There are also 2 cards I mostly like but they can be ragefully luck-reliant on Turns 3/4.... Baron and Salvager. Drawing/not drawing them with Estate is so frustratingly important. And often times they are strong openings on the board, so it's not like it's usually avoidable.
Actually I totally agree and would add to that list Remake. A hand of Remake-Copper-Copper-Copper-Copper can really really suck.
Also I would add by far one of the most luck-dependent cards: Black Market. Oh you got the Mountebank and the Chapel? Well I got the CARAVAN!! WOO!
I am afraid of posting in this thread since rrenaud could prove anything wrong with half an hour of coding... 8) ;)
I am not so sure that tribute is bad...In general Tribute is good if your opponent plays a similar strategy. It's ok in engines if you need actions, but that only works if your opponent also has a high action density, and it's quite great in Big Money, but only if your opponent doesn't play a competing engine deck.
I am not so sure that tribute is bad...
And I still have to say you have to use council room stats with a grain of salt. The community stats as a whole are skewed by lower level players not playing cards correctly and individual stats are skewed by the fact that it includes ALL of a players games. WW was at one point not so good as he is now.
Tribute isn't that bad. It's main strength is against big money. And you can use it either in an engine or big money yourself.Ironically, my recent winrate is much worse than my long-term one, because the people I play now are MUCH better.
And I still have to say you have to use council room stats with a grain of salt. The community stats as a whole are skewed by lower level players not playing cards correctly and individual stats are skewed by the fact that it includes ALL of a players games. WW was at one point not so good as he is now.
Tribute isn't that bad. It's main strength is against big money. And you can use it either in an engine or big money yourself.Ironically, my recent winrate is much worse than my long-term one, because the people I play now are MUCH better.
And I still have to say you have to use council room stats with a grain of salt. The community stats as a whole are skewed by lower level players not playing cards correctly and individual stats are skewed by the fact that it includes ALL of a players games. WW was at one point not so good as he is now.
CR stats in terms of overall card effectiveness are pretty meaningless.
Village? At that point you're getting close to "Silver is a variant card because sometimes it misses reshuffles and sometimes it doesn't".I did have it lower down on my list.
CR stats in terms of overall card effectiveness are pretty meaningless.
Well, I suppose I should say next to meaningless, rather than straight meaningless. But just because the other options have big flaws doesn't mean that this is better. I have no idea what you mean by 'CR stats are usually in the ballpark of "correct"'. I mean, they're absolutely correct, as far as I know. They don't lie. It's just, they only tell you what they tell you, and you really can't read all that much out of them. 'People buy card X all the time' does NOT mean that it's a good card. It means it's a popular card. "People win all the time when they get diadem" does NOT mean it's exceptionally good, or that it's the third-best prize. Correlation does not imply causality here. If anything, the winrates of how people do when they get cards tell me more about how the card is overrated or underrated than how good the card is. Now, in large bulk, you can get very vague generalizations out of the stats here, from the community's winrates as a whole. The top cards TEND to be better than the bottom cards. BUT this doesn't mean that it's true in any particular case. I mean, even in your post, you're doing this. You say that you have to understand WHY silver has a great win rate without. It's because among isotropic-ers, the people who ignore silver entirely TEND to be building a very successful engine. But how do we know that? Not from the stats. We know that because we already know it. Like, loan has a low winrate without. Does this mean that we should be preferring loan to silver all the time? The stats suggest that. But it's not such a hot idea. You have to analyze things apart from the stats to get anything useful. And in this case, you can get basically all that usefulness WITHOUT the stats. So they're not that useful really at all.CR stats in terms of overall card effectiveness are pretty meaningless.
I couldn't disagree more. While CR stats are not perfect, it's not like any other evidence we have at our disposal (primarily simulation and individual games) is perfect either. CR stats are usually in the ballpark of "correct" and if you're careful with them (i.e. understanding WHY Silver has such a high "Win Rate Without") they're basically always useful.
But the bigger thing is that all the time you quote your own "effect with(out)" stats as evidence that a card is good or bad. But that is TOTALLY wrong. What those tell us is that YOU are better/worse with/without the card, against the people you play against, in comparison to the 'average' isotropic player, against the people they play against. Which is to say, it tells us jack squat about how good the card is in general, let alone on a specific board. So you have great tournament numbers. Fine. But that does not tell us that tournament is a good card. It tells us that you're good with it, maybe. Definitely nothing more than that. The same thing, but to a lesser extent, to your own personal win with/without and given availability stats (or mine, or anyone else's); it just doesn't tell you anything about the card objectively.
