Dominion Strategy Forum

Miscellaneous => Forum Games => Mafia Game Threads => Topic started by: LaLight on August 03, 2018, 08:48:04 am

Title: M117: Emotions Mafia (Game over! Scum wins flawlessly.)
Post by: LaLight on August 03, 2018, 08:48:04 am
Welcome to M117: Emotions Mafia

This game will use asher9++ (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=10639.msg353797#msg353797), a setup for 12 players, and is classified as normal. It was designed by ashersky as a semi-open setup.

Players:

1. Robz888
2. Simon Jester
3. Galzria
4. Skumpy
5. DatSwan
6. iguanaiguana
7. SpaceAnemone
8. EFHW
9. gkrieg13
10. Twistedarcher
11. silverspawn
12. Xxraptorslayer96

Tags:


The Rules:

The Golden Rule:
This is a game. Everyone who signs up to play must be considerate of each other, never get personal, and focus on having fun. Once the game starts, having signed up is a commitment: inactivity is just as inconsiderate as rude comments.

The Standard Rules:
1. No communication between players outside of the game thread or shared QTs at any time. This includes passing references, jokes, or cases in other games or threads, whether in context or not.
2. If the game thread is locked, do not post. If you are unsure if something is locked, ask the mod by PM.
3. Direct or verbatim quoting of mod-provided information is strictly forbidden. Paraphrasing is okay.
4. Actions with instructions that do not specify a game state will be resolved in the order they are received.
5. All night actions must be submitted within 24 hours of day ending.
6. Players must post once every 24 hours.
7. Do not edit or delete posts, ever. If you need to clarify or correct something, post again.
8. Invisible text, font size less than 10, and spoiler tags are not allowed.
9. Cryptography is not allowed.
10. The time between a lynch being reached and a flip being provided is called twilight. All players may continue posting during this time, including the lynched player.
11. Dead players may not post in thread or QT, except their Role QT. A lynched player is not "dead" until a flip has been provided.
12. Personal multimedia, such as video or audio recordings, are not allowed in the game thread.

The Voting Rules:
1. Votes should be in this format: Vote: Playername. Unambigiuous nicknames are acceptable, or any string that uniquely identifies a user. Note that the point of voting is, in fact, unambiguity, and attempting to make it unclear to other players (or, of course, mods) which user you are voting for is very ill-advised.
2. Unvotes should be in this format: unvote or Unvote: Playername.
3. Unvotes are not required if changing your vote from one player to another.
4. You may vote: no lynch.
5. Lynches occur when a simple majority (rounded up) of living players is reached. Once reached, a lynch cannot be undone.
6. If a majority lynch is not reached by the Day's deadline, no lynch occurs.

The Rest:
1. Bold, purple 'AA00AA' text is reserved for the mod. Players may not use it.
2. If you have an issue or problem with the game, please PM the Mod. Do not post complaints in the game thread.
3. Mods make mistakes - please point them out gently. If they can be corrected, they will. If irreversible, they will stand as final to be commiserated over after the game.
4. If a mod error disadvantages one faction greatly, the game may be called off.
5. Ask all questions and make all requests directly to the Mod via PM. Questions deemed as "universal" (defined as questions for which the answers should be available to all players) will be requested to be re-posted in the Game Thread and answered there.
6. One prod will be issued after 48 hours without posting in the game thread. Players are subject to replacement or modkill after one prod.
7. All rule violations will be dealt with according to their severity, as determined by the mod.
8. Each player will receive their own QT, regardless of role. Don't quote from it.
9. If the game goes on for 3 days and 3 nights without a lynch or nightkill, town wins.

Deadlines:
1. Days will last seven IRL days.
2. Nights will last two IRL days.
Title: Re: M117 Emotions Mafia (Open for signups!)
Post by: LaLight on August 03, 2018, 08:48:12 am
Setup Information:

This game will use asher9++, a standard normal setup on f.ds.  A link to the setup is provided in the second line of the OP.

Flavor Information:

All flavor, including flavor names, will be a representation of human emotions.

All vanilla townies will have the same flavor name (Calm).
All power roles and non-town will have distinct flavor names.
Flavor names will be indicative of alignment.
Non-town players will be provided with safe claim.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Open for signups!)
Post by: Robz888 on August 03, 2018, 11:00:08 am
/in
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Open for signups!)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 03, 2018, 11:55:06 am
Let's try an /in.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Open for signups!)
Post by: Galzria on August 03, 2018, 12:08:37 pm
/in
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Open for signups!)
Post by: Skumpy on August 03, 2018, 12:48:01 pm
/in
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Open for signups!)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 03, 2018, 01:55:50 pm
Setup link is broken!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Open for signups!)
Post by: LaLight on August 03, 2018, 01:57:58 pm
Setup link is broken!

Fixed it, thank you!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Open for signups!)
Post by: Swowl on August 03, 2018, 02:18:07 pm
/in
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Open for signups!)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 03, 2018, 06:45:30 pm
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm

/in
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Open for signups!)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 04, 2018, 06:19:36 pm
/in :-)
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Open for signups!)
Post by: IDontPlayThisGame on August 04, 2018, 06:49:19 pm
/tag
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Open for signups!)
Post by: EFHW on August 04, 2018, 08:22:39 pm
/in
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Open for signups!)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 04, 2018, 08:38:14 pm
/in I guess.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Open for signups!)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 04, 2018, 09:21:06 pm
/in
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Open for signups!)
Post by: Robz888 on August 04, 2018, 09:30:39 pm
/in

Sweet!!!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (2 spots left!)
Post by: silverspawn on August 05, 2018, 01:41:48 pm
/in
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (1 spot left!)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 05, 2018, 02:56:01 pm
/in
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (1 spot left!)
Post by: Awaclus on August 05, 2018, 03:02:41 pm
/in

EDIT: Oh I guess raptor took the last spot already. Well I can replace if needed.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Full! PMs coming soon!)
Post by: UmbrageOfSnow on August 05, 2018, 04:39:25 pm
/tag

Turns out I'm not dead, but don't feel up to playing again
Can I have the speccy though?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Full! PMs coming soon!)
Post by: LaLight on August 05, 2018, 06:42:54 pm
PMs are going out. N0 starts now and ends when all the players will confirm but not earlier than in 24 hours.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Full! PMs coming soon!)
Post by: LaLight on August 06, 2018, 06:41:51 pm
From your early childhood you suffered from the emotion problems. When you were expected to cry, you laughed maniacally. When you were expecting to smile, you started crying your eyes out. Your parents were really concerned about this, but never tried to show you to doctor as in other things you were perfectly fine. Time went and you were mostly calm. Sometimes you felt something, good or bad with no reason, but you always thought that's just how it was. And only when you favorite cat died and you felt kind of funny about it you realized something wrong so you went to see a therapist. He was amused about you. And then he started to ask about your early childhood...

Day 1 starts now!

Vote Count 1.0


Not Voting (12): Robz888, Simon Jester, Galzria, Skumpy, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, SpaceAnemone, EFHW, gkrieg13, Twistedarcher, silverspawn, Xxraptorslayer96

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Tuesday, August 14th at 7 pm FT. Thread unlocked!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 06, 2018, 06:46:00 pm
Hello
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 06, 2018, 06:54:32 pm
Hello

Hello
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 06, 2018, 07:05:20 pm
Hello

Hello

Hello.

Man, this flavor got real fast. Hope LaLight's OK.
In other news, would anybody like to have a coalition with me? I don't vote you, you don't vote me, unless there's reasonable confidence that the other's scum?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 06, 2018, 07:09:01 pm
Hello

Hello

Hello

Hello
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 06, 2018, 07:14:43 pm
Hello

Hello

Hello.

Man, this flavor got real fast. Hope LaLight's OK.
In other news, would anybody like to have a coalition with me? I don't vote you, you don't vote me, unless there's reasonable confidence that the other's scum?

Are you town? I'll probably do it for D1 at least.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 06, 2018, 07:23:21 pm
Hello

Hello

Hello.

Man, this flavor got real fast. Hope LaLight's OK.
In other news, would anybody like to have a coalition with me? I don't vote you, you don't vote me, unless there's reasonable confidence that the other's scum?

Are you town? I'll probably do it for D1 at least.

'Probably do it for D1 at least' implies you might vote me D1. Which would be a vote without reasonable confidence. I'm looking for a long-term commitment here, Iguanaman!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 06, 2018, 07:45:29 pm
Hey all!

Good to meet you Simon and Twisted
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 06, 2018, 08:12:44 pm
vote: skumpy

That was easy
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 06, 2018, 08:17:08 pm
Hello everyone!

Vote: Datswan for, uhm, welcoming me..
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 06, 2018, 08:41:49 pm
In other news, would anybody like to have a coalition with me? I don't vote you, you don't vote me, unless there's reasonable confidence that the other's scum?

...Isn't that how we start the game with.. everyone?

Vote: Skumpy

Wagons!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 06, 2018, 09:53:01 pm
Skumpster!!!
You wanna befriends?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 06, 2018, 09:57:39 pm
Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Robz888 on August 06, 2018, 10:02:37 pm
vote: skumpy on principle.

First game, simon jester?

Iím about to get on a train from nyc to baltimore, where I am going straight to the airport and boarding a plane about 8 AM forum time. So Iím going to be getting very drunk for the next like 10 hours of travel. AMA, soon!

Will be slightly VLA this week. (In New Orleans.)
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 06, 2018, 11:18:01 pm
Lalight you get me so well!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 06, 2018, 11:58:06 pm
Hello
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Robz888 on August 07, 2018, 12:32:46 am
Hello

Hello TA we mssed you.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 07, 2018, 12:49:58 am
Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

Iguana is his partner.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 07, 2018, 12:55:22 am
Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

Iguana is his partner.

I like how you think.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Robz888 on August 07, 2018, 12:56:24 am
Who is third tho
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Robz888 on August 07, 2018, 12:56:31 am
I am quite drunk
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 07, 2018, 12:58:46 am
Skumpster!!!
You wanna befriends?

If it's an offer that extends through an as-yet-to-to-specified number of days, then yes! Otherwise, I might have to just settle for Iguana and D1. Or anybody else who'd like to make a deal.

vote: skumpy on principle.

Sheesh. I guess I still owe you one. I wanna vote you but I won't; consider it an early gift for Wednesday.

Also, hi TA: I've clicked on your profile a few times.
And hi Simon: I'd give you newbie advice, but I know you've done a pretty good job of showing yourself the ropes.
Hi everyone else.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 07, 2018, 01:23:48 am
Who is third tho

Simon obvs
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Robz888 on August 07, 2018, 01:43:22 am
Who is third tho

Simon obvs

Yes
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Robz888 on August 07, 2018, 01:43:34 am
Vote: Simon
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 07, 2018, 03:24:25 am
hello.

iguana is the only one making sense so far.
Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 07, 2018, 03:24:48 am
Skumpster!!!
You wanna befriends?

If it's an offer that extends through an as-yet-to-to-specified number of days, then yes! Otherwise, I might have to just settle for Iguana and D1. Or anybody else who'd like to make a deal.

vote: skumpy on principle.

Sheesh. I guess I still owe you one. I wanna vote you but I won't; consider it an early gift for Wednesday.

Also, hi TA: I've clicked on your profile a few times.
And hi Simon: I'd give you newbie advice, but I know you've done a pretty good job of showing yourself the ropes.
Hi everyone else.

If you want an arbitrary number I would say... Start of Day 3?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 07, 2018, 03:25:22 am
All iguanas are equal. But some iguanas are more equal than others.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 07, 2018, 03:27:39 am
hi datSwan. You are the guy who gives me scum vibes by default in every game because of your avatar. .

I like vote: Simon. Trying to show non-concerndness early by changing their vote quick. Also votes on the guy who could actually get a wagon for a play that's probably really towny (namely skumpy)
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 07, 2018, 03:28:42 am
hello.

iguana is the only one making sense so far.
Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.

Why? The only reason Town!SS would be worried about the agreement is if Skumpy is Skum.

PPE1
But you just said you are giving him a pass - so, if Skumpy is Skum then they obv will remove you from radar. Soooo, as Town!SS you giving Skumpster a pass is actually the same as agreeing to his gambit. As Skum, it gives you an out to say that you never agreed to it so people can pile him and then you can jump on.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: LaLight on August 07, 2018, 03:28:53 am
What do you feel?

Vote Count 1.1


Skumpy (2): gkrieg13, Simon Jester
Simon Jester (2): Robz888, silverspawn
Not Voting (8): Galzria, Skumpy, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, SpaceAnemone, EFHW, Twistedarcher, Xxraptorslayer96

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Tuesday, August 14th at 7 pm FT.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 07, 2018, 03:29:20 am
hi datSwan. You are the guy who gives me scum vibes by default in every game because of your avatar. .

I like vote: Simon. Trying to show non-concerndness early by changing their vote quick. Also votes on the guy who could actually get a wagon for a play that's probably really towny (namely skumpy)

Toby will be super pleased to know he could be skum.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 07, 2018, 03:29:34 am
Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

Iguana is his partner.

I like how you think.

You really shouldn't. could both of you say how serious your comments were?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 07, 2018, 03:30:11 am
hello.

iguana is the only one making sense so far.
Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.

Why? The only reason Town!SS would be worried about the agreement is if Skumpy is Skum.

PPE1
But you just said you are giving him a pass - so, if Skumpy is Skum then they obv will remove you from radar. Soooo, as Town!SS you giving Skumpster a pass is actually the same as agreeing to his gambit. As Skum, it gives you an out to say that you never agreed to it so people can pile him and then you can jump on.

The PPE was supposed to be at the end of the post.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 07, 2018, 03:30:32 am
hello.

iguana is the only one making sense so far.
Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.

Why? The only reason Town!SS would be worried about the agreement is if Skumpy is Skum.

PPE1
But you just said you are giving him a pass - so, if Skumpy is Skum then they obv will remove you from radar. Soooo, as Town!SS you giving Skumpster a pass is actually the same as agreeing to his gambit. As Skum, it gives you an out to say that you never agreed to it so people can pile him and then you can jump on.

you know what, you're right! I didn't think this far.

Ok, skumpy, how about we don't vote for each other until day 3?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 07, 2018, 04:29:12 am
First game, simon jester?

No. Not even here. (Guess the alt-account and win a vote.)

And hi Simon: I'd give you newbie advice, but I know you've done a pretty good job of showing yourself the ropes.

Huh? How do you know that exactly? Should I be paranoid or something..  :o

I like vote: Simon. Trying to show non-concerndness early by changing their vote quick. Also votes on the guy who could actually get a wagon for a play that's probably really towny (namely skumpy)

Nah. I just jumped in with a RVS-vote without reading the thread and then when I did I rather wanted it to be on the guy that clearly seeking attention. That's gotta be rewarded in some way, I thought. I don't know how such a move is towny, it's null at best and the internal wifoming ended in a slight scumvibe for me. It's cheap towncred to be the one to get the game out of RVS early, easily something scum could do.   

But, heh, instead my own wagon is starting to form. Ah, well, new guy- wagons are as necessary as ever I assume. Hit me, if you must.

Unvote
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 07, 2018, 05:02:15 am
hello.

iguana is the only one making sense so far.
Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.

Why? The only reason Town!SS would be worried about the agreement is if Skumpy is Skum.

PPE1
But you just said you are giving him a pass - so, if Skumpy is Skum then they obv will remove you from radar. Soooo, as Town!SS you giving Skumpster a pass is actually the same as agreeing to his gambit. As Skum, it gives you an out to say that you never agreed to it so people can pile him and then you can jump on.

you know what, you're right! I didn't think this far.

Ok, skumpy, how about we don't vote for each other until day 3?

Uhh...I mean, Swan did raise a good point. And I always distrust those who trust me. But unless Space wants to chime in, then sure: I will not vote you until D3 unless you do something that's really scummy (except you're good enough at this game, so that won't happen) or somebody gets some sort of incriminating result on you N1. 

And hi Simon: I'd give you newbie advice, but I know you've done a pretty good job of showing yourself the ropes.

Huh? How do you know that exactly? Should I be paranoid or something..  :o

Of course you should; it's mafia. But if you must know, the 'Who's Online' tab can be interesting occasionally. But apparently I was way off on your newbie status, so that's that then.

Nah. I just jumped in with a RVS-vote without reading the thread and then when I did I rather wanted it to be on the guy that clearly seeking attention. That's gotta be rewarded in some way, I thought. I don't know how such a move is towny, it's null at best and the internal wifoming ended in a slight scumvibe for me. It's cheap towncred to be the one to get the game out of RVS early, easily something scum could do.   

WIFOM's too much fun, even as town.

Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 07, 2018, 05:59:27 am
Good morning all.

Chiming in now! Though not sure I need to comment on the who-agreed-not-to-vote-whom thing. I'm not joining any pacts, but I'm fine having people make them visibly in the thread where other people can read them and judge.

I'm a bit perturbed that the newbie is apparently not a newbie. Is there some back-story I should be aware of? I haven't been very active at all on the forum for the last month or so..

Vote: silver -- nice to see you again :-)
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 07, 2018, 06:08:12 am
I'm a bit perturbed that the newbie is apparently not a newbie. Is there some back-story I should be aware of? I haven't been very active at all on the forum for the last month or so..

Not really, no. I guess what Skympy is referring to is that I have (apparently) been showing reading old games and yeah, that's true. I know everything about you and you know nothing 'bout me - that's how I like it.

Other than that, no. My old games here are from years ago. The only thing I can remember is being clueless and useless in a RMM and being yelled at from town!Ashersky because of it. Ugh.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 07, 2018, 06:09:21 am
Likewise :)

And I always distrust those who trust me.

This is like anti-OMGUS. We could call it OMGUDS

I don't think it makes sense, though. If you're town, people are supposed to think you are town.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 07, 2018, 06:49:40 am
Who is third tho

Simon obvs

Yes

Simon must be the one we agreed to bus.

Vote: Simon
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 07, 2018, 07:54:47 am
I'm a bit perturbed that the newbie is apparently not a newbie. Is there some back-story I should be aware of? I haven't been very active at all on the forum for the last month or so..

Not really, no. I guess what Skympy is referring to is that I have (apparently) been showing reading old games and yeah, that's true. I know everything about you and you know nothing 'bout me - that's how I like it.

Other than that, no. My old games here are from years ago. The only thing I can remember is being clueless and useless in a RMM and being yelled at from town!Ashersky because of it. Ugh.
Ah, yes, I remember that well.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 07, 2018, 08:02:36 am
I think this pact idea, while innovative, could have a skewing effect on the game. I'm interested to see how it plays out. It reduces the lynch pool for everyone because people in pacts will be harder to lynch. But this being mafia, pacts aren't exactly meaningful. Do these pacts extend to not posting scumreads or not calling one's partner out on something scummy?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 07, 2018, 10:35:36 am
All iguanas are equal. But some iguanas are more equal than others.

Lol. Let's go ahead and get this game over with then so I can sig this.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 07, 2018, 10:44:13 am
Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

Iguana is his partner.

I like how you think.

You really shouldn't. could both of you say how serious your comments were?

4%?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 07, 2018, 10:46:26 am
We are pretty against using alt accounts for mafia here...  let me think about this.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 07, 2018, 10:47:06 am
I think this no voting until D3 nonsense is going too far for the first Day-te. D1 passes are enshrined in f.ds mafia tradition; anything more is just silly.

But now I wish WW was here so he could vote me for overpunctuating.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 07, 2018, 11:05:14 am
We are pretty against using alt accounts for mafia here...  let me think about this.

Oh, wasn't aware. Hockeysemlan was my old one and I'm using a new on f.ds as a whole - the change has nothing to do with me wanting to play again and if I had my old account one left I would have used that. So there. A whopping meta of 3 games in 2015 should be available for the curious.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 07, 2018, 12:40:31 pm
I think this no voting until D3 nonsense is going too far for the first Day-te. D1 passes are enshrined in f.ds mafia tradition; anything more is just silly.

But now I wish WW was here so he could vote me for overpunctuating.

worried about the lynch pool getting too small?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 07, 2018, 01:05:34 pm
First game, simon jester?

No. Not even here. (Guess the alt-account and win a vote.)


Vote: Simon
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 07, 2018, 01:10:44 pm
Likewise :)

And I always distrust those who trust me.

This is like anti-OMGUS. We could call it OMGUDS

I don't think it makes sense, though. If you're town, people are supposed to think you are town.

Scum has to townread somebody correctly if they want credibility, and I feel I'm usually a good candidate.

I think this pact idea, while innovative, could have a skewing effect on the game. I'm interested to see how it plays out. It reduces the lynch pool for everyone because people in pacts will be harder to lynch. But this being mafia, pacts aren't exactly meaningful. Do these pacts extend to not posting scumreads or not calling one's partner out on something scummy?

Allow me to remind you: I asked to make a pact with somebody, and was immediately voted 3 times (as I expected). Even assuming ss sticks to his word, it's not exactly hard to build a wagon against me. For the second part: I don't know! I'll play it by ear, I guess, but I think I'm OK with anything short of voting.

Also: I finally understand your name. That took me way too long to figure out.

I think this no voting until D3 nonsense is going too far for the first Day-te. D1 passes are enshrined in f.ds mafia tradition; anything more is just silly.
You fail every experiment you never try.

Raptor: Are we on the same side this time, or are we doomed to fight yet again?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 07, 2018, 01:23:21 pm
First game, simon jester?

No. Not even here. (Guess the alt-account and win a vote.)


Vote: Simon

See above, please unvote?

Or at least flesh out the reasoning a little..
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 07, 2018, 01:29:15 pm
Simon seems so scummy to me that I'm beginning to think it's not an alignment think but a tone thing.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 07, 2018, 01:32:14 pm
Would be interesting to know your alt. Hydrad comes to mind. Or maybe... hm... Ghacob?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 07, 2018, 01:33:07 pm
Simon seems so scummy to me that I'm beginning to think it's not an alignment think but a tone thing.

Agree with this
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 07, 2018, 01:44:57 pm
Would be interesting to know your alt. Hydrad comes to mind. Or maybe... hm... Ghacob?

It's Hockeysemlan. And "alt-account" is maybe the wrong term since it's no longer active. Sorry about all that, I think absolutely my scummyness is a tone thing, when talking almost only about oneself that tends to happen. Ugh, my bad, even I could see it happening. Will shut up about me now for a while..

To try to speak about something else: I'm a bit surprised that you and others accepted a Skumpy-pact that easily, what good is going to come out of that exactly? Not enough for you to be scummy, but it's still.. odd to me.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 07, 2018, 01:48:09 pm
Would be interesting to know your alt. Hydrad comes to mind. Or maybe... hm... Ghacob?

It's Hockeysemlan. And "alt-account" is maybe the wrong term since it's no longer active. Sorry about all that, I think absolutely my scummyness is a tone thing, when talking almost only about oneself that tends to happen. Ugh, my bad, even I could see it happening. Will shut up about me now for a while..

To try to speak about something else: I'm a bit surprised that you and others accepted a Skumpy-pact that easily, what good is going to come out of that exactly? Not enough for you to be scummy, but it's still.. odd to me.

Dude seems like town for D1 so of course you don't want to vote town. Giving the full D1 pass is only ceding a read that prolly won't change today and grants us all as an advantage something to talk about.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 07, 2018, 01:56:51 pm
Dude seems like town for D1 so of course you don't want to vote town. Giving the full D1 pas is only ceding a read that prolly won't change today and grants us all as an advantage something to talk about.

Sure, but silver took it a bit further then you:

Ok, skumpy, how about we don't vote for each other until day 3?

Which, barring jokes, is just a strange thing to say. I must say that I would have expect a rapid Skumpy- wagon more than people agreeing with him this way. Something is scummy about this but I can't figure out what..
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 07, 2018, 06:10:05 pm
If you can't find a scum motivation for doing something, don't call it scummy. Everyone is different.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 07, 2018, 06:36:45 pm
If you can't find a scum motivation for doing something, don't call it scummy. Everyone is different.

Uh, yeah, sure thing.. and reading closer I realise silver already clarified it's a D1-pass and not much more so mesh.

Very well then, any other news? Anyone not posted yet?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 07, 2018, 06:43:08 pm
Technically, no.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 07, 2018, 06:51:26 pm
What do you feel?

Vote Count 1.1


Skumpy (2): gkrieg13, Simon Jester
Simon Jester (2): Robz888, silverspawn
Not Voting (8): Galzria, Skumpy, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, SpaceAnemone, EFHW, Twistedarcher, Xxraptorslayer96

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Tuesday, August 14th at 7 pm FT.


LaLight, isn't this an extra day?
Not that I'm complaining if you give it to us...

If you can't find a scum motivation for doing something, don't call it scummy. Everyone is different.
Well, the scum motivation would be that it's one less vote he might get. The town motivation would be that it's one less vote he might get.

If you can't find a scum motivation for doing something, don't call it scummy. Everyone is different.

Uh, yeah, sure thing.. and reading closer I realise silver already clarified it's a D1-pass and not much more so mesh.

Pretty sure it's a D2 pass as well  :D (if we're alive for it, of course)
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 07, 2018, 06:53:41 pm
That was a pretty scummy post of mine, wasn't it? Ah well. I'll be back in a few hours, when I can do some more thinking.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 07, 2018, 08:17:25 pm
We are pretty against using alt accounts for mafia here...  let me think about this.

Oh, wasn't aware. Hockeysemlan was my old one and I'm using a new on f.ds as a whole - the change has nothing to do with me wanting to play again and if I had my old account one left I would have used that. So there. A whopping meta of 3 games in 2015 should be available for the curious.

Hey hockey!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 07, 2018, 08:39:59 pm
Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

Iguana is his partner.

I like how you think.

You really shouldn't. could both of you say how serious your comments were?

Who are you to tell me how I should think?

They were more serious than Gkrieg's, not serious enough to warrant a vote.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 07, 2018, 08:44:32 pm
Good morning all.

Chiming in now! Though not sure I need to comment on the who-agreed-not-to-vote-whom thing. I'm not joining any pacts, but I'm fine having people make them visibly in the thread where other people can read them and judge.

I'm a bit perturbed that the newbie is apparently not a newbie. Is there some back-story I should be aware of? I haven't been very active at all on the forum for the last month or so..

Vote: silver -- nice to see you again :-)

I like this vote. Is it nothing more than friendly RVS, or would you defend it if pressed?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 07, 2018, 08:45:19 pm
That was a pretty scummy post of mine, wasn't it? Ah well. I'll be back in a few hours, when I can do some more thinking.

Self!Aware / moderately censoring Skumpy is scum.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 07, 2018, 08:45:55 pm
Datswan is town.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Robz888 on August 07, 2018, 09:09:53 pm
Sorry people, will have more time for this tomorrow
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 07, 2018, 10:51:17 pm
Iím here and caught up, but donít have anything concrete to really add at the moment. Definitely wonít do a pact to not vote for anyone without more information.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 08, 2018, 03:18:33 am
Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

Iguana is his partner.

I like how you think.

You really shouldn't. could both of you say how serious your comments were?

Who are you to tell me how I should think?

"Should" is a macro. It doesn't really map onto anything real. In this case it unpacks into something like "if you actually think that, this seems pretty wrong to me". Not sure it's scummy, though.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: LaLight on August 08, 2018, 04:22:42 am
LaLight, isn't this an extra day?

Soory, it was already 7th at my place. Will be fixed in the next vote count.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: LaLight on August 08, 2018, 04:25:22 am
What do you feel?

Vote Count 1.2


Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
Simon Jester (4): Robz888, silverspawn, iguanaiguana, Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (1): SpaceAnemone
Not Voting (6): Galzria, Skumpy, DatSwan, EFHW, Twistedarcher, Simon Jester

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 08, 2018, 04:57:19 am
That was a pretty scummy post of mine, wasn't it? Ah well. I'll be back in a few hours, when I can do some more thinking.

Self!Aware / moderately censoring Skumpy is scum.

I've done plenty of both of those as both alignments.

Like, here's the thing: I could also see Simon as scum, maybe. But when you talk, you make evidence against yourself, it's a lot easier to slip by without saying much. So then again, I might need to defer that vote to another day.

I've got another vote in mind, probably a bad one, I'll sit on it for a little while longer. I'll let some more conversation come out in the meantime.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 08, 2018, 07:23:57 am
Vote: silver -- nice to see you again :-)

I like this vote. Is it nothing more than friendly RVS, or would you defend it if pressed?

I made it as pure RVS: I'm on holiday visiting my folks just now, so I'm not feeling too "into" the game yet. I've got an afternoon of UK trains to look forward to today (virtually no phone signal, often horribly delayed...), then I'll be back home late tonight and able to pay more attention from tomorrow evening.

I'm now aware that silver is one of the more interactive players, and that some of the pact stuff is a bit weird, but I haven't decided if it means a scumread or not yet.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 08, 2018, 07:44:24 am
I've got another vote in mind, probably a bad one, I'll sit on it for a little while longer. I'll let some more conversation come out in the meantime.

Oh, please spill the beans here, if you may. Everyone seems a little hesitant and we could have good use of something more to talk about me thinks.

It's a towny feeling over all here, but to put my vote somewhere for today I like vote: EFHW the best. A tad lurky so far, no?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 08, 2018, 09:20:18 am
I've been reading and not posting, so technically I have been lurking. Nothing has struck me as alignment indicative. But maybe if I nit-pick a bit something will turn up. Will get back to you soon.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 08, 2018, 09:20:37 am
Datswan is town.

I did want to hear more about this.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 08, 2018, 09:36:50 am
By my count, Skumpy has pacts with iguana (D1), silver (D1 and D2) and DatSwan (D1 and D2). All for real?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 08, 2018, 11:10:30 am
I think so
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 08, 2018, 11:17:46 am
I only have one with ss. If others donít want to vote for me, fine by me.

I see you Simon, but canít at the moment. Iíll get back to this shortly.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 08, 2018, 12:58:05 pm
let's vote: EFHW
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 08, 2018, 01:02:23 pm
let's vote: EFHW
Is it something specific I said or just the general lurkiness?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 08, 2018, 01:12:37 pm
I've been reading and not posting, so technically I have been lurking. Nothing has struck me as alignment indicative. But maybe if I nit-pick a bit something will turn up. Will get back to you soon.

These are my exact thoughts as well, and yet you posting them gives me a slight slight scummy vibe..
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 08, 2018, 01:13:11 pm
I can see this EFHW voting stuff. But I myself will make my first bad vote with a Vote: Galz.

While I asked for the coalition because I actually wanted to try having one, it then occurred to me that it's generating 11 different responses from people who didn't know it was coming. Some are going to ignore it completely (Raptor), some are going to distrust it (gkrieg), some are going to think it's townie (Iguana), some are intrigued (EFHW), some are even going to accept (ss).

11 responses, 3 are scum. Which ones? I don't know! What I do [think I] know is that it's these reactions to weird plays that Galz loves to analyze (more his plays than others' but whatever). The fact that he doesn't seem to care at all gives me pause. Granted, as scum, he probably would try to fake reads. So maybe it is, in fact, a really bad vote. Oh well. It's been like 40 hours, I've got time.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 08, 2018, 01:36:45 pm
let's vote: EFHW
Is it something specific I said or just the general lurkiness?

It's nothing specific, unfortunately.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 08, 2018, 01:37:43 pm
Vote: raptor is where its at for me
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 08, 2018, 01:40:08 pm
I could vote Robz too because of how he tanked his own meta and that makes him a hard read now.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 08, 2018, 01:51:05 pm
Raptor: Are we on the same side this time, or are we doomed to fight yet again?

We didnít fight last time!... but then you were scum and I had a bad read. So forgive me if I have some trust issues Skumpy.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 08, 2018, 01:55:07 pm
I've been reading and not posting, so technically I have been lurking. Nothing has struck me as alignment indicative. But maybe if I nit-pick a bit something will turn up. Will get back to you soon.

