I'm willing to play to a town wincon, while you are willing to actively sacrifice it (assuming you're town).

Your fakeclaim was quite logical from a scum perspective. It's been done before. But it's absolutely terrible town play. I really didn't want to think it's the latter, but your complete irrationality and refusal to play to a wincon that you claim to have just supports the former too much. You're playing town terribly.

So now I am forced to find where scum are playing smartly instead. You are more than welcome to continue your blind crusade against me however. I on the other hand, will actually try to win this game for town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 01:50:46 pm
I did not fakeclaim, so it's not a terrible play.

I refuse to play a wincon? LOL. Framing again. My wincon is to lynch all scum. You are scum. I want to lynch you. End of story. And even if I refuse to play my wincon, how does that support that I am scum? Seriously it is you who is irrational and illogical. I am just using more aggressive words.

I am still playing my wincon. Because I know the first step can be nothing else than lynching you. I am perfectly rational.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 01:53:36 pm
Sigh. I am tired of this. But I know Galz you are enjoying it. Fine.

Let's do a poll instead of direct accusation. Who finds that galzria's accusation of me about my alleged fakeclaim has any merit? If more than half of the town does, I'll just vote whoever Galz asks me to.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 07, 2012, 01:58:34 pm
Sigh. I am tired of this. But I know Galz you are enjoying it. Fine.

Let's do a poll instead of direct accusation. Who finds that galzria's accusation of me about my alleged fakeclaim has any merit? If more than half of the town does, I'll just vote whoever Galz asks me to.
Now that would be not playing your wincon!

But no, I dont think it has any merit whatsoever.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 07, 2012, 02:13:51 pm
If timchen's play hadn't been so insane I would have bought that "fakeclaim" as him being the Town cop. I wanted to leave it alone because I thought it was the claim and I thought it best to act as if it never happened.

At the risk of playing poorly for Town it has been the one thing lending credence to his play on Galz, maybe he really is 100% certain that Galz is scum because he investigated him.

If timchen isn't the cop then Galzria's case against him making such a claim has some merit because it is piss poor town play and relatively safe scum play.

I'm not trying to rolefish here and really would rather no one claim at this point but this is my basis for lending merit to Galz's case which timchen did ask for specifically.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 02:26:31 pm
No I can specifically deny that I didn't investigate him.

And I will keep my word. So PPS, do you believe Galz's argument about my alleged fakeclaim?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 02:39:37 pm
Oops maybe my first sentence is ambiguous.

I didn't investigate Galzria.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 07, 2012, 02:40:01 pm
No I can specifically deny that I didn't investigate him.

And I will keep my word. So PPS, do you believe Galz's argument about my alleged fakeclaim?

If timchen isn't the cop then Galzria's case against him making such a claim has some merit because it is piss poor town play and relatively safe scum play.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 02:43:52 pm
Good. So 2 votes now on Galz's argument has some merit? (assume that Glaz himself thinks so)

Two more then I'll vote as Galz wishes.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 07, 2012, 02:46:41 pm
Good. So 2 votes now on Galz's argument has some merit? (assume that Glaz himself thinks so)

Two more then I'll vote as Galz wishes.
Why oh why are you doing this? Earlier you said you are 100% sure Galzria is mafia..
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 07, 2012, 02:52:28 pm
Good. So 2 votes now on Galz's argument has some merit? (assume that Glaz himself thinks so)

Two more then I'll vote as Galz wishes.
Why oh why are you doing this? Earlier you said you are 100% sure Galzria is mafia..

Yeah, it's once more a pretty ridiculous thing to say or do. If he thinks I'm scum, he should vote for me. End of story. If others think my case has merit or not is irrelevant.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 07, 2012, 02:54:01 pm
Good. So 2 votes now on Galz's argument has some merit? (assume that Glaz himself thinks so)

Two more then I'll vote as Galz wishes.
Why oh why are you doing this? Earlier you said you are 100% sure Galzria is mafia..

Yeah, it's once more a pretty ridiculous thing to say or do. If he thinks I'm scum, he should vote for me. End of story. If others think my case has merit or not is irrelevant.
Usually people who've lost it like that have been town though, wouldnt you agree?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 02:54:25 pm
No it is not ridiculous.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 02:54:46 pm
And eevee, I've not lost.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 07, 2012, 02:56:20 pm
Good. So 2 votes now on Galz's argument has some merit? (assume that Glaz himself thinks so)

Two more then I'll vote as Galz wishes.
Why oh why are you doing this? Earlier you said you are 100% sure Galzria is mafia..

Yeah, it's once more a pretty ridiculous thing to say or do. If he thinks I'm scum, he should vote for me. End of story. If others think my case has merit or not is irrelevant.
Usually people who've lost it like that have been town though, wouldnt you agree?

Why do you think I unvoted him?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 07, 2012, 03:11:04 pm
Good. So 2 votes now on Galz's argument has some merit? (assume that Glaz himself thinks so)

Two more then I'll vote as Galz wishes.
Why oh why are you doing this? Earlier you said you are 100% sure Galzria is mafia..

Yeah, it's once more a pretty ridiculous thing to say or do. If he thinks I'm scum, he should vote for me. End of story. If others think my case has merit or not is irrelevant.
Usually people who've lost it like that have been town though, wouldnt you agree?

Why do you think I unvoted him?
Probably because of that! Duh..

@timchen

Saying you are 100% sure someone is mafia and then saying "if enough people think x, I'll just do whatever that person says" counts to me as "losing it" in the context of forum mafia. No offence meant!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 07, 2012, 03:30:57 pm
New plan for future games.

Become raving lunatic. If you survive the initial backlash become obvtown for remainder of game.

 8)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 03:31:40 pm
@eevee: I am only going to vote as he said, not other things.

Come on, YN, Manda, and sharky, I am waiting for your answers!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 03:32:54 pm
@PPS: call me lunatic if you want. But what you should do is look back between my argument and Galzria's. Seriously, if you are with him, tell me how can a scum play such fakeclaim.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 07, 2012, 03:37:28 pm
Whew... I feel like I just ran a marathon (read all of D2 for the past hour and a half).  I feel like Galz's initial accusation of tc definitely had merit.  I was not buying tc's arguments against Galz, however I also did not want tc to be lynched today... until making it to this afternoon's posts.  In multiple posts this afternoon, tc has made posts that equate to a mafia trying to secure lylo for his scumbuddy by forcing a mislynch first.  These sort of "lynch them first (and then me when they flip town)" reek scum to me.  So much so that I am willing to Vote: timchen because of them. 

@tc, would you care to explain your ultimatum of kill galz then me?  If you're town, that's an illogical route to take because that will result in loss.  If you're mafia, it's the logical path to ensuring lylo for partner.  Therefore, because it is illogical for town, it only makes sense if you're mafia.  Unless of course you're town and your hunch was right, but still, unless you're cop and certain that Galz is mafia, that doesn't seem like a very helpful statement.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 03:39:58 pm
So, three votes, one more to go!

@shark: it is easy to explain. Because I am 100% sure that Galzria is mafia. So the remaining clause does not matter.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 07, 2012, 03:41:19 pm
Vote Count 2-8

shark_bait (1): Young Nick
timchen (1): shark_bait
Galzria (2): Eevee, timchen
manda2014 (1): pingpongsam

Not Voting {2}: manda2014, Galzria

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 03:41:32 pm
Oh, but let me double check: so are you saying that the accusation he made that "timchen fakeclaimed, withdrawed, then fabricated a story for it" has some merit?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 07, 2012, 03:42:44 pm
So you're done softclaiming then?  I take your last statement as I'm cop and I investigated galz and he IS mafia.  If you're just plain VT, you're playing a risky game that has loss written all over it.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 07, 2012, 03:43:18 pm
So, three votes, one more to go!

@shark: it is easy to explain. Because I am 100% sure that Galzria is mafia. So the remaining clause does not matter.

Previous post responding to this statement.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 03:43:58 pm
No I am not a cop. I specifically denied that. Galz's play made me 100% sure that he is mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 07, 2012, 03:45:54 pm
It still doesn't make sense why a town tc would risk the entire game on your feeling that galz is mafia. 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 03:46:18 pm
Oh or maybe I should not have denied that hard. If I were a cop, I haven't investigated Galzria yet.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 03:47:20 pm
Can't you see that? Partly it is because I am angry at you guys. specifically PPS. I am kinda of sorry for eevee though.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 03:47:59 pm
Also to correct, it is not my feeling. It is my logical deduction.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 07, 2012, 03:58:46 pm
I'm more saying that you didn't have much merit to vote against him in the first place. You tried very hard to make a wagon against him and he tried to refute it by calling you out.  Specifically damning for you in my eyes was the fact that  you said you had your reasons (and would reveal if necessary).  Your reasons as you later claimed involved an analysis of the frisk wagon including conjectures about where scum would/woudn't be as well as 3 posts between Galz/Eevee early D2 that confirmed in your eyes that Galz/Eevee were not working together.  Therefore, since you knew Eevee wasn't scum, you came to the conclusion that Galz was scum.  I didn't like the way you pushed the logic to drive the Galz lynch so regardless of how he responded, I guess you could say I saw your motives are more scummy than his.

 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 07, 2012, 03:59:57 pm
And I just saw your claim of logical deduction... and realize why we disagree.  I think Eevee is scummy.  Therefore, I am doomed to not agree with your argument.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 04:11:41 pm
@Sharky... you still understood me wrong. Awfully wrong.

Galz's case has nothing to do with eevee. Galz's case is just that he insisted the theory that I have fakeclaimed. That response is NOT self defense as I have said a few times already. My eevee-galz theory does not point toward galz. If you want to know further just read my posts a bit more carefully.

But anyway, I'll count you as a vote now. So three votes! YN or Manda, come in for a vote?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 07, 2012, 04:18:37 pm
unvote

Head hurts from thinking too much.  Need time to think.

@tc, I will try to look more carefully.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 07, 2012, 04:20:58 pm
Phone lurking, so I can't really post much of anything. I'll read over everything on the bigger screen and post when I get home. So a couple of hours, maybe.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 07, 2012, 05:01:26 pm
Quick, let's go for the trifecta! Let's kill Shark_bait!

(this post is not serious and is made in response to events in other mafia games)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 07, 2012, 05:04:17 pm
+100 for mafia related humor
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 07, 2012, 05:29:31 pm
I am through #959 and have scanned the rest for votes. In the scanning, I have seen many people asking for me to weigh in.

As of #959, I say that Galzria and timchen's battle needs re-reading because Galzria makes it seemingly unnecessarily confusing. Due to that, and gut feeling, and quotes that I can't pull right now, I think Galzria looks scummier of the two. That timchen is willing to devote his own life to the cause says something about how sure he stands. timchen does look to be leading the discussion a lot; I want to see others doing this. You learn a lot about someone when they are the ones leading discussion, provoking discussion.

I, like manda, am not yet taking official sides (re: voting) in the Galzria vs. timchen dispute due to a hesitant play style. I want my vote to count when I make it. For this reason, I am not much of a fan of people saying that my S_B case is just a ruse. PPS said something along those lines. I think it has serious merits. Somewhere in my scanning of recent posts, PPS (I think?) mentioned lunatic play either gets you d1 lynch or obvtown status. S_B is a nice example of this. timchen and others don't discuss him as a possibility often enough for my liking.

That's all for now.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 05:33:09 pm
Hi Young_Nick, so do you think Galz's case on me has some merit? From the post you wrote above the answer seems to be yes...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 07, 2012, 07:14:40 pm
Okay, I'm on my computer now. I'll read the last few pages and then post.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 07, 2012, 07:20:49 pm
timchen does look to be leading the discussion a lot; I want to see others doing this. You learn a lot about someone when they are the ones leading discussion, provoking discussion.

'round here we have a saying, "Let it Begin with Me".

Quote
I am not much of a fan of people saying that my S_B case is just a ruse. PPS said something along those lines.

I didn't mean to say your vote on Sharky was a de facto ruse just that if it were it supported YN/Sharky scumpair from D2 onwards. I qualified the implication with the fact that such D1 play would be ballsy and I have to say neither you nor Sharky have struck me as ballsy.

Quote
PPS (I think?) mentioned lunatic play either gets you d1 lynch or obvtown status. S_B is a nice example of this.
Very good point.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 07, 2012, 07:53:28 pm
Okay. Wow. There's sooooo much here. Here we go.

First of all
Hi Young_Nick, so do you think Galz's case on me has some merit? From the post you wrote above the answer seems to be yes...

You really think that's what his post is saying? Because he specifically says he sees Galzira as MORE scummy than you... either I'm totally reading that wrong, or you really are losing it.

Regarding the timchen/Galzira conflict, the more I read it, the more tim just seems way too crazy to be mafia. Is that a clever mafia play? Maybe. Maybe not. However, if tim isn't scum then I think he's playing town terribly. The notorious "fakeclaim" plus his posts about "not investigating Galzira" that make it sound like he's claiming to be the town cop and then just plain going crazy don't do anything except make him look like scum.

Galz still seems like town to me, and as I was reading I really thought tim was probably scum, but now he just seem SO CRAZY that I don't know. I'm gonna be really peeved if they're both town, and the mafia are just loving this right now.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 09:39:49 pm
@manda: I am not playing crazy. But I get your vote. About YN it is just that he is still evaluating between us, which must mean that he still thinks Galz has some merit right? (So you see, my question is not to ask you guys to choose a side between us...)

So, at least 4 vote (Galz, PPS, Sharky, manda) decided that Galz's accusation of me
1. fakeclaimed
2. withdrawed immediately
3. found a fake reasoning for it
has some merit. As per town request, I for now will be voting following how Galz vote.
Unvote

Specifically, for now I will vote whoever immediately Galzria specifically asks me to vote. Without specific request I will vote whoever he votes whenever I like. I will NOT vote someone he didn't vote for without his clear instruction.

I will continue follow this rule in the next game day and after, until the game ends. I will keep my word. If I break it, I will play no more mafia on this forum.

Happy playing, town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 07, 2012, 09:50:16 pm
trololol
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 09:51:45 pm
Dear town,

For those you think Galzria is definitely town, you have nothing to be worried about. You think galzria's argument is at least to some extent reasonable (and more reasonable than mine) so I believe you will think my choice of listening to him is wise.

What I promised to do is nothing more than giving the almighty wise Galzria some more power. Now effectively his vote counted twice. If we now follow his good gut feeling we shall win this game in no time.

Unfortunately, for those who think there is some decent chance that Galzria is scum, we are now effectively at lylo.
As far as I can see, you now have three choices. I'll list it from the worst to the best:

1: try to lynch Galzria's partner. This is really not that a good idea. If you hit it, you are still at lylo next day, and Galzria will still control 2 votes. And if you missed, gg.

2. lynch me. This is a "safe" choice, as you won't lynch someone unreasonable. But I personally can guarantee you 100% that if you lynch me you will still be at lylo tomorrow.

3. lynch Galzria. The only down side of this choice is that if Galzria is not scum, we will be at lylo tomorrow. If he is scum, we will actually be not at lylo the next game day, as I will be again of free will.

Dear town, please be careful of your choice. We can still win if Galz is mafia. Just think clearly before you vote.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 09:52:20 pm
@PPS: no trolling. I am dead serious.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 10:00:10 pm
@PPS: let me also remind you that you especially need to think clearly. As far as I can see manda is not going to vote for Galzria. So the town really needs your vote to get Galzria (need you, eevee, YN, sharky) if Galz were scum and you were town.

But please don't think I am forcing you to vote for Galzria. Actually I am already imagining your face when the game ended, mafia Galzria won, and thanking most to you.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 07, 2012, 10:13:13 pm
Ok, I'm seriously contemplating just policylynching timchen who I'm pretty sure is town and giving mafia the win. I would do that, but I'd feel bad for ruining the fun for everyone else. Which is what you are doing here, timchen. You are more anti-town than any of the mafia! Everyone should always play mafia to their wincon and not pull crap like this. I'm hoping you'll reconsider tomorrow. Try to take this game less personal.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 07, 2012, 10:13:36 pm
@PPS: no trolling. I am dead serious.
If that is not trolling, then wat de fuq is?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 07, 2012, 10:14:30 pm
If Galzria is mafia and wins this game, he wont even thank you for it but rather blame you for giving him the win when all he wanted to do was fight fairly. Just saying.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 07, 2012, 10:17:12 pm
.... Yeah...

Tim, you should vote for me. It's the only fair way I can think to deal with this lunacy.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 10:18:32 pm
@eevee: you guys can still lynch Galzria today. If you lynch me you are playing against your own wincon. I just want the rest townies to be more responsible for their votes. If Galzria is scum and the town loses, it's not like I haven't warned them.

While I will keep my word I am still extremely supportive of a Galzria lynch. My voice will not be constrained either.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 10:20:12 pm
Sure. As you wish. Vote: Galzria

Still, to the rest of town, if you mislynch someone not me today and Galzria is scum, you will lose. I will keep my word.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 10:26:27 pm
Oh btw, if Galz you survive today but choose to NK me tonight I will be very unhappy. That will be playing against your wincon.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 07, 2012, 10:28:39 pm
Sure. As you wish. Vote: Galzria

Still, to the rest of town, if you mislynch someone not me today and Galzria is scum, you will lose. I will keep my word.
Why oh why cant you just play this game like the rest of us? Look, I agree with you on Galzria, I think he is mafia. But I dont think it's at all unreasonable if some other people see things differently. And they could be scum not wanting to believe you too, in fact at least one of them has to be. I could see you reacting like that if you actually were dealing with morons who refused to lynch someone you investigated or something like that, but that is not what this is. This is an extremely common situation in a game of mafia. Having a case that you feel is strong but not getting others behind it is an inherent part of the game. You absolutely should not take it personally! You absolutely should not react to it by sabotaging your own team "because they are fools and I'm right". Look, whether you are right or wrong about Galzria is irrelevant here. Your play is anti-town either way. You are not playing to your wincon if you are town. I hope you take a step back and try to look objectively what you are doing here. Maybe open this thread tomorrow after a good night's sleep or something.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 07, 2012, 10:32:58 pm
Vote Count 2-9

shark_bait (1): Young Nick
Galzria (2): Eevee, timchen
manda2014 (1): pingpongsam

Not Voting {3}: manda2014, Galzria, shark_bait

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 10:36:24 pm
Because the others won't listen to me when I was talking logic. And I had enough. I am directing this specifically toward those who are town, and I am not angry at Galzria or his partner at all.

I don't see how my play is anti-town here due to Galz's fair sportsmanship. My vote lies where it would have been. (well, that can change on his will of course...) I just want to add weight to the decision of the rest of the town. Instead of me convincing them, see if they can convince themselves.

(And yeah, I am sorry, I can't really help, for those who refuse to reason or listen I rather lose with them than try to convince them to death and pull a win.)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 07, 2012, 10:56:04 pm
Oh, for anyone who is still interested in the logical me and wanted to investigate between me and Galzria, please refer to page 38 and prior (the earlier, the clearer it is I believe). I believe I have stated enough to convince any reasonable townie that the case Galzria on me is nonsense.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 07, 2012, 11:34:28 pm
Still not at home. Just quick-posting. Won't read and fully post until tomorrow. In response to timchen's response to me: I was saying he looks scummier. The fact that Galzria controls your vote is absolute chaos. Need to read everything, woah.
Double vote power is scary. Not posting anything of substance.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 07, 2012, 11:35:04 pm
Still not at home. Just quick-posting. Won't read and fully post until tomorrow. In response to timchen's response to me: I was saying he looks scummier. The fact that Galzria controls your vote is absolute chaos. Need to read everything, woah.
Double vote power is scary. Not posting anything of substance.

I was saying that Galzria looks scummier.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 07, 2012, 11:45:33 pm
I just.... what the hell?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 08, 2012, 01:15:54 am
.... Yeah...

Tim, you should vote for me. It's the only fair way I can think to deal with this lunacy.
Actually, I suddenly realized during shower. Is this not a scum confession? What does fairness mean between townies anyway?

Why would a townie say such things? I would imagine as a townie he would have said something like ok, I will not ask you to vote for anyone, unless there is town consensus and we need your vote to lynch.

... but I will keep my word. Galzria, if you want me to unvote you you had better say early...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 08, 2012, 01:24:54 am
(http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/250x250/24608003.jpg)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 08, 2012, 06:23:35 am
I think Galzria and timchen are both Town. If Voltgloss hadn't spelled out the roles I would swear timchen had some crazy restricted role that required this sort of behavior. Having Galzria's vote carry twice is super if Galzria is hitting scum but it effectively eliminates a town asset in timchen's analysis and possible contrarian vote. It is as anti-town as it gets, although unless this is a whacked out, balls to the wall, scumplay from Galzria/timchen I don't think this condemns timchen to being Mafia. I would support a policy lynch as well but in this small of a game it destroys our chances of winning and if, just if, timchen is Mafia then a policy lynch wouldn't necessarily be deserved.

The long of it is we are supposed to be playing this game according to a mostly unwritten subset of unenforcable rules we have tacitly agreed to abide by. timchen is violating this "pact". If this were a kickball game (haha) timchen has basically announced that from now on, regardless of play on the field, when the ball gets to him he is going to kick it to second base. This works great in the 30% of cases where we need timchen to kick the ball to second base ASAP but it spells disaster in the remaining 70% of cases where we need timchen to be reading the game and kick the ball anywhere but second base. We no longer have a team mate but a slot machine and it ruins the fun for everyone involved, I suspect even the opposing team. It feels as though timchen has gotten so frustrated with this game that he's determined to make it equally frustrating for everyone else in retaliation even though our only fault has been playing the game as designed.

The short of it is this constitutes unsportsmanlike behavior obnoxious to all players regardless of alignment.

I ask that timchen reconsider and let us all commence playing this game as designed which was explicitly a vanilla Mafia game tailored for beginners. If we wanted game warping roles we would have signed up for a game that involved such things.

/soapbox and apologies for a lengthy post that was otherwise useless to progressing the game
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 08, 2012, 06:26:35 am
@timchen: if Galzria gets lynched/whacked and flips town how does that work for you going forward in the game?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 08, 2012, 10:22:58 am
I saw everyone has a misconception here. Seriously, why my play brings less fun for everyone? my play is perfectly legal according to the rules. And it's no morgrim, as I have announced before hand how and where my vote will go. Everyone should just play their own game, with the knowledge that Galzria controls my vote. I can actually do this without announcing it (ie, just vote the person who Galzria votes at a random time) and that will not violate the rules either, but I would say that will be something that ruins the fun of this game.

Just think of this as a new rule I added to myself. And see if you want to lynch Galzria under these circumstances.

@PPS: as I said, if Galzria flips town, I am willing to be lynched even if that meant we lost. But if the remaining town is against it it's not like I can lynch myself on my own. I am always going to play with logic and reason as best as I can.

(Technically to play with logic and reason as best as I can means that I should not lynch myself no matter what. But I am just so sure that Galzria is scum at this point, and that is all what I want you guys to know by saying that if he flips town I am willing to lynch myself.)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 08, 2012, 10:24:50 am
If what you are asking is how my vote will go if Galzria is dead, it will go back to originally how it works. i.e., I will again vote based on my judgement who is the likeliest scum (for now it points toward manda).
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 08, 2012, 10:30:27 am
Just think of this as a new rule I added to myself. And see if you want to lynch Galzria under these circumstances.

It ruins the fun because you are abandoning your wincon. If you were still playing to it, you wouldnt add these rules to yourself.

I try to expand on the kickball analogy: Its like we are playing paintball and you tell your teammates "ok, I'm going to rush through the middle of the field every game, its not my fault if you fail to cover me and I die, this loss is on the rest of you for failing to cover me if that happens!!!".
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 08, 2012, 10:39:03 am
Well, I have no intention of controlling Timchen's vote, so at this point the whole thing is largely ignorable to me.

Timchen, your order is this: Of you are town, vote for whoever you like. If you are scum, vote for yourself... j/k Vote for whoever you like.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 08, 2012, 10:42:17 am
@eevee: I am not abandoning my wincon. Can't you see I am still trying to get people voting on Galzria? Unless both YN and sharky agree to vote for Galzria whether I voted for him doesn't really matter. Think my action as a desperate measure to get people think more carefully on Galzria.

Thing is, I have a feeling that you get better understanding of the situation between me and Galzria, because you were following it closely. You realize how much time Galz chose not to reply, and then changed his mind. You read each article after you have some thoughts about the previous ones. The others now have no such privileges. What they saw is a wall of text with confusing logic. (My argument is to some extent complicated by nature and Galz's is meant to confuse people even more.)

As far as I can see YN is just confused by it, and sharky still got me wrong. PPS I am not sure but it seems to me that he likes Galz's style of play so much that he just labels him town (IMO that is what he did in M6 too) and that I cannot help. And I assume Manda to be the remaining mafia so nothing can be done there.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 08, 2012, 10:43:40 am
@Galz: Got you. My intention as town right now (as I announced) is to vote anyone you vote for.
Unvote
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 08, 2012, 10:47:40 am
I'm not all that confused, but more pressed for time. Rush-reading such an argument does nothing to help internalize the situation. I'm refraining from posting much on it until I can give it its proper attention. I've read most of the recent posting (p42+) but am not yet caught up. Not too much time now. Secretly posting from work.

For now, the only thing that I can say for certain, I already said...er demonstrated:
(http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/250x250/24608003.jpg)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 08, 2012, 10:51:58 am
I am sorry about it Young_Nick  ;)

@PPS: I found your assertion that both me and Galzria are town quite interesting. I would assume you saying this knowing yourself is also town. If that is the case, then there are no scum on the first 4 people on the frisk wagon. Can you explain how it is possible for both of the scum to refuse to lynch a townie for such a long time?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 08, 2012, 10:54:06 am
Vote: Manda

Pro-lurker, and while I really found YN scummy D1, I didn't get the same feeling that he was trying to play up mine and Timchen's conflict today. If, as I now strongly believe, Tim and I are both town (Tim, master props to you if you are pulling this wild-ass crazy as Mafia), then I need to focus on who has been happy to encourage it along.

Eevee and Manda stand out, PPS is slightly behind that. YN and Sharkie have read null/confused to me.

Manda gave off a town read to me D1. She's been playing safe all game. And her lurker playstyle has gotten a handful of Mafia through to victory in previous games.

