Dominion Strategy Forum
Miscellaneous => Forum Games => Mafia Game Threads => Topic started by: LaLight on August 03, 2018, 08:48:04 am
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Welcome to M117: Emotions Mafia
This game will use asher9++ (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=10639.msg353797#msg353797), a setup for 12 players, and is classified as normal. It was designed by ashersky as a semi-open setup.
Players:
1. Robz888
2. Simon Jester
3. Galzria
4. Skumpy
5. DatSwan
6. iguanaiguana
7. SpaceAnemone
8. EFHW
9. gkrieg13
10. Twistedarcher
11. silverspawn
12. Xxraptorslayer96
Tags:
The Rules:
The Golden Rule:
This is a game. Everyone who signs up to play must be considerate of each other, never get personal, and focus on having fun. Once the game starts, having signed up is a commitment: inactivity is just as inconsiderate as rude comments.
The Standard Rules:
1. No communication between players outside of the game thread or shared QTs at any time. This includes passing references, jokes, or cases in other games or threads, whether in context or not.
2. If the game thread is locked, do not post. If you are unsure if something is locked, ask the mod by PM.
3. Direct or verbatim quoting of mod-provided information is strictly forbidden. Paraphrasing is okay.
4. Actions with instructions that do not specify a game state will be resolved in the order they are received.
5. All night actions must be submitted within 24 hours of day ending.
6. Players must post once every 24 hours.
7. Do not edit or delete posts, ever. If you need to clarify or correct something, post again.
8. Invisible text, font size less than 10, and spoiler tags are not allowed.
9. Cryptography is not allowed.
10. The time between a lynch being reached and a flip being provided is called twilight. All players may continue posting during this time, including the lynched player.
11. Dead players may not post in thread or QT, except their Role QT. A lynched player is not "dead" until a flip has been provided.
12. Personal multimedia, such as video or audio recordings, are not allowed in the game thread.
The Voting Rules:
1. Votes should be in this format: Vote: Playername. Unambigiuous nicknames are acceptable, or any string that uniquely identifies a user. Note that the point of voting is, in fact, unambiguity, and attempting to make it unclear to other players (or, of course, mods) which user you are voting for is very ill-advised.
2. Unvotes should be in this format: unvote or Unvote: Playername.
3. Unvotes are not required if changing your vote from one player to another.
4. You may vote: no lynch.
5. Lynches occur when a simple majority (rounded up) of living players is reached. Once reached, a lynch cannot be undone.
6. If a majority lynch is not reached by the Day's deadline, no lynch occurs.
The Rest:
1. Bold, purple 'AA00AA' text is reserved for the mod. Players may not use it.
2. If you have an issue or problem with the game, please PM the Mod. Do not post complaints in the game thread.
3. Mods make mistakes - please point them out gently. If they can be corrected, they will. If irreversible, they will stand as final to be commiserated over after the game.
4. If a mod error disadvantages one faction greatly, the game may be called off.
5. Ask all questions and make all requests directly to the Mod via PM. Questions deemed as "universal" (defined as questions for which the answers should be available to all players) will be requested to be re-posted in the Game Thread and answered there.
6. One prod will be issued after 48 hours without posting in the game thread. Players are subject to replacement or modkill after one prod.
7. All rule violations will be dealt with according to their severity, as determined by the mod.
8. Each player will receive their own QT, regardless of role. Don't quote from it.
9. If the game goes on for 3 days and 3 nights without a lynch or nightkill, town wins.
Deadlines:
1. Days will last seven IRL days.
2. Nights will last two IRL days.
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Setup Information:
This game will use asher9++, a standard normal setup on f.ds. A link to the setup is provided in the second line of the OP.
Flavor Information:
All flavor, including flavor names, will be a representation of human emotions.
All vanilla townies will have the same flavor name (Calm).
All power roles and non-town will have distinct flavor names.
Flavor names will be indicative of alignment.
Non-town players will be provided with safe claim.
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/in
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Let's try an /in.
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/in
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/in
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Setup link is broken!
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Setup link is broken!
Fixed it, thank you!
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/in
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Hmmmmmmmmmmmm
/in
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/in :-)
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/tag
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/in
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/in I guess.
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/in
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/in
Sweet!!!
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/in
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/in
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/in
EDIT: Oh I guess raptor took the last spot already. Well I can replace if needed.
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/tag
Turns out I'm not dead, but don't feel up to playing again
Can I have the speccy though?
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PMs are going out. N0 starts now and ends when all the players will confirm but not earlier than in 24 hours.
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From your early childhood you suffered from the emotion problems. When you were expected to cry, you laughed maniacally. When you were expecting to smile, you started crying your eyes out. Your parents were really concerned about this, but never tried to show you to doctor as in other things you were perfectly fine. Time went and you were mostly calm. Sometimes you felt something, good or bad with no reason, but you always thought that's just how it was. And only when you favorite cat died and you felt kind of funny about it you realized something wrong so you went to see a therapist. He was amused about you. And then he started to ask about your early childhood...
Day 1 starts now!
Vote Count 1.0
Not Voting (12): Robz888, Simon Jester, Galzria, Skumpy, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, SpaceAnemone, EFHW, gkrieg13, Twistedarcher, silverspawn, Xxraptorslayer96
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends Tuesday, August 14th at 7 pm FT. Thread unlocked!
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Hello
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Hello
Hello
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Hello
Hello
Hello.
Man, this flavor got real fast. Hope LaLight's OK.
In other news, would anybody like to have a coalition with me? I don't vote you, you don't vote me, unless there's reasonable confidence that the other's scum?
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Hello
Hello
Hello
Hello
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Hello
Hello
Hello.
Man, this flavor got real fast. Hope LaLight's OK.
In other news, would anybody like to have a coalition with me? I don't vote you, you don't vote me, unless there's reasonable confidence that the other's scum?
Are you town? I'll probably do it for D1 at least.
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Hello
Hello
Hello.
Man, this flavor got real fast. Hope LaLight's OK.
In other news, would anybody like to have a coalition with me? I don't vote you, you don't vote me, unless there's reasonable confidence that the other's scum?
Are you town? I'll probably do it for D1 at least.
'Probably do it for D1 at least' implies you might vote me D1. Which would be a vote without reasonable confidence. I'm looking for a long-term commitment here, Iguanaman!
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Hey all!
Good to meet you Simon and Twisted
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vote: skumpy
That was easy
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Hello everyone!
Vote: Datswan for, uhm, welcoming me..
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In other news, would anybody like to have a coalition with me? I don't vote you, you don't vote me, unless there's reasonable confidence that the other's scum?
...Isn't that how we start the game with.. everyone?
Vote: Skumpy
Wagons!
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Skumpster!!!
You wanna befriends?
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Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.
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vote: skumpy on principle.
First game, simon jester?
I’m about to get on a train from nyc to baltimore, where I am going straight to the airport and boarding a plane about 8 AM forum time. So I’m going to be getting very drunk for the next like 10 hours of travel. AMA, soon!
Will be slightly VLA this week. (In New Orleans.)
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Lalight you get me so well!
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Hello
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Hello
Hello TA we mssed you.
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Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.
Iguana is his partner.
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Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.
Iguana is his partner.
I like how you think.
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Who is third tho
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I am quite drunk
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Skumpster!!!
You wanna befriends?
If it's an offer that extends through an as-yet-to-to-specified number of days, then yes! Otherwise, I might have to just settle for Iguana and D1. Or anybody else who'd like to make a deal.
vote: skumpy on principle.
Sheesh. I guess I still owe you one. I wanna vote you but I won't; consider it an early gift for Wednesday.
Also, hi TA: I've clicked on your profile a few times.
And hi Simon: I'd give you newbie advice, but I know you've done a pretty good job of showing yourself the ropes.
Hi everyone else.
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Who is third tho
Simon obvs
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Who is third tho
Simon obvs
Yes
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Vote: Simon
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hello.
iguana is the only one making sense so far. Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.
I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.
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Skumpster!!!
You wanna befriends?
If it's an offer that extends through an as-yet-to-to-specified number of days, then yes! Otherwise, I might have to just settle for Iguana and D1. Or anybody else who'd like to make a deal.
vote: skumpy on principle.
Sheesh. I guess I still owe you one. I wanna vote you but I won't; consider it an early gift for Wednesday.
Also, hi TA: I've clicked on your profile a few times.
And hi Simon: I'd give you newbie advice, but I know you've done a pretty good job of showing yourself the ropes.
Hi everyone else.
If you want an arbitrary number I would say... Start of Day 3?
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All iguanas are equal. But some iguanas are more equal than others.
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hi datSwan. You are the guy who gives me scum vibes by default in every game because of your avatar. .
I like vote: Simon. Trying to show non-concerndness early by changing their vote quick. Also votes on the guy who could actually get a wagon for a play that's probably really towny (namely skumpy)
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hello.
iguana is the only one making sense so far. Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.
I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.
Why? The only reason Town!SS would be worried about the agreement is if Skumpy is Skum.
PPE1
But you just said you are giving him a pass - so, if Skumpy is Skum then they obv will remove you from radar. Soooo, as Town!SS you giving Skumpster a pass is actually the same as agreeing to his gambit. As Skum, it gives you an out to say that you never agreed to it so people can pile him and then you can jump on.
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What do you feel?
Vote Count 1.1
Skumpy (2): gkrieg13, Simon Jester
Simon Jester (2): Robz888, silverspawn
Not Voting (8): Galzria, Skumpy, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, SpaceAnemone, EFHW, Twistedarcher, Xxraptorslayer96
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends Tuesday, August 14th at 7 pm FT.
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hi datSwan. You are the guy who gives me scum vibes by default in every game because of your avatar. .
I like vote: Simon. Trying to show non-concerndness early by changing their vote quick. Also votes on the guy who could actually get a wagon for a play that's probably really towny (namely skumpy)
Toby will be super pleased to know he could be skum.
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Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.
Iguana is his partner.
I like how you think.
You really shouldn't. could both of you say how serious your comments were?
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hello.
iguana is the only one making sense so far. Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.
I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.
Why? The only reason Town!SS would be worried about the agreement is if Skumpy is Skum.
PPE1
But you just said you are giving him a pass - so, if Skumpy is Skum then they obv will remove you from radar. Soooo, as Town!SS you giving Skumpster a pass is actually the same as agreeing to his gambit. As Skum, it gives you an out to say that you never agreed to it so people can pile him and then you can jump on.
The PPE was supposed to be at the end of the post.
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hello.
iguana is the only one making sense so far. Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.
I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.
Why? The only reason Town!SS would be worried about the agreement is if Skumpy is Skum.
PPE1
But you just said you are giving him a pass - so, if Skumpy is Skum then they obv will remove you from radar. Soooo, as Town!SS you giving Skumpster a pass is actually the same as agreeing to his gambit. As Skum, it gives you an out to say that you never agreed to it so people can pile him and then you can jump on.
you know what, you're right! I didn't think this far.
Ok, skumpy, how about we don't vote for each other until day 3?
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First game, simon jester?
No. Not even here. (Guess the alt-account and win a vote.)
And hi Simon: I'd give you newbie advice, but I know you've done a pretty good job of showing yourself the ropes.
Huh? How do you know that exactly? Should I be paranoid or something.. :o
I like vote: Simon. Trying to show non-concerndness early by changing their vote quick. Also votes on the guy who could actually get a wagon for a play that's probably really towny (namely skumpy)
Nah. I just jumped in with a RVS-vote without reading the thread and then when I did I rather wanted it to be on the guy that clearly seeking attention. That's gotta be rewarded in some way, I thought. I don't know how such a move is towny, it's null at best and the internal wifoming ended in a slight scumvibe for me. It's cheap towncred to be the one to get the game out of RVS early, easily something scum could do.
But, heh, instead my own wagon is starting to form. Ah, well, new guy- wagons are as necessary as ever I assume. Hit me, if you must.
Unvote
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hello.
iguana is the only one making sense so far. Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.
I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.
Why? The only reason Town!SS would be worried about the agreement is if Skumpy is Skum.
PPE1
But you just said you are giving him a pass - so, if Skumpy is Skum then they obv will remove you from radar. Soooo, as Town!SS you giving Skumpster a pass is actually the same as agreeing to his gambit. As Skum, it gives you an out to say that you never agreed to it so people can pile him and then you can jump on.
you know what, you're right! I didn't think this far.
Ok, skumpy, how about we don't vote for each other until day 3?
Uhh...I mean, Swan did raise a good point. And I always distrust those who trust me. But unless Space wants to chime in, then sure: I will not vote you until D3 unless you do something that's really scummy (except you're good enough at this game, so that won't happen) or somebody gets some sort of incriminating result on you N1.
And hi Simon: I'd give you newbie advice, but I know you've done a pretty good job of showing yourself the ropes.
Huh? How do you know that exactly? Should I be paranoid or something.. :o
Of course you should; it's mafia. But if you must know, the 'Who's Online' tab can be interesting occasionally. But apparently I was way off on your newbie status, so that's that then.
Nah. I just jumped in with a RVS-vote without reading the thread and then when I did I rather wanted it to be on the guy that clearly seeking attention. That's gotta be rewarded in some way, I thought. I don't know how such a move is towny, it's null at best and the internal wifoming ended in a slight scumvibe for me. It's cheap towncred to be the one to get the game out of RVS early, easily something scum could do.
WIFOM's too much fun, even as town.
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Good morning all.
Chiming in now! Though not sure I need to comment on the who-agreed-not-to-vote-whom thing. I'm not joining any pacts, but I'm fine having people make them visibly in the thread where other people can read them and judge.
I'm a bit perturbed that the newbie is apparently not a newbie. Is there some back-story I should be aware of? I haven't been very active at all on the forum for the last month or so..
Vote: silver -- nice to see you again :-)
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I'm a bit perturbed that the newbie is apparently not a newbie. Is there some back-story I should be aware of? I haven't been very active at all on the forum for the last month or so..
Not really, no. I guess what Skympy is referring to is that I have (apparently) been showing reading old games and yeah, that's true. I know everything about you and you know nothing 'bout me - that's how I like it.
Other than that, no. My old games here are from years ago. The only thing I can remember is being clueless and useless in a RMM and being yelled at from town!Ashersky because of it. Ugh.
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Likewise :)
And I always distrust those who trust me.
This is like anti-OMGUS. We could call it OMGUDS
I don't think it makes sense, though. If you're town, people are supposed to think you are town.
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Who is third tho
Simon obvs
Yes
Simon must be the one we agreed to bus.
Vote: Simon
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I'm a bit perturbed that the newbie is apparently not a newbie. Is there some back-story I should be aware of? I haven't been very active at all on the forum for the last month or so..
Not really, no. I guess what Skympy is referring to is that I have (apparently) been showing reading old games and yeah, that's true. I know everything about you and you know nothing 'bout me - that's how I like it.
Other than that, no. My old games here are from years ago. The only thing I can remember is being clueless and useless in a RMM and being yelled at from town!Ashersky because of it. Ugh.
Ah, yes, I remember that well.
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I think this pact idea, while innovative, could have a skewing effect on the game. I'm interested to see how it plays out. It reduces the lynch pool for everyone because people in pacts will be harder to lynch. But this being mafia, pacts aren't exactly meaningful. Do these pacts extend to not posting scumreads or not calling one's partner out on something scummy?
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All iguanas are equal. But some iguanas are more equal than others.
Lol. Let's go ahead and get this game over with then so I can sig this.
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Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.
Iguana is his partner.
I like how you think.
You really shouldn't. could both of you say how serious your comments were?
4%?
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We are pretty against using alt accounts for mafia here... let me think about this.
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I think this no voting until D3 nonsense is going too far for the first Day-te. D1 passes are enshrined in f.ds mafia tradition; anything more is just silly.
But now I wish WW was here so he could vote me for overpunctuating.
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We are pretty against using alt accounts for mafia here... let me think about this.
Oh, wasn't aware. Hockeysemlan was my old one and I'm using a new on f.ds as a whole - the change has nothing to do with me wanting to play again and if I had my old account one left I would have used that. So there. A whopping meta of 3 games in 2015 should be available for the curious.
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I think this no voting until D3 nonsense is going too far for the first Day-te. D1 passes are enshrined in f.ds mafia tradition; anything more is just silly.
But now I wish WW was here so he could vote me for overpunctuating.
worried about the lynch pool getting too small?
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First game, simon jester?
No. Not even here. (Guess the alt-account and win a vote.)
Vote: Simon
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Likewise :)
And I always distrust those who trust me.
This is like anti-OMGUS. We could call it OMGUDS
I don't think it makes sense, though. If you're town, people are supposed to think you are town.
Scum has to townread somebody correctly if they want credibility, and I feel I'm usually a good candidate.
I think this pact idea, while innovative, could have a skewing effect on the game. I'm interested to see how it plays out. It reduces the lynch pool for everyone because people in pacts will be harder to lynch. But this being mafia, pacts aren't exactly meaningful. Do these pacts extend to not posting scumreads or not calling one's partner out on something scummy?
Allow me to remind you: I asked to make a pact with somebody, and was immediately voted 3 times (as I expected). Even assuming ss sticks to his word, it's not exactly hard to build a wagon against me. For the second part: I don't know! I'll play it by ear, I guess, but I think I'm OK with anything short of voting.
Also: I finally understand your name. That took me way too long to figure out.
I think this no voting until D3 nonsense is going too far for the first Day-te. D1 passes are enshrined in f.ds mafia tradition; anything more is just silly.
You fail every experiment you never try.
Raptor: Are we on the same side this time, or are we doomed to fight yet again?
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First game, simon jester?
No. Not even here. (Guess the alt-account and win a vote.)
Vote: Simon
See above, please unvote?
Or at least flesh out the reasoning a little..
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Simon seems so scummy to me that I'm beginning to think it's not an alignment think but a tone thing.
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Would be interesting to know your alt. Hydrad comes to mind. Or maybe... hm... Ghacob?
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Simon seems so scummy to me that I'm beginning to think it's not an alignment think but a tone thing.
Agree with this
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Would be interesting to know your alt. Hydrad comes to mind. Or maybe... hm... Ghacob?
It's Hockeysemlan. And "alt-account" is maybe the wrong term since it's no longer active. Sorry about all that, I think absolutely my scummyness is a tone thing, when talking almost only about oneself that tends to happen. Ugh, my bad, even I could see it happening. Will shut up about me now for a while..
To try to speak about something else: I'm a bit surprised that you and others accepted a Skumpy-pact that easily, what good is going to come out of that exactly? Not enough for you to be scummy, but it's still.. odd to me.
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Would be interesting to know your alt. Hydrad comes to mind. Or maybe... hm... Ghacob?
It's Hockeysemlan. And "alt-account" is maybe the wrong term since it's no longer active. Sorry about all that, I think absolutely my scummyness is a tone thing, when talking almost only about oneself that tends to happen. Ugh, my bad, even I could see it happening. Will shut up about me now for a while..
To try to speak about something else: I'm a bit surprised that you and others accepted a Skumpy-pact that easily, what good is going to come out of that exactly? Not enough for you to be scummy, but it's still.. odd to me.
Dude seems like town for D1 so of course you don't want to vote town. Giving the full D1 pass is only ceding a read that prolly won't change today and grants us all as an advantage something to talk about.
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Dude seems like town for D1 so of course you don't want to vote town. Giving the full D1 pas is only ceding a read that prolly won't change today and grants us all as an advantage something to talk about.
Sure, but silver took it a bit further then you:
Ok, skumpy, how about we don't vote for each other until day 3?
Which, barring jokes, is just a strange thing to say. I must say that I would have expect a rapid Skumpy- wagon more than people agreeing with him this way. Something is scummy about this but I can't figure out what..
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If you can't find a scum motivation for doing something, don't call it scummy. Everyone is different.
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If you can't find a scum motivation for doing something, don't call it scummy. Everyone is different.
Uh, yeah, sure thing.. and reading closer I realise silver already clarified it's a D1-pass and not much more so mesh.
Very well then, any other news? Anyone not posted yet?
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Technically, no.
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What do you feel?
Vote Count 1.1
Skumpy (2): gkrieg13, Simon Jester
Simon Jester (2): Robz888, silverspawn
Not Voting (8): Galzria, Skumpy, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, SpaceAnemone, EFHW, Twistedarcher, Xxraptorslayer96
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends Tuesday, August 14th at 7 pm FT.
LaLight, isn't this an extra day?
Not that I'm complaining if you give it to us...
If you can't find a scum motivation for doing something, don't call it scummy. Everyone is different.
Well, the scum motivation would be that it's one less vote he might get. The town motivation would be that it's one less vote he might get.
If you can't find a scum motivation for doing something, don't call it scummy. Everyone is different.
Uh, yeah, sure thing.. and reading closer I realise silver already clarified it's a D1-pass and not much more so mesh.
Pretty sure it's a D2 pass as well :D (if we're alive for it, of course)
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That was a pretty scummy post of mine, wasn't it? Ah well. I'll be back in a few hours, when I can do some more thinking.
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We are pretty against using alt accounts for mafia here... let me think about this.
Oh, wasn't aware. Hockeysemlan was my old one and I'm using a new on f.ds as a whole - the change has nothing to do with me wanting to play again and if I had my old account one left I would have used that. So there. A whopping meta of 3 games in 2015 should be available for the curious.
Hey hockey!
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Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.
Iguana is his partner.
I like how you think.
You really shouldn't. could both of you say how serious your comments were?
Who are you to tell me how I should think?
They were more serious than Gkrieg's, not serious enough to warrant a vote.
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Good morning all.
Chiming in now! Though not sure I need to comment on the who-agreed-not-to-vote-whom thing. I'm not joining any pacts, but I'm fine having people make them visibly in the thread where other people can read them and judge.
I'm a bit perturbed that the newbie is apparently not a newbie. Is there some back-story I should be aware of? I haven't been very active at all on the forum for the last month or so..
Vote: silver -- nice to see you again :-)
I like this vote. Is it nothing more than friendly RVS, or would you defend it if pressed?
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That was a pretty scummy post of mine, wasn't it? Ah well. I'll be back in a few hours, when I can do some more thinking.
Self!Aware / moderately censoring Skumpy is scum.
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Datswan is town.
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Sorry people, will have more time for this tomorrow
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I’m here and caught up, but don’t have anything concrete to really add at the moment. Definitely won’t do a pact to not vote for anyone without more information.
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Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.
Iguana is his partner.
I like how you think.
You really shouldn't. could both of you say how serious your comments were?
Who are you to tell me how I should think?
"Should" is a macro. It doesn't really map onto anything real. In this case it unpacks into something like "if you actually think that, this seems pretty wrong to me". Not sure it's scummy, though.
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LaLight, isn't this an extra day?
Soory, it was already 7th at my place. Will be fixed in the next vote count.
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What do you feel?
Vote Count 1.2
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
Simon Jester (4): Robz888, silverspawn, iguanaiguana, Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (1): SpaceAnemone
Not Voting (6): Galzria, Skumpy, DatSwan, EFHW, Twistedarcher, Simon Jester
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT.
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That was a pretty scummy post of mine, wasn't it? Ah well. I'll be back in a few hours, when I can do some more thinking.
Self!Aware / moderately censoring Skumpy is scum.
I've done plenty of both of those as both alignments.
Like, here's the thing: I could also see Simon as scum, maybe. But when you talk, you make evidence against yourself, it's a lot easier to slip by without saying much. So then again, I might need to defer that vote to another day.
I've got another vote in mind, probably a bad one, I'll sit on it for a little while longer. I'll let some more conversation come out in the meantime.
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Vote: silver -- nice to see you again :-)
I like this vote. Is it nothing more than friendly RVS, or would you defend it if pressed?
I made it as pure RVS: I'm on holiday visiting my folks just now, so I'm not feeling too "into" the game yet. I've got an afternoon of UK trains to look forward to today (virtually no phone signal, often horribly delayed...), then I'll be back home late tonight and able to pay more attention from tomorrow evening.
I'm now aware that silver is one of the more interactive players, and that some of the pact stuff is a bit weird, but I haven't decided if it means a scumread or not yet.
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I've got another vote in mind, probably a bad one, I'll sit on it for a little while longer. I'll let some more conversation come out in the meantime.
Oh, please spill the beans here, if you may. Everyone seems a little hesitant and we could have good use of something more to talk about me thinks.
It's a towny feeling over all here, but to put my vote somewhere for today I like vote: EFHW the best. A tad lurky so far, no?
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I've been reading and not posting, so technically I have been lurking. Nothing has struck me as alignment indicative. But maybe if I nit-pick a bit something will turn up. Will get back to you soon.
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Datswan is town.
I did want to hear more about this.
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By my count, Skumpy has pacts with iguana (D1), silver (D1 and D2) and DatSwan (D1 and D2). All for real?
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I think so
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I only have one with ss. If others don’t want to vote for me, fine by me.
I see you Simon, but can’t at the moment. I’ll get back to this shortly.
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let's vote: EFHW
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let's vote: EFHW
Is it something specific I said or just the general lurkiness?
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I've been reading and not posting, so technically I have been lurking. Nothing has struck me as alignment indicative. But maybe if I nit-pick a bit something will turn up. Will get back to you soon.
These are my exact thoughts as well, and yet you posting them gives me a slight slight scummy vibe..
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I can see this EFHW voting stuff. But I myself will make my first bad vote with a Vote: Galz.
While I asked for the coalition because I actually wanted to try having one, it then occurred to me that it's generating 11 different responses from people who didn't know it was coming. Some are going to ignore it completely (Raptor), some are going to distrust it (gkrieg), some are going to think it's townie (Iguana), some are intrigued (EFHW), some are even going to accept (ss).
11 responses, 3 are scum. Which ones? I don't know! What I do [think I] know is that it's these reactions to weird plays that Galz loves to analyze (more his plays than others' but whatever). The fact that he doesn't seem to care at all gives me pause. Granted, as scum, he probably would try to fake reads. So maybe it is, in fact, a really bad vote. Oh well. It's been like 40 hours, I've got time.
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let's vote: EFHW
Is it something specific I said or just the general lurkiness?
It's nothing specific, unfortunately.
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Vote: raptor is where its at for me
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I could vote Robz too because of how he tanked his own meta and that makes him a hard read now.
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Raptor: Are we on the same side this time, or are we doomed to fight yet again?
We didn’t fight last time!... but then you were scum and I had a bad read. So forgive me if I have some trust issues Skumpy.
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I've been reading and not posting, so technically I have been lurking. Nothing has struck me as alignment indicative. But maybe if I nit-pick a bit something will turn up. Will get back to you soon.
These are my exact thoughts as well, and yet you posting them gives me a slight slight scummy vibe..
Hm, that doesn't seem fair, somehow...
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My nit picking didn't yield anything, btw
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Raptor: Are we on the same side this time, or are we doomed to fight yet again?
We didn’t fight last time!... but then you were scum and I had a bad read. So forgive me if I have some trust issues Skumpy.
Opponents=fighting. You were by far the scariest townie that game, since you had my partner figured out instantly, and you were starting to connect the dots by the end. Now I need to know if we can work together for the first time, and so far, I haven't been given a reason to think one way or the other.
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I've been reading and not posting, so technically I have been lurking. Nothing has struck me as alignment indicative. But maybe if I nit-pick a bit something will turn up. Will get back to you soon.
These are my exact thoughts as well, and yet you posting them gives me a slight slight scummy vibe..
Hm, that doesn't seem fair, somehow...
I know! And yet that's the impression I got.
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Raptor: Are we on the same side this time, or are we doomed to fight yet again?
We didn’t fight last time!... but then you were scum and I had a bad read. So forgive me if I have some trust issues Skumpy.
Opponents=fighting. You were by far the scariest townie that game, since you had my partner figured out instantly, and you were starting to connect the dots by the end. Now I need to know if we can work together for the first time, and so far, I haven't been given a reason to think one way or the other.
Now I feel like you’re just trying to sweeten me up. But sure I’m willing to work with you to catch scum!
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Raptor: Are we on the same side this time, or are we doomed to fight yet again?
We didn’t fight last time!... but then you were scum and I had a bad read. So forgive me if I have some trust issues Skumpy.
Opponents=fighting. You were by far the scariest townie that game, since you had my partner figured out instantly, and you were starting to connect the dots by the end. Now I need to know if we can work together for the first time, and so far, I haven't been given a reason to think one way or the other.
Now I feel like you’re just trying to sweeten me up. But sure I’m willing to work with you to catch scum!
I dont really know you. Can you share your approach to the game / scum hunting?
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I actually think skumpy is scum here.
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I actually think skumpy is scum here.
I feel like it's still too early to say, but you seem really sure.
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I actually think skumpy is scum here.
I feel like it's still too early to say, but you seem really sure.
As sure as you can be with a couple days
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I actually think skumpy is scum here.
I feel like it's still too early to say, but you seem really sure.
As sure as you can be with a couple days
I've typed out like 10 different responses, and none of them feel right. So I'll just keep it short and sweet: no
Meantime, I'm bored. If you guys generally don't have any controversial opinions or reads to share, then give us something interesting, like a personal anecdote or a joke or something.
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Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.
Iguana is his partner.
so.... 8%?
I like how you think.
You really shouldn't. could both of you say how serious your comments were?
Who are you to tell me how I should think?
They were more serious than Gkrieg's, not serious enough to warrant a vote.
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I actually think skumpy is scum here.
I feel like it's still too early to say, but you seem really sure.
As sure as you can be with a couple days
I've typed out like 10 different responses, and none of them feel right. So I'll just keep it short and sweet: no
Meantime, I'm bored. If you guys generally don't have any controversial opinions or reads to share, then give us something interesting, like a personal anecdote or a joke or something.
While I was driving today I passed a sign which read "This Way to the Blindness Center"
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I actually think skumpy is scum here.
Real question - Why? I have like a tinfoil hat D1 theory, but it is currently being outweighed by the silliness of the approach.
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What do you feel?
Vote Count 1.3
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
Simon Jester (2): Robz888, Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (1): SpaceAnemone
EFHW (2): Simon Jester, silverspawn
Galzria (1): Skumpy
Xxraptorslayer96 (1): iguanaiguana
Not Voting (4): Galzria, DatSwan, EFHW, Twistedarcher,
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT.
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I don't see Skumpy as scum here, I really don't. It would be too easy just let this game keep sleeping and Skumpy is trying to do, well, at least something with it. I don't want to scumread active players, not this early anyway. Lynch the lurkers!
Vote: Xxraptor
Could you please elaborate your vote for me a little more now? Is the alt-account-thing still the reason or is there anything more to it?
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C'mon y'all. If this is our Thursday activity level then the weekend is going to be all crickets. People arr leaving each others questions unanswered, that's no way to play
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C'mon y'all. If this is our Thursday activity level then the weekend is going to be all crickets. People arr leaving each others questions unanswered, that's no way to play
And I don't particularly want to be prodding.
/in
EDIT: Oh I guess raptor took the last spot already. Well I can replace if needed.
Also, Iguana's feeling pretty townie to me.
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I don't see Skumpy as scum here, I really don't. It would be too easy just let this game keep sleeping and Skumpy is trying to do, well, at least something with it. I don't want to scumread active players, not this early anyway. Lynch the lurkers!
Vote: Xxraptor
Could you please elaborate your vote for me a little more now? Is the alt-account-thing still the reason or is there anything more to it?
I tend to get classified as a lurker D1 every game I play. So not a huge surprise. As for you Vote, yes still because of the alt-acct. but it wasn’t a super serious vote.
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I dont really know you. Can you share your approach to the game / scum hunting?
When playing, I try to look for abnormalities in play style compared to other games. As well as look for people slipping up. Both of which are hard to read/catch D1.
I would like to extend this question to everyone, to help get the ball rolling .
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Raptor already has like, 10x his normal D1 content. I'm not sure if that's scummy because he's trying harder to avoid the natural suspicion he receives for lurking D1, or if it's a result of his genuine excitement to play another game, which would result in a more prominent Raptor regardless of alignment.
It could very much be the latter, and thus I am generally disinclined to consider a vote on him at this time.
Simon's OMGUS vote on Raptor is scummy though.
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Datswan is town.
I did want to hear more about this.
Nothing to hear. I feel I have a pretty good read on Datswan, and that read points towards him being town.
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Gkrieg also giving off townie vibes right now.
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I don't see Skumpy as scum here, I really don't. It would be too easy just let this game keep sleeping and Skumpy is trying to do, well, at least something with it. I don't want to scumread active players, not this early anyway. Lynch the lurkers!
Vote: Xxraptor
Could you please elaborate your vote for me a little more now? Is the alt-account-thing still the reason or is there anything more to it?
I’m surprised to see such a read on skumpy. I don’t think he’s scum but I also think he’s town. Do you think he’s town, or do you just not want to lynch him because he’s active? You’re saying both but they’re very different reasons to not want to lynch him.
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Galzria is giving me a slighty scum feel. Iguana reads townyish to me. Simon is scummier, And I don’t really have reads on any else. No real town reads thus far.
bote: galzria to have my vote somewhere
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I don't see Skumpy as scum here, I really don't. It would be too easy just let this game keep sleeping and Skumpy is trying to do, well, at least something with it. I don't want to scumread active players, not this early anyway. Lynch the lurkers!
Vote: Xxraptor
Could you please elaborate your vote for me a little more now? Is the alt-account-thing still the reason or is there anything more to it?
I’m surprised to see such a read on skumpy. I don’t think he’s scum but I also think he’s town. Do you think he’s town, or do you just not want to lynch him because he’s active? You’re saying both but they’re very different reasons to not want to lynch him.
I get a townie feeling out of it after all, yes. It's perhaps not much, but frankly he is the towniest player around as of now. I know that players are busy, but the silence is damning nevertheless and both iguana and skumpy gets more townpoints there of trying to get people to talk. It's of course a read that can change rapidly, but it is still there.
Simon's OMGUS vote on Raptor is scummy though.
It's honestly a LALL- vote more than OMGUS, I haven't read any game with raptor to my knowledge so I wouldn't know if he is usually quiet. His vote on me was semi-RVS so I don't really mind.
I dont really know you. Can you share your approach to the game / scum hunting?
When playing, I try to look for abnormalities in play style compared to other games. As well as look for people slipping up. Both of which are hard to read/catch D1.
I would like to extend this question to everyone, to help get the ball rolling .
I don't have any developed "system" for scumhunting yet, I agree that it is difficult but talking in general helps a lot naturally. Just feeling out tones and approaches to the game is good enough D1 I guess.
Is there anything about the setup that is worth mentioning by the way?
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Maybe the team is Galzria/DatSwan/Raptor, lol
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Okay, I'm caught up! Greetings from a beautiful hotel bar in New Orleans.
Simon Jester using an alt account isn't really scummy, per say, it's just sort of frowned upon / against the rules. But I accept his explanation that he didn't know, and sounds like he was more just switching to a new account. And he told us what the other one was, so I think that's all fine. Not really something to vote over, so I'll throw a vote at Raptor for having done so. Vote: Raptor
I think these pacts are pretty dumb, or would be dumb if they were actually obeyed, but I presume they won't be when push comes to shove, so pretty much it's just a distraction. Skumpy is sort of screaming "I'm scum!" so loudly that he's probably not.
What did you mean by this, iguana?
I could vote Robz too because of how he tanked his own meta and that makes him a hard read now.
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vote: raptor
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vote: raptor
Curious about this. What did you think of Galzria's post re: raptor making an effort to participate more?
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Same to Robz.
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Galzria is giving me a slighty scum feel. Iguana reads townyish to me. Simon is scummier, And I don’t really have reads on any else. No real town reads thus far.
bote: galzria to have my vote somewhere
How is Simon scummier?
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I know you've done a pretty good job of showing yourself the ropes.
I reread things on the train yesterday, but couldn't post because if lack of signal. Did anyone else wonder whether Skumpy could have scumslipped by having let on that he'd had pre-game communication with Simon in the scum QT? If so, what made you not want to post about it?
I know he said he was using the "who's online" thing, but that's a pretty odd/unusual admission to make, and it seems weird to say exactly this, rather than "I see you're well-versed in our back-catalogue" or something that also acknowledged the source of the "showing the ropes" stuff at the same time.
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Sorry guys, had a late night getting back home from inlaws last night (curse you California wildfires). Will try to get to this tommorrow.
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vote: raptor
Curious about this. What did you think of Galzria's post re: raptor making an effort to participate more?
I mean, Galz is probably right about that, I just thinking jumping on SJ for the alt-account thing is something scum might do. It's a weak vote for Raptor, though.
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vote: raptor
Curious about this. What did you think of Galzria's post re: raptor making an effort to participate more?
Nothing. I don't remember having played with raptor before. But someone needs to have pressure, and I have no scumreads yet.
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Maybe the team is Galzria/DatSwan/Raptor, lol
That would be fun :D. For those of you that do not know. Gaz, Swan and I work/see each other on a regular basis.
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I know you've done a pretty good job of showing yourself the ropes.
Did anyone else wonder whether Skumpy could have scumslipped by having let on that he'd had pre-game communication with Simon in the scum QT?
Only scum cares about scumslips and this one is quite farfetched too. Here, take a scumpoint!
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Reading in full now, responding if my names shows up.
I think these pacts are pretty dumb, or would be dumb if they were actually obeyed, but I presume they won't be when push comes to shove, so pretty much it's just a distraction. Skumpy is sort of screaming "I'm scum!" so loudly that he's probably not.
Pacts are dumb? How else do you suggest we bring salvation back?
And I always act super Skummy, nothing new this game.
I know you've done a pretty good job of showing yourself the ropes.
Did anyone else wonder whether Skumpy could have scumslipped by having let on that he'd had pre-game communication with Simon in the scum QT?
Only scum cares about scumslips and this one is quite farfetched too. Here, take a scumpoint!
Simon said it better than I could. I mean: really, Space? This kind of reminds me of that time where I accused you of mixing up me and other newbies intentionally. Y'know, that time when I was scum?
So Raptor's the focal point. Fun stuff. For those who don't know, this is the complete history of said dinosaur:
M105: His first game (mine too!). Said not much, made weakish cases, eventually got caught in a lie as scum D4.
M110: More lurking. A few posts, a few opinions. Town distrusted him, and vigged him as town early on.
NM11: Played a really loud game. Made interesting reads, was active, was cross-examining people, was challenging suspect plays, was considering everybody as potential scum, and had by far and away the best reads of anybody else, especially D1. Died right when he had figured out the entire scum team.
M116: One I have looked at in retrospect. He went back to lurking, saying little. Lynched D1. Scum, right? No, town again.
M117: A little less lurky than usual. But for the most part, same old, except the one game.
He's probably in, like, the upper half of scummy players this game. But Raptor was so uncharacteristic the one time that I think I agree with Galz and want to give him more time (yes, I am aware where my vote currently sits). Definitely not the worst lynch possible, but this is such a easy early lynch. Scum flip wouldn't shock me, but it doesn't feel like the right way to go right now.
Oh yeah, Simon's feeling pretty townie too. Probably wrong on something I've said so far, but I'll find that out later. Insert typical "I hate D1" post.
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I know you've done a pretty good job of showing yourself the ropes.
Did anyone else wonder whether Skumpy could have scumslipped by having let on that he'd had pre-game communication with Simon in the scum QT?
Only scum cares about scumslips and this one is quite farfetched too. Here, take a scumpoint!
I don't agree that only scum care about scumslips. But I do agree that this probably isn't one.
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I super duper strongly disagree that only scum cares about scumslips. I think town cares more about scumslips, generally.
This doesn't seem like one to me either, but I wouldn't disount it completely.
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What do you feel?
Vote Count 1.4
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
Simon Jester (1): Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (1): SpaceAnemone
Galzria (1): Skumpy
Xxraptorslayer96 (4): iguanaiguana, Simon Jester, Robz888, silverspawn
Not Voting (4): Galzria, DatSwan, EFHW, Twistedarcher
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT.
Note: this
bote: galzria to have my vote somewhere
doesn't count as a vote.
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This doesn't seem like one to me either, but I wouldn't disount it completely.
When people make posts here, it's very natural to be suspicious. Are they being honest, or are they lying scum trying to deceive?
So I will step outside of the game for a second to assure and reassure you that there was no slip, there was no pregame discussion, there was 100% honesty in me having absolutely no life and nothing better to do in my many hours of procrastination than to click the 'Who's Online' tab, and wonder who is this Simon guy who also seems to spend a lot of time here, and in old Mafia games at that. So stop speculating about my haughty diction, and knock it off! Go talk about something else that you find weird and potentially scummy, maybe even the extreme self-awareness of this very post. I don't know!
OK, aggressive rant's over. Happy Friday all!
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I think the more pertinent question is if scum!Space or town!Space is more likely to try and call out that particular non-slip?
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I super duper strongly disagree that only scum cares about scumslips. I think town cares more about scumslips, generally.
This doesn't seem like one to me either, but I wouldn't disount it completely.
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I super duper strongly disagree that only scum cares about scumslips. I think town cares more about scumslips, generally.
This doesn't seem like one to me either, but I wouldn't disount it completely.
Hm. From what I have seen "scumslips" are almost always coming from town and to do such a slip is more of a towntell than anything else.. Scum likes to push scumslips though, as an easy way to fabricate cases that really isn't there.
In this case, I mean... So Skumpy and I would have this conversation in our QT and then for some reason decide to replicate it in thread including my surprised reaction? I mean for Skumpy and me the accusation is quite hilarious, but for everyone else it should just be plain ridiculous. Of course it's not a scumslip and I think Space very well knows this.
In fact, first let's cast my first actually scumsuspecting vote in vote: SpaceA
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/tag
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@Simon
So is your case sorta that Space scumslipped because only scum posts about a scum slip?
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Gkrieg also giving off townie vibes right now.
I can't see any possible basis for this read other than he and you agreeing on a couple small points
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I dont really know you. Can you share your approach to the game / scum hunting?
When playing, I try to look for abnormalities in play style compared to other games. As well as look for people slipping up. Both of which are hard to read/catch D1.
I would like to extend this question to everyone, to help get the ball rolling .
I've been trying to ask more questions about motivation so that I can get a better read on things I don't understand wihout handing my reads to the scum team for them to do as they please
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@Simon
So is your case sorta that Space scumslipped because only scum posts about a scum slip?
Yes.
But more like that they made an effort being active and then made a move that I can't help but read as truly scummy. To me it's unlikely town!SA would ever think of Skumpy and mine interaction as a real scum vs scum-thing. One of us can certainly be scum still, but us sharing a QT and then doing that? No, that's silly.
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That's a stupid vote. My instinct is to vote you in return but I don't think it actually makes you scummy.
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That's a stupid vote.
...
no u.
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That's a stupid vote.
...
no u.
This.
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Gkrieg also giving off townie vibes right now.
I can't see any possible basis for this read other than he and you agreeing on a couple small points
So you're saying that you don't find Gkrueg townie?
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@Simon
So is your case sorta that Space scumslipped because only scum posts about a scum slip?
Yes.
But more like that they made an effort being active and then made a move that I can't help but read as truly scummy. To me it's unlikely town!SA would ever think of Skumpy and mine interaction as a real scum vs scum-thing. One of us can certainly be scum still, but us sharing a QT and then doing that? No, that's silly.
Have you played much with Space? It seems like you are making at least a partially meta based argument.
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Gkrieg also giving off townie vibes right now.
I can't see any possible basis for this read other than he and you agreeing on a couple small points
So you're saying that you don't find Gkrueg townie?
I don't find him townie, no. I just don't see the content that could be the basis for a townread on him. I mean he called me scum or scummy or something for interacting with Skumpy, which I most certainly am not. What other content does he have?
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This doesn't seem like one to me either, but I wouldn't disount it completely.
When people make posts here, it's very natural to be suspicious. Are they being honest, or are they lying scum trying to deceive?
So I will step outside of the game for a second to assure and reassure you that there was no slip, there was no pregame discussion, there was 100% honesty in me having absolutely no life and nothing better to do in my many hours of procrastination than to click the 'Who's Online' tab, and wonder who is this Simon guy who also seems to spend a lot of time here, and in old Mafia games at that. So stop speculating about my haughty diction, and knock it off! Go talk about something else that you find weird and potentially scummy, maybe even the extreme self-awareness of this very post. I don't know!
OK, aggressive rant's over. Happy Friday all!
Holy crap, this post is self conscious.
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Ok, let's see where we are
iguana and skumpy are towny. Everyone else is null.
Not too great. We still have some time but not too much.
Maybe I could go for galz. I don't like the total dismissiveness of the scumslip. What if it actually was a scumslip?
Actually, that possibility sort of negates the towniness of skumpy and puts him closer to null. But I'm not voting for him anyway so it doesn't really matter.
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ok vote: galz. Who wants to follow??
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What did you mean by this, iguana?
I could vote Robz too because of how he tanked his own meta and that makes him a hard read now.
I guess I am thinking that you had some recent scum games that you played as though you didn't care so as to emulate your 'lackluster town' meta.
If you do that again, then you are both a hard read and not as much of a town asset as you could be. Therefore I consider you a priori of anything a decent lynch.
Sorry.
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ok vote: galz. Who wants to follow??
Not me.
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@Simon
So is your case sorta that Space scumslipped because only scum posts about a scum slip?
Yes.
But more like that they made an effort being active and then made a move that I can't help but read as truly scummy. To me it's unlikely town!SA would ever think of Skumpy and mine interaction as a real scum vs scum-thing. One of us can certainly be scum still, but us sharing a QT and then doing that? No, that's silly.
Have you played much with Space? It seems like you are making at least a partially meta based argument.
No, not at all, but have read my few games though. I know they are experienced and good and I would have made the argument against everyone at that level. Don't think SA is especially inclined to use scumslips- argument as scum, that was general.
PPE
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I actually think skumpy is scum here.
Real question - Why? I have like a tinfoil hat D1 theory, but it is currently being outweighed by the silliness of the approach.
Did gkrieg answer this and where is DatSwan?
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Gkrieg also giving off townie vibes right now.
I can't see any possible basis for this read other than he and you agreeing on a couple small points
OMGUS here.
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Ok, let's see where we are
iguana and skumpy are towny. Everyone else is null.
Not too great. We still have some time but not too much.
Maybe I could go for galz. I don't like the total dismissiveness of the scumslip. What if it actually was a scumslip?
Actually, that possibility sort of negates the towniness of skumpy and puts him closer to null. But I'm not voting for him anyway so it doesn't really matter.
Lol, why are iguana and skumpy townie?
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Space seems townie.
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I actually think skumpy is scum here.
Real question - Why? I have like a tinfoil hat D1 theory, but it is currently being outweighed by the silliness of the approach.
Did gkrieg answer this and where is DatSwan?
More than anything it is gut-based. He feels like he is trying to conform to his meta for some reason.
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Galzria is giving me a slighty scum feel. Iguana reads townyish to me. Simon is scummier, And I don’t really have reads on any else. No real town reads thus far.
bote: galzria to have my vote somewhere
How is Simon scummier?
He seems very self aware and focusing on how people read him was my impression. But I don’t know if that’s a scum tell or a personality tell, a lot of people act this way very naturally. You (efhw) have given that impression as well.
I’m a bit surprised that I’ve contributed nothing and I’ve gotten zero suspicion, really no one has even talked about me at all this game. Maybe I’m getting a pass because it’s my first game in awhile, but I’d have expected people to be more suspicious of me.
I’m going to re-read raptor since he’s got 4 votes on him right now. I’m having trouble forming opinions on anyone since I feel like there’s been lots of noise and little substance thus far — every post I read and then throw aside because I get nothing from it on initial read, but it’s time for me to dig in more and make an actual opinion. I’m hoping doing a targeted read vs going through the thread will come up with something.
I said galz seemed scummy (vote: galzria to get it on record) but I don’t remember why other than an impression off of one post.
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I actually think skumpy is scum here.
Real question - Why? I have like a tinfoil hat D1 theory, but it is currently being outweighed by the silliness of the approach.
Did gkrieg answer this and where is DatSwan?
More than anything it is gut-based. He feels like he is trying to conform to his meta for some reason.
The first time I played as scum, my entire game was based around trying to conform to my meta because anything outside of that would be extremely noticeable and would get me lynched. Galz saw through that instantly.
Now, I'm at a point where I can just play how I feel, and don't need to worry about specifically copying certain attributes of my townplay. If you must know, the coalition play was something I was intending to do before seeing my alignment. If I end up as scum again and discover that my scumplay is actually quite transparent, maybe things will change. Right now, I'm doing what feels natural. And as town this game, that's especially easy.
Scum, I hope you've been very entertained by my last few posts, because I'm having a blast writing them.
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I actually think skumpy is scum here.
Real question - Why? I have like a tinfoil hat D1 theory, but it is currently being outweighed by the silliness of the approach.
Did gkrieg answer this and where is DatSwan?
More than anything it is gut-based. He feels like he is trying to conform to his meta for some reason.
The first time I played as scum, my entire game was based around trying to conform to my meta because anything outside of that would be extremely noticeable and would get me lynched. Galz saw through that instantly.
Now, I'm at a point where I can just play how I feel, and don't need to worry about specifically copying certain attributes of my townplay. If you must know, the coalition play was something I was intending to do before seeing my alignment. If I end up as scum again and discover that my scumplay is actually quite transparent, maybe things will change. Right now, I'm doing what feels natural. And as town this game, that's especially easy.
Scum, I hope you've been very entertained by my last few posts, because I'm having a blast writing them.
Even this post seems premeditated to me. Like you are trying to have this attitude, but that it is fake. (sorry if you are actually town and this is actually you, this is just my opinion on the tone as it relates to the game).
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I actually think skumpy is scum here.
Real question - Why? I have like a tinfoil hat D1 theory, but it is currently being outweighed by the silliness of the approach.
Did gkrieg answer this and where is DatSwan?
More than anything it is gut-based. He feels like he is trying to conform to his meta for some reason.
The first time I played as scum, my entire game was based around trying to conform to my meta because anything outside of that would be extremely noticeable and would get me lynched. Galz saw through that instantly.
Now, I'm at a point where I can just play how I feel, and don't need to worry about specifically copying certain attributes of my townplay. If you must know, the coalition play was something I was intending to do before seeing my alignment. If I end up as scum again and discover that my scumplay is actually quite transparent, maybe things will change. Right now, I'm doing what feels natural. And as town this game, that's especially easy.
Scum, I hope you've been very entertained by my last few posts, because I'm having a blast writing them.
Even this post seems premeditated to me. Like you are trying to have this attitude, but that it is fake. (sorry if you are actually town and this is actually you, this is just my opinion on the tone as it relates to the game).
It's not. I have no other premeditated schemes or evil genius plays up my sleeve at the moment. I might admit to being scum and start a game with a self-vote, but that's the only one. Perhaps I'll come up with some more before next time, who knows? Meantime, I'll accept your apology in advance.
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You know what, it's time to shut about me. I've done way too good a job of taking attention off scum.
Let's ramble about the Galz wagon, which I am indeed currently on.
He has given me nothing to think he's town. My reasons for voting, however, like all D1 reasons, are weak at best. And probably wrong. Additionally, I'm honestly not sure if it's a good vote, going strictly by expected value. I know from experience he's a good town player who can figure the lies out. It would be a shame to lose that D1. Additionally, it would be a shame to throw suspicion on the townies who cause a lynch and save scum from having to use a nightkill on him. But if he's scum, then that's a huge asset, not only by getting rid of a good player, but by putting scum in an uncomfortable position of whether or not they want to bus this.
Which is more important to do in this game, I'm too new to say. So I guess I'm going to side with inertia and wait and see what happens.
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Ok, let's see where we are
iguana and skumpy are towny. Everyone else is null.
Not too great. We still have some time but not too much.
Maybe I could go for galz. I don't like the total dismissiveness of the scumslip. What if it actually was a scumslip?
Actually, that possibility sort of negates the towniness of skumpy and puts him closer to null. But I'm not voting for him anyway so it doesn't really matter.
Lol, why are iguana and skumpy townie?
iguana was the only one who made sense on the skumpy deal. All of his posts feel natural and on point
skumpy is no longer towny since they just admitted to have planed the deal thing before the game started. Now slightly scummy for the scumslip.
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vote: Space I expected a more thorough response to the day from them.
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vote: Space I expected a more thorough response to the day from them.
Feeling blind, what response are you referring to?
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vote: Space I expected a more thorough response to the day from them.
Feeling blind, what response are you referring to?
I mean they were busy and then didn't have access, so there was a lot to catch up on. I would have expected them, once they were able to post, to do a more thorough job responding to the day instead of just the one scumslip post.
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vote: Space I expected a more thorough response to the day from them.
Feeling blind, what response are you referring to?
I mean they were busy and then didn't have access, so there was a lot to catch up on. I would have expected them, once they were able to post, to do a more thorough job responding to the day instead of just the one scumslip post.
Eh, this seems SUPER weak to me. People are busy and don't catch up all at once.
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vote: Space I expected a more thorough response to the day from them.
Feeling blind, what response are you referring to?
I mean they were busy and then didn't have access, so there was a lot to catch up on. I would have expected them, once they were able to post, to do a more thorough job responding to the day instead of just the one scumslip post.
Eh, this seems SUPER weak to me. People are busy and don't catch up all at once.
It's not much. But it's different from their usual style, I think.
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Gkrieg also giving off townie vibes right now.
I can't see any possible basis for this read other than he and you agreeing on a couple small points
OMGUS here.
You're absolutely right, in a way. But the implication that the OMGUS is scummy or unreasonable is wrong. I am not emotionally involved in the read.
That being said, you antagonizing me and scumreading the things I do and making short standoffish comments is making me scum read you because I can't remember you ever acting this way toward me before.
I actually don't believe that town!gkrieg would be scumreading me for what I have said/done, so it is giving me pause and making me feel null to scum on you.
I also know that last game you were disappointed to roll scum so that would make your lack of engagement here scummy.