These are my exact thoughts as well, and yet you posting them gives me a slight slight scummy vibe..
Hm, that doesn't seem fair, somehow...
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 08, 2018, 01:55:48 pm
My nit picking didn't yield anything, btw
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 08, 2018, 02:04:01 pm
Raptor: Are we on the same side this time, or are we doomed to fight yet again?

We didnít fight last time!... but then you were scum and I had a bad read. So forgive me if I have some trust issues Skumpy.

Opponents=fighting. You were by far the scariest townie that game, since you had my partner figured out instantly, and you were starting to connect the dots by the end. Now I need to know if we can work together for the first time, and so far, I haven't been given a reason to think one way or the other.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 08, 2018, 02:04:46 pm
I've been reading and not posting, so technically I have been lurking. Nothing has struck me as alignment indicative. But maybe if I nit-pick a bit something will turn up. Will get back to you soon.

These are my exact thoughts as well, and yet you posting them gives me a slight slight scummy vibe..
Hm, that doesn't seem fair, somehow...

I know! And yet that's the impression I got.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 08, 2018, 02:19:25 pm
Raptor: Are we on the same side this time, or are we doomed to fight yet again?

We didnít fight last time!... but then you were scum and I had a bad read. So forgive me if I have some trust issues Skumpy.

Opponents=fighting. You were by far the scariest townie that game, since you had my partner figured out instantly, and you were starting to connect the dots by the end. Now I need to know if we can work together for the first time, and so far, I haven't been given a reason to think one way or the other.

Now I feel like youíre just trying to sweeten me up. But sure Iím willing to work with you to catch scum!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 08, 2018, 04:54:47 pm
Raptor: Are we on the same side this time, or are we doomed to fight yet again?

We didnít fight last time!... but then you were scum and I had a bad read. So forgive me if I have some trust issues Skumpy.

Opponents=fighting. You were by far the scariest townie that game, since you had my partner figured out instantly, and you were starting to connect the dots by the end. Now I need to know if we can work together for the first time, and so far, I haven't been given a reason to think one way or the other.

Now I feel like youíre just trying to sweeten me up. But sure Iím willing to work with you to catch scum!

I dont really know you. Can you share your approach to the game / scum hunting?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 08, 2018, 06:29:02 pm
I actually think skumpy is scum here.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 08, 2018, 08:41:16 pm
I actually think skumpy is scum here.

I feel like it's still too early to say, but you seem really sure.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 08, 2018, 11:32:30 pm
I actually think skumpy is scum here.

I feel like it's still too early to say, but you seem really sure.

As sure as you can be with a couple days
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 09, 2018, 01:19:15 am
I actually think skumpy is scum here.

I feel like it's still too early to say, but you seem really sure.

As sure as you can be with a couple days

I've typed out like 10 different responses, and none of them feel right. So I'll just keep it short and sweet: no

Meantime, I'm bored. If you guys generally don't have any controversial opinions or reads to share, then give us something interesting, like a personal anecdote or a joke or something.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 09, 2018, 03:41:15 am
Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

Iguana is his partner.

so.... 8%?
I like how you think.

You really shouldn't. could both of you say how serious your comments were?

Who are you to tell me how I should think?

They were more serious than Gkrieg's, not serious enough to warrant a vote.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 09, 2018, 03:50:20 am
I actually think skumpy is scum here.

I feel like it's still too early to say, but you seem really sure.

As sure as you can be with a couple days

I've typed out like 10 different responses, and none of them feel right. So I'll just keep it short and sweet: no

Meantime, I'm bored. If you guys generally don't have any controversial opinions or reads to share, then give us something interesting, like a personal anecdote or a joke or something.

While I was driving today I passed a sign which read "This Way to the Blindness Center"
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 09, 2018, 03:52:02 am
I actually think skumpy is scum here.

Real question - Why? I have like a tinfoil hat D1 theory, but it is currently being outweighed by the silliness of the approach.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: LaLight on August 09, 2018, 04:42:04 am
What do you feel?

Vote Count 1.3


Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
Simon Jester (2): Robz888, Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (1): SpaceAnemone
EFHW (2): Simon Jester, silverspawn
Galzria (1): Skumpy
Xxraptorslayer96 (1): iguanaiguana
Not Voting (4): Galzria, DatSwan, EFHW, Twistedarcher,

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 09, 2018, 05:20:26 am
I don't see Skumpy as scum here, I really don't. It would be too easy just let this game keep sleeping and Skumpy is trying to do, well, at least something with it. I don't want to scumread active players, not this early anyway. Lynch the lurkers!

Vote: Xxraptor

Could you please elaborate your vote for me a little more now? Is the alt-account-thing still the reason or is there anything more to it? 
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 09, 2018, 02:03:54 pm
C'mon y'all. If this is our Thursday activity level then the weekend is going to be all crickets. People arr leaving each others questions unanswered, that's no way to play
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (1 spot left!)
Post by: Skumpy on August 09, 2018, 02:08:02 pm
C'mon y'all. If this is our Thursday activity level then the weekend is going to be all crickets. People arr leaving each others questions unanswered, that's no way to play

And I don't particularly want to be prodding.

/in

EDIT: Oh I guess raptor took the last spot already. Well I can replace if needed.

Also, Iguana's feeling pretty townie to me.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 09, 2018, 02:17:15 pm
I don't see Skumpy as scum here, I really don't. It would be too easy just let this game keep sleeping and Skumpy is trying to do, well, at least something with it. I don't want to scumread active players, not this early anyway. Lynch the lurkers!

Vote: Xxraptor

Could you please elaborate your vote for me a little more now? Is the alt-account-thing still the reason or is there anything more to it?

I tend to get classified as a lurker D1 every game I play. So not a huge surprise. As for you Vote, yes still because of the alt-acct. but it wasnít a super serious vote.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 09, 2018, 02:23:42 pm
I dont really know you. Can you share your approach to the game / scum hunting?

When playing, I try to look for abnormalities in play style compared to other games. As well as look for people slipping up. Both of which are hard to read/catch D1.

I would like to extend this question to everyone, to help get the ball rolling .
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2018, 03:17:08 pm
Raptor already has like, 10x his normal D1 content. I'm not sure if that's scummy because he's trying harder to avoid the natural suspicion he receives for lurking D1, or if it's a result of his genuine excitement to play another game, which would result in a more prominent Raptor regardless of alignment.

It could very much be the latter, and thus I am generally disinclined to consider a vote on him at this time.

Simon's OMGUS vote on Raptor is scummy though.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2018, 03:19:26 pm
Datswan is town.

I did want to hear more about this.

Nothing to hear. I feel I have a pretty good read on Datswan, and that read points towards him being town.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 09, 2018, 03:22:01 pm
Gkrieg also giving off townie vibes right now.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 09, 2018, 03:23:50 pm
I don't see Skumpy as scum here, I really don't. It would be too easy just let this game keep sleeping and Skumpy is trying to do, well, at least something with it. I don't want to scumread active players, not this early anyway. Lynch the lurkers!

Vote: Xxraptor

Could you please elaborate your vote for me a little more now? Is the alt-account-thing still the reason or is there anything more to it?

Iím surprised to see such a read on skumpy. I donít think heís scum but I also think heís town. Do you think heís town, or do you just not want to lynch him because heís active? Youíre saying both but theyíre very different reasons to not want to lynch him.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 09, 2018, 03:26:06 pm
Galzria is giving me a slighty scum feel. Iguana reads townyish to me. Simon is scummier, And I donít really have reads on any else. No real town reads thus far.

bote: galzria to have my vote somewhere
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 09, 2018, 04:00:27 pm
I don't see Skumpy as scum here, I really don't. It would be too easy just let this game keep sleeping and Skumpy is trying to do, well, at least something with it. I don't want to scumread active players, not this early anyway. Lynch the lurkers!

Vote: Xxraptor

Could you please elaborate your vote for me a little more now? Is the alt-account-thing still the reason or is there anything more to it?

Iím surprised to see such a read on skumpy. I donít think heís scum but I also think heís town. Do you think heís town, or do you just not want to lynch him because heís active? Youíre saying both but theyíre very different reasons to not want to lynch him.

I get a townie feeling out of it after all, yes. It's perhaps not much, but frankly he is the towniest player around as of now. I know that players are busy, but the silence is damning nevertheless and both iguana and skumpy gets more townpoints there of trying to get people to talk. It's of course a read that can change rapidly, but it is still there.

Simon's OMGUS vote on Raptor is scummy though.

It's honestly a LALL- vote more than OMGUS, I haven't read any game with raptor to my knowledge so I wouldn't know if he is usually quiet. His vote on me was semi-RVS so I don't really mind. 

I dont really know you. Can you share your approach to the game / scum hunting?

When playing, I try to look for abnormalities in play style compared to other games. As well as look for people slipping up. Both of which are hard to read/catch D1.

I would like to extend this question to everyone, to help get the ball rolling .

I don't have any developed "system" for scumhunting yet, I agree that it is difficult but talking in general helps a lot naturally. Just feeling out tones and approaches to the game is good enough D1 I guess.

Is there anything about the setup that is worth mentioning by the way?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 09, 2018, 04:36:00 pm
Maybe the team is Galzria/DatSwan/Raptor, lol
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Robz888 on August 09, 2018, 04:58:46 pm
Okay, I'm caught up! Greetings from a beautiful hotel bar in New Orleans.

Simon Jester using an alt account isn't really scummy, per say, it's just sort of frowned upon / against the rules. But I accept his explanation that he didn't know, and sounds like he was more just switching to a new account. And he told us what the other one was, so I think that's all fine. Not really something to vote over, so I'll throw a vote at Raptor for having done so. Vote: Raptor

I think these pacts are pretty dumb, or would be dumb if they were actually obeyed, but I presume they won't be when push comes to shove, so pretty much it's just a distraction. Skumpy is sort of screaming "I'm scum!" so loudly that he's probably not.

What did you mean by this, iguana?

I could vote Robz too because of how he tanked his own meta and that makes him a hard read now.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 09, 2018, 05:21:23 pm
vote: raptor
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 09, 2018, 05:52:34 pm
vote: raptor
Curious about this. What did you think of Galzria's post re: raptor making an effort to participate more?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 09, 2018, 05:53:11 pm
Same to Robz.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 09, 2018, 05:54:15 pm
Galzria is giving me a slighty scum feel. Iguana reads townyish to me. Simon is scummier, And I donít really have reads on any else. No real town reads thus far.

bote: galzria to have my vote somewhere

How is Simon scummier?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 09, 2018, 06:17:57 pm
I know you've done a pretty good job of showing yourself the ropes.

I reread things on the train yesterday, but couldn't post because if lack of signal. Did anyone else wonder whether Skumpy could have scumslipped by having let on that he'd had pre-game communication with Simon in the scum QT? If so, what made you not want to post about it?

I know he said he was using the "who's online" thing, but that's a pretty odd/unusual admission to make, and it seems weird to say exactly this, rather than "I see you're well-versed in our back-catalogue" or something that also acknowledged the source of the "showing the ropes" stuff at the same time.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 09, 2018, 06:22:40 pm
Sorry guys, had a late night getting back home from inlaws last night (curse you California wildfires).  Will try to get to this tommorrow.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Robz888 on August 09, 2018, 06:39:52 pm
vote: raptor
Curious about this. What did you think of Galzria's post re: raptor making an effort to participate more?

I mean, Galz is probably right about that, I just thinking jumping on SJ for the alt-account thing is something scum might do. It's a weak vote for Raptor, though.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 09, 2018, 06:56:04 pm
vote: raptor
Curious about this. What did you think of Galzria's post re: raptor making an effort to participate more?
Nothing. I don't remember having played with raptor before. But someone needs to have pressure, and I have no scumreads yet.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 09, 2018, 07:10:38 pm
Maybe the team is Galzria/DatSwan/Raptor, lol

That would be fun  :D. For those of you that do not know. Gaz, Swan and I work/see each other on a regular basis.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 09, 2018, 07:33:43 pm
I know you've done a pretty good job of showing yourself the ropes.
Did anyone else wonder whether Skumpy could have scumslipped by having let on that he'd had pre-game communication with Simon in the scum QT?

Only scum cares about scumslips and this one is quite farfetched too. Here, take a scumpoint!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 09, 2018, 08:09:24 pm
Reading in full now, responding if my names shows up.

I think these pacts are pretty dumb, or would be dumb if they were actually obeyed, but I presume they won't be when push comes to shove, so pretty much it's just a distraction. Skumpy is sort of screaming "I'm scum!" so loudly that he's probably not.


Pacts are dumb? How else do you suggest we bring salvation back?
And I always act super Skummy, nothing new this game.

I know you've done a pretty good job of showing yourself the ropes.
Did anyone else wonder whether Skumpy could have scumslipped by having let on that he'd had pre-game communication with Simon in the scum QT?

Only scum cares about scumslips and this one is quite farfetched too. Here, take a scumpoint!
Simon said it better than I could. I mean: really, Space? This kind of reminds me of that time where I accused you of mixing up me and other newbies intentionally. Y'know, that time when I was scum?



So Raptor's the focal point. Fun stuff. For those who don't know, this is the complete history of said dinosaur:

M105: His first game (mine too!). Said not much, made weakish cases, eventually got caught in a lie as scum D4.
M110: More lurking. A few posts, a few opinions. Town distrusted him, and vigged him as town early on.
NM11: Played a really loud game. Made interesting reads, was active, was cross-examining people, was challenging suspect plays, was considering everybody as potential scum, and had by far and away the best reads of anybody else, especially D1. Died right when he had figured out the entire scum team.
M116: One I have looked at in retrospect. He went back to lurking, saying little. Lynched D1. Scum, right? No, town again.
M117: A little less lurky than usual. But for the most part, same old, except the one game.

He's probably in, like, the upper half of scummy players this game. But Raptor was so uncharacteristic the one time that I think I agree with Galz and want to give him more time (yes, I am aware where my vote currently sits). Definitely not the worst lynch possible, but this is such a easy early lynch. Scum flip wouldn't shock me, but it doesn't feel like the right way to go right now.

Oh yeah, Simon's feeling pretty townie too. Probably wrong on something I've said so far, but I'll find that out later. Insert typical "I hate D1" post.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 09, 2018, 11:32:34 pm
I know you've done a pretty good job of showing yourself the ropes.
Did anyone else wonder whether Skumpy could have scumslipped by having let on that he'd had pre-game communication with Simon in the scum QT?

Only scum cares about scumslips and this one is quite farfetched too. Here, take a scumpoint!
I don't agree that only scum care about scumslips. But I do agree that this probably isn't one.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 10, 2018, 03:41:32 am
I super duper strongly disagree that only scum cares about scumslips. I think town cares more about scumslips, generally.

This doesn't seem like one to me either, but I wouldn't disount it completely.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: LaLight on August 10, 2018, 04:21:45 am
What do you feel?

Vote Count 1.4


Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
Simon Jester (1): Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (1): SpaceAnemone
Galzria (1): Skumpy
Xxraptorslayer96 (4): iguanaiguana, Simon Jester, Robz888, silverspawn
Not Voting (4): Galzria, DatSwan, EFHW, Twistedarcher

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT.

Note: this
bote: galzria to have my vote somewhere

doesn't count as a vote.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 10, 2018, 04:22:30 am
This doesn't seem like one to me either, but I wouldn't disount it completely.

When people make posts here, it's very natural to be suspicious. Are they being honest, or are they lying scum trying to deceive?

So I will step outside of the game for a second to assure and reassure you that there was no slip, there was no pregame discussion, there was 100% honesty in me having absolutely no life and nothing better to do in my many hours of procrastination than to click the 'Who's Online' tab, and wonder who is this Simon guy who also seems to spend a lot of time here, and in old Mafia games at that. So stop speculating about my haughty diction, and knock it off! Go talk about something else that you find weird and potentially scummy, maybe even the extreme self-awareness of this very post. I don't know!

OK, aggressive rant's over. Happy Friday all!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 10, 2018, 04:57:21 am
I think the more pertinent question is if scum!Space or town!Space is more likely to try and call out that particular non-slip?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 10, 2018, 06:26:49 am
I super duper strongly disagree that only scum cares about scumslips. I think town cares more about scumslips, generally.

This doesn't seem like one to me either, but I wouldn't disount it completely.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 10, 2018, 07:31:06 am
I super duper strongly disagree that only scum cares about scumslips. I think town cares more about scumslips, generally.

This doesn't seem like one to me either, but I wouldn't disount it completely.

Hm. From what I have seen "scumslips" are almost always coming from town and to do such a slip is more of a towntell than anything else.. Scum likes to push scumslips though, as an easy way to fabricate cases that really isn't there.

In this case, I mean... So Skumpy and I would have this conversation in our QT and then for some reason decide to replicate it in thread including my surprised reaction? I mean for Skumpy and me the accusation is quite hilarious, but for everyone else it should just be plain ridiculous. Of course it's not a scumslip and I think Space very well knows this.

In fact, first let's cast my first actually scumsuspecting vote in vote: SpaceA
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: mcmcsalot on August 10, 2018, 09:04:11 am
/tag
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 10, 2018, 10:41:19 am
@Simon

So is your case sorta that Space scumslipped because only scum posts about a scum slip?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 10, 2018, 10:44:51 am
Gkrieg also giving off townie vibes right now.

I can't see any possible basis for this read other than he and you agreeing on a couple small points
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 10, 2018, 10:48:20 am
I dont really know you. Can you share your approach to the game / scum hunting?

When playing, I try to look for abnormalities in play style compared to other games. As well as look for people slipping up. Both of which are hard to read/catch D1.

I would like to extend this question to everyone, to help get the ball rolling .

I've been trying to ask more questions about motivation so that I can get a better read on things I don't understand wihout handing my reads to the scum team for them to do as they please
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 10, 2018, 10:55:58 am
@Simon

So is your case sorta that Space scumslipped because only scum posts about a scum slip?

Yes.

But more like that they made an effort being active and then made a move that I can't help but read as truly scummy. To me it's unlikely town!SA would ever think of Skumpy and mine interaction as a real scum vs scum-thing. One of us can certainly be scum still, but us sharing a QT and then doing that? No, that's silly. 
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 10, 2018, 11:12:48 am
That's a stupid vote. My instinct is to vote you in return but I don't think it actually makes you scummy.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 10, 2018, 11:57:04 am
That's a stupid vote.

...

no u.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 10, 2018, 11:59:35 am
That's a stupid vote.

...

no u.

This.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 10, 2018, 12:00:24 pm
Gkrieg also giving off townie vibes right now.

I can't see any possible basis for this read other than he and you agreeing on a couple small points

So you're saying that you don't find Gkrueg townie?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 10, 2018, 01:38:21 pm
@Simon

So is your case sorta that Space scumslipped because only scum posts about a scum slip?

Yes.

But more like that they made an effort being active and then made a move that I can't help but read as truly scummy. To me it's unlikely town!SA would ever think of Skumpy and mine interaction as a real scum vs scum-thing. One of us can certainly be scum still, but us sharing a QT and then doing that? No, that's silly.

Have you played much with Space? It seems like you are making at least a partially meta based argument.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 10, 2018, 01:43:32 pm
Gkrieg also giving off townie vibes right now.

I can't see any possible basis for this read other than he and you agreeing on a couple small points

So you're saying that you don't find Gkrueg townie?

I don't find him townie, no. I just don't see the content that could be the basis for a townread on him. I mean he called me scum or scummy or something for interacting with Skumpy, which I most certainly am not. What other content does he have?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 10, 2018, 01:45:29 pm
This doesn't seem like one to me either, but I wouldn't disount it completely.

When people make posts here, it's very natural to be suspicious. Are they being honest, or are they lying scum trying to deceive?

So I will step outside of the game for a second to assure and reassure you that there was no slip, there was no pregame discussion, there was 100% honesty in me having absolutely no life and nothing better to do in my many hours of procrastination than to click the 'Who's Online' tab, and wonder who is this Simon guy who also seems to spend a lot of time here, and in old Mafia games at that. So stop speculating about my haughty diction, and knock it off! Go talk about something else that you find weird and potentially scummy, maybe even the extreme self-awareness of this very post. I don't know!

OK, aggressive rant's over. Happy Friday all!

Holy crap, this post is self conscious.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 10, 2018, 01:51:54 pm
Ok, let's see where we are

iguana and skumpy are towny. Everyone else is null.

Not too great. We still have some time but not too much.

Maybe I could go for galz. I don't like the total dismissiveness of the scumslip. What if it actually was a scumslip?

Actually, that possibility sort of negates the towniness of skumpy and puts him closer to null. But I'm not voting for him anyway so it doesn't really matter.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 10, 2018, 01:52:47 pm
ok vote: galz. Who wants to follow??
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 10, 2018, 01:53:56 pm

What did you mean by this, iguana?

I could vote Robz too because of how he tanked his own meta and that makes him a hard read now.

I guess I am thinking that you had some recent scum games that you played as though you didn't care so as to emulate your 'lackluster town' meta.

If you do that again, then you are both a hard read and not as much of a town asset as you could be. Therefore I consider you a priori of anything a decent lynch.

Sorry.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 10, 2018, 01:54:12 pm
ok vote: galz. Who wants to follow??

Not me.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 10, 2018, 01:58:09 pm
@Simon

So is your case sorta that Space scumslipped because only scum posts about a scum slip?

Yes.

But more like that they made an effort being active and then made a move that I can't help but read as truly scummy. To me it's unlikely town!SA would ever think of Skumpy and mine interaction as a real scum vs scum-thing. One of us can certainly be scum still, but us sharing a QT and then doing that? No, that's silly.

Have you played much with Space? It seems like you are making at least a partially meta based argument.

No, not at all, but have read my few games though. I know they are experienced and good and I would have made the argument against everyone at that level. Don't think SA is especially inclined to use scumslips- argument as scum, that was general. 

PPE
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 10, 2018, 02:20:11 pm
I actually think skumpy is scum here.

Real question - Why? I have like a tinfoil hat D1 theory, but it is currently being outweighed by the silliness of the approach.
Did gkrieg answer this and where is DatSwan?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 10, 2018, 02:33:38 pm
Gkrieg also giving off townie vibes right now.

I can't see any possible basis for this read other than he and you agreeing on a couple small points

OMGUS here.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 10, 2018, 02:34:47 pm
Ok, let's see where we are

iguana and skumpy are towny. Everyone else is null.

Not too great. We still have some time but not too much.

Maybe I could go for galz. I don't like the total dismissiveness of the scumslip. What if it actually was a scumslip?

Actually, that possibility sort of negates the towniness of skumpy and puts him closer to null. But I'm not voting for him anyway so it doesn't really matter.

Lol, why are iguana and skumpy townie?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 10, 2018, 02:36:16 pm
Space seems townie.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 10, 2018, 02:37:02 pm
I actually think skumpy is scum here.

Real question - Why? I have like a tinfoil hat D1 theory, but it is currently being outweighed by the silliness of the approach.
Did gkrieg answer this and where is DatSwan?

More than anything it is gut-based.  He feels like he is trying to conform to his meta for some reason.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 10, 2018, 02:50:50 pm
Galzria is giving me a slighty scum feel. Iguana reads townyish to me. Simon is scummier, And I donít really have reads on any else. No real town reads thus far.

bote: galzria to have my vote somewhere

How is Simon scummier?

He seems very self aware and focusing on how people read him was my impression. But I donít know if thatís a scum tell or a personality tell, a lot of people act this way very naturally. You (efhw) have given that impression as well.

Iím a bit surprised that Iíve contributed nothing and Iíve gotten zero suspicion, really no one has even talked about me at all this game. Maybe Iím getting a pass because itís my first game in awhile, but Iíd have expected people to be more suspicious of me.

Iím going to re-read raptor since heís got 4 votes on him right now. Iím having trouble forming opinions on anyone since I feel like thereís been lots of noise and little substance thus far ó every post I read and then throw aside because I get nothing from it on initial read, but itís time for me to dig in more and make an actual opinion. Iím hoping doing a targeted read vs going through the thread will come up with something.

I said galz seemed scummy (vote: galzria to get it on record) but I donít remember why other than an impression off of one post.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 10, 2018, 02:57:52 pm
I actually think skumpy is scum here.

Real question - Why? I have like a tinfoil hat D1 theory, but it is currently being outweighed by the silliness of the approach.
Did gkrieg answer this and where is DatSwan?

More than anything it is gut-based.  He feels like he is trying to conform to his meta for some reason.

The first time I played as scum, my entire game was based around trying to conform to my meta because anything outside of that would be extremely noticeable and would get me lynched. Galz saw through that instantly.

Now, I'm at a point where I can just play how I feel, and don't need to worry about specifically copying certain attributes of my townplay. If you must know, the coalition play was something I was intending to do before seeing my alignment. If I end up as scum again and discover that my scumplay is actually quite transparent, maybe things will change. Right now, I'm doing what feels natural. And as town this game, that's especially easy.

Scum, I hope you've been very entertained by my last few posts, because I'm having a blast writing them.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 10, 2018, 03:06:58 pm
I actually think skumpy is scum here.

Real question - Why? I have like a tinfoil hat D1 theory, but it is currently being outweighed by the silliness of the approach.
Did gkrieg answer this and where is DatSwan?

More than anything it is gut-based.  He feels like he is trying to conform to his meta for some reason.

The first time I played as scum, my entire game was based around trying to conform to my meta because anything outside of that would be extremely noticeable and would get me lynched. Galz saw through that instantly.

Now, I'm at a point where I can just play how I feel, and don't need to worry about specifically copying certain attributes of my townplay. If you must know, the coalition play was something I was intending to do before seeing my alignment. If I end up as scum again and discover that my scumplay is actually quite transparent, maybe things will change. Right now, I'm doing what feels natural. And as town this game, that's especially easy.

Scum, I hope you've been very entertained by my last few posts, because I'm having a blast writing them.

Even this post seems premeditated to me.  Like you are trying to have this attitude, but that it is fake.  (sorry if you are actually town and this is actually you, this is just my opinion on the tone as it relates to the game).
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 10, 2018, 03:15:50 pm
I actually think skumpy is scum here.

Real question - Why? I have like a tinfoil hat D1 theory, but it is currently being outweighed by the silliness of the approach.
Did gkrieg answer this and where is DatSwan?

More than anything it is gut-based.  He feels like he is trying to conform to his meta for some reason.

The first time I played as scum, my entire game was based around trying to conform to my meta because anything outside of that would be extremely noticeable and would get me lynched. Galz saw through that instantly.

Now, I'm at a point where I can just play how I feel, and don't need to worry about specifically copying certain attributes of my townplay. If you must know, the coalition play was something I was intending to do before seeing my alignment. If I end up as scum again and discover that my scumplay is actually quite transparent, maybe things will change. Right now, I'm doing what feels natural. And as town this game, that's especially easy.

Scum, I hope you've been very entertained by my last few posts, because I'm having a blast writing them.

Even this post seems premeditated to me.  Like you are trying to have this attitude, but that it is fake.  (sorry if you are actually town and this is actually you, this is just my opinion on the tone as it relates to the game).

It's not. I have no other premeditated schemes or evil genius plays up my sleeve at the moment. I might admit to being scum and start a game with a self-vote, but that's the only one. Perhaps I'll come up with some more before next time, who knows? Meantime, I'll accept your apology in advance.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 10, 2018, 03:24:57 pm
You know what, it's time to shut about me. I've done way too good a job of taking attention off scum.

Let's ramble about the Galz wagon, which I am indeed currently on.
He has given me nothing to think he's town. My reasons for voting, however, like all D1 reasons, are weak at best. And probably wrong. Additionally, I'm honestly not sure if it's a good vote, going strictly by expected value. I know from experience he's a good town player who can figure the lies out. It would be a shame to lose that D1. Additionally, it would be a shame to throw suspicion on the townies who cause a lynch and save scum from having to use a nightkill on him. But if he's scum, then that's a huge asset, not only by getting rid of a good player, but by putting scum in an uncomfortable position of whether or not they want to bus this.

Which is more important to do in this game, I'm too new to say. So I guess I'm going to side with inertia and wait and see what happens.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 10, 2018, 03:28:58 pm
Ok, let's see where we are

iguana and skumpy are towny. Everyone else is null.

Not too great. We still have some time but not too much.

Maybe I could go for galz. I don't like the total dismissiveness of the scumslip. What if it actually was a scumslip?

Actually, that possibility sort of negates the towniness of skumpy and puts him closer to null. But I'm not voting for him anyway so it doesn't really matter.

Lol, why are iguana and skumpy townie?

iguana was the only one who made sense on the skumpy deal. All of his posts feel natural and on point

skumpy is no longer towny since they just admitted to have planed the deal thing before the game started. Now slightly scummy for the scumslip.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 10, 2018, 03:43:28 pm
vote: Space I expected a more thorough response to the day from them.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 10, 2018, 04:03:24 pm
vote: Space I expected a more thorough response to the day from them.

Feeling blind, what response are you referring to?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 10, 2018, 04:10:31 pm
vote: Space I expected a more thorough response to the day from them.

Feeling blind, what response are you referring to?
I mean they were busy and then didn't have access, so there was a lot to catch up on. I would have expected them, once they were able to post, to do a more thorough job responding to the day instead of just the one scumslip post.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 10, 2018, 04:19:58 pm
vote: Space I expected a more thorough response to the day from them.

Feeling blind, what response are you referring to?
I mean they were busy and then didn't have access, so there was a lot to catch up on. I would have expected them, once they were able to post, to do a more thorough job responding to the day instead of just the one scumslip post.

Eh, this seems SUPER weak to me.  People are busy and don't catch up all at once.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 10, 2018, 04:23:11 pm
vote: Space I expected a more thorough response to the day from them.

Feeling blind, what response are you referring to?
I mean they were busy and then didn't have access, so there was a lot to catch up on. I would have expected them, once they were able to post, to do a more thorough job responding to the day instead of just the one scumslip post.

Eh, this seems SUPER weak to me.  People are busy and don't catch up all at once.
It's not much. But it's different from their usual style, I think.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 10, 2018, 06:37:02 pm
Gkrieg also giving off townie vibes right now.

I can't see any possible basis for this read other than he and you agreeing on a couple small points

OMGUS here.

You're absolutely right, in a way. But the implication that the OMGUS is scummy or unreasonable is wrong. I am not emotionally involved in the read.

That being said, you antagonizing me and scumreading the things I do and making short standoffish comments is making me scum read you because I can't remember you ever acting this way toward me before.

I actually don't believe that town!gkrieg would be scumreading me for what I have said/done, so it is giving me pause and making me feel null to scum on you.

I also know that last game you were disappointed to roll scum so that would make your lack of engagement here scummy.

I need to think about whether any of this is worth a vote
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 10, 2018, 06:43:10 pm
Note: had not seen some of gkrieg's recent posts when I posted above. Will reconsider.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 10, 2018, 06:44:48 pm
Gkrieg also giving off townie vibes right now.

I can't see any possible basis for this read other than he and you agreeing on a couple small points

OMGUS here.

You're absolutely right, in a way. But the implication that the OMGUS is scummy or unreasonable is wrong. I am not emotionally involved in the read.

That being said, you antagonizing me and scumreading the things I do and making short standoffish comments is making me scum read you because I can't remember you ever acting this way toward me before.

I actually don't believe that town!gkrieg would be scumreading me for what I have said/done, so it is giving me pause and making me feel null to scum on you.

I also know that last game you were disappointed to roll scum so that would make your lack of engagement here scummy.

I need to think about whether any of this is worth a vote

I was disappointed to roll scum, but I don't have lack of engagement here.  I'm pretty engaged.

Why don't you think that town!gkrieg would be scumreading you?  For the record, I don't actually think you are all that scummy.  The OMGUS was a little scummy (more of a joke from my part), and the first comment that you were skumpy's partner was (to me) obviously a joke.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 10, 2018, 06:47:26 pm
Okay, cancel literally everything I said about gkrieg. I was wrong.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 10, 2018, 06:48:08 pm
Galzria is a crappy lynch.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 10, 2018, 07:07:46 pm
Prod dodging until this evening. I had work stuff come up the last few days. I need to do a catchup and then Iíll get some thoughts down.

