Are you going to be using the PMs standalone or all thrown together?Probably thrown together
Is this actually a thing that will fire?
I’ll need to put until unless this goes a ways into Ash’s game.
/out just in case
(I’ll /in after my V/LA)
I just play one game at a time and I'm signed up for ash's, so /tag.
You might want to make the duels shorter. In the game we just played with gladiators, duel days tended to drag a bunch.
:(
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I know, right? But until we can can play as teams, its not so good for us to play together. But this game will be awesome! I am quite certain of it!
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I know, right? But until we can can play as teams, its not so good for us to play together. But this game will be awesome! I am quite certain of it!
I believe there was an experiment like that in the beginning days of the forum. People made new accounts that combined their screennames. It was goofy.
Lol. Mafia scum allows games to have just one hydra all the time. There are lots of grumpy old men (like me) who complain and say it's not fair, and about 40% of games forbid the practice at signups. But it's something you -can- do.
Now that one of the hydras in one of my games replaced out, I'm currently participating in a game with exactly one hydra.
Are you not fond of the font?Not so much. It's a fine typewriter font, with equal spacing for every letter, but not fun to read in a computer. It certainly stands out and suppose there's a retro-futuristic feel to it, but that's not my cup of tea
Yes that is my own grumpy old man sentiment I like them banned.Lol. Mafia scum allows games to have just one hydra all the time. There are lots of grumpy old men (like me) who complain and say it's not fair, and about 40% of games forbid the practice at signups. But it's something you -can- do.
Now that one of the hydras in one of my games replaced out, I'm currently participating in a game with exactly one hydra.
Okay, noted. But I don't like it, therefore we won't do it in this game :P
I personally dislike hydra games in general. I see it as a mechanic that makes reading people harder, which is not desirable.
Yes that is my own grumpy old man sentiment I like them banned.Lol. Mafia scum allows games to have just one hydra all the time. There are lots of grumpy old men (like me) who complain and say it's not fair, and about 40% of games forbid the practice at signups. But it's something you -can- do.
Now that one of the hydras in one of my games replaced out, I'm currently participating in a game with exactly one hydra.
Okay, noted. But I don't like it, therefore we won't do it in this game :P
I personally dislike hydra games in general. I see it as a mechanic that makes reading people harder, which is not desirable.
Hey, you can't just start the day and THEN provide a votecount, now I wanna delete my post :(
Vote: ss
Hey, you can't just start the day and THEN provide a votecount, now I wanna delete my post :(
Vote: ss
Why are you voting in italics?
Vote: MiX
Hey, you can't just start the day and THEN provide a votecount, now I wanna delete my post :(
Vote: ss
Why are you voting in italics?
Vote: MiX
Votes are useless untill the duel starts.
We shouldn't do either of those things.
We shouldn't do either of those things.
I’m glad this is so obvious to you that you don’t have to explain or interrogate it. But for us plebes, mind expounding?
They should build up early wagons that can then steamroll into viable lynches. In this setup, you get 2 days of voting into 2 completely random wagons that you have to accept.
You can still RVS: I'm still "voting" Debatepro, just don't think it's useful here. Feel free to prove me wrong.
So is it a bad idea to vote yes on the duel d1?
They should build up early wagons that can then steamroll into viable lynches. In this setup, you get 2 days of voting into 2 completely random wagons that you have to accept.
You can still RVS: I'm still "voting" Debatepro, just don't think it's useful here. Feel free to prove me wrong.
If you're so sure nothing will come of it, why not actually vote debatepro?
So is it a bad idea to vote yes on the duel d1?
I think it's a bad idea if you think both combatants are town and a good idea if you think one of them is scum.
I don't think 2 days is enough to get that good of a read on someone. In D2 and on it's a real decision, but not here IMO.
vote: MiX
rarely have I seen someone say so many antitown things so quickly
I don't think this is how scum!MiX plays day one in this setup. The votes-that-aren't-really votes thing especially is something that seems so scummy that scum wouldn't do it.
Fun flavor. Very funny flavor. Even better setup. Good reads early in the day will be important (for D2 and on) which is something I struggle at. RVS is essencially worthless because we should always accept the first duel. I look forward to say nothing for 2 days.
Vote: Debatepro
I don't think this is how scum!MiX plays day one in this setup. The votes-that-aren't-really votes thing especially is something that seems so scummy that scum wouldn't do it.
I don't think this is how scum!MiX plays day one in this setup. The votes-that-aren't-really votes thing especially is something that seems so scummy that scum wouldn't do it.
I think that scum!mix is self-aware enough to know that this is how town!mix would probably open things up and emulate it. Nothing he's said so far screams town to me
vote: mix
We shouldn't do either of those things.
I’m glad this is so obvious to you that you don’t have to explain or interrogate it. But for us plebes, mind expounding?
That's actually good discussion, which I don't do. Feel free to talk about it, I think my stance's just the general default stance about the setup and I don't really have arguments for or against it.
I don't think this is how scum!MiX plays day one in this setup. The votes-that-aren't-really votes thing especially is something that seems so scummy that scum wouldn't do it.
I think that scum!mix is self-aware enough to know that this is how town!mix would probably open things up and emulate it. Nothing he's said so far screams town to me
vote: mix
TOWN
But I think there's one thing I wouldn't do:We shouldn't do either of those things.
I’m glad this is so obvious to you that you don’t have to explain or interrogate it. But for us plebes, mind expounding?
That's actually good discussion, which I don't do. Feel free to talk about it, I think my stance's just the general default stance about the setup and I don't really have arguments for or against it.
I would've discussed the setup N0 with my buddies so I would have some arguments supporting my thinking. I actually have none because I didn't think about it at all (not even now, maybe I should).
Also I guess people are voting, so whatever.
Vote: Glooble
Hi. Not totally caught up, but MiX's ideas are almost the exact opposite of mine. I'll have more time to elaborate later.
I don't think this is how scum!MiX plays day one in this setup. The votes-that-aren't-really votes thing especially is something that seems so scummy that scum wouldn't do it.
I think that scum!mix is self-aware enough to know that this is how town!mix would probably open things up and emulate it. Nothing he's said so far screams town to me
vote: mix
Vote: MiXThe votes for dual/no dual are secret though
I am pro-duel. Wildly pro-duel! We should all vote yes and if you vote against it I will advocate your lynch.
I'm anti-duel.It does potentially give us a one shot PR though, which is good
We're in a setup with 10 town players and 3 scum players.
The duel is between two randomly chosen players.
So, this is a conditional probability which I can never remember how to do...
There's a 10/13 (76.9%) chance the first random pick is town. If they are, there's a 9/12 (75%) the second one is town.
So there's a 57.6% chance a random selection is town vs town.
We can use the same math reversed (3/13 x 2/12) to figure out the probability of scum vs scum (3.8%), which means the remaining 39.6% of the time it'll be scum vs town.)
So, knowing nothing else about the duellers, that means voting for the duel is voting for a 57% chance of a guaranteed mislynch and a 40% chance of a 50/50. Those do not seem like good odds.
TL;DR I'm only going to vote for the duel if I already think one of the selected players is scum.
I'm neither pro-duel nor anti-duel. I will vote for a duel if I think it has a reasonably good chance of containing scum, and I will vote against a duel if it's more likely to me that both players are town. I'm not sure I see the advantage of having a default preference for duel or no duel.
Welcome back Robz! Missed you. You are pro-duel but you're voting MiX who is also pro-duel I think. why?
I'm anti-duel.
We're in a setup with 10 town players and 3 scum players.
The duel is between two randomly chosen players.
So, this is a conditional probability which I can never remember how to do...
There's a 10/13 (76.9%) chance the first random pick is town. If they are, there's a 9/12 (75%) the second one is town.
So there's a 57.6% chance a random selection is town vs town.
We can use the same math reversed (3/13 x 2/12) to figure out the probability of scum vs scum (3.8%), which means the remaining 39.6% of the time it'll be scum vs town.)
So, knowing nothing else about the duellers, that means voting for the duel is voting for a 57% chance of a guaranteed mislynch and a 40% chance of a 50/50. Those do not seem like good odds.
TL;DR I'm only going to vote for the duel if I already think one of the selected players is scum.
I saw robz on TV a few weeks ago. At least, I think it was him.
vote: robz
I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.
Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful.
I will say, if I were scum, I would be pro-duel. Wildly pro-duel.
vote: Robz
I'm anti-duel.
We're in a setup with 10 town players and 3 scum players.
The duel is between two randomly chosen players.
So, this is a conditional probability which I can never remember how to do...
There's a 10/13 (76.9%) chance the first random pick is town. If they are, there's a 9/12 (75%) the second one is town.
So there's a 57.6% chance a random selection is town vs town.
We can use the same math reversed (3/13 x 2/12) to figure out the probability of scum vs scum (3.8%), which means the remaining 39.6% of the time it'll be scum vs town.)
So, knowing nothing else about the duellers, that means voting for the duel is voting for a 57% chance of a guaranteed mislynch and a 40% chance of a 50/50. Those do not seem like good odds.
TL;DR I'm only going to vote for the duel if I already think one of the selected players is scum.
OTOH, the nice thing about the duel is it limits us to two possible wagons that scum had no role in choosing which is attractive.
OTOH, the nice thing about the duel is it limits us to two possible wagons that scum had no role in choosing which is attractive.
They do have a role in choosing them, though, since they're a three person voting block when we're voting on the duel itself
OTOH, the nice thing about the duel is it limits us to two possible wagons that scum had no role in choosing which is attractive.
They do have a role in choosing them, though, since they're a three person voting block when we're voting on the duel itself
That's true. Which I suppose is a good argument for an "always duel" rule although it would be pretty unenforceable even if we did.
Vote: MiX
I am pro-duel. Wildly pro-duel! We should all vote yes and if you vote against it I will advocate your lynch.
Nice to be back in a game, not that I have enough time for it, but oh well!
I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.
Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful.
I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.
Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful.
I don't think that anyone is saying we should never duel, but some people seem to be saying we should always duel, which I think is not good. We can get information out of which duels pass and which ones fail, which we lose if town just always votes yes.
I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.
Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful.
I don't think that anyone is saying we should never duel, but some people seem to be saying we should always duel, which I think is not good. We can get information out of which duels pass and which ones fail, which we lose if town just always votes yes.
When was the last time you saw town agree to something D1?
I've made a plan about duels. It's bad, inconsequential and will most likely be a waste of time. Still, it makes my opening posts have purpose so I'm proud of it.
I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.
Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful.
I don't think that anyone is saying we should never duel, but some people seem to be saying we should always duel, which I think is not good. We can get information out of which duels pass and which ones fail, which we lose if town just always votes yes.
When was the last time you saw town agree to something D1?
I've made a plan about duels. It's bad, inconsequential and will most likely be a waste of time. Still, it makes my opening posts have purpose so I'm proud of it.
So proposing an anti-town plan is fine, because people aren't going to do it anyway?
We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else
We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else
Stances about dueling on the average pairing is more important than dueling. But I am pro-dueling; as Robz said, it skips all the D1 scrambling and if we were ever going to lynch scum D1 then surely in 6 days we can determine which of 2 players is scum right? So in joth's probabilities (which are wrong, still a good baseline) we should lynch scum about...40% of the time. Because numbers are fun. And I think those are good odds, at least for D1.
I mean, we would essentially be committing to a random lynch, in exchange for maybe getting a PR, and the D1 lynch is usually pretty random anyway
But it feels like it's giving up a lot of town agency, since the lynch is likely to be a lot less informative, and if we think that a lot of town is dueling just to duel, then we don't even get info from the fact that the duel passed
So I think I'm back where I started, which is "vote for the duel based on reads, not just because"
I mean, we would essentially be committing to a random lynch, in exchange for maybe getting a PR, and the D1 lynch is usually pretty random anyway
But it feels like it's giving up a lot of town agency, since the lynch is likely to be a lot less informative, and if we think that a lot of town is dueling just to duel, then we don't even get info from the fact that the duel passed
So I think I'm back where I started, which is "vote for the duel based on reads, not just because"
Regardless of reads a duel day is less productive than a real day because there's less things town can do. So that doesn't truly follow as perfectly as you're saying.
And I was assuming we always win on town vs scum duels, because otherwise as you said it's same chance as random lynching.
I like PRs/focus on specific wagons, but I think without the PR it would be anti-town to duel at all. I think everyone should have a base stance on dueling and then change that according to your reads on whoever's being dueled. That should be the best.
So wait, are you against always dueling now? And why on earth would you assume we would always win on town vs. scum?
So wait, are you against always dueling now? And why on earth would you assume we would always win on town vs. scum?
I think the PR part makes it better (because the downside's really small IMO) and I assumed that because otherwise it would just be same probability as random lynching.
Hey everyone btw, my first game hereWelcome back Robz! Missed you. You are pro-duel but you're voting MiX who is also pro-duel I think. why?
You're right, I misread his "I am against both of those things" post.
I will instead vote for you, due to your stated anti-duel position. Vote: Jotheonah
Hold on, who is this 0Ix person? What's your deal?Hey. I'm from the ToS forums and a Dutch forum, and I met silver during the tournament thingy on MU so I joined his game
Hold on, who is this 0Ix person? What's your deal?Hey. I'm from the ToS forums and a Dutch forum, and I met silver during the tournament thingy on MU so I joined his game
So wait, are you against always dueling now? And why on earth would you assume we would always win on town vs. scum?
I think the PR part makes it better (because the downside's really small IMO) and I assumed that because otherwise it would just be same probability as random lynching.
That makes zero sense
if we were ever going to lynch scum D1 then surely in 6 days we can determine which of 2 players is scum right?
Hey everyone btw, my first game hereWelcome back Robz! Missed you. You are pro-duel but you're voting MiX who is also pro-duel I think. why?
You're right, I misread his "I am against both of those things" post.
I will instead vote for you, due to your stated anti-duel position. Vote: Jotheonah
Why would being anti-duel be scummy..? He explained clearly why and I must say, it'd good reasoning
Hold on, who is this 0Ix person? What's your deal?Hey. I'm from the ToS forums and a Dutch forum, and I met silver during the tournament thingy on MU so I joined his game
So wait, are you against always dueling now? And why on earth would you assume we would always win on town vs. scum?
I think the PR part makes it better (because the downside's really small IMO) and I assumed that because otherwise it would just be same probability as random lynching.
That makes zero senseif we were ever going to lynch scum D1 then surely in 6 days we can determine which of 2 players is scum right?
Might be inconsistent, but...eh. Basically, if we're assuming we can do better than random lynching in a given D1, then we can do better than a 50/50 in a town vs scum duel, right? 100% scum lynch might be overkill, but I'm not sure what percentage's best.
Okay so as usual I don't find MiX scummy at all for his brash and un-thought out accept all duels plan. I think it was either not very thought out or purposefully not very thought out, either way not alignment indicative.
I don't think a rule of accepting duels or not accepting duels is good at all. I strongly think players should decide on their own based on the likelihood of the players up for the duel containing scum. Also we should way approving duels gives us a power which tips the scales towards dueling. With day one reads being weak I think that is also a factor that points towards accepting the duel but if I am strongly town reading both players going into the duel i'm still not accepting it. I think that should be how we treat duels, Its like a forced read check and wagon lock so we dont get to end of day having and qucklynching.
Town read on Joth for the math, people overestimate scum doing that for towncred.
So is it a bad idea to vote yes on the duel d1?
I saw robz on TV a few weeks ago. At least, I think it was him.
vote: robz
I'm only going to vote yes on the duel today if it involves one of the fools wanting to duel so badly.
Okay so as usual I don't find MiX scummy at all for his brash and un-thought out accept all duels plan. I think it was either not very thought out or purposefully not very thought out, either way not alignment indicative.
I don't think a rule of accepting duels or not accepting duels is good at all. I strongly think players should decide on their own based on the likelihood of the players up for the duel containing scum. Also we should way approving duels gives us a power which tips the scales towards dueling. With day one reads being weak I think that is also a factor that points towards accepting the duel but if I am strongly town reading both players going into the duel i'm still not accepting it. I think that should be how we treat duels, Its like a forced read check and wagon lock so we dont get to end of day having and qucklynching.
Town read on Joth for the math, people overestimate scum doing that for towncred.
That's basically a summation of the so-called "anti-duel" position
Okay so as usual I don't find MiX scummy at all for his brash and un-thought out accept all duels plan. I think it was either not very thought out or purposefully not very thought out, either way not alignment indicative.
I don't think a rule of accepting duels or not accepting duels is good at all. I strongly think players should decide on their own based on the likelihood of the players up for the duel containing scum. Also we should way approving duels gives us a power which tips the scales towards dueling. With day one reads being weak I think that is also a factor that points towards accepting the duel but if I am strongly town reading both players going into the duel i'm still not accepting it. I think that should be how we treat duels, Its like a forced read check and wagon lock so we dont get to end of day having and qucklynching.
Town read on Joth for the math, people overestimate scum doing that for towncred.
That's basically a summation of the so-called "anti-duel" position
What is Joth's math or my post?
I am neither pro or anti duel. Joth math points out that there is a 40% chance duels include scum, I think that is relatively counterbalanced by the fact that dueling provides a 76%(10/13) or 84%(11/13) of giving town a one shot pr. My opinion is that these two stats mean dueling is a bit coinflippy if we don't apply reads. If we actively chose to vote based on our reads duels can provide a solid benefit.
Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.
I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.
At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.
Assuming that silverspawn has picked somewhat reasonable PRs, it should be sometimes a good idea to duel and sometimes a bad idea, depending on who the randomly picked players turn out to be. If it was always correct to duel, why on earth would it be optional?
Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.
I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.
At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.
I think it's safe to assume scum will just vote yes on duels they're not in and no ok duels they are in
Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.
I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.
At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.
Assuming that silverspawn has picked somewhat reasonable PRs, it should be sometimes a good idea to duel and sometimes a bad idea, depending on who the randomly picked players turn out to be. If it was always correct to duel, why on earth would it be optional?Because scum and town have different agendas, which means the outcome of the vote contains information about the two duelers. This is another counter argument to my always vote no plan, since my doing that would dilute the information that we could infer from the result.
silver, will we learn the for and against breakdown of the votes, or just the result?
OTOH, the nice thing about the duel is it limits us to two possible wagons that scum had no role in choosing which is attractive.
They do have a role in choosing them, though, since they're a three person voting block when we're voting on the duel itself
That's true. Which I suppose is a good argument for an "always duel" rule although it would be pretty unenforceable even if we did.
I don't think I'm following your line of thought there
It doesn't seem that obvious to me.silver, will we learn the for and against breakdown of the votes, or just the result?
I think the answer is obviously just the result because it says we vote privately in our qt. I think you know that and asking is scummy.
silver, will we learn the for and against breakdown of the votes, or just the result?
silver, will we learn the for and against breakdown of the votes, or just the result?
You will only learn whether or not the duel happens.
Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.
I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.
At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.
Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.
silver, will we learn the for and against breakdown of the votes, or just the result?
I think the answer is obviously just the result because it says we vote privately in our qt. I think you know that and asking is scummy.
Not following you heresilver, will we learn the for and against breakdown of the votes, or just the result?
I think the answer is obviously just the result because it says we vote privately in our qt. I think you know that and asking is scummy.
I agree with MCMC.
So MCMC is probably skum and EFHW is either way.
We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing elseAgreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs
Not following you heresilver, will we learn the for and against breakdown of the votes, or just the result?
I think the answer is obviously just the result because it says we vote privately in our qt. I think you know that and asking is scummy.
I agree with MCMC.
So MCMC is probably skum and EFHW is either way.
We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else
We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing elseAgreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs
If we dual D1 then we get to see how it works and how people play during the duelWe should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing else
Robz hates day 1s
Robz rolls skum
Robz plays meta.
This is a bad idea.
What D1 info? Every game I play we just pick random wagons, and near the deadline we just panic and kill the easiest person to get a lynch forWe should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing elseAgreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs
Also skummy.
Duel Day 1 takes away Day 1 info. Horrible idea.
What D1 info? Every game I play we just pick random wagons, and near the deadline we just panic and kill the easiest person to get a lynch for
ThisWhat D1 info? Every game I play we just pick random wagons, and near the deadline we just panic and kill the easiest person to get a lynch for
The D1 info that results in D2 not being "just pick random wagons, and near the deadline we just panic and kill the easiest person to get a lynch for".
3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.
Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.
I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.
At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.
Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.
The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.
1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.
2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting
3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.
Me neitherTurns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.
I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.
At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.
Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.
The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.
1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.
2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting
3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.
Actually I don't understand anything about this post. I fail to see how the non town vs town scenarios also drag on more than the average game.
Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.
I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.
At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.
Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.
The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.
1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.
2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting
3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.
We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing elseAgreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs
vote: DatSwan
Hard to articulate exactly why but I’m getting a strong scum vibe off of his analysis posts. I’m trying to trust my gut more.
vote: DatSwan
Hard to articulate exactly why but I’m getting a strong scum vibe off of his analysis posts. I’m trying to trust my gut more.
Vote Count 1.2
Robz888 (2): jotheonah, pubby
jotheonah (1): Robz888
pubby (1): MiX
MiX (3): Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302
Not Voting (7): DatSwan, e, mcmcsalot, Glooble, Debatepro, 0Ix, EFHW
With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 1 ends at Sep 1, 06:30 forum time. That is in 24h 14m.
Vote: PubbySo is it a bad idea to vote yes on the duel d1?I saw robz on TV a few weeks ago. At least, I think it was him.
vote: robzI'm only going to vote yes on the duel today if it involves one of the fools wanting to duel so badly.
Three posts spaced very evenly throughout the day where decent conversations have been had inbetween and yet he doesn't participate in the conversation at all.
Poses a question instead of giving his own opinion (could be trying to start conversations but as a hard stance had already been taken by someone the pro town approach is to disect that stance not ask the group)
Then really doesn't take his question anywhere and posts a throwaway comment as well as a useless vote.
Then takes a hard stance on duel voting but gives a very jokey not serious reason.
Overall very anti town and engaged while still trying.
... [1] For the rest of the day, only votes for the two dueling players are valid. All other votes (including a no-lynch vote) will have no effect. At the end of the day, the player with more votes is lynched (if it is a tie, a virtual coin is flipped). Either one may still be lynched earlier via majority vote.
We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing elseAgreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs
We need to run some pure vanilla games so this town stops being so dependent on PRs.
All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.
But what is this plurality thing everyone’s talking about? I don’t see it in the setup info.
Correct math:
chance of town v town: 49.4%
Chance of town v scum: 47.4%
Chance of scum v scum: 3.2%
That math is a bit better (since we’re better than even odds to have a chance of lynching scum, albeit just barely) but still favors scum I think.
In another topic, I’m locked in a pitched battle between my old “always suspect Robz day 1” meta and my new “always suspect MiX day 1” meta.
joth, this is the plurality thing everyone's talking about:
... [1] For the rest of the day, only votes for the two dueling players are valid. All other votes (including a no-lynch vote) will have no effect. At the end of the day, the player with more votes is lynched (if it is a tie, a virtual coin is flipped). Either one may still be lynched earlier via majority vote.
All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.
We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing elseAgreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs
We need to run some pure vanilla games so this town stops being so dependent on PRs.
This is a (semi) pure vanilla game, with the option of not being bored in some days.All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.
But what is this plurality thing everyone’s talking about? I don’t see it in the setup info.
Correct math:
chance of town v town: 49.4%
Chance of town v scum: 47.4%
Chance of scum v scum: 3.2%
That math is a bit better (since we’re better than even odds to have a chance of lynching scum, albeit just barely) but still favors scum I think.
I'm incredibly surprised that adding town makes those odds better for town. Are you sure this is true?
Also this is a townslip: he removed himself from the player list and thus removed 1 town
All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.
Also this is a townslip: he removed himself from the player list and thus removed 1 town.
But I think the odds he fakes this are above 1% so maybe it's just a very towny thing to do instead of a slip.
All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.
Also this is a townslip: he removed himself from the player list and thus removed 1 town.
But I think the odds he fakes this are above 1% so maybe it's just a very towny thing to do instead of a slip.
It’s simpler than that. I just skipped the JK when I was looking at the setup post because it didn’t have a number next to it.
vote: DatSwan
Hard to articulate exactly why but I’m getting a strong scum vibe off of his analysis posts. I’m trying to trust my gut more.
Please try, do you disagree with his analysis? Do you think the analysis is pushing us in a direction? Do you think the analysis is redundant? Do you think town!swan is unlikely to make analysis like that? Do you think scum!swan benefits from that analysis post?
Day 1 Duel: It is 100%, almost unarguably, wrong to go for the duel on Day 1.
I am not saying the duel concept is bad. For every negative there is a potential positive. Examples:
a) Items - Town could get a PR, or skum could get the fake claim.
b) % chance vs control vs plurality - it would seem the % chance of having a skum selected day 1 is fairly similar to randomly choosing a player to lynch day 1. The difference is that it does take some control away from skum in the duel setting. Without the duel we need 8 to lynch, with the duel it is just majority. However, on day one we assume we will lynch town... that does not change just because there is a duel. So it gives skum less control over keeping one of their own alive, but only if one of their own is selected... if it is TownvTown... it is all bad news.
---This is the important one---
c) Information - When we isolate the field to 2 players the info we have to look back on is EXTREMELY LIMITED. If we roll SkumVTown and go to lynch it could prove useful. However, that cannot be an expectation. If the mod selects player A and player B to duel and we have to choose between them... we can still just say no and have the chance at lynching player A or Player B. The argument against would be to put skum in a tough spot with plurality and take the duel to force a lynch... but it is day one... so the only people that actually know anything are skum.
Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.
I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.
At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.
Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.
The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.
1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.
2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting
3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.
Vote Count 1.2
Robz888 (2): jotheonah, pubby
jotheonah (1): Robz888
pubby (1): MiX
MiX (3): Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302
Not Voting (7): DatSwan, e, mcmcsalot, Glooble, Debatepro, 0Ix, EFHW
With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 1 ends at Sep 1, 06:30 forum time. That is in 24h 14m.
I am voting Pubby
All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.
Also this is a townslip: he removed himself from the player list and thus removed 1 town.
But I think the odds he fakes this are above 1% so maybe it's just a very towny thing to do instead of a slip.
It’s simpler than that. I just skipped the JK when I was looking at the setup post because it didn’t have a number next to it.
Yea I did that in a few of my attempts at odds calculations, then I gave up. The fact that MiX things this is a townslip is hilarious. MiX how long do you think about your posts before posting them?
We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing elseAgreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs
We need to run some pure vanilla games so this town stops being so dependent on PRs.
This is a (semi) pure vanilla game, with the option of not being bored in some days.All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.
But what is this plurality thing everyone’s talking about? I don’t see it in the setup info.
Correct math:
chance of town v town: 49.4%
Chance of town v scum: 47.4%
Chance of scum v scum: 3.2%
That math is a bit better (since we’re better than even odds to have a chance of lynching scum, albeit just barely) but still favors scum I think.
I'm incredibly surprised that adding town makes those odds better for town. Are you sure this is true?
Well no. I’m an English major. Someone mathy should check my math. It’s fairly straightforward conditional probability. Oh shoot, no I did it wrong again.
Town v town: 60.4%
Town v scum: 36.4%
Scum v scum: 3.2%
I hope everyone has a chance to talk in these 2 IRL days before the duel and get some solid town and scum reads. I'm mostly talking to Debatepro, he hasn't talked yet and would be pretty cool if he said, well, something.
I would also like everyone's generic stances on dueling, whether for or against, they'll be useful.
3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.
Stop. Playing. Your. Meta. Every. Single. Game.
Vote: Swan, pubby's so scum here I'm probably never moving this vote untill duel starts.
I hope everyone has a chance to talk in these 2 IRL days before the duel and get some solid town and scum reads. I'm mostly talking to Debatepro, he hasn't talked yet and would be pretty cool if he said, well, something.
I would also like everyone's generic stances on dueling, whether for or against, they'll be useful.
Ugh you are so bad at this. Yes, useful for scum to know who is an isn't planning on voting for the duel. How about people vote for the duel if they want the duel and don't if they don't end of story. Once we see what has happened (duel or no duel) we can go from there...
3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.
Stop. Playing. Your. Meta. Every. Single. Game.
Vote: Swan, pubby's so scum here I'm probably never moving this vote untill duel starts.
You know,there comes a point when a player is just playing the game, then gets accused of playing up their meta. I.e. how they always play.
I should just try to act like someone else every game I play in, that way I never have a meta.
I hope everyone has a chance to talk in these 2 IRL days before the duel and get some solid town and scum reads. I'm mostly talking to Debatepro, he hasn't talked yet and would be pretty cool if he said, well, something.
I would also like everyone's generic stances on dueling, whether for or against, they'll be useful.
Ugh you are so bad at this. Yes, useful for scum to know who is an isn't planning on voting for the duel. How about people vote for the duel if they want the duel and don't if they don't end of story. Once we see what has happened (duel or no duel) we can go from there...
But then scum can change their opinion after voting.
I hope everyone has a chance to talk in these 2 IRL days before the duel and get some solid town and scum reads. I'm mostly talking to Debatepro, he hasn't talked yet and would be pretty cool if he said, well, something.
I would also like everyone's generic stances on dueling, whether for or against, they'll be useful.
Ugh you are so bad at this. Yes, useful for scum to know who is an isn't planning on voting for the duel. How about people vote for the duel if they want the duel and don't if they don't end of story. Once we see what has happened (duel or no duel) we can go from there...
But then scum can change their opinion after voting.3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.
Stop. Playing. Your. Meta. Every. Single. Game.
Vote: Swan, pubby's so scum here I'm probably never moving this vote untill duel starts.
You know,there comes a point when a player is just playing the game, then gets accused of playing up their meta. I.e. how they always play.
I should just try to act like someone else every game I play in, that way I never have a meta.
Yeah I then realized that...but then I felt like scumreading that part for a different reason so I didn't feel like pointing it out.
3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.
Stop. Playing. Your. Meta. Every. Single. Game.
Vote: Swan, pubby's so scum here I'm probably never moving this vote untill duel starts.
3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.
Stop. Playing. Your. Meta. Every. Single. Game.
Vote: Swan, pubby's so scum here I'm probably never moving this vote untill duel starts.
I don’t know what this is referring to.
I honestly don’t care about the percentages, because we just obviously should duel no matter what.Exactly. Because even with the percentages, it doesn't take into account the benefit of getting a PR.
There's only 4 PRs available from duels. If you think the game is going 5+ days, it's not critical to get a duel PR n1. They get better later in the game anyway.
The first duel is going to have really bad targets too so I don't see what you mean. :P
IMO the case (or lack thereof) against me is great fun while everyone waits for the duel to start.
I often think good (early) PR luck is town’s best chance to win, so that too makes me pro duel.
I often think good (early) PR luck is town’s best chance to win, so that too makes me pro duel.
All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.
But what is this plurality thing everyone’s talking about? I don’t see it in the setup info.
Correct math:
chance of town v town: 49.4%
Chance of town v scum: 47.4%
Chance of scum v scum: 3.2%
That math is a bit better (since we’re better than even odds to have a chance of lynching scum, albeit just barely) but still favors scum I think.
All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.
But what is this plurality thing everyone’s talking about? I don’t see it in the setup info.
Correct math:
chance of town v town: 49.4%
Chance of town v scum: 47.4%
Chance of scum v scum: 3.2%
That math is a bit better (since we’re better than even odds to have a chance of lynching scum, albeit just barely) but still favors scum I think.
Is this math accurate? I will be the first to concede my math skills vs others on this forum, but when I run it I get more like...
TvT = 64%
TvS = 32%
SvS = 4%
Me neitherTurns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.
I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.
At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.
Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.
The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.
1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.
2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting
3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.
Actually I don't understand anything about this post. I fail to see how the non town vs town scenarios also drag on more than the average game.
And scum vs scum will just masquerade out like town vs town I guess?
Let's try unexplained votes.So you just picked him at random? Are you expecting people to join?
Vote: Glooble
I always try to build these airtight cases and am usually wrong. Let's see how this works without a case
Hi. Not totally caught up, but MiX's ideas are almost the exact opposite of mine. I'll have more time to elaborate later.MiX's ideas
$5 Action
You may trash a Treasure from your hand. Gain a Treasure to your hand costing up to $3 less than it.
Hi. Not totally caught up, but MiX's ideas are almost the exact opposite of mine. I'll have more time to elaborate later.MiX's ideas
$5 Action
You may trash a Treasure from your hand. Gain a Treasure to your hand costing up to $3 less than it.
This is the funniest mafia post i've ever read! It should be preserved for future generations.
@All - Apologies WCD and I bought another house, so consequently we have to sell our current home and downsize to half the square footage. I'll be better going forward.
Odds of me doing anything MiX says is near zero.
BTW I realized something. Whoever is getting wagoned at the time of the duel has incentive to vote for the duel in order to save themselves for a day. This incentive could be pretty strong - I mean I only had 4 votes on me but I sure thought about it.
I'm very much in favor of everyone revealing how they voted. I would especially like to know e's vote given that he was in the "always duel" camp
I'm very much in favor of everyone revealing how they voted. I would especially like to know e's vote given that he was in the "always duel" camp
I voted yes. I was looking forward to dueling, and lynching, you.
We would have had so much fun. Probably want the smartest vote and town saved me from myself, but I voted yes to the duel
I'm very much in favor of everyone revealing how they voted. I would especially like to know e's vote given that he was in the "always duel" camp
I'm very much in favor of everyone revealing how they voted. I would especially like to know e's vote given that he was in the "always duel" camp
So you voted no? Takes notes
Do you think Robz will be here soon? Also what do you think of my order?
PPE: Fascinating. Takes more notes Truly a great duel.
Claiming votes is stupid and we shouldn't do it. Scum can just fakeclaim they voted for the outcome that went through so we don't learn anything useful from it, but scum does.
Claiming votes is stupid and we shouldn't do it. Scum can just fakeclaim they voted for the outcome that went through so we don't learn anything useful from it, but scum does.If they fakeclaim, the numbers might not add up and POE becomes a thing. Claiming discourages them from trying scummy stuff.
I'm not sure why mcmc thinks it's scummy to vote yes for a duel you are in, but it is surprising. ADK is always very towny, regardless of alignment. Did you think you could win?I'm very much in favor of everyone revealing how they voted. I would especially like to know e's vote given that he was in the "always duel" camp
I voted yes. I was looking forward to dueling, and lynching, you.
We would have had so much fun. Probably want the smartest vote and town saved me from myself, but I voted yes to the duel
Let's try unexplained votes.So you just picked him at random? Are you expecting people to join?
Vote: Glooble
I always try to build these airtight cases and am usually wrong. Let's see how this works without a case
Why was I so high on your list, MiX?
MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default
Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead
MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default
Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead
MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default
Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead
Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.
Meh. That's such a non-post.
MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default
Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead
Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.
Meh. That's such a non-post.
MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default
Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead
Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.
Meh. That's such a non-post.
I wasn’t calling you scummy for it. Sorry if it came off that way. I was just being flip.
Claiming votes is stupid and we shouldn't do it. Scum can just fakeclaim they voted for the outcome that went through so we don't learn anything useful from it, but scum does.If they fakeclaim, the numbers might not add up and POE becomes a thing. Claiming discourages them from trying scummy stuff.
Claiming votes is stupid and we shouldn't do it. Scum can just fakeclaim they voted for the outcome that went through so we don't learn anything useful from it, but scum does.If they fakeclaim, the numbers might not add up and POE becomes a thing. Claiming discourages them from trying scummy stuff.
What numbers? We only know that the majority of people voted no. No is a safe fake claim.
Claiming votes is stupid and we shouldn't do it. Scum can just fakeclaim they voted for the outcome that went through so we don't learn anything useful from it, but scum does.If they fakeclaim, the numbers might not add up and POE becomes a thing. Claiming discourages them from trying scummy stuff.
What numbers? We only know that the majority of people voted no. No is a safe fake claim.
What’s the benefit of not claiming?
MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default
Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead
Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.
Meh. That's such a non-post.
MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default
Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead
Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.
Meh. That's such a non-post.
Hey now, that is totally not true. I don't lose the duel every time. I guess I do have a more abrasive personality than ADK, but still
Also take this into account all you meta people: I lynched myself D1 once because I thought it was the best thing for town.