I need to think about whether any of this is worth a vote
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Note: had not seen some of gkrieg's recent posts when I posted above. Will reconsider.
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Gkrieg also giving off townie vibes right now.
I can't see any possible basis for this read other than he and you agreeing on a couple small points
OMGUS here.
You're absolutely right, in a way. But the implication that the OMGUS is scummy or unreasonable is wrong. I am not emotionally involved in the read.
That being said, you antagonizing me and scumreading the things I do and making short standoffish comments is making me scum read you because I can't remember you ever acting this way toward me before.
I actually don't believe that town!gkrieg would be scumreading me for what I have said/done, so it is giving me pause and making me feel null to scum on you.
I also know that last game you were disappointed to roll scum so that would make your lack of engagement here scummy.
I need to think about whether any of this is worth a vote
I was disappointed to roll scum, but I don't have lack of engagement here. I'm pretty engaged.
Why don't you think that town!gkrieg would be scumreading you? For the record, I don't actually think you are all that scummy. The OMGUS was a little scummy (more of a joke from my part), and the first comment that you were skumpy's partner was (to me) obviously a joke.
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Okay, cancel literally everything I said about gkrieg. I was wrong.
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Galzria is a crappy lynch.
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Prod dodging until this evening. I had work stuff come up the last few days. I need to do a catchup and then I’ll get some thoughts down.
It’s not raptor - stop being lazy.
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I’m a bit surprised that I’ve contributed nothing and I’ve gotten zero suspicion, really no one has even talked about me at all this game. Maybe I’m getting a pass because it’s my first game in awhile, but I’d have expected people to be more suspicious of me.
Happy to oblige. Vote: TA
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Galzria is giving me a slighty scum feel. Iguana reads townyish to me. Simon is scummier, And I don’t really have reads on any else. No real town reads thus far.
bote: galzria to have my vote somewhere
How is Simon scummier?
He seems very self aware and focusing on how people read him was my impression. But I don’t know if that’s a scum tell or a personality tell, a lot of people act this way very naturally. You (efhw) have given that impression as well.
I’m a bit surprised that I’ve contributed nothing and I’ve gotten zero suspicion, really no one has even talked about me at all this game. Maybe I’m getting a pass because it’s my first game in awhile, but I’d have expected people to be more suspicious of me.
I’m going to re-read raptor since he’s got 4 votes on him right now. I’m having trouble forming opinions on anyone since I feel like there’s been lots of noise and little substance thus far — every post I read and then throw aside because I get nothing from it on initial read, but it’s time for me to dig in more and make an actual opinion. I’m hoping doing a targeted read vs going through the thread will come up with something.
I said galz seemed scummy (vote: galzria to get it on record) but I don’t remember why other than an impression off of one post.
I don't like your Galz vote, but I could vote EFHW I think.
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I’m a bit surprised that I’ve contributed nothing and I’ve gotten zero suspicion, really no one has even talked about me at all this game. Maybe I’m getting a pass because it’s my first game in awhile, but I’d have expected people to be more suspicious of me.
Happy to oblige. Vote: TA
what's scummy about that post?
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Realized I will not be around for D1 end. VLA tomorrow afternoon- till Tuesday afternoon sometime. I will have zero service during this time.
I don’t really have an opinion on the whole scum slip fiasco. No real reads yet. I kinda want to vote Skumpy but I think that’s just because it’s Skumpy. If nothing major happens in the next 20 hours I’ll just place my vote with whoever has the most at the time, to help get a lynch off. But for now Unvote
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ok iguana, so why is galz not a good lynch?
Who is better?
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What do you feel?
Vote Count 1.5
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): SpaceAnemone
Galzria (3): Skumpy, silverspawn, Twistedarcher
Xxraptorslayer96 (1): iguanaiguana
SpaceAnemone (2): Simon Jester, EFHW
Twistedarcher (1): Robz888
Not Voting (3): Galzria, DatSwan, Xxraptorslayer96
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT.
Note: I will be VLA till Monday morning.
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Note: had not seen some of gkrieg's recent posts when I posted above. Will reconsider.
Wheat changed your mind?
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Note: had not seen some of gkrieg's recent posts when I posted above. Will reconsider.
Wheat changed your mind?
I made a mistake and read through page 7, thinking I had read everything. What I saw that you had already posted on page 8 of the thread before I criticized you changed my mind about you. If you hadn't have posted it yet, I might have thought you were just trying to pander to me, but that wasn't the case because you did it before I bothered you about it. So actually I have a sorta townread on you at least for right now.
My bigger problem is a current lack of strong scumreads.
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ok iguana, so why is galz not a good lynch?
Who is better?
Galz is one of those people whose alignment often resolves itself. He's like a really good D3 lynch, but not a great D1 lynch.
I guess I like lynching EFHW > Space > Robz right now? D1 is always hard these days because it's not like I would take pleasure in eliminating any of these people from the game but someone has to be scum. I don't much like the Simon or Raptor lynches anymore because of the responses to their wagons. But I could review that more.
I also think you have not proven yourself town very much, you have just proven yourself to be mostly my thought-ally, which is not something I can trust unfortunately.
Vote: EFHW
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ok. vote: EFHW is as good as any.
I can't remember any game in which she was lynched early. Let's see what some day1 pressure does.
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Still VLA, will have more time tomorrow.
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vote: Space I expected a more thorough response to the day from them.
Because I'm such a stellar D1 player usually?
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I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
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vote: Space I expected a more thorough response to the day from them.
Because I'm such a stellar D1 player usually?
Because you tend to be more thorough. So far you've only made a single farfetched scumslip suggestion.
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I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Except not, because I'm town!
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I'm okay with this wagon. vote: EFHW
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I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Except not, because I'm town!
Didnt you research whether saying 'I'm town' comes more fromtown or scum and found it gad more to do with the player than their alignment?
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vote: Silver.
I'm at work for the next 6 hour, but I'll try to find time later tonight to put together my reasons.
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I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Except not, because I'm town!
Didnt you research whether saying 'I'm town' comes more fromtown or scum and found it gad more to do with the player than their alignment?
Sounds like a Space thing to do. Did EFHW do so?
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I tried to find where I originally read the statement but didn't find it.
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EFHW wagon. Eh. Probably the lynch if Raptor shows up. Still feel impartial about it, though 4 consecutive votes concerns me.
Meanwhile:
1) Iguana's posts
2) My pact with ss
is forcing me to do a Vote: TA at this present moment.
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@Skumpy What do my posts have to do with your voting TA?
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@Skumpy What do my posts have to do with your voting TA?
I enjoy saying cryptic remarks, and explaining later.
Here's where I'm at right now.
I find Iguana very townie at this point. I haven't played with him much before, but he's active, and that counts for something. More than something. And furthermore, I like his posts, and I like the way he's playing. There's a lot he has going for him.
Now there's 2 possibilities.
1. I'm way, way wrong, and Iguana is in fact scum. I don't believe it now. But if it's true, this game will not go very smoothly.
2. I'm right, and Iguana is town. Iguana has posted so much at this point that people surely have to be townreading the lizard, right? No! Because by my count, only 3 have. And when you're scum, you want to be posting correct townreads D1 to gain credibility, and preferably on the most townie people. If Iguana is town, 3 other people here know this. I have to think that one is going to take notice of his talkative play and give him town status, or at least townie. Which doesn't leave many possibilities.
Both of those things together, it's seems to me highly likely there's a scum in {Iguana, ss, TA, Skumpy}. There's already an 86% chance of that, but whatever. And of that group, there's one I can't vote for, there's one I won't vote for, and there's one I'd be happy to vote for but would rather stick around longer because I pity it. So therefore, TA it is.
So that's me. Wrong? Possibly. Logical? I'd like to think so.
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Huh, that's an interesting post, Skumpy.
Vote: silverspawn
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Huh, that's an interesting post, Skumpy.
Vote: silverspawn
That works too. Even though I feel a little better about my vote, regardless of pact status, it would narrow down the options in my mind.
To be clear, this is not something I can vote for in good faith, even if the hammer is required from me. If you happen to find this extremely aggravating, I gave you all ample opportunity. :-\
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3 votes SS, 3 votes EFHW? Correct me if I’m wrong.
Vote: EFHW
With skumpy not voting SS it maybe hard to get lunch off, or they are both scum and playing us. I also wasn’t huge on how EFHW responded to the wagon. Good luck fellow scum hunters
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Vote: EFHW is probably still better than silver. I want to hear Galz's thing though
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I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Except not, because I'm town!
Didnt you research whether saying 'I'm town' comes more fromtown or scum and found it gad more to do with the player than their alignment?
Yes, that was me. But I AM town, so I said it.
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The scummy thing is my lurking earlier. Townwise, I no longer lurk and there is no scum narrative for me. I actually think Space is a good choice. Their contributions have been minimal. The scumslip thing looks scummier now that that's the only thing they have done.
I would consider TA on the grounds of self-consciousness, imitating the person voting before him and my own OMGUS. Would vote silver out of self-preservation, but am pretty null on him.
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I'm on phone so multi-quoting is hard. This post by TA echoes silver's a few earlier. Weak, I know. I'd rather vote Space.
I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
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I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Sigh
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I tried to find where I originally read the statement but didn't find it.
Maybe in a qt?
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I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Except not, because I'm town!
Didnt you research whether saying 'I'm town' comes more fromtown or scum and found it gad more to do with the player than their alignment?
Yes, that was me. But I AM town, so I said it.
I've seen your scum play amdI remember it being calm, collected and full of remarkably towny statements. Am I wrong?
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So I have been absent, that's mb, work has been crazy. Here is where I am at. I am so damn tired right now I cannot bring myself to do a read. But I have time when I wake up and I will respond accordingly. Please allow me the day, I may literally pass out at this key board if I try here.
Skum
EFHW
Simon
Twisted
II
SS
Null
Space
GK
Robz
Skumpy
Raptor
Galz
Chum
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Lol your chum list is almost all just your IRL chums, how seriously are we expected to take that?
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Lol your chum list is almost all just your IRL chums, how seriously are we expected to take that?
Don’t care
Also i don’t know skimpy irl
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I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Except not, because I'm town!
Didnt you research whether saying 'I'm town' comes more fromtown or scum and found it gad more to do with the player than their alignment?
Yes, that was me. But I AM town, so I said it.
I've seen your scum play amdI remember it being calm, collected and full of remarkably towny statements. Am I wrong?
Alas, you are right.
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Can someone that finds Raptor explain to me why they think they are skum. It’s a lazy question I’ll go back and call you out if forced.
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I mean he isn't a lynch candidate anymore. where's your evidence that he is town?
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I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Except not, because I'm town!
Didnt you research whether saying 'I'm town' comes more fromtown or scum and found it gad more to do with the player than their alignment?
Yes, that was me. But I AM town, so I said it.
I've seen your scum play amdI remember it being calm, collected and full of remarkably towny statements. Am I wrong?
Alas, you are right.
So on what basis should anyone not want your lynch then?
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@DatSwan, how do you reconcile that two of your top scumreads, me and TA, started a wagon on your top scumread, EFHW?
If either of us were scum with EFHW, what's the motivation there?
Also, I believe you have the opportinity to put your top scum read to L-1.
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@DatSwan, how do you reconcile that two of your top scumreads, me and TA, started a wagon on your top scumread, EFHW?
If either of us were scum with EFHW, what's the motivation there?
Also, I believe you have the opportinity to put your top scum read to L-1.
... bussing for credit or something else as elementary as that?
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@DatSwan, how do you reconcile that two of your top scumreads, me and TA, started a wagon on your top scumread, EFHW?
If either of us were scum with EFHW, what's the motivation there?
Also, I believe you have the opportinity to put your top scum read to L-1.
... bussing for credit or something else as elementary as that?
No offense, but you sound to me like you are getting your reads from a random number generator and your scum narratives from a magic 8 ball.....
Why would randomly switching to a scum partner out of nowhere be a good move when we are just a weekend away from the deadline?
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@DatSwan, how do you reconcile that two of your top scumreads, me and TA, started a wagon on your top scumread, EFHW?
If either of us were scum with EFHW, what's the motivation there?
Also, I believe you have the opportinity to put your top scum read to L-1.
... bussing for credit or something else as elementary as that?
No offense, but you sound to me like you are getting your reads from a random number generator and your scum narratives from a magic 8 ball.....
Why would randomly switching to a scum partner out of nowhere be a good move when we are just a weekend away from the deadline?
Because it is day 1 and i openly admit to not being able to have substantial reads day one and it is just guess work.
Why are you pretending people should be sonsure on day 1?
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I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Except not, because I'm town!
Didnt you research whether saying 'I'm town' comes more fromtown or scum and found it gad more to do with the player than their alignment?
Yes, that was me. But I AM town, so I said it.
I've seen your scum play amdI remember it being calm, collected and full of remarkably towny statements. Am I wrong?
Alas, you are right.
So on what basis should anyone not want your lynch then?
So you'll policy lynch me for being hard to read? You made a similar argument about Robz earlier, with the difference that his new meta makes him participate less.
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I mean he isn't a lynch candidate anymore. where's your evidence that he is town?
not to be rude... but I asked first. I'll even give you my reasons - but I expect yours in return.
XXR is town to me Day 1 because he will either slip up or get lyched for being less than active as the game continues. To lynch him D1 here seems dumb on general principal unless there is a hard skum read on them. So I am looking for a hard skum read from someone. Without that, they are essentially removed from my D1 pool.
*I am also aware of the Hippocratic nature of this post as they have probably contributed more than I in this game. It is more based on generalization*
Also, since we are on the topic II - what is your reads list prior to the end of D1?
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@DatSwan, how do you reconcile that two of your top scumreads, me and TA, started a wagon on your top scumread, EFHW?
If either of us were scum with EFHW, what's the motivation there?
Also, I believe you have the opportinity to put your top scum read to L-1.
... bussing for credit or something else as elementary as that?
No offense, but you sound to me like you are getting your reads from a random number generator and your scum narratives from a magic 8 ball.....
Why would randomly switching to a scum partner out of nowhere be a good move when we are just a weekend away from the deadline?
The mere fact that you would suggest such a thing is ridiculous is somewhat incriminating. You are a very experienced player. I, as should everyone, leave pretty much everything on the table for you. Take it as a compliment.
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Vote: EFHW is probably still better than silver. I want to hear Galz's thing though
No wall needed. In concise terms, why is EFHW better than SS from your POV?
Also - Galz, who is your top SR right now?
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@Skumpy What do my posts have to do with your voting TA?
I enjoy saying cryptic remarks, and explaining later.
Here's where I'm at right now.
I find Iguana very townie at this point. I haven't played with him much before, but he's active, and that counts for something. More than something. And furthermore, I like his posts, and I like the way he's playing. There's a lot he has going for him.
Now there's 2 possibilities.
1. I'm way, way wrong, and Iguana is in fact scum. I don't believe it now. But if it's true, this game will not go very smoothly.
2. I'm right, and Iguana is town. Iguana has posted so much at this point that people surely have to be townreading the lizard, right? No! Because by my count, only 3 have. And when you're scum, you want to be posting correct townreads D1 to gain credibility, and preferably on the most townie people. If Iguana is town, 3 other people here know this. I have to think that one is going to take notice of his talkative play and give him town status, or at least townie. Which doesn't leave many possibilities.
Both of those things together, it's seems to me highly likely there's a scum in {Iguana, ss, TA, Skumpy}. There's already an 86% chance of that, but whatever. And of that group, there's one I can't vote for, there's one I won't vote for, and there's one I'd be happy to vote for but would rather stick around longer because I pity it. So therefore, TA it is.
So that's me. Wrong? Possibly. Logical? I'd like to think so.
No. The sentence
And when you're scum, you want to be posting correct townreads D1 to gain credibility,
is just false insofar as it relates to me. White knighting is such an overrated scum trait that it gets you in far more trouble than it ever does good as scum, which is why I wouldn't do it. I've talked about this particular point before, even (you were probably there, iguana, don't you remember that?). It is not a thing you would catch scum!me with.
It is a sort of a legit point if applied to newer scum players. Maybe.
But even then, I mean, I was the first one who said iguana was towny. How does this even make him a towny player? Other people challenged me on the townread. Doubling down there as I did is exactly the kind of thing I would by trying my hardest to avoid as scum, because whiteknighting. How would I even know that skumpy would find him towny aswell?
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Also unvote I don't like the EFHW wagon. It has basically no justification and picked up too quickly.
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The people who jumped on it are where I would look for scum now. Ironically, that's iguana. But then he changed. The others are raptor and simon.
vote: simon
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@Skumpy What do my posts have to do with your voting TA?
I enjoy saying cryptic remarks, and explaining later.
Here's where I'm at right now.
I find Iguana very townie at this point. I haven't played with him much before, but he's active, and that counts for something. More than something. And furthermore, I like his posts, and I like the way he's playing. There's a lot he has going for him.
Now there's 2 possibilities.
1. I'm way, way wrong, and Iguana is in fact scum. I don't believe it now. But if it's true, this game will not go very smoothly.
2. I'm right, and Iguana is town. Iguana has posted so much at this point that people surely have to be townreading the lizard, right? No! Because by my count, only 3 have. And when you're scum, you want to be posting correct townreads D1 to gain credibility, and preferably on the most townie people. If Iguana is town, 3 other people here know this. I have to think that one is going to take notice of his talkative play and give him town status, or at least townie. Which doesn't leave many possibilities.
Both of those things together, it's seems to me highly likely there's a scum in {Iguana, ss, TA, Skumpy}. There's already an 86% chance of that, but whatever. And of that group, there's one I can't vote for, there's one I won't vote for, and there's one I'd be happy to vote for but would rather stick around longer because I pity it. So therefore, TA it is.
So that's me. Wrong? Possibly. Logical? I'd like to think so.
No. The sentence
And when you're scum, you want to be posting correct townreads D1 to gain credibility,
is just false insofar as it relates to me. White knighting is such an overrated scum trait that it gets you in far more trouble than it ever does good as scum, which is why I wouldn't do it. I've talked about this particular point before, even (you were probably there, iguana, don't you remember that?). It is not a thing you would catch scum!me with.
It is a sort of a legit point if applied to newer scum players. Maybe.
But even then, I mean, I was the first one who said iguana was towny. How does this even make him a towny player? Other people challenged me on the townread. Doubling down there as I did is exactly the kind of thing I would by trying my hardest to avoid as scum, because whiteknighting. How would I even know that skumpy would find him towny aswell?
Not sure if 'white knighting' means just townreading or guaranteeing as town. Because I'm only talking about the former, I don't care about 'doubling down'. The only 3 I listed, which included myself, were the ones who would said something as simple as 'maybe townie-ish'. Nothing more than that required, and nothing more than that was found.
Going back to white knighitng; I don't understand. You are expected to at least throw your hat into the ring D1 and give a name of somebody you find townie that you are still allowed to change. I believe everybody has said at least 1 person by now, without reading back. Scum either puts the townread on a scum or a town. Not all scum are going to townread each other. So a town is being townread, and if it's not somebody who they find likely to be a common townread (someone I believe should be Iguana), then who? Who do you, as scum!ss, like to townread on D1? And if Iguana isn't town, you will notice I included him in the list. But since I do currently believe him to be town, that's not where my vote is going.
And you know what? Assume everything I said makes no sense, and is not relevant whatsoever, and your points are completely right, even though I don't fully understand. You were the one who once said to me:
Reversed stupidity is not intelligence. If a psychopath says the sky is blue that doesn't make the sky green. If <A> gives a nonsensical reason why <B> is scum, that doesn't make him town.
Nothing you've said is exactly a ringing endorsement for TA. And:
The people who jumped on it are where I would look for scum now. Ironically, that's iguana. But then he changed. The others are raptor and simon.
is untrue because TA was also in that group.
For the record, I don't have an opinion on the moment of EFHW's alignment, nor on the alignments of the people who jumped on the wagon regardless of her faction. Tomorrow is another day.
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Not sure if 'white knighting' means just townreading or guaranteeing as town. Because I'm only talking about the former, I don't care about 'doubling down'.
Strong townreading. I was talking about that. I was also mostly addressing ii. If you're just talking about stating a townread, sure, every scum will state townnreads on towns. But then that's not an argument anyway. I took you as saying that I was scummy because I focused on defending ii in particular, who is a common townread.
And you know what? Assume everything I said makes no sense, and is not relevant whatsoever, and your points are completely right, even though I don't fully understand. You were the one who once said to me [...]:
Right. I'm not claiming that the flawed-ness of your argument makes me town. I'm claiming there's no positive evidence against me expressed so far.
The people who jumped on it are where I would look for scum now. Ironically, that's iguana. But then he changed. The others are raptor and simon.
is untrue because TA was also in that group.
I didn't see that. I don't oppose a TA lynch, either. But he's a vet, so all things equal, I'd rather lynch Simon.
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The people who jumped on it are where I would look for scum now. Ironically, that's iguana. But then he changed. The others are raptor and simon.
vote: simon
Everyday I'm tunneling..
However, I agree that the wagon probably have scum on itself. TA is still there: vote: TA
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@DatSwan, how do you reconcile that two of your top scumreads, me and TA, started a wagon on your top scumread, EFHW?
If either of us were scum with EFHW, what's the motivation there?
Also, I believe you have the opportinity to put your top scum read to L-1.
... bussing for credit or something else as elementary as that?
No offense, but you sound to me like you are getting your reads from a random number generator and your scum narratives from a magic 8 ball.....
Why would randomly switching to a scum partner out of nowhere be a good move when we are just a weekend away from the deadline?
Because it is day 1 and i openly admit to not being able to have substantial reads day one and it is just guess work.
Why are you pretending people should be sonsure on day 1?
I wasn't suggesting that you should be so sure. But there is some information to go off of and it seemed like your reads were very random, as if you weren't considering the framework of who was voting for who very much when you assembled them but going off of pure gut feel about each individual in a vacuum.
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I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Except not, because I'm town!
Didnt you research whether saying 'I'm town' comes more fromtown or scum and found it gad more to do with the player than their alignment?
Yes, that was me. But I AM town, so I said it.
I've seen your scum play amdI remember it being calm, collected and full of remarkably towny statements. Am I wrong?
Alas, you are right.
So on what basis should anyone not want your lynch then?
So you'll policy lynch me for being hard to read? You made a similar argument about Robz earlier, with the difference that his new meta makes him participate less.
This isn't a policy lynch. This is a tunnel on a weak scum read, because I have nothing better to go off of right now. It bothers me that you are not responding with the same cavalier attitude that you have responded with in your last town game where you got D1 suspicion. I realize that you aren't a restless spirit here, but still... It was an earlier calmness in your play that tipped me off to a potential scum read on you. Your response hasn't been satisfying.
Look, I'm probably wrong. I've played enough games to know that. That's what sucks about mafia.
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I mean he isn't a lynch candidate anymore. where's your evidence that he is town?
not to be rude... but I asked first. I'll even give you my reasons - but I expect yours in return.
XXR is town to me Day 1 because he will either slip up or get lyched for being less than active as the game continues. To lynch him D1 here seems dumb on general principal unless there is a hard skum read on them. So I am looking for a hard skum read from someone. Without that, they are essentially removed from my D1 pool.
*I am also aware of the Hippocratic nature of this post as they have probably contributed more than I in this game. It is more based on generalization*
Also, since we are on the topic II - what is your reads list prior to the end of D1?
My current read on raptor is null, maybe a little towny because he had an easy wagon on him at one point and usually that isn't scum D1. But still could be scum because it was only a 4 vote wagon.
I don't want to hand my full reads list to the scum team.
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The people who jumped on it are where I would look for scum now. Ironically, that's iguana. But then he changed. The others are raptor and simon.
vote: simon
I believe I started, rather than jumped on, this wagon.
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@DatSwan - You are wasting your time at this point asking me questions, trying to determine my alignment. My play advice to you is to accept that you don't want to lynch me today and find your ideal target for a lynch, because the deadline is soon. Then, we can talk about that.
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The people who jumped on it are where I would look for scum now. Ironically, that's iguana. But then he changed. The others are raptor and simon.
vote: simon
I believe I started, rather than jumped on, this wagon.
That is true. I retract the piece of suspicion.
What do you think about the case on me? Still standing behind it? What's wrong with what I said?
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I dunno, I want to hear another round from everyone else. I am easily highest poster now, I've shared enough.
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Because I'm such a stellar D1 player usually?
Because you tend to be more thorough. So far you've only made a single farfetched scumslip suggestion.
It was all that my nitpicking could find. You claimed that yours came up empty, so is it that surprising that I didn't find anything better to comment on?
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Since my post yesterday, I've done a full person-wise re-read of everyone (all posts up till mine yesterday afternoon, anyway), and I'm still low on scumreads.
I still quite like my Skumpy-Simon axis, even if there is quite a strong chance that the "scumslip" is nothing.
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Since my post yesterday, I've done a full person-wise re-read of everyone (all posts up till mine yesterday afternoon, anyway), and I'm still low on scumreads.
I still quite like my Skumpy-Simon axis, even if there is quite a strong chance that the "scumslip" is nothing.
It is nothing. My scumread stance.
My lynchpool for D1 will be SA, TA, EFHW and I guess raptor if that would come around. Silver would be too much Omgus, I still think he is town after all.
Would be nice to hear some more from Robz if possible, still busy?
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And now I have my rolling vote tracker up and running!
Peak wagon was EFHW at #220, with 5 votes, though she's down to three now. I don't really feel inclined to vote her just yet, because she's made a bunch of decent observations, aside from scumreading me.
Iguana's very townie. Other people I don't fancy lynching D1 are gkrieg, Galz and silver, though that's all part-townread, part-meta.
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I kind of want to feel good about voting TA, because he seems to be a lynch even my marginal scumreads can get behind, but really, he seems too easy an "out" to be likely scum.
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Meh, I'm going to go with Vote: Simon for now, because leaving my vote on a person I actually don't want to lynch is silly. Feel free to accuse me of omgus.
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Meh, I'm going to go with Vote: Simon for now, because leaving my vote on a person I actually don't want to lynch is silly. Feel free to accuse me of omgus.
OMGUS. Also townread on Space
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@DatSwan - You are wasting your time at this point asking me questions, trying to determine my alignment. My play advice to you is to accept that you don't want to lynch me today and find your ideal target for a lynch, because the deadline is soon. Then, we can talk about that.
The odd thing is that he has already decided you are town - I think he asked for your reads under the assumption that you would die tonight
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What do you feel?
Vote Count 1.6
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
SpaceAnemone (1): EFHW
Twistedarcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (2): Twistedarcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
Simon Jester (2): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone
Not Voting (1): DatSwan
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT.
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This isn't a policy lynch. This is a tunnel on a weak scum read, because I have nothing better to go off of right now. It bothers me that you are not responding with the same cavalier attitude that you have responded with in your last town game where you got D1 suspicion. I realize that you aren't a restless spirit here, but still... It was an earlier calmness in your play that tipped me off to a potential scum read on you. Your response hasn't been satisfying.
Look, I'm probably wrong. I've played enough games to know that. That's what sucks about mafia.
In the last game I wanted to die. This game I do not. Can't comment on calmness. Yeah, agree with you on that last point.
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Getting a weak scumread on silver. Seems a mite on the defensive side.
Is TA vla? I'm not sure how to take his "why aren't you guys suspecting me" thing.
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Vote: silver given the closeness of deadline.
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What do you feel?
Vote Count 1.6
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (2):, Galzria, iguanaiguana
SpaceAnemone (1): EFHW
Twistedarcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (2): Twistedarcher, Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (2): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone
Not Voting (1): DatSwan
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT.
Lalight, I think Iguana is voting EFHW right now
At this point, day's approaching the end, and as always, it's totally scattered. Iguana is the only person that has done an adequate job of conveying townliness. My suspicion of DatSwan has risen and I'm also wary of Raptor because he's due eventually for a breakout scum game that nobody sees coming. Also mostly unsure of 8 other people. There's a lot of "I have no ideas" posts by everybody, which are reasonable but not necessarily town, and definitely not super helpful. This post included.
I'll be back later on today, through it's already probably too late to get a wagon going on someone that doesn't already have one.
gkrieg: Move your vote, I'm not getting lynched today. Try again tomorrow.
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Ok.
can't lynch: skumpy
won't lynch: iguana, space, EFHW
kinda want lynch: simon
won't protest: everyone else
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Vote: silver given the closeness of deadline.
Why not TA or simon? They're both much more likely to be scum.
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@DatSwan - You are wasting your time at this point asking me questions, trying to determine my alignment. My play advice to you is to accept that you don't want to lynch me today and find your ideal target for a lynch, because the deadline is soon. Then, we can talk about that.
The odd thing is that he has already decided you are town - I think he asked for your reads under the assumption that you would die tonight
I didn't even get to the considering if II would die tonight part. I was just asking for explanation of reads.
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Vote: silver given the closeness of deadline.
Why not TA or simon? They're both much more likely to be scum.
They are?
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Also, since we are on the topic II - what is your reads list prior to the end of D1?
I guess I misunderstood this.
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Vote: silver given the closeness of deadline.
Why not TA or simon? They're both much more likely to be scum.
They are?
yeah, ε > 0.
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Space count, as of #266:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
Simon Jester (2): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone
Not Voting (1): DatSwan
Other interesting thing: the people who each player has voted for so far:
Simon Jester (6): Skumpy, DatSwan, SpaceAnemone, EFHW, TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96
Robz888 (4): Simon Jester, Skumpy, TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96
IguanaIguana (4): Simon Jester, EFHW, silverspawn, Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (4): Simon Jester, Galzria, EFHW, Xxraptorslayer96
Skumpy (2): Galzria, TwistedArcher
SpaceAnemone (2): Simon Jester, silverspawn
EFHW (2): SpaceAnemone, silverspawn
TwistedArcher (2): Galzria, EFHW
Xxraptorslayer96 (2): Simon Jester, EFHW
Galzria (1): silverspawn
gkrieg (1): Skumpy
DatSwan (0): -
As usual, these are vote-counter-generated, so might miss weirdly-formatted votes, or stuff where the mod would have to make a call. LMK if you think there's something wrong, though.
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As for deadline, it's midnight my time, so I'll be here :-) However, I probably won't get online properly till about an hour beforehand because I'm out tomorrow night straight from work.
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@DatSwan - You are wasting your time at this point asking me questions, trying to determine my alignment. My play advice to you is to accept that you don't want to lynch me today and find your ideal target for a lynch, because the deadline is soon. Then, we can talk about that.
The odd thing is that he has already decided you are town - I think he asked for your reads under the assumption that you would die tonight
I didn't even get to the considering if II would die tonight part. I was just asking for explanation of reads.
I have literally never died N1 in any game before so if suddenly this game turns into 'he's alive D2, he must be scum' I would find that pretty ironic.
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@DatSwan - You are wasting your time at this point asking me questions, trying to determine my alignment. My play advice to you is to accept that you don't want to lynch me today and find your ideal target for a lynch, because the deadline is soon. Then, we can talk about that.
The odd thing is that he has already decided you are town - I think he asked for your reads under the assumption that you would die tonight
I didn't even get to the considering if II would die tonight part. I was just asking for explanation of reads.
I have literally never died N1 in any game before so if suddenly this game turns into 'he's alive D2, he must be scum' I would find that pretty ironic.
again. to reiterate... not what I was thinking. The time stamp I put on it was simply because I expected (as you had not yet posted reads) you were not going to give them to me. As you responded something along the lines of "lets talk about this later" - I don't think you will find it hard to accept I was just leaving a reference point.
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And I realize I need to vote. After reading and analyzing I have 3 canidates.
1 of which is never getting lynched today - so not bothering.
It is actually a close choice on the other two. But for now...
Vote: Simon
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Vote: simon
Heres to hoping I'm not just silver's pawn.
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lol Silver's Pawn = Silverspawn
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Simon, why should we not lynch you?
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Vote: simon
Heres to hoping I'm not just silver's pawn.
I think you are. I think you are.
And I don't know right now.. Is the case the scumslip-argument, my tone or some other stuff I missed? I mean I can shut up if that helps, but killing off trying-to-be-helpful newb!town seems like a bad move.
ppe
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Simon, why should we not lynch you?
I have been active, enjoying the game, trying to be as obv!town as I can being new and all. I have failed miserably with that apparently, but still, this is not new!scum playing. I've made strong stances (SA is Scum I guarantee it) flinged my vote nevertheless and yeah - in my mind being new and a tad awkward perhaps but not scummy. I'm the easy lynch among the active players, please avoid it if you can.
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Aren't you like... not actually new? Your continuing emphasis on your newness isn't doing you any favors with me.
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@Simon the reason I somewhat scum read you right now is that I find the people who have voted you during D1 to be a townier set of players than the people who you have voted during D1. Both groups are six players; there's some overlap but not a ton of it. This is info that I extrapolated from Space's data.
How do you respond to that?
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Aren't you like... not actually new? Your continuing emphasis on your newness isn't doing you any favors with me.
For all practical purposes, yes, I am. The only player I can remember playing with is Ashersky and one of my games was BM, all three years ago. You don't know my style and everything I say or do is easy to see in a scummy way because of it. Happens all the time and otherwise I can't really get why I'm getting heat.
Datswan: care to enlighten me? Your vote was unexpected.
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@Simon the reason I somewhat scum read you right now is that I find the people who have voted you during D1 to be a townier set of players than the people who you have voted during D1. Both groups are six players; there's some overlap but not a ton of it. This is info that I extrapolated from Space's data.
How do you respond to that?
You think? It's Silver, SA, Datswan and you right now, right? Except from you they are not townier than anyone else right now and many votes on me earlier have been semi-RVS so I think I have trouble seeing tour point somewhat.
I can see the newbie vs vet argument if it comes up to me or TA, but I could counter with active against lurker so meh.. Do as you wish, no lynch except SA (they are scum, I guarantee it!) are ideal at this point as usual. As long as my death can be productive to town, I'm willing to be lynched I suppose, but I'd rather not 'cause, well, I'm town.
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@Simon the reason I somewhat scum read you right now is that I find the people who have voted you during D1 to be a townier set of players than the people who you have voted during D1. Both groups are six players; there's some overlap but not a ton of it. This is info that I extrapolated from Space's data.
How do you respond to that?
If he's scum, shouldn't he be voting for the people you find towny?
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Vote: Simon
Better him than me.
Iguana is reading very town to me.
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What do you feel?
Vote Count 1.7
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
Twistedarcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, Twistedarcher
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in 15 hours.
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Simon's flailing doesn't scream town to me. No intention to move.
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I'll be around today, almost certainly there for deadline.
This Simon wagon feels like a really bad idea. Firstly, gut says town, I think you people really need to consider the value in lynching somebody who has done a good job of sparking discussion and who seems just too awkward to be scum. Space is voting because of a theory that I have presented as clearly as I possibly could as complete and utter hogwash and poppycock. I'm sure they (and maybe others are thinking) 'oh, it's not a slip but they're still partners, oh man!' No, that's wrong as well. Silverspawn and Silver's Pawn aren't very convincing in their arguments, silver's I remember as being a selection out of EFHW's wagon. TA at least I can understand.
And as for DatSwan...
How he has flown completely under the radar so far, I have absolutely no clue. I suspect due in part to Galz's read. But there's a lot I don't trust, such as being the last one to vote (which I think he's done before, even as town, but still something I don't trust), his arbitrary reads which II aptly described as:
No offense, but you sound to me like you are getting your reads from a random number generator and your scum narratives from a magic 8 ball.....
and his reaction to my coalition offer, which I am now going to settle on as the scummiest response. Maybe other posts interest me too, who knows? So, I'd be OK putting a vote there, but doing so makes it easier for Simon to be the lynch, so I have to stay on TA unless somebody else wants to try starting a wagon there.
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Simon's flailing doesn't scream town to me. No intention to move.
Where did I "flail"?
You won't find gold nor scum in your tunnel Silver, get out already.
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Ugh, a Datswan - reread didn't gave much. He keeps his cards close to himself, don't explain his votes much and is generally vague it seems to me. Although I don't get that much of a scumvibe because of it, but I don't really know his style at all..
Real question - Why? I have like a tinfoil hat D1 theory, but it is currently being outweighed by the silliness of the approach.
Could we hear about the theory now tho? What is your stance on Skumpy right now?
And I realize I need to vote. After reading and analyzing I have 3 canidates.
1 of which is never getting lynched today - so not bothering.
It is actually a close choice on the other two. But for now...
Vote: Simon
I really, really don't like this vote. The timing is perfect for scum to jump on and there is no reasoning what so ever. Just join the kill-the-Jester club will ya, no entrance fee required.. that is not pretty.
And ugh. Please Robz, Galz, Space, gkrieg - come in here. We need you to see if another path is possible. I think TA is better than Datswan right now, but Skumpys case is pretty solid. Datswan- lynch yes/no motivate?
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vote: TA
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What do you feel?
Vote Count 1.8
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
Twistedarcher (4): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, Twistedarcher
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in 11 hours.
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vote: TA
Why TA over simon?
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Space is voting because of a theory that I have presented as clearly as I possibly could as complete and utter hogwash and poppycock.
Space is voting because Simon seems like their top candidate for scum of the people they feel happy with pushing for a D1 lynch.
Do you think Simon is a bad lynch because you think he's townie, or just because you don't like my one comment?
PPE 3: started a response this morning and it got forgotten about...
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vote: TA
Why TA over simon?
Why Simon at all? TA hasn't been contributing.
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The scumslip may not have been anything but Simon and Skumpy are still acting like newbie scumpartners. Biggest evidence against it I guess is that Skumpy has won as scum before so I don't expect such obvious partnery play from him
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Space is voting because of a theory that I have presented as clearly as I possibly could as complete and utter hogwash and poppycock.
Space is voting because Simon seems like their top candidate for scum of the people they feel happy with pushing for a D1 lynch.
Do you think Simon is a bad lynch because you think he's townie, or just because you don't like my one comment?
PPE 3: started a response this morning and it got forgotten about...
What are the other candidates? Why am I the top one, barring everything around the omgus-issue?
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TA hasn't contributed much, but he still looks like a much worse choice than simon to me. Just reread his ISO and what he has said and done has been a lot townier than the other potential lynch candidates.
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The scumslip may not have been anything but Simon and Skumpy are still acting like newbie scumpartners. Biggest evidence against it I guess is that Skumpy has won as scum before so I don't expect such obvious partnery play from him
Skumpy is buddying me, yes, but as you say that is evidence against us being scum together. I don't care much for Skumpys support, it's nice with someone being reasonable but it actually gives him scumpoint from my POV.
Now, listen to your own logic and move this wagon somewhere where it makes sense. My lynch is, to speak with sliver, stupid.
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Request prods on gkrieg, Robz, Galzria
I would bet money on there being at least one scum in those three, wish I knew which tho.
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Request prods on gkrieg, Robz, Galzria
I would bet money on there being at least one scum in those three, wish I knew which tho.
Sent.
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Actually at this point I would go for a wagon on Robz or Galz. Lurking this close to the deadline is scummy and any player who promises content and doesnt deliver is more of a liability than an asset to my mind, reputations be damned.
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gkrieg gets a pass for a towny mid day and he always has spotty appearances anyway
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Actually at this point I would go for a wagon on Robz or Galz. Lurking this close to the deadline is scummy and any player who promises content and doesnt deliver is more of a liability than an asset to my mind, reputations be damned.
I really get the feeling of this day that it is town arguing with each other. So yeah, let's try vote: Robz
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I really thought I had posted.
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Simon-skunpy are definitely buddying, but if it’s town/scum I think skumpy is the more likely town than Simon. When you’re the Lynch candidate if you’re scum, it’s not in your interest to rule anyone out, especially d1. I am much happier voting Simon than skumpy.
Would also not be surprised if scum is in robz/gkrieg/galz, with galz being my favorite candidate. I do kind of agree with simons latest assessment, that town is flailing today and getting nowhere and there’s absolutely no action needed from scum to get the ball rolling in another direction.
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I don’t think there’s enough time to start a new wagon, though.
Gkrieg, I don’t think skumpy will happen today — I’d recommend moving your vote to somewhere a lynch would happen.
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I'm here.
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Why is there not time to start a new wagon? The Simon lynch feels too easy. Also, him voting for me right here is a pretty terrible move if he's scum, because I'm not voting him currently but might, from his perspective, switch to him if irked. Which would be bad.
I actually do not think a Galz vote is crazy here. His lack of involvement here arguably is more likely to signal that he is scum.
Vote: Galz who is with me?
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I'm here.
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Also did we ever get Galz's case on EFHW? I was interested in that.
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Well speak of the devil!
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Sorry, but the line that I've been absent over any given weekend is scummy is ridiculous. You can go back and look at almost every game I've played. Saturday and Sunday are generally 10+ hour days for me. I very, very rarely find the time to post anything during that span - and this is especially true for a D1.
Despite deadline approaching however, I'm teaching until 4:00pm FT. I will be here for the entirety of deadline however. I do not care for either wagon atm and think people should reconsider SS, but I admit I haven't done my part to provide much reason for it. I'll finish that once I'm done teaching as well so at a minimum it's out there before EoD in case I don't get the chance on D2.
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Well speak of the devil!
Kettle can't call out the pot for being black.
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Also did we ever get Galz's case on EFHW? I was interested in that.
SS, not EFHW.
Gotta drive now, so I'm off.
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Wait, so Robz was just being absent rather than formally VLA?
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Wait, so Robz was just being absent rather than formally VLA?
I was at a conference and then a vacation in New Orleans, and traveling all day yesterday. I've got pictures to prove it!
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Also did we ever get Galz's case on EFHW? I was interested in that.
SS, not EFHW.
Gotta drive now, so I'm off.
Oh, well I'd be interested in that, too!
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deadline is in 7 hours?
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Space is voting because of a theory that I have presented as clearly as I possibly could as complete and utter hogwash and poppycock.
Space is voting because Simon seems like their top candidate for scum of the people they feel happy with pushing for a D1 lynch.
Do you think Simon is a bad lynch because you think he's townie, or just because you don't like my one comment?
The former
The scumslip may not have been anything but Simon and Skumpy are still acting like newbie scumpartners. Biggest evidence against it I guess is that Skumpy has won as scum before so I don't expect such obvious partnery play from him
I'm generally a busser, not a buddyer. In fact, if I correctly get a scum lynched today, that would be the most damning evidence against me. And I'd rather be buddies with you, but you're having none of it.
Robz, is there a reason you didn't want to vote Galz when that wagon was at 3?
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Robz, is there a reason you didn't want to vote Galz when that wagon was at 3?
I wasn't here, and never saw that.
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Vote: Galz
The argument was that you promised content and didnt deliver, not just lurking. And I have seen scum do that all the time so I know it is scummy.
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Alright, I'll bite.
Vote: Galz
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I mainly don't want to lynch Space, TA, or silver right now. Skumpy is still by far my first choice. I feel so sure he is scum that i honestly haven't even looked elsewhere.
I'll look at galz and EFHW in a bit.
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What do you feel?
Vote Count 1.9
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
Twistedarcher (1): EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (4): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, Twistedarcher
Robz888 (1): Simon Jester
Galzria (3): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in 4,5 hours.
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I mainly don't want to lynch Space, TA, or silver right now. Skumpy is still by far my first choice. I feel so sure he is scum that i honestly haven't even looked elsewhere.
I'll look at galz and EFHW in a bit.
I'd be OK with voting Galz or TA. Therefore, I'll save you the trouble of having to do a read and help you be more productive today by suggesting you go vote Simon, the only other person who could get lynched.
I'm going to try to be as quick and blunt as possible before I get distracted and embark upon another rant; you're wrong, your read is garbage, and regardless of the quality of the read anyhow, it's awful and embarrassing to tunnel on D1 without even entertaining the thought of anybody else or giving yourself a slight pause to think about the possibility that you could be wrong. I can understand if you think I'm Skum; that's fine, I've heard it before, and it's not even totally absurd. But Christ man; check your ego, and think for a second before you you blow a game (or at least a lynch) based on a single read....on D1. If you aren't scum, I can safely say your reads have been the worst of any town because the only person you have scumread, is in fact, town, and that scum is laughing because one of the players here with the best reputation has been led so far astray.
That probably went too far, and I apologize, but at least express a little self-doubt. There's a reason this game is not easy.
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I mainly don't want to lynch Space, TA, or silver right now. Skumpy is still by far my first choice. I feel so sure he is scum that i honestly haven't even looked elsewhere.
I'll look at galz and EFHW in a bit.
I'd be OK with voting Galz or TA. Therefore, I'll save you the trouble of having to do a read and help you be more productive today by suggesting you go vote Simon, the only other person who could get lynched.
I'm going to try to be as quick and blunt as possible before I get distracted and embark upon another rant; you're wrong, your read is garbage, and regardless of the quality of the read anyhow, it's awful and embarrassing to tunnel on D1 without even entertaining the thought of anybody else or giving yourself a slight pause to think about the possibility that you could be wrong. I can understand if you think I'm Skum; that's fine, I've heard it before, and it's not even totally absurd. But Christ man; check your ego, and think for a second before you you blow a game (or at least a lynch) based on a single read....on D1. If you aren't scum, I can safely say your reads have been the worst of any town because the only person you have scumread, is in fact, town, and that scum is laughing because one of the players here with the best reputation has been led so far astray.
That probably went too far, and I apologize, but at least express a little self-doubt. There's a reason this game is not easy.
I'm sorry, but this just makes me want to lynch you more. This is scummy OMGUS. It doesn't try to discredit me, the person making the argument (I admit that I haven't given that many reasons), instead of the argument itself. Saying that it is awful and embarrassing to tunnel hard D1 is absurd. It's certainly not about my ego. I'm consistently wrong about tunnels (especially D1 on faust), and people are consistently wrong about me when I'm tunnelled D1 (which also happens enough).
Want to explain why you think Simon should be lynched over TA and galz?
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I mainly don't want to lynch Space, TA, or silver right now. Skumpy is still by far my first choice. I feel so sure he is scum that i honestly haven't even looked elsewhere.
I'll look at galz and EFHW in a bit.
I'd be OK with voting Galz or TA. Therefore, I'll save you the trouble of having to do a read and help you be more productive today by suggesting you go vote Simon, the only other person who could get lynched.
I'm going to try to be as quick and blunt as possible before I get distracted and embark upon another rant; you're wrong, your read is garbage, and regardless of the quality of the read anyhow, it's awful and embarrassing to tunnel on D1 without even entertaining the thought of anybody else or giving yourself a slight pause to think about the possibility that you could be wrong. I can understand if you think I'm Skum; that's fine, I've heard it before, and it's not even totally absurd. But Christ man; check your ego, and think for a second before you you blow a game (or at least a lynch) based on a single read....on D1. If you aren't scum, I can safely say your reads have been the worst of any town because the only person you have scumread, is in fact, town, and that scum is laughing because one of the players here with the best reputation has been led so far astray.
That probably went too far, and I apologize, but at least express a little self-doubt. There's a reason this game is not easy.
I'm sorry, but this just makes me want to lynch you more. This is scummy OMGUS. It doesn't try to discredit me, the person making the argument (I admit that I haven't given that many reasons), instead of the argument itself. Saying that it is awful and embarrassing to tunnel hard D1 is absurd. It's certainly not about my ego. I'm consistently wrong about tunnels (especially D1 on faust), and people are consistently wrong about me when I'm tunnelled D1 (which also happens enough).
Want to explain why you think Simon should be lynched over TA and galz?
The sad part of the omgus is I’m leaning town on you.
I’m saying since I dont want to vote Simon, you should because obviously I’m skum protecting a partner.
I’ve said reasons before for reads, can’t now since I’m phoneposting at lunch.
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Galz is an okey lynch. Not the best, but it's worth a shot. Vote: Galzria
Skumpys reaction to gkriegs scumread is... weird. Your olay today has been outlandish and it's not surprising at all someone regards it as very scummy. I don't agree with gkrieg, but can't say my townread on you is the strongest one ever.
Hope to be here at deadline but might not make it.
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prefer Simon over galz.
Galz has done nothing. That's generally bad for a day 1 lynch. In case of a lurker it's a problematic argument, because they are a problem for town later, too. But presumably galz would do more later.
That and he's just 100% null.
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Galz is an okey lynch. Not the best, but it's worth a shot. Vote: Galzria
Skumpys reaction to gkriegs scumread is... weird. Your olay today has been outlandish and it's not surprising at all someone regards it as very scummy. I don't agree with gkrieg, but can't say my townread on you is the strongest one ever.
Hope to be here at deadline but might not make it.
Scumreading isn't what bothers me. It's the tunnel, which lends itself to complete unhelpfulness.
So Galz is going to vote Simon. gkrieg's going to vote Simon because I'm not. Even if EFHW votes Galz, it's still 6-5, and there's basically nobody on the Simon wagon that I think could swing.
To respond to gkrieg: As I once said, I don't like Galz ignoring the coalition and all the responses. I feel like it got the game out of RVS pretty quickly, and those are the kinds of situations that Galz loves to look at to figure out who responded scummily. It feels like a cop-out on his part to say I'm skummy and leave it at that.
It remains to be seen, of course, but I'm not sure this is a dual-town wagon. The Galz wagon is interesting, and the people on it are interesting.
Not sure of deadline status. Around for most of the next few hours, but probably a biggish break somewhere. Maybe during deadline, maybe before.
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prefer Simon over galz.
Galz has done nothing. That's generally bad for a day 1 lynch. In case of a lurker it's a problematic argument, because they are a problem for town later, too. But presumably galz would do more later.
That and he's just 100% null.
I don't think Galz is a bad lynch here. I mean, I have this impulse to not lynch him, just because he's Galz. But it's good to mix things up.
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So Galz is going to vote Simon. gkrieg's going to vote Simon because I'm not. Even if EFHW votes Galz, it's still 6-5, and there's basically nobody on the Simon wagon that I think could swing.
TA and Datswan should be able to swing, and if they're not they should be the first to be under suspicion D2 when I flip town.
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Yeah, I’m perfectly happy voting Galz.
vote: galzria
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Skumpy’s rant is over the top but reads genuine town to me.
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Regardless, I don’t think scum skumpy would buddy Simon this hard if Simon was either town. So I don’t want to lynch skumpy while Simon is alive, I am definitely leaning town on skumpy.
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Apart from Simon and robz, who is completely null, I’m happy with the people on the galzria wagon. More town reads on wagon than off wagon.
Gkrieg’s tunneling on skumpy is weird in that it’s not going to happen today, he should know based on the vote count it’s not happening today, so he should be trying to move one of the lynches that’s actually possible forward, but he’s not doing so.
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Agree, skumpy's rant is fairly townie. Weird that gkrieg doesn't see that.
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FOS to everyone not actively moving us to a lynch. There’s a lot of people who still have their votes in useless places 2.5 hours to deadline, and some of these people have come in and posted and not moved their votes.
Everyone should be stating how they feel about Simon and galzria, and if they’re not willing to lynch either then try to get a third wagon going, but we really don’t have much time left.
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Apart from Simon and robz, who is completely null, I’m happy with the people on the galzria wagon. More town reads on wagon than off wagon.
Gkrieg’s tunneling on skumpy is weird in that it’s not going to happen today, he should know based on the vote count it’s not happening today, so he should be trying to move one of the lynches that’s actually possible forward, but he’s not doing so.
Ok, yeah, scumreading Skumpy all you want but his lynch won't happen D1 and parking your vote there in this way is almost beyond useless. FoS und so weiter..
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Skumpy’s rant is over the top but reads genuine town to me.
Probably. Almost certainly. But I was getting sick that our argument was sounding like a broken record.
Regardless, I don’t think scum skumpy would buddy Simon this hard if Simon was either town. So I don’t want to lynch skumpy while Simon is alive, I am definitely leaning town on skumpy.
It's a townread that could waver if he survives today. I'd probably be fighting more vigorously if it was Iguana. I don't think buddying and challenging lynches is particularly alignment indicative for me, though I do think it points away from our Axis, *cough* Space *cough*.
Agree, skumpy's rant is fairly townie. Weird that gkrieg doesn't see that.
Funny, I can actually see my rant as kind of scummy. I'll take the townread though.
FOS to everyone not actively moving us to a lynch. There’s a lot of people who still have their votes in useless places 2.5 hours to deadline, and some of these people have come in and posted and not moved their votes.
This. Also going to extend it to Raptor for showing up and not moving his vote.
I should probably accept at this point that I've never been able to stick to a scum D1 and help get them lynched before, so apologize in advance if I wind up having helped not at all.
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Honestly I can't remember the last D1 scum lynch on f.ds. It starts to feel hopeless but I believe its possible
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Galz is an okey lynch. Not the best, but it's worth a shot. Vote: Galzria
Skumpys reaction to gkriegs scumread is... weird. Your olay today has been outlandish and it's not surprising at all someone regards it as very scummy. I don't agree with gkrieg, but can't say my townread on you is the strongest one ever.
Hope to be here at deadline but might not make it.
Scumreading isn't what bothers me. It's the tunnel, which lends itself to complete unhelpfulness.
So Galz is going to vote Simon. gkrieg's going to vote Simon because I'm not. Even if EFHW votes Galz, it's still 6-5, and there's basically nobody on the Simon wagon that I think could swing.
To respond to gkrieg: As I once said, I don't like Galz ignoring the coalition and all the responses. I feel like it got the game out of RVS pretty quickly, and those are the kinds of situations that Galz loves to look at to figure out who responded scummily. It feels like a cop-out on his part to say I'm skummy and leave it at that.
It remains to be seen, of course, but I'm not sure this is a dual-town wagon. The Galz wagon is interesting, and the people on it are interesting.
Not sure of deadline status. Around for most of the next few hours, but probably a biggish break somewhere. Maybe during deadline, maybe before.
I don't know why you think I'm going to vote for Simon just because you aren't going to vote for him.
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vote: Simon
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vote: Simon
So, uhm, why are you voting me?
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vote: Simon
So, uhm, why are you voting me?
Between you and galz, your wagon is townier.
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That's five votes for Galz, four for Simon?
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vote: Simon
So, uhm, why are you voting me?
Between you and galz, your wagon is townier.
You will not think so tomorrow...
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request vote count, please
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gkrieg's going to vote Simon because I'm not.
I don't know why you think I'm going to vote for Simon just because you aren't going to vote for him.
vote: Simon
So, uhm, why are you voting me?
Between you and galz, your wagon is townier.
...am I crazy?
Also, gone 30 minutes before deadline. 99% won't be back in time.
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I apologize to one and all for my late foray into this whole D1 thing - and being this close to deadline. I honestly thought it was on Tuesday, not today, but I obviously haven't been paying much attention. That aside, it wouldn't have changed my tardiness here - real life and work have prevented me from being as present as I wished to be... but alas, that isn't exactly anything new on my end.
To the meat of my Silver vote - and one that I honestly hope isn't too late for others to get on board with. I recognize in advance this isn't the "best case ever built" - but I DO think that it's more indicative of a scum alignment than most D1 cases - that is, it isn't focused solely on "Well, this person is a better D3 lynch than a D1 lynch", or "LALL", or "enter nonsense D1 scumslip here". The case is mostly based on a series of things that I feel like have been designed to dictate the way D1 has gone - that is, SS has tried to control the conversation D1, which is far easier and more likely to come from a source of knowledge (scum), rather than from a source of uncertainty (town):
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Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.
Iguana is his partner.
I like how you think.
You really shouldn't. could both of you say how serious your comments were?
This was a small, early thing, that I responded to (my response probably came across harsher than I meant - I meant it more tongue in cheek), but what stood out to me then was that SS, as a third party to Gkrieg and I, would feel the need to attempt to dictate how we read a situation. It was more than just a "I disagree with what you think" though, it was "You shouldn't think that" - it's an attempt to dictate and control.
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That's a stupid vote. My instinct is to vote you in return but I don't think it actually makes you scummy.
This was in response to Simon voting for Space. This was the point in time that I began to scum read SS for this particular style of play. He didn't argue anything about the case that Simon made... he simply tried to dictate what/how Simon should read the game.
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Ok, let's see where we are
iguana and skumpy are towny. Everyone else is null.
Not too great. We still have some time but not too much.
Maybe I could go for galz. I don't like the total dismissiveness of the scumslip. What if it actually was a scumslip?
Actually, that possibility sort of negates the towniness of skumpy and puts him closer to null. But I'm not voting for him anyway so it doesn't really matter.
This was followed by an immediate vote for me - now, there are certainly reasons to vote me, but this reason isn't one - first, it wasn't a scumslip - that doesn't mean the involved parties aren't scum, it just means that the "scumslip" wasn't one. Second, I was hardly the only person to very quickly state the above opinion. And third, well, I'll circle back because it's kinda my second thing about SS that I've found scummy. The last point here is how SS has tried to control the way the thread viewed the "scumslip". It's a subtle progression from "probably not one" and ends with him essentially calling it a real thing... except this should cause him to vote Skumpy... right? Except... he doesn't? And doesn't even really scum read Skumpy for a scumslip that he's saying is a thing... Here, watch:
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This doesn't seem like one to me either, but I wouldn't disount it completely.
Maybe I could go for galz. I don't like the total dismissiveness of the scumslip. What if it actually was a scumslip?
skumpy is no longer towny since they just admitted to have planed the deal thing before the game started. Now slightly scummy for the scumslip.
And this actually leads in to my second thing about SS's play - he's been very good at pushing town in one direction while not involving himself, or pushing a town narrative while keeping undertones of "but don't rule scum out here!"... that is, he's saying one thing, while coming across as meaning the opposite - in a way that just feels manipulative to me.
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hello.
iguana is the only one making sense so far. Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.
I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.
"I agree with Iguana for supporting Skumpy here, but I won't support Skumpy here"
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Simon seems so scummy to me that I'm beginning to think it's not an alignment think but a tone thing.
"Dude over here is scummy... but you didn't hear it from me!"
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I super duper strongly disagree that only scum cares about scumslips. I think town cares more about scumslips, generally.
This doesn't seem like one to me either, but I wouldn't disount it completely.
"This probably isn't a scumslip... but it could be!"
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That's a stupid vote. My instinct is to vote you in return but I don't think it actually makes you scummy.
"You deserve to be voted for your post... but I don't wanna be the one to do it!"
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ok. vote: EFHW is as good as any.
I can't remember any game in which she was lynched early. Let's see what some day1 pressure does.
"Let's get and EFHW wagon going!..."
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Also unvote I don't like the EFHW wagon. It has basically no justification and picked up too quickly.
The people who jumped on it are where I would look for scum now. Ironically, that's iguana. But then he changed. The others are raptor and simon.
vote: simon
"That was a scummy wagon on EFHW. I need to make sure to spin this to other people before it comes back to me for jumping on it with Iguana"
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Vote: silver given the closeness of deadline.
Why not TA or simon? They're both much more likely to be scum.
And this is just confirmation bias, but this just feels much more likely to be a scum response than a town response.
And that's pretty much it. If you look over his vote history, he's been all over the map, and making changes quickly and often without reason, which has felt like he's trying to spread suspicion around as much as possible and keep as many doors open as he can. Overall, his play D1 has just come across as manipulative - like he wants to be in control of how people are thinking and voting. He's seemed to have his opinions set, and has come across as wanting to sow distrust wherever possible.
Just my 2 cents.
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That's five votes for Galz, four for Simon?
Think so. 5-5 if you count Galz, who's not here. PPE: Never mind. Let's read now!
Looks like EFHW's making the call.
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gkrieg's going to vote Simon because I'm not.
I don't know why you think I'm going to vote for Simon just because you aren't going to vote for him.
vote: Simon
So, uhm, why are you voting me?
Between you and galz, your wagon is townier.
...am I crazy?
Also, gone 30 minutes before deadline. 99% won't be back in time.
I mean, yeah, I saw that; it's a little funny. But saying someone is going to do something for X reason before they have themselves decided what they are going to do is arrogant in a not-so-nice way so I think his response was totally justified.
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[snip]
Just my 2 cents.
Ugh that's an awfully big two cents to throw out like 2 hours from the deadline :/ now I have to think about it
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Here's where I'm at:
Would vote Simon
Would vote silver
Would vote Galz
Would I vote just about ANYONE?
Not telling.
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[snip]
Just my 2 cents.
Ugh that's an awfully big two cents to throw out like 2 hours from the deadline :/ now I have to think about it
If it's too late, it's too late. That's my bad. But I posted it when I had the time to do so - it's out there before D1 ends, and if I end up lynched, or killed at night, or whatever, at least it's posted.
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I mean, my thing just showed EIGHT people viewing this thread, maybe some are spectators but presumably it's not too late for anything. If you have an opinion on Galz's post, please just share it and don't assume it's irrelevant because "X lynch is never going to happen before the deadline."
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gkrieg's going to vote Simon because I'm not.
I don't know why you think I'm going to vote for Simon just because you aren't going to vote for him.
vote: Simon
So, uhm, why are you voting me?
Between you and galz, your wagon is townier.
...am I crazy?
Also, gone 30 minutes before deadline. 99% won't be back in time.
I mean, yeah, I saw that; it's a little funny. But saying someone is going to do something for X reason before they have themselves decided what they are going to do is arrogant in a not-so-nice way so I think his response was totally justified.
Was I that arrogant? I'm sorry if I was, but I was playing out the scenario I expected, and I didn't expect to see him voting where I was.
On Galz's post on ss not voting for me: It's called a coalition. I'm glad it's done well for me. Not sure why the scumslip discussion makes you focused on why ss isn't voting for me, as opposed to not voting for Simon.
Despite all that, where you pull out like 15 pieces of evidence, I'm still lost as to why you continue to ignore the most interesting post of all:
you know what, you're right! I didn't think this far.
Ok, skumpy, how about we don't vote for each other until day 3?
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I'm around now, and just caught up. Give me a couple more minutes and I'll have an auto-vote-count.
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I like this case/compilation. I have observed the same thing, but to much extent just thought of it as silvers playstile. Being a bit aggressive and harsch and that it isn't alignment-indecative, but seeing at collected like this it's a bit damning. I mean, I can take that he calls my vote stupid and don't engage in the scumslip- discussion but he has apparently done similar things all day here.
I don't care if I become the lynch because of it, I don't want to lynch Galz now. vote: silver
(Have I voted everyone except II now?)
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Space Count as of #364
silverspawn (2): Galzria, Simon Jester
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (4): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (1): EFHW
Galzria (4): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, TwistedArcher
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vote: silver, but for defensiveness more than bossiness.
I'm here until deadline.
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(Have I voted everyone except II now?)
I believe you're still missing silver and yourself.
Everyone's history of who they've voted for so far in D1:
Simon Jester (9): Robz888, Galzria, Skumpy, DatSwan, SpaceAnemone, EFHW, TwistedArcher, silverspawn, Xxraptorslayer96
Robz888 (5): Simon Jester, Galzria, Skumpy, TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96
IguanaIguana (5): Simon Jester, Galzria, EFHW, silverspawn, Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (4): Simon Jester, Galzria, EFHW, Xxraptorslayer96
EFHW (3): SpaceAnemone, TwistedArcher, silverspawn
TwistedArcher (3): Simon Jester, Galzria, EFHW
Skumpy (2): Galzria, TwistedArcher
SpaceAnemone (2): Simon Jester, silverspawn
gkrieg (2): Simon Jester, Skumpy
Xxraptorslayer96 (2): Simon Jester, EFHW
Galzria (1): silverspawn
DatSwan (1): Simon Jester
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gkrieg's going to vote Simon because I'm not.
I don't know why you think I'm going to vote for Simon just because you aren't going to vote for him.
vote: Simon
So, uhm, why are you voting me?
Between you and galz, your wagon is townier.
...am I crazy?
Also, gone 30 minutes before deadline. 99% won't be back in time.
I mean, yeah, I saw that; it's a little funny. But saying someone is going to do something for X reason before they have themselves decided what they are going to do is arrogant in a not-so-nice way so I think his response was totally justified.
Was I that arrogant? I'm sorry if I was, but I was playing out the scenario I expected, and I didn't expect to see him voting where I was.
On Galz's post on ss not voting for me: It's called a coalition. I'm glad it's done well for me. Not sure why the scumslip discussion makes you focused on why ss isn't voting for me, as opposed to not voting for Simon.
Despite all that, where you pull out like 15 pieces of evidence, I'm still lost as to why you continue to ignore the most interesting post of all:
you know what, you're right! I didn't think this far.
Ok, skumpy, how about we don't vote for each other until day 3?
It matters because there is no "coalition" in the game that should keep one player from voting for another if the first honestly believes that the second SCUMslipped - that is, gave something away that was evidence of being scum - which is what SS ended on with "slightly scummy for the scumslip" - it's either a thing, or it isn't - he's saying that, yes, in fact, the scumslip IS a thing - but he's using your "coalition" to avoid voting for you over it - he's pushing a scum narrative on you without taking responsibility, something he's done a lot of.
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Here until deadline as well btw
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What do you feel?
Vote Count 1.10
silverspawn (3): Galzria, Simon Jester, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (4): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13
Galzria (4): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in ~1 hour.
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I don't buy some big pieces of Galz's case on silver. I think Galz is just not really reading silver's comments in as Bayesian a sense as I think silver means them.
For example, the fact that I could point out a very tenuous scumslip gives a very slightly higher likelihood of them being scum in town!silver's eyes than would the same situation if there wasn't even any super-tenuous evidence. That holds even if you think there's only a 0.01% chance of the language used having arisen because of scum-QT conversation. It really doesn't have to be an is-or-isn't thing for any of that reasoning to work, and silver can be pretty sure I'm nuts for my observation and still take it a tiny bit into account.
PPE 3
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It matters because there is no "coalition" in the game that should keep one player from voting for another if the first honestly believes that the second SCUMslipped - that is, gave something away that was evidence of being scum - which is what SS ended on with "slightly scummy for the scumslip" - it's either a thing, or it isn't - he's saying that, yes, in fact, the scumslip IS a thing - but he's using your "coalition" to avoid voting for you over it - he's pushing a scum narrative on you without taking responsibility, something he's done a lot of.
Except my scumslip would've implicated Simon as well. So if ss truly thought it was a scumslip, he would say something like "Scumslip there, but since I can't vote Skumpy, I'll vote Simon". This is exactly what I did in the post where I voted TA, except it was on something more arbitrary than a scumslip.
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I don't love the silver case at all. In my eyes, it's a bunch of stuff that doesn't necessarily strike me as scummy. It's not necessarily towny, either, but it really reads like Galz is trying to paint every single post by silver as scummy to meet his conclusion. It doesn't read genuine at all.
If Galz is town, he has no idea what silver is. In his case, he reads basically every single post by silver in the worst possible light. This reads like someone trying to move to paint someone as scummy, and letting the conclusion lead the evidence, rather than the other way around.
Also, let's look at this vote count:
What do you feel?
Vote Count 1.10
silverspawn (3): Galzria, Simon Jester, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (4): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13
Galzria (4): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in ~1 hour.
Simon and Galzria, the two main lynch candidates up until the silver case, aren't voting for each other! They're both moving to get a third wagon going.
I'm fine with either Simon or Galzria, and I prefer Galz. That case on silver just reads so incredibly disingenous to me.
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Really, it's so incredibly odd for Galzria and Simon to not be voting for each other. If I'm town, D1 I'm voting for ANYONE if they're the alternate wagon. I don't care how big a town read I have on them, it's D1 and it's a shot in the dark. The fact that Galz and Simon are the two largest wagons, and are both voting for a third wagon, silver, rather than for each other, is setting off enormous alarms in my head.
Silver has shot way up on my town list as a result of this
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I don't love the silver case at all. In my eyes, it's a bunch of stuff that doesn't necessarily strike me as scummy. It's not necessarily towny, either, but it really reads like Galz is trying to paint every single post by silver as scummy to meet his conclusion. It doesn't read genuine at all.
If Galz is town, he has no idea what silver is. In his case, he reads basically every single post by silver in the worst possible light. This reads like someone trying to move to paint someone as scummy, and letting the conclusion lead the evidence, rather than the other way around.
Also, let's look at this vote count:
What do you feel?
Vote Count 1.10
silverspawn (3): Galzria, Simon Jester, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (4): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13
Galzria (4): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in ~1 hour.
Simon and Galzria, the two main lynch candidates up until the silver case, aren't voting for each other! They're both moving to get a third wagon going.
I'm fine with either Simon or Galzria, and I prefer Galz. That case on silver just reads so incredibly disingenous to me.
I didn't include or even point to over half of his posts. Most of his posts are null. Your complaint is that there is a lot of evidence to support my read, and you're trying to spin it that I'm simply calling every post out negatively with no real reason to do so, which is simply untrue.
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Really, it's so incredibly odd for Galzria and Simon to not be voting for each other. If I'm town, D1 I'm voting for ANYONE if they're the alternate wagon. I don't care how big a town read I have on them, it's D1 and it's a shot in the dark. The fact that Galz and Simon are the two largest wagons, and are both voting for a third wagon, silver, rather than for each other, is setting off enormous alarms in my head.
Silver has shot way up on my town list as a result of this
I don't town read Simon. Never have. Never stated to do so. I've scum read SS for some time though, and promised a case on him that I simply didn't have time to post earlier. The fact that it's come at the end of the day when the wagon on me was created in my absence is beyond my control. I was very clear that if making a wagon on SS was a thing that is too late to happen, then so be it, and I'll vote for Simon. But I would much rather push my scum read while I have the chance to do so, then resign myself to a lynch I have no opinion on just to save myself.
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I definitely want to lynch Galz after that case. I think he's scum desperately scrambling to get another wagon going, and using every post he can and painting it in the most malicious light to get silver to look as scummy as possible.
If he's town, it's just such a sloppy case, that still takes a conclusion (silver = scum), and tries to go back and find evidence to paint it that way, and I don't think that's likely coming from town!Galz. I think town!Galz jumps on Simon here rather than making that weird case on silver.
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I don't love the silver case at all. In my eyes, it's a bunch of stuff that doesn't necessarily strike me as scummy. It's not necessarily towny, either, but it really reads like Galz is trying to paint every single post by silver as scummy to meet his conclusion. It doesn't read genuine at all.
If Galz is town, he has no idea what silver is. In his case, he reads basically every single post by silver in the worst possible light. This reads like someone trying to move to paint someone as scummy, and letting the conclusion lead the evidence, rather than the other way around.
Also, let's look at this vote count:
What do you feel?
Vote Count 1.10
silverspawn (3): Galzria, Simon Jester, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (4): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13
Galzria (4): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in ~1 hour.
Simon and Galzria, the two main lynch candidates up until the silver case, aren't voting for each other! They're both moving to get a third wagon going.
I'm fine with either Simon or Galzria, and I prefer Galz. That case on silver just reads so incredibly disingenous to me.
I didn't include or even point to over half of his posts. Most of his posts are null. Your complaint is that there is a lot of evidence to support my read, and you're trying to spin it that I'm simply calling every post out negatively with no real reason to do so, which is simply untrue.
Oh come on. Some posts are so null that you can't possibly get scum reads from them, and yet you're painting them in the worst possible light to further your case. You're telling me that you're really getting a scum read from the following quotes, and how you're quoting them really fed into your analysis before determining that you think silver is spawn? I call BS -- the following interpretations read extremely fake to me. You're just simply painting silver in the worst possible light.
Simon seems so scummy to me that I'm beginning to think it's not an alignment think but a tone thing.
"Dude over here is scummy... but you didn't hear it from me!"
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I super duper strongly disagree that only scum cares about scumslips. I think town cares more about scumslips, generally.
This doesn't seem like one to me either, but I wouldn't disount it completely.
"This probably isn't a scumslip... but it could be!"
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That's a stupid vote. My instinct is to vote you in return but I don't think it actually makes you scummy.
"You deserve to be voted for your post... but I don't wanna be the one to do it!"
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ok. vote: EFHW is as good as any.
I can't remember any game in which she was lynched early. Let's see what some day1 pressure does.
"Let's get and EFHW wagon going!..."
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Also unvote I don't like the EFHW wagon. It has basically no justification and picked up too quickly.
The people who jumped on it are where I would look for scum now. Ironically, that's iguana. But then he changed. The others are raptor and simon.
vote: simon
"That was a scummy wagon on EFHW. I need to make sure to spin this to other people before it comes back to me for jumping on it with Iguana"
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I definitely want to lynch Galz after that case. I think he's scum desperately scrambling to get another wagon going, and using every post he can and painting it in the most malicious light to get silver to look as scummy as possible.
If he's town, it's just such a sloppy case, that still takes a conclusion (silver = scum), and tries to go back and find evidence to paint it that way, and I don't think that's likely coming from town!Galz. I think town!Galz jumps on Simon here rather than making that weird case on silver.
The only one scrambling out of the blue right now is you, TA.
Scum!Galz far less reason to make some weird third hour play at SS over just voting for Simon than Town!Galz does. Scum!Galz already has an out, without having to do anything. He can lynch any other player and not care. Town!Galz actually wants to lynch scum, and will pursue his preferred lynch as long as it's viable to do so.
And again, I've debunked your claim:
"and using every post he can and painting it in the most malicious light to get silver to look as scummy as possible."
as simply not true. Fake News.
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You could take anyone's posts and use language like that to spin a towny or a scummy narrative. That doesn't mean that it's a good case, and it just reads very very fake to me.
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Ugh are we really using "fake news" here in mafia games? OK, time to log off, that's absurd and I am so unhappy that that's bleeding into f.ds. Time to go cooldown
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At the market. Be back at a computer with 15 to spare.
Will switch if u have to. Bother seem like worse wagons than Simon still tho
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I agree with Space and TA about Galz's case in that he is choosing to view things in one arbitrary way. My thought, though, was that scum!galz would have just voted for simon. TA's theory requires both Galz and Simon to be scum, which feels like a stretch on D1. But it is true Galz is doing a last minute diversion to a third wagon on Day 1, when no one's cases are likely to be any good. My scumreads today have been silver, TA and Space. Galz is attacking silver; TA and Space jump in to defend him. I doubt very much that I have found the scum team, but I'll stick with my reads for now. Long way of saying I considered the arguments against Galz's case and am staying on silver.
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Really, it's so incredibly odd for Galzria and Simon to not be voting for each other. If I'm town, D1 I'm voting for ANYONE if they're the alternate wagon. I don't care how big a town read I have on them, it's D1 and it's a shot in the dark. The fact that Galz and Simon are the two largest wagons, and are both voting for a third wagon, silver, rather than for each other, is setting off enormous alarms in my head.
Silver has shot way up on my town list as a result of this
It is a valid point somewhat but it haven't been a very productive D1 and I wanted this case earlier to have better wagons as alternative to mine. I don't like a galz-lynch very much, it was a LALL-choice (and I rather pick Robz), you seems townie now and I don't want it anymore. Silver is very much null but of the active players he has been the least helpful and is the lynch with highest chance catching scum as it is right now. I have trouble explaining town!ss behaviour this day and I rather voting who I think is scum than doing something out of self-preservation, I don't care much if it means that my lynch becomes inevitable, I think it is still the right thing to do.
ppe
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Silver was the second-most-prolific poster when I made my reads list before, so it's not surprising that there are things he's said that can be taken against him.
The thing I noted to myself about what he'd written was that he said at #144 that he didn't have any scumreads yet, even though he'd already said some things were scummy. The rest of his narrative seemed to say that he'd had a scumread on Simon that he'd concluded was too scummy to be scum", so it had faded. But that's not the same as no scumreads yet.
I'm still not interested in a silver wagon, even though that's practically a scumslip by my standards ;-)
PPE 6+
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am here. catching up with the last page.
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I don't really like the case on silver.
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I don't believe Galz not voting Simon is a sign of scum scrambling to not bus, that's way too extreme, and furthermore, we didn't get 2 wagons right. That's preposterous. This attempt to divert the wagon with an hour to spare really doesn't strike me much one way or the other. ss isn't going to go through, I think his vote's ending up on Simon eventually. I think scum!Galz knows that, I think town!Galz suspects that.
The case on ss isn't awful, scum usually likes to look reasonable without looking committal. It's arbitrary, but so is everything D1. Honest answer, I don't really have enough time to digest it all, though there are some things I've already indicated that stand out.
I'll be gone very soon, and I don't think I've heard enough to get me to change my vote. Also, I'm not voting ss in the first place, as I said long ago. If you can put together 8 votes, more power to you. It wouldn't be the worst lynch, not by a mile. But I don't see it happening.
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I agree with Space and TA about Galz's case in that he is choosing to view things in one arbitrary way. My thought, though, was that scum!galz would have just voted for simon. TA's theory requires both Galz and Simon to be scum, which feels like a stretch on D1. But it is true Galz is doing a last minute diversion to a third wagon on Day 1, when no one's cases are likely to be any good. My scumreads today have been silver, TA and Space. Galz is attacking silver; TA and Space jump in to defend him. I doubt very much that I have found the scum team, but I'll stick with my reads for now. Long way of saying I considered the arguments against Galz's case and am staying on silver.
It may very well be that I'm looking for things and finding them scummy - that's kind of the point of playing. I have stayed up to date in thread, I have the entire day. As the day went on, I developed a scum read on a player, that read continued to grow stronger, and by far is the biggest scum read that I have. So in making a case on them, feeling them more likely scum than anyone else at this point, I go back and re-read them looking for what I feel to be supporting evidence. That doesn't make me right, and it doesn't mean the actions of the accused cannot come from town instead of scum. It means that due to some posts by SS, I think he's scum, I would prefer to lynch him, and I've used his posts to explain why he reads scummy to me. One could argue that those same posts read townie to them - and I've seen that. Literally someone makes a post, and the two posts immediately following it are from two different players: one quoting and saying it's a townie post, and the other quoting and saying it's a scummy post. Maybe those posts read townie to other people... but they don't read townie to me, so I have absolutely no problem using them to make a case here.
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All that said, 28 minutes to deadline, and I doubt there's enough support to make the lynch go through - Skumpy's right about that. Even with 3 on right now, if the lizard flipped, the swan flipped, and even if Skumpy flipped, that's 6, not 7. TA, Space, SS (duh) and Gkrieg don't seem interested in voting there. Raptor is gone. That only leaves Robz, and we're rolling the dice on him even showing up.
So yes, I'll likely have to end up voting Simon. I'm fine with that. I said earlier that an attempt to lynch SS may be too late - but that regardless I wanted the case and the read out there. If I'm lynched or die at night, you'll at least know that the read was genuine.
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damn, need to go. Leaving my vote on Galz after all. Vote: Galzria
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Unfortunate.
Vote: Simon
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Anyone have a vote count?
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Anyone have a vote count?
Simon and I are at 5, EFHW is on SS, Raptor is on EFHW.
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Intent to vote simon
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vote: Simon L-1
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~case~
Ok, two points about that
"This probably isn't a scumslip... but it could be!"
Well... yeah. That's, like, obviously true.
I'm picking this out because it's similar to a bunch of things you accuse me of, which boil down to saying that things are kind of gray. And you're making that sound scummy.
But isn't what I said about the slip just obviously true from the PoV of anyone who's town and not skumpy? "It's probably not a slip but it could be" – well, duh. What else could you think about it?
So yeah, I don't think being nuanced is a bad thing.
Two:
"Let's get and EFHW wagon going!..."
"That was a scummy wagon on EFHW. I need to make sure to spin this to other people before it comes back to me for jumping on it with Iguana"
You could easily interpret this in the opposite way. In fact, it seems to me like this is more plausibly interpreted in the opposite way. You're accusing me of being non-commital and throwing suspicion. I voted for EFHW, started a wagon, then changed my mind even though EFHW looked like a plausible lynch at that point. Isn't that the opposite of what you're describing?
The fact that you're pretending like this fits your theory doesn't speak well of the case I think. The strength of a theory is in what it can't predict. If anything I do fits your theory, it has no predictive power. An honest reading of my posts should have realized that what I did with EFHW doesn't actually fit at all.
Also, do you think EFHW is in fact town? Then why did I abandon the lynch? Didn't I put myself in more danger?
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In the end, I think simon is probably town :/
He's voted everyone except for me and gkrieg. So if he's town, he's guaranteed to have voted at least two scum, and likely the whole team if gkrieg isn't scum. And he did make every single one of those votes like he meant it.
I'm kinda surprised to be defending him right now, but I actually think it's stupid to be lynching an active player with a decent change of just being a ramble/scramble newb!town.
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I don't buy some big pieces of Galz's case on silver. I think Galz is just not really reading silver's comments in as Bayesian a sense as I think silver means them.
This is beautifully put.
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Still here, don't know when my meeting is supposed to start.
In the end, I think simon is probably town :/
He's voted everyone except for me and gkrieg. So if he's town, he's guaranteed to have voted at least two scum, and likely the whole team if gkrieg isn't scum. And he did make every single one of those votes like he meant it.
I'm kinda surprised to be defending him right now, but I actually think it's stupid to be lynching an active player with a decent change of just being a ramble/scramble newb!town.
Well put.
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What do you feel?
Vote Count 1.11
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (6): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13, Galzria, EFHW
Galzria (5): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher, Simon Jester
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in 16 minutes.
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When we lynch the active players D1, we allow scum to lurk to victory every single game and also eliminate the players who are the most fun to play with. This is lame.
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In the end, I think simon is probably town :/
He's voted everyone except for me and gkrieg. So if he's town, he's guaranteed to have voted at least two scum, and likely the whole team if gkrieg isn't scum. And he did make every single one of those votes like he meant it.
I'm kinda surprised to be defending him right now, but I actually think it's stupid to be lynching an active player with a decent change of just being a ramble/scramble newb!town.
We very likely have 2 town wagons.
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When we lynch the active players D1, we allow scum to lurk to victory every single game and also eliminate the players who are the most fun to play with. This is lame.
Assume we're both town for a moment. Whatever, that's honestly common D1. How do you analyze the wagons? Which would scum have preference on? If EFHW is town here, then all parties willing to attempt the SS wagon were town. What does that say about the people trying to prevent it? Would scum fight the creation of a third town wagon?
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Ok, caught up.
I don't share your pressimism. I feel pretty good about simon, and his behavior under pressure only makes that more true.
I like this case/compilation. I have observed the same thing, but to much extent just thought of it as silvers playstile. Being a bit aggressive and harsch and that it isn't alignment-indecative, but seeing at collected like this it's a bit damning. I mean, I can take that he calls my vote stupid and don't engage in the scumslip- discussion but he has apparently done similar things all day here.
I don't care if I become the lynch because of it, I don't want to lynch Galz now. vote: silver
(Have I voted everyone except II now?)
This gives me a deja-vu of how I behaved the first time I was scum (and was getting found out quickly) in ASoIaF mafia.
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In the end, I think simon is probably town :/
He's voted everyone except for me and gkrieg. So if he's town, he's guaranteed to have voted at least two scum, and likely the whole team if gkrieg isn't scum. And he did make every single one of those votes like he meant it.
I'm kinda surprised to be defending him right now, but I actually think it's stupid to be lynching an active player with a decent change of just being a ramble/scramble newb!town.
We very likely have 2 town wagons.
assuming you are town, I find that unlikely.
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When we lynch the active players D1, we allow scum to lurk to victory every single game and also eliminate the players who are the most fun to play with. This is lame.
Assume we're both town for a moment. Whatever, that's honestly common D1. How do you analyze the wagons? Which would scum have preference on? If EFHW is town here, then all parties willing to attempt the SS wagon were town. What does that say about the people trying to prevent it? Would scum fight the creation of a third town wagon?
This.
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I don't buy some big pieces of Galz's case on silver. I think Galz is just not really reading silver's comments in as Bayesian a sense as I think silver means them.
This is beautifully put.
Thanks! Now don't let me and my defence down by being scum after all, k? :-)
In related news, it's so much easier to get a picture of other players' tone and thinking having hung out with them IRL! That's just you and gkrieg for me this game, though..
PPE: more every time I try to hit "post"...
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In the end, I think simon is probably town :/
He's voted everyone except for me and gkrieg. So if he's town, he's guaranteed to have voted at least two scum, and likely the whole team if gkrieg isn't scum. And he did make every single one of those votes like he meant it.
I'm kinda surprised to be defending him right now, but I actually think it's stupid to be lynching an active player with a decent change of just being a ramble/scramble newb!town.
We very likely have 2 town wagons.
If you think they are both town, then vote for the player who you would expect to be better at tricking you! You have RECENTLY CONCLUDED GAMES where you refused to vote scum!Galz because you thought he was towny!
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Do we have anyone who is actually ready to hammer? We only have 10 minutes left.
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Do we have anyone who is actually ready to hammer? We only have 10 minutes left.
It would have to be II, Robz, Skumpy, or someone... TA I think?
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Do we have anyone who is actually ready to hammer? We only have 10 minutes left.
>:( maybe I'll flip a friggin coin on whether this goes to no lynch >:(
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Do we have anyone who is actually ready to hammer? We only have 10 minutes left.
It would have to be II, Robz, Skumpy, or someone... TA I think?
TA left.
Skumpy hasn't been here
Robz hasn't been here
So pretty much it is if II is gonna do it.
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I don't buy some big pieces of Galz's case on silver. I think Galz is just not really reading silver's comments in as Bayesian a sense as I think silver means them.
This is beautifully put.
Thanks! Now don't let me and my defence down by being scum after all, k? :-)
I won't.
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In the end, I think simon is probably town :/
He's voted everyone except for me and gkrieg. So if he's town, he's guaranteed to have voted at least two scum, and likely the whole team if gkrieg isn't scum. And he did make every single one of those votes like he meant it.
I'm kinda surprised to be defending him right now, but I actually think it's stupid to be lynching an active player with a decent change of just being a ramble/scramble newb!town.
We very likely have 2 town wagons.
If you think they are both town, then vote for the player who you would expect to be better at tricking you! You have RECENTLY CONCLUDED GAMES where you refused to vote scum!Galz because you thought he was towny!
Yes, I did think about that. I'm still here in case I need to switch.
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Do we have anyone who is actually ready to hammer? We only have 10 minutes left.
It would have to be II, Robz, Skumpy, or someone... TA I think?
TA left.
Skumpy hasn't been here
Robz hasn't been here
So pretty much it is if II is gonna do it.
I'm here sadly. Though I'm agreeing with Iguana more and more.
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Do we have anyone who is actually ready to hammer? We only have 10 minutes left.
>:( maybe I'll flip a friggin coin on whether this goes to no lynch >:(
no-lynch is nuts. If anything we'd make a switch happen.
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EFHW, I am appealing to you right now. SWITCH, so that I don't have to. Please
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Do we have anyone who is actually ready to hammer? We only have 10 minutes left.
>:( maybe I'll flip a friggin coin on whether this goes to no lynch >:(
Are you definitely that sure that Simon is town?
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Do we have anyone who is actually ready to hammer? We only have 10 minutes left.
>:( maybe I'll flip a friggin coin on whether this goes to no lynch >:(
Are you definitely that sure that Simon is town?
Of course not!
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vote: Galz
Ppe: begging from ii
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I like simon way more than galz. Don't switch.
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ugh no
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I will not claim, fwiw
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right now we just in the same spot
Get you vote back on Simon
At this point I would be half ok with speeding wagoning freekin II
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EFHW, I am appealing to you right now. SWITCH, so that I don't have to. Please
Even if EFHW switches, who's the hammer on Galz? It's currently 6 to Simon, 5 to Galz, and Raptor not here and not on either wagon...
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Isn't coming out with a case on someone 2 hours before the deadline a really odd thing for scum to do?
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EFHW, I am appealing to you right now. SWITCH, so that I don't have to. Please
Even if EFHW switches, who's the hammer on Galz? It's currently 6 to Simon, 5 to Galz, and Raptor not here and not on either wagon...
.. and I missed EFHW's PPE.
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I like simon way more than galz. Don't switch.
Iguana was making some sense about Simon
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They're both town : (
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Galz, will you claim VT or PR?
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What do you feel?
Vote Count 1.11
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13, Galzria
Galzria (6): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher, Simon Jester, EFHW
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in 5 minutes.
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Isn't coming out with a case on someone 2 hours before the deadline a really odd thing for scum to do?
No. You were never getting lynched.
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Isn't coming out with a case on someone 2 hours before the deadline a really odd thing for scum to do?
No. You were never getting lynched.
exactly!
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They're both town : (
Yup. Still trust the wagon on Galz more than the one on Simon.
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I like simon way more than galz. Don't switch.
Iguana was making some sense about Simon
We're both bad lynches, but what can one do?
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They're both town : (
If so, then what's wrong with leaving the strong and experienced player in the game to give town a better chance?
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as town you want to do it because you honestly believe in it. as scum ther'es no reaosn.
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They're both town : (
If so, then what's wrong with leaving the strong and experienced player in the game to give town a better chance?
HE'S THE BETTER LIAR!
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Vote: Simon
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They're both town : (
If so, then what's wrong with leaving the strong and experienced player in the game to give town a better chance?
Because maybe not.
as town you want to do it because you honestly believe in it. as scum ther'es no reaosn.
It can be a push for towniness on the line. Clearly you believe it. It's all WIFOM anyhow, let's be honest.
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Someone else switch
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Galz had no interaction D1 that we can use out side of SS and he is (no offense) going to be a stronger player as the game continues.
Other wagon had tons of interactions to look back on.
Assuming they are both town (for those saying it) - Simon is the WAy to go!
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Ok, hammer simon in the next minute or I hammer galz
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Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?
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What do you feel?
Vote Count 1.12
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (6): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13, Galzria, iguanaiguana
Galzria (5): Robz888, Skumpy, Twistedarcher, Simon Jester, EFHW
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in 3 minutes.
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II just switched. Someone hammer simon!
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1 minute left.. vote: galz
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Vote: Galz
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That was the worst ever
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Sorry, just missed
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vote: galz
Just in case.
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Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...
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THREAD LOCKED
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What do you feel now?
Vote Count 1.final
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (4): SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13, Galzria
Galzria (7): Robz888, Skumpy, Twistedarcher, Simon Jester, EFHW, silverspawn, iguanaiguana
With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch.
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You remembered your days in the kindergarten. Lots of children, grownups trying to tell you what to do, what not to do. You were always a good kid, you never offended little animals, you were always respectful to others. But you got yelled and yelled on and on. "Don't play your music when I am trying to sleep!" "Those pictures belong to the trash!" "Your poems are better never been heard of!"
You realized that was when you lost the ability to be Inspired.
Galzria was Inspired, Town 1-shot Roleblocker.
Have a good night. It will end in 46 hours, 15th of August at 5 pm FT.
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Here was a flavor text about how you can not be happy any more and that iIguanaiguana, the Town Mason, was killed.
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Wow that sucks.
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Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...
This is incredibly scummy.
vote: Skumpy
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Iguana's partner should claim in their first post.
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Iguana's dead. Shocker. I'd imagine the other mason claims, but I could be persuaded otherwise.
Simon's obviously unknown, but I'm still agreeing with Iguana posthumously, it's very pointed to a dual-town wagon. And if it's not, there's not many possibilities for the scum that's not bussing (though Raptor's activity the day of the lynch complicates matters).
@Skumpy What do my posts have to do with your voting TA?
I enjoy saying cryptic remarks, and explaining later.
Here's where I'm at right now.
I find Iguana very townie at this point. I haven't played with him much before, but he's active, and that counts for something. More than something. And furthermore, I like his posts, and I like the way he's playing. There's a lot he has going for him.
Now there's 2 possibilities.
1. I'm way, way wrong, and Iguana is in fact scum. I don't believe it now. But if it's true, this game will not go very smoothly.
2. I'm right, and Iguana is town. Iguana has posted so much at this point that people surely have to be townreading the lizard, right? No! Because by my count, only 3 have. And when you're scum, you want to be posting correct townreads D1 to gain credibility, and preferably on the most townie people. If Iguana is town, 3 other people here know this. I have to think that one is going to take notice of his talkative play and give him town status, or at least townie. Which doesn't leave many possibilities.
Both of those things together, it's seems to me highly likely there's a scum in {Iguana, ss, TA, Skumpy}. There's already an 86% chance of that, but whatever. And of that group, there's one I can't vote for, there's one I won't vote for, and there's one I'd be happy to vote for but would rather stick around longer because I pity it. So therefore, TA it is.
So that's me. Wrong? Possibly. Logical? I'd like to think so.
This + scum probably wants somebody on the Galz wagon, I have to do a Vote: TA.
PPE: gkrieg. Yay.
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Iguana's partner should claim in their first post.
I've never played with masons, i could believe in it.
Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...
This is incredibly scummy.
vote: Skumpy
Yeah, yeah, I know. Gotta type something in before the day ends, that's what comes to mind. I'm not really inclined to talk about it, but:
1) Why EFHW didn't vote in the 90 seconds I gave her, I don't know.
2) If I don't vote in the last minute, I look really scummy. So of course I'm going to vote after those 90 seconds.
That post was honest, I had the vote ready, hit preview, well never mind then. The panic was unnecessary.
I'm expecting the wagon on me pretty quick here, regardless. It's still as wrong as ever, nothing's changed. Ask me anything you want, all you're getting is straight up truthbombs.
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Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...
This is incredibly scummy.
vote: Skumpy
Note that I took 6 minutes to respond to 2 things just now. I don't ever post rushed things, I always proofread like 3 times and still let typos bleed through. So there's a very good reason why my posts look scummy close to deadline when I have to rush them. I already play with admittedly one of the scummiest tones of anyone in the game, I sometimes have had to make efforts as town to not look scummy.
Ok, floor is everybody else's.
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Also, for those who didn't read back after Galz's flip to see what the setup now sits at:
1-shot Roleblocker -> at least 2 B's = definitely exists a town roleblocker.
Iguana = Mason -> at least 1 M
So scum has at most 3 T's.
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Here's my breakdown likelihoods of each role independently being in the game:
frb: 1.000000
prb: 1.000000
mas0: 0.985838
pcop: 0.305260
pvig: 0.277856
pdoc: 0.176528
fdoc: 0.168456
fvig: 0.039087
UB: 0.014162
mas: 0.014162
fcop: 0.011046
The "p" is for partial, i.e. one-shot, and the "f" for full. The "mas0" is the mason case where there was a single "M" roll leading to conversion from UB to Mason, and the plain "mas" is the kind that comes from at least three M rolls.
This is based on an evaluation of the setup that I did ages ago. I'm confused about pdoc looking more likely that fdoc, though.. I need to check that out, given that pdoc should only happen in games with fdoc already present. But I'm assuming these numbers are broadly right at least.
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Ah, no, we're good. The unaccompanied pdocs come from "E" rolls :-)
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Here's my breakdown likelihoods of each role independently being in the game:
frb: 1.000000
prb: 1.000000
mas0: 0.985838
pcop: 0.305260
pvig: 0.277856
pdoc: 0.176528
fdoc: 0.168456
fvig: 0.039087
UB: 0.014162
mas: 0.014162
fcop: 0.011046
The "p" is for partial, i.e. one-shot, and the "f" for full. The "mas0" is the mason case where there was a single "M" roll leading to conversion from UB to Mason, and the plain "mas" is the kind that comes from at least three M rolls.
This is based on an evaluation of the setup that I did ages ago. I'm confused about pdoc looking more likely that fdoc, though.. I need to check that out, given that pdoc should only happen in games with fdoc already present. But I'm assuming these numbers are broadly right at least.
How do you get these numbers, if I may ask?
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Should the other Mason claim? Possibly. A Day 2 IC is decent.
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How do you get these numbers, if I may ask?
I wrote some code the first time I played this setup that produced a list of possible setups and their relative likelihoods. All that code saved was a list of lists of roles, and a vector of probabilities to go with them, which is what I used to get these, just by summing over probabilities of sets that contain all the known roles, and then each other role in turn.
If you're asking how I got the original vector, the script for that pretty much brute forces all possible letter combinations with their respective likelihoods, then gathers things together more tidily so that different rolls that would result in the same game setup are grouped together. What the code doesn't do is record all possible letter roll combinations that got there... I remember adding that into the version I modified for another 9+ setup, and it being a bit of a pain, so I resisted the urge to retrofit it to this one!
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How do you get these numbers, if I may ask?
I wrote some code the first time I played this setup that produced a list of possible setups and their relative likelihoods. All that code saved was a list of lists of roles, and a vector of probabilities to go with them, which is what I used to get these, just by summing over probabilities of sets that contain all the known roles, and then each other role in turn.
If you're asking how I got the original vector, the script for that pretty much brute forces all possible letter combinations with their respective likelihoods, then gathers things together more tidily so that different rolls that would result in the same game setup are grouped together. What the code doesn't do is record all possible letter roll combinations that got there... I remember adding that into the version I modified for another 9+ setup, and it being a bit of a pain, so I resisted the urge to retrofit it to this one!
I don't think it works quite that nicely here, though it doesn't affect final probabilities that significantly. The 'given that the first role flipped was X and given that the second role flipped was Y' changes things and makes more non-T's more likely.
Should the other Mason claim? Possibly. A Day 2 IC is decent.
And D3 is better, until it gets CC'd. I honestly don't know, just playing devil's advocate.
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Should the other Mason claim? Possibly. A Day 2 IC is decent.
I guess the other option is to leave them to be a D3 IC and lead some kind of massclaim. D2 is usually too early for that. I suspect the scums are more likely to want to hit the known RB rather than the known mason.
Note that while we know for sure that there's a full RB in the game, there's actually a 0.7% chance of having two of them, so we can't necessarily IC anyone that way.
PPE 1
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I don't think it works quite that nicely here, though it doesn't affect final probabilities that significantly. The 'given that the first role flipped was X and given that the second role flipped was Y' changes things and makes more non-T's more likely.
I think what you're saying is that given the new information that we've seen two PRs in two flips, you think we have evidence that there is a high number of PRs in the game. That would certainly be something to consider if the flips we saw were independent of the roles, but that's definitely not the case.It's possible we've just lost PRs early because they had PR-tells that someone on the scumteam read.
It's still correct that the likelihoods I've quoted are the prior probabilities of each roll appearing at least once in the setup LL has rolled for us.
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Should the other Mason claim? Possibly. A Day 2 IC is decent.
I guess the other option is to leave them to be a D3 IC and lead some kind of massclaim. D2 is usually too early for that. I suspect the scums are more likely to want to hit the known RB rather than the known mason.
Note that while we know for sure that there's a full RB in the game, there's actually a 0.7% chance of having two of them, so we can't necessarily IC anyone that way.
PPE 1
A Day 3 IC is of course better, except that scum can counterclaim a Day 3 IC with greater confidence of success.
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I don't think it works quite that nicely here, though it doesn't affect final probabilities that significantly. The 'given that the first role flipped was X and given that the second role flipped was Y' changes things and makes more non-T's more likely.
I think what you're saying is that given the new information that we've seen two PRs in two flips, you think we have evidence that there is a high number of PRs in the game. That would certainly be something to consider if the flips we saw were independent of the roles, but that's definitely not the case.It's possible we've just lost PRs early because they had PR-tells that someone on the scumteam read.
It's still correct that the likelihoods I've quoted are the prior probabilities of each roll appearing at least once in the setup LL has rolled for us.
Not sure about that.
It's a little Monty Hall-esque in the sense that if there's a bunch of PR's hiding behind doors, you're more likely to stumble upon them when you start opening doors than if there were fewer. If there are indeed only the 4 known PR's, then it's harder to find them first because there are fewer options to be right, as opposed to 5 or 6. And I do believe in independence, certainly for Galz, and close enough for Iguana. In fact, if anything, super-independent for Galz because not claiming makes me lean more towards VT than PR.
Without much simulation experience admittedly, I'd imagine it would be a bit more accurate to assign specific players roles after the dice rolls, and after seeing flips, narrow down the possibilities to those specifically involving 'Player A was X' and 'Player B was Y'. But that does seem very inefficient and cumbersome, and again, it doesn't changes the probabilities a lot.
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I'm vla until Sat, but will try to catch up now.
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I'd rather have an IC today.
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A bunch of people haven't posted yet. Silver, raptor, simon, DatSwan, TA.
I don't agree with skumpy's reasoning about looking for scum among people townreading iguana. It's an interesting idea, but not enough. Was there more on TA motivating your vote?
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OK so before anything - there are back to back Vote Counts labeled as 1.11 and it cost me roughly an hour of my life trying to figure out why I was insane while I went through all of this. Kidding, but not :P but also it is back to back 1.11's.
Ahem...
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.
2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)
*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*
3) Yes, there has to be a multi-shot RB since Galz flipped 1-Shot RB.
4) Mason should not claim today. Dumb. Math is fun, just do it. In Town's worst case scenario (albeit, given said mason is not lynched or killed), their claim value tomorrow is way more valuable tomorrow than it is today.
5) VCA from yesterday
There are two different ways to look at the actions of yesterday. We now know that Galz was Town (less important), but we also know that II was Town. At the end of the day, there was a lot of non movement, followed by a lot of movement. I need to go and break down how the Galz wagon pick up to begin with piece by piece, but towards the end I have it down. Here where we were are at 1.11:
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (6): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13, Galzria, EFHW
Galzria (5): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher, Simon Jester
We know that Galz and II are Town and that XXR wasn't moving. The day draws very very close to end and no one wants to jump any ship. It would either take 2 people out of SS, Space, Swan, JK, EFHW to hammer Galz... or 1 person out of Robz, II, Skumpy, TA to hammer Simon.
I am going to go ahead and remove myself from my own logic moving forward, feel free to re do it under a difference precedent.
At this point there are two pools of players:
1) The players on Simon [SS, Space, GK, EFHW]
2) The players on Galz [Robz, Skumpy, TA]
From my PoV there are 4 unknowns on 1 wagon, and 3 unknowns on the other. So I find it unlikely... like extremely unlikely... that all three skum are on the same wagon at this point. I am not ready to yet dive into "how many on each" so for now, I am just going with there is at least 1 on each (also the XXR factor to be potentially added in).
At 1.11 - Any of Robz, Skumpy, or TA could of switched onto Simon and hammered them. This obv did not happen. Also not to be forgotten, unknown to the time Town!II could of hammered as well.
At 1.11 - 2 of any out of SS, Space, GK, EFHW could of collectively hammered Town!Galz.
--- Here is the fun part. At this point in time, Robz had been absent with no intent of joining. Also TA had just "had enough" with the False New nonsense and said they were out. So, from any earning town PoV (or skum for that matter), neither of those players were moving.
Pay attention boys and girls, this is where shit gets fun...
My above note is not speculation, getting ahead of that now. Robz had been Semi VLA like the entire game and there was no reason to believe he was to be here at the DL. Even if he "was expected" we are talking about a matter of 16 minutes at this point. I am torn on the TA-bailing thing because I both think that was a weak-ass move but also it makes my skin curl whenever anyone uses the phrase "Fake News". Either way - important note is that assuming from a Town POV - neither of them were coming back.
This leaves exactly one player left capable of hammering Simon - Skumpster.
Then, we have me and SS stating we do not want to go over to Galz, and there is some speculation stuff and whatever you can go and read it yourself... and then... EFHW switches over to Galz (super weakly I might add) due to "Town!II making a good statement".
This flips the wagon. Now it is 1.12 (or 1.11x2)
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13, Galzria
Galzria (6): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher, Simon Jester, EFHW
So at this point, after the EFHW switch we have a brief period of time in which Galz was L-1 (like less than 3 minutes). Now, what makes it fun is that II switched off onto Simon (but since we know Galz and II were both Town this means about dick). However, when II switches to Galz, it flips the wagon back to Simon L-1 and Galz L-2.
NOWWWWWWW, of the active players, either Skumpy OR EFHW can hammer Simon.
Instead what happens is SS says "if no one hammers Simon in the next minute I will hammer Galz". Then, if they didn't already know, there was an updated VC showing that Galz was L-2, in addition to my statement "Someone hammer Simon". Not to mention the numerous point outs of how the hammer situation was not the same in many messages prior given the switches. Then SS voted anyways. And then of course II hammered which I wasted 2 days of paranoia on.... but they flipped Town.
So here is where I am at. We know II and Galz are Town, and we know who was present and not. We can deal with the present vs the not present later - because whether the not present were skum or town, if skum knew they were not present they would still act accordingly and town would have to do so as well. This obv gives skum the upper hand, but again, we can do better speculation now than on that concept.
I would like to focus that speculation on Simon, SilverSpawn and EFHW.
with one speculation.
If Skum knew that some of the absent players were in fact skum, they would of had to move accordingly (only important if it was a town vs town wagon). But, still to be considered. At the end of it, Simon is probably skum. But the most reliable choice is SS.
Simon was the other major wagon, so I tend to take a lot of that person's actions out of the equasion because good town will do anything to stay alive.
EFHW did the weird switch back and forth thing, which is skummy af and they need to be looked at (and if SS gets lynched and is town it is like 100% efhw)... but, if SS is skum and EFHW is town then EFHW would be choosing between two unknown wagons just trying to push the lynch through.
SS is just skummy as hell. The random "IDK its not hammer hammer", the timing of votes, just like everything. Not to mention conf!Town Galz top skum read.
Vote: SilverSpawn
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A bunch of people haven't posted yet. Silver, raptor, simon, DatSwan, TA.
I don't agree with skumpy's reasoning about looking for scum among people townreading iguana. It's an interesting idea, but not enough. Was there more on TA motivating your vote?
And also I'd imagine there's scum pushing Galz. Not Iguana, not me, I still feel there's evidence pointing away from Simon (I definitely don't feel like scum!Simon wants to deflect from the Galz wagon; could be wrong). So unless no scum was on the main push for Galz, which I suppose is also a possibility, that leaves Robz and TA for me. But I shouldn't be hasty, especially after my D1 performance. There's a lot of day left, and lot of discussion to happen, and I should do a reread of D1. Maybe right now's a good time for that.
Unvote
I'd rather have an IC today.
If that's the case, is it worth considering having the RB claim as well? Either 2 IC's or we get some 1 v 1's. It would be devastating if we guess wrong on them, could be fantastic if we guess right since either an IC's alive D3 or we have another 1 v 1. I don't know what good a roleblocker does at this point, we're only 1 non-T roll away from a perpetual strongman. There's a lot of things that have to happen right for the roleblock to be effective and buy us an extra day, namely finding the strongman, getting a correct roleblock, and the scum roleblocker not getting in the way of town roleblocker, if that's a thing. That would be amazing if all those things happened; I'm not banking on it. The risky approach is to go with that, the safe approach is to simplify into the endgame. If there are 2 1v1's for the Mason and the RB, and we guess right on 1 but not the other initially, we get 2 correct lynches out of 3 and lose 3 town at night, bringing us down to a 3 v 1, which gives us a reasonable shot. Plus potentially more unclaimed PRs.
So yeah; I guess I'm in favor then of narrowing the lynch pool? I'll wait for everyone else, before I claim (no, my talking is not necessarily indicative of VT), but I'll go on the record with an RB should claim, Mason should claim
Also, Lalight, is there an RB priority order?
PPE: Lots of Swan
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What is a 'Mason shot'? You know what a mason is....
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there are no upper cases in my name plx. Let alone 2. it looks so horrible.
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gtg, I read your post, I don't understand how you come from the analysis to the conclusion that I'm scum at all, but I might have misread something. Will read again and comment later.
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Responding to Swan's stuff:
'XXR wasn't moving' - I still want to know why that's the case when he did check in that day. That's still a very important point.
'Only one who could hammer Simon was Skumpster' - Incorrect, because II could, for whatever that's worth.
To be clear about my actions after Iguana flipped: I gave EFHW the chance to go back to her preferred wagon before I made the hammer myself, which I planned to do at :59. Sixty seconds is plenty of time when I have the vote written and I'm hitting preview, though I suppose nobody was aware I was doing that at the time. I'm not going to hold EFHW's non-vote against her as a partner sign with Simon, thats too obvious, and makes little sense when she picked him over Galz at 5-5.
The thing is, Swan: None of that is relevant if Simon is town. Townies want to try to stick to their intended targets and avoid swerving as long as possible until they give in to the 'Chicken Game' and flip. If scum doesn't care who gets lynched, they can easily replicate that behavior. So it's all null. And if Simon is scum, why do you not want to lynch off-wagon? Or on Simon himself? ss certainly stayed on the Simon wagon for a while. Doesn't make him town, especially if Simon is, but it's not a great case against him yet.
there are no upper cases in my name plx. Let alone 2. it looks so horrible.
I've done the same, Swan, don't feel too bad.
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Also, Lalight, is there an RB priority order?
Scum RB takes priority over town!rb. Town!rbs resolve in an order of making order timewise.
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I should do a reread of D1. Maybe right now's a good time for that.
This didn't happen. Sorry.
If that's the case, is it worth considering having the RB claim as well? Either 2 IC's or we get some 1 v 1's. It would be devastating if we guess wrong on them, could be fantastic if we guess right since either an IC's alive D3 or we have another 1 v 1. I don't know what good a roleblocker does at this point, we're only 1 non-T roll away from a perpetual strongman. There's a lot of things that have to happen right for the roleblock to be effective and buy us an extra day, namely finding the strongman, getting a correct roleblock, and the scum roleblocker not getting in the way of town roleblocker, if that's a thing. That would be amazing if all those things happened; I'm not banking on it. The risky approach is to go with that, the safe approach is to simplify into the endgame. If there are 2 1v1's for the Mason and the RB, and we guess right on 1 but not the other initially, we get 2 correct lynches out of 3 and lose 3 town at night, bringing us down to a 3 v 1, which gives us a reasonable shot. Plus potentially more unclaimed PRs.
So yeah; I guess I'm in favor then of narrowing the lynch pool? I'll wait for everyone else, before I claim (no, my talking is not necessarily indicative of VT), but I'll go on the record with an RB should claim, Mason should claim
Actually, I'm tabling that opinion in the last paragraph for now. I didn't think it through well enough.
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Just writing to say I'm here. Still trying to understand what happened the previous day and how it could be that I'm still alive. That was an odd deadline..
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Ok I reread it and I still don't understand the argument. I wanted one player to be lynched, I waited until literally less than a minute time left trying to make it happen, then I switched and got the other guy lynched, who was town. So... ???
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So...
I know it was in fact a town versus town situation yesterday. Before we went for Galz we had a wagon stuck for TA for quite a long time, when it didn't lead anywhere it got switched. I think that was a mistake.
vote: TA
I think I would prefer if the second mason claimed today.
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I think the RB should absolutely not claim at this point.
If that's the case, is it worth considering having the RB claim as well?
I think you might have missed the following:
Note that while we know for sure that there's a full RB in the game, there's actually a 0.7% chance of having two of them, so we can't necessarily IC anyone that way.
... and that's a 0.7% prior probability, so anyone who's convinced we have strong evidence of more town roles than average existing in this game should think that that number will be rather higher in the current posterior distribution.
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Not sure about that.
Um.. how much do you know about Bayesian stuff? The numbers I've posted are from the prior distribution, marginalised over the still-available roles.
Your lack of certainty comes from wanting to turn it into a posterior distribution by inferring something about the number of roles in the game based on the fact that both of the first two flips were town PRs. Yes, that posterior distribution will be an updated version of the prior, but that's not what I'm claiming to have provided.
I really don't think the roles we've seen so far are selected at random from the pool of townies, because in II's case, he was almost certainly killed for being active, engaged and widely town-read, and he may well not have played that way had he actually been a VT or a scum. That uncertainty is why I'm not currently trying to put weights on the likelihood of being in a set-up of 4, 5, 6 or 7 players specifically to get some kind of posterior. Well, that and the fact that by going that far, I may also want to fold in info about people's metas and current playing styles, and then it gets too subjective to be worth sharing in a quantitative sense. Also, my lunch break should be over by now :-P
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Swan, Masons do not shoot.
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Swan, Masons do not shoot.
Scum are masons tha shoot
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Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?
Why didn't you just do it?
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Ok, hammer simon in the next minute or I hammer galz
silver, why did you say this? Enough people were present to prevent a no lynch, snd you couldn't hammer anyway.
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It should pretty clear given my late move from the silver wagon that I had no agenda towards Galz or simon. I was just trying to help us get a lynch. When I put simon to L1, no one hammered. Why was that?
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Then I put Galz at L1 and again no one hammered! Were people so convinced their choices were correct? There weren't really cases on either of them.
One thought is that a good number of the people present were scum while both wagons were on town. Scum didn't care which wagon went to lynch, and no lynch was ok with them as well. That points to DatSwan, skumpy, silver. Space came in late, could have been lurking.
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What is a 'Mason shot'? You know what a mason is....
I was reading Neighborizor where as Mason, that's mb.
There is obv another mason then.
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OTOH, everyone present seemed pretty worried about no lynch. They just wanted other people to do the switching required. So, if you are town, what made your scumreads so strong? I'm interested to hear from each person who could have hammered simon or Galz. How did you decide not to?
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Responding to Swan's stuff:
'XXR wasn't moving' - I still want to know why that's the case when he did check in that day. That's still a very important point.
'Only one who could hammer Simon was Skumpster' - Incorrect, because II could, for whatever that's worth.
To be clear about my actions after Iguana flipped: I gave EFHW the chance to go back to her preferred wagon before I made the hammer myself, which I planned to do at :59. Sixty seconds is plenty of time when I have the vote written and I'm hitting preview, though I suppose nobody was aware I was doing that at the time. I'm not going to hold EFHW's non-vote against her as a partner sign with Simon, thats too obvious, and makes little sense when she picked him over Galz at 5-5.
The thing is, Swan: None of that is relevant if Simon is town. Townies want to try to stick to their intended targets and avoid swerving as long as possible until they give in to the 'Chicken Game' and flip. If scum doesn't care who gets lynched, they can easily replicate that behavior. So it's all null. And if Simon is scum, why do you not want to lynch off-wagon? Or on Simon himself? ss certainly stayed on the Simon wagon for a while. Doesn't make him town, especially if Simon is, but it's not a great case against him yet.
there are no upper cases in my name plx. Let alone 2. it looks so horrible.
I've done the same, Swan, don't feel too bad.
I don't think Raptor checked in that day? I could be wrong but I believe he was in a no service zone like almost all the way through N1.
Yes if it was town v town wagon then obviously it doesn't give skum a whole lot of reason to panic and etc... which is kind of my point for wanting to not lynch Simon I guess. The way the day played out, guess both Galz and Simon could be Town. I like the concept of isolating the wagon in this instance, seems pretty sustainable. I thought Simon and silverspawn were skummy (or as skummy as one can be on D1) yesterday, and the end of day actions make me think moreso. So silver it is for now.
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One thought is that a good number of the people present were scum while both wagons were on town. Scum didn't care which wagon went to lynch, and no lynch was ok with them as well. That points to DatSwan, skumpy, silver. Space came in late, could have been lurking.
Surely if lots of people present were scum, then they'd be more likely to make up a flimsy reason to hammer, rather than sticking to their guns.
I don't know what you mean about "Space came in late" -- I was around and posting consistently from about half an hour before deadline. However, I was also one of the people scureading Simon and I'd stated that Galz was not someone I was interested in voting D1 (see post #258), so it should have been clear to anyone there that I wasn't really willing to switch.
I didn't want any voting shenanigans to mess things in the end (false hammers etc -- there was a lot going on and loads of PPEs), so I cast a last-second L+1-style vote to avoid all possibility of a no-lynch.
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OTOH, everyone present seemed pretty worried about no lynch. They just wanted other people to do the switching required. So, if you are town, what made your scumreads so strong? I'm interested to hear from each person who could have hammered simon or Galz. How did you decide not to?
I could have hammered Galz, but had no scuread on him, and had stated unwillingness to vote him. Even if I was only reading Simon as mildly scummy, because of a bit of flail in regard to the "scumslip" thing (and general omgus, and the fact that D1 scumreads are generally vague), the contrast between that scumread and a null-townread on Galz (plus meta and the fact I'd already said I'd rather not vote there) meant it wasn't exactly a big dilemma.
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If you want to scrutinise people for not hammering, I think it really matters which person they didn't hammer, and why.
As for avoiding no-lynch, I'm never sure about that one. I think I'm almost as concerned about the meta, and how it influences others' reads, as I am about the direct consequences. Of course if we don't lynch, we lose our only mechanism in for killing off scums, and we have a pretty small finite number of chances over the course of the game. OTOH, if people are really convinced with 10 minutes to go till deadline that the only possible options are townies, it hardly seems likely that killing a super-high-confidence townie is the right answer. For now, I'm erring on the side of making sure a lynch goes through.
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I think the RB should absolutely not claim at this point.
If that's the case, is it worth considering having the RB claim as well?
I think you might have missed the following:
Note that while we know for sure that there's a full RB in the game, there's actually a 0.7% chance of having two of them, so we can't necessarily IC anyone that way.
... and that's a 0.7% prior probability, so anyone who's convinced we have strong evidence of more town roles than average existing in this game should think that that number will be rather higher in the current posterior distribution.
There are reasons for an RB to not claim, but this is not one of the more crucial reasons. I'm not too worried about a <1/50 chance, or however much it ends up being.
Not sure about that.
Um.. how much do you know about Bayesian stuff? The numbers I've posted are from the prior distribution, marginalised over the still-available roles.
Your lack of certainty comes from wanting to turn it into a posterior distribution by inferring something about the number of roles in the game based on the fact that both of the first two flips were town PRs. Yes, that posterior distribution will be an updated version of the prior, but that's not what I'm claiming to have provided.
I really don't think the roles we've seen so far are selected at random from the pool of townies, because in II's case, he was almost certainly killed for being active, engaged and widely town-read, and he may well not have played that way had he actually been a VT or a scum. That uncertainty is why I'm not currently trying to put weights on the likelihood of being in a set-up of 4, 5, 6 or 7 players specifically to get some kind of posterior. Well, that and the fact that by going that far, I may also want to fold in info about people's metas and current playing styles, and then it gets too subjective to be worth sharing in a quantitative sense. Also, my lunch break should be over by now :-P
OK, we're on the same page then. Minus the PR hunting because it always seems like more of a shot in the dark than anything else to me, but it's no matter.
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There are reasons for an RB to not claim, but this is not one of the more crucial reasons. I'm not too worried about a <1/50 chance, or however much it ends up being.
Okay, let's put this another way: given that we know we have II's partner out there able to come forward and be a 100% guaranteed IC or 1v1, and who has at this point no town-useful role save perhaps some stored-up Iguana-wisdom, what is the point in outing a useful town PR who wouldn't necessarily be a unique IC?
In a scenario where we have two town RBs, do we end up lynching one or both of them because you've primed us to think about 1-v-1s?
In a scenario with only one RB, is it a good idea to come forward, out a good town PR, and not necessarily be believed as IC? Or is it better to stay quiet at the moment and risk being disbelieved later because someone turned up the pressure too much too early?
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Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?
Why didn't you just do it?
Because I'm not a hammerer when I don't need to be. And I didn't need to be yet because you were there.
OTOH, everyone present seemed pretty worried about no lynch. They just wanted other people to do the switching required. So, if you are town, what made your scumreads so strong? I'm interested to hear from each person who could have hammered simon or Galz. How did you decide not to?
Because even though I was pretty sure both were town, I was more sold on Simon than Galz. And when you do have a slight scumread on someone, as I had prior to that realization, you want to see who's going to flip to make the lynch happen. So I tried to stick, and almost did break except ss broke first.
Reasons I had at the time for Simon being town included: his efforts to get on the ss wagon, which seems more likely to come from town trying to find scum than scum trying to stay alive, and the wagon as a whole, since I had more faith there was town on Galz's wagon than Simon's. Mostly because of Iguana, but there would have likely been 2 scum in {Simon, Robz, TA}, which didn't seem like the best possibility.
Again: If Simon is town, I don't think there's much to be learned from the end of day non-hammers.
PPE: Space
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Then I put Galz at L1 and again no one hammered! Were people so convinced their choices were correct? There weren't really cases on either of them.
One thought is that a good number of the people present were scum while both wagons were on town. Scum didn't care which wagon went to lynch, and no lynch was ok with them as well. That points to DatSwan, skumpy, silver. Space came in late, could have been lurking.
Excuse me, that doesn't point to me at all. I had a clear preference and waited literally until a minute left before I gave up my preference to ENSURE that there was a lynch. I'm well aware that my reads aren't good enough to make no-lynch preferable, and I played accordingly.
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and skumpy, I think you claimed that you deliberately waited until less than a minute was left. The lesson to draw here is DON'T DO THAT. There are so many things that could go wrong. Maybe someone misspells a name. Maybe someone forgets the colon or the whitespace. No plan should ever include waiting until less than a minute.
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so @DatSwan, I was actually being literate when I said I don't undestand how your post comes to the conclusion that I'm scummy. I don't understand what you are accusing me of having done. I'm particularly interested in hearing what you think I did wasn't pro town.
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And while I'm at it, having re-read the EoD1 again, EFHW comes out looking by far the scummiest there, especially given how she's since painted herself as having handed out opportunities to everyone to hammer both sides... (see #495, #496).
@EFHW, your reason for voting Galz was that "Iguana said". However, you had the opportunity to hammer Simon after Iguana switched at #440, but you didn't take it. Instead, you went mysteriously quiet, even though the vote count a few posts later made the position very clear. Why is that?
PPE 4
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Okay, let's put this another way: given that we know we have II's partner out there able to come forward and be a 100% guaranteed IC or 1v1, and who has at this point no town-useful role save perhaps some stored-up Iguana-wisdom, what is the point in outing a useful town PR who wouldn't necessarily be a unique IC?\
Is there a rule against quoting non-mod stuff from a QT? Or at least paraphrasing? If not, couldn't the mason just reference posts from the Iguana discussion, which is probably tough enough to CC? The point of outing a PR would be to make sure that we either get one of these IC's alive to D3 or get a guaranteed scum lynch if we mislynch, which is obviously the less desired outcome.
In a scenario where we have two town RBs, do we end up lynching one or both of them because you've primed us to think about 1-v-1s?
Yes, because there's such a low percentage of that. If this exact scenario was to appear dozens of times, and we lose the game once as a direct result of thinking there was only 1 town RB, I'm fine with that. Just because something could be the case doesn't mean we should treat it as a realistic possibility.
In a scenario with only one RB, is it a good idea to come forward, out a good town PR, and not necessarily be believed as IC? Or is it better to stay quiet at the moment and risk being disbelieved later because someone turned up the pressure too much too early?
'Good town PR' is very relative. I don't expect to see any useful RB's happening, since there's probably a full strongman plus a scum RBer crawling around. 'Not necessarily believed': Either they get CC'd or they don't.
It could very well be that it's more useful later. But if that's the case, then the mason probably shouldn't claim either. Here's the other thing you have to remember: not claiming doesn't guarantee both, or even just one, make it to D3 alive. If the lead wagon ends up being on a PR and they have to claim to save themselves, then that's a waste. And scum probably has some ideas on who they are as well, and can push that lynch and/or aim the NK. Something to salvage while we stlil can? I don't know!
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Okay, let's put this another way: given that we know we have II's partner out there able to come forward and be a 100% guaranteed IC or 1v1, and who has at this point no town-useful role save perhaps some stored-up Iguana-wisdom, what is the point in outing a useful town PR who wouldn't necessarily be a unique IC?\
Is there a rule against quoting non-mod stuff from a QT? Or at least paraphrasing? If not, couldn't the mason just reference posts from the Iguana discussion, which is probably tough enough to CC? The point of outing a PR would be to make sure that we either get one of these IC's alive to D3 or get a guaranteed scum lynch if we mislynch, which is obviously the less desired outcome.
Definitely a rule against quoting, I do not want to have this discussion again. If scum want to fakeclaim mason, having to come up with stuff that sounds like iguana is way too hard, so is prohibited.
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and skumpy, I think you claimed that you deliberately waited until less than a minute was left. The lesson to draw here is DON'T DO THAT. There are so many things that could go wrong. Maybe someone misspells a name. Maybe someone forgets the colon or the whitespace. No plan should ever include waiting until less than a minute.
I didn't start typing until there was less than a minute left, a minute left was when I started spamming 'preview'. The worst thing that can happen is exactly what happened; namely, you flipped. But you raise good points all the same; I hereby promise that every future time I pull this stunt, it shall happen with two minutes left.
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Okay, let's put this another way: given that we know we have II's partner out there able to come forward and be a 100% guaranteed IC or 1v1, and who has at this point no town-useful role save perhaps some stored-up Iguana-wisdom, what is the point in outing a useful town PR who wouldn't necessarily be a unique IC?\
Is there a rule against quoting non-mod stuff from a QT? Or at least paraphrasing? If not, couldn't the mason just reference posts from the Iguana discussion, which is probably tough enough to CC? The point of outing a PR would be to make sure that we either get one of these IC's alive to D3 or get a guaranteed scum lynch if we mislynch, which is obviously the less desired outcome.
Definitely a rule against quoting, I do not want to have this discussion again. If scum want to fakeclaim mason, having to come up with stuff that sounds like iguana is way too hard, so is prohibited.
No paraphrasing allowed either?
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and skumpy, I think you claimed that you deliberately waited until less than a minute was left. The lesson to draw here is DON'T DO THAT. There are so many things that could go wrong. Maybe someone misspells a name. Maybe someone forgets the colon or the whitespace. No plan should ever include waiting until less than a minute.
I didn't start typing until there was less than a minute left, a minute left was when I started spamming 'preview'. The worst thing that can happen is exactly what happened; namely, you flipped. But you raise good points all the same; I hereby promise that every future time I pull this stunt, it shall happen with two minutes left.
Typo: I didn't starting typing WHEN there was less than a minute left, yadda yadda yadda.
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And while I'm at it, having re-read the EoD1 again, EFHW comes out looking by far the scummiest there, especially given how she's since painted herself as having handed out opportunities to everyone to hammer both sides... (see #495, #496).
It may be a case of too scummy to be scum. On the other hand, if simon was mafia, there was quite a lot at stake. I think I agree.
I'm probably the only one who wants to lynch simon. I don't understand where all this "town vs town" talk is coming from. It looked to me like a town vs scum wagon.
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and skumpy, I think you claimed that you deliberately waited until less than a minute was left. The lesson to draw here is DON'T DO THAT. There are so many things that could go wrong. Maybe someone misspells a name. Maybe someone forgets the colon or the whitespace. No plan should ever include waiting until less than a minute.
I didn't start typing until there was less than a minute left, a minute left was when I started spamming 'preview'. The worst thing that can happen is exactly what happened; namely, you flipped. But you raise good points all the same; I hereby promise that every future time I pull this stunt, it shall happen with two minutes left.
Typo: I didn't starting typing WHEN there was less than a minute left, yadda yadda yadda.
That's fine. I don't scumread you for it, I think.
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let's try. vote: simon
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Seems like an interesting end of D1, bummed that I missed it. I’m going to read though it again and trying to figure out if who I think is scummy based on the time stamps. I’ll post more content tonight.
Swan and I also have a big event on Saturday, maybe a bit busy still then.
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And while I'm at it, having re-read the EoD1 again, EFHW comes out looking by far the scummiest there, especially given how she's since painted herself as having handed out opportunities to everyone to hammer both sides... (see #495, #496).
@EFHW, your reason for voting Galz was that "Iguana said". However, you had the opportunity to hammer Simon after Iguana switched at #440, but you didn't take it. Instead, you went mysteriously quiet, even though the vote count a few posts later made the position very clear. Why is that?
PPE 4
I switched because no one was hammering. Iguana's point was reinforcing of the decision. I didn't hammer later because someone started talking to me irl and then I had to catch up to figure out what people were doing and why.
I don't see why you are mocking my factual comments that I put each person to L1 and no one hammered either time.
I realized later that you didn't come in late. Sorry. That was just how I remembered it for some reason.
I think it is informative to hear how people were deciding what to do. Everyone is on the defensive suddenly!
It seems like DatSwan had info about raptor the rest of us didn't. Unavoidable but a factor to consider.
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Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?
Why didn't you just do it?
Because I'm not a hammerer when I don't need to be. And I didn't need to be yet because you were there.
OTOH, everyone present seemed pretty worried about no lynch. They just wanted other people to do the switching required. So, if you are town, what made your scumreads so strong? I'm interested to hear from each person who could have hammered simon or Galz. How did you decide not to?
Because even though I was pretty sure both were town, I was more sold on Simon than Galz. And when you do have a slight scumread on someone, as I had prior to that realization, you want to see who's going to flip to make the lynch happen. So I tried to stick, and almost did break except ss broke first.
Reasons I had at the time for Simon being town included: his efforts to get on the ss wagon, which seems more likely to come from town trying to find scum than scum trying to stay alive, and the wagon as a whole, since I had more faith there was town on Galz's wagon than Simon's. Mostly because of Iguana, but there would have likely been 2 scum in {Simon, Robz, TA}, which didn't seem like the best possibility.
Again: If Simon is town, I don't think there's much to be learned from the end of day non-hammers.
PPE: Space
If we knew simon was town then there would still be things to learn from the nonhammerers. Since we don't know, why dismiss the question?
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Iguana's point contributed to my feeling both wagons were on town.
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Vote: skumpy because of the timing of his votes as well as over all tone in the game (nothing new right?)
Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?
why wouldn't you just do it yourself?
Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...
convenient that with less then a minute you were ready to switch off the wagon.
Responding to Swan's stuff:
'XXR wasn't moving' - I still want to know why that's the case when he did check in that day. That's still a very important point.
I think that you are miss remembering me there. I was VLA for through N1.
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What do you feel now?
Vote Count 2.1
Skumpy (2): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (1): DatSwan
Twistedarcher (1): Simon Jester
Simon Jester (1): silverspawn
Not Voting: (5) Robz888, Twistedarcher, EFHW, SpaceAnemone, Skumpy
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm.
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Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?
Why didn't you just do it?
Because I'm not a hammerer when I don't need to be. And I didn't need to be yet because you were there.
OTOH, everyone present seemed pretty worried about no lynch. They just wanted other people to do the switching required. So, if you are town, what made your scumreads so strong? I'm interested to hear from each person who could have hammered simon or Galz. How did you decide not to?
Because even though I was pretty sure both were town, I was more sold on Simon than Galz. And when you do have a slight scumread on someone, as I had prior to that realization, you want to see who's going to flip to make the lynch happen. So I tried to stick, and almost did break except ss broke first.
Reasons I had at the time for Simon being town included: his efforts to get on the ss wagon, which seems more likely to come from town trying to find scum than scum trying to stay alive, and the wagon as a whole, since I had more faith there was town on Galz's wagon than Simon's. Mostly because of Iguana, but there would have likely been 2 scum in {Simon, Robz, TA}, which didn't seem like the best possibility.
Again: If Simon is town, I don't think there's much to be learned from the end of day non-hammers.
PPE: Space
If we knew simon was town then there would still be things to learn from the nonhammerers. Since we don't know, why dismiss the question?
Because the nonhammerers present were me and Iguana. You know one's town, you'll find out the other is town.
The amount of evidence in favor of Simon is so overwhelming, I find it strange ss still wants to vote there. If he is scum, he needs two partners. EFHW/Simon isn't a thing. Simon/ss isn't a thing. Skumpy/Simon isn't a thing. That's already a big reduction in the number of people who he could be partnered with. And that's just me being cursory, I could've probably done better. Iguana made a better case for him that I can.
I think that you are miss remembering me there. I was VLA for through N1.
Raptor: I saw your name that Tuesday afternoon. 'Who's Online' doesn't lie.
FOS to everyone not actively moving us to a lynch. There’s a lot of people who still have their votes in useless places 2.5 hours to deadline, and some of these people have come in and posted and not moved their votes.
This. Also going to extend it to Raptor for showing up and not moving his vote.
Note the timestamp. This is only a few hours before the lynch takes place. Why would I lie about something and give the other 10 people online at the time the chance to doublecheck my work and find out about my deception? So if you're going to continue to maintain that you did not open a browser and look at the forums during this period, I have no choice but to either report a bug to the forum moderator or vote you now. So for that, for the fact that your game is a far cry from NM11, and for cherrypicking the easiest case possible against me (something I saw you do as scum 1 year ago - do you know better now, I don't know):
Vote: Raptor
After that TA and Swan are my next candidates.
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I think that you are miss remembering me there. I was VLA for through N1.
Raptor: I saw your name that Tuesday afternoon. 'Who's Online' doesn't lie.
FOS to everyone not actively moving us to a lynch. There’s a lot of people who still have their votes in useless places 2.5 hours to deadline, and some of these people have come in and posted and not moved their votes.
This. Also going to extend it to Raptor for showing up and not moving his vote.
Note the timestamp. This is only a few hours before the lynch takes place. Why would I lie about something and give the other 10 people online at the time the chance to doublecheck my work and find out about my deception? So if you're going to continue to maintain that you did not open a browser and look at the forums during this period, I have no choice but to either report a bug to the forum moderator or vote you now. So for that, for the fact that your game is a far cry from NM11, and for cherrypicking the easiest case possible against me (something I saw you do as scum 1 year ago - do you know better now, I don't know):
Vote: Raptor
After that TA and Swan are my next candidates.
Realized I will not be around for D1 end. VLA tomorrow afternoon- till Tuesday afternoon sometime. I will have zero service during this time.
Here’s where I said that I was out till Tuesday afternoon :) ... but unfortunately the day closed on Monday sometime. :( I was in the California back country fighting bears at the time your lynched galz.
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@skumpy It’s hardly cherry picking. If you came off as less scummy it wouldn’t be so easy to make a case on you.
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LAL
vote: raptor
if you weren't there, then why were you online?
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LAL
vote: raptor
if you weren't there, then why were you online?
Your statement confuses me, when do you believe that I was online?
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nvm I think I misunderstood.
back to vote: Simon
@skumpy: EFHW and Simon is super a thing.
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I think that you are miss remembering me there. I was VLA for through N1.
Raptor: I saw your name that Tuesday afternoon. 'Who's Online' doesn't lie.
It lies in two ways:
1. People can opt never to be listed. I believe plenty of current Mafia players turn off the listing specifically so they can't be tracked like that.
2. I've read somewhere that leaving an f.ds tab open in a browser (even a phone browser) has been shown to make a pearson appear as present even if they're not actively reloading the page or interacting with it. I was more sceptical of that, but TBH, it makes the game more fun to believe it, and less about who can dedicate the longest time to stalking "Who's Online".
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Ugh are we really using "fake news" here in mafia games? OK, time to log off, that's absurd and I am so unhappy that that's bleeding into f.ds. Time to go cooldown
Why didn't you come back for deadline?
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Skumpy said he saw raptor online on Tues afternoon, but eod was on Monday.
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Skumpy said he saw raptor online on Tues afternoon, but eod was on Monday.
Yeah, that's what I noticed too, hence the unvote.
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Skumpy said he saw raptor online on Tues afternoon, but eod was on Monday.
Yeah, that's what I noticed too, hence the unvote.
It's still a weird thing to say. On Tues he would have known the day had ended.
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Skumpy said he saw raptor online on Tues afternoon, but eod was on Monday.
Yeah, that's what I noticed too, hence the unvote.
It's still a weird thing to say. On Tues he would have known the day had ended.
Skumpy may just be mis-remembering what day of the week the deadline was on, now that he's referring back to it. I'm assuming he meant to say that he was stalking Who's Online on the Monday, unless he comes along to say differently. Either way, I don't think it's as informative as he thinks it is.
At one stage, LL had a "Tuesday" in the deadline text of a VC, I think, because for a while during D1 I had the idea in my head that it was going to be the Tuesday and not the Monday, too.
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Skumpy said he saw raptor online on Tues afternoon, but eod was on Monday.
Yeah, that's what I noticed too, hence the unvote.
It's still a weird thing to say. On Tues he would have known the day had ended.
Skumpy may just be mis-remembering what day of the week the deadline was on, now that he's referring back to it. I'm assuming he meant to say that he was stalking Who's Online on the Monday, unless he comes along to say differently. Either way, I don't think it's as informative as he thinks it is.
This. The quote I gave is from that Monday.
I think that you are miss remembering me there. I was VLA for through N1.
Raptor: I saw your name that Tuesday afternoon. 'Who's Online' doesn't lie.
It lies in two ways:
1. People can opt never to be listed. I believe plenty of current Mafia players turn off the listing specifically so they can't be tracked like that.
2. I've read somewhere that leaving an f.ds tab open in a browser (even a phone browser) has been shown to make a pearson appear as present even if they're not actively reloading the page or interacting with it. I was more sceptical of that, but TBH, it makes the game more fun to believe it, and less about who can dedicate the longest time to stalking "Who's Online".
1. There are indeed false negatives. So far, I haven't seen a false positive.
2. Surely something would still have to happen to cause it to trigger? And while I agree that it's not the fun thing to do, given that I did notice it, I can't put it out of my mind and discard it completely.
I was in the California back country fighting bears at the time your lynched galz.
That does sound pretty exhilarating, hope it was fun. Also, I see what you're doing there. Clever.
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nvm I think I misunderstood.
back to vote: Simon
@skumpy: EFHW and Simon is super a thing.
Just that it isn't.
Scum had no reason to interact at the deadline yesterday. If TA isn't happening I can try raptor, by all means.
vote: raptor
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Sorry, busy day yesterday. Did anyone claim to be the other mason? I'm much less likely to believe a claim tomorrow, and if we get another mislynch today, tomorrow will be MYLO, so scum will definitely 1v1 for the win.
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Lynching off of some "Who's Online" confusion has never ever ever ever ever been good. In fact, I'm pretty sure I've most often argued for lynching like this when I am myself scum, so big FOS at Skumpy.
Sorry, I've not been engaging with this game nearly enough. I feel like TA and gkrieg are just as un-engaged, though? Gkrieg I guess has an excuse, where is TA?
I skimmed Space's math posts, per usual--no offense, Space. I guess Space's case on EFHW is more persuasive than anything else I've seen, so Vote: EFHW.
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Lynching off of some "Who's Online" confusion has never ever ever ever ever been good. In fact, I'm pretty sure I've most often argued for lynching like this when I am myself scum, so big FOS at Skumpy.
Well, yes. Though you also have to remember that his big defense of the whole "scumslip" discussion was that he'd been stalking "Who's Online" before the game even started, and that's how he knew that Simon had learned the ropes well.. so if he can make it look like stalking "Who's Online" is a big part of his play strategy, then that looks more natural retrospectively.
I've not been engaging with this game nearly enough. I feel like TA and gkrieg are just as un-engaged, though?
Yes. I've mentally awarded scumpoints to you and gkrieg accordingly. Less so to TA, because he's an unknown to me. I feel like he's really not giving me much to go on...
I skimmed Space's math posts, per usual--no offense, Space.
No offense taken!
I guess Space's case on EFHW is more persuasive than anything else I've seen, so Vote: EFHW.
This points to the fact that we need some more persuasive cases, really. I wasn't even trying to make a case so much as deflect what I thought was undeserved suspicion coming my way from EFWH because I was one of the people active at the EoD and not moving to lynch Galz.
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TA is an unknown to you? Didn't realize that. He was a high skill veteran player for a long stretch of games.
If I'm accruing scum points and all other cases are bad, why am I not getting your vote?
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You should read the conclusion of space' math posts, though. It's not like in past games where there was lots of debate, what they said is on point.
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TA is an unknown to you? Didn't realize that. He was a high skill veteran player for a long stretch of games.
If I'm accruing scum points and all other cases are bad, why am I not getting your vote?
I was wondering the same thing about you voting me just after awarding a bunch of scum points to Skumpy.
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I'm annoyed by the who's online thing. Raptor and DatSwan both say raptor didn't have access. So is Skumpy making this up?
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TA is an unknown to you? Didn't realize that. He was a high skill veteran player for a long stretch of games.
From his posting backlog, it looks like the previous game he was in was M101, which was a really small one that I wasn't playing in. Before that, it was M70. I joined for M84, though my first game was M85, because that actually started earlier :-) I think M85 was LL's first one, too!
If I'm accruing scum points and all other cases are bad, why am I not getting your vote?
I didn't say you were the only one accruing points. I'm mulling some stuff over and seeing what cases stick in my head right now. Well, in general. Right now it's bed time.
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Hey, was going to come home and catch up this evening, but it turns out my internet is out, so I’m stuck to mobile for the time being. I’m in a similar place to robz, in that I haven’t gotten into the flow of things. Galz flipping town definitely didn’t help that feeling.
Re-reading this evening then hoping internet is fixed tomorrow so I can quote and post things, but probably will have to wait until tomorrow to contribute.
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Lynching off of some "Who's Online" confusion has never ever ever ever ever been good. In fact, I'm pretty sure I've most often argued for lynching like this when I am myself scum, so big FOS at Skumpy.
Well, yes. Though you also have to remember that his big defense of the whole "scumslip" discussion was that he'd been stalking "Who's Online" before the game even started, and that's how he knew that Simon had learned the ropes well.. so if he can make it look like stalking "Who's Online" is a big part of his play strategy, then that looks more natural retrospectively.
It's not a part of my strategy; it's something I notice. There've been plenty of times I see people online and reading without posting; I don't care and I'm not going to call out by name (with the one exception) because it's not super informative and it's something I'm often guilty of.
I'm annoyed by the who's online thing. Raptor and DatSwan both say raptor didn't have access. So is Skumpy making this up?
As I said before: it'd be stupid of me to make something up when it's something that's very easily checkable by everyone else.
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How would it be checkable?
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so @DatSwan, I was actually being literate when I said I don't undestand how your post comes to the conclusion that I'm scummy. I don't understand what you are accusing me of having done. I'm particularly interested in hearing what you think I did wasn't pro town.
Being “wrong about the vote count” the “aw shucks comment” the switching with II.... pretty much the stuff i already posted
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I am going to continue to read through this.... but this argument seems a little ridiculous...
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What do you feel now?
Vote Count 2.2
Skumpy (2): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (1): DatSwan
Xxraptorslayer96 (2): Skumpy, Simon Jester
Simon Jester (1): silverspawn
EFHW (1): Robz888
Not Voting: (3) Twistedarcher, EFHW, SpaceAnemone
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm.
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so @DatSwan, I was actually being literate when I said I don't undestand how your post comes to the conclusion that I'm scummy. I don't understand what you are accusing me of having done. I'm particularly interested in hearing what you think I did wasn't pro town.
Being “wrong about the vote count” the “aw shucks comment” the switching with II.... pretty much the stuff i already posted
what are you talking about? I wasn't wrong about any vote count. I saw that there were 2 votes left, but I knew and I was right that we'd get a vote on galz through anyway. What aw shucks comment? And how was the switching bad? It ensured a lynch? ???
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Okay, here's an attempt at distilling Swan's big long post at #487 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=18873.msg764935#msg764935) into something more concise.
1. Masons shoot stuff. This was unknown to most players.
2. He posts the vote count as of #396, which was current through till #421 when EFHW switched, and hypothesizes that there is at least one scum on each of the wagons amongst the non-conf!town players. Leaving his name in the pool this time, this gives:- At least one scum in {silver, Space, Swan, gkrieg EFHW}
- At least one scum in {Robz, Skumpy, TA, Simon}
3. He claims that Skumpy was the only present-and-active person capable of hammering Simon. Not sure why that's such a big point, or where Iguana went in his reasoning.
4. He then ignores all his previous reasoning, and points out that silver is super-scummy because he posted intent to switch as we reached the two-minutes-to-deadline mark, and switched with under 60 seconds to spare, and this timing contributes to him being "scummy as hell".
5. A contributing factor to silver's scumminess is that he was Galz's top scumread, which has nothing to do with all the preceding vote analysis either.
Additional notes/opinions from me:
1. I have no idea what Swan means by "IDK its not hammer hammer" -- I can't see any post of silver's matching that.
2. I think it would be weird that scum!silver would stick with his stated scumread till 47 seconds before the deadline if he's really interested in lynching Galz, when super!townie!Iguana's pleas were clearly justification enough for other moves from Simon to Galz only a few minutes earlier.
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And while I'm dissecting Swan's post:
Pay attention boys and girls, this is where shit gets fun...
Might I suggest that instead of using "boys and girls", you try on some alternatives like "everyone", "folks", "towns and scums", or "assorted netizens"? Such phrases would not only be more attention-grabbing and linguistically fun, but also more accurate for your current audience, too :-)
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Why did iguana switch to simon when silver had stated intent to hammer?
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Hey -
It is game day today for Raptor and I.
I see some stuff directed at me - i will get to it tomorrow.
Happy weekend!
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If you see me log on It’s an error - I’m still VLA today
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Do other people not think that skumpy’s EOD post was super scummy? It makes me think that he and Simon are partners.
Also why don’t we have a mason claim???
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Do other people not think that skumpy’s EOD post was super scummy? It makes me think that he and Simon are partners.
Also why don’t we have a mason claim???
Is it still super-scummy if we assume (correctly) that I'm town? I'm a bit pained with being the only one with accurate information on this issue because the whole EOD is almost useless for me. It was town against town and scum could relax away. I don't give much for the who's online- argument but we primarily need to look at those not being part of the deadline anyway. TA, raptor pr maybe Robz too is where I would go today. Or Space, but nobody seems to care much about my accusation there, but I still think is the best one out there.
Gash, we are in a hard spot it seems. Mason, please help out. I think it's the best way if you could take the lead here, maybe.
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The gosh we are in a hard spot it seems from Simon is super scummy. Does not seem genuine.
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The gosh we are in a hard spot it seems from Simon is super scummy. Does not seem genuine.
I agree. Vote: Simon
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If I'm accruing scum points and all other cases are bad, why am I not getting your vote?
I didn't say you were the only one accruing points. I'm mulling some stuff over and seeing what cases stick in my head right now. Well, in general. Right now it's bed time.
Sure, fine. I was just trying to generate conversation.
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The gosh we are in a hard spot it seems from Simon is super scummy. Does not seem genuine.
I agree. Vote: Simon
Disappointed.
I'm genuinely frustrated. I got scumread yesterday based on basically nothing. I'm pseudo-new with a fresh account and the early conversation circeled around that and it got stuck together with the scumslip- accusation with Skumpy and me and since then I've been the top scum read for most people, the fact that the EOD killed off Galz instead of me didn't really help my case. I can't really lead town in any direction, I assume people would just counter-vote me if I tried to craft any type of plan.
But fine, kill me off. That mislynch will be rough as hell, but I guess you will have a better chance to see clearly when I'm gone.
In fact. Back to basics for me too. vote for the top scumread and it's still: vote: SpaceA
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How would it be checkable?
The name shows on the homepage for 15 minutes. And if you miss that, you click the profile. Since people get mad me at when I talk about it, please stop asking me questions about it so that I don't have to talk about it.
If you see me log on It’s an error - I’m still VLA today
OK, last time, I swear: your profile's 'Last Active' corroborates your story, you do in fact have an air-tight alibi for Saturday, Swan. Except that it's always the person with the best alibi who does the murder.
Do other people not think that skumpy’s EOD post was super scummy? It makes me think that he and Simon are partners.
Also why don’t we have a mason claim???
So how do you feel then that Simon also agrees the mason should claim?
Simon: If you're playing me, I am going to be so disappointed in you and even more disappointed in myself. You're not brand new, so I have to be careful about that and I do have to remind myself that you have some knowledge of how to talk as scum. If you are scum, I give my full apologies to town and full kudos to scum for a game well played where you could either bus without suspicion or let literally the entire town vote him without needing to step in to interfere. If I mess up, then foof, I am disappointed to have let my moronic intellect lead you astray.
Having said that: I haven't yet been wrong on a 'white knight' read, as ss likes to say and as I will now be using that term from now on, so by the powers invested in me by LaLight and my positive emotion flavor (I consider calm quite positive, btw), I hereby dub thee Sir Jester. You people are veterans at this game. You have combined to play dozens upon dozens of games and to spend centuries worth of reading and posting; why are you cherrypicking statements (on D2 at that) like:
The gosh we are in a hard spot it seems from Simon is super scummy. Does not seem genuine.
I agree. Vote: Simon
when he probably KNOWS that this kind of stuff is so typical of new scum, and so he wouldn't post it (and so he would, and so WIFOM, etc, but it's not a scummy thing to say). This Skumpy-Simon theory was farfetched to begin with, and it's gotten worse if anything. I don't go out my way and do everything I can to save partners. That would be very obvious of me, wouldn't it? I say: if they've messed up, let 'em die! I don't want to lose this game, and I'm doing everything in my power to prevent that from happening. Am I necessarily right? No, maybe not even about Simon. But you people need to do more to help than ignore every point we try to make and instead FOS the 2 most active people in this game. Iguana, if you can read this from the dead, I am gravely disappointed in you because you played too damn well D1 and I really want my lizard here right now (not a breadcrumb).
If either and/or both of you are scum @gkrieg/Robz, it's shameful that we have delivered ourselves into your hands so easily without you having to lift a finger when no votes are coming your way. And if you are town, you should go have a nap or eat some almonds or something, and come back with a fresh mindset and solve this mystery.
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Simon: If you're playing me, I am going to be so disappointed in you and even more disappointed in myself.
The same to you Skump. I don't know man. This whiteknighting, aka buddying, is pleasent but makes me nevertheless extremely suspicious. Halfway through I thought you were going to come out as Mason and that would be so so good, noew I just don't know... thanks.. I guess? But I'm not sure that anyone else could be convinced by this.,
Agree though that gkrieg/Robz is a very likely scumteam seeing how these days have been played out. Anyone else up for getting Robz today?
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While we're on the subject of:
The gosh we are in a hard spot it seems from Simon is super scummy. Does not seem genuine.
I agree. Vote: Simon
Disappointed.
I'm genuinely frustrated. I got scumread yesterday based on basically nothing. I'm pseudo-new with a fresh account and the early conversation circeled around that and it got stuck together with the scumslip- accusation with Skumpy and me and since then I've been the top scum read for most people, the fact that the EOD killed off Galz instead of me didn't really help my case. I can't really lead town in any direction, I assume people would just counter-vote me if I tried to craft any type of plan.
But fine, kill me off. That mislynch will be rough as hell, but I guess you will have a better chance to see clearly when I'm gone.
In fact. Back to basics for me too. vote for the top scumread and it's still: vote: SpaceA
which by the way is exactly how I'm feeling right now, especially the bold, and even the desire to keep wagon hopping even though I know it just raises suspicion.
Let's revisit the Raptor case. People seem to be in the mindset of 'what a crappy case based on 'Who's Online', that can't be right'.
If Raptor was town, he could make that very clear and obvious if he wanted to. I've seen him do it before, he is more than capable of doing it again. One possibility is that he is scum and finds it difficult to make a fake case. A second, and one that I know is scummy of me to say (self-conscious, oooh!), but I have to put it out there as I refrained from saying it D1, is that his one special performance was a direct result of him being a PR, and a feeling of responsibility to contribute. As town, I don't actively try to figure out who the PR's are. But it's tough of me to not notice things like Raptor's play. Given that scum already has a 30% chance of knocking out either the Mason or the Roleblocker without any other information AND that they might lynch a town today AND that they've probably already figured out who both are, there is some safety in targeting somebody who is less likely to be a PR. Iguana voted for Raptor as well D1, which further suggests to me he's not the mason. In addition, were he to flip scum, that would make me very reluctant to want to vote EFHW for the rest of the game because of him throwing his vote there before he went VLA, and so would all but clear one of the more unreadable, controversial players this game.
His post out of his 15 thus far, including the /in, involving the most work and scumreading was this:
Vote: skumpy because of the timing of his votes as well as over all tone in the game (nothing new right?)
Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?
why wouldn't you just do it yourself?
Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...
convenient that with less then a minute you were ready to switch off the wagon.
Responding to Swan's stuff:
'XXR wasn't moving' - I still want to know why that's the case when he did check in that day. That's still a very important point.
I think that you are miss remembering me there. I was VLA for through N1.
which is just lazy in addition to being wrong. Raptor, if you are town, I don't want to sound like a jerk with this, but I probably will, and I apologize: I don't trust you to make good decisions for the remainder of the game, and I see you as more of a liability than an asset, if that is the absolute best of your scumreading efforts. You can be very, very good at this game as town, both in terms of accuracy and in gaining towncred for yourself. But you're not this game, and I don't know why. If I had to guess, it's that we are indeed once again pitted against each other which disappoints me greatly.
Expected value aside, why vote Raptor? Because he has done nothing townie this game. The only case for him was Swan saying D1 "it's a lazy vote on Raptor". True enough at the time, and I agreed. But we're halfway into D2. He's had 48 hours, not counting Saturday, to go back and reflect and put together a case. A case on me based on a few scummy posts in response to not voting a wagon that may or may not be town (why not vote Simon if that's what you believe?) is what resulted. I feel like Awaclus, but I now kinda get it when he says: Give me a good reason I should not vote Raptor right now, and @everyone, tell me what you have going for him?
PPE
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Simon: If you're playing me, I am going to be so disappointed in you and even more disappointed in myself.
Agree though that gkrieg/Robz is a very likely scumteam seeing how these days have been played out. Anyone else up for getting Robz today?
I did not agree with that actually, just a possibility that would be very unfortunate. The sad truth is that I'm very much in the dark. I have suspects that I've listed before (namely, Raptor, Swan, and TA), but could easily see scum in basically everybody else...except you. No, I'm not a fan of voting Robz today, I think there are better options. If you believe there was scum on the opposite wagon, which is far from a certainty if Raptor is one of the team, I'd rather go for TA.
My Raptor case could be way wrong, btw. But I'm putting this on you now, Raptor: prove to me that you want to win and that you are capable of putting together a solid argument against someone from what they've done over the course of 10 IRL days, and not based on a few posts at the end of D1 during a rushed lynch. If it's on me, so be it. But make a good case.
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I'm open to a raptor vote. But do you agree that you were wrong on the time thing? He was online after the lynch happened, so there is no case on him based on not being there at the deadline ... right? Just trying to understand.
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I'm open to a raptor vote. But do you agree that you were wrong on the time thing? He was online after the lynch happened, so there is no case on him based on not being there at the deadline ... right? Just trying to understand.
I was not wrong, I just wrote Tuesday when I meant to write Monday. And mistaken, wrong, lying, whatever.... throw that out if you want, if it's clouding your (general 'your') judgment.
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Wait, so you are in fact claiming that he was online on monday when he claims he was not?
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Wait, so you are in fact claiming that he was online on monday when he claims he was not?
I believe that Skumpy is still Maintaining that Raptor was here, based on "Who's Online" information. Skumpy had claimed that his info is "very easily checkable by everyone else", which is true for other people who're active around the same time, but there's no login history we can go back and check now. So this could be faked, but only to the extent that Skumpy is confident no other player who was online at the same time has recorded contradictory information with enough confidence to call him out on it.
He did, however, say earlier that Swan had an airtight alibi due to the login time listings. That confused me on first reading, because it hadn't registered for me that he was making observations about two different players, so read it incorrectly as him backing down on the original case at first.
I think my approach for now is going to be to believe that Skumpy saw exactly what he says he saw, to believe that Raptor was just as VLA as he says he was, and to unify these beliefs based on the existence of both false positives and false negatives exist in the system. I would like it if this kind of evidence could be ignored/strongly downweighted in favour of actual posts and votes from the players in question.
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vote: Space, but raptor is also sounding good. I agree Robz is being scummy. Not sure about gkrieg. If the mason would claim, I think that could greatly help our scumhunting today.
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That vote was not a response to their most recent post.
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I didn't say you were the only one accruing points. I'm mulling some stuff over and seeing what cases stick in my head right now. Well, in general. Right now it's bed time.
Sure, fine. I was just trying to generate conversation.
[/quote]
You used my wasn't-even-a-real-case "case" to vote EFHW, and now you're jumping onto Simon based on a comment from gkrieg. Note that gkrieg himself is voting skumpy at the moment, and again, his comment was not a real case. So if you'd like to generate some conversation, let's have a conversation, with reads and opinions and things, so you can interact in a way that is more than superficial vote-throwing :-)
My problem with this game right now is that you, gkrieg, TA and Raptor are all super-low contributors, so there could be any number (up to three) of scum hiding in there. How would you recommend that I balance wanting to hunt for scums in the places I can actually hunt (people who're interacting, posting, making their opinions known) with wanting to rid town of liabilities in the much less vocal half?
Post Count D1
81 - iguanaiguana
47 - silverspawn
44 - EFHW
42 - Skumpy
39 - Simon Jester
32 - Galzria
30 - DatSwan
25 - gkrieg13
24 - SpaceAnemone
23 - Twistedarcher
20 - Robz888
9 - Xxraptorslayer96
Post Count D2 so far
24 - Skumpy
19 - EFHW
19 - SpaceAnemone
16 - silverspawn
8 - gkrieg13
7 - DatSwan
7 - Robz888
6 - Simon Jester
5 - Xxraptorslayer96
1 - Twistedarcher
PPE: I've updated the vote count based on EFHW's new pair of posts, but this post was in the works in parallel with my other post above, and is not taking the content of her posts into consideration.
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Simon: If you're playing me, I am going to be so disappointed in you and even more disappointed in myself.
The same to you Skump. I don't know man. This whiteknighting, aka buddying, is pleasent but makes me nevertheless extremely suspicious. Halfway through I thought you were going to come out as Mason and that would be so so good, noew I just don't know... thanks.. I guess? But I'm not sure that anyone else could be convinced by this.,
Agree though that gkrieg/Robz is a very likely scumteam seeing how these days have been played out. Anyone else up for getting Robz today?
White knighting is a scum tactic where you vigorously defend a town player who is in danger of being lynched. Buddying is used by either alignment.
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The gosh we are in a hard spot it seems from Simon is super scummy. Does not seem genuine.
You think Simon, who's pretty much playing like a newbie, is so easy to tone-read? And yet you're voting Skumpy, because you think he's acting even more super-scummily?
I kind of don't like how you're staying largely disengaged with the game, resting confidently on your two scumreads but not pushing cases beyond "hey, isn't that too scummy?". Meanwhile, I'm really struggling to work out which subset of all the scummy stuff we're seeing constitutes grounds for an actual vote.
I mean, I'd love to have been correct about my early "scumslip" comment that pointed the finger at the two of them being scum together, but how often does stuff like that work out?
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White knighting is a scum tactic
No it's not.
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so my intuition about raptor is different. In a bayesian sense it seems reasonably likely that he lied. I think that's pretty strong evidence. If I don't misunderstand something.
vote: raptor
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so my intuition about raptor is different. In a bayesian sense it seems reasonably likely that he lied. I think that's pretty strong evidence. If I don't misunderstand something.
vote: raptor
Are you saying that you believe with some relatively high likelihood he explicitly was reading along with the thread at the time of the deadline? And that that outweighs all the other less disingenuous options such as:
1. Being only very occasionally in range of mobile signal and having his phone load a page in passing that he had requested a long time prior.
2. Having left a desktop tab open on the forum somewhere, and a script in that randomly making a request (I believe I read a thread discussing someone having inflated their "time on the site" stats that way, which is why I fully believe in "false positives" from Skumpy's method being a possibility.
3. Skumpy being scum and lying about having seen Raptor online, taking confidence from the fact that it's not retrospectively verifiable and town's response to his first admission of using "Who's Online" did not indicate that any of the rest of us are in the habit of using that.
I think it's really quite likely that Raptor didn't lie at all, even if Skumpy didn't lie either.
What do you consider to be the likelyhood of Skumpy being town?
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Simon: If you're playing me, I am going to be so disappointed in you and even more disappointed in myself.
The same to you Skump. I don't know man. This whiteknighting, aka buddying, is pleasent but makes me nevertheless extremely suspicious. Halfway through I thought you were going to come out as Mason and that would be so so good, noew I just don't know... thanks.. I guess? But I'm not sure that anyone else could be convinced by this.,
Agree though that gkrieg/Robz is a very likely scumteam seeing how these days have been played out. Anyone else up for getting Robz today?
White knighting is a scum tactic where you vigorously defend a town player who is in danger of being lynched. Buddying is used by either alignment.
It's not an important discussion but to me white knighting is a IRL-term for needlessly defending someone else. Buddying have I only seen in scumterms since they are the only one that knows that they are supporting an opposite faction. Ah well. If Skumpy is scum he sorta did both anyway. If he's not, well, nice post, fam!
All this who's online business are really tiresome. In any case he wasn't involved and he didn't help us getting a better chance creating a wagon on scum yesterday so he is scummy to me either way.
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I'm open to a raptor vote. But do you agree that you were wrong on the time thing? He was online after the lynch happened, so there is no case on him based on not being there at the deadline ... right? Just trying to understand.
I was not wrong, I just wrote Tuesday when I meant to write Monday. And mistaken, wrong, lying, whatever.... throw that out if you want, if it's clouding your (general 'your') judgment.
As I said Space, ignore it if you want and I won't hold it against you. But tell me why you don't want to vote Raptor at this particular moment.
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What do you consider to be the likelyhood of Skumpy being town?
High. I'm back to townreading him.
so my intuition about raptor is different. In a bayesian sense it seems reasonably likely that he lied. I think that's pretty strong evidence. If I don't misunderstand something.
vote: raptor
Are you saying that you believe with some relatively high likelihood he explicitly was reading along with the thread at the time of the deadline? And that that outweighs all the other less disingenuous options such as: [...]