Itís not raptor - stop being lazy.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Robz888 on August 10, 2018, 07:45:53 pm
Iím a bit surprised that Iíve contributed nothing and Iíve gotten zero suspicion, really no one has even talked about me at all this game. Maybe Iím getting a pass because itís my first game in awhile, but Iíd have expected people to be more suspicious of me.

Happy to oblige. Vote: TA
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 10, 2018, 07:50:25 pm
Galzria is giving me a slighty scum feel. Iguana reads townyish to me. Simon is scummier, And I donít really have reads on any else. No real town reads thus far.

bote: galzria to have my vote somewhere

How is Simon scummier?

He seems very self aware and focusing on how people read him was my impression. But I donít know if thatís a scum tell or a personality tell, a lot of people act this way very naturally. You (efhw) have given that impression as well.

Iím a bit surprised that Iíve contributed nothing and Iíve gotten zero suspicion, really no one has even talked about me at all this game. Maybe Iím getting a pass because itís my first game in awhile, but Iíd have expected people to be more suspicious of me.

Iím going to re-read raptor since heís got 4 votes on him right now. Iím having trouble forming opinions on anyone since I feel like thereís been lots of noise and little substance thus far ó every post I read and then throw aside because I get nothing from it on initial read, but itís time for me to dig in more and make an actual opinion. Iím hoping doing a targeted read vs going through the thread will come up with something.

I said galz seemed scummy (vote: galzria to get it on record) but I donít remember why other than an impression off of one post.

I don't like your Galz vote, but I could vote EFHW I think.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 10, 2018, 07:51:50 pm
Iím a bit surprised that Iíve contributed nothing and Iíve gotten zero suspicion, really no one has even talked about me at all this game. Maybe Iím getting a pass because itís my first game in awhile, but Iíd have expected people to be more suspicious of me.

Happy to oblige. Vote: TA

what's scummy about that post?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 11, 2018, 12:22:24 am
Realized I will not be around for D1 end. VLA tomorrow afternoon- till Tuesday afternoon sometime. I will have zero service during this time.

I donít really have an opinion on the whole scum slip fiasco. No real reads yet. I kinda want to vote Skumpy but I think thatís just because itís Skumpy. If nothing major happens in the next 20 hours Iíll just place my vote with whoever has the most at the time, to help get a lynch off. But for now Unvote
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 11, 2018, 03:34:43 am
ok iguana, so why is galz not a good lynch?

Who is better?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: LaLight on August 11, 2018, 05:12:42 am
What do you feel?

Vote Count 1.5


Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): SpaceAnemone
Galzria (3): Skumpy, silverspawn, Twistedarcher
Xxraptorslayer96 (1): iguanaiguana
SpaceAnemone (2): Simon Jester, EFHW
Twistedarcher (1): Robz888
Not Voting (3): Galzria, DatSwan, Xxraptorslayer96

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT.

Note: I will be VLA till Monday morning.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 11, 2018, 11:41:51 am
Note: had not seen some of gkrieg's recent posts when I posted above. Will reconsider.

Wheat changed your mind?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 11, 2018, 11:46:06 am
Note: had not seen some of gkrieg's recent posts when I posted above. Will reconsider.

Wheat changed your mind?

I made a mistake and read through page 7, thinking I had read everything. What I saw that you had already posted on page 8 of the thread before I criticized you changed my mind about you. If you hadn't have posted it yet, I might have thought you were just trying to pander to me, but that wasn't the case because you did it before I bothered you about it. So actually I have a sorta townread on you at least for right now.

My bigger problem is a current lack of strong scumreads.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 11, 2018, 11:52:37 am
ok iguana, so why is galz not a good lynch?

Who is better?

Galz is one of those people whose alignment often resolves itself. He's like a really good D3 lynch, but not a great D1 lynch.

I guess I like lynching EFHW > Space >  Robz right now? D1 is always hard these days because it's not like I would take pleasure in eliminating any of these people from the game but someone has to be scum. I don't much like the Simon or Raptor lynches anymore because of the responses to their wagons. But I could review that more.

I also think you have not proven yourself town very much, you have just proven yourself to be mostly my thought-ally, which is not something I can trust unfortunately.

Vote: EFHW
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 11, 2018, 12:29:55 pm
ok. vote: EFHW is as good as any.

I can't remember any game in which she was lynched early. Let's see what some day1 pressure does.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Robz888 on August 11, 2018, 01:26:12 pm
Still VLA, will have more time tomorrow.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 11, 2018, 01:29:45 pm
vote: Space I expected a more thorough response to the day from them.

Because I'm such a stellar D1 player usually?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 11, 2018, 01:34:08 pm
I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 11, 2018, 02:20:55 pm

vote: Space I expected a more thorough response to the day from them.

Because I'm such a stellar D1 player usually?
Because you tend to be more thorough. So far you've only made a single farfetched scumslip suggestion.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 11, 2018, 02:22:05 pm
I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Except not, because I'm town!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 11, 2018, 03:55:57 pm
I'm okay with this wagon. vote: EFHW
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 11, 2018, 04:13:52 pm
I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Except not, because I'm town!

Didnt you research whether saying 'I'm town' comes more fromtown or scum and found it gad more to do with the player than their alignment?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 11, 2018, 05:52:34 pm
vote: Silver.

I'm at work for the next 6 hour,  but I'll try to find time later tonight to put together my reasons.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 11, 2018, 05:53:48 pm
I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Except not, because I'm town!

Didnt you research whether saying 'I'm town' comes more fromtown or scum and found it gad more to do with the player than their alignment?

Sounds like a Space thing to do. Did EFHW do so?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 11, 2018, 05:55:09 pm
I tried to find where I originally read the statement but didn't find it.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 11, 2018, 06:01:52 pm
EFHW wagon. Eh. Probably the lynch if Raptor shows up. Still feel impartial about it, though 4 consecutive votes concerns me.

Meanwhile:
1) Iguana's posts
2) My pact with ss

is forcing me to do a Vote: TA at this present moment.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 11, 2018, 06:03:13 pm
@Skumpy What do my posts have to do with your voting TA?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 11, 2018, 06:22:07 pm
@Skumpy What do my posts have to do with your voting TA?

I enjoy saying cryptic remarks, and explaining later.


Here's where I'm at right now.

I find Iguana very townie at this point. I haven't played with him much before, but he's active, and that counts for something. More than something. And furthermore, I like his posts, and I like the way he's playing. There's a lot he has going for him.

Now there's 2 possibilities.

1. I'm way, way wrong, and Iguana is in fact scum. I don't believe it now. But if it's true, this game will not go very smoothly.

2. I'm right, and Iguana is town. Iguana has posted so much at this point that people surely have to be townreading the lizard, right? No! Because by my count, only 3 have. And when you're scum, you want to be posting correct townreads D1 to gain credibility, and preferably on the most townie people. If Iguana is town, 3 other people here know this. I have to think that one is going to take notice of his talkative play and give him town status, or at least townie. Which doesn't leave many possibilities.

Both of those things together, it's seems to me highly likely there's a scum in {Iguana, ss, TA, Skumpy}. There's already an 86% chance of that, but whatever. And of that group, there's one I can't vote for, there's one I won't vote for, and there's one I'd be happy to vote for but would rather stick around longer because I pity it. So therefore, TA it is.

So that's me. Wrong? Possibly. Logical? I'd like to think so.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 11, 2018, 06:27:08 pm
Huh, that's an interesting post, Skumpy.

Vote: silverspawn
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 11, 2018, 06:33:58 pm
Huh, that's an interesting post, Skumpy.

Vote: silverspawn

That works too. Even though I feel a little better about my vote, regardless of pact status, it would narrow down the options in my mind.

To be clear, this is not something I can vote for in good faith, even if the hammer is required from me. If you happen to find this extremely aggravating, I gave you all ample opportunity.  :-\
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 11, 2018, 07:13:00 pm
3 votes SS, 3 votes EFHW? Correct me if Iím wrong.

Vote: EFHW

With skumpy not voting SS it maybe hard to get lunch off, or they are both scum and playing us. I also wasnít huge on how EFHW responded to the wagon. Good luck fellow scum hunters
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 11, 2018, 07:15:57 pm
Vote: EFHW is probably still better than silver. I want to hear Galz's thing though
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 11, 2018, 08:37:57 pm
I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Except not, because I'm town!

Didnt you research whether saying 'I'm town' comes more fromtown or scum and found it gad more to do with the player than their alignment?
Yes, that was me. But I AM town, so I said it.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 11, 2018, 08:46:35 pm
The scummy thing is my lurking earlier. Townwise, I no longer lurk and there is no scum narrative for me. I actually think Space is a good choice. Their contributions have been minimal. The scumslip thing looks scummier now that that's the only thing they have done.

I would consider TA on the grounds of self-consciousness, imitating the person voting before him and my own OMGUS. Would vote silver out of self-preservation, but am pretty null on him.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 11, 2018, 08:51:01 pm
I'm on phone so multi-quoting is hard.  This post by TA echoes silver's a few earlier. Weak, I know. I'd rather vote Space.

Quote from: Twistedarcher
link=topic=18873.msg764346#msg764346 date=1534008848
I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 11, 2018, 08:51:40 pm
I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.

Sigh
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 11, 2018, 08:52:56 pm
I tried to find where I originally read the statement but didn't find it.
Maybe in a qt?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 11, 2018, 08:56:29 pm
I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Except not, because I'm town!

Didnt you research whether saying 'I'm town' comes more fromtown or scum and found it gad more to do with the player than their alignment?
Yes, that was me. But I AM town, so I said it.

I've seen your scum play amdI remember it  being calm, collected and full of remarkably towny statements. Am I wrong?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 11, 2018, 09:04:46 pm
So I have been absent, that's mb, work has been crazy. Here is where I am at. I am so damn tired right now I cannot bring myself to do a read. But I have time when I wake up and I will respond accordingly. Please allow me the day, I may literally pass out at this key board if I try here.

Skum

EFHW
Simon
Twisted
II

SS
Null
Space
GK
Robz

Skumpy
Raptor
Galz

Chum

Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 11, 2018, 09:07:36 pm
Lol your chum list is almost all just your IRL chums, how seriously are we expected to take that?

Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 11, 2018, 09:36:52 pm
Lol your chum list is almost all just your IRL chums, how seriously are we expected to take that?

Donít care
Also i donít know skimpy irl
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 11, 2018, 10:11:14 pm
I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Except not, because I'm town!

Didnt you research whether saying 'I'm town' comes more fromtown or scum and found it gad more to do with the player than their alignment?
Yes, that was me. But I AM town, so I said it.

I've seen your scum play amdI remember it  being calm, collected and full of remarkably towny statements. Am I wrong?
Alas, you are right.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 11, 2018, 10:22:06 pm
Can someone that finds Raptor explain to me why they think they are skum. Itís a lazy question Iíll go back and call you out if forced.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 11, 2018, 10:24:17 pm
I mean he isn't a lynch candidate anymore. where's your evidence that he is town?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 11, 2018, 10:25:26 pm
I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Except not, because I'm town!

Didnt you research whether saying 'I'm town' comes more fromtown or scum and found it gad more to do with the player than their alignment?
Yes, that was me. But I AM town, so I said it.

I've seen your scum play amdI remember it  being calm, collected and full of remarkably towny statements. Am I wrong?
Alas, you are right.

So on what basis should anyone not want your lynch then?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 11, 2018, 10:30:32 pm
@DatSwan, how do you reconcile that two of your top scumreads, me and TA, started a wagon on your top scumread, EFHW?

If either of us were scum with EFHW, what's the motivation there?

Also, I believe you have the opportinity to put your top scum read to L-1.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 11, 2018, 11:29:55 pm
@DatSwan, how do you reconcile that two of your top scumreads, me and TA, started a wagon on your top scumread, EFHW?

If either of us were scum with EFHW, what's the motivation there?

Also, I believe you have the opportinity to put your top scum read to L-1.

... bussing for credit or something else as elementary as that?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 12, 2018, 12:00:25 am
@DatSwan, how do you reconcile that two of your top scumreads, me and TA, started a wagon on your top scumread, EFHW?

If either of us were scum with EFHW, what's the motivation there?

Also, I believe you have the opportinity to put your top scum read to L-1.

... bussing for credit or something else as elementary as that?

No offense, but you sound to me like you are getting your reads from a random number generator and your scum narratives from a magic 8 ball.....

Why would randomly switching to a scum partner out of nowhere be a good move when we are just a weekend away from the deadline?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 12, 2018, 12:17:28 am
@DatSwan, how do you reconcile that two of your top scumreads, me and TA, started a wagon on your top scumread, EFHW?

If either of us were scum with EFHW, what's the motivation there?

Also, I believe you have the opportinity to put your top scum read to L-1.

... bussing for credit or something else as elementary as that?

No offense, but you sound to me like you are getting your reads from a random number generator and your scum narratives from a magic 8 ball.....

Why would randomly switching to a scum partner out of nowhere be a good move when we are just a weekend away from the deadline?

Because it is day 1 and i openly admit to not being able to have substantial reads day one and it is just guess work.
Why are you pretending people should be sonsure on day 1?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 12, 2018, 02:02:55 am
I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Except not, because I'm town!

Didnt you research whether saying 'I'm town' comes more fromtown or scum and found it gad more to do with the player than their alignment?
Yes, that was me. But I AM town, so I said it.

I've seen your scum play amdI remember it  being calm, collected and full of remarkably towny statements. Am I wrong?
Alas, you are right.

So on what basis should anyone not want your lynch then?
So you'll policy lynch me for being hard to read? You made a similar argument about Robz earlier, with the difference that his new meta makes him participate less.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 12, 2018, 02:55:49 am
I mean he isn't a lynch candidate anymore. where's your evidence that he is town?

not to be rude... but I asked first. I'll even give you my reasons - but I expect yours in return.
XXR is town to me Day 1 because he will either slip up or get lyched for being less than active as the game continues. To lynch him D1 here seems dumb on general principal unless there is a hard skum read on them. So I am looking for a hard skum read from someone. Without that, they are essentially removed from my D1 pool.
*I am also aware of the Hippocratic nature of this post as they have probably contributed more than I in this game. It is more based on generalization*

Also, since we are on the topic II - what is your reads list prior to the end of D1?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 12, 2018, 02:57:32 am
@DatSwan, how do you reconcile that two of your top scumreads, me and TA, started a wagon on your top scumread, EFHW?

If either of us were scum with EFHW, what's the motivation there?

Also, I believe you have the opportinity to put your top scum read to L-1.

... bussing for credit or something else as elementary as that?

No offense, but you sound to me like you are getting your reads from a random number generator and your scum narratives from a magic 8 ball.....

Why would randomly switching to a scum partner out of nowhere be a good move when we are just a weekend away from the deadline?

The mere fact that you would suggest such a thing is ridiculous is somewhat incriminating. You are a very experienced player. I, as should everyone, leave pretty much everything on the table for you. Take it as a compliment.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 12, 2018, 03:04:20 am
Vote: EFHW is probably still better than silver. I want to hear Galz's thing though

No wall needed. In concise terms, why is EFHW better than SS from your POV?
Also - Galz, who is your top SR right now?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 12, 2018, 03:08:37 am
@Skumpy What do my posts have to do with your voting TA?

I enjoy saying cryptic remarks, and explaining later.


Here's where I'm at right now.

I find Iguana very townie at this point. I haven't played with him much before, but he's active, and that counts for something. More than something. And furthermore, I like his posts, and I like the way he's playing. There's a lot he has going for him.

Now there's 2 possibilities.

1. I'm way, way wrong, and Iguana is in fact scum. I don't believe it now. But if it's true, this game will not go very smoothly.

2. I'm right, and Iguana is town. Iguana has posted so much at this point that people surely have to be townreading the lizard, right? No! Because by my count, only 3 have. And when you're scum, you want to be posting correct townreads D1 to gain credibility, and preferably on the most townie people. If Iguana is town, 3 other people here know this. I have to think that one is going to take notice of his talkative play and give him town status, or at least townie. Which doesn't leave many possibilities.

Both of those things together, it's seems to me highly likely there's a scum in {Iguana, ss, TA, Skumpy}. There's already an 86% chance of that, but whatever. And of that group, there's one I can't vote for, there's one I won't vote for, and there's one I'd be happy to vote for but would rather stick around longer because I pity it. So therefore, TA it is.

So that's me. Wrong? Possibly. Logical? I'd like to think so.

No. The sentence

Quote
And when you're scum, you want to be posting correct townreads D1 to gain credibility,

is just false insofar as it relates to me. White knighting is such an overrated scum trait that it gets you in far more trouble than it ever does good as scum, which is why I wouldn't do it. I've talked about this particular point before, even (you were probably there, iguana, don't you remember that?). It is not a thing you would catch scum!me with.

It is a sort of a legit point if applied to newer scum players. Maybe.

But even then, I mean, I was the first one who said iguana was towny. How does this even make him a towny player? Other people challenged me on the townread. Doubling down there as I did is exactly the kind of thing I would by trying my hardest to avoid as scum, because whiteknighting. How would I even know that skumpy would find him towny aswell?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 12, 2018, 03:09:28 am
Also unvote I don't like the EFHW wagon. It has basically no justification and picked up too quickly.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 12, 2018, 03:11:24 am
The people who jumped on it are where I would look for scum now. Ironically, that's iguana. But then he changed. The others are raptor and simon.

vote: simon
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 12, 2018, 03:47:49 am
@Skumpy What do my posts have to do with your voting TA?

I enjoy saying cryptic remarks, and explaining later.


Here's where I'm at right now.

I find Iguana very townie at this point. I haven't played with him much before, but he's active, and that counts for something. More than something. And furthermore, I like his posts, and I like the way he's playing. There's a lot he has going for him.

Now there's 2 possibilities.

1. I'm way, way wrong, and Iguana is in fact scum. I don't believe it now. But if it's true, this game will not go very smoothly.

2. I'm right, and Iguana is town. Iguana has posted so much at this point that people surely have to be townreading the lizard, right? No! Because by my count, only 3 have. And when you're scum, you want to be posting correct townreads D1 to gain credibility, and preferably on the most townie people. If Iguana is town, 3 other people here know this. I have to think that one is going to take notice of his talkative play and give him town status, or at least townie. Which doesn't leave many possibilities.

Both of those things together, it's seems to me highly likely there's a scum in {Iguana, ss, TA, Skumpy}. There's already an 86% chance of that, but whatever. And of that group, there's one I can't vote for, there's one I won't vote for, and there's one I'd be happy to vote for but would rather stick around longer because I pity it. So therefore, TA it is.

So that's me. Wrong? Possibly. Logical? I'd like to think so.

No. The sentence

Quote
And when you're scum, you want to be posting correct townreads D1 to gain credibility,

is just false insofar as it relates to me. White knighting is such an overrated scum trait that it gets you in far more trouble than it ever does good as scum, which is why I wouldn't do it. I've talked about this particular point before, even (you were probably there, iguana, don't you remember that?). It is not a thing you would catch scum!me with.

It is a sort of a legit point if applied to newer scum players. Maybe.

But even then, I mean, I was the first one who said iguana was towny. How does this even make him a towny player? Other people challenged me on the townread. Doubling down there as I did is exactly the kind of thing I would by trying my hardest to avoid as scum, because whiteknighting. How would I even know that skumpy would find him towny aswell?

Not sure if 'white knighting' means just townreading or guaranteeing as town. Because I'm only talking about the former, I don't care about 'doubling down'. The only 3 I listed, which included myself, were the ones who would said something as simple as 'maybe townie-ish'. Nothing more than that required, and nothing more than that was found.

Going back to white knighitng; I don't understand. You are expected to at least throw your hat into the ring D1 and give a name of somebody you find townie that you are still allowed to change. I believe everybody has said at least 1 person by now, without reading back. Scum either puts the townread on a scum or a town. Not all scum are going to townread each other. So a town is being townread, and if it's not somebody who they find likely to be a common townread (someone I believe should be Iguana), then who? Who do you, as scum!ss, like to townread on D1? And if Iguana isn't town, you will notice I included him in the list. But since I do currently believe him to be town, that's not where my vote is going.


And you know what? Assume everything I said makes no sense, and is not relevant whatsoever, and your points are completely right, even though I don't fully understand. You were the one who once said to me:

Reversed stupidity is not intelligence. If a psychopath says the sky is blue that doesn't make the sky green. If <A> gives a nonsensical reason why <B> is scum, that doesn't make him town.

Nothing you've said is exactly a ringing endorsement for TA. And:
The people who jumped on it are where I would look for scum now. Ironically, that's iguana. But then he changed. The others are raptor and simon.
is untrue because TA was also in that group.

For the record, I don't have an opinion on the moment of EFHW's alignment, nor on the alignments of the people who jumped on the wagon regardless of her faction. Tomorrow is another day.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 12, 2018, 05:09:26 am
Not sure if 'white knighting' means just townreading or guaranteeing as town. Because I'm only talking about the former, I don't care about 'doubling down'.

Strong townreading. I was talking about that. I was also mostly addressing ii. If you're just talking about stating a townread, sure, every scum will state townnreads on towns. But then that's not an argument anyway. I took you as saying that I was scummy because I focused on defending ii in particular, who is a common townread.

And you know what? Assume everything I said makes no sense, and is not relevant whatsoever, and your points are completely right, even though I don't fully understand. You were the one who once said to me [...]:

Right. I'm not claiming that the flawed-ness of your argument makes me town. I'm claiming there's no positive evidence against me expressed so far.

The people who jumped on it are where I would look for scum now. Ironically, that's iguana. But then he changed. The others are raptor and simon.
is untrue because TA was also in that group.

I didn't see that. I don't oppose a TA lynch, either. But he's a vet, so all things equal, I'd rather lynch Simon.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 12, 2018, 06:50:04 am
The people who jumped on it are where I would look for scum now. Ironically, that's iguana. But then he changed. The others are raptor and simon.

vote: simon

Everyday I'm tunneling..

However, I agree that the wagon probably have scum on itself. TA is still there: vote: TA
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 12, 2018, 09:36:12 am
@DatSwan, how do you reconcile that two of your top scumreads, me and TA, started a wagon on your top scumread, EFHW?

If either of us were scum with EFHW, what's the motivation there?

Also, I believe you have the opportinity to put your top scum read to L-1.

... bussing for credit or something else as elementary as that?

No offense, but you sound to me like you are getting your reads from a random number generator and your scum narratives from a magic 8 ball.....

Why would randomly switching to a scum partner out of nowhere be a good move when we are just a weekend away from the deadline?

Because it is day 1 and i openly admit to not being able to have substantial reads day one and it is just guess work.
Why are you pretending people should be sonsure on day 1?

I wasn't suggesting that you should be so sure. But there is some information to go off of and it seemed like your reads were very random, as if you weren't considering the framework of who was voting for who very much when you assembled them but going off of pure gut feel about each individual in a vacuum.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 12, 2018, 09:39:34 am
I'm on board with vote: EFHW, as good as anyone to me.
Except not, because I'm town!

Didnt you research whether saying 'I'm town' comes more fromtown or scum and found it gad more to do with the player than their alignment?
Yes, that was me. But I AM town, so I said it.

I've seen your scum play amdI remember it  being calm, collected and full of remarkably towny statements. Am I wrong?
Alas, you are right.

So on what basis should anyone not want your lynch then?
So you'll policy lynch me for being hard to read? You made a similar argument about Robz earlier, with the difference that his new meta makes him participate less.

This isn't a policy lynch. This is a tunnel on a weak scum read, because I have nothing better to go off of right now. It bothers me that you are not responding with the same cavalier attitude that you have responded with in your last town game where you got D1 suspicion. I realize that you aren't a restless spirit here, but still... It was an earlier calmness in your play that tipped me off to a potential scum read on you. Your response hasn't been satisfying.

Look, I'm probably wrong. I've played enough games to know that. That's what sucks about mafia.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 12, 2018, 09:41:39 am
I mean he isn't a lynch candidate anymore. where's your evidence that he is town?

not to be rude... but I asked first. I'll even give you my reasons - but I expect yours in return.
XXR is town to me Day 1 because he will either slip up or get lyched for being less than active as the game continues. To lynch him D1 here seems dumb on general principal unless there is a hard skum read on them. So I am looking for a hard skum read from someone. Without that, they are essentially removed from my D1 pool.
*I am also aware of the Hippocratic nature of this post as they have probably contributed more than I in this game. It is more based on generalization*

Also, since we are on the topic II - what is your reads list prior to the end of D1?

My current read on raptor is null, maybe a little towny because he had an easy wagon on him at one point and usually that isn't scum D1. But still could be scum because it was only a 4 vote wagon.

I don't want to hand my full reads list to the scum team.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 12, 2018, 09:42:30 am
The people who jumped on it are where I would look for scum now. Ironically, that's iguana. But then he changed. The others are raptor and simon.

vote: simon

I believe I started, rather than jumped on, this wagon.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 12, 2018, 09:44:28 am
@DatSwan - You are wasting your time at this point asking me questions, trying to determine my alignment. My play advice to you is to accept that you don't want to lynch me today and find your ideal target for a lynch, because the deadline is soon. Then, we can talk about that.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 12, 2018, 10:30:28 am
The people who jumped on it are where I would look for scum now. Ironically, that's iguana. But then he changed. The others are raptor and simon.

vote: simon

I believe I started, rather than jumped on, this wagon.

That is true. I retract the piece of suspicion.

What do you think about the case on me? Still standing behind it? What's wrong with what I said?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 12, 2018, 10:34:32 am
I dunno, I want to hear another round from everyone else. I am  easily highest poster now, I've shared enough.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 12, 2018, 01:24:10 pm
Because I'm such a stellar D1 player usually?
Because you tend to be more thorough. So far you've only made a single farfetched scumslip suggestion.

It was all that my nitpicking could find. You claimed that yours came up empty, so is it that surprising that I didn't find anything better to comment on?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 12, 2018, 01:44:10 pm
Since my post yesterday, I've done a full person-wise re-read of everyone (all posts up till mine yesterday afternoon, anyway), and I'm still low on scumreads.

I still quite like my Skumpy-Simon axis, even if there is quite a strong chance that the "scumslip" is nothing.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 12, 2018, 02:01:53 pm
Since my post yesterday, I've done a full person-wise re-read of everyone (all posts up till mine yesterday afternoon, anyway), and I'm still low on scumreads.

I still quite like my Skumpy-Simon axis, even if there is quite a strong chance that the "scumslip" is nothing.

It is nothing. My scumread stance.

My lynchpool for D1 will be SA, TA, EFHW and I guess raptor if that would come around. Silver would be too much Omgus, I still think he is town after all.

Would be nice to hear some more from Robz if possible, still busy?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 12, 2018, 02:05:06 pm
And now I have my rolling vote tracker up and running!

Peak wagon was EFHW at #220, with 5 votes, though she's down to three now. I don't really feel inclined to vote her just yet, because she's made a bunch of decent observations, aside from scumreading me.

Iguana's very townie. Other people I don't fancy lynching D1 are gkrieg, Galz and silver, though that's all part-townread, part-meta.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 12, 2018, 02:08:33 pm
I kind of want to feel good about voting TA, because he seems to be a lynch even my marginal scumreads can get behind, but really, he seems too easy an "out" to be likely scum.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 12, 2018, 02:19:09 pm
Meh, I'm going to go with Vote: Simon for now, because leaving my vote on a person I actually don't want to lynch is silly. Feel free to accuse me of omgus.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 12, 2018, 03:24:04 pm
Meh, I'm going to go with Vote: Simon for now, because leaving my vote on a person I actually don't want to lynch is silly. Feel free to accuse me of omgus.

OMGUS. Also townread on Space
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 12, 2018, 04:29:12 pm
@DatSwan - You are wasting your time at this point asking me questions, trying to determine my alignment. My play advice to you is to accept that you don't want to lynch me today and find your ideal target for a lynch, because the deadline is soon. Then, we can talk about that.
The odd thing is that he has already decided you are town - I think he asked for your reads under the assumption that you would die tonight
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: LaLight on August 12, 2018, 04:30:40 pm
What do you feel?

Vote Count 1.6


Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
SpaceAnemone (1): EFHW
Twistedarcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (2): Twistedarcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
Simon Jester (2): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone
Not Voting (1): DatSwan

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 12, 2018, 04:47:00 pm
This isn't a policy lynch. This is a tunnel on a weak scum read, because I have nothing better to go off of right now. It bothers me that you are not responding with the same cavalier attitude that you have responded with in your last town game where you got D1 suspicion. I realize that you aren't a restless spirit here, but still... It was an earlier calmness in your play that tipped me off to a potential scum read on you. Your response hasn't been satisfying.

Look, I'm probably wrong. I've played enough games to know that. That's what sucks about mafia.
In the last game I wanted to die. This game I do not. Can't comment on calmness. Yeah, agree with you on that last point.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 12, 2018, 04:53:55 pm
Getting a weak scumread on silver. Seems a mite on the defensive side.

Is TA vla? I'm not sure how to take his "why aren't you guys suspecting me" thing.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 12, 2018, 04:57:04 pm
Vote: silver given the closeness of deadline.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 12, 2018, 05:12:03 pm
What do you feel?

Vote Count 1.6


Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (2):, Galzria, iguanaiguana
SpaceAnemone (1): EFHW
Twistedarcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (2): Twistedarcher, Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (2): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone
Not Voting (1): DatSwan

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT.

Lalight, I think Iguana is voting EFHW right now

At this point, day's approaching the end, and as always, it's totally scattered. Iguana is the only person that has done an adequate job of conveying townliness. My suspicion of DatSwan has risen and I'm also wary of Raptor because he's due eventually for a breakout scum game that nobody sees coming. Also mostly unsure of 8 other people. There's a lot of "I have no ideas" posts by everybody, which are reasonable but not necessarily town, and definitely not super helpful. This post included.

I'll be back later on today, through it's already probably too late to get a wagon going on someone that doesn't already have one.

gkrieg: Move your vote, I'm not getting lynched today. Try again tomorrow.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 12, 2018, 06:06:17 pm
Ok.

can't lynch: skumpy

won't lynch: iguana, space, EFHW

kinda want lynch: simon

won't protest: everyone else
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 12, 2018, 06:06:49 pm
Vote: silver given the closeness of deadline.
Why not TA or simon? They're both much more likely to be scum.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 12, 2018, 06:26:06 pm
@DatSwan - You are wasting your time at this point asking me questions, trying to determine my alignment. My play advice to you is to accept that you don't want to lynch me today and find your ideal target for a lynch, because the deadline is soon. Then, we can talk about that.
The odd thing is that he has already decided you are town - I think he asked for your reads under the assumption that you would die tonight

I didn't even get to the considering if II would die tonight part. I was just asking for explanation of reads.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 12, 2018, 06:39:32 pm
Vote: silver given the closeness of deadline.
Why not TA or simon? They're both much more likely to be scum.
They are?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 12, 2018, 06:42:08 pm
Also, since we are on the topic II - what is your reads list prior to the end of D1?