If it's not Timchen or I, this feels like a good place to start.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 08, 2012, 10:55:14 am
Vote:Manda

But I have to say in my heart I still want to lynch Galzria first.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 08, 2012, 10:56:34 am
And don't forget manda is L-1 now, and if galz is scum and manda is not, lynching her meant scum galz's victory.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 08, 2012, 10:59:53 am
manda, rush over here and defend yourself now!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 08, 2012, 11:00:00 am
I am sorry about it Young_Nick  ;)

@PPS: I found your assertion that both me and Galzria are town quite interesting. I would assume you saying this knowing yourself is also town. If that is the case, then there are no scum on the first 4 people on the frisk wagon. Can you explain how it is possible for both of the scum to refuse to lynch a townie for such a long time?

Put yourself in their shoes: A no-lynch benefits them, as they start the game with a free NK basically. If there's no chance of a wagon forming on one of them, why SHOULD they do the scummy thing of pushing a town wagon? Add into the fact that a wagoneer died, and not somebody off the wagon, and there is a decent chance neither Mafia were on. I stated my belief in this very early in the day.

Consider as well that f.DS has never actually reached no-lynch, we've always lynched at deadline. There's every reason to believe that it would've happened here. The only two wagons that could tip were CF, and myself. Both town. So why in the world would they have voted CF? Let town do the ugly work... Because inevitably they always do.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 08, 2012, 11:01:14 am
manda, rush over here and defend yourself now!

Your scummate getting close to lynch? Didn't see that coming, did you?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 08, 2012, 11:08:39 am
manda, rush over here and defend yourself now!

Your scummate getting close to lynch? Didn't see that coming, did you?
Lol. Lynching someone because you say so worries me a lot, given how I still think there is a very good chance you are scum. If we lynch a townie and mafia kills at night, have 3 townies and two mafia left so lylo? Then if we hit scum (say we lynced manda today, we'd probably lynch you tomorrow is she was town) and mafia would kill again at night, we'd be at 2 townies and mafia? Am I right to think we still have room for one mistake (even in the worst case scenario of no power role / power role dead before it matters)?

I do acknowledge the case for manda (lurkiness etc), but a) she has done some moderately townie things, although nothing that huge and b) the case is fairly weak and now we have her at l-1 which worries me.

I am fine with pursuing the manda case but it would make me more comfortable if someone unvoted so she can at least defend herself when she gets here.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 08, 2012, 11:13:28 am
@eevee: no, if manda is town and Galz is scum, we cannot make the mistake of lynching her. This is because Galzria controls my vote. So if he is scum and manda is not he will control 3 votes tomorrow and is already majority.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 08, 2012, 11:15:30 am
@eevee: no, if manda is town and Galz is scum, we cannot make the mistake of lynching her. This is because Galzria controls my vote. So if he is scum and manda is not he will control 3 votes tomorrow and is already majority.
And yet you say you are playing to your wincon? >ĹPOGKAÖOLÖGAÖAMÖlgm aÖLkmgsömaö lseagpa nm
This is infuriating.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 08, 2012, 11:20:00 am
Yes. I believe Galzria is scum. The best chance for me to win is to lynch him today. To achieve that I think I have to sacrifice the tiny chance that manda is town AND the town decides to lynch her.

But here's something interesting: if PPS you are not scum, and Galz is partner with either YN or sharky, they can just come in and quick hammer. And the scum wins. So PPS you probably should unvote for now if you are town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 08, 2012, 11:22:11 am
Or ok, that is a scary thought. Unvote. I'll keep my promise though. For now I'll only vote for manda, just not sure when. Or unless Galz explicitly commands me doing so.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 08, 2012, 11:24:11 am
I never told you to in the first place.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 08, 2012, 11:25:17 am
I said in the first place if you say nothing I will vote for whoever you votes for, whenever I want.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 08, 2012, 11:31:12 am
I said in the first place if you say nothing I will vote for whoever you votes for, whenever I want.

That's your choice, not mine.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 08, 2012, 11:32:41 am
True. The fact that you now have double voting power does not change though.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 08, 2012, 11:49:37 am
Vote Count 2-10

shark_bait (1): Young Nick
Galzria (1): Eevee
manda2014 (2): pingpongsam, Galzria

Not Voting {3}: manda2014, shark_bait, timchen

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 08, 2012, 01:04:41 pm
There will be no scum quick hammer on manda because there doesn't appear to be good reason for a scum bussing with town at each other's throats.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 08, 2012, 02:42:09 pm
@PPS: you do have a point that no quick hammer does imply that Manda is scummy (from my point of view Galz buses her.) But it's not that certain as YN and sharky do not seem to be online much. I currently have no problem about your vote staying where it is. But if such that either YN or sharky drops their vote on Manda as well, and Galz explicitly requests me to vote for her, can you unvote then? (I think in your theory this probably is not that likely to happen, but just in case)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 08, 2012, 04:17:17 pm
Wow, go to work and everyone tries to kill you XD

Okay but in all seriousness, all this business with timchen has me so utterly confused. Every explanation timchen has put forward for his behavior just seems to ridiculous to me. He says it's a desperate play to get us to lynch Galz so that his vote goes back to normal, but there's no way of knowing that's going to work. If we weren't so close to lylo, I'd advocate for a policy lynch, but as it is... I don't know what to do. It's such crazy play that it makes me think that either timchen is town or they're both scum. I really doubt scum would ever promise town a vote, and if he is scum he can't abandon the crazy if Galz hits his scumbuddy or everyone wil be crazy suspicious of him. I guess it could be a really insane coordinated scum move but it still seems way too ridiculous...

What do you guys think is the possibility of one of the two of them being our cop?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 08, 2012, 04:41:03 pm
Manda, what do u mean you don't know if it is going to work? If galz is dead I then have no promises to keep. And my goal of lynching the obv scum in my eyes is fulfilled so I won't have to appeal to extreme measures.

About the cop, again I can ensure you that if I were the cop, I didn't investigate galzria.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 08, 2012, 10:15:20 pm
Dead silence here... apparently people don't find this series turns of events that interesting...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 08, 2012, 10:44:13 pm
Just got into the hotel room from an exhausting day. Have to go at it early tomorrow on roughly 6 hours of sleep. Will check back in tomorrow early afternoon and will likely have something to weigh in on. Meantime, far too exhausted to read much less cogitate. Just checking in since my morning posts are usually clockwork.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 12:22:53 am
Ok... I see a major problem of the town for now is that it seems they are willing to believe me I am town, but they have trouble believing my assessment that Galzria is definitely scum.

Therefore, let me summarize what happened between me and Galz which makes me extremely sure that he is scum. I will list the post numbers for your reference. I believe my summary is accurate. Please understand that the only viewpoint difference for you and me is that I am 100% sure I am town. I do not otherwise know anything you don't know.

The list of events in chronological order:

1. In the light of Robz's death, I decided to pursue 1-1 or 0-2 scum split on-off wagon. I said I have some secret reason to believe that eevee is town, on the road to suspect manda #795 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3411.msg76366#msg76366)
     
2. In reply, Galzria pointed out the possibility that PPS(actually me) might be soft-claiming, manda and PPS agreed. Galz has a theory that PPS(actually me)/eevee is the scum pair. #815 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3411.msg77004#msg77004), #822-824 Actually now I look back and read more about his initial theory, the essence is that after another mislynch, a fakeclaim is fatal to town, as a counterclaim needs a lynch to verify. And somehow he thought that a soft-fakeclaim now can achieve a mislynch. (red alert here; see analysis in the following post)
 
3. To avoid confusion, I explicitly denied.#827 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3411.msg77061#msg77061)

4. Then the discussion about my alleged fakeclaim ceased. Nobody seemed to believe (even Galz himself as far as I can tell as his initial softclaim read is from PPS's post) that I am a scum soft-fake-claiming. People were interested what secret reason I had for eevee's innocence though. In a time period of more than a day, Galzria didn't say much. Eevee and me decided to vote for him see if he wanted to talk more. #886, 887 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3411.msg77739#msg77739)

5. To promote town discussion (and since my original intention of hiding the reason in the first place did not work) I decided to speak out the reason why I think eevee is town. #894 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3411.msg77754#msg77754)

6. After more than a day's silence, Galzria did not say much, except officially replace PPS by me in his previous suspicion. Notice that he explicitly said he has nothing more to say at this point. #898 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3411.msg77778#msg77778) In my eyes (and I think in eevee's as well) this is a sudden turn of events. I do not think Galzria had seriously expressed his suspicion on me before this post. I was rather, expecting his response on the other discussions that occurred during the time, as well as my theory why eevee is town. Instead we got an OMGUS vote back without reason. This is where I really started to think he must be scum.

7. The fight started. Galzria then attempted (weakly) to prove that I could not have thought about the theory I posted at #894 back at the time of post #795. #903 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3411.msg77804#msg77804) Now I admit I might have given him this wrong impression by wrongly using the word "argument." But really the red alert for me is that
(1). From the lack of response in more than a day from him, I cannot believe that he really thinks that strong on the case of PPS(me)/eevee during this entire period after post #815.
(2). After his accusation in #898, he posted another short post #900 saying he has nothing more to say.
(3) So, evidently what he posted in #903 is not what caused him to suddenly strongly suspect me and eevee, because otherwise he would have stated those in #898.
(4) The only logical explanation I can put out on Galzria's behavior is that he started trying to find the fallacy of my argument only after he's now been directly accused.
(5) So how can he be so sure on me/eevee pair at post #898? The obvious answer is that he is scum. The only plausible explanation I had (later) for a townie galz is that he was angry back then.

8. I clarified and pointed to him the posts that my theory is based on. #904 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3411.msg77811#msg77811)

9. In almost a day's time, no substantial response from Galzria. My interpretation is that scum Galzria has given up. But in case that I misinterpreted (that he was just an angry town) I tried to tell him his argument against me and eevee is unreasonable. Also I begged him to explain further if he really had so much confidence in his theory.

10. Longer posts from Galzria started to come. #938 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3411.msg78829#msg78829) 
Red alert: For no good reason I can think of if he is town, he refused even to consider the possibility that I am telling the truth. (kinda hard to point toward a definite post; read through #945.)

11. Then I started to get mad. The rest is probably not relevant to either my case on him or his case on me.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 09, 2012, 12:48:33 am
.. do lets lynch Galz guys? Very good summary, timchen.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 12:59:21 am
So as you can see, there are 3 red alerts in the series of events, which is why I am so sure that he is scum. Let me elaborate on each of them:

1. Galzria's theory of me fakeclaiming:
I have now carefully reread his theory. I can summarize for him. Basically the key is that the town can now only afford 1 mislynch.  So, a fakeclaim at lylo (in scum's plan, persumably game-tomorrow) if believed is fatal. And Galz's theory is that my alleged soft-fake-claim should serve as breadcrumb to make my fakeclaim next day more believable.

Now if you look closely, this theory just does not hold. Firstly, in order for this to work my current day fake-soft-claim cannot be called out. Even Galzria himself found it too obvious. Secondly, even if it is not called out, on the next day when I (supposedly) fakeclaim, my softclaim on eevee cannot be a supportive evidence as it is not verified. 

There are two things I can say about Galz's theory. The first is that since it is a theory he put forth and said several times that he had nothing to add, I had a hard time understanding how he can simply ignore those logical inconsistencies in the theory, if he is town. The second is that it is admittedly a complicated theory, and you need to know who is who to plan ahead. Surely scum can do that, but how easy is it for a townie to reverse-engineer? It makes much sense (and much easier for him) to fabricate this theory if he is scum.

2. Red alert 2 is the timing of his response. Notice that at the time he posted his short but officially confirmed accusation on me and eevee, we are actually expecting other things: how he reads my theory that eevee is town, and how he viewed manda, etc, etc. His sudden accusation is really weird. I read it as scum over-reaction. And as I said briefly in the above post, it does not really seem like that the post of my eevee theory is the main reason of his suspicion on us. So his only source of suspicion is his crappy theory that cannot withstand scrutiny. And he said clearly multiple times he had nothing more to say to support his theory. I have an extremely hard time to understand his play as a townie.

3. And this is the fatal red alert. Ok, even if he somehow had bad logic and blindedly trust his own theory, he has no reason to completely disregard mine. Yet in the following discussion lasting more than a day, I see no admittance at all that what I am saying (that I am not softclaiming) might be plausible. I reemphasize that what I am saying DOES NOT point at him as mafia. So he has no reason not to consider what I say as plausible, if he is town.

With so many red alerts I cannot get any other conclusion other than that Galzria is mafia. You see now he starts to back up to hope what he did can be forgotten, and people can be confused.

Still, I will keep my promise. So We have to rely on the rest of the town to win.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 02:11:40 am
Tim, try again. I made my case in #815 (against PPS,, wrongly), corrected to you less than 3 hours later (not more than 24 as you claim) in #824, and then vote you before it's OMGUS as you claim I did, just 6 posts later in #830.

Oh, here's the votecount from #838, showing I voted for you first:

Vote Count 2-5

shark_bait (2): Eevee, Young Nick
manda2014 (2): pingpongsam, timchen
timchen (1): Galzria

Not Voting {2}: manda2014, shark_bait

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)

If you're going to "summarize" your case, it helps if you don't flat out lie.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 02:13:28 am
After rereading my two long posts, I think there might be some ambiguity when I exchangeably use the term "my theory", "what I say" or similar. If you don't find it confusing you don't have to read this post.

So actually I have three statements in this relatively complicated business:

1. why eevee is likely town (#894).
2. My explanation that I am not soft-claiming and why I keep the reasoning 1. a secret for a while (scattered)
3. Galzria is scum. (scattered)

Now, Galzria can argue (and have argued) how my 1. is weak. Also Manda disbelieved it. This is fine. That is just an argument, nothing definite.

However, my red alert #3 is about Galzria's complete rebuttal of 2. What I said is what happened, and I cannot fathom how can a townee find what actually happened completely unbelievable, especially without any good reason. Of course, what Galz said (the soft-fake-claim theory) contradicts my 2. directly, but if he is townie, he cannot prove what he said actually happened, and he has no reason to completely disregard the possibility that what I am saying is true.

And of course, now my overall statement is 3. His rebuttal on this one does not give me any further scum read.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 02:19:03 am
Tim, try again. I made my case in #815 (against PPS,, wrongly), corrected to you less than 3 hours later (not more than 24 as you claim) in #824, and then vote you before it's OMGUS as you claim I did, just 6 posts later in #830.

Oh, here's the votecount from #838, showing I voted for you first:

Vote Count 2-5

shark_bait (2): Eevee, Young Nick
manda2014 (2): pingpongsam, timchen
timchen (1): Galzria

Not Voting {2}: manda2014, shark_bait

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)

If you're going to "summarize" your case, it helps if you don't flat out lie.

Sorry, missed your post #830. I hope it should be pretty clear that I cannot have consciously made this mistake.

Still, the point is the same. There are more than 24 hours silence for you between that post and the next. You were definitely not pushing that argument. And while we are asking your opinion about other things, you just OMGUSed back. Without further reason.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 02:21:13 am
Oh Galz, don't forget you still control my vote. Do you want me to vote for manda now?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 02:39:28 am
Since I have written so much, it probably does not hurt to write a conclusion.

Why for me Galz is surely scum? It is mainly because he insisted on his faulty soft-fake-claim theory without any effort trying to reinforce it, and refused to consider any other possibilities.

You can go back and read what Galzria has written. He spent a lot more words attacking me rather than justifying his theory. Why? The answer is simple. He has no way to justify it.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 02:50:23 am
Tim, try again. I made my case in #815 (against PPS,, wrongly), corrected to you less than 3 hours later (not more than 24 as you claim) in #824, and then vote you before it's OMGUS as you claim I did, just 6 posts later in #830.

Oh, here's the votecount from #838, showing I voted for you first:

Vote Count 2-5

shark_bait (2): Eevee, Young Nick
manda2014 (2): pingpongsam, timchen
timchen (1): Galzria

Not Voting {2}: manda2014, shark_bait

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)

If you're going to "summarize" your case, it helps if you don't flat out lie.

Sorry, missed your post #830. I hope it should be pretty clear that I cannot have consciously made this mistake.

Still, the point is the same. There are more than 24 hours silence for you between that post and the next. You were definitely not pushing that argument. And while we are asking your opinion about other things, you just OMGUSed back. Without further reason.

No, OMGUS is when you vote with no reason. I laid out my reason. You softclaimed. I saw it. Manda saw it. PPS saw it.

Now, there are two claims you can make:

Yes, I did softclaim,

Or

No, I did not softclaim.

You stated the second, which indeed I choose not to believe because I didn't think you could be so oblivious to the fact that it would get read that way. "I think Eevee is town, but don't want to say why unless I have to" IS going to be read as a softclaim.

Now, since I just could not (and can not) comprehend you being that oblivious to the fact that it would be read that way, I must conclude you meant to do it.

This then leads to two possibilities:

You did it as town

OR

You did it as scum

Since making a softclaim like that as town is rather idiotic, and I don't think you're an idiot, I was left to conclude that the second option was the more likely. The case for this is made in #815.

Here's why it works if you're scum: Generally speaking, if town sees a softclaim, they don't call it out because they hope scum didn't notice. If you make this softclaim as scum, and people go "Oh, he's softclaiming to have cleared Eevee - let's focus on another target" (you provided two, through reasonable analysis under the assumption Eevee = town). So we go about scumhunting Manda/YN as you propose. But remember, you're scum in this scenario, and those two are both town. So let's say we lynch one (was likely, as I suspected YN heavily anyway, and PPS did Manda) - and they flip town. Now we open D3, and you come out and full-claim, saying you breadcrumbed it back with your softclaim. What's more, you've found scum, and it's X.

Town must somehow decide to lynch you instead of X, or they lose - and that's just not going to happen. So an unchallenged softclaim by scum today almost certainly would result in a town loss.

SO: Given that I didn't think you would be oblivious enough to have not known that was going to be read as a softclaim, AND the fact that I didn't think you would play such a terrible town as to make the claim intentionally, the only logical conclusion was that you were scum trying to pull a fairly straightforward gambit.

This was ALL spelled out in #815 & #830, and was prior to your ever releasing your "proof" of Eevee's innocence. The entire case was made already, and my vote cast, before you ever released your "proof" of Eevee's innocence where you claimed it had to be a Galz+X pair. The fact that your Eevee proof dropped SB entirely, and dismissed PPS entirely - leaving just you and me as possible scum on the wagon - did little to make me consider you any less scummy.

Now, in light of your play the last two days, I must conclude I was wrong in my initial judgments of your softclaim. Since you still absolutely stand by the fact that you didn't softclaim, I will choose to only discredit my first assumption:

That you wouldn't be oblivious to the fact that it would be read that way. Apparently you were. How this can be... I just don't know or understand. But I believe you're town, and I still don't believe you would play town so poorly intentionally, so all that's left is that you just didn't realize your softclaim would get read that way.

..... That doesn't sit well with me, but what else can I conclude?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 03:19:54 am
Now, recreation time! (Sorry, long posts stating things I already know is quite exhausting. I need some fun posts.)

part I: An unbiased estimate of how likely Galzria is scum:

I know I said I am 100% sure that Galzria is scum. But that is a subjective estimate. Now let me try to objectively estimate how likely he is scum. I am going to do this using Bayes theorem.

1. prior probablility: without extra knowledge, the chance for Galzria to be scum is 2/7. town 5/7.

2. the probability for him to do the red-alerted things as town and scum respectively:
(this kind of probability has to be given to use the Bayes theorem unfortunately; I'll be as conservative as I can at giving out the probabilities.)

red alert 1: townie: 20% scum: 80%
As scum it is easier for him to think of this kind of argument. While it is not impossible as townie, it is quite unlikely that he can think hard enough to get this theory yet continuously failed to see the fallacy of it.

red alert 2: townie: 45% scum:50%
As a courtesy to my missing of his post #830, I am going to say his behavior here is almost as likely from townie as from scum. Yeah, scum can subject to overreaction, but townie can also be upset. I didn't put 50-50 because he denied later that he was upset.

red alert 3: townie: 15% scum: 90%
I really don't see as townie why can he not accept what I said as a possibility. As scum at that point he probably he might think he couldn't withdraw or that would look even more suspicious.

Now we can apply Bayes theorem. The conditional probability that Galzria is scum after the series of event is

2/7*80%*50%*90%/(5/7*20%*45%*15%+2/7*80%*50%*90%)=91.4%

(You can adjust the probabilities yourself to your liking. It would be interesting to see what number comes out!)



part II: the options of the town

Unfortunately I gave my vote power to Galzria when I was mad. With an objective measure of the chance that Galzria is scum, now we can estimate the success rate of each strategy I outlined:

i) lynch someone other than me or Galzria:
When Galzria is town, there are 2/5 chance to get mafia. 3.4% success; 5.2% lylo.
When he is scum, the chance lowers to 1/5. Even if we get the scum we are still at lylo. 18.3% lylo; 73.1% lose

Strategy summary: 73.1%/23.5%/3.4% (lose/lylo/success)

ii) lynch me:
this one is easy (at least from my perspective). 100% lylo.

Strategy summary: 0%/100%/0%

iii) lynch Galzria:
When he is town: 8.6% lylo
When he is scum: 91.4% success

Strategy summary: 0%/8.6%/91.4%
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 04:24:50 am
No, OMGUS is when you vote with no reason. I laid out my reason. You softclaimed. I saw it. Manda saw it. PPS saw it.
Technically you are right. But hope you see my point as I even forgot that you have voted for me at that point. Also, I thought it is pretty clear that I was following eevee trying to force you speak more. So I didn't really vote without reason.

I am glad you replied a bit more about your soft-fake-claim theory. Still, I'll highlight the questions I have already raised:
Now we open D3, and you come out and full-claim, saying you breadcrumbed it back with your softclaim. What's more, you've found scum, and it's X.

Town must somehow decide to lynch you instead of X, or they lose - and that's just not going to happen. So an unchallenged softclaim by scum today almost certainly would result in a town loss.
First thing is that breadcrumb does not gain be credibility, if I were scum and played accordingly. Eevee is not verified town. The only way for that breadcrumb to work is eevee being NKed and flipped town. So your theory should actually be that I am partnering with someone NOT eevee and I have to plan to NK him. (Actually realizing this redeems you a bit in my eyes, as this is actually the best thing you can say as scum but you didn't.) But then eevee is quite sad to be fooled by me like that. Probably not so likely.

Following from this, your last sentence quoted above is not quite right (since the breadcrumbing does not work). If eevee-me are a pair, the best strategy should be either that I softclaim clearing say SB and kill him at night, or I shouldn't softclaim at all, as any mislynch today will work, and a full fakeclaim tomorrow will be hard for the town anyway. In addition, in any case saying my strategy is to soft-claim in such an obvious way then hoping it not to be detected is self-contradictory.

The entire case was made already, and my vote cast, before you ever released your "proof" of Eevee's innocence where you claimed it had to be a Galz+X pair. The fact that your Eevee proof dropped SB entirely, and dismissed PPS entirely - leaving just you and me as possible scum on the wagon - did little to make me consider you any less scummy.
I am sorry but it seems to me that you also misunderstood me. I really have to apologize for this. They are two separate things. in my secret eevee-town argument, I use the fact that, eevee-Galz pair is the only possible pair I can see and that is also ruled out, to support eevee's innocence. When I assumed that eevee is townie, there are then no more direct argument against you. The only thing against you is that I would still like to pick one scum out from the first 4 wagoner, that is, you and PPS, and I think you are more likely. Sadly that I probably stated the two things too close together. I apologize again that this misunderstanding seems to scumfish you out.

That you wouldn't be oblivious to the fact that it would be read that way. Apparently you were. How this can be... I just don't know or understand.
Remember this is only my third mafia game (and second if you don't count RMMI) and how I am ignorant to Grujah's d1 claim in M6? And I admit I do have rather strong opinion against tacit claims. I personally prefer the game to be played with entirely open information. That is, you can still breadcrumb, but the breadcrumb should not be picked up just by the observant's acute observation. Instead the only coding/breadcrumbing should be deciphered using extra information.

For example, Grujah's LOVE code in m6 is something I don't like (as if scum picks up he and morgrim's dead. And how does it help him if a townie picks it up?) Jo's breadcrumb of ROBZGUN in BMMM is something I like though, as without information next day nobody would have known that is a code, yet in the next day it is so obvious that it is a code for everyone.

Anyway, just so you see a bit why I didn't see it potentially that my statement of a secret reason as a softclaim. Never occurred in my mind until you mentioned it.

In the end, I am sorry if the scumfishing starts from this alleged softclaim. But I hope I have compensated you more by giving you my vote!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 04:34:19 am
Tim, tell me something frankly and honestly here: If you assume for a second that you and I are both town, do you see Eevee's (or anybody else's) play in relation to our dispute scummy? Because I really think you're town after yesterdays play, and while you can't know it, I AM town too.

From that perspective - to me - Eevee really seemed to be pushing you on while doing no work himself. Manda to a lesser degree, but mostly she's just lurked her way through this game.

What I'm asking, is go back to the question I posed before, and with a clear head: If we're both town, what is our best chance to hit scum? I'll flip the tables here and offer you MY vote, but ask that you really look at Eevee and Manda.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 04:47:56 am
And thank you for your response above. I do see why you didn't think it was a softclaim... It just really read like one to me, and certainly at the time - yes, I admit it was unfathomable to me that you couldn't have stated it like that intentionally. So to something you brought up before - Yes, I was unwilling to consider the alternative that it was unintentional because it made no sense to me.

As to the whole who would a scum softclaim yadda yadda - I could see it working both ways. You're right that claiming a townie then NK'ing them would make sense... But realize that if a Doctor is in the game, you've basically told them who to protect because they know the softclaim to be a lie.

More importantly than your claim on Eevee then (or more directly), the pairing made sense to me because I already viewed Eevee as scummy (my case was laid out on him separate from you), and you seemed the only viable on-wagon partner (I too, fwiw dismissed PPS and SB).
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 11:22:33 am
Ok. First in response to your question. Suppose that both of us are town. (I'll say why it is quite unlikely in a subsequent post.)

First eevee- I see you now agree on my assessment on eevee, namely that if is scum he should pair with someone on the wagon. And if both of us are town, well, then, he can only pair with PPS. Actually this is not that impossible. The only thing I would say that does not sound right is both of them are too adamant on either my side or yours. If they are the pair at some point in the previous few days one of them (more likely PPS) should take back his stance a bit, lynch one of us, and when flipped town, pursue the other next day. Sounds like an easy way to win for them. But anyway, if you flip town, I will think this through more carefully.

One last word about eevee: I do agree I would appreciate if he could speak more. But I don't really blame him (or her? I am confused). Putting myself in his shoes, after seeing my lengthy articles and agreeing with me mostly, there really isn't that much to add. So no, I don't view how he played as scummy.