Was I right? I don't know. But we did win that game
Sadly I can't look into the future and see what would happen in 6 days, so your guess is as good as mine. I wasn't ready to lynch you if I thought ADK was townier than you, and that's enough for me to say no to the duel.
Sadly I can't look into the future and see what would happen in 6 days, so your guess is as good as mine. I wasn't ready to lynch you if I thought ADK was townier than you, and that's enough for me to say no to the duel.
I will put you in the "never duel" column
For all of you who are sold on ADK being town and assume I lose the duel, you don't trust ADK with a PR?
Sadly I can't look into the future and see what would happen in 6 days, so your guess is as good as mine. I wasn't ready to lynch you if I thought ADK was townier than you, and that's enough for me to say no to the duel.
I will put you in the "never duel" column
If you think that duel would pass without me you're wrong. You're right that I chickened out tho. Didn't expect ADK, bah.For all of you who are sold on ADK being town and assume I lose the duel, you don't trust ADK with a PR?
The PR is randomly assigned. Yeeeeeah.
It wouldn't be an issue in every case, but could become an issue if the numbers for and against were almost equal and the scum wants to lie about their vote.Claiming votes is stupid and we shouldn't do it. Scum can just fakeclaim they voted for the outcome that went through so we don't learn anything useful from it, but scum does.If they fakeclaim, the numbers might not add up and POE becomes a thing. Claiming discourages them from trying scummy stuff.
What numbers? We only know that the majority of people voted no. No is a safe fake claim.
@EFHW to me voting for a duel you are in looks to me like someone trying very hard to look unconcerned and townySeems like e is trying to say that a town:town duel is worth it because of the pr. I don't agree with that, though. The informational cost is high, and the pr could end up being wasted if a scum player is randomly chosen, and we don't know how good the prs are.
It wouldn't be an issue in every case, but could become an issue if the numbers for and against were almost equal and the scum wants to lie about their vote.
I firmly believe that dueling for PRs is a valid strategy.
For all of you who are sold on ADK being town and assume I lose the duel, you don't trust ADK with a PR?
D1 lynch now gives us no benefit unless we catch scum. D1 duel gives us a PR that we can use.
Also, the information gained from no duel is significantly less because so many people claimed to be in the "never duel D1" camp. Assume more people expressed approval of a D1 duel and it doesn't happen. Then we learn something. Or people expressed no duel and then a duel happens. Again, we learn something.
Here we learned that people didn't want to duel, and there was no duel.
Exciting
Claiming votes is stupid and we shouldn't do it. Scum can just fakeclaim they voted for the outcome that went through so we don't learn anything useful from it, but scum does.If they fakeclaim, the numbers might not add up and POE becomes a thing. Claiming discourages them from trying scummy stuff.
What numbers? We only know that the majority of people voted no. No is a safe fake claim.
What’s the benefit of not claiming?
It wouldn't be an issue in every case, but could become an issue if the numbers for and against were almost equal and the scum wants to lie about their vote.
It's only an issue if a scummy vote is the majority, which it shouldn't ever be.
It wouldn't be an issue in every case, but could become an issue if the numbers for and against were almost equal and the scum wants to lie about their vote.
It's only an issue if a scummy vote is the majority, which it shouldn't ever be.
It's really easy to come up with this scenario: Two townies are dueled, 5 town vote no, 3 town vote yes, 2 scum vote yes. Now when everyone claims you'll realized that scum wanted the duel to pass, which means it's not two scum. This is why it's useful, these scenarios can happen. Also you'll realize that no matter what split scum makes, you'll end up in conflicts. Thus claiming votes is good.
It wouldn't be an issue in every case, but could become an issue if the numbers for and against were almost equal and the scum wants to lie about their vote.
It's only an issue if a scummy vote is the majority, which it shouldn't ever be.
It's really easy to come up with this scenario: Two townies are dueled, 5 town vote no, 3 town vote yes, 2 scum vote yes. Now when everyone claims you'll realized that scum wanted the duel to pass, which means it's not two scum. This is why it's useful, these scenarios can happen. Also you'll realize that no matter what split scum makes, you'll end up in conflicts. Thus claiming votes is good.
What you mean is this scenario: Two townies are dueled, 5 people vote no, 5 people vote yes. Now when everyone claims you'll have no way of telling the two apart.
I think knowing how everyone voted will be useful later when we have flips. So we might as well force people to commit to an answer now?
I'm not sure why mcmc thinks it's scummy to vote yes for a duel you are in, but it is surprising. ADK is always very towny, regardless of alignment. Did you think you could win?I'm very much in favor of everyone revealing how they voted. I would especially like to know e's vote given that he was in the "always duel" camp
I voted yes. I was looking forward to dueling, and lynching, you.
We would have had so much fun. Probably want the smartest vote and town saved me from myself, but I voted yes to the duel
I firmly believe that dueling for PRs is a valid strategy.Most sensible post today I think. And exactly why I (unsurprisingly) vote for the duel.
For all of you who are sold on ADK being town and assume I lose the duel, you don't trust ADK with a PR?
D1 lynch now gives us no benefit unless we catch scum. D1 duel gives us a PR that we can use.
Also, the information gained from no duel is significantly less because so many people claimed to be in the "never duel D1" camp. Assume more people expressed approval of a D1 duel and it doesn't happen. Then we learn something. Or people expressed no duel and then a duel happens. Again, we learn something.
Here we learned that people didn't want to duel, and there was no duel.
Exciting
Also for now I want to Vote: ADK
My theory being that if there's a duel with a scum on it, then that's 50/50 that the scum does, compared to 3/14 with no duel
So in my mind, the no duel makes it slightly more likely that one of the duellers were scum. And as I'm agreeing more with the e logic, ADK seems like a better vote
7/7 split would default to no duel, right?
7/7 split would default to no duel, right?
Ties are duel.
Also for now I want to Vote: ADK
My theory being that if there's a duel with a scum on it, then that's 50/50 that the scum does, compared to 3/14 with no duel
So in my mind, the no duel makes it slightly more likely that one of the duellers were scum. And as I'm agreeing more with the e logic, ADK seems like a better vote
Also for now I want to Vote: ADK
My theory being that if there's a duel with a scum on it, then that's 50/50 that the scum does, compared to 3/14 with no duel
So in my mind, the no duel makes it slightly more likely that one of the duellers were scum. And as I'm agreeing more with the e logic, ADK seems like a better vote
What you're missing is the fact that the scum in this scenario have two people who they know will vote for their opponent if necessary. That makes getting involved in the duel a lot safer for them. I think if I were scum I would vote for the duel unless the townie I was up against had a ton of towncred. And frankly, neither ADK nor e had that amount of towncred going into this vote.
If someone other than MiX wants me to claim I will, but near zero is really zero.
I don't think claiming is that important since everything happened just as planned. A majority of people said they didn't want to duel in the first 48 hours and violà! No duel
I don't think claiming is that important since everything happened just as planned. A majority of people said they didn't want to duel in the first 48 hours and violà! No duel
7/7 split would default to no duel, right?
Ties are duel.
Also, I want Debatepro to claim their vote right now.
violà!
For the record, and I think my short meta confirms this, i am persuaded by reasons and logic, except when voting for MiX. I always go with my gut when voting for MiX.
Right now the best reason is for not revealing. Awaclas - "give scum info they can use."
I don't think claiming is that important since everything happened just as planned. A majority of people said they didn't want to duel in the first 48 hours and violà! No duel
Disagree, I still think everyone should claim. I don't think it gives scum too many reads info and it absolutely is info town can use both now and later.
Do you think scum cares especially about YOUR vote? Because they don't.
Do you think scum cares especially about YOUR vote? Because they don't.
Yes they do. Let's say e and ADK are both scum, then knowing that Debatepro didn't vote for the duel is useful knowledge that helps them decide who to NK.
But not voting is so default that it basically says nothing about his reads. For all we know he didn't vote! Besides it's TWO DAYS OF READS are you telling me revealing two days of reads, of a player that didn't appear untill afterwards, says anything at all about their reads at the end of D1? No it doesn't! The upside is small but so clearly bigger than the downside.
But not voting is so default that it basically says nothing about his reads. For all we know he didn't vote! Besides it's TWO DAYS OF READS are you telling me revealing two days of reads, of a player that didn't appear untill afterwards, says anything at all about their reads at the end of D1? No it doesn't! The upside is small but so clearly bigger than the downside.
If not voting is the default, then it would be extra bad if scum found out that he voted yes.
But not voting is so default that it basically says nothing about his reads. For all we know he didn't vote! Besides it's TWO DAYS OF READS are you telling me revealing two days of reads, of a player that didn't appear untill afterwards, says anything at all about their reads at the end of D1? No it doesn't! The upside is small but so clearly bigger than the downside.
If not voting is the default, then it would be extra bad if scum found out that he voted yes.
This is false, no one has any hidden information about anyone's roles thus this """information" about his """reads""" is worth ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! Not now, at least. What you're saying is truthful things at a later stage of the game, then applying them when it's not true for towncred and "Awaclus points". No, I'm not letting you.
Vote: Awaclus
What you're saying is truthful things at a later stage of the game
But not voting is so default that it basically says nothing about his reads. For all we know he didn't vote! Besides it's TWO DAYS OF READS are you telling me revealing two days of reads, of a player that didn't appear untill afterwards, says anything at all about their reads at the end of D1? No it doesn't! The upside is small but so clearly bigger than the downside.
If not voting is the default, then it would be extra bad if scum found out that he voted yes.
This is false, no one has any hidden information about anyone's roles thus this """information" about his """reads""" is worth ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! Not now, at least. What you're saying is truthful things at a later stage of the game, then applying them when it's not true for towncred and "Awaclus points". No, I'm not letting you.
Vote: Awaclus
Also you only addressed the first part of my post. Why?
What you're saying is truthful things at a later stage of the game
TIL N1 is a late stage of the game.
But not voting is so default that it basically says nothing about his reads. For all we know he didn't vote! Besides it's TWO DAYS OF READS are you telling me revealing two days of reads, of a player that didn't appear untill afterwards, says anything at all about their reads at the end of D1? No it doesn't! The upside is small but so clearly bigger than the downside.
If not voting is the default, then it would be extra bad if scum found out that he voted yes.
This is false, no one has any hidden information about anyone's roles thus this """information" about his """reads""" is worth ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! Not now, at least. What you're saying is truthful things at a later stage of the game, then applying them when it's not true for towncred and "Awaclus points". No, I'm not letting you.
Vote: Awaclus
Also you only addressed the first part of my post. Why?
I don't think there is an upside at all so I'm not sure what you were rambling on about.
Someone's reads from two days is not going to be comparable to someone's development throughout the day. Not even slighly comparable. You're just lying for towncred.
I have a reason to want to know Debatepro's vote.
If someone other than MiX wants me to claim I will, but near zero is really zero.
I don't think claiming is that important since everything happened just as planned. A majority of people said they didn't want to duel in the first 48 hours and violà! No duel
Someone's reads from two days is not going to be comparable to someone's development throughout the day. Not even slighly comparable. You're just lying for towncred.
It's still better than nothing. If I was scum, getting to know which way a random townie voted would be more important to me than whatever "towncred" you think I'm getting out of this.
I have a reason to want to know Debatepro's vote.
Well it's nice of you to admit that. Vote: MiX
If someone other than MiX wants me to claim I will, but near zero is really zero.I do
False, this would go against your townmeta and if anyone caught it you would be lynched so fast you wouldn't believe. This is yet another lie.
7/7 split would default to no duel, right?
Ties are duel.
False, this would go against your townmeta and if anyone caught it you would be lynched so fast you wouldn't believe. This is yet another lie.
So you're saying that as town, I would do the thing that gets me lynched so fast I wouldn't believe? What sense does that make?
If someone other than MiX wants me to claim I will, but near zero is really zero.I do
I progressively elaborated my position, anyone other than mix with the best reason to reveal or not to reveal. My gut was telling me don’t do what MiX wants, but if others do then I will. Should have said I’ll consider it.
If someone other than MiX wants me to claim I will, but near zero is really zero.I do
I progressively elaborated my position, anyone other than mix with the best reason to reveal or not to reveal. My gut was telling me don’t do what MiX wants, but if others do then I will. Should have said I’ll consider it.
How about: I don't see that claiming votes reveals any more info about people's reads to scum than normal voting and discussion, and that deliberately trying to hide who you do and do not want lynched is something scum would like to do
Saying that you wouldn't do what you're doing as scum is the lie.
There's no guarantee it will be helpful, but it could be. My position is less that it is informative and more that it keeps scum in line. It's a deterrent against clumping their votes and makes it harder, not easier, for them to "spin false narrative."I don't think claiming is that important since everything happened just as planned. A majority of people said they didn't want to duel in the first 48 hours and violà! No duel
Disagree, I still think everyone should claim. I don't think it gives scum too many reads info and it absolutely is info town can use both now and later.
How does town use this info now and later? It's easy for any scum to pull threads together to spin false narrative and nudge votes towards a specific town.
I would like debate and Awaclus and 0iX to claim.What about DatSwan?
I would like debate and Awaclus and 0iX to claim.What about DatSwan?
If someone other than MiX wants me to claim I will, but near zero is really zero.I do
I progressively elaborated my position, anyone other than mix with the best reason to reveal or not to reveal. My gut was telling me don’t do what MiX wants, but if others do then I will. Should have said I’ll consider it.
How about: I don't see that claiming votes reveals any more info about people's reads to scum than normal voting and discussion, and that deliberately trying to hide who you do and do not want lynched is something scum would like to do
Hmm...I don't think everyone's reads on everyone need to be public, and maybe ADK/e aren't going to be viable lynched today. So this is slightly wrong.
There's no guarantee it will be helpful, but it could be. My position is less that it is informative and more that it keeps scum in line. It's a deterrent against clumping their votes and makes it harder, not easier, for them to "spin false narrative."I voted no duel, mostly because I wasn’t around and didn’t think there was enough info to have a strong opinion about e or adk.
Your refusing to claim is puzzling.
There's no guarantee it will be helpful, but it could be. My position is less that it is informative and more that it keeps scum in line. It's a deterrent against clumping their votes and makes it harder, not easier, for them to "spin false narrative."I voted no duel, mostly because I wasn’t around and didn’t think there was enough info to have a strong opinion about e or adk.
Your refusing to claim is puzzling.
There's no guarantee it will be helpful, but it could be. My position is less that it is informative and more that it keeps scum in line. It's a deterrent against clumping their votes and makes it harder, not easier, for them to "spin false narrative."I voted no duel, mostly because I wasn’t around and didn’t think there was enough info to have a strong opinion about e or adk.
Your refusing to claim is puzzling.
I am dissapointed.
Okay the setup has failed me, let's get on with D1 shenanigans like we always do...
And I even looked up how to spell it to make sure I didn't miss up the spelling. And then I spelled it wrong.violà!
Let's try unexplained votes.So you just picked him at random? Are you expecting people to join?
Vote: Glooble
I always try to build these airtight cases and am usually wrong. Let's see how this works without a case
7/7 split would default to no duel, right?
Ties are duel.
Side note that i found important, dunno if this is common info or not, but it caught me off guard.
Yes, ties are duels... however if you do not vote, nothing happens. As in it doesn’t default to “no duel”.
DebatePro - The reason, imo at least, that specifically today right now (not necessarily later) that you should claim your vote is because it means nothing to skum. 48 hours of the game had passed when you had to make that choice. Reads don't matter at the time of the decision. All it does it create a data base of info.
Personally - I would of liked it if we just had not claimed, but since so many people have done so already, I think getting a full list neither helps skum nor hurts town... but it is info.
Everyone needs to re read the post I made about "not voting for the duel". There could be a plan there down the road, but I can't come up with one.
This:7/7 split would default to no duel, right?
Ties are duel.
Side note that i found important, dunno if this is common info or not, but it caught me off guard.
Yes, ties are duels... however if you do not vote, nothing happens. As in it doesn’t default to “no duel”.
To elaborate on this potential importance..
a) MoD confirmed.
b) Hypothetical accurate scenario - 14 players alive. 5 vote YES, 5 vote NO, 4 do nothing. We go to duel.
1) Joth since you were so persistent on getting others to claim... and you know Awaclus isn't... and I0X is the new guy... either a reason for not claiming or claim it up pretty please.
Basically since I voted yes but people assumed I voted no, wemight have ended up in a situation where we had too many yes claims. It would require scum lying in a weird direction, but might have panned out if scum voted no and their were scum among {Robz, Joseph}.
Basically since I voted yes but people assumed I voted no, wemight have ended up in a situation where we had too many yes claims. It would require scum lying in a weird direction, but might have panned out if scum voted no and their were scum among {Robz, Joseph}.
Everyone needs to re read the post I made about "not voting for the duel". There could be a plan there down the road, but I can't come up with one.
This:7/7 split would default to no duel, right?
Ties are duel.
Side note that i found important, dunno if this is common info or not, but it caught me off guard.
Yes, ties are duels... however if you do not vote, nothing happens. As in it doesn’t default to “no duel”.
To elaborate on this potential importance..
a) MoD confirmed.
b) Hypothetical accurate scenario - 14 players alive. 5 vote YES, 5 vote NO, 4 do nothing. We go to duel.
Basically since I voted yes but people assumed I voted no, wemight have ended up in a situation where we had too many yes claims. It would require scum lying in a weird direction, but might have panned out if scum voted no and their were scum among {Robz, Joseph}.Okay that sounds towny to me
Basically since I voted yes but people assumed I voted no, wemight have ended up in a situation where we had too many yes claims. It would require scum lying in a weird direction, but might have panned out if scum voted no and their were scum among {Robz, Joseph}.
Since everyone knows the vote was "no duel" why would scum lie about their vote as a "yes duel". Seems more likely they vote yes and say they voted no. Unless scum are ignorant, there is no way until we get to read the QTs we can determine how someone voted.
Basically since I voted yes but people assumed I voted no, wemight have ended up in a situation where we had too many yes claims. It would require scum lying in a weird direction, but might have panned out if scum voted no and their were scum among {Robz, Joseph}.
Since everyone knows the vote was "no duel" why would scum lie about their vote as a "yes duel". Seems more likely they vote yes and say they voted no. Unless scum are ignorant, there is no way until we get to read the QTs we can determine how someone voted.
Basically since I voted yes but people assumed I voted no, wemight have ended up in a situation where we had too many yes claims. It would require scum lying in a weird direction, but might have panned out if scum voted no and their were scum among {Robz, Joseph}.
Since everyone knows the vote was "no duel" why would scum lie about their vote as a "yes duel". Seems more likely they vote yes and say they voted no. Unless scum are ignorant, there is no way until we get to read the QTs we can determine how someone voted.
Then everyone who voted yes is town.
Basically since I voted yes but people assumed I voted no, wemight have ended up in a situation where we had too many yes claims. It would require scum lying in a weird direction, but might have panned out if scum voted no and their were scum among {Robz, Joseph}.
Since everyone knows the vote was "no duel" why would scum lie about their vote as a "yes duel". Seems more likely they vote yes and say they voted no. Unless scum are ignorant, there is no way until we get to read the QTs we can determine how someone voted.
Then everyone who voted yes is town.
Not objectively true, because someone who said they'd vote yes could vote no instead if they were scumBasically since I voted yes but people assumed I voted no, wemight have ended up in a situation where we had too many yes claims. It would require scum lying in a weird direction, but might have panned out if scum voted no and their were scum among {Robz, Joseph}.
Since everyone knows the vote was "no duel" why would scum lie about their vote as a "yes duel". Seems more likely they vote yes and say they voted no. Unless scum are ignorant, there is no way until we get to read the QTs we can determine how someone voted.
Then everyone who voted yes is town.
I agree with the e vote though. To me it makes sense to lynch in the sets of either {ADK, e} or of the people who voted yes. e is in both. I'll gladly change my vote to e if anyone wants to join in.I don't follow your reasoning here, about voting in {ADK,e} or about voting for the people who said yes. Can you say how you get to that?
I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.
Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful.
I'm only going to vote yes on the duel today if it involves one of the fools wanting to duel so badly.
1) Joth since you were so persistent on getting others to claim... and you know Awaclus isn't... and I0X is the new guy... either a reason for not claiming or claim it up pretty please.
I was being coy because there was a very specific circumstance where I might have been able to gotcha scum, but with your claim that dream is dead.
At the last minute, I voted yes for the duel. It was a change in my previous thinking. For one thing, ADK had been scumread by Glooble, who I tend to trust, and e wasn’t having an exceptionally townie game. It felt like they were both decent day 1 lynches. And partly I felt it would be better for the vote to be closer, for this scenario we’re in right now.
Just did a quick re-read. I have a case, coming in the next post, but just leaving these tidbits here first.
THINGS PEOPLE SAID ABOUT VOTING BEFORE THE VOTE:I like dueling because if we never duel we are almost playing a straight up vanilla game and that isn't great.
Joth has some numbers on his side, but also consider that the survivor of the duel gets an unknown pr for the night. Which could be extremely useful.
The fact that e thought he would get the PR makes his voting for his own duel more plausible.I'm only going to vote yes on the duel today if it involves one of the fools wanting to duel so badly.
This is somewhat flip, but e was one of the folks who wanted to duel badly, so based on that pubby ought to have voted yes. But he voted no.
I'm neither pro-duel nor anti-duel. I will vote for a duel if I think it has a reasonably good chance of containing scum, and I will vote against a duel if it's more likely to me that both players are town. I'm not sure I see the advantage of having a default preference for duel or no duel.
vote: DatSwan
Hard to articulate exactly why but I’m getting a strong scum vibe off of his analysis posts. I’m trying to trust my gut more.
clip -- Glooble's Swan case -- clip
Well that was fun while it lasted. I now think DatSwan is town.
vote: pubby I guess?
If we’re ignoring MiX’s set order I’ll go ahead and say I voted no. I’m townreading ADK, e hadn’t really said enough to give me a read one way or the other, and I honestly didn’t think the power role gained would have been particularly useful on night one, especially with information twisted as it would have been by the duel.
MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default
Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead
Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.
Meh. That's such a non-post.
I wasn’t calling you scummy for it. Sorry if it came off that way. I was just being flip.
Also for now I want to Vote: ADK
My theory being that if there's a duel with a scum on it, then that's 50/50 that the scum does, compared to 3/14 with no duel
So in my mind, the no duel makes it slightly more likely that one of the duellers were scum. And as I'm agreeing more with the e logic, ADK seems like a better vote
What you're missing is the fact that the scum in this scenario have two people who they know will vote for their opponent if necessary. That makes getting involved in the duel a lot safer for them. I think if I were scum I would vote for the duel unless the townie I was up against had a ton of towncred. And frankly, neither ADK nor e had that amount of towncred going into this vote.
1) Joth since you were so persistent on getting others to claim... and you know Awaclus isn't... and I0X is the new guy... either a reason for not claiming or claim it up pretty please.
I was being coy because there was a very specific circumstance where I might have been able to gotcha scum, but with your claim that dream is dead.
At the last minute, I voted yes for the duel. It was a change in my previous thinking. For one thing, ADK had been scumread by Glooble, who I tend to trust, and e wasn’t having an exceptionally townie game. It felt like they were both decent day 1 lynches. And partly I felt it would be better for the vote to be closer, for this scenario we’re in right now.
Hold up, when did I scumread ADK?
If we’re ignoring MiX’s set order I’ll go ahead and say I voted no. I’m townreading ADK, e hadn’t really said enough to give me a read one way or the other, and I honestly didn’t think the power role gained would have been particularly useful on night one, especially with information twisted as it would have been by the duel.
Safe vote explanation, set up by his prior post.
MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default
Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead
Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.
Meh. That's such a non-post.
I wasn’t calling you scummy for it. Sorry if it came off that way. I was just being flip.
This is actually the post that made me start looking at Glooble. Overly-apologetic/defensive is my top scumtell, though I know not everyone’s a fan.
I don't follow your reasoning here, about voting in {ADK,e} or about voting for the people who said yes. Can you say how you get to that?No duel outcome is more likely if scum is is in the list of people dueling. The difference is weak but it does exist. For other days this is going to be negligible compared to other info but for d1 it seems better than picking randomly.
did I read it right that he thought he gets the PR if he wins?Nah a random player gets the PR.
prod request: 0iX
Pubby, why did you vote no after saying day 1 that you would vote for a duel if it involves an openly pro duel player (such as e)?I didn't even check what e had said. I just remembered I didn't find him suspicious so I voted no duel.
Pubby, why did you vote no after saying day 1 that you would vote for a duel if it involves an openly pro duel player (such as e)?Good spot
Like, I guess its a fine day one case? It's completely wrong, but so subjective that there's nothing in it that I can argue against.
Like, I guess its a fine day one case? It's completely wrong, but so subjective that there's nothing in it that I can argue against.
Preliminary thoughts on where joth falls on the town to scum spectrum?
Look, last game I had a scummy feeling about pingpongsam all game, but I never acted on it because I didn't have evidence. It turned out pps was scum. A few games ago on lynchpool I caught scum!shraeye based pretty much entirely on a gut read that I couldn't articulate. So I resolved to start trusting my reads more, hence the vote for Swan without explanation. Then mcmcsalot called me on it and everybody said they were townreading Swan, so I looked more closely, and figured out what it was I found scummy, but I also found some towny stuff in that reread. I didn't back off because the lynch wasn't gaining traction, I backed off because he made a post that felt very townie and changed my read on him.
I'm flattered that you think I'm better than this as town, but the fact is my day 1 cases as town pretty much always suck (and often they're on DatSwan.)
Your case on me, though, is, frankly below your usual standards.
Like, I guess its a fine day one case? It's completely wrong, but so subjective that there's nothing in it that I can argue against.
Like, I guess its a fine day one case? It's completely wrong, but so subjective that there's nothing in it that I can argue against.
Preliminary thoughts on where joth falls on the town to scum spectrum?
Other than his case on me, nothing has set off my scum radar. I need to do a reread though.
Like, I guess its a fine day one case? It's completely wrong, but so subjective that there's nothing in it that I can argue against.
Preliminary thoughts on where joth falls on the town to scum spectrum?
Other than his case on me, nothing has set off my scum radar. I need to do a reread though.
1) Joth since you were so persistent on getting others to claim... and you know Awaclus isn't... and I0X is the new guy... either a reason for not claiming or claim it up pretty please.
I was being coy because there was a very specific circumstance where I might have been able to gotcha scum, but with your claim that dream is dead.
At the last minute, I voted yes for the duel. It was a change in my previous thinking. For one thing, ADK had been scumread by Glooble, who I tend to trust, and e wasn’t having an exceptionally townie game. It felt like they were both decent day 1 lynches. And partly I felt it would be better for the vote to be closer, for this scenario we’re in right now.
Like, I guess its a fine day one case? It's completely wrong, but so subjective that there's nothing in it that I can argue against.
Preliminary thoughts on where joth falls on the town to scum spectrum?
Other than his case on me, nothing has set off my scum radar. I need to do a reread though.
Is joth town, null or scum? Why didn't you answer the question? Who are your scumbuddies?
1) Joth since you were so persistent on getting others to claim... and you know Awaclus isn't... and I0X is the new guy... either a reason for not claiming or claim it up pretty please.
I was being coy because there was a very specific circumstance where I might have been able to gotcha scum, but with your claim that dream is dead.
At the last minute, I voted yes for the duel. It was a change in my previous thinking. For one thing, ADK had been scumread by Glooble, who I tend to trust, and e wasn’t having an exceptionally townie game. It felt like they were both decent day 1 lynches. And partly I felt it would be better for the vote to be closer, for this scenario we’re in right now.
Here's a thing - joth is saying he, at least partially, based his vote on my scum case against ADK, which was actually against DatSwan. Joth had a whole day to decide yes or no. You'd think he would have reread. I did. But if he had reread he would have seen that my case was on Swan. This seems like an easier mistake for scum!joth to have made while coming up with a townie justification for his vote.
Don't get me wrong, I totally believe joth could confuse DatSwan and ADK, regardless of alignment. What I don't believe is that he would consider my reads as part of his decision-making process without going back and rereading my case first.
I'm flattered that you think I'm better than this as town, but the fact is my day 1 cases as town pretty much always suck (and often they're on DatSwan.)
If e and ADK are both town, I think we can almost certainly expect scum to have voted yes. But since there wasn't a duel, there's no incentive for scum to have claimed a yes vote- they would know, before anyone claimed, that there would be no way to refute an over-abundance of "no" votes, and a yes vote draws more suspicion. I think we are more likely to find scum among the "no" voters. Unfortunately, that group is huge, so it doesn't narrow things down very much.
prod request: 0iX
True, but have they actually posted yet?prod request: 0iX
its his first game. probably let him get settled, this is a weird day 1.
True, but have they actually posted yet?prod request: 0iX
its his first game. probably let him get settled, this is a weird day 1.
prod request: 0iX
its his first game. probably let him get settled, this is a weird day 1.
prod request: 0iX
its his first game. probably let him get settled, this is a weird day 1.
He met Silver in the championship. He’s not a n00b.
If e and ADK are both town, I think we can almost certainly expect scum to have voted yes. But since there wasn't a duel, there's no incentive for scum to have claimed a yes vote- they would know, before anyone claimed, that there would be no way to refute an over-abundance of "no" votes, and a yes vote draws more suspicion. I think we are more likely to find scum among the "no" voters. Unfortunately, that group is huge, so it doesn't narrow things down very much.
This line of reasoning is exactly why I think scum would want to say they voted yes
If e and ADK are both town, I think we can almost certainly expect scum to have voted yes. But since there wasn't a duel, there's no incentive for scum to have claimed a yes vote- they would know, before anyone claimed, that there would be no way to refute an over-abundance of "no" votes, and a yes vote draws more suspicion. I think we are more likely to find scum among the "no" voters. Unfortunately, that group is huge, so it doesn't narrow things down very much.
This line of reasoning is exactly why I think scum would want to say they voted yes
Maybe we're looking at this the wrong way. If scum are thinking about this like wagons, they probably want some on, some off - some yes claims and some no claims.
Or if they wanted to push town into lynching a yes claim, maybe they would all want to vote no and put themselves in the larger group.
Vote Count 1.5
Glooble (2): jotheonah, MiX
Robz888 (1): pubby
jotheonah (3): Glooble, EFHW, A Drowned Kernel
e (1): DatSwan
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (2): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302
Not Voting (4): Debatepro, 0Ix, e, Robz888
With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends at Sep. 8, 06:30 forum time. That is in 3 days and 19+ hours.
Here's a question for e: was there another player that, if you had been paired with, you would have voted "no"?
vote: Pubby. Absolutely no reason except I don’t like the other wagons and would prefer to lynch anyone like now.
vote: Pubby. Absolutely no reason except I don’t like the other wagons and would prefer to lynch anyone like now.
Can you show me a weak case that justifies this vote over any other?
Here's a question for e: was there another player that, if you had been paired with, you would have voted "no"?
vote: Pubby. Absolutely no reason except I don’t like the other wagons and would prefer to lynch anyone like now.
Can you show me a weak case that justifies this vote other any other?
vote: Pubby. Absolutely no reason except I don’t like the other wagons and would prefer to lynch anyone like now.
Can you show me a weak case that justifies this vote other any other?
I think Joth is town and Glooble defended himself well so that leaves pubby.
vote: Pubby. Absolutely no reason except I don’t like the other wagons and would prefer to lynch anyone like now.
Can you show me a weak case that justifies this vote other any other?
I think Joth is town and Glooble defended himself well so that leaves pubby.
That's a pretty big leap. Where is pubby scummy?
vote: Pubby. Absolutely no reason except I don’t like the other wagons and would prefer to lynch anyone like now.
Can you show me a weak case that justifies this vote other any other?
I think Joth is town and Glooble defended himself well so that leaves pubby.
That's a pretty big leap. Where is pubby scummy?
Where has he proven that he isn't scummy?
BTW I realized something. Whoever is getting wagoned at the time of the duel has incentive to vote for the duel in order to save themselves for a day. This incentive could be pretty strong - I mean I only had 4 votes on me but I sure thought about it.
This comes straight out of a town mindset: Scum's thinking about the two targets and how many scum are in them and if they can get away with voting yes, whereas town's thinking about their own survival. I can probably scavenge some more but this is why I started townreading him.
This comes straight out of a town mindset: Scum's thinking about the two targets and how many scum are in them and if they can get away with voting yes, whereas town's thinking about their own survival. I can probably scavenge some more but this is why I started townreading him.
This comes straight out of a town mindset: Scum's thinking about the two targets and how many scum are in them and if they can get away with voting yes, whereas town's thinking about their own survival. I can probably scavenge some more but this is why I started townreading him.
I didn't ask you to explain why he's town, which is pretty useless given that your idea of an IC overlaps with your idea of the scummiest person around. Has he explained it himself?
This comes straight out of a town mindset: Scum's thinking about the two targets and how many scum are in them and if they can get away with voting yes, whereas town's thinking about their own survival. I can probably scavenge some more but this is why I started townreading him.
Huh? Scum is definitely thinking about their own survival. Moreso than town, especially in a setup where most town are VTs.
...I will probably stop answering your questions from here on.
...I will probably stop answering your questions from here on.
You can answer if you have something useful to say.
Has he explained it himself?
@ADK - you say in a couple posts that it is townier to vote yes for duel. Why is that?
Anyone with a wagon on them at the time of duel selection will think about this. NAI.This comes straight out of a town mindset: Scum's thinking about the two targets and how many scum are in them and if they can get away with voting yes, whereas town's thinking about their own survival. I can probably scavenge some more but this is why I started townreading him.
Huh? Scum is definitely thinking about their own survival. Moreso than town, especially in a setup where most town are VTs.
vote: Pubby. Absolutely no reason except I don’t like the other wagons and would prefer to lynch anyone like now.
Can you show me a weak case that justifies this vote other any other?
I think Joth is town and Glooble defended himself well so that leaves pubby.
That's a pretty big leap. Where is pubby scummy?
Not only that, but if thinking about survival were towny, we would expect all town not nominated to vote yes (since it guarantees they’re not the day’s lynch).
vote: Pubby. Absolutely no reason except I don’t like the other wagons and would prefer to lynch anyone like now.
Can you show me a weak case that justifies this vote other any other?
I think Joth is town and Glooble defended himself well so that leaves pubby.
That's a pretty big leap. Where is pubby scummy?
Defend your partner much?
Look, I’m town. I don’t know what joth is, but his case on me feels just as insincere as he said my case on DatSwan was. Joth’s day 1 cases tend to have more meat on their bones, as it were, plus he’s usually good at reading me. That combined with the ADK/ Sean mistake which seems more likely to be a scum!joth mistake than a town!joth mistake, constitutes my entire case.
The flaw in my case is why scum!joth would choose to start a wagon on me rather than someone else, or wait for a townie to start a wagon then jump on that. The second one is somewhat explained by the fact that joth apparently thought we were a lot closer to the deadline then we are, we I guess could make him want to jumpstart a mislynch? Consider he was already on the pubby wagon and it didn’t look like it was picking up much steam.
Alternatively, if joth thought we were close to deadline and pubby was joth’s partner, he might have been afraid of town defaulting to a pubby lynch when we ran out of time.
Not only that, but if thinking about survival were towny, we would expect all town not nominated to vote yes (since it guarantees they’re not the day’s lynch).
That's a really big stretch. But feel free to ignore my townread, Awaclus didn't need it anyway so I don't know why we're spending so much time analyzing that (and only that). Where's all the joth/Glooble discussion? Or any other for that matter?
So you don't have a case, gotcha. Also, lazy answer, that's what anyone would instantly think of.
Let's all do reads lists! That will be fun.
Let's all do reads lists! That will be fun.
The scumteam: glooble, joth, mix
Everyone else is town
DatSwan - leaning town but still a tiny bit suspicious
Awaclus - he is acting less belligerent than usual, but I refuse to lynch him for that
jotheonah - not that scummy but scummier than anyone else to me right now
Glooble - town
Joseph2302 - null
2.71828..... - I could be convinced to vote here. I should reread.
0Ix - who?
Debatepro - can't remember anything he's done this game
MiX - townish
EFHW - town
A Drowned Kernel - probably town, despite our disagreements about how scum would act
Robz888 - null, this new meta sucks
pubby - was leaning scum, now leaning null
mcmcsalot - town
Let's all do reads lists! That will be fun.
But I refuse.
DatSwan - leaning town but still a tiny bit suspicious
Awaclus - he is acting less belligerent than usual, but I refuse to lynch him for that
jotheonah - not that scummy but scummier than anyone else to me right now
Glooble - town
Joseph2302 - null
2.71828..... - I could be convinced to vote here. I should reread.
0Ix - who?
Debatepro - can't remember anything he's done this game
MiX - townish
EFHW - town
A Drowned Kernel - probably town, despite our disagreements about how scum would act
Robz888 - null, this new meta sucks
pubby - was leaning scum, now leaning null
mcmcsalot - town
In all earnestness, I feel like there's way too much town and null on this list for it to be real
vote: glooble
But seriously, why would I post a list like that as scum? "Oh, I'm about to get lynched, better deflect suspicion by saying... I think everybody is townie?"
Who does that?
But seriously, why would I post a list like that as scum? "Oh, I'm about to get lynched, better deflect suspicion by saying... I think everybody is townie?"
Who does that?
But seriously, why would I post a list like that as scum? "Oh, I'm about to get lynched, better deflect suspicion by saying... I think everybody is townie?"
Who does that?
But seriously, why would I post a list like that as scum? "Oh, I'm about to get lynched, better deflect suspicion by saying... I think everybody is townie?"
Who does that?
"About to get lynched" is a pretty bizarre way to describe having two votes on you
The scumteam: glooble, joth, mix
Everyone else is town
Dream team!
As scum I would absolutely just make shit up, but I don't do that as town. So if I have no strong scumreads, you get a readlist with no strong scumreads.
As scum I would absolutely just make shit up, but I don't do that as town. So if I have no strong scumreads, you get a readlist with no strong scumreads.
There is a third option you know, besides "make stuff up" and "make a list with no strong scumreads". I wonder if you can guess what it is...
As scum I would absolutely just make shit up, but I don't do that as town. So if I have no strong scumreads, you get a readlist with no strong scumreads.
There is a third option you know, besides "make stuff up" and "make a list with no strong scumreads". I wonder if you can guess what it is...
Pull an Awaclus and refuse to make a list?
Anybody else feel like he's really off-meta? He's posting more, the posts are longer, and they're even helpful occasionally. I don't like it.
I mean obviously my posts are helpful, otherwise I wouldn't post.
I just iso'd pubby. ... what's the case there? He seems decently townie if a bit lurkish.
But you know who we should talk about? Awaclus! Anybody else feel like he's really off-meta? He's posting more, the posts are longer, and they're even helpful occasionally. I don't like it.
And are you already tired of taking about glooble?
Vote: Joseph2302 8)Why?
Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.
do the one-shot PRs need to be used the night they're gained?
My previous vote (0IX) was recorded incorrectly so I wanted to change it. Joseph reads fairly scummy to me and has not had not received much attention.Vote: Joseph2302 8)Why?
I haven't been paying much attention to this game. Just not feeling interested I guess. I usually bumble my way through these games but I'm surprised you guys are interpreting that as malicious this time.My previous vote (0IX) was recorded incorrectly so I wanted to change it. Joseph reads fairly scummy to me and has not had not received much attention.Vote: Joseph2302 8)Why?
I'd vote e, Glooble, or Joseph today. e is scummy based on votes, but the other two are scummy based on reads. Joseph is the one voting for me though, so screw that guy ;D.
We should lynch pubby and anyone waiting or waffling to drag this out is pathologically anti-town. That is all.
We should lynch pubby and anyone waiting or waffling to drag this out is pathologically anti-town. That is all.
I really did miss you Robz. I hope you're not scum.
How is the case on pubby not a pile of nothing?
Sometimes a pile of nothing hits scum.
We should lynch pubby and anyone waiting or waffling to drag this out is pathologically anti-town. That is all.
Pubby isn't the worst lynch but I would like to hear from the people who aren't currently voting
I haven't been paying much attention to this game. Just not feeling interested I guess. I usually bumble my way through these games but I'm surprised you guys are interpreting that as malicious this time.My previous vote (0IX) was recorded incorrectly so I wanted to change it. Joseph reads fairly scummy to me and has not had not received much attention.Vote: Joseph2302 8)Why?
What about e?
We should lynch pubby and anyone waiting or waffling to drag this out is pathologically anti-town. That is all.
What's good about the pubby lynch that's bad about the glooble or joth lynch?
also mix - why so set on no Joseph?
We should lynch pubby and anyone waiting or waffling to drag this out is pathologically anti-town. That is all.
What's good about the pubby lynch that's bad about the glooble or joth lynch?
I've already answered this: I have town reads on glooble and joth. So it's pretty obvious why I prefer pubby.
Finally something to agree with, calling folks anti-town for not voting pubby seemed scummy.
vote: robz
Finally something to agree with, calling folks anti-town for not voting pubby seemed scummy.
vote: robz
But not scummy enough for you to mention it before other people started voting?
vote: debatepro
Finally something to agree with, calling folks anti-town for not voting pubby seemed scummy.
vote: robz
But not scummy enough for you to mention it before other people started voting?
vote: debatepro
No, not scummy enough to vote for before at least one person I have a strong town read on voted for them.
Down.
Vote: Robz
Fine with me. vote: Robz
Finally something to agree with, calling folks anti-town for not voting pubby seemed scummy.
vote: robz
vote: robz
If we’re ignoring MiX’s set order I’ll go ahead and say I voted no. I’m townreading ADK, e hadn’t really said enough to give me a read one way or the other, and I honestly didn’t think the power role gained would have been particularly useful on night one, especially with information twisted as it would have been by the duel.
also mix - why so set on no Joseph?
No need when we have scummier players. I'm not very good at reading Joseph, but I think he's towny and I think most people would agree (maybe?).
Vote Count 1.7
Glooble (1): jotheonah
Robz888 (4): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby
Debatepro (3): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan, MiX
jotheonah (1): Glooble
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (3): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302
Not Voting (1): 0Ix
With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends at Sep. 8, 06:30 forum time. That is in 26h 9m.
I haven't been paying much attention to this game. Just not feeling interested I guess. I usually bumble my way through these games but I'm surprised you guys are interpreting that as malicious this time.My previous vote (0IX) was recorded incorrectly so I wanted to change it. Joseph reads fairly scummy to me and has not had not received much attention.Vote: Joseph2302 8)Why?
What about e?
still this.
I'd vote e, Glooble, or Joseph today. e is scummy based on votes, but the other two are scummy based on reads. Joseph is the one voting for me though, so screw that guy ;D.
If we’re ignoring MiX’s set order I’ll go ahead and say I voted no. I’m townreading ADK, e hadn’t really said enough to give me a read one way or the other, and I honestly didn’t think the power role gained would have been particularly useful on night one, especially with information twisted as it would have been by the duel.
Can you expand on this idea? What were you thinking about exactly when you said this?
If we’re ignoring MiX’s set order I’ll go ahead and say I voted no. I’m townreading ADK, e hadn’t really said enough to give me a read one way or the other, and I honestly didn’t think the power role gained would have been particularly useful on night one, especially with information twisted as it would have been by the duel.
Can you expand on this idea? What were you thinking about exactly when you said this?
We have no idea what the roles are, except that there are four of them, and they probably don’t include jailkeeper. Still most roles are going to do nothing unless you hit scum (vig, roleblocker) or hit the NK target (doctor). The odds of getting that right night 1 in a town this big are extremely slim.
... [2] At the start of the following night, a random player is selected. If they are town, they receive one of a list of one-shot powers (randomly selected) which they may use that night. If they are mafia, they will be told what that power is but will not receive it. This list of powers is fixed pre-game by the mod but is not revealed. All powers in it are either standard or standard with minor variations. The same power will not be selected twice in the game (regardless of whether the player was town or mafia). The list consists of four entries. In the case that all four are used up throughout the game, the duel mechanic disappears and further days are 240 hours long.
... [2] At the start of the following night, a random player is selected. If they are town, they receive one of a list of one-shot powers (randomly selected) which they may use that night. If they are mafia, they will be told what that power is but will not receive it. This list of powers is fixed pre-game by the mod but is not revealed. All powers in it are either standard or standard with minor variations. The same power will not be selected twice in the game (regardless of whether the player was town or mafia). The list consists of four entries. In the case that all four are used up throughout the game, the duel mechanic disappears and further days are 240 hours long.
Bolding mine.
Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.
I haven't seen anyone address this: do the one-shot PRs need to be used the night they're gained?
MiX, that’s been in the set-up post the whole time.
MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default
Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead
Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.
Meh. That's such a non-post.
I wasn’t calling you scummy for it. Sorry if it came off that way. I was just being flip.
What was this about Glooble?
If we’re ignoring MiX’s set order I’ll go ahead and say I voted no. I’m townreading ADK, e hadn’t really said enough to give me a read one way or the other, and I honestly didn’t think the power role gained would have been particularly useful on night one, especially with information twisted as it would have been by the duel.
Safe vote explanation, set up by his prior post.
What prior post?
MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default
Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead
Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.
Meh. That's such a non-post.
I wasn’t calling you scummy for it. Sorry if it came off that way. I was just being flip.
What was this about Glooble?
Can you tell I'm looking for reasons to scumread you?
Glooble (1): jotheonah
jotheonah (1): Glooble
Glooble (1): jotheonah
jotheonah (1): Glooble
Can both of you (especially Glooble) explain what this is supposed to mean to everyone else?
This is my way of asking "why is he the scummiest player" to both of you.
I should be voting for pubby.
I should be voting for pubby.
The program recognizes the name as whatever is bolded and after the colon and whitespace of a vote. Since you put the smiley inside of the bolded tags, you voted for "pubby 8)", which is not a valid nickname for pubby. Please vote again.
Glooble (1): jotheonah
jotheonah (1): Glooble
Can both of you (especially Glooble) explain what this is supposed to mean to everyone else?
This is my way of asking "why is he the scummiest player" to both of you.
I still think joth’s more than likely scum.
Why are you voting Glooble over this but not me? I don't understand this tunneling of Glooble.
... [2] At the start of the following night, a random player is selected. If they are town, they receive one of a list of one-shot powers (randomly selected) which they may use that night. If they are mafia, they will be told what that power is but will not receive it. This list of powers is fixed pre-game by the mod but is not revealed. All powers in it are either standard or standard with minor variations. The same power will not be selected twice in the game (regardless of whether the player was town or mafia). The list consists of four entries. In the case that all four are used up throughout the game, the duel mechanic disappears and further days are 240 hours long.
Bolding mine.
Sure, but I only asked this here:Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.
I haven't seen anyone address this: do the one-shot PRs need to be used the night they're gained?
How did you deduce that you couldn't use them at any other night?
Vote: Glooble
Why are you voting Glooble over this but not me? I don't understand this tunneling of Glooble.
... [2] At the start of the following night, a random player is selected. If they are town, they receive one of a list of one-shot powers (randomly selected) which they may use that night. If they are mafia, they will be told what that power is but will not receive it. This list of powers is fixed pre-game by the mod but is not revealed. All powers in it are either standard or standard with minor variations. The same power will not be selected twice in the game (regardless of whether the player was town or mafia). The list consists of four entries. In the case that all four are used up throughout the game, the duel mechanic disappears and further days are 240 hours long.
Bolding mine.
Sure, but I only asked this here:Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.
I haven't seen anyone address this: do the one-shot PRs need to be used the night they're gained?
How did you deduce that you couldn't use them at any other night?
Vote: Glooble
Unless you are actually trying to clear him?
Look at the current wagons:What? We're all consolidated into 3 wagons. Obviously some of the voters are scum. I don't see how you draw inferences about anybody from this vote count.
Robz888 (5): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble
Debatepro (4): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan, MiX, jotheonah
pubby (4): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus
Man, if the twin fight doesn't have scum in it...I'll wake up from the dream.
Look at the current wagons:What? We're all consolidated into 3 wagons. Obviously some of the voters are scum. I don't see how you draw inferences about anybody from this vote count.
Robz888 (5): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble
Debatepro (4): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan, MiX, jotheonah
pubby (4): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus
Man, if the twin fight doesn't have scum in it...I'll wake up from the dream.
Finally something to agree with, calling folks anti-town for not voting pubby seemed scummy.
vote: robz
But not scummy enough for you to mention it before other people started voting?
vote: debatepro
No, not scummy enough to vote for before at least one person I have a strong town read on voted for them.
You're gonna have to start having original ideas fast before you're mislynched every game.
Vote: Debatepro
That is town vs town almost for sure. Really really for sure most likely not robz skum, followed closely by not pubby skum. [EFHW, Debate], [Joth, Mix, Glooble, ADK, 0IX] seem like good pools to look at.
For my own reasons I like [Debate, MiX, ADK] - in that order. Most likely only one in there though.
Vote: Debate
This is uncivil and you are claiming that sheeping is an original idea?Finally something to agree with, calling folks anti-town for not voting pubby seemed scummy.
vote: robz
But not scummy enough for you to mention it before other people started voting?
vote: debatepro
No, not scummy enough to vote for before at least one person I have a strong town read on voted for them.
You're gonna have to start having original ideas fast before you're mislynched every game.
Vote: Debatepro
Don't be dick. The reason for my vote is original and stated by no one. That someone I have a strong town read on also voted for and without a stated reason, made it feel more right.
Look at the current wagons:What? We're all consolidated into 3 wagons. Obviously some of the voters are scum. I don't see how you draw inferences about anybody from this vote count.
Robz888 (5): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble
Debatepro (4): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan, MiX, jotheonah
pubby (4): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus
Man, if the twin fight doesn't have scum in it...I'll wake up from the dream.
What's of note there is that the joth and Glooble wagons vanished. I guess that wasn't clear.
This is uncivil and you are claiming that sheeping is an original idea?Finally something to agree with, calling folks anti-town for not voting pubby seemed scummy.
vote: robz
But not scummy enough for you to mention it before other people started voting?
vote: debatepro
No, not scummy enough to vote for before at least one person I have a strong town read on voted for them.
You're gonna have to start having original ideas fast before you're mislynched every game.
Vote: Debatepro
Don't be dick. The reason for my vote is original and stated by no one. That someone I have a strong town read on also voted for and without a stated reason, made it feel more right.
This is uncivil and you are claiming that sheeping is an original idea?Finally something to agree with, calling folks anti-town for not voting pubby seemed scummy.
vote: robz
But not scummy enough for you to mention it before other people started voting?
vote: debatepro
No, not scummy enough to vote for before at least one person I have a strong town read on voted for them.
You're gonna have to start having original ideas fast before you're mislynched every game.
Vote: Debatepro
Don't be dick. The reason for my vote is original and stated by no one. That someone I have a strong town read on also voted for and without a stated reason, made it feel more right.
This is uncivil and you are claiming that sheeping is an original idea?I would point out that debate did provide a reason for his vote, he just didn't do it until other people were voting
This is uncivil and you are claiming that sheeping is an original idea?I would point out that debate did provide a reason for his vote, he just didn't do it until other people were voting
I'm looking at every vote in a spreadsheet, 55 in total as of #548. Over 60% of them meet the condition you described above. More if you include those who don't provide reasons.
This is uncivil and you are claiming that sheeping is an original idea?I would point out that debate did provide a reason for his vote, he just didn't do it until other people were voting
I'm looking at every vote in a spreadsheet, 55 in total as of #548. Over 60% of them meet the condition you described above. More if you include those who don't provide reasons.
The reason for my vote is original and stated by no one.
Vote# | Post# | By | For |
11 | 155 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=19733.msg809750#msg809750) | MCMC | Pubby |
I think Robz is town but I doubt there’s much scum in the five-vote pile-on because scum is scared to be that obvious.
Glooble’s gravitating toward the Robz wagon reaffirms my scumread on him.
I will most likely not be around at deadline, barring a bout of insomnia.
I think Robz is town but I doubt there’s much scum in the five-vote pile-on because scum is scared to be that obvious.
Glooble’s gravitating toward the Robz wagon reaffirms my scumread on him.
I will most likely not be around at deadline, barring a bout of insomnia.
I think Robz is town but I doubt there’s much scum in the five-vote pile-on because scum is scared to be that obvious.
Glooble’s gravitating toward the Robz wagon reaffirms my scumread on him.
I will most likely not be around at deadline, barring a bout of insomnia.
So let me get this straight- scum wouldn’t vote for Robz before people started questioning the Robz wagon because it would be “too obvious” but my voting for Robz after the wagon has been called out as scummy isn’t “too obvious”?
Sorry, how does that make any sense?
prod request: mcmcsalot
Great, so glad we are going to do a last minute lynch just because deadline is approaching, possibly with not enough people around, almost certainly hitting town... instead of the duel. You people really are the worst!
I think Robz is town but I doubt there’s much scum in the five-vote pile-on because scum is scared to be that obvious.
Glooble’s gravitating toward the Robz wagon reaffirms my scumread on him.
I will most likely not be around at deadline, barring a bout of insomnia.
So let me get this straight- scum wouldn’t vote for Robz before people started questioning the Robz wagon because it would be “too obvious” but my voting for Robz after the wagon has been called out as scummy isn’t “too obvious”?
Sorry, how does that make any sense?
Vote Count Previous
Glooble (3): jotheonah, MiX, A Drowned Kernel
Joseph (1): pubby
jotheonah (1): Glooble,
e (1): DatSwan
pubby (5): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302, Robz888, Awaclus, EFHW
Not Voting (3): Debatepro, 0Ix, e
Vote Count Current
Glooble (2): jotheonah, MiX
Robz (5): E, DatSwan, EFHW, Debatepro, Pubby
jotheonah (1): Glooble
pubby (4): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302, Robz888, Awaclus
Debatepro (1): ADK
Not Voting (1): 0IX
Vote Count 1.8Now that I'm at a computer, I want to respond to DatSwan's conclusion that both Robz and pubby must be town here. I don't see it that way. I am the only one who switched from pubby to Robz, so it's not like they are interchangeable in many people's minds. And I had voted Robz previously, so it's not like I'm being all that opportunistic. Given their positions on each other's wagons, I do think pubby and Robz are unlikely to be partners, as I said before.
Robz888 (5): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble
Debatepro (3): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan, jotheonah
pubby (5): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, MiX
Not Voting (1): 0Ix
Great, so glad we are going to do a last minute lynch just because deadline is approaching, possibly with not enough people around, almost certainly hitting town... instead of the duel. You people really are the worst!
Would scum!Robz be this anti-town? Yes. Would town!Robz? Yes. So I'm voting him for being anti-town. pubby's vote on Robz was pretty opportunistic, so I might go back to him. I don't want to vote out of annoyance. But I also don't want this force of chaos muddling us up.
Great, so glad we are going to do a last minute lynch just because deadline is approaching, possibly with not enough people around, almost certainly hitting town... instead of the duel. You people really are the worst!
I didn't say they couldn't both be town, just that it's not indicated that they are by the vca.Would scum!Robz be this anti-town? Yes. Would town!Robz? Yes. So I'm voting him for being anti-town. pubby's vote on Robz was pretty opportunistic, so I might go back to him. I don't want to vote out of annoyance. But I also don't want this force of chaos muddling us up.
The problem I have with this is...you said Robz isn't scum with pubby right? But they're also not very likely to be town together, yes? This means we actually need to decide on which of them is scum, otherwise scum can just vote for the town one and we'll end up wondering why we let scum get away. This is similar to the duel problem: if we're undecisive, scum has full control over the duel outcome. Sure, maybe we get better reads...but what we want is dead scum in our hands.
So go reread Robz. Go reread pubby. Come back with answers. I'll do the same.
Oh, and I didn't finish my reread, but I don't think I'm lynching anyone other than these 2.
...
Now Debate has risen up as a viable wagon, with {ADK, DatSwan and joth} on it. The emergence of a new wagon makes it more plausible that one of pubby-Robz is scum, with a partner in {ADK, Swan, joth}.
But these are all incremental shifts in likelihood. They could all be town, they could all be scum. Everyone on Debate's wagon could be scum (admittedly unlikely). It's fine if DatSwan has townreads on pubby and Robz, but I don't see how the VCA supports a conclusion that they must both be town. Did I miss something?
...
Now Debate has risen up as a viable wagon, with {ADK, DatSwan and joth} on it. The emergence of a new wagon makes it more plausible that one of pubby-Robz is scum, with a partner in {ADK, Swan, joth}.
But these are all incremental shifts in likelihood. They could all be town, they could all be scum. Everyone on Debate's wagon could be scum (admittedly unlikely). It's fine if DatSwan has townreads on pubby and Robz, but I don't see how the VCA supports a conclusion that they must both be town. Did I miss something?
What is your read on MiX? Between DatSwan's vote count summary (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=19733.msg810287#msg810287) and VC 1.8 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=19733.msg810344#msg810344) he votes Debatepro (#518), Glooble (#530), Debatepro (#535), and Pubby (#562) so his movement doesn't show in the data.
(https://i.ibb.co/zf6bnQd/ZZZ.png) (https://imgbb.com/)
(My post # assume "Show most recent posts at the top" profile setting, if you have the default setting in place it is -1)
One day you will be scum, and you will rue the day you showed that pic.
Vote# | Post# | By | For |
42 | 508 | e | Joseph |
43 | 508 | e | Robz |
44 | 509 | DatSwan | Robz |
45 | 510 | EFHW | Robz |
46 | 511 | Debatepro | Robz |
47 | 512 | Pubby | Robz |
48 | 514 | ADK | Debatepro |
49 | 516 | DatSwan | Debatepro |
50 | 518 | MiX | Debatepro |
51 | 530 | MiX | Glooble |
52 | 535 | MiX | Debatepro |
53 | 540 | Glooble | Robz |
54 | 542 | Awaclus | Pubby |
55 | 548 | Joth | Debatepro |
56 | 562 | MiX | Pubby |
Would scum!Robz be this anti-town? Yes. Would town!Robz? Yes. So I'm voting him for being anti-town. pubby's vote on Robz was pretty opportunistic, so I might go back to him. I don't want to vote out of annoyance. But I also don't want this force of chaos muddling us up.
The problem I have with this is...you said Robz isn't scum with pubby right? But they're also not very likely to be town together, yes? This means we actually need to decide on which of them is scum, otherwise scum can just vote for the town one and we'll end up wondering why we let scum get away. This is similar to the duel problem: if we're undecisive, scum has full control over the duel outcome. Sure, maybe we get better reads...but what we want is dead scum in our hands.
So go reread Robz. Go reread pubby. Come back with answers. I'll do the same.
Oh, and I didn't finish my reread, but I don't think I'm lynching anyone other than these 2.
...
Now Debate has risen up as a viable wagon, with {ADK, DatSwan and joth} on it. The emergence of a new wagon makes it more plausible that one of pubby-Robz is scum, with a partner in {ADK, Swan, joth}.
But these are all incremental shifts in likelihood. They could all be town, they could all be scum. Everyone on Debate's wagon could be scum (admittedly unlikely). It's fine if DatSwan has townreads on pubby and Robz, but I don't see how the VCA supports a conclusion that they must both be town. Did I miss something?
What is your read on MiX? Between DatSwan's vote count summary (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=19733.msg810287#msg810287) and VC 1.8 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=19733.msg810344#msg810344) he votes Debatepro (#518), Glooble (#530), Debatepro (#535), and Pubby (#562) so his movement doesn't show in the data.
I think Robz is town but I doubt there’s much scum in the five-vote pile-on because scum is scared to be that obvious.
Glooble’s gravitating toward the Robz wagon reaffirms my scumread on him.
I will most likely not be around at deadline, barring a bout of insomnia.
So let me get this straight- scum wouldn’t vote for Robz before people started questioning the Robz wagon because it would be “too obvious” but my voting for Robz after the wagon has been called out as scummy isn’t “too obvious”?
Sorry, how does that make any sense?
Robz, you baffle me. No one has articulated a real case on pubby, but you’re gung-ho about his lynch. But now you want a case for debatepro? What’s the difference? Is one of them your partner?
Vote Count Previous
Glooble (3): jotheonah, MiX, A Drowned Kernel
Joseph (1): pubby
jotheonah (1): Glooble,
e (1): DatSwan
pubby (5): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302, Robz888, Awaclus, EFHW
Not Voting (3): Debatepro, 0Ix, e
Vote Count Current
Glooble (2): jotheonah, MiX
Robz (5): E, DatSwan, EFHW, Debatepro, Pubby
jotheonah (1): Glooble
pubby (4): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302, Robz888, Awaclus
Debatepro (1): ADK
Not Voting (1): 0IX
Adding in the most recent vcVote Count 1.8Now that I'm at a computer, I want to respond to DatSwan's conclusion that both Robz and pubby must be town here. I don't see it that way. I am the only one who switched from pubby to Robz, so it's not like they are interchangeable in many people's minds. And I had voted Robz previously, so it's not like I'm being all that opportunistic. Given their positions on each other's wagons, I do think pubby and Robz are unlikely to be partners, as I said before.
Robz888 (5): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble
Debatepro (3): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan, jotheonah
pubby (5): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, MiX
Not Voting (1): 0Ix
The quick building of the Robz wagon could be indication that he is town, if one or more of {EFHW, Debate, pubby} are scum. This makes pubby somewhat less likely to be town if Robz is town.
{mcmc, Joseph and Robz} have been steady on pubby's wagon for awhile now. He is among the easier mislynches, so Robz is somewhat less likely to be town if pubby is town.
Now Debate has risen up as a viable wagon, with {ADK, DatSwan and joth} on it. The emergence of a new wagon makes it more plausible that one of pubby-Robz is scum, with a partner in {ADK, Swan, joth}.
But these are all incremental shifts in likelihood. They could all be town, they could all be scum. Everyone on Debate's wagon could be scum (admittedly unlikely). It's fine if DatSwan has townreads on pubby and Robz, but I don't see how the VCA supports a conclusion that they must both be town. Did I miss something?
Probably last post before I die. I'm gonna flip town, robz is gonna flip town. EFHW is JK and scum is Joseph, Awaclus, Glooble. 8)
Probably last post before I die. I'm gonna flip town, robz is gonna flip town. EFHW is JK and scum is Joseph, Awaclus, Glooble. 8)
Uuuuh. Hello Uncle. Sadly we're not partners, bah.
Have you been reading the game?
I feel like lately I have been trying to avoid playing games, then inevitably seeing someone in a game need to be replaced. And then I just get the itch again to throw myself into the fray of aggressively defending my innocence one more.
And we need a majority to lynch, right?
Do the votes happen in Qt? If so it appears I didn’t vote at all.
I think I want pubby to die out of the people that are discussed the most. Although I don’t want him o die the most.
I think the way Glooble and joth sheepily leaving each other alone is odd, especially for joth.
I think e endorsing his own lynch is weird, and scummy.
In my skimming I must have missed why he doesn’t have a wagon.
Vote: Debatepro, it can happen.And we need a majority to lynch, right?
Seems like it. Is there plurality lynch this day?
Seems like it. Is there plurality lynch this day?
Would scum!Robz be this anti-town? Yes. Would town!Robz? Yes. So I'm voting him for being anti-town. pubby's vote on Robz was pretty opportunistic, so I might go back to him. I don't want to vote out of annoyance. But I also don't want this force of chaos muddling us up.
Would scum!Robz be this anti-town? Yes. Would town!Robz? Yes. So I'm voting him for being anti-town. pubby's vote on Robz was pretty opportunistic, so I might go back to him. I don't want to vote out of annoyance. But I also don't want this force of chaos muddling us up.
Robz hates Day 1.
From playing with him in previous game as a skum buddy, he absolutely plays to his lack of content image when he is skum. However, the... how to I put this... *misguided* stance he has on duels is NAI.
To me this would be standard Day 1 Robz minus the gut feeling I have that there is something off.
Probably last post before I die. I'm gonna flip town, robz is gonna flip town. EFHW is JK and scum is Joseph, Awaclus, Glooble. 8)
Vote Count 1.5
Glooble (2): jotheonah, MiX
Robz888 (1): pubby
jotheonah (3): Glooble, EFHW, A Drowned Kernel
e (1): DatSwan
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (2): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302
Not Voting (4): Debatepro, Uncleeurope, e, Robz888
With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends at Sep. 8, 06:30 forum time. That is in 3 days and 19+ hours.
I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.
I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.
I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.
I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.
I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.
I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.
What is his motivation for doing that as town?
I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.
I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.
OK - weak is accepted.
take away why it is skummy, and tell me why he is towny.
I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.
I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.
What is his motivation for doing that as town?
I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.
I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.
What is his motivation for doing that as town?
99% just went 99.9%
I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.
I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.
What is his motivation for doing that as town?
99% just went 99.9%
I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.
I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.
What is his motivation for doing that as town?
99% just went 99.9%
I swear every time someone agrees with me it puts me on edge.
I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.
I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.
OK - weak is accepted.
take away why it is skummy, and tell me why he is towny.
Why are you forcing me to reread a townread when there's more important people to read? I'll do it but...I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.
I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.
What is his motivation for doing that as town?
Random e things.I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.
I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.
What is his motivation for doing that as town?
99% just went 99.9%
What is this, likelyhood e's scum?
I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.
I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.
What is his motivation for doing that as town?
99% just went 99.9%
I swear every time someone agrees with me it puts me on edge.
I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.
I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.
What is his motivation for doing that as town?
99% just went 99.9%
I swear every time someone agrees with me it puts me on edge.
When do you not think e's scummy?
“Random e things” includes resigning yourself to killing exactly one player and hoping they are bad?
Or accepting the comforting release of death?
It is an anti-town play, and while that doesn’t always mean it is coming from scum, it is a hard mindset for me to see from a town POV.
“Random e things” includes resigning yourself to killing exactly one player and hoping they are bad?
Or accepting the comforting release of death?
It is an anti-town play, and while that doesn’t always mean it is coming from scum, it is a hard mindset for me to see from a town POV.
"Random e things" includes thinking the PR goes to whoever wins the duel. It includes thinking you can win a duel versus ADK D1. It includes...things that I should've written down. This is harder than it should be.
Can I say "while I was rereading him I kept assigning him town points because he was echoing my thought process and that felt towny"? Because, that.
Do the votes happen in Qt? If so it appears I didn’t vote at all.
I think I want pubby to die out of the people that are discussed the most. Although I don’t want him o die the most.
I think the way Glooble and joth sheepily leaving each other alone is odd, especially for joth.
I think e endorsing his own lynch is weird, and scummy.
In my skimming I must have missed why he doesn’t have a wagon.
Also, damA, anyone have anything for me?
Also, damA, anyone have anything for me?
Do you think Robz and MiX could be a scum team?
After trying to formulate some more stuff, I have a thought. My basic understanding of how joth plays is focused on him tunneling hard. (I admit this has a lot to do with MiX, but still...)
That being said his passionless case on Glooble followed by the abandonment of that case strikes me the wrong way.
Probably last post before I die. I'm gonna flip town, robz is gonna flip town. EFHW is JK and scum is Joseph, Awaclus, Glooble. 8)Yep this isn't true. And trying to out the JK is seriously anti-town too. It's the only definite PR that we have
I’m camping I’m the worst, I’ll catch up and try harderJust vote pubby, and end the day ;)
Deadline is in about 3 hours, is anyone around?
I'm guessing all the Americans won't be, as it's night time there
Vote Count 1.10
Robz888 (6): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble, jotheonah
Debatepro (1): DatSwan
Joseph2302 (1): MiX
pubby (5): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel
Not Voting (1): Uncleeurope
With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day 1 ends at Sep. 8, 06:30 forum time. That is in 13h 37m.
So are we going to duel today?Depends on who gets selected as potential duellers
Because PRs are good, and I can't see how we can win a vanilla 10/3 game
Because PRs are good, and I can't see how we can win a vanilla 10/3 game
It isn't a vanilla 10/3 game.
Vote: Glooble
Vote: Glooble
Vote: Awaclus
Vote: Glooble
Vote: Awaclus
Are you Glooble's scumbuddy?
No. I am voting for you because I don't like your reason for voting Glooble. It feels a scummy sort of opportunistic
No. I am voting for you because I don't like your reason for voting Glooble. It feels a scummy sort of opportunistic
Why would scum!me kill MiX if I wanted to lynch Glooble?
No. I am voting for you because I don't like your reason for voting Glooble. It feels a scummy sort of opportunistic
Why would scum!me kill MiX if I wanted to lynch Glooble?
Are you kidding? Framing me is the best rationale I can think of for scum to NK MiX.
Final Vote Count Day 1
e (2): Uncleeurope, DatSwan
Robz888 (4): Debatepro, pubby, Glooble, jotheonahpubby (8): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, MiX, EFHW, e
With 14 alive, it took 8 to lynch.
Final Vote Count Day 1
e (2): Uncleeurope, DatSwan
Robz888 (4): Debatepro, pubby, Glooble, jotheonahpubby (8): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, MiX, EFHW, e
With 14 alive, it took 8 to lynch.
Let's look for scum on the pubby wagon.
I have a slight (though not strong) town read on mcmc, just because I think he'd be more active if he was coming back for his first game in a while and drew scum.
Joseph's pro-duel stance makes him read town to me. EFHW is fighting with me the way she usually does as town.
That leaves Awaclus, ADK, and E. Could see scum among any of those.
I guess if either ADK or E were scum, probably mafia woulda really wanted not to duel, right? So scum there seems perhaps more likely.
So are we going to duel today?
Final Vote Count Day 1
e (2): Uncleeurope, DatSwan
Robz888 (4): Debatepro, pubby, Glooble, jotheonahpubby (8): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, MiX, EFHW, e
With 14 alive, it took 8 to lynch.
Let's look for scum on the pubby wagon.
I have a slight (though not strong) town read on mcmc, just because I think he'd be more active if he was coming back for his first game in a while and drew scum.
Joseph's pro-duel stance makes him read town to me. EFHW is fighting with me the way she usually does as town.
That leaves Awaclus, ADK, and E. Could see scum among any of those.
I guess if either ADK or E were scum, probably mafia woulda really wanted not to duel, right? So scum there seems perhaps more likely.
You forgot an important contributor to the pubby wagon...
Final Vote Count Day 1
e (2): Uncleeurope, DatSwan
Robz888 (4): Debatepro, pubby, Glooble, jotheonahpubby (8): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, MiX, EFHW, e
With 14 alive, it took 8 to lynch.
Let's look for scum on the pubby wagon.
I have a slight (though not strong) town read on mcmc, just because I think he'd be more active if he was coming back for his first game in a while and drew scum.
Joseph's pro-duel stance makes him read town to me. EFHW is fighting with me the way she usually does as town.
That leaves Awaclus, ADK, and E. Could see scum among any of those.
I guess if either ADK or E were scum, probably mafia woulda really wanted not to duel, right? So scum there seems perhaps more likely.
You forgot an important contributor to the pubby wagon...
This is not a useful comment. Obviously I am not going to list myself as one of the likelier scums on the pubby wagon, since I know I am not scum.
We should lynch pubby and anyone waiting or waffling to drag this out is pathologically anti-town. That is all.
I just iso'd pubby. ... what's the case there? He seems decently townie if a bit lurkish.
We should lynch pubby and anyone waiting or waffling to drag this out is pathologically anti-town. That is all.
I really did miss you Robz. I hope you're not scum.
How is the case on pubby not a pile of nothing?
Robz, you baffle me. No one has articulated a real case on pubby, but you’re gung-ho about his lynch. But now you want a case for debatepro? What’s the difference? Is one of them your partner?
Actually I think vote: Robz has a better chance of hitting scum. Robz, maybe if you answer my question I’ll move my vote.
True, it's s an 11/3 game, now a 9/3 game with just 1 PR. unless we use dualsBecause PRs are good, and I can't see how we can win a vanilla 10/3 game
It isn't a vanilla 10/3 game.
True, it's s an 11/3 game, now a 9/3 game with just 1 PR. unless we use dualsBecause PRs are good, and I can't see how we can win a vanilla 10/3 game
It isn't a vanilla 10/3 game.
I honestly don't see the narrative for scum!robz playing the way he is, while that narrative that town! Robz is being lazy and waiting for prs to solve the game for us makes sense
I honestly don't see the narrative for scum!robz playing the way he is, while that narrative that town! Robz is being lazy and waiting for prs to solve the game for us makes sense
I’m over that kind of reasoning. It gives scum a free pass to be scummy without even trying to hide it. I’d rather lose a few games lynching scummy townies then give people permission to ply badly as town and give themselves a smokescreen theme they’re scum. Honestly, why would scum!Robz bother trying to be towny if this is how people react when he’s scummy?
Yes we can. But D1 you don't know much, and I still believe we would have got more information from it. And a PRTrue, it's s an 11/3 game, now a 9/3 game with just 1 PR. unless we use dualsBecause PRs are good, and I can't see how we can win a vanilla 10/3 game
It isn't a vanilla 10/3 game.
We can use the duals without blindly voting yes every time
Awaclus, A Drowned Kernel, Robz88. The only three people who were on the pubby wagon, the little MiX wagon at the beginning of day one, and who at some point voted for me. I suppose if we count anyone who voted for pubby at any point, we'd need joth on this list too. Now, from my POV as someone who knows I am town, these are the four players who have voted for three confirmed townies. I realize this logic won't help anyone else until I flip, but that doesn't change the facts.
Anyway, ADK gets the vote over the other three because 1. this joth vs. Robz fight is really messing with my scumreads on both of them and 2. the duel got voted down, which does slightly increase the likelyhood of one of e/ ADK being scum. Also their position on the pubby wagon and the hedginess with which they delivered their votes don't look great.
Why does killing MiX to frame you make any sense at all?
Why does killing MiX to frame you make any sense at all?
If you're scum, and you see one town player with a lot of pressure on him, and another town player is pushing his case pretty hard, it makes a lot of sense to kill the player pushing the case. That way you can use the dead player's towniness to advance the case on the player who's under pressure.
Lynch# | PubbyVotes | - | ON/OFF | - | NeverON | - | MultipleVotes |
MiX | Joth | DatSwan | MiX | ||||
1 | MCMC | Glooble | Debatepro | Joth | |||
Joth | Joseph | Uncleeurope | Awaclus | ||||
Glooble | |||||||
Joseph | |||||||
2 | Robz | ||||||
Awaclus | |||||||
EFHW | |||||||
3 | Joseph | ||||||
4 | Awaclus | ||||||
MiX | |||||||
5 | ADK | ||||||
Joth | |||||||
6 | MiX | ||||||
7 | EFHW | ||||||
8 | e |
Vote# | Post# | ---By--- | ----For---- | Notes |
4 | 100 | MiX | Glooble | RSV: No reason (NR) |
10 | 132 | MiX | Pubby | RSV: NR |
21 | 271 | MiX | e | 270 voted no duel bc didn't want to lynch e by default |
23 | 305 | MiX | Joseph | Your ADK duel reasoning is shite |
24 | 325 | MiX | Awaclus | Awaclus reasoning only makes sense later in game |
26 | 342 | MiX | Debatepro | NR: Awaclus as null NIA |
30 | 382 | MiX | Glooble | Will sheep Joth on Glooble |
50 | 518 | MiX | Debatepro | Vote Debatepro for sheeping |
51 | 530 | MiX | Glooble | Why did glooble think PR couldn't use them at any other night |
52 | 535 | MiX | Debatepro | NR |
56 | 562 | MiX | Pubby | Don't want to fight w/ debatepro, NR pubby |
60 | 596 | MiX | Joseph | Potential lynches pubby/Robz/Joseph/Glooble will reread [Moves off Pubby L2] |
63 | 607 | MiX | Debatepro | Lets vote here, NR. |
64 | 608 | MiX | Joseph | Joseph has setup related posts. |
65 | 614 | MiX | Pubby | Agree with DS bout Robz, Robz null, lets try Pubby |
I just completely disagree that MiX was a viable mislynch target.
I just completely disagree that MiX was a viable mislynch target. The only player scumreading MiX at the end of the day was you.
Some data I've been pondering.
Lynch# PubbyVotes - ON/OFF - NeverON - MultipleVotes MiX Joth DatSwan MiX 1 MCMC Glooble Debatepro Joth Joth Joseph Uncleeurope Awaclus Glooble Joseph 2 Robz Awaclus EFHW 3 Joseph 4 Awaclus MiX 5 ADK Joth 6 MiX 7 EFHW 8 e
Some data I've been pondering.
<insert table>
I have no idea what this means.
Some data I've been pondering.
Lynch# PubbyVotes - ON/OFF - NeverON - MultipleVotes MiX Joth DatSwan MiX 1 MCMC Glooble Debatepro Joth Joth Joseph Uncleeurope Awaclus Glooble Joseph 2 Robz Awaclus EFHW 3 Joseph 4 Awaclus MiX 5 ADK Joth 6 MiX 7 EFHW 8 e
I have no idea what this means.
Ok, Robz, so answer me this: what is it that makes your vote for pubby for no reason townie but other votes for pubby with no reason scummy? Why look for scum on that wagon if you know there’s such an obvious reason for being on it as town?
So what is your analysis of that data? Never on are more likely town? Multiple votes more likely scum? Data is useless without some sort of analysis
So what is your analysis of that data? Never on are more likely town? Multiple votes more likely scum? Data is useless without some sort of analysis
The main point is to make it easier for team town to do analysis. If everyone on team town doesn't have to gather and collate the data, then they can spend more time on analysis. It's a time per task savings.
1. this joth vs. Robz fight is really messing with my scumreads on both of them
The whole idea around framing someone as scum is a bunch of WIFOM that doesn't actually contribute a ton to catching scum in my opinion.
Every flip does give us information to find scum, but the standard immediate jumping on an easy wagon is just scummy.
More people should vote Awaclus
Weirdly, so do I right nowThe whole idea around framing someone as scum is a bunch of WIFOM that doesn't actually contribute a ton to catching scum in my opinion.
Every flip does give us information to find scum, but the standard immediate jumping on an easy wagon is just scummy.
More people should vote Awaclus
I have a gut townread on awaclus
Overview of MiX votes w/ reasonsSo 4 people there who they voted for multiple times: me, Pubby, Debatepro and Glooble
Vote# Post# ---By--- ----For---- Notes 4 100 MiX Glooble RSV: No reason (NR) 10 132 MiX Pubby RSV: NR 21 271 MiX e 270 voted no duel bc didn't want to lynch e by default 23 305 MiX Joseph Your ADK duel reasoning is shite 24 325 MiX Awaclus Awaclus reasoning only makes sense later in game 26 342 MiX Debatepro NR: Awaclus as null NIA 30 382 MiX Glooble Will sheep Joth on Glooble 50 518 MiX Debatepro Vote Debatepro for sheeping 51 530 MiX Glooble Why did glooble think PR couldn't use them at any other night 52 535 MiX Debatepro NR 56 562 MiX Pubby Don't want to fight w/ debatepro, NR pubby 60 596 MiX Joseph Potential lynches pubby/Robz/Joseph/Glooble will reread [Moves off Pubby L2] 63 607 MiX Debatepro Lets vote here, NR. 64 608 MiX Joseph Joseph has setup related posts. 65 614 MiX Pubby Agree with DS bout Robz, Robz null, lets try Pubby
... I am interested in your thoughts
Post# | By | For | TimeStamp |
548 | Joth | Debatepro | Sep-07-19 07:53:59 am |
562 | MiX | Pubby | Sep-07-19 09:21:12 am |
584 | ADK | Pubby | Sep-07-19 01:25:12 pm |
591 | Joth | Pubby | Sep-07-19 03:00:56 pm |
594 | Joth | Robz | Sep-07-19 03:20:01 pm |
596 | MiX | Joseph | Sep-07-19 03:33:51 pm |
600 | Eddie | MiX | Sep-07-19 04:15:47 pm |
600 | Eddie | e | Sep-07-19 04:15:47 pm |
607 | MiX | Debatepro | Sep-07-19 05:35:17 pm |
608 | MiX | Joseph | Sep-07-19 05:43:19 pm |
614 | MiX | Pubby | Sep-07-19 06:10:06 pm |
633 | DatSwan | e | Sep-07-19 06:43:50 pm |
643 | EFHW | Pubby | Sep-07-19 08:32:30 pm |
654 | e | Pubby | Sep-07-19 02:17:11 am |
Overview of MiX votes w/ reasonsSo 4 people there who they voted for multiple times: me, Pubby, Debatepro and Glooble
Vote# Post# ---By--- ----For---- Notes 4 100 MiX Glooble RSV: No reason (NR) 10 132 MiX Pubby RSV: NR 21 271 MiX e 270 voted no duel bc didn't want to lynch e by default 23 305 MiX Joseph Your ADK duel reasoning is shite 24 325 MiX Awaclus Awaclus reasoning only makes sense later in game 26 342 MiX Debatepro NR: Awaclus as null NIA 30 382 MiX Glooble Will sheep Joth on Glooble 50 518 MiX Debatepro Vote Debatepro for sheeping 51 530 MiX Glooble Why did glooble think PR couldn't use them at any other night 52 535 MiX Debatepro NR 56 562 MiX Pubby Don't want to fight w/ debatepro, NR pubby 60 596 MiX Joseph Potential lynches pubby/Robz/Joseph/Glooble will reread [Moves off Pubby L2] 63 607 MiX Debatepro Lets vote here, NR. 64 608 MiX Joseph Joseph has setup related posts. 65 614 MiX Pubby Agree with DS bout Robz, Robz null, lets try Pubby
Of which, 2 (Pubby and I) are definitely town.
So if we trust MiX reads, Debatepro and Glooble would seem slightly scummier
MiX was town but that's no reason we should trust his reads
MiX was town but that's no reason we should trust his reads
He got nightkilled and that's a reason we should trust his reads.
So what is your analysis of that data?
Never on are more likely town?
Multiple votes more likely scum?
Data is useless without some sort of analysis
Trusting an IC is better than trusting people who could be scumOverview of MiX votes w/ reasonsSo 4 people there who they voted for multiple times: me, Pubby, Debatepro and Glooble
Vote# Post# ---By--- ----For---- Notes 4 100 MiX Glooble RSV: No reason (NR) 10 132 MiX Pubby RSV: NR 21 271 MiX e 270 voted no duel bc didn't want to lynch e by default 23 305 MiX Joseph Your ADK duel reasoning is shite 24 325 MiX Awaclus Awaclus reasoning only makes sense later in game 26 342 MiX Debatepro NR: Awaclus as null NIA 30 382 MiX Glooble Will sheep Joth on Glooble 50 518 MiX Debatepro Vote Debatepro for sheeping 51 530 MiX Glooble Why did glooble think PR couldn't use them at any other night 52 535 MiX Debatepro NR 56 562 MiX Pubby Don't want to fight w/ debatepro, NR pubby 60 596 MiX Joseph Potential lynches pubby/Robz/Joseph/Glooble will reread [Moves off Pubby L2] 63 607 MiX Debatepro Lets vote here, NR. 64 608 MiX Joseph Joseph has setup related posts. 65 614 MiX Pubby Agree with DS bout Robz, Robz null, lets try Pubby
Of which, 2 (Pubby and I) are definitely town.
So if we trust MiX reads, Debatepro and Glooble would seem slightly scummier
MiX was town but that's no reason we should trust his reads
unless anyone thinks we are getting a lynch off before the duel they should keep their reads to a minimum for now imo.Why do you say this?
that hurt my soul to say, but I stand by it.
unless anyone thinks we are getting a lynch off before the duel they should keep their reads to a minimum for now imo.
that hurt my soul to say, but I stand by it.
Trusting an IC is better than trusting people who could be scum. But I agree we shouldn't base everything off of it.MiX was town but that's no reason we should trust his readsOverview of MiX votes w/ reasonsSo 4 people there who they voted for multiple times: me, Pubby, Debatepro and Glooble. Of which, 2 (Pubby and I) are definitely town. So if we trust MiX reads, Debatepro and Glooble would seem slightly scummier
Vote# Post# ---By--- ----For---- Notes 10 132 MiX Pubby RSV: NR 56 562 MiX Pubby Don't want to fight w/ debatepro, NR pubby 65 614 MiX Pubby Agree with DS bout Robz, Robz null, lets try Pubby
If it's #1, who has an interest in indirectly killing glooble?
If it's #1, who has an interest in indirectly killing glooble?
Maybe someone who is afraid of Glooble's ability to read him? Maybe someone who's weak case on me day one failed to stick?
I just completely disagree that MiX was a viable mislynch target. The only player scumreading MiX at the end of the day was you.
I'm with Glooble on this. I haven't weighed in on why MiX was killed because I just thought it was obvious he was super townie.
The fact that he was the loan supporter of my Glooble lynch was probably just gravy when Glooble did the kill.
If it's #1, who has an interest in indirectly killing glooble?
Maybe someone who is afraid of Glooble's ability to read him? Maybe someone who's weak case on me day one failed to stick?
Why wouldn't I just kill you? Come on. MiX is hands down the last person I'd kill N1 if I were scum. He was the only one sheeping my reads!
Interesting.
Anyway, reason 1 that you wouldn't just kill me: I'm a mislynch waiting to happen. reason 2: It would have put a lot of suspicion on you.
If it's #1, who has an interest in indirectly killing glooble?
Maybe someone who is afraid of Glooble's ability to read him? Maybe someone who's weak case on me day one failed to stick?
Why wouldn't I just kill you? Come on. MiX is hands down the last person I'd kill N1 if I were scum. He was the only one sheeping my reads!
unless anyone thinks we are getting a lynch off before the duel they should keep their reads to a minimum for now imo.
that hurt my soul to say, but I stand by it.
If it's #1, who has an interest in indirectly killing glooble?
Maybe someone who is afraid of Glooble's ability to read him? Maybe someone who's weak case on me day one failed to stick?
Why wouldn't I just kill you? Come on. MiX is hands down the last person I'd kill N1 if I were scum. He was the only one sheeping my reads!
I think, if Joth were scum, he would exercise more caution than just blurting this out, yes?
unless anyone thinks we are getting a lynch off before the duel they should keep their reads to a minimum for now imo.
that hurt my soul to say, but I stand by it.
I disagree with this. Stifling discussion is anti-town. We want people to make the most informed decision possible when faced with the duel. If everyone generally views certain people as town or scum, then they appear in the duel, it is a fairly big data point once we know the success/failure of the duel.
True but on the other hand, the more we say, the more scum gets ideas what we might vote, and thus what's their safest vote claimunless anyone thinks we are getting a lynch off before the duel they should keep their reads to a minimum for now imo.
that hurt my soul to say, but I stand by it.
I disagree with this. Stifling discussion is anti-town. We want people to make the most informed decision possible when faced with the duel. If everyone generally views certain people as town or scum, then they appear in the duel, it is a fairly big data point once we know the success/failure of the duel.
Agree with this though. Duels are goodunless anyone thinks we are getting a lynch off before the duel they should keep their reads to a minimum for now imo.
that hurt my soul to say, but I stand by it.
I disagree with this. Stifling discussion is anti-town. We want people to make the most informed decision possible when faced with the duel. If everyone generally views certain people as town or scum, then they appear in the duel, it is a fairly big data point once we know the success/failure of the duel.
But also, the most informed decision includes weighing the huge benefits of getting a PR out of the duel
Phase 1 of day 2 starts now and ends at September 11, 05:00 Forum Time.
unless anyone thinks we are getting a lynch off before the duel they should keep their reads to a minimum for now imo.
that hurt my soul to say, but I stand by it.
I disagree with this. Stifling discussion is anti-town. We want people to make the most informed decision possible when faced with the duel. If everyone generally views certain people as town or scum, then they appear in the duel, it is a fairly big data point once we know the success/failure of the duel.
But also, the most informed decision includes weighing the huge benefits of getting a PR out of the duel
The argument I'm considering is that in the event that the proposed duel ends up being town vs scum, we want scum to have the least clear idea of their chances of winning. We can always have discussion after the vote
Ok, that seems fine.The argument I'm considering is that in the event that the proposed duel ends up being town vs scum, we want scum to have the least clear idea of their chances of winning. We can always have discussion after the vote
This ^^
Is what i was going for
I see e was concerned about stifling conversation. That is a consideration, but we want scum to be in the duel. So anything that increases that likelihood seems like a decent idea.Ok, that seems fine.The argument I'm considering is that in the event that the proposed duel ends up being town vs scum, we want scum to have the least clear idea of their chances of winning. We can always have discussion after the vote
This ^^
Is what i was going for
I’m camping I’m the worst, I’ll catch up and try harder
The argument I'm considering is that in the event that the proposed duel ends up being town vs scum, we want scum to have the least clear idea of their chances of winning. We can always have discussion after the vote
The argument I'm considering is that in the event that the proposed duel ends up being town vs scum, we want scum to have the least clear idea of their chances of winning. We can always have discussion after the vote
We get around this if we all just pledge to vote for the duel, and anyone who doesn't is considered automatically scum.
The argument I'm considering is that in the event that the proposed duel ends up being town vs scum, we want scum to have the least clear idea of their chances of winning. We can always have discussion after the vote
We get around this if we all just pledge to vote for the duel, and anyone who doesn't is considered automatically scum.
It's so tempting isn't it? Anyone wanna redo that day 1 math accounting for fewer scum?
The argument I'm considering is that in the event that the proposed duel ends up being town vs scum, we want scum to have the least clear idea of their chances of winning. We can always have discussion after the vote
We get around this if we all just pledge to vote for the duel, and anyone who doesn't is considered automatically scum.
The argument I'm considering is that in the event that the proposed duel ends up being town vs scum, we want scum to have the least clear idea of their chances of winning. We can always have discussion after the vote
We get around this if we all just pledge to vote for the duel, and anyone who doesn't is considered automatically scum.
It's so tempting isn't it? Anyone wanna redo that day 1 math accounting for fewer scum?
you mean for fewer town, right?
the math is slightly less relevant now that Day 1 is past and we have some flips. or I mean... not less relevant, but the important factor is simply "how likely is skum to be in the duel?"
Which is slightly over 50% if my head math is correct.
Joth v glooble looks pretty town v town. But I’m also not sold on either of the cases.
So if we do this plan it guarantees 6 yes votes for the duel. And if the duel fails we know that 1 person in that group of 6 is scum
It seems like a lot of effort organizing over a verysorry* period of time when people in America will probably just wake up to the duel option and not have a chance to weigh in on the plan until after the duel has started.
Maybe something to think about for D3, but not today
So if we do this plan it guarantees 6 yes votes for the duel. And if the duel fails we know that 1 person in that group of 6 is scumSounds like something feasible for another day
It seems like a lot of effort organizing over a very sorry period of time when people in America will probably just wake up to the duel option and not have a chance to weigh in on the plan until after the duel has started.
Maybe something to think about for D3, but not today
The only time I can remember is drunk mafia. And it was a no night chat game where I was desperately breadcrumbing my kill targets and he was missing them.
I really like ADK’s plan. And we have plenty of time to agree to it.
Oh we have a duel. Kind of didn't expect that
I voted for the duel, even though I have semi strong town reads on both Glooble and Jo. That's how much I wanted to duel!
I voted for the duel, even though I have semi strong town reads on both Glooble and Jo. That's how much I wanted to duel!
I voted yes on duel, and I'm now more skeptical of joth for switching his stance on duels for swan's plan, which accomplishes pretty much the same thing as everyone always voting yes
I voted yes on duel, and I'm now more skeptical of joth for switching his stance on duels for swan's plan, which accomplishes pretty much the same thing as everyone always voting yes
In my defense, I didn't really have to make a choice about the plan because I would have voted yes on this duel anyway.
I thought all the no duellers from yesterday would vote no againOh we have a duel. Kind of didn't expect that
You didn't expect people to vote yes on joth and glooble?
I voted no again. As I said I’m not convinced either joth or glooble are scum. I think the Pr is not going to be worth not getting any more cases made today. I think this duel was great for scum.
We also now have 3 of 4 duel participants voting for the duel. E, joth, and glooble.
I thought all the no duellers from yesterday would vote no againOh we have a duel. Kind of didn't expect that
You didn't expect people to vote yes on joth and glooble?
OTOH, the fact it got lots of yes votes could just mean it's town v town. But we may as well assume that isn't the case for now (as if it is then it's tough luck and we have to kill one of them)
Although I don't personally think they're both town anyway
I voted no again. As I said I’m not convinced either joth or glooble are scum. I think the Pr is not going to be worth not getting any more cases made today. I think this duel was great for scum.
We also now have 3 of 4 duel participants voting for the duel. E, joth, and glooble.
There's something really sad about the fact that MiX was the one who so badly wanted to see a twinfight, yet he's the one who's not around to see it.He can watch it from heaven aka the speccy.
Pour one out for our homie.
Based on that, Vote: Glooble
Vote: joth
This is L-5
I think Glooble is scum. vote: Glooble
-- clip --
Joseph, what happened betweenThinking time. And I need to think more to be honestBased on that, Vote: Glooble
andVote: joth
This is L-5
?
I would direct everyone to my original case on Glooble:I think Glooble is scum. vote: Glooble
-- clip --
He responded to that case in kind of a scummy way. Like an OMGUS with extra steps. It's possible that he's town who honestly doesn't believe I could misread him this badly as town, and is therefor voting for me for voting for him. That's not crazy logic. But it's equally possible that he's scum who knows the best argument against my case is to discredit me.
All game the root of my Glooble case is that all his scumreads feel fake and contrived. His scumread on me is no different. He reads like someone looking for a lynch (and.or for survival), not someone looking for scum.
I'll try to do some further rereading, but really my case on Glooble is largely out there already. I can only people are more inclined to agree with it than they were on Day 1.
I would direct everyone to my original case on Glooble:I think Glooble is scum. vote: Glooble
-- clip --
He responded to that case in kind of a scummy way. Like an OMGUS with extra steps. It's possible that he's town who honestly doesn't believe I could misread him this badly as town, and is therefor voting for me for voting for him. That's not crazy logic. But it's equally possible that he's scum who knows the best argument against my case is to discredit me.
All game the root of my Glooble case is that all his scumreads feel fake and contrived. His scumread on me is no different. He reads like someone looking for a lynch (and.or for survival), not someone looking for scum.
I'll try to do some further rereading, but really my case on Glooble is largely out there already. I can only people are more inclined to agree with it than they were on Day 1.
Honestly, joth's case on me is my #1 reason for thinking joth is scum. I don't in fact, believe he could misread me this badly as town. His slip up about saying he voted for the duel on day one because of my case on ADK when I had actually made a case on DatSwan also feels like a mistake much more likely to come from a scum joth trying to come up with a fake justification for a vote than from a town joth trying to decide how to vote.
If I was trying to stay alive I would %100 have voted against this duel. If I was scum my best defense against that case would not have been to turn on joth. That would have been a stupid play. It would have been better to either deflect to someone else or just ignore joth's case and let it blow over (which it more or less did, at least day one.) Because making a case on the person making a case on you looks scummy, and I'm aware of this, whether I'm scum or town. As town, I opted to do it anyway because finding scum is more important than keeping myself alive. As scum I absolutely would not have.
Joth is also aware of this, which is why he made his case on me out of no where before I could make a case on him. I still think this is the most plausible scenario - joth knows I can read him well enough that I'm going to start suspecting him eventually, so he makes a pre-emptive case on me to make my eventual turn on him look like OMGUS.
I voted no duel. Based on my reads I thought it was town versus potential town. I also feel like I have a stronger scum read on other players. I wanted to explore those other options.
Also misunderstood the PR rules. I thought scum had about 27% chance of receiving a PR to use.
I voted no duel. Based on my reads I thought it was town versus potential town. I also feel like I have a stronger scum read on other players. I wanted to explore those other options.
Also misunderstood the PR rules. I thought scum had about 27% chance of receiving a PR to use.
What other options did you want to explore?
vote: joth. I think his case on Glooble reads like a gambit.
I mean that it reads as more strategic than genuine to me.vote: joth. I think his case on Glooble reads like a gambit.
I don't really know what that means...
I mean that it reads as more strategic than genuine to me.vote: joth. I think his case on Glooble reads like a gambit.
I don't really know what that means...
There’s just no reason for scum to be so proactive so early. Early game scum is so much better off being reactive and opportunistic. That’s the difference between me and Glooble. I brought all this attention on myself by presenting one of the first real cases of the game. Glooble had the attention forced on him and is trying his best to redirect it. One of those is a position that it’s easy to imagine scum in. The other is a position it’s easy to imagine town in.
Even Glooble acknowledges that scum!joth wouldn’t just go after him arbitrarily or for fun. That’s why he had to make up that ridiculous, convoluted thing about me being worried I wouldn’t be able to fool him — despite him expressing no trace of a scum read on me prior to me articulating one on him. So why, why on earth, as scum, would I set myself up against the player who knows me best?
There’s just no reason for scum to be so proactive so early. Early game scum is so much better off being reactive and opportunistic. That’s the difference between me and Glooble. I brought all this attention on myself by presenting one of the first real cases of the game. Glooble had the attention forced on him and is trying his best to redirect it. One of those is a position that it’s easy to imagine scum in. The other is a position it’s easy to imagine town in.
Even Glooble acknowledges that scum!joth wouldn’t just go after him arbitrarily or for fun. That’s why he had to make up that ridiculous, convoluted thing about me being worried I wouldn’t be able to fool him — despite him expressing no trace of a scum read on me prior to me articulating one on him. So why, why on earth, as scum, would I set myself up against the player who knows me best?
There's every reason for scum to be proactive early, because doing so makes you look towny.
There’s just no reason for scum to be so proactive so early. Early game scum is so much better off being reactive and opportunistic. That’s the difference between me and Glooble. I brought all this attention on myself by presenting one of the first real cases of the game. Glooble had the attention forced on him and is trying his best to redirect it. One of those is a position that it’s easy to imagine scum in. The other is a position it’s easy to imagine town in.These are all reasonable points. But scum often use the "why would I do that" defense. I don't know your motivations, but I have to pick one of you, so there it is.
Even Glooble acknowledges that scum!joth wouldn’t just go after him arbitrarily or for fun. That’s why he had to make up that ridiculous, convoluted thing about me being worried I wouldn’t be able to fool him — despite him expressing no trace of a scum read on me prior to me articulating one on him. So why, why on earth, as scum, would I set myself up against the player who knows me best?
There’s just no reason for scum to be so proactive so early. Early game scum is so much better off being reactive and opportunistic. That’s the difference between me and Glooble. I brought all this attention on myself by presenting one of the first real cases of the game. Glooble had the attention forced on him and is trying his best to redirect it. One of those is a position that it’s easy to imagine scum in. The other is a position it’s easy to imagine town in.
Even Glooble acknowledges that scum!joth wouldn’t just go after him arbitrarily or for fun. That’s why he had to make up that ridiculous, convoluted thing about me being worried I wouldn’t be able to fool him — despite him expressing no trace of a scum read on me prior to me articulating one on him. So why, why on earth, as scum, would I set myself up against the player who knows me best?
There's every reason for scum to be proactive early, because doing so makes you look towny.
Sure, and that WIFOM argument exists with every "scum wouldn't do X" argument. BUT my position is that the most important thing for scum day 1 is not to look townie, it's to stay under the radar. You can worry about looking townie later on, but not being the day 1 lynch is priority number one. And despite how much we talk about lynching lurkers, we actually tend to lynch someone who DID something. Someone who put themselves out there like I did, opening myself up for scumreads. So if I'm scum, I took a big risk for a small gain. And that's a good way to lose games. Scum has to be bold sometimes, but it's when the stakes are high and something's on the line, not when it's just as easy to sit back and see what happens.
There’s just no reason for scum to be so proactive so early. Early game scum is so much better off being reactive and opportunistic. That’s the difference between me and Glooble. I brought all this attention on myself by presenting one of the first real cases of the game. Glooble had the attention forced on him and is trying his best to redirect it. One of those is a position that it’s easy to imagine scum in. The other is a position it’s easy to imagine town in.
Even Glooble acknowledges that scum!joth wouldn’t just go after him arbitrarily or for fun. That’s why he had to make up that ridiculous, convoluted thing about me being worried I wouldn’t be able to fool him — despite him expressing no trace of a scum read on me prior to me articulating one on him. So why, why on earth, as scum, would I set myself up against the player who knows me best?
IF Glooble is the NK, THE Joth is suspect #1.
IF Glooble is the NK, THE Joth is suspect #1.
This is only true because I accused Glooble D1. But if I was really scum scared that Glooble would out me (again, and I think this is important, with no evidence whatsoever that he was scumreading me prior to me making my case), I would just skip the case and talk my team into nightkilling him night 1. Then Glooble would be dead and it wouldn't implicate me at all.
Also, if I were scum, don't you think one of my partners would be helping me out here? Do you really think the only person on my side would be Awaclus the monosyllabic?
IF Glooble is the NK, THE Joth is suspect #1.
This is only true because I accused Glooble D1. But if I was really scum scared that Glooble would out me (again, and I think this is important, with no evidence whatsoever that he was scumreading me prior to me making my case), I would just skip the case and talk my team into nightkilling him night 1. Then Glooble would be dead and it wouldn't implicate me at all.
Also, if I were scum, don't you think one of my partners would be helping me out here? Do you really think the only person on my side would be Awaclus the monosyllabic?
I am on your side
IF Glooble is the NK, THE Joth is suspect #1.
This is only true because I accused Glooble D1. But if I was really scum scared that Glooble would out me (again, and I think this is important, with no evidence whatsoever that he was scumreading me prior to me making my case), I would just skip the case and talk my team into nightkilling him night 1. Then Glooble would be dead and it wouldn't implicate me at all.
Also, if I were scum, don't you think one of my partners would be helping me out here? Do you really think the only person on my side would be Awaclus the monosyllabic?
I am on your side
Thanks partner.
IF Glooble is the NK, THE Joth is suspect #1.
This is only true because I accused Glooble D1. But if I was really scum scared that Glooble would out me (again, and I think this is important, with no evidence whatsoever that he was scumreading me prior to me making my case), I would just skip the case and talk my team into nightkilling him night 1. Then Glooble would be dead and it wouldn't implicate me at all.
Also, if I were scum, don't you think one of my partners would be helping me out here? Do you really think the only person on my side would be Awaclus the monosyllabic?
I'm not at all sure that's true. What did pubby do, exactly, to end up the day 1 lynch?
Scum has an incentive to sit back in this duel and move with the herd, that way they don't put their necks on the line if/when glooble or joth flip town. If they flip scum, then they get to say they were on it.The people sitting back are mcmc, Awaclus and Eddie.
Scum has an incentive to sit back in this duel and move with the herd, that way they don't put their necks on the line if/when glooble or joth flip town. If they flip scum, then they get to say they were on it.The people sitting back are mcmc, Awaclus and Eddie.
We should definitely duel Day 1, for science if nothing elseAgreed. Because not duelling all game will make this a boring, difficult game. We need the PRs
We need to run some pure vanilla games so this town stops being so dependent on PRs.
All my math is wrong because I thought there were only 13 of us.- His math was in fact wrong because there are 14 not 13. I will admit I am bias, because I also thought there were 13 not 14. Skum doesn't make that error. Especially when posting math type stuff. He then follows it up again with more re-corrected math. Just not a line I see skum joth taking.
But what is this plurality thing everyone’s talking about? I don’t see it in the setup info.
Correct math:
chance of town v town: 49.4%
Chance of town v scum: 47.4%
Chance of scum v scum: 3.2%
That math is a bit better (since we’re better than even odds to have a chance of lynching scum, albeit just barely) but still favors scum I think.
Check-in:- Towny. Just the vibe of it. Or at least... not skummy.
Claimed yes vote
e
Probable yes vote
Robz888
Joseph2302
Claimed no vote
pubby
mcmcsalot
Glooble
ADK
EFHW
MiX
Hasn't claimed
Awaclus
Debatepro
I0X
joth
DatSwan
So unless all five of us who have yet to claim voted yes, Awaclus is right: this isn't going to tell us anything. And I'm sure you can all figure out how I voted.
I think knowing how everyone voted will be useful later when we have flips. So we might as well force people to commit to an answer now?
I would like debate and Awaclus and 0iX to claim.What about DatSwan?
Him too.
1) Joth since you were so persistent on getting others to claim... and you know Awaclus isn't... and I0X is the new guy... either a reason for not claiming or claim it up pretty please.
I was being coy because there was a very specific circumstance where I might have been able to gotcha scum, but with your claim that dream is dead.
I think Glooble is scum. vote: Glooble
I have been thinking this for a while but I didn't want to say it because I know some people assign a lot of weight to our reads on each other. I would ask you to pay attention to the case itself rather than that.
So this is more or less all of Glooble's posts and why they make him scummy. There are two parts to the case, plus a random scumtell.
1) He has played it as safe as one possibly could in the duel conversation, up until the point where having a strong opinion could actually help scum, at which point he developed one.
2) His case-making has been tentative, perfunctory, and unconvincing. His attempts at scumhunting read performative, and I think he's better than that when he's actually trying.I'm neither pro-duel nor anti-duel. I will vote for a duel if I think it has a reasonably good chance of containing scum, and I will vote against a duel if it's more likely to me that both players are town. I'm not sure I see the advantage of having a default preference for duel or no duel.
This is exactly how scum positions themselves if they want to be safe however they vote. And it has the advantage of looking like a very sensible, towny position and staying neutral in the back and forth.vote: DatSwan
Hard to articulate exactly why but I’m getting a strong scum vibe off of his analysis posts. I’m trying to trust my gut more.clip -- Glooble's Swan case -- clip
These two posts, together and individually, just really feel to me like someone who is trying to make a case, not someone who is trying to determine who scum is. It feels like the kind of case-making that you do when you know you’re not actually scumhunting. The fact that he states the vibe first and then makes the case further reinforces the idea that he wasn't so much looking for scum as choosing a person then building a case on them.Well that was fun while it lasted. I now think DatSwan is town.
vote: pubby I guess?
And he immediately backs off the case when it fails to gain traction.If we’re ignoring MiX’s set order I’ll go ahead and say I voted no. I’m townreading ADK, e hadn’t really said enough to give me a read one way or the other, and I honestly didn’t think the power role gained would have been particularly useful on night one, especially with information twisted as it would have been by the duel.
Safe vote explanation, set up by his prior post.MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default
Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead
Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.
Meh. That's such a non-post.
I wasn’t calling you scummy for it. Sorry if it came off that way. I was just being flip.
This is actually the post that made me start looking at Glooble. Overly-apologetic/defensive is my top scumtell, though I know not everyone’s a fan.Also for now I want to Vote: ADK
My theory being that if there's a duel with a scum on it, then that's 50/50 that the scum does, compared to 3/14 with no duel
So in my mind, the no duel makes it slightly more likely that one of the duellers were scum. And as I'm agreeing more with the e logic, ADK seems like a better vote
What you're missing is the fact that the scum in this scenario have two people who they know will vote for their opponent if necessary. That makes getting involved in the duel a lot safer for them. I think if I were scum I would vote for the duel unless the townie I was up against had a ton of towncred. And frankly, neither ADK nor e had that amount of towncred going into this vote.
This isn’t scummy in and of itself, but if scum voted no, it behooves scum to get town looking at claimed yes-voters.
This is not a do or die case for me. I like playing with Glooble and I'd rather not D1 lynch him. And certainly I could be wrong, though my gut says I'm not. So my question, as always, is … what else ya got?
vote: debatepro
Look at the current wagons:
Robz888 (5): e, EFHW, Debatepro, pubby, Glooble
Debatepro (4): A Drowned Kernel, DatSwan, MiX, jotheonah
pubby (4): mcmcsalot, Robz888, Joseph2302, Awaclus
Man, if the twin fight doesn't have scum in it...I'll wake up from the dream.
So is it a bad idea to vote yes on the duel d1?
I think it's a bad idea if you think both combatants are town and a good idea if you think one of them is scum.
I don't think this is how scum!MiX plays day one in this setup. The votes-that-aren't-really votes thing especially is something that seems so scummy that scum wouldn't do it.
I think that scum!mix is self-aware enough to know that this is how town!mix would probably open things up and emulate it. Nothing he's said so far screams town to me
vote: mix
I agree that MiX is self-aware but I also think that MiX could find townier and scummier lines of play that both read as authentically MiX-like and I don't think he chooses the scummiest one as scum.
OTOH, We always try to lynch MiX day one and we never succeed, so maybe MiX is counting on that trend continuing.
I'm neither pro-duel nor anti-duel. I will vote for a duel if I think it has a reasonably good chance of containing scum, and I will vote against a duel if it's more likely to me that both players are town. I'm not sure I see the advantage of having a default preference for duel or no duel.
vote: DatSwan
Hard to articulate exactly why but I’m getting a strong scum vibe off of his analysis posts. I’m trying to trust my gut more.
Please try, do you disagree with his analysis? Do you think the analysis is pushing us in a direction? Do you think the analysis is redundant? Do you think town!swan is unlikely to make analysis like that? Do you think scum!swan benefits from that analysis post?Day 1 Duel: It is 100%, almost unarguably, wrong to go for the duel on Day 1.
I am not saying the duel concept is bad. For every negative there is a potential positive. Examples:
a) Items - Town could get a PR, or skum could get the fake claim.
b) % chance vs control vs plurality - it would seem the % chance of having a skum selected day 1 is fairly similar to randomly choosing a player to lynch day 1. The difference is that it does take some control away from skum in the duel setting. Without the duel we need 8 to lynch, with the duel it is just majority. However, on day one we assume we will lynch town... that does not change just because there is a duel. So it gives skum less control over keeping one of their own alive, but only if one of their own is selected... if it is TownvTown... it is all bad news.
---This is the important one---
c) Information - When we isolate the field to 2 players the info we have to look back on is EXTREMELY LIMITED. If we roll SkumVTown and go to lynch it could prove useful. However, that cannot be an expectation. If the mod selects player A and player B to duel and we have to choose between them... we can still just say no and have the chance at lynching player A or Player B. The argument against would be to put skum in a tough spot with plurality and take the duel to force a lynch... but it is day one... so the only people that actually know anything are skum.
This post is sort of null on the balance- he starts with "100%, inarguably wrong" but then follows it up with a post that sort of presents the arguments for and against, so its hardly "unarguable". But that kind of bold, black and white statement feels to me like scum!swan trying to get town points by taking a strong stance. Then bullet point b is just a lot of talking without saying much of anything, which is scummy. I will give Swan town points for point C though, it's a good point and not something I would necessarily bring up as scum.Turns out by waiting I now agree with MiX in his anti-duel sentiments. I have been considering just voting no on all duels (unless a super strong scum read is one of the contenders). I was concerned it was unsporting though, to join a duel based game and then not support any duels. I think it is very likely the game will drag on duel days. And we'll have so much less opportunity to form reads. Finally, 1-shot abilities very often come to nothing, especially when you don't get to pick which night to use them.
I don't think it's scummy to want duels, but it is scummy to vote someone for not wanting a duel.
At the beginning of the game, I think scum will want duels. As POE gets tighter, then they will want them less and less.
Why do you think the game will drag when there is a duel. Unless things have radically changed in my recent absence things can't drag anymore than they already do. I think duels will result in much quicker lynches then non duel days. I agree reads are sort of limited by duels but they allow more forced interactions so a little moot.
The game will drag by definition because of the plurality addition.
1) Town v Town - no reason for skum to put their neck out, they win either way.
2) Town v Skum - skum will sit back and let town get all their thoughts out before acting
3) Skum v Skum - this is the worst because we wouldn't assume it is a thing and until the end of game it would absolve a player from the lynch pool.
This was the post that felt really scummy to me. I think it's just the way he's setting up expectations for exactly how he thinks scum will play it. Maybe so he can act differently and then use his theory for how scum would play to defend his play/ his teammates' play as townie? I don't know, it's not a strong case, he just feels off to me.
Well that was fun while it lasted. I now think DatSwan is town.
vote: pubby I guess?
If we’re ignoring MiX’s set order I’ll go ahead and say I voted no. I’m townreading ADK, e hadn’t really said enough to give me a read one way or the other, and I honestly didn’t think the power role gained would have been particularly useful on night one, especially with information twisted as it would have been by the duel.
MiX: doesn’t want to lynch e by default
Also MiX: wants to lynch e the regular way instead
Well then I guess ADK's also scum for doing the same thing... I would rather have a real day than a random lynch (E loses the duel everytime anyway) and a one-shot PR.
Meh. That's such a non-post.
I wasn’t calling you scummy for it. Sorry if it came off that way. I was just being flip.
Look, last game I had a scummy feeling about pingpongsam all game, but I never acted on it because I didn't have evidence. It turned out pps was scum. A few games ago on lynchpool I caught scum!shraeye based pretty much entirely on a gut read that I couldn't articulate. So I resolved to start trusting my reads more, hence the vote for Swan without explanation. Then mcmcsalot called me on it and everybody said they were townreading Swan, so I looked more closely, and figured out what it was I found scummy, but I also found some towny stuff in that reread. I didn't back off because the lynch wasn't gaining traction, I backed off because he made a post that felt very townie and changed my read on him.
I'm flattered that you think I'm better than this as town, but the fact is my day 1 cases as town pretty much always suck (and often they're on DatSwan.)
Your case on me, though, is, frankly below your usual standards.
Like, I guess its a fine day one case? It's completely wrong, but so subjective that there's nothing in it that I can argue against.
1) Joth since you were so persistent on getting others to claim... and you know Awaclus isn't... and I0X is the new guy... either a reason for not claiming or claim it up pretty please.
I was being coy because there was a very specific circumstance where I might have been able to gotcha scum, but with your claim that dream is dead.
At the last minute, I voted yes for the duel. It was a change in my previous thinking. For one thing, ADK had been scumread by Glooble, who I tend to trust, and e wasn’t having an exceptionally townie game. It felt like they were both decent day 1 lynches. And partly I felt it would be better for the vote to be closer, for this scenario we’re in right now.
Here's a thing - joth is saying he, at least partially, based his vote on my scum case against ADK, which was actually against DatSwan. Joth had a whole day to decide yes or no. You'd think he would have reread. I did. But if he had reread he would have seen that my case was on Swan. This seems like an easier mistake for scum!joth to have made while coming up with a townie justification for his vote.
DatSwan - leaning town but still a tiny bit suspicious
Awaclus - he is acting less belligerent than usual, but I refuse to lynch him for that
jotheonah - not that scummy but scummier than anyone else to me right now
Glooble - town
Joseph2302 - null
2.71828..... - I could be convinced to vote here. I should reread.
0Ix - who?
Debatepro - can't remember anything he's done this game
MiX - townish
EFHW - town
A Drowned Kernel - probably town, despite our disagreements about how scum would act
Robz888 - null, this new meta sucks
pubby - was leaning scum, now leaning null
mcmcsalot - town
As scum I would absolutely just make shit up, but I don't do that as town. So if I have no strong scumreads, you get a readlist with no strong scumreads.
There is a third option you know, besides "make stuff up" and "make a list with no strong scumreads". I wonder if you can guess what it is...
Pull an Awaclus and refuse to make a list?
Glooble (1): jotheonah
jotheonah (1): Glooble
Can both of you (especially Glooble) explain what this is supposed to mean to everyone else?
This is my way of asking "why is he the scummiest player" to both of you.
I still think joth’s more than likely scum. But you’re right, it’s not a useful place to have my vote right now.
I’m gonna join this Robz train. He’s a very good joth partner candidate.
vote: Robz
Glooble/Joth: Who is skum?
I voted no again. As I said I’m not convinced either joth or glooble are scum. I think the Pr is not going to be worth not getting any more cases made today. I think this duel was great for scum.
We also now have 3 of 4 duel participants voting for the duel. E, joth, and glooble.
Vote Count 2.4
Glooble (2): Awaclus, jotheonah
jothenoah (3): Glooble, Joseph2302, EFHW
Not Voting (7): Uncleeurope, DatSwan, mcmcsalot, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel, e, Debatepro, Glooble
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on September 18, 05:00 forum time.
Glooble/Joth: Who is skum?
other than people you are related to
Glooble/Joth: Who is skum?
other than people you are related to
I voted no again. As I said I’m not convinced either joth or glooble are scum. I think the Pr is not going to be worth not getting any more cases made today. I think this duel was great for scum.
We also now have 3 of 4 duel participants voting for the duel. E, joth, and glooble.
what is more interesting is that both Joth and Glooble supposedly voted yes to this engagement of the duel. There really hasn't been any sway one way or another in terms of majority on the two of them if I am remember correctly. The fact that either of them would think they could win against the other is strange to me.
I voted no again. As I said I’m not convinced either joth or glooble are scum. I think the Pr is not going to be worth not getting any more cases made today. I think this duel was great for scum.
We also now have 3 of 4 duel participants voting for the duel. E, joth, and glooble.
what is more interesting is that both Joth and Glooble supposedly voted yes to this engagement of the duel. There really hasn't been any sway one way or another in terms of majority on the two of them if I am remember correctly. The fact that either of them would think they could win against the other is strange to me.
Look at day 1 pre-duel. Glooble was the leading wagon. Seemed like lots of folks were itching to vote for him. I figured this would be a slam dunk and I’m genuinely surprised it’s so contentious.
Vote Count 1.6
Glooble (3): jotheonah, MiX, A Drowned Kernel
Robz888 (1): pubby
jotheonah (2): Glooble, EFHW
e (1): DatSwan
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (3): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302, Robz888
Not Voting (3): Debatepro, Uncleeurope, e
Vote Count 1.6
....
So this is the largest Glooble wagon I could find D1. I think pre-duel D1 "itching to vote" is a lot different than "itching to lynch"
I think that scum could very well have stayed away from Glooble and ignored the growing wagon hoping a duel would get rid of their problems.
Basically, ADK and I are reading the same thing, ADK thinks it makes joth look scummy, I think it makes Glooble look scummy
Sorry, Day 2 pre-duel
Vote# | Post# | ---By--- | ---For--- | ---------TimeStamp----- | Notes |
D2-1 | 636 | Awaclus | Glooble | Sept 09 04:16:34 am | NR |
D2-2 | 671 | e | Awaclus | Sept 09 05:24:13 am | NR-Scummy and opportunistic (673) |
D2-3 | 684 | ADK | e | Sept 09 08:44:08 am | NR |
D2-4 | 685 | ADK | Glooble | Sept 09 08:46:43 am | NR |
D2-5 | 687 | Joth | Robz | Sept 09 08:58:15 am | Pointing others on Pubby wagon, lame, Robz scummiest on wagon IMO |
D2-6 | 701 | Glooble | ADK | Sept 09 11:07:09 AM | Awaclus, ADK, Robz voted for pubby, mix, and glooble. (701) |
D2-7 | 726 | Joseph | Glooble | Sept 09 03:07:32 pm | 725 based on debates data, MiX votes for Glooble/Debate must be one of them |
D2-8 | 737 | Eddie | Awaclus | Sept 10 06:34:39 am | Awaclus or Glooble evil, Awaclus has fewer votes |
Glooble/Joth: Who is skum?
other than people you are related to
What is this supposed to accomplish?
Swan, if reads lists are a horrible idea for town, that is way more scum points for the guy who suggested them than the guy who followed. But I stand by my argument that making the list I made makes no sense for a scum player.
The only time I “sheeped” joth was on pubby, and at that point I was still townreading him. I didn’t start scum reading him until his case on me.
BtW I’m not going to be available most of today.
Glooble/Joth: Who is skum?
other than people you are related to
What is this supposed to accomplish?
You’re smart - math it out
Vote Count 1.6
....
So this is the largest Glooble wagon I could find D1. I think pre-duel D1 "itching to vote" is a lot different than "itching to lynch"
I think that scum could very well have stayed away from Glooble and ignored the growing wagon hoping a duel would get rid of their problems.
Basically, ADK and I are reading the same thing, ADK thinks it makes joth look scummy, I think it makes Glooble look scummy
Unless I am missing something, Joth amended his statement to D2 pre-duel in the next post.Sorry, Day 2 pre-duel
This is the latest vote count prior to the announcement of the duel.
Glooble (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Awaclus (2): e, eddie
Robz (1): Joth
ADK (1): Glooble
Not Voting: DatSwan, Debatepro, EFHW, Robz, MCMC
Vote# Post# ---By--- ---For--- ---------TimeStamp----- Notes D2-1 636 Awaclus Glooble Sept 09 04:16:34 am NR D2-2 671 e Awaclus Sept 09 05:24:13 am NR-Scummy and opportunistic (673) D2-3 684 ADK e Sept 09 08:44:08 am NR D2-4 685 ADK Glooble Sept 09 08:46:43 am NR D2-5 687 Joth Robz Sept 09 08:58:15 am Pointing others on Pubby wagon, lame, Robz scummiest on wagon IMO D2-6 701 Glooble ADK Sept 09 11:07:09 AM Awaclus, ADK, Robz voted for pubby, mix, and glooble. (701) D2-7 726 Joseph Glooble Sept 09 03:07:32 pm 725 based on debates data, MiX votes for Glooble/Debate must be one of them D2-8 737 Eddie Awaclus Sept 10 06:34:39 am Awaclus or Glooble evil, Awaclus has fewer votes
Vote Count 1.6
....
So this is the largest Glooble wagon I could find D1. I think pre-duel D1 "itching to vote" is a lot different than "itching to lynch"
I think that scum could very well have stayed away from Glooble and ignored the growing wagon hoping a duel would get rid of their problems.
Basically, ADK and I are reading the same thing, ADK thinks it makes joth look scummy, I think it makes Glooble look scummy
Unless I am missing something, Joth amended his statement to D2 pre-duel in the next post.Sorry, Day 2 pre-duel
This is the latest vote count prior to the announcement of the duel.
Glooble (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Awaclus (2): e, eddie
Robz (1): Joth
ADK (1): Glooble
Not Voting: DatSwan, Debatepro, EFHW, Robz, MCMC
Vote# Post# ---By--- ---For--- ---------TimeStamp----- Notes D2-1 636 Awaclus Glooble Sept 09 04:16:34 am NR D2-2 671 e Awaclus Sept 09 05:24:13 am NR-Scummy and opportunistic (673) D2-3 684 ADK e Sept 09 08:44:08 am NR D2-4 685 ADK Glooble Sept 09 08:46:43 am NR D2-5 687 Joth Robz Sept 09 08:58:15 am Pointing others on Pubby wagon, lame, Robz scummiest on wagon IMO D2-6 701 Glooble ADK Sept 09 11:07:09 AM Awaclus, ADK, Robz voted for pubby, mix, and glooble. (701) D2-7 726 Joseph Glooble Sept 09 03:07:32 pm 725 based on debates data, MiX votes for Glooble/Debate must be one of them D2-8 737 Eddie Awaclus Sept 10 06:34:39 am Awaclus or Glooble evil, Awaclus has fewer votes
Thank you debate. If you were me and you saw that vote count, wouldn’t you vote for the duel? It’s less clear why Glooble would vote yes.
Thank you debate. If you were me and you saw that vote count, wouldn’t you vote for the duel? It’s less clear why Glooble would vote yes.
Glooble/Joth: Who is skum?
other than people you are related to
What is this supposed to accomplish?
You’re smart - math it out
Well, the goal that it mostly seems to contribute towards is a scum victory.
They literally are voting based on the proposition that scum thought MiX’s reads were good.
Glooble/Joth: Who is skum?
other than people you are related to
What is this supposed to accomplish?
You’re smart - math it out
Well, the goal that it mostly seems to contribute towards is a scum victory.
How is that?
They literally are voting based on the proposition that scum thought MiX’s reads were good.What makes you think that?
I just completely disagree that MiX was a viable mislynch target.I guess that's why you killed him.
MiX was town but that's no reason we should trust his readsHe got nightkilled and that's a reason we should trust his reads.
Vote: Glooble
They literally are voting based on the proposition that scum thought MiX’s reads were good.What makes you think that?
These.I just completely disagree that MiX was a viable mislynch target.I guess that's why you killed him.MiX was town but that's no reason we should trust his readsHe got nightkilled and that's a reason we should trust his reads.Vote: Glooble
That isn't why I'm voting, that's a debunking of Glooble's attempt to defend himself after I was already voting.
That isn't why I'm voting, that's a debunking of Glooble's attempt to defend himself after I was already voting.
We can only work with reasons you provide. It is, by proxy, your reason until you provide some alternative explanation.
Who hasn't decided and what would help?
Had e stated his likely vote?
IF Glooble is the NK, THE Joth is suspect #1.
This is only true because I accused Glooble D1. But if I was really scum scared that Glooble would out me (again, and I think this is important, with no evidence whatsoever that he was scumreading me prior to me making my case), I would just skip the case and talk my team into nightkilling him night 1. Then Glooble would be dead and it wouldn't implicate me at all.
Also, if I were scum, don't you think one of my partners would be helping me out here? Do you really think the only person on my side would be Awaclus the monosyllabic?
I am on your side
I have been reading, sorry. I just haven’t thought of anything to say for whatever reason.
4:4 now
It's 7 to lynch, so guess you did4:4 now
I should really look at vote counts. Did I seriously just hammer because I was lazy and just thought this was correct?
Ok, that clarifies things.Oh, the 6 or 7 votes must have included people with preference to vote Glooble
Vote: GloobleUnannounced L-1.
Vote# | Post# | ---By--- | ---For--- | Notes |
D2-1 | 636 | Awaclus | Glooble | NR |
D2-2 | 671 | e | Awaclus | NR-Scummy and opportunistic (673) |
D2-3 | 684 | ADK | e | NR |
D2-4 | 685 | ADK | Glooble | NR |
D2-5 | 687 | Joth | Robz | Pointing others on Pubby wagon, lame, Robz scummiest on wagon IMO |
D2-6 | 701 | Glooble | ADK | Awaclus, ADK, Robz voted for pubby, mix, and glooble. (701) |
D2-7 | 726 | Joseph | Glooble | 725 based on debates data, MiX votes for Glooble/Debate must be one of them |
D2-8 | 737 | Eddie | Awaclus | Awaclus or Glooble evil, Awaclus has fewer votes |
D2-9 | 790 | Glooble | Joth | DUEL: Glooble V Joth |
D2-10 | 791 | Awaclus | Glooble | NR |
D2-11 | 795 | Joth | Glooble | BC |
D2-12 | 811 | Joseph | Joth | NR |
D2-13 | 826 | EFHW | Joth | Glooble case reads gambit |
D2-14 | 848 | DatSwan | Glooble | Weak case for Town!Joth (847) & Scum!Glooble (849) |
D2-15 | 883 | Joseph | Glooble | NR |
D2-16 | 884 | Joseph | Joth | NR |
D2-17 | 885 | Joseph | Glooble | NR |
D2-18 | 887 | Debatepro | Joth | NR - except all the other posts about why joth is the right vote. |
D2-19 | 899 | e | Glooble | NR |
D2-20 | 907 | Robz | Glooble | Unannounced L1 |
My head says glooble, my gut says joth. I'll do a reread tonight if no one's hammered
@Eddie- Did you vote yes or no to the duel?
@Eddie- Did you vote yes or no to the duel?Why is this important to know?
Seriously, what a cop-out
Did a sort of skimmy re-read, mostly just reading joth's and glooble's posts
Intent to hammer glooble
#1 - I abstained from voting.
#2 - I am kind of in Datswan’s camp in that I don’t really have a strong preference one way or the other and am worried that this flip might influence my read on the other wrongly.
#3 - So I voted yes for the power and no for the duel by not voting.
#4 - It makes sense, I promise.
This decision is completely different from voting yes for the duel and no for the power.
Yeah, I’ll vote later.
Willing to hammer either of them at the moment, as mentioned earlier.
Seriously, what a cop-out
^^scum^^
My head says glooble, my gut says joth. I'll do a reread tonight if no one's hammered
Did a sort of skimmy re-read, mostly just reading joth's and glooble's posts
Intent to hammer glooble
Seriously, what a cop-out^^scum^^
If E actually thought this, they would of torn eddie apart. This is not a Town!E response to this situation.
wow there is like nothing that has been said today, that is all I have.
Vote Count 2.5
Glooble (5): Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e
jothenoah (3): Glooble, EFHW, Debatepro
Not Voting (4): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on September 18, 05:00 forum time.
wow there is like nothing that has been said today, that is all I have.Yes it's been a really slow day
All that to say, if one of the two is scum, it is likely Glooble.I would draw the opposite conclusion. The uncomplicated lynching of Glooble here suggests he is town. If you think scum is disengaged, like you said you do think, how does that lead you to the conclusion Glooble is scum?
This is misleading. Robz voted and ADK just stated intent to hammer.Vote Count 2.5
Glooble (5): Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e
jothenoah (3): Glooble, EFHW, Debatepro
Not Voting (4): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on September 18, 05:00 forum time.
Very interested in taking a good look at the not voting people here tomorrow
All that to say, if one of the two is scum, it is likely Glooble.I would draw the opposite conclusion. The uncomplicated lynching of Glooble here suggests he is town. If you think scum is disengaged, like you said you do think, how does that lead you to the conclusion Glooble is scum?
Could be, but e said his reasoning led him to conclude Glooble was scum but that's not the logical conclusion from his reasoning.All that to say, if one of the two is scum, it is likely Glooble.I would draw the opposite conclusion. The uncomplicated lynching of Glooble here suggests he is town. If you think scum is disengaged, like you said you do think, how does that lead you to the conclusion Glooble is scum?
Scum could be Glooble, you, Debatepro.
Yeah, I’ll vote later.We don't need a hammer, it's plurality lynch. You're essentially abstaining again. I don't know if that is scummy. But for town to somehow reach the correct answer, all the town players need to do their best in making a choice.
Willing to hammer either of them at the moment, as mentioned earlier.
All that to say, if one of the two is scum, it is likely Glooble.I would draw the opposite conclusion. The uncomplicated lynching of Glooble here suggests he is town. If you think scum is disengaged, like you said you do think, how does that lead you to the conclusion Glooble is scum?
Scum could be Glooble, you, Debatepro.
My head says glooble, my gut says joth. I'll do a reread tonight if no one's hammeredDid a sort of skimmy re-read, mostly just reading joth's and glooble's posts
Intent to hammer glooble
What soothed your gut from the re read?
#1 - I abstained from voting.
#2 - I am kind of in Datswan’s camp in that I don’t really have a strong preference one way or the other and am worried that this flip might influence my read on the other wrongly.
#3 - So I voted yes for the power and no for the duel by not voting.
#4 - It makes sense, I promise.
This decision is completely different from voting yes for the duel and no for the power.Yeah, I’ll vote later.
Willing to hammer either of them at the moment, as mentioned earlier.
#1 - Either you thought one was 1 skum, 2 were skum, or none were skum. You not voting lowers the thresh hold of needed yes votes to *potentially* only 5 with 3 skum in the game. So, if you thought there was 1 skum... ok I guess as like an almost trap plus the PR benefits... but you can't follow that up with "I will vote for anyone". If you thought both were skum, then it would check out I suppose... except your lack of effort on the day (and of course claiming the no vote) really is weird there. If you thought both were town it is just dumb.
#2 - No you are not. People are not allowed in this camp that throw out willy nilly "I will vote for anyone" crap. Trust me, I sell the tents. I DO have a preference either way. I made that like abundantly clear in my 2 wall posts. I simply think I am picking between a "skum and a hard place". But when chosen to pick, I am made it pretty cut that I am on Glooble.
#3 - This is not how that works. By not voting you lowered the thresh hold of needed yes votes to make the duel happen. Also, there cannot be a PR without a duel. So, even in a world where you can word that differently... it just doesn't make sense. You need to vote in a fashion that favors the duel in order to favor the PR, and vice versa.
#4 - No. None of it does.
... Duels
...
... [1] For the rest of the day, only votes for the two dueling players are valid. All other votes (including a no-lynch vote) will have no effect. At the end of the day1, the player with more votes is lynched (if it is a tie, a virtual coin is flipped). Either one may still be lynched earlier via majority vote 2.
...
Does the day end when plurality is reached or at the deadline1? Also, is the plurality v. majority distinction worthless because 1. there are only two in the duel and 2. "Either one may still be lynched earlier via a majority vote."2The day ends at the deadline or at majority vote. Otherwise, it would have ended a long time ago. It's not meaningless because there is no consequence of no lynch if we can't find a majority.... Duels
...
... [1] For the rest of the day, only votes for the two dueling players are valid. All other votes (including a no-lynch vote) will have no effect. At the end of the day1, the player with more votes is lynched (if it is a tie, a virtual coin is flipped). Either one may still be lynched earlier via majority vote 2.
...
vote: glooble
vote: glooble
this was the hammer, no?
Vote Count 2.5
Glooble (5): Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e
jothenoah (3): Glooble, EFHW, Debatepro
Not Voting (4): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends on September 18, 05:00 forum time.
Vote: Glooble
vote: glooble
Wait, yes it was.
Well, good luck guys. If joth turns out to be town, I'm sorry I tunnelled so hard. If joth turns out to be scum I'm sorry I didn't tunnel harder.
Wait, yes it was.
Well, good luck guys. If joth turns out to be town, I'm sorry I tunnelled so hard. If joth turns out to be scum I'm sorry I didn't tunnel harder.
Have any scum reads?
Wait, yes it was.
Well, good luck guys. If joth turns out to be town, I'm sorry I tunnelled so hard. If joth turns out to be scum I'm sorry I didn't tunnel harder.
Have any scum reads?
ADK for sure. I still think joth/ Robz scum team is a strong possibility. Awaclus certainly, but I'm often bad at reading Awaclus.
Feeling towny on you, EFHW, and Swan. Slightly less towny but still a little towny on e. Null on Uncle and Joseph. Who am I missing?
Wait, yes it was.
Well, good luck guys. If joth turns out to be town, I'm sorry I tunnelled so hard. If joth turns out to be scum I'm sorry I didn't tunnel harder.
Have any scum reads?
ADK for sure. I still think joth/ Robz scum team is a strong possibility. Awaclus certainly, but I'm often bad at reading Awaclus.
Feeling towny on you, EFHW, and Swan. Slightly less towny but still a little towny on e. Null on Uncle and Joseph. Who am I missing?
debate
A more important question is: “Do we think joth is scum?”
And important question is whether we think Glooble/joth duel was town/town or town/scum
A more important question is: “Do we think joth is scum?”And important question is whether we think Glooble/joth duel was town/town or town/scum
Those are literally the same questions
A more important question is: “Do we think joth is scum?”
And important question is whether we think Glooble/joth duel was town/town or town/scum
Okay sure. Vote: jothA more important question is: “Do we think joth is scum?”And important question is whether we think Glooble/joth duel was town/town or town/scum
Those are literally the same questions
Trying to assess a duel from that perspective seems much less likely to be as helpful as assessing joth on his own behavior.
No NK is awesome.I agree the PR person should claim
I think our PR recipient should claim. I don't think our JK needs to claim anything though. Too many variables surround that to 100% pin down scum.
But town would get a good idea of what to expect as well, no?It would help us know if duels are worth it. I can't think of another reason.
Scum already know joth's alignment.A more important question is: “Do we think joth is scum?”And important question is whether we think Glooble/joth duel was town/town or town/scum
Those questions are important mostly for scum.
I’m honestly kind of lost right now.
Scum already know joth's alignment.
So no NK presumably means that it was blocked
So either our JK stopped it, or the one shot PR had some role block/defending ability
Joseph gets townpoints for forgetting about that though.
Because either joth is scum or JK. If he's JK, scum might know he's JK now (if they shot him last night)
And if he's scum, this is good information.
Btw, i chose joth because knowing the makeup of the duel yesterday (town/town or scum/town) would be good information for today
I’m honestly kind of lost right now.Vote for robz
Okay screw it, I was hoping someone would fake claim and out themselves as scum. But it hasn't happened, so I'm going to claim:
I'm a one shot neapolitan, and the result I got was that joth is not a VT
Having done the maths, this means there's a ~75% chance that they're scum.
And i really hope i haven't just outed our JK here
Least surprising claim everOkay screw it, I was hoping someone would fake claim and out themselves as scum. But it hasn't happened, so I'm going to claim:
I'm a one shot neapolitan, and the result I got was that joth is not a VT
Having done the maths, this means there's a ~75% chance that they're scum.
And i really hope i haven't just outed our JK here
Guess what? You have!
2. If Joth was the JK, I don’t think he so visibly makes the D1 case against Glooble. That had the huge potential of backfiring and drawing mislynch attention.
Swan could also have been the NK target. I basically have been using my power as more of a doctor for the early game for mathy reasons.
Basically, with no other PRs in play, a major downside of jailkeeping townreads goes away.
If you JK scum, EVEN IF YOU’RE RIGHT, it has a 2/3 chance of not doing anything. Whereas if you JK town, all you have to do is correctly ID the nightkill, which seemed a lot easier. And the upside is that if your townread IS scum they’re probably among the best hidden scum and therefore the most likely to be doing the kill. The downside is you get less info from targeting townreads in a way.
So yeah. Swan is either scum or scum targeted him (or they targeted me). ADK is either town or scum who didn’t happen to do the kill.
Yeah, interesting situation.
The person I actually trust the most in this situation is Joseph. Scum don't actually get to use the PR, and to out the JK as scum just doesn't happen here.
But then for joth we need to wait for everyone to show up, and with no counter claim then I trust him as well.
Which then points suspicion to Datswan with the missing NK.
I’m honestly kind of lost right now.Vote for robz
What are your thoughts on:
1. Duel result, voters for Glooble, abstainers
2. Absence of a NK
3. Joseph’s claim and result
Who are the players on your list as potential scum?
Wait a minute...
Would scum even come up positive in a neopolitan investigation? They’re all vanilla goons...
Wait a minute...Yes because it tells you whether they are Vanilla Townie or not
Would scum even come up positive in a neopolitan investigation? They’re all vanilla goons...
...You're town because you more-or-less townslipped yesterday (I didn't point it out because it was also a slip of you not being the JK).
...You're town because you more-or-less townslipped yesterday (I didn't point it out because it was also a slip of you not being the JK).
What was the townslip you identified?
On that note, it is important to consider, however unlikely, that baddies targeted Joth as JK then used the Neop shot as a way to put them.If scum get the PR, they don't get to use the ability, as per the setup
So Joseph isn’t entirely in the clear.
On that note, it is important to consider, however unlikely, that baddies targeted Joth as JK then used the Neop shot as a way to put them.
So Joseph isn’t entirely in the clear.
I’m here! Sorry I suck so much.
I am not the jk.
The whole scum!joseph conspiracy theory is actually pretty interesting, if scum gets the neopolitan, they shoot joth, and joth doesn’t die, they don’t know if joth is the jk or the jk target.
If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth turns out to be a vt who was targeted by the jk, then joth looks like lying scum. Even if the jk claims they targeted joth no one knows if joth is the killer or the kill recipient.
If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth is the jk, then joseph gets pseudo ic status for a correct usage of the power, joth gets revealed as the actual jk (whereas previously scum wouldn’t know if joth was jk or jk’s target.
Actually this is a super beneficial and safe claim for scum to make if they did indeed get the neopolitan.
Also if scum got the role and wanted to lie about it, they could have just picked something other than that Neapolitan
Also if scum got the role and wanted to lie about it, they could have just picked something other than that Neapolitan
Hmmm...Why would you ever do that? Wouldn't there be a chance that Neap would still be one of the PRs available in future duels.
I’m here! Sorry I suck so much.
I am not the jk.
The whole scum!joseph conspiracy theory is actually pretty interesting, if scum gets the neopolitan, they shoot joth, and joth doesn’t die, they don’t know if joth is the jk or the jk target.
If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth turns out to be a vt who was targeted by the jk, then joth looks like lying scum. Even if the jk claims they targeted joth no one knows if joth is the killer or the kill recipient.
If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth is the jk, then joseph gets pseudo ic status for a correct usage of the power, joth gets revealed as the actual jk (whereas previously scum wouldn’t know if joth was jk or jk’s target.
Actually this is a super beneficial and safe claim for scum to make if they did indeed get the neopolitan.
Yeah but if in that scenario we do end up lynching joth, then we find out Joseph is lying and lynch him. Scum would be setting themselves up for a one-for-one trade just to try and out the JK
I’m here! Sorry I suck so much.
I am not the jk.
The whole scum!joseph conspiracy theory is actually pretty interesting, if scum gets the neopolitan, they shoot joth, and joth doesn’t die, they don’t know if joth is the jk or the jk target.
If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth turns out to be a vt who was targeted by the jk, then joth looks like lying scum. Even if the jk claims they targeted joth no one knows if joth is the killer or the kill recipient.
If scum!joseph claims what he does and joth is the jk, then joseph gets pseudo ic status for a correct usage of the power, joth gets revealed as the actual jk (whereas previously scum wouldn’t know if joth was jk or jk’s target.
Actually this is a super beneficial and safe claim for scum to make if they did indeed get the neopolitan.
Yeah but if in that scenario we do end up lynching joth, then we find out Joseph is lying and lynch him. Scum would be setting themselves up for a one-for-one trade just to try and out the JK
Oh right, if joseph is scum and joth is a vt who was protected by the jk the jk could stay silent let joth get lynched then joseph gets lynched and it’s a 1 for 1 without even burning the jk.
Yea I highly doubt joseph is scum.
Has everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.
So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.
Sounds reasonable to meHas everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.
So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.
So under this assumption, what happens if we wait for the duel and agree to vote down duels that include either of us? Is that any good probabilistically?
Sounds reasonable to meHas everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.
So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.
So under this assumption, what happens if we wait for the duel and agree to vote down duels that include either of us? Is that any good probabilistically?
There only issue is it is a secret ballot lynch where scum can lie about where they voted.
And it doesn't give the non-IC player a real chance to defend themselves
Has everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.
So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.
So under this assumption, what happens if we wait for the duel and agree to vote down duels that include either of us? Is that any good probabilistically?
There only issue is it is a secret ballot lynch where scum can lie about where they voted.
And it doesn't give the non-IC player a real chance to defend themselves
There he is, where have "you" been. :)
Has everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.
So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.
So under this assumption, what happens if we wait for the duel and agree to vote down duels that include either of us? Is that any good probabilistically?
At this point I would only vote for duels that included either of you if the other person was a duel where I would vote yes if the duel was me vs. them (there are such people)
There only issue is it is a secret ballot lynch where scum can lie about where they voted.
And it doesn't give the non-IC player a real chance to defend themselves
There he is, where have "you" been. :)
I am confused. Are you calling me scum here? The "you" is throwing me off. Or are you calling me town? Or neither? I just don't know.
There only issue is it is a secret ballot lynch where scum can lie about where they voted.
And it doesn't give the non-IC player a real chance to defend themselves
There he is, where have "you" been. :)
I am confused. Are you calling me scum here? The "you" is throwing me off. Or are you calling me town? Or neither? I just don't know.
Your play has been unusual. It made me question if you were a player on teamtown. Today, I am seeing more posts in the null to town range, instead of the null to scum range.
Has everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.
So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.
So under this assumption, what happens if we wait for the duel and agree to vote down duels that include either of us? Is that any good probabilistically?
At this point I would only vote for duels that included either of you if the other person was a duel where I would vote yes if the duel was me vs. them (there are such people)
Has everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.
So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.
So under this assumption, what happens if we wait for the duel and agree to vote down duels that include either of us? Is that any good probabilistically?
At this point I would only vote for duels that included either of you if the other person was a duel where I would vote yes if the duel was me vs. them (there are such people)
This seems nice in theory but in practice it just gives you wiggle room to vote however you want.
Has everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.
So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.
So under this assumption, what happens if we wait for the duel and agree to vote down duels that include either of us? Is that any good probabilistically?
At this point I would only vote for duels that included either of you if the other person was a duel where I would vote yes if the duel was me vs. them (there are such people)
and "them" are?
Joth and Joseph are town. I think it's okay to vote for a duel that includes one of them as long as the other person is someone we are okay lynching (to get the PR). If the duel is the two of them, then no.
If the duel is like, Joseph vs ADK or E, I might be fine with it.
I could easily see Swan being scum who does the kill, but I could ALSO see him as the NK, since it wouldn't fundamentally change the dynamics of the game much and the dynamics of the game (until this series of claims at least) was decent for scum.
Actually given that the duel yesterday was town vs. town, it's pretty unlikely that scum just didn't vote, so maybe take mcmc off that list
Has everyone posted? I feel like everyone has posted.
So I am going to work under the assumption that joth and Joseph are both town for now.
So under this assumption, what happens if we wait for the duel and agree to vote down duels that include either of us? Is that any good probabilistically?
At this point I would only vote for duels that included either of you if the other person was a duel where I would vote yes if the duel was me vs. them (there are such people)
This seems nice in theory but in practice it just gives you wiggle room to vote however you want.
I will vote however I want, thanks
Actually given that the duel yesterday was town vs. town, it's pretty unlikely that scum just didn't vote, so maybe take mcmc off that list
This doesn't make sense. I would think in a TvT scum votes yes. Abstaining doesn't make sense
What I'm getting at is this post sounds like it's committing to some kind of vote but it basically isn't.
Actually given that the duel yesterday was town vs. town, it's pretty unlikely that scum just didn't vote, so maybe take mcmc off that list
This doesn't make sense. I would think in a TvT scum votes yes. Abstaining doesn't make sense
What I mean is, with a TvT duel, scum doesn't end the day not voting like mcmc did
What I'm getting at is this post sounds like it's committing to some kind of vote but it basically isn't.
I promise you that I will place some kind of vote on the duel
Vote Count 3.0
Not Voting (11): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, EFHW, Debatepro, Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 3 ends at September 20, 15:00 Forum Time.
Vote Count 3.0
Not Voting (11): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, EFHW, Debatepro, Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 3 ends at September 20, 15:00 Forum Time.
So we have another 24 hours (ish) before the duel starts. I am still pretty much firmly in the "yes" camp, especially if it is in the non-IC group of people.
Vote Count 3.0
Not Voting (11): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, EFHW, Debatepro, Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 3 ends at September 20, 15:00 Forum Time.
So we have another 24 hours (ish) before the duel starts. I am still pretty much firmly in the "yes" camp, especially if it is in the non-IC group of people.
Would you consider voting yes if it is, say, joth vs. joseph?
Vote Count 3.0
Not Voting (11): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, EFHW, Debatepro, Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 3 ends at September 20, 15:00 Forum Time.
So we have another 24 hours (ish) before the duel starts. I am still pretty much firmly in the "yes" camp, especially if it is in the non-IC group of people.
Would you consider voting yes if it is, say, joth vs. joseph?
No. That is IC v ic . Don't think we want that.
snipped
Sorry, I've had a busy day without much time to think anything through. That's still true, actually, but I'll try.
Could Joseph be scum fakeclaiming? This would be risky, even if they had a great intuition that joth was jk.
Could joth be fake confirming and Joseph be fake claiming? That risks joth being counterclaimed. Unwise.
There were a couple posts that struck me as strange. I'll go through again and respond to those separately.
Vote Count 3.0
Not Voting (11): Uncleeurope, mcmcsalot, EFHW, Debatepro, Awaclus, jotheonah, DatSwan, Joseph2302, e, Robz888, A Drowned Kernel
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Phase 1 of day 3 ends at September 20, 15:00 Forum Time.
So we have another 24 hours (ish) before the duel starts. I am still pretty much firmly in the "yes" camp, especially if it is in the non-IC group of people.
Would you consider voting yes if it is, say, joth vs. joseph?
Sorry, I've had a busy day without much time to think anything through. That's still true, actually, but I'll try....There were a couple posts that struck me as strange. I'll go through again and respond to those separately.Same things as I said to datswan, did you just not read the last few pages or are you “thinking out loud” because you think it looks towny?
Yes joesph could be fake claiming but it’s super risky because of the world where we lynch by joth and then scum joseph. Joth can’t be fake confirming because No one is counter claiming joth.
snippedSoo did you not read my post where I said basically everything you did except with less words and more accuracy... (debatepro clipping to save space) This is really scummy
I 100% believe Joth. I think he is both the JK and did what he said he did.Vote: Datswan
I could see how Joseph could be town, but I doubt that both of Joth/Joseph are Town. And I hard lean Joseph on that pick.
Not discussing the duel selection this time around is stupid. We should discuss it. The answer should be no duel (unless it is Joseph or Joth I suppose, maybe). We have a claim and a re claim. There is no counter claim. That shit just doesn't happen. If there is the real jk sitting tight that is cool, they should imo... but the whole scenario added up just ends up in the scenario of "one of them is skum" sooooooo often.
Joth would not of said they protected me if they were skum. They would of picked someone that was not defending them then put a case on people that were defending them saying they were white knighting or whatever. OTOH I totally believe that town!Joth would proc me here as jk.
It is too late today for this to matter but tomorrow we need to consider taking the clear cut view of skum (wanting to go to the duel) away from them. Today is a perfect example of how little the value of the potential PR actually is.
Upon further reflection, I agree with DatSwan that we should take a step back from assuming we now have 2 ICs. Joseph could have been trying to frame joth and got unlucky that he hit the jk. Joth could be scum who pretty much has to claim jk or be lynched.If joth isn't the jk, the real jk is putting us in a really terrible position.....
What is the terrible position? Maybe they think they would lose a 1:1 vs joth, and then town loses our jk.Upon further reflection, I agree with DatSwan that we should take a step back from assuming we now have 2 ICs. Joseph could have been trying to frame joth and got unlucky that he hit the jk. Joth could be scum who pretty much has to claim jk or be lynched.If joth isn't the jk, the real jk is putting us in a really terrible position.....
It seems strange to me that e wants to shut down duel discussion.
We also need to talk about dueling at some point. I feel like we have enough information for a good lynch without a duel.
But I also think another PR would be very useful. While we regrettable outed our JK, the way it happened basically have us an IC in the process. Which is nice.
It seems strange to me thatFTFM, sorry e.emcmc wants to shut down duel discussion.
I do object to a lot of the things you are saying, but that one wasn't you.It seems strange to me thatFTFM, sorry e.emcmc wants to shut down duel discussion.
Now that you seem to be all caught up, and given the tenor of the quoted posts above, can you provide us your reads on ADK, Aweclus, and Robz? Excluding Joth and Joseph, they are the three remaining players who voted for Pubby, MiX, and Glooble (977 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=19733.msg811005#msg811005))
As opposed the datswan and efhw who I do think scumarized the discussions in somewhat leading posts. Datswan laid out a bunch of scenarios and over explained things to a point where it seems like he’s doing lost but he was just repeating what had been said and was also incorrect/incomplete with a decent amount of his analysis. Efhw did the scummy “ask a bunch of leading questions to look like I’m curiously pro town” but not adding any of her own insight. Robs here is actually just stating his own feeling quite susinctly. It’s not a post that’s trying to look towny it’s just relaying his own thoughts.Joth and Joseph are town. I think it's okay to vote for a duel that includes one of them as long as the other person is someone we are okay lynching (to get the PR). If the duel is the two of them, then no.
If the duel is like, Joseph vs ADK or E, I might be fine with it.
I could easily see Swan being scum who does the kill, but I could ALSO see him as the NK, since it wouldn't fundamentally change the dynamics of the game much and the dynamics of the game (until this series of claims at least) was decent for scum.
I could easily see this post coming from scum!Robz
Basically dining up everything everyone has said and starting a few other obvious things. Plus the obvious OMGUS perspective of me being in his top 2 scum reads.
I can join team vote: Robz
I'm feeling mischaracterized here. You can say my specific points were wrong, but I was trying to argue against being leading, and I don't know what you mean by leading questions in particular.
My feeling about Robz is that he just repeated what others were saying without adding his own insights. This is getting very confusing!
Why did you try to shut down duel discussion?
Remember joth vs player x where player x is town send us into night 7/3 which means a 30% chance town gets no pr and scum gets the pr info."Remember" always rings scum bells for me. This is true for any mislynch, regardless of duel.
I was more objecting to the inconsistencies in mcmc saying those things about me and DatSwan while praising your post. Your post feels null to me, not scummy in any obvious way. But are you trying to generate a perception of consensus by saying a lot of people agree with you that joth and Joseph are both town?I'm feeling mischaracterized here. You can say my specific points were wrong, but I was trying to argue against being leading, and I don't know what you mean by leading questions in particular.
My feeling about Robz is that he just repeated what others were saying without adding his own insights. This is getting very confusing!
Why did you try to shut down duel discussion?
I think my own insights are just pretty in line with other people's. I.e., Joth and Joseph are town.
I was more objecting to the inconsistencies in mcmc saying those things about me and DatSwan while praising your post. Your post feels null to me, not scummy in any obvious way. But are you trying to generate a perception of consensus by saying a lot of people agree with you that joth and Joseph are both town?I'm feeling mischaracterized here. You can say my specific points were wrong, but I was trying to argue against being leading, and I don't know what you mean by leading questions in particular.
My feeling about Robz is that he just repeated what others were saying without adding his own insights. This is getting very confusing!
Why did you try to shut down duel discussion?
I think my own insights are just pretty in line with other people's. I.e., Joth and Joseph are town.
Remember joth vs player x where player x is town send us into night 7/3 which means a 30% chance town gets no pr and scum gets the pr info."Remember" always rings scum bells for me. This is true for any mislynch, regardless of duel.
Re the above, yes DatSwan has done that, but he always does that, right?
I was more objecting to the inconsistencies in mcmc saying those things about me and DatSwan while praising your post. Your post feels null to me, not scummy in any obvious way. But are you trying to generate a perception of consensus by saying a lot of people agree with you that joth and Joseph are both town?I'm feeling mischaracterized here. You can say my specific points were wrong, but I was trying to argue against being leading, and I don't know what you mean by leading questions in particular.
My feeling about Robz is that he just repeated what others were saying without adding his own insights. This is getting very confusing!
Why did you try to shut down duel discussion?
I think my own insights are just pretty in line with other people's. I.e., Joth and Joseph are town.
A lot of people do agree with that. Who doesn't?
Remember joth vs player x where player x is town send us into night 7/3 which means a 30% chance town gets no pr and scum gets the pr info."Remember" always rings scum bells for me. This is true for any mislynch, regardless of duel.
Scum doesn’t have a 30% chance of getting a pr info for any mislynch regardless of duel.
I feel like you find my voice scummy.
I'm beginning to think duels are bad because they give everyone, scum and town alike, an excuse to play lazy, and I am absolutely including myself in this.Yeah, I came away from my "experiment" with the last duel thinking it slowed the game down too much.
The idea that scum!joseph claims a result on town!joth is nutso bonkers. Swan's big post honestly makes me think that he was the one who made the kill last night and is trying to keep other scenarios open
re: speculations about what scum would or wouldn't do, this group always wants to assume best play and I just don't think you can count on that. It seems to me we've been burned a number of times by that. I don't have particulars, but this thought has often occurred to me of late.
The idea that scum!joseph claims a result on town!joth is nutso bonkers. Swan's big post honestly makes me think that he was the one who made the kill last night and is trying to keep other scenarios openAgreed. This doesn't seem towny at all from DatSwan
Surely you've played with me enough times to know my plans are never this complex or well thought out, as town or scum? After all, i was dim enough to basically assume joth were scum from my result (as it was most likely). I should've stuck to my plan A, which was claim the non-VT result, but not name the individualre: speculations about what scum would or wouldn't do, this group always wants to assume best play and I just don't think you can count on that. It seems to me we've been burned a number of times by that. I don't have particulars, but this thought has often occurred to me of late.
I would say that I don't assume best play from scum but I do assume simple play. People like to come up with elaborate scenarios where scum infers X and claims Y to accomplish Z while town thinks Q, when really scum is usually just trying to keep their heads down
The idea that scum!joseph claims a result on town!joth is nutso bonkers.
If scum didn't have that strongman shot, I'd be more inclined to consider the gambit, since getting rid of the JK without wasting a NK might be worth it. But since they already have a way around the BP, I'm skeptical.Unfortunately, if DatSwan is scum that means they shot you last night, and so you've used up your BP
Here's another thing to think about. If we let a duel happen, and the PR doesn't "go to" scum, that COULD have the effect of keeping me alive, since scum strongman only goes through one layer of protection, so if they shoot me knowing a mysterious, possibly protective, PR is out there then they're taking the risk I won't die, so they might just shoot someone else.
If scum didn't have that strongman shot, I'd be more inclined to consider the gambit, since getting rid of the JK without wasting a NK might be worth it. But since they already have a way around the BP, I'm skeptical.Unfortunately, if DatSwan is scum that means they shot you last night, and so you've used up your BP
Here's another thing to think about. If we let a duel happen, and the PR doesn't "go to" scum, that COULD have the effect of keeping me alive, since scum strongman only goes through one layer of protection, so if they shoot me knowing a mysterious, possibly protective, PR is out there then they're taking the risk I won't die, so they might just shoot someone else.
Oh yes course, DatSwan was the shooter....If scum didn't have that strongman shot, I'd be more inclined to consider the gambit, since getting rid of the JK without wasting a NK might be worth it. But since they already have a way around the BP, I'm skeptical.Unfortunately, if DatSwan is scum that means they shot you last night, and so you've used up your BP
Here's another thing to think about. If we let a duel happen, and the PR doesn't "go to" scum, that COULD have the effect of keeping me alive, since scum strongman only goes through one layer of protection, so if they shoot me knowing a mysterious, possibly protective, PR is out there then they're taking the risk I won't die, so they might just shoot someone else.
Huh? No. I mean they may have, but I JK'd Swan, so he could have shot anyone
The idea that scum!joseph claims a result on town!joth is nutso bonkers.
It's not nutso bonkers. Worst case scenario, you out the JK who you had no idea was the JK and trade 1-for-1 with a vanilla townie, which is bad, but not terrible. Best case scenario, you out the JK who you were already suspecting might be the JK and nobody has any reason to be suspicious and you might even get town points.
I am down to lynch DS, but shouldn't we wait and see if he comes up in the duel? Then we can lynch him and maybe get a PR.
Considering Swowl was a potential NK target I wish we could find a better lynch for today than him...
Is there more against DatSwan than the missing nk? I guess I've been in a minority tending to agree with him more than others.
Is there more against DatSwan than the missing nk? I guess I've been in a minority tending to agree with him more than others.
I'll look into it.Is there more against DatSwan than the missing nk? I guess I've been in a minority tending to agree with him more than others.
Got someone else we should be looking at?
I don't think that's scummy. I was thinking the same things, out of caution.Is there more against DatSwan than the missing nk? I guess I've been in a minority tending to agree with him more than others.
Someone said— and I tend to agree— that his response to the claims seemed like an attempt to throw some doubt on me and Joseph being treated as ICs, which is a very scummy reaction.
Vote: Datswan
Me and joth not being town/town is the biggest rubbish I've heard all game
Upon further reflection, I agree with DatSwan that we should take a step back from assuming we now have 2 ICs. Joseph could have been trying to frame joth and got unlucky that he hit the jk. Joth could be scum who pretty much has to claim jk or be lynched.If joth isn't the jk, the real jk is putting us in a really terrible position.....
The idea that scum!joseph claims a result on town!joth is nutso bonkers. Swan's big post honestly makes me think that he was the one who made the kill last night and is trying to keep other scenarios open
And looks like a good JK role block last nightYou are not an IC. You probably are not even town. stop spinning it that way.
Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.
I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.
Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.
We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.
Shoot, now I'm getting the impression that DatSwan knows joth is town. It's late now, I'll look at details tomorrow.Dudet- i think it is unlikely that they are both town. I think that Joth is town way over Joseph. It is not not conf bias, it is just i don’t want to lynch Joth and i do wanna lynch Joseph.
Swan makes some good points... but I’d also still very possibly scum. At this point if Joseph and Swan are both town I’ll be shocked.
unvote for now. More from me tomorrow.
Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.
I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.
Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.
We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.
Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.
I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.
Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.
We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.
I need you to stop being skummy. It is complicating the situation.
I said that it is unlikely (which it is) that town Joseph got a 1 shot Neo ability, then chose Joth to target, who happened to be the ONLY OTHER PR IN THE GAME. That is the literal definition of unlikely... to the point that it is not like... arguable.
Are people mis understanding me? Does that not make sense? it isn't an opinion, it is a fact. If there are X amount of players the lowest chance that someone can have to hit a PR is 1/X ( which is what we have in this game).
You are like tied with Faust for the last person that would just assume we have 2 ICs here. What gives?
Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.
I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.
Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.
We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.
Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.
I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.
Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.
We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.
I need you to stop being skummy. It is complicating the situation.
I said that it is unlikely (which it is) that town Joseph got a 1 shot Neo ability, then chose Joth to target, who happened to be the ONLY OTHER PR IN THE GAME. That is the literal definition of unlikely... to the point that it is not like... arguable.
Are people mis understanding me? Does that not make sense? it isn't an opinion, it is a fact. If there are X amount of players the lowest chance that someone can have to hit a PR is 1/X ( which is what we have in this game).
You are like tied with Faust for the last person that would just assume we have 2 ICs here. What gives?
Assuming Joseph is town and telling the truth, the odds of him hitting the JK were 1 in 10. That's not astronomically unlikely. To me that's more plausible than scum!Joseph deciding to fake a result and hope he guessed right
Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.
I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.
Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.
We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.
I need you to stop being skummy. It is complicating the situation.
I said that it is unlikely (which it is) that town Joseph got a 1 shot Neo ability, then chose Joth to target, who happened to be the ONLY OTHER PR IN THE GAME. That is the literal definition of unlikely... to the point that it is not like... arguable.
Are people mis understanding me? Does that not make sense? it isn't an opinion, it is a fact. If there are X amount of players the lowest chance that someone can have to hit a PR is 1/X ( which is what we have in this game).
You are like tied with Faust for the last person that would just assume we have 2 ICs here. What gives?
Assuming Joseph is town and telling the truth, the odds of him hitting the JK were 1 in 10. That's not astronomically unlikely. To me that's more plausible than scum!Joseph deciding to fake a result and hope he guessed right
Those odds are literally identical.
Also.
I voted yes to the duel.
I am not gonna be the one to point it out, but if someone else wants to do some work and point out why Joth/Joseph/ADK should claim their votes that would be neat.
Datswans post does nothing but strengthen my scum read.
I don’t think it is the correct play for a jk to stay silent if joth is lying especially because there was
a blocked kill last night.
Also the fact that swan is so convinced it is unlikely joseph hit the jk that he think joseph is scum is hilariously scummy.
We most likely have two ic’s and swan is trying to lynch one and leave the option open for the other one to be counter claimed by scum later.
I need you to stop being skummy. It is complicating the situation.
I said that it is unlikely (which it is) that town Joseph got a 1 shot Neo ability, then chose Joth to target, who happened to be the ONLY OTHER PR IN THE GAME. That is the literal definition of unlikely... to the point that it is not like... arguable.
Are people mis understanding me? Does that not make sense? it isn't an opinion, it is a fact. If there are X amount of players the lowest chance that someone can have to hit a PR is 1/X ( which is what we have in this game).
You are like tied with Faust for the last person that would just assume we have 2 ICs here. What gives?
Assuming Joseph is town and telling the truth, the odds of him hitting the JK were 1 in 10. That's not astronomically unlikely. To me that's more plausible than scum!Joseph deciding to fake a result and hope he guessed right
Those odds are literally identical.
I think the people who are so convinced we have 2 ICs here. So, Robz, ADK, e, mcmc, and joth and Joseph, with joth>>joseph in my opinion. That's a lot of people, though.I'll look into it.Is there more against DatSwan than the missing nk? I guess I've been in a minority tending to agree with him more than others.
Got someone else we should be looking at?
Is there a reason joth can't be scum or are people following gut reads? Don't say it's because there was no counterclaim. I'm with DatSwan on that.
I voted yes to the duel.
I voted yes to the duel.
Because you honestly think that me or joseph could be scum, or because you're sticking to your "always vote yes" stance?
Is there a reason joth can't be scum or are people following gut reads? Don't say it's because there was no counterclaim. I'm with DatSwan on that.
Here is joseph pointing out that the only thing likely to happen is joth claims jk regardless of alignment.Least surprising claim everOkay screw it, I was hoping someone would fake claim and out themselves as scum. But it hasn't happened, so I'm going to claim:
I'm a one shot neapolitan, and the result I got was that joth is not a VT
Having done the maths, this means there's a ~75% chance that they're scum.
And i really hope i haven't just outed our JK here
Guess what? You have!
Important: if joth isn't the JK, can the real JK please come out? Otherwise we're going to assume that joth is townHere is joseph reiterating how important it is that the jk counterclaim or else we should assume joth is town. Which is what we are doing.
Because either joth is scum or JK. If he's JK, scum might know he's JK now (if they shot him last night)Also here is Joseph’s actual resining for targeting joth, because he was the survival of the duel and leaning the alignment of both glooble and joth is super helpful.
And if he's scum, this is good information.
Btw, i chose joth because knowing the makeup of the duel yesterday (town/town or scum/town) would be good information for today
I voted yes to the duel.
Because you honestly think that me or joseph could be scum, or because you're sticking to your "always vote yes" stance?
I want this answer as well. I voted no to the duel.
Town!joseph has a 1 in 10 chance of hitting the jk.
Town!joseph has a 1 in 10 chance of hitting the jk.
But for scum!joseph, if Joth was the NK, had a 50/50 shot that unsuccessful NK means Joth was JK or VT.
Hmm mcmc is making a lot of sense.
I’m willing to hammer. Not in a huge hurry to do so, but will plan to in 10 hours before I go to bed tonight. Or sooner if it seems like everyone’s said their peace.
There are 5 players who have voted for all three of the confirmed town players (Pubby, MiX, Glooble). They also voted for each confirmed town player, prior to the 2nd duel being announced.
1. ADK
2. Awaclus
3. Joseph (claimed Neap)
4. Joth (claimed JK)
5. Robz
If we just isolate day one votes for confirmed town the list is:
1. ADK
2. Joth
3. Robz
Awaclus had the very first vote on day two for glooble and joseph also votes glooble on the seventh vote of day 2 which is before the glooble v joth duel was announced.
Hmm mcmc is making a lot of sense.
I’m willing to hammer. Not in a huge hurry to do so, but will plan to in 10 hours before I go to bed tonight. Or sooner if it seems like everyone’s said their peace.
Wait we have like 4ish more days, right? If DS is scum and to be the Lynch, let’s track down their partners.
I for one am interested in determining which one of these folks below is his likely partner. Given the way the DS discussion is going, is Robz the best candidate? ADK would have to be on a super bus plan and aweclus would be on the short bus plan. Other thoughts?There are 5 players who have voted for all three of the confirmed town players (Pubby, MiX, Glooble). They also voted for each confirmed town player, prior to the 2nd duel being announced.
1. ADK
2. Awaclus
3. Joseph (claimed Neap)
4. Joth (claimed JK)
5. Robz
If we just isolate day one votes for confirmed town the list is:
1. ADK
2. Joth
3. Robz
Awaclus had the very first vote on day two for glooble and joseph also votes glooble on the seventh vote of day 2 which is before the glooble v joth duel was announced.
Is there a reason joth can't be scum or are people following gut reads? Don't say it's because there was no counterclaim. I'm with DatSwan on that.
Hmm mcmc is making a lot of sense.
I’m willing to hammer. Not in a huge hurry to do so, but will plan to in 10 hours before I go to bed tonight. Or sooner if it seems like everyone’s said their peace.
Wait we have like 4ish more days, right? If DS is scum and to be the Lynch, let’s track down their partners.
I for one am interested in determining which one of these folks below is his likely partner. Given the way the DS discussion is going, is Robz the best candidate? ADK would have to be on a super bus plan and aweclus would be on the short bus plan. Other thoughts?There are 5 players who have voted for all three of the confirmed town players (Pubby, MiX, Glooble). They also voted for each confirmed town player, prior to the 2nd duel being announced.
1. ADK
2. Awaclus
3. Joseph (claimed Neap)
4. Joth (claimed JK)
5. Robz
If we just isolate day one votes for confirmed town the list is:
1. ADK
2. Joth
3. Robz
Awaclus had the very first vote on day two for glooble and joseph also votes glooble on the seventh vote of day 2 which is before the glooble v joth duel was announced.
Also I think swan is disregarding that it is almost equally as unlikely that scum!joseph picks the jk as town!joseph picks the jk.
Town!joseph has a 1 in 10 chance of hitting the jk.
Scum!joseph (assuming scum shot joth) knows joth is either the jk, protected by the jk, or the scum who did the nk was blocked by the jk. Those are three scenarios and I don’t know the probability of each occurring. But scum!joseph guessing correctly that joth was the jk and not just some vt which WOULD result in the real jk staying silent and best bet for scum is they trade 1v1 with a vt.
So the whole joseph has to be scum because there is no way town!joseph hit the jk is a super weirdly specific argument that doesn’t hold much water.
On top of that myself and adk sort of already went through this prior to swans post where he started down this track and he keeps acting like scum!joseph knows joth is the jk when he doesn’t.
Scum!swan however does know if joth is the jk or not because he knows if he did the nk or if someone else on his team shot joth.
At the end of the day Swan, you’re going to have to do a better job of explaining why a scum team that is so far ahead would basically sacrifice one of their own in exchange for a tiny chance of outing the JK and a mislynch they could probably have secured anyway.
Otherwise I accept Jospeh’s behavior as weird, but I can’t buy it as scummy.
At the end of the day Swan, you’re going to have to do a better job of explaining why a scum team that is so far ahead would basically sacrifice one of their own in exchange for a tiny chance of outing the JK and a mislynch they could probably have secured anyway.
Otherwise I accept Jospeh’s behavior as weird, but I can’t buy it as scummy.
Sure.
Wake up Day 3 with 3vs8 (11 total). skum here would be considering two options:
1) Can they quick win this?
- Not really like in this set up after they do not get a kill last night.
At the end of the day Swan, you’re going to have to do a better job of explaining why a scum team that is so far ahead would basically sacrifice one of their own in exchange for a tiny chance of outing the JK and a mislynch they could probably have secured anyway.
Otherwise I accept Jospeh’s behavior as weird, but I can’t buy it as scummy.
Sure.
Wake up Day 3 with 3vs8 (11 total). skum here would be considering two options:
1) Can they quick win this?
- Not really like in this set up after they do not get a kill last night.
Let me stop you right there. Scum doesn't know their kill didn't go through until day start. So this whole thing you laid out works only as something Joseph by himself decided to do without consulting his partners.
I'm not the sort of person with enough thinking power to single handedly create such an elaborate scheme
At the end of the day Swan, you’re going to have to do a better job of explaining why a scum team that is so far ahead would basically sacrifice one of their own in exchange for a tiny chance of outing the JK and a mislynch they could probably have secured anyway.
Otherwise I accept Jospeh’s behavior as weird, but I can’t buy it as scummy.
Sure.
Wake up Day 3 with 3vs8 (11 total). skum here would be considering two options:
1) Can they quick win this?
- Not really like in this set up after they do not get a kill last night.
Let me stop you right there. Scum doesn't know their kill didn't go through until day start. So this whole thing you laid out works only as something Joseph by himself decided to do without consulting his partners.
tbf that is exactly what my thought was on being willing to dial back on Joseph.
I don't think he is the type of player that always will take that line like "by themselves".
Still possible, but yeah... kind of have to agree with you there.
At the end of the day Swan, you’re going to have to do a better job of explaining why a scum team that is so far ahead would basically sacrifice one of their own in exchange for a tiny chance of outing the JK and a mislynch they could probably have secured anyway.
Otherwise I accept Jospeh’s behavior as weird, but I can’t buy it as scummy.
Sure.
Wake up Day 3 with 3vs8 (11 total). skum here would be considering two options:
1) Can they quick win this?
- Not really like in this set up after they do not get a kill last night.
Let me stop you right there. Scum doesn't know their kill didn't go through until day start. So this whole thing you laid out works only as something Joseph by himself decided to do without consulting his partners.
I dunno, man, I wanna trust Swowl here a lot more than other people at the moment.
I dunno, man, I wanna trust Swowl here a lot more than other people at the moment.
Are you his scumbuddy?
Any reaction to my point about Debate? I feel like I might be onto something here.
Any reaction to my point about Debate? I feel like I might be onto something here.
How is my post hedgy?Any reaction to my point about Debate? I feel like I might be onto something here.
Debate's post is hedgey on the issue of swan, though so is your post on debate
I have more to say on this and other subjects but am on the phone right now
But you have never stated a scumread on DatSwan. You have kept out of the conversation completely. So it doesn't make sense for you to look for partners.Any reaction to my point about Debate? I feel like I might be onto something here.
Your not, it’s a miss lynch. But throwing fire my way after all my posts seems desperate. Why? I’m busy buying, selling, and moving a houses. I saw Joth’s claim that he would hammer in 10 hours and we have 4 days left. Two of the people on DS were on my scum list, so those things don’t add up. Thus the statement , if DS is scum then let’s identify his partners.
How is my post hedgy?Any reaction to my point about Debate? I feel like I might be onto something here.
Debate's post is hedgey on the issue of swan, though so is your post on debate
I have more to say on this and other subjects but am on the phone right now
But you have never stated a scumread on DatSwan. You have kept out of the conversation completely. So it doesn't make sense for you to look for partners.Any reaction to my point about Debate? I feel like I might be onto something here.
Your not, it’s a miss lynch. But throwing fire my way after all my posts seems desperate. Why? I’m busy buying, selling, and moving a houses. I saw Joth’s claim that he would hammer in 10 hours and we have 4 days left. Two of the people on DS were on my scum list, so those things don’t add up. Thus the statement , if DS is scum then let’s identify his partners.
But you have never stated a scumread on DatSwan. You have kept out of the conversation completely. So it doesn't make sense for you to look for partners.Any reaction to my point about Debate? I feel like I might be onto something here.
Your not, it’s a miss lynch. But throwing fire my way after all my posts seems desperate. Why? I’m busy buying, selling, and moving a houses. I saw Joth’s claim that he would hammer in 10 hours and we have 4 days left. Two of the people on DS were on my scum list, so those things don’t add up. Thus the statement , if DS is scum then let’s identify his partners.
It’s a counterfactual. I have not had a scum read on DS, a discussion that involves identifying his potential partners is very revealing. It can show he’s Town, identify the “real” scum team that doesn’t include DS, or identify his partners. That discussion is useful with 4 days left that we can’t have if someone hammers.
And i feel like the (few) people who've played a reasonable number of games with me know that
And i feel like the (few) people who've played a reasonable number of games with me know that
what? that is almost exactly what I said. "I do not think you are capable of this play as skum". so you are agreeing with me... or not?
It’s a counterfactual. I have not had a scum read on DS, a discussion that involves identifying his potential partners is very revealing. It can show he’s Town, identify the “real” scum team that doesn’t include DS, or identify his partners. That discussion is useful with 4 days left that we can’t have if someone hammers.
k. so why start a discussion that does start with the words "lets use the day to find Swan's partners".
I can't make any sense out of this post. And why so aggressive? You can't play a mafia game without coming under some pressure or scrutiny.
It’s a counterfactual. I have not had a scum read on DS, a discussion that involves identifying his potential partners is very revealing. It can show he’s Town, identify the “real” scum team that doesn’t include DS, or identify his partners. That discussion is useful with 4 days left that we can’t have if someone hammers.
k. so why start a discussion that does start with the words "lets use the day to find Swan's partners".
Your not helping yourself here. I am 1 billion percent town, the literal definition of a counterfactual is to make a statement that is counter to fact. Like if a if a kangaroo doesn’t have a tail, would the fall over. It has to start with, if swan is scum, who are his partners? What’s most revealing here is all the people who are pushing you are not chiming in with potential partner suggestion. Because if it requires debate to be scum if you are scum, then their case is maybe only 100% wrong.
Joth - You really think I am skum?
I did get excited about the scum!DatSwan narrative for scum!Debate. But my main case is that he has been avoiding taking a stance on DatSwan period.How is my post hedgy?Any reaction to my point about Debate? I feel like I might be onto something here.
Debate's post is hedgey on the issue of swan, though so is your post on debate
I have more to say on this and other subjects but am on the phone right now
It's hedgey on the subject of swan. Maybe hedgey is the wrong word, but I find it interesting that your effort to put focus on debate is explicitly independent of swan's alignment
What’s most revealing here is all the people who are pushing you are not chiming in with potential partner suggestion.
What’s most revealing here is all the people who are pushing you are not chiming in with potential partner suggestion.
I did
Hmm mcmc is making a lot of sense.
I’m willing to hammer. Not in a huge hurry to do so, but will plan to in 10 hours before I go to bed tonight. Or sooner if it seems like everyone’s said their peace.
Wait we have like 4ish more days, right? If DS is scum and to be the Lynch, let’s track down their partners.
I for one am interested in determining which one of these folks below is his likely partner. Given the way the DS discussion is going, is Robz the best candidate? ADK would have to be on a super bus plan and aweclus would be on the short bus plan. Other thoughts?There are 5 players who have voted for all three of the confirmed town players (Pubby, MiX, Glooble). They also voted for each confirmed town player, prior to the 2nd duel being announced.
1. ADK
2. Awaclus
3. Joseph (claimed Neap)
4. Joth (claimed JK)
5. Robz
If we just isolate day one votes for confirmed town the list is:
1. ADK
2. Joth
3. Robz
Awaclus had the very first vote on day two for glooble and joseph also votes glooble on the seventh vote of day 2 which is before the glooble v joth duel was announced.
EFHW and Eddie seem like likely candidates
What’s most revealing here is all the people who are pushing you are not chiming in with potential partner suggestion.
I did
Hmm mcmc is making a lot of sense.
I’m willing to hammer. Not in a huge hurry to do so, but will plan to in 10 hours before I go to bed tonight. Or sooner if it seems like everyone’s said their peace.
Wait we have like 4ish more days, right? If DS is scum and to be the Lynch, let’s track down their partners.
I for one am interested in determining which one of these folks below is his likely partner. Given the way the DS discussion is going, is Robz the best candidate? ADK would have to be on a super bus plan and aweclus would be on the short bus plan. Other thoughts?There are 5 players who have voted for all three of the confirmed town players (Pubby, MiX, Glooble). They also voted for each confirmed town player, prior to the 2nd duel being announced.
1. ADK
2. Awaclus
3. Joseph (claimed Neap)
4. Joth (claimed JK)
5. Robz
If we just isolate day one votes for confirmed town the list is:
1. ADK
2. Joth
3. Robz
Awaclus had the very first vote on day two for glooble and joseph also votes glooble on the seventh vote of day 2 which is before the glooble v joth duel was announced.
EFHW and Eddie seem like likely candidatesWhat’s most revealing here is all the people who are pushing you are not chiming in with potential partner suggestion.
I did
So what your saying is that it’s Datswan, EFHW, and Eddie? And that not a single scum (of the non-IC variety) exists between you, aweclus, and Robz. AKA the empirically anti-town voting group.
FWIW, I have some ideas for scum teams. But i don't feel like i need to share them right now
Ok. Intent to hammer. For real this time.
Ok. Intent to hammer. For real this time.
Any reads or info you want to leave us with, since I imagine the JK will be the scum target.
good luckOk. Intent to hammer. For real this time.
Any reads or info you want to leave us with, since I imagine the JK will be the scum target.
Sharing my reads is a good way to make sure I do die. I believe I can save myself by JKing the scum shooter.
I am down to lynch DS, but shouldn't we wait and see if he comes up in the duel? Then we can lynch him and maybe get a PR.
I can't make any sense out of this post. And why so aggressive? You can't play a mafia game without coming under some pressure or scrutiny.
It’s a counterfactual. I have not had a scum read on DS, a discussion that involves identifying his potential partners is very revealing. It can show he’s Town, identify the “real” scum team that doesn’t include DS, or identify his partners. That discussion is useful with 4 days left that we can’t have if someone hammers.
k. so why start a discussion that does start with the words "lets use the day to find Swan's partners".
Your not helping yourself here. I am 1 billion percent town, the literal definition of a counterfactual is to make a statement that is counter to fact. Like if a if a kangaroo doesn’t have a tail, would the fall over. It has to start with, if swan is scum, who are his partners? What’s most revealing here is all the people who are pushing you are not chiming in with potential partner suggestion. Because if it requires debate to be scum if you are scum, then their case is maybe only 100% wrong.
Joth - You really think I am skum?
I'm not sure of it. You are doing a good job of seeming like aggrieved town. But the following things are true:
1) Your wagon does not feel like a towny wagon. It has a lot of support but also a significant handful of holdouts, and no one is egging it on particularly hard. It has all the hallmarks of a caught scum wagon.
2) Your immediate response to claims (which you have since backed off on after being called out) was the one I would expect scum to have, namely to try to prevent us from "IC"ing myself and Joseph. There are legitimate objections to that, especially if you think one of us is scum, but generally town needs to build coherent narratives and employ POE to get a lynch, and scum has a very vested interest in derailing that process.
Your immediate reaction is more telling than your more measured posts of late. And your immediate reaction was one of not concern about your own lynch, but concern that town was going to get itself two ICs (and make scum's late game that much harder).
Unfortunately, we're at the point where we're all good enough at this game that we don't have the luxury of lynching "obvscum" very often. But to me, the world where you're caught scum is much more persuasive than the world where you're unfortunate town (though I acknowledge the latter is a possibility). I'd say I'm about 70-30 on you flipping red here.
Scums on the wagon.Why aren't you, Eddie and Robz voting?
Scums on the wagon.Why aren't you, Eddie and Robz voting?
Scums on the wagon.Why aren't you, Eddie and Robz voting?
I'm sort of fine with lynching DS and would be willing to provide the vote to do it, but that doesn't look necessary, I guess.
Why have no other wagons come up?
Hardly anyone but Swan.
And the idea that it’s exactly us three must seem a bit silly to you.
What’s disingenuous is the lack of concern people seem to be having about Swan’s alignment.
I can’t help but read his posts and feel hesitation due to many assumptions he is making that I don’t think a baddie would make in his spot.
He seems to be working with half of the information, just like town would be doing.
I'm sort of fine with lynching DS and would be willing to provide the vote to do it, but that doesn't look necessary, I guess.
Are you fine with it because you think he's scum or because you're ready for the day to end and want information?
This does not feel like an accurate description.Why have no other wagons come up?
You, debate and Eddie have been pushing "anyone but swan" for awhile now, so this seems pretty disingenuous
It doesn't give you pause at all? I never said he can't be scum for that reason. I never said he can't be scum. Just I personally don't think he is.Hardly anyone but Swan.
And the idea that it’s exactly us three must seem a bit silly to you.
What’s disingenuous is the lack of concern people seem to be having about Swan’s alignment.
I can’t help but read his posts and feel hesitation due to many assumptions he is making that I don’t think a baddie would make in his spot.
He seems to be working with half of the information, just like town would be doing.
I mean all three of you can't all be his partners because that's too many scum. But the argument that swan can't be scum because no one protesting his lynch or looking elsewhere doesn't hold water
It doesn't give you pause at all? I never said he can't be scum for that reason. I never said he can't be scum. Just I personally don't think he is.Hardly anyone but Swan.
And the idea that it’s exactly us three must seem a bit silly to you.
What’s disingenuous is the lack of concern people seem to be having about Swan’s alignment.
I can’t help but read his posts and feel hesitation due to many assumptions he is making that I don’t think a baddie would make in his spot.
He seems to be working with half of the information, just like town would be doing.
I mean all three of you can't all be his partners because that's too many scum. But the argument that swan can't be scum because no one protesting his lynch or looking elsewhere doesn't hold water
I'm sort of fine with lynching DS and would be willing to provide the vote to do it, but that doesn't look necessary, I guess.
Are you fine with it because you think he's scum or because you're ready for the day to end and want information?
I'm ready for the day to end, and also think the case on him is decent-ish enough. I could really see him as scum, and not as scum. Sorry to be wishy washy!
This does not feel like an accurate description.Why have no other wagons come up?
You, debate and Eddie have been pushing "anyone but swan" for awhile now, so this seems pretty disingenuous
The whole idea around framing someone as scum is a bunch of WIFOM that doesn't actually contribute a ton to catching scum in my opinion.
Every flip does give us information to find scum, but the standard immediate jumping on an easy wagon is just scummy.
More people should vote Awaclus
I have a gut townread on awaclus
But they haven't been doing that. That's why I pointed out their not voting. Did you at least consider the possibility that the lack of opposition could be meaningful, even if it wasn't enough to change your voting preference?It doesn't give you pause at all? I never said he can't be scum for that reason. I never said he can't be scum. Just I personally don't think he is.Hardly anyone but Swan.
And the idea that it’s exactly us three must seem a bit silly to you.
What’s disingenuous is the lack of concern people seem to be having about Swan’s alignment.
I can’t help but read his posts and feel hesitation due to many assumptions he is making that I don’t think a baddie would make in his spot.
He seems to be working with half of the information, just like town would be doing.
I mean all three of you can't all be his partners because that's too many scum. But the argument that swan can't be scum because no one protesting his lynch or looking elsewhere doesn't hold water
"Can't" is a strong word but you've definitely been arguing that we should lynch elsewhere, as have debate and e, and you're arguing that the fact that there aren't people looking elsewhere might be evidence that swan is town, and that fact is demonstrably false, even from town!you'd perspective, since debate and Eddie have been doing exactly that
This does not feel like an accurate description.Why have no other wagons come up?
You, debate and Eddie have been pushing "anyone but swan" for awhile now, so this seems pretty disingenuous
I agree this is not accurate. I am skeptical because 4 of 5 people who voted for pubby, mix, and Glooble are all voting DS and the 5th (Robz) said he would. It seems everyone voting for DS agrees that DS challenging the ICs status is scummy. This means you exclude ICs from the the pool of 5. We’re left with three and I think at least one of them is scum. From the perspective of any of the 3 remaining players, if they are Town, at least one of the other two is likely scum. But no one is saying anything, they are doing Poe, vca, or anything, just following the ICs.
I think ADK’s arg that scum try to be off wagon is fair, but I’ve never played in a game where they were ALL off wagon. The fact that ADK as a supposed Town player isn’t questioning or looking in the pool of players at all should raise eyebrows.
Anyone remember this?The whole idea around framing someone as scum is a bunch of WIFOM that doesn't actually contribute a ton to catching scum in my opinion.
Every flip does give us information to find scum, but the standard immediate jumping on an easy wagon is just scummy.
More people should vote Awaclus
I have a gut townread on awaclus
Maybe everyone who joined the DS vote after the IC, should be given more scrutiny.
(Phone & beers)
I think you meant Eddie, not e, has been not in favor of the lynch. I didn't see him looking elsewhere, though, until I mentioned his not voting.
At the end of the day Swan, you’re going to have to do a better job of explaining why a scum team that is so far ahead would basically sacrifice one of their own in exchange for a tiny chance of outing the JK and a mislynch they could probably have secured anyway.
Otherwise I accept Jospeh’s behavior as weird, but I can’t buy it as scummy.
Sure.
Wake up Day 3 with 3vs8 (11 total). skum here would be considering two options:
1) Can they quick win this?
- Not really like in this set up after they do not get a kill last night.
Let me stop you right there. Scum doesn't know their kill didn't go through until day start. So this whole thing you laid out works only as something Joseph by himself decided to do without consulting his partners.
#TownSlip
I dunno, man, I wanna trust Swowl here a lot more than other people at the moment.
E and Awaclus?
Probably e.
Or Robz.
Or EFHW.
Probably e.
Did you at least consider the possibility that the lack of opposition could be meaningful, even if it wasn't enough to change your voting preference?
I concur that I would prefer if Swan didn't die.
I concur that I would prefer if Swan didn't die.
awww
I concur that I would prefer if Swan didn't die.
awww
<3
(I swear if you are evil I will curse you with a thousand emus)
This is weird, because I thought I was in a conversation with Robz. But by lack of opposition I meant lack of opposing wagons. That was the question I asked, followed by the question about why the off wagon people weren't voting anywhere else. Robz assumed my agenda was to clear DatSwan. I just think it's important to notice and think about. joth noticed and decided it meant DatSwan was scum. That doesn't seem obvious to me. I realize most of the DatSwan voters have probably decided I am probably his partner, but I'm still going to say what I think.Did you at least consider the possibility that the lack of opposition could be meaningful, even if it wasn't enough to change your voting preference?
The issue is that I'm not the seeing the "lack of opposition" that you're talking about
This is weird, because I thought I was in a conversation with Robz. But by lack of opposition I meant lack of opposing wagons. That was the question I asked, followed by the question about why the off wagon people weren't voting anywhere else. Robz assumed my agenda was to clear DatSwan. I just think it's important to notice and think about. joth noticed and decided it meant DatSwan was scum. That doesn't seem obvious to me. I realize most of the DatSwan voters have probably decided I am probably his partner, but I'm still going to say what I think.Did you at least consider the possibility that the lack of opposition could be meaningful, even if it wasn't enough to change your voting preference?
The issue is that I'm not the seeing the "lack of opposition" that you're talking about
I've been very clear all along that I meant lack of votes/wagons other than for DatSwan. Somehow that keeps getting turned into me saying no one is against the wagon, which is obviously false.
I've been very clear all along that I meant lack of votes/wagons other than for DatSwan. Somehow that keeps getting turned into me saying no one is against the wagon, which is obviously false.
To be fair it seems like it's just you and me having this conversation. I apologize if I've misrepresented your point but to me the amount of people arguing against swan's lynch is enough to counter the "where are his partners" argument
I've been very clear all along that I meant lack of votes/wagons other than for DatSwan. Somehow that keeps getting turned into me saying no one is against the wagon, which is obviously false.
To be fair it seems like it's just you and me having this conversation. I apologize if I've misrepresented your point but to me the amount of people arguing against swan's lynch is enough to counter the "where are his partners" argument
So that I understand what is implied here, your position is that efhw, eddie, and debatepro are pushing an alternative to DS and pushing that alternative is a sign of who his partners could be?
I've been very clear all along that I meant lack of votes/wagons other than for DatSwan. Somehow that keeps getting turned into me saying no one is against the wagon, which is obviously false.
To be fair it seems like it's just you and me having this conversation. I apologize if I've misrepresented your point but to me the amount of people arguing against swan's lynch is enough to counter the "where are his partners" argument
So that I understand what is implied here, your position is that efhw, eddie, and debatepro are pushing an alternative to DS and pushing that alternative is a sign of who his partners could be?
My position is that the three of you have been arguing against his lynch, which makes you potential partners, yes
I've been very clear all along that I meant lack of votes/wagons other than for DatSwan. Somehow that keeps getting turned into me saying no one is against the wagon, which is obviously false.
To be fair it seems like it's just you and me having this conversation. I apologize if I've misrepresented your point but to me the amount of people arguing against swan's lynch is enough to counter the "where are his partners" argument
So that I understand what is implied here, your position is that efhw, eddie, and debatepro are pushing an alternative to DS and pushing that alternative is a sign of who his partners could be?
My position is that the three of you have been arguing against his lynch, which makes you potential partners, yes
But none of his partners are sheeping the ICs or busing?
You seem satisfied with the definite answer that Swowl is a baddie.
I've been very clear all along that I meant lack of votes/wagons other than for DatSwan. Somehow that keeps getting turned into me saying no one is against the wagon, which is obviously false.
To be fair it seems like it's just you and me having this conversation. I apologize if I've misrepresented your point but to me the amount of people arguing against swan's lynch is enough to counter the "where are his partners" argument
So that I understand what is implied here, your position is that efhw, eddie, and debatepro are pushing an alternative to DS and pushing that alternative is a sign of who his partners could be?
My position is that the three of you have been arguing against his lynch, which makes you potential partners, yes
But none of his partners are sheeping the ICs or busing?
I've been very clear all along that I meant lack of votes/wagons other than for DatSwan. Somehow that keeps getting turned into me saying no one is against the wagon, which is obviously false.
To be fair it seems like it's just you and me having this conversation. I apologize if I've misrepresented your point but to me the amount of people arguing against swan's lynch is enough to counter the "where are his partners" argument
So that I understand what is implied here, your position is that efhw, eddie, and debatepro are pushing an alternative to DS and pushing that alternative is a sign of who his partners could be?
My position is that the three of you have been arguing against his lynch, which makes you potential partners, yes
But none of his partners are sheeping the ICs or busing?
Bussing does seem unlikely. We've provided enough cover for partners to defect from the DatSwan wagon. And scum don't sheep, though they do use IC votes as justifications for their own votes on town.
Bussing does seem unlikely. We've provided enough cover for partners to defect from the DatSwan wagon. And scum don't sheep, though they do use IC votes as justifications for their own votes on town.
You really don't think scum would be worried about moving to a town lynch from one that's already basically got quorum?
Who on the wagon do you think is bussing if DatSwan is scum?
Vote Count 3.3
DatSwan (5): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus
A Drowned Kernel (3): Uncleeurope, Debatepro, EFHW
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan
Not Voting (2): Robz888, jotheonah
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends at Sep. 27, 18:00 forum time. That is in 3 days and 4+ hours.
The difference from most games is that here the wagon built quickly as soon as no duel was announced, at the "beginning" of the day, while most wagons accrue bussers at the end of a day.Who on the wagon do you think is bussing if DatSwan is scum?
I'm not sure, I haven't thought through it here, it happens in less pressure (lynchpool). If we're just gaming it out. Votes were Joth(IC), MCMC, ADK, Joseph(IC), e, aweclus. If I were scum and DS was my partner, I would have considered voting for him after the Joseph vote. So probability of busing by partner increases as you move from left to right in the list.
I don't really get the ADK wagon if I'm honest. For me, e or Robz would be my preferred alt wagonVote Count 3.3
DatSwan (5): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus
A Drowned Kernel (3): Uncleeurope, Debatepro, EFHW
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan
Not Voting (2): Robz888, jotheonah
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends at Sep. 27, 18:00 forum time. That is in 3 days and 4+ hours.
Well well well. The Swan lynch is not a fait accompli after all. Robz and I together could make ADK happen. What do you think about that Robz? Better or worse than Swan?
I don't really get the ADK wagon if I'm honest. For me, e or Robz would be my preferred alt wagonVote Count 3.3
DatSwan (5): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus
A Drowned Kernel (3): Uncleeurope, Debatepro, EFHW
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan
Not Voting (2): Robz888, jotheonah
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends at Sep. 27, 18:00 forum time. That is in 3 days and 4+ hours.
Well well well. The Swan lynch is not a fait accompli after all. Robz and I together could make ADK happen. What do you think about that Robz? Better or worse than Swan?
Who on the wagon do you think is bussing if DatSwan is scum?
I don't really get the ADK wagon if I'm honest. For me, e or Robz would be my preferred alt wagonVote Count 3.3
DatSwan (5): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus
A Drowned Kernel (3): Uncleeurope, Debatepro, EFHW
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan
Not Voting (2): Robz888, jotheonah
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends at Sep. 27, 18:00 forum time. That is in 3 days and 4+ hours.
Well well well. The Swan lynch is not a fait accompli after all. Robz and I together could make ADK happen. What do you think about that Robz? Better or worse than Swan?
I 100% agree with this, the adk wagon is bad. Sorry I’m behind and probably cant catchup until much later today or tomorrow but whoa boy.
Someone do some research anyone willing to lynch adk who voted against the duel is pretty anti-town unless their read on adk has flipped quite dramatically since pre duel
I'm not exactly staying off the DS wagon, but it would be the hammer if I voted him now, and we should let our IC do that, right?
Vote Count 3.3
DatSwan (5): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus
A Drowned Kernel (3): Uncleeurope, Debatepro, EFHW
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan
Not Voting (2): Robz888, jotheonah
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends at Sep. 27, 18:00 forum time. That is in 3 days and 4+ hours.
Well well well. The Swan lynch is not a fait accompli after all. Robz and I together could make ADK happen. What do you think about that Robz? Better or worse than Swan?
Vote Count 3.3
DatSwan (5): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus
A Drowned Kernel (3): Uncleeurope, Debatepro, EFHW
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan
Not Voting (2): Robz888, jotheonah
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 ends at Sep. 27, 18:00 forum time. That is in 3 days and 4+ hours.
Well well well. The Swan lynch is not a fait accompli after all. Robz and I together could make ADK happen. What do you think about that Robz? Better or worse than Swan?
I guess the real duel was inside us all along.
I'm not exactly staying off the DS wagon, but it would be the hammer if I voted him now, and we should let our IC do that, right?Why?
I guess the real duel was inside us all along.
I'm not exactly staying off the DS wagon, but it would be the hammer if I voted him now, and we should let our IC do that, right?Why?
I was scum I would have just hammered Dat Swan...
Vote: e??
Ack, I missed.
I was scum I would have just hammered Dat Swan...It would be a bit obvious though if you were scum and Swan is town
Vote Count - Swan
DatSwan (5): mcmcsalot, A Drowned Kernel, Joseph2302, e, Awaclus
A Drowned Kernel (5): Uncleeurope, Debatepro, EFHW, DatSwan, Robz888
Not Voting (2): jotheonah
Robz wagon looks scummy.
I'm going with vote: Robz because I felt like he was trying to sway town through social pressure more than logic.
You didn't join me when I voted Robz before, and you weren't even voting then, iirc.Robz wagon looks scummy.
ADK, Robz, and Aweclus have been in my preferred Lynch pool all day. So it just scummy from ADK? In his defense he’s followed the IC on two consecutive votes. :)
I assumed you would support this vote because of this....I'm going with vote: Robz because I felt like he was trying to sway town through social pressure more than logic.
If we had a PR with useful information last night, could be good to claim
Ffs course, we didn't duelIf we had a PR with useful information last night, could be good to claim
I think the possibility of a PR only exists if we duel.
Votes by for town:
ADK: Pubby, MiX, Glooble(Hammer), DatSwan(Hammer), Joth
Awaclus: Pubby, MiX, Glooble, DatSwan(Unannounced L1)
Robz: Pubby, MiX, Glooble(Unannounced L1), Joth
e: Pubby(Hammer), Glooble, Datswan
If we had a PR with useful information last night, could be good to claim
I think the possibility of a PR only exists if we duel.
Votes by for town:
ADK: Pubby, MiX, Glooble(Hammer), DatSwan(Hammer), Joth
Awaclus: Pubby, MiX, Glooble, DatSwan(Unannounced L1)
Robz: Pubby, MiX, Glooble(Unannounced L1), Joth
e: Pubby(Hammer), Glooble, Datswan
Although this either means joth found the scum N2, or joth was the target N2joth targeted DatSwan N2.
Oh yes. So i was correct with my first thought- joth was shot twiceAlthough this either means joth found the scum N2, or joth was the target N2joth targeted DatSwan N2.
If we had a PR with useful information last night, could be good to claim
I think the possibility of a PR only exists if we duel.
Votes by for town:
ADK: Pubby, MiX, Glooble(Hammer), DatSwan(Hammer), Joth
Awaclus: Pubby, MiX, Glooble, DatSwan(Unannounced L1)
Robz: Pubby, MiX, Glooble(Unannounced L1), Joth
e: Pubby(Hammer), Glooble, Datswan
But i think at least 2 of the 4 you mentioned are scum
Scum has surely been on many of these mislynches
So are we just waiting for the duel. Not sure if I have the odds right but the probability calculator I used said we have a 50% change of getting scum in the duel. So if one of the scummiest of the scummies is in there we should go all in.
vote: adk
So are we just waiting for the duel. Not sure if I have the odds right but the probability calculator I used said we have a 50% change of getting scum in the duel. So if one of the scummiest of the scummies is in there we should go all in.It's 58% chance of at least one scum in the duel, and 8% chance of 2 scum
vote: adk
I will always be vla until sunday. I will likely vote for the duel unless it’s Jospeh vs me or something.Really, that me/ADK duel seemed such a bad option
Really wish we had lynched ADK, or better yet voted up the duel with him in it. Are people starting to realize I was actually kinda right or no?
I will always be vla until sunday. I will likely vote for the duel unless it’s Jospeh vs me or something.Really, that me/ADK duel seemed such a bad option
Really wish we had lynched ADK, or better yet voted up the duel with him in it. Are people starting to realize I was actually kinda right or no?
Vote: Robz
I'm not saying ADK is town, I'm just finding Robz scummier right nowI will always be vla until sunday. I will likely vote for the duel unless it’s Jospeh vs me or something.Really, that me/ADK duel seemed such a bad option
Really wish we had lynched ADK, or better yet voted up the duel with him in it. Are people starting to realize I was actually kinda right or no?
Vote: Robz
Joseph dude... that duel didn’t pass because 3 scum, you, and a few uncertain town voted against it.
ADK hammered town in back to back votes, that’s not tunneling it’s empirical evidence of being scum . We can ignore what is in front of our faces. Plus he’s not helping, where is the VCA, POE, analysis of wagons? Joth set up Robz to hammer DS and ADK circumvented that “test”. We already knew ADK would vote for DS, the info about Robz could have been helpful. If ADK is town the let’s see him produce some work product that can be scrutinized.
Why is no one questioning the hasty generalization that because one scum is likely to be hiding, that another isn’t visibly the scummiest person in the game. In my limited experience the scum is spread across the visibility spectrum.
I will always be vla until sunday. I will likely vote for the duel unless it’s Jospeh vs me or something.Really, that me/ADK duel seemed such a bad option
Really wish we had lynched ADK, or better yet voted up the duel with him in it. Are people starting to realize I was actually kinda right or no?
Vote: Robz
Joseph dude... that duel didn’t pass because 3 scum, you, and a few uncertain town voted against it.
ADK hammered town in back to back votes, that’s not tunneling it’s empirical evidence of being scum . We can ignore what is in front of our faces. Plus he’s not helping, where is the VCA, POE, analysis of wagons? Joth set up Robz to hammer DS and ADK circumvented that “test”. We already knew ADK would vote for DS, the info about Robz could have been helpful. If ADK is town the let’s see him produce some work product that can be scrutinized.
Why is no one questioning the hasty generalization that because one scum is likely to be hiding, that another isn’t visibly the scummiest person in the game. In my limited experience the scum is spread across the visibility spectrum.
I will always be vla until sunday. I will likely vote for the duel unless it’s Jospeh vs me or something.Really, that me/ADK duel seemed such a bad option
Really wish we had lynched ADK, or better yet voted up the duel with him in it. Are people starting to realize I was actually kinda right or no?
Vote: Robz
Joseph dude... that duel didn’t pass because 3 scum, you, and a few uncertain town voted against it.
ADK hammered town in back to back votes, that’s not tunneling it’s empirical evidence of being scum . We can ignore what is in front of our faces. Plus he’s not helping, where is the VCA, POE, analysis of wagons? Joth set up Robz to hammer DS and ADK circumvented that “test”. We already knew ADK would vote for DS, the info about Robz could have been helpful. If ADK is town the let’s see him produce some work product that can be scrutinized.
Why is no one questioning the hasty generalization that because one scum is likely to be hiding, that another isn’t visibly the scummiest person in the game. In my limited experience the scum is spread across the visibility spectrum.
Well everyone was so sure that DatSwan was scum in plain sight yesterday. And they weren'tI will always be vla until sunday. I will likely vote for the duel unless it’s Jospeh vs me or something.Really, that me/ADK duel seemed such a bad option
Really wish we had lynched ADK, or better yet voted up the duel with him in it. Are people starting to realize I was actually kinda right or no?
Vote: Robz
Joseph dude... that duel didn’t pass because 3 scum, you, and a few uncertain town voted against it.
ADK hammered town in back to back votes, that’s not tunneling it’s empirical evidence of being scum . We can ignore what is in front of our faces. Plus he’s not helping, where is the VCA, POE, analysis of wagons? Joth set up Robz to hammer DS and ADK circumvented that “test”. We already knew ADK would vote for DS, the info about Robz could have been helpful. If ADK is town the let’s see him produce some work product that can be scrutinized.
Why is no one questioning the hasty generalization that because one scum is likely to be hiding, that another isn’t visibly the scummiest person in the game. In my limited experience the scum is spread across the visibility spectrum.
This. All of this.
Sorry I've been quiet. Will put time in this weekend.
Assuming that silverspawn has picked somewhat reasonable PRs, it should be sometimes a good idea to duel and sometimes a bad idea, depending on who the randomly picked players turn out to be. If it was always correct to duel, why on earth would it be optional?
Claiming votes is stupid and we shouldn't do it. Scum can just fakeclaim they voted for the outcome that went through so we don't learn anything useful from it, but scum does.
Someone's reads from two days is not going to be comparable to someone's development throughout the day. Not even slighly comparable. You're just lying for towncred.
It's still better than nothing. If I was scum, getting to know which way a random townie voted would be more important to me than whatever "towncred" you think I'm getting out of this.I have a reason to want to know Debatepro's vote.
Well it's nice of you to admit that. Vote: MiX
Vote: pubby 8)
Vote: Glooble
Why does killing MiX to frame you make any sense at all?
If you're scum, and you see one town player with a lot of pressure on him, and another town player is pushing his case pretty hard, it makes a lot of sense to kill the player pushing the case. That way you can use the dead player's towniness to advance the case on the player who's under pressure.
That doesn't make any sense for multiple reasons:
- Scum in general is not in any hurry to lynch people who already have a lot of pressure on them. Town!you were already a viable mislynch target, and it would have been better value to frame someone who wasn't one.
- MiX himself was another very viable mislynch target. It doesn't make sense to remove a potential mislynch from the player pool just to put some extra pressure on another one.
- Obviously getting town!your mislynch through would have been easier with MiX's help.
- If the point was to frame town!you, scum could have killed anyone else who expressed a scum read on you instead of killing the most antitown one.
5. the f.ds meta is to not pay any attention to night kills.
That being said, Vote: DatSwan
Should we all reveal whether we supported the duel or not?I think so. I'm especially curious what e and Awaclus voted.
I voted no.Do you think e is town?
I voted no.Do you think e is town?
I voted yes.
I voted no.Do you think e is town?
I voted yes.
I don't particularly think he is town.
I think I want to hear what some people say before I hear what other people say (about how they voted). Joseph at least should not chime in until others have claimed their duel vote.I will claim last
I think E should go next.
So what was your thought process in voting no?I voted no.Do you think e is town?
I voted yes.
I don't particularly think he is town.
I wrote a vote counting program with output like Space's, if anyone is interested.
I voted yes bc both made up 50% of the empirically anti-Town voting block (others are adk & Robz).
I voted yes bc both made up 50% of the empirically anti-Town voting block (others are adk & Robz).
Why am I empirically anti- town?
So what was your thought process in voting no?
DAY 1
Vote count at post #78
MiX (1): Awaclus
Not Voting (13): ADK, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, Joseph, joth, mcmc, MiX, pubby, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #99
MiX (2): Awaclus, ADK
Not Voting (12): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, Joseph, joth, mcmc, MiX, pubby, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #100
MiX (2): Awaclus, ADK
Glooble (1): MiX
Not Voting (11): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, Joseph, joth, mcmc, pubby, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #106
MiX (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Glooble (1): MiX
Not Voting (10): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, joth, mcmc, pubby, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #109
MiX (4): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph, Robz
Glooble (1): MiX
Not Voting (9): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, joth, mcmc, pubby, Swan
Vote count at post #117
MiX (4): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph, Robz
Glooble (1): MiX
Robz (1): joth
Not Voting (8): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, mcmc, pubby, Swan
Vote count at post #118
MiX (4): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph, Robz
Glooble (1): MiX
Robz (2): joth, pubby
Not Voting (7): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, mcmc, Swan
Vote count at post #121
MiX (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Glooble (1): MiX
Robz (2): joth, pubby
joth (1): Robz
Not Voting (7): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, mcmc, Swan
Vote count at post #132
MiX (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Robz (2): joth, pubby
joth (1): Robz
pubby (1): MiX
Not Voting (7): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, mcmc, Swan
Vote count at post #155
MiX (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Robz (2): joth, pubby
joth (1): Robz
pubby (2): MiX, mcmc
Not Voting (6): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, Swan
Vote count at post #173
MiX (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Robz (3): joth, pubby, Swan
joth (1): Robz
pubby (2): MiX, mcmc
Not Voting (5): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble
Vote count at post #192
MiX (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Robz (3): joth, pubby, Swan
joth (1): Robz
pubby (2): MiX, mcmc
Swan (1): Glooble
Not Voting (4): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW
Vote count at post #213
MiX (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Robz (2): pubby, Swan
joth (1): Robz
pubby (3): MiX, mcmc, joth
Swan (1): Glooble
Not Voting (4): Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW
Vote count at post #217
MiX (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Robz (2): pubby, Swan
joth (1): Robz
pubby (3): MiX, mcmc, joth
Swan (1): Glooble
Glooble (1): e
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, EFHW
Vote count at post #238
MiX (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Robz (2): pubby, Swan
joth (1): Robz
pubby (4): MiX, mcmc, joth, Glooble
Glooble (1): e
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, EFHW
Vote count at post #240
MiX (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Robz (3): pubby, Swan, EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (4): MiX, mcmc, joth, Glooble
Glooble (1): e
Not Voting (2): Debate, Eddie
Vote count at post #261
MiX (2): Awaclus, Joseph
Robz (3): pubby, Swan, EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (4): MiX, mcmc, joth, Glooble
Glooble (1): e
e (1): ADK
Not Voting (2): Debate, Eddie
Vote count at post #271
MiX (2): Awaclus, Joseph
Robz (3): pubby, Swan, EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (3): mcmc, joth, Glooble
Glooble (1): e
e (2): ADK, MiX
Not Voting (2): Debate, Eddie
Vote count at post #304
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (3): pubby, Swan, EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (3): mcmc, joth, Glooble
Glooble (1): e
e (2): ADK, MiX
ADK (1): Joseph
Not Voting (2): Debate, Eddie
Vote count at post #305
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (3): pubby, Swan, EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (3): mcmc, joth, Glooble
Glooble (1): e
e (1): ADK
ADK (1): Joseph
Joseph (1): MiX
Not Voting (2): Debate, Eddie
Vote count at post #325
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (3): pubby, Swan, EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (3): mcmc, joth, Glooble
Glooble (1): e
e (1): ADK
ADK (1): Joseph
Awaclus (1): MiX
Not Voting (2): Debate, Eddie
Vote count at post #342
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (3): pubby, Swan, EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (3): mcmc, joth, Glooble
Glooble (1): e
e (1): ADK
ADK (1): Joseph
Debate (1): MiX
Not Voting (2): Debate, Eddie
Vote count at post #354
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (3): pubby, Swan, EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (3): mcmc, joth, Glooble
e (1): ADK
ADK (1): Joseph
Debate (1): MiX
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e
Vote count at post #359
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (2): pubby, EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (3): mcmc, joth, Glooble
e (2): ADK, Swan
ADK (1): Joseph
Debate (1): MiX
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e
Vote count at post #371
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (1): EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (3): mcmc, joth, Glooble
e (2): ADK, Swan
ADK (1): Joseph
Debate (1): MiX
Eddie (1): pubby
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e
Vote count at post #380
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (1): EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (2): mcmc, Glooble
e (2): ADK, Swan
ADK (1): Joseph
Debate (1): MiX
Eddie (1): pubby
Glooble (1): joth
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e
Vote count at post #382
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (1): EFHW
joth (1): Robz
pubby (2): mcmc, Glooble
e (2): ADK, Swan
ADK (1): Joseph
Eddie (1): pubby
Glooble (2): joth, MiX
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e
Vote count at post #387
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (1): EFHW
pubby (2): mcmc, Glooble
e (2): ADK, Swan
ADK (1): Joseph
Eddie (1): pubby
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, Robz
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e
Vote count at post #394
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (1): EFHW
pubby (3): mcmc, Glooble, Joseph
e (2): ADK, Swan
Eddie (1): pubby
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, Robz
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e
Vote count at post #401
MiX (1): Awaclus
Robz (1): EFHW
pubby (2): mcmc, Joseph
e (2): ADK, Swan
Eddie (1): pubby
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, Robz
joth (1): Glooble
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e
Vote count at post #407
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (2): mcmc, Joseph
e (2): ADK, Swan
Eddie (1): pubby
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, Robz
joth (2): Glooble, EFHW
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e
Vote count at post #412
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (2): mcmc, Joseph
e (1): Swan
Eddie (1): pubby
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, Robz
joth (3): Glooble, EFHW, ADK
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e
Vote count at post #429
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (3): mcmc, Joseph, Robz
e (1): Swan
Eddie (1): pubby
Glooble (2): joth, MiX
joth (3): Glooble, EFHW, ADK
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e
Vote count at post #460
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (3): mcmc, Joseph, Robz
e (1): Swan
Eddie (1): pubby
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, ADK
joth (2): Glooble, EFHW
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e
Vote count at post #481
MiX (1): Awaclus
pubby (3): mcmc, Joseph, Robz
e (1): Swan
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, ADK
joth (2): Glooble, EFHW
Joseph (1): pubby
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e
Vote count at post #483
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
e (1): Swan
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, ADK
joth (2): Glooble, EFHW
Joseph (1): pubby
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e
Vote count at post #484
pubby (5): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, EFHW
e (1): Swan
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, ADK
joth (1): Glooble
Joseph (1): pubby
Not Voting (3): Debate, Eddie, e
Vote count at post #508
pubby (5): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, EFHW
e (1): Swan
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, ADK
joth (1): Glooble
Joseph (1): pubby
Robz (1): e
Not Voting (2): Debate, Eddie
Vote count at post #509
pubby (5): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, EFHW
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, ADK
joth (1): Glooble
Joseph (1): pubby
Robz (2): e, Swan
Not Voting (2): Debate, Eddie
Vote count at post #510
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, ADK
joth (1): Glooble
Joseph (1): pubby
Robz (3): e, Swan, EFHW
Not Voting (2): Debate, Eddie
Vote count at post #511
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, ADK
joth (1): Glooble
Joseph (1): pubby
Robz (4): e, Swan, EFHW, Debate
Not Voting (1): Eddie
Vote count at post #512
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
Glooble (3): joth, MiX, ADK
joth (1): Glooble
Robz (5): e, Swan, EFHW, Debate, pubby
Not Voting (1): Eddie
Vote count at post #514
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
Glooble (2): joth, MiX
joth (1): Glooble
Robz (5): e, Swan, EFHW, Debate, pubby
Debate (1): ADK
Not Voting (1): Eddie
Vote count at post #516
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
Glooble (2): joth, MiX
joth (1): Glooble
Robz (4): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby
Debate (2): ADK, Swan
Not Voting (1): Eddie
Vote count at post #518
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
Glooble (1): joth
joth (1): Glooble
Robz (4): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby
Debate (3): ADK, Swan, MiX
Not Voting (1): Eddie
Vote count at post #530
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
Glooble (2): joth, MiX
joth (1): Glooble
Robz (4): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby
Debate (2): ADK, Swan
Not Voting (1): Eddie
Vote count at post #531
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
Glooble (1): joth
joth (1): Glooble
Robz (4): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby
Debate (3): ADK, Swan, MiX
Not Voting (1): Eddie
Vote count at post #540
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
Glooble (1): joth
Robz (5): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble
Debate (3): ADK, Swan, MiX
Not Voting (1): Eddie
Vote count at post #548
pubby (4): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus
Robz (5): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble
Debate (4): ADK, Swan, MiX, joth
Not Voting (1): Eddie
Vote count at post #562
pubby (5): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, MiX
Robz (5): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble
Debate (3): ADK, Swan, joth
Not Voting (1): Eddie
Vote count at post #584
pubby (6): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, MiX, ADK
Robz (5): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble
Debate (2): Swan, joth
Not Voting (1): Eddie
Vote count at post #591
pubby (7): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, MiX, ADK, joth
Robz (5): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble
Debate (1): Swan
Not Voting (1): Eddie
Vote count at post #594
pubby (6): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, MiX, ADK
Robz (6): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
Debate (1): Swan
Not Voting (1): Eddie
Vote count at post #596
pubby (5): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK
Robz (6): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
Debate (1): Swan
Joseph (1): MiX
Not Voting (1): Eddie
Vote count at post #600
pubby (5): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK
Robz (6): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
Debate (1): Swan
Joseph (1): MiX
e (1): Eddie
Vote count at post #607
pubby (5): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK
Robz (6): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
Debate (2): Swan, MiX
e (1): Eddie
Vote count at post #608
pubby (5): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK
Robz (6): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
Debate (1): Swan
e (1): Eddie
Joseph (1): MiX
Vote count at post #614
pubby (6): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX
Robz (6): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
Debate (1): Swan
e (1): Eddie
Vote count at post #633
pubby (6): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX
Robz (6): e, EFHW, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
e (2): Eddie, Swan
Vote count at post #643
pubby (7): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX, EFHW
Robz (5): e, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
e (2): Eddie, Swan
Vote count at post #654
pubby (8): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX, EFHW, e
Robz (4): Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
e (2): Eddie, Swan
DAY 2
Vote count at post #663
Glooble (1): Awaclus
Not Voting (11): ADK, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, Joseph, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #671
Glooble (1): Awaclus
Awaclus (1): e
Not Voting (10): ADK, Debate, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, Joseph, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #684
Glooble (1): Awaclus
Awaclus (1): e
e (1): ADK
Not Voting (9): Debate, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, Joseph, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #685
Glooble (2): Awaclus, ADK
Awaclus (1): e
Not Voting (9): Debate, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, Joseph, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #687
Glooble (2): Awaclus, ADK
Awaclus (1): e
Robz (1): joth
Not Voting (8): Debate, Eddie, EFHW, Glooble, Joseph, mcmc, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #701
Glooble (2): Awaclus, ADK
Awaclus (1): e
Robz (1): joth
ADK (1): Glooble
Not Voting (7): Debate, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, mcmc, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #726
Glooble (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Awaclus (1): e
Robz (1): joth
ADK (1): Glooble
Not Voting (6): Debate, Eddie, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #737
Glooble (3): Awaclus, ADK, Joseph
Awaclus (2): e, Eddie
Robz (1): joth
ADK (1): Glooble
Not Voting (5): Debate, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Swan
DUEL RESET
Vote count at post #790
joth (1): Glooble
Not Voting (11): ADK, Awaclus, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #791
joth (1): Glooble
Glooble (1): Awaclus
Not Voting (10): ADK, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #795
joth (1): Glooble
Glooble (2): Awaclus, joth
Not Voting (9): ADK, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, mcmc, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #811
joth (2): Glooble, Joseph
Glooble (2): Awaclus, joth
Not Voting (8): ADK, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #826
joth (3): Glooble, Joseph, EFHW
Glooble (2): Awaclus, joth
Not Voting (7): ADK, Debate, e, Eddie, mcmc, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #848
joth (3): Glooble, Joseph, EFHW
Glooble (3): Awaclus, joth, Swan
Not Voting (6): ADK, Debate, e, Eddie, mcmc, Robz
Vote count at post #885
joth (2): Glooble, EFHW
Glooble (4): Awaclus, joth, Swan, Joseph
Not Voting (6): ADK, Debate, e, Eddie, mcmc, Robz
Vote count at post #887
joth (3): Glooble, EFHW, Debate
Glooble (4): Awaclus, joth, Swan, Joseph
Not Voting (5): ADK, e, Eddie, mcmc, Robz
Vote count at post #899
joth (3): Glooble, EFHW, Debate
Glooble (5): Awaclus, joth, Swan, Joseph, e
Not Voting (4): ADK, Eddie, mcmc, Robz
Vote count at post #907
joth (3): Glooble, EFHW, Debate
Glooble (6): Awaclus, joth, Swan, Joseph, e, Robz
Not Voting (3): ADK, Eddie, mcmc
Vote count at post #938
joth (3): Glooble, EFHW, Debate
Glooble (7): Awaclus, joth, Swan, Joseph, e, Robz, ADK
Not Voting (2): Eddie, mcmc
DAY 3
Vote count at post #960
Robz (1): ADK
Not Voting (10): Awaclus, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #966
Robz (1): ADK
Eddie (1): e
Not Voting (9): Awaclus, Debate, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #967
Robz (1): ADK
Eddie (1): e
e (1): Eddie
Not Voting (8): Awaclus, Debate, EFHW, Joseph, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #970
Robz (1): ADK
Eddie (1): e
e (1): Eddie
joth (1): Joseph
Not Voting (7): Awaclus, Debate, EFHW, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #1040
Robz (2): ADK, e
e (1): Eddie
joth (1): Joseph
Not Voting (7): Awaclus, Debate, EFHW, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #1065
Robz (2): ADK, e
e (1): Eddie
Swan (1): Joseph
Not Voting (7): Awaclus, Debate, EFHW, joth, mcmc, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #1093
Robz (2): ADK, e
e (1): Eddie
Swan (2): Joseph, joth
Not Voting (6): Awaclus, Debate, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #1098
Robz (2): ADK, e
e (1): Eddie
Swan (3): Joseph, joth, Awaclus
Not Voting (5): Debate, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Swan
NO DUEL RESET
Vote count at post #1118
Swan (1): joth
Not Voting (10): ADK, Awaclus, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, mcmc, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #1119
Swan (2): joth, mcmc
Not Voting (9): ADK, Awaclus, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #1120
Swan (3): joth, mcmc, ADK
Not Voting (8): Awaclus, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #1121
Swan (4): joth, mcmc, ADK, Joseph
Not Voting (7): Awaclus, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Robz, Swan
Vote count at post #1128
Swan (4): joth, mcmc, ADK, Joseph
Joseph (1): Swan
Not Voting (6): Awaclus, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Robz
Vote count at post #1130
Swan (3): mcmc, ADK, Joseph
Joseph (1): Swan
Not Voting (7): Awaclus, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Robz, joth
Vote count at post #1141
Swan (4): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e
Joseph (1): Swan
Not Voting (6): Awaclus, Debate, Eddie, EFHW, Robz, joth
Vote count at post #1142
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
Joseph (1): Swan
Not Voting (5): Debate, Eddie, EFHW, Robz, joth
Vote count at post #1147
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
Joseph (1): Swan
Robz (1): EFHW
Not Voting (4): Debate, Eddie, Robz, joth
Vote count at post #1169
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
Joseph (1): Swan
Debate (1): EFHW
Not Voting (4): Debate, Eddie, Robz, joth
Vote count at post #1216
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
Joseph (1): Swan
Debate (1): EFHW
e (1): Eddie
Not Voting (3): Debate, Robz, joth
Vote count at post #1216
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
Joseph (1): Swan
Debate (1): EFHW
ADK (1): Eddie
Not Voting (3): Debate, Robz, joth
Vote count at post #1217
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
Joseph (1): Swan
Debate (1): EFHW
ADK (1): Eddie
Robz (1): Debate
Not Voting (2): Robz, joth
Vote count at post #1217
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
Joseph (1): Swan
Debate (1): EFHW
ADK (2): Eddie, Debate
Not Voting (2): Robz, joth
Vote count at post #1235
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
Joseph (1): Swan
ADK (3): Eddie, Debate, EFHW
Not Voting (2): Robz, joth
Vote count at post #1262
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
ADK (4): Eddie, Debate, EFHW, Swan
Not Voting (2): Robz, joth
Vote count at post #1278
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
ADK (5): Eddie, Debate, EFHW, Swan, Robz
Not Voting (1): joth
Vote count at post #1285
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
ADK (5): Eddie, Debate, EFHW, Swan, Robz
Robz (1): joth
Vote count at post #1286
Swan (5): mcmc, ADK, Joseph, e, Awaclus
ADK (4): Eddie, EFHW, Swan, Robz
Robz (2): joth, Debate
Vote count at post #1287
Swan (4): mcmc, Joseph, e, Awaclus
ADK (4): Eddie, EFHW, Swan, Robz
Robz (3): joth, Debate, ADK
Vote count at post #1288
Swan (4): mcmc, Joseph, e, Awaclus
ADK (3): EFHW, Swan, Robz
Robz (3): joth, Debate, ADK
e (1): Eddie
Vote count at post #1299
Swan (5): mcmc, Joseph, e, Awaclus, joth
ADK (3): EFHW, Swan, Robz
Robz (2): Debate, ADK
e (1): Eddie
Vote count at post #1301
Swan (6): mcmc, Joseph, e, Awaclus, joth, ADK
ADK (3): EFHW, Swan, Robz
Robz (1): Debate
e (1): Eddie
I voted yes bc both made up 50% of the empirically anti-Town voting block (others are adk & Robz).
Why am I empirically anti- town?
Votes by for town:
ADK: Pubby, MiX, Glooble(Hammer), DatSwan(Hammer), Joth
Awaclus: Pubby, MiX, Glooble, DatSwan(Unannounced L1)
Robz: Pubby, MiX, Glooble(Unannounced L1), Joth
e: Pubby(Hammer), Glooble, Datswan
I am empirically anti-town because I voted for people who ended up being town? I'm sorry, this is kind of a stupid methodology to describe as empirically anti-town. It would mean that not voting, or rarely voting, is a good strategy to appear town, and this should generally not be assumed as an indicator of towniness. So please stop pushing it?
Talking about reads in general is bad for town but talking about reads on people we can't even lynch today is extremely anti-town and you should stop doing it ASAP.
So what was your thought process in voting no?
I don't want to get lynched.
Vote: e??
Ack, I missed.
I'm off to bed now, if someone gets time, can they collate a duel/no duel list? Thanks #ic #gettheminionstodoitformeWe've created a monster!
Well every time I've tried to do stats this game, I've done them wrong and you've ended up correctingI'm off to bed now, if someone gets time, can they collate a duel/no duel list? Thanks #ic #gettheminionstodoitformeWe've created a monster!
------------- | -ADK v e- | - | -Joseph v ADK- | -Awaclus v e- |
ADK | N | Y | N | Y |
Awaclus | ? | ? | ? | N |
N | N? | Y | ||
Debatepro | N | N | Y | Y |
e | Y | Y | N | Y |
Eddie(0Ix) | NV | NV | ? | Y |
EFHW | N | Y | ? | Y |
N | Y | |||
Joseph | Y | Y | N | ? |
Y | Y | N | ||
mcmc | N | N | N | NV |
N | ||||
N | ||||
Robz | Y | Y | Y | Y |
So robz and joseph why do you guys lean awaclus over E.
I don’t think awaclus has played out of the ordinary this game but I definitely need to reread him. E hasn’t done anything to strike me as towny and the voting for two duels that includes himself feels a lot like the whole “I’m so blue I’ll vote no to go on this mission” from Avalon. But idk, joth and glooble both voted yes to duels that included themselves and we really want the pr. I guess maybe it’s scummier that awaclus voted no for the duel but doesn’t have a town read on e
I think I voted no.
His whole never share information or reads meta? Check
His "I can never do anything scummy" meta? Check
His voting for duels doesn't really fit a traditional meta since it isn't a traditional mechanism, but still... Check
where he scum reads his opponent
he has been stridently anti-duel
Assuming that silverspawn has picked somewhat reasonable PRs, it should be sometimes a good idea to duel and sometimes a bad idea
Mcmc and EFHW are raising arguments for Awaclus being scum than generally resonate with me. He's been very quiet, not really staking out positions, has chilled discussion in a very annoying way that can come across as pro-town but is actually very materially pro-scum, and he has been stridently anti-duel, whereas the people we know are town have tended to be pro-duel.
Given the lack of content (again!) in this day, I think scum are just able to hold back again.I worked hard on my posts. I consider them content.
Which makes me think this duel is town/town or scum/scum. And I think there's a good chance that it's the latter
I hope these posts were helpful to somebody. I feel pulled in both directions.
where he scum reads his opponent
This is alternative facts. I have never said that.
where he scum reads his opponent
This is alternative facts. I have never said that.
Well, give me the actual narrative then.
My apologies. Other than you, not much from many other peopleGiven the lack of content (again!) in this day, I think scum are just able to hold back again.I worked hard on my posts. I consider them content.
Which makes me think this duel is town/town or scum/scum. And I think there's a good chance that it's the latter
where he scum reads his opponent
This is alternative facts. I have never said that.
Well, give me the actual narrative then.
where he scum reads his opponent
This is alternative facts. I have never said that.
Well, give me the actual narrative then.
Are you going to vote for yourself over me if I give you the actual narrative?
I voted yes
I'm scum reading e and am leaning there for my vote but need to do a reread first
I voted yes
I'm scum reading e and am leaning there for my vote but need to do a reread first
Have you had a chance to do your reread? Interested in your thoughts about which one of these is the best choice, in part because I've reconsidered my tunneling.
Vote: e
Vote: e??
Ack, I missed.
Vote: AwaclusWant to give your reasoning?
Vote: AwaclusWant to give your reasoning?
I just reread awaclus, I have my thoughts ready but I want to hear from robz first.
it is pro-town to be pro-duel
@Awaclus, same question
My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.
There's also very little interaction between the two of them throughout the game (until today obviously), with the exception of an interesting (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=19733.msg810485#msg810485) exchange (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=19733.msg810486#msg810486) at the start of D2
I think it's wishful thinking to suppose that they are both scum, but it doesn't feel like it a little bit since they aren't going after each other very hard.If they were both scum wouldn't they be bussing as much as possible, since one of them is definitely going to get caught?
I think it's wishful thinking to suppose that they are both scum, but it doesn't feel like it a little bit since they aren't going after each other very hard.
I mean I guess the real thing is though, I’m the both scum scenario, the inevitability of a scum lynch would be demoralizing for scum, and this they would not work that hard building cases, which fits you both.Except they won't both die. Only one will flip, so they each want to persuade town that only one of them is scum. Two scum is statistically unlikely, so at least one of them would try to win this duel in a towny way so that we don't even consider the possibility that both are scum.
My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.
Who are hedgy scum reads?
Debate, I don't see you weighing in here at all. What are your thoughts?
My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.
Who are hedgy scum reads?
Robz and efhw
On top of the hedgyness the fact that they are now pushing this narrative that both e and awaclus are scum seems extremely silly.
My biggest concern with lynching awaclus is the fact that I don’t think this is how scum!robz treats scum!awaclus. It looks more like scum!robz reacting to a duel on town!awaclus and town!e
This is not the point in the game where scum!robz busses a partner unless he has to and this isn’t the way he would do it if he did have to.
I could see scum!Robz as a scum!e partner, but shouldn't we see who here is scum before voting based on partner speculation?
Yes I think Robz may well be scum. But Robz isn't one of the options right nowDebate, I don't see you weighing in here at all. What are your thoughts?
I doing my best by probing and providing info, I usually don't make it this far and we're moving. Here is where I am at. I’m feeling pretty good about this duel. The lynch (#654) below is e’s hammer of pubby. Because I know my alignment we have all town and e on Robz with pubby at L1 in #643. So if you are town, on that pubby lynch, and have a strong town read for another person on that vote, then we have them.
Hypothetically, if eddie is town, the entire scum team was on pubby with an e hammer. If, as ADK et al have hypothesized that scum will stay off town, that leaves only eddie. In that case, which of the two is likely eddie’s partner. I’ve seen eddie tunnel town as scum, which he is doing with e. So I wonder if how we feel about eddie may inform this decision.
Vote count at post #643
pubby (7): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX, EFHW
Robz (5): e, Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
e (2): Eddie, Swan
Vote count at post #654
pubby ( 8 ): mcmc, Joseph, Robz, Awaclus, ADK, MiX, EFHW, e
Robz (4): Debate, pubby, Glooble, joth
e (2): Eddie, Swan
I found EFHW and ADK’s read on awaclus to be persuasive. Movers come tomorrow, so I’ll be super busy IRL, but there will be some time and I’ll keep up as best I can.
So, the good news is I did a reread and came away with the conviction that there's a fairly decent chance that e and awaclus are both scum
Both awaclus and e have a lot of posts D1 and D2 that are low-content; joke posts and posts talking about the duels and the setup, with very little posts giving actual reads in between. Both voted early on datswan, yet were involved in very little of the following discussion
There's also very little interaction between the two of them throughout the game (until today obviously), with the exception of an interesting (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=19733.msg810485#msg810485) exchange (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=19733.msg810486#msg810486) at the start of D2
What struck me is that
1) It seems too immediately aware of the implications of the kill. e's post assumes awaclus's reasoning behind the vote, and that assumption goes unchallenged. It has the feeling of being a staged interaction to me
2) When the duel goes through, e lands on a glooble vote anyway, when he was willing to vote awaclus for voting there before
Awaclus:
The thread that most interested me on a reread is awaclus's interactions with mix and his subsuquent pushing of glooble. Awaclus's first post of the game is a (presumably RVS) vote for mix. (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=19733.msg809655#msg809655) He has quite a few posts after this that are pretty much contentless as far as reads or votes go. Then, he revotes (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=19733.msg810003#msg810003) for mix after mix votes him, with pretty flimsy reasoning. His position (http://[url=http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=19733.msg810015#msg810015) is that revealing duel votes is bad and something that scum would want, but at this point almost every player except him has expressed at least a willingness to claim their votes, and awaclus gives no reason to single out mix as particularly scummy
Then, on D2, awaclus pushes glooble. As summed up nicely by debate here, (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=19733.msg810836#msg810836) awaclus has a lot to say about how mix's reads in relation to glooble's scumminess (which he then disclaims (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=19733.msg810839#msg810839) without providing any alternative reasoning). Given that mix was scumreading (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=19733.msg809998#msg809998) awaclus, there's a reasonable scum narrative that awaclus is trying to deflect attention away from that aspect of the NK while pushing a fairly achievable mislynch
e:
A lot of e's posts have a feeling to me of being a sort of performative, “look at me, I'm so unconcerned and towny” vibe. Has a lot of posts that seem to be more about making an effort to appear active than actually pushing any sort of cases. Multiple (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=19733.msg810424#msg810424) DAMAs, (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=19733.msg811100#msg811100) claims to have voted for two duels that included himself. There isn't a strong thread like the awaclus-mix-glooble thing because he never seems particularly concerned about pushing anyone's lynch, only jumping on wagons after they've already been started
At the end of the day, I would happily vote for either of them, which I know is kind of a cop out, but I honestly think we may have hit the jackpot in a scum vs. scum duel
Our IC is on awaclus, so all other things being equal, I'm going to follow him there
vote: awaclus
L-1
My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.
Who are hedgy scum reads?
Robz and efhw
On top of the hedgyness the fact that they are now pushing this narrative that both e and awaclus are scum seems extremely silly.
My biggest concern with lynching awaclus is the fact that I don’t think this is how scum!robz treats scum!awaclus. It looks more like scum!robz reacting to a duel on town!awaclus and town!e
This is not the point in the game where scum!robz busses a partner unless he has to and this isn’t the way he would do it if he did have to.
Sorry, haven't gotten around to responding to anything the last couple days.
EFHW: what am I supposed to say? "Yes, that is a very fair characterization of my play" or "No! Shame on you for mis-characterizing my play!"?
Because I didn't really see a "so what" on either Awaclus or me. Do you think one of us is scum or are you just creating content for the sake of content. Because that's scummy. And can be discussed tomorrow.
Heck, vote: e
My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.
Who are hedgy scum reads?
Robz and efhw
On top of the hedgyness the fact that they are now pushing this narrative that both e and awaclus are scum seems extremely silly.
My biggest concern with lynching awaclus is the fact that I don’t think this is how scum!robz treats scum!awaclus. It looks more like scum!robz reacting to a duel on town!awaclus and town!e
This is not the point in the game where scum!robz busses a partner unless he has to and this isn’t the way he would do it if he did have to.
I don't know that I am "pushing this narrative" that both e and Awaclus are scum. At this point it's a statistical possibility and not something to be automatically discounted, unlikely though it is. This is sloppier analysis than we usually see from you, mcmc!
Um, read it again. I was arguing against their both being scum.
Awaclus will you tell us how you voted in each duel and why?
Awaclus will you tell us how you voted in each duel and why?
I guess I might as well. I voted yes on the joth vs Glooble duel, and that was the only one.
Time Bomb: choose a night. If mafia kills you on that night, the player performing the kill dies.
These duels have been really bad for us. They artificially constrict the scumhunting. A whole bunch of people, meaning most of us who are still alive, have gotten very little scrutiny.Agreed. We wanted to talk about all the people that have been on town mislynches, but yesterday we only talked about 2 of those people. And then misylnched again
These duels have been really bad for us. They artificially constrict the scumhunting. A whole bunch of people, meaning most of us who are still alive, have gotten very little scrutiny.Agreed. We wanted to talk about all the people that have been on town mislynches, but yesterday we only talked about 2 of those people. And then misylnched again
Which os something I'm guilty of doing too
True, but there's also a list of people who've been on nesrly every mislynch. Which does include me, but lots of others tooThese duels have been really bad for us. They artificially constrict the scumhunting. A whole bunch of people, meaning most of us who are still alive, have gotten very little scrutiny.Agreed. We wanted to talk about all the people that have been on town mislynches, but yesterday we only talked about 2 of those people. And then misylnched again
Which os something I'm guilty of doing too
At this point, the list of people who have been on at least one mislynch is every living player
My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.
Who are hedgy scum reads?
Robz and efhw
On top of the hedgyness the fact that they are now pushing this narrative that both e and awaclus are scum seems extremely silly.
My biggest concern with lynching awaclus is the fact that I don’t think this is how scum!robz treats scum!awaclus. It looks more like scum!robz reacting to a duel on town!awaclus and town!e
This is not the point in the game where scum!robz busses a partner unless he has to and this isn’t the way he would do it if he did have to.
What is the point in posting those 2 vote counts?
DAY 4
Vote count at post #1319
e (1): ADK
Not Voting (8): Awaclus, Debate, e, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, mcmc, Robz
Vote count at post #1320
e (1): ADK
ADK (1): Debate
Not Voting (7): Awaclus, e, Eddie, EFHW, Joseph, mcmc, Robz
Vote count at post #1326
e (1): ADK
ADK (1): Debate
Robz (1): Joseph
Not Voting (6): Awaclus, e, Eddie, EFHW, mcmc, Robz
Vote count at post #1342
e (1): ADK
ADK (1): Debate
Not Voting (7): Awaclus, e, Eddie, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Joseph
Vote count at post #1342
e (1): ADK
Not Voting (8): Awaclus, e, Eddie, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Joseph, Debate
Vote count at post #1342
Not Voting (9): Awaclus, e, Eddie, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Joseph, Debate, ADK
Vote count at post #1343
e (1): Awaclus
Not Voting (8): e, Eddie, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Joseph, Debate, ADK
Vote count at post #1344
e (1): Awaclus
Awaclus (1): e
Not Voting (7): Eddie, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Joseph, Debate, ADK
Vote count at post #1384
e (1): Awaclus
Awaclus (2): e, Joseph
Not Voting (6): Eddie, EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Debate, ADK
Vote count at post #1410
e (2): Awaclus, Eddie
Awaclus (2): e, Joseph
Not Voting (5): EFHW, mcmc, Robz, Debate, ADK
Vote count at post #1415
e (2): Awaclus, Eddie
Awaclus (3): e, Joseph, Robz
Not Voting (4): EFHW, mcmc, Debate, ADK
Vote count at post #1425
e (2): Awaclus, Eddie
Awaclus (4): e, Joseph, Robz, ADK
Not Voting (3): EFHW, mcmc, Debate
Vote count at post #1451
e (3): Awaclus, Eddie, EFHW
Awaclus (4): e, Joseph, Robz, ADK
Not Voting (2): mcmc, Debate
Vote count at post #1457
e (3): Awaclus, Eddie, EFHW
Awaclus (5): e, Joseph, Robz, ADK, mcmc
Not Voting (1): Debate
mcmc was mistaken that I was pushing the "both scum" theory, which he acknowledged later.
My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.
Who are hedgy scum reads?
Robz and efhw
On top of the hedgyness the fact that they are now pushing this narrative that both e and awaclus are scum seems extremely silly.
My biggest concern with lynching awaclus is the fact that I don’t think this is how scum!robz treats scum!awaclus. It looks more like scum!robz reacting to a duel on town!awaclus and town!e
This is not the point in the game where scum!robz busses a partner unless he has to and this isn’t the way he would do it if he did have to.
@mcmc - where are you at on robz and efhw now that awaclus has flipped town?
Done, but what were you trying to show with those vote counts? Why post both instead of just the final one?What is the point in posting those 2 vote counts?
Can you post updated votes from Day 4 in the code block?
Done, but what were you trying to show with those vote counts? Why post both instead of just the final one?What is the point in posting those 2 vote counts?
Can you post updated votes from Day 4 in the code block?
It could be, if you have an idea about it. e was voting with you on Robz before hammering pubby. So are you saying he is scummy for where he was? Or for leaving there?Done, but what were you trying to show with those vote counts? Why post both instead of just the final one?What is the point in posting those 2 vote counts?
Can you post updated votes from Day 4 in the code block?
I assumed it was useful to show where someone was before the final vote.
It could be, if you have an idea about it. e was voting with you on Robz before hammering pubby. So are you saying he is scummy for where he was? Or for leaving there?I assumed it was useful to show where someone was before the final vote.Done, but what were you trying to show with those vote counts? Why post both instead of just the final one?What is the point in posting those 2 vote counts?
Can you post updated votes from Day 4 in the code block?
Well, on the positive side our IC is still alive, just about everything else is a negative thoughthe team with the most points wins the game!
I haven't had a chance to digest my notes yet. Are you trying to suggest a scum narrative for e? How does it go?It could be, if you have an idea about it. e was voting with you on Robz before hammering pubby. So are you saying he is scummy for where he was? Or for leaving there?I assumed it was useful to show where someone was before the final vote.Done, but what were you trying to show with those vote counts? Why post both instead of just the final one?What is the point in posting those 2 vote counts?
Can you post updated votes from Day 4 in the code block?
At the moment of the hammer, everyone who was off pubby was town. We still had time before the hammer. It was 6 on pubby and 5 on Robz. e leaves Robz to hammer pubby. It's just one data point, but this analysis of the D1 vote is not unlike what you did in our previous game.
What did you find in your review of ADK?
I haven't had a chance to digest my notes yet. Are you trying to suggest a scum narrative for e? How does it go?
I haven't had a chance to digest my notes yet. Are you trying to suggest a scum narrative for e? How does it go?
1. IMO: all town was on e in the e v awaclus duel.
2. All town was off pubby when e hammers pubby.
That's FOS worthy. But I haven't had time to make all my notes yet.
Well, on the positive side our IC is still alive, just about everything else is a negative thoughThat would be great if our IC had had any good reads this game....
@Joseph - it could be interesting to set a reveal order on the duel to flush out information.Proposed claim order:
Since scum can hammer with any town vote we have to be careful. Not sure if setting a vote order could also be helpful.
There it is. I’m obvi town to ADK, except in the endgame. He’s voted for every town Lynch, two hammers, and even sheep’s Joseph as “cover” on the awaclus vote.
My biggest fear is this is town v town because my scum reads are being really hedgy about their votes.
Who are hedgy scum reads?
Robz and efhw
On top of the hedgyness the fact that they are now pushing this narrative that both e and awaclus are scum seems extremely silly.
My biggest concern with lynching awaclus is the fact that I don’t think this is how scum!robz treats scum!awaclus. It looks more like scum!robz reacting to a duel on town!awaclus and town!e
This is not the point in the game where scum!robz busses a partner unless he has to and this isn’t the way he would do it if he did have to.
@mcmc - where are you at on robz and efhw now that awaclus has flipped town?
There it is. I’m obvi town to ADK, except in the endgame. He’s voted for every town Lynch, two hammers, and even sheep’s Joseph as “cover” on the awaclus vote.
You need to chill a little, it's lylo, of course I'm going to be reconsidering my reads
It’s actually europe flipping town that is more illuminating because he was a huge null read and now figuring out what pairing’s of who can and can’t be scum together is a lot easier to figure out.
I think robz and efhw could easily be partners, they both talked a decent amount without pushing much yesterday and ended up split on what could easily have been a town v town duel.
Super null on debate so I need to do rereading there as well because right now he just doesn’t raise any red flags but isn’t excluded from any partner groups.
I'm at the airport and just realized my ADK notes are at home. I will try to reconstruct them. I am vla thru Sunday, but should be keeping up.
Why are you townie on ADK? (Of course, you could respond my asking why I lean scum on ADK, and then I would have to supply a reason!)
Debate are you excluding anyone who has voted for each other from being potential scum partners or are you only factoring in times where bussing would not be a possibility?
I object to Debate leaving himself out of his permutations analysis. He is in no way IC, and it is misleading to post information that seems comprehensive but which is actually incomplete.
No, this is incorrect. When you say "look at all the possible choices" and they aren't all the possible choices, that is scummy. Including yourself is not damning. Your claimed certainty about your alignment is unfortunately not relevant from my POV. Yes, I question your alignment. I've been giving you space because I feel bad for mislynching you in another game. But everything you have done could just as easily come from scum as from town.I object to Debate leaving himself out of his permutations analysis. He is in no way IC, and it is misleading to post information that seems comprehensive but which is actually incomplete.
I am more certain of my alignment than Joseph's and he is the IC. The "does/doesn't include oneself as a possibility" argument is always a dead end, you are dammed if you do and damned if you don't... it's NIA.
You've played with me probably more than anyone else left in this game, and your coming away from every post I've made in this game questioning my alignment?
Where did you ended up in your reread of AD?. Even if you left your notes at home, your very smart and have a good memory.
So I didn't take extensive notes on this reread but here's my thoughts:
mcmc is a townread, his posts feel like the most genuine scumhunting out of all of them
EFHW and Robz have the most posts that feel like partner interactions
So I didn't take extensive notes on this reread but here's my thoughts:
mcmc is a townread, his posts feel like the most genuine scumhunting out of all of them
EFHW and Robz have the most posts that feel like partner interactions
What about e?
Also, which posts from MCMC feel like “genuine scumhunting”. And which posts from Robz/EFHW see like partner interaction.
So I didn't take extensive notes on this reread but here's my thoughts:
mcmc is a townread, his posts feel like the most genuine scumhunting out of all of them
EFHW and Robz have the most posts that feel like partner interactions
joseph's claim read way more like the conspiracy theory could be true in retrospect but if that's the case I'm pretty sure that we're doomed
I'm ready to vote EFHW or Robz
So I didn't take extensive notes on this reread but here's my thoughts:
mcmc is a townread, his posts feel like the most genuine scumhunting out of all of them
EFHW and Robz have the most posts that feel like partner interactions
joseph's claim read way more like the conspiracy theory could be true in retrospect but if that's the case I'm pretty sure that we're doomed
I'm ready to vote EFHW or Robz
So of the two you think EFHW is more lynch-able or more likely to flip scum?
Or you just don't want to give the appearance of OMGUS
Went back through debates post and looked up some of the references and I really like some of his conclusions.
ADK, do you think debate is town or scum?
If town, which scum pairing that he eliminates in his rationale is a (or the) bad removal. Because he ends with you scum no matter which way you look at it.
The ADK, mcmc, EFHW team looks very intriguing to me at the moment.
Went back through debates post and looked up some of the references and I really like some of his conclusions.
ADK, do you think debate is town or scum?
If town, which scum pairing that he eliminates in his rationale is a (or the) bad removal. Because he ends with you scum no matter which way you look at it.
The ADK, mcmc, EFHW team looks very intriguing to me at the moment.
I'd like to think debate is scum just for my ego's sake but I'm less certain there than on robz/efhw. If he's town then you're much more likely to be scum just by poe
vote: efhw
I also think it’s robz/efhw/(debate/e) I don’t want to reveal which one I think is more likely between debate and e.
Save it for night chat.
Save it for night chat.
If you're town there's not going to be another night.
But you're not town, are you?
I need to stop townreading you like, ever
I had a different model with e, mcmc in 80% of scum teams, so are you all both scum?
efhw I'm guessing
I had a different model with e, mcmc in 80% of scum teams, so are you all both scum?
Yea me, e, and efhw. Powerhouse scum team
I kinda want to throw my mvp tick to joseph lol, we did shoot joth but we weren’t sure we hit the jk or not until joseph outed him. Then we could use our strongman to get him.
e did you really vote for yourself for those duels? I am very interested to hear scum's perspective on the dueling mechanic
efhw I'm guessing
Sorry dude. You and Robz being on opposite sides for so long and I had an early town read on EFHW, I grew wary when she was questioning me, hmm.
e did you really vote for yourself for those duels? I am very interested to hear scum's perspective on the dueling mechanic
Ugh we're endgamed, right?
snip
I had a different model with e, mcmc in 80% of scum teams, so are you all both scum?
All possible teams:
ADK,e,EFHW
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,e,Robz
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
ADK,EFHW,Robz
ADK,MCMC,Robz
e,EFHW,MCMC
e,EFHW,Robz
e,MCMC,Robz
EFHW,MCMC,Robz
Exclusions:
EFHW & Robz (EFHW 240, 510, 1147)
Leaves:
ADK,e,EFHW
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,e,Robz
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
ADK,MCMC,Robz
e,EFHW,MCMC
e,MCMC,Robz
ADK & Robz (ADK 960, 1287 & Robz 1278)
Leaves:
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
e,MCMC,Robz
e,EFHW,MCMC
ADK,e,EFHW
e & robz (e 508, 1040)
Leaves:
ADK,e,MCMC
ADK,EFHW,MCMC
e,EFHW,MCMC
ADK,e,EFHW
I prefer a scramble to pubby. I'm still finishing my read on him but it feels...samey. Of course it's your call.
I think e's towny. Is the entire case of scum!e the fact that he voted? That's weak.
What is his motivation for doing that as town?
99% just went 99.9%
I swear every time someone agrees with me it puts me on edge.
When do you not think e's scummy?
Just because I tunneled him in a game awhile back is no reason to assume it is universal.
Plus I was right, wasn’t I?
So to answer your question: When e is town.
For the two duels we had I feel like town got the two worst PRs on the list.
Double doctor or vig could have really changed the game up rather than neopolitan
snipI had a different model with e, mcmc in 80% of scum teams, so are you all both scum?
Your post removing possible scum pairs was actually really great I thought. Your only mistake: removing the EFHW&e pair because of EFHW's perfect bus vote.
For the two duels we had I feel like town got the two worst PRs on the list.
Double doctor or vig could have really changed the game up rather than neopolitan
If I hadn't hit and outed the JK, yes it was strongFor the two duels we had I feel like town got the two worst PRs on the list.
Double doctor or vig could have really changed the game up rather than neopolitan
Isn't Neapolitan quite strong, if it doesn't happen to hit JK of all people?
For everyone's reference, the four PRs were
Double Doctor (two doctor shots at once, may self-target)
Vig
Neapolitan
Time Bomb (choose n, if mafia kills you on night n, the mafia doing the kill dies)
Good game everyone, and nice design Silver. I have more in-depth thoughts to share but for now I’ll say town lost this game as much as mafia won it. Not to take away from the winners’ accomplishment— a perfect game is a beautiful thing. But man, the duels gave us an opportunity to play lazy and we took it.Yeah, I think that is a design flaw inherent to this duel mechanic.
And I haven't read the scum QT, but I'd give MVP to EFHW
She was my top town read, and I'd have voted ADK if I'd been around because of it
Wow, what a disaster! Nearly every one of my calls was wrong. I sort of townread mcmc and E, and I strongly townread EFHW.
We played terribly, me perhaps most of all. I do think this setup is... pretty stacked against town? Just in that it's nearly a vanilla game. I would recommend making the duel votes public or something, just to give town more information, if this setup was to be played again.
Wow, what a disaster! Nearly every one of my calls was wrong. I sort of townread mcmc and E, and I strongly townread EFHW.
We played terribly, me perhaps most of all. I do think this setup is... pretty stacked against town? Just in that it's nearly a vanilla game. I would recommend making the duel votes public or something, just to give town more information, if this setup was to be played again.
mcmc:
I could see a world where scum!efhw was bussing scum!e yesterday but I purposefully tried not to tip my hand as to which way I was leaning on awaclus/e early so that there was no way efhw knew it was safe to vote e if he is in fact her partner so it’s a risky bus if it was one.
The things I said to you weren't scummy. I would say them as town. Look at it this way, I was towny and I was scum. Being towny isn't proof that you are town and you can't expect to automatically get credit for towniness, even if you thoroughly deserve it.And I haven't read the scum QT, but I'd give MVP to EFHW
She was my top town read, and I'd have voted ADK if I'd been around because of it
I agree with EFHW as mvp, definitely has a strong town read until near the end. It’s a super strong scumteam well played.