I guess I misunderstood this.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 12, 2018, 06:58:09 pm
Vote: silver given the closeness of deadline.
Why not TA or simon? They're both much more likely to be scum.
They are?

yeah, ε > 0.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 12, 2018, 07:35:18 pm
Space count, as of #266:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
Simon Jester (2): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone
Not Voting (1): DatSwan


Other interesting thing: the people who each player has voted for so far:
Simon Jester (6): Skumpy, DatSwan, SpaceAnemone, EFHW, TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96
Robz888 (4): Simon Jester, Skumpy, TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96
IguanaIguana (4): Simon Jester, EFHW, silverspawn, Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (4): Simon Jester, Galzria, EFHW, Xxraptorslayer96
Skumpy (2): Galzria, TwistedArcher
SpaceAnemone (2): Simon Jester, silverspawn
EFHW (2): SpaceAnemone, silverspawn
TwistedArcher (2): Galzria, EFHW
Xxraptorslayer96 (2): Simon Jester, EFHW
Galzria (1): silverspawn
gkrieg (1): Skumpy
DatSwan (0): -

As usual, these are vote-counter-generated, so might miss weirdly-formatted votes, or stuff where the mod would have to make a call. LMK if you think there's something wrong, though.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 12, 2018, 07:40:53 pm
As for deadline, it's midnight my time, so I'll be here :-) However, I probably won't get online properly till about an hour beforehand because I'm out tomorrow night straight from work.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 12, 2018, 07:43:20 pm
@DatSwan - You are wasting your time at this point asking me questions, trying to determine my alignment. My play advice to you is to accept that you don't want to lynch me today and find your ideal target for a lynch, because the deadline is soon. Then, we can talk about that.
The odd thing is that he has already decided you are town - I think he asked for your reads under the assumption that you would die tonight

I didn't even get to the considering if II would die tonight part. I was just asking for explanation of reads.

I have literally never died N1 in any game before so if suddenly this game turns into 'he's alive D2, he must be scum' I would find that pretty ironic.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 12, 2018, 08:00:17 pm
@DatSwan - You are wasting your time at this point asking me questions, trying to determine my alignment. My play advice to you is to accept that you don't want to lynch me today and find your ideal target for a lynch, because the deadline is soon. Then, we can talk about that.
The odd thing is that he has already decided you are town - I think he asked for your reads under the assumption that you would die tonight

I didn't even get to the considering if II would die tonight part. I was just asking for explanation of reads.

I have literally never died N1 in any game before so if suddenly this game turns into 'he's alive D2, he must be scum' I would find that pretty ironic.

again. to reiterate... not what I was thinking. The time stamp I put on it was simply because I expected (as you had not yet posted reads) you were not going to give them to me. As you responded something along the lines of "lets talk about this later" - I don't think you will find it hard to accept I was just leaving a reference point.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 12, 2018, 08:02:44 pm
And I realize I need to vote. After reading and analyzing I have 3 canidates.
1 of which is never getting lynched today - so not bothering.

It is actually a close choice on the other two. But for now...

Vote: Simon
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 12, 2018, 08:12:36 pm
Vote: simon

Heres to hoping I'm not just silver's pawn.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 12, 2018, 08:20:54 pm
lol Silver's Pawn = Silverspawn
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 12, 2018, 08:41:11 pm
Simon, why should we not lynch you?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 12, 2018, 08:41:31 pm
Vote: simon

Heres to hoping I'm not just silver's pawn.

I think you are. I think you are.

And I don't know right now.. Is the case the scumslip-argument, my tone or some other stuff I missed? I mean I can shut up if that helps, but killing off trying-to-be-helpful newb!town seems like a bad move.

ppe
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 12, 2018, 08:49:58 pm
Simon, why should we not lynch you?

I have been active, enjoying the game, trying to be as obv!town as I can being new and all. I have failed miserably with that apparently,  but still, this is not new!scum playing. I've made strong stances (SA is Scum I guarantee it) flinged my vote nevertheless and yeah - in my mind being new and a tad awkward perhaps but not scummy. I'm the easy lynch among the active players, please avoid it if you can.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 12, 2018, 08:53:57 pm
Aren't you like... not actually new? Your continuing emphasis on your newness isn't doing you any favors with me.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 12, 2018, 09:00:04 pm
@Simon the reason I somewhat scum read you right now is that I find the people who have voted you during D1 to be a townier set of players than the people who you have voted during D1. Both groups are six players; there's some overlap but not a ton of it. This is info that I extrapolated from Space's data.

How do you respond to that?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 12, 2018, 09:01:34 pm
Aren't you like... not actually new? Your continuing emphasis on your newness isn't doing you any favors with me.

For all practical purposes, yes, I am. The only player I can remember playing with is Ashersky and one of my games was BM, all three years ago. You don't know my style and everything I say or do is easy to see in a scummy way because of it. Happens all the time and otherwise I can't really get why I'm getting heat.

Datswan: care to enlighten me? Your vote was unexpected.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 12, 2018, 09:12:31 pm
@Simon the reason I somewhat scum read you right now is that I find the people who have voted you during D1 to be a townier set of players than the people who you have voted during D1. Both groups are six players; there's some overlap but not a ton of it. This is info that I extrapolated from Space's data.

How do you respond to that?

You think? It's Silver, SA, Datswan and you right now, right? Except from you they are not townier than anyone else right now and many votes on me earlier have been semi-RVS so I think I have trouble seeing tour point somewhat.

I can see the newbie vs vet argument if it comes up to me or TA, but I could counter with active against lurker so meh.. Do as you wish, no lynch except SA (they are scum, I guarantee it!) are ideal at this point as usual. As long as my death can be productive to town, I'm willing to be lynched I suppose, but I'd rather not 'cause, well, I'm town.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 12, 2018, 10:15:28 pm
@Simon the reason I somewhat scum read you right now is that I find the people who have voted you during D1 to be a townier set of players than the people who you have voted during D1. Both groups are six players; there's some overlap but not a ton of it. This is info that I extrapolated from Space's data.

How do you respond to that?
If he's scum, shouldn't he be voting for the people you find towny?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 12, 2018, 10:29:40 pm
Vote: Simon

Better him than me.

Iguana is reading very town to me.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: LaLight on August 13, 2018, 04:04:28 am
What do you feel?

Vote Count 1.7


Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
Twistedarcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, Twistedarcher

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in 15 hours.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 13, 2018, 05:14:29 am
Simon's flailing doesn't scream town to me. No intention to move.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 13, 2018, 05:34:20 am
I'll be around today, almost certainly there for deadline.

This Simon wagon feels like a really bad idea. Firstly, gut says town, I think you people really need to consider the value in lynching somebody who has done a good job of sparking discussion and who seems just too awkward to be scum. Space is voting because of a theory that I have presented as clearly as I possibly could as complete and utter hogwash and poppycock. I'm sure they (and maybe others are thinking) 'oh, it's not a slip but they're still partners, oh man!' No, that's wrong as well. Silverspawn and Silver's Pawn aren't very convincing in their arguments, silver's I remember as being a selection out of EFHW's wagon. TA at least I can understand.

And as for DatSwan...

How he has flown completely under the radar so far, I have absolutely no clue. I suspect due in part to Galz's read. But there's a lot I don't trust, such as being the last one to vote (which I think he's done before, even as town, but still something I don't trust), his arbitrary reads which II aptly described as:

No offense, but you sound to me like you are getting your reads from a random number generator and your scum narratives from a magic 8 ball.....

and his reaction to my coalition offer, which I am now going to settle on as the scummiest response. Maybe other posts interest me too, who knows? So, I'd be OK putting a vote there, but doing so makes it easier for Simon to be the lynch, so I have to stay on TA unless somebody else wants to try starting a wagon there.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 13, 2018, 06:21:05 am
Simon's flailing doesn't scream town to me. No intention to move.

Where did I "flail"?

You won't find gold nor scum in your tunnel Silver, get out already.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 13, 2018, 07:06:43 am
Ugh, a Datswan - reread didn't gave much. He keeps his cards close to himself, don't explain his votes much and is generally vague it seems to me. Although I don't get that much of a scumvibe because of it, but I don't really know his style at all..

Real question - Why? I have like a tinfoil hat D1 theory, but it is currently being outweighed by the silliness of the approach.

Could we hear about the theory now tho? What is your stance on Skumpy right now?

And I realize I need to vote. After reading and analyzing I have 3 canidates.
1 of which is never getting lynched today - so not bothering.

It is actually a close choice on the other two. But for now...

Vote: Simon

I really, really don't like this vote. The timing is perfect for scum to jump on and there is no reasoning what so ever. Just join the kill-the-Jester club will ya, no entrance fee required.. that is not pretty.

And ugh. Please Robz, Galz, Space, gkrieg - come in here. We need you to see if another path is possible. I think TA is better than Datswan right now, but Skumpys case is pretty solid. Datswan- lynch yes/no motivate?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 13, 2018, 07:48:41 am
vote: TA
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: LaLight on August 13, 2018, 07:58:54 am
What do you feel?

Vote Count 1.8


Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
Twistedarcher (4): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, Twistedarcher

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in 11 hours.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 09:27:15 am
vote: TA

Why TA over simon?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 13, 2018, 09:50:40 am
Space is voting because of a theory that I have presented as clearly as I possibly could as complete and utter hogwash and poppycock.

Space is voting because Simon seems like their top candidate for scum of the people they feel happy with pushing for a D1 lynch.

Do you think Simon is a bad lynch because you think he's townie, or just because you don't like my one comment?

PPE 3: started a response this morning and it got forgotten about...
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 13, 2018, 10:12:24 am
vote: TA

Why TA over simon?
Why Simon at all? TA hasn't been contributing.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 10:36:19 am
The scumslip may not have been anything but Simon and Skumpy are still acting like newbie scumpartners. Biggest evidence against it I guess is that Skumpy has won as scum before so I don't expect such obvious partnery play from him
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 13, 2018, 10:38:11 am
Space is voting because of a theory that I have presented as clearly as I possibly could as complete and utter hogwash and poppycock.

Space is voting because Simon seems like their top candidate for scum of the people they feel happy with pushing for a D1 lynch.

Do you think Simon is a bad lynch because you think he's townie, or just because you don't like my one comment?

PPE 3: started a response this morning and it got forgotten about...

What are the other candidates? Why am I the top one, barring everything around the omgus-issue?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 10:39:31 am
TA hasn't contributed much, but he still looks like a much worse choice than simon to me. Just reread his ISO and what he has said and done has been a lot townier than the other potential lynch candidates.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 13, 2018, 10:44:43 am
The scumslip may not have been anything but Simon and Skumpy are still acting like newbie scumpartners. Biggest evidence against it I guess is that Skumpy has won as scum before so I don't expect such obvious partnery play from him

Skumpy is buddying me, yes, but as you say that is evidence against us being scum together. I don't care much for Skumpys support, it's nice with someone being reasonable but it actually gives him scumpoint from my POV.

Now, listen to your own logic and move this wagon somewhere where it makes sense. My lynch is, to speak with sliver, stupid.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 10:48:00 am
Request prods on gkrieg, Robz, Galzria

I would bet money on there being at least one scum in those three, wish I knew which tho.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: LaLight on August 13, 2018, 10:50:10 am
Request prods on gkrieg, Robz, Galzria

I would bet money on there being at least one scum in those three, wish I knew which tho.

Sent.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 10:51:41 am
Actually at this point I would go for a wagon on Robz or Galz. Lurking this close to the deadline is scummy and any player who promises content and doesnt deliver is more of a liability than an asset to my mind, reputations be damned.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 10:52:24 am
gkrieg gets a pass for a towny mid day and he always has spotty appearances anyway
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 13, 2018, 11:01:55 am
Actually at this point I would go for a wagon on Robz or Galz. Lurking this close to the deadline is scummy and any player who promises content and doesnt deliver is more of a liability than an asset to my mind, reputations be damned.

I really get the feeling of this day that it is town arguing with each other. So yeah, let's try vote: Robz
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 13, 2018, 11:22:10 am
I really thought I had posted.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 13, 2018, 11:29:36 am

Simon-skunpy are definitely buddying, but if itís town/scum I think skumpy is the more likely town than Simon. When youíre the Lynch candidate if youíre scum, itís not in your interest to rule anyone out, especially d1. I am much happier voting Simon than skumpy.

Would also not be surprised if scum is in robz/gkrieg/galz, with galz being my favorite candidate. I do kind of agree with simons latest assessment, that town is flailing today and getting nowhere and thereís absolutely no action needed from scum to get the ball rolling in another direction.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 13, 2018, 11:31:02 am
I donít think thereís enough time to start a new wagon, though.

Gkrieg, I donít think skumpy will happen today ó Iíd recommend moving your vote to somewhere a lynch would happen.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Robz888 on August 13, 2018, 11:50:33 am
I'm here.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Robz888 on August 13, 2018, 11:57:50 am
Why is there not time to start a new wagon? The Simon lynch feels too easy. Also, him voting for me right here is a pretty terrible move if he's scum, because I'm not voting him currently but might, from his perspective, switch to him if irked. Which would be bad.

I actually do not think a Galz vote is crazy here. His lack of involvement here arguably is more likely to signal that he is scum.

Vote: Galz who is with me?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 13, 2018, 11:57:59 am
I'm here.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Robz888 on August 13, 2018, 11:58:10 am
Also did we ever get Galz's case on EFHW? I was interested in that.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Robz888 on August 13, 2018, 11:58:21 am
Well speak of the devil!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 13, 2018, 12:04:13 pm
Sorry, but the line that I've been absent over any given weekend is scummy is ridiculous. You can go back and look at almost every game I've played. Saturday and Sunday are generally 10+ hour days for me. I very, very rarely find the time to post anything during that span - and this is especially true for a D1.

Despite deadline approaching however, I'm teaching until 4:00pm FT. I will be here for the entirety of deadline however. I do not care for either wagon atm and think people should reconsider SS, but I admit I haven't done my part to provide much reason for it. I'll finish that once I'm done teaching as well so at a minimum it's out there before EoD in case I don't get the chance on D2.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 13, 2018, 12:04:40 pm
Well speak of the devil!

Kettle can't call out the pot for being black.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 13, 2018, 12:05:13 pm
Also did we ever get Galz's case on EFHW? I was interested in that.

SS, not EFHW.

Gotta drive now, so I'm off.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 13, 2018, 12:05:33 pm
Wait, so Robz was just being absent rather than formally VLA?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Robz888 on August 13, 2018, 12:07:10 pm
Wait, so Robz was just being absent rather than formally VLA?

I was at a conference and then a vacation in New Orleans, and traveling all day yesterday. I've got pictures to prove it!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Robz888 on August 13, 2018, 12:07:28 pm
Also did we ever get Galz's case on EFHW? I was interested in that.

SS, not EFHW.

Gotta drive now, so I'm off.

Oh, well I'd be interested in that, too!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 13, 2018, 12:15:33 pm
deadline is in 7 hours?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 13, 2018, 01:01:07 pm
Space is voting because of a theory that I have presented as clearly as I possibly could as complete and utter hogwash and poppycock.

Space is voting because Simon seems like their top candidate for scum of the people they feel happy with pushing for a D1 lynch.

Do you think Simon is a bad lynch because you think he's townie, or just because you don't like my one comment?

The former

The scumslip may not have been anything but Simon and Skumpy are still acting like newbie scumpartners. Biggest evidence against it I guess is that Skumpy has won as scum before so I don't expect such obvious partnery play from him
I'm generally a busser, not a buddyer. In fact, if I correctly get a scum lynched today, that would be the most damning evidence against me. And I'd rather be buddies with you, but you're having none of it.

Robz, is there a reason you didn't want to vote Galz when that wagon was at 3?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Robz888 on August 13, 2018, 01:13:29 pm
Robz, is there a reason you didn't want to vote Galz when that wagon was at 3?

I wasn't here, and never saw that.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 01:21:08 pm
Vote: Galz

The argument was that you promised content and didnt deliver, not just lurking. And I have seen scum do that all the time so I know it is scummy.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 13, 2018, 01:24:54 pm
Alright, I'll bite.

Vote: Galz
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 13, 2018, 01:47:30 pm
I mainly don't want to lynch Space, TA, or silver right now.  Skumpy is still by far my first choice.  I feel so sure he is scum that i honestly haven't even looked elsewhere.

I'll look at galz and EFHW in a bit.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: LaLight on August 13, 2018, 02:31:57 pm
What do you feel?

Vote Count 1.9


Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
Twistedarcher (1): EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (4): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, Twistedarcher
Robz888 (1): Simon Jester
Galzria (3): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in 4,5 hours.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 13, 2018, 02:33:40 pm
I mainly don't want to lynch Space, TA, or silver right now.  Skumpy is still by far my first choice.  I feel so sure he is scum that i honestly haven't even looked elsewhere.

I'll look at galz and EFHW in a bit.

I'd be OK with voting Galz or TA. Therefore, I'll save you the trouble of having to do a read and help you be more productive today by suggesting you go vote Simon, the only other person who could get lynched.

I'm going to try to be as quick and blunt as possible before I get distracted and embark upon another rant; you're wrong, your read is garbage, and regardless of the quality of the read anyhow, it's awful and embarrassing to tunnel on D1 without even entertaining the thought of anybody else or giving yourself a slight pause to think about the possibility that you could be wrong. I can understand if you think I'm Skum; that's fine, I've heard it before, and it's not even totally absurd. But Christ man; check your ego, and think for a second before you you blow a game (or at least a lynch) based on a single read....on D1. If you aren't scum, I can safely say your reads have been the worst of any town because the only person you have scumread, is in fact, town, and that scum is laughing because one of the players here with the best reputation has been led so far astray.

That probably went too far, and I apologize, but at least express a little self-doubt. There's a reason this game is not easy.

Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 13, 2018, 02:44:23 pm
I mainly don't want to lynch Space, TA, or silver right now.  Skumpy is still by far my first choice.  I feel so sure he is scum that i honestly haven't even looked elsewhere.

I'll look at galz and EFHW in a bit.

I'd be OK with voting Galz or TA. Therefore, I'll save you the trouble of having to do a read and help you be more productive today by suggesting you go vote Simon, the only other person who could get lynched.

I'm going to try to be as quick and blunt as possible before I get distracted and embark upon another rant; you're wrong, your read is garbage, and regardless of the quality of the read anyhow, it's awful and embarrassing to tunnel on D1 without even entertaining the thought of anybody else or giving yourself a slight pause to think about the possibility that you could be wrong. I can understand if you think I'm Skum; that's fine, I've heard it before, and it's not even totally absurd. But Christ man; check your ego, and think for a second before you you blow a game (or at least a lynch) based on a single read....on D1. If you aren't scum, I can safely say your reads have been the worst of any town because the only person you have scumread, is in fact, town, and that scum is laughing because one of the players here with the best reputation has been led so far astray.

That probably went too far, and I apologize, but at least express a little self-doubt. There's a reason this game is not easy.

I'm sorry, but this just makes me want to lynch you more.  This is scummy OMGUS.  It doesn't try to discredit me, the person making the argument (I admit that I haven't given that many reasons), instead of the argument itself.  Saying that it is awful and embarrassing to tunnel hard D1 is absurd.  It's certainly not about my ego.  I'm consistently wrong about tunnels (especially D1 on faust), and people are consistently wrong about me when I'm tunnelled D1 (which also happens enough).

Want to explain why you think Simon should be lynched over TA and galz?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 13, 2018, 02:52:02 pm
I mainly don't want to lynch Space, TA, or silver right now.  Skumpy is still by far my first choice.  I feel so sure he is scum that i honestly haven't even looked elsewhere.

I'll look at galz and EFHW in a bit.

I'd be OK with voting Galz or TA. Therefore, I'll save you the trouble of having to do a read and help you be more productive today by suggesting you go vote Simon, the only other person who could get lynched.

I'm going to try to be as quick and blunt as possible before I get distracted and embark upon another rant; you're wrong, your read is garbage, and regardless of the quality of the read anyhow, it's awful and embarrassing to tunnel on D1 without even entertaining the thought of anybody else or giving yourself a slight pause to think about the possibility that you could be wrong. I can understand if you think I'm Skum; that's fine, I've heard it before, and it's not even totally absurd. But Christ man; check your ego, and think for a second before you you blow a game (or at least a lynch) based on a single read....on D1. If you aren't scum, I can safely say your reads have been the worst of any town because the only person you have scumread, is in fact, town, and that scum is laughing because one of the players here with the best reputation has been led so far astray.

That probably went too far, and I apologize, but at least express a little self-doubt. There's a reason this game is not easy.

I'm sorry, but this just makes me want to lynch you more.  This is scummy OMGUS.  It doesn't try to discredit me, the person making the argument (I admit that I haven't given that many reasons), instead of the argument itself.  Saying that it is awful and embarrassing to tunnel hard D1 is absurd.  It's certainly not about my ego.  I'm consistently wrong about tunnels (especially D1 on faust), and people are consistently wrong about me when I'm tunnelled D1 (which also happens enough).

Want to explain why you think Simon should be lynched over TA and galz?

The sad part of the omgus is Iím leaning town on you. 
Iím saying since I dont want to vote Simon, you should because obviously Iím skum protecting a partner.

Iíve said reasons before for reads, canít now since Iím phoneposting at lunch.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 13, 2018, 03:09:24 pm
Galz is an okey lynch. Not the best, but it's worth a shot. Vote: Galzria

Skumpys reaction to gkriegs scumread is... weird. Your olay today has been outlandish and it's not surprising at all someone regards it as very scummy. I don't agree with gkrieg, but can't say my townread on you is the strongest one ever.

Hope to be here at deadline but might not make it.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 13, 2018, 03:37:55 pm
prefer Simon over galz.

Galz has done nothing. That's generally bad for a day 1 lynch. In case of a lurker it's a problematic argument, because they are a problem for town later, too. But presumably galz would do more later.

That and he's just 100% null.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 13, 2018, 04:02:55 pm
Galz is an okey lynch. Not the best, but it's worth a shot. Vote: Galzria

Skumpys reaction to gkriegs scumread is... weird. Your olay today has been outlandish and it's not surprising at all someone regards it as very scummy. I don't agree with gkrieg, but can't say my townread on you is the strongest one ever.

Hope to be here at deadline but might not make it.

Scumreading isn't what bothers me. It's the tunnel, which lends itself to complete unhelpfulness.

So Galz is going to vote Simon. gkrieg's going to vote Simon because I'm not. Even if EFHW votes Galz, it's still 6-5, and there's basically nobody on the Simon wagon that I think could swing.

To respond to gkrieg: As I once said, I don't like Galz ignoring the coalition and all the responses. I feel like it got the game out of RVS pretty quickly, and those are the kinds of situations that Galz loves to look at to figure out who responded scummily. It feels like a cop-out on his part to say I'm skummy and leave it at that.

It remains to be seen, of course, but I'm not sure this is a dual-town wagon. The Galz wagon is interesting, and the people on it are interesting.

Not sure of deadline status. Around for most of the next few hours, but probably a biggish break somewhere. Maybe during deadline, maybe before.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Robz888 on August 13, 2018, 04:05:20 pm
prefer Simon over galz.

Galz has done nothing. That's generally bad for a day 1 lynch. In case of a lurker it's a problematic argument, because they are a problem for town later, too. But presumably galz would do more later.

That and he's just 100% null.

I don't think Galz is a bad lynch here. I mean, I have this impulse to not lynch him, just because he's Galz. But it's good to mix things up.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 13, 2018, 04:14:02 pm
So Galz is going to vote Simon. gkrieg's going to vote Simon because I'm not. Even if EFHW votes Galz, it's still 6-5, and there's basically nobody on the Simon wagon that I think could swing.

TA and Datswan should be able to swing, and if they're not they should be the first to be under suspicion D2 when I flip town.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 13, 2018, 04:18:55 pm
Yeah, Iím perfectly happy voting Galz.

vote: galzria
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 13, 2018, 04:19:30 pm
Skumpyís rant is over the top but reads genuine town to me.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 13, 2018, 04:21:22 pm
Regardless, I donít think scum skumpy would buddy Simon this hard if Simon was either town. So I donít want to lynch skumpy while Simon is alive, I am definitely leaning town on skumpy.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 13, 2018, 04:24:37 pm
Apart from Simon and robz, who is completely null, Iím happy with the people on the galzria wagon. More town reads on wagon than off wagon.

Gkriegís tunneling on skumpy is weird in that itís not going to happen today, he should know based on the vote count itís not happening today, so he should be trying to move one of the lynches thatís actually possible forward, but heís not doing so.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Robz888 on August 13, 2018, 04:25:30 pm
Agree, skumpy's rant is fairly townie. Weird that gkrieg doesn't see that.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 13, 2018, 04:28:59 pm
FOS to everyone not actively moving us to a lynch. Thereís a lot of people who still have their votes in useless places 2.5 hours to deadline, and some of these people have come in and posted and not moved their votes.

Everyone should be stating how they feel about Simon and galzria, and if theyíre not willing to lynch either then try to get a third wagon going, but we really donít have much time left.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 13, 2018, 04:35:02 pm
Apart from Simon and robz, who is completely null, Iím happy with the people on the galzria wagon. More town reads on wagon than off wagon.

Gkriegís tunneling on skumpy is weird in that itís not going to happen today, he should know based on the vote count itís not happening today, so he should be trying to move one of the lynches thatís actually possible forward, but heís not doing so.

Ok, yeah, scumreading Skumpy all you want but his lynch won't happen D1 and parking your vote there in this way is almost beyond useless. FoS und so weiter..
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 13, 2018, 04:37:06 pm
Skumpyís rant is over the top but reads genuine town to me.
Probably. Almost certainly. But I was getting sick that our argument was sounding like a broken record.

Regardless, I donít think scum skumpy would buddy Simon this hard if Simon was either town. So I donít want to lynch skumpy while Simon is alive, I am definitely leaning town on skumpy.
It's a townread that could waver if he survives today. I'd probably be fighting more vigorously if it was Iguana. I don't think buddying and challenging lynches is particularly alignment indicative for me, though I do think it points away from our Axis, *cough* Space *cough*.


Agree, skumpy's rant is fairly townie. Weird that gkrieg doesn't see that.
Funny, I can actually see my rant as kind of scummy. I'll take the townread though.

FOS to everyone not actively moving us to a lynch. Thereís a lot of people who still have their votes in useless places 2.5 hours to deadline, and some of these people have come in and posted and not moved their votes.
This. Also going to extend it to Raptor for showing up and not moving his vote.

I should probably accept at this point that I've never been able to stick to a scum D1 and help get them lynched before, so apologize in advance if I wind up having helped not at all.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 04:44:10 pm
Honestly I can't remember the last D1 scum lynch on f.ds. It starts to feel hopeless but I believe its possible
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 13, 2018, 04:47:33 pm
Galz is an okey lynch. Not the best, but it's worth a shot. Vote: Galzria

Skumpys reaction to gkriegs scumread is... weird. Your olay today has been outlandish and it's not surprising at all someone regards it as very scummy. I don't agree with gkrieg, but can't say my townread on you is the strongest one ever.

Hope to be here at deadline but might not make it.

Scumreading isn't what bothers me. It's the tunnel, which lends itself to complete unhelpfulness.

So Galz is going to vote Simon. gkrieg's going to vote Simon because I'm not. Even if EFHW votes Galz, it's still 6-5, and there's basically nobody on the Simon wagon that I think could swing.

To respond to gkrieg: As I once said, I don't like Galz ignoring the coalition and all the responses. I feel like it got the game out of RVS pretty quickly, and those are the kinds of situations that Galz loves to look at to figure out who responded scummily. It feels like a cop-out on his part to say I'm skummy and leave it at that.

It remains to be seen, of course, but I'm not sure this is a dual-town wagon. The Galz wagon is interesting, and the people on it are interesting.

Not sure of deadline status. Around for most of the next few hours, but probably a biggish break somewhere. Maybe during deadline, maybe before.

I don't know why you think I'm going to vote for Simon just because you aren't going to vote for him.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 13, 2018, 04:49:27 pm
vote: Simon
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 13, 2018, 04:51:43 pm
vote: Simon

So, uhm, why are you voting me?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 13, 2018, 05:15:12 pm
vote: Simon

So, uhm, why are you voting me?

Between you and galz, your wagon is townier.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 05:18:09 pm
That's five votes for Galz, four for Simon?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 13, 2018, 05:18:39 pm
vote: Simon

So, uhm, why are you voting me?

Between you and galz, your wagon is townier.

You will not think so tomorrow...
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 13, 2018, 05:19:14 pm
request vote count, please
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 13, 2018, 05:22:00 pm
gkrieg's going to vote Simon because I'm not.

I don't know why you think I'm going to vote for Simon just because you aren't going to vote for him.

vote: Simon

So, uhm, why are you voting me?

Between you and galz, your wagon is townier.

...am I crazy?



Also, gone 30 minutes before deadline. 99% won't be back in time.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 13, 2018, 05:22:25 pm
I apologize to one and all for my late foray into this whole D1 thing - and being this close to deadline. I honestly thought it was on Tuesday, not today, but I obviously haven't been paying much attention. That aside, it wouldn't have changed my tardiness here - real life and work have prevented me from being as present as I wished to be... but alas, that isn't exactly anything new on my end.

To the meat of my Silver vote - and one that I honestly hope isn't too late for others to get on board with. I recognize in advance this isn't the "best case ever built" - but I DO think that it's more indicative of a scum alignment than most D1 cases - that is, it isn't focused solely on "Well, this person is a better D3 lynch than a D1 lynch", or "LALL", or "enter nonsense D1 scumslip here". The case is mostly based on a series of things that I feel like have been designed to dictate the way D1 has gone - that is, SS has tried to control the conversation D1, which is far easier and more likely to come from a source of knowledge (scum), rather than from a source of uncertainty (town):

-
Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

Iguana is his partner.

I like how you think.

You really shouldn't. could both of you say how serious your comments were?

This was a small, early thing, that I responded to (my response probably came across harsher than I meant - I meant it more tongue in cheek), but what stood out to me then was that SS, as a third party to Gkrieg and I, would feel the need to attempt to dictate how we read a situation. It was more than just a "I disagree with what you think" though, it was "You shouldn't think that" - it's an attempt to dictate and control.

-
That's a stupid vote. My instinct is to vote you in return but I don't think it actually makes you scummy.

This was in response to Simon voting for Space. This was the point in time that I began to scum read SS for this particular style of play. He didn't argue anything about the case that Simon made... he simply tried to dictate what/how Simon should read the game.

-
Ok, let's see where we are

iguana and skumpy are towny. Everyone else is null.

Not too great. We still have some time but not too much.

Maybe I could go for galz. I don't like the total dismissiveness of the scumslip. What if it actually was a scumslip?

Actually, that possibility sort of negates the towniness of skumpy and puts him closer to null. But I'm not voting for him anyway so it doesn't really matter.

This was followed by an immediate vote for me - now, there are certainly reasons to vote me, but this reason isn't one - first, it wasn't a scumslip - that doesn't mean the involved parties aren't scum, it just means that the "scumslip" wasn't one. Second, I was hardly the only person to very quickly state the above opinion. And third, well, I'll circle back because it's kinda my second thing about SS that I've found scummy. The last point here is how SS has tried to control the way the thread viewed the "scumslip". It's a subtle progression from "probably not one" and ends with him essentially calling it a real thing... except this should cause him to vote Skumpy... right? Except... he doesn't? And doesn't even really scum read Skumpy for a scumslip that he's saying is a thing... Here, watch:

-
This doesn't seem like one to me either, but I wouldn't disount it completely.
Maybe I could go for galz. I don't like the total dismissiveness of the scumslip. What if it actually was a scumslip?
skumpy is no longer towny since they just admitted to have planed the deal thing before the game started. Now slightly scummy for the scumslip.

And this actually leads in to my second thing about SS's play - he's been very good at pushing town in one direction while not involving himself, or pushing a town narrative while keeping undertones of "but don't rule scum out here!"... that is, he's saying one thing, while coming across as meaning the opposite - in a way that just feels manipulative to me.

-
hello.

iguana is the only one making sense so far.
Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.

"I agree with Iguana for supporting Skumpy here, but I won't support Skumpy here"

-
Simon seems so scummy to me that I'm beginning to think it's not an alignment think but a tone thing.

"Dude over here is scummy... but you didn't hear it from me!"

-
I super duper strongly disagree that only scum cares about scumslips. I think town cares more about scumslips, generally.

This doesn't seem like one to me either, but I wouldn't disount it completely.

"This probably isn't a scumslip... but it could be!"