Player Tourn E/W Tourn E/WO Mount E/W Mount E/WO
WanderingWinder -0.79 2.62 0.36 0.80
-Stef- 1.83 N/A (!) -0.40 0.33
Marin -1.59 N/A (!) -1.50 32.56(!!!!!)
Obi Wan Bonogi -3.23 0.96 -3.17 1.39
jonts26 -0.69 0.68 -0.67 2.21
Fabian 0.25 1.29 -0.69 2.39
chwhite 1.15 0.68 -2.40 0.36
AVeryHappyFish 0.81 -0.96 -1.15 1.11
ARTjoMS 0.01 -1.85 -0.42 1.31
RomaNorgy -1.68 1.07 -2.08 0.69
Finally - some bad cards that are random, but generally bad so its hard to have rage.
Saboteur
Tribute
Thief
Pirate Ship
Smaller oddities crop up when you look closer: Obi Wan Bonogi has a horrible Effect With for Tournament, so that's a possible data point for it being a luck-heavy card- except that Obi has far fewer Tournament games than anything which isn't Governor, Possession, or Hinterlands, leading me to the conclusion that he's probably vetoed it a lot and maybe hasn't bothered to develop Tournament strategy to the extent he has for other cards.Isn't that because he plays a lot of Colony games, which make Tournament less effective (meaning he isn't as comfortable with it when he does buy it)
For every two players X and Y, where X has won most of the games he played against Y (I think councilroom doesn't store ranks from certain points in time so this is the best reference point), look at the games where Y "upset" X. The cards contained in that game are more likely to be variant cards. It's a really weak correlation but I think that should work with sufficiently massive available information.
I think we should be open to the data challenging our expectations. I think the data filtering is totally legitimate.
Remember what I said about niche cards? Duke is probably there as a niche. Adventurer represents people who understand Dominion as a whole.
I don't know what to think of smithy, I haven't played a board weak enough where I needed to buy it in quite sometime. It might have ended up filtering down to only pure BM/Smithy games.
I think we should be open to the data challenging our expectations. I think the data filtering is totally legitimate.
Remember what I said about niche cards? Duke is probably there as a niche. Adventurer represents people who understand Dominion as a whole.
I don't know what to think of smithy, I haven't played a board weak enough where I needed to buy it in quite sometime. It might have ended up filtering down to only pure BM/Smithy games.
Goons 0.689 ± 0.002
Colony 0.694 ± 0.001
Platinum 0.694 ± 0.001
Bishop 0.695 ± 0.002
Ambassador 0.695 ± 0.002
Grand Market 0.696 ± 0.002
Black Market 0.696 ± 0.002
Worker's Village 0.697 ± 0.002
Chapel 0.697 ± 0.002
Peddler 0.698 ± 0.002
Young Witch 0.698 ± 0.003
Expand 0.699 ± 0.002
Masquerade 0.699 ± 0.002
Hunting Party 0.699 ± 0.002
Witch 0.700 ± 0.002
Ghost Ship 0.700 ± 0.002
Hamlet 0.700 ± 0.002
Mountebank 0.700 ± 0.002
Minion 0.700 ± 0.002
King's Court 0.700 ± 0.002
Sea Hag 0.700 ± 0.002
City 0.700 ± 0.002
Scrying Pool 0.700 ± 0.002
Menagerie 0.700 ± 0.002
Festival 0.701 ± 0.002
Torturer 0.701 ± 0.002
Steward 0.701 ± 0.002
Apprentice 0.701 ± 0.002
Familiar 0.701 ± 0.003
Forge 0.701 ± 0.002
Walled Village 0.702 ± 0.002
Trade Route 0.702 ± 0.002
Fishing Village 0.702 ± 0.002
Tournament 0.702 ± 0.002
Village 0.703 ± 0.002
Quarry 0.703 ± 0.002
Market 0.703 ± 0.002
Mint 0.703 ± 0.002
Ill-Gotten Gains 0.703 ± 0.003
University 0.703 ± 0.002
Pirate Ship 0.703 ± 0.002
Ironworks 0.703 ± 0.002
Upgrade 0.703 ± 0.002
Talisman 0.703 ± 0.002
Bridge 0.704 ± 0.002
Great Hall 0.704 ± 0.002
Vineyard 0.704 ± 0.002
Outpost 0.704 ± 0.002
Scheme 0.704 ± 0.003
Remake 0.704 ± 0.002
Border Village 0.704 ± 0.003
Remodel 0.704 ± 0.002
Warehouse 0.704 ± 0.002
Thief 0.704 ± 0.002
Salvager 0.704 ± 0.002
Wharf 0.705 ± 0.002
Spice Merchant 0.705 ± 0.003
Haven 0.705 ± 0.002
Mining Village 0.705 ± 0.002
Farming Village 0.705 ± 0.002
Rabble 0.705 ± 0.002
Contraband 0.705 ± 0.002
Potion 0.706 ± 0.001
Workshop 0.706 ± 0.002
Bazaar 0.706 ± 0.002
Fairgrounds 0.706 ± 0.002
Woodcutter 0.706 ± 0.002
Native Village 0.706 ± 0.002
Alchemist 0.706 ± 0.002
Watchtower 0.706 ± 0.002
Horse Traders 0.707 ± 0.002
Throne Room 0.707 ± 0.002
Fortune Teller 0.707 ± 0.002
Governor 0.707 ± 0.003
Lookout 0.707 ± 0.002
Mine 0.707 ± 0.002
Archivist 0.707 ± 0.038
Spy 0.707 ± 0.002
Apothecary 0.708 ± 0.002
Farmland 0.708 ± 0.003
Monument 0.708 ± 0.002
Tactician 0.708 ± 0.002
Smugglers 0.708 ± 0.002
Loan 0.708 ± 0.002
Transmute 0.708 ± 0.002
Envoy 0.708 ± 0.002
Inn 0.708 ± 0.003
Venture 0.708 ± 0.002
Crossroads 0.708 ± 0.003
Militia 0.708 ± 0.002
Nomad Camp 0.708 ± 0.003
Trading Post 0.708 ± 0.002
Duke 0.708 ± 0.002
Wishing Well 0.708 ± 0.002
Bureaucrat 0.708 ± 0.002
Secret Chamber 0.708 ± 0.002
Bank 0.708 ± 0.002
Herbalist 0.708 ± 0.002
Pawn 0.708 ± 0.002
Horn of Plenty 0.708 ± 0.002
Royal Seal 0.708 ± 0.002
Nobles 0.708 ± 0.002
Cartographer 0.709 ± 0.003
Mandarin 0.709 ± 0.003
Counting House 0.709 ± 0.002
Vault 0.709 ± 0.002
Harvest 0.709 ± 0.002
Highway 0.709 ± 0.003
Island 0.709 ± 0.002
Explorer 0.709 ± 0.002
Navigator 0.709 ± 0.002
Saboteur 0.709 ± 0.003
Cellar 0.709 ± 0.002
Coppersmith 0.709 ± 0.002
Shanty Town 0.709 ± 0.002
Pearl Diver 0.709 ± 0.002
Conspirator 0.709 ± 0.002
Cutpurse 0.709 ± 0.002
Feast 0.709 ± 0.002
Moneylender 0.709 ± 0.002
Laboratory 0.710 ± 0.002
Margrave 0.710 ± 0.003
Courtyard 0.710 ± 0.002
Develop 0.710 ± 0.003
Jester 0.710 ± 0.002
Hoard 0.710 ± 0.002
Philosopher's Stone 0.710 ± 0.002
Tunnel 0.710 ± 0.003
Haggler 0.710 ± 0.003
Tribute 0.710 ± 0.002
Baron 0.710 ± 0.002
Harem 0.710 ± 0.002
Fool's Gold 0.710 ± 0.003
Gardens 0.710 ± 0.002
Possession 0.710 ± 0.003
Adventurer 0.710 ± 0.002
Silk Road 0.710 ± 0.003
Oracle 0.710 ± 0.003
Scout 0.710 ± 0.002
Stash 0.711 ± 0.002
Oasis 0.711 ± 0.003
Golem 0.711 ± 0.002
Council Room 0.711 ± 0.002
Stables 0.711 ± 0.003
Moat 0.711 ± 0.002
Noble Brigand 0.711 ± 0.003
Swindler 0.711 ± 0.002
Embargo 0.712 ± 0.002
Caravan 0.712 ± 0.002
Chancellor 0.712 ± 0.002
Treasury 0.713 ± 0.002
Duchess 0.713 ± 0.003
Treasure Map 0.713 ± 0.002
Library 0.713 ± 0.002
Smithy 0.713 ± 0.002
Trader 0.713 ± 0.003
Merchant Ship 0.714 ± 0.002
Lighthouse 0.714 ± 0.002
Cache 0.714 ± 0.003
Jack of All Trades 0.714 ± 0.003
Embassy 0.714 ± 0.003
Hinterlands cards are probably high in that ranking list since they are the latest expansion. High ranked players will have lost games while learning the cards and then played comparatively few games afterwards to rebalance the stats.
The biggest thing I see in that list is that Goons is far and away the least luck-based card.