Now Manda. I am actually pretty sad for her, because in my eyes, what I see is that you two are partners, she is unwilling to bus you, but you bused her once you found you couldn't frame me. Oh, but I digressed.

So supposed that you are town, well, it still feels pretty weird for me that you instantly found her scummy. Your points are valid though: she's being careful. But maybe she just plays like that, we have no meta. If you are town, does it feel right when you decide to take back your assessment, then turn your target immediately on one of your followers? Ok, but supposed that is what you decided to do anyway. Who's her partner? PPS is again possible I assume, and it makes sense for them to push my wagon then when I flipped town, push yours.

Some comments on other players.
Young_nick: I suspect him early in the day, but his response to my posts seem genuine. If we both were town and he is scum, he should be taking sides instead of staying almost in the middle. How he appears really looks like he lacks information.

Sharky: I was hoping to see his post yesterday, but didn't. A bit more lurky than before... which does not suit my taste. Unfortunately he did nothing particularly scummy. Also his reasoning why he is on your side reads town. Will look at him more closely if you flipped town.

PPS: if you flip mafia as I think you will, I will strongly consider lynching him next just for the sake of lynching him. He is the player that I am mostly upset about in the previous few days. But his play style is consistent.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 11:24:31 am
*you=Galzria in the previous post
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 11:27:09 am
I think you got something wrong on my thoughts: I think both scum are off the wagon.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 11:41:52 am
Ok. So first argument why we cannot both be town (without appealing to anything you have said):

If we were both town, it would be hard explain why you can live until now. From what all I can see I have presented a plausible case. The scum would be more than happy to accept my argument, maybe hedge a bit, then reluctantly vote for you. Once you flipped town then I am in huge trouble. And they basically win.

So this is the objective reason why there has to be a scum among us. Just for knowing that I am town I can say you are scum. But I believe I have said plenty to support that you are scum even without using the knowledge I am town.

I can also summarize your recent explanation of your previous suspicion on me. Simply put:
1. I "obviously" soft-claimed.
2. I denied.
3. Therefore, I must be lying, and if I am lying I has to be scum.

Maybe ok at first glance. But not ok when you can support this with no other substance in a fight that lasts more than 2 days. You didn't even mention this strongly until yesterday.

This is what I see that has happened:

When I said for some secret reason I think eevee is town, you are telling the truth that you really thought it is a softclaim. However, what you really had in mind back then was that I did a stupid cop slip. So you basically made up your mind just to put some suspect on me, and if that did not work you could probably NK me at night. And in the first place you do not want to pursue me too strongly as if I flipped cop you won't look good.

But things changed when I put out my eevee theory. You now realize that I am possibly telling the truth. But more importantly, you sense a risk that if the town buys my stuff, yourself are in immediate danger. (Unfortunately this is actually misunderstanding...)

So realizing that I am probably not a cop, you decide to pursue the route of framing me fakeclaiming, as yourself in the beginning see it so obviously that I am claiming. And the rest I have summarized yesterday.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 11:45:18 am
I think you got something wrong on my thoughts: I think both scum are off the wagon.
So you are talking about precisely eevee-manda pair? (I think we both think YN is town for now)

Well... if given that we both are town I guess that is a possibility. It is probably as possible as eevee-PPS pair.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 11:51:00 am
Alright Timchen, I'm tired of this.
Vote: Galzria


Here's the mafia win you so badly want. Vote for me now, so you can see how completely off base and wrong you are.

I'm not dead yet because we're both town and Eevee is scum. He's been egging you on this whole time while offering nothing himself so that you take the fall. His partner some can't come hammer me, so they need another town to vote me, but every other town member here sees the illogical fallacies of your arguments and won't vote me.

THAT'S why. But you won't believe me. You think you're right and nothing else in the world makes sense. So lynch me, and see how blind you've been.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 09, 2012, 11:53:24 am
Just checking in... I'm about to head to work, so I'll be reading but not posting until about 6 forum time.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 11:54:13 am
I'll gladly accept that. And do you mind me joking you now you definitely are not playing for your wincon, no matter whether you are town or mafia? (Ok, as mafia this may be a risky gambit)

Vote: Galzria

And if you really flip town, I promise I will look carefully at eevee.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 09, 2012, 11:54:59 am
Is that L-1?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 11:55:31 am
Is that L-1?

Yes.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 12:02:38 pm
I'll gladly accept that. And do you mind me joking you now you definitely are not playing for your wincon, no matter whether you are town or mafia? (Ok, as mafia this may be a risky gambit)

Vote: Galzria

And if you really flip town, I promise I will look carefully at eevee.

Timchen, in some sense you're right. But this game is going in circles, and nobody else is participating. If you're Mafia I'll be really pissed, but you're more like IC to me now.

I don't KNOW who Eevee's partner is, but I'm SURE Eevee is scum. Since nobody else is participating this is the only thing that'll move the game forward - and at least by my reveal you and the town know the truth.

Lynch Eevee tomorrow, and town gets to a 2 on 1 final day matchup, which we can still win. And hell, maybe we do still have a Cop or Doc out there that can help even more.

So yeah, given the state of the game and the level of participation, a town lynch of me now trades for one scum tomorrow (and I beg you to sheep me reads on Eevee - You, and the rest of town) - I do actually think this is the best way to meet town wincon.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 09, 2012, 12:09:56 pm
Last day, I lynched frisk for the sake of lynching.  I will not do that today.  I will not hammer Galz (at least today).  Consider this a hard statement of fact.  I didn't post much yesterday b/c well, I had no idea of how to respond to tc.  I still don't really know and will try to independently look through the facts later.  But for today, I'm content to set aside the Galz/TC conflict and lynch elsewhere.   I've expressed my suspicion of Eevee in this thread, and Galz, I'm willing to pursue this with you today.

Vote:  Eevee
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 09, 2012, 12:24:10 pm
Vote Count 2-11

shark_bait (1): Young Nick
Galzria (3): Eevee, Galzria, timchen
manda2014 (1): pingpongsam
Eevee (1): shark_bait

Not Voting {1}: manda2014

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 12:29:26 pm
@sharky: you are falling into Galz's trap.

Please just see who he has accused. First he went strongly on me and eevee together as a team. Then he switched to manda. Now he says how affirmative he is about eevee.

I swear to my heart there is no single logical fallacy on my arguments on Galzria. (If you do not agree I welcome you to point out where you find unsatisfying or even wrong.) And my argument points toward Galzria as a highly likely mafia. Specifically, I pointed out under several circumstances what Galzr did is not so explanable as town behavior.

To compare, what do you guys have on eevee? Just that he sheeps my reads too much? Why can a townie not do that (given that you do not find a place where my argument is fallacious?) 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 12:34:05 pm
@sharky: you are falling into Galz's trap.

Please just see who he has accused. First he went strongly on me and eevee together as a team. Then he switched to manda. Now he says how affirmative he is about eevee.

I swear to my heart there is no single logical fallacy on my arguments on Galzria. (If you do not agree I welcome you to point out where you find unsatisfying or even wrong.) And my argument points toward Galzria as a highly likely mafia. Specifically, I pointed out under several circumstances what Galzr did is not so explanable as town behavior.

To compare, what do you guys have on eevee? Just that he sheeps my reads too much? Why can a townie not do that (given that you do not find a place where my argument is fallacious?)

I have explained where each and every one of your arguments is wrong, and I've spelled out exactly why I made the accusations I did. What it boils down to is that I was wrong, and to quote PPS, your play was "Piss poor town play".
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 09, 2012, 12:36:34 pm
Galzria voting for himself is a huge wtf. I'm trying to decide if he legitimely abandoned his wincon and doesnt want to play or if this some sick gambit. If he is mafia with nick or manda, he just had to trust the other wouldnt hammer and in time the focus would shift to me because self-lynchers are always town? I dont knowww. I'm definitely town and I dont think I've played scummy at all. I am going to fight for my life, I just dont know what to respond to atm because I see no case against me.

I have wholeheartedly agreed with timchen's case against Galzria. I still do, but that self vote looks very odd.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 12:37:52 pm
If YN or PPS comes and wants to join on an Eevee lynch I'll switch. Otherwise the lack of participation in this thread makes my own lynch the best way to move things forward, as you'll actually have concrete information to work with at the start of tomorrow.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 12:39:28 pm
Galzria voting for himself is a huge wtf. I'm trying to decide if he legitimely abandoned his wincon and doesnt want to play or if this some sick gambit. If he is mafia with nick or manda, he just had to trust the other wouldnt hammer and in time the focus would shift to me because self-lynchers are always town? I dont knowww. I'm definitely town and I dont think I've played scummy at all. I am going to fight for my life, I just dont know what to respond to atm because I see no case against me.

I have wholeheartedly agreed with timchen's case against Galzria. I still do, but that self vote looks very odd.

Aww, trying to back away? How cute.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 12:40:26 pm
I am too lazy to argue with you right now. But I have my argument sorted and ready for dispute in the previous page.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 12:40:41 pm
You'll switch? I thought you said I have your vote?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 12:44:58 pm
You'll switch? I thought you said I have your vote?

My vote goes where I feel it has the best chance of helping town win. I was trying to get you to open your eyes before, but you insist on not seeing anything that doesn't match what you want to believe.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 09, 2012, 12:50:11 pm
Galzria voting for himself is a huge wtf. I'm trying to decide if he legitimely abandoned his wincon and doesnt want to play or if this some sick gambit. If he is mafia with nick or manda, he just had to trust the other wouldnt hammer and in time the focus would shift to me because self-lynchers are always town? I dont knowww. I'm definitely town and I dont think I've played scummy at all. I am going to fight for my life, I just dont know what to respond to atm because I see no case against me.

I have wholeheartedly agreed with timchen's case against Galzria. I still do, but that self vote looks very odd.

Aww, trying to back away? How cute.

Trying to make sense of you. Sue me.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 01:00:15 pm
Here's how I'm looking at things Tim:

There are 7 players alive, 5 of which are town and it takes 4 to lynch.

In order to lynch scum, we need 4 town votes.

The only active to semi-active people in this thread are Eevee, you and me.

That leaves YN/SB/PPS/Manda who aren't contributing much of anything.

Now, there MUST be 2 town in that set. And unless Eevee, you and me are all town, there are actually 3 town in that set.

3 out of the 5 town likely aren't really contributing. It takes 4 to lynch. With the level of participation in this thread, and you hellbent on lynching a townie, town will never lynch scum.

SO, how do we catch them? Well, I've made my case on Eevee, but understand why you wouldn't want to believe it's merits because, hey, he's supporting you! So if town cannot lynch scum because of the levels of participation, then we either lynch town or no-lynch.

What do you think happens in no lynch? Mafia kill innocent townie (say YN) and we are right back to this same spot tomorrow. You hellbent on lynching a townie and the rest of town lurking their way to a loss.

So at least by self-lynching, it forces a reveal that proves my townieness, giving something concrete for the town to try and work with tomorrow.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 09, 2012, 01:07:35 pm
Could we (Galzria timchen and myself) agree on lynching one of the lurkers? After all, there is two mafia, at least one of them has to be scum.

PPS, manda or sharky seem like the options to me (Young Nick is indeed giving away a town vibe). Any opinions?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 09, 2012, 02:15:57 pm
If YN or PPS comes and wants to join on an Eevee lynch I'll switch. Otherwise the lack of participation in this thread makes my own lynch the best way to move things forward, as you'll actually have concrete information to work with at the start of tomorrow.

I cannot in good conscience place an Eevee vote. The wagon on Galzria is a sad one to me because I also see him as town. I refuse to cast votes on people I read as town. That currently includes timchen. That said, I agree that a Galzria flip one direction or the other is a highly informative flip and am therefore not arguing against it, just refusing to contribute to his demise.

Out of who is left the remaining scum-feel I get is still from manda as basically I've made a case and ther has been zero refutation but then, there's been no need because the wagon on her dissipated as fast as it formed levaing me alone on that trail once again.

I would consider voting for Sharky or YN but am obviously in favor of a manda lynch. Out of all the dialogue spewing forth from timchen and Galzria all I got was Town slap fighting Town which Mafia must be eating up.

I have consistently made posts of what I feel to be substance and on the one day I was predisposed to be able to post I made it clear beforehand and am now posting when I said I would. As such, I do not appreciate being called a lurker.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 09, 2012, 02:17:38 pm
I'd add that lurking implies reading but not posting which I am not guilty of in the least.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 02:22:31 pm
I'd add that lurking implies reading but not posting which I am not guilty of in the least.
Well, my point was rather a lack of greater involvement and little participation. I think Manda is a fine place for a vote, but I'm more convinced of Eevee. I'm not going to force Timchen to vote anywhere, so Manda wasn't going to get above 2, so there wasn't much point in being there. If she wanted to respond, she would've done so. Instead she came, commented, and left again.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 09, 2012, 02:28:27 pm
Is standing on a vote an refusing to get sucked into what appears to be an obvious town lynch trap considered little participation?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 09, 2012, 02:29:27 pm
Let me see a case on Eevee. I'm apparently blind to his scum wizardry.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 02:52:59 pm
Out of all the dialogue spewing forth from timchen and Galzria all I got was Town slap fighting Town which Mafia must be eating up.
@PPS: can you explain why mafia then not push galzria lynch first then lynch me next day? At some point 2 days ago probably there are plenty of time doing this.

Also, while I understand you have a town read on Galzria based on his style of post (I had that town read too!) please also compare what two of us are saying. I have summarized what I said in the last page.

What I said from the start of our argument till now are identical and consistent. The only consistent explanation I can get from Galzria's behavior is that he is mafia. (If you don't agree, can you do me a favor to explain the 3 red alerts I outlined in the previous page? If you can persuade me those are consistent town play, I may as well throw away my case on Galzria.)

How about Galz's arguments? He started with a story that eevee and I are scum pairs. Once he gave up fighting my arguments, he pushes a manda wagon. Then today he said eevee has always been the #1 suspect for him. And now he said his play is to enable us to move on expecting that you, manda, sharky, and YN will semi-lurk.

None of the actions he has taken make good sense. I've spoken a lot for his argument of me. (Even though now he said that it is because he had to take my secrecy as fakeclaim, that story does not fit how he had behaved during we are arguing.) I didn't see any reasoning why pushing a manda wagon if his #1 suspect is in fact eevee. And I don't see reasoning either why he wants us to move on without the rest of town. I am willing to wait. And I certainly have to believe they have enough reasoning for us to win the game instead of trying to lynch someone right now for the sake of moving the game on.


Dear PPS, I will ask a favor from you to vote for Galzria.

@Galzria: just wanna remind you ok so if you are not giving your vote to me, then you still have my vote. Do you want me to vote for eevee?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 03:02:45 pm
Well, first off, of you consider me town (and I certainly do!), consider first his D1 play:

After the Frisk wagon started building (but before it took off), Eevee started the whole "Frisk is town" parade of posts. This didn't really bother me as everyone is entitled to their opinions, although I thought that his certainty of it was slightly off-putting. Remember, one of the things that I was preaching D1 was that town knows nothing while scum knows much.

Instead however, he spent the day campaigning for my lynch, instead of Frisk's. This was a little alarming because, well, his whole reason was that too many people trusted me. Timchen keeps asking why a Mafia Eevee would do not vote for Frisk and just get him lynched, but he fails to take a few different things into account:

A) f.DS has never no-lynch, and there was no precedent that it would happen here.

B) Given that the two wagons that had life at that time were me and CF, both of whom are town, then why in the world would a Mafia-Eevee switch? Someone was going to get lynched, and it was going to be town at that point. Certainly mafia would prefer to be off the wagon, right? And switching late is generally considered scummy. So there is absolutely no reason for a Mafia to switch from one town wagon to a different one just to force through a lynch that was likely to happen anyway.

Eevee then opens today with "I told you so":

 http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=JEEP%27s_Tells_for_Finding_Mafia

See: Gloating

---

As for D2 play, Eevee has offered very little contribution on Timchen and I, except to constantly egg Timchen on. Consider: For most of the day, if I were lynched, what would happen tomorrow after I flipped town? Timchen would be insta-lynched. The few town that are left would see his massive case for me (to which I have completely refuted), and they would know I'm town. It only takes one of them to vote for town Timchen and the Mafia hammer away for victory.

So if Timchen and myself are both town, you're absolutely right that Mafia would be eating it up. Looking at the way Eevee played D1, claiming one town was "obvtown" when there was no way to know it (tell #1, information), setting up a different town wagon (tell #2 & #3, leading and setting up a mislynch) - and the way he played D2 by gloating at the start (tell #4) and even more setting up a mislynch (Me/Timchen, today/tomorrow), I think there's a pretty firm case.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 03:11:12 pm
Galzria, can you make an argument on eevee NOT assuming you are town? That way I can probably see how it is better not to lynch you today. Since I read your entirely post based on the fact that you are town, it almost increases my will (if it can still be increased!) on lynching you first. It becomes really a better and better plan in my eyes:

lynch you , if you flip mafia, lynch manda next.
                if you flip town, lynch eevee as per your dying wish.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 03:17:48 pm
Also just for some food for thought: usually being consistent is more town than mafia. The reason is actually sort of bad, because there is confirmation bias I think. But the important thing is, mafia knows who are town in this game, and generally there are confused town, so changing their mind from time to time is not huge risk. A mafia member has no particular reason to insist on lynching one particular town and saving the other. He can plan things, sure, but he has the flexibility to change his plan (like what you are doing here, Galz.) Not using that flexibility is generally a town tell except for WIFOM reasons.

PPS refuses to believe Galz is scum. Eevee insists on saving frisk and lynching Galzria. I insist my case on Galzria. Myself excluded, those two are town tells to me.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 03:18:34 pm
Oh and I should also add that eevee insists that manda is town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 03:26:35 pm
And let me tell this Galz. All your accusation has confirmation bias. That is, indeed to some extent what eevee did can be viewed logically as what mafia would have done.

The problem is, what he did can also be easily explained as town. (If you want to say his insistence on frisk, do you want to lynch PPS for his insistence on you?)

My accusation on you is different. My 3 red alerts are things that I can explain logically when you are scum, but I cannot explain them logically when you are town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 03:33:45 pm
And let me tell this Galz. All your accusation has confirmation bias. That is, indeed to some extent what eevee did can be viewed logically as what mafia would have done.

The problem is, what he did can also be easily explained as town. (If you want to say his insistence on frisk, do you want to lynch PPS for his insistence on you?)

My accusation on you is different. My 3 red alerts are things that I can explain logically when you are scum, but I cannot explain them logically when you are town.

Your three red flags are made up cases, or extensions of the twisted facts you believe. I've already pointed out how your summaries and logic was wrong, and so are your three red flags. They simply don't exist.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 09, 2012, 03:40:11 pm
I dont insist manda being town anymore. Her recent behavior reads scummy to me, very scummy indeed. I might even be down for lynching her unless she starts defending herself.

Galzria, thanks for clarifying your reasons for suspecting me. My comments:

I did tell you why I thought Frisk had to be town. I'm not going to apologize for realizing he is town and trying to convince others of it as well. Quite frankly, I know you are smart and experienced in this game, I think you should have realized I was right about Frisk. Maybe you didnt want to because you are mafia?

I argued Frisk being town way way harder than I did you being mafia. I was just trying to find alternative lynch targets, I think I had my vote on Robz for some time too. Well, his evasive behavior turned out a power role wanting to lay low. But saying I was equally sure of Frisk's towniness and your scumminess is 100% not correct. I didnt have a town read on you, and you seemed like a good lynch candidate. It was today when I got the scum read on you. I agree 100% with timchens case. I read his "softclaim" as a careless stupid wording, nothing more than that. His explanations make very much sense to me, yours dont.

I absolutely thought we were heading for nolynch. I know I cant prove this and apparently you and some others felt different, but I thought I got you lot convinced and no one was going to vote for Frisk. So your B is entirely incorrect. Town Eevee was happy he got people to see Frisk is town, and was settling on a nolynch until the hammer dropped.

Gloating was stupid and caused unnecessary confusion, also gave scum some weapons to attack me with. However, it was nothing but me being genuinely happy I was right about Frisk. Man it would have sucked if he had somehow fooled me.. I was very relieved to see him flip town, and I felt like a superhuman for my read and got cocky. Sorry about that again!

Today, timchen has written all the cases for me. I 100% agree with his case on you and his explanations for his own actions make perfect sense to (right until the "I give Galzria my vote"-tantrum, but to be fair you voted for yourself too so its not like you are much better in that regard). I dont think saying I've offered very little contribution is fair still. I shared my reads on manda, and why I thought she was town. No one really commented on them so I assume they werent very convincing for other, and her recent behavior has been scummy to me which I've also noted. That and I'm like the only one here who has a clear stance on your situation with timchen.

My reads at this point:

Galzria: Still suspect #1, although I think mafia is yet to "give up" and selfvote.
timchen: Frisk-level town read. Like his case against Galzria a lot.
manda: I had a town read on her, but its fading by the minute. Her lack of participation and refusal to defend herself is not earning her any points.
Young Nick: Hasnt said much, but has seemed townier than yesterday. I understand this game can be hard to keep up with, and he hasnt faced any danger of getting lynched so I sort of understand his quietness better than mandas. I dont think we should lynch Nick today, but I think he could play a little more active and try to help town more.
PPS: Has also seemed townier than yesterday I think. Most active of the inactive bunch, and has made sense when he has posted. I would appreciate some initiative though, weighing in on the timchen-Galz debate is good but actually settling on a lynch target who is mafia is pretty important here and I think PPS could help us more with that.
shark_bait: Awfully quiet today, we need to hear more from him. Could very well be mafia, is getting surprisingly little attention for how scummy he has actually played.


Oh boy I wrote a freaking book, I've got other games to attend to so wont proofread any of this, sorry!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 09, 2012, 04:05:54 pm
Man, I am so far behind. This is more of a timesink than I anticipated. I will get caught up as soon as I can, which may not be until later tonight, or later. And, as I have said, I will be V/LA this weekend. I am not lurking; I just am not even reading. I'll start now and post my thoughts when I am fully caught up.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 09, 2012, 04:12:47 pm
@PPS: can you explain why mafia then not push galzria lynch first then lynch me next day? At some point 2 days ago probably there are plenty of time doing this.

I think Mafia  are licking their chops waiting for Town to lynch themselves. I think the Mafia players got an easy D1 kill in this manner and they're hoping for another D2 kill in this manner. The people I suspect of being Mafia haven't had to build cases and they don't know how to build one without revealing there alignment. Town may at each others' throats but so far they've been deadlocked.

Quote
Also, while I understand you have a town read on Galzria based on his style of post (I had that town read too!) please also compare what two of us are saying. I have summarized what I said in the last page.

As of right now I am playing a perceptive game. There is a time and a place for logic. Logic is great when it can conclusively disprove possibilities thereby whittling possibilities down. When I'm reading the timchen vs. Galzria debate I'm trying to avoid exactly what is being said and trying to look at what position is being taken. The words are a vehicle for a position.

Galzria's initial position on timchen was an easy one for anyone to take, really. Argue it wasn't a softclaim till you are blue in the face but everyone had good reason to believe it was. Galzria ran with it and put his vote where it belonged to pressure that angle. Your response, while reasonable in light of your less than level headed play, came off as scummy. Anyone can bend anyone's arguments against them with logic in this game. He did that but the position is timchen made an ugly move and keeps getting uglier especially by sheeping Eevee's vote on Galzria simply for it being a Frisk deathwish. That reeks of OMGUS combined with an eagerness to drive a lynch on Galzria, this was the point I believe Mafia stepped back to watch the fireworks.

timchen's position has remained pro-town after the point of the softclaim that he denies happening. The soft-claim itself was terrible town-play, The resignation to sheep a Galzria vote is terrible town play. The over the top erratic behavior, however paints a position. This isn't calulated Mafia maneuver. If timchen comes out of this Mafia then he may be the greatest Mafia player ever in the game. Also, It would almost have to be an Eevee/timchen pairing. Galzria sees this and changes his stride by maintaining a reactionary but still arguably pro-town position.


The timchen/Galzria entanglement is hopeless without scum forcing the issue which makes it too easy for us to find them tomorrow. The Galzria self-vote is effectively a pro-town maneuver regardless of his flip. It's a shitty one if he flips Town but it ends this debate and puts the focus elsewhere. If he's Mafia it's superbly pro-town. Mafia isn't likely to kamikaze like this and they aren't going to play pro-town.

Quote
What I said from the start of our argument till now are identical and consistent. The only consistent explanation I can get from Galzria's behavior is that he is mafia. (If you don't agree, can you do me a favor to explain the 3 red alerts I outlined in the previous page? If you can persuade me those are consistent town play, I may as well throw away my case on Galzria.)

All this is time wasted on what was said and not looking at the positions being taken.

Quote
How about Galz's arguments? He started with a story that eevee and I are scum pairs. Once he gave up fighting my arguments, he pushes a manda wagon. Then today he said eevee has always been the #1 suspect for him. And now he said his play is to enable us to move on expecting that you, manda, sharky, and YN will semi-lurk.

Looks like an active town position which always attracts negative attention from unwitting fellow townies. If eevee/timchen are paired then why is timchen taking a town position? manda has no town position. Go with the flow, remain non-committed, wait for an opportunity to interject an early non-controversial vote or maybe follow her scum buddy? What is she doing to take a pro-town position? I've already put logic into my vote on her but her continued lack of position keeps my vote on her.

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None of the actions he has taken make good sense. I've spoken a lot for his argument of me. (Even though now he said that it is because he had to take my secrecy as fakeclaim, that story does not fit how he had behaved during we are arguing.) I didn't see any reasoning why pushing a manda wagon if his #1 suspect is in fact eevee. And I don't see reasoning either why he wants us to move on without the rest of town.

Makes perfect sense to test an eevee/manda pairing. Eevee's reaction is logically easy to paint scummy but his position is arguably pro-town. What about manda's position, here?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 04:33:57 pm
And let me tell this Galz. All your accusation has confirmation bias. That is, indeed to some extent what eevee did can be viewed logically as what mafia would have done.

The problem is, what he did can also be easily explained as town. (If you want to say his insistence on frisk, do you want to lynch PPS for his insistence on you?)

My accusation on you is different. My 3 red alerts are things that I can explain logically when you are scum, but I cannot explain them logically when you are town.