-
That's a stupid vote. My instinct is to vote you in return but I don't think it actually makes you scummy.

"You deserve to be voted for your post... but I don't wanna be the one to do it!"

-
ok. vote: EFHW is as good as any.

I can't remember any game in which she was lynched early. Let's see what some day1 pressure does.

"Let's get and EFHW wagon going!..."

-
Also unvote I don't like the EFHW wagon. It has basically no justification and picked up too quickly.

The people who jumped on it are where I would look for scum now. Ironically, that's iguana. But then he changed. The others are raptor and simon.

vote: simon

"That was a scummy wagon on EFHW. I need to make sure to spin this to other people before it comes back to me for jumping on it with Iguana"

-
Vote: silver given the closeness of deadline.
Why not TA or simon? They're both much more likely to be scum.

And this is just confirmation bias, but this just feels much more likely to be a scum response than a town response.

And that's pretty much it. If you look over his vote history, he's been all over the map, and making changes quickly and often without reason, which has felt like he's trying to spread suspicion around as much as possible and keep as many doors open as he can. Overall, his play D1 has just come across as manipulative - like he wants to be in control of how people are thinking and voting. He's seemed to have his opinions set, and has come across as wanting to sow distrust wherever possible.

Just my 2 cents.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 13, 2018, 05:23:01 pm
That's five votes for Galz, four for Simon?

Think so. 5-5 if you count Galz, who's not here. PPE: Never mind. Let's read now!

Looks like EFHW's making the call.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 05:23:33 pm
gkrieg's going to vote Simon because I'm not.

I don't know why you think I'm going to vote for Simon just because you aren't going to vote for him.

vote: Simon

So, uhm, why are you voting me?

Between you and galz, your wagon is townier.

...am I crazy?



Also, gone 30 minutes before deadline. 99% won't be back in time.

I mean, yeah, I saw that; it's a little funny. But saying someone is going to do something for X reason before they have themselves decided what they are going to do is arrogant in a not-so-nice way so I think his response was totally justified.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 05:30:44 pm

[snip]

Just my 2 cents.

Ugh that's an awfully big two cents to throw out like 2 hours from the deadline :/ now I have to think about it
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 05:32:43 pm
Here's where I'm at:

Would vote Simon

Would vote silver

Would vote Galz

Would I vote just about ANYONE?

Not telling.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 13, 2018, 05:33:22 pm

[snip]

Just my 2 cents.

Ugh that's an awfully big two cents to throw out like 2 hours from the deadline :/ now I have to think about it

If it's too late, it's too late. That's my bad. But I posted it when I had the time to do so - it's out there before D1 ends, and if I end up lynched, or killed at night, or whatever, at least it's posted.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 05:35:19 pm
 I mean, my thing just showed EIGHT people viewing this thread, maybe some are spectators but presumably it's not too late for anything. If you have an opinion on Galz's post, please just share it and don't assume it's irrelevant because "X lynch is never going to happen before the deadline."
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 13, 2018, 05:39:23 pm
gkrieg's going to vote Simon because I'm not.

I don't know why you think I'm going to vote for Simon just because you aren't going to vote for him.

vote: Simon

So, uhm, why are you voting me?

Between you and galz, your wagon is townier.

...am I crazy?



Also, gone 30 minutes before deadline. 99% won't be back in time.

I mean, yeah, I saw that; it's a little funny. But saying someone is going to do something for X reason before they have themselves decided what they are going to do is arrogant in a not-so-nice way so I think his response was totally justified.

Was I that arrogant? I'm sorry if I was, but I was playing out the scenario I expected, and I didn't expect to see him voting where I was.

On Galz's post on ss not voting for me: It's called a coalition. I'm glad it's done well for me. Not sure why the scumslip discussion makes you focused on why ss isn't voting for me, as opposed to not voting for Simon.

Despite all that, where you pull out like 15 pieces of evidence, I'm still lost as to why you continue to ignore the most interesting post of all:

you know what, you're right! I didn't think this far.

Ok, skumpy, how about we don't vote for each other until day 3?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 13, 2018, 05:40:15 pm
I'm around now, and just caught up. Give me a couple more minutes and I'll have an auto-vote-count.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 13, 2018, 05:41:21 pm

I like this case/compilation. I have observed the same thing, but to much extent just thought of it as silvers playstile. Being a bit aggressive and harsch and that it isn't alignment-indecative, but seeing at collected like this it's a bit damning. I mean, I can take that he calls my vote stupid and don't engage in the scumslip- discussion but he has apparently done similar things all day here.

I don't care if I become the lynch because of it, I don't want to lynch Galz now. vote: silver

(Have I voted everyone except II now?)
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 13, 2018, 05:45:28 pm
Space Count as of #364
silverspawn (2): Galzria, Simon Jester
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (4): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (1): EFHW
Galzria (4): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, TwistedArcher
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 13, 2018, 05:46:04 pm
vote: silver, but for defensiveness more than bossiness.

I'm here until deadline.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 13, 2018, 05:46:33 pm
(Have I voted everyone except II now?)

I believe you're still missing silver and yourself.


Everyone's history of who they've voted for so far in D1:
Simon Jester (9): Robz888, Galzria, Skumpy, DatSwan, SpaceAnemone, EFHW, TwistedArcher, silverspawn, Xxraptorslayer96
Robz888 (5): Simon Jester, Galzria, Skumpy, TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96
IguanaIguana (5): Simon Jester, Galzria, EFHW, silverspawn, Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (4): Simon Jester, Galzria, EFHW, Xxraptorslayer96
EFHW (3): SpaceAnemone, TwistedArcher, silverspawn
TwistedArcher (3): Simon Jester, Galzria, EFHW
Skumpy (2): Galzria, TwistedArcher
SpaceAnemone (2): Simon Jester, silverspawn
gkrieg (2): Simon Jester, Skumpy
Xxraptorslayer96 (2): Simon Jester, EFHW
Galzria (1): silverspawn
DatSwan (1): Simon Jester
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 13, 2018, 05:46:59 pm
gkrieg's going to vote Simon because I'm not.

I don't know why you think I'm going to vote for Simon just because you aren't going to vote for him.

vote: Simon

So, uhm, why are you voting me?

Between you and galz, your wagon is townier.

...am I crazy?



Also, gone 30 minutes before deadline. 99% won't be back in time.

I mean, yeah, I saw that; it's a little funny. But saying someone is going to do something for X reason before they have themselves decided what they are going to do is arrogant in a not-so-nice way so I think his response was totally justified.

Was I that arrogant? I'm sorry if I was, but I was playing out the scenario I expected, and I didn't expect to see him voting where I was.

On Galz's post on ss not voting for me: It's called a coalition. I'm glad it's done well for me. Not sure why the scumslip discussion makes you focused on why ss isn't voting for me, as opposed to not voting for Simon.

Despite all that, where you pull out like 15 pieces of evidence, I'm still lost as to why you continue to ignore the most interesting post of all:

you know what, you're right! I didn't think this far.

Ok, skumpy, how about we don't vote for each other until day 3?

It matters because there is no "coalition" in the game that should keep one player from voting for another if the first honestly believes that the second SCUMslipped - that is, gave something away that was evidence of being scum - which is what SS ended on with "slightly scummy for the scumslip" - it's either a thing, or it isn't - he's saying that, yes, in fact, the scumslip IS a thing - but he's using your "coalition" to avoid voting for you over it - he's pushing a scum narrative on you without taking responsibility, something he's done a lot of.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 13, 2018, 05:48:10 pm
Here until deadline as well btw
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: LaLight on August 13, 2018, 05:52:34 pm
What do you feel?

Vote Count 1.10


silverspawn (3): Galzria, Simon Jester, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (4): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13
Galzria (4): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in ~1 hour.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 13, 2018, 05:53:25 pm
I don't buy some big pieces of Galz's case on silver. I think Galz is just not really reading silver's comments in as Bayesian a sense as I think silver means them.

For example, the fact that I could point out a very tenuous scumslip gives a very slightly higher likelihood of them being scum in town!silver's eyes than would the same situation if there wasn't even any super-tenuous evidence. That holds even if you think there's only a 0.01% chance of the language used having arisen because of scum-QT conversation. It really doesn't have to be an is-or-isn't thing for any of that reasoning to work, and silver can be pretty sure I'm nuts for my observation and still take it a tiny bit into account.

PPE 3
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 13, 2018, 05:54:00 pm
It matters because there is no "coalition" in the game that should keep one player from voting for another if the first honestly believes that the second SCUMslipped - that is, gave something away that was evidence of being scum - which is what SS ended on with "slightly scummy for the scumslip" - it's either a thing, or it isn't - he's saying that, yes, in fact, the scumslip IS a thing - but he's using your "coalition" to avoid voting for you over it - he's pushing a scum narrative on you without taking responsibility, something he's done a lot of.

Except my scumslip would've implicated Simon as well. So if ss truly thought it was a scumslip, he would say something like "Scumslip there, but since I can't vote Skumpy, I'll vote Simon". This is exactly what I did in the post where I voted TA, except it was on something more arbitrary than a scumslip.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 13, 2018, 05:56:43 pm
I don't love the silver case at all. In my eyes, it's a bunch of stuff that doesn't necessarily strike me as scummy. It's not necessarily towny, either, but it really reads like Galz is trying to paint every single post by silver as scummy to meet his conclusion. It doesn't read genuine at all.

If Galz is town, he has no idea what silver is. In his case, he reads basically every single post by silver in the worst possible light. This reads like someone trying to move to paint someone as scummy, and letting the conclusion lead the evidence, rather than the other way around.

Also, let's look at this vote count:

What do you feel?

Vote Count 1.10


silverspawn (3): Galzria, Simon Jester, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (4): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13
Galzria (4): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in ~1 hour.


Simon and Galzria, the two main lynch candidates up until the silver case, aren't voting for each other! They're both moving to get a third wagon going.

I'm fine with either Simon or Galzria, and I prefer Galz. That case on silver just reads so incredibly disingenous to me.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 13, 2018, 05:58:54 pm
Really, it's so incredibly odd for Galzria and Simon to not be voting for each other. If I'm town, D1 I'm voting for ANYONE if they're the alternate wagon. I don't care how big a town read I have on them, it's D1 and it's a shot in the dark. The fact that Galz and Simon are the two largest wagons, and are both voting for a third wagon, silver, rather than for each other, is setting off enormous alarms in my head.

Silver has shot way up on my town list as a result of this
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 13, 2018, 06:00:06 pm
I don't love the silver case at all. In my eyes, it's a bunch of stuff that doesn't necessarily strike me as scummy. It's not necessarily towny, either, but it really reads like Galz is trying to paint every single post by silver as scummy to meet his conclusion. It doesn't read genuine at all.

If Galz is town, he has no idea what silver is. In his case, he reads basically every single post by silver in the worst possible light. This reads like someone trying to move to paint someone as scummy, and letting the conclusion lead the evidence, rather than the other way around.

Also, let's look at this vote count:

What do you feel?

Vote Count 1.10


silverspawn (3): Galzria, Simon Jester, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (4): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13
Galzria (4): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in ~1 hour.


Simon and Galzria, the two main lynch candidates up until the silver case, aren't voting for each other! They're both moving to get a third wagon going.

I'm fine with either Simon or Galzria, and I prefer Galz. That case on silver just reads so incredibly disingenous to me.

I didn't include or even point to over half of his posts. Most of his posts are null. Your complaint is that there is a lot of evidence to support my read, and you're trying to spin it that I'm simply calling every post out negatively with no real reason to do so, which is simply untrue.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 13, 2018, 06:02:36 pm
Really, it's so incredibly odd for Galzria and Simon to not be voting for each other. If I'm town, D1 I'm voting for ANYONE if they're the alternate wagon. I don't care how big a town read I have on them, it's D1 and it's a shot in the dark. The fact that Galz and Simon are the two largest wagons, and are both voting for a third wagon, silver, rather than for each other, is setting off enormous alarms in my head.

Silver has shot way up on my town list as a result of this

I don't town read Simon. Never have. Never stated to do so. I've scum read SS for some time though, and promised a case on him that I simply didn't have time to post earlier. The fact that it's come at the end of the day when the wagon on me was created in my absence is beyond my control. I was very clear that if making a wagon on SS was a thing that is too late to happen, then so be it, and I'll vote for Simon. But I would much rather push my scum read while I have the chance to do so, then resign myself to a lynch I have no opinion on just to save myself.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 13, 2018, 06:02:43 pm
I definitely want to lynch Galz after that case. I think he's scum desperately scrambling to get another wagon going, and using every post he can and painting it in the most malicious light to get silver to look as scummy as possible.

If he's town, it's just such a sloppy case, that still takes a conclusion (silver = scum), and tries to go back and find evidence to paint it that way, and I don't think that's likely coming from town!Galz. I think town!Galz jumps on Simon here rather than making that weird case on silver.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 13, 2018, 06:06:16 pm
I don't love the silver case at all. In my eyes, it's a bunch of stuff that doesn't necessarily strike me as scummy. It's not necessarily towny, either, but it really reads like Galz is trying to paint every single post by silver as scummy to meet his conclusion. It doesn't read genuine at all.

If Galz is town, he has no idea what silver is. In his case, he reads basically every single post by silver in the worst possible light. This reads like someone trying to move to paint someone as scummy, and letting the conclusion lead the evidence, rather than the other way around.

Also, let's look at this vote count:

What do you feel?

Vote Count 1.10


silverspawn (3): Galzria, Simon Jester, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (4): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13
Galzria (4): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in ~1 hour.


Simon and Galzria, the two main lynch candidates up until the silver case, aren't voting for each other! They're both moving to get a third wagon going.

I'm fine with either Simon or Galzria, and I prefer Galz. That case on silver just reads so incredibly disingenous to me.

I didn't include or even point to over half of his posts. Most of his posts are null. Your complaint is that there is a lot of evidence to support my read, and you're trying to spin it that I'm simply calling every post out negatively with no real reason to do so, which is simply untrue.

Oh come on. Some posts are so null that you can't possibly get scum reads from them, and yet you're painting them in the worst possible light to further your case. You're telling me that you're really getting a scum read from the following quotes, and how you're quoting them really fed into your analysis before determining that you think silver is spawn? I call BS -- the following interpretations read extremely fake to me. You're just simply painting silver in the worst possible light.
Quote from: Galzria
Simon seems so scummy to me that I'm beginning to think it's not an alignment think but a tone thing.

"Dude over here is scummy... but you didn't hear it from me!"

-
I super duper strongly disagree that only scum cares about scumslips. I think town cares more about scumslips, generally.

This doesn't seem like one to me either, but I wouldn't disount it completely.

"This probably isn't a scumslip... but it could be!"

-
That's a stupid vote. My instinct is to vote you in return but I don't think it actually makes you scummy.

"You deserve to be voted for your post... but I don't wanna be the one to do it!"

-
ok. vote: EFHW is as good as any.

I can't remember any game in which she was lynched early. Let's see what some day1 pressure does.

"Let's get and EFHW wagon going!..."

-
Also unvote I don't like the EFHW wagon. It has basically no justification and picked up too quickly.

The people who jumped on it are where I would look for scum now. Ironically, that's iguana. But then he changed. The others are raptor and simon.

vote: simon

"That was a scummy wagon on EFHW. I need to make sure to spin this to other people before it comes back to me for jumping on it with Iguana"

Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 13, 2018, 06:06:47 pm
I definitely want to lynch Galz after that case. I think he's scum desperately scrambling to get another wagon going, and using every post he can and painting it in the most malicious light to get silver to look as scummy as possible.

If he's town, it's just such a sloppy case, that still takes a conclusion (silver = scum), and tries to go back and find evidence to paint it that way, and I don't think that's likely coming from town!Galz. I think town!Galz jumps on Simon here rather than making that weird case on silver.

The only one scrambling out of the blue right now is you, TA.

Scum!Galz far less reason to make some weird third hour play at SS over just voting for Simon than Town!Galz does. Scum!Galz already has an out, without having to do anything. He can lynch any other player and not care. Town!Galz actually wants to lynch scum, and will pursue his preferred lynch as long as it's viable to do so.

And again, I've debunked your claim:

"and using every post he can and painting it in the most malicious light to get silver to look as scummy as possible."

as simply not true. Fake News.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 13, 2018, 06:07:33 pm
You could take anyone's posts and use language like that to spin a towny or a scummy narrative. That doesn't mean that it's a good case, and it just reads very very fake to me.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 13, 2018, 06:08:14 pm
Ugh are we really using "fake news" here in mafia games? OK, time to log off, that's absurd and I am so unhappy that that's bleeding into f.ds. Time to go cooldown
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 13, 2018, 06:11:44 pm
At the market. Be back at a computer with 15 to spare.

Will switch if u have to. Bother seem like worse wagons than Simon still tho
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 13, 2018, 06:12:05 pm
I agree with Space and TA about Galz's case in that he is choosing to view things in one arbitrary way. My thought, though, was that scum!galz would have just voted for simon. TA's theory requires both Galz and Simon to be scum, which feels like a stretch on D1. But it is true Galz is doing a last minute diversion to a third wagon on Day 1, when no one's cases are likely to be any good. My scumreads today have been silver, TA and Space. Galz is attacking silver; TA and Space jump in to defend him. I doubt very much that I have found the scum team,  but I'll stick with my reads for now. Long way of saying I considered the arguments against Galz's case and am staying on silver.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 13, 2018, 06:13:24 pm
Really, it's so incredibly odd for Galzria and Simon to not be voting for each other. If I'm town, D1 I'm voting for ANYONE if they're the alternate wagon. I don't care how big a town read I have on them, it's D1 and it's a shot in the dark. The fact that Galz and Simon are the two largest wagons, and are both voting for a third wagon, silver, rather than for each other, is setting off enormous alarms in my head.

Silver has shot way up on my town list as a result of this

It is a valid point somewhat but it haven't been a very productive D1 and I wanted this case earlier to have better wagons as alternative to mine. I don't like a galz-lynch very much, it was a LALL-choice (and I rather pick Robz), you seems townie now and I don't want it anymore. Silver is very much null but of the active players he has been the least helpful and is the lynch with highest chance catching scum as it is right now. I have trouble explaining town!ss behaviour this day and I rather voting who I think is scum than doing something out of self-preservation, I don't care much if it means that my lynch becomes inevitable, I think it is still the right thing to do.     

ppe
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 13, 2018, 06:13:45 pm
Silver was the second-most-prolific poster when I made my reads list before, so it's not surprising that there are things he's said that can be taken against him.

The thing I noted to myself about what he'd written was that he said at #144 that he didn't have any scumreads yet, even though he'd already said some things were scummy. The rest of his narrative seemed to say that he'd had a scumread on Simon that he'd concluded was too scummy to be scum", so it had faded. But that's not the same as no scumreads yet.

I'm still not interested in a silver wagon, even though that's practically a scumslip by my standards ;-)

PPE 6+
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 13, 2018, 06:22:48 pm
am here. catching up with the last page.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 13, 2018, 06:23:52 pm
I don't really like the case on silver.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 13, 2018, 06:26:00 pm
I don't believe Galz not voting Simon is a sign of scum scrambling to not bus, that's way too extreme, and furthermore, we didn't get 2 wagons right. That's preposterous. This attempt to divert the wagon with an hour to spare really doesn't strike me much one way or the other. ss isn't going to go through, I think his vote's ending up on Simon eventually. I think scum!Galz knows that, I think town!Galz suspects that.

The case on ss isn't awful, scum usually likes to look reasonable without looking committal. It's arbitrary, but so is everything D1. Honest answer, I don't really have enough time to digest it all, though there are some things I've already indicated that stand out.

I'll be gone very soon, and I don't think I've heard enough to get me to change my vote. Also, I'm not voting ss in the first place, as I said long ago. If you can put together 8 votes, more power to you. It wouldn't be the worst lynch, not by a mile. But I don't see it happening.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 13, 2018, 06:30:09 pm
I agree with Space and TA about Galz's case in that he is choosing to view things in one arbitrary way. My thought, though, was that scum!galz would have just voted for simon. TA's theory requires both Galz and Simon to be scum, which feels like a stretch on D1. But it is true Galz is doing a last minute diversion to a third wagon on Day 1, when no one's cases are likely to be any good. My scumreads today have been silver, TA and Space. Galz is attacking silver; TA and Space jump in to defend him. I doubt very much that I have found the scum team,  but I'll stick with my reads for now. Long way of saying I considered the arguments against Galz's case and am staying on silver.

It may very well be that I'm looking for things and finding them scummy - that's kind of the point of playing. I have stayed up to date in thread, I have the entire day. As the day went on, I developed a scum read on a player, that read continued to grow stronger, and by far is the biggest scum read that I have. So in making a case on them, feeling them more likely scum than anyone else at this point, I go back and re-read them looking for what I feel to be supporting evidence. That doesn't make me right, and it doesn't mean the actions of the accused cannot come from town instead of scum. It means that due to some posts by SS, I think he's scum, I would prefer to lynch him, and I've used his posts to explain why he reads scummy to me. One could argue that those same posts read townie to them - and I've seen that. Literally someone makes a post, and the two posts immediately following it are from two different players: one quoting and saying it's a townie post, and the other quoting and saying it's a scummy post. Maybe those posts read townie to other people... but they don't read townie to me, so I have absolutely no problem using them to make a case here.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 13, 2018, 06:34:45 pm
All that said, 28 minutes to deadline, and I doubt there's enough support to make the lynch go through - Skumpy's right about that. Even with 3 on right now, if the lizard flipped, the swan flipped, and even if Skumpy flipped, that's 6, not 7. TA, Space, SS (duh) and Gkrieg don't seem interested in voting there. Raptor is gone. That only leaves Robz, and we're rolling the dice on him even showing up.

So yes, I'll likely have to end up voting Simon. I'm fine with that. I said earlier that an attempt to lynch SS may be too late - but that regardless I wanted the case and the read out there. If I'm lynched or die at night, you'll at least know that the read was genuine.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 13, 2018, 06:35:58 pm
damn, need to go. Leaving my vote on Galz after all. Vote: Galzria
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 13, 2018, 06:37:13 pm
Unfortunate.

Vote: Simon
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 06:37:49 pm
Anyone have a vote count?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 13, 2018, 06:38:16 pm
Anyone have a vote count?

Simon and I are at 5, EFHW is on SS, Raptor is on EFHW.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 13, 2018, 06:39:18 pm
Intent to vote simon
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 13, 2018, 06:39:51 pm
vote: Simon L-1
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 13, 2018, 06:40:38 pm
~case~

Ok, two points about that

Quote
"This probably isn't a scumslip... but it could be!"

Well... yeah. That's, like, obviously true.

I'm picking this out because it's similar to a bunch of things you accuse me of, which boil down to saying that things are kind of gray. And you're making that sound scummy.

But isn't what I said about the slip just obviously true from the PoV of anyone  who's town and not skumpy? "It's probably not a slip but it could be" Ė well, duh. What else could you think about it?

So yeah, I don't think being nuanced is a bad thing.

Two:
Quote
"Let's get and EFHW wagon going!..."

Quote
"That was a scummy wagon on EFHW. I need to make sure to spin this to other people before it comes back to me for jumping on it with Iguana"

You could easily interpret this in the opposite way. In fact, it seems to me like this is more plausibly interpreted in the opposite way. You're accusing me of being non-commital and throwing suspicion. I voted for EFHW, started a wagon, then changed my mind even though EFHW looked like a plausible lynch at that point. Isn't that the opposite of what you're describing?

The fact that you're pretending like this fits your theory doesn't speak well of the case I think. The strength of a theory is in what it can't predict. If anything I do fits your theory, it has no predictive power. An honest reading of my posts should have realized that what I did with EFHW doesn't actually fit at all.

Also, do you think EFHW is in fact town? Then why did I abandon the lynch? Didn't I put myself in more danger?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 06:41:36 pm
In the end, I think simon is probably town :/

He's voted everyone except for me and gkrieg. So if he's town, he's guaranteed to have voted at least two scum, and likely the whole team if gkrieg isn't scum. And he did make every single one of those votes like he meant it.

I'm kinda surprised to be defending him right now, but I actually think it's stupid to be lynching an active player with a decent change of just being a ramble/scramble newb!town.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 13, 2018, 06:42:21 pm
I don't buy some big pieces of Galz's case on silver. I think Galz is just not really reading silver's comments in as Bayesian a sense as I think silver means them.

This is beautifully put.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 13, 2018, 06:44:00 pm
Still here, don't know when my meeting is supposed to start.

In the end, I think simon is probably town :/

He's voted everyone except for me and gkrieg. So if he's town, he's guaranteed to have voted at least two scum, and likely the whole team if gkrieg isn't scum. And he did make every single one of those votes like he meant it.

I'm kinda surprised to be defending him right now, but I actually think it's stupid to be lynching an active player with a decent change of just being a ramble/scramble newb!town.

Well put.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: LaLight on August 13, 2018, 06:44:07 pm
What do you feel?

Vote Count 1.11


EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (6): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13, Galzria, EFHW
Galzria (5): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher, Simon Jester

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in 16 minutes.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 06:44:15 pm
When we lynch the active players D1, we allow scum to lurk to victory every single game and also eliminate the players who are the most fun to play with. This is lame.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 13, 2018, 06:46:05 pm
In the end, I think simon is probably town :/

He's voted everyone except for me and gkrieg. So if he's town, he's guaranteed to have voted at least two scum, and likely the whole team if gkrieg isn't scum. And he did make every single one of those votes like he meant it.

I'm kinda surprised to be defending him right now, but I actually think it's stupid to be lynching an active player with a decent change of just being a ramble/scramble newb!town.
We very likely have 2 town wagons.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 13, 2018, 06:47:21 pm
When we lynch the active players D1, we allow scum to lurk to victory every single game and also eliminate the players who are the most fun to play with. This is lame.

Assume we're both town for a moment. Whatever, that's honestly common D1. How do you analyze the wagons? Which would scum have preference on? If EFHW is town here, then all parties willing to attempt the SS wagon were town. What does that say about the people trying to prevent it? Would scum fight the creation of a third town wagon?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 13, 2018, 06:47:31 pm
Ok, caught up.

I don't share your pressimism. I feel pretty good about simon, and his behavior under pressure only makes that more true.


I like this case/compilation. I have observed the same thing, but to much extent just thought of it as silvers playstile. Being a bit aggressive and harsch and that it isn't alignment-indecative, but seeing at collected like this it's a bit damning. I mean, I can take that he calls my vote stupid and don't engage in the scumslip- discussion but he has apparently done similar things all day here.

I don't care if I become the lynch because of it, I don't want to lynch Galz now. vote: silver

(Have I voted everyone except II now?)

This gives me a deja-vu of how I behaved the first time I was scum (and was getting found out quickly) in ASoIaF mafia.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 13, 2018, 06:47:47 pm
In the end, I think simon is probably town :/

He's voted everyone except for me and gkrieg. So if he's town, he's guaranteed to have voted at least two scum, and likely the whole team if gkrieg isn't scum. And he did make every single one of those votes like he meant it.

I'm kinda surprised to be defending him right now, but I actually think it's stupid to be lynching an active player with a decent change of just being a ramble/scramble newb!town.
We very likely have 2 town wagons.

assuming you are town, I find that unlikely.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 13, 2018, 06:47:56 pm
When we lynch the active players D1, we allow scum to lurk to victory every single game and also eliminate the players who are the most fun to play with. This is lame.

Assume we're both town for a moment. Whatever, that's honestly common D1. How do you analyze the wagons? Which would scum have preference on? If EFHW is town here, then all parties willing to attempt the SS wagon were town. What does that say about the people trying to prevent it? Would scum fight the creation of a third town wagon?

This.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 13, 2018, 06:48:04 pm
I don't buy some big pieces of Galz's case on silver. I think Galz is just not really reading silver's comments in as Bayesian a sense as I think silver means them.

This is beautifully put.

Thanks! Now don't let me and my defence down by being scum after all, k? :-)

In related news, it's so much easier to get a picture of other players' tone and thinking having hung out with them IRL! That's just you and gkrieg for me this game, though..

PPE: more every time I try to hit "post"...
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 06:48:20 pm
In the end, I think simon is probably town :/

He's voted everyone except for me and gkrieg. So if he's town, he's guaranteed to have voted at least two scum, and likely the whole team if gkrieg isn't scum. And he did make every single one of those votes like he meant it.

I'm kinda surprised to be defending him right now, but I actually think it's stupid to be lynching an active player with a decent change of just being a ramble/scramble newb!town.
We very likely have 2 town wagons.

If you think they are both town, then vote for the player who you would expect to be better at tricking you! You have RECENTLY CONCLUDED GAMES where you refused to vote scum!Galz because you thought he was towny!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 13, 2018, 06:49:32 pm
Do we have anyone who is actually ready to hammer? We only have 10 minutes left.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 13, 2018, 06:49:59 pm
Do we have anyone who is actually ready to hammer? We only have 10 minutes left.

It would have to be II, Robz, Skumpy, or someone... TA I think?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 06:50:23 pm
Do we have anyone who is actually ready to hammer? We only have 10 minutes left.

 >:( maybe I'll flip a friggin coin on whether this goes to no lynch  >:(
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 13, 2018, 06:50:40 pm
Do we have anyone who is actually ready to hammer? We only have 10 minutes left.

It would have to be II, Robz, Skumpy, or someone... TA I think?

TA left.
Skumpy hasn't been here
Robz hasn't been here


So pretty much it is if II is gonna do it.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 13, 2018, 06:50:52 pm
I don't buy some big pieces of Galz's case on silver. I think Galz is just not really reading silver's comments in as Bayesian a sense as I think silver means them.

This is beautifully put.

Thanks! Now don't let me and my defence down by being scum after all, k? :-)

I won't.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 13, 2018, 06:50:56 pm
In the end, I think simon is probably town :/

He's voted everyone except for me and gkrieg. So if he's town, he's guaranteed to have voted at least two scum, and likely the whole team if gkrieg isn't scum. And he did make every single one of those votes like he meant it.

I'm kinda surprised to be defending him right now, but I actually think it's stupid to be lynching an active player with a decent change of just being a ramble/scramble newb!town.
We very likely have 2 town wagons.

If you think they are both town, then vote for the player who you would expect to be better at tricking you! You have RECENTLY CONCLUDED GAMES where you refused to vote scum!Galz because you thought he was towny!
Yes, I did think about that. I'm still here in case I need to switch.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 13, 2018, 06:51:46 pm
Do we have anyone who is actually ready to hammer? We only have 10 minutes left.

It would have to be II, Robz, Skumpy, or someone... TA I think?

TA left.
Skumpy hasn't been here
Robz hasn't been here


So pretty much it is if II is gonna do it.

I'm here sadly. Though I'm agreeing with Iguana more and more.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 13, 2018, 06:51:52 pm
Do we have anyone who is actually ready to hammer? We only have 10 minutes left.

 >:( maybe I'll flip a friggin coin on whether this goes to no lynch  >:(

no-lynch is nuts. If anything we'd make a switch happen.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 06:52:10 pm
EFHW, I am appealing to you right now. SWITCH, so that I don't have to. Please
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 13, 2018, 06:52:23 pm
Do we have anyone who is actually ready to hammer? We only have 10 minutes left.

 >:( maybe I'll flip a friggin coin on whether this goes to no lynch  >:(

Are you definitely that sure that Simon is town?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 06:52:40 pm
Do we have anyone who is actually ready to hammer? We only have 10 minutes left.

 >:( maybe I'll flip a friggin coin on whether this goes to no lynch  >:(

Are you definitely that sure that Simon is town?

