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Miscellaneous => Forum Games => Mafia Game Threads => Topic started by: mail-mi on August 13, 2020, 11:09:01 am

Title: M131: Quarantine Mafia (Game Over)
Post by: mail-mi on August 13, 2020, 11:09:01 am
Masks are required to enter this game.

Welcome to M131: Quarantine Mafia!

This game is for 9 players, and is classified as normal. It uses an open setup called Medical Mafia (https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Medical_Mafia). See post #2

Comod: WestCoastDidds

Players:

1. MiX
2. cayvie
3. Awaclus
4. scolapasta
5. Swowl Killed N1. Doctor.
6. EFHW
7. Dylan32 Killed N1. Doctor.
8. jotheonah Killed N1. Doctor.
9. Straw

Tags:


The Rules:

The Golden Rule:
This is a game. Everyone who signs up to play must be considerate of each other, never get personal, and focus on having fun. Once the game starts, having signed up is a commitment: inactivity is just as inconsiderate as rude comments.

The Standard Rules:
1. No communication between players outside of the game thread or shared QTs at any time. This includes passing references, jokes, or cases in other games or threads, whether in context or not.
2. If the game thread is locked, do not post. If you are unsure if something is locked, ask the mod by PM.
3. Direct or verbatim quoting of mod-provided information (including QT opening and closing times) is strictly forbidden. Paraphrasing is okay.
4. Actions with instructions that do not specify a game state will be resolved in the order they are received.
5. All night actions must be submitted within 36 hours of day ending.
6. Players must post once every 24 hours.
7. Do not edit or delete posts, ever. If you need to clarify or correct something, post again.
8. Invisible text, font size less than 10, and spoiler tags are not allowed.
9. Cryptography is not allowed.
10. The time between an exile being reached and a flip being provided is called twilight. All players may continue posting during this time, including the exiled player.
11. Dead players may not post in thread or QT, except their Role QT. An exiled player is not "dead" until a flip has been provided.
12. Personal multimedia, such as video or audio recordings, are not allowed in the game thread.

The Voting Rules:
1. Votes should be in this format: Vote: Playername. Unambigiuous nicknames are acceptable, or any string that uniquely identifies a user. Note that the point of voting is, in fact, unambiguity, and attempting to make it unclear to other players (or, of course, mods) which user you are voting for is very ill-advised.
2. Unvotes should be in this format: unvote or Unvote: Playername.
3. Unvotes are not required if changing your vote from one player to another.
4. You may vote: no exile.
5. Exiles occur when a simple majority (rounded up) of living players is reached. Once reached, an exile cannot be undone.
6. If a majority lynch is not reached by the Day's deadline, no lynch occurs.

The Rest:
1. Bold, limegreen text is reserved for the mod. Players may not use it.
2. If you have an issue or problem with the game, please PM the Mod. Do not post complaints in the game thread.
3. Mods make mistakes - please point them out gently. If they can be corrected, they will. If irreversible, they will stand as final to be commiserated over after the game.
4. If a mod error disadvantages one faction greatly, the game may be called off.
5. Ask all questions and make all requests directly to the Mod via PM. Questions deemed as "universal" (defined as questions for which the answers should be available to all players) will be requested to be re-posted in the Game Thread and answered there.
6. Players may request prods on other players if they have not posted in 24 hours. Players are subject to replacement or modkill after one prod.
7. All rule violations will be dealt with according to their severity, as determined by the mod.
8. Each player will receive their own QT, regardless of role. Don't quote from it.
9. If the game goes on for 3 days and 3 nights without a lynch or nightkill, town wins.

Deadlines:
1. Days will last seven IRL days.
2. Nights will last between 36 and 48 hours.
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on August 13, 2020, 11:09:16 am
This game will use the setup Medical Mafia (https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Medical_Mafia), with changes adjusted for quarantine flavor.

Flavor: In this game, Mafia will be known as Carriers. Carrier nightkills will be known as "Infecting", and exiles will be known as "Testing."

Setup:

This is a 9 player setup, with the following roles:
- 2 Carriers
- 1 Doctor
- 1 Weak Doctor
- 1 CPR Doctor
- 1 Paranoid Doctor
- 1 Quack Doctor
- 1 Naive Doctor
- 1 Nurse

Mechanics:

- Daystart
- Every player who is a Doctor is not told which version they are, and will be revealed as "Doctor"
- Doctors who protect only stop a single nightkill
- Weak Doctor dies if it targets a Mafia Goon (and isn't protected themself)
- CPR Doctor saves their target from a nightkill, but if the player isn't actually targeted for a nightkill, the CPR Doctor kills them instead.
- Paranoid Doctor is the functional equivalent of a Jailkeeper
- Quack Doctor kills their target instead of protecting them, the functional equivalent of a Vigilante
- Naive Doctor does nothing at all
- Nurse becomes the role of the first Doctor to die.
- Endgame Ruling: Mafia win when they control 50% of the town, regardless of whichever Doctor(s) are still alive.

Role QTs:

Quote
Welcome to M131, [playername]! You are a Carrier, along with your partner [playername].

Abilities:
Factional Communication: Each Night, you may talk with your partner here: [link]
Infection: Each night, you or your partner may Infect another player. That player will die.

You win when you control 50% of the town. Please /confirm when you have read and understand your role.

Quote
Welcome to M131, [playername]! You are a Town Doctor!

Abilities:
You have an expirimental vaccine that is supposed to protect others from COVID-19. Each night, you may give another player this vaccine. You're not exactly sure what it will do, though...

You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least 1 town player alive. Please /confirm when you have read and understand your role.

Quote
Welcome to M131, [playername]! You are a Town Nurse!

Abilities:
Upon the death of the first Doctor, you will gain access to their experimental vaccine.

You win when all threats to the Town have been eliminated and there is at least 1 town player alive. Please /confirm when you have read and understand your role.

Note: This game will not start until after Marvel Mafia has ended.
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: MiX on August 13, 2020, 11:28:28 am
/in, I've looked at this setup a bunch and it's pretty interesting.
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: Robz888 on August 13, 2020, 11:36:47 am
I believe we played this setup for Mafia 5! It ended hilariously.
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on August 13, 2020, 11:42:27 am
/in
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on August 13, 2020, 11:45:36 am
Do kills and protections stack? I.e. if weak doctor targets a goon and is also the target of a nightkill, and they're being targeted by the regular doctor and the CPR doctor, would they live?
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on August 13, 2020, 11:48:36 am
Do kills and protections stack? I.e. if weak doctor targets a goon and is also the target of a nightkill, and they're being targeted by the regular doctor and the CPR doctor, would they live?

Yes, kills and protections stack.
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: Awaclus on August 13, 2020, 12:14:57 pm
/in
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: scolapasta on August 13, 2020, 02:10:43 pm
/intern
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: Swowl on August 13, 2020, 02:27:46 pm
/INfected
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: EFHW on August 13, 2020, 05:31:01 pm
I'm /in.
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: Dylan32 on August 13, 2020, 05:32:40 pm
/intrigued
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on August 13, 2020, 06:04:59 pm
If the paranoid doctor targets the weak doctor who is targeting a goon, does the weak doctor's ability trigger?
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on August 13, 2020, 06:18:34 pm
If the paranoid doctor targets the weak doctor who is targeting a goon, does the weak doctor's ability trigger?

No, because the weak doctor never targeted the goon since they were roleblocked.
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: Dylan32 on August 13, 2020, 06:44:00 pm
Does a regular doctor protect someone from death who is targeted by the quack or cpr doctor (and not also targeted for infection)?
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on August 13, 2020, 07:13:36 pm
Does a regular doctor protect someone from death who is targeted by the quack or cpr doctor (and not also targeted for infection)?

Yes, doctors who protect from kills protect from all kinds of kills.
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: WestCoastDidds on August 13, 2020, 07:27:36 pm
Itís like a game of try to stump yams!
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on August 13, 2020, 07:51:48 pm
Itís like a game of try to stump yams!

Ah hah, but since you're comod, they're trying to stump you too!
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: WestCoastDidds on August 13, 2020, 11:23:56 pm
Itís like a game of try to stump yams!

Ah hah, but since you're comod, they're trying to stump you too!

Truth! But you know the answers! (whew!)
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: Swowl on August 14, 2020, 12:09:16 am
Mafia win con triggers at start of day yeah?
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on August 14, 2020, 12:39:24 am
Mafia win con triggers at start of day yeah?

It triggers whenever mafia have 50% of town, start or end of day  At least, that's what I think it means when it says "regardless of whatever doctors are alive." (Otherwise, a game of 2 mafia, the CPR doctor, and the Quack doctor going into night could result in a town win).
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: jotheonah on August 14, 2020, 09:09:05 am
I ran this as my first ever modding gig. With Dominion flavor.

/in
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: jotheonah on August 14, 2020, 09:11:51 am
For those of you interested in ancient history: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2893.0
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: jotheonah on August 14, 2020, 09:16:20 am
I had a publicly-posted resolution order for night actions. I would recommend the same...
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: Straw on August 14, 2020, 09:50:42 am
I'm /in
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on August 14, 2020, 10:05:27 am
I'm /in

Welcome! Please be sure to sign the civility pledge (found here: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7695.0) and if you don't want the captcha every time, make a post outside the mafia games forum (here is a good topic for that: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=18043.0)
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on August 14, 2020, 10:58:28 am
I had a publicly-posted resolution order for night actions. I would recommend the same...

Is it really that complicated, though? It looks complicated, but you just have to resolve Paranoid first, then see which players are being killed/protected, right?
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: jotheonah on August 14, 2020, 11:06:02 am
I just know that when I ran it there were a lot a lot a lot of questions for me. Of course, that was the early Wild West days of forum mafia and some of those questions have obvious established answers now (like no, Robz, you can't link out to a Google Sheet :P)
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: cayvie on August 14, 2020, 12:30:10 pm
I'm /in

cool, good luck :D
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: WestCoastDidds on August 14, 2020, 02:55:13 pm
I'm /in

cool, good luck :D

Cayvie! Is Straw one of your recruits??
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: cayvie on August 14, 2020, 04:44:35 pm
I'm /in

cool, good luck :D

Cayvie! Is Straw one of your recruits??

haha yea i finally won a bet lol
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on August 15, 2020, 12:07:24 am
As noted in Post #2, this game will not start until Marvel is over.
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on August 15, 2020, 11:46:03 pm
I'm /out, sorry
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: cayvie on August 16, 2020, 02:28:39 am
i'll /in then
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: Joseph2302 on August 19, 2020, 06:39:59 pm
Is it really appropriate to me making a COVID-19 themed game whilst we're still in the pandemic and over 700,000 people have died from it? To me this seems just as insensitive as using the word lynch in these games
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: Swowl on August 19, 2020, 11:28:10 pm
Are you against the lynch thing?
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: Joseph2302 on August 20, 2020, 04:54:28 am
Are you against the lynch thing?
Yes I am because it's insensitive (see my posts on that thread). But I don't see how this isn't insensitive too
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: Awaclus on August 20, 2020, 07:18:25 am
Is it really appropriate to me making a COVID-19 themed game whilst we're still in the pandemic and over 700,000 people have died from it? To me this seems just as insensitive as using the word lynch in these games

Does anyone who actually signed up for the game think this?
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: EFHW on August 20, 2020, 09:25:34 am
Is it really appropriate to me making a COVID-19 themed game whilst we're still in the pandemic and over 700,000 people have died from it? To me this seems just as insensitive as using the word lynch in these games

Does anyone who actually signed up for the game think this?

This is a hard one. The problem with lynch was that it excluded people and represented terrorist actions against a whole group of people based solely on skin color. This seems different, but there is still a lot of emotional pain involved. If anyone feels like their experiences are being trivialized, then I agree it is a problem. I think of mafia as a way to deal with dark things, but maybe I am insulated enough from the virus so far that I don't understand how others might be feeling.
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on August 20, 2020, 11:44:27 am
Is it really appropriate to me making a COVID-19 themed game whilst we're still in the pandemic and over 700,000 people have died from it? To me this seems just as insensitive as using the word lynch in these games

Here's how I look at it: In the midst of hardship, one of the best things I think we can do is find the humor within it. It is no joke that over 700,000 people have died, but it is funny how everyone freaked out and emptied the stores of toilet paper. So I think having a mafia game themed after it is just harmless fun. After all, mafia itself is themed after real-life mafias that have murdered plenty of people and committed many crimes, and yet we still play with the theme of mafia for fun.
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: cayvie on August 20, 2020, 01:02:09 pm
i feel like this is a current event, whose legacy hasn't been yet settled

what's okay and what's too insensitive, we don't know yet; this stuff gets decided by trial and error. and now is the best time to explore it. so yea i think we should go forward with this, but keep an eye out to see if any problems arise. and be willing to listen if they do.
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: WestCoastDidds on August 20, 2020, 01:09:00 pm
I think it could easily be called quarantine mafia of the specific reference is offensive to the players or the community.

I donít think either yams or I intend to make jokes at anyoneís expense or make light of suffering that would render the game offensive.

But for sure scum has a toilet paper hoarder.
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on August 26, 2020, 10:33:45 am
With marvel mafia over, there are currently no games running on this site. That is just wrong.

This game will start later today, unless there are any objections.
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 26, 2020, 01:31:39 pm
/tag :-)
Title: Re: M131: COVID-19 Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on August 26, 2020, 01:35:26 pm
Is it really appropriate to me making a COVID-19 themed game whilst we're still in the pandemic and over 700,000 people have died from it? To me this seems just as insensitive as using the word lynch in these games

In the interest of the above, I have decided to rename the game to "Quarantine" mafia, in order to be a little more sensitive to those that have lost loved ones to the COVID-19 virus.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: Dylan32 on August 26, 2020, 02:18:02 pm
I just went to /in, saw the game was full, got sad, then realized I already joined earlier and forgot. Now I'm happy again.

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/6ba72bc9c6218042e6f1a7d0e5adcbb0/tenor.gif?itemid=10882045)
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on August 26, 2020, 04:31:07 pm
The setup is being put together as we speak. PMs will be out shortly. In the meantime, Thread Locked! except for /tags.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on August 26, 2020, 04:50:04 pm
All PMs have been sent out! Please /confirm in your QTs. Night 0 will start once all players have confirmed and will last ~24 hours.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: Galzria on August 26, 2020, 05:28:48 pm
/tag
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: Joseph2302 on August 27, 2020, 08:12:33 am
/tag
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: WestCoastDidds on August 27, 2020, 08:19:49 am
Good morning, friends!

The quarantine has begun. Everyone has confirmed so N0 starts now and will last until tomorrow (8/28) morning.

Being locked up together affects us all different. Bored, stir crazy, sleepy, restless.... maybe itís time to start another jigsaw puzzle or work on perfecting your vaccine experiments.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on August 28, 2020, 11:39:40 am
It was a typical, cozy morning in the apartment of eleven medical students when mail-mi came home with horrible news. Awaclus was enjoying a nice breakfast. jotheonah was in the shower. WestCoastDidds was working on a papaer, and EFHW was studying for exams. None of them knew that their lives were about to change--drastically.

mail-mi burst into the main room. "I have bad news y'all." In his hands he held a sheet of paper with the insignia of the university's hospital. "I tested positive."

One of the dishes that Dylan32 was washing dropped to the floor and shattered. "You're kidding me!" he said. "Does this mean..."

"Yes," mail-mi said. "We have to quarantine for 2 weeks."

"Nooooo" MiX cried. "I hate attending classes online."

"Tell me about it." Straw complained. "I had a date tomorrow too!"

"That's not the worst of it," mail-mi said. "I haven't been outside this apartment for a month now, considering all my classes are online and the dating scene is not very flush for me right now. It means I must have gotten it from one of you."

Swowl came out from one of the many bedrooms, rubbing tired eyes. "What's going on?"

"mail-mi's got the Sickness," cayvie explained, "and he got it from one of us."

"Fortunately," mail-mi said, "the hospital sent me with several take-at-home tests for the Sickness." He laid out ten tests on the large kitchen table. scolapasta picked one up, examining it. It looked a little like the blood prick test that diabetics would take to test their insulin levels.

"So," mail-mi asked, "who wants to go first?"

Vote Count 1.0

Not Voting (9): MiX, cayvie, Awaclus, scolapasta, Swowl, EFHW, Dylan32, jotheonah, Straw

With 9 alive it takes 5 to Test.

Day 1 starts now and ends at 11:40 AM FT on Friday, September 4th.

Thread Unlocked!
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: scolapasta on August 28, 2020, 11:40:04 am
Vote: scolapasta

After Marvel, someone was going to do it, why not me?

(and now when *you* do it, is it really RVS??)



Also (make sure you watch until the end, Chevy Chase and Dan Aykroyd, are clearly the scum!):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dhkwh8u30mo
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: MiX on August 28, 2020, 11:48:01 am
"Nooooo" MiX cried. "I hate attending classes online."

(How does he know...)

Hi everyone!

Vote: cayvie, where did you find Straw?

Straw, who are you? Tell us everything!

PPE: You took my first RVS vote  :'(
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: jotheonah on August 28, 2020, 12:28:20 pm
Hey. I am taking a half day at work today, so I'll be able to mafia a lot in an hour or two.

in the meantime,

Vote: scolapasta

He's uniquely positioned to know whether or not he's scum and he appears to think that he is based on his use of his vote. So I'm happy to sheep him.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: cayvie on August 28, 2020, 12:44:07 pm
"Nooooo" MiX cried. "I hate attending classes online."

(How does he know...)

Hi everyone!

Vote: cayvie, where did you find Straw?

Straw, who are you? Tell us everything!

PPE: You took my first RVS vote  :'(

champs spec chat! i have done well in betting in the semifinals.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 28, 2020, 12:50:35 pm
so this appears to be a Dethy variant, and most of these are solvable wins for town. specifically, this seems quite similar to 7-player Dethy (2 mafia, 4 cops of varying skill, 1 vig). However, the difference here is that the vig doesn't know they're a vig, so that solution won't work.

My initial thought here is that everyone should target the people we personally find *scummiest* with our abilities; the most valuable thing a doctor can do is to vig a carrier. and two doctors have a chance of doing that (quack, CPR doc).

thoughts?

other considerations: do we announce our intended targets (with the nurse lying)? that would help us in the case that the weak doctor targets a carrier. my instinct is no, that this helps carriers more than it helps town, but idk.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 28, 2020, 12:55:14 pm
so this appears to be a Dethy variant, and most of these are solvable wins for town. specifically, this seems quite similar to 7-player Dethy (2 mafia, 4 cops of varying skill, 1 vig). However, the difference here is that the vig doesn't know they're a vig, so that solution won't work.

My initial thought here is that everyone should target the people we personally find *scummiest* with our abilities; the most valuable thing a doctor can do is to vig a carrier. and two doctors have a chance of doing that (quack, CPR doc).

thoughts?

other considerations: do we announce our intended targets (with the nurse lying)? that would help us in the case that the weak doctor targets a carrier. my instinct is no, that this helps carriers more than it helps town, but idk.

I agree that we should try to pick scum. However, I think the best plan is everyone picking exactly 1 person, most likely in a single chain (we could use setup order, for example, but I hate that). If everyone picks scumreads, then the chances of vigging scum are severely lowered, as the real docs will also pick them. Besides, if we spread out, we make sure the vig is unapposed, and we can learn from the weak doctor.

With this I suggest we all announce our targets, and try to coordinate a chain of 8 people all targeting each other in a circle, with the 9th person replacing whoever we exile. Exiling doesn't break knowing exactly which doctors there are, since the nurse replaces them.

I have a pretty convoluted plan for picking how we setup the chain, but that's not very important right now.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 28, 2020, 01:00:15 pm
so this appears to be a Dethy variant, and most of these are solvable wins for town. specifically, this seems quite similar to 7-player Dethy (2 mafia, 4 cops of varying skill, 1 vig). However, the difference here is that the vig doesn't know they're a vig, so that solution won't work.

My initial thought here is that everyone should target the people we personally find *scummiest* with our abilities; the most valuable thing a doctor can do is to vig a carrier. and two doctors have a chance of doing that (quack, CPR doc).

thoughts?

other considerations: do we announce our intended targets (with the nurse lying)? that would help us in the case that the weak doctor targets a carrier. my instinct is no, that this helps carriers more than it helps town, but idk.

I agree that we should try to pick scum. However, I think the best plan is everyone picking exactly 1 person, most likely in a single chain (we could use setup order, for example, but I hate that). If everyone picks scumreads, then the chances of vigging scum are severely lowered, as the real docs will also pick them. Besides, if we spread out, we make sure the vig is unapposed, and we can learn from the weak doctor.

With this I suggest we all announce our targets, and try to coordinate a chain of 8 people all targeting each other in a circle, with the 9th person replacing whoever we exile. Exiling doesn't break knowing exactly which doctors there are, since the nurse replaces them.

I have a pretty convoluted plan for picking how we setup the chain, but that's not very important right now.

this seems promising.

i guess another consideration: should we no exile day 1? town have two potential kills, so we theoretically have more killing power than carriers already, so our exile isn't the biggest consideration. i'm kind of leaning toward vote: no exile right now, force the carriers to try to kill our vigs for us, and put it on them to get thru the backup.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 28, 2020, 01:03:45 pm
No exile's fine, but I don't like randomizing what nurse ends up as. Knowing that the nurse isn't dead if they don't flip is good, however.

Oh hey that gives me a good question.

If the nurse turns into a doctor, do they now flip as a doctor, or a nurse?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 28, 2020, 01:11:18 pm
No exile's fine, but I don't like randomizing what nurse ends up as. Knowing that the nurse isn't dead if they don't flip is good, however.

Oh hey that gives me a good question.

If the nurse turns into a doctor, do they now flip as a doctor, or a nurse?

I guess one variation we could do is to have the nurse claim, and then everyone else targets in a circle. This increases the odds of vigging a carrier n1 while we're at it
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 28, 2020, 01:13:22 pm
No exile's fine, but I don't like randomizing what nurse ends up as. Knowing that the nurse isn't dead if they don't flip is good, however.

Oh hey that gives me a good question.

If the nurse turns into a doctor, do they now flip as a doctor, or a nurse?

I guess one variation we could do is to have the nurse claim, and then everyone else targets in a circle. This increases the odds of vigging a carrier n1 while we're at it

Then whoever isn't being protected is NK'd, in this case, the nurse.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 28, 2020, 01:16:34 pm
No exile's fine, but I don't like randomizing what nurse ends up as. Knowing that the nurse isn't dead if they don't flip is good, however.

Oh hey that gives me a good question.

If the nurse turns into a doctor, do they now flip as a doctor, or a nurse?

I guess one variation we could do is to have the nurse claim, and then everyone else targets in a circle. This increases the odds of vigging a carrier n1 while we're at it

Then whoever isn't being protected is NK'd, in this case, the nurse.

Is that a bad outcome? I would imagine otherwise it's pretty random whom we lose. Having an ic is nice.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 28, 2020, 01:17:58 pm
Going into day 2 minus the nurse, and with all of us knowing for sure who the vigs are seems like a plus.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 28, 2020, 01:18:52 pm
No exile's fine, but I don't like randomizing what nurse ends up as. Knowing that the nurse isn't dead if they don't flip is good, however.

Oh hey that gives me a good question.

If the nurse turns into a doctor, do they now flip as a doctor, or a nurse?

I guess one variation we could do is to have the nurse claim, and then everyone else targets in a circle. This increases the odds of vigging a carrier n1 while we're at it

Then whoever isn't being protected is NK'd, in this case, the nurse.

Is that a bad outcome? I would imagine otherwise it's pretty random whom we lose. Having an ic is nice.

I think it's much better to have an IC tomorrow than today. That's the day where we want information and to definitely catch scum, right? So why have them claim today if they're just going to die at night?

I guess it simplifies who the NK target is, but I think having the IC alive is better.

Going into day 2 minus the nurse, and with all of us knowing for sure who the vigs are seems like a plus.

There is a jailkeeper and a weak doctor, it's not perfect.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 28, 2020, 01:21:16 pm
No exile's fine, but I don't like randomizing what nurse ends up as. Knowing that the nurse isn't dead if they don't flip is good, however.

Oh hey that gives me a good question.

If the nurse turns into a doctor, do they now flip as a doctor, or a nurse?

I guess one variation we could do is to have the nurse claim, and then everyone else targets in a circle. This increases the odds of vigging a carrier n1 while we're at it

Then whoever isn't being protected is NK'd, in this case, the nurse.

Is that a bad outcome? I would imagine otherwise it's pretty random whom we lose. Having an ic is nice.

I think it's much better to have an IC tomorrow than today. That's the day where we want information and to definitely catch scum, right? So why have them claim today if they're just going to die at night?

I guess it simplifies who the NK target is, but I think having the IC alive is better.

Going into day 2 minus the nurse, and with all of us knowing for sure who the vigs are seems like a plus.

There is a jailkeeper and a weak doctor, it's not perfect.

Yeah I wasn't considering the jk, good point.

(I think mix is town)
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 28, 2020, 01:23:54 pm
Likewise.

Vote: Dylan

I prefer exiling D1 than not, since D1's the best day, so I still like my way better, but otherwise yours seems good, and what we should end up going for if the nurse outs themselves D1 most likely.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: mail-mi on August 28, 2020, 01:28:22 pm
No exile's fine, but I don't like randomizing what nurse ends up as. Knowing that the nurse isn't dead if they don't flip is good, however.

Oh hey that gives me a good question.

If the nurse turns into a doctor, do they now flip as a doctor, or a nurse?

They will flip as doctor.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: scolapasta on August 28, 2020, 01:53:35 pm
I looked in the setup, but did not see an answer for this:

When Doctors flip, do they flip as the specific flavor or just generic Doctor?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: Swowl on August 28, 2020, 01:53:47 pm

Swowl came out from one of the many bedrooms, rubbing tired eyes. "What's going on?"


well MM nailed my persona pretty dead on lol
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 28, 2020, 01:57:47 pm
Am I missing something or are you guys missing something?

Only one vig right?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 28, 2020, 01:58:31 pm
suprise.. its me. mis read CPR doctor. got it.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 28, 2020, 01:58:49 pm
Welcome Straw!

Vote: Straw
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 28, 2020, 02:02:06 pm
It's early and I have not had time to think about it... but announcing targets = bad... except no one knows wtf is gonna happen... still mathing out how that would "for sure" solve us who is who. i mean skum obviously lies to convoluted things... and because they have to claim some target. how would we parse who is who in this situation?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: mail-mi on August 28, 2020, 02:09:04 pm
I looked in the setup, but did not see an answer for this:

When Doctors flip, do they flip as the specific flavor or just generic Doctor?

They will flip as generic Doctor.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on August 28, 2020, 02:19:27 pm
Vote Count 1.1

scolapasta (2): scolapasta, jotheonah
Dylan23 (1): MiX
Straw (1): Swowl

No Test (1): cayvie

Not Voting (4): Awaclus, EFHW, Dylan32, Straw

With 9 alive it takes 5 to Test.

Day 1 ends at 11:40 AM FT on Friday, September 4th.

Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Dylan32 on August 28, 2020, 02:39:26 pm
I donít know what to do with my first post without LL here. Vote: MiX I guess. OMGUS a little, but also for making such a strong case on town!me last game that led to shenanigans.  I would vote scola, but Iím never trusting him again, and since his vote seems to suggest he is scum as per Jothís logic, I donít believe it.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 28, 2020, 02:41:46 pm
I donít know what to do with my first post without LL here. Vote: MiX I guess. OMGUS a little, but also for making such a strong case on town!me last game that led to shenanigans.  I would vote scola, but Iím never trusting him again, and since his vote seems to suggest he is scum as per Jothís logic, I donít believe it.

I'll make sure to ask for a PR claim before pushing you next time.

Also can you not make your summary of this game "MiX is scum" again? Because that was almost as anti-town as what I was doing :P
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Dylan32 on August 28, 2020, 02:42:52 pm
I was using my MiX is scum play to get info on others, particularly scola. It was working until you and EFHW started pushing back so hard for a wagon on me lol
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Dylan32 on August 28, 2020, 02:43:38 pm
But yeah, I canít imagine that working two games in a row, so if I push you this game, know it will be totally sincere lol
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Dylan32 on August 28, 2020, 02:44:33 pm
And swowl, letís not end up in a spot where you are asking yourself your sig question again.

Ok, Iím done referring to last game now.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 28, 2020, 02:45:47 pm
I was using my MiX is scum play to get info on others, particularly scola. It was working until you and EFHW started pushing back so hard for a wagon on me lol

It's a bad play.

No, honestly, pushing me as a play is probably the worst way to sort me. Just interact with me when I'm around, which is always, it's much better.

But yeah, I canít imagine that working two games in a row, so if I push you this game, know it will be totally sincere lol

I didn't really work last game...or something. You need to make yourself stand out more than what your read on me is.

And swowl, letís not end up in a spot where you are asking yourself your sig question again.

Ok, Iím done referring to last game now.

Quickhammering is fun! And I still think you should've claimed SoD3.

Awesome, what are your reads thus far?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 28, 2020, 03:30:21 pm
Just saying Hi for the moment. More later!
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 28, 2020, 03:59:49 pm
I fucked up guys. Didn't realize Galz was not in this game...


MiX - Why are you not skum this game?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 28, 2020, 04:01:29 pm
Just saying Hi for the moment. More later!

Hi efhw!

I fucked up guys. Didn't realize Galz was not in this game...


MiX - Why are you not skum this game?

What difference would it make if galzria were in the game
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 28, 2020, 04:17:57 pm
I fucked up guys. Didn't realize Galz was not in this game...


MiX - Why are you not skum this game?

Because Galz isn't town.

I fucked up guys. Didn't realize Galz was not in this game...


MiX - Why are you not skum this game?

What difference would it make if galzria were in the game

Galz's been asking me that particular question every game now, so if he's not here someone else has to, right?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: scolapasta on August 28, 2020, 05:23:21 pm
And swowl, letís not end up in a spot where you are asking yourself your sig question again.

Ok, Iím done referring to last game now.

I'm happy to keep discussing the last game. :)

Also, I've decided I need to start to embrace D1. MiX, teach me the ways...
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 28, 2020, 05:32:49 pm
Re last game, I will try hard not to be so touchy.

It seems like people acting scummy on purpose was a thing for some reason. I don't need to do that, which is good I guess.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 28, 2020, 05:37:42 pm
I agree that exile today seems less important than usual.

N1 is so swingy. What if only 1/2 of us use our doctor power, with assigned targets? This avoids the wake up Day 2 with the game over possibility. I haven't mathed out the chances of that, but as we get information on subsequent days, things get less and less swingy.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 28, 2020, 05:38:07 pm
Hi cayvie!
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 28, 2020, 06:54:06 pm
I agree that exile today seems less important than usual.

N1 is so swingy. What if only 1/2 of us use our doctor power, with assigned targets? This avoids the wake up Day 2 with the game over possibility. I haven't mathed out the chances of that, but as we get information on subsequent days, things get less and less swingy.

I had a similar thought, not exactly but more based around how we can narrow it down as days progress.

The issue I am running into at least... it is the value of a) finding skum vs b) learning what powers we all have.

Because of the skum being in the game bit... if it is actually 50% use and 50% don't use, then it really messes with our chances of finding skum, and also it really allows skum a lot of wiggle room to feed false info (thus making us think we have different powers... thus messing it all up). At least that is what I make of it.

It maybe works if like x-% of people declare target and then x-% of people do not. the people that do not declare targets would then claim after the people that do declare targets? That would at least then keep skum from messing with us... although it would also potentially mess with the results that we are trying to procure.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 28, 2020, 06:59:15 pm
I do agree with you in regards to "things get better as days go on" though.

Maybe the best play here is to go "no plan" until something becomes apparent to 1-2 people and then we take it from there?

or even more so we could try to map out the roles that we realllly don't want to be confused about and just try to figure those out tomorrow.?
that would be to say like...
1. Everyone just does whatever tonight
2. If you targeted someone and they died, claim it.
3. Then everyone else that targeted that player also claims it.

Wait does that actually work out decently? I mean we have no way of knowing how many people target dead-player X and all.. but it would help ID the players in a group of sorts that are either
a) telling the truth and targeted that player
or
b) skum, and the pool would be small (assumption there) which makes it harder for skum to lie
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 28, 2020, 08:02:38 pm
I agree that exile today seems less important than usual.

N1 is so swingy. What if only 1/2 of us use our doctor power, with assigned targets? This avoids the wake up Day 2 with the game over possibility. I haven't mathed out the chances of that, but as we get information on subsequent days, things get less and less swingy.

uh i think wake up game 2 means town wins, yes? why would you be worried about that?

if both vigs target town and the weak doctor dies, and the nightkill goes thru and none of these kills overlap, we wake up with 3 town and 2 carriers.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 28, 2020, 08:05:06 pm
I agree that exile today seems less important than usual.

N1 is so swingy. What if only 1/2 of us use our doctor power, with assigned targets? This avoids the wake up Day 2 with the game over possibility. I haven't mathed out the chances of that, but as we get information on subsequent days, things get less and less swingy.

uh i think wake up Day 2 withe the game over means town wins, yes? why would you be worried about that?

if both vigs target town and the weak doctor dies, and the nightkill goes thru and none of these kills overlap, we wake up with 3 town and 2 carriers.

ebwop
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 28, 2020, 08:27:34 pm
I was thinking about the wake up and scum has won, but if we go through with no exile, I think that will become even more unlikely. 
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 28, 2020, 08:55:59 pm
We want to find out which ones of us kill/protect. I don't think scum can mess with that a whole lot. No redirector or bus driver. They can't protect anyone. They can only nk one person. If we assign targets, they could make it seem that one person can kill who actually can't. They definitely add noise, but not to the point where we get no benefit from trying.

I just had another idea, which I have not thought through yet. What if ... never mind.  I was thinking we could pair up in targeting, like pooled testing, but that's probably too messy. It would take too many nights to get good info. The benefit would be that fewer people would die at night.

Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 28, 2020, 09:03:16 pm
I agree that exile today seems less important than usual.

N1 is so swingy. What if only 1/2 of us use our doctor power, with assigned targets? This avoids the wake up Day 2 with the game over possibility. I haven't mathed out the chances of that, but as we get information on subsequent days, things get less and less swingy.

uh i think wake up game 2 means town wins, yes? why would you be worried about that?

if both vigs target town and the weak doctor dies, and the nightkill goes thru and none of these kills overlap, we wake up with 3 town and 2 carriers.
Right, with no misexile Day 1. So without misexile, scum win is not unlikely,  it's impossible.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Straw on August 28, 2020, 09:07:53 pm
Hi everyone!

Vote: cayvie, where did you find Straw?

Straw, who are you? Tell us everything!
Hi! As Cayvie has said, she found me in champs spec chat (never bet against cayvie BTW). I'm from the mafia board on 17th Shard.

so this appears to be a Dethy variant, and most of these are solvable wins for town. specifically, this seems quite similar to 7-player Dethy (2 mafia, 4 cops of varying skill, 1 vig). However, the difference here is that the vig doesn't know they're a vig, so that solution won't work.

My initial thought here is that everyone should target the people we personally find *scummiest* with our abilities; the most valuable thing a doctor can do is to vig a carrier. and two doctors have a chance of doing that (quack, CPR doc).

thoughts?

other considerations: do we announce our intended targets (with the nurse lying)? that would help us in the case that the weak doctor targets a carrier. my instinct is no, that this helps carriers more than it helps town, but idk.

I agree that we should try to pick scum. However, I think the best plan is everyone picking exactly 1 person, most likely in a single chain (we could use setup order, for example, but I hate that). If everyone picks scumreads, then the chances of vigging scum are severely lowered, as the real docs will also pick them. Besides, if we spread out, we make sure the vig is unapposed, and we can learn from the weak doctor.

With this I suggest we all announce our targets, and try to coordinate a chain of 8 people all targeting each other in a circle, with the 9th person replacing whoever we exile. Exiling doesn't break knowing exactly which doctors there are, since the nurse replaces them.

I have a pretty convoluted plan for picking how we setup the chain, but that's not very important right now.
I'll have to think more about the chain, but it does seem to be a good idea. Hopefully we'd be able to figure out several roles from it.

For exiling today, I'd be in favor. I think not exiling would give us too little information, and D1 is particularly important given how short this game will probably be.

For nurse, anyone have thoughts on them claiming or not? I'd be in favor of them claiming near EoD.

Cayvie, I think there's theoretically a situation where scum wins at the start of D2:
-7 v 2 (start of game)
-6 v 2 (mis-exile villager)
-5 v 2 (mafia kill)
-4 v 2 (weak doc hits mafia)
-3 v 2 (CPR doc hits villager)
-2 v 2 (quack doc hits villager)

Not very likely though, since literally everything would have to go wrong.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 28, 2020, 09:17:35 pm
Jk throws another small wrench into our deductions, since their target won't have an effective action.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 28, 2020, 10:26:56 pm
I'm liking my pairing idea a little better.  Deaths yield more info than with solo targeting, but survivors yield less.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 28, 2020, 10:41:00 pm
4 ways to die: by nk, by quack, as weak targeting scum, by CPR not needed.