Your three red flags are made up cases, or extensions of the twisted facts you believe. I've already pointed out how your summaries and logic was wrong, and so are your three red flags. They simply don't exist.
Point me to the post. Flat out lying.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 04:37:23 pm
In response to #1079

Tim, try again. I made my case in #815 (against PPS,, wrongly), corrected to you less than 3 hours later (not more than 24 as you claim) in #824, and then vote you before it's OMGUS as you claim I did, just 6 posts later in #830.

Oh, here's the votecount from #838, showing I voted for you first:

Vote Count 2-5

shark_bait (2): Eevee, Young Nick
manda2014 (2): pingpongsam, timchen
timchen (1): Galzria

Not Voting {2}: manda2014, shark_bait

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)

If you're going to "summarize" your case, it helps if you don't flat out lie.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 04:45:18 pm
@PPS: this is the most ridiculous long post I have ever read in mafia.

Let me summarize for you. Basically you are saying:

1. My statement can be understand as softclaim. Softclaim is suspicious (especially after my denial) so Galzria has right to suspect me.  (This I agree.)

2. I am suspected so I have right to suspect back. (well LOL. I have said numerous times my case on Galzria is not just because that he suspected me. It is because... well why don't you go back and read the previous pages.. I have it all written here and you just wrote here tell me you refused to read.)

3. Therefore the two must be town at each other's throat.

What you are saying is just what you are willing to believe and not what is actually happening. There is even no evidence that scum is sitting back d1.

Yet you just refuse to read what I say about Galzria. It's like I am saying:

"Look! there is light!"

And then you said

"No I smell nothing and refused to open your eyes."
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 09, 2012, 04:54:19 pm
You are correct that you and I are approaching this game from 2 entirely different angles.

You seem angry that I am following my nose and refuse to use the sight method.

I, however, am not angry at you. This is your playstyle and it appears that your style has successfully painted you as obvtown so it has some merit.

My playstyle is still in the testbed but it has a decent track record so far. Mafia games are full of long-winded posts espousing logical constructs built on faulty or contrived basis that are later proved to be worthless. That I abandon that approach should give me some immunity to not only building faulty cases (see my miserable failure on Frisk) but also to being swayed by faulty logic.

It is good for us to have different methods of approaching the game. In this way we are not so easily swayed by scum identifying the key mechanism for getting us all on their wavelength. To be angry at me for injecting diversity into the method is distracting from the scum hunt especially considering your approach is logical and logically we should want as many means of detection as we have members.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 09, 2012, 04:56:14 pm
Effectively I'm saying I smell nothing although you claim to see it.

But conversely I'm saying I smell scum over here and you are refusing to look because you don't use your nose.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 04:58:05 pm
You mean Manda, right?

I heard it. I agree with it. But I am not as sure as Galzria.

The problem is, I have already made that promise. So if Manda is not scum, then we lost. But even if we lynch Galzria now and I am just horribly wrong, we still have chance.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 09, 2012, 05:01:21 pm
I can assure you that your unrelenting resolve to abdicate your vote to Galzria's whim is as obnoxious to me as my unrelenting resolve to keep my vote on where I "smell" scum is obnoxious to you.

I ask you, which method of play strikes you as more effective?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 05:07:25 pm
In response to #1079

Tim, try again. I made my case in #815 (against PPS,, wrongly), corrected to you less than 3 hours later (not more than 24 as you claim) in #824, and then vote you before it's OMGUS as you claim I did, just 6 posts later in #830.

Oh, here's the votecount from #838, showing I voted for you first:

Vote Count 2-5

shark_bait (2): Eevee, Young Nick
manda2014 (2): pingpongsam, timchen
timchen (1): Galzria

Not Voting {2}: manda2014, shark_bait

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)

If you're going to "summarize" your case, it helps if you don't flat out lie.
Haven't I replied to that already in #1082 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3411.msg81077#msg81077)?

@PPS: one additional things on your read: on frisk's dying wish is nothing serious. If you read that way, please accept what I am saying now (as I was the one to mention it first.) and change your point of view accordingly. I was not voting for Galzria just because frisk said so. Neither was eevee I believe. I have stated numerous times that we voted for him at that stage because he has lurked at that point for more than a day.

Position is one good thing to look at I agree. But for now it does not produce definite results. What I am saying is to beg you to look closer. If you really read into what Galz has said under what time frame, it painted himself unambiguously as mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 09, 2012, 05:11:28 pm
Do you really think a Mafia Galzria would double-vote himself to L-1?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 05:15:41 pm
I can assure you that your unrelenting resolve to abdicate your vote to Galzria's whim is as obnoxious to me as my unrelenting resolve to keep my vote on where I "smell" scum is obnoxious to you.

I ask you, which method of play strikes you as more effective?
I understand how my play is obnoxious to you. I believe you can also tell that is indeed my ploy to force people to vote on Galzria. But I decided to put forth that play precisely because you refuse even to look into what I have said about Galzria.

Think about this. What you say you are doing is to some extent identical to refusing to vote for Galzria if I were a cop and claimed that I investigated him. If you only look at positions that will be of the same position as what it is there now. And just put yourself in my own seat for a bit. How does it feel if you have spent so many time putting up a clean and clear case (and ready for dispute too) and others just refuse to look at it?

Me and Galzria have put up our cases. I have disputed his to the extent that he admitted that he is wrong. I can understand he then choose a different tactics to make others not to look at the points I have made. But if you are to side with Galzria, I really think it worth your effort (especially I have already shortened it to just two posts!) to read through my reasoning. And if the reasoning does not satisfy you you can feel free to point things out.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 05:18:19 pm
Yes. Or let me ask you the reverse: how can a townie Galzria vote himself to L-1?

I am convinceable by logic. He can argue with me using logic.
Even if he can't, he can appeal to others. Let others read and judge. No need to accelerate by voting himself.

What he's doing here in my read is that he cannot wait for others to read through and judge. Because if he does, it will be clear that he is scum.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 09, 2012, 05:20:41 pm
I want to see a weigh-in from YN, manda and SB.

I shall return in 2 hours or so I've got a meeting to attend.

I agree timchen has some valid points...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 09, 2012, 05:31:35 pm
I still need to dig through this shit storm regarding Galz/TC.  I'll get to it... eventually (tonight sometime).  IMO, the process of me doing this is like a chemical reaction with a very high activation energy.  This afternoon, the energy required to overcome this barrier was not sufficient so the reaction did not proceed in a forward direction.  Tonight, I will easily overcome this barrier.  Sorry for slowing things up.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 05:35:46 pm
Nice to hear that from you sharky!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 05:38:14 pm
Yes. Or let me ask you the reverse: how can a townie Galzria vote himself to L-1?

I am convinceable by logic. He can argue with me using logic.
Even if he can't, he can appeal to others. Let others read and judge. No need to accelerate by voting himself.

What he's doing here in my read is that he cannot wait for others to read through and judge. Because if he does, it will be clear that he is scum.

And once more, I have already explained my self-vote, from a town perspective, and so has PPS. You simply refuse to acknowledge anything that contradicts what you believe, and then keep spouting that the stuff doesn't exist.

Ask yourself this: If your case is so crystal clear and perfect, why isn't anybody but you and Eevee buying into it? Do you think they're all idiots? Do you think they're all my scumbuddies? Or maybe - JUST MAYBE - there's that chance that your case isn't actually all that. It's built on faulty logic and it's been disproves on numerous occasions by me as to where your logic failed.

Your logic started failing, btw, when you accused me of responding with an OMGUS vote (and no reason given) to your case against me... When in fact I had already laid out my case on YOU, including my vote, in full, more than 60 posts prior to you accusing me.

From there, you're damn right I defended my case and vote. It wasn't until you convinced me that you could play such a terrible town that I realized the mistake in my initial case was believing that you could not.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 09, 2012, 06:08:52 pm
I'm here. Gonna spend a while reading everything, eat dinner, and then post.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 06:11:12 pm
And once more, I have already explained my self-vote, from a town perspective, and so has PPS. You simply refuse to acknowledge anything that contradicts what you believe, and then keep spouting that the stuff doesn't exist.

Ask yourself this: If your case is so crystal clear and perfect, why isn't anybody but you and Eevee buying into it? Do you think they're all idiots? Do you think they're all my scumbuddies? Or maybe - JUST MAYBE - there's that chance that your case isn't actually all that. It's built on faulty logic and it's been disproves on numerous occasions by me as to where your logic failed.

Your logic started failing, btw, when you accused me of responding with an OMGUS vote (and no reason given) to your case against me... When in fact I had already laid out my case on YOU, including my vote, in full, more than 60 posts prior to you accusing me.

From there, you're damn right I defended my case and vote. It wasn't until you convinced me that you could play such a terrible town that I realized the mistake in my initial case was believing that you could not.
1. Yes. You have explained. I acknowledge that. But I also have an explanation how you can did that as scum. Do you want to refute that? I also suggested a few other things you would be more likely to do if you were town. So yes, your self vote read more scummy than town to me.

You can say all you want that my cases do not exist. But I have pointed them all out in two posts and I will let others judge that.

2. Others have answered this for me. They are still reading it. Your argument here is a straw man argument. Sometimes things are not that easy to see (especially if part of the players are destined to confuse people.) I am open to logical reasonings. The only way that can make me take back my arguments is to just point out where they are wrong. And I believe you have already had experiences with me knowing that how quick I can retract and change when I was logically pointed out wrong. And no, as far as I can see you didn't successfully point at any place where my logic is wrong. The only thing I see is that I forgot your early vote on me (and I acknowledged that.) Maybe we can try again. You have no reason not to answer this question:

This is my red alert 1: Why did you insist that I fake-soft-claimed?

If you are town, this is what I view as a logical response to my secrecy on eevee, given that you recognize it as a softclaim:

Ok you saw a softclaim. An obvious softclaim. Is it from scum or town? Prob scum as town should not make such an obvious claim. So you pointed it out and have a conspiracy theory for that. This is fine.

Now once you pointed it out I explicitly denied. Now you should rethink. Would mafia immediately deny such claim? Then you would realize that your conspiracy theory does not actually require that softclaim to work. The goal is always to mislynch today and claim next day. Softclaim today can work, but it can only work if it stays soft. Once you reached this thought, it would then be clear that even as scum I would have no motive to fake-soft-claim in such an obvious way.

So the only conclusion can be reached is either what I did is inconsistent scum play, inconsistent town play, or after all what I said is true. Once the reasoning that such claim is obviously softclaim contradicts itself, the remaining highest possibility would be that I was telling the truth.



But no, that was not what you reached. You had plenty time to think about it after I explicitly denied that as a softclaim. So I cannot allow myself to think of you as a thoughtful townie who senses a complicated theory. Then the most probable reason for you to come up and insist on this soft-fake-claim theory is to frame me.

3. My logic does not fail there. Actually that has nothing to do with my logic. Adding the fact that you already decided to vote for me at #830, the only change is that you have a case on me earlier than I first summarized. But it still does not explain the alert above, and it does not explain why you chose to refute what I said after I explained my eevee theory rather than elaborate on your own. Actually my logic in your case is not streamlined so it's not like if I make a single mistake then the whole accusation fails. The 3 red alerts I highlighted are to some extent independent of each other. And that is why I am so sure you are scum because each of them points toward that possibility.

And still I don't see how I played a terrible town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 06:26:17 pm
It's actually kind of sad Galz. Your recent play in a sense does give me a town vibe.

But your early play spoke too loud and too much for me. If you have backed off like you did right now two days earlier I wouldn't have a case against you.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 06:36:58 pm
It's actually kind of sad Galz. Your recent play in a sense does give me a town vibe.

But your early play spoke too loud and too much for me. If you have backed off like you did right now two days earlier I wouldn't have a case against you.

Red Alert #1 explanation: I insisted it was a softclaim because it obviously was meant to be unless you were oblivious to what you said. I didn't believe you would be that oblivious. I was wrong. Next?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 06:43:21 pm
Red Alert #1 explanation: I insisted it was a softclaim because it obviously was meant to be unless you were oblivious to what you said. I didn't believe you would be that oblivious. I was wrong. Next?
Next: why did you not realize that the theory you therefore put forth is self-contradictory as I have repeatedly point out (which should then lead you to consider your presumption is wrong)? Or alternatively, why did you not just argue 2 days ago that I must have softclaimed. I denied. So I lied? (as this is essentially what you are saying right now.)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 07:02:20 pm
Red Alert #1 explanation: I insisted it was a softclaim because it obviously was meant to be unless you were oblivious to what you said. I didn't believe you would be that oblivious. I was wrong. Next?
Next: why did you not realize that the theory you therefore put forth is self-contradictory as I have repeatedly point out (which should then lead you to consider your presumption is wrong)? Or alternatively, why did you not just argue 2 days ago that I must have softclaimed. I denied. So I lied? (as this is essentially what you are saying right now.)

It is not contradictory. Once called out on the softclaim, scum can do 2 things:

Admit that's what it was

Or

Claim it wasn't.

If they admit to having softclaimed, they get called out as a liar by a PR in 66% of the games straight out of the gates. This is not good for them because it will lead to their lynch either today or tomorrow at the latest. Would a scum be willing to risk that? No, that's ridiculous, so instead you do the safe scum thing of backing up, trying to deny it existed.

As town, you've got two options:

Admit that it was a softclaim

Or

Claim it wasn't.

Now, I understand a town player saying "no, I didn't mean to softclaim - boy I worded that poorly. I can understand why you might think I did" - but this is not what you said. You said "Galzria is making up fake theories about me and claiming I softclaimef which I never did!"

The fact is, whether you meant to or not (and yes, I have a hard time believing it was unintentional), you softclaimed something. Period. I wasn't the only person to see it, and rather than acknowledging the mistake, you decided to pretend it simply didn't exist, and proceeded to OMGUS attack and vote me over my calling you out - repeatedly - on it.

You never once admitted that it was there, even if it was a mistake. A mistake I can look past. Denial of the existence of the intentions of a past that most people read to mean "I'm softclaiming" is scummy.

So of the two "back away from the claim" possibilities above, you took the much more scummy path, and I pursued it as such.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 07:16:44 pm
Galz, I don't understand what you are talking about in your second part.

@manda: To clarify, I was not soft-claiming there. I have (logical, not definite) reasons to believe that eevee is not scum currently but I think it is better not to reveal it yet.
This is how I explicitly denied at #827. This is a post I have quoted in my summary. I dunno what you expect me to say otherwise to deny it. I can say "sorry, it was not meant to be a soft-claim!" but does that make any difference?

And I definitely did not accuse you back until #901, which is after I explained fully what my alleged soft-claim was. There is simply no ambiguity, and I didn't take it up to you at all (before you again took it up to me without reason).

Did you miss my post #827 in the first place? Have you really read my summary? Too lazy as a scum to do? What you are stating here is clearly not what happened. Or are you now twisting the facts?
 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 07:24:32 pm
Also, it is self-contradictory in the sense that your theory contains both that my alleged softclaim is too obvious not to be called out and at that in order to succeed I cannot to be called out. Or more straightforwardly:

If I were scum to put forward this plan you proposed, I should not have soft-claimed in an obvious way because in my plann I could not afford to be called out. This directly violates your assumption/observation that my alleged softclaim is "too obvious" and therefore I cannot be a scum with a plan like that. 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 07:27:26 pm
Argh... fixed the first sentence:

Also, it is self-contradictory in the sense that your theory contains both that my alleged softclaim is too obvious not to be called out and that in order to succeed I cannot be called out.

In short it says something like I behave too obviously due to some reason that requires me not to behave that obviously... which is self-contradictory.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 07:39:43 pm
Argh... fixed the first sentence:

Also, it is self-contradictory in the sense that your theory contains both that my alleged softclaim is too obvious not to be called out and that in order to succeed I cannot be called out.

In short it says something like I behave too obviously due to some reason that requires me not to behave that obviously... which is self-contradictory.

Not at all, at the time I was making that case, I certainly did NOT think you wanted to be called out, which is exactly why you made it so obvious.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 07:50:24 pm
That's interesting. So the more obvious I make it the less likely it will be called out?

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 09, 2012, 07:52:41 pm
Ummm... wow. 

@sharky: you are falling into Galz's trap.

Please just see who he has accused. First he went strongly on me and eevee together as a team. Then he switched to manda. Now he says how affirmative he is about eevee.

I swear to my heart there is no single logical fallacy on my arguments on Galzria. (If you do not agree I welcome you to point out where you find unsatisfying or even wrong.) And my argument points toward Galzria as a highly likely mafia. Specifically, I pointed out under several circumstances what Galzr did is not so explanable as town behavior.

To compare, what do you guys have on eevee? Just that he sheeps my reads too much? Why can a townie not do that (given that you do not find a place where my argument is fallacious?)

My goat with Eevee (which has been around long before Galz suggested it) - I came to the conclusion that scum might try to form a wagon against me as I would be considered an "easy" or "safe" lynch target.  Eevee came right out of the gate D2 with multiple sharky is skummy statements.  Vote for sharky!  I proposed the argument above as why Eevee was scummy.  I still hold to that argument.  Especially in light of Eevee's insistence of helping tc push the galz wagon.  In my mind, I am getting town reads on both tc and galz because it really looks like all of this was a big misunderstanding where a few details were lost by BOTH sides.  I have read reasonable arguments from both sides and I really want both to be town.  This is all I have time for now, but I will be back on later tonight.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 07:55:11 pm
Guys, I have a really good reason for thinking Manda is town. Like, really good. You should just trust me on this because I'd rather not say why, but we should look at YN and Sharky instead.


Tell me that doesn't scream PR investigation? And if you read it, would you go "No, Galz, you need to claim NOW", or would you think "Man, he's probably the cop who investigated Manda and just doesn't wasn't to claim"?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 07:56:51 pm
((The above is not real, but an illustration of a point))
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 09, 2012, 07:57:46 pm
Haha, I'm glad you ended that post as you did because I was thinking, "what the holy... not again".
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 08:00:33 pm
If I look that I would say it is definitely not a claim as claiming such thing as a cop is just stupid. Why do a cop want to paint a target on his back?

A scum fakeclaim in such obvious manner is also stupid. Is the scum pretending to be a stupid cop?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 08:01:29 pm
Let alone breadcrumbing for later claim, such obvious claim is already highly suspicious if not NKed.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 08:02:58 pm
If I look that I would say it is definitely not a claim as claiming such thing as a cop is just stupid. Why do a cop want to paint a target on his back?

A scum fakeclaim in such obvious manner is also stupid. Is the scum pretending to be a stupid cop?

I agree on your first point. I disagree on your second.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 08:03:48 pm
But the first leads to the second. Unless you are talking about a stupid scum.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 08:05:24 pm
Let alone breadcrumbing for later claim, such obvious claim is already highly suspicious if not NKed.

Again, I disagree. Even if he's not NK'd, all it takes is a full-claim, however unbelievable YOU find it D3, and town must decide to lynch the claimed cop or lose.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 08:06:27 pm
Let alone breadcrumbing for later claim, such obvious claim is already highly suspicious if not NKed.

Again, I disagree. Even if he's not NK'd, all it takes is a full-claim, however unbelievable YOU find it D3, and town must decide to lynch the claimed cop or lose.

And not just one town, but ALL THREE must decide to lynch the cop-claim
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 08:09:10 pm
That is, ok, I read your post about manda. In my thoughts:

1. Are you a stupid cop? WTF...
2. Ok, if not, are you then a scum fakeclaiming? (you stopped here and say yes, but I will continue as below)
3. If you were, then you are just drawing attention onto yourself with no benefit (as nobody will really think you are a cop because it is stupid for a cop to claim)
4. So you are probably not a scum fakeclaiming. Then what are you doing? And then I will ask. It is so obvious it shouldn't hurt to ask right?

And that is in my eyes what happened in my instance. And I explained what I said is just that. And later I speak out of what I kept secret and why. But then you are attacking me without reason.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 08:10:51 pm
Let alone breadcrumbing for later claim, such obvious claim is already highly suspicious if not NKed.

Again, I disagree. Even if he's not NK'd, all it takes is a full-claim, however unbelievable YOU find it D3, and town must decide to lynch the claimed cop or lose.

And not just one town, but ALL THREE must decide to lynch the cop-claim
So basically you are saying the town is willing to believe he is a stupid cop after all. So you are not only disagreeing with my second point but also the first.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 08:14:18 pm
That is, ok, I read your post about manda. In my thoughts:

1. Are you a stupid cop? WTF...
2. Ok, if not, are you then a scum fakeclaiming? (you stopped here and say yes, but I will continue as below)
3. If you were, then you are just drawing attention onto yourself with no benefit (as nobody will really think you are a cop because it is stupid for a cop to claim)
4. So you are probably not a scum fakeclaiming. Then what are you doing? And then I will ask. It is so obvious it shouldn't hurt to ask right?

And that is in my eyes what happened in my instance. And I explained what I said is just that. And later I speak out of what I kept secret and why. But then you are attacking me without reason.

There was no reason to take it further. A cop does not have a reason to make that claim. Scum does. End of story. Are you stupid cop or scum? I figured scum. Now it's neither. Now the claim was just stupid.

I never attacked you without reason. Not once. My case was laid out prior to yours, and every response I made after was in response to false accusations you made against me.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 08:16:46 pm
Let alone breadcrumbing for later claim, such obvious claim is already highly suspicious if not NKed.

Again, I disagree. Even if he's not NK'd, all it takes is a full-claim, however unbelievable YOU find it D3, and town must decide to lynch the claimed cop or lose.

And not just one town, but ALL THREE must decide to lynch the cop-claim
So basically you are saying the town is willing to believe he is a stupid cop after all. So you are not only disagreeing with my second point but also the first.

I believe that a cop claim out of the gates D3 lylo will be believed, no matter how poorly breadcrumbed it was earlier because your only other option is lynch the cop, which simply won't happen.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 08:17:47 pm
That is, ok, I read your post about manda. In my thoughts:

1. Are you a stupid cop? WTF...
2. Ok, if not, are you then a scum fakeclaiming? (you stopped here and say yes, but I will continue as below)
3. If you were, then you are just drawing attention onto yourself with no benefit (as nobody will really think you are a cop because it is stupid for a cop to claim)
4. So you are probably not a scum fakeclaiming. Then what are you doing? And then I will ask. It is so obvious it shouldn't hurt to ask right?

And that is in my eyes what happened in my instance. And I explained what I said is just that. And later I speak out of what I kept secret and why. But then you are attacking me without reason.

There was no reason to take it further. A cop does not have a reason to make that claim. Scum does. End of story. Are you stupid cop or scum? I figured scum. Now it's neither. Now the claim was just stupid.

I never attacked you without reason. Not once. My case was laid out prior to yours, and every response I made after was in response to false accusations you made against me.

Scum has no reason either as I outlined above. Can you not read that?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 08:19:59 pm
Let alone breadcrumbing for later claim, such obvious claim is already highly suspicious if not NKed.

Again, I disagree. Even if he's not NK'd, all it takes is a full-claim, however unbelievable YOU find it D3, and town must decide to lynch the claimed cop or lose.

And not just one town, but ALL THREE must decide to lynch the cop-claim
So basically you are saying the town is willing to believe he is a stupid cop after all. So you are not only disagreeing with my second point but also the first.

I believe that a cop claim out of the gates D3 lylo will be believed, no matter how poorly breadcrumbed it was earlier because your only other option is lynch the cop, which simply won't happen.
I don't know why you think so. It is almost equivalent as a full claim d2 this way. And how come a full-claimed cop remain alive d3 without a doctor, and how come that cop decided to claim without finding a scum? If that happens I am all for lynching the cop. And if I cannot convince the town the town deserves to lose.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 08:20:32 pm
That is, ok, I read your post about manda. In my thoughts:

1. Are you a stupid cop? WTF...
2. Ok, if not, are you then a scum fakeclaiming? (you stopped here and say yes, but I will continue as below)
3. If you were, then you are just drawing attention onto yourself with no benefit (as nobody will really think you are a cop because it is stupid for a cop to claim)
4. So you are probably not a scum fakeclaiming. Then what are you doing? And then I will ask. It is so obvious it shouldn't hurt to ask right?

And that is in my eyes what happened in my instance. And I explained what I said is just that. And later I speak out of what I kept secret and why. But then you are attacking me without reason.

There was no reason to take it further. A cop does not have a reason to make that claim. Scum does. End of story. Are you stupid cop or scum? I figured scum. Now it's neither. Now the claim was just stupid.

I never attacked you without reason. Not once. My case was laid out prior to yours, and every response I made after was in response to false accusations you made against me.

Scum has no reason either as I outlined above. Can you not read that?

I don't just believe that you're wrong, I know that you are, because I've seen scum do it. Just because you don't think something can happen doesn't mean that it can not.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 08:21:55 pm
Let alone breadcrumbing for later claim, such obvious claim is already highly suspicious if not NKed.

Again, I disagree. Even if he's not NK'd, all it takes is a full-claim, however unbelievable YOU find it D3, and town must decide to lynch the claimed cop or lose.

And not just one town, but ALL THREE must decide to lynch the cop-claim
So basically you are saying the town is willing to believe he is a stupid cop after all. So you are not only disagreeing with my second point but also the first.

I believe that a cop claim out of the gates D3 lylo will be believed, no matter how poorly breadcrumbed it was earlier because your only other option is lynch the cop, which simply won't happen.
I don't know why you think so. It is almost equivalent as a full claim d2 this way. And how come a full-claimed cop remain alive d3 without a doctor, and how come that cop decided to claim without finding a scum? If that happens I am all for lynching the cop. And if I cannot convince the town the town deserves to lose.

"IF I can't make the town see things my way, they deserve to lose" - nice attitude.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 09, 2012, 08:40:54 pm
"IF I can't make the town see things my way, they deserve to lose" - nice attitude.

A bit rich coming from the guy whose actions say, "If I can't make Town see things my way I shall fall on my sword".
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 08:54:28 pm
"IF I can't make the town see things my way, they deserve to lose" - nice attitude.

A bit rich coming from the guy whose actions say, "If I can't make Town see things my way I shall fall on my sword".

Only if you consider my play to be against town wincon, and as laid out, I do not. There are 2-3 town that have been less than active, and without their voices and votes a scumlynch simply cannot happen. (Which is why it's unfathomable to me that Timchen thinks I would self-vote or bus as scum - both of which I've been accused of).

Given the inability to lynch scum then, our options are lynch town or no-lynch. A no-lynch means a free kill for the Mafia, and any town member other than me or Timchen is a win for the Mafia since Tim will continue to insist I'm scum in lylo, handing the victory to the Mafia.