Of course not!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 13, 2018, 06:53:04 pm
vote: Galz

Ppe: begging from ii
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 13, 2018, 06:53:14 pm
I like simon way more than galz. Don't switch.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 13, 2018, 06:53:24 pm
ugh no
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 13, 2018, 06:53:40 pm
I will not claim, fwiw
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 13, 2018, 06:53:54 pm
right now we just in the same spot

Get you vote back on Simon

At this point I would be half ok with speeding wagoning freekin II
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 13, 2018, 06:54:12 pm
EFHW, I am appealing to you right now. SWITCH, so that I don't have to. Please

Even if EFHW switches, who's the hammer on Galz? It's currently 6 to Simon, 5 to Galz, and Raptor not here and not on either wagon...
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 13, 2018, 06:54:25 pm
Isn't coming out with a case on someone 2 hours before the deadline a really odd thing for scum to do?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 13, 2018, 06:54:33 pm
EFHW, I am appealing to you right now. SWITCH, so that I don't have to. Please

Even if EFHW switches, who's the hammer on Galz? It's currently 6 to Simon, 5 to Galz, and Raptor not here and not on either wagon...

.. and I missed EFHW's PPE.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 13, 2018, 06:54:50 pm
I like simon way more than galz. Don't switch.
Iguana was making some sense about Simon
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 06:55:09 pm
They're both town : (
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 06:55:23 pm
Galz, will you claim VT or PR?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: LaLight on August 13, 2018, 06:55:33 pm
What do you feel?

Vote Count 1.11


EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13, Galzria
Galzria (6): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher, Simon Jester, EFHW

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in 5 minutes.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 13, 2018, 06:55:41 pm
Isn't coming out with a case on someone 2 hours before the deadline a really odd thing for scum to do?

No. You were never getting lynched.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 13, 2018, 06:56:03 pm
Isn't coming out with a case on someone 2 hours before the deadline a really odd thing for scum to do?

No. You were never getting lynched.

exactly!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 13, 2018, 06:56:09 pm
They're both town : (

Yup. Still trust the wagon on Galz more than the one on Simon.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Galzria on August 13, 2018, 06:56:19 pm
I like simon way more than galz. Don't switch.
Iguana was making some sense about Simon

We're both bad lynches, but what can one do?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 13, 2018, 06:56:31 pm
They're both town : (

If so, then what's wrong with leaving the strong and experienced player in the game to give town a better chance?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 13, 2018, 06:56:41 pm
as town you want to do it because you honestly believe in it. as scum ther'es no reaosn.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 06:56:58 pm
They're both town : (

If so, then what's wrong with leaving the strong and experienced player in the game to give town a better chance?

HE'S THE BETTER LIAR!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 06:57:15 pm
Vote: Simon
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 13, 2018, 06:57:29 pm
They're both town : (

If so, then what's wrong with leaving the strong and experienced player in the game to give town a better chance?
Because maybe not.

as town you want to do it because you honestly believe in it. as scum ther'es no reaosn.
It can be a push for towniness on the line. Clearly you believe it. It's all WIFOM anyhow, let's be honest.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 06:57:45 pm
Someone else switch
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 13, 2018, 06:57:46 pm
Galz had no interaction D1 that we can use out side of SS and he is (no offense) going to be a stronger player as the game continues.

Other wagon had tons of interactions to look back on.

Assuming they are both town (for those saying it) - Simon is the WAy to go!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 13, 2018, 06:57:54 pm
Ok, hammer simon in the next minute or I hammer galz
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 13, 2018, 06:57:58 pm
Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: LaLight on August 13, 2018, 06:58:02 pm
What do you feel?

Vote Count 1.12


EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (6): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13, Galzria, iguanaiguana
Galzria (5): Robz888, Skumpy, Twistedarcher, Simon Jester, EFHW

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in 3 minutes.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Swowl on August 13, 2018, 06:58:17 pm
II just switched. Someone hammer simon!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: silverspawn on August 13, 2018, 06:59:13 pm
1 minute left.. vote: galz
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 06:59:26 pm
Vote: Galz
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: iguanaiguana on August 13, 2018, 06:59:40 pm
That was the worst ever
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 13, 2018, 06:59:49 pm
Sorry, just missed
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 13, 2018, 06:59:54 pm
vote: galz

Just in case.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 13, 2018, 06:59:58 pm
Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: LaLight on August 13, 2018, 07:00:03 pm
THREAD LOCKED
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: LaLight on August 13, 2018, 07:01:12 pm
What do you feel now?

Vote Count 1.final


EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (4): SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13, Galzria
Galzria (7): Robz888, Skumpy, Twistedarcher, Simon Jester, EFHW, silverspawn, iguanaiguana

With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: LaLight on August 13, 2018, 07:05:08 pm
You remembered your days in the kindergarten. Lots of children, grownups trying to tell you what to do, what not to do. You were always a good kid, you never offended little animals, you were always respectful to others. But you got yelled and yelled on and on. "Don't play your music when I am trying to sleep!" "Those pictures belong to the trash!" "Your poems are better never been heard of!"

You realized that was when you lost the ability to be Inspired.

Galzria was Inspired, Town 1-shot Roleblocker.

Have a good night. It will end in 46 hours, 15th of August at 5 pm FT.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: LaLight on August 15, 2018, 05:05:52 pm
Here was a flavor text about how you can not be happy any more and that iIguanaiguana, the Town Mason, was killed.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 15, 2018, 05:25:09 pm
Wow that sucks.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 15, 2018, 05:35:56 pm
Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...

This is incredibly scummy.

vote: Skumpy
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 15, 2018, 05:38:01 pm
Iguana's partner should claim in their first post.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 15, 2018, 05:39:10 pm
Iguana's dead. Shocker. I'd imagine the other mason claims, but I could be persuaded otherwise.

Simon's obviously unknown, but I'm still agreeing with Iguana posthumously, it's very pointed to a dual-town wagon. And if it's not, there's not many possibilities for the scum that's not bussing (though Raptor's activity the day of the lynch complicates matters).

@Skumpy What do my posts have to do with your voting TA?

I enjoy saying cryptic remarks, and explaining later.


Here's where I'm at right now.

I find Iguana very townie at this point. I haven't played with him much before, but he's active, and that counts for something. More than something. And furthermore, I like his posts, and I like the way he's playing. There's a lot he has going for him.

Now there's 2 possibilities.

1. I'm way, way wrong, and Iguana is in fact scum. I don't believe it now. But if it's true, this game will not go very smoothly.

2. I'm right, and Iguana is town. Iguana has posted so much at this point that people surely have to be townreading the lizard, right? No! Because by my count, only 3 have. And when you're scum, you want to be posting correct townreads D1 to gain credibility, and preferably on the most townie people. If Iguana is town, 3 other people here know this. I have to think that one is going to take notice of his talkative play and give him town status, or at least townie. Which doesn't leave many possibilities.

Both of those things together, it's seems to me highly likely there's a scum in {Iguana, ss, TA, Skumpy}. There's already an 86% chance of that, but whatever. And of that group, there's one I can't vote for, there's one I won't vote for, and there's one I'd be happy to vote for but would rather stick around longer because I pity it. So therefore, TA it is.

So that's me. Wrong? Possibly. Logical? I'd like to think so.

This + scum probably wants somebody on the Galz wagon, I have to do a Vote: TA.

PPE: gkrieg. Yay.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 15, 2018, 05:45:33 pm
Iguana's partner should claim in their first post.

I've never played with masons, i could believe in it.

Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...

This is incredibly scummy.

vote: Skumpy

Yeah, yeah, I know. Gotta type something in before the day ends, that's what comes to mind. I'm not really inclined to talk about it, but:
1) Why EFHW didn't vote in the 90 seconds I gave her, I don't know.
2) If I don't vote in the last minute, I look really scummy. So of course I'm going to vote after those 90 seconds.

That post was honest, I had the vote ready, hit preview, well never mind then. The panic was unnecessary.

I'm expecting the wagon on me pretty quick here, regardless. It's still as wrong as ever, nothing's changed. Ask me anything you want, all you're getting is straight up truthbombs.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 15, 2018, 05:49:20 pm
Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...

This is incredibly scummy.

vote: Skumpy

Note that I took 6 minutes to respond to 2 things just now. I don't ever post rushed things, I always proofread like 3 times and still let typos bleed through. So there's a very good reason why my posts look scummy close to deadline when I have to rush them. I already play with admittedly one of the scummiest tones of anyone in the game, I sometimes have had to make efforts as town to not look scummy.

Ok, floor is everybody else's.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 15, 2018, 06:09:38 pm
Also, for those who didn't read back after Galz's flip to see what the setup now sits at:

1-shot Roleblocker -> at least 2 B's = definitely exists a town roleblocker.
Iguana = Mason -> at least 1 M

So scum has at most 3 T's.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 15, 2018, 06:19:19 pm
Here's my breakdown likelihoods of each role independently being in the game:

frb: 1.000000
prb: 1.000000
mas0: 0.985838
pcop: 0.305260
pvig: 0.277856
pdoc: 0.176528
fdoc: 0.168456
fvig: 0.039087
UB: 0.014162
mas: 0.014162
fcop: 0.011046

The "p" is for partial, i.e. one-shot, and the "f" for full. The "mas0" is the mason case where there was a single "M" roll leading to conversion from UB to Mason, and the plain "mas" is the kind that comes from at least three M rolls.

This is based on an evaluation of the setup that I did ages ago. I'm confused about pdoc looking more likely that fdoc, though.. I need to check that out, given that pdoc should only happen in games with fdoc already present. But I'm assuming these numbers are broadly right at least.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 15, 2018, 06:24:37 pm
Ah, no, we're good. The unaccompanied pdocs come from "E" rolls :-)
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 15, 2018, 06:31:05 pm
Here's my breakdown likelihoods of each role independently being in the game:

frb: 1.000000
prb: 1.000000
mas0: 0.985838
pcop: 0.305260
pvig: 0.277856
pdoc: 0.176528
fdoc: 0.168456
fvig: 0.039087
UB: 0.014162
mas: 0.014162
fcop: 0.011046

The "p" is for partial, i.e. one-shot, and the "f" for full. The "mas0" is the mason case where there was a single "M" roll leading to conversion from UB to Mason, and the plain "mas" is the kind that comes from at least three M rolls.

This is based on an evaluation of the setup that I did ages ago. I'm confused about pdoc looking more likely that fdoc, though.. I need to check that out, given that pdoc should only happen in games with fdoc already present. But I'm assuming these numbers are broadly right at least.

How do you get these numbers, if I may ask?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 15, 2018, 06:56:11 pm
Should the other Mason claim? Possibly. A Day 2 IC is decent.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 15, 2018, 07:08:18 pm
How do you get these numbers, if I may ask?

I wrote some code the first time I played this setup that produced a list of possible setups and their relative likelihoods. All that code saved was a list of lists of roles, and a vector of probabilities to go with them, which is what I used to get these, just by summing over probabilities of sets that contain all the known roles, and then each other role in turn.

If you're asking how I got the original vector, the script for that pretty much brute forces all possible letter combinations with their respective likelihoods, then gathers things together more tidily so that different rolls that would result in the same game setup are grouped together. What the code doesn't do is record all possible letter roll combinations that got there... I remember adding that into the version I modified for another 9+ setup, and it being a bit of a pain, so I resisted the urge to retrofit it to this one!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 15, 2018, 07:18:22 pm
How do you get these numbers, if I may ask?

I wrote some code the first time I played this setup that produced a list of possible setups and their relative likelihoods. All that code saved was a list of lists of roles, and a vector of probabilities to go with them, which is what I used to get these, just by summing over probabilities of sets that contain all the known roles, and then each other role in turn.

If you're asking how I got the original vector, the script for that pretty much brute forces all possible letter combinations with their respective likelihoods, then gathers things together more tidily so that different rolls that would result in the same game setup are grouped together. What the code doesn't do is record all possible letter roll combinations that got there... I remember adding that into the version I modified for another 9+ setup, and it being a bit of a pain, so I resisted the urge to retrofit it to this one!

I don't think it works quite that nicely here, though it doesn't affect final probabilities that significantly. The 'given that the first role flipped was X and given that the second role flipped was Y' changes things and makes more non-T's more likely.

Should the other Mason claim? Possibly. A Day 2 IC is decent.
And D3 is better, until it gets CC'd. I honestly don't know, just playing devil's advocate.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 15, 2018, 07:19:28 pm
Should the other Mason claim? Possibly. A Day 2 IC is decent.

I guess the other option is to leave them to be a D3 IC and lead some kind of massclaim. D2 is usually too early for that. I suspect the scums are more likely to want to hit the known RB rather than the known mason.

Note that while we know for sure that there's a full RB in the game, there's actually a 0.7% chance of having two of them, so we can't necessarily IC anyone that way.

PPE 1
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 15, 2018, 07:30:37 pm
I don't think it works quite that nicely here, though it doesn't affect final probabilities that significantly. The 'given that the first role flipped was X and given that the second role flipped was Y' changes things and makes more non-T's more likely.

I think what you're saying is that given the new information that we've seen two PRs in two flips, you think we have evidence that there is a high number of PRs in the game. That would certainly be something to consider if the flips we saw were independent of the roles, but that's definitely not the case.It's possible we've just lost PRs early because they had PR-tells that someone on the scumteam read.

It's still correct that the likelihoods I've quoted are the prior probabilities of each roll appearing at least once in the setup LL has rolled for us.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 15, 2018, 07:46:56 pm
Should the other Mason claim? Possibly. A Day 2 IC is decent.

I guess the other option is to leave them to be a D3 IC and lead some kind of massclaim. D2 is usually too early for that. I suspect the scums are more likely to want to hit the known RB rather than the known mason.

Note that while we know for sure that there's a full RB in the game, there's actually a 0.7% chance of having two of them, so we can't necessarily IC anyone that way.

PPE 1

A Day 3 IC is of course better, except that scum can counterclaim a Day 3 IC with greater confidence of success.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 15, 2018, 08:30:05 pm
I don't think it works quite that nicely here, though it doesn't affect final probabilities that significantly. The 'given that the first role flipped was X and given that the second role flipped was Y' changes things and makes more non-T's more likely.

I think what you're saying is that given the new information that we've seen two PRs in two flips, you think we have evidence that there is a high number of PRs in the game. That would certainly be something to consider if the flips we saw were independent of the roles, but that's definitely not the case.It's possible we've just lost PRs early because they had PR-tells that someone on the scumteam read.

It's still correct that the likelihoods I've quoted are the prior probabilities of each roll appearing at least once in the setup LL has rolled for us.

Not sure about that.

It's a little Monty Hall-esque in the sense that if there's a bunch of PR's hiding behind doors, you're more likely to stumble upon them when you start opening doors than if there were fewer. If there are indeed only the 4 known PR's, then it's harder to find them first because there are fewer options to be right, as opposed to 5 or 6. And I do believe in independence, certainly for Galz, and close enough for Iguana. In fact, if anything, super-independent for Galz because not claiming makes me lean more towards VT than PR.

Without much simulation experience admittedly, I'd imagine it would be a bit more accurate to assign specific players roles after the dice rolls, and after seeing flips, narrow down the possibilities to those specifically involving 'Player A was X' and 'Player B was Y'. But that does seem very inefficient and cumbersome, and again, it doesn't changes the probabilities a lot.

Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 16, 2018, 12:45:39 am
I'm vla until Sat, but will try to catch up now.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 16, 2018, 12:51:36 am
I'd rather have an IC today.

Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 16, 2018, 01:00:46 am
A bunch of people haven't posted yet. Silver, raptor, simon, DatSwan, TA.

I don't agree with skumpy's reasoning about looking for scum among people townreading  iguana. It's an interesting idea, but not enough. Was there more on TA motivating your vote?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 16, 2018, 03:15:22 am
OK so before anything - there are back to back Vote Counts labeled as 1.11 and it cost me roughly an hour of my life trying to figure out why I was insane while I went through all of this. Kidding, but not :P but also it is back to back 1.11's.

Ahem...


1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.

2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)

*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*

3) Yes, there has to be a multi-shot RB since Galz flipped 1-Shot RB.

4) Mason should not claim today. Dumb. Math is fun, just do it. In Town's worst case scenario (albeit, given said mason is not lynched or killed), their claim value tomorrow is way more valuable tomorrow than it is today.

5) VCA from yesterday
There are two different ways to look at the actions of yesterday. We now know that Galz was Town (less important), but we also know that II was Town. At the end of the day, there was a lot of non movement, followed by a lot of movement. I need to go and break down how the Galz wagon pick up to begin with piece by piece, but towards the end I have it down. Here where we were are at 1.11:
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (6): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13, Galzria, EFHW
Galzria (5): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher, Simon Jester

We know that Galz and II are Town and that XXR wasn't moving. The day draws very very close to end and no one wants to jump any ship. It would either take 2 people out of SS, Space, Swan, JK, EFHW to hammer Galz... or 1 person out of Robz, II, Skumpy, TA to hammer Simon.

I am going to go ahead and remove myself from my own logic moving forward, feel free to re do it under a difference precedent.
At this point there are two pools of players:
1) The players on Simon [SS, Space, GK, EFHW]
2) The players on Galz [Robz, Skumpy, TA]

From my PoV there are 4 unknowns on 1 wagon, and 3 unknowns on the other. So I find it unlikely... like extremely unlikely... that all three skum are on the same wagon at this point. I am not ready to yet dive into "how many on each" so for now, I am just going with there is at least 1 on each (also the XXR factor to be potentially added in).

At 1.11 - Any of Robz, Skumpy, or TA could of switched onto Simon and hammered them. This obv did not happen. Also not to be forgotten, unknown to the time Town!II could of hammered as well.
At 1.11 - 2 of any out of SS, Space, GK, EFHW could of collectively hammered Town!Galz.

--- Here is the fun part. At this point in time, Robz had been absent with no intent of joining. Also TA had just "had enough" with the False New nonsense and said they were out. So, from any earning town PoV (or skum for that matter), neither of those players were moving.

Pay attention boys and girls, this is where shit gets fun...


My above note is not speculation, getting ahead of that now. Robz had been Semi VLA like the entire game and there was no reason to believe he was to be here at the DL. Even if he "was expected" we are talking about a matter of 16 minutes at this point. I am torn on the TA-bailing thing because I both think that was a weak-ass move but also it makes my skin curl whenever anyone uses the phrase "Fake News". Either way - important note is that assuming from a Town POV - neither of them were coming back.

This leaves exactly one player left capable of hammering Simon - Skumpster.

Then, we have me and SS stating we do not want to go over to Galz, and there is some speculation stuff and whatever you can go and read it yourself... and then... EFHW switches over to Galz (super weakly I might add) due to "Town!II making a good statement".

This flips the wagon. Now it is 1.12 (or 1.11x2)

EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13, Galzria
Galzria (6): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher, Simon Jester, EFHW

So at this point, after the EFHW switch we have a brief period of time in which Galz was L-1 (like less than 3 minutes). Now, what makes it fun is that II switched off onto Simon (but since we know Galz and II were both Town this means about dick). However, when II switches to Galz, it flips the wagon back to Simon L-1 and Galz L-2.
NOWWWWWWW, of the active players, either Skumpy OR EFHW can hammer Simon.

Instead what happens is SS says "if no one hammers Simon in the next minute I will hammer Galz". Then, if they didn't already know, there was an updated VC showing that Galz was L-2, in addition to my statement "Someone hammer Simon". Not to mention the numerous point outs of how the hammer situation was not the same in many messages prior given the switches. Then SS voted anyways. And then of course II hammered which I wasted 2 days of paranoia on.... but they flipped Town.


So here is where I am at. We know II and Galz are Town, and we know who was present and not. We can deal with the present vs the not present later - because whether the not present were skum or town, if skum knew they were not present they would still act accordingly and town would have to do so as well. This obv gives skum the upper hand, but again, we can do better speculation now than on that concept.

I would like to focus that speculation on Simon, SilverSpawn and EFHW.
with one speculation.
If Skum knew that some of the absent players were in fact skum, they would of had to move accordingly (only important if it was a town vs town wagon). But, still to be considered. At the end of it, Simon is probably skum. But the most reliable choice is SS.

Simon was the other major wagon, so I tend to take a lot of that person's actions out of the equasion because good town will do anything to stay alive.

EFHW did the weird switch back and forth thing, which is skummy af and they need to be looked at (and if SS gets lynched and is town it is like 100% efhw)... but, if SS is skum and EFHW is town then EFHW would be choosing between two unknown wagons just trying to push the lynch through.

SS is just skummy as hell. The random "IDK its not hammer hammer", the timing of votes, just like everything. Not to mention conf!Town Galz top skum read.

Vote: SilverSpawn

Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 16, 2018, 03:21:04 am
A bunch of people haven't posted yet. Silver, raptor, simon, DatSwan, TA.

I don't agree with skumpy's reasoning about looking for scum among people townreading  iguana. It's an interesting idea, but not enough. Was there more on TA motivating your vote?

And also I'd imagine there's scum pushing Galz. Not Iguana, not me, I still feel there's evidence pointing away from Simon (I definitely don't feel like scum!Simon wants to deflect from the Galz wagon; could be wrong). So unless no scum was on the main push for Galz, which I suppose is also a possibility, that leaves Robz and TA for me. But I shouldn't be hasty, especially after my D1 performance. There's a lot of day left, and lot of discussion to happen, and I should do a reread of D1. Maybe right now's a good time for that.

 Unvote

I'd rather have an IC today.



If that's the case, is it worth considering having the RB claim as well? Either 2 IC's or we get some 1 v 1's. It would be devastating if we guess wrong on them, could be fantastic if we guess right since either an IC's alive D3 or we have another 1 v 1. I don't know what good a roleblocker does at this point, we're only 1 non-T roll away from a perpetual strongman. There's a lot of things that have to happen right for the roleblock to be effective and buy us an extra day, namely finding the strongman, getting a correct roleblock, and the scum roleblocker not getting in the way of town roleblocker, if that's a thing. That would be amazing if all those things happened; I'm not banking on it. The risky approach is to go with that, the safe approach is to simplify into the endgame. If there are 2 1v1's for the Mason and the RB, and we guess right on 1 but not the other initially, we get 2 correct lynches out of 3 and lose 3 town at night, bringing us down to a 3 v 1, which gives us a reasonable shot. Plus potentially more unclaimed PRs.

So yeah; I guess I'm in favor then of narrowing the lynch pool? I'll wait for everyone else, before I claim (no, my talking is not necessarily indicative of VT), but I'll go on the record with an RB should claim, Mason should claim

Also, Lalight, is there an RB priority order?

PPE: Lots of Swan
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 16, 2018, 03:24:43 am
What is a 'Mason shot'? You know what a mason is....
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 16, 2018, 03:41:46 am
there are no upper cases in my name plx. Let alone 2. it looks so horrible.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 16, 2018, 03:43:27 am
gtg, I read your post, I don't understand how you come from the analysis to the conclusion that I'm scum at all, but I might have misread something. Will read again and comment later.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 16, 2018, 03:48:20 am
Responding to Swan's stuff:

'XXR wasn't moving' - I still want to know why that's the case when he did check in that day. That's still a very important point.

'Only one who could hammer Simon was Skumpster' - Incorrect, because II could, for whatever that's worth.

To be clear about my actions after Iguana flipped: I gave EFHW the chance to go back to her preferred wagon before I made the hammer myself, which I planned to do at :59. Sixty seconds is plenty of time when I have the vote written and I'm hitting preview, though I suppose nobody was aware I was doing that at the time. I'm not going to hold EFHW's non-vote against her as a partner sign with Simon, thats too obvious, and makes little sense when she picked him over Galz at 5-5.

The thing is, Swan: None of that is relevant if Simon is town. Townies want to try to stick to their intended targets and avoid swerving as long as possible until they give in to the 'Chicken Game' and flip. If scum doesn't care who gets lynched, they can easily replicate that behavior. So it's all null. And if Simon is scum, why do you not want to lynch off-wagon? Or on Simon himself? ss certainly stayed on the Simon wagon for a while. Doesn't make him town, especially if Simon is, but it's not a great case against him yet.

there are no upper cases in my name plx. Let alone 2. it looks so horrible.
I've done the same, Swan, don't feel too bad.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: LaLight on August 16, 2018, 04:23:46 am
Also, Lalight, is there an RB priority order?

Scum RB takes priority over town!rb. Town!rbs resolve in an order of making order timewise.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 16, 2018, 04:51:27 am
I should do a reread of D1. Maybe right now's a good time for that.

This didn't happen. Sorry.

If that's the case, is it worth considering having the RB claim as well? Either 2 IC's or we get some 1 v 1's. It would be devastating if we guess wrong on them, could be fantastic if we guess right since either an IC's alive D3 or we have another 1 v 1. I don't know what good a roleblocker does at this point, we're only 1 non-T roll away from a perpetual strongman. There's a lot of things that have to happen right for the roleblock to be effective and buy us an extra day, namely finding the strongman, getting a correct roleblock, and the scum roleblocker not getting in the way of town roleblocker, if that's a thing. That would be amazing if all those things happened; I'm not banking on it. The risky approach is to go with that, the safe approach is to simplify into the endgame. If there are 2 1v1's for the Mason and the RB, and we guess right on 1 but not the other initially, we get 2 correct lynches out of 3 and lose 3 town at night, bringing us down to a 3 v 1, which gives us a reasonable shot. Plus potentially more unclaimed PRs.

So yeah; I guess I'm in favor then of narrowing the lynch pool? I'll wait for everyone else, before I claim (no, my talking is not necessarily indicative of VT), but I'll go on the record with an RB should claim, Mason should claim

Actually, I'm tabling that opinion in the last paragraph for now. I didn't think it through well enough.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 16, 2018, 05:54:38 am
Just writing to say I'm here. Still trying to understand what happened the previous day and how it could be that I'm still alive. That was an odd deadline..
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 16, 2018, 06:17:20 am
Ok I reread it and I still don't understand the argument. I wanted one player to be lynched, I waited until literally less than a minute time left trying to make it happen, then I switched and got the other guy lynched, who was town. So... ???
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 16, 2018, 06:35:41 am
So...

I know it was in fact a town versus town situation yesterday. Before we went for Galz we had a wagon stuck for TA for quite a long time, when it didn't lead anywhere it got switched. I think that was a mistake.

vote: TA

I think I would prefer if the second mason claimed today.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 16, 2018, 09:20:14 am
I think the RB should absolutely not claim at this point.

If that's the case, is it worth considering having the RB claim as well?

I think you might have missed the following:

Note that while we know for sure that there's a full RB in the game, there's actually a 0.7% chance of having two of them, so we can't necessarily IC anyone that way.

... and that's a 0.7% prior probability, so anyone who's convinced we have strong evidence of more town roles than average existing in this game should think that that number will be rather higher in the current posterior distribution.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 16, 2018, 09:48:09 am
Not sure about that.

Um.. how much do you know about Bayesian stuff? The numbers I've posted are from the prior distribution, marginalised over the still-available roles.

Your lack of certainty comes from wanting to turn it into a posterior distribution by inferring something about the number of roles in the game based on the fact that both of the first two flips were town PRs. Yes, that posterior distribution will be an updated version of the prior, but that's not what I'm claiming to have provided.

I really don't think the roles we've seen so far are selected at random from the pool of townies, because in II's case, he was almost certainly killed for being active, engaged and widely town-read, and he may well not have played that way had he actually been a VT or a scum. That uncertainty is why I'm not currently trying to put weights on the likelihood of being in a set-up of 4, 5, 6 or 7 players specifically to get some kind of posterior. Well, that and the fact that by going that far, I may also want to fold in info about people's metas and current playing styles, and then it gets too subjective to be worth sharing in a quantitative sense. Also, my lunch break should be over by now :-P
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 16, 2018, 10:04:01 am
Swan, Masons do not shoot.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 16, 2018, 11:11:59 am
Swan, Masons do not shoot.

Scum are masons tha shoot
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 16, 2018, 11:43:24 am
Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?
Why didn't you just do it?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 16, 2018, 11:55:32 am
Ok, hammer simon in the next minute or I hammer galz
silver, why did you say this? Enough people were present to prevent a no lynch, snd you couldn't hammer anyway.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 16, 2018, 11:59:25 am
It should pretty clear given my late move from the silver wagon that I had no agenda towards Galz or simon. I was just trying to help us get a lynch. When I put simon to L1, no one hammered. Why was that?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 16, 2018, 12:10:07 pm
Then I put Galz at L1 and again no one hammered! Were people so convinced their choices were correct? There weren't really cases on either of them.

One thought is that a good number of the people present were scum while both wagons were on town. Scum didn't care which wagon went to lynch, and no lynch was ok with them as well. That points to DatSwan, skumpy, silver. Space came in late, could have been lurking.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 16, 2018, 12:15:10 pm
What is a 'Mason shot'? You know what a mason is....

I was reading Neighborizor where as Mason, that's mb.

There is obv another mason then.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 16, 2018, 12:16:12 pm
OTOH, everyone present seemed pretty worried about no lynch. They just wanted other people to do the switching required. So, if you are town, what made your scumreads so strong? I'm interested to hear from each person who could have hammered simon or Galz. How did you decide not to?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 16, 2018, 12:22:42 pm
Responding to Swan's stuff:

'XXR wasn't moving' - I still want to know why that's the case when he did check in that day. That's still a very important point.

'Only one who could hammer Simon was Skumpster' - Incorrect, because II could, for whatever that's worth.

To be clear about my actions after Iguana flipped: I gave EFHW the chance to go back to her preferred wagon before I made the hammer myself, which I planned to do at :59. Sixty seconds is plenty of time when I have the vote written and I'm hitting preview, though I suppose nobody was aware I was doing that at the time. I'm not going to hold EFHW's non-vote against her as a partner sign with Simon, thats too obvious, and makes little sense when she picked him over Galz at 5-5.

The thing is, Swan: None of that is relevant if Simon is town. Townies want to try to stick to their intended targets and avoid swerving as long as possible until they give in to the 'Chicken Game' and flip. If scum doesn't care who gets lynched, they can easily replicate that behavior. So it's all null. And if Simon is scum, why do you not want to lynch off-wagon? Or on Simon himself? ss certainly stayed on the Simon wagon for a while. Doesn't make him town, especially if Simon is, but it's not a great case against him yet.

there are no upper cases in my name plx. Let alone 2. it looks so horrible.
I've done the same, Swan, don't feel too bad.

I don't think Raptor checked in that day? I could be wrong but I believe he was in a no service zone like almost all the way through N1.

Yes if it was town v town wagon then obviously it doesn't give skum a whole lot of reason to panic and etc... which is kind of my point for wanting to not lynch Simon I guess. The way the day played out, guess both Galz and Simon could be Town. I like the concept of isolating the wagon in this instance, seems pretty sustainable. I thought Simon and silverspawn were skummy (or as skummy as one can be on D1) yesterday, and the end of day actions make me think moreso. So silver it is for now.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 16, 2018, 12:37:47 pm
One thought is that a good number of the people present were scum while both wagons were on town. Scum didn't care which wagon went to lynch, and no lynch was ok with them as well. That points to DatSwan, skumpy, silver. Space came in late, could have been lurking.

Surely if lots of people present were scum, then they'd be more likely to make up a flimsy reason to hammer, rather than sticking to their guns.

I don't know what you mean about "Space came in late" -- I was around and posting consistently from about half an hour before deadline. However, I was also one of the people scureading Simon and I'd stated that Galz was not someone I was interested in voting D1 (see post #258), so it should have been clear to anyone there that I wasn't really willing to switch.

I didn't want any voting shenanigans to mess things in the end (false hammers etc -- there was a lot going on and loads of PPEs), so I cast a last-second L+1-style vote to avoid all possibility of a no-lynch.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 16, 2018, 12:44:56 pm
OTOH, everyone present seemed pretty worried about no lynch. They just wanted other people to do the switching required. So, if you are town, what made your scumreads so strong? I'm interested to hear from each person who could have hammered simon or Galz. How did you decide not to?