Maybe, but it doesn't need to outweigh other options. If it's like a 1/3 chance that he lied, that probably already makes him the person I want to lynch the most. It's not like he has much going for him in the first place.
But it's probably higher than that. Think about how he reacted: if it was some kind of open tab, wouldn't he have posted an explanation as soon as it became clear that skumpy was actually talking about the day of the deadline, and not the day before?
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What do you consider to be the likelyhood of Skumpy being town?
High. I'm back to townreading him.
Okay, then what do you think of gkrieg being so convinced that Skumpy is scum that he's had his vote there all day, and is not really engaging with the rest of the game to persuade anyone else of the fact?
Think about how he reacted: if it was some kind of open tab, wouldn't he have posted an explanation as soon as it became clear that skumpy was actually talking about the day of the deadline, and not the day before?
His most recent post in the game is a question to Skumpy at #528: "Your statement confuses me, when do you believe that I was online?". I take that to mean that he's not even fully aware of what Skumpy's trying to say or where Skumpy's evidence is coming from. It's evidence that Raptor is not paying attention to the game, and as lynches go, at worst he's low-utility town whose loss isn't going to impact us except in the numbers game, but I don't think it's damning evidence that he's scum. It's not like he asked "How do you know I was online" or something...
In response to why I'm not that keen on voting him, conf!town!galz was warning people against jumping on Raptor in D1, and Raptor really does seem an easy sort of mislynch to push because he's barely doing anything. Quite early in D2, I figured that if I'm going to give a D2 pass to anyone,
I think there are more interesting lurkers who could be more dangerous if they're scum. Robz, for one. Maybe TA, if he's actually a strong vet. I also think there are more informative low-utility towns to lynch: Simon's flip would help with wagon analysis D1, and could go some way to helping people trust Skumpy if he really does flip town. So as a single lynch prospect, he's just not the most interesting at all.
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Internet is still out, unfortunately. But I'll go ago and say I'm a mason, and Iguana's partner.
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Internet is still out, unfortunately. But I'll go ago and say I'm a mason, and Iguana's partner.
I believe it, there's certainly been evidence for you. If you want to allude to Iguana's suspicions, that would alleviate any remaining doubt I have.
Sorry for trying to kill you D1. And D2. I guess I was the one scum was laughing at D1. All the more so if Simon flips scum.
In light of that, this makes me strongly suspect Robz now that I'm reasonably confident 4 of the 5 on his wagon for the main part of D1 were town, with him as the odd man out. I'd still rather persecute the swimmers at this point in time. That threesome of {Robz, DatSwan, Raptor} is creepy-crawling with scum, mark my words. Or maybe not.
His most recent post in the game is a question to Skumpy at #528: "Your statement confuses me, when do you believe that I was online?". I take that to mean that he's not even fully aware of what Skumpy's trying to say or where Skumpy's evidence is coming from. It's evidence that Raptor is not paying attention to the game, and as lynches go, at worst he's low-utility town whose loss isn't going to impact us except in the numbers game, but I don't think it's damning evidence that he's scum. It's not like he asked "How do you know I was online" or something...
In response to why I'm not that keen on voting him, conf!town!galz was warning people against jumping on Raptor in D1, and Raptor really does seem an easy sort of mislynch to push because he's barely doing anything. Quite early in D2, I figured that if I'm going to give a D2 pass to anyone,
I think there are more interesting lurkers who could be more dangerous if they're scum. Robz, for one. Maybe TA, if he's actually a strong vet. I also think there are more informative low-utility towns to lynch: Simon's flip would help with wagon analysis D1, and could go some way to helping people trust Skumpy if he really does flip town. So as a single lynch prospect, he's just not the most interesting at all.
Galz said that D1. I agreed. It's now D2. Barely doing anything is why he wasn't pushed the first time he was scum. I highly disagree that we get nothing out of him flipping. If he were town, that would all but force me to vote Robz (though it might be too late because I'm basically guaranteed to be the lynch tomorrow if that happens). And if he were scum, that would all but clear EFHW for me, one of YOUR top scumreads (I don't believe Raptor busses EFHW given a totally equal option between her and ss once he goes VLA. Unless both are scum). You say there's not damning evidence that he's scum; what damning evidence do you have that anybody's scum? You have now elevated up my scumread list for that post.
Also: why is Simon 'low-utility'?
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Internet is still out, unfortunately. But I'll go ago and say I'm a mason, and Iguana's partner.
Interesting. I have to do a reread.
I don't mind SpaceA:s comment on my low-utility, compared to an engaged town!Robz or town!silver I'm a better mislynch, but eh, don't mislynch me.
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Here is where I am at, I was not online and I didn’t have service at the time of day end. Before I left for my trip I cast my vote for the person that had the most votes and I thought was a better choice between the two (there was a tie at the time). I stated that I was going to be vla 48 hours before I left and stated what I was going to do. I felt I was better off leaving my vote on someone with a wagon vs someone random. If you choose not to believe me that’s fine but I don’t some any explanation for skumpster “seeing me online that day”.
I also believe the possible team is skumpy, silver and ??
They seem to have a lot of trust for each other that I simply would not give to to another player unless I knew their alignment.
I also believe TA’s claim. Don’t think we would lie.
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Galz said that D1. I agreed. It's now D2. Barely doing anything is why he wasn't pushed the first time he was scum.
I was willing to give it another day, but TA's new revelation means we have more PoE to play with, so I'll put him back in my pool.
Also: why is Simon 'low-utility'?
His post at #563 was pretty defeatist, and he's missed all chances to scum-hunt, offering no fresh cases. Even if he's town, I don't know whether he's got the experience to shake off the suspicion and help deliver a win as well as other players might. What's your expectation here?
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Internet is still out, unfortunately. But I'll go ago and say I'm a mason, and Iguana's partner.
Catching up - but first..
I am inclined to believe that this is true.
Neither of them voted for each other at any point in time.
Then at the end of D1 they moved TOGETHER from wagon to wagon until the Galz lynch.
TA is removed from my pool for now.
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White knighting is a scum tactic
No it's not.
Are you trying to say that Skum does NOT WN as a tactic?
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And while I'm dissecting Swan's post:
Pay attention boys and girls, this is where shit gets fun...
Might I suggest that instead of using "boys and girls", you try on some alternatives like "everyone", "folks", "towns and scums", or "assorted netizens"? Such phrases would not only be more attention-grabbing and linguistically fun, but also more accurate for your current audience, too :-)
mb Space, I forget sometimes.
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Okay, here's an attempt at distilling Swan's big long post at #487 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=18873.msg764935#msg764935) into something more concise.
1. Masons shoot stuff. This was unknown to most players.
2. He posts the vote count as of #396, which was current through till #421 when EFHW switched, and hypothesizes that there is at least one scum on each of the wagons amongst the non-conf!town players. Leaving his name in the pool this time, this gives:- At least one scum in {silver, Space, Swan, gkrieg EFHW}
- At least one scum in {Robz, Skumpy, TA, Simon}
3. He claims that Skumpy was the only present-and-active person capable of hammering Simon. Not sure why that's such a big point, or where Iguana went in his reasoning.
4. He then ignores all his previous reasoning, and points out that silver is super-scummy because he posted intent to switch as we reached the two-minutes-to-deadline mark, and switched with under 60 seconds to spare, and this timing contributes to him being "scummy as hell".
5. A contributing factor to silver's scumminess is that he was Galz's top scumread, which has nothing to do with all the preceding vote analysis either.
Additional notes/opinions from me:
1. I have no idea what Swan means by "IDK its not hammer hammer" -- I can't see any post of silver's matching that.
2. I think it would be weird that scum!silver would stick with his stated scumread till 47 seconds before the deadline if he's really interested in lynching Galz, when super!townie!Iguana's pleas were clearly justification enough for other moves from Simon to Galz only a few minutes earlier.
1) I admitted to my stupidity already.
2) I will of course leave myself out of PoV posts. Not sure if this was just an updated list or what?
3) Skumpy being the only present and active person is a HUGE point. It means we had someone around and they did not hammer... Since Galz and the person leading the Galz lynch both flipped TOWN... it is absolutely relevant. And I took the II bit out because they of course had already flipped town, so their intent is irrelevant from this perspective.
4) I do not understand how this undermines my previous reasoning. If it is regarding the "only person that can hammer" I would point out that SS couldn't hammer.. then they switched, then they hammered.
5) Galz was Town. Galz is right... a lot... as town. It is def a side point, but I am not going to not factor it in.
Additional:
1) So it would be bc of posts like this :
Ok, hammer simon in the next minute or I hammer galz
Where SS could not actually do what they were saying - as Galz was L-2.
2) Right. It is weird. Almost like SS was either aware it was a TvT wagon not wanting it to go to No Lynch or aware they were bussing super hard on Simon and wanted to make sure Galz was the lynch.
This is unlike you. All this information is like... very readily available. I am not really inferring anything from posts, the posts are just there and I pointed them out.
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I've been doing some wagon-gazing. Some of this necessarily only works from the mindset where I'm conf!town, but I'm posting it as a template that the rest of you might apply to draw your own conclusions.
Firstly, at #247, the votes look like this:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (2): SpaceAnemone, Galzria
SpaceAnemone (1): EFHW
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
Simon Jester (1): silverspawn
Not Voting (1): DatSwan
-- That EFHW wagon stays static for over 30 posts. I'm going to take that to mean that either EFHW is scum, or someone on her wagon is. And since 2/3 of those wagoners are conf!town, that means a 1-v-1 with EFHW and Raptor.
Secondly, the early Simon wagon around #289-#323: (showing voting at #289)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, TwistedArcher
-- So either Simon is scum, or someone on his tail is. That means at least one of {Simon, silver, Swan} is scum. People who aren't me will probably want to add me into this constraint.
Thirdly, the later Galz wagon #338-#396: (showing voting at #338)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (3): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan
TwistedArcher (1): EFHW
Galzria (5): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Simon Jester, TwistedArcher
-- This time, Galz, Iguana and TA are conf!town. That means at least one of {Robz, Skumpy, Simon} is scum.
Those three constraints alone are enough to whittle the scum pool a bit for me, though there's nothing quite as conclusive as I'd like. I need to find some more good corners of the rolling vote count to add to the constraints. Anyone interested in contributing a favourite and/or contesting what I've hypothesized so far?
I invite comments from people in the various pools, since townies in the three-person pools get even better PoE than I do here. I would also have expected at least one of EFHW and Raptor to express suspicion on the other.
PPE: 4
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I've been doing some wagon-gazing. Some of this necessarily only works from the mindset where I'm conf!town, but I'm posting it as a template that the rest of you might apply to draw your own conclusions.
Firstly, at #247, the votes look like this:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (2): SpaceAnemone, Galzria
SpaceAnemone (1): EFHW
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
Simon Jester (1): silverspawn
Not Voting (1): DatSwan
-- That EFHW wagon stays static for over 30 posts. I'm going to take that to mean that either EFHW is scum, or someone on her wagon is. And since 2/3 of those wagoners are conf!town, that means a 1-v-1 with EFHW and Raptor.
Secondly, the early Simon wagon around #289-#323: (showing voting at #289)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, TwistedArcher
-- So either Simon is scum, or someone on his tail is. That means at least one of {Simon, silver, Swan} is scum. People who aren't me will probably want to add me into this constraint.
Thirdly, the later Galz wagon #338-#396: (showing voting at #338)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (3): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan
TwistedArcher (1): EFHW
Galzria (5): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Simon Jester, TwistedArcher
-- This time, Galz, Iguana and TA are conf!town. That means at least one of {Robz, Skumpy, Simon} is scum.
Those three constraints alone are enough to whittle the scum pool a bit for me, though there's nothing quite as conclusive as I'd like. I need to find some more good corners of the rolling vote count to add to the constraints. Anyone interested in contributing a favourite and/or contesting what I've hypothesized so far?
I invite comments from people in the various pools, since townies in the three-person pools get even better PoE than I do here. I would also have expected at least one of EFHW and Raptor to express suspicion on the other.
PPE: 4
I share your opinion on the EFHW part.
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I've been doing some wagon-gazing. Some of this necessarily only works from the mindset where I'm conf!town, but I'm posting it as a template that the rest of you might apply to draw your own conclusions.
Firstly, at #247, the votes look like this:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (2): SpaceAnemone, Galzria
SpaceAnemone (1): EFHW
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
Simon Jester (1): silverspawn
Not Voting (1): DatSwan
-- That EFHW wagon stays static for over 30 posts. I'm going to take that to mean that either EFHW is scum, or someone on her wagon is. And since 2/3 of those wagoners are conf!town, that means a 1-v-1 with EFHW and Raptor.
Secondly, the early Simon wagon around #289-#323: (showing voting at #289)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, TwistedArcher
-- So either Simon is scum, or someone on his tail is. That means at least one of {Simon, silver, Swan} is scum. People who aren't me will probably want to add me into this constraint.
Thirdly, the later Galz wagon #338-#396: (showing voting at #338)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (3): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan
TwistedArcher (1): EFHW
Galzria (5): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Simon Jester, TwistedArcher
-- This time, Galz, Iguana and TA are conf!town. That means at least one of {Robz, Skumpy, Simon} is scum.
Those three constraints alone are enough to whittle the scum pool a bit for me, though there's nothing quite as conclusive as I'd like. I need to find some more good corners of the rolling vote count to add to the constraints. Anyone interested in contributing a favourite and/or contesting what I've hypothesized so far?
I invite comments from people in the various pools, since townies in the three-person pools get even better PoE than I do here. I would also have expected at least one of EFHW and Raptor to express suspicion on the other.
PPE: 4
I share your opinion on the EFHW part.
But TA is a mason and II is dead town and I do not think Raptor is skum. But if you wanna get a EFHW thing going I am on board.
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You are assuming any stalled wagon with 3 or more members has scum on it or is on scum. There is no definite 1:1 between me and raptor. The wagon stalling isn't that informative. The 5 and 6 member wagons are more likely to have scum on them, but that is also not guaranteed.
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You are assuming any stalled wagon with 3 or more members has scum on it or is on scum. There is no definite 1:1 between me and raptor. The wagon stalling isn't that informative. The 5 and 6 member wagons are more likely to have scum on them, but that is also not guaranteed.
Addressed to Space
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Sorry guys. School is starting up soon and I may not have anough time for this. I’ll see how it goes though.
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All this who's online business are really tiresome. In any case he wasn't involved and he didn't help us getting a better chance creating a wagon on scum yesterday so he is scummy to me either way.
Sorry IRL stuff didn’t let me get more involved as I was out of town once things got rolling. But I don’t think you helped find scum very much day 1 either.
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I've been doing some wagon-gazing. Some of this necessarily only works from the mindset where I'm conf!town, but I'm posting it as a template that the rest of you might apply to draw your own conclusions.
Firstly, at #247, the votes look like this:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (2): SpaceAnemone, Galzria
SpaceAnemone (1): EFHW
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
Simon Jester (1): silverspawn
Not Voting (1): DatSwan
-- That EFHW wagon stays static for over 30 posts. I'm going to take that to mean that either EFHW is scum, or someone on her wagon is. And since 2/3 of those wagoners are conf!town, that means a 1-v-1 with EFHW and Raptor.
Secondly, the early Simon wagon around #289-#323: (showing voting at #289)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, TwistedArcher
-- So either Simon is scum, or someone on his tail is. That means at least one of {Simon, silver, Swan} is scum. People who aren't me will probably want to add me into this constraint.
Thirdly, the later Galz wagon #338-#396: (showing voting at #338)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (3): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan
TwistedArcher (1): EFHW
Galzria (5): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Simon Jester, TwistedArcher
-- This time, Galz, Iguana and TA are conf!town. That means at least one of {Robz, Skumpy, Simon} is scum.
Those three constraints alone are enough to whittle the scum pool a bit for me, though there's nothing quite as conclusive as I'd like. I need to find some more good corners of the rolling vote count to add to the constraints. Anyone interested in contributing a favourite and/or contesting what I've hypothesized so far?
I invite comments from people in the various pools, since townies in the three-person pools get even better PoE than I do here. I would also have expected at least one of EFHW and Raptor to express suspicion on the other.
PPE: 4
I’ll get to this later tonight
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Skumpy reread:
Hello
Hello
Hello.
Man, this flavor got real fast. Hope LaLight's OK.
In other news, would anybody like to have a coalition with me? I don't vote you, you don't vote me, unless there's reasonable confidence that the other's scum?
He starts with this coalition thing. He later claims that it is premeditated, but I think it is just something that he did so that he would have something to do at the beginning of the game. I guess I don't read it as scummy as much anymore.
Skumpster!!!
You wanna befriends?
If it's an offer that extends through an as-yet-to-to-specified number of days, then yes! Otherwise, I might have to just settle for Iguana and D1. Or anybody else who'd like to make a deal.
vote: skumpy on principle.
Sheesh. I guess I still owe you one. I wanna vote you but I won't; consider it an early gift for Wednesday.
Also, hi TA: I've clicked on your profile a few times.
And hi Simon: I'd give you newbie advice, but I know you've done a pretty good job of showing yourself the ropes.
Hi everyone else.
Next he gives this advice to Simon, which just seems fake. Seems like they have talked before. Obviously this only matters if one of them flips scum.
Skumpy then talks about not trusting people that trust him, and does lots of buddying.
That was a pretty scummy post of mine, wasn't it? Ah well. I'll be back in a few hours, when I can do some more thinking.
This is very self-concious. Scummy
I only have one with ss. If others don’t want to vote for me, fine by me.
I see you Simon, but can’t at the moment. I’ll get back to this shortly.
He also has lots of these I'll get back to this shortly, which I know I do a lot as scum.
I actually think skumpy is scum here.
I feel like it's still too early to say, but you seem really sure.
As sure as you can be with a couple days
I've typed out like 10 different responses, and none of them feel right. So I'll just keep it short and sweet: no
Meantime, I'm bored. If you guys generally don't have any controversial opinions or reads to share, then give us something interesting, like a personal anecdote or a joke or something.
He is bored, but doesn't want to engage with the person that is calling him scummy.
"If I end up as scum again and discover that my scumplay is actually quite transparent, maybe things will change. Right now, I'm doing what feels natural. And as town this game, that's especially easy." Part of his response to me saying he was trying to conform to his meta. The last part where he reaffirms he is town this game just seems scummy to me.
I realize there is a lot of bias I have going into this reread.
You know what, it's time to shut about me. I've done way too good a job of taking attention off scum.
Let's ramble about the Galz wagon, which I am indeed currently on.
He has given me nothing to think he's town. My reasons for voting, however, like all D1 reasons, are weak at best. And probably wrong. Additionally, I'm honestly not sure if it's a good vote, going strictly by expected value. I know from experience he's a good town player who can figure the lies out. It would be a shame to lose that D1. Additionally, it would be a shame to throw suspicion on the townies who cause a lynch and save scum from having to use a nightkill on him. But if he's scum, then that's a huge asset, not only by getting rid of a good player, but by putting scum in an uncomfortable position of whether or not they want to bus this.
Which is more important to do in this game, I'm too new to say. So I guess I'm going to side with inertia and wait and see what happens.
Here again he is trying to get the spotlight off of himself.
Both of those things together, it's seems to me highly likely there's a scum in {Iguana, ss, TA, Skumpy}. There's already an 86% chance of that, but whatever. And of that group, there's one I can't vote for, there's one I won't vote for, and there's one I'd be happy to vote for but would rather stick around longer because I pity it. So therefore, TA it is.
So that's me. Wrong? Possibly. Logical? I'd like to think so.
So how do you feel about this group of 4 people now?
He pushes heavily against the Simon wagon (obviously we don't know Simon's alignment), something to think about later.
Galz is an okey lynch. Not the best, but it's worth a shot. Vote: Galzria
Skumpys reaction to gkriegs scumread is... weird. Your olay today has been outlandish and it's not surprising at all someone regards it as very scummy. I don't agree with gkrieg, but can't say my townread on you is the strongest one ever.
Hope to be here at deadline but might not make it.
Scumreading isn't what bothers me. It's the tunnel, which lends itself to complete unhelpfulness.
So Galz is going to vote Simon. gkrieg's going to vote Simon because I'm not. Even if EFHW votes Galz, it's still 6-5, and there's basically nobody on the Simon wagon that I think could swing.
To respond to gkrieg: As I once said, I don't like Galz ignoring the coalition and all the responses. I feel like it got the game out of RVS pretty quickly, and those are the kinds of situations that Galz loves to look at to figure out who responded scummily. It feels like a cop-out on his part to say I'm skummy and leave it at that.
It remains to be seen, of course, but I'm not sure this is a dual-town wagon. The Galz wagon is interesting, and the people on it are interesting.
Not sure of deadline status. Around for most of the next few hours, but probably a biggish break somewhere. Maybe during deadline, maybe before.
Like this seems like pretty heavy pushing away from Simon. He also says the Galz wagon is interesting, which is not a good enough reason to be voting for it IMO.
Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?
Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...
These two votes just reek of scum. Obviously this is with the caveat that Simon is also scum, which is a huge assumption.
Also someone who is that self-concious about their posts, I don't know, it just seems like he felt like he needed to post something to not look scummy for not voting for Simon.
Anyway, that's where I kind of stop reading (he is hard to reread because of so much text).
Much of my read is dependent on us not having a both town EOD yesterday and Simon being scum, which is incredibly situational. I still just get the gut vibe that Skumpy is scum. I'll look in to more stuff tomorrow.
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White knighting is a scum tactic
No it's not.
Are you trying to say that Skum does NOT WN as a tactic?
ye.
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His most recent post in the game is a question to Skumpy at #528: "Your statement confuses me, when do you believe that I was online?". I take that to mean that he's not even fully aware of what Skumpy's trying to say or where Skumpy's evidence is coming from. It's evidence that Raptor is not paying attention to the game, and as lynches go, at worst he's low-utility town whose loss isn't going to impact us except in the numbers game, but I don't think it's damning evidence that he's scum.
Ok, yes. You're right. Forget his reaction. But even then, compared to say Robz he has this thing going on, which could conceivably be a tell. Robz has nothing going on. And last time I felt that his [Robz'] performance was weak and it had to mean he's scum he was just town.
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Many big stuffs!
Also: why is Simon 'low-utility'?
His post at #563 was pretty defeatist, and he's missed all chances to scum-hunt, offering no fresh cases. Even if he's town, I don't know whether he's got the experience to shake off the suspicion and help deliver a win as well as other players might. What's your expectation here?
There's 2 forms of utility. Being able to catch scum and being able to convince town you're not scum. Simon's fulfilled the 2nd, apparently only for me. I understand where you're coming from given that you're his top scum read, but, assuming that is he town, his vote has been haphazard enough and he's been willing enough to listen to my points at any rate that if you, Space, are indeed town, there's hope yet for you to convince him otherwise.
Swan's case: If ss is scum, I don't think the EOD hammer situation is the place to be looking for the evidence. Mostly because I still say it was dual-town. Even if I'm wrong and Simon is scum, then that should make ss town for you, and nullify the entire case. Not to say there isn't stuff against ss (stay tuned for more!)
Space's voting analysis: I have fallen into the trap of requiring there to be scum in subsets before, and I'd be careful about using absolutes. I've seen days involving dual-town wagons, and have made similar observations as you, only to find the entire scum team was on one wagon and the other wagon and VLAers consisted of more than half the town and no scum. Scum does not necessarily need to spread themselves thin, grouping up can be a viable strategy, since it's apparently not something you believe is likely.
Having said all that: there is some good stuff. The Simon wagon tells me next to nothing, I don't care about finding the scum in 4 people at this point. The Galz wagon is more interesting. As I've said before, if you are right in your conclusion and I am right in my white knighting, then I would know Robz is scum. But again: it's a dangerous conclusion to be made. Partly because if Robz is lynched today and is town, I'm lynched tomorrow after TA dies tonight, and then the game's over. You also look at the wagons closely without acknowledging Raptor's non-presence on them. If Raptor's scum, then there's only 2 scum between the 2 wagons, and there's a lot more possibilities, eh?
The Raptor-EFHW thing is more interesting. ss's activity on that wagon ought to make him a candidate as well, and then there's all but certainly a scum in those 3. I've said before Raptor's scum flip would make me feel town on EFHW, so there I shall stay. I guess the vice versa would be true too, but I think Raptor's more likely than EFHW to be scum.
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gkrieg, you're trying to find Skumpy as scummy. What you need to be doing is trying to find Skumpy as Skummy. I play much differently than everybody else, lumping me under the same standards is going to lead you astray, as it already has. Any time you mention 'self-conscious', my response is 'That's how I play'. The less scummy you think I'm being, the more Skummy I am.
I'll hunt and peck your stuff:
"Lot's of get back to this shortly": I don't plan on making big cases lying in bed in the morning. I don't plan on making big cases in the time just before I leave work. And if you still think saying this stuff is scummy, how about you read the post right before your last big one?
Bored: Yeah, it was a really slow day. Nothing interesting happened. I tried to respond to you, I did type like 10 things that seemed witty to me and would seem stupid to everybody else, so I just cut it. Your entire case through D1 was "I'm pretty sure he's scum". How am I supposed to respond to that?.
Spotlight: At the time, I felt all I was doing was talking about my meta which leads town absolutely nowhere if I suck them in and get them chiming in. Finding scum involves making sure I'm not the center of attention, which still probably happens more than I'd like.
Group of 4: I'm glad you asked! And that somebody asked. More on that later.
Interesting wagon: By interesting, I mean Iguana and Simon were there. And I wanted to be with them rather than against them. So basically the same reasons you voted Simon.
I really haven't been posting all that many long posts. Not until the last couple IRL days at any rate. It's like a 1000% improvement over my posts of yore, sorry if that bores you.
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Let's chit chat about ss now, shall we?
As a reminder, this was my case D1 against TA (and ss):
@Skumpy What do my posts have to do with your voting TA?
I enjoy saying cryptic remarks, and explaining later.
Here's where I'm at right now.
I find Iguana very townie at this point. I haven't played with him much before, but he's active, and that counts for something. More than something. And furthermore, I like his posts, and I like the way he's playing. There's a lot he has going for him.
Now there's 2 possibilities.
1. I'm way, way wrong, and Iguana is in fact scum. I don't believe it now. But if it's true, this game will not go very smoothly.
2. I'm right, and Iguana is town. Iguana has posted so much at this point that people surely have to be townreading the lizard, right? No! Because by my count, only 3 have. And when you're scum, you want to be posting correct townreads D1 to gain credibility, and preferably on the most townie people. If Iguana is town, 3 other people here know this. I have to think that one is going to take notice of his talkative play and give him town status, or at least townie. Which doesn't leave many possibilities.
Both of those things together, it's seems to me highly likely there's a scum in {Iguana, ss, TA, Skumpy}. There's already an 86% chance of that, but whatever. And of that group, there's one I can't vote for, there's one I won't vote for, and there's one I'd be happy to vote for but would rather stick around longer because I pity it. So therefore, TA it is.
So that's me. Wrong? Possibly. Logical? I'd like to think so.
Also worth noting that in direct response, Iguana said 'good case! I'm voting ss!', which was the bulk of the evidence for me of TA being the mason.
Now, given that I'm town, that Iguana is town, and that TA is all but certain town, it seems ss must be scum based on the case. I must admit that I had largely ignored this for the better part of D2 in favor of other theories, but as the day's progressed and TA has revealed himself as mason, silver has launched up my scum reads, despite his direct protestations that he wouldn't white knight as scum (as a reminder, I don't care about white knight in the case, only about townread). Why am I not voting there right now? A couple reasons.
First and foremost, the coalition, which we said would be through D2. Am I breaking it? Well, not yet sadly (cue Galz pulling out his hair and screaming from the grave). There are other candidates at this point who I do have my eye on. Namely Raptor. However, whereas yesterday I said I would not start/join a wagon on ss and would not hammer him even if it was needed, today I am sorry to tell you, ss, that I will be nullifying the latter part of that. If there are 5 votes on him and you need the hammer from me, just call my name and I'll be there.
Secondly: As previously mentioned, I'd rather be on Raptor for the time being. The big reason is that there is something in the ss/Raptor team that wants examination. I'm well aware ss is the only other person on the Raptor wagon, and that me posting this could drive him away.
But:
- Raptor goes VLA, and votes EFHW over ss. Could be the case if both are town. Would definitely be the case if ss is scum, EFHW is town
- Raptor lists me/silver/? as the team, because of the coalition, and then votes me. If I get lynched and flip town, hey, ss isn't so scummy any more, is he?
- Bussing? Yadda yadda. Scum ss could be in the mentality I caught Raptor red-handed and has to vote to save face? Maybe that's a stretch
- The Galz case against ss. That dang smarty pants, he knows everything!
- The ss wagon EOD push was Galz, Simon, EFHW. I've said before I'm leaning town on EFHW because I'm leaning scum on Raptor. If I'm right on this and on Simon (more assumptions! Yay!), that makes this a 3 town wagon
So in conclusion: not voting ss right now because I don't need to be. If I believe both are scum, I'll vote for the one I'm more confident in as being scum and the one who I didn't make a promise to.
Question for Swan: Why do you think Raptor is town?
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What do you feel now?
Vote Count 2.3
Skumpy (2): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (1): DatSwan
Xxraptorslayer96 (2): Skumpy, silverspawn
Simon Jester (1): Robz888
SpaceAnemone (2): Simon Jester, EFHW
Not Voting: (2) Twistedarcher, SpaceAnemone
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm.
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I've seen days involving dual-town wagons, and have made similar observations as you, only to find the entire scum team was on one wagon and the other wagon and VLAers consisted of more than half the town and no scum. Scum does not necessarily need to spread themselves thin, grouping up can be a viable strategy, since it's apparently not something you believe is likely.
I'm picking three relatively stalled wagons, and in each case saying that I believe that either the wagon should be on scum, or that scum should have had time to try to get onto it. I'm being careful to state "at least one of" certain groups of people should be quite likely to be scum, rather than "exactly one of".
And sure, I accept that picking three criteria and ignoring scenarios that don't exactly fit those three would be shortsighted of me. I'd feel happier with more evidence and more constraints, and a "softer" application of constraints, but I'm working with what I have.
Raptor's scum, then there's only 2 scum between the 2 wagons, and there's a lot more possibilities, eh?
That's why I was looking at the earlier game as well. And if Raptor is scum, that makes me a lot more confident of EFHW being town.
The Raptor-EFHW thing is more interesting. ss's activity on that wagon ought to make him a candidate as well, and then there's all but certainly a scum in those 3.
Agreed. Though note that both silver and Simon were on the wagon earlier. It's the period of the game around #250 that I'm looking at in particular. The EFHW wagon is stalled at 3 people (EFHW and Raptor being the unknowns), and the other obvious wagon is on TA, with Robz, you and Simon. What are the scums trying to do at that point in the game if the EFHW wagon is three-towns-on-town?
This is how things looked at #278:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
Simon Jester (3): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan
Your hypothesis is that both Raptor and silver are scum, which makes EFHW look really townie. She's the next person to join that three-person TA wagon, so from your PoV, then Robz is almost definitely the third of the trio, given your vigorous defence of Simon. Does that work for you? If not, who is the third scum here, and what is their motivation with the current voting pattern that made them want to stay away from two good town-on-town wagons?
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You are assuming any stalled wagon with 3 or more members has scum on it or is on scum. There is no definite 1:1 between me and raptor. The wagon stalling isn't that informative. The 5 and 6 member wagons are more likely to have scum on them, but that is also not guaranteed.
Yes, I'm not saying it's a guaranteed 1-v-1, but I'm surprised not to see more suspicion between the pair of you, particularly in the context of where the other current wagons were going. For example, see the last bit of my response to Skumpy, above.
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Skumpy's case on silver seems to boil down to silver stating a townread on iguana Day 1. How does your scum!narrative account for his behavior at EOD?
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today I am sorry to tell you, ss, that I will be nullifying the latter part of that. If there are 5 votes on him and you need the hammer from me, just call my name and I'll be there.
This is 100% unacceptable and makes you a liar. If you don't take that back next post I'll policy vote for you until you are lynched regardless of my read of you.
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agreed that the case is bad.
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@Space, you seem to be assuming ideal scum play at every point. I've noticed many people doing that in recent games, but it's extremely unlikely.
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gkrieg's case on Skumpy is also super weak.
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Honestly, the case is so bad that I'm townreading you pretty hard for making it. I read it again and it really only consists of me saying iguana is towny.
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so do me the favor and don't violate truth because I really don't want to vote for you, but I will do it if you think you can just break a contract.
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To back up on that, I think as town you have more of an inside view on the cases you make, and as scum more of an outside view. You certainly try to take on an inside view – at least I do that as scum – but in the end you usually evaluate it for how you think it'll be perceived. It's hard to see how that case survives such a process. And the other thing is that the group (Iguana, ss, TA, Skumpy) probably has no scum in them, which makes it even less likely to be a thing scum would say.
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Falling behind here a bit, don't have much to add at the moment. Will try to catch up as soon as I can before deadline.
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Falling behind here a bit, don't have much to add at the moment. Will try to catch up as soon as I can before deadline.
Same.
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@Space, you seem to be assuming ideal scum play at every point. I've noticed many people doing that in recent games, but it's extremely unlikely.
The fact we haven't lynched scum yet means they're at least doing something right :-P
More seriously, I picked out three suggested constraints from a day and a half's voting history, and invited people to comment. Do you think any of my suggested deductions is likely to be true? If so, which, and with what level of confidence?
Are you just refusing to comment with any level of detail because of some kind of Awaclusian principle? Or do you think my entire approach is unworkably flawed? If the latter, what do you suggest instead?
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gkrieg's case on Skumpy is also super weak.
As I state in the case.
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Space and TA are just about 100% town for me right nowl
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Space and TA are just about 100% town for me right nowl
Why? Afair, scum!space is calm and makes sense, just like they do here. What's the tell?
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(And if you have the same confidence in a claimed mason as you do in a totally unclaimed random person, I would accuse you of being poorly calibrated)
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Space and TA are just about 100% town for me right nowl
Why? Afair, scum!space is calm and makes sense, just like they do here. What's the tell?
I won't tell you the tell, because then they would know the tell. But you are correct that I have more confidence in TA, but he has seemed much less active, so my town read on space is from what they have said. Basically I trust both of them a lot right now
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ok, that's fair.
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The Raptor-EFHW thing is more interesting. ss's activity on that wagon ought to make him a candidate as well, and then there's all but certainly a scum in those 3.
Agreed. Though note that both silver and Simon were on the wagon earlier. It's the period of the game around #250 that I'm looking at in particular. The EFHW wagon is stalled at 3 people (EFHW and Raptor being the unknowns), and the other obvious wagon is on TA, with Robz, you and Simon. What are the scums trying to do at that point in the game if the EFHW wagon is three-towns-on-town?
This is how things looked at #278:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
Simon Jester (3): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan
Your hypothesis is that both Raptor and silver are scum, which makes EFHW look really townie. She's the next person to join that three-person TA wagon, so from your PoV, then Robz is almost definitely the third of the trio, given your vigorous defence of Simon. Does that work for you? If not, who is the third scum here, and what is their motivation with the current voting pattern that made them want to stay away from two good town-on-town wagons?
I won't speak for all people, but for me: as scum D1, I'm trying to make the most reasonable case possible, which means I may not be aiming for the most dangerous town or hopping on the biggest and easiest wagon. Gkrieg could be scum who thought I was doing a bad job as town and has tunneled me relentlessly. It would be a great move, since nobody's voted him. To be clear, it's also not a hypothesis I'm super confident I'm in, so I'm not ruling you and Swan out of the picture. Robz/ss/Raptor is certainly a possibility. It's not the only one.
Not a great answer, I apologize. But if I think EFHW is town, I don't understand how her move to a big wagon affects the people already there? I guess it's more Monty Hall.
Skumpy's case on silver seems to boil down to silver stating a townread on iguana Day 1. How does your scum!narrative account for his behavior at EOD?
I've answered this before. I believe it was a dual-town wagon. Therefore, I have no interest in the EOD. Scum tries to look towny as possible. silver could be town who wants to get a lynch through. silver could be scum acting like a town who wants to get a lynch through. Unless Simon's scum, I don't care. As for the case based on a townread on Iguana, it started that way, but after a readthrough, I feel like there's more to it than that.
To ss: That's fair, and I was trying to set a precedent here for something, so sure. But even if I was to stick to my breaking-of-the-contract due to strong confidence in my theory, I have a tough time imagining you getting lynched over Raptor today, so it probably would never have come to it anyways.
But as for the case being bad, I would strongly disagree with that. It's my case, but still. Of the bulleted list, #3 might be a stretch, #4 may not be that relevant. Of the other 3, where is my logic going wrong? Yes, this is mainly based on my feeling that Raptor is scum, so it could be way off. Therefore, I need to try to verify it by voting Raptor (though you being scum without Raptor could also be a thing). And if Raptor flips scum, a lot can still happen, there's a very good chance I wouldn't vote you the next day.
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To ss: That's fair [...]
good.
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@Space, you seem to be assuming ideal scum play at every point. I've noticed many people doing that in recent games, but it's extremely unlikely.
The fact we haven't lynched scum yet means they're at least doing something right :-P
More seriously, I picked out three suggested constraints from a day and a half's voting history, and invited people to comment. Do you think any of my suggested deductions is likely to be true? If so, which, and with what level of confidence?
Are you just refusing to comment with any level of detail because of some kind of Awaclusian principle? Or do you think my entire approach is unworkably flawed? If the latter, what do you suggest instead?
You have my response to point #1. Points #2 and #3 don't help much. More later
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The list at the end isn't as bad as the iguana thing. I'm mostly townreading you for that.
Ok, have a point-by-point response..
Raptor goes VLA, and votes EFHW over ss. Could be the case if both are town. Would definitely be the case if ss is scum, EFHW is town
If EFHW was confirmed town and raptor was confirmed scum, then I would certainly agree that this constitutes some evidence. Bayes says so. But neither of them are confirmed. None of all three are confirmed! All you have is unconfirmed player #1 voting for unconfirmed player #2 over unconfirmed player #3.
Also if bussing is a thing, then why didn't raptor bus? If bussing isn't a thing, then why am I actively trying to get raptor lynched? Am I particularly known to buss as scum? I don't think so.
Raptor lists me/silver/? as the team, because of the coalition, and then votes me. If I get lynched and flip town, hey, ss isn't so scummy any more, is he?
I'm pretty agnostic as to whether it would be easier to use this to argue that I'm scummy or townie.
Bussing? Yadda yadda. Scum ss could be in the mentality I caught Raptor red-handed and has to vote to save face? Maybe that's a stretch
This is an argument for me being town.
The Galz case against ss. That dang smarty pants, he knows everything!
There is basically no overlap between your two cases. Do you think anything galz said was about me was alignment indicative? If so what?
The ss wagon EOD push was Galz, Simon, EFHW. I've said before I'm leaning town on EFHW because I'm leaning scum on Raptor. If I'm right on this and on Simon (more assumptions! Yay!), that makes this a 3 town wagon
Only galz is confirmed town. The other two are my second biggest scum read and a null read.
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So. I certainly think that you should think that I am very likely town in the event that raptor flips scum.
But, if you disagree, that's fine, as long as you are consistent. Right now I'm worried that either raptor will flip scum and you'll say that'll make me scum because he didn't vote for me once, or he'll flip town and that'll make me scum because I was trying to get him lynched. Both of these things seem rationalizable.
So how about you tell me right now which outcome makes me look better in your book? That way you don't get to choose afterwards.
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The list at the end isn't as bad as the iguana thing. I'm mostly townreading you for that.
Ok, have a point-by-point response..
Raptor goes VLA, and votes EFHW over ss. Could be the case if both are town. Would definitely be the case if ss is scum, EFHW is town
If EFHW was confirmed town and raptor was confirmed scum, then I would certainly agree that this constitutes some evidence. Bayes says so. But neither of them are confirmed. None of all three are confirmed! All you have is unconfirmed player #1 voting for unconfirmed player #2 over unconfirmed player #3.
Also if bussing is a thing, then why didn't raptor bus? If bussing isn't a thing, then why am I actively trying to get raptor lynched? Am I particularly known to buss as scum? I don't think so.
Raptor lists me/silver/? as the team, because of the coalition, and then votes me. If I get lynched and flip town, hey, ss isn't so scummy any more, is he?
I'm pretty agnostic as to whether it would be easier to use this to argue that I'm scummy or townie.
Bussing? Yadda yadda. Scum ss could be in the mentality I caught Raptor red-handed and has to vote to save face? Maybe that's a stretch
This is an argument for me being town.
The Galz case against ss. That dang smarty pants, he knows everything!
There is basically no overlap between your two cases. Do you think anything galz said was about me was alignment indicative? If so what?
The ss wagon EOD push was Galz, Simon, EFHW. I've said before I'm leaning town on EFHW because I'm leaning scum on Raptor. If I'm right on this and on Simon (more assumptions! Yay!), that makes this a 3 town wagon
Only galz is confirmed town. The other two are my second biggest scum read and a null read.
1. Correct. So I'm voting Raptor to see. If he's scum, my trust for EFHW goes way up. I don't believe in a bus here because Raptor goes VLA. You don't park your vote on a teammate in this situation on D1. In general, bussing is a thing. For you, I don't know. I've never seen you as scum, I only have your word for it.
2. It seems easier to me to view you as scummy from this. Though I get that it could paint you as townie.
3. Don't see why. Null at best, though null most likely.
4. I think Galz and I just like to look at different things. It seems that he likes to use more of a tone based argument (not the right word for it, I don't how better to explain), I'm trying to use the most concrete evidence I can get my hands on. My initial suspicion of you was a result of POE, his was not. But the point is he's a smart guy. If he says something, he could be right. Unless it's about me. Again, this is another of the points I'm not placing too much weight on.
5. That Simon read is your choice. I think it's bad. More on that later. As for EFHW, you yourself have acknowledged scum Raptor makes town EFHW. This theory could be totally wrong IF Raptor is town. I don't know this until he flips. All I do know is I have given him numerous chances to try and prove himself this day, but he hasn't given anything.
So. I certainly think that you should think that I am very likely town in the event that raptor flips scum.
But, if you disagree, that's fine, as long as you are consistent. Right now I'm worried that either raptor will flip scum and you'll say that'll make me scum because he didn't vote for me once, or he'll flip town and that'll make me scum because I was trying to get him lynched. Both of these things seem rationalizable.
So how about you tell me right now which outcome makes me look better in your book? That way you don't get to choose afterwards.
Admittedly, this actually was one of things I was thinking about, in that there is a case against you no matter the flip (and assuming TA is the NK). I'm not sure I can give you an answer to your satisfaction, but I do think there's a lot that can happen before a D3 vote. 12 vs 13 players bothers me a lot because we likely have only 1 safe mislynch left. If Raptor flips town, I'm probably dead tomorrow because people are going to trust me a lot less than do already. If they do at all, in some cases. There's no more 'narrowing down' opportunities, it's just straight up 'vote for the scummiest people'.
I'm going to reserve the right to change my mind D3 because this is mafia, opinions are like leaves in the wind. Meantime, I could vote you either way based on the flip, as you yourself were speculating. What I will say, however, is that with 3 scum left out of 7 unknowns if he flips town, my vote would probably go to Robz (or alternatively EFHW, based on my gut that this indeed a 1 v 1).
2 possibilities:
1. Simon is scum. 2 more scum. Where? Raptor would ideally be out of the picture by then. So either they're both bussing, or 1 chose not to. It's still unlikely to me Simon/EFHW is a team (choice between 5-5 of a town and scum, she picks the scum). So both scum were bussing early then? If that's not the case, there's only 1 remaining suspect: Robz.
2. Simon is town. 3 scum in that group of 6 voting him is a possibility, I need to keep that in mind. But if it's not, same reasoning as before applies. 6 of the 10 town were either VLA or voting Galz if Robz is town. Odd.
If he is scum, we still get the mislynch for narrowing down. I could reconsider my options then if there's another direction I want to go in.
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If raptor flipping town makes me more likely scum, than raptor flipping scum has to make me more likely town. This is an absolute incontrovertible law. P(A | B) > P(A) => P(A | not B) < P(A). I get that you don't want to settle on any thing, but I'd just like to point it out. if you think both fits your theory, then your theory is not consistent with the laws of probability.
That said, ok. Then let's just try to lynch raptor and tomorrow you can rationalize reason what to do next.
Anyone not wanting to lynch raptor: what's your alternative?
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If raptor flipping town makes me more likely scum, than raptor flipping scum has to make me more likely town. This is an absolute incontrovertible law. P(A | B) > P(A) => P(A | not B) < P(A). I get that you don't want to settle on any thing, but I'd just like to point it out. if you think both fits your theory, then your theory is not consistent with the laws of probability.
That said, ok. Then let's just try to lynch raptor and tomorrow you can rationalize reason what to do next.
Anyone not wanting to lynch raptor: what's your alternative?
Wasn’t asked or me so i am not answering the question per se - but i would like to point out this is a faulty silogism. One could absolutely assume that “if player A flips skum, they also think it makes Player B look skummy, while simotainiously assuming if Player A flips town it does not mean anything in regards to Player B.”
Perfect example would be the D1 wagon - if Simon would of been skum i would highly suspected Iguana as skum. However, if Simon were to lynch and be the Town, it would hold very little merit on Iguana’s alignment.
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I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.
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Question for Swan: Why do you think Raptor is town?
Missed this.
Short and simple - I got two reasons
Gut + the reception of your "Not VLA" thing.
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I think it would be a good idea if TA were to choose a claim order in case we end up there tomorrow and they are killed tonight.
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I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.
Kind of like this post?
You are flexing your "Town!Meta" too hard here bro
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It’s not intentional, I’m just utterly disengaged from this game for some reason.
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Sorry that sounds blaming. It’s not anybody’s fault but mine
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If raptor flipping town makes me more likely scum, than raptor flipping scum has to make me more likely town. This is an absolute incontrovertible law. P(A | B) > P(A) => P(A | not B) < P(A). I get that you don't want to settle on any thing, but I'd just like to point it out. if you think both fits your theory, then your theory is not consistent with the laws of probability.
That said, ok. Then let's just try to lynch raptor and tomorrow you can rationalize reason what to do next.
Anyone not wanting to lynch raptor: what's your alternative?
\
you?
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Sorry that sounds blaming. It’s not anybody’s fault but mine
Life sucks. Then you post.... at least like a maybe a reads list?
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The list at the end isn't as bad as the iguana thing. I'm mostly townreading you for that.
Ok, have a point-by-point response..
Raptor goes VLA, and votes EFHW over ss. Could be the case if both are town. Would definitely be the case if ss is scum, EFHW is town
If EFHW was confirmed town and raptor was confirmed scum, then I would certainly agree that this constitutes some evidence. Bayes says so. But neither of them are confirmed. None of all three are confirmed! All you have is unconfirmed player #1 voting for unconfirmed player #2 over unconfirmed player #3.
Also if bussing is a thing, then why didn't raptor bus? If bussing isn't a thing, then why am I actively trying to get raptor lynched? Am I particularly known to buss as scum? I don't think so.
Raptor lists me/silver/? as the team, because of the coalition, and then votes me. If I get lynched and flip town, hey, ss isn't so scummy any more, is he?
I'm pretty agnostic as to whether it would be easier to use this to argue that I'm scummy or townie.
Bussing? Yadda yadda. Scum ss could be in the mentality I caught Raptor red-handed and has to vote to save face? Maybe that's a stretch
This is an argument for me being town.
The Galz case against ss. That dang smarty pants, he knows everything!
There is basically no overlap between your two cases. Do you think anything galz said was about me was alignment indicative? If so what?
The ss wagon EOD push was Galz, Simon, EFHW. I've said before I'm leaning town on EFHW because I'm leaning scum on Raptor. If I'm right on this and on Simon (more assumptions! Yay!), that makes this a 3 town wagon
Only galz is confirmed town. The other two are my second biggest scum read and a null read.
1. Correct. So I'm voting Raptor to see. If he's scum, my trust for EFHW goes way up. I don't believe in a bus here because Raptor goes VLA. You don't park your vote on a teammate in this situation on D1. In general, bussing is a thing. For you, I don't know. I've never seen you as scum, I only have your word for it.
2. It seems easier to me to view you as scummy from this. Though I get that it could paint you as townie.
3. Don't see why. Null at best, though null most likely.
4. I think Galz and I just like to look at different things. It seems that he likes to use more of a tone based argument (not the right word for it, I don't how better to explain), I'm trying to use the most concrete evidence I can get my hands on. My initial suspicion of you was a result of POE, his was not. But the point is he's a smart guy. If he says something, he could be right. Unless it's about me. Again, this is another of the points I'm not placing too much weight on.
5. That Simon read is your choice. I think it's bad. More on that later. As for EFHW, you yourself have acknowledged scum Raptor makes town EFHW. This theory could be totally wrong IF Raptor is town. I don't know this until he flips. All I do know is I have given him numerous chances to try and prove himself this day, but he hasn't given anything.
So. I certainly think that you should think that I am very likely town in the event that raptor flips scum.
But, if you disagree, that's fine, as long as you are consistent. Right now I'm worried that either raptor will flip scum and you'll say that'll make me scum because he didn't vote for me once, or he'll flip town and that'll make me scum because I was trying to get him lynched. Both of these things seem rationalizable.
So how about you tell me right now which outcome makes me look better in your book? That way you don't get to choose afterwards.
Admittedly, this actually was one of things I was thinking about, in that there is a case against you no matter the flip (and assuming TA is the NK). I'm not sure I can give you an answer to your satisfaction, but I do think there's a lot that can happen before a D3 vote. 12 vs 13 players bothers me a lot because we likely have only 1 safe mislynch left. If Raptor flips town, I'm probably dead tomorrow because people are going to trust me a lot less than do already. If they do at all, in some cases. There's no more 'narrowing down' opportunities, it's just straight up 'vote for the scummiest people'.
I'm going to reserve the right to change my mind D3 because this is mafia, opinions are like leaves in the wind. Meantime, I could vote you either way based on the flip, as you yourself were speculating. What I will say, however, is that with 3 scum left out of 7 unknowns if he flips town, my vote would probably go to Robz (or alternatively EFHW, based on my gut that this indeed a 1 v 1).
2 possibilities:
1. Simon is scum. 2 more scum. Where? Raptor would ideally be out of the picture by then. So either they're both bussing, or 1 chose not to. It's still unlikely to me Simon/EFHW is a team (choice between 5-5 of a town and scum, she picks the scum). So both scum were bussing early then? If that's not the case, there's only 1 remaining suspect: Robz.
2. Simon is town. 3 scum in that group of 6 voting him is a possibility, I need to keep that in mind. But if it's not, same reasoning as before applies. 6 of the 10 town were either VLA or voting Galz if Robz is town. Odd.
If he is scum, we still get the mislynch for narrowing down. I could reconsider my options then if there's another direction I want to go in.
either the latter parts of this post are to say you find Simon skummy - yet are not voting for him, or is isolating specifically Raptor. I just want to be clear - do you think Simon is skum or XXR? (or both)?
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Wasn’t asked or me so i am not answering the question per se - but i would like to point out this is a faulty silogism. One could absolutely assume that “if player A flips skum, they also think it makes Player B look skummy, while simotainiously assuming if Player A flips town it does not mean anything in regards to Player B.”
No. You can absolutely not correctly do this, under no circumstances, never ever ever ever. if A coming true is evidence for B, then A coming false must be evidence against B. This is provable from first principles. See here.. (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jiBFC7DcCrZjGmZnJ/conservation-of-expected-evidence)
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If raptor flipping town makes me more likely scum, than raptor flipping scum has to make me more likely town. This is an absolute incontrovertible law. P(A | B) > P(A) => P(A | not B) < P(A). I get that you don't want to settle on any thing, but I'd just like to point it out. if you think both fits your theory, then your theory is not consistent with the laws of probability.
That said, ok. Then let's just try to lynch raptor and tomorrow you can rationalize reason what to do next.
Anyone not wanting to lynch raptor: what's your alternative?
Wasn’t asked or me so i am not answering the question per se - but i would like to point out this is a faulty silogism. One could absolutely assume that “if player A flips skum, they also think it makes Player B look skummy, while simotainiously assuming if Player A flips town it does not mean anything in regards to Player B.”
Perfect example would be the D1 wagon - if Simon would of been skum i would highly suspected Iguana as skum. However, if Simon were to lynch and be the Town, it would hold very little merit on Iguana’s alignment.
Probability wise, it's correct. I'm just not sure if this is the right scenario to use probability like that. If it is, I don't have a good answer for it.
Question for Swan: Why do you think Raptor is town?
Missed this.
Short and simple - I got two reasons
Gut + the reception of your "Not VLA" thing.
If raptor flipping town makes me more likely scum, than raptor flipping scum has to make me more likely town. This is an absolute incontrovertible law. P(A | B) > P(A) => P(A | not B) < P(A). I get that you don't want to settle on any thing, but I'd just like to point it out. if you think both fits your theory, then your theory is not consistent with the laws of probability.
That said, ok. Then let's just try to lynch raptor and tomorrow you can rationalize reason what to do next.
Anyone not wanting to lynch raptor: what's your alternative?
\
you?
And now these posts make me wonder you're scum and Raptor's town, if only by gut. I'm not switching my vote, I'm just obligated to say this so that at the end of the game I can say "Well, I wasn't tooootally off".
Look: I'm well aware Raptor could be town. There's some similarities to his best town performance, and many similarities to his lurky town performances. There's some notable differences from his scum performance. But there also comes a time when I just get to "If all you've given in 10 days excluding VLA is a case against me, a town, based on 2 sentences in 526 posts (which even if it was correct in an alternate reality, doesn't make it a good case), why do I want to play with you and keep you around when I have begged numerous times for you to get involved and do a readthrough?" Yes, I'm sure he's busy. But you can set aside 15 minutes a day to think about things. But if he's scum, he KNOWS it's underwhelming, he KNOWS it's not enough, and it is giving me pause now that I consider it. Maybe I'm approaching this game with too much of the "I'm OK with losing as long as it's other peoples' fault" mentality. And then again, I can't townread somebody unless they put in an effort to get me to townread them.
I'm going to reserve the right to change my mind D3 because this is mafia, opinions are like leaves in the wind. Meantime, I could vote you either way based on the flip, as you yourself were speculating. What I will say, however, is that with 3 scum left out of 7 unknowns if he flips town, my vote would probably go to Robz (or alternatively EFHW, based on my gut that this indeed a 1 v 1).
2 possibilities:
1. Simon is scum. 2 more scum. Where? Raptor would ideally be out of the picture by then. So either they're both bussing, or 1 chose not to. It's still unlikely to me Simon/EFHW is a team (choice between 5-5 of a town and scum, she picks the scum). So both scum were bussing early then? If that's not the case, there's only 1 remaining suspect: Robz.
2. Simon is town. 3 scum in that group of 6 voting him is a possibility, I need to keep that in mind. But if it's not, same reasoning as before applies. 6 of the 10 town were either VLA or voting Galz if Robz is town. Odd.
If he is scum, we still get the mislynch for narrowing down. I could reconsider my options then if there's another direction I want to go in.
either the latter parts of this post are to say you find Simon skummy - yet are not voting for him, or is isolating specifically Raptor. I just want to be clear - do you think Simon is skum or XXR? (or both)?
The last sentence, the 'he' is for Raptor. The stuff before is me laying out reasoning for voting Robz were Raptor to be the lynch today based on EOD and that scummers often spread themselves out amongst the wagons.
Here's the thing about Simon: I KNOW there was 0 scum pushing in his favor EOD1. Unfortunately, I'm the only one who knows that. Scum knew there were several PR's in play, it's a risky move to go after one of their own, even though it does feel to me most of the town PR's are pretty useless, masons excepted. Don't start a big discussion with me on that last part, we don't have time for it.
TA, you do need to weigh in here. I know you're having internet problems, but it would be a big help if you can find away around that for just 2 days.
PPE
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I think it would be a good idea if TA were to choose a claim order in case we end up there tomorrow and they are killed tonight.
Hey, this is really good idea. Why did we never do this before?
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I think it would be a good idea if TA were to choose a claim order in case we end up there tomorrow and they are killed tonight.
Hey, this is really good idea. Why did we never do this before?
Is it obvious we should be claiming tomorrow? If yes (and maybe even if no), then do you think the town RBer ought to just claim now, and force scum to counter or let us have an IC tomorrow? Again, I am not at all expecting a successful RB the remainder of the game.
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you?
You don't seem to ever want to give me an answer that I can understand, but – why?
I think it would be a good idea if TA were to choose a claim order in case we end up there tomorrow and they are killed tonight.
Hey, this is really good idea. Why did we never do this before?
Is it obvious we should be claiming tomorrow? If yes (and maybe even if no), then do you think the town RBer ought to just claim now, and force scum to counter or let us have an IC tomorrow? Again, I am not at all expecting a successful RB the remainder of the game.
It's not obvious I think, but posting a claim-list pre-emptively is a good idea anyway. We don't have to use it.
General wisdom is that one does not discuss what PRs should do unless one feels strongly that they claim right now. RB has to decide for themself.
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I think I'm against the end-of-day claim order. At least, if this were a drafting-style setup, then it's clearly bad to give scum a heads-up about the order they'll be claiming in right before we go into a night phase.. that just gives them extra help by greatly reducing the amount of if-then planning they have to do.
For a setup like this one, the impact of that is a bit less clear, but I'm unconvinced that the benefits outweigh the risks, or that of they do, then the claim order itself is really critical enough to have to be decided by an IC over town consensus.
I'm not even through my first coffee of the day yet, though, so that's definitely posted for discussion rather than because I'm feeling confident that it's the right stance..
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What do you feel now?
Vote Count 2.4
Skumpy (2): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (1): DatSwan
Xxraptorslayer96 (2): Skumpy, silverspawn
Simon Jester (1): Robz888
SpaceAnemone (2): Simon Jester, EFHW
Not Voting: (2) Twistedarcher, SpaceAnemone
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm.
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I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.
Same.
Skumpy seems so clearly scum to me. Even looking back on the Space vote count records it makes sense. He seems to Be pushing a lynch pretty hard for me just be a less active player. He seems to of buddied SS off of a D1 no vote agreement. I don’t know if that makes SS scum also and it’s premeditated, or he’s just a pawn.
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Reads list
Town:
TA -IC, I believe his claim.
Space - the number analysis seems to helpful to be a scum move, but I’ve never played with them before that i remember, does scum!space do this as well?
Null:
Swan- helpful,just hasn’t sold me on town
Gkrieg- hasn’t sold me as on town
Robz- hasn’t said much
EFHW-possible scum based off of What I was there for D1 but has seemed pretty low key D2
Simon- could be part of the scum team
Skum:
SS - could just of been friended by skumpy, if so don’t fall for it he’s
Skumpy- didn’t like his D1 votes.
Probbaly looks bad that the two people voting for me are the two I think are scum but i don’t understand there case on me. Because I was “seen online”?
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On avg. how much time do you spend on the forum pre day? Question is for everyone
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I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.
Same.
Skumpy seems so clearly scum to me. Even looking back on the Space vote count records it makes sense. He seems to Be pushing a lynch pretty hard for me just be a less active player. He seems to of buddied SS off of a D1 no vote agreement. I don’t know if that makes SS scum also and it’s premeditated, or he’s just a pawn.
Yeah, because I'm good enough to make silver a pawn. If your case is based around me and ss having a pact: you had the 4th post in the game and the privilege of posting right after the coalition offer. You said:
Hello
Hello
Hello
Hello
and yet you're suspicious of a pre-plan? Fo'real? As for the rest, I'm guessing you're currently phone posting, but I expect something more or an elaboration on 'the timing of your votes' when you get home. I suck D1, that's a constant for me (except when I'm scum, then I catch my teammates!)
The push for you has nothing do with 'Who's Online'. I've explained why many times. It's a shame that talking and risking putting out everything I can for it to be scumread makes me scum for you, but so be it. If I vote you, and you barely protest except by OMGUSing, why is that supposed to make me want to lynch you less?
Space - the number analysis seems to helpful to be a scum move, but I’ve never played with them before that i remember, does scum!space do this as well?
Yes.
EFHW-possible scum based off of What I was there for D1 but has seemed pretty low key D2
So Space's post that likely you or EFHW is scum does nothing for you?
Skum:
SS - could just of been friended by skumpy, if so don’t fall for it he’s
Priceless. If anything, I'm falling for his stuff (but I shan't be sweet-talked). I'll let him tear this particular point to shreds.
On avg. how much time do you spend on the forum pre day? Question is for everyone
Lots. Most of anyone here probably right now, sadly. But these aren't answers I'm really interested in.
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I mean, thirty seconds or four hours. It really depends on how many mafia games are ongoing and how active they are. There's no consistency.
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Awaclus replaces Twistedarcher, effective immediately.
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What do you feel now?
Vote Count 2.4
Skumpy (2): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (1): DatSwan
Xxraptorslayer96 (2): Skumpy, silverspawn
Simon Jester (1): Robz888
SpaceAnemone (2): Simon Jester, EFHW
Not Voting: (2) Awaclus, SpaceAnemone
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm. That's in 25 hours.
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Vote: Skumpy
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I'll take a closer look at this game on Wednesday, I'm heading to bed now.
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Vote: Skumpy
Want to say anything else about your masonry with Iguana?
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With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm. That's in 25 hours.
No deadline extension?
Vote: Skumpy
On the other hand, Awaclus never votes correctly.
That's a lie. Vote: Skumpy
This is one the funniest "I'll show you!" moments in the history of Western civilization. If you want to prove my point, be my guest.
I take solace in knowing you'll be in the graveyard with me by the end of the week. GG everybody, this is a lost cause.
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No deadline extension?
No.
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Of the current wagons (I'm even counting 1-vote wagons), I think I would only lynch Raptor, Skumpy, or Simon.
Not feeling Space at all (highest town read other than Awaclus) and silver has seemed townie so far.
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No deadline extension?
No.
Fooey.
I honestly don't know what to do when I watch NM12 get like 100+ posts over a few hours and like 4 here in the same timeframe, with deadline a day away. When multiple people say "Nothing really has happened, I don't have opinions", chances are there's a correlation for it. I know people are busy, I know this isn't the first priority in people's lives, but I hate being the target when I feel like I'm one of the only ones putting up a fight and trying to throw ideas around. Maybe lurking is the way to go, but I have too much pride for that. I'm not angry, just disappointed, and maybe going to go drink some water to help nullify my salt content.
Unvote
Of the current wagons (I'm even counting 1-vote wagons), I think I would only lynch Raptor, Skumpy, or Simon.
Not feeling Space at all (highest town read other than Awaclus) and silver has seemed townie so far.
There's time yet for another wagon. You don't need to tell the read, but just how confident are you in it that Space is indeed town?
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Well I think you're town, but I certainly won't try to convince Awaclus of that.
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No deadline extension?
No.
Fooey.
I honestly don't know what to do when I watch NM12 get like 100+ posts over a few hours and like 4 here in the same timeframe, with deadline a day away. When multiple people say "Nothing really has happened, I don't have opinions", chances are there's a correlation for it. I know people are busy, I know this isn't the first priority in people's lives, but I hate being the target when I feel like I'm one of the only ones putting up a fight and trying to throw ideas around. Maybe lurking is the way to go, but I have too much pride for that. I'm not angry, just disappointed, and maybe going to go drink some water to help nullify my salt content.
Unvote
Of the current wagons (I'm even counting 1-vote wagons), I think I would only lynch Raptor, Skumpy, or Simon.
Not feeling Space at all (highest town read other than Awaclus) and silver has seemed townie so far.
There's time yet for another wagon. You don't need to tell the read, but just how confident are you in it that Space is indeed town?
Do not mention ongoing games. This is the first warning
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Yeah, that's a really strict rule here. Don't ever break it, no matter how trivial it seems.
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I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.
I feel that I have to say the same. The raptor case is not too convincing and Skumpy being scum would be... please don't be. I can't find a narrative for scum defending me that much in this state, really. Lynhing me or Galz wouldn't matter to scum so his townread on me is likely genuine.
I don't like gkrieg this game. I'm not an expert on your metas by no means but he feels off.
SpaceA:s wagon was interesting though I couldn't learn much from it. I think there could be a good idea to choose between raptor or EFHW, but honestly I don't know.
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No deadline extension?
No.
Fooey.
I honestly don't know what to do when I watch NM12 get like 100+ posts over a few hours and like 4 here in the same timeframe, with deadline a day away. When multiple people say "Nothing really has happened, I don't have opinions", chances are there's a correlation for it. I know people are busy, I know this isn't the first priority in people's lives, but I hate being the target when I feel like I'm one of the only ones putting up a fight and trying to throw ideas around. Maybe lurking is the way to go, but I have too much pride for that. I'm not angry, just disappointed, and maybe going to go drink some water to help nullify my salt content.
Unvote
Of the current wagons (I'm even counting 1-vote wagons), I think I would only lynch Raptor, Skumpy, or Simon.
Not feeling Space at all (highest town read other than Awaclus) and silver has seemed townie so far.
There's time yet for another wagon. You don't need to tell the read, but just how confident are you in it that Space is indeed town?
Do not mention ongoing games. This is the first warning
Sorries. Duly noted.
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I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.
I feel that I have to say the same. The raptor case is not too convincing and Skumpy being scum would be... please don't be. I can't find a narrative for scum defending me that much in this state, really. Lynhing me or Galz wouldn't matter to scum so his townread on me is likely genuine.
I don't like gkrieg this game. I'm not an expert on your metas by no means but he feels off.
SpaceA:s wagon was interesting though I couldn't learn much from it. I think there could be a good idea to choose between raptor or EFHW, but honestly I don't know.
How do I feel off? What would you expect me to be like?
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I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.
I feel that I have to say the same. The raptor case is not too convincing and Skumpy being scum would be... please don't be. I can't find a narrative for scum defending me that much in this state, really. Lynhing me or Galz wouldn't matter to scum so his townread on me is likely genuine.
I don't like gkrieg this game. I'm not an expert on your metas by no means but he feels off.
SpaceA:s wagon was interesting though I couldn't learn much from it. I think there could be a good idea to choose between raptor or EFHW, but honestly I don't know.
How do I feel off? What would you expect me to be like?
Oh, I don't know really, but the sureness you have about certain things, Skumpy being scum and Space being town, is odd to me. I don't know if it's odd for you though, it's just off in general - I can't really recall any play like that, halfnewb as I am.
I could really use the tell for Space, to help rub off my scumread, I'm fully aware that it's probably nothing but I'm stuck there.
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How about vote: DatSwan?
This would be an informative lynch. I'm voting Space, but it doesn't look like there is sufficient interest and their recent advice about orders was towny. None of the other people with names starting with s interest me right now as lynches. Would vote Robz or gkrieg, but those seem less informative. A lot of people seem to want raptor. Not opposed to that. If I can I'll do a DatSwan reread tonight.
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How about vote: DatSwan?
This would be an informative lynch. I'm voting Space, but it doesn't look like there is sufficient interest and their recent advice about orders was towny. None of the other people with names starting with s interest me right now as lynches. Would vote Robz or gkrieg, but those seem less informative. A lot of people seem to want raptor. Not opposed to that. If I can I'll do a DatSwan reread tonight.
Why Datswan? Wouldn't you want Simon if you want an informative lynch?
Actually why is Datswan an informative lynch at all?
This is scummy from EFHW.
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Space - the number analysis seems to helpful to be a scum move, but I’ve never played with them before that i remember, does scum!space do this as well?
We were both in M110. LL, Swan and Skumpy were the scumteam, and they won. I posted a bunch of snapshots of the voting states and stuff over there too (see e.g. post #953 in that game), but it's obviously something I'd try to copy as scum.
I have an ever-growing vote-counting script.. once I've set it up for a given game (by telling it (player names, new voting aliases, day start post numbers etc), it generates a vote count page for me that just lists all the voting states of the game, because I find it informative. When I post a "Space count", all I'm doing is copy-pasting the latest voting state from there. A lot of other stats I want to pull out, like tables of who's voted for whom, or post counts by game day are really easy for me to do using the same framework and data-structures. The thing I've half-added at the moment is a system to tell me who's prod-able at any given time... this game has made that feel like a useful addition :-(
As for how long I spend on the forum, it depends if you count the time I'd spend mucking about with scripts looking for patterns in the madness.. I'm often working of a saved copy of the page, so I'm not even sure I'd show up as recently online for Skumpy's record-keeping purposes! I think if I couldn't commit an hour a night for at least 4 nights in a week, then I wouldn't consider I had enough time to play. My reading speed is pretty slow for blocks of prose, though, so I can imagine other people being able to play the game in their own way on less time than that.
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Vote: Skumpy
Want to say anything else about your masonry with Iguana?
I guess I could post his reads from last night.
Towny:
DatSwan
gkrieg
simon
Null:
EFHW
Robz
Space
Raptor
Scummy:
silver
Skumpy
(But if not them, then EFHW)
The reasoning for the silver and Skumpy reads was that they had the "deal" which allowed them to act suspicious of each other without having to do anything to back it up, they were very rarely on the same wagon, and they also pushed EFHW, Simon and Galz all while hiding behind other people's opinions. Also if II dies and Skumpy doesn't (which is what happened, as it turns out), that's a reason for him to be scum because he had the second least number of votes after II D1 and pacts not to be voted by 2 people D2.
If II had to guess a scum team, he would have said silver/Skumpy/Robz.
Just to clarify, these are just iguana's (paraphrased) opinions that I may or may not share.
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@gkrieg:
Of the current wagons (I'm even counting 1-vote wagons), I think I would only lynch Raptor, Skumpy, or Simon.
Not feeling Space at all (highest town read other than Awaclus) and silver has seemed townie so far.
There's time yet for another wagon. You don't need to tell the read, but just how confident are you in it that Space is indeed town?
Still a question I want an answer to. I don't feel this is partner-y because there's no need for it, barely anybody's gone for either of you. So if you give me like 99% confidence in Space, I'd be comfortable enough for now giving them town status.
I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.
I feel that I have to say the same. The raptor case is not too convincing and Skumpy being scum would be... please don't be. I can't find a narrative for scum defending me that much in this state, really. Lynhing me or Galz wouldn't matter to scum so his townread on me is likely genuine.
Not really true, I'd do it as scum. Like I said, scum's happy when Galz is dead D1. But in this case, I'm doing it because I had a genuine read and then it was only town trying to get you de-lynched. Again, if you're scum, well played to your partners.
DatSwan is most definitely not an informative lynch. But it's not a superwrong one either. I'm second-guessing whether I really want to be narrowing possibilities, so this is something I can support... I think?
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Vote: Skumpy
Want to say anything else about your masonry with Iguana?
I guess I could post his reads from last night.
Towny:
DatSwan
gkrieg
simon
Null:
EFHW
Robz
Space
Raptor
Scummy:
silver
Skumpy
(But if not them, then EFHW)
The reasoning for the silver and Skumpy reads was that they had the "deal" which allowed them to act suspicious of each other without having to do anything to back it up, they were very rarely on the same wagon, and they also pushed EFHW, Simon and Galz all while hiding behind other people's opinions. Also if II dies and Skumpy doesn't (which is what happened, as it turns out), that's a reason for him to be scum because he had the second least number of votes after II D1 and pacts not to be voted by 2 people D2.
If II had to guess a scum team, he would have said silver/Skumpy/Robz.
Just to clarify, these are just iguana's (paraphrased) opinions that I may or may not share.
Better.
Here's the deal with the deal: I offered it to literally EVERYBODY! silver said yes, I said, "I'll wait for Space". silver also didn't accept it at first until Swan pushed him (which I felt was somewhat scummy from Swan. It took me a few tries to understand it, but I can see the pieces connecting from a scum POV). Anyways, Iguana himself said, "maybe for a day", and didn't give more than that. You who is reading the post right now, YOU had a chance to take it, and you said "nah, I'm good". You have my permission to go vote silver if you want, there's apparently enough suspicion coming his way as well.
I was the first to vote Galz. I was the 2nd to vote TA, and the 1st to make some case against him. Those were MY opinions that were well documented. I don't partake in RVS, so if I have a vote, I'm letting you know why. Who was I hiding behind? And it's irrelevant anyways: I try to play from a town mindset as scum and vote the people I think I'd most easily see as scum. If anything, I avoid big wagons.
II died because he was super obvious town. I was not because I'm Skumpy and everybody is always suspicious of me now because of how I write; I always attract early wagons. Why people suspected II, I don't know.
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Scumteam got me squirming and I don't care for it. >:( >:( >:(
I suggest you all go do a readthrough before you get complacent. I know there exists town who haven't yet realized just how lost this game is. But I know.
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Actually why is Datswan an informative lynch at all?
If Swan is town, it gives us an almost certain scum between Simon and silver, because if you and I trust each other to be town, then there's nothing but green-and-silver on the Simon wagon for over 100 posts. I think it also makes it even more likely that there's one in {EFHW-Raptor}, because if there were three amongst the other players then the chance of one of them being Swan would be higher.
If Swan is Scum, I think the likelihood of Simon being scum goes up a bit, because Swan is voting silver right now, and also because scum!Simon opening the game with an RVS vote on a buddy and them proceeding to vote for almost everyone in the game kind of makes sense.
It's not the most informative thing going, but we do have to start cracking the nut of where the scums are in {Robz, Raptor, Swan, Skumpy, Simon (and maybe gkrieg)} at some point if we're going to win.
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@Space, you seem to be assuming ideal scum play at every point. I've noticed many people doing that in recent games, but it's extremely unlikely.
The fact we haven't lynched scum yet means they're at least doing something right :-P
More seriously, I picked out three suggested constraints from a day and a half's voting history, and invited people to comment. Do you think any of my suggested deductions is likely to be true? If so, which, and with what level of confidence?
Are you just refusing to comment with any level of detail because of some kind of Awaclusian principle? Or do you think my entire approach is unworkably flawed? If the latter, what do you suggest instead?
You have my response to point #1. Points #2 and #3 don't help much. More later
Did the "more later" part just boil down to you deciding to vote Swan, or was there going to be something else? You said points #2 and #3 don't help much, which is a comment on the utility of making the deductions, but not an opinion on the deductions themselves, which was what I was after.
As a reminder:
#2 - I was suggesting from looking at how the early Simon wagon formed that at least one of {Simon, silver, Swan} is scum.
#3 - I was suggesting from the later Galz wagon that at least one of {Robz, Skumpy, Simon} is scum.
I'm asking you how much you agree with the deduction in each case. Like "70% sure" or "seems plausible" or something. I feel like this kind of question should be easy for town, because this is precisely the information we have available to us in our scum-hunting, but tricky for scum, because they don't want to tie themselves into agreeing that one of their own might be scum when we get more info for PoE.
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I did actually give my opinion right off, which is that you are making assumptions that can't be counted on. In all three cases, you assume there must be scum on the wagon and eliminate the known town. You do that first with me, then with larger wagons of 5 and 6. Like I said before, it's not impossible that those were all town, though it of course gets less and less likely as the wagon gets bigger. But then the pool gets bigger too, and saying there is one scum in a group of 4 isn't much different from picking randomly. That is why I said it wasn't helpful.
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Actually why is Datswan an informative lynch at all?
If Swan is town, it gives us an almost certain scum between Simon and silver, because if you and I trust each other to be town, then there's nothing but green-and-silver on the Simon wagon for over 100 posts. I think it also makes it even more likely that there's one in {EFHW-Raptor}, because if there were three amongst the other players then the chance of one of them being Swan would be higher.
If Swan is Scum, I think the likelihood of Simon being scum goes up a bit, because Swan is voting silver right now, and also because scum!Simon opening the game with an RVS vote on a buddy and them proceeding to vote for almost everyone in the game kind of makes sense.
It's not the most informative thing going, but we do have to start cracking the nut of where the scums are in {Robz, Raptor, Swan, Skumpy, Simon (and maybe gkrieg)} at some point if we're going to win.
Space - i rode Simon literally to the death up until the last minute day 1. The alt wagon flipped town. If i am skum Simon is 100% town.
I agree with GK. Color me suspicious on both you and efhw at this point.
I need to actually finish isolating stuff to make a choice on if it is substantiated - but this push is weak/phony
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Wasn’t asked or me so i am not answering the question per se - but i would like to point out this is a faulty silogism. One could absolutely assume that “if player A flips skum, they also think it makes Player B look skummy, while simotainiously assuming if Player A flips town it does not mean anything in regards to Player B.”
No. You can absolutely not correctly do this, under no circumstances, never ever ever ever. if A coming true is evidence for B, then A coming false must be evidence against B. This is provable from first principles. See here.. (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jiBFC7DcCrZjGmZnJ/conservation-of-expected-evidence)
This is a game with interactions and variables. Every interaction is at a minimum a two way street. It is not a math problem. I am not arguing with you’re defn of the theory, just the application of it here.
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I did a reread of DatSwan. Post numbers may be off by one.
It's not as informative as I had hoped. It does concern me that he stated at 383 that he was willing to switch to get a lynch, and then did not do so, instead insisting other people switch to simon. Not a strong scum narrative for that, though. Day 2 he now says he thinks Simon is town and silver is not. He uses silver's EOD as justification, but silver's EOD was virtually identical to his, with the exception that silver was actually willing to switch. It was the case on silver that gave me the scumread. If we lynch him, we'll have a better sense of silver, simon and raptor.
Another similarity between DatSwan and silver is interest in entering into the pact with Skumpy. He challenges silver holding back at first, prodding him into agreeing for Days 1 and 2. I think supporting the pact is scummy, since, as I suggested, it did constrict town's flexibility in finding a lynch. That is to scum's benefit.
51 posts
48 offers Skumpy pact until start of Day 3. (Whatever happened to this?)
51 questions silver not doing agreement with Skumpy yet giving him day 1 pass. Says silver is being scummy because he would have an out allowing him to vote Skumpy last minute.
123 tinfoil hat theory, never shared with us.
194 checks in, says raptor isn't scum
228 Skum to chum list: Scum EFHW Simon Twisted II SS
Null Space GK Robz Skumpy Raptor Galz Chum
232 wants explanation why raptor is scummy.
235 iguana challenges DatSwan for not voing EFHW despite top scumread and opportunity to make it L-1. DatSwan thinks iguana and TA are bussing me for credit.
238 challenged again by iguana he says his reads are just guess work.
240 raptor is town because he'll be easier to lynch later.
241 Response to Iguana "The mere fact that you would suggest such a thing is ridiculous is somewhat incriminating. You are a very experienced player. I, as should everyone, leave pretty much everything on the table for you. Take it as a compliment."
242 Challenges iguana's EFHW vote, wants to know why voting there instead of silver.
279 3 candidates for lynch. Doesn't say who they are, votes Simon.
383 Willing to switch but likes simon wagon best
407 Thinks I am town, simon is not.
408 likes Galzria's comments about silver wagon, in which he suggests that those objecting to that wagon are scum.
412 10 minutes later. Not interested in switching.
426 "Get you vote back on Simon
At this point I would be half ok with speeding wagoning freekin II"
444 Simon more informative, Galz the better player
448 Demands someone hammer simon
DAY 2
479 Thinks masons have shots, wonders about N0. Mason should not claim because more valuable tomorrow than today. Vote count analysis. Assume one scum on each wagon. Notes that Robz, Skumpy, TA, II could have hammered simon. Focuses on Skumpy bc robz and ta were away. Reasonable since we now know II and TA are town. Finds me scummy, unless silver is scum. Says Simon is town - (why not vote Galz then?). Decides to vote silver for his EOD posts and because Galz's top scumread.
500 raptor didn't have internet. Doesn't want to lynch simon, thinking now it could have been two town wagons. "so silver it is for now"
590 Believes TA
593 Skumpy should have hammered. Responding to Space, feels their questions are uncharacteristic since the answers should be obvious.
595 Finds me scummy
596 raptor not scum. On board for EFHW lynch.
635 finds silver's syllogism faulty
637 raptor town bc of his gut read and his response to Skumpy saying he saw him online.
638 TA choose claim order for tomorrow
639 challenges Robz, posts that don't really say anything.
643 asks Robz for reads list
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I think I'm against the end-of-day claim order. At least, if this were a drafting-style setup, then it's clearly bad to give scum a heads-up about the order they'll be claiming in right before we go into a night phase.. that just gives them extra help by greatly reducing the amount of if-then planning they have to do.
For a setup like this one, the impact of that is a bit less clear, but I'm unconvinced that the benefits outweigh the risks, or that of they do, then the claim order itself is really critical enough to have to be decided by an IC over town consensus.
I'm not even through my first coffee of the day yet, though, so that's definitely posted for discussion rather than because I'm feeling confident that it's the right stance..
What about limiting the information? Like top two TRs and top 2 SRs or something?
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I did a reread of DatSwan. Post numbers may be off by one.
It's not as informative as I had hoped. It does concern me that he stated at 383 that he was willing to switch to get a lynch, and then did not do so, instead insisting other people switch to simon. Not a strong scum narrative for that, though. Day 2 he now says he thinks Simon is town and silver is not. He uses silver's EOD as justification, but silver's EOD was virtually identical to his, with the exception that silver was actually willing to switch. It was the case on silver that gave me the scumread. If we lynch him, we'll have a better sense of silver, simon and raptor.
Another similarity between DatSwan and silver is interest in entering into the pact with Skumpy. He challenges silver holding back at first, prodding him into agreeing for Days 1 and 2. I think supporting the pact is scummy, since, as I suggested, it did constrict town's flexibility in finding a lynch. That is to scum's benefit.
51 posts
48 offers Skumpy pact until start of Day 3. (Whatever happened to this?)
51 questions silver not doing agreement with Skumpy yet giving him day 1 pass. Says silver is being scummy because he would have an out allowing him to vote Skumpy last minute.
123 tinfoil hat theory, never shared with us.
194 checks in, says raptor isn't scum
228 Skum to chum list: Scum EFHW Simon Twisted II SS
Null Space GK Robz Skumpy Raptor Galz Chum
232 wants explanation why raptor is scummy.
235 iguana challenges DatSwan for not voing EFHW despite top scumread and opportunity to make it L-1. DatSwan thinks iguana and TA are bussing me for credit.
238 challenged again by iguana he says his reads are just guess work.
240 raptor is town because he'll be easier to lynch later.
241 Response to Iguana "The mere fact that you would suggest such a thing is ridiculous is somewhat incriminating. You are a very experienced player. I, as should everyone, leave pretty much everything on the table for you. Take it as a compliment."
242 Challenges iguana's EFHW vote, wants to know why voting there instead of silver.
279 3 candidates for lynch. Doesn't say who they are, votes Simon.
383 Willing to switch but likes simon wagon best
407 Thinks I am town, simon is not.
408 likes Galzria's comments about silver wagon, in which he suggests that those objecting to that wagon are scum.
412 10 minutes later. Not interested in switching.
426 "Get you vote back on Simon
At this point I would be half ok with speeding wagoning freekin II"
444 Simon more informative, Galz the better player
448 Demands someone hammer simon
DAY 2
479 Thinks masons have shots, wonders about N0. Mason should not claim because more valuable tomorrow than today. Vote count analysis. Assume one scum on each wagon. Notes that Robz, Skumpy, TA, II could have hammered simon. Focuses on Skumpy bc robz and ta were away. Reasonable since we now know II and TA are town. Finds me scummy, unless silver is scum. Says Simon is town - (why not vote Galz then?). Decides to vote silver for his EOD posts and because Galz's top scumread.
500 raptor didn't have internet. Doesn't want to lynch simon, thinking now it could have been two town wagons. "so silver it is for now"
590 Believes TA
593 Skumpy should have hammered. Responding to Space, feels their questions are uncharacteristic since the answers should be obvious.
595 Finds me scummy
596 raptor not scum. On board for EFHW lynch.
635 finds silver's syllogism faulty
637 raptor town bc of his gut read and his response to Skumpy saying he saw him online.
638 TA choose claim order for tomorrow
639 challenges Robz, posts that don't really say anything.
643 asks Robz for reads list
Never said i thought Simon was town. Just said it is more likely it could of been a tvt wagon than one of the switching people are skum. So imo SS>Simon.
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This is what made me think you thought simon was town ...
Simon was the other major wagon, so I tend to take a lot of that person's actions out of the equasion because good town will do anything to stay alive.
... I see that just before you did say this ...
I would like to focus that speculation on Simon, SilverSpawn and EFHW. with one speculation. If Skum knew that some of the absent players were in fact skum, they would of had to move accordingly (only important if it was a town vs town wagon). But, still to be considered. At the end of it, Simon is probably skum. But the most reliable choice is SS.
... but the impression I take away is that you really believe Simon to be town.
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This is what made me think you thought simon was town ...
Simon was the other major wagon, so I tend to take a lot of that person's actions out of the equasion because good town will do anything to stay alive.
... I see that just before you did say this ...
I would like to focus that speculation on Simon, SilverSpawn and EFHW. with one speculation. If Skum knew that some of the absent players were in fact skum, they would of had to move accordingly (only important if it was a town vs town wagon). But, still to be considered. At the end of it, Simon is probably skum. But the most reliable choice is SS.
... but the impression I take away is that you really believe Simon to be town.
Coolio - allow me to clear that up. I still think Simon is skummy. For no new reasons from D1 really. But as several people (myself included) have pointed out - the chance that it was tvt d1 makes him a less ideal lynch for previously stated reasons.
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Scumteam got me squirming and I don't care for it. >:( >:( >:(
I suggest you all go do a readthrough before you get complacent. I know there exists town who haven't yet realized just how lost this game is. But I know.
You are becoming scummier the more you are writing. There is no reason for such a defaistic attitude, we can afford another mislynch and yours would certainly not be the worst here.
However I rather would go towards Swan today. If he being scum makes me 100% town I would like to bet that the reversed is true, me being town makes them 100% scum. I agree that his lynch is informative if he would flip town.
vote: datswan
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Scumteam got me squirming and I don't care for it. >:( >:( >:(
I suggest you all go do a readthrough before you get complacent. I know there exists town who haven't yet realized just how lost this game is. But I know.
You are becoming scummier the more you are writing. There is no reason for such a defaistic attitude, we can afford another mislynch and yours would certainly not be the worst here.
However I rather would go towards Swan today. If he being scum makes me 100% town I would like to bet that the reversed is true, me being town makes them 100% scum. I agree that his lynch is informative if he would flip town.
vote: datswan
So on one hand I said “if i am skum you are Town” so your vote is ...i guess to be expected. But this post is all over the place.
1) You think skumpy is skummy
2) you think we can’t affford a mislynch
3) but you wanna lynch me, not being able to afford a mislynch.
So it isn’t for info - you have to find me skummy right?
Why am i skummy? Please make your case.
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Scumteam got me squirming and I don't care for it. >:( >:( >:(
I suggest you all go do a readthrough before you get complacent. I know there exists town who haven't yet realized just how lost this game is. But I know.
You are becoming scummier the more you are writing. There is no reason for such a defaistic attitude, we can afford another mislynch and yours would certainly not be the worst here.
However I rather would go towards Swan today. If he being scum makes me 100% town I would like to bet that the reversed is true, me being town makes them 100% scum. I agree that his lynch is informative if he would flip town.
vote: datswan
So on one hand I said “if i am skum you are Town” so your vote is ...i guess to be expected. But this post is all over the place.
1) You think skumpy is skummy
2) you think we can’t affford a mislynch
3) but you wanna lynch me, not being able to afford a mislynch.
So it isn’t for info - you have to find me skummy right?
Why am i skummy? Please make your case.
#2 is exactly the opposite from what I'm saying. Skumpy is basically resigning in his post and even if we are in an unfortunate position we are in no way in a guaranteed loss with a mislynch here. I'm not ready to vote Skumpy yet, he has been one of my strongest townread so far but it's getting weirder and weirder. I'm not against his lynch, but I can't vote there right now. Too much WIFOM and it's making me crazy.
When it comes to you my case is not too strong. I've been waiting for something jumping out for me and your comment made it. Together with EFHW and SpaceA:s reasoning I like your lynch better than anyone elses - I do think it's likely silver is scum if you flips town.
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Time for me to ponder the mysteries of the universe and the meaning of life and M117, in some TBD order.
BTW: Gone for parts of the day before deadline. If it's at 5PM forum/EST, I should be around for the last hourish. If you're killing me, give me time to get back and write my epitaph.
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Scumteam got me squirming and I don't care for it. >:( >:( >:(
I suggest you all go do a readthrough before you get complacent. I know there exists town who haven't yet realized just how lost this game is. But I know.
You are becoming scummier the more you are writing. There is no reason for such a defaistic attitude, we can afford another mislynch and yours would certainly not be the worst here.
However I rather would go towards Swan today. If he being scum makes me 100% town I would like to bet that the reversed is true, me being town makes them 100% scum. I agree that his lynch is informative if he would flip town.
vote: datswan
So on one hand I said “if i am skum you are Town” so your vote is ...i guess to be expected. But this post is all over the place.
1) You think skumpy is skummy
2) you think we can’t affford a mislynch
3) but you wanna lynch me, not being able to afford a mislynch.
So it isn’t for info - you have to find me skummy right?
Why am i skummy? Please make your case.
#2 is exactly the opposite from what I'm saying. Skumpy is basically resigning in his post and even if we are in an unfortunate position we are in no way in a guaranteed loss with a mislynch here. I'm not ready to vote Skumpy yet, he has been one of my strongest townread so far but it's getting weirder and weirder. I'm not against his lynch, but I can't vote there right now. Too much WIFOM and it's making me crazy.
When it comes to you my case is not too strong. I've been waiting for something jumping out for me and your comment made it. Together with EFHW and SpaceA:s reasoning I like your lynch better than anyone elses - I do think it's likely silver is scum if you flips town.
I admit my mistake in that I mis-read your "can afford" as "can't afford". Go ahead and disregard that point.
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hello.
iguana is the only one making sense so far. Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.
I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.
Why? The only reason Town!SS would be worried about the agreement is if Skumpy is Skum.
PPE1
But you just said you are giving him a pass - so, if Skumpy is Skum then they obv will remove you from radar. Soooo, as Town!SS you giving Skumpster a pass is actually the same as agreeing to his gambit. As Skum, it gives you an out to say that you never agreed to it so people can pile him and then you can jump on.
you know what, you're right! I didn't think this far.
Ok, skumpy, how about we don't vote for each other until day 3?
I am Vanilla Townie
I believe that both SS and Skumpy are Skum.
I believe that the plan was to have Skumpy put his plan in place for the coalition assuming at least one town would bite, then to have a skum jump on. This gives them the ultimate WIFOM for kill actions. This plan would also suggest that Skum has a low utility of PRs.
I think that this quoted above by SS was not simply based on logic. They have proven with their recent posts that they can take a logical concept and apply it in an illogical way. I think that this agreement to my arbitrary day count plus the overall coalition is just an out for 2 skum players to use down the road. Also, we are D2 now and when skumpy gets to 3 votes I all of a sudden get a random push put on me? This doesn't seem right.
Skumpy has obv laid the groundwork here to vote for me, so EFHW had to start it out.
I still think SS is skum. I want to lynch SS. We should lynch SS. But as I cannot seem to rally votes, I like Skumpy. EFHW I think is Town. XXR I think is Town. IDK about Space or GK or Robz. Obv Awaclus is Town at this point.
@Awaclus - if you do not want TA's read list to be used as a claim list you should update before day end.
Vote: Skumpy
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Checked back during the readthrough, see I'm at L1.
To repeat:
Gone for parts of the day before deadline. If it's at 5PM forum/EST, I should be around for the last hourish. If you're killing me, give me time to get back and write my epitaph.
No hammers, thanks
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Actually, L2. Never mind, you good.
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Checked back during the readthrough, see I'm at L1.
To repeat:
Gone for parts of the day before deadline. If it's at 5PM forum/EST, I should be around for the last hourish. If you're killing me, give me time to get back and write my epitaph.
No hammers, thanks
I absolutely could be wrong.. but I believe your vote is [GK, Raptor, Awaclus, Swan]. It takes 6 to lynch so I think you are L2?
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Actually, L2. Never mind, you good.
PPE or whatever
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Simon, you seem to think that weird -> probably scum. Totally wrong! Weird -> probably town. That might not be 100% true for everyone, but it's a pretty good general rule.
Skumpy is like one of the most obv!town players that has ever obv!towned without any PR stuff.
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by which I mean they're like subjectively half as likely to be scum than they'd be by default. But hey that is pretty strong.
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hello.
iguana is the only one making sense so far. Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.
I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.
Why? The only reason Town!SS would be worried about the agreement is if Skumpy is Skum.
PPE1
But you just said you are giving him a pass - so, if Skumpy is Skum then they obv will remove you from radar. Soooo, as Town!SS you giving Skumpster a pass is actually the same as agreeing to his gambit. As Skum, it gives you an out to say that you never agreed to it so people can pile him and then you can jump on.
you know what, you're right! I didn't think this far.
Ok, skumpy, how about we don't vote for each other until day 3?
I am Vanilla Townie
I believe that both SS and Skumpy are Skum.
I believe that the plan was to have Skumpy put his plan in place for the coalition assuming at least one town would bite, then to have a skum jump on. This gives them the ultimate WIFOM for kill actions. This plan would also suggest that Skum has a low utility of PRs.
I think that this quoted above by SS was not simply based on logic. They have proven with their recent posts that they can take a logical concept and apply it in an illogical way. I think that this agreement to my arbitrary day count plus the overall coalition is just an out for 2 skum players to use down the road. Also, we are D2 now and when skumpy gets to 3 votes I all of a sudden get a random push put on me? This doesn't seem right.
Skumpy has obv laid the groundwork here to vote for me, so EFHW had to start it out.
I still think SS is skum. I want to lynch SS. We should lynch SS. But as I cannot seem to rally votes, I like Skumpy. EFHW I think is Town. XXR I think is Town. IDK about Space or GK or Robz. Obv Awaclus is Town at this point.
@Awaclus - if you do not want TA's read list to be used as a claim list you should update before day end.
Vote: Skumpy
Uhh. And Skumpy wanting to break the contract and me giving a harsh response to that idea was also planned, yes?
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I'm neither super opposed nor super excited about a Swan lynch. Probably leaning on somewhat liking it. EFHW's summary didn't make them look great I'd say.
But raptor is better.
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Uhh. And Skumpy wanting to break the contract and me giving a harsh response to that idea was also planned, yes?
Could have been planned, could have been Skumpy doing something non-planned on his own and you telling him not to do it.
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Awaclus hates TL:DR, you skip to bottom.
OK a reread later, wherein I tunnel 1 idea and get biased in the process.
Preliminaries:
Simon Jester: At the time, #563 matched exactly how I was feeling. I also wanted to flail and see what I could grab hold if, even though I knew nobody would follow. Back to basics thing also made sense. Still a general town tone thing from him overall. Suspicious of me buddying him, feels towny. It's not super easy to fake that stuff, especially from a relative newbie. And above all else, it's an insane risk by scum to not send anybody at all to his defense D1. Especially when you have a chance to get rid of Galz. (To respond to his last post: if the mislynch isn't me, I'm lynched tomorrow. So yeah, lynch me or lynch scum if you want to win).
Space Anemone: My favorite part about playing with Space is that they're probably like the only person who is capable of letting the evidence lead the theory. That's why this game is so hard to win, and why I have little faith in this one since my entire wagon is made of irrational tunnelers.
If the team is gkrieg/Space: First off, this game is most definitely hopeless, and kudos to you guys. In addition, if this is the team, it's tough for me to believe scumGkrieg waddles in with a "murp murp, Space is town, murp murp", waddles out. It's so unnecessary to defend a teammate when all suspicion is directed elsewhere. I have to trust this isn't the team because I don't know if I have other options. Therefore, if gkrieg is not scum, then I'm putting all my eggs in his towntell basket so that I can mega-hold him accountable when it's all over for tunneling me and getting the Space read wrong (sorry). So I'm letting Space be town. Simon, as a town speaking to hopefully another town about someone I believe is town , townI urges maybeTownU to reconsider the scum read on a probable town.
gkrieg13: I'm an OMGDUSER, not an OMGUSER. I've tried to play psychologist before, 'What do I think people would read me as were they either alignment?' This has never worked at all. So the obvious thing to do is try again: I'm surprised that none of EFHW, ss, and Space have really gone after me this game. Space and ss have tried before and given me passes. EFHW has never had to. That's a thing. gkrieg has also never gone after me before. I have to say I imagine this behavior coming more from him being town. I have never had to deal with somebody tunnel me the whole entire game, Awaclus aside. As everybody else has noted, it's such an odd thing to do, that it's gotta be town. Unless you are scum who genuinely thinks I'm playing that awfully. That's a blow to my ego. Also, nobody's voted his way this game, including Simon who's voted literally everybody else, and I'd think maybe some scum would want to bus that. So against my better judgment, gkrieg, have a town button!
So if I'm right (if!): then the entire scum team lies somwhere within {Raptor, EFHW, silver, Robz, Swan}. I went to bed last night with something screaming in my ear "It's Silver/Swan/EFHW!!!" I'm sure that'll end up being nothing...
(I also had a dream I was getting bullied at a community college sort of thing. It was a weird dream. One of the 3 bullies was redheaded; any redheads here?)
So that's the town, scum to come next post.
Last thing: Awaclus, I promise you I will download your band's album once you finally correctly read me. You are now 0/4. You are not getting a download anytime soon. If I was someone else, I'd put more faith in a paper fortune teller or a dartboard or a drunk monkey who probably can't even type on a keyboard than your reads. I know that's insulting. But, like, it takes effort to do this bad.
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Last thing: Awaclus, I promise you I will download your band's album once you finally correctly read me. You are now 0/4. You are not getting a download anytime soon. If I was someone else, I'd put more faith in a paper fortune teller or a dartboard or a drunk monkey who probably can't even type on a keyboard than your reads. I know that's insulting. But, like, it takes effort to do this bad.
If my read on you is wrong, then surely you'll be able to put together a better argument than "I won't download your band's album unless you stop voting for me".
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there are also three albums so far, not just one.
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Vote: DatSwan
It's silver/Swan/X
Well, it would be if I had more self-confidence. I don't. I'm better at finding town and getting the scum from POE than just picking them out. Though speaking of POE, I would be very surprised if there's not a scum in that pair. I've been wrong on D2 2-phers before. I know it's pretty much too late to rely on that with 1 mislynch left. Eh.
The concern I have with Swan is that when the Wheel of Wagons start a-spinning, scum!Sajak gets to reach out a hand and stop it as soon as it lands on Bankrupt. I have fears that's happened again, and if Swan gets mislynched, I'm next even if I've worked out the team by then. But wagons aside, I've said the whole game I've felt Swan was scummy, and since I apparently can't vote ss (tinfoil, beepbeepbepbeep!) we're going Swan. Plus I'd rather Swan over ss anyhow.
On #50: (Repeat of old post) Townies, read it, and see if you follow along. I did...after like 4 rereads. Read it now from a scum POV (and assume I'm town). I'm outside the loop, because it was my offer. But still. For me, the jigsaw puzzle clicks into place from a scummy Swan's mind.
hello.
iguana is the only one making sense so far. Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.
I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.
Why? The only reason Town!SS would be worried about the agreement is if Skumpy is Skum.
PPE1
But you just said you are giving him a pass - so, if Skumpy is Skum then they obv will remove you from radar. Soooo, as Town!SS you giving Skumpster a pass is actually the same as agreeing to his gambit. As Skum, it gives you an out to say that you never agreed to it so people can pile him and then you can jump on.
Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.
2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)
*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*
Also also, now that I think Simon is town and am forced to give Space town cred, their argument on the Simon wagon is a lot more impactful than I initially gave it credit for. Which, as a reminder, was scum exists in {ss, Swan, Simon, Space}
There wasn't much of a case against ss there. I know he and everybody will call me out on it. Whatever. I read the thread like 2 hours ago. I forgot it. Maybe I'll revisit it again tomorrow. And I reserve the right to change my mind if Swan flips scum. If he doesn't, I don't because I'm dead, either today tomorrow.
Swan: If you want to get a wagon going on ss, be my guest. Find the flaw in my last 2 posts, and if you can't, you'll know ss is scum.
(Also also also response to EFHW about Swan offering the coalition; I was confused by it because it wasn't a very forceful offer, and I didn't realize it was one. Sorry Swan)
As a reminder: aroundish for most of the day, goneish for an hourish before deadline, should be there for all of last hour. Not claiming yet. Don't know why Swan did.
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Fun (unrelated) fact:
I mean he isn't a lynch candidate anymore. where's your evidence that he is town?
not to be rude... but I asked first. I'll even give you my reasons - but I expect yours in return.
XXR is town to me Day 1 because he will either slip up or get lyched for being less than active as the game continues. To lynch him D1 here seems dumb on general principal unless there is a hard skum read on them. So I am looking for a hard skum read from someone. Without that, they are essentially removed from my D1 pool.
*I am also aware of the Hippocratic nature of this post as they have probably contributed more than I in this game. It is more based on generalization*
Also, since we are on the topic II - what is your reads list prior to the end of D1?
My reaction at the time was this was a fake doctor breadcrumb, and not a typo. I alluded to my wonders later.
And as for DatSwan...
How he has flown completely under the radar so far, I have absolutely no clue. I suspect due in part to Galz's read. But there's a lot I don't trust, such as being the last one to vote (which I think he's done before, even as town, but still something I don't trust), his arbitrary reads which II aptly described as:
No offense, but you sound to me like you are getting your reads from a random number generator and your scum narratives from a magic 8 ball.....
and his reaction to my coalition offer, which I am now going to settle on as the scummiest response. Maybe other posts interest me too, who knows? So, I'd be OK putting a vote there, but doing so makes it easier for Simon to be the lynch, so I have to stay on TA unless somebody else wants to try starting a wagon there.
Didn't say it at the time because a) I didn't want to call him out if it was genuine and b) It was 100 times more farfetched than the Simon-Skumpy axis theory. I did find it very amusing though. Obviously a moot idea now.
Though now that I mention it: for those of you who think I'm scum AND Swan's town, I would've pushed for Swan to be the NK after reading it. But there's no way a team would've bought it actually.
...carry on.
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Last thing: Awaclus, I promise you I will download your band's album once you finally correctly read me. You are now 0/4. You are not getting a download anytime soon. If I was someone else, I'd put more faith in a paper fortune teller or a dartboard or a drunk monkey who probably can't even type on a keyboard than your reads. I know that's insulting. But, like, it takes effort to do this bad.
If my read on you is wrong, then surely you'll be able to put together a better argument than "I won't download your band's album unless you stop voting for me".
I have. Plenty, if you'd bother to read my TL:DR stuff since you only have like 12 hours left in this game anyways. But you voting me is all the case I need ;)
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What do you feel now?
Vote Count 2.5
Skumpy (4): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan
Xxraptorslayer96 (1): silverspawn
Simon Jester (1): Robz888
DatSwan (3): EFHW, Simon Jester, Skumpy
Not Voting: (1) SpaceAnemone
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm. That's in 11 hours.
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But you voting me is all the case I need ;)
No it isn't because your job isn't to convince yourself that you aren't scum, it's to convince me that you aren't scum.
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Skumpy is the largest wagon... .....
gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan
Ok, gkrieg, you're the one who I trust to be somewhat reasonable. Get off of there and vote somewhere where there could be scum.
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If we lynch skumpy that just strikes me as super terrible. Especially if that makes people trust their reads more. There is probably 0 scum in {skumpy, datswan, me}
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I would generally really consider space because they have done nothing to make me believe they're town, except that gkrieg seems to think there's something there
But I also have no reason to believe gkrieg is town. It's conceivable that gkrieg/space are scum buddies. This would mean that almost everyone under scrutiny so far has been town, which seems about right.
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And then there's robz who's just lurking and also a plausible scum candidate
the bottom line is that I suspect everyone except me is voting for a town right now. (Skumpy, Simon, Datswan) maps to (town, prob town, kinda prob town)
Instead we should be focused on raptor, space, gkrieg, EFHW, Robz. Four of them have gotten almost no pressure and everyone seems to have given up on raptor.
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Actually why is Datswan an informative lynch at all?
If Swan is town, it gives us an almost certain scum between Simon and silver, because if you and I trust each other to be town, then there's nothing but green-and-silver on the Simon wagon for over 100 posts. I think it also makes it even more likely that there's one in {EFHW-Raptor}, because if there were three amongst the other players then the chance of one of them being Swan would be higher.
If Swan is Scum, I think the likelihood of Simon being scum goes up a bit, because Swan is voting silver right now, and also because scum!Simon opening the game with an RVS vote on a buddy and them proceeding to vote for almost everyone in the game kind of makes sense.
It's not the most informative thing going, but we do have to start cracking the nut of where the scums are in {Robz, Raptor, Swan, Skumpy, Simon (and maybe gkrieg)} at some point if we're going to win.
Space - i rode Simon literally to the death up until the last minute day 1. The alt wagon flipped town. If i am skum Simon is 100% town.
I agree with GK. Color me suspicious on both you and efhw at this point.
I need to actually finish isolating stuff to make a choice on if it is substantiated - but this push is weak/phony
Are you reading that as me pushing for your lynch or something? It's not a push, it's a direct response to gkrieg complaining that EFHW's proposal is a very uninformative lynch. And I more or less agree: lynching you is not that informative, so I summarised all the vague information we might hope to get, and it's weak. I think if anything, you're agreeing with me...
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I find Skumpy a little townier after his last slew of posts. If I'm to believe he's really town, then the strongest case might be on Robz, looking at how the Galz wagon went.
vote: Robz
He's contributed next to nothing to the game, but flipping him will contribute to some of the PoE. If he's town, I think that will all but confirm Simon as scum, without great loss to town in itself because he's just not doing anything. It also has the advantage of offering information from the wagon gkrieg was not on, which means any residual suspicion on gkrieg can be put aside for not.
If Robz is scum, yay! That will also help me trust Skumpy more, which is useful because he's one of the more active people, even if I don't always agree with his content.
The downside of flipping Robz is that it doesn't help much with PoE for the Raptor/EFHW question.
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Timings for later: I'm here for a short while on lunch break just now. I have a commitment immediately after work, but should be back on the forum before 9pm my time/4pm forum time, and then I can stick it out till deadline.
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Wasn’t asked or me so i am not answering the question per se - but i would like to point out this is a faulty silogism. One could absolutely assume that “if player A flips skum, they also think it makes Player B look skummy, while simotainiously assuming if Player A flips town it does not mean anything in regards to Player B.”
No. You can absolutely not correctly do this, under no circumstances, never ever ever ever. if A coming true is evidence for B, then A coming false must be evidence against B. This is provable from first principles. See here.. (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jiBFC7DcCrZjGmZnJ/conservation-of-expected-evidence)
This is a game with interactions and variables.
Irrelevant. Every situation is a situation with stuff going on. the formula is always true.
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Skumpy is the largest wagon... .....
gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan
Ok, gkrieg, you're the one who I trust to be somewhat reasonable. Get off of there and vote somewhere where there could be scum.
Oh come on. You know he is scum.
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Skumpy is the largest wagon... .....
gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan
Ok, gkrieg, you're the one who I trust to be somewhat reasonable. Get off of there and vote somewhere where there could be scum.
Oh come on. You know he is scum.
Could scum!Skumpy sustain this level of posting? And without slipping up?
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I find Skumpy a little townier after his last slew of posts. If I'm to believe he's really town, then the strongest case might be on Robz, looking at how the Galz wagon went.
vote: Robz
He's contributed next to nothing to the game, but flipping him will contribute to some of the PoE. If he's town, I think that will all but confirm Simon as scum, without great loss to town in itself because he's just not doing anything. It also has the advantage of offering information from the wagon gkrieg was not on, which means any residual suspicion on gkrieg can be put aside for not.
If Robz is scum, yay! That will also help me trust Skumpy more, which is useful because he's one of the more active people, even if I don't always agree with his content.
The downside of flipping Robz is that it doesn't help much with PoE for the Raptor/EFHW question.
You thought the DatSwan lynch would be uninformative. How is it possible that a Robz lynch would be more so?
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I will say that this post felt scummy to me and had a pivotal effect on the day. I would vote Robz.
Why is there not time to start a new wagon? The Simon lynch feels too easy. Also, him voting for me right here is a pretty terrible move if he's scum, because I'm not voting him currently but might, from his perspective, switch to him if irked. Which would be bad.
I actually do not think a Galz vote is crazy here. His lack of involvement here arguably is more likely to signal that he is scum.
Vote: Galz who is with me?
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You thought the DatSwan lynch would be uninformative. How is it possible that a Robz lynch would be more so?
I feel like your question is implying that I think a Robz lynch would be uninformative, and I don't think that matches up with what I was saying at all.
The most informative would be a Simon flip, for clarity of what was going on with the EoD1 wagons, or you/raptor because you're somewhat more tightly-coupled in terms of 1-v-1 status from my point of view. However, I'm tempering my thirst for immediate information by also looking favourably on keeping people who're contributing to the game right now, like you, Swan, and silver.
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You thought the DatSwan lynch would be uninformative. How is it possible that a Robz lynch would be more so?
I feel like your question is implying that I think a Robz lynch would be uninformative, and I don't think that matches up with what I was saying at all.
The most informative would be a Simon flip, for clarity of what was going on with the EoD1 wagons, or you/raptor because you're somewhat more tightly-coupled in terms of 1-v-1 status from my point of view. However, I'm tempering my thirst for immediate information by also looking favourably on keeping people who're contributing to the game right now, like you, Swan, and silver.
It's implying that you said a Robz lynch would be informative.
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I will be on at time and deadline and aroundish untill then.
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Skumpy is the largest wagon... .....
gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan
Ok, gkrieg, you're the one who I trust to be somewhat reasonable. Get off of there and vote somewhere where there could be scum.
Oh come on. You know he is scum.
If we were both confirmed towns, I would give you 4:1 odds on a bet that he isn't!
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But I take it from your answer that your presence on the wagon is serious.
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Is he the right pronoun for skumpy?
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You thought the DatSwan lynch would be uninformative. How is it possible that a Robz lynch would be more so?
I feel like your question is implying that I think a Robz lynch would be uninformative, and I don't think that matches up with what I was saying at all.
The most informative would be a Simon flip, for clarity of what was going on with the EoD1 wagons, or you/raptor because you're somewhat more tightly-coupled in terms of 1-v-1 status from my point of view. However, I'm tempering my thirst for immediate information by also looking favourably on keeping people who're contributing to the game right now, like you, Swan, and silver.
It's implying that you said a Robz lynch would be informative.
Ah! You'd said "uninformative" and then "more so", so I read that as "more uninformative". I think it keeps more information in the game because Swan is interacting more, in addition to the stuff I said we could read into each type of flip. I certainly don't think that what I said about Robz's flip gives any less than what I thought we'd get out of Swan's.
Would you like to elaborate on what you think you'd take away from each possible flip result?
Actually, I'd be quite interested to hear silver's response to that as well, since he's another very evidence-based player I think.
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I am here now.
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@ Space: It's more that I felt you were being inconsistent, which suggested to me that your criticism of my case might not be genuine.
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I really don't think Skumpy is scum. I'm more inclined to join the DatSwan wagon, I don't know if that's the best option though.
I feel like Space is sort of townie for going after me here.
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I will be on at time and deadline and aroundish untill then.
Maybe you could scumhunt between now and then?
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Skumpy is the largest wagon... .....
gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan
Ok, gkrieg, you're the one who I trust to be somewhat reasonable. Get off of there and vote somewhere where there could be scum.
Oh come on. You know he is scum.
Could scum!Skumpy sustain this level of posting? And without slipping up?
Isn't that exactly what he did in his first scum game?
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If anyone is pushing for an informative lynch, I am seriously FoSing you if you aren't voting for Simon. He is by far the most informative lynch based on the fact he was the other D1 wagon and EoD was kind of weird Yesterday.
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I would definitely join a Simon wagon.
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If anyone is pushing for an informative lynch, I am seriously FoSing you if you aren't voting for Simon. He is by far the most informative lynch based on the fact he was the other D1 wagon and EoD was kind of weird Yesterday.
I am currently voting him, and alone in that, I believe.
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There is probably 0 scum in {skumpy, datswan, me}
I highly doubt that.
Skumpy is the largest wagon... .....
gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan
Ok, gkrieg, you're the one who I trust to be somewhat reasonable. Get off of there and vote somewhere where there could be scum.
Oh come on. You know he is scum.
If we were both confirmed towns, I would give you 4:1 odds on a bet that he isn't!
Awful deal. Don't take it gkrieg!
Is he the right pronoun for skumpy?
Fine by me.
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Robz wagon? Maybe. Judging by his sig, he's town. But...
When the Wheel of Wagons start a-spinning, scum!Sajak gets to reach out a hand and stop it as soon as it lands on Bankrupt. I have fears that's happened again.
The longer you don't settle on a target, the easier it is for scum to guide in that direction.
I don't want to gain more information surrounding Simon, I have all the information I could want. I DON'T agree that a town flip all but guarantees Simon as scum - Raptor/gkrieg/ss (let's make something up) is fine as a possibility for me. Not really sure why him flipping scum makes me townier...but I'll take it?
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Also, since nobody's answered me:
Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.
2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)
*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*
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I have all the information I could want.
That's probably because you're scum.
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Actually, I'd be quite interested to hear silver's response to that as well, since he's another very evidence-based player I think.
I definitely spend very little time worrying or even thinking about what player makes for the most informative lynch. A good reason for this is that scum is almost always going to be more informative than town. Scum wants to lynch town and not lynch scum, but not pushing for any one town lynch is just far less costly than pushing for a scum lynch. So really, I think I stand by that it should not be a major factor. Consequently, I'm not too interested in thinking about which player is the most informative.
But it's probably something like Simon > ... Skumpy > ... > raptor > ... > Robz. Don't think anyone is less informative than robz.
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Also, since nobody's answered me:
I read it and had no clue what it means ~)
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Also, since nobody's answered me:
Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.
2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)
*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*
That post from Swan was #478. Then at #497 he said that he'd mixed up Mason and Neighbourizer. What is left that you don't understand?
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Also, since nobody's answered me:
Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.
2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)
*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*
That post from Swan was #478. Then at #497 he said that he'd mixed up Mason and Neighbourizer. What is left that you don't understand?
The last line, assuming he meant 'answers' instead of 'questions'. How do you know the answers to the questions that don't make sense?
On the one hand, these should still be questions you ask in a QT if you're scum. But if he's town, I don't see the rhyme or reason in it.
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Actually, I'd be quite interested to hear silver's response to that as well, since he's another very evidence-based player I think.
I definitely spend very little time worrying or even thinking about what player makes for the most informative lynch. A good reason for this is that scum is almost always going to be more informative than town. Scum wants to lynch town and not lynch scum, but not pushing for any one town lynch is just far less costly than pushing for a scum lynch. So really, I think I stand by that it should not be a major factor. Consequently, I'm not too interested in thinking about which player is the most informative.
But it's probably something like Simon > ... Skumpy > ... > raptor > ... > Robz. Don't think anyone is less informative than robz.
My question to you was not "what is the most informative lynch", it was explicitly "What would you take away from each possible flip result?". Since you were the person who earlier was trying to ensure that nobody twisted one flip both ways to give you scum points either way around, I thought you would be the best example of someone who could say "If Swan flips scum then I think X is likely, and if he flips town then I think Y", for some sorts of X and Y and likelihoods and stuff. The two flips under discussion were Swan and Robz.
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Also, since nobody's answered me:
Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.
2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)
*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*
That post from Swan was #478. Then at #497 he said that he'd mixed up Mason and Neighbourizer. What is left that you don't understand?
The last line, assuming he meant 'answers' instead of 'questions'. How do you know the answers to the questions that don't make sense?
On the one hand, these should still be questions you ask in a QT if you're scum. But if he's town, I don't see the rhyme or reason in it.
Oh, I see! I totally missed that it was the "questions" thing rather than the "masons shooting" thing you were drawing attention to.
@Swan, any comment on what you were trying to say? Were you suggesting that the rest of us should be asking questions in our QTs about it, and if so, was it something you'd asked in your own? (I'm definitely not asking for any form of QT-quoting here, because I don't want to get tangled up in any of that!!)
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If we are choosing between Robz and Swan I’m leaning more towards Robz for the lurking aspect but I don’t think he will be a very informative Lynch because he hasn’t had very many interactions. Swan has been more involved and in return and more informmative lynch, but I don’t think the amount if knowledge gained by his lynch is worth the risk of losing a possible town player.
I still much rather Skumpy or SS. I would also be willing to lynch Simon.
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My question to you was not "what is the most informative lynch", it was explicitly "What would you take away from each possible flip result?". Since you were the person who earlier was trying to ensure that nobody twisted one flip both ways to give you scum points either way around, I thought you would be the best example of someone who could say "If Swan flips scum then I think X is likely, and if he flips town then I think Y", for some sorts of X and Y and likelihoods and stuff. The two flips under discussion were Swan and Robz.
Ah, you're right, sorry. I skimmed the post.
Ok, if Swan flips scum, certainly scum points for raptor because swan was defending him early. Town points for Simon because this
Space - i rode Simon literally to the death up until the last minute day 1. The alt wagon flipped town. If i am skum Simon is 100% town.
which would be ballsy to say about your partner, but not very likely. Also simon is the second person on swan.
swan says skumpy and I are scum buddies. Whenever scum makes a list of people who are scum, they usually include exactly one of their buddies (which is always a bad idea because town always correctly suspects it, but nonetheless most scum still do it). This is a list of only two so it may be different. Still, probably some scum points to scum-π). Or to me I guess from your PoV, but I probably get town points considering his case about the EoD.
And some scum points for you because you stated that you find swan townier now where their lynch seems fairly plausible.
if he's town it's the opposite. ANd as for Robz I really have no idea.
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I think what raptor just posted is the scummiest post of the game so far
If we are choosing between Robz and Swan I’m leaning more towards Robz for the lurking aspect but I don’t think he will be a very informative Lynch because he hasn’t had very many interactions. Swan has been more involved and in return and more informmative lynch, but I don’t think the amount if knowledge gained by his lynch is worth the risk of losing a possible town player.
I still much rather Skumpy or SS. I would also be willing to lynch Simon.
1) doesn't defend themselves
2) I want to do X but X is bad. You can be nuanced, that's not the issue; it's ok to say "I want X even though X has is probelmatic" but it's worse to say "I want X but X will be bad".
3) overly careful tone
4) totally empty point in the end, what does it mean it's not worth losing a potential town player? Every lynch risks losing a potential town player.
I also think that, based on this post, if raptor flips scum, then Swan is scum and Robz is town.
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I think what raptor just posted is the scummiest post of the game so far
If we are choosing between Robz and Swan I’m leaning more towards Robz for the lurking aspect but I don’t think he will be a very informative Lynch because he hasn’t had very many interactions. Swan has been more involved and in return and more informmative lynch, but I don’t think the amount if knowledge gained by his lynch is worth the risk of losing a possible town player.
I still much rather Skumpy or SS. I would also be willing to lynch Simon.
1) doesn't defend themselves
2) I want to do X but X is bad. You can be nuanced, that's not the issue; it's ok to say "I want X even though X has is probelmatic" but it's worse to say "I want X but X will be bad".
3) overly careful tone
4) totally empty point in the end, what does it mean it's not worth losing a potential town player? Every lynch risks losing a potential town player.
I also think that, based on this post, if raptor flips scum, then Swan is scum and Robz is town.
1) defend my self from what? Your vote? I don’t even know why you are voting me. You haven’t really made a case against me.
2) I’m weighing my options out loud and sharing my opinion. Isn’t that the point.
3) awe thanks, it was like a 5 min phone post.
4) My point at the end is neither is the best lynch and I rather vote you, skumpy or Simon.
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what has tone to do with the time you took to write it?
2) I’m weighing my options out loud and sharing my opinion. Isn’t that the point. [/quite]
Yes, yes. You're supposed to do that, precisely because it allows others to draw conclusions from it. I concluded that you are scum because you did it. It was very pro-town.
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Fixed quote:
2) I’m weighing my options out loud and sharing my opinion. Isn’t that the point.
Yes, yes. You're supposed to do that, precisely because it allows others to draw conclusions from it. I concluded that you are scum because you did it. It was very pro-town.
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Care to address point one? Your case on me?
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Raptor, since I've answered your question on time spent online, I'd appreciate it if you returned the favor.
Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.
2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)
*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*
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Care to address point one? Your case on me?
I admit that I didn't have a coherent case on you before now. However, there's been lots of suspicion on you floating around. If you feel like no-one stated reasons, a way to defend yourself is to point that out. Challenge the people who scumread you. Instead you waited until the wagon died down without you doing anything and then ignored it.
Also @everyone, take a look at this: I’m weighing my options out loud and sharing my opinion. Isn’t that the point.
"Why did you find out I was scum, I was doing everything righ?!"
tell me this isn't what that sounds like!
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Raptor, since I've answered your question on time spent online, I'd appreciate it if you returned the favor.
Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.
2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)
*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*
Swan mixed up Mason and Neighbourizer, he said that. And someone has answered it. What’s your question about it?
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Care to address point one? Your case on me?
I admit that I didn't have a coherent case on you before now. However, there's been lots of suspicion on you floating around. If you feel like no-one stated reasons, a way to defend yourself is to point that out. Challenge the people who scumread you. Instead you waited until the wagon died down without you doing anything and then ignored it.
Also @everyone, take a look at this: I’m weighing my options out loud and sharing my opinion. Isn’t that the point.
"Why did you find out I was scum, I was doing everything righ?!"
tell me this isn't what that sounds like!
So you have no case on me (your top scum read) and you are voting me based off of everyone’s suspicion of me? Super scummy
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request vote count
I can do that right?
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Raptor, since I've answered your question on time spent online, I'd appreciate it if you returned the favor.
Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.
2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)
*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*
Swan mixed up Mason and Neighbourizer, he said that. And someone has answered it. What’s your question about it?
The last line, assuming he meant 'answers' instead of 'questions'. How do you know the answers to the questions that don't make sense?
On the one hand, these should still be questions you ask in a QT if you're scum. But if he's town, I don't see the rhyme or reason in it.
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So you have no case on me (your top scum read) and you are voting me based off of everyone’s suspicion of me? Super scummy
???
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One thing I'm now pretty sure I was wrong about:
Raptor and silver aren't teamed after all. Ah well.
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What do you feel now?
Vote Count 2.6
Skumpy (4): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan
Xxraptorslayer96 (1): silverspawn
Simon Jester (1): Robz888
DatSwan (3): EFHW, Simon Jester, Skumpy
Robz888 (1): SpaceAnemone
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm. That's in 1,(3) hours.
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Update: gone from an hour before until 20-30 minutes before deadline. SHOULD be around after that, definitely for 1 or 2 quick posts if needed.
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Actually why is Datswan an informative lynch at all?
If Swan is town, it gives us an almost certain scum between Simon and silver, because if you and I trust each other to be town, then there's nothing but green-and-silver on the Simon wagon for over 100 posts. I think it also makes it even more likely that there's one in {EFHW-Raptor}, because if there were three amongst the other players then the chance of one of them being Swan would be higher.
If Swan is Scum, I think the likelihood of Simon being scum goes up a bit, because Swan is voting silver right now, and also because scum!Simon opening the game with an RVS vote on a buddy and them proceeding to vote for almost everyone in the game kind of makes sense.
It's not the most informative thing going, but we do have to start cracking the nut of where the scums are in {Robz, Raptor, Swan, Skumpy, Simon (and maybe gkrieg)} at some point if we're going to win.
Space - i rode Simon literally to the death up until the last minute day 1. The alt wagon flipped town. If i am skum Simon is 100% town.
I agree with GK. Color me suspicious on both you and efhw at this point.
I need to actually finish isolating stuff to make a choice on if it is substantiated - but this push is weak/phony
Are you reading that as me pushing for your lynch or something? It's not a push, it's a direct response to gkrieg complaining that EFHW's proposal is a very uninformative lynch. And I more or less agree: lynching you is not that informative, so I summarised all the vague information we might hope to get, and it's weak. I think if anything, you're agreeing with me...
No sorry i mis read your post - you are correct i am agreeing with you.
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I'm home and catching up on the last few hours now. Will be here till deadline, modulo a few trips through to the kitchen to cook dinner.
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Simon, you seem to think that weird -> probably scum. Totally wrong! Weird -> probably town. That might not be 100% true for everyone, but it's a pretty good general rule.
Skumpy is like one of the most obv!town players that has ever obv!towned without any PR stuff.
I know, that's why I don't want to vote. I guess I rather mean that it starting to become anti-town and distracting and that it annoys me to the part I could see a point in a lynch there.
Still happy with my vote, especially as it's not getting much traction and I think we might have scum on the Skumpy- wagon. Therefor I'm also willing to vote raptor if that seems to be a better choice than Swan for most people.
Gkrieg want to lynch me, huh? Such a surprise.
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Will be here for some time by the way, might fall asleep before deadline though. Long day today.
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Space count as of #717
Skumpy (4): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan
Simon Jester (1): Robz888
Xxraptorslayer96 (1): silverspawn
DatSwan (3): EFHW, Simon Jester, Skumpy
Robz888 (1): SpaceAnemone
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Oh, sorry, LL, I missed that you'd done a proper one!! Nice to see that my script agrees, though.
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My question to you was not "what is the most informative lynch", it was explicitly "What would you take away from each possible flip result?". Since you were the person who earlier was trying to ensure that nobody twisted one flip both ways to give you scum points either way around, I thought you would be the best example of someone who could say "If Swan flips scum then I think X is likely, and if he flips town then I think Y", for some sorts of X and Y and likelihoods and stuff. The two flips under discussion were Swan and Robz.
Ah, you're right, sorry. I skimmed the post.
Ok, if Swan flips scum, certainly scum points for raptor because swan was defending him early. Town points for Simon because this
Space - i rode Simon literally to the death up until the last minute day 1. The alt wagon flipped town. If i am skum Simon is 100% town.
which would be ballsy to say about your partner, but not very likely. Also simon is the second person on swan.
swan says skumpy and I are scum buddies. Whenever scum makes a list of people who are scum, they usually include exactly one of their buddies (which is always a bad idea because town always correctly suspects it, but nonetheless most scum still do it). This is a list of only two so it may be different. Still, probably some scum points to scum-π). Or to me I guess from your PoV, but I probably get town points considering his case about the EoD.
And some scum points for you because you stated that you find swan townier now where their lynch seems fairly plausible.
if he's town it's the opposite. ANd as for Robz I really have no idea.
drawing reads specifically off of my flip is probably a bad idea at this point. except for the part about Simon, because it is the only one that is actually backed up by evidence.
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I'm here until deadline.
I am going through, and I have to agree the more skumpy talks the less confident I am - but also that could be his game plan so idk.
I am also good with SS and Simon.
Really don't think the Robz concept is getting us anywhere.
No Awaclus or Raptor.
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Skumpy is like my least favorite wagon of all time. He's said and done sooooo many things that a newbie scum would be way too scared to do. Also this wagon is just so... inevitable.
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Wait, we have like 25 more minutes, is that right? Um, ok
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Vote: DatSwan, as the only currently viable skumpy alternative.
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@Skumpy, looking at how the Galz wagon went down, if you're town, and you're so convinved of how townie Simon is, surely that makes you think that Robz has to be scum? Why wasn't he even a member of your "it has to be silver/Swan/X" scumteam?
@Robz, Skumpy isn't really that much of a newbie by now, is he? He's been on a winning scumteam before and everything...
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@Skumpy, looking at how the Galz wagon went down, if you're town, and you're so convinved of how townie Simon is, surely that makes you think that Robz has to be scum? Why wasn't he even a member of your "it has to be silver/Swan/X" scumteam?
@Robz, Skumpy isn't really that much of a newbie by now, is he? He's been on a winning scumteam before and everything...
Oh, what games has he played? He was here during my retirement?
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Okay, well maybe that changes things.
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Are you scum-reading him, Space?
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@Skumpy, looking at how the Galz wagon went down, if you're town, and you're so convinved of how townie Simon is, surely that makes you think that Robz has to be scum? Why wasn't he even a member of your "it has to be silver/Swan/X" scumteam?
@Robz, Skumpy isn't really that much of a newbie by now, is he? He's been on a winning scumteam before and everything...
Oh, what games has he played? He was here during my retirement?
skumpy has played 3 other games on site I believe. MVP in 2 of them.
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Also robz you need to try harder. cmon man - how is this my skum game?
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Also robz you need to try harder. cmon man - how is this my skum game?
Well, I don't really think it is but we have 20 minutes to go and there are only two wagons.
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What was skumpy like in his scum games?
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Skumpy isn't really that much of a newbie by now, is he? He's been on a winning scumteam before and everything...
Twice!
Here by the way, catching up
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What do you feel now?
Vote Count 2.7
Skumpy (4): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan
Xxraptorslayer96 (1): silverspawn
DatSwan (4): EFHW, Simon Jester, Skumpy, Robz888
Robz888 (1): SpaceAnemone
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm. That's in 19 minutes.
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@Skumpy, looking at how the Galz wagon went down, if you're town, and you're so convinved of how townie Simon is, surely that makes you think that Robz has to be scum? Why wasn't he even a member of your "it has to be silver/Swan/X" scumteam?
Because an alternative is Raptor could be scum with 2 on the Simon wagon.
And also because, I have seen it end up with an entire wagon of 5 town pushing another town, while all 3 scum went to the other town wagon. X could be Robz for all I know.
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@Skumpy, looking at how the Galz wagon went down, if you're town, and you're so convinved of how townie Simon is, surely that makes you think that Robz has to be scum? Why wasn't he even a member of your "it has to be silver/Swan/X" scumteam?
@Robz, Skumpy isn't really that much of a newbie by now, is he? He's been on a winning scumteam before and everything...
Oh, what games has he played? He was here during my retirement?
skumpy has played 3 other games on site I believe. MVP in 2 of them.
Since everybody's talking about it apparently:
I didn't want to brag, but to fill in the gaps, I'm 4-0, 2-0 as each alignment, basically with an MVP as each (1 was never official).
I'm not THAT bad at this game.
To Robz: it's too late to answer that question. I feel like I tried to copy my town meta in one, and let everybody else be irrational in the other and tried to act as the voice of reason.
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I'm not THAT bad at this game.
Though that could change very soon
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I can't believe a MAJORITY of players thinks skumpy is scummier than raptor.
I guess I'll support the swan lynch.
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Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.
2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)
*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*
This is seriously lame that like 2 people have answered this despite me posting it 4 times.
If you don't have a good answer, vote Swan.
Swan, you've had an hour to think of your answer. You'd better have a good one.
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I'll go for vote: Swan.
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L-1
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L-1
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If this is town (which I still feel like it could be, despite my logic), lynch me tomorrow, I'll graciously take the LVP and apologize.
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L-1
Sorry.. just remembered, and you beat me to it!
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I can't believe a MAJORITY of players thinks skumpy is scummier than raptor.
I guess I'll support the swan lynch.
Might be good not to leave it till the last second. I think most of the people present are already on Swan now, right?
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Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.
2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)
*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*
This is seriously lame that like 2 people have answered this despite me posting it 4 times.
If you don't have a good answer, vote Swan.
Swan, you've had an hour to think of your answer. You'd better have a good one.
wtf are you talking about I answered this literally like 6 days ago.
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*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*
Does anybody read anything I write?
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skum is playing ok, but town is playing bad.
look at the wagons people all I got to say.
My case on skumpy is light years ahead of anyone's "case on me" yet here we sit last minute as hell just whatevering...
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vote: swan
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I can't believe a MAJORITY of players thinks skumpy is scummier than raptor.
I guess I'll support the swan lynch.
Might be good not to leave it till the last second. I think most of the people present are already on Swan now, right?
thanks for saying that I would have missed it. For some reason I thought there were a few more minutes.
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welp I am VT
it is NOTTTTTT Raptor
it is probably skumpy
it is def SS
and it is most likely EFHW if one of those isn't right.
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yeah bummer - 17 seconds later and it would of been a good decision....
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well fuck. Not that I'm surprised.
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Eh, no-lynch is still quite bad.
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Since LL's not here yet Swan:
Also, since nobody's answered me:
Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.
2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)
*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*
That post from Swan was #478. Then at #497 he said that he'd mixed up Mason and Neighbourizer. What is left that you don't understand?
The last line, assuming he meant 'answers' instead of 'questions'. How do you know the answers to the questions that don't make sense?
On the one hand, these should still be questions you ask in a QT if you're scum. But if he's town, I don't see the rhyme or reason in it.
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go back and check the weak ass case that was made then look at who joined up - then compare that to yesterday. Normally wanna say I wouldn't have to point that out, but since we are where we are at now....
Also - this is the fun part where you realize my flip pretty much tells you nothing because all I did was speculate. Simon is not more or less skummy because I am town. Raptor is not more or less skummy because I am town. The only upside to my lynch was if I flipped as skum... which I am pretty sure the majority of you probably assumed wouldn't happen.
Either way - GG all have fun gl town!
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Thread Locked.
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What do you feel now?
Vote Count 2.final
Skumpy (4): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan
DatSwan (6): EFHW, Simon Jester, Skumpy, Robz888, SpaceAnemone, silverspawn
With 10 alive, it took 6 to Lynch.
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You remembered your first outbursts. Walking in the park seeing someone yelling at their kids. Seeing a woman with a pram crossing the road on red. Seeing your favorite character dying in the book.
You reacted on those things as you felt right. You thought there are some things that people obviously should not do. But everyone just told you to stay Calm. "I don't belong to this world", said you.
DatSwan was Calm, a Vanilla Town.
Have a good night. It will end in 48 hours, 24th of August at 5 pm FT.
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"Thank you, Mr. Therapist, but I don't think that I can be saved. Ever". Nothing good will ever happen to you. You are starting to lose it.
Simon Jester was killed! He was Calm, a Vanilla Townie.
Awaclus was killed! He was Joyful, a Town Mason.
Day 3 starts now!
Vote Count 3.0
Not Voting (7): Robz888, Skumpy, SpaceAnemone, EFHW, gkrieg13, silverspawn, Xxraptorslayer96
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 3 ends Friday, August 31th at 5.30 pm FT. Thread unlocked!
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Do we have consensus about claiming today? I can go first. Then we can set an order from there.
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Awaclus was killed! He was Joyful, a Town Mason.
That was a bad call. Win was in hand. Not game-losingly bad, since this is even more lost for town than before. But bad.
Before any claims happen, I need to know, for the third time:
Gkrieg: How confident are you in the towntell on Space?? 100%
I also wrote a nice, emotional pre-post 2 hours after the flip. I've calmed down since, but I'll post that when the time comes. As well as the more logical one I planned last night.
I'm not losing this a complete fool.
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Sorry I wasn't around for the deadline. With Simon dead, we should have a little bit of information along with a couple of ICs.
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Awaclus was killed! He was Joyful, a Town Mason.
That was a bad call. Win was in hand. Not game-losingly bad, since this is even more lost for town than before. But bad.
Before any claims happen, I need to know, for the third time:
Gkrieg: How confident are you in the towntell on Space?? 100%
I also wrote a nice, emotional pre-post 2 hours after the flip. I've calmed down since, but I'll post that when the time comes. As well as the more logical one I planned last night.
I'm not losing this a complete fool.
I'm certainly not 100% on it. It's definitely not something I'm sticking to at LYLO, just something to keep in mind. Space is smart, and they are more than capable of realizing something was a scumtell for them and not doing it.
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Wait, what does the first part of your post mean Skumpy?
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Wait, what does the first part of your post mean Skumpy?
It's Awaclus. It wasn't a mystery where his vote was going.
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I also think we should organize the claim without anyone saying much.
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Wait, what does the first part of your post mean Skumpy?
It's Awaclus. It wasn't a mystery where his vote was going.
It would've been a showy, unnecessary play to let him live. But if would have been juicy. Disappointed.
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I'm reasonably sure that the only person who's ever told me I've had a town tell before was lying scum.
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I also wrote a nice, emotional pre-post 2 hours after the flip.
The longer I sit on this, the longer it's going to look fake btw. But whatever.
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I'm reasonably sure that the only person who's ever told me I've had a town tell before was lying scum.
I'm saying you have a scum tell you aren't doing.
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Well, we should massclaim.
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massclaim is obvious. Proposed order:
Skumpy
EFHW
silver
Raptor
Robz
Space
gkrieg
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Claim 2nd, and I'm fine with that
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Claim 2nd, and I'm fine with that
As in you want me to claim in the 2nd place?
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Would be pretty gutsy for scum!gkrieg to just be like, hey, here's the order, I'm last. Makes me think town.
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Sooner the better, whatever happens, with a vig around. Not that they're getting CCed.
VT
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I'm fine with gkrieg's order, though I'm also really quite in need of sleep tonight, so I can't guarantee I'm awake close to the end of the process!
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oh my god.
Skumpy. I know you don't mind claiming first because you're town. Buy you're supposed to claim later because we want SCUM to claim EARLY.
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massclaim is obvious. Proposed order:
Skumpy
EFHW
silver
Raptor
Robz
Space
gkrieg
Hahaha. Ok, let's get serious.
1. Raptor
2. gkrieg
3. space
4. Robz
5. silver
6. EFHW
7. Skumpy
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What is the point of this? Skumpy already claimed.
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I know skumpy already claimed, which was a horrible idea. But let's follow that order from now on. Raptor claims next.
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oh my god.
Skumpy. I know you don't mind claiming first because you're town. Buy you're supposed to claim later because we want SCUM to claim EARLY.
Don't butter me up, this is a vegan game.
If 6/7 of the people left have been here, let's claim and get this over with while scum's still digesting. I don't want to wait for Raptor to show.
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I think silver is conf!scum because of the Simon wagon at the end of D1. Everyone other than him and me on that wagon have already flipped town, and the wagon itself is now confirmed to have been on a town, as Skumpy said it would be.
I'm happy continuing the claim stuff before we start laying down votes, but no way am I following a claim order suggested by silver.
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Personally, I would like silver to claim next. I also think EFHW (who is unfortunately showing as now offline) should claim before Raptor, since I still think one of other of that pair has to be scum, and I'm leaning on it being EFHW, especially after all of yesterday's defensiveness.
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I think silver is conf!scum because of the Simon wagon at the end of D1. Everyone other than him and me on that wagon have already flipped town, and the wagon itself is now confirmed to have been on a town, as Skumpy said it would be.
I'm happy continuing the claim stuff before we start laying down votes, but no way am I following a claim order suggested by silver.
What about gkrieg and EFHW's first vote?
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I think silver is conf!scum because of the Simon wagon at the end of D1. Everyone other than him and me on that wagon have already flipped town, and the wagon itself is now confirmed to have been on a town, as Skumpy said it would be.
... so?
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like what does this even mean. there are 2 town wagons, why should being on one be worse than on the other?
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I think silver is conf!scum because of the Simon wagon at the end of D1. Everyone other than him and me on that wagon have already flipped town, and the wagon itself is now confirmed to have been on a town, as Skumpy said it would be.
I'm happy continuing the claim stuff before we start laying down votes, but no way am I following a claim order suggested by silver.
What about gkrieg and EFHW's first vote?
You mean their votes on the Simon wagon? They came over 100 votes after silver's, right as the deadline was drawing in.
There's also the fact that silver had three town votes on him earlier in D1 without a single scum showing up. I was willing to write that off earlier as scum knowing that my vote was more or less RVS, but right now it contributes to thinking he wasn't attracting scum votes because his buddies didn't feel the need risk pushing that wagon.
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I think silver is conf!scum because of the Simon wagon at the end of D1. Everyone other than him and me on that wagon have already flipped town, and the wagon itself is now confirmed to have been on a town, as Skumpy said it would be.
I'm happy continuing the claim stuff before we start laying down votes, but no way am I following a claim order suggested by silver.
What about gkrieg and EFHW's first vote?
You mean their votes on the Simon wagon? They came over 100 votes after silver's, right as the deadline was drawing in.
There's also the fact that silver had three town votes on him earlier in D1 without a single scum showing up. I was willing to write that off earlier as scum knowing that my vote was more or less RVS, but right now it contributes to thinking he wasn't attracting scum votes because his buddies didn't feel the need risk pushing that wagon.
Misunderstood, thought you meant EOD.
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There's also the fact that silver had three town votes on him earlier in D1 without a single scum showing up.
How could this possibly constitute any non-negligible amount of evidence? Are you telling me that votes early in day 1 are so far from random that if three people vote for someone that someone is probbaly scum? what?
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like what does this even mean. there are 2 town wagons, why should being on one be worse than on the other?
I mean it's exceedingly rare to have a purely town-on-town wagon, that endures for over 100 posts, and reaches five town-on-town votes with no action from scum. So the logical answer is that scum was involved, with a very high probability.
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like what does this even mean. there are 2 town wagons, why should being on one be worse than on the other?
I mean it's exceedingly rare to have a purely town-on-town wagon, that endures for over 100 posts, and reaches five town-on-town votes with no action from scum. So the logical answer is that scum was involved, with a very high probability.
But town doesn't know whether I'm town or scum. So how can me being town possibly make it less likely to happen?
If your point is just that it's unlikely for no scum to be ON a wagon for a long time, then idk if that's legit or not but we know it happened, so it doesn't matter.
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like what does this even mean. there are 2 town wagons, why should being on one be worse than on the other?
I mean it's exceedingly rare to have a purely town-on-town wagon, that endures for over 100 posts, and reaches five town-on-town votes with no action from scum. So the logical answer is that scum was involved, with a very high probability.
But town doesn't know whether I'm town or scum. So how can me being town possibly make it less likely to happen?
If your point is just that it's unlikely for no scum to be ON a wagon for a long time, then idk if that's legit or not but we know it happened, so it doesn't matter.
Actually, if you weren't already behaving like caught scum, you probably ought to be arguing that I could be scum for all you know. From your PoV, that still ought to have been a strong possibility if you were actually town, rather than scum who knows I'm innocent.
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Also can someone please explain to me how gkrieg, who has been flying under the radar the whole time in a game where every big wagon was on town and that really looks like scum is flying under the radar, is just treated like an IC? I don't understand. How is he not a major suspect? Why would anyone let him make a reads list?
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like what does this even mean. there are 2 town wagons, why should being on one be worse than on the other?
I mean it's exceedingly rare to have a purely town-on-town wagon, that endures for over 100 posts, and reaches five town-on-town votes with no action from scum. So the logical answer is that scum was involved, with a very high probability.
But town doesn't know whether I'm town or scum. So how can me being town possibly make it less likely to happen?
If your point is just that it's unlikely for no scum to be ON a wagon for a long time, then idk if that's legit or not but we know it happened, so it doesn't matter.
Actually, if you weren't already behaving like caught scum, you probably ought to be arguing that I could be scum for all you know. From your PoV, that still ought to have been a strong possibility if you were actually town, rather than scum who knows I'm innocent.
I have no idea what you're talking about. Do you admit that the original argument doesn't make any sense? If yes I can try to understand what new point you're making.
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Also can someone please explain to me how gkrieg, who has been flying under the radar the whole time in a game where every big wagon was on town and that really looks like scum is flying under the radar, is just treated like an IC? I don't understand. How is he not a major suspect? Why would anyone let him make a reads list?
Yesterday several of us agreed he's looking very townie. Skumpy even used his townread on gkrieg to assist his townread on me. The fact he hasn't picked up a single vote over the entire game so far implies that people townread him quite broadly!
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like what does this even mean. there are 2 town wagons, why should being on one be worse than on the other?
I mean it's exceedingly rare to have a purely town-on-town wagon, that endures for over 100 posts, and reaches five town-on-town votes with no action from scum. So the logical answer is that scum was involved, with a very high probability.
But town doesn't know whether I'm town or scum. So how can me being town possibly make it less likely to happen?
If your point is just that it's unlikely for no scum to be ON a wagon for a long time, then idk if that's legit or not but we know it happened, so it doesn't matter.
Actually, if you weren't already behaving like caught scum, you probably ought to be arguing that I could be scum for all you know. From your PoV, that still ought to have been a strong possibility if you were actually town, rather than scum who knows I'm innocent.
I have no idea what you're talking about. Do you admit that the original argument doesn't make any sense? If yes I can try to understand what new point you're making.
I've bolded the bit where you claim that we know there was indeed a five-towns-on-town wagon with no scum interference. You can't know that if you don't know my alignment.
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Also can someone please explain to me how gkrieg, who has been flying under the radar the whole time in a game where every big wagon was on town and that really looks like scum is flying under the radar, is just treated like an IC? I don't understand. How is he not a major suspect? Why would anyone let him make a reads list?
Why would we follow your reads list? Especially when it is nearly the exact opposite of mine.
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Also why didn't you put yourself last on your claim list?
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So your point is that you were on the wagon?
I had no idea who was on the wagon. I don't even remember having had an early wagon in day 1. It's not really something important. I just took your word for it that there was one and that only town was on it.
Something went wrong this game if I'm having to defend myself from having had you and two other people vote for me early on.
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Also why didn't you put yourself last on your claim list?
Because I was making the list based on a vague estimate of how towny people 'ought' to be right now based on wagon positions and such, not on my personal reads. I don't expect people to townread me as much as skumpy. I'm pretty sure I'm harder to read.
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well I'm off to sleep. no way I'm claiming before raptor.
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While I'm arguing wagons. The Galz wagon was started by Robz at #313. Just over 80 posts later, it is again a wagon on town with five people, most of whom have now flipped town. The two who have not are Robz and Skumpy, so I'm confident that at least one of the two is scum.
Then from yesterday's play, I think there has to be one scum in {Skumpy, gkrieg, Raptor}, because that wagon endured for hundreds of posts, and the other later participants have now also both flipped town.
This isn't quite enough to solve the game on its own, but all it takes is a small number of "X is obviously not partners with Y" to narrow it down.
Anyway, I'm afraid it's bed for me for now. I would caution town against buying too much into the silver and Skumpy show if they continue to chat and suggest changing the claim list and stuff some more now!
PPE 5: yeah, sleep is good!
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If either Raptor or gkrieg are town who have been tunneling me relentlessly this whole game, this is already over.
I don't want to vote Silver. That's a game-losing lynch on D3, because I'm next if he's scum. If town's winning this, I need to prove myself.
I'm done waiting, here's what I typed up 47 hours ago. It's harsh. It's over-the-top. It's also very amusing at this point in time. I'm taking out the bold of the vote for now...that will come later. Hopefully soon. (I also wrote 'basically LYLO' before I knew somebody was going to shoot my biggest townread)
(Disclaimer: Profanity restrained and edited out as much as possible: that doesn’t mean there isn’t any)
I’m mad. I’m very, very mad. Mad at Awaclus for the usual reasons. Mad at Swan for not reading my posts. Mad at LaLight for terrifying me with the flavor. Mad at myself. Mad at Faust, and he isn’t even in this game. Not mad at the scum team, you guys have been great!
Two dead townies have accused silver with their dying breath. Town all thinks I’m teamed with him. I should probably be voting there to have the best chance of being right. I said if Swan’s town, he’s scum. Super suspicious that I’m not, right? Well, I’m beyond caring.
Vote: Gkrieg
Rational side first. This is basically LYLO. No strongman roleblockling is happening tonight. If gkrieg’s going to be voting for me, again, no matter who I vote for, then 3 scum get to pile on and then it’s all over. Yes, there could be 2 RB’s who counterclaim each other and that’s where the vote gets placed. Maybe gkrieg’s even the town RB, heaven forbid. Doesn’t matter. There’s no way he votes where I vote today. Therefore, I’m forced into counter-voting my voter.
Less rational side as I let emotions take hold: No, no, and no again. Life is too short for me to have spent more than 1/26 of 2018 letting you accuse me and me going, “no, no, it’s fine. I get it. Good call!” I’m past that. If you’re scum, I’m not letting you win this game and bring home the MVP without taking on a single vote this whole goddamn time. And if you’re town, I may have been awful and as I said, I’m more than comfortable taking the LVP, but you’ve been just as bad. I’ve at least thrown out a scum name at some point. You haven’t. So let this be a lesson before you get confident and tunnel me relentlessly an entire game. Don’t ever pull that shit again, no matter how convinced you are. Ignore that if you’re scum, seriously well played.
If you townies aren’t convinced by anything at all, vote me and let’s get this over with, no need to prolong this disaster any longer. Scum, please do the same if I’m wrong.
Rant’s over. Love you all, I’m sure you’re all great people with great character. How is everybody feeling today? Any fun weekend plans?
As for the logical stuff I promised:
I haven't played well enough this game for all 3 scum to not vote me D2, despite the fact that I maintain I had a very good case on Swan. There's scum in gkrieg and Raptor. If I'm wrong, they're coming for me anyways, what I can do?
If Raptor is scum without gkrieg, then it's either:
Raptor/Space/EFHW
Raptor/Space/Silver
Raptor/Space/Robz
Raptor/EFHW/Silver
Raptor/EFHW/Robz
Raptor/Silver/Robz
By gkrieg's own admission, he can read Space. If he's town and they're scum, I'm definitely holding him very accountable, though I'll take 2nd prize.
I believe I was wrong, that EOD2 interaction doesn't seem like team infighitng between Raptor and Silver. Could be wrong. DatSwan also knows Raptor, I'll put some faith in that read. Swan was very wrong about one thing though; give scum more credit than 'they've been OK'.
And if Silver's town and Raptor's scum, Raptor doesn't put the vote on scum!EFHW before VLA. Especially since my vote's not going to ss.
Gkrieg it is for me.
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Question for LL before I go, so I might get an answer before I'm awake again: may I post historical vote counts coloured in as part of a case, or would you prefer that I only do them in black text?
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Also can someone please explain to me how gkrieg, who has been flying under the radar the whole time in a game where every big wagon was on town and that really looks like scum is flying under the radar, is just treated like an IC? I don't understand. How is he not a major suspect? Why would anyone let him make a reads list?
How about this: I'm the Roleblocker. Not saying who I blocked. My suggested order:
Robz
raptor
gkrieg
Space
silver
Skumpy
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Not saying who I blocked.
It's not going to really matter anyways, not with a full strongman. Assuming you're town, the person you RB'd may even be the vig if scum RB'd you.
Vig: Do not claim 1-shot or full. We're at 4 known non-T's. Scum cannot tell the difference between 4 and 5
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Not saying who I blocked.
It's not going to really matter anyways, not with a full strongman. Assuming you're town, the person you RB'd may even be the vig if scum RB'd you
Yes, I realize that.
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Question for LL before I go, so I might get an answer before I'm awake again: may I post historical vote counts coloured in as part of a case, or would you prefer that I only do them in black text?
Sure, but don’t use AA00AA plz
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How about this: I'm the Roleblocker. Not saying who I blocked. My suggested order:
Robz
raptor
gkrieg
Space
silver
Skumpy
Tht's fine with me.
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I wasn't expecting that from EFHW, but it helps us a lot with PoE on inactive players if it's true. I don't like how far down her claim list my biggest scumread is sitting, though, so I'm maintaining some scepticism until we know if anyone is going to counterclaim.
In fact, would it be worth doing a round of yes/no to whether anyone is counterclaiming EFHW before proceeding with the claims? As I said earlier, there is a small risk that we do have two genuine RBs (not counting the scum one), but I also think that's further reduced now that we've seen two kills in a relatively small number of players.
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Ahh, I was totally off by a day. I’ve just done a quick read through. I don’t mind EFHW’s claims list. I’ll check in to claim tomorrow.
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Here's my case on silver. This is probabilistic, rather than anything based on slips and tells, but then he's a very experienced player, so it's not surprising.
1) I actually disagreed with most of Galz's case on him early on, because I thought that what Galz was scumreading was just silver's style. I'm defensive about that because I aim to play in a Bayesian style too.
2) The first alarm bell was when I looked at the voting patterns in N1 and noticed that from my point of view, everyone voting for silver at #219 was town, and yet no scums were attracted to that wagon:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (3): SpaceAnemone, Galzria, iguanaiguana
SpaceAnemone (1): EFHW
Awaclus (2): Robz888, Skumpy
EFHW (4): silverspawn, Awaclus, Simon Jester, Xxraptorslayer96
Not Voting (1): DatSwan
As I say, this was very weak evidence, because people were aware that my vote had been RVS. Iguana diverted to the EFHW wagon not long after.
3) silver started the Simon wagon at #244, and it grew quite rapidly. Here's what that looked like at #289 at #313; nobody else moved on or off in between.
#289
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
Awaclus (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, Awaclus
#313
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
Awaclus (2): Skumpy, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, Awaclus
Robz888 (1): Simon Jester
Galzria (1): Robz888
I argue that this is strong evidence, because five towns on a townie, without attracting even one vote from scum in the interim is unusual. Here's a post I made over a year ago, back in RMM43 (http://"http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=17234.msg702106#msg702106") about chances of all-town-on-town wagons happening in D1. I'd been using exactly this sort of wagon analysis to point out that at least one of Haddock and faust were scum based on a D1 wagon, and I was right, but couldn't get traction/support because they were both scum and nobody else in the game was quite numbersy enough to support it.
Note: I've left EFHW green in these counts because I was exploring how that looked on my own vote history view, and forgot to turn the option off before spitting out the f.ds-printable one. I guess if Raptor has now checked in and is not counterclaiming, that's positive, because he's one of the people I had thought might do so.
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I see what you are saying but I have a reason to keep the order as it is.
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I see what you are saying but I have a reason to keep the order as it is.
Well, as I said, I'm colouring you green for now, so I guess I'll bite.
That means it's Robz up next, then Raptor.
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Not very active now. Just waiting for my turn.
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I don’t love that I have to claim before silver. Are we sure about this?
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I don’t love that I have to claim before silver. Are we sure about this?
I think at this point, stalling is only in scum's interest, because it gives us less time to strategise after the claims are out.
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I don’t love that I have to claim before silver. Are we sure about this?
You do realize that we have a RB and that she is non-countered and therefore an IC? Who told you to claim? What are you doing?
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I don’t love that I have to claim before silver. Are we sure about this?
I think at this point, stalling is only in scum's interest, because it gives us less time to strategise after the claims are out.
No, I think this probably makes Robz town. As town you feel more strongly that you shouldn't have to claim early. If Robz where scum he'd know he'd be guilty, and then it's hard to justify wanting to claim after me. Especially for him, who has contributed almost nothing to the game.
But he absolutely needs to claim with his next post.
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I mean, in the history of f.ds there was probably no scum who ever did anything with the conscious decision of trying to reduce the time that town has to do strategy talk. It's always anti town towns.
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I mean, in the history of f.ds there was probably no scum who ever did anything with the conscious decision of trying to reduce the time that town has to do strategy talk. It's always anti town towns.
This is probably true.
Anyway I am a VT.
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Then why did it matter that silver was claiming after you?
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i am VT
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gkrieg up next?
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Vt
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i am VT
Not what I was hoping for. I guess I should've known.
Vt
But that's good enough for me.
Vote: gkrieg
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What do you feel?
Vote Count 3.1
gkrieg13 (1): Skumpy
Not Voting (6): Robz888, SpaceAnemone, EFHW, gkrieg13, silverspawn, Xxraptorslayer96
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 3 ends Friday, August 31th at 5.30 pm FT.
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please unvote or you risk a quickhammer. We haven't even all claimed yet.
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So assuming Space is the vig, since vig!silver's not shooing Simon over Raptor.
Space: I know you want silver today. But:
I don't want to vote Silver. That's a game-losing lynch on D3, because I'm next if he's scum. If town's winning this, I need to prove myself.
At one point in this game, I said silver and Raptor were teamed. I then took it back.
Now I (and I guess we) need to decide if that page 32 stuff was faked or not.
Space, since EFHW is out of the picture, there's 3 possibilities:
1. You were right about the EFHW-Raptor 1 v 1
2. You were right about the silver scum-because-all-town-wagons
3. I was right about the Raptor and silver aren't teamed after all. Ah well.
It's 2 truths and a lie! Mafia edition!
please unvote or you risk a quickhammer. We haven't even all claimed yet.
I'm good, thanks. How are you doing, silver? What are your plans for today?
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please unvote or you risk a quickhammer. We haven't even all claimed yet.
Also: Unless a town doesn't want to reveal they're the vig, you know who the vig is. You don't need to save us the suspense.
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Actually, since Space must be the vig it doesn't matter who claims first. I'm a VT.
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Ok, so I'm pretty sure all PRs are ICs. We know the vig is real because we had two deaths tonight. We know the RB is real because the one-shot RB died.
That means all scum are among the VT claims. That means {Skumpy, Robz888, gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96} and from your PoV also me.
Given that I'm pretty sure Skumpy is town, that means the team is just {Robz888, gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96}.
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Raptor, a lurker, and gkrieg. Yeah, that feels right.
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You still shouldn't vote before at least EFHW claims her results, though.
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You still shouldn't vote before at least EFHW claims her results, though.
There's still nothing that EFHW can claim that will sway me any which way at all towards anybody. Scum was killing with the strongman, that was unstoppable. No one's ccing vig, so there's no crucial evidence that needs to be provided. She could stay silent and it would have absolutely 0 bearing on this game.
And if I'm scum, I can do what I want, I'm evil.
If we're town, I'm voting scum. Yay.
If I'm town with gkrieg, this is what you want to have happen since you're scum. Also, that's a game over situation.
So why would you protest? And why are you so sure I'm town anyways? I admitted the coalition offer was planned before I saw my qt. I was one of the main 2 wagons yesterday. I've voted and accused a bunch of confirmed town, including a mason. You're right, I am town. But still. What exactly have I done that's so convincing to you and nobody else?
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You still shouldn't vote before at least EFHW claims her results, though.
Results? I'm roleblocker. Blocked Space N1, Robz N2. I guess reverse would have been better.
I would have expected vig!space to shoot silver.
Skumpy voting is scummy.
silver could still be vig.
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One small point in silver's favor, even if I'm the only one who knows it:
Space argues about the Simon wagon he's on and the 3 person wagon in the middle of the day. No answers there.
However, there was also the late push for a silver wagon by Galz, Simon, and EFHW at the end of the day that no scum was on. But the answer for why there was no possible bussing is very simple: there wasn't any scum around to bus.
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Skumpy voting is scummy.
How so?
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Nvm. I keep thinking vig is a scum role.
PPE: It feels like you are trying to push towards a premature conclusion.
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silver feels like that, too. I want to hear from Space that they are the vig.
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Take all the time you want, EFHW. If you think I'm scum, then please DO take your time. But I'm happy with my vote.
Here's the thing. I've never played as town in LYLO. I have played as scum in LYLO. I acted really patient because I thought town is unsure and unconfident in LYLO and wants to take their time to read-through everything. At least town!Skumpy would be.
Now I learn that's total bullshit. I didn't even need ICs to feel ready to start picking out scum, as you saw in my pre-post. I already have a 75% chance without any other factors. If I survive to final 3, maybe I'll start thinking then. No need now.
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The only premature conclusion is that you now think I'm scum. Real smart play by me.
The only world in which I don't vote gkrieg is the world in which I'm town and think he's town. After this game? Come on. I know what I posted at the end of D2, and I rescind that town button. If he gets to tunnel me relentlessly for 2 weeks and you don't complain, I get to return the favor. We're not both town, else this would be absolutely a pathetic showing, and is completely, utterly done. I'm never going to make him townier than all of {Raptor, silver, Robz}, he's not going to do the same for me. And you should only have to read like 5 of our posts from this game before you realize we're not both scum together.
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Yes, I'm the vig.
I shot Simon over silver in the end because it decoupled the Simon wagon from the later Galz wagon by taking out the common unknown factor. If I'd taken silver out, we would not know Simon's alignment for sure, because I don't argue that scum won't bus, only that that many towns voting a town is very unusual. So if I'd done that, we would still have had three unknowns on the Galz wagon, whereas this way we know that it has to be between Robz and Skumpy, from the hundred or so posts after #333.
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Space, since EFHW is out of the picture, there's 3 possibilities:
1. You were right about the EFHW-Raptor 1 v 1
2. You were right about the silver scum-because-all-town-wagons
3. I was right about the Raptor and silver aren't teamed after all. Ah well.
It's 2 truths and a lie! Mafia edition!
I actually think that the most likely thing here is that the scumteam is silver-Skumpy-Raptor, which would explain why you felt you had to make that remark. After all, it's a comment on the playstyle/hostility of two members who, if scum, have a strong incentive to behave in exactly that way, whereas my observations are from back in D1 of the game, where they can't make those kinds of behaviours so overtly because they know they'll have to follow through on them for the whole game, and they don't know how later flips will go (in terms of who will be flipped) to know which wagons are going to look too green to be seen on etc...
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Ok then.
Three lurking scum makes all-town wagons much more likely. Skumpy mentioned something similar. Does that adjust your feelings about silver at all?
PPE
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I'm going to be offline now till around noon forum time because I have things to go out and do.
Tomorrow is a public holiday in the UK, and I'll be VLA pretty much the whole day. Ill probably read by phone and possibly check in at some point, but not my usual levels.
PPE 1: It's something I considered. I can give listings of which missing people posted during which periods, but not till tonight. Have to run now.
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At this point, I think our scum are the three lurkers.
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So why would you protest? And why are you so sure I'm town anyways? I admitted the coalition offer was planned before I saw my qt. I was one of the main 2 wagons yesterday. I've voted and accused a bunch of confirmed town, including a mason. You're right, I am town. But still. What exactly have I done that's so convincing to you and nobody else?
Lots.
There's the deal, for one. I know I said that doesn't give you town points anymore because you planned it beforehand, but it actually does because you admitted to having planed it. Not much, but some. Then there's the EoD behavior with waiting until the last possible moment to switch. Your case on me is a big one, we've been over that. Your case on raptor, which is now becoming more relevant, since now the prior for any of you to be scum is 75%, so raptor is almost certainly scum. Then there's how you handled my repeated insistence that you're town, which feels very natural. And now there's your (in my opinion) horrible idea that town shouldn't be careful this close to the end of the game, which is totally the kind of recklessness that doesn't seem like a big deal for town but would for scum. And then there's the total lack of evidence for the contrary.
I mean, given that you're now in a pool of 4 people where 3 are guaranteed scum, I'd put the chance that you are scum at maybe 40%. But that corresponds to one of the strongest townreads I've ever had. In order for me to switch I'd have to get a stronger townread on anyone else in that group. That's just not gonna happen. So I'm fine with your gkrieg vote as far as the result goes. But out of principle I'm not going to join you until we've reached a consensus. That's just not good town play. Making rushed decisions may be a town tell, but it's not good play.
Oh, also, there might be an argument – in fact, now that I'm thinking about it, there is an argument – for lynching the strongest scum read first. So I'd ideally want to lynch first raptor, and then either gkrieg or robz.
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If you ever become a serious candidate, I might go back and turn that into a more elaborate argument. But right now it doesn't really matter whether I convince others.
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It seems the 4 of us all agree on raptor. Lynch there?
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Then scum can't kill an IC without either tipping their hand or letting their enemy survive.
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Space, since EFHW is out of the picture, there's 3 possibilities:
1. You were right about the EFHW-Raptor 1 v 1
2. You were right about the silver scum-because-all-town-wagons
3. I was right about the Raptor and silver aren't teamed after all. Ah well.
It's 2 truths and a lie! Mafia edition!
I actually think that the most likely thing here is that the scumteam is silver-Skumpy-Raptor, which would explain why you felt you had to make that remark. After all, it's a comment on the playstyle/hostility of two members who, if scum, have a strong incentive to behave in exactly that way, whereas my observations are from back in D1 of the game, where they can't make those kinds of behaviours so overtly because they know they'll have to follow through on them for the whole game, and they don't know how later flips will go (in terms of who will be flipped) to know which wagons are going to look too green to be seen on etc...
I agree with the team, although I can see Robz tucked in there. I’m extremely surprised no one fake claimed, which probably means that none of the scum though they could beat the real roleblocker in a 1v1
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Wow 2 ICs give the other towns really good PoE. I just have to choose out of the other 4 who I think is town.
Robz has seemed townie to me this game and I think would’ve fake claimed roleblocker had he been scum.
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I guess scum didn’t know for sure that there was another role or not, although no one became another mason (UB), so they should have known.
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Yeah, picking the other tow is is pretty easy here: it has to be Skumpy, I think.
That makes for a scum team of gkrieg, silver, and raptor.
Gkrieg is even buddying me in order to dissuade me from voting him!
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Yeah, picking the other tow is is pretty easy here: it has to be Skumpy, I think.
That makes for a scum team of gkrieg, silver, and raptor.
Gkrieg is even buddying me in order to dissuade me from voting him!
Or I like think you’re town.
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Also you really think skumpy is town with his continued vote on me?
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Also you really think skumpy is town with his continued vote on me?
I mean, I will take another look, but I reeeeally don’t see skumpy as scum.
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Also you really think skumpy is town with his continued vote on me?
He could be town if you're scum. The fact that there has been no quickhammer probably means that it is not a town-on-town vote, but that's it.
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@gkrieg, if you want to give me strong evidence that you're town, you could reveal what it is that you think made me town before I was ICd. If that sounds credible enough, it would tip things more in your favour. Otherwise, I do get a bit stuck on the fact that the only other time someone has tried to say I have a tell, they were lying scum. Much of the time, people just get me wrong, you included, at least historically!
Obviously, I gain personally from knowing my tell, so it's a trade-off for you against future games.
Incidentally, this is one reason I would like us to be more sure of the whole scum-team before we proceed with a lynch now, because I'm feeling less optimistic than she is about surviving the night, apparently.
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Yeah, picking the other tow is is pretty easy here: it has to be Skumpy, I think.
If this is true, then you are saying that the entire Galz wagon, up till 40 seconds before deadline, was totally town-driven. Do you mean that?
You started the wagon at #313. At #421, it was up to a total of six votes on a known town, with the other people who'd joined all being conf!town except for Skumpy (Iguana, TA, Simon, EFHW).
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Yeah, picking the other tow is is pretty easy here: it has to be Skumpy, I think.
If this is true, then you are saying that the entire Galz wagon, up till 40 seconds before deadline, was totally town-driven. Do you mean that?
You started the wagon at #313. At #421, it was up to a total of six votes on a known town, with the other people who'd joined all being conf!town except for Skumpy (Iguana, TA, Simon, EFHW).
I know how much you like wagon analysis, but this is far from impossible.
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Space, since EFHW is out of the picture, there's 3 possibilities:
1. You were right about the EFHW-Raptor 1 v 1
2. You were right about the silver scum-because-all-town-wagons
3. I was right about the Raptor and silver aren't teamed after all. Ah well.
It's 2 truths and a lie! Mafia edition!
I actually think that the most likely thing here is that the scumteam is silver-Skumpy-Raptor, which would explain why you felt you had to make that remark. After all, it's a comment on the playstyle/hostility of two members who, if scum, have a strong incentive to behave in exactly that way, whereas my observations are from back in D1 of the game, where they can't make those kinds of behaviours so overtly because they know they'll have to follow through on them for the whole game, and they don't know how later flips will go (in terms of who will be flipped) to know which wagons are going to look too green to be seen on etc...
So in addition to the page 32 stuff where they go after (which isn't necessarily a sign they're not both scum; I said it was because of the WAY in which the argument went down. Could I be wrong? Sure), there's also the fact that silver and I spent half of D2 accusing Raptor with no other people jumping on the entire day. You love wagon analysis (written before I saw Robz PPE post). That should instantly kill this argument for you, or else I don't understand the manner in which you pick and choose the wagons to look at.
Therefore, either gkrieg is scum or Robz is scum. If gkrieg is scum, I'm town. No ifs, ands, buts around it. If Robz is scum, well, I guess I don't have a good reason why that makes me town yet. But as you said, there's almost certainly a scum between us. Gkrieg's flip hopefully would convince you.
It seems the 4 of us all agree on raptor. Lynch there?
Because I don't know if I agree with that. I guess I'm basing this off Swan's read. But since he's wrong about me, maybe I shouldn't. I'm pretty confident on 2 of the scum, it's the 3rd I'm hesitating on. It would nice to guarantee not getting shutout. But since I have to make the hard decision eventually for a win to happen, I guess now vs later isn't a big deal.
And now that I think about it, apparently I'm the only person who's having doubts. EFHW thinks he's scum. Space thinks he's scum. Robz and silver think I'm town, so Raptor's scum. Gkrieg think Robz is town, so Raptor's scum. I don't know if gkrieg/Robz/silver would want the sweep or the win more.
At this point, I think our scum are the three lurkers.
But definitely closer than Space! Thank you!
Then scum can't kill an IC without either tipping their hand or letting their enemy survive.
They're killing you and Space in some order the next 2 days anyways if we get correct lynches.
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Also you really think skumpy is town with his continued vote on me?
He could be town if you're scum. The fact that there has been no quickhammer probably means that it is not a town-on-town vote, but that's it.
I think this lack of quick hammer is pretty key. Very likely means gkrieg is scum, or skumpy is scum.
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I guess we don’t have to decide between skumpy and gkrieg though, since silver and raptor are auto scum them. Unless skumpy-gkrieg is scum on scum, which does not seem super likely. Though it would be incredibly clever if they had pulled that off.
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Also you really think skumpy is town with his continued vote on me?
He could be town if you're scum. The fact that there has been no quickhammer probably means that it is not a town-on-town vote, but that's it.
I think this lack of quick hammer is pretty key. Very likely means gkrieg is scum, or skumpy is scum.
It doesn't mean anything if the scumpartners aren't on at the same time.
I can't take gkrieg or Robz seriously at this point. My mind must be made up.
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Then scum can't kill an IC without either tipping their hand or letting their enemy survive.
They're killing you and Space in some order the next 2 days anyways if we get correct lynches.
I'm saying that since Space I suspect opposite scumteams, they will have no good choices for the nk.
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Space and EFHW are IC'd
leaving Gkrieg , Robz, Skumpy and Silver.
Sliver actually seems really townie today. Skumpy is just skumpy, I always want to vote him based off of his tone. I still think that he is more the probably scum. My preferred lynches for today would be gkrieg or robz.
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Then scum can't kill an IC without either tipping their hand or letting their enemy survive.
They're killing you and Space in some order the next 2 days anyways if we get correct lynches.
I'm saying that since Space I suspect opposite scumteams, they will have no good choices for the nk.
WIFOM is a thing. And since Space's vig status is unknown to all but Space, that could influence things too, potentially.
Let's see if I can work out the Space reasoning. By their beliefs from "2 truths and a lie", there's one leftover scum in {Skumpy/Robz/Gkrieg}. Since there's 1 scum in Skumpy/Robz, as proven by the Galz wagon, Gkrieg is town. Which makes me scum. Admirable. But there's 3 assumptions that require you to get there. I love POE probably more than anyone else. But these are POE assumptions you need to be more careful with. And when it comes to wagon analysis altogether, you have to remember that you have lurkers complicating matters. And in this case: it's a LOT of lurkers on the scumteam.
I can't take gkrieg or Robz seriously at this point. My mind must be made up.
And you think silver is town when basically every dead townie has said "It's silver!" with their dying breath? Not challenging....just questioning.
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Space and EFHW are IC'd
leaving Gkrieg , Robz, Skumpy and Silver.
Sliver actually seems really townie today. Skumpy is just skumpy, I always want to vote him based off of his tone. I still think that he is more the probably scum. My preferred lynches for today would be gkrieg or robz.
Where the heck did that turnabout come from?
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And you think silver is town when basically every dead townie has said "It's silver!" with their dying breath? Not challenging....just questioning.
This is the second time this is brought up. I know this actually happened, but I'd just like to remind everyone that I tried to fight both lynches. In the first case, I specifically argued that the tunneling of me was towny, which I still think it was.
I guess you're just saying that they are confirmed towns who happened to suspect me, not that they are dead because of it. That's true but man their cases were so wrong.
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Space and EFHW are IC'd
leaving Gkrieg , Robz, Skumpy and Silver.
Sliver actually seems really townie today. Skumpy is just skumpy, I always want to vote him based off of his tone. I still think that he is more the probably scum. My preferred lynches for today would be gkrieg or robz.
Where the heck did that turnabout come from?
I'm just as surprised as you are.
This makes me want to lynch raptor less, because weird flip flops are towny. But it's not enough. It could be (and probably is) desperate scum.
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Space and EFHW are IC'd
leaving Gkrieg , Robz, Skumpy and Silver.
Sliver actually seems really townie today. Skumpy is just skumpy, I always want to vote him based off of his tone. I still think that he is more the probably scum. My preferred lynches for today would be gkrieg or robz.
Where the heck did that turnabout come from?
I know that you or silver is 100% scum. But considering silver is being helpful, and I would be upset myself for pushing you based mostly off of the fact that you talk to much and the whole me being online thing. a) You are playing similar to other town games for the most part B) It would be a weird lie for you to say i was online when I have two other players in the game that new I was actually VLA IRL. Thus leaving gkrieg and robz who have both just been lurking. I'm not super familiar with either of their play styles but I would have assumed that they would be more helpful as experienced players.
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I found silver's EOD1 very towny.
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I found silver's EOD1 very towny.
I found it non-scummy, and defended it as such, because he played in a way I thought I might have. However we now know for certain that two wagons at that point were both on town, so scum could afford to play along with whatever they thought looked most townie, and they still got a town lynched.
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silver and I spent half of D2 accusing Raptor with no other people jumping on the entire day. You love wagon analysis (written before I saw Robz PPE post). That should instantly kill this argument for you, or else I don't understand the manner in which you pick and choose the wagons to look at.
I think it's the latter: you voting Raptor in isolation yesterday is not very interesting all for wagon analysis, because there weren't lots of other confirmed townies on the wagon, and there was no cause to wonder why more scum weren't touching the wagon.. everyone was behaving as normal.
What would have made it onto my radar was if you had been pushing him at a point in D1, and a big wagon had built up, and then everyone but you on that wagon had flipped town or been ICd. Then I would suspect strongly that either you were scum, and other scums didn't want to pile on too conspicuously, or that Raptor was scum, and other scums didn't want to pile on at all. And it that case, I'm not awarding anyone towncred, or even stating that they're not paired with one another: I'm simply saying that one or more of the unknowns (either the person the wagon is on, or one of the voters) is statistically likely to be scum.
It also leads to the kinds of constraints I generate being "at least one of these n people is scum" which is equivalent to "not all of this set is town". Your proposed "silver and Raptor aren't partners" constraint is of the form "not all of these X people is scum", for x=2, which is also equivalent to "at least one of these n people is town". Your kind of constraint is probably more useful at this stage in the game, because if we had two overlapping pairs of "not both" constraints, then we could confidently label the fifth one of the set scum. However, I know less about how much we can trust those kinds of constraints, and they worry me because scum know to bus and to create distance, so it's something they're much better able to control and fake. I've yet to see scum effectively evade having to push along town wagons they want to lynch on, though if gkrieg is scum here then he's done a good job of it.
PPE 3: including myself... forgot I had this response partially written but unposted in another tab.
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What do you feel?
Vote Count 3.2
gkrieg13 (1): Skumpy
Not Voting (6): Robz888, SpaceAnemone, EFHW, gkrieg13, silverspawn, Xxraptorslayer96
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 3 ends Friday, August 31th at 5.30 pm FT.
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vote: raptor
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vote: raptor
Sounds good! vote: raptor
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vote: raptor
Bad Vote
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vote: raptor
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Not hammering. We don’t have both ICs on wagon
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Not hammering. We don’t have both ICs on wagon
Hey, we agree!
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Well, agree so far as, he shouldn’t be hammered now. Except I don’t think anyone should hammer him. Gkrieg says because space isnt here. I say because this is going to confirm in space’s mind it’s me/ss/Raptor. Which is not true.
Even though Raptor is scum, this should be saved for another day. If this makes space more confident I’m scum, oh well. But they should really be wondering why I’m the only one feeling this way when if gkrieg and Robz were town, they don’t have this same concern involcing EFHW since she’s set to vote for them. Also for ss to Space, i guess. But hey: 2-1!
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Ok, vote gkrieg
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I'm in a car phone posting on the journey home from my gigs.. sorry if there are typos!
Why are we voting all of a sudden? EFHW, you and I have each other as trusted ICs, which doesn't happen too often, so I really think we should use that before EOD.
I'd really like to see gkrieg convince me he's town because otherwise it's foolish for me not to pay attention to what EFHW is saying here. There's much less chance of him being able to produce an adequate answer when I'm out of the game.
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vote: raptor
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I'm in a car phone posting on the journey home from my gigs.. sorry if there are typos!
Why are we voting all of a sudden? EFHW, you and I have each other as trusted ICs, which doesn't happen too often, so I really think we should use that before EOD.
I'd really like to see gkrieg convince me he's town because otherwise it's foolish for me not to pay attention to what EFHW is saying here. There's much less chance of him being able to produce an adequate answer when I'm out of the game.
What do you mean by "convince me he's town"? I wasn't on either of the mislynch wagons (although I was on the Simon wagon D1), and there is pretty good chances that Skumpy is scum, which I have been saying from the beginning. Also Skumpy being scum would also implicate silver because of the pact, and he is also someone who is likely scum. The team makes sense as Skumpy/ss/?, where the third one is either Robz or Raptor, and either one is equally as likely. The fact that there was no 1v1, points away from Robz, because I think he would have 1v1d either EFHW or Space, because I think he could have won at least against EFHW.
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Thread locked.
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What do you feel?
Vote Count 3.final
gkrieg13 (1): Skumpy
Xxraptorslayer96 (4): EFHW, silverspawn, Robz888, gkrieg13
Not Voting (2): SpaceAnemone, Xxraptorslayer96
With 7 alive, it took 4 to lynch.
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EFHW CHANGED HER VOTE
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Due to the second breaking of the rules, Skumpy is Modkilled. He was Calm, the Vanilla Townie.
The scumteam of Robz888, silverspawn and Xxraptorslayer96 have won.
For the record: EFHW's vote for gkrieg was not the vote, it missed a colon.
Good game everyone. Don't ask me what happened to the hero of the narrative.
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Although folk in speccy proposed to go from there and end the day, I decided to do it my way. Because this was extremely alignment-indicative and it was not the first rule break. Please, no hard feelings: it happens.
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I'd be more mad if I was right. Like I said, there was no way me and gkrieg were going to work together.
GG
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Sorry guys
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That was the derpiest final day I have seen in a long time.
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speccy (https://quicktopic.com/52/H/eCJYsBxM4pQ6i)
Mason QT (https://quicktopic.com/52/H/3kLqUd8wcu3F)
Scum QT (https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/H67ByUwsCLAf5)
silverspawn is MVP for being active and carrying the game all the way being extremely scummy all the way.
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Feel free to share your QTs, some of you have especially cool ones :)
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I fail to see how it was extremely alignment-indicative though. I'd made it clear I didn't want Raptor getting lynched today, and he was confirmed scum by that point.
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Why was the scum team's plan to bus raptor instead of quickhammering gkrieg???
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Why was the scum team's plan to bus raptor instead of quickhammering gkrieg???
Because I check in literally every 5 minutes.
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Why was the scum team's plan to bus raptor instead of quickhammering gkrieg???
Yeah, 3-person quickhammer is hard to pull, when some people are not that active
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LaLight, it's too late now, but shouldn't the night have at least played out?
The lynch happened prior to the rule infraction. This means that at the time of the infraction, there should've been:
6 alive, 2 of whom were scum.
After the mod kill, that's:
5 alive, 2 of whom are scum.
Scum doesn't know if the Vig is 1 shot or not, so they may have chosen to block him and kill the RB - but the RB could've blocked the NK, yes?
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LaLight, it's too late now, but shouldn't the night have at least played out?
The lynch happened prior to the rule infraction. This means that at the time of the infraction, there should've been:
6 alive, 2 of whom were scum.
After the mod kill, that's:
5 alive, 2 of whom are scum.
Scum doesn't know if the Vig is 1 shot or not, so they may have chosen to block him and kill the RB - but the RB could've blocked the NK, yes?
No, Robz is Strongman.
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Also, @Skumpy, I mean this in the nicest possible way, but you really need to rein yourself in. Your erratic play literally cost town the game.
But really every day we didn't lynch silver, we all failed. There was more evidence for him than you usually get. I mean Space's final day analysis was spot on.
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LaLight, it's too late now, but shouldn't the night have at least played out?
The lynch happened prior to the rule infraction. This means that at the time of the infraction, there should've been:
6 alive, 2 of whom were scum.
After the mod kill, that's:
5 alive, 2 of whom are scum.
Scum doesn't know if the Vig is 1 shot or not, so they may have chosen to block him and kill the RB - but the RB could've blocked the NK, yes?
No, Robz is Strongman.
Ah, nevermind then.
However I don't believe scum can claim perfect victory here lol
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Also, @Skumpy, I mean this in the nicest possible way, but you really need to rein yourself in. Your erratic play literally cost town the game.
But really every day we didn't lynch silver, we all failed. There was more evidence for him than you usually get. I mean Space's final day analysis was spot on.
Silver should have been lynched very, very early on.
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I was very convinced that silver was scum. I was incorrectly convinced that Skumpy was also scum.
I quickhammered after seeing that EFHW was going to vote my way because I knew that Raptor had a much higher chance of being scum than I had.
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Also should have seen Robz as scum when he put someone to L-1 without the IC being on the wagon.
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Also, @Skumpy, I mean this in the nicest possible way, but you really need to rein yourself in. Your erratic play literally cost town the game.
But really every day we didn't lynch silver, we all failed. There was more evidence for him than you usually get. I mean Space's final day analysis was spot on.
There was never a world in which gkrieg wasn't going to vote me at some point. Therefore, I had to assume he was scum and go from there. Assuming I didn't, Raptor was still confirmed scum today. There was wagon evidence for both Robz and ss since then the Galz wagon would've been totally town before the end ss flip.
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LaLight, it's too late now, but shouldn't the night have at least played out?
The lynch happened prior to the rule infraction. This means that at the time of the infraction, there should've been:
6 alive, 2 of whom were scum.
After the mod kill, that's:
5 alive, 2 of whom are scum.
Scum doesn't know if the Vig is 1 shot or not, so they may have chosen to block him and kill the RB - but the RB could've blocked the NK, yes?
No, Robz is Strongman.
Ah, nevermind then.
However I don't believe scum can claim perfect victory here lol
I agree. Technically Raptor was lynched before Skumpy was modkilled.
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Also, @Skumpy, I mean this in the nicest possible way, but you really need to rein yourself in. Your erratic play literally cost town the game.
But really every day we didn't lynch silver, we all failed. There was more evidence for him than you usually get. I mean Space's final day analysis was spot on.
There was never a world in which gkrieg wasn't going to vote me at some point. Therefore, I had to assume he was scum and go from there. Assuming I didn't, Raptor was still confirmed scum today. There was wagon evidence for both Robz and ss since then the Galz wagon would've been totally town before the end ss flip.
I actually think I was starting to come around on you. Once Raptor had flipped scum, I probably would've wanted to lynch silver next from Space's wagon case, which was strong, and I sadly didn't read fully until now (sorry Space! Just didn't have the time to reread until today).
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Also, for the record, I can confirm that Raptor absolutely did NOT check in to the forums while VLA.
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Also, @Skumpy, I mean this in the nicest possible way, but you really need to rein yourself in. Your erratic play literally cost town the game.
But really every day we didn't lynch silver, we all failed. There was more evidence for him than you usually get. I mean Space's final day analysis was spot on.
There was never a world in which gkrieg wasn't going to vote me at some point. Therefore, I had to assume he was scum and go from there. Assuming I didn't, Raptor was still confirmed scum today. There was wagon evidence for both Robz and ss since then the Galz wagon would've been totally town before the end ss flip.
I actually think I was starting to come around on you. Once Raptor had flipped scum, I probably would've wanted to lynch silver next from Space's wagon case, which was strong, and I sadly didn't read fully until now (sorry Space! Just didn't have the time to reread until today).
It'd be nice to believe it, but we all know it's difficult to change opinions when you get to the endgame. And it turns out both IC's were wrong too anyways.
Yeah, that was pretty much a complete garbage game by me.
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Also should have seen Robz as scum when he put someone to L-1 without the IC being on the wagon.
The Robz vote on me end of D1 was also pretty damning. Town!Robz is not afraid of scum!Galz, and definitely sees more value in a potential town!Galz being in the game. This is especially true when there is next to no case on me. Scum!Robz on the other hand, would definitely prefer town!Galz out early. The quick switch and then disappearing act to get the wagon going was pretty convincingly a scum move - but really only if you're familiar enough with our histories and meta's.
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Also, @Skumpy, I mean this in the nicest possible way, but you really need to rein yourself in. Your erratic play literally cost town the game.
But really every day we didn't lynch silver, we all failed. There was more evidence for him than you usually get. I mean Space's final day analysis was spot on.
There was never a world in which gkrieg wasn't going to vote me at some point. Therefore, I had to assume he was scum and go from there. Assuming I didn't, Raptor was still confirmed scum today. There was wagon evidence for both Robz and ss since then the Galz wagon would've been totally town before the end ss flip.
IMO this is bad strategic thinking. Your job as VT is to convince other towns you are town and draw the Nigjt Kill.
Therefore you should be trying to convince gkrieg not to vote you, not being fatalstic and assuming he will never change his vote.
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IMO this is bad strategic thinking. Your job as VT is to convince other towns you are town and draw the Nigjt Kill.
Sure. Except there weren't any more VT kills that were going to happen.
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Hey guests are viewing this thread. Means this forum being public at least has a couple people curious.
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silverspawn is MVP for being active and carrying the game all the way being extremely scummy all the way.
Hey, thanks!
@skumpy: I'm not sure if LaLight pointed this out, but I assume the vote from EFHW didn't count because it didn't have a colon. I take it that you thought that you were preventing a big mod error (and I did too, didn't notice the colon until I double checked)
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LaLight, it's too late now, but shouldn't the night have at least played out?
The lynch happened prior to the rule infraction. This means that at the time of the infraction, there should've been:
6 alive, 2 of whom were scum.
After the mod kill, that's:
5 alive, 2 of whom are scum.
Scum doesn't know if the Vig is 1 shot or not, so they may have chosen to block him and kill the RB - but the RB could've blocked the NK, yes?
No, Robz is Strongman.
Ah, nevermind then.
However I don't believe scum can claim perfect victory here lol
I agree. Technically Raptor was lynched before Skumpy was modkilled.
I also agree, but the modkill happened before the flip was posted, so you can legitimately argue that raptor wasn't dead yet
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silverspawn is MVP for being active and carrying the game all the way being extremely scummy all the way.
Hey, thanks!
@skumpy: I'm not sure if LaLight pointed this out, but I assume the vote from EFHW didn't count because it didn't have a colon. I take it that you thought that you were preventing a big mod error (and I did too, didn't notice the colon until I double checked)
Been confirmed. Well played, despite everybody except me's confidence you were scum. You were basically my next-up suspect the entire game, until D3 got underway.
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Hey guests are viewing this thread. Means this forum being public at least has a couple people curious.
Mafia Game Threads indicates there's currently 45 of 'em.
Also, while I'm here and still slightly emotional and since you're probably not going to say it:
Somebody go sign up for gkrieg's game. The guy's waited a damn year to get it started.
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LaLight, it's too late now, but shouldn't the night have at least played out?
The lynch happened prior to the rule infraction. This means that at the time of the infraction, there should've been:
6 alive, 2 of whom were scum.
After the mod kill, that's:
5 alive, 2 of whom are scum.
Scum doesn't know if the Vig is 1 shot or not, so they may have chosen to block him and kill the RB - but the RB could've blocked the NK, yes?
No, Robz is Strongman.
Ah, nevermind then.
However I don't believe scum can claim perfect victory here lol
I agree. Technically Raptor was lynched before Skumpy was modkilled.
I also agree, but the modkill happened before the flip was posted, so you can legitimately argue that raptor wasn't dead yet
Hmmmmm, so if the last mafia is lynched and the mod locks the thread and one of the townies posts, is it a modkill and a win for mafia? Obviously this doesn't matter at all, but your thought got me thinking.
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Here's my QT. (https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/eSyrvY5JiTK)
not that I know this better than anyone else, but my honest guess is that the first two cases on me all stuff I do as town and I just happened to be scum this time. I mean, I've had wagons in the majority of games where I was town lately, too. Space' point about the wagon on the other hand was definitely something that would not have happened if I had been town, since we specifically made a point not to bus.
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Whoa! What happened? What did Skumpy do that was so bad? Just a caps post, or am I missing something bigger because I was phone-reading?
Weirdly, I had a dream a couple of nights ago that we (f.ds mafia people at large) were all in a castle somewhere decorating it for some unknown person's wedding, and then I was following people surreptitiously to try and work out who the scum were. It turns out Mcmc was behind the entire plot all along, and he was all the scums. I wonder whether that was my gut telling me to be more suspicious of Robz, but I wasn't about to follow my gut when I had logic :-P
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Hmmmmm, so if the last mafia is lynched and the mod locks the thread and one of the townies posts, is it a modkill and a win for mafia? Obviously this doesn't matter at all, but your thought got me thinking.
Maybe that would get people to stop doing that!
But again I agree with you, my point was just that you could make an argument.
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Whoa! What happened? What did Skumpy do that was so bad? Just a caps post, or am I missing something bigger because I was phone-reading?
Posting after the thread was locked.
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IMO this is bad strategic thinking. Your job as VT is to convince other towns you are town and draw the Nigjt Kill.
Sure. Except there weren't any more VT kills that were going to happen.
Right, so at the point that you know you won't be killed anymore, your focus can shift toward 100% proving your towniness to people who doubt you and think you are scum. If someone suspects you, even if you think they are scum, that is the person whose arguments you should be engaging most and showing more than anything that they are wrong.
IMO LyLo should be town's last chance for thought reflection and analysis of the whole game. Every town should be going into it ready to reconsider everything, throw their old reads out the window, and solve the game as much as possible. It is absolutely the last place you should ever give into the temptation to throw out an OMGUS vote or be fatalistic about what someone else might do.
It's also just flat out not fair to gkrieg to constantly be saying all game "you'll never change your mind about me." I would hate having someone say something like that to me, and it would totally become a self fulfilling prophecy as my annoyance against them would just make my scumread stronger.
Anyway, again, I mean this as advice, and in all kindness. Your playstyle and approach to the game (an emotional one) reminds a lot of how I played four years ago when I started playing here. But getting emotionally invested in one of these games has the potential to burn you out really fast as well as make you play worse. You don't want to go the way of Yuma, so just bear that in mind going forward.
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In other news, thanks for the game Lalight! This is the first ever time that I died N1, and definitely the first time where I had good reads and was killed for them. Usually I'm the one with bad reads who survives and loses the game on behalf of all the people who had good reads and died.
So, a very satisfying first for me, despite the loss.
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Yes, LL, thank you! I really enjoyed that game: it had a very satisfying level of PoE and technical bits as well as reads :-)
I'm stoked to find that all three of the deductions I posted back at #593 were totally accurate, even the EFHW-vs-Raptor one I was a little less sure on. Even with super-lurky scum, town-on-town wagons don't look like they got to more than three votes.
I also think that the "two truths out of three" thing Skumpy was trying to force was flawed for exactly the reasons I was trying to say it was, but am not sure I really conveyed: silver and Raptor put in a really good little piece of distancing performance there that Skumpy fell for, because silver was able to see what sort of reaction is actions would likely generate, whereas with the D1 votes I was working with, there was far, far less chance for the scumteam to understand how that might end up influencing the game in future days after the intervening flips.
I do think it's really interesting to look at vote-by-vote states across a game, and I think the reason people aren't so ready to believe me when I assert stuff based on them is just that they're not used to seeing them. Would anyone be interested in me posting the complete coloured-in history for this game? Of course, the downside of this is that I'm going to be less able to trust scum D1 votes in the future if people start getting wise to it, but it's still a hard thing for scum to work with, and also I like the idea of keeping the game fresh and interesting for me too :-)
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As for how the game was going to turn out, I think scum may well have won even if Skumpy hadn't been modkilled. We were lynching Raptor, then I think scum had to kill me because they didn't know I only had one single shot, though if their RB takes precedence over EFHW, then they could conceivably have RBd me safely and killed elsewhere, depending on where their RB was (I haven't read the scum QT stuff yet)... I'm still thinking this through, having got home from my evening's rehearsals a short while ago.
Anyway, I think I'd have died in the night. EFHW may have taken my silver case into account... I think he was so obviously conf!scum at the end. I was starting to worry about gkrieg over Skumpy precisely because I was concerned about his alleged town tell on me, which evidently must have been true, or just a very good one-off read on his part. Either way the D4 lynch would have been sliced, D5 ends up with gkrieg, Skumpy and one of the scums.
@silver, I really have to disagree with you when you said that Skumpy was obv!town in your QT. Maybe he appeared that way to scum, but to me he was coming up with some pretty ridiculous reasons to try to undermine my reasoning, while keeping up a lot of active patter with you, and focusing with some intensity on his disagreement with gkrieg to the point where he was unwilling to look at actual evidence. His ATE-style stuff was a little more townie, but the way you and he engaged made him look that much more scummy in my eyes, especially after he seemed to be doing your work for you in distancing from Raptor. Those are my excuses, anyway!! :-P
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speccy (https://quicktopic.com/52/H/eCJYsBxM4pQ6i)
Mason QT (https://quicktopic.com/52/H/3kLqUd8wcu3F)
Scum QT (https://quicktopic.com/52/H/6C9PknyHCfNX)
silverspawn is MVP for being active and carrying the game all the way being extremely scummy all the way.
Scum qt link goes to mod QT
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Oh, and as for excuses: @Simon, very sorry I shot you in error!
FWIW, I was very confident that one of you and silver had to be scum, and the fact you were on the other wagon with Robz and Skumpy meant it was better to shoot you than silver, because that gave us better PoE. I also had to shoot someone in order to IC myself, and I was going to be outed and perma-RBd as soon as we did a mass-claim anyway, so I took the shot..
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speccy (https://quicktopic.com/52/H/eCJYsBxM4pQ6i)
Mason QT (https://quicktopic.com/52/H/3kLqUd8wcu3F)
Scum QT (https://quicktopic.com/52/H/6C9PknyHCfNX)
silverspawn is MVP for being active and carrying the game all the way being extremely scummy all the way.
Scum qt link goes to mod QT
https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/H67ByUwsCLAf5 (https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/H67ByUwsCLAf5) -- real scum QT is here (from silver's personal QT).
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Scum QT (https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/H67ByUwsCLAf5) PPE: nvm
@silver, I really have to disagree with you when you said that Skumpy was obv!town in your QT. Maybe he appeared that way to scum, but to me he was coming up with some pretty ridiculous reasons to try to undermine my reasoning, while keeping up a lot of active patter with you, and focusing with some intensity on his disagreement with gkrieg to the point where he was unwilling to look at actual evidence. His ATE-style stuff was a little more townie, but the way you and he engaged made him look that much more scummy in my eyes, especially after he seemed to be doing your work for you in distancing from Raptor. Those are my excuses, anyway!! :-P
Interesting opinion. Not buying it :P
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Let me be clear that at this point in time, no matter what it sounds like, I truly bear absolutely no ill will towards anybody. Not Iguana, not gkrieg, not Lalight. Nobody, except maybe myself. And actually maybe towards LaLight for not sticking with probably the most terrifying flavor this site has ever seen. Without further ado:
IMO this is bad strategic thinking. Your job as VT is to convince other towns you are town and draw the Nigjt Kill.
Sure. Except there weren't any more VT kills that were going to happen.
Right, so at the point that you know you won't be killed anymore, your focus can shift toward 100% proving your towniness to people who doubt you and think you are scum. If someone suspects you, even if you think they are scum, that is the person whose arguments you should be engaging most and showing more than anything that they are wrong.
IMO LyLo should be town's last chance for thought reflection and analysis of the whole game. Every town should be going into it ready to reconsider everything, throw their old reads out the window, and solve the game as much as possible. It is absolutely the last place you should ever give into the temptation to throw out an OMGUS vote or be fatalistic about what someone else might do.
It's not 100%, because I also need to find scum and my 1 teammate since I don't get to rely on IC's forever. If it's town's job to convince everybody who thinks they're scum that they're town, then shouldn't gkrieg have been making cases for himself against my vote? The fact that he didn't suggests one and only one thing to me: he wasn't bothering because he was almost as equally sure I was scum. The only argument I currently see him making on D3 is a question to Robz asking why he's so sure I'm town. And even if I convince him, that doesn't mean I'm not going to vote him. I went back and forth on who I thought town was between 3 of the 4 unknowns. Guess who I didn't consider.
Mafia can be explained in 3 words: Hindsight is 20/20. When you know the scumteam, it's obvious who it is. But for gkrieg, when I'm posting in my way and avoiding the D2 lynch, that is admittedly pretty damning evidence. Again: it's not a bad case, I get it. But it's easy for gkrieg to say "I was starting to come around to you" after the game. Even if it's true (and again, it's a post that implies I still would never become townier than Robz), there's one post I remember reading from M100 that I didn't believe at the time, and now I do (can't remember the who/where); when you have opinions heading into the end, it's incredibly tough to change them. This probably applies to gkrieg this game. It for sure applies to me this game. My guess N2 for the team was (in order of scum): gkrieg/silver/probRobz. During claiming, that then became gkrieg/Robz/probSilver. And by the time claiming was over, it became gkrieg/Robz/probRaptor. Notice the constant? Yes, it's awful. But the absolute most stupid way to look in this game is to correctly accuse a scum all game long...and then change your mind at the last second. And as bad as it sounds, there's something in preferring to lose by sticking to your guns than to risk a win by switching because that latter loss feels so much worse than the former loss. Expected value, in a nutshell. Not all losses are created equal. Which reminds me, Iguana, I believe you have some unfinished business involving your sig.
It's also just flat out not fair to gkrieg to constantly be saying all game "you'll never change your mind about me." I would hate having someone say something like that to me, and it would totally become a self fulfilling prophecy as my annoyance against them would just make my scumread stronger.
I spent several days and posts trying to convince him since I never actually scumread him until N2. He didn't give me anything to respond to except arguments based on tone (which is probably easy eventually with me. But not yet) and an argument on D1 stuff where I never get things right. And the best way to convince someone is to make good reads and play well, which is what I tried to do. Emphasis on 'tried'. My big readthrough at the end of D2, I even gave him town status for tunneling me. When D3 arrives and there's only 1 mystery town left, what're the odds it's the guy who's been going for me all game long? I realized it was perfect camouflage for someone to go after me the entire time because it's me and my posting style, and nobody would ever suspect them because it's always rational for someone to suspect me early on and irrational for scum to stick to someone all game long and make only one other vote that was completely based on my beliefs. Until N2, I'm not sure the possibility that gkrieg was scum crossed anybody's minds, speccy included. That makes me suspicious. It wasn't a pure OMGUS move, it had a 75% chance of being right all other things forgotten. Is that high enough that it's an excuse for me at least not reading back? No. But it's high enough that coupled with other factors and theorizing, I felt pretty good placing it there early before claiming was finished. Lesson learned.
Anyway, again, I mean this as advice, and in all kindness. Your playstyle and approach to the game (an emotional one) reminds a lot of how I played four years ago when I started playing here. But getting emotionally invested in one of these games has the potential to burn you out really fast as well as make you play worse. You don't want to go the way of Yuma, so just bear that in mind going forward.
Understood, appreciated, and duly noted. There's a reason 1 game at a time is my absolute limit. I don't make decisions based on emotion nearly as much as you might think, even though I do play with more emotion than probably anybody (though I'm improving! M105 was about as low as one can go for me). I don't think I've ever made a vote on tone; I do it based on actions, and most importantly, POE lategame. If wagons are Space's calling card, then I'm hoping POE can be mine once I stop forcing it.
And I've looked at the most recent posts of Yuma before; that's a tale with a history I'm well versed in. There's a nonzero probability something could happen to enrage me away from mafia permanently, but it wouldn't be the cause for me to hate any one of you or leave this community altogether.
In other news, thanks for the game Lalight!
^
PPE all of Space and silver (this took a while)
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I also think that the "two truths out of three" thing Skumpy was trying to force was flawed for exactly the reasons I was trying to say it was, but am not sure I really conveyed: silver and Raptor put in a really good little piece of distancing performance there that Skumpy fell for, because silver was able to see what sort of reaction is actions would likely generate, whereas with the D1 votes I was working with, there was far, far less chance for the scumteam to understand how that might end up influencing the game in future days after the intervening flips.
I do think it's really interesting to look at vote-by-vote states across a game, and I think the reason people aren't so ready to believe me when I assert stuff based on them is just that they're not used to seeing them. Would anyone be interested in me posting the complete coloured-in history for this game? Of course, the downside of this is that I'm going to be less able to trust scum D1 votes in the future if people start getting wise to it, but it's still a hard thing for scum to work with, and also I like the idea of keeping the game fresh and interesting for me too :-)
The two truths and a lie was always correct no matter what! I just didn't know which of the 3.
A big reason for me voting gkrieg was there was scum who voted me D2. If it wasn't gkrieg and it was Raptor, I had to clear him from being on a team with any 2 of {Space, EFHW, silver, Robz}. Also Simon, because I couldn't find a good reason to eliminate Simon/Robz/Raptor, but that ended up being a moot point D3. Space was easy to clear because of the gkrieg read. EFHW was easy to clear since Raptor doesn't place the vote on EFHW over ss unless they're all teamed (whadya know?). But you'll notice when you read back I had to hedge the elimination with silver by consoling myself with Swan's read. I really wanted to get gkrieg, so I had to brush it under the table for good. If there was any 1 piece I wasn't confident on, it was that, and it was something I was making sure to allow myself time to reconsider D3 in case I somehow found Robz townier than Silver.
Wagon stuff helps of course, but there's times when it can lead you astray, as you yourself alluded to in your last sentence. It might become the norm for all 3 scum to gang up on somebody D1. But it was a very good case on silver, and it's one I never dismissed. I just had dirt on all 4 of the people left, something had to give.
But yes, I'd love to see it.
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It's not 100%, because I also need to find scum and my 1 teammate since I don't get to rely on IC's forever. If it's town's job to convince everybody who thinks they're scum that they're town, then shouldn't gkrieg have been making cases for himself against my vote? The fact that he didn't suggests one and only one thing to me: he wasn't bothering because he was almost as equally sure I was scum. The only argument I currently see him making on D3 is a question to Robz asking why he's so sure I'm town. And even if I convince him, that doesn't mean I'm not going to vote him. I went back and forth on who I thought town was between 3 of the 4 unknowns. Guess who I didn't consider.
Here's the thing though. Once EFHW voted for Raptor, and Robz and silverspawn both voted for him, and then gkrieg refused to vote him and you also refused to vote him, Raptor was 100% confirmed scum. Space and EFHW were both confirmed ICs. So there was a confirmed town vote on Raptor, and all non-IC players refused to take the quickhammer on Raptor at LyLo. At this point, you have confirmed scum. It does matter that you have a 95% scum read on gkrieg, because you can shelve that for another day and take the hammer on 100% confirmed scum.
If you had done that, the game would still be going, but you had your gkrieg blinders on so heavy that you didn't see confirmed scum right in front of your face.
To be fair, I agree that until Lylo you tried really hard to convince gkrieg you were town and got nowhere. And that would be really frustrating. That's why it is so important to play rationally and not emotionally at LyLo and constantly be evaluating the changing game state. Anyway, it's really no big deal. I just wanted to clarify what exactly you did (other than break the rules and get mod-killed) that I believe you can probably learn from for the next game.
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It's not 100%, because I also need to find scum and my 1 teammate since I don't get to rely on IC's forever.
Huh. I was trying hard to persuade you all that having two ICs in so few players was a great opportunity to solve it all, meaning you would have had us to rely on to map things out, and then just an algorithm to execute.
What I had asked for was for people to talk more and not vote, because I was trying to get a good case together on gkrieg being town. I was doing that because I was letting other players' doubts lead me to re-examine my position, and I was half-expecting that he wouldn't be able to follow through and show me that he was telling the truth about a town-tell, which would have turned me over to your position.
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As for how the game was going to turn out, I think scum may well have won even if Skumpy hadn't been modkilled. We were lynching Raptor, then I think scum had to kill me because they didn't know I only had one single shot, though if their RB takes precedence over EFHW, then they could conceivably have RBd me safely and killed elsewhere, depending on where their RB was (I haven't read the scum QT stuff yet)... I'm still thinking this through, having got home from my evening's rehearsals a short while ago.
Anyway, I think I'd have died in the night. EFHW may have taken my silver case into account... I think he was so obviously conf!scum at the end. I was starting to worry about gkrieg over Skumpy precisely because I was concerned about his alleged town tell on me, which evidently must have been true, or just a very good one-off read on his part. Either way the D4 lynch would have been sliced, D5 ends up with gkrieg, Skumpy and one of the scums.
@silver, I really have to disagree with you when you said that Skumpy was obv!town in your QT. Maybe he appeared that way to scum, but to me he was coming up with some pretty ridiculous reasons to try to undermine my reasoning, while keeping up a lot of active patter with you, and focusing with some intensity on his disagreement with gkrieg to the point where he was unwilling to look at actual evidence. His ATE-style stuff was a little more townie, but the way you and he engaged made him look that much more scummy in my eyes, especially after he seemed to be doing your work for you in distancing from Raptor. Those are my excuses, anyway!! :-P
I'd care about the modkill if it would have changed the outcome. It wouldn't have.
You having 1-shot was very likely, unfortunately. And in any event, scum just roleblocks you and strongmans vs EFHW, and it's no issue.
I never tried to undermine your wagon reasoning Space. I tried to curb it because I have seen wagons go exactly the way you don't think they're supposed to go. I acknowledged it was likely Robz was scum because of the D1 wagon. I never rejected your silver case as bad, I definitely did absorb it. I just always had bigger fish I wanted to fry. And as I said, Raptor's absence tampers with this stuff a lot if he's scum. You could argue you had just as good a shot with him as with Simon if you wanted POE by wagons.
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It's not 100%, because I also need to find scum and my 1 teammate since I don't get to rely on IC's forever. If it's town's job to convince everybody who thinks they're scum that they're town, then shouldn't gkrieg have been making cases for himself against my vote? The fact that he didn't suggests one and only one thing to me: he wasn't bothering because he was almost as equally sure I was scum. The only argument I currently see him making on D3 is a question to Robz asking why he's so sure I'm town. And even if I convince him, that doesn't mean I'm not going to vote him. I went back and forth on who I thought town was between 3 of the 4 unknowns. Guess who I didn't consider.
Here's the thing though. Once EFHW voted for Raptor, and Robz and silverspawn both voted for him, and then gkrieg refused to vote him and you also refused to vote him, Raptor was 100% confirmed scum. Space and EFHW were both confirmed ICs. So there was a confirmed town vote on Raptor, and all non-IC players refused to take the quickhammer on Raptor at LyLo. At this point, you have confirmed scum. It does matter that you have a 95% scum read on gkrieg, because you can shelve that for another day and take the hammer on 100% confirmed scum.
If you had done that, the game would still be going, but you had your gkrieg blinders on so heavy that you didn't see confirmed scum right in front of your face.
To be fair, I agree that until Lylo you tried really hard to convince gkrieg you were town and got nowhere. And that would be really frustrating. That's why it is so important to play rationally and not emotionally at LyLo and constantly be evaluating the changing game state. Anyway, it's really no big deal. I just wanted to clarify what exactly you did (other than break the rules and get mod-killed) that I believe you can probably learn from for the next game.
I did know Raptor was scum after the non-hammers! I even acknowledged he was confirmed scum. What I said was that scum was going to kill EFHW in the night. That leaves me, ss, Robz, and gkrieg at the time. I thought ss was the town of those 3. Space had said they thought it was gkrieg and Robz as the town. Therefore, the game ends D4 when I thought Space would misvote. If I'm right, which I wasn't, letting Raptor get lynched wins the battle. Not the war. Shelving doesn't do anything, I have to make the hard decision eventually. Preferably with IC's around.
It's not 100%, because I also need to find scum and my 1 teammate since I don't get to rely on IC's forever.
Huh. I was trying hard to persuade you all that having two ICs in so few players was a great opportunity to solve it all, meaning you would have had us to rely on to map things out, and then just an algorithm to execute.
What I had asked for was for people to talk more and not vote, because I was trying to get a good case together on gkrieg being town. I was doing that because I was letting other players' doubts lead me to re-examine my position, and I was half-expecting that he wouldn't be able to follow through and show me that he was telling the truth about a town-tell, which would have turned me over to your position.
But I have more information than you because I know I'm not scum. And if it gets to final 3, then do you want me to sheep the dead ICs or try to think for myself. Again, emphasis on try, since as said before, it's tough to change your mind.
But while my vote was bad and premature, you do realize it was literally everybody except Raptor and us who voted Raptor? I'm for a slow day, I wasn't ever asking for a quicklynch on gkrieg.
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I'm defending a lot of my actions, some of which like wanting to keep Raptor alive after he was confirmed scum I stand by and feel good about.
So I will say this once and for all: I sucked. Good game and well played scum, I'm pretty sure nobody ever figured out the full team.
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I don't agree with Skumpy's approach of not lynching people you believe to be scum because other people might suspect you more. You really don't know how they will react to catching scum, you can't control what they believe, and what would it take to convince you they townread you enough to go ahead and lynch the known scum?
I did miss Space's plea for more time, sorry about that. I'm disappointed gkrieg didn't step up and defend himself, show himself to be town. His posts on the last day "confirmed" my suspicions he was scum, which I said. His refusal to vote raptor cinched the deal for me.
Silver did a great job. I scumread him early on, but fell for his act re: Simon. I will be more careful in the future!
We really should have focused more on Robz. He was scum to me once he started the Galz wagon. If we had put more pressure on him, he would have handled it fine, though, and there was no evidence. When he claimed VT, that was very telling because the claim order shouldn't have mattered at all to a VT. When gkrieg said he was surprised no one fakeclaimed, I literally read that as a scumpartner defending Robz.
This the second game recently where a conversation between two people read to me like scumpartners working together to pursue some agenda and it turned out only one of the players was scum. Need to look out for that
in the future as well.
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Thanks for the game, LL. Agree with Skumpy that the direction the flavor was heading was disturbing.
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Thanks for the game, LL. Agree with Skumpy that the direction the flavor was heading was disturbing.
I am sorry if that disturbed you. I tried to motivate town play better with a help of the flavor, for them to feel they really are responsible for the main character and I was interested how this will turn out.
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Thanks for the game, LL. Agree with Skumpy that the direction the flavor was heading was disturbing.
I am sorry if that disturbed you. I tried to motivate town play better with a help of the flavor, for them to feel they really are responsible for the main character and I was interested how this will turn out.
Not complaining
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I don't usually care very much for flavor but I think the flavor here was pretty cool.
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I don't usually care very much for flavor but I think the flavor here was pretty cool.
Thanks!
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I never tried to undermine your wagon reasoning Space. I tried to curb it because I have seen wagons go exactly the way you don't think they're supposed to go.
Yeah, to be fair, the wagon arguments certainly worked particularly well here because Robz said we shouldn't bus, and if he hadn't, they might have been less on point. But nonetheless, an argument that's so clear-cut alignment indicative is rare.
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I never tried to undermine your wagon reasoning Space. I tried to curb it because I have seen wagons go exactly the way you don't think they're supposed to go.
Yeah, to be fair, the wagon arguments certainly worked particularly well here because Robz said we shouldn't bus, and if he hadn't, they might have been less on point. But nonetheless, an argument that's so clear-cut alignment indicative is rare.
Why do you think they would have been less on point? Do you think scum voting for scum dissuades townies from also voting on those scums?
Note that the "at least 1 scum in {X, Y, Z}" types of constraints work just as well if both X and Y are scum, and Y and Z happen to be the only non-conf!town players on X's wagon out of a whole bunch of conf!townies. So the three example wagons below would all suggest the same "at least one scum in {X, Y, Z} constraint:
X (6): Y, Z, G, G, G
Y (6): G, G, Z, G, X
G (6): X, Y, G, Z, G
In the first two, there could be bussing if both X and Y are scum, and the constraint still holds. If Z flips scum, though, there's no PoE this way with the other two, without using additional information. (Though there could easily be extra info out there making one think that if Z is scum then so is Y... it's just a limitation of that particular mode of constraint-generation).
I guess the main effect I can think of would be that more scum-on-scum voting might encourage more town-on-town voting just because people get nervous running big wagons up early on, but if that gave an advantage to scum, I don't see why scum wouldn't use it more. The only ways scum can avoid this kind of PoEing would be to behave in ways that encourages bigger town-on-town wagons to form, without themselves having to join them. Well, that and being more careful about which townies they flip, though there's already wifom in whether scum want to kill on-wagon or off.. just usually they only care about the EoD wagon on the previous night, rather than the full set of wagons across the entire game history.
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Okay, finally have time to get to this. Yay, a win! I feel like I did next to nothing to contribute to it. Good job, silver.
I do think we were going to pull it off, even without the mod kill. Seemed likely gkrieg or skumpy was going down before both me and silver, and EFHW/Space's PRs were no threat.
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Also should have seen Robz as scum when he put someone to L-1 without the IC being on the wagon.
The Robz vote on me end of D1 was also pretty damning. Town!Robz is not afraid of scum!Galz, and definitely sees more value in a potential town!Galz being in the game. This is especially true when there is next to no case on me. Scum!Robz on the other hand, would definitely prefer town!Galz out early. The quick switch and then disappearing act to get the wagon going was pretty convincingly a scum move - but really only if you're familiar enough with our histories and meta's.
What I was trying to do was play off the notion that maybe town!Robz would be feeling less inclined to go to bat for Galz early on, after your recent streak of hammering me and then trying to get me killed as your QT buddy.
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We really should have focused more on Robz. He was scum to me once he started the Galz wagon. If we had put more pressure on him, he would have handled it fine, though, and there was no evidence. When he claimed VT, that was very telling because the claim order shouldn't have mattered at all to a VT. When gkrieg said he was surprised no one fakeclaimed, I literally read that as a scumpartner defending Robz.
I protested the claim order because I thought town!Robz would be indignant about not being assumed to be town at this point.
But yes you should have focused on me more. I've never been so under-scrutinized, and doubt I ever will be again.