Dominion Strategy Forum
Miscellaneous => Forum Games => Mafia Game Threads => Topic started by: Axxle on May 13, 2012, 02:59:02 am
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Alive:
Robz888
jotheonah
Galzria
Voltgloss
Dead:
Morgrim7 - Town Vanilla Lynched Day 1
Tables - Town Cop Killed Night 1
Kuildeous - Town Vanilla Lynched Day 2
bozzball - Town Vanilla Killed Night 2
Insomniac - Town Vanilla Lynched Day 3
Mafia Ruleset (blatantly stolen from my mafiascum game)
Game Rules:
General Gameplay and Etiquette:
1. You may not quote private Moderator-supplied information (either real or fabricated) of any kind. Paraphrasing (for role claims, etc.) is acceptable.
2. There is to be NO personal communication outside of the forum postings unless your role PM specifically allows it. Mafia members may communicate at night and during the confirmation stage.
3. If you have a role with a Night action your choices are due to me by the posted deadline. If I do not receive your choice via PM by the posted deadline you will forfeit your actions. In case of multiple submissions, the last valid one before the deadline will be used.
4. Roles with Night actions will not be able to submit an action on Night 0 (i.e. during the confirmation stage).
5. Any player with a Night action may instead submit a “No Action” PM to let the Mod know that you do not want to perform your expected action that Night phase.
6. As a general rule you should aim for one post every 48 hours, minimum, to keep the game moving.
Voting, Deadlines, and Player Death:
1. A simple majority (rounded up) of all living members must agree on one person for a lynch to occur prior to deadline.
2. Once you have reached a simple majority no further unvoting will change someone’s fate. Further votes will also be ignored.
3. Once a player is lynched the game enters twilight until I post a death scene; all players including the one who was lynched may continue to post during twilight.
4. Please submit votes as: Vote: PlayerName. Votes will NOT be counted if they are not bold! Obvious abbreviations or nicknames will be counted so long as they are unambiguous.
5. Please submit vote revocations as either Unvote: PlayerName or Unvote. Unvotes are not necessary before changing votes.
6. You may Vote: No Lynch - a simple majority of these vote types are required to send the game to Night phase without a lynch.
7. This game will have 2 week deadlines. If a player or No Lynch does not have a simple majority at deadline, no lynch will occur, and the game will go into night.
8. Once you are killed (either via lynch or night kill) you may no longer post. This means that you do not even get a “Bah” post. The dead in this game are silent.
9. Do not edit or delete posts. We don't want some players having more information than others. If you want to clarify posts, feel free to double post.
Miscellaneous/Mechanics:
1. Bold, blue text is reserved for the Mod. No invisible/small text is allowed, nor is cryptography.
2. If you have an issue/problem with the game, please PM the Mod privately. Do not post issues/complaints in the game thread.
3. The Mod may make mistakes - please point out any mistakes gently. Mistakes will be corrected where possible, but sometimes mistakes are made that cannot be reversed. These will stand as final to be commiserated over after the game.
4. Please bold all requests to the Mod so that they don’t get missed.
5. Prods of missing players will be issued automatically after 72 hours of no activity or upon request after 48 hours of no activity. A prodded player has 48 hours to respond or risks replacement. A player who has been prodded 3 times is subject to replacement without further notice.
6. Rule violations will be dealt with according to their severity, up to and including a Modkill.
7. If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 48-hour period please post a notice to that effect in the thread. Treat this game as a commitment. Be considerate – don’t leave us hanging.
The Golden Rule:
Please remember that this is a game and your main objective is to have fun! Be considerate of each other, don’t get personal, and enjoy the game.
Helpful Links:
- Main Wiki Page (http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page)
- Newbie Guide (http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Newbie_Guide)
- Frequently Asked Questions (http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=FAQ)
- Commonly Used Abbreviations (http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Commonly_used_abbreviations)
- Mafia Theory (http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Theory)
Game Setup
Game Setup information:
The setup used for this newbie game is one of the ones given below. The setup is randomly determined, but is one of the 6 given here:
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Doctor.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Doctor, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Doctor.
There will always be two mafia players and seven town players.
Here are all the role PMs that can be in the game:
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Mafia Goon
Welcome to Mafia II!
You are a Mafia, a Mafia Goon.
Your partner is __________, a Mafia Rolecop. You make speak with them during the pre-game and during the night phases.
(Any other communication outside of the thread with any other players is prohibited.)
Each night, you or your partner may send me the name of a player you would like to kill.
You win if the Mafia comprise at least half the town, or if nothing can prevent the same from happening.
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Mafia Rolecop
Welcome to Mafia II!
You are a Mafia, a Mafia Rolecop.
Your partner is __________, a Mafia Goon. You make speak with them during the pre-game and during the night phases.
(Any other communication outside of the thread with any other players is prohibited.)
Each night, you or your partner may send me the name of a player you would like to kill.
Each night, you may also send me the name of a fellow player. You will be told their role name.
You win if the Mafia comprise at least half the town, or if nothing can prevent the same from happening.
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Town Doc
Welcome to Mafia II!
You are a Townie, a Town Doc.
Each night, you may send me the name of a fellow player. You will protect that player from death.
You win when all of the Mafia are dead.
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Town Cop
Welcome to Mafia II!
You are a Townie, a Town Cop.
Each night, you may send me the name of a fellow player. You will be informed if that player is town or mafia.
You win when all of the Mafia are dead.
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Town Jailkeeper
Welcome to Mafia II!
You are a Townie, a Town Jailkeeper.
Each night, you may send me the name of a fellow player. That player will be protected from death, and will perform no night actions.
You win when all of the Mafia are dead.
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Town Vanilla
Welcome to Mafia II!
You are a Townie, a Vanilla Townie.
You win when all of the Mafia are dead.
TO CLARIFY, I AM NOT A MODERATOR OF F.DS IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM. IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS GAME, I AM MODERATING THAT THE RULES ARE FOLLOWED AND HIDDEN ACTIONS ARE COMPLETED PROPERLY.
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Feel free to respond in this thread if you're interested in playing. Priority will be given to players who expressed interest in Mafia I and aren't currently in that game.
I sort of set up the rules already using a game that I'm already in as a baseline. If anyone else has suggestions for another type of Mafia game they'd like to play then let me know. (eg. different roles, different duration, different player count)
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Hello! I would love to play. However, I am also in the other Mafia game, so I can totally understand not wanting me here. Up to you, either way!
FLAG-33792
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As the person who missed the first game and asked if anyone else wanted to host another game... I think I'm in.
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I am in. For sure.
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I want to play! I expressed interest in the branched from Monopoly forum and then missed the other one starting (seemed like it happened fast!). Anyway, evidence abounds that I am on this forum ALL THE TIME and have lots of time on my hands.
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I am in.
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Oh, what the heck. Haven't played before, but certainly looks exciting. I have experience with poker, so maybe that'll help...?
Anyway, I'm in.
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Id like to jump in on this
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Id like to jump in on this
I also haven't played before if that makes a difference
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Id like to jump in on this
I also haven't played before if that makes a difference
Nither have I, but there is a first time for everything, right? And after reading the instructions and the firse Mafia, I understand pretty well.
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7 so far. Don't worry if you haven't played before, the actual rules are straightforward, and everyone is a noob at some point :)
check out http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2540.0 if you want a rundown of the rules. If you have any questions feel free to ask.
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I think... yes. I'd like to join in on this. Reading the Mafia I thread is great fun in and of itself.
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Someone join soon!!! I am excited to start this. ;)
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This sounds intriguing. I'd like to get in.
If I'm too late, then maybe I can try my hand at Mafia 3. I'll have to read the first thread and get an idea of what's happening.
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I think... yes. I'd like to join in on this. Reading the Mafia I thread is great fun in and of itself.
I agree. It's so hard not to chime in with thoughts of my own in the first thread. ;)
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That's 9 players, and we're off! (I'll get the PM's to you soon)
Robz888
Tables
Morgrim7
jotheonah
bozzball
Galzria
Insomniac
Voltgloss
Kuildeous
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You can confirm that you've gotten your roles, but please wait a few hours to discuss the game so that the Mafia can have a little time to talk between themselves. I'll let you know when you can start.
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Just to clarify how the pregame works: The mafia has some time to discuss strategy. The mafia does not get a start kill and roles don't get to do their night action.
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Although 3 hours isn't that long for the Mafia to get in contact with each other and formulate a plan, I think we'll just start while people are still excited. So you guys know how wonderfully creative I am here's the introduction (I thought it up entirely on my own. No need to praise me.):
Everyone was happily piling up things in their Garden filled kingdom - a week ago Axxle popsofctown acquired a Duchy to the north, and brought a cute Duchess back to his home in the Gardens (he claims her Duke is dead, we like to believe him). They enjoyed long walks through the beautiful foliage and throwing Coppers into the fountains and making wishes. But this morning, the Duchess came screaming out of the house. She had been widowed again, Axxle popsofctown lay dead in the floor of their house, a knife in his back. It is sad, but his spirit still guides us all.
Day 1 has begun.
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She had been widowed again, Axxle popsofctown lay dead in the floor of their house, a knife in his back.
Ooh, so the Duchess is single now? *slicks hair back*
What? Too soon?
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She had been widowed again, Axxle popsofctown lay dead in the floor of their house, a knife in his back.
Ooh, so the Duchess is single now? *slicks hair back*
What? Too soon?
Boy, you don't waste time showing motive! ;) Not that I can blame you. She is a dooooozy!
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She had been widowed again, Axxle popsofctown lay dead in the floor of their house, a knife in his back.
Ooh, so the Duchess is single now? *slicks hair back*
What? Too soon?
Boy, you don't waste time showing motive! ;) Not that I can blame you. She is a dooooozy!
Ah, but which is more suspicious? To make a comical comment about the "initial killing"... or to jump on that comment right away and describe it as "showing motive?" My two coppers are on the latter, but I'd like to hear your rebuttal, Galzria (and the thoughts of others as well).
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Ah, but which is more suspicious? To make a comical comment about the "initial killing"... or to jump on that comment right away and describe it as "showing motive?" My two coppers are on the latter, but I'd like to hear your rebuttal, Galzria (and the thoughts of others as well).
[/quote]
Only if the latter comment was said with a straight face, and not meant to be comical as well.
Besides, the last known owner of "copper" was newly dead Axxle. Care to explain how you came into possession of them?
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Ah, but which is more suspicious? To make a comical comment about the "initial killing"... or to jump on that comment right away and describe it as "showing motive?" My two coppers are on the latter, but I'd like to hear your rebuttal, Galzria (and the thoughts of others as well).
Only if the latter comment was said with a straight face, and not meant to be comical as well.
Besides, the last known owner of "copper" was newly dead Axxle. Care to explain how you came into possession of them?
[/quote]Yes, Axxle had two Coppers that he bought the Duchess with. Wait, no, he gained it when he bought the Duchy.
But he had to buy the Duchy...
I think it was the Duchess. Maybe se liked the Duke better, and she plans to run away to the city where she can marry the Duke and live happily ever after.
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Ah, but which is more suspicious? To make a comical comment about the "initial killing"... or to jump on that comment right away and describe it as "showing motive?" My two coppers are on the latter, but I'd like to hear your rebuttal, Galzria (and the thoughts of others as well).
Only if the latter comment was said with a straight face, and not meant to be comical as well.
Besides, the last known owner of "copper" was newly dead Axxle. Care to explain how you came into possession of them?
Yes, Axxle had two Coppers that he bought the Duchess with. Wait, no, he gained it when he bought the Duchy.
But he had to buy the Duchy...
I think it was the Duchess. Maybe se liked the Duke better, and she plans to run away to the city where she can marry the Duke and live happily ever after.
See? Maybe it's just that you're a fellow solo-challenge hoster, but I hold no suspicions of you. You're too nice to be a Mafia.
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Now, (since I can't edit this into my last post...), where is the rest of town? Let's hear some more chatter.
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Hello, everyone! I am very excited to be involved in another Mafia game. Seriously in love with Mafia, here.
Morgrim... I've been trying to place your name. I think I have it. Are you named after the evil wolf in Neverending Story? The one who Atreyu kills in a grotto by the sea coast?
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Who would want the duchess now? No one wants her for free, seems to me the murderer must have had another motive!
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Hello, everyone! I am very excited to be involved in another Mafia game. Seriously in love with Mafia, here.
Morgrim... I've been trying to place your name. I think I have it. Are you named after the evil wolf in Neverending Story? The one who Atreyu kills in a grotto by the sea coast?
No, but you are getting close with wolf...
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Hello, everyone! I am very excited to be involved in another Mafia game. Seriously in love with Mafia, here.
Morgrim... I've been trying to place your name. I think I have it. Are you named after the evil wolf in Neverending Story? The one who Atreyu kills in a grotto by the sea coast?
No, but you are getting close with wolf...
But not the evil part? Curious and curiouser!
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Who would want the duchess now? No one wants her for free, seems to me the murderer must have had another motive!
Like I said. It is the Duchess. Of course nobody wants her for freebecause Duchess is a horrible cardexcept for the Duke.He would take her for free. That would mean he gets a Duchy, one more VP under his belt, and the love of his life in one neat little package. Who wouldn't go for that? For just 5 Coppers?
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Nevermind. I was thinking of Gmork... Suspicious!!! (Not really).
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Hello, everyone! I am very excited to be involved in another Mafia game. Seriously in love with Mafia, here.
Morgrim... I've been trying to place your name. I think I have it. Are you named after the evil wolf in Neverending Story? The one who Atreyu kills in a grotto by the sea coast?
No, but you are getting close with wolf...
But not the evil part? Curious and curiouser!
Well, I guess the character was evil...
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So I was sitting in the town chapel where many of the townies including myself were grieving over the loss of Axxle. Considering why there is a trash bin with a sign saying "Throw your sins in here". and it became clear to me I haven't seen Tables, jotheonah, or bozzball since the incident happened. Thoughts to ponder!
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So I was sitting in the town chapel where many of the townies including myself were grieving over the loss of Axxle. Considering why there is a trash bin with a sign saying "Throw your sins in here". and it became clear to me I haven't seen Tables, jotheonah, or bozzball since the incident happened. Thoughts to ponder!
Hmmm....
A while ago I was visiting the Trading Post and the man there gave me a discount on my Curse and Copper that the Mountebank had sold me. We got to talking about the recent murder, and he said that he hadn't hear from Tables, jotheonah, or bozzball lately...
Yes, this is another post asking for more comment.
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I too would appreciate more comments, though I haven't commented all that much either. And I have to go dark for a couple hours. I accuse all of you! All of you! Defend yourselves!
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Everyone is jokingly accused and the down becomes made of ghosts. Either that or some evil unleashed the hells upon the world and I'm posting this while installing...
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Everyone is jokingly accused and the down becomes made of ghosts. Either that or some evil unleashed the hells upon the world and I'm posting this while installing...
TOWN
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Down made of ghosts sounds very soft.
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Sorry if I'm asking a stupid question here, but how are we supposed to choose a suspect? Should we all name a $4 card? I name Salvager. But how's this supposed to help?
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So I was sitting in the town chapel where many of the townies including myself were grieving over the loss of Axxle. Considering why there is a trash bin with a sign saying "Throw your sins in here". and it became clear to me I haven't seen Tables, jotheonah, or bozzball since the incident happened. Thoughts to ponder!
I have an alibi! I was meeting with some Horse Traders on the Wharf when it went down. I have a Trusty Steed in my Stables who I didn't have yesterday, so that should corroborate my story. Unfortunately, the Traders' Merchant Ship has already departed.
Quote from: Insomniac on May 14, 2012, 09:56:38 pm
Who would want the duchess now? No one wants her for free, seems to me the murderer must have had another motive!
Like I said. It is the Duchess. Of course nobody wants her for freebecause Duchess is a horrible cardexcept for the Duke. He would take her for free. That would mean he gets a Duchy, one more VP under his belt, and the love of his life in one neat little package. Who wouldn't go for that? For just 5 Coppers?
So the question before us is this: Who in town is secretly a Duke? Someone who can afford down made of ghosts perhaps??
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And in case you all would prefer an IRL alibi (though I'm digging the Dominion talk) I spent the day sightseeing and hanging out in Chicago and was so tired I went right to bed when I got home. And then I woke up at like 4 am with crippling insomnia and came here. In the future I won't be posting at this weird time probably. And now I really am going back to bed.
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In the interest of stimulating discussion, though, I will point out that we've heard nothing from Kildeous since he made a move on the Duchess, right out of the gate, while Axxle's body was not even cold.
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Good morning people.
Could it really be that there was a murder, here? Of all the evil, wicked... Perhaps Axxle and the other nobles have made a fool of us, but murder, that's really a bit extreme.
Now, I think it's far too early to be finger pointing based on who's been here taking or not. The murder was only 9 1/2 hours ago, and I for one went to bed just before it happened, and so have had no chance to start the discussions yet. I think it's most likely though that someone's Minion is to blame for this, perhaps even multiple minions, sent out in succession, some to collect money, some to... kill. But whose Minion was it? Maybe we should enlist the help of a Spy to try and find out, or perhaps we should focusing on preventing future murders by building a Moat, or a Watchtower, or... I don't know.
With so little to go on right now, all I can say is that bozzball's contributions so far have seemed the least useful. Suspicious? Probably not. Worth discussing? Well, unless we can think of something better to discuss...
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It's true, I tend not to say very useful stuff. Mathematician, you see.
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In the interest of stimulating discussion, though, I will point out that we've heard nothing from Kildeous since he made a move on the Duchess, right out of the gate, while Axxle's body was not even cold.
Hey, I haven't made a move on her yet. I was just feeling things out.
But if it's in poor taste, I'll let her grieve.
So, what is the waiting period for a widowed duchess? Like 3 days?
Boy, show an interest in a widow, and people go all Hamlet on you.
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It's true, I tend not to say very useful stuff. Mathematician, you see.
But surely you can harness the power of maths to help us catch the killer?
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noooes.. I am away for forums for 2 days and I miss an awesome game to sign up for. :'(
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Boy, show an interest in a widow, and people go all Hamlet on you.
BTW, including a Dominion card in that last post was pure happenstance, but since it happened, BWAHAHA.
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Interesting discussion so far. Seems innocuous enough... what with all the Dominion references and in-jokes... but I've seen a few things that raise my eyebrow, and my suspicions.
Galzria's comment that he "holds no suspicions" of Morgrim because he is "too nice to be mafia" strikes me as odd. At this early stage, we WANT to be casting suspicions on each other to draw out information. Publicly declaring another to be non-scum based on something outside the confines of Mafia (being a "fellow solo-challenge hoster") strikes me as slightly counterproductive at best, and a shady mafia move at worst. On the other hand, Galzria did invite more chatter from the rest of the town... but in a second post right after his first. Perhaps realizing he needed to cover himself? Would like to hear Galzria's and others' thoughts.
Robz888 posted in Mafia I that he likes to come out of the gate with "guns blazing," i.e., throwing accusations around to get people to react/respond. Which I suppose is why he posted that he "accuse(s) all of [us]" and asked us to defend ourselves. But... if you accuse everyone, that's not exactly motivating any single person to respond, now is it? Far less productive than accusing a single person or a couple of people... which is exactly what Robz888 did in Mafia I. Why is he being LESS accusatory here?
bozzball offered his RL occupation as a reason why he "tend(s) not to say very useful stuff." Now, perhaps that's just an innocent joke, on the whole Mathematician's Answer idea. ("Is it raining outside, or has it cleared up?" "Yes.") But on the other hand, perhaps that's a pretextual excuse given as an attempt to make us accept bozzball's not being very helpful, when in fact he has an ulterior motive to be unhelpful?
That's where my suspicions currently lie. How's everyone else feel?
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I feel it's too early to have any real idea. Do people normally have a good feel for these things before the first night-period? (First game of mafia, so apologies if I'm doing the Mafia equivalent of Village Idiot here)
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I think we're all being pretty nice so far. Overall, this is a more timid, convivial group than Mafia I, which means (A) we're going to be an ineffectual lynch mob, at least at first, and (B) anyone who does try to be more aggressive is going to be painting two targets on their head - To the town they'll look like they're trying to force a bad lynch to help the mafia and to the mafia they'll be a target because they'll look like the person in the village who can get things done. So that will drive us to continue being nice, which of course, only helps the mafia.
On the other hand, no one's forcing us to kill anyone before the first night period. I for one will vote No Lynch unless someone gives me something more compelling than what I've seen so far.
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Re: Voltgloss's suggestions.
Galzria - not convinced. I think it's just a symptom of what I said before bout us being too new and therefore too nice.
Robz888 Yeah, that IS a suspicious disconnect and I'd like to her a defense of it. Maybe he just doesn't want to get kicked out early of BOTH his games so he's hedging his bets?
I'm inclined to think bozzball = actual newbie (as am I, no worries) rather than mafia master playing dumb. But playing dumb about how the game is played is a pretty nice cover for things like being quiet and doing suspicious things. I think we should be watching carefully for him to do something out of character that either proves him (A) not a newbie or (B) not a mathematician.
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I think we're all being pretty nice so far. Overall, this is a more timid, convivial group than Mafia I, which means (A) we're going to be an ineffectual lynch mob, at least at first, and (B) anyone who does try to be more aggressive is going to be painting two targets on their head - To the town they'll look like they're trying to force a bad lynch to help the mafia and to the mafia they'll be a target because they'll look like the person in the village who can get things done. So that will drive us to continue being nice, which of course, only helps the mafia.
On the other hand, no one's forcing us to kill anyone before the first night period. I for one will vote No Lynch unless someone gives me something more compelling than what I've seen so far.
True. I think it would be better if there was No Lynch, as it would just be some random name. Lets wait until we find more info. about eachother.
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On the note of more info.
It occurs to me that bozzball revealed his profession (?) to us, which gives us the beginnings of an inkling about his character. Perhaps it wouldn't hurt for us all to share that piece of info? I'm the opposite of a numbers person, all about words. Journalism is my field. I admire mathy folks but my aptitude for it is ... not good.
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The "no lynch" idea bothers me quite a bit. Because as near as I can tell, a vote for "no lynch" is, in effect (if not necessarily by its proponents' design), a vote for the Mafia.
There are 9 of us right now, 2 of whom are Mafia. What happens if we lynch randomly? This:
- Day 1: we lynch someone. 2/9 chance of hitting Mafia. Say we miss.
- Night 1: the Mafia kills someone.
- Day 2: 7 of us left, 2 are Mafia. We lynch someone, with 2/7 success rate. Say we miss again.
- Night 2: the Mafia kills someone.
- Day 3: 5 of us left, 2 are Mafia. We absolutely must lynch a Mafia person this round, or we lose. We have a 2/5 chance of randomly succeeding at that.
Now, what happens if we go "no lynch" this round?
- Day 1: nothing happens.
- Night 1: the Mafia kills someone.
- Day 2: 8 of us left, 2 are Mafia. We lynch someone, with 2/8 success rate. Say we miss.
- Night 2: the Mafia kills someone.
- Day 3: 6 of us left, 2 are Mafia. We lynch someone, with 2/6 success rate. And we need to guess right. Why? Because if we miss...
- Night 3: ...the Mafia kills someone...
- Day 4: ...and there are 4 of us left, 2 Mafia, and the Mafia has won because there is no way to lynch them by majority vote anymore.
The upshot: if we lynch someone today, we get (at minimum) three chances to lynch Mafia before we lose the game. If we DON'T lynch someone today, we get only TWO chances to strike Mafia, and with less odds of success.
Now, math is not my field either, so I am interested to hear bozzball's (and other math-oriented folks') thoughts on this. But from this (admittedly cursory) analysis, it seems to me that a "no lynch" vote this day does nothing but hurt the town.
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But that analysis is based on the vote always being (essentially) random. I don't know if that bears out. Consider: The first night vote has a worse than 2/9 chance of hitting Mafia, because the 2 Mafia won't vote for themselves or each other. In fact, they can communicate, so they may well vote for the same person. So a non-mafia town member will get at least 2 votes in the first round lynching. That means the 7 of us who aren't in the mafia have an above-average chance of lynching an innocent.
From Day 2 onward, we have a better than 2/#of survivors chance of hitting the mafia because our votes are informed by actual events and information.
So, if we lynch someone today we get a minimum of three chances, but one of them is highly likely to help the mafia and hurt the town. If we don't, we get two chances, but they're chances that favor us more.
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Voltgloss's point makes sense, but he is now a suspect. Voltgloss, my hats off to you (if you are not Mafia) for sacrificing your innocence for giving us good info.
On the other hand, we are being much too quiet here. I accuse Galzria, for calling me nice, and (athough that may be true 8).) that is suspicious. To add to the suspicion, he has mysteriously disappeared since.
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Don't get me wrong, I like a good torch-and-pitchfork mob as much as the next red-blooded American. Just not until I have some inkling of which way to point it.
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I like jotheonah's point, but you, sir, could very well be mafia yourself... so could I...
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So, if we lynch someone today we get a minimum of three chances, but one of them is highly likely to help the mafia and hurt the town. If we don't, we get two chances, but they're chances that favor us more.
I understand our chances of randomly hitting Mafia on Day 1 are low. My point is that, by failing to lynch anyone this day, we reduce our chances of hitting Mafia on Days 2 and 3.
Compare:
Lynch on Day 1 (variant "A"):
- Day 1A. 2 Mafia out of 9 players.
- Day 2A. 2 Mafia out of 7 players.
- Day 3A. 2 Mafia out of 5 players.
No lynch on Day 1 (variant "B"):
- Day 1B. No lynch.
- Day 2B. 2 Mafia out of 8 players.
- Day 3B. 2 Mafia out of 6 players.
Our chance of hitting Mafia on Day 2A is greater than our chance of hitting Mafia on Day 2B. Similarly, our chance of hitting Mafia on Day 3A is greater than our chance of hitting Mafia on Day 3B.
Morgrim, I don't see myself as sacrificing innocence at all, or maybe I'm not understanding your remark correctly? I'm trying to stimulate discussion and action. jotheonah himself posted that us being nice is essentially handing the win to the mafia. Curiously though, he then followed up with that by proposing "no lynch" - the epitome of niceness, and (as I'm asserting) also the epitome of handing the win to the Mafia.
I also have a separate question for those who have said "we should wait until we get more info": What additional info are you hoping to get, and how are you expecting to get it?
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So, if we lynch someone today we get a minimum of three chances, but one of them is highly likely to help the mafia and hurt the town. If we don't, we get two chances, but they're chances that favor us more.
I understand our chances of randomly hitting Mafia on Day 1 are low. My point is that, by failing to lynch anyone this day, we reduce our chances of hitting Mafia on Days 2 and 3.
Compare:
Lynch on Day 1 (variant "A"):
- Day 1A. 2 Mafia out of 9 players.
- Day 2A. 2 Mafia out of 7 players.
- Day 3A. 2 Mafia out of 5 players.
No lynch on Day 1 (variant "B"):
- Day 1B. No lynch.
- Day 2B. 2 Mafia out of 8 players.
- Day 3B. 2 Mafia out of 6 players.
Our chance of hitting Mafia on Day 2A is greater than our chance of hitting Mafia on Day 2B. Similarly, our chance of hitting Mafia on Day 3A is greater than our chance of hitting Mafia on Day 3B.
Morgrim, I don't see myself as sacrificing innocence at all, or maybe I'm not understanding your remark correctly? I'm trying to stimulate discussion and action. jotheonah himself posted that us being nice is essentially handing the win to the mafia. Curiously though, he then followed up with that by proposing "no lynch" - the epitome of niceness, and (as I'm asserting) also the epitome of handing the win to the Mafia.
I also have a separate question for those who have said "we should wait until we get more info": What additional info are you hoping to get, and how are you expecting to get it?
Question #1: I will not answer this question, the answer could turn out to be a dangerous peice of info.
Question #2: ditto
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This sudden talk of no lynching is too abrubt and a bad move. If we no lynch now, we might as well no lynch tomorrow, as we'll be at what's called 'mislynch or lose' later anyway (that is, we can no lynch and survive, but if we mislynch, we lose - the best move in that situation is generally to no lynch, to eliminate one more potential suspect). And then we lose our best weapon for two whole days, and let the mafia whittle our numbers, potentially hitting our power role(s) in the process. Especially when you consider, we have 13 1/2 more days for discussion and finding information, 2 out of the necessary 5 votes to hammer on the last minute desperate option is... a little worrisome.
So now, I have two main suspects. Morgrim and Jothenah. Jotheonah being the main one, because he suggested it in the first place.
So for the time being I'm placing my vote square on Joth's head. Vote: Jotheonah
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Voltgloss, you make a compelling case. On the other hand, rooting for a kill without naming a suspect is a move that makes sense for the mafia - at this point they don't much care who we kill as long as it's not them, and they want to stay out of the spotlight as the one making all the accusations. But that's not how you've played up until now. You were quick enough to start pointing fingers.
Of course, another potential mafia tactic would be to set yourself up as the group's leader by being very vocal, thus giving yourself a position of safety in rounds to come.
Let's look back at Kildeous. The red flag he raises for me is that he's posting silly things, but not really engaging in the "who to kill" game, which is a nice way to be present without drawing any vote-worthy attention to yourself. Similar to bozzball's newbie feint, if it is a feint, which, as I said before, I kind of doubt, but who knows.
If I were Mafia, I would be doing something like that right now. After all, the Mafia doesn't care who we lynch as long as it's not them. So either staying out of the way and letting us make a kill without seeming to get involved is Aces for them.
Still suspicious of Robz888 until he says something else.
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Oh, and just to clarify: As no lynching today means we might as well no lynch on another day, that basically means the mafia gets a kill when we had a lynch: The mafia gets a chance to take out who they feel is the most useful person to the town, instead of the town getting a chance to take out the person they feel is most likely to be mafia. No lynching is most certainly a mafia-sided move, in this game.
The extra night phase for our power role(s) is of little consolation: The doctor and Jailkeeper don't get us information, just potentially stop a kill (Which might tell them something, but nothing certain - even the doc doesn't know if there was no kill because he saved the victim, or if there was also a JK). A cop does, but there's only a 50% chance of there even being one, AND he's more likely to die, AND the mafia get information just as quickly as he does (quicker, perhaps, as they have a smaller pool of targets).
So in short, we absolutely do not want to no lynch today, unless we get to the 13th day and still have no reasonably suspicions. And that's pretty unlikely.
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Finally (really should work out everything I want to say before posting), I did a quick sleuth on google, it doesn't look like anyone called Bozzball has ever played in a mafia game before. Making a new username for a forum game of mafia is slightly extreme, especially as he didn't know if he would be mafia or not (and if he's not, why bother at all?)
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Of course, Tables' comment now makes me look like I'm about-facing to keep from being lynched, so it's probably time for me to defend myself.
The no lynch suggestion was hardly sudden. I was mainly articulating what the group already seemed to be saying - and I also felt information could be gained from who reacted strongly against it, given that a random lynch is definitely what the mafia wants. I hate to turn it back around and accuse Tables, but he and Voltgloss are the two who reacted the most vitriolically to the idea of no kill, and while Voltgloss's reaction was reasoned and calm, I'll let Tables' tone speak for itself.
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And now I have to go, won't be back until probably after midnight EST. Hopefully I won't miss voting time.
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Because so many points have been made on why no lynch is a bad idea, I feel compelled to vote. My suspects are
Robz888
Galzria
But for.right now, my Vote: Galzria
Also, it would be nice to know why Tables suspects me...
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Mafia is a game of accusations and information, and the two go hand in hand. I tend to be very aggressive when it comes to accusations, and doing what the town should be doing: Using their votes as a weapon against the people who they're most suspicious of. OMGUSing me for agressively rebuking an anti-town strategy... well, you should probably put the shovel away for a bit.
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Morgrim: For agreeing with NL as a good option.
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Wow. I go and try to get a *little* sleep after such a disturbing event here, and look what I've missed. I'll try my best to respond in order, but I post from a phone at the moment, which handles text fields poorly:
Morgrim:
Last time I call anybody nice! :P I'm as new as many others, and have watched how quickly Mafia I has spiraled into accusatory madness.
The Mafia, as pointed out, want as many kills as they can get early, and as quickly as possible. The more confusion, suspicion, and accusations that float around the more they live in safety. So yes, I was trying to harbor feelings of "niceness". Remember, a point-and-lynch system helps the Mafia 7/9 of the time. Given our position of power in numbers over them, I suggest we use it. Make them seem desperate to stir suspicion.
With that, I agree that nolynch is BAD. Nothing like twiddling your thumbs waiting to be killed. Maybe there's some strategy to it... But I can't see it.
Brief history of me: I went to school for Mathematics, before changing to Political Science, Journalism, then Television and Film. As I've already made a fool of myself in a much earlier thread re: Mathematics, you can get an idea for just how long it's been... (and why I changed...? ;P). I love sports (baseball mainly), and regularly compete in triathlons. I should just write up a mini bio in the intros board...
With that, Vote Voltglass because he is acting quite like I expect Mafia to, stirring everything up from everybody. I'm not saying that more information is bad (quite contrary), but let the Mafia make the mistakes. We own majority. We've got time.
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Voltgloss's argument seems to be deliberately ignoring the good-guy night roles and the chance they may have some useful impact. I am going to do some probabilistic analysis on each role, and come back to you with FACTS.
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The way I figure, if there are M mafiosi, 1 doctor and O others, then the only
way the doctor can be successful is if he and the mafiosi choose the same other.
There are O others, and the doctor has a probability of 1/(O+M) of choosing any
particular other, and the mafiosi have a probability of 1/(O+1) of choosing any
particular other.
Thus the probability of the doctor being successful (supposing both choose
uniformly at random) is O/(O+1)(O+M).
Now if we lynch no-one, the doctor will be successful with probability
6/56 = 0.107
If we lynch a random person, with probability 1/9, we will lynch the doctor
and he will not be successful tonight.
With probability 2/9, we lynch a mafioso, and increase the probability of the
doctor being successful to 6/49 = 0.122
Finally, with probability 6/9, we lynch a random, and the probability of the
doctor being successful becomes 5/42 = 0.119.
Overall, if we lynch a random person, the doctor will be successful with probability
(2/9 * 6/49) + (6/9 * 5/42) = 47/441 = 0.1065.
The doctor is less likely to be successful if we random-lynch by the tiny probability
of 1/1764. Also, there's only a probability of 1/2 that we HAVE a doctor.
Thus, ignore the doctor.
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Voltgloss's argument seems to be deliberately ignoring the good-guy night roles and the chance they may have some useful impact. I am going to do some probabilistic analysis on each role, and come back to you with FACTS.
I am all for this, as trying to incorporate the good-guy night roles is beyond my admittedly meager mathematics abilities. However, make sure you incorporate the bad-guy night role as well.
My main goal in disputing the "no lynch" suggestion was to change the two(?) votes for "no lynch" (I wasn't sure if Morgrim's counted as a vote). I was very concerned about the two Mafia folks (assuming they are not jotheonah/Morgrim) bandwagoning to "no lynch," with the help of one other unsuspecting townie, and thus shortcutting to Night 1 without us having a chance to fruitfully discuss things during Day 1.
Now that jotheonah and Morgrim's votes have changed, we have time to really dig into whether "no lynch" makes sense. I still maintain it doesn't, but am open to my mind being changed by a solid maths-based argument.
As for Galzria's vote against me for "stirring everything up"... well, yes, I am stirring things up, quite deliberately. I'm doing so in order to bait the Mafia into making mistakes. If everything is "nice" and complacent, the Mafia don't have any reason to put themselves out there. And it's when they put themselves out there that they make mistakes.
I also dispute this:
The more confusion, suspicion, and accusations that float around the more they live in safety.
...wouldn't it be the opposite, at least as to suspicion and accusations? The more those float around, the more likely they'll be directed towards Mafia, giving us an opportunity to glean information from their defenses that could confirm those suspicions?
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The way I figure, if there are M mafiosi, 1 sane cop and O others, the sane cop
will be successful if he chooses a mafioso, and the mafioso don't choose him. In
which case, the probability of him being successful is MO/(O+1)(O+M) - M times more
likely than the doctor.
Now if we lynch no-one, the sane cop will be successful with probability
12/56 = 0.214
If we lynch a random person, with probability 1/9, we will lynch the sane cop
and he will not be successful tonight.
With probability 2/9, we lynch a mafioso, and decrease the probability of the
sane cop being successful to 6/49 = 0.122
Finally, with probability 6/9, we lynch a random, and the probability of the
sane cop being successful becomes 10/42 = 0.238.
Overall, if we lynch a random person, the sane cop will be successful with probability
(2/9 * 6/49) + (6/9 * 10/42) = 82/441 = 0.1859.
The sane cop is less likely to be successful if we random-lynch by the small probability
of 25/882. Also, there's only a probability of 1/2 that we HAVE a sane cop.
Also a big chunk of that reduction comes from the case that we lynch a mafioso.
Thus, ignore the sane cop.
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Hey guys, wow! Activity! I will respond in a couple minutes.
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Voltglass:
I don't believe that to be the case. If everyone is suspicious of everyone, it becomes a lot harder to make a concrete case, and much easier to deflect. Still, as I'm new to this, my instinct may be wrong.
I still can't bring myself to unvote yet, because as I noted and you admitted, you are awfully aggressive, and that just doesn't sit right with me. Still, I an open to more talk/chatter/analysis.
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Let see some votes here.
I think my vote is staying where it is for now, but Voltgloss, Robz888, and jotheonah are still suspects.
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Can see no purpose in this content. Vote: Robz888
Hey guys, wow! Activity! I will respond in a couple minutes.
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Morgrim,, just to clarify, I'm your vote at the moment 'cause I said you were nice? ;) Well, I stand by reasonings, if not that particular declaration!
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bozzball: Your analysis, while accurate in the mathematical sense (generally the best kind of sense, but... maybe not here), is a little flawed in terms of the actual game.
Firstly is understanding the actual role interactions, which is kinda important. The doctor is extremely valuable, but only if there's someone good to protect. This could be a cleared townie, a cop claim, or otherwise someone very likely to be killed in absense of a doctor. In terms of random protection, doctors don't do much, occasionally saving someone, which kinda helps a little but less than you first think (as in this setup, it would probably lead to us wanting to no lynch pretty soon after - but the doctor can be more confident the person he saved was town. Not certain as there's a jailkeeper and the mafia might choose to no kill (very rare but possible)). The Jailkeeper I'm less familiar with, but he's probably a lot better than the Doctor - he can prevent a kill by choosing one of TWO people, which is double odds, and also might stop the mafia rolecop. However, he could also stop the doctor/cop, and unlike the doctor, he gets pretty much no information from his jailing.
The cop, on the other hand, doesn't need to hit a mafioso to be successful. Finding out someone is town can be helpful as well - less so, but still helpful. A cop can easily clear a player (or two) before his death, if he thinks he's going to be lynched, and that can be a big help. The doc/Jailkeeper should protect that player, and then the town has someone to unquestionably trust the next day. If that player was the doc/Jailkeeper, or there isn't one, that kinda sucks (bear in mind the mafia rolecop, which means the mafia pretty much knows everyone's roles by day 3), but otherwise, the cop is always useful if they find out information.
Rules question: Are roles revealed on death? If no, is alignment revealed on death? I presume yes to both, but it'd be useful to know.
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Oh my goodness, craziness taking place.
On comments that I am playing differently because I didn't come out of the gate swinging as hard as in the other game:
That's a fair observation. I'm actually glad to whoever made it. We have to be vigilant for suspicious things like that. I don't know if my explanation will satisfy you, but I did do a couple posts at the beginning to try to stir the pot, though not quite as strongly as last game... and then I went to sleep. And I just woke up. I am on Eastern Time. Generally available between noon and 5:00 PM, gone until midnight, back online until 3:00 AM, and up around noon. I'm a journalist, so that's my schedule.
On the no lynch vote:
Not a good idea, I don't think. If we were going to do this randomly, maybe it would make sense. But this isn't a random kill--whoever the mafia are, they are already giving themselves away with suspicious dialogue, or remaining suspiciously silent. We absolutely WILL NOT LYNCH THE SANE COP or whatever power roles the townies have. If a townie with a power role is about to be lynched they should come out and admit their role, and given that we believe them, we should change our votes. This is not a good situation, because the mafia learn who is who, but it's preferable to outright killing this person ourselves.
On those who proposed the no lynch vote:
You are probably the most suspicious people in my eyes. I am playing catchup here, but it looks like it was jotheonah and morgrim. I see that jotheonah proposed it, and morgrim quickly jumped on it, which is I think the more suspicious thing to do. So Morgrim would be my top choice right now, but it's far, far too early to be casting actual votes. We have plenty of time people, to listen to what everybody says, make an informed choice, and get a mafia this round. But yes, I suspect jotheonah and morgrim very much. And I am going to have to go over the posts again to see if I have missed anything.
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Rules question: Are roles revealed on death? If no, is alignment revealed on death? I presume yes to both, but it'd be useful to know.
Both the Alignment and Role will be revealed.
Vote Count 1-1
No Lynch (1) - jotheonah
Jotheonah (1) - Tables,
Galzria (1) - Morgrim7
Voltglass (1) - Galzria
Robz888 (1) - bozzball
Not Voting (4) - Robz888, Insomniac, Voltgloss, Kuildeous
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch
Deadline: Monday, May 28, 2012 6pm PDT
(please correct me if I'm wrong)
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Who here has played this game before?
How often does a mafioso get lynched on the first turn?
It just seems incredibly random.
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We learn alignment and role upon death? Interesting. Didn't know that.
I have played mafia quite a bit, but never online. In the games I play, we must kill someone every round. Yeah, we didn't play with the official rules, I guess.
I still think it doesn't make sense not to perform a kill. I mean, we are going to have the exact same dilemma next round. Our duty is to evaluate what people say and discover the mafia through their errors.
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Who here has played this game before?
How often does a mafioso get lynched on the first turn?
It just seems incredibly random.
I've played before in RL, not board-based.
In the last RL game I played, we lynched a mafioso in round 1 and the second mafioso in round 2. Not sure I should get into the specifics of how that was accomplished because I'd love to see the mafia in this game make the same mistakes as the mafia made in that game.
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Who here has played this game before?
How often does a mafioso get lynched on the first turn?
It just seems incredibly random.
My instinct says you're right. But snowball arguments help. Early on, there is going to be little to go on. If the first kill is revealed as innocent, the cases (small though they may be) instantly become stronger against the nonlynched suspicious people. It forces more defense, by them, and the Mafia, knowing they only need 2 extra votes will be more aggressive trying to push their advantage.
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I think we're all being pretty nice so far. Overall, this is a more timid, convivial group than Mafia I, which means (A) we're going to be an ineffectual lynch mob, at least at first, and (B) anyone who does try to be more aggressive is going to be painting two targets on their head - To the town they'll look like they're trying to force a bad lynch to help the mafia and to the mafia they'll be a target because they'll look like the person in the village who can get things done. So that will drive us to continue being nice, which of course, only helps the mafia.
On the other hand, no one's forcing us to kill anyone before the first night period. I for one will vote No Lynch unless someone gives me something more compelling than what I've seen so far.
True. I think it would be better if there was No Lynch, as it would just be some random name. Lets wait until we find more info. about eachother.
Let's not wait, let's find out more info about each other NOW, while we are all still alive, so we can get a mafia before they get one of us.
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Unvote
@Galzria, ALL IN GOOD FUN. In real life I do not accuse people when they call me nice. The reason I accused you was because you called me nice and thn disappeared. So, I change my vote.
I remain neutral until I see some more posts.
Suspects:
Voltgloss
jotheonah
Robz888
?Galzria
?bozzball
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Unvote
@Galzria, ALL IN GOOD FUN. In real life I do not accuse people when they call me nice. The reason I accused you was because you called me nice and thn disappeared. So, I change my vote.
I remain neutral until I see some more posts.
Suspects:
Voltgloss
jotheonah
Robz888
?Galzria
?bozzball
I say back down from your No Lynch vote and you back down? No conviction there? Easy on the bandwagon, easy off the bandwagon.
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Unvote
@Galzria, ALL IN GOOD FUN. In real life I do not accuse people when they call me nice. The reason I accused you was because you called me nice and thn disappeared. So, I change my vote.
I remain neutral until I see some more posts.
Suspects:
Voltgloss
jotheonah
Robz888
?Galzria
?bozzball
I say back down from your No Lynch vote and you back down? No conviction there? Easy on the bandwagon, easy off the bandwagon.
The reason I unvoted so quickly is because f all the posts stating why no lynching is a bad idea.
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I'm a little suspicious of bozzball. He was late to the party (I won't hold that against him really), but his quick vote of Robz888 for saying "Hey I'm here, let me get caught up"...
What was the point? Either he's trigger happy, which I'm not sure is good, or something else is going on.
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Would like to hear from the quiet ones: Insomniac and Kuildeous. Insomniac in particular was last on about an hour ago but said nothing - a bit odd, as the discussion was flying thick and fast then.
Kuildeous was last on early this morning (EDT) and so apparently hasn't had a chance to review most of the day's discussion.
Incidentally, I am EDT and usually on and periodically checking/posting during daylight hours (like now). Also typically get on to check in the evening (around 10 pm - 12 am or so). My usual "silent times" are around the 5 pm - 10 pm timeframe and the wee morning hours.
I say back down from your No Lynch vote and you back down? No conviction there? Easy on the bandwagon, easy off the bandwagon.
Robz888, Morgrim's unvote was cancelling his vote for Galzria. Not his vote for "no lynch." He already unvoted "no lynch" (by voting for Galzria instead) before you logged in for the day.
I'm a little suspicious of bozzball. He was late to the party (I won't hold that against him really), but his quick vote of Robz888 for saying "Hey I'm here, let me get caught up"...
What was the point? Either he's trigger happy, which I'm not sure is good, or something else is going on.
That struck me as odd too. That said, I'd like to see the rest of bozzball's mathematical analysis before weighing in more specifically.
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Robz888:
I'm back in the Morgrim is nice column - for completely arbitrary reasons (6/8 I'm right, right?) - for now...
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Robz888:
I'm back in the Morgrim is nice column - for completely arbitrary reasons (6/8 I'm right, right?) - for now...
What, now we have the Morgrim is nice and Morgrim is mafia columns? Wow.
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I'm a little suspicious of bozzball. He was late to the party (I won't hold that against him really), but his quick vote of Robz888 for saying "Hey I'm here, let me get caught up"...
What was the point? Either he's trigger happy, which I'm not sure is good, or something else is going on.
It just seemed suspicious to me. Why not wait to post when you are caught up?
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Well, if "nice" means "safe" means "townie" then I suppose so.
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Who here has played this game before?
How often does a mafioso get lynched on the first turn?
It just seems incredibly random.
I haven't played this exact setup before, but it's very rare to actually lynch a mafioso on the first day. HOWEVER the reason is that, when the town correctly identifies a mafioso, which happens reasonably often, he'll fakeclaim to avoid early death (town is generally unwilling to lynch a power role claim on day 1). This usually only saves him for a day or two, and it definitely helps the town to force a fakeclaim from mafia, but it does mean mafia themselves rarely get lynched day 1.
Robz: There's no 'proper' ruleset to mafia. Games range from the very serious to the very silly, with a huge variety of rules used in between. This game definitely rates highly on the serious scale (I'm used to very silly games - ones where everyone has a power role, things like two mafias aren't uncommon, 15-25 players (I've played one game with 35 players), and generally night actions determine the game).
Right, back to analysing the game. It's possible that Insomniac and Kuildeous didn't check this subforum when they were on, rather than avoiding posting at all (I've done it once already, but now the game's heating up, I'll probably be here often enough...). I'm actually not very suspicious of Bozzball. His story of being new checks out, and he definitely sounds like the new town type. So he's either a naturally good mafioso, or he's town. I'm leaning slightly towards the second. Still suspicious of Jotheon, but he hasn't been online, so that might not change until I see where he goes from here.
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I'm a little suspicious of bozzball. He was late to the party (I won't hold that against him really), but his quick vote of Robz888 for saying "Hey I'm here, let me get caught up"...
What was the point? Either he's trigger happy, which I'm not sure is good, or something else is going on.
It just seemed suspicious to me. Why not wait to post when you are caught up?
Because people jump to accuse at inactivity. Rightfully so, silence *cough* insomniac *cough* Kuildeous *cough* is a dead tell.
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Who here has played this game before?
How often does a mafioso get lynched on the first turn?
It just seems incredibly random.
I haven't played this exact setup before, but it's very rare to actually lynch a mafioso on the first day. HOWEVER the reason is that, when the town correctly identifies a mafioso, which happens reasonably often, he'll fakeclaim to avoid early death (town is generally unwilling to lynch a power role claim on day 1). This usually only saves him for a day or two, and it definitely helps the town to force a fakeclaim from mafia, but it does mean mafia themselves rarely get lynched day 1.
I should note that in the RL game I played where we lynched the mafia on days 1 and 2, there were NO power roles (completely vanilla game). So the fakeclaim option wasn't available.
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It's a lot more common in F2F to lynch correctly day 1, because of the way voting tends to work (by the time you know everyone is going to vote for you, you're dead).
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On the note of more info.
It occurs to me that bozzball revealed his profession (?) to us, which gives us the beginnings of an inkling about his character. Perhaps it wouldn't hurt for us all to share that piece of info? I'm the opposite of a numbers person, all about words. Journalism is my field. I admire mathy folks but my aptitude for it is ... not good.
Oh, i missed this earlier. I am a journalist, too!!!! I write about higher education for an online news site, and contribute to some newspapers, other sites, and magazines.
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But that analysis is based on the vote always being (essentially) random. I don't know if that bears out. Consider: The first night vote has a worse than 2/9 chance of hitting Mafia, because the 2 Mafia won't vote for themselves or each other. In fact, they can communicate, so they may well vote for the same person. So a non-mafia town member will get at least 2 votes in the first round lynching. That means the 7 of us who aren't in the mafia have an above-average chance of lynching an innocent.
From Day 2 onward, we have a better than 2/#of survivors chance of hitting the mafia because our votes are informed by actual events and information.
Not true. The "odds" don't change. We do not have a worse than 2/9 chance of hitting a mafia tonight; we have exactly a 2/9 chance. But we can beat the odds if we use our heads. And we can do that this very round, without sacrificing a chance to do so. It's true that the mafia have the advantage of coordination and the like, but... that's sort of just the nature of the game. We have to outthink them. And we can do that now.
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Sorry for being quiet. Been a bit crazy around here…and no, I wasn't burying bodies.
My first inclination was to vote for no lynch. I see the reasons why this is bad, though I am still concerned about the possibility of lynching the doctor or cop. These are helpful in rooting out the Mafia, as I understand it.
I hate the idea of killing off someone at random (especially if that someone is me!). Even after hearing the arguments, I fear that my "informed" vote will still seem random.
I'm off to not bury a body, but I should have a vote soon. I see the arguments against "no lynch." I don't like the idea of randomly lynching someone, but I suppose it must be done. I'm open to arguments, though.
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Can see no purpose in this content. Vote: Robz888
Hey guys, wow! Activity! I will respond in a couple minutes.
My lack of response up to that point had earned me a ton of suspicion, so I posted just to say that I was catching up on the thread and would weigh in soon. So, I think I had a valid purpose for writing that. So your vote strikes me as odd, though I wouldn't say suspicious.
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Sorry for being quiet. Been a bit crazy around here…and no, I wasn't burying bodies.
My first inclination was to vote for no lynch. I see the reasons why this is bad, though I am still concerned about the possibility of lynching the doctor or cop. These are helpful in rooting out the Mafia, as I understand it.
If we are careful, we won't kill the cop/doctor/jailkeeper. If a cop/doctor/jailkeeper has like, 3 or 4 votes, they should say "Stop, halt desist!" And explain. And we should immediately take back our vote. As I said before, this will be regrettable, because the mafia will have learned something, but it will be better than accidentally executing a power role townie. This is part of the reason I am scared to see votes flying everywhere. Let's have accusations flying, rather than votes. I don't want the cop to come back to his computer after a couple hours and find out "Oh crap I'm dead."
I hate the idea of killing off someone at random (especially if that someone is me!). Even after hearing the arguments, I fear that my "informed" vote will still seem random.
I'm off to not bury a body, but I should have a vote soon. I see the arguments against "no lynch." I don't like the idea of randomly lynching someone, but I suppose it must be done. I'm open to arguments, though.
Our lynch shouldn't be random, it should be the product of careful and deliberate consideration of everyone. Listening to people defend themselves is what will tell us who is acting suspiciously. To that end, I would like to hear morgrim defend his bandwagoning on the "no lynch" thing.
Oh, and if we absolutely positively have no idea who it is... I suppose there are worse things than no lynch. But we would have to be pretty depserately unsure who was mafia to do that, I think.
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I have not seen any talk as of late. It does not matter if the vote is random or not if we do not vote at all. Vote, people! For now, I guess I will Vote: Voltgloss.
On another note, Kuildeous and bozzball, who are your ssuspects.
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Sorry, scratch that. I meant Vote: Robz888. oops.
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Sorry, scratch that. I meant Vote: Robz888. oops.
It does nothing to deflect my suspicions that morgrim refuses to answer my questions about why he quickly bandwagoned "no lynch," how he could have possibly just voted for the wrong person, and why he abruptly switched to me after I've kept calling him out.
This strikes me as either foolishness, or transparently mafia play.
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I disagree slightly with Robz about voting. The thing is, people generally don't properly defend themselves until they think they could have their head on the chopping block, and that only happens as votes pile onto them. There is a chance of an early hammer, but that, on day 1, isn't a problem. We have regular vote totals, and if someone were to hammer to early, well, that's an obviously scummy thing to do. Enough that you'd probably get lynched the following day. It could happen accidentally, but not if people are paying attention.
Kuildeous' defence about No Lynch... doesn't strike me as suspicious. I can see where he's coming from, and I get more of a 'I don't want to lynch yet' rather than a 'let's waste the day yo' vibe from him. In this game, we only stand to lose by no lynching. We're better voting randomly than no lynching, as we might hit mafia, while the mafia will definitely hit town with their extra kill.
In fact, I'm beginning to get a bad vibe from Robz. The things he's chosen to respond to aren't exactly... the most relevant things he could have been picking out. Information, not analysis, type posts. Slightly worrying.
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I disagree slightly with Robz about voting. The thing is, people generally don't properly defend themselves until they think they could have their head on the chopping block, and that only happens as votes pile onto them. There is a chance of an early hammer, but that, on day 1, isn't a problem. We have regular vote totals, and if someone were to hammer to early, well, that's an obviously scummy thing to do. Enough that you'd probably get lynched the following day. It could happen accidentally, but not if people are paying attention.
I guess in my mind the difference between an accusation and a vote isn't much, except a vote could get us in trouble. I would expect people to respond to accusations, not just votes. But perhaps you're right.
Kuildeous' defence about No Lynch... doesn't strike
In fact, I'm beginning to get a bad vibe from Robz. The things he's chosen to respond to aren't exactly... the most relevant things he could have been picking out. Information, not analysis, type posts. Slightly worrying.
What are the relevant things? I don't mean this flippantly. I'm interested to know what things you think are relevant.
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Sorry, scratch that. I meant Vote: Robz888. oops.
It does nothing to deflect my suspicions that morgrim refuses to answer my questions about why he quickly bandwagoned "no lynch," how he could have possibly just voted for the wrong person, and why he abruptly switched to me after I've kept calling him out.
This strikes me as either foolishness, or transparently mafia play.
Look at my first post. Now.look at my second post. Now look at my first post again. What do you notice? My two posts are little more than five minutes apart. Given that I am a horrible typer, and that I am posting from a Kindle Touch, which has a horrible keypad, and that I am like a hawk on this thread and I have seen every post on this thread you have made aroud five minutes after you said it, was your final assumption at all fair?
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Hmm.
There is one player who:
- immediately after jotheonah proposed "no lynch," jumped on that bandwagon;
- immediately after the "no lynch" proponent (jotheonah) was countered by two dissents (myself and Tables), jumped off the "no lynch" bandwagon;
- was the only person who responded to my question about "what additional info are you hoping to get," and did so by explicitly refusing to answer as it "could turn out to be a dangerous piece of info" - which sounds like telegraphing he has a power role, but why hint at having a role (without revealing it) unless it's a fakehint?;
- has repeatedly pushed people to vote, rather than just voice their suspicions - an approach that can lead to a hasty bandwagoned, scum-driven lynch; and
- responded to Robz888's reasonable question (to "defend his bandwagoning on the 'no lynch' thing") by not responding at all - other than to vote for Robz888; and
- responded to Robz888 pointing out his failure to respond to the question by, yet again, NOT responding - instead focusing on one minor aspect of Robz's post (that he quickly switched his vote in the space of a few minutes). Poking a hole in a minor piece of an argument does not automatically make the whole thing collapse - and trying to do that, while ignoring the more substantial gist of the argument, feels scummy to me.
My scumdar senses are strongly tingling in the direction of Morgrim. Quite strongly, in fact.
Vote: Morgrim
Morgrim, if you want to allay my suspicions, you should address each of the points I've listed above.
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I have a wedding to be at today so I was doing a bunch of driving this morning and won't be able to partake too much today. That said I would tend to side with the thoughts that Morgrim7 is mafia. I don't want to rush the vote yet though So I will currently abstain from voting
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Good points being made. Not enough to sway me yet, although I will do two things:
Unvote Voltglass: My reasoning? Early on he was pointing fingers rather randomly. Not only did I feel it was unnecessary that early, I felt it caused more confusion than it helped anybody determine a Mafia member. Since then, he has waited, making more informed valid arguments. His change in tactics could be seen as suspicious, but I'm getting a better vibe from him now.
Also, I will, for the time being, rescind my "nice camp" feelings towards Morgrim. I'm not nearly ready to move... His actions do speak to a potential power-role player, and if he IS, I don't want to force a reveal. Still, I'll need to hear a lot from him to feel better.
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Hmm.
There is one player who:
- immediately after jotheonah proposed "no lynch," jumped on that bandwagon;
- immediately after the "no lynch" proponent (jotheonah) was countered by two dissents (myself and Tables), jumped off the "no lynch" bandwagon;
- was the only person who responded to my question about "what additional info are you hoping to get," and did so by explicitly refusing to answer as it "could turn out to be a dangerous piece of info" - which sounds like telegraphing he has a power role, but why hint at having a role (without revealing it) unless it's a fakehint?;
- has repeatedly pushed people to vote, rather than just voice their suspicions - an approach that can lead to a hasty bandwagoned, scum-driven lynch; and
- responded to Robz888's reasonable question (to "defend his bandwagoning on the 'no lynch' thing") by not responding at all - other than to vote for Robz888; and
- responded to Robz888 pointing out his failure to respond to the question by, yet again, NOT responding - instead focusing on one minor aspect of Robz's post (that he quickly switched his vote in the space of a few minutes). Poking a hole in a minor piece of an argument does not automatically make the whole thing collapse - and trying to do that, while ignoring the more substantial gist of the argument, feels scummy to me.
My scumdar senses are strongly tingling in the direction of Morgrim. Quite strongly, in fact.
Vote: Morgrim
Morgrim, if you want to allay my suspicions, you should address each of the points I've listed above.
Uhhh, right.
- At first no lynching looked like a good idea, but...
-I thought I had said before that, because you and Tables made a good argument against no lynching, that you had converted me to your view.
-Well, look at my post. I will say that that is the truth, but now it is not. I witheld the info. to protect you from being killed by the mafia, as they would have seen you as a useful source of info. and would want to kill you of if you were not mafia already and they had no better target.
-I thought I had already answered that above, but apparently I had not.
-I guess I was taken a little off guard after being called a liar.
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To clarify Morgrim:
Your reasoning for "withholding information" is that you didn't want Voltglass to be seen as being good at ferreting out information, thus putting him at risk from Mafia?
If so... Interesting. I'll have to consider how best to interpret what that means about you, and potentially about Voltglass.
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To clarify Morgrim:
Your reasoning for "withholding information" is that you didn't want Voltglass to be seen as being good at ferreting out information, thus putting him at risk from Mafia?
If so... Interesting. I'll have to consider how best to interpret what that means about you, and potentially about Voltglass.
Precisely, my dear Watson.
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To clarify Morgrim:
Your reasoning for "withholding information" is that you didn't want Voltglass to be seen as being good at ferreting out information, thus putting him at risk from Mafia?
If so... Interesting. I'll have to consider how best to interpret what that means about you, and potentially about Voltglass.
Precisely, my dear Watson.
I don't get it. You seem to be implying something about roles. But nobody has used their powers yet, so... that's just a hunch right?
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To clarify Morgrim:
Your reasoning for "withholding information" is that you didn't want Voltglass to be seen as being good at ferreting out information, thus putting him at risk from Mafia?
If so... Interesting. I'll have to consider how best to interpret what that means about you, and potentially about Voltglass.
Precisely, my dear Watson.
I don't get it. You seem to be implying something about roles. But nobody has used their powers yet, so... that's just a hunch right?
No. This has nothing to do with roles. I am saying that Voltgloss has obviously some experience, and because of this, if Voltgloss is not mafia, and the mafia do not have a better target already, then Voltgloss would be a good target.
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I know people are busy, but I'd really like more thoughts from:
Bozzball, Kuildeous, Insomniac, and joetheonah. Maybe Tables as well. Lots of information to offer thoughts on. I'd like to hear where they're at with all this.
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On another note, Kuildeous and bozzball, who are your ssuspects.
The rub is that I don't currently have suspicions. Something I've noticed in play-by-forum is that there is no body language to read. Also, people have more time to come up with rebuttals, examining what they have written with plenty of time to come up with wording that acquits themselves and possibly puts blame on others. From reading the past few pages, I do not have a rock-steady suspicion.
That being said, I am going to vote Insomniac. It's not because I am actively accusing Insomniac of being Mafia, but I'm adopting the "better safe than sorry" approach of lynching. I only hope that my random dart hits the bull's-eye.
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I second Galzria's request for others to chime in. In particular, I'd like to hear Tables' response to Robz's question - about what issues Tables thinks Robz should be addressing in his posts, but isn't.
Also, Galzria - it's "Voltgloss," not Voltglass. O, not A. Ridiculously minor nitpick, I know - apologies for even bringing it up. :)
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Sorry, I often post from my phone, and it auto-corrects to what it knows. Putting Voltgloss into dictionary now. ;D
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I'm going to be gone for a couple hours, and probably won't be able to post regularly until after midnight (EST).
My primary suspect is Morgrim, for the reasons laid out by Voltgloss and myself. I don't have good cause to suspect anyone else, although I've found bozzball's behavior strange. Not necessarily suspicious, but strange.
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I'm going to be gone for a couple hours, and probably won't be able to post regularly until after midnight (EST).
My primary suspect is Morgrim, for the reasons laid out by Voltgloss and myself. I don't have good cause to suspect anyone else, although I've found bozzball's behavior strange. Not necessarily suspicious, but strange.
Wait, didn't I just rebut Voltgloss's points? sheesh, all you do is make one typo and people jump on you.
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Here's my analysis of Morgrim's "no comment" towards Voltgloss:
I understand that he doesn't want to unnecessarily get people in trouble, however, I think it's fair to claim that everyone here would declare: TOWNIE, if asked their alignment. Therefore simply saying that reveals nothing, and in no way implicates Voltgloss as a good detective. So, a "no comment" to me reads two ways (both a slip up): I'm Mafia, or I'm a power-role.
If there are two power roles, lynching him gives us a 50% success rate to kill Mafia, 50% to really hurt ourselves. If there is only 1 power role however... 66% of the time, lynching him his Mafia, 33% of the time REALLY hurts the town.
However, if we opt for safety and don't lynch him, he's a high target if he is not Mafia, and very likely Mafia if he survives the night, so should be lynched day 2.
Given the odds, do we make a move now, or wait. If we make the move and he IS a power role, he'll be forced to reveal, but at least we'll have more information on todays vote. (Helps Mafia too, but I'm thinking Morgrim is a dead man walking at this point).
Any thoughts? Things I missed? Different opinions on the read? Speak up!
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Hi team!
Couple of things: It looks like we have an entire week to make a decision. I thought the timetable was much quicker than that so I have been playing a little more harriedly than I otherwise would have. So, first thing's first, Unvote.
For those of you still suspicious of me, I totally understand that. I'm not a veteran mafia player, and I think we can all agree that the intuitive thing to believe would be that pointing a gun randomly in a room full of 7 good guys and 2 bad guys is a bad way to kill the bad guys, compared to not firing the gun at all. Which was my rationale behind my no lynch vote, which was a tentative vote anyway. So it was not a mafia master plan double feint to get you all to play suboptimally.
I still think Tables was quick to turn folly into foul play and I think he's a rabble rouser. The way that his post changed the tone from discussion to accusation is a big red flag for me. But I'm not accusing him per se. I'll be on again around midnight.
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Re: Morgrim. It seems to me he folded a little too quickly under pressure for a real power role player. If he were legit, wouldn't he wait until he was on the brink of elimination to give the mafia that info? His play has been erratic, and it's suspicious. Still, I agree with whoever advocated a Day 2 kill. Why risk crippling ourselves?
I would say, if we must make a kill, let's kill Kildeous. Here's my thought: People who don't talk that much, or don't contribute that much, are not that huge a loss if they turn out to be innocent. It's also a pretty saavy way for a mafioso who's not confident about his skills to wait out the first round. I could say the same thing about Insomniac, but all the evidence is he hasn't been around, whereas Kildeous has apparently been lurking a lot, posting a little. So, as the week goes on, I'll be looking forward to hearing more from him to allay my suspicions.
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Hi team!
Couple of things: It looks like we have an entire week to make a decision. I thought the timetable was much quicker than that so I have been playing a little more harriedly than I otherwise would have.
Does the time make a difference for the first day? I'm not sure that we'll learn more in a week without some other stimuli.
I'm speaking about getting the game moving fairly quickly, but I understand if people have less time to engage.
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I support taking our time, but not taking a full week. If it were up to me, I would like to have the vote decided in the next two days. But I understand that not everyone is not able to post so often--which is why the moderator set the time limit--so it's okay whatever way it happens.
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I'm also good taking as long as we feel we need, as long as the conversation is (relatively) flowing and we're going somewhere with it. Sitting and waiting for no reason only helps the Mafia who win via a "timeout" on the deadline.
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However, as I pointed out in another thread, I've moved into the forums and live here now, so any down cycles in posting make me go all Conspiracy Theory (good 'ol movie, btw).
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For the record however, we've seen a real lack in substance recently from:
Insomniac, Bozzball, Tables
And light substance from:
Mogrim, Voltgloss, Robz888
Kuildeous and Joetheoneh, both made recent contributions, although Kuildeous did ignore Joetheoneh's accusation. Hmm.
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I am for taking our time... just not too long. Now, dont get all over me for my recent posts trying to speed things up, I wanted to have peoples opinion. One problem: What are we hoping to accomplish by taking our time? Have we not talked six pages worth already?
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People who don't talk that much, or don't contribute that much, are not that huge a loss if they turn out to be innocent.
This is true if quality = quantity. Speaking the most does not deflect guilt.
I also have not had much time to post things today. My schedule varies; some days I have more time, and others I don't. I have nothing to prevent me from posting in 48 hours, at least (until Origins).
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People who don't talk that much, or don't contribute that much, are not that huge a loss if they turn out to be innocent.
This is true if quality = quantity. Speaking the most does not deflect guilt.
I also have not had much time to post things today. My schedule varies; some days I have more time, and others I don't. I have nothing to prevent me from posting in 48 hours, at least (until Origins).
Fair enough, I just wanted to hear you say it. ;P
Here's where I stand with all members:
Kuildeous: Hasn't posted much. Not overly suspicious of him, but would like to hear more.
Insomniac: Hasn't posted much. Gave a very valid reason. Not suspicious. Would like to hear more.
Robz888: I'm not really buying his accusations on Morgrim, especially about bandwagoning. However, I get the feeling this is how he plays. No judgment, yet.
Tables: Too quiet. When he speaks he says a lot, but nothing that seems helpful. I tend to feel more confused after reading his posts. Maybe that's just me? Suspicious.
Voltgloss: I voted for him early, then unvoted. Still on the fence, could go either way. Leaning towards townie.
Bozzball: Very suspicious. I don't think he took anytime to defend himself over his quick accusations of Robz888, then he's gone MIA with no reason (unlike most of you).
Morgrim: Something is going on here, but I don't want to push it too aggressively yet. If he's a goodguy, his slip may have been innocent, and if he's Mafia, it didn't make sense at all. Don't jump the shark here.
Joetheoneh: Not enough posts to get a great feel for. Leaning townie. Withholding judgment.
VOTE: BOZZBALL Right now, I'm fairly confidant with that.
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Confident* even. Silly autocorrect. 8)
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Various thoughts.
Morgrim's responses have me more convinced he is Mafia, not less. Why?
- Morgrim has still not responded to Robz888 asking him to defend his bandwagoning on "no lynch." Morgrim has explained why he jumped off that bandwagon, but never explained why he jumped on it so quickly. Now, I don't find jumping on that bandwagon to be a clear scumtell - but his continued failure to address Robz's question has me concerned.
- Morgrim did not respond regarding his pushing people to vote, rather than to voice suspicions. His last post says not to get all over him for trying to speed things up because he "wanted to have peoples' opinion." Which is perfectly fine, and what several of us (including myself) have been trying to do. But... you can solicit peoples' opinion without pushing them to vote.
- The whole "withholding information" thing. Let's look again at how Morgrim initially responded to my query:
I also have a separate question for those who have said "we should wait until we get more info": What additional info are you hoping to get, and how are you expecting to get it?
Question #1: I will not answer this question, the answer could turn out to be a dangerous peice of info.
Question #2: ditto
And then how Morgrim replied when I noted this as suspicious:
-Well, look at my post. I will say that that is the truth, but now it is not. I witheld the info. to protect you from being killed by the mafia, as they would have seen you as a useful source of info. and would want to kill you of if you were not mafia already and they had no better target.
The statement "I will say that that is the truth, but now it is not" is inscrutable to me. I really don't know what it means. It seems to be suggesting Morgrim is, or was, lying? Whatever it means, it is vague and obscure, and therefore suspicious.
Furthermore, the professed concern for me - raised in Morgrim's explanation - does not actually come through in Morgrim's original reply. His original reply, that the answer could be a "dangerous piece of info," suggests rather that he is a power role - Cop, specifically. But now he's disavowed that in favor of some alternate explanation. This isn't ringing true for me.
Now, all this said, I understand the point raised by Galzria, and echoed by jotheonah, that Morgrim is likely either Mafia or a power role - and therefore, maybe we would do better to lynch Morgrim on the second day. However, the more I think about this, the less I think delaying benefits us. Why?
- If Morgrim is Mafia, then of course we want to lynch him now, rather than later.
- If Morgrim is NOT Mafia, but we go into Day 2 thinking "if Morgrim survives the night we lynch him in the day," then the Mafia has no reason to target him. So his surviving doesn't actually give us any further information about Morgrim we don't already have today. (Unless a Cop investigates him, I guess - but might we be better off having a Cop investigate someone who is more difficult to read?)
If Morgrim is a power role, and we move towards lynching him, then he'll be forced to reveal. But as Galzria said, that's not necessarily the worst result. Heck, if Morgrim reveals as Cop, and if we have a Doctor or Jailer in the mix (66% chance if Morgrim is a Cop), perhaps the Mafia will wind up wasting their nighttime kill chance taking the "obvious" route of targeting Morgrim.
End result: my vote for Morgrim stays unchanged.
Caveat: Galzria's concerns re: Bozzball and Tables resonate with me as well. I still think Morgrim is more suspicious, which is why my vote stays where it is (at least for now); but I would very much like to hear what Bozzball and Tables have to say. Especially Tables better explaining his last comment about Robz.
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Various thoughts.
Morgrim's responses have me more convinced he is Mafia, not less. Why?
- Morgrim has still not responded to Robz888 asking him to defend his bandwagoning on "no lynch." Morgrim has explained why he jumped off that bandwagon, but never explained why he jumped on it so quickly. Now, I don't find jumping on that bandwagon to be a clear scumtell - but his continued failure to address Robz's question has me concerned.
- Morgrim did not respond regarding his pushing people to vote, rather than to voice suspicions. His last post says not to get all over him for trying to speed things up because he "wanted to have peoples' opinion." Which is perfectly fine, and what several of us (including myself) have been trying to do. But... you can solicit peoples' opinion without pushing them to vote.
- The whole "withholding information" thing. Let's look again at how Morgrim initially responded to my query:
I also have a separate question for those who have said "we should wait until we get more info": What additional info are you hoping to get, and how are you expecting to get it?
Question #1: I will not answer this question, the answer could turn out to be a dangerous peice of info.
Question #2: ditto
And then how Morgrim replied when I noted this as suspicious:
-Well, look at my post. I will say that that is the truth, but now it is not. I witheld the info. to protect you from being killed by the mafia, as they would have seen you as a useful source of info. and would want to kill you of if you were not mafia already and they had no better target.
The statement "I will say that that is the truth, but now it is not" is inscrutable to me. I really don't know what it means. It seems to be suggesting Morgrim is, or was, lying? Whatever it means, it is vague and obscure, and therefore suspicious.
Furthermore, the professed concern for me - raised in Morgrim's explanation - does not actually come through in Morgrim's original reply. His original reply, that the answer could be a "dangerous piece of info," suggests rather that he is a power role - Cop, specifically. But now he's disavowed that in favor of some alternate explanation. This isn't ringing true for me.
Now, all this said, I understand the point raised by Galzria, and echoed by jotheonah, that Morgrim is likely either Mafia or a power role - and therefore, maybe we would do better to lynch Morgrim on the second day. However, the more I think about this, the less I think delaying benefits us. Why?
- If Morgrim is Mafia, then of course we want to lynch him now, rather than later.
- If Morgrim is NOT Mafia, but we go into Day 2 thinking "if Morgrim survives the night we lynch him in the day," then the Mafia has no reason to target him. So his surviving doesn't actually give us any further information about Morgrim we don't already have today. (Unless a Cop investigates him, I guess - but might we be better off having a Cop investigate someone who is more difficult to read?)
If Morgrim is a power role, and we move towards lynching him, then he'll be forced to reveal. But as Galzria said, that's not necessarily the worst result. Heck, if Morgrim reveals as Cop, and if we have a Doctor or Jailer in the mix (66% chance if Morgrim is a Cop), perhaps the Mafia will wind up wasting their nighttime kill chance taking the "obvious" route of targeting Morgrim.
End result: my vote for Morgrim stays unchanged.
Caveat: Galzria's concerns re: Bozzball and Tables resonate with me as well. I still think Morgrim is more suspicious, which is why my vote stays where it is (at least for now); but I would very much like to hear what Bozzball and Tables have to say. Especially Tables better explaining his last comment about Robz.
- I will say this agsin and no more. WHEN I VOTED, IT LOOKED LIKE A GOOD IDEA AT THE TIME.
- I urged people to vote only because I WANTED TO KNOW THEIR OPINION.
- I wante to protect you from getting killed by mafia, because you were an obvious source of goo info. Now, it does not matter any more.
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- I will say this agsin and no more. WHEN I VOTED, IT LOOKED LIKE A GOOD IDEA AT THE TIME.
- I urged people to vote only because I WANTED TO KNOW THEIR OPINION.
- I wante to protect you from getting killed by mafia, because you were an obvious source of goo info. Now, it does not matter any more.
This is a mystifying response to me. "I will say this again and no more." I mean, if it's unclear or un-persuasive to us, why not say it more? Also, look, I know it sucks to have every little thing you say picked apart. Alas, that's what we have to do. And all CAPS responses look incriminating to me. They look overly defensive. They look like a mafia grasping at straws and getting angry that it's looking increasingly likely that he goes first. If you are innocent, we need you to explain why with calm, reasoned, lengthy posts, not "because I WANTED TO KNOW THEIR OPINION."
Also, the wanting to protect Voltgloss sentence doesn't make sense to me. He's a good source of info, sure. I agree with just about everything he has posted lately. And if you thing he should be protected, and can do so, the way to do that is discreetly in the night. Putting it in the convo looked really, really weird.
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All right.
Cool, calm, collected posts you say? I will oblige.
First off, I see it pointless to defend myself further, but better safe than sorry.
Well, the reason I reacted so harshly is because I feel that I have tried to make this point many times before. At the time that Voltgloss was talking about not lynching, I looked over his point and said I thought it was a good idea. I see now that I acted rashly. It was definitely not a good idea, so I voted against it. End of story.
The reason why I used CAPS in the second reply is the same as above. I feel as though I have tried to get this point across before. The reason why I asked people to vote, is because I wanted their opinion, thus rising more discussion. In my situation at that time, I now see that again I made the wrong move. I should have kept my big mouth shut ( a hard thing to do ;) )and let you guys keep talking.
Is there something wrong with protecting Voltgloss?
The reason I said it does not matter anymore, is because he is accusing me of being mafia, and defending someone who is attacking me is useless.
FWIW, Vote: bozzball.
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Kuildeous: Hasn't posted much. Not overly suspicious of him, but would like to hear more.
Not really sure what more I can say. I, of course, will deny being guilty, whether I'm a Townie or Mafia, so that answer wouldn't sway anyone at all.
I am starting to form an opinion, but it's not rock solid yet.
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Kuildeous: Hasn't posted much. Not overly suspicious of him, but would like to hear more.
Not really sure what more I can say. I, of course, will deny being guilty, whether I'm a Townie or Mafia, so that answer wouldn't sway anyone at all.
I am starting to form an opinion, but it's not rock solid yet.
Ooh, mysterious. Nothin good to say huh?
*Pulls out Robz888's guide to Mafia*
KUILDEOUS, ARE YOU MAFIA?!? ARE YOU???
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Nothin good to say huh?
Nothing substantial, no.
*Pulls out Robz888's guide to Mafia*
KUILDEOUS, ARE YOU MAFIA?!? ARE YOU???
*pulls out Robz888's guide to answering questions*
I have to say "no" to that, but you already know that's going to be my answer no matter what.
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*grumble*
Damn all encompassing guide. ;)
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Vote Count 1-2
bozzball (2) - Galzria, Morgrim7
Jotheonah (1) - Tables
Robz888 (1) - bozzball
Morgrim7 (1) - Voltgloss
Not Voting (4) - Robz888, Insomniac, Kuildeous, jotheonah
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch
Deadline: Monday, May 28, 2012 6pm PDT
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Back a little later than I'd planned. You can thank Amtrak for that.
So I've been turning everything over in my head, and the only one who stands out to me as more than just suspicious is Morgrim. He seems TOO concerned about being lynched, frantic to defend himself. And he's said some things that don't make a lot of sense.
Also, I hate to say this, but if Morgrim is mafia #1 than Galzria emerges as a strong suspect for Mafia #2 - given that he originated the "wait til day 2" plan, which would be a good way to save your partner for a day while appearing to be joining in his condemnation.
Reread the whole thread (or skim it) with a Morgrim-Galzria mafia pair in mind and it's ... not impossible.
Tables, Kuildeous, I still have my eye on y'all, but I'm ready to put a vote on Morgrim
OT: Robz, I'm sure our being journalists can only help us. Asking leading questions, getting people to reveal too much information, stocks of the trade, amIright? I've been copy editing lately but I'm about to start an internship at a major magazine, trying to get back into the reporting game.
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Galzria, could you explain your vote for bozzball a little more in-depth?
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Fair enough observations Joetheoneh, although I don't think you fully understood my post against Morgrim (or perhaps I was unclear?)
I have no issues with lynching him today. He is in my top 3 suspects, and the only one I know with certainty has SOMETHING he's hiding. Now, my stated hesitancy was twofold:
First, I don't want to seem an ass, and while I disagree with Robz's argument re: Morgrim, I don't disagree with his conclusion. Still, that would put a lot (read: possible majority) against Morgrim, and I wasn't sure we were quite ready to jump there yet.
Second, if he isn't Mafia but indeed a power-role, that will spell trouble for us if he's taken out. Even if he is forced to reveal (which would help us in todays vote), it would likely hurt us more overall.
I wasn't a real proponent of a second day lynch... Just more interested in providing thoughts and options. Still, I have no qualms with seeing him off today. There have been enough missteps that leave me comfortable with that vote. Like I said, I feel there's a 66% chance he's Mafia (2 Mafia, 1 Power-Role). 50% chance at worst (2/2). Those seem as good as any odds first day, and perhaps much better.
As to Bozzball: Robz888 was gone for awhile, came back, and made a courtesy post of "Hey, let me get caught up, and I'll post my thoughts". To me, at least, this seemed rather innocent. To Bozzball it apparently didn't, and he immediately cast a vote on Robz888.
That seemed over aggressive. Like I've said from the beginning, I don't like random play for the sake of randomness. It breeds confusion, the weapon of the Mafia. I'm very careful when I start making accusations to try and produce a well founded argument, so as to not allow uncertainty or wiggle room. I too work in journalism. Political Science focus. I'm very NOT red-meat oriented.
When I inquired further to Bozzball, his answer was short, and I felt rather unsatisfactory. Saying he just felt it was suspicious. It added nothing, and hardly built a case. Since then, he hasn't said a word, allowing for more confusion and accusations to fly while staying disengaged.
Being away in and of itself is not criminal. But the feel of his actions has left me more than suspicious. Would I go so far as to say he IS Mafia? No. But I don't mind applying pressure where I think it's needed.
Answer everything?
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Yep. You're very articulate and thorough in responding to people, which I appreciate. If you are Morgrim's accomplice, you've just thrown him under the bus quite enthusiastically. And since no one as acquainted with the game as you would be in that much of a hurry to be a one-man Mafia, I have little choice but to believe you. And perhaps I'll add bozz to my "suspicious, but not lynch-suspicious" short list. Waiting to hear a defense from him.
Now, some words about my name. It's supposed to be, like my iso username, jtotheonah, which of course is just Jonah with (to the) inserted into it. J to the Onah. Dumb, dorky, but it made for a pithy Twitter handle so I stuck with it. Then, when I registered for this forum I made a typo. So I'm jotheonah. Which, of course, is confusing to everyone, which is why I've seen it spelled like 11,000 ways here. So, call me jotheonah. Or jotheonah. Or, hell, Jonah if you want. Extra letters need not apply.
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Ha! made the same typo again.
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Some good thoughts here:
Back a little later than I'd planned. You can thank Amtrak for that.
So I've been turning everything over in my head, and the only one who stands out to me as more than just suspicious is Morgrim. He seems TOO concerned about being lynched, frantic to defend himself. And he's said some things that don't make a lot of sense.
I've already stated that this is my opinion, too--and Voltgloss's--so it's good to see people coming around to it. His dodges, his defensiveness, the "kill anyone" attitude, and that one series of confusing statements... it's a surprisingly solid amount to go on him. He just sticks out like a sore thumb at this point. As I've said before, I am uber-hesitant to cast actual votes, instead of just making accusations, but I will cast a vote for morgrim unless something crazy happens to change my mind in the next half a day or so.
Also, I hate to say this, but if Morgrim is mafia #1 than Galzria emerges as a strong suspect for Mafia #2 - given that he originated the "wait til day 2" plan, which would be a good way to save your partner for a day while appearing to be joining in his condemnation.
Reread the whole thread (or skim it) with a Morgrim-Galzria mafia pair in mind and it's ... not impossible.
Tables, Kuildeous, I still have my eye on y'all, but I'm ready to put a vote on Morgrim
That was really interesting, so I looked back through the thread looking for a Galzria-Morgrim link. It's not impossible, I agree, but it does have one problem: Morgrim put an early vote on Galzria (reply #69). It would surprise me if the mafia would cast early votes for each other in the first round before too much of anybody's mind was made up on anything. It's too dangerous for them, what if things had snowballed against Galzria? If not for that vote I would agree with you that they could be the pair.
At present, I would think Tables or possibly bozzball as the most likely candidates for the second mafia but... mainly because they came after me, somewhat, while I was going after Morgrim. Tables said the things I was raising about Morgrim were "not relevant," and he has never explained that and it kind of stung me. But you know, I haven't heard nearly enough from Insomniac and Kuildeous, so I haven't really been given a chance to suspect one of them as the second mafia. So my thoughts on all this are slight, not strong.
OT: Robz, I'm sure our being journalists can only help us. Asking leading questions, getting people to reveal too much information, stocks of the trade, amIright? I've been copy editing lately but I'm about to start an internship at a major magazine, trying to get back into the reporting game.
Awesome! I have no interest in anonymity, so I can tell you that I interned at Reason magazine two summers ago. The DC journalism scene is pretty great, if by chance that's where you are headed.
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Some good thoughts here:
Back a little later than I'd planned. You can thank Amtrak for that.
So I've been turning everything over in my head, and the only one who stands out to me as more than just suspicious is Morgrim. He seems TOO concerned about being lynched, frantic to defend himself. And he's said some things that don't make a lot of sense.
I've already stated that this is my opinion, too--and Voltgloss's--so it's good to see people coming around to it. His dodges, his defensiveness, the "kill anyone" attitude, and that one series of confusing statements... it's a surprisingly solid amount to go on him. He just sticks out like a sore thumb at this point. As I've said before, I am uber-hesitant to cast actual votes, instead of just making accusations, but I will cast a vote for morgrim unless something crazy happens to change my mind in the next half a day or so.
Also, I hate to say this, but if Morgrim is mafia #1 than Galzria emerges as a strong suspect for Mafia #2 - given that he originated the "wait til day 2" plan, which would be a good way to save your partner for a day while appearing to be joining in his condemnation.
Reread the whole thread (or skim it) with a Morgrim-Galzria mafia pair in mind and it's ... not impossible.
Tables, Kuildeous, I still have my eye on y'all, but I'm ready to put a vote on Morgrim
That was really interesting, so I looked back through the thread looking for a Galzria-Morgrim link. It's not impossible, I agree, but it does have one problem: Morgrim put an early vote on Galzria (reply #69). It would surprise me if the mafia would cast early votes for each other in the first round before too much of anybody's mind was made up on anything. It's too dangerous for them, what if things had snowballed against Galzria? If not for that vote I would agree with you that they could be the pair.
At present, I would think Tables or possibly bozzball as the most likely candidates for the second mafia but... mainly because they came after me, somewhat, while I was going after Morgrim. Tables said the things I was raising about Morgrim were "not relevant," and he has never explained that and it kind of stung me. But you know, I haven't heard nearly enough from Insomniac and Kuildeous, so I haven't really been given a chance to suspect one of them as the second mafia. So my thoughts on all this are slight, not strong.
OT: Robz, I'm sure our being journalists can only help us. Asking leading questions, getting people to reveal too much information, stocks of the trade, amIright? I've been copy editing lately but I'm about to start an internship at a major magazine, trying to get back into the reporting game.
Awesome! I have no interest in anonymity, so I can tell you that I interned at Reason magazine two summers ago. The DC journalism scene is pretty great, if by chance that's where you are headed.
I must immediately correct my suggestion that bozzball could be the second mafia, now that I see morgrim has voted for him, that seems extremely, extremely, extremely unlikely for the same reason galzria is probably not the second mafia.
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I've applied for some DC gigs before. I have no doubt I'll end up there eventually, but I really love NYC. I'll be starting at Psychology Today in a few weeks.
At present, I would think Tables or possibly bozzball as the most likely candidates for the second mafia but... mainly because they came after me, somewhat, while I was going after Morgrim. Tables said the things I was raising about Morgrim were "not relevant," and he has never explained that and it kind of stung me. But you know, I haven't heard nearly enough from Insomniac and Kuildeous, so I haven't really been given a chance to suspect one of them as the second mafia. So my thoughts on all this are slight, not strong.
This is really interesting. I made the first no lynch motion, Morgrim jumped on it. We both backed off NL after it was explained how bad it was. Most people jumped on Morgrim for jumping on and off so quickly, but Tables targeted me guns blazing - and he's made no similar accusations. If he was covering for Morgrim, that would make a lot of sense. But, one mafioso at a time.
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This is really interesting. I made the first no lynch motion, Morgrim jumped on it. We both backed off NL after it was explained how bad it was. Most people jumped on Morgrim for jumping on and off so quickly, but Tables targeted me guns blazing - and he's made no similar accusations. If he was covering for Morgrim, that would make a lot of sense. But, one mafioso at a time.
One at a time, I agree. And I suspect we might have one.
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I need to get some sleep here, so I'll be dark for the next 5 or 6 hours. If we are ready to roll with a vote on Morgrim then, count me in.
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Ditto on needing to go to bed. Robz, I can't help but notice that you're now a Duke. Did you steal that widowed Duchess out from Kuildeous's nose?
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Ditto on needing to go to bed. Robz, I can't help but notice that you're now a Duke. Did you steal that widowed Duchess out from Kuildeous's nose?
Haha. What a time for me to get promoted... with Dukes being murdered!
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I am not really in the position where I can log into the server 24 hours a day. If that makes me suspicious, so be it.
My vote for robz888 was because I couldn't see any reason for his post. There didn't seem to be a groundswell of suspicions about his silence (and as I said in the previous paragraph, I can't really understand why there would be - people need to sleep, go to work, meet their friends, whatever). Thus it seemed a very strange thing to do.
My vote is a bit random, but I am having a very hard time believing the claims that a first day vote can be anything other than shooting randomly. I don't see how having a week of analysis can help when the good guys have absolutely no information.
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For the record however, we've seen a real lack in substance recently from:
Tables...
Firstly to address this and other people suspicious of me for my lack of activitiy. It's called sleep. I do it during the night, which isn't the same time as most of you in the US sleep. This is the second time I've had to point that out. I was also busy in the evening, which the fact I hadn't been logged on might have indicated.
People have also taken the comments about Robz far too far. I said I found it slightly suspicious. It took two lines, when most of my accusations and points take paragraphs. That really should have indicated that it was more a 'eh, this might be worth looking at' rather than a 'Hey guys, I'm painting a target on this guys head and firing ma lazors'. In particular, having looked back after a night's rest, I don't find the posts nearly as suspicious any more - mainly because I only looked at page 5 where he was rambling about profession, odds, and the setup in general instead of analysis, but he HAD done anaylsis on page 4. So considering that, no, I'm not really suspicious of Robz any more.
Why are so many people talking about who could be the 'second mafia', when we currently have no idea of the first? Sure, making connections between players is good, but they should definitely be treated VERY lightly. Especially because, mafia players rarely want to HAVE that link between themselves, as it means they all fall together. Look for someone trying to be agreeable with everyone, or everyone but one person and you might just have a suspect. Or don't, as even that's unlikely.
jotheonah: I targeted you as you were the first one to suggest it, and the first to defend yourself. The defence wasn't especially convincing. However, Morgrim's defence has been even worse. As for you, since I've been asleep, your position has improved, and you've done nothing to make me more suspicious since your no lynch suggestion. I may come to regret this but I'll leave your no lynch suggestion as an ill concieved idea rather than a malicious one for the time being, and Unvote: Jotheonah.
Morgrim: I'm hesitant to vote for him, however: His argument seems so weak, it looks more like bad town play rather than bad mafia play (no offence Morgrim). I realise that people may suspect me for defending him, especially if he turns out to be mafia, but then, refer back to my previous point. We don't get mcuh from lynching townies, and I'm certainly not convinced he's that suspicious just yet, just, a beginner player.
Another thing to raise: Quietness, or vocalness, isn't suspicious. Often it comes down to playstyle and ability to actually get online. Mafia players might be more likely to slip up when they talk more, but in my experience as both mafia and town, and my experience of moderating games, neither side is more or less active (certainly not by a notable amount) than the other. It's good to pressure quiet players into posting more, but don't call it suspicious or anything, because to be honest, I find using that as an excuse to raise suspicions quite suspicious in itself.
Right now, I have no hugely strong suspicions (as you may have guessed from the unvote). I'm going to reread things, make some notes (hint: Do this), and then come back and give some more analysis on everyone.
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Just posting to note that I've read everything up to this point and have two quick things to add:
- Bozzball, you keep saying you don't see how a first day vote can be anything but random. That suggests to me that you don't find the arguments against Morgrim convincing. I would like to hear more detail on why that is so.
- Tables, I am very interested to see your further analysis once you have had the opportunity to complete it - particularly on how to go about differentiating bad town play from bad mafia play. And also, how to differentiate bad town play from good mafia play.
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Yes, I'm having the same problem here. A number of players are new, so it's very hard to get reads on them, as you point out: newbies are hard to work out in many cases, and a lot of players here seem to be new. Unfortunately, while I always let the facts and good analysis override me, in lack of good information I tend to be somewhat instinctive in who feels 'scummy', even if I can't give reasons.
While I haven't finished my analysis/note taking yet (only done pages 2-4 so far, and it's taken this long!), I have to say that Voltgloss is looking the most town player: I have repeated notes on how he's made good useful points to the town. Helpful to the town, or good mafia play? Hard to say, but I'm leaning towards town (of course, rereading pages 5-7 could change that). Players I don't have any notes on (i.e. nothing noteworthy to report) for those 3 pages are Kuleidos and Imsomniac. I'll be keeping an eye out for them on the later pages.
The reason I'm saying this now, is because I ended up not finishing by a long shot before I have to go. Since I'm going to be board gaming all afternoon, I might not be back for more play until late this evening (10-11 hours time). Which means even MORE things to read and post about. Yay! (I might leave early, depending on stuff)
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I did actually vote for Insomniac, but it didn't take. I suspect because I omitted the colon, and I’m sure the moderator is searching for that (we do provide a lot of text to sift through).
My vote was pretty much random, but I then reread the rules and saw that a tie means that there is no lynch. So, if a no-lynch vote is bad for the town, then it would reason that a tie is just as harmful. So, I'm avoiding the random vote and jumping on the bandwagon. I will vote: bozzball and may the gods have mercy on us if we are wrong.
I would like to ask for a clarification. I know the Doctor and Jailkeeper can prevent a death. Does that include death from lynching?
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I did actually vote for Insomniac, but it didn't take. I suspect because I omitted the colon, and I’m sure the moderator is searching for that (we do provide a lot of text to sift through).
Probably right, which leads me to suggest to the town at large: If you're serious about voting, make sure to use the "vote: name" syntax. I see at least one recent post that suggests it intends a vote (jotheonah's, about Morgrim) but it doesn't use the "vote: name" syntax, which renders it unclear. Apparently (and quite rightly) Axxle is only counting votes that use the "vote: name" syntax.
I would like to ask for a clarification. I know the Doctor and Jailkeeper can prevent a death. Does that include death from lynching?
My understanding is "no" - they can only prevent a death during the nighttime.
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Things that jumped out in my morning-suggested readthrough:
I like jotheonah's point, but you, sir, could very well be mafia yourself... so could I...
If I were a beginning player in the mafia, that would be an odd thing to say. Even though it's obviously a joke, I would think a mafia player would be on guard against putting that idea further in the forefront of someone's brain.
In fact, I'm beginning to get a bad vibe from Robz. The things he's chosen to respond to aren't exactly... the most relevant things he could have been picking out. Information, not analysis, type posts. Slightly worrying.
Tables, I'll be interested to here if this suspicion has cleared up for you.
I did actually vote for Insomniac, but it didn't take. I suspect because I omitted the colon, and I’m sure the moderator is searching for that (we do provide a lot of text to sift through).
My vote was pretty much random, but I then reread the rules and saw that a tie means that there is no lynch. So, if a no-lynch vote is bad for the town, then it would reason that a tie is just as harmful. So, I'm avoiding the random vote and jumping on the bandwagon. I will vote: bozzball and may the gods have mercy on us if we are wrong.
Kuil, you keep chiming in to vote without doing analysis or explaining. There's no need for you to vote for anyone yet, a tie wouldn't be declared until everyone had voted and we're nowhere near that OR the deadline. Bandwagon voting like that doesn't really help the town and is slightly suspicious.
Also, if your point there was just to vote for someone who already has votes, why bozzball and not Morgrim?
To clear up any potential syntax problems, I'll reiterate. Vote: Morgrim7
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What is there left to say?
Two Questions: When the mafia kills someone, who will they target if you lynch me?
Wh will they target if we lynch bozzball?
Please do not see this as a defense. I am not defending myself, I am merely trying to find out something.
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- Bozzball, you keep saying you don't see how a first day vote can be anything but random. That suggests to me that you don't find the arguments against Morgrim convincing. I would like to hear more detail on why that is so.
Because the arguments seem to be that he should be lynched because he voted for "No lynch", and that he suggested people should get on and vote because there's not much benefit for waiting - as the first day vote will essentially be random. Both of these are arguments that I have made.
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- Bozzball, you keep saying you don't see how a first day vote can be anything but random. That suggests to me that you don't find the arguments against Morgrim convincing. I would like to hear more detail on why that is so.
Because the arguments seem to be that he should be lynched because he voted for "No lynch", and that he suggested people should get on and vote because there's not much benefit for waiting - as the first day vote will essentially be random. Both of these are arguments that I have made.
Those arguments, while I find... Less than innocuous, aren't tells as far as I'm concerned. Of greater worry to me, were points made in posts #118, #128, and #140. It's those arguments that have me UNVOTE: BOZZBALL, and instead VOTE: MORGRIM7. I've fully laid out the rest of my reasons to that move in posts #151, and #158.
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I am now nonchalant about being lynched, for the majority is now on me. My question still stands, though.
Who will the mafia target now that I am doomed to be lynched? I am thinking bozzball. Any other thoughts?
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What is there left to say?
Two Questions: When the mafia kills someone, who will they target if you lynch me?
Wh will they target if we lynch bozzball?
Please do not see this as a defense. I am not defending myself, I am merely trying to find out something.
What is the "something" you trying to find out?
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Correction for typo: What is the
What is there left to say?
Two Questions: When the mafia kills someone, who will they target if you lynch me?
Wh will they target if we lynch bozzball?
Please do not see this as a defense. I am not defending myself, I am merely trying to find out something.
What is the "something" you trying to find out?
Correction for typo: What is the "something" you are trying to find out?
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Correction for typo: What is the What is there left to say?
Two Questions: When the mafia kills someone, who will they target if you lynch me?
Wh will they target if we lynch bozzball?
Please do not see this as a defense. I am not defending myself, I am merely trying to find out something.
What is the "something" you trying to find out?
Correction for typo: What is the "something" you are trying to find out?
Who is likely to be killed now that I am dead?
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Also, I would suggest that those others who have expressed an interest in voting Morgrim but have not yet done so (Robz, Insomniac) please wait and NOT drop the hammer until after Tables has had a chance to complete and provide his analysis this evening. I am very interested to hear Tables' thoughts before we move to a final decision.
If a 4th vote for Morgrim comes in before Tables returns, I will likely unvote to prevent a premature hammer-dropping. But if Tables' analysis does not convince me my suspicions of Morgrim are misplaced, I will be reinstating my vote.
Correction for typo: What is the "something" you are trying to find out?
Who is likely to be killed now that I am dead?
Morgrim, why are you trying to find this out? I can see at least two possible reasons, but I would like to know yours.
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Just curous to know. It could be you, it could be Tables (although I think he is mafia) it could be anyone. With this info. the power role could have a better target.
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Kuil, you keep chiming in to vote without doing analysis or explaining. There's no need for you to vote for anyone yet, a tie wouldn't be declared until everyone had voted and we're nowhere near that OR the deadline. Bandwagon voting like that doesn't really help the town and is slightly suspicious.
Of course it's suspicious. Everything is suspicious. Not voting is suspicious. Voting is suspicious. Being vocal is suspicious. Holding your tongue is suspicious. I suppose that's the nature of the game.
There is nothing to analyze. This game consists of Dominion players, who seem to be on the smarter side of things. So, everything I see typed up might be taken at face value, or they could be intentionally written so as to trick everyone else. Everything I typed is pretty much what I would have typed whether or not I was Mafia. I suspect the same is true for everyone else. Again, we don't have body language or impulsive claims. So, I fail to see what we can analyze in the first day, except that we know that two people in here are pretty good liars.
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Of course it's suspicious. Everything is suspicious. Not voting is suspicious. Voting is suspicious. Being vocal is suspicious. Holding your tongue is suspicious. I suppose that's the nature of the game.
There is nothing to analyze. This game consists of Dominion players, who seem to be on the smarter side of things. So, everything I see typed up might be taken at face value, or they could be intentionally written so as to trick everyone else. Everything I typed is pretty much what I would have typed whether or not I was Mafia. I suspect the same is true for everyone else. Again, we don't have body language or impulsive claims. So, I fail to see what we can analyze in the first day, except that we know that two people in here are pretty good liars.
This.
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Kuil, you keep chiming in to vote without doing analysis or explaining. There's no need for you to vote for anyone yet, a tie wouldn't be declared until everyone had voted and we're nowhere near that OR the deadline. Bandwagon voting like that doesn't really help the town and is slightly suspicious.
Of course it's suspicious. Everything is suspicious. Not voting is suspicious. Voting is suspicious. Being vocal is suspicious. Holding your tongue is suspicious. I suppose that's the nature of the game.
There is nothing to analyze. This game consists of Dominion players, who seem to be on the smarter side of things. So, everything I see typed up might be taken at face value, or they could be intentionally written so as to trick everyone else. Everything I typed is pretty much what I would have typed whether or not I was Mafia. I suspect the same is true for everyone else. Again, we don't have body language or impulsive claims. So, I fail to see what we can analyze in the first day, except that we know that two people in here are pretty good liars.
Here's the problem with that, and I refer back to Voltgloss's comment MUCH earlier:
Assuming you can gain no information first round, and you randomly lynch, 1 of 3 things happen:
1) You lynch town (66% of the time). Mafia kill at night. Day 2 starts. When do you get new information? You're back to square one.
2) You lynch Mafia (~22% the time). Mafia kill at night. Day 2 starts. You got lucky, but still have no new information, and 1/7 of randomly picking the last Mafia that day.
3) You lynch Role (~11% the time). Mafia kill at night. Day 2 starts. You're down a major asset, and have no new information.
You HAVE to build a case. Random play lets the Mafia win. Yes, we're all Dominion players, and cunning, sly players. We're also human, and are prone to imperfect play. But a point-and-lynch system is doomed to fail. You will NEVER gain relevant information that way.
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I would like to point out that the msfia have probably already voted for me. (assuming that I am not mafia myself)
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I would like to point out that the msfia have probably already voted for me. (assuming that I am not mafia myself)
It all depends on their play style. I can imagine a mafia choosing to sit back and enjoy the first round, especially if we all happened to stumble on a townie. I can also see a mafia rabble rousing. You're right though - Looking back, if you turn out to be innocent, I think we'll have gained some very valuable information about the Mafia. But that info will be much more reliable if we kill you than if we don't.
I can't help but notice the predicted role claim has not materialized, despite the growing majority behind this lynching.
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And I just post-count levelled. Not quite as unfortunate as Robz, but I have become a witch in the middle of a game that often degrades into a witch hunt.
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I would like to point out that the msfia have probably already voted for me. (assuming that I am not mafia myself)
Certainly a possibility. Only 3 of us have cast votes, although 2 others have shown intent. I'm of two minds on this:
First, the Mafia may wish to move quickly, hoping to chain-react others into following. That's a plus for them. It also means they don't have to appear the hammer vote, which could be incriminating.
On the flip side, they would really be sticking their neck out early. And given the amount of suspicion that floats around to begin with, that seems unnecessary. Why risk themselves when waiting only benefits them?
On the other hand, and related to above, waiting for town to make the mistake of 3 or 4 voting someone could be HUGELY beneficial, if they can themselves appear to make a strong case to bandwagon. Giving them the chance to Hammer is generally not a good thing.
On the flip side, if the votes are being cast against a Mafia, that puts his partner in a VERY awkward situation. Vote and clear his own name, or don't vote and risk being in hot water?
I don't know. As I believe you to MOST LIKELY be Mafia, I'm inclined to think your partner has not yet voted. If you turn out not to be, then I probably agree that a member of the Mafia had voted for you already (or indicated vote).
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You HAVE to build a case. Random play lets the Mafia win. Yes, we're all Dominion players, and cunning, sly players. We're also human, and are prone to imperfect play. But a point-and-lynch system is doomed to fail. You will NEVER gain relevant information that way.
Not to harp on, but how are our discussions going to lead to anything that isn't random?
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Of course it's suspicious. Everything is suspicious. Not voting is suspicious. Voting is suspicious. Being vocal is suspicious. Holding your tongue is suspicious. I suppose that's the nature of the game.
There is nothing to analyze. This game consists of Dominion players, who seem to be on the smarter side of things. So, everything I see typed up might be taken at face value, or they could be intentionally written so as to trick everyone else. Everything I typed is pretty much what I would have typed whether or not I was Mafia. I suspect the same is true for everyone else. Again, we don't have body language or impulsive claims. So, I fail to see what we can analyze in the first day, except that we know that two people in here are pretty good liars.
Voting too readily without much in the way of explanation is suspicious. Not voting is not suspicious at this stage. Voting for no lynch early on is, it turns out, suspicious.
This is the whole game. We talk and talk and overanalyze each other's words and try to spot a mole. That's really like all that happens. So if you really believe we have no more information than we did when we started, well, you're doing it wrong.
We're also all being evaluated on what we say and do and how helpful we are to the town. You and bozzball's bold assertion that we can't know or do anything at this time is certainly unhelpful to the town. It's bordering on willfully unhelpful.
If you want to be helpful, jump in. Say something controversial and calculated to produce a telling response. Reread the thread and post about things in it that seem suspicious or strange, or connections you see. X never talks to Y. Y was the first one to bring up X and brings X up again every time we stop talking about X. Stuff like that. We are swimming in information, we just have to analyze it. That's the game.
If you think the game is something else, like, say, waiting around for our sane cop, IF we have one, to identify the mafia for us and somehow convince us they are the mafia without becoming a target, please explain. Explain what magic fountain of new information is just beyond the riverbend. Or else buckle down and help us work with what we've got.
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bozzball, re: random
You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means.
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Not to harp on, but how are our discussions going to lead to anything that isn't random?
Through the process of voicing suspicion, defending, accusing, and explaining, we get information about each player from the player's own words and deeds. Through analyzing those words and deeds, we can come to an educated conclusion as to who is more likely to be lying. It's not going to be perfect - unless a Cop investigates a Mafia at night, you're never going to get 100% certainty - but it's still going to be better than pure randomness.
And even if the first day's lynch hits a Townie, reviewing the discussions/actions/positions taken during that first day - through the lens of knowing "person X was a Townie and person Y (killed by the Mafia at night) was also a Townie" provides much more information to be used during Day 2. Each day's discussion becomes important information to be reviewed during each subsequent day, especially as more concrete info (the roles/alignments of those who die) cast those older discussions in new lights.
We can't just sit and wait and rely on a Cop we might not even have. That is handing the Mafia the win.
I can't help but notice the predicted role claim has not materialized, despite the growing majority behind this lynching.
This is not lost on me either, jotheonah. I am interested to hear how this fits into Tables' analysis. I would also like to hear Robz's thoughts on the subject. From where I sit, it's not enough by itself to shake my suspicions of Morgrim, but it's also part of why I don't want the hammer to fall early.
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You HAVE to build a case. Random play lets the Mafia win. Yes, we're all Dominion players, and cunning, sly players. We're also human, and are prone to imperfect play. But a point-and-lynch system is doomed to fail. You will NEVER gain relevant information that way.
Not to harp on, but how are our discussions going to lead to anything that isn't random?
While the end resulting vote is never likely to be 100% accurate (I would hazard a guess that in MOST games of Mafia, a Townie is hit first, if for no other reason than volume.), information mining, and reading into every reaction can be HUGELY beneficial.
My focus in Poli-Sci was Constitutional Law. I mention this because the Constitution is a written document hundreds of years old in which there are STILL many questions unanswered. And interpretations abound about every little detail. But are we more informed of the views of the Authors at the time for their having written it? Of course.
Try this: (Note: Don't try this) Walk up to a random person, and say quite loudly "You need to return the money to the bank that you stole". See what their reaction is. Sure, in person is different than in forum. But accuse someone in any medium, and they will have an unnatural urge to defend themselves. It's human nature. What can be gained from that reaction is ultimately up to you, and those around you.
Now, I advocated "playing nice", and I still feel that way. My first accusation was against Voltgloss, primarily since he came out of the gate playing the exact opposite. Since then, he's become more focused, and most of the time, I feel has presented valid points. My second real case was against Morgrim, although I withheld my vote until more responses from him and others came in. As they've arrived, I've felt more and more confident. Could I be wrong? Sure. I actually think I'll be wrong 33% of the time (See earlier posts). But being right 66% of the time seems pretty good right now. My third accusation came at you Bozzball, because of the issues discussed here. Your willingness and almost wanting of the vote to be random.
Now, the more you post, the more I get the feeling that your cover* of being a Mathematician may be truer than I gave credit for. You appear and act like one. For every value of X, there can be only 1 Y, else the equation is undefined. Is it raining, or has it cleared up? Yes. You take everything at face value, and rather literally. So you may not see value or reason in trying to extract information.
But as pointed out by Jotheonah, that's the game man. If you follow a mathematical formula here, you'll lose. Point-and-Lynch, or lynch in order of signups, or whatever, just won't work. It's find and use whatever info you can, or...
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Try this: (Note: Don't try this)Try this: (Note: Don't try this)
LOL
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I can't help but notice the predicted role claim has not materialized, despite the growing majority behind this lynching.
This is not lost on me either, jotheonah. I am interested to hear how this fits into Tables' analysis. I would also like to hear Robz's thoughts on the subject. From where I sit, it's not enough by itself to shake my suspicions of Morgrim, but it's also part of why I don't want the hammer to fall early.
Yes, this is interesting, because it seemed fairly clear to me that Morgrim was behaving like someone who had a special role, either for good or for evil. No role claim, in my eyes, is more evidence that he is mafia.
FYI, we may yet get a role claim out of him. I hesitate to say this because I don't want to give him ideas, but I assume it already occurred to him if he is mafia. A mafia member who is about be killed may decide he has nothing to lose and just say "I'm the jailkeeper" or whatever, in order to change our minds. Best case scenario with this is that we catch him in the lie--hopefully, the jailkeeper role is really in this game, and that person would probably have to announce themselves, and then we could know Morgrim is lying. The bad thing here is the real jailkeeper would have to out himself, score one for the mafia. But at least we would be able to kill Morgrim with certainty about him.
If he is just a townie, he should not lie about having a role claim just to save himself! Townies win, not by surviving, but by killing the mafia... and codifying false info to save yourself is terrible for the town.
I would vote for Morgrim at this point (having already indicated I would do that eons ago), but will wait for Tables as requested.
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Can't resist. We'll table the vote until he returns. ;D ;D ;D
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If he is just a townie, he should not lie about having a role claim just to save himself! Townies win, not by surviving, but by killing the mafia... and codifying false info to save yourself is terrible for the town.
Well, I see one reason for a townie to lie. If he reveals that he has a role, then this could divert the Mafia's resources. They may waste a kill on him or waste an investigation on him. I'd step forward and risk a bullet if it means saving the doctor or cop or whatever. I'm sure the Mafia knows this, so they actually have the same conundrum that we do.
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If he is just a townie, he should not lie about having a role claim just to save himself! Townies win, not by surviving, but by killing the mafia... and codifying false info to save yourself is terrible for the town.
Well, I see one reason for a townie to lie. If he reveals that he has a role, then this could divert the Mafia's resources. They may waste a kill on him or waste an investigation on him. I'd step forward and risk a bullet if it means saving the doctor or cop or whatever. I'm sure the Mafia knows this, so they actually have the same conundrum that we do.
I suppose that could happen, but it's probably impossible to pull off in this format. If you are a townie and you lie about your role to protect someone else, like the doctor... how would the doctor know that's what you're doing? Wouldn't the doctor just incredulously shout, "I'm the doctor, you liar!" The real doctor would have to have some way of knowing that the pretender was an innocent just trying to act as human shield.
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I suppose that could happen, but it's probably impossible to pull off in this format. If you are a townie and you lie about your role to protect someone else, like the doctor... how would the doctor know that's what you're doing? Wouldn't the doctor just incredulously shout, "I'm the doctor, you liar!" The real doctor would have to have some way of knowing that the pretender was an innocent just trying to act as human shield.
That's a valid point. That would also make the self-professed martyr into a lynching target. Of course, anyone who says, "I'm the doctor," could be lying, right? So, speaking out when someone else makes that claim puts the real Doctor into the spotlight. In fact, the real Doctor could be branded a liar and hung. These fake claims are hard.
I guess we'll cross that bridge when it happens.
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I suppose that could happen, but it's probably impossible to pull off in this format. If you are a townie and you lie about your role to protect someone else, like the doctor... how would the doctor know that's what you're doing? Wouldn't the doctor just incredulously shout, "I'm the doctor, you liar!" The real doctor would have to have some way of knowing that the pretender was an innocent just trying to act as human shield.
That's a valid point. That would also make the self-professed martyr into a lynching target. Of course, anyone who says, "I'm the doctor," could be lying, right? So, speaking out when someone else makes that claim puts the real Doctor into the spotlight. In fact, the real Doctor could be branded a liar and hung. These fake claims are hard.
I guess we'll cross that bridge when it happens.
Complicated by the fact that - if my maths are right - there is a 50-50 chance that if someone falseclaims a role, there is NO ONE else in the game who actually has that role, and so no one to call them out as a liar.
In the end, I'm inclined to think that a Townie falseclaiming is ultimately a negative for the Town because only the Mafia can actually confirm someone's role (without killing them). The only way the Town can confirm or refute a falseclaim is by lynching the claimant. The Mafia can just quietly have their Rolecop investigate during the night and then take appropriate strategic steps during the day/next night. So it seems to me a Townie falseclaiming is more confusing to the Town than to the Mafia, and therefore hurts us more than it helps us.
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I did actually vote for Insomniac, but it didn't take. I suspect because I omitted the colon, and I’m sure the moderator is searching for that (we do provide a lot of text to sift through).
Probably right, which leads me to suggest to the town at large: If you're serious about voting, make sure to use the "vote: name" syntax. I see at least one recent post that suggests it intends a vote (jotheonah's, about Morgrim) but it doesn't use the "vote: name" syntax, which renders it unclear. Apparently (and quite rightly) Axxle is only counting votes that use the "vote: name" syntax.
Yeah, I've been doing a Ctrl-F for "Vote:" and "Unvote" in order to tally the votes. If you can use the bold "Vote: name" syntax that would be great, but I'll start actually going through the thread and reading all the bold text just to be sure I'm not missing anything directed at me. In my next count of the votes I'll be sure to include your vote of Insomniac (unless you changed your vote since then)
I would like to ask for a clarification. I know the Doctor and Jailkeeper can prevent a death. Does that include death from lynching?
My understanding is "no" - they can only prevent a death during the nighttime.
Correct.
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If I make a role claim,two things can happen.
1) I claim mafia, and everybody wonders if I am bluffing, or double bluffing.
2) I claim villager, and everyone assumes I am mafia.
Now that I have said this, if I claimto be a villager, everybody will be back to the drawing board.
That said, I claim to be a villager.
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That said, I claim to be a villager.
Surely you can muster a better defense than "I claim to be a villager." You meant to say, "I am a villager."
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Ok. I am a villager. Agree? Disagree?
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Not voting is not suspicious at this stage.
I disagree. I would think that a true member of the Mafia would be interested in withholding his vote until he can condemn an innocent person. This does not mean that I hold Robz and Insomniac in suspicion based on their lack of votes. I just don't think there's any behavior in here that completely allays suspicion.
My original plan for changing my vote to bozzball was to push the vote up to 3 to see if the Mafia players would jump on and push the vote to 5. Unfortunately, the vote is at 2, as Galzria changed his vote shortly after
So now Morgim has 3 votes. I've yet to see 2 players jump in and push it to5. I'm making a pretty big assumption that the Mafia players would be interested in placing their 2 votes on someone to push the number to 5. I say that, but it's quite possible that the Mafia players already suspected that delaying votes would be suspicious. They may even realize that concentrating their votes on one person would be suspicious also.
So, if I go with the idea that Mafia players would wait to place a vote, then the fact that Mogrim doesn't have a majority yet casts him in the role of Mafia. Paradoxically, Mogrim voted for bozzball early, so if I vote for Mogrim on that assumption, then I have to recognize that my assumption is faulty, since Mogrim contradicted it.
Although, another thought comes to mind. Since you can change your vote at any time, it's actually unlikely that the Mafia will wait to vote for someone. They can accomplish the same thing by changing their vote to tip someone over to majority vote.
There's a reason I don't like to reveal my thought process. To be fair, whoever is in the Mafia probably already thought of these things already. I read a little in the first game and saw the claim that a talking town is more likely to be efficient in lynching. I still kind of question that, but I guess I'll leave my experiments at home and speak more freely. I still don't like saying what I think where the Mafia players can hear. Just because they are more logical gamers doesn't mean they'll think of everything.
After all that, I'm still not convinced in a particular direction.
So if you really believe we have no more information than we did when we started, well, you're doing it wrong.
I don't dispute that there is more information I question the amount of useful information. In fact, I'd say that a lot of these posts are actually harmful to the town, which should be expected when you have two people working in tandem to undermine us.
Hell, in this post, I simultaneously condemned and exonerated Mogrim. Well, not really exonerate. I'll still vote for him if there's a compelling reason. People are eagerly awaiting Tables's analysis. I'll join in on that and see what he has to say.
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No pressure, Tables.
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Not voting is not suspicious at this stage.
I disagree. I would think that a true member of the Mafia would be interested in withholding his vote until he can condemn an innocent person. This does not mean that I hold Robz and Insomniac in suspicion based on their lack of votes. I just don't think there's any behavior in here that completely allays suspicion.
My original plan for changing my vote to bozzball was to push the vote up to 3 to see if the Mafia players would jump on and push the vote to 5. Unfortunately, the vote is at 2, as Galzria changed his vote shortly after
So now Morgim has 3 votes. I've yet to see 2 players jump in and push it to5. I'm making a pretty big assumption that the Mafia players would be interested in placing their 2 votes on someone to push the number to 5. I say that, but it's quite possible that the Mafia players already suspected that delaying votes would be suspicious. They may even realize that concentrating their votes on one person would be suspicious also.
So, if I go with the idea that Mafia players would wait to place a vote, then the fact that Mogrim doesn't have a majority yet casts him in the role of Mafia. Paradoxically, Mogrim voted for bozzball early, so if I vote for Mogrim on that assumption, then I have to recognize that my assumption is faulty, since Mogrim contradicted it.
Although, another thought comes to mind. Since you can change your vote at any time, it's actually unlikely that the Mafia will wait to vote for someone. They can accomplish the same thing by changing their vote to tip someone over to majority vote.
There's a reason I don't like to reveal my thought process. To be fair, whoever is in the Mafia probably already thought of these things already. I read a little in the first game and saw the claim that a talking town is more likely to be efficient in lynching. I still kind of question that, but I guess I'll leave my experiments at home and speak more freely. I still don't like saying what I think where the Mafia players can hear. Just because they are more logical gamers doesn't mean they'll think of everything.
After all that, I'm still not convinced in a particular direction.
So if you really believe we have no more information than we did when we started, well, you're doing it wrong.
I don't dispute that there is more information I question the amount of useful information. In fact, I'd say that a lot of these posts are actually harmful to the town, which should be expected when you have two people working in tandem to undermine us.
Hell, in this post, I simultaneously condemned and exonerated Mogrim. Well, not really exonerate. I'll still vote for him if there's a compelling reason. People are eagerly awaiting Tables's analysis. I'll join in on that and see what he has to say.
To be fair, following your line of thought was exactly why I changed to Morgrim from Bozzball at that time. While I was (and am still) suspicious of Bozzball, I am much more so of Morgrim. I didn't think it was fair to set Bozzball up to fall, and my initial vote was the first cast in that direction. I'm still willing to go back if he does anything more incriminating, but I'm not ready to put him in a position to be lynched quite yet.
I wonder though. What would the Mafia gain by dividing us? If Bozzball has 2, and Morgrim has 2 (with me at the moment being the Votecast to 3 on either), would it be fair to hazard a guess that there is NOT a Mafia on both sides right now? There are 4 no casts, although 2 lean Morgrim....
Let me clarify, since I'm circling myself and getting confused:
IF, either Morgrim or Bozzball are Mafia, that leaves 1 more.
IF, Morgrim and Bozzball lead in votes, their partner is likely to cast a vote for the other person.
GIVEN, Morgrim has cast for Bozzball shortly after I did, and then the "ball" started rolling, he picked up to 3.
GIVEN, Bozzball has cast randomly, at Robz888.
THEN, to my mind, Morgrim is more likely to be suspect, yes?
A caveat to that: Bozzball could be sitting in the wings waiting to switch his vote. His partner would most likely be someone who has cast their vote already, not someone waiting. Otherwise, they could bump Morgrim up to 5 now (although they may be waiting for Tables to try and withhold suspicion).
Given all that (And I do apologize if I was unclear above. If so, just ask and I'll try my best to straighten out my thoughts), I think my vote on Morgrim right now will stand. But I am VERY much still concerned that Bozzball might have it goin' on.
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Ok, even rereading it again, that's all confusing to me still... and I wrote it! 8)
I'm on the fence between Bozzball and Morgrim. I'm leaning Morgrim. I didn't think it was fair to put Bozzball at 3 votes, in case he ISN'T the Mafia, whereas I feel more comfortable running Morgrim's vote count up (especially to 3, because I BELIEVE him to be Mafia, and don't think he can be 2-vote hammered (which appears to be the case)).
Further, I find Morgrim's vote on Bozzball much more intriguing. It looks like a "point the finger at the next most likely suspect and hope it stands" move. Kinda like the Theory/TINAS battle over in M-I. I'm not saying it IS, but it could be. Bozzball on the other hand, has stayed more or less completely away (to the point of semi-defending) from Morgrim. Unless they are BOTH Mafia, this is a VERY sly move on his part if he IS, and Morgrim is not.
So Morgrim > Bozzball for me right now.
Given that I don't believe the Mafia would want the vote split unless one of them was under fire (and I believe one is), I have to look closely at the statements of those staying away from Morgrim.
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Vote Count 1-3
Morgrim7 (3) - Voltgloss, jotheonah, Galzria
bozzball (2) - Morgrim7, Kuildeous
Robz888 (1) - bozzball
Not Voting (3) - Robz888, Insomniac, Tables
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch
Deadline: Monday, May 28, 2012 6pm PDT
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I wonder though. What would the Mafia gain by dividing us?
If I understand correctly, if there is not a plurality at deadline, then there is no lynching.
If so, then a tie vote is just as bad for the town as not lynching (it still never ceases to slay me just how wrong that sounds). Forcing a tie vote is far less suspicious than casting "No Lynching" on the first day and can easily be done by splitting their votes.
I may be reading too much into that, but I recall the discussion on why it's bad for the town to not lynch on the first day. If we cannot come to a consensus by the deadline, we may be without a lynching. The Mafia certainly wouldn't mind seeing that outcome, though trying to keep things tied up would be extremely risky, especially with 7 possibly swingy votes.
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Further, I find Morgrim's vote on Bozzball much more intriguing. It looks like a "point the finger at the next most likely suspect and hope it stands" move. Kinda like the Theory/TINAS battle over in M-I. I'm not saying it IS, but it could be. Bozzball on the other hand, has stayed more or less completely away (to the point of semi-defending) from Morgrim. Unless they are BOTH Mafia, this is a VERY sly move on his part if he IS, and Morgrim is not.
So Morgrim > Bozzball for me right now.
Given that I don't believe the Mafia would want the vote split unless one of them was under fire (and I believe one is), I have to look closely at the statements of those staying away from Morgrim.
I woul like to point out that I voted for bozzball before Kuildeous, thus I was the first person to vote for him. Ergo, I voted for him not knowing that another person would vote for.him.
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Further, I find Morgrim's vote on Bozzball much more intriguing. It looks like a "point the finger at the next most likely suspect and hope it stands" move. Kinda like the Theory/TINAS battle over in M-I. I'm not saying it IS, but it could be. Bozzball on the other hand, has stayed more or less completely away (to the point of semi-defending) from Morgrim. Unless they are BOTH Mafia, this is a VERY sly move on his part if he IS, and Morgrim is not.
So Morgrim > Bozzball for me right now.
Given that I don't believe the Mafia would want the vote split unless one of them was under fire (and I believe one is), I have to look closely at the statements of those staying away from Morgrim.
I woul like to point out that I voted for bozzball before Kuildeous, thus I was the first person to vote for him. Ergo, I voted for him not knowing that another person would vote for.him.
Recognized.
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I wonder though. What would the Mafia gain by dividing us?
If I understand correctly, if there is not a plurality at deadline, then there is no lynching.
If so, then a tie vote is just as bad for the town as not lynching (it still never ceases to slay me just how wrong that sounds). Forcing a tie vote is far less suspicious than casting "No Lynching" on the first day and can easily be done by splitting their votes.
I may be reading too much into that, but I recall the discussion on why it's bad for the town to not lynch on the first day. If we cannot come to a consensus by the deadline, we may be without a lynching. The Mafia certainly wouldn't mind seeing that outcome, though trying to keep things tied up would be extremely risky, especially with 7 possibly swingy votes.
As soon as there is a simple majority (by more than half the players alive) for a player there will be a lynching. As soon as there is a simple majority for "No Lynch" there will not be a lynching and we will end the day. If there is no simple majority, ie just a plurality, when we reach the deadline there will be no lynching.
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I woul like to point out that I voted for bozzball before Kuildeous, thus I was the first person to vote for him. Ergo, I voted for him not knowing that another person would vote for.him.
This is essentially why it's a near certainty that Bozzball and Morgrim are not both mafia.
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I woul like to point out that I voted for bozzball before Kuildeous, thus I was the first person to vote for him. Ergo, I voted for him not knowing that another person would vote for.him.
The italicized part is true. But the bolded part is false.
Morgrim voted for bozzball before Kuildeous, but after Galzria. (Galzria's vote was in post #138. Morgrim's was in post #143. This was well before Galzria switched his vote to Morgrim, in post #170.)
Ergo, Morgrim voted for bozzball knowing full well that another person would vote for bozzball - because another person (Galzria) had already done so.
The Mafia, by definition, must lie to keep themselves safe. Seems to me that's exactly what Morgrim is trying. Except... he just slipped up.
I still want to hear from Tables. But if someone votes Morgrim to 4 now, I'm not going to unvote to stop the hammer. This, to me, is the clincher.
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Going dark for a few hours. Have a game to coach. Don't let anything exciting happen while I'm away!
-- Also, anyone wondering if Insomniac got hammered after the wedding, and is having a "Hangover" movie type day? ;) ;D
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I woul like to point out that I voted for bozzball before Kuildeous, thus I was the first person to vote for him. Ergo, I voted for him not knowing that another person would vote for.him.
The italicized part is true. But the bolded part is false.
Morgrim voted for bozzball before Kuildeous, but after Galzria. (Galzria's vote was in post #138. Morgrim's was in post #143. This was well before Galzria switched his vote to Morgrim, in post #170.)
Ergo, Morgrim voted for bozzball knowing full well that another person would vote for bozzball - because another person (Galzria) had already done so.
The Mafia, by definition, must lie to keep themselves safe. Seems to me that's exactly what Morgrim is trying. Except... he just slipped up.
I still want to hear from Tables. But if someone votes Morgrim to 4 now, I'm not going to unvote to stop the hammer. This, to me, is the clincher.
So I am ruined then? Oh well. What will happen when you find out that I am mafia?
And more importanaly, who will.the mafia kill now that I am dead?
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Good to see people waiting, not being hasty. I'm a little concerned Morgrim has somewhat given up the fight, although I'd point out to everyone else we have over a week left: We might not need ALL of it, but look at the discussion we've already said: You can hardly say we aren't getting any use out of our time, right?
That being said, I haven't yet made progress with my analysis. Been playing Arkham Horror with all the expansions mixed in (hint: Don't do this. It's fun, but takes forever), and now it's nearing bedtime. But we still have time, so... I'll try to be quick, but not rush. However I suggest everyone reviews what's already happened, and see if they see anything of particular interest, if you haven't already. Depending on how much time you can invest, anything from a skim to a full note taking analysis can be useful.
I realise delaying my analysis and essentially doing nothing is somewhat suspicious, but, well, real world I'm afraid :-/.
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Well, for the record, no I was not lying. That was a real blunder. I shold have looked more carefully at the previous posts. (not that you will believe me, you will see this as a weak attempt to get some quick unvotes. This I am ok with).
@Tables, no, I have not given up the fght, but what more is there to say? Everything they suspect me for I habe tried to rebut an apparently have made no progress.
Anyway, I am going on a run, and then going to bed, so do not get on me for not posting.
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Good to see people waiting, not being hasty. I'm a little concerned Morgrim has somewhat given up the fight, although I'd point out to everyone else we have over a week left: We might not need ALL of it, but look at the discussion we've already said: You can hardly say we aren't getting any use out of our time, right?
That being said, I haven't yet made progress with my analysis. Been playing Arkham Horror with all the expansions mixed in (hint: Don't do this. It's fun, but takes forever), and now it's nearing bedtime. But we still have time, so... I'll try to be quick, but not rush. However I suggest everyone reviews what's already happened, and see if they see anything of particular interest, if you haven't already. Depending on how much time you can invest, anything from a skim to a full note taking analysis can be useful.
I realise delaying my analysis and essentially doing nothing is somewhat suspicious, but, well, real world I'm afraid :-/.
Tables lack of commitment to Morgrim doesn't really surprise me. As I noted in Reply #154, he is probably the most likely candidate to be Morgrim's fellow mafia. He subtly defended Morgrim earlier. And in fact if Tables were mafia, this is what I would expect of him now: Talk about Morgrim being suspicious, but not actually commit to killing his fellow mafia.
To be clear, I'm not denouncing Tables, but I see him being a fellow mafia with Morgrim as one of the more plausible scenarios. I mean, based on where the votes are, it would have to be Tables, Kuildeous, or Insomniac, right? It will be interesting to see if any of them do vote for Morgrim. That might tell us something.
Will it bother anyone if I put a fourth vote on Morgrim? I have intended to do it for awhile but held off due to some requests. We do have plenty of time, and I am open to learning more, but... I don't really see things moving a different way at this point.
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Will it bother anyone if I put a fourth vote on Morgrim? I have intended to do it for awhile but held off due to some requests. We do have plenty of time, and I am open to learning more, but... I don't really see things moving a different way at this point.
Speaking as someone who originally made such a request, I now have no problem with you placing the fourth vote. Per my last post, things are pretty much clinched for me.
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Okay, VOTE: MORGRIM 7
I am comfortable lynching him. If others are not, that's understandable. They may retract their votes if they like. We have plenty of time. But he's done more than enough to merit votes so far, in my view. So here we go.
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I'm not comfortable with a 4th vote being on Morgrim. Not because I don't want him lynched (I'll get to that later), but because I think we should definitely use at least a few more days for discussion first. At least until everyone is sure they're happy with this choice.
I defended him earlier, but not much. Somehow, defending someone is more suspicious than attacking someone - even if you think the person being attacked is not scum. Having made some more notes (up to page 6), I have to say things don't look great for him. My notes on him currently are pretty much a list of 'this is strange', 'That's interesting' and very few things that can really be said in his defence. The one thing he has going for him is, I can give him newbie benefit of the doubt.
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Well, now I know that my method of play has not worked. hmm...
Vote: Morgrim7. And that is vote #5. Voltgloss, jotheonah, galzria, Robz888, and myself. My final.wish: Lynch Tables.. He is mafia. Goodbye, citizens. I move on to a better life...
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I have other suspicions about who is mafia if you really do turn out to be town. But I think I'll sleep better if I wait until the next daylight to voice them.
Morgrim, I do not see how it benefited you to lynch yourself when you still had a chance of salvation. I can't think of any way that's not poor play. Axxle, idk if I still have the option now that the 5th vote has been cast, but Unvote
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I have other suspicions about who is mafia if you really do turn out to be town. But I think I'll sleep better if I wait until the next daylight to voice them.
Morgrim, I do not see how it benefited you to lynch yourself when you still had a chance of salvation. I can't think of any way that's not poor play. Axxle, idk if I still have the option now that the 5th vote has been cast, but Unvote
Fairly sure under the rules that Morgrim's selfhammer triggers the lynch, with no more chance for unvoting. Axxle's call, of course.
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I have other suspicions about who is mafia if you really do turn out to be town. But I think I'll sleep better if I wait until the next daylight to voice them.
Morgrim, I do not see how it benefited you to lynch yourself when you still had a chance of salvation. I can't think of any way that's not poor play. Axxle, idk if I still have the option now that the 5th vote has been cast, but Unvote
Here's how it benefited him--it caused you to take back your vote. If that's legal. I don't know.
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RIght, that occurred to me. But assuming it's not legal, which is my instinct, than that was a dumb play. Because he wasn't hanged yet, and it's possible Tables' comments and subsequent discussion could have exonerated him. No matter what team you're on your own survival is in your own self interest.
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Am I still allowed to post? I am not dead…yet.
I had no chance of survival. Everyone suspected me. Tables was not enough.
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RIght, that occurred to me. But assuming it's not legal, which is my instinct, than that was a dumb play. Because he wasn't hanged yet, and it's possible Tables' comments and subsequent discussion could have exonerated him. No matter what team you're on your own survival is in your own self interest.
Your own survival isn't as big a self-interest though, if you're town, than if you're mafia. I was under the impression that votes could change until axxle ruled. Axxle? Help?
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As soon as an option has a majority of votes, votes are locked. You can still speak until I say the day is over and tally the votes. Then it's night.
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As soon as an option has a majority of votes, votes are locked. You can still speak until I say the day is over and tally the votes. Then it's night.
I would take that to mean jtheonah can NOT take back his vote.
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Well then, farewell Morgrim. We hardly knew thee. My instinct at this point is that he wasn't mafia after all, but I guess we'll know soon enough. At least I'm confident he wasn't a town role.
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As soon as an option has a majority of votes, votes are locked. You can still speak until I say the day is over and tally the votes. Then it's night.
I would take that to mean jtheonah can NOT take back his vote.
Correct. I'll tally the votes in an hourish to give some time before night to discuss whatever.
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It annoys me because, as a town player, he's denied us the potentially interesting info of who would have cast the last vote for him.
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Well then, farewell Morgrim. We hardly knew thee. My instinct at this point is that he wasn't mafia after all, but I guess we'll know soon enough. At least I'm confident he wasn't a town role.
Well... if he knew it would mean he was dead for certain, it was illogical in either case.
Let's say he is town: He causes the death of someone he knows is not mafia (himself). Since he wins only if both mafia die, this is not a good move. Lynching him was looking likely, but it was far from certain.
Let's say he is mafia: His goal is for at least 1 mafia to survive, and we would find out whether he was mafia or not as soon as he died anyway. So why he would want to die is beyond me.
If he thought you could take back votes, it looks like a smart (but desperate thing to do) if he's mafia. But we'll know for sure very soon.
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It annoys me because, as a town player, he's denied us the potentially interesting info of who would have cast the last vote for him.
That is unfortunate. That fifth vote could have been very telling. I suppose we shall bid him a fond farewell as we string him up. And find out who's still alive in the morning.
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It annoys me because, as a town player, he's denied us the potentially interesting info of who would have cast the last vote for him.
Oh I know, I know, I know, I know, I know.
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Let's say he is mafia: His goal is for at least 1 mafia to survive, and we would find out whether he was mafia or not as soon as he died anyway. So why he would want to die is beyond me.
I could see this happening if he were Mafia. Two weeks is an awfully long to wait to see who gets lynched. If he's guilty with four votes (and a likelihood of a fifth vote), then he may end the agony. It's all speculation, of course. Time to find out in the morning.
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Unvote. Possibilities, dreams of not being lynched...ec. By the way, am not guilty at all, and my vote was not to end agony.
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If my unvote can't save you now, what makes you think yours can?
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Summary of the latest developments:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEr0EAcSWcc (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEr0EAcSWcc)
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Oops. Misread Axxle's post. Well, goodbye all. Curious, who still thinks I am mafia? And, who do you think will be killed tonight? Please keep my suggestion about Tables in mind...
If I could vote, that would be my vote now. Remember me...
I have sent the Witch I have hired to track down and curse the Duchess for bringing this madness apon this town, which has been my home for a long time now. I believe the duches is a Theif and a murderer, and should be thrown in the dungeon, awaiting a cruel fate by the Torturer. May the evil Duchess be forever recorded in history as an evil, selfish, murderer.
And now my friends, farewell. I await my ever creeping doom with horror, but, in my heart of hearts I know that this act is with good reason. It is, non-the-less, the cruel murder of an innocent human being.
Alas, be not disheartened at my diparture, as we still have a chance at capturing an disposing of the enemy. I move on to a better place. Remember me......
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Vote Count 1-4
Morgrim7 (5) - Voltgloss, jotheonah, Galzria, Robz888, Morgrim7
bozzball (1) - Kuildeous
Robz888 (1) - bozzball
Not Voting (2) - Insomniac, Tables
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch
Morgrim7 is having a quiet afternoon in his home counting the coppers he's earned for the day. Suddenly he hears a clamor at the door. Voltgloss, jotheonah, Galzria, and Robz888 are yelling at him to come out and face the town's justice. Morgrim7 opens the door and the townsfolk drag him out and take him to a nearby tree. There they realize they don't have rope to hang him. Morgrim7 offers to get the rope from his shop (how helpful!) and the townsfolk successfully lynch Morgrim7.
The townsfolk search his possessions and cannot find that Mafia Club Card that all Mafia members carry with them to identify each other. Oops! He was just a Town Vanilla.
Morgrim7, the Town Vanilla, has been lynched. We will now have 48 hours of night. Mafia can now PM each other and discuss tactics and who they will kill. Roles, please PM me with your decisions. You may not post in this thread or discuss the game until Day 2 starts (approx Friday at 7pm PST), and the dead may not talk until the game is over.
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The village wakes up to an ordinary summer day. That is, until, one of you come across Tables' cold body on the ground clearly pummeled to death by a couple Goons. In his shirt pocket you see the badge of a Town Cop. A shudder runs down everyone's spine. If even the cops aren't safe, who is?
Tables, the Town Cop, is killed by the Mafia
Day Two Begins
(Will be out of touch traveling for much of the weekend until Tuesday, I'll try to keep up with the vote tallying when I can though)
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Ouch. Losing one of our roles is going to sting. I was going to analyze Mogrim's insistence to investigate Tables, but that's out the window.
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... Wow. I think Kuildeous summed it up quite well. Ouch. I don't have time to write up any in-depth thoughts (coaching for the next ~4 hours), and not quite sure where to start now.
My first instinct is to look closely at all 4 of us (yes, myself included) that voted Morgrim. I'll do the same when I get home. I don't know how many Mafia voted, but I have to believe 100% at least 1 did.
So that's where I'll be starting. Got to go dark for now. Will offer full thoughts tonight.
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I'd be more suspicious of the third and fourth people who voted for him. If either of the first two are Mafia, then they got lucky in convicting him.
I'm also suspicious of the ones who didn't vote. Are they townies who were waiting until closer to the deadline, or are they Mafia hedging their bets and getting lucky when Mogrim ended the day?
I'm also curious about those who unvoted when Mogrim started accumulating votes.
I'm out tonight and will be busy for much of Saturday. I spent time poring over Tables's posts to see if Mogrim's suspicions were justified. I need to go back over the other messages.
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I'm in the process of poring over the first day's posts. It's slow going, as there's a lot to wade through. Aiming to get my analysis up either late tonight or in the morning.
The one thought I have that may help focus our collective efforts:
Remember that the Mafia posters knew both Morgrim and Tables to be townies.
That's the information we have now that we didn't have during Day 1, and we should review everyone's posts through that lens.
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Just checking in; still out for a while, but one thing I can't get past in my mind:
Tables: Why?
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Tables: Why?
At a guess, I'd say it's because he was one of the most experienced Mafia players. Even without being a cop, he was probably one of the biggest threats.
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So losing the cop sucks but here is my reply (sorry for the delay in getting back to everyone) This is where I stand, Tables getting killed doesn't change anything for me
Voltgloss - Stats on no lynch first left out jailkeeper/doctor/cop involvement. Claimed he would unvote if someone else voted for
Morgrim, gave Robz888 permission to do so, did not unvote. Retracted the "unhammer" almost immediatly after offering it.
The offering makes him seem non mafia if you ignore the unhammer
Robz888 - For being the last one other than Morgrim to vote for Morgrim, he is the catalyst that pushed Morgrims lynch to the top,
Additionally for someone who always comes out guns blazing he really didnt, I dont think he's trying a new tactic either but
Im not sure hes as much a threat as Voltgloss.
Now I know the accusations are gonna come my way as well for not voting but I would like to preemptively say isn't it a benefit as mafia to vote
early against someone who you know isn't mafia. If I was Mafia I would have known that Morgrim was not and thus jumped on that bandwagon sooner
Vote: Voltgloss
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Voltgloss - Stats on no lynch first left out jailkeeper/doctor/cop involvement. Claimed he would unvote if someone else voted for
Morgrim, gave Robz888 permission to do so, did not unvote. Retracted the "unhammer" almost immediatly after offering it.
The offering makes him seem non mafia if you ignore the unhammer
Interesting. I note that you left out my detailed reasons for retracting the unhammer, i.e., catching Morgrim in an admitted lie.
Now I know the accusations are gonna come my way as well for not voting but I would like to preemptively say isn't it a benefit as mafia to vote
early against someone who you know isn't mafia. If I was Mafia I would have known that Morgrim was not and thus jumped on that bandwagon sooner
Interesting. The only substantive post you made during the entirety of Day 1 was to say that you sided with the thoughts that Morgrim was Mafia. In other words, jumping on the bandwagon the first chance you had.
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Voltgloss - Stats on no lynch first left out jailkeeper/doctor/cop involvement. Claimed he would unvote if someone else voted for
Morgrim, gave Robz888 permission to do so, did not unvote. Retracted the "unhammer" almost immediatly after offering it.
The offering makes him seem non mafia if you ignore the unhammer
Interesting. I note that you left out my detailed reasons for retracting the unhammer, i.e., catching Morgrim in an admitted lie.
Now I know the accusations are gonna come my way as well for not voting but I would like to preemptively say isn't it a benefit as mafia to vote
early against someone who you know isn't mafia. If I was Mafia I would have known that Morgrim was not and thus jumped on that bandwagon sooner
Interesting. The only substantive post you made during the entirety of Day 1 was to say that you sided with the thoughts that Morgrim was Mafia. In other words, jumping on the bandwagon the first chance you had.
I did "jump" on the bandwagon but I didn't vote because I didn't want the hammer to fall too soon which I think it did. And I only made one substantive claim because as I pointed out I attended a wedding IRL
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I was going to say exactly the same thing as Insomniac. Robz and Voltgloss definitely initiated 90% of the suspicion against Morgrim, pushed the conversation back toward him when it started to wander elsewhere, and, as Insomniac pointed out, cast the penultimate votes. Robz began the Morgrim chatter at a time when he was being targeted for various reasons (Reply 83). He then jumped on Morgrim for the rather small thing of quickly jumping off the no lynch bandwagon - a bandwagon we all agree was bad and which I jumped off of just as quickly. When Morgrim suspicion starts to flag, VOltgloss comes in with the very stirring post #114.
Robz started the suspicion but delayed his vote - perhaps hoping we'd remember the latter but forget the former? Then Voltgloss told Robz not to vote yet and said he wouldn't vote, but after catching Morgrim in a lie, he voted. We all said we would wait for Tables' analysis. Tables had a history of defending Morgrim. Before the analysis we were all waiting for arrived, Robz, with Volt's support, put down his vote.
Was Morgrim's lie (or, as it turns out, blunder) worth all that?
Both Robz and VG are experienced players, and I think our mafia's play so far has been advanced enough to suggest a veteran.
Some possible objections, and rebuttals:
1) Voltgloss was the one who first pointed out Robz' disparity in posting attitudes and cast early suspicion on him. So if that was all an act to throw us off the trail, it was a gutsy one. But that conflict disappated fairly quickly, and I do believe these two to be capable of that level of deception and complex play.
2) Voltgloss went to a lot of trouble to explain why a no-lynch vote was bad for the town and good for the mafia, at a point when no one had shared that viewpoint and at least two of us were content to ignorantly sabotage ourselves. A Mafioso would not have missed that opportunity - he would have at least waited to see if the rest of the town jumped on the no-lynch bandwagon.
Of course, this is something I said about Voltgloss early on:
Of course, another potential mafia tactic would be to set yourself up as the group's leader by being very vocal, thus giving yourself a position of safety in rounds to come.
And also, though no lynch is bad for the town, it's not as good for the mafia as lynching a townie is, right?
All in all, these two, as a team, are my top suspects right now. I think this narrative pretty well jives with what went down.
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Re: Why Tables? Could he have given some tell that he was the cop that we didn't catch but the mafia did, or did they really just get lucky?
I think I've learned my lesson about hasty voting, so I'll be waiting this round until the conversation has run its course.
I guess I should pre-emptively defend my part in Morgrim's death. By the time he cast his vote, I was starting to believe he really was just a townie. But I wanted to see how it played out to get an idea of the power players. The reason I bit my tongue when I first started to suspect Robz and Voltgloss was that before Morgrim went and lynched himself, I was eager to see who would jump in with the hammer and how insistently anybody would fight for his death if public opinion started to sway the other way. All information we were deprived of, tragically.
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To reiterate/clarify: Looking at Table's past analyses, there was reason to believe he would debunk the Morgrim is mafia hypothesis. When Tables delayed in posting, Robz and Voltgloss both turned up the pressure on the lynch, despite agreements we would wait to hear out Tables. Then Tables dies, and the contents of that analysis (and all future analyses) with him. Very, very suspicious.
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FYI, I'm going to be out and about a lot this weekend, so I may not be as quick as I'd like to be with replies.
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My first suspicion was on Robz, as well. I had some weird vibes in rereading Voltgloss's posts, but Robz stands out more. I was toying with the idea that they were both Mafia, which kind of freaks me out to see that two other people are veering that way.
If those two are not Mafia, then the real Mafia are pretty damn good at manipulating us.
Although, since they are veteran players, I would not think that they would both vote to lynch the same person...not unless it were a desperation ploy, and the only other person that had multiple votes was bozzball, so desperation is not a factor. Hmm, come to think of it, I'm not so sure that they both are Mafia. But, Robz does raise more suspicion in me than Voltgloss does.
I did check and saw that Voltgloss was the first to vote for Mogrim, so he didn't really have much of a bandwagon to hop on. If V is Mafia, then he got pretty lucky with that vote. Robz tops my list because he fought pretty aggressively for Mogrim's head but did not yet vote. Opinion was stacking up against Mogrim pretty quickly, so I think Robz could have waited it out rather than place the fourth vote.
Though Robz is at the top of my list, I am also leaning heavily toward Galzria. He originally voted for bozzball but switched to Mogrim. I believe he was the third vote to doom Mogrim. It's a comfortable position for Mafia: He didn't jump in there early, and he didn't wait too late to place the bet.
So, I guess in order, my top suspects are:
Robz
Galzria
Voltgloss
These are not set in stone, and I'm willing to entertain other ideas.
I don't think that Tables was killed for being on the right track. I would imagine that killing off the person who is on the right track would convince the other townspeople to follow that lead. I still think Tables was killed for being experienced. His potential of pissing in the Mafia's cheerios was the greatest. It just so happened he had a town role. A double loss for us.
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Okay, wow! I have a LOT to say. Please, everyone, read it. I think it's important.
Why Tables?: It's very, very obvious why he was killed. He was killed because the mafia want to kill the people who look the most innocent. They want to spare the highly suspicious, so that we townies might lynch the wrong people. Tables was killed because he was one of the 2 or so most likely to be innocent people left in the game. Here's why: he had the opportunity to vote for Morgirm, and didn't. There were already 3 votes against Morgrim, and it was known that I would soon supply another, but that I was waiting for Tables. Then, in Post #213, he declined to say anything of value or cast a vote for Morgrim. To me, this made him a likely mafia associate of Morgrim--but then Morgrim wasn't mafia. Which means Tables made the right call. If Tables had been mafia, it would have been the easiest thing for him to get on the bandwagon and kill Morgrim. The fact that he didn't spoke well of him when we all learned Morgrim was not mafia. So the mafia killed him in the night because he was almost certainly innocent. Him and Kuildeous both had the opportunity to vote for Morgrim but didn't, so I expected one of them to die. The mafia want to leave alive the Morgrim voters, because it is highly likely at least one (and possibly both) of the mafia are in their midst. More on that in a minute.
Oh, and I assume the fact that Tables was also the cop is just a horrible, horrible stroke of bad luck for us.
Why Morgrim?: I am quite surprised he wasn't mafia, to be frank. I really did think he was, from very early on in the game. His behaviour after I accused him only made him seem more and more suspicious. Everything he did was suspicious. So, I for one thought we had lynched ourselves an early mafia. But we didn't! That's the game.
Some people are wondering why my vote for Morgrim came at the time it did. As I've stated before, I am a reluctant but firm voter. I will make accusations, but I don't generally flip flop from one vote to another. When I have made up my mind, I cast a vote, and only really compelling evidence overturns it. I would have voted for him before I actually did, but someone asked me to wait until Tables had weighed in. Tables did weigh in (Post #213), it just wasn't anything useful. So I cast the 4th vote. It was important for me to cast the 4th vote I thought, rather than the 5th vote, because it was going to be important to see who the 5th vote was. Everyone knew I was going to vote for Morgrim, but would Insomniac cast the kill vote? Would Kuildeous do it? I wanted to find out, and I knew I would vote Morgrim anyway, so I put the vote on him once I realized Tables wasn't going to do anything (and really, I suspected both Morgrim and Tables were mafia).
Now, Morgrim robbed us entirely of finding out who that 5th vote would have been, so again, a horrible, horrible thing. Truly, we are in not-so-great shape on Day 2, here.
Who's next?: The mafia knew Morgrim was innocent. This means that given the chance to vote for him without casting suspicion on themselves, they would have easily voted for him. There are four people who voted for Morgrim: Voltgloss, Galzria, myself, and jtheonah. Certainly, these are all suspicious people, now, and I know that includes me. I expect your suspicion. I definitely deserve it. I was way, way wrong about Morgrim.
However, I'm not convinced that Insomniac had the opportunity to vote for Morgrim, because it didn't seem like he was active at the time the vote was happening. So really, he could be a mafia who just never got the opportunity to get on the Morgirm bandwagon when it was really rolling. This is true for Bozzball, but probably to a lesser extent. I probably still suspect Bozzball more on the count of shady behavior than anything else.
Tables and Kuildeous would be mostly in the clear in my view, but Tables is dead. So Kuildeous is the only one I don't truly suspect.
So, from my perspective: Galzria or Voltgloss or jtheonah (or me! you say) probably have at least one mafia between them. I mean, if Insomniac and Bozzball are the mafia, the town is totally outplaying itself :-[
Between Galzria, Voltgloss, and jtheonah, I don't know who is more suspicious than the other. Here are some thoughts on each:
Is it Galzria? Well, Galzria played the most erratic game of these people. He jumped around a bit. He suspected Morgrim, then he liked Morgrim, then he voted Bozzball, then he switched to Morgrim. His vote for Morgrim was #3, and was probably the most transparently bandwagon-y. But then again, it was so bandwagon-y, I actually have a hard time believing it was a mafia move. Surely they would be more cautious than that? But maybe not.
Is it Voltgloss? Voltgloss's posts and point-of-view seem very similar to mine. He was a true believer against Morgrim, providing key early ammo (along with me) to do the Morgrim vote. And the fact that he was so in sync with me this past round was great at the time, but gives me a lot of pause now that we were wrong. He backed me up more than once, and I appreciated that. But of course now that looks more like a mafia trying to win my trust.
Is it jtheonah? Okay, of these people, I suspected jtheonah the least. I was getting a strong townie read from him. But, this very recent post from him really, really, really bothered me:
I guess I should pre-emptively defend my part in Morgrim's death. By the time he cast his vote, I was starting to believe he really was just a townie. But I wanted to see how it played out to get an idea of the power players. The reason I bit my tongue when I first started to suspect Robz and Voltgloss was that before Morgrim went and lynched himself, I was eager to see who would jump in with the hammer and how insistently anybody would fight for his death if public opinion started to sway the other way. All information we were deprived of, tragically.
Coulda, shoulda, woulda, buddy... but I don't buy this at all. If you were starting to unsuspect Morgrim, then please take back your vote!!! I don't see any hard evidence in your posts that you no longer suspected Morgrim. So, it's really a transparently mafia thing to do, to vote for someone and be publicly all for killing them... but later, oh you confess your doubts and other people are suspicious. Your post reads to me like you are a mafia who knows that the Morgrim vote made you suspicious, and you need to damage control immediately. It makes you much, much, much more suspicious.
Is it Insomniac or Bozzball? It would not at all surprise me if one of the mafia lurks here. It's true they should have voted Morgrim, but perhaps they didn't have a chance or they recognized how suspicious it would have been, and were hoping Tables and Kuildeous would do that job for them.
Is it Kuildeous? No. I really don't think it is.
Is it Robz888? Of course not! In all seriousness, though, I recognize that you'll be suspicious of me. I am a Morgrim voter--you could even call me the Morgrim voter. I can only say that I voted for him because I sincerely believed he was mafia, far and away more than I thought that about anyone else. I was wrong, and that's a fair criticism. I don't think the timing of my vote is a fair criticism, though, since it was no surprise: I said when it was coming, and it wasn't the kill vote, anyway. I was hoping to gain more info by being 4th instead of 5th.
Since I suspect suspicion, and probably some votes for me this round, and I will be gone most of tomorrow, I want to say: It only takes 4 votes to kill, now! Please, please, please do not cast the 4th vote against me without giving me a chance to address you.
Okay, those are all my thoughts for now. Off to bed for me! Please read, and I would love to read thoughts from others.
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If you were starting to unsuspect Morgrim, then please take back your vote!!!
Robz already made this point later in his post, but I wanted to reiterate that it only takes 4 votes to lynch someone now. Since both Mafia members are still alive, they only need to wait for 2 votes and pile on to ensure the death of another victim. Now, that alone is suspicious, but if they do it and then assassinate someone in the night, then they'll have 40% of the votes in day 3. All it takes in day 3 is for a townie to slip up and cast the wrong vote.
So we need to make sure that no one has 2 votes unless we are absolutely certain that is the direction we want to take.
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Heh, Robz did almost exactly what I was intending last night: A break down step by step of each person. Sadly by the time I got home and started, I couldn't put two thoughts together to make a coherent sentence. :-[ So, with that said, I'll start putting everything together now. Give me a few...
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Is it jtheonah? Okay, of these people, I suspected jtheonah the least. I was getting a strong townie read from him. But, this very recent post from him really, really, really bothered me:
I guess I should pre-emptively defend my part in Morgrim's death. By the time he cast his vote, I was starting to believe he really was just a townie. But I wanted to see how it played out to get an idea of the power players. The reason I bit my tongue when I first started to suspect Robz and Voltgloss was that before Morgrim went and lynched himself, I was eager to see who would jump in with the hammer and how insistently anybody would fight for his death if public opinion started to sway the other way. All information we were deprived of, tragically.
Coulda, shoulda, woulda, buddy... but I don't buy this at all. If you were starting to unsuspect Morgrim, then please take back your vote!!! I don't see any hard evidence in your posts that you no longer suspected Morgrim. So, it's really a transparently mafia thing to do, to vote for someone and be publicly all for killing them... but later, oh you confess your doubts and other people are suspicious. Your post reads to me like you are a mafia who knows that the Morgrim vote made you suspicious, and you need to damage control immediately. It makes you much, much, much more suspicious.
Should I have taken back my vote? Yeah, I probably should have. The truth is we were all impatient for day two, and Morgrim WAS the most suspicious person. As a townie, he did not play well. (Sorry Morgrim, if you're reading, nothing personal.) So it's not as if I was completely convinced of his innocence and kept my vote on his head. I was just having doubts.
Now I know why Morgrim was the most suspicious character: Because our mafia are not suspicious characters. They are very good, very shrewd players who won't give themselves away. Thus, they are among our veteran players, not our newbies.
But especially when Morgrim voted for himself, I thought, well, there's no way he's mafia. Of course at that point I couldn't save him. But I immediately - before Axxle made the death official - went through the motions to see who could have been the mafia in light of Morgrim's innocence and, like several of you, it looks a lot like Robz.
I fully expected Robz to turn the accusation back on me when I fingered him, but frankly I expected a little more competence at that from such a skilled mafia person. I desperately need to damage control? No, I don't think I do. I don't think that any of my actions, to date, make me suspicious enough to warrant anything desperate. I did issue a pre-emptive defense because, as you said, all of us who voted for Morgrim are suspicious.
I was taken in by a lot of convincing talk about Morgrim, as I'm sure most of us were. We need to be looking at the originators of that talk, Robz and Voltgloss, and we need to be scrutinizing whether it was suspicious on its face, or whether their rhetoric made it suspicious. It's tricky, because they're the veterans and we're the newbies. We're inclined to trust their guidance and what is and isn't a scum tell. And unfortunately, if I'm right and they are the mafia, they've abused that trust while eliminating our remaining, trustworthy veteran guide. So now, we newbies are going to have to stop bandwagonning, trusting, and following and start thinking for ourselves to beat the mafia. I'm pretty confident that if you all read the log and consider your suspects independently, my name will be clear. Can you say the same thing Robz? Volt?
Sidebar: At this point, I don't suspect Galzria. Strong town read, despite his vote. If he's playing mafia, he's playing a more advanced game than I can figure out, but if someone else wants to make a case.
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I have other suspicions about who is mafia if you really do turn out to be town. But I think I'll sleep better if I wait until the next daylight to voice them.
Morgrim, I do not see how it benefited you to lynch yourself when you still had a chance of salvation. I can't think of any way that's not poor play. Axxle, idk if I still have the option now that the 5th vote has been cast, but Unvote
I would like to point out that the msfia have probably already voted for me. (assuming that I am not mafia myself)
It all depends on their play style. I can imagine a mafia choosing to sit back and enjoy the first round, especially if we all happened to stumble on a townie. I can also see a mafia rabble rousing. You're right though - Looking back, if you turn out to be innocent, I think we'll have gained some very valuable information about the Mafia. But that info will be much more reliable if we kill you than if we don't.
I can't help but notice the predicted role claim has not materialized, despite the growing majority behind this lynching.
Here's two quotes that support my assertions that I had misgivings/ was admitting the possibility that Morgrim could be innocent and already thinking about the repercussions. This is not, as Robz wants you to believe, a cover that's come out of nowhere, but a consistent part of my play.
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Given how much interesting stuff has come up to respond to already in Day 2, let's get right down to it.
I. Insomniac's accusation of me.
Of course there are going to be accusations coming my (and other Morgrim-voters' way); that's to be expected. What should be scrutinized is the manner in which those objections are made, and the facts used to back them up. Here's Insomniac's rationale for voting for me:
Voltgloss - Stats on no lynch first left out jailkeeper/doctor/cop involvement. Claimed he would unvote if someone else voted for
Morgrim, gave Robz888 permission to do so, did not unvote. Retracted the "unhammer" almost immediatly after offering it.
The offering makes him seem non mafia if you ignore the unhammer
1. On "no lynch." Yes, my initial analysis on "no lynch" left out jailkeeper/doctor/cop involvement, because my math skills were not up to the task of doing so. And I encouraged bozzball, as the resident mathematician, to provide just such analysis. Which he did (as to jailkeeper and doctor at least) and concluded it didn't make any difference. Plus, I don't really think coming out against "no lynch" should be a reason TO suspect someone. I stll stand by all of the analysis that I and others (especially confirmed townie Tables) gave as to why "no lynch" is bad. So this seems like a very strange reason to offer as to why I should be lynched. It feels like grasping at straws. Why would a townie feel the need to grasp at straws to lynch one of the more vocal town residents, especially with a full-blown vote right at the start of Day 2?
2. On "retracting the unhammer." As I alluded in my response to Insomniac, I gave extremely detailed reasons as to why I said I would no longer unvote if Morgrim's vote total got up to 4. I'll repost them here so people don't need to dig for them.
I woul like to point out that I voted for bozzball before Kuildeous, thus I was the first person to vote for him. Ergo, I voted for him not knowing that another person would vote for.him.
The italicized part is true. But the bolded part is false.
Morgrim voted for bozzball before Kuildeous, but after Galzria. (Galzria's vote was in post #138. Morgrim's was in post #143. This was well before Galzria switched his vote to Morgrim, in post #170.)
Ergo, Morgrim voted for bozzball knowing full well that another person would vote for bozzball - because another person (Galzria) had already done so.
The Mafia, by definition, must lie to keep themselves safe. Seems to me that's exactly what Morgrim is trying. Except... he just slipped up.
I still want to hear from Tables. But if someone votes Morgrim to 4 now, I'm not going to unvote to stop the hammer. This, to me, is the clincher.
Everything in my post above was completely accurate. Morgrim admitted he "blundered" several posts later (Reply #214). I stand by everything in my post above, along with all of my other posts detailing reasons why Morgrim was the most suspicious among us. He was the most suspicious. I don't really think there's any argument about that. Ultimately, he was behaving suspiciously because of poor town play instead of poor Mafia play. And that's unfortunate. But our job as Townies is to ferret out who is acting suspiciously, get them to explain themselves, and if their explanations are not convincing, deliver justice. Morgrim had every opportunity to explain himself and just dug himself deeper and deeper.
Those who suspect/accuse me for my voting for Morgrim: Where in my posts, from Reply #114 onward (my Vote post), did I ever advance an unfounded reason for suspecting Morgrim? This is a key question those who suspect me should answer.
Note that Insomniac completely ignored both my reasons for retracting the "unhammer" offer and my pointing out that he ignored them. So not only was he grasping at straws in his first reason for lynching me, he simply ignored the defense to his second reason.
Am I saying Insomniac is Mafia? I'm saying that's a distinct possibility. The only evidence we have of his Day 1 behavior is admitted bandwagoning on someone who turned out to be a townie. Would he have hammered if Morgrim didn't do it himself? Maybe. There actually wasn't a need to hammer at the time though, as Tables (confirmed townie) commented in his last substantive post:
I'm not comfortable with a 4th vote being on Morgrim. Not because I don't want him lynched (I'll get to that later), but because I think we should definitely use at least a few more days for discussion first.
Assuming only one Mafia member had voted for Morgrim up to that point (which I tend to think is probably right, otherwise their bandwagoning would be too transparent), this post from Tables would be read by the nonvoting Mafia as "there's no need for me to hammer yet because Tables might very well do the job for me."
To reiterate: I don't suspect Insomniac because he voted for me. I suspect him because his offered reasons for voting for me don't hold water.
II. jotheonah's recent posts
Several things in jotheonah's recent posts jump out at me as odd.
Robz and Voltgloss definitely initiated 90% of the suspicion against Morgrim, pushed the conversation back toward him when it started to wander elsewhere, and, as Insomniac pointed out, cast the penultimate votes.
Certainly, I and Robz focused the town on Morgrim. No denying that, and no reason to deny it. But I did not "cast the penultimate vote." I cast the FIRST vote.
Robz started the suspicion but delayed his vote - perhaps hoping we'd remember the latter but forget the former? Then Voltgloss told Robz not to vote yet and said he wouldn't vote, but after catching Morgrim in a lie, he voted. We all said we would wait for Tables' analysis. Tables had a history of defending Morgrim. Before the analysis we were all waiting for arrived, Robz, with Volt's support, put down his vote.
As noted before, I did not say I wouldn't vote. I had already voted, way back in Reply #114. The following events happened when Tables next chimed in with significant substance (Reply # 162):
- R#162: Tables explains his sleep schedule, defends against suspicion based on his comments on Robz, unvotes Jotheonah, suggests Morgrim is showing bad town play rather than bad mafia play, and says he is going to come back with further analysis.
- R#163: I voice interest in hearing Tables' analysis.
- R#164: Tables says he has done analysis up to page 4 and would come back after 10-11 hours with more.
- R#170: Galzria lays down the third vote on Morgrim based on reasons given in his reply #s 151 and 158.
- R#177: I say that I will likely unvote to prevent a premature hammer if the 4th vote comes before Tables' analysis. With the caveat that if I unvoted, and then Tables' analysis did not convince me my suspicions of Morgrim were misplaced, I would be reinstating my vote.
- R#190: Robz states he would vote for Morgrim but would wait for Tables as requested.
- R#206: Morgrim posts a blatant falsehood.
- R#210: I call Morgrim out on his falsehood. I reiterate my interest in Tables' analysis, and also state that, because of Morgrim's falsehood, I am now no longer planning to unvote if someone votes Morgrim to 4.
- R#213: Tables comments he hasn't had an opportunity to analyze yet.
- R#215: Robz comments, as he had before, that Tables "is probably the most likely candidate to be Morgrim's fellow mafia." He asks if anyone would be bothered if he puts the 4th vote on Morgrim.
- R#216: I say that a 4th vote on Morgrim would not bother me, for the reasons set forth in my R#210.
- R#217: Robz puts the 4th vote.
- R#218: Tables comments he is not comfortable with a 4th vote on Morgrim, "[n]ot because I don't want him lynched (I'll get to that later), but because I think we should definitely use at least a few more days for discussion first." He also adds that he "defended [Morgrim] earlier, but not much." He further adds that "things don't look great for [Morgrim]. My notes on him currently are pretty much a list of 'this is strange', 'That's interesting' and very few things that can really be said in his defence."
- R#219: Morgrim suicides.
jotheonah's summary leaves out (1) my having already voted well before this exchange took place, (2) my voicing interest in hearing Tables' analysis, (3) Galzria laying down the third vote before Tables had an opportunity to return with more analysis, (4) Robz's suspicion of Tables, (5) Tables leaning towards suspicion of Morgrim in his last (#218) post, and (6) the fact that no one had an opportunity to unvote in response to Tables' announced discomfort with the 4th vote, because of Morgrim's suicide.
I question why someone other than Mafia would choose to accuse someone by using a flawed version of the facts.
]Both Robz and VG are experienced players, and I think our mafia's play so far has been advanced enough to suggest a veteran.
This comment forgets an important theme throughout Day 1: Morgrim's incredibly suspicious behavior. Morgrim was conducting such, in Tables' words, "bad town play" that the Mafia barely needed to do anything for the town to rally against Morgrim. There was no need for advanced Mafia play in Round 1. I would like to hear why jotheonah thinks there has been advanced Mafia play, as he hasn't given a reason for that.
Was any reason I offered for suspecting Morgrim, from reply #114 onward, not unjustified? I don't think they were. I would very much like to hear someone explain why my reasons for voting Morgrim paint me as Mafia. Because I stand by those reasons. In both a substantive and (ironically) literal sense, Morgrim got himself lynched through his wildly strange behavior.
I guess I should pre-emptively defend my part in Morgrim's death. By the time he cast his vote, I was starting to believe he really was just a townie. But I wanted to see how it played out to get an idea of the power players. The reason I bit my tongue when I first started to suspect Robz and Voltgloss was that before Morgrim went and lynched himself, I was eager to see who would jump in with the hammer and how insistently anybody would fight for his death if public opinion started to sway the other way. All information we were deprived of, tragically.
Robz has already expressed his view on this. I haven't yet had an opportunity to go back over jotheonah's Day 1 posts to see whether or not this excuse holds water. But I will, and for good or ill, will report back with my thoughts. I encourage all others to do the same.
To reiterate/clarify: Looking at Table's past analyses, there was reason to believe he would debunk the Morgrim is mafia hypothesis. When Tables delayed in posting, Robz and Voltgloss both turned up the pressure on the lynch, despite agreements we would wait to hear out Tables. Then Tables dies, and the contents of that analysis (and all future analyses) with him. Very, very suspicious.
I did not turn up the pressure on the lynch due to Tables' delay. I was the one who dialed the pressure down. I was the one who first said "let's wait for Tables." Why did I turn the pressure back up? Because of Morgrim's lie, not Tables' delay. Furthermore, Tables' last post indicates he was leaning towards lynching Morgrim anyway.
Again, I am not suspicious of jotheonah because he suspects me. I am suspicious of jotheonah because he is twisting the facts in an effort to sway opinion towards suspecting me.
III. Other thoughts
Questions for the town to consider.
If Robz and I were both Mafia, do you think we would have jointly come down so hard on Morgrim as we did? Knowing that Morgrim would be revealed as a Townie after Day 1? Or is it more likely that at least one of us was a townie convinced of Morgrim's guilt? This is Kuildeous's point, and it is an important one.
Robz commented that I provided a lot of key early ammo to do the Morgrim vote. Which is absolutely correct. The question is whether I am a townie who firmly believed Morgrim was guilty [ed.: I am] or whether "a mafia trying to win [Robz's] trust." To help answer that question, I ask everyone to look back at the reasons given in my posts for voting for Morgrim. Did those reasons make sense? Did those reasons make more or less sense than the reasons given (to the extent they were given) by those others who voted for or suspected Morgrim? That is the question to be answered in figuring out which of the Morgrim-voters is most likely mafia. I've already said I think my reasons all hold up. If you disagree, let's hear why. I will be doing the same review of others' reasons given for voting for Morgrim.
Finally, I am very much looking forward to hearing from Galzria and bozzball. Bozzball's perspective I'm particularly keen to hear, as an (effectively) outsider to the whole Morgrim
discussion.
IV. Pre-post Edit
I typed up all the above before seeing jotheonah's most recent posts. So I'll address that now.
First: I'm not yet weighing in on Robz's suspicion and jotheonah's response. Because I need to review Day 1 - both Robz's and jotheonah's posts - before I feel comfortable giving an opinion on that. I suggest all others do the same.
Now I know why Morgrim was the most suspicious character: Because our mafia are not suspicious characters. They are very good, very shrewd players who won't give themselves away. Thus, they are among our veteran players, not our newbies.
This assertion perplexes me. Yes, of course it's possible the mafia here are good, shrewd players. But that doesn't explain why Morgrim was the most suspicious character. In fact, quite the opposite. Because Morgrim was so suspicious - based entirely on his own actions - it is entirely plausible that the Mafia are NOT experienced players, because they didn't need to be experienced to help Morgrim self-destruct. He did that himself.
I was taken in by a lot of convincing talk about Morgrim, as I'm sure most of us were. We need to be looking at the originators of that talk, Robz and Voltgloss, and we need to be scrutinizing whether it was suspicious on its face, or whether their rhetoric made it suspicious. It's tricky, because they're the veterans and we're the newbies. We're inclined to trust their guidance and what is and isn't a scum tell. And unfortunately, if I'm right and they are the mafia, they've abused that trust while eliminating our remaining, trustworthy veteran guide. So now, we newbies are going to have to stop bandwagonning, trusting, and following and start thinking for ourselves to beat the mafia. I'm pretty confident that if you all read the log and consider your suspects independently, my name will be clear. Can you say the same thing Robz? Volt?
All of this paragraph is correct. Absolutely everything Robz and I posted should be scrutinized. And I am confident that if you read the log, consider the suspects independently, and - most importantly - weigh whether the reasons offered for suspicion/voting hold water, the Town will conclude that I am a Townie who was convinced of Morgrim's guilt based on well-supported reasoning. Not a Mafioso who blatantly and publicly led the charge against someone I knew to be a Townie.
You'll note I haven't tried to defend Robz. That's because I haven't reviewed his Day 1 posts yet. I need to do that before deciding whether Robz is or isn't worthy of suspicion.
Sidebar: At this point, I don't suspect Galzria. Strong town read, despite his vote. If he's playing mafia, he's playing a more advanced game than I can figure out, but if someone else wants to make a case.
What evidence leads you to have a "strong town read" on Galzria? I'm not suggesting such a read is necessarily wrong. I am suggesting that, right now, offering suspicions (or non-suspicions) without evidence to back it up - is itself suspicious. Something leads you to think this way. Let's hear what it is.
Finally, I see jotheonah has cited two posts of his that he claims make his recent defense plausible. That's good. That's the type of evidence-backed approach (whether defending or attacking) that we need to see, from everybody. I will still be going over the rest of jotheonah's - and others' - posts to see what we can discern from Day 1.
Incidentally, I would be surprised if both Insomniac and jotheonah are Mafia. To come right out with a 1-2 punch on Day 2 like that against people they (if both Mafia) know to be townies? That would be extremely suspicious on Day 3 if they succeed. Just the same way that it'd be very odd for me and Robz - if we were both Mafia - to come down so hard on Morgrim on Day 1.
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To Voltgloss:
2. On "retracting the unhammer." As I alluded in my response to Insomniac, I gave extremely detailed reasons as to why I said I would no longer unvote if Morgrim's vote total got up to 4. I'll repost them here so people don't need to dig for them.
I did not ignore this, I think its suspicious that you retracted it to begin with, a true townie myself included would have wanted day 1 to last longer. That is the reason I did not vote when I had the opportunity to. I agree that its unfortunate that I wasn't around much in Day 1 because now that is going to make me a prime target of both people who I accused. I am in fact a newbie, and my suspicion is that a mafia wouldn't draw himself to attention as much as I did by not only calling out those whose activities seemed the most suspicious to me from reading the log but actually voting for someone.
To Robz:
Thats probably not unfounded but I DID have a chance to vote Morgrim and I said I wouldn't because I think we needed more time, as it stands I still think Day 1 should have lasted longer and would NOT have voted Morgrim had I been online around the time you had. I know that is only hear say because well I can't prove any of it but I can say I have a clean concious for not being one of the ones who lynched him.
Why Tables? Lets SERIOUSLY think about this question now Morgrim accused him of being mafia. This definitely would have made him the target of some town attention on day 2. Having learned that Morgrim was NOT mafia. So was that a rookie mistake or a complete misdirect on the mafia so that it would LOOK like a rookie mistake. Or maybe they just drew names out of a hat, either way I'm not convinced that the mafia chose tables at random or because he "looked the most innocent" (Robz) I think there was a motivator behind choosing Tables as he definetly would have been a target today.
Rules Question: When the rules cop gets to know the role of a townie do they get to kill AFTER they know that role or are both submitted at the same time?
I do not think I will be convinced that at least one of Voltgloss or Robz should be the target today but it's possible. Reading the rebuttals I'm a bit more concerned about Robz than Voltgloss. However To prevent a premature hammer for now Unvote
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Alright, a lot to get through. Let me start with the general, before moving into to specifics.
First, the 5th vote by Morgrim onto himself really sucks for us. Not only did we loose an opportunity to see who would cast that final vote, but (to me) most importantly, Morgrim's vote #5 came after ONLY TABLES had a chance to post. What does that matter? Well, it means that 4 people were in on the vote for Morgrim, but also that 4 people were out. I'll get into that more below.
As I mentioned in my very first post after we began day 2, I feel very strongly that amongst the Morgrim voters, there is at least one Mafia member. Here are, for reference and in order, each of the 4 voter's posts condemning him:
#1, Voltgloss: Post #114
Hmm.
There is one player who:
- immediately after jotheonah proposed "no lynch," jumped on that bandwagon;
- immediately after the "no lynch" proponent (jotheonah) was countered by two dissents (myself and Tables), jumped off the "no lynch" bandwagon;
- was the only person who responded to my question about "what additional info are you hoping to get," and did so by explicitly refusing to answer as it "could turn out to be a dangerous piece of info" - which sounds like telegraphing he has a power role, but why hint at having a role (without revealing it) unless it's a fakehint?;
- has repeatedly pushed people to vote, rather than just voice their suspicions - an approach that can lead to a hasty bandwagoned, scum-driven lynch; and
- responded to Robz888's reasonable question (to "defend his bandwagoning on the 'no lynch' thing") by not responding at all - other than to vote for Robz888; and
- responded to Robz888 pointing out his failure to respond to the question by, yet again, NOT responding - instead focusing on one minor aspect of Robz's post (that he quickly switched his vote in the space of a few minutes). Poking a hole in a minor piece of an argument does not automatically make the whole thing collapse - and trying to do that, while ignoring the more substantial gist of the argument, feels scummy to me.
My scumdar senses are strongly tingling in the direction of Morgrim. Quite strongly, in fact.
Vote: Morgrim
Morgrim, if you want to allay my suspicions, you should address each of the points I've listed above.
Starting with his first two points (along with points 5 and 6) about No-Lynching: I NEVER believed that to be an argument against Morgrim. It was a case made consistently by both Voltgloss and Robz888, and I absolutely thought it was a straw-man. They never jumped on Jotheonah over that issue, and Morgrim spelled out for them countless times why he made that vote (See posts #58, #69, and #117, amongst many more later).
Voltgloss's third point is where my argument to vote for Morgrim was derived from. I'll get into that more later.
Lastly here, Voltgloss's accusations that Morgrim is trying to get everyone to vote... is quite the pot calling the kettle black, no? Post #75:
Voltgloss:
As for Galzria's vote against me for "stirring everything up"... well, yes, I am stirring things up, quite deliberately. I'm doing so in order to bait the Mafia into making mistakes. If everything is "nice" and complacent, the Mafia don't have any reason to put themselves out there. And it's when they put themselves out there that they make mistakes.
Morgrim was innocent. Voltgloss, I'm not so sure. Still, I stand by my belief that "stirring things up" and causing confusion is only going to help the Mafia. We need to stop and think and make more reasoned accusations than those above by Voltgloss. Now more so than ever.
End opinion on Voltgloss: Very suspicious. If he is town, why get on Morgrim so early and keep pounding away? There was nothing to be gained by going at him relentlessly without really allowing for others to develop their own thoughts. If he is Mafia on the other hand, what better place to be? It means he's out of any "hammer" conversations, and if it seemed his accusations were going nowhere and nobody was climbing on board, then so what? He could keep an eye on any/all developments from a position of safety.
#2, Jotheonah: Post #167 (unofficial at post #149)
Things that jumped out in my morning-suggested readthrough:
Quote from: Morgrim7 on May 15, 2012, 10:19:15 am
I like jotheonah's point, but you, sir, could very well be mafia yourself... so could I...
If I were a beginning player in the mafia, that would be an odd thing to say. Even though it's obviously a joke, I would think a mafia player would be on guard against putting that idea further in the forefront of someone's brain.
Quote from: Tables on May 15, 2012, 02:58:08 pm
In fact, I'm beginning to get a bad vibe from Robz. The things he's chosen to respond to aren't exactly... the most relevant things he could have been picking out. Information, not analysis, type posts. Slightly worrying.
Tables, I'll be interested to here if this suspicion has cleared up for you.
Quote from: Kuildeous on May 16, 2012, 08:32:06 am
I did actually vote for Insomniac, but it didn't take. I suspect because I omitted the colon, and I’m sure the moderator is searching for that (we do provide a lot of text to sift through).
My vote was pretty much random, but I then reread the rules and saw that a tie means that there is no lynch. So, if a no-lynch vote is bad for the town, then it would reason that a tie is just as harmful. So, I'm avoiding the random vote and jumping on the bandwagon. I will vote: bozzball and may the gods have mercy on us if we are wrong.
Kuil, you keep chiming in to vote without doing analysis or explaining. There's no need for you to vote for anyone yet, a tie wouldn't be declared until everyone had voted and we're nowhere near that OR the deadline. Bandwagon voting like that doesn't really help the town and is slightly suspicious.
Also, if your point there was just to vote for someone who already has votes, why bozzball and not Morgrim?
To clear up any potential syntax problems, I'll reiterate. Vote: Morgrim7
Jotheonah doesn't really make any hard points against Morgrim in this post. But then, upon rereading the thread, I never really felt he did anywhere. He took after points made mostly by Voltgloss and Robz888. Even my arguments against Morgrim didn't seem to hold much water with him, as he listed a possible Mafia pair of Morgim and myself in post #149 (his unofficial vote for Morgrim post). It is VERY possible for Jotheonah to be Mafia. By this point in the conversation Voltgloss had already been sitting on a Morgrim vote for some time, and there is no doubt that it looked like the river was starting to flow in that direction. Getting on board the bandwagon at that point is a GREAT move for a Mafia, and a terrible one for a town member. Especially knowing and seeing that Robz and I both had different cases that we were considering for Morgrim, he had to KNOW that with his vote, Morgrim was likely to be at 4 very soon. Casting vote #2 is a whole lot "safer" than vote #4 or #5.
End opinion on Jotheonah: I'm leaning a little bit more towards Mafia here than I am with Voltgloss. Voltgloss... at least thought for his own and was fairly consistent. Jotheonah seemed much more opportunistic. His unvote of Morgrim right after Morgrim doomed himself (post #220, following Morgrim's at #219) is a GREAT play by Mafia. As a townie, if he wanted more time to think about it, he shouldn't have been in the pool of votes to begin with.
#3, Galzria: Post #170
Quote from: bozzball on May 16, 2012, 09:08:12 am
- Bozzball, you keep saying you don't see how a first day vote can be anything but random. That suggests to me that you don't find the arguments against Morgrim convincing. I would like to hear more detail on why that is so.
Because the arguments seem to be that he should be lynched because he voted for "No lynch", and that he suggested people should get on and vote because there's not much benefit for waiting - as the first day vote will essentially be random. Both of these are arguments that I have made.
Those arguments, while I find... Less than innocuous, aren't tells as far as I'm concerned. Of greater worry to me, were points made in posts #118, #128, and #140. It's those arguments that have me UNVOTE: BOZZBALL, and instead VOTE: MORGRIM7. I've fully laid out the rest of my reasons to that move in posts #151, and #158.
Me! Oh, I'm a very shady character. ;) Ok, jokes aside, YES you should all be evaluating me as much as I am evaluating you! Kuildeous is the first person to do so, and now Robz888 as well. As far as I'm concerned, this is only going to be good for the town. We all need to get everything out on the table. That said, I will wait until a follow up post to respond/answer any concerns that have been recently posted about me. This post is focused on the death of Morgrim and Tables.
PLEASE review posts #128 and #151.
Done? Ok, first off - I was wrong about Morgrim, but I always knew that I could be. Voting for him was, as I pointed out, a risk I was willing to take. I'm sorry Morgrim, I don't mean to hang you out like that, but I honestly did not think our odds of hitting a Mafia first round were going to be any higher than they were by voting for you. So that's the vote I made. I was comfortable with it, and going back would probably make the same vote a second time. Nothing that was said prior to your death brought me anywhere near the amount of suspicion that a few of your posts did.
Now, let's talk for a minute about my timing and previous actions:
I cast 3 votes altogether in the first round. Voltgloss, Bozzball, and Morgrim. While the vote for Voltgloss was unneeded, I was making a point. I am (as posted above and in many other places) very, very, VERY against random accusations and a "stir-the-pot" playstyle that leads to confusion. If you have a point to make, BACK IT UP. Early on, Voltgloss did not do this. He fully admitted it. Once his actions became more directed and he started posting ideas for their analytical value, I quickly backed off.
My second vote cast went to Bozzball, and I stand by my suspicions of him (fully laid out in post #151). As I noted, I would NOT put him in a position to be killed yet, as my suspicions are not "You are Mafia" suspicions but are "You are acting oddly" suspicions. Thus, when his vote tally went up to 3 by Kuildeous in post #165, I backed down as soon as I could (post #170). This line of thought was laid out by me in post #202.
To be clear: I switched when I did because I didn't want to see somebody I thought might be innocent get bandwagoned into a lynch, when I had good reasons for actually suspecting somebody else.
End opinion on Galzria: I'm not perfect, and I can understand where some of you might get a Mafia read on me from. All I can say is feel free to fire away with your quest... *ahem*. Perhaps "Fire away" isn't the best choice of words? ??? Anyway, I'll be happy to answer any questions or concerns you may have.
Note: things are flying fast and thick right now. Nearly every one of us is writing a book on our thoughts. I will do my BEST to get answers in where I can. If I miss something you said that you would like addressed, post it again with a directed question my way so it's easier to see.
Whew, almost done with us first four clowns.
#4, Robz888: Post #217
Okay, VOTE: MORGRIM 7
I am comfortable lynching him. If others are not, that's understandable. They may retract their votes if they like. We have plenty of time. But he's done more than enough to merit votes so far, in my view. So here we go.
Short and sweet. Nothing here of note, except perhaps his comment to others to feel free to retract their votes. While I don't have anything other than a feeling on this (read: nothing concrete, nothing I would build a case on) it is does feel like an odd way to start your endorsement telling others that they don't need to stay around. I don't know. It feels like he might be trying to get somebody (most likely me or Jotheonah) to jump ship, maybe so that his vote isn't so close to the final one?
Still, I think here we are going to have to look way back, because Robz888 seems to me to be the first person to cast suspicion on Morgrim, even while being the last to actually vote.
Robz888's first accusation comes in post #83. However he isn't really casting doubt on Morgrim here, just feeling out thoughts on the No Lynch vote that was going around at the time. He doesn't really get aggressive on Morgrim until post #91. My problem with Robz888, is that a couple of times (and this is the first case) he took things said by Morgrim out of context, and applied them to his own reasons. Morgrim wasn't "backing down" from Robz888 in post #90, he was unvoting ME. Continuing along, Robz888 next goes after Morgrim in post #107 and #110. By this point Robz seems to have already made up his mind towards Morgrim, or is at least heavily leaning that way. Note that this is ALL before Voltgloss even casts the first Morgrim vote.
Now, maybe Morgrim did himself no favors with a few of his replys. Still, I found quite a few of Robz888's arguments to be straw-man cases, and a few times he kept after Morgrim even after Morgrim (to my mind) had given good reasons for his actions/statements. Honestly, there were points where it felt like if Morgrim said "The sky is awfully black tonight", Robz888 would've responded "No, it's very dark blue, and the fact that you can't see that and that you have black thoughts on your mind incriminates you".
I'm not sure I like that Robz888 sat back for so long given his seeming early conviction that Morgrim was guilty. And casting the penultimate vote was definitely a knock against him. Still...
End opinion on Robz888: Ok, I think of all 4 of us, it's easiest to be suspicious of Robz888. That said, he's probably slightly below Voltgloss to me, maybe just about even and here's why: He never waivers. There was plenty of opportunity for him to go elsewhere (Bozzball, for example, who cast an early random vote Robz888's way). He gets on his horse and rides it all the way through. Was he wrong? Obviously. So were we all. Did I like his reasons? No, not most of the time. But did he show conviction? Yes. That says a lot to me. Not nearly enough to exonerate him, but enough to not make me want to come out of the gates voting for him as Mafia day 2.
To summarize the order of my feelings:
Jotheonah: Suspect #1
Voltgloss: Suspect #2
Robz888: Suspect #3
Me: Innocent, but for the sake of my point, Suspect #4
Now that I've gotten that all cleared out of the way, onto the meat of my post. :-\
4 voters. 4 chances for the Mafia to get their names out there. Here's my thought though. Votes #2 and #3 were separated by 2 posts (#167-#170). Votes #4 and #5 were separated by 1 (#217-219). All came within 52 posts of each other. It would've been tough for the Mafia to mobilize that quickly, and it would've been a HUGE mistake for them to push it that hard that close together. Add in the fact that they would've been relying on a townie to jump on board for #5, and I just can't bring myself to see two Mafiosi amongst them. The only way I reckon that there are 2 amongst the primary 4, is if Voltgloss is one. Even if that IS the case though, I can't see a good reason for Mafia #2 to get on board during that time frame, when it already seemed the river was flowing Morgrim's way. He would've waited it out to see if his vote was even needed. This leads me to hazard a guess (and don't hold me to this, it's just where I stand right now) that there is 1 Mafia in, and 1 Mafia out. What does this mean? Analysis for those not involved! Yay! (And you thought you were just about done with my ramblings! HA!)
Let me redirect back to the fact that votes #4 and #5 were separated BY JUST A SINGLE POST. This means that with the exception of Tables, nobody got the chance to hammer away. It means nobody got the chance to respond in any fashion to a "one-vote-from-lynch" scenario. With 2 people dead, and 4 already discussed above, I'm left looking for Mafiosi amongst 3 others:
First, Insomniac. I start here because I think that he said the least of our remaining 3 candidates, but he did show suspicion for Morgrim in post #115. This is EARLY. Right around the Voltgloss/Robz early. Still, despite it being a FINE Mafia move to excuse himself with a "wedding" (pics or it didn't happen! ;) ) I'm inclined to believe his absence was for the stated reason. Moreover, I would actually be MUCH more suspicious of him if he had actually CAST his vote for Morgrim at that time. Still, possible Mafia? Absolutely.
Second, Kuildeous. His early stance of not wanting to say much because he believed the first round was going to be random (#131, #144, #177) strikes me as dangerous, especially as he came back later with actual directed thoughts (#200). Incidentally, post #200 is really rather confusing, and exactly the type of thing I've been preaching against since the very beginning. The fact that he admits to bandwagoning Bozzball up to 3 "to try and draw out Mafia votes" is also disconcerting to me. I was first to cast a vote on Bozzball, and I've given my reasons for that. I've also given my reasons why I got OFF his bandwagon as soon as Kuildeous made the move to put him at 3 though, and the fact that Kuildeou's reasons for getting on are exactly my reasons for getting off leave me hugely suspicious.
Lastly, Bozzball. A bit of a cross between Kuildeous and Insomniac, and so lands right between them in my eyes in terms of possible guilt. His play has been rather erratic and unrefined, and that's when he's been around! He's also professed to not seeing how the first round could be anything but random, but then again, he's a Mathematician and sees everything through a very filtered lens. At least his play has seemed to be "consistently erratic" if there is such a thing? Could he be Mafia? Again, absolutely. He's given me nothing to indicate a reason to think he's a townie.
Alright! Almost done! Here's where I stand on the whole:
Top of the list from part 1:
Jotheonah: Suspect #1
Voltgloss: Suspect #2
Robz888: Suspect #3
Me: Innocent, but for the sake of my point, Suspect #4
Top of the list from part 2:
Kuildeous: Suspect #1
Bozzball: Suspect #2
Insomniac: Suspect #3
If there is a pairing in the first half, I would have to think it's Voltgloss-Robz888. But as stated before, I don't think that's likely. My overall feelings towards a pair are Jotheonah-Kuildeous but I'm open to talk and other thoughts. I will NOT be casting unnecessary votes this round, and it is way to easy for the Mafia to pile on to gain a 3-2 advantage on day 3.
Again, as a final note: I will address other thoughts from events following the start of day 2 in a follow up post. I will also try to answer any questions then. For now, I have to go get myself a coffee and some breakfast.
RIP: Morgrim, Tables
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Maybe my analysis is too simplistic. I agree with the comments that say Voltgloss and Robz together were being awfully obvious if they were mafia.
However, the timing of RObz's offensive against Morgrim still seems suspicious. Imagine he's the mafia. He's resolved to wait and see who the first bandwagon emerges against and then jump onto it late, to allay suspicion. Hence his suspiciously less-agressive-than-in-game-1 behavior.
But then, his name starts flying around a lot. He starts to worry that if he lets things take their course, they'll land on him. So he accuses Morgrim. Not the first accusation anyone's made, but the first serious one.
But one person making an accusation won't necessarily turn the tide of group think. There were several such assertions that happened day one and were never followed up on. SO my thought was that the first person to jump to his aide was more likely his co-mafia. But now I think that would be too obvious and too much of a liability on Day 2 (now).
Given VOltgloss's correction to the facts of the timing of his vote (a mistake on my part). I guess my suspicions are stirring strongly toward Robz as mafia and Volt as town. But I'm not entirely convinced. Perhaps Volt thought that the rest of his very vocal, seemingly pro-town play on day one would be enough to protect him from Day 2 suspicions. It's risky mafia play, but it's not stupid mafia play.
Volt is right, Morgrim was doing himself in. But in retrospect, certain voices were amplifying the suspiciousness of his actions. I especially want to know why Morgrim's "lie" and my, if I might make a suggestion, very similar "twisting of the facts" are quite as damning as Voltgloss wants them to be. Volts has shown himself good at zeroing in on sloppy analysis and reframing it as manipulative lying. So far that instinct has only hurt us.
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To tackle some other things:
Why do I think Galzria is town? I guess I don't really know what a "town tell" is. I am just going on the absence of mafia tells. Galzria has not done anything to raise my suspicions. But I haven't read as closely as I'd like to - I have limited time to devote to this game, I skim through and post about what jumps out at me as obvious. That explains why my analysis of Volt and RObz actions was not as detailed as Volt's rebuttal. I'm sorry if my being less specific read as me being biased. I'm not attached to lynching Volt or Robz as people. I just want to lynch the mafia, and I strongly suspect at least one of them is.
Galzria's foregrounding of me is deeply worrying, though it doesn't make me doubt my assertion that he's town. It's worrying because I have so much faith in him. I don't want to see the town waste it's vote on me today, because then you will have killed a townie and sealed your fate.
So Galzria (and everyone else), what questions can I answer or actions can I explain to make you all believe I'm not the mafia? I'm happy to answer them.
This game is much more complicated than I gave it credit for. When I started playing I didn't stop before every action and ask myself "does this look scummy?" I assumed the fact that I am innocent would automatically make me look innocent. I felt sure that Galzria would look through the logs and see what I saw. But he saw a lot of different things from what I saw, including, apparently, a lot of suspicious behavior from me.
But his suspicions seem mainly rooted in the fact that I've played with a light touch, being hesitant to drive the action and more willing to advance what already seems to be the will of the town. That looks scummy, I'll admit. Here's what it really is: I'm an enthusiastic newbie. I really want to be an active, involved town member, but I don't yet know all the ways to do that and not do that and how not to look like Mafia. THat's how I've played. When I've done something wrong and been called out, like the no-lynch vote, I've resolved to act differently in the future.
This round, I'm learning from last round by delaying my vote and by going more on the offensive.
His "one in, one out" suggestion makes a lot of sense to me. My top suspect is Kuieldeaous. (I will never get those vowels right). He's been, as I said, willfully unhelpful, but has thrown some votes around casually in between. Bozzball second, for basically the same reasons.
As for whether it's Robz or Volt, I was leaning toward Robz but the more I think about it the more I suspect Volt. I'll have to take a really close look to figure out which of them is mafia, but I'm so very sure one of them is. It probably won't be until late tonight or tomorrow that I'll have the time to sit down and do that analysis and present an informed opinion to you all. Don't take my absence as suspicious behavior.
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Wow. I don't envy the position of those who have yet to say much coming in... There may be more to look over since the start of Day 2 than all of Day 1 combined! ???
With that said, I'll do my best to keep this brief for now. From what I can tell, two main points have been addressed to me:
Kuildeous:
Though Robz is at the top of my list, I am also leaning heavily toward Galzria. He originally voted for bozzball but switched to Mogrim. I believe he was the third vote to doom Mogrim. It's a comfortable position for Mafia: He didn't jump in there early, and he didn't wait too late to place the bet.
Robz888:
Is it Galzria? Well, Galzria played the most erratic game of these people. He jumped around a bit. He suspected Morgrim, then he liked Morgrim, then he voted Bozzball, then he switched to Morgrim. His vote for Morgrim was #3, and was probably the most transparently bandwagon-y. But then again, it was so bandwagon-y, I actually have a hard time believing it was a mafia move. Surely they would be more cautious than that? But maybe not.
Both of these seem to be in the same vein, so I'll answer them together if you gentlemen don't mind?
From post #202:
Not voting is not suspicious at this stage.
I disagree. I would think that a true member of the Mafia would be interested in withholding his vote until he can condemn an innocent person. This does not mean that I hold Robz and Insomniac in suspicion based on their lack of votes. I just don't think there's any behavior in here that completely allays suspicion.
My original plan for changing my vote to bozzball was to push the vote up to 3 to see if the Mafia players would jump on and push the vote to 5. Unfortunately, the vote is at 2, as Galzria changed his vote shortly after
So now Morgim has 3 votes. I've yet to see 2 players jump in and push it to5. I'm making a pretty big assumption that the Mafia players would be interested in placing their 2 votes on someone to push the number to 5. I say that, but it's quite possible that the Mafia players already suspected that delaying votes would be suspicious. They may even realize that concentrating their votes on one person would be suspicious also.
So, if I go with the idea that Mafia players would wait to place a vote, then the fact that Mogrim doesn't have a majority yet casts him in the role of Mafia. Paradoxically, Mogrim voted for bozzball early, so if I vote for Mogrim on that assumption, then I have to recognize that my assumption is faulty, since Mogrim contradicted it.
Although, another thought comes to mind. Since you can change your vote at any time, it's actually unlikely that the Mafia will wait to vote for someone. They can accomplish the same thing by changing their vote to tip someone over to majority vote.
There's a reason I don't like to reveal my thought process. To be fair, whoever is in the Mafia probably already thought of these things already. I read a little in the first game and saw the claim that a talking town is more likely to be efficient in lynching. I still kind of question that, but I guess I'll leave my experiments at home and speak more freely. I still don't like saying what I think where the Mafia players can hear. Just because they are more logical gamers doesn't mean they'll think of everything.
After all that, I'm still not convinced in a particular direction.
So if you really believe we have no more information than we did when we started, well, you're doing it wrong.
I don't dispute that there is more information I question the amount of useful information. In fact, I'd say that a lot of these posts are actually harmful to the town, which should be expected when you have two people working in tandem to undermine us.
Hell, in this post, I simultaneously condemned and exonerated Mogrim. Well, not really exonerate. I'll still vote for him if there's a compelling reason. People are eagerly awaiting Tables's analysis. I'll join in on that and see what he has to say.
To be fair, following your line of thought was exactly why I changed to Morgrim from Bozzball at that time. While I was (and am still) suspicious of Bozzball, I am much more so of Morgrim. I didn't think it was fair to set Bozzball up to fall, and my initial vote was the first cast in that direction. I'm still willing to go back if he does anything more incriminating, but I'm not ready to put him in a position to be lynched quite yet.
... <snip>
This was back when there were only 3 votes on Morgrim. Now, you may see that as erratic, but as I point out in my earlier post today (and my full analysis of where I stand), it was anything but. I find wanting somebody with almost no case against them at 3 votes (Kuildeous) to be much more worrisome. You moved in to set the hammer up to fall. I moved out so it couldn't. Do I hold suspicions of Bozzball? Yes. Were my suspicions of Morgrim much higher? Absolutely.
In more direct response to Kuildeous:
Furthermore, with my belief that Morgrim was guilty at the time (and I don't think anyone would deny things looked that way), his 2nd vote of Bozzball appeared like an attempt to move the conversation away from him. Now, one of two things is true: You are Mafia, or you are not. For the case that you are NOT, it seemed like mighty bad play to cast a 3rd vote alongside him. In doing, you open a door for the Mafia to change targets if Tables comes out with a strong case why Morgrim should be innocent. And "setting the hammer up to fall" just seems to me to be bad all the way around.
In the case that you ARE Mafia (which yes, I am having feelings about), it makes PERFECT sense. You would know that both Morgrim and I are not. That's 2 town votes. Your voting for #3 there keeps you out of the Morgrim scuffle if things go down there, keeping you appearing innocent. And if Morgrim gets a clear from Tables, you've set things up to fall somewhere else without having to scramble.
Hmm. I'll have to consider some more, but a response from you right now as to how that went down would be greatly appreciated.
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Taking my last thought from above a step further, and not to harp on without waiting for a response, but this gets to the heart of my point:
... <snip>
Hell, in this post, I simultaneously condemned and exonerated Mogrim. Well, not really exonerate. I'll still vote for him if there's a compelling reason. People are eagerly awaiting Tables's analysis. I'll join in on that and see what he has to say.
This is from the end of the post I quoted above (#200 for full reference).
What a way to go, eh? Talk about hedging your bets. You talk about both condemning Morgrim, but also protecting yourself in case he goes down without your help. You point out your willingness to change to him if your vote is needed, but you also warn to watch out for Table's analysis, which could in effect, cause the Morgrim train to become derailed. And through all of this, you defend switching to Bozzball in an attempt to get the hammer to fall. Whew.
Really looking forward to your response.
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but you also warn to watch out for Table's analysis
I wasn't warning to hold off on Tables's analysis. I was just offering to wait since others thought it'd be useful.
It was my belief that the first vote would be more or less random. Mogrim had a 1/9 chance of getting lynched. He inadvertently shifted the odds in his favor. If it wasn't for that, then he'd have the same odds as the rest of us.
I was willing to listen to Tables, but I doubt it would have swayed me on the first day. Everyone was equally suspicious, and I recognized that someone *had* to be lynched. I respect Tables's knowledge and reasonings, but I don't think he could have saved Mogrim.
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Here's two quotes that support my assertions that I had misgivings/ was admitting the possibility that Morgrim could be innocent and already thinking about the repercussions.
I do not hold that unvoting for Mogrim after he signed his death warrant is a sign of being innocent. The rules were posted that once a majority is achieved, all subsequent votes and unvotes will be ignored. Since Mogrim is a confirmed townie who obviously wouldn’t have wanted to get lynched, I believe 100% that he did not catch that rule. I do not know if jotheonah honestly made the same mistake or if he’s trying to cover up his vote by playing the sympathy card. Not willing to vote against jotheonah right yet, but in my book, he’s not out of the clear.
I say that I will likely unvote to prevent a premature hammer if the 4th vote comes before Tables' analysis. With the caveat that if I unvoted, and then Tables' analysis did not convince me my suspicions of Morgrim were misplaced, I would be reinstating my vote.
This has been gnawing at me lately, and now I see why. On the surface, it sounds like he is concerned about not rushing the vote, but his actions do not support his words. If V was truly worried about prematurely executing Mogrim, then why didn’t he unvote right away? It seems that the best way to prevent a premature lynching is to remove your own vote rather than rely on the others to not cast their own votes. That actually makes Voltgloss my top suspect now. Maybe it was sloppy play, and I would be more inclined to overlook it if a newbie did it. I would not expect a veteran to do it.
And a convenient way to get out of the stipulation that V needs to unvote to prevent 4 votes is to simply find a reason to not be interested in protecting Morgrim—mainly catching him in a lie, which we all now know is simply Morgrim misinterpreting the vote order (he remembered that he voted for bozzball before me but did not remember that he wasn’t the first vote of all of us).
He's been, as I said, willfully unhelpful, but has thrown some votes around casually in between.
Oh, it’s not a willful unhelpfulness, jotheonah. It’s simply recognizing that without much information, the first day is pretty much a random lynch. In person, I’m sure it’s easy to catch someone in a lie. In a forum, not so much. People have the time to frame their lies so they are not as easy to dissect. None of the posts in the first day helped me choose my suspect, and going beyond that wasn’t going to provide me with any more information. Though, I do have to confess that first-day ramblings are shown in a whole different light once blood is drawn.
Sorry that I wasn’t that helpful in the first day, but I had no reliable data to work with.
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Rules question: What is the deadline for Day 2? I presume that it's the same time frame as Day 1 (2 weeks), so that would make the deadline June 1?
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Here's two quotes that support my assertions that I had misgivings/ was admitting the possibility that Morgrim could be innocent and already thinking about the repercussions.
I do not hold that unvoting for Mogrim after he signed his death warrant is a sign of being innocent. The rules were posted that once a majority is achieved, all subsequent votes and unvotes will be ignored. Since Mogrim is a confirmed townie who obviously wouldn’t have wanted to get lynched, I believe 100% that he did not catch that rule. I do not know if jotheonah honestly made the same mistake or if he’s trying to cover up his vote by playing the sympathy card. Not willing to vote against jotheonah right yet, but in my book, he’s not out of the clear.
The unvote was kind of a just in case. I got there, saw Morgrim's stupid mistake and thought "there's a tiny chance I can prevent this with a rules loophole if I unvote now and w'll get to continue discussing and get more information." So I gave it a try.
Honestly, if this was a mafia attempt to elicit sympathy it would be the most pathetic, transparent mafia move I've ever seen. It was a last ditch attempt on the part of the town to delay what appeared to be a very hasty lynching. If Morgrim had turned out to be mafia I would have defended it exactly the same way - trying to get us the delay that almost everyone SAID they wanted.
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Since there hasn't been any conversation in a while and I'm aware there are some suspicions of me due to my lack of conversation and voting on day 1 (and there should be we should suspect everyone right now) I'm willing to answer any questions you may have of me and my opinion on happenings. I should obviously be far more available for the coming days as opposed to the first few
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Vote Count 2-1
Not Voting (7) - Insomniac, Voltgloss, jotheonah, Galzria, Robz888, bozzball, Kuildeous
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline: Friday, June 1, 2012 6pm PDT
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Galzria looks out his window into the empty, desolate town. Things sure have gone quiet lately. Sad, he thinks. This used to be such a lively place to live. Now nobody trusts anybody, and everyone is afraid even to go down to the Market. He sighs to himself. Maybe it's time to call together a town meeting so we can get all the accusations in one place. And who knows? Maybe the Mafia will let something skip...
I will put together a post later tonight that tries to bring everyone's suspicions into a single post, so we can get a feel for where the town as a whole is leaning, and discuss how we would feel off those were votes instead of suspicions.
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Last word of flavor text was supposed to be "slip". Silly auto correct.
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I wanted to give the other players a chance to catch up. Though, it looks like bozzball is the only person who hasn't had a chance to chime in yet. But I get the feeling that this weekend was pretty busy for lots of people. I'll speak up again this week.
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Oh, I know. I'm not going to make an analytical post. There's enough of those at the moment. I'm just going to combine the conclusions into an information post. Townie X suspects A, B, and C. He is suspected by Y and Z sort of thing. Those who want to comment more can read the full posts themselves. I just think a short condensed list will give us a good feel for where we're at as a whole.
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As for being busy, I hear ya. I've been in, out, and everywhere. Had a game today, practice on Friday, game on Tuesday... And I had family crash riding their bikes on Saturday at about 40 mph. Not fun. Sooo, ya. Having a lull here has been kinda nice. Still, with two days gone and 8 left, I want to keep us moving forward.
Also, as you point out, nothing from bozzball at all. Not even a "I'll be busy and away". Giving him the benefit of the doubt here, and I'll just assume he's caught up. Still Axxle, if you wouldn't mind pinging him tomorrow if we haven't heard?
Here, I'll add syntax to make sure you see this:
Vote: Axxle (That's the easiest way I can think to ping you in game).
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I would now like to call to order this town gathering. Our purpose here tonight is not to condemn anybody but instead to get a feeling for the general state of things. Obviously amongst our midst sit two very well disguised Mafiosi, so take a good long look at the person on either side of you. I've asked you all to fill out forms with your thoughts, and I feel we've all stepped up admirably. I've provided each of you a copy to review on pages 10 and 11. So without wasting any more time, allow me bring it all together. Please, if there is a mistake, hold your announcement until the end, and then feel free to voice it. Alright then, let's begin.
These will attempt to be organized by level of suspicion (highest first):
Insomniac suspects: Voltgloss, Robz888
Jotheonah suspects: Voltgloss, Robz888
Kuildeous suspects: Robz, Galzria, Voltgloss
Voltgloss suspects: Insomniac? Jotheonah? You've switched to a more defensive sit-and-wait strategy. Not totally sure where you stand.
Robz888 suspects: Jotheonah, Insomniac, Voltgloss
Galzria suspects: Kuildeous, Jotheonah, Voltgloss, Bozzball
Bozzball suspects: n/a
I will drop all but the first three suspects for each person:
Voltgloss: Suspected by 4 people
Robz888: Suspected by 3 people
Jotheonah: Suspected by 3 people
Galzria: Suspected by 2 people
Insomniac: Suspected by 2 people
Kuildeous: Suspected by 1 person
Bozzball: Suspected by 0 people.
Well gentleman, there you have it. Feel free to mention corrections and I encourage everyone to consider if those were actual votes. How would you feel if that's how it ended today?
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As for being busy, I hear ya. I've been in, out, and everywhere. Had a game today, practice on Friday, game on Tuesday... And I had family crash riding their bikes on Saturday at about 40 mph. Not fun. Sooo, ya. Having a lull here has been kinda nice. Still, with two days gone and 8 left, I want to keep us moving forward.
Also, as you point out, nothing from bozzball at all. Not even a "I'll be busy and away". Giving him the benefit of the doubt here, and I'll just assume he's caught up. Still Axxle, if you wouldn't mind pinging him tomorrow if we haven't heard?
Here, I'll add syntax to make sure you see this:
Vote: Axxle (That's the easiest way I can think to ping you in game).
I now read at the minimum all bolded text, so you can reach me through that. I'll message bozball as per Misc rule #5 and #7. If he doesn't respond in a reasonable manner he will be replaced
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Let me just quickly say that this has been the most astonishingly busy weekend for me in months. I haven't played a single Isotropic game since Thursday, and I don't think I have ever not played Dominion two days in a row since, well, ever.
I will certainly post more starting Monday afternoon.
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I'm back. Wasn't really expecting anything to happen over the weekend. Hi guys!
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I think I should probably sit out of future mafia games. Feeling a bit guilty really, but I don't have a good idea of whose behaviour is more suspect. Seems you all have a better understanding of the human psyche than I do...
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I think I should probably sit out of future mafia games. Feeling a bit guilty really, but I don't have a good idea of whose behaviour is more suspect. Seems you all have a better understanding of the human psyche than I do...
I'm not bothered by some people being less active than others, or less active at certain times... but don't doubt yourself! Unless you are the mafia. Then you should be filled with self-doubt, and confess your scummy crimes to us.
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Voltgloss suspects: Insomniac? Jotheonah? You've switched to a more defensive sit-and-wait strategy. Not totally sure where you stand.
Had an extremely busy weekend, as it seems most everyone else did. Was also hoping to hear from all players (i.e., bozzball as well) before posting more of substance. Really not sure how to proceed with bozzball's most recent post.
I will say this, in response to jotheonah's asking why I thought catching Morgrim in a lie was so damning:
My RL profession is attorney*. Catching people in lies is part of what I do for a living. In a legal case, if you can catch the other side's witness in a lie or a contradiction, their credibility takes a huge hit. If they're lying about X, aren't they more likely to be lying about everything else they're saying? The answer to that question is a resounding "yes." It's one of the most basic and simultaneously most difficult tasks to accomplish during the pendency of a legal case.
So, yes, I found Morgrim's lie damning. That is the reason why I "retracted my unvote": because he did the one thing that, in my eyes, could cement his status as someone posting falsehoods: posting a falsehood.
See also this post of Kuildeous's:
Oh, it’s not a willful unhelpfulness, jotheonah. It’s simply recognizing that without much information, the first day is pretty much a random lynch. In person, I’m sure it’s easy to catch someone in a lie. In a forum, not so much. People have the time to frame their lies so they are not as easy to dissect. None of the posts in the first day helped me choose my suspect, and going beyond that wasn’t going to provide me with any more information. Though, I do have to confess that first-day ramblings are shown in a whole different light once blood is drawn.
The bolded part is absolutely true. When I have played Mafia before, it has always been face-to-face. (I have never played forum-based Mafia before.) Catch someone in a lie, you've almost always got yourself Mafia. Or, at the very least, a lot higher than a 2/9 random chance of getting Mafia. In a forum - it's a lot harder to catch someone in a lie. But you can do it! And if it's that much harder in a forum to tease out someone's lies, isn't it that much more damning to actually catch someone in one?
Which is why I find it rather surprising that I'm being suspected primarily for retracting my unvote offer. To which I say two things:
1. I was the one who started the "let's wait for Tables" approach. The only reason I retracted my "unvote" offer was because Morgrim did the absolute single most incriminating thing he could possibly do: lie. To my mind, if you lie and get caught, you are vastly more likely to be Mafia. Morgrim lied and got caught. Why wouldn't I put my money where my mouth is by increasing the pressure on him?
2. And if I were Mafia and playing a very advanced game, why would I retract anyway? Wouldn't it be safer to simply sit and wait for Tables and THEN leave my vote unchanged? It's not like there was any ebb in the suspicion of Morgrim at the time I "retracted my unvote offer." He still had a pile of votes on him. What strategic advantage, from a Mafia point of view, would there be to wait? (Knowing that, if I were Mafia (which I am not), I'd be weathering suspicion on Day 2 for leading the charge in lynching someone who wound up to be a townie)
Let me also add this, from one of the few other people we know to be a confirmed townie on this board (from Mafia I):
No one has ever stated a case for lynching me other than the fact that I targeted TINAS early on, and that I have not wavered from that position. This is the behavior of a townie. Not a mafioso. Real mafia hedge. They deceive. They waver back and forth. They act suspiciously.
This is what I did, as soon as I felt a particular player (Morgrim) had done enough to warrant SERIOUS suspicion. (Not "voice doubts about someone to get them to react" suspicion. Which I freely admit I did towards several others. As did the rest of you. That's the game!) But as soon as I seriously targeted Morgrim (via vote), I never wavered from that.
Was my suspicion of Morgrim wrong? Ultimately, yes. He was playing such a poor town game it looked like a Mafia game. That's unfortunate. But given his and everyone else's actions, he was the most likely person to be mafia in Day 1. Can anyone dispute this? (I don't think anyone is.) Then, why is single-minded pursuit of the most suspicious person on Day 1 itself a cause for suspicion?
Finally, as to who I suspect - there is one person who:
1. I have caught in a lie on Day 2;
2. when called on it, brushed it off as a "mistake," and countered by arguing that my interest in dissecting lies is itself suspicious; and
3. in the first of the two posts offered in R#258 as evidence in his defense (as examples of him having significant misgivings about Morgrim's guilt), presented a post made after Morgrim had already hanged himself. So by the time of that post, if jotheonah is Mafia, he knew the lynch was successful by then and had every reason to IMMEDIATELY start distancing himself from the lynch he helped create. No one but Mafia would have a reason to do this before Morgrim's alignment was revealed. A townie who believed Morgrim's guilt would stand by the courage of his convictions. A Mafioso helping engineer the lynch of a hidden innocent would back away from the results as quickly as he could.
So that's why my suspicions, right now, lie squarely on jotheonah. Not Insomniac or Kuildeous, despite their suspecting me strongly now, because their recent behavior strikes me as significantly less suspicious than jotheonah's.
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Whoops, forgot to include the footnote referenced by the * after giving my RL occupation. So here it is.
*I did not reveal my occupation round 1 for two reasons:
(1) I did not want to be seen as presenting my RL occupation as a reason why my arguments should be granted additional weight. However, now that my reasoning has been called into question, I think it's important to reference my occupation as a reason why I think the way I do.
(2) theory's occupation did him no favors in round 1 of his game. :)
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Was my suspicion of Morgrim wrong? Ultimately, yes. He was playing such a poor town game it looked like a Mafia game. That's unfortunate. But given his and everyone else's actions, he was the most likely person to be mafia in Day 1. Can anyone dispute this? (I don't think anyone is.) Then, why is single-minded pursuit of the most suspicious person on Day 1 itself a cause for suspicion?
Finally, as to who I suspect - there is one person who:
1. I have caught in a lie on Day 2;
Let's look more closely at my alleged lie.
jotheonah's summary leaves out (1) my having already voted well before this exchange took place, (2) my voicing interest in hearing Tables' analysis, (3) Galzria laying down the third vote before Tables had an opportunity to return with more analysis, (4) Robz's suspicion of Tables, (5) Tables leaning towards suspicion of Morgrim in his last (#218) post, and (6) the fact that no one had an opportunity to unvote in response to Tables' announced discomfort with the 4th vote, because of Morgrim's suicide.
I question why someone other than Mafia would choose to accuse someone by using a flawed version of the facts.
(1) Not true. The quote you referenced as evidence was a summary paragraph where I was discussing both your and Robz' behavior collectively. The "penultimate vote" was a reference to Robz.
(2) Yes, I left out some things that weren't relevant to the case I was building. Isn't that how one makes a case, Mr. Attorney?
(3) The third vote is considerably less suspicious to me than the fourth - or for that matter the first. In a concerted mafia effort, I fully expect one to lead the charge and one to egg it on if it starts to slog down. Though, as I've said, I now believe, with Galzria, that the second mafioso did not vote.
(4) This doesn't contradict the story I was laying out. It can easily be explained by Robz trying to set himself up with an excuse for the suspicious behavior of not waiting for Tables' analysis after he turned up dead.
(5) All I said was "there was reason to believe Tables' post would exonerate Morgrim." And there were reasons, outside of post #218. The fact that he was warning us about a premature lynching, discussed being uncomfortable with how fast things are moving, and had shown himself to be a very independent, town-minded player. Threat #1 for the mafia, as we found out.
(6) Far from omitting that, I made a point of bemoaning it in my post.
Where is my lie, Volts? is it this?
Then Voltgloss told Robz not to vote yet and said he wouldn't vote, but after catching Morgrim in a lie, he voted.
Voltgloss has pointed out this statement was inaccurate - He had already voted. After catching Morgrim in a lie, he re-affirmed his vote and encouraged others to vote. This does not substantively alter the case against him, and if you look at the post in question, his wording and use of bold, thinking it was a vote was an easy mistake to make. And that is exactly what it was.
2. when called on it, brushed it off as a "mistake," and countered by arguing that my interest in dissecting lies is itself suspicious; and
Let's look at what I actually said.
Volt is right, Morgrim was doing himself in. But in retrospect, certain voices were amplifying the suspiciousness of his actions. I especially want to know why Morgrim's "lie" and my, if I might make a suggestion, very similar "twisting of the facts" are quite as damning as Voltgloss wants them to be. Volts has shown himself good at zeroing in on sloppy analysis and reframing it as manipulative lying. So far that instinct has only hurt us.
Did I say his behavior in pointing out lies was suspicious? No, I did not. (Look at that, I've caught you in a lie!) What I did say, and stand by, is that he has used it as a source of conviction once, and that ended with us lynching a townie. This instance will end the same way. His record here speaks for itself.
3. in the first of the two posts offered in R#258 as evidence in his defense (as examples of him having significant misgivings about Morgrim's guilt), presented a post made after Morgrim had already hanged himself. So by the time of that post, if jotheonah is Mafia, he knew the lynch was successful by then and had every reason to IMMEDIATELY start distancing himself from the lynch he helped create. No one but Mafia would have a reason to do this before Morgrim's alignment was revealed. A townie who believed Morgrim's guilt would stand by the courage of his convictions. A Mafioso helping engineer the lynch of a hidden innocent would back away from the results as quickly as he could.
So that's why my suspicions, right now, lie squarely on jotheonah. Not Insomniac or Kuildeous, despite their suspecting me strongly now, because their recent behavior strikes me as significantly less suspicious than jotheonah's.
I've addressed twice now why I tried to unvote Morgrim: to give the town more time in a decision (A) we seemed a little unsure on (B) I was, truly and admittedly, unsure on. It was an action done in the hopes of saving an innocent man, nad had it succeeded, that's what it would have accomplished.
One other Voltgloss point. He's asked me why I suspect the mafia of being advanced players. Simply because they have not done anything sloppy and, oh yeah, they somehow managed to kill our cop on day one. They are winning this game. That's evidence enough.
All of that said, as much of a thorn in my side as I am finding Voltgloss right now, I suspect him less of being mafia than I did before.
Galzria and others have convinced me that probably only one of the voters is mafia. At the end of my last post, I said as much, and that I would be dropping my case against either Volt or Robz. I think a mafia would have responded to that hint by trying to get on my good side. Volt responded by stepping up his attack against me. That's points in favor of him being town, in my book.
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Jothronah makes a good point, and I've alluded to it in the past:
There was only a single post between Robz888's vote #4, and Morgrim7 killing himself.
This is rather important because nobody got a chance to respond to a very new situation. For Jotheonah's case in particular, it is a huge straw-man argument to make condemning him for the timing of his retracted vote. He either retracts it while Morgrim7 has 3 votes, or he never gets the chance to.
Now, I've made the argument that he shouldn't have been in the pool of votes at all if he was having doubts, and I think that's a fair case. But to get on him over the retracted vote during that time span? Come on. Really? If he is Mafia, how very stupid would that look? Whereas if he's town, having an "Oh shit, what just happened?" moment is MUCH more likely. He was the first responder. How ELSE would he respond to Morgrim's killing of himself?
Jotheonah: Not of the clear in my book, but looking more like the "excitable townie" you claim to be.
Voltgloss: I'll admit to being a bit lost in the whole "caught in a lie thing here, but I'll go back and throughly reread (again). I'm already a little wary of the way you and Robz888 put together some of your arguments for Morgrim. I fully acknowledge he did next to nothing to help his own case, but I've seen a lot of straw-man arguments from you two. It got Morgrim killed. IF you are a townie, watch that you don't build an empty case against another possible innocent here.
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Which is why I find it rather surprising that I'm being suspected primarily for retracting my unvote offer.
I'm not suspicious of you because you reversed the unvote proclamation. I'm suspicious because your actions did not reflect your words. Not really a lie, but it's curious. If you were so worried about a premature execution, why didn't you unvote as early as possible to prevent five votes from accumulating? It easily could have happened. You said that you would unvote on the condition that Morgrim gets a fourth vote. How would you have guaranteed that? A fifth vote could have easily fallen against Morgrim before you had the chance to unvote. I don't think you were that concerned about removing your vote.
I've been thinking about this over the weekend, and there is one other person who claims to have misgivings about the guilt of Morgrim while not really doing anything about it. His actions also do not reflect his words. That person is jotheonah. The big difference here is that he made his claim after Morgrim's fate was sealed. As I said, this could have been him misinterpreting the rules, or it could be an attempt to cover up his actions. Just like Voltgloss, he claims to be less than certain of Morgrim's guilt while keeping his vote squarely on him.
So, it's my belief that one of these two is Mafia. The way they have been pointing fingers at each other makes me believe they're not both Mafia. Or they are willing to sacrifice one so that the other is utterly trusted—a risky ploy. For now, I'm willing to drop my suspicions of Robz and Galzria. They're still on my radar, but Voltgloss and jotheonah have raised some serious flags that Robz and Galzria have not.
Which one am I leaning toward? This is a tough one. Voltgloss was pretty vocal early on about being willing to unvote, but he could have easily unvoted and then reapplied the vote once he had a reason. Instead, he merely promised to unvote and then retracted that promise once he had a reason. This is a game of action, and that passive stance does not sit well with me.
But at least Voltgloss is pretty steady in his accusation, while jotheonah threw accusations around left and right. Perhaps he was trying to find something that stuck. I had a tickle of suspicion when jotheonah posted in #64 that I was worthy of suspicion for posting silly comments even though others engaged in silly behavior early on too. That suspicion was allayed when I realized that he wasn't specifically singling me out. It struck me as a strange reason to suspect someone, but it is behavior that I'd expect from a self-confessed enthusiastic newbie.
I'm teetering, but I'm feeling pretty confident that it's one of these two.
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By the way, even though the deadline is June 1, I will be voting much sooner than that. I will be at Origins that week. I should be able to follow along between slots, but my focus will be on other games.
I'll hold off until the others have had a chance to speak.
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I'll hold off on responding to jotheonah because I think it better for the rest of the town to weigh in on our dispute (like Galzria has done) before either of us chime back in to support our arguments. Otherwise we may just get walls o' text going back and forth (I admit I am prone to wall-o-text syndrome).
I do have two quick thoughts in response to what Galzria has just posted to me.
I'm already a little wary of the way you and Robz888 put together some of your arguments for Morgrim. I fully acknowledge he did next to nothing to help his own case, but I've seen a lot of straw-man arguments from you two. It got Morgrim killed.
1. Which Day 1 arguments do you see as straw-man arguments (to the extent you have not already identified them)? And, which of us - me or Robz - advanced or supported those arguments? Make sure not to lump us together too blithely: if Robz made a point that I did not echo, that means I did not find it compelling or relevant. I assume Robz felt the same.
I do recall you've already said that you thought the whole "vote for no lynch = suspicious" argument is a straw man. I disagree with your position (as I understand it) that it is entirely irrelevant; but, I agree that by itself it was not sufficient cause for strong suspicion to be thrown on Morgrim (or jotheonah, for that matter; you will note I have not brought that up as a reason for suspecting jotheonah during Day 2, as I think its probative value as to the vote originator (jotheonah) is too weak to be useful, compared to its probative value as to a bandwagoner (Morgrim)). Which is why I did not vote for Morgrim until my suspicions had solidified due to other factors, as laid out in the post where voted for him.
I have not yet had a chance to go over Robz's posts in detail, but I do remember at least one post where he jumped on Morgrim for using the phrase "I claim to be a townie" rather than saying "I am a townie," or something to that effect. I'm not suggesting that post is enough to cast suspicion on Robz. But it is the kind of post that, because I did not echo it in my own accusation posts, I did not think was actually relevant to the question of Morgrim's guilt. Are there more such posts from Robz? Are there such posts from me? I encourage you and others to review with this question in mind and voice your conclusions for us to discuss.
IF you are a townie, watch that you don't build an empty case against another possible innocent here.
2. Absolutely right. Which is why I have not voted for jotheonah. I think he is suspicious; I think he is currently the most suspicious among us; but I am not sufficiently suspicious yet to be convinced enough to vote. If further events/analysis cast someone else as more suspicious than jotheonah, I certainly won't stick to accusing jotheonah simply because he is being, to use an apropos phrase, a thorn in my side. :)
Finally - and this doesn't seem to be a very contentious point, but I think it's worth noting - bozzball's recent actions plant him pretty firmly as "town" in my eyes. Mainly because I was watching to see when he most recently logged into the forum to check it, as I was curious whether he saw the results of Day 1's night kill and was sitting back waiting for discussion to play out. Turns out that the last time he logged into the forum before his most recent post was midday Friday - i.e., BEFORE the nightkill results were posted by Axxle. I have to believe that if he were Mafia, he would have checked the forum Friday night to see whether he and his compatriot killed a town role. The fact that he didn't suggests "town" to me.
Pre-post edit: Just saw Kuildeous's post. One quick question.
I've been thinking about this over the weekend, and there is one other person who claims to have misgivings about the guilt of Morgrim while not really doing anything about it. His actions also do not reflect his words. That person is jotheonah. The big difference here is that he made his claim after Morgrim's fate was sealed. As I said, this could have been him misinterpreting the rules, or it could be an attempt to cover up his actions. Just like Voltgloss, he claims to be less than certain of Morgrim's guilt while keeping his vote squarely on him.
After my post where I voted for Morgrim, when during Day 1 did I say I had misgivings about Morgrim's guilt? For that matter, when during Day 2 have I said that I was less than certain about Morgrim's guilt?
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I forgot to address something mentioned by Kuildeous. I don't want to be accused of ignoring it, so:
I'm not suspicious of you because you reversed the unvote proclamation. I'm suspicious because your actions did not reflect your words. Not really a lie, but it's curious. If you were so worried about a premature execution, why didn't you unvote as early as possible to prevent five votes from accumulating? It easily could have happened. You said that you would unvote on the condition that Morgrim gets a fourth vote. How would you have guaranteed that? A fifth vote could have easily fallen against Morgrim before you had the chance to unvote. I don't think you were that concerned about removing your vote.
At the time I made the offer, I did not expect anyone would quickhammer to 5 if someone brought us to 4. Doing so would have been incredibly suspicious if Morgrim turned out to be townie, given my (and, later, others') asking people to wait for Tables' analysis. So I assumed that if someone made the 4th vote, there would be plenty of time for me to log in, see it, and unvote if necessary.
I did not expect Morgrim to quickhammer himself. Who could possibly have expected that (from a townie)?
As for why I didn't just unvote to begin with? I didn't think it proper to retract my vote for Morgrim when nothing had actually yet happened to reduce my suspicion of him. Remember, at the time I was strongly convinced Morgrim was Mafia. Why should I let up the pressure if it wasn't necessary? 3 votes is more pressure than 2, and doesn't threaten a quickhammer like 4. It seemed the right level of pressure to keep things at.
It wasn't lost on me that we had just recently had 3 votes on someone I did not suspect nearly as much as Morgrim, and while that situation was remedied when Galzria changed his vote, I was concerned that it could crop up again if the pressure eased off of Morgrim too early.
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After my post where I voted for Morgrim, when during Day 1 did I say I had misgivings about Morgrim's guilt? For that matter, when during Day 2 have I said that I was less than certain about Morgrim's guilt?
I concluded that you were not so sure about Morgrim's vote based on this line:
If a 4th vote for Morgrim comes in before Tables returns, I will likely unvote to prevent a premature hammer-dropping.
It's true that you didn't say it outright, but that line indicates doubt about Morgrim's guilt. Yet, you did not simply unvote, which would have been a stronger indication of that doubt.
Although, in hunting down that quote, I realize now that you made no such promise. You said you would "likely unvote." That still could be a cover-up, but it's less damning than I initially thought.
I was not referring to your misgiving in Day 2…only on Day 1.
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Just so there is no confusion, here is my entire post from which Kuildeous has excerpted, for those assessing whether it indicates doubt about Morgrim's guilt:
Also, I would suggest that those others who have expressed an interest in voting Morgrim but have not yet done so (Robz, Insomniac) please wait and NOT drop the hammer until after Tables has had a chance to complete and provide his analysis this evening. I am very interested to hear Tables' thoughts before we move to a final decision.
If a 4th vote for Morgrim comes in before Tables returns, I will likely unvote to prevent a premature hammer-dropping. But if Tables' analysis does not convince me my suspicions of Morgrim are misplaced, I will be reinstating my vote.
Correction for typo: What is the "something" you are trying to find out?
Who is likely to be killed now that I am dead?
Morgrim, why are you trying to find this out? I can see at least two possible reasons, but I would like to know yours.
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Volts, the continuous pointing to Morgrim's No Lynch vote is the biggest thing, but jumping on him in post #210 also stood out. I didn't feel like his statement was a bald-faced lie, and given how available those facts were for you to check, it seemed an innocent mistake to me. He did say so shortly after that too, but you allowed that to be your motivator to not rescind your vote. It felt rather shallow to me.
Also, you did express some doubt in post #187 about Morgrim, although you did note not enough to rescind your vote at that time.
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Which is why I find it rather surprising that I'm being suspected primarily for retracting my unvote offer.
I'm not suspicious of you because you reversed the unvote proclamation. I'm suspicious because your actions did not reflect your words. Not really a lie, but it's curious. If you were so worried about a premature execution, why didn't you unvote as early as possible to prevent five votes from accumulating? It easily could have happened. You said that you would unvote on the condition that Morgrim gets a fourth vote. How would you have guaranteed that? A fifth vote could have easily fallen against Morgrim before you had the chance to unvote. I don't think you were that concerned about removing your vote.
I've been thinking about this over the weekend, and there is one other person who claims to have misgivings about the guilt of Morgrim while not really doing anything about it. His actions also do not reflect his words. That person is jotheonah. The big difference here is that he made his claim after Morgrim's fate was sealed. As I said, this could have been him misinterpreting the rules, or it could be an attempt to cover up his actions. Just like Voltgloss, he claims to be less than certain of Morgrim's guilt while keeping his vote squarely on him.
So, it's my belief that one of these two is Mafia. The way they have been pointing fingers at each other makes me believe they're not both Mafia. Or they are willing to sacrifice one so that the other is utterly trusted—a risky ploy. For now, I'm willing to drop my suspicions of Robz and Galzria. They're still on my radar, but Voltgloss and jotheonah have raised some serious flags that Robz and Galzria have not.
I would urge you to take another look at the entirety of Robz' first day behavior and the case I and others have advanced against him before you dismiss him. He's raised fewer flags mainly because he's yet to really weigh in on Day 2's discussion.
Which one am I leaning toward? This is a tough one. Voltgloss was pretty vocal early on about being willing to unvote, but he could have easily unvoted and then reapplied the vote once he had a reason. Instead, he merely promised to unvote and then retracted that promise once he had a reason. This is a game of action, and that passive stance does not sit well with me.
But at least Voltgloss is pretty steady in his accusation, while jotheonah threw accusations around left and right. Perhaps he was trying to find something that stuck. I had a tickle of suspicion when jotheonah posted in #64 that I was worthy of suspicion for posting silly comments even though others engaged in silly behavior early on too. That suspicion was allayed when I realized that he wasn't specifically singling me out. It struck me as a strange reason to suspect someone, but it is behavior that I'd expect from a self-confessed enthusiastic newbie.
I'm teetering, but I'm feeling pretty confident that it's one of these two.
So the question you need to answer is which is more suspicious: conviction/consistency or excitability/flexibility? Just keep in mind that the mafia already know who they're trying to kill. They're the ones who can afford conviction.
But in fact, Voltgloss and I both voted sparingly (Morgrim was the only person I cast a vote for on Day 1, if I remember right) and accused widely (in fact, Galzria attacked Voltgloss for throwing around accusations early on Day 1). So I'm not positive the difference you articulate is so substantial.
Early in the game, I admit I was grasping at threads in order to get a good conversation going. I'm not convinced that was productive, but I think everyone was doing pretty much that until some real scum tells (or what appeared to be scum tells) began to emerge.
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All of that said, as much of a thorn in my side as I am finding Voltgloss right now, I suspect him less of being mafia than I did before.
Galzria and others have convinced me that probably only one of the voters is mafia. At the end of my last post, I said as much, and that I would be dropping my case against either Volt or Robz. I think a mafia would have responded to that hint by trying to get on my good side. Volt responded by stepping up his attack against me. That's points in favor of him being town, in my book.
I don't really understand this at all, and it's sort of emblematic of why you have emerged, in my view, as the most suspicious Morgrim voter, when I initially suspected Galzria and Volt much more. All four of us killed this guy, the wrong guy, and there are fair reasons why each of us is supicious (Galzria was all over the place, Volt and I read like we are working in tandem, you expressed hesitance but didn't retract). But now you sound a lot to me like a mafia picking his next target. "I would be dropping my case against either Volt or Robz." This isn't a prosecution. You can suspect both of us. (Indeed, I sympathize with suspecting both of us.) Volt is mostly saying things that I also think about you, and have said ever since you started hedging your bets.
I'm already a little wary of the way you and Robz888 put together some of your arguments for Morgrim. I fully acknowledge he did next to nothing to help his own case, but I've seen a lot of straw-man arguments from you two. It got Morgrim killed.
This is a valid point. I full admit to hammering Morgrim hard. There were a lot of things that made me suspicious of him. But some of the things I said about him I said because I hoped it would provoke him, and possibly get him to confess or say something really incriminating. Or, if he respond reasonably, I might have reconsidered my vote. It's so hard to make these calls and read people, and one way of doing this is to provoke and irritate. I wouldn't have done this to him if I didn't already have strong suspicions. But so long as the mafia behave like rational people, it is hard to figure them out. I was hoping to provoke him into behaving irrationally, so that we could learn for certain whether he was mafia. (You can check the other game for evidence of this play style.) And let me point out, I did succeed at getting him to act irrationally... but instead of saying something that truly revealed his allegiance, he offed himself. And I am sorry about that.
Jtheonah's belated unvote of Morgrim read like an early attempt to create a narrative for himself, "I didn't really suspect poor, innocent Morgrim, I was confused by these other three." Perhaps that's a wise thing to do whether you're town or mafia. But I strongly suspect that 'hedging' is more likely to be a mafia thing to do, rather than a town thing.
All this is not to say that I now think jtheonah is mafia and Galz and Volt are totally in the clear. (Also, Galz and j could both be mafia.) Indeed, I said earlier that if not for j's post-morgrim behavior, I would probably suspect him the least. But I don't like how he's acting.
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For the record, and as I've stated previously, I too am "less" suspicious of Robz888. While he didn't come out firing everywhere, he did cast probes of suspicion early on to places other than Morgrim. Tables, Bozzball, and Kuildeous. Now, he didn't follow up on them, but I got the feeling that by the time he really got involved his mind was already made up. Remember, he was the first person to really level any real suspicions, and that started before post #100. So his tactics don't feel to far fetched from his stated norm.
Now, that doesn't completely clear him in my book. He wasn't stirring random pots, which I appreciated, but I thought his arguments were often weak. I wish he would say a bit more here, but I understand he's busy, and Mafia I is in a much more pressing state right now. Still, waiting before judgment, but I will note that he could NOT know he was casting the kill vote on Morgrim.
Right now, his "crimes" just seen less egregious.
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Ah, he just posted. Will review and update thoughts on Robz.
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Robz, let me explain the end comment about Voltgloss. Neither of you is in the clear as far as I'm concerned. Heck, none of us is.
However, I'm convinced one of the two of you is mafia. A mafioso at this point is trying to get enough people on his side to not get lynched. I mean, we all are, but that is the mafioso's primary objective, whereas our primary objective as town is to kill the mafia.
So, at the end of my post, I suggested that (A) Galzria has convinced me that it's far more likely one of you is mafia than both of you and that (B) in my next post I was going to review your posts and make a case for which of you is the most likely. It occurred to me that a mafioso reading that would see an opportunity to shake off one accuser by trying to influence me toward picking the other one. Volt didn't do that. But then, maybe my support is a liability at this point because so many people are so suspicious of me.
Robz, it jumps out at me about your most recent post:
All this is not to say that I now think jtheonah is mafia and Galz and Volt are totally in the clear. (Also, Galz and j could both be mafia.) Indeed, I said earlier that if not for j's post-morgrim behavior, I would probably suspect him the least. But I don't like how he's acting.
So you admit that your "case" against me is entirely based on Day 2. And so is everybody, for that matter. Whereas, the cases I've advanced against Robz and Voltgloss are based on their Day 1 actions. Day 1 actions are much more informational because they are informed by our new information about who died.
Why would you be more convinced by a case built on recent events surrounding people whose identities are still unknown then one built on older events informed by the known identities of Morgrim and Tables?
What is it that you don't like about how I'm acting?
On Day 2 I've been (1) remorseful about killing a townie and (2) adamant about finding the killer. Which of those troubles you?
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The problem with not being allowed to edit is you can post about how something is "more informational because its informed by information" and you get stuck with it. Not my finest literary moment.
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This post is enough to make me not want to vote for you.
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This post is enough to make me not want to vote for you.
This post was posted about jotheonah's post containing the information about the "more informational because its informed by information" post.
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So the question you need to answer is which is more suspicious: conviction/consistency or excitability/flexibility? Just keep in mind that the mafia already know who they're trying to kill. They're the ones who can afford conviction.
Wrong, wrong, wrong, totally wrong. The mafia don't need conviction/consistency. The townspeople need those things. Excitability and flexibility are the mafia's top tools for scoring lynch kills in their favor. There are way more town than mafia, so the more hedging the more flexibility, the more excitability, the more likely we are to expand the circle of suspicion to including way too many innocent people. We need conviction (based on evidence and reason, of course) to get the mafia. They don't need conviction or consistency to get us.
To state it practically, the mafia don't care if we kill Morgrim. They just care that we kill someone, because that person is likely not to be a mafia. I cared that we killed Morgrim specifically, and I was convicted and consistent in that respect because I suspected him, for reasons I've stated and that many people, including jtheonah at the time, agreed with.
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I have a question for Robz that may help focus our discussion:
This is a valid point. I full admit to hammering Morgrim hard. There were a lot of things that made me suspicious of him. But some of the things I said about him I said because I hoped it would provoke him, and possibly get him to confess or say something really incriminating. Or, if he respond reasonably, I might have reconsidered my vote. It's so hard to make these calls and read people, and one way of doing this is to provoke and irritate.
Which comments/posts of yours re: Morgrim fall into this "provoke and irritate" category, as opposed to points of solid suspicion?
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I'm sorry, I can't resist.
(http://i.qkme.me/3pdpwm.jpg)
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So you admit that your "case" against me is entirely based on Day 2.
I would say that's fair.
Why would you be more convinced by a case built on recent events surrounding people whose identities are still unknown then one built on older events informed by the known identities of Morgrim and Tables?
What is it that you don't like about how I'm acting?
On Day 2 I've been (1) remorseful about killing a townie and (2) adamant about finding the killer. Which of those troubles you?
Day 1 evidence is certainly important, I don't deny that at all. I'm trying to weigh the total evidence, and yeah, I don't have much on you until you unvoted Morgrim. And that wouldn't even look suspicious to me (he's acting crazy, unvote! I get that), except then you started talking about these reservations. Don't you see how reservations that do not stop the lynching are the mafia's best friends?
Remorse is fine. I'm remorseful, too. Shifting/denying blame is not okay, though, and you are doing that. I am admitting my fault. I was wrong about Morgrim and it hurt us. If this was a game of "execute the person who got things wrong the most," I would hang myself. But it's not. It's a game of "hang the person who is sitting there going along with people being lynched, because he likes lynching for lynching's sake, but doesn't mind bringing up the lynchers next round so they can die, because as long as someone dies, it's okay." Otherwise known as the game of Mafia.
I have a question for Robz that may help focus our discussion:
This is a valid point. I full admit to hammering Morgrim hard. There were a lot of things that made me suspicious of him. But some of the things I said about him I said because I hoped it would provoke him, and possibly get him to confess or say something really incriminating. Or, if he respond reasonably, I might have reconsidered my vote. It's so hard to make these calls and read people, and one way of doing this is to provoke and irritate.
Which comments/posts of yours re: Morgrim fall into this "provoke and irritate" category, as opposed to points of solid suspicion?
I will look back and post this in a few minutes.
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...<snip>... and there are fair reasons why each of us is supicious (Galzria was all over the place, Volt and I read like we are working in tandem, you expressed hesitance but didn't retract).
...<snip>...
I'm already a little wary of the way you and Robz888 put together some of your arguments for Morgrim. I fully acknowledge he did next to nothing to help his own case, but I've seen a lot of straw-man arguments from you two. It got Morgrim killed.
This is a valid point. I full admit to hammering Morgrim hard. There were a lot of things that made me suspicious of him. But some of the things I said about him I said because I hoped it would provoke him, and possibly get him to confess or say something really incriminating. Or, if he respond reasonably, I might have reconsidered my vote. It's so hard to make these calls and read people, and one way of doing this is to provoke and irritate. I wouldn't have done this to him if I didn't already have strong suspicions. But so long as the mafia behave like rational people, it is hard to figure them out. I was hoping to provoke him into behaving irrationally, so that we could learn for certain whether he was mafia. (You can check the other game for evidence of this play style.) And let me point out, I did succeed at getting him to act irrationally... but instead of saying something that truly revealed his allegiance, he offed himself. And I am sorry about that.
...<snip>...
Alright, let me work backwards here, starting from the bottom. Thank you for the response. While I may not like your methods, at least I have some understanding to them now. Your accusations often seemed harsh and unnecessary, but at least were directed with reason. I still don't find your arguments for your final case compelling, but it was obvious from very early on that you were at least convinced (or willing to push as hard as you needed to in order to draw something perhaps LESS damning out of him, which I'll argue he never really provided).
I'm still suspicious of everybody here, and you'll remain right up there if for no other reason than you're one of the 4 that sent Morgrim to his grave, but I stand by my thought that your crimes seem less egregious than the others at this time.
On to your first point, about me being scattered. Do you still believe this to be true? I've offered my reasons in post #261, but I'll restate things here. First, my vote on Voltgloss:
While the vote for Voltgloss was unneeded, I was making a point. I am (as posted above and in many other places) very, very, VERY against random accusations and a "stir-the-pot" playstyle that leads to confusion. If you have a point to make, BACK IT UP. Early on, Voltgloss did not do this. He fully admitted it. Once his actions became more directed and he started posting ideas for their analytical value, I quickly backed off.
In post #50 (very, very early on) Volt cast suspicion at Me, Robz888, and Bozzball. He then in quickly took issue to Jotheonah and Morgrim for their No Lynch talk in post #61 (although notably, as I've pointed out, NOT so much to Jotheonah whom he appeared to let slide to go after Morgrim).
Within ELEVEN posts, he had cast suspicion onto FIVE of the nine town members. He was erratic and all over the place! I absolutely 100% maintain, THIS STYLE OF PLAY ONLY HELPS THE MAFIA.
So the question you need to answer is which is more suspicious: conviction/consistency or excitability/flexibility? Just keep in mind that the mafia already know who they're trying to kill. They're the ones who can afford conviction.
Wrong, wrong, wrong, totally wrong. The mafia don't need conviction/consistency. The townspeople need those things. Excitability and flexibility are the mafia's top tools for scoring lynch kills in their favor. There are way more town than mafia, so the more hedging the more flexibility, the more excitability, the more likely we are to expand the circle of suspicion to including way too many innocent people. We need conviction (based on evidence and reason, of course) to get the mafia. They don't need conviction or consistency to get us.
To state it practically, the mafia don't care if we kill Morgrim. They just care that we kill someone, because that person is likely not to be a mafia. I cared that we killed Morgrim specifically, and I was convicted and consistent in that respect because I suspected him, for reasons I've stated and that many people, including jtheonah at the time, agreed with.
You appear to agree with me. After he stopped casting about and settled down (and as much since), I removed my vote. His thoughts and posts have become much more directed, and his reasons have all been well thought out, if not always correct in my opinion.
After unvoting Voltgloss, I next went after Bozzball. My stated reason: From post #151
...<snip>...
As to Bozzball: Robz888 was gone for awhile, came back, and made a courtesy post of "Hey, let me get caught up, and I'll post my thoughts". To me, at least, this seemed rather innocent. To Bozzball it apparently didn't, and he immediately cast a vote on Robz888.
That seemed over aggressive. Like I've said from the beginning, I don't like random play for the sake of randomness. It breeds confusion, the weapon of the Mafia. I'm very careful when I start making accusations to try and produce a well founded argument, so as to not allow uncertainty or wiggle room. I too work in journalism. Political Science focus. I'm very NOT red-meat oriented.
When I inquired further to Bozzball, his answer was short, and I felt rather unsatisfactory. Saying he just felt it was suspicious. It added nothing, and hardly built a case. Since then, he hasn't said a word, allowing for more confusion and accusations to fly while staying disengaged.
Being away in and of itself is not criminal. But the feel of his actions has left me more than suspicious. Would I go so far as to say he IS Mafia? No. But I don't mind applying pressure where I think it's needed.
As you can see, I absolutely did not find his actions criminal, just very suspicious. Did I need to cast my vote for him? No, but as it was early, and I had the first vote cast on him, I wasn't worried about bandwagoning or putting him into real harm. I just wanted to give him pause to think and force him to have to defend his actions. When Kuildeous cast the 3rd vote on Bozzball (following Morgrim, whose vote at the time looked like a "cast suspicion elsewhere" tactic) in post #165
I did actually vote for Insomniac, but it didn't take. I suspect because I omitted the colon, and I’m sure the moderator is searching for that (we do provide a lot of text to sift through).
My vote was pretty much random, but I then reread the rules and saw that a tie means that there is no lynch. So, if a no-lynch vote is bad for the town, then it would reason that a tie is just as harmful. So, I'm avoiding the random vote and jumping on the bandwagon. I will vote: bozzball and may the gods have mercy on us if we are wrong.
I would like to ask for a clarification. I know the Doctor and Jailkeeper can prevent a death. Does that include death from lynching?
I backed off RIGHT AWAY. Post #170:
- Bozzball, you keep saying you don't see how a first day vote can be anything but random. That suggests to me that you don't find the arguments against Morgrim convincing. I would like to hear more detail on why that is so.
Because the arguments seem to be that he should be lynched because he voted for "No lynch", and that he suggested people should get on and vote because there's not much benefit for waiting - as the first day vote will essentially be random. Both of these are arguments that I have made.
Those arguments, while I find... Less than innocuous, aren't tells as far as I'm concerned. Of greater worry to me, were points made in posts #118, #128, and #140. It's those arguments that have me UNVOTE: BOZZBALL, and instead VOTE: MORGRIM7. I've fully laid out the rest of my reasons to that move in posts #151, and #158.
I used my vote on Bozzball to try and force his hand, NOT to demonize or go after him. I was not at ALL convinced of guilt there, and certainly didn't want to see him get picked off when we had Morgrim, who was acting SO much more suspicious in our midst.
What concerned me (and still VERY much does), is that Kuildeous WAS willing to put Bozzball in danger when there wasn't any real case against him... especially as he was following up by casting a vote #3 AFTER MORGRIM WHO APPEARED TO BE GUILTY AT THE TIME CAST VOTE #2.
...<snip>...
My original plan for changing my vote to bozzball was to push the vote up to 3 to see if the Mafia players would jump on and push the vote to 5. Unfortunately, the vote is at 2, as Galzria changed his vote shortly after
...<snip>...
This not only keeps him out of the Morgrim picture and in a position of "safety", but it allows for a TINAS case, where if people abandon their thoughts of Morgrim's guilt (this means thinking he might be innocent), he's set up a fall-man in Bozzball - conveniently also Morgrim's choice.
So yes, I absolutely jumped out of the Bozzball vote column. To allow that line of thinking to continue seemed VERY dangerous to me, and MUCH more likely to lynch an innocent man. If this seems erratic or scattered, so be it. But I feel every action was done for a very clear reason, and I was never willing to put into danger anybody I wasn't comfortable lynching. Please let me know if this clears everything up with you, or if there is more I can say.
Also, I highly encourage people to take a second look at Kuildeous. His actions at first glance appear VERY "safe", and he was nowhere near the Morgrim fiasco. As I strongly believe there to be a Mafia that didn't vote for Morgrim, his "hedging" comes back as very very suspect. The fact that he further said (also from post #200)
Hell, in this post, I simultaneously condemned and exonerated Mogrim. Well, not really exonerate. I'll still vote for him if there's a compelling reason. People are eagerly awaiting Tables's analysis. I'll join in on that and see what he has to say.
It leaves me to believe that he was willing to get in and involved with Morgrim if he NEEDED to (in order to get an allusive vote #5 perhaps), but that we was hoping to get somebody else to do it for him!
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Here is a sampling of my anti-Morgrim posts. They were all sincere, but in some cases I made my case more abrasively and stridently, just because I want to needle him and see how he responded.
Reply #91I say back down from your No Lynch vote and you back down? No conviction there? Easy on the bandwagon, easy off the bandwagon.
I was wrong about what he was unvoting, and I was more or a jerk than I needed to be. But as I've said a lot (and a lot recently), not having conviction is scary. Go along to get along is scary. IT looked to me like he did this: he jumped on no lynch (a bad thing anyway) and then jumped off. I was actually wrong here about what he was doing, though.
Reply #142 I was responding to MorgrimThis is a mystifying response to me. "I will say this again and no more." I mean, if it's unclear or un-persuasive to us, why not say it more? Also, look, I know it sucks to have every little thing you say picked apart. Alas, that's what we have to do. And all CAPS responses look incriminating to me. They look overly defensive. They look like a mafia grasping at straws and getting angry that it's looking increasingly likely that he goes first. If you are innocent, we need you to explain why with calm, reasoned, lengthy posts, not "because I WANTED TO KNOW THEIR OPINION."
Perhaps it's a bit of needling to quibble with his line "I will say this again and no more."I don't think it's unfair, but it's not something that would stand up in court. But if you'll look at the rest of it, I think you'll see this was really a valid post explaining why Morgrim was a top suspect. And he was starting to lose it a bit, and that was the only way we were going to be sure about anything.
Reply #198 Surely you can muster a better defense than "I claim to be a villager." You meant to say, "I am a villager."
Probably the closest thing I said that was pure needling. Granted, he already has plenty of votes by now and I have enough to go on, in my view. But imagine if he had responded, "UGH, SCREW YOU, YOU'RE DEAD TONIGHT!!!!!!" Then we would know. And I know you're thinking, that's stupid, of course he wouldn't do that. Well, he did something that didn't (and still doesn't) make sense: he killed himself. So, though it didn't produce the desired result, the tactic has merit. And I wouldn't have said that to him unless I already had a lot of suspicions. And I did--so did we all. He already had a ton of votes by then.
By the way, I didn't even necessarily notice this the first time through, but shortly after the above post, Morgrim responded with this: So I am ruined then? Oh well. What will happen when you find out that I am mafia?
And more importanaly, who will.the mafia kill now that I am dead?
??? Was that sarcasm? I mean, obviously it was, but it sure doesn't read like it. Oh well.
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I think it would be helpful to hear Insomniac's take on all that has been argued since his last post. I see from checking his profile that he was last on about twenty minutes ago (as of the time I'm posting this).
I would ask for bozzball's take as well but his last post concerns me that he is leaning towards withdrawing from the game. I can't tell for sure though what his intentions are - heck, it sounds like he's in the process of mulling over what he wants to do. Axxle, would appreciate your thoughts on how to proceed re: bozzball. Maybe a PM to ask him to confirm whether he wants to withdraw or not? I dunno.
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I would also very much like to hear Robz's take on Galzria's suspicion of Kuildeous. Why Robz? Because if Galzria is right, then (most likely) Kuildeous is in a Mafia team with either me, jotheonah, Robz, or Galzria. I highly doubt he's teamed up with Galzria only for Galzria to throw him under the bus so vehemently. And Kuildeous for his part now sounds convinced that either I or jotheonah is Mafia. The only member of the "lynched Morgrim" group who Kuildeous has not strongly suspected (or has not strongly suspected him in turn) is Robz. So that, to my eye, makes it seem that if Kuildeous is Mafia, then Robz is his most likely accomplice.
I also remember this:
Tables and Kuildeous would be mostly in the clear in my view, but Tables is dead. So Kuildeous is the only one I don't truly suspect.
And this:
For now, I'm willing to drop my suspicions of Robz and Galzria. They're still on my radar, but Voltgloss and jotheonah have raised some serious flags that Robz and Galzria have not.
Which is why I want to hear what Robz has to say about the suspicion aimed at Kuildeous.
Shutting up now because I've been posting a lot. There's a lot I would like to read and digest before weighing in again.
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I said Kuildeous is almost certainly not mafia for this reason: He had the opportunity to vote for Morgrim, and didn't. Since we now know Morgrim was innocent, I assume the mafia would have voted for Morgrim. It's not clear to me that Insomniac and Bozzball were clued in to things at the time the votes were rolling in. But Tables and Kuildeous were active online, and commenting, and they specifically did not vote for Morgrim. If either of them were mafia, I think they would have.
Although, I guess it's worth considering that if the mafia were sure the town was going to lynch Morgrim anyway, they would NOT vote for him themselves. That's not something I've given much thought, actually. Hmm. Well, J, Volt, and me all voted Morgrim. I guess if you are Kuildeous and you are a mafia you might say, nah I'll let Tables or Bozz or Insomniac (or Morgrim?) cast that vote. Hmmm.
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I said Kuildeous is almost certainly not mafia for this reason: He had the opportunity to vote for Morgrim, and didn't. Since we now know Morgrim was innocent, I assume the mafia would have voted for Morgrim. It's not clear to me that Insomniac and Bozzball were clued in to things at the time the votes were rolling in. But Tables and Kuildeous were active online, and commenting, and they specifically did not vote for Morgrim. If either of them were mafia, I think they would have.
Although, I guess it's worth considering that if the mafia were sure the town was going to lynch Morgrim anyway, they would NOT vote for him themselves. That's not something I've given much thought, actually. Hmm. Well, J, Volt, and me all voted Morgrim. I guess if you are Kuildeous and you are a mafia you might say, nah I'll let Tables or Bozz or Insomniac (or Morgrim?) cast that vote. Hmmm.
Edit: J, Volt, me, and Galz all voted Morgrim.
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Why would you be more convinced by a case built on recent events surrounding people whose identities are still unknown then one built on older events informed by the known identities of Morgrim and Tables?
What is it that you don't like about how I'm acting?
On Day 2 I've been (1) remorseful about killing a townie and (2) adamant about finding the killer. Which of those troubles you?
Day 1 evidence is certainly important, I don't deny that at all. I'm trying to weigh the total evidence, and yeah, I don't have much on you until you unvoted Morgrim. And that wouldn't even look suspicious to me (he's acting crazy, unvote! I get that), except then you started talking about these reservations. Don't you see how reservations that do not stop the lynching are the mafia's best friends?
Remorse is fine. I'm remorseful, too. Shifting/denying blame is not okay, though, and you are doing that. I am admitting my fault. I was wrong about Morgrim and it hurt us. If this was a game of "execute the person who got things wrong the most," I would hang myself. But it's not. It's a game of "hang the person who is sitting there going along with people being lynched, because he likes lynching for lynching's sake, but doesn't mind bringing up the lynchers next round so they can die, because as long as someone dies, it's okay." Otherwise known as the game of Mafia.
How does talking about reservations = shifting/denying blame?
I will say it again to be totally clear. I suspected Morgrim along with everyone else. I voted for him because I suspected him. Towards the end, I started to doubt. First before he died, based on how little he was fighting to stay alive (I would have expected more kicking and screaming from the mafia and fewer defeatist sarcastic comments). The reservations were not enough for an unvote, in my book. I thought maybe it was an elaborate strategy to elicit just that response from me. Plus, He was only at three votes. It didn't seem like there was a pressing need to back down.
Robz voted. I didn't have a chance to unvote at that point, and I'm not sure I would have. Even though I thought there was maybe a 40% chance of Morgrim being innocent, I desperately wanted to see who threw the hammer. That info seemed more valuable than a living Morgrim - who would continue to be distracting, unhelpful, and suspicious.
Then Morgrim threw the hammer at himself. Because I happened to be online when it happened, I thought it fell to me to try to save him - and, more importantly, to recover that data. Believe me, I wish I hadn't, since all it's brought me is a level of suspicion that is quite frankly way out of proportion to what I've done.
So the question you need to answer is which is more suspicious: conviction/consistency or excitability/flexibility? Just keep in mind that the mafia already know who they're trying to kill. They're the ones who can afford conviction.
Wrong, wrong, wrong, totally wrong. The mafia don't need conviction/consistency. The townspeople need those things. Excitability and flexibility are the mafia's top tools for scoring lynch kills in their favor. There are way more town than mafia, so the more hedging the more flexibility, the more excitability, the more likely we are to expand the circle of suspicion to including way too many innocent people. We need conviction (based on evidence and reason, of course) to get the mafia. They don't need conviction or consistency to get us.
To state it practically, the mafia don't care if we kill Morgrim. They just care that we kill someone, because that person is likely not to be a mafia. I cared that we killed Morgrim specifically, and I was convicted and consistent in that respect because I suspected him, for reasons I've stated and that many people, including jtheonah at the time, agreed with.
Without someone beating a war drum, townspeople will argue until they're blue in the face. Why? Because they lack information, so any suspicion they have is just that, a suspicion. We don't feel sure of ourselves so we don't want to hang anybody. You're right that the townspeople need conviction, but they don't tend to have it, particularly not on Day 1.
Mafia don't need to see a specific person lynched, but they do need a lynching, and they need it to be directed at least enough to stay off them. One way to do this is to zero in on the townie who's the most suspicious and lead a charge against them. It's a bit obvious, but it's also, as we've all shown today, totally defensible in retrospect.
I agreed with your stated reasons at the time. Now I'm drawing into question whether your stated reasons were reason enough to kill Morgrim, or whether they were just rhetoric backing up a mafia-led bandwagon. If they were the latter, then yes, I'm saying I was taken in. I'm saying I was wrong. But I'm still saying we need to look closely at what was said and how much we OUGHT to have believed it.
I said Kuildeous is almost certainly not mafia for this reason: He had the opportunity to vote for Morgrim, and didn't. Since we now know Morgrim was innocent, I assume the mafia would have voted for Morgrim. It's not clear to me that Insomniac and Bozzball were clued in to things at the time the votes were rolling in. But Tables and Kuildeous were active online, and commenting, and they specifically did not vote for Morgrim. If either of them were mafia, I think they would have.
Although, I guess it's worth considering that if the mafia were sure the town was going to lynch Morgrim anyway, they would NOT vote for him themselves. That's not something I've given much thought, actually. Hmm. Well, J, Volt, and me all voted Morgrim. I guess if you are Kuildeous and you are a mafia you might say, nah I'll let Tables or Bozz or Insomniac (or Morgrim?) cast that vote. Hmmm.
There's no telling whether he would have eventually cast vote #5 after waiting for someone else to do it first. I don't find this defense very compelling.
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A wide circle of suspicion is good for the mafia, I agree. But a wide circle of suspicion doesn't lead to a kill. That takes a majority of votes, which means once that wide net has been cast, the mafia's goal is to guide the town in zeroing in on one victim, to make sure that victim isn't them.
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Jotheonah, your last point above after quoting Robz isn't quite in context. Robz was responding to Voltgloss, who in turn was responding to my STRONG feelings about the guilt of Kuildeous. I DID post reasons he had shown that he would cast a late vote. Robz had originally said he believed Kuildeous to be innocent. I've provided quotes and thoughts as to why I believe that to be incorrect. An issue you haven't really responded to. I highly encourage you to review my last few posts, and then Kuildeous's actions.
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Just a quick comment, as it jumped into my head.
I will say it again to be totally clear. I suspected Morgrim along with everyone else. I voted for him because I suspected him. Towards the end, I started to doubt. First before he died, based on how little he was fighting to stay alive (I would have expected more kicking and screaming from the mafia and fewer defeatist sarcastic comments). The reservations were not enough for an unvote, in my book. I thought maybe it was an elaborate strategy to elicit just that response from me. Plus, He was only at three votes. It didn't seem like there was a pressing need to back down.
About those "defeatist sarcastic comments" (an apt description): I thought Morgrim was trying to pull a TINAS. Still do, in fact.
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Galzria, I was hesitant to weigh in on Kuildeaous without contributing anything to the discussion, lest I seem scummy, and my finite mafia time has been largely taken up with self-defense, unfortunately.
However, your analysis is certainly damning. I've suspected Kuildeaous twice in the past, first, somewhat unseriously, for not having engaged in any serious analysis early on, and second, more seriously, for being willfully unhelpful in his insistence that the first day vote woud be essentially random.
Why advance that position? If you end up voting for an innocent, you can say "It was random anyway" and avoid blame. It also offers a convenient excuse for staying out of the Day 1 fracas, which, as we've discovered, is where Day 2 suspicions are born.
If it comes to voting time and a good chunk of the group comes out against Kuildeous, I won't hesitate to throw in my lot. As I've said before, he's my top suspect out of the non-Morgrim voters. I eagerly await his detailed defense post.
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Wow lots to read through I was in fact on but hadn't caught up by the time I had to go for breakfast will review and post in a few mins
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Jotheonah - That's fine, just wanted your view.
Insomniac - Take your time. Thorough observation is better than rushed. Look forward to reading where you're at.