Thus the only logical conclusion to end this ceaseless cycle of arguing and give the town any chance to win is to lynch me or Tim. Since I don't think Tim is mafia, and he thinks I am, it makes the most sense for me to be the one that dies.

That said, if we could somehow get the 4 votes needed to lynch a scum today, I would gladly change my vote. But given that a mislynch doesn't end in lylo, it ends in a loss, I think there is more value in my being removed, proving I'm town, and going from there.

((mislynch not on me or Timchen = loss because he will give the scum the one vote they need on me tomorrow to hammer and win))
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 09, 2012, 08:56:51 pm
Oh I agree with your analysis I was just relishing the irony of the pot noting the particular shade of gray sported by kettle.

We still have time and we still haven't heard from some of those I suspect most but I find the lack of a hammer on Galzria an indicator that he may well be scum.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 09:02:36 pm
Oh I agree with your analysis I was just relishing the irony of the pot noting the particular shade of gray sported by kettle.

We still have time and we still haven't heard from some of those I suspect most but I find the lack of a hammer on Galzria an indicator that he may well be scum.

Do you really think scum would come along and say "Oh lookie! Goodie goodie! L-1! How delicious! HAMMMMMMMMMER!"?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 09, 2012, 09:11:39 pm
In a word, yes.

Other than hammer vote scrutiny what's the loss to Mafia if you are town?

One of the best ploys scum could use at this point is to hammer a Mafia Galz since it should shunt the attention from them when you flip scum. The problem is it definitely puts the onus on them to play a strong end-game. From what I can tell Mafia isn't having to play this game at all.

The best question in this case is which non-Galz-wagon member would look the guiltiest if they hammered Galz?
I'm not seeing an obvious candidate, so I would expect the hammer voter to appear no more guilty than anyone else on the Galzria wagon.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 09:14:03 pm
PPS: Do you have a town read, null read, or scum read on Eevee?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 09, 2012, 09:24:08 pm
My head is really spinning from all of this game day. The only thing I can come up with is that Galz and Timchen have both been playing so over-the-top that they MUST both be town. Scum isn't going to bring itself to L-1, and scum isn't going to promise town a vote. So, we should look elsewhere.

As far as defending myself, I've been trying to avoid doing that because the way I see it, town doesn't really need to defend itself. None of the accusations made against me are false (that I haven't been posting much and that I haven't taken any firm position on anyone), but I'm certainly not scum. I haven't posted much because I have RL commitments (getting ready to move, for one) that take up most of my time. I try to keep up with the reading, but I can't post all the time. I suppose that could be considered lurking, but it's definitely not a scumplay. I underestimated how much time the game was going to take, I suppose. As far as taking a strong position is concerned, like I've said before, I'm not going to take a strong position if I'm not certain of it, and at this point I'm definitely not certain of anything, except that I'm fairly sure Galz and timchen are both town, like I said before.

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 09, 2012, 09:35:49 pm
PPS: Do you have a town read, null read, or scum read on Eevee?

Initially Town for a long time. Recent play could be interpreted as scummy. I'd have to call it null at this point.

Position smell says all of his play is ultimately pro-town.

Logic says he is scummy for insisting manda to be Town and voting against Galzria.

I could support an Eevee lynch if a case could be made which I believe I asked for previously to no avail (correct me if I'm wrong). I'm really trying to avoid the case building business since I got burned so bad with Frisk. My M6 play was about smells and I'm running with that formula here.

Questions back to Galz;
Do you really, actually want us to lynch you to progress the game or would you prefer we wait and try to smoke out some real scum?

If you think someone else is high prob scum do you have any angles on that?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 09, 2012, 09:37:02 pm
Do you really, actually want us to lynch you to progress the game or would you prefer we wait and try to smoke out some real scum?

Also, if you flip Town, what then? Who would you be looking at?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 09:47:41 pm
Oh I agree with your analysis I was just relishing the irony of the pot noting the particular shade of gray sported by kettle.

We still have time and we still haven't heard from some of those I suspect most but I find the lack of a hammer on Galzria an indicator that he may well be scum.

Do you really think scum would come along and say "Oh lookie! Goodie goodie! L-1! How delicious! HAMMMMMMMMMER!"?
In this case, the only reason that no scum is hammering is because eevee is scum.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 09:49:03 pm
PPS: Do you have a town read, null read, or scum read on Eevee?

Initially Town for a long time. Recent play could be interpreted as scummy. I'd have to call it null at this point.

Position smell says all of his play is ultimately pro-town.

Logic says he is scummy for insisting manda to be Town and voting against Galzria.

I could support an Eevee lynch if a case could be made which I believe I asked for previously to no avail (correct me if I'm wrong). I'm really trying to avoid the case building business since I got burned so bad with Frisk. My M6 play was about smells and I'm running with that formula here.

Questions back to Galz;
Do you really, actually want us to lynch you to progress the game or would you prefer we wait and try to smoke out some real scum?

If you think someone else is high prob scum do you have any angles on that?

Pah. It's a difficult question. If we lynch someone else and are wrong, it's gameover - there is no lylo. With Timchen voting for me tomorrow, scum win because all they need is one misplaced vote, and he'll be providing it.

In that sense, if we look for scum elsewhere, we must treat today as lylo... And there are simply more targets to choose from (although one miscast vote doesn't ruin us). So it's tough.

With Timchen willing to hand the scum their wincon tomorrow by voting me, it does almost feel better to lynch me and remove that situation. The problem is, I don't want to be a Vig here... That is, I really don't want to say "lynch me then sheep my reads" because while I DO think I'm right on Eevee, it's not my game to win or lose. It's a team game, and I'm not willing to stake the entire team win on my read.

That said, there is probably a pretty good chance that if you lynch me now, Timchen gets NK'd for being essentially an Innocent Child (how I view him at least). This leaves Eevee/YN/PPS/Manda/SB... This thread will get so quiet, lol! No, really, outside my own, personal beliefs on Eevee, any of those 5 could be scum. So I would ask that Eevee is certainly considered, but that each person makes their own decision based on their own reads.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 09:49:56 pm
That is, ok, I read your post about manda. In my thoughts:

1. Are you a stupid cop? WTF...
2. Ok, if not, are you then a scum fakeclaiming? (you stopped here and say yes, but I will continue as below)
3. If you were, then you are just drawing attention onto yourself with no benefit (as nobody will really think you are a cop because it is stupid for a cop to claim)
4. So you are probably not a scum fakeclaiming. Then what are you doing? And then I will ask. It is so obvious it shouldn't hurt to ask right?

And that is in my eyes what happened in my instance. And I explained what I said is just that. And later I speak out of what I kept secret and why. But then you are attacking me without reason.

There was no reason to take it further. A cop does not have a reason to make that claim. Scum does. End of story. Are you stupid cop or scum? I figured scum. Now it's neither. Now the claim was just stupid.

I never attacked you without reason. Not once. My case was laid out prior to yours, and every response I made after was in response to false accusations you made against me.

Scum has no reason either as I outlined above. Can you not read that?

I don't just believe that you're wrong, I know that you are, because I've seen scum do it. Just because you don't think something can happen doesn't mean that it can not.
As I said if scum does that it is stupid scum. Not disapproving my point.

The whole point is that scum CANNOT do that to their advantage. Therefore, you cannot judge that they are scum by the fact they are doing that. Just like what I have done in this game.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 09:53:08 pm
That is, ok, I read your post about manda. In my thoughts:

1. Are you a stupid cop? WTF...
2. Ok, if not, are you then a scum fakeclaiming? (you stopped here and say yes, but I will continue as below)
3. If you were, then you are just drawing attention onto yourself with no benefit (as nobody will really think you are a cop because it is stupid for a cop to claim)
4. So you are probably not a scum fakeclaiming. Then what are you doing? And then I will ask. It is so obvious it shouldn't hurt to ask right?

And that is in my eyes what happened in my instance. And I explained what I said is just that. And later I speak out of what I kept secret and why. But then you are attacking me without reason.

There was no reason to take it further. A cop does not have a reason to make that claim. Scum does. End of story. Are you stupid cop or scum? I figured scum. Now it's neither. Now the claim was just stupid.

I never attacked you without reason. Not once. My case was laid out prior to yours, and every response I made after was in response to false accusations you made against me.

Scum has no reason either as I outlined above. Can you not read that?

I don't just believe that you're wrong, I know that you are, because I've seen scum do it. Just because you don't think something can happen doesn't mean that it can not.
As I said if scum does that it is stupid scum. Not disapproving my point.

The whole point is that scum CANNOT do that to their advantage. Therefore, you cannot judge that they are scum by the fact they are doing that. Just like what I have done in this game.

And yet Robz breadcrumbed doctor D2 in M-II, full claimed it D3, and that remains to this point the only perfect Mafia win.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 09:56:01 pm
Galz: two point I want to make to you.

1. Please explain why you only wanted to discuss with me these "logical questions" ~3 days after I have been accusing you being self-contradictory.

2. I am willing to concede that my read on you might be more from that you are illogical rather than that you are scum. The only catch is that you really only start to show how illogical you are today.

p.s.

3. I am not saying now I think you are town. But I am at this point not interested in knowing the answer to that question any more. You still control my vote. So make good use of it. And to the rest of town: if you are afraid of Galz's such power, you have to lynch him today.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 09:57:33 pm
@Galz: I'll go ahead and read that and tell you what I think afterwards.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2012, 10:11:24 pm
Galz: two point I want to make to you.

1. Please explain why you only wanted to discuss with me these "logical questions" ~3 days after I have been accusing you being self-contradictory.

2. I am willing to concede that my read on you might be more from that you are illogical rather than that you are scum. The only catch is that you really only start to show how illogical you are today.

p.s.

3. I am not saying now I think you are town. But I am at this point not interested in knowing the answer to that question any more. You still control my vote. So make good use of it. And to the rest of town: if you are afraid of Galz's such power, you have to lynch him today.

I haven't waited until today... I've been arguing with you almost nonstop for the past 2 days (felt like 2 weeks, lol)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 10:45:55 pm
Yeah. But I didn't realize we have that different reasoning at such fundamental level.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 09, 2012, 10:59:58 pm
You realize part of why I haven't said much... is because it's been so damn difficult to make it through all of the banter between you two.  The pace at which it has come down combined with the level of accusations thrown around is quite challenging to follow. To be honest, the most helpful thing about your discussion was tc's post which had post numbers listed and Galz's response to it.  Consequently, I don't see myself voting for either of you today.

My vote will continue to stay on Eevee due the combination of my assumption regarding mafia play and my gut instinct.  Apart from my D1 shenanigans, manda's play seems similar to myself actually.  Not really posting too much.  But making sure to get some posts in and respond when called upon.  As a first timer like me, I'm actually inclined to think that she really is playing protown.  I could be wrong but I guess right now I'm getting more of a read that tells me that she is "semi" new and learning the ropes.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 11:03:32 pm
Quote
But making sure to get some posts in and respond when called upon.

I thought this is called expert lurking and is more mafia play?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 09, 2012, 11:05:39 pm
Is it?  This is my first (real) mafia game.  I can't say I have the best experience for scum tells and town tells yet.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 09, 2012, 11:13:41 pm
Sigh. Apparently asking me is asking the wrong person. I don't know honestly. It's a null read for me. But it is the scum playstyle that is hardest to catch, simply because there are town players who have to play like that just because of their schedule.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 10, 2012, 12:15:56 am
And yet Robz breadcrumbed doctor D2 in M-II, full claimed it D3, and that remains to this point the only perfect Mafia win.

Now I start wondering again. I think you are faking to be unreasonable. This one is to the extreme, or you assume I won't spend two hours going there and check.

Seriously, how is MII any relevant to the case we are discussing? The way Robz breadcrumbed is such that it cannot be discovered d2. Does my statement that "Oh! I have a secret reason why eevee is town" look anything like that? And I thought we finally start to understand what each other is talking about.

It is precisely what I said. The claim HAS to be a claim that can not be noticed d2. If people knew Robz is doctor d2, was still alive d3 and had missed 2 saves, they would lynch him in no time.

Someone please come in and lynch Galzria. I really beg you for it. All his arguments are inconsistent and fake.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 10, 2012, 12:24:33 am
And yet Robz breadcrumbed doctor D2 in M-II, full claimed it D3, and that remains to this point the only perfect Mafia win.

Now I start wondering again. I think you are faking to be unreasonable. This one is to the extreme, or you assume I won't spend two hours going there and check.

Seriously, how is MII any relevant to the case we are discussing? The way Robz breadcrumbed is such that it cannot be discovered d2. Does my statement that "Oh! I have a secret reason why eevee is town" look anything like that? And I thought we finally start to understand what each other is talking about.

It is precisely what I said. The claim HAS to be a claim that can not be noticed d2. If people knew Robz is doctor d2, was still alive d3 and had missed 2 saves, they would lynch him in no time.

Someone please come in and lynch Galzria. I really beg you for it. All his arguments are inconsistent and fake.

You think it's easy for a Doctor to just pick and choose who he saves and get it right? Missing 2 saves is really pretty easy to explain away... And look, he did! And like I said, the only reason it worked is because he DIDN'T get called out on it D2, which is exactly why I DID call you out here. Because choosing to ignore it if you were scum = scum win.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 10, 2012, 12:41:36 am
You still don't get my point? My point is that my initial claim already makes this impossible. In MII what Robz did in d2 cannot be viewed as a softclaim in that day.

Say what he said early d2 was "I knew K wouldn't be dead last night." Now this is something comparable to what I have said. If he has said that and nobody further questioned (well it would already be a miracle if nobody questioned) and not dead 2nd night, if he fullclaimed d3 he will be lynched.

You see, if you put it in such an obvious way yet the scum did not respond to it by NK you, there are only two possibilities: (1) the scums are too incompetent (2) you are scum fakeclaiming. And this is precisely why in this plan you cannot softclaim in an obvious way.

In other words, in our current case, it does not matter at all if you didn't call me out. If I survived second night and claim full cop, it is just too fake for any conscious townie to believe. Because if my claim is genuine there is 0% chance the scum chose not to kill me n2.

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 10, 2012, 12:44:09 am
Seriously, it will be disgusting if you are town. It is not because I read you wrong; it is because your logic and reasoning is pathetic and I have wasted so much time trying to probe things out from nothing.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 10, 2012, 12:46:43 am
Seriously, it will be disgusting if you are town. It is not because I read you wrong; it is because your logic and reasoning is pathetic and I have wasted so much time trying to probe things out from nothing.

That would be true if your case against me had any merit, and it never has. So yes, I suppose you have wasted your time to "probe things out" for nothing in that sense.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 10, 2012, 12:50:43 am
Yeah, I see we agree here. If you flipped scum then my case has merit. I would be happier if that is the case. Also you are more logical in this case so you can be happier too.

But if you were town apparent my case wouldn't have merit. And I have just wasted my whole time. And further we are one step closer to losing. No one is happy.

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 10, 2012, 12:54:31 am
I should add, I now think you actually agree with me in secret that my case on you makes tons of sense but just because of your role you have to fake it and say you think it makes no sense.

I now have no reason not to lynch you. You are either scum or a illogical townie. Either case I would be happy to get rid off.

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 10, 2012, 12:54:42 am
Yeah, I see we agree here. If you flipped scum then my case has merit. I would be happier if that is the case. Also you are more logical in this case so you can be happier too.

But if you were town apparent my case wouldn't have merit. And I have just wasted my whole time. And further we are one step closer to losing. No one is happy.

Hey, to that I can mostly agree - EXCEPT, that unless we can lynch a mafiosi today, a mislynch on anybody BUT me means gameover, since your vote on me tomorrow will hand Mafia the win... SO, if town is to have any chance of winning this game they need to do 1 of 2 things:

1. Lynch Mafia today.

Or

2. Lynch me.

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 10, 2012, 12:56:34 am
We probably need to lynch you. I have decided I am not going to move my vote elsewhere today. And I really doubt that you can make the rest of the townies to vote on a single target.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 10, 2012, 12:56:49 am
I should add, I now think you actually agree with me in secret that my case on you makes tons of sense but just because of your role you have to fake it and say you think it makes no sense.

I now have no reason not to lynch you. You are either scum or a illogical townie. Either case I would be happy to get rid off.

There's a difference between a wrong argument (which mine was), and a bad argument (which yours is).
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 10, 2012, 12:57:53 am
If you were town then my argument is a bad argument. But yours is proved wrong.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 10, 2012, 12:59:12 am
Galz, now you should work on getting the town to vote for someone you deem as scummy instead of talking with me further. Otherwise in no time I am going to start accusing you scummy because you are leading to no lynch. :P
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 10, 2012, 01:02:24 am
If you were town then my argument is a bad argument. But yours is proved wrong.

I've admitted to it being wrong. It's why I've said for the past like... 5 pages that I'm sure you're town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 10, 2012, 01:04:14 am
Galz, now you should work on getting the town to vote for someone you deem as scummy instead of talking with me further. Otherwise in no time I am going to start accusing you scummy because you are leading to no lynch. :P

You can't claim that, I'm on the wagon that is at L-1! ::)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 10, 2012, 01:09:38 am
Yes. I know. How sad. I don't think I can convince anybody. A no lynch today means I will be dead tonight. And tomorrow you can take along your minion PPS to wipe out the rest of our town.

Shall I call it an interesting day? Talking with you today has taken me from being sure that you are mafia, then not so sure, then ok, maybe different people can have different reasonings and there are misunderstandings as well, then OMG you mentioned MII, I took 2 hours reading it, and found that the case is just not applicable; while we have been discussing how our current case is like... for infinitely long? Then I am forced to conclude that today I was again confused by your random arguments. The MII comment by you is just a random comment that went too far into the unbelievable zone that draws me back to the beginning.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 10, 2012, 01:14:45 am
Yes. I know. How sad. I don't think I can convince anybody. A no lynch today means I will be dead tonight. And tomorrow you can take along your minion PPS to wipe out the rest of our town.

Shall I call it an interesting day? Talking with you today has taken me from being sure that you are mafia, then not so sure, then ok, maybe different people can have different reasonings and there are misunderstandings as well, then OMG you mentioned MII, I took 2 hours reading it, and found that the case is just not applicable; while we have been discussing how our current case is like... for infinitely long? Then I am forced to conclude that today I was again confused by your random arguments. The MII comment by you is just a random comment that went too far into the unbelievable zone that draws me back to the beginning.

I think the M-II comment is quite applicable in that all breadcrumbs must be called out, period.

However, leaving that aside, M-II was one of my favorite Mafia games so far. It's the only normal game I've gotten to be scum in (not commenting on this or any other live games). How do you think of my play there in comparison to here? Honestly, compare the two, and what do you think?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 10, 2012, 01:24:57 am
I'm still alive, I promise! Real life has been busy lately. In fact, I hate to say it, but sometimes I am playing board games with my friends instead of attending to this game. I keep trying to convince my friend that forum mafia is better than quick-play mafia (where days last 5-10 minutes).

In other news, 7 Wonders with Leaders is surprisingly fun, and I love Settlers with Cities & Knights but few of my friends are willing to brave the learning curve and play Dominion with me. I'll post as I can this weekend. Still catching up.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 10, 2012, 01:44:22 am
Galz you may be disappointed, as I didn't get to read every post. I searched through Robz posts (since you said he fakeclaimed doctor) and skim through the posts near by when it looks like something important.

I don't find your post in that game particularly scummy. However I do find Robz's quite scummy. He switches too many targets. However, if I were in the game I would still vote for ins d3 though. His early vote on Robz that does not end the game meant one of them is scum. And scums wouldn't usually want to get on the same wagon d1 is a strong reasoning for me. Also, as a townie voting for Robz early in d3... well that is just too dangerous. So if I were in that game you will have me fooled. I am not sure how much that is acheived by some sort of newbie play though.

One thing I find in common between the current game and MII: at some point you have been commented by the town generally you have a high town read. But we don't see that in MIV and MVI. You know your alliances in those games; that does not speak well for you in this one.

It seems to me that in a game you are town you probably play less carefully so there are scummy things to be caught. In a game you are mafia you then be more careful. And your tone some how gives people a town feeling. That is why in this game and in MII people have commented that you are pretty towny.

You actually tried to change that in this game d1 by voting for the guy you suspect second.

So I would say, meta suggested that you are mafia in this current game.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 10, 2012, 01:56:48 am
Yeah, about that whole "appearing town" thing - I tried it in M-III and got my ass handed to me D1 as town. After that I decided that the best way to play town was scummy, and it worked a little in M-IV, and well enough in M-VI...

Ok, I wasn't INTENTIONALLY scummy, but I wasn't as careful either. Here in M-VII,, well you're right. I backed off things and slowed it down because we had more new players. I played a lot more... "Safe" as Cayvie calls it. That's a fair meta-comparison absolutely. I have NO problems with that.

However, if you carried the meta out, you would see that my play here is NOTHING like M-II, where every word was meticulously crafted. I wrote pages and pages and pages of information AND analysis. You could hardly claim my play in this game in any way matches my play in that game in the simple terms of how I present myself in the game.

Still, one way or another, I'm not a huge fan of meta. I don't like people intentionally playing to a meta because I feel it's ultimately anti-town. I just wanted, or rather hoped, that you would take the time to read and understand how an ACTUAL scum Galz plays. Maybe after I die and flip town you'll be willing to? Up to you... Just a simple (well, perhaps tedious) request.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 10, 2012, 02:05:35 am
I am also not a fan of meta either.

But just to comment, indeed in this game you played pretty different. Before our argument, if I recall correctly, you have been terse. Careful and terse.

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 10, 2012, 06:17:03 am
So, the folks who I see as the scummiest have sauntered in and said, "oh, woes is me, this game requires you to read and attend and actually think and respond and jeez guys, it's moving so fast (even though only 2 people are actually generating much content and 1 guy is posting reasonably but sticking to the same guns and one guy was posting but has disappeared apparently because we are in deadlock) and I can't be bothered to make any analysis and oh well deadline looms you guys sort it out, ok"

Scum is so happy, they don't have to play and Town is left to argue over which Town to kill and if they can't decided who to mislynch they just get attritioned off after deadline.

And we are not punishing the scummiest behavior in the book because.... well, I don't know, why aren't we?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 10, 2012, 06:29:25 am
Just to clarify the intensity of my above post: I was working under the assumption deadline was today or tomorrow and just confirmed it to be Monday so a little leniency for the promises that the silent Mafia might actually give us something to work with between now and deadline.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 10, 2012, 07:04:24 am
Yeah, I'm just going to go ahead and Vote: manda. Thats L-1.

If manda is town, shark_bait almost has to be the lurky mafia. I still think there is a good chance Galz is scum, but I guess less so than previously. PPS and Nick read townier to me, timchen I too am quite sure is town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 10, 2012, 07:32:22 am
Yeah, I'm just going to go ahead and Vote: manda. Thats L-1.

If manda is town, shark_bait almost has to be the lurky mafia. I still think there is a good chance Galz is scum, but I guess less so than previously. PPS and Nick read townier to me, timchen I too am quite sure is town.

Wow, we need a vote count. Having said that, I thought that is only two votes on her. Last vote count was on page 45 or 44 (2-11) and your vote is the only one I have seen change since then. So that means that she is at two votes, as is Galzria.

Yeah...still not contributing much. Still lacking the free time. Still don't like that PPS and others think I am scummy because of real-life commitments and think that the case on manda is weak for that very reason.

I'm praying that while in Florida this weekend I have enough time to post my thoughts. At the very least, I should Sunday night.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 10, 2012, 07:40:32 am
The case on manda is weak because you don't have the free time to post so that explains her unwillingness to post anything of substance?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 10, 2012, 07:49:41 am
Vote Count 2-12

shark_bait (1): Young Nick
Galzria (2): Galzria, timchen
manda2014 (2): pingpongsam, Eevee
Eevee (1): shark_bait

Not Voting {1}: manda2014

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 10, 2012, 07:52:53 am
I am definitely still wanting the Galz lynch, but it seemed like no one wanted to hammer so I thought we'd better start finding new targets before the deadline creeps on us.

Although, no one wanting to hammer Galzria when he's playing that scummy is actually one hell of a scum tell.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 10, 2012, 07:59:10 am
I am definitely still wanting the Galz lynch, but it seemed like no one wanted to hammer so I thought we'd better start finding new targets before the deadline creeps on us.

Although, no one wanting to hammer Galzria when he's playing that scummy is actually one hell of a scum tell.

Agreed, I could be convinced to hammer Galz on Monday. I'm really anxious to see the lurkers actually give us something but I suspect we will get more of the same.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 10, 2012, 01:14:14 pm
I'll express my concern here:

I believe Galz is mafia. Some of his response gives me a town feeling, but they are not consistent-- that is, I cannot find consistency for his logic level and his play and his unwillingness to read through my posts if he is town.

Problem is, if he flipped town (however improbable that is), I am really at a loss. Shall I really believe his case on eevee? There actually are some valid concerns. Or shall I believe PPS's evaluation that there are no scum on Galz's wagon (that is, eevee is not scum?)

One thing that does not help the situation is the lurkiness of YN, sharky, and manda. If Galz is scum as I anticipated, there has to be at least two townies among them.

Word for the two townies: your lurkiness helps the mafia tremendously. This is because Galzria's partner right now is having a hard time. Galzria is self-voting. What should his partner say? Supporting or busing can all be fatal if he (she) is not faking it right. The easiest way to play for his partner is to semi-lurk. But that play is not going to work if you come in and say more.

The lurkiness also does not help Galzria. Even if he is town, we may be forced to lynch him (not that I won't be happy about it, but just to point this out) just because we do not have enough case on other people.

eevee, I'd like to hear from you more about your change-of-mind on Manda.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 10, 2012, 10:38:24 pm
@tim

tomorrow, sleep to clear my head now  :)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 11, 2012, 02:09:36 am
Alive. Finally at a computer and alive. Going to read as much as I can tomorrow. I never even got on the computer to see Galzria at L-1 while he was there!

The case on manda is weak because you don't have the free time to post so that explains her unwillingness to post anything of substance?

Yes. I don't have free time to post. manda has not posted much either. I trust that this is not an unwillingness to post anything of substance, as you suggest, but rather an inability. It might be mafia play, but it very well might be real-life commitments. Why gun for her when apparently there are many out here who are willing to vote for Galzria? I'm not saying I am willing; I haven't read all of the game, so I am not really ready to vote for anyone, and speaking of that, Unvote. But, how could anyone in their right minds vote for manda when they are already considering voting for Galzria? It baffles me. One person you have a case on due to their play, the other might be scummy because they haven't been active.