4 ways to be protected: by the real dr, weak targets town, CPR needed, jk.

1 way to receive neither protection or attack: by naive.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 29, 2020, 10:05:28 am
vote: scolapasta
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 29, 2020, 10:13:30 am
i don't see any solving in scola's iso, i just see a self-vote and trying to blend in a bit.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 29, 2020, 10:50:55 am
Prod: Awaclus

i don't see any solving in scola's iso, i just see a self-vote and trying to blend in a bit.

Welcome to scola! He doesn't do D1.

Also:

Awesome, what are your reads thus far?

(To Dylan)
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: scolapasta on August 29, 2020, 03:35:23 pm
Sure, but I want to get better at D1!

I think also, especially on D1, I don't post much on weekends.

Anyway, I was obviously kidding about my self vote, interesting that I managed to draw two votes...

Unvote
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: WestCoastDidds on August 29, 2020, 03:41:34 pm
WCD stretches and yawns and considers a nap. On the way out of the living room she stops by and knocks is on Awaclusí door. You know, just to see if heís up or if heís written any new music.

Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 29, 2020, 03:54:44 pm
Sure, but I want to get better at D1!

I think also, especially on D1, I don't post much on weekends.

Anyway, I was obviously kidding about my self vote, interesting that I managed to draw two votes...

Unvote

If you want to play D1, then you'll have to embrace The Reads. Read these 5 pages, see what tips you off, question what you need to, even if it looks weak it's better than nothing, and pushing in general leads to better reads.

Direct interaction's best, if you see someone's online when you're not busy, talk to them directly, ask what they think of certain posts or to clarify their reads. You can also call out to people that aren't there but you think are scummy for some reason or another, just to get more interactions with them.

For an example of questions that I think are good: you just had your first scum game. What do you think is different between scumapasta and scolatowna? What did you see as things you needed to change, and things you needed to stick to to look like your town self? What would you change in your town game if you wanted to hurt your scum game?

Also, what are your reads? Who's scummiest? Unvotes are sad.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: scolapasta on August 29, 2020, 04:05:38 pm
Sure, but I want to get better at D1!

I think also, especially on D1, I don't post much on weekends.

Anyway, I was obviously kidding about my self vote, interesting that I managed to draw two votes...

Unvote

If you want to play D1, then you'll have to embrace The Reads. Read these 5 pages, see what tips you off, question what you need to, even if it looks weak it's better than nothing, and pushing in general leads to better reads.

Direct interaction's best, if you see someone's online when you're not busy, talk to them directly, ask what they think of certain posts or to clarify their reads. You can also call out to people that aren't there but you think are scummy for some reason or another, just to get more interactions with them.

For an example of questions that I think are good: you just had your first scum game. What do you think is different between scumapasta and scolatowna? What did you see as things you needed to change, and things you needed to stick to to look like your town self? What would you change in your town game if you wanted to hurt your scum game?

Also, what are your reads? Who's scummiest? Unvotes are sad.

OK, I'll find some time to read and try the above. Probably tomorrow or Monday...

Unvotes may generally be sad, but c'mon, I was voting myself (mostly so you couldn't!). So really, I've just reverted to the norm of not voting early D1.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Straw on August 29, 2020, 06:21:13 pm
So, let's try to get some actual discussion going.

Re last game, I will try hard not to be so touchy.

It seems like people acting scummy on purpose was a thing for some reason. I don't need to do that, which is good I guess.
First of all, what's the meta on this? I think that last line is saying that they tend to act scummy which I read as suspicious.

Now for actual reads:
-cayvie as mild mafia. Specifically, i find it weird that she forgot about all the non-vig docs when making her plan? I'd think that if she was a doctor she'd be more familiar with the mechanics.
-MiX as village. No major pings from them and seems helpful so far.
-Swowl as null. Haven't seen much from them that made me swing either way.
-EFHW as mild mafia. I found the quote above odd.
-Not enough to say for everyone else so far.

Anyone have thoughts on these reads?

Also, I don't get people jumping on scola. Just seems like typical D1 memeing so far.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 29, 2020, 06:31:30 pm
Re last game, I will try hard not to be so touchy.

It seems like people acting scummy on purpose was a thing for some reason. I don't need to do that, which is good I guess.
First of all, what's the meta on this? I think that last line is saying that they tend to act scummy which I read as suspicious.

I think what you need to know is that "last game" had a bunch of PRs, so I guess EFHW means that they were acting scummy on purpose?

I'd love a clarification from her, at least.

Now for actual reads:
-cayvie as mild mafia. Specifically, i find it weird that she forgot about all the non-vig docs when making her plan? I'd think that if she was a doctor she'd be more familiar with the mechanics.
-MiX as village. No major pings from them and seems helpful so far.
-Swowl as null. Haven't seen much from them that made me swing either way.
-EFHW as mild mafia. I found the quote above odd.
-Not enough to say for everyone else so far.

Anyone have thoughts on these reads?

Also, I don't get people jumping on scola. Just seems like typical D1 memeing so far.

- What are you talking about re: cayvie? Forgetting about JK and weak doctor as not just being doctors is a fair mistake. Do you think scum!cayvie would know less than town!cayvie? What do you know of cayvie in general?
- That's weird, most people scumread me. I'll keep this in mind.
- Is this null read better than the non-reads you give of the remaining 4? If so, why?
- Did anything else from her ping you, or just that?

What do you think of scola? Towny, scummy, nully? Anything?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 29, 2020, 08:08:47 pm
Sure, but I want to get better at D1!

I think also, especially on D1, I don't post much on weekends.

Anyway, I was obviously kidding about my self vote, interesting that I managed to draw two votes...

Unvote

is it interesting?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 29, 2020, 08:10:22 pm
So, let's try to get some actual discussion going.

Re last game, I will try hard not to be so touchy.

It seems like people acting scummy on purpose was a thing for some reason. I don't need to do that, which is good I guess.
First of all, what's the meta on this? I think that last line is saying that they tend to act scummy which I read as suspicious.

Now for actual reads:
-cayvie as mild mafia. Specifically, i find it weird that she forgot about all the non-vig docs when making her plan? I'd think that if she was a doctor she'd be more familiar with the mechanics.
-MiX as village. No major pings from them and seems helpful so far.
-Swowl as null. Haven't seen much from them that made me swing either way.
-EFHW as mild mafia. I found the quote above odd.
-Not enough to say for everyone else so far.

Anyone have thoughts on these reads?

Also, I don't get people jumping on scola. Just seems like typical D1 memeing so far.

why would you expect a doctor to have a better understanding of that?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 29, 2020, 08:14:44 pm
Sure, but I want to get better at D1!

I think also, especially on D1, I don't post much on weekends.

Anyway, I was obviously kidding about my self vote, interesting that I managed to draw two votes...

Unvote

is it interesting?

eh i can be more clear than that.

i didn't vote you for the self-vote alone. i voted you because your engagement at that point consisted of:

a self-vote
a question about mechanics
asking MiX for help

none of these actions scream *curiosity* to me. specifically, asking the mod about mechanics early can often be a way for scum to produce content early that appears helpful, but doesn't actually help advance a town win.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 29, 2020, 08:17:14 pm
also: MiX, i'm so happy you're not a third party this game XD
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 29, 2020, 08:17:38 pm
Mr. MiX help the slow kid out here.

I wanna say I like the plan you are laying out? So, this isn't me being a pain.. I mean it is, but just trying to poke holes because the woopsie from the last game still kind of fresh in my head...

So like... 1 targets 2, 2 targets 3, etc etc.... 9 targets 1. Do I have that correct?

Assuming I do, here are the issues I have that maybe you can explain what the plan is.

Obviously #1 is the fact that there are no investigation roles, so there is no way to keep skum honest here. The fact is that 2/9 people in the chain will absolutely be inclined to mess with the assigned order, which in hand messes with our results.

I think the issue I am having wrapping my head around this one is that we are GTD to have at least the following deaths, assuming everyone (including skum) targets their assigned player:

CPR Doctor - GTD to kill their target
Quack Doctor - GTD to kill their target
Skum Kill - GTD to kill their target
gap
Weak Doctor - Dies if they are targeting skum

OK, so assuming a mis lynch today, and the weak doctor does not die... what happens and what do we learn?

1. Where would we be?
- We go from Day 1 of 9 alive to a Day 2 start of 5 alive. So just right there, it is some where between a) super lucky insta town win, b) 1 v 4 and c) 2 v 3. So we need to be damn sure this is a +EV plan vs "random selection" because 2 v 3 is the heavy favorite there. Or I guess not heavy, but still favorite.

2. What do we learn?
- K. Plan for the worst. Let's say we wake up 2 v 3, and players 3, 6, and 9 are dead. Who could those players be?
a) 1/ 3 of 2, 5, or 8 could be skum and just carried the kill out where they should for camo
b) so then 2/3 COULD be town killing doctors, assuming all town flips.
c) but also skum could get lucky and choose a non-assigned target, in which case all 3/3 of those players could actually be town. 

That does not sound awesome. Given there is a shit ton of other ways it could pan out, but like... that would suck.

Then OTOH we have the situation of trying to deduce the roles of players that targeted people who woke up alive. That would be players 1, 4, 7. 1/3 of those players would have to be skum and 2/3 would have to be town. That isn't bad... but we don't have time to like gamble that out at that point. We wouldn't know who is the weak doc, niave doc, and/or the skum... so there would be no way to set up a situation to protect the right people and kill the right people based on pools. We would have to isolate it to like... 2 people.... or more specifically I guess 2 people in pools of 1/3... which I will give you is better than standard.. but still.

And then again, there are like a ton of other ways it could pan out.

So I guess my question is... what is the next step to your plan here? What am I not seeing?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Straw on August 29, 2020, 08:29:52 pm
- What are you talking about re: cayvie? Forgetting about JK and weak doctor as not just being doctors is a fair mistake. Do you think scum!cayvie would know less than town!cayvie? What do you know of cayvie in general?
why would you expect a doctor to have a better understanding of that?
I typically think that someone who has a certain role would have a better understanding of that role. It could just be a difference in play style, but I thought it was worth noting.

- That's weird, most people scumread me. I'll keep this in mind.
- Is this null read better than the non-reads you give of the remaining 4? If so, why?
- Did anything else from her ping you, or just that?

What do you think of scola? Towny, scummy, nully? Anything?
The null read is kind of weird tbh. They had posted enough stuff that I thought it was important to take a look at their posts, but I didn't see much AI stuff. Most of their content has been pretty mechanical so far.

I have scola as null. They've mainly just had some SoD memeing into D1 meta discussion. I don't think there's anything there that indicates either way.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 29, 2020, 08:53:45 pm
you know what mix... ignore me. in my scenario with the three players following the flipped dead town doctors all being alive still... I see my error. we would know that those 3 players were some variation of non-killing doctors... so then based off that we know they would have to be some combo of  Doc, Naive Doc, Paranoid Doc, and/or Weak Doc. That would leave the only renaming docs possible CPR, Quack, and ofc the 1/4 that it wasn't of the 3 flips... and the nurse.

Now one of them would of assumedly been mis lynched today. but still those would be the combos. So the killing roles would in fact know they were killing roles and the proc roles would know they were proc roles.

That makes more sense. Got it. I am in for this plan.

Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 29, 2020, 08:55:22 pm
there is the low probability downside of nurse coming after skum or skum coming after skum ofc.

and then the weak doc part.

but all in all, I think I like it.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 29, 2020, 09:03:13 pm
Straw - this game aside... what is your general "skummy vs not skummy" take on players that discuss set up Day 1?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 29, 2020, 09:04:08 pm

Also, I don't get people jumping on scola. Just seems like typical D1 memeing so far.

Site meta. He MVPd his first ever skum game in the game we just concluded.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Straw on August 29, 2020, 09:56:30 pm
Straw - this game aside... what is your general "skummy vs not skummy" take on players that discuss set up Day 1?
I'd say it heavily depends on the setup and how important mechanics are. I generally don't think it's much of a tell either way, unless it's taking up a huge portion of someone's posts. Essentially, the context is more important than just the fact that they were discussing it, if that makes any sense.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 29, 2020, 10:56:07 pm
Straw - this game aside... what is your general "skummy vs not skummy" take on players that discuss set up Day 1?
I'd say it heavily depends on the setup and how important mechanics are. I generally don't think it's much of a tell either way, unless it's taking up a huge portion of someone's posts. Essentially, the context is more important than just the fact that they were discussing it, if that makes any sense.

groovy bears. makes sense to me.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 29, 2020, 11:06:19 pm
What would be the plan if we successfully binked skum Day 1? Would we still carry out the plan?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 29, 2020, 11:26:30 pm
So, let's try to get some actual discussion going.

Re last game, I will try hard not to be so touchy.

It seems like people acting scummy on purpose was a thing for some reason. I don't need to do that, which is good I guess.
First of all, what's the meta on this? I think that last line is saying that they tend to act scummy which I read as suspicious.

Now for actual reads:
-cayvie as mild mafia. Specifically, i find it weird that she forgot about all the non-vig docs when making her plan? I'd think that if she was a doctor she'd be more familiar with the mechanics.
-MiX as village. No major pings from them and seems helpful so far.
-Swowl as null. Haven't seen much from them that made me swing either way.
-EFHW as mild mafia. I found the quote above odd.
-Not enough to say for everyone else so far.

Anyone have thoughts on these reads?

Also, I don't get people jumping on scola. Just seems like typical D1 memeing so far.

I was referring to being read as scummy in the last game, when I definitely was not trying to be. So /rueful and /a bit sarcastic.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 29, 2020, 11:34:08 pm
I'm spending too much time on the puzzle aspect of things.

prod: joth.

@MiX, why did you prod Awaclus and not joth?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: jotheonah on August 29, 2020, 11:45:23 pm
Hi! Sorry I suck. Here now, reading/rereading.

I have no thoughts on the plan/setup talk, Iíll do whatever everyone agrees on. I still think Scola is a fine place to rest my vote. Itís not because he MVPd that other game though, I try to only play the current game, not the last one.

More tomorrow.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 29, 2020, 11:47:24 pm
I'm spending too much time on the puzzle aspect of things.

prod: joth.

@MiX, why did you prod Awaclus and not joth?

presumably because joth had at least posted in RVS, unlike Awaclus
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 29, 2020, 11:47:35 pm
Hey. I am taking a half day at work today, so I'll be able to mafia a lot in an hour or two.

in the meantime,

Vote: scolapasta

He's uniquely positioned to know whether or not he's scum and he appears to think that he is based on his use of his vote. So I'm happy to sheep him.

Whoops, missed this. MiX made prod request before joth was eligible. Guess he found something more fun to do with his time off. scola vote is certainly well reasoned. RVS, but logical.

PPE: a wild joth appears!
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 30, 2020, 12:00:59 am
Hi! Sorry I suck. Here now, reading/rereading.

I have no thoughts on the plan/setup talk, Iíll do whatever everyone agrees on. I still think Scola is a fine place to rest my vote. Itís not because he MVPd that other game though, I try to only play the current game, not the last one.

More tomorrow.

Why scola for real (vs RVS)?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 30, 2020, 12:04:31 am
first blush reads

town: MiX
townie-ish: dylan32, EFHW, Swowl, jotheonah
suspicious: scola, straw
carriers: ??

post pls: Awaclus
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Awaclus on August 30, 2020, 03:53:46 am
Sorry, I had refresher training. Vote: EFHW
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 30, 2020, 05:44:47 am
you know what mix... ignore me. in my scenario with the three players following the flipped dead town doctors all being alive still... I see my error. we would know that those 3 players were some variation of non-killing doctors... so then based off that we know they would have to be some combo of  Doc, Naive Doc, Paranoid Doc, and/or Weak Doc. That would leave the only renaming docs possible CPR, Quack, and ofc the 1/4 that it wasn't of the 3 flips... and the nurse.

Now one of them would of assumedly been mis lynched today. but still those would be the combos. So the killing roles would in fact know they were killing roles and the proc roles would know they were proc roles.

That makes more sense. Got it. I am in for this plan.

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying, but you're basically right. Some deaths happen, some things are learned, I think in the 3/2 alive D2 scenario we almost always catch scum, and then we still have at least 1 vig alive.

I'd need to do some examples to see if there's any problems, but for me it's the standard way of dealing with this setup.

What would be the plan if we successfully binked skum Day 1? Would we still carry out the plan?

The plan would definitely be carried out, the information we get is much better when there's only 1 person that can lie and NK (for the JK).

I'm spending too much time on the puzzle aspect of things.

prod: joth.

@MiX, why did you prod Awaclus and not joth?

presumably because joth had at least posted in RVS, unlike Awaclus

Yes, this, I don't know why you prodded joth, EFHW.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 30, 2020, 09:41:10 am
I said before, I missed his entry post. Or are you joking because of my question to you?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 30, 2020, 09:44:09 am
I had a whole MiX-Awaclus partner speculation  going. Or maybe MiX-joth.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 30, 2020, 09:45:56 am
Sorry, I had refresher training. Vote: EFHW

what is refresher training?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 30, 2020, 10:13:56 am
I said before, I missed his entry post. Or are you joking because of my question to you?

Hmm...I guess this makes sense.

I had a whole MiX-Awaclus partner speculation  going. Or maybe MiX-joth.

Which was it then?

Dylan can you come back, I miss you.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 30, 2020, 10:19:27 am
what was your plan for deciding the chain order, mix? or is it still too early to say
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 30, 2020, 10:36:40 am
what was your plan for deciding the chain order, mix? or is it still too early to say

I'd give it 1 more day, it's reads-based so it's important everyone has a top scumread and a top townread.

Do you still think scola's scum?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 30, 2020, 10:37:03 am
first blush reads

town: MiX
townie-ish: dylan32, EFHW, Swowl, jotheonah
suspicious: scola, straw
carriers: ??

post pls: Awaclus

Oh right you did this, ignore me.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 30, 2020, 01:07:21 pm
you know what mix... ignore me. in my scenario with the three players following the flipped dead town doctors all being alive still... I see my error. we would know that those 3 players were some variation of non-killing doctors... so then based off that we know they would have to be some combo of  Doc, Naive Doc, Paranoid Doc, and/or Weak Doc. That would leave the only renaming docs possible CPR, Quack, and ofc the 1/4 that it wasn't of the 3 flips... and the nurse.

Now one of them would of assumedly been mis lynched today. but still those would be the combos. So the killing roles would in fact know they were killing roles and the proc roles would know they were proc roles.

That makes more sense. Got it. I am in for this plan.

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying, but you're basically right. Some deaths happen, some things are learned, I think in the 3/2 alive D2 scenario we almost always catch scum, and then we still have at least 1 vig alive.

I'd need to do some examples to see if there's any problems, but for me it's the standard way of dealing with this setup.

What would be the plan if we successfully binked skum Day 1? Would we still carry out the plan?

The plan would definitely be carried out, the information we get is much better when there's only 1 person that can lie and NK (for the JK).


Yeah, I rando generated roles and used the sign up order and I mean it is only one run through, but we found skum A, identified an IC (the JK), and narrowed skum B down to 1/3 (where the other 2 were the vigs). Which would be a fantastic run out obviously.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 30, 2020, 01:17:35 pm
In that setup, the vigs can triangulate shooting each other, so scum always dies.

See? The plan's great in theory. It can just win us the game.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Dylan32 on August 30, 2020, 01:48:21 pm
I said before, I missed his entry post. Or are you joking because of my question to you?

Hmm...I guess this makes sense.

I had a whole MiX-Awaclus partner speculation  going. Or maybe MiX-joth.

Which was it then?

Dylan can you come back, I miss you.

Sorry man. Sister had surgery this weekend, so Iíve been pretty preoccupied. It feels good to be missed though lol. Iíll spend more time thinking and rereading here in a bit and get back to you. Not dodging your earlier question, just havenít been in the headspace to answer for a bit.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 30, 2020, 03:39:33 pm
In that setup, the vigs can triangulate shooting each other, so scum always dies.

See? The plan's great in theory. It can just win us the game.

Yeah i mean that was my point. At least in that set up we win every time.
Tried thinking about it in terms of ďbad outcomesĒ, of which there are some. But overall it sounds good.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 30, 2020, 04:46:40 pm
I said before, I missed his entry post. Or are you joking because of my question to you?

Hmm...I guess this makes sense.

I had a whole MiX-Awaclus partner speculation  going. Or maybe MiX-joth.

Which was it then?

Dylan can you come back, I miss you.

Sorry man. Sister had surgery this weekend, so Iíve been pretty preoccupied. It feels good to be missed though lol. Iíll spend more time thinking and rereading here in a bit and get back to you. Not dodging your earlier question, just havenít been in the headspace to answer for a bit.

all good hopefully?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 31, 2020, 01:37:30 am
So I have nothing better to do, and I have been thinking about the mix plan more. I don't wanna really go into why, in case we do actually do it... but there are def some substantial holes. That being said, IDK if holes is less or greater than random... but I am def more skeptical of it now than I was before.

To be clear, no knocks on MiX for the idea. I just don't have the faith in it that I originally did.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 31, 2020, 07:10:57 am
So I have nothing better to do, and I have been thinking about the mix plan more. I don't wanna really go into why, in case we do actually do it... but there are def some substantial holes. That being said, IDK if holes is less or greater than random... but I am def more skeptical of it now than I was before.

To be clear, no knocks on MiX for the idea. I just don't have the faith in it that I originally did.

I can see this, I was doing some theorizing yesterday and in some scenarios you learn very little. Hopefully it's something that can be compounded onto future days of information to learn more.


Okay, now time for the Chain Formation Plan:

Step 1: Pick a consensus town, because we're doing this kinda like popcorn. From what I saw of the thread, I guess I'm the most townread individual here? I'd love Dylan to come back with what he thinks of me, but there's been 2 readlists and I'm top town there, so... I'd nominate cayvie for this if you don't want me to do it.

Step 2: That player picks their scummiest player to be their doc target.

Step 3: The same player picks whoever the player they're targeting is then going to target, which should be their top townread that hasn't been picked yet. This way, if the person picking is A, they would target B, their scumread, and B would target C, which is A's townread, and thus the chain reads A -> B -> C.

Step 4: The player that is the top townread (so, C) repeats steps 2 and 3.

This results in an 8 player chain, as the fourth person picks someone to target, and said target has to doc the first person in the chain. The ninth person, the one left out, replaces whoever's exiled, in case that happens, or places itself in between the 8th and 1st person in the chain, if there's no exile.


Does this make sense? Everyone understand that? I can't explain things very well so this is most likely a mess.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 31, 2020, 07:14:54 am
To summarize, the chain should look like this:

A -> A's scumread -> A's townread (B) -> B's scumread -> B's townread (C) -> C's scumread -> C's townread (D) -> D's scumread -> A

Which is an 8 person chain, with whoever's left out replacing who's exiled.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 31, 2020, 08:00:30 am
I can't say I like this plan. It's a good idea to try to include some scumhunting, but it's only A, B, and C's scumhunting,  and you are proposing yourself for A! I don't have a better plan atm, but I'm not seeing the benefits of this one.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 31, 2020, 08:03:58 am
I can't say I like this plan. It's a good idea to try to include some scumhunting, but it's only A, B, and C's scumhunting,  and you are proposing yourself for A! I don't have a better plan atm, but I'm not seeing the benefits of this one.

I'd rather not propose myself, but someone needs to start the chain.

Who's your top townread? Who's your top scumread?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 31, 2020, 08:10:44 am
Wait, this plan is equivalent to random. Everyone gets targeted by someone else.  It doesn't matter who targets who.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 31, 2020, 08:12:38 am
Wait, this plan is equivalent to random. Everyone gets targeted by someone else.  It doesn't matter who targets who.

Well, almost, but this plan minimizes scum picking scum. We want to maximize vigs picking scum, so this is better than random.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 31, 2020, 08:34:19 am
I don't think it is better than random given the usual accuracy of day 1 scumhunting. One of A,B,C could easily be scum. What it does do is force A, B, and C to state specific reads. Is that beneficial to town? Isn't that the kind of information scum like to have? If they were scum, that could be beneficial, but they are being chosen because they are being seen as towny.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 31, 2020, 08:35:32 am
I can't say I like this plan. It's a good idea to try to include some scumhunting, but it's only A, B, and C's scumhunting,  and you are proposing yourself for A! I don't have a better plan atm, but I'm not seeing the benefits of this one.

I'd rather not propose myself, but someone needs to start the chain.

Who's your top townread? Who's your top scumread?
I don't want to answer this question. It doesn't feel right.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 31, 2020, 08:40:33 am
I don't think it is better than random given the usual accuracy of day 1 scumhunting. One of A,B,C could easily be scum. What it does do is force A, B, and C to state specific reads. Is that beneficial to town? Isn't that the kind of information scum like to have? If they were scum, that could be beneficial, but they are being chosen because they are being seen as towny.

Day 1 scumreading is very accurate. Day 1 exiling isn't, because scum gets in the way of that. I'd refer to a previous game if Straw wasn't here.

Giving reads is fine, everyone wants to say their top scumread anyway, and just 1 townread barely matters. Also, if scum wants to target scum, they also have to bus a little, which helps town.

It's definitely better than no plan, and it seems like the best "random" chain you can make, outside setup order.

I can't say I like this plan. It's a good idea to try to include some scumhunting, but it's only A, B, and C's scumhunting,  and you are proposing yourself for A! I don't have a better plan atm, but I'm not seeing the benefits of this one.

I'd rather not propose myself, but someone needs to start the chain.

Who's your top townread? Who's your top scumread?
I don't want to answer this question. It doesn't feel right.

Do you not have a scumread?

Vote: EFHW
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on August 31, 2020, 11:01:28 am
How do you know Day 1 scumreading is very accurate? I haven't noticed that. Space and I were going to try to do a study on it, but we never did.

You are making a few assumptions in voting me. 1. that I have no scumreads. 2. that not having scumreads this early is a scumtell. 3. that not doing what you command is scummy.

Your plan is not better than random. But it's not necessarily worse. If A, B and C are all fine with it, then I don't really care. I liked trying to puzzle out my pairs plan, but I think it's not better than random, either.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 31, 2020, 11:13:21 am
How do you know Day 1 scumreading is very accurate? I haven't noticed that. Space and I were going to try to do a study on it, but we never did.

You are making a few assumptions in voting me. 1. that I have no scumreads. 2. that not having scumreads this early is a scumtell. 3. that not doing what you command is scummy.

Your plan is not better than random. But it's not necessarily worse. If A, B and C are all fine with it, then I don't really care. I liked trying to puzzle out my pairs plan, but I think it's not better than random, either.

No, I can't demonstrate day 1 scumreading is X% accurate. That number isn't even important. What matters is that it's accurate enough for my plan to be better than random. It's impossible to verify this claim with evidence, so why use it at all?

I'm making the assumption that you don't want to say what your scumread is. But fine, I guess I was assuming 2. as well.

Vote: Dylan
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: jotheonah on August 31, 2020, 11:16:39 am
Hi! Sorry I suck. Here now, reading/rereading.

I have no thoughts on the plan/setup talk, Iíll do whatever everyone agrees on. I still think Scola is a fine place to rest my vote. Itís not because he MVPd that other game though, I try to only play the current game, not the last one.

More tomorrow.

Why scola for real (vs RVS)?

It has to do with how he responded to the votes on him. Like he was worried but trying to look not worried. Let me find and quote the part that pinged me.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: jotheonah on August 31, 2020, 11:18:43 am
Sure, but I want to get better at D1!

I think also, especially on D1, I don't post much on weekends.

Anyway, I was obviously kidding about my self vote, interesting that I managed to draw two votes...

Unvote

I guess it was this one. After ignoring my vote completely, when cayvie votes for him it's sort of this meek 'haha guyz I was kidding. how bout those votes'

idk
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 31, 2020, 11:21:56 am
Sure, but I want to get better at D1!

I think also, especially on D1, I don't post much on weekends.

Anyway, I was obviously kidding about my self vote, interesting that I managed to draw two votes...

Unvote

I guess it was this one. After ignoring my vote completely, when cayvie votes for him it's sort of this meek 'haha guyz I was kidding. how bout those votes'

idk

What other reaction did you expect from scola?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: jotheonah on August 31, 2020, 12:21:30 pm
Well either of the other directions -- actually not being worried or being openly worried about the votes on him. That post just read as a calculated amount of worried. It's a day one gut read, not an ironclad case. I'm just explaining because EFHW asked.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 31, 2020, 01:05:36 pm
if d1 scumreading means anything, i fairly confidently don't think EFHW is a carrier this game. and i have a fairly accurate record of catching her as scum.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: scolapasta on August 31, 2020, 01:20:11 pm
Well either of the other directions -- actually not being worried or being openly worried about the votes on him. That post just read as a calculated amount of worried. It's a day one gut read, not an ironclad case. I'm just explaining because EFHW asked.

This is so weak as to be suspicious. Voting for me was clearly as a joke due to last game. I don't really think anyone who's town would actually think my self vote for myself being anything but NAI. So if that's the only reason you're voting for me, yeah, that's a little scummy.

Still planning on finding time to think of suggested plan. Generally, need to decide if I like the idea. If it's good, then it seems to me that scum is in a bad spot, and needs to find ways to discredit the plan (e.g. swowl). If it's bad, well, then it could be scum looking to suggest something that sounds useful, but doesn't actually help, i.e. could have equal chance to help / hinder based on if A,B,C are scum.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 31, 2020, 01:26:17 pm
Well either of the other directions -- actually not being worried or being openly worried about the votes on him. That post just read as a calculated amount of worried. It's a day one gut read, not an ironclad case. I'm just explaining because EFHW asked.

This is so weak as to be suspicious. Voting for me was clearly as a joke due to last game. I don't really think anyone who's town would actually think my self vote for myself being anything but NAI. So if that's the only reason you're voting for me, yeah, that's a little scummy.

Still planning on finding time to think of suggested plan. Generally, need to decide if I like the idea. If it's good, then it seems to me that scum is in a bad spot, and needs to find ways to discredit the plan (e.g. swowl). If it's bad, well, then it could be scum looking to suggest something that sounds useful, but doesn't actually help, i.e. could have equal chance to help / hinder based on if A,B,C are scum.

hey pasta! what are your reads on folks rn?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: scolapasta on August 31, 2020, 01:54:51 pm
Probably town reading you the most, then MiX, maybe scum to joth and WFHW and swow?. but that's if I don't decide the plans are flawed.

Not sure why, but I wonder if a plan where instead of 1 cycle, we have 3 small cycles:
A targets B targets C targets A
D targets E targets F targets D
G targets H targets I targets G

(and whichever group gets the exile, simplifies to a 2 person cycle)

Possible not different at all, but my gut seems to think there might be something there.

Also, sad, no one commented on the Spies Like Us video - there's even 9 total "doctors", with two who are not actually doctors!
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: jotheonah on August 31, 2020, 01:56:19 pm
I did think the video was very funny.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 31, 2020, 02:00:02 pm
Probably town reading you the most, then MiX, maybe scum to joth and WFHW and swow?. but that's if I don't decide the plans are flawed.

Not sure why, but I wonder if a plan where instead of 1 cycle, we have 3 small cycles:
A targets B targets C targets A
D targets E targets F targets D
G targets H targets I targets G

(and whichever group gets the exile, simplifies to a 2 person cycle)

Possible not different at all, but my gut seems to think there might be something there.

Also, sad, no one commented on the Spies Like Us video - there's even 9 total "doctors", with two who are not actually doctors!

2 people cycles are weird. We definitely don't want scum to pick each other, then we just vig a bunch of town. Otherwise, there's probably nothing wrong with 3 triangles.

I did think the video was very funny.

Can confirm, it was indeed funny.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: jotheonah on August 31, 2020, 02:15:17 pm
I enjoy analyzing night actions once we have info, but I don't enjoy this plan stuff. My default positioning is that any plan is bad because it's manipulatable by scum. At the same time, everyone just doctoring their town reads, or their scum reads, seems bad also. And not using our powers at all also seems bad. So I guess I'm down to try a plan.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 31, 2020, 02:43:27 pm
The triangle has merit. However it has the same potential flaw the chain has. Only worse should it end up happening.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 31, 2020, 02:58:52 pm
The triangle has merit. However it has the same potential flaw the chain has. Only worse should it end up happening.

does the chain have any flaw that random targeting doesn't?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 31, 2020, 03:33:09 pm
The triangle has merit. However it has the same potential flaw the chain has. Only worse should it end up happening.

does the chain have any flaw that random targeting doesn't?

Yes. Or technically yes. But that thing is the thing i am talking about
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: scolapasta on August 31, 2020, 03:49:52 pm
The triangle has merit. However it has the same potential flaw the chain has. Only worse should it end up happening.

does the chain have any flaw that random targeting doesn't?

Yes. Or technically yes. But that thing is the thing i am talking about

What's the reason for not revealing the flaw?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 31, 2020, 04:09:39 pm
ok im feelin pretty good about swowl too.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 31, 2020, 04:11:33 pm
Probably town reading you the most, then MiX, maybe scum to joth and WFHW and swow?. but that's if I don't decide the plans are flawed.

can you talk a little more about how you scumread those 3 people? joth, EFHW, and especially swowl?

also about how your opinion on the trustworthiness of the plans will affect your reads on different players
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 31, 2020, 04:12:45 pm
The triangle has merit. However it has the same potential flaw the chain has. Only worse should it end up happening.

does the chain have any flaw that random targeting doesn't?

Yes. Or technically yes. But that thing is the thing i am talking about

What's the reason for not revealing the flaw?

well... you have looked at it.
Mix has looked at it.
Others have looked at it.

I see it. Not claiming to be better at the maths (because I 100% am not), but no one has brought it up. So, I don't think it is a reach to say that skum at least might miss it. Kinda doubtful I suppose, it isn't exactly "super secret" or anything. I just think that revealing tomorrow (after the plan) would be best. Even if they NK me, I have faith ya'll will get there without me telling you anyways.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 31, 2020, 04:23:18 pm
i would say that i think any flaw in the chain is balanced out by the benefit of: the only kills that carriers know to be safe are ones that they are assigned to in the chain. so either carriers risk outing one of their own, or risk having the kill blocked.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 31, 2020, 04:55:07 pm
To summarize, the chain should look like this:
A -> A's scumread -> A's townread (B) -> B's scumread -> B's townread (C) -> C's scumread -> C's townread (D) -> D's scumread -> A
Which is an 8 person chain, with whoever's left out replacing who's exiled.

So... we have a 2/9, or 22% chance, of picking skum to be the person that starts the chain. That would be like the one obvious horrible downside. IDK exactly why I guess, probably they pick their partner... but any which way, giving skum the choice is not good.

Weighing it against random though... I guess it is not horrible based on chance.

Any given doctor, has a 2/6 chance of being a killing doctor. That is 33%.
Any given doctor, has a 2/7 chance at targeting skum tonight. That is 28%.
So... and this is why I suck at math bc I have no clue if this is right or not... but that is a 9% chance if a doctor randomly chose a target, for them to TARGET skum.
Then you would have to factor in that person being doctored and things like that. So, let's just say random chance of a doctor being a killing doctor and randomly selecting a target, and that target is skum, and they actually kill them... is less than 9%.

Whereas, assuming we do not elect Skum to be the picker of course, it is still every doc has a 33% chance of being a doc, and every Doc Target has a 28% chance of being skum... so it is exactly 9% chance (opposed to less than 9% chance) if we follow the chain idea.

And then yeah, IDK what the chances in random are for "random good doctor preventing a town death is" because everything is so potentially open in random... but it is a small thing.

meh, even with the downside... I guess the plan still has it's merits.



Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 31, 2020, 04:57:57 pm
i would say that i think any flaw in the chain is balanced out by the benefit of: the only kills that carriers know to be safe are ones that they are assigned to in the chain. so either carriers risk outing one of their own, or risk having the kill blocked.

yeah but math out how much that re-assigned kill choice messes with our ability to deduce who is who?
I mean, in a game that started with less killing potential or something and we had more days after tomorrow to figure it out, sure. It all is gravy. But assuming we mislynch today, and there are three deaths tomorrow... if we factor in that any given dead player did not neccissarily have to be killed from the person behind them in the order.... that REALLY messes with the deductive logic.

you got it btw.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 31, 2020, 05:05:33 pm
The triangle has merit. However it has the same potential flaw the chain has. Only worse should it end up happening.

does the chain have any flaw that random targeting doesn't?

Yes. Or technically yes. But that thing is the thing i am talking about

Your flaw is always in the setup regardless of chain. Except if everyone picks scum, then the chances of scum dying are INCREDIBLY low, because multiple people will pick them. Whereas the chances of town being protected plummet, so scum can NK whoever they want, basically.

I don't really see it as a flaw of my plan, but rather how the setup works in general.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 31, 2020, 05:13:07 pm
the other benefit i see to mix's specific ordering plan, is that even if we do mess up and pick a wolf to start the chain, the wolf has to declare the other wolf their top scumread in order to be adjacent.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 31, 2020, 05:15:15 pm
The triangle has merit. However it has the same potential flaw the chain has. Only worse should it end up happening.

does the chain have any flaw that random targeting doesn't?

Yes. Or technically yes. But that thing is the thing i am talking about

Your flaw is always in the setup regardless of chain. Except if everyone picks scum, then the chances of scum dying are INCREDIBLY low, because multiple people will pick them. Whereas the chances of town being protected plummet, so scum can NK whoever they want, basically.

I don't really see it as a flaw of my plan, but rather how the setup works in general.

hey man in case it is not clear - I am really fenced about this, and I do not think you have a "bad plan". Especially vs random, which is the point I was trying to make previous to the quoted post. If the flaw is in the set up then fine, ok. But your plan was made off the set up, so anything that could happen, given your plan, even if it is the set up that generated the issue, is kinda at fault of the plan as well. If that makes sense.

To be suppppperrr clear - I am not a diehard for it, but I am in support of the plan vs random. That is how my post should of read.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 31, 2020, 05:15:37 pm
the other benefit i see to mix's specific ordering plan, is that even if we do mess up and pick a wolf to start the chain, the wolf has to declare the other wolf their top scumread in order to be adjacent.

that is a fair upside.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 31, 2020, 05:22:49 pm
The triangle has merit. However it has the same potential flaw the chain has. Only worse should it end up happening.

does the chain have any flaw that random targeting doesn't?

Yes. Or technically yes. But that thing is the thing i am talking about

Your flaw is always in the setup regardless of chain. Except if everyone picks scum, then the chances of scum dying are INCREDIBLY low, because multiple people will pick them. Whereas the chances of town being protected plummet, so scum can NK whoever they want, basically.

I don't really see it as a flaw of my plan, but rather how the setup works in general.

hey man in case it is not clear - I am really fenced about this, and I do not think you have a "bad plan". Especially vs random, which is the point I was trying to make previous to the quoted post. If the flaw is in the set up then fine, ok. But your plan was made off the set up, so anything that could happen, given your plan, even if it is the set up that generated the issue, is kinda at fault of the plan as well. If that makes sense.

To be suppppperrr clear - I am not a diehard for it, but I am in support of the plan vs random. That is how my post should of read.

I don't really understand. You see flaws to the plan, but you're fine with it? Maybe the flaws are just inherent and my plan is the best plan anyway. There's bound to be flaws in any plan anyway.

the other benefit i see to mix's specific ordering plan, is that even if we do mess up and pick a wolf to start the chain, the wolf has to declare the other wolf their top scumread in order to be adjacent.

that is a fair upside.

And one I pointed out earlier :P

I think. I meant to anyway.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 31, 2020, 05:32:47 pm
yes miX - that.... I think that your plan is equal in the sense that we find skum less, specifically tomorrow, and while there is the downside of potentially being put out tomorrow, so is there with random... but the clear upside is at least some structured deduction of who can do what. Which, if we get just a little lucky, should be enough.

I always just start looking at it from the worst possible case.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 31, 2020, 05:37:08 pm
yes miX - that.... I think that your plan is equal in the sense that we find skum less, specifically tomorrow, and while there is the downside of potentially being put out tomorrow, so is there with random... but the clear upside is at least some structured deduction of who can do what. Which, if we get just a little lucky, should be enough.

I always just start looking at it from the worst possible case.

Less than what?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 31, 2020, 05:52:48 pm
yes miX - that.... I think that your plan is equal in the sense that we find skum less, specifically tomorrow, and while there is the downside of potentially being put out tomorrow, so is there with random... but the clear upside is at least some structured deduction of who can do what. Which, if we get just a little lucky, should be enough.

I always just start looking at it from the worst possible case.

Less than what?

less than random. based on potential manipulation.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on August 31, 2020, 05:57:16 pm
yes miX - that.... I think that your plan is equal in the sense that we find skum less, specifically tomorrow, and while there is the downside of potentially being put out tomorrow, so is there with random... but the clear upside is at least some structured deduction of who can do what. Which, if we get just a little lucky, should be enough.

I always just start looking at it from the worst possible case.

Less than what?

less than random. based on potential manipulation.

Random what? Independent targeting, or a random chain?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 31, 2020, 07:42:56 pm
yes miX - that.... I think that your plan is equal in the sense that we find skum less, specifically tomorrow, and while there is the downside of potentially being put out tomorrow, so is there with random... but the clear upside is at least some structured deduction of who can do what. Which, if we get just a little lucky, should be enough.

I always just start looking at it from the worst possible case.

Less than what?

less than random. based on potential manipulation.

Random what? Independent targeting, or a random chain?

sorry - random actions. like random in this sense equals "no plan at all"
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 31, 2020, 10:11:58 pm
Where did Straw go?
I liked Straw. I wanna know what Straw thinks about shit.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on August 31, 2020, 11:09:33 pm
Vote Count 1.2

scolapasta (2): jotheonah, cayvie
Dylan23 (1): MiX
Straw (1): Swowl
MiX (1): Dylan32
EFHW (1): Awaclus

Not Voting (3): EFHW, Straw, scolapasta

With 9 alive it takes 5 to Test.

Day 1 ends at 11:40 AM FT on Friday, September 4th.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on August 31, 2020, 11:19:34 pm
Where did Straw go?
I liked Straw. I wanna know what Straw thinks about shit.

same tbh
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Dylan32 on August 31, 2020, 11:48:00 pm
Ok, I think I'm caught up. Definitely think we should coordinate rather than pure random.  One thing I thought, what if instead of the two triangles and a pair, we don't exile today so that we have 3 triangle chains, and base it on sign up order instead of giving scum the chance to organize themselves into the same group or whatever? There would obviously still be a chance they would be, but it's at least purely random at that point instead of being somewhat more likely than random if we let them influence it.

I'm not thinking MiX is scum so far. Could be an over correction on my part, but I think his logic has been at least pro-town so far, so I'm ok with the operating assumption that he's town for now. I have a gut town read on both swowl and cayvie, but looking at that list I'm thinking I might just be townreading high recent activity.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Dylan32 on August 31, 2020, 11:48:54 pm
I said before, I missed his entry post. Or are you joking because of my question to you?

Hmm...I guess this makes sense.

I had a whole MiX-Awaclus partner speculation  going. Or maybe MiX-joth.

Which was it then?

Dylan can you come back, I miss you.

Sorry man. Sister had surgery this weekend, so Iíve been pretty preoccupied. It feels good to be missed though lol. Iíll spend more time thinking and rereading here in a bit and get back to you. Not dodging your earlier question, just havenít been in the headspace to answer for a bit.

all good hopefully?

Yeah, recovering well.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on August 31, 2020, 11:58:54 pm
Ok, I think I'm caught up. Definitely think we should coordinate rather than pure random.  One thing I thought, what if instead of the two triangles and a pair, we don't exile today so that we have 3 triangle chains, and base it on sign up order instead of giving scum the chance to organize themselves into the same group or whatever? There would obviously still be a chance they would be, but it's at least purely random at that point instead of being somewhat more likely than random if we let them influence it.

I'm not thinking MiX is scum so far. Could be an over correction on my part, but I think his logic has been at least pro-town so far, so I'm ok with the operating assumption that he's town for now. I have a gut town read on both swowl and cayvie, but looking at that list I'm thinking I might just be townreading high recent activity.

You know what. I am gonna think about the triangle thing again. There are only 2 killing docs. Does that put skum in a shitty spot?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on September 01, 2020, 12:00:31 am
meh no.
The link the chain creates for roles like the JK makes it def better I think.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on September 01, 2020, 12:04:17 am
I do like using the sign up order more than the mix chain idea though.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on September 01, 2020, 12:05:33 am
or not the chain idea, but the selection process. I like the chain idea.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Dylan32 on September 01, 2020, 12:40:57 am
or not the chain idea, but the selection process. I like the chain idea.

Wait, so you think just do a chain in signup order?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Dylan32 on September 01, 2020, 01:13:01 am
I just had nearly a full post typed that was going to argue that a triangle with a JK is as good as a chain, but I think I would have been wrong. The chain is likely better concerning the JKís effectiveness and possible gained info about that particular role I think.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on September 01, 2020, 07:47:27 am
I hate signup order so much. But that's a personal thing, other than scum knowing N0 what it is there's nothing wrong with it. I just hate how it can create signup metas.

Given how little posting there's been, I guess my plan doesn't really work and would just get in the way of EoD, so, sure, signup it is.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Straw on September 01, 2020, 08:22:57 am
Where did Straw go?
I liked Straw. I wanna know what Straw thinks about shit.
Hi, sorry. I just realized that I hadn't posted in a bit. I'll try to be more active.

For the whole chain picking, I'd be against doing it randomly or in signup order. This is partially for moral reasons (I'd rather not have so much of the game be decided by chance) and partially because I think that chain picking will give us plenty of info on people, which we are desperately in need of. Other than that, I'm not sure which plan is best.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: jotheonah on September 01, 2020, 08:43:31 am
I hate signup order so much. But that's a personal thing, other than scum knowing N0 what it is there's nothing wrong with it. I just hate how it can create signup metas.

Given how little posting there's been, I guess my plan doesn't really work and would just get in the way of EoD, so, sure, signup it is.

Well then, why not alphabetical order? Or chronological by forum join date? Or birthday order? There's lots of "random" orders that aren't sign-up order specifically.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on September 01, 2020, 08:45:40 am
I hate signup order so much. But that's a personal thing, other than scum knowing N0 what it is there's nothing wrong with it. I just hate how it can create signup metas.

Given how little posting there's been, I guess my plan doesn't really work and would just get in the way of EoD, so, sure, signup it is.

Well then, why not alphabetical order? Or chronological by forum join date? Or birthday order? There's lots of "random" orders that aren't sign-up order specifically.

That's just choosing orders at that point, right? It has the same problems.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: jotheonah on September 01, 2020, 09:04:22 am
Birthday order is interesting because presumably we don't all know each others' birthdays (though Didds might). But there could be an order based on non-public but hard-to-falsify information that we can choose without knowing what we're choosing, which would approximate randomness.

Of course, people could lie about it. It gets into a weird territory.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on September 01, 2020, 09:06:17 am
Birthday order is interesting because presumably we don't all know each others' birthdays (though Didds might). But there could be an order based on non-public but hard-to-falsify information that we can choose without knowing what we're choosing, which would approximate randomness.

Of course, people could lie about it. It gets into a weird territory.

After we do it, it stops being non-public. It's too meta for my taste, but it's possible, sure.

I'd rather do signup order than this anyway-
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: scolapasta on September 01, 2020, 11:16:07 am
The problem with these arbitrary orders (like sign up, alpha) are that scum now them and may be the ones suggesting them). Birthdays in interesting, but sure people could lie.

Also, if we use one of them, how are they better than completely random? Though is there a way for the randomizing person to prove they chose a random order.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Awaclus on September 01, 2020, 12:07:23 pm
Well then, why not alphabetical order? Or chronological by forum join date? Or birthday order? There's lots of "random" orders that aren't sign-up order specifically.

The problem is that signup order is sort of the accepted standard arbitrary order. If we start debating what order to use, it's no longer arbitrary and that defeats the purpose of using an arbitrary order.

Another problem with the birthday order in particular is that it's personal information that some people might not want to reveal.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Awaclus on September 01, 2020, 12:08:30 pm
Also, if we use one of them, how are they better than completely random? Though is there a way for the randomizing person to prove they chose a random order.

There isn't a way, and that's how signup order is better.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Awaclus on September 01, 2020, 12:09:08 pm
Sorry, I had refresher training. Vote: EFHW

what is refresher training?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refresher_training_(military)
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Awaclus on September 01, 2020, 12:09:43 pm
Link didn't get parsed correctly

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refresher_training_(military) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refresher_training_(military))
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on September 01, 2020, 01:12:31 pm
With the chain idea, no matter how the order is determined, we are practically guaranteeing at least 2 deaths and seriously risking 3. It's 3 if the weak doctor is unlucky or if the nk doesn't hit one of the other victims, and they are more likely not to hit someone already dying than they are to double up a death. 4 if everything goes wrong. 1 death if the weak doctor is lucky and the nk hits the CPR doctor's target.

That's probably the cost of doing business, but how does this help us catch scum? If a vig hits scum, then yeah. But otherwise, we won't know anything very helpful.

Here is my pairs idea. I don't know if it is better, but we might want to think about it.

2 ways to die: nk, quack // 2 protectors: Real, jk. // 2 Switch hitters: CPR, weak. // 4 neutral: naive, nurse, 2 scum. If nurse decided to claim, they would be removed from plan.
 
Players A - I. A, C, E, G and I are targeted. Assuming all town deaths for this exercise.

A and B Target C.  C Dies, flips town.
C and D target E. E lives
E and F Target G.  F Dies, flips town
G and H Target I.  I Dies, flips town   
I Targets A. A lives

We can infer a few things.
1. {A, B, G, H} contains at most one protector. If there is a protector, they were jk'd or nk hit their target as well.
2. None of them are the jk.
3. {A, B, G, H} contains the CPR doctor (If CPR was used when needed, then there would only be 2 deaths). They were paired with a neutral person (naive, nurse or scum).
4. F died without being targeted. They are weak or the nk target. G might be scum.
5. I is not the quack. A, B, D and H were not the nk target.

That's all I've got now. Maybe I'll think of more later.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on September 01, 2020, 01:35:10 pm
Doesn't that pair idea basically guarantee scum NKs someone that isn't being targeted? With the chain, they can only realistically pick who they're picking as well, since we're all doctors.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: jotheonah on September 01, 2020, 01:36:12 pm
Hmm... I've found a possible problem with all these plans but I don't know if I should say it because it might give scum ideas.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on September 01, 2020, 01:50:38 pm
i prefer
scola test > no test > anyone else

mix's chain > signup order > any other chain >>>>> triangles > pairs > no plan
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on September 01, 2020, 02:10:45 pm
Doesn't that pair idea basically guarantee scum NKs someone that isn't being targeted? With the chain, they can only realistically pick who they're picking as well, since we're all doctors.

I was thinking they might choose not to in order to sow confusion. For example, if a non-targeted weak doctor dies and a non-targeted nk dies, scum are narrowed down to being one of the two people targeted by those two people. But I guess they could decide to take that chance and prioritize the kill going through.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Awaclus on September 01, 2020, 02:21:25 pm
Hmm... I've found a possible problem with all these plans but I don't know if I should say it because it might give scum ideas.

If there's a problem, we should assume scum has already figured it out too.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: jotheonah on September 01, 2020, 02:37:36 pm
Well it's just ... One thing scum can do vis a vis any publicly announced plan is they could target the person assigned to target them. Barring successful doctoring or jailkeeping, that ensures that if a vig successfully targets scum, they'll also die. And however many scum we manage to kill in the night, we'll lose that many vigs. Does that make sense?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: scolapasta on September 01, 2020, 02:42:12 pm
Also, if we use one of them, how are they better than completely random? Though is there a way for the randomizing person to prove they chose a random order.

There isn't a way, and that's how signup order is better.


Re: order, I think if we do arbitrary we should aim for as random as we can get.Here's an overcomplicated idea for that:

ē Agree on 3 people* who can post at around same time
ē Agree on a forum time
ēhave all three post a number from 1-8 at agreed time, which we can confirm get posted within seconds of each other.
ē use those numbers to parse through list (one example, calculate sum, then count that many characters over to the right and order alphabetically by that character)

*could be two, but three would guarantee a non scum, if for some reason important)

Like I said, overcomplicated, but it would be doable.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on September 01, 2020, 02:48:28 pm
Well it's just ... One thing scum can do vis a vis any publicly announced plan is they could target the person assigned to target them. Barring successful doctoring or jailkeeping, that ensures that if a vig successfully targets scum, they'll also die. And however many scum we manage to kill in the night, we'll lose that many vigs. Does that make sense?

If scum dies, that's already better than the average. Besides, only 1 vig will die, and there's 2. so scum can't actually take away the threat like this. This isn't really a problem.

There's a bunch of ways scum can target, let them figure it out. There's no correct way if we follow my plan.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Awaclus on September 01, 2020, 02:55:41 pm
Well it's just ... One thing scum can do vis a vis any publicly announced plan is they could target the person assigned to target them. Barring successful doctoring or jailkeeping, that ensures that if a vig successfully targets scum, they'll also die. And however many scum we manage to kill in the night, we'll lose that many vigs. Does that make sense?

That's true, but it's not super unlikely the vig is being protected, there could be two people targeting different scums, and nightkilling the townie who targets you doesn't make you look particularly towny (scum could plausibly do that and get away with it since there are multiple NKs, but it comes at a price).
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on September 01, 2020, 02:58:12 pm
Well it's just ... One thing scum can do vis a vis any publicly announced plan is they could target the person assigned to target them. Barring successful doctoring or jailkeeping, that ensures that if a vig successfully targets scum, they'll also die. And however many scum we manage to kill in the night, we'll lose that many vigs. Does that make sense?

That's true, but it's not super unlikely the vig is being protected, there could be two people targeting different scums, and nightkilling the townie who targets you doesn't make you look particularly towny (scum could plausibly do that and get away with it since there are multiple NKs, but it comes at a price).

Not to mention that in a chain the vig is always being protected, unless scum's also behind them, in which case it's just "scum picks who's ahead".
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Awaclus on September 01, 2020, 03:04:06 pm
Well it's just ... One thing scum can do vis a vis any publicly announced plan is they could target the person assigned to target them. Barring successful doctoring or jailkeeping, that ensures that if a vig successfully targets scum, they'll also die. And however many scum we manage to kill in the night, we'll lose that many vigs. Does that make sense?

That's true, but it's not super unlikely the vig is being protected, there could be two people targeting different scums, and nightkilling the townie who targets you doesn't make you look particularly towny (scum could plausibly do that and get away with it since there are multiple NKs, but it comes at a price).

Not to mention that in a chain the vig is always being protected, unless scum's also behind them, in which case it's just "scum picks who's ahead".

No? There are only 4 Doctors that actually protect. The chances are pretty good but not close to guaranteed, unless I'm misreading something.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Awaclus on September 01, 2020, 03:06:10 pm
Re: order, I think if we do arbitrary we should aim for as random as we can get.Here's an overcomplicated idea for that:

ē Agree on 3 people* who can post at around same time
ē Agree on a forum time
ēhave all three post a number from 1-8 at agreed time, which we can confirm get posted within seconds of each other.
ē use those numbers to parse through list (one example, calculate sum, then count that many characters over to the right and order alphabetically by that character)

*could be two, but three would guarantee a non scum, if for some reason important)

Like I said, overcomplicated, but it would be doable.

If we're going with a plan that involves an arbitrary order, and you don't support signup order, I'm going to assume it's because you're scum trying to manipulate it because the signup order is inconvenient for you for some reason.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on September 01, 2020, 03:08:02 pm
Well it's just ... One thing scum can do vis a vis any publicly announced plan is they could target the person assigned to target them. Barring successful doctoring or jailkeeping, that ensures that if a vig successfully targets scum, they'll also die. And however many scum we manage to kill in the night, we'll lose that many vigs. Does that make sense?

That's true, but it's not super unlikely the vig is being protected, there could be two people targeting different scums, and nightkilling the townie who targets you doesn't make you look particularly towny (scum could plausibly do that and get away with it since there are multiple NKs, but it comes at a price).

Not to mention that in a chain the vig is always being protected, unless scum's also behind them, in which case it's just "scum picks who's ahead".

No? There are only 4 Doctors that actually protect. The chances are pretty good but not close to guaranteed, unless I'm misreading something.

Yeah, but out of the other 2, 1 of them is a vig, so the NK doesn't actually change anything, and one of the doctors (CPR) would actually kill their target if the NK didn't also target their target. So scum killing town that is protected doesn't actually change the chances of that person dying.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: scolapasta on September 01, 2020, 03:31:42 pm
Re: order, I think if we do arbitrary we should aim for as random as we can get.Here's an overcomplicated idea for that:

ē Agree on 3 people* who can post at around same time
ē Agree on a forum time
ēhave all three post a number from 1-8 at agreed time, which we can confirm get posted within seconds of each other.
ē use those numbers to parse through list (one example, calculate sum, then count that many characters over to the right and order alphabetically by that character)

*could be two, but three would guarantee a non scum, if for some reason important)

Like I said, overcomplicated, but it would be doable.

If we're going with a plan that involves an arbitrary order, and you don't support signup order, I'm going to assume it's because you're scum trying to manipulate it because the signup order is inconvenient for you for some reason.

Really? I'm just trying to avoid, scum suggesting sign up order because they thought it would be to their advantage. Why would I suggest something complicated and impossible to game as scum?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on September 01, 2020, 03:45:37 pm
Well it's just ... One thing scum can do vis a vis any publicly announced plan is they could target the person assigned to target them. Barring successful doctoring or jailkeeping, that ensures that if a vig successfully targets scum, they'll also die. And however many scum we manage to kill in the night, we'll lose that many vigs. Does that make sense?

That's true, but it's not super unlikely the vig is being protected, there could be two people targeting different scums, and nightkilling the townie who targets you doesn't make you look particularly towny (scum could plausibly do that and get away with it since there are multiple NKs, but it comes at a price).

Not to mention that in a chain the vig is always being protected, unless scum's also behind them, in which case it's just "scum picks who's ahead".

No? There are only 4 Doctors that actually protect. The chances are pretty good but not close to guaranteed, unless I'm misreading something.

Yeah, but out of the other 2, 1 of them is a vig, so the NK doesn't actually change anything, and one of the doctors (CPR) would actually kill their target if the NK didn't also target their target. So scum killing town that is protected doesn't actually change the chances of that person dying.

if we test scum d1, or no test, there's a nurse out there too
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on September 01, 2020, 04:09:36 pm
We all dice roll public and go low to high
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on September 01, 2020, 04:10:54 pm
We all dice roll public and go low to high

Proposal for order to be clear
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: scolapasta on September 01, 2020, 04:48:40 pm
We all dice roll public and go low to high

Proposal for order to be clear

Is there a way to dice roll publicly? That is what I was getting at with my questions and came up with my overcomplicated way. If the above is possible, of course, that'd be an easier way.

Oh, now I see a die in the above "markup". Is that how?

Let me try it!

'' is not a valid dice string!

'test' is not a valid dice string!

'100' is not a valid dice string!
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: scolapasta on September 01, 2020, 04:49:03 pm
Oh, ok none of those worked. How does it work?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on September 01, 2020, 04:51:20 pm
Oh, ok none of those worked. How does it work?

You have to write it in dice notation. 1d6, for example.

Isn't actual randomness frowned upon?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: scolapasta on September 01, 2020, 05:00:14 pm
Oh, ok none of those worked. How does it work?

You have to write it in dice notation. 1d6, for example.

Isn't actual randomness frowned upon?

Rolled 1d6 : 5, total 5

Rolled 1d100 : 10, total 10
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on September 01, 2020, 05:01:07 pm
You can preview those, you know. At least I can.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: scolapasta on September 01, 2020, 05:01:22 pm
Oh, ok none of those worked. How does it work?

You have to write it in dice notation. 1d6, for example.

Isn't actual randomness frowned upon?

OK, cool, thanks!

I prefer random to sign up order. Not sure if I prefer random to your plan.

(I do think I might prefer 3 groups of 3 and no exile to a chain)
(http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/Themes/core/images/dice_warn.gif) This dice roll may have been tampered with!
Rolled 1d6 : 5, total 5
(http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/Themes/core/images/dice_warn.gif) This dice roll may have been tampered with!
Rolled 1d100 : 10, total 10
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: scolapasta on September 01, 2020, 05:02:08 pm
Oh, ok none of those worked. How does it work?

You have to write it in dice notation. 1d6, for example.

Isn't actual randomness frowned upon?

(http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/Themes/core/images/dice_warn.gif) This dice roll may have been tampered with!
Rolled 1d6 : 5, total 5
(http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/Themes/core/images/dice_warn.gif) This dice roll may have been tampered with!
Rolled 1d100 : 10, total 10

Quote fail: (and interesting "tampering note)

OK, cool, thanks!

I prefer random to sign up order. Not sure if I prefer random to your plan.

(I do think I might prefer 3 groups of 3 and no exile to a chain)
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: scolapasta on September 01, 2020, 05:02:54 pm
You can preview those, you know. At least I can.

Saw that. I do like that the preview rolls are not the actual rolls (since that would mean you could roll until you were happy with results).
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on September 01, 2020, 05:48:20 pm
Let's do the dice. How will we handle ties?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: scolapasta on September 01, 2020, 05:52:54 pm
Let's do the dice. How will we handle ties?

Roll 1d9, then 1d8, then 1d7, etc. (and bump people from the list once their number is rolled.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on September 01, 2020, 06:31:38 pm
I did not realize/remember/think about the fact that someone could preview then re-roll. I would like to say as skum in a spot like this I would follow the honor code, but I am not sure all will. So probably not the best plan.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: scolapasta on September 01, 2020, 06:49:52 pm
I did not realize/remember/think about the fact that someone could preview then re-roll. I would like to say as skum in a spot like this I would follow the honor code, but I am not sure all will. So probably not the best plan.

But you can't - the value during the preview is different than the value during post.

e.g.

Rolled 1d100 : 49, total 49


I will now click preview. (preview shows 89)
I will now hit post. (it will be different than 89, well 99 times out of 100)
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on September 01, 2020, 06:56:32 pm
Love you pasta - you could preview it, hit the back button on the browser and re do it
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: scolapasta on September 01, 2020, 07:07:06 pm
Love you pasta - you could preview it, hit the back button on the browser and re do it

Love you pasta - you could preview it, hit the back button on the browser and re do it

If you're saying you can see the result that will be there when you hit "post" (at which point, back button doesn't stop the post from happening), I believe you're mistaken. Try it. Make a post in which you type in the same post as you do the die roll the number that will appear (use 1000 which seems to be the largest to remove luck)

Rolled 1d1000 : 866, total 866
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on September 01, 2020, 07:34:13 pm
test

Rolled 1d100 : 40, total 40
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on September 01, 2020, 07:34:34 pm
ohp! nvm you are correct. Cannot tamper with it.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on September 01, 2020, 07:35:56 pm
old school peeps - you see a flaw in this we are missing? Tampering-wise I mean.

If we cannot tamper with it I think Dice roll is for sure the way to go.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on September 01, 2020, 07:38:59 pm
I am not discrediting the value in potentially gaining information based on players having to commit to reads.

But they are day 1 reads. Those wash off ALL THE TIME. So like, in a world where we try to use the top skum/top town selection process to have skum commit to a read... I mean... day 2 they just say "well x and y happened and changed my mind". That happens... all the time. That is why I think it is more advantageous to skum.

Well that and I cannot think of a singular more valuable thing for skum given we follow the plan other than "knowing everyone's top town and skum reads"... other than I guess having a complete skum to chum list from everyone.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Straw on September 01, 2020, 08:16:01 pm
Still really disagree with doing it randomly.

Swowl, I think that even if they can claim that, it still gives valuable information. Potentially bad information that we can analyze and discuss is better than nothing. Also, why do you think that sharing reads helps mafia? I think quite the opposite, as sharing reads allows villagers to discuss shared reads and different reads, and forces mafia to make up reads. In fact, I'd encourage everyone to share any reads they have.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on September 01, 2020, 10:16:19 pm
Still really disagree with doing it randomly.

Swowl, I think that even if they can claim that, it still gives valuable information. Potentially bad information that we can analyze and discuss is better than nothing. Also, why do you think that sharing reads helps mafia? I think quite the opposite, as sharing reads allows villagers to discuss shared reads and different reads, and forces mafia to make up reads. In fact, I'd encourage everyone to share any reads they have.

Am I correct that you disagree because information gained by scumhunting is not reflected? Did you think MiX's plan did that effectively?

It seems like different people on f.ds take different approaches to sharing reads. I haven't figured out what I think is best, but I see your point.

My admittedly impressionistic scum to chum is Swowl > Awaclus > MiX > Dylan > jotheonah > scola > Straw > cayvie

I'll reread tomorrow and amend if necessary.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on September 02, 2020, 01:50:02 am
Still really disagree with doing it randomly.

Swowl, I think that even if they can claim that, it still gives valuable information. Potentially bad information that we can analyze and discuss is better than nothing. Also, why do you think that sharing reads helps mafia? I think quite the opposite, as sharing reads allows villagers to discuss shared reads and different reads, and forces mafia to make up reads. In fact, I'd encourage everyone to share any reads they have.

all reads are made up reads at this point. its day 1, the same 4 people have been talking about the same two topics the entire time. Skum does't need to make up reads, they can just parrot someone or like do what EFHW just did and put a ton of people that are actually talking at the top of the list.

We do not trap mafia into a weird spot by sharing today. Tomorrow... ok maybe? but then the info is based off of the nonsense data today (which as I said before anyone can say they changed their mind about, so it doesn't matter)... and then if this day makes it day 4 that would be just bonkers.

Your concept is solid. No doubt. But it is solid for a long haul game in which we wanna look back and deduce. This is a 3 day game that will be primarily driven by the deductive logic created by whatever chain, triangle, or octagon or what the eff ever we decide to go with.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on September 02, 2020, 02:01:39 am
Let me put it simpler. and shorter, sorry.

1. I do not think that there is enough time in this game allotted for the Day 1 reads of potential players to have a significant enough effect, weighed against the results that we get to analyze from night actions, for them to matter. Almost at all.

2. If we do it random, as obvious as this might seem, it is random. So there is no "what if they are skum and chose player x bc whatever reason". I think removing that potential WIFOM component is quite valuable given the task at hand.


But most importantly, it is a small margin imo and we have talked about this so much to this point that the horse is gonna come back to life and start beating us.

We need to make a decision so we don't find ourselves down the line in a rush.

I would prefer the random order, but if everyone wants reads I won't be the only one to fight it.
I would also prefer the Chain over Triangles, but again, small margin.

Everyone should chip in on that bit at the minimum so we can see where we lay.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on September 02, 2020, 07:17:16 am
If we can use dice, we should. There's too much setup discussion as is for D1 reads to function like normal.

I would blame all of you if I didn't heavily participate in setup talk too, so I'm going to be slightly more mature and blame the setup for trying to look like dethy.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on September 02, 2020, 07:21:11 am
Well, I read the rules, nothing says we can't use dice, so...

1. MiX
2. cayvie
3. Awaclus
4. scolapasta
5. Swowl
6. EFHW
7. Dylan32
8. jotheonah
9. Straw

1d9 says who's first on the chain, that person then targets the 1d8 (skipping over the 1d9 number), which then targets 1d7, etc.

Rolled 1d9 : 2, total 2


Rolled 1d8 : 1, total 1


Rolled 1d7 : 6, total 6


Rolled 1d6 : 1, total 1


Rolled 1d5 : 5, total 5


Rolled 1d4 : 4, total 4


Rolled 1d3 : 2, total 2


Rolled 1d2 : 2, total 2
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on September 02, 2020, 07:22:41 am
cayvie -> MiX -> joth -> Awaclus -> Straw -> Dylan -> Swowl -> EFHW -> scola -> cayvie

There.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: jotheonah on September 02, 2020, 10:32:10 am
Cool. so now are we exiling or nah?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on September 02, 2020, 01:12:14 pm
huh, okay. i think im dying with this ordering XD
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on September 02, 2020, 01:48:12 pm
Cool. so now are we exiling or nah?

Nah.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on September 02, 2020, 01:48:25 pm
huh, okay. i think im dying with this ordering XD

Why?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: jotheonah on September 02, 2020, 01:56:52 pm
Vote: No Exile
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Dylan32 on September 02, 2020, 02:06:35 pm
vote: no exile
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on September 02, 2020, 02:20:28 pm
Vote Count 1.3

scolapasta (1): cayvie
Dylan23 (1): MiX
Straw (1): Swowl
EFHW (1): Awaclus

No Test (2): jotheonah, Dylan32

Not Voting (3): EFHW, Straw, scolapasta

With 9 alive it takes 5 to Test.

Day 1 ends at 11:40 AM FT on Friday, September 4th.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on September 02, 2020, 02:24:56 pm
This is mail-mi's way of saying "the flavor for this game is Test!"

Vote: No Test, fine.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on September 02, 2020, 02:45:23 pm
vote: no test
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: cayvie on September 02, 2020, 02:45:47 pm
huh, okay. i think im dying with this ordering XD

Why?

well because i think scola is a carrier
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on September 02, 2020, 02:47:06 pm
huh, okay. i think im dying with this ordering XD

Why?

well because i think scola is a carrier

Saying that will create some interesting WIFOM.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on September 02, 2020, 02:47:29 pm
vote: no test
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on September 02, 2020, 02:48:33 pm
huh, okay. i think im dying with this ordering XD

Why?

well because i think scola is a carrier

Saying that will create some interesting WIFOM.

Cayvie had already said that she was scumreading scola, so this doesn't change anything.

I think town kills more than scum, but it all depends on what they do.

vote: no test

Ooh, hammer.

No one forget the cycle!

cayvie -> MiX -> joth -> Awaclus -> Straw -> Dylan -> Swowl -> EFHW -> scola -> cayvie

I don't wanna hear any claims about not targeting who you're supposed to target, alright?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: EFHW on September 02, 2020, 02:49:58 pm
vote: no test

Tests aren't very reliable, anyway.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on September 02, 2020, 03:36:57 pm
Uh. That was a mistake. Cmon guys. The nurse! We should of been exiling today 100%
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: MiX on September 02, 2020, 03:45:41 pm
Uh. That was a mistake. Cmon guys. The nurse! We should of been exiling today 100%

It's fine, making as many people be alive as possible D2's useful anyway.

You think mistesting would help us more than not?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: scolapasta on September 02, 2020, 04:09:23 pm
Uh. That was a mistake. Cmon guys. The nurse! We should of been exiling today 100%

Actually, this makes me think of a question:

If the first doctor to die is at night and there are multiple, how is the nurse reassigned? Is it random?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: Swowl on September 02, 2020, 04:54:11 pm
Uh. That was a mistake. Cmon guys. The nurse! We should of been exiling today 100%



You think mistesting would help us more than not?

yes.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D1)
Post by: mail-mi on September 02, 2020, 05:40:00 pm
Uh. That was a mistake. Cmon guys. The nurse! We should of been exiling today 100%

Actually, this makes me think of a question:

If the first doctor to die is at night and there are multiple, how is the nurse reassigned? Is it random?

Good question. I'll make a ruling right now that it will be random.

Flavor and final vote count coming in a bit.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on September 02, 2020, 08:25:32 pm
WestCoastDidds burst into the living room from the kitchen. "Who ate my oreos?! Whoever did that is who we should test first!"

Everyone looked around. Black crumbs speckled the seats of more than one roommate--in fact, it looked like everyone had eaten her oreos.

"Well, we don't have enough time to test everyone..." jotheonah said.

"Agreed." MiX responded. "It's getting late. Why don't we just go to bed and decide tomorrow?"

"Sure." EFHW said. "What's the harm in that?"

Vote Count 1.FINAL

Straw (1): Swowl
EFHW (1): Awaclus

No Test (5): jotheonah, Dylan32, MiX, cayvie, EFHW

Not Voting (2): Straw, scolapasta

With 9 alive it took 5 to Test.

Night 1 begins now. Actions are due at 8:30 AM FT on Friday, September 4th. Day 2 will start sometime between then and 8:30 PM FT the same day.

Thread Locked!

Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on September 04, 2020, 10:29:16 am
It was not a typical, cozy morning when the roommates woke up the morning after mail-mi's test came back positive. Straw was worried about his date, EFHW was worried about her exams, and WestCoastDidds was worried about her oreos, but they should have been worried about the Sickness.

Swowl didn't leave his room that morning--but that was typical, mail-mi knew, because Swowl loved to sleep in. However, this morning, he didn't even stumble out of bed to grab breakfast before falling asleep again. Something was up.

MiX screamed when he got up. He shared a room with joth, and what was in joth's bed was a gruesome sight.

And finally, once they realized that it was Dylan32 who had stolen cayvie's blanket, she and Awaclus burst into his room and found only a corpse.

Three people, dead in one night? mail-mi thought. There has to be something more than the Sickness going on here....

Swowl has died! He was a Doctor!

jotheonah has died! He was a Doctor!

Dylan32 has died! He was a Doctor!

Day 2 starts now!


Vote Count 2.0

Not Voting (6): MiX, cayvie, Awaclus, scolapasta, EFHW, Straw

With 6 alive it takes 4 to Test.

Day 2 starts now and ends at 10:30AM FT on Friday, September 11th.

Thread Unlocked!
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: MiX on September 04, 2020, 11:07:34 am
cayvie
MiX
joth
Awaclus
Straw
Dylan
Swowl
EFHW
scola

We should nurse claim.

I'm not nurse
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 04, 2020, 02:30:48 pm
cayvie
MiX
joth
Awaclus
Straw
Dylan
Swowl
EFHW
scola

We should nurse claim.

I'm not nurse

i'm not the nurse
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 04, 2020, 02:31:59 pm
screw it im callin it, we're popcorning these claims.

scolapasta, you claim next. then you pick someone to claim, etc etc.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 04, 2020, 02:40:07 pm
also: i certainly have mech-solvey thoughts, but i would strongly recommend that we refrain from doing anything else in the thread before we finish these nurse claims.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: MiX on September 04, 2020, 02:44:43 pm
also: i certainly have mech-solvey thoughts, but i would strongly recommend that we refrain from doing anything else in the thread before we finish these nurse claims.

I completely agree, I'm so itchy to solve once the nurse is out. Come on, everyone claim already!

Also we don't need to popcorn if we're just doing the nurse claim.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: scolapasta on September 04, 2020, 02:59:45 pm
This day just started yeah? So let's slow down a bit, how does nurse claiming help us? My gut is that it would help scum more, no?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: MiX on September 04, 2020, 03:05:23 pm
This day just started yeah? So let's slow down a bit, how does nurse claiming help us? My gut is that it would help scum more, no?

A nurse claim narrows down who's scum, not to mention help with the mechanical aspect of the setup.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: Straw on September 04, 2020, 03:56:25 pm
I'm not a nurse.

We should start trying to narrow down the doctor possibilities. Dylan seems easy enough to do.

Dylan:
-Not Paranoid Doc.
-Not Weak Doc unless Straw is the Paranoid Doc
-Not Normal Doc unless Straw is the Paranoid Doc or Swowl was the Weak Doc and mafia killed.
-Could be CPR/Quack/Naive Doc.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: MiX on September 04, 2020, 04:01:48 pm
They're not Weak Doc because you can't be Paranoid Doc: otherwise Dylan couldn't die.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: Awaclus on September 04, 2020, 04:46:21 pm
I am the nurse and what the fuck was that order about, vote: MiX and strong FOS on anyone who went along with it and ended the day early.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: MiX on September 04, 2020, 04:47:46 pm
I am the nurse and what the fuck was that order about, vote: MiX and strong FOS on anyone who went along with it and ended the day early.

What? Of course random is better than signup, the chances scum likes the random are the same as setup, except they can't see it coming.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: Awaclus on September 04, 2020, 04:48:59 pm
I am the nurse and what the fuck was that order about, vote: MiX and strong FOS on anyone who went along with it and ended the day early.

What? Of course random is better than signup, the chances scum likes the random are the same as setup, except they can't see it coming.

It wasn't a random order, you saw what signup order was and then decided that specific order wasn't convenient enough for you.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: MiX on September 04, 2020, 04:50:37 pm
I am the nurse and what the fuck was that order about, vote: MiX and strong FOS on anyone who went along with it and ended the day early.

What? Of course random is better than signup, the chances scum likes the random are the same as setup, except they can't see it coming.

It wasn't a random order, you saw what signup order was and then decided that specific order wasn't convenient enough for you.

That's confirmation bias, what actually happened is that I'm town and I randomized an order. How do I know if scum likes signup?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: Awaclus on September 04, 2020, 04:51:14 pm
I am the nurse and what the fuck was that order about, vote: MiX and strong FOS on anyone who went along with it and ended the day early.

What? Of course random is better than signup, the chances scum likes the random are the same as setup, except they can't see it coming.

It wasn't a random order, you saw what signup order was and then decided that specific order wasn't convenient enough for you.

That's confirmation bias, what actually happened is that I'm town and I randomized an order. How do I know if scum likes signup?

You know if scum likes signup by checking whether or not you like signup. If you like it, scum likes it.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: MiX on September 04, 2020, 04:54:06 pm
As town...

Your argument seems to be "you don't like the signup order, and since you're scum, scum doesn't like the signup order, so you randomizing it instead of taking signup order is scummy".

For all I knew, you could be scum that liked it.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: Awaclus on September 04, 2020, 05:01:06 pm
As town...

Your argument seems to be "you don't like the signup order, and since you're scum, scum doesn't like the signup order, so you randomizing it instead of taking signup order is scummy".

For all I knew, you could be scum that liked it.

My argument is "you randomized it instead of taking signup order, which must be because you don't like the signup order because that's the only reason why anyone would do that, which must be because you're scum because that's the only reason why anyone would have a preference for one order over another because only scum knows any other players' roles besides their own".
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: MiX on September 04, 2020, 05:11:56 pm
As town...

Your argument seems to be "you don't like the signup order, and since you're scum, scum doesn't like the signup order, so you randomizing it instead of taking signup order is scummy".

For all I knew, you could be scum that liked it.

My argument is "you randomized it instead of taking signup order, which must be because you don't like the signup order because that's the only reason why anyone would do that, which must be because you're scum because that's the only reason why anyone would have a preference for one order over another because only scum knows any other players' roles besides their own".

I randomized it to make sure scum didn't like signup order, this way I make sure no one else has a say in it, scum can't take advantage of it in any way, I hate signup as it creates a meta of signing into a game, scum could've talked about what would happen with a signup order so they could be more prepared (somehow), and I think all orders should be randomized if what we want is an order scum can't manipulate.

The fact that you think signup order should be standard doesn't mean everyone else does too.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: Awaclus on September 04, 2020, 05:34:20 pm
I randomized it to make sure scum didn't like signup order, this way I make sure no one else has a say in it, scum can't take advantage of it in any way, I hate signup as it creates a meta of signing into a game, scum could've talked about what would happen with a signup order so they could be more prepared (somehow), and I think all orders should be randomized if what we want is an order scum can't manipulate.

The fact that you think signup order should be standard doesn't mean everyone else does too.

I don't necessarily think that it should be the standard, but it is.

The only difference the order makes to scum is whether the scums are next to each other or not. There was nothing to prepare for because we didn't do anything at all D1. If you were town, scum would have made their first actual decision N1, at which point they would have known your randomized order anyway and been exactly as prepared as they would have been with the signup order.

If you are making in-game decisions that affect the in-game outcome for meta-game reasons, you should stop doing that immediately, but I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt and assuming that you're scum instead.

It is not true that we had an order that scum couldn't manipulate. On the contrary, we had an order that scum did manipulate (specifically, by deciding to re-roll it).
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: MiX on September 04, 2020, 05:45:39 pm
How do you know scum manipulated it and not town?

I understand your argument, but that only works if you know scum's position on the order, which we don't know.

Voting for me is fine though, chances are Straw's scum, as the chances that me/Dylan/Straw have exactly CPR/Quack/Naive and scum NKd who the Naive picked are low, so it puts me in a soft conflict with Straw.

We can't both be scum though, so we should probably find the scum in cayvie/EFHW/scola.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: Straw on September 04, 2020, 05:46:30 pm
I am the nurse and what the fuck was that order about, vote: MiX and strong FOS on anyone who went along with it and ended the day early.
Agreed about the order and early day end.

I am the nurse and what the fuck was that order about, vote: MiX and strong FOS on anyone who went along with it and ended the day early.

What? Of course random is better than signup, the chances scum likes the random are the same as setup, except they can't see it coming.
The choice didn't have to be between random or signup, so don't imply that those were the only options.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: MiX on September 04, 2020, 05:53:44 pm
I am the nurse and what the fuck was that order about, vote: MiX and strong FOS on anyone who went along with it and ended the day early.
Agreed about the order and early day end.

I am the nurse and what the fuck was that order about, vote: MiX and strong FOS on anyone who went along with it and ended the day early.

What? Of course random is better than signup, the chances scum likes the random are the same as setup, except they can't see it coming.
The choice didn't have to be between random or signup, so don't imply that those were the only options.

Any reads-based order would've taken too long for when we were in the day and we hadn't really interacted yet, and the other arbitrary ones are worse than random.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: Awaclus on September 04, 2020, 05:56:50 pm
How do you know scum manipulated it and not town?

Because town had no reason to do it.

I understand your argument, but that only works if you know scum's position on the order, which we don't know.

I don't know scum's position on the order, but I don't have to. I know that it makes a difference whether or not they're next to each other (at the moment, I can't be assed to actually think through the pros and cons of each to figure out which one they want to be but I'm 90-93% sure they're substantially different), and from that and the fact that it was re-rolled, we can deduce that the original signup order had the less convenient option.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: EFHW on September 04, 2020, 09:17:14 pm
I have to say, Awaclus does have a good argument.  MiX, how can you say scum could manipulate the order when signing up? None of us knew our alignments when we signed up!

No cc here.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: EFHW on September 04, 2020, 09:35:36 pm
And Awaclus,  what pattern in a given order would be bad for scum?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: Straw on September 04, 2020, 09:54:35 pm
And Awaclus,  what pattern in a given order would be bad for scum?
It seems like at a mechanical level, scum would want to be next to each other. That way, they reduce their chances of getting vigged, and by having the person in front submit the kill, they avoid getting roleblocked entirely.

Beyond that, scum would probably want to position the towniest person either just behind or just in front of them. Behind would be useful because if one of them does get vigged, it means the vig might get killed, but it also runs the risk of the person behind them being protected. It also runs the risk of the person behind dying from other methods (weak doc, vig). In front would be useful because they know that their target will not be protected and wouldn't die from other means.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: EFHW on September 04, 2020, 10:35:18 pm
What would be a bad enough position that scum would try to influence how the order is determined?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 05, 2020, 01:49:08 am
i'm gonna see if this is solveable. we had 3 doctor deaths. let's take Awaclus's nurse claim as factual. great.

cayvie
MiX
joth
Awaclus
Straw
Dylan
Swowl
EFHW
scola

let's assume all town followed the chain.

there are four possible sources of death: carrier NK, quack, CPR, and weak doctor targeting mafia.

did the weak doctor target mafia? dylan targeted swowl (town), and joth targeted awaclus (nurse). was swowl weak targeting mafia? if that's the case, that makes EFHW mafia. however, in this case, that means there is a kill that is not accounted for. either the mafia holstered their shot, shot someone who was protected, shot someone who was dying anyway, or dylan was a vig and swowl was dying anyway. these are possible. it squares with the fact that none of the kills was anyone who was particularly town-leader-y. i would have expected myself or MiX to die.

so potentially, the mafia targeted me or mix, but we were protected. let's say the mafia targeted MiX. this narrows down the possibilities immensely! what can my role be in that instance? I can't be jailkeeper, because joth died. I can't be CPR doctor, because there were 3 deaths, and we're already blocking the mafia death. so if the mafia targeted MiX, i must be the regular doctor. it also makes Straw the Quack, Swowl the Weak doctor, EFHW mafia, and MiX the CPR doctor. So what kind of doctor was Dylan? Dylan must have been the Naive doctor, because if Dylan was the paranoid doctor, then Swowl wouldn't have died.

So, if MiX was the mafia target, this means that EFHW and Scola are the scumteam.

i think that this is literally the only possible scumteam who could have targeted MiX last night, and this is the setup it would have had to be. fascinating! i'm definitely gonna go thru and see if i can solve the other potential mafia targets last night.

cayvie - doctor
MiX - cpr (or quack)
joth - jailkeeper
Awaclus - nurse
Straw - quack (or CPR)
Dylan - naive doctor
Swowl - weak doctor
EFHW carruer
scola carrier
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: Awaclus on September 05, 2020, 01:55:29 am
But why would the scum team target MiX?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 05, 2020, 01:55:53 am
what if the mafia targeted cayvie?

cayvie
MiX
joth
Awaclus
Straw
Dylan
Swowl
EFHW
scola

this would mean that scola is either the Doctor or the Jailkeeper. this also again makes Swowl the weak doctor and EFHW scum (because there were three deaths somehow, and the mafia kill was blocked in this scenario).

cayvie doctor
MiX cpr or quack
joth
Awaclus nurse
Straw cpr or quack
Dylan naive
Swowl weak
EFHW
scola paranoid

oops we run out of potential carriers. there's nobody who can be a partner with EFHW and still account for all 3 kills happening.

we can rule out the scenario in which the mafia targeted me for the nightkill.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 05, 2020, 01:56:39 am
But why would the scum team target MiX?

oh i'm just trying to see if we can flat-out solve the game. the mafia either targeted *someone* or holstered. i'm gonna brute force every damn scenario.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 05, 2020, 01:59:03 am
what if the mafia targeted scolapasta?

cayvie
MiX
joth
Awaclus
Straw
Dylan
Swowl
EFHW
scola

yet again, we get EFHW as scum and swowl as the weak doctor. but if EFHW is scum, then who doctored scola?

we can rule out the scenario where mafia targeted scolapasta
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 05, 2020, 02:01:29 am
what if the mafia targeted EFHW?

cayvie
MiX
joth
Awaclus
Straw
Dylan
Swowl
EFHW
scola

if the mafia targeted EFHW, then, again, where did all 3 deaths come from? mix vigged joth, straw vigged dylan, and swowl died because??

we can rule out the scenario where mafia targeted EFHW
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 05, 2020, 02:08:22 am
what if the mafia targeted Straw?

cayvie
MiX
joth
Awaclus
Straw
Dylan
Swowl
EFHW
scola

if mafia targeted straw, that means that the kill must have been blocked by the jailkeeper, as awaclus is the nurse and couldn't have protected straw.

we get swowl as weak and EFHW as scum for the same reasons as before, the three kills have to come from somewhere.

cayvie
MiX cpr/quack
joth
Awaclus
Straw cpr/quack
Dylan
Swowl weak
EFHW
scola

well shit, this scenario means that i have to be EFHW's partner, and it makes scola jailkeeper. is this consistent?

cayvie - targeted straw
MiX cpr/quack
joth doctor
Awaclus
Straw cpr/quack
Dylan naive
Swowl weak
EFHW
scola - paranoid

uh yeah this is logically consistent. so

if the mafia targeted Straw, then the team is EFHW/cayvie (i know it's not this one, but let's be thorough)
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 05, 2020, 02:13:33 am
i didn't consider the mafia kill being blocked by the paranoid doctor in the case where mix was the mafia target. does that change anything?

cayvie - targeted MiX
MiX cpr/quack
joth - doctor
Awaclus
Straw cpr/quack
Dylan - naive
Swowl weak
EFHW
scola - paranoid

okay, cayvie/EFHW is another possible solution for mafia targeting MiX
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 05, 2020, 02:18:50 am
actually this cayvie/EFHW team with scola as paranoid doctor is a valid solution in many scenarios where the mafia nightkill is blocked. i don't like it, but there it is. if scola is paranoid and i carried the kill, then you do have to consider it.

however, i don't!

so: either the mafia killed someone successfully, or the team is EFHW/Scolapasta and they targeted MiX.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 05, 2020, 02:42:30 am
what if joth was the mafia target?

cayvie
MiX
joth
Awaclus - nurse
Straw
Dylan
Swowl
EFHW
scola

well, in that case, could the weak doctor have died just for targeting mafia (i.e., in a situation where they would have lived if their target had been town)? let's see. in that scenario, we are stuck again with Swowl as weak doctor targeting scum!EFHW.

so why are there only 3 deaths? it must be because the mafia kill overlapped with another kill. and so MiX must be the quack. or he's the CPR doctor and the kill was jailkept. yes, EFHW/cayvie is the only team in that scenario too. logic is great, i love it.

but let's consider the situation where MiX is quack and the mafia kill went through, joth was just killed twice. how does that work out?

cayvie doctor
MiX quack
joth paranoid
Awaclus - nurse
Straw - cpr
Dylan naive
Swowl weak
EFHW
scola

so if mafia targeted joth, AND the weak doctor hit mafia, THEN the only possible teams are EFHW/scola and EFHW/cayvie

but what if the weak doctor hit town? WHAT THEN? well, this means that the other two deaths must be the result of the two viggish roles.

cayvie
MiX
joth
Awaclus - nurse
Straw quack/cpr
Dylan quack/cpr
Swowl
EFHW
scola

so what is MiX's role? he can't be a jailkeeper or regular doctor because joth is dead. so he must be weak, naive, or carrier.

if mix is carrier... EFHW, scola, and I could all be partners with him. i think there are valid solutions for all 3.

in fact i think any 2 of EFHW, scola, mix and myself could be mafia in this scenario. the only new info we know is if mafia successfully killed joth, then straw is town, and a vig.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 05, 2020, 02:58:11 am
what if mafia targeted Dylan?

cayvie
MiX
joth
Awaclus - nurse
Straw
Dylan
Swowl
EFHW
scola

well blah blah there's always that dumb EFHW/cayvie team with scola as paranoid. get it out of the way. i'm not a carrier, okay

so, what are the actual possibilities?

cayvie
MiX - cpr/quack
joth
Awaclus - nurse
Straw
Dylan - cpr/quack
Swowl
EFHW
scola

fill in the other kills. so, what is straw? not the doctor, the paranoid, or the weak doctor--must be naive or carrier. yeah we aren't narrowing it down too much. i think that in this scenario, all we can say is if mafia killed dylan, then MiX is town, and a vig.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 05, 2020, 03:07:49 am
eh i don't think i'm getting anywhere but sleepy

there's a bunch of EFHW scum / swowl weak doctor edge cases that show up but they're real specific. most likely the weak doctor didn't die because of targeting mafia, and in those scenarios, basically everyone can be a carrier.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: MiX on September 05, 2020, 07:53:55 am
I really like the analysis here, but I think starting from "if mafia NKd X" is the wrong way to go. Instead, you should look at every possible team, and see what's possible.

For example, me and straw are an impossible team, because then scum couldn't kill both of our targets. This info extends to if joth/Dylan was NKd, then Straw/MiX is town, respectively.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: EFHW on September 05, 2020, 09:11:55 am
You are being so bossy! Have you carried your method any further than that one inference?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: MiX on September 05, 2020, 09:18:09 am
You are being so bossy! Have you carried your method any further than that one inference?