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Jotheonah, your last point above after quoting Robz isn't quite in context. Robz was responding to Voltgloss, who in turn was responding to my STRONG feelings about the guilt of Kuildeous. I DID post reasons he had shown that he would cast a late vote. Robz had originally said he believed Kuildeous to be innocent. I've provided quotes and thoughts as to why I believe that to be incorrect. An issue you haven't really responded to. I highly encourage you to review my last few posts, and then Kuildeous's actions.
Okay, I may have lost track of Kuildeous and overstated his innocence. I was thinking he was not a Morgrim-is-guilty person, which mostly clears him in my view. But if he thought Morgrim was guilty and just didn't get around to putting a vote on, then yeah, he's suspicious.
At some point 2 mafia people had to decide how to handle day 1. We can assume they supported (actively or passively) the death of Morgrim, because Morgrim was innocent. We have to decide whether they set the lynch in motion (me, Volt), hopped on the bandwagon at key moments (Galz, jtheonah), chose to remain on the sidelines because they suspected Morgrim would die anyway (Kuildeous), or didn't do anything about Morgrim because there was no need for them to do so (Bozz, Insomniac). We also have to decide whether the mafia split their efforts, which is likely, or else the pairings would just be too obvious at this point.
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What concerned me (and still VERY much does), is that Kuildeous WAS willing to put Bozzball in danger when there wasn't any real case against him... especially as he was following up by casting a vote #3 AFTER MORGRIM WHO APPEARED TO BE GUILTY AT THE TIME CAST VOTE #2.
Fair enough. I did put Bozzball in danger. I have done things that made sense to me at the time but I recognize now that they weren't the best actions to take if I wanted to avoid getting hung. I've peppered my explanations throughout Day 1, but I'll consolidate them here.
Why did I vote indiscriminately for Insomniac?
When I started this game, I saw no reason to vote for anyone. I saw it as a 7/9 chance of lynching a townie. I originally felt that "No lynching" would have been the correct course of action, but I followed the arguments that explained why a NL vote would only hurt the town. Knowing that, I went ahead and cast a vote so that someone would get lynched. It seemed like voting was such an arbitrary thing, so my vote was indeed arbitrary. On that first day, I viewed everyone equally, so each of you had a 1 in 8 chance of getting my vote. It randomly fell on Insomniac.
Why did I change my vote to bozzball?
I felt like I had done my duty in casting my vote. I then reviewed the rules and saw that if there is not a majority of votes by the deadline, then the person who is lynched is the one with a plurality. If there is not a plurality, then there is no lynching. I was concerned that if we reached a deadlock, then we would miss out on an important lynching.
Why didn't I change your vote to Morgrim?
The straight answer is that it's because Morgrim did not look more guilty to me than the rest of you. Sure, he talked a lot, but no flags went up in me. Actually, I had no flags go up in Day 1; those popped up in Day 2. I was all for putting votes on him, but people requested that we wait until Tables came back with information. Since that seemed important to people, I was willing to wait.
Why vote so soon?
At the time, I didn't see the point in talking. A lot of posts went round and round. The more talking there was, the firmer that fingers were pointed. And they pointed incorrectly, so I still stand by my 1/9 chance of getting lynched. Although, it looks like the more you talk, the greater the chance, as Morgrim showed us. It seemed that everything that was going to be said had already been said. There was a hope that Tables would clear up something, but he didn't have any magical way of knowing that Morgrim was innocent. He had the same thing the rest of you did: a feeling. Two weeks seemed like a long time to deliberate without any evidence.
So, yeah, I am in the group of people who conceivably refrained from voting for Mogrim because it's a convenient Mafia thing to do. I can accept that. It's the same reason I hold suspicions of bozzball and Insomniac. I hope you see my point of view, but I wouldn't blame you if you don't. After all, if someone else were to claim that point of view, I'd still be suspicious of him.
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I have to correct something in my post quoted below.
I would also very much like to hear Robz's take on Galzria's suspicion of Kuildeous. Why Robz? Because if Galzria is right, then (most likely) Kuildeous is in a Mafia team with either me, jotheonah, Robz, or Galzria. I highly doubt he's teamed up with Galzria only for Galzria to throw him under the bus so vehemently. And Kuildeous for his part now sounds convinced that either I or jotheonah is Mafia. The only member of the "lynched Morgrim" group who Kuildeous has not strongly suspected (or has not strongly suspected him in turn) is Robz. So that, to my eye, makes it seem that if Kuildeous is Mafia, then Robz is his most likely accomplice.
The bolded part is incorrect. I don't know how, as I was Ctrl-F'ing my way through the thread, that I missed in post #253 that Kuildeous listed Robz as his #1 suspect at the time. This deals a significant blow to the theory that he and Robz are in cahoots.
I apologize. That was a bad error. Cue the screams "YOU LIED IN PURPOSE I'MMA VOTING YOU" ;)
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Are we going to take it as Gospel that our two mafias have never accused each other, even in the earliest stages of the game? Because that seems ... a little sloppy.
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OMG ITS VOLTGLOSS!
VOTE: VOLTGLOSS
...
Oh. Phooey. Nevermind.
UNVOTE
*Ahem*. Sorry Axxle! ;)
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Are we going to take it as Gospel that our two mafias have never accused each other, even in the earliest stages of the game? Because that seems ... a little sloppy.
I agree to an extent. I have no doubt that they would lightly go after their partner. I doubt they would hammer away (although I fully admit I could be wrong). But it seems to be a HUGE risk to be really going hard at their teammate.
Like I've said though, confusion is the Mafia's playground. So I wouldn't put much of anything past them.
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Kuildeous listed Robz as his #1 suspect at the time. This deals a significant blow to the theory that he and Robz are in cahoots.
To be fair, that theory still holds water. With the ability to recast votes, it doesn't really mean anything to say, "Such-and-such is my #1 suspect." It's easy to change your mind, especially when viewing the various arguments.
I downgraded Robz because he made some pretty compelling points. If he's not a townie, then he's a magnificent bastard for orchestrating this.
I'm also downgrading Galzria. Even though he has reason to suspect me, he hasn't jumped all over it. Of course, that could also still be a cover.
I'm still wavering between Voltgloss and jotheonah.
I think what'd be really funny is that the two people who had the least amount of time to commit to this (Insomniac and bozzball) were indeed Mafia, and we ended up killing ourselves out of paranoia simply because they didn't have the time to tilt the balance. It'd be downright hysterical.
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So here goes, Im gonna give my thoughts on everyone as that seems the best course of action, I'll start with my original 2 suspects and move into
the names i see in reverse chronological order till I've covered everyone including myself.
Voltgloss: Im still suspicious here but he hasn't done anything since I accused him to make me think he is mafia, his day 2 actions seem extremely
town to me and well he hasn't pointed the finger at anyone except when it was fairly unclear where people were leaning. Still suspicious but gonna
pull off for now
Robz: Wow this guy has made me more suspicious of him, everyone has pointed out how a wide spread suspicion is bad for the town and Robz has pointed
a finger at everyone, did we all need to be looked at yes, but Robz has tried to get the town to continue to suspect everyone and I'm not sure thats
good? If you were going to have your conviction at this point Robz where would it be? HIGHLY suspicious
Kuildeous: I dont have a good read here, Day 1 he treated it like a random lynch and while a random or at least psuedo random lynch is good for the
mafia, I'm not sure what to take here, Kuildeous would you mind doing up a post like this one describing your thoughts on everyone? Other people have
some pretty good reasons for throwing blame here, but I prefer to see how people think and let that base my actions rather than how people think of you
Question mark for me
Galzria: Another character I dont have that good of a read on, a lot of the posts have been decent summaries which while helpful don't get me a good read
on your feelings. That said the ones of substance have been defensive or when you have thrown out an accusation and it generally has been against the
consensus which doesn't seem mafia to me. You're a question mark for me but I'd lean toward town.
Insomniac: Am I mafia, well no. But my observation would be somewhat of a question mark as I haven't said a lot of things of substance on Day 1 which
makes it hard to judge me and the only time I did I threw suspicion at Mogrim and well people were pretty convincing that it was Morgrim and
Morgrim didn't help his case so yea I suspected him and hell I could have voted for him but I DIDNT. Not voting for him given the chance when it was
bandwagony but not too bandwagoney makes it unlikely I'm mafia. Of course this is a biased review and feel free to suspect me or vote for me, and I
will try as best I can to defend myself
Jotheonah: Well I am aware more so now that he could be mafia I highly doubt it. He and I are both admittedly new players. And perhaps he sees the game
differently than I do but there are 2 main reasons that I don't find him suspicious and one of them is a reason a lot of you are suspicious of him
1. Unvote: I would have unvoted had I voted and was logged on, because well I didn't know the votes were locked when it hit 5 and while that makes
sense I was unware and thought it only mattered when Axxle tallied the votes. And well I would have done the same so I can't use this as
a reason to hold against him
2. Bandwagonning: 2 Minutes after I posted my accusation of Voltgloss and Robz Jotheonah agreed. He had seen my post and acknowledged it.
This would draw a lot of attention to yourself and be VERY bandwagony which was looked at as mafia play on day 1. Since he had seen my
post he could have talked about my post or not posted at all, but he still posted his accusation.
Overall suspicion low but higher than Galzria and Kuildeous
Bozzball: I'm nearly certain he isn't mafia, Voltgloss pointed out that he hadn't logged on since midday on Friday and I'm inclined to believe this because
unless Voltgloss and Bozzball are both mafia Voltgloss has no reason to lie about this. Additionally since bozball has expressed guilt at not being able
to play more and considering being replaced I would have to thoroughly think this guy is town. I could be convinced otherwise but it would take a lot
and with the information he's given us its unlikely that I'll sway from this thought
And well thats everyone. If I had to vote now I would vote for Robz. But Im not voting yet, we need more time to settle down and a premature hammer screwed
us last time. And well I just don't know who to think is Robz partner if he is mafa, but I'm working on it.
I'll be out for a while now but I'll review all the posts made after this and post some form of update if needed when I get back
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Kuildeous listed Robz as his #1 suspect at the time. This deals a significant blow to the theory that he and Robz are in cahoots.
To be fair, that theory still holds water. With the ability to recast votes, it doesn't really mean anything to say, "Such-and-such is my #1 suspect." It's easy to change your mind, especially when viewing the various arguments.
I downgraded Robz because he made some pretty compelling points.
Such as?
If he's not a townie, then he's a magnificent bastard for orchestrating this.
I'm also downgrading Galzria. Even though he has reason to suspect me, he hasn't jumped all over it. Of course, that could also still be a cover.
Wait, what? Galzria has been all over you. And also, I don't understand why his not attacking you would clear his name. Basically I don't understand this sentence at all.
I'm still wavering between Voltgloss and jotheonah.
I think what'd be really funny is that the two people who had the least amount of time to commit to this (Insomniac and bozzball) were indeed Mafia, and we ended up killing ourselves out of paranoia simply because they didn't have the time to tilt the balance. It'd be downright hysterical.
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Robz: Wow this guy has made me more suspicious of him, everyone has pointed out how a wide spread suspicion is bad for the town and Robz has pointed
a finger at everyone, did we all need to be looked at yes, but Robz has tried to get the town to continue to suspect everyone and I'm not sure thats
good? If you were going to have your conviction at this point Robz where would it be? HIGHLY suspicious
What? Everyone has NOT pointed out that widepsread suspicion is bad for the town. I pointed that out when jethonah was saying the opposite! Check out my post #302:
"The mafia don't need conviction/consistency. The townspeople need those things. Excitability and flexibility are the mafia's top tools for scoring lynch kills in their favor. There are way more town than mafia, so the more hedging the more flexibility, the more excitability, the more likely we are to expand the circle of suspicion to including way too many innocent people. We need conviction (based on evidence and reason, of course) to get the mafia. They don't need conviction or consistency to get us.
To state it practically, the mafia don't care if we kill Morgrim. They just care that we kill someone, because that person is likely not to be a mafia. I cared that we killed Morgrim specifically, and I was convicted and consistent in that respect because I suspected him, for reasons I've stated and that many people, including jtheonah at the time, agreed with."
I have not gotten the town to suspect everyone. I very specifically went after one person who I thought was mafia. This round I have indicated that I find some of j's posts suspicious (though by no means damning!), and it's ludicrous not to suspect everyone else at least a little bit, but... I'm certainly not firing-on-all-cylinders-accuse-accuse-accuse. I'm just not doing that all.
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Okay, I'm not going to be able to move on from this. What Insomniac just said about me is simply not true, right?
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So here goes, Im gonna give my thoughts on everyone as that seems the best course of action, I'll start with my original 2 suspects and move into
the names i see in reverse chronological order till I've covered everyone including myself.
Voltgloss: Im still suspicious here but he hasn't done anything since I accused him to make me think he is mafia, his day 2 actions seem extremely
town to me and well he hasn't pointed the finger at anyone except when it was fairly unclear where people were leaning. Still suspicious but gonna
pull off for now
False. He pointed the finger on day one very early, and for Morgrim.
Robz: Wow this guy has made me more suspicious of him, everyone has pointed out how a wide spread suspicion is bad for the town and Robz has pointed
a finger at everyone, did we all need to be looked at yes, but Robz has tried to get the town to continue to suspect everyone and I'm not sure thats
good? If you were going to have your conviction at this point Robz where would it be? HIGHLY suspicious
I insist this is a lie, as I said in the past post.
Kuildeous: I dont have a good read here, Day 1
Galzria: Another character I dont have that good of a read on, a lot of the posts have been decent summaries which while helpful don't get me a good read
on your feelings. That said the ones of substance have been defensive or when you have thrown out an accusation and it generally has been against the
consensus which doesn't seem mafia to me. You're a question mark for me but I'd lean toward town.
Have Galzria's actions been against the consensus? Uh, I don't think they have been. I think they have been very much with consensus, re: Bozzball and Morgrim.
So I think Insomniac's thoughts on me, Voltgloss, and Galz are highly misleading and in some cases false. Would appreciate if people backed mu up here. I am quite sure I'm being fair to him.
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Just because someone suspects me doesn't mean I'm going to immediately suspect him. It's possible that Galzria is Mafia trying to get me strung up to draw attention away from him (or his accomplice).
But it's not a guarantee.
Galzria backed down rather than go for the throat. Maybe he's trying to win me over, but I feel more comfortable backing off of him.
Do keep in mind that I have made no claims that someone is a townie. Just because I've backed off of Galzria and Robz doesn't mean that I consider them safe. It could mean that they are very crafty.
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When did galzria back off of you? DId I just miss that in the flurry of posts?
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I'm also downgrading Galzria. Even though he has reason to suspect me, he hasn't jumped all over it. Of course, that could also still be a cover.
Wow, umm, this makes NO sense to me. It reads like you didn't expect to get called out and are suddenly trying to make allies. Are you trying to say because I haven't voted for you? I haven't voted for anybody so I don't risk another bad lynch. I already recognized I was on the WRONG side of the Morgrim vote. But this... This seems REALLY shady to me. I've been VERY vocal about you.
I get a BAD vibe from this.
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Robz, I think you and Insomniac may be talking past each other. I thought Insomniac was talking about his read of Day 2 events. You seem to be reading his post as talking about Day 1 events.
Example: Insomniac's comment about Galzria's actions being against the consensus. If he's talking about Day 1, you're right, this doesn't make sense when you consider his votes on Bozzball and Morgrim. But if Insomniac is talking about Day 2 - I can sorta see it. Galzria's suspicions have been pretty focused on Kuildeous, while the rest of us have been bandying back and forth about the four Morgrim-voters. I can understand calling this "against the consensus."
Before weighing in on Insomniac's thoughts on you or on me, I think it's important that Insomniac clarify his posts (are they about Day 1 or Day 2 events?) and you clarify how you're reading them (about Day 1 or Day 2 events?).
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Ugh, I hate being hampered by posting from my mobile.
Robz: While I won't deny being "With the consensus" re: Morgrim, where do you get that idea from re: Bozzball? I was the first (and only) person to make a case against him, and got out when it appeared he was going to get bandwagoned.
Regarding your point about yourself (in defense from Insomniac): I will support your claim that you've been defending the towns need for conviction when the Mafia wants confusion. It resonated well with me as I've been making the same point all game.
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When did galzria back off of you? DId I just miss that in the flurry of posts?
I echo jotheonah's confusion about Kuildeous's latest comments re: Galzria. I don't know what to take from it because I'm flat-out puzzled.
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The only thing I can think is that Kuildeous thought Galzria's gag vote for Voltgloss was a serious vote.
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The only thing I can think is that Kuildeous thought Galzria's gag vote for Voltgloss was a serious vote.
I'd love to use that as an excuse, but apparently I screwed up. I thought I read Galzria correct a misconception about me, when he could have jumped all over it. I can't find that post. Not that it matters now, but Galzria is back on my top suspects, but he's still below J and V.
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I’m writing this while the forum is down, so what I post probably won’t take into account some of the preceding messages. I’ll be pretty busy tonight and tomorrow, so I cannot say much outside of, “I’m innocent.”
Still, I’ll list my beliefs, but I don’t have the time to look through the forum right now and probably won’t be able to in a timely fashion. If I make an error, I apologize and will be glad to fix it.
Insomniac – Hard to get a read on him in Day 1, since the lynching happened before he could say too much. I barely have much of a read on him in Day 2. The biggest argument for him being Mafia is that he has been in the wings for so much. Of course, that could just be happenstance. I’ve not felt the need to vote on him…at least not compared to others.
bozzball – I can’t confirmed Voltgloss’s assertion that bozzball was not logged in during the night. Even if it’s true, that doesn’t 100% clear him, as it only takes one Mafia member to kill. Even if the Mafia does not submit a name, a victim is chosen at random. The fact that he is acknowledging that he may need to drop out indicates that he may well be a townie. He is at the bottom of my list.
Robz888 – I have a hard time reading this guy. He’s very helpful and thorough. He’s a great asset to the town—if he’s a townie. I fully recognize that he could be a sneaky Mafia who is trying to win us over. I still suspect him, but he is not at the top of my list anymore.
Galzria – I am putting him back on my suspect list. I misattributed something to him and thought, “Well, if he’s Mafia, he would have been all over that.” Since my recollection of what happened is incorrect, Galzria is back on. He’s #3 on my list.
Voltgloss – I’m still suspicious of him. He indicated a desire to unvote if Mogrim got four votes, but he did nothing to ensure that there wouldn’t be a fourth vote (or at least make a fifth vote into a fourth vote). He also harped a lot on technicalities that could easily have been mistakes (indeed was a mistake in Mogrim’s case). He’s my #2 suspect.
jotheonah – I’m with Robz on this one. It doesn’t bother me that J expressed remorse for Mogrim’s death. It bothers me that he came out in Day 2 claiming that he didn’t feel that Mogrim was guilty. Yet, he did not retract his vote. I think his action speaks louder than words.
Take those as you may.
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To clarify something:
bozzball – I can’t confirmed Voltgloss’s assertion that bozzball was not logged in during the night. Even if it’s true, that doesn’t 100% clear him, as it only takes one Mafia member to kill. Even if the Mafia does not submit a name, a victim is chosen at random. The fact that he is acknowledging that he may need to drop out indicates that he may well be a townie. He is at the bottom of my list.
I didn't say bozzball wasn't logged in during the night. In fact, he was logged in at some point during the nighttime phase - he was logged in around Friday midday. I said that he wasn't logged in when the nighttime kill results were posted - i.e., when Axxle posted them Friday evening. And he still hadn't logged in at all up until when he first posted today. My point is that, if he were Mafia, I'd have expected him to log into the forums at some point close to when Axxle announced the kill results, to see if he and his compatriot successfully offed a role (or, indeed, made a successful kill at all - they could have been blocked by a Jailor or Doctor for all they knew).
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I downgraded Robz because he made some pretty compelling points.
Such as?
Much of 254. His points were laid out nicely. Although, in rereading that post, I see two things that are raising flags for me.
First, he reminds us that he held off on voting for Morgrim until Tables came back with information. This is true up until he determined that Tables wouldn’t have anything. As someone who felt that the more information would not have been helpful, I can certainly agree with Robz’s point. Still, there was plenty of time, so he easily could have withheld his vote, even after V gave his blessing.
Second, in #254 he does not level a finger at me…at all. That’s great for me, but it also means that if Robz does turn out to be Mafia, then I’ll be fingered as his accomplice. That puts me in a dangerous spot. Perhaps he anticipated that he’d be the #1 suspect, being the penultimate voter, and he could take me down with him. I may be reading too much into it, though.
I’d say that Robz is #4 on my list right now. This kind of troubles me because my first four suspects are all Morgrim-killers. I still don’t think that both Mafia members voted on him. I need to take a close look at Insomniac and bozzball.
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To clarify something:
bozzball – I can’t confirmed Voltgloss’s assertion that bozzball was not logged in during the night. Even if it’s true, that doesn’t 100% clear him, as it only takes one Mafia member to kill. Even if the Mafia does not submit a name, a victim is chosen at random. The fact that he is acknowledging that he may need to drop out indicates that he may well be a townie. He is at the bottom of my list.
I didn't say bozzball wasn't logged in during the night. In fact, he was logged in at some point during the nighttime phase - he was logged in around Friday midday. I said that he wasn't logged in when the nighttime kill results were posted - i.e., when Axxle posted them Friday evening. And he still hadn't logged in at all up until when he first posted today. My point is that, if he were Mafia, I'd have expected him to log into the forums at some point close to when Axxle announced the kill results, to see if he and his compatriot successfully offed a role (or, indeed, made a successful kill at all - they could have been blocked by a Jailor or Doctor for all they knew).
Ah, I see. Thanks for clearing that up. With that knowledge, I still cannot see much reason to suspect him too heavily. I'll feel like a chump if he is Mafia, though.
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I can't make a claim about what you did or did not read. But a timeline:
- I called you out for stated reasons. You've been sitting comfortably up until this point.
- You more or less ignore my first two posts about my suspicions.
- I reiterate my beliefs and get people reading/considering those points.
- You back off earlier accusations of me for a bogus reason.
- You get called out by Jotheonah, Voltgloss, and myself.
- You retract your statement of believed innocence on my part.
Now, if you were an outside observer, how would you read these events? And I have a hard time believing you saw a post where I backed off. Out of curiosity, what was it that I didn't jump all over?
Anyway, I'll let others cast their opinions on the above. You are definitely #1 suspect for me right now. I'm torn between Voltgloss and Jotheonah though, and still wary of Robz888, who is sitting back this round - especially in comparison to how he played last round.
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- I called you out for stated reasons. You've been sitting comfortably up until this point.
Completely fair.
- You more or less ignore my first two posts about my suspicions.
Please reiterate these points. I missed them.
- You back off earlier accusations of me for a bogus reason.
Never assume that I stopped accusing you. Just because someone else is more suspicious doesn't get you off the hook.
Now, if you were an outside observer, how would you read these events? And I have a hard time believing you saw a post where I backed off. Out of curiosity, what was it that I didn't jump all over?
I couldn't tell you. I am not keeping up with posts as well as I could have. Unlike bozzball, I am trying to keep up, and I'm failing.
Anyway, I'll let others cast their opinions on the above. You are definitely #1 suspect for me right now. I'm torn between Voltgloss and Jotheonah though, and still wary of Robz888, who is sitting back this round - especially in comparison to how he played last round.
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I'm also downgrading Galzria. Even though he has reason to suspect me, he hasn't jumped all over it. Of course, that could also still be a cover.
You didn't back down on your accusations of me?
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So here goes, Im gonna give my thoughts on everyone as that seems the best course of action, I'll start with my original 2 suspects and move into
the names i see in reverse chronological order till I've covered everyone including myself.
Voltgloss: Im still suspicious here but he hasn't done anything since I accused him to make me think he is mafia, his day 2 actions seem extremely
town to me and well he hasn't pointed the finger at anyone except when it was fairly unclear where people were leaning. Still suspicious but gonna
pull off for now
False. He pointed the finger on day one very early, and for Morgrim.
Robz: Wow this guy has made me more suspicious of him, everyone has pointed out how a wide spread suspicion is bad for the town and Robz has pointed
a finger at everyone, did we all need to be looked at yes, but Robz has tried to get the town to continue to suspect everyone and I'm not sure thats
good? If you were going to have your conviction at this point Robz where would it be? HIGHLY suspicious
I insist this is a lie, as I said in the past post.
Kuildeous: I dont have a good read here, Day 1
Galzria: Another character I dont have that good of a read on, a lot of the posts have been decent summaries which while helpful don't get me a good read
on your feelings. That said the ones of substance have been defensive or when you have thrown out an accusation and it generally has been against the
consensus which doesn't seem mafia to me. You're a question mark for me but I'd lean toward town.
Have Galzria's actions been against the consensus? Uh, I don't think they have been. I think they have been very much with consensus, re: Bozzball and Morgrim.
So I think Insomniac's thoughts on me, Voltgloss, and Galz are highly misleading and in some cases false. Would appreciate if people backed mu up here. I am quite sure I'm being fair to him.
RE: Voltgloss: I didn't say anything about day 1, I said he hasn't pointed fingers hard on day 2, this has nothing to do with Morgrim
RE: Galzria I was also talking day 2 though I'm aware now that may have not been clear, my appologies there. Yes on Day 1 he was very with the consensus, but when I was reading that he never really stood out to me maybe thats good mafia play maybe not
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While I appreciate Insomniac clarifying that he was talking about Day 2 events when analyzing me and Galzria, I find it peculiar that Insomniac offered nothing in response to Robz saying that his (Insomniac's) analysis of Robz is a lie.
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I'm also downgrading Galzria. Even though he has reason to suspect me, he hasn't jumped all over it. Of course, that could also still be a cover.
You didn't back down on your accusations of me?
Not in comparison to J and V. Even if what I thought had happened really did happen, that still doesn't clear you. I just had bigger targets to focus on.
If you want to focus on this mistake and presume that I had motivation to lie about that, then I cannot stop you. I will urge that you focus on actions taken. That's why I still have J and V on my list. While G is still on my list, he hasn't actually done anything that raises bigger flags. His vote on Morgrim is suspicious, but I cannot fault him for it.
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Robz: Wow this guy has made me more suspicious of him, everyone has pointed out how a wide spread suspicion is bad for the town and Robz has pointed
a finger at everyone, did we all need to be looked at yes, but Robz has tried to get the town to continue to suspect everyone and I'm not sure thats
good? If you were going to have your conviction at this point Robz where would it be? HIGHLY suspicious
What? Everyone has NOT pointed out that widepsread suspicion is bad for the town. I pointed that out when jethonah was saying the opposite! Check out my post #302:
"The mafia don't need conviction/consistency. The townspeople need those things. Excitability and flexibility are the mafia's top tools for scoring lynch kills in their favor. There are way more town than mafia, so the more hedging the more flexibility, the more excitability, the more likely we are to expand the circle of suspicion to including way too many innocent people. We need conviction (based on evidence and reason, of course) to get the mafia. They don't need conviction or consistency to get us.
To state it practically, the mafia don't care if we kill Morgrim. They just care that we kill someone, because that person is likely not to be a mafia. I cared that we killed Morgrim specifically, and I was convicted and consistent in that respect because I suspected him, for reasons I've stated and that many people, including jtheonah at the time, agreed with."
I have not gotten the town to suspect everyone. I very specifically went after one person who I thought was mafia. This round I have indicated that I find some of j's posts suspicious (though by no means damning!), and it's ludicrous not to suspect everyone else at least a little bit, but... I'm certainly not firing-on-all-cylinders-accuse-accuse-accuse. I'm just not doing that all.
Pointing out that widespread suspicion is bad while pointing a finger at everyone? Even if not everyone is saying it (A lot of people have brought it up since you, I had originally thought you posted it but couldnt find the post so I didnt want to say that you said it and then pointed a finger without evidence).
And post number 254 is where you point a finger at everyone, you analyze everyone which is fine but you proceed to suspect most of us of being mafia or at least the possibility is entertained
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While I appreciate Insomniac clarifying that he was talking about Day 2 events when analyzing me and Galzria, I find it peculiar that Insomniac offered nothing in response to Robz saying that his (Insomniac's) analysis of Robz is a lie.
How didn't I? I addressed the part that made it a lie by clarifying I was talking about Day 2. And I also JUST posted a rebuttal to his widespread suspicion post? What have I not addressed?
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While I appreciate Insomniac clarifying that he was talking about Day 2 events when analyzing me and Galzria, I find it peculiar that Insomniac offered nothing in response to Robz saying that his (Insomniac's) analysis of Robz is a lie.
How didn't I? I addressed the part that made it a lie by clarifying I was talking about Day 2. And I also JUST posted a rebuttal to his widespread suspicion post? What have I not addressed?
1. In your first post, you didn't say you were talking about Day 2 with respect to Robz. You didn't say anything about Robz, in fact.
2. My post was made before your second post about Robz. I can't be expected to know about a post you haven't made yet. :)
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Like I said, I cannot say as to what you did or did not read. I am still curious as to what I did not "jump all over". Still, I stand by that timeline as what appeared to transpire, and TWO other people read you as backing down from me, before I posted about it.
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Post #352 is directed at Kuildeous. Apologies for the lack of clarity and no quote for reference.
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While I appreciate Insomniac clarifying that he was talking about Day 2 events when analyzing me and Galzria, I find it peculiar that Insomniac offered nothing in response to Robz saying that his (Insomniac's) analysis of Robz is a lie.
How didn't I? I addressed the part that made it a lie by clarifying I was talking about Day 2. And I also JUST posted a rebuttal to his widespread suspicion post? What have I not addressed?
1. In your first post, you didn't say you were talking about Day 2 with respect to Robz. You didn't say anything about Robz, in fact.
2. My post was made before your second post about Robz. I can't be expected to know about a post you haven't made yet. :)
1)Fair enough I have since made the previous post to which i referred which calls upon a specific post, Mostly with Robz its in general but alot of my weighing in has been based on the second day.
2)Agreed :)
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I'm happy that some of the less vocal posters are weighing in on recent events. However, I'm disappointed that K, at least, is reiterating arguments that have already been made without reference to rebuttals that have already been posted. It's a waste of everyone's time to rehash the same accusations and then have to rehash the same defenses. We need to move the conversation forward.
I still believe the most plausible thing at this point is that either Robz or Volt is one mafia and Kuildeaous is the other. Insomniac's last posts have been strange and not that helpful - vague, partly inaccurate, not definitive. But they don't necessarily read mafia to me.
Because K is the half that I'm sure about, he would get my vote were voting to begin.
I'm not sure where we need to go next as a group, but I'm starting to feel a loss in conversational productivity. Maybe someone needs to try to make a post summing up the arguments that have been made and the responses, adequate and inadequate that have been made to them? I might be able to do such a thing tomorrow morning, but I would love it if someone else would volunteer.
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I'm not sure where we need to go next as a group, but I'm starting to feel a loss in conversational productivity. Maybe someone needs to try to make a post summing up the arguments that have been made and the responses, adequate and inadequate that have been made to them? I might be able to do such a thing tomorrow morning, but I would love it if someone else would volunteer.
I agree a summary "roadmap" of the ground we've covered so far would be helpful. But I'm concerned that a summary of arguments and responses risks attack on the grounds of "why did you leave out fact X" or "you inaccurately summarized my argument" or somesuch. Which discussion I don't think is bad, but it will render the summary fairly useless as an actual roadmap.
I'm thinking maybe a simpler roadmap that isn't so subjective might be of help. I'm envisioning something like this template, with one summary for each player:
Player: Duchess
- R#1 - strongly suspects Minion; mildly suspects Salvager, Swindler
- R#8 - Envoy strongly suspects her
- R#14 - Pawn ranks her #3 suspect (after Minion, Swindler)
- R#26 - strongly suspects Envoy; mildly suspects Minion; no longer suspects Swindler, Salvager
- R#31 - Envoy votes against her
- R#32 - votes for Envoy
I.e., just summarizing for each person whom they suspect (with "mildly" or "strongly" modifiers, or maybe just listing them as #1, #2, #3 suspects), who suspects them, who they vote for, and who voted for them. I think it's important to have it chronological for each person so we can see the ebb and flow of argument over time.
Kinda similar to the summary post Galzria made a while back, but a bit more detailed to show how people's suspicions have changed (or not) over time.
Thoughts on format? I know I for one would appreciate seeing the history of everyone's behavior mapped out this way. For assessing the detailed merits of each person's arguments/defenses, we can then cross-reference the posts in question.
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That was indeed my basic attempt earlier. Feel free to put a newer one together with slightly more detail. I knew there were risks in mistakes, but felt people would understand the reason behind the post and not be unkind over them. Just leave the door open for corrections. I promise to be nice! ;)
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Here's my admittedly rough attempt at a roadmap. I tried to leave out posts where people reiterate suspicions they've previously made, or defend themselves against others' suspicions, or generally don't seem to have changed their views from the last time they voiced suspicions. I fully expect I've missed some things here and there. If you(any of you) see something you think I failed to include or described incorrectly, please post an updated version of this list with your edits included. I would suggest you mark them in boldface so we can more clearly see what you're updating. Thanks.
Not offering analysis at this point because I want this roadmap to be a "clean" (i.e., non-opinionated) post. Also I want to give people an opportunity to weigh in on its completeness before I dig down into analyzing from it.
Day 2 Suspicion Roadmap (players listed in alphabetical order)
bozzball
(254: R suspects either him or I)
-281: no strong suspicions
Galzria
(254: R questions him)
(257: J does not suspect him)
-261: ranks J (#1), V (#2), R (#3) of lynchers; ranks K (#1), B (#2), I (#3) of non-lynchers
-286: has less suspicion of J
(287: K does not suspect him)
-306: suspects K
-333: suspects K strongly
(338: K suspects him, though less than V or J)
Insomniac
-247: votes for V; also suspects R
(248: V suspects him)
(254: R suspects either him or B)
-260: unvotes V; suspects R (#1), V (#2)
(283: V does not suspect him)
-326: ranks suspects R (#1), V (#2), J (#3), K (#4), G (#5), B (#6)
(330: R cites him as liar)
jotheonah
-250: suspects V and R
(254: R suspects him)
-257: does not suspect G
(259: V suspects him and I)
(261: G suspects him)
-263: ranks V (#1), R (#2) of lynchers; ranks K (#1), B (#2) of non-lynchers
(267: K suspects him)
(283: V suspects him)
-285: has less suspicion of V
(286: G suspects him less)
(287: K suspects him and V)
-294: suspects one of V and R
(295: R suspects him)
-316: suspects/would vote for K
(325: K suspects him or V)
(339: K ranks him #1 suspect)
Kuildeous
-253: suspects R (#1), G (#2), V (#3)
(254: R does not suspect him)
(261: G suspects him)
(263: J suspects him)
-267: suspects V and J
(283: V does not suspect him)
-287: suspects V and J; does not suspect R and G
(306: G suspects him)
(316: J suspects/would vote for him)
(319: R is less sure of his innocence)
-325: suspects V or J
(333: G suspects him strongly)
-339: ranks suspects J (#1), V (#2), G (#3), R (#4), I (#5), B (#6)
Robz888
(247: I suspects him)
(250: J suspects him and V)
(253: K suspects him)
-254: suspects J strongly; also suspects V and G; suspects one of I and B; does not suspect K
(260: I suspects him)
(287: K does not suspect him)
(294: J suspects him or V)
-295: suspects J (#1), then V and G
-319: less sure of K's innocence
(326: I ranks him #1 suspect)
-330: cites I as liar
Voltgloss
(247: I votes for him)
-248: suspects I
(250: J suspects him and R)
-259: suspects I and J
(260: I unvotes him)
(263: J suspects him)
(267: K suspects him)
-283: suspects J; does not suspect I and K
(285: J suspects him less)
(287: K suspects him and J)
(294: J suspects him or R)
(325: K suspects him or J)
[Thank heavens we all have a different first letter in our usernames :) ]
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+1 for the effort. Will review.
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Adding to my views: I retract my suspicion of Jotheonah entirely. Given my belief 100% that Kuildeous is playing a very smart Mafia game, there is no way Jotheonah would back me up so strongly as his partner. My accusations, while very well supported, challenged a belief held by almost everybody. There was NO NEED for him to support me if he was also Mafia.
If he ends up being lynched (and it appears 3 of you are leaning that way), I'll beg you to reconsider my points made during this day. Jotheonah is a townie. Kuildeous is Mafia.
Incidentally, and through nothing he has done recently himself, Voltgloss is now my top second suspect (and first among Morgrim voters). Robz is still close behind however.
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Volt: Quick note to you. Your being bumped up a spot is only because Jotheonah is now off my list. I feel bad; I said to make this list and that I would be nice, then immediately bump you up. I am very appreciative of the list.
I just didn't feel right with the way that seemed to play out. Didn't sit right with me, ya know?
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No worries, Galzria, I understood what you meant (that I went up in suspicion only because jotheonah dropped off your list).
The suspicion of Kuildeous led by Galzria and supported by jotheonah is an interesting one. I've tried to ask some questions to elicit further information about that suspicion and others' views on it. I now need to sleep on what I've read, and try to decide whether Day 2 is better explained by a "jotheonah is Mafia" theory or by a "Kuildeous is Mafia" theory.
FYI, I have work early tomorrow and may not get to post until mid-afternoon. I will try to post in the morning before work starts but cannot guarantee I'll be able to. It may be better if I don't post substantively until the afternoon anyway, to give more people a chance to review the roadmap first and make any edits/additions to it.
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Jotheonah is a townie. Kuildeous is Mafia.
Well, if I die, then my death at least will have meaning.
At the very least, make sure you vote for me for the right reason. Didn't like how I voted for bozzball early and ignored Mogrim? I can respect that. Refusing to believe that I misread a previous post? If you feel that is vote-worthy, especially when I explained the situation, then go ahead and cast your vote, since I cannot explain it any more clearly.
Or at least ask why I would make such a bold and easily falsifiable contradiction. Please do, as I'm curious as to the possible motives. I merely stated that Galzria was farther down on my list because I perceived an opening he did not exploit (primarily because that opening did not exist).
So, are you willing to vote against me because I am unable to accurately sift through several messages in a day? If so, make yourself heard.
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Vote Count 2-2
Not Voting (7) - Insomniac, Voltgloss, jotheonah, Robz888, bozzball, Kuildeous, Galzria
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline: Friday, June 1, 2012 6pm PDT
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Kuildeous, that's generally a cop-out. The primary reason for suspecting you has nothing to do with that series of events. While that was all very oddly stated and defended on your part, the suspicions are laid out fully in post #261 (it may have been lost in the wall of text) #264/#265, and #306.
Please don't mistake or misrepresent my reasons for being suspicious.
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Kuildeous, that's generally a cop-out. The primary reason for suspecting you has nothing to do with that series of events. While that was all very oddly stated and defended on your part, the suspicions are laid out fully in post #261 (it may have been lost in the wall of text) #264/#265, and #306.
Please don't mistake or misrepresent my reasons for being suspicious.
That's fair. I've explained myself about them, and I wouldn't hold it against you if you aren't convinced.
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Vote Count 2-2
Axxle (1) - Galzria :'(
Not Voting (6) - Insomniac, Voltgloss, jotheonah, Robz888, bozzball, Kuildeous
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline: Friday, June 1, 2012 6pm PDT
No, no! Didn't you see I changed my vote off you in post #323! You and I? We're good now! No more suspicions. But to be clear, UNVOTE: AXXLE. See? All good!
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Ah, I did see 323, but I just didn't pay attention to who said it since it was vote/unvote. Edited the votecount.
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Ah, I did see 323, but I just didn't pay attention to who said it since it was vote/unvote. Edited the votecount.
;D
I know, I'm making your job hell. :P
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Jotheonah is a townie. Kuildeous is Mafia.
Well, if I die, then my death at least will have meaning.
At the very least, make sure you vote for me for the right reason. Didn't like how I voted for bozzball early and ignored Mogrim? I can respect that. Refusing to believe that I misread a previous post? If you feel that is vote-worthy, especially when I explained the situation, then go ahead and cast your vote, since I cannot explain it any more clearly.
Or at least ask why I would make such a bold and easily falsifiable contradiction. Please do, as I'm curious as to the possible motives. I merely stated that Galzria was farther down on my list because I perceived an opening he did not exploit (primarily because that opening did not exist).
So, are you willing to vote against me because I am unable to accurately sift through several messages in a day? If so, make yourself heard.
This is interesting. I now realize I was thinking much too simply about Kuildeous, and totally exempting him from suspicion just because he didn't vote Morgrim (which is what I said earlier) now does seem stupid, upon further consideration. He didn't need to vote for Morgrim, and the mafia would probably rather let others do the lynching (or hedge their bets) if possible.
So, I reviewed Kuildeous's posts. There's not much to go on regarding him on Day 1. He mostly says over and over again that he doesn't know. That's fine. Not really suspicious or un-suspicious. But I realized this about him on Day 2. First, there is this post from him relatively early on in the Day 2 conversation.
My first suspicion was on Robz, as well. I had some weird vibes in rereading Voltgloss's posts, but Robz stands out more. I was toying with the idea that they were both Mafia, which kind of freaks me out to see that two other people are veering that way.
If those two are not Mafia, then the real Mafia are pretty damn good at manipulating us.
I didn't have a problem with this; Volt and I have had a lot of overlapping patterns of behavior, we are Morgrim voters, I understand this suspicion. No problems so far. But in the next post, I make my early Day 2 mafia predictions and I say this about Kuildeous:
Is it Kuildeous? No. I really don't think it is.
I see now why my reasoning was overly simplistic, but anyway, I'm his top suspect, but he's my bottom suspect. So, what now? A while later, I see this post from him:
I've been thinking about this over the weekend, and there is one other person who claims to have misgivings about the guilt of Morgrim while not really doing anything about it. His actions also do not reflect his words. That person is jotheonah. The big difference here is that he made his claim after Morgrim's fate was sealed. As I said, this could have been him misinterpreting the rules, or it could be an attempt to cover up his actions. Just like Voltgloss, he claims to be less than certain of Morgrim's guilt while keeping his vote squarely on him.
So, it's my belief that one of these two is Mafia.
I'm no longer the top suspect! Now, the argument he is making here about Jonah is one I was making, so it's possible he was simply persuaded by what I had to say. And later, I am fully dropped from his suspicions, along with Galzria. And I think this is what has made Galzria suspicious of him, anyway (is that right? I was incensed by Insomnaic and sort of missed this conversation when it first went 'round.)
So anyway, I'm glad that he suspected me, and then apparently my actions/arguments caused him to no longer suspect me. But a cynical observer might conclude he decided to shift his suspicions to others because I had been so firm (and again, probably mistaken) that I didn't suspect him. That's not automatically a mafia thing--it's nice when people say that don't suspect you, no matter who you are :) -- but it's potentially incriminating.
Anyway, that's not to say that I'm demanding Kuildeous's head now, it's just that since a couple other people seem to be putting him in the top suspect camp, I would see what original evidence I could find to merit that. Anyway, I don't know who his co-mafia would be. It's unlikely to be Jonah or Galz since they denounced him so vehemently. So Volt would be the obvious choice, but what about Insomniac? I'm somewhat afraid that the more strident and insistent personalities (me, Volt, J, and G) are being totally played by a weird pairing of less active and accusatory people.
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Anyway, that's not to say that I'm demanding Kuildeous's head now, it's just that since a couple other people seem to be putting him in the top suspect camp, I would see what original evidence I could find to merit that. Anyway, I don't know who his co-mafia would be. It's unlikely to be Jonah or Galz since they denounced him so vehemently. So Volt would be the obvious choice, but what about Insomniac? I'm somewhat afraid that the more strident and insistent personalities (me, Volt, J, and G) are being totally played by a weird pairing of less active and accusatory people.
What about Day 2 makes me seem inactive, I had a wedding to go to on Day 1 but I've been pretty involved on Day 2 here
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Anyway, that's not to say that I'm demanding Kuildeous's head now, it's just that since a couple other people seem to be putting him in the top suspect camp, I would see what original evidence I could find to merit that. Anyway, I don't know who his co-mafia would be. It's unlikely to be Jonah or Galz since they denounced him so vehemently. So Volt would be the obvious choice, but what about Insomniac? I'm somewhat afraid that the more strident and insistent personalities (me, Volt, J, and G) are being totally played by a weird pairing of less active and accusatory people.
What about Day 2 makes me seem inactive, I had a wedding to go to on Day 1 but I've been pretty involved on Day 2 here
Nothing about Day 2 makes you seem inactive. I was just considering both Days in total, you were less active and accusatory than many other people.
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Insomniac: I think he was directly comparing you to us 4 (J, R, V, myself), and saying you've been "less active" than us. That's true. We all talk way too much. I personally don't hold it against you. You've been contributing your share Day 2, even if it's not "as much".
Robz: Funny, I actually grew suspicious of Kuildeous during my first day 2 write up. I originally thought like everybody else, that there was nothing there and he was Mostly Harmless (+1 for HGTTG reference! Score!). As I was reviewing day 1 posts by him I kept coming up empty on anything useful to say. Then I stumbled on post #200. I had already noted on day 1 that the third vote to Bozzball bothered me, but I didn't put much thought into it, being more involved with Morgrim. Once I had the chance to go back and remember that, looking further into his late day 1 posts things started falling into place.
Note to everyone: While my conviction will stand strong here, I'm unlikely to make the vote until late into day 2. Having one Mafia picked out, I don't want to give his partner a chance at a desperate ploy (ie voting Kuildeous to clear his name). So I plan on shifting my focus right now to finding Mafiosi #2. I would rather ferret him out today and have a town win tomorrow, then quickly hit a Mafia now and be unsure tomorrow. I will 100% vote Kuildeous when the time comes. Just not yet.
That said, the only person 100% in the clear for me is Jotheonah. Also Bozzball at like, 95%.
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I don't have any strong feelings at this stage.
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Okay, here's what's confusing me with the Kuildeous situation.
As I understand it, Galzria's suspicions of Kuildeous were first based on Kuildeous's voting for Bozzball on Day 1, pushing the vote on Bozzball to 3. Kuildeous has defended by saying he felt Day 1's vote was essentially going to be random, and to prevent a deadlock tie resulting in "no lynch," he therefore voted on someone others were voting for. I also recall Galzria mentioning Kuildeous saying he wanted to push the vote to 3 to see if the mafia would jump on to push the vote to 5. (I can't find Kuildeous's post on this - just haven't had time to search for it.)
The thing is, at the time Kuildeous voted for Bozzball, there were 2 votes on Bozzball and 2 votes on Morgrim. My question then, for Kuildeous, is: when you voted Bozzball, why him and not Morgrim? Your stated reason seems to apply equally to either. Why one and not the other?
I also have a question for Robz. Robz has weighed in a couple times recently on Kuildeous, noting that - based on Kuildeous's Day 2 activities - he may have been hasty in dropping K from the suspects list. But I don't think Robz has said anything about K's Day 1 vote for Bozzball. Robz, do you find that suspicious like Galzria does? If not, what about Galzria's analysis do you disagree with?
Galzria, whatever responses Kuildeous and Robz give, I would also like the benefit of your reply.
I realize I haven't weighed in on my thoughts on Kuildeous yet. That's because I still have these questions (see above) and would like to see the answers before making up my mind.
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The thing is, at the time Kuildeous voted for Bozzball, there were 2 votes on Bozzball and 2 votes on Morgrim. My question then, for Kuildeous, is: when you voted Bozzball, why him and not Morgrim? Your stated reason seems to apply equally to either. Why one and not the other?
Actually, Bozzball had the most votes.
I cast the vote on Bozzball in message 165. At the time, Bozzball had two votes (Galzria in 138 and Morgrim in 143) while Morgrim only had one vote (Voltgloss in 114). Morgrim didn't get two votes until jotheonah confirmed his vote in 167 (it looks like he meant to vote for Morgrim in 149, but it didn't take until he clarified it in 167).
Once Bozzball got into the danger zone, Galzria backed off of Bozzball and switched to Morgrim in 170. Then Robz voted for Morgrim in 217, and you know the rest.
I'll put the above paragraphs in chronological order:
114: V votes for M
138: G votes for B
143: M votes for B
149: J tries to vote for M?
165: K votes for B
167: J votes for M
170: G unvotes for B
170: G votes for M
217: R votes for M
Despite my misgivings about J, I feel that his voting mistake is legitimate. I made a similar mistake in my voting, after all. But, when I placed the vote on Bozzball, Morgrim only had one vote on him. Would I have chosen differently if 149 was written differently? Maybe. I can only speak in hindsight; but it probably would have come down to a coin toss.
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Note to everyone: While my conviction will stand strong here, I'm unlikely to make the vote until late into day 2. Having one Mafia picked out, I don't want to give his partner a chance at a desperate ploy (ie voting Kuildeous to clear his name). So I plan on shifting my focus right now to finding Mafiosi #2. I would rather ferret him out today and have a town win tomorrow, then quickly hit a Mafia now and be unsure tomorrow. I will 100% vote Kuildeous when the time comes. Just not yet.
Is this wise? Say, just for the sake of argument, that Kuildeous is mafia. We decide, based on our conversation, to lynch Mr. X today instead and lynch K tomorrow. But we're wrong about Mr. X, he's innocent. The mafia kill another innocent in the night.
Galz, now, assuming you're still alive, you're in a group that's 2/5 mafia. You're convinced that K is mafia, but two other people in the group (the mafia) absolutely won't vote for him. So our win chances are based on you being absolutely sure that everyone else is absolutely sure K is mafia.
Say you do lynch K on Day 3. In the night, the mafia kill an innocent, and we get a Day 4 with three people, two town and a mafia, where there's no certainty which of the three is mafia.
Whereas, if we kill K today and leve unsure person for tomorrow, and K is mafia, we start the day with 1/5 mafia, a much worse situation for the mob. Even if we get it wrong, we get one more day to try to catch the same person we've been gunning for.
Bottom line, if you're sure someone's mafia, kill them today. Don't wait.
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Note to everyone: While my conviction will stand strong here, I'm unlikely to make the vote until late into day 2. Having one Mafia picked out, I don't want to give his partner a chance at a desperate ploy (ie voting Kuildeous to clear his name). So I plan on shifting my focus right now to finding Mafiosi #2. I would rather ferret him out today and have a town win tomorrow, then quickly hit a Mafia now and be unsure tomorrow. I will 100% vote Kuildeous when the time comes. Just not yet.
Is this wise? Say, just for the sake of argument, that Kuildeous is mafia. We decide, based on our conversation, to lynch Mr. X today instead and lynch K tomorrow. But we're wrong about Mr. X, he's innocent. The mafia kill another innocent in the night.
Galz, now, assuming you're still alive, you're in a group that's 2/5 mafia. You're convinced that K is mafia, but two other people in the group (the mafia) absolutely won't vote for him. So our win chances are based on you being absolutely sure that everyone else is absolutely sure K is mafia.
Say you do lynch K on Day 3. In the night, the mafia kill an innocent, and we get a Day 4 with three people, two town and a mafia, where there's no certainty which of the three is mafia.
Whereas, if we kill K today and leve unsure person for tomorrow, and K is mafia, we start the day with 1/5 mafia, a much worse situation for the mob. Even if we get it wrong, we get one more day to try to catch the same person we've been gunning for.
Bottom line, if you're sure someone's mafia, kill them today. Don't wait.
I'm not necessarily saying we wait to kill K until tomorrow, I'm saying we take every opportunity to find out who his partner is today. I would not be 100% OPPOSED to lynching somebody else if I was sure it was down to player X or player Y as Mafia #2, because that would give a clear path on who the 2 Mafia ARE: However, I would only want to go that path if I felt the entire rest of the town agreed with that outlook. Otherwise my vote will go to K today.
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Thanks for the clarification. A "X is mafia, but lets not kill them until tomorrow" suggestion sounds an awful lot like a partner save, though that doesn't gel at all with you and K's relationship up until now.
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Just out of curiosity, how certain is each person of my guilt? Please include a percentage from 1% to 100%. Feel free to include the same score for everyone else if you'd like, but I'm curious as to what people are thinking of me.
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Just out of curiosity, how certain is each person of my guilt? Please include a percentage from 1% to 100%. Feel free to include the same score for everyone else if you'd like, but I'm curious as to what people are thinking of me.
A fair question, but I don't feel comfortable answering until after Robz (and then Galzria) have responded to my most recent request for information. I saw your response Kuildeous and appreciate it.
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The thing is, at the time Kuildeous voted for Bozzball, there were 2 votes on Bozzball and 2 votes on Morgrim. My question then, for Kuildeous, is: when you voted Bozzball, why him and not Morgrim? Your stated reason seems to apply equally to either. Why one and not the other?
Actually, Bozzball had the most votes.
I cast the vote on Bozzball in message 165. At the time, Bozzball had two votes (Galzria in 138 and Morgrim in 143) while Morgrim only had one vote (Voltgloss in 114). Morgrim didn't get two votes until jotheonah confirmed his vote in 167 (it looks like he meant to vote for Morgrim in 149, but it didn't take until he clarified it in 167).
Once Bozzball got into the danger zone, Galzria backed off of Bozzball and switched to Morgrim in 170. Then Robz voted for Morgrim in 217, and you know the rest.
I'll put the above paragraphs in chronological order:
114: V votes for M
138: G votes for B
143: M votes for B
149: J tries to vote for M?
165: K votes for B
167: J votes for M
170: G unvotes for B
170: G votes for M
217: R votes for M
Despite my misgivings about J, I feel that his voting mistake is legitimate. I made a similar mistake in my voting, after all. But, when I placed the vote on Bozzball, Morgrim only had one vote on him. Would I have chosen differently if 149 was written differently? Maybe. I can only speak in hindsight; but it probably would have come down to a coin toss.
For Voltgloss:
I take no issue with this timeline. K is 100% correct in how that played out. For the record though, here is Jotheonah's post #149 (the mis-vote):
Back a little later than I'd planned. You can thank Amtrak for that.
So I've been turning everything over in my head, and the only one who stands out to me as more than just suspicious is Morgrim. He seems TOO concerned about being lynched, frantic to defend himself. And he's said some things that don't make a lot of sense.
Also, I hate to say this, but if Morgrim is mafia #1 than Galzria emerges as a strong suspect for Mafia #2 - given that he originated the "wait til day 2" plan, which would be a good way to save your partner for a day while appearing to be joining in his condemnation.
Reread the whole thread (or skim it) with a Morgrim-Galzria mafia pair in mind and it's ... not impossible.
Tables, Kuildeous, I still have my eye on y'all, but I'm ready to put a vote on Morgrim
OT: Robz, I'm sure our being journalists can only help us. Asking leading questions, getting people to reveal too much information, stocks of the trade, amIright? I've been copy editing lately but I'm about to start an internship at a major magazine, trying to get back into the reporting game.
Between that time and his official vote in #167, there was NO official vote count, and during the time Jotheonah was awake and online (up until post #159) nobody pointed out the possible syntax error, so he could not have known his vote did not stand. Between posts #160 and #166 (mainly your post, Volt, #166) importance of syntax was explained, and in Jotheonah's VERY NEXT POST (#167) he corrected his mistake.
To argue that Morgrim was only at 1 vote is technically true when Kuildeous voted for Bozzball in post #163. Let me link it here:
I did actually vote for Insomniac, but it didn't take. I suspect because I omitted the colon, and I’m sure the moderator is searching for that (we do provide a lot of text to sift through).
My vote was pretty much random, but I then reread the rules and saw that a tie means that there is no lynch. So, if a no-lynch vote is bad for the town, then it would reason that a tie is just as harmful. So, I'm avoiding the random vote and jumping on the bandwagon. I will vote: bozzball and may the gods have mercy on us if we are wrong.
I would like to ask for a clarification. I know the Doctor and Jailkeeper can prevent a death. Does that include death from lynching?
I would also like to point out that Kuildeous says himself that he cast an earlier vote for Insomniac, but that it didn't take. In Jotheonah's case, his vote in #149 may or may not have been counted, but there is no doubt that the INTENT to cast was there.
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All that said, I will argue that it's just a matter of semantics, and really negligible to my case. My case focuses more on K's claim that his vote was "random". It was "random" and could have been a "coin-flip". But whatever his proclaimed methods, the facts remain as such:
I will vote: bozzball and may the gods have mercy on us if we are wrong.
My original plan for changing my vote to bozzball was to push the vote up to 3 to see if the Mafia players would jump on and push the vote to 5. Unfortunately, the vote is at 2, as Galzria changed his vote shortly after
it's quite possible that the Mafia players already suspected that delaying votes would be suspicious. They may even realize that concentrating their votes on one person would be suspicious also.
Although, another thought comes to mind. Since you can change your vote at any time, it's actually unlikely that the Mafia will wait to vote for someone. They can accomplish the same thing by changing their vote to tip someone over to majority vote.
Hell, in this post, I simultaneously condemned and exonerated Mogrim. Well, not really exonerate. I'll still vote for him if there's a compelling reason. People are eagerly awaiting Tables's analysis. I'll join in on that and see what he has to say.
Most of those came from post #200. He acknowledges that Mafia can change their vote at any time, says he'll sit and wait on Morgrim, but will cast his vote if needed, points out how Mafia putting all their eggs in one basket might be bad, and votes for Bozzball (away from general opinion at the time) because he WANTED to bandwagon up to 3. And that's IGNORING the fact that vote #2 on Bozzball was cast by none other than Morgrim, who was AT LEAST (and honestly MUCH MUCH more) suspicious and a likely Mafia AT THAT TIME.
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Just out of curiosity, how certain is each person of my guilt? Please include a percentage from 1% to 100%. Feel free to include the same score for everyone else if you'd like, but I'm curious as to what people are thinking of me.
Personally? 100%, but I think you guessed at that. The only reason I'm taking a moment to bother with a reply, is that I want to say that I understand that others don't share this view quite yet. I believe you are a very strong player, and playing a very good game. I've got respect for that. So while I think you're guilty, and will try to convince others, I give you props and a +1 for good play.
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I also have a question for Robz. Robz has weighed in a couple times recently on Kuildeous, noting that - based on Kuildeous's Day 2 activities - he may have been hasty in dropping K from the suspects list. But I don't think Robz has said anything about K's Day 1 vote for Bozzball. Robz, do you find that suspicious like Galzria does? If not, what about Galzria's analysis do you disagree with?
Galzria, whatever responses Kuildeous and Robz give, I would also like the benefit of your reply.
I realize I haven't weighed in on my thoughts on Kuildeous yet. That's because I still have these questions (see above) and would like to see the answers before making up my mind.
I looked back again to find K's Bozzball vote. It is a difficult one to find! All lowercase letters and at the very righthand corner of the paragraph. But that's neither here nor there.
I do NOT find it suspicious that K voted for Bozzball rather than Morgrim, now that we know Morgrim was innocent. I can't really fault him for not getting on the wrong bandwagon. Bozzball was also a semi-suspicious character at the time (although now I see that as Bozz's unfamiliarity with the game, rather than mafia behavior), so I understand the vote in theory. I didn't say this, but I remember thinking at the time that with Morgrim and Bozz getting votes, we were doing a great job--the two most suspicious people had the most votes.
Anyway, if K was mafia, I would have expected him to vote for Morgrim, rather than Bozz. This is because the movement was clearly against Morgrim, and a mafia should be paying good enough attention to realize that. So I would have expected a mafia to get on the bandwagon that would eventually succeed.
That was my original analysis, but now I see the advantages for the mafia to purposefully NOT back the person who is most likely to be lynched. And K's Day 1 explanations of his votes are weirder than the votes themselves. He's always saying he doesn't know anything, doesn't have any idea, but then votes Insomniac randomly, Bozz mostly randomly, and does a TON of hedging on Morgrim (his Reply #200 is just doublespeak).
So, I'm not sure I find him suspicious for the same reasons Galzria does. And I don't want to bandwagon him. But my initial thoughts about him are wrong, his Day 2 behavior has drawn attention to some things about his Day 1 behavior that now stand out and... I'm trying to think about more complicated mafia strategies. And he would be one person in place to be orchestrating a much more complicated mafia strategy. Especially because now it seems to me like at least one of the mafia is probably a non-Morgrim voter. And, well, there's only two of those people left.
Does that help, Volt? His Bozz vote--the timing of it, at least--isn't suspicious to me. But these other things are.
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Especially because now it seems to me like at least one of the mafia is probably a non-Morgrim voter. And, well, there's only two of those people left.
Actually three: Insomniac, bozzball, and I are all surviving non-Morgrim voters. Not saying that fact clears me, but I've been losing focus on Insomniac and bozzball, and I don't want the others to do the same.
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Especially because now it seems to me like at least one of the mafia is probably a non-Morgrim voter. And, well, there's only two of those people left.
Actually three: Insomniac, bozzball, and I are all surviving non-Morgrim voters. Not saying that fact clears me, but I've been losing focus on Insomniac and bozzball, and I don't want the others to do the same.
You are right. Sorry! I didn't count Bozzball there. I think the consensus is that he is not likely to be mafia.
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Agreed you shouldn't lose track of me but I am a townie.
Tonight I'm going to post an analysis based on why I think tables was lynched and what it could mean. I don't have time to do it right now. Work and all. But I think its an angle that we should look at and haven't explored enough, we've all thrown enough accusations around and defended ourselves but what about the mafia kill. Alot of people have written it off as unlucky. And well maybe it is, but what does the CHOICE of Tables say about the mafia.
Anyways thats what I'm going to get into later.
Also not sure what people think about Volts timeline but as I'm accused of lying should my rebuttal also be in the timeline?
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We've had quite a bit of a lively discussion. As I've said, I would prefer to get this wrapped up before I leave for Origins. As I've also said before, actions speak louder than words. Time to put my money where my mouth is.
I've been bandying about my leads. Each of you has hit my #1 spot at least once. Finally, in viewing the evidence of how Morgrim was voted upon in Day 1, I have to vote: Voltgloss. No random vote this time.
Again, I'm voting based on actual observable actions and not just speculation. Sure, the timing of Galzria's and Robz's votes can be suspect, but I cannot tell if they were coldly calculated or just happenstance. And Insomaniac and Bozzball have been fairly inscrutable, which makes them suspicious, but I could really only vote for them if I were certain that the other four do not contain both Mafia.
That leaves Voltgloss and jotheonah—two people whose actions did not jive with their words. They've defended themselves, and I acknowledge that. It just wasn't good enough for me. J is a newbie, so maybe he just made a mistake. That one fact is enough to place Voltgloss in the lead.
Now that I've broken the ice, let the hammers fall as they may. Sorry, Insomniac, but I was working on this post before you put in your request. Considering how broken my schedule is, I have to get my vote in before I miss my chance.
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A brief response to Robz at the request of Volt:
I fully understand that my accusations have seemed to come from left field. I think Kuildeous is playing a very strong Mafia game, and has had everyone pretty well fooled (including myself at one point). Given this, I understand the difficulty in seeing things in a new light. All I can ask at this time is that people really stop and think about what I've claimed. I stand by it 100%. While I will spend my remaining time Day 2 searching for Kuildeous's partner, I have no misgivings in saying VOTE: KUILDEOUS.
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Can everyone who has voted please take the time to read my Tables post later if they can I promise it will be posted tonight. I do not ask that you change your vote but consider some points I make. Kuildeous if you are having to leave for origins before 5:00PST I'll understand.
Also can we PLEASE wait to put ANYBODY to 2 votes until some more analysis has been given, I dont want a mafia hammer dropping this early on day 2. I think it would be devastating
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To Insomniac: I am on often. If it looks anything like the hammer will fall on Kuildeous before we open discussion on Tables (Your lead), I will retract my vote. I am all for garnering as much info as we can right now. I look forward to more insights on a topic yet to be discussed fully.
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Can everyone who has voted please take the time to read my Tables post later if they can I promise it will be posted tonight. I do not ask that you change your vote but consider some points I make. Kuildeous if you are having to leave for origins before 5:00PST I'll understand.
Also can we PLEASE wait to put ANYBODY to 2 votes until some more analysis has been given, I dont want a mafia hammer dropping this early on day 2. I think it would be devastating
I suspect Kuildeous much more than Volt, bu I'm not going to vote for anyone yet. I have some other suspicions--principally for Insomniac. My suspicion of J has lessened, and I would be interested to hear his thoughts at this point. I think he's in the anti-Kuildeous camp? I guess we should be a little wary of Galzria and J's closeness but... I know people have suspected me and Volt due to our closeness. And I actually think the mafia have to keep publicly distant from each other at least somewhat.
Anyway, I shared my thoughts on Kuildeous. I don't think I'm coming around on him for the same reasons, but I am coming around. Again, I must say one possibility is that the Morgrim Four--me, J, Volt, and Galz--are our own worst enemies, Kuildeous and possibly Insomniac are playing a subtler, more sophisticated mafia game. (This is counter-intuitive to me, as I started Day 2 thinking at least one and probably 2 mafia are among the Morgrim folk, but I was very wrong on Day 1 and I'm trying to think about things differently.)
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So there wasn't as much on Tables as I thought there was so I was able to compile this over a coffee break.
Why Tables?
Who did tables suspect:
1) Post 63: Votes: J. Suspected J and Morgrim for no lynch.
Post 162 Still suspects J but not as much as Morgrim
2) Morgrim but without much conviction
People Tables DIDN'T suspect:
1) Bozzball, had suspicions early but assumed town
2) Insomniac, Voltgloss, Galzria, Kuildeous
3) Tables (lol)
Notes:
1) Post 111: Starts to suspect Robz. Drops suspicion in 162
Who suspected Tables:
1) Morgrim (Probably not relevant)
2) Robz - Post 154, Post 215, - Both posts note Robz think him and Morgrim are the 2 mafia but seems to suggest that tables is IF Morgrim is
3) Jotheonah - Post 129 Post 156 (Probably more retalatory as Tables suspected him)
4) Voltgloss - Post 140
5) Galzria - Post 138
Now there are TWO main reasons I can see for the mafia to kill Tables
1) Single bluff - Tables did not suspect this person this person is killed as a throw off to make you think that the person
he did suspect is mafia
2) No bluff/Double bluff - Tables suspected this person and they kill to get off the radar or because you might suspect a bluff primarily
Now for a while on day 2 at least people suspect the mafia has been playing high level play, they are playing with some new players so I suspect the
single bluff is the most likely myself. Which unfortunately means I suspect J less but everyone else is still troublesome.
Did I miss anything if I did please feel free to quote and add or copy and add, but as with Voltgloss please bold what you add so that we can skim for it?
Maybe the Tables analysis wasn't as important as I thought but I still think it's worth discussing at least a little.
I look forward to hearing everyones thoughts on this
An aside not related to tables it IS possible according to the setup that there may or may not be another town power role. This is an important fact that
nobody has claimed to be them.
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Another point to ponder and the reason I made the list is, with 5 people voicing their suspicions of Tables and Morgrim out and saying he is mafia, why would the mafia lynch him 5 and a confirmed townie having suspicions of him seems enough to convince people to go morgrim.
THIS is a reason to consider it as the No bluff/double bluff play
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An aside not related to tables it IS possible according to the setup that there may or may not be another town power role. This is an important fact that
nobody has claimed to be them.
Nobody has claimed it because there has been no reason to claim it, I assume. They should only claim it if they know something or if they are about to be accidentally lynched.
I don't think Tables was killed based on who he suspected/didn't suspect. He didn't have any strong convictions, really. I thought he was subtly defending Morgrim as Morgrim's fellow mafia, but that was obviously wrong. I think he was killed for a combination of the following reasons: Since Morgrim was not guilty it made Tables more innocent in my view; he was a veteran player (I didn't know this but somebody, I think Kuildeous mentioned this) and possibly scary to the mafia; because Morgrim had implicated him killing him created a little confusion.
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I actually agree more with your second post thought, with this to add:
Tables was really taking his time, giving every indication that he was going to put together a strong analysis once he got caught up. Even though he pointed out that he had growing notes and suspicious odd behavior of Morgrim, we never got to see where that investigation would finally lead. With night falling and Morgrim's innocence revealed, Tables would've been in the best position to evaluate with a clear mind, and open book, as he had been building his notes the whole time.
Given this, the Mafia WOULD have reason to not want those notes and thoughts released. Maybe there were 5 suspecting him, and Morgrim's last point against Tables could certainly seem damning, especially given his innocence. So while having Tabled around would've been beneficial to the Mafia to make a target of, he was probably viewed as a bigger threat to allow his thoughts to go public.
Not to mention it is a very unlikely move. It throws the town into disarray over why (to that end it was successful). Did they have a cop read on him? Maybe. He was certainly careful and analytical in his posts. But I would hope all of us townies act that way.
Sadly, if that line of thought held true, J seems most likely suspect. I believe him to be innocent. Could Jotheonah-Kuildeous team be possible? Ehh... I doubt[/b] it... But maybe I shouldn't be so hasty to write it off.
Good post Insomniac. +1 for the effort.
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Bah. Bad underline usage .
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Lots of new stuff. 3 of the 4 Morgrim voters have now come out against Kuildeous. This means one of four things: (A) Galzria's "1 in, 1 out" theory was wrong, (B) The mafia are desperate enough to throw one of them under the bus to protect the other, (C) Voltgloss is mafia, or (D) Kuildeous is not mafia.
(B) strikes me as the very least likely of these, since the mafia is doing just fine in this game and the pressure is not so high on anyone as to make it necessary.
(C) is actually (B) now that K has voted for Volt.
So that leaves (A) and (D). Neither of which I love. (D) contradicts all the evidence that's been presented up until now.
(A) can be broken down into (a1) Both mafia voted for Morgrim and (a2) Both mafia DIDN'T vote for Morgrim. (a1) takes us back into Robz - Volt territory as far as I'm concerned. (a2) means that either bozzball or Insomniac is probably the second mafia.
I'm not actually building to anything here. But I'd be interested to hear everyone's take on this analysis.
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I think I'm the very least likely person to be Kuildeous's partner. I've targeted him several times, including on Day 1 with no pressure or incentive to do so.
Galzria's analysis of why Tables was targeted sits well with me - he was clearly about to give us a big juicy analysis and was a good, savvy town player.
As for the second town role, I'm playing as if we don't have one. It's very likely we don't, unfortunately, and we've seen no evidence. I'm going to be very wary of someone who makes a claim to one of the remaining roles. If they are out there and can give us an extra edge this night phase, great. But we're likely on our own.
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Lots of new stuff. 3 of the 4 Morgrim voters have now come out against Kuildeous. This means one of four things: (A) Galzria's "1 in, 1 out" theory was wrong, (B) The mafia are desperate enough to throw one of them under the bus to protect the other, (C) Voltgloss is mafia, or (D) Kuildeous is not mafia.
(B) strikes me as the very least likely of these, since the mafia is doing just fine in this game and the pressure is not so high on anyone as to make it necessary.
(C) is actually (B) now that K has voted for Volt.
So that leaves (A) and (D). Neither of which I love. (D) contradicts all the evidence that's been presented up until now.
(A) can be broken down into (a1) Both mafia voted for Morgrim and (a2) Both mafia DIDN'T vote for Morgrim. (a1) takes us back into Robz - Volt territory as far as I'm concerned. (a2) means that either bozzball or Insomniac is probably the second mafia.
I'm not actually building to anything here. But I'd be interested to hear everyone's take on this analysis.
Okay, here are some possible mafia pairings based on who people have been friendly toward:
K and V
J and G
R and V
K and Ins.
Ins. and Anybody
This is one reason my suspicion of Ins has grown. Since he doesn't have a strong record opposing/supporting certain players, he could be an accomplice to the most people. This is the same for Kuildeous, but unlike Insomniac, Kuildeous has been denounced by so many people that it eliminates the number of possible partners he has.
Which is not to say that the mafia won't denounce each other at all. And also, I didn't include Bozzball, but he's another one who hasn't taken sides very much, and could be with anyone. I just suspect him not very much.
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One more note. Contrary to my analysis above, (C) doesn't necessarily equal (B). Since Kuildeous isn't in a position to sway a lot of other people's support right now, his vote for Voltgloss if Volt is the other mafia is somewhat safe, and would go a long way towards increasing Voltgloss's safety next round if Kuildeous is lynched. The person K voted for would be somewhat in the clear...
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Especially because now it seems to me like at least one of the mafia is probably a non-Morgrim voter. And, well, there's only two of those people left.
Actually three: Insomniac, bozzball, and I are all surviving non-Morgrim voters. Not saying that fact clears me, but I've been losing focus on Insomniac and bozzball, and I don't want the others to do the same.
You are right. Sorry! I didn't count Bozzball there. I think the consensus is that he is not likely to be mafia.
Are we writing him off too soon? He was suspicious Day 1, has (almost) completely disappeared Day 2, and for his troubles he's gotten ... completely exonerated? That seems odd.
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Bozzball, I would like to hear some analysis, response, thoughts, SOMETHING from you.
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Especially because now it seems to me like at least one of the mafia is probably a non-Morgrim voter. And, well, there's only two of those people left.
Actually three: Insomniac, bozzball, and I are all surviving non-Morgrim voters. Not saying that fact clears me, but I've been losing focus on Insomniac and bozzball, and I don't want the others to do the same.
You are right. Sorry! I didn't count Bozzball there. I think the consensus is that he is not likely to be mafia.
Are we writing him off too soon? He was suspicious Day 1, has (almost) completely disappeared Day 2, and for his troubles he's gotten ... completely exonerated? That seems odd.
I was partially writing him off because of his quitting the game attitude, his absence during the night that somebody mentioned... but you're right. He shouldn't be written off. But nodoby else seems suspicious of him.
I've had an idea, but I need a little bit to formulate it... I am going rank by suspicion and by likely pairings and do a cross-analysis.... Give me a bit.
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(D) [Kuildeous is not mafia] contradicts all the evidence that's been presented up until now.
What evidence is that? You are still speculating on the timing and reasoning of the vote for bozzball. I've yet to see any evidence that would make even a paranoid git like me cast a vote for someone.
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Robz I don't think you and V are both mafia, I think one of you is.
Also to be clear are you suggesting I'm mafia simply because I don't throw accusations around without a strong backing? Didn't YOU say wide spread suspicion is bad for the town and good for the mafia? Cuz it seems to me you throw accusations around that spread suspicion while I keep mine concentrated and with reason.
And as for my record of strong opposition? I've VERY strongly gone after you today. I've also gone after Volts with some pretty strong conviction as I'm still convinced one of you is mafia.
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Well, here's my thoughts (and I hate posting this before Voltgloss has had a chance to catch up (and maybe incriminate himself?), but I don't want things to go further without voicing these concerns):
First off, I'm still 100% confident of my vote and feelings on Kuildeous. It would take a MASSIVE counter-argument to change that, and I feel I've done a thorough job reading through everything here. I don't think at this time anything exists in the current evidence to contradict my beliefs. He is Mafia.
Next: On to the thought that Jotheonah might actually be his partner. Frightening. Jotheonah has come out on day two pretty friendly towards me, and when I did my Day 1 analysis with him high up on my suspects list, he recoiled quite a bit, but kept pushing to make me believe his case. If he were Mafia, knowing my innocence, and knowing that others were turning their eyes towards him (before I was able to post), I could completely understand him trying to make an ally in the townies. If he could get somebody to support him, that would put 3 people unwilling to vote him (Himself, his partner, and his townie ally). That would mean ALL FOUR others would have to knock him off - possible, but unlikely.
Following that line of thought, if we assume I'm correct and the other Mafia IS Kuildeous, we must recognize that during the night they would have known that suspicion on day 2 was much more likely to go J's way than to go K's way. Kuildeous looked safe to virtually everybody. Given my case against K, the two most vocal people have been... Kuildeous (well, of course), and Jotheonah. If this pairing is true, I imagine they would've been caught WAY off guard by my accusations. Enough to force their hand? Jotheonah's backing of my case against K so quickly certainly moved him into a "friend" camp for me. Did he think he could clear his name simply by making that move, trusting that I wouldn't get enough other support to really put Kuildeous at risk? It certainly is a possibility, and one I profess to have not considered until recently.
I've said that I plan on spending my time trying to find Mafia #2, because I'm certain of Mafia #1. With the movement for Kuildeous gaining some ground, I would like to hear Jotheonah's thoughts about the above.
I still think you're a townie. Absolutely. But I have to make sure. The above would take an INCREDIBLY sophisticated level of play, and I would LIKE to believe it isn't the case. But I would hardly be doing the town ANY favors not to explore it.
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Pre-Post Edit:
I've just read your newest point, and it doesn't do a lot to address the above issues (then again, it wasn't meant to), but you did bring up some other points I would like to explore.
You're thought about (C). I don't believe this to be the case AT ALL. There is plenty of suspicion for Volt from around town at the moment that Kuildeous could be trying to move pressure of of himself by throwing his partner under. If Volt comes up Mafia, it'll be hard to make a serious case against Kuildeous in Day 3. That means he gets a Night kill, Day 3 lynch, and Night 3 kill. That's 3 of the remaining 5 innocent towns people. That leaves things down to 2 Town, 1 Mafia. Not at all a bad play.
If Volt gets lynched and comes up townie, then it means with almost certainty Kuildeous is lynched day 3. But the Mafia will get a Day 2 lynch, Night 2 lynch, and Night 3 lynch: leaving them at 2 Town, 1 Mafia again.
He has nothing to lose by voting for Volt, regardless of Volt's allegiance.
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In regards to (A), I still strongly believe this to be true. (At least, I'm *really* hoping it is, or we SERIOUSLY out-played ourselves). I don't think Bozz is Mafia. Maybe I should? His lack of involvement might make me more suspicious if he hasn't claimed to be new from day one, and really played like he just wasn't sure what to do. Good Mafia play? Perhaps. But I think like everybody here, I'm willing to risk looking like a complete tool/fool and give him the benefit of the doubt.
Could there be an Insomniac-Kuildeous pairing? It's... possible. But I think there's just to much evidence out against the Morgrim voters to really consider that. I would HATE to be wrong, but I won't deny it's possible.
Lastly, could both be Morgrim voters? No. Kuildeous is Mafia. ;) In all seriousness, and as I've pointed out before, it would be TERRIBLE play for both Mafia to get involved with Morgrim given how strongly the river was flowing in that direction already. There simply wasn't any need. Could that all be a big double bluff (meaning both WERE involved)? Possibly. Still feels VERY sloppy to me, and despite Robz888 and Voltgloss seeming to get along so well, I just don't see that pairing. Wouldn't put it past them (nor possibly a Jotheonah-Voltgloss, or Jotheonah-Robz set), but I am pretty strongly convinced of Kuildeous's guilt, and unless something much more damning comes out to match any of those 3 pairs, I'm not at all worried about that setup.
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So, to sum up my pre-post edit: Despite my strong conviction of Kuildeous to be Mafia, I wouldn't use his casting of a vote on Volt to read Volt=Town at ALL. Nor am I any less suspicious of Robz. I guess that's the main point there.
Also, and again, I would like to hear some more from you Jotheonah, as I would hate to feel used as an "in" to the townie camp by a Mafia.
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There has been a lot of talk before I could get that posted: Everything said in that post refers to Jotheonah's post #399 and before. Will try to catch back up (again) now.
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I'm now certain enough to cast a vote.
1) The person I'm voting for has tried to spread suspicion to everyone except bozzball.
2) This person has also said that wide spread suspicion is bad for the town, but has only helped to heighten it.
RE: Bozzball, Bozzballs 'quit' has removed MUCH attention from him and seems like it would be a VERY good way for mafia to draw fire away from him and could have been advised of that move by a smart player
For these reasons I STRONGLY believe that Robz and Bozzball are the mafia.
Vote: Robz888
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I'm now certain enough to cast a vote.
1) The person I'm voting for has tried to spread suspicion to everyone except bozzball.
2) This person has also said that wide spread suspicion is bad for the town, but has only helped to heighten it.
RE: Bozzball, Bozzballs 'quit' has removed MUCH attention from him and seems like it would be a VERY good way for mafia to draw fire away from him and could have been advised of that move by a smart player
For these reasons I STRONGLY believe that Robz and Bozzball are the mafia.
Vote: Robz888
I should note these are in addition to reasons I have previously stated
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Wow. A lot of activity in a short span of time. I guess that's to be expected when voting starts.
As mentioned way way earlier in the thread when we were discussing timezones and availability, my downtime is usually around the 5:00/6:00 to 10:00 range (EDT). I will try to keep this window open to refresh and keep abreast of recent posts, but I doubt I'll be able to finish my substantive post until the 10:00-11:00 EDT range. However, I should definitely have it up by then.
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I'm now certain enough to cast a vote.
1) The person I'm voting for has tried to spread suspicion to everyone except bozzball.
2) This person has also said that wide spread suspicion is bad for the town, but has only helped to heighten it.
RE: Bozzball, Bozzballs 'quit' has removed MUCH attention from him and seems like it would be a VERY good way for mafia to draw fire away from him and could have been advised of that move by a smart player
For these reasons I STRONGLY believe that Robz and Bozzball are the mafia.
Vote: Robz888
Hmm... could you put together a stronger case (with support) of Robz being particularly unfocused on Day 2? I guess I'm just not really seeing it. He's responded when asked questions, and posted his own analysis (which to be fair, DID point fingers everywhere a little bit... but so did mine. So did almost everybody's).
I also find holding his case for Bozzball against him really unfair, since if you go back, we ALL have made similar points.
I'm not saying he isn't Mafia. He is in my top 3. But I would rather see a case made against him for the content of what he says directly. And I don't really see the case that you're making.
Please post more if you have conviction, and tell us why we should follow your lead. If 3 people suddenly made a move to Robz, and he were lynched in the next 20 posts, how would you feel? This is a key question I've been asking myself.
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I will put together a day 1 and day 2 case later tonight around 5pm PDT.
if he were lynched in the next 20 posts, i would feel like we definitely bagged a mafia for the town today and it would not bother me at all.
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Err, Galz, what more do you want to hear from me?
I have spent much more of Day 2 then I would like to defending myself - not because I am guilty, but because there was a lot of suspicion my way. So I've been as transparent as possible about the reasons for the actions people have cited as suspicious. I'm happy that in doing so I've been able to convince you and others that I'm town. Let's not lose that ground. Absent some hard evidence that I'm the mafia, why would you suspect it now, really?
Anyway, go back and read my Day 1 posts. I will reiterate. I have NEVER been friendly toward Kuildeous. I posted suspicious posts about him not once, but several times during day 1, though they never amounted to anything. For us to be a team and me to be repeatedly risking the town turning the lynch mob on him would be really dumb.
I didn't suddenly turn on K when you targeted him. I agreed with your analysis when and only when you asked me specifically to weigh in on it, and I pointed out that it gelled with the things I had already voiced suspicion about on Day 1 - his assertion that the votes are random, his light touch on serious posting, etc.
And I haven't lifted (fully) my suspicions of my original Day 2 suspects: Robz and Volt. It's just that neither of them has made me go "Yeah, he's absolutely mafia" especially because I agree that if one of them is, the other isn't, and I can't say with conviction which one, whereas, Kuildeous has no real competition among the non Morgrim voters. Except, of course for Bozzball.
By the way, Insomniac. Why do you find Robz more likely to be mafia than Voltgloss?
So, Galzria, I hope that addresses it for you. I think you'll find that I was more down on K on Day 1 than his partner would have any reason to be when there were plenty of other easy targets for a mafioso.
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Err, Galz, what more do you want to hear from me?
I have spent much more of Day 2 then I would like to defending myself - not because I am guilty, but because there was a lot of suspicion my way. So I've been as transparent as possible about the reasons for the actions people have cited as suspicious. I'm happy that in doing so I've been able to convince you and others that I'm town. Let's not lose that ground. Absent some hard evidence that I'm the mafia, why would you suspect it now, really?
Anyway, go back and read my Day 1 posts. I will reiterate. I have NEVER been friendly toward Kuildeous. I posted suspicious posts about him not once, but several times during day 1, though they never amounted to anything. For us to be a team and me to be repeatedly risking the town turning the lynch mob on him would be really dumb.
I didn't suddenly turn on K when you targeted him. I agreed with your analysis when and only when you asked me specifically to weigh in on it, and I pointed out that it gelled with the things I had already voiced suspicion about on Day 1 - his assertion that the votes are random, his light touch on serious posting, etc.
And I haven't lifted (fully) my suspicions of my original Day 2 suspects: Robz and Volt. It's just that neither of them has made me go "Yeah, he's absolutely mafia" especially because I agree that if one of them is, the other isn't, and I can't say with conviction which one, whereas, Kuildeous has no real competition among the non Morgrim voters. Except, of course for Bozzball.
By the way, Insomniac. Why do you find Robz more likely to be mafia than Voltgloss?
So, Galzria, I hope that addresses it for you. I think you'll find that I was more down on K on Day 1 than his partner would have any reason to be when there were plenty of other easy targets for a mafioso.
In short, less finger pointing, less mafia-like play on day 2.
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You're thought about (C). I don't believe this to be the case AT ALL. There is plenty of suspicion for Volt from around town at the moment that Kuildeous could be trying to move pressure of of himself by throwing his partner under. If Volt comes up Mafia, it'll be hard to make a serious case against Kuildeous in Day 3. That means he gets a Night kill, Day 3 lynch, and Night 3 kill. That's 3 of the remaining 5 innocent towns people. That leaves things down to 2 Town, 1 Mafia. Not at all a bad play.
I think if you'll read my addendum to my post, you'll find we both agree. After I posted I noticed the same flaw in my analysis. Here it is so you don't have to dig:
One more note. Contrary to my analysis above, (C) doesn't necessarily equal (B). Since Kuildeous isn't in a position to sway a lot of other people's support right now, his vote for Voltgloss if Volt is the other mafia is somewhat safe, and would go a long way towards increasing Voltgloss's safety next round if Kuildeous is lynched. The person K voted for would be somewhat in the clear...
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(D) [Kuildeous is not mafia] contradicts all the evidence that's been presented up until now.
What evidence is that? You are still speculating on the timing and reasoning of the vote for bozzball. I've yet to see any evidence that would make even a paranoid git like me cast a vote for someone.
Also, while you are presenting the evidence that you feel you have against me, would you kindly indulge me and state in percentage points just how certain you are that I am Mafia? This actually goes for everybody, in case my earlier request was lost (I saw your response, V, thanks).
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Err, Galz, what more do you want to hear from me?
I have spent much more of Day 2 then I would like to defending myself - not because I am guilty, but because there was a lot of suspicion my way. So I've been as transparent as possible about the reasons for the actions people have cited as suspicious. I'm happy that in doing so I've been able to convince you and others that I'm town. Let's not lose that ground. Absent some hard evidence that I'm the mafia, why would you suspect it now, really?
Anyway, go back and read my Day 1 posts. I will reiterate. I have NEVER been friendly toward Kuildeous. I posted suspicious posts about him not once, but several times during day 1, though they never amounted to anything. For us to be a team and me to be repeatedly risking the town turning the lynch mob on him would be really dumb.
I didn't suddenly turn on K when you targeted him. I agreed with your analysis when and only when you asked me specifically to weigh in on it, and I pointed out that it gelled with the things I had already voiced suspicion about on Day 1 - his assertion that the votes are random, his light touch on serious posting, etc.
And I haven't lifted (fully) my suspicions of my original Day 2 suspects: Robz and Volt. It's just that neither of them has made me go "Yeah, he's absolutely mafia" especially because I agree that if one of them is, the other isn't, and I can't say with conviction which one, whereas, Kuildeous has no real competition among the non Morgrim voters. Except, of course for Bozzball.
By the way, Insomniac. Why do you find Robz more likely to be mafia than Voltgloss?
So, Galzria, I hope that addresses it for you. I think you'll find that I was more down on K on Day 1 than his partner would have any reason to be when there were plenty of other easy targets for a mafioso.
Just due diligence, no worries. Taking notes on everybody. You just came up with the Tables talk, and as I hadn't put much thought there, I wanted to flesh out ideas before I lost them.
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(D) [Kuildeous is not mafia] contradicts all the evidence that's been presented up until now.
What evidence is that? You are still speculating on the timing and reasoning of the vote for bozzball. I've yet to see any evidence that would make even a paranoid git like me cast a vote for someone.
Also, while you are presenting the evidence that you feel you have against me, would you kindly indulge me and state in percentage points just how certain you are that I am Mafia? This actually goes for everybody, in case my earlier request was lost (I saw your response, V, thanks).
No problem. What's your percentage certainty that I'm Mafia?
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(D) [Kuildeous is not mafia] contradicts all the evidence that's been presented up until now.
What evidence is that? You are still speculating on the timing and reasoning of the vote for bozzball. I've yet to see any evidence that would make even a paranoid git like me cast a vote for someone.
Also, while you are presenting the evidence that you feel you have against me, would you kindly indulge me and state in percentage points just how certain you are that I am Mafia? This actually goes for everybody, in case my earlier request was lost (I saw your response, V, thanks).
No problem. What's your percentage certainty that I'm Mafia?
Just curious, I see your post Volt saying you would wait until after I responded to Kuildeous (I did in the very next post after yours) and after Robz posted and I responded to him (both have happened). Did I miss a post from you after that then? Did you post your thoughts on Kuildeous, or is that the "full post later tonight" you were talking about?
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K, I'm not sure what's to gain from your percentage points angle. It seems a very odd request. I can picture you thinking "If the mean percentage is 85 or more, I'll fake a role claim" or something similarly silly. Isn't it enough that we ARE suspicious of you?
I don't have time right now to go through with quotes, but I'll give you the quick rundown of why I suspect you.
Galzria, RObz, and others have advanced a theory that at least one non-Morgrim voter is mafia. Of the three, you are the one who has been the most present. Yet on Day 1 you hedged and hedged, voting with the group when possible and then battering us with reasons why the voting was random and meaningless. This is a pattern that contributes to the lynching of an innocent while minimizing the amount of blame that can stick to you. In post 200, you appeared to lay the groundwork for a Morgrim vote if you needed to, but hedged your bets in case you didn't. On Day 2 you've stayed similarly aloof.
Actually, now that I look back I'm a little unsure why Galzria is so dead sure you're mafia. G, do you think you could lay it out one more time, nice and pretty-like? For all our pre-voting benefit?
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Just curious, I see your post Volt saying you would wait until after I responded to Kuildeous (I did in the very next post after yours) and after Robz posted and I responded to him (both have happened). Did I miss a post from you after that then? Did you post your thoughts on Kuildeous, or is that the "full post later tonight" you were talking about?
Thoughts on Kuildeous (and others) will be in the "full post later tonight."
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Just curious, I see your post Volt saying you would wait until after I responded to Kuildeous (I did in the very next post after yours) and after Robz posted and I responded to him (both have happened). Did I miss a post from you after that then? Did you post your thoughts on Kuildeous, or is that the "full post later tonight" you were talking about?
Thoughts on Kuildeous (and others) will be in the "full post later tonight."
Thank you. A lot to sift through, and didn't want to miss anything.
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(D) [Kuildeous is not mafia] contradicts all the evidence that's been presented up until now.
What evidence is that? You are still speculating on the timing and reasoning of the vote for bozzball. I've yet to see any evidence that would make even a paranoid git like me cast a vote for someone.
Also, while you are presenting the evidence that you feel you have against me, would you kindly indulge me and state in percentage points just how certain you are that I am Mafia? This actually goes for everybody, in case my earlier request was lost (I saw your response, V, thanks).
No problem. What's your percentage certainty that I'm Mafia?
Just curious, I see your post Volt saying you would wait until after I responded to Kuildeous (I did in the very next post after yours) and after Robz posted and I responded to him (both have happened). Did I miss a post from you after that then? Did you post your thoughts on Kuildeous, or is that the "full post later tonight" you were talking about?
You also said you would respond to my post defending myself ages ago and never did. You just sort of dropped your hitherto adamant case against me just as the public opinion started to shift away from me. I'll be interested to read your longer post.
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K, I'm not sure what's to gain from your percentage points angle. It seems a very odd request. I can picture you thinking "If the mean percentage is 85 or more, I'll fake a role claim" or something similarly silly. Isn't it enough that we ARE suspicious of you?
I don't have time right now to go through with quotes, but I'll give you the quick rundown of why I suspect you.
Galzria, RObz, and others have advanced a theory that at least one non-Morgrim voter is mafia. Of the three, you are the one who has been the most present. Yet on Day 1 you hedged and hedged, voting with the group when possible and then battering us with reasons why the voting was random and meaningless. This is a pattern that contributes to the lynching of an innocent while minimizing the amount of blame that can stick to you. In post 200, you appeared to lay the groundwork for a Morgrim vote if you needed to, but hedged your bets in case you didn't. On Day 2 you've stayed similarly aloof.
Actually, now that I look back I'm a little unsure why Galzria is so dead sure you're mafia. G, do you think you could lay it out one more time, nice and pretty-like? For all our pre-voting benefit?
Oy. :-\ Of course I don't mind. At least by this point I've got most of the post numbers memorized. :'( That's really pretty sad come to think of it...
Give me a few. I'll try my best to get this done ASAP, but if I don't finish within 30 minutes, I won't be able to for the next 6 hours or so (Gotta coach, so I'll be going dark).
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Alright, a complete post on Kuildeous:
Prior to post #261, I didn't really have any suspicion of him. That post was my first real, complete analysis of the events of Day 1. I was true to my word that I was going to look at each and every person and their actions and see what I could draw out of them.
Everything was going about as I expected it to (I did have a decent feeling regarding most people going into the post), until I came to Kuildeous. I just couldn't find much on him. The point I had originally laid out in my mind to make about him is as follows:
I have preached against erratic playstyle since post #72. I believe that confusion and unfounded accusations lead to a Mafia advantage. The more they can spread out suspicion, the harder it will be to make a solid, concrete case against them, and the easier it will be for them to either A) hold out for a no-lynch situation, or B) get people to bandwagon.
The worst I could say about him was that, like Bozzball, he seemed to believe that there was going to be no real information worth gathering first round and that the vote would be random. Sure enough, this theory is backed up by posts #131, #144, and #177 (amongst many more). But then I stumbled onto post #165, where I remembered he cast his vote for Bozzball:
My vote was pretty much random, but I then reread the rules and saw that a tie means that there is no lynch. So, if a no-lynch vote is bad for the town, then it would reason that a tie is just as harmful. So, I'm avoiding the random vote and jumping on the bandwagon. I will vote: bozzball and may the gods have mercy on us if we are wrong.
This alone was hardly incriminating. Yet as I had just reread and saw Morgrim's vote for Bozzball not terribly long before (#143 to be exact), and there was no doubt that suspicion was moving Morgrim's way, it DID stand out to me that he would choose to side with Morgrim. I personally thought the vote count stood at Morgrim: 2, Bozzball: 2 when he cast his vote. I see now that technically Jotheonah had not cast his vote in post #149 (I point this out in my analysis of you in post #261), so Morgrim only officially had 1. This really has no bearing on my case against Kuildeous however.
As I continued to skim through Day 1 looking for posts by Kuildeous, I came to post #200, THE post that changed everything. As I had already noted in my analysis of ME during post #261,
My second vote cast went to Bozzball, and I stand by my suspicions of him (fully laid out in post #151). As I noted, I would NOT put him in a position to be killed yet, as my suspicions are not "You are Mafia" suspicions but are "You are acting oddly" suspicions. Thus, when his vote tally went up to 3 by Kuildeous in post #165, I backed down as soon as I could (post #170). This line of thought was laid out by me in post #202.
I was VERY uncomfortable with the 3rd vote being cast on Bozzball. I refer to post #202, but that post was really just a response to post #200.
Like I said, when I came across post #200 while evaluating Kuildeous, everything changed. I was already on guard for possible Mafia play from everybody, and this post, in it's entirety, really set off red flags:
Not voting is not suspicious at this stage.
I disagree. I would think that a true member of the Mafia would be interested in withholding his vote until he can condemn an innocent person. This does not mean that I hold Robz and Insomniac in suspicion based on their lack of votes. I just don't think there's any behavior in here that completely allays suspicion.
My original plan for changing my vote to bozzball was to push the vote up to 3 to see if the Mafia players would jump on and push the vote to 5. Unfortunately, the vote is at 2, as Galzria changed his vote shortly after
So now Morgim has 3 votes. I've yet to see 2 players jump in and push it to5. I'm making a pretty big assumption that the Mafia players would be interested in placing their 2 votes on someone to push the number to 5. I say that, but it's quite possible that the Mafia players already suspected that delaying votes would be suspicious. They may even realize that concentrating their votes on one person would be suspicious also.
So, if I go with the idea that Mafia players would wait to place a vote, then the fact that Mogrim doesn't have a majority yet casts him in the role of Mafia. Paradoxically, Mogrim voted for bozzball early, so if I vote for Mogrim on that assumption, then I have to recognize that my assumption is faulty, since Mogrim contradicted it.
Although, another thought comes to mind. Since you can change your vote at any time, it's actually unlikely that the Mafia will wait to vote for someone. They can accomplish the same thing by changing their vote to tip someone over to majority vote.
There's a reason I don't like to reveal my thought process. To be fair, whoever is in the Mafia probably already thought of these things already. I read a little in the first game and saw the claim that a talking town is more likely to be efficient in lynching. I still kind of question that, but I guess I'll leave my experiments at home and speak more freely. I still don't like saying what I think where the Mafia players can hear. Just because they are more logical gamers doesn't mean they'll think of everything.
After all that, I'm still not convinced in a particular direction.
So if you really believe we have no more information than we did when we started, well, you're doing it wrong.
I don't dispute that there is more information I question the amount of useful information. In fact, I'd say that a lot of these posts are actually harmful to the town, which should be expected when you have two people working in tandem to undermine us.
Hell, in this post, I simultaneously condemned and exonerated Mogrim. Well, not really exonerate. I'll still vote for him if there's a compelling reason. People are eagerly awaiting Tables's analysis. I'll join in on that and see what he has to say.
Let me break down for you my line of thought: (This is all laid out in posts #261, #264/#265, and #306. None of this is "new" or changed)
My original plan for changing my vote to bozzball was to push the vote up to 3 to see if the Mafia players would jump on and push the vote to 5. Unfortunately, the vote is at 2, as Galzria changed his vote shortly after
This appears, as stated before, VERY DANGEROUS to me. Why, why, why, WHY put a possibly innocent man, with VERY little case against him, in danger of being hammered out by the Mafia? Yes, I unvoted as QUICKLY as I could. This seemed to me, even at that time, VERY stupid. I was the ONLY person to make a case against Bozzball, and the second person to vote was... MORGRIM! Who already appeared guilty by the time this was happening. At least, I'll argue he was a whole lot MORE suspect than Bozzball. Add in the only "real" case Kuildeous ever made to vote Bozzball was that he was "jumping on the bandwagon." (#165). At this point I'm looking for a real reason for his vote.
Staying in post #200:
So now Morgim has 3 votes. I've yet to see 2 players jump in and push it to5. I'm making a pretty big assumption that the Mafia players would be interested in placing their 2 votes on someone to push the number to 5. I say that, but it's quite possible that the Mafia players already suspected that delaying votes would be suspicious. They may even realize that concentrating their votes on one person would be suspicious also.
Seemed innocent when he said it, but with things stacking against him in my review, he first makes the case that the votes would go together, then follows it up with a reason they should be split. He shows a deeper understanding of good Mafia play (which I maintain is a 1-in, 1-out strategy). Given that around this time the whole TINAS/Theory case had been going on, I could see why he might want to split the Mafia vote if he IS one. If Morgrim got off the hook (through Tables analysis, or a role-claim, or whatever), it would be really nice to have a back-up fall man. And since Morgrim being "set-free" from his persecution would likely mean a belief he was innocent, Morgrim's vote on Bozzball would seem a good place to go. Adding his voice to Morgrim's didn't hurt him here, IF THEY WERE PARTNERS OR NOT.
Lastly, this:
Although, another thought comes to mind. Since you can change your vote at any time, it's actually unlikely that the Mafia will wait to vote for someone. They can accomplish the same thing by changing their vote to tip someone over to majority vote.
Followed by this:
Hell, in this post, I simultaneously condemned and exonerated Mogrim. Well, not really exonerate. I'll still vote for him if there's a compelling reason. People are eagerly awaiting Tables's analysis. I'll join in on that and see what he has to say.
Sealed the deal for me. He has now, all in one post, set himself outside of the Morgrim scuffle, so if Morgrim falls (looking VERY likely), he's not suspect. He's set himself alongside Morgrim by voting for Bozzball so that if Morgrim DOESN'T fall, he has a backup innocent lined up (Yes, I believe Bozzball to be innocent now). This works at the time both if Morgrim DOES or DOES NOT turn out to be Mafia. He's also hedged his bets by saying that he doesn't want to get involved in the Morgrim case, but WILL IF HE HAS TO. That just read to me: If my vote is needed as #5, I'll cast it. He of course knew that Morgrim was innocent, but again didn't want to get involved.
He was never given the chance to HAVE to make that move, as Morgrim took himself out of the picture.
But after reviewing everything, and watching the level of play this game, and my firm belief that there is 1 Mafia in, and 1 Mafia out, everything here added up. It is VERY well played, but leaves me with VERY little doubt.
For me, Kuildeous is Mafia.
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Vote Count 2-3
Voltgloss (1) - Kuildeous
Kuildeous (1) - Galzria
Robz888 (1) - Insomniac
Not Voting (4) - Voltgloss, jotheonah, Robz888, bozzball
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline: Friday, June 1, 2012 6pm PDT
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What it would take for me to join you, Galzria, is a further analysis of Kuildeous's Day 2 behavior and how it is or isn't consistent with his suspicious Day 1 play.
I'm fully aware that it was I who said Day 1 actions are more important at this point, and I still believe that. But we shouldn't completely ignore today's actions. Show me how K has continued to show his guilt, and I'll join you in that vote.
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No problem. What's your percentage certainty that I'm Mafia?
I'm 90% certain of it.
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Going dark for 6 hours or so. To prevent hammer without discussion, UNVOTE
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I'm now certain enough to cast a vote.
1) The person I'm voting for has tried to spread suspicion to everyone except bozzball.
2) This person has also said that wide spread suspicion is bad for the town, but has only helped to heighten it.
RE: Bozzball, Bozzballs 'quit' has removed MUCH attention from him and seems like it would be a VERY good way for mafia to draw fire away from him and could have been advised of that move by a smart player
For these reasons I STRONGLY believe that Robz and Bozzball are the mafia.
Vote: Robz888
That me and Bozzball are the mafia is so absurd it's not even worth refuting. But I will refute it. Give me a minute. I have a lot of catchup to play. And I am working on a post about which people are paired with who relative to their suspicion level. And I don't want to say anything about the other Mafia thread, but ohhhh boy, go read it if you are curious. And I am drinking rum.
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As promised the Robz analysis. On my full reasons and what Robz has said to lead me to conclusions.
Why Robz?
Day 1:
1) Suspected Morgrim early post 91 but not so much as to draw attention
2) Pushed Morgrim HARD Posts: 91, 110, 126, 142, 191, 198
3) Was the 4th vote for Morgrim a standard location for Mafia, not too late not too early Post 217
4) Pointed Fingers in a few of places (More on why this is key in Day 2)
a) Morgrim: 91
b) Bozzball: 126, 154
c) Tables: 154
5) Post 154 Robs says "It would surprise me if the mafia would cast early votes for each other in the first round before too much of anybody's mind was made up on anything. It's too dangerous for them"
Note he has not yet voted himself.
6) Post 191: Says he will wait for Tables analysis to post. This turns out to be a lie
7) Removes suspicion of bozzball in post 209 (This is important because I believe bozzball to be his partner)
8) Post 222, shows uncertainty about ability to take back vote (More on this in day 2)
9) DIDN'T come out as guns blazing as he normally does, pointed fingers in only 3 places, allowing him to gain trust from town members.
This is something I point out in post 247 at the beginning of day 2. And is noted in this post as he pointed fingers at only 3 people.
Day 2:
1) Points fingers at everyone
a) Galzria: 254 (light)
b) Voltgloss: 254
c) Jotheonah: 254, 295
d) Insomniac: 254, 392, 400
e) Bozzball: 254
f) Kuildeous: 370, 392, 400
2) Post 302: Points out that wide spread suspicion is bad and that town members need conviction. He himself has not shown ANY convinction today
and has thrown more fingers around then anyone else
3) All day 2 posts up to 404 leave bozzball out ecept 254. Now we all did this, but its important as I think bozz is his partner
My thoughts outside of this
Bozzball is a likely partner to Robz, there has been a lot of talk and thought that the mafia are playing a very advanced game, we know Robz has
played before and is good at the game. Now think about the post that got people off of Bozzball. That is indeed a VERY good way to look innocent
basically everybody jumped off the bozzball train. This could have been advised to Bozzball during the night phase via PM between these 2.
For someone who claims conviction is important on day 1, and that wide spread suspicion is bad on Day 2. Hes lacked conviction all of day 2
and has done nothing for the town but help to raise the suspicions of everyone. This to me looks like mafia trying very hard to direct people
elsewhere and away from voting for him
Robz I see your post now, and perhaps you will see why its worth refuting I look forward to seeing your Robz/Bozz rebuttal
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I'm also interested to see the pairings you suspect are possible and your analysis of them as even though im convinced you're mafia it'd be interesting to see as I haven't been able to envision many pairings as viable even if I were to assume you weren't one of them
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Insomnia, that's your most solid post yet.
Robz, just don't let the rum do the posting ; ).
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Going dark for 6 hours or so. To prevent hammer without discussion, UNVOTE
Good man.
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One last thought before I go out for a bit.
RE: Robz
Day 1:
Asked permission to vote for Morgrim. Once he recieved it from Volt he voted for Morgrim. This set up Volt as a potential fall guy for Robz.
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So I got my analysis done early and have an opportunity now to post. I don't see a reason to wait longer just for the sake of waiting, so, here we go.
Preface: When I stepped back from the, ah, "discussion" jotheonah and I had earlier in the thread, it was because I felt like it wasn't being productive for the town. It felt more like jotheonah and I were each trying to convince the other that they were Mafia. Which of course is a futile effort. jotheonah can't convince me to agree I'm Mafia any more than I convince him to agree he's Mafia. Were we just shouting at each other because of the other person's nerve to suggest we were suspicious? Maybe, I wasn't sure.
What did jump out at me was that the rest of the town hadn't had an opportunity to weigh in on our increasingly nitpicky back-and-forth. Did anyone find our brawl helpful? Did anyone else care about the points we were throwing at each other? I didn't know. So I decided to give people time to weigh in.
And I was surprised to see the conversation wind up going into different directions, none of them involving the level of post dissection to which jotheonah and I were subjecting each other. So it seems our discussion really didn't capture the hearts and minds of the rest of the town. Which perhaps meant that our rhetorical approach and the points we were raising didn't seem compelling to the outside audience. How does that help the town reach an informed decision? It really doesn't.
[Caveat: if someone now thinks points raised in my scuffle with jotheonah ARE important, I'm happy to address them. Just let me know.]
So I decided I needed to refocus my thoughts along a different analytical path. The path I decided on: What are the most likely Mafia pairs in the town? Not a novel approach, certainly, and others have posted their thoughts along these lines. But I found it helpful to organize my ideas when I started trying it, and so here are those ideas, followed through to their logical conclusion.
First, I eliminated people I'm almost sure are not Mafia. Specifically, bozzball and Galzria. Why?
- I've already said why I don't suspect bozzball of being Mafia; his prolonged disengagement from the forum precisely when a Mafioso would be most expected to at least log in to see if they killed someone. Also, if he were Mafia, I highly doubt he would think to take the "basically not playing at all" approach as a way to divert suspicion. That's not something I expect a newbie Mafioso would try. And it's not something I think an experienced Mafioso partner would advise him to do. I know Insomniac has suggested a Robz-Bozzball pairing, theorizing that Robz coached bozzball to stay away from the game to be less suspicious. I have to think, that even if Robz and bozzball were Mafiosi together, Robz wouldn't advise his newbie partner to not play the game just in an effort to help a Mafia win. That kind of behavior is just too meta-Mafia for me to attribute to Robz, or to anyone else in this game. (Sidenote: If TINAS were in this game, I wouldn't put it past him. But, y'know, he's not. :) )
- I also don't suspect Galzria. It feels like NONE of us do. I've mulled a few times why that is. I confess I get a very strong townie vibe from Galzria, and I suspect others do too. His approach, his posts, his playstyle, his analysis - it all gels together in my mind as the most convincing Town play I've seen out of anyone in the game. Yes, even more convincing then my own. Frankly, if Galzria is Mafia and taking us all for a ride, he's a Mafia prodigy and probably deserves the win. :)
So. That leaves four other players: Insomniac, Robz888, Kuildeous, and jotheonah. That's six pairings to analyze. Let's take them in turn. [Spoiler alert: I'm listing them from, in my view, least likely to most likely.]
Insomniac/Robz: I can't see it. Insomniac has suspected Robz all throughout Day #2, and their most recent posts reflect a very natural-sounding vehemance. I don't think, if they were Mafiosi together, that they could pull this off as convincingly as they are. So I don't think this is the pair. 0% likelihood.
jotheonah/Robz: Extremely unlikely. jotheonah has been accusing Robz pretty consistently throughout Day 2 and seems convinced that one of the two of us (me or Robz) is Mafia. Plus, if Robz and jotheonah are the pair, their second/fourth votes on Morgrim feels like too-close-together Day 1 Mafia play - especially as such blatant collusion wasn't necessary to get Morgrim lynched. The only reason I rank this as even slightly likely is that Robz hasn't really seemed very concerned about jotheonah's suspicions towards him. But I think that's because jotheonah has been so much more vocal in his suspicions of me and/or Kuildeous. 5% likelihood.
Insomniac/jotheonah: Very unlikely. Not because of Day 1 - I can certainly accept this pairing based solely on Day 1's events. But at the very beginning of Day 2, the two of them voiced the exact same suspicions - of me and Robz - back-to-back. I have a hard time believing the Mafia would start Day 2 by instantly forming a clear, united front. I think if jotheonah were Mafia, he'd be more cagey than that. 10% likelihood.
jotheonah/Kuildeous: Possible, but unlikely. jotheonah has been hitting Kuildeous pretty hard from the middle of Day 2 onwards, even in the face of growing suspicion (Galzria, Robz) aimed at Kuildeous. If they're Mafiosi, jotheonah is throwing Kuildeous under the bus. But WHY would he start throwing him under the bus? There was still plenty of suspicion to get focused on an innocent townie (i.e., me). There was no need for jotheonah to start bussing Kuildeous. Now, maybe this is a clever ploy, and jotheonah is voicing strong suspicion of Kuildeous with the plan of not actually VOTING for Kuildeous, finding some reason during the voting phase to vote for someone else. I can see that. I think it less likely than the pairings below, but I can see that. 15% likelihood.
Robz/Kuildeous: This is the pairing that most intrigued me, and the pairing I've been trying to gather info on. As you'll all recall, I originally suggested that neither Robz nor Kuildeous had ever voiced suspicion of each other; and then retracted that later when I realized I'd missed a post of Kuildeous's putting Robz as his #1 suspect. However, in doing so I noticed two interesting things:
- Kuildeous never went back to putting Robz #1 after that post; and
- Robz never addressed Kuildeous doing this. Never even acknowledged it, in fact.
This got me thinking seriously that Kuildeous's voicing suspicion of Robz was a double-bluff, and Robz ignored it because he knew he could afford to. The lack of any suspicion from Robz towards Kuildeous supported this view. So I really, really wanted to see what Robz had to say about the growing swell of suspicion towards Kuildeous.
At first, Robz's posts did nothing to allay my suspicions. He didn't really address the reasons Galzria/jotheonah were presenting for why Kuildeous was suspicious; rather, he was defending why he originally said "Kuildeous is not suspicious" and musing generally on the possibility of all the Morgrim-lynchers being innocent. Not to say his defense/musing was unreasonable. But it struck me as deflecting from issues that, if he were Mafia, he'd want to divert attention away from. So my suspicions grew.
But his most recent posts have reduced those suspicions. He's come out more solidly against Kuildeous, even offering his own analysis - reasons separate from Galzria's - as to why Kuildeous is likely Mafia. Now, it's possible Robz is Mafia and twigged to what I was trying to find out, and decided he needed to start doing a better job of distancing from Kuildeous. But... it's not like there's a tremendous amount of suspicion of Robz to compel him to do that. Insomniac, sure, but so far that cheese is standing alone. Both Galzria and jotheonah see me as the #2 candidate after Kuildeous. If Robz and Kuildeous were in cahoots, why wouldn't Robz try diverting attention towards me, rather than bus his partner prematurely? I think, if he were Mafia, that's more likely what he'd try to do. He didn't. So, at present, I think I was most probably barking up the wrong tree here. 20% likelihood.
Insomniac/Kuildeous: Here we go. Those keeping score at home can see I must think this is the most likely pairing, with 50% likelihood. And I do. Here's why.
Insomniac has always had me and Robz as his top suspects. First me over Robz, then quickly switching to Robz over me. Kuildeous is the mirror: he initially had Robz as his top suspect, then quickly switched to me over Robz. Meanwhile, various people have commented that, if there is a Mafia pair among the Morgrim-voters, it's most likely to be me/Robz.
If Insomniac and Kuildeous are the Mafia, they want attention focused on the Morgrim-voters as much as possible. They want to keep the pressure on those who look the most suspicious among the group. First they need to voice suspicion of all four of us to see where the suspicions seem to be sticking - and then they want to encourage those suspicions along. BUT, at the same time, they don't want to appear too aligned! If their suspicions are combined, it could be read as Mafia. So what would they do? Easy: they would split their "#1 suspect" reads between the two most lynchable-looking of us. From the get-go, that was me and Robz.
Now, do I think this plan is absolutely definitely what's going on? No. I think it's a coinflip, frankly. 50% likelihood. BUT, and this is key: I think it's much more likely than any other pairing.
So who do I vote for? Summing the likelihoods of each pair, I think Insomniac is Mafia with 60% likelihood. I think Kuildeous is Mafia with 85% likelihood. So I'll be voting for Kuildeous. But not just because of this. There's one other thing about Kuildeous's Day 2 behavior that really bugs me:
Kuildeous's suspicions have leapt around across all four Morgrim-lynchers. First it was Robz #1, Galzria #2, me #3. Then it was either me or jotheonah, more likely than Robz/Galzria. Then it was either me or jotheonah, but NOT Robz/Galzria. Then it was jotheonah more than me. Then it was jotheonah #1, me #2, Galzria #3, Robz #4. Now it's me more than jotheonah. Make up your mind!... or, I guess if you're Mafia, you want to hedge as much as you can, and finally insert your vote wherever it'll secure the hammer on an innocent. Kuildeous has set himself up to do this to ANY of the four of us Morgrim-lynchers. This is exactly what I would expect Kuildeous to do if he were Mafia. And that's exactly what he's done.
So I will be voting for Kuildeous. Note I say "will." I'm not voting yet because I'm sensitive to hammer concerns. Kuildeous should have a chance to respond to my analysis before any hammers fall. On the other hand, I know from how much suspicion my "retracted unvote offer" earned me from Day 1 that I need to set some very clear, non-subjective rule as to when I'm going to lay down my vote. So here it is:
Tomorrow morning, at 7:00 a.m. EDT, I will be logging in to the board. I will check to see if Kuildeous has responded to my analysis, and also check to see if Kuildeous is either logged in at the time OR had most recently logged in after this post was made. Then:
1. If Kuildeous has responded to my analysis, I will vote.
2. If Kuildeous has not responded to my analysis, but is presently logged in or logged in at some point after my post was made, I will vote. (But see #4 below.)
3. If Kuildeous has not logged in since my post was made, I will make a post noting this and add the next time I plan to check. Probably around noon EDT. I'll then log back in at that time and repeat this process.
4. If Kuildeous has not responded to my analysis BUT has made a post asking for more time to respond, I will NOT vote. Kuildeous, if you do this, I ask that you identify a time by which your response will be posted. I'll log back in at that time and repeat this process. (If you ask for more time but don't say how MUCH time, I will assume you need until noon EDT.)
NOTE: WHEN I VOTE, I AM NOT GOING TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT WHERE THE OTHER VOTES STAND AT THE TIME. That means that, if Kuildeous has 3 votes by the slated time for my vote, yes, I'm dropping the hammer.
There you have it. Town, take from this what you will. At this point, I do not see my conclusion changing.
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Well, the Voltgloss-Kuildeous pairing is looking a lot more likely. Unless they're completely resigned to one of them dying and hoping that outcome will keep the other one safe for the rest of the game. I'm actually not entirely convinced that isn't what's happening.
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SOrry, I meant a lot more UN likely.
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So I wanted to add my comments to two things. Firstly,
I've already said why I don't suspect bozzball of being Mafia; his prolonged disengagement from the forum precisely when a Mafioso would be most expected to at least log in to see if they killed someone. Also, if he were Mafia, I highly doubt he would think to take the "basically not playing at all" approach as a way to divert suspicion. That's not something I expect a newbie Mafioso would try. And it's not something I think an experienced Mafioso partner would advise him to do. I know Insomniac has suggested a Robz-Bozzball pairing, theorizing that Robz coached bozzball to stay away from the game to be less suspicious. I have to think, that even if Robz and bozzball were Mafiosi together, Robz wouldn't advise his newbie partner to not play the game just in an effort to help a Mafia win. That kind of behavior is just too meta-Mafia for me to attribute to Robz, or to anyone else in this game. (Sidenote: If TINAS were in this game, I wouldn't put it past him. But, y'know, he's not. )
I don't suspect Robz told him to stay away from the game I picture somethiing to this effect
Both: Night scheming
Bozzball: So I haven't been very active and probably wont for this weekend either and as we've seen in Mafia 1 and 2 this gets people suspicious.
Robz: you could always say something about how you feel bad about a lack of activity, since youll be lacking in activity itll probably make you seem in the clear just don't log on right away on friday after the results are up, itll add some credibility.
Bozzball: Done deal.
Or even
Both: Night scheming
Bozzball: So I haven't been very active and Im feeling bad about it and I might seek a replacement. How can I do this without hurting the mafia?
Robz: You could say exactly that and just not log on until saturday thatll add credibility to the story
Bozzball: Done deal.
I dont think its far fetched at all
Now I should probably also comment on this
Insomniac/Kuildeous: Here we go. Those keeping score at home can see I must think this is the most likely pairing, with 50% likelihood. And I do. Here's why.
...Insomniac is Mafia with 60% likelihood...
So you have noticed I haven't given Kuildeous much attention this is true. Do I think he's mafia? Maybe as I said in a post before he is a question mark for me and was at least at one point on day 2 My 3rd suspect. You point this out in your road map. Im aware that doesn't make us a less likely pairing because it shows suspect but not draw attention which well is probably a good hedge if we are the pair. But I just wanted to say I think he could be but is far less important than other people to me right now. Right now getting the mafia out of the Robz/Volt pair is more important to me.
However I don't see why you think I'm mafia aside from you suspect Kuildeous and Im a likely partner? Maybe just MAYBE your setting up to lynch me tomorrow because your mafia. I don't think you are but its possible. Anyways I also wanted to point one of your posts out to you, then one by robz and finally one by me
Voltgloss: Reply #283
My RL profession is attorney*. Catching people in lies is part of what I do for a living. In a legal case, if you can catch the other side's witness in a lie or a contradiction, their credibility takes a huge hit. If they're lying about X, aren't they more likely to be lying about everything else they're saying? The answer to that question is a resounding "yes." It's one of the most basic and simultaneously most difficult tasks to accomplish during the pendency of a legal case.
So, yes, I found Morgrim's lie damning. That is the reason why I "retracted my unvote": because he did the one thing that, in my eyes, could cement his status as someone posting falsehoods: posting a falsehood.
See also this post of Kuildeous's:
Quote from: Kuildeous on May 19, 2012, 06:44:08 pm
Oh, it’s not a willful unhelpfulness, jotheonah. It’s simply recognizing that without much information, the first day is pretty much a random lynch. In person, I’m sure it’s easy to catch someone in a lie. In a forum, not so much. People have the time to frame their lies so they are not as easy to dissect. None of the posts in the first day helped me choose my suspect, and going beyond that wasn’t going to provide me with any more information. Though, I do have to confess that first-day ramblings are shown in a whole different light once blood is drawn.
The bolded part is absolutely true. When I have played Mafia before, it has always been face-to-face. (I have never played forum-based Mafia before.) Catch someone in a lie, you've almost always got yourself Mafia. Or, at the very least, a lot higher than a 2/9 random chance of getting Mafia. In a forum - it's a lot harder to catch someone in a lie. But you can do it! And if it's that much harder in a forum to tease out someone's lies, isn't it that much more damning to actually catch someone in one?
Which is why I find it rather surprising that I'm being suspected primarily for retracting my unvote offer. To which I say two things:
1. I was the one who started the "let's wait for Tables" approach. The only reason I retracted my "unvote" offer was because Morgrim did the absolute single most incriminating thing he could possibly do: lie. To my mind, if you lie and get caught, you are vastly more likely to be Mafia. Morgrim lied and got caught. Why wouldn't I put my money where my mouth is by increasing the pressure on him?
Robz: Reply 330
Quote from: Insomniac on May 21, 2012, 03:53:03 pm
So here goes, Im gonna give my thoughts on everyone as that seems the best course of action, I'll start with my original 2 suspects and move into
the names i see in reverse chronological order till I've covered everyone including myself.
Voltgloss: Im still suspicious here but he hasn't done anything since I accused him to make me think he is mafia, his day 2 actions seem extremely
town to me and well he hasn't pointed the finger at anyone except when it was fairly unclear where people were leaning. Still suspicious but gonna
pull off for now
False. He pointed the finger on day one very early, and for Morgrim.
Quote from: Insomniac on May 21, 2012, 03:53:03 pm
Robz: Wow this guy has made me more suspicious of him, everyone has pointed out how a wide spread suspicion is bad for the town and Robz has pointed
a finger at everyone, did we all need to be looked at yes, but Robz has tried to get the town to continue to suspect everyone and I'm not sure thats
good? If you were going to have your conviction at this point Robz where would it be? HIGHLY suspicious
I insist this is a lie, as I said in the past post.
Quote from: Insomniac on May 21, 2012, 03:53:03 pm
Kuildeous: I dont have a good read here, Day 1
Galzria: Another character I dont have that good of a read on, a lot of the posts have been decent summaries which while helpful don't get me a good read
on your feelings. That said the ones of substance have been defensive or when you have thrown out an accusation and it generally has been against the
consensus which doesn't seem mafia to me. You're a question mark for me but I'd lean toward town.
Have Galzria's actions been against the consensus? Uh, I don't think they have been. I think they have been very much with consensus, re: Bozzball and Morgrim.
So I think Insomniac's thoughts on me, Voltgloss, and Galz are highly misleading and in some cases false. Would appreciate if people backed mu up here. I am quite sure I'm being fair to him.
Insomniac: Reply 432
2) Post 302: Points out that wide spread suspicion is bad and that town members need conviction. He himself has not shown ANY convinction today
and has thrown more fingers around then anyone else
So what happened buddy? Thought you voted for liars? I've given reason to which I think Robz is a liar (He hasnt addressed these yet).
He's given reasons to which I'm a liar (to which I rebuttaled) Do you think we're both telling the truth? Am I missing something?
Have you decided to move your money?
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So what happened buddy? Thought you voted for liars? I've given reason to which I think Robz is a liar (He hasnt addressed these yet).
He's given reasons to which I'm a liar (to which I rebuttaled) Do you think we're both telling the truth? Am I missing something?
Have you decided to move your money?
Not at all. I'm analyzing consistent with my previous analysis. Specifically:
Robz, I think you and Insomniac may be talking past each other. I thought Insomniac was talking about his read of Day 2 events. You seem to be reading his post as talking about Day 1 events.
I think Robz misunderstood your post. For this reason, I don't take his accusation of you being a liar into account. Likewise, I don't take into account your accusing him of lying by accusing you of being a liar, because I think his original accusation stemmed from a mistake. So I don't get any probative value from this exchange one way or the other.
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I'm not saying he's a liar because he accused me of being a liar. I'm saying he's a liar because he has said something and done something else entirely.
this is me calling him a liar (or more accurately a hypocrite)
2) Post 302: Points out that wide spread suspicion is bad and that town members need conviction. He himself has not shown ANY convinction today
and has thrown more fingers around then anyone else
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I gotta say, I'm a little suspicious of how Volt disengaged from our scrape. When I was getting the bulk of the suspicion earlier today (as in game day) I'm pretty sure the mafia was among my accusers. Now that all the pressure has shifted to Kuildeous I'm suspicious of anyone who's made that shift less than organically. IF Volt is mob, then what he's done is disconnected from a fight he was losing (which was also casting him into the spotlight), stepped back from the action which DID HAVE THE EFFECT of cooling down the accusations that were being leveled against him, and then reinserted himself on the side of the current groupthink - lynch Kuildeous.
On the one hand, I really like Volt's analysis. On the other hand, as Galzria put it earlier today, due diligence is called for.
I feel as I have about Voltgloss all day. If he is a demon, he's a demon with a silver tongue, and his posts are always so well-written and well-reasoned I want to believe him. But we were very suspicious of him earlier today, for good reason, and we'd be fools to take this analysis (which omits Volt entirely as a suspect) at face-value.
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- I've already said why I don't suspect bozzball of being Mafia; his prolonged disengagement from the forum precisely when a Mafioso would be most expected to at least log in to see if they killed someone. Also, if he were Mafia, I highly doubt he would think to take the "basically not playing at all" approach as a way to divert suspicion. That's not something I expect a newbie Mafioso would try. And it's not something I think an experienced Mafioso partner would advise him to do.
It may actually be more innocuous than you think. If this game requires more involvement than bozzball expected, then he simply won't have the time to do much. And he doesn't have to do much.
Assuming bozzball is Mafia, then any one of the other players could carry the game. There's a 50% chance that bozzball is a rolecop. If he's not, then he can just hang back and let the other Mafia player call the shots. It doesn't require him to commit so much to the game (and what a commitment!). Hell, even if he is a rolecop, he has a 48-hour window to log in, read a message from his cohort as to who he should target, and send that target to Axxle. Even if bozzball's partner gets lynched, bozzball can still perform by randomly assassinating people (and screw the survivors' analyses).
I don't think bozzball is out of the running. His silence has pretty much taken suspicion off of him and placed it on the other six people. It might not even be genius play (though it could be); it could just be convenience, and we'd be the fools for killing ourselves.
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- I also don't suspect Galzria. It feels like NONE of us do. I've mulled a few times why that is. I confess I get a very strong townie vibe from Galzria, and I suspect others do too. His approach, his posts, his playstyle, his analysis - it all gels together in my mind as the most convincing Town play I've seen out of anyone in the game. Yes, even more convincing then my own. Frankly, if Galzria is Mafia and taking us all for a ride, he's a Mafia prodigy and probably deserves the win. :)
Of all of you people, I've been flip-flopping the most on Galzria.
I've almost come out a couple of times to declare him unequivocally a townie. Here's why I've considered it. See, I have a rare piece of knowledge that is shared by only two other people: I am a townie. Of course, I don't expect anyone else to believe it--only my death can prove it to you.
But, the Mafia members know this. They know that if I am lynched, then their actions will be heavily scrutinized. They know before the rest of you which messages could be construed as Mafia ploys and will work to control that damage before the hammer falls. I want the vote to go as quickly as possible. Don't give the Mafia the chance to cover their tracks. The bandwagon is confused enough as it is with people stretching out to find my "partner."
So, if Galzria is Mafia, would he go after a known townie with a balls-to-the-wall attitude? Is he willing to be included in a group of people guilty of condemning two innocent men to their deaths? He goes after me with such gusto that I find it hard to believe that he is Mafia. It would have to be a very risky bluff if he were Mafia. As Vostgloss says, he'd be a Mafioso prodigy if he can come down hard on two innocents and deflect blame in Day 3.
I will say with a 90% certainty that Galzria is a townie. The other 10% is there because this is play-by-forum, and even newbies can pull off elaborate cons.
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As Vostgloss says, he'd be a Mafioso prodigy if he can come down hard on two innocents and deflect blame in Day 3.
Just to clarify, V didn't say those exact words....replace with, "To paraphrase Vostgloss..."
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Kuildeous's suspicions have leapt around across all four Morgrim-lynchers. First it was Robz #1, Galzria #2, me #3. Then it was either me or jotheonah, more likely than Robz/Galzria. Then it was either me or jotheonah, but NOT Robz/Galzria. Then it was jotheonah more than me. Then it was jotheonah #1, me #2, Galzria #3, Robz #4. Now it's me more than jotheonah. Make up your mind!
How can I do that when all four of you are suspicious and keep changing in my assessments? Maybe you think it's easy to pick a target and stick with it, but when arguments keep popping up, those targets change.
And besides I have made up my mind. I've landed a vote. As stated before, my vote doesn't hold a lot of water right now. It will, though.
I've acknowledged your analysis. I have already defended myself to the best of my ability. You've done very well, Voltgloss. If you are Mafia, then I expect nothing less in your ploy to have me killed. If you are indeed town, I can respect the process you've undergone to get here. You may drop the hammer when you are ready.
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K, I shouldn't have to say this but, if you are town, please don't vote for yourself. ;)
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K, I shouldn't have to say this but, if you are town, please don't vote for yourself. ;)
I promise nothing.
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That was a joke, though I could see where it wouldn't look that way. Smiley goes here.
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So, my reactions to people have shifted lately. I’ll try to frame this as, “If X is Mafia, then he knows I’m not…”
Bozzball – It doesn’t matter if he knows I’m town or not. He hasn’t had the time to really do much to stir up trouble.
Voltgloss – If Voltgloss knows I’m town, then he did a fine job of hanging back in Day 2. Now that there is inertia, he has come out against me. He won’t be seen as the instigator, though. He very well could be a hapless townie getting caught in a Mafia plot. Despite his gradual turn toward the Kuildeous bandwagon, it seems fairly likely that Voltgloss is indeed a townie. His analysis has exposed quite a bit. Might still be a Mafia with an awesome ploy.
Galzria – If Galzria knows I’m town, then he is practically signing his own death certificate by leading the charge against me. It seems unlikely that the Mafia would make such a move. So I labeled him as a townie. I searched to see when Galzria started the great anti-Kuildeous jihad of 2012 to see who may have subtly inserted that idea into his mind. The disturbing thing is that there was no catalyst. He went this route on his own. So, either Galzria has a self-defeatist knack of targeting innocent people or he is indeed Mafia trying a risky gambit knowing that the gambit’s obviousness places him above suspicion.
Jotheonah – If Jjotheonah knows I’m town, then he is playing it perfectly. He started off in agreement with Galzria that I should be lynched. He did stop to ask for Galzria’s reasons. This looks like an emerging shred of sanity in a crazed townsperson, but it could be a ploy to pin everything onto Galzria so that he looks more guilty in Day 3 for leading the charge. Still suspicious of J.
Insomniac – If Insomniac knows I’m town, then he’s playing a far higher-level game than I expect. Rather than jump on the bandwagon, he barrels down on Robz888. He started off targeting Voltgloss and Robz888, but he’s moved on to Robz888, even though Robz is now pretty low on everyone else’s list (even lower on my list). He didn’t even look up during my crucifixion. If he’s indeed Mafia, then he is trying to win us over by not hopping on the obvious bandwagon. It’s possible, but I’m getting a fairly strong town read off him.
Robz888 – If Robz knows I’m town, then he took a very safe route by not accusing me early in Day 2. He would have waited until the rabid townspeople found a scapegoat. Now they have found out, and Robz finally realized that the innocent person has acted against the standards of the game. Now he can justify the finger-pointing without looking like he’s involved. I’m not wholly convinced by Insomniac’s case against Robz, but I do find it interesting that Insomniac focuses so heavily on Robz while ignoring the others (including me). At the very least, I have reconsidered his role in Morgrim’s death and the convenient recognition that I don’t look at innocent as he first thought. He played it way too safe with me and even threw me under the bus by flat-out saying that he didn’t suspect me, when everyone should have been a suspect. I feel comfortable dismissing Galzria because of his actions. Robz888 did not have anything to base his dismissal of me on.
Therefore, I feel even more confident to vote: Robz888. If he is Mafia, then Insomniac did us a favor by redirecting attention to him. If he is not Mafia, then we can pretty much rule that Insomniac is; his sacrifice would turn a 3-2 split into 2-1.
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The "balls-to-the-wall crusade" against you was never my intent. I stated my beliefs and have conviction in them, but I didn't think I would need to restate them over, and over, and over...
I don't MIND, but I fully understand how it could feel like I'm on a witch hunt for your head. I just think you've made the biggest case to be Mafia. At the end of the day, that's it. Will I die tomorrow if I'm wrong? I can see why I would. It would mean instant game over and that we got out played (or at least I did) badly.
But right now I stand by my beliefs, and will until I'm proven right (or as you claim, wrong). Your attempts at "who could know I'm innocent" intrigue me.
Are you misleading with your suspicions of Robz? Why change from Voltgloss? You seemed so sure Voltgloss was Mafia. Did you drop him to protect him? He's coming at you hard now, and you switch targets. Again.
Hmm, I wonder how likely a Volt-Kuil pairing is...
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I'm not doing any voting again until the Robz analysis is in. Especially if Volt makes his vote in the morning. Still plenty of time, no need to cut short opportunities to fish for information.
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I'm afraid that Bozzball will put a vote on me for saying this (as he did on Day 1) ;) .... but I am working on my responses right now!!!
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Bah! Hurry up! I need to go to sleep, but want to hear your thoughts first so I can think on them! Hurry hurry hurry! ;)
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Why Insomniac is wrong about me
I think there are valid reasons to suspect me. For instance, the big reason is that I am most responsible for the town wrongly lynching Morgrim.
However, Insomniac has proposed a number of reasons that don’t hold water when scrutinized. Let’s look at them.
Robz888 - For being the last one other than Morgrim to vote for Morgrim, he is the catalyst that pushed Morgrims lynch to the top,
Additionally for someone who always comes out guns blazing he really didnt
I place votes more carefully than anyone else in this game. As I’ve repeatedly explained, I had planned to vote for Morgrim even before the 2nd or 3rd votes were placed. I just like to take my time with actual voting. Then these votes materialized from others, and some of these voters asked if I would hold off. I did, out of respect for them, even though I really shouldn’t have been required to do so. If anybody was unsure about their vote, they shouldn’t have cast it in the first place. That’s my view on voting. So I don’t think it’s fair to fault the order of my vote. And I couldn’t have known that Morgrim would off himself, so pinning that on me is hardly fair. Feel free to pin the fact that we went after him in the first place on me, but... the timing of my vote doesn’t seem like good criticism. If you insist on that point, you should count my vote as coming in just around Voltgloss’s, which is when his support of several of my arguments about Morgrim first convinced me I was correct. I didn’t vote then out of a habit that is good and useful and courteous to the town.
Robz: Wow this guy has made me more suspicious of him, everyone has pointed out how a wide spread suspicion is bad for the town and Robz has pointed
a finger at everyone, did we all need to be looked at yes, but Robz has tried to get the town to continue to suspect everyone and I'm not sure thats
good? If you were going to have your conviction at this point Robz where would it be? HIGHLY suspicious
This is a false characterization of me. “Everyone” has not pointed out how widespread suspicions are bad for the town. I said that. And it’s not even exactly what I said, or at least not what I meant. When I was talking about convictions and hedging.... look, some hedging is unavoidable, because this game is hard. I didn’t mean to say that it’s only okay to ever suspect one person at a time and never waver. I just meant that when voting is happening and accusations are made, it would be very easy for the mafia to go along with any potential lymching plan that doesn’t kill them. But townspeople can and should hedge sometimes, and mafia players will often act like townspeople with strong convictions. It’s just that in general, if you say so and such person is slightly suspicious, and so is this person, and so is this person, and so is this person, you are pretty useless. Similarly, if you cast a vote but publicly (and belatedly) declare your strong reservations about it, that’s mafia-style hedging.
I don’t think I have been more wide-ranging in my suspicions on Day 2 than other players. DOes someone really disagree with that? My suspicions have been evolving, and the people I suspect now are somewhat different than the ones I suspected at the beginning of the round. But I think even a cynical player who suspects me quite a bit would conclude that my thoughts about people are honest and based on solid evidence, and that I play with conviction.
(Now, there was at the time some confusion about which days we were talking about, and I think I mistakenly thought he was talking about Day 1 when I quibbled about his comments on Volt and Galz, so I was wrong to call him out there. But what he said about me was wrong.)
Pointing out that widespread suspicion is bad while pointing a finger at everyone? Even if not everyone is saying it (A lot of people have brought it up since you, I had originally thought you posted it but couldnt find the post so I didnt want to say that you said it and then pointed a finger without evidence).
And post number 254 is where you point a finger at everyone, you analyze everyone which is fine but you proceed to suspect most of us of being mafia or at least the possibility is entertained
More of this. Maybe you just misunderstood my post. I wasn’t saying “everyone is mafia!” I was listing reasons why each person could be mafia. I believe that is helpful, and I have appreciated the other folks who have done it.
RE: Bozzball, Bozzballs 'quit' has removed MUCH attention from him and seems like it would be a VERY good way for mafia to draw fire away from him and could have been advised of that move by a smart player
For these reasons I STRONGLY believe that Robz and Bozzball are the mafia.
Vote: Robz888
Oh, nonsense. Really, that idea is nonsense. Volt nicely explained why it’s not likely (check out his post a few back, it was great). For the reasons he said, and I will add another: Look, Bozzball voted me out of absolutely nowhere, right off the bat on Day 1. It was after I made a short post saying I was playing catchup and would post in a minute. So what’s my master mafia plan there? Tell my newbie co-mafia to place a vote on me for absolutely, transparently, no reason? Clearly, I didn’t explain how he would ever defend that vote if pressed on it--since it’s entirely indefensible. Bozzball is lucky that vote didn’t bite him more strongly round 1, but it had major potential to hurt him--or me, if it caught on for some odd reason. It’s ludicrous that he would do that if I was his co-mafia, and it’s ludicrous that I would tell him to do it. All it did was cast unwelcome suspicion on one or both of us.
Bozzball is the person I think is most innocent because he hasn’t expressed much interest in this game, and if he had a role, I would expect that he would. I know other people feel similarly about him. It could be a mafia strategy, but I just doubt it.
In my next post, I will give my new suspicions. If you want the already available version, just read Volt’s post. Unsurprisingly, his thoughts are very similar to mine. At least I will be able to provide evidence that I had some of those thoughts before him. I say that not becuase I suspect he is stealing my thoughts, but because I don’t want to be accused of stealing his.
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ok, 2 things before I turn in.
#1 The near unanimous suspicion of Kuildeous is bothering the hell out of me. If he's mafia, why isn't anyone coming to his aid? The mafia are smarter than this, and I can't believe they'd give up their advantage this easily! Unless Insomniac is his partner and is trying to backdoor-defend by trying to get us on the Robz-Bozz bandwagon instead. But overall, I'm not buying it. I was strongly leaning toward Kuildeous's guilt, but the eleventh hour is giving me misgivings very similar to my round 1 doubts about Morgrim. For the record, I am voicing them NOW, before it's too late. I somehow expect I'll be accused of mafia-hedging because of this later on, but so be it. I am no longer completely convinced of K's guilt. I will take another look at everything in the morning. I may yet come back around on him.
#2 If it's the only way to get you to stop lurking and give us some kind of read on you, Vote: Bozzball. I encourage others to pressure-vote bozzball into saying something; our lack of information on him is really crippling toward us having any certianty on anything.
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ok, 2 things before I turn in.
#1 The near unanimous suspicion of Kuildeous is bothering the hell out of me. If he's mafia, why isn't anyone coming to his aid? The mafia are smarter than this, and I can't believe they'd give up their advantage this easily! Unless Insomniac is his partner and is trying to backdoor-defend by trying to get us on the Robz-Bozz bandwagon instead. But overall, I'm not buying it. I was strongly leaning toward Kuildeous's guilt, but the eleventh hour is giving me misgivings very similar to my round 1 doubts about Morgrim. For the record, I am voicing them NOW, before it's too late. I somehow expect I'll be accused of mafia-hedging because of this later on, but so be it. I am no longer completely convinced of K's guilt. I will take another look at everything in the morning. I may yet come back around on him.
#2 If it's the only way to get you to stop lurking and give us some kind of read on you, Vote: Bozzball. I encourage others to pressure-vote bozzball into saying something; our lack of information on him is really crippling toward us having any certianty on anything.
Someone is coming to his aid. It's him and Insomniac.
I arrived at this conclusion, essentially, by changing my mind on a big thing. At first I suspected that the mafia would be among the Morgrim voters, because they wanted to lynch an innocent townie. Upon review, it’s obvious that Morgrim was going to die, and totally unncessary for both mafia to have voted for him. Indeed, it was possible for neither to do so, since he hammered himself.
Skeptics should note that I began this round by acquiting Kuildeous. Well, I was wrong, what can I say? I was way too hasty in making that call, but I made it based on this earlier notion that I have changed my mind on, about Morgrim voters and non-Morgrim voters. I also sort of just didn’t correctly remember the things he had been saying. Upon further review, he is quite a flip-flopping hedge monster. I’ve already stated a couple reasons I discovered that made him suspicious. And also, Galz, J, and Volt all listed him at some point as a top mafia suspect. These are the people whose thoughts I trust most strongly, and I know they aren’t all mafia. I seriously doubt even 2 of them are mafia.
Now, for as long as I have suspected any of the non-Morgrim voters, Insomniac has been the top of my list, mostly because he is making strong arguments against me that I don’t think are fair or valid for reasons I went over in the last post. Because his arguments against me aren’t good--that I suspect too many people? I don’t suspect more than anybody else, really I don’t--I’ve decided they may have been rehearsed. I know I am an easy target--that’s a point Galzria made about me--and I could very well see the mafia pairing deciding last night that I would be the bandwagon target. (And look what’s happening!)
Also, he keeps bringing up Tables, and each time he brings it up, I can’t help but think it’s because he was the one who killed Tables. I know a couple of you were fans of his Tables analysis, but I didn’t think it helped us much. (I didn’t think Tables helped us much either. Perhaps I’m still living in the alternate-reality where him and Morgrim are mafia. Such simpler times.)
And now we see that Insomniac and Kuildeous have both voed me. This is totally unsurprising, given that there best hope is to convince two more people that I am the mafia. I can understand that Insomniac’s vote is based on all those things he said. But Kuildeous? Come on. It’s obvious he doesn’t actually suspect me, but knows his only hope is to get on that bandwagon.
(I was going to review people based on pairings and suspicion, but Volt already did that, and I agree with his analysis. I did say earlier, though, that K and Insomniac were a top suspicious pairing to me. I have for some time worried that neither mafia were Morgrim voters, because they didn’t need to be, we were outplaying ourselves quite successfully.)
Which one is more likely to be mafia? Volt thinks it's Kuildeous. That may be the one point where I'm not toally agreeing, although Kuildeous jumping to vote me is so suspicious, he's just depserate to save himself. Except for that, though, I would say it is Insomniac. Also, K has very few other possible pairings, since he can't be with me, G, Volt, or J. Insomniac, on the other hand, could be a co-conspirator to basically anybody other than me. I would be most worried about him and J, probably. But K and Insomniac still seems most likely.
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You didnt address my more detailed post Robz.
Also I'm playing a lot like you on Day 1. I am driving hard because I expect your mafia. I straight up expect to be lynched if you are not.
(Also not sure if its clear or not but this it's nothing personal I actually think you're mafia)
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You didnt address my more detailed post Robz.
Also I'm playing a lot like you on Day 1. I am driving hard because I expect your mafia. I straight up expect to be lynched if you are not.
(Also not sure if its clear or not but this it's nothing personal I actually think you're mafia)
Ha ha, nothing personal! I know that ;D
Sorry, there are a lot of posts to keep up with. I didn't see additional points, though, beyond what you said about the timing of my Morgrim vote, my proposed wide web of suspicions, and my relationship with Bozzball.
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And I genuinely think you are mafia, too. Likely alongside Kuildeous, or possibly Jonah, or I guess anybody. Though if it's Kuildeous, it really has to be Kuildeous and you.
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I will say a few things before I head to bed here. The first is probably more relevant than the second which is more relevant than the third
1) Me and Kuildeous are not both mafia. I know this to be true. And the best evidence I can give is this. Robz you arent a popular vote right now I've been a big proponent of you since the beginning. This is why I voted you. Mafia on Day 2 probably want to hang out somewhere between 1-3 and definetly not 4 and they definetly dont want to be 1 and 2. If we are both mafia how transparent would it be for us both to vote for you as numbers 1 and 2 when it isnt likely others will jump on. (Unless they are mafia or agree with my points)
2) IF Kuildeous IS mafia and DOES get lynched I will be the next to go. SO assuming he is mafia the odds go 4-1 (remaining mafia kills a town during the night) assuming that town is not me and the town lynch me which i fully suspect they would it goes 2-1 for town, SO I actually like the odds for winning if Kuildeous is mafia. If he isn't and gets lynched god help us all
3) IF Robz is mafia and does get lynched then its a similar boat. but probably doesn't get us much farther on figuring out who robz #2 is
4) IF ROBZ ISNT mafia I dont like town odds at all. because it goes 4-2, 3-2 after night phase and then I probably get lynched for pushing robs so hard, which puts it at 2-2 and after night phase 2-1 for the loss. Thats not to say that I should be lynched if Robz isnt mafia because I fully expect that I would. Its just something I only just thought about.
Hmm for NOW
Unvote
I dont want a hammer to fall while I sleep. I will likely recast in the morning unless a new day sheds some new light on my thoughts or some post sways me. Though I doubt it
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Number 4 is the ONLY reason Im unvoting for tonight, it is a possibility that makes our chances look grim
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Voting per my conditionals.
Vote: Kuildeous
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Bozzball, I would like to hear some analysis, response, thoughts, SOMETHING from you.
I don't know WHAT to think.
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There is a lot more reading to do than I viably have time for. I am impressed how you guys are getting so much analysis from seemingly so little information.
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bozzball, do you want to continue playing this game? Or would you prefer that someone else swap in as a replacement?
If the latter, let us and Axxle know.
If the former, you need to weigh in.
It's just not fair on the rest of us for you to stay in the game but refuse to take part. I don't mean to be rude, and I realize I may be coming off as rude. But, well, staying in the game and refusing to take part is rude towards all of us.
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Sorry, "refusing to take part" comes off as harsher than I meant. If you don't have time to read everything, that's clearly not your fault. But if you don't have that time, and don't feel comfortable participating because you don't have that time, then your staying in the game but not participating brings it to a dead halt. Especially now during the voting stage.
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There is a lot more reading to do than I viably have time for. I am impressed how you guys are getting so much analysis from seemingly so little information.
It may seem impressive, but there is probably too much overanalyzing on our part. This overanalysis got Morgrim killed. It has a good chance of getting another innocent killed (which is not apparent yet). Hell, I'm tempted to drop analyzing and just go for the most obvious targets. Maybe the Mafia can choose to employ obviously transparent ploys since we are so good at overthinking things.
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VOTE: ROBZ
nothing occured to change my mind. I'm positive I will be lynched before the game ends if Robz is town or if Kuildeous is mafia still but Im sure Robz isnt town.
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Alright, said I would wait for Robz's reply, and it's in. Nothing's changed except where I think #2 may be. Both Volt and Robz have decent ideas. Volt's conviction and vote, as with Jotheonah earlier, have me thinking townie right now.
So that leaves as a likely pair:
Kuildeous-Robz
Kuildeous-Insomniac
I'm not convinced either way. I had more or less written Insomniac off, mostly because of a refusal on my part to believe that we fell into our own trap with Morgrim. I don't know now. I have to seriously reconsider. Volt and Robz both made good cases. I wasn't nearly as sold by Insomniacs argument for Robz (not that he's ultimately wrong).
Hmm... Stuff to ponder. Either way, VOTE: KUILDEOUS
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Come on. It’s obvious he doesn’t actually suspect me
Not true. I've suspected you from the beginning of Day 2. Just because I haven't been as vocal about it lately doesn't mean that I don't think about your words and actions. It can be hurtful to the cause to broadcast everything (hell, I have said way too much already). When Galzria began his witch hunt against me, I watched those who didn't initially support him. The Mafia would watch the inertia and try to nudge things along. Jonah was actually the primary enabler of the Galzria engine, but he jumped on the bandwagon awfully early. I'm starting to get an inkling that his backing off might actually be sincere.
Volt and Robz did not initially join the bandwagon, but they've directed their attention to me. Volt didn't start off with me as a primary suspect, but I was still a suspect in his mind. Robz's dismissal of me put me in a very dangerous position. As the penultimate vote that doomed Morgrim, he knew he would be suspected. He could set one of the non-Morgrim voters up as a patsy in case he was the one lynched. He would die for the Mafia, and the town would be looking for his partner. All arrows would point to the person that Robz did not suspect, while his real partner would be free to wreak havoc.
But that's not how events unfolded. He was not lynched and in fact was allowed to fade slightly into the background. He no longer needed a patsy since it looked like he wasn't going to get lynched. He is free to recant and start casting doubt upon me while not getting involved too heavily. Maybe I watched The Usual Suspects too many times, but I see this as a distinct possibility.
This elevates him above Voltgloss. Volt cast an early vote for me. He might have taken the opportunity to be in a comfortable position rather than the risky final vote, but I'm not so sure about that. It's a more brazen move.
Insomniac's unvote surprises me, though. He claims that he is so certain of Robz's guilt that he wouldn't be bothered at all if four votes get piled on him (#413). Yet, he unvoted after I voted for Robz. He couldn't have been afraid that votes 3 and 4 would be Mafia, since he was so certain that Robz is a villain. So why the sudden change in heart? He claims that he wanted to be awake when the hammer falls, but I'm not convinced.
Dammit, my theory is blasted by the fact that Insomniac reinstated his vote. I'm sure the rest of this is useless, but I'll include it anyway in case I'm wrong about something. I thought I stumbled across something there.
I'm starting to see a Robz/Insomniac connection. Even if you don't believe that Robz is Mafia, then you are probably one of those that believe in the Kuildeous/Insomniac connection. If so, I urge you to vote for Insomniac. He is featured in many of the likely pairings that people have posited.
I've broken down what would happen if you vote for Insomniac or me. Here is the rundown:
Event: Insomniac is lynched and is Mafia. Townsperson is assassinated.
Day 3 population: 4 Town 1 Mafia
Consequence: Kuildeous is lynched in Day 3. Townsperson is assassinated.
Day 4 population: 2 Town 1 Mafia
Event: Insomniac is lynched and is not Mafia. Townsperson is assassinated.
Day 3 population: 3 Town 2 Mafia
Consequence: Kuildeous is lynched in Day 3. Townsperson is assassinated.
Day 4 population: 1 Town 2 Mafia
Event: Kuildeous is lynched. Townsperson is assassinated.
Day 3 population: 3 Town 2 Mafia
Consequence: ?
The first situation is preferable. Having only three people left would suck, but the town could still win.
The second situation would be terrible. The consequence is not set in stone. If Insomniac is not Mafia, then he obviously doesn't have a connection with anyone. I imagine the next stage would be to focus on the Volt/Kuildeous connection, so there's still a likelihood that I'll be lynched on Day 3, in which case the Mafia wins handily.
The third situation is messy. Frankly, I don't envy you guys at all in Day 3 in this case. I have no idea what will happen if you lynch me in Day 2.
Still keeping my vote on Robz, though. I argued earlier in favor of either Robz or Volt being Mafia but not both. I still stand by this.
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You're urging us to vote for insomniac ... but not doing so yourself?
Insomniac-Kuildeous is looking really good right now. Especially because although Insomniac's efforts to keep K alive are haphazard, his efforts to keep himself alive are very mafia-ish. The tell that I was missing from K in my last post was he wasn't panicking or flailing enough for a mafioso about to die. But now he's begun to act like I expect him to. As has Insomniac.
Still, I'm not ruling out K-R, V-R, or K-V.
Insomniac-Voltgloss is the possibility that's still keeping me from voting K. Volt, you want to weigh in on Insomniac's recent performance and whether or not it's as scummy as Robz thinks it is?
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I know I'm dead/lynched. I'm not trying to keep myself alive.
I don't know if K is mafia but if he is and gets lynched I'm done for because people see me as his partner. I actually think this is an ok outcome.
If Robz ISNT mafia and is lynched I'm lynched for being wrong
If Robz is mafia, I might live or I might be killed during night 2.
IF K is not lynched or is town, and Robz is not lynched I might be killed during night 2 for being on the right track.
In short I don't think I'm going to be alive for long, and Im not trying to keep myself alive. I didn't go after Kuildeous and well apparently that makes me guilty for today.
That said IF Kuildeous is mafia I will HAPPILY die because at least the town has a decent chance. As long as mafia dies today, then kill me because at least one mafia is gone and the town still has a good chance.
Kuildeous: What the hell? I give the SAME analysis as you and retract my vote temporarily, then you post the SAME analysis I do (although scratched out) As a reason to vote for me. If your going to cite my analysis as a reason to vote for me, don't give the same analysis.
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You're urging us to vote for insomniac ... but not doing so yourself?
No, I'm not urging you to vote for Insomniac. I found his unvote to be suspicious when I put a second vote on Robz. I wasn't quite buying his claim that he just didn't want to be asleep when the votes were finalized. I wrote up the strikethrough portion with the assumption that Insomniac would come back with a reason why he wouldn't be voting for Robz. He nullified that by reinstating the vote.
Though, if he keeps his vote active on Robz only while he's awake, then that gives him control over when he can retract his vote. I'm not quite ready to treat Insomniac as a townie. I almost was, but this recent unvote and revote have concerned me.
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Interesting. Very very interesting.
I've been watching very carefully who has joined onto my theories against K and when. Oddly, I actually agree with much of K's analysis above. Jotheonah backed me to quickly for him to be Mafia. I threw together a post with the theory that he was, but really, it seems highly unlikely. That leaves Robz, Volt, and Insomniac (again, for better or worse right now I have to ignore Bozzball add there's nothing to base a case on).
Let me posit some theories:
IF Kuildeous comes back Mafia:
Robz is likely innocent. With mounting pressure on Kuildeous, he would be much more likely to cast his vote somewhere his partner could help redirect.
Voltgloss could be town or Mafia. Kuildeous has been going after him for awhile, and did cast a vote, which makes Volt seem more town-like. Still, wouldn't write him off, since Kuuldeous has bounced around so much.
Insomniac is likely Mafia. He set Robz up to fall, and Robz has been the easiest go-to target since the start of day 2. It was easy to make a case, and allowed them to work together to pull votes off Kuildeous.
IF Kuildeous is turned up townie:
We loose. Well, if I get killed because of this result. That said, I have to consider:
Jotheonah could be Mafia. He could've been first out of the gate to support me to win over my friendship, something he has seemed to be trying to gain since early day one. This would offer him a layer of protection. Me. A great place for a Mafia to stand in day 3.
Robz could be Mafia. His timing is suspect in this case. It should be noted that he did come out in defense of K early day 2, so his initial instinct would've been right. Maybe that's a slightly more town tell.
Voltgloss could be Mafia. His timing is also suspect. His conviction and quick* vote cast would make me believe Mafia trying to push a growing movement.
Insomniac is likely town. Although he could be a Mafia trying to stay away from Kuildeous for just this scenario. I wouldn't be convinced of innocence.
Just thoughts to chew over. Opinions?
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Vote Count 2-4
Kuildeous (2) - Voltgloss, Galzria
Robz888 (2) - Kuildeous, Insomniac
bozzball (1) - jotheonah
Not Voting (2) - Robz888, bozzball
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline: Friday, June 1, 2012 6pm PDT
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Aaand Insomniac reacts to my assertion that the mafia should be panicking right now by pointedly not panicking ("I don't care if I live or die, but...") Does anyone else think Insomniac is looking worse and worse?
And the two people he HASN'T targeted (lately) are myself and Voltgloss. Well, and Galzria, but that makes sense. Not a lot to be gained by that at this point.
Please, Somebody give me a really good reason not to believe in Voltgloss - Insomniac. I'm going to start going through the backlog to take a look at this pairing.
Re: Kuildeous: Once again I want to stress that as bad as this looks, I'm just trying to make sure we don't repeat Day 1's mistakes. We absolutely CAN'T afford to lynch town today and the inkling of a town read I get off K is enough to stay my hand.
Consider that if I were mafia, I would be doing myself NO favors with this hedge, since if K turns up mafia I'll look like I was helping him and if he turns up town I'll look like a Mafia hedging away from an innocent kill I helped egg on. So please believe my motives are pure here, and help me to be as sure about this execution as you all appear to be.
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Kuildeous: What the hell? I give the SAME analysis as you and retract my vote temporarily, then you post the SAME analysis I do (although scratched out) As a reason to vote for me. If your going to cite my analysis as a reason to vote for me, don't give the same analysis.
True. I had forgotten about that analysis. It's really the same situation for many of the votes. Looks like you and I are in the same boat.
My analysis is moot anyway. It was to urge people to vote for you since you pulled the vote away. I have abandoned that train of thought for the time being.
If you are willing to keep your vote on Robz the next time you sleep, then I'll be more likely to ditch the idea that you and Robz are fellow Mafia conspirators.
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Insomniac-Voltgloss is the possibility that's still keeping me from voting K. Volt, you want to weigh in on Insomniac's recent performance and whether or not it's as scummy as Robz thinks it is?
Sure. I need some time to go through in depth, particularly the recent back-and-forth, but I'll definitely do so. May not be until the early evening though (EDT). Work is pretty busy today.
There is one point that jumps out at me from your most recent post.
Consider that if I were mafia, I would be doing myself NO favors with this hedge, since if K turns up mafia I'll look like I was helping him and if he turns up town I'll look like a Mafia hedging away from an innocent kill I helped egg on. So please believe my motives are pure here, and help me to be as sure about this execution as you all appear to be.
If you are mafia, and if Kuildeous is mafia, then your hedge would do you a tremendous favor if it redirects the lynch to someone other than Kuildeous. Like me or Insomniac (who, if this scenario is the correct one, would also be town).
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On another note, Kuildeous and bozzball, who are your ssuspects.
The rub is that I don't currently have suspicions. Something I've noticed in play-by-forum is that there is no body language to read. Also, people have more time to come up with rebuttals, examining what they have written with plenty of time to come up with wording that acquits themselves and possibly puts blame on others. From reading the past few pages, I do not have a rock-steady suspicion.
That being said, I am going to vote Insomniac. It's not because I am actively accusing Insomniac of being Mafia, but I'm adopting the "better safe than sorry" approach of lynching. I only hope that my random dart hits the bull's-eye.
Does everyebody else remember this? K cast his first-ever Day 1 vote for Insomniac.
Re: Volts - Even then, no it wouldn't. It would make the two of us look really really bad tomorrow.
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While I haven't finished my analysis/note taking yet (only done pages 2-4 so far, and it's taken this long!), I have to say that Voltgloss is looking the most town player: I have repeated notes on how he's made good useful points to the town. Helpful to the town, or good mafia play? Hard to say, but I'm leaning towards town (of course, rereading pages 5-7 could change that). Players I don't have any notes on (i.e. nothing noteworthy to report) for those 3 pages are Kuleidos and Imsomniac. I'll be keeping an eye out for them on the later pages.
The reason I'm saying this now, is because I ended up not finishing by a long shot before I have to go. Since I'm going to be board gaming all afternoon, I might not be back for more play until late this evening (10-11 hours time). Which means even MORE things to read and post about. Yay! (I might leave early, depending on stuff)
Something else I'd forgotten: The one thing we KNEW about Tables' lost analysis was that it was pro-Volt. So that makes it less likely for Volt to target Tables as his night 1 kill.
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Heres the reason Kuildeous is innocent. He voted for Robz.
No really lets think about this
I will not move my vote from Robz today. Period
Kuildeous has voted for Robz. Thats 2
Galzria has voted for Kuildeous probably won't move vote
Voltgloss has voted for Kuildeous. Won't move vote without substantial reason
Not Voting: Robz, Bozzball, Jotheonah
Now we can assume Robz wont vote for Robz so he'll jump on Kuildeous when he feels it wont make him look guilty
Now
Robz-2
Kuildeous-3
Bozzball will not vote.
Jotheonah therefore is the deciding vote. But he CAN'T decide to lynch Robz and therefore can ONLY decide to lynch Kuildeous. Lack of a decision will lead to a Kuildeous lynch as a majority vote at the deadline.
SO when one of the undecided votes is Robz, it's not smart to jump on the Robz bandwagon. IF he was trying to stay alive he would start another bandwagon. (Perhaps the Insomniac bandwagon but that wouldn't be started by him and is gaining steam so I suspect he might move his vote to me later once i have votes if he is truly mafia)
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Does everyebody else remember this? K cast his first-ever Day 1 vote for Insomniac.
I remember, but I don't find it probative either way. K expressly said his vote was 100% random. I don't recall there being any voiced suspicion of Insomniac at the time by others, so very little risk of K's vote snowballing. Besides, anyone who bandwagoned on something that was expressly random would invite GREAT suspicion and become a likely target for a Day 1 lynch.
If they're both Mafia, it's about the safest way K could create the illusion of distancing himself from I. If they're not, then K's vote really was random (whether K is Mafia or not) and doesn't provide anything useful for analysis. I just don't see this as a helpful data point.
Re: Volts - Even then, no it wouldn't. It would make the two of us look really really bad tomorrow.
No matter how suspicious the two Mafiosi may look (whoever they are), a 3-2 Town-Mafia split on Day 3 is a better result for them than a 4-1 Town-Mafia split on Day 3. Remember that two Townies would have had to agree with the Mafia's votes and so would look plenty suspicious as well. And the Mafia can muddle the issue by pointing the finger at each other on Day 3 - even going so far as voting for each other - secure in the knowledge that a lynched Mafioso on Day 3 would make the remaining Mafioso significantly less suspicious on Day 4.
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So losing the cop sucks but here is my reply (sorry for the delay in getting back to everyone) This is where I stand, Tables getting killed doesn't change anything for me
Voltgloss - Stats on no lynch first left out jailkeeper/doctor/cop involvement. Claimed he would unvote if someone else voted for
Morgrim, gave Robz888 permission to do so, did not unvote. Retracted the "unhammer" almost immediatly after offering it.
The offering makes him seem non mafia if you ignore the unhammer
Robz888 - For being the last one other than Morgrim to vote for Morgrim, he is the catalyst that pushed Morgrims lynch to the top,
Additionally for someone who always comes out guns blazing he really didnt, I dont think he's trying a new tactic either but
Im not sure hes as much a threat as Voltgloss.
Now I know the accusations are gonna come my way as well for not voting but I would like to preemptively say isn't it a benefit as mafia to vote
early against someone who you know isn't mafia. If I was Mafia I would have known that Morgrim was not and thus jumped on that bandwagon sooner
Vote: Voltgloss
Here's the evidence I was looking for against the I-V pair. Very odd play for Insomniac if they're both mafia. Sigh.
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Heres the reason Kuildeous is innocent. He voted for Robz.
No really lets think about this
I will not move my vote from Robz today. Period
Kuildeous has voted for Robz. Thats 2
Galzria has voted for Kuildeous probably won't move vote
Voltgloss has voted for Kuildeous. Won't move vote without substantial reason
Not Voting: Robz, Bozzball, Jotheonah
Now we can assume Robz wont vote for Robz so he'll jump on Kuildeous when he feels it wont make him look guilty
Now
Robz-2
Kuildeous-3
Bozzball will not vote.
Jotheonah therefore is the deciding vote. But he CAN'T decide to lynch Robz and therefore can ONLY decide to lynch Kuildeous. Lack of a decision will lead to a Kuildeous lynch as a majority vote at the deadline.
SO when one of the undecided votes is Robz, it's not smart to jump on the Robz bandwagon. IF he was trying to stay alive he would start another bandwagon. (Perhaps the Insomniac bandwagon but that wouldn't be started by him and is gaining steam so I suspect he might move his vote to me later once i have votes if he is truly mafia)
Insomniac, I don't think the bolded sentence is correct. Looking at the rules:
Voting, Deadlines, and Player Death:
1. A simple majority (rounded up) of all living members must agree on one person for a lynch to occur prior to deadline.
2. Once you have reached a simple majority no further unvoting will change someone’s fate. Further votes will also be ignored.
3. Once a player is lynched the game enters twilight until I post a death scene; all players including the one who was lynched may continue to post during twilight.
4. Please submit votes as: Vote: PlayerName. Votes will NOT be counted if they are not bold! Obvious abbreviations or nicknames will be counted so long as they are unambiguous.
5. Please submit vote revocations as either Unvote: PlayerName or Unvote. Unvotes are not necessary before changing votes.
6. You may Vote: No Lynch - a simple majority of these vote types are required to send the game to Night phase without a lynch.
7. This game will have 2 week deadlines. If a player or No Lynch does not have a simple majority at deadline, no lynch will occur, and the game will go into night.
8. Once you are killed (either via lynch or night kill) you may no longer post. This means that you do not even get a “Bah” post. The dead in this game are silent.
9. Do not edit or delete posts. We don't want some players having more information than others. If you want to clarify posts, feel free to double post.
The way I read Rules 1 and 7, if no one has 4 votes by the deadline, no one gets lynched. Rule 7 isn't talking about a simple majority of all VOTING members. It's talking about a simple majority of all LIVING members. That means 4 votes.
Axxle, could you let us know which construction of the rules is correct? Thanks.
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Heres the reason Kuildeous is innocent. He voted for Robz.
No really lets think about this
I will not move my vote from Robz today. Period
Kuildeous has voted for Robz. Thats 2
Galzria has voted for Kuildeous probably won't move vote
Voltgloss has voted for Kuildeous. Won't move vote without substantial reason
Not Voting: Robz, Bozzball, Jotheonah
Now we can assume Robz wont vote for Robz so he'll jump on Kuildeous when he feels it wont make him look guilty
Now
Robz-2
Kuildeous-3
Bozzball will not vote.
Jotheonah therefore is the deciding vote. But he CAN'T decide to lynch Robz and therefore can ONLY decide to lynch Kuildeous. Lack of a decision will lead to a Kuildeous lynch as a majority vote at the deadline.
SO when one of the undecided votes is Robz, it's not smart to jump on the Robz bandwagon. IF he was trying to stay alive he would start another bandwagon. (Perhaps the Insomniac bandwagon but that wouldn't be started by him and is gaining steam so I suspect he might move his vote to me later once i have votes if he is truly mafia)
Insomniac, I don't think the bolded sentence is correct. Looking at the rules:
Voting, Deadlines, and Player Death:
1. A simple majority (rounded up) of all living members must agree on one person for a lynch to occur prior to deadline.
2. Once you have reached a simple majority no further unvoting will change someone’s fate. Further votes will also be ignored.
3. Once a player is lynched the game enters twilight until I post a death scene; all players including the one who was lynched may continue to post during twilight.
4. Please submit votes as: Vote: PlayerName. Votes will NOT be counted if they are not bold! Obvious abbreviations or nicknames will be counted so long as they are unambiguous.
5. Please submit vote revocations as either Unvote: PlayerName or Unvote. Unvotes are not necessary before changing votes.
6. You may Vote: No Lynch - a simple majority of these vote types are required to send the game to Night phase without a lynch.
7. This game will have 2 week deadlines. If a player or No Lynch does not have a simple majority at deadline, no lynch will occur, and the game will go into night.
8. Once you are killed (either via lynch or night kill) you may no longer post. This means that you do not even get a “Bah” post. The dead in this game are silent.
9. Do not edit or delete posts. We don't want some players having more information than others. If you want to clarify posts, feel free to double post.
The way I read Rules 1 and 7, if no one has 4 votes by the deadline, no one gets lynched. Rule 7 isn't talking about a simple majority of all VOTING members. It's talking about a simple majority of all LIVING members. That means 4 votes.
Axxle, could you let us know which construction of the rules is correct? Thanks.
That could also be true, I am a new player and could have misunderstood rule 7. I stand by my analysis aside from that point though. Its looking really hard for the town to agree right now, harder still without Bozz
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If a player does not have 4 votes by the deadline there will be no lynch.
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If you were starting to unsuspect Morgrim, then please take back your vote!!!
Robz already made this point later in his post, but I wanted to reiterate that it only takes 4 votes to lynch someone now. Since both Mafia members are still alive, they only need to wait for 2 votes and pile on to ensure the death of another victim. Now, that alone is suspicious, but if they do it and then assassinate someone in the night, then they'll have 40% of the votes in day 3. All it takes in day 3 is for a townie to slip up and cast the wrong vote.
So we need to make sure that no one has 2 votes unless we are absolutely certain that is the direction we want to take.
More points for discussion. As a Mafia, what did Kildeous have to gain by being the one to bring this up on Day 2? If that thought had so far slipped everyone's minds, wouldn't the mafia WANT to let that go on?
Again, I'm not in the K is innocent camp by a longshot. I'm asking all of you who are more sure than I am to convince me of his guilt.
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Jotheonah, I think you're looking to hard for Mafia to be acting Mafia'ish. I've laid out my case as well as I think I can, and if your looking for day 2 actions, just consider how his vote has (or heavy suspicions of who is #1 anyway) have been ALMOST everywhere. And pretty much multiple times. He's been trying to find something that will stick SOMEWHERE. He has been the ultimate in scattered play, something Insomniac is trying to accuse Robz of (and Kuildeous has gone along with).
Also now who the one person Kuildeous has NOT gone after... Is Insomniac. Outside of that very early day 1 attempt at a vote (which by admits never took anyway). Volt has debunked why that is rather irrelevant.
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Galz he accused me on page 19. In the strikeout, which granted probably doesn't mean much. And I dont think hes looking to hard for something to stick, ROBZ is Robz just hasn't laid a vote on it yet because it would look suspicious
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Galz, is Volt totally in the clear in your book at this point? Because he isn't in mine. Not only did he drop our exchange, fade into the background for a bit, and then pop back up to join the Kuildeaus bandwagon once everyone had stopped talking about him, but since I accused him of that he's ignored my accusation. I think he's terrified that if we start taking a close look at him again it will blow his cover. He's hoping we kill K before we get to that.
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If they're both Mafia, it's about the safest way K could create the illusion of distancing himself from I. If they're not, then K's vote really was random (whether K is Mafia or not) and doesn't provide anything useful for analysis. I just don't see this as a helpful data point.
Volt's right. Mine wasn't even the very first vote, so it's not like a bandwagon could have formed against Insomniac.
I appreciate the attention spent on that action, but it makes no case for exoneration.
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Galz he accused me on page 19. In the strikeout, which granted probably doesn't mean much. And I dont think hes looking to hard for something to stick, ROBZ is Robz just hasn't laid a vote on it yet because it would look suspicious
And how can I take his accusation of you seriously when he STRUCK IT ALL OUT, and said nevermind this is irrelevant? All in the same post? There was no accusation there buddy, sorry.
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I agreed it probably wasn't relevant but he left it there in case it was or became relevant, and Jotheonah took it to mean he was urging people to vote for me. So even if its struck out it had an impact.
I did say that it probably doesn't bear much weight though and I stand by this so yes he hasn't gone after me and I haven't gone after him. Hes not that suspicious to me. I'm more suspicious of the people that have pushed him hard and the people I assume will jump on the bandwagon. And I've given my reasons why Robz is my prime suspect most of which is analysis that you werent interested in. You were only interested in what he said not how I interpreted his actions
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Also Robz what happened to your pairing cross-referencing analysis?
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Galz, is Volt totally in the clear in your book at this point? Because he isn't in mine. Not only did he drop our exchange, fade into the background for a bit, and then pop back up to join the Kuildeaus bandwagon once everyone had stopped talking about him, but since I accused him of that he's ignored my accusation. I think he's terrified that if we start taking a close look at him again it will blow his cover. He's hoping we kill K before we get to that.
If you refer to post #476, you'll note he's the only person I really think could be Mafia either way. So no, not at all fully in the clear.
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Insomniac, I don't entirely disagree with your analysis. It isn't irrelevant to me. I just think it's entirely unfair, as what you've been accusing him of has been done by almost everybody, and by some people much more egregiously. So your going after Robz seems very fake and unnatural.
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So what happens if we fail to lynch?
If we lynch:
Day 2
5 Town 2 Mafia
Need 4 to lynch
Day 3:
3 Town 2 Mafia (a) OR
4 Town 1 Mafia (b)
Need 3 to lynch
If we don't lynch:
Day 2
5 Town 2 Mafia
Need 4 to lynch
Day 3
4 Town 2 Mafia (c)
Need 4 to lynch
Which Day 3 scenario is better? Sure, we have more townies in Day 3 than if we lynch incorrectly, but we'll also be down a townie. I'm ruling out Doctor and Jailer at this point. Maybe we have one, which will totally skew the numbers. It's still possible; nobody has accumulated enough votes to claim a role.
So, what is the worst that can happen if we don't lynch? We're going to be down at least one person anyway. One problem I see is that the Mafia gains a vote advantage.
In the case of (a), the town is still in the running only if all three of their numbers (or not, if the Mafia choose to sacrifice) need to agree to lynch someone who is Mafia. This is pretty bad. Any townie who votes for another townie has just lost the game, as the two Mafia members gang up on him. Obviously, we want to avoid (a)
In the case of (b), only three of the four survivors need to correctly lynch the right person. Even if they are wrong, there is a Day 4 to make up for it. Clearly, we want (b).
What about (c)? That scenario pretty much brings us back to Day 2. Everything is still the same except that one townie is dead. While the assassination of a townie can tell tales, I don't know that it'll be that telling. The Mafia can choose to assassinate the person hottest on their trail or the person who is coldest. We'll overanalyze and possibly get things wrong. It'll still be the same as Day 2 in that it takes 4 people to lynch someone. What's different is that there is one less townie to direct the vote. The Mafia shoot from 29% voting power to 33%.
More importantly, what makes (c) worse than (a) is that at least in (a), you have the benefit of reading people's votes in relation to the dead innocent person. We won't have that in (c). It's a continuation of Day 2 without extra information.
So, I view this as an affirmation of what was discussed in Day 1: Not lynching is worse. We have until June 1 to place our four fateful votes. I'll be busy most of next week and won't be able to post much (though I should be able to read). If I do post, it'll likely only to change a vote.
Does that sound right to everyone? I've never played, so I'm only going off of what I feel. If someone has a contradiction to what I posted, I'd like to hear it.
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Yes K. Absolutely. Think of it like this:
No lynch leaves 4 town, 2 mafia. All 4 town must vote together successfully or the game ends after night kill.
If we lynch INCORRECTLY, that leaves 3 town, 2 mafia. All 3 town must vote together successfully or the game is over.
In both cases the game ends on a day 3 mislynch. But getting 4 townies together is much harder than getting 3 together.
Add in the fact that we could lynch correctly today, and we all but MUST lynch somebody.
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OK, rereading everything has certainly not made everything clear. In fact, quite the contrary. But all my most probable pairings at this point except one include Kuildeous. Re-reading has made me more convinced of his guilt, and I think maybe Galzria is right that I'm overthinking with my second-guessing. I especially notice how his day 2 play has consisted of wildly throwing his accusations from one person to the next in a way that lines up with public opinion. And Galzria has convinced me that his vote will be informational.
I'm actually ready to cast vote #3 for K, but I don't want to do so abruptly since it is the penultimate vote that opens up for the hammer, etc. So I'm pulling a Volt here. Unless something drastic happens between now and then, I'm casting a vote for Kuildeous shortly after midnight EST tonight. Even if my vote is the hammer.
In the meantime, let's keep talking it out.
Sidebar: One thing my re-read has made clear is I now agree with assessments about bozzball. Very very high chance he's town. Very low chance he's playing a high-risk mafia silent act game. So for the moment Unvote.
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OK, rereading everything has certainly not made everything clear. In fact, quite the contrary. But all my most probable pairings at this point except one include Kuildeous. Re-reading has made me more convinced of his guilt, and I think maybe Galzria is right that I'm overthinking with my second-guessing. I especially notice how his day 2 play has consisted of wildly throwing his accusations from one person to the next in a way that lines up with public opinion. And Galzria has convinced me that his vote will be informational.
I'm actually ready to cast vote #3 for K, but I don't want to do so abruptly since it is the penultimate vote that opens up for the hammer, etc. So I'm pulling a Volt here. Unless something drastic happens between now and then, I'm casting a vote for Kuildeous shortly after midnight EST tonight. Even if my vote is the hammer.
In the meantime, let's keep talking it out.
Sidebar: One thing my re-read has made clear is I now agree with assessments about bozzball. Very very high chance he's town. Very low chance he's playing a high-risk mafia silent act game. So for the moment Unvote.
This raises my suspicion of you, Volt can pull a Volt because he did it on day 1. You doing it seems like a good way to hedge when you lynch innocent
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Also I'm playing a lot like you on Day 1. I am driving hard because I expect your mafia. I straight up expect to be lynched if you are not.
This is straight up anti-town. It's too late to stake your own life on someone this way. If we lynch Robz and he's town and the next day we lynch you and you're town, then we lose the game. So to say "Lynch him, and if he's not mafia you can lynch me" is bad for the town. You've just described a scenario where we lose the game. And of course, if we really do lynch him and he turns up town, you absolutely won't be starting Day 3 by saying "OK, lynch me." So don't pretend you will.
Recent posts by Insomniac have been so scummy, I'm really coming around to Robz's K-I theory. Actually the sniping between the Morgrim voters makes the MOST sense if you read it thinking all 4 of us are innocent.
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Just kind of curious. I'd like to know how likely you believe that Mafia pairings are. I won't include pairings with my own, as you either suspect me or you don't, so these pairings are going to be very high or very low, depending on your feelings about me. You can include me if you want; I won't mind. I'm also leaving out bozzball, as there is no real information to base your decisions on. Again, you can include that if you want, but I'm more interested in the people who have been vocal in here.
If you'd be kind enough to indulge me, I'd like to see you answer the following question:
On a scale of 1 to 5, where 5 is utterly convinced, I rate each of the possible relationships.
I believe that Voltgloss and jotheonah are partners in crime.
I believe that Galzria and Robz888 are partners in crime.
I believe that Voltgloss and Robz888 are partners in crime.
I believe that jotheonah and Galzria are partners in crime.
I believe that Voltgloss and Galzria are partners in crime.
I believe that Robz888 and Insomniac are partners in crime.
I believe that Voltgloss and Insomniac are partners in crime.
I believe that Galzria and Insomniac are partners in crime.
I believe that jotheonah and Robz888 are partners in crime.
I believe that jotheonah and Insomniac are partners in crime.
I have a hypothesis.
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Also I'm playing a lot like you on Day 1. I am driving hard because I expect your mafia. I straight up expect to be lynched if you are not.
This is straight up anti-town. It's too late to stake your own life on someone this way. If we lynch Robz and he's town and the next day we lynch you and you're town, then we lose the game. So to say "Lynch him, and if he's not mafia you can lynch me" is bad for the town. You've just described a scenario where we lose the game. And of course, if we really do lynch him and he turns up town, you absolutely won't be starting Day 3 by saying "OK, lynch me." So don't pretend you will.
Recent posts by Insomniac have been so scummy, I'm really coming around to Robz's K-I theory. Actually the sniping between the Morgrim voters makes the MOST sense if you read it thinking all 4 of us are innocent.
I PROMISE you I will not only say lynch me I will VOTE for myself if hes not mafia. Yes town lose if this happens but its irrecoverable at this point I will be lynched on day 3 if Im wrong theres no ands ifs about it.
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On a scale of 1 to 5, where 5 is utterly convinced, I rate each of the possible relationships.
I believe that Voltgloss and jotheonah are partners in crime.--------3
I believe that Galzria and Robz888 are partners in crime.------------4
I believe that Voltgloss and Robz888 are partners in crime.----------1
I believe that jotheonah and Galzria are partners in crime.-----------2
I believe that Voltgloss and Galzria are partners in crime.-----------2
I believe that Robz888 and Insomniac are partners in crime.--------1
I believe that Voltgloss and Insomniac are partners in crime.--------1
I believe that Galzria and Insomniac are partners in crime.----------1
I believe that jotheonah and Robz888 are partners in crime.--------3
I believe that jotheonah and Insomniac are partners in crime.-------1
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OK, rereading everything has certainly not made everything clear. In fact, quite the contrary. But all my most probable pairings at this point except one include Kuildeous. Re-reading has made me more convinced of his guilt, and I think maybe Galzria is right that I'm overthinking with my second-guessing. I especially notice how his day 2 play has consisted of wildly throwing his accusations from one person to the next in a way that lines up with public opinion. And Galzria has convinced me that his vote will be informational.
I'm actually ready to cast vote #3 for K, but I don't want to do so abruptly since it is the penultimate vote that opens up for the hammer, etc. So I'm pulling a Volt here. Unless something drastic happens between now and then, I'm casting a vote for Kuildeous shortly after midnight EST tonight. Even if my vote is the hammer.
In the meantime, let's keep talking it out.
Sidebar: One thing my re-read has made clear is I now agree with assessments about bozzball. Very very high chance he's town. Very low chance he's playing a high-risk mafia silent act game. So for the moment Unvote.
This raises my suspicion of you, Volt can pull a Volt because he did it on day 1. You doing it seems like a good way to hedge when you lynch innocent
I don't buy that at all. Consider that all of the accusations against me have been based on similar evidence, i.e. that I appeared to hedge immediately before the Morgrim vote. If I were mafia and that hedge were real, I pretty much straight-up proved it didn't work. So why in God's nam would I attempt exactly the same thing on Day 2?
People can choose to read my hesitance in voting as a townie being careful not to mislynch or as a mafioso establishing plausible deniability. But if it's number 2 than I must think you all extraordinarily gullible at this point.
Add to that that this particular move makes no sense as a hedge. What kind of defense would you expect out of me Day 2? "Oh, I voted for him, but I can't be the mafia because I waited an arbitrary number of hours first!" I doubt that will convince anybody.
I don't think anyone but you is going to see this as anything other than giving the town plenty of time to talk.
Also I'm playing a lot like you on Day 1. I am driving hard because I expect your mafia. I straight up expect to be lynched if you are not.
This is straight up anti-town. It's too late to stake your own life on someone this way. If we lynch Robz and he's town and the next day we lynch you and you're town, then we lose the game. So to say "Lynch him, and if he's not mafia you can lynch me" is bad for the town. You've just described a scenario where we lose the game. And of course, if we really do lynch him and he turns up town, you absolutely won't be starting Day 3 by saying "OK, lynch me." So don't pretend you will.
Recent posts by Insomniac have been so scummy, I'm really coming around to Robz's K-I theory. Actually the sniping between the Morgrim voters makes the MOST sense if you read it thinking all 4 of us are innocent.
I PROMISE you I will not only say lynch me I will VOTE for myself if hes not mafia. Yes town lose if this happens but its irrecoverable at this point I will be lynched on day 3 if Im wrong theres no ands ifs about it.
Do people not agree this is hideously anti-town?
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Also Robz what happened to your pairing cross-referencing analysis?
My analysis was so similar to Volt's that I didn't bother with it. But here is how I would rank my suspicions based on people.
High: Kuildeous, Insomniac
Moderate: Jtheonah, Galzria
Low: Voltgloss
None: Bozzball
If I eliminate the people who I have low suspicion for, and I eliminate pairings where there have been recent accusations and voting and tension, I'm left with K-I as the run away most suspicious pairing left. G-J is something to be aware of, they seem so on the same page, but... Volt and me are like that, so I know it can happen organically. There's also J-I and G-I, but.... J-I are fighting a bit now. Really, I'm left with K-I. If I throw Volt back into the mix there are more possible pairings (Bozzball, too), but J-I is the big one.
OK, rereading everything has certainly not made everything clear. In fact, quite the contrary. But all my most probable pairings at this point except one include Kuildeous. Re-reading has made me more convinced of his guilt, and I think maybe Galzria is right that I'm overthinking with my second-guessing. I especially notice how his day 2 play has consisted of wildly throwing his accusations from one person to the next in a way that lines up with public opinion. And Galzria has convinced me that his vote will be informational.
I'm actually ready to cast vote #3 for K, but I don't want to do so abruptly since it is the penultimate vote that opens up for the hammer, etc. So I'm pulling a Volt here. Unless something drastic happens between now and then, I'm casting a vote for Kuildeous shortly after midnight EST tonight. Even if my vote is the hammer.
In the meantime, let's keep talking it out.
Sidebar: One thing my re-read has made clear is I now agree with assessments about bozzball. Very very high chance he's town. Very low chance he's playing a high-risk mafia silent act game. So for the moment Unvote.
This raises my suspicion of you, Volt can pull a Volt because he did it on day 1. You doing it seems like a good way to hedge when you lynch innocent
Why is J doing this suspicious, like at all? Seems perfectly reasonable to me.
It's stuff like this that makes me really suspect Insomniac and Kuildeous. Their reasoning just doesn't seem as sound as other players. Like, I've been suspicious of J. I have some worries that I have brought up before. But, this point that Insomniac raised is just not a suspicion point at all. I don't see how it is. And as I've said before he keeps bringing up points against me that aren't good arguments. His main problem with me is that I cast a wide web of suspicion, but I'm pretty sure J has cast at least a comparable web, and Galzria a bigger web, and Kuildeous a MUCH bigger web. So it seems to me like he keeps coming up with distortions of the truth, which is what the mafia have to do, because they are trying to convince us of something that is wrong (whereas townspeople are trying to convince each other of something they're not sure about).
And I'm more concerned about the wide web of suspicions when there aren't good explanations underlying them, and Kuildeous's aren't so great. This is not to say that he doesn't make good points at all. I like his analysis of needing to lynch, what happens on each day, etc. But, you know it's easy to score points with posts like that. And it really looks to me like Insomniac is trying to bail him out because they are both mafia.
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0 I believe that Voltgloss and jotheonah are partners in crime.
0 I believe that Galzria and Robz888 are partners in crime.
2 I believe that Voltgloss and Robz888 are partners in crime.
0 I believe that jotheonah and Galzria are partners in crime.
0 I believe that Voltgloss and Galzria are partners in crime.
3 I believe that Robz888 and Insomniac are partners in crime.
3 I believe that Voltgloss and Insomniac are partners in crime.
1 I believe that Galzria and Insomniac are partners in crime.
0 I believe that jotheonah and Robz888 are partners in crime.
0 I believe that jotheonah and Insomniac are partners in crime.
You'll notice I didn't use 4 or 5, since that is my level of confidence that whatever pairing exists includes you.
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So Robz, just out of curiosity, when can we expect your words to be backed up with a vote?
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You'll notice I didn't use 4 or 5, since that is my level of confidence that whatever pairing exists includes you.
Heh, fair enough.
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So Robz, just out of curiosity, when can we expect your words to be backed up with a vote?
Insomniac's recent posts have gone a long way toward clearing up any remaining doubt I had that he and K are the mafia. I'll cast my vote in a few hours, after I review everything again.
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At this point I HOPE I get lynched so that you can see rob questioning my logic is because he is mafia. I only ask that if I get lynched, Robz is next. He started the train against me and K, has stayed on it. Has pointed fingers everywhere. And just been in general really scummy. Once Axxle confirms I am a Vanilla Townie you'll see my analysis in a new light.
I would think of voting for myself but it deprives you of important information that you'll need going forward today.
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With all the vote changes happening, what is the current vote count? Axxle?
If someone else has been taking score, I'll accept that too.
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Robz (2) - Kuildeous, Insomniac
Kuildeous (2) - Voltgloss, Galzria
Not Voting (3) - Jotheonah, Robz888, Bozzball
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Robz (2) - Kuildeous, Insomniac
Kuildeous (2) - Voltgloss, Galzria
Not Voting (3) - Jotheonah, Robz888, Bozzball
This is correct, the only thing that changed since last count is J Unvoted.
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I had a potentially game-changing thought, but I'm not at a place to flesh it out. Give me just a couple of hours, if you would.
unvote
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I'm always willing to listen. UNVOTE. I'll keep it down until late tonight, or I've heard you're thoughts at least.
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Your*, not You're.
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Vote: Kuildeous
The firmest idea I have at this point is that Insomniac and Kuildeous are a mafiia team. They are the only people (and this is more true of Insomnia really) consistently saying things I don't think are helpful or even true. They have also been neither working together (until now, with their alliance exposed) nor accusatory of each other, and... that's pretty damming in my view. They sort of ignored each other the way you would expect mafia to do. But when push came to shove today, they really joined up in an incriminating way.
If I had to choose just 1 person, I probably suspect Insomnia like 5% more than Kuildeous. But I suspect them as a pair more than I suspect either individually. And frankly, I'm exhausted of this discussion and don't think I could convince the other people who also suspect the K-I pairing that we should go first for Insomniac. So this is a really a vote for K-I as a team. We will see if it's correct. I suspect it is, but I've been wrong before!
If this ends up being the pairing, let me just say that you both played a good mafia game! Look forward to discussing your tactics with you.
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Well, I didn't see Kuildeous's plea before I posted.
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Uh, UNVOTE, I guess?
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Vote Count 2-5
Kuildeous (1) - Voltgloss
Robz888 (1) - Insomniac
Not Voting (5) - Robz888, bozzball, jotheonah, Kuildeous, Galzria
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline: Friday, June 1, 2012 6pm PDT
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To be clear Robz, I didn't unvote because of misgivings, but just because I respect all of our players enough to hear them out. My vote is still going to K (barring something massive), but I want him to have the time to speak.
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Just made it through the many posts made since I was last in a position to chime in. That means I just saw Kuildeous's request for more time. I have no problem with that; it's in the spirit of my original voting conditionals. So, UNVOTE, for the same reasons as Galzria stated (and with the same caveat my vote is going back to Kuildeous after he's had his say, barring something truly game-changing).
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Thank you gents. I was in a dead zone and was frantically finding a signal so I could send that message. I'd hate to have the hammer drop before my big reveal.
First off, are you 100% of the person you're voting for? I know I'm not. The only person who is 100% is Galzria, and that's fine. Of course, the nature of the game is that you pretty much have to vote if you're not 100%, or the Mafia wins. After I've said my piece, you are welcome to follow your original votes.
We have a wild card: bozzball. Sure, we can ignore him because he simply doesn't have the time to participate. That's great. But even though bozzball is unable to participate, his presence is damaging to the town. How do I mean? Let me break it down by scenarios.
Scenario 1: bozzball is Mafia
If this is true, then he's doing a great job. His partner is calling the shots and doing a bang-up job. What are the consequences of voting/not voting?
Scenario 1a: We lynch bozzball
Hooray, score one for the team! We are now 4 vs 1. We can go back to our original suspicions in Day 3.
Scenario 1b: We lynch bozzball's partner
Hooray again! We are now 4 vs 1. Although, seeing our history, it's going to be 4 vs 0, as we ignore bozzball and keep lynching ourselves until someone decides to hit him. If it ever gets down to bozzball and one other person, then he wins.
Scenario 1c: We lynch a townie
Boo! So we are 3 vs 2. We may be able to mount an assault on bozzball's partner and take him down. Then it'd be 2 vs 1. Sure, bozzball isn't playing that much, but he has a 48-hour window to mail his target. Hell, he doesn't even have to do that. If Axxle doesn't hear from the Mafia, then someone randomly gets assassinated. It also wouldn't take much for their nighttime conversation to consist of bozzball's partner mailing him and saying, "Hey, dude, I know you don't have much time, but when you next get on, could you vote on the first person who has a vote, and I'll follow suit?" There is a strategy in letting that happen, but it's a risky strategy.
Scenario 2: bozzball is a townie
Scenario 2a: We lynch bozzball
Okay, this sucks, and we find ourselves in that unenviable 3 vs 2 situation. Boo! But at least we can continue.
Scenario 2b: We lynch a Mafia member
Excellent! We are now 4 vs 1. If bozzball cannot participate, then we at least can get by with 3 votes to lynch the final Mafia member. Good times.
Scenario 2c: We lynch a townie
This is why I asked if you are 100% certain of your target. If you are wrong, then this is a bad situation. We find ourselves in the 3 vs 2 situation. That's a hard position to be in, but it's even harder if bozzball doesn't have the time to follow along. Without bozzball, you will never get the required 3 votes to lynch a Mafia member. Now, bozzball could still come in and vote to end it all. How does he know if he's voting with the townies or the Mafia? Will he read the hundreds and hundreds of posts to make an informed choice? Unless he has a free day and wishes to waste it reading all this, I'm going to guess no. You didn't like my random vote in Day 1? Imagine a random vote in the very crucial Day 3. This scenario is very bad for the town.
So, I urge you to vote bozzball (not using the notation just yet). Not because you think he's guilty or because you want to draw attention away from yourself (trust me; that attention will still be there in Day 3), but because there's a chance that the town will be in an unwinnable state if you don't. It's a matter of being practical.
After you vote for bozzball, feel free to vote for me in Day 3 all you want. The town doesn't deserve to lose at this stage of the game.
I won't vote just yet. I'll give you a chance to digest this and prove me wrong.
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If Axxle doesn't hear from the Mafia, then someone randomly gets assassinated.
General Gameplay and Etiquette:
3. If you have a role with a Night action your choices are due to me by the posted deadline. If I do not receive your choice via PM by the posted deadline you will forfeit your actions. In case of multiple submissions, the last valid one before the deadline will be used.
I consider Night Kills to be Night actions (otherwise they aren't blocked by Jailers). If the mafia fails to PM me, or choose not to kill anyone no player is night killed
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You do make a good point. While I have 0% conviction that Bozball is Mafia (read: 100% conviction he is town), I could follow this logic. I will wait to reinstate my vote until others have chimed in.
If I followed this though, and we lynch town, I would want it to be with the conviction of everyone here. Mafia included. (As you point out, this is actually bad for them, as they throw away a pawn that protects them)
To be clear then: I agree with your math and logic. Even if you are Mafia, and he is town (as I believe), and giving you a free kill now does TECHNICALLY help you, I have confidence that if we lose a town day 2, and night 2, the three remaining town will know where the Mafia is.
I don't LIKE sacrificing a townie, but given our situation, I can understand the case for it.
Thoughts from the gallery?
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I consider Night Kills to be Night actions (otherwise they aren't blocked by Jailers). If the mafia fails to PM me, or choose not to kill anyone no player is night killed
[/color]
Ah, I did not realize that this rule is different from the Mafia I game. Okay, scratch that.
I'll re-evaluate what I posted, but I think we can go back to the status quo.
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Scenario 1b: We lynch bozzball's partner
Hooray again! We are now 4 vs 1. Although, seeing our history, it's going to be 4 vs 0, as we ignore bozzball and keep lynching ourselves until someone decides to hit him. If it ever gets down to bozzball and one other person, then he wins.
Scenario 1c: We lynch a townie
Boo! So we are 3 vs 2. We may be able to mount an assault on bozzball's partner and take him down. Then it'd be 2 vs 1. Sure, bozzball isn't playing that much, but he has a 48-hour window to mail his target. Hell, he doesn't even have to do that. If Axxle doesn't hear from the Mafia, then someone randomly gets assassinated. It also wouldn't take much for their nighttime conversation to consist of bozzball's partner mailing him and saying, "Hey, dude, I know you don't have much time, but when you next get on, could you vote on the first person who has a vote, and I'll follow suit?" There is a strategy in letting that happen, but it's a risky strategy.
Actually, the different rule doesn't really change that much. It changes these two scenarios. If we get down to only one Mafia member, and he hasn't killed anyone in three days, we can probably safely lynch bozzball. Although, it's still likely that bozzball (as a lone Mafia) can still log on to send a kill.
So, hanging bozzball is back on the menu.
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I consider Night Kills to be Night actions (otherwise they aren't blocked by Jailers). If the mafia fails to PM me, or choose not to kill anyone no player is night killed
[/color]
Ah, I did not realize that this rule is different from the Mafia I game. Okay, scratch that.
I'll re-evaluate what I posted, but I think we can go back to the status quo.
Actually, and correct me if I'm wrong, it shouldn't change anything. Given the only situation it mattered was 1c:
... nvm - See you got that already.
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Kuildeous, as always you deliver a well-written, well-thought-out, and eloquent argument.
That I don't buy for a second.
He is asking us to lynch someone who is almost certainly Town.
If bozzball's inactivity suggested he was Mafia, sure, there'd be a solid argument for lynching him. But Kuildeous offers no evidence to suggest that. Heck, he's himself said before - as all of us have - that the far more likely scenario is that bozzball is Town. Nothing in his recent post changes that. So Scenario 2 is far, far more likely. Given that Kuildeous's main argument is "you don't want Scenario 2c," I think he recognizes this - and recognizes we recognize this. After all, we already have recognized it.
So bozzball is almost certainly Town. Let's look again at what Kuildeous is asking us to do.
He is asking us to lynch someone who is almost certainly Town.
He claims this is because, if we lynch the wrong non-bozzball person, the town could be in an "unwinnable state" on Day 3 because "[w]ithout bozzball, you will never get the required 3 votes to lynch a Mafia member." But that's simply false. If bozzball can't participate, Axxle will have him replaced. It's right there in the rules.
As an alternative, he proposed the specter of bozzball making a random choice. But everything we've seen to date from bozzball is that the very last thing bozzball would do is make a random choice! He won't act without digesting all the evidence, and hasn't acted to date because he hasn't had time to do so. Why would he make a complete 180 in his real-life personality to suddenly throw darts randomly when it matters the most? He wouldn't.
So, if we reach Scenario 2c, either bozzball steps down (or is forcibly stepped down) and someone takes his place - probably someone who's been following along all through the game and itching to make their analysis known - OR bozzball finally digs his teeth into everything that's passed and finds enough evidence from which to ground his vote. There is NOTHING wrong with either of these scenarios.
So let's look AGAIN at what Kuildeous is asking us to do.
He is asking us to lynch someone who is almost certainly Town.
You may have noticed I King's Courted this sentence. And the reason should be obvious. Kuildeous is, transparently, in the name of faux "practicality," telling us to forego lynching him or Insomniac - the most likely Mafia suspects among us - in favor of lynching an almost certain Townie.
This is not Town behavior.
This is Mafia behavior.
Scenario 2c: We lynch a townie
This is why I asked if you are 100% certain of your target. If you are wrong, then this is a bad situation.
I freely admit, I wasn't 100% certain you were Mafia. I was at 85%, per my last big post.
Then I read your post. Telling us to lynch someone who is almost certainly Town.
I'm 100% certain now.
VOTE: KUILDEOUS
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Addendum:
I expect that Kuildeous's post has a second phase to it that we haven't yet seen.
Specifically, attacking one of the people who rejects his analysis, by arguing that person is Mafia in cahoots with bozzball. (Or maybe Kuildeous's partner in crime will do such attacking.)
If this happens, ask yourself these questions:
1) What evidence is there that bozzball is Mafia?
2) What evidence is there that Kuildeous is Mafia?
And any uncertainty should be quickly resolved.
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To be fair, I said I would only consider this if all active players were on board. It is a risky move, lynching a known town member, and certainly one we shouldn't be forced to make.
With that said. Voltgloss is not on board. So I go back to my regular scheduled program.
]VOTE: KUILDEOUS]
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1) What evidence is there that bozzball is Mafia?
2) What evidence is there that Kuildeous is Mafia?
The correct answer to both of these questions is zero. You're still speculating about me just like I'm speculating about all of you.
If you vote for me, you run the risk of running that scenario which dooms the town. Hell, this scenario is possible even if Insomniac and I are wrong about Robz888.
Besides, if bozzball is indeed a townie, then you can still lynch me on Day 3. That still won't change. I guarantee you'll have all the votes you need to kill me in Day 4.
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I feel like Cassandra.
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I expected that someone would reject the idea, but I did not expect Voltgloss--someone who is very articulate and thoughtful--to ignore the facts. If you are wrong about me (and I assure you that you are), then you're going to have a rough time nabbing the Mafia members in Day 3, especially if bozzball is indeed a townie.
So, I have to conclude that Voltgloss is indeed Mafia.
But I'm not 100%. It's possible that he has been blinded and thinks that I am trying to weasel a vote away from me. It's possible that he doesn't realize that he can still lynch me in Day 3. So, because I'm only 99% certain of Voltgloss's involvement, I will stay the course and vote: bozzball.
If I'm still alive in Day 3, I will most assuredly vote for Voltgloss next.
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Vote Count 2-6
Kuildeous (2) - Voltgloss, Galzria
Robz888 (1) - Insomniac
bozzball (1) - Kuildeous
Not Voting (3) - Robz888, bozzball, jotheonah
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline: Friday, June 1, 2012 6pm PDT
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We want to kill the people we think are the mafia, not the people we think are the town. So your new analysis, Kuildeous, doesn't sway me in the least bit. I think Bozzball's lack of involvement suggests he is town, not mafia. If I am absolutely stumped, or see some evidence to the contrary, I will have to reconsider that. But until then, I am still most confident that you and Insomniac are the mafia.
Vote: Kuildeous
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He is asking us to lynch someone who is almost certainly Town.
There is a 71% chance of bozzball being town. More than 50% certainly, but I don't know if I'd say almost certainly. Depends on your definition of "almost certainly."
He claims this is because, if we lynch the wrong non-bozzball person, the town could be in an "unwinnable state" on Day 3 because "[w]ithout bozzball, you will never get the required 3 votes to lynch a Mafia member." But that's simply false. If bozzball can't participate, Axxle will have him replaced. It's right there in the rules.
Bozzball has not requested that. He peeps in just long enough to say something and avoid being inactive. He probably doesn't want to cripple his team by leaving. Axxle will only replace him if he goes, at a minimum, 96 hours without responding. He makes his quota.
If someone replaces him, then that's great, but that's up to bozzball. And that person will have to read through all those posts. That's more likely than bozzball having time to review them, but that person will have no history for us to judge, so he's just as unknown as bozzball is.
He won't act without digesting all the evidence, and hasn't acted to date because he hasn't had time to do so.
That's true. That leads to the next danger. If he is a townie, and he doesn't vote at all, then the Mafia wins. There is no lynch since all three townies cannot agree on who to lynch. That night, the Mafia assassinates someone and wins.
So, if we reach Scenario 2c, either bozzball steps down (or is forcibly stepped down) and someone takes his place - probably someone who's been following along all through the game and itching to make their analysis known - OR bozzball finally digs his teeth into everything that's passed and finds enough evidence from which to ground his vote. There is NOTHING wrong with either of these scenarios.
There is indeed nothing wrong with either scenario...if they happen. You say that as if those are the only two outcomes. They aren't. Bozzball could continue to sit in his seat.
So let's look AGAIN at what Kuildeous is asking us to do.
He is asking us to lynch someone who is almost certainly Town.
Who is just as almost certainly Town as any one of you. I'm not entirely sure why some people are so certain that he is Town. Sure, there's a 71% chance of that being the case, but if you refuse to vote for him based on that, then you might as well refuse to vote for anyone for the same reason.
You may have noticed I King's Courted this sentence. And the reason should be obvious. Kuildeous is, transparently, in the name of faux "practicality," telling us to forego lynching him or Insomniac
It was a proposal, and I promised to hear people out first. I jumped the gun because Voltgloss took me by surprise. So I will unvote again so I can hear the others' opposition.
Pre-edit: Okay, why does his lack of involvement suggest Town? I am really missing out on something. I know that odds are tilted more toward Town, but there is no evidence to indicate that he is Town. There is no behavior to indicate that he is Town or Mafia. I can appreciate that you want to protect him because he hasn't had much of a chance to get involved, but there is still no evidence to indicate that he is Town.
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0 I believe that Voltgloss and jotheonah are partners in crime.
0 I believe that Galzria and Robz888 are partners in crime.
2 I believe that Voltgloss and Robz888 are partners in crime.
0 I believe that jotheonah and Galzria are partners in crime.
0 I believe that Voltgloss and Galzria are partners in crime.
3 I believe that Robz888 and Insomniac are partners in crime.
3 I believe that Voltgloss and Insomniac are partners in crime.
1 I believe that Galzria and Insomniac are partners in crime.
0 I believe that jotheonah and Robz888 are partners in crime.
0 I believe that jotheonah and Insomniac are partners in crime.
I did not want to leave this unfinished. I believe only Insomniac posted his list. I hope that the ones we haven't heard from chose instead to compile the list in their heads. That is fine.
If you do not have any 5s in that list, then take a moment and think about what this means for bozzball.
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Ok, I said I would post now with my vote unless something drastic happened to convince my K isn't mafia. All that's happened is a last-ditch effort by Kuildeous to stay our vote against him. I have to admit, it was an original effort. Like Volt, it convinced me not at all and really made me even surer of his guilt. As an added bonus, Volt's refusal to buy it clears his name for me that much more (assuming we're right).
Without further ado, I will happily throw the hammer.
Vote: Kuildeous
Well played, sir. Well played.
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As I write this, I hear the angry mob approaching. Their torches cast eerie shadows in my bedroom. They shout my name, and I am terrified. I tried to warn them, the blind, mad fools!
No, not fools. They acted their conscience. Someone has been pulling strings, and two of our own have died. Soon I will join them. Most likely, a fourth will be killed in his sleep. Oh, they’ll maintain a vigilant guard, but they don’t trust each other. Someone will collapse alone into a deep slumber and never wake up.
Though they would not listen to me in life, perhaps they will listen to me in death. Maybe there is some posthumous wisdom they can glean. Then again, what if the Mafia played me as easily as they played my killers? Are my own observations free from delusions? If we cannot save us from ourselves, then maybe we all deserve to die. Still, there is a glimmer of hope, and I hope that my sacrifice can shed illumination on the truth.
I leave one final thought. Those who rejected the sacrifice may indeed not be to blame. Indeed, the Mafia would know whether the sacrifice was truly innocent or not.
The cacophony at the door is deafening. Wait up, pappy! I’m a-comin’!
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Vote Count 2-6
Kuildeous (4) - Voltgloss, Galzria, Robz888, jotheonah
Robz888 (1) - Insomniac
bozzball (1) - Kuildeous
Not Voting (1) - bozzball
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch
Deadline: Friday, June 1, 2012 6pm PDT
Kuildeous can hear the cracking of the door as he hastily scribbles down the last words he'll ever write. As Voltglass busts down the door Kuildeous turns to face his accusers.
"We know what done did to Tables!" exclaims Galzria.
"You deserve exactly what you did to him," says Robz888.
Jotheonah doesn't even say a word as he pierces Kuildeous with his pitchfork.
Still clutching his ink-smeared and, now, bloodstained letter in his hand, Kuildeous collapses. As the living members of the town search the room they find nothing to implicate him as being Mafia. After finding the letter (see Kuildeous's post above) only one conclusion can be reached: Kuildeous was a Vanilla Townie.
Kuildeous, a Vanilla Townie, has been lynched on Day 2
Night 2 starts now. The deadline for night actions is May 25th, 2012 at 11:59pm PDT (UTC -7)
The thread is now LOCKED
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If anyone not in the game (including dead players) want to comment on it, Kuildeous created a Quicktopic. Send him or me a PM and we'll send you a link.
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Sorry for delay on vacation. Bozzball the vanilla townie is dead. Day 3 begins
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Anyone willing to believe me on the Robz train yet. Day 2 he again was the penultimate vote for yet another vanilla townie. Pointed his fingers in just enough places to get people to look somewhere that wasn't him. I'm still 100% sure that Robz is Mafia.
Vote: Robz888
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Anyone willing to believe me on the Robz train yet. Day 2 he again was the penultimate vote for yet another vanilla townie. Pointed his fingers in just enough places to get people to look somewhere that wasn't him. I'm still 100% sure that Robz is Mafia.
Vote: Robz888
I'm certainly willing to consider it. I'm looking at a lot of things though. There was a LOT of information to be gleaned from that last round. In particular, I want to look at Kuildeous's actions and thoughts, because throughout the whole thing he was the only one who KNEW he was innocent.
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I am NOT however, going to cast my vote anywhere right now. With 2 Mafia out there, the LAST thing I want is to set up a 1-2 instant knockout punch.
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Alright, here's the thing. I'm of two minds here:
I've never really bought Insomniac's argument about Robz. However I won't deny that there MIGHT be something there, even if I don't agree with him. He IS right on at least the count that Robz has essentially cast the killing vote both times. (Although to be fair, there was no way for Robz to know that his vote on Morgrim would be the deciding one). On the other hand, Robz HAS essentially laid out why he was casting his vote each time, AND WHEN. The fact that others voted in BEFORE him can hardly be his fault. Still, he may be Mafia. 75% chance.
I take HUGE issue with someone coming out day 3 and firing off a vote however. We've already made 2 mistakes, and we have NO more room to be wrong. There just seems to me to be NO good town reason to put ourselves at that risk. Reminder: WE NEED ALL THREE TOWN TO VOTE CORRECTLY TOGETHER. Even ONE miscast vote, and we lose. Insomniac's vote reads VERY bad town move to me.
Now, I'm willing to bet that right now, Robz cannot be hammered. This is because 1 of 2 things is true:
Robz is Mafia, and his partner won't vote for him unless there is no hope and he knows Robz is going down.
Insomniac is Mafia, and they need one town member to support his claim before dropping the hammer.
So I *implore* you all NOT to vote behind Insomniac yet. Maybe that's where we want to go and roll the dice. But given we NOW KNOW that Robz is Mafia or Insomniac is, I think we should take a LONG hard look at how each of them has acted throughout the first 2 days before we make our decision. Win/Lose hangs on that vote.
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Anyone willing to believe me on the Robz train yet. Day 2 he again was the penultimate vote for yet another vanilla townie. Pointed his fingers in just enough places to get people to look somewhere that wasn't him. I'm still 100% sure that Robz is Mafia.
Vote: Robz888
This is nonsense, and totally expected. Of course I expected Insomniac to keep up his campaign against me from last round. I expect him to keep saying stupid things about me--that I point fingers too much (moreso than Galzria? moreso than J? moreso than K who we wrongly lynched yesterday? clearly this is no indication of guilt, and at least half the players have done it more than me.)
One of the reasons that Insomniac remains my principal suspect--and though I did vote for K yesterday, I indicated it was a toss up for me which one was more mafia than the other (I suspected they were mafia as a pair, and yes, was wrong about that clearly)--is that he keeps bringing up arguments against me that don't make sense, namely this argument that I am going around accusing everyone. It's nuts; I don't do that more than other people. I can't for the life of me figure out why he wouldn't be accusing J or Galz of the same thing (well, the likely reason is one of them is mafia with him, if he is mafia).
I am not a member of the mafia, so Insomniac is wrong about me. I don't really begrudge him that; I've been wrong about lots of people, and it's pretty hard to tell who is mafia. But I do begrudge him coming up with reasons that don't make any sense, and then parading this around as a certainty that I'm mafia. And VOTING FOR ME? That's insane. Imagine the quite possible scenario that neither of is mafia. The 2 mafia could drop the hammer on me right now and boom, they win the game.
Insomniac's moves are incriminating and logically-faulty, and reckless. But see we absolutely must make the right kill here, I will not cast a vote for him---that would be insane. The fact that he cast a vote for me actually makes me a little less suspicious of him, because it's so suicidally stupid.
Alright, here's the thing. I'm of two minds here:
I've never really bought Insomniac's argument about Robz. However I won't deny that there MIGHT be something there, even if I don't agree with him. He IS right on at least the count that Robz has essentially cast the killing vote both times. (Although to be fair, there was no way for Robz to know that his vote on Morgrim would be the deciding one). On the other hand, Robz HAS essentially laid out why he was casting his vote each time, AND WHEN. The fact that others voted in BEFORE him can hardly be his fault. Still, he may be Mafia. 75% chance.
I agree with some of this. And I agree that I was the principal motivator behind the Morgrim vote (though NOT the kill voter! Morgrim himself did that!). But the K kill was proposed by Galz and carried out by J, so that one really isn't on me.
So I *implore* you all NOT to vote behind Insomniac yet. Maybe that's where we want to go and roll the dice. But given we NOW KNOW that Robz is Mafia or Insomniac is, I think we should take a LONG hard look at how each of them has acted throughout the first 2 days before we make our decision. Win/Lose hangs on that vote.
This is absolutely wrong, and dangerous thinking. We do NOT know that either I or Insomniac are the mafia. It's true that I most strongly suspect Insomniac, and Insomniac is 'certain' about me. But we could both be wrong. And, look, this gets to my second point... the most likely mafia pairing at this point seems to me to be Galz and J. They have worked in tandem, sometimes subtly, sometimes overtly. But often in tandem.
It's true that individually I suspect Insomniac more than either of them--and I suppose his mafia teammate could be anybody other than me, but probably J, I guess? And I know it's not going to win me many friends to start suggesting people other than Insomniac. Like, Galz and J, I hope you don't say "ah, Robz suspects us, we will join Insomniac now!" Because I'm not sure at all about anybody, I'm just trying to figure out who the 2 mafia are. It's baffling that we still have 2.
The thing I am most sure about is that Voltgloss is town. I've just gotten such a strong town vibe from him. I know the rest of you find him suspicious, right? Well, I don't.
So, here's how I feel at this point: (No percentages! If I was 75% sure of ANYTHING, I would vote immediately. That's a crazy high certainty level that Galz has, but it's at least consistent with other ridiculous numbers he has tossed out throughout the game)
Individually:
Insomniac
Jtheonah
Galzria
Voltgloss
Pairs:
G and J
I and J
I and G
Much Less Likely:
I and V
V and G
V and J
I must say one more thing about Insomniac. I still find it difficult to believe that both mafia voted for Morgrim in the first round, because it was unnecessary to do so. Insomniac is the last surviving non-Morgrim voter.
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Okay, I just did some more thinking about whether this is the right time for this. I think it is. Soon it will be too late. ... Insomniac, you should really take that vote off me. Really, really. And, I can back that up.
I AM THE DOCTOR
There was every reason to stay silent up to now. I can't save myself, so a reveal means I die (I've known that since Tables turned up as a dead cop, eliminating the possibility of Jailkeeper.) But now there are 5 people left: I, G, J, V, R. We lose if we do not lynch a mafia this round, because there will be 2 town and 2 mafia and we lose by definition. So we'll never even get to the point tonight where my power helps unless we do this right. (If we do kill the correct person today, this means I die tonight--which is bad, but it's better than losing right now, which I suspect is likely to happen unless I come out, and could in fact still happen because we don't know for sure who is mafia, just that it isn't me.)
For clarification, I saved Kuildeous during the first night. I saved Voltgloss last night.
So, Insomniac, please remove that vote. Seriously, if G and J are the mafia, we could lose instantly. You are really, really, really suspicious to me, but let's not let this feud accidentally end the game.
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Wow, there are some real whoppers in Robz's post. Alright, let me start from the top:
Anyone willing to believe me on the Robz train yet. Day 2 he again was the penultimate vote for yet another vanilla townie. Pointed his fingers in just enough places to get people to look somewhere that wasn't him. I'm still 100% sure that Robz is Mafia.
Vote: Robz888
This is nonsense, and totally expected. Of course I expected Insomniac to keep up his campaign against me from last round. I expect him to keep saying stupid things about me--that I point fingers too much (moreso than Galzria? moreso than J? moreso than K who we wrongly lynched yesterday? clearly this is no indication of guilt, and at least half the players have done it more than me.)
One of the reasons that Insomniac remains my principal suspect--and though I did vote for K yesterday, I indicated it was a toss up for me which one was more mafia than the other (I suspected they were mafia as a pair, and yes, was wrong about that clearly)--is that he keeps bringing up arguments against me that don't make sense, namely this argument that I am going around accusing everyone. It's nuts; I don't do that more than other people. I can't for the life of me figure out why he wouldn't be accusing J or Galz of the same thing (well, the likely reason is one of them is mafia with him, if he is mafia).
This is absolutely how I see things. Look, I'm as guilty as the next person when it comes to a LOT of things this game. I haven't pointed my finger around wildly quite the way that Robz suggests (he has more or less ignored anything I've said regarding the first round, and why my votes went the way they did), but I HAVE voted for 2 innocent people. And I've done it as vocally or more so than anybody else. How in the WORLD can Insomniac make a consistent case, beating the same drum over and over, about Robz... that's 1000% times more applicable to me?
Insomniac's case against Robz just doesn't seem to me to be driven by anything substantial. HOWEVER, I CANNOT in good conscience rule out the idea that he might be right. Certainly I have NOT been so far, so... What can I say? I don't like his case. I think it's faulty and almost all of us who are left fit the bill.
I am not a member of the mafia, so Insomniac is wrong about me.
Absolutely not convinced, sorry.
And VOTING FOR ME? That's insane. Imagine the quite possible scenario that neither of is mafia. The 2 mafia could drop the hammer on me right now and boom, they win the game.
First part is absolutely spot on. It's STUPID to vote for anybody at this point. Second part, WAY off the mark. Insomniac, despite his current vote status, is not stupid himself. Coming out of the gates firing can ONLY mean 1 of 2 things: He's Mafia trying to get just ONE person to bandwagon, and his partner slams the door. OR, You're Mafia, and he knows his vote can't be hammered into a town loss.
One thing I learned from the Kuildeous lynch: The only person who knows their role, is the player themselves. I DO NOT believe any townie would put our game at risk with a vote straight out of the gates. So right now, I'm leaning towards Insomniac. The thing is, there is only ONE other option to the current situation: Insomniac is town, and you are town, and he came out of the gates voting for a townie when he KNOWS all 3 town votes have to land together to win. I'm sorry, Insomniac isn't that stupid. So I'm inclined to believe he's right, or he's Mafia.
Alright, here's the thing. I'm of two minds here:
I've never really bought Insomniac's argument about Robz. However I won't deny that there MIGHT be something there, even if I don't agree with him. He IS right on at least the count that Robz has essentially cast the killing vote both times. (Although to be fair, there was no way for Robz to know that his vote on Morgrim would be the deciding one). On the other hand, Robz HAS essentially laid out why he was casting his vote each time, AND WHEN. The fact that others voted in BEFORE him can hardly be his fault. Still, he may be Mafia. 75% chance.
I agree with some of this. And I agree that I was the principal motivator behind the Morgrim vote (though NOT the kill voter! Morgrim himself did that!). But the K kill was proposed by Galz and carried out by J, so that one really isn't on me.
Yes, I started the Kuildeous train. I fully admit it, and I've admitted that I may take the fall for it. I started looking (I think) too hard for Mafia to be playing safe. On the first day, Kuildeous said a few things that seemed just... off. It seems now the Mafia in this game, although they are WAY ahead, may not be quite as sophisticated as I was giving them credit for. Who knows. I'm certainly not as sure of anything anymore. I was wrong. What do you want me to say? That I didn't do it? I could turn and point my finger now at Jotheonah, who was the first to get behind me and did so quickly, but honestly? I think he's innocent. I think he saw what I was saying and decided I made a valid case.
I'm not so sure I trust the way you're trying to distance yourself. You certainly had the right "read" on Kuildeous at the start of day 2 suggesting he was absolutely town, but you did change tune awfully quickly when things started falling his way. And you DID cast the final vote. Town or Mafia you aren't going to slide out of guilt here.
So I *implore* you all NOT to vote behind Insomniac yet. Maybe that's where we want to go and roll the dice. But given we NOW KNOW that Robz is Mafia or Insomniac is, I think we should take a LONG hard look at how each of them has acted throughout the first 2 days before we make our decision. Win/Lose hangs on that vote.
This is absolutely wrong, and dangerous thinking. We do NOT know that either I or Insomniac are the mafia. It's true that I most strongly suspect Insomniac, and Insomniac is 'certain' about me. But we could both be wrong.
I've already covered the first part above. Maybe you think Insomniac is town casting a vote on town within 10 minutes of day 3 starting. But I don't buy it AT all. And it brings me into my second point:
And, look, this gets to my second point... the most likely mafia pairing at this point seems to me to be Galz and J. They have worked in tandem, sometimes subtly, sometimes overtly. But often in tandem.
Really? Yes. Jotheonah and I BOTH voted to lynch Morgrim. Yep. Absolutely. And hey, look, we BOTH voted to lynch Kuildeous. But guess what? So did you and Voltgloss. Your argument that we've been "working together" is as shallow as Insomniac's case that you've been the primary "finger-pointer" of our bunch. J has supported me as much as he's supported anybody else out here. The only person he DIDN'T get along with, was Voltgloss on day 2. And he was suspicious of Insomniac as well.
I'm not here to make his case for being innocent. He can do that himself. At the moment, I'm inclined to believe he is. But let's assume for JUST a moment (indulge me) that we were the two Mafia. WHY in the WORLD would I be asking Insomniac to take his vote down off you? WHY in the WORLD would I not be casting the second vote now? Do you really think that I'd be worried about protecting for a future round if I had the chance to end it here and now? Really?
And I know it's not going to win me many friends to start suggesting people other than Insomniac. Like, Galz and J, I hope you don't say "ah, Robz suspects us, we will join Insomniac now!"
If I had reason to vote you, I would've done so already. I haven't, and won't cast my vote on ANYBODY until I'm in agreement with the two other people I most likely think to be town. We win or lose by our vote today.
The thing I am most sure about is that Voltgloss is town. I've just gotten such a strong town vibe from him. I know the rest of you find him suspicious, right? Well, I don't.
Perhaps the most interesting thing you've said here. Is he town? Is he Mafia? I don't know. But oddly, I'm inclined to think he's town as well.
I must say one more thing about Insomniac. I still find it difficult to believe that both mafia voted for Morgrim in the first round, because it was unnecessary to do so. Insomniac is the last surviving non-Morgrim voter.
A valid point that I had not given much consideration, although I'm not sure it matters as much as an argument to me in LIGHT of Bozzball and Kuildeous's deaths.
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Okay, I just did some more thinking about whether this is the right time for this. I think it is. Soon it will be too late. ... Insomniac, you should really take that vote off me. Really, really. And, I can back that up.
I AM THE DOCTOR
There was every reason to stay silent up to now. I can't save myself, so a reveal means I die (I've known that since Tables turned up as a dead cop, eliminating the possibility of Jailkeeper.) But now there are 5 people left: I, G, J, V, R. We lose if we do not lynch a mafia this round, because there will be 2 town and 2 mafia and we lose by definition. So we'll never even get to the point tonight where my power helps unless we do this right. (If we do kill the correct person today, this means I die tonight--which is bad, but it's better than losing right now, which I suspect is likely to happen unless I come out, and could in fact still happen because we don't know for sure who is mafia, just that it isn't me.)
For clarification, I saved Kuildeous during the first night. I saved Voltgloss last night.
So, Insomniac, please remove that vote. Seriously, if G and J are the mafia, we could lose instantly. You are really, really, really suspicious to me, but let's not let this feud accidentally end the game.
I hadn't seen this up when I posted. Hmm... interesting. Very interesting. If you ARE the Doctor, you've been very ineffectual. I can't see anything that could possibly back up your claim either. Care explaining your protection choices in detail? I fully agree Insomniac should step down his vote, but not because I buy this story. What does a possible reveal gain you now? Protection from a lynch? That's great if it's true... but I think a Mafia could just as easily make this claim trying to throw suspicion. I'll need to hear more from you before I buy your story.
I guess a good question to everybody else would be is: Is there a doctor in the house? (Or Jailer for that matter) Hmm..
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Hey look, I'm online. And Galzria is online. And we haven't hammered Robz. Despite that if were mafia, we could win the game that way and there's absolutely no reason for us not to. That should pretty well clear us as a team, eh?
I am not so sure of Volt. Galzria said last night he wasn't sure of Volt. Robz, it's suspicious to me that you are. It's suspicious to me that you claimed doctor despite having NO evidence to back that up and the information being totally unhelpful to the town.
I think a Robz-Volt mafia is a very likely pair at this point. I suggested this last round and the onl hard evidence against it was "A bit obvious, innit?" For me, at this point, with two suspicious characters, that's not nearly enough.
A slightly less likely pair is Voltgloss-Insomniac. I don't like that for a lot of reasons. If Insomniac is mafia, then he was setting up today's vote for Robz yesterday, confident that Kuildeous was getting lynched without his help. Pretty smart mafia play. His partner could be anyone.
Galzria-Insomniac is genius-level play, but I'm not ruling it out.
Robz-Insomniac would be crazy because they're firing so many shots back and forth. On the other hand, that could be the strategy: set up a 1 v 1 to make sure at least one of them survives, and then leave that one in such a trusted position they can coast through until the end. But 2 mafia is a way stronger position than 1. There's no reason to play that long game, especially because Galz and I have made it pretty clear we're unlikely to turn on each other.
(I'm also suspicious of Robz for setting us up as a pair, the only way to discredit our mutual town reads on each other. Though I'm aware that I'm doing the same thing to him and Volt.)
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I can't believe the mafia killed bozzball. He was absolutely not a threat and plenty of people were suspicious of him. Galzria was the obvious target, or me.
How IS it that we've all been o sure in our town reads of Galz, and yet the mafia continues not to kill him? They should be keeping alive the people who play badly and breed suspicion - the ones we'll lynch for them. SOmeone who's been consistently helpful and nobody has levelled a serious accusation against? Should definitely have been target #1. And yet, he lives on.
Forget what I said about Galzria and I never turning on each other. I think he might be the mafia. In which case his partner could be ... absolutely any of you.
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Okay, I've read everything posted so far, and the following things leap out at me:
- If Insomniac were Town, I was 80% certain he was the one who would die in the night. That would have left us with the 4 chronic lynchers - all able to point suspicion at each other in an absolute morass of confusion - and the functional non-participant bozzball. If the Mafia were 2 of the 4 lynchers, that strikes me as the best possible position for them. It's going to be hard enough for us to pick out the at least 1 Mafioso among the 4 of us. It would be a miracle for us to get 2.
I am trying to think of a reason why the Mafia would choose not to create this scenario. I think the most likely reason, by far, is that they didn't have the option. The only reason they wouldn't have the option? If Insomniac were Mafia.
- This point by jotheonah:
Hey look, I'm online. And Galzria is online. And we haven't hammered Robz. Despite that if were mafia, we could win the game that way and there's absolutely no reason for us not to. That should pretty well clear us as a team, eh?
For me, it does clear the J-G team idea. Because I was NOT online. If jotheonah and Galzria were a Mafia team, and were both online at a time when (1) a townie voted for another townie and (2) the third townie was not around, they would have zero incentive to do anything other than drop a 1-2 hammer and win the game.
- Finally, I was thinking about my "likely pairings" post back in Day 2. Obviously I was so, so wrong about Kuildeous. But the question is: why was I wrong? What part of my analysis was incorrect? I've read over what I posted and I still think my analysis of the six most-likely-seeming pairings was accurate. Where I went wrong was my initial assumptions: when I said Galzria and bozzball were almost certainly Town. Now, we know bozzball really was Town all along (at least we got SOMETHING right). So that leaves Galzria.
To sum up:
- I am quite sure Insomniac is Mafia, mainly because he survived the night.
- I think Galzria is the most likely teammate with Insomniac (assuming Insomniac is indeed Mafia).
I do have one question for Robz. Well, a two-part question: Assuming you are Doctor as you claim, could you explain to us why you protected the people you did during the night?
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Rereading things, I see I need to address this:
But let's assume for JUST a moment (indulge me) that we were the two Mafia. WHY in the WORLD would I be asking Insomniac to take his vote down off you? WHY in the WORLD would I not be casting the second vote now? Do you really think that I'd be worried about protecting for a future round if I had the chance to end it here and now? Really?
Actually, if you two are Mafia, I think your opening play makes perfect sense.
Insomniac opens the day with a vote. This is not as insane as it seems. Insomniac opened Day 2 with a vote as well, and at least jumped on a suspicion bandwagon in his first (only substantive) post in Day 1. It's consistent for him to do the same thing Day 3, whether or not he's Town or Mafia. (I do think he's more likely Mafia, but not because he opened with a vote; I think that for the reasons in my previous post.)
Then Galzria gets all over Insomniac's case - not because of who Insomniac suspects (Robz), but for the manner in which Insomniac expressed those suspicions (an early vote). If the two of them are Mafia, this is a way for them to distance from each other - "we CAN'T be a team, look at how much we're fighting!" - while still keeping their suspicions trained on the same target.
Galzria, if you two are Mafia, I think the LAST thing you'd want to do is follow on Insomniac's vote with a vote of your own. That's the most transparent bandwagon on the Oregon Trail. Sure, you'd only need 1 more vote to get your 3, but look at the audience you're trying to convince: me and jotheonah. Past play shows that if we agree on ANYTHING, it's that bandwagons are suspicious and we're not going to leap quickly to join one. So a 1-2 from you and Insomniac would do nothing but generate deep suspicion in the both of us.
So the smarter play is for you to wait, and not give the third (hammer) vote until one of us has signed on as second voter. What better way to set yourself up as the continued voice of reason then to call loudly for Insomniac to take down his vote? If you're both Mafia, there is no downside to this. All Insomniac has to do is ignore you! "Hey look, we CAN'T be Mafia because he refuses to do what I say! We're fighting with each other here!" ...and then, when me or J finally votes Robz, you can sweep in with the hammer and close the game. It's a smart play from a smart player.
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Jotheonah and Voltgloss:
On the one hand, I think it's absolutely fair to suspect me. If not only because you haven't in the past, but because of my charge on Kuildeous. But look, if you make the wrong lynch now, it's game over.
I alluded to a point in my posts that I would like to bring back in detail here: The only person who knows their role is the person themselve. This is the lesson that I learned from Kuildeous's death. The WHOLE time I was persecuting him, he KNEW that he was innocent. Nobody else knew that, but he did.
This is important to me for one main reason: We are now trying to find out who the Mafia are based on learning his innocence. He was trying to figure out who the Mafia were KNOWING that he was innocent. He was using the information we JUST got the whole time.
Now, look back at Kuildeous's thought process. His vote for bozzball was a technical one, not a relevant one. But look back from there. All of his thoughts/suspicions are my launching pad. And he rarely, if ever, had me suspect #1. Suspicious? Yes. More than others? No. I didn't listen to him in life, maybe I can in death (great letter death scene letter K).
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That all said, I was pretty clear last night that I was leaning Insomniac. That still holds true. I believe we are looking at I-V, or even I-R. I-J I don't see as much, but I could be wrong.
So, that's where I stand. If I fall for what happened to K, then I'm sorry town, because I played us out of two rounds, not just one. I can't say why I'm still alive. K's analysis on bozzball was dead on. I was the only one who recognized that. An alive bozzball today would've meant a Mafia win. So I am lost as to the strategy the Mafia are playing. But if you *honestly* think that Insomniac and I are a pair, well... I don't know what more to say. At least I believe you'll have a 50% chance of being right. I'm more and more wary of that opening vote day 3 though.
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UNVOTE
Still catching up but Robz roleclaim will cause me to do this. For now anyways
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Ok so I'm still a lot of people's suspect number 1 and that's fine but as Voltgloss pointed out not unusual. Yes I am aware that if we lynch incorrectly we lose. Robz roleclaim seems a bit weak this late and more like a mafia throwing off the scent. Maybe its the truth but I see no reason to protect Volt on day 2
Kuildeous' bozzball train? Seriously? Does NOONE remember that I pointed this out before him? (In the only post he EVER suspected me in)
Bozzball's murder in the night makes no sense to me either but maybe it was because any other murder would have been suspicious and if bozzball came back could have turned the tides.
I would also like to point out that since I voted. Every single other person has weighed in. I think this makes it almost a certainty that either me or robz is mafia, perhaps both.
I ALSO expected to die last night. BUT the mafia know that Im a huge target. Everyone suspected me on day 2. And will continue to do so because I recklessly carry on the robz train. Actually this makes me rethink my stance on robz but only slightly.
I dont think anything substantial enough has been said today aside from the vote thing which I was well aware of.
I was willing to gamble that Robz was mafia and if he is then I feel like I have a success on the fact he didn't get lynched when EVERYONE had a chance to weigh in.
As per many others suggestions though I will hold off on revoting until everyone else has a chance to weigh in on these thoughts.
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Insomniac is shaping up to be the easy choice that everyone is advocating for. Which means he's NOT mafia. Our first two lynches were bandwagons with pretty much no one opposed to them except the lynchees. And they both turned out town.
I think the worst decision we can make this time is the obvious one. I'm much more inclined to vote Robz this round then Insomniac.
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Another thought to consider with regards to Kuildeous. He is the ONLY one that was on the Robz train with me. And well look where that got him. 6 feet underground.
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Insomniac is shaping up to be the easy choice that everyone is advocating for. Which means he's NOT mafia. Our first two lynches were bandwagons with pretty much no one opposed to them except the lynchees. And they both turned out town.
I hear this. I'm just having trouble seeing why the Mafia would kill bozzball instead of Insomniac, if Insomniac is Town. I would really like hearing everyone else's thoughts on this question.
I suppose that - assuming 2 of the 4 chronic lynchers are Mafia - they could be thinking it'll be easy to get at least 1 lyncher on their side against Insomniac? But why is that a better move than killing Insomniac (who is around to defend himself) vs. bozzball (who, I think we can safely assume, wouldn't)?
If Insomniac is Town, I think it's reasonable for the Mafia to assume he would continue his crusade against Robz today. (As he has in fact done.) That would mean one of two things:
- If the Mafia were some combination of me, Galzria, and/or Jotheonah, than we would have been planning to jump on Insomniac's bandwagon and lynch Robz for the win. But... that didn't happen when it could have.
- The only other option is that Robz is Mafia. Which means the Mafia knew, at the end of Day 2, that if Insomniac lived he would likely focus suspicion on Robz again in Day 3. Why would they leave Insomniac alive to do just that, if one of their number is Robz?
I'm just struggling to come up with a scenario that is more likely than a scenario where Insomniac is Mafia.
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Insomniac is shaping up to be the easy choice that everyone is advocating for. Which means he's NOT mafia. Our first two lynches were bandwagons with pretty much no one opposed to them except the lynchees. And they both turned out town.
I hear this. I'm just having trouble seeing why the Mafia would kill bozzball instead of Insomniac, if Insomniac is Town. I would really like hearing everyone else's thoughts on this question.
I suppose that - assuming 2 of the 4 chronic lynchers are Mafia - they could be thinking it'll be easy to get at least 1 lyncher on their side against Insomniac? But why is that a better move than killing Insomniac (who is around to defend himself) vs. bozzball (who, I think we can safely assume, wouldn't)?
If Insomniac is Town, I think it's reasonable for the Mafia to assume he would continue his crusade against Robz today. (As he has in fact done.) That would mean one of two things:
- If the Mafia were some combination of me, Galzria, and/or Jotheonah, than we would have been planning to jump on Insomniac's bandwagon and lynch Robz for the win. But... that didn't happen when it could have.
- The only other option is that Robz is Mafia. Which means the Mafia knew, at the end of Day 2, that if Insomniac lived he would likely focus suspicion on Robz again in Day 3. Why would they leave Insomniac alive to do just that, if one of their number is Robz?
I'm just struggling to come up with a scenario that is more likely than a scenario where Insomniac is Mafia.
As the only person you DON'T want feedback from Ill give you some anyways. I have already suggested a scenario that is at least equally likely.
Robz is mafia.
Now why bozzball. Well there was a lot of people that wanted to vote for me on day 2. So why kill me in the night when the town would do it? Suppose I was killed during the night. This leaves a scenario where the 2 mafia vote for someone the 2 town vote for someone else and we have bozzball in limbo. For the sake of my argument assume that I am town and this is learned upon my death. This means that IF the town get it right and vote for mafia which is still a possibility they will not. Then it comes down to bozzball. Say bozzball actually does his due dilligence. Well then he's gonna vote properly from the information gained from me being town.
Furthermore consider the following. I have a "crusade" against Robz. Assume Robz is mafia. Review day 2. Who suspected Robz? Kuildeous and I. Well one of us is dead, the other (those of you keeping track thats me) is again crusading. Now think about what that did for me on day 2 I mean really? It made me MORE suspicious than Robz. Before my "crusade" I wasn't really on the radar, I could have just kept pointing fingers like everyone else (I still think Robz did this more and once it stuck he pushed it) but I didn't. I've known I am right about Robz since Day 2. I still know I'm right, and whats best for the town is mafia dying. I hope that we can all see that before day 3 is up.
Robz made a roleclaim and well a roleclaim seems like a way to get me off his back it also seems unlikely that he is actually that role. Why claim it now?
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And Robz as per my playing is stupid, I haven't lynched any town or been involved in the lynching thereof. My conscious is clear, is yours?
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I do have one question for Robz. Well, a two-part question: Assuming you are Doctor as you claim, could you explain to us why you protected the people you did during the night?
Absolutely.
Going into the first night, we had just lynched Morgrim. At the time, my thinking was this: because Morgrim turned out to be town, the Mafia would have voted to kill Morgrim if given the chance. (Later during Day 2 I changed my mind on this, as I've noted, and started suspecting the mafia would have done just the opposite: refrained from voting because there was no need to, and it ended up only taking 4 real votes to kill the guy anyway.) But at the time, anybody who had the chance to vote for Morgrim but didn't was most innocent to me. That was Tables and Kuildeous. I was pretty sure that both were innocent. I thought the fact that Morgrim had implicated Tables before dying made Tables more likely to survive the night--why would they kill the guy who was just called out by the only person we know to be innocent? that's someone you leave in the game and direct suspicion toward, if you're mafia--so I chose Kuildeous. In hindsight, a ruinous choice.
Last night was a simpler choice. With Kuildeous not being mafia, that left Insomnaic, Jtheonah, Galzria, Voltgloss, and Bozzball. The first three of those people in my mind had some decent chance of being mafia. Voltgloss I trust more to be town, and I also thought he might be in some danger just because nobody is SUPER suspicious of him. So it seemed like he was the best and most worthy choice. I barely even considered Bozzball because he's been such a non-entity, and I didn't see how killing him could really benefit the mafia enough to make them do it. I didn't see how it would benefit us either, if I saved him. I mean, the more living bodies the better, but he's had so few thoughts or contributions. Didn't seem worth it in any sense.
So, that was my thought process for those saves. By the way, in post #254, just as Day 2 begins, you'll see me saying things consistent with the reasoning I just gave:
Is it Kuildeous? No. I really don't think it is.
Since I suspect suspicion, and probably some votes for me this round, and I will be gone most of tomorrow, I want to say: It only takes 4 votes to kill, now! Please, please, please do not cast the 4th vote against me without giving me a chance to address you.
Okay, those are all my thoughts for now. Off to bed for me! Please read, and I would love to read thoughts from others.
I doubt anybody will find this particularly compelling evidence, but I didn't want to die without a "chance to address you" because I was the doctor. Yeah, yeah, neither did Kuildeous, but you'll see that my plea was more preemptive than his. And it was made because I was doctor.
Robz made a roleclaim and well a roleclaim seems like a way to get me off his back it also seems unlikely that he is actually that role. Why claim it now?
Wrong. It's more likely than unlikely. Since we know among the dead there is exactly one cop and the rest vanillas, of the remaining 5 people: there is a 33% chance we have a doctor, a 33% chance we have a jailkeeper, and a 33% chance we have neither. (Right? I think so.) In other words, if you think I am mafia, there was a 66% chance my roleclaim would be immediately contradicted by somebody else. What's the more likely scenario? I got really lucky? Or, given, what I've said about who I saved and why and how I've played, it is simply the truth that I am the doctor?
(Again, Insomniac is the only one I see saying things that just distort the facts. "It seems unlikely that he is actually the role." I would be interested of course to hear his argument for why he doesn't believe it, but it's simply not true to say it's unlikely.)
Insomniac is right that I revealed my role to get him off my back. That's because the vote for me was game over if Insomniac was not mafia, so it was really important to get him to unvote it. I also believed that guarding the secret of my role into another night was unlikely to be useful, because there are so many game over scenarios before we even get to that point.
Other thoughts:
The fact that G and J did not jump on me does in fact largely clear them as a pair. It makes Insomniac a more likely mafia in my view, because it makes more sense that there was only one other mafia who could have voted for me and obviously that's not enough. I still say that one of them, either G and J, are likely to be mafia alongside Insomniac.
And Robz as per my playing is stupid, I haven't lynched any town or been involved in the lynching thereof. My conscious is clear, is yours?
My conscience is certainly not clean. Neither is Volt's, J's, or Galz's. Of the remaining people, your conscience is absolutely the most clean. It's pristine. Based on that, we either accept that both mafia actively participated in both lynches and got their hands dirty at every opportunity, or we accept that you must be one of the mafia.
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Robz:
Wrong. It's more likely than unlikely. Since we know among the dead there is exactly one cop and the rest vanillas, of the remaining 5 people: there is a 33% chance we have a doctor, a 33% chance we have a jailkeeper, and a 33% chance we have neither. (Right? I think so.) In other words, if you think I am mafia, there was a 66% chance my roleclaim would be immediately contradicted by somebody else. What's the more likely scenario? I got really lucky? Or, given, what I've said about who I saved and why and how I've played, it is simply the truth that I am the doctor?
The possible setups include 3 setups where there is 1 power role and 3 where there are 2.
We know that there is at least one town cop. With this knowledge there are 3 possible setups as you described. leading to the 33% chance.
HOWEVER, YOU do not have a 33% chance of being a doctor. When the doctor was assigned if it was, there was an equal chance for all vanillas to have that role (Im going to just use vanilla to shine the most favourable light possible on you). This means that assuming there is a doctor you have a 9-2-1=6, 1/6 chance or 16.6667% chance of being the doctor.
Now factoring in the likelihood of there being a doctor you have a 16% likelihood in 33% of the setups. This can be expresed as 1/6*1/3 = 1/18 or .05 which means that there is a 5% chance that you are in fact the doctor.
This is of course only the chance of you being a doctor and has nothing to do with the transpirings up until this point.
To which I draw attention to the fact I brought up that there could be another role on day 2 and that no one had claimed it. You had a vote on you at the time and a lot of suspicion your way. At this point you said there has been no reason to. Not a stake in the casket at all except that you claimed your role in Mafia I with almost no pressure on you. If I were in Mafia I I would be inclined to believe that claim. Here, not so much.
You not getting hammered while I was asleep cements the fact that one of us is mafia to me. And well I'm not mafia. I don't see anything changing my mind but it does seem pressing that people have a consensus even though the town has a nasty habit of lynching town when they get a consensus
Time for my real life occupation claim. I am a computer scientist. I program applications. Computer science is basically a different branch of math and I took math as my minor. I also hold a record on the Putnam exam for the college I attended.
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Robz:
Wrong. It's more likely than unlikely. Since we know among the dead there is exactly one cop and the rest vanillas, of the remaining 5 people: there is a 33% chance we have a doctor, a 33% chance we have a jailkeeper, and a 33% chance we have neither. (Right? I think so.) In other words, if you think I am mafia, there was a 66% chance my roleclaim would be immediately contradicted by somebody else. What's the more likely scenario? I got really lucky? Or, given, what I've said about who I saved and why and how I've played, it is simply the truth that I am the doctor?
The possible setups include 3 setups where there is 1 power role and 3 where there are 2.
We know that there is at least one town cop. With this knowledge there are 3 possible setups as you described. leading to the 33% chance.
HOWEVER, YOU do not have a 33% chance of being a doctor. When the doctor was assigned if it was, there was an equal chance for all vanillas to have that role (Im going to just use vanilla to shine the most favourable light possible on you). This means that assuming there is a doctor you have a 9-2-1=6, 1/6 chance or 16.6667% chance of being the doctor.
Now factoring in the likelihood of there being a doctor you have a 16% likelihood in 33% of the setups. This can be expresed as 1/6*1/3 = 1/18 or .05 which means that there is a 5% chance that you are in fact the doctor.
This is of course only the chance of you being a doctor and has nothing to do with the transpirings up until this point.
Okay, but we know that all of the Vanillas who died were not Doctors, because roles get revealed. At present, there is a 0% chance that Morgrim, Tables, Kuildeous, and Bozzball were Doctors. So my odds at this point are 1 in 5 (20%) that if there is a doctor, he is me. But like I said, if I am mafia, declaring doctor leads to counterclaims in 66% of the scenarios.
To which I draw attention to the fact I brought up that there could be another role on day 2 and that no one had claimed it. You had a vote on you at the time and a lot of suspicion your way. At this point you said there has been no reason to. Not a stake in the casket at all except that you claimed your role in Mafia I with almost no pressure on you. If I were in Mafia I I would be inclined to believe that claim. Here, not so much.
You not getting hammered while I was asleep cements the fact that one of us is mafia to me. And well I'm not mafia. I don't see anything changing my mind but it does seem pressing that people have a consensus even though the town has a nasty habit of lynching town when they get a consensus
In this game there was no reason for me to come out as Doctor until now, I think that's obvious. I cannot comment on anything about Mafia I, so unfortunately I can't talk about the rationale for any of my decisions there. All I can do is encourage you to read the whole thread and hope that that answers any questions you may have about my actions. Sorry I can't say more about that, it's just the rules.
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Them not being doctors doesn't increase the chance that you were picked to be a doctor. In fact if I was to be picky I would say that you have a 1/9*1/3 chance which is 1/27 or 3.5%. It increases the odds your a doctor IF there is one. Which using your math nets you a 1/5*1/3=1/15 or 6.667% chance
I also see no value in a counterclaim. From looking at counterclaims in Mafia I a counterclaim leads to lynching the counter claim so that you can gain info. So say I counter claim doctor (I'm not a doctor I'm a vanilla). The only value that can be gained is lynching me to see that I am the doctor which means that I'm telling the truth. At this point with 2 mafia and 3 town there is 0 value to a role claim or a counter claim.
I understand you can't talk about Mafia 1. To be fair I'm not sure I'm supposed to but you kept saying read Mafia 1 and well I did do some reading (I won't read it all its almost as long as this one :P) I guess in a way Mafia is like fight club you don't talk about it, which means wait...crap I talked about both.
I am not the doctor, or a jailkeeper. I am a vanilla townie. Mark these words
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Them not being doctors doesn't increase the chance that you were picked to be a doctor. In fact if I was to be picky I would say that you have a 1/9*1/3 chance which is 1/27 or 3.5%. It increases the odds your a doctor IF there is one. Which using your math nets you a 1/5*1/3=1/15 or 6.667% chance
Okay, then stop worrying about the odds I was picked to be doctor at the beginning. We have NEW information, that half the people initially in the game are not doctor. So the 1/9 in 1/3 chance is now a 1/5 in 1/3 chance. But I mean, the odds of me being doctor are not greater than anyone else. The odds of you being mafia aren't greater than anyone else. However, the odds that I would be able to lie about being doctor are 1/3. The odds of a counterclaim are 2/3. I'm sure that doesn't automatically clear me--mafia do take risks--but its worth something. I am hoping that that, coupled with my explanations, is reason to trust me here.
I also see no value in a counterclaim. From looking at counterclaims in Mafia I a counterclaim leads to lynching the counter claim so that you can gain info. So say I counter claim doctor (I'm not a doctor I'm a vanilla). The only value that can be gained is lynching me to see that I am the doctor which means that I'm telling the truth. At this point with 2 mafia and 3 town there is 0 value to a role claim or a counter claim.
This is only true if your goal is to remain alive (the mafia) rather than to correct all false information (the town). If there is a doctor other than me they would and should absolutely counterclaim. Then you would all know that either me or that person were mafia. The fact that the counterclaimers are generally lynched first is a symptom of the fact that the counterclaimers are usually the mafia. But if someone else is the doctor, they would and should absolutely say so. If you were a doctor, you should say so and then it ends right now: either you are mafia, or I am.
You strike me as a mafia member who needs to insist that I am not doctor because you're too invested in making me the final innocent lynch and you have no other direction to go.
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And that's all the arguing I can do until later today!
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If I were mafia I wouldn't care which of the 3 remaining townies died. I do.
Robz:
Quote from: Insomniac on Today at 02:53:02 pm
I also see no value in a counterclaim. From looking at counterclaims in Mafia I a counterclaim leads to lynching the counter claim so that you can gain info. So say I counter claim doctor (I'm not a doctor I'm a vanilla). The only value that can be gained is lynching me to see that I am the doctor which means that I'm telling the truth. At this point with 2 mafia and 3 town there is 0 value to a role claim or a counter claim.
This is only true if your goal is to remain alive (the mafia) rather than to correct all false information (the town). If there is a doctor other than me they would and should absolutely counterclaim. Then you would all know that either me or that person were mafia. The fact that the counterclaimers are generally lynched first is a symptom of the fact that the counterclaimers are usually the mafia. But if someone else is the doctor, they would and should absolutely say so. If you were a doctor, you should say so and then it ends right now: either you are mafia, or I am.
This is absolutely not true, lynching the counterclaim or the claim leads to a loss if they are town, why are you trying to hide this information? If we lynch wrong we lose, no one can counterclaim you because lynching the counterclaim has no value, if they were town we lose. If they weren't town, then we are in the game but the mafia has no reason to counterclaim if thats the case, nor does a townie who is not a doctor.
Reasons to claim being a doctor, you are a mafia, or you want to stay alive (yourself). It doesn't matter if your the doctor give me a reason to believe your town. We can't be concerned with having a doctor alive we need to be concerned with lynching mafia. Because think about it like this
Scenario 1: You are a doctor
1a)We lynch you - We lose
1b)We lynch a townie - We lose
1c)We lynch a mafia (not you) - Hurray! 1 Townie dies in the night, 2-1, We have a chance
Scenario 2: You are not the doctor but are town
2a)We lynch you - We lose
2b)We lynch a townie - We lose
2c)We lynch a mafia (not you) - Hurray! 1 Townie dies in the night, 2-1, We have a chance
Scenario 3: You are mafia claiming doctor to stay alive and redirect votes
3a)We lynch you - Hurray! 1 Townie dies in the night, 2-1, We have a chance
3b)We lynch a townie - We lose
3c)We lynch the other mafia - Hurray! 1 Townie dies in the night, 2-1, We have a chance
Let's examine a scenario 4 with counterclaim
4a)The real doctor is lynched (you or the counterclaim)0 - No information can be gained from this we lost
4b)The mafia counterclaim is lynched - Hurray, 1 townie dies in the night, 2-1, We have a chance
You claiming doctor now when it has low relevance is not useful, it does nothing but muddle the information we have. Perhaps allowing people to not vote for you.
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I didn't say we should lynch the counterclaimant (though I would if there was, because I am the doctor). I said if someone else was the doctor they should say so, because that would be good for the town, because then we could narrow down the mafia to a 1/2 choice. You were saying they shouldn't reveal, which is silly.
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Claiming doctor doesn't have low relevance now. It will never have more relevance--you voted for me, and we lose if you kill me!
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I didn't say we should lynch the counterclaimant (though I would if there was, because I am the doctor). I said if someone else was the doctor they should say so, because that would be good for the town, because then we could narrow down the mafia to a 1/2 choice. You were saying they shouldn't reveal, which is silly.
I didnt say they shouldn't reveal. Where did I say this? I said a counterclaim doesn't have much value to the town, not that it shouldn't be done because yes that would be a 1/2 choice.
The claims were infinitely valuable in Mafia I because they could afford to lose town. We can't
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Ugh. I feel like I'm watching Tennis. Insomniac and Robz have both made solid points. I honestly don't know what to think. One of them is Mafia (hell, maybe both. What a game that would be. I tip my hat if so).
If only one is, that means either J or V is. Ugh. This sucks. Well, what say you two? I am convinced the Mafia would be willing to risk losing somebody at this point, so throwing their teammate under the bus is not out of the question. I expect to hit Mafia here, but I expect to hit with 4 votes. So what think you two?
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Ugh. I feel like I'm watching Tennis. Insomniac and Robz have both made solid points. I honestly don't know what to think. One of them is Mafia (hell, maybe both. What a game that would be. I tip my hat if so).
If only one is, that means either J or V is. Ugh. This sucks. Well, what say you two? I am convinced the Mafia would be willing to risk losing somebody at this point, so throwing their teammate under the bus is not out of the question. I expect to hit Mafia here, but I expect to hit with 4 votes. So what think you two?
I think Robz has the better of the argument, though that could simply be because I am having trouble following Insomniac's argument. As I understand it, if Robz were mafia he had a 2/3 chance of triggering a counterclaim when he claimed Doctor. I haven't seen anything from Insomniac explaining WHY, if Robz were mafia, that he would run that risk. But maybe i'm missing something?
Galzria, which "solid points" do you think Insomniac made?
I still want to hear why the mafia would kill bozzball instead of Insomniac if Insomniac were town. I recall Insomniac wrote "because Robz is mafia" as a response but I confess I had trouble following his logic. Can someone clarify?
Also, FWIW, Galzria's soliciting my and J's opinions before weighing in with any substance at all does not make me any less suspicious of G. The opposite, in fact.
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Voltgloss:
Do a little reading of Day 2 in Mafia 1. The counterclaimer gets lynched. To prove wrong or right so that you can have information to work off. What happens here if a counterclaim happens? No new information is gained, someone is lying we vote to kill one, we hit mafia then huray if not we lose. IF we hit mafia its still 2-1 and town can't get it wrong. (The night kill).
So why roleclaim? Because it doesn't matter and it gets people off his back. Yes he runs the risk but he also has a 33% chance there is no one to counterclaim, and even if there is we still might lose. Its a very hard fought battle from where we are. One that isn't won by roleclaiming and counterclaiming
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Volt: (at game, can't quote)
I agree with Insomniac in that I don't see the full value I'm a reveal with no way to really back it up. The Mafia can take more risks than us here.
As for soliciting before analyzing. Yes. I've led (or misled) twice now. I don't want to do so again. At this point I am more than happy to provide my opinion when asked, but I feel much less certain of myself. If I have to cast more suspicion on myself by listening instead of leading, so be it. We can't be wrong.
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But if Robz were mafia, why run the risk of roleclaiming at aalll? He wasn't in immediate danger of being lynched IF he is Mafia. There was no chance of townies quickhammering - we have nothing to gain by rushing. So if Robz were mafia, why run the risk of roleclaiming? It doesn't look like a risk he needed to run.
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But if Robz were mafia, why run the risk of roleclaiming at aalll? He wasn't in immediate danger of being lynched IF he is Mafia. There was no chance of townies quickhammering - we have nothing to gain by rushing. So if Robz were mafia, why run the risk of roleclaiming? It doesn't look like a risk he needed to run.
Insomniac is right that I revealed my role to get him off my back. That's because the vote for me was game over if Insomniac was not mafia, so it was really important to get him to unvote it. I also believed that guarding the secret of my role into another night was unlikely to be useful, because there are so many game over scenarios before we even get to that point.
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That doesn't answer my question. That's Robz's explanation for why he roleclaimed. Robz's explanation only makes sense if he is town. You think he is Mafia. My question is, assuming Robz were Mafia, why did he roleclaim? Why would he have felt the need to run a 66% risk of revealing to someone WITH CERTAINTY that he is Mafia?
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Look at how its shifted your opinion of him. Your almost unwilling to question him now. And well if he gets even one other person off his back with the risky roleclaim then it was worth it if not oh well hes under the bus and the mafia still have a good chance on day 4
I also think that your argument as to my not dying in the night making me mafia makes me suspect you as his partner as much as I don't want to believe that you two are a pair.
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But there was no one on his back when he roleclaimed other than you, Insomniac. If there were 2 votes on him, or 3 people voicing suspicion of him, then yes, I could see him taking the risk of a false roleclaim (if he were Mafia) because the risks associated with it would be BETTER odds than if he didn't try it. But how was there an urgent need for a fake roleclaim at the time Robz claimed?
I'm going to stop replying until either J or R weigh in. I really feel like neither I nor G are willing to answer my questions, and their refusal to do so just makes me more suspicious.
G, I, if either one of you is truly town, I REALLY need to hear from you why it would make sense for the mafia to kill bozzball instead of Insomniac. Every time I ask this the subject gets changed. PLEASE, if you are town, stop evading and simply provide your thoughts. If there is a good explanation I need to hear it.
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But there was no one on his back when he roleclaimed other than you, Insomniac. If there were 2 votes on him, or 3 people voicing suspicion of him, then yes, I could see him taking the risk of a false roleclaim (if he were Mafia) because the risks associated with it would be BETTER odds than if he didn't try it. But how was there an urgent need for a fake roleclaim at the time Robz claimed?
I'm going to stop replying until either J or R weigh in. I really feel like neither I nor G are willing to answer my questions, and their refusal to do so just makes me more suspicious.
G, I, if either one of you is truly town, I REALLY need to hear from you why it would make sense for the mafia to kill bozzball instead of Insomniac. Every time I ask this the subject gets changed. PLEASE, if you are town, stop evading and simply provide your thoughts. If there is a good explanation I need to hear it.
I have voiced my reasoning for this but will try to explain it better. Because I'm an easy lynch. Say I was killed in the night and confirmed town. Now say bozzball comes back and decides to do his part as he's needed. Or he gets replaced with an active player who in turn does their due dilligence. The mafia have a much harder chance of lynching town today if bozzball was replaced or became active having killed me then killing him.
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I haven't avoided it. I said before that I SIMPLY DON'T KNOW. I was the only person willing to back Kuildeos's effort to lynch bozzball because keeping him seemed to be town suicide. K was town. I still believe his analysis was right. I see NO good reason bozzball should've died during the night, so I can't give you one.
Insomniac, me, or Volt made more sense. Can you really give me a good reason? If you/insomnic were Mafia, that would explain your continued existence, but that goes for all of us, right? So I don't know. I certainly can't draw any real conclusions, and won't risk a mistake to try and draw faulty ones.
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To put it simply the mafia had two choices kill bozzball, or someone else. They chose kill bozzball.
Option 1: Kill Bozzball
I was drawing a lot of attention on day 2. Most of you wanted to vote for me or Kuildeous. Of those that voted for Kuildeous some like Robz expressed a concern that I should be lynched not Kuildeous but voted for Kuildeous because it was less likely I would get votes. HOWEVER if people (like Robz) know that Im innocent they are building a case to lynch me on day 3. Now not killing me in the night will look suspicious as you pointed out Voltgloss.
Option 2: Kill x
For my reasoning assume that x is me. They kill me in the night. Now bozzball is inactive so all is good right? The mafia just auto-win. Wrong. Bozzball is town as we all know. So he would have been replaced on day 3. Or as he himself stated if he was going to get into it he would do his due dilligence. Assume that whomever is replaced would have done the same. You now have knowledge that X is town. If X is me, then who does that make mafia? It should be fairly obvious as many people have said that one of Robz and I is mafia. Maybe both. So the town and bozzball armed with the knowledge that X is town aim their guns squarely at the mafia and proceed to win.
You're forgetting Volt that bozzball would have been replaced. If he wasn't he promised to do his due dilligence to help out so I have to assume that he wasn't lying.
That said your coming out and saying my not dying makes me Mafia gives me a firm reason to believe that you are. As your own post shows a reason why the Mafia wouldn't have killed me. If you are mafia it would make sense for you to come out and say it and well we both know Robz doesn't think your mafia and you don't think he's mafia either. You guys keep backing each other up. Always subtely but always.
"Last night I protected volt"
"I think Robz has the better of the argument"
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Sorry I've been gone. RL stuff is big for me right now. I moved to a new city today and start a new job tomorrow morning. I think we can agree the timing is awful.
Re: The Bozzball Question
Volts, here is what you are discounting: This town has proven, again and again, that we are our own worst enemy. What we refer to as "helpful town" has proven, again and again, to be "fatally unhelpful town." So if I were mafia, looking to put together the dream team to lynch another townie, I'd pick the five of us.
Here's another way to look at it: One way or another, the mafia have been manipulating our town lynch bandwagons. Our mafia are now supremely confident in their ability to manipulate this group of people. So they eliminated bozzball, who (A) might be replaced by a rogue element/fresh perspective (heaven forbid) and (B) would be a hard sell for the lynch mob (most of us expressed last round that they think he's town).
So the mafia, whoever they are amongst us, are confident either that we will do ourselves in or that they will be able to manipulate us into doing ourselves in.
I am going somewhere with this. Do I think that Robz's arguments and rhetoric have outclassed Insomniac's all the way? Yes I do. Does this mean Insomniac is mafia and Robz is town? NO IT DOESN'T. Our Mafia are really really good talkers. I trust our best talkers the least right now, and that's Robz and Volt. We have to start playing this game differently than we have been playing it if we want to get different results than we've been getting.
Insomniac's crusade against Robz has been consistent, a quality that several of us has pointed out is quite townish. And he had a perfectly viable excuse to change targets going into Day 3 if he had wanted to.
Robz's doctor claim makes perfect sense to me as a mafia move. If he waited to fakeclaim until he was about to be hammered, none of us would be buying it. By timing it like he did, he's got many of you convinced and more worried about lynching than you were before.
Yes, there was a (insert math here) chance of a counterclaim. But given two days without our doctor letting anything slip, and facing the prospect of one more person joining Insomniac and I in our expressed sentiments against him, I think he concluded there was a good enough chance that we didn't have a doctor to risk the claim.
Consider the other case, where Robz really is town and doctor. Why wouldn't the mafia counterclaim? Imagine if Galz or Volt or I had counterclaimed as Doctor (pick the one you have the strongest town read on, for argument's sake). Who would you have believed? If the answer isn't Robz, than the mafia missed an opportunity here.
Am I sure of any of this? Absolutely not. But I've had a bad vibe about Robz since the start of Day 2. I've been determined to play based on evidence and not vibes. I've completely lost faith in that approach after the last two days.
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Insomniac, thank you for your post #585. I understand your position better now. I don't necessarily agree with it, but I at least understand it, and that's the first step.
jotheonah, thank you for your last post. Especially the point that most of us agreed yesterday bozzball is almost certainly Town. I looked back over the last set of Day 2 posts and, yeah, I can see now where the Mafia might have simply had this sort of conversation Night 2:
- "Who do we kill tonight?"
- "Well, who do the townies think is the most likely person to be Town?"
- "Well, given how hard everyone came down on Kuildeous when he tried to avoid his fate by sacrificing bozzball, I guess that would be... bozzball."
- "Sounds good. Go shoot him. Hell, he probably won't even notice."
I wasn't seeing this simpler possibility back when I first saw the night's kill results. I guess I was thinking about things TOO hard. (Now THERE'S a common offense in this game.)
So, for whatever it's worth, I no longer think the sole fact of Insomniac's living through the night makes him the most likely Mafia suspect. An alternate explanation for bozzball dying instead has been presented, and I can accept it as reasonably likely.
That said, I am not sold on the idea that Robz roleclaiming is a Mafia tell. jotheonah, you commented that if Robz is truly the Doctor, the Mafia should have counterclaimed. I'm not so sure about that. Consider the two scenarios:
1. (the scenario we're in) Insomniac votes for Robz. No one hammers, so one or the other of them must be Mafia. Robz claims Doctor. No one counterclaims, meaning that no one else has a Doctor or Jailkeeper role. All we know is that either Robz or Insomniac is Mafia. None of the three Town players remaining know with certainty that either of them is or isn't.
2. (parallel universe) Same as the above, except someone (let's say, just for sake of discussion, it's jotheonah) counterclaims Robz. Now:
2a. If Robz is Mafia, either Galzria or Volt is his accomplice. And jotheonah now knows WITH CERTAINTY that Robz is Mafia.
2b. If Robz is Doctor, then jotheonah and Insomniac are Mafia. And Robz now knows WITH CERTAINTY that BOTH of them are Mafia.
jotheonah, if Robz were telling the truth and you were Mafia in this situation, would you really want to let Robz know he's right by falsely counterclaiming? What does the false counterclaim get you? Robz's claim isn't strong enough on his own to absolve him of suspicion. Nor would your false counterclaim be strong enough on his own to get him lynched. What it WOULD do is embolden Robz to do everything in his power to get you and your partner lynched, without any possible suspicions of others to bog him down. Why give Robz the information he needs to know that he is absolutely dead-on 100% correct? That certitude might just carry through in his words, and be enough to sway the other Townies to join him. AND, worst of all, if Robz succeeds on Day 3 the Mafia have lost, because it's obvious who the remaining Mafioso is to be lynched on Day 4.
And consider the flipside as well. If Robz is Mafia, he fakeclaimed knowing that there is a 66% chance that someone else alive has a Doctor or Jailkeeper role. That person would certainly counterclaim him. But more to the point, that person would also KNOW WITH CERTAINTY that Robz is Mafia. Why would a Mafioso want to run the 66% risk of giving a Townie the knowledge that he (Robz) is Mafia? What benefit is worth that risk?
These are the reasons why I still think Robz's Doctor claim is more likely to be a Town move than a Mafia move. Enough to be certain? No, I'm not certain. And I'm happy to hear more on why you (or others) think Robz's claim is fake. If I'm missing something in my analysis above, please let me know what it is!
Anyway, where does this leave us? The question of Insomniac v. Robz. I think we're all agreed that, as Insomniac's vote didn't lead to a Mafia quickhammer, then at least ONE of those two must be mafia. (Does anyone disagree with this? If so, let's hear why.)
Out of those two, I definitely agree that we shouldn't be lynching Insomniac simply because Robz has, overall to date, provided posts with more polished rhetoric. However, the reverse applies as well: we shouldn't be lynching Robz simply because Insomniac has, overall to date, made posts with less polished rhetoric.
I need to go back and re-review the case made against Robz by Insomniac. I don't recall finding it compelling before. But perhaps I was reacting more to rhetorical issues than evidentiary issues. I'll go back and reconsider, though I can't promise my analysis will change.
jotheonah, I would like to know more of what's driving your "bad vibes" about Robz starting in Day 2.
Finally, I would like to hear from Galzria why he posited that Robz is Mafia with "75%" certainty in post # 549.
Thanks all.
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Re vibes: I agree that's not at all satisfactory. A re-read is going to be necessary. I certainly don't have one in me tonight, but maybe tomorrow?
And consider the flipside as well. If Robz is Mafia, he fakeclaimed knowing that there is a 66% chance that someone else alive has a Doctor or Jailkeeper role. That person would certainly counterclaim him. But more to the point, that person would also KNOW WITH CERTAINTY that Robz is Mafia. Why would a Mafioso want to run the 66% risk of giving a Townie the knowledge that he (Robz) is Mafia? What benefit is worth that risk?
See, I think Robz was more than 33% sure he wouldn't be counterclaimed. I think, knowing what he knows about each of us, how we play, our level of experience, the amount of danger we've been in, and the mere fact that none of us has let slip that we know there's a doctor, combined with the lack of evidence of a doctor in night play, Robz has come to the conclusion that we have no more town roles but the one we killed. Why do I think that? Because that's the conclusion I came to some time ago. So the math arguments just don't convince me. Maybe Robz thinks more like I do then like you all seem to.
Maybe there was a plan B if someone counterclaimed. I certainly think the counterclaimant would be more suspicious than the claimant, and Robz might have been planning to turn it into an effective assault. We'll never know.
Mafia Robz killing town Insomniac in the night would have been a bad move - it would have made Robz a major town target given that Insomniac was hellbent on lynching Robz yesterday. So that scenario is consistent with a bozzball death.
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Re vibes: I agree that's not at all satisfactory. A re-read is going to be necessary. I certainly don't have one in me tonight, but maybe tomorrow?
Of course. Or later this week. I know I'm going to be very busy with work tomorrow so I probably won't have my own review done until Wednesday at the latest.
See, I think Robz was more than 33% sure he wouldn't be counterclaimed. I think, knowing what he knows about each of us, how we play, our level of experience, the amount of danger we've been in, and the mere fact that none of us has let slip that we know there's a doctor, combined with the lack of evidence of a doctor in night play, Robz has come to the conclusion that we have no more town roles but the one we killed. Why do I think that? Because that's the conclusion I came to some time ago. So the math arguments just don't convince me. Maybe Robz thinks more like I do then like you all seem to.
May I ask when you concluded there were no more town roles, and what led you to that conclusion? (Obviously your suspicion of Robz is fueled by this - you think there's no other power roles, ergo, his roleclaim must be false - so I think we need to delve deeper into your reasoning here. You've alluded to a few things in general about our behavior but nothing concrete.)
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Ok, here's where I stand:
The Mafia made a HUGE mistake by lynching bozzball. They made a HUGE mistake lynching anybody. Consider: Without a night kill, we number 6. It takes 4 to lynch, and there are 4 Townies. We still could not afford to make a mistake, and getting 4 correct votes would be exponentially harder than getting 3, especially with our track record. Add in that they could come out fakeclaiming jailer... They would be in a monster of a position. Better, in fact, than they are now.
But they didn't go that route. Why? Because a good well argued counter claim could throw a wrench in things. General rule of thumb is to kill the counter claim first, but we wouldn't have that luxury, so they would know that we would examine both claims equally. So it wasn't worth the risk.
This brings me to why bozzball. The Mafia must be wary of another role, otherwise they would've followed the above scenario. If we had a Doctor or Jailer amongst us, who would they protect? I can come up with solid arguments why each of us could've been protected by a role during the night, EXCEPT for bozzball. I'm sorry, but I don't see anybody protecting him first. So if the Mafia didn't want to contend with an unknown power, that was the logical kill to make.
This brings me to Robz. If Robz were Mafia making a fake-claim, he would know who the townies are, correct? So why not claim Jailer? He could then claim to have locked up his partner one night, and some random townie the next (Hell, claim K night one, his partner night two). Doctor doesn't make enough sense. Add onto that the fact that if Mafia didn't want to be counter-claimed in a 4-2 game, they really wouldn't risk it in a 3-2 game.
So I feel more safe about Robz's claim being true than false. But that's just where I'm at right now.
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One thing to consider is that the mafia has a role cop. This means that the mafia can deduce things.
For the sake of this argument Robz and Voltgloss are mafia (This isn't necessarily true but itll make things clearer)
Day 1 Morgrim Lynched, Investigated Galzria, Killed Tables - Saw Vanilla, Vanilla, Cop
Day 2 Kuildeous Lynched, Investigates Insomniac, Killed bozzball - Saw Vanilla, Vanilla, Vanilla
thats 5 vanilla and 1 cop. Add that to the 2 mafia roles and bingo your at 7.
Therefore if Robz is mafia, his claim is not actually a 66% chance of failure as it would seem as the mafia would actually have a lot more knowledge than that. And he would be taking a shot in the dark in the example above that jotheonah is not infact the doctor or the jailkeeper. Which is a high likelihood (95% chance of vanilla)
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I'm sorry Insomniac, I didn't follow that at all. Even if the mafia rolecop got as much information as they possiby could, isn't there still at least ONE person they haven't learned the role of? And if all they know is that everyone except that one person is vanilla (plus Tables as cop) - then isn't it still a 66% chance that one person is a power role?
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I'm sorry Insomniac, I didn't follow that at all. Even if the mafia rolecop got as much information as they possiby could, isn't there still at least ONE person they haven't learned the role of? And if all they know is that everyone except that one person is vanilla (plus Tables as cop) - then isn't it still a 66% chance that one person is a power role?
This is correct, and why I said they wouldn't know the role of jotheonah. But the chances that ONE person is doctor is much less than if they had 0 information about the town roles.
Think of it this way, when he doesn't know any of our roles, he is much less sure if there is another role out there. If they know as much information as possible theres still a chance that the role is out there, but its far less likely and far less risky to roleclaim
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I'm sorry Insomniac, I didn't follow that at all. Even if the mafia rolecop got as much information as they possiby could, isn't there still at least ONE person they haven't learned the role of? And if all they know is that everyone except that one person is vanilla (plus Tables as cop) - then isn't it still a 66% chance that one person is a power role?
I would think so. It doesn't matter what an individuals odds are, what matters is that in 66% of Cop games, there is a jailer or Doctor. If you know the identities of 8 people, there is still a 66% that there are 2 roles. I don't think the final PERSON has a 66% chance (although by some property of inheritance maybe he does?) But it still seems more risky to claim than not.
As a side more, IF Robz is fake claiming, bozzball would've been a good choice to kill because of his occupation. I'm not sure that's relevant however.
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I guess what I'm arguing is that from the Math yes the odds are the same. Straight up 66%.
But how do YOU feel. If I was and there was one unknown I would take a risk and roleclaim if it'll get people off me absolutely. If I don't know about 5 people then well I probably wouldn't. It's the gamblers fallacy. But it would still be enough to make me take the risk.
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Sorry Volt, just realized I had missed two posts earlier today, and that you directed a question my way.
Why 75%? Well, the number itself was arbitrary. But I made the immediate case for Insomniacs vote meaning that either he or Robz were Mafia. I got lost slightly in my own post at the time, and meant to indicate that I felt BOTH were around 75% in my book.
I can't be sure out who is, and hell, maybe they both are, but I've got red flags on both. Insomniacs vote, and his (to my mind) weak arguments against Robz fire off warnings in my head. Robz's trying to distance himself from the K kill, and his straight play throughout, along with his polished play and ability to shrug of suspicion throughout the whole game starts ringing those same warnings.
If you want a 1000+ word post with all the quotes to build a case, I can provide it for anybody here, arguing town, or arguing Mafia. I've done more than my share this game, and ended up less than helpful. So instead I'm playing less by logical reasoned thought, and more by instinct this round.
R or I is Mafia. Which one is? Don't know. But as I said two posts ago, I'm leaning towards Robz being town. Still watching and listening closely though, and certainly nor ruling him safe. Far far from.
Hope this helps.
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Okay, I'm back with a mammoth post that includes strong accusations. First, Voltgloss asked for thoughts on Bozzball. I think that everybody, including people I no longer trust, did a good job of laying out why the mafia killed Bozzball. Here's my take, though I think it's similar to other people's:
Bozzball was assumed innocent, and the mafia don't want people like that hanging around. Also, in a weird sense, he presented a wildcard, because it was hard to tell which way he would eventually vote. And his vote would matter today, because there's 5 of us. So I can see the mafia deciding that they've done fine up until now convincing the vocal, core people to do the wrong thing--why take the chance of screwing that up by leaving in someone who is only casually connected to the game? What if he gets replaced by somebody else before the lynch deadline and this person really gets it--a fresh pair of eyes, or something--and the mafia go down? So, I think they decided just to keep rolling with the way things are going and prevent this uninvolved wildcard person from having any influence in this round of the game.
And now, more importantly, I am willing to venture a guess as to who the 2 mafia are.
I am the doctor. Galzria and Voltgloss seem to be leaning toward believing me. Jtheonah seems to be leaning toward thinking I'm mafia. Insomniac is convinced I'm mafia. I believe this clears things up, at least for me.
The mafia are Insomniac and Jtheonah.
First of all, I do NOT say this with certainty. I say it with likelihood. In my mind, it is the most likely scenario. I've reached this conclusion by going back over Day 2 from the standpoint that they are mafia and seeing what statements corroborate this view.
J came out swinging against me early on Day 2. It wasn't super aggressive, but he definitely singled me out as the most suspicious, or at least slightly more suspicious than Volt. I took slight umbrage at that, because hey, plenty of other people voted Morgrim, including him, and he read like a hedger to me with his line about no longer thinking it was Morgrim but still doing that vote. But then, here's the thing: He backed off me. Later in the day (but still early on) we get this from him, where he startes moving away from suspecting me:
As for whether it's Robz or Volt, I was leaning toward Robz but the more I think about it the more I suspect Volt. I'll have to take a really close look to figure out which of them is mafia, but I'm so very sure one of them is.
[Remember that he will eventually go on to quarrel with Insomniac (which I believe was just for the sake of not appearing in tandem) and ultimately vote Kuildeous. And Insomniac considers ME to be the guy who throws too much suspicion around???]
At this point, by the way, J and Insomniac's suspicions line up perfectly. I can even independently verify that via third party:
These will attempt to be organized by level of suspicion (highest first):
Insomniac suspects: Voltgloss, Robz888
Jotheonah suspects: Voltgloss, Robz888
Then things change. Galzria begins to suspect Kuildeous. Voltgloss is also suspicious of Kuildeous. I can say that my thinking about K very much went 180 degrees, I admit that (I actually saved him in the night!). But I was persuaded that at least one of the mafia may have decided not to vote for Morgrim, because they didn't need to. And now J, despite being most suspicious of me and Volt, gets on the K bandwagon. but as J's public suspicions of me drop, and his suspicion of K goes up, Insomniac does the opposite. He very much adopts the mantle of anti-Robz player. Of course, J still leaves the possibility of me and Volt open with this post:
I still believe the most plausible thing at this point is that either Robz or Volt is one mafia and Kuildeaous is the other. Insomniac's last posts have been strange and not that helpful - vague, partly inaccurate, not definitive. But they don't necessarily read mafia to me.
Great! He can kill K this round, while setting himself up to rejoin his mafia partner Insomniac next round in the killing of me (or possibly Volt in case of some weird circumstances). Next, Galz casts the first vote for K. Thing are definitely moving against K. Meanwhile, Insomniac and me have this exchange:
An aside not related to tables it IS possible according to the setup that there may or may not be another town power role. This is an important fact that
nobody has claimed to be them.
Nobody has claimed it because there has been no reason to claim it, I assume. They should only claim it if they know something or if they are about to be accidentally lynched.
There was no reason for Insomniac to bring this up. One possible read of this to me now is him trying to provoke some discussion of who the other role is, because that's something the mafia want to know. My response was a polite reminder that we shouldn't talk about that, let our other role person do their thing in secret for now, obviously! But as the doctor, I didn't want Insomniac's comment to lead the rest of you into thinking there wasn't another role townie at all, so this is why I made this comment. (And come on, Insomniac's comment is just stupid. It is NOT an important fact that no one has claimed to be some special townie--it's just an obvious strategy on the part of that person. I don't believe anybody else would have said something like that. Insomniac said it because he is using mafia thinking.) And on we go...
Okay, Insomnaic turns up the heat against me and actually casts a vote. J tests the waters about returning to suspecting me, starts to publicly walk back his K suspicion. As it becomes clear that me and Volt and Galz will all adamantly vote for K, he again goes back to voting K. Really, this makes good sense for the mafia. J and Insomniac go on to quarrel slightly, and J casts some healthy suspicion on his partner, and then they land on the opposite sides of the vote. But really, it's a trivial distinction to them. In fact, it's better that way. The townie K dies this round with J's vote. Next round, Insomniac gets to sound like Mr. Correct as he goes directly after me. Meanwhile, J can slowly pretend to be swayed by Insomniac's analysis (even though he has had it out for me since the start of Day 2), and hope that this spectacle ropes in Volt, or more likely, Galz. I believe this is the mafia win scenario by the way: Insomniac and J convince Galz to vote for me. Of course it's easier with Bozzball gone, because who knows what he would do.
What does all this mean?
I think we see a clear strategy on the part of the mafia: Accuse the same people when it matters, but vote on opposite sides because the voting doesn't matter when there aren't any mafia up for lynching and it's better not to seem in tandem. There was no reason for them to do anything other than one for Morgrim, one not voting in the first round. That was enough to have Morgrim killed, and then no matter which group of voters came under suspicion in Day 2, they were split up so as not to appear suspicious. They picked me and Volt to go after (easy targets because of the Morgrim vote) but when the town moved against another innocent, K, they reverted to the plan: have one person vote for the kill and have the other refrain. In this round, the round that matters, J is trying to nuance the fact that he is on Insomniac's side. I believe that this is why: He is always been on Insomniac's side. They are the mafia.
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Okay. I obviously thought about this a lot. I began with the belief that Insomniac had to be mafia and went from there. J is his most likely associate, and I think the history backs this up. Am I positive? No. But does it seem most likely to me? Yes.
(This is of course only in addition to the volume of evidence that already incriminates Insomniac individually: namely the fact that he says misleading things all the time. He is the only player who does that.)
I will give them both a chance to respond, and then I will drop a vote on Insomniac. I expect Insomniac and J to cast their votes for me soon. But it all comes down to Volt and Galz, whom I hope and expect to agree with me: that Insomniac is the most likely person to be mafia, based on his misleading statements, his rejection of my roleclaim, and his voting and accusal pattern. And that J is by far his likely mafia partner, backed up by the evidence of how their strategies have played off each other on previous days.
And that's my say.
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That's an incredibly convincing piece of work. It's wrong. You've earned a point-by-point rebuttal and I want to supply that when I can find the time (again, RL stuff...)
For the moment I'll say a few things. One, this is not the first time that Robz's response to my casting suspicion on him has been followed by him suddenly having strong reasons to believe I'm mafia. This happened on Day 2 and I pointed it out then. I think if you'll read through the logs you'll find that every time Robz is in danger even a little, his next act is to aggressively target someone, usually a member of the case against him. He did it on Day 1 when he started the Morgrim accusations while there was chatter about him. He accused me on Day 2 immediately after I accused him. He's doing it again now. None of the rest of you has responded this way when accused. I have not responded this way when accused. It's not town play. It's scum play.
My suspicion certainly has shifted many times over the course of the game. I could say the same thing about every one of you. Don't let him get away with using that as an argument.
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Volts, recall when you called bullshit on my analysis of you by pointing out the extent to which I was being selective in creating my narrative and omitting important things. Robz is doing that now. He glazes over, as best he can, my very vocal suspicions about Insomniac. He ignores the substance of my shift today - which is that this scenario, with all of us supposedly against Insomniac, the rhetorically weakest town player, is so familiar and similar to the circumstances of our mislynches of the last two days.
I believe this is the mafia win scenario by the way: Insomniac and J convince Galz to vote for me
Very interesting choice of words. Notice he specifies the mafia's win scenario as hinging on Galzria. Galzria, he's appealing to you on an emotional level, trying to stir a fear of being "played." He doesn't make a similar play for Volt's sympathies (because he doesn't need to worry about Volt's vote, or because he's been buttering up Volt with talk about how safe he is all day?)
Read Robz's post and tell me it doesn't sound like a mafioso once again trying to shift the conversation away from himself.
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Just a "status update" post from me: I read Robz's post. I read jotheonah's brief comments and understand that he will be providing a more substantive analysis/rebuttal when he can. I'm not going to be in a position to write substantively myself until, I think, tomorrow evening (EDT). In the meantime I will be reading whatever else is newly posted, and also going back to Days 1 and 2 to see the relative likelihood of each of these possible Mafia pairings (sorted by alphabetical order):
Galzria/Insomniac
Galzria/Robz
Insomniac/Jotheonah
Jotheonah/Robz (yeah, seems very unlikely right now, but I'm looking at it anyway)
I'm not looking at Insomniac/Robz because, even though it MIGHT be the pairing if the Mafia are pulling an enormous con (extremely unlikely I think but not 100% impossible), if that IS the pairing our lynch today doesn't actually matter. We get Mafia either way. So we can analyze that possibility on Day 4, if we live that long.
I encourage Galzria to do the same pairing analysis, except of course swap "Insomniac/Volt" and "Robz/Volt" in for the Galzria pairings listed. (Of course others can weigh in, and some already have (Robz, Insomniac), but I'm particularly interested to hear Galzria's thoughts, as we two appear to be the ones whose votes are being courted. I expect Galzria feels the same with respect to me.)
jotheonah, Robz, Insomniac, I'll of course review whatever else you feel is important to address between now and my next substantive post. jotheonah, just so it doesn't fall off your radar when responding to Robz: I would like your reply to my question about when and why you concluded that there are no more power roles. (Feel free to include that in your more detailed post rebutting Robz. I'm not repeating this to rush you; I just want to make sure you don't miss it, given your focus being on Robz's post.)
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Well, once again Robz writes a mammoth post that does nothing but point fingers. The strongest finger pointing robz does is always when accused.
When did Robz go after me on day 2? Post # 254 after I mentioned my thinking that it was him or Voltz in post 247. But neither of us went after each other very strongly until, Post #326 I call Robz out at the end as the who I would vote for. Post #328 is when Robz started pushing for me and calling me a liar. Ever since I started the Robz train he has been calling me bad town play. Maybe but this is dominion strategy we over think everything to death here. I have in my mind posted helpful posts, and my thoughts as seperate entities. The two are not the same.
A helpful post is one that combines all the data there is on a person that suggests they may or may not be mafia. These posts do nothing indicative to whether your mafia or not (for me).
The latter a thoughts post is an explanation of why you're thinking the way you are at a current time, this is where you point fingers and accuse people. These posts of mine tend to be less polished then the rest of you because quite often I'm in a rush whether it be going back to work after a break or because I'm going out with the girlfriend of whatever, truth is I don't have as much time to spend polishing posts as Robz does. and Robz spends a lot of time polishing his posts. While I was playing dominion on isotropic last night I was checking the who's online whos doing what page on strategy and refreshing it quite frequently. I had noticed earlier in the day around 5 that Robz was reading and eventually posting but never did. Later on around 10/10:30 I saw he was posting again. I waited for this post as I was actually hoping he would give me a reason to believe he was the doctor. I went to bed at 11 and this had not yet been posted. 11PDT is 2 on the server, the post that Robz posted was a full hour and a half after that. So Robz put 2.5ish hours into that mammoth post that doesn't do a lot except strongly accuse the only 2 people who suspected him in the slightest.
This right here
"I believe this is the mafia win scenario by the way: Insomniac and J convince Galz to vote for me" Is the only place he targets Galz who also mentioned that he might actually believe its Robz. So to sum up Robz has gone after anyone who's had ANY suspicion of him as SOON as they have suspicion of him and tries to turn whatever they start against them. The only person Robz hasn't gone after is Voltgloss who never really went after Robz.
That said Voltgloss actually tends to have helpful posts. Robz has giant posts that point suspicion wherever he sees best fit, normally at the people who suspect him. And offer no real substance
Robz IS mafia
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I haven't chimed in for a little while now, and I HAVE been active on the forums, so I don't want people to draw conclusions over that. I've got a lot to review and think over before my next post real post and I don't want to do myself or anyone else a disservice by rushing it or posting half-thoughts. As per my earlier post though, much of where I make my decision will be based on gut feeling and instict after re-reading everybody's posts from Day 1 on, rather than trying to build a systematical case. There is honestly enough back and forth from EVERYONE here, towards nearly everyone here, that I really do feel confident that I could make a logical argument against or for anybody based on "evidence" (Exactly as Robz did - Though I'm not saying he's right or wrong at this time).
So try and hang with me. I'll try and have my post up by this afternoon/evening.
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Galz and Volt and Jotheonah:
Take your time we can't screw up here.
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We're not in any hurry to vote here. Everybody just take your time and think.
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For the record, I did not spend 2.5 hours on that post last night. I am doing a lot of things at once. Sometimes I leave up a window with draft posts for quite some time--and also I hit the "quote" button which brings up a new window with what I want to quote so I can copy it, and that stays up a while. Anyway, I take it as a compliment that my posts are polished and persuasive, rather than misleading and choppy.
Let's look at 2 of J's recent posts. Here they are in their entirety:
Hey look, I'm online. And Galzria is online. And we haven't hammered Robz. Despite that if were mafia, we could win the game that way and there's absolutely no reason for us not to. That should pretty well clear us as a team, eh?
I am not so sure of Volt. Galzria said last night he wasn't sure of Volt. Robz, it's suspicious to me that you are. It's suspicious to me that you claimed doctor despite having NO evidence to back that up and the information being totally unhelpful to the town.
I think a Robz-Volt mafia is a very likely pair at this point. I suggested this last round and the onl hard evidence against it was "A bit obvious, innit?" For me, at this point, with two suspicious characters, that's not nearly enough.
A slightly less likely pair is Voltgloss-Insomniac. I don't like that for a lot of reasons. If Insomniac is mafia, then he was setting up today's vote for Robz yesterday, confident that Kuildeous was getting lynched without his help. Pretty smart mafia play. His partner could be anyone.
Galzria-Insomniac is genius-level play, but I'm not ruling it out.
Robz-Insomniac would be crazy because they're firing so many shots back and forth. On the other hand, that could be the strategy: set up a 1 v 1 to make sure at least one of them survives, and then leave that one in such a trusted position they can coast through until the end. But 2 mafia is a way stronger position than 1. There's no reason to play that long game, especially because Galz and I have made it pretty clear we're unlikely to turn on each other.
(I'm also suspicious of Robz for setting us up as a pair, the only way to discredit our mutual town reads on each other. Though I'm aware that I'm doing the same thing to him and Volt.)
And:
I can't believe the mafia killed bozzball. He was absolutely not a threat and plenty of people were suspicious of him. Galzria was the obvious target, or me.
How IS it that we've all been o sure in our town reads of Galz, and yet the mafia continues not to kill him? They should be keeping alive the people who play badly and breed suspicion - the ones we'll lynch for them. SOmeone who's been consistently helpful and nobody has levelled a serious accusation against? Should definitely have been target #1. And yet, he lives on.
Forget what I said about Galzria and I never turning on each other. I think he might be the mafia. In which case his partner could be ... absolutely any of you.
In these two posts, J says he's not "ruling out" Insomniac, but we can see that he all but has. He says all the Insomniac pairings are less likely than Robz-Volt. (J says if Insomniac were mafia, his partner "could be anyone"--get it? Don't focus on specific people like Ins and J...) And then he says of Galz, "I think he might be the mafia."
Again, I find it very interesting that Insomniac calls me out for casting too much suspicion, but when J does it to an equal or greater extent... nothing! Please, Insomniac, I would like you to answer this question. Why is it not suspicious when J does it?
Anyway, these J posts follow a common late-game mafia perspective: anybody but me or my mafia partner. J is planning on a Robz bandwagon, but isn't ruling out getting on a Voltgloss bandwagon or Galzria bandwagon. Because it doesn't matter, as long as both he and Insomniac survive this night: they win.
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Robz: It's not less suspicious he's been crawling up my radar. It doesn't matter that I say this as it'll appear as distancing myself. He's been crawling up my radar for finger pointing. It's just way less bothersome to me. Because of reasons i pointed out in my last post.
Could you please address that post on how you jump on people that jump on you immediatley.
To be honest I'm honestly wanting a reason to believe your doctor claim. If it's true it could hold value going into the 3-1 or 2-1 day 4. Assuming we get that far. Because a 3-1 day 4 is more ideal than a 2-1 day...because we need 3 lynch which means 2 town need to be wrong before mafia can bandwagon? but also that all town have to get it right and agree. :S. Its the same either way I guess just harder for the mafia maybe?
Anyways Robz can you address why you point fingers at everyone but cast your heavier suspicion on those that blame you. For reference I bring this up in more detail in post 603
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Vote Count 3-1
Not Voting (5) - Voltgloss, Galzria, Robz888, jotheonah, Insomniac
With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch
Deadline: Sunday, June 10, 2012 12pm PDT
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Robz: It's not less suspicious he's been crawling up my radar. It doesn't matter that I say this as it'll appear as distancing myself. He's been crawling up my radar for finger pointing. It's just way less bothersome to me. Because of reasons i pointed out in my last post.
Could you please address that post on how you jump on people that jump on you immediatley.
To be honest I'm honestly wanting a reason to believe your doctor claim. If it's true it could hold value going into the 3-1 or 2-1 day 4. Assuming we get that far. Because a 3-1 day 4 is more ideal than a 2-1 day...because we need 3 lynch which means 2 town need to be wrong before mafia can bandwagon? but also that all town have to get it right and agree. :S. Its the same either way I guess just harder for the mafia maybe?
Anyways Robz can you address why you point fingers at everyone but cast your heavier suspicion on those that blame you. For reference I bring this up in more detail in post 603
Absolutely. Honestly, I don't fault your analysis that I get more hostile toward the people who are accusing me. Looking through the logs, it would certainly appear that way. I mean, it's a bit of a Catch-22. You suspect me, I know I'm innocent so this bothers me and I suspect you, so you suspect me more.... But in general over-defensiveness can be grounds for thinking someone is Mafia, so fair enough.
But consider the chain of events this round and maybe you can see why I cast my heaviest suspicions on those who suspect me. You voted for me right out of the gate today, before I had even said anything. If you were not mafia, and I was not mafia (still a quite possible thing at that point, though not anymore) that was GAME OVER. Then I revealed that I was doctor, and you smartly retracted your vote. There is no other doctor; I am the doctor. But you and J don't believe me, you are still making the case against me, the doctor. I can understand not being fully persuaded that I am doctor, because it can't be verified either way, but anyway Volt and Galz seem inclined to believe it because there are more reasons why it would be true than reasons why it's not true (did you guys see my Day 2 exchange with Insomniac about another power role being in the game? I think that lends more evidence to what I'm saying). But the J and Insomniac don't buy it. I can't help but say to myself, "Why is this? I am the doctor, there are reasons why I am the doctor, why don't they agree that I am likely the doctor? Is it because they are mafia?" So then I went back and looked through the logs and concluded that yes, the two of you are mafia.
Look, I can understand thinking that well Robz is just going after the people who suspect him. Yes, I am going after the 2 people who suspect me, and yes I went after them a little bit on Day 2 when they each separately suspected me. If that makes you say, "OKay, Robz is mafia then," I probably can't change your mind, because those things did happen. But I think pages and pages of suspicious behavior on the part of J and Insomniac both individually and from the perspective of them being secretly in cahoots, it is more persuasive that me (and Volt, truly, somewhat) were targeted by the mafia beginning in Day 2 when we were most vulnerable (having led a bad lynch). And perhaps my reaction to being accused has led them to focusing on me more than Volt. I guess that could be a defect of the way I play, and truly it is putting the town in danger, because the town may lynch me, the doctor, because of how I have behaved. So I'm sorry for it, because it has strengthened the arguments of the mafia.
I can admit when arguments are compelling even when they are made against me. So yes, I find the argument that Robz plays too defensively and is hostile toward his accusers to be compelling. But I don't find compelling many, many many, many of the other things Insomniac has said about me, and I've gone over those already.
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Robz: It's not less suspicious he's been crawling up my radar. It doesn't matter that I say this as it'll appear as distancing myself. He's been crawling up my radar for finger pointing. It's just way less bothersome to me. Because of reasons i pointed out in my last post.
Could you please address that post on how you jump on people that jump on you immediatley.
To be honest I'm honestly wanting a reason to believe your doctor claim. If it's true it could hold value going into the 3-1 or 2-1 day 4. Assuming we get that far. Because a 3-1 day 4 is more ideal than a 2-1 day...because we need 3 lynch which means 2 town need to be wrong before mafia can bandwagon? but also that all town have to get it right and agree. :S. Its the same either way I guess just harder for the mafia maybe?
Anyways Robz can you address why you point fingers at everyone but cast your heavier suspicion on those that blame you. For reference I bring this up in more detail in post 603
Absolutely. Honestly, I don't fault your analysis that I get more hostile toward the people who are accusing me. Looking through the logs, it would certainly appear that way. I mean, it's a bit of a Catch-22. You suspect me, I know I'm innocent so this bothers me and I suspect you, so you suspect me more.... But in general over-defensiveness can be grounds for thinking someone is Mafia, so fair enough.
But consider the chain of events this round and maybe you can see why I cast my heaviest suspicions on those who suspect me. You voted for me right out of the gate today, before I had even said anything. If you were not mafia, and I was not mafia (still a quite possible thing at that point, though not anymore) that was GAME OVER. Then I revealed that I was doctor, and you smartly retracted your vote. There is no other doctor; I am the doctor. But you and J don't believe me, you are still making the case against me, the doctor. I can understand not being fully persuaded that I am doctor, because it can't be verified either way, but anyway Volt and Galz seem inclined to believe it because there are more reasons why it would be true than reasons why it's not true (did you guys see my Day 2 exchange with Insomniac about another power role being in the game? I think that lends more evidence to what I'm saying). But the J and Insomniac don't buy it. I can't help but say to myself, "Why is this? I am the doctor, there are reasons why I am the doctor, why don't they agree that I am likely the doctor? Is it because they are mafia?" So then I went back and looked through the logs and concluded that yes, the two of you are mafia.
Look, I can understand thinking that well Robz is just going after the people who suspect him. Yes, I am going after the 2 people who suspect me, and yes I went after them a little bit on Day 2 when they each separately suspected me. If that makes you say, "OKay, Robz is mafia then," I probably can't change your mind, because those things did happen. But I think pages and pages of suspicious behavior on the part of J and Insomniac both individually and from the perspective of them being secretly in cahoots, it is more persuasive that me (and Volt, truly, somewhat) were targeted by the mafia beginning in Day 2 when we were most vulnerable (having led a bad lynch). And perhaps my reaction to being accused has led them to focusing on me more than Volt. I guess that could be a defect of the way I play, and truly it is putting the town in danger, because the town may lynch me, the doctor, because of how I have behaved. So I'm sorry for it, because it has strengthened the arguments of the mafia.
I can admit when arguments are compelling even when they are made against me. So yes, I find the argument that Robz plays too defensively and is hostile toward his accusers to be compelling. But I don't find compelling many, many many, many of the other things Insomniac has said about me, and I've gone over those already.
I voted for you on day 3 because I was sure on day 2 that you were mafia. I stayed on for a while after I voted as well because I thought it would be interesting if someone else voted for you. No one did, acting on the knowledge that I'm a town vanilla I took this to mean that you were mafia. Then when I checked back in you had roleclaimed so I unvoted. HOWEVER, while I still think your mafia the last post you made actually does help me think you are town. It does however put me back to square one on figuring out who mafia is if I am to assume that you are not.
The one thing that I have also realized is that you don't hedge. You CAN'T hedge. You've pushed the crusades against both lynches. The interesting thing to me is that you've been able to lead a crusade on 2 different people successfully without hedging. And all the while only I come out as suspecting you as strongly as I do.
I'm gonna do some re reading later and try and see if I can still believe the doctor claim, and if so where my suspicions do lie.
I also have not hedged. I have gone after you ruthlessly without cause. I implore you to think about that as I have thrown caution to the wind with regards to my living which you seem to think I hold dearly.
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For the record, and I can't let this slide, Robz DID hedge his bets against K early day 3 trying to distance himself from the kill.
More alarming than that, is Insomniac trying to back pedal now by using Robz's conviction as an argument for innocence. Insomniacs WHOLE CASE against Robz was how he was EVERYWHERE in his suspicions.
Lastly, Robz IF ANYTHING, bandwagoned the kill of K. He didn't lead the crusade. I did. Wrongly, but I did.
That last post from Insomniac raises a LOT of red flags with the number of falsehoods it contains.
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This "everyone but me and my partner" = nonsense. I have suspected everyone at least a little. That's the duty of the town: to do due dilligence and investigate every possibility. I have suspected some people more than others, and it is simply not the case that I've suspected Insomniac less than anyone else. Up until the end of Day 2, I suspected him as much as any of you, and going into to Day 3 I had him in a higher position than Volt, Galz, even Robz. But then the wind started blowing in a familiar way - everyone was agreeing Insomniac was mafia, no one was coming to his defense. With such a small town, that's an argument in and of itself. Whoever we target now, they've got to have a defender or they're not mafia.
But here's the problem. I notice that, I act on that, suddenly I'm Insomniac's defender. Now he has one, and it's me. So we appear, as we appear to Robz, to be mafia in cahoots. Well, that's a somewhat intractable problem.
Robz's strong tendency to react against accusations against him by accusing his accusers gives him a stronger scum read than Insomniac, who tends to react my pressing his suspicions against his chosen target. The fact is that Robz's crosshairs have also jumped around. Just look at his read on me throughout the game: back and forth, back and forth, whatever's convenient. Or , if he's town, whatever he's feeling at the moment. All of Volt's book posts involve indulging in the belief that each person might be mafia. I do the same thing. I indulge my hypotheticals out loud, I point to whoever seems like the strongest case AT THE MOMENT. I hope that others will read my thoughts and evaluating if that way of looking at things is helpful to them, if it informs their process.
This conviction = town, hedging = mafia thing, which, I'll point out, Robz said in the first place, it's way too simplistic. Sometime certain kinds of town players (cautious ones, like myself) will appear to be hedging. Likewise a certain kind of mafia play involves choosing a target and digging in. I don't find either of those playstyles to be evidence one way or another.
The thing is, when someone's allegiances or suspicions shift, WHY do they shift? That's where you'll find the useful information.
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As I said I'm going to be going back through it all later, I don't have a photo memory that recalls everything crystal clear like some people here.
When I post I will make a quoted post with all the information available that backs up my case. I will also try and present things i find that might contradict my case
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Alright, down to business. First up, by player, in alphabetical order, by day:
Galzria:
Day 1 Posts:
#21, #23, #25, #26, #72, #78, #81, #88, #93, #95, #98, #100, #116, #118, #122, #125, #128, #133, #134, #135, #138, #139, #145, #147, #151, #158, #170, #179, #183, #188, #202, #203, #207, #211
Posts of interest:
#72 - Cast vote on Voltgloss, because he has played very randomly to start.
#93 - Voice suspicion of Bozzball for voting Robz without reason.
#116 - Unvote Voltgloss. State belief that he has started directing his actions. Voice suspicion of Morgrim, but Mafia or Role, not sure.
#128 - Hone in on thoughts regarding Morgrim. Still not sure if he's Mafia, Role, or town playing poorly.
#138 - Rundown on reads so far. Warn against possible Morgrim mislynch. Vote Bozzball.
#151 - Laid out case for lynching Morgrim, laid out case for having vote cast on Bozzball.
#170 - Unvote Bozzball, Vote Morgrim
#202 - Explain why I didn't want to be associated with a Bozzball bandwagon.
#203 - Clarify above explanation, and show why "pointing-at-next-most-likely-suspect" seems suspicious.
#211 - Went to bed, and woke up during "Night 1"
Relevant Conclusions (read: How I see things NOW, looking back): I was only really suspicious of 3 people Day 1. I was CONSTANTLY wary of getting bad reads however. Morgrim, for all he did wrong, had his moments where I really did wonder - And I voiced this. My suspicions of Bozzball kind of held true all the way through. He never DID participate a lot, and I was warned very early to look for that as signs of Mafia play. Still, I wasn't willing to put my name on a bad lynch THEN, without more information. That's a town move, not a Mafia one. In the end I DID put my name on a bad lynch, but at least I (and everybody else) had ample reason to believe it was a decent choice.
Day 2 Posts:
#242, #245, #256, #261, #264, #265, #272, #273, #275, #276, #277, #286, #293, #296, #297, #306, #314, #318, #323, #324, #333, #335, #343, #345, #352, #353, #357, #359, #360, #361, #365, #367, #369, #373, #378, #382, #383, #389, #391, #396, #397, #407, #408, #412, #418, #420, #423, #425, #426, #430, #452, #453, #455, #471, #476, #490, #494, #497, #498, #500, #518, #519, #524, #528, #531, #533
Posts of interest:
#261 - First analytical post of the day. Suspicion orders listed. Suspect everybody, but highly suspicious of Jotheonah, and Kuildeous.
#264 - Defend myself from accusations by Kuildeous and Robz. Strengthen my case against Kuildeous.
#276 - Vote Axxle ;)
#277 - Put together an informational post only listing what I perceive to be each persons thoughts.
#286 - Show suspicion of the way Robz/Volt have been making their cases.
#306 - Dissect and defend Robz's accusations of ME made in post #295. I note that I don't like his methods or reasons, but understand his conclusions.
#360 - I state a firm belief that Jotheonah is town, and Kuildeous is Mafia. I also bump Voltgloss up to my #2 suspect, but note that Robz is very close behind.
#373 - Reconfirm Jotheonah as being completely innocent in my book, indicate a shift in opinion on bozzball from day 1.
#382 - My case against Kuildeous, laid out in full, for Voltgloss.
#407 - I suggest the idea that I could be wrong on Jotheonah. I don't THINK that I am, but given his unconditional support of me, and absolute desire from the start of day 2 to be my friend, this is a terrifying prospect.
#412 - I request a better argument against Robz from Insomniac than the one he's made. Too many straw-man cases in this game already, we don't need another.
#426 - My case against Kuildeous, laid out in full, for Jotheonah.
#452 - I wonder at Kuildeous's constant target switching
#471 - My "top 2" other Mafia prospects past Kuildeous change to... Insomniac and Robz! (Hmm... notice a trend with those two?)
#476 - I posit some interesting theories based on how I would see things if Kuildeous comes back Mafia, AND if he comes back Town. Volt reads possible Mafia both ways. Insomniac reads town if Kuildeous is innocent, and Robz reads Mafia. Also, more suspicion to J if K comes back town.
#500 - I point out how a bad lynch is actually probably better for us than a no lynch.
#528 - I'm the only one to support K in my willingness to kill a known town member (bozzball) to prevent a town-suicide situation by the Mafia NOT lynching him Night 2, and making us unable to get 3 town votes day 3.
#533 - Put my vote down on Kuildeous to stay.
Relevant Conclusions: Well, this is the day I could die for. My mistake was (near) fatal to the town, and put us at a HUGE disadvantage. I led the crusade against Kuildeous, and it's hard to put this blame anywhere else. I was fully aware Day 2 that if I was wrong, town would likely lose (see post #476), and all I can do now is try to prevent that from happening. I've misled twice, and am very hesitant to be the "leader" day 3 as well. While I fully believed in my case, I absolutely did not fail to observe where my thoughts would lie if I were wrong. I was wrong. The only thing that's changed since post #476 in my beliefs is that Insomniac now seems more Scum than Town to me. I wouldn't have thought it at the end of day 2, but his actions day 3 leave me leaning that way. One thing I'll say for myself here day 2: I never waivered. This could easily be spun in a positive light, or a negative, so I'll let you make your own conclusions. But I was always willing to listen to arguments against other people, even if I wasn't willing to change my vote.
Day 3 Posts:
#547, #548, #549, #552, #553, #558, #576, #579, #586, #592, #596, #598, #604, #612
Posts if interests:
#547 - I indicate that I'm quite willing to reconsider Insomniac's arguments, but that I'll also be looking closely at Kuildeous's suspects list.
#549 - I point out that Insomniac's vote on Robz can only really mean 1 of 2 things: Insomniac is Mafia, or Robz is. They COULD be both town, but that just doesn't fit with Insomniac's actions.
#552 - I debunk much of Robz's post, which had some nuggets of good info, but was largely misleading. Still believe Insomniac to be more likely Mafia based on instant day 3 vote. I didn't like that AT all.
#553 - I'm a bit thrown by Robz's claim. Not entirely buying it, but need time to think.
#558 - Recognition of my mistakes day 2. Accept responsibility for them.
#579 - Confirm that yes, I am playing day 3 a little more... "backround" than the first two days. I've led the town once (and arguably twice) into bad lynches. I want to make what I feel is a more informed decision today.
#592 - Kind of lay out my feelings up to this point. After considering Robz's claim more, and watching the back and forth between him and Insomniac, I'm leaning towards Robz being Doctor, not Mafia. Still not nearly sure enough to make that thought final.
#598 - Reaffirm again that I am very much on the fence between those two.
Relevant Conclusions: Well, I'm not sure yet that there are any for day 3 by itself. I've made too many mistakes in the past. I am being ultra-cautious today. Maybe too much so, but at this point, I don't care if that brings suspicion on me or makes me an easy target for the Mafia. I'm sure that most of the other townies feel the same way. We need to take our time and be sure of this vote. At this point, I'm not sure of a lot of things. I'm doing my best to figure them out.
Overall conclusions: Well, here we are. Looking back, prior to day 3, the only people I never really made a case against were: Tables, Jotheonah, and Insomniac. Yes, there were times I thought both J and I might be Mafia, but I never really flushed out those feelings. Don't take that to mean that I think they are NOW, just that I think I need to explore the chance that they MAY be more than some others. My most damning moment is certainly the result of my Day 2 actions, but if you can look past that as an honest mistake (and trying too hard to find Mafia hiding behind good (not suspicious) play), I think I've been very town focused. Still, a long way to go.
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Alright, putting in a pause here. I'm going to post this as part 1 of 6. I didn't expect to put so much effort into this, but of course, I can't help but go overboard. I'm going to do one of these posts for each person alive, and then one post putting together pairs based on play. My intention here is to help create an easy reference guide for everybody else as well to flip back through the days and see where each person made useful posts (and a list of every post they made, in case you just want to read up on even the seemingly irrelevant things they said).
Again, I ask that you hang with me. This isn't an easy assignment, but I think it will be largely beneficial to the town once complete. Feel free to disagree with any conclusions that I draw. I'm hoping this will lead me, as well as others who are unsure, to a more firm understanding of where we're at. I know some of you are busy for the next day or so, so I HOPE to have time to get through this all before we play ourselves into a loss. I'll always be watching anything new that gets added, even while diving into the past though, so I hope we can keep these conversations going.
Part 2 I hope to have up later tonight, and will be Insomniac.
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Alright, writing a book here. Attempting to limit the bias, for what it's worth.
Let me begin at the start of Day 2. First, Insomniac came out against R & V, then I enumerated my Day 1 case against Robz and Volt. Here it is, only slightly abridged. I stand by it.
I was going to say exactly the same thing as Insomniac. Robz and Voltgloss definitely initiated 90% of the suspicion against Morgrim, pushed the conversation back toward him when it started to wander elsewhere, and, as Insomniac pointed out, cast the penultimate votes. Robz began the Morgrim chatter at a time when he was being targeted for various reasons (Reply 83). He then jumped on Morgrim for the rather small thing of quickly jumping off the no lynch bandwagon - a bandwagon we all agree was bad and which I jumped off of just as quickly. When Morgrim suspicion starts to flag, VOltgloss comes in with the very stirring post #114.
Robz started the suspicion but delayed his vote - perhaps hoping we'd remember the latter but forget the former? Then Voltgloss told Robz not to vote yet and said he wouldn't vote, but after catching Morgrim in a lie, he voted. We all said we would wait for Tables' analysis. Tables had a history of defending Morgrim. Before the analysis we were all waiting for arrived, Robz, with Volt's support, put down his vote.
Was Morgrim's lie (or, as it turns out, blunder) worth all that?
Both Robz and VG are experienced players, and I think our mafia's play so far has been advanced enough to suggest a veteran.
Some possible objections, and rebuttals:
1) Voltgloss was the one who first pointed out Robz' disparity in posting attitudes and cast early suspicion on him. So if that was all an act to throw us off the trail, it was a gutsy one. But that conflict disappated fairly quickly, and I do believe these two to be capable of that level of deception and complex play.
2) Voltgloss went to a lot of trouble to explain why a no-lynch vote was bad for the town and good for the mafia, at a point when no one had shared that viewpoint and at least two of us were content to ignorantly sabotage ourselves. A Mafioso would not have missed that opportunity - he would have at least waited to see if the rest of the town jumped on the no-lynch bandwagon.
Of course, this is something I said about Voltgloss early on:
Of course, another potential mafia tactic would be to set yourself up as the group's leader by being very vocal, thus giving yourself a position of safety in rounds to come.
And also, though no lynch is bad for the town, it's not as good for the mafia as lynching a townie is, right?
All in all, these two, as a team, are my top suspects right now. I think this narrative pretty well jives with what went down.
There were a few issues with this that Volt picked apart when we had our spat, including that I had the timing of his vote wrong. I stand by my apology and my claim that that was an innocent error.
Immediately after this K, who we now know was town, basically agreed with me re: Robz while suggesting my case against Volt was weaker and that if they were a team it would be a little obvious and a little sloppy.
Then Robz chimes in with his post. It actually does corroborate his doctor claim, in retrospect:
Him [Tables] and Kuildeous both had the opportunity to vote for Morgrim but didn't, so I expected one of them to die.
He says a lot more in the post. The key takeaways are that he accuses me (his first post after I accused him) and he accuses Insomniac (ditto) and he more or less clears Volt.
I respond, defending against accusations against me and saying I get a town read on G. (#257, page 11)
Next, Volt posts. His post has three themes: Defending himself, accusing me (and expending MANY words doing it), and dispelling, in various ways, the notion that he and Robz could be partners. He also says this:
Incidentally, I would be surprised if both Insomniac and jotheonah are Mafia. To come right out with a 1-2 punch on Day 2 like that against people they (if both Mafia) know to be townies? That would be extremely suspicious on Day 3 if they succeed. Just the same way that it'd be very odd for me and Robz - if we were both Mafia - to come down so hard on Morgrim on Day 1.
Robz, I think this deserves an answer from you. The very same argument you have relied on as to why you and Volt are not a team applies to me and Insomniac. Please tell me why one would be valid and the other wouldn't.
He also says this:
You'll note I haven't tried to defend Robz. That's because I haven't reviewed his Day 1 posts yet. I need to do that before deciding whether Robz is or isn't worthy of suspicion.
As far as I know, the Day 1 Robz analysis never emerged.
Then insomniac posted. I find his posts really hard to follow, but I'm noticing he harps a lot about his clean conscience and all the voting he hasn't done. That's been a theme today too. It does read a little scummy, doesn't it? He unvotes for Robz here.
Then Galzria writes a book. He basically suspects everyone, but especially me and Kuildeous. Re-reading, his points about V are interesting. in V's post, he's all like "What bad arguments did I make against Morgrim?" and G's all like "well actually, these arguments you made weren't so hot"
I post, admitting that a V-R pairing is a little too neat. I mostly turn my suspicion on R, although later on V seems to read it as an indictment of him.
Then some other stuff happens. Under Galzria's care, the Kildeous wagon starts to pick up speed.
Galzria tallies who is suspicious of whom and Robz and Volts are still, in aggregate, the town's top suspects.
Volts rolls out his big attack on me.
I immediately craft a pretty damn sexy rebuttal.
Galzria stops suspecting me.
Kuildeous stops suspecting Robz and targets Volt.
Volt chooses not to respond to my rebuttal at all and then goes into hiding for a while claiming to have talked too much.
Galzria continues to push really hard for that K wagon, and also suspects Volt again.
Other stuff happens. I tentatively join the K wagon.
Insomniac begins his Robz crusade (we're on post 326 now, and I gotta quit for now)
So far in this readthrough I'm seeing Robz look a little better, in particular his doctor claim (With the one he pointed out and the one I caught I'm seeing at least two vaguely corroborating points). Volt is looking worse. Galz is looking a bit worse. Insomniac is just super hard to read - it's the bad town vs bad mafia problem. Hopefully I will finish this in a bit.
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Chopping out a lot to get to two quick points:
in V's post, he's all like "What bad arguments did I make against Morgrim?" and G's all like "well actually, these arguments you made weren't so hot"
First: This summation made me lol.
Other stuff happens. I tentatively join the K wagon.
I believe that to be a gross misrepresentation of the facts. You got on the K-train fairly quickly behind me, and barely got off of it (I think you were regretting getting on so early, but to what end, I havn't concluded). You then rejoined and stayed on the whole time. I *never* got a "tentative" read from you about it. In fact, that WAS the reason I cleared you in my book at the time - I just couldn't see the Mafia throwing their weight so quickly behind me when my suspicions of K were so far outside anybody else's at the time. This theory generally held true coming into day 3, but going back (and re-reading some of my OWN points about what an innocent K could mean), I'm now questioning it a little bit more.
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Apparently Galz and I are on the same wave length here. I'm going to cede the project to him for the moment. In a moment I will post the promised point-by-point rebuttal for Robz.
Volt, I can take you up on the "Why don't I believe there are no town roles:" (with the caveat that I am wavering a bit on it) It was really just a gut feeling based on the fact that two nights had gone by with no evidence of our town role being helpful and no town claims or accidental let slips. An application of Occam's Razor suffices I guess. If one explanation is that the town role exists but has managed to stay completely secret and the other is that the role simply doesn't exist, the latter seemed simpler to me.
Combine that with the fact that I see NO benefit in Robz (as town) claiming his role when he did. A town should only claim if (A) he's in danger of being lynched (IMMEDIATE DANGER) or (B) the claim provides useful information about who is mafia. Was either of those the case? I think not.
Galz:
Maybe "tentatively" was a bad choice of words. I joined the wagon, but I didn't really add to the case against him and I didn't cast a vote. I just said "Yeah, the stuff you have on him looks legit" That's all I was trying to convey.
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Galz:
Maybe "tentatively" was a bad choice of words. I joined the wagon, but I didn't really add to the case against him and I didn't cast a vote. I just said "Yeah, the stuff you have on him looks legit" That's all I was trying to convey.
Fair enough. I don't take any issue with that statement. I suppose I just read what you meant a little wrong. Thank you for the clarification.
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Okay, I'm back with a mammoth post that includes strong accusations. First, Voltgloss asked for thoughts on Bozzball. I think that everybody, including people I no longer trust, did a good job of laying out why the mafia killed Bozzball. Here's my take, though I think it's similar to other people's:
Bozzball was assumed innocent, and the mafia don't want people like that hanging around. Also, in a weird sense, he presented a wildcard, because it was hard to tell which way he would eventually vote. And his vote would matter today, because there's 5 of us. So I can see the mafia deciding that they've done fine up until now convincing the vocal, core people to do the wrong thing--why take the chance of screwing that up by leaving in someone who is only casually connected to the game? What if he gets replaced by somebody else before the lynch deadline and this person really gets it--a fresh pair of eyes, or something--and the mafia go down? So, I think they decided just to keep rolling with the way things are going and prevent this uninvolved wildcard person from having any influence in this round of the game.
And now, more importantly, I am willing to venture a guess as to who the 2 mafia are.
Note the bold text. So Robz's own reasoning for the mafia killing bozzball hinges on him being confident that the mafia orchestrated the bad lynches - "convinced vocal people to do the wrong thing." That flat out does not line up with a picture of me and Insomniac as the mafia. I did very little convincing on either day - Robz and Volt led the first charge, Galzria the second. Insomniac barely participated in either lynch, as he is so fond of pointing out. Robz probably put this part first, before he named us, to obscure this inconsistency.
I am the doctor. Galzria and Voltgloss seem to be leaning toward believing me. Jtheonah seems to be leaning toward thinking I'm mafia. Insomniac is convinced I'm mafia. I believe this clears things up, at least for me.
The mafia are Insomniac and Jtheonah.
We are mafia because we don't believe a suspicious, weirdly-timed, unnecessary role claim. That is what Robz just said.
First of all, I do NOT say this with certainty. I say it with likelihood. In my mind, it is the most likely scenario. I've reached this conclusion by going back over Day 2 from the standpoint that they are mafia and seeing what statements corroborate this view.
J came out swinging against me early on Day 2. It wasn't super aggressive, but he definitely singled me out as the most suspicious, or at least slightly more suspicious than Volt. I took slight umbrage at that, because hey, plenty of other people voted Morgrim, including him, and he read like a hedger to me with his line about no longer thinking it was Morgrim but still doing that vote. But then, here's the thing: He backed off me. Later in the day (but still early on) we get this from him, where he startes moving away from suspecting me:
As for whether it's Robz or Volt, I was leaning toward Robz but the more I think about it the more I suspect Volt. I'll have to take a really close look to figure out which of them is mafia, but I'm so very sure one of them is.
[Remember that he will eventually go on to quarrel with Insomniac (which I believe was just for the sake of not appearing in tandem) and ultimately vote Kuildeous. And Insomniac considers ME to be the guy who throws too much suspicion around???]
Having just re-read, I can say that this quote is an odd one to take out of context. My Day 2 position was pretty consistent even though it wasn't focused on one person. Initially I thought Robz and Volt were a team. Others convinced me this was unlikely. At that point I continued to waiver between the two of them as suspects.
Knowing ONE of them was mafia, that left ONE other mafia among the non-Morgrim voters. Focusing my energies on the R-V problem, I chose to trust Galzria on the other problem. His reasons seemed good to me. I joined the K wagon.
At this point, by the way, J and Insomniac's suspicions line up perfectly. I can even independently verify that via third party:
These will attempt to be organized by level of suspicion (highest first):
Insomniac suspects: Voltgloss, Robz888
Jotheonah suspects: Voltgloss, Robz888
Then things change. Galzria begins to suspect Kuildeous. Voltgloss is also suspicious of Kuildeous. I can say that my thinking about K very much went 180 degrees, I admit that (I actually saved him in the night!). But I was persuaded that at least one of the mafia may have decided not to vote for Morgrim, because they didn't need to. And now J, despite being most suspicious of me and Volt, gets on the K bandwagon. but as J's public suspicions of me drop, and his suspicion of K goes up, Insomniac does the opposite. He very much adopts the mantle of anti-Robz player. Of course, J still leaves the possibility of me and Volt open with this post:
I still believe the most plausible thing at this point is that either Robz or Volt is one mafia and Kuildeaous is the other. Insomniac's last posts have been strange and not that helpful - vague, partly inaccurate, not definitive. But they don't necessarily read mafia to me.
So to reiterate, I am not setting myself up with a single post. I am continuing to advocate the somewhat complex position I've been advocating all day: That R or V is one mafia and K is the other.
Great! He can kill K this round, while setting himself up to rejoin his mafia partner Insomniac next round in the killing of me (or possibly Volt in case of some weird circumstances). Next, Galz casts the first vote for K. Thing are definitely moving against K. Meanwhile, Insomniac and me have this exchange:
An aside not related to tables it IS possible according to the setup that there may or may not be another town power role. This is an important fact that
nobody has claimed to be them.
Nobody has claimed it because there has been no reason to claim it, I assume. They should only claim it if they know something or if they are about to be accidentally lynched.
There was no reason for Insomniac to bring this up. One possible read of this to me now is him trying to provoke some discussion of who the other role is, because that's something the mafia want to know. My response was a polite reminder that we shouldn't talk about that, let our other role person do their thing in secret for now, obviously! But as the doctor, I didn't want Insomniac's comment to lead the rest of you into thinking there wasn't another role townie at all, so this is why I made this comment. (And come on, Insomniac's comment is just stupid. It is NOT an important fact that no one has claimed to be some special townie--it's just an obvious strategy on the part of that person. I don't believe anybody else would have said something like that. Insomniac said it because he is using mafia thinking.) And on we go...
Okay, Insomnaic turns up the heat against me and actually casts a vote. J tests the waters about returning to suspecting me, starts to publicly walk back his K suspicion. As it becomes clear that me and Volt and Galz will all adamantly vote for K, he again goes back to voting K. Really, this makes good sense for the mafia.
As I said at the time, no it doesn't. I am not so stupid a mafia player that I attempt the same ineffective strategy to pre-emptively clear my name that so spectacularly failed last round. Last minute second-guessing is something I do as a town who has every reason to lack confidence in the town's lynching ability and it's perfectly defensible in that light.
J and Insomniac go on to quarrel slightly, and J casts some healthy suspicion on his partner, and then they land on the opposite sides of the vote. But really, it's a trivial distinction to them. In fact, it's better that way. The townie K dies this round with J's vote. Next round, Insomniac gets to sound like Mr. Correct as he goes directly after me. Meanwhile, J can slowly pretend to be swayed by Insomniac's analysis (even though he has had it out for me since the start of Day 2), and hope that this spectacle ropes in Volt, or more likely, Galz. I believe this is the mafia win scenario by the way: Insomniac and J convince Galz to vote for me. Of course it's easier with Bozzball gone, because who knows what he would do.
What does all this mean?
I think we see a clear strategy on the part of the mafia: Accuse the same people when it matters, but vote on opposite sides because the voting doesn't matter when there aren't any mafia up for lynching and it's better not to seem in tandem. There was no reason for them to do anything other than one for Morgrim, one not voting in the first round. That was enough to have Morgrim killed, and then no matter which group of voters came under suspicion in Day 2, they were split up so as not to appear suspicious. They picked me and Volt to go after (easy targets because of the Morgrim vote) but when the town moved against another innocent, K, they reverted to the plan: have one person vote for the kill and have the other refrain. In this round, the round that matters, J is trying to nuance the fact that he is on Insomniac's side. I believe that this is why: He is always been on Insomniac's side. They are the mafia.
Ok, I'll admit I'm trying to nuance it. Mainly because I DON'T trust Insomniac. It's very possible he's Voltgloss's partner. But also. Even if I'm NOT working with Insomniac, do you blame me for trying not to look like I'm working with Insomniac? Everyone thinks he's mafia. Coming out and saying "Hey this guy and I think alike" is not a good way to get listened to, whichever side I'm on.
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Okay. I obviously thought about this a lot. I began with the belief that Insomniac had to be mafia and went from there. J is his most likely associate, and I think the history backs this up. Am I positive? No. But does it seem most likely to me? Yes.
(This is of course only in addition to the volume of evidence that already incriminates Insomniac individually: namely the fact that he says misleading things all the time. He is the only player who does that.)
I will give them both a chance to respond, and then I will drop a vote on Insomniac. I expect Insomniac and J to cast their votes for me soon. But it all comes down to Volt and Galz, whom I hope and expect to agree with me: that Insomniac is the most likely person to be mafia, based on his misleading statements, his rejection of my roleclaim, and his voting and accusal pattern. And that J is by far his likely mafia partner, backed up by the evidence of how their strategies have played off each other on previous days.
And that's my say.
Well the good thing is that you're voting for Insomniac first. And I still am 50/50 on him. If we kill Insomniac and he turns up town, I'll be sad. But, slightly less sad than if you kill me. Although, I guess it all amounts to the same thing.
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Alright, part 2 of 6:
Insomniac:
Day 1 Posts:
#28, #30, #34, #37, #38, #115
Posts of interest:
None. No, really, none. MAYBE #115, but eh.
Relevant Conclusions: Well, what can I say here? Either you suspect him for being so absent or you don't. There isn't any substance to make a verdict on.
Day 2 Posts:
#247, #249, #260, #270, #317, #326, #346, #349, #350, #354, #371, #387, #390, #393, #394, #406, #409, #410, #413, #415, #432, #433, #436, #440, #442, #459, #462, #463, #470, #474, #483, #487, #491, #495, #496, #502, #505, #506, #513, #515
Posts of interest:
#247 - Suspects Volt & Robz, votes Volt, comes out defending his actions day 1
#260 - Stands by Volt suspicion, unvotes, defends himself by claiming he was drawing too much attention to be Mafia
#270 - Claims we should be suspicious of everyone
#326 - Full summary. Volt drops in suspicion, Robz raises. Not sure of K, leaning town for G,leaning mafia for J, thinks bozz is town.
#349 - Solidifies his case that Robz is primary finger pointer. Quotes Robz's first day 2 analysis post.
#393 - Dissects Tables death, regresses suspicion of J, inquires about other roles in game.
#406 - More back and forth with Robz,, still suspects Volt.
#409 - Votes Robz, flips 180 degrees on bozzball. He's now #2 suspect.
#432 - Fully lays out case for Robz/Bozzball.
#440 - Stays on Robz, keeps Volt door open.
#462 - Makes case for what order Mafia would vote. #4 least likely to be Mafia.
#474 - Claims if K turns up town, he would be killed at night for being on the right track.
#483 - Defends K on the basis that K is all but lynched anyway, so must be town.
#495 - Goes after Galz for not supporting his arguments.
#502 - Suspicious of J for specifying when he planned on voting if nothing new arose.
#506 - Gives suspicion levels. Volt dropped WAY down (see: R-V pairing). Galz up (see R-G & G-J)
#513 - TINAS play ("go ahead, lynch me! I wish you would") Wrongly accuses Robz of driving K-train.
Relevant Conclusions: Well, polar opposite of day 1. I never felt misgivings of I during day 2, but compiling and looking back, there is a lot to be wary of. There was a LOT of hedging, though he stayed mostly on Robz. Does things that don't mesh with day 3 play. His claim in #270 that we should be suspicious... Then attacks for actually being so! Says lynch vote #4 is where the Mafia won't want to be (#462), then comes out against Rob for being #4. Flips for no reason about bozzball (he was wrong about, btw). Just a lot to be uncertain of. Still, I want to review everyone equally here, so moving on.
Day 3 Posts:
#546 - Votes Robz in first post
#559 - Unvotes in second post
#560 - Defends why he is still alive, claims to be #1 suspect from day 2 and easiest target.
#564 - Continues after Rob (this is no longer noteworthy), appears to play "who's more suspicious", arguing he brings more carryover suspicion from day 2.
#583 - Suspects Volt... For suspecting him.
#585 - Defends bozzball as the correct target for the Mafia.
#587 - Defends bozzball kill again, reaffirms suspicions of those who suspect him (mostly Volt)
#603 - Culmination of R/I feud, same arguments from both sides.
#608 - Starts wanting to back off Robz.
#611 - Claims to still think Robz is Mafia, but starts pulling off.
Relevant Conclusions: Well, nothing's changed for me. Day 3 still has me leaning Mafia. His tit-for-tat with Robz about suspecting those who suspect you is a HUGE pot calling kettle after posts #583 and #587. Still, Robz isn't exactly squeaky clean in all of this and I'll continue to withhold final judgment until I look over everyone. But I don't think, looking at all 3 days here, that my gut feeling got any better here.
--Note: I realize I may not always come across as 100% objective when trying to sum up relative posts. I'm doing my best, but I encourage everyone to review them yourselves and see if I was fair or not.--
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Okay, in this post I am just trying to answer a couple questions that were thrown my way.
Incidentally, I would be surprised if both Insomniac and jotheonah are Mafia. To come right out with a 1-2 punch on Day 2 like that against people they (if both Mafia) know to be townies? That would be extremely suspicious on Day 3 if they succeed. Just the same way that it'd be very odd for me and Robz - if we were both Mafia - to come down so hard on Morgrim on Day 1.
Robz, I think this deserves an answer from you. The very same argument you have relied on as to why you and Volt are not a team applies to me and Insomniac. Please tell me why one would be valid and the other wouldn't.
Well, to be fair, this is not exactly my argument, it's Volt's. All I've said on that subject is, Volt and I have been very close, and I know that we are not a co-mafia pair, so I understand that it is possible for 2 non-mafia players to work closely together without automatically deserving suspicion. However, I don't think that analogy applies exactly to you and Insomniac. Your voting patterns diverged wildly, while your accusations dovetailed at important junctions. So you're relationship with Insomniac is sort of in that middle ground, in my view, where it's suspicious.
AlsoCombine that with the fact that I see NO benefit in Robz (as town) claiming his role when he did. A town should only claim if (A) he's in danger of being lynched (IMMEDIATE DANGER) or (B) the claim provides useful information about who is mafia. Was either of those the case? I think not.
We are mafia because we don't believe a suspicious, weirdly-timed, unnecessary role claim. That is what Robz just said.
I gather that J takes issue with my roleclaim. I can't deny that it generates suspicion, however it is neither weirdly-timed nor unnecessary. Let me explain.
First of all, the only reason to keep my role secret is to derive some benefit from the power later on. With the doctor, this means preventing the mafia's target from dying. So, right before I declared, this was the question: Will my power ever be useful? In order for it to be useful, the following things would have to happen:
1). I am not lynched by the town today. (I can't use the power if I'm dead.)
2). The town lynches a mafia. (I can't use my power if the game ends due to mafia victory.)
3). The mafia must select someone other than me to die, and I must also select that person.
I thought the odds of all of these things happening was very, very low. So the negatives of roleclaiming seemed low.
On the contrary, it seemed my Doctor status would be most useful in narrowing down the possible mafia suspects at this absolutely critical juncture. I mean, I suppose you have to believe me for it to matter, and again I hope I have given you a lot of good reasons to believe me. But... why would I sit on information that clears me, and is unlikely to ever be useful again or matter later anyway? And why would I wait to reveal until right before the hammer drops? First of all, we are only talking 3 votes to kill here, and Insomniac had put one on me before the sun was even up on Day 3.
I can tell you, and you'll just have to trust me I guess--if I were not the Doctor, and like, Galzria was, I would want Galzria to say so at this point in the game. It's more evidence to weigh, and it could very well be the difference between killing the right person and killing the wrong person today.
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Oh, how I wish I had time today/tomorrow to spend on these games.
But alas work consumed me today as I predicted it would. It's 1:30 a.m. here and I am still plowing ahead.
I'll try to weigh in with substance Wednesday evening. Hopefully it won't be sleep-deprived substance.
I really have to thank everyone for posting "books" while I'm swamped in RL. I use quotes jokingly, but I actually like having long posts to read when I finally sit down to prepare my own analysis. I definitely think we should wait for Galzria's 6-part magnum opus to conclude before casting any votes. If that means Thursday rather than Wednesday, well, so be it. We have the weekend if we need it.
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My next post (Jotheonah) will be slightly delayed, as I'm meeting friends in the morning to spend time with their doggy who is dying of cancer. :'( I hope to have 2 more installments up by tomorrow night, leaving just Volt and pairings for Thursday.
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First of all, the only reason to keep my role secret is to derive some benefit from the power later on. With the doctor, this means preventing the mafia's target from dying. So, right before I declared, this was the question: Will my power ever be useful? In order for it to be useful, the following things would have to happen:
1). I am not lynched by the town today. (I can't use the power if I'm dead.)
2). The town lynches a mafia. (I can't use my power if the game ends due to mafia victory.)
3). The mafia must select someone other than me to die, and I must also select that person.
I thought the odds of all of these things happening was very, very low. So the negatives of roleclaiming seemed low.
On the contrary, it seemed my Doctor status would be most useful in narrowing down the possible mafia suspects at this absolutely critical juncture. I mean, I suppose you have to believe me for it to matter, and again I hope I have given you a lot of good reasons to believe me. But... why would I sit on information that clears me, and is unlikely to ever be useful again or matter later anyway? And why would I wait to reveal until right before the hammer drops? First of all, we are only talking 3 votes to kill here, and Insomniac had put one on me before the sun was even up on Day 3.
I can tell you, and you'll just have to trust me I guess--if I were not the Doctor, and like, Galzria was, I would want Galzria to say so at this point in the game. It's more evidence to weigh, and it could very well be the difference between killing the right person and killing the wrong person today.
Again I ask, what information does your doctor claim give the town that we did not have before?
Also, if you are town, you're right that the odds of 1, 2, and 3 above lining up were low. But now they are much, much lower. You've improved the chance the town won't lynch you, but only somewhat, since we might believe you. You've greatly increased the chance the mafia WILL lynch you. You've made it very unlikely that the mafia will pick a predictable target, knowing there's a Doctor out there.
If you had continued to sit on your role, you might have had one more chance to use it. And with so few people it would be a better chance than you've had so far. So this still makes zero sense to me as town play.
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First of all, the only reason to keep my role secret is to derive some benefit from the power later on. With the doctor, this means preventing the mafia's target from dying. So, right before I declared, this was the question: Will my power ever be useful? In order for it to be useful, the following things would have to happen:
1). I am not lynched by the town today. (I can't use the power if I'm dead.)
2). The town lynches a mafia. (I can't use my power if the game ends due to mafia victory.)
3). The mafia must select someone other than me to die, and I must also select that person.
I thought the odds of all of these things happening was very, very low. So the negatives of roleclaiming seemed low.
On the contrary, it seemed my Doctor status would be most useful in narrowing down the possible mafia suspects at this absolutely critical juncture. I mean, I suppose you have to believe me for it to matter, and again I hope I have given you a lot of good reasons to believe me. But... why would I sit on information that clears me, and is unlikely to ever be useful again or matter later anyway? And why would I wait to reveal until right before the hammer drops? First of all, we are only talking 3 votes to kill here, and Insomniac had put one on me before the sun was even up on Day 3.
I can tell you, and you'll just have to trust me I guess--if I were not the Doctor, and like, Galzria was, I would want Galzria to say so at this point in the game. It's more evidence to weigh, and it could very well be the difference between killing the right person and killing the wrong person today.
Again I ask, what information does your doctor claim give the town that we did not have before?
Given that I am Doctor, I cannot be mafia. It narrows down the possible choices for mafia to 4, rather than 5. And it gives you another criteria for evaluating whether I have acted honestly and innocently.
Also, if you are town, you're right that the odds of 1, 2, and 3 above lining up were low. But now they are much, much lower. You've improved the chance the town won't lynch you, but only somewhat, since we might believe you. You've greatly increased the chance the mafia WILL lynch you. You've made it very unlikely that the mafia will pick a predictable target, knowing there's a Doctor out there.
If you had continued to sit on your role, you might have had one more chance to use it. And with so few people it would be a better chance than you've had so far. So this still makes zero sense to me as town play.
Right, now I will die tonight for sure, but one of us has to die and I can still win as long as we get mafia today and mafia tomorrow. As I've said, in order to do that, I suspect we have to vote Insomniac today and you tomorrow. But if I hadn't revealed, I would have either been lynched today, or, we would have lynched the wrong person and lost, or here's the other scenario: I convince everybody to believe me and we lynch, let's say Insomniac. We find out he's mafia--I was right, yay!--and who dies in the night? Probably me. And I can't even stop that with my doctor power because I can't use it on myself. So I didn't see the Doctor power ever factoring in again.
I guess I should ask: Do you question whether it was a wise roleclaim because: 1) You don't believe the claim, and it's timing makes it more suspect to you, or 2) You believe it but disgaree that it was a tactically sound choice for the town. If it's 2, we should just agree to disagree. If it's 1, than yeah, it merits as much discussion as you want.
(I don't mean to be obsessing over certain points, I am just trying to answer all direct questions and challenges.)
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Well, I am coming around to 2. But when I put myself in Dr. Robz Townie's shoes, I can't see myself making that call. Whereas when I put myself in Godfather Robz Mafioso's shoes I can absolutely see myself making that claim. So it makes you MORE suspicious to me. Along with the tone and timing of your post accusing me. You're not looking good, but, yeah, all of these things I can also imagine a plausible town read for.
If you're town then I think the dream team has to be Volt-Insomniac, a team that I have by no means ruled out. And if that is the case then a vote for Insomniac would be a fine thing. Actually if you're mafia, I still think the team is Volt-you, so I'd be pretty comfortable voting for Volt if two other people felt like joining me. I just don't see that happening right now so it doesn't seem like a productive charge to lead ATM. Otherwise, we just need to lynch the correct side of the Robz/Insomniac duality.
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Two things.
One: I would like to hear more from Robz on the Doctor-roleclaim-strategy front. Specifically:
Also, if you are town, you're right that the odds of 1, 2, and 3 above lining up were low. But now they are much, much lower. You've improved the chance the town won't lynch you, but only somewhat, since we might believe you. You've greatly increased the chance the mafia WILL lynch you. You've made it very unlikely that the mafia will pick a predictable target, knowing there's a Doctor out there.
If you had continued to sit on your role, you might have had one more chance to use it. And with so few people it would be a better chance than you've had so far. So this still makes zero sense to me as town play.
Right, now I will die tonight for sure, but one of us has to die and I can still win as long as we get mafia today and mafia tomorrow. As I've said, in order to do that, I suspect we have to vote Insomniac today and you tomorrow. But if I hadn't revealed, I would have either been lynched today, or, we would have lynched the wrong person and lost, or here's the other scenario: I convince everybody to believe me and we lynch, let's say Insomniac. We find out he's mafia--I was right, yay!--and who dies in the night? Probably me. And I can't even stop that with my doctor power because I can't use it on myself. So I didn't see the Doctor power ever factoring in again.
I guess I should ask: Do you question whether it was a wise roleclaim because: 1) You don't believe the claim, and it's timing makes it more suspect to you, or 2) You believe it but disgaree that it was a tactically sound choice for the town. If it's 2, we should just agree to disagree. If it's 1, than yeah, it merits as much discussion as you want.[/quote]
If I'm construing jotheonah's post correctly - and J, check me if I'm not - he is saying this (COMPLETE PARAPHRASING, despite my use of quotes):
"If you were really Doctor, you wouldn't have roleclaimed when you did. By roleclaiming, you make it a certainty that you will die before you get to use your Doctor power. If we lynch town today, we lose; if we lynch mafia today, the other mafia will kill you.
BUT, if you were Doctor and did NOT roleclaim, you'd have a chance to use your power. You could still argue why you're Town without having to roleclaim. And because the roleclaim isn't provable, it doesn't actually bolster your claim to be Town. If you don't roleclaim, and we lynch mafia today, there's a decent chance that the mafia would try to kill one of the other remaining townies in the night - who you could then save.
But by roleclaiming, you make it a certainty that your Doctor role never matters again. Either we lose today by mislynching, or you die in the night at the Mafia's hands. So roleclaiming only hurts your position, and therefore doesn't make sense - unless you're Mafia."
I think this is jotheonah's argument. It's a reasonable one. I don't know yet that I agree with it, but it's a reasonable one.
Robz, so far I think your explanation for why you roleclaimed is "I was in danger of a Mafia quickhammer if Insomniac is town, and roleclaimed to convince Insomniac - if he is town - to unvote." I may be missing nuances. If so, please set me straight.
So the question then is: jotheonah has argued that Robz's roleclaiming Doctor did nothing but hurt your position (assuming you are Doctor). It doesn't make you safer from the lynch; it only makes you the prime target at night. If you were Doctor you wouldn't willingly hurt your position; ergo, you must actually be Mafia. Robz, what is your response?
----
And now, the second thing. Apologies in advance if someone already brought up this line of thought and I missed it. I don't recall seeing it, but I've been skimming.
Who do we think the Mafia Rolecop has investigated each night?
The answer to this will, of course, depend on who you're considering as the Mafia pair. But it has me wondering. Let's say, for sake of argument, that the Mafia pair does not include Robz. That means Robz is Doctor as he claims. And it means one of the Mafiosi is Insomniac. OK.
Night 1 they kill Tables. Why Tables? We've talked about this before. He was a voice of reason, an experienced player, one of the few who didn't vote for Morgrim - all in all, someone who would likely (1) be good at scumhunting and (2) be good at swaying others. Makes perfect sense to kill him.
So who do they investigate? Maybe the other admittedly experienced player in the game? Someone else with well-reasoned posts? Not quite so Town-vibey as Tables given his participation in the lynch, but still someone that the Mafia should be wary of?
Yes, I'm thinking it likely that a Mafia pair including Insomniac would, on Night 1, be more likely to investigate Robz than anyone else.
This puts Insomniac's vendetta against Robz on Day 2 in a significantly sharper light.
"But why didn't they kill him on Night 2?" you ask. Using jotheonah's analysis, the answer is clear: Robz's Doctor role doesn't help him avoid the lynch. He can't prove it. And as one of the four lynchers, he's just as suspicious as the rest of us. Being Doctor doesn't help him Day 3. So it wasn't a big deal to avoid killing him Night 2.
"But he might have saved the Night 2 target!" you say. That all depends on how likely the Mafia thought Robz would pick bozzball to save. Sure, most of us thought bozzball was Town - but he was also non-participating Town. And Kuildeous had just got done warning us all how terrible it would be if we were left with 4 + bozzball on Day 3. Now, that didn't save K. It didn't convince me, it didn't convince others. BUT... with K revealed as Town after his lynch, it would be reasonable for the Mafia to think, "Hmm. Now that K is revealed Town his arguments will read better to the other Townies. The Doctor might buy into his argument that bozzball's survival is bad for the Town. That means the Doctor won't save bozzball. Which of course means we should kill bozzball."
So yeah. I'd appreciate hearing others' thoughts on this.
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I have a question for you, J. What happened to your suspicion of Galzria, as laid out in post #555?
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Blah, apologies for the wrecked quote boxes two posts back. I'll repost with them fixed if anyone needs it.
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Volt, read my post #592, and you'll see how my thought process jives with yours regarding bozz being killed.
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Volt: I have no qualms with your paraphrase of my argument. That is exactly what I meant to say.
What happened to my suspicion of Galzria? Nothing. That is, I'd still like to hear people's thoughts on the question I laid out there: If Galzria is town, and we all believe he's town, and he'd be nigh-unlynchable, why the heck hasn't he been nightkilled? Does anyone else have thoughts on this? Am I wrong that it's weird?
You're wondering why I didn't include that above when I said you were the most likely counterpart to Robz/Insomniac, since, if I assume my own innocence, there really are only two choices.
The short answer is, you've done more to arouse my suspicions the last two days than Galz (but less than Robz or Insomniac). So at this point I'm MORE comfortable making a decision on that dichotomy than on the R/I one.
The thing is, I can't really expect anyone else to be, because a pretty key piece of evidence is my own certainty of my innocence. The issue is muddier for Galzria, since I think I've been more suspicious than he, and muddier still for R/I, whichever is town. So I have not been laying into you. Nor have I been carefully investigating your past posts.
If y'all want to put a pin in "Robz or Insomniac?" and play "J or V or G?" with me I guess we can do that. But it seems like Galzria's opus will serve us pretty well in both games, and this one seems like it's going somewhere.
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I appreciate your explanation, jotheonah. Thanks.
I don't think it's that helpful to play "J or V or G" at this point, for the simple reason that I'd rather the Town have a 50% chance of being wrong than a 66% chance. If we pick right between R and I, we'll have plenty of time to play J or V or G on Day 4. (I'm assuming here that if we pick right, the Mafia will kill the lead proponent of that successful lynch - R if I is lynched, I if R is lynched - thus leaving the three of us to duke it out Day 4.)
Back to work for me now. Galzria, I saw and appreciate your reference to an earlier post re: the Rolecop question. I also want to read more of your magnum opus before weighing in substantively again. Thanks again for putting so much hard work into that. Even if you are Mafia. :)
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So I'm back on the Robz train. I'm actually sick today so this wont be a very in depth post but I have reasons to believe so. They are Robz roleclaim is to get the town to lose, I have reasons to believe this.
Tables suspected Robz (lightly in post 111). He mentioned he wasn't as suspicious later. But I believe Tables would have still investigated Robz in the night. Robz has a silver tongue and is an experienced player. I see no reason to not investigate him on day 1 especially if you have suspicions towards him.
Night 2 bozzball was killed. And I want to talk about this again because I believe there was an additional reason I had overlooked. bozzball is a confirmed mathematician. I had not revealed my RL profession at this point. Bozzball had revealed his and given us reason to believe him (he posted some points saying the doctor and the cop roles were negligible in night 1). Robz fully intended to roleclaim on day 3. He knew he had a 66% chance of a counterclaim but also knew the information that the mafia had. Bozzball would have been able to give a better explanation then I on why Robz is highly unlikely to be the doctor, and as he was not the target of town suspicion like I am.
(Also DXV suspects robz of being scum)
I'm ready to vote again for Robz
An aside: My suspicion of bozzball was alot to do with the Kuildeous points (except that I MADE THEM FIRST). I suspected he was town or mafia and that if he was alive today we would have trouble killing someone. But eh he died so that says something right
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If I'm construing jotheonah's post correctly - and J, check me if I'm not - he is saying this (COMPLETE PARAPHRASING, despite my use of quotes):
"If you were really Doctor, you wouldn't have roleclaimed when you did. By roleclaiming, you make it a certainty that you will die before you get to use your Doctor power. If we lynch town today, we lose; if we lynch mafia today, the other mafia will kill you.
BUT, if you were Doctor and did NOT roleclaim, you'd have a chance to use your power. You could still argue why you're Town without having to roleclaim. And because the roleclaim isn't provable, it doesn't actually bolster your claim to be Town. If you don't roleclaim, and we lynch mafia today, there's a decent chance that the mafia would try to kill one of the other remaining townies in the night - who you could then save.
But by roleclaiming, you make it a certainty that your Doctor role never matters again. Either we lose today by mislynching, or you die in the night at the Mafia's hands. So roleclaiming only hurts your position, and therefore doesn't make sense - unless you're Mafia."
I think this is jotheonah's argument. It's a reasonable one. I don't know yet that I agree with it, but it's a reasonable one.
Robz, so far I think your explanation for why you roleclaimed is "I was in danger of a Mafia quickhammer if Insomniac is town, and roleclaimed to convince Insomniac - if he is town - to unvote." I may be missing nuances. If so, please set me straight.
So the question then is: jotheonah has argued that Robz's roleclaiming Doctor did nothing but hurt your position (assuming you are Doctor). It doesn't make you safer from the lynch; it only makes you the prime target at night. If you were Doctor you wouldn't willingly hurt your position; ergo, you must actually be Mafia. Robz, what is your response?
Volt, an answer to you:
I calculated that there was essentially no chance I get to use my doctor power to actually save someone, in any circumstance. As you note, the Mafia Rolecop exists. If the Rolecop never investigated anybody the town lynched, or anybody he and his mafia cohort killed, at present he would know everybody's role except one person. (5 people left: 2 mafia, 2 nights of investigation, 1 person remaining). There's a good chance of that, essentially the only thing to disrupt it that I can tell would be the mafia investigating Kuildeous or Bozzball on Night 1.
So, there's a good chance the mafia know I am doctor anyway. I think they probably would have killed me in the night if they knew (although you proposed an interesting reason why they would hold off), so my guess would be they learned it last night, I suppose. So it's no difference to them--either they discredit my claim and have me lynched (and we just lose), or they kill me in the night. This was all clear to them BEFORE I claimed Doctor. I don't get to Doctor anybody no matter what happens, in all overwhelming likelihood.
Also, even if they don't know I'm doctor, if I survive this lynch at all, I figured it would be because I had convinced the other townies to kill Insomniac, my runaway number 1 suspect. If we kill Insomniac, and he is mafia, and we go into the night phase, who is the other mafia going to kill? He is going to kill me, because if Insomniac is guilty, I am the most innocent looking person. So even if the mafia somehow had no knowledge of my Doctor status, I would still die tonight and the power would be totally meaningless.
So then, the question becomes: Why wouldn't I say I'm Doctor? I want to give the rest of the town members all the information I can, especially if it is information the mafia already have or probably didn't need to make their kill anyway.
I'm very sorry if the rest of the town thinks I have deprived us of a valuable tool. But I think you should see that there was really no chance I was going to get to use that tool to any effect, no matter whether everybody knows I'm doctor, the mafia know I'm doctor, or nobody knows I'm doctor.
Then of course Insomniac jumps on me with that immediate vote. I am thinking, "Uh, should I wait to say anything? Should I wait until there is another vote? What if 2 come at once? Well, it makes no difference, there's no benefit to keeping it a secret." So I said it.
My roleclaim was about clearing myself and giving the town more information, and my power was never going to actually protect anybody in the night. I thought it was the right thing to do, and I am still quite convinced of it. If it has made me look more suspicious, that's unfortunate, but... it was information that I possessed, that would help the town, and I had no reason to withhold it.
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Ah, Insomniac. Sigh.
So I'm back on the Robz train. I'm actually sick today so this wont be a very in depth post but I have reasons to believe so. They are Robz roleclaim is to get the town to lose, I have reasons to believe this.
Tables suspected Robz (lightly in post 111). He mentioned he wasn't as suspicious later. But I believe Tables would have still investigated Robz in the night. Robz has a silver tongue and is an experienced player. I see no reason to not investigate him on day 1 especially if you have suspicions towards him.
If I were the mafia and I were in the habit of killing people because they made even slight accusations against me, wouldn't I have murdered you over and over again? You must think me a foolish mafia. I chose to keep 2 people alive who are highly suspicious of me and instead killed the person who had no influence whatsoever on the game. And then I lied about being Doctor with a 66% chance of immediate contradiction.
But really, to think that I was more likely to kill Tables than anyone else was is reaching.
Night 2 bozzball was killed. And I want to talk about this again because I believe there was an additional reason I had overlooked. bozzball is a confirmed mathematician. I had not revealed my RL profession at this point. Bozzball had revealed his and given us reason to believe him (he posted some points saying the doctor and the cop roles were negligible in night 1). Robz fully intended to roleclaim on day 3. He knew he had a 66% chance of a counterclaim but also knew the information that the mafia had. Bozzball would have been able to give a better explanation then I on why Robz is highly unlikely to be the doctor, and as he was not the target of town suspicion like I am.
Why would Bozzball have given a better explanation? Because he is a mathematician? What? You seem to suggest there is some mathematical explanation for why my claim isn't true. Clearly you aren't a mathematician, because all the math suggests is that I was more likely than not to be contradicted if I were lying. I don't expect this to make everyone nod their heads and automatically accept my claim. I expect people to weigh this as evidence in my favor at least, however, that hopefully acquits me when the other evidence is considered as well.
My mathematical odds of being doctor are the same as everyone else. Odds of being mafia, same as everyone else.
(Also DXV suspects robz of being scum)
I understand that this is a joke! But in case there is any confusion, DXV accused me of being mafia in the pre-mafia thread, before roles were ever assigned. It was an honor.
I'm ready to vote again for Robz
An aside: My suspicion of bozzball was alot to do with the Kuildeous points (except that I MADE THEM FIRST). I suspected he was town or mafia and that if he was alive today we would have trouble killing someone. But eh he died so that says something right
You are voting to lynch the Doctor, sir.
VOTE: INSOMNIAC
I am relying on the rest of you to agree with me, of course. And I will continue to answer any questions you have of me, for as long as it takes.
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Just so we're a 100% clear: A mislynch today IS Game Over, right?
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The setup used for this newbie game is one of the ones given below. The setup is randomly determined, but is one of the 6 given here:
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Doctor.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Doctor, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Jailkeeper.
1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Rolecop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Doctor.
There will always be two mafia players and seven town players.
Here are all the role PMs that can be in the game:
-----------------------------------------
Mafia Goon
Welcome to Mafia II!
You are a Mafia, a Mafia Goon.
Your partner is __________, a Mafia Rolecop. You make speak with them during the pre-game and during the night phases.
(Any other communication outside of the thread with any other players is prohibited.)
Each night, you or your partner may send me the name of a player you would like to kill.
You win if the Mafia comprise at least half the town, or if nothing can prevent the same from happening.
If we kill the wrong person, there will be 2 mafia and 2 town. The mafia WILL comprise half the town. So I assume so.
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A mislynch will end the game at this point.
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Vote Count 3-2
Insomniac (1) - Robz888
Not Voting (4) - Voltgloss, Galzria, jotheonah, Insomniac
With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch
Deadline: Sunday, June 10, 2012 12pm PDT
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Things are moving pretty fast these days. Too fast for me to keep up! I'll try to have part 3, Jotheonah, up within the next two hours. Robz will follow that, with Volt bringing up the rear. I won't vote until I'm as sure as I can be, but I think it's fair to state things right now as such:
Robz has 1 unchangeable vote on him: Insomniac
Insomniac has 1 unchangeable vote on him: Robz
2 of the remaining 3 are town.
If Mafiosi #2 is willing to play the long game, he'll happily throw his partner under right now, ending in (likely) a 4-1 vote split.
If Mafiosi #2 wants to end the game today, he won't go after his partner at all, instead aiming to mislead 1 townie.
Whose story you believe, Insomniac or Robz, and how you think Mafiosi #2 is likely to play is going to determine win/lose.
For my part (and what it's worth right now), I am torn between believing Robz, and wondering if I'm being played. Robz himself has not had much impact on my play/decisions in days past, so I haven't felt manipulated... But then, I can say the same of Insomniac.
***If I had to choose right now or face the deadline, I would vote Insomniac***
I don't have to choose now however, and I've still got time. So back to my regularly scheduled programming. Part 3 to follow soon.
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Things are moving pretty fast these days. Too fast for me to keep up! I'll try to have part 3, Jotheonah, up within the next two hours. Robz will follow that, with Volt bringing up the rear. I won't vote until I'm as sure as I can be, but I think it's fair to state things right now as such:
Robz has 1 unchangeable vote on him: Insomniac
Insomniac has 1 unchangeable vote on him: Robz
2 of the remaining 3 are town.
If Mafiosi #2 is willing to play the long game, he'll happily throw his partner under right now, ending in (likely) a 4-1 vote split.
If Mafiosi #2 wants to end the game today, he won't go after his partner at all, instead aiming to mislead 1 townie.
Whose story you believe, Insomniac or Robz, and how you think Mafiosi #2 is likely to play is going to determine win/lose.
For my part (and what it's worth right now), I am torn between believing Robz, and wondering if I'm being played. Robz himself has not had much impact on my play/decisions in days past, so I haven't felt manipulated... But then, I can say the same of Insomniac.
***If I had to choose right now or face the deadline, I would vote Insomniac***
I don't have to choose now however, and I've still got time. So back to my regularly scheduled programming. Part 3 to follow soon.
Unlike Robz I am not unchangeable as you see I have not voted today, and am actually waiting for you to finish your book because aside from the part about me I very much like the idea behind them.
IF I had to vote right now it would be Robz, but I don't have to vote right now.
Robz: I didnt say bozzball would make the math more clear your claim is accurate, although the missleading part is if you are mafia then the you have the advantage of the knowledge the rolecop has gained doesn't change the fact that there could be a doctor or a jailkeeper but it does change the amount of safety you can gain from a reveal. What I said was that Bozzball would have made the same argument as me but because people trusted him they might have believed him at least a shred more than me. People don't believe me and thats fine. But we lose if we misslynch
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I won't be voting until after Galzria finishes his book posts. It wouldn't be fair going into Day 4 (assuming we lynch right) for those posts to exist on some people but not on others.
ONE EXCEPTION: if Galzria votes before then, I will vote. I don't think that's likely to happen, for obvious reasons.
I should note I don't find Robz's vote, even standing alone, to be either suspicious or unsuspicious. Robz said he would vote around this time; it's around this time; and he voted. If there's ONE thing I learned in this game, it's that saying you're going to do something in the future and then not doing it - even for the most legitimate-feeling of reasons! - just gets you grief.
Anyway, waiting for Galzria's magnum opus works out for me anyway, as work should be calming down later this week. So more time to think, consider, overanalyze, screw up royallyachieve resounding success.
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I just thought of a rules question involving the Rolecop. It might actually be important.
Axxle: When the Mafia Rolecop gets a result, is that result immediately shared with the rest of the Mafia?
Basically, I'm asking which of these two hypothetical scenarios is correct:
Night 2 - Goon kills Cop; Rolecop investigates Doctor
Day 2 - Rolecop knows who the Doctor is; Goon does not [because the Rolecop can't PM his findings to the Goon until Night 3]
OR
Night 2 - Goon kills Cop; Rolecop investigates Doctor
Day 2 - Rolecop AND Goon know who the Doctor is [because the mod PMs the Rolecop's results to the entire Mafia team]
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Axxle: When the Mafia Rolecop gets a result, is that result immediately shared with the rest of the Mafia?
No, and the rolecop doesn't get the result until dawn.
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Part 3 of 6: Jotheonah:
Day 1 Posts:
#41, #42, #43, #47, #52, #53, #55, #57, #59, #64, #67, #68, #129, #130, #149, #150, #152, #153, #156, #159, #167, #181, #182, #185, #186, #189, #191, #201, #220, #223, #228, #230, #236
Posts of interest:
#52 - Votes no lynch
#53 - Slight suspicion of Robz
#57 - Defends no lynch vote
#64 - Slightly suspicious of Kuildeous and Bozzball, more suspicious of Robz
#67 - Backs down from NL vote, suspects Tables, trusts Volt
#129 - Officially unvotes NL, still suspects Tables
#130 - Suspects Morgrim, but would lynch Kuildeous for being inactive with no stated reason
#149 - Strongly suspects Morgrim. Thinks M/G could be a pair. Ready to cast vote (doesn't), still suspects Kuildeous and Tables
#152 - Drops suspicion of Galzria, slightly suspicious of Bozzball
#156 - Sees Tables as possible Mafia #2
#167 - Officially votes Morgrim, suspicious of Kuildeous
#220 - Attempts to unvote
Relevant Conclusions: Wow, I didn't realize how scattered J was day 1! He suspected close to everybody. Hard to read. Set up a good defense for future days if he is Mafia, because he can claim he suspected everyone at some point, so can't be partners with anyone. Could also just be excitable town play. Few of his suspicions really carried much weight, and most were because of the arguments of others. Tough call.
Day 2 Posts:
#250, #251, #252, #257, #258, #262, #263, #269, #285, #294, #298, #299, #312, #313, #316, #322, #327, #332, #337, #355, #377, #379, #398, #399, #401, #402, #403, #414, #416, #421, 424, #428, #434, #435, #438, #439, #443, #448, #457, #473, #478, #481, #482, #485, #489, #492, #501, #503, #507, #509, #510, #541
Posts of interest:
#250 - Suspects Robz/Voltgloss pair. Presumptively defends Morgrim vote.
#257 - Reaffirms strong suspicion of R/V. Defends unvote after Morgrim lynch. Declares Galzria likely town.
#262 - Teeters about Volt, more sure of Robz
#263 - Reaffirms faith in G. Is bothered by G not trusting him. Supports the rest of G's analysis. Undecided which is Mafia, Robz or Volt, leaning Volt
#269 - Defends late Morgrim unvote
#285 - Tit-for-Tat with Volt. Agrees with Galz "1 in, 1 out" theory. Believes V is probably town.
#294 - Redirects K back to Robz when he suspects J/I more than R/G
#298 - Back and forth with Robz
#316 - Responds to G's inquiry about K: K is #1 suspect outside Robz/Volt, would vote K if group were leaning that way
#355 - Not sure if K/R or K/V most likely. Would vote K now. Doesn't think Insomniac has been helpful
#377 - "Bottom line, if you're sure someone's Mafia, kill them today. Don't wait."
#399 - Agrees with G's analysis of Tables death. Claims lack of faith there are 2 town roles
#414 - Fully lays out case for K, says he's not bandwagoning, is worried about losing G's trust
#443 - Still thinks Volt may be Mafia #2
#457 - Backs off K, votes bozz to illicit a response
#473 - Back to leaning K, but worried about I/V pair
#478 - Reaffirms #473 thoughts
#485 - Backs off I/V pair because I votes for V
#492 - Asks G's opinion of V, states he's still highly suspicious
#503 - Thinks K-I likely
#507 - Really not liking Insomniacs play
#541 - Votes Kuildeous
Relevant Conclusions: Again a bit scattered, but not as bad as Day 1. Back and forth with Robz and Volt all day. I mentioned apprehension day 2 at how badly he appeared to want my friendship, and upon review, this still raises some flags. It was SO pointed and dogged. I don't know. Could be Mafia trying to get in good (which would explain my living still - he's looking for me to defend him day 3) or it could be a false alarm.
Day 3 Posts:
#554, #555, #588, #590, #600, #601, #606, #613
Posts of interest:
#554 - Orders Mafia pairs: R-V, I-V, I-G, I-R. Doesn't buy role claim
#555 - Drops "friendship" with G. Suspects him for living.
#561 - Thinks Robz is Mafia, Insomniac is town
#588 - Stays on Robz
#600 - Accuses Robz of suspecting people who suspect him
#613 - Stays on Robz,, feels I is exonerated by lack of someone defending him
Relevant Conclusions: Wary. Not sold he's Mafia or Town. If Mafia, I got used BIG time day 2, and set up for day 3/4. But he hasn't really pursued me hard after post #555, so not sure. He's been on Robz since day 2 though. Could be town. Although Volt his comment about lack of second town role day 2. Plug that into your M. Rolecop theory that they knew R was Doctor after night 1. It discredits any future claim (like R did day 3). Mafia move or town read?
Not sure here. Wouldn't make a move until day 4 unless something major changes. Very wary however.
Part 4 tonight hopefully...
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Could be Mafia trying to get in good (which would explain my living still - he's looking for me to defend him day 3) or it could be a false alarm.
I'm the one who drew attention to your still being alive. Can't see myself doing that if it was going to implicate me.
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Btw, these are a PITA to put together with no edit, and (last two) on a mobile. There may be the occasional typo. Like "presumptively" instead of "preemptively". So don't judge too harshly. ;)
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Btw, these are a PITA to put together with no edit, and (last two) on a mobile. There may be the occasional typo. Like "presumptively" instead of "preemptively". So don't judge too harshly. ;)
+1 for doing this on a mobile device, I wouldn't have the patience
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Btw, these are a PITA to put together with no edit, and (last two) on a mobile. There may be the occasional typo. Like "presumptively" instead of "preemptively". So don't judge too harshly. ;)
+1 for doing this on a mobile device, I wouldn't have the patience
It's terrible when you realize 8 lines up you put "Insomniac" instead of "Voltgloss", and well, you know you just can't leave it. ;)
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Man. The compiling is exhausting. Alright, the much awaited for piece #4 of 6, the other suspicion leader, Robz:
Day 1 Posts:
#27, #32, #36, #77, #83, #86, #89, #91, #103, #104, #106, #107, #110, #112, #120, #126, #132, #142, #154, #155, #157, #160, #190, #193, #198, #209, #215, #217, #222, #225, #227, #231, #233
Posts of interest:
#83 - Suspects Jotheonah and Morgrim for No Lynch votes
#91 - Starts accusing M of bandwagon hopping
#106 - Finds bozz's vote on him odd, but not suspicious
#110 - Stays on M
#126 - Stays on M
#154 - Stays on M, agrees with Voltgloss, slightly suspects Galzria, suspects Tables
#190 - Will vote for M, would like to hear from Tables
#215 - Still suspects Tables, but not sure. Wants to place vote #4 on Morgrim to see who hammers, but will wait if requested
#217 - Votes Morgrim, but encourages others to retract if they aren't comfortable with M being at 4 votes.
Relevant Conclusions: Day 1 was pretty straight forward. He wasn't as guns blazing towards everybody as we thought he would be. Once he chose his target, he was relentless. Possible Mafia move to get a townie killed. Highly dangerous though putting himself so forward. Makes him look suspicious, which is not an ideal Mafia move. Hard to judge. More to go off of on day 1 than Insomniac though, for good or bad.
Day 2 Posts:
#254, #279, #282, #295, #302, #305, #307, #310, #319, #328, #329, #330, #370, #372, #384, #386, #392, #395, #400, #404, #431, #454, #456, #458, #460, #461, #508, #512, #520, #521, #522, #538
Posts of interest:
#254- Post-day 1 analysis. Suspects everyone to some degree except Kuildeous. States belief that there is 1 Mafia in bozzball/Insomniac set, and 1 in Galzria/Voltgloss/Jotheonah set. Believed G was most suspicious of 3 leaving day 1, but J's day 2 posts have raised flags
#295 - Reaffirms initial V-G suspicions, but still thinks J has been acting suspicious since day 2 started. He admits to provoking M in a few posts to try and get a response.
#302 - Claims he showed conviction (albeit wrongly) day 1, a town trait
#310 - Amidst growing clamor, admits he could be wrong about K's innocence
#319 - Restates how he perceived everyone's actions in regards to Morgrim
#328 - Takes issue with Insomniacs claims that he's unduly spreading suspicion everywhere
#330 - Claims Insomniacs statements regarding himself, Volt, and Galzria are all misleading our outright lies
#370 - Reevaluates K's actions to date. Now believes he could be Mafia
#384 - Reaffirms his growing suspicion of K. Notes he doesn't agree with G's reasons
#395 - Responds to Insomniacs comment about a second town role
#400 - Makes an interesting pairs list based on "friendliness". Notes that Insomniac hasn't really been anti-anyone, so could be anybodies partner
#431 - Admits to posting while drinking (**Obvious Mafia Tell! Lynch him! ;)**)
#456 - Big long post defending himself and rebutting Insomniacs attacks. Way too long to sum up in two lines here. Go read it yourselves!
#458 - States he is confident of a I-K pairing, but thinks if he were wrong on 1, it would be K.
#461 - Reaffirms I-K most likely, but could be I-J or I-anybody
#508 - Lists suspicion levels: I and K, high. J and G, medium. V, low. Bozz, none. Defends J's "I'll vote at X time" statement from I, but claims he has his own reasons to suspect J
#512 - States he'll cast his vote in a few hours
#520 - Votes K, but makes clear he would rather be voting I.
#522 - Unvotes at request of Kuildeous for more time
#538 - Votes K
Relevant Conclusions: Well, ok. There was a LOT here. It's hard to argue that there wasn't an easy line of thought process to follow. I can see how he got from day 2 dawn to day 2 twilight. There is logic, there is reason, and... It just feels off to me. I said I would play this round by feel more than logic, and he feels scummy coming off day 2. With that said, moving forward.
Day 3 Posts:
#550, #551, #566, #568, #570, #571, #573, #574, #599, #607, #610
Posts of interest:
#550 - Reiterates belief that I is Mafia. Admits with K innocent, J and G are now hugely suspicious. J just edges G in terms of possible guilt
#551 - Roleclaims doctor
#566 - Explains his actions as Doctor, defends claim
#568 - Starts math war
#599 - Decides on I's partner. Makes case for I-J pairing.
#607 - Continues to build case against J
#610 - Admits he can fire hostility towards accusers, but believes in his case.
Relevant Conclusions: So here we are once more. Coming out of Day 2, I would've told you Robz was more scummy than Insomniac. While I'm not sure how I feel about the Doctor claim, I've gotten an overall worse vibe from Insomniac today. This brings the two about equal, though I am SLIGHTLY leaning towards Insomniac.
This brings me to another point, and I'm going to jump the gun for a moment and give you a peak into part 6, pairs:
There are only 3 real possibilities to me. I-J, I-V, and R-V. I think of those, I-V is least likely. That means if I vote Robz, I essentially vote Voltgloss as well. If I vote Insomniac, I essentially vote Jotheonah. So which PAIR do I think more likely? Both V and J have played a friendly game towards me. But I find J's courtship for trust day 2 to be more damning. I DON'T trust it now. I was wary then, and have to be moreso now. V just let things happen naturally, and I get less of a Mafia read there. So unless something drastic happens, I will be voting insomniac at the conclusion of my 6 post write-up.
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Since Galatia has expressed an interest in voting for me at the end of the 6 parter I feel like I should defend my day 3 actions because if I'm killed we lose. So well I have had a vote on me for coming up to 24 hours and almost every pairing has been on. That means im mafia or robz is. But we already knew that.
Day 3 out of the gates I vote robz. Well I was sure he was mafia on day 2. Nothing changed. Why wouldn't I replace my Vote?
later role claimed. This is information that has no benefit to the town. It's the same as role claiming town vanilla. Your more likely to be counterclaims but even if you are it's a 50/50 the town loses anyways and if your not then well mafia win
I've already voiced that I think v is his partner. His posts are just so damn helpful. And don't draw suspicion.
The bolded part of this post is super important. I'll post more later as I hate typin up posts on an iPhone
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I should note (and should have at the end of last post, but was too tired), that I'm not going to finish part 6, then vote right away. I'll give at least 24 hours for discussion, and likely more.
So while I an interested in everything you have to say Insomniac (and everyone else), don't feel rushed. I'm not going to just slam the door when I finish.
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Also, as a point of interest, you'll all note that my Day 3 posts grabs only go up until I posted part 1. While new information is constantly released, it wouldn't be fair to those who cane early to compile new posts by those who came later. (I hope that made sense?)
To clarify, I had to draw a line in the sand somewhere, as we are constantly moving forward. I chose the spot of my first post. You'll have to evaluate everything after that on your own. ;)
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Since Galatia has expressed an interest in voting for me at the end of the 6 parter I feel like I should defend my day 3 actions because if I'm killed we lose. So well I have had a vote on me for coming up to 24 hours and almost every pairing has been on. That means im mafia or robz is. But we already knew that.
Day 3 out of the gates I vote robz. Well I was sure he was mafia on day 2. Nothing changed. Why wouldn't I replace my Vote?
later role claimed. This is information that has no benefit to the town. It's the same as role claiming town vanilla. Your more likely to be counterclaims but even if you are it's a 50/50 the town loses anyways and if your not then well mafia win
I've already voiced that I think v is his partner. His posts are just so damn helpful. And don't draw suspicion.
The bolded part of this post is super important. I'll post more later as I hate typin up posts on an iPhone
This information does in fact benefit the town, because if you believe I am Doctor--and I have provided reasons why you should--it narrows down the choices of who is mafia from 5 to 4. I have already explained why there was no downside to revealing:
I calculated that there was essentially no chance I get to use my doctor power to actually save someone, in any circumstance. As you note, the Mafia Rolecop exists. If the Rolecop never investigated anybody the town lynched, or anybody he and his mafia cohort killed, at present he would know everybody's role except one person. (5 people left: 2 mafia, 2 nights of investigation, 1 person remaining). There's a good chance of that, essentially the only thing to disrupt it that I can tell would be the mafia investigating Kuildeous or Bozzball on Night 1.
So, there's a good chance the mafia know I am doctor anyway. I think they probably would have killed me in the night if they knew (although you proposed an interesting reason why they would hold off), so my guess would be they learned it last night, I suppose. So it's no difference to them--either they discredit my claim and have me lynched (and we just lose), or they kill me in the night. This was all clear to them BEFORE I claimed Doctor. I don't get to Doctor anybody no matter what happens, in all overwhelming likelihood.
Also, even if they don't know I'm doctor, if I survive this lynch at all, I figured it would be because I had convinced the other townies to kill Insomniac, my runaway number 1 suspect. If we kill Insomniac, and he is mafia, and we go into the night phase, who is the other mafia going to kill? He is going to kill me, because if Insomniac is guilty, I am the most innocent looking person. So even if the mafia somehow had no knowledge of my Doctor status, I would still die tonight and the power would be totally meaningless.
So then, the question becomes: Why wouldn't I say I'm Doctor? I want to give the rest of the town members all the information I can, especially if it is information the mafia already have or probably didn't need to make their kill anyway.
I'm very sorry if the rest of the town thinks I have deprived us of a valuable tool. But I think you should see that there was really no chance I was going to get to use that tool to any effect, no matter whether everybody knows I'm doctor, the mafia know I'm doctor, or nobody knows I'm doctor.
Then of course Insomniac jumps on me with that immediate vote. I am thinking, "Uh, should I wait to say anything? Should I wait until there is another vote? What if 2 come at once? Well, it makes no difference, there's no benefit to keeping it a secret." So I said it.
My roleclaim was about clearing myself and giving the town more information, and my power was never going to actually protect anybody in the night. I thought it was the right thing to do, and I am still quite convinced of it. If it has made me look more suspicious, that's unfortunate, but... it was information that I possessed, that would help the town, and I had no reason to withhold it.
I think Insomniac is having a hard time understanding why I would do it, because he and I are playing differently. His modus operandi is, "What makes me more likely to survive?" Mine is, "What gives the town the best chance of winning?" I would reveal again in a heartbeat, there were no reasons to keep the info quiet and many reasons to share it.
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My play style today is also what makes the town the most likely to win and on day 2 I expressed that as well. Today what makes the town win is not misslynching. Which as I'm town does put my survival higher than on day 2. If you are town your survival is more important today than the mafia.
I understand why you revealed I do. But the reason there is no benefi is we believe you or we don't. Revealing is also a good way to show that you are mafia as it puts your loving above the town which is what you just blamed me for doing. On day 2 you cared if you lived or died. I did not beyond the point that I enjoy the game. Go back and re read day 2 I didn't care so long as you followed.
Time to put my money back where my mouth is
Vote: Robz
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Final player compilation: Voltgloss:
Day 1 Posts:
#22, #50, #56, #61, #75, #87, #94, #101, #114, #124, #140, #163, #166, #172, #173, #175, #187, #195, #210, #216, #221, #237
Posts of interest:
#50 - Slightly suspicious of Galzria, Robz, and Bozzball
#56 - States belief that No Lynch is a bad idea
#61 - Points out Jotheonah's erratic behavior regarding playing "nice" being essentially bad for town, then voting No Lynch
#75 - Admits to playing aggressively, and trying to "stir-the-pot". States belief that this will help Town more than Mafia
#87 - *Not really an interesting post, but wondering now what tactics he was referring to, and could they help us now?*
#114 - Voices strong suspicion of Morgrim for the first time, lays out case, and proceeds to vote
#140 - Follows up on suspicions of Morgrim, agrees with G about concerns regarding Bozzball and Tables
#175 - Requests nobody (mainly Insomniac & Robz) put down vote #4 on Morgrim until Tables analysis comes in. Indicates he will retract vote if they do until such time as he feels having 4 votes is warranted.
#210 - Indicates he now feels that Morgrim getting 4 votes is warranted (based on Morgrim's post #206), so will not retract if Robz/Insomniac vote
#216 - Reaffirms where he stands in #210 by stating he has no problem with Robz casting vote #4
#237 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEr0EAcSWcc
Relevant Conclusions: I don't find too much to nitpick here. If I wanted to think like Robz, I suppose I could be suspicious that when I accused him of stirring the pot without good reason, he backed off and started focusing his accusations. But that isn't really how I play, and I DON'T think it's suspicious. Like Robz, he indicated a desire to wait for Tables' post, but then moved forward (moved his THINKING forward. His vote was already cast) before it arrived. But that's defended by Morgrim's many missteps. Can't say even looking back that I get a strong read either Mafia or Town. If I HAD to pick one though, Town. Moving forward:
Day 2 Posts:
#244, #248, #259, #283, #284, #289, #290, #292, #303, #304, #308, #309, #315, #321, #334, #336, #340, #347, #351, #356, #358, #362, #375, #381, #411, #419, #422, #437, #441, #464, #467, #468, #480, #484, #486, #525, #532
Posts of interest:
#248 - Responds to Insomniac's accusations (and vote) of him
#259 - Day 1 analysis post. Expands on defense of Insomniac's accusations, finds Insomniac's reasons for opening day 2 with a vote for him slightly scummy. Suspects Jotheonah for same reasons - "twisting the facts" about him. Defends himself from being a partner to Robz because of it's transparency, and therefor bad Mafia play. Doubts an I-J pair for the same reason. No thoughts on Robz or Galz yet.
#283 - Another self-defense post, mostly geared towards Jotheonah and Kuildeous. States a firmer growing suspicion of Jotheonah.
#289 - Another self-defense post (lots of these, but true for all 4 of us), this time from Galzria's comments. Distance's himself from Robz, but notes he's had little time to review his posts. Thinks bozzball is town
#304 - Calls on Robz to redefine his Day 1 approach to Morgrim for clarity (mainly, in what posts was Robz provoking Morgrim, and in what posts was Robz actually making a case)
#309 - Requests Robz to give thoughts on Kuildeous possibly being Mafia - Notes the only person Kuildeous hasn't really gone after is Robz, so there might be a Mafia pair there
#321 - Notes correction to statement K never suspected Robz. Points to post #253, where K lists Robz as #1 suspect. No longer thinks K-R pair likely
#358 - Gives a rundown (purely informational) of where everybody's suspicions and votes have tallied up to that point. Sets the standard for using First letter abbreviations (THANK YOU)
#362 - Acknowledges that he is now G's #2 suspect, finds G's case against Kuildeous interesting
#375 - Finds some things about G's case against Kuildeous odd, and seeks more answers. Questions (again) Robz's take on the situation
#437 - First full post in awhile - Believes G to be town, along with Bozz - Lists ordered pair suspicions, least likely to most likely: I-R, J-R, I-J, J-K, *R-K*, **I-K**. *- Listed most intriguing, and the one he was digging for the most information about. Claims it looked strong until Robz's post #384 (Robz's suspicions of K post, noted separate from G's suspicions). Still possible. **- Listed most likely pair, based somewhat on erratic play, and somewhat on play that jived too well together. States he will vote at a given time, regardless of vote count
#454 - Votes "as per my conditionals", Kuildeous
#525 - Unvotes as per Kuildeous request for time
#532 - Revotes Kuildeous
Relevant Conclusions: I admit I didn't see just HOW 'friendly' Volt was towards Robz. To be fair, he was equally as friendly towards me. Then again, he mostly played a "suspect where the suspicion comes from" game. I notice that trend in a lot of people, and wonder now if it should or shouldn't be raising flags. How quickly he drops his scuffle with J is perhaps a bit concerning, and he doesn't jump into the Kuildeous fray until it looks like the tide is turning that way. This is a polar opposite of how he played day 1 though, and may be because that isn't where his suspicions naturally were, so he wanted to make sure before opening his mouth. Definitely things here that concern me (more than I would have guessed). I think I've said that about everyone at this point though, and being down to 5 NOW, rightfully so. If I were to rank coming out of day 2, I would say (In order of scummy to innocent): R->I->V->J (V and J are about tied here) ... Things change day 3 though, so moving forward:
Day 3 Posts:
#556, #557, #563, #577, #580, #582, #584, #589, #591, #594, #602
Posts of interest:
#556 - States certainty that Insomniac is Mafia, and is pretty sure Galzria is his partner
#557 - Reaffirms his suspicion that Galz is Mafia #2, playing a "wait for 2nd vote" game on Robz instead of putting him up to 2 right away
#563 - States he cannot (through no lack of trying) come up with a reason Insomniac should be alive, except that he must be Mafia
#577 - Argues Robz has gotten the better of the R/I argument regarding Roleclaiming, and asks Galzria to supply the points Insomniac made that were good. Did not like G soliciting advice before weighing in himself
#602 - States he's going to re-evaluate pairs
Relevant Conclusions: Ok, maybe I wasn't paying enough attention, but WOW has Volt been all over me day 2! I've tried to be as clear as I can, and despite his many posts hammering away at me (and Insomniac), I think since dawn started I've been far more forward with my suspicions of Insomniac than Robz. I certainly don't think Robz is as innocent as Volt has acted like he is (since the start of the game really). I want to address one thing quickly here:
Also, FWIW, Galzria's soliciting my and J's opinions before weighing in with any substance at all does not make me any less suspicious of G. The opposite, in fact.
And:
I also have a question for Robz. Robz has weighed in a couple times recently on Kuildeous, noting that - based on Kuildeous's Day 2 activities - he may have been hasty in dropping K from the suspects list. But I don't think Robz has said anything about K's Day 1 vote for Bozzball. Robz, do you find that suspicious like Galzria does? If not, what about Galzria's analysis do you disagree with?
Galzria, whatever responses Kuildeous and Robz give, I would also like the benefit of your reply.
I realize I haven't weighed in on my thoughts on Kuildeous yet. That's because I still have these questions (see above) and would like to see the answers before making up my mind.
Really? It's ok for you to do it, but not others? Sorry, but that really bothered me.
Regardless. I've stated over and over that I'm going to play this round less by logic, and more by feel. LOGICALLY, I would be all over Volt (and in turn, as I'll explain in my next post, Robz) for turning a blind eye towards everything I've said day 3 and intentionally misleading/misconstruing my posts. But logic has failed me on day 1, and on day 2. Instincts and feelings has led to a town win in Mafia-I. So I'm going to stand by my instincts (which Volt, have NOT waivered since the start of day 3), and plan on voting Insomniac.
Post 6 of 6 to come this afternoon/evening.
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Relevant Conclusions: Ok, maybe I wasn't paying enough attention, but WOW has Volt been all over me day 2! I've tried to be as clear as I can, and despite his many posts hammering away at me (and Insomniac), I think since dawn started I've been far more forward with my suspicions of Insomniac than Robz. I certainly don't think Robz is as innocent as Volt has acted like he is (since the start of the game really). I want to address one thing quickly here:
Also, FWIW, Galzria's soliciting my and J's opinions before weighing in with any substance at all does not make me any less suspicious of G. The opposite, in fact.
And:
I also have a question for Robz. Robz has weighed in a couple times recently on Kuildeous, noting that - based on Kuildeous's Day 2 activities - he may have been hasty in dropping K from the suspects list. But I don't think Robz has said anything about K's Day 1 vote for Bozzball. Robz, do you find that suspicious like Galzria does? If not, what about Galzria's analysis do you disagree with?
Galzria, whatever responses Kuildeous and Robz give, I would also like the benefit of your reply.
I realize I haven't weighed in on my thoughts on Kuildeous yet. That's because I still have these questions (see above) and would like to see the answers before making up my mind.
Really? It's ok for you to do it, but not others? Sorry, but that really bothered me.
Regardless. I've stated over and over that I'm going to play this round less by logic, and more by feel. LOGICALLY, I would be all over Volt (and in turn, as I'll explain in my next post, Robz) for turning a blind eye towards everything I've said day 3 and intentionally misleading/misconstruing my posts. But logic has failed me on day 1, and on day 2. Instincts and feelings has led to a town win in Mafia-I. So I'm going to stand by my instincts (which Volt, have NOT waivered since the start of day 3), and plan on voting Insomniac.
Post 6 of 6 to come this afternoon/evening.
That was supposed to read: "Ok, maybe I wasn't paying enough attention, but WOW has Volt been all over me day 3!" -- Day 3, not Day 2.
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So given that at the end of your recap post on me you said that I was the most likely Insomniac teammate, a few questions.
1) Did your analysis of Volt change that? (I.E. if we lynch Insomniac and he comes up mafia, will you still target me or will you target Volt or will you have no idea?)
2) If Robz is the mafia, do you agree that Volt is the ONLY partner for him who makes any sense?
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Vote Count 3-3
Insomniac (1) - Robz888
Robz888 (1) - Insomniac
Not Voting (4) - Voltgloss, Galzria, jotheonah
With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch
Deadline: Sunday, June 10, 2012 12pm PDT
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So given that at the end of your recap post on me you said that I was the most likely Insomniac teammate, a few questions.
1) Did your analysis of Volt change that? (I.E. if we lynch Insomniac and he comes up mafia, will you still target me or will you target Volt or will you have no idea?)
2) If Robz is the mafia, do you agree that Volt is the ONLY partner for him who makes any sense?
To answer quickly, but without too much in depth (my fingers hurt!):
1) I would re-evaluate then of course. I would go in suspecting you, but I think you should've figured out by now that I'm anything BUT hasty, and don't mind putting forth effort. I'm never going to just open up a day with a vote.
2) I think there is SOME chance still of an I-R pair, and even SOME chance of a J-R pair. But neither seem anywhere near likely enough based on everybody's actions to warrant serious consideration above or before a possible R-V pair. R-V is very likely in my mind. I-J is just slightly moreso, and I can't vote 2 places at once. I have to make a decision. So I have to go with my instinct, and vote Insomniac.
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Galzria, let me put something to you. You're between I-J and R-V. You think I-J is more likely, so you're going to vote I. Fine. BUT you admit that I-V is a strong possibility if the "I" half turns out to be right. R-V is the ONLY strong possibility if R turns out to be right. So hedging your bets between your pairs ... isn't "V" the best bet? At this point, voting Volt is functionally the same as voting Robz for you and me, but it has the added benefit of having a chance of being right EVEN IF I is the mafia out of the pair.
I would join you in that vote for reasons I've explained above - he's the only partner who makes sense to me for either Robz or Insomniac. Whichever one, R or I, joins us for the third vote, we'll have a pretty good idea of who to kill tomorrow.
At this point I think it's VERY possible that R-V is the mafia and that we're going to lose if we lynch Insomniac. Being as you hold them as very likely, just know that voting for I, in that circumstance, would end the game with a town loss.
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Galzria, let me put something to you. You're between I-J and R-V. You think I-J is more likely, so you're going to vote I. Fine. BUT you admit that I-V is a strong possibility if the "I" half turns out to be right. R-V is the ONLY strong possibility if R turns out to be right. So hedging your bets between your pairs ... isn't "V" the best bet? At this point, voting Volt is functionally the same as voting Robz for you and me, but it has the added benefit of having a chance of being right EVEN IF I is the mafia out of the pair.
I would join you in that vote for reasons I've explained above - he's the only partner who makes sense to me for either Robz or Insomniac. Whichever one, R or I, joins us for the third vote, we'll have a pretty good idea of who to kill tomorrow.
At this point I think it's VERY possible that R-V is the mafia and that we're going to lose if we lynch Insomniac. Being as you hold them as very likely, just know that voting for I, in that circumstance, would end the game with a town loss.
Fair enough points. I'm not going to consider them in my next write-up, as I don't want to alter where I stand NOW (and have indicated in previous posts), but I also said I would be willing to look and listen to other people after I post part 6. I'm not going to just drop a vote on Insomniac. I'll wait for any and all discussion. I'm not promising here that I'll change my vote to Volt, and in fact, I don't even think it's likely that I will. But I WILL listen and consider before making my final decision.
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I'm not even sure it's the best plan, man. I just wanted to put it to you as a thought. Lylo is a terrible place to be. (That's lynch-or-lose, I read it on mafiascum).
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BUT you admit that I-V is a strong possibility if the "I" half turns out to be right.
When, exactly, did Galzria do this?
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I'm not even sure it's the best plan, man. I just wanted to put it to you as a thought. Lylo is a terrible place to be. (That's lynch-or-lose, I read it on mafiascum).
It's a really bad plan if, as I suspect, J and Insomniac are the mafia. (It's also a bad idea if G and Insomniac or even G and J are the mafia, which I consider possible but far less likely pairings.)
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I'm not even sure it's the best plan, man. I just wanted to put it to you as a thought. Lylo is a terrible place to be. (That's lynch-or-lose, I read it on mafiascum).
It's a really bad plan if, as I suspect, J and Insomniac are the mafia. (It's also a bad idea if G and Insomniac or even G and J are the mafia, which I consider possible but far less likely pairings.)
Or R anyone
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BUT you admit that I-V is a strong possibility if the "I" half turns out to be right.
When, exactly, did Galzria do this?
Well, he admitted in his analysis of you that you were more suspicious than he first thought. Then immediately above, he indicated that if Insomniac lynched mafia he would re-evaluate his partner.
Guys, I'm flattered that you think I'm competent enough at this game to play it as masterfully as the mafia have, with Insomniac as a partner. But it's really just not true. The two people alive who are saavy enough to pull this mafia game off are Robz and Volt. Maaybe Galzria. But think about everything you know about me and I and ask yourself if I'm that good.
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Can I ask since I'm probably going to be lynched, if I were the mafia (I'm not) AND trying to stay alive why would I open day 3 with a vote? Just curious.
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Can I ask since I'm probably going to be lynched, if I were the mafia (I'm not) AND trying to stay alive why would I open day 3 with a vote? Just curious.
Because you didn't think it would look all that suspicious given your opening vote on Voltgloss day 2, and because it's a continuation from your day 2 argument. You would only need one town to buy into that in order to win.
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Remember, living isn't your goal (as Mafia or Town). Winning is. At this point, it's the same thing for town, but not for Mafia. Why put yourself in that position if you had something to lose? You wouldn't. But you did, so the conclusion is that you are the most likely Mafia.
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Alright guys, sorry about this, but I have to coach. I'm about 75% done with the final instalment, and will get it up tonight, but not until late. I wanted to have it finished by now, but alas!
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Living IS your goal as town, if you DIE town loses now. MAFIA can afford to lose one person and STILL win on day 4. Town has to not miss 2 days straight here. So yes living is my goal right now. Robz claiming is not because he can afford to be under the bus and as I said he knew I would target him and some other people were suspicious of him so Robz claimed to get people off his back which congratulations it worked.
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jotheonah, I would like to hear your case for why you think a Voltgloss-Insomniac mafia pairing is at all likely.
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If Insomniac is mafia, he must have a partner. We all see why it's exceedingly unlikely it's Robz.
I know it's not me.
So that leaves you and Galzria.
Between the two of you, you've been generally scummier. You were more involved in Morgrim's lynch. There was some weirdness Day 2 where you disengaged when it looked like I was going to focus too much attention on you.
Your attacks on Insomniac, while not nonexistent, have been generally weaker and more bandwagonny.
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My current stance, I know Robz is mafia so I've been thinking about who is partner is and well here's where I stand.
Voltgloss - Quiet as of late hasn't attacked Robz much but has attacked Robz. Has quite useful posts, either a helpful town player or a very concealed mafia player. Rank #1. Not that surprising as it was a pairing we all saw on Day 2 and were turned off of because it was well, obvious. But now that we're here on day 3 we know that the mafia has to have been manipulating the town to a huge extent and the two people super capable of doing that are these two. They're posts are just so damn well thought out and insightful that I find it extremely incriminating (more so of Voltgloss than Robz) I haven't found things to fault Voltgloss for but I have definetly found problems with some of Robz arguments.
Galzria - His posts as I said on day 2 are often summary posts and not his own beliefs just help get people knowing where they want to be. If he's mafia I wouldn't be too surprised but I get a town vibe from him. Maybe I'm bad at this game though cuz people apparently want to vote for me. Rank #2
Jotheonah - Well here my least suspect he's been saying he'll vote for Robz, suggesting Galzria vote for Voltgloss with him, and all the while claiming that I could be mafia. If he is mafia he's covering it up by accusing everyone and everything in attempt to get a bandwagon other than myself/Robz because then Robz can jump on with Jotheonah and lynch where the target it. Possible but my least likely pairing. Rank #3
If the pairing isn't one with Robz then I don't know why the game isn't over. as every other pairing has been on and been able to lynch myself or Robz
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I'd definetly be up for one seeing as M-II ends at the end of day 3 ;)
Well, it ends at the end of day 3 if a townie gets lynched? But not if a mafia does?
Thats correct but its looking like I'm going to be lynched and well as I've said in there I'm town
Please don't discuss the game outside this thread if you're still living. I brought the quotes here so all discussion is in one place.
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I'd definetly be up for one seeing as M-II ends at the end of day 3 ;)
Well, it ends at the end of day 3 if a townie gets lynched? But not if a mafia does?
Thats correct but its looking like I'm going to be lynched and well as I've said in there I'm town
Please don't discuss the game outside this thread if you're still living. I brought the quotes here so all discussion is in one place.
My appologies I had forgotten about that rule with all the talking of M1
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You know what? I'm doing it.
Vote: Voltgloss
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You know what? I'm doing it.
Vote: Voltgloss
If you aren't mafia this is a bad idea, as it gives the mafia a third out, Robz can switch as well as whomever his partner is (assuming R-V isn't the pairing which I suppose would imply R-G is)
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Since I'm fairly confident V is IN the mafia pair, I'm not that worried about it. That is the point of voting for someone right? Because you think they're mafia?
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No interest I, no worries. Will be home in a few hours.
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I am at the bar getting drunk on martinis but am obviously watching this closely. My position on Volt is the same as always. I wonder if Insomniac will switch, though it would be obvious why if he did. I wonder what Galz is thinking, since that is really the only vote up for grabs. No majority! Truly this is fascinating. Anyway Insomniac's comments don't bother me, I understand it's a little difficult trying to keep straight when to post what where. But it certainly doesn't change my mind about him in the slightest.
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For the record, once more no hammer when it was all set up. Robz and I posted within 9 minutes of each other.
Robz,, will have my thoughts up tonight, but late.
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Don't drunkpost Robz. You'll accidentally reveal that you're mafia and none of us will be able to feel good about winning that way.
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For the record, once more no hammer when it was all set up. Robz and I posted within 9 minutes of each other.
Robz,, will have my thoughts up tonight, but late.
This is getting crazy. Three suspects among 5 people? Uh, when will we get your thoughts, G?
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For the record, once more no hammer when it was all set up. Robz and I posted within 9 minutes of each other.
Robz,, will have my thoughts up tonight, but late.
This is getting crazy. Three suspects among 5 people? Uh, when will we get your thoughts, G?
Wanted them out before I left. Had to coach a game, then dinner and drinks with Team (where I am now). Will post as soon as I get home. 3-4 hours hopefully.
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And to be clear, what I meant was we can't be a pair or we would've hammered V. This did not happen. Still could, as we are both active, but isn't.
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And to be clear, what I meant was we can't be a pair or we would've hammered V. This did not happen. Still could, as we are both active, but isn't.
Who cant be a pair? You and Insomniac?
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Boy, you ARE drunk. You and me. If we were Mafia we would both vote Volt now and win.
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Boy, you ARE drunk. You and me. If we were Mafia we would both vote Volt now and win.
True and true.
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My phone is dying. No more posts from me until I get home. Don't kill anybody on me!
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Also means me and G aren't mafia
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I lied, one more: To be clear, my only possible partner now is V. J-G could've hammered R, R-G could've hammered V, and I-G could've hammered V.
So for those keeping track, the only one who COULD be my partner is V. Volt and I are not a Mafia pair.
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I lied, one more: To be clear, my only possible partner now is V. J-G could've hammered R, R-G could've hammered V, and I-G could've hammered V.
So for those keeping track, the only one who COULD be my partner is V. Volt and I are not a Mafia pair.
Hooray, everyone is acquitted. And yet....
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I lied, one more: To be clear, my only possible partner now is V. J-G could've hammered R, R-G could've hammered V, and I-G could've hammered V.
So for those keeping track, the only one who COULD be my partner is V. Volt and I are not a Mafia pair.
Hooray, everyone is acquitted. And yet....
Not true.
R and J
R and V
G and V
V and I
J and I
Also if there was any doubt me and robz have been on and could've hammered V
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And (finally) I give you part 6 of 6. Apologies for the delay, I just ran out of time earlier. Let's begin.
I think that in my first 5 outline posts, I was fairly clear as to where my suspicions lie individually. To recap, in order of scummiest read to "safest":
Insomniac
Robz
Voltgloss
Jotheonah
It must be noted that there isn't a HUGE gap between I and R, nor is there a huge gap between V and J. There is, however, a huge gap between the top two and bottom two. Still, I have to ask myself, how sure am I that Insomniac is Mafia? How sure am I compared to Robz? Would I be willing to stake the game on it? The answer I invariably come up with is no. No, I'm not sure. No, I don't believe Insomniac is guilty and Robz is innocent, and No, I wouldn't stake the game on it.
But where does that leave me? It leaves me wondering about Pairs. If I can't put together a case for the individual, maybe I can think partners. So I'll start with every possible pair, and narrow down my search:
I-R
I-V
I-J
R-V
R-J
V-J
6 pairs in all. I decided to take a leaf out of Robz's book, back in post #400, and look at the pairs in terms of friendliness. Sure, today one Mafia may be willing to throw another under the bus to hide suspicion, but they likely wouldn't have done that the WHOLE game. I also decided to play more by instinct than pure logic. As indicated, logic got me nowhere the first two days, and instinct worked well over in Mafia-I. With a fresh knowledge of everybody's actions, I set to work eliminating people who have been going at each other Day 1 and Day 2:
The obvious one here to eliminate is I-R. They have been back and forth since Insomniac really joined in on the game day 2. Way more so than a natural Mafia pair would be. There was too much risk to attack so hard day 2. The other advantage to throwing this pair out *for now* is that because the conversation is currently on WHICH is Mafia. If they ARE a pair, we'll safely hit one either no matter how we vote today.
The next pair that I eliminated, was V-J. There wasn't a whole lot of back and forth from them day 1 (unless you count the No Lynch stuff, which I've said since the beginning I don't think is relevant), but Day 2 they were all over each other until I made a push for Kuildeous. With Robz's day 2 suspicions of J thrown in, had the subject not changed, there is a high likelyhood that one of them (probably J) would've been lynched. This pair just doesn't make much sense to me. They've also firmly set themselves up on opposite sides day 3, so I don't find this likely.
Unsurprisingly, I'm left with Insomniac paired with V or J, and Robz paired with V or J. Again, I look backwards to pick up on patterns and trends. Robz and Jotheonah had a pretty good spat going to start day 2, with each claiming falsehoods and lies. Neither advanced their argument very far INTO day 2, as J decided Volt was the better person to argue with, and R decided K might be more suspicious. Still, it seemed risky to me as a Mafia move. Possible pair? Sure. Likely? No.
I felt the same about a possible Insomniac-Volt pairing. Insomniac opened day 2 voting for Voltgloss in his very first post. He pushed it for awhile, then dropped it completely. But on this side, Volt decides to drop his case to argue with Jotheonah, and Insomniac seems to come out going after Robz instead. Still a very risky ploy early on, that could've seen one of them get snowballed into a lynch. As above, possible pair? Sure. Likely? No.
And now the last two. The most likely two.
Insomniac-Jotheonah
Voltgloss-Robz
I hadn't realized just HOW friendly Voltgloss has been to Robz the whole game. I can't honestly say there were more than 3 posts (IF that) where he even SLIGHTLY suspected him.
The same is not QUITE true of Insomniac and Jotheonah, although honestly I don't think I could find enough posts where they really go after each other to build a case that they AREN'T a pair.
So both are friendly, but not openly so (arguable in V-R case). How do I decide? My final thoughts came down to this (and I alluded to this at the end of Insomniac's write-up). IF I vote for Insomniac, I'm essentially voting for Jotheonah because that is the only pair that makes sense. Likewise, IF I vote for Robz, I'm essentially voting for Voltgloss. As noted at the beginning, Voltgloss IS slightly higher on my suspects list than Jotheonah. So why would I choose to vote Insomniac over Robz? Instinct. At the end of the day, neither Volt nor Jotheonah leveled any real accusations against me (not counting day 3, where both denounced me, but Volt has come after me with vigor), but Volt felt more like a townie who just didn't suspect me. Jotheonah... his constant never ceasing quest to "earn" my trust day two concerned me. It did then, and I noted it, but was willing to let it pass. WHEN I noted it, he got defensive and tried to make sure I didn't walk backwards. He doesn't FEEL like a townie who doesn't suspect me, he FEELS like a Mafia trying to make a friend in the town so that when we get into THIS EXACT SITUATION, he can use that friendship to help win.
He DID denounce me though, which might put a thorn in my thoughts, except, as noted by Volt in his never ceasing quest to Villainize day 3, Jotheonah never really did follow up on that. As odd as it may be, my INSTINCT tells me that Volt's quest to pair me up with Insomniac as Mafia is more honest and trustworthy than Jotheonah's saying one thing and then not following up on it.
Note that nowhere in here do I talk about the demonized roleclaim. Here's my take: I don't know if it's true or not. I honestly don't care. If it IS true, he gains nothing by revealing, and looses nothing by revealing. If it's NOT true, he really gains nothing by revealing, and has a VERY small chance of risk by revealing. He can't prove it, and it doesn't help us. Maybe he thinks it does? I don't care. My case against him isn't based on that. My case against him is based on his whole game. As is my case against everybody here. And WHOLE GAME, I suspect Insomniac more.
So, in about 24 hours, if I havn't seen a reason to change, I will be voting Insomniac.
Also, as a last note (this wasn't relevant when I left earlier), I don't know if Insomniac's claims in other thread are true or not, and much like Rob'z roleclaim, I don't care. I treat anything said outside as irrelevant and neither true nor false. It could be either. But it has no impact whatsoever on my decision, nor should it.
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To Villainize me* day 3 ---< Edit to above.
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So Galzria is that post (pairings) updated to reflect all that's transpired since or is it just as of when you started the posts?
Because maybe I'm completely wrong but your the only one I have a town read on other than me
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One last thought before I go to bed. Another reason for mafia to roleclaim and take the 66% risk.
IF there is a counterclaim jailkeeper or doctor then if the counterclaim is lynched mafia win.
IF the counterclaim isn't lynched the mafia kill the role in the night for the guaranteed kill. Because neither the jailkeeper nor the doctor can save themselves. So if we lynch robz today had their been a counterclaim that person would go under the bus during the night 3. Thus ensuring the 2-1 Day 4
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So Galzria is that post (pairings) updated to reflect all that's transpired since or is it just as of when you started the posts?
Because maybe I'm completely wrong but your the only one I have a town read on other than me
It does reflect my general feelings overall to date. I told Jotheonah a few posts back (and indicated to you earlier) that I wasn't going to just post it and then vote, and that holds true. I want enough time for everybody to react and add their thoughts and opinions. While I don't think there is a whole lot left to be said (and certainly I've said MORE than my share :P), I am more than willing to listen. I just don't really see much changing my mind at this point.
Certainly you don't want to be lynched, and I would expect you to voice/act on that. Jotheonah's first response earlier was about what I expect from him - asking how sure I am between himself and Volt. I'm not sure what I'll hear from Volt and Robz. But I think it's only fair to let everybody have a chance to speak/voice their opinions before I make another move.
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Here are all possible remaining pairs:
I-R
I-V
I-J
I-G
J-V
J-R
J-G
R-V
R-G
G-V
We will eliminate R-I, R-J, and V-J do to feuding between the parties. That leaves:
I-V
I-J
I-G
J-G
R-V
R-G
G-V
We will eliminate all the additional pairings that should have produced a hammer on Robz888 or Insomniac. Since we voted for each other, G-J and G-V should have resulted in the end of the game. That leaves:
I-V
I-J
I-G
R-V
R-G
We will eliminate all the additional pairings that should have produced a hammer on Voltgloss. Since Jotheonah voted for Voltgloss, G-R and G-I should have produced the end of the game. That leaves:
I-V
I-J
R-V
The interesting thing is what this tells individual people. For instance, if Insomniac is innocent, he should think that J also must be innocent. If Voltgloss is innocent, he has little choice but to conclude that I am also innocent. Galzria, incidentally, qualifies as guilty in none of the final pairs.
I know that some have disqualified I-V as a possible pair. I would disqualify it only because I don't think Voltgloss is mafia, which leaves only the pair I originally proposed this round: Insomniac and Jotheonah. I am still in favor of lynching Insomniac. Aside from being the more suspicious of the two, he technically appears in more of these pairs than J.
So why have J and Insomniac split their votes? Perhaps they know they lost the argument this round, and when Insomniac dies and does come up mafia, J wants to be on record as having distanced himself.
These are just my thoughts at this point. The fact that there is no hammer yet really does support my opinion that the mafia are Insomniac and J (although I admit a Volt-me pairing or an Insomniac-Volt pairing would also produce this result.)
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I havent ruled out r-J robs why did you ignore this pair
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Nevermind I see why. You guys barely feuded. WE feuded you guys briefly threw pillows at each other to look innocent
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Nevermind I see why. You guys barely feuded. WE feuded you guys briefly threw pillows at each other to look innocent
Yes, compared to Insomniac and myself, J and me basically braided each others' hair and talked about who we had crushes on. Still, I think it's worth ruling out. J came after me strong at the start of Day 2, has not ratified my Doctor claim, and I have explicitly said that he is the second mafia. (Also, I KNOW that I can rule it out, because I am not the mafia. J has ruled it out, I'm sure, for similar reasons. That's true from my perspective for the R-V pairing too, though.)
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Vote Count 3-4
Insomniac (1) - Robz888
Robz888 (1) - Insomniac
Voltgloss (1) - jotheonah
Not Voting (2) - Voltgloss, Galzria
With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch
Deadline: Sunday, June 10, 2012 12pm PDT
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The action that happens while I'm asleep.
Well, I have to thank jotheonah, because he removed the last shred of doubt that was holding me back. There were two reasons I haven't voted for Insomniac yet: (1) because I was waiting for Galzria to finish his masterwork, and (2) my fear that the mafia could be R-G. It wasn't a huge fear, but a significant enough fear that I wanted to analyze that pairing carefully in comparison to I-J.
But now I don't have to do that, as R-G has been cleared. They could have hammered me to a win; they did not.
Thanks, jotheonah.
VOTE: INSOMNIAC
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Don't have a lot of time now to talk, but will this evening:
You all will, I hope, forgive me, but I've got to take it while it's there:
VOTE: INSOMNIAC
And... That makes 3.
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ALright, I'm at least going to give Galzria a chance to end this game with a win. Even though he's said he won't take it.
I desperately hope you guys are right and insomniac is mafia, but like Rob said, our additional information about our own innocence tells us each something, and it tells me that R-V is the overwhelmingly likely pair.
So Unvote. Vote: Robz888
Galzria, if you vote for either party now you end either the day or the game. So do us the favor of waiting at least 24 hours. I want to look through everything once more and try to find a silver bullet to convince you of my case.
Can you show me exactly where I've desperately vied for your friendship? Since that (completely unintentional) act could very well be what loses town the game?
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Galzria, you literally posted that while my stupid Internet was crashed. Ah, the Gods of fate don't like us (or do?)
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You all will, I hope, forgive me, but I've got to take it while it's there:
I really hope this is just an unfortunately worded Townie comment and not a "finally, we win" Mafia comment. The fact that Galzria said he'd wait around 24 hours to vote, but didn't, has me concerned. But who could be his Mafia partner?
Well, we'll know soon enough. I said it before and I'll repeat it: if Galzria is Mafia and just clinched a win, he's played a masterful game and deserves said win.
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I'm getting paranoid. I'm rereading Galz and Robz's exchange late last night and now my brain is translating them as:
Galz: "Vote for V and I'll vote for him too and we win!"
Robz: /drinking
Galz: "Dammit!"
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Decent thought V, and I'll admit to being Mafia having cast the third vote. But what you suggest above absolutely is not the case. I never had aims to vote for you, under any circumstances.
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Congrats robz and partner on your win
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I apparently mean r and g. Why did you guys not hammer V?
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So apparently I wasted Day 3 trying to convince the wrong guy. G, you played a masterful game. I should have looked closer at that one damning piece of evidence re: your continued nighttime survival.
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Also while I'm thinking about it why did you guys kill bozzball was I correct about potential for coming back and probably an easy hammer on me?
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From my standpoint: We were both out. Him at a bar, me at dinner with the team. V reads my comment to him as "Vote and I'll Vote", but it was exactly the opposite, and I think he picked up on it. It was "DON'T Vote!". I knew J was active, and couldn't be sure he wouldn't drop an unvote before we could hammer, ruining everything. ESPECIALLY when I still felt sure we would get V's vote within the next day.
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Actually, Robz and I rarely lied in this game. Our posted thoughts on Tables and Bozzball were dead on. Re: bozzball, he had the least likely chance of an 11th hour power-save.
And day 2, when Robz said he thought K would die during night 1 (fitting into his K is town argument), it's because he wanted to kill K first night, and I overrode with my treasons to snag Tables - Which were as I stated openly day 2: He would've had too much time to cleanly evaluate day 1's events. Plus, we were pretty sure K, T, or V had a role, he investigated V.
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(http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lyqqppSuz21qdjns7.gif)
Seriously though, very well played the both of you. I expect you were trying to stifle giggles all the way through Day 2 that we bought the whole "1 Mafia didn't vote for Morgrim" thing. :)
J, I have a crow to share with you. Would you prefer the head, or the feet?
So... does this mean that everything Robz had to teach us newbies on Day 1 about proper Mafia play was a passel of lies? ;)
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Actually, Robz and I rarely lied in this game.
This. This was key.
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To mention strategy quickly: We never had one, never talked about it. We both recognized we would be more genuine if we didn't know what our partner would do, so our reactions could be pure and as close to truthful as we could get.
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And I guess we only had one power role after all, that you guys luckily managed to kill Night 1?
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And to be fair, while things didn't go well for town, you guys played a great game. Day 3 was TOUGH, and after my charge on K, I didn't know if we could pull it off. You guys made it as difficult as you could I believe. So I applaud you.
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Actually, Robz and I rarely lied in this game.
Except for the BIG GIANT DOCTOR lie that I absolutely spotted from the moment it was uttered.
Yes Volt, let's enjoy this delicious crow. Also I'm sorry I targeted you, you're a good guy, etc., etc.
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(http://images1.fanpop.com/images/quiz/18140_1214135368120_300_225.jpg)
pictured: a BIG GIANT DOCTOR lie
I meant a BIG GIANT DOCTOR LIE.
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It was a lucky night 1 kill, but not random. I did have reason to suspect T might have a role. It was him, K or you. So 33% chance, with an investigation on another. Robz genuinely did not think K could be made a target. He believed K read town in day 1 ALL the way (which is why he wanted to night 1 kill him).
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My appologize to the fellow townies for not believing me. Great game to you galzria you were of course my lowest suspect. And well I knew robz was scum but hats off for getting everyone to think I was instead.
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The alppolgoes are actually for coming off scummy. I was trying so hard not to. But well robz and galz did a good job changing that picture
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Haha, the ONE piece of strategy he mentioned, night 3. "I might claim doctor". I told him (for above reasons of staying genuine) to do what he wants/feels he needs to, just don't tell me!
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I, you read town to me, for what it's worth.
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Actually, Robz and I rarely lied in this game.
Except for the BIG GIANT DOCTOR lie that I absolutely spotted from the moment it was uttered.
I would like to hear Robz's thinking on that. I just don't see how the risks of getting counterclaimed outweigh the benefits.
For what it's worth, I didn't actually assign the Doctor roleclaim any weight in my analysis. The big problem I couldn't get my head past was the fact that Insomniac's accusations just felt logically flimsy to me. In hindsight, I should have trusted instinct more. Either Insomniac's instinct - or my initial Day 3 instinct that "if my Day 2 analysis was wrong, the problem was my assumption as to Galzria."
But then there was all that juicy ANALYSIS! And jotheonah coming after me like a vengeful Fury! And finally the sheer irony of "oh they could have hammered me they didn't so it can't be them WHOOPS"
I think my feelings are best summed up thusly:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQQdSwFgSec (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQQdSwFgSec)
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I, you read town to me, for what it's worth.
That was, thankfully, key to us. You read I as town, V read him as innocent. Still, there was one thing I was left wondering. If V had for whatever reason voted R instead after I had my say, I WOULD'VE hammered Robz, claiming that broke up the pair so R must be Mafia. I would've night killed Voltgloss. Could I have convinced Insomniac that the last remaining player, J, the only non-Robz voter, was Mafia #2?
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V read insomniac as Mafia* (still not comfortable just editing. Lol)
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Yeah, sorry about that. I was really sure it was you. It was your (I see now good-natured) disengaging from me on Day 2 that really did it. I thought I was close to hitting a nerve. And then after that point, you never really defended yourself. You just asked questions and faded into the background. So confirmation bias kicked in and I just got surer and surer it was you, ignoring totally good reasons to turn on G.
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That video was awesome. For the second time this game, you come up aces in finding perfectly fit videos.
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Yeah, sorry about that. I was really sure it was you. It was your (I see now good-natured) disengaging from me on Day 2 that really did it. I thought I was close to hitting a nerve. And then after that point, you never really defended yourself. You just asked questions and faded into the background. So confirmation bias kicked in and I just got surer and surer it was you, ignoring totally good reasons to turn on G.
I disengaged for the reasons I said; our spat was going nowhere. And I didn't have the time or energy to continue the point-by-point rebuttal you were demanding. Plus, when you called me "Mr. Attorney" I got kinda annoyed. In the sense of, "This is a game, it's supposed to be fun, is THIS part of it fun? No. Then why do it?"
I figured if I stepped back and people other than you jumped on me for stepping back, then I'd know I had to defend myself. But no one else cared. Not even you seemed to care! (The Kuildeous train got rolling instead)
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J that does make me feel better it means that only one town thought I wasn't. Galzria I don't know I really really thought you were town but had you hammered Robz I would've expected YOU not V or J to die. You were the most town feeling to me so there was that. But because of that fact I expected you to face the night kill. I would've been thrown off by V dying and would've wanted substantial arguments from the both of you because I had a feeling I would be the decider in that case. Killing J in the night would probably be best for you as I had R-V as my most likely pair.
I did try and explain the roleclaim V Im not sure if Robz has the same reasoning but. 66% chance of counterclaim. If there is a counterclaim theres a 50/50 shot the mafia win and lynch the counter claim (If I had lied and counterclaimed for instance which I did think about). If there is no counterclaim then hes probably won. If he is lynched then as we see Galzria would've killed Robz
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Volt, yeah I just sort of got caught up in it. Sorry for being an RL jerk. That was uncalled for...
And my big problem this game was seeing good things and then not following up on them.
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Oh my goodness we win! Ha, yeah last night I was totally trying to signal to Galz that he should vote Volt and I would do it and that would be that. But yeah it was really risky to actually do that incase J unvoted, and we didn't need to take risks by then.
Galz played masterfully. I don't even understand how he did it. No one seriously suspected him, ever. And we were hardly mentioned as a possible pair.
So, I investigated Volt on Night 1 and J on Night 2. So I knew that Insomniac was the Doctor/Jailer or he was nothing and there was no Doctor. I thought I could beat Insomniac in a head-on argument, which is why we wanted him in the game this last round. But what if he roleclaimed? I HAD to beat him to it. And that immediate vote he placed on me gave me something of an excuse. So, that's why I did it. Really, I had to... because Insomniac was the only person who even could have had a role at that time, and he was the person I needed to convince you all to lynch.
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Volt, yeah I just sort of got caught up in it. Sorry for being an RL jerk. That was uncalled for...
And my big problem this game was seeing good things and then not following up on them.
I was worried leaving day 2 that there were too many things to see about me. I came into day 3 ready to fight for my life, but expecting I could die.
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Yeah, sorry about that. I was really sure it was you. It was your (I see now good-natured) disengaging from me on Day 2 that really did it. I thought I was close to hitting a nerve. And then after that point, you never really defended yourself. You just asked questions and faded into the background. So confirmation bias kicked in and I just got surer and surer it was you, ignoring totally good reasons to turn on G.
I disengaged for the reasons I said; our spat was going nowhere. And I didn't have the time or energy to continue the point-by-point rebuttal you were demanding. Plus, when you called me "Mr. Attorney" I got kinda annoyed. In the sense of, "This is a game, it's supposed to be fun, is THIS part of it fun? No. Then why do it?"
I figured if I stepped back and people other than you jumped on me for stepping back, then I'd know I had to defend myself. But no one else cared. Not even you seemed to care! (The Kuildeous train got rolling instead)
BTW, the prospect that the person I would have to out-argue in order to win the game was a lawyer was pretty terrifying to me, so I came on pretty strong as a way of sort of overcompensating for that, I guess.
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I want to post this, well, because it's fun, and because it shows my nervousness to the one person I COULD say something to:
Galzria breathed a sigh of relief. After the death of Tables and Morgrim the water was starting to heat up. Still, he thought, with a small smile creeping up the corners of his lips, things had certainly panned out well. With the death of Kuildeous, Town Vanilla, he knew the Mafia were one step closer to running this town.
But he couldn't rest yet. Suspicions would be running ever higher, and with dawn approaching, he could almost hear the clamor of the town already calling for his head. He knew he would have to prepare his case well. Still, there might be time to throw one more wrench into things. Bozzball. Yes, Bozzball. Quiet, unassuming, unsuspicious Bozzball. With him spending his days hiding away in his Estate, nobody could really expect him to be a Mafia mastermind. And what would the Mafia have to gain from killing him anyway? He certainly posed them no threats...
Galzria grimaced as he picked himself up out of bed. Well, might as well get this over with. No telling how much time was left. He put on his hat and coat, grabbed his cane, and quietly stepped out into the night. He knew Bozzball's Estate was on the other side of town, but he didn't get to this position in life by drawing attention to himself. This should be like taking candy from a baby...
Galzria, Mafia Goon, attempts to kill Bozzball.
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Yeah, Bozzball. No one was going to save Bozzball in the night.
Also, I had not forgotten his Round 1 vote for me for just speaking. Couldn't risk anything like that happening again.
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J, it's cool. We had our differences, they got us killed, no big deal. :)
Seriously though, I think my big mistake this game was getting too swept up in combing through everyone's rhetoric. I probably should have focused more on results (positions, votes, kills) rather than words. Not that peoples' words are unimportant - but they shouldn't overshadow the rest of the evidence available.
But anyway, it was still a fun game and a great experience. I'm glad I was part of it. :)
...so now that there's only 1 Mafia game underway, I am seriously thinking of moderating one myself. Mainly because I have what I think is an interesting flavor idea, and the one thing I think could have made our game more fun was more flavor. I'll mention this in the "void left by Mafia I" thread too, of course, and I suppose it's best to fork discussion of that over to there.
Kuildeous, when you get a chance to check on and shake your head ruefully at our debacle, do you mind posting the discussion quicktopic link?
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J, it's cool. We had our differences, they got us killed, no big deal. :)
Seriously though, I think my big mistake this game was getting too swept up in combing through everyone's rhetoric. I probably should have focused more on results (positions, votes, kills) rather than words. Not that peoples' words are unimportant - but they shouldn't overshadow the rest of the evidence available.
But anyway, it was still a fun game and a great experience. I'm glad I was part of it. :)
...so now that there's only 1 Mafia game underway, I am seriously thinking of moderating one myself. Mainly because I have what I think is an interesting flavor idea, and the one thing I think could have made our game more fun was more flavor. I'll mention this in the "void left by Mafia I" thread too, of course, and I suppose it's best to fork discussion of that over to there.
Kuildeous, when you get a chance to check on and shake your head ruefully at our debacle, do you mind posting the discussion quicktopic link?
Didn't he say on day 2 he was going to origins? Axxle has the link to so
Axxle now that it's over can we have the quicktopic link as well?
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J, it's cool. We had our differences, they got us killed, no big deal. :)
Seriously though, I think my big mistake this game was getting too swept up in combing through everyone's rhetoric. I probably should have focused more on results (positions, votes, kills) rather than words. Not that peoples' words are unimportant - but they shouldn't overshadow the rest of the evidence available.
But anyway, it was still a fun game and a great experience. I'm glad I was part of it. :)
...so now that there's only 1 Mafia game underway, I am seriously thinking of moderating one myself. Mainly because I have what I think is an interesting flavor idea, and the one thing I think could have made our game more fun was more flavor. I'll mention this in the "void left by Mafia I" thread too, of course, and I suppose it's best to fork discussion of that over to there.
Kuildeous, when you get a chance to check on and shake your head ruefully at our debacle, do you mind posting the discussion quicktopic link?
Ok, good to hear. Believe me when I say I care 100% more that I accidentally hurt your feelings/ made the game less fun for you than that we lost this stupid game. I have the utmost respect for your profession.
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I was worried it was coming apart in Day 2. Man I was scummy in Day 2. I ended up voting for K, even though it was clear I had singled him out as innocent earlier, and actually had been going after Insomniac.
You know, the Morgrim thing actually posed a huge problem for Galz and me, because there were only 4 Morgrim voters! That narrows it down, I thought. Luckily the whole dialogue shifted suspicion to the people who hadn't voted Morgrim. That was... fortunate.
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I posted in the "void left by Mafia I" topic about my proposed setup for Mafia IV. It's significantly different from Mafias I-III. I'd be very interested to hear all of your thoughts on it.
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I was worried it was coming apart in Day 2. Man I was scummy in Day 2. I ended up voting for K, even though it was clear I had singled him out as innocent earlier, and actually had been going after Insomniac.
You know, the Morgrim thing actually posed a huge problem for Galz and me, because there were only 4 Morgrim voters! That narrows it down, I thought. Luckily the whole dialogue shifted suspicion to the people who hadn't voted Morgrim. That was... fortunate.
Oh not fortunate. Quite deliberately orchestrated by Galzria, I should think. One-in, one-out.
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R, I stand by my stance that I wanted you to hit J day 2. With all the suspicion already there, you could've pushed it along (and indeed with me and J appearing "chummy", you were uniquely qualified to do so at that time).
I then could've linked back to my post: "Mark my words: Jothenah is town. Kuildeous is Mafia". Instead, you played the hard route of coming to my aid and getting ON the K-train!
Ah well, I can't complain now.
I still want to applaud you all again (and especially town) for making my first game so enjoyable and HARD. I look forward to being Mafia again in the future, but would love a game where I could relax a bit more as a townie with nothing to hide (Don't read anything in that sentence to be relevant to ongoing games. I could be Mafia or Town in them, I'm not saying).
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I deeply, deeply, deeply enjoy being the mafia.
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I was worried it was coming apart in Day 2. Man I was scummy in Day 2. I ended up voting for K, even though it was clear I had singled him out as innocent earlier, and actually had been going after Insomniac.
You know, the Morgrim thing actually posed a huge problem for Galz and me, because there were only 4 Morgrim voters! That narrows it down, I thought. Luckily the whole dialogue shifted suspicion to the people who hadn't voted Morgrim. That was... fortunate.
Oh not fortunate. Quite deliberately orchestrated by Galzria, I should think. One-in, one-out.
Well, it was the best shot we had, and early in the game, sounded reasonable. M's self lynch DID hurt us as much as you. I was looking desperately for a way to change that. I'm just glad it stuck. Honestly, you guys are giving me more credit than I deserve. I was more often shocked that anything I said carried weight. I generally wasn't concerned with Robz figuring he could fend for himself, I just tried to steer the conversation away from me, and in as helpful, townie way as I could.
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Also, lest I forget, HUGE round of applause to Axxle, who did a great job moderating. He was clear, concise, and timely. Constantly present and keeping us all straight. Very well done sir. +1 when you next post.
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The thing that made me feel the best this game is I did rat out a mafia, and when I did I just plowed on him. It didn't work but I stuck to my guns
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Also, lest I forget, HUGE round of applause to Axxle, who did a great job moderating. He was clear, concise, and timely. Constantly present and keeping us all straight. Very well done sir. +1 when you next post.
Agreed
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The thing that made me feel the best this game is I did rat out a mafia, and when I did I just plowed on him. It didn't work but I stuck to my guns
I agree. Had you just WAITED on your day 3 vote of him, it would've made it a lot harder, I think. Still, very good early read.
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The thing that made me feel the best this game is I did rat out a mafia, and when I did I just plowed on him. It didn't work but I stuck to my guns
I agree. Had you just WAITED on your day 3 vote of him, it would've made it a lot harder, I think. Still, very good early read.
When I voted for him I knew that since I knew he was mafia he wouldn't be hammered. Which at the time I thought ok great fantastic thatll make town realize that he's mafia. I forgot that it also made me look worse.
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Vote Count 3-5
Insomniac (3) - Robz888, Voltgloss, Galzria
Robz888 (1) - Insomniac
Voltgloss (1) - jotheonah
With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch
Deadline: Sunday, June 10, 2012 12pm PDT
Well... as you guys have figured out already Insomniac was a Vanilla Townie and Robz and Galz were the Mafia. Congrats on a Mafia win! You deserved it.
Here's the link to the QuickTopic... It's deader then bozzball though.
http://www.quicktopic.com/47/H/nZDZf7XpyVHSk
In a rush to get to work so can't say much more now.
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Thanks again Axxle, great job.
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Agreed. Great job moderating, Axxle. Thanks again for the fun game. :)
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Here, here. Quite enjoyable. Though man, I was kinda hoping for a little more action on our QT. I was ready to feel like a celebrity or a reality TV star or something.
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Here, here. Quite enjoyable. Though man, I was kinda hoping for a little more action on our QT. I was ready to feel like a celebrity or a reality TV star or something.
With Mafia-I, the action was much much easier to follow, and we had actual information to go off of.
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Here, here. Quite enjoyable. Though man, I was kinda hoping for a little more action on our QT. I was ready to feel like a celebrity or a reality TV star or something.
With Mafia-I, the action was much much easier to follow, and we had actual information to go off of.
Btw, serious +1's to anybody who DID read through everything and followed this game. You seriously have a Mafia obsession. (I believe that O did this. Crazy, crazy person).
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Actually if you looked at the number of times viewed it was way too high to be just us, even assuming some of us checked it pretty obsessively. So I'm guessing there are more lurkers than we'd guess, although fewer since theory made the games forum non-publicly viewable.
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Actually if you looked at the number of times viewed it was way too high to be just us, even assuming some of us checked it pretty obsessively. So I'm guessing there are more lurkers than we'd guess, although fewer since theory made the games forum non-publicly viewable.
Oh I know. ;) My post was to try and lure them out of hiding for free +1's, and increase conversation about the game from outside observers.
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I tried to keep up but failed and skipped from somewhere around page 22 to the end tonight. No offense but man, that was a boring game. Too much waffling and not enough doing stuff.
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I'll admit to following the thread (mostly...skimmed some of the super-long posts, especially Galzria's summaries. And I only ever read things once).
I waffled around on who I thought was mafia...
Day 3 I suspected Robz, because of his bad math defending his Jailkeeper claim (assuming all investigations were non-lynched he had like a 28% chance of a counter-claim...additionally I supposed Insomniac was the un-scouted person). Also I thought Insomniac's vote on Robz was bad Mafia play. (why limit it to 50/50 as mafia when you could have 60-40 chance of non-mafia chosen). But then I also thought Insomniac was guilty because you guys were so convincing. Eventually, before the votes went down I decided that it "had to be" RobZ and Volt because of Volt's day 2 analysis which concluded the most likely pairing as I-K. (seriously, 2 non-Morgrim voters as Mafia is MOST LIKELY???)
I never suspected Galz.
Anyways, that's what I thought reading through Day 3 (and I was definitely curious to find out who was really guilty)
I'm pretty much a lurker everywhere I go, so it wasn't much different to follow this.
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Fine, fine, I'll reveal my role, I'm one of the Town Lurkers!
I definitely didn't read most of the big walls-of-text, and thus didn't really have strong opinions on who was who. I skimmed.
BTW, I'd also like to comment that out-of-game comments about your role are really, really damaging to the game. I was leaning towards Insomniac mafia until he made his out-of-game comment in the other thread about his role, which pretty much convinced me he was town. So don't do that, people.
This game reminded me much more of IRL mafia games - lots of finger-pointing, no real information, votes end up being no better than random chance.
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Robz, were you actually drunk or were you trying to make yourself look less threatening? ;)
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Robz, were you actually drunk or were you trying to make yourself look less threatening? ;)
Ha! I was at the bar and I was drinking... but no, I was not in bad shape at all, really. 8)
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We were just busy sending vague obtuse tells to each other. I DID use his drinking as a slight cover though. 8) But even I didn't think he was 'hammered'.
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And the exact reads, if you are curious:
Robz: I am at the bar right now but am following very closely.
This was: Galzria, if you are there, switch to V and I will too.
Galzria: Boy, you ARE drunk! I meant you and I can't be a pair because we are not hammering, yet could
This was: I hear you, but don't risk it! Don't switch to V!
I then followed up with "My phone is dying" (not true at all at the time), but I wanted him to know I wasn't going to be there so he wouldn't switch.
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And the exact reads, if you are curious:
Robz: I am at the bar right now but am following very closely.
This was: Galzria, if you are there, switch to V and I will too.
Galzria: Boy, you ARE drunk! I meant you and I can't be a pair because we are not hammering, yet could
This was: I hear you, but don't risk it! Don't switch to V!
I then followed up with "My phone is dying" (not true at all at the time), but I wanted him to know I wasn't going to be there so he wouldn't switch.
Oh wow, I thought it was:
Galzria: Boy, you ARE drunk! I meant you and I can't be a pair because we are not hammering, yet could
which meant, "Switch already so I can follow you and win this thing!"
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Another quick thought (and in light of the Avatars thread): During the creation of my mammoth posts day 3, I wanted to yell a HUGE thank you to the people with Avatars. Made post hunting SO much easier. So I highly encourage everybody who plays to take 5 minutes to grab one.
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Well, gg everyone. Thanks especially to Axxle for a great game.
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Sorry you went early Morgrim! I know that's never desirable or fun. You were a good sport about it, and I HIGHLY look forward to playing more games with you in the future.
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A last thought I had Galz. Say volt and yourself hadn't killed me before jotheonah switched to robz. Would you have hammered robz or waited to see what volt did.
Also if anyone's curious the reason I didn't counterclaim aside from not being a role was that i saw it making me a night kill and then showing up as a liar on day 4 which I don't think would have helped as it would have incriminated g (who I thought was town) and j (who I also thought was town. Just less so)
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An aside. I'll get an avatar before m4 goes live
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A last thought I had Galz. Say volt and yourself hadn't killed me before jotheonah switched to robz. Would you have hammered robz or waited to see what volt did.
Also if anyone's curious the reason I didn't counterclaim aside from not being a role was that i saw it making me a night kill and then showing up as a liar on day 4 which I don't think would have helped as it would have incriminated g (who I thought was town) and j (who I also thought was town. Just less so)
Well, yes you shouldn't have counter-claimed, because you were a townie. I thought you might counter-claim because you were the only person who could possibly have a role. Which is why I came out with it before you could.
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Yes, Insomniac, I would've. I actual didn't think J would change his vote, and that worked well for me. Had I felt the need to hammer Rob (If V had cast there), I wanted someone left on the outside.
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Oh, wait, sorry! Misunderstood. Would I have voted with J? No. I felt I had split V and J well enough that they would play me for the deciding vote (as J pointed out when he switched before seeing my vote).
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So... yeah.
I got a guilty on Robz night 1 - After reading, he was my prime suspect due to his general behaviour and also gut feeling, with Voltgloss and Galzria not far behind - Volt because I found some of his reasoning for voting Morgrim EXTREMELY suspect and forced, Galzria for constantly talking about what the mafia wants to do, something townies don't really want or need to do much.
My notes are here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ApPT0N9WtHcKdHBrVm14bmotaWs0UmFTb1lwaEdBZGc#gid=0), although I stopped updating after night 1. I'd say be careful as I might pick you out on things, but you joined a game of mafia, so you should be expecting it...
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So... yeah.
I got a guilty on Robz night 1 - After reading, he was my prime suspect due to his general behaviour and also gut feeling, with Voltgloss and Galzria not far behind - Volt because I found some of his reasoning for voting Morgrim EXTREMELY suspect and forced, Galzria for constantly talking about what the mafia wants to do, something townies don't really want or need to do much.
My notes are here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ApPT0N9WtHcKdHBrVm14bmotaWs0UmFTb1lwaEdBZGc#gid=0), although I stopped updating after night 1. I'd say be careful as I might pick you out on things, but you joined a game of mafia, so you should be expecting it...
Well, we were very lucky then. So glad Galzria convinced me we should kill you! I think I wanted to kill Kuildeous.
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Wow, great stuff Tables. I feel 100% now that my choice night 1 was right in killing you. ;D
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I was actually quite relieved when I got lynched. I don't know that I could have handled arguing through Day 3. Day 2 was intense enough.
I have to agree that Mafia II wasn't as exciting as Mafia I. Maybe it was because we never got to use our town role. I'm sure part of it was that I'm not well-suited to Mafia-by-forum games. It brings out my inner conspiracy theorist. I could never conclude that anyone was definitely Town. The closest I got was that I was leaning toward Insomniac being Town with his support in Day 2 and toward Galzria being Town because his hammering seemed so transparently Mafia that I couldn't believe he would be Mafia, so nice double-bluff there.
All that being said, I don't think I could do another Mafia game again. With the roles, things were rolling pretty well in Mafia I. In Mafia II, it really did feel like everything we did was random. And judging by our voting records, it might as well have been random. I was getting a strong feel for Robz being Mafia since he did change his tune, but it was hard to convince everyone of that. By joining Insomniac in his quest to hang Robz, I only cemented the possibility of an Insomniac-Kuildeous alliance, which it actually turned out to be...only on the side of good. I had hoped that when the townies realized their mistake that they would give Insomniac's accusation more weight. Robz and Galzria were able to deflect that pretty well, though.
I did find a tell in the Mafia that I only caught after Axxle locked the thread. I really wish it hit me sooner so I could have posted my final accusations. I noticed that Galzria and Robz were the only ones to state that bozzball was 100% town. As I recall, the others were pretty positive that bozzball was town but did not state it as emphatically as those two.
Well done. I don't regret playing, but it definitely was not my type of game. It was vexing me too much.
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Sorry about going at you so much K. I'm not sure if you would've been happier or not with Robz wanting to lynch you night 1. I really didn't target you, or anybody else prior to day 2 starting. I just let my thoughts flow in my first full post, and honestly, as Robz mentioned about Morgrim, there probably was a part of me that DID believe my own words: You just had to be Mafia!
I very much enjoyed having you here, even if I was a bit unfair towards you (side note: as I'm a dead townie in M-III, I can emphatically say, being town SUCKS compared to Mafia!)
You could try Resistance if there is another game. I'm finding it MUCH slower, relaxed, and more informational based on gameplay, not just reads. Plus, you're in the game until it ends!
Off-topic, how was Origins? C'mon, spill!
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No hard feelings, Galzria. This goes for all of you.
I see the nature of the game. Mafia needs to persecute innocent people. And the innocent people don't even know who is safe (unless you're a cop that doesn't get targeted in Day 1). So, I can't really blame the others for jumping on the bandwagon. After all, the only thing I could do was to state my innocence, which is what 100% of the players are already doing.
I was trying to withhold thoughts and lure people into traps, but it was just too difficult in a forum game. Like I said, it is incredibly easy to make convincing arguments when you have the time to reread your post. That also means rereading my posts and identifying the traps. If it was face-to-face, I'm sure it would have been easier to make the Mafia slip up.
Then I read that it benefits the town to talk as much as possible. I was dubious, but I went with it, no longer withholding anything and sharing all of my thoughts. I guess a typical player probably would not have been as scattered as I was, and that was my undoing. Lesson learned.
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That last posting was horribly off-topic. I have requested the mods to branch it into a more appropriate forum.
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Apologies to all for not being more present in the game. Really was lost and had no idea how to judge people.
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Apologies to all for not being more present in the game. Really was lost and had no idea how to judge people.
It's all cool. I suspect that, like me, you never played one of these in a forum format. I know I had no idea how much reading this would entail. It looks like the games just keep getting longer. We surpassed Mafia I in page count. Mafia III and Mafia IV have already surpassed this game, and they don't even have a second lynching yet. I'm really glad I didn't hop into either of those games.
And I had no idea how to vote either. I could technically claim the high road in that I was not a part of Morgrim's lynching, but that wouldn't really be true. I didn't lynch him only because I was waiting. I picked up that a lynching was necessary, so I was willing to cast that vote. Morgrim just beat me to it.
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I'm bummed that I just got hammered without an opportunity to say "And I would've gotten away with it if it weren't for you mangy kids and your dog!"
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I'm bummed that I just got hammered without an opportunity to say "And I would've gotten away with it if it weren't for you mangy kids and your dog!"
LOL, but I think insomniac would modkill you for posting while dead.
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I'm bummed that I just got hammered without an opportunity to say "And I would've gotten away with it if it weren't for you mangy kids and your dog!"
LOL, but I think insomniac would modkill you for posting while dead.
You can talk in twilight. He'd already be hammered, can't get killed twice.
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I'm bummed that I just got hammered without an opportunity to say "And I would've gotten away with it if it weren't for you mangy kids and your dog!"
LOL, but I think insomniac would modkill you for posting while dead.
You can talk in twilight. He'd already be hammered, can't get killed twice.
Sorry - was joking, but we're still not supposed to talk. I got slapped for posting in the M3 discussion.
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Whoops, I was confused by what game he was talking about. That's what I get for posting before breakfast.