Come on here, it's a newbie-friendly game. This means you have to understand that many of us realized this was a big investment of time, but not how big of an investment in time. And to point it out with such sass, too...Sheesh
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 11, 2012, 02:50:50 am
@YN: I have two posts which I think summarize my argument against Galzria pretty well. Not sure whether you are through them or not, but if not you might want to start from there (and ignore the preceding posts for now). Then the later arguments might be of interest too (in which I was confused again.)

#1077 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3411.msg81028#msg81028) and #1079 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3411.msg81041#msg81041)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 11, 2012, 11:21:08 am
@YN: I have two posts which I think summarize my argument against Galzria pretty well. Not sure whether you are through them or not, but if not you might want to start from there (and ignore the preceding posts for now). Then the later arguments might be of interest too (in which I was confused again.)

#1077 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3411.msg81028#msg81028) and #1079 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3411.msg81041#msg81041)

Well, I appreciate this, but for objectivity's sake, I intend on reading each post by itself and not skipping to the timchen summaries. Intentional or not, they are probably slightly biased in your favor.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 11, 2012, 11:24:47 am
Just a heads up, I am going switch my vote back to Galzria if any of you guys not voting for him realize he is the man to lynch today.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 11, 2012, 11:29:17 am
If it comes down to it and we need to lynch, I could be convinced to vote Galz. I still think he's town, but I don't know that we're going to get anywhere if we don't lynch eiiiither him or timchen and Galz seems more likely.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 11, 2012, 12:27:40 pm
I am not up to date, but are there not currently zero effective votes on Galzria? He has two - his own and timchen's. He controls both of these votes, so... as soon as he feels threatened by a lynch, he removes both. That means four of six would have to be convinced to lynch him, compared to two of six for anyone else.

What a headache.

And I actually think I may be able to catch up to most of it today! Some leisure time at the beach with an iPad full of the first 40-odd pages of talk. Maybe I can begin to contribute something of substance to the game!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 11, 2012, 12:31:53 pm
as soon as he feels threatened by a lynch, he removes both

The only reason he wasn't lynched is because I wouldn't hammer him and you, SB and manda weren't around to decide.

Eevee got bored and moved over to the manda wagon.

Galzria has specified that his lynch is informative and removes the timchen deadlock situation. While I agree with the premise I'm not real inclined to lynch someone I'm almost certain is town. His play isn't scum play.

All that is to say, he's not pulling the vote because of feeling threatened. He might pull the vote if one of you lurkers ever posted enough to show the rest of the guys how scummy you actually are.

All that said, Eevee and I both have stated that we'd lynch Galzria just to progress the game only Town seems to be playing around here. Manda concurred, so I'd say the threat to Galzria is real as hell.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 11, 2012, 02:08:15 pm
Uh I forgot timchen asked me why I changed my mind about manda.

First of all, the town read I previously had on her was that she started day 2 with accusing me of being mafia. I just thought that would be a weird weird thing to do for mafia because I assumed I looked very towny to everyone (and usually mafia wants to buddy up the guys everyone thinks are town, not accuse them). Well, it seems that was a wrong assumption (and other people actually found me scummy too), which in turn nullifies the town tell accusing me (imo) was. So, the initial reason I had for thinking manda is likely town is for the most part gone.

On top of that, she has played insanely scummy today. When timchen and Galzria had their spat, I took a clear side. PPS commented on it some. She didnt say anything. When I called her out on it, saying "you know not helping town is pretty scummy, care to weigh in?", her answer was "I'm town, I dont need to defend myself".

If it comes down to it and we need to lynch, I could be convinced to vote Galz. I still think he's town, but I don't know that we're going to get anywhere if we don't lynch eiiiither him or timchen and Galz seems more likely.
This makes me think she likely isnt a scum pair with Galz though, so I now need to decide which of the two I find scummier. And in all honesty, mandas play today is making me lean towards her after all. Galzria has looked townier recently, manda has not done a single pro-town thing today.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 11, 2012, 02:43:15 pm
On top of that, she has played insanely scummy today. When timchen and Galzria had their spat, I took a clear side. PPS commented on it some. She didnt say anything. When I called her out on it, saying "you know not helping town is pretty scummy, care to weigh in?", her answer was "I'm town, I dont need to defend myself".
This is not what I perceived. I think whenever she weighed in between me and Galzria, however short her response was, she was on Galzria's side. I think you can verify this going back to see her posts. There are not that many anyway.

And therefore, what you quoted there reads like a (slightly) bus for me.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 11, 2012, 02:56:19 pm
manda, you think timchen and galzria are both "almost definitely" town? because I know I'm town, so if you are town and correct about those two, that only leaves shark_bait, PPS and Young Nick, two of them three have to be mafia then?

This will only be useful if you die and flip town (and only to me and those who believe I'm town obviously).

That was about the most useful thing I got from rereading manda. I still think she is scummy. Most of the mafia pairs I can think of have one thing in common. Manda.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 11, 2012, 02:57:46 pm
Most of the mafia pairs I can think of have one thing in common. Manda.

This is where I've been coming from for a while.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 11, 2012, 02:59:27 pm
Most of the mafia pairs I can think of have one thing in common. Manda.

This is where I've been coming from for a while.
Ah, agreement!

Others, some comments?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 11, 2012, 03:03:31 pm
I do agree with that to some extent.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 11, 2012, 03:10:12 pm
So do we vote manda over Galz then?  I know that you, tc, want Galz gone and feel that a mislynch on anyone other than him is game.  So do we take the risk on manda? 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 11, 2012, 03:14:15 pm
manda, you think timchen and galzria are both "almost definitely" town? because I know I'm town, so if you are town and correct about those two, that only leaves shark_bait, PPS and Young Nick, two of them three have to be mafia then?

I'm pretty sure timchen and galz are both town. I'll be surprised if one of them flips scum. You "know" you're town but I can't be certain. By your reasoning, yes, two out of those three have to be mafia. From where I stand, 2 out of sharky, pps, young nick, and you have to be scum. It's a bit better odds.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 11, 2012, 03:15:58 pm
The whole tim/galz conflict thing was craaaazy, but since it's essentially all that has happened d2, I don't think we'll learn much of anything from wagons, last words of the dead, etc., unless we lynch one of them. If you feel like you need to lynch me afterwards you can, obviously, but that will be the end of the game. I'm definitely, DEFINITELY town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 11, 2012, 03:16:59 pm
I will stick my vote on Galzria (unless he instructs me otherwise.) But I am ok (not that I can do anything about it either) if you guys want to lynch manda instead.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 11, 2012, 06:21:59 pm
Man, this is some dense stuff. Reading on an iPad is difficult for me, especially without wifi and post numbers (I had to read the print version). I am up to timchen's first series of red alerts, in which he summarizes Galzria's arguments against him. I have some thoughts about a lot of people until then. But they are not updated.  I am a slow reader and this is dense, exhaustive reading. I read for close to two hours and barely felt like I made a dent in the material.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 11, 2012, 06:22:59 pm
So I still have ~6 pages to read. Hooray!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 11, 2012, 06:25:01 pm
Man, this is some dense stuff. Reading on an iPad is difficult for me, especially without wifi and post numbers (I had to read the print version). I am up to timchen's first series of red alerts, in which he summarizes Galzria's arguments against him. I have some thoughts about a lot of people until then. But they are not updated.  I am a slow reader and this is dense, exhaustive reading. I read for close to two hours and barely felt like I made a dent in the material.
Outdated reads can be useful too. Its not like peoples aligments have changed in the last 6 pages. :)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 11, 2012, 07:13:55 pm
I'm just grateful someone is being arsed to actually read/play the game.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 11, 2012, 07:22:22 pm
Well, I will post them when I am caught up. And I will note which were reads in the past and which still stand. Luckily I took notes so my previous thoughts will not be forgotten. I'll start with one thing: reading timchen v. Galzria is quite a hassle. There is a lot to read, and you can't read it just once. But I have a hard time thinking that timchen's alleged fake-claim was that. I am more of the belief that it was just piss-poor town play. Not cop-town play, but VT-town play. Honestly, if he claimed d3 to be cop, I wouldn't believe him and I trust no one else would either. The alleged bread-crumb was too obvious. He was trying to say he had a secret reason. He later explained said reason. He was not claiming, not legit-claiming, not fake-claiming. He was doing exactly as he said he was.

This is not to say I find him town, and I will get to those reasons for thinking otherwise later. It is just my thoughts on that specific topic.

PS: I am not withholding secret reasons that I find timchen to be scummy. That would be too ironic. It is just that I actually need to read everything before posting too much.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 11, 2012, 09:10:03 pm
We need to find a consensus between manda and Galzria today! Nolynch is not an acceptable outcone here.

Personally, I dont even care. I'm fine with either of them, they seem equal in information value and scumminess to me. Might even be a scum pair, which would explain why it's so hard to get either lynched. :)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 11, 2012, 09:57:12 pm
Vote Count 2-13

Galzria (2): Galzria, timchen
manda2014 (2): pingpongsam, Eevee
Eevee (1): shark_bait

Not Voting {2}: manda2014, Young Nick

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 11, 2012, 10:03:58 pm
I see two paths.

Galzchen, would you be fine with a manda lynch? If your dual vote moves there, it's done.
PPS, if you move your vote to Galria, I can hammer him.

wouldnt mind manda, nick or sharky jumping to rescue either.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 11, 2012, 10:23:33 pm
Even though I think a Galz lynch is probably the only way out of today, I really hate the idea of lynching someone I think is town. I'm tempted to say we should wait until a little bit closer to the deadline, but I'm not sure if much else can happen between now and then other then rehashing of the same discussion. If nothing else gets accomplished between now and then, I'll vote Galz tomorrow night.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 11, 2012, 10:26:08 pm
I'm sorry manda, it's actually super unfair of me to ask you you to vote for someone you think is town or be lynched yourself. But cant help it, both you and Galzria look too scummy to me.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 12, 2012, 06:20:16 pm
Through #1218. I get home and in front of a computer tonight. Here is some food for thoughtvsince it's been silent today: Timchen looks scummy to me for two reasons.
A. He wasvgunning for galzria since the start of day two.
B. His initial logic for clearing eevee is preposterous. No consideration of sb and autodimissal of pps.

Longer post later. Sorry for iPad related typos.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 12, 2012, 07:42:59 pm
Oh God. I can just answer you this. No need for a longer post.

A. Galzria from the start of d2? In a sense yes. Thing is, I believe there is scum among the 4 early frisk-wagoner. It just felt too strange for me for the 2 scum to stay completely away from the wagon of a townie for that long. I could only choose between Galzria and PPS, and I found Galzria scummier.

But after he accused and insisted me pairing with eevee with faulty reasonings, I cannot find other explanation for his play except he is scum. And that is why I was gunning him like forever.

I dunno why you thing gunning him throughout is scummy. Maybe you think as a townie I shouldn't be that sure. But I already gave you my reasons. I believe my reason is sound enough. If you think I am scum and was fabricating those stuff up, please tell me where my arguments went wrong.

B. Have I not explained why I didn't consider sb in that argument? He is just not there until the last minute. In my theory it does not make any proper sense for a scum jumping on the wagon in the last minute (probably hour in reality) while the other has been shouting not to vote for frisk for a long time. And about PPS, I admitted straight that I do not currently think that he is scum (but that can be a potential pitfall of the argument.)

But I think the most important thing to notice is, that is just an argument and a probabilistic statement. I do not require you to believe it. (Unlike my case on Galzria which if you don't buy I would like you to point out where my logical error is.) So the only scummy reason for me to fabricate this argument is that me and eevee are the scummy pair.

Do you buy this pairing? Do scum just pair up themselves together to lynch a random townie (Galz in this case) like this? I agree it is possible that one of us is scum. But if that is the case, my logic for clearing eevee cannot be a reason to support either him or me is scum. (As a scum why do I have to lie to save a townie.)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 13, 2012, 12:43:30 am
I understand why you gun for him after your spat. Before this though, you say that you focus on other people with the intention of seeing how Galzria responds. This seems like you are setting him up for failure and that you aren't giving other people their proper attention. (This is all pre-fight, of course.)

And I understand your logic for S_B and PPS, but that still doesn't make it look any less scummy. I don't buy it. Your arguments for these, unlike your stuff against Galzria (for the most part), do not make much sense and do not hold under scrutiny. What I read is that you are being unfair to Galzria and Eevee, marking them as scum and town, respectively, for poor reasons.

Or, I should say, in the Galzria case, gunning for him for poor reasons before the whole dispute.

It makes you look very scummy. You also do a good job of over-writing the issue. I doubt you are intentionally trying to do this, but it is just as bad as confusing people, something that you accuse Galzria of doing.

----

Now I find Galzria's lack of posting at times (like immediately prior to the fight) to be very suspicious and am not a huge fan of him switching between you, Eevee, and manda, but I honestly would say he has given me a better town vibe than you have. And both of you look scummier than manda and Eevee in this whole dispute.

I actually find PPS to be the agitator more so than Eevee or manda, which is interesting, because IIRC he accuses them two of fulfilling the very same role.

Obviously I doubt both timchen and Galzria are mafia, but I would be most surprised if neither of them were. I think manda should be considered equal to S_B in scumminess due to their play styles. I recognize that I could fall in that category, as well, but now I can and will contribute, what with being all caught up and in DC again.

I will refer to my notes and post anything interesting from them later tonight or sometime tomorrow.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 13, 2012, 01:01:43 am
I understand why you gun for him after your spat. Before this though, you say that you focus on other people with the intention of seeing how Galzria responds. This seems like you are setting him up for failure and that you aren't giving other people their proper attention. (This is all pre-fight, of course.)
You can say that I am trying to set him up for failure, but of course, he can only fail if he is scum!
I am not other people proper attention (PPS, sharky so to speak?) because I have higher priorities in finding mafia between you and Manda. Galzria was just a side purpose in the beginning, but somehow in the end we he took over you two. I didn't really expect that from the start.

And I understand your logic for S_B and PPS, but that still doesn't make it look any less scummy. I don't buy it. Your arguments for these, unlike your stuff against Galzria (for the most part), do not make much sense and do not hold under scrutiny. What I read is that you are being unfair to Galzria and Eevee, marking them as scum and town, respectively, for poor reasons.

Or, I should say, in the Galzria case, gunning for him for poor reasons before the whole dispute.
As I said the eevee-town-theory is just an argument. It did not mean I was over with eevee from then on. It just meant I felt comfortable to find one scum among you and manda first. And I have said several times I am entirely okay if people don't buy that. By the argument itself I think it is fair to say it does not make me any scummier unless I am pairing with eevee.

I have also clarified this a few times. I am NOT gunning for galzria in the beginning. The eevee argument does not point at Galzria as a specific scum. It does however show I suspect Galzria more than PPS, which was something I wanted to hide at that time. And I only went on Galzria when somehow his response to the reveal of my eevee theory was beyond my expectation of a townie.

Now I find Galzria's lack of posting at times (like immediately prior to the fight) to be very suspicious and am not a huge fan of him switching between you, Eevee, and manda, but I honestly would say he has given me a better town vibe than you have. And both of you look scummier than manda and Eevee in this whole dispute.
This is interesting... because I seem to remember that you have said otherwise. What changed your thoughts?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 13, 2012, 02:03:44 am
I have also clarified this a few times. I am NOT gunning for galzria in the beginning. The eevee argument does not point at Galzria as a specific scum. It does however show I suspect Galzria more than PPS, which was something I wanted to hide at that time. And I only went on Galzria when somehow his response to the reveal of my eevee theory was beyond my expectation of a townie.

Now I find Galzria's lack of posting at times (like immediately prior to the fight) to be very suspicious and am not a huge fan of him switching between you, Eevee, and manda, but I honestly would say he has given me a better town vibe than you have. And both of you look scummier than manda and Eevee in this whole dispute.
This is interesting... because I seem to remember that you have said otherwise. What changed your thoughts?

Regarding the first quoted section: I may be wrong, but I was under the impression that you brought up manda and myself as a way to see Galzria's response and possibly use this against him. So this is before your Eevee theory, which as stated, I dislike for other reasons. So, in a sense, you were gunning for him from the start, though this was unrelated to your case on Eevee's innocence.

As for why I changed my mind: Mainly the two reasons I have stated. They just seem like something the Mafia would plan for during the night:
"Hey, I think one of us should gun for someone right off of the bat."
"But who should you gun for? What should I do?
"I'd say you should stay back and lay low. How does me hunting for Galzria sound?"
"Good, but don't make it too obvious."
"Alright, I'll start off looking towards a few others and use his reaction against him."

Galzria, meanwhile, just seems to call out the breadcrumb. I don't find his play to be all that great, but I dislike your argument against him. It makes sense, yes, but it is very self-centered. Outside of some of his points against you, the only thing that makes him scummy is his more recent wagon-switching in order to get someone lynched. And I can justify this as trying to avoid a no-lynch. Meanwhile, I admit that it is ridiculous that it took so long for him to see your side in your argument with him, but I can see why he was so outraged. This is not to say I agreed with his stance. I merely understood how he took said stance.

So, I'll do the typical exercise: from Mafia to town: Shark_Bait, timchen, Galzria, pingpongsam, manda, Eevee, Young Nick. Shark_Bait is a bit of a separate case from you two and his should be discarded because no one seems to care. It won't help towards a lynch. My thoughts against him are not due to lurkiness but his play prior to that. As stated earlier, pingpongsam has been the enabler for your argument. I understand his play style is to spark up responses like these, but I can see it as Mafia trying to invoke chaos. manda and Eevee are relatively equal in my book. For some reason I don't have much of a read on Eevee despite his contributions throughout d2. A re-reading of some of his posts would be nice. That he really tried to reign timchen in during his emotional phase where he gave his own (timchen's) vote to Galzria is noteworthy, even if I can not yet say if that is a Mafia or town maneuver.

Some re-reading (especially of manda and Eevee) and posting of my d2 iPad observations are next on my to-do list, and hopefully I can do both before the lynch deadline.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 13, 2012, 04:26:49 am
Alright, got in late, and I'm exhausted. I know the deadline looms, but I feel that I've exhausted anything I can really say. I don't support a Manda lynch, because I'm simply not sure if she's scum or town, and if it's the latter then it's game over because Timchen will hand the win to the Mafia on day 3 by voting for me.

S_B's vote is currently on Eevee, and if there was anybody here that I would feel confident enough risking the above situation on, it would be Eevee. I absolutely think that he's scum for the reasons I've laid out previously. Which of y'all is his partner, I don't know.

Still, since I believe that we will be unable to lynch Eevee, then I fully support my own lynch today so that we can break the deadlock with Timchen, and at least provide the town a chance at recovering tomorrow. It's a really sucky situation, and it blows that the best move for a townie would be to self-vote himself to a lynch, but it seems to me to be the only logical and reasonable course . As it stands now, if we don't lynch me here, we're in Lylo, and if we do lynch me here we're in lylo... But I would rather be in lylo with a 40% to hit scum rather than 28.5% chance.

We must not no-lynch however, under any circumstances. It would leave 6 alive, meaning all 4 town would have to vote correctly together tomorrow, or else we fall to 4 left and a 2-2 split, resulting in a loss.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 13, 2012, 06:19:36 am
Still, since I believe that we will be unable to lynch Eevee

After some consideration of yours and YN's views I am not totally disinclined to lynch Eevee. That is, I'm not writing anybody entirely off the lynch list. With the timchen/Galzria double vote and YN's vote there's only 1 vote needed to put Eevee on the gallows.

I've never dismissed Sharky as a Mafia, I've just recognized that he was a worthless aim as no one else paid his play any credence. His recent sustained absence and true lurk has reinforced that he may well be Mafia for me. YN has maintained vote on him. However, I don't see his lynch as being productive for the next day's play.

While manda has given me no reason to lighten my views on her I can see that her lynch also fails to be productive for the next day's play.

While I can't argue with the logic in YN's observations on timchen I also maintain that he is Town, without a new development to the contrary I don't think I could be swayed to lynch timchen.

So, with no emphasis on who I find to be Town/Mafia but strictly my willingness to lynch in order to have the best chances of getting the right reads tomorrow:
Galzria, Eevee, timchen, Young_Nick, Shark_Bait, manda

My Mafia to Town barometer:
manda, Shark_Bait, Eevee, Young_Nick, timchen, Galzria.

So discarding the SB/manda lynches as being too uninformative the best candidate for a productive lynch I feel most likely to actually hit scum would be Eevee.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 13, 2012, 07:08:58 am
@PPS: Could I maybe convince you of his Mafia-status? All we need for a lynch would be you, me, and Galzchen. I find it would be equally as informative as a Galzria lynch, if you view both as town.

Anybody else here, including Galzria, would you be up for a timchen lynch?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 13, 2012, 08:04:12 am
Yeah, maybe I wasn't clear enough but I was saying that Eevee's not my favorite lynch but I would be willing to lynch him knowing that it would be informative and that there is the real possibility of hitting Mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 13, 2012, 09:53:45 am
Wow. I'm the next lynch target? Blaaaaarggghhh.

a) if Galzria was town, I think he would have been hammered already unless both mafia were already voting for him


It's just baffling how you lot can think I'm the best lynch target, dont even know how to defend myself.

Although, Vote: shark_bait is the third lynch (Galz and manda being the others) I'd be find with. And as Galzria in a very pro town manner pointed out, nolynch is just utterly idiotic here.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 13, 2012, 09:56:42 am
Vote Count 2-14

Galzria (2): Galzria, timchen
manda2014 (1): pingpongsam
Eevee (1): shark_bait
shark_bait (1): Eevee

Not Voting {2}: manda2014, Young Nick

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Monday, August 13, at 8:00 p.m. forum time (EDT) TEN HOURS TILL DEADLINE
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 13, 2012, 10:02:50 am
No wait, seeing the vote count it should obviously be Vote:Galzria. L-1 guys, 10 hours to go.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: timchen on August 13, 2012, 10:22:46 am
@YN: your conspiracy theory is just not really what a mafia will do. The problem is that the mafia cannot be sure what the response will be. And specifically, why do the mafia want to target Galzria specifically anyway? That only restricts themselves. Say if that was indeed the plan and Galzria did not respond as what he did, what should the mafia do? Forcing a nonexistent case on Galzria is suicide.

On the first thing, I have explained several times what my intention was, but you certainly have the right to view the events in any way you like. I guess I have to say so be it. But just keep one objective fact in mind: even if I decided to gun for Galzria in the beginning, it is because that I believe there has to be one scum between him and PPS (Because I know I am not scum); and I only target him exclusively after his insistence on his faulty theory on me. I really do not see anything wrong with this.

That being said, you can take your own choice. Lynching me is better than lynching manda and find her town; that way Galzria just wins instantly. Just promise me you'll go after Galzria after I flipped. (But this way I have no chance to know whether I am wrong against Galzria, unfortunately before the game ends.)

Guys, here's my take. I am only willing to lynch Galzria, me, or Manda. I still think Galzria is scum and I cannot imagine Galzria partners with eevee or PPS or YN (with YN this will just be too smart! Come out and support his partner only on the last day!). I will keep my promise so if Galzria is scum and we mislynch a townie which is not me then we instantly lose. If insisted on Manda is the one I am willing to bet on the to have a reasonable chance to be scum.

But my vote still goes where Galzria instructs me to vote.



Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 13, 2012, 11:20:30 am
This wagon sat here long enough 2 days ago. There's nothing more to discuss.

I don't see this thing moving to another target in the time frame we have.

I've already outlined my reasons, I think he may well flip town but I also think we get enough information to hit scum tomorrow.
That no one else will press the button makes me think Galzria may be scum anyhow.

My 1st hammer, ever:
Vote: Galzria
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 13, 2012, 11:22:07 am
And I am indeed town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 13, 2012, 11:34:35 am
Galzria has been lynched.  He was a Vanilla Townie.  Flavor and final votecount to be posted this evening.

Night 2 has begun.  Commands are due in 48 hours, by Wednesday, August 15, at 11:30 a.m. EDT.  If I receive all commands before the deadline, Day 3 may begin early.

This thread is now LOCKED.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (NIGHT 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 15, 2012, 06:01:20 am
Day 2 final votecount below.  Day 3 starting post coming up momentarily.

Vote Count 2-15

Galzria (4): Galzria, timchen, Eevee, pingpongsam
Eevee (1): shark_bait

Not Voting {2}: manda2014, Young Nick

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Galzria has been lynched.  He was a Town Vanilla.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (NIGHT 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 15, 2012, 06:08:22 am
Five noseless individuals woke from a collective shared nightmare.  It was Galzria, alternately screaming and laughing as he helped timchen and two others tear out his own entrails.  Strangling a man to death with his own intestines had proved rather more difficult - and slimy - than any of them had anticipated.

At least they had nice weather today.  The sun was shining, the birds were singing, the dogs were having a nice snack of putrefied corpses.  All was right with the world.

Wait, corpses plural?

Sure enough, the local Hunting Party had let their dogs run wild after a successful drunken hunt, and the dogs had found, not just Galzria's ruined husk, but that of a newly deceased noseless.  Turning the body over, the remaining five gasped at his identity.

timchen has been slain.  He was a Town Vanilla.

Day 3 Start!

Not Voting {5}:
Eevee, Young Nick, manda2014, shark_bait, pingpongsam

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

Lynch deadline: Wednesday, August 29, at 12:00 noon EDT

This thread is now UNLOCKED.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 15, 2012, 06:23:57 am
Holy cow, a Town timchen surviving the night would be the easy lynch target for pushing the Galzria wagon so hard yesterday.

The only logic I see in this pair of kills is in removing 1 each from the D1 on/off wagon.

Maybe the meta-game here is to kill off the vocal players? So far, it seems like manda, Sharky and to some degree, YN are on vacation. It feels as if Town has been actively pursuing Town as Mafia has sat in the shadows and watched.

Maybe Mafia smelled a timchen honeypot? I was definitely going to be heavily scrutinizing any early voters on him today.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 15, 2012, 07:03:37 am
I assume honeypot means someone whose lynch would be too obviously a good idea? As in, it would be so obvious to lynch timchen that only a member of the Mafia would suggest to do it at the start of d3.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 15, 2012, 07:04:52 am
And I hope that you guys could tell from my posts on Sunday night that I back, literally and figuratively. I have read everything and am in DC and thus can contribute much more than in the last week of d2.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 15, 2012, 08:43:13 am
I assume honeypot means someone whose lynch would be too obviously a good idea? As in, it would be so obvious to lynch timchen that only a member of the Mafia would suggest to do it at the start of d3.

I wouldn't say "only" but his lynch was so attractive that I'd expect Mafia not to resist themselves. It appears to me they gave up an easy end-game lynch, though. I am currently pondering why that might be.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 15, 2012, 10:50:35 am
Okay, beginning of the day feelings, from towniest to scummiest:
Young Nick > pingpongsam* > shark_bait > manda

shark_bait's posted somewhere that laptop died, and he that he won't be able to participate much at the moment. In case that goes on for this entire day, we have to be able to reach majority without him. Luckily I think there is a good chance he is mafia, so him not voting might even help town.
My feelings on manda have not changed, I think she would be our best lynch. Young Nick is giving me a town vibe, PPS is too but maybe a tad less so. I'd actually be up for a shark_bait lynch too, he won't be able to talk so he can't help us much if he is town (not being talkative is one thing but actually losing his vote is huuuge).

About Galzria's wagon yesterday: timchen and Galzria are dead (and town), I very well understand why PPS voted for him (town timchen and town Galz and town Eevee did too), he did seem scummy and we kind of needed to get out from the ridiculous situation timchen got us into. Boy will I haunt him for saying "I'm 100% sure Galzria is scum"..

Oh, and we might still have a power role too! If we have a cop who knows something, don't come out just yet but wait if you can steer the town into the correct lynch without claiming. If we have a doctor, obviously no claiming then.

*Table tennis is super fun btw! I totally forgot what PPS stood for.


But yeah, thoughts? I want manda or shark_bait lynched, I'd need some heavy convincing to vote for PPS or Young Nick.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 15, 2012, 11:21:23 am
I've been up for a manda lynch and the recent events haven't done anything to dispel my notions on her.

I definitely want to hear a weigh in from everyone before I see votes going up though. We are at a 3 vote LyLo so let's not get too hasty.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 15, 2012, 12:22:45 pm
Actually, I don't think timchen would have been an "obvious" lynch target for today. Sure,  there would be some suspicion because he was pushing the wagon so hard, but it seemed like the general consensus was that he was playing so crazy that he MUST be town.

As far as lynching me goes, I get why you guys think I'm an obvious lynch target, but keep in mind that we're in lylo, so if/when you lynch me and I flip town (which I will), we lose.


As a side note, I won't be able to get to a computer for most of Friday and Saturday because I'll be moving.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 15, 2012, 12:56:36 pm
Actually, I don't think timchen would have been an "obvious" lynch target for today. Sure,  there would be some suspicion because he was pushing the wagon so hard, but it seemed like the general consensus was that he was playing so crazy that he MUST be town.

As far as lynching me goes, I get why you guys think I'm an obvious lynch target, but keep in mind that we're in lylo, so if/when you lynch me and I flip town (which I will), we lose.


As a side note, I won't be able to get to a computer for most of Friday and Saturday because I'll be moving.
Who do you suspect? 5 of us, 2 of us mafia.

Btw, everytime manda posts, I am more and more convinced she is scum.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 15, 2012, 01:00:13 pm
Okay, so I posted this in MIX, but my computer is on the fritz,  I don't know how reliable I will be.  I will try to make sure that I can see this game through the end.  First thoughts for today.  NO ONE VOTE!!!!!!!!  If you vote wrong, both mafia could jump up and lynch winning them the game.  Honestly, I'm quite surprised on the tc nightkill.  After all he did yesterday, he would have been a very easy lynch today. 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 15, 2012, 01:06:31 pm
Good point sharkie. Pointing that out is also a town tell to me.
FoS for me, PPS and manda for posting without reminding everyone of that!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 15, 2012, 01:07:44 pm
Actually, I don't think timchen would have been an "obvious" lynch target for today. Sure,  there would be some suspicion because he was pushing the wagon so hard, but it seemed like the general consensus was that he was playing so crazy that he MUST be town.

As far as lynching me goes, I get why you guys think I'm an obvious lynch target, but keep in mind that we're in lylo, so if/when you lynch me and I flip town (which I will), we lose.


As a side note, I won't be able to get to a computer for most of Friday and Saturday because I'll be moving.
Who do you suspect? 5 of us, 2 of us mafia.

Btw, everytime manda posts, I am more and more convinced she is scum.

I'm at work right now, but I'll post a scumminess--townieness assessment as soon as I get home.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 15, 2012, 04:38:43 pm
So I guess it's kind of frustrating that due to C_F's and manda's RL situations no voting is going to occur to Sunday at earliest. I guess there will be lots of talk with no action until then.

Right now I would like to re-read all of our d2 posts. Considering that the two people who probably contributed ~1/2 of d2 posts are gone, this shouldn't be impossible.

One thing to consider: If there is a vote and no one goes to double-hammer that means one of two things:
A) The vote is against a member of the Mafia.
B) The vote was made by a member of the Mafia.

So do not assume that just because there was no double-hammer that we are in the clear.
I still find S_B to be scummiest. After that PPS. Then manda. Eevee looks most like town to me of everyone, I guess. Honestly, I would most want to lynch S_B, after that, it is a wash.

Considering me and manda have stated that we are both reluctant to throw our vote around without certainty, and that we are at lylo, something tells me we won't be lynching until the 29th! :D
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 15, 2012, 04:39:24 pm
NO ONE VOTE!!!!!!!! 

Vote: Young Nick
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 15, 2012, 04:39:32 pm
Unvote
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 15, 2012, 04:40:26 pm
I do what I want! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZLVi4v7lSM)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 15, 2012, 09:53:34 pm
Bump?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 15, 2012, 11:21:52 pm
Nick, you still look very towny to me. Why so little suspicion on manda? I would be fine with a shark_bait lynch too, but I'm genuinely interested because we need to get this decision right.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 16, 2012, 12:07:08 am
Well, it seems she was punished due to lurking. Now, Shark_Bait and I had done our fair share of lurking, as well, especially in d2. We all had reasonable excuses for this. Yet manda caught more flak than either of us.

Having said that, there are her actual posts to analyze. People seem to think that her contributions are scummy. I haven't seen that much to imply that she is Mafia from her comments, but for what it's worth, I would be best off if I were to read some of her analysis from other games. Her play style appears to be town-oriented to me, even if it is not all that helpful towards town.

I would like to hear why others are so intent on lynching her other than lurking. I probably could be convinced to lynch anyone at this point if there is a proper and decent argument against them.

So, would you care to point me towards a few posts of hers that look particularly bad, Eevee?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 16, 2012, 12:08:27 am
Also, I see that manda and shark_bait are both online. I know they are both on LA so I would love for them to chime in while they can!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 16, 2012, 12:15:21 am
Like every single post of her screams scum to me? The "I'm town I don't have to defend myself" earlier, her constant not helping town (has she contributed anything to scumhunting?), everythinggggg. Mostly it's just intuition I don't know how to explain, you seem genuine to me, PPS seems trustworthy to an extent, shark_bait doesn't give a good vibe and manda gives an outright bad vibe. Don't know how to explain it. :/
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 16, 2012, 12:22:03 am
Use all of your strength and might to summon your inner timchen! This will allow you to post ridiculously long responses that refer to specific quotes.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 16, 2012, 12:36:40 am
Eevee, would you be able to describe this "bad vibe" you are getting from me? 

@YN, I've been playing on iso, figured I'd try to end with a bang on the last night.  Also. :P (that's for your vote and then unvote)

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 16, 2012, 12:49:21 am
Eevee, would you be able to describe this "bad vibe" you are getting from me? 

@YN, I've been playing on iso, figured I'd try to end with a bang on the last night.  Also. :P (that's for your vote and then unvote)
It's just.. nothing you do seems particularly townie. And your voting history isn't all that impressive (hammered town Frisk, had your vote parked on town me all yesterday) although I don't consider that too much of a scumtell. But yeah, mostly you could have given me a town vibe by now, and you haven't.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 16, 2012, 12:54:34 am
I also didn't hammer galz (or even vote for him).... no one but you can make a claim about the certainty of my vote on you and even then, we can't believe you with %100 certainty.  So I don't see how your claim about my vote on you has any validity to it to anyone but yourself. 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 16, 2012, 01:22:19 am
I also didn't hammer galz (or even vote for him).... no one but you can make a claim about the certainty of my vote on you and even then, we can't believe you with %100 certainty.  So I don't see how your claim about my vote on you has any validity to it to anyone but yourself.
hence why it's one of my reasons for thinking you are scum here. and uh, well, my opinions are going to matter for people who trust me to be town too. and if i die at night, i've putten it out there for the rest of the town to remember.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 16, 2012, 01:29:30 am
Like every single post of her screams scum to me? The "I'm town I don't have to defend myself" earlier, her constant not helping town (has she contributed anything to scumhunting?), everythinggggg. Mostly it's just intuition I don't know how to explain, you seem genuine to me, PPS seems trustworthy to an extent, shark_bait doesn't give a good vibe and manda gives an outright bad vibe. Don't know how to explain it. :/

It seems like you think me saying "I'm town I don't have to defend myself"="I don't want to defend myself." What I'm TRYING to say is that if someone is truly town, they don't really NEED to defend themselves, because saving their own necks isn't the point, the town as a whole has to be saved. Sometimes a townie has to be willing to sacrifice themselves if that's what it comes down to, and the reason I didn't spend much time defending myself d2 (or d1 for that matter) was that I didn't think that would actually do the town much good. Scum, on the other hand, can't afford to lose anyone, so they HAVE to defend themselves or lose. I believe I stated something similar to this d1 in reference to someone else not defending themselves.

Since we're in lylo, though, it's a different story. Lynch me, and town loses, guaranteed. So I'll try to be better about answering the accusations against me today, although it seems like the only accusation that's been put forth is lurking, which I've tried to explain previously (RL stuff), and the "I'm town I don't have to defend myself" which I've tried to explain better above.

Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 16, 2012, 01:30:28 am
Oh and as for scumhunting, d2 was so much the Galz/timchen madness that I don't recall much scumhunting happening at all...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 16, 2012, 01:31:16 am
I also didn't hammer galz (or even vote for him).... no one but you can make a claim about the certainty of my vote on you and even then, we can't believe you with %100 certainty.  So I don't see how your claim about my vote on you has any validity to it to anyone but yourself.
hence why it's one of my reasons for thinking you are scum here. and uh, well, my opinions are going to matter for people who trust me to be town too. and if i die at night, i've putten it out there for the rest of the town to remember.

If we don't lynch scum, it doesn't matter who dies at night. We lose...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 16, 2012, 02:01:16 am
I also didn't hammer galz (or even vote for him).... no one but you can make a claim about the certainty of my vote on you and even then, we can't believe you with %100 certainty.  So I don't see how your claim about my vote on you has any validity to it to anyone but yourself.
hence why it's one of my reasons for thinking you are scum here. and uh, well, my opinions are going to matter for people who trust me to be town too. and if i die at night, i've putten it out there for the rest of the town to remember.

If we don't lynch scum, it doesn't matter who dies at night. We lose...
what if we lynch you and sharkie kills me at night? its important to give pps and nick the information.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 16, 2012, 02:21:04 am
Eevee, you sound very confident. Are you actually already ready to vote for manda? This early into d3? Shocking, in my opinion.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 16, 2012, 02:38:43 am
Eevee, you sound very confident. Are you actually already ready to vote for manda? This early into d3? Shocking, in my opinion.
No, I'm not sure. Yes, I'm quite confident. If she is town, town can blame this loss on me, but given how little content people posted yesterday, I don't think my opinion of her is going to change. Obviously I'm not voting yet, who knows what could happen still!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 16, 2012, 02:40:12 am
I also didn't hammer galz (or even vote for him).... no one but you can make a claim about the certainty of my vote on you and even then, we can't believe you with %100 certainty.  So I don't see how your claim about my vote on you has any validity to it to anyone but yourself.
hence why it's one of my reasons for thinking you are scum here. and uh, well, my opinions are going to matter for people who trust me to be town too. and if i die at night, i've putten it out there for the rest of the town to remember.

If we don't lynch scum, it doesn't matter who dies at night. We lose...
what if we lynch you and sharkie kills me at night? its important to give pps and nick the information.

Lynch me and the game's over. Everything becomes irrelevant :P
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 16, 2012, 03:15:13 am
I also didn't hammer galz (or even vote for him).... no one but you can make a claim about the certainty of my vote on you and even then, we can't believe you with %100 certainty.  So I don't see how your claim about my vote on you has any validity to it to anyone but yourself.
hence why it's one of my reasons for thinking you are scum here. and uh, well, my opinions are going to matter for people who trust me to be town too. and if i die at night, i've putten it out there for the rest of the town to remember.

If we don't lynch scum, it doesn't matter who dies at night. We lose...
what if we lynch you and sharkie kills me at night? its important to give pps and nick the information.

Lynch me and the game's over. Everything becomes irrelevant :P

...says every single person still alive in this game of Mafia. :D
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 16, 2012, 06:48:18 am
Wow, I'm not used to getting up in the morning and actually getting to read posts from SB and manda.

I'm still convinced manda is scum. Her posts are just as easily Mafia responses as they are Town responses. At no point has manda made any real effort to put down any analysis. Her votes have been non-committal and her absences have seemed eerily timed for convenience to scum. Her only look at D2 was that Galzria/timchen battle was a ball of confusion. It was confusing mostly because they were left to sort things out for themselves, there was no other focus, really. This was due largely to the fact that several of the game's players were absent and when they did appear they just claimed that there was too much reading to do and in manda's case once the reading was done yet another non-committal position was taken.

Well, it's D3 and now the opportunities to lurk in the shadows and let Town tear themselves to pieces are thin. Instead of picking up the pace and stepping up to the plate to put some analysis on the table she seems content to keep pushing the "I'm Town leave me alone" and "You guys figure it out for yourself" wagon. Thank you for the Captain Obvious statement that if we hit the wrong person it's curtains for Town. Tell me why you're not the right lynch with more than that silly fear stick. Tell me who you think is the best scum target with some logic.

I started warming up to the idea that scum was not on the Frisk wagon somewhere mid-D2. I don't have the warm fuzzies about SB but I could see YN as the devious scum partner to manda better than SB. SB is arguably an easier D3 lynch than timchen which explains why he was left alive last night. YN has kept him on the table since D1 which doesn't necessarily indicate scum but does support a YN/manda pair for all 3 days. That's the thing, I've got my uncertainties a plenty on YN, Eevee and SB. Of those 3 Eevee feels the most like Town. It's a crap shoot on YN/SB but I maintain that that manda has consistently played a scum hand, a quiet reserved scum hand that has become more and more obvious as the shadows of former Townies have dropped away.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 16, 2012, 12:23:17 pm
Anyone opposed to just taking our chances and lynching manda?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 16, 2012, 12:41:07 pm
Anyone opposed to just taking our chances and lynching manda?

I've been thinking about how it works if a vote goes up on scum. On town it is obvious that Mafia will double-hammer game over. On scum it requires all 3 town to make the lynch or scum can drop the hammer and make some real distance for D4. So, who is on the wagon is not nearly as useful of information as is who dies tonight.

All that said, I'm uncomfortably hesitant but not at all opposed. I certainly want to hear a weigh in on the wagon from each remaining player before any votes go up.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 16, 2012, 02:03:23 pm
They don't have daytalk here though, which makes orchestrating a quickhammer harder. I wonder.. I'm on so much, maybe I could vote for manda and then snap unvote when someone else votes.. Just the threat of that happening.. hmm, need to think about it. I wish I was cop-confirmed town or something, so I could have just done that to trap scum without warning them first.

I take it PPS is ready to vote for manda. shark_bait and Young Nick, would you be?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 16, 2012, 05:16:06 pm
They don't have daytalk here though, which makes orchestrating a quickhammer harder. I wonder.. I'm on so much, maybe I could vote for manda and then snap unvote when someone else votes.. Just the threat of that happening.. hmm, need to think about it. I wish I was cop-confirmed town or something, so I could have just done that to trap scum without warning them first.

I take it PPS is ready to vote for manda. shark_bait and Young Nick, would you be?

Well, let me say that I am not opposed, but that I would want to read all of her d2 posts beforehand. So don't expect a vote from me tonight.

What do you mean with your last sentence of your first paragraph? How does this trap scum? You mean if they both vote but you unvote first so they are both caught on the wagon?

Anyone opposed to just taking our chances and lynching manda?

I've been thinking about how it works if a vote goes up on scum. On town it is obvious that Mafia will double-hammer game over. On scum it requires all 3 town to make the lynch or scum can drop the hammer and make some real distance for D4. So, who is on the wagon is not nearly as useful of information as is who dies tonight.

All that said, I'm uncomfortably hesitant but not at all opposed. I certainly want to hear a weigh in on the wagon from each remaining player before any votes go up.

Don't forget that a vote on town does not mean that Mafia will quick-hammer. It is very possible that a member of the Mafia takes the chance and puts in that first vote on town. The lack of a quick-hammer with have the other two town thinking that the first vote has hit Mafia and one of them will make the mistake of voting, as well. Then, the other member of Mafia hammers and it's game over.

A lack of quick-hammer action does not imply that the vote is on Mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 16, 2012, 05:17:00 pm
Anyone opposed to just taking our chances and lynching manda?

You sound so lax about it. Like it's no big deal if manda is town and we lose. Please, be cautious.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 16, 2012, 07:34:15 pm
Well, if someone made the mistake of voting for someone they had never voiced any suspicion before, we could catch scum that way. But nah, it doesn't really work.

And Nick, got any better candidates? I know I dont.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 16, 2012, 11:14:08 pm
Well, if someone made the mistake of voting for someone they had never voiced any suspicion before, we could catch scum that way. But nah, it doesn't really work.

And Nick, got any better candidates? I know I dont.

Again, based on d2 feels (aka currently unsupported), I'd prefer s_b. Make a case, a real one, against manda and then we can talk.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 17, 2012, 12:25:08 am
Well, if someone made the mistake of voting for someone they had never voiced any suspicion before, we could catch scum that way. But nah, it doesn't really work.

And Nick, got any better candidates? I know I dont.

Again, based on d2 feels (aka currently unsupported), I'd prefer s_b. Make a case, a real one, against manda and then we can talk.
Why would you prefer shark_bait? Don't get me wrong, I think he is a good candidate too (as I said, my clear 2nd), but I've laid out my case on manda, why do you think shark_bait is better? Short repeat: no real pro-town contributions (I thiink shark_bait has some), and the "I'm town I don't need to defend myself" - defense which reads "I don't know what I should do, I can't really explain my actions so I choose this" to me. I think one of my strengths in mafia is figuring out if someone's defense/behavior is genuine when facing a threat of getting lynched. The emotions I think townies usually show, are not there in manda's posts.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: manda2014 on August 17, 2012, 02:13:37 am
Well, if someone made the mistake of voting for someone they had never voiced any suspicion before, we could catch scum that way. But nah, it doesn't really work.

And Nick, got any better candidates? I know I dont.

Again, based on d2 feels (aka currently unsupported), I'd prefer s_b. Make a case, a real one, against manda and then we can talk.
Why would you prefer shark_bait? Don't get me wrong, I think he is a good candidate too (as I said, my clear 2nd), but I've laid out my case on manda, why do you think shark_bait is better? Short repeat: no real pro-town contributions (I thiink shark_bait has some), and the "I'm town I don't need to defend myself" - defense which reads "I don't know what I should do, I can't really explain my actions so I choose this" to me. I think one of my strengths in mafia is figuring out if someone's defense/behavior is genuine when facing a threat of getting lynched. The emotions I think townies usually show, are not there in manda's posts.

...What emotions are those? The way I see it, emotion is probably not a good response to anything in a mafia game.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 17, 2012, 07:18:32 am
In my experience and my observation a townie faced with lynch generally expresses some degree of anger or outrage. Mafia typically expresses resignation. This becomes more and more true the as as end-game condition approaches.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 17, 2012, 11:49:18 am
yeah, townies either apologize if they feel they've played bad and "deserve it", or they get upset and fight if they feel the suspicion is not justified. Manda's reaction reads "I knew this was coming but I hope it goes away if I just avoid the issue."
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 17, 2012, 03:10:48 pm
@Eevee, manda would be on my list of people I could lynch (but in all honesty, I could be convinced to lynch anyone but myself today). 

However, I'd rather not rush today lynch decision.  Since this is lylo, we want to make a good decision and not do anything rash.  Obviously, anyone can respond to lynching with the "If you lynch me we lose" talk today due to lylo.  I think it is therefore imperative that those responses don't hold any merit with us when deciding a lynch.  The decision to lynch or not lynch should be based on other arguments that have relevance to other days/interactions.

I'm also rather unsure of PPS and YN, which is part of the reason I don't want to be rash with manda.  Those 2 have kinda flown under my radar and I would really like to look back through their posts in the next day or two. 

Also, I'm now posting from my new computer  :)
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 17, 2012, 03:18:44 pm
Also, I'm now posting from my new computer  :)
Nice! Was it bought with bloody crime syndicate money?
Thing is, no one is posting. I don't want to rush, but if we only wait for someone to get bored and vote for someone else than manda, I do not like it.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 17, 2012, 04:04:09 pm
Still waiting for Sharky's weigh in. I'm don't imagine having much else to say until then. Glad to see we don't have to wait too long.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 17, 2012, 05:30:23 pm
Still waiting for Sharky's weigh in. I'm don't imagine having much else to say until then. Glad to see we don't have to wait too long.

Agreed. However, I still advise that all of us reread a good chunk of d2 before jumping the gun. And that means not just waiting for s_b.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 17, 2012, 08:52:20 pm
Still waiting for Sharky's weigh in. I'm don't imagine having much else to say until then. Glad to see we don't have to wait too long.

Agreed. However, I still advise that all of us reread a good chunk of d2 before jumping the gun. And that means not just waiting for s_b.
Could Nick be repeatedky saying this because he desperately wants us to find any other target than his scumbuddy manda? Just a though, up until this point I've gotten a town vibe from Nick.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 17, 2012, 11:19:20 pm
Still waiting for Sharky's weigh in. I'm don't imagine having much else to say until then. Glad to see we don't have to wait too long.

Agreed. However, I still advise that all of us reread a good chunk of d2 before jumping the gun. And that means not just waiting for s_b.
Could Nick be repeatedky saying this because he desperately wants us to find any other target than his scumbuddy manda? Just a though, up until this point I've gotten a town vibe from Nick.

I actually noticed that I was giving off this vibe during my most recent post. I don't think that my d3 posting is a good indicator of this as much as my d2 (and maybe even d1) defenses of manda are. During that time, I initially viewed her as someone who thought like me. There was at least one or two occasions that I read a post and was about to comment on it, but manda had beat me to it. We both stated that we were cautious players who only voted with relative confidence.

For that reason, I had a good town vibe from her. However, as the game progressed, I felt like her contributions became shallower and shallower. I was shocked when, at some point in d2, if I remember correctly, Galzria said something along the lines of "I see what manda sees" because some of her commentary had seemed so surface-level.

I empathized with her when she took flak for "lurking" because I was going through the same thing.

Now, I feel that her play has been unhelpful town play, and I have re-iterated this before. I guess my point is, is that I have backed her for a while.

You can read this in two ways:
A) She's my scum-buddy.
B) I, like her, am a cautious player and am very aware of the fact that we are at lylo.

There's no point to all of this, but it's a brief history of my reads on manda throughout the game.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 17, 2012, 11:23:41 pm
Why is all of that relevant you ask? Well, because I'm not convinced that there is scum voting for S_B right now. There have been a few reasoned arguments, including my own why he should live to see the night at the least. It would look rather scummy to ignore those, and continue to think S_B is scum. But I'm here to find and lynch Mafia, not scum.

So, I'm looking at Eevee, Robz, Captain_Frisk, and timchen.

Just found this gem from galz way back on page 10.  I find it interesting that 2 of those members are dead already.

This is too funny. I know it is easy to have bad reads, especially early on in the game, but still...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 17, 2012, 11:26:53 pm
I actually noticed that I was giving off this vibe during my most recent post. I don't think that my d3 posting is a good indicator of this as much as my d2 (and maybe even d1) defenses of manda are. During that time, I initially viewed her as someone who thought like me. There was at least one or two occasions that I read a post and was about to comment on it, but manda had beat me to it. We both stated that we were cautious players who only would vote after giving careful consideration to the person accused.

The bolded section is how my first post should have read.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: shark_bait on August 18, 2012, 12:04:31 pm
Just looking back at earlier stuff.

Those on the CF lynch wagon - tc, galz, Rob, PPS, sharky

Those on the Galz lynch wagon - tc, galz, Eevee, PPS

No analysis yet, but I figured I would just put this info out there seeing as it is kinda buried at the moment.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 18, 2012, 02:34:39 pm
Bump! No one can weigh in on my thoughts about manda or s_b's wagon reminder?

I see pps was the only one alive who was on both. Neither manda nor myself were on either.

pps acknowledged that he was still hesitant about hammering Galzria.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 19, 2012, 02:16:02 pm
Voltgloss, it has been over 48 hours since manda has posted. She did warn about being LA this weekend, if I remember correctly. pps and Eevee are getting close to 48 hours, as well.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 19, 2012, 04:12:48 pm
I have stated my case against manda. No one has presented anything as strong (imo ofc), so I'm very inclined to just vote for manda. Especially because she seems to be unwilling to defend herself. Getting yourself lynched means game over for your faction if you are town, so I would expect more emotion and more fighting if this was a mistake.

Actually, since this is the only way I see us getting forward:

Vote: manda and pray to god.

I hope my reads are better here than they were in murder mystery.. because if not,  I just lost town the game.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 19, 2012, 04:32:36 pm
Well, there's this 48 hour thing and then there's the fact I've been pushing manda for 2 days and don'y really have muc else to say and then there's this other vote on the table so I don't feel like the jerk being the 1st to do it. Finally, there's the fact I'm certain manda is scum and once we have a NK I'm going to have a strong read on who the other person is.

Since I'm likely tonight's target, here are my thoughts. Eevee is Town. Either YN or sharky could be scum. I think Sharky is the more obvious scum but my ego says that YN must be the other scum because if manda/sharky were the scum pair I'm embarrassed at Town's play through and through. Put a gun to my head today though and I'd vote Sharky as the other scum partner.

Vote: manda
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 19, 2012, 04:59:10 pm
Unvote and reading through PPS if can I find any inconsistencies. :) Sorry buddy, I will likely vote back, just got to make sure your vote seems like a reasonable town play for you specifically.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 19, 2012, 05:20:40 pm
No, problem, that was precisely what I expected you to do.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 19, 2012, 05:22:00 pm
Prepare to marvel at the complete lack of follow-up votes because scum has been afraid to be seen on a wagon the whole game.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 19, 2012, 07:42:02 pm
Prepare to marvel at the complete lack of follow-up votes because scum has been afraid to be seen on a wagon the whole game.
Scum has it easy when townies pick fights with each other and lynch other townies without any scum votes. :/
Vote: manda, I think PPS is legit. Now all we can do is hope..
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 19, 2012, 08:28:54 pm
Vote: manda
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 19, 2012, 08:30:21 pm
Prepare to marvel at the complete lack of follow-up votes because scum has been afraid to be seen on a wagon the whole game.

Before Eevee put manda at L-1, I was going to quote this to imply that at least one of you were Mafia, and that's why scum was hesitant to move. However, this proved unnecessary.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 19, 2012, 08:31:36 pm
Saddest d3 ever. No one is here to talk to me about a manda lynch. I don't look too good hammering, but who looks scummier, pps or Eevee?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 19, 2012, 09:00:15 pm
Saddest d3 ever. No one is here to talk to me about a manda lynch. I don't look too good hammering, but who looks scummier, pps or Eevee?
I'm here!

So uhm, at least scum didnt quickhammer a townie then!  :) I would have to say PPS looks the scummiest of us (if manda flips town), but you know.. I know I'm town.
Nick tried his best to steer the town towards sharky, so maybe he is manda's partner and now just decided its better to at least take the town cred if she is going to go anyways, so I wouldnt be surprised if he was scum either. Going to be really interesting to see how dies at night given how we have no confirmed townies.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 19, 2012, 09:24:39 pm
Saddest d3 ever. No one is here to talk to me about a manda lynch. I don't look too good hammering, but who looks scummier, pps or Eevee?
I'm here!

So uhm, at least scum didnt quickhammer a townie then!  :) I would have to say PPS looks the scummiest of us (if manda flips town), but you know.. I know I'm town.
Nick tried his best to steer the town towards sharky, so maybe he is manda's partner and now just decided its better to at least take the town cred if she is going to go anyways, so I wouldnt be surprised if he was scum either. Going to be really interesting to see how dies at night given how we have no confirmed townies.

The thing is that I find it possible that you and pps are a pair and lured me in. With the amount of inactivity and what with people being offline, I figure that scum have to assume a quick-hammer is off the table. If no two people are ever online at the same time (and that's what it looks like) then how can the Mafia expect to be online at the same time? So, I'm wary of both of you, but if that's the case, it's game over anyway and I got played like a fool.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 19, 2012, 09:26:46 pm
Also, it's not that I want us to steer clear of manda, but that I want us to steer clear of voting, until the week at least. It seems like most of you can play from work, so I'd rather us wait to vote when more people can post. Having said that, I still found manda scummy; I wouldn't vote for her if I didn't (obviously).

I find it interesting that you (and others, if I remember correctly) read me as trying to steer away from manda when that's not what I wanted at all!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 19, 2012, 09:28:18 pm
I'm refreshing this like a madman (DA reference!), waiting for PPS or someone else to post "YAYYY WE WON".

Volt the suspense is killing us, get here already!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 19, 2012, 09:30:15 pm
Also, it's not that I want us to steer clear of manda, but that I want us to steer clear of voting, until the week at least. It seems like most of you can play from work, so I'd rather us wait to vote when more people can post. Having said that, I still found manda scummy; I wouldn't vote for her if I didn't (obviously).

I find it interesting that you (and others, if I remember correctly) read me as trying to steer away from manda when that's not what I wanted at all!
Well you know what I mean. When I was saying "should we just vote for manda?",  you kept responding with "no we should re-read!!" which obviously is never a bad idea but if you were her scumbuddy, you'd sure appreciate the shift of focus..
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 19, 2012, 09:35:13 pm
True, but that's not what I was getting at. I can see how you read it that way, which is why I gave a long-ish post summarizing the History of My Thoughts on manda2014. It should been in the Bible of Young Nick, if theory would be willing to create such a sub-forum.

Because, well, if she flips town, I will have been right in that hasty voting is a most dangerous proposition. Without too much analysis from others or about others, to boot!

I guess we can't do much of anything at this point but sit on our butts and wait for Volt. He never even responded to my prod request earlier. He hasn't been online in ~9 hours.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 19, 2012, 10:03:27 pm
Wow, just got home and see we just lynched and Mafia isn't claiming victory! I think we just popped scum!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 19, 2012, 10:05:15 pm
Wow, just got home and see we just lynched and Mafia isn't claiming victory! I think we just popped scum!

That or scum is silently popping the champagne, having played a perfect game.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 19, 2012, 10:07:32 pm
Wow, just got home and see we just lynched and Mafia isn't claiming victory! I think we just popped scum!

That or scum is silently popping the champagne, having played a perfect game.
The entire wagon is on and no one is claiming victory.. I think we finally found scum, people! Yay!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 19, 2012, 10:08:38 pm
Lol PPS just said that.. but yeah, PPS posting something non-celebratory means game is not over yet for sure.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 20, 2012, 12:29:37 am
Need. Voltgloss.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 20, 2012, 12:36:47 am
Someone wants to send in a night kill already! Nick here is out for blood.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 20, 2012, 12:37:48 am
No but seriously it's like being an addict and not having my dealer show up.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 20, 2012, 12:43:03 am
Eevee, let's play some Iso to get our other fix in!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Eevee on August 20, 2012, 12:54:16 am
Eevee, let's play some Iso to get our other fix in!
Man's got to sleep, sorry not now.  :-\ Nice redirect though!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 20, 2012, 12:58:10 am
Eevee, let's play some Iso to get our other fix in!
Man's got to sleep, sorry not now.  :-\ Nice redirect though!

We get it. You think I am scummy. :/ Let's let Voltgloss do his thing before we jump to conclusions. You really think I would have so obviously buddied up to my scummate throughout d1 and the first half of d2? Conspirator, please.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Young Nick on August 20, 2012, 12:58:31 am
Conspiatuh, pleassssse.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 2 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Galzria on August 20, 2012, 01:18:05 am
BACKUP MOD:

Vote Count 3-1

manda2014 (3): pingpongsam, Eevee, Young_Nick

Not Voting {2}: manda2014, shark_bait

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

Manda2014 has been lynched! Flavor and Alignment to come when Voltgloss returns. Night Actions are due to him in 48 hours!

THREAD LOCKED!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 20, 2012, 09:56:10 am
Sorry was unexpectedly out of pocket all Sunday. Results shortly.   Thanks Galz.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 20, 2012, 10:16:14 am
Young Nick, pingpongsam, and Eevee stood with arms folded, watching their impromptu bonfire blaze merrily into the night, consuming a sumptuous banquet of roast hay - and manda2014 along with it.

"You guys think we finally hit scum?" asked pingpongsam.

"We'll see soon enough." replied Young Nick.

After the fire died down, they gingerly picked through the charred remains.  It was Eevee who found the blackened but still intact metal badge.  "Guys!  Guys!  Look!" as he frantically rubbed away the soot.  "There's writing here!  A Mafia sigil?  I can just make it out... 'T O W N V A N I LOOF"

When the blackness cleared, Eevee sat up moaning in the Hamlet's jail cell, rubbing at the lump on his head.  shark_bait sat across the way, staring glumly at him.  When Eevee's eyes cleared and gazed questioningly at his companion, sharky pointed to a letter wrapped around a steel file in the center of the cell:

"Dearest Companions,

It is with no small regret we take our leave of your humble Farming Village.  Having eliminated any substantial resistance, it is now only a matter of time before our Mafia brethren arrive to make this land their own.  But never let it be said we aren't sporting chaps; we have left you the means to escape your cell.  Perhaps soon enough to escape the soon-approaching lynch?  Perhaps not.

We did not, however, leave you any food.  We are curious to see who wins when a shark and a rodent are trapped in tight quarters with no source of sustenance but each other.  To Eevee, we offer these parting words of wisdom:  Evolve or Die.

It has been a pleasure playing with you.

Best regards,

pingpongsam, Mafia Rolecop
Young Nick, Mafia Goon
International Brotherhood of Mafiosi
Local No. 286"

The Game Is Over.  Mafia Wins!

(For those curious, both Eevee and shark_bait were also Town Vanilla.  The only power role was Jailkeeper Robz.)

THREAD UNLOCKED
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (DAY 3 UNDERWAY)
Post by: Robz888 on August 20, 2012, 10:17:10 am
Oh, so Eevee blew it. Well played, PPS and YN.

All of us in the QT thought Eevee was obvscum, me most of all.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on August 20, 2012, 10:19:57 am
Very well played guys.  The spectator QT is a riot to read. 
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 20, 2012, 10:21:18 am
Spectator discussion thread: http://www.quicktopic.com/48/H/2NDcvRG3dS6QW

Mafia discussion thread: http://www.quicktopic.com/48/H/W3ydbNNQ7hD4J

Modnotes/discussion thread: http://www.quicktopic.com/48/H/yYhZLqUBFu4

Thanks for playing all.  This was great fun, and quite a learning experience - maybe more for the veterans than the newbies?  ;)

I hope you all will consider joining the next Mafia game I moderate.  Watch the queue/sign-up topics for details!

Till next time!

- Volt
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Eevee on August 20, 2012, 10:27:33 am
Volt, good modding, thanks for the fun!

So so sorry town, although everything else went against us too.  :(

BOOO @ Nick and PPS, mean slowroll!

oh and i'm officially the nut worst mafia player in f.ds now. ughhh.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Robz888 on August 20, 2012, 10:28:31 am
Reading the mafia QT, it's nice to know I was doomed from the start.

I'm going to blame Timchen and Eevee for this one. Eevee is WAY too eager to lynch people. And Timchen, you just don't go around saying somebody is definitely scum unless they are definitely scum.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: theory on August 20, 2012, 10:29:58 am
Did anyone suspect YN at all?  The QT felt like it had settled on PPS/Eevee.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Robz888 on August 20, 2012, 10:33:18 am
I suspected YN more than Manda or Sharky, but no, I wouldn't say I had him figured out at all. Well played. They got a bit lucky, obviously, but their strategy was smart. No big mistakes.

The TOWN on the other hand. Oh boy. Well Manda and Sharky's relative silence didn't help. In fact, they were so quiet that the totally wrong about everytihng people--Timchen ad Eevee--got a disproportionate voice.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 20, 2012, 10:36:47 am
Guys, I felt like I was walking on the edge of a cliff the whole game. I was playing very forward which was uncomfortable for me. I kept focusing on maintaining consistency. Even though I was scum playing scum plays I maintained a hard line on my play so there was no chink to be found. Young_Nick was a fantastic partner because he played the distance game well, even too well for my liking in the final day. I was like, get on the manda wagon, already!

timchen, while ultimately the demise of town for his outrageous play making enough distraction and confusion to work in, was really onto us hard from the get go. His gut kept telling him I was Town but his logic kept making YN/PPS pairs that made my skin crawl every time he posted them.

It wasn't until the last day that I realized Town had no additional PR. A cop would have totally changed things and probably for the worse (from a scum perspective). Our rolecop abilities proved pretty much useless considering we popped the only PR in N1.

Eevee, I have to say I actually felt remorse for gaming you so hard but you were the man we needed for the last 2 days. Everyone else I gamed with sheer glee.

As for the lack of celebration, well, first off I'm not celebrating until the mod calls it a win, otherwise I may well blow a win because of some confusion somewhere. Secondly, it was with sick satisfaction to screw with everyone's heads until the mod declared the game over.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 20, 2012, 10:42:17 am
Oh, yeah, playing as Mafia is far more fun than playing as Town, imho. The toughest part is committing to reading all the posts and trying to build cases out of what I know to be nothing. What is very important for Town play is just grinding work for scum play. I had to force myself to read and reference the past dialogue to look like I cared and to make some Town connection.

Being in the know and watching people make misguided arguments that help your cause is just so damn satisfying. Many times I cackled with evil glee and walked around with a grin on my face people had to ask me about. This hardly ever happened when I played as Town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Young Nick on August 20, 2012, 10:51:04 am
I think that pps and I had such different playstyles, it was so fun to watch in action. It reminded me of the stoner thread by alin_wing that should now get switched to RSP.

In that thread, pps says something along the lines of, "It's something that I would have done years ago when I was younger, but am too mature for now."

I say something like, "Yeah, I play Dominion while high on occasion."

From those posts, it would look like he is the experienced veteran and I am the young'n. However, our playstyles made me look more reserved and had him looking like the cocky, gun's blazing, posting everywhere type, a la ^_^_^.  I thought the contrast between threads was too funny.

Also, I think that except for one (maybe two), "And obviously I know I am town," I went through the whole game without telling a single lie. All of the IRL issues were legit.

Lastly, I would love to know what people thought of my crazy idea for n2/d3.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on August 20, 2012, 10:54:18 am
My favorite part of the game was the continued trolling after you knew that you had won.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Robz888 on August 20, 2012, 11:00:13 am
This is a good demonstration of how, absent powers, it is much harder to play town than to play mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Eevee on August 20, 2012, 11:27:51 am
reading through the quicktopics was.. very humiliating. oh well, thank you PPS for taking me to school.. hopefully i learned something.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on August 20, 2012, 11:29:15 am
reading through the quicktopics was.. very humiliating. oh well, thank you PPS for taking me to school.. hopefully i learned something.

Don't feel bad.  While it was you at the end - we were all convinced that one of (Galzria + Timchen + You) were scum.

Galz was so curious he didn't even come to the spectator QT - he needed to know ASAP.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Eevee on August 20, 2012, 11:33:22 am
robz, it was very frustrating to have the game not progress because everybody lurked, which surely made me impatient. but you are right i'm probably always too eager to lynch anyways.

@frisk

did you notice how i listed the mafia as the two most towny players at the start of our final day, and then helped them to win the game by voting for town?

I did try my hardest to save you day1 at least, much good was that for too..
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Insomniac on August 20, 2012, 11:34:41 am
On day 2 I supsected Galz, and sent my reasons to Volt.

I don't necessarily want the QT for M7 but I want this noted.

Galz, you hasn't answered my questions completely. Among the players on the wagon, who do you suspect the most?

Probably you, but I don't think that's relevant considering my belief that inn terms of simple odds we are more likely to find scum off the wagon - coupled with the fact that I find two people more suspicious than you.

M2 Galz analyzed off wagon knowing full well all mafia was on the wagon. TOWN galz analyzes ON the wagon. MAFIA galz analyzes off the wagon. Coupled with the fact that Galz didnt claim a PR (probably because fakeclaims have traditionally not worked well on f.DS) and I think you have a galz that has adopted to the meta after a large number of games of mafia.

Anyways yea, Galz is my #1 Suspect for mafia
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Robz888 on August 20, 2012, 11:37:34 am
Eevee, I actually think Timchen did the most damage. You just can't say you're sure about someone unless you're really sure. You can't do the "if I'm wrong, kill me" craziness unless you really, really know.

Look at me in the second last round of BMMMI. I had no power role information to go off of, but I really, really, really thought Volt was scum. Like, I was really sure. Super sure. Stake-my-reputation-on-it sure. And I said in the thread that I really, really thought it. But I made sure to note that I didn't know it for certain, it just seemed by far the most likely thing. You have to keep that nuance, if you're town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Young Nick on August 20, 2012, 11:40:46 am
Robz888, who did you Jail in n1? Why?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Voltgloss on August 20, 2012, 11:45:30 am
Robz888, who did you Jail in n1? Why?

Here was Robz's night action PM:

I am traveling this week, so I want to get this in ASAP. I will jail Eevee, hoping he is either scum or if not, scum target.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 20, 2012, 11:46:26 am
Yeah, timchen threw the game for sure. I thought the guy was the Town Cop for a good minute. After some time I came to realize he was the Mafia asset of the year.


Mafia N1 Investigated Galzria, N2 Investigated manda.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Robz888 on August 20, 2012, 11:46:34 am
Oh yeah, Eevee. I didn't really consider someone else. Wouldn't have jailed YN or PPS, no.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on August 20, 2012, 11:47:28 am
Yeah, timchen threw the game for sure. I thought the guy was the Town Cop for a good minute. After some time I came to realize he was the Mafia asset of the year.


Mafia N1 Investigated Galzria, N2 Investigated manda.

Why did you guys kill timchen night 2?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 20, 2012, 12:00:07 pm
All the night Kills were about dissonance and controlling the next Day's direction. It was impossible to predict timchen's direction the next day. I think we covered the timchen kill pretty well in the QT because YN wanted to hit Eevee and I knew I could press him into a manda lynch without much trouble while timchen was a total wildcard. Even though timchen was an easy post-Galzria wagon lynch there was much more dissonance to be had knocking him off.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 20, 2012, 12:02:46 pm
Revised to clarify:

timchen was too easy, a honeypot kill. Anyone pressing his lynch could easily be construed as Mafia.

The manda lynch had been setup a day or two beforehand and Eevee was already signed onto it. No one pressing a manda lynch was easily construed as Mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Robz888 on August 20, 2012, 12:03:29 pm
PPS, that's really smart. Well-played lynching Timchen there.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: O on August 20, 2012, 12:37:42 pm
WELL in my 15 incorrect reads, I at least got that Manda was obvtown >.>
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Young Nick on August 20, 2012, 12:38:48 pm
Yeah, pps really handled our night-actions well. I had no idea that Eevee would be so willing to lynch manda and thus thought that a timchen honeypot was too nice to pass up. Having said that, I still would have loved to NK no-one and wait for a Doc to claim and then CC him or to claim I protected pps if no claim presented itself.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 20, 2012, 12:50:43 pm
YN's claim ideas were superb and if we had been in a tighter spot I would have been on-board. As it was I thought having a fake-claim plan in the case of a Town claim was the best approach and it turns out Town had no one to make a claim.Knowing this now the fake-claim gambit would have been a fun ride.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: jotheonah on August 20, 2012, 01:08:42 pm
hey now that your game is over, why not come sign up for BM V???
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: jotheonah on August 20, 2012, 01:09:22 pm
Here's a link! http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3949.0
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: timchen on August 20, 2012, 02:18:07 pm
It's so sad that everyone blamed me instead of Galzria. Time to leave...
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Insomniac on August 20, 2012, 02:19:24 pm
It's so sad that everyone blamed me instead of Galzria. Time to leave...

It's how you worded your arguments, you made it super tough for anyone to do anything but lynch one of you and you were both town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: O on August 20, 2012, 02:22:51 pm
Really, it's everyone's fault. <Robz, CF, Timchen, Eevee, Galzria> all looked scummy while the other two town lurked hard.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: pingpongsam on August 20, 2012, 02:23:50 pm
It's so sad that everyone blamed me instead of Galzria. Time to leave...

It should be noted that a town majority lynched Galzria and that Mafia killed you out of fear.  I think your perspective is slightly distorted.  You convinced everyone of your true alignment.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Robz888 on August 20, 2012, 02:24:26 pm
As for my own play, I was actually trying to look scummy. Because I was the Jailkeeper, I had a duty to live. And I thought I would likely get NKed pretty quickly unless scum had a reason to leave me alive, and the only reason I could give them was to look suspicious myself.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Young Nick on August 20, 2012, 02:24:33 pm
I totally would blame you for giving your vote to Galzria. It's like holding the rest of town hostage. If I hadn't been working the "timchen is Mafia" angle I totally would have supported a policy lynch. To be honest, the argument presented wasn't that good. You didn't allow the possibility that Galzria was merely misreading you and/or playing bad town instead of being Mafia.''

You should have cut your losses way earlier in the argument, well before you gave up your vote.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Young Nick on August 20, 2012, 02:27:01 pm
As for my own play, I was actually trying to look scummy. Because I was the Jailkeeper, I had a duty to live. And I thought I would likely get NKed pretty quickly unless scum had a reason to leave me alive, and the only reason I could give them was to look suspicious myself.

At the end of the day, it was hard to believe that you would keep playing in such a scummy manner. For that reason, we were fearful that you would wake up on d2 and play a normal, protown game and be a valuable addition to town.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Eevee on August 20, 2012, 02:32:53 pm
As for my own play, I was actually trying to look scummy. Because I was the Jailkeeper, I had a duty to live. And I thought I would likely get NKed pretty quickly unless scum had a reason to leave me alive, and the only reason I could give them was to look suspicious myself.

At the end of the day, it was hard to believe that you would keep playing in such a scummy manner. For that reason, we were fearful that you would wake up on d2 and play a normal, protown game and be a valuable addition to town.
This was the thing I always hated the most about IRL mafia. We played with idiotic rules that allowed the doctor to protect himself, so almost every time the most experienced* player lived to see day 2, town instantly went "oh, Eevee lives, he has to be scum!". And it was actually correct to think so, because I died N1 so so often. Frustrating stuff!

*This is hardly a brag, I always played with family so the level of play was.. not very good. It was always very fun though, even if I was dead a lot.

Actually, I should start a thread here about a reasonable rule set for IRL mafia. We always played with both doctor and cop, no other power roles, daystart and doctors who protect themselves until the very end of the game (in hindsight lol why didn't we think of changing this ever!?). Could be improved, but not sure how.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: eHalcyon on August 20, 2012, 02:38:12 pm
As for my own play, I was actually trying to look scummy. Because I was the Jailkeeper, I had a duty to live. And I thought I would likely get NKed pretty quickly unless scum had a reason to leave me alive, and the only reason I could give them was to look suspicious myself.

At the end of the day, it was hard to believe that you would keep playing in such a scummy manner. For that reason, we were fearful that you would wake up on d2 and play a normal, protown game and be a valuable addition to town.
This was the thing I always hated the most about IRL mafia. We played with idiotic rules that allowed the doctor to protect himself, so almost every time the most experienced* player lived to see day 2, town instantly went "oh, Eevee lives, he has to be scum!". And it was actually correct to think so, because I died N1 so so often. Frustrating stuff!

*This is hardly a brag, I always played with family so the level of play was.. not very good. It was always very fun though, even if I was dead a lot.

Actually, I should start a thread here about a reasonable rule set for IRL mafia. We always played with both doctor and cop, no other power roles, daystart and doctors who protect themselves until the very end of the game (in hindsight lol why didn't we think of changing this ever!?). Could be improved, but not sure how.

Doctors can't protect themselves.  If you have a doctor and a cop, you need to give the Mafia an investigation-immune Godfather or make the cop X-shot or something.  Easier solution is to just use Jailkeeper instead of Doc.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: timchen on August 20, 2012, 02:51:23 pm
I totally would blame you for giving your vote to Galzria. It's like holding the rest of town hostage. If I hadn't been working the "timchen is Mafia" angle I totally would have supported a policy lynch. To be honest, the argument presented wasn't that good. You didn't allow the possibility that Galzria was merely misreading you and/or playing bad town instead of being Mafia.''

You should have cut your losses way earlier in the argument, well before you gave up your vote.
This is true I guess... I tried once by asking him to back off if he is town, he didn't then I just never looked back. In the end the thing to me is that his accusation on me is unreasonable. (As you said, can be from a bad town play; I just realized that way too late.) And he had my vote; if he had better ideas he could have led us to lynch someone else.

Yeah, but that probably did not help. I can't believe you, YN, is mafia after d2. This is simply incredible. You probably have read my lengthy posts more carefully than town Galzria. The way you expressed looked like genuine confused town to me.

PPS was slightly more scummy on my radar but was still more town than everyone else. (My read after I was killed from town to scum: (YN, PPS, Sharky, eevee, manda) it is amazing that you can play scum so consistently.

So props to you two. Great play.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Grujah on August 20, 2012, 05:11:20 pm
Oh, this has ended,  didn't notice. Veterans got schooled! Wanna read last few ending posts, just for the kicks.

Note to self: PPS is awesome at this game. Beware if not on same teams. He rocked both games he was in. Like, heavy.

Galz, you never told us why did you open with scumslip Day1. Whole QT though you were teasing the noobs.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Young Nick on August 20, 2012, 05:12:11 pm
The, "Man, this sucks." How is this a scumslip?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Eevee on August 20, 2012, 05:14:15 pm
The, "Man, this sucks." How is this a scumslip?
Yeah, whats up with multiple people reading that much into wiki.mafiascum tells everybody knows by now!?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Grujah on August 20, 2012, 05:17:59 pm
It is like he QUOTED THE SCUMSLIP NAME. It was TOO OBVIOUS.To me it seemed like he was rubbing it in in your noses. (though, anther article files it as "scum or doc tell" and PPS was doc when he done that MVI).

@Yn -
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Tarhalindur_Standard_Tells
On the bottom.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on August 20, 2012, 05:20:24 pm
It is like he QUOTED THE SCUMSLIP NAME. It was TOO OBVIOUS.To me it seemed like he was rubbing it in in your noses. (though, anther article files it as "scum or doc tell" and PPS was doc when he done that MVI).

@Yn -
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Tarhalindur_Standard_Tells
On the bottom.

Yeah - when I read that I was convinced that Galz was just rubbing his scum-ness in the spectators eyes.  "Hahah - you're all dead and I'm playing with Noobs, I'm going to do whatever I want"

Super kudos to PPS & YN - and FOS all the rest of you for lynching me for trying to make the town talk.
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Eevee on August 20, 2012, 05:22:05 pm
Super kudos to PPS & YN - and FOS all the rest of you for lynching me for trying to make the town talk.
Hello?
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Galzria on August 20, 2012, 05:25:07 pm
I've said that in every game I've played (or something similar). I've now played (completed)  6 regular games. I've been scum once. It isn't a scumtell if the meta don't fit. Not everything Mafiawiki says is accurate, and in fact it's probably only going to be mostly true when relating to new players. After you've gotten past the "this is how to play scum, this is how to play town" phase, it becomes less accurate. For me, M-II, I have a big R.I.P. With shiny glowing letters to Morgrim D2. I was scum. Since then I've stuck to saying something about the passing of a town member each new day. But yeah, losing our PR... It sucked!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Captain_Frisk on August 20, 2012, 05:34:41 pm
Super kudos to PPS & YN - and FOS all the rest of you for lynching me for trying to make the town talk.
Hello?

Yeah - you were obv scum for defending me.  When i died - it was clearly a Galzria / Eevee scum team.  I would have bet even money on it!
Title: Re: Mafia VII: The Annual Nose-Stealing Competition (GAME OVER: MAFIA WINS!)
Post by: Young Nick on August 20, 2012, 11:13:34 pm
Interesting that manda has been active since the game ended but has not yet commented on this thread. s_b hasn't been online in a while, this will be a surprise to him when he goes on f.DS.