Yes, every other team is possible, but cayvie/scola pair is more unlikely than the other 8 (and mix/straw is impossible).
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 05, 2020, 11:44:16 am
actually, from my perspective at least, eliminating mix/straw as a team tells me that at least one of scola/EFHW is a carrier
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 05, 2020, 11:49:33 am
here's another inference:

at least one of mix/Straw is a vig (quack/CPR doc).
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 05, 2020, 12:57:53 pm
we also know that neither MiX or scola has a protective role, unless that role is the CPR doctor.

so here's a pretty good strategy:

today we chop EFHW. EFHW will flip either town or carrier.

if EFHW flips town, then both MiX and Straw target scola, everyone else do nothing. Scola will either: live through the night, flip town, or flip carrier.

if scola lives through the night, that means one of two things. EITHER both MiX and Straw are town or one of them is a wolf and the other is the CPR doctor. there is no other way for scola to live through the night here. We can eliminate the MiX/Straw are both town option, because in that case, we have cleared everyone but cayvie, and there's no one left to be my partner. So we know that one of MiX/Straw is the CPR doctor and the other is a carrier. We also know that scola is town, unless we think that carriers tried to kill themselves n1. (is it even legal for carriers to self-target?) so this means that cayvie is a wolf. we chop cayvie, and then whichever of MiX/Straw is the CPR doctor shoots the other one at night. game over. unless the carriers kill the CPR doc at night, in which case we know that the one who is still alive between MiX/Straw is the remaining carrier, and chop them the next day.

if scola flips town, that means the team is either cayvie/MiX or cayvie/Straw and we tricked you. I know this isn't the case, but you don't.

if scola flips carrier, then we know the team is either scola/Straw or scola/MiX, which means that (if both Mix and Straw are alive tomorrow), that we can no-test and then whichever of them is the CPR/quack shoots the other and wins. and if one of them is dead, then we can chop the other and win.

if EFHW flips carrier

then hooray! in this scenario, night actions are: MiX targets cayvie, Straw targets scola, everyone else does nothing.

if either cayvie or scola flips carrier, then hooray, we have won the game.

if both cayvie and scola flip town, then we know that the team is either MiX/EFHW or Straw/EFHW, and the carriers used their kill on one of cayvie/scola. in this scenario, we no test, and then whichever is the CPR/quack between MiX and Straw targets the other at night, winning the game.

if both cayvie and scola survive, then, uh... this means that one of MiX/Straw is the CPR doctor and the other is the remaining carrier, and the carrier decided to target the person that the other was targeting. in which case, yet again, we have them kill each other at night and solve the game.

if cayvie flips town and scola survives, then: was there another death? if yes, then we know that Straw or Scola is the remaining carrier. if the team is EFHW/Scola there's only one possible permutation: the one where Swowl was weak, Straw is naive, Dylan was vig1, Mix is vig2, Awaclus is nurse, cayvie is doc, and joth was jailkeeper. if the team is EFHW/Straw, there's a lot more permutations--it's much more likely. chop Straw and probably win, like 90%. if i'm the only death, then this scenario basically means that mafia decided to no-kill (or carrier!scola tried to commit suicide, if that's even possible--and if this is what happened, he risked a 50/50 shot at losing the game on the spot, gambling that Straw was the CPR doctor and not the quack). so either Straw or scola is the remaining mafia, and MiX is a vig. We chop one, MiX shoots the other at night, if necessary, town wins.

if scola flips town and cayvie survives, then: follow the same logic as above.

this is a pretty darn good plan, from my perspective. feel free to ask questions. and post concerns.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: Awaclus on September 05, 2020, 02:55:13 pm
We're at MyLo. Because we have a collection of docs and vigs, it's not set in stone that we will lose if we mistest here, but certainly if we mistest today and go into N2 with confirmed unprotected townies, we're not testing anyone tomorrow.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: Awaclus on September 05, 2020, 03:04:39 pm
I'm pretty tired and slightly under the influence, but from what I can tell in this state, the plan should work iff EFHW flips carrier. If she flips town and we do that plan, we're going to struggle and probably lose, so let's not follow that half of the plan.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 05, 2020, 03:42:01 pm
I'm pretty tired and slightly under the influence, but from what I can tell in this state, the plan should work iff EFHW flips carrier. If she flips town and we do that plan, we're going to struggle and probably lose, so let's not follow that half of the plan.

it frankly depends on if you trust me. if EFHW flips town *and you trust that i'm town*, then it's a guaranteed win for town
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: Awaclus on September 05, 2020, 03:52:45 pm
I'm pretty tired and slightly under the influence, but from what I can tell in this state, the plan should work iff EFHW flips carrier. If she flips town and we do that plan, we're going to struggle and probably lose, so let's not follow that half of the plan.

it frankly depends on if you trust me. if EFHW flips town *and you trust that i'm town*, then it's a guaranteed win for town

But if you're not town, it's a guaranteed win for scum.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: EFHW on September 05, 2020, 06:37:14 pm
My name does keep coming up in cayvie's analysis.  I'm going to have to work through my own analysis now to defend myself,  so I'll need a bit of time.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: EFHW on September 05, 2020, 06:38:49 pm
You are being so bossy! Have you carried your method any further than that one inference?

Yes, every other team is possible, but cayvie/scola pair is more unlikely than the other 8 (and mix/straw is impossible).
So how come cayvie has all these findings and you aren't reporting any?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: EFHW on September 05, 2020, 06:41:33 pm
If it looks like my flip will be decisive, I'll probably agree you should test me. But I want to see it for myself before I go along with something like that.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: MiX on September 05, 2020, 06:43:44 pm
You are being so bossy! Have you carried your method any further than that one inference?

Yes, every other team is possible, but cayvie/scola pair is more unlikely than the other 8 (and mix/straw is impossible).
So how come cayvie has all these findings and you aren't reporting any?

They're pretty obvious...cayvie's conclusions all stem from the fact that both joth and dylan died while me and straw targeted them, and that's the easiest thing you can say about the setup. It's also where the deduction ends.

Cayvie's plan is bad, but testing EFHW isn't. There's definitely at least 1 scum in (EFHW/scola/cayvie), and EFHW is the most likely one out of mechanics due to weak doctor existing.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: scolapasta on September 05, 2020, 10:09:49 pm
I'm unavailable much of this weekend, but I definitely want to find some time to go and read all this.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 06, 2020, 02:54:39 am
You are being so bossy! Have you carried your method any further than that one inference?

Yes, every other team is possible, but cayvie/scola pair is more unlikely than the other 8 (and mix/straw is impossible).
So how come cayvie has all these findings and you aren't reporting any?

They're pretty obvious...cayvie's conclusions all stem from the fact that both joth and dylan died while me and straw targeted them, and that's the easiest thing you can say about the setup. It's also where the deduction ends.

Cayvie's plan is bad, but testing EFHW isn't. There's definitely at least 1 scum in (EFHW/scola/cayvie), and EFHW is the most likely one out of mechanics due to weak doctor existing.

pfffff my plan is great u nerd

i mean literally from my perspective if EFHW flips town, we 100% win.

if EFHW flips wolf, we only like 90% win, but we still flip a wolf.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: Awaclus on September 06, 2020, 07:44:37 am
Why should we trust that you're town?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: EFHW on September 06, 2020, 07:57:45 pm
Been working my way through scenarios. One assumption or another doesn't yield much. Will try a bit longer.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: MiX on September 06, 2020, 08:51:40 pm
Been working my way through scenarios. One assumption or another doesn't yield much. Will try a bit longer.

Deduction mostly ends in "me and straw aren't both scum, one of us is one kind of vig". At least deduction that's important for today, there's some conditioning things that can help us determine who we are for tomorrow.

Plans like cayvie's also don't work, we need too much trust for that. It's functionally MiLo, so we need to catch scum. I guess I'll have to start rereading this from a reads perspective other than mechanically.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: EFHW on September 06, 2020, 09:51:45 pm
Just figured out the MiX and Straw can't be partners thing, like it was a great discovery, and then realized it was already common knowledge  :(
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on September 07, 2020, 12:52:13 pm
Vote Count 2.1

MiX (1): Awaclus

Not Voting (5): MiX, cayvie, scolapasta, EFHW, Straw

With 6 alive it takes 4 to Test.

Day 2 ends at 10:30AM FT on Friday, September 11th.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 08, 2020, 12:29:49 am
Just figured out the MiX and Straw can't be partners thing, like it was a great discovery, and then realized it was already common knowledge  :(

it's good tho! having different people looking thru the logic and coming to the same conclusions makes sure we're not being misled or just making mistakes
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: cayvie on September 08, 2020, 12:31:45 am
Why should we trust that you're town?

yeah i get that it's a big ask. i kind of figured i might have enough townie cred to ask that, but it's reasonable if y'all don't want to at melo.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: Awaclus on September 08, 2020, 02:29:05 am
Making such an important decision at melo would be very dramatic. You could even call it melodramatic.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on September 08, 2020, 04:39:21 pm
Vote Count 2.2

MiX (1): Awaclus

Not Voting (5): MiX, cayvie, scolapasta, EFHW, Straw

With 6 alive it takes 4 to Test.

Day 2 ends at 10:30AM FT on Friday, September 11th.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: Awaclus on September 09, 2020, 01:00:56 pm
Vote: EFHW
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: MiX on September 09, 2020, 02:31:01 pm
Vote: EFHW

You think she's scum?

Also I should actually invest time into this game.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: Awaclus on September 09, 2020, 02:42:44 pm
Yeah.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: scolapasta on September 09, 2020, 02:52:52 pm
Vote: EFHW

You think she's scum?

Also I should actually invest time into this game.

Yeah,  me too. Still not ready to come back from holiday weekend, but I guess I must. I'll put some time in today or tomorrow.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: EFHW on September 09, 2020, 04:08:36 pm
Did we all get prodded?

6 person game, 2 are scum. Decent odds. Deadline on Friday. That's my birthday!

vote: scola.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: MiX on September 09, 2020, 04:44:01 pm
Did we all get prodded?

6 person game, 2 are scum. Decent odds. Deadline on Friday. That's my birthday!

vote: scola.

If you see who it was sent, it says all of us (and Didds), which is in all honesty fair.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: EFHW on September 09, 2020, 05:58:46 pm
Did we all get prodded?

6 person game, 2 are scum. Decent odds. Deadline on Friday. That's my birthday!

vote: scola.

If you see who it was sent, it says all of us (and Didds), which is in all honesty fair.
You are of course right, but ...

vote: MiX. Been lecturing and correcting people a lot more than usual or necessary.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: EFHW on September 09, 2020, 11:35:35 pm
crickets
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: MiX on September 10, 2020, 12:04:33 pm
Did we all get prodded?

6 person game, 2 are scum. Decent odds. Deadline on Friday. That's my birthday!

vote: scola.

If you see who it was sent, it says all of us (and Didds), which is in all honesty fair.
You are of course right, but ...

vote: MiX. Been lecturing and correcting people a lot more than usual or necessary.

Does answering a question count as "lecturing and correcting people"? Because I was trying correcting you, but interpreting that as such is weird when I could've just been answering your question.

Who do you think we should exile?

crickets

It's really hard to muster up motivation to reread when I have one thing I'm looking for and it's not even good enough of a tell to deduce anything, okay?

I'll just say "I'll get back on my reread results tonight" so I force myself to commit to it.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: EFHW on September 10, 2020, 01:40:43 pm
Where's everyone else? What's the one thing you are looking for?

So you are saying I interpreted you correctly, but that is weird for me to do?

Lecturing and correcting was too strong, anyway. I think I mean going into more detail than usual. Which isn't bad in itself, but it's a change. Like, you usually leave details out and people have to piece together what you mean. I would expect town!you to say "obviously" instead of "look here and you will see ..." 

I'm voting you.

Are we no-testing today? Are we targeting tonight? Less than 24 hours to go.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: scolapasta on September 10, 2020, 01:51:18 pm
I'm still catching up. Will post more later today and at least throw in a vote.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: scolapasta on September 11, 2020, 01:21:59 am
So I'm not sure I'm fully on board with the cayvie plan (there's the trust cayvie is town part), but I'm in for the testing part:

Vote: EFHW
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on September 11, 2020, 10:03:58 am
Vote Count 2.3

EFHW (2): Awaclus, scolapasta
MiX (1): EFHW

Not Voting (3): cayvie, MiX, Straw

With 6 alive it takes 4 to Test.

Day 2 ends at 10:30AM FT on Friday, September 11th. That's in 27 minutes.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: scolapasta on September 11, 2020, 10:14:29 am
Vote Count 2.3

EFHW (2): Awaclus, scolapasta
MiX (1): EFHW

Not Voting (3): cayvie, scolapasta, Straw

With 6 alive it takes 4 to Test.

Day 2 ends at 10:30AM FT on Friday, September 11th. That's in 27 minutes.


I'm listed twice. And No MiX.

Also, where is everyone?? I mean, I kniw I haven't posted much, but at least I got a vote in. cayvie, where's your vote with your plan?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: scolapasta on September 11, 2020, 10:22:45 am
Is anyone else around??
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia
Post by: mail-mi on September 11, 2020, 10:26:18 am
Vote Count 2.3

EFHW (2): Awaclus, scolapasta
MiX (1): EFHW

Not Voting (3): cayvie, scolapasta, Straw

With 6 alive it takes 4 to Test.

Day 2 ends at 10:30AM FT on Friday, September 11th. That's in 27 minutes.


I'm listed twice. And No MiX.

Also, where is everyone?? I mean, I kniw I haven't posted much, but at least I got a vote in. cayvie, where's your vote with your plan?

Thanks, fixed.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: scolapasta on September 11, 2020, 10:33:02 am
Well, I guess No test it is.

Good luck vigs tonight. I hope one of you targets EFHW.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: mail-mi on September 11, 2020, 10:37:05 am
"Where are cayvie and straw?" mail-mi wondered aloud. "I should probably go check their rooms, they're missing EFHW's birthday cake!"

mail-mi found them lifeless in their beds, having gotten ill from inactivity.

cayvie and Straw have been modkilled due to inactivity. They were both Doctors.

scolapasta and Awaclus have been endgamed. They were also both Doctors.

The Carrier team of MiX and EFHW win!

Thread unlocked forever.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (Game Over)
Post by: MiX on September 11, 2020, 10:39:41 am
Oh cmon! That's uncool, I wanted to still try to win.

Sorry for ghosting just now (hi scola, I was watching you), but I couldn't gamble on cayvie being just around the corner and hammering EFHW.

I think if the game had kept going, even with the no exile today, we would've been caught. Although I tried to make the best plan for scum, Swowl dying there meant it was very hard to keep EFHW alive, and then me and Straw were in a soft conflict so there's almost no way I would've lived.

Good game until right now!
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (Game Over)
Post by: mail-mi on September 11, 2020, 10:40:40 am
So, I'm sad that it had to end like this, but I prodded cayvie and Straw twice, and in the second prod I told them they would be modkilled if they didn't post within 24 hours (which ended up giving them until deadline). Someone in the Speccy said that the purely mechanical nature of the convos D2 probably killed the game, and I think they're right. I wonder what would have happened if there had been no plan D1 and everyone was allowed to run wild.

Anyway, here's the setup:

1. MiX - Carrier
2. cayvie - Weak Doctor
3. Awaclus - Nurse
4. scolapasta - Paranoid Doctor
5. Swowl - Doctor
6. EFHW - Carrier
7. Dylan32 - Quack Doctor
8. jotheonah - Naive Doctor
9. Straw - CPR Doctor

And N1 actions:

Straw (CPR) vaccinates Dylan
Swowl (Doctor) vaccinates EFHW
Dylan (Quack) vaccinates Swowl
Joth (Naive) vaccinates Awaclus
scolapasta (paranoid) vaccinates cayvie
cayvie (weak) vaccinates MiX

MiX kills joth


Results:
Dylan dies.
EFHW is protected.
Swowl dies.
Cayvie is JK'd
Joth dies.

Awaclus becomes (random.org says:) Quack doctor.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (Game Over)
Post by: MiX on September 11, 2020, 10:44:36 am
There was a slim chance cayvie was Quack from scum's perspective, if Swowl was weak doctor, but I never thought about nurse inheriting it, huh.

I found a probably-better plan than the chain when thinking about the setup, which is just nurse claims, everyone doctors them, since we have more doctors than killers, they're unkillable. This would turn the game away from mechanics and mostly into 7v2 with an immortal IC. That would've probably helped town more than this, although what happened this game also doomed scum, mostly due to the killer doc's position and how Swowl could've been weak doctor.

Also scum QT (https://www.quicktopic.com/53/H/XBXNuMrCEcHn)
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (Game Over)
Post by: MiX on September 11, 2020, 10:46:29 am
Someone in the Speccy said that the purely mechanical nature of the convos D2 probably killed the game, and I think they're right. I wonder what would have happened if there had been no plan D1 and everyone was allowed to run wild.

Hey, I tried to make this game as mechanical as possible, so horray scum!

Can you give the link to Speccy?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (Game Over)
Post by: mail-mi on September 11, 2020, 10:49:19 am
Speccy QT: https://www.quicktopic.com/53/H/79GBvuXjBwd5W
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (Game Over)
Post by: scolapasta on September 11, 2020, 11:04:37 am
So, I'm sad that it had to end like this, but I prodded cayvie and Straw twice, and in the second prod I told them they would be modkilled if they didn't post within 24 hours (which ended up giving them until deadline). Someone in the Speccy said that the purely mechanical nature of the convos D2 probably killed the game, and I think they're right. I wonder what would have happened if there had been no plan D1 and everyone was allowed to run wild.

Yeah, bummer. But I get it. I wasn't around as much either, but I at least responded to my prod.

I do think if the game continued, we had a decent chance, with those first night results. I was planning on targeting cayvie N2, which would have protected her. So no weak doctor kill. If Straw had targeting EFHW (or Awaclus) we could have recovered, I think from the no test.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (Game Over)
Post by: EFHW on September 11, 2020, 11:15:19 am
I really thought town would test me.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (D2)
Post by: Awaclus on September 11, 2020, 11:29:16 am
The Carrier team of MiX and EFHW

I knew it!
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (Game Over)
Post by: EFHW on September 11, 2020, 12:02:20 pm
You did!
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (Game Over)
Post by: Straw on September 11, 2020, 01:23:06 pm
Wait what I thought it ended later today. Oops. My plan was vote EFHW, but not sure if I would have gone for MiX.
Also, Mail, sorry about that. I had been checking the thread and my QT, but not my messages on the forum so I thought I was fine.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (Game Over)
Post by: mail-mi on September 11, 2020, 01:29:57 pm
Wait what I thought it ended later today. Oops. My plan was vote EFHW, but not sure if I would have gone for MiX.
Also, Mail, sorry about that. I had been checking the thread and my QT, but not my messages on the forum so I thought I was fine.

That's alright, I realize now I should have posted in your QTs as well. Typically, messages in the forum are also sent to people's emails, so that's my preferred way to prod.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (Game Over)
Post by: EFHW on September 12, 2020, 12:49:58 am
So, MiX, what were those secret questions?
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (Game Over)
Post by: MiX on September 12, 2020, 08:51:37 am
So, MiX, what were those secret questions?

None. I tried really hard to think of them after I asked for the QT though  :P

It was mostly for the principle of the thing, and if I needed to ask something later it was better to ask for the QT then.
Title: Re: M131: Quarantine Mafia (Game Over)
Post by: EFHW on September 12, 2020, 09:23:08 am
So, MiX, what were those secret questions?

None. I tried really hard to think of them after I asked for the QT though  :P

It was mostly for the principle of the thing, and if I needed to ask something later it was better to ask for the QT then.

Haha. We did need qts if we wanted to ask questions during the day.