I could have hammered Galz, but had no scuread on him, and had stated unwillingness to vote him. Even if I was only reading Simon as mildly scummy, because of a bit of flail in regard to the "scumslip" thing (and general omgus, and the fact that D1 scumreads are generally vague), the contrast between that scumread and a null-townread on Galz (plus meta and the fact I'd already said I'd rather not vote there) meant it wasn't exactly a big dilemma.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 16, 2018, 12:51:07 pm
If you want to scrutinise people for not hammering, I think it really matters which person they didn't hammer, and why.

As for avoiding no-lynch, I'm never sure about that one. I think I'm almost as concerned about the meta, and how it influences others' reads, as I am about the direct consequences. Of course if we don't lynch, we lose our only mechanism in for killing off scums, and we have a pretty small finite number of chances over the course of the game. OTOH, if people are really convinced with 10 minutes to go till deadline that the only possible options are townies, it hardly seems likely that killing a super-high-confidence townie is the right answer. For now, I'm erring on the side of making sure a lynch goes through.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 16, 2018, 12:59:14 pm
I think the RB should absolutely not claim at this point.

If that's the case, is it worth considering having the RB claim as well?

I think you might have missed the following:

Note that while we know for sure that there's a full RB in the game, there's actually a 0.7% chance of having two of them, so we can't necessarily IC anyone that way.

... and that's a 0.7% prior probability, so anyone who's convinced we have strong evidence of more town roles than average existing in this game should think that that number will be rather higher in the current posterior distribution.

There are reasons for an RB to not claim, but this is not one of the more crucial reasons. I'm not too worried about a <1/50 chance, or however much it ends up being.

Not sure about that.

Um.. how much do you know about Bayesian stuff? The numbers I've posted are from the prior distribution, marginalised over the still-available roles.

Your lack of certainty comes from wanting to turn it into a posterior distribution by inferring something about the number of roles in the game based on the fact that both of the first two flips were town PRs. Yes, that posterior distribution will be an updated version of the prior, but that's not what I'm claiming to have provided.

I really don't think the roles we've seen so far are selected at random from the pool of townies, because in II's case, he was almost certainly killed for being active, engaged and widely town-read, and he may well not have played that way had he actually been a VT or a scum. That uncertainty is why I'm not currently trying to put weights on the likelihood of being in a set-up of 4, 5, 6 or 7 players specifically to get some kind of posterior. Well, that and the fact that by going that far, I may also want to fold in info about people's metas and current playing styles, and then it gets too subjective to be worth sharing in a quantitative sense. Also, my lunch break should be over by now :-P

OK, we're on the same page then. Minus the PR hunting because it always seems like more of a shot in the dark than anything else to me, but it's no matter.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 16, 2018, 01:14:07 pm
There are reasons for an RB to not claim, but this is not one of the more crucial reasons. I'm not too worried about a <1/50 chance, or however much it ends up being.

Okay, let's put this another way: given that we know we have II's partner out there able to come forward and be a 100% guaranteed IC or 1v1, and who has at this point no town-useful role save perhaps some stored-up Iguana-wisdom, what is the point in outing a useful town PR who wouldn't necessarily be a unique IC?

In a scenario where we have two town RBs, do we end up lynching one or both of them because you've primed us to think about 1-v-1s?

In a scenario with only one RB, is it a good idea to come forward, out a good town PR, and not necessarily be believed as IC? Or is it better to stay quiet at the moment and risk being disbelieved later because someone turned up the pressure too much too early?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 16, 2018, 01:19:47 pm
Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?
Why didn't you just do it?
Because I'm not a hammerer when I don't need to be. And I didn't need to be yet because you were there.

OTOH, everyone present seemed pretty worried about no lynch. They just wanted other people to do the switching required. So, if you are town, what made your scumreads so strong? I'm interested to hear from each person who could have hammered simon or Galz. How did you decide not to?

Because even though I was pretty sure both were town, I was more sold on Simon than Galz. And when you do have a slight scumread on someone, as I had prior to that realization, you want to see who's going to flip to make the lynch happen. So I tried to stick, and almost did break except ss broke first.

Reasons I had at the time for Simon being town included: his efforts to get on the ss wagon, which seems more likely to come from town trying to find scum than scum trying to stay alive, and the wagon as a whole, since I had more faith there was town on Galz's wagon than Simon's. Mostly because of Iguana, but there would have likely been 2 scum in {Simon, Robz, TA}, which didn't seem like the best possibility.

Again: If Simon is town, I don't think there's much to be learned from the end of day non-hammers.



PPE: Space
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 16, 2018, 01:22:03 pm
Then I put Galz at L1 and again no one hammered! Were people so convinced their choices were correct? There weren't really cases on either of them.

One thought is that a good number of the people present were scum while both wagons were on town. Scum didn't care which wagon went to lynch, and no lynch was ok with them as well. That points to DatSwan, skumpy, silver. Space came in late, could have been lurking.

Excuse me, that doesn't point to me at all. I had a clear preference and waited literally until a minute left before I gave up my preference to ENSURE that there was a lynch. I'm well aware that my reads aren't good enough to make no-lynch preferable, and I played accordingly.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 16, 2018, 01:24:13 pm
and skumpy, I think you claimed that you deliberately waited until less than a minute was left. The lesson to draw here is DON'T DO THAT. There are so many things that could go wrong. Maybe someone misspells a name. Maybe someone forgets the colon or the whitespace. No plan should ever include waiting until less than a minute.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 16, 2018, 01:30:07 pm
so @DatSwan, I was actually being literate when I said I don't undestand how your post comes to the conclusion that I'm scummy. I don't understand what you are accusing me of having done. I'm particularly interested in hearing what you think I did wasn't pro town.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 16, 2018, 01:35:37 pm
And while I'm at it, having re-read the EoD1 again, EFHW comes out looking by far the scummiest there, especially given how she's since painted herself as having handed out opportunities to everyone to hammer both sides... (see #495, #496).

@EFHW, your reason for voting Galz was that "Iguana said". However, you had the opportunity to hammer Simon after Iguana switched at #440, but you didn't take it. Instead, you went mysteriously quiet, even though the vote count a few posts later made the position very clear. Why is that?

PPE 4
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 16, 2018, 01:36:04 pm

Okay, let's put this another way: given that we know we have II's partner out there able to come forward and be a 100% guaranteed IC or 1v1, and who has at this point no town-useful role save perhaps some stored-up Iguana-wisdom, what is the point in outing a useful town PR who wouldn't necessarily be a unique IC?\

Is there a rule against quoting non-mod stuff from a QT? Or at least paraphrasing? If not, couldn't the mason just reference posts from the Iguana discussion, which is probably tough enough to CC? The point of outing a PR would be to make sure that we either get one of these IC's alive to D3 or get a guaranteed scum lynch if we mislynch, which is obviously the less desired outcome.

In a scenario where we have two town RBs, do we end up lynching one or both of them because you've primed us to think about 1-v-1s?

Yes, because there's such a low percentage of that. If this exact scenario was to appear dozens of times, and we lose the game once as a direct result of thinking there was only 1 town RB, I'm fine with that. Just because something could be the case doesn't mean we should treat it as a realistic possibility.

In a scenario with only one RB, is it a good idea to come forward, out a good town PR, and not necessarily be believed as IC? Or is it better to stay quiet at the moment and risk being disbelieved later because someone turned up the pressure too much too early?

'Good town PR' is very relative. I don't expect to see any useful RB's happening, since there's probably a full strongman plus a scum RBer crawling around. 'Not necessarily believed': Either they get CC'd or they don't.

 It could very well be that it's more useful later. But if that's the case, then the mason probably shouldn't claim either. Here's the other thing you have to remember: not claiming doesn't guarantee both, or even just one, make it to D3 alive. If the lead wagon ends up being on a PR and they have to claim to save themselves, then that's a waste. And scum probably has some ideas on who they are as well, and can push that lynch and/or aim the NK.  Something to salvage while we stlil can? I don't know!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 16, 2018, 01:37:49 pm

Okay, let's put this another way: given that we know we have II's partner out there able to come forward and be a 100% guaranteed IC or 1v1, and who has at this point no town-useful role save perhaps some stored-up Iguana-wisdom, what is the point in outing a useful town PR who wouldn't necessarily be a unique IC?\

Is there a rule against quoting non-mod stuff from a QT? Or at least paraphrasing? If not, couldn't the mason just reference posts from the Iguana discussion, which is probably tough enough to CC? The point of outing a PR would be to make sure that we either get one of these IC's alive to D3 or get a guaranteed scum lynch if we mislynch, which is obviously the less desired outcome.


Definitely a rule against quoting, I do not want to have this discussion again.  If scum want to fakeclaim mason, having to come up with stuff that sounds like iguana is way too hard, so is prohibited.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 16, 2018, 01:38:50 pm
and skumpy, I think you claimed that you deliberately waited until less than a minute was left. The lesson to draw here is DON'T DO THAT. There are so many things that could go wrong. Maybe someone misspells a name. Maybe someone forgets the colon or the whitespace. No plan should ever include waiting until less than a minute.

I didn't start typing until there was less than a minute left, a minute left was when I started spamming 'preview'. The worst thing that can happen is exactly what happened; namely, you flipped. But you raise good points all the same; I hereby promise that every future time I pull this stunt, it shall happen with two minutes left.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 16, 2018, 01:40:24 pm

Okay, let's put this another way: given that we know we have II's partner out there able to come forward and be a 100% guaranteed IC or 1v1, and who has at this point no town-useful role save perhaps some stored-up Iguana-wisdom, what is the point in outing a useful town PR who wouldn't necessarily be a unique IC?\

Is there a rule against quoting non-mod stuff from a QT? Or at least paraphrasing? If not, couldn't the mason just reference posts from the Iguana discussion, which is probably tough enough to CC? The point of outing a PR would be to make sure that we either get one of these IC's alive to D3 or get a guaranteed scum lynch if we mislynch, which is obviously the less desired outcome.


Definitely a rule against quoting, I do not want to have this discussion again.  If scum want to fakeclaim mason, having to come up with stuff that sounds like iguana is way too hard, so is prohibited.

No paraphrasing allowed either?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 16, 2018, 01:43:09 pm
and skumpy, I think you claimed that you deliberately waited until less than a minute was left. The lesson to draw here is DON'T DO THAT. There are so many things that could go wrong. Maybe someone misspells a name. Maybe someone forgets the colon or the whitespace. No plan should ever include waiting until less than a minute.

I didn't start typing until there was less than a minute left, a minute left was when I started spamming 'preview'. The worst thing that can happen is exactly what happened; namely, you flipped. But you raise good points all the same; I hereby promise that every future time I pull this stunt, it shall happen with two minutes left.

Typo: I didn't starting typing WHEN there was less than a minute left, yadda yadda yadda.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 16, 2018, 01:49:04 pm
And while I'm at it, having re-read the EoD1 again, EFHW comes out looking by far the scummiest there, especially given how she's since painted herself as having handed out opportunities to everyone to hammer both sides... (see #495, #496).

It may be a case of too scummy to be scum. On the other hand, if simon was mafia, there was quite a lot at stake. I think I agree.

I'm probably the only one who wants to lynch simon. I don't understand where all this "town vs town" talk is coming from. It looked to me like a town vs scum wagon.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 16, 2018, 01:49:50 pm
and skumpy, I think you claimed that you deliberately waited until less than a minute was left. The lesson to draw here is DON'T DO THAT. There are so many things that could go wrong. Maybe someone misspells a name. Maybe someone forgets the colon or the whitespace. No plan should ever include waiting until less than a minute.

I didn't start typing until there was less than a minute left, a minute left was when I started spamming 'preview'. The worst thing that can happen is exactly what happened; namely, you flipped. But you raise good points all the same; I hereby promise that every future time I pull this stunt, it shall happen with two minutes left.

Typo: I didn't starting typing WHEN there was less than a minute left, yadda yadda yadda.

That's fine. I don't scumread you for it, I think.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 16, 2018, 01:50:48 pm
let's try. vote: simon
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 16, 2018, 02:30:35 pm
Seems like an interesting end of D1, bummed that I missed it. Iím going to read though it again and trying to figure out if who I think is scummy based on the time stamps. Iíll post more content tonight.

Swan and I also have a big event on Saturday, maybe a bit busy still then.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 16, 2018, 04:21:24 pm
And while I'm at it, having re-read the EoD1 again, EFHW comes out looking by far the scummiest there, especially given how she's since painted herself as having handed out opportunities to everyone to hammer both sides... (see #495, #496).

@EFHW, your reason for voting Galz was that "Iguana said". However, you had the opportunity to hammer Simon after Iguana switched at #440, but you didn't take it. Instead, you went mysteriously quiet, even though the vote count a few posts later made the position very clear. Why is that?

PPE 4
I switched because no one was hammering. Iguana's point was reinforcing of the decision. I didn't hammer later because someone started talking to me irl and then I had to catch up to figure out what people were doing and why.

I don't see why you are mocking my factual comments that I put each person to L1 and no one hammered either time.

I realized later that you didn't come in late. Sorry. That was just how I remembered it for some reason.

I think it is informative to hear how people were deciding what to do. Everyone is on the defensive suddenly!

It seems like DatSwan had info about raptor the rest of us didn't.  Unavoidable but a factor to consider.



Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 16, 2018, 04:30:25 pm
Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?
Why didn't you just do it?
Because I'm not a hammerer when I don't need to be. And I didn't need to be yet because you were there.

OTOH, everyone present seemed pretty worried about no lynch. They just wanted other people to do the switching required. So, if you are town, what made your scumreads so strong? I'm interested to hear from each person who could have hammered simon or Galz. How did you decide not to?

Because even though I was pretty sure both were town, I was more sold on Simon than Galz. And when you do have a slight scumread on someone, as I had prior to that realization, you want to see who's going to flip to make the lynch happen. So I tried to stick, and almost did break except ss broke first.

Reasons I had at the time for Simon being town included: his efforts to get on the ss wagon, which seems more likely to come from town trying to find scum than scum trying to stay alive, and the wagon as a whole, since I had more faith there was town on Galz's wagon than Simon's. Mostly because of Iguana, but there would have likely been 2 scum in {Simon, Robz, TA}, which didn't seem like the best possibility.

Again: If Simon is town, I don't think there's much to be learned from the end of day non-hammers.



PPE: Space

If we knew simon was town then there would still be things to learn from the nonhammerers.   Since we don't know, why dismiss the question?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 16, 2018, 04:33:33 pm
Iguana's point contributed to my feeling both wagons were on town.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 17, 2018, 04:30:42 am
Vote: skumpy because of the timing of his votes as well as over all tone in the game (nothing new right?)

Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?
why wouldn't you just do it yourself?

Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...
convenient that with less then a minute you were ready to switch off the wagon.
 
Responding to Swan's stuff:

'XXR wasn't moving' - I still want to know why that's the case when he did check in that day. That's still a very important point.

I think that you are miss remembering me there. I was VLA for through N1.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: LaLight on August 17, 2018, 05:03:13 am
What do you feel now?

Vote Count 2.1


Skumpy (2): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (1): DatSwan
Twistedarcher (1): Simon Jester
Simon Jester (1): silverspawn
Not Voting: (5) Robz888, Twistedarcher, EFHW, SpaceAnemone, Skumpy

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Skumpy on August 17, 2018, 05:16:03 am
Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?
Why didn't you just do it?
Because I'm not a hammerer when I don't need to be. And I didn't need to be yet because you were there.

OTOH, everyone present seemed pretty worried about no lynch. They just wanted other people to do the switching required. So, if you are town, what made your scumreads so strong? I'm interested to hear from each person who could have hammered simon or Galz. How did you decide not to?

Because even though I was pretty sure both were town, I was more sold on Simon than Galz. And when you do have a slight scumread on someone, as I had prior to that realization, you want to see who's going to flip to make the lynch happen. So I tried to stick, and almost did break except ss broke first.

Reasons I had at the time for Simon being town included: his efforts to get on the ss wagon, which seems more likely to come from town trying to find scum than scum trying to stay alive, and the wagon as a whole, since I had more faith there was town on Galz's wagon than Simon's. Mostly because of Iguana, but there would have likely been 2 scum in {Simon, Robz, TA}, which didn't seem like the best possibility.

Again: If Simon is town, I don't think there's much to be learned from the end of day non-hammers.



PPE: Space

If we knew simon was town then there would still be things to learn from the nonhammerers.   Since we don't know, why dismiss the question?

Because the nonhammerers present were me and Iguana. You know one's town, you'll find out the other is town.

The amount of evidence in favor of Simon is so overwhelming, I find it strange ss still wants to vote there. If he is scum, he needs two partners. EFHW/Simon isn't a thing. Simon/ss isn't a thing. Skumpy/Simon isn't a thing. That's already a big reduction in the number of people who he could be partnered with. And that's just me being cursory, I could've probably done better. Iguana made a better case for him that I can.



I think that you are miss remembering me there. I was VLA for through N1.

Raptor: I saw your name that Tuesday afternoon. 'Who's Online' doesn't lie.

FOS to everyone not actively moving us to a lynch. Thereís a lot of people who still have their votes in useless places 2.5 hours to deadline, and some of these people have come in and posted and not moved their votes.
This. Also going to extend it to Raptor for showing up and not moving his vote.

Note the timestamp. This is only a few hours before the lynch takes place. Why would I lie about something and give the other 10 people online at the time the chance to doublecheck my work and find out about my deception? So if you're going to continue to maintain that you did not open a browser and look at the forums during this period, I have no choice but to either report a bug to the forum moderator or vote you now. So for that, for the fact that your game is a far cry from NM11, and for cherrypicking the easiest case possible against me (something I saw you do as scum 1 year ago - do you know better now, I don't know):

Vote: Raptor

After that TA and Swan are my next candidates.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 17, 2018, 06:16:31 am

I think that you are miss remembering me there. I was VLA for through N1.

Raptor: I saw your name that Tuesday afternoon. 'Who's Online' doesn't lie.

FOS to everyone not actively moving us to a lynch. Thereís a lot of people who still have their votes in useless places 2.5 hours to deadline, and some of these people have come in and posted and not moved their votes.
This. Also going to extend it to Raptor for showing up and not moving his vote.

Note the timestamp. This is only a few hours before the lynch takes place. Why would I lie about something and give the other 10 people online at the time the chance to doublecheck my work and find out about my deception? So if you're going to continue to maintain that you did not open a browser and look at the forums during this period, I have no choice but to either report a bug to the forum moderator or vote you now. So for that, for the fact that your game is a far cry from NM11, and for cherrypicking the easiest case possible against me (something I saw you do as scum 1 year ago - do you know better now, I don't know):

Vote: Raptor

After that TA and Swan are my next candidates.

Realized I will not be around for D1 end. VLA tomorrow afternoon- till Tuesday afternoon sometime. I will have zero service during this time.


Hereís where I said that I was out till Tuesday afternoon  :) ... but unfortunately the day closed on Monday sometime.  :(  I was in the California back country fighting bears at the time your lynched galz.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 17, 2018, 06:23:05 am
@skumpy Itís hardly cherry picking. If you came off as less scummy it wouldnít be so easy to make a case on you.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 17, 2018, 06:35:30 am
LAL

vote: raptor

if you weren't there, then why were you online?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 17, 2018, 06:46:24 am
LAL

vote: raptor

if you weren't there, then why were you online?

Your statement confuses me, when do you believe that I was online?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 17, 2018, 07:16:02 am
nvm I think I misunderstood.

back to vote: Simon

@skumpy: EFHW and Simon is super a thing.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 17, 2018, 09:18:39 am
I think that you are miss remembering me there. I was VLA for through N1.

Raptor: I saw your name that Tuesday afternoon. 'Who's Online' doesn't lie.

It lies in two ways:

1. People can opt never to be listed. I believe plenty of current Mafia players turn off the listing specifically so they can't be tracked like that.

2. I've read somewhere that leaving an f.ds tab open in a browser (even a phone browser) has been shown to make a pearson appear as present even if they're not actively reloading the page or interacting with it. I was more sceptical of that, but TBH, it makes the game more fun to believe it, and less about who can dedicate the longest time to stalking "Who's Online".
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 17, 2018, 09:29:11 am
Ugh are we really using "fake news" here in mafia games? OK, time to log off, that's absurd and I am so unhappy that that's bleeding into f.ds. Time to go cooldown

Why didn't you come back for deadline?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 17, 2018, 09:33:20 am
Skumpy said he saw raptor online on Tues afternoon, but eod was on Monday.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 17, 2018, 11:28:36 am
Skumpy said he saw raptor online on Tues afternoon, but eod was on Monday.

Yeah, that's what I noticed too, hence the unvote.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 17, 2018, 11:37:09 am
Skumpy said he saw raptor online on Tues afternoon, but eod was on Monday.

Yeah, that's what I noticed too, hence the unvote.
It's still a weird thing to say. On Tues he would have known the day had ended.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 17, 2018, 12:21:22 pm
Skumpy said he saw raptor online on Tues afternoon, but eod was on Monday.

Yeah, that's what I noticed too, hence the unvote.
It's still a weird thing to say. On Tues he would have known the day had ended.

Skumpy may just be mis-remembering what day of the week the deadline was on, now that he's referring back to it. I'm assuming he meant to say that he was stalking Who's Online on the Monday, unless he comes along to say differently. Either way, I don't think it's as informative as he thinks it is.

At one stage, LL had a "Tuesday" in the deadline text of a VC, I think, because for a while during D1 I had the idea in my head that it was going to be the Tuesday and not the Monday, too.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 17, 2018, 12:52:33 pm
Skumpy said he saw raptor online on Tues afternoon, but eod was on Monday.

Yeah, that's what I noticed too, hence the unvote.
It's still a weird thing to say. On Tues he would have known the day had ended.

Skumpy may just be mis-remembering what day of the week the deadline was on, now that he's referring back to it. I'm assuming he meant to say that he was stalking Who's Online on the Monday, unless he comes along to say differently. Either way, I don't think it's as informative as he thinks it is.

This. The quote I gave is from that Monday.

I think that you are miss remembering me there. I was VLA for through N1.

Raptor: I saw your name that Tuesday afternoon. 'Who's Online' doesn't lie.

It lies in two ways:

1. People can opt never to be listed. I believe plenty of current Mafia players turn off the listing specifically so they can't be tracked like that.

2. I've read somewhere that leaving an f.ds tab open in a browser (even a phone browser) has been shown to make a pearson appear as present even if they're not actively reloading the page or interacting with it. I was more sceptical of that, but TBH, it makes the game more fun to believe it, and less about who can dedicate the longest time to stalking "Who's Online".

1. There are indeed false negatives. So far, I haven't seen a false positive.

2. Surely something would still have to happen to cause it to trigger? And while I agree that it's not the fun thing to do, given that I did notice it, I can't put it out of my mind and discard it completely.


I was in the California back country fighting bears at the time your lynched galz.

That does sound pretty exhilarating, hope it was fun. Also, I see what you're doing there. Clever.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 17, 2018, 01:02:41 pm
nvm I think I misunderstood.

back to vote: Simon

@skumpy: EFHW and Simon is super a thing.

Just that it isn't.

Scum had no reason to interact at the deadline yesterday. If TA isn't happening I can try raptor, by all means.

vote: raptor
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 17, 2018, 01:18:36 pm
Sorry, busy day yesterday.  Did anyone claim to be the other mason?  I'm much less likely to believe a claim tomorrow, and if we get another mislynch today, tomorrow will be MYLO, so scum will definitely 1v1 for the win.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 17, 2018, 02:34:18 pm
Lynching off of some "Who's Online" confusion has never ever ever ever ever been good. In fact, I'm pretty sure I've most often argued for lynching like this when I am myself scum, so big FOS at Skumpy.

Sorry, I've not been engaging with this game nearly enough. I feel like TA and gkrieg are just as un-engaged, though? Gkrieg I guess has an excuse, where is TA?

I skimmed Space's math posts, per usual--no offense, Space. I guess Space's case on EFHW is more persuasive than anything else I've seen, so Vote: EFHW.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 17, 2018, 02:58:29 pm
Lynching off of some "Who's Online" confusion has never ever ever ever ever been good. In fact, I'm pretty sure I've most often argued for lynching like this when I am myself scum, so big FOS at Skumpy.

Well, yes. Though you also have to remember that his big defense of the whole "scumslip" discussion was that he'd been stalking "Who's Online" before the game even started, and that's how he knew that Simon had learned the ropes well.. so if he can make it look like stalking "Who's Online" is a big part of his play strategy, then that looks more natural retrospectively.

I've not been engaging with this game nearly enough. I feel like TA and gkrieg are just as un-engaged, though?

Yes. I've mentally awarded scumpoints to you and gkrieg accordingly. Less so to TA, because he's an unknown to me. I feel like he's really not giving me much to go on...

I skimmed Space's math posts, per usual--no offense, Space.

No offense taken!

I guess Space's case on EFHW is more persuasive than anything else I've seen, so Vote: EFHW.

This points to the fact that we need some more persuasive cases, really. I wasn't even trying to make a case so much as deflect what I thought was undeserved suspicion coming my way from EFWH because I was one of the people active at the EoD and not moving to lynch Galz.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 17, 2018, 03:08:07 pm
TA is an unknown to you? Didn't realize that. He was a high skill veteran player for a long stretch of games.

If I'm accruing scum points and all other cases are bad, why am I not getting your vote?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 17, 2018, 03:12:25 pm
You should read the conclusion of space' math posts, though. It's not like in past games where there was lots of debate, what they said is on point.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 17, 2018, 05:39:35 pm
TA is an unknown to you? Didn't realize that. He was a high skill veteran player for a long stretch of games.

If I'm accruing scum points and all other cases are bad, why am I not getting your vote?
I was wondering the same thing about you voting me just after awarding a bunch of scum points to Skumpy.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 17, 2018, 05:44:15 pm
I'm annoyed by the who's online thing. Raptor and DatSwan both say raptor didn't have access. So is Skumpy making this up?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 17, 2018, 07:54:33 pm
TA is an unknown to you? Didn't realize that. He was a high skill veteran player for a long stretch of games.

From his posting backlog, it looks like the previous game he was in was M101, which was a really small one that I wasn't playing in. Before that, it was M70. I joined for M84, though my first game was M85, because that actually started earlier :-) I think M85 was LL's first one, too!

If I'm accruing scum points and all other cases are bad, why am I not getting your vote?

I didn't say you were the only one accruing points. I'm mulling some stuff over and seeing what cases stick in my head right now. Well, in general. Right now it's bed time.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 17, 2018, 07:58:31 pm
Hey, was going to come home and catch up this evening, but it turns out my internet is out, so Iím stuck to mobile for the time being. Iím in a similar place to robz, in that I havenít gotten into the flow of things. Galz flipping town definitely didnít help that feeling.

Re-reading this evening then hoping internet is fixed tomorrow so I can quote and post things, but probably will have to wait until tomorrow to contribute.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 17, 2018, 08:07:06 pm
Lynching off of some "Who's Online" confusion has never ever ever ever ever been good. In fact, I'm pretty sure I've most often argued for lynching like this when I am myself scum, so big FOS at Skumpy.

Well, yes. Though you also have to remember that his big defense of the whole "scumslip" discussion was that he'd been stalking "Who's Online" before the game even started, and that's how he knew that Simon had learned the ropes well.. so if he can make it look like stalking "Who's Online" is a big part of his play strategy, then that looks more natural retrospectively.

It's not a part of my strategy; it's something I notice. There've been plenty of times I see people online and reading without posting; I don't care and I'm not going to call out by name (with the one exception) because it's not super informative and it's something I'm often guilty of.

I'm annoyed by the who's online thing. Raptor and DatSwan both say raptor didn't have access. So is Skumpy making this up?
As I said before: it'd be stupid of me to make something up when it's something that's very easily checkable by everyone else.

Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 17, 2018, 10:41:39 pm
How would it be checkable?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 17, 2018, 10:51:00 pm
so @DatSwan, I was actually being literate when I said I don't undestand how your post comes to the conclusion that I'm scummy. I don't understand what you are accusing me of having done. I'm particularly interested in hearing what you think I did wasn't pro town.

Being ďwrong about the vote countĒ the ďaw shucks commentĒ the switching with II.... pretty much the stuff i already posted
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 17, 2018, 10:59:00 pm
I am going to continue to read through this.... but this argument seems a little ridiculous...
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: LaLight on August 18, 2018, 03:52:18 am
What do you feel now?

Vote Count 2.2


Skumpy (2): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (1): DatSwan
Xxraptorslayer96 (2): Skumpy, Simon Jester
Simon Jester (1): silverspawn
EFHW (1): Robz888
Not Voting: (3) Twistedarcher, EFHW, SpaceAnemone

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 18, 2018, 04:05:17 am
so @DatSwan, I was actually being literate when I said I don't undestand how your post comes to the conclusion that I'm scummy. I don't understand what you are accusing me of having done. I'm particularly interested in hearing what you think I did wasn't pro town.

Being ďwrong about the vote countĒ the ďaw shucks commentĒ the switching with II.... pretty much the stuff i already posted

what are you talking about? I wasn't wrong about any vote count. I saw that there were 2 votes left, but I knew and I was right that we'd get a vote on galz through anyway. What aw shucks comment? And how was the switching bad? It ensured a lynch? ???
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 18, 2018, 07:02:18 am
Okay, here's an attempt at distilling Swan's big long post at #487 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=18873.msg764935#msg764935) into something more concise.

1. Masons shoot stuff. This was unknown to most players.

2. He posts the vote count as of #396, which was current through till #421 when EFHW switched, and hypothesizes that there is at least one scum on each of the wagons amongst the non-conf!town players. Leaving his name in the pool this time, this gives:3. He claims that Skumpy was the only present-and-active person capable of hammering Simon. Not sure why that's such a big point, or where Iguana went in his reasoning.

4. He then ignores all his previous reasoning, and points out that silver is super-scummy because he posted intent to switch as we reached the two-minutes-to-deadline mark, and switched with under 60 seconds to spare, and this timing contributes to him being "scummy as hell".

5. A contributing factor to silver's scumminess is that he was Galz's top scumread, which has nothing to do with all the preceding vote analysis either.


Additional notes/opinions from me:

1. I have no idea what Swan means by "IDK its not hammer hammer" -- I can't see any post of silver's matching that.

2. I think it would be weird that scum!silver would stick with his stated scumread till 47 seconds before the deadline if he's really interested in lynching Galz, when super!townie!Iguana's pleas were clearly justification enough for other moves from Simon to Galz only a few minutes earlier.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 18, 2018, 07:18:31 am
And while I'm dissecting Swan's post:

Pay attention boys and girls, this is where shit gets fun...

Might I suggest that instead of using "boys and girls", you try on some alternatives like "everyone", "folks", "towns and scums", or "assorted netizens"? Such phrases would not only be more attention-grabbing and linguistically fun, but also more accurate for your current audience, too :-)
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 18, 2018, 09:14:13 am
Why did iguana switch to simon when silver had stated intent to hammer?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 18, 2018, 11:09:05 am
Hey -
It is game day today for Raptor and I.
I see some stuff directed at me - i will get to it tomorrow.

Happy weekend!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 18, 2018, 11:10:21 am
If you see me log on Itís an error - Iím still VLA today
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 18, 2018, 11:27:34 am
Do other people not think that skumpyís EOD post was super scummy?  It makes me think that he and Simon are partners.

Also why donít we have a mason claim???
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 18, 2018, 01:46:34 pm
Do other people not think that skumpyís EOD post was super scummy?  It makes me think that he and Simon are partners.

Also why donít we have a mason claim???

Is it still super-scummy if we assume (correctly) that I'm town? I'm a bit pained with being the only one with accurate information on this issue because the whole EOD is almost useless for me. It was town against town and scum could relax away. I don't give much for the who's online- argument but we primarily need to look at those not being part of the deadline anyway. TA, raptor pr maybe Robz too is where I would go today. Or Space, but nobody seems to care much about my accusation there, but I still think is the best one out there.

Gash, we are in a hard spot it seems. Mason, please help out. I think it's the best way if you could take the lead here, maybe.   
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 18, 2018, 02:48:04 pm
The gosh we are in a hard spot it seems from Simon is super scummy. Does not seem genuine.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 18, 2018, 02:54:47 pm
The gosh we are in a hard spot it seems from Simon is super scummy. Does not seem genuine.

I agree. Vote: Simon
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 18, 2018, 02:55:30 pm
If I'm accruing scum points and all other cases are bad, why am I not getting your vote?

I didn't say you were the only one accruing points. I'm mulling some stuff over and seeing what cases stick in my head right now. Well, in general. Right now it's bed time.

Sure, fine. I was just trying to generate conversation.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 19, 2018, 04:06:34 am
The gosh we are in a hard spot it seems from Simon is super scummy. Does not seem genuine.

I agree. Vote: Simon

Disappointed.

I'm genuinely frustrated. I got scumread yesterday based on basically nothing. I'm pseudo-new with a fresh account and the early conversation circeled around that and it got stuck together with the scumslip- accusation with Skumpy and me and since then I've been the top scum read for most people, the fact that the EOD killed off Galz instead of me didn't really help my case. I can't really lead town in any direction, I assume people would just counter-vote me if I tried to craft any type of plan.

But fine, kill me off. That mislynch will be rough as hell, but I guess you will have a better chance to see clearly when I'm gone.

In fact. Back to basics for me too. vote for the top scumread and it's still: vote: SpaceA
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 19, 2018, 05:12:43 am
How would it be checkable?
The name shows on the homepage for 15 minutes. And if you miss that, you click the profile. Since people get mad me at when I talk about it, please stop asking me questions about it so that I don't have to talk about it.

If you see me log on Itís an error - Iím still VLA today
OK, last time, I swear: your profile's 'Last Active' corroborates your story, you do in fact have an air-tight alibi for Saturday, Swan. Except that it's always the person with the best alibi who does the murder.

Do other people not think that skumpyís EOD post was super scummy?  It makes me think that he and Simon are partners.

Also why donít we have a mason claim???
So how do you feel then that Simon also agrees the mason should claim?


Simon: If you're playing me, I am going to be so disappointed in you and even more disappointed in myself. You're not brand new, so I have to be careful about that and I do have to remind myself that you have some knowledge of how to talk as scum. If you are scum, I give my full apologies to town and full kudos to scum for a game well played where you could either bus without suspicion or let literally the entire town vote him without needing to step in to interfere. If I mess up, then foof, I am disappointed to have let my moronic intellect lead you astray.

Having said that: I haven't yet been wrong on a 'white knight' read, as ss likes to say and as I will now be using that term from now on, so by the powers invested in me by LaLight and my positive emotion flavor (I consider calm quite positive, btw), I hereby dub thee Sir Jester. You people are veterans at this game. You have combined to play dozens upon dozens of games and to spend centuries worth of reading and posting; why are you cherrypicking statements (on D2 at that) like:

The gosh we are in a hard spot it seems from Simon is super scummy. Does not seem genuine.

I agree. Vote: Simon

when he probably KNOWS that this kind of stuff is so typical of new scum, and so he wouldn't post it (and so he would, and so WIFOM, etc, but it's not a scummy thing to say). This Skumpy-Simon theory was farfetched to begin with, and it's gotten worse if anything. I don't go out my way and do everything I can to save partners. That would be very obvious of me, wouldn't it? I say: if they've messed up, let 'em die! I don't want to lose this game, and I'm doing everything in my power to prevent that from happening. Am I necessarily right? No, maybe not even about Simon. But you people need to do more to help than ignore every point we try to make and instead FOS the 2 most active people in this game. Iguana, if you can read this from the dead, I am gravely disappointed in you because you played too damn well D1 and I really want my lizard here right now (not a breadcrumb).

If either and/or both of you are scum @gkrieg/Robz, it's shameful that we have delivered ourselves into your hands so easily without you having to lift a finger when no votes are coming your way. And if you are town, you should go have a nap or eat some almonds or something, and come back with a fresh mindset and solve this mystery.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 19, 2018, 05:38:36 am
Simon: If you're playing me, I am going to be so disappointed in you and even more disappointed in myself.

The same to you Skump. I don't know man. This whiteknighting, aka buddying, is pleasent but makes me nevertheless extremely suspicious. Halfway through I thought you were going to come out as Mason and that would be so so good, noew I just don't know... thanks.. I guess? But I'm not sure that anyone else could be convinced by this.,

Agree though that gkrieg/Robz is a very likely scumteam seeing how these days have been played out. Anyone else up for getting Robz today?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 19, 2018, 05:43:32 am
While we're on the subject of:

The gosh we are in a hard spot it seems from Simon is super scummy. Does not seem genuine.

I agree. Vote: Simon

Disappointed.

I'm genuinely frustrated. I got scumread yesterday based on basically nothing. I'm pseudo-new with a fresh account and the early conversation circeled around that and it got stuck together with the scumslip- accusation with Skumpy and me and since then I've been the top scum read for most people, the fact that the EOD killed off Galz instead of me didn't really help my case. I can't really lead town in any direction, I assume people would just counter-vote me if I tried to craft any type of plan.

But fine, kill me off. That mislynch will be rough as hell, but I guess you will have a better chance to see clearly when I'm gone.


In fact. Back to basics for me too. vote for the top scumread and it's still: vote: SpaceA

which by the way is exactly how I'm feeling right now, especially the bold, and even the desire to keep wagon hopping even though I know it just raises suspicion.


Let's revisit the Raptor case. People seem to be in the mindset of 'what a crappy case based on 'Who's Online', that can't be right'.

If Raptor was town, he could make that very clear and obvious if he wanted to. I've seen him do it before, he is more than capable of doing it again. One possibility is that he is scum and finds it difficult to make a fake case. A second, and one that I know is scummy of me to say (self-conscious, oooh!), but I have to put it out there as I refrained from saying it D1, is that his one special performance was a direct result of him being a PR, and a feeling of responsibility to contribute. As town, I don't actively try to figure out who the PR's are. But it's tough of me to not notice things like Raptor's play. Given that scum already has a 30% chance of knocking out either the Mason or the Roleblocker without any other information AND that they might lynch a town today AND that they've probably already figured out who both are, there is some safety in targeting somebody who is less likely to be a PR. Iguana voted for Raptor as well D1, which further suggests to me he's not the mason. In addition, were he to flip scum, that would make me very reluctant to want to vote EFHW for the rest of the game because of him throwing his vote there before he went VLA, and so would all but clear one of the more unreadable, controversial players this game.

His post out of his 15 thus far, including the /in, involving the most work and scumreading was this:

Vote: skumpy because of the timing of his votes as well as over all tone in the game (nothing new right?)

Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?
why wouldn't you just do it yourself?

Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...
convenient that with less then a minute you were ready to switch off the wagon.
 
Responding to Swan's stuff:

'XXR wasn't moving' - I still want to know why that's the case when he did check in that day. That's still a very important point.

I think that you are miss remembering me there. I was VLA for through N1.

which is just lazy in addition to being wrong. Raptor, if you are town, I don't want to sound like a jerk with this, but I probably will, and I apologize: I don't trust you to make good decisions for the remainder of the game, and I see you as more of a liability than an asset, if that is the absolute best of your scumreading efforts. You can be very, very good at this game as town, both in terms of accuracy and in gaining towncred for yourself. But you're not this game, and I don't know why. If I had to guess, it's that we are indeed once again pitted against each other which disappoints me greatly.


Expected value aside, why vote Raptor? Because he has done nothing townie this game. The only case for him was Swan saying D1 "it's a lazy vote on Raptor". True enough at the time, and I agreed. But we're halfway into D2. He's had 48 hours, not counting Saturday, to go back and reflect and put together a case. A case on me based on a few scummy posts in response to not voting a wagon that may or may not be town (why not vote Simon if that's what you believe?) is what resulted. I feel like Awaclus, but I now kinda get it when he says: Give me a good reason I should not vote Raptor right now, and @everyone, tell me what you have going for him?

PPE
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 19, 2018, 05:49:54 am
Simon: If you're playing me, I am going to be so disappointed in you and even more disappointed in myself.
Agree though that gkrieg/Robz is a very likely scumteam seeing how these days have been played out. Anyone else up for getting Robz today?

I did not agree with that actually, just a possibility that would be very unfortunate. The sad truth is that I'm very much in the dark. I have suspects that I've listed before (namely, Raptor, Swan, and TA), but could easily see scum in basically everybody else...except you. No, I'm not a fan of voting Robz today, I think there are better options. If you believe there was scum on the opposite wagon, which is far from a certainty if Raptor is one of the team, I'd rather go for TA.

My Raptor case could be way wrong, btw. But I'm putting this on you now, Raptor: prove to me that you want to win and that you are capable of putting together a solid argument against someone from what they've done over the course of 10 IRL days, and not based on a few posts at the end of D1 during a rushed lynch. If it's on me, so be it. But make a good case.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 19, 2018, 06:22:20 am
I'm open to a raptor vote. But do you agree that you were wrong on the time thing? He was online after the lynch happened, so there is no case on him based on not being there at the deadline ... right? Just trying to understand.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 19, 2018, 06:28:40 am
I'm open to a raptor vote. But do you agree that you were wrong on the time thing? He was online after the lynch happened, so there is no case on him based on not being there at the deadline ... right? Just trying to understand.

I was not wrong, I just wrote Tuesday when I meant to write Monday. And mistaken, wrong, lying, whatever.... throw that out if you want, if it's clouding your (general 'your') judgment.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 19, 2018, 07:57:11 am
Wait, so you are in fact claiming that he was online on monday when he claims he was not?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 19, 2018, 10:21:55 am
Wait, so you are in fact claiming that he was online on monday when he claims he was not?

I believe that Skumpy is still Maintaining that Raptor was here, based on "Who's Online" information. Skumpy had claimed that his info is "very easily checkable by everyone else", which is true for other people who're active around the same time, but there's no login history we can go back and check now. So this could be faked, but only to the extent that Skumpy is confident no other player who was online at the same time has recorded contradictory information with enough confidence to call him out on it.

He did, however, say earlier that Swan had an airtight alibi due to the login time listings. That confused me on first reading, because it hadn't registered for me that he was making observations about two different players, so read it incorrectly as him backing down on the original case at first.

I think my approach for now is going to be to believe that Skumpy saw exactly what he says he saw, to believe that Raptor was just as VLA as he says he was, and to unify these beliefs based on the existence of both false positives and false negatives exist in the system. I would like it if this kind of evidence could be ignored/strongly downweighted in favour of actual posts and votes from the players in question.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 19, 2018, 10:26:04 am
vote: Space, but raptor is also sounding good. I agree Robz is being scummy. Not sure about gkrieg. If the mason would claim, I think that could greatly help our scumhunting today.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 19, 2018, 10:26:56 am
That vote was not a response to their most recent post.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 19, 2018, 10:29:49 am
I didn't say you were the only one accruing points. I'm mulling some stuff over and seeing what cases stick in my head right now. Well, in general. Right now it's bed time.

Sure, fine. I was just trying to generate conversation.
[/quote]

You used my wasn't-even-a-real-case "case" to vote EFHW, and now you're jumping onto Simon based on a comment from gkrieg. Note that gkrieg himself is voting skumpy at the moment, and again, his comment was not a real case. So if you'd like to generate some conversation, let's have a conversation, with reads and opinions and things, so you can interact in a way that is more than superficial vote-throwing :-)

My problem with this game right now is that you, gkrieg, TA and Raptor are all super-low contributors, so there could be any number (up to three) of scum hiding in there. How would you recommend that I balance wanting to hunt for scums in the places I can actually hunt (people who're interacting, posting, making their opinions known) with wanting to rid town of liabilities in the much less vocal half?

Post Count D1
81 - iguanaiguana
47 - silverspawn
44 - EFHW
42 - Skumpy
39 - Simon Jester
32 - Galzria
30 - DatSwan
25 - gkrieg13
24 - SpaceAnemone
23 - Twistedarcher
20 - Robz888
9 - Xxraptorslayer96

Post Count D2 so far
24 - Skumpy
19 - EFHW
19 - SpaceAnemone
16 - silverspawn
8 - gkrieg13
7 - DatSwan
7 - Robz888
6 - Simon Jester
5 - Xxraptorslayer96
1 - Twistedarcher


PPE: I've updated the vote count based on EFHW's new pair of posts, but this post was in the works in parallel with my other post above, and is not taking the content of her posts into consideration.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 19, 2018, 10:31:25 am
Simon: If you're playing me, I am going to be so disappointed in you and even more disappointed in myself.

The same to you Skump. I don't know man. This whiteknighting, aka buddying, is pleasent but makes me nevertheless extremely suspicious. Halfway through I thought you were going to come out as Mason and that would be so so good, noew I just don't know... thanks.. I guess? But I'm not sure that anyone else could be convinced by this.,

Agree though that gkrieg/Robz is a very likely scumteam seeing how these days have been played out. Anyone else up for getting Robz today?
White knighting is a scum tactic where you vigorously defend a town player who is in danger of being lynched.  Buddying is used by either alignment.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 19, 2018, 11:12:25 am
The gosh we are in a hard spot it seems from Simon is super scummy. Does not seem genuine.

You think Simon, who's pretty much playing like a newbie, is so easy to tone-read? And yet you're voting Skumpy, because you think he's acting even more super-scummily?

I kind of don't like how you're staying largely disengaged with the game, resting confidently on your two scumreads but not pushing cases beyond "hey, isn't that too scummy?". Meanwhile, I'm really struggling to work out which subset of all the scummy stuff we're seeing constitutes grounds for an actual vote.

I mean, I'd love to have been correct about my early "scumslip" comment that pointed the finger at the two of them being scum together, but how often does stuff like that work out?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 19, 2018, 11:23:11 am
White knighting is a scum tactic

No it's not.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 19, 2018, 11:24:04 am
so my intuition about raptor is different. In a bayesian sense it seems reasonably likely that he lied. I think that's pretty strong evidence. If I don't misunderstand something.

vote: raptor
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 19, 2018, 11:39:01 am
so my intuition about raptor is different. In a bayesian sense it seems reasonably likely that he lied. I think that's pretty strong evidence. If I don't misunderstand something.

vote: raptor

Are you saying that you believe with some relatively high likelihood he explicitly was reading along with the thread at the time of the deadline? And that that outweighs all the other less disingenuous options such as:

1. Being only very occasionally in range of mobile signal and having his phone load a page in passing that he had requested a long time prior.

2. Having left a desktop tab open on the forum somewhere, and a script in that randomly making a request (I believe I read a thread discussing someone having inflated their "time on the site" stats that way, which is why I fully believe in "false positives" from Skumpy's method being a possibility.

3. Skumpy being scum and lying about having seen Raptor online, taking confidence from the fact that it's not retrospectively verifiable and town's response to his first admission of using "Who's Online" did not indicate that any of the rest of us are in the habit of using that.

I think it's really quite likely that Raptor didn't lie at all, even if Skumpy didn't lie either.

What do you consider to be the likelyhood of Skumpy being town?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 19, 2018, 11:56:36 am
Simon: If you're playing me, I am going to be so disappointed in you and even more disappointed in myself.

The same to you Skump. I don't know man. This whiteknighting, aka buddying, is pleasent but makes me nevertheless extremely suspicious. Halfway through I thought you were going to come out as Mason and that would be so so good, noew I just don't know... thanks.. I guess? But I'm not sure that anyone else could be convinced by this.,

Agree though that gkrieg/Robz is a very likely scumteam seeing how these days have been played out. Anyone else up for getting Robz today?
White knighting is a scum tactic where you vigorously defend a town player who is in danger of being lynched. Buddying is used by either alignment.

It's not an important discussion but to me white knighting is a IRL-term for needlessly defending someone else. Buddying have I only seen in scumterms since they are the only one that knows that they are supporting an opposite faction. Ah well. If Skumpy is scum he sorta did both anyway. If he's not, well, nice post, fam!

All this who's online business are really tiresome. In any case he wasn't involved and he didn't help us getting a better chance creating a wagon on scum yesterday so he is scummy to me either way. 
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 19, 2018, 12:46:43 pm
I'm open to a raptor vote. But do you agree that you were wrong on the time thing? He was online after the lynch happened, so there is no case on him based on not being there at the deadline ... right? Just trying to understand.

I was not wrong, I just wrote Tuesday when I meant to write Monday. And mistaken, wrong, lying, whatever.... throw that out if you want, if it's clouding your (general 'your') judgment.

As I said Space, ignore it if you want and I won't hold it against you. But tell me why you don't want to vote Raptor at this particular moment.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 19, 2018, 01:40:49 pm
What do you consider to be the likelyhood of Skumpy being town?

High. I'm back to townreading him.

so my intuition about raptor is different. In a bayesian sense it seems reasonably likely that he lied. I think that's pretty strong evidence. If I don't misunderstand something.

vote: raptor

Are you saying that you believe with some relatively high likelihood he explicitly was reading along with the thread at the time of the deadline? And that that outweighs all the other less disingenuous options such as: [...]

Maybe, but it doesn't need to outweigh other options. If it's like a 1/3 chance that he lied, that probably already makes him the person I want to lynch the most. It's not like he has much going for him in the first place.

But it's probably higher than that. Think about how he reacted: if it was some kind of open tab, wouldn't he have posted an explanation as soon as it became clear that skumpy was actually talking about the day of the deadline, and not the day before?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 19, 2018, 02:56:15 pm
What do you consider to be the likelyhood of Skumpy being town?

High. I'm back to townreading him.

Okay, then what do you think of gkrieg being so convinced that Skumpy is scum that he's had his vote there all day, and is not really engaging with the rest of the game to persuade anyone else of the fact?


Think about how he reacted: if it was some kind of open tab, wouldn't he have posted an explanation as soon as it became clear that skumpy was actually talking about the day of the deadline, and not the day before?

His most recent post in the game is a question to Skumpy at #528: "Your statement confuses me, when do you believe that I was online?". I take that to mean that he's not even fully aware of what Skumpy's trying to say or where Skumpy's evidence is coming from. It's evidence that Raptor is not paying attention to the game, and as lynches go, at worst he's low-utility town whose loss isn't going to impact us except in the numbers game, but I don't think it's damning evidence that he's scum. It's not like he asked "How do you know I was online" or something...

In response to why I'm not that keen on voting him, conf!town!galz was warning people against jumping on Raptor in D1, and Raptor really does seem an easy sort of mislynch to push because he's barely doing anything. Quite early in D2, I figured that if I'm going to give a D2 pass to anyone,

I think there are more interesting lurkers who could be more dangerous if they're scum. Robz, for one. Maybe TA, if he's actually a strong vet. I also think there are more informative low-utility towns to lynch: Simon's flip would help with wagon analysis D1, and could go some way to helping people trust Skumpy if he really does flip town. So as a single lynch prospect, he's just not the most interesting at all.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Twistedarcher on August 19, 2018, 03:58:28 pm
Internet is still out, unfortunately. But I'll go ago and say I'm a mason, and Iguana's partner.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 19, 2018, 04:45:48 pm
Internet is still out, unfortunately. But I'll go ago and say I'm a mason, and Iguana's partner.

I believe it, there's certainly been evidence for you. If you want to allude to Iguana's suspicions, that would alleviate any remaining doubt I have.

Sorry for trying to kill you D1. And D2. I guess I was the one scum was laughing at D1. All the more so if Simon flips scum.

In light of that, this makes me strongly suspect Robz now that I'm reasonably confident 4 of the 5 on his wagon for the main part of D1 were town, with him as the odd man out. I'd still rather persecute the swimmers at this point in time. That threesome of {Robz, DatSwan, Raptor} is creepy-crawling with scum, mark my words. Or maybe not.


His most recent post in the game is a question to Skumpy at #528: "Your statement confuses me, when do you believe that I was online?". I take that to mean that he's not even fully aware of what Skumpy's trying to say or where Skumpy's evidence is coming from. It's evidence that Raptor is not paying attention to the game, and as lynches go, at worst he's low-utility town whose loss isn't going to impact us except in the numbers game, but I don't think it's damning evidence that he's scum. It's not like he asked "How do you know I was online" or something...

In response to why I'm not that keen on voting him, conf!town!galz was warning people against jumping on Raptor in D1, and Raptor really does seem an easy sort of mislynch to push because he's barely doing anything. Quite early in D2, I figured that if I'm going to give a D2 pass to anyone,

I think there are more interesting lurkers who could be more dangerous if they're scum. Robz, for one. Maybe TA, if he's actually a strong vet. I also think there are more informative low-utility towns to lynch: Simon's flip would help with wagon analysis D1, and could go some way to helping people trust Skumpy if he really does flip town. So as a single lynch prospect, he's just not the most interesting at all.


Galz said that D1. I agreed. It's now D2. Barely doing anything is why he wasn't pushed the first time he was scum. I highly disagree that we get nothing out of him flipping. If he were town, that would all but force me to vote Robz (though it might be too late because I'm basically guaranteed to be the lynch tomorrow if that happens). And if he were scum, that would all but clear EFHW for me, one of YOUR top scumreads (I don't believe Raptor busses EFHW given a totally equal option between her and ss once he goes VLA. Unless both are scum). You say there's not damning evidence that he's scum; what damning evidence do you have that anybody's scum? You have now elevated up my scumread list for that post.

Also: why is Simon 'low-utility'?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 19, 2018, 04:56:20 pm
Internet is still out, unfortunately. But I'll go ago and say I'm a mason, and Iguana's partner.

Interesting. I have to do a reread.

I don't mind SpaceA:s comment on my low-utility, compared to an engaged town!Robz or town!silver I'm a better mislynch, but eh, don't mislynch me.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 19, 2018, 06:27:22 pm
Here is where I am at, I was not online and I didnít have service at the time of day end. Before I left for my trip I cast my vote for the person that had the most votes and I thought was a better choice between the two (there was a tie at the time). I stated that I was going to be vla 48 hours before I left and stated what I was going to do. I felt I was better off leaving my vote on someone with a wagon vs someone random. If you choose not to believe me thatís fine but I donít some any explanation for skumpster ďseeing me online that dayĒ.

I also believe the possible team is skumpy, silver and ??

They seem to have a lot of trust for each other that I simply would not give to to another player unless I knew their  alignment.

I also believe TAís claim. Donít think we would lie.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 19, 2018, 07:46:16 pm
Galz said that D1. I agreed. It's now D2. Barely doing anything is why he wasn't pushed the first time he was scum.

I was willing to give it another day, but TA's new revelation means we have more PoE to play with, so I'll put him back in my pool.

Also: why is Simon 'low-utility'?

His post at #563 was pretty defeatist, and he's missed all chances to scum-hunt, offering no fresh cases. Even if he's town, I don't know whether he's got the experience to shake off the suspicion and help deliver a win as well as other players might. What's your expectation here?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 19, 2018, 07:54:10 pm
Internet is still out, unfortunately. But I'll go ago and say I'm a mason, and Iguana's partner.

Catching up - but first..

I am inclined to believe that this is true.

Neither of them voted for each other at any point in time.
Then at the end of D1 they moved TOGETHER from wagon to wagon until the Galz lynch.

TA is removed from my pool for now.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 19, 2018, 07:56:52 pm
White knighting is a scum tactic

No it's not.

Are you trying to say that Skum does NOT WN as a tactic?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 19, 2018, 08:00:53 pm
And while I'm dissecting Swan's post:

Pay attention boys and girls, this is where shit gets fun...

Might I suggest that instead of using "boys and girls", you try on some alternatives like "everyone", "folks", "towns and scums", or "assorted netizens"? Such phrases would not only be more attention-grabbing and linguistically fun, but also more accurate for your current audience, too :-)

mb Space, I forget sometimes.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 19, 2018, 08:12:49 pm
Okay, here's an attempt at distilling Swan's big long post at #487 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=18873.msg764935#msg764935) into something more concise.

1. Masons shoot stuff. This was unknown to most players.

2. He posts the vote count as of #396, which was current through till #421 when EFHW switched, and hypothesizes that there is at least one scum on each of the wagons amongst the non-conf!town players. Leaving his name in the pool this time, this gives:
  • At least one scum in {silver, Space, Swan, gkrieg EFHW}
  • At least one scum in {Robz, Skumpy, TA, Simon}
3. He claims that Skumpy was the only present-and-active person capable of hammering Simon. Not sure why that's such a big point, or where Iguana went in his reasoning.

4. He then ignores all his previous reasoning, and points out that silver is super-scummy because he posted intent to switch as we reached the two-minutes-to-deadline mark, and switched with under 60 seconds to spare, and this timing contributes to him being "scummy as hell".

5. A contributing factor to silver's scumminess is that he was Galz's top scumread, which has nothing to do with all the preceding vote analysis either.


Additional notes/opinions from me:

1. I have no idea what Swan means by "IDK its not hammer hammer" -- I can't see any post of silver's matching that.

2. I think it would be weird that scum!silver would stick with his stated scumread till 47 seconds before the deadline if he's really interested in lynching Galz, when super!townie!Iguana's pleas were clearly justification enough for other moves from Simon to Galz only a few minutes earlier.

1) I admitted to my stupidity already.

2) I will of course leave myself out of PoV posts. Not sure if this was just an updated list or what?

3) Skumpy being the only present and active person is a HUGE point. It means we had someone around and they did not hammer... Since Galz and the person leading the Galz lynch both flipped TOWN... it is absolutely relevant. And I took the II bit out because they of course had already flipped town, so their intent is irrelevant from this perspective.

4) I do not understand how this undermines my previous reasoning. If it is regarding the "only person that can hammer" I would point out that SS couldn't hammer.. then they switched, then they hammered.

5) Galz was Town. Galz is right... a lot... as town. It is def a side point, but I am not going to not factor it in.

Additional:
 
1) So it would be bc of posts like this :
Ok, hammer simon in the next minute or I hammer galz
Where SS could not actually do what they were saying - as Galz was L-2.

2) Right. It is weird. Almost like SS was either aware it was a TvT wagon not wanting it to go to No Lynch or aware they were bussing super hard on Simon and wanted to make sure Galz was the lynch.


This is unlike you. All this information is like... very readily available. I am not really inferring anything from posts, the posts are just there and I pointed them out.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 19, 2018, 08:24:31 pm
I've been doing some wagon-gazing. Some of this necessarily only works from the mindset where I'm conf!town, but I'm posting it as a template that the rest of you might apply to draw your own conclusions.

Firstly, at #247, the votes look like this:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (2): SpaceAnemone, Galzria
SpaceAnemone (1): EFHW
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
Simon Jester (1): silverspawn
Not Voting (1): DatSwan

-- That EFHW wagon stays static for over 30 posts. I'm going to take that to mean that either EFHW is scum, or someone on her wagon is. And since 2/3 of those wagoners are conf!town, that means a 1-v-1 with EFHW and Raptor.

Secondly, the early Simon wagon around #289-#323: (showing voting at #289)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, TwistedArcher

-- So either Simon is scum, or someone on his tail is. That means at least one of {Simon, silver, Swan} is scum. People who aren't me will probably want to add me into this constraint.

Thirdly, the later Galz wagon #338-#396: (showing voting at #338)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (3): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan
TwistedArcher (1): EFHW
Galzria (5): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Simon Jester, TwistedArcher

-- This time, Galz, Iguana and TA are conf!town. That means at least one of {Robz, Skumpy, Simon} is scum.

Those three constraints alone are enough to whittle the scum pool a bit for me, though there's nothing quite as conclusive as I'd like. I need to find some more good corners of the rolling vote count to add to the constraints. Anyone interested in contributing a favourite and/or contesting what I've hypothesized so far?

I invite comments from people in the various pools, since townies in the three-person pools get even better PoE than I do here. I would also have expected at least one of EFHW and Raptor to express suspicion on the other.

PPE: 4
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 19, 2018, 08:34:26 pm
I've been doing some wagon-gazing. Some of this necessarily only works from the mindset where I'm conf!town, but I'm posting it as a template that the rest of you might apply to draw your own conclusions.

Firstly, at #247, the votes look like this:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (2): SpaceAnemone, Galzria
SpaceAnemone (1): EFHW
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
Simon Jester (1): silverspawn
Not Voting (1): DatSwan

-- That EFHW wagon stays static for over 30 posts. I'm going to take that to mean that either EFHW is scum, or someone on her wagon is. And since 2/3 of those wagoners are conf!town, that means a 1-v-1 with EFHW and Raptor.

Secondly, the early Simon wagon around #289-#323: (showing voting at #289)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, TwistedArcher

-- So either Simon is scum, or someone on his tail is. That means at least one of {Simon, silver, Swan} is scum. People who aren't me will probably want to add me into this constraint.

Thirdly, the later Galz wagon #338-#396: (showing voting at #338)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (3): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan
TwistedArcher (1): EFHW
Galzria (5): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Simon Jester, TwistedArcher

-- This time, Galz, Iguana and TA are conf!town. That means at least one of {Robz, Skumpy, Simon} is scum.

Those three constraints alone are enough to whittle the scum pool a bit for me, though there's nothing quite as conclusive as I'd like. I need to find some more good corners of the rolling vote count to add to the constraints. Anyone interested in contributing a favourite and/or contesting what I've hypothesized so far?

I invite comments from people in the various pools, since townies in the three-person pools get even better PoE than I do here. I would also have expected at least one of EFHW and Raptor to express suspicion on the other.

PPE: 4

I share your opinion on the EFHW part.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 19, 2018, 08:35:19 pm
I've been doing some wagon-gazing. Some of this necessarily only works from the mindset where I'm conf!town, but I'm posting it as a template that the rest of you might apply to draw your own conclusions.

Firstly, at #247, the votes look like this:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (2): SpaceAnemone, Galzria
SpaceAnemone (1): EFHW
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
Simon Jester (1): silverspawn
Not Voting (1): DatSwan

-- That EFHW wagon stays static for over 30 posts. I'm going to take that to mean that either EFHW is scum, or someone on her wagon is. And since 2/3 of those wagoners are conf!town, that means a 1-v-1 with EFHW and Raptor.

Secondly, the early Simon wagon around #289-#323: (showing voting at #289)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, TwistedArcher

-- So either Simon is scum, or someone on his tail is. That means at least one of {Simon, silver, Swan} is scum. People who aren't me will probably want to add me into this constraint.

Thirdly, the later Galz wagon #338-#396: (showing voting at #338)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (3): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan
TwistedArcher (1): EFHW
Galzria (5): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Simon Jester, TwistedArcher

-- This time, Galz, Iguana and TA are conf!town. That means at least one of {Robz, Skumpy, Simon} is scum.

Those three constraints alone are enough to whittle the scum pool a bit for me, though there's nothing quite as conclusive as I'd like. I need to find some more good corners of the rolling vote count to add to the constraints. Anyone interested in contributing a favourite and/or contesting what I've hypothesized so far?

I invite comments from people in the various pools, since townies in the three-person pools get even better PoE than I do here. I would also have expected at least one of EFHW and Raptor to express suspicion on the other.

PPE: 4

I share your opinion on the EFHW part.
But TA is a mason and II is dead town and I do not think Raptor is skum. But if you wanna get a EFHW thing going I am on board.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 19, 2018, 08:48:51 pm
You are assuming any stalled wagon with 3 or more members has scum on it or is on scum. There is no definite 1:1 between me and raptor. The wagon stalling isn't that informative. The 5 and 6 member wagons are more likely to have scum on them, but that is also not guaranteed.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 19, 2018, 08:49:15 pm
You are assuming any stalled wagon with 3 or more members has scum on it or is on scum. There is no definite 1:1 between me and raptor. The wagon stalling isn't that informative. The 5 and 6 member wagons are more likely to have scum on them, but that is also not guaranteed.
Addressed to Space
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 19, 2018, 10:00:10 pm
Sorry guys. School is starting up soon and I may not have anough time for this. Iