Dominion Strategy Forum

Miscellaneous => Forum Games => Mafia Game Threads => Topic started by: Insomniac on May 23, 2012, 04:12:04 pm

Title: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars (GAME OVER, TOWN WINS)
Post by: Insomniac on May 23, 2012, 04:12:04 pm
THERE WILL BE A DISCUSSION THREAD FOR THIS MAFIA. IF YOU DO NOT WANT OTHERS DISCUSSING THIS MAFIA DO NOT PARTICIPATE. YOU MAY NOT POST IN THIS THREAD WHEN DEAD WE ASK THAT YOU DO NOT READ THIS THREAD WHILE ALIVE THOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE ENFORCED


ALIVE
O
defAxxle
Dsell
eHalcyon

DEAD
Galzria - Vanilla Townie - Lynched Day 1
Robz888 - Vanilla Townie - Killed in Night 1
Captain_Frisk - Vanilla Townie - Killed in Night 1
jotheonah - Serial Killer - Lynched Day 2
michaeljb - Vanilla Townie - Killed in Night 2
Morgrim7 - Vanilla Townie - Lynched Day 3
Voltgloss - Mafia Goon - Lynched Day 4
yuma - Mafia Rolecop - Lynched Day 5
Eevee - Mafia Goon - Lynched Day 6


Its been a while since one started and with people getting eliminated from the first 2 I thought I would offer a third game of Mafia to the first 9 that attempt to sign up (assuming theres enough interest). Here are the rules and the potential roles (blatantly stolen from Mafia II).

As a twist on the first 2 IF 10 people sign up we will include the SERIAL Killer role

Mafia Ruleset

Game Rules:

General Gameplay and Etiquette:
1. You may not quote private Moderator-supplied information (either real or fabricated) of any kind. Paraphrasing (for role claims, etc.) is acceptable.
2. There is to be NO personal communication outside of the forum postings unless your role PM specifically allows it. Mafia members may communicate at night and during the confirmation stage.
3. If you have a role with a Night action your choices are due to me by the posted deadline. If I do not receive your choice via PM by the posted deadline you will forfeit your actions. In case of multiple submissions, the last valid one before the deadline will be used.
4. Roles with Night actions will not be able to submit an action on Night 0 (i.e. during the confirmation stage).
5. Any player with a Night action may instead submit a “No Action” PM to let the Mod know that you do not want to perform your expected action that Night phase.
6. As a general rule you should aim for one post every 48 hours, minimum, to keep the game moving.

Voting, Deadlines, and Player Death:
1. A simple majority (rounded up) of all living members must agree on one person for a lynch to occur prior to deadline.
2. Once you have reached a simple majority no further unvoting will change someone’s fate. Further votes will also be ignored.
3. Once a player is lynched the game enters twilight until I post a death scene; all players including the one who was lynched may continue to post during twilight.
4. Please submit votes as: Vote: PlayerName. Votes will NOT be counted if they are not bold! Obvious abbreviations or nicknames will be counted so long as they are unambiguous.
5. Please submit vote revocations as either Unvote: PlayerName or Unvote. Unvotes are not necessary before changing votes.
6. You may Vote: No Lynch - a simple majority of these vote types are required to send the game to Night phase without a lynch.
7. This game will have 1 week deadlines. If a player or No Lynch does not have a simple majority at deadline, no lynch will occur, and the game will go into night.
8. Once you are killed (either via lynch or night kill) you may no longer post. This means that you do not even get a “Bah” post. The dead in this game are silent.
9. Do not edit or delete posts. We don't want some players having more information than others.  If you want to clarify posts, feel free to double post.

Miscellaneous/Mechanics:
1. Bold, blue text is reserved for the Mod. No invisible/small text is allowed, nor is cryptography.
2. If you have an issue/problem with the game, please PM the Mod privately. Do not post issues/complaints in the game thread.
3. The Mod may make mistakes - please point out any mistakes gently. Mistakes will be corrected where possible, but sometimes mistakes are made that cannot be reversed. These will stand as final to be commiserated over after the game.
4. Please bold all requests to the Mod so that they don’t get missed.
5. Prods of missing players will be issued automatically after 72 hours of no activity or upon request after 48 hours of no activity. A prodded player has 48 hours to respond or risks replacement. A player who has been prodded 3 times is subject to replacement without further notice.
6. Rule violations will be dealt with according to their severity, up to and including a Modkill.
7. If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 48-hour period please post a notice to that effect in the thread. Treat this game as a commitment. Be considerate – don’t leave us hanging.


The Golden Rule:

Please remember that this is a game and your main objective is to have fun! Be considerate of each other, don’t get personal, and enjoy the game.


Game Setup
Game Setup information:

As there have been requests for more than 9 players the roles will be determined upon game commencement. I am open to suggestions for roles, and player count

The setup used for this newbie game is one of the ones given below. The setup is randomly determined, but is one of the 6 given here:
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Doctor.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Doctor, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Doctor.

If 10 people sign up: 1 Serial Killer

There will always be two mafia players and seven town players.

Here are all the role PMs that can be in the game:

-----------------------------------------

Mafia Goon
Welcome to Mafia II!

You are a Mafia, a Mafia Goon.

Your partner is __________, a Mafia Rolecop. You make speak with them during the pre-game and during the night phases.
(Any other communication outside of the thread with any other players is prohibited.)

Each night, you or your partner may send me the name of a player you would like to kill.

You win if the Mafia comprise at least half the town, or if nothing can prevent the same from happening.

-----------------------------------------

Mafia Rolecop
Welcome to Mafia II!

You are a Mafia, a Mafia Rolecop.

Your partner is __________, a Mafia Goon. You make speak with them during the pre-game and during the night phases.
(Any other communication outside of the thread with any other players is prohibited.)

Each night, you or your partner may send me the name of a player you would like to kill.

Each night, you may also send me the name of a fellow player. You will be told their role name.

You win if the Mafia comprise at least half the town, or if nothing can prevent the same from happening.

-----------------------------------------

Town Doc
Welcome to Mafia II!

You are a Townie, a Town Doc.

Each night, you may send me the name of a fellow player. You will protect that player from death.

You win when all of the Mafia are dead.

-----------------------------------------

Town Cop
Welcome to Mafia II!

You are a Townie, a Town Cop.

Each night, you may send me the name of a fellow player. You will be informed if that player is town or mafia.

You win when all of the Mafia are dead.

-----------------------------------------

Town Jailkeeper
Welcome to Mafia II!

You are a Townie, a Town Jailkeeper.

Each night, you may send me the name of a fellow player. That player will be protected from death, and will perform no night actions.

You win when all of the Mafia are dead.

-----------------------------------------

Town Vanilla
Welcome to Mafia II!

You are a Townie, a Vanilla Townie.

You win when all of the Mafia are dead.

-----------------------------------------

Serial Killer
Welcome to Mafia II!

You are a psychopath, a Serial Killer.

Each night, you may send me the name of a player you would like to kill.

You win everyone else is dead.

-----------------------------------------


TO CLARIFY, I AM NOT A MODERATOR OF F.DS IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM.  IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS GAME, I AM MODERATING THAT THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED AND HIDDEN ACTIONS ARE COMPLETED PROPERLY.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Robz888 on May 23, 2012, 04:19:53 pm
Well, I will of course play, with a couple caveats:

I won't feel bad if you reject my application because I'm too obsessed :P
If theory has a problem with Mafia continuing obviously I won't do it
I would prefer to actually include more than 9 players this time, if there is interest for that
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Insomniac on May 23, 2012, 04:23:17 pm
Well, I will of course play, with a couple caveats:

I won't feel bad if you reject my application because I'm too obsessed :P
If theory has a problem with Mafia continuing obviously I won't do it
I would prefer to actually include more than 9 players this time, if there is interest for that

I am of course fine with more than 9 and wouldn't want to run it if theory opposed. SINCE he gave us a dedicated forum for games that does not show up in recent form posts i suspect he has no issue.  But if he asks me to not run this I will cancel.

Robz of course you can play.

What number would you be happier with than 9 and do you have suggestions for Roles
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Galzria on May 23, 2012, 04:24:58 pm
Please count me in as well

Edit (omg, I've forgotten what one feels like!)

Same caveats as Robz has.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: WanderingWinder on May 23, 2012, 04:35:03 pm
I'm tentatively down to play, I'd prefer to have more than 9, and I'd prefer to do it... elsewhwere. Off these forums. But eh.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: O on May 23, 2012, 04:39:39 pm
I'd like to sign up!

The more the merrier.
Off-forums or On-forums is OK.
Robz is starting to scare me.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Thisisnotasmile on May 23, 2012, 04:44:52 pm
Not committing myslef yet, but if I'm dead in mafia I before this fills up I'd be tempted to join just to make some more enemies. And I'd much prefer a game with no size limits to allow anyone who wanted to play to be able to.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: theory on May 23, 2012, 05:43:54 pm
Quote
TO CLARIFY, I AM NOT A MODERATOR OF F.DS IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM.  IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS GAME, I AM MODERATING THAT THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED AND HIDDEN ACTIONS ARE COMPLETED PROPERLY.
This made me laugh.

I don't have any objection to continuing to run Mafia games here.  But I'd like to be able to have a discussion topic for Mafia III, with the condition that everyone spoilers their posts.  Is that all right with you all?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Galzria on May 23, 2012, 05:50:35 pm
Quote
TO CLARIFY, I AM NOT A MODERATOR OF F.DS IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM.  IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS GAME, I AM MODERATING THAT THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED AND HIDDEN ACTIONS ARE COMPLETED PROPERLY.
This made me laugh.

I don't have any objection to continuing to run Mafia games here.  But I'd like to be able to have a discussion topic for Mafia III, with the condition that everyone spoilers their posts.  Is that all right with you all?

I have stated in the past that I am fine with it. I believe a few others share this opinion, however I know that some are wary as well. Eh, up to you guys. I don't mind though.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Insomniac on May 23, 2012, 05:52:50 pm
It doesn't bother me the reason I played in Mafia II at all is because I think the community here is pretty solid. I don't suspect that people would cheat. I mean they are playing a game for fun.

Also, theory glad to have you weigh in, and yea I completely stole that part of the post from Axxle lol. He had it so I figured it might just be a good thing to have in general *shrug*
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: theory on May 23, 2012, 05:57:19 pm
I didn't see it for Mafia II!  :P  I must have skipped over it.

How about this: let's make this game a test run.  Only sign up if you're willing to be the guinea pig for a game with a public yet spoilered discussion topic, and we can all discuss the experience afterwards.  If it wasn't a good experience then we'll scrap it for future Mafia's.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: theory on May 23, 2012, 05:59:17 pm
Also, I'd like to have some clarity on how night actions work.  In what order do effects resolve?  If I am murdered by Mafia, do I still get my night action?  If the Jailkeeper jails the Cop and the Mafia murders the jailkeeper, does the Cop get "no effect"?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: WanderingWinder on May 23, 2012, 06:04:03 pm
Quote
TO CLARIFY, I AM NOT A MODERATOR OF F.DS IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM.  IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS GAME, I AM MODERATING THAT THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED AND HIDDEN ACTIONS ARE COMPLETED PROPERLY.
This made me laugh.

I don't have any objection to continuing to run Mafia games here.  But I'd like to be able to have a discussion topic for Mafia III, with the condition that everyone spoilers their posts.  Is that all right with you all?
Upvote upvote upvote.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Insomniac on May 23, 2012, 06:09:38 pm
Also, I'd like to have some clarity on how night actions work.  In what order do effects resolve?  If I am murdered by Mafia, do I still get my night action?  If the Jailkeeper jails the Cop and the Mafia murders the jailkeeper, does the Cop get "no effect"?

These are actually up to the mod so I will clarify

1) In what order do effects resolve?  If I am murdered by Mafia, do I still get my night action? This would depend on the night action. If its  a cop style action does it really matter? If its a preventetive effect Jailkeeper doctor. Then yes. However since you can't target yourself with those abilities its not relevant unless there are multiple night kills

2) If the Jailkeeper jails the Cop and the Mafia murders the jailkeeper, does the Cop get "no effect"? Yes.

I will attempt to resolve all night actions simultaneously to the best of my abilities
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: O on May 23, 2012, 06:10:18 pm
Quote
TO CLARIFY, I AM NOT A MODERATOR OF F.DS IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM.  IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS GAME, I AM MODERATING THAT THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED AND HIDDEN ACTIONS ARE COMPLETED PROPERLY.
This made me laugh.

I don't have any objection to continuing to run Mafia games here.  But I'd like to be able to have a discussion topic for Mafia III, with the condition that everyone spoilers their posts.  Is that all right with you all?
Upvote upvote upvote.

This, with my pleas for the condition once again... no dead mafia, no dead mafia, no dead mafia. Then if even people can't resist the theoretical "gain" from reading it really is quite minimal.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: def on May 23, 2012, 06:14:55 pm
I'm in if it's ok that I never played before. :)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Insomniac on May 23, 2012, 06:17:20 pm
Also, I'd like to have some clarity on how night actions work.  In what order do effects resolve?  If I am murdered by Mafia, do I still get my night action?  If the Jailkeeper jails the Cop and the Mafia murders the jailkeeper, does the Cop get "no effect"?

These are actually up to the mod so I will clarify

1) In what order do effects resolve?  If I am murdered by Mafia, do I still get my night action? This would depend on the night action. If its  a cop style action does it really matter? If its a preventetive effect Jailkeeper doctor. Then yes. However since you can't target yourself with those abilities its not relevant unless there are multiple night kills

2) If the Jailkeeper jails the Cop and the Mafia murders the jailkeeper, does the Cop get "no effect"? Yes.

I will attempt to resolve all night actions simultaneously to the best of my abilities

Actually I found this I'll follow this.

Def: Absolutely
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: O on May 23, 2012, 06:19:16 pm
Few things:

1) As written, Cop investigating Serial Killer returns townie. I actually like it better this way though.
2) "Sane cop". If anyone ever tries to introduce Insane cop into a forum mafia game here I will hunt them down and kill them.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Insomniac on May 23, 2012, 06:20:13 pm
Quote
TO CLARIFY, I AM NOT A MODERATOR OF F.DS IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM.  IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS GAME, I AM MODERATING THAT THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED AND HIDDEN ACTIONS ARE COMPLETED PROPERLY.
This made me laugh.

I don't have any objection to continuing to run Mafia games here.  But I'd like to be able to have a discussion topic for Mafia III, with the condition that everyone spoilers their posts.  Is that all right with you all?
Upvote upvote upvote.

This, with my pleas for the condition once again... no dead mafia, no dead mafia, no dead mafia. Then if even people can't resist the theoretical "gain" from reading it really is quite minimal.

whats the condition?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: O on May 23, 2012, 06:21:31 pm
Quote
TO CLARIFY, I AM NOT A MODERATOR OF F.DS IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM.  IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS GAME, I AM MODERATING THAT THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED AND HIDDEN ACTIONS ARE COMPLETED PROPERLY.
This made me laugh.

I don't have any objection to continuing to run Mafia games here.  But I'd like to be able to have a discussion topic for Mafia III, with the condition that everyone spoilers their posts.  Is that all right with you all?
Upvote upvote upvote.

This, with my pleas for the condition once again... no dead mafia, no dead mafia, no dead mafia. Then if even people can't resist the theoretical "gain" from reading it really is quite minimal.

whats the condition?

Sometimes what's in my head when i'm typing doesn't exactly come out...

No mafia players who are dead posting in the discussion thread, revealing info.  ::)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: theory on May 23, 2012, 06:24:27 pm
Does that restriction include vanilla townies?  Technically they have the same knowledge as any random townie, but I think they should also be restricted, because as anyone who reads the Mafia I quicktopic knows, dead vanilla townies are somewhat biased. ;)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Insomniac on May 23, 2012, 06:25:47 pm
How about no dead players post in general? This is a request only as I can't enforce it and dead players are not in the game so I can't do anything game related to them
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: theory on May 23, 2012, 06:27:37 pm
How about no dead players post in general? This is a request only as I can't enforce it and dead players are not in the game so I can't do anything game related to them
That's basically the gist of my and O's post, and I can enforce it :)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Insomniac on May 23, 2012, 06:29:59 pm
Sounds good to me Ill update the initial post to have info on this
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Dsell on May 23, 2012, 06:46:50 pm
I'm pretty interested in this, I've been enjoying following the other mafia games (well, just one of them now) though I've never played forum mafia before. The thing is, I spend a lot of time on the forum and it's been tough at times for me to even keep up with all the reading during really active times. So I can only imagine trying to keep up with other mafia games, my own mafia game, trying to formulate responses with lots of analysis, keeping up with, you know, Dominion strategy, and trying to play on isotropic. Oh yeah, and real life.

But I think I'm up for a challenge. :D

And yeah, Robz is insane.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Voltgloss on May 23, 2012, 07:04:47 pm
Insomniac, I think an errant bracketed s has made half the intro post struck-through.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: O on May 23, 2012, 07:06:10 pm
Insomniac, I think an errant bracketed s has made half the intro post struck-through.

He's changing the setup as we'll likely have more than 9-10 players.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Voltgloss on May 23, 2012, 07:09:07 pm
Insomniac, I think an errant bracketed s has made half the intro post struck-through.

He's changing the setup as we'll likely have more than 9-10 players.

Oh, my error.  Sorry!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: theory on May 23, 2012, 07:15:48 pm
The thing is, I spend a lot of time on the forum and it's been tough at times for me to even keep up with all the reading during really active times.

Rest assured, you are at least 16 days away from cracking the top 10, and well over a month away from topping WanderingWinder.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Dsell on May 23, 2012, 07:23:05 pm
The thing is, I spend a lot of time on the forum and it's been tough at times for me to even keep up with all the reading during really active times.

Rest assured, you are at least 16 days away from cracking the top 10, and well over a month away from topping WanderingWinder.

I'd be comforted except that I've only been here 2 and a half months. XD
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Galzria on May 23, 2012, 07:29:12 pm
The thing is, I spend a lot of time on the forum and it's been tough at times for me to even keep up with all the reading during really active times.

Rest assured, you are at least 16 days away from cracking the top 10, and well over a month away from topping WanderingWinder.
I'd be comforted except that I've only been here 2 and a half months. XD

Weak. I've been here two weeks less, and have over 11 days logged!
...
Oh. You mean I SHOULDNT be proud of that? :'(
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 23, 2012, 07:30:51 pm
Well, with my death in 2, I will play. I will try no to kill myself again.  ;)
But yeah, I would love to
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: WanderingWinder on May 23, 2012, 07:41:09 pm
The thing is, I spend a lot of time on the forum and it's been tough at times for me to even keep up with all the reading during really active times.

Rest assured, you are at least 16 days away from cracking the top 10, and well over a month away from topping WanderingWinder.
SOMEONE IS CHALLENGING ME???!!! WHO DARES???

In all seriousness, I remember passing theory and thinking that was a big deal. That was in the... 200s?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Dsell on May 23, 2012, 07:47:54 pm
The thing is, I spend a lot of time on the forum and it's been tough at times for me to even keep up with all the reading during really active times.

Rest assured, you are at least 16 days away from cracking the top 10, and well over a month away from topping WanderingWinder.

I'd be comforted except that I've only been here 2 and a half months. XD

Weak. I've been here two weeks less, and have over 11 days logged!
...
Oh. You mean I SHOULDNT be proud of that? :'(

WHAT. I take it ALL back and feel much better. ;)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Dsell on May 23, 2012, 07:48:57 pm
The thing is, I spend a lot of time on the forum and it's been tough at times for me to even keep up with all the reading during really active times.

Rest assured, you are at least 16 days away from cracking the top 10, and well over a month away from topping WanderingWinder.
SOMEONE IS CHALLENGING ME???!!! WHO DARES???

In all seriousness, I remember passing theory and thinking that was a big deal. That was in the... 200s?

I might be able to do it if I quit watching your videos and spent that time on the forum instead.  :P

Edit: ANYWAY MAFIA. I obviously don't spend as much time here as some.... ::) ...but no matter! I am in.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: popsofctown on May 23, 2012, 09:20:55 pm
Also, I'd like to have some clarity on how night actions work.  In what order do effects resolve?  If I am murdered by Mafia, do I still get my night action?  If the Jailkeeper jails the Cop and the Mafia murders the jailkeeper, does the Cop get "no effect"?

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Natural_Action_Resolution

Killing never stops people from performing actions, it happens at the end of the night, you could say.

Larger setups are generally better off closed.  That's where you don't tell the players in the game what roles are being used.  It's like Mafia I's 2 of 4, except instead of 12 possibilities explicitly defined there are a couple million possible in the mod's imagination. 
The major benefit to it is avoiding a situation where lots of vanilla townies get lynched and killed early on by happenstance, so halfway through the game optimal strategy becomes mass roleclaims, flooding the town with uniquely rolenamed confirmed innocents.

Might be a good idea to have me review a closed setup you plan on using, should that be the choice.  I don't plan on playing.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Insomniac on May 24, 2012, 12:54:27 pm
So we're up to 9 confirmed and 3 1 tentative for a max of 10 10 if all tentatives confirm. For the record this is the list I've seen

Confirmed
Robz
Galzria
O
def
Dsell
Morgrim7
Eevee
Captain_Frisk
michaeljb



Tentative
yuma
WanderingWinder
Thisisnotasmile




popsofctown: I will be taking you up on that offer. Thanks!

My thought is that I'll leave registration open for an additional 24 hours once we have 9 or 10 confirmed. With both Mafia I and II being in the night phase I suspect more people will have a chance to pop in here in the next 48. Once 9 or 10 are confirmed I will take all registrants that confirm in the 24 hour time space after that. (or as close to 24 hours as possible)

So those of you that are tentative please confirm or cancel your entrance so that I can have an accurate count
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Robz888 on May 24, 2012, 12:58:10 pm
It would be great if we could get up to 12 or 13 people. That's the number I usually play with IRL, and it's a lot of fun.

I don't mind if there are a lot of roles to choose from and it's random which ones you are using, but I think I would still like a list of all the possible roles for the game... It's up to you though!

I was browsing roles to see what would be fun things to play. This Serial Killer looks interesting. Might want to give him one free dodge from a night kill, though, as he looks hard to win with.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Insomniac on May 24, 2012, 01:03:47 pm
Its not entirely random which roles are using, I have a vague idea for every number of entrants.

Also I suspect that with the new way I proposed for entrants it will probably be 12+. but we could wait till There's 12 as well (From what I've seen 13 is the limit for non large games)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Thisisnotasmile on May 24, 2012, 01:52:32 pm
Serial killer is a TINAS role if ever there was one.

However, I am out of this game if there is going to be public discussion running alongside. Especially if that public discussion is going to be on these very forums and not hidden at all.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Eevee on May 24, 2012, 07:45:37 pm
Yeah I'll play! I'll be in Vegas until the 13th but posting drunk isnt prohibited so why not.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: michaeljb on May 24, 2012, 08:51:01 pm
I'd like to play
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: popsofctown on May 24, 2012, 09:26:41 pm
Yeah I'll play! I'll be in Vegas until the 13th but posting drunk isnt prohibited so why not.

Drunkposting as mafia is undoubtedly risky.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Kuildeous on May 24, 2012, 10:40:27 pm
Yeah I'll play! I'll be in Vegas until the 13th but posting drunk isnt prohibited so why not.

Drunkposting as mafia is undoubtedly risky.

Or the greatest con ever!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Eevee on May 25, 2012, 03:15:24 am
Yeah I'll play! I'll be in Vegas until the 13th but posting drunk isnt prohibited so why not.

Drunkposting as mafia is undoubtedly risky.
But I'm town!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: michaeljb on May 25, 2012, 11:23:30 am
However, I am out of this game if there is going to be public discussion running alongside. Especially if that public discussion is going to be on these very forums and not hidden at all.

I didn't actually have time to read the whole thread when I wanted to sign up, but like TINAS says, I don't want to play if the discussion is going to be on these forums; if a quicktopic thread is started and the link is only given out privately (like the Mafia I discussion) I'll have no problem with that.

eh, screw it I want to play, public discussion or not.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 25, 2012, 11:29:33 am
I am a noob, but if there is room I'll play

Also - I am town
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Robz888 on May 25, 2012, 01:36:52 pm
I have absolutely no preference for how our game is discussed among non-players. But I do prefer to have as many people as possible playing, so if that's a sticking point for some people, I would meet their demands.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Galzria on May 25, 2012, 01:44:41 pm
Robz's point is well made. Especially in light of how Mafia-I and Mafia-II are playing out. They could honestly be two COMPLETELY separate games. So the more people from each (and outside observers) that we can include the better. Let's get both the "We hate and mistrust everyone!" (Mafia-I) crowd mixed in with the "Let's over analyze everything to death until we know nothing!" (Mafia-II) crowd together! The crazier the better imo.  :P
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: jotheonah on May 25, 2012, 02:52:25 pm
I shouldn't play another one... it makes me crazy and paranoid and is not going to be a good idea once I'm actually employed. On the other hand, I do want a chance to actually learn lessons from the ongoing train wreck that is Mafia II...

I guess I'll play.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Voltgloss on May 25, 2012, 03:00:37 pm
On the other hand, I do want a chance to actually learn lessons from the ongoing train wreck that is Mafia II...

I was on the fence about joining, but this comment decided me.  Because I couldn't agree more with it (as applied to myself).

So I'll play if there's room.  If not, well, them's the breaks.  Hell, I might even try my hand at moderating one of these after Mafia II ends.  We'll see!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Robz888 on May 25, 2012, 03:56:55 pm
Hell, I might even try my hand at moderating one of these after Mafia II ends.  We'll see!

I'll be in for that one, too.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Insomniac on May 25, 2012, 04:03:33 pm
So we're up to 10 confirmed and 1 tentative for a max of 11 if all tentatives confirm. For the record this is the list I've seen

Confirmed
Robz
Galzria
O
def
Dsell
Morgrim7
Eevee
Captain_Frisk
Jotheonah
Voltgloss



Tentative
WanderingWinder



Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: michaeljb on May 25, 2012, 04:14:06 pm
However, I am out of this game if there is going to be public discussion running alongside. Especially if that public discussion is going to be on these very forums and not hidden at all.

I didn't actually have time to read the whole thread when I wanted to sign up, but like TINAS says, I don't want to play if the discussion is going to be on these forums; if a quicktopic thread is started and the link is only given out privately (like the Mafia I discussion) I'll have no problem with that.

eh, screw it I want to play, public discussion or not.

I changed my mind :p
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Robz888 on May 25, 2012, 04:26:46 pm
Yay more players! :)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Galzria on May 25, 2012, 04:29:08 pm
However, I am out of this game if there is going to be public discussion running alongside. Especially if that public discussion is going to be on these very forums and not hidden at all.

I didn't actually have time to read the whole thread when I wanted to sign up, but like TINAS says, I don't want to play if the discussion is going to be on these forums; if a quicktopic thread is started and the link is only given out privately (like the Mafia I discussion) I'll have no problem with that.

eh, screw it I want to play, public discussion or not.

I changed my mind :p

Good man!  ;D
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Voltgloss on May 25, 2012, 04:32:56 pm
Fair warning:  while Mafia II is ongoing, I will be less active here than I was in the first two days of Mafia II.  (I'll certainly still BE active here, naturally.  No bozzballing for me!  :) ) 
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Insomniac on May 25, 2012, 04:55:58 pm
We are now at 11 and 12 if Wandering Winder confirms. I will allow sign ups for 24 more hours then we will start
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: eHalcyon on May 25, 2012, 05:17:04 pm
Why not?  Actually, I can think of lots of reasons why not... but I'm in.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: WanderingWinder on May 26, 2012, 03:59:10 pm
I'm out.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: yuma on May 26, 2012, 06:03:14 pm
Likewise I've changed my mind... I will be in if you take me. If not that is ok.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Robz888 on May 26, 2012, 06:26:28 pm
So we have 12? 12 would be awesomeness. You might consider having 3 mafia. Or 2 and the Serial Killer.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Eevee on May 26, 2012, 06:54:26 pm
So we have 12? 12 would be awesomeness. You might consider having 3 mafia. Or 2 and the Serial Killer.
3 mafia sounds better to me. (Then again I've only ever played face to face mafia with doctor, cop, mafia and townies, all these other roles sound oh so confusing and hard.)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: michaeljb on May 26, 2012, 06:59:23 pm
So we have 12? 12 would be awesomeness. You might consider having 3 mafia. Or 2 and the Serial Killer.
3 mafia sounds better to me. (Then again I've only ever played face to face mafia with doctor, cop, mafia and townies, all these other roles sound oh so confusing and hard.)
I've also only played IRL, same roles, but I'm excited to try these other roles :D
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Insomniac on May 26, 2012, 09:24:17 pm
To be started later today I will be running my idea by pops for roles
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Galzria on May 26, 2012, 09:59:51 pm
Ooh, I hope I'm a serial killer. Sounds unscrupulous. Free kill every night.. nobodies best interests but my own... Killer of Mafia and Town alike... Answers to no one...
 ;D  ;D  ;D
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: michaeljb on May 27, 2012, 02:10:49 am
To be started later today I will be running my idea by pops for roles
Hmmm, in my time zone we are now past the day of this post, but have not started yet...how very suspicious. Can never trust insomniacs (see Fight Club and The Machinist for further evidence of this).

haha I'm just excited to get started and getting a little impatient I suppose ;D

edit: on another note, I've been reading a bit about other roles that exist and the one that has me the most intrigued is the rat--works with the mafia, but only wins if town wins. Seems like it would be very interesting to play, but also very difficult.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 02:19:31 am
I think he's waiting to hear from Popsofctown to review his setup.  :'(
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Robz888 on May 27, 2012, 02:27:06 am
I think he's waiting to hear from Popsofctown to review his setup.  :'(

I know. It's making me weep too that the game isn't going yet. On the other hand, it's important for pops to review. What if Insomniac tried to include the Suicide Bomber? I played with the Suicide Bomber once. The Suicide Bomber is a townsperson that kills someone as soon as he is killed. He is a very vengeful townsperson.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Insomniac on May 27, 2012, 05:05:54 am
To clarify I am indeed waiting for pops to review. And I will say there is no insane cop nor suicide bomber in my proposed set ups. I didn't feel like making people hate the mod :P
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: eHalcyon on May 27, 2012, 05:10:09 am
edit: on another note, I've been reading a bit about other roles that exist and the one that has me the most intrigued is the rat--works with the mafia, but only wins if town wins. Seems like it would be very interesting to play, but also very difficult.

Wait, what's to prevent the rat from revealing on day 1 and just saying "these are all the Mafia"?  If he wins with the town, there's no reason not to do that...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: jotheonah on May 27, 2012, 07:56:02 am
Well, because they might not believe him. Claiming is always tricky business.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Thisisnotasmile on May 27, 2012, 07:59:24 am
What incentive for claiming Rat would anybody have, other than the Rat?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: jotheonah on May 27, 2012, 09:20:10 am
A mafioso might claim rat to lend support to his claim that X,Y, and Z are mafia, of course.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Voltgloss on May 27, 2012, 10:04:24 am
Then if a Rat claims day 1, isn't the solution to just lynch the Rat?  If they're the Rat, you find that out after the lynch, and then lynch the identified Mafiosi on the following three days.  If they're Mafia, well, you lynched Mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 01:07:46 pm
In light of Captain Frisk opening Mafia-I for Popsofctown (who is away on vacation), you may want to just roll Insomniac. Unless you really want his input, in which case I'm not sure how long we'll be waiting in limbo.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: Insomniac on May 27, 2012, 01:37:18 pm
Roles PM's out. If you didn't get yours PM me. For now please do not talk as we will allow the Mafia until 5pm PDT to talk strategy.

There are 13 people playing.

Robz
Galzria
O
def
Dsell
Morgrim7
Eevee
michaeljb
Captain_Frisk
jotheonah
Voltgloss
eHalcyon
yuma
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars PREGAME UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 27, 2012, 07:26:53 pm
So with all the crossed out text in the OP, I just want to ask about the roles for clarification...is it correct that there are 2 Mafia members, 1 Serial Killer, and 10 Townies? And then for the townies, power roles handed out with the same 2 of 4 system used in Mafia I? Or do we not get to know any details beyond our own roles?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars PREGAME UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on May 27, 2012, 08:10:23 pm
You walking around your homeless shelter that you all moved into when times got tough. While begging for twigs one day you saw that Insomniac had been stabbed with a branch in the back. He lay dead.

Day 1 has begun.


michaeljb - Its closed you don't get to know what the roles are
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 08:15:29 pm
 8) Didn't like that Insomniac guy anyway. *Searches his pockets*. Damn. I thought he had a food stamp on him. Looks like he was cleaned out before I arrived.  :'(
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 27, 2012, 08:18:56 pm
So in light of the flavor, does that make our town ... a SHANTY TOWN?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 08:23:09 pm
Insomniac:

We *DO* get confirmation on the number of Mafia though, correct? I was led to believe we would have 3. Knowing how many there are could change how we look at votes (knowing how far from a potential hammer we are, etc). I understand if you can't tell us if there is a Serial Killer or not (SO TOWN, ASSUME THERE IS) however.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 27, 2012, 08:26:37 pm
Insomniac - Thanks, good to know.

Galzria - You say he was cleaned out already, did someone already take that branch? I was thinking a branch would be nice decor for my corner of the shelter, but who can find a branch these days?

jonah - I'd sure say so.

So the killers aren't fans of people who don't/can't sleep at night...hmm...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 08:31:48 pm
So the killers aren't fans of people who don't/can't sleep at night...hmm...

Or maybe they ARE people who can't sleep at night, and Insomniac was getting in their way. <Looks at Robz>
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 27, 2012, 08:34:04 pm
With so much overlap with Mafia II it's gonna be hard for those of us still alive to keep each other's behavior straight and separate in the two games. I think out of fairness to the new people we should try not to reference the other games unless it's really pertinent.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 27, 2012, 08:36:14 pm
Ahh, here we are again, Robz, Galzria, Voltgloss, and jotheonah. :)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on May 27, 2012, 08:36:58 pm
This closed game thing sounds really complicated, especially not knowing how big the mafia is. If they wont tell us that, we really need to coordinate carefully before casting pretty much any but the very first votes, right? Cant think of any power roles that would be too crucial to know about.. not until someone starts claiming them anyways?

If I'm wrong on the latter point, should someone who has played these kinds of games before inform us who havent what kind of roles are possible/usual?

//Fwiw regarding behaviour in other games, I've read most of mafia 1 but nothing of mafia 2.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 08:37:13 pm
With so much overlap with Mafia II it's gonna be hard for those of us still alive to keep each other's behavior straight and separate in the two games. I think out of fairness to the new people we should try not to reference the other games unless it's really pertinent.

Oh I agree. Same holds for the Mafia-I people. My comment wasn't a reference to Mafia-II, rather to the fact that Robz is always up late and does a lot of his posting at night.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 08:41:48 pm
Ahh, here we are again, Robz, Galzria, Voltgloss, and jotheonah. :)

I know! It's great! Most of the gang from Mafia-II (or the "Over-Analyze To Death Group"), AND many from Mafia-I (The "Point-Fingers And Attack Everyone Group")! Wheee! This should be entertaining at least.

(Note: The above feelings about each group are my own, and may not be shared by others.  ;D)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on May 27, 2012, 08:49:04 pm
Ahh, here we are again, Robz, Galzria, Voltgloss, and jotheonah. :)

MORGRIM IS MAFIA BECAUSE IT WORKED SO WELL THE LAST TIME oh wait

In all seriousness, the closed setup - and the vast array of roles that could be out there - leave me a bit at sea.  I mean, just taking a look at what the MafiaScum wiki calls the most common roles:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Roles (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Roles)

and my head is already spinning.  Vigilante Townies who can kill at night?  Bulletproof Serial Killers?  Millers who are innocent but get investigated as mafia?  Godfathers who are mafia but get investigated as innocent?  Yeesh.

Has anyone here played before in a large, closed game like this?  Any general comments from those experiences?

And Insomniac, here's a rules question:  When someone dies, is their alignment and/or role revealed?  (That's how it is in Mafia II, but I don't know how universal that is for forum Mafia.)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 08:51:07 pm
This closed game thing sounds really complicated, especially not knowing how big the mafia is. If they wont tell us that, we really need to coordinate carefully before casting pretty much any but the very first votes, right? Cant think of any power roles that would be too crucial to know about.. not until someone starts claiming them anyways?

If I'm wrong on the latter point, should someone who has played these kinds of games before inform us who havent what kind of roles are possible/usual?

//Fwiw regarding behaviour in other games, I've read most of mafia 1 but nothing of mafia 2.

I'm hoping to know at least how many Mafia there are. But if not, we can roll with it. Assume 3, and if it's 2, great. I doubt VERY much you would see 4 in a 13 player game. I would also assume the worst though, and that there IS a Serial Killer. So that leaves 9 Town, 1 Serial Killer, 3 Mafia. As for roles, I would hope there were 2, but that is random, and we can't really know.

If you were to read Mafia-II, you would see that while we are doing much worse than Mafia-I, we are all much nicer about it.  ;D So maybe it's not such a good thing. I'm addicted though (much like Robz), and follow every post on each of them.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 08:52:59 pm
Ahh, here we are again, Robz, Galzria, Voltgloss, and jotheonah. :)

MORGRIM IS MAFIA BECAUSE IT WORKED SO WELL THE LAST TIME oh wait

In all seriousness, the closed setup - and the vast array of roles that could be out there - leave me a bit at sea.  I mean, just taking a look at what the MafiaScum wiki calls the most common roles:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Roles (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Roles)

and my head is already spinning.  Vigilante Townies who can kill at night?  Bulletproof Serial Killers?  Millers who are innocent but get investigated as mafia?  Godfathers who are mafia but get investigated as innocent?  Yeesh.

Has anyone here played before in a large, closed game like this?  Any general comments from those experiences?

And Insomniac, here's a rules question:  When someone dies, is their alignment and/or role revealed?  (That's how it is in Mafia II, but I don't know how universal that is for forum Mafia.)

Good post. My assumption was: Mafia, Mafia RoleCop, Townie, and a possible combination of: Serial Killer, Cop, Jailkeeper, and Doctor. Can it be confirmed that Volt is right and there COULD be anything from the Wiki list quoted above?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on May 27, 2012, 08:56:44 pm
Wow godfather looks just insane, how fun would that be to play?  ;D .. and being a Miller would be oh so sad.

Got to admit, getting pretty excited just reading about possible roles on wiki. Maybe it is more fun with more power roles after all :)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 27, 2012, 08:58:53 pm
With so much overlap with Mafia II it's gonna be hard for those of us still alive to keep each other's behavior straight and separate in the two games. I think out of fairness to the new people we should try not to reference the other games unless it's really pertinent.

Oh I agree. Same holds for the Mafia-I people. My comment wasn't a reference to Mafia-II, rather to the fact that Robz is always up late and does a lot of his posting at night.

I was going to mention this--we just can't talk about the other games, and our behavior in them... at least until those games conclude. At that point, it might be useful information. I mean, you know, "Hey Voltgloss is playing differently, etc. etc..." could be helpful information. But it just isn't fair to discuss it until those games conclude, because that person can't defend his behavior without talking about the game, and that's illegal. Anyway, I doubt that discussion would even help us much in this first round, which is going to result in an even MORE random kill, since we have LESS info than usual.

I have played a lot of IRL mafia (never online until now), and I can do a post about some common roles I've heard of or seen. That mafiascum wiki page is a great starting place, although I know about a couple roles I haven't actually read on there. I'll do that post later (much later) tonight. As Galzria noted, I tend to post late at night (after midnight) and between noon and 5:00 PM.

In the meantime, it's probably most helpful if the new people make some posts so we can get a feel for how they behave.

And... I'm so excited for another mafia game! Welcome to everyone. (These forum games have coincided with my complete and utter collapse from a Level 42 great Dominion player to a level 37 only okay-ish Dominion player. I don't think the mafia games are to blame, as I started declining just before they started, but anyway, it's been nice to have something else to do as I try to figure out what is wrong with my Dominion game these days...)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 27, 2012, 09:03:21 pm
As my first game ever (real life or forum), this closed thing has me wondering what I've gotten myself into - so much reading to do!

Also - while I did re-open Mafia I for Pops because I got lucky and noticed the PM from him almost exactly @ 48 hours... I have company in town and will not be seriously active until Monday evening.

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 27, 2012, 09:03:50 pm
Is there a list of possible roles that could be present in this game? I have no idea what sort of behavior to look for or be suspicious of if I don't know what they could potentially be, and that wiki list is an awful lot to try and keep track of. But...I guess I've said before that I'm up for a challenge...

Anyway, I'm definitely excited to play with such a dynamic group! :D
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on May 27, 2012, 09:05:29 pm
Insomniac, another question:  What's our Day 1 deadline?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Grujah on May 27, 2012, 09:06:00 pm
and my head is already spinning.  Vigilante Townies who can kill at night?  Bulletproof Serial Killers?  Millers who are innocent but get investigated as mafia?  Godfathers who are mafia but get investigated as innocent?  Yeesh.

And here are some more, from ultimate warewolf:
http://boardgamegeek.com/filepage/35401/player-quick-reference-guide

There are expansions to Ultimate Warewolf as well, and my fav expansion card (though I never played with it) is a "Teenage Werewolf" who is who psyched to be werewolf that he must say the word "werewolf" during each day.  ;D Of course, for it to be useful at all, it has to have a chance of not showing up.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 09:06:43 pm
As my first game ever (real life or forum), this closed thing has me wondering what I've gotten myself into - so much reading to do!

Also - while I did re-open Mafia I for Pops because I got lucky and noticed the PM from him almost exactly @ 48 hours... I have company in town and will not be seriously active until Monday evening.

That's probably fine. Just check in every now and then and you shouldn't receive TOO much suspicion.  :P No, really though, I don't think we'll be ready to vote as a unit for 3-4 days at least, and possibly longer (I have to assume a larger game moves slower than a small one). So you shouldn't miss too much (although with how active this community is, I don't envy you the reading you'll have to do to get caught up).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 09:08:20 pm

And here are some more, from ultimate warewolf:
http://boardgamegeek.com/filepage/35401/player-quick-reference-guide

There are expansions to Ultimate Warewolf as well, and my fav expansion card (though I never played with it) is a "Teenage Werewolf" who is who psyched to be werewolf that he must say the word "werewolf" during each day.  ;D Of course, for it to be useful at all, it has to have a chance of not showing up.

Does that count as you saying "Werewolf" on day 1 then? <suspicious>
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 27, 2012, 09:10:03 pm
@Robz, I think mafia is absolutely responsible for my decline from up and coming Lvl 22 to rapidly plunging Lvl 14.

I think in general I'm going to post a little less in this game, just because there's SO MANY of us. But we'll see if I actually have the willpower to follow through on that.

Also, since Mafia II started I've been essentially unemployed, so lots of posting. But starting Tuesday I have a 9-5 job, so less so.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 27, 2012, 09:14:38 pm
Uh, yeah... let's all agree to do posts that are somewhat shorter than the Mafia II posts...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 09:15:14 pm
Uh, yeah... let's all agree to do posts that are somewhat shorter than the Mafia II posts...

No books?  ;)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on May 27, 2012, 09:24:26 pm
Uh, yeah... let's all agree to do posts that are somewhat shorter than the Mafia II posts...

Agreed.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 27, 2012, 09:27:03 pm
Uh, yeah... let's all agree to do posts that are somewhat shorter than the Mafia II posts...

No books?  ;)
No epistles? hahaha

I would bet that Duchess (the one that murdered pops and Axxle) has killed Insomniac too. The Duke is most likely somewhere in this homeless shelter.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 09:29:59 pm
Uh, yeah... let's all agree to do posts that are somewhat shorter than the Mafia II posts...

No books?  ;)
No epistles? hahaha

I would bet that Duchess (the one that murdered pops and Axxle) has killed Insomniac too. The Duke is most likely somewhere in this homeless shelter.

+1 for word usage.

Sadly, as far as I can tell, none of us are Duke's. I haven't checked def, O, or eHalcyon though.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 27, 2012, 09:32:08 pm
Already lots of conversation... I read bits and pieces of both Mafia I and II but didn't fully keep up.

Closed game format is daunting.  :o

Is there any "required reading" I should look into, being a mafia newbie?  I mean, I've played some IRL but not a lot, and never online.

And on the Serial Killer role -- that one kills every night, alongside the Mafia, right?  So even though it's a closed game, we should know by tomorrow.  Right?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on May 27, 2012, 09:33:01 pm
Uh, yeah... let's all agree to do posts that are somewhat shorter than the Mafia II posts...

No books?  ;)
No epistles? hahaha

I would bet that Duchess (the one that murdered pops and Axxle) has killed Insomniac too. The Duke is most likely somewhere in this homeless shelter.

+1 for word usage.

Sadly, as far as I can tell, none of us are Duke's. I haven't checked def, O, or eHalcyon though.
Highly suspicious of Morgrim now, conspiring against the town!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 09:33:55 pm
Already lots of conversation... I read bits and pieces of both Mafia I and II but didn't fully keep up.

Closed game format is daunting.  :o

Is there any "required reading" I should look into, being a mafia newbie?  I mean, I've played some IRL but not a lot, and never online.

And on the Serial Killer role -- that one kills every night, alongside the Mafia, right?  So even though it's a closed game, we should know by tomorrow.  Right?

Assuming the Killer and/or Victim are not Jailed. Or the victim healed by the Doctor. Or (and I haven't fully read up on other roles) some other crazy thing.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 27, 2012, 09:34:04 pm
You'd think living in shelters we would have some inkling of what they are for! Perhaps there are ruins somewhere nearby??? Anyway it does appear that we have entered some pretty Dark Ages. :-\ I don't mind begging for sticks so much having to fear for my life is going a bit too far!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 27, 2012, 09:34:27 pm
Uh, yeah... let's all agree to do posts that are somewhat shorter than the Mafia II posts...

No books?  ;)
No epistles? hahaha

I would bet that Duchess (the one that murdered pops and Axxle) has killed Insomniac too. The Duke is most likely somewhere in this homeless shelter.

+1 for word usage.

Sadly, as far as I can tell, none of us are Duke's. I haven't checked def, O, or eHalcyon though.
You keep postin' Galzria...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 27, 2012, 09:35:18 pm
Already lots of conversation... I read bits and pieces of both Mafia I and II but didn't fully keep up.

Closed game format is daunting.  :o

Is there any "required reading" I should look into, being a mafia newbie?  I mean, I've played some IRL but not a lot, and never online.

And on the Serial Killer role -- that one kills every night, alongside the Mafia, right?  So even though it's a closed game, we should know by tomorrow.  Right?

We should. Edge cases:

SK and mafia target the same person, jailkeeper blocks one or both of them (randomly), mafia kills the SK (randomly (actually, if that happens, does the SK still get his kill? Insomniac?)), other night role that can kill like vigilante, multiple mafia families.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 27, 2012, 09:35:23 pm
Already lots of conversation... I read bits and pieces of both Mafia I and II but didn't fully keep up.

Closed game format is daunting.  :o

Is there any "required reading" I should look into, being a mafia newbie?  I mean, I've played some IRL but not a lot, and never online.

And on the Serial Killer role -- that one kills every night, alongside the Mafia, right?  So even though it's a closed game, we should know by tomorrow.  Right?

Assuming the Killer and/or Victim are not Jailed. Or the victim healed by the Doctor. Or (and I haven't fully read up on other roles) some other crazy thing.
Or the Serial Killer chooses not to kill that night, right?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 09:35:31 pm
Highly suspicious of Morgrim now, conspiring against the town!

Nah. As a fellow Solo-Challenge host, Morgrim is too nice to be Mafia.  ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on May 27, 2012, 09:37:45 pm
Highly suspicious of Morgrim now, conspiring against the town!

Nah. As a fellow Solo-Challenge host, Morgrim is too nice to be Mafia.  ;D ;D ;D
You really should be willing to explore other options too, though.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 09:38:25 pm
You keep postin' Galzria...

Wait... what comes after Explorer!?! Uh-oh. Maybe I need to keep quiet before I indict myself.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 27, 2012, 09:38:45 pm
Highly suspicious of Morgrim now, conspiring against the town!

Nah. As a fellow Solo-Challenge host, Morgrim is too nice to be Mafia.  ;D ;D ;D
Do not worry, I do not suspect you for calling me nice this time. ;)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 27, 2012, 09:38:59 pm
Highly suspicious of Morgrim now, conspiring against the town!

Nah. As a fellow Solo-Challenge host, Morgrim is too nice to be Mafia.  ;D ;D ;D
You really should be willing to explore other options too, though.
Trying to salvage some useful discussion out of this?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 27, 2012, 09:39:40 pm
Highly suspicious of Morgrim now, conspiring against the town!

Nah. As a fellow Solo-Challenge host, Morgrim is too nice to be Mafia.  ;D ;D ;D
Do not worry, I do not suspect you for calling me nice this time. ;)
They're working together!!

:P
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 27, 2012, 09:41:10 pm
Ok, I've never used an avatar on this board, but I think I might get one. That will make it slightly easier to keep all these voices straight. (hint, hint to everybody else)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 27, 2012, 09:42:04 pm
Ok, I've never used an avatar on this board, but I think I might get one. That will make it slightly easier to keep all these voices straight. (hint, hint to everybody else)
I'm ahead of the curve 8)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 27, 2012, 09:42:32 pm
Ok, I've never used an avatar on this board, but I think I might get one. That will make it slightly easier to keep all these voices straight. (hint, hint to everybody else)
I'm ahead of the curve 8)
But yeah, I agree it sounds like a good idea.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 27, 2012, 09:44:27 pm
Ok, I've never used an avatar on this board, but I think I might get one. That will make it slightly easier to keep all these voices straight. (hint, hint to everybody else)
You are right. Where can I get a good download for a Dominion card, say, Haggler?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 27, 2012, 09:46:37 pm
http://dominion.diehrstraits.com/?card=haggler
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 27, 2012, 09:47:10 pm
That's where I got the artwork for Wharf, then just cropped it.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 27, 2012, 09:49:05 pm
Ok, I've never used an avatar on this board, but I think I might get one. That will make it slightly easier to keep all these voices straight. (hint, hint to everybody else)

Putting a dominion card as my avatar is risky! A lot of the cool ones could make me look suspicious! :P

*rules out Scheme, Swindler, Mountebank and most every other attack card*
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 27, 2012, 09:49:19 pm
Looks like this is a bit higher quality, but when reduced to avatar size I don't think it'll matter too much.
http://www.dominiondeck.com/cards/haggler
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on May 27, 2012, 09:50:01 pm
Ok, I've never used an avatar on this board, but I think I might get one. That will make it slightly easier to keep all these voices straight. (hint, hint to everybody else)

Putting a dominion card as my avatar is risky! A lot of the cool ones could make me look suspicious! :P

*rules out Scheme, Swindler, Mountebank and most every other attack card*
I hope I look innocent enough?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 09:51:28 pm
Hmm, Avatars are a good idea. Who's idea was that? +1 to someone.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 09:51:52 pm
Hmm, Avatars are a good idea. Who's idea was that? +1 to someone.

Aww, crap. I'm the Duke. POST POST POST POST POST.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 27, 2012, 09:51:56 pm
Ok, I've never used an avatar on this board, but I think I might get one. That will make it slightly easier to keep all these voices straight. (hint, hint to everybody else)

Putting a dominion card as my avatar is risky! A lot of the cool ones could make me look suspicious! :P

*rules out Scheme, Swindler, Mountebank and most every other attack card*
I hope I look innocent enough?
Too cute and cuddly, clearly overcompensating for how nefarious you really are.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 27, 2012, 09:52:39 pm
Hmm, Avatars are a good idea. Who's idea was that? +1 to someone.
Speaking of, it looks like yours isn't working--I'm seeing the symbol indicating a bad image link...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 27, 2012, 09:53:21 pm
Hmm, Avatars are a good idea. Who's idea was that? +1 to someone.

I am a candle.  Bask in my light, ye folks of the Dark.   

Galzria, your image appears to be broken.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 09:53:54 pm
Hmm, Avatars are a good idea. Who's idea was that? +1 to someone.

I am a candle.  Bask in my light, ye folks of the Dark.   

Galzria, your image appears to be broken.

Trying to fix
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 27, 2012, 09:54:25 pm
It was my idea. I claim your +1. Also I can't figure out what size and file type this thing needs to be.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 09:55:43 pm
Hmm, Avatars are a good idea. Who's idea was that? +1 to someone.

I am a candle.  Bask in my light, ye folks of the Dark.   

Galzria, your image appears to be broken.

Trying to fix

Fix? No fix...  :'(
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 27, 2012, 09:56:07 pm
It was my idea. I claim your +1. Also I can't figure out what size and file type this thing needs to be.

I believe it resizes automatically, and it should accept most image types.  Mine is a PNG.  I didn't upload though.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 27, 2012, 09:56:33 pm
It was my idea. I claim your +1. Also I can't figure out what size and file type this thing needs to be.
Small, and image. I'm so helpful...

OK I've checked mine now, it's a 152x152 jpeg.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 27, 2012, 09:57:32 pm
Hai guys!

I'm back from a backpacking Trip.

I'm not mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 27, 2012, 09:59:31 pm
Ok, I've never used an avatar on this board, but I think I might get one. That will make it slightly easier to keep all these voices straight. (hint, hint to everybody else)

Putting a dominion card as my avatar is risky! A lot of the cool ones could make me look suspicious! :P

*rules out Scheme, Swindler, Mountebank and most every other attack card*
I hope I look innocent enough?

For now, yes...but tell me, Eevee, do you tend to be happy at night time? Hmmmm??

http://www.serebii.net/pokedex-bw/197.shtml
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 27, 2012, 09:59:46 pm
Hai guys!

I'm back from a backpacking Trip.

I'm not mafia.
No one can afford backpacking or taking trips in these dark times! Except maybe someone with mafia connections...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 10:02:08 pm
Ok, I can live with this logo. Oh, and O's Mafia. 100%. As noted, not only could nobody afford backpacking trips without Mafia connections, anybody who DID go backpacking would have EASY access to a STICK. O is Mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 27, 2012, 10:05:59 pm
If it's any defense, the second day of the trip was cancelled due to heavy snow. I learned something important: Don't backpack in heavy snowfall.

 
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 27, 2012, 10:10:03 pm
Learning is also something that doesn't happen in these dark ages. You just keeping digging yourself a bigger hole ;D
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 27, 2012, 10:10:31 pm
(but seriously, yeah backpacking in heavy snowfall sounds unpleasant)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 27, 2012, 10:10:57 pm
Ok, Avatar'd and ready to go.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 27, 2012, 10:12:51 pm
Can't...get...avatar...to...work....

100x100? Or something else?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 27, 2012, 10:14:23 pm
I finally just uploaded it to tinypic and plugged in the url.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 27, 2012, 10:17:03 pm
But enough of this technical talk. Let's get to the finger-pointing. Galzria seems awfully anxious to get this thing off the ground, throwin his accusations round and round. Suspicious character right there.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 27, 2012, 10:17:16 pm
I finally just uploaded it to tinypic and plugged in the url.

Thanks! Worked perfectly!

....unless you were just trying to get on my good side...  ???
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 27, 2012, 10:19:05 pm
Obviously. Making friends is the most important thing in mafia. The object of the game is to have the most friends.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 10:21:32 pm
But enough of this technical talk. Let's get to the finger-pointing. Galzria seems awfully anxious to get this thing off the ground, throwin his accusations round and round. Suspicious character right there.

Oh I'll never deny being suspicious. Mafia like to keep suspicious people around. The longer I can avoid lynching from the town itself, while still staying suspicious enough in the Mafia's eyes to warrant value, the better the town will do overall in the end since they have a guaranteed +1 vote on their side.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 10:23:02 pm
But enough of this technical talk. Let's get to the finger-pointing. Galzria seems awfully anxious to get this thing off the ground, throwin his accusations round and round. Suspicious character right there.

Oh I'll never deny being suspicious. Mafia like to keep suspicious people around. The longer I can avoid lynching from the town itself, while still staying suspicious enough in the Mafia's eyes to warrant value, the better the town will do overall in the end since they have a guaranteed +1 vote on their side.

Besides, isn't being suspicious more fun than being boring? And I think we've all learned that the Mafia are the most boring unsuspecting people. So who here has been the LEAST suspicious. I point my finger at them.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 27, 2012, 10:50:02 pm
Obviously. Making friends is the most important thing in mafia. The object of the game is to have the most friends.

*narrows eyes Leonardo DiCaprio style*
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 27, 2012, 10:52:55 pm
Obviously. Making friends is the most important thing in mafia. The object of the game is to have the most friends.

*narrows eyes Leonardo DiCaprio style*
Ooh, he's pretty good at this game. Or at least, he was the second time he played. [/Scorsese references]
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 27, 2012, 10:57:32 pm
Is there a place to get a pic that you do not need to give away info?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 27, 2012, 10:59:12 pm
Google image search with link to picture? That's what I did.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 27, 2012, 11:05:31 pm
Is there a place to get a pic that you do not need to give away info?

Your current image is broken because you're not linking to the actual image file.  Try this:

http://dominion.diehrstraits.com/scans/hinterlands/haggler.jpg

But it's not going to be cropped...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 27, 2012, 11:18:08 pm
Sorry to sound ignorant, bu how do I crop this?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 27, 2012, 11:26:27 pm
Download it, if you're on a Mac use Preview, on a PC you can just use Paint. Then you'll have to re-upload it.

There might be some place online to crop it, but I don't know of any off the top of my head.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on May 27, 2012, 11:59:09 pm
Oh I'll never deny being suspicious. Mafia like to keep suspicious people around. The longer I can avoid lynching from the town itself, while still staying suspicious enough in the Mafia's eyes to warrant value, the better the town will do overall in the end since they have a guaranteed +1 vote on their side.

Trying to walk a fine line between the Town and the Mafia, eh?  What role does THAT sound like?  :)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 28, 2012, 12:06:51 am
Oh I'll never deny being suspicious. Mafia like to keep suspicious people around. The longer I can avoid lynching from the town itself, while still staying suspicious enough in the Mafia's eyes to warrant value, the better the town will do overall in the end since they have a guaranteed +1 vote on their side.

Trying to walk a fine line between the Town and the Mafia, eh?  What role does THAT sound like?  :)

I'm sure I don't know. ;) But since I'm the Duke, and I'm outside the jurisdiction of Kingdoms in Mafia-I and Mafia-II, I fully acknowledge that I am the murderer of Popsofctown and Axxle. All other deaths I'm innocent of (including the most recent, Insomniac). I just can't help it! The Duchess and I are in love, and they kept stealing her away. We came to this Shanty Town together, thinking if we abandoned all our worldly Possessions, we would finally be left in piece!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 28, 2012, 12:21:08 am
Oh, well. Paint is not working, not letting me upload it. It was worth a shot, though.

Back to Mafia. The Duchess must be the murderer of Insomniac.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 28, 2012, 12:26:15 am
Oh, well. Paint is not working, not letting me upload it. It was worth a shot, though.

Back to Mafia. The Duchess must be the murderer of Insomniac.

I'll have to talk with her...

In all honesty, I'm just keeping things light until everyone has had a chance to check in. The list of names is daunting to keep track of, but I think we still haven't heard from def or yuma. Don't wanna jump in too much until everyone is on the same page. Plus, I want to hear back from Insomniac on earlier setup questions.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 28, 2012, 12:34:13 am
Oh, well. Paint is not working, not letting me upload it. It was worth a shot, though.

Back to Mafia. The Duchess must be the murderer of Insomniac.

Nah, Paint works fine.  Here:

http://i46.tinypic.com/2v823y0.png

 :)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on May 28, 2012, 12:35:00 am
Ahh, here we are again, Robz, Galzria, Voltgloss, and jotheonah. :)

MORGRIM IS MAFIA BECAUSE IT WORKED SO WELL THE LAST TIME oh wait

In all seriousness, the closed setup - and the vast array of roles that could be out there - leave me a bit at sea.  I mean, just taking a look at what the MafiaScum wiki calls the most common roles:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Roles (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Roles)

and my head is already spinning.  Vigilante Townies who can kill at night?  Bulletproof Serial Killers?  Millers who are innocent but get investigated as mafia?  Godfathers who are mafia but get investigated as innocent?  Yeesh.

Has anyone here played before in a large, closed game like this?  Any general comments from those experiences?

And Insomniac, here's a rules question:  When someone dies, is their alignment and/or role revealed?  (That's how it is in Mafia II, but I don't know how universal that is for forum Mafia.)

Yes

Deadline: 1 Week So June 3

Jotheonah
Quote
We should. Edge cases:

SK and mafia target the same person, jailkeeper blocks one or both of them (randomly), mafia kills the SK (randomly (actually, if that happens, does the SK still get his kill? Insomniac?)), other night role that can kill like vigilante, multiple mafia families.

Yes
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 28, 2012, 12:40:47 am
Oh, well. Paint is not working, not letting me upload it. It was worth a shot, though.

Back to Mafia. The Duchess must be the murderer of Insomniac.

Nah, Paint works fine.  Here:

http://i46.tinypic.com/2v823y0.png

 :)
Thanks!!!!!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 28, 2012, 12:42:23 am
Insomniac, while you're on, can we get clarification on roles? At least a pool of everything that COULD be in the game? It seems there are a ton on the wiki link most of us don't even know to watch for.

Also, do we know how many Mafia there are (so we can avoid putting anybody in a hammer situation)?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on May 28, 2012, 12:53:36 am
will be spending the next 26 hours (sadly not a typo) travelling via plane, will need the wireless on air to work to be able to post. (dont know if this was a necessary announcement, a part of me just wanted to whine about having a 26 hour flight (two stopovers though, i guess airports. usually have internets these days)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on May 28, 2012, 01:00:51 am
There are 3 Mafia.

I will not list the roles that are available but there is nothing too crazy I promise.

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch

(13) Everyone - Not Voting
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 28, 2012, 04:02:39 am
There are 3 Mafia.

I will not list the roles that are available but there is nothing too crazy I promise.

With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch

(13) Everyone - Not Voting

Cool! Okay, here are some thoughts on roles and such:

We have 13 people minus 3 mafia. That leaves 10 people. I would guess that at least half of them--maybe exactly half--have to be vanillas. They don't have to be, I suppose, but that's my guess. That leaves 5 people with unspecified special roles. Also, I assume one of the mafia is a specialty role, like Mafia Rolecop.

Jailkeeper, Doctor, Cop: These are the roles that have been used in the other games. I think people are pretty familiar with them. I doubt we have all 3 in the game--they are rather strong--but possibly 2 of them. There are also twists on them, like the Mad Doctor, who kills his target 50% of the time rather than saving it. Who knows if Insomniac went that route.

Doublevoter: This is a weak-ish, but cool, special role. The Doublevoter gets to cast 2 votes during the lynch. Depending on how Insomniac structures it, it can be really easy to figure out who the DV is, making him sort of an obvious mafia target, but... it's interesting.

Shield: Or any other role where the person gets one free "life" in the night. We might have something like that.

Lovers or Couples: I've played with these people once. There are 2 of them. They know who each other are. When one dies, they both die (either during lynch or at night). Other than that, they are just townies. The good thing for them is that they have someone they know they can trust, so they have more info right off the bat. The problem for them is they really have to watch out for each other, and if one says, "I am one of the Couple!" it's really easy for the mafia to score a free double kill in the night.

Serial Killer, Mole, WhatHaveYou: I doubt we have this, if there are truly 2 mafia. 4 killing bad guys seems like a lot. But maybe! These people are part of their own faction and generally have to survive to the end. Neither the mafia nor the town can win until the Killer dies.

Vigilante: This is a townie night killer. He gets to kill someone in the night. He wants to go after people he suspects, obviously, or not use his power. If we have 3 mafia and no other killing role, this might be a logical inclusion.

Those are some of my thoughts. I am sure there are like a million other possibilities.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 28, 2012, 07:47:08 am
There's also Miller, a townie who reads as a mafia when investigated. Some people suggest claiming right off the bat is good Miller play, though it can also get you lynched day one.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: yuma on May 28, 2012, 08:49:55 am
Wow, first day of playing and there are already 3 new pages of info to read. Not sure what I got myself into here.

Thought I would check in and say hi fellow townspeople. Great idea on the avatars. I already had one. As you can see it is of a shark attached to a balloon chasing scientist. Isn't science fun?

My hope for this game is to be as clear as possible in my communication as such I think I'll end each post with this: who I suspect, who I don't suspect and who I am voting for, if anyone. Anyone else not mentioned is neutral (to keeps things simpler I am always going to include myself in the neutral position).

Suspect: No one
Don't suspect: No one
Vote: none
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 28, 2012, 09:49:58 am
Wow, first day of playing and there are already 3 new pages of info to read. Not sure what I got myself into here.

The good news is that it was 2 pages of avatar discussion - I am now avatar'd up as well.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: def on May 28, 2012, 10:56:14 am
Oh guys, what have I gotten into here? I went to bed yesterday when the thing hasn't even started, and now it's 3 or 4 pages already. At least mostly no 1000-words posts, but I'm sure that's soon to follow.

For the avatar thing - if everyone of you got one, I'm distinguished by having none. :)

For newbie advice: do you think it's better to get an overview of what mass of roles are possible, or of only the most common ones, or don't care at all? The twists Robz posted, like mad doctor, and other things I read on the wiki, like (in)sanity, leave me confused, because this way you can't be sure of anything?
But I'm pretty sure that if this is a true Dominion-Mafia game, there just has to be a Jack-of-all-trades (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Jack-of-all-trades)!
Or a Goon, Governor, Oracle and Thief.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: def on May 28, 2012, 04:11:00 pm
Yeah, sure, and when I'm here, nobody talks AT ALL. Which timezones are you in? I'm GMT+1.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 28, 2012, 04:15:00 pm
U.S.A. Central time here.
The reason why nobody has been talking is, well, there is nothing to say.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 28, 2012, 04:17:29 pm
GMT-6 (Mountain Standard Time).

More newbie advice requests -- a quick overview of the lingo, please?  In Mafia I and II people talk about bandwagons and hammers being dropped, which I understand from having read a few of the articles on the mafiascum wiki.  Are there other terms we should know?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on May 28, 2012, 04:19:38 pm
we have to get the ball rolling somehow though. i just dont have any suspicions yet, everyone seems friendly and townish.. false security?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 28, 2012, 04:19:53 pm
Yeah, sure, and when I'm here, nobody talks AT ALL. Which timezones are you in? I'm GMT+1.

Sorry, you missed the party. If my Avatar doesn't give it away, I live about 15 minutes from DougZ.  (Sunnyvale, CA here).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 28, 2012, 06:59:29 pm
Dear Journal,
Not much talk in the town today. Everything seems so calm; there seems to be no suspicion about anyone. No idea who is Mafia yet, so us townies must be on our guard. The Duke and Duchess are curently residing at the Baron's Estate.
Today I was asked by the Alchemist to be his Apprentice, but I declined. There is too much going on  with the murder and all, and I think th only reason why the Alchemist wants an Apprentice is because he wants someone to look after his Apothecary shop so he can take a vacation on an Island. Earned 5 Coppers today from the Coppersmith...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 28, 2012, 07:54:41 pm
US Eastern time here (GMT -5?)

It does indeed seem pretty quiet.  I'm assuming that its because of the long weekend and most of us were probably eating burgers and enjoying life outside.  Hopefully it will be more exciting tomorrow.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 28, 2012, 10:49:37 pm
Day 1 is the worst. You have no real option but to poke at molehills until you see a mountain, which you almost certainly made up. But suggest not killing someone and boy do you get jumped on ;)

But there are strategies. Pick somebody, hard target them, shake them up, see what they say or do. Skimming some mafia scum games, I expect the game will be more fun if we all play boldly. Don't let yourself get so terrified of being the day 1 lynch that you don't talk or take any risks.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 28, 2012, 11:51:26 pm
I say we kill Robz... out of sympathy for him. He's in too many of these anyways.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 28, 2012, 11:58:47 pm
I say we kill Robz... out of sympathy for him. He's in too many of these anyways.

My +1 is for the joke, not because I want to kill Robz.

But maybe we should kill Robz...

Aside: Um, hey, what are all your preferred pronouns?  I don't want to refer to someone as "he" when she is a "she".  Or even an "it", if it prefers.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 29, 2012, 12:19:59 am
I say we kill Robz... out of sympathy for him. He's in too many of these anyways.

Blatantly stolen argument from another game. O is a bandwagon'er. Kill him:

 
Uh, why?

Because you're too crafty for your own good.
And anybody who can be involved in Mafia-I, Mafia-II, Mafia-III, Resistance, AND Isodom 5 can't be trusted.
 ;)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 29, 2012, 12:21:16 am
Ok. No more cross-game posting for me. Even in complete jest.  8)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on May 29, 2012, 01:33:12 am
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch - Deadline July 3, 2012
Not voting(13) - Everyone
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on May 29, 2012, 01:48:49 am
having this many players makes lynching really hard (how are we supposed to get 7 of us to vote for someone when there is 0 information about anyone). i dont expect anyone to claim any roles out of thin air either (i mean please dont, sounds like a terrible play to me) so i guess everyone should make semi-meaningless posts like this until someone says something suspicious? idk, lynching anyone feels soo far away right now but obviously we have to kill someone.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 29, 2012, 01:53:37 am
I once again claim Jester.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 29, 2012, 02:02:56 am
having this many players makes lynching really hard (how are we supposed to get 7 of us to vote for someone when there is 0 information about anyone). i dont expect anyone to claim any roles out of thin air either (i mean please dont, sounds like a terrible play to me) so i guess everyone should make semi-meaningless posts like this until someone says something suspicious? idk, lynching anyone feels soo far away right now but obviously we have to kill someone.
Basically. The first person to die will be someone who had the strongest straw-man case brought against them. Rarely will that be Mafia. What we learn, is how/when people voted. Why they made the case for/against. Did they say one thing but do another?

Example of Mafia move:

"My case against X is A, B, and C. I've just got a strong feeling, they've been playing suspicious all game. I'm ready to vote whenever (or at listed time)"

That sets up being able to drop the lynch vote, while having the defense "Well, I said I was going to". Always a Mafia move? Of course not. But we need to watch closely for any hedging. Don't let people present a possible defense before they're ever suspected of guilt. Make them own their words.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 29, 2012, 09:59:46 am
So - @ the risk of looking suspicious, and in the interest of getting things started rather than another few days of poking, I just searched the thread for the post counts. (Disclaimer - this includes pregame posts)

Username   Post Count (5/29)
Galzria   37
michaeljb   23
jotheonah   15
Morgrim7   12
MrEevee   11
Dsell   11
Robz   10
Voltgloss   9
O   9
eHalcyon   9
Captain_Frisk   4
def   3
yuma   2

Using this as reference: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=How_to_Win_as_Mafia:_Calculated_Inaction

I am going to VOTE: Galzria, based purely on his higher than average post count.

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on May 29, 2012, 10:09:05 am
my read of galzrias general forum behaviour is that he is just a talkative person and likes to post a lot, so i wouldnt hold that against him. i'd actually go for an entirely opposite direction and propose lynching you, def or yuma. how can we know anything about a guy who isnt willing to help us by posting?
Vote: yuma, just to make the quiet people feel the heat & realize they need to come out of their shell.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 29, 2012, 10:21:57 am
my read of galzrias general forum behaviour is that he is just a talkative person and likes to post a lot, so i wouldnt hold that against him. i'd actually go for an entirely opposite direction and propose lynching you, def or yuma. how can we know anything about a guy who isnt willing to help us by posting?
Vote: yuma, just to make the quiet people feel the heat & realize they need to come out of their shell.

I had actually considered doing the same - but I'm willing to give a pass for weekends in general, and long weekends especially.  There also wasn't a whole lot to discuss - although hopefully this changes now!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 29, 2012, 10:42:09 am
Dear Journal,
The town exploded todey after the secret meeting. At the meeting, all of us townies voted on who to publicly lynch. Now, there are two votes already and I can feel more coming. And just to think, we were all so quiet before! Best not wallow in our grief, though, we must be prepared for hard times to come. The two votes cast today were as follows: The Duke, who murdered Axxle and popsofctown, and another person (of whom I do not know the loyalties[by that I mean loyalty to us, the Townies, or the mafia]) who has not spoken much.
I will remain non-voting for the moment, at least until I have more information. I find I unwise to jump to any conclusions at present.
With the five Coppers I earned yesterday I have decided to buy a Merchant Ship. When it comes in, I should be at least two coins richer. I have also decided to ask the Alchemist if he will look over declining his Apprenticeship yesterday. I think now that bed and board may be invaluable; I do not feel right in this homeless shelter...something sinister resides here...the Mafia...us townies need to avoid them...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 29, 2012, 11:29:32 am
In the interest of generating more discussion (so us townies can start getting reads on everyone) I'm also going to vote: yuma.

Hopefully this works in generating some talk, I'm sure things will be more interesting once stuff is actually happening.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 29, 2012, 11:34:44 am
So - @ the risk of looking suspicious, and in the interest of getting things started rather than another few days of poking, I just searched the thread for the post counts. (Disclaimer - this includes pregame posts)

Username   Post Count (5/29)
Galzria   37
michaeljb   23
jotheonah   15
Morgrim7   12
MrEevee   11
Dsell   11
Robz   10
Voltgloss   9
O   9
eHalcyon   9
Captain_Frisk   4
def   3
yuma   2

Using this as reference: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=How_to_Win_as_Mafia:_Calculated_Inaction

I am going to VOTE: Galzria, based purely on his higher than average post count.

Oh man. If I'm gonna be guilty for talking a lot, I'll never make it past the first rounds of these games.  ;) On the other hand, Whooo! First vote baby!  ;D

Honestly, Eevee has the right of it. My posts per day is at 5.7, and the only person I can think of off hand that comes up higher is WW. So yeah. Not to mention my closing in on 14 days logged online since I registered on March 26, 2012, 02:35:18 pm. Yikes.  ??? ??? ???

Anyway, rest assured, I most certainly am not Mafia. Though I really wish I WAS in this game... With so many juicy targets to go after...  ;D
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on May 29, 2012, 11:35:00 am
Haven't had time yet to read everything in full, but I am a tad worried about VOTES being cast around so quickly.  Suspicions are fine, even strong suspicions, but do we really want to have votes on the table so soon?  Are we not worried about votes piling in so quickly that the Mafia are able to sneak the hammer on a Townie before we really get the discussion going?

Yes, Day 1 is the hardest day to lynch Mafia because we're flying so blind, but moving quickly to a lynch doesn't seem the right approach to me.  Rather, get some suspicions out there, and then see how people react.  Maybe, just maybe, you'll see something in the way people react that could up the chance of your lynch target being Mafia.

And even if we DON'T hit Mafia on day 1, we'll still have generated a decent log of chatter that could prove useful for us going forward.  Y'know, like on day 2 or 3 when someone might be wondering "hmm, maybe X and Y are part of the Mafia team," the more posts we have from X and Y the better we can analyze that.  But if we move too quickly through Day 1 we deny ourselves the chance to get some substantive posting in Day 1.

With that in mind, my suspicions currently weigh towards those who have voted early - Captain Frisk, eevee, and michaeljb.  Why vote so early, rather than simply expressing strong suspicions?  Won't expressing strong suspicions generate the same level of discussion from/about your targets, without risking the possibility of an accidental bandwagon getting hammered by the Mafia?  (Note that there's a two-vote bandwagon ALREADY!  Bandwagons can ramp up surprisingly fast!)  Those are the questions I'd like to hear answered, and others' thoughts as well. 

Also FYI, I will be very busy due to work from now to tomorrow night (EDT) and so probably unable to post substantively again until then.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 29, 2012, 12:05:23 pm
Well I figured 7 votes is quite a few for a lynch, I didn't really think there was much chance of a bandwagon piling up too quickly and yuma getting lynched before much discussion happened--but as you say Voltgloss, "Bandwagons can ramp up surprisingly fast!". I'm just gonna say I don't know how true this is, I've played Mafia a few times IRL, and this is my first forum game so I don't have a good feel for how quickly a bandwagon can get going. If it gets out of hand before we've heard from yuma I'll unvote.

Obviously I don't want yuma to get lynched before having a chance to defend himself, and I really didn't think the chance of that was high by casting only the second vote.

As I said, I was hoping to generate more discussion, which has worked! Sort of (you at least now have reason to be suspicious of a few people so we have something to work with now, even though I didn't really get my desired result of the less talkative posting--though to be fair on that front it's only been half an hour since I voted :P ).

Anyway, once we hear from yuma I'll happily unvote, maybe for my intended goal def would have been a better voting target to avoid this bandwagon issue. I won't unvote right away though--with only 2 of 7 needed votes, I still see the lynching as a ways off, and we haven't heard from yuma yet.

Maybe expressing strong suspicions will generate the same level of discussion, but I do doubt it would have the same impact as vote--heck, it's stirred up more discussion from you than suspicion would have, right? Yours seems to be the first really substantive post we've had, and that's good for us townies, isn't it?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 29, 2012, 12:12:16 pm
Agreed with MichaelJB - actually voting is going to bring out more talk than vague suspicion. 

I also researched some outside f.ds mafia games to determine whether or not early voting was or was not uncommon.  After scouting 3 threads - I figured early voting was not out of line... here's an example: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=22046

Of course, I because both Michael and Eevee both voted for yuma, I suspect them!  Michael for being the #2 poster and bandwagoning. 

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: def on May 29, 2012, 12:47:32 pm
Of course, I because both Michael and Eevee both voted for yuma, I suspect them!  Michael for being the #2 poster and bandwagoning.

So I'll just suspect you for suspecting them for voting early, that sounds nice. :)

Consent in the other games so far was that not lynching first day gives the mafia a free kill and we have the same situation again the next day, apart from information some roles could gather, so no use to do so.
If we can get a discussion going to create some suspicion, good, if not, it's still best play to lynch randomly to create information. A bit bandwagoning, while risky, might help here, because with one vote, noone feels forced to react, but with two or three, maybe. Is there anything wrong with this reasoning?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 29, 2012, 12:53:19 pm
I'm gonna suspect Voltgloss because he gave "reasons" to be quieter and not say much for the next day and a half, allowing for the town to dig it's own holes.

I'm not buying the convenient "I'll be busy with work until tomorrow night". I demand the truth!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 29, 2012, 12:58:37 pm
Well don't know if there's much I can say to defend myself here that I didn't already say--I voted yuma because for having the lowest post count, but like I said def probably would have been the better choice to avoid the bandwagon issue, while still calling out the quiet ones.

As I understand it, changing my vote once a little pressure is applied to me isn't the right move (don't the Mafia like to be crowd-pleasers to avoid suspicion?), so I'll stick with it until we hear something from yuma.

If I were mafia (I'm not :) ) I feel that it would be pretty poor play to bandwagon this early--I just voted for yuma hoping to get some activity; Mafia would want to get yuma lynched, and I honestly didn't think my second vote was very threatening to that end (though I am inexperienced and as Voltgloss said bandwagons can build quickly, so the idea that the second vote is no big deal could just be me being noobish). Wouldn't it be more prudent for the Mafia to wait until someone already has a few votes on them before they join in?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 29, 2012, 01:06:03 pm
Haven't had time yet to read everything in full, but I am a tad worried about VOTES being cast around so quickly.  Suspicions are fine, even strong suspicions, but do we really want to have votes on the table so soon?  Are we not worried about votes piling in so quickly that the Mafia are able to sneak the hammer on a Townie before we really get the discussion going?

Some people may want to vote quickly so that we don't end up having to read novels before we have any real information.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 29, 2012, 01:20:34 pm
Haven't had time yet to read everything in full, but I am a tad worried about VOTES being cast around so quickly.  Suspicions are fine, even strong suspicions, but do we really want to have votes on the table so soon?  Are we not worried about votes piling in so quickly that the Mafia are able to sneak the hammer on a Townie before we really get the discussion going?

Some people may want to vote quickly so that we don't end up having to read novels before we have any real information.

Hey! Better to read 'em than to write 'em.  :-\

In all seriousness, (and more in response to Michael), as my first ever game (RL or Forums) is into day 3 (Mafia-II), I've learned 3 big things:

The "I'm new" argument, doesn't work so well. The game is pretty straight forward. Don't read too much into hard strategy. This game is about instinct and constant analyzing.

The only person who actually knows what their assigned role is, is the person themselves. All we can do as outside observers is take our best guess. But be aware of how and WHAT somebody who is accused is saying. Because if they are innocent, they were working with that piece of information the whole time.

Lastly, people like to make strawman cases. It's the best way early to nettle people. Like calling you out for bandwagoning. At this point, it really isn't an issue, as you've noted. But never get defensive! Defensive play feels negative, and will just bring more/harsher criticism, often unwarranted.

Oh, and DON'T lie. Town or Mafia, that'll get you lynched real quick. Everything you post can be cross-referenced with what you posted before. People won't let you slide.

Ok, done writing "Galzria's tips to Mafia".  ::)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: yuma on May 29, 2012, 01:33:09 pm
Wow, quick post since I am at work and can't spend too much time.

Not really sure what to say other than I have been busy with school, but that isn't super likely to change.

I will certainly try to post more and be more active, but I don't have all day to be on the forum. That was one of my main apprehensions about joining the game, but felt that I would be alright as some said they wanted the game to be less wordy than the other two Mafia games currently going.

I too am a bit surprised by VOTES?! Suspicions make sense, but votes? I guess it makes sense if the idea was to get me to respond. But I think I would have responded either way.

Current status:
Suspicious: No one
Not suspicious: no one
Vote: None

I'll try to get back on after work, but I can't make any guarantees.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 29, 2012, 01:37:33 pm
I did this in the first game and I guess i'll do this again. Voting ATM really is inconsequential and I find it amusing that people are so surprised at votes already occurring.

I will vote for the person whose number corresponds to the seconds digit on the timestamp IFF they have a reasonable chance of being lynched and no mafia clearly screwed up.

Galzria   0
michaeljb   1
jotheonah   2
Morgrim7   3
MrEevee   4
Dsell   5
Robz   6
Voltgloss  7
eHalcyon   8
Captain_Frisk   9
def   -bye
yuma   -bye
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 29, 2012, 01:38:33 pm
VOTE: MORGRIM
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: def on May 29, 2012, 02:03:03 pm
I did this in the first game and I guess i'll do this again. Voting ATM really is inconsequential and I find it amusing that people are so surprised at votes already occurring.

I will vote for the person whose number corresponds to the seconds digit on the timestamp IFF they have a reasonable chance of being lynched and no mafia clearly screwed up.

Galzria   0
michaeljb   1
jotheonah   2
Morgrim7   3
MrEevee   4
Dsell   5
Robz   6
Voltgloss  7
eHalcyon   8
Captain_Frisk   9
def   -bye
yuma   -bye

What do you mean, bye? I demand to me treated equally. You could use the seconds modulo 12 I guess.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 29, 2012, 02:05:45 pm
Voting ATM really is inconsequential and I find it amusing that people are so surprised at votes already occurring.

The "I'm new" argument, doesn't work so well. The game is pretty straight forward. Don't read too much into hard strategy. This game is about instinct and constant analyzing.
Eh, Voltgloss was responding to my second vote like it was dangerous, talking about how quickly further bandwagoning could happen, I was guessing experience might tell someone that (ie they've seen it happen numerous times with poor results). Like O, I don't really see the harm at this point.

Quote
But never get defensive! Defensive play feels negative, and will just bring more/harsher criticism, often unwarranted.
I understand this, but I certainly don't want to ignore it when someone is suspicious of me and has questions they want answered. I guess there's a fine line between appropriately answering questions and being too defensive.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 29, 2012, 02:10:05 pm
I will certainly try to post more and be more active, but I don't have all day to be on the forum.

Fair enough, and probably a good thing in general to not be tied to the compy  ::)

Unvote
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 29, 2012, 02:11:58 pm
I'm still waiting on Voltgloss to respond to my suspicions that this "work" thing is just a big rouse. He's hiding something I tell ya! Mark my words!  ;)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 29, 2012, 02:47:27 pm
I did this in the first game and I guess i'll do this again. Voting ATM really is inconsequential and I find it amusing that people are so surprised at votes already occurring.

I will vote for the person whose number corresponds to the seconds digit on the timestamp IFF they have a reasonable chance of being lynched and no mafia clearly screwed up.

Galzria   0
michaeljb   1
jotheonah   2
Morgrim7   3
MrEevee   4
Dsell   5
Robz   6
Voltgloss  7
eHalcyon   8
Captain_Frisk   9
def   -bye
yuma   -bye

Just to clarify -- you mean the second digit of the seconds on your own post?  So... you vote Morgrim?  Nice way to randomize, ha. :P

And I guess def and yuma got byes for being quiet?  I was wondering how you made the order of the list, but it looks like you just took the list from Captain_Frisk's post of post counts.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 29, 2012, 02:57:21 pm
What's this?! We were having a perfectly lovely conversation about avatars and begging for twigs, and now people are suddenly calling for a hanging??  :o  What a mad world we live in!

Seriously though, I'm glad to see more substantive posts! I do hope we can hear a little more from the quieter ones, and it doesn't seem to me like throwing a couple votes out early is putting us in too much danger of an early hammer. It seems like a terribly obvious mafia move to throw 2 or 3 bandwagon votes on a person in the first round to bring the hammer down. Nobody wants to actually lynch right now, we just want strong reactions. And strong reactions are good because a mafia player might be more likely to slip if they have to really defend themselves.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on May 29, 2012, 03:17:18 pm
ha, our votes worked, finally some real discussion!

my (and i assumed frisks's as well) point was just to vote for someone to create some tension and discussion. as michaeljb noted, getting seven people to vote feels sort of far away anyways. on a slightly different subject, am i wrong to think that unless someone does something really suspicious, the first to get up to 5 votes or so (so to a reasonable risk of getting lynched) isnt really a good lynch at all? because mafia is probably going to bandwagon if some innocent townie starts to get like any votes at all so at this point a townie is actually far more likely to get voted on than a mafia?

@voltgloss, as i said earlier, we got to get the ball rolling somehow and my strategy even worked, i got yuma to sort of defend himself even though he didnt really say much. by the way, voltgloss seems to be an awesome guy to have around, really good and insightful posts.

am i the only one who's really annoyed of O's voting behaviour? I mean, you really dont have enough faith in yourself to be able to make decisions better than 100% random? voting behaviour is probably the single greatest source of reads we are going to walk away with from day 1 and voting "random" just gives you a free pass of voting for town and blaming it was random if you are mafia. (you know, you could just pick a random "factor" that led to the guy you wanted to vote for anyways to clear yourself). I'm actually tempted to go ahead and vote for O but i dont want to be the guy who's voting for everyone and stuff so I'll refrain for the time being.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: def on May 29, 2012, 03:40:37 pm
because mafia is probably going to bandwagon if some innocent townie starts to get like any votes at all so at this point a townie is actually far more likely to get voted on than a mafia?

Since the folks to cast the final votes are very suspicious of being mafia, I doubt that mafia would risk themselves by voting to get a quick kill.
I'd even go so far and say that mafia might vote each other, because with so many players, the risk of accidentally lynching one of their own is pretty low, and it reduces suspicion if one of them somehow is revealed to be mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 29, 2012, 03:40:43 pm
am i the only one who's really annoyed of O's voting behaviour? I mean, you really dont have enough faith in yourself to be able to make decisions better than 100% random? voting behaviour is probably the single greatest source of reads we are going to walk away with from day 1 and voting "random" just gives you a free pass of voting for town and blaming it was random if you are mafia. (you know, you could just pick a random "factor" that led to the guy you wanted to vote for anyways to clear yourself). I'm actually tempted to go ahead and vote for O but i dont want to be the guy who's voting for everyone and stuff so I'll refrain for the time being.

Random voting didn't go over well in Mafia 1 either, but I can absolutely understand it.  As a town player, the only information you have is that you are not Mafia.  Everyone has an equally likely chance.  A pure random lynch is better than no lynch at all - for the reasons outlined in Mafia 2 - AND one that the Mafia is going to be less than enthused about doing (for fear of accidentally random rolling one of their own!). 

It's also not like he's using this to break ties on a hammer vote, just a question of starting position.  Our decisions were nearly as arbitrary.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 29, 2012, 03:50:00 pm
am i the only one who's really annoyed of O's voting behaviour? I mean, you really dont have enough faith in yourself to be able to make decisions better than 100% random? voting behaviour is probably the single greatest source of reads we are going to walk away with from day 1 and voting "random" just gives you a free pass of voting for town and blaming it was random if you are mafia. (you know, you could just pick a random "factor" that led to the guy you wanted to vote for anyways to clear yourself). I'm actually tempted to go ahead and vote for O but i dont want to be the guy who's voting for everyone and stuff so I'll refrain for the time being.

Random voting didn't go over well in Mafia 1 either, but I can absolutely understand it.  As a town player, the only information you have is that you are not Mafia.  Everyone has an equally likely chance.  A pure random lynch is better than no lynch at all - for the reasons outlined in Mafia 2 - AND one that the Mafia is going to be less than enthused about doing (for fear of accidentally random rolling one of their own!). 

It's also not like he's using this to break ties on a hammer vote, just a question of starting position.  Our decisions were nearly as arbitrary.

The problem I have with it, is that... Well, yes. Our vote is likely going to be PRETTY random. However, stating that you choose randomly is a complete mislead. I mean, can you prove he didn't set it up to fall on a townie (assuming he were Mafia)? Of course not. So in that respect, there is no such thing as "a random lynch". If you believe someone is Mafia, make a case for it. Right or wrong at least you've done justice to yourself and other players in providing real perspective on how you think.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 29, 2012, 03:53:46 pm
am i the only one who's really annoyed of O's voting behaviour? I mean, you really dont have enough faith in yourself to be able to make decisions better than 100% random? voting behaviour is probably the single greatest source of reads we are going to walk away with from day 1 and voting "random" just gives you a free pass of voting for town and blaming it was random if you are mafia. (you know, you could just pick a random "factor" that led to the guy you wanted to vote for anyways to clear yourself). I'm actually tempted to go ahead and vote for O but i dont want to be the guy who's voting for everyone and stuff so I'll refrain for the time being.

Random voting didn't go over well in Mafia 1 either, but I can absolutely understand it.  As a town player, the only information you have is that you are not Mafia.  Everyone has an equally likely chance.  A pure random lynch is better than no lynch at all - for the reasons outlined in Mafia 2 - AND one that the Mafia is going to be less than enthused about doing (for fear of accidentally random rolling one of their own!). 

It's also not like he's using this to break ties on a hammer vote, just a question of starting position.  Our decisions were nearly as arbitrary.

The problem I have with it, is that... Well, yes. Our vote is likely going to be PRETTY random. However, stating that you choose randomly is a complete mislead. I mean, can you prove he didn't set it up to fall on a townie (assuming he were Mafia)? Of course not. So in that respect, there is no such thing as "a random lynch". If you believe someone is Mafia, make a case for it. Right or wrong at least you've done justice to yourself and other players in providing real perspective on how you think.

In the future O - its probably best to choose something that's reasonably random... Say - Number of Justin Bieber followers at the end of the day modded by 12  (as reported by http://twittercounter.com/justinbieber).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 29, 2012, 04:16:10 pm
am i the only one who's really annoyed of O's voting behaviour? I mean, you really dont have enough faith in yourself to be able to make decisions better than 100% random? voting behaviour is probably the single greatest source of reads we are going to walk away with from day 1 and voting "random" just gives you a free pass of voting for town and blaming it was random if you are mafia. (you know, you could just pick a random "factor" that led to the guy you wanted to vote for anyways to clear yourself). I'm actually tempted to go ahead and vote for O but i dont want to be the guy who's voting for everyone and stuff so I'll refrain for the time being.

Random voting didn't go over well in Mafia 1 either, but I can absolutely understand it.  As a town player, the only information you have is that you are not Mafia.  Everyone has an equally likely chance.  A pure random lynch is better than no lynch at all - for the reasons outlined in Mafia 2 - AND one that the Mafia is going to be less than enthused about doing (for fear of accidentally random rolling one of their own!). 

It's also not like he's using this to break ties on a hammer vote, just a question of starting position.  Our decisions were nearly as arbitrary.

The problem I have with it, is that... Well, yes. Our vote is likely going to be PRETTY random. However, stating that you choose randomly is a complete mislead. I mean, can you prove he didn't set it up to fall on a townie (assuming he were Mafia)? Of course not. So in that respect, there is no such thing as "a random lynch". If you believe someone is Mafia, make a case for it. Right or wrong at least you've done justice to yourself and other players in providing real perspective on how you think.

I have a totally different problem with that, namely that we could all say "Yes, O is wise and his method is sound, let us all vote for his randomly selected townie and get this lynch over with." At which point, the whole point of the quote-unquote random Day 1 lynch - generating discussion - would be defeated.  Or we could each set up our own random number generators and, in all likelihood, lynch no one. But there's no scenario in which your random number generator is actually helpful to the town in any way.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 29, 2012, 04:19:12 pm
am i the only one who's really annoyed of O's voting behaviour? I mean, you really dont have enough faith in yourself to be able to make decisions better than 100% random? voting behaviour is probably the single greatest source of reads we are going to walk away with from day 1 and voting "random" just gives you a free pass of voting for town and blaming it was random if you are mafia. (you know, you could just pick a random "factor" that led to the guy you wanted to vote for anyways to clear yourself). I'm actually tempted to go ahead and vote for O but i dont want to be the guy who's voting for everyone and stuff so I'll refrain for the time being.

Random voting didn't go over well in Mafia 1 either, but I can absolutely understand it.  As a town player, the only information you have is that you are not Mafia.  Everyone has an equally likely chance.  A pure random lynch is better than no lynch at all - for the reasons outlined in Mafia 2 - AND one that the Mafia is going to be less than enthused about doing (for fear of accidentally random rolling one of their own!). 

It's also not like he's using this to break ties on a hammer vote, just a question of starting position.  Our decisions were nearly as arbitrary.

The problem I have with it, is that... Well, yes. Our vote is likely going to be PRETTY random. However, stating that you choose randomly is a complete mislead. I mean, can you prove he didn't set it up to fall on a townie (assuming he were Mafia)? Of course not. So in that respect, there is no such thing as "a random lynch". If you believe someone is Mafia, make a case for it. Right or wrong at least you've done justice to yourself and other players in providing real perspective on how you think.

I have a totally different problem with that, namely that we could all say "Yes, O is wise and his method is sound, let us all vote for his randomly selected townie and get this lynch over with." At which point, the whole point of the quote-unquote random Day 1 lynch - generating discussion - would be defeated.  Or we could each set up our own random number generators and, in all likelihood, lynch no one. But there's no scenario in which your random number generator is actually helpful to the town in any way.

Oh, I agree with that completely as well. I think our end conclusion is pretty much the same in either case though: It's highly unhelpful to the town.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 29, 2012, 05:54:59 pm
the quote unquote random lynch isn't beneficial because it creates discussion. It's beneficial because it's statistically better for us to lynch the first day assuming random picks.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 29, 2012, 07:03:12 pm
the quote unquote random lynch isn't beneficial because it creates discussion. It's beneficial because it's statistically better for us to lynch the first day assuming random picks.

Is this true for all group sizes?  I remember seeing the math in either Mafia I or II.  I think there was also a complaint that it didn't factor in town power roles, but that if it did it will still be in favour of day 1 lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: yuma on May 29, 2012, 07:04:48 pm
I'm mostly checking in because apparently absence breeds suspicion--why is that such a hard word to spell? Every time I type it I have to use the auto correct--but I am not seeing much of anything that seems "suspicious." I understand the need to get a discussion going, but everything that has been said thus far seems to be complete speculation and not really worth commenting on... 

I'm still waiting on Voltgloss to respond to my suspicions that this "work" thing is just a big rouse. He's hiding something I tell ya! Mark my words!  ;)

I did find this a bit off. Just adding a smiley face doesn't make it any better. Emoticons are too often used as a shield to deflect real meaning in a conversation. 

Status:
Suspicious: Galzria--just a little bit
Not suspicious: no one
Vote: None
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 29, 2012, 07:21:56 pm
Sorry I have been gone...
Randomizer voting, huh O? Hmmm not a bad idea, until we find out more..
Some suspicions...
Suspicious: Galzria, maybe some others
Not Suspicious: None
Vote: Nobody...yet...

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: yuma on May 29, 2012, 08:04:33 pm
Yeah, sure, and when I'm here, nobody talks AT ALL. Which timezones are you in? I'm GMT+1.

I too am beginning to feel this way. I am finally on to talk and comment and no one else seems to be writing much of anything at the time. But when I turn off the computer and come back tomorrow afternoon there will be 2 new pages and half a dozen votes I am sure...

Oh, and I am Mountain Daylight Time
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 29, 2012, 08:19:04 pm
I'm mostly checking in because apparently absence breeds suspicion--why is that such a hard word to spell? Every time I type it I have to use the auto correct--but I am not seeing much of anything that seems "suspicious." I understand the need to get a discussion going, but everything that has been said thus far seems to be complete speculation and not really worth commenting on... 

I'm still waiting on Voltgloss to respond to my suspicions that this "work" thing is just a big rouse. He's hiding something I tell ya! Mark my words!  ;)

I did find this a bit off. Just adding a smiley face doesn't make it any better. Emoticons are too often used as a shield to deflect real meaning in a conversation. 

Status:
Suspicious: Galzria--just a little bit
Not suspicious: no one
Vote: None

Oh, there wasn't meant to be any deflection. It was more a poke at Volt because he's MIA (for stated reasons) from both this game and Mafia-II. Still, feel free to suspect me over it. I'm firmly in the camp that casting lines of suspicion to arouse responses from people (what I'm doing at Volt) is MUCH safer as a town play than actually casting votes to arouse responses. So I do find it funny that my playing "safer" by NOT voting my suspicions gets me more attention than those who use their vote in a possibly dangerous manner.

Ah well, what can I do? I stand by my statement though. I suspect Volt, and would like to hear more from him. Is he busy working? Probably. Can I hold that against him? Well, absolutely! Especially when I have nothing else to go on. I find that better play than a "random" lynch based on timestamp.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 29, 2012, 08:33:30 pm
Yeah, sure, and when I'm here, nobody talks AT ALL. Which timezones are you in? I'm GMT+1.

I too am beginning to feel this way. I am finally on to talk and comment and no one else seems to be writing much of anything at the time. But when I turn off the computer and come back tomorrow afternoon there will be 2 new pages and half a dozen votes I am sure...

Oh, and I am Mountain Daylight Time

Lurking a bit here because I don't have much of a read on anyone.  However, I find yuma's suspicion of Galzria (reply #223) a bit odd.  What's wrong with what Galzria said?  Seemed like a pretty harmless post to me.  "Emoticons are too often used as a shield to deflect real meaning in a conversation."  yuma, what do you think the real meaning was?

Keeping on the Galzria trail, I'm wondering why Morgrim is suspicious of him as well.  Is it because of the vote counts that Captain_Frisk posted?

(Earlier on I misidentified my time zone as MST.  I realize now that I'm currently in MDT.  Those daylight savings!  Parenthical comment because it's not really relevant to the above discussion.)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on May 30, 2012, 01:24:03 am
Oh, how I wish I had time today/tomorrow to spend on these games. 

But alas work consumed me today as I predicted it would.  It's 1:30 a.m. here and I am still plowing ahead.

I'll try to weigh in with substance Wednesday evening.  Hopefully it won't be sleep-deprived substance.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on May 30, 2012, 01:54:24 am
UNVOTE

Voting for yuma doesnt feel right anymore, he hasnt said anything i find suspicious and clearly isnt the most inactive player or anything like that anymore (which was the only reason for my initial vote).

O, obviously your random vote is going to be better than going to night without a lynch but no one is proposing that. Thats like saying "i want to buy that cellar because its clearly better than nothing" when you have 3 to spend and warehouse is on board.

Even if we believe your votes really are random (if you are mafia, they are not), voting random is still clearly worse (for town) than voting for someone and stating your reasons for doing so. Why dont you want to help us?
(Note: i dont necessarily blame people who say "i dont have any suspicions or any idea who to vote for, but I do appreciate the people who help us dig for mafia by trying to spot questionable behaviour. Random voting is not going to do that).

ugh i feel i'm writing really bad english atm, sorry everyone & i hope this is clear enough. if it isnt obvious to anyone by now, i am not a native english speaker.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 30, 2012, 02:01:29 am
Honestly couldn't even tell Eevee. Most people on an internet forum don't bother to "speak" well. I'm very appreciative that the community here does seem to make an effort at it though. Having said that, you don't stand out at all to me, so that's a good thing. People around here seem to be a pretty good crowd to blend in to. :)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 30, 2012, 08:26:52 am
All right folks, its time for your morning post count:  here's our activity since our last count

Username   Posts In Last Day
Galzria   8
michaeljb   6
O   4
Captain_Frisk   4
MrEevee   3
eHalcyon   3
def   3
yuma   3
Morgrim7   2
Voltgloss   2
jotheonah   1
Dsell   1
Robz   0

RobZ's silence is interesting - given that he has definitely been around.  I don't know whether to read him as lurking or just bored because there is nothing to go on.

MichaelJB and Galzria continue to be chatty.  Since nothing material has happened - I see no reason to change my vote.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 30, 2012, 09:23:35 am
Safe to say that the-games-that-shall-not-be-named are at a more critical juncture for Robz ATM.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on May 30, 2012, 09:58:38 am
Safe to say that the-games-that-shall-not-be-named are at a more critical juncture for Robz ATM.

Agreed.  Same holds true for me, jotheonah, and Galzria (and Insomniac too of course). 

How Galzria is maintaining highest-post-count here AND putting together his magnum opus elsewhere is truly amazing to me.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 30, 2012, 10:11:36 am
Clearly "Galzria" is not a real person but an advanced AI. At some point rrenaud's Dominion Simulator gained sentience, registered for the blog, and became Galzria. It likes mafia games because they provide an opportunity to study the human psyche and learn how to better emulate us.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on May 30, 2012, 10:54:24 am
With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Galzria(1) - Captain Frisk
Morgrim(1) - O
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 30, 2012, 11:26:02 am
Dear Journal,
Bad news. Someone has voted to hang me! The only other vote is for the Duke...at least the person who voted for me did not think I am Mafia (I'm not) the vote was random. I have not voted yet; I wish to wait until I have more Information.
I have made my will in case I am lynched.
The Merchant Ship came in today! I made two coins. I wish to save the money in a bank until further notice.
P.S. The Alchemist declined my request. :(
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 30, 2012, 01:20:07 pm
Safe to say that the-games-that-shall-not-be-named are at a more critical juncture for Robz ATM.

I'd be willing to buy that... except that RobZ still had time to play 10 games of dominion yesterday: http://councilroom.com/player?player=Robz888... and I accidentally caught him via automatch during my lunchbreak.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 30, 2012, 01:50:14 pm
Safe to say that the-games-that-shall-not-be-named are at a more critical juncture for Robz ATM.

I'd be willing to buy that... except that RobZ still had time to play 10 games of dominion yesterday: http://councilroom.com/player?player=Robz888... and I accidentally caught him via automatch during my lunchbreak.

Well, the relevant question to THIS game then is: Who won?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 30, 2012, 01:52:29 pm
Safe to say that the-games-that-shall-not-be-named are at a more critical juncture for Robz ATM.

I'd be willing to buy that... except that RobZ still had time to play 10 games of dominion yesterday: http://councilroom.com/player?player=Robz888... and I accidentally caught him via automatch during my lunchbreak.

Well, the relevant question to THIS game then is: Who won?

He did... was village / wharf madness, and I started greening too early I think.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 30, 2012, 01:56:10 pm
Safe to say that the-games-that-shall-not-be-named are at a more critical juncture for Robz ATM.

I'd be willing to buy that... except that RobZ still had time to play 10 games of dominion yesterday: http://councilroom.com/player?player=Robz888... and I accidentally caught him via automatch during my lunchbreak.

Well in that case, let's kill him for sure. /sarcasm
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 30, 2012, 02:54:04 pm
P.S. The Alchemist declined my request. :(

Morgrim keeps picking on the Alchemist, which I guess is me by virtue of my new avatar. :(

Morgrim, what have you to say about these suggestions that I am less-than-kind-and-wonderful?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: yuma on May 30, 2012, 03:04:13 pm
However, I find yuma's suspicion of Galzria (reply #223) a bit odd.  What's wrong with what Galzria said?  Seemed like a pretty harmless post to me.  "Emoticons are too often used as a shield to deflect real meaning in a conversation."  yuma, what do you think the real meaning was?


Quick response to your question. I think Galzria's comment was exactly what it said. He wanted to know if Voltgloss was really working or if he was using it as an excuse. The emoticon makes it look like a joke.
Emoticons are like the group of students from my old high school who would say something insulting and then add a J.K. at the end of it. Adding a JK or a ;) doesn't change what was originally behind it. Galzria's suspicion of Voltgloss for telling us that he wouldn't be around for the next little bit seemed odd. Just because Volgloss has a real life job that takes him away from a game doesn't mean he should be suspected--for that reason only, if there are other reasons to suspect him, then sure. I would rather suspect someone who says he is free all the next day and then doesn't appear online, or who disappears without letting us know. That is shady behavior. Being clear and open with time and expected appearances doesn't. At least not to me.

Suspicious: Galzria (still very slightly)
Not Suspicious: no one
vote: none

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 30, 2012, 03:27:26 pm
Safe to say that the-games-that-shall-not-be-named are at a more critical juncture for Robz ATM.

I'd be willing to buy that... except that RobZ still had time to play 10 games of dominion yesterday: http://councilroom.com/player?player=Robz888... and I accidentally caught him via automatch during my lunchbreak.

Well, the relevant question to THIS game then is: Who won?

He did... was village / wharf madness, and I started greening too early I think.

Nah, it was all luck.

Moving on, I have no suspicions. Absolutely none. I haven't said anything, because I have some other mafia games where I do have ideas, and this thread already has enough substance-less posts!  ;)

I will say I don't like O's method of voting--not because I expect us to do much better than random (I do, but not much), but because it doesn't generate too much discussion. Morgrim can't defend himself from a number generator, so there isn't any value in accusing and voting for Morgrim based on that.

I suppose I can do what I usually do, though. Eevee: Are you the mafia? Explain yourself.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 30, 2012, 03:32:42 pm
Quick response to your question. I think Galzria's comment was exactly what it said. He wanted to know if Voltgloss was really working or if he was using it as an excuse. The emoticon makes it look like a joke.
Emoticons are like the group of students from my old high school who would say something insulting and then add a J.K. at the end of it. Adding a JK or a ;) doesn't change what was originally behind it. Galzria's suspicion of Voltgloss for telling us that he wouldn't be around for the next little bit seemed odd. Just because Volgloss has a real life job that takes him away from a game doesn't mean he should be suspected--for that reason only, if there are other reasons to suspect him, then sure. I would rather suspect someone who says he is free all the next day and then doesn't appear online, or who disappears without letting us know. That is shady behavior. Being clear and open with time and expected appearances doesn't. At least not to me.

Suspicious: Galzria (still very slightly)
Not Suspicious: no one
vote: none

Eh, that's fair.  I don't necessarily agree though -- it certain read like a joke to me.  Admittedly it IS because of the emoticon that I take it as a joke, but I also don't see how it would be an effective way of casting suspicion on someone.  Also, I tend to use emoticons to clarify my meaning online.  Otherwise, my dry sarcastic pith might go undetected, and then what's the point of being dry, sarcastic and pithy?  ;)  (And more importantly, I have at times unintentionally offended people who didn't realize I was joking.)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 30, 2012, 03:34:45 pm
P.S. The Alchemist declined my request. :(

Morgrim keeps picking on the Alchemist, which I guess is me by virtue of my new avatar. :(

Morgrim, what have you to say about these suggestions that I am less-than-kind-and-wonderful?
You are probably not going to believe me, but I did not notice that coincidence until now. Must be a different Alchemist.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on May 30, 2012, 03:40:16 pm
By the way I'm sorry for not I'm not able to quote people. It would take awfully long on an ipad and I left my laptop home. Hopefully I'll still be around when I fly back on the 13th!

@Robz, I honestly dont know how helpful that question is going to be (for town). You cant expect anyone to answer "yeah you got me, I'm mafia" but a less experienced player might (accidentally or intentionally) make a comment regarding his/her role which isnt too good for town. (Is this logic sound?)

.. and yeah, I dont think I have anything to explain. I feel I've been one of the more helpful posters this far, dont really see any reason to suspect me. Why did you pick me to ask that question?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 30, 2012, 03:44:03 pm
P.S. The Alchemist declined my request. :(

Morgrim keeps picking on the Alchemist, which I guess is me by virtue of my new avatar. :(

Morgrim, what have you to say about these suggestions that I am less-than-kind-and-wonderful?
You are probably not going to believe me, but I did not notice that coincidence until now. Must be a different Alchemist.

Eh, I think I believe you. Really nobody seems too suspicious yet. And competition is fierce in my field.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 30, 2012, 03:52:58 pm
P.S. The Alchemist declined my request. :(

Morgrim keeps picking on the Alchemist, which I guess is me by virtue of my new avatar. :(

Morgrim, what have you to say about these suggestions that I am less-than-kind-and-wonderful?
You are probably not going to believe me, but I did not notice that coincidence until now. Must be a different Alchemist.

Eh, I think I believe you. Really nobody seems too suspicious yet. And competition is fierce in my field.
Well, he has enough money for a bunch of Apprentices...have you noticed that there are not very many Peddlers and Border Villages? He even has his own Apothecary shop. Tel us about your Apothecary shop.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 30, 2012, 03:54:07 pm
By the way I'm sorry for not I'm not able to quote people. It would take awfully long on an ipad and I left my laptop home. Hopefully I'll still be around when I fly back on the 13th!

@Robz, I honestly dont know how helpful that question is going to be (for town). You cant expect anyone to answer "yeah you got me, I'm mafia"

Eh, you never know.

but a less experienced player might (accidentally or intentionally) make a comment regarding his/her role which isnt too good for town. (Is this logic sound?)

It's probably not a good thing, though we don't know which roles we are dealing with. But yeah, people should keep their roles quiet for now. But no I don't think accusations are likely to out people with roles until that person has a lot of votes. We have to get info somehow at some point.

.. and yeah, I dont think I have anything to explain. I feel I've been one of the more helpful posters this far, dont really see any reason to suspect me. Why did you pick me to ask that question?

Just a feeling. Your posts seem to strike a Mafia-esque balance between purposeful and silly.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on May 30, 2012, 04:00:04 pm
haha trying my best to be insightful and smart and coming out as silly, thats painful to hear :D
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 30, 2012, 04:08:17 pm
It's probably not a good thing, though we don't know which roles we are dealing with. But yeah, people should keep their roles quiet for now. But no I don't think accusations are likely to out people with roles until that person has a lot of votes. We have to get info somehow at some point.

We do need to get info @ some point.  To this end - I am going to UNVOTE.  While I'm suspicious of various people who seem to be anti-voting, I'm going to vote with O here for 2 reasons:

1.  I don't believe that the isotropic timestamp is predictable enough to reliably game - so I do believe his vote is true random - rather than a mafia attempt at guiding us.
2.  Morgrim's posts have been non substantial... I appreciate the attempt @ flavor, but when the posts are journal entries discussing Merchant Ships and banks, it doesn't seem to accomplish anything other than keeping us from thinking that you're inactive and lurking.

VOTE: Morgrim7
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 30, 2012, 04:13:24 pm
-Shrugs Shoulders-
Well, I suppose I will vote too. And my vote is...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 30, 2012, 04:15:30 pm
haha trying my best to be insightful and smart and coming out as silly, thats painful to hear :D

You are insightful. I meant that you are insightful and a little silly, which strikes me as mafia. But it could be that I am exaggerating how silly you are because you are a cute Pokemon.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 30, 2012, 04:16:56 pm
-Pulls name from basket-
An here we have…

Vote: def
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 30, 2012, 04:26:45 pm
-Pulls name from basket-
An here we have…

Vote: def

And this is exactly what I'm referring to - you've posted... but have done so with no substance.  You hint that the vote for def is random, but there's no way for us to verify.  There's no explanation given for the vote. 
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: yuma on May 30, 2012, 04:35:14 pm
Also, I tend to use emoticons to clarify my meaning online.  Otherwise, my dry sarcastic pith might go undetected, and then what's the point of being dry, sarcastic and pithy?  ;)  (And more importantly, I have at times unintentionally offended people who didn't realize I was joking.)

That is a good point. Perhaps it is because I am not very sarcastic? I don't use emoticons very much and as such don't like it when other people do. It confuses the conversation for me :) --see what do I mean by that smile? I don't know, do you :) -- ah! there it goes again. :) ....  Ok, maybe I am a little sarcastic.

Status:

Suspicious: Galzria, Morgrim7
Not suspicious: none
Vote: none
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 30, 2012, 04:36:58 pm
-Pulls name from basket-
An here we have…

Vote: def

And this is exactly what I'm referring to - you've posted... but have done so with no substance.  You hint that the vote for def is random, but there's no way for us to verify.  There's no explanation given for the vote.
Explanation: I ripped up a peice of paper into 12 different peices of paper, wrote the names of the player on the shreds, placed them in a basket, and chose one randomly. True story.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 30, 2012, 04:50:59 pm
I really don't like the random voting by either O or Morgrim.  By randomly voting, you remove yourself from the decision process.  If the lynch goes through and they turn up Town, you can curse fate and keep the blame off of yourself.  You can't be accused of targeting the unlucky player because it was random.  And that tells the town nothing.

If you are town, you should be picking a target based on SOME sort of reasoning.  Something strange the player said.  Their post count.  Their post quality.  Even an inexplicable gut instinct is better than random voting.  It lets the town know that you're at least trying to identify the Mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 30, 2012, 05:09:59 pm
Yeah, voting this random is going to be close to random. There's no need to make it EXACTLY random. In fact, we will face the same problems next round if our kill this round is made for purely random reasons. We need to question, accuse, harass. Although I guess these random voters are instructive in that they give us someone to accuse.

So, I insist that pure random voting is the worst thing you can do for the town. O and Morgrim have done it. I ask you both: Why? Do you disagree with my analysis? Will you admit to being the mafia?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 30, 2012, 05:10:38 pm
Yeah, voting this random is going to be close to random. There's no need to make it EXACTLY random. In fact, we will face the same problems next round if our kill this round is made for purely random reasons. We need to question, accuse, harass. Although I guess these random voters are instructive in that they give us someone to accuse.

So, I insist that pure random voting is the worst thing you can do for the town. O and Morgrim have done it. I ask you both: Why? Do you disagree with my analysis? Will you admit to being the mafia?

Typo: ****Yeah, voting this ROUND is going to be close to random. There's no****
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 30, 2012, 05:16:08 pm
Why? I guess I was pressure to vote, after two voting squares were.placed on my head. Do I disagree with you? Absolutely not. That makes sense. Will I admit to being Mafia? If I lie to you by saying I am Mafia, what could I hope to gain? Suspicion? People wondering wether I am bluffing or double bluffing? I am town.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 30, 2012, 05:18:37 pm
Post 224 -- Morgrim said he was suspicious of "Galzria, maybe some others."  I asked for reasons why he was suspicious but there hasn't been a response yet.  Morgrim, can you explain?  Who else were you "maybe" suspicious of, and why?  Why haven't you shared those thoughts?  And why did you "randomly" vote for def instead of people you suspected?

Even though the first vote for you was random by O, I'm leaning towards you now as well.

Response?  Please?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: yuma on May 30, 2012, 05:32:01 pm
Along with the above posts I am becoming more and more wary of Morgrim7 behavior. I think I will join C. Frisk--whose vote I agree with--and O--whose vote I don't--in voting for Morgrim7.

Status:
Suspicious: Galzria, Morgrim7
Not suspicious: none
Vote: Morgrim7
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 30, 2012, 05:41:03 pm
Post 224 -- Morgrim said he was suspicious of "Galzria, maybe some others."  I asked for reasons why he was suspicious but there hasn't been a response yet.  Morgrim, can you explain?  Who else were you "maybe" suspicious of, and why?  Why haven't you shared those thoughts?  And why did you "randomly" vote for def instead of people you suspected?

Even though the first vote for you was random by O, I'm leaning towards you now as well.

Response?  Please?
I was suspicious of Galzria because of all his posts. I believe it is around 20 now. Some others, meaning the people who did not post much. You yourself said we should vote according to things such as # of posts.
You still do not believe my vote was random? Do you want me to post pictures of the slips of paper and basket? Prepare for some mesy handwriting. ;)
Why did I vote randomly? Good question. In Mafia II, one of the reasons why I was lynched was because of my 'easy on the bandwagon- easy off the bandwagon'. If someone came up with some defense for the person that I had voted for that made sense, I could either keep my vote (which would arouse suspicion) or vote for someone else. Voting for someone else would catch me in the same trap as last time. By voting randomly, if someone ever came up with a defense, I coud unvote, and hide behind my totally random vote and avoid suspicion. Did not realize at the time that the same could very possibly be done for the random vote idea.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 30, 2012, 05:54:28 pm
Post 224 -- Morgrim said he was suspicious of "Galzria, maybe some others."  I asked for reasons why he was suspicious but there hasn't been a response yet.  Morgrim, can you explain?  Who else were you "maybe" suspicious of, and why?  Why haven't you shared those thoughts?  And why did you "randomly" vote for def instead of people you suspected?

Even though the first vote for you was random by O, I'm leaning towards you now as well.

Response?  Please?
I was suspicious of Galzria because of all his posts. I believe it is around 20 now. Some others, meaning the people who did not post much. You yourself said we should vote according to things such as # of posts.
You still do not believe my vote was random? Do you want me to post pictures of the slips of paper and basket? Prepare for some mesy handwriting. ;)

That's fine, I just wanted to see a reason.

I have no reason to think that you are lying about selecting randomly.  But as others have noted, it can't be verified.  Saying it was random just seems like you want a way to defend a bad choice if it goes wrong, even though your choice may have truly been targeted.  At least with O's approach, it's rather unlikely he could cheat.  Photos wouldn't prove anything here!

Why did I vote randomly? Good question. In Mafia II, one of the reasons why I was lynched was because of my 'easy on the bandwagon- easy off the bandwagon'. If someone came up with some defense for the person that I had voted for that made sense, I could either keep my vote (which would arouse suspicion) or vote for someone else. Voting for someone else would catch me in the same trap as last time. By voting randomly, if someone ever came up with a defense, I coud unvote, and hide behind my totally random vote and avoid suspicion. Did not realize at the time that the same could very possibly be done for the random vote idea.

Random voting seems less helpful to me.  If you vote for someone with some reason, OK.  If a defense is brought up which makes you change your mind, OK.  It gets suspicious if you're especially capricious, but re-evaluating based on input from others is fine, I think.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 30, 2012, 06:02:40 pm
Post 224 -- Morgrim said he was suspicious of "Galzria, maybe some others."  I asked for reasons why he was suspicious but there hasn't been a response yet.  Morgrim, can you explain?  Who else were you "maybe" suspicious of, and why?  Why haven't you shared those thoughts?  And why did you "randomly" vote for def instead of people you suspected?

Even though the first vote for you was random by O, I'm leaning towards you now as well.

Response?  Please?
I was suspicious of Galzria because of all his posts. I believe it is around 20 now. Some others, meaning the people who did not post much. You yourself said we should vote according to things such as # of posts.
You still do not believe my vote was random? Do you want me to post pictures of the slips of paper and basket? Prepare for some mesy handwriting. ;)

That's fine, I just wanted to see a reason.

I have no reason to think that you are lying about selecting randomly.  But as others have noted, it can't be verified.  Saying it was random just seems like you want a way to defend a bad choice if it goes wrong, even though your choice may have truly been targeted.  At least with O's approach, it's rather unlikely he could cheat.  Photos wouldn't prove anything here!

Why did I vote randomly? Good question. In Mafia II, one of the reasons why I was lynched was because of my 'easy on the bandwagon- easy off the bandwagon'. If someone came up with some defense for the person that I had voted for that made sense, I could either keep my vote (which would arouse suspicion) or vote for someone else. Voting for someone else would catch me in the same trap as last time. By voting randomly, if someone ever came up with a defense, I coud unvote, and hide behind my totally random vote and avoid suspicion. Did not realize at the time that the same could very possibly be done for the random vote idea.

Random voting seems less helpful to me.  If you vote for someone with some reason, OK.  If a defense is brought up which makes you change your mind, OK.  It gets suspicious if you're especially capricious, but re-evaluating based on input from others is fine, I think.
Because pictures would not help, I do not see how I can defend this further. If you choose not to believe me, there is nothing I can do. I can only say I am telling the truth.
Voting for something, and then changing my vote when a good point was brought up played a big part in getting me lynched last time. Don't want to repeat mistakes.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 30, 2012, 06:54:04 pm
I gotta say I'm pretty surprised people are jumping on Morgrim like this. While I must agree that his posts have been largely (with the exception of his latest couple) unhelpful and while I don't like the idea of random voting...or at least trying to make something of a random vote, I am surprised to see votes being thrown his way. Disapproving glances, finger-shaking, and even suspicion I completely understand but I think letting this Morgrim bandwagon get off the ground is really premature. Not to unduly bring up the other game, but Morgrim's actions so far aren't seeming too dissimilar from Mafia II in which Morgrim was wrongly mislynched on day 1 because of his...unorthodox posting.

I'm definitely not saying he's not mafia, I have no idea. Nor do I mean to come to his defense adamantly, I'm just saying I think it's premature to draw any significant conclusions from his lack of substance thus far. I'd also like to point out that aside from his apparently purely random vote for def, I am really the only one he's shown any suspicion of or hostility towards, in the form of his "flavor" entries (talking about how the alchemist is terrible and whatnot...which he says was accidental and I believe him, but...really tough to say 100%).

All that said, Morgrim, if you are really town, please play smart. In your other game you drew lots of suspicion and then deprived the town of invaluable information by hammering yourself, and the town is on the verge of defeat in that game.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 30, 2012, 07:00:09 pm
I gotta say I'm pretty surprised people are jumping on Morgrim like this. While I must agree that his posts have been largely (with the exception of his latest couple) unhelpful and while I don't like the idea of random voting...or at least trying to make something of a random vote, I am surprised to see votes being thrown his way. Disapproving glances, finger-shaking, and even suspicion I completely understand but I think letting this Morgrim bandwagon get off the ground is really premature. Not to unduly bring up the other game, but Morgrim's actions so far aren't seeming too dissimilar from Mafia II in which Morgrim was wrongly mislynched on day 1 because of his...unorthodox posting.

This is really helpful information.  I wasn't following Mafia II closely enough to know what exactly got him lynched.  I did see the self-hammer go down though!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 30, 2012, 07:00:31 pm
Maybe it's too early to cry "bandwagon!" against Morgrim, with only Yuma and O voting for him thus far. But it does seem like we should be a little more careful about votes actually based on suspicion rather than just trying to get someone to talk, which I can't ever see turning into a bandwagon.


That reminds me! For the purpose of full disclosure, in just over two weeks, I am going on a week-long camping trip and I will almost certainly have no access to wifi the whole week. I know this could be right in the middle of things and so I'm sorry for that, but I will try to give a lot of substantive posts and help both before and after. I will actually be back before the deadline of day 1 so who knows, if we drag it out I might not miss too much. I'll remind people again with like a week left and before I leave.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 30, 2012, 07:45:30 pm
I would feel like kind of a jerk letting Morgrim be the Day 1 lynch ... AGAIN. Poor guy just wants to play some mafia.

On the other hand, two votes in a town this size is not so big a pressure cooker. It takes seven to kill? So 4 votes is the bare minimum for a mafia hammer, and that's assuming fairly stupid mafia play. So everybody calm down a little.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 30, 2012, 07:51:17 pm
I'm kinda with you on that J. I feel bad for Morgrim. But I can't let that stand in the way of good analysis and reads. Still, for the time being, his crimes are no more egregious than O's, and since O is making a habit of willfully unhelpful town play, my suspicions are "squarely" on O.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 30, 2012, 07:57:23 pm
I find it incredulous that you see my play as "willingly unhelpful", but I may have to wait till the end of Mafia I to defend myself there.

I have nearly equal chances of lynching a mafia whether I go off nonsensical "hunches" that I can later wave away as just first day ramblings as I do with random choice. The best thing I can do for myself at the moment (regardless of whether I'm town or Mafia at the moment) is convince you I'm town. If I'm town, that's ALSO the best thing I can do for the town at the moment.

Robz is once again going off the I-really-have-strong-feelings-about-these-players-when-I-have-no-information. Does this mean he is any likelier to be Mafia? Not really. But the strong accusation at whim Townie is a bad townie to play with indeed.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 30, 2012, 08:06:09 pm
Ha! By the same logic that I wouldn't want to Day 1 Kill Morgrim, I ought to be thrilled about Day 1 killing Robz, eh? That guy's playing too damn much mafia!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 30, 2012, 08:13:56 pm
O, if I asked a random number generator to pick someone to kill, and we lynched that person, how would we be any closer to winning day 2? Our odds will have changed (more often for the worst), but we will have no better knowledge than day 1.

Yes, Robz's play is AS LIKELY to hit town as yours, but at least we get information. Good, bad, or otherwise, it's more than we have with your method. And if town can't figure out who the Mafia are, town losses.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 30, 2012, 08:23:00 pm
So as to not ensue more unhelpful town play, and to discourage random voting henceforth (I see now why it is a bad idea[now do not jump on me here]), I have decided to Unvote.
O, Robz's voting off a hunch is no better than voting randomly. In fact, it is worse. Here is a list of assets for both.
Voting off a hunch:
-You can get useful information about that person.
-You can get useful information about the people that defend this person.
-Unless the person is Mafia, you most likely wont get jumped on by many people.

Voting Randomly:
-Well, you wont get info out of them; they wont respond. After all, the vote is random.
-Well, you might get jumped on for being 'willingly unhelpful'. Wait, this was supposed to be a list of assets.
-Your vote will be about as random as the normal lynch will be, so it is faster. Wait, faster? So cutting off good time to get info out of people is beneficial?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 30, 2012, 08:29:12 pm
O, if I asked a random number generator to pick someone to kill, and we lynched that person, how would we be any closer to winning day 2? Our odds will have changed (more often for the worst), but we will have no better knowledge than day 1.

Yes, Robz's play is AS LIKELY to hit town as yours, but at least we get information. Good, bad, or otherwise, it's more than we have with your method. And if town can't figure out who the Mafia are, town losses.

We get no more information. If you all would like me to go again, putting it through a random generator that's hidden from view, and framing it at a "hunch", I'll gladly do so.

Statistically, once again, it is better to lynch. You seem to not understand this by your "more often for the worst" comment.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 30, 2012, 08:34:31 pm
O, if I asked a random number generator to pick someone to kill, and we lynched that person, how would we be any closer to winning day 2? Our odds will have changed (more often for the worst), but we will have no better knowledge than day 1.

Yes, Robz's play is AS LIKELY to hit town as yours, but at least we get information. Good, bad, or otherwise, it's more than we have with your method. And if town can't figure out who the Mafia are, town losses.

We get no more information. If you all would like me to go again, putting it through a random generator that's hidden from view, and framing it at a "hunch", I'll gladly do so.

Statistically, once again, it is better to lynch. You seem to not understand this by your "more often for the worst" comment.
If you can back up your 'hunch' with some evidence, go ahead.
Suspicious: O
Not Suspicious: Nobody
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 30, 2012, 08:40:19 pm
O, if I asked a random number generator to pick someone to kill, and we lynched that person, how would we be any closer to winning day 2? Our odds will have changed (more often for the worst), but we will have no better knowledge than day 1.

Yes, Robz's play is AS LIKELY to hit town as yours, but at least we get information. Good, bad, or otherwise, it's more than we have with your method. And if town can't figure out who the Mafia are, town losses.

We get no more information. If you all would like me to go again, putting it through a random generator that's hidden from view, and framing it at a "hunch", I'll gladly do so.

Statistically, once again, it is better to lynch. You seem to not understand this by your "more often for the worst" comment.

So, this is problematic to me. No lynch is bad for the town because of (complicated maths)? Or is it bad because it gives the mafia a free kill? Or because it gives the town no information? Or all of those reasons?

But whatever, no lynch is anti-town. Which makes it pro-mafia (or so it has been argued).

AND YET.

Clearly a random lynch is good for the mafia.  If I'm mafia and the town agrees to all pick a single number, run a random number generator, and vote for the person it lands on, I say "Let's do it!" Because the odds are very much in my favor. So a random lynch is pro-Mafia.

So it seems like on Day 1, both lynching and not-lynching is pro-Mafia. How does that work?

The only thing that's actually pro-town at this point is lynching mafia, which of course is impossible to do with any certainty unless the mob screws up.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 30, 2012, 08:40:33 pm
So if I understand, O wants to random number generator the game. Because if you do round 1, you might as well round 2, and round 3, and...

You are completely wrong to think no information can be gained from following actual instincts. If you've ever played Poker online you would know this. Tells exist here as much as they do face-to-face. You can't just play a formula and win.

btw, there is a higher percentage of town with 10 of 13 than with 8 of 11. 8 of 11 is better than 6 of 9, and so forth. It is better to lynch than not lynch, but it is NOT better to lynch randomly than to lynch on instinct and information.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 30, 2012, 08:41:00 pm
We get no more information. If you all would like me to go again, putting it through a random generator that's hidden from view, and framing it at a "hunch", I'll gladly do so.

Statistically, once again, it is better to lynch. You seem to not understand this by your "more often for the worst" comment.

But the thing is, framing it as a hunch is better. There is literally no reason to respond to an accusation from a random number generator. There's really not any way TO respond. But if someone is noticing something peculiar in the way someone else is posting, accusing that person based on actual suspicions does merit a response, which gives us information. So even if you randomly pick someone and invent a reason for being suspicious of them, as long as it seems legitimate enough to merit a response you WILL get information from their defense. I'm of course not saying you should frame your random accusations that way nor am I saying that Robz' accusations are random and framed. Rather, I think Robz has some feeling for the game from playing a bit more. But still, saying that random voting gives us the same amount of information as votes based on "suspicious" behavior is just wrong. And it does seem like you are kinda unwilling to see this point.

Pre-post edit: Sorta ninja'd but oh well.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 30, 2012, 08:48:30 pm
And yet I've spiked conversation.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 30, 2012, 08:55:17 pm
O, you have not been defending yourself. If you wish to soften suspicion, please explain why you continue to support random voting.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 30, 2012, 08:56:11 pm
The true random voting--names out of a hat or number generator--is unhelpful because it doesn't generate discussion over the accusation. And I still say it is less likely to hit a mafia than hunch and evidence-based voting, but maybe only slightly less likely. Still, we are going to need these conversations to look back on next round and really start figuring things out.

For that reason, the true random voting is bad/unhelpful town behavior. So I was asking these bad/unhelpful town players to defend themselves. It doesn't mean I actually think they're mafia. I personally toss accusations around but reserve actual voting for the person I have settled on.

(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 30, 2012, 09:00:14 pm
O, you have not been defending yourself. If you wish to soften suspicion, please explain why you continue to support random voting.

I don't feel the need to defend myself. You accused me because I accused you, and I still see it unlikely that I need to be lynched.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 30, 2012, 09:07:30 pm

(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)

In light of this, and the fact that if O is ok with a random lynch, he must be ok with being lynched, and the fact I don't like O's tone and he's been getting annoying, Vote: O
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 30, 2012, 09:08:20 pm

(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)

Actually it's a pretty terrible fallback plan, since it involves recursive logic. "Killing randomly is terrible strategic, so O is a bad townie. If we can't determine a mafia member we should randomly kill a townie that we have no real suspicions of because he's a bad townie"

See what you did there?  ;)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 30, 2012, 09:10:43 pm

(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)

In light of this, and the fact that if O is ok with a random lynch, he must be ok with being lynched, and the fact I don't like O's tone and he's been getting annoying, Vote: O

I'm not OK with someone I know to be town being lynched.  ;) But of course you have no real evidence that I'm not, so my defense is nearly as pointless as your argument.

And if we're lynching "bad" people, lets go look at Mafia II and lynch Jonatheoh, Robz or Galzria: They're all either bad townies or excellent Mafia, and both are frightening concepts.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 30, 2012, 09:12:09 pm

(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)

Actually it's a pretty terrible fallback plan, since it involves recursive logic. "Killing randomly is terrible strategic, so O is a bad townie. If we can't determine a mafia member we should randomly kill a townie that we have no real suspicions of because he's a bad townie"

See what you did there?  ;)

Except that you're the one who stuck the second "randomly" in there, to make it sound recursive. All Robz and I are talking about is killing a bad townie. So we don't have to deal with them later. Of course, killing a Mafia is still preferable.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 30, 2012, 09:13:59 pm

(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)

In light of this, and the fact that if O is ok with a random lynch, he must be ok with being lynched, and the fact I don't like O's tone and he's been getting annoying, Vote: O

I'm not OK with someone I know to be town being lynched.  ;) But of course you have no real evidence that I'm not, so my defense is nearly as pointless as your argument.

And if we're lynching "bad" people, lets go look at Mafia II and lynch Jonatheoh, Robz or Galzria: They're all either bad townies or excellent Mafia, and both are frightening concepts.

Oh, yeah go ahead and leave out Volt. O and Volt are clearly mafia partners ;)

Honestly, you sort of make a good point there, but I at least am going to try hard to be less terrible this game.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 30, 2012, 09:16:04 pm
*checks first page*
*notices volt is in this game*

my apologies, I didn't remember because he hasn't posted recently enough  :P Problems of a 13 player mafia game.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 30, 2012, 09:21:39 pm
I hear ya on that one. OK everybody, I am BORED. So I propose a game. Imagine that Insomniac posted that the new deadline was tomorrow and everyone has to vote for someone. Who would you vote for and why? (Note: don't ACTUALLY vote.)

And ... GO!

(I will be immediately suspicious of anyone who chooses not to participate in this exercise)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 30, 2012, 09:25:17 pm
Do I need to take it seriously J?

Otherwise I suspect Theory for changing the fact that posts in Mafia games don't count towards your forum posts.... AFTER I up'd to a very undesirable rank of Duke. It's premeditated!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 30, 2012, 09:27:32 pm
Do I need to take it seriously J?

Otherwise I suspect Theory for changing the fact that posts in Mafia games don't count towards your forum posts.... AFTER I up'd to a very undesirable rank of Duke. It's premeditated!

Why won't you seriously accuse someone? You're denying us of information and discussion by not responding seriously! You should be lynched!!!

Yes I'm joking, but not really. You aren't being any better than I.


Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 30, 2012, 09:29:01 pm
On the flip side, I would toss up between O, for reasons stated in earlier posts. Maybe V for being active when it's convenient. And possibly you for making me do such a silly exercise.

I really have no hard suspicions. But I'll do my job and nettle trying to find SOMETHING.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 30, 2012, 09:30:24 pm

I really have no hard suspicions. But I'll do my job and nettle trying to find SOMETHING.

And inevitably vote a townie, as Mafia aren't going to suspicious in the way you keep looking for them to be. 
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 30, 2012, 09:32:11 pm

I really have no hard suspicions. But I'll do my job and nettle trying to find SOMETHING.

And inevitably vote a townie, as Mafia aren't going to suspicious in the way you keep looking for them to be. 

So you say. And most likely, you're probably half right. We'll likely hit town. But we'll be better off day 2 than having hit town via a random number generator.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 30, 2012, 09:34:31 pm
*sigh*
I would vote for O.
In fact, hmmm...
Vote: O.
Why? For the reasons posted above. A few being:
-He insists on playing  strategy that i detrimental to th team and beneficial to the mafia.
-He has not defended his view.
-
I don't like O's tone and he's been getting annoying
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 30, 2012, 09:35:07 pm

I really have no hard suspicions. But I'll do my job and nettle trying to find SOMETHING.

And inevitably vote a townie, as Mafia aren't going to suspicious in the way you keep looking for them to be. 

So you say. And most likely, you're probably half right. We'll likely hit town. But we'll be better off day 2 than having hit town via a random number generator.

Except we won't be.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 30, 2012, 09:39:39 pm
I'm honestly I'm the same boat at this point M. He's being purposefully unhelpful and blind to simple logic and reasoning. He wants to play this game in a generator, and the town losses that way. There's not much more I can say. Mafia or Town, of he's unwilling to help town win, I would rather not have him, because he's as good as Mafia at that point.

VOTE: O
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 30, 2012, 09:40:00 pm
*sigh*
I would vote for O.
In fact, hmmm...
Vote: O.
Why? For the reasons posted above. A few being:
-He insists on playing  strategy that i detrimental to th team and beneficial to the mafia.
-He has not defended his view.
-
I don't like O's tone and he's been getting annoying
Wow that is riddled with typos. playing a strategy
that is detrimental
to the team.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 30, 2012, 09:43:18 pm
He wants to play the game in a generator

for the first day. If you really think I play generator style the entire game, look at Mafia I. Oh wait, you just are happy someone whose not you is being lynched.

the town loses this way
no, it doesn't. The point of random voting is to either force the mafia the vote random or to narrow down who the mafia are (by not voting randomly)

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 30, 2012, 09:49:42 pm
If Volt would like to jump on me too, that'd be perfect. Then everyone that has made II the disaster that it is would be coalescing around me  ;)

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 30, 2012, 09:49:54 pm
He wants to play the game in a generator

for the first day. If you really think I play generator style the entire game, look at Mafia I. Oh wait, you just are happy someone whose not you is being lynched.

the town loses this way
no, it doesn't. The point of random voting is to either force the mafia the vote random or to narrow down who the mafia are (by not voting randomly)

And once again with no defense of how day 2 starts any different than day 1 if you lynched randomly day 1 and now have NOTHING to base an argument on. If you randomly pick day 1, then you MIGHT AS WELL randomly pick day 2. You'll be no closer to winning when dawn arises.

As for Mafia-I, I won't talk about it as a) it's not over, and b) not everybody has or should be required to read it. Suffice to say though, your success was in no way driven by your "random" aproach, but instead by the efforts and methods of others to draw out real information.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 30, 2012, 09:50:46 pm
Well the thing is I really wasn't very suspicious of O when I wrote the response to his post, I was more frustrated with his unwillingness to move past pure randomness. Since that I have become both more and less suspicious with him but ATM he's seeming town to me.

If we had to vote tomorrow I may vote def because I've seen like NOTHING from him and certainly not anything since things got a bit more serious.

But I think I would actually vote for Robz888 because he seems to be really trying hard to blend in during this game. I know that he's involved with all three other forum games but even when he has posted he has seemingly lacked conviction. Except for the mafia, we're all pretty much in the dark here. Yet it looks to me like he is intentionally trying only to fit in while not adding terribly much. This seems a little out of place and thus a little suspicious.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 30, 2012, 09:52:39 pm
your success was in no way driven by your "random" aproach, but instead by the efforts and methods of others to draw out real information.

Now you're just trying to provoke me  ;). Don't worry, I'll ignore your baseless claim.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 30, 2012, 09:57:15 pm
the town loses this way
no, it doesn't. The point of random voting is to either force the mafia the vote random or to narrow down who the mafia are (by not voting randomly)

I don't understand this sentence.  Force the mafia to vote randomly?  While that's not as optimal for them as picking their targets, the likely result is still in their favour:

1. There are far more Town than Mafia, so random is more likely to hit Town.
2. If people all vote randomly it is unlikely any one person will receive 7 votes.  That means no lynch, free night kill for Mafia.
3. Random voting gives no useful information to the town.  The accuser does not have motive or suspicion, nor does he need it.  The accused has no defense.

Your second statement ("by not voting randomly") is what we want to do.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on May 30, 2012, 10:06:58 pm
With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Morgrim7 (3) - O, Captain Frisk, yuma
O (3) - Morgrim7, Galzria, jotheonah

Not Voting (7) - Robz, def, Dsell, Eevee, michaeljb, Voltgloss, eHalcyon
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 30, 2012, 10:10:57 pm
jotheonah voted for O
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on May 30, 2012, 10:19:00 pm
jotheonah voted for O

I had missed that thanks
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 30, 2012, 10:32:31 pm
Ok, well I'm going to bed so I'm going to Unvote. It's been fun, this sparring with O, but I'm not actually convinced enough that he's mafia to leave that sitting there all night.

eHalycon, you're online and you're not participating in the exercise! what a mafia thing to do.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 30, 2012, 10:35:39 pm
Ok, well I'm going to bed so I'm going to Unvote. It's been fun, this sparring with O, but I'm not actually convinced enough that he's mafia to leave that sitting there all night.

eHalycon, you're online and you're not participating in the exercise! what a mafia thing to do.

+1 for doing the right thing. Unless you're Mafia covering your tracks. Hmm, ah, +1 anyway. I'm feeling nice today.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 30, 2012, 10:36:43 pm
Ok, well I'm going to bed so I'm going to Unvote. It's been fun, this sparring with O, but I'm not actually convinced enough that he's mafia to leave that sitting there all night.

eHalycon, you're online and you're not participating in the exercise! what a mafia thing to do.

I'm too cautious for my own good.  It's going to look like hedging, eh?  Against an early deadline, I'd probably vote for either Morgrim or O, due to the random voting.  However, I'm not convinced either are the Mafia either.  I expect that the actual spies will be talking a bit but not getting into any actual confrontations.  Hum.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: yuma on May 30, 2012, 10:42:17 pm
I am going to ask a question. Can we put the kibosh on references to Mafia II--or I for that matter. Many of us aren't involved in that and frankly don't have the time to go read through 20+ pages to understand what you are talking about there. From my understanding this is supposed to be a separate game, so from this point onward I am going to ignore any reference to another Mafia game because I don't have the time to do the research to back up any claim.

I am off to an early bed. I am leaving my vote as it stands for Morgrim7. Because of his response to Captain_Frisk's vote. His explanation for why he reacted that way isn't good enough for me.

And this is exactly what I'm referring to - you've posted... but have done so with no substance.  You hint that the vote for def is random, but there's no way for us to verify.  There's no explanation given for the vote.

Status:
Suspicious: Morgrim7, Galzria (slightly)
Not suspicious: none
Vote: Morgrim7
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 30, 2012, 10:50:57 pm
I don't think we're going to settle the Random vs. Non Random Day 1 vote start.

O isn't proposing that we all lynch randomly, he's just starting his initial voting position (which is nearly meaningless) with randomness.  Regardless of whether or not it is an acceptable play - I believe that O believes that it is positive - based on how it looks one of those other games is going, and his behavior there.  The closer we get to the kill vote, the more discussion we have about a candidate and the more information we get on voting patterns, and it doesn't really matter if we started on the wagon because of a RNG, or because I accused them of having a high post count, or we accused them because they were eating weenies during the long weekend and not posting enough.

I've been searching for Day 1 lynch stats elsewhere, to see whether town performs better or worse than random on average.  I would tend to think worse - given that if not voting randomly the mafia is going to steer the voting the way they want it to go, but I don't think any of us are going to solve this without creating MafiaCouncilRoom.com and collecting data for a few months.

After re-reading Mafia II, I'm going to agree with Dsell regarding Morgrim's "Unorthodox Posting" and UNVOTE.  I really don't like the concept of a unverifiable random vote, especially given that we were starting to have some real discussion, but doing that after the votes started to pile up AND everyone had already railed on O for it strikes me as Unorthodox Play, rather than Scummy.




Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on May 30, 2012, 11:00:42 pm
Well, I finally had a chance to review all the posts to date, and now I have to think about what I've seen.  I do have a few quick comments though.

First, I have to echo Dsell's warning about jumping on Morgrim simply for his posting style.  That was a key mistake we made in Mafia II.  Does that mean I think Morgrim is Town?  No, I don't have enough of a read on him yet.  But we should each be careful about not letting our read get confused simply because another player's posting style doesn't match ours.

O's behavior is puzzling though.  He seems to be willfully courting antagonism, and from a lot of different sources.  I'm having trouble seeing that as reasonable Town play or reasonable Mafia play.  O, could you give us some insight in what you're trying to accomplish?

A word of clarification about my "bandwagons can happen quickly" post a while back:  We have to remember there may be a Serial Killer among us, alongside 3 Mafia.  That means that a lynch could potentially happen with as few as 3 Townies on it.  Not LIKELY, as it'd be very transparent Mafia play, but possible.  Something to keep in mind.

jotheonah asked about who we'd vote for if Insomniac suddenly moved the deadline to tomorrow.  O is the obvious target, but he's SO obvious I'm not sure that's the right move.  I've already made my thoughts clear on Morgrim.  If forced to a vote right now, I'd vote for eHalcyon because of his going back and forth between O and Morgrim.  Yes, you're right eHalcyon, what you're doing so far does look like hedging.  :)

I echo the sentiment that we should hear more from def and Robz.  I'm of course aware that I wasn't posting very much over the last 48 hours either.  But at least I gave fair warning that was going to be the case! 

A final impression:  out of everyone else so far, Dsell seems to be making the most generally reasonable, well-thought-out posts.  If I had to pick "most likely other player to be Town" at this very moment, I'd pick him. 

Oh, and Galzria - don't want you to feel like I'm ignoring your suspicion either.  What can I say to convince you that I did, in fact, work at the office through last night and am currently running off of 2 hours sleep?  Perhaps I should let my posting ability spontaneously decomsgiprneja;hjbkn;bkjd;
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 30, 2012, 11:07:49 pm
Ahh Volt. Made me chuckle, so that's good enough for me right now. I've still got my eye on you though!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 30, 2012, 11:08:45 pm
jotheonah asked about who we'd vote for if Insomniac suddenly moved the deadline to tomorrow.  O is the obvious target, but he's SO obvious I'm not sure that's the right move.  I've already made my thoughts clear on Morgrim.  If forced to a vote right now, I'd vote for eHalcyon because of his going back and forth between O and Morgrim.  Yes, you're right eHalcyon, what you're doing so far does look like hedging.  :)

I won't hold it against you.  In my defense, I'm going between them for a single consistent reason!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 30, 2012, 11:36:17 pm
OMG IM GOING TO FLIP-FLOP!!!! I MUST BE MAFIA!!!

Captain Frisk is mostly right-- I use the randomizer for initial points of discussion, and my first vote is damn near meaningless. And in my defense, yet again it *did* provoke discussion.

Note that in Mafia I I did not stick with my random vote when it became inconsequential: I switched it when my vote actually mattered.

As for the request to stop Mafia I-II references, I will cease them for now. When the games conclude, I will almost certainly reference them. Sucks for those who did not play in rounds 1-2, but I could reference some Aristotle philosophy for all I cared and the "disadvantage" of not having read it is the same.

Now, I forget who posted this, but one compelling reason is making me not want to lynch Morgrim; He was already lynched as a townie first round, and I would personally be really upset if such a thing happened to me twice in a row.

I really, really think that one (and only one) of the people that voted for me is mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 30, 2012, 11:45:21 pm
OMG IM GOING TO FLIP-FLOP!!!! I MUST BE MAFIA!!!

Captain Frisk is mostly right-- I use the randomizer for initial points of discussion, and my first vote is damn near meaningless. And in my defense, yet again it *did* provoke discussion.

Note that in Mafia I I did not stick with my random vote when it became inconsequential: I switched it when my vote actually mattered.

As for the request to stop Mafia I-II references, I will cease them for now. When the games conclude, I will almost certainly reference them. Sucks for those who did not play in rounds 1-2, but I could reference some Aristotle philosophy for all I cared and the "disadvantage" of not having read it is the same.

Now, I forget who posted this, but one compelling reason is making me not want to lynch Morgrim; He was already lynched as a townie first round, and I would personally be really upset if such a thing happened to me twice in a row.

I really, really think that one (and only one) of the people that voted for me is mafia.

If the random vote was for the sake of provoking discussion, that's fine.

You say you think that just one of the people that voted for you is Mafia.  What about the people that voted for Morgrim?  What about the people who haven't voted?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 30, 2012, 11:53:51 pm
OMG IM GOING TO FLIP-FLOP!!!! I MUST BE MAFIA!!!

Captain Frisk is mostly right-- I use the randomizer for initial points of discussion, and my first vote is damn near meaningless. And in my defense, yet again it *did* provoke discussion.

Note that in Mafia I I did not stick with my random vote when it became inconsequential: I switched it when my vote actually mattered.

As for the request to stop Mafia I-II references, I will cease them for now. When the games conclude, I will almost certainly reference them. Sucks for those who did not play in rounds 1-2, but I could reference some Aristotle philosophy for all I cared and the "disadvantage" of not having read it is the same.

Now, I forget who posted this, but one compelling reason is making me not want to lynch Morgrim; He was already lynched as a townie first round, and I would personally be really upset if such a thing happened to me twice in a row.

I really, really think that one (and only one) of the people that voted for me is mafia.

If the random vote was for the sake of provoking discussion, that's fine.

You say you think that just one of the people that voted for you is Mafia.  What about the people that voted for Morgrim?  What about the people who haven't voted?

Against Morgrim? I don't know. I'm not mafia, I don't think Captain is mafia... maybe Yuma, but its a random suspicious which is what I was just posting against.

People who haven't voted? Well.. if I think at most one are within the O-and-Morgrim Groups, I wonder what I think about nonvoters  ;)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 31, 2012, 12:02:56 am
eHalcyon, from a pure math standpoint, O is probably right that one Mafia has voted for him. 3/13 is almost 1/4. So ok, not quite down to the 3 that voted him, but taking into consideration how Mafia play, it's a good hunch. Same goes for 3 votes on Morgrim. Likely there was a Mafia in each group.

Guaranteed? No. But likely. Now, if O means he thinks a specific person in his voters is Mafia, he probably means me (counter-suspecting and all, especially if O is town). And honestly? That's fine. He has every right to. I came after him hard, and stand by my points. I'm glad he's finally taken the time to explain himself better now.

This brings me along to my next thought. If O is actually town, and I am town, and there is a Mafia amongst him and his three accusers, that only leaves Morgrim and Jotheonah. Since I'm not really suspicious of Morgrim, that leaves Jotheonah.

Jotheonah, I want to speak with you. You voted on O first, because you found him "annoying". Not a great reason. And you jumped off (for a decent reason) quickly. It almost feels like you're trying too hard to be town (and it worked at first, I +1'd you). Please respond.

For now, Unvote because he actually seems more willing to help now. (Though I completely understand if he continues to suspect me. Absolutely his right).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 31, 2012, 01:21:26 am
Wasn't questioning O's hunch, just wondering about his thoughts on the others.  If you want to go purely on math -- there were 6 who voted, 7 who hadn't, so 1 voting for either O or Morgrim, 1 not voting at all, and 1 could go either way.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 31, 2012, 01:26:23 am
Wow, a couple new pages since the last post I read. Gonna review for a bit and hopefully get a more substantive post in before I go to bed.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 31, 2012, 02:31:10 am
Okay, since I have a lot of mafia games going at once, in this game I am aiming to do fewer posts but more substance per post. I think that's more helpful anyway, since there are so many people writing comments and it is a little hard to even keep everyone straight. What I have done so far is to separate people into categories of how I see them behaving. These aren't necessarily "he's suspicious, he's not" categories, just one way of looking at everybody.

Stalwarts:
Jothonah
Voltgloss
Galzria
This group contains people who I feel I know better than other people. All three are exceedingly intelligent and analytical players. They are assets to the town. The down side to them is they are more dangerous if they are mafia. However, I may have a better idea whether they are mafia relative to other people. In any case, none have irritated me or caused me to grow suspicious of them yet.

Odd Balls:
O
Morgrim7
Everyone makes an odd comment now and then, but these two players stand out at the moment. Both chose pure, true random and voted based on it. To be fair, there was no evidence that either vote would lead to a kill. O's vote was for Morgrim, Morgrim's for Def. I don't think that either player behaved in a particularly helpful way, nor do I think their actions make them likely mafia. In fact, they were probably too strange to be mafia. Although Morgrim is so all over the place, I'm not sure I could recognize Mafia Morgrim in any scenario.

Participants:
Eevee
Michaeljb
Dsell
eHalycon
Captain_Frisk
This is the group of people (all new players) who have been somewhat active. And all of them, to some extent, have done what I consider "mafia middle-grounding." That's when they say something like, "WHat this person did here was suspicious, but then it was also not suspicious." Or they say something serious and then walk it back a bit with a joke. Obviously, this is something everybody does--I do it too--and it's not like a giveaway automatic mafia thing. But I tend to think in a game like this, with this many people, the mafia will want to be posting an "average" number of posts, that make bold claims but not crazy claims, that draw some specific targets but don't pursue them too hard. And lots of emoticons (And oh my goodness does Galzria do that too). So, I'm kind of looking at the people in this group more closely than the others. But we'll see. (Oh, and some of the people in this group have definitely done this more than others. I'd be interested to know if they know that.)

MIA:
def
yuma
I haven't heard enough from these people to really form an opinion of them. Both got votes already, but I think that was just by accident. Really, I think if they were mafia they might post a bit more.

If my characterizations seem off, please say something. Say something anyway. Just trying to stir the pot a bit.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 31, 2012, 02:49:05 am
Robz, would you like to respond to the suspicions I put forth in #304?

In your other games (a thousand pardons) you seem to be a Stalwart. I knooow that you have your hands full with all of these games, but in this game you yourself would fit into the "participant" category. Just like you accuse the rest of us participants of doing, you are playing the middle ground. You seem to be unique in the category, because while you fit the suspicions you would be an extremely dangerous mafia to have around.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 31, 2012, 03:12:45 am
I agree with your assessments Robz.  I would add that your "Stalwarts" have not been particularly stalwart in this game, but that's because it's the first day and they're still tied up in the other games.  As for me, for better or worse, this is just how I play.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 31, 2012, 03:17:40 am
I agree with your assessments Robz.  I would add that your "Stalwarts" have not been particularly stalwart in this game, but that's because it's the first day and they're still tied up in the other games.  As for me, for better or worse, this is just how I play.

Hey, I take issue with that! (And just for you Robz, ;))
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 31, 2012, 03:51:14 am
Rereading the thread but didn't quite finish, going to bed now that it's almost 2am my time, will post tomorrow.
So this post has some substance, I can at least say that I think robz's classification of jtotheonah is off, rereading his posts he seems more "participant."

More to come tomorrow.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: def on May 31, 2012, 04:28:05 am
If we had to vote tomorrow I may vote def because I've seen like NOTHING from him and certainly not anything since things got a bit more serious.

You've seen nothing of me for some reasons.
a) If I have nothing useful to say, I don't say anything. You won't see any flavor-only posts from me.
b) That's the problem with the game. There are people who seem to play it 4 hours a day, and other who don't or can't or won't. Since my last post, it have been two nights for me and one day where I barely had enough time to read the x new pages, not to speak of the y pages to read now. It's not easy to get in on the discussion if the topic you want to address is three pages old.

This is not meant to defend me especially, but addresses all other players who are considered, let's say, mildly suspicious, because they have ominous things like "work" or post in three other games and play a few games Dominion without posting here. Even if some of that was meant to be ironic.

The original aim for players was to post "at least once every 48 hours", minimum, that is. I don't say that I will post every two days only, especially when things really get started, but please don't expect everyone else to post a big, insightful article several times a day either when there is nothing much to say. Only carefully reading and drawing conclusions without posting already takes more time than some may have expected.

Random lynch: They are NOT unhelpful. They are if every player votes randomly and someone gets lynched this way. But not if few players do so and the rest follows. Let's say 3 players vote randomly and 2 pick the same person. This still needs 5 players to non-randomly vote for this person, either providing reasons or not. At the end of the day, you see who voted whom and why, who has casted the final vote, and so on. This is helpful information on day 2.

And even no lynch is achieved, at least discussion starts about how unhelpful randomly voting is, which means randomly voting was helpful because it caused the discussion.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: def on May 31, 2012, 05:46:49 am
No edit rule makes me look at stupid grammatical errors I didn't think I was capable of producing. :(
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 31, 2012, 08:07:42 am
Quick reply to G before work.

I was bating O. He didn't seem to be taking the game seriously, I thought a few votes on his head would change that. It did. Look how he's been playing lately. As soon as he looked to be in any real danger I unvoted.  Just like my "exercise" post, I'm looking for ways to generate meaningful replies for analysis. I think it's working.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 31, 2012, 09:14:57 am
I was excited to see 2 new pages of posts, but it looks like the fire has settled down.

If I had to vote, it would be for either jotheonah or Galzria - as I assume any time we start hammering someone, the mafia is going to want to have a mix of guys in... some early, some late - as someone pointed out, it would be pretty bad for the votes to be 5,6,7.  I've already un-voted Morgrim, so that leaves jotheonah and Galzria.

And because I think that vague accusations of suspicion are meaningless without some real meat in the game.

VOTE: jotheonah - for being ok with killing a bad townie.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 31, 2012, 09:53:54 am
CF, did you see my unvote?

If I were "ok with killing him" wouldn't I have left my vote there, instead of abandoning my own bandwagon right when it was picking up speed? Come on. I just explained what I was doing there.  Now if it comes down to deadline and I have ZERO mafia suspicions, at that point I will absolutely advocate that we kill an unhelpful townie - since at that point they're just as likely to be mafia as anyone else, and they're also annoying. That's just being pragmatic. But I'm not going to kill someone I think is town right now, which is why I changed my vote.

Captain Frisk, what kind of real meat are you hoping to see on Day 1?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 31, 2012, 09:54:46 am
I am slightly suspicious of Jotheonah over the O exchange, but not enough to vote him. To clarify, my reasons:

- Easy on: He was the first to vote, but kinda jumped into an ongoing exchange without really adding much reasoning outside O annoying him. He mostly reiterated my already voiced concerns.

- Easy off: Don't get me wrong here, I do respect unvotes when people are planning on going dark. But it just seemed to come so suddenly, and was generally before O started being helpful. It felt like a "eh, this is going nowhere and I don't want to seem suspicious" move.

Still, J, I appreciate your efforts to drive day 1 conversation. Robz may be right that amongst the "second game" players, we are less tentative and more willing to "get our hands dirty" (yes, a Mafia'ish quote) as it were. I think everybody will get to be this way, but I know I was afraid to talk at the start of MY first game, and now look at me! I won't shut up!

I still suspect you though. Unlike Robz, I'm probably MORE suspicious out of the gates towards people who have played before. They'll have a better idea and understanding of what TO say, and what NOT to say, and that's dangerous.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 31, 2012, 10:52:44 am
CF, did you see my unvote?

If I were "ok with killing him" wouldn't I have left my vote there, instead of abandoning my own bandwagon right when it was picking up speed? Come on. I just explained what I was doing there.  Now if it comes down to deadline and I have ZERO mafia suspicions, at that point I will absolutely advocate that we kill an unhelpful townie - since at that point they're just as likely to be mafia as anyone else, and they're also annoying. That's just being pragmatic. But I'm not going to kill someone I think is town right now, which is why I changed my vote.

Captain Frisk, what kind of real meat are you hoping to see on Day 1?

I did see your unvote, and to be honest - like Galzria, my suspicions are not strong... however with 7 required and 0 on you currently, I don't view my vote on you as especially risky.

My general thinking is that a statement of suspicion is easily shrugged off / ignored etc.  There is no sense of commitment.  It's difficult (without getting out pen and paper) to track who suspects which other players and look for patterns between them.  A vote however, is tallied - its a permanent thing.  We can easily see which players voted together.  As more and more votes tally up - more and more information accrues in a way that doesn't in a vague "I'm suspicious of <X>" way.  I would suggest that at this stage (low vote counts without crazy accusations etc. like Ozle vs. TINAS on M1D2) suspicion without voting is an anti-town play.  It lets you point the finger in a non committal way. 

As we start to get up on a 3-4 votes on a single individual - then my mind changes, and votes are suddenly alot more dangerous - and thus suspicious.

So for now - I'm going to leave my vote.  If a bandwagon gets rolling and my suspicions are assuaged, then I'll unvote before things get out of hand.


Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 31, 2012, 11:37:01 am
I am slightly suspicious of Jotheonah over the O exchange, but not enough to vote him. To clarify, my reasons:

- Easy on: He was the first to vote, but kinda jumped into an ongoing exchange without really adding much reasoning outside O annoying him. He mostly reiterated my already voiced concerns.

- Easy off: Don't get me wrong here, I do respect unvotes when people are planning on going dark. But it just seemed to come so suddenly, and was generally before O started being helpful. It felt like a "eh, this is going nowhere and I don't want to seem suspicious" move.

I still don't quite understand how jumping OFF a bandwagon is a mafia move. If it was to avoid suspicion ... well, well done me because it clearly made me MORE suspicious, not less. Otherwise, once a mafia's vote goes down, especially if the wagon still has fuel, I don't expect them to move it.

I envisioned a nightmare scenario where I went to bed with my vote and a few others on O and woke up to find I'd helped lynch town. Pretty unlikely, I know, but I'm still happy not to have risked it.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 31, 2012, 12:17:50 pm
My general thinking is that a statement of suspicion is easily shrugged off / ignored etc.  There is no sense of commitment.  It's difficult (without getting out pen and paper) to track who suspects which other players and look for patterns between them.  A vote however, is tallied - its a permanent thing.  We can easily see which players voted together.  As more and more votes tally up - more and more information accrues in a way that doesn't in a vague "I'm suspicious of <X>" way.  I would suggest that at this stage (low vote counts without crazy accusations etc. like Ozle vs. TINAS on M1D2) suspicion without voting is an anti-town play.  It lets you point the finger in a non committal way. 

Well, I don't agree. Suspicion without voting is, I think, preferable, though admittedly hard to keep track of. But I'm a little concerned that, "Hey let's have more votes, more votes everywhere! Don't just accuse, vote!" is something the mafia would say.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 31, 2012, 12:35:47 pm
Robz, would you like to respond to the suspicions I put forth in #304?

In your other games (a thousand pardons) you seem to be a Stalwart. I knooow that you have your hands full with all of these games, but in this game you yourself would fit into the "participant" category. Just like you accuse the rest of us participants of doing, you are playing the middle ground. You seem to be unique in the category, because while you fit the suspicions you would be an extremely dangerous mafia to have around.

Sure. Here is your post #304:

Well the thing is I really wasn't very suspicious of O when I wrote the response to his post, I was more frustrated with his unwillingness to move past pure randomness. Since that I have become both more and less suspicious with him but ATM he's seeming town to me.

If we had to vote tomorrow I may vote def because I've seen like NOTHING from him and certainly not anything since things got a bit more serious.

But I think I would actually vote for Robz888 because he seems to be really trying hard to blend in during this game. I know that he's involved with all three other forum games but even when he has posted he has seemingly lacked conviction. Except for the mafia, we're all pretty much in the dark here. Yet it looks to me like he is intentionally trying only to fit in while not adding terribly much. This seems a little out of place and thus a little suspicious.

I'm not trying to blend in this game, I think it's just a side effect of so many people saying so much (much of it not important, until more recently). If I railroad over everything everybody says all of the time, I'm not going to learn anything. So I'm poking, prodding, gathering my suspicions. It may not look like the way I've played in other games--I do make conscious changes, and there are more people here, and I'm stretched a little thinner--and it's definitely in the ballpark of Participant behavior.

And... you are near the top on my list of suspicions, as you seem to have guessed. Your posts nicely fit the model I outlined, with a mix of serious and then taking-it-back plus humor and emoticons. Frequent but not too frequent.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on May 31, 2012, 12:39:11 pm
With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Morgrim7 (2) - O, yuma
O (1) - Morgrim7
jotheonah (1) - Captain_Frisk

Not Voting (9) - Robz, def, Dsell, Eevee, michaeljb, Voltgloss, eHalcyon, jotheonah, Galzria
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on May 31, 2012, 12:41:48 pm
Deadline: 1 Week So June 3

Insomniac, what time (and timezone) is our deadline on June 3?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 31, 2012, 12:54:52 pm
I still suspect you though. Unlike Robz, I'm probably MORE suspicious out of the gates towards people who have played before. They'll have a better idea and understanding of what TO say, and what NOT to say, and that's dangerous.
Well, I don't agree. Suspicion without voting is, I think, preferable, though admittedly hard to keep track of. But I'm a little concerned that, "Hey let's have more votes, more votes everywhere! Don't just accuse, vote!" is something the mafia would say.
Galzaria, I completely agree with you. For some reason he almost seems to give immunity to those he's played with while acknowledging that you would all be very dangerous to have as mafia. Practically ignoring that possibility seems very strange. I'm also a bit baffled by the statement above, Robz. I do agree that a premature bandwagon filled with a bunch of nonchalant votes is dangerous, but votes are of course the backbone of the game, and they are not inappropriate when well-founded.

That statement and several others of yours recently appear to me to be your way (as mafia, if that's the case) to raise your banner against the leaders of the town. You are taking these normal functions like getting people to vote and "making bold claims" and labeling them as suspicious behavior. Like I said, this looks like a mafia way to ensnare the vocal town.

And... you are near the top on my list of suspicions, as you seem to have guessed. Your posts nicely fit the model I outlined, with a mix of serious and then taking-it-back plus humor and emoticons. Frequent but not too frequent.

Show me a post since things got more serious (~page 10 or so) where I've used humor to take anything back or used any emoticon at all. I post when I have something to say, I don't want to bog down those who can't get on the forum too often.

Vote: Robz888

Suspicious suspicious. Your statements all seem very off. You're giving me a real mafia vibe.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 31, 2012, 12:56:21 pm
You would have needed 6, J. If 6 got on me (and it was clear that I would probably (80%+) be lynched) my plan was to self-hammer and hopefully demonstrate to the town exactly what NOT to do. I'm still not sure whether that would have been a good move on my part: I would have given up myself, but hopefully revised some of the town's voting patterns.

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 31, 2012, 12:59:55 pm
Also, to clarify, I somewhat agree with Robz when he says that suspicion without voting is preferable, but only when it works. And frankly, since it takes 7 to lynch, I'm not too concerned anymore about sending one or two votes someone's way. The baffling thing is that he is pinning voting as mafia behavior. Well...yeah, I mean sure they want more votes, but everyone's gotta vote, and you really can't say that everyone is suspicious when they vote based off of convictions.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: yuma on May 31, 2012, 01:09:49 pm
After re-reading Mafia II, I'm going to agree with Dsell regarding Morgrim's "Unorthodox Posting" and UNVOTE.  I really don't like the concept of a unverifiable random vote, especially given that we were starting to have some real discussion, but doing that after the votes started to pile up AND everyone had already railed on O for it strikes me as Unorthodox Play, rather than Scummy.

My vote for Morgrim7 was very much based on your vote and conversation with him that led him to cast a random vote himself in what I saw as a panicked and defensive move.  You yourself said after his vote that this behavior justified your vote. I am wondering what your reasoning is for unvoting? Can you expand a little more than you did in the quote above. I am having a hard time following the reasoning behind it.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: yuma on May 31, 2012, 01:10:15 pm
Above was supposed to be addressed to Frisk if you couldn't tell
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 31, 2012, 01:34:49 pm
After re-reading Mafia II, I'm going to agree with Dsell regarding Morgrim's "Unorthodox Posting" and UNVOTE.  I really don't like the concept of a unverifiable random vote, especially given that we were starting to have some real discussion, but doing that after the votes started to pile up AND everyone had already railed on O for it strikes me as Unorthodox Play, rather than Scummy.

My vote for Morgrim7 was very much based on your vote and conversation with him that led him to cast a random vote himself in what I saw as a panicked and defensive move.  You yourself said after his vote that this behavior justified your vote. I am wondering what your reasoning is for unvoting? Can you expand a little more than you did in the quote above. I am having a hard time following the reasoning behind it.

No problem:  In short: "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence." - (Attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte)

1. I was about to go to bed, and I didn't want to leave a vote hanging when he was at 3

2. DSell's post reminded me to go back to the game you didn't want to reference - but sorry - it's additional information about a player - so its fair game, just like seeing someones most recent activity in the forum at large vs. in game... it lets you draw additional conclusions. 

I voted for him without this information - to me Morgim looked like he was inflating his post count with drivel.  When he random voted, it just confirmed my suspicions.

Then DSell reminded me that Morgim was in the other game - and played somewhat erratically - including a self hammer as vanilla townie - which I do agree is a explicitly bad play - the only thing you know FOR SURE as a vanilla townie is that the game is worse off with you dead. This lead me to believe that Morgrim isn't necessarily a sophisticated player - at which point attribution of suspicious behavior had an easier explanation - Hanlon's Razor.

As other's have pointed out: O is also difficult to get a read on.  With him - I suspect that this is intentional - since even if he is town - the Mafia may not want to night kill him because he stirs up the pot so much.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on May 31, 2012, 01:56:56 pm
Just a quick note while I have a minute.

If 6 got on me (and it was clear that I would probably (80%+) be lynched) my plan was to self-hammer and hopefully demonstrate to the town exactly what NOT to do. I'm still not sure whether that would have been a good move on my part: I would have given up myself, but hopefully revised some of the town's voting patterns.

If you are town, self-hammering yourself is bad play, because it deprives the town of important knowledge - specifically, the knowledge of who would have cast the hammering vote. 
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 31, 2012, 02:08:13 pm
Just a quick note while I have a minute.

If 6 got on me (and it was clear that I would probably (80%+) be lynched) my plan was to self-hammer and hopefully demonstrate to the town exactly what NOT to do. I'm still not sure whether that would have been a good move on my part: I would have given up myself, but hopefully revised some of the town's voting patterns.

If you are town, self-hammering yourself is bad play, because it deprives the town of important knowledge - specifically, the knowledge of who would have cast the hammering vote.

Maybe it's a point born of experience, but I felt the same way reading that. Still, I've been on O my share, so had decided not to say anything if I was the only person who found this strange. What I find odd, is I'm SURE he knows this. He has indicated more than once that he has followed M-II. I can't believe he will have missed Morgrim's self-lynching as a Vanilla Townie. Hum.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 31, 2012, 02:10:46 pm
No self-hammering, please. Never again.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on May 31, 2012, 02:11:10 pm
FYI all, Mafia I just finished.  So those who didn't feel right commenting on other games that were still pending - well, Mafia I at least is fair game now.

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on May 31, 2012, 02:11:41 pm
Deadline: 1 Week So June 3

Insomniac, what time (and timezone) is our deadline on June 3?

11:59pm PDT
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 31, 2012, 02:38:47 pm
Ok so this is a few pages old now, but in going back through each player's posts one thing that stood out to me was Morgrim7's behavior before the vote. Specifically, in a couple of his flavorful journal entries he said he was not going to vote until he had more information (#194 and #236). Then after O had random voted him, and Frisk joined in for Morgrim making unhelpful posts (#251), Morgrim's reaction was to unhelpfully post and vote random(#252, #254), casting aside that earlier notion of waiting for more information. It seems like a really panicked response, and why would he panic if he had nothing to hide?

Like Frisk says with the attributed to Napoleon quote, this could just be incompetence, but it feels weird to me.

And Morgrim's more recent vote for O strikes me as "Oh, you voted for me? Well I'll vote for you." And Morgrim has wanted O to defend his view for random voting (#297), but I feel that he did: he said it was done to generate discussion (which it clearly has) and importantly, he would change his vote when it matters (#318). I'm not sure what more Morgrim could be looking for from O.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 31, 2012, 02:46:15 pm
Ok so this is a few pages old now, but in going back through each player's posts one thing that stood out to me was Morgrim7's behavior before the vote. Specifically, in a couple of his flavorful journal entries he said he was not going to vote until he had more information (#194 and #236). Then after O had random voted him, and Frisk joined in for Morgrim making unhelpful posts (#251), Morgrim's reaction was to unhelpfully post and vote random(#252, #254), casting aside that earlier notion of waiting for more information. It seems like a really panicked response, and why would he panic if he had nothing to hide?

Like Frisk says with the attributed to Napoleon quote, this could just be incompetence, but it feels weird to me.

And Morgrim's more recent vote for O strikes me as "Oh, you voted for me? Well I'll vote for you." And Morgrim has wanted O to defend his view for random voting (#297), but I feel that he did: he said it was done to generate discussion (which it clearly has) and importantly, he would change his vote when it matters (#318). I'm not sure what more Morgrim could be looking for from O.

There is a perfectly good explanation for Morgrim's behavior: He is crazy. Not mafia, not townie, not special role, just crazy.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 31, 2012, 02:49:08 pm
Just a quick note while I have a minute.

If 6 got on me (and it was clear that I would probably (80%+) be lynched) my plan was to self-hammer and hopefully demonstrate to the town exactly what NOT to do. I'm still not sure whether that would have been a good move on my part: I would have given up myself, but hopefully revised some of the town's voting patterns.

If you are town, self-hammering yourself is bad play, because it deprives the town of important knowledge - specifically, the knowledge of who would have cast the hammering vote.

Yeah, saying he's going to self-hammer is enough for me. 

VOTE: O

Re: Morgrim... a plausible explanation is that he did indeed panic, but not because he had something to hide.  As others have pointed out, it would really, really suck if he got day-1 lynched two games in a row!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 31, 2012, 02:53:30 pm
Ok so this is a few pages old now, but in going back through each player's posts one thing that stood out to me was Morgrim7's behavior before the vote. Specifically, in a couple of his flavorful journal entries he said he was not going to vote until he had more information (#194 and #236). Then after O had random voted him, and Frisk joined in for Morgrim making unhelpful posts (#251), Morgrim's reaction was to unhelpfully post and vote random(#252, #254), casting aside that earlier notion of waiting for more information. It seems like a really panicked response, and why would he panic if he had nothing to hide?

Like Frisk says with the attributed to Napoleon quote, this could just be incompetence, but it feels weird to me.

And Morgrim's more recent vote for O strikes me as "Oh, you voted for me? Well I'll vote for you." And Morgrim has wanted O to defend his view for random voting (#297), but I feel that he did: he said it was done to generate discussion (which it clearly has) and importantly, he would change his vote when it matters (#318). I'm not sure what more Morgrim could be looking for from O.

There is a perfectly good explanation for Morgrim's behavior: He is crazy. Not mafia, not townie, not special role, just crazy.

Crazy? Yes. But I still like the guy, and think he's nice. :)

On a more serious note (I know, jokes, emoticons, AND serious points, all in ONE post!?! OMGMAFIA), I'm not AS suspicious of O as I was yesterday, but still would like to hear an explanation regarding self-lynching "to prove a point" as I understand it. Also, still watching Jotheonah.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 31, 2012, 03:00:04 pm
On a more serious note (I know, jokes, emoticons, AND serious points, all in ONE post!?! OMGMAFIA), I'm not AS suspicious of O as I was yesterday, but still would like to hear an explanation regarding self-lynching "to prove a point" as I understand it. Also, still watching Jotheonah.

I tried to mentally think of a situation in which self lynching made sense... and failed to do so.  Maybe if everyone other than you had voted - lets say 3-3 with 7 players remaining - and you knew - 100% that the other player was a more powerful role than you - AND - one of the people voting for you was about to switch their vote, then maybe it would make sense.

On Day 1?  I feel like its more of a table flip as you look at nearly certain death.... You can't fire me... I QUIT!

Regarding O - I'm going to to go with crazy until something concrete says otherwise.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 31, 2012, 03:26:39 pm
Voting against whoever hammers the innocent person is a trap 90% of the time, unless Mafia are inept.

And self-hammering isn't to protect a power-role; it's to release information to the town by proving that I am a townie by ensuring I'm lynched. Honestly, it's still a very minor difference because if you have 6 you're probably dead anyways.

I find it funny that eHalycon voted for me for my position of self-hammering, as it may very well allow me to self hammer in a bit.  ;)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 31, 2012, 03:28:48 pm
Ok so this is a few pages old now, but in going back through each player's posts one thing that stood out to me was Morgrim7's behavior before the vote. Specifically, in a couple of his flavorful journal entries he said he was not going to vote until he had more information (#194 and #236). Then after O had random voted him, and Frisk joined in for Morgrim making unhelpful posts (#251), Morgrim's reaction was to unhelpfully post and vote random(#252, #254), casting aside that earlier notion of waiting for more information. It seems like a really panicked response, and why would he panic if he had nothing to hide?

Like Frisk says with the attributed to Napoleon quote, this could just be incompetence, but it feels weird to me.

And Morgrim's more recent vote for O strikes me as "Oh, you voted for me? Well I'll vote for you." And Morgrim has wanted O to defend his view for random voting (#297), but I feel that he did: he said it was done to generate discussion (which it clearly has) and importantly, he would change his vote when it matters (#318). I'm not sure what more Morgrim could be looking for from O.

There is a perfectly good explanation for Morgrim's behavior: He is crazy. Not mafia, not townie, not special role, just crazy.

Crazy? Yes. But I still like the guy, and think he's nice. :)

On a more serious note (I know, jokes, emoticons, AND serious points, all in ONE post!?! OMGMAFIA), I'm not AS suspicious of O as I was yesterday, but still would like to hear an explanation regarding self-lynching "to prove a point" as I understand it. Also, still watching Jotheonah.

Keep watching. I might do a trick.  :P
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 31, 2012, 03:32:17 pm
Voting against whoever hammers the innocent person is a trap 90% of the time, unless Mafia are inept.

And self-hammering isn't to protect a power-role; it's to release information to the town by proving that I am a townie by ensuring I'm lynched. Honestly, it's still a very minor difference because if you have 6 you're probably dead anyways.

I find it funny that eHalycon voted for me for my position of self-hammering, as it may very well allow me to self hammer in a bit.  ;)

Once again, I'm left feeling you are playing VERY anti-town, and I don't know exactly how to react. To your credit... well, you're being very transparent about your actions. But I don't know what else to say here. Terrible, terrible play to self-hammer.

You are the only person who knows your role. Lynching Mafia day 1 is better than lynching Town day 1. I don't *think* you would disagree with either?

SO, if you are town, in what way does chopping your OWN head off (and causing a town lynch) help the town?
SO, if you are Mafia, in what way does chopping your OWN head off (and causing a mafia lynch) help the Mafia?
SO, if you are any other Role, in what way does chopping your OWN head off (and causing whatever faction you're playing for) help your own faction?

No, no, no, no and NO. Gah! *Goes crazy*
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 31, 2012, 03:32:35 pm
Voting against whoever hammers the innocent person is a trap 90% of the time, unless Mafia are inept.

And self-hammering isn't to protect a power-role; it's to release information to the town by proving that I am a townie by ensuring I'm lynched. Honestly, it's still a very minor difference because if you have 6 you're probably dead anyways.

But, but... fallacies...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 31, 2012, 03:34:16 pm
SO, if you are any other Role, in what way does chopping your OWN head off (and causing whatever faction you're playing for) help your own faction?

Actually, this might be the answer we were looking for. Maybe he has a role that makes him more valuable to us dead, but he has to cast the ultimate vote himself. Suicide Cop or something?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 31, 2012, 03:35:23 pm
SO, if you are any other Role, in what way does chopping your OWN head off (and causing whatever faction you're playing for) help your own faction?

Actually, this might be the answer we were looking for. Maybe he has a role that makes him more valuable to us dead, but he has to cast the ultimate vote himself. Suicide Cop or something?

Could you provide more info? I'm not (and I know this is true of others) familiar with possible roles this could be true of.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on May 31, 2012, 03:38:31 pm
SO, if you are any other Role, in what way does chopping your OWN head off (and causing whatever faction you're playing for) help your own faction?

Actually, this might be the answer we were looking for. Maybe he has a role that makes him more valuable to us dead, but he has to cast the ultimate vote himself. Suicide Cop or something?

Could you provide more info? I'm not (and I know this is true of others) familiar with possible roles this could be true of.

Others may not be familiar with such a role, but O is.

I once again claim Jester.

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Jester

If the Jester gets lynched, he wins.

Further relevant reading:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=BBB%27s_Gambit
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 31, 2012, 03:40:24 pm
Well, that would make things complicated. Now we can't kill O at least until we've investigated him. Assuming we have a cop.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on May 31, 2012, 03:43:00 pm
First of all, sorry for being busy and not posting for a while. Just caught up with everything.. oh so much reading. Makes me forget the stuff I had to say four pages back.. should really try to get online every 5 hours or so to not miss out on stuff.

Oh well, I'll chime in with my hunches now:

Suspicious: johtheonah (Something feels very off here. I'll try to think of a way explain this when I have more time, I actually meant to just post a list now but I started writing the neutral column first and had something to say about everyone of those so I feel I've got to do the same here) > O (you've got to know that is bad bad town play.. kind of weird though, dont really think you would go that route if you were mafia either but.. eh, pretty confident that cant be a power townie role at least) > Morgrim (was my #1 suspect until someone posted he was just like this in some other game where he was town. Still not exaclty convinced but certainly helps his case)

Neutral: michaeljb (you post a lot yet I still dont remember any of your opinions. have you actually said much anything?), def (posting so little, hard to say), Galzria (posts a lot, some of it looks mafia-ish, some of it townish. undecided still but inclined to believe you're clean and sincere), Captain_Frisk (I find myself agreeing with a lot of your posts but am still not convinced. somehow it feels like you arent 100% honest / helping town as much as you could if you really wanted to)

I'm-pretty-sure-is-town: Voltgloss, Dsell (good, well-argumented posts that strongly make me feel like I can trust you. Either of these being mafia is a scary thought but I can't really see that being the case, it doesnt seem like either is holding any info back).

???: Robz, half the time you seem like a sure townie, then you go around and say something too stupid for a guy that smart and start looking suspicious again. Your playing style is very good for the game though, so if I was equally suspicious of you and someone else, I'd rather vote for the someone else.

If the lynch was tomorrow morning, I'd pick either O or johtheonah but hopefully we'll get more info before we have to cross that bridge. Everything still looks very puzzling, I find myself hoping I could be "sure" of someone so that I could really start to hammer that person instead of posting these somewhat vague thoughts (sorry guys, I really dont have anything better to offer). Mafia seems to be playing very well which makes me suspect the silent ones and the more experienced ones more (and johtheonah seems to be the only one of my 3 suspects above who fits either of these labels so arghhhh).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on May 31, 2012, 03:45:16 pm
I really dont think Insomniac would make us play with a jester, seems like a terrible terrible role. That would explain O's behaviour though..
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: yuma on May 31, 2012, 03:48:17 pm
SO, if you are any other Role, in what way does chopping your OWN head off (and causing whatever faction you're playing for) help your own faction?

Actually, this might be the answer we were looking for. Maybe he has a role that makes him more valuable to us dead, but he has to cast the ultimate vote himself. Suicide Cop or something?

Could you provide more info? I'm not (and I know this is true of others) familiar with possible roles this could be true of.

I didn't realize when I was signing up that the roles would be completely blind about the roles. I am going to say here and now that I don't like it. And if I had known it would be this way I would not have. What is the point of keeping everyone in the dark. Maybe it is more fun for advanced players, but I am not an advanced player.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 31, 2012, 03:48:28 pm
SO, if you are any other Role, in what way does chopping your OWN head off (and causing whatever faction you're playing for) help your own faction?

Actually, this might be the answer we were looking for. Maybe he has a role that makes him more valuable to us dead, but he has to cast the ultimate vote himself. Suicide Cop or something?

Could you provide more info? I'm not (and I know this is true of others) familiar with possible roles this could be true of.

Others may not be familiar with such a role, but O is.

I once again claim Jester.

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Jester

If the Jester gets lynched, he wins.

Further relevant reading:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=BBB%27s_Gambit

I don't think O would mention the Jester at all if he was one and planned to use that strategy. He mentioned the Jester earlier in this thread? Yeah, I don't think he would have done that. We might have killed him and never even guessed that's what it could be.

I am more capable of seeing him as a mafia whose plan was to make us suspect him of being the Jester so that we never kill him. The fact that he mentioned the Jester in the first place, and then proposed his self-hammering, would seem to support this.

So, these things bring me closer to wanting to lynch O, I guess.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: yuma on May 31, 2012, 03:51:25 pm
grrr grammar.

I didn't realize when I was signing up that the we would be completely blind about the roles. I am going to say here and now that I don't like it. And if I had known it would be this way I would not have signed up. What is the point of keeping everyone in the dark? Maybe it is more fun for advanced players, but I am not an advanced player.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 31, 2012, 03:52:55 pm
First of all, sorry for being busy and not posting for a while. Just caught up with everything.. oh so much reading. Makes me forget the stuff I had to say four pages back.. should really try to get online every 5 hours or so to not miss out on stuff.

Oh well, I'll chime in with my hunches now:

Suspicious: johtheonah (Something feels very off here. I'll try to think of a way explain this when I have more time, I actually meant to just post a list now but I started writing the neutral column first and had something to say about everyone of those so I feel I've got to do the same here) > O (you've got to know that is bad bad town play.. kind of weird though, dont really think you would go that route if you were mafia either but.. eh, pretty confident that cant be a power townie role at least) > Morgrim (was my #1 suspect until someone posted he was just like this in some other game where he was town. Still not exaclty convinced but certainly helps his case)

Neutral: michaeljb (you post a lot yet I still dont remember any of your opinions. have you actually said much anything?), def (posting so little, hard to say), Galzria (posts a lot, some of it looks mafia-ish, some of it townish. undecided still but inclined to believe you're clean and sincere), Captain_Frisk (I find myself agreeing with a lot of your posts but am still not convinced. somehow it feels like you arent 100% honest / helping town as much as you could if you really wanted to)

I'm-pretty-sure-is-town: Voltgloss, Dsell (good, well-argumented posts that strongly make me feel like I can trust you. Either of these being mafia is a scary thought but I can't really see that being the case, it doesnt seem like either is holding any info back).

???: Robz, half the time you seem like a sure townie, then you go around and say something too stupid for a guy that smart and start looking suspicious again. Your playing style is very good for the game though, so if I was equally suspicious of you and someone else, I'd rather vote for the someone else.

If the lynch was tomorrow morning, I'd pick either O or johtheonah but hopefully we'll get more info before we have to cross that bridge. Everything still looks very puzzling, I find myself hoping I could be "sure" of someone so that I could really start to hammer that person instead of posting these somewhat vague thoughts (sorry guys, I really dont have anything better to offer). Mafia seems to be playing very well which makes me suspect the silent ones and the more experienced ones more (and johtheonah seems to be the only one of my 3 suspects above who fits either of these labels so arghhhh).

BWUH? Man I don't mind being accused here and there, shows the town are on their toes and all that, but I just got cited as #1 suspicious person without any concrete (or even abstract) reasons given AT ALL.  Eevee, I was getting a town read off you, but who does that?

I want to believe you're just new and don't see how incredibly suspicious that kind of vague, unsubstantiated pseudo-accusation is.

Also, you say Mafia is playing well, but I'm not sure what that even means at this point. All we can say is that Mafia hasn't done anything unbelievably stupid.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 31, 2012, 03:54:36 pm
For the record: I have NOT been getting a town read from Eevee.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 31, 2012, 03:55:08 pm
Voting against whoever hammers the innocent person is a trap 90% of the time, unless Mafia are inept.

And self-hammering isn't to protect a power-role; it's to release information to the town by proving that I am a townie by ensuring I'm lynched. Honestly, it's still a very minor difference because if you have 6 you're probably dead anyways.

I find it funny that eHalycon voted for me for my position of self-hammering, as it may very well allow me to self hammer in a bit.  ;)

I can't see a threat of self-hammering as anything other than an attempt to get people to NOT put you at 6 votes.  Even now, people are becoming confused at your play and concerned that they're misreading your actions.  It's chaotic, and chaos helps the Mafia, not the Town.



@Eevee -- nothing about me?  Does that put me in your Neutral camp?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 31, 2012, 04:01:22 pm
Look at this quote:
And all of them, to some extent, have done what I consider "mafia middle-grounding." That's when they say something like, "WHat this person did here was suspicious, but then it was also not suspicious." Or they say something serious and then walk it back a bit with a joke.

Then read some of Robz' own words:
.. and yeah, I dont think I have anything to explain. I feel I've been one of the more helpful posters this far, dont really see any reason to suspect me. Why did you pick me to ask that question?
Just a feeling. Your posts seem to strike a Mafia-esque balance between purposeful and silly.

haha trying my best to be insightful and smart and coming out as silly, thats painful to hear :D

You are insightful. I meant that you are insightful and a little silly, which strikes me as mafia. But it could be that I am exaggerating how silly you are because you are a cute Pokemon.

Then:
So, I insist that pure random voting is the worst thing you can do for the town. O and Morgrim have done it. I ask you both: Why? Do you disagree with my analysis? Will you admit to being the mafia?

And:
For that reason, the true random voting is bad/unhelpful town behavior. So I was asking these bad/unhelpful town players to defend themselves. It doesn't mean I actually think they're mafia. I personally toss accusations around but reserve actual voting for the person I have settled on.

(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)
(Emphasis added)

Here he does both of the things he criticizes in the first quote. In addition, at the end of the last quote he says lynching town could be ok in some situations. Which I don't altogether disagree with (in the case of a townie being extremely unhelpful or distracting, which I don't think is yet the case here), but he was pretty transparently talking about O at that time, even though he had just said that he didn't think he was mafia.

Now, however, he is hopping aboard the O bandwagon.

I am more capable of seeing him as a mafia whose plan was to make us suspect him of being the Jester so that we never kill him. The fact that he mentioned the Jester in the first place, and then proposed his self-hammering, would seem to support this.

So, these things bring me closer to wanting to lynch O, I guess.

I don't really get exactly what O is doing, but he doesn't seem very much like mafia to me. He has done a lot to generate discussion, which is good. However, a LOT of Robz' posts have seemed not-quite-right to me. I could post several more quotes here but I'd really like to hear other people's input. Do most others (besides eevee) just get a town read from him? It's certainly possible that I'm barking up the wrong tree here but everything Robz posts is making me more suspicious to me, not less.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 31, 2012, 04:33:52 pm
I don't really get exactly what O is doing, but he doesn't seem very much like mafia to me. He has done a lot to generate discussion, which is good. However, a LOT of Robz' posts have seemed not-quite-right to me. I could post several more quotes here but I'd really like to hear other people's input. Do most others (besides eevee) just get a town read from him? It's certainly possible that I'm barking up the wrong tree here but everything Robz posts is making me more suspicious to me, not less.

Wow, I need to be more observant.  Really good observations.  The waffling on Eevee is interesting.  After all the subtle suspicion, add this quote:

For the record: I have NOT been getting a town read from Eevee.

Now I want to vote for two people.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 31, 2012, 04:35:33 pm
Here he does both of the things he criticizes in the first quote. In addition, at the end of the last quote he says lynching town could be ok in some situations. Which I don't altogether disagree with (in the case of a townie being extremely unhelpful or distracting, which I don't think is yet the case here), but he was pretty transparently talking about O at that time, even though he had just said that he didn't think he was mafia.

Now, however, he is hopping aboard the O bandwagon.

Quote from: Robz888 link=topic=2660.msg44693#msg44693 date=+ Attachments and other options 1338493708
I am more capable of seeing him as a mafia whose plan was to make us suspect him of being the Jester so that we never kill him. The fact that he mentioned the Jester in the first place, and then proposed his self-hammering, would seem to support this.

So, these things bring me closer to wanting to lynch O, I guess.

I don't really get exactly what O is doing, but he doesn't seem very much like mafia to me. He has done a lot to generate discussion, which is good. However, a LOT of Robz' posts have seemed not-quite-right to me. I could post several more quotes here but I'd really like to hear other people's input. Do most others (besides eevee) just get a town read from him? It's certainly possible that I'm barking up the wrong tree here but everything Robz posts is making me more suspicious to me, not less.

Yes, I have done many of the things that I accuse you and Eevee of doing. Obviously, though, I don't suspect myself.

Earlier when I talked about O, I meant that he wouldn't be a terrible loss for the town if we couldn't decide who to vote for. Later, though, this Jester business has me thinking he might be mafia. Thus a change in how I see him.

It's interesting how razor-focused on me you are. And I don't mean it in a condescending "it's interesting... because you are the mafia" sort of way. Just interesting.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: yuma on May 31, 2012, 04:36:06 pm
After re-reading Mafia II, I'm going to agree with Dsell regarding Morgrim's "Unorthodox Posting" and UNVOTE.  I really don't like the concept of a unverifiable random vote, especially given that we were starting to have some real discussion, but doing that after the votes started to pile up AND everyone had already railed on O for it strikes me as Unorthodox Play, rather than Scummy.

My vote for Morgrim7 was very much based on your vote and conversation with him that led him to cast a random vote himself in what I saw as a panicked and defensive move.  You yourself said after his vote that this behavior justified your vote. I am wondering what your reasoning is for unvoting? Can you expand a little more than you did in the quote above. I am having a hard time following the reasoning behind it.

No problem:  In short: "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence." - (Attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte)

1. I was about to go to bed, and I didn't want to leave a vote hanging when he was at 3

2. DSell's post reminded me to go back to the game you didn't want to reference - but sorry - it's additional information about a player - so its fair game, just like seeing someones most recent activity in the forum at large vs. in game... it lets you draw additional conclusions. 

I voted for him without this information - to me Morgim looked like he was inflating his post count with drivel.  When he random voted, it just confirmed my suspicions.

Then DSell reminded me that Morgim was in the other game - and played somewhat erratically - including a self hammer as vanilla townie - which I do agree is a explicitly bad play - the only thing you know FOR SURE as a vanilla townie is that the game is worse off with you dead. This lead me to believe that Morgrim isn't necessarily a sophisticated player - at which point attribution of suspicious behavior had an easier explanation - Hanlon's Razor.

As other's have pointed out: O is also difficult to get a read on.  With him - I suspect that this is intentional - since even if he is town - the Mafia may not want to night kill him because he stirs up the pot so much.
I can understand your reasoning now, I just don't completely agree with it, and I don't agree with Robz888's quote about it.
There is a perfectly good explanation for Morgrim's behavior: He is crazy. Not mafia, not townie, not special role, just crazy.
There is no way to know if Morgrim is town or not. He might be crazytown, crazymafia, crazyrole. As such his crazy playing isn't a good enough cover.
Here I am going to go out on a limb. If I were Morgrim7 and if I were town I would play especially carefully to not bring attraction to myself. I wouldn't be making myself all that noticeable by panic voting, etc... And if I were Morgrim7 and were Mafia I would be playing erratically in the hopes of continuing his "personality" from previous games to lessen suspicion.

Maybe I am reading too much into this, especially as he hasn't commented yet today. It would be nice to see how he behaves once the pressure is off from others, but until I see more from him my suspicion will remain.

Status:
Suspicious: Morgrim7, Robz888 (I see a lot of the logic others have mentioned about being suspicious about him.)
Not suspicious: Michaeljb
Vote: Morgrim7
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 31, 2012, 04:37:51 pm
I don't really get exactly what O is doing, but he doesn't seem very much like mafia to me. He has done a lot to generate discussion, which is good. However, a LOT of Robz' posts have seemed not-quite-right to me. I could post several more quotes here but I'd really like to hear other people's input. Do most others (besides eevee) just get a town read from him? It's certainly possible that I'm barking up the wrong tree here but everything Robz posts is making me more suspicious to me, not less.

Wow, I need to be more observant.  Really good observations.  The waffling on Eevee is interesting.  After all the subtle suspicion, add this quote:

For the record: I have NOT been getting a town read from Eevee.

Now I want to vote for two people.


WAIT.  SCRATCH THIS.

For some reason I thought he said that he HAD been getting a town read from Eevee.  Wow.  Reading fail.

I take back what I said about Robz.  Yes he's middling like the rest of us, but he admitted to it as well.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on May 31, 2012, 04:47:07 pm
@johtheonah
I realize that (now) posting that so quickly without reading&thinking it through wasnt my greatest idea. I was just eager to post something after my long absence.
As I said, I had so much to read I kind of forgot the earlier stuff and just remembered the mental note I made when someone (ah, seems this was actually you) asked "who would you vote if you had to vote now".. and that was to vote for you, which then made you #1 on the list. Reading your posts again, the stuff that irked me:

- being slightly too hasty to vote for O. I'm highly suspicious of him too, but saying

(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)

In light of this, and the fact that if O is ok with a random lynch, he must be ok with being lynched, and the fact I don't like tone and he's been getting annoying, Vote: O

feels like you are very excited to find a reason to lynch someone way too quickly. Lynching someone for being annoying is just stupid (unless you are mafia in which case its a handy excuse).

..but now I realize that was the only thing and I way overreacted, especially considering you unvoted pretty quickly and explained that quite clearly and rationally. I dont think you would abandon the bandwagon if you were mafia and O wasnt, so uhm, I guess I missed that? Reading through so much, it's hard to stay concenctrated.

@eHalcyon
Yeah, I guess not remembering you even play puts you on the neutral column. Same goes for yuma whom I apparently forgot as well.

and @jotheonah
When I said I think mafia is playing well I meant exaclty that - in the irl games I've played its pretty common that a mafia member just completely fuqs up and reveals himself at some point. I thought us having pretty much no clue meant that mafia is doing well but maybe its just normal in these forum games.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 31, 2012, 04:48:36 pm
Earlier when I talked about O, I meant that he wouldn't be a terrible loss for the town if we couldn't decide who to vote for. Later, though, this Jester business has me thinking he might be mafia. Thus a change in how I see him.

Now that Mafia I is done... ignoring power roles, who was more useful and correct in Mafia I?  ;)

And yes, if I'm a power role of any sort, I'm lying about hammering myself. I wouldn't do that if I were mafia, cop, jailkeeper etc.

I'll calm your fears now: I'm NOT jester. I'm 99% sure there is no jester. Insomniac isn't that cruel of a host.

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 31, 2012, 04:50:41 pm


Earlier when I talked about O, I meant that he wouldn't be a terrible loss for the town if we couldn't decide who to vote for. Later, though, this Jester business has me thinking he might be mafia. Thus a change in how I see him.

I posted that as a joke in both Mafia I and III, and didn't expect it to be taken seriously. But OK, any more logs you can throw onto the O-Bonfire.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 31, 2012, 04:53:06 pm
Earlier when I talked about O, I meant that he wouldn't be a terrible loss for the town if we couldn't decide who to vote for. Later, though, this Jester business has me thinking he might be mafia. Thus a change in how I see him.

Man, I know I've been overanalyzing a lot in this game but I just wouldn't read too much into the jester comment. I mean, he said "once again" (oh here I go analyzing) so it was obviously a reference to something else.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 31, 2012, 04:56:38 pm
Status:
Suspicious: Morgrim7, Robz888 (I see a lot of the logic others have mentioned about being suspicious about him.)
Not suspicious: Michaeljb
Vote: Morgrim7

Sorry if I missed this, but what has michealjb done to earn (alone amongst all of us) your "Not suspicious" spot?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 31, 2012, 05:03:32 pm
@eHalcyon
Yeah, I guess not remembering you even play puts you on the neutral column. Same goes for yuma whom I apparently forgot as well.

Unremembered.  :'(
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 31, 2012, 05:09:40 pm
@eHalcyon
Yeah, I guess not remembering you even play puts you on the neutral column. Same goes for yuma whom I apparently forgot as well.

Unremembered.  :'(

I bet noone forgets that I'M in this game  ;D
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 31, 2012, 05:13:06 pm
@eHalcyon
Yeah, I guess not remembering you even play puts you on the neutral column. Same goes for yuma whom I apparently forgot as well.

Unremembered.  :'(

I bet noone forgets that I'M in this game  ;D

+1 for being funny. And using a emoticon, which SOME people (Robz) frown on.  :'(

I'm not trying to make an O bonfire, and I WANT to think you're just playing like TINAS (which worked out well for him AND you guys) - But much like he was day 1, you just seem so determined to be unhelpful to the town with some of your posts! Still, I'm not voting you, and you're not my primary suspicion at this point. But you make me very uncomfortable. Fair enough?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 31, 2012, 05:14:36 pm
@eHalcyon
Yeah, I guess not remembering you even play puts you on the neutral column. Same goes for yuma whom I apparently forgot as well.

Unremembered.  :'(

I bet noone forgets that I'M in this game  ;D

+1 for being funny. And using a emoticon, which SOME people (Robz) frown on.  :'(

I'm not trying to make an O bonfire, and I WANT to think you're just playing like TINAS (which worked out well for him AND you guys) - But much like he was day 1, you just seem so determined to be unhelpful to the town with some of your posts! Still, I'm not voting you, and you're not my primary suspicion at this point. But you make me very uncomfortable. Fair enough?

Correction: Your PLAYSTYLE up until this point make me very uncomfortable. Not YOU. You seem like a fine upstanding member of the community. Didn't want there to be confusion. (ie. Don't take anything personally, please! I would feel bad)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 31, 2012, 05:15:05 pm
I'm not playing like TINAS, he's far more crazy then I. I mean.. he was OUR FREAKING COP while doing all of that... insane...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 31, 2012, 05:23:39 pm
Just a reminder (although it was posted 1 page back) everyone that the deadline is this Sunday.  I don't know about the rest of you - but weekend time for me is typically family time and less computer time - which means less frequent reading and posting.

I am becoming increasingly suspicious of RobZ - expressly lobbying against us voting works in Mafia's favor (see Mafia II No Lynch Discussion - as well as any mafia theory site regarding nolynch option - Eg: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=4044628

Then there was this:

Earlier when I talked about O, I meant that he wouldn't be a terrible loss for the town if we couldn't decide who to vote for. Later, though, this Jester business has me thinking he might be mafia. Thus a change in how I see him.

I'm not a mafia pro - but even I knew that Jester was extremely unlikely to be in the game - especially since our moderator told us there was nothing too crazy.  I don't see how an experienced player could read anything into O's Jester claim as something other than a joke...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: yuma on May 31, 2012, 05:35:15 pm
Sorry if I missed this, but what has michealjb done to earn (alone amongst all of us) your "Not suspicious" spot?

You didn't miss it. I did. He and I seem to be on the same line of thinking and as I know I am not suspicious, I believe that he is not either.
Ok so this is a few pages old now, but in going back through each player's posts one thing that stood out to me was Morgrim7's behavior before the vote. Specifically, in a couple of his flavorful journal entries he said he was not going to vote until he had more information (#194 and #236). Then after O had random voted him, and Frisk joined in for Morgrim making unhelpful posts (#251), Morgrim's reaction was to unhelpfully post and vote random(#252, #254), casting aside that earlier notion of waiting for more information. It seems like a really panicked response, and why would he panic if he had nothing to hide?

Like Frisk says with the attributed to Napoleon quote, this could just be incompetence, but it feels weird to me.

And Morgrim's more recent vote for O strikes me as "Oh, you voted for me? Well I'll vote for you." And Morgrim has wanted O to defend his view for random voting (#297), but I feel that he did: he said it was done to generate discussion (which it clearly has) and importantly, he would change his vote when it matters (#318). I'm not sure what more Morgrim could be looking for from O.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 31, 2012, 05:48:31 pm
Yeah I had completely misread the deadline...this is actually pretty tight timeframe for such a big game.

Because of this, it is really important that people reread everything and try to form an opinion. If we can't make a decision in time, having a no lynch is not a good option. Also, if we stumble on a mafia first round (like I hope I have with Robz), it is important that the town rallies against this person. Assuming the three mafia do not vote for one of their own, it takes 7 of the 10 presumed townies to lynch a mafioso. That's a lot of organization for a bunch of people who don't trust each other, but I'm sure it can be done.

Roleclaiming may also occur, and it's tough because we don't have a set number of roles. One thing that may be truer in this game than others is to be wary of eleventh-hour roleclaims. Even if they are true, it puts the town in a situation where we have to somehow all be online and get 7 votes for someone else or else risk a no lynch situation. So for those of you with roles, if you think you must claim, PLEASE try to avoid claiming at the last possible minute (before the day 1 deadline)...this is a very tough situation because no one wants to claim before they must and it's bad for the town too...BUT we risk a no lynch and it could (and I think it should) look suspicious.

tl;dr We should try to be early and somewhat ahead of schedule with our lynch. Putting it off till the last minute means there is a real chance of a no lynch happening, especially if someone role-claims. Thus, I think these role-claims should...probably still be accepted in the short term but should cast real suspicion on that person if their last-minute role-claim led to a no lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 31, 2012, 05:57:32 pm
Just a reminder (although it was posted 1 page back) everyone that the deadline is this Sunday.  I don't know about the rest of you - but weekend time for me is typically family time and less computer time - which means less frequent reading and posting.

I am becoming increasingly suspicious of RobZ - expressly lobbying against us voting works in Mafia's favor (see Mafia II No Lynch Discussion - as well as any mafia theory site regarding nolynch option - Eg: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=4044628

Then there was this:

Earlier when I talked about O, I meant that he wouldn't be a terrible loss for the town if we couldn't decide who to vote for. Later, though, this Jester business has me thinking he might be mafia. Thus a change in how I see him.

I'm not a mafia pro - but even I knew that Jester was extremely unlikely to be in the game - especially since our moderator told us there was nothing too crazy.  I don't see how an experienced player could read anything into O's Jester claim as something other than a joke...

Because I don't know how to read O wanting to kill himself unless he has something to gain by doing it. His whole "now the town would know I'm innocent" makes no sense.

I am absolutely not in favor of "No Lynch." We will, and we must, lynch. All I said was that accusations in my view suffice instead of voting, until it's time to vote. Just a personal preference, I suppose.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 31, 2012, 05:57:57 pm
Why did I give a tl;dr option? Forget that, this is mafia! Everyone should be reading everything! If you skipped to the tl;dr, go back and read the rest of my post!  ;D
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on May 31, 2012, 06:05:50 pm
I am absolutely not in favor of "No Lynch." We will, and we must, lynch. All I said was that accusations in my view suffice instead of voting, until it's time to vote. Just a personal preference, I suppose.

Well - it's Thursday evening, and we're lynching on Sunday - so in my mind it's time to start thinking hard about voting.

UNVOTE

You were hiding from this game, and you only showed up when called out, and even while agreeing with the need to lynch - are still opposed to casting votes and trying to move forward.  I am joining DSell and casting my vote.

VOTE: Robz888
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on May 31, 2012, 06:09:13 pm
I am absolutely not in favor of "No Lynch." We will, and we must, lynch. All I said was that accusations in my view suffice instead of voting, until it's time to vote. Just a personal preference, I suppose.

Well - it's Thursday evening, and we're lynching on Sunday - so in my mind it's time to start thinking hard about voting.

UNVOTE

You were hiding from this game, and you only showed up when called out, and even while agreeing with the need to lynch - are still opposed to casting votes and trying to move forward.  I am joining DSell and casting my vote.

VOTE: Robz888

I do feel the need to speak up here:

Please go back and read Robz in both Mafia-I, AND Mafia-II. He is VERY consistent in that he doesn't cast a vote until he's made a decision. I'm not defending him from any of your other points, and will review each in detail, but that is a VERY weak case to make against him and I highly encourage anybody considering Robz for that reason to look into his past first.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on May 31, 2012, 06:10:10 pm
I find it highly odd that Robz accepted my antics in mafia I but not mafia III. Why such a change?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 31, 2012, 06:21:04 pm
I do feel the need to speak up here:

Please go back and read Robz in both Mafia-I, AND Mafia-II. He is VERY consistent in that he doesn't cast a vote until he's made a decision. I'm not defending him from any of your other points, and will review each in detail, but that is a VERY weak case to make against him and I highly encourage anybody considering Robz for that reason to look into his past first.

I actually agree with this. Robz does tend to postpone voting until he is really really sure. Now, even if he were mafia and didn't care who the lynch was as long as it was town, he might delay to appear consistent. Robz' unwillingness to vote on his suspicions is not one of my primary concerns with him. Rather, he is walking down the middle of the road, making only weak accusations (eevee) and hopping on bandwagons (O) when the tide seemed to be turning this way.

Robz is exactly following the pattern he himself said we should look for in the mafia. Does he admit this? Yes, somewhat. Still, he has been wishy-washy, has said some questionable remarks that have struck me wrong, and has been generally not-that-helpful to the town. These are my primary concerns with him.

I'm also concerned that he may string things along as long as possible and when things are looking bad for him Sunday evening, say, "Ok guys I didn't want to reveal this but I am X-role." Which would let him survive another day, would probably mean a no-lynch, and (if everything goes how he would like) could win him some trust. And unless someone has the role that he claims, we can't verify the truth of his claims (until night at least, and then only if we happen to have the cop or some other similar role).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 31, 2012, 07:28:41 pm
It seems I have missed a lot. Wow. As a warning, I will only be able to post early in the morning and late at night for the next two days. With that said…
Unvote
Robz:
Encouraging people to post, eh? Careful, I walked on that ice in II, and let me tell you it is not forgiving. I do agree though, we must lynch sometime, whether today, or Sunday.
hmm...
Will post some more when I have thought a bit...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 31, 2012, 07:53:15 pm
Neutral: michaeljb (you post a lot yet I still dont remember any of your opinions. have you actually said much anything?)

This is about the only post where I really did say much of anything:

Ok so this is a few pages old now, but in going back through each player's posts one thing that stood out to me was Morgrim7's behavior before the vote. Specifically, in a couple of his flavorful journal entries he said he was not going to vote until he had more information (#194 and #236). Then after O had random voted him, and Frisk joined in for Morgrim making unhelpful posts (#251), Morgrim's reaction was to unhelpfully post and vote random(#252, #254), casting aside that earlier notion of waiting for more information. It seems like a really panicked response, and why would he panic if he had nothing to hide?

Like Frisk says with the attributed to Napoleon quote, this could just be incompetence, but it feels weird to me.

And Morgrim's more recent vote for O strikes me as "Oh, you voted for me? Well I'll vote for you." And Morgrim has wanted O to defend his view for random voting (#297), but I feel that he did: he said it was done to generate discussion (which it clearly has) and importantly, he would change his vote when it matters (#318). I'm not sure what more Morgrim could be looking for from O.

He might be crazy, he might just want to avoid being a day 1 lynch again, or he might be mafia.

I'm also somewhat suspicious of Robz, but I don't really have anything original to bring up on that front.
Don't know what to make of O, definitely not following his line of reasoning for the self-hammer.
Early on, jotheonah encouraged bold play and taking risks (#182), and I feel like his voting for O then backing down before (real life) night is pretty much the opposite behavior. Maybe I misinterpreted his earlier post.

And I've just seen Morgrim unvoted O; I'd like to know what Morgrim's thinking right now. It'd be nice to hear some rationale for the behavior I pointed out above.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on May 31, 2012, 08:26:35 pm
I advocated bold play, not stupid play. Leaving my vote on O would have been foolhardy.

For the record, here's how I read O's self-lynch comment (and I think if the rest of you read it closely instead of just OMG SELF LYNCH, you'll see this too.)

Paraphrase:
"If I am so unlucky as to gain six votes on myself on Day 1, I will cast the 7th vote myself. In doing so, I will serve as a sacrificial lamb, dying but teaching the town a valuable lesson about  not being careful with their votes. In this way I will help the town win, even though I'm helping lynch town."

It still doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, but that's how I read it and no one else seems to have gotten that out of it.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 31, 2012, 08:32:22 pm
I advocated bold play, not stupid play. Leaving my vote on O would have been foolhardy.

For the record, here's how I read O's self-lynch comment (and I think if the rest of you read it closely instead of just OMG SELF LYNCH, you'll see this too.)

Paraphrase:
"If I am so unlucky as to gain six votes on myself on Day 1, I will cast the 7th vote myself. In doing so, I will serve as a sacrificial lamb, dying but teaching the town a valuable lesson about  not being careful with their votes. In this way I will help the town win, even though I'm helping lynch town."

It still doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, but that's how I read it and no one else seems to have gotten that out of it.

I got that, but it doesn't make sense to me.  It's not an effective way of teaching a lesson.  And is the lesson even necessary?  It seems to me that people are in fact being careful with their votes, unless you consider it careless to vote for someone to stir conversation and then unvote when it looks like a wagon is starting.  Several people have done that already, including O himself.  Or at least that's the explanation we have for why he had voted randomly.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 31, 2012, 08:51:03 pm
Neutral: michaeljb (you post a lot yet I still dont remember any of your opinions. have you actually said much anything?)

This is about the only post where I really did say much of anything:

Ok so this is a few pages old now, but in going back through each player's posts one thing that stood out to me was Morgrim7's behavior before the vote. Specifically, in a couple of his flavorful journal entries he said he was not going to vote until he had more information (#194 and #236). Then after O had random voted him, and Frisk joined in for Morgrim making unhelpful posts (#251), Morgrim's reaction was to unhelpfully post and vote random(#252, #254), casting aside that earlier notion of waiting for more information. It seems like a really panicked response, and why would he panic if he had nothing to hide?

Like Frisk says with the attributed to Napoleon quote, this could just be incompetence, but it feels weird to me.

And Morgrim's more recent vote for O strikes me as "Oh, you voted for me? Well I'll vote for you." And Morgrim has wanted O to defend his view for random voting (#297), but I feel that he did: he said it was done to generate discussion (which it clearly has) and importantly, he would change his vote when it matters (#318). I'm not sure what more Morgrim could be looking for from O.

He might be crazy, he might just want to avoid being a day 1 lynch again, or he might be mafia.

I'm also somewhat suspicious of Robz, but I don't really have anything original to bring up on that front.
Don't know what to make of O, definitely not following his line of reasoning for the self-hammer.
Early on, jotheonah encouraged bold play and taking risks (#182), and I feel like his voting for O then backing down before (real life) night is pretty much the opposite behavior. Maybe I misinterpreted his earlier post.

And I've just seen Morgrim unvoted O; I'd like to know what Morgrim's thinking right now. It'd be nice to hear some rationale for the behavior I pointed out above.
-I had what seemed like sufficient information at the time to vote.
-You do not think my points (and Galzria's) against random voting were reasonable?
-I think (I could very well be wrong) O was trying to avoid suspicion by saying that his vote was purely to arouse conversation. Arousing conversation could be achieved much easier by using Robz's strategy: vote off a hunch. Maybe provide evidence.
Sorry to seem defensive, but what do you do if someone lunges at you with a sword? Defend yourself right away before it hits, not wait around to see what happens. You already know what will happen. You will get skewered.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on May 31, 2012, 08:52:04 pm
Robz is exactly following the pattern he himself said we should look for in the mafia. Does he admit this? Yes, somewhat. Still, he has been wishy-washy, has said some questionable remarks that have struck me wrong, and has been generally not-that-helpful to the town. These are my primary concerns with him.

I'm also concerned that he may string things along as long as possible and when things are looking bad for him Sunday evening, say, "Ok guys I didn't want to reveal this but I am X-role." Which would let him survive another day, would probably mean a no-lynch, and (if everything goes how he would like) could win him some trust. And unless someone has the role that he claims, we can't verify the truth of his claims (until night at least, and then only if we happen to have the cop or some other similar role).

Yes, I am doing many of the things I said to look out for. I'm glad you noticed. I mean that sincerely. It tells me something about you. Do you know what I've learned about you, Dsell? You are good at choosing a target--I believe you chose me in post #304, long before I did any of the things you found suspicious, except for not posting enough--and then building a case against him. The thing is, you've been so direct with it, I'm a little baffled. I would expect the mafia not to show so much decisiveness in leading the charge against somebody. However, I would also not expect a town member to lead a decisive charge against a veteran who is one of the town's most helpful players (indeed, you have some evidence of my helpfulness at this point--look at Mafia I, where as the Jailkeeper, I was largely responsible for the deduction that got the town to lynch Axxle, the final mafia).

I think this vote is unlikely to kill a mafia member no matter what. But I think the town does worse than random by killing me, Jotheonah, Galzria, or Voltgloss, in absence of extreme suspicion.

But you seem to have extreme suspicions of me for... playing the way I told you the mafia would play? But then if you think I am mafia, why wouldn't you think I would lie to you about how the mafia would play?

Let me keep it simple: I think the mafia if they are among the new players, would be likely to post an average number of times, with some bold but hedgy accusations mixed with silliness. Obviously I do not think the mafia would CHOOSE to do that self-awarely, nor would I find it particularly suspicious if a veteran was doing that. For instance, i think that if J were mafia, he might behave a certain way... but it wouldn't be that way. He would have consciously molded his behavior to be different. So I was telling all of you what cues I was looking for in the new people, and I was also wondering if they might adjust their behavior accordingly.

I can't be too disappointed if you lynch me this round, as I've made it through many fun, arduous rounds in the other two games, but... I want the town to win, so I must implore you not to lynch me. I am useful to the town, and you will regret not having me next round.

If there are other more specific questions about me and my behavior, I would be happy to answer them. I didn't realize the lynch date was so soon at all--that's my mistake. So yes, I understand voting soon. We will have to. Though I'm not sure who I'd vote for at this point.

I will not be voting for Morgrim.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on May 31, 2012, 09:02:27 pm
Uhh, why not?

People, please do not let pitty stay your hand. If I am lynched, hey, it is a lesson learned. After all, this is just a game. :)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on May 31, 2012, 09:38:52 pm
I think this vote is unlikely to kill a mafia member no matter what. But I think the town does worse than random by killing me, Jotheonah, Galzria, or Voltgloss, in absence of extreme suspicion.

What about O?  Wasn't he a strong member of the town in Mafia I as well?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on May 31, 2012, 09:48:05 pm
You are good at choosing a target--I believe you chose me in post #304, long before I did any of the things you found suspicious, except for not posting enough--and then building a case against him. The thing is, you've been so direct with it, I'm a little baffled. I would expect the mafia not to show so much decisiveness in leading the charge against somebody. However, I would also not expect a town member to lead a decisive charge against a veteran who is one of the town's most helpful players (indeed, you have some evidence of my helpfulness at this point--look at Mafia I, where as the Jailkeeper, I was largely responsible for the deduction that got the town to lynch Axxle, the final mafia).

You are right and you are wrong. In post #304, I chose you intentionally, but I did not assume you were mafia at that point and did NOT have in mind to frame you as mafia. As town, that is pure stupidity without real evidence. But I only made that post because of Jotheonah's prompting. I thought his way of sparking discussion was a good idea so I figured I would play along, so I aired my very mild suspicion of you. The main reason I did it though, was to try to shake you up like you so often do in other games...it's a strategy I like. I wanted to poke and prod to see what kind of reaction you would give, because hey, it usually ends up being helpful information. And for me, it was! You reacted in what I perceive to be a fairly mafia way: not responding at first, making an insubstantial post as well as a more substantial one in which you laid out your perceptions (which included some veiled suspicion cast on myself and eevee) while not really giving us all that much to go on.

So, no, when I first cast suspicion on you, it was very mild suspicion because you didn't seem to play quite the same way as in the other games. All of your subsequent responses, however, have made you look more and more like mafia.

The thing that keeps getting me is that you're right. You WERE so helpful in Mafia I, even beyond being randomly assigned jailkeeper. You aggressively went after who you perceived to be mafia (even if you were wrong the first couple times) and were a shining champion for the town. You were very helpful. But in this game, you haven't seemed very pro-town at all. You aren't exactly anti-town, more like just there. Unhelpful. Contributing, but not much. Maybe it's only that it's day 1 and you haven't had much to go on but like we are all realizing we HAVE to vote soon. And still you are unsure. The only thing that is certain is that you're gonna be a nice guy and not vote Morgrim.

I think this vote is unlikely to kill a mafia member no matter what. But I think the town does worse than random by killing me, Jotheonah, Galzria, or Voltgloss, in absence of extreme suspicion.

"I think this vote is unlikely to kill a mafia member no matter what." But we would be so foolish not to try! Saying, "the town has no real chance of hitting mafia anyway so protect me!!" is the kind of just really unhelpful thing that seems so uncharacteristic of Town Robz. I would be very sad if an experienced town or certainly a town role were lynched, but you haven't done much this game to persuade me that we really really need you around.

But you seem to have extreme suspicions of me for... playing the way I told you the mafia would play? But then if you think I am mafia, why wouldn't you think I would lie to you about how the mafia would play?

You really can't lie about the way that mafia play because you've said similar things in the other games. Lying about that would be more incriminating than...well, hanging around in the background, like you were trying to do.

If I turn out to be wrong and lead your lynch and you turn out to be a townie, that would be very unfortunate. And I would expect a lot of suspicion to be cast on me, rightly so. But I trust that my posts thus far and future posts will be clear, well-reasoned, and show my support for the town.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 31, 2012, 10:37:37 pm
-I had what seemed like sufficient information at the time to vote.

In case I didn't make it clear, I was referring to the time you voted randomly for def, not when you voted O, and I'm not buying that you really had information then.

Quote
-You do not think my points (and Galzria's) against random voting were reasonable?

I'm not sure what this has to do with what I posted. I didn't say O was on the right side of that debate, I said he had presented a defense for himself, and in the post where you voted for him you said he hadn't defended himself.

Quote
-I think (I could very well be wrong) O was trying to avoid suspicion by saying that his vote was purely to arouse conversation. Arousing conversation could be achieved much easier by using Robz's strategy: vote off a hunch. Maybe provide evidence.

Conversation certainly was aroused after Captain_Frisk cast his vote, and you could even call his point #2 a "hunch." Unfortunately, you responded with the very behavior Frisk mentioned in his hunch.

Quote
Sorry to seem defensive, but what do you do if someone lunges at you with a sword? Defend yourself
right away before it hits, not wait around to see what happens. You already know what will happen. You will get skewered.

Uhh, why not?

People, please do not let pitty stay your hand. If I am lynched, hey, it is a lesson learned. After all, this is just a game. :)

So...a non-voting suspicion post is a sword which you need to defend yourself from so you don't get skewered, then a post saying not much about you other than the poster is not voting for you asking why...the crazy defense is starting to sound more believable.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on May 31, 2012, 10:38:21 pm
With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Morgrim7 (2) - O, yuma
O (1) - eHalcyon
Robz888 (2) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk

Not Voting (9) - Robz, def, Eevee, michaeljb, Voltgloss, jotheonah, Galzria, Morgrim7
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on May 31, 2012, 10:38:28 pm
[correction] ***is not voting for you makes you ask why...****
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 01, 2012, 12:26:06 am
So...a non-voting suspicion post is a sword which you need to defend yourself from so you don't get skewered, then a post saying not much about you other than the poster is not voting for you asking why...the crazy defense is starting to sound more believable.

Whats great about the crazy defense is that others make it for you!  All right folks - I'm off to bed - and with only 2 votes on Rob, I'm not especially nervous about an overnight hammer.  See you all tomorrow!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 01, 2012, 12:32:32 am

-I think (I could very well be wrong) O was trying to avoid suspicion by saying that his vote was purely to arouse suspicion

Oh yea, I've totally been attempting to avoid suspicion this game. That's been my primary strategy!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 01, 2012, 01:30:54 am
This is mostly unrelated but I really want to post this and I don't think anywhere is really appropriate for it.

From the Mafia II game:

Boy, you ARE drunk. You and me. If we were Mafia we would both vote Volt now and win.

The above is in reference to Robz.  I kind of wish that they would all vote for Robz, with the third voter quipping, "Robz, you are hammered!  8)"  Because, come on, that would be awesome.  Right?  Right?

Sorry.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 01, 2012, 01:47:58 am
This is mostly unrelated but I really want to post this and I don't think anywhere is really appropriate for it.

From the Mafia II game:

Boy, you ARE drunk. You and me. If we were Mafia we would both vote Volt now and win.

The above is in reference to Robz.  I kind of wish that they would all vote for Robz, with the third voter quipping, "Robz, you are hammered!  8)"  Because, come on, that would be awesome.  Right?  Right?

Sorry.

Send Axxle a PM, I believe he has a quicktopic discussing Mafia-II set up where you CAN talk about that game to others. (I think you can get the quicktopic link from Kuildeous as well).

With that said, I would find the above outcome amusing. But I can't say anything substantive about that game.

-----

On the topic of THIS game, which I CAN talk about here, I don't have anything really new to report. I don't find Robz's play to be as damning as some of you seem to, but I appreciate the effort that you're all putting into weaseling out Mafia. I think, for now, that he is town. I would actually be MORE surprised to see him be Mafia, than say a Town Role - Not that he would ever (nor should ever) admit to that unless dire circumstances arose. But he knows that.

Look, I don't know. But his play so far, while far from "innocent" has read like most town WANT to be - Not suspicious enough to be lynched, but suspicious enough for the Mafia to keep around. A good place to be to make good points that help the town. It's part of the reason that I dropped my vote on O, and while still cautious, haven't resubmitted it. I'm FAR more likely to suspect someone who is showing WAY Pro-Town than I am someone who is showing possible Mafia. It's just SMART play round 1. The Mafia aren't going to slip up. They aren't really going to give bad tells. They want to be as unsuspicious as possible. That's WHY I still strongly suspect Jotheonah. I don't think he's going to suddenly start acting Scummy, but I don't find his "I wanna help town! Go town! Yeah!" to be genuine.

Just my 2 coppers.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on June 01, 2012, 05:06:58 am

I've reread posts made so far in an effort to solidify my suspicions.  Work is calling though (or, more accurately, pinging insistently through e-mails) and so I don't have time now to lay out my analysis and vote.  (Yes, I do think that NOW we're far enough into the day, and have enough evidence to draw from, that it makes sense to vote our strongest suspicions.)

What I will say, because our posting times don't often overlap, is to Robz.  Robz, I like your analytical style a lot - as you know, it's similar to mine.  And our general views on mafia strategy issues are also aligned.  And yet... in this game, with respect to its substance, and going off of your posts made since I last posted substantively (#315)... I'm starting to get concerned about you.  I will lay out the reasons for my concerns this evening, before your usual midnight-and-later online time, so you can respond to them then.  In the meantime, I am looking forwarding to your response to Dsell's #405. 

And I am also hoping you can answer a couple of questions below, regarding this comment you made in #338 when responding to Dsell's suspicions voiced in #304 (after his request you do so in #325):

And... you are near the top on my list of suspicions, as you seem to have guessed. Your posts nicely fit the model I outlined, with a mix of serious and then taking-it-back plus humor and emoticons. Frequent but not too frequent.

- Why did you think Dsell "seem[ed] to have guessed" that you suspected him?
- Which posts of Dsell's fit the model you outlined in #324?
- You say Dsell was "near the top" of your suspicions list.  That suggests he was not AT the top.  Who was?  Are they still there?  If not, what has changed?

Robz, I trust you won't take this inquiry personally.  I do agree that, if you are Town, you're a great asset to the Town.  The flip side of that is, if you are Mafia (or SK), you could be the Town's worst nightmare.  So I'm hoping your responses allay my concerns, because I really don't like the alternative.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 01, 2012, 08:40:25 am
Look, I don't know. But his play so far, while far from "innocent" has read like most town WANT to be - Not suspicious enough to be lynched, but suspicious enough for the Mafia to keep around. A good place to be to make good points that help the town. It's part of the reason that I dropped my vote on O, and while still cautious, haven't resubmitted it. I'm FAR more likely to suspect someone who is showing WAY Pro-Town than I am someone who is showing possible Mafia. It's just SMART play round 1. The Mafia aren't going to slip up. They aren't really going to give bad tells. They want to be as unsuspicious as possible. That's WHY I still strongly suspect Jotheonah. I don't think he's going to suddenly start acting Scummy, but I don't find his "I wanna help town! Go town! Yeah!" to be genuine.

Just my 2 coppers.

Ok, I don't know about Robz, but I, as a townie, don't go into a game thinking "How can I be just helpful enough to my team to stay alive, but unhelpful enough to not be a mafia target?" I go in thinking "How can I help my team?" If, in the course of that, my team targets me, I will defend myself in order to get us back on the track of finding mafia. I think intentionally acting suspicious, for the sake of acting suspicious, which is what Galz is suggesting Robz is up to, is strictly anti-Town.  G and R are starting to look like possible scumbuddies. Can't think why else Galz would employ such a poor defense of Robz.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 01, 2012, 08:56:23 am
Read Davio's post #614 in M-I to understand what I mean J. I don't think he would AIM to play that way, but would be happy being in that situation. Yes, even as town.

And ask yourself this (you of all people should be qualified to answer), if Robz and I WERE a pair, how bad would our play be now to set ourselves out like you seem to be suggesting? You know we are both stronger players than that.

More and more you seem to want to shift the focus. The most Mafia'ish thing to do is go unnoticed. Be a "friend of the town". I'm a friend of the town because I AM town. I'm becoming less and less sure that applies to you.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 01, 2012, 09:33:03 am
Coming perilously close to rule-breaking here, but if M-II ends like I think it ends then it will prove that an early appearance of collusion is far from the end of the world for the mafia.  It's like a double-bluff. It's SO OBVIOUS that it couldn't be mafia behavior - we'd never be that obvious. And everyone buys it.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on June 01, 2012, 09:35:47 am
Coming perilously close to rule-breaking here, but if M-II ends like I think it ends then it will prove that an early appearance of collusion is far from the end of the world for the mafia.  It's like a double-bluff. It's SO OBVIOUS that it couldn't be mafia behavior - we'd never be that obvious. And everyone buys it.

Let's table that discussion until today's lynch results come in from M-II.  We're just waiting on the mod, who is on California time, so we're talking at least a couple of hours I'd expect.  Once the results come in, we'll know for sure who was right, and who was wrong, and about what.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 01, 2012, 09:48:20 am
Ok, I've been looking back at Robz's posts. I am going to agree with a lot of what has been said.

I'll add that twice now (first in his "Stalwarts" section and later in his defense) he's tried to lump me, Galz, Volt, and him together as a core group of Day 1 unlynchables.  I think he's hoping we'll come to his defense, and to somehow tie himself to whatever pro-town sentiment the rest of us has. As "O" has repeatedly pointed out, our status as helpful townies is very much in question given the disastrous outcome of our game. So the "don't lynch these helpful townies" angle rings hollow.  Excluding a large group of people from your suspect pool off the bat for largely irrelevant reasons is anti-Town. With Volt, I await your responses.


@Galzria: I could dismiss Eevee's flimsy attack as newbie waffling, but yours is just flimsy. You're literally saying I'm the most suspicious because I'm too consistently pro-town.  Most people just call that "being town."  But I don't even think you're mafia, because I don't make that much sense as a mafia target right now. So I really don't know what to think.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 01, 2012, 09:49:16 am
O, I don't know why I scare-quoted your name. I think it's some kind of copy-editor instinct around one-word names.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 01, 2012, 09:49:30 am
*one-LETTER names
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: yuma on June 01, 2012, 09:54:58 am
Michaeljb's #406 post succinctly explains why I continue to be suspicious of Morgrim7. Michaeljb explained it much better than I attempted to previously.

Morgrim7s behavior yesterday also continued to be strange. I am not going to say crazy because I don't necessarily think it is. I think it is a convenient excuse. In my previous post I suggested that Morgrim7 needed to answer questions, start learning some lessons and develop a strategy that did not reek of oddness if I was going to stop suspecting him. He failed at doing so. Is he crazy? Maybe... But crazy mafia is looking like more and more of a possibility.

On other note. I am not going to say I am not suspecting Robz888 anymore. I still do, but I think my suspicions are much lower than many of my fellows townspeople. I'll keep him on my radar, but I am not going to change my vote to him unless something drastic changes.

Suspicions: Robz888, Morgrim7
Not suspicious: Michaeljb
Vote: Mogrim7
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 01, 2012, 01:19:20 pm
With Mafia-II now at an end, it is open game for reference (very, very fun game). Allow me to start by pointing out that I have a GOOD feeling for how the Mafia work. And I stand by my stance that they want to appear active and important day 1, while giving off AS LITTLE (read: none) suspicion as possible. The people who draw attention to themselves in any (even minor) way are likely to be town. This was true in M-I. This was true in M-II. I have no reason to think it won't be true here. O pointed it out earlier when he said the Mafia will act like anything BUT Mafia day 1.

Yes J, my suspicion is on you because you are too strongly town day 1. Feels like you're trying to blend in and hide. Robz may be Mafia, but he is acting more like I would expect town to act, and more like he did in M-I where he WAS town.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 01, 2012, 01:24:37 pm
Take this from Mafia-II: People who write obscenely long posts of analysis are likely to be mafia, and shall be the targets of my votes.  ;)

I thought Galzria was writing tomes because he was an inept townie; he was a promafia.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 01, 2012, 01:27:23 pm
I will NOT be devoting that much effort here. I will still posts my thoughts, but I don't have the energy to play another game like that! I'm hoping this turns into more of an M-I game. Crazy, short, without all the essays.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 01, 2012, 01:34:18 pm
Seconded. We have two days til the deadline. Robz, some responses from you have been requested.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 01, 2012, 04:05:31 pm
Okay, here are answers to the several posts that raised questions about me since last I posted.

From Dsell:

You are good at choosing a target--I believe you chose me in post #304, long before I did any of the things you found suspicious, except for not posting enough--and then building a case against him. The thing is, you've been so direct with it, I'm a little baffled. I would expect the mafia not to show so much decisiveness in leading the charge against somebody. However, I would also not expect a town member to lead a decisive charge against a veteran who is one of the town's most helpful players (indeed, you have some evidence of my helpfulness at this point--look at Mafia I, where as the Jailkeeper, I was largely responsible for the deduction that got the town to lynch Axxle, the final mafia).

You are right and you are wrong. In post #304, I chose you intentionally, but I did not assume you were mafia at that point and did NOT have in mind to frame you as mafia. As town, that is pure stupidity without real evidence. But I only made that post because of Jotheonah's prompting. I thought his way of sparking discussion was a good idea so I figured I would play along, so I aired my very mild suspicion of you. The main reason I did it though, was to try to shake you up like you so often do in other games...it's a strategy I like. I wanted to poke and prod to see what kind of reaction you would give, because hey, it usually ends up being helpful information. And for me, it was! You reacted in what I perceive to be a fairly mafia way: not responding at first, making an insubstantial post as well as a more substantial one in which you laid out your perceptions (which included some veiled suspicion cast on myself and eevee) while not really giving us all that much to go on.

I don't think that's a mafia-ish way to respond. I think a mafia-ish way to respond would be to launch into an essay on why I was not actually suspicious. Because I have nothing to hide, I didn't care to respond to every little needling of me. That might be hypocritical--I'm needling people, and looking for their responses--but I don't care. My idea this round was to say less than usual, because I'm one of the louder players and a two-game veteran, and I didn't want to dominate the conversation, specifically because there were so many new voices. I was looking to stir the pot and not really say much about myself. Of course you have had other designs for me, so now I must defend myself in extended fashion.

So, no, when I first cast suspicion on you, it was very mild suspicion because you didn't seem to play quite the same way as in the other games. All of your subsequent responses, however, have made you look more and more like mafia.

I try to switch up my play in every game, but I think it's fair to say that my play so far in this game is much more similar to Mafia I, where I was the Jailkeeper than in Mafia II, where I was the Mafia Rolecop. My analysis of my own play is that I tend to filter my comments much less when I am a townie. Let me explain: in Mafia II, I would write a whole post and then delete it before posting it. I did this probably a dozen times. I was being so careful about what I said. Every word was danger. I didn't do that at all in Mafia I, and I haven't done that in Mafia III. Not being more careful about what I say has brought a lot of suspicion on me, I see that now, but if I were the mafia I would have been more careful. Since I am not the mafia, I have not been careful.

The thing that keeps getting me is that you're right. You WERE so helpful in Mafia I, even beyond being randomly assigned jailkeeper. You aggressively went after who you perceived to be mafia (even if you were wrong the first couple times) and were a shining champion for the town. You were very helpful. But in this game, you haven't seemed very pro-town at all. You aren't exactly anti-town, more like just there. Unhelpful. Contributing, but not much. Maybe it's only that it's day 1 and you haven't had much to go on but like we are all realizing we HAVE to vote soon. And still you are unsure. The only thing that is certain is that you're gonna be a nice guy and not vote Morgrim.

Well, I was helpful in Mafia I in the following ways: I thought the bandwagon against theory was very wrong (and I was correct), and I figured out who the other mafia was going into the last round, blocking his kill. But I was wrong about TINAS in rounds 1 and 2. I have not yet formed strong suspicions, so I was sitting back, and needling. I actively went after Morgrim in game 2, remember, because I was the mafia.

There are more players in this game, and two of them stand out as crazy: O and Morgrim. Going after the crazy people has not yet yielded a mafia kill in the first round. Therefore, I do not think Morgrim is the mafia. O's "kill myself" thing has greater potential to be some sort of higher strategy, in my view, than Morgrim's craziness. Which is why I am still suspicious of O. But, like, just a little bit.

I think this vote is unlikely to kill a mafia member no matter what. But I think the town does worse than random by killing me, Jotheonah, Galzria, or Voltgloss, in absence of extreme suspicion.

"I think this vote is unlikely to kill a mafia member no matter what." But we would be so foolish not to try! Saying, "the town has no real chance of hitting mafia anyway so protect me!!" is the kind of just really unhelpful thing that seems so uncharacteristic of Town Robz. I would be very sad if an experienced town or certainly a town role were lynched, but you haven't done much this game to persuade me that we really really need you around.

I still think we are unlikely to kill a mafia member this round. The other 2 games failed to do so: in this game, it will be harder. I didn't say we shouldn't try. And I do think I am worth protecting. I will be valuable to the town next round. If you don't think you need me, it hurts my feelings I suppose. Perhaps the town would be better off without you, though, since you are barking up the wrong tree!

But you seem to have extreme suspicions of me for... playing the way I told you the mafia would play? But then if you think I am mafia, why wouldn't you think I would lie to you about how the mafia would play?

You really can't lie about the way that mafia play because you've said similar things in the other games. Lying about that would be more incriminating than...well, hanging around in the background, like you were trying to do.

If I turn out to be wrong and lead your lynch and you turn out to be a townie, that would be very unfortunate. And I would expect a lot of suspicion to be cast on me, rightly so. But I trust that my posts thus far and future posts will be clear, well-reasoned, and show my support for the town.

Well, I really, really don't like you trying to weasel out of your responsibility for this, because you are wrong. To be honest, you are playing like me in Mafia II, and I am your round one Morgrim.

Next, Volt:

And I am also hoping you can answer a couple of questions below, regarding this comment you made in #338 when responding to Dsell's suspicions voiced in #304 (after his request you do so in #325):

And... you are near the top on my list of suspicions, as you seem to have guessed. Your posts nicely fit the model I outlined, with a mix of serious and then taking-it-back plus humor and emoticons. Frequent but not too frequent.

- Why did you think Dsell "seem[ed] to have guessed" that you suspected him?
I phrased it that way to be sort of a purposefully nasty retort to him, to see what he would do. It doesn't make much sense in any context. He suspected me before I suspected him. And I didn't even particularly suspect him until his most recent statements. I wanted to see how he would react.

- Which posts of Dsell's fit the model you outlined in #324?

Here is one:

What's this?! We were having a perfectly lovely conversation about avatars and begging for twigs, and now people are suddenly calling for a hanging??  :o  What a mad world we live in!

Seriously though, I'm glad to see more substantive posts! I do hope we can hear a little more from the quieter ones, and it doesn't seem to me like throwing a couple votes out early is putting us in too much danger of an early hammer. It seems like a terribly obvious mafia move to throw 2 or 3 bandwagon votes on a person in the first round to bring the hammer down. Nobody wants to actually lynch right now, we just want strong reactions. And strong reactions are good because a mafia player might be more likely to slip if they have to really defend themselves.

The mafia face an early game dilemma. What to say? They have to say SOMETHING. It can't be total nonsense or overly serious, so they say something like this. Note: This is how I would expect a new player who is the mafia to post. It's not how I would expect Voltgloss, if he were mafia, to post.

- You say Dsell was "near the top" of your suspicions list.  That suggests he was not AT the top.  Who was?  Are they still there?  If not, what has changed?

The amount of suspicion separating the person I most suspect (Dsell, now), from the person I least suspect (Morgrim) is not big. I would not vote this weekend if we didn't have the deadline approaching. And by the way, I didn't notice the deadline until yesterday. Before, Dsell was just one of a couple new players who I could see being mafia, with Eevee, Captain Frisk, michaeljb, etc. His campaign against me did not start to make me suspect him until this most recent post of his, where he's already trying to wash his hands of mislynching me.

Robz, I trust you won't take this inquiry personally.  I do agree that, if you are Town, you're a great asset to the Town.  The flip side of that is, if you are Mafia (or SK), you could be the Town's worst nightmare.  So I'm hoping your responses allay my concerns, because I really don't like the alternative.

I am taking it personally within the context of the game of Mafia, where I think I am both very useful and not very suspicious. I'm not, like, real-life taking it personally, of course not. And I certainly used and abused your trust in Mafia II, so on one hand I sort of understand your suspicion, but not really other people's at this point.

Next, Jotheonah:

Ok, I've been looking back at Robz's posts. I am going to agree with a lot of what has been said.

I'll add that twice now (first in his "Stalwarts" section and later in his defense) he's tried to lump me, Galz, Volt, and him together as a core group of Day 1 unlynchables.  I think he's hoping we'll come to his defense, and to somehow tie himself to whatever pro-town sentiment the rest of us has. As "O" has repeatedly pointed out, our status as helpful townies is very much in question given the disastrous outcome of our game. So the "don't lynch these helpful townies" angle rings hollow.  Excluding a large group of people from your suspect pool off the bat for largely irrelevant reasons is anti-Town. With Volt, I await your responses.

"Tried to lump... together as a core group of Day 1 unlynchables" is exactly what I was doing. If one of you were giving me a strong mafia read, I would obviously not do that. But since I don't have particular reasons to suspect you more than others, I would rather keep all of you around. I know how you play, and will be better able to evaluate you next round then I will eHalycon or Eevee or yuma. And that's a good thing for me and for the town. And in fact I MUST "exclude a large group of people from your suspect pool," because there are so many people. Excluding large groups of people on the slimmest of reasons is unfortunately a necessary feature of round 1. I mean, come on, nobody has particularly good reasons for anything round 1. In the other two games, three people--theory, TINAS, and Morgrim--faced round 1 lynch wagons, and none were mafia. Doesn't that tell you something?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on June 01, 2012, 04:25:46 pm
With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Morgrim7 (2) - O, yuma
O (1) - eHalcyon
Robz888 (2) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk

Not Voting (9) - Robz, def, Eevee, michaeljb, Voltgloss, jotheonah, Galzria, Morgrim7
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 01, 2012, 05:15:58 pm
Well, I really, really don't like you trying to weasel out of your responsibility for this, because you are wrong. To be honest, you are playing like me in Mafia II, and I am your round one Morgrim.

His campaign against me did not start to make me suspect him until this most recent post of his, where he's already trying to wash his hands of mislynching me.

Before I do anything else, let me address probably your biggest charge against me, that I am already trying to wash my hands of mislynching you. I was speaking in hypotheticals. The only thing that I know for certain in this game is that I am town. Any of the rest of you could be mafia. Most other people (besides the mafia) will be in this same boat. So everything is in hypotheticals really. I'm not trying to cover myself, I'm not trying to wash my hands of this lynch: I think you are the most likely mafia. Based on the evidence so far, I believe that is the best conclusion. There's obviously the possibility that I'm wrong, I was acknowledging that. Only the mafia can be certain of the roles of other players.

To be honest, you are playing like me in Mafia II, and I am your round one Morgrim.

I disagree that I am playing like you in Mafia II. There are 2 key differences (and I'm sorry to those of you who aren't familiar with Mafia II): I have been very vocal and laid out clear reasons for why your behavior seems mafia, and not just "strange." (Which was one of the primary reasons for why Morgrim was killed, and Morgrim has been acting in some similar ways here.) Building from that, the 2nd key difference is Morgrim's strangeness. He confused a lot of people in Mafia II and Robz really wasn't the first one to raise suspicions. In particular, Voltgloss gave the first serious vote to Morgrim and Robz hopped on the bandwagon after. By contrast, it seems that I was the first to pick up on some of Robz' behavior which bothered me, though it was not widely realized nor has it bothered people greatly. Why, if I were mafia, would I "choose a target" whose behavior did not seem highly suspicious or obnoxious? I could easily have campaigned against O or Morgrim, whose behavior fits those descriptions much better than Robz'.

Now that Mafia II is over, I can reveal that in Mafia II, I suspected Robz of being mafia from very early on. It was for virtually the same reasons as here: he played very differently from Mafia I, was less helpful to the town, and seemed to be playing it much more safely. Voltgloss noticed this same thing almost immediately when Robz did not come out guns blazing like he said he tends to do.

I believe that despite what Robz is saying, he is in fact playing very much like he was in Mafia II, where he was a mafia Rolecop. Here is a comparative quote to illustrate that idea:

(From Mafia II, bold emphasis mine)
On comments that I am playing differently because I didn't come out of the gate swinging as hard as in the other game:
That's a fair observation. I'm actually glad to whoever made it. We have to be vigilant for suspicious things like that. I don't know if my explanation will satisfy you, but I did do a couple posts at the beginning to try to stir the pot, though not quite as strongly as last game... and then I went to sleep. And I just woke up. I am on Eastern Time. Generally available between noon and 5:00 PM, gone until midnight, back online until 3:00 AM, and up around noon. I'm a journalist, so that's my schedule.

(From this game, emphasis mine)
Yes, I am doing many of the things I said to look out for. I'm glad you noticed. I mean that sincerely.

Ok so this isn't completely damning but he pretty clearly has had *very* similar reactions in the face of accusations. Much of his other behavior has been similar as well.

Also notice that in the first quote he had been accused of not playing as hard and not posting as much. These both can be easily explained because he was mafia. Like he said above: "in Mafia II, I would write a whole post and then delete it before posting it. I did this probably a dozen times. I was being so careful about what I said. Every word was danger." So, fewer posts and less brazen. The same can be true here, although we do have more players and other games were going on. Whether that is a legitimate/convenient excuse, I will not try to convince anyone one way or another.

The comparisons do not end there but I don't want this to become a novel-writing game like Mafia II was. One final thing I will say though, is that in Mafia II, Robz falsely roleclaimed. If he is mafia and if it is looking like he is going to be lynched, I expect him to roleclaim here as well. This does not mean we should proceed with the lynch necessarily...that will be a tricky issue that I think we should deal with when we get there...but I urge all of you to move quickly to avoid any eleventh hour situations where we simply can't get enough people online to perform a lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 01, 2012, 05:25:51 pm
With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Morgrim7 (2) - O, yuma
O (1) - eHalcyon
Robz888 (2) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk

Not Voting (9) - Robz, def, Eevee, michaeljb, Voltgloss, jotheonah, Galzria, Morgrim7


Reading Robz's post, I see alot of "I'm a good player so don't lynch me", as well as descriptions of what mafia play looks like - but nothing that's very helpful.  I'm having a tough time accepting this view of clearly mafia or clearly town play - since mafia would clearly go out of their way to appear town.

What I find interesting here is how we have votes on 3 people - 2 "crazies" and RobZ - and yet there is not even a hint of bandwagoning.  If RobZ was town, wouldn't at least 1 of the 3 Mafia's be trying to get in on this early?  I suppose this puts suspicion on Dsell and I, but it seems like the lobbying should be harder if we had picked town.

This has me thinking RobZ or DSell + (?) Morgrim.  RobZ because there seems to be no interest in voting for him, and DSell for starting the crazy defense of Morgrim and redirecting us to RobZ.

I'm not confident enough (nor do I think it is possible be on Day 1) to go and spearhead a lynch, but I am 100% confident that no lynch is worse.  I'm leaving my vote for now.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 01, 2012, 05:31:40 pm
This has me thinking RobZ or DSell + (?) Morgrim.  RobZ because there seems to be no interest in voting for him, and DSell for starting the crazy defense of Morgrim and redirecting us to RobZ.

Unless you are talking about how I said that Morgrim's behavior in Mafia III is similar to his behavior in Mafia II, I didn't start the "crazy" defense. In fact, I believe it was Robz...*goes to check* yeah it was Robz. I do think it's fair to say that his behavior is very similar to how it was in Mafia II. I don't think this clears him, by any means, but it also doesn't make me particularly suspicious of him.

There is a perfectly good explanation for Morgrim's behavior: He is crazy. Not mafia, not townie, not special role, just crazy.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on June 01, 2012, 05:38:55 pm

There is a perfectly good explanation for Morgrim's behavior: He is crazy. Not mafia, not townie, not special role, just crazy.
Hahaha! Ah, well, :P
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 01, 2012, 05:41:18 pm

Next, Jotheonah:

Ok, I've been looking back at Robz's posts. I am going to agree with a lot of what has been said.

I'll add that twice now (first in his "Stalwarts" section and later in his defense) he's tried to lump me, Galz, Volt, and him together as a core group of Day 1 unlynchables.  I think he's hoping we'll come to his defense, and to somehow tie himself to whatever pro-town sentiment the rest of us has. As "O" has repeatedly pointed out, our status as helpful townies is very much in question given the disastrous outcome of our game. So the "don't lynch these helpful townies" angle rings hollow.  Excluding a large group of people from your suspect pool off the bat for largely irrelevant reasons is anti-Town. With Volt, I await your responses.

"Tried to lump... together as a core group of Day 1 unlynchables" is exactly what I was doing. If one of you were giving me a strong mafia read, I would obviously not do that. But since I don't have particular reasons to suspect you more than others, I would rather keep all of you around. I know how you play, and will be better able to evaluate you next round then I will eHalycon or Eevee or yuma. And that's a good thing for me and for the town. And in fact I MUST "exclude a large group of people from your suspect pool," because there are so many people. Excluding large groups of people on the slimmest of reasons is unfortunately a necessary feature of round 1. I mean, come on, nobody has particularly good reasons for anything round 1. In the other two games, three people--theory, TINAS, and Morgrim--faced round 1 lynch wagons, and none were mafia. Doesn't that tell you something?

This (bolding is mine) makes a certain amount of sense. But we should remember that one key thing the mafia are doing at this stage of the game is making allies among the town, if they're smart. Having even one friend among the town will be life and death for them later on, and the earlier those friendships start the stronger they'll be. Look how Galz played me in MII! (And then turned around and said I was playing him!)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 01, 2012, 05:46:38 pm
Unless you are talking about how I said that Morgrim's behavior in Mafia III is similar to his behavior in Mafia II, I didn't start the "crazy" defense. In fact, I believe it was Robz...*goes to check* yeah it was Robz. I do think it's fair to say that his behavior is very similar to how it was in Mafia II. I don't think this clears him, by any means, but it also doesn't make me particularly suspicious of him.

It is true that you didn't use the exact term "Crazy", but you did start the defense in a much more polite manner. 

Not to unduly bring up the other game, but Morgrim's actions so far aren't seeming too dissimilar from Mafia II in which Morgrim was wrongly mislynched on day 1 because of his...unorthodox posting.


Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 01, 2012, 05:51:31 pm
Captain_Frisk, I guess what I would say is that Morgrim's behavior looks very similar to Mafia II, when he was a townie, so I'm not too worried. Robz' behavior looks very similar to Mafia II, when he was mafia, so I'm much more worried. That alone neither clears Morgrim nor does it completely incriminate Robz, but it is a cause for suspicion.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 01, 2012, 05:52:42 pm
*Cough* Ahem! No hard feelings on that I hope J? ;) Even though I really DO suspect you this game, it's for entirely different reasons.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 01, 2012, 05:55:42 pm
You veterans are really tearing into each other, wow.  :o

@Galzria, why do you suspect J?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 01, 2012, 05:56:20 pm
Hard feelings? Nah. Going to feel very much like being your friend this game? Doesn't look good. (But then, you don't seem that interested, so maybe that's just fine).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 01, 2012, 05:57:51 pm
You veterans are really tearing into each other, wow.  :o

@Galzria, why do you suspect J?

I'm very curious of this too. At this point I think all suspicions need to be spelled out so we can make the best decision in a timely manner.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 01, 2012, 05:59:03 pm
Captain_Frisk, I guess what I would say is that Morgrim's behavior looks very similar to Mafia II, when he was a townie, so I'm not too worried. Robz' behavior looks very similar to Mafia II, when he was mafia, so I'm much more worried. That alone neither clears Morgrim nor does it completely incriminate Robz, but it is a cause for suspicion.

Agreed.  My suspicion of you is purely based on the fact that in any voting, I expect the mafia to try to at least get one of their votes in early (so as to not go for the 5,6,7 hammer powerplay).  Since I know myself to not be Mafia, there is a chance that you are - and if so - anything you do is suspicious (clearing Morgrim, suspecting RobZ). 

That said, I still this ghost town of a thread suspicious that the Mafia is looking for nolynch today.

Note - I am having real life gamers in town this weekend, and will not be posting alot between Noon Saturday and Sunday afternoon (Eastern Time).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 01, 2012, 05:59:17 pm
I will repeat again Dsell (but only this one last time): Having been Robz's teammate in Mafia-II, his actions here read MUCH different. In M-II he made the first real accusation of the game (against Morgrim). He then continued to pound relentlessly, ntpicking over THE MOST minor things. Yes, Volt cast the first vote, but Robz drove the bandwagon, even if he hadn't voted yet.

Could he be Mafia here? Sure. But NOT for the reasons you're making against him.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 01, 2012, 06:01:39 pm
I will be pretty busy and out and about all weekend. I will certainly check in before the deadline and if a suspect has emerged who seems scummy enough to me I will cast whatever vote I can to minimize the chance of us not lynching.

I certainly hope to be on more than that, but just so you know, worst case scenario, plan on me having a voting presence.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 01, 2012, 06:05:41 pm
I have a theory for why there is little posting right now.  At least in my case, it is a little intimidating watching you guys dissect the posts of your former Mafia groups using knowledge from those games.  I'm guessing few of us followed those other games closely so it is difficult to weigh in on whether (for example) Robz is acting like he did in Mafia II.  Or if he isn't, as Galzria now asserts.  That kind of analysis is important, but it can only really be done well by you veterans.  The rest of us pretty much have to watch and hope you don't lead us astray.

I don't think I am dedicated enough to go back and read Mafia I and II indepth, but if you guys post links to specific posts ("look at these similar plays") then I would read those.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 01, 2012, 06:05:47 pm
I will repeat again Dsell (but only this one last time): Having been Robz's teammate in Mafia-II, his actions here read MUCH different. In M-II he made the first real accusation of the game (against Morgrim). He then continued to pound relentlessly, ntpicking over THE MOST minor things. Yes, Volt cast the first vote, but Robz drove the bandwagon, even if he hadn't voted yet.

Could he be Mafia here? Sure. But NOT for the reasons you're making against him.

You do make a good point here. Let me think about it some. There ARE similarities though, in addition to this difference. Another difference is that obviously I have put him on defense here, and he really didn't need to defend himself at all on day 1 in Mafia II. But I'll consider. And re-read. (And be waiting for any other suspicions that people have...now is the time to hear them!)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 01, 2012, 06:10:55 pm
The analysis is pretty useless, actually. Anyone who plays Mafia one way every time and Town another way every time is a terrible mafia player, and we can't deduce all too much from looking at Robz past roleclaims


>MFW I did identical things as townie.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 01, 2012, 06:14:56 pm
I have a theory for why there is little posting right now.  At least in my case, it is a little intimidating watching you guys dissect the posts of your former Mafia groups using knowledge from those games.  I'm guessing few of us followed those other games closely so it is difficult to weigh in on whether (for example) Robz is acting like he did in Mafia II.  Or if he isn't, as Galzria now asserts.  That kind of analysis is important, but it can only really be done well by you veterans.  The rest of us pretty much have to watch and hope you don't lead us astray.

I don't think I am dedicated enough to go back and read Mafia I and II indepth, but if you guys post links to specific posts ("look at these similar plays") then I would read those.

I agree, and the truth is, there's just as much to be gained from how people argue their points HERE, even if they USE information from other games. I don't *at all* expect people to go back and read those games. If I make an assertion about how a player acted, I fully expect that some people will believe me just because, some people will not let it alter their opinions, and some people will agree/disagree based on what they read/saw. I'm fine with that. Every new voice added, regardless of any knowledge of past behavior, is relevant and welcome. So please don't feel intimidated by references to past games. If you feel like reading up on them, great. And if not, that's great too.

For my part, I will use anything I can to determine my suspects. That's just the way I am. I expect each player to use what they feel comfortable with, and won't hold anything against someone for choosing not to use information that wasn't 100% contained within this game. I WILL hold something against someone for ignoring information contained within this game though. Fair warning.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 01, 2012, 06:30:05 pm
I have a theory for why there is little posting right now.  At least in my case, it is a little intimidating watching you guys dissect the posts of your former Mafia groups using knowledge from those games.  I'm guessing few of us followed those other games closely so it is difficult to weigh in on whether (for example) Robz is acting like he did in Mafia II.  Or if he isn't, as Galzria now asserts.  That kind of analysis is important, but it can only really be done well by you veterans.  The rest of us pretty much have to watch and hope you don't lead us astray.

I don't think I am dedicated enough to go back and read Mafia I and II indepth, but if you guys post links to specific posts ("look at these similar plays") then I would read those.

I agree with Galzria's statement above: it's fair game, so use it or don't, it's up to you. The truth is, my argument against Robz is not merely that he is playing the same way as in the last game (or different from Mafia I for that matter). I noticed that pretty quickly, though, which is why I tried to get more information out of him in the first place. That information, though, is what made me more suspicious and is what led to my vote.

I have outlined some of my issues with his actions in this game though already in #341, #373, and #396, as well as...a lot of my posts since page 13 in some way or other.

O, it's fine if you don't want to accept that analysis. I agree that it's silly to play the same way every time. But I'm not sure that looking for similarities is as futile as you're suggesting. Who are you suspicious of?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 01, 2012, 06:40:48 pm
Who are you suspicious of?

Morgrim, obviously. [/troll]

I was suspicious of Robz but am no longer suspicious of him anymore than other players. I can't really name anyone in particular who stands out, actually. I'm not quite sure what eHalycon's reason for voting for me is, but its probably just that I annoy them. Not really an indicator of Mafia or Town tho.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 01, 2012, 06:48:17 pm
Who are you suspicious of?

Morgrim, obviously. [/troll]

I was suspicious of Robz but am no longer suspicious of him anymore than other players. I can't really name anyone in particular who stands out, actually. I'm not quite sure what eHalycon's reason for voting for me is, but its probably just that I annoy them. Not really an indicator of Mafia or Town tho.

I voted for you because of your self-lynch comment.  I just can't see it being a good townie play at all (doing it, or just threatening it).  I actually think you're pretty entertaining in this game so far!  I think someone in this game commented earlier that you were similarly erratic early in Mafia I.  Is that true?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 01, 2012, 06:53:53 pm
Who are you suspicious of?

Morgrim, obviously. [/troll]

I was suspicious of Robz but am no longer suspicious of him anymore than other players. I can't really name anyone in particular who stands out, actually. I'm not quite sure what eHalycon's reason for voting for me is, but its probably just that I annoy them. Not really an indicator of Mafia or Town tho.

I voted for you because of your self-lynch comment.  I just can't see it being a good townie play at all (doing it, or just threatening it).  I actually think you're pretty entertaining in this game so far!  I think someone in this game commented earlier that you were similarly erratic early in Mafia I.  Is that true?

I did the same random-vote thing. I also campaigned HARD for lynching Theory (a vanilla townie) over TINAS (the town cop), and then Ozle (the Mafia Rolecop) over TINAS (still the town cop, unsurprisingly), and on the third day voted for the second mafia.

If you read the mafia I quicktopic it's rather hilarious; everyone assumed me and TINAS were a mafia pair because I defended him so much, when we were Vanilla Townie/Town Cop
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 01, 2012, 07:07:50 pm
I did the same random-vote thing. I also campaigned HARD for lynching Theory (a vanilla townie) over TINAS (the town cop), and then Ozle (the Mafia Rolecop) over TINAS (still the town cop, unsurprisingly), and on the third day voted for the second mafia.

If you read the mafia I quicktopic it's rather hilarious; everyone assumed me and TINAS were a mafia pair because I defended him so much, when we were Vanilla Townie/Town Cop

Stop me if this is inappropriate discussion here, but what tipped you off on TINAS in Mafia I?  Just a hunch?

In this game, I just don't see why you would threaten self-lynch as a Townie.  It is not intuitive at all.  Other than that, your magic sleuthing ability would be a wonderful asset to the town, if you are on the town's side.  Can you explain why you threatened to self-lynch?  The "teach a lesson" explanation you gave earlier makes no sense to me, but I'd like a reason to unvote (not that it looks like anyone else suspects you right now).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: yuma on June 01, 2012, 07:11:07 pm
I agree, and the truth is, there's just as much to be gained from how people argue their points HERE, even if they USE information from other games. I don't *at all* expect people to go back and read those games. If I make an assertion about how a player acted, I fully expect that some people will believe me just because, some people will not let it alter their opinions, and some people will agree/disagree based on what they read/saw. I'm fine with that. Every new voice added, regardless of any knowledge of past behavior, is relevant and welcome. So please don't feel intimidated by references to past games. If you feel like reading up on them, great. And if not, that's great too.

For my part, I will use anything I can to determine my suspects. That's just the way I am. I expect each player to use what they feel comfortable with, and won't hold anything against someone for choosing not to use information that wasn't 100% contained within this game. I WILL hold something against someone for ignoring information contained within this game though. Fair warning.

As the one who asked for no Mafia II references I admit that I am seeing that the analyse has usefulness to others, so I retract my request--not that any one was following it and I do appreciate the apologies, but I guess they aren't necessary either. But man! It is hard to follow and get useful information out of.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 01, 2012, 07:46:21 pm
I did the same random-vote thing. I also campaigned HARD for lynching Theory (a vanilla townie) over TINAS (the town cop), and then Ozle (the Mafia Rolecop) over TINAS (still the town cop, unsurprisingly), and on the third day voted for the second mafia.

If you read the mafia I quicktopic it's rather hilarious; everyone assumed me and TINAS were a mafia pair because I defended him so much, when we were Vanilla Townie/Town Cop

Stop me if this is inappropriate discussion here, but what tipped you off on TINAS in Mafia I?  Just a hunch?

In this game, I just don't see why you would threaten self-lynch as a Townie.  It is not intuitive at all.  Other than that, your magic sleuthing ability would be a wonderful asset to the town, if you are on the town's side.  Can you explain why you threatened to self-lynch?  The "teach a lesson" explanation you gave earlier makes no sense to me, but I'd like a reason to unvote (not that it looks like anyone else suspects you right now).

If I get 6 votes, the odds are pretty damn good that I'm going to be lynched. Self-lynching
1) Prevents poor kill-the-last-voter-play
2) Does to an extent teach a lesson
3) Prevents mafia from hedging their positions
4) Does not really reduce the amount of information given except by a tiny amount, given our group size

I suspected TINAS was innocent because
1) He had a massive bandwagon going on him
2) His play was too erratic to be scum.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 01, 2012, 07:53:42 pm
2) His play was too erratic to be scum.

And if you don't mind me extending that to my own point earlier: Mafia won't play like Scum, especially the first day, and they will generally go out of their way to draw attention to themselves. I don't mean that they won't post, I mean that they will try to be quite involved, but lead (either directly or indirectly) discussion as to make them seem safe - ie. They will read very pro-town. It doesn't take much early on for one person to do something that MIGHT be construed as Mafia'ish, and then for people to pile on. When it sprinkles, it pours. That's all the Mafia need to take a day 2 advantage (They already have a day 1 advantage just by the nature of the game).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 01, 2012, 07:54:39 pm
And if you don't mind me extending that to my own point earlier: Mafia won't play like Scum, especially the first day, and they will generally go out of their way to draw attention to themselves.

NOT* to draw attention to themselves.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 01, 2012, 08:27:21 pm
Captain_Frisk, I guess what I would say is that Morgrim's behavior looks very similar to Mafia II, when he was a townie, so I'm not too worried. Robz' behavior looks very similar to Mafia II, when he was mafia, so I'm much more worried. That alone neither clears Morgrim nor does it completely incriminate Robz, but it is a cause for suspicion.

I feel like no matter what I say, you would say "See! He is mafia," which must be how Morgrim felt in Mafia II. Because literally, every time he said something, I would say, "See! He is mafia." I don't know how similarly or differently I am supposed to play from game to game, whether I am mafia or not, to be un-suspicious. Really, the factors that determine the tone/substance/frequency of posting have just as much to do with exogenous factors as they do with my role. For instance, how urgently the other games need attention, what time it is, who else is playing, etc. Look, you've all had 2 full games to get to know me and how I play, which is twice as much as anybody else. It just didn't seem urgent for me to chime it immediately and all the time here, or to offer strongly worded accusations, or to start any bandwagons. I have no firm suspicions to go off of, so that wouldn't help the town, and I preferred not to drown out people like Frisk and Eevee and you and eHalycon etc. etc., so we learn more about them. I guess that was naive of me to try and get away with a "bye" this round... but I saw it as the best thing for the town.

And now I feel like I have let the town down, because everyone thinks I am "unhelpful." What is helpful to the town, right now? You want me to whip you all up into righteous fury against someone? How should I choose that someone? Really, I was just going to sit back a little at first. Not out of laziness, or spite, or mafia-play, but because I thought the town might benefit from that approach.

Now, really, I have to admit that there was probably an error in my thinking--the voting deadline is MUCH SOONER THAN I REALIZED. So I would have been more active the last few days having known that.

I realize the onus is on me to prove my worth (and my town status, which I'm not sure I can do any better than I already have, so, yuck), so I will go back through the thread and then post in a few hours about where my suspicions lie. I hope to be able to give a voting recommendation at that point. If at that point you don't think it's "helpful," or still think I'm mafia, go ahead and pile on me, I guess.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 01, 2012, 08:35:21 pm

If I get 6 votes, the odds are pretty damn good that I'm going to be lynched. Self-lynching
1) Prevents poor kill-the-last-voter-play
2) Does to an extent teach a lesson
3) Prevents mafia from hedging their positions
4) Does not really reduce the amount of information given except by a tiny amount, given our group size

I suspected TINAS was innocent because
1) He had a massive bandwagon going on him
2) His play was too erratic to be scum.

I suppose that is fair.  But that last point is supposed to cover you in this game, right?  :P  Fine.  UNVOTE.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 01, 2012, 09:00:29 pm
Alright, I've reviewed everything up to this point (Wow, more than 400 posts already!?! Seriously? 13 people are hard to keep track of! I can't believe we've had so much (even if the first ~100 were pre-game) already!)

I know def has said that he won't be as active, and that's generally fine, but I'm not sure who he's really helping in a game that (with shorter deadlines) is going to move so fast.

Still, I'm not going to get on him this round.

With the deadline fast approaching however (A day and a half away people), I am going to cast my vote now. I've been talking about my suspicions for awhile, and while O raised my hackles early on, I think he did so TOO much to be Mafia. At least for now (If I'm wrong, well played day 1 O). There's also been a lot of talk about Robz, and while I think that the people making their points about him certainly have something to go on, I also believe that those arguments are false. They're traps that have been fallen into both in M-I (Theory), and M-II (Morgrim). It's way to easy to start needling away at somebody, see them get a little defensive, and drive home the bandwagon. Especially in the first round. I don't believe the people going AFTER Robz are Mafia either, just inexperienced. Maybe that'll be the death of me. Who knows.

No, I'm going to stick to my guns here, and VOTE: JOTHEONAH. I'm going to do so for three reasons:

1) As I voiced earlier, I think he is driving conversation too much. His "Who would you vote for if the deadline were tomorrow" exercise, while I thought was good for getting people to think, it was also good for getting people to NOT think about him. He's been way to Pro-Town. Yes, that's counter-intuitive, but if my suspicions are correct, a good place for Mafia to be day 1.

2) His "on and off" vote of O. He got on O's case because it was easy to do, but he didn't get on for a good reason. "Being annoying" didn't add anything real to the discussion, and the other reasons listed was all just parroting of things I had already said. If that bandwagon goes anywhere and O gets lynched, it's easier to blame the originator (me) than the guy who liked his argument and actually voted first (Jotheonah). The weakness of his argument was actually pointed out to him, and he unvoted before going to bed. A very nice thing for him to do, yes? Except with so many people (as has been pointed out) there really wasn't any risk of a hammer vote. Someone pointed out how terrible the Mafia play would have to be to quick-hammer votes #5, #6, and #7 round 1. And O was only at 3. The fact is, town isn't GOING to quick hammer. They are going to take their time and slowly build up a case, because they want to feel sure. So the ONLY thing his unvote did was make him look nice.

3) Since I've pointed out why I think he's Mafia hiding as town, he's stopped responding. I fully expect this to change with my vote and reasons listed above. So J, I look forward to your rebuttal. His point that my whole argument for him being Mafia is that he appears so pro-town doesn't get him anywhere. Yes J, that is EXACTLY my point.

So, there you have it. Mafia get by round 1 because it's easy to hide as town, and easy for town to lead themselves to their own doom. Too many people, too many suspicions, too many straw-man cases. All they have to do is appear helpful and friendly. Active and important. Town will lynch themselves going after their own shadows. I propose a different tactic. Stop chasing our own shadows and actually look amongst ourselves.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on June 01, 2012, 09:19:46 pm

If I get 6 votes, the odds are pretty damn good that I'm going to be lynched. Self-lynching
1) Prevents poor kill-the-last-voter-play
2) Does to an extent teach a lesson
3) Prevents mafia from hedging their positions
4) Does not really reduce the amount of information given except by a tiny amount, given our group size

I suspected TINAS was innocent because
1) He had a massive bandwagon going on him
2) His play was too erratic to be scum.

I suppose that is fair.  But that last point is supposed to cover you in this game, right?  :P  Fine.  UNVOTE.

1) Dont see how the last voter is any less likely to be scum than anyone else (probably the other way around)
2) The biggest lesson for me is "O is a terrible player"
3) I've been wondering what this word means for a while now. What is hedging?
4) All the info we can get is important to us, even if it's "just a tiny bit more". Please dont deprive us of it for no gain whatsoever.


Bottom line, pretty damn good is <100% unless you somehow know who would be lynched instead of you and somehow know that someone has a power (town) role. Self-lynching is not going to make a difference often, but it's clearly a bad decision. Iirrational behaviour is irritating even if it usually has very little impact or no impact at all (on anything).

Captain_Frisk, I guess what I would say is that Morgrim's behavior looks very similar to Mafia II, when he was a townie, so I'm not too worried. Robz' behavior looks very similar to Mafia II, when he was mafia, so I'm much more worried. That alone neither clears Morgrim nor does it completely incriminate Robz, but it is a cause for suspicion.

It's really hard to follow these walls of text without having read Mafia, II but this I feel I understand and agree on. Robz's longwinded explanations havent really convinced me yet, so I'm going to VOTE:ROBZ, probably wouldnt if the deadline wasnt so damn close. Robz convincing me to unvote (and probably going for O then) can definitely happen, but I'm afraid I wont find anyone who feels scummier (is that the right word?) before the deadline so casting my vote already.

I know I haven't been on much (vegas baby, been even questioning my decision to join this game given how little spare time / energy I've had. If someone feels I'm not participating enough, speak up and I'll try to make more time for posting).  I'm checking in every night before going to sleep at minimum so at least I (hopefully) wont miss any voting deadlines.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 01, 2012, 09:28:30 pm

2) The biggest lesson for me is "O is a terrible player"


I'll just repeat my Mafia I voting record:

Townie over Town Cop
Mafia Rolecop over Town Cop
Mafia (universal tho)

I also sparked tons of contributions to this thread, whereas you've been nearly entirely silent.

Have you even played much mafia before? It'd be funny if you made such a claim while being relatively inexperienced.

Plus you vote for robz without a real reason to.


Unvote
Vote:Eevee
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 01, 2012, 09:32:16 pm
It's really hard to follow these walls of text without having read Mafia, II

I'm sorry about these walls of text. I really am. I think for now (at least until I see anything else really suspicious) I've made my case so while I'm gonna keep up with the thread and keep posting I'm gonna do my best to keep it shorter. My posts might get long again when the deadline gets even closer!

Eevee I think you've been doing ok about posting as long as you can basically keep up with things...if you are able, this weekend is going to be very important since the deadline for day 1 is Sunday at midnight. So I expect a lot of activity tomorrow and Sunday if we haven't decided yet.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 01, 2012, 09:32:38 pm

2) The biggest lesson for me is "O is a terrible player"


I'll just repeat my Mafia I voting record:

Townie over Town Cop
Mafia Rolecop over Town Cop
Mafia (universal tho)

I also sparked tons of contributions to this thread, whereas you've been nearly entirely silent.

Have you even played much mafia before? It'd be funny if you made such a claim while being relatively inexperienced.

Plus you vote for robz without a real reason to.


Unvote
Vote:Eevee

No problems with most of this (as it's all your opinion, how could I?), but no personal attacks please (although maybe I'm just reading more into that than was meant). I like and appreciate all of our players, for all of their contributions, and I haven't found Eevee to be any less present than many others.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 01, 2012, 09:34:10 pm
"O is a terrible player" is more of a personal attack than anything I said, Galz  ;)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 01, 2012, 09:39:32 pm
"O is a terrible player" is more of a personal attack than anything I said, Galz  ;)

Maybe it was just a misread in tone on my part. I just want to make sure that right or wrong, everybody here is having fun.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on June 01, 2012, 09:40:28 pm
With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Morgrim7 (1) - yuma
Robz888 (3) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee
jotheonah (1) - Galzria
Eevee (1) - O

Not Voting (7) - Robz, def, michaeljb, Voltgloss, jotheonah, Morgrim7, eHalcyon

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 01, 2012, 09:43:44 pm
Deadline: 1 Week So June 3[/color]
Deadline: July 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT[/color][/b]

Uhhh is it June 3 or July 3? This is really important.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 01, 2012, 09:44:53 pm
Deadline: 1 Week So June 3[/color]
Deadline: July 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT[/color][/b]

Uhhh is it June 3 or July 3? This is really important.

I'll let Insomniac clarify, but I have a hard time believing we have more than 4 weeks still... that would draw it out WAY to long. ;D
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on June 01, 2012, 09:56:55 pm
Deadline: 1 Week So June 3[/color]
Deadline: July 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT[/color][/b]

Uhhh is it June 3 or July 3? This is really important.

I'll let Insomniac clarify, but I have a hard time believing we have more than 4 weeks still... that would draw it out WAY to long. ;D

My bad I spaced, totally meant JUNE 3, lol July 3 would be really bad.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 01, 2012, 11:00:24 pm
Deadline: 1 Week So June 3[/color]
Deadline: July 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT[/color][/b]

Uhhh is it June 3 or July 3? This is really important.

I'll let Insomniac clarify, but I have a hard time believing we have more than 4 weeks still... that would draw it out WAY to long. ;D

My bad I spaced, totally meant JUNE 3, lol July 3 would be really bad.

If we are to lynch all liars - is there any way for me to vote for Insomniac?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 01, 2012, 11:02:02 pm
Didn't Insomniac die with a stick in the back? Hmm, C.F. misleads us. /lynch
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: yuma on June 01, 2012, 11:25:44 pm
Hey guys, I just wanted to let you know that I will be gone all of Sunday through the deadline. I am visiting my in-laws and probably (~95%) won't be getting on the computer that day. As a result I won't be able to participate in any last minute voting before the deadline.

It appears I am the lone vote left for Morgrim7. I don't think my belief toward him has changed and haven't been convinced to vote for anyone else. For now I'll keep it the same.

For tonight I am off to bed.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 02, 2012, 01:57:06 am
Hello all. Well, I re-read the first half of this stuff. Man there are a lot of posts, and a lot of silly, useless posts. Moving on, here is everyone ranked from non-suspicon to suspicion:

Morgrim: He says crazy things, but he isn't behaving much differently from MII. To the extent he IS behaving differently, I think he is legitimately trying not to get lynched first round again. He's really bad at that... but he's not the mafia (maybe).
Yuma: I think the mafia would not leave that lonely little vote on Morgrim, knowing it's unlikely to be joined by any other votes. He doesn't seem to be paying the kind of attention to the game that I would expect from a mafia. He also has a blessed dearth of silly posts.
Def: To be fair, Def and Yuma have said so little that it's a bit unfair to largely acquit them. But my sense is the mafia would have chimed in more. If this turns out to be untrue, and they are mafia, we will have to make a concerted effort to start really piling on the less prolific talkers in early rounds. But for now, I find them both unsuspicious.
Galzria: He makes it very hard to have an opinion of him because he-just-posts-so-much. So much info, and so much silliness. And emoticons! I hate when they are not used sparingly. Oh well. Since he and I were both mafia in MII, I am having a hard time evaluating him in this new context, but he seems harmless--and also helpful--so far.
O: The biggest change for me when I went back over the thread is that now I see O as mostly innocent. I don't agree with everything he did, but his short, snarky responses don't read like mafia to me. The Jester thing was clearly a joke. The random generator was needling. The only troubling thing was his comment about the self-lynch, but we might have all been reading too much into that. He might just be the town bad boy.
Voltgloss: He essentially sounds identical to Mafia II, where he was not mafia. He has a highly analytical, sophisticated, reluctantly accusatory but accusatory nonetheless style, and he really hasn't deviated from it at all this game. I have no specific suspicion of him, though I am wary of being fooled by it (since it would be easy for him to act the exact same way and expect my faith in him).
eHalycon: He is playing a wise first round. Somewhat guarded, but doesn't avoid the subjects. I'm not alarmed by him right now but he is probably someone who could rapidly move up my suspicions depending on how he behaves henceforth. I could see the mafia doing what he's been doing--really sort of lurking but saying short concrete things now and then. But that's just a feeling.
Jotheonah: Well, he's been very purposeful this first round. I like that, but it sort of sticks out at the moment, actually. Not a lot, but Galzria seems pretty suspicious of him.
Captain Frisk: He said something way early about doing research on whether the town was likely to lynch successfully on day 1. That's nice, but you know that's kind of a good thing for the mafia to say to start building good faith. He's also made sure to get a vote out there, on me.
Michaeljb: Well, he had a LOT of silly posts early on. Silly posts make me suspicious when they come from new players, because I am thinking that a new mafia would want to be involved in the conversation a reasonable amount, but would be afraid of saying anything. So he would see a lot of silly posts mix with more substance. Michaeljb, and the top 2 people, have been repeat offenders on this. Michaeljb had some defensive moments mid-late through the day, also.
Dsell and Eevee: Really, these are the two people who stick out to me as mafia. Dsell has been waging a pretty relentless crusade against me. I won't go so far as to say it's baseless, but it's weird. I think it's weird, at least. I try to take a slightly less active role on Day 1 and I find myself being totally attacked by this guy. And of course the biggest thing with him is pre-emptively defending himself in case of a mislynch. Everybody remember that? Also, he was already worried about me doing a false roleclaim. Really, he has a Robz888 focus and as Robz888 I don't get it. He's very misguided or he's mafia.

Eevee hopped right on that bandwagon, and he did so after I had said that I would be posting a big accusations post (where I also asked to hold off on voting for me until after I'd made it), and then he voted for me, before I get the post up. I thought he might have suspected I was going to put him at the top here and wanted to get his vote out of the way before he did. Remember also that I suspect the mafia might want to vote earlier, rather than later. If you vote early, you CAN switch if you need to, but otherwise you are in good shape not to look bandwagon-y or hammering or whatnot. So it wouldn't surprise me to see some of the early voters as mafia. (Really, though, it wouldn't surprise me to see anybody as mafia, not even Morgrim.) Also, Eevee really hit the sweet spot with some silly posts, some golly-gee I'm new to this gosh stuff, and some substance. And man, right onto the Robz bandwagon!

So, I would vote for Dsell or Eevee. Really, I suspect them about the same. Since there is already a vote for Eevee, I shall vote for him. If other players have strong opinions why Dsell is suspicious but Eevee is not, I am open to re-considering. Really, I'm open to re-considering on anyone (even Morgrim, though probably not). But that deadline really is looming more than I expected, so here's this for now:

VOTE: EEVEE
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 02:02:45 am
To be fair, the usage of emoticons has been fairly conscience, but only because you mentioned them annoying you earlier in the thread. While I DO use them, it's not nearly so much, usually, as I have been recently.

...

;D

...

Ok, I'll go back to normal now. (Man, I wanna put a wink face in here).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on June 02, 2012, 02:04:51 am
With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Morgrim7 (1) - yuma
Robz888 (3) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee
jotheonah (1) - Galzria
Eevee (2) - O, Robz

Not Voting (6) - def, michaeljb, Voltgloss, jotheonah, Morgrim7, eHalcyon

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 02, 2012, 02:36:09 am
Ok, about 48 hours to go.

I'm completely unsurprised to see Robz begin to make his case against me.

Here's where I'm at. I'm trying not to have Robz888 tunnel vision. There ARE three mafia out there, whether Robz is one or not. I'm not opposed to lynching someone else if a) I see something really suspicious or b) someone else makes a strong case against another player and others show interest in lynching this person (which I think is more likely). This is not hopping on a bandwagon; this is simply due to the fact that we are going to have to get a majority of votes on someone, and very soon. Unfortunately, we simply don't have time to do tons and tons more analysis. If no other strong suspicions are raised, it does look quite likely that someone that has already received votes is going to be the lynchee.

The problem with this is that I really don't get a mafia read from anyone here except Robz. Unless it is the much-less-active posters, at least 2 people are fooling me. I could see some reasons for suspicion on some others, such as jotheonah and eevee, but...I'm just not really seeing it. I could be wrong, and I can be persuaded because like I've said, we CAN'T not lynch.

So for now at least, my vote is going to stay the same. I just don't see any good reason to vote for someone who reads town to me over someone who I get a serious mafia vibe from.

Later (maybe tomorrow) I will post an analysis of people's actions assuming that each is mafia, which can hopefully help me sort out thoughts past Robz tunnel vision. In the mean time, this is crunch time for airing suspicions! We really need to start getting our act together tomorrow to settle on a single person to lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on June 02, 2012, 02:50:25 am

2) The biggest lesson for me is "O is a terrible player"


I'll just repeat my Mafia I voting record:

Townie over Town Cop
Mafia Rolecop over Town Cop
Mafia (universal tho)

I also sparked tons of contributions to this thread, whereas you've been nearly entirely silent.

Have you even played much mafia before? It'd be funny if you made such a claim while being relatively inexperienced.

Plus you vote for robz without a real reason to.


Unvote
Vote:Eevee

First of all: no offense taken / didn't mean my post as a personal attack either. It's just a game, I hope I didnt ruin our isodom bronze match.  :D Secondly, saying you are a terrible player altogether was stupid of me, I apologize. What I meant to say is "that part of your game is terrible and cannot be justified". Marin isnt a terrible dominion player even if he sometimes doesnt end the game with a win but rather drags it along for two extra turns having fun with his engine. Not ending the game with a win when you have the chance is always a terrible dominion move.

Your vote to me seems like it was casted just because I made was offensive towards you (and again: it was very out of line of me to phrase it the way I did) and you got angry. Not drawing any conclusions of that though, it's an understandable reaction. I do not think it's a particularly valid reason to vote for someone (unless you really think I'm mafia), but it is what it is. I tried to state my reason for a) voting this early and b) choosing Robz. Basicly, we are so close to our deadline we need to start making decisions, I wouldnt have voted yet if that wasnt the case. I do not think Robz is a bulletproof mafia and quite frankly would hope we had more time but we dont, we have two days or something so I thought the thing to do was to start casting votes to people you suspect the most - even if you aren't sure. I do want to contribute, I know I'm clean so at least I have more of a chance (and incentive) to hit mafia than the rest of you on average.

@Robz
Admittedly I havent played much, but saying "posting a medium amount, some of it jokingly but most of it seriously and somewhat analytically" is mafia behaviour and "posting the bare minimum" is town behaviour seems hugely surprising (I want to say "inaccurate" but I dont really know, what do others think about this?). I dont really get what in particular has made me a suspect, we basicly have 3 groups of players: "leaders" like you and Galzria who are really active and keep the discussion going, sort of guiding it (these are the most experienced players). "Participants" like me, who post whenever they are asked a question or otherwise adressed or whenever they get an idea (or think of a joke) they want to share with others and "lurkers" who decide to do most of their talking by their votes and post very little. Seems like you want to peg the 2nd group as mafia, I think in reality we are mostly people who havent played enough to lead the discussion but try our best to contribute still (and improve all the time, I hope I'll be able to take a bigger role in the future, at least when playing with people less experienced than i am).

I dont think people really change their "group" regarding their role either, imo lurkers are just quieter people, people who like to observe. Participants a) dont have enough time to be real leaders or b) dont yet know how to do it. Leaders know everyone thinks of them as these analytical and awesome posters and know they have to do the same when mafia to not be completely obvious (apparently Galzria did a pretty good job with this in some other game).

Dont really know how else to defend myself - this is me trying to help town to best of my abilities, not me trying to be in the middle ground as a mafia member (apparently middle ground is where best of my ablities carry me). Tbh I dont think I'd have the courage to post even this much or this long if I was mafia, at least IRL my heart is racing pretty much a 100% when I have to lie all the time (which is odd, bluffing in poker is so much easier for some reason).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 03:11:56 am
Don't worry Eevee, I personally have not found your contributions scummy. I probably couldn't be convinced to vote for you day 1, in the same way that I probably couldn't be convinced to vote for Robz.

Now, I know that a bad lynch IS better than a no lynch because, well, the only person I KNOW is town is myself. So even if I don't believe someone is Mafia, they will still have a higher chance to be than I do.

So I will not rule out switching my vote at the deadline if I can't convince people to think backwards. I want to make sure we lynch SOMEBODY, but I would prefer it to be the person that I suspect. Alas, the troubles of being a team when you don't know who your teammates are!

That said, I would ask everybody to step back for just a moment and think: "If I were Mafia, how would I act, and how would I want the town to see me?" You'll start to understand why I find such strong pro-town play day 1 so much more suspicious than someone who appears (with 13 people playing) to give off slight Mafia "tells".

Most of you have admired that your feelings aren't strong, but that you just don't feel more comfortable with reads on anyone else. I understand that. I do. But put yourself in the Mafia's shoes (I've been there, remember) and you'll see why your angle of approach is wrong.

((I only refer to day 1, btw. After, everything goes out the window).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 03:13:24 am
Most of you have admitted*
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 03:20:43 am
Also, to be clear J, I'm not on a witch hunt for you. You're a really great guy. I'm just calling things as I read them. It's... Different, being on the other side of the fence, but I'm sure I can use what I learned AS Mafia to find them in this game.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 02, 2012, 03:36:58 am
Galzria, if I go by your strategem of suspecting people who appear least suspicious, then my current top picks are actually Captain_Frisk and you yourself, followed by jotheonah.  You read extremely Town to me... maybe in the same way that nobody suspected you in Mafia II.

Aside: I'm going to be out for most of today (Saturday).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 03:54:37 am
Galzria, if I go by your strategem of suspecting people who appear least suspicious, then my current top picks are actually Captain_Frisk and you yourself, followed by jotheonah.  You read extremely Town to me... maybe in the same way that nobody suspected you in Mafia II.

Aside: I'm going to be out for most of today (Saturday).

That's completely fair, and I've been waiting for SOMEONE to point that out (if only because I've been listed low by a few people). I am town, but if you don't suspect me, I think something is wrong.

A) I read strong town in M-II, and was Mafia.
B) I went after people I could make cases for being Mafia.
C) It worked handsomely.

Mafia like to be people who read town, and drive the wagon to find people who read Mafia.

You SHOULD suspect me if I read absolutely pro-town. But my defense is that I, at least, am trying my best to teach my fellow townies to read Mafia. J has been trying to get people to find Mafia-like behavior. He also tried to turn people on each other with his "exercise", so you would do the Mafia's job for them.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 02, 2012, 03:57:03 am
*goes and reads all of jotheonah's posts*

Galzria, you are accusing him of being too pro-town to be sincere. Would you mind quoting some posts that have struck you as "too pro-town" and why? I saw like, one post that was really uber pro-town. And I have to echo eHalcyon, if I am going by who appears least suspicious, you are hardly MORE suspicious to me than jotheonah, which by your reasoning would suggest that you are JUST as likely to be mafia...it's possible I'm missing things. I guess I actually have run the scenario of you being mafia through my head some but I just don't even want to try and process that right now, much less put you on the chopping block within the next 48 hours. And a lot of what you've said DOES make sense. But on the other hand they could make sense for you to say as mafia.

Anyway my head is spinning a tad and it's getting late, so I think I'm going to give things fresh eyes tomorrow. But I am interested in hearing your suspicions of jotheonah spelled out a little more. We still have a little time.

For the record, I am still most suspicious of Robz.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 04:10:49 am
*goes and reads all of jotheonah's posts*

Galzria, you are accusing him of being too pro-town to be sincere. Would you mind quoting some posts that have struck you as "too pro-town" and why? I saw like, one post that was really uber pro-town. And I have to echo eHalcyon, if I am going by who appears least suspicious, you are hardly MORE suspicious to me than jotheonah, which by your reasoning would suggest that you are JUST as likely to be mafia...it's possible I'm missing things. I guess I actually have run the scenario of you being mafia through my head some but I just don't even want to try and process that right now, much less put you on the chopping block within the next 48 hours. And a lot of what you've said DOES make sense. But on the other hand they could make sense for you to say as mafia.

Anyway my head is spinning a tad and it's getting late, so I think I'm going to give things fresh eyes tomorrow. But I am interested in hearing your suspicions of jotheonah spelled out a little more. We still have a little time.

For the record, I am still most suspicious of Robz.

Absolutely, give me a few.

Before I put it up though, I want to make this point NOW, before it looks like I'm being forced to defend it later: I don't want to be accused of leading the blind. It would be very easy for J to turn around and say "Well look at how he strung all us along in M-II, and now he's just doing the same thing with you!". This (I hope) is NOT the case. I don't want you to follow my vote of J because I say so, or I make a good case. I want everybody to open their eyes to the fact that (especially in forum Mafia), the Mafia just AREN'T going to come out being suspicious. They have all the time they want/need to formulate their posts. So if you are looking for Mafia by looking for people who are ACTING like Mafia or suspicious, you're PROBABLY looking in the wrong place.

Could the Mafia be double-bluffing by acting MORE suspicious to make you think "Well, there's no WAY they could be that obvious" (Think O here people)? Sure. But that's a move to make with a veteran crowd who know not to jump on the people who appear scummy early. With this many inexperience people, their best bet is to HIDE by appearing to be one of the town.

Anyway, on to putting together my post RE: J.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 02, 2012, 04:26:21 am
Mafia double-bluffs are certainly possible, but take the pretty massive risk that they just don't get single-bluffed at all. I mean, TINAS was pretty damn near lynched in Mafia I due to his erratic play, and Morgrim WAS lynched due to it.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 02, 2012, 04:41:29 am
I want everybody to open their eyes to the fact that (especially in forum Mafia), the Mafia just AREN'T going to come out being suspicious. They have all the time they want/need to formulate their posts. So if you are looking for Mafia by looking for people who are ACTING like Mafia or suspicious, you're PROBABLY looking in the wrong place.

I think you are mostly talking about my suspicion of Robz here? But I think perhaps you are/were missing the original idea of it...he was taking a much more "no-risk, appear townie" approach which just seemed really uncharacteristic of when he was the town. Like you are advocating searching for in a mafioso, he looked too pro-town (and by this I mean boring, in-the-background town) for him. Then after prodding him a bit some of his other responses (in addition to his defense, which is expected) appeared at best, unhelpful, and at worst, a bit scummy.

But it really didn't start from a "mafia tell," it was just me thinking, "where is larger-than-life Robz, champion of the town, whose accusations and defenses are airtight and filled with awesomeness? And who is this boring, vanilla player who has taken his place?" So I sorta called him out on it, which got the ball rolling even more and made me more suspicious.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 05:40:58 am
Alright, at the request of Dsell (although I would like to keep this short(er). No books this game!):

I started to type this out, explaining step by step how I came to my conclusions, and realized that it was going to become WAY to long for me to start setting a standard now. So instead I'm going to bullet point with commentary.



I would feel like kind of a jerk letting Morgrim be the Day 1 lynch ... AGAIN. Poor guy just wants to play some mafia.

On the other hand, two votes in a town this size is not so big a pressure cooker. It takes seven to kill? So 4 votes is the bare minimum for a mafia hammer, and that's assuming fairly stupid mafia play. So everybody calm down a little.

Seems to be pretty good advice. Don't panic over a few votes, because with this many people, a few votes can't hurt. Let's look at how he applied that advice to himself:

Ok, well I'm going to bed so I'm going to Unvote. It's been fun, this sparring with O, but I'm not actually convinced enough that he's mafia to leave that sitting there all night.

eHalycon, you're online and you're not participating in the exercise! what a mafia thing to do.

Taken all by itself, this seemed like a nice thing to do. And in fact, he even had ME thinking that:

Ok, well I'm going to bed so I'm going to Unvote. It's been fun, this sparring with O, but I'm not actually convinced enough that he's mafia to leave that sitting there all night.

eHalycon, you're online and you're not participating in the exercise! what a mafia thing to do.

+1 for doing the right thing. Unless you're Mafia covering your tracks. Hmm, ah, +1 anyway. I'm feeling nice today.

Buuut, not entirely. Those posts are back to back, and I was wary of how pro-town it felt even then. When Jotheonah unvoted, there were only 3 votes on O. One below the 4 that he admits being the "worry" number. And even 4 is only the "worry" number if the Mafia plays EXTREMELY poorly by hammering out the last 3 votes. So outside of "being a nice guy" there wasn't much reason for him to retract his vote except to give off a pro-town vibe. Is that damning all by itself? No, not really. Confusing, certainly. Saying one thing, and doing another for the sole purpose of being nice just didn't sit right with me.


Jotheonah's unvote post was #310. He stated in it that he was going to bed, but "jokingly" accused eHalcyon of not participating in his exercise. His "exercise" was post #291, less than 20 posts earlier:

I hear ya on that one. OK everybody, I am BORED. So I propose a game. Imagine that Insomniac posted that the new deadline was tomorrow and everyone has to vote for someone. Who would you vote for and why? (Note: don't ACTUALLY vote.)

And ... GO!

(I will be immediately suspicious of anyone who chooses not to participate in this exercise)

This was the post that grabbed my attention. I posted in M-II MANY times over that the Mafia would do their best to stir up confusion and suspicion. While I did my best to remain as "town" as I could there, I also did my best to poke and prod as many places as I could. J does a good job once again of phrasing this post to appear pro-town (especially the "don't actually vote" - Do you REALLY think that was necessary?), but stop for a moment and think what this ACTUALLY does.

I can't recall who (I think it was Dsell, though maybe C.F.) said they weren't REALLY suspicious of Robz, but were just taking part in this "exercise", and it was Robz's response that made them start thinking as him as a possible Mafia. There are a lot of people in this game. If accusations start flying around by townies without any real drive behind them, we will end up self-lynching ourselves. So what does he do? He starts this exercise, and then gets outta the way by "going to bed".

This was a great Mafia move in a town this size. His first response to both my above accusations is this:

Quick reply to G before work.

I was bating O. He didn't seem to be taking the game seriously, I thought a few votes on his head would change that. It did. Look how he's been playing lately. As soon as he looked to be in any real danger I unvoted.  Just like my "exercise" post, I'm looking for ways to generate meaningful replies for analysis. I think it's working.

By his own admission earlier, O should not have appeared to be in any "real danger". That unvote served no purpose except to make him look good. He knows that his case for survival in later days is going to be how he composed himself early. It worked for me, why not for him?

His second point is more to the truth of the matter. "I think it's working". Let's look at who had "accused" who in his "exercise":
#315, Voltgloss -> eHalcyon
#312, eHalcyon -> Morgrim/O
#304, Dsell -> def/Robz
#294, Galzria -> O/Volt
And much further down (at Eevee's first chance online), you have post #365 (will quote that a bit below): Eevee - Jotheonah/O

And that's not to mention Yuma or C.F. who had Morgrim voted already.

So his seemingly helpful exercise has caused the town to blow up in suspicions of each other, NONE of which he had a hand in. Why is that important? Two reasons:

1) He can't be tied back to any bad lynch that comes from that
2) He has town jumping on town.

We have SIX people as listed suspects in that list (seven if you include him from Eevee's post). Two of which are still primary suspects in most of your eyes. And NEITHER of those two has J connecting to them.


Suspicious: johtheonah (Something feels very off here. I'll try to think of a way explain this when I have more time, I actually meant to just post a list now but I started writing the neutral column first and had something to say about everyone of those so I feel I've got to do the same here)

That something you can't explain Eevee, is that he is too damn "pro-town". Everything he's done he's done in a "to help the town" manner, but has done anything BUT, or cast him in a better light. And before you could get more time to try and think what it was:

First of all, sorry for being busy and not posting for a while. Just caught up with everything.. oh so much reading. Makes me forget the stuff I had to say four pages back.. should really try to get online every 5 hours or so to not miss out on stuff.

Oh well, I'll chime in with my hunches now:

Suspicious: johtheonah (Something feels very off here. I'll try to think of a way explain this when I have more time, I actually meant to just post a list now but I started writing the neutral column first and had something to say about everyone of those so I feel I've got to do the same here) > O (you've got to know that is bad bad town play.. kind of weird though, dont really think you would go that route if you were mafia either but.. eh, pretty confident that cant be a power townie role at least) > Morgrim (was my #1 suspect until someone posted he was just like this in some other game where he was town. Still not exaclty convinced but certainly helps his case)

Neutral: michaeljb (you post a lot yet I still dont remember any of your opinions. have you actually said much anything?), def (posting so little, hard to say), Galzria (posts a lot, some of it looks mafia-ish, some of it townish. undecided still but inclined to believe you're clean and sincere), Captain_Frisk (I find myself agreeing with a lot of your posts but am still not convinced. somehow it feels like you arent 100% honest / helping town as much as you could if you really wanted to)

I'm-pretty-sure-is-town: Voltgloss, Dsell (good, well-argumented posts that strongly make me feel like I can trust you. Either of these being mafia is a scary thought but I can't really see that being the case, it doesnt seem like either is holding any info back).

???: Robz, half the time you seem like a sure townie, then you go around and say something too stupid for a guy that smart and start looking suspicious again. Your playing style is very good for the game though, so if I was equally suspicious of you and someone else, I'd rather vote for the someone else.

If the lynch was tomorrow morning, I'd pick either O or johtheonah but hopefully we'll get more info before we have to cross that bridge. Everything still looks very puzzling, I find myself hoping I could be "sure" of someone so that I could really start to hammer that person instead of posting these somewhat vague thoughts (sorry guys, I really dont have anything better to offer). Mafia seems to be playing very well which makes me suspect the silent ones and the more experienced ones more (and johtheonah seems to be the only one of my 3 suspects above who fits either of these labels so arghhhh).

BWUH? Man I don't mind being accused here and there, shows the town are on their toes and all that, but I just got cited as #1 suspicious person without any concrete (or even abstract) reasons given AT ALL.  Eevee, I was getting a town read off you, but who does that?

I want to believe you're just new and don't see how incredibly suspicious that kind of vague, unsubstantiated pseudo-accusation is.

Also, you say Mafia is playing well, but I'm not sure what that even means at this point. All we can say is that Mafia hasn't done anything unbelievably stupid.

The very first person that suspected him in his exercise, he flips out over. **Oh No! How could THAT have happened! Well, good thing Eevee didn't bring any PROOF.** Boy, shoe doesn't fit so well on the other foot, does it J?

-----

So there you go. Probably not as clear as I normally would like, but I'm tired, and I don't have AS much at stake as my M-II game. Again though, I ask that you not be led to my conclusion based on my argument, but based on your own reasoning. I just ask that you stop to consider, "How would *I* act if I were Mafia? What would I try and do?" I feel that if you look at J's posts through that light, you'll notice that he looks pretty darn scummy. Not because he appears to the TOWN as scummy, but because he DOESN'T, yet his actions don't lead to good Town results.

To sum up:

His actions didn't back up his words regarding early voting.
He got off the "bandwagon" of O to set himself as looking good for future days.
His "exercise", while well disguised, did nothing but hurt the town.
He responded vitriolically to the taste of his own medicine when Eevee put him on the "would vote tomorrow" list
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 05:41:31 am
I flunked the "not long" test. Sorry.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 02, 2012, 10:37:45 am
Oh good lord. Let's get into this.

First of all, I'm sorry for the disappearing act. I did SAY I was going to be not around much this weekend. I went out with friends last night, ended up sleeping elsewhere, don't have a smartphone.

Galzria took the opportunity to lead a town charge against me while he knew I wouldn't be able to defend myself. For those of you who haven't read M-II, one interesting highlight was when he, as mafia, led a blatant town charge against Kuildeous.

Normally I wouldn't expect mafia to be so obvious on Day 1, but there are some factors no one has pointed out:
1) There are 3 mafia this game. That means they can afford to play more recklessly. Two mafia can survive for a long time.
2)The looming deadline is going to impair our judgment, and that's too good an opportunity to pass up. Consider, those of you taking this crusade seriously: How would you have felt about it 3 days ago? How do you feel about it in the spectre of OMG WE MIGHT NOT LYNCH.
Yes, I know no-lynch is good for the mafia. But killing a townie is even better for the mafia.

A few more things before I respond to G's points.  Earlier he said that the mafia would encourage town to vote based on "scummy" behavior, but the real mafia would play in a pro-town way.  I agree with that. But you CAN'T IGNORE that it implicates Galz as much as me.

If someone is being helpful, you want to keep them around.  It's not pro-town to lynch your best people because they're being straightforward in their intentions. If you do kill me this round, when I flip town, I hope you'll see it as a lesson in that regard.

No, on to the point-by-point:

His actions didn't back up his words regarding early voting.

I've actually explained this above. Yes, a hammer fear was part of the reason I unvoted O and a hammer didn't look that likely. But I also unvoted O because I no longer suspected him to be mafia. I didn't really want to contribute to starting a bad bandwagon, and I'm glad that our suspicion has rolled another way (though I'm hoping that way isn't toward me, obviously).
 
He got off the "bandwagon" of O to set himself as looking good for future days.

This is just the vague "he's too pro-town" argument dressed up in specifics. I unvoted O because I no longer suspected him. That's pro-town play. Literally any pro-town play can sound like mafia play if you add "to set himself up as looking good for future days" to the end.

His "exercise", while well disguised, did nothing but hurt the town.

I beg to differ! The point of the exercise was to get the ball rolling and get everyone talking. Ferret out those lurkers.  It did that. It's hard to say, looking, how much of the ensuing conversation came out of it and how much would have happened naturally. I was worried our town, especially the newer players, wasn't talking enough. I got you talking. You're welcome.

He responded vitriolically to the taste of his own medicine when Eevee put him on the "would vote tomorrow" list

I've said before, I'll say it again. I advocate bold play, not stupid play. It's great to get out there and make accusations. In fact, it's key. It's bad (and it reads scum) to get out there and make accusations with no proof backing them up. I would think this would be self-evident. If you don't have a concrete reason to suspect someone, what does accusing them do. Does it, maybe, spread confusion? The thing Galzria is always saying is so bad for the town, and the thing that he also said was bad for the town in MII, where he was mafia?

Eevee is a new player eager to learn how to play the game. I explained what I consider to be a key tenet.


Deep breath.


You're a promising town. You're using good critical thinking. I can't tell at this point if Galzria is leading a ballzy scum charge or if he just has a totally wrong read and is employing confirmation bias. But I encourage the rest of you to critically think about this.

I know I'm playing differently than Mafia II, and that can look strange and worrying. In particular, on a few occasions I've been less nice. In retrospect, I flew off the handle at Eevee, I voted for O because he was being annoying, and in this post I'm admittedly getting a little miffed at Galzria.

In Mafia II, nice did not turn out to be an asset.  So this game I'm going for good town play, but also being bold, willing to put myself out there, even throw my vote around. If this gets me lynched, that will suck, but I guess I'll have learned a lesson for next game.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 02, 2012, 10:40:29 am
I don't want this to turn into a 1v1, me and Galz.  I'm highly suspicious of those kinds of exchange and I don't think they help the town. You've heard his side, you've heard my side, now we need to figure out who we're lynching.

I'm gonna read back and see if I can spot my own suspect.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 02, 2012, 10:47:06 am
I don't want this to turn into a 1v1, me and Galz.  I'm highly suspicious of those kinds of exchange and I don't think they help the town. You've heard his side, you've heard my side, now we need to figure out who we're lynching.

I'm gonna read back and see if I can spot my own suspect.

Holy crap that was a lot of text for someone with 1 vote on them. 
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 02, 2012, 10:54:06 am
One vote and an essay. One vote by the last game's master mafioso. I'm just trying to nip this thing in the bud.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 02, 2012, 10:57:25 am
Ok, I know I said I was done, but I want to just retract the implication that Galzria is mafia. It's way too obvious for day 1 mafia play, even with the possible reasons I stated above. I let myself get carried away. Rereading, I'm convinced Galz is town. He's just wrong about me.  And that makes total sense since, as he pointed out, I am playing similarly to how HE played as mafia last game.  But I'm also playing how I play as town.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 11:05:49 am
I don't think I need to add much more. C.F. Nailed it pretty well above there. And J saw this and dialed right back.

Like I said last night, deadline is tomorrow. I likely won't change my vote unless I have to in order to make 7 votes (instead of no-lynching).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 02, 2012, 11:33:06 am
Ok, I'm hunting through the posts so far and I'm coming around to Robz's (and Galz, really) assertion that the mafia is playing a middle game, not posting too much, not posting too much substance.

And what jumped out at me is def has posted very little, but his posts have been articulate and helpful-seeming. And he made an excuse early on where he said "I'm only going to post if I have something to say," and then went into a long post about having a real life.

So I'm thinking, what better way to ensure Day 1 survival then 1) establish some credibility 2) fade out, giving strong reasons for that.

I know I should be targeting someone who already has votes on them though if I'm going to help us get a lynch. And I'm still not convinced by Robz's defenses. Plus Robz is so good at this game that I'll never stop being suspicious of him, which is going to cloud my judgment on subsequent days.  And he's doing the accuse-your-accuser thing at Dsell, although he then cast his vote for Eevee.  Is voting for someone who already has votes on them town at this point or mafia?

CF suggested before that the mafia play for today is a no-lynch, which would be brilliant, actually.
It means the mafia are likely among those who have yet to vote, the people who will have a good, good excuse on Day 2. And it would point, again, to someone like def.

So I'm going to Vote: def even though it doesn't bring us much closer to a lynch. Having reread, he seems the most likely scum candidate to me.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 02, 2012, 11:43:19 am
I don't think I need to add much more. C.F. Nailed it pretty well above there. And J saw this and dialed right back.

Like I said last night, deadline is tomorrow. I likely won't change my vote unless I have to in order to make 7 votes (instead of no-lynching).

Ok, I responded to an essay with an essay. If you look at Mafia II, you'll see that's how I play as town too. All it means is that I talk too much. And I don't particularly want to be the Day 1 lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 11:54:22 am
I don't think I need to add much more. C.F. Nailed it pretty well above there. And J saw this and dialed right back.

Like I said last night, deadline is tomorrow. I likely won't change my vote unless I have to in order to make 7 votes (instead of no-lynching).

Ok, I responded to an essay with an essay. If you look at Mafia II, you'll see that's how I play as town too. All it means is that I talk too much. And I don't particularly want to be the Day 1 lynch.

Hey, I fully respect that. Nobody does. And lord knows I talk way too much as well. As I stated earlier, I DON'T want people to follow my lead and vote for you because I said so. I want them to think differently than players in M-I and M-II did. They should be looking for people who read strong town, not *maybe* Mafia.

Looking for Mafia making mistakes in round 1 will invariably lead to a town lynch. O kind of opened my eyes to that. Mafia just aren't going to act like Mafia day 1.

My thoughts personally are that you've done a fine job appearing as town (apparently so have I, and that's fine if you suspect me for it too), but your actions have been distinctly UNHELPFUL in their pro-town fashion. I'm just not buying your innocence.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on June 02, 2012, 11:59:54 am
Well, I was rather busy last night (and there's evidence of it this time right on this very board, Galzria) and have just now caught up to the latest round of posts.  Mulling now over lunch.  My thoughts, and vote, should be posted in the next two hours.  I will fail miserably atdo everything in my power to keep my analysis succinct.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 02, 2012, 12:03:57 pm
I don't think I need to add much more. C.F. Nailed it pretty well above there. And J saw this and dialed right back.

Like I said last night, deadline is tomorrow. I likely won't change my vote unless I have to in order to make 7 votes (instead of no-lynching).

Sorry for not posting more - was iphone posting previously - and that is just no fun.  I'm not necessarily suspicious of jotheonah on account of his essay, I was just noting that it was a strong reaction. 

Yes, G's post was long as well, but for all i know this is a Mafia super double-think play to have a big visible fight and then make up later where you'll both look clean.  I see decent reason for either of you to be suspicious.  Galzria for his excellent Mafia play in II and his redonculous post counts, and J for his very defensive responses to what looks like a relatively minor threat. 

There's reason to be suspicious of everyone - the vocal folks for being too vocal, the middle posters for trying to blend in, and the silent folks for trying to slide under the radar.  Erratic play is justified by the desire to not appear too pro-town and thus not get night killed etc.  Any of us here on a deep strategy forum are the types who really like to analyze our games, so I wouldn't expect any of us to come out and make a truly obvious play.

For now - I'm going to leave my vote because I don't have any stronger convictions.  I'll be dark for most of the day - hoping to play Mage Knight this afternoon - but I'll check in before bed.


I'm sticking with RobZ for now as I don't currently see a more compelling candidate, although I am
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 02, 2012, 12:09:15 pm

Looking for Mafia making mistakes in round 1 will invariably lead to a town lynch. O kind of opened my eyes to that. Mafia just aren't going to act like Mafia day 1.


I absolutely agree with that. But I think going the other extreme and trying to spot the towniest townie is just as bad. And you do too, because after you turned your attention toward me you started making real points against me that go beyond "he's so town" - the points I felt obliged to address.

I just think the safer, and more likely, play, especially for less experienced mafia, is to get involved as little as possible in the Day 1 scuffles. So I'm turning my eye toward the lurkers, as it were.

Unlike Galzria's strategy, which gambles killing one of our best town players against killing a mafia, mine merely gambles killing a quiet townsperson against killing a mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 12:11:38 pm
Well, I was rather busy last night (and there's evidence of it this time right on this very board, Galzria) and have just now caught up to the latest round of posts.  Mulling now over lunch.  My thoughts, and vote, should be posted in the next two hours.  I will fail miserably atdo everything in my power to keep my analysis succinct.

Don't worry Volt, I've said before that I don't actually hold absences against people. I just point them out to see what response I get. But it would never be part of a case against someone for me.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 12:20:12 pm
I disagree J. Look at Goober in M-I. Look at bozzball in M-II. Now look at where the Mafia were both games. Your change to def to me reads as a redirect to a target not able to defend himself - just the thing you accused me of doing, except that I have no doubts that you will defend yourself, because you're a present, active player. Def can't, or won't  do that.

You're going after bozzball* (def) here because it's the easy thing to do to move conversation. But that's just my feeling.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 12:34:38 pm
I should clarify for those who don't know: Goober and bozzball were both people who contributed a very little, when they could, but were unwilling to devote a lot of time and effort to their respective Mafia games - which is completely fair. They took part when they could, and within the 48 hour minimum. Both were town, not Mafia hiding. All the Mafia so far, in both completed games, have been quite active. There isn't much reason to think that would change here, and going after the quiet ones who won't defend themselves fully because they don't have the time doesn't sit well with me.

I went after J KNOWING that he would defend himself, and I still stand by my beliefs.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: yuma on June 02, 2012, 12:44:28 pm
After thinking about this last night, reading today's new posts and having a change in real life plans I have come to a decision....

and at the risk of making myself suspicious in Robz's eyes
Remember also that I suspect the mafia might want to vote earlier, rather than later. If you vote early, you CAN switch if you need to, but otherwise you are in good shape not to look bandwagon-y or hammering or whatnot. So it wouldn't surprise me to see some of the early voters as mafia.

I will Unvote and instead Vote: jotheonah. I am still highly suspicious of Morgrim, but I doubt anyone else is going to join me for that vote this round. Secondly, after this post I will be online for ~ 1 hour and then I am gone until Monday. Dinner with the in-laws turned into an overnighter with the in-laws at their cottage. I might be back right before the deadline, but I don't want to make any promises. As such I want to get my vote out there early and make it a vote that can actually accomplish something rather than be dead.

The reason I am voting for jotheonah is not so much Galzaria's post about it, but jotheonahs multiple responses and long winded responses as well as his reaction to CF's comment and his vote for def.

Galzaria's post was long--so having jotheonah write a long response in return isn't very surprising. But his tone and approach seemed defensive and reactionary for just one voter.

His reaction to CF was interesting as it seemed he realized afterward that reacting so strongly was very suspicious. He realized he was trying too hard and as Galzria said, "dialed it back."

As for the vote for def I agree with Galzria that it is an attempt to redirect attention from yourself to someone else. Your reasoning for this vote just isn't good enough to pass.

I may be getting played by Galzria. And with that he has moved up on my list along with Robz and still Morgrim.

If any of you think my vote is a bad idea let me know about it quick, I won't be on much longer, especially as this post took me longer than I anticipated to write.

Status:
Suspicious: Galzria, Morgrim, Robz, Jotheonah
Not suspicious: Michaeljb
Vote: jotheonah
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on June 02, 2012, 01:04:39 pm
Vote: jotheonah for basically the reasons laid out by others, and one snippet from your voting post:

It means the mafia are likely among those who have yet to vote,

The fact that this is strongly emphasized just feels to me like you're trying to drive the town into a frenzy, like how Galzria noted your "exercise" did. Making the point that it's good for the town to vote in a more understated way would have been more helpful, I think.

I'm still definitely suspicious of Morgrim, seems like he's happy to ride with the insanity defense, but like yuma pointed out there looks to be no chance of lynching him today, so voting for him would be just as effective as voting no lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on June 02, 2012, 01:10:00 pm
*additionally, jtheonah your vote for def I think is going to be as good as voting no lynch, but of course actually voting for someone least does keep you out of the haven't-voted-so-likely-mafia-group you invented.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on June 02, 2012, 01:15:36 pm
With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Robz888 (3) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee
jotheonah (3) - Galzria, yuma, michaeljb,
Eevee (2) - O, Robz
def (1) - jotheonah

Not Voting (4) - def, Voltgloss, Morgrim7, eHalcyon

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 02, 2012, 01:22:34 pm
Do I really have no votes on me again? What do you guys need me to do??? Roleclaim something that actually might be in the game?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on June 02, 2012, 01:26:02 pm
I feel like such a sheep, everytime someone posts a long, well-written analysis (actually, shorter ones do as well if they are smart enough) as to why someone is likely scum, I feel like "omg that's so correct!!". Makes me wonder how easily I could be (mis)led by mafia as well..
I cant really fathom Galzria being mafia after those posts, he sounds so genuine.. but maybe I'm way too easy to fool. Still, he looks to me like perhaps _the_ most helpful townie so he is the last person I'd vote for atm.

Btw, I dont mind the long posts at all guys, they feel helpful (even convincing) and you are not just talking in circles but actually getting somewhere with them.

// Haha O, i dont really understand what you are doing.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 02, 2012, 01:27:49 pm

I cant really fathom Galzria being mafia after those posts, he sounds so genuine.. but maybe I'm way too easy to fool. Still, he looks to me like perhaps _the_ most helpful townie so he is the last person I'd vote for atm.


You might want to read up on the end of Mafia II.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 01:30:02 pm

I cant really fathom Galzria being mafia after those posts, he sounds so genuine.. but maybe I'm way too easy to fool. Still, he looks to me like perhaps _the_ most helpful townie so he is the last person I'd vote for atm.


You might want to read up on the end of Mafia II.

I agree. But I'm still town.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 02, 2012, 01:31:52 pm

I cant really fathom Galzria being mafia after those posts, he sounds so genuine.. but maybe I'm way too easy to fool. Still, he looks to me like perhaps _the_ most helpful townie so he is the last person I'd vote for atm.


You might want to read up on the end of Mafia II.

I agree. But I'm still town.

Wasn't implicating you. Jus' saying you making long allegedly-helpful posts doesn't disqualify you at all  :P
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on June 02, 2012, 01:34:11 pm

I cant really fathom Galzria being mafia after those posts, he sounds so genuine.. but maybe I'm way too easy to fool. Still, he looks to me like perhaps _the_ most helpful townie so he is the last person I'd vote for atm.


You might want to read up on the end of Mafia II.

I agree. But I'm still town.
Thats just super scary. Wow. Got to take everything with a grain of salt in these games then, uh.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: yuma on June 02, 2012, 01:41:23 pm
Well I am off.... My vote is going to stay the same. Hope for the best.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 02, 2012, 01:48:12 pm
Ok, it will likely look scummy, but I will follow michaeljb's advice and join a viable bandwagon.
Robz and O's collusion on Eevee in the face of very little evidence is strange to me. Can you two explain your case a bit better?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 02, 2012, 01:50:29 pm
Ok, it will likely look scummy, but I will follow michaeljb's advice and join a viable bandwagon.
Robz and O's collusion on Eevee in the face of very little evidence is strange to me. Can you two explain your case a bit better?

Collusion? What collusion? I voted and then Robz voted after me.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 02, 2012, 01:51:21 pm
Addendum: Mostly, why is it collusion when me and Robz both vote for the same person, when theres two other people with 3+ votes on them? Are the 3 people voting on someone not colluding?

Its an inane point.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 02, 2012, 02:53:32 pm
Okay, having read the recent exchange.... I really don't think Jotheonah is mafia. He seems to tense and angry. I think he would have played things a little closer to the chest if we were mafia. He's gone off on people a bit and... I would expect him to be more guarded. Really, I don't blame him for that "who do you think?" exercise at all. We need to do things like that or else we will have the dreaded "No Lynch," which nobody wants.

Unfortunately, I'm quite worried we're heading into a it's him or me scenario. Yuck.

So, about Eevee:

I feel like such a sheep, everytime someone posts a long, well-written analysis (actually, shorter ones do as well if they are smart enough) as to why someone is likely scum, I feel like "omg that's so correct!!". Makes me wonder how easily I could be (mis)led by mafia as well..
I cant really fathom Galzria being mafia after those posts, he sounds so genuine.. but maybe I'm way too easy to fool. Still, he looks to me like perhaps _the_ most helpful townie so he is the last person I'd vote for atm.

Btw, I dont mind the long posts at all guys, they feel helpful (even convincing) and you are not just talking in circles but actually getting somewhere with them.

// Haha O, i dont really understand what you are doing.

I am not buying his "aw shucks" routine at all. He is constantly, constantly saying things like he doesn't know what's going on, or is worried about being played, he's new to this, blah blah blah... he is down-playing his skills in every possible posts he makes. And they are silly. And every now and then they are serious. Indeed, he has already voted for me.

Could it be genuine? Sure. But I'm willing to be it's at least partly an act. That's the best lead I have. My only other big suspect is Dsell, but I guess there's a good chance that he is just wrong, wrong, wrong rather than he is mafia. So I would stick with Eevee.

Um, Galzria--can I convince you not to vote for J? You are so sure. I think you're wrong. He's being way too confrontational for mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 03:10:42 pm
Robz, consider this: He's only become confrontational since I started getting on him. He was directing things back-scenes before then. And yes, I DO think that "exercise" was a terrible town move, disguised well.

I'm comfortable with my read and vote. Maybe it's unorthodox? But I don't think so. Being my first town game, and after just finishing a Mafia game, his actions strike me as nearly EXACTLY as I would have acted day 1.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 02, 2012, 03:11:53 pm
But what about Eevee? Do you see what I'm saying? Lalala I don't know what I'm doing, I'm just a cute Pokemon, lalala... and IT'S SUSPICIOUS.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 03:29:00 pm
I do agree that Eevee is acting like... Well, exactly like Eevee says, he's being a sheep, not really adding anything new or original. Possible Mafia? Yes, I think he could be. But I think tells like that are dangerous to read day 1.

Not that my read on J isn't dangerous either. But I know J is a smart player. Like I said, I feel MORE inclined to suspect those I feel more comfortable with. The new people, I won't write off, but I have less knowledge to consider a case with.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on June 02, 2012, 03:39:36 pm
But what about Eevee? Do you see what I'm saying? Lalala I don't know what I'm doing, I'm just a cute Pokemon, lalala... and IT'S SUSPICIOUS.
Uhm, the nickname I chose when joining this forum has something to do with my status in this game? Feels like some of your accusations dont really have anything to do with how people have behaved in this game.

Idk, I had a lot more confidence in my abilities when the game started (which was probably apparent by my posts as well). You know, I'm used to feeling smart.

When the game progressed, no one ever really said "thats a good point" or anything like that (and no, I dont think I thought of anything genious so not saying someone should have) but rather picked my posts apart saying "thats bad for town" (which isn't too couraging given helping town is all I know I've tried to do). Having this little clue as to who to vote also makes me feel like I'm not playing as well as I hoped before the game. You know, I've just felt a little stupid this whole game.
Fwiw I do know what I'm doing in the sense of "I try to think for as good reasons as possible for all my actions". I think I'm a new player with a somewhat realistic picture of my skill level atm, while before the game I was somewhat overconfident, thinking "how hard can it be".

I feel like me posting _anything_ at all this close to our deadline will only make me a more likely lynching target (especially since I dont have any "evidence" against anyone else - I just know my own role and try to explain my actions) but I have nothing to hide so I guess it's still better to try to explain myself. Robz, try not to make a connection with "how much someone has played &/ if you have played with them earlier / how well you think you are able to read someone" and their role in this game. I dont think choosing the somewhat random first lynch target only amongst the newer players is fair / good.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 02, 2012, 03:58:11 pm
Popping in for now, and will be gone again soon until (probably) late tonight.

Day 1 is such a rollercoaster already.  Early suspects Morgrim and O are now vote-less, with the town gaze shifting in entirely new directions.

Galzria makes a very convincing post about j, and I actually agree with Robz' assessment of Eevee's "I feel like a sheep" talk.  But the problem is that I have that sentiment as well.  Reading Galzria's big post, I found my suspicions of j growing.  And then reading his defense alleviated that suspicion a fair bit.  So while I find Eevee's behaviour somewhat suspicious, the fact is that I'm the same way so I can't blame him for that.

I actually don't suspect Robz at all right now.  In my opinion, Galzria's points are stronger than j's defense.  I am therefore extremely inclined to vote for j.

Since I'll be away for most of today and my vote would put him at 4 (which could be critical mass?) I'll hold off for now and reevaluate tonight based on whatever new info we have.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 02, 2012, 04:24:19 pm
I'm going to be on and off today, but obviously I will try to follow this as closely as possible.

As promised, here's a short analysis of how well I think people might be playing if they were mafia:

def: Super hard for me to get a read on, hoping to hear more back. So while I actually doubt he's mafia because of his inactivity, if he were, it is pretty smart. So at this point it would be a good mafia game, but only to get him to day 2.

Michaeljb: Moderately-light participant. He's had some good content but he's been succinct. Aside from Robz' and Galzria's assertions this is where mafia could be hiding, it looks like it would be decent mafia play. Definitely not bringing any strong suspicion down on himself day 1 but I don't think anyone is saying "oh yeah he's for sure town" either.

eHalcyon: Kinda the same boat as Michael, maybe a tad more substance. Decent mafia play but I really don't see it. I get a lot more of a town read on him.

yuma: Again, same boat as Michael. His posts tend to be a little forgettable, which is perhaps just where the mafia want to be day 1. Not really adding a ton to the conversation. It's not so much that it's like...transparently bad mafia play though or anything.

Voltgloss: Aside from being absent some I get a strong town read on him. He seems just very straight-forward, very bright. So if he's mafia, I think he's playing very well.

Eevee: Hmmmm...this is where it gets a little tougher, because he has some votes on him and some arguments against him. I could almost see this one going either way if he was mafia...his innocent newbieish ways are either a really terrible mafia ploy to deflect suspicion (bad mafia play) or a super sneaky mafia double play to look so suspicious that he couldn't be mafia (good but risky mafia play). Personally, I think he's just new. (He? I'm basically using "he" on everyone here, I don't know if it's right or not...)

Jotheonah: I don't see his play as very mafia. I actually agree with Robz, I think he's been somewhat reactionary, and I think a mafioso might be a bit more tempered. I'm also not so sure that his "who would you vote for if you had to vote tomorrow" stunt was such a bad idea because, well, here we are, we have to vote by tomorrow. I think it was a good opportunity for people to get a little more serious and get some suspicions out there. I'm not sure if this all means that he has played well if he's mafia, or if it means he's played badly as mafia. I mean, he has some people who really suspect him and some who really don't. I guess if he's mafia he's been doing ok?

O: It's been said a few times that he could be doing some sort of mafia double-play, making himself look too suspicious to be mafia. I basically agree that this could be the case, so while I tend to think he's town, he would be playing quite well if he were mafia.

Captain_Frisk: I'm not quite sure where I stand on this but I think if he were mafia he would not be playing the best game. He's added a few substantive things but one of the more significant things he's done is vote for Robz after I made a strong case for him. If he were mafia, trying to hop on a bandwagon really early might seem like a good idea, but I'm really not convinced that it is. Sure he'll probably make it through day one, but if he helped to mislynch Robz (I still think Robz is the best person to lynch, I think he's our best bet at getting mafia), I think there would be a LOT of suspicion on him. Because his play would look bad if he were mafia, I think Frisk is town.

Galzria: He's been strong and outspoken. Like he has admitted himself, his "helpfulness," by his own argument, could mean he's mafia. I think that if he is mafia, he's playing pretty well. I don't necessarily get a town vibe from him. But maybe I'm just jaded from his brilliant play in Mafia II.

Morgrim: Who. Knows. Seriously, I get a town read from him but I don't know if I could necessarily tell town Morgrim from mafia Morgrim. I guess I think he would take the game a little more seriously? Etiher way I don't think he's really dangerous or anything so I do NOT think he should be a factor in this weekend's voting.

Robz: Well I'm a little biased. Also, I actually think that I put him on the defensive pretty early in this game, so it probably is harder to get a read on him than others with a fair amount of posts. I personally think his defenses have been unconvincing and have reminded me so much of Mafia II where I suspected him of being mafia from the very start. Yet his other posts and even his defenses more recently (since the end of Mafia II maybe?) have been a little stronger. I think this is quite strong mafia play, and I think he's doing a good job of convincing you all to look elsewhere. I still think Robz is dangerous guys, seriously.

Dsell: Again, biased. But IF I were mafia, I actually don't think I would be playing well. I've taken one of the riskier game plans, going after one of the strongest and most experienced players, who is excellent at defending himself. I started a campaign against him before anyone else had suspected him at all, or even had any reason to suspect him. I could have jumped on Morgrim or O, who have confuzzled a few people, or on Eevee for being "suspiciously newbish" or on def because "we can't reward the non-participants." But no, I jumped on Robz, and have been fairly relentless. Seriously, how bad would that look if I led this whole campaign based on nothing and then we lynched town? Pretty bad. Of course that scenario also works if I'm misguided town (I certainly hope I'm not) but either way that's WAY more suspicion than I would want to put on myself early on if I were mafia.

I hope this helps someone! If you disagree about something, let me know! More discussion is good at this point! It's also getting perilously close to the time when we just really ought to vote, especially because there are likely to be a few people who are going to have to compromise who they think is the best option for someone else just because we really have got to get a lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on June 02, 2012, 04:30:11 pm
Well, it's time to vote for who I think is the most suspicious.  And for me, going everyone's Day 1 behavior, the most suspicious person I see - is Robz

- In post #338, Robz reacted to Dsell's suspicions - which he at first ignored, he admits now willingly - by (1) admitting them and (2) being, in his own words, nasty back to Dsell, claiming Dsell was near the top of his list of suspects.

- In post #375, Robz reacted to Dsell's increasing suspicions by admitting that he (Robz) has been doing the same things he accuses Dsell and Eevee of doing.  And adding that Dsell's "razor-focus" on him was "interesting."

- In post #402, Robz accused Dsell of leading a charge against one of the town's most helpful players (himself).  And said that Dsell's behavior is just how he'd expect a new player to act if he were Mafia.  And added that, if he (Robz) were Mafia, he wouldn't act the way he described Mafia should act.

- In post #426, Robz said he changes his play style each game.  He also accused Dsell of trying to preemptively weasel out of responsibility for/wash his hands of mislynching Robz.

- Finally, in post #471, Robz lays out the case for Dsell and Eevee.  He suspects Dsell because:


He suspects Eevee because:


He votes Eevee explicitly because there is already a vote on Eevee.

So, why do I suspect Robz?


Robz says of Dsell, "he has a Robz888 focus and as Robz888 I don't get it."  As someone who is NOT Robz888, looking at their discussion from the outside, I do get it.

And finally, here's the clincher, from Robz's most recent post about Eevee:

But what about Eevee? Do you see what I'm saying? Lalala I don't know what I'm doing, I'm just a cute Pokemon, lalala... and IT'S SUSPICIOUS.

I don't recall Eevee saying he's "just a cute Pokemon."  I do recall someone saying it, though.

haha trying my best to be insightful and smart and coming out as silly, thats painful to hear :D

You are insightful. I meant that you are insightful and a little silly, which strikes me as mafia. But it could be that I am exaggerating how silly you are because you are a cute Pokemon.

Robz is accusing Eevee of doing something that, in fact, Robz himself did.

Vote: Robz

---

*WIFOM = Wine In Front Of Me.  See http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=WIFOM

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 02, 2012, 04:43:10 pm
Well, I'm sorry for you, Voltgloss. Well articulated arguments and eventually votes against Morgrim, Kuildeous, Insomniac, and now me. You are about to be 0-4, my friend.

Substantive rebuttal to follow.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 02, 2012, 04:49:34 pm
O, you could try being a little helpful.

Re: collusion. Let me say this a different way. Everyone who has multiple votes on them has had a case laid out against them. But at the time I wrote that I couldn't really find the case against Eevee. Just some vague comments and 2 votes. It seemed a little odd. I asked for clarification. I got it from Robz. You, however, jumped on one word of my post and ignored the part that was a question directly addressed to you.

So, O. Why are you voting for Eevee?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 02, 2012, 04:52:10 pm
Well, I'm sorry for you, Voltgloss. Well articulated arguments and eventually votes against Morgrim, Kuildeous, Insomniac, and now me. You are about to be 0-4, my friend.

See, but that's just really unhelpful and spiteful. If you are trying to discredit him, I think that's the worst, worst, worst way to do it. Especially because YOU and YOUR arguments were a large part of why he went 0-3. But now you blame and try to discredit him for it?

- In post #375, Robz reacted to Dsell's increasing suspicions by admitting that he (Robz) has been doing the same things he accuses Dsell and Eevee of doing.  And adding that Dsell's "razor-focus" on him was "interesting."

I actually thought this one was really interesting too. I didn't say much about it because it doesn't really mean much, just kind of a passing comment, but it struck me as him being a little incredulous, kinda dumbstruck that I would suspect him. I don't think a townie would be dumbstruck, but I think a mafia who thought he was playing well would be.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on June 02, 2012, 04:53:09 pm
Well, I'm sorry for you, Voltgloss. Well articulated arguments and eventually votes against Morgrim, Kuildeous, Insomniac, and now me. You are about to be 0-4, my friend.

To be fair, those first three times I had two devils on my shoulders.  ;) 

(OMG AN EMOTICON AND HE'S BEING SILLY HE MUST BE MAFIA)  /sarcasm

Pre-post edit:  Ninja'd by Dsell, but I like my joke, so I'm still posting it.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 02, 2012, 04:56:48 pm
(He? I'm basically using "he" on everyone here, I don't know if it's right or not...)

Eevee's isotropic name is MrEevee, so I assume "he".  Also, I posted this earlier but nobody responded!

Um, hey, what are all your preferred pronouns?  I don't want to refer to someone as "he" when she is a "she".  Or even an "it", if it prefers.

Anyway, it's actually time for me to go now.  Will check in again tonight.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 02, 2012, 05:00:30 pm
Eevee's isotropic name is MrEevee, so I assume "he".  Also, I posted this earlier but nobody responded!

Oops, sorry! For the record I am a he. When I'm not sure I usually check people's profiles, but Eevee did not have a gender specified.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 02, 2012, 05:08:35 pm
So, why do I suspect Robz?

  • He responded to Dsell's mild suspicion, first by ignoring it; second by being nasty back; and third by attacking him in return.
  • He has not fairly met Dsell's core criticism:  that Robz is acting exactly like he says the Mafia would act.  Robz admits this, but asserts it doesn't matter, because why would he act like he says the Mafia would act?  But this devolves into WIFOM* that I don't find compelling:  Robz himself laid out those criteria, and could just as well be a Mafia acting in accordance therewith so he could claim (as he has) that he can't be Mafia or he wouldn't have laid out those criteria.
  • His insistence that he is one of the town's most helpful players and so shouldn't be lynched.  But he hasn't been helpful;  he's been (in his own words) nasty, needling, and accusatory towards those who have dared to suspect him.
  • His accusation that Dsell tried to preemptively defend himself in case of a mislynch.  "Everybody remember that?"  Actually, no, Robz, I don't.  I remember you characterizing one of Dsell's posts as that, and I remember Dsell rebutting your characterization as inaccurate.  And I definitely do not remember you fairly meeting the substance of his rebuttal.  Or meeting it at all, in fact.

Okay, here is Dsell's weaseling out:

If I turn out to be wrong and lead your lynch and you turn out to be a townie, that would be very unfortunate. And I would expect a lot of suspicion to be cast on me, rightly so. But I trust that my posts thus far and future posts will be clear, well-reasoned, and show my support for the town.

And he did it again recently:

I'm going to be on and off today, but obviously I will try to follow this as closely as possible.

As promised, here's a short analysis of how well I think people might be playing if they were mafia:

Dsell: Again, biased. But IF I were mafia, I actually don't think I would be playing well. I've taken one of the riskier game plans, going after one of the strongest and most experienced players, who is excellent at defending himself. I started a campaign against him before anyone else had suspected him at all, or even had any reason to suspect him. I could have jumped on Morgrim or O, who have confuzzled a few people, or on Eevee for being "suspiciously newbish" or on def because "we can't reward the non-participants." But no, I jumped on Robz, and have been fairly relentless. Seriously, how bad would that look if I led this whole campaign based on nothing and then we lynched town? Pretty bad. Of course that scenario also works if I'm misguided town (I certainly hope I'm not) but either way that's WAY more suspicion than I would want to put on myself early on if I were mafia.

When I come up Town, Dsell is going to deflect the suspicion toward him by saying it was too risky and unnecessary for a mafia person to go after someone so strongly round 1. So he has his defense all planned. In that way, killing me is great for him, because it gets rid of a dangerous townie and creates a nice defense for him later: "See, I can't be mafia! I did this!" Not that this is essentially a defense I employed in Mafia II, by gradually trying to shift the opinion to, oh the mafia wouldn't have launched this campaign against Morgrim, it was dangerous and unnecessary, the non-Morgrim voters are the truly suspicious ones. When in reality, 2 of the 3 who strongly pushed for Morgrim were mafia. Dsell's mistake is that he is trying to do this before I am even dead and buried.

Robz says of Dsell, "he has a Robz888 focus and as Robz888 I don't get it."  As someone who is NOT Robz888, looking at their discussion from the outside, I do get it.

And finally, here's the clincher, from Robz's most recent post about Eevee:

But what about Eevee? Do you see what I'm saying? Lalala I don't know what I'm doing, I'm just a cute Pokemon, lalala... and IT'S SUSPICIOUS.

I don't recall Eevee saying he's "just a cute Pokemon."  I do recall someone saying it, though.

haha trying my best to be insightful and smart and coming out as silly, thats painful to hear :D

You are insightful. I meant that you are insightful and a little silly, which strikes me as mafia. But it could be that I am exaggerating how silly you are because you are a cute Pokemon.

Robz is accusing Eevee of doing something that, in fact, Robz himself did.

I didn't mean to imply that Eevee said he was a cute Pokemon. You're right, I said that, and sort of in jest both times. I apologize: You're right that I made it look the wrong way. That was unintentional. But my point about Eevee--that he wield his sheep-like attitude and his inexperience as a weapon--remains.

Volt, if I am mafia, I am playing a pretty sloppy game. Do I play sloppy?

Of course I don't expect to convince you. Yes, I'm accusing all the people who voted for me (well, not Captain Frisk), but I'm beginning to imagine a Dsell, Eevee, Voltgloss team.

They have certainly already begun acquitting each other:

I'm-pretty-sure-is-town: Voltgloss, Dsell (good, well-argumented posts that strongly make me feel like I can trust you. Either of these being mafia is a scary thought but I can't really see that being the case, it doesnt seem like either is holding any info back).

A final impression:  out of everyone else so far, Dsell seems to be making the most generally reasonable, well-thought-out posts.  If I had to pick "most likely other player to be Town" at this very moment, I'd pick him. 

I know what they will say, and I know what many of you will say: If they were all mafia, there's no way they would play so closely, or vote together so immediately, or invest such public trust in each other, because it would look two suspicious. I believe they are employing a double bluff (double, single, triple? I can't count). Because we would not suspect people who do that, for exactly that reason. I believe they are giving it a try--working in semi-obvious tandem, so in tandem that it can't be possible.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 02, 2012, 05:14:21 pm
Eevee's isotropic name is MrEevee, so I assume "he".  Also, I posted this earlier but nobody responded!

Oops, sorry! For the record I am a he. When I'm not sure I usually check people's profiles, but Eevee did not have a gender specified.

A side note, but this has something to do with... something else I was wondering. This is a sort of out of left field request, but... I was really curious about everybody's gender, age, job, and country of origin. If you don't want to answer, that's fine, and of course you could just lie. I know this information might help me in my readings on a couple people.

Well, anyway, if nobody wants to do it, that's fine. But I'll start: I am a 23-year-old male from Detroit, Michigan. I am a journalist who writes mostly about public policy, specifically higher education.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 02, 2012, 05:16:30 pm
Robz, I think you're grasping at straws.  The mafia don't need to lynch anyone today. They can live with a no-lynch. You're saying they're placing the first 3 votes on you? You are following your established scum pattern of always accusing your accusers. And I'm not buying it.

Unvote

Vote: Robz888

I'm voting precisely because I don't believe all of Robz's accusers to be mafia, and I'm finding their case against him much more compelling then either G's case against me or Robz's case against Eevee.

PREPOST EDIT:
You know this Robz, but journalist (science, magazine), 24, NYC
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 02, 2012, 05:19:57 pm
I know what they will say, and I know what many of you will say: If they were all mafia, there's no way they would play so closely, or vote together so immediately, or invest such public trust in each other, because it would look two suspicious. I believe they are employing a double bluff (double, single, triple? I can't count). Because we would not suspect people who do that, for exactly that reason. I believe they are giving it a try--working in semi-obvious tandem, so in tandem that it can't be possible.

The idea that we are a team is ridiculous. That would be the WORST mafia play ever. You can make your above argument about literally any interaction. "Oh they are voting together? Must be a double bluff! They're mafia!" "Oh, Dsell and Galzria are making cases against different people? Must be a bluff to distract us! They're mafia!" "Oh, Jotheonah and Galzria are fighting with each other? They're really experienced...must be a triple bluff! They're mafia!"

Your rebuttal has made me feel pretty confident about my vote again.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 02, 2012, 05:24:25 pm
Robz, I think you're grasping at straws.  The mafia don't need to lynch anyone today. They can live with a no-lynch. You're saying they're placing the first 3 votes on you? You are following your established scum pattern of always accusing your accusers. And I'm not buying it.

Actually, this is wrong. It's always been wrong. The mafia prefer lynching an innocent to No Lynch. They only prefer No Lynch to lynching mafia.

(Yes, last game I argued that No Lynch helped the mafia. I was lying. I was the mafia.)

The fewer day lynches, the more nights. The more nights, the more townies using their powers to figure things out. The mafia absolutely want two deaths per cycle, not one. They want us to kill someone, as long as it isn't one of them.

That's not to say WE should do No Lynch. But the mafia aren't aiming for No Lynch either. They are aiming for me.

Unvote

Vote: Robz888

I'm voting precisely because I don't believe all of Robz's accusers to be mafia, and I'm finding their case against him much more compelling then either G's case against me or Robz's case against Eevee.

PREPOST EDIT:
You know this Robz, but journalist (science, magazine), 24, NYC

Well, I'm not asking you to believe the case against all of them. I am asking you to believe the case against one of them: Eevee. 5 votes for me! This is trouble.

Well, perhaps it's not so bad. I can still win if I'm dead. I am a Townie, and you will learn that soon. Hopefully you will remember what I think: Please do not let Dsell acquit himself on his defense that "Oh, why would I go after Robz, if I were mafia?" I will suspect Eevee, Dsell, and Voltgloss to my grave. In any case, you will see that either Dsell or Voltgloss were very, very, very wrong--so stop listening to them!--or that perhaps they are mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 05:25:31 pm
What I find more suspicious Robz, is that Volt COMPLETELY ignored me and J. This indicates to me (scary thought), that there very well could be 2 in V-J. See, V neither wanted to help J out directly by defending him, nor did he want to come after me because he can kill me at night. By ignoring J and I, and redirecting to where there is already suspicions he could hit two birds with one stone.

I'm not really going to focus on Mafiosi #2 at this point, but I feel that was very important to get out there. I had been waiting for awhile for V to speak up, and now he has. My Mafia trio :

J-V-#3
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 02, 2012, 05:25:43 pm
The idea that we are a team is ridiculous. That would be the WORST mafia play ever.

But it comes with a built-in defense!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 02, 2012, 05:26:53 pm
What I find more suspicious Robz, is that Volt COMPLETELY ignored me and J. This indicates to me (scary thought), that there very well could be 2 in V-J. See, V neither wanted to help J out directly by defending him, nor did he want to come after me because he can kill me at night. By ignoring J and I, and redirecting to where there is already suspicions he could hit two birds with one stone.

I'm not really going to focus on Mafiosi #2 at this point, but I feel that was very important to get out there. I had been waiting for awhile for V to speak up, and now he has. My Mafia trio :

J-V-#3

Yeah, obviously I don't like J getting on this bandwagon. I mean, I can see him doing it just because he's town and he would rather not die, though, you know?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 05:27:12 pm
Basically town, V and J are trying RIGHT NOW to slam the door on Robz, and if successful, you will have NEITHER of us day 2.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 02, 2012, 05:29:15 pm
Basically town, V and J are trying RIGHT NOW to slam the door on Robz, and if successful, you will have NEITHER of us day 2.

That is a good point.

TOWN: DO you hear us? I am absolutely going to come up Town (possibly in a few minutes). The bad guys are among these people who voted for me. I'm positive of that.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 02, 2012, 05:30:10 pm
Can you see me doing it because the players who are attacking you are making a convincing argument whereas you are not? Cause that's what's happening...

I hate to leave it like this, I really do, but I have a ticket for a Jonathan Coulton concert and I gotta head out. Back on much later tonight.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 02, 2012, 05:31:13 pm
Can you see me doing it because the players who are attacking you are making a convincing argument whereas you are not? Cause that's what's happening...

I hate to leave it like this, I really do, but I have a ticket for a Jonathan Coulton concert and I gotta head out. Back on much later tonight.

Their argument is terrible. Luckily, it will be disproved quite soon.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 02, 2012, 05:35:35 pm
Well, perhaps it's not so bad. I can still win if I'm dead. I am a Townie, and you will learn that soon. Hopefully you will remember what I think: Please do not let Dsell acquit himself on his defense that "Oh, why would I go after Robz, if I were mafia?"

I am not making this defense. Robz is making it for me. I don't think I'm wrong. If I'm wrong, yeah it's gonna be suspicious. I've been transparent about that. If Robz IS mafia, I think it's safe to say that I will be acquitted (and probably will die at night). But NO one is for sure innocent if we lynch a townie. That's just the game.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 02, 2012, 05:40:02 pm
Basically town, V and J are trying RIGHT NOW to slam the door on Robz, and if successful, you will have NEITHER of us day 2.

That is a good point.

TOWN: DO you hear us? I am absolutely going to come up Town (possibly in a few minutes). The bad guys are among these people who voted for me. I'm positive of that.

But this...is not true? Robz is at FIVE. SEVEN are needed to lynch. If V and J were mafia partners, their partner is UNABLE to hammer without some help. From someone who is not here? Galzria, you are adamant that Robz cannot be mafia. I don't understand this, but do you not realize that a lynch is better for the town than a no lynch? You seem just altogether unwilling to budge.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 05:42:02 pm
I DON'T think Eevee is Mafia. I DON'T think Dsell is Mafia. I don't know about most of the rest. I think Robz got quickly in over his head. It's a side effect of needling too much.

AT THIS POINT, Voltgloss and Jotheonah are trying to move Robz from "just a guy with a few votes" to "deadline is looming, let's kill someone!", and they are doing it as the middle voters!

I am 95% sure Robz is town. I WAS HIS MAFIA PARTNER last game, and this is NOT how he plays as Mafia!

J is Mafia, and I've got a VERY strong feeling Volt is his partner.

As was pointed out, a Mafia Robz would fakeclaim. With 5 votes he isn't! Those last 2 could come at any time. I BEG you to reconsider this. You're being played the same way Robz and I played Volt/Insomniac/Kuildeous/Jotheonah and the rest in M-II! I know because I DID it there.

All I can ask is that you trust me on this, talking from experience, and make the right choice NOW, before you go down 2 town by day 2.

Jotheonah IS Mafia. Volt PROBABLY is Mafia. Robz IS town.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on June 02, 2012, 05:46:07 pm
I'm sitting in a movie about to start and will be unable to posst for several hours.  I did not comment on G vs. J because I find neither of them more suspicious than R, and had limited time to discuss my thoughts.  If people think I am suspicious for not weighing in on that debate, i'll do so, but it won't be until late tonight.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 02, 2012, 05:50:06 pm
I DON'T think Eevee is Mafia. I DON'T think Dsell is Mafia. I don't know about most of the rest. I think Robz got quickly in over his head. It's a side effect of needling too much.

AT THIS POINT, Voltgloss and Jotheonah are trying to move Robz from "just a guy with a few votes" to "deadline is looming, let's kill someone!", and they are doing it as the middle voters!

I am 95% sure Robz is town. I WAS HIS MAFIA PARTNER last game, and this is NOT how he plays as Mafia!

J is Mafia, and I've got a VERY strong feeling Volt is his partner.

As was pointed out, a Mafia Robz would fakeclaim. With 5 votes he isn't! Those last 2 could come at any time. I BEG you to reconsider this. You're being played the same way Robz and I played Volt/Insomniac/Kuildeous/Jotheonah and the rest in M-II! I know because I DID it there.

All I can ask is that you trust me on this, talking from experience, and make the right choice NOW, before you go down 2 town by day 2.

Jotheonah IS Mafia. Volt PROBABLY is Mafia. Robz IS town.

Why are you SO panicked about this? Even if you die at night, if Robz turns up town it will only confirm what you are saying. I just don't see a need to get so worked up. Worst case scenario: Robz is lynched today and turns up town, you die tonight. Tons of suspicion on me, I am lynched tomorrow and turn up town, a rando is killed in the night. At this point your theory looks REALLY REALLY good and the town would have to consider it, and they would still have time. So quit freaking out.

The only thing that could throw a wrench in things is if we have a serial killer, but I don't think we should/can even factor that in until we see what happens in the night.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 05:50:46 pm
Yes, he can't be quick hammered, and he won't. Hammering isn't a real Mafia tool. Can you not see that? It's a scare tactic and a hide tactic by the Mafia. "The biggest suspect in a lynch vote is the final one" IS A FALLACY. It's a tactic employed BY the Mafia because it seems logical. The Mafia will already moved the vote within striking distance, and then let a townie cast the lynch votes. What better way to set them up for the next day? Think about it.

We need to vote, yes. But we have the chance to vote right here people, not wrong. The tells are all there, as I've explained them. But people need to open their eyes and realize that the Mafia in this game aren't going to magically appear scummy, when they never do in ANY game of forum Mafia. Robz is the wrong place to go, and we have the time to make the right choice now.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 05:55:32 pm
Dsell,, your arguments now are: let's lynch him, and let you die, and then watch two more town go day 2. It's all ok.

That's a TERRIBLE stance. Basically "I'm willing to lynch town and don't care to hit Mafia when we have the chance". I'm not worried about a no-lynch vote right now. We still have time to make a GOOD choice. Pushing for a kill with time to consider still is very, very bad.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 05:58:25 pm
In addition, while your argument (briefly) mentions SK, it doesn't take into account letting the Mafia get 2 free shots at hitting our town roles.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 02, 2012, 06:02:44 pm
Dsell,, your arguments now are: let's lynch him, and let you die, and then watch two more town go day 2. It's all ok.

No no no no no. Are you willfully misunderstanding me? I specifically said that is the WORST case scenario. I believe Robz is mafia. His own rebuttals convince of that more and more, while your urges that I reconsider are frankly not helping much.

But hear this, Galzria: You are defending Robz SO strongly it actually appears that that would be too transparent if you were both mafia. So for now I will assume you are town. (If you were mafia and Robz was town I assume you would have no problem lynching him). Ok, so for now you're town. Please look over what I have said and what Voltgloss has said against Robz. I am not so sure that you have such a good feel for him that you would be able to say absolutely that he is innocent. If he wants to play well as mafia, part of that would be to convince you, his former partner, that he is town. Try to set aside your preconceptions and look at how he's acted in THIS game. How does it look? WHY does it look so very town to you? Just be thinking about this.

And quit trying to whip things into a frenzy. We don't want people to feel panicked and vote because of that. We want people to look at arguments logically and make a decision based on that.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 02, 2012, 06:08:05 pm
But hear this, Galzria: You are defending Robz SO strongly it actually appears that that would be too transparent if you were both mafia. So for now I will assume you are town. (If you were mafia and Robz was town I assume you would have no problem lynching him). Ok, so for now you're town. Please look over what I have said and what Voltgloss has said against Robz. I am not so sure that you have such a good feel for him that you would be able to say absolutely that he is innocent. If he wants to play well as mafia, part of that would be to convince you, his former partner, that he is town. Try to set aside your preconceptions and look at how he's acted in THIS game. How does it look? WHY does it look so very town to you? Just be thinking about this.

I think you are under-thinking things. The mafia could be using--wait for it--complicated strategies where they take the preconceived notions about what mafia would do and use them to their advantage.

"You are defending Robz SO strongly it actually appears that that would be too transparent if you were both mafia. So for now I will assume you are town."

Don't you see how he might expect you to think that, and do it anyway?

(Note, I'm not arguing Galzria is mafia--just an example of how your thinking about what the mafia would and wouldnt do is too simple.)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 02, 2012, 06:14:09 pm
But hear this, Galzria: You are defending Robz SO strongly it actually appears that that would be too transparent if you were both mafia. So for now I will assume you are town. (If you were mafia and Robz was town I assume you would have no problem lynching him). Ok, so for now you're town. Please look over what I have said and what Voltgloss has said against Robz. I am not so sure that you have such a good feel for him that you would be able to say absolutely that he is innocent. If he wants to play well as mafia, part of that would be to convince you, his former partner, that he is town. Try to set aside your preconceptions and look at how he's acted in THIS game. How does it look? WHY does it look so very town to you? Just be thinking about this.

I think you are under-thinking things. The mafia could be using--wait for it--complicated strategies where they take the preconceived notions about what mafia would do and use them to their advantage.

"You are defending Robz SO strongly it actually appears that that would be too transparent if you were both mafia. So for now I will assume you are town."

Don't you see how he might expect you to think that, and do it anyway?

(Note, I'm not arguing Galzria is mafia--just an example of how your thinking about what the mafia would and wouldnt do is too simple.)

I'm not clearing him. I'm saying that FOR NOW I will assume he is town so I will talk to him as a town. He has no votes anyway so it's not like he's on the chopping block. I'm not worried RIGHT NOW about figuring out who the whole mafia team is, I'm trying to lynch mafia and work from there. I've said before that I have my suspicions of Galzria. His seeming refusal to budge does not make me less suspicious. But I wanted to talk to him for a minute as a townie, with no suspicion in my voice. We'll see how he reacts.

But don't assume that I'm stupid. K?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 06:15:03 pm
The logical arguments are for Jotheonah, as I laid out. Robz has in fact NOT acted like a Mafia would act this game because he has in fact NOT acted like the Mafia in EVERY OTHER GAME. Are you willfully misunderstanding me?

Your scenario isn't the worst case, it is the likeliest case. Except for one thing. I WON'T die at night. Why prove my point for me? No, they'll let me live, use that to prove I'm wrong, and then turn the conversation elsewhere.

It seems like the only person being willfully blind is you. You're refusing to think anything through, and trying to get people to calmly vote Robz. As I know this is a mistake, I am doing what I can to prevent it. 5 votes is at a very dangerous point. We are about to go into tumble that helps the Mafia FAR more than town.

I don't know what your vendetta against R is, but if the vote goes through, good job hitting town.

As far as Voltgloss goes, a town Voltgloss would not ignore anything. His points are very well made, and I would never, ever expect less from him. You're to busy using what he did say to pound your point that you are again being blind to what he didn't say, and I've already covered that.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 02, 2012, 06:26:42 pm

2) The biggest lesson for me is "O is a terrible player"


I'll just repeat my Mafia I voting record:

Townie over Town Cop
Mafia Rolecop over Town Cop
Mafia (universal tho)

I also sparked tons of contributions to this thread, whereas you've been nearly entirely silent.

Have you even played much mafia before? It'd be funny if you made such a claim while being relatively inexperienced.

Plus you vote for robz without a real reason to.


Unvote
Vote:Eevee

@J
Though you're being pathetically suspicious there-> claiming 2 people voting on one person is "collusion" when three isn't, demanding explanations that were given alongside the vote anyways.

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 02, 2012, 06:30:38 pm
Your scenario isn't the worst case, it is the likeliest case. Except for one thing. I WON'T die at night. Why prove my point for me? No, they'll let me live, use that to prove I'm wrong, and then turn the conversation elsewhere.

It seems like the only person being willfully blind is you. You're refusing to think anything through, and trying to get people to calmly vote Robz. As I know this is a mistake, I am doing what I can to prevent it. 5 votes is at a very dangerous point. We are about to go into tumble that helps the Mafia FAR more than town.

I don't know what your vendetta against R is, but if the vote goes through, good job hitting town.

My scenario didn't hinge on you being killed night one. If you are still around, your case not only becomes stronger but you are still there to argue it! Personally, I would be much more receptive to your way of thinking if things go that way. Right now, my strongest conviction is that Robz is mafia. If I see otherwise, I will have to take another stance.

But you sure seem very confident that Robz is town for someone who supposedly only knows his own role.

So if you are town, you really can't know that Robz is town too (ok I guess outside shot that you two are masons...fwiw I will be awfully suspicious if you claim that now). If Robz is town and you are mafia you probably wouldn't mind hopping on Robz. I dismissed a possible Robz-Galzria connection earlier because you are defending him so fiercely. Suppose you two ARE outplaying me though and this is a double-bluff. Well, Galz can't ignore the fact that Robz is near being lynched. He probably can't hop on the bandwagon and vote fellow mafia off in the first round. But since he can't do that, he has to try to defend Robz, right? Otherwise he has no good excuse for being unwilling to come to a consensus (which he looks so unwilling to do).

I'm NOT saying that Galzria is mafia. I'm doing a thought experiment because Galz and Robz are so kindly prodding me to think a little deeper about the game. I have to go now for a while. Back with more thoughts later.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 02, 2012, 06:33:02 pm
Your scenario isn't the worst case, it is the likeliest case. Except for one thing. I WON'T die at night. Why prove my point for me? No, they'll let me live, use that to prove I'm wrong, and then turn the conversation elsewhere.

It seems like the only person being willfully blind is you. You're refusing to think anything through, and trying to get people to calmly vote Robz. As I know this is a mistake, I am doing what I can to prevent it. 5 votes is at a very dangerous point. We are about to go into tumble that helps the Mafia FAR more than town.

I don't know what your vendetta against R is, but if the vote goes through, good job hitting town.

My scenario didn't hinge on you being killed night one. If you are still around, your case not only becomes stronger but you are still there to argue it! Personally, I would be much more receptive to your way of thinking if things go that way. Right now, my strongest conviction is that Robz is mafia. If I see otherwise, I will have to take another stance.

But you sure seem very confident that Robz is town for someone who supposedly only knows his own role.

So if you are town, you really can't know that Robz is town too (ok I guess outside shot that you two are masons...fwiw I will be awfully suspicious if you claim that now). If Robz is town and you are mafia you probably wouldn't mind hopping on Robz. I dismissed a possible Robz-Galzria connection earlier because you are defending him so fiercely. Suppose you two ARE outplaying me though and this is a double-bluff. Well, Galz can't ignore the fact that Robz is near being lynched. He probably can't hop on the bandwagon and vote fellow mafia off in the first round. But since he can't do that, he has to try to defend Robz, right? Otherwise he has no good excuse for being unwilling to come to a consensus (which he looks so unwilling to do).

I'm NOT saying that Galzria is mafia. I'm doing a thought experiment because Galz and Robz are so kindly prodding me to think a little deeper about the game. I have to go now for a while. Back with more thoughts later.

Claiming someone is Mafia day one is unsubstantiated but neccesary. Claim there existed a mafia pair day one... I'm not implicating you at all, don't worry, but the odds just don't support such an unnecessary endeavor.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 06:36:15 pm
I am SO tempted to pull an O, and ask Robz if I can lynch him to teach the town a lesson. Except that it's such a terrible idea.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 02, 2012, 06:59:22 pm
I am SO tempted to pull an O, and ask Robz if I can lynch him to teach the town a lesson. Except that it's such a terrible idea.

Oh, goodness I would understand it. I briefly flirted with pulling a Morgrim (self-lynch). I worry that the best help I can be at this point is to show the town the truth.

I would say with some certainty that 2 of the mafia are among the following people: Dsell, Eevee, Voltgloss, Jo.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on June 02, 2012, 07:01:28 pm
This reminds me of a Possession deck. One person plays the Possessions, one person trashes his deck with VP.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on June 02, 2012, 07:03:34 pm
With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Robz888 (5) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee, Voltgloss, jotheonah
jotheonah (3) - Galzria, yuma, michaeljb,
Eevee (2) - O, Robz

Not Voting (3) - def, Morgrim7, eHalcyon

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 02, 2012, 07:05:17 pm
Claiming someone is Mafia day one is unsubstantiated but neccesary. Claim there existed a mafia pair day one... I'm not implicating you at all, don't worry, but the odds just don't support such an unnecessary endeavor.

Hey I'm back for a quick second. I didn't claim a mafia pair. I specifically said I was not claiming Galz was mafia. Simply a thought experiment.

Why are Galz and Robz now flirting with tactics they denounced so strongly before? Just...don't.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 07:09:21 pm
Dsell, why do you care if Robz is Mafia?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 02, 2012, 07:10:02 pm
Claiming someone is Mafia day one is unsubstantiated but neccesary. Claim there existed a mafia pair day one... I'm not implicating you at all, don't worry, but the odds just don't support such an unnecessary endeavor.

Hey I'm back for a quick second. I didn't claim a mafia pair. I specifically said I was not claiming Galz was mafia. Simply a thought experiment.

Why are Galz and Robz now flirting with tactics they denounced so strongly before? Just...don't.

Because its really really fun to self hammer if you're the one doing it.  ;D
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 07:10:30 pm
That is, why do you care if I lynch him or he lychees himself?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 02, 2012, 07:16:10 pm
I'm pretty sure Robz isn't mafia. I'm not too sure about J but he's more likely than R if it comes down to that.

I have my suspicions but will keep mum as it seems unlikely that it will amount to anything
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 07:17:51 pm
Truthfully, it doesn't make sense for me to do it. But for Robz it does. If there is one Mafia who isn't voting Robz, they never have to. Either town will lynch him themselves and Mafia get a fresh target day 2, or nobody votes him, and the Mafia get a free night kill.

So Robz can hammer himself to protect a townie from making a target of themselves.

Not that I think he should. But it wouldn't be terrible.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 02, 2012, 07:19:08 pm
Truthfully, it doesn't make sense for me to do it. But for Robz it does. If there is one Mafia who isn't voting Robz, they never have to. Either town will lynch him themselves and Mafia get a fresh target day 2, or nobody votes him, and the Mafia get a free night kill.

So Robz can hammer himself to protect a townie from making a target of themselves.

Not that I think he should. But it wouldn't be terrible.

Sounds awfully like my discredited logic
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 07:22:07 pm
Shush O. ;)

Sometimes things don't make sense until you're presented with the situation. I bow to your lordly knowledge. I was wrong. It isn't a good play, but it's not terrible.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on June 02, 2012, 08:37:35 pm
Galzria, how does this fit into your theory?

Vote: jotheonah

Reasoning later when I have time to provide.  Short version:  I floated an experiment, and it had an interesting result.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 08:43:23 pm
Fits my first half, but shocks my second. If there's truth or confusion behind your action, I don't know. But I stand behind my belief that J is Mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 09:00:22 pm
I'll wait for your post Volt, but I still don't know what to think about you in this game. I never built a case against you, or indeed said much about you because of that. But I feel really strongly Robz is town. And his vote totals were getting uncomfortably high. Add in your very NON Volt like thing to do of not analyzing every little thing before posting, and I grew quite suspicious.

You could still be either, but my day 1 case is for Jotheonah. I stand by it.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 02, 2012, 09:06:32 pm
That is, why do you care if I lynch him or he lychees himself?

I think it sets a bad precedent. Galz, if you want to vote for him, fine, but I think votes right now should be based on good reasoning. In crunch time, votes should be meant. Anything else seems to only hurt the town.

@Voltgloss, I'm definitely interested in hearing about your experiment.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on June 02, 2012, 09:09:57 pm
With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Robz888 (4) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee, jotheonah
jotheonah (4) - Galzria, yuma, michaeljb, Voltgloss
Eevee (2) - O, Robz

Not Voting (3) - def, Morgrim7, eHalcyon

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 09:10:49 pm
That is, why do you care if I lynch him or he lychees himself?

I think it sets a bad precedent. Galz, if you want to vote for him, fine, but I think votes right now should be based on good reasoning. In crunch time, votes should be meant. Anything else seems to only hurt the town.

@Voltgloss, I'm definitely interested in hearing about your experiment.

Read my next post. I wouldn't cast the vote. But if you're so sure he is Mafia you should have no problem with him self-lynching.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on June 02, 2012, 09:13:26 pm
If there's one thing Mafia II taught me ("what did we learn, Palmer?"), it's that putting ALL your cards on the table gives the Mafia an inside peek into your head.  Galz and Robz took full advantage of that, and I'm trying to learn from my mistakes.

Quote
Add in your very NON Volt like thing to do of not analyzing every little thing before posting, and I grew quite suspicious.

Just because I didn't post about everything doesn't mean I didn't analyze everything.  The problem is that analysis left me with a strong suspicion of jotheonah AND a strong suspicion of Robz.  That suspicion was slightly higher for Robz - I stand by everything in my post, and am interested to hear Robz's factual rebuttal when it comes - but is high for jotheonah too.  So what do I do?  Is there anything I could do to possibly test one of those suspicions?

Well, if I voted for Robz, he'd be at 4 out of 7.  That's on the cusp of bandwagoning, but not likely to occur assuming at least SOME of the Mafia have voted.  (And I'm guessing, as about 2/3 of us have voted, then about 2/3 of the Mafia have likely voted as well.)  So - what if I lay out my reasons for voting for Robz (solid reasons), vote, and just leave it at that?  Who will take the bait of pushing the vote up into real bandwagon territory?

Interestingly, the answer to that question was "jotheonah."

So there you go.  Apologies for not being 100% up front crystal clear naive like I was in Mafia II.  Burned me once.  Hoping not a second time.

(Dsell:  I still think your arguments are sound for all the reasons I've stated.  The thing is, some - not all; but some - of what Galzria has identified re: jotheonah is resonating with me too.  When I have time next I'll post at further length on that.  But we now have more information;  and that information now makes jotheonah MORE suspicious to me than Robz.)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 09:19:11 pm
That's fair Volt. Like I said, it read, well, apparently just like you wanted it to.

But you'll forgive me if I can't base my reads off you based on what's in your head and not in a post. I could only judge - and react - on what you've done, not what you plan to do.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on June 02, 2012, 09:25:06 pm
So, def's been MIA for more than 48 hours now, how does this prod request thing work?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 02, 2012, 09:26:26 pm

Just because I didn't post about everything doesn't mean I didn't analyze everything.  The problem is that analysis left me with a strong suspicion of jotheonah AND a strong suspicion of Robz.  That suspicion was slightly higher for Robz - I stand by everything in my post, and am interested to hear Robz's factual rebuttal when it comes - but is high for jotheonah too.  So what do I do?

It's day one, bro. Still little information. Remember?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on June 02, 2012, 09:27:54 pm

Just because I didn't post about everything doesn't mean I didn't analyze everything.  The problem is that analysis left me with a strong suspicion of jotheonah AND a strong suspicion of Robz.  That suspicion was slightly higher for Robz - I stand by everything in my post, and am interested to hear Robz's factual rebuttal when it comes - but is high for jotheonah too.  So what do I do?

It's day one, bro. Still little information. Remember?

Doesn't mean I can't try to get information where I can!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 02, 2012, 09:34:03 pm
This is really interesting. And rereading his vote for Robz, the reasons he gives are pretty cursory (though...I guess there wasn't that much more to say at that point). Then he disappeared. I feel quite good about my vote for Robz but I do think it's important to settle on someone, so I may change my vote at some point. I would like to give him a chance to defend himself and I may not be able check this for several more hours (RL gaming).

So I'll leave it at that until later tonight I guess. I'd really, really love to hear from Morgrim, def, and eHalcyon too.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 02, 2012, 09:34:47 pm
Oops, when I say "his," I'm referring to Jotheonah. I was basically responding to Voltgloss' longer post.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on June 02, 2012, 09:52:23 pm
Ok, I am paranoid worried that I will not be able to vote, (unless I can vote before church tomorrow) so I am going to vote now.
Vote: jotheonah mainly for the same reasons as everyone else. What more can I say that has not been over-analyzed?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on June 02, 2012, 10:59:33 pm
With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Robz888 (4) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee, jotheonah
jotheonah (5) - Galzria, yuma, michaeljb, Voltgloss, Morgrim7
Eevee (2) - O, Robz

Not Voting (2) - def, eHalcyon

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT

michaeljb: I have sent a ping to def
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on June 02, 2012, 11:30:33 pm
Hmm, while the case Galzria is presenting against joh feels quite compelling, I'm kind of hesitant to cast the "penultimate" vote given I still think Robz is more mafia-y. That being said, I'd rather see johtheonah lynched than nolynch, we have something like 24h left so if joh is the only "realistic" possibility, I guess I'd be content with him as well (yeah, him rather than me at least for obvious reasons).

As a somewhat unrelated note: I find def's silence pretty damn suspicious at this point. Feels like he's just avoiding any attention, and town players tend to try help town at least some. We obviously have more pressing matters to discuss today but just putting that out there in case I die at night (seems unlikely but what do i know) or something.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 02, 2012, 11:35:59 pm
A bit off topic, but I wanted to respond to Robz's inquiry much earlier (I still can't believe how much more gets said by adding just 4 people. Day 1 looks prepped to exceed both other Mafia games length on just the first day!):

I was born in Howell, Michigan. Grew up in the Lansing/Brighton area. Lived for some years in Aurora, IL (way cool), and now reside in Sunnyvale, CA. I'm 27, and studied Political Science, with an emphasis on Constitutional Law, and Film/Television cinematography with an emphasis in Journalism.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on June 02, 2012, 11:41:17 pm
Oh right, I'm a 21 year old male, I live in Helsinki (Finland, Europe if you really dont know your geography) and play poker for a living. It was amusing to have you puzzled with the avatar and everything but the jig is up. :)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 12:09:38 am
If there's one thing Mafia II taught me ("what did we learn, Palmer?"), it's that putting ALL your cards on the table gives the Mafia an inside peek into your head.  Galz and Robz took full advantage of that, and I'm trying to learn from my mistakes.

Quote
Add in your very NON Volt like thing to do of not analyzing every little thing before posting, and I grew quite suspicious.

Just because I didn't post about everything doesn't mean I didn't analyze everything.  The problem is that analysis left me with a strong suspicion of jotheonah AND a strong suspicion of Robz.  That suspicion was slightly higher for Robz - I stand by everything in my post, and am interested to hear Robz's factual rebuttal when it comes - but is high for jotheonah too.  So what do I do?  Is there anything I could do to possibly test one of those suspicions?

Well, if I voted for Robz, he'd be at 4 out of 7.  That's on the cusp of bandwagoning, but not likely to occur assuming at least SOME of the Mafia have voted.  (And I'm guessing, as about 2/3 of us have voted, then about 2/3 of the Mafia have likely voted as well.)  So - what if I lay out my reasons for voting for Robz (solid reasons), vote, and just leave it at that?  Who will take the bait of pushing the vote up into real bandwagon territory?

Interestingly, the answer to that question was "jotheonah."

So there you go.  Apologies for not being 100% up front crystal clear naive like I was in Mafia II.  Burned me once.  Hoping not a second time.

(Dsell:  I still think your arguments are sound for all the reasons I've stated.  The thing is, some - not all; but some - of what Galzria has identified re: jotheonah is resonating with me too.  When I have time next I'll post at further length on that.  But we now have more information;  and that information now makes jotheonah MORE suspicious to me than Robz.)

Does no one else see that this doesn't make any sense?

First Volt says "I find Robz suspicious for the reasons Dsell laid out"

But, he says, new information! Jtotheonah voted for Robz. That makes him more supicious, therefore he must be mafia.

No! Volt, you also voted for Robz. You're saying that my doing EXACTLY WHAT YOU JUST DID is the extra information you need to know I'm mafia.

I voted for Robz because we're close to the deadline and need a lynch. You know, the same reason you're all suddenly changing your votes to me.  So tell me why that reads more scum than town? Your confirmation bias is making you see it that way, but if you look at the facts, all I did with that vote was exactly what the rest of you are doing with your votes. This is crazy. Robz is still your top suspect. The case against me is still (1) VERY FLIMSY and (2) led, to a suspicious degree, by a single player. Don't get taken in.

Consider that Galz and Robz were both convinced Volt was mafia, and now that he's changed his vote it's very unlikely we both are. So that shows about how much their convictions are worth.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 12:15:46 am
About worth as much add we're given. In your case, more than enough. In Volts case, half the story (at first).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 12:21:19 am
Sorry, reading that, it was a little more crude than I intended. My whole thought process on Volt was that he HADN'T acted like Volt. And in a very suspicious way. My thoughts on you, I don't believe are flimsy at all (obviously). And Volt's responses have had a lot more credibility than yours. I'm more inclined to believe his actions for his stated reasons.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 12:22:53 am
*Sigh*

Ok, I was hoping it wouldn't come to this. And you probably won't believe me. But I'm not JUST town and it would be a very big mistake to lynch me Day 1. I will do a full claim if the town thinks it's best.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 12:26:30 am
I'll leave that to others, but I'll point out first that it's not surprising. People thought Robz would as Mafia, and sure enough, when the frying pan got hot... Nothing. 5 votes YOUR way however...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 12:28:58 am
Galzria, will you at least grant me that if I am what I say I am, a power townie, it's the right play for me to claim right now?  I will also point out that, if you are still keeping your mind at all open, it should make you see your "protests too much" case against me in a different light.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 12:36:40 am
Ok, well I need to go to bed. I'll be on tomorrow morning and if people want me to full claim I'll do it in the morning. In any event, please afford me the courtesy of staying Vote #7 and allowing me my last words.

Or, alternately, just unvote and don't make this horrible town mistake.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 12:41:01 am
Damnit J, you were not going to be lynched. At least, not if I could sway it against you (as I did in M1)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 12:42:13 am
Hey,  I will always own up to my mistakes. I just don't believe I've made one at this time.

I hope there is a day in the future where we can be Mafia together, instead of against each other/not known. I enjoy having you in the game... Just not enough to not kill you when you've raised my suspicions.

Mason teammates would be cool too.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 12:44:21 am
You may just have to settle for us having been town together. For one day.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on June 03, 2012, 01:21:25 am
I will UNVOTE for the sole purpose of letting jotheonah have his say in the morning without having to worry about being lynched in his (RL) sleep. 

I also still would like to see Robz's rebuttal to the points I raised.  I understand that, with his timeschedule, that probably won't be coming until the next few hours (when I'll be asleep too).  So, a lot to read in the morning.

Once I've seen what Robz and jotheonah have to say, I will again vote.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 01:24:03 am
I hate hate hate that this is going to the last minute. O, I want to hear more!! You say things like "you were not going to be lynched," so say whatever you were going to say anyway! I want to know where your suspicions are at, especially because your vote for Eevee before looked reactionary and it doesn't look like it will be a factor now anyway.

I still may end up voting for jotheonah but I want to at least respect that he could be a power role and not put him in a hammer position. Also, I'm STILL more suspicious of Robz. Seriously, his rebuttal to Volt's arguments made me MORE suspicious of him. Volt has changed his tune and it looks like he has his reasons, and that's great. But because of the supposed roleclaim (why would you string us along till morning, jo? We are in a hurry and it just looks like you are wasting a bit of time) and because my suspicions of Robz are as strong as ever, I'm still keeping my vote on him.

I think I'll be up for a couple more hours...I'm on Pacific time and will try to check in the morning again, then of course in the afternoon assuming there hasn't been a lynch yet.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 01:32:38 am
Well, I just find it pretty likely that Robz and J are both likely NOT mafia. Who I do suspect I'd rather not say, as I can't really put my reasons for suspicion into words ATM...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on June 03, 2012, 01:38:16 am
I should add that, when I ask for a rebuttal from Robz to the points I raised, I do recall he gave a rebuttal to a couple of points.  (Not all of them.)  Specifically, citing the "weaseling out" that Dsell is supposed to have done (does anyone else agree with Robz that those posts of Dsell's are as suspicious as he sees them?) and apologizing for putting his own words in Eevee's mouth. 

The "rebuttal" I'm waiting for is what's alluded to here:

Can you see me doing it because the players who are attacking you are making a convincing argument whereas you are not? Cause that's what's happening...

I hate to leave it like this, I really do, but I have a ticket for a Jonathan Coulton concert and I gotta head out. Back on much later tonight.

Their argument is terrible. Luckily, it will be disproved quite soon.

I assume something further is coming to disprove the arguments against Robz.  That's what I'm hoping to see in the morning.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on June 03, 2012, 01:41:26 am
Grah, forgot something.

Robz, you said that you've been playing "sloppy" if you were Mafia, and asked me if you play sloppy.  The implication, of course, being that because you're playing sloppy, you can't be Mafia.

The problem is that you yourself said you change the way you play with every game. 

You just got done playing a game as Mafia where you were far from sloppy.  Now, you're in a new game.  You're supposedly being "sloppy."  But you change the way you play every game.  So how does that acquit you?  If you were really Mafia again in this game, I think the last thing you would do is play just like you played in M-II.

I'm not saying "you must be Mafia because you're playing differently than M-II."  I'm saying that I don't find comparing your behavior in this game to your behavior in M-II is really all that compelling one way or another.  (I know this is a centerpiece of Dsell's argument.  You'll notice I didn't cite it.  That's because I don't find it compelling.)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 01:47:49 am
Robz needs more defense? We don't even have a case against him.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 01:57:37 am
I'm not saying "you must be Mafia because you're playing differently than M-II."  I'm saying that I don't find comparing your behavior in this game to your behavior in M-II is really all that compelling one way or another.  (I know this is a centerpiece of Dsell's argument.  You'll notice I didn't cite it.  That's because I don't find it compelling.)

Maybe I overstated my point? Or didn't come across well? I didn't even follow all of Mafia II, just early on and the very end. And while I saw some definite similarities there, there were of course differences too. Robz stated that he plays differently every time, Galz pointed out a key difference, and of course Galz has said over and over that Robz' playstyle seems different. Ok, great. Maybe it was different on the whole. But I had the same feeling at the beginning of both games that he was mafia. At the start of this game, before Mafia II was over, I didn't even realize yet that I had been right about him all along. So I didn't make much of that small suspicion. But it turns out I was right in Mafia II and I got that exact same feeling from him at the beginning of day one here. Still! That was never the "centerpiece" of my argument, just the thing that first made me want to hear more from him and I then later used it as some supporting evidence.

O, are you going to get around to doing anything or are you content to twiddle your thumbs and make comments from the sidelines?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 02:00:54 am
But I had the same feeling at the beginning of both games that he was mafia. At the start of this game, before Mafia II was over, I didn't even realize yet that I had been right about him all along.

Sorry, this is a misstatement. I didn't have a feeling at the beginning of THIS game that he was mafia. I wasn't ready to make any assumptions yet. But I got the same feeling as in Mafia II, where he eventually turned up as mafia. Mind you these "feelings" aren't based on nothing, they are based mostly on how radically different he was in Mafia II and III from Mafia I, but here we are getting into more game comparison and dream-within-a-dream stuff, so I just won't go there.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 02:08:13 am
Twiddling my thumbs on the sidelines? I'd respond to that inane post if I knew what the hell you were saying in the first place.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 02:16:40 am
Twiddling my thumbs on the sidelines? I'd respond to that inane post if I knew what the hell you were saying in the first place.

You haven't made a substantive post for a looooong time. You've been doing just what I said...making little comments on others' posts that have been mostly immaterial. You keep saying you have suspicions, you've said they won't amount to much...does that mean you are going to do nothing the rest of the day? Are you waiting to be convinced? Are you just gonna ride this one out and see what new info day 2 brings us?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 02:19:49 am
Dsell, O has become more and more intentionally obtuse. I've been searching for different roles that might benefit a no-lynch situation, but I can't find anything.

He says there is no case against Robz, but also that he would have done everything he could to make sure J didn't get lynched. Those are the only two likely to get lynched by tomorrow. But if he felt there was someone else TO make a case for, you would think he would do so. Maybe he's oblivious to the fact that the deadline is tomorrow, but I doubt it.

He says he doesn't know what else he can do to get us to vote for him (after he drained to 0 posts). Could he be a Jester? I don't buy it.

I have no clue what his angle is (well, I do. Obtuse.), but I've got other people to watch right now. If he is going to intentionally be confusing, and not try to help, he's not worth my time right now. Unless I can find a role that he could be to explain his actions (and often lack thereof).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 02:22:04 am
I made just about every other post for a large part of this thread, mostly constructive. I'm sorry I can't keep up that posting rate, which still far exceeds yours  ;).

My suspicions ATM have little backing outside of small tells I've picked up, so 1) they're really not very accurate, which is what I've said about ALL D1 suspicions and 2) It would appear like a random, baseless accusation to you all.

I find it ridiculous that you think I've just stood on the sidelines in this thread, I think you're just trying to provoke me. Good try.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 02:23:59 am

I have no clue what his angle is (well, I do. Obtuse.), but I've got other people to watch right now. If he is going to intentionally be confusing, and not try to help, he's not worth my time right now. Unless I can find a role that he could be to explain his actions (and often lack thereof).

When *would* I be worth your time if my only goal was to be intentionally confusing? I'm trying to help by steering the townies away from both Robz and J, both of which are probably not mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 02:26:20 am
He could be a lyncher:

 http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Lyncher

Perhaps his lynchee isn't a suspect right now, and the more people left in the game, the less likely he is to be night killed. By not making a case against his target, he can wait until a more opportune time to lynch them for the win.

But that's an outside chance at best.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 03, 2012, 02:28:49 am
Checking in after mage knight failed... that game is LONG with 4 players.

Galzria's defense of RobZ is making me nervous, I know that some of us are n00bs, but frankly the "We're the experienced players and we're so good - so unvote before you have both of us killed" is slightly insulting.

Jotheonah IS Mafia. Volt PROBABLY is Mafia. Robz IS town.

I don't see how any truly town player could make such a confident statement - for sure we don't have anything firm to support an explicit statement of fact.

That said, If Rob + Galzria are mafia - coming to Robz's defense so early in the game seems like a risky play, especially if Robz is confirmed to be Mafia (either by lynching - or power role overnight investigation)

Doesn't seem like overnight lynching is a risk, since Rob seems to have survived the 5 vote - so I"m going to let my vote stand and head off to sleep.  Interesting reading - and I look forward to more in depth perusal tomorrow in advance of the deadline.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 02:30:04 am
You're being helpful by trying to get two people you think are likely not Mafia killed.

That would be great and all, if you were also making a case for who IS Mafia, instead of being content to sit back and watch the deadline roll by tomorrow.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 02:31:27 am
Sorry, the above was directed at O.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 02:31:47 am
To clarify I am indeed waiting for pops to review. And I will say there is no insane cop nor suicide bomber in my proposed set ups. I didn't feel like making people hate the mod :P

No weird, insane roles in this game.

Thanks guise.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 02:31:59 am
I find it ridiculous that you think I've just stood on the sidelines in this thread, I think you're just trying to provoke me. Good try.

You were more active earlier on, and you still have had a lot of posts, but it's been little things that have not added up to much. I'm not trying to provoke you, except to action. If you're just not gonna go there, that's your prerogative, but it's not helpful to the town.

But yeah, you're right Galz, I'm not gonna try to get O to do anything if it's just a waste of my time.

+1 for obtuse. ;D
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 02:36:52 am
Captain_Frisk nicely put into words some of what I was thinking. Thanks.

Ugh. I guess this is the frustrating part of the game. We are just playing a waiting game to perhaps hear more defenses, to hear jotheonah's roleclaim (not happy about making us wait), and for others who have not made a vote or changed their vote in a while to catch up and weigh in. Is def in the house? Man it's been forever since he posted anything.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 02:40:34 am
Robz->Low suspicion due to bandwagon
Galzria-> medium suspicion, buts makes stupidly authoritative statements (see Captain Frisk's above post)
O-No suspicion
def-Unknown
Dsell-Medium suspicion, tends to bandwagon
Morgrim7-medium suspicion
Eevee-high suspicion, bandwagons, makes incoherent arguments
michaeljb-Unknown
jotheonah-was medium suspicion, bandwagon made me less supicious
Voltgloss-pretty high suspicion due to inane arguments
eHalcyon-Medium suspicion
Yuma-Unknown

Captain_Frisk... Either he's a damn insightful townie with tendencies to agree with me and clear, coolheaded play or he's been trying to recruit me as an ally. Currently the most suspicious person to me who has flown under the radar.

is Captain Frisk Mafia? I'm certainly not as cocksure as Galzria to say he's "definitely" mafia. It's less then a 50% chance IMO that he is. But if he IS mafia... I'm scared for the town. Because I can't see anyone crazy enough but me to really be suspicious of him.



Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 02:42:53 am

Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
« on: May 23, 2012, 04:12:04 pm »
Quote+2   
THERE WILL BE A DISCUSSION THREAD FOR THIS MAFIA. IF YOU DO NOT WANT OTHERS DISCUSSING THIS MAFIA DO NOT PARTICIPATE. YOU MAY NOT POST IN THIS THREAD WHEN DEAD WE ASK THAT YOU DO NOT READ THIS THREAD WHILE ALIVE THOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE ENFORCED

ALIVE
Robz
Galzria
O
def
Dsell
Morgrim7
Eevee
michaeljb
Captain_Frisk
jotheonah
Voltgloss
eHalcyon
yuma


People who I'd be glad to have on the Townie side:
Captain Frisk
Robz
michaeljb
Morgrim
Michaeljb

People who I think are close to actively harmful if they were town:
Dsell
Galzria
The 3 townies from the end of Mafia II.


The rest I don't have too much of an opinion on
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 02:55:38 am
C.F., with all due respect, can you please point me to where I indicated "Robz and I are so good, we're better people to have around"?

I have drawn from my experience and knowledge of being Mafia once, yes. But in no way to belittle the thoughts, feelings, and arguments of others here. I have constantly encouraged out newer players to speak up, and not be intimidated to join in.

I did ask to unvote, because if I'm right, and onto the mafia's trail, then there is a good chance that a Robz lynch results in my death at night.

I am personally rather offended that you would accuse me of belittling anybody. I felt a member of the town was in danger, and I reacted to try and save them. I would do it for anybody here that I felt was in the same situation. I absolutely will not apologize for suggesting that my experiences help me in my determinations.

I was Mafia in M-II. And I will use that in any way I can to find the mafia here. If you don't like my case or argument, that's your prerogative. But I never suggested that I am more valuable, or Robz is, or anybody is, based on experience.

There is only one reason I'm more valuable alive to you than dead: I'm town. I believe Robz is as well. That's 2 votes that help town win. That's 1/5th of our number right now, and I find that damn well worth protecting.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 02:56:17 am
O, thanks for posting. Really. I don't really agree with a lot of your conclusions but huh. Something to think about. Did you accidentally type out Michaeljb twice on the "glad if their townie" column or would you be really really happy if he was town?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 02:57:31 am
oops, yes.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 03, 2012, 03:00:24 am
Okay, I have a couple things to address. First, Jotheonah:

Ok, well I need to go to bed. I'll be on tomorrow morning and if people want me to full claim I'll do it in the morning. In any event, please afford me the courtesy of staying Vote #7 and allowing me my last words.

Or, alternately, just unvote and don't make this horrible town mistake.

Okay, I want you to full claim. I think it's necessary at this point. In fact, I wish you had simply done it then, because this way it gives the appearance that you are taking the time to think up a suitable cover role. I'm not saying I won't believe you--indeed, I probably will believe you--but this looks much worse to me.

Oh, and we really shouldn't kill Jo, unless his claim is ridiculous or he is counterclaimed. But we shouldn't kill me either!

On to Volt:

The "rebuttal" I'm waiting for is what's alluded to here:

Can you see me doing it because the players who are attacking you are making a convincing argument whereas you are not? Cause that's what's happening...

I hate to leave it like this, I really do, but I have a ticket for a Jonathan Coulton concert and I gotta head out. Back on much later tonight.

Their argument is terrible. Luckily, it will be disproved quite soon.

I assume something further is coming to disprove the arguments against Robz.  That's what I'm hoping to see in the morning.

Unfortunately, all I meant by that was this: I assumed I was going to be killed, and that would disprove the "Robz is mafia" argument. Once I die, you will all see that I am town. But since that's not the explanation you wanted, I'll try to defend myself again anyway.

(I like that you post relevant youtube scenes. If I could, the scene that reminds me most of how you ask me for answers happened on the most recent "Game of Thrones" episode. Lady Sansa asks Joffrey if he will be leading the vanguard in the battle. Joffrey looks around nervously and replies that he is not going to consult battle plans with stupid girls. Sansa replies, "Oh, forgive me, I AM stupid. Of course, you will lead the vanguard, how stupid to even ask!" That's you and me in this game, Volt.)

Grah, forgot something.

Robz, you said that you've been playing "sloppy" if you were Mafia, and asked me if you play sloppy.  The implication, of course, being that because you're playing sloppy, you can't be Mafia.

The problem is that you yourself said you change the way you play with every game. 

You just got done playing a game as Mafia where you were far from sloppy.  Now, you're in a new game.  You're supposedly being "sloppy."  But you change the way you play every game.  So how does that acquit you?  If you were really Mafia again in this game, I think the last thing you would do is play just like you played in M-II.

I'm not saying "you must be Mafia because you're playing differently than M-II."  I'm saying that I don't find comparing your behavior in this game to your behavior in M-II is really all that compelling one way or another.  (I know this is a centerpiece of Dsell's argument.  You'll notice I didn't cite it.  That's because I don't find it compelling.)

Okay, I'll try to defend myself again. First about changing how I play--I don't think I revolutionize how I play every game. And we can't totally control our behavior. In Mafia II, I really tried to control every possible impulse to say things. I think a careful obsverer of I and III will note that I've been faster and looser. But whatever, these comparisons don't help so much. Why I am innocent? Because the case made against me is weak.

Dsell indicated that he was suspicious of me early on, before I had said much of anything. He found my lack of posting disturbing. I've explained numerous times why I didn't post so much, but here it is again 1)There were a lot of other games 2)We had new people and I wanted to let them take the reigns. So I ignored Dsell at first, posting and ignoring him. Well, he brought it up again. So I fired back at him a bit, not really satisfying his question, to see what he would do. I didn't dream that this would turn him to campagin against me, nor that it would convince others I was suspicious. I was certainly too convinced of my invincibility in the first round of this game. I was making every effort to needle and gather suspicions, and refusing to discuss myself much. I didn't bother to explain myself, and this has come back to be a problem.

However, I can't help get the feeling that Dsell was after me the whole time, no matter what I say. Yes, I've heard his explanations for how this turned from slight suspicion to near certainty, but it doesn't make sense to me. It wouldn't, I suppose, since I know am a member of the town. He's either a very mislead member of the town, or a member of the mafia.

Look, I'm sure I don't have satisfactory responses to all questions about what I did this round. I intentionally needled Eevee a bit, and that has caused me to grow suspicious of him--he is STILL downplaying his abilities, even after I called him out for it. And he's a poker player! Not a 12-year-old! He's still suspicious to me. And so are you--although you switching your vote just made things more complicated--and so is Dsell and so is Jo, and... I'm confused this round. I'll admit it. If the members of the mafia were actually Galzria, eHalycon, and Def, it actually wouldn't surprise me at all (just a random three there). Moving on:

Galzria's defense of RobZ is making me nervous, I know that some of us are n00bs, but frankly the "We're the experienced players and we're so good - so unvote before you have both of us killed" is slightly insulting.

Jotheonah IS Mafia. Volt PROBABLY is Mafia. Robz IS town.

I don't see how any truly town player could make such a confident statement - for sure we don't have anything firm to support an explicit statement of fact.

To be fair, I agree that Galzria doesn't know the meaning of the word certainty. He is way to confident about what he actually knows. I don't know at all how he is "sure" Jo is a mafia member. Now it looks like Jo might actually be a power townie, so yeah. That said, I agree with a lot of Galzria's analysis. Just not always his confidence.

So, if Jo is a power townie... anybody want to hop on the Eevee bandwagon? It's not too late... all are welcome...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 03:04:35 am
So we're settling on an Eevee bandwagon Robz? Because even though my random number generator gets knocked down, as a townie the ideal situation is that you select a person and get everyone to bandwagon on them (that minimizes the mafia influence on the voting)

As I'm relatively confident of your town status, I'd be welcome to share that bandwagon campaign with you  ;D
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 03, 2012, 03:11:33 am
So we're settling on an Eevee bandwagon Robz? Because even though my random number generator gets knocked down, as a townie the ideal situation is that you select a person and get everyone to bandwagon on them (that minimizes the mafia influence on the voting)

As I'm relatively confident of your town status, I'd be welcome to share that bandwagon campaign with you  ;D

Glad to have you aboard! Although I see you are already aboard. I'm not sure you understand how this works. If you could kindly unvote for Eevee, please. I demand it. And then revote, for Eevee. And perhaps other will catch on to the idea and join you. All are welcome.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 03:16:51 am
By the way, I use "certain" because I either believe something, or I don't. I don't hedge. Can I be convinced I'm wrong? Sure. I listen, and will agree/disagree as I see fit.

Yes, if I'm willing to change my mind I'm not "certain". But until I change it, I will defend the things I believe, and not sit there going "well, maaaybe". That's just the way I am, and almost certainly not likely to change.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 03:23:16 am
Eevee being a professional poker player does seem a little odd to me. Like I feel like he could be just playing us really hard. Buuuut I'm still not really convinced. I think Robz is making him seem a little more green than he has actually been acting. To me, he seems new, a little overwhelmed, and a fun, lighthearted guy. We can't all be intense. I kinda feel some of the same things I think he is, especially with this deadline looming. I really don't think he is acting like a 12 year old though.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 03, 2012, 03:30:33 am
Me: "Pineapple tastes good."

Dsell: "You know, I see what Robz is saying, but I don't think he's being entirely fair to Pineapple. This is just like what he said about Pineapple in that other game. Remember, when he was mafia? Now he claims to like Pineapple but he was very quiet on the subject initially, and everything he has done has only made me more convinced he doesn't actually like Pineapple."
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 03, 2012, 03:34:51 am
Galzria: "Pineapple is CERTAINLY good." Posts 1,000 more times about Pineapple

Voltgloss: "Robz, could you submit a research paper on your thoughts about Pineapple? I'm waiting. Thank you."
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 03:38:08 am
Well, UNVOTE. Lynch who you like tomorrow. I'll be gone most of the day, so likely won't be around to vote. I stand by J being Mafia, but since he's going to claim, he won't get lynched. No reason to keep my vote there.

See you all (or not, as there is good reason for Mafia to kill me) day 2. But I may change how I play to be more like def. I've got more fun things to do than get worked up over a Mafia game. So I'll give my thoughts here and there, but that's it. I'll vote when you're actually targeting a likely Mafia, otherwise probably not.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 03:43:18 am
Me: "Pineapple tastes good."

Dsell: "You know, I see what Robz is saying, but I don't think he's being entirely fair to Pineapple. This is just like what he said about Pineapple in that other game. Remember, when he was mafia? Now he claims to like Pineapple but he was very quiet on the subject initially, and everything he has done has only made me more convinced he doesn't actually like Pineapple."

I lol'd. ;D Hey man. I'm just a townie over here trying to help out the town. I think you're mafia, and hey that's ok! Not like we chose our own roles. I'm using the pertinent info available to make the best decision I can.

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 03:47:37 am
Personally, I'm surprised I haven't been getting flack for this.

I'm pretty interested in this, I've been enjoying following the other mafia games (well, just one of them now) though I've never played forum mafia before. The thing is, I spend a lot of time on the forum and it's been tough at times for me to even keep up with all the reading during really active times. So I can only imagine trying to keep up with other mafia games, my own mafia game, trying to formulate responses with lots of analysis, keeping up with, you know, Dominion strategy, and trying to play on isotropic. Oh yeah, and real life.

But I think I'm up for a challenge. :D

And yeah, Robz is insane.

Clearly I had already picked out my target. ::)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on June 03, 2012, 04:09:50 am
With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Robz888 (4) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee, jotheonah
jotheonah (3) - yuma, michaeljb, Morgrim7
Eevee (2) - O, Robz

Not Voting (4) - def, eHalcyon, Voltgloss, Galzria,

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 03, 2012, 04:12:57 am
Back.  Lots of activity today yesterday, wow.

People who I'd be glad to have on the Townie side:
Captain Frisk
Robz
michaeljb
Morgrim
Michaeljb

So, this leaves me a little confused.  I understand Robz and Captain Frisk, for the most part.  But what of the other two?  In your "suspicions" post you list Morgrim as medium suspicion and michaeljb as "unknown".  What makes them valuable as townies, if they are such?

Why is michaeljb in your good graces?  He hasn't been very memorable to me so far (I should go back and re-read some of these pages).  And (no offense meant to him here) Morgrim on there is especially confusing, what with the randomness fiasco early on (though you pulled a similar stunt, so...).  Is it how he managed to escape that bandwagon that impresses you?

I'd really like some reasons on these choices for "good townies".  For those you think would be harmful as townies, I think you explained the reasoning in an earlier post.  Please correct me if I'm wrong:

Dsell -- tendency to bandwagon?
Galzria -- makes statements with certainty when it is unlikely for him to have any certainty in this game (I have a post on this to follow); fairly persuasive in his posts but perhaps doesn't have the best judgement to utilize that influence.
Three townies from Mafia II -- well, they lost in the end.  Do note -- this is really just jotheonah and Voltglass, because Insomniac is the mod here, right?

Note: this is just my interpretation of O's rationale.



I'd also be interested in who you think would be the most dangerous Mafia, but that's probably harder to pinpoint.  Mafia can be dangerous by being very vocal and influencing day actions, but they can also be dangerous if they look innocent and go undetected.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 04:42:27 am
Ok I stayed up extra late waiting for eHalcyon's "to follow" post, but I'm turning in for the night. Back to check in in the morning and then I will participate in the afternoon.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 03, 2012, 04:47:12 am
So, two points of interest from the earlier discussion (sorry for taking longer on this, Dsell).

Galzria's Certainty

Galzria was saying that he's certain Robz is a Townie.  He later says that it's because he doesn't hedge, but even then how can he be certain?  Given how sly he was in Mafia II, I can't imagine that he would exaggerate a day 1 town read on Robz as certainty.

These are the explanations I can come up with right now:

1. Galzria and Robz are both masons (or some similar role).  If this is the case, I don't see a reason why they shouldn't role claim, but I'm a newb. 

2. Galzria is Mafia and Robz is townie.  If Robz gets lynched, Galzria appears to be cleared.  Why would a Mafia member argue so vehemently against the lynching of a townie?  Well, it's a huge bonus if it means that Mafia member will be free of suspicion for the rest of the game.

3. Galzria and Robz are both Mafia.  If Robz doesn't get lynch, that's a win.  If Robz gets lynched, Galzria can argue that as a Mafia member there is no way that he would tie himself so closely to another Mafia member, and -- oops sorry -- that he just made a really bad read on Robz.

4. Galzria has some exotic role like a Cop that can act during the day.  That's a real role, right?




jotheonah's role

j basically says that he has a role and that he may role claim in the morning.  Even announcing that you have a role is unfortunate because it basically paints a big bullseye on your back for the Mafia.  I don't know if actually revealing the role would have any effect other than opening up the possibility of a counterclaim. 

And actually, I think this is a good reason for him to claim a specific role.  Is there any reason why someone with a role should reveal that fact without the actual role?  They're a Mafia target either way.  I can actually think of just ONE reason.  In that (unlikely!) case I think it is better for the town if I keep quiet on this one.

Nonetheless, I can see why j would do it.  He has little choice as he's about to die.  His role claim gives us insight based on how the players react.  Even if he's destined to be killed at night, sparing him from the lynch would give the town a better chance of catching scum.

But anyway, my question here is -- why would j claim a power role without specifying what that role is?  My ideas:

1. If there is a doctor in the game, he could be protected and given at least one night's chance to use his power effectively.  In that case, the Mafia has better chance of success if they pick a different target.  This only works if j's role is unknown.  On the other hand, if he claims Doctor, the Mafia can target him without much worry of being blocked.  Keeping his role secret is thus beneficial by giving the Mafia a more difficult decision to make.

2. I mentioned this above -- he might have a role that is best kept secret... I have one in mind but, since it is best kept secret, I won't reveal it here.

3. As suggested by Robz, this could be a last-ditch effort by a Mafia player.  j doesn't claim an actual role so he can have more time to figure out what is most beneficial to claim.  If the town acquits him without forcing him to claim an actual role, it might persuade an actual doctor or jailkeepr to protect him that night instead of an actual townie.  It might also cause an actual cop to investigate someone else on the assumption that he is town.





Can anyone add to either of these two lists?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 08:23:25 am
I haven't played much mafia, but I thought the standard procedure was to make a soft claim first and only hard claim if asked. I've painted a target on my back either way.

But, if I claim and someone counterclaims, we've both painted targets on our backs

And as you said, certain roles still benefit from anonymity. And it might be that night 2, if I can survive it (hint hint), will provide me with evidence to prove what I say tomorrow.

So, I wanted to give you the option of protecting your power townie without completely exposing him.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 08:32:37 am
Ok, just realized the counterclaim thing doesn't make sense.  It's this blind setup. It's unlikely, but not impossible, that there are two of my role. So a counterclaim could end up with a big town v. town fight and two mafia targets.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 03, 2012, 08:40:34 am
C.F., with all due respect, can you please point me to where I indicated "Robz and I are so good, we're better people to have around"?

Not a problem - and the respect is appreciated!

Basically town, V and J are trying RIGHT NOW to slam the door on Robz, and if successful, you will have NEITHER of us day 2.

This is the quote that sent me over the edge.  You didn't explicitly justify it with a note of being experienced players - but I read this as trying to bully the town into either unvoting for Rob  you're coming to Robz's defense with threatening that you will be night killed if RobZ is lynched.  Naturally - if we do lynch town (which I suppose is the probable event), it is also likely that another town will be night killed - so we will lose 2 towns.  You're implying that the town is worse off if both of you are killed vs. some other pair of 2 towns. 

At this point - I am highly suspicious of you - and thus by extension making me feel better about leaving my vote on RobZ.

Finally - your rage-unvote

Well, UNVOTE. Lynch who you like tomorrow. I'll be gone most of the day, so likely won't be around to vote. I stand by J being Mafia, but since he's going to claim, he won't get lynched. No reason to keep my vote there.

See you all (or not, as there is good reason for Mafia to kill me) day 2. But I may change how I play to be more like def. I've got more fun things to do than get worked up over a Mafia game. So I'll give my thoughts here and there, but that's it. I'll vote when you're actually targeting a likely Mafia, otherwise probably not.

If you believe that J is mafia, WHY ON EARTH would you unvote?  J was up to 4 votes, and unvoting only allows him to possibly unclaim because it is no longer necessary to save his bacon.  If you were shifting your vote to someone else who you believe is Mafia because you think J can't be lynched... then OK.  But with a strong believe that J is mafia, unvoting seems strictly worse - and equivalent to:

Quote from: Cartman
Screw you guys, I'm going home.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyltK6pmJGg
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 08:43:53 am
Part of my post above didn't post, so I'll say it again. Only Robz has asked me to full claim, and given that he could well be mafia, I don't think it's ridiculous to wait for at least one more townie to make the request.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 03, 2012, 08:54:30 am
I haven't played much mafia, but I thought the standard procedure was to make a soft claim first and only hard claim if asked. I've painted a target on my back either way.

But, if I claim and someone counterclaims, we've both painted targets on our backs

And as you said, certain roles still benefit from anonymity. And it might be that night 2, if I can survive it (hint hint), will provide me with evidence to prove what I say tomorrow.

So, I wanted to give you the option of protecting your power townie without completely exposing him.

And here we go Galzria - backing off the role claim because you unvoted.  I'm suspicious of both camps - I was suspicious of jotheonah - to the point of even voting for him earlier in post #332 - although look at who else i was suspicious of then?

If I had to vote, it would be for either jotheonah or Galzria - as I assume any time we start hammering someone, the mafia is going to want to have a mix of guys in... some early, some late - as someone pointed out, it would be pretty bad for the votes to be 5,6,7.  I've already un-voted Morgrim, so that leaves jotheonah and Galzria.

That said, I'm having a tough time buying a Mafia Triangle of RobZ, Galzria + Jotheonah.

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 03, 2012, 08:55:54 am
Part of my post above didn't post, so I'll say it again. Only Robz has asked me to full claim, and given that he could well be mafia, I don't think it's ridiculous to wait for at least one more townie to make the request.

Jotheonah - please do not take my above post as a request to claim.  I was only using it to point out why I don't understand G's behavior.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 09:26:42 am
Insomniac, can we try to kerjigger it so the deadline is not on a Sunday/weekend next time? It seems to be less than ideal.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on June 03, 2012, 09:59:47 am
My head is spinning.  Am I getting this sequence of events right?

- Galzria leads a charge against jotheonah.
- When jotheonah votes for the other then-possible lynch (Robz), Galzria tears into him and the person who most recently voted for that same lynch (me).
- Then I explain my gambit and switch my vote to jotheonah based on his jumping on the Robz train.
- Then jotheonah claims he is going to claim.
- Then Galzria unvotes, backing down from the charge he's been leading for most of the day - BEFORE jotheonah has actually claimed.
- Now jotheonah isn't claiming.

Does anyone else find this troubling?  I don't even know what to do about it at this point.  I mean, I could revote jotheonah, but if he gets lynched and flips town then all of us who voted for him are on the hook for suspicion EXCEPT for the one person who led the charge in the first place!  I really don't know at this point.

O, I'd like to know how you find my arguments "inane."  Saying someone's arguments are inane without explaining why is, well, inane.  If I'm on the wrong track, tell me how, help me to get away from such inane thoughts.

Robz, I appreciate your further response.  As I understand it, you're saying that your giving insufficient responses to Dsell (which is the big thing that aroused my suspicions) is because you were purposefully trying to see what he'd do.  Well, now you know:  if you give him insufficient responses he's going to conclude you are Mafia.  Really, I can't see that as being

I'm going to have to look again at this Eevee thing.  The gist of Robz's suspicion seems to be that Eevee mixes humor, substance, and non-substance in a "mafia middle-ground" way (a concept Robz created), and that Eevee is downplaying his abilities.  The problem I have is that this seems to be suspicion based solely on a person's RL posting style, rather than anything concrete that would point to them being Mafia.  It feels like the Morgrim attack that Robz guided in M-II.  (I'm not saying Robz is Mafia because he's targeting Eevee.  I'm saying Robz's attack on Eevee, if Robz is Town, feels like my attack on Morgrim in M-II.)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on June 03, 2012, 10:01:17 am
Left a sentence dangling in my next-to-last paragraph above.  Fixed below.

"Well, now you know:  if you give him insufficient responses he's going to conclude you are Mafia.  Really, I can't see that as being a cause for suspicion.  Aren't we supposed to be looking for people whose posts are 'off' and accusing them to see what they do?  Your posts were off, you were accused, your (initial) responses were off.  Dsell's just doing his job as a good Townie."
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 10:26:51 am
So you're not going to reply to my question about why YOU jumping on the Robz train is town and MY jumping on the Robz train is scum? Cause I don't follow.

And I daresay my role will be public knowledge by Day 2 at the latest. I think town could obtain an advantage by delaying the reveal until then. But I leave it up to you all.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on June 03, 2012, 10:36:32 am
So you're not going to reply to my question about why YOU jumping on the Robz train is town and MY jumping on the Robz train is scum? Cause I don't follow.

Because moving the train to vote 4 is less dangerous than moving it to vote 5.  Also, I explained in detail my reasons for voting Robz.  You didn't.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 10:48:36 am
In a game with 3 mafia, I think you're greatly overstating the difference between vote 4 and vote 5. And both votes (as well as #6 and #7) are required for the town to lynch someone.

Prior to your vote, I had been called out for an unhelpful vote. I had announced my intention to join an existing bandwagon to be helpful to the town. I had asked clarifying questions to get a better read on the currently existing Eevee bandwagon. After hearing those responses, and after seeing you, a trustworthy townie in my book ATM, agreed with the analysis on Robz, I felt I had sufficient cause for a vote.

Quote
Robz, I think you're grasping at straws.  The mafia don't need to lynch anyone today. They can live with a no-lynch. You're saying they're placing the first 3 votes on you? You are following your established scum pattern of always accusing your accusers. And I'm not buying it.

Unvote

Vote: Robz888

I'm voting precisely because I don't believe all of Robz's accusers to be mafia, and I'm finding their case against him much more compelling then either G's case against me or Robz's case against Eevee.

Yes, I chose not to compose a third essay rehashing the points you and Dsell had already made. Instead, I highlighted a few of my specific tells and articulated that Robz struck me as the best option for a town lynch (i.e. the most likely mafia).  I don't see what's suspicious in this outside the context of you ALREADY being suspicious of me and looking for a reason to confirm it.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 10:59:39 am
Sorry V. Didn't mean to confuse. If it'll make you feel better, VOTE: JOTHEONAH. I only unvoted because, well, you did, and because the case has been made in this game and many others that a claim doesn't get lynched. There didn't seem to be a good reason to keep it there. I still believe my case though.

@C.F.:

I really don't care if people (you, O, anyone else) are suspicious of me. If I'm not having fun (ie. feeling accused of something I would never do, in real life or on a forum), then I will disengage. I will still participate - I won't leave my team without my support, but I'll join in only when I have something to say.

The quote you used was hardly meant as bullying. I understand noone wants to die day/night 1. Well, that extends to me too. I generally WANT to play, and felt (still do) if Robz were lynched, then revealed town, I would be the most likely night target. Since I would rather that not happen, I felt the need to protect Robz.

I hope you can see that it wasn't meant to be insulting.

As for my unvote, my actions were explained above.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on June 03, 2012, 11:06:19 am
Thank you, Galzria.

jotheonah, on top of my previous reasons, the promised roleclaim hasn't materialized.  Instead, you've delayed more (which Robz already flagged as suspicious the first time you delayed).  You've had a chance to give your say, and I simply don't find it a compelling response.

VOTE: jotheonah
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 03, 2012, 11:15:22 am
And I daresay my role will be public knowledge by Day 2 at the latest. I think town could obtain an advantage by delaying the reveal until then. But I leave it up to you all.

I can't imagine a role where this is true, unless you mean that you will make a full claim on day 2.  I mentioned that I could think of a role best kept secret, but if that's the case then there is a decent chance it won't be made known.

The other way your role could be revealed is if you are killed.  However, that could be prevented if we have a doctor or jailkeeper.

Whatever results we see from power roles (e.g. second death = vigilante/serial killer, no deaths = doctor/jailkeeper probably) don't tell us YOUR role because you might just be taking credit for someone else's work.  And besides that, even if you have a power, you might not get to use it if our jailkeeper jails you, or if the mafia has a roleblocker and targets you.

You make a good point that perhaps the town has more than one of a role.  I still find this really unlikely -- Insomniac, is this something you can clarify about the setup?  I find it unlikely that there are multiples.  What roles are there multiples of in standard games?  Mafia of course.  Masons.  Not sure about others.

So are you really implying that your role is best kept secret, but it will be helpful to the town and made known tomorrow?  And are you hoping that the other town role(s), if there are any, will protect you?  Does that only apply if we have a doctor, or would you mind being jailed?  Assuming you are being honest, what kind of action are you hoping for from the town?

I am very tempted to vote for you (and it looks like with Galzria and Voltgloss ve are now at 6?) but I would like to hear your answer to these questions.

To that end I request that any townies refrain from casting the final vote right now.

I won't be back until the afternoon so I hope people wait, though I understand if they don't.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on June 03, 2012, 11:21:55 am
I am very tempted to vote for you (and it looks like with Galzria and Voltgloss ve are now at 6?)

I think we're at 5.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on June 03, 2012, 11:31:39 am
eHalcyon: I will not clarify that as it is a closed setup

Jotheonah: if no one disagrees and there is posts here suggesting people would want it I will make the day 2 deadline 8 days.

All: would you mind having an 8 day, day 2?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 11:38:45 am
Insomniac, I don't mind.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on June 03, 2012, 12:25:40 pm
Thirty minutes.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on June 03, 2012, 12:31:27 pm
Current Vote Counts
Robz888 (4) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee, jotheonah
jotheonah (5) - yuma, michaeljb, Morgrim7, Galzria, Voltgloss
Eevee (2) - O, Robz888

Not Voting (2) - def, eHalcyon

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on June 03, 2012, 12:35:22 pm
Thirty minutes.

You mean over twelve hours.  Deadline is midnight, PDT.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on June 03, 2012, 12:39:25 pm
Thirty minutes.

You mean over twelve hours.  Deadline is midnight, PDT.
Right. Oops! Thought tht said a.m., not p.m. :)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on June 03, 2012, 12:41:37 pm
The time is 9:41am PDT meaning at the time of posting there are 13 hours 18 minutes
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 03, 2012, 01:03:51 pm
Jo: Need that roleclaim, buddy. I know it sucks having to claim round 1, but that's the way the game is played. And I really wish you hadn't delayed like this, because it's going to make it very hard to believe you, with only a little time left.

To Volt:

I'm going to have to look again at this Eevee thing.  The gist of Robz's suspicion seems to be that Eevee mixes humor, substance, and non-substance in a "mafia middle-ground" way (a concept Robz created), and that Eevee is downplaying his abilities.  The problem I have is that this seems to be suspicion based solely on a person's RL posting style, rather than anything concrete that would point to them being Mafia.  It feels like the Morgrim attack that Robz guided in M-II.  (I'm not saying Robz is Mafia because he's targeting Eevee.  I'm saying Robz's attack on Eevee, if Robz is Town, feels like my attack on Morgrim in M-II.)

Sure, but what concrete things really point to anyone being mafia at this point? This round has spread wildly out of control and I don't know what to think. Some I am trying to go back to basics. I think my "mafia middle-ground" is a decent-ish idea for how a new-ish mafia would play the game. And Eevee's constant--constant--downplaying of his own abilities has struck me as weird, because he does it a lot. But there is some serious game play mixed in there. I understand the comparison to Morgrim, but really, Morgrim was acting suspicious in MII (now we know he was just being Morgrim, and I for one have acquitted him in this game for now).

Am I certain of Eevee being mafia? Not even close. It's just a hunch and a best guess going off a little evidence, at this point.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 01:08:58 pm
Volt and Galz, NEITHER OF YOU ASKED ME TO FULL CLAIM. I said I would claim if asked. No one, except Robz, asked. I was just waiting for words to the effect of "Yes, you should role claim." I never got them. Still haven't.

Anyway, here goes.

I am Town Vigilante. I have 1 one-shot night kill. It seems like kind of a weak vig variant, which is why I think there could be two (like I said, unlikely, but possible).

Since I'm likely to be nightkilled by the mob, I'm offering to use my power tonight if the town can agree on a secondary target. Otherwise, you could try to keep me alive long enough to use it for some useful purpose tomorrow night, when we have more info.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 03, 2012, 01:11:01 pm
Volt and Galz, NEITHER OF YOU ASKED ME TO FULL CLAIM. I said I would claim if asked. No one, except Robz, asked. I was just waiting for words to the effect of "Yes, you should role claim." I never got them. Still haven't.

Anyway, here goes.

I am Town Vigilante. I have 1 one-shot night kill. It seems like kind of a weak vig variant, which is why I think there could be two (like I said, unlikely, but possible).

Since I'm likely to be nightkilled by the mob, I'm offering to use my power tonight if the town can agree on a secondary target. Otherwise, you could try to keep me alive long enough to use it for some useful purpose tomorrow night, when we have more info.

Great, now 3 townies will be dead by the morning of Day 2.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 03, 2012, 01:12:39 pm
Well, any other Town Vigilantes out there? If there are, please say. I'm sure there aren't two of them. I suspect it's just you.

I don't have to unvote you, because I never voted for you. However I would really like to not die instead. What now, town?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 01:16:13 pm
Robz, I'm willing to vote Eevee, but throwing my vote around again now would just make me look worse and make the people who suspect me think twice about joining that wagon. So I'm hesitant.

Also, you're not at all out of the woods as far as I'm concerned.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on June 03, 2012, 01:20:24 pm
What now, town?
"Well lets just have his head and be done with it."
-Gimli, Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 01:27:23 pm
For the record, my vote remains, and here's why:

A) J is telling the truth: As Robz points out, his likelihood of hitting Mafia is lower than hitting town, so if he lives, it's probable 3 town instead of just 2, which AT WORST, is where we would be if he died now.

B) J is lying and is Mafia. Well, it's obvious here he should die now.

C) J is a Serial Killer. He can claim his night 1 kill vindicates his role-claim to prevent day 2 lynch, then kill again. Here, he doesn't even care who he hits, and it's better for us if he dies now.

So I can't see much reason to unvote.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 01:43:45 pm
Alright then, I won't use my shot tonight if it won't hurt the town. But at this point, the mafia will certainly kill me in the night, so it's a waste of the town's lynch. If I live through the night, you can kill me tomorrow.

As for your option C, I really can't imagine the SK doing that. It sounds brilliant in theory but there are all kinds of potential problems. SK kills and Vig kills probably have different flavor for one thing. And it would become pretty obvious what he was doing pretty quick. The SK needs to play a long game to win, and that gambit would buy someone two rounds at mose.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 01:44:17 pm
*if it WILL hurt the town.

Not a Freudian slip.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 02:46:07 pm
Lets see... J roleclaimed, and we have NO votes switching?


Yea, we definitely have no mafia voting for him right now, none at all...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 02:55:03 pm
Or, I guess, nobody's online? It's been real dead today.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 03, 2012, 02:57:24 pm
Lets see... J roleclaimed, and we have NO votes switching?


Yea, we definitely have no mafia voting for him right now, none at all...

Well, I think Yuma and Morgrim aren't around right now. Didn't they say the wouldn't around? Don't know about Michaeljb. Galzria gave his reasons. Volt... might not have seen yet, either.

But yeah, it's a little surprising. Truly, given that we believe him--and pretty much, I do--we really shouldn't kill him.

Uh, no lynch by virtue of no one having 7 votes? It's better than killing Jo if he's a power townie (or me, as I am innocent!). And we actually have gathered a lot of information this round (though what to make of it I have no idea). Maybe our Cop(s) will help us out tonight.

My vote is still on Eevee, though, for reasons I've outlined.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 02:58:45 pm
If we have protective roles, we're actually not too much worse off than we were before the roleclaim. If we don't... well, the Mafia II playgroup has come to make the Mafia win again. (minus Robz)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 03:03:07 pm
jotheonah... As you can see, your primary defense is me and Robz. Robz is not going to hammer himself, and I am not going to hammer Robz. '


It might be just a teensy bit advisable if you switched your vote from Robz to Eevee, if you wished to survive.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 03:05:29 pm
I'm doing a lot more for town than you have O, so /shrug - whatever you say.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 03:05:59 pm
You're lynching a roleclaim...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 03:07:55 pm
I'm lynching a Mafia, and I've given my reasons.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 03:09:54 pm
Unvote
Vote: Eevee

Not crazy about it, but the people who still think I'm scum will still think I'm scum, and the people who don't probably won't switch because of this. 

Who could make up four more for Eevee? def? eHalycon?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 03:11:57 pm
I don't hold that switch against you J. Irs the right move, town or Mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 03:14:17 pm
Lets see Galz.. we have 6 voting for J, a roleclaim. Some townies are like me; they instantly back off a roleclaim D1 because WE HAVE INVESTIGATIVE ROLES 90% of the time that make keeping a role-claim alive much more logical.

So you really really think no mafia are voting for J? Lol'ed
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 03, 2012, 03:15:53 pm
Galzria: I'm sorry--and I am very appreciative of how much you defended me, because you're correct about me!--but I'm getting a little worried. You have seemed so certain about Jo, certain in ways I can't possible understand. And now it looks like you're wrong there. (Or do you disagree? Do you think he's lying about his claim? I believe him, though he did himself no favors by delaying the way he did. And really, I'd probably rather he didn't kill anybody tonight, likely as he is to hit town). But you won't change your vote? I'm not accusing you or getting upset with you Galzria.

I'm just trying to understand, so that we lynch the correct person here. It seems to me like there is one certainly incorrect person--Jotheoenah, the One Shot Vigilante--so why still vote for him? Do you see my confusion? I'm not crusading against you, I'm not denouncing you, I'm just trying to understand.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 03:16:52 pm
"we have people voting for someone, but can't lynch unless people vote for someone, so he can't be Mafia" I lol'ed.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 03:19:32 pm
Robz888 (4) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee, jotheonah
jotheonah (3) - yuma, michaeljb, Morgrim7, Voltgloss, Galzria
Eevee (2) - O, Robz

Not Voting (4) - def, eHalcyon

Assume for a sec that mafia aren't voting for mafia. Not certain, but likely.

IF J is mafia (lets go before his vote-switch) 
1) Robz isn't mafia

So you're saying you believe the 3 Mafia are J, and 2 of Ehaly, Def, O, Dsell, Capt' Frisk, Eevee are mafia.

Damn certain with your constraints, are you.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 03:20:20 pm
oh and for the record, I am denouncing you  ;). Either as Mafia or bad townie, given your current voting and reasoning.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 03:22:39 pm
I'm happy with you being wrong O. Doesn't bother me.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 03:28:32 pm
Sigh.. it appears we have Me, Robz, J and Galz active, which means we're not going to make much headway.

Though I'd rather nolynch than lynch J, and probably nolynch over lynching robz.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 03:32:57 pm
Morgrim was on a minute ago. Morgrim, can we talk you into switching your vote?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 03:40:03 pm
hovering at 5-6 viewers... I guess we must have lurkers on.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 03:43:07 pm
I just caught up...One problem I have with Galz' analysis of Jo (which O brought up) is that we very likely have protective roles. If we don't lynch him, the mafia has a tough choice, because killing him could very well mean they sacrifice a night kill if he's being protected.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 03:47:23 pm
I really really do not want to vote jo. I could maybe be convinced to vote Eevee (professional poker player...) but that would mean hopping on the bandwagon with Robz, who I think is more likely mafia. This is tough. I will continue thinking about it but later on I will definitely vote for Eevee if it is the difference between a lynch and a no-lynch. I'm not highly suspicious of him but I'm not altogether unsuspicious either.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 04:08:28 pm
Pointing this out makes me feel kinda mean, buuuut Michaeljb has been online today AND gave me respect on this thread late last night/early this morning after Jo's "soft" roleclaim. So he's seen that but hasn't posted or unvoted at all...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 04:12:34 pm
Also currently on; Eevee and voltglass

Neither seems likely to change their votes.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 04:13:53 pm
Also: Ehalycon

Yuallsoinactive?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 03, 2012, 04:19:48 pm
Also: Ehalycon

Yuallsoinactive?

I just got back -- was catching up and writing up my response to recent activity.  I have not been inactive -- I posted last night and this morning.  However, my posts appear to have been mostly ignored.

@Insomnia -- I don't mind extending the deadline.

O, no response to my post 633?  I mean, if you rather keep things to yourself, fine, but at least say so and maybe give a justification.  I don't know if you just missed my post or are avoiding my questions.  I really want to know why you consider michaeljb and morgrim to be good townies to have.

Town, no response to my posts 635 and 650?  Well, j responded to some parts.  I thought I made some salient points and asked some good questions.  If not, I'd appreciate a response telling me so, pointing out my mistakes, so that I can do better. 

As it is, it seems like a good group of you guys are caught up in your own little bubbles and at each other's throats.  Barring special roles, I don't see how you all can be posting with such conviction.  Certainly some of you seem to be absolutely convinced that others are innocent, or guilty.  Too much conviction for day 1.  Is it Mafia boldly sowing confusion?  I really wonder if there are Masons around... maybe more than one group of Masons.

I'm certainly lacking the conviction you all seem to have.  I feel very much in the dark, and my attempts in gaining some traction via questions are getting ignored.


Right now I am really suspicious of nearly everyone.  There's the vocal ones that seem to be so sure of their actions.  Then there are the ones that are remaining silent despite being around (e.g. michaeljb as Dsell points out in post 689... though I haven't verified his claim, I assume he isn't lying).

I'm actually less suspicious of j right now because he actually responded to a question I posted.

To this end I am now heavily leaning towards voting for Eevee.  I want to give j a chance.  But my vote remains free as I await responses to my questions.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 04:25:04 pm
Quote
So, this leaves me a little confused.  I understand Robz and Captain Frisk, for the most part.  But what of the other two?  In your "suspicions" post you list Morgrim as medium suspicion and michaeljb as "unknown".  What makes them valuable as townies, if they are such?

Why is michaeljb in your good graces?  He hasn't been very memorable to me so far (I should go back and re-read some of these pages).  And (no offense meant to him here) Morgrim on there is especially confusing, what with the randomness fiasco early on (though you pulled a similar stunt, so...).  Is it how he managed to escape that bandwagon that impresses you?

I'd really like some reasons on these choices for "good townies".  For those you think would be harmful as townies, I think you explained the reasoning in an earlier post.  Please correct me if I'm wrong:

Dsell -- tendency to bandwagon?
Galzria -- makes statements with certainty when it is unlikely for him to have any certainty in this game (I have a post on this to follow); fairly persuasive in his posts but perhaps doesn't have the best judgement to utilize that influence.
Three townies from Mafia II -- well, they lost in the end.  Do note -- this is really just jotheonah and Voltglass, because Insomniac is the mod here, right?

Note: this is just my interpretation of O's rationale.

Morgrim because he's an oddball like me and he was poorly lynched first day M2
Michaeljb.. I don't know, he seemed rational. This is probably the most whimsical choice

You're right, Insomniac is mod, so it's the 2 townies (J and Volt). J's roleclaim obviously changes circumstances a bit and I will not be voting for him.

I do think Dsell has been taking anything Galz has said as scripture, which bothers me. And Galz really, really bothers me.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 04:27:35 pm
I also would like to say I have no major foolproof convictions. I believe Robz is very very likely townie, but no, thats not a guarantee. I believe we shouldn't lynch J because 1) I don't lynch D1 roleclaims D1 (that's inane) and 2) I happen to believe him here, not 100% confident, but I believe him.

I think Eevee has a sliiighttly (like 10%) higher than normal chance of being mafia in my eyes. That's the best i'm going to get, so i'm driving a campaign.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 04:30:26 pm
I do think Dsell has been taking anything Galz has said as scripture, which bothers me. And Galz really, really bothers me.

I just caught up...One problem I have with Galz' analysis of Jo (which O brought up) is that we very likely have protective roles. If we don't lynch him, the mafia has a tough choice, because killing him could very well mean they sacrifice a night kill if he's being protected.

I JUST posted this. I definitely have not been taking what Galz has said as scripture. A lot of what he has said and done (still voting jo...) has been very suspicious to me. He has had some good reasoning too, but I still find it odd. That's why I haven't and don't plan to vote for jo. However, it doesn't look to me like there's any chance at all that he will be lynched today.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 04:31:45 pm
I do think Dsell has been taking anything Galz has said as scripture, which bothers me. And Galz really, really bothers me.

I just caught up...One problem I have with Galz' analysis of Jo (which O brought up) is that we very likely have protective roles. If we don't lynch him, the mafia has a tough choice, because killing him could very well mean they sacrifice a night kill if he's being protected.

I JUST posted this. I definitely have not been taking what Galz has said as scripture. A lot of what he has said and done (still voting jo...) has been very suspicious to me. He has had some good reasoning too, but I still find it odd. That's why I haven't and don't plan to vote for jo. However, it doesn't look to me like there's any chance at all that he will be lynched today.

I was explaining my stance at the time of the post.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 04:32:50 pm
@eHalcyon, I thought your questions were mainly to jo/about roles? I don't know much about the roles or what is considered "common," so I really don't have much to say about that. I think your reasoning seemed sound though.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on June 03, 2012, 04:41:42 pm
I finally had a chance to catch up.  Been reviewing on phone slowly over the past two hours, reading about 5 minutes at a time when I can.  If that looks like i'm ohline continuously and saying nothing, well, I can't do anything about that.

First, UNVOTE.  I hear Galz's concerns but if J is bluffing it'll get found out upon being investigated (which I think is what O is saying?).

Second, Eevee.  I have a real concern here that is perhaps unique to me.  I got taken in by the mafia (mainly Robz) in M-II by their supporting my attack on someone (Morgrim) for his unorthodox posting and strange comments.  Now, Robz is supporting O's attack on Eevee for unorthodox posting and strange comments.  I trust the reason for my concern is clear.  Plus, I am still very suspicious of Robz, especially for accusing Eevee of using words Robz himself used.  (I really, really, REALLY have a problem with any argument that does something like that.  Either its a Mafia argument that is willfully misrepresenting the record, or it's a Town argument based on a sloppy misreading of the record.  Either way renders the argument unconvincing to me.)

Robz, what about voting for Eevee now is different from voting for Morgrim in M-II?  ("I'm not mafia this time" isn't a sufficient argument. ;)  )
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on June 03, 2012, 04:44:32 pm
Well, just woke up. I'll try to answer to what I gathered as reasons for people wanting vote for me and answer.

a) I'm not joh or robz and I have votes. I'm afraid that people who dont want to vote for joh or robz are going to gun for me just because the I already have votes and they feel joh and robz are town. I'm going to ask not to vote for me unless you find me suspicious. We can still lynch someone like def if we want to go for a random-y lynch. I really dont like his silence.

b) "I'm a pro poker player, I got to be deceiving you". Yeah, I'm good at playing games. No, I'm not playing stupid here. I mean, no one would argue that someone has to be lying because he is level 45 in dominion. Me "downgrading my abilities": I dont know. I feel robz started this. He was saying "hmm, you are not of much use.. too middle groundish, suspicious", and I answered that I'm not trying to be in the middle ground, I just dont have enough experience to be of any more help. It's not like I'm actually being stupid, I'm just not playing like Galrzia or Robz are, not sure why that would be expected of me.

O, was your vote for me only because of my rude comment? I mean, if that's going to start a bandwagon and get me lynched, I'm going to feel pretty bad about writing it.

Joh seems to be voting for me just to save himself (understandable, whatever his role). I still wish I wont end up being the sacrificicial lamb.

Idk, why do you people think I'm not playing very well? Getting yourself lynched in the first day is pretty much the worst town play there is..
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on June 03, 2012, 04:47:10 pm
Dont mind extending the deadline.

@eHalcyon

I 100% agree with the certainty thing, well put. I mean, maybe thats one of reasons I sound like I'm downgrading myself, but I dont understand how you all can be oh so sure? Everything looks really fuzzy to me.. the only thing I'm even close to being sure about is my own role.

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 04:50:40 pm
My bandwagon on you is largely because of the post containing the rude comment (though not the comment itself), I'm not going to lie. I don't hold your comment personally against you at all.

We need a pretty much random lynch, I picked you as a mostly random lynch. I'm going to keep campaigning for you as our random lynch (the whole point of a random lynch is that they're supposed to not changed. I already ruined that one by not campaigning Morgrim ATM, but its too late for that). Lynching def because he's been inactive is *not* a random lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on June 03, 2012, 04:52:06 pm
@Volt

Thanks for being better at expressing yourself in english than I am. I've been trying to state that most of Robz's accusations towards me are really not for ingame reasons (and the one's that are, I feel he is inventing out of thin air to make his case look more convincing.. stuff like constantly putting words to my mouth.) No one else finds this true / troubling?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 03, 2012, 04:59:40 pm
Thanks for the response, O.

@eHalcyon, I thought your questions were mainly to jo/about roles? I don't know much about the roles or what is considered "common," so I really don't have much to say about that. I think your reasoning seemed sound though.

The post about Galzria and jo was intended to foster discussion on their peculiar actions.  Why did jo claim a power role without revealing the role itself?  Even now that he has specified one-shot Vig, I don't see why that would have been good to keep secret.  Mafia roleblocker, maybe (a rolecop is more likely, I think)?  Though as it's been pointed out, there's probably better chance of him hitting town than scum.  I guess a mafia roleblocker could make the decision to block or not based on where his suspicions to seem to lie.

The part that still hasn't been addressed -- why is Galzria so certain of Robz?  I gave some ideas.  I'd really like Galzria to give his explanation.  He's been online but has ignored those thoughts.

I realize that in that post I didn't specifically call out Galzria to answer, but I thought he would address the points since he was under scrutiny.  Well, I'm asking now.  If other people agree that my concerns have merit, I'd like them to push him to answer.  And if I appear to be off track, please do pick my post apart.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 03, 2012, 05:07:36 pm
All - I am lurking on phone while shopping at Costco. Will fully review this evening. J's role claim is not especially convincing - especially since some variants of serial killer investigate as town. Also godfather would as well I believe.  He can't really prove be is one shot vig unless he uses his power and it seems the consensus is that he shouldn't? 

Of course, I'm still sitting on robz, so I don't need to be convinced to get off of J


Seems like nobody is in danger of lynch?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on June 03, 2012, 05:09:45 pm
i'm taking the ipad with me to the tables, hopefully i'll find a working wifi. wont be able to make long posts without the keyboard though.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on June 03, 2012, 05:20:30 pm
Pointing this out makes me feel kinda mean, buuuut Michaeljb has been online today AND gave me respect on this thread late last night/early this morning after Jo's "soft" roleclaim. So he's seen that but hasn't posted or unvoted at all...

I was going to reread some more before I change my vote, and if I recall correctly that respect I gave you was after O's list where he mistakenly put me in twice under "it'd be good if they were town" and I thought it was funny when you asked if he would just really really like it.

This game ended up being more work than I anticipated (13 people just made it way busier than the earlier games) so I've been putting off rereading.

Ok, so Unvote, but won't vote till I review more.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on June 03, 2012, 05:52:07 pm
PS I have a RL hockey game this evening, I should be home no later than 7pm PDT so I'll still have a good chunk of time before the deadline. I'm thinking I'll probably hold off on revoting till then.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on June 03, 2012, 06:26:10 pm
Current Vote Counts
Robz888 (3) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee
jotheonah (3) - yuma, Morgrim7, Galzria
Eevee (3) - O, Robz888, jotheonah

Not Voting (4) - def, eHalcyon, Voltgloss, michaeljb

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 06:42:15 pm
I'm on but coaching. I'll quickly say two things:

1) I'm being asked to unvote someone I believe to be Mafia, and instead vote for someone I think is town. My unwillingness to do so is being attacked and ripped into by certain people. Does anybody not see how my doing so would be terrible play?

2) The defense some people are employing about the  roleclaim is ridiculous. Again, I'm being attacked because I don't simply accept it, yet the argument from the other side has been "well, he claimed, so I believe him" - as if it isn't something the Mafia would EVER do. They've then gone on to ignore my post that listed 3 scenarios (J is telling the truth; J is Mafia; and J is SK), all of which I explained why it STILL makes sense to lynch him.

So, town, do you understand my positions now?

I also explained my "certainty". It's just who I am. I don't waffle, I don't hedge. I believe something, or I don't. And I will argue for what I believe until I am presented for an actual reason to be wrong. "Well, Jotheonah roleclaimed so he must be town" is just not good enough for me when as Mafia, he would've done the exact same thing, especially in a closed-setup game.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 06:43:51 pm
Well its looking very likely that we'll have a nolynch. I think I know (and it should be obvious to others) who I'm going to be campaigning to lynch D2, if we're both still alive.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 06:47:31 pm
Well its looking very likely that we'll have a nolynch. I think I know (and it should be obvious to others) who I'm going to be campaigning to lynch D2, if we're both still alive.

Read: I don't need to kill G at night because I'll campaign against him tomorrow.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 06:48:35 pm
Well its looking very likely that we'll have a nolynch. I think I know (and it should be obvious to others) who I'm going to be campaigning to lynch D2, if we're both still alive.

Read: I don't need to kill G at night because I'll campaign against him tomorrow.

If you think I'm mafia, why don't you lead a campaign against me?

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 06:54:23 pm
Well its looking very likely that we'll have a nolynch. I think I know (and it should be obvious to others) who I'm going to be campaigning to lynch D2, if we're both still alive.

Read: I don't need to kill G at night because I'll campaign against him tomorrow.

If you think I'm mafia, why don't you lead a campaign against me?

The same way you're going to mislead one against me tomorrow? No need, J will still be alive so there's no need to go after Mafia #2 at the same time and split town votes.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 06:56:12 pm
Galzria: J and O are mafia.

Waaaaayyyyyyy too confident, its just insane.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 06:57:59 pm
The votes are 3-3-3. That is a pretty sucky place to be. TOWN: The mafia are not terribly likely to vote for their own today (this is not a guarantee but as a general rule...). That means that the rest of us townies need to get our act together if anyone is going to be lynched. With 3 mafia, def absent and yuma gone until almost midnight there could be just 8 of us townies available to vote today. If we are going to lynch a mafia, it will take a near-unanimous decision. Since we don't know exactly who the mafia is, it appears unclear whether we will be able to reach that near-unanimity. If we can't, a no-lynch or a lynch of a townie is almost inevitable.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 06:59:01 pm
Galzria: J and O are mafia.

Waaaaayyyyyyy too confident, its just insane.

Right, because we should all just close our eyes and point randomly instead of paying attention. Even you wouldn't.... Oh wait, you DID say we should do that.

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 06:59:59 pm
There's reason to be suspicious of pretty much EVERYONE right now. I know I have suspicions, some stronger than others, and some that will become stronger if certain things happen. But we have 8 hours to lynch, so...time to compromise yet? I think it's too early to really be talking about tomorrow. We have to resolve today first.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 07:00:17 pm
Galzria: J and O are mafia.

Waaaaayyyyyyy too confident, its just insane.

Right, because we should all just close our eyes and point randomly instead of paying attention. Even you wouldn't.... Oh wait, you DID say we should do that.

I did say it, and I stand by it.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 07:03:40 pm
Galzria: J and O are mafia.

Waaaaayyyyyyy too confident, its just insane.

Right, because we should all just close our eyes and point randomly instead of paying attention. Even you wouldn't.... Oh wait, you DID say we should do that.

I did say it, and I stand by it.

Lol. I hope after I die the town sees just how hard the Mafia has worked to split everyone up, instead of bringing them together.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 07:05:54 pm
Galzria, you seem to think that O is mafia, but you are "certain" Robz is town. Think O is trying to make a friend by siding with him on this Eevee vote?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 07:06:28 pm
Galzria, you seem to think that O is mafia, but you are "certain" Robz is town. Think O is trying to make a friend by siding with him on this Eevee vote?

What the hell.. I STARTED the Eevee vote.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 07:07:37 pm
With 13 Alive it takes 7 to lynch
Current Vote Counts
Morgrim7 (1) - yuma
Robz888 (3) - Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Eevee
jotheonah (1) - Galzria
Eevee (1) - O

Not Voting (7) - Robz, def, michaeljb, Voltgloss, jotheonah, Morgrim7, eHalcyon

Deadline: June 3, 2012, 11:59pm PDT


Proof
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 07:08:35 pm
Galzria, you seem to think that O is mafia, but you are "certain" Robz is town. Think O is trying to make a friend by siding with him on this Eevee vote?

What the hell.. I STARTED the Eevee vote.

Ok ok you both thought he was suspicious, regardless of who voted first. You are "siding with" each other. I didn't say I agree with him that you are mafia. I'm trying to see why he is so sure that you are mafia and Robz is town when your records so far in this game look very similar.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 03, 2012, 07:09:20 pm
I'm actually pretty satisfied with no lynch at this point, and not just because my head is one of the ones on the chopping block. I feel like there's a lot of important information out there, and a lot of interesting alliances and rivalries, but I can't make sense of them yet. Perhaps our investigators or doctors will learn something helpful. Perhaps the mafia kill will put things in perspective.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 07:15:00 pm
Dsell, it's to early to make a real claim about pairs. I'm just saying O has made rather terrible arguments against me, and ignored anything that I've actually said in explanation. His responses have been: "I lol'd. Galzria is either terrible Mafia or terrible town". He's now come out saying "he's my target tomorrow". If he's successful, my voice is gone, and he will claim "See? Just a bad town. We're better without him", and I won't be there to defend, so he'll control the conversation.

Now, maybe HE is just bad town, maybe he's Mafia. I'm not nearly as certain about him as J. The fact that both will be alive tomorrow (neither will get night lynched - one is, I believe, Mafia. The other divides town, doing the Mafias job for them), so I will stay on J, and not get into a war of accusation with O, who if he IS Mafia, starts with 2 other voices on his side (even if they hedge and don't come out swinging to avoid suspicion).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 07:21:31 pm
Galzria, I'm not asking you to make a claim about pairs, I was asking for the purpose of my point, which is: you are super super confident that Robz is town and you are becoming increasingly confident (it would appear) that O is mafia. Not only have they voted the same way, they have both attacked me for being a bad townie and have generally agreed with each other most of the time. Do you feel just a little bit that your confidence could be misplaced?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 03, 2012, 07:27:12 pm
Galzria: I understand your first point.

I'm OK with your second point.  People aren't saying that they believe him, but that it is foolish to lynch him immediately after the claim.  I think your position is reasonable, but so is the other position.  I fall in line with the latter -- I want to give jo a chance.

Your certainty makes absolutely no sense to me.  Unless you have a special role that confers that knowledge on you, you simply don't have that knowledge on day 1.  Perhaps jo just had some tell that you picked up on and everyone else missed.  OK, sure.  That is almost believable.  If someone were to make such a tell, it's unlikely that they are town that accidentally appeared super scummy.

But what about Robz?  You were certain, absolutely certain, that he is town.  Why?  How can you be sure he isn't Mafia that has played a good game so far (and that's actually questionable -- plenty of people found his behaviour suspect).  Why are you assuming that your DAY ONE reads are absolutely correct?

I can believe that you have a strong read that jo is Mafia.  I can believe that you have a strong read that Robz is not.  I find it had to swallow that you know both of these things with certainty after a single day.  "I don't waffle, I don't hedge" does not work for me.  You might want to be presented with an "actual reason to be wrong", but I haven't seen satisfactory evidence from you that you're right.

You are becoming more and more suspicious to me, but my fear is  that you might have a special role that gives you certainty, and you just don't want to reveal that role.  I can't tell if you are serious that you are simply not waffling or hedging.  It really doesn't seem like you -- you were a very smart player in Mafia II, and claiming certainty does not seem smart at all.  Did you go after people with "certainty" in that game (even though it would have been an act)?  Can find examples?  How did you react when it turned out you were "wrong"?

I'm actually pretty satisfied with no lynch at this point, and not just because my head is one of the ones on the chopping block. I feel like there's a lot of important information out there, and a lot of interesting alliances and rivalries, but I can't make sense of them yet. Perhaps our investigators or doctors will learn something helpful. Perhaps the mafia kill will put things in perspective.

I absolutely disagree.  There are clearly several camps forming up.  It would be easy for Mafia to select their kill to manipulate the feelings of those who have yet to join a side.  If one of these factions is Mafia-infested, they could kill one of their townie supporters.  Or they could go after the other side and argue double bluff.  Or they could leave all this factional fighting alone and kill someone who isn't active.  No lynch leaves us nowhere, unless you expect we have several town power roles who will get lucky tonight and make a claim tomorrow.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 07:30:46 pm
You're asking if Robz/O could be Mafia, and my read on Robz is wrong?

Interesting. I don't think I am, but neither would vote J. Both have attacked the same places (although O stayed as quiet and misleading as he could, without listing any thoughts until pressed).

Hum. Worth considering. That almost sets up a trio for me in Robz/O/J.

I don't think they would be so obvious, except that, well they HAVEN'T been obvious.  Dsell, my case against J will remain into tomorrow, but I'm willing to flesh out your ideas, and UNVOTE --- VOTE:ROBZ. If nothing else, I do NOT want to see today end in no-lynch, which oddly, certain people *cough* Robz/O *cough* seem to be perfectly fine with.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 07:32:34 pm
That was very well-put eHalcyon, and I especially agree with your last paragraph. I think that while we have some good information, the mafia may be able to use their kill to manipulate one group and get some "see, I told you so!" reactions out of people, leading us to use our information poorly. I can't say for sure whether that would work, but I could see it happening.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 07:32:41 pm
#728 is directed at Dsell,, but I hope satisfies you eHalcyon? Town needs to band together now, and there may be something here.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 07:33:43 pm
"As quiet and misleading"

Quiet? You're now saying I've been *quiet*. Of all things, quiet.

You're getting increasingly ridiculous with your accusations.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 03, 2012, 07:33:57 pm
Dsell, it's to early to make a real claim about pairs. I'm just saying O has made rather terrible arguments against me, and ignored anything that I've actually said in explanation. His responses have been: "I lol'd. Galzria is either terrible Mafia or terrible town". He's now come out saying "he's my target tomorrow". If he's successful, my voice is gone, and he will claim "See? Just a bad town. We're better without him", and I won't be there to defend, so he'll control the conversation.

Now, maybe HE is just bad town, maybe he's Mafia. I'm not nearly as certain about him as J. The fact that both will be alive tomorrow (neither will get night lynched - one is, I believe, Mafia. The other divides town, doing the Mafias job for them), so I will stay on J, and not get into a war of accusation with O, who if he IS Mafia, starts with 2 other voices on his side (even if they hedge and don't come out swinging to avoid suspicion).

So you think O may be bad town, or Mafia?  Why the waffling here but not on J?  I understand the uncertainty.  I am still trying to make sense of why you are so against J.  I don't see a major case against him.  Did you present one and I've just forgotten?  The worst thing I remember you saying about him is that he appears to be too pro-town.  I think that is an OK reason to be suspicious, but a very weak reason to be certain.

NOTE: this was being typed up before Galzria made his new vote.  Going to respond to that now...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on June 03, 2012, 07:34:05 pm
can someone show me some of the math regarding to nolynch versus random lynch? i was under the impression that nolynch is just terrible for down, but nolynch seems to be gaining popularity so whats the deal? i would rather see a nolynch than myself lynched obviously but i guess that would be the case if i was mafia too.

@O a while back
I think def's silence increases the odds of him being mafia slightly (not a lot obviously but if I had a choice between lynching him or random, I'd pick him.)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 07:35:24 pm
can someone show me some of the math regarding to nolynch versus random lynch? i was under the impression that nolynch is just terrible for down, but nolynch seems to be gaining popularity so whats the deal? i would rather see a nolynch than myself lynched obviously but i guess that would be the case if i was mafia too.

@O a while back
I think def's silence increases the odds of him being mafia slightly (not a lot obviously but if I had a choice between lynching him or random, I'd pick him.)

If you can convince people to vote for def, I guess I'd consider. Good luck though, people seem to be stuck on the magical-J-O-Robz trio.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 07:35:46 pm
The "certainty" thing is just who I am. I can't explain it better. But I will respond to well made thoughts, and will change my mind. Circumstances dictate I do so. I would rather lynch town Robz than no lynch, so right or wrong if it brings town together, I'm good with this.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 07:36:52 pm
"The certainty thing is just who I am"

I read Mafia II. The certainty thing was not evident in your 6-page tome. You were mafia then.

So are you just a really really really really terrible townie?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on June 03, 2012, 07:40:00 pm
hmm again guys, what does hedging mean?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 07:41:52 pm
And I do love O's posts? Anybody else get a chuckle out of how he throws personal attacks out at anybody who suspects him or his boys? Truly lol worthy reading. +1.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 07:42:29 pm
"Hedging your bets" is a term for when you make sure the outcome isn't bad for you in either case. You're a pro poker player.. so In Roulette  ::), if you bet on both black and red, you'd "hedge your bets". Obviously in roulette, a negative-sum-game, its a bad idea, but in non-zero-sum games...
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 07:43:17 pm
And I do love O's posts? Anybody else get a chuckle out of how he throws personal attacks out at anybody who suspects him or his boys? Truly lol worthy reading. +1.

Have I really personally attacked anyone but you?  ;) I said Dsell followed you too closely, but I didn't mean to insult him.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on June 03, 2012, 07:48:36 pm
galzria, being absolutely certain about things in a game with this little information just looks superunreasonable and kind of puts everything you say into a bad light. i actually like your arguments, but that certainty just makes you look less credible and people are likely to just get stuck on your attitude  and forget what you actually had to say.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 03, 2012, 07:49:40 pm
Y tu, Galzria?

I would rather lynch town Robz than no lynch, so right or wrong if it brings town together, I'm good with this.

Why? It makes objective sense to lynch no one, rather than lynching a member of the town. I understand that no one can be sure I'm not town--but you, WERE sure, until just recently.

Let me explain my thoughts on No Lynch here. First of all, in Mafia II, I argued strongly that No Lynch was very bad. Well, I was a mafia member, so that was a misleading thing to say. In truth, it's better to lynch no one than lynch the wrong person. The mafia absolutely do want us to lynch somebody today, as long as that person is not mafia. The mafia want somebody to die every single last time there is a chance that somebody could die. We, the town, must be more judicious.

The worry about not killing anybody on Day 1 is that on Day 2 we are in the same boat. However, we aren't in the same boat on Day 2, because we have learned a lot of crazy things.

Here's the preferences for mafia: Killing innocent > No Lynch > Killing mafia
Here's the preferences for town: Killing mafia > No Lynch > Killing town

Are we going to kill a mafia right now? I am not a mafia. Jo is a One Shot Vigilante. I suspect Eevee, which is why I voted that way, but I'm not positive at all.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 03, 2012, 07:49:55 pm
You're asking if Robz/O could be Mafia, and my read on Robz is wrong?

Interesting. I don't think I am, but neither would vote J. Both have attacked the same places (although O stayed as quiet and misleading as he could, without listing any thoughts until pressed).

Hum. Worth considering. That almost sets up a trio for me in Robz/O/J.

I don't think they would be so obvious, except that, well they HAVEN'T been obvious.  Dsell, my case against J will remain into tomorrow, but I'm willing to flesh out your ideas, and UNVOTE --- VOTE:ROBZ. If nothing else, I do NOT want to see today end in no-lynch, which oddly, certain people *cough* Robz/O *cough* seem to be perfectly fine with.

Interesting!  My gut feeling is that galzria voting with me is a bad thing.  After all the certainty - confidently claiming rob is town - now you vote for him?

Fwiw - despite still feeling slighted about your value to the town etc., and really being put off by your style of posting suspicions as facts, I do agree 120% agree that J's role claim is the absolute weakest out there.

Not only given a closed setup that the odds of any specific role counter claims are low, but then the claimed role is:

- impossible to prove without wasting it's power
- provides great cover for other roles: serial killer, godfather, probably others I'm not aware of
- its power increases the longer he survives without using it.  Claiming day 1 makes it increasingly unlikely that he will live a long time - if his claim is true


Finally, he went out if his way to lay the ground work for a possible counter claim, that there Might be 2 one shot vigs in the same game?  Why stop at 2?  Maybe we are playing a game with 3 mafia and 10 one shot vigs?  (note: someone should run this game!)

The only thing that stopped me from voting for him was your support of rob and statement of absolute certainty that j is mafia.

What does everyone else think?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 03, 2012, 07:52:04 pm
#728 is directed at Dsell,, but I hope satisfies you eHalcyon? Town needs to band together now, and there may be something here.

I am curious about your sudden reversal on Robz.  Earlier you said that you didn't want to switch to Eevee because you believe J guilty and Eevee clean.  But... aren't you doing the same thing now?

I want to hear more from Robz.  Looking back on it, even though Galzria was very much supporting Robz, I don't remember Robz being so chummy in return.  I posited the possibility that Galzria was Mafia defending Robz to appear more town if Robz is killed and flips town:

2. Galzria is Mafia and Robz is townie.  If Robz gets lynched, Galzria appears to be cleared.  Why would a Mafia member argue so vehemently against the lynching of a townie?  Well, it's a huge bonus if it means that Mafia member will be free of suspicion for the rest of the game.

The scenario looks quite possible to me in light of your vote change to Robz.

As I said, I've found your (IMO)unfounded certainty to be suspicious, and your explanations for it unsatisfactory.  And now your vote change undermines your explanations.  While everyone else questions your read on J, you stick by it.  When Dsell questions your read on Robz, you say "I think I'm still right but I'll switch my vote anyway."  What gives?

Gonna be bold now.  I have no idea is crazy or if it will gain any traction, but:

VOTE: GALZRIA
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on June 03, 2012, 07:54:28 pm
"Hedging your bets" is a term for when you make sure the outcome isn't bad for you in either case. You're a pro poker player.. so In Roulette  ::), if you bet on both black and red, you'd "hedge your bets". Obviously in roulette, a negative-sum-game, its a bad idea, but in non-zero-sum games...
oh makes sense, thanks. fwiw, i havent taken O's negative posts about me as anything personal. just trying to get our points across in a heated game.

by the way i think you are all putting way too much emphasis on me playing poker. i'm just a talented gamer who happened to become obsessed with the right game at the right time and was fortunate enough to have a suitable risk tolerance etc.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 07:55:25 pm
"Hedging your bets" is a term for when you make sure the outcome isn't bad for you in either case. You're a pro poker player.. so In Roulette  ::), if you bet on both black and red, you'd "hedge your bets". Obviously in roulette, a negative-sum-game, its a bad idea, but in non-zero-sum games...
oh makes sense, thanks. fwiw, i havent taken O's negative posts about me as anything personal. just trying to get our points across in a heated game.

by the way i think you are all putting way too much emphasis on me playing poker. i'm just a talented gamer who happened to become obsessed with the right game at the right time and was fortunate enough to have a suitable risk tolerance etc.

I was being facetious (joking) about the poker thing, don't worry.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 03, 2012, 08:00:08 pm
#728 is directed at Dsell,, but I hope satisfies you eHalcyon? Town needs to band together now, and there may be something here.

I am curious about your sudden reversal on Robz.  Earlier you said that you didn't want to switch to Eevee because you believe J guilty and Eevee clean.  But... aren't you doing the same thing now?

I want to hear more from Robz.  Looking back on it, even though Galzria was very much supporting Robz, I don't remember Robz being so chummy in return.  I posited the possibility that Galzria was Mafia defending Robz to appear more town if Robz is killed and flips town:

2. Galzria is Mafia and Robz is townie.  If Robz gets lynched, Galzria appears to be cleared.  Why would a Mafia member argue so vehemently against the lynching of a townie?  Well, it's a huge bonus if it means that Mafia member will be free of suspicion for the rest of the game.

The scenario looks quite possible to me in light of your vote change to Robz.

As I said, I've found your (IMO)unfounded certainty to be suspicious, and your explanations for it unsatisfactory.  And now your vote change undermines your explanations.  While everyone else questions your read on J, you stick by it.  When Dsell questions your read on Robz, you say "I think I'm still right but I'll switch my vote anyway."  What gives?

Gonna be bold now.  I have no idea is crazy or if it will gain any traction, but:

VOTE: GALZRIA

I like it for my reasons above, but I'm sticking wih rob for fear that you are flying to his rescue at the last hour. At this point, I'm willing to vote for any of robs, galzria, or j, and will monitor the situation as evening progresses.  I don't like the Eevee vote, but that's more of a gut reaction than anything studied or reasoned.  The case against him seems to be: he's pretty vanilla, and that's what mafia wants to be on day 1.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 08:02:38 pm
galzria, being absolutely certain about things in a game with this little information just looks superunreasonable and kind of puts everything you say into a bad light. i actually like your arguments, but that certainty just makes you look less credible and people are likely to just get stuck on your attitude  and forget what you actually had to say.

I'm not sure what you want me to say. I believe something (J is Mafia), and I'm being asked to... Not? Make my case with conviction? I could say, "Well, I think X is guilty for A, B, and C, but hey, I'm willing to disregard that and jump on a bandwagon I don't believe in". Somehow that's supposed to make me appear LESS scummy?

If I believe something, I'll stand by it. That may not work for you, but it's who I am, and I'm not likely to change. I'm more than willing to admit when I'm wrong, and I'm willing to change my beliefs if presented with a reason or argument to do so.

In this case, Dsell has made an interesting point to me, and it's one I'm willing to flesh out. I'm also actually and genuinely interested in town winning, so have changed my vote to bring town together. I could write a giant post on why I believe what I do, but it'll just get torn down and disregarded as "that's what he did last game and was Mafia".

I've explained my thoughts on J. If (at this deadline), I can't convince town, I will rally around where I think I think we can being the town together: Robz. Because lynching IS better than No lynching.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 03, 2012, 08:03:45 pm
By the way, in my earlier posts I said that I had an idea for what J's power might be that would be best kept secret.  Since he didn't claim it, I just thought I'd share -- a revenge role.  That is, a role where he kills anyone who kills him in the night.  I kind of wish that had been it, as it would have been a nasty surprise to the Mafia member who tries to kill the freshly-revealed town power role.  Not sure if that kind of role has ever been used before, but it would be neat.

This closed setup sure adds a lot of tension.  So far I've been assuming two town power roles like the other games we've had, but that seems less likely to me now.  Possibly jo is telling the truth about one-shot Vigilante powers, and that there are some others with one-shot abilities.  I expect that there is at least one townie with a full power role (I would say Cop or Jailkeeper, maybe both).  And as I suggested earlier, perhaps the reason there are factions formed up (well less so now that Galz turned on Robz) is that there are multiple Mason groups.

Maybe the closed set up is to hide the fact that the town is overloaded with power roles?  It certainly gives the Mafia a chance to divide and conquer.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 03, 2012, 08:06:49 pm
galzria, being absolutely certain about things in a game with this little information just looks superunreasonable and kind of puts everything you say into a bad light. i actually like your arguments, but that certainty just makes you look less credible and people are likely to just get stuck on your attitude  and forget what you actually had to say.

I'm not sure what you want me to say. I believe something (J is Mafia), and I'm being asked to... Not? Make my case with conviction? I could say, "Well, I think X is guilty for A, B, and C, but hey, I'm willing to disregard that and jump on a bandwagon I don't believe in". Somehow that's supposed to make me appear LESS scummy?

If I believe something, I'll stand by it. That may not work for you, but it's who I am, and I'm not likely to change. I'm more than willing to admit when I'm wrong, and I'm willing to change my beliefs if presented with a reason or argument to do so.

In this case, Dsell has made an interesting point to me, and it's one I'm willing to flesh out. I'm also actually and genuinely interested in town winning, so have changed my vote to bring town together. I could write a giant post on why I believe what I do, but it'll just get torn down and disregarded as "that's what he did last game and was Mafia".

I've explained my thoughts on J. If (at this deadline), I can't convince town, I will rally around where I think I think we can being the town together: Robz. Because lynching IS better than No lynching.

No.  I don't want you to change your mind or forsake your conviction.  I want to see the logic behind that conviction.  I don't mind if you make a giant post about it as in Mafia II.  Your role in that game just means your post will undergo more scrutiny; it doesn't automatically invalidate what you have to say.  Alternatively, you can present your case as succinctly as possible.  Either option is better than saying you are sure of J's guilt while presenting no case at all.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 08:07:12 pm
My change is in the face of the deadline, and not so much else. I still think Robz is town, but admit (in light of Dsell's points) that I COULD be wrong. But any lynch is better than none, and I obviously wasn't going to convince people to vote for J today. With so many inactive town, I am trying to give town the most chance to collect the votes needed to lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 03, 2012, 08:09:38 pm
My change is in the face of the deadline, and not so much else. I still think Robz is town, but admit (in light of Dsell's points) that I COULD be wrong. But any lynch is better than none, and I obviously wasn't going to convince people to vote for J today. With so many inactive town, I am trying to give town the most chance to collect the votes needed to lynch.

Any lynch is not better than none, except for the mafia!!!!!! Lynch of a town is worse than no lynch! Why is this so hard to understand?????
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 03, 2012, 08:10:26 pm
If he thinks I'm town he shouldn't vote for me. And he's said he's certain I'm town.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 03, 2012, 08:14:49 pm
I like it for my reasons above, but I'm sticking wih rob for fear that you are flying to his rescue at the last hour. At this point, I'm willing to vote for any of robs, galzria, or j, and will monitor the situation as evening progresses.  I don't like the Eevee vote, but that's more of a gut reaction than anything studied or reasoned.  The case against him seems to be: he's pretty vanilla, and that's what mafia wants to be on day 1.

I'm not trying to defend Robz at all.  If you refer to the post that I quoted, I also listed a possibility that both are Mafia.  I'll just quote that whole section:

Galzria's Certainty

Galzria was saying that he's certain Robz is a Townie.  He later says that it's because he doesn't hedge, but even then how can he be certain?  Given how sly he was in Mafia II, I can't imagine that he would exaggerate a day 1 town read on Robz as certainty.

These are the explanations I can come up with right now:

1. Galzria and Robz are both masons (or some similar role).  If this is the case, I don't see a reason why they shouldn't role claim, but I'm a newb. 

2. Galzria is Mafia and Robz is townie.  If Robz gets lynched, Galzria appears to be cleared.  Why would a Mafia member argue so vehemently against the lynching of a townie?  Well, it's a huge bonus if it means that Mafia member will be free of suspicion for the rest of the game.

3. Galzria and Robz are both Mafia.  If Robz doesn't get lynch, that's a win.  If Robz gets lynched, Galzria can argue that as a Mafia member there is no way that he would tie himself so closely to another Mafia member, and -- oops sorry -- that he just made a really bad read on Robz.

4. Galzria has some exotic role like a Cop that can act during the day.  That's a real role, right?

At this point, I am finding #1 and #4 less likely.  I find #2 more likely than #3.  Although throwing Mafia under the bus now would give Galzria some credit, losing a teammate would still be a tough pill to swallow.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 03, 2012, 08:16:54 pm
@Insomniac

Can you let us know if the deadline will be extended?  You said it was a possibility if nobody disagreed.  I honestly can't see why anyone would oppose it, other than Mafia seeking no lynch or to force a quick and messy mislynch.  And of course, in that case, to oppose is to label oneself anti-town.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 08:17:50 pm
He was talking about the deadline being extended for next week. We have 7 hours tonight, regardless. It's unfair to the mafia to have a random extension right now. (and no, i'm not mafia)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 03, 2012, 08:19:21 pm
@Insomniac

Can you let us know if the deadline will be extended?  You said it was a possibility if nobody disagreed.  I honestly can't see why anyone would oppose it, other than Mafia seeking no lynch or to force a quick and messy mislynch.  And of course, in that case, to oppose is to label oneself anti-town.

I thought the question was for day 2, but maybe I'm misremembering.  Not going to search on iPad.  In general,I'd be in favor of never having the end of day fall on a weekend. 
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on June 03, 2012, 08:20:58 pm
The extension is for Day 2. Any extension given today would be too short notice to be fair
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 03, 2012, 08:23:29 pm
Oh, my bad.

O, you implied you were going to campaign for Galzria day 2.  Why not switch now and try to make something happen?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 08:24:08 pm
Here's why lynching a town is better than no lynch. I'll use smaller numbers to make it easier:

If we start with an odd number of players (7) and (for this case) 2 Mafia, if we no lynch a townie dies at night leaving 6. There are now 4 town and 2 Mafia, and all 4 town must vote together to reach a majority. If they mislynch again, 2 town die, and the game ends.

If we start with an odd number of players (7) and (for this case) 2 Mafia, if we lynch a townie
and one dies at night, 5 remain. There are now 3 town and 2 Mafia, and all 3 town must vie together to reach a majority. If they mislynch, Mafia wins.

Both situations end with a Mafia win, but it is EASIER to get 3 town to vote together than 4. This argument holds true for any situation where there starts an odd number of people in the town. If we have an even number (first example after no lynch), it is better to no lynch again, to allow for the fewest number of town votes to lynch Mafia.

But we have 13. Lynching a town is better than not lynching. Today we need 7 of 10 (maybe 9). No lynch means we need 7 of 9 (as 12 players remaining, it takes 7 to reach majority).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 08:28:16 pm
I'm.. not sure. I hate Galzria's playstyle. I really really do. I also enjoy pissing Galzria off in this mafia game (its quite fun). But do I think he's mafia? Before he switched to Robz, I didn't really think so. But why the hell would he switch to Robz? It was ridiculous, after he vouched so hard for Robz. But it could be because we pressured him as a townie to the breaking point.

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 08:28:50 pm
"Lynching a town is better than nolynching"

OK, thats it

Unvote
Vote:Galzria
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 08:30:13 pm
So do I think Robz is Mafia? Not really. Could he be? Ehh, maybe. Does it MAKE SENSE for me to leave my vote where my convictions are, resulting in a no lynch? No. If I could get people to vote J today, then yes. But with the deadline approaching it's apparent I can't. I would be hurting the town more to just "let" a no lynch happen because of my convictions and stubbornness.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 08:30:38 pm
Whoa, lots of new stuff.

Yay to the rest of the town for coming out and talking, that's the first thing I want to say. I feel like we have momentum now. The trouble, of course, is that we don't have a clear target.

Robz's and O's belief in my claim clears them somewhat in my book. The mafia are the ones who I expect to be advancing the "he's faking it" agenda since lynching me is much safer than nightkilling me, which might fail if I'm protected somehow.

So, who has made those arguments? Captain Frisk, and Galz. Could Captain Frisk be mafia? Absolutely. But he's stayed off my radar so far, and his points about my role claim are good points - it would be a convenient scum claim in several ways. I would hope that the lack of a counterclaim would be good evidence in my support, but CF's post could just as easily read to me as town.

Now Galzria... Galz talked about unvoting me when I softclaimed, but when I actually claimed he didn't back down. In fact, he didn't unvote me until people became so aggravated with his certainty that it started looking like people would turn on him. The longer his crusade against me has gone on, the less town he's looked in my eyes, and I'm happy to see I'm not alone in that view.

What else bothers me about Galz? He keeps making comments about how he either is or isn't going to die in the night. In fact, he's gradually made the switch from "I am gonna die tonight" to "They're going to keep me alive tonight to breed suspicion." This reads to me like mafia making sure he has a good excuse for surviving night one. Recall that in M-II, one tell that very nearly unraveled G's masterful game was when I became suspicious that he hadn't been nightkilled yet.

I was thinking G was town because his crusade was so unrelentingly obvious that the mafia would never do that, but last game's results are relevant here. Galzria just came off a game as mafia. He draws mafia again. How can he make sure he won't get caught by someone analyzing his meta? Adopt the totally opposite mafia strategy. And from what I know of Galz, I can just see him taking this kind of a risk with his Day 1 play - especially if his two cohorts are still out there.

I was feeling dirty about the E vote because my confidence that he's scum is low. And I agree with Robz that no lynch is not the end of the world for town, in a case where town really can't decide. But neither of those votes is necessary if I can vote for someone who I really, truly think is scum. Unless some overwhelming evidence falls from the sky, I will not be changing my vote again today.

Unvote
Vote: Galzria

Final note, I hope you won't all see me just voting for him because he voted for me. I had many chances to do that, and instead I gave him the benefit of the doubt. But his play has gotten scummier and scummier in my eyes, and I'm ready to make a stand.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 08:32:58 pm
And look at them move. O hasn't pissed me off at all, but here ya go. Want terrible town play? You won't listen to me anyway, so what the hell. VOTE: GALZRIA
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on June 03, 2012, 08:33:42 pm
@Insomniac

Can you let us know if the deadline will be extended?  You said it was a possibility if nobody disagreed.  I honestly can't see why anyone would oppose it, other than Mafia seeking no lynch or to force a quick and messy mislynch.  And of course, in that case, to oppose is to label oneself anti-town.

I thought the question was for day 2, but maybe I'm misremembering.  Not going to search on iPad.  In general,I'd be in favor of never having the end of day fall on a weekend.

I fully agree, maybe extending next weeks deadline by two days and then having all the subsequent deadlines fall on a wednesday?

Galzria, I'm not saying you shouldnt try to convince others when you have a strong hunch. I'm saying you would be more likely to have some success if you appeared more like you got to your conclusions using the info all of us have available. Saying you are 100% sure is just moronic if you are a vanilla townie, surely you wouldnt make a bet about it if I laid you 20-1 (even if you should if you are 100% sure). That means a) you know something others dont (mafia, mason?) or b) you actually arent as sure as you make it seem.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 08:33:46 pm
Like I pointed out above, it's better I die as town than no lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 08:34:18 pm
O hasn't pissed me off at all,

I really hope that was intentional sarcasm, instead of unintentional irony.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 03, 2012, 08:36:31 pm
Unvote
Vote: Galzria

Final note, I hope you won't all see me just voting for him because he voted for me. I had many chances to do that, and instead I gave him the benefit of the doubt. But his play has gotten scummier and scummier in my eyes, and I'm ready to make a stand.

To be fair, if you ARE Mafia, you wouldn't make the switch because it would look vindictive and scummy, and it probably wouldn't gain traction.  But there is a wagon now...

And look at them move. O hasn't pissed me off at all, but here ya go. Want terrible town play? You won't listen to me anyway, so what the hell. VOTE: GALZRIA

There's a chance we might still be stuck at 6 and end with no lynch.  This isn't going to make me unvote.  What might make me unvote is if you give ANY good reason why you suspect jo so very much.  You have avoided that again and again.  The strongest case you've made is that he appeared very pro-town to you.  That's not strong enough.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 08:36:57 pm
O hasn't pissed me off at all,

I really hope that was intentional sarcasm, instead of unintentional irony.

Just the truth. /shrug
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 08:38:57 pm
No e, I hope I get to 7. You can put a dent in O's beloved "perfect record".
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 08:39:30 pm
No e, I hope I get to 7. You can put a dent in O's beloved "perfect record".

Perfect record? I lynched a townie with my first vote.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 03, 2012, 08:40:14 pm
Like I pointed out above, it's better I die as town than no lynch.

I disagree.  A lot can happen before we get into a lylo situation.  Heck, a lot can happen TONIGHT.  We have no idea what power roles are out there, and that can really matter.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 08:41:59 pm
For the record, eHal, if you look at the length of my post and the time stamp on my post and O's, you'll see that I was composing it long before I saw his vote.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 03, 2012, 08:45:18 pm
For the record, eHal, if you look at the length of my post and the time stamp on my post and O's, you'll see that I was composing it long before I saw his vote.

Fair enough.  But my vote was the first, and voting second feels a lot safer than voting first.  Plus, you could have been composing the post without intending to vote until you saw O's (due to the "new posts have been made" feature of the forum).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Eevee on June 03, 2012, 08:50:04 pm
"Lynching a town is better than nolynching"

OK, thats it

Unvote
Vote:Galzria
Yeah wtf.
VOTE: Galzria
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 03, 2012, 08:53:17 pm
"Lynching a town is better than nolynching"

OK, thats it

Unvote
Vote:Galzria
Yeah wtf.
VOTE: Galzria

I believe this is 6.  Galzria - any words?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on June 03, 2012, 08:54:38 pm
Aww, you are too nice to be Mafia! Maybe it is that you are a fellow solo challenge hoster. ;)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 08:55:52 pm

2) The biggest lesson for me is "O is a terrible player"


I'll just repeat my Mafia I voting record:

Townie over Town Cop
Mafia Rolecop over Town Cop
Mafia (universal tho)

I also sparked tons of contributions to this thread, whereas you've been nearly entirely silent.

Have you even played much mafia before? It'd be funny if you made such a claim while being relatively inexperienced.

Plus you vote for robz without a real reason to.


Unvote
Vote:Eevee

Seemed pretty proud to me. You also used it in post #449.

Also, I believe #276 you said "statistically, lynching is better than not lynching", now you use it as a reason to vote for me. Lol.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 03, 2012, 08:57:37 pm
"Lynching a town is better than nolynching"

OK, thats it

Unvote
Vote:Galzria
Yeah wtf.
VOTE: Galzria

I believe this is 6.  Galzria - any words?

I thought it was 5?

Me, O, jo, Galzria himself, Eevee... did I miss someone?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 09:00:23 pm
Anyway, hope I hit 7 soon. This is going to be funny watching Mafia go perfect in this game (winning in the fewest number of turns they can). Although as I can still win if they lose, I hope you all will consider what I said after my death.

You may not like that I play with conviction, but that won't change. Look forward to pissing O off in future games as town by playing the exact same way.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 03, 2012, 09:01:21 pm

I believe this is 6.  Galzria - any words?

Ooops - Control F was finding votes within quotes.

Seems like we have:


eHalcyon
joTheonah
Galzria
O
eeVee
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 03, 2012, 09:05:33 pm
And look at them move. O hasn't pissed me off at all, but here ya go. Want terrible town play? You won't listen to me anyway, so what the hell. VOTE: GALZRIA

That's it!

I see 3 possibilities:

1.  Galzria has finally mafia forum snapped and wants to flip the table.
2.  Galzria is making a calculated risk as the bandwagon grows that by appearing to do something absolutely terrible (self lynch), we will put a stop to the lynching.
3.  Galzria is prone to erratic play - similar to Morgrim.

Based on his play from Mafia II - I'm ruling out 3.  I bet Galzria was sitting at home, with a big dopey grin on his face when Morgrim self hammered.

Based on his play from Mafia II - and his continued interested (although hedged in Mafia IV) - that I'm going to say that 2 is more likely than 1.

I'm nervous - but I'm going to:

Unvote

Vote: Galzria
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 09:08:47 pm
Yay! Need one more people. See how the Mafia lead. Lynch Galzria!
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Morgrim7 on June 03, 2012, 09:10:20 pm
Yay! Need one more people. See how the Mafia lead. Lynch Galzria!
Why are you doing this!?! Downvote, a million times.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 03, 2012, 09:11:40 pm
Yay! Need one more people. See how the Mafia lead. Lynch Galzria!

I refuse to accept that someone with the experience you have would truly be willing to self hammer as town to prove a point.  You are either taking a really big risk, or you are a serious jerk.  Since with a few exceptions, everyone on these forums is super friendly and awesome, I'm going with "big risk".
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 09:13:10 pm
I'm town, really, and O isn't bothering me. What did it for me were the constant calls and suspicions that because I showed conviction, I could be Mafia, FOLLOWED by "He is willing to give ground in the face of a perfectly present deadline, now I KNOW he's Mafia!"

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 09:18:38 pm
Damned if you do, damned if you don't. I don't mind suspicions for having convictions. But the responses I got for TRYING to be reasonable, after I had universally been asked to do just that were incredibly... Ugh. I don't even know.

Unvote

Make you feel better? Probably not. Suspect me for one thing, fine. But to ask me to budge and then claim I must be Mafia because I DID?

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 03, 2012, 09:19:13 pm
I'm town, really, and O isn't bothering me. What did it for me were the constant calls and suspicions that because I showed conviction, I could be Mafia, FOLLOWED by "He is willing to give ground in the face of a perfectly present deadline, now I KNOW he's Mafia!"

I will be sorry if you flip town, but I was NEVER suspicious because you showed conviction.  I apologize if it sounded like that, but as I've repeatedly clarified in my last few posts, my suspicion is because you have showed conviction WITHOUT giving reason for it.  All you've done is say that jo looks too much like town.  Later on you said that you wouldn't give reasons because it would be torn apart, and big long explanations were your thing in Mafia II.  Even if that's the case, you could at least give a short explanation of some sort to back up your argument against jo.  Anything.  I mean, if you have such strong conviction, surely the reason can be summarized in a paragraph.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 09:26:23 pm
My reasons WERE listed in a (longer than necessary) post earlier. To sum it up, his words read town, his actions read Mafia. By that I mean someone who goes out of their way to DIVIDE the town, as his exercise did, drawing 6 different names as suspicious from 5 different people.

He also said one thing "Vote people, because anything less than 4 isn't a worry", then unvoted  (unvoted O, I'll add), because he didn't want to "leave him in danger", when O only had 3 votes.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 09:40:03 pm
VOTE: JOTHEONAH so at least if I die, I die somewhere I believe my vote could serve some REAL help to the town.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 03, 2012, 09:51:06 pm
My reasons WERE listed in a (longer than necessary) post earlier. To sum it up, his words read town, his actions read Mafia. By that I mean someone who goes out of their way to DIVIDE the town, as his exercise did, drawing 6 different names as suspicious from 5 different people.

He also said one thing "Vote people, because anything less than 4 isn't a worry", then unvoted  (unvoted O, I'll add), because he didn't want to "leave him in danger", when O only had 3 votes.

I remember this post.  I remember feeling rather lukewarm about it, but I'm not sure now.  A lot has happened since then.  Can you link it so we can review?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: michaeljb on June 03, 2012, 09:54:57 pm
Jeebus leave for a few hours and three new pages...real post coming once I catch up.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 10:09:06 pm
Same boat as Michaeljb, let me go through everything.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 10:10:26 pm
Alright, at the request of Dsell (although I would like to keep this short(er). No books this game!):

I started to type this out, explaining step by step how I came to my conclusions, and realized that it was going to become WAY to long for me to start setting a standard now. So instead I'm going to bullet point with commentary.


  • Where does Jotheonah stand on letting people sit with a few votes?

I would feel like kind of a jerk letting Morgrim be the Day 1 lynch ... AGAIN. Poor guy just wants to play some mafia.

On the other hand, two votes in a town this size is not so big a pressure cooker. It takes seven to kill? So 4 votes is the bare minimum for a mafia hammer, and that's assuming fairly stupid mafia play. So everybody calm down a little.

Seems to be pretty good advice. Don't panic over a few votes, because with this many people, a few votes can't hurt. Let's look at how he applied that advice to himself:

Ok, well I'm going to bed so I'm going to Unvote. It's been fun, this sparring with O, but I'm not actually convinced enough that he's mafia to leave that sitting there all night.

eHalycon, you're online and you're not participating in the exercise! what a mafia thing to do.

Taken all by itself, this seemed like a nice thing to do. And in fact, he even had ME thinking that:

Ok, well I'm going to bed so I'm going to Unvote. It's been fun, this sparring with O, but I'm not actually convinced enough that he's mafia to leave that sitting there all night.

eHalycon, you're online and you're not participating in the exercise! what a mafia thing to do.

+1 for doing the right thing. Unless you're Mafia covering your tracks. Hmm, ah, +1 anyway. I'm feeling nice today.

Buuut, not entirely. Those posts are back to back, and I was wary of how pro-town it felt even then. When Jotheonah unvoted, there were only 3 votes on O. One below the 4 that he admits being the "worry" number. And even 4 is only the "worry" number if the Mafia plays EXTREMELY poorly by hammering out the last 3 votes. So outside of "being a nice guy" there wasn't much reason for him to retract his vote except to give off a pro-town vibe. Is that damning all by itself? No, not really. Confusing, certainly. Saying one thing, and doing another for the sole purpose of being nice just didn't sit right with me.

  • Why was I wary of Jotheonah by that point?

Jotheonah's unvote post was #310. He stated in it that he was going to bed, but "jokingly" accused eHalcyon of not participating in his exercise. His "exercise" was post #291, less than 20 posts earlier:

I hear ya on that one. OK everybody, I am BORED. So I propose a game. Imagine that Insomniac posted that the new deadline was tomorrow and everyone has to vote for someone. Who would you vote for and why? (Note: don't ACTUALLY vote.)

And ... GO!

(I will be immediately suspicious of anyone who chooses not to participate in this exercise)

This was the post that grabbed my attention. I posted in M-II MANY times over that the Mafia would do their best to stir up confusion and suspicion. While I did my best to remain as "town" as I could there, I also did my best to poke and prod as many places as I could. J does a good job once again of phrasing this post to appear pro-town (especially the "don't actually vote" - Do you REALLY think that was necessary?), but stop for a moment and think what this ACTUALLY does.

I can't recall who (I think it was Dsell, though maybe C.F.) said they weren't REALLY suspicious of Robz, but were just taking part in this "exercise", and it was Robz's response that made them start thinking as him as a possible Mafia. There are a lot of people in this game. If accusations start flying around by townies without any real drive behind them, we will end up self-lynching ourselves. So what does he do? He starts this exercise, and then gets outta the way by "going to bed".

This was a great Mafia move in a town this size. His first response to both my above accusations is this:

Quick reply to G before work.

I was bating O. He didn't seem to be taking the game seriously, I thought a few votes on his head would change that. It did. Look how he's been playing lately. As soon as he looked to be in any real danger I unvoted.  Just like my "exercise" post, I'm looking for ways to generate meaningful replies for analysis. I think it's working.

By his own admission earlier, O should not have appeared to be in any "real danger". That unvote served no purpose except to make him look good. He knows that his case for survival in later days is going to be how he composed himself early. It worked for me, why not for him?

His second point is more to the truth of the matter. "I think it's working". Let's look at who had "accused" who in his "exercise":
#315, Voltgloss -> eHalcyon
#312, eHalcyon -> Morgrim/O
#304, Dsell -> def/Robz
#294, Galzria -> O/Volt
And much further down (at Eevee's first chance online), you have post #365 (will quote that a bit below): Eevee - Jotheonah/O

And that's not to mention Yuma or C.F. who had Morgrim voted already.

So his seemingly helpful exercise has caused the town to blow up in suspicions of each other, NONE of which he had a hand in. Why is that important? Two reasons:

1) He can't be tied back to any bad lynch that comes from that
2) He has town jumping on town.

We have SIX people as listed suspects in that list (seven if you include him from Eevee's post). Two of which are still primary suspects in most of your eyes. And NEITHER of those two has J connecting to them.

  • One last point before I go. This is already way longer than I wanted and as I'm tired, probably not as clear as I intended. Eevee's post #365 (Taking part in the "exercise") and J's response to it:

Suspicious: johtheonah (Something feels very off here. I'll try to think of a way explain this when I have more time, I actually meant to just post a list now but I started writing the neutral column first and had something to say about everyone of those so I feel I've got to do the same here)

That something you can't explain Eevee, is that he is too damn "pro-town". Everything he's done he's done in a "to help the town" manner, but has done anything BUT, or cast him in a better light. And before you could get more time to try and think what it was:

First of all, sorry for being busy and not posting for a while. Just caught up with everything.. oh so much reading. Makes me forget the stuff I had to say four pages back.. should really try to get online every 5 hours or so to not miss out on stuff.

Oh well, I'll chime in with my hunches now:

Suspicious: johtheonah (Something feels very off here. I'll try to think of a way explain this when I have more time, I actually meant to just post a list now but I started writing the neutral column first and had something to say about everyone of those so I feel I've got to do the same here) > O (you've got to know that is bad bad town play.. kind of weird though, dont really think you would go that route if you were mafia either but.. eh, pretty confident that cant be a power townie role at least) > Morgrim (was my #1 suspect until someone posted he was just like this in some other game where he was town. Still not exaclty convinced but certainly helps his case)

Neutral: michaeljb (you post a lot yet I still dont remember any of your opinions. have you actually said much anything?), def (posting so little, hard to say), Galzria (posts a lot, some of it looks mafia-ish, some of it townish. undecided still but inclined to believe you're clean and sincere), Captain_Frisk (I find myself agreeing with a lot of your posts but am still not convinced. somehow it feels like you arent 100% honest / helping town as much as you could if you really wanted to)

I'm-pretty-sure-is-town: Voltgloss, Dsell (good, well-argumented posts that strongly make me feel like I can trust you. Either of these being mafia is a scary thought but I can't really see that being the case, it doesnt seem like either is holding any info back).

???: Robz, half the time you seem like a sure townie, then you go around and say something too stupid for a guy that smart and start looking suspicious again. Your playing style is very good for the game though, so if I was equally suspicious of you and someone else, I'd rather vote for the someone else.

If the lynch was tomorrow morning, I'd pick either O or johtheonah but hopefully we'll get more info before we have to cross that bridge. Everything still looks very puzzling, I find myself hoping I could be "sure" of someone so that I could really start to hammer that person instead of posting these somewhat vague thoughts (sorry guys, I really dont have anything better to offer). Mafia seems to be playing very well which makes me suspect the silent ones and the more experienced ones more (and johtheonah seems to be the only one of my 3 suspects above who fits either of these labels so arghhhh).

BWUH? Man I don't mind being accused here and there, shows the town are on their toes and all that, but I just got cited as #1 suspicious person without any concrete (or even abstract) reasons given AT ALL.  Eevee, I was getting a town read off you, but who does that?

I want to believe you're just new and don't see how incredibly suspicious that kind of vague, unsubstantiated pseudo-accusation is.

Also, you say Mafia is playing well, but I'm not sure what that even means at this point. All we can say is that Mafia hasn't done anything unbelievably stupid.

The very first person that suspected him in his exercise, he flips out over. **Oh No! How could THAT have happened! Well, good thing Eevee didn't bring any PROOF.** Boy, shoe doesn't fit so well on the other foot, does it J?

-----

So there you go. Probably not as clear as I normally would like, but I'm tired, and I don't have AS much at stake as my M-II game. Again though, I ask that you not be led to my conclusion based on my argument, but based on your own reasoning. I just ask that you stop to consider, "How would *I* act if I were Mafia? What would I try and do?" I feel that if you look at J's posts through that light, you'll notice that he looks pretty darn scummy. Not because he appears to the TOWN as scummy, but because he DOESN'T, yet his actions don't lead to good Town results.

To sum up:

His actions didn't back up his words regarding early voting.
He got off the "bandwagon" of O to set himself as looking good for future days.
His "exercise", while well disguised, did nothing but hurt the town.
He responded vitriolically to the taste of his own medicine when Eevee put him on the "would vote tomorrow" list
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 10:11:40 pm
Don't worry Eevee, I personally have not found your contributions scummy. I probably couldn't be convinced to vote for you day 1, in the same way that I probably couldn't be convinced to vote for Robz.

Now, I know that a bad lynch IS better than a no lynch because, well, the only person I KNOW is town is myself. So even if I don't believe someone is Mafia, they will still have a higher chance to be than I do.

So I will not rule out switching my vote at the deadline if I can't convince people to think backwards. I want to make sure we lynch SOMEBODY, but I would prefer it to be the person that I suspect. Alas, the troubles of being a team when you don't know who your teammates are!

That said, I would ask everybody to step back for just a moment and think: "If I were Mafia, how would I act, and how would I want the town to see me?" You'll start to understand why I find such strong pro-town play day 1 so much more suspicious than someone who appears (with 13 people playing) to give off slight Mafia "tells".

Most of you have admired that your feelings aren't strong, but that you just don't feel more comfortable with reads on anyone else. I understand that. I do. But put yourself in the Mafia's shoes (I've been there, remember) and you'll see why your angle of approach is wrong.

((I only refer to day 1, btw. After, everything goes out the window).
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 10:12:56 pm
Alright, I've reviewed everything up to this point (Wow, more than 400 posts already!?! Seriously? 13 people are hard to keep track of! I can't believe we've had so much (even if the first ~100 were pre-game) already!)

I know def has said that he won't be as active, and that's generally fine, but I'm not sure who he's really helping in a game that (with shorter deadlines) is going to move so fast.

Still, I'm not going to get on him this round.

With the deadline fast approaching however (A day and a half away people), I am going to cast my vote now. I've been talking about my suspicions for awhile, and while O raised my hackles early on, I think he did so TOO much to be Mafia. At least for now (If I'm wrong, well played day 1 O). There's also been a lot of talk about Robz, and while I think that the people making their points about him certainly have something to go on, I also believe that those arguments are false. They're traps that have been fallen into both in M-I (Theory), and M-II (Morgrim). It's way to easy to start needling away at somebody, see them get a little defensive, and drive home the bandwagon. Especially in the first round. I don't believe the people going AFTER Robz are Mafia either, just inexperienced. Maybe that'll be the death of me. Who knows.

No, I'm going to stick to my guns here, and VOTE: JOTHEONAH. I'm going to do so for three reasons:

1) As I voiced earlier, I think he is driving conversation too much. His "Who would you vote for if the deadline were tomorrow" exercise, while I thought was good for getting people to think, it was also good for getting people to NOT think about him. He's been way to Pro-Town. Yes, that's counter-intuitive, but if my suspicions are correct, a good place for Mafia to be day 1.

2) His "on and off" vote of O. He got on O's case because it was easy to do, but he didn't get on for a good reason. "Being annoying" didn't add anything real to the discussion, and the other reasons listed was all just parroting of things I had already said. If that bandwagon goes anywhere and O gets lynched, it's easier to blame the originator (me) than the guy who liked his argument and actually voted first (Jotheonah). The weakness of his argument was actually pointed out to him, and he unvoted before going to bed. A very nice thing for him to do, yes? Except with so many people (as has been pointed out) there really wasn't any risk of a hammer vote. Someone pointed out how terrible the Mafia play would have to be to quick-hammer votes #5, #6, and #7 round 1. And O was only at 3. The fact is, town isn't GOING to quick hammer. They are going to take their time and slowly build up a case, because they want to feel sure. So the ONLY thing his unvote did was make him look nice.

3) Since I've pointed out why I think he's Mafia hiding as town, he's stopped responding. I fully expect this to change with my vote and reasons listed above. So J, I look forward to your rebuttal. His point that my whole argument for him being Mafia is that he appears so pro-town doesn't get him anywhere. Yes J, that is EXACTLY my point.

So, there you have it. Mafia get by round 1 because it's easy to hide as town, and easy for town to lead themselves to their own doom. Too many people, too many suspicions, too many straw-man cases. All they have to do is appear helpful and friendly. Active and important. Town will lynch themselves going after their own shadows. I propose a different tactic. Stop chasing our own shadows and actually look amongst ourselves.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 10:13:26 pm
There you are eHalcyon.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 10:13:40 pm
I largely trust the town's ability to reread, but would it be helpful for me to also dig up my defenses against all those posts? Because I'm happy to do that, if people feel it's warranted.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 03, 2012, 10:13:48 pm
What's throwing me for a loop here is that the situation Galzria finds himself in is one entirely of his own making. By insisting on certain people's innocence and guilt, by insisting that we kill someone, anyone, even people he thinks are innocent, even people who are Power Townies, switching his vote to the person he had long defended, and by carrying on a personal feud (which I'm not blaming him for, I don't know who started it, or care, or whatever), Galzria has created suspicion for himself when previously very little existed.

Because Galzria is a savvy mafia player, rather than a crazy person, I'm trying to come up with reasons why Galzria would do all this. Or has he simply snapped?

Because I can't imagine why Mafia Galzria would do this--and because I still maintain that a 'no lynch' is perfectly acceptable at this point--I will not be voting for him. However, if 7 people are persuaded to vote for him, I can hardly blame them.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 10:19:33 pm
Because Mafia Galzria is not Town Galzria. And Town Galzria isn't as polished.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 10:23:57 pm
My switch to you, I explained. I DO believe that any lynch  (outside roles) is better than no lynch. And while I listed 3 situations for J to be, I still believe him Mafia. And I STILL have not seen a defense about not lynching him because of the claim outside of "he claimed, so he must be telling the truth", which could be done as both the role, and as a Mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 03, 2012, 10:25:50 pm
Because Mafia Galzria is not Town Galzria. And Town Galzria isn't as polished.

Well, I would believe that. I was the same way earlier this round. Town Robz wasn't as polished as Mafia Robz, and I got myself into trouble with a couple people, as you know. You were probably thinking you're immune, because you're not mafia this time, so what's their to suspect about you? You won't give anything away--there's nothing to give away, because you're not hiding anything, you're town. This is how I was playing, too. Well, lesson learned for me. I hope you've learned it as well.

And truly I disagree with you about the necessity of lynching this round, which is still my big hang up about you. I am pretty sure we are going to mistakenly lynch a townie no matter what we do--indeed, the main contender for awhile appears to now be a Power Townie--in which case it is absolutely better to not lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 10:26:00 pm
Because Mafia Galzria is not Town Galzria. And Town Galzria isn't as polished.

If this is true, it's really beautifully ironic.

But Robz, you of all people would recognize a clone of G's MII playing style. He had to shake it up. It's hard enough to come up with one way of playing mafia that convincingly apes town. Galzria found himself needing to come up with two. Is it any wonder that the second one cracked up?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 03, 2012, 10:27:23 pm
Because Mafia Galzria is not Town Galzria. And Town Galzria isn't as polished.

If Mafia Galzria was in this game, would he act like Mafia Galzria from Mafia II - after a masterful display of town destruction?  I would hazard a guess that he would not.   I don't know that Mafia Galzria II would behave this crazy, but... certainly I wouldn't expect you to play the same.

Would town Galzria vote for himself?  We're not talking about joking / threatening to self hammering... you actually voted for yourself.  You taunted the town while @ 6 votes.  Why on earth would you do that?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 10:28:44 pm
Maybe Galzria saw my successes with being a screwball townie and decided to copy me, but intensify it times 20?

Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 03, 2012, 10:30:59 pm
Because Mafia Galzria is not Town Galzria. And Town Galzria isn't as polished.

If this is true, it's really beautifully ironic.

But Robz, you of all people would recognize a clone of G's MII playing style. He had to shake it up. It's hard enough to come up with one way of playing mafia that convincingly apes town. Galzria found himself needing to come up with two. Is it any wonder that the second one cracked up?

Well, that does make sense. I'm not ruling that explanation out. It just doesn't entirely explain how far he's flown off the rails, to me.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Voltgloss on June 03, 2012, 10:31:30 pm
I'm in the Dsell/michaeljb camp of "just now getting to read the latest and holy Shelter has a lot happened."  Trying now to organize my thoughts.  I wasn't seriously analyzing the possibility of Galzria as Mafia (or SK, I guess) before this, but now I guess I have to.

One thing I was wishing for and couldn't find is an updated vote count.  So I made one.  If someone who's been following more closely sees this is wrong, please holler.

Robz (1 vote)
- Dsell

jotheonah (3 votes)
- yuma
- Morgrim
- Galzria

Eevee (1 vote)
- Robz

Galzria (5 votes)
- eHalcyon
- O
- jotheonah
- Eevee
- Captain_Frisk

Not voted: def, Voltgloss, michaeljb
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 10:31:53 pm
@C.F. Because I honestly don't enjoy being myself (conviction to the point of stubbornness), being begged by everybody to concede SOME, doing so, and then being attacked for it. Wrong of me? Sure. But I was pissed about that. I also unvoted very shortly after that, and (if) I die now, at least I do so with my vote where it belongs: beside my convictions I never should've left.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: jotheonah on June 03, 2012, 10:34:03 pm
Because Mafia Galzria is not Town Galzria. And Town Galzria isn't as polished.

If Mafia Galzria was in this game, would he act like Mafia Galzria from Mafia II - after a masterful display of town destruction?  I would hazard a guess that he would not.   I don't know that Mafia Galzria II would behave this crazy, but... certainly I wouldn't expect you to play the same.

Would town Galzria vote for himself?  We're not talking about joking / threatening to self hammering... you actually voted for yourself.  You taunted the town while @ 6 votes.  Why on earth would you do that?

When he hit 6 votes, he took his vote off himself. And he was here watching it like a hawk the whole time. I think he was hoping for a landslide of "Oh he must be town"s. Or he just lost his shit. This is an intense game.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 10:34:49 pm
My views:

Possibility 1: Galzria is mafia (30%)
He tried the self-vote-zomg-I'm-insane-route to try to deflect voters
Possibility 2: Galzria is vanilla townie (65%)
He honestly believes townie lynch is better than no lynch. He thinks me and J are mafia partners and that him dying will lead to our lynchings, good for the town. Problem: Me and J aren't mafia partners
Possibility 3: Galzria is a power role
We're f*****
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Insomniac on June 03, 2012, 10:35:26 pm
Voltgloss your vote tally is correct, I've been watching and keeping track but the game has been moving fast enough that anything I post will almost certainly be outdated as I post it
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 03, 2012, 10:36:30 pm
Yay! Need one more people. See how the Mafia lead. Lynch Galzria!

@jotheonah - he didn't take it off immediately...   he let it ride far longer than I would have.  I wonder how he fits those balls in his pants.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 10:37:16 pm
Guys!!! Great News!!

We have now passed the post counts of the Mafia I and II games


wooooooooooooo we're nuts woooooooooooooo
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 10:37:24 pm
Like to point out what my choices were there J, if I am town? I agree with your quick analysis if I were Mafia. But your insinuation is that I would've done differently as town.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Robz888 on June 03, 2012, 10:38:08 pm
My views:

Possibility 1: Galzria is mafia (30%)
He tried the self-vote-zomg-I'm-insane-route to try to deflect voters
Possibility 2: Galzria is vanilla townie (65%)
He honestly believes townie lynch is better than no lynch. He thinks me and J are mafia partners and that him dying will lead to our lynchings, good for the town. Problem: Me and J aren't mafia partners
Possibility 3: Galzria is a power role
We're f*****

Essentially, this is correct analysis to me.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 10:39:06 pm
Tell you what I see. J's sweating things slipping away when a townie was SO CLOSE.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Captain_Frisk on June 03, 2012, 10:40:18 pm
All right folks - any chance of having some discussion of where we go from here?  I know we theoretically have 4.5 hours, but those of us on Eastern time have things like jobs in the morning - and if I'm going to stay up until 3 am, I'd like to have a better excuse than "I was hitting F5 on my browser waiting to see if someone would get lynched"
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 10:40:33 pm
Tell you what I see. J's sweating things slipping away when a townie was SO CLOSE.

me too though, Right? i must be glad my mafia partner just barely didn't get lynched, partially due to my campaigning against it.

Robz must be so proud of - oops, crap.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: eHalcyon on June 03, 2012, 10:41:34 pm
@C.F. Because I honestly don't enjoy being myself (conviction to the point of stubbornness), being begged by everybody to concede SOME, doing so, and then being attacked for it. Wrong of me? Sure. But I was pissed about that. I also unvoted very shortly after that, and (if) I die now, at least I do so with my vote where it belongs: beside my convictions I never should've left.

Aside: you could cool off a bit by making a post over in the Resistance thread.  It's nice and chill in there. :P

Haven't reviewed yet, but I will soon.  I think we might end up in no lynch.  I don't think no lynch is THAT terrible.  The scenario you gave is extremely simplified, not counting in the possible effects of power roles.  Not only that, but if we end up no-lynching twice it offsets the issue you presented, doesn't it?

Possibility 3: Galzria is a power role
We're f*****

Maybe he survives and pulls a TINAS-style SUPER COP.  I would seriously love that.
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Galzria on June 03, 2012, 10:42:05 pm
Tell you what I see. J's sweating things slipping away when a townie was SO CLOSE.

me too though, Right? i must be glad my mafia partner just barely didn't get lynched, partially due to my campaigning against it.

Robz must be so proud of - oops, crap.

Huh?
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: O on June 03, 2012, 10:42:50 pm
All right folks - any chance of having some discussion of where we go from here?  I know we theoretically have 4.5 hours, but those of us on Eastern time have things like jobs in the morning - and if I'm going to stay up until 3 am, I'd like to have a better excuse than "I was hitting F5 on my browser waiting to see if someone would get lynched"

I think we have to lynch Galzria. Either he's mafia, or he's townie and I broke him (sorry!)
Title: Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY
Post by: Dsell on June 03, 2012, 10:43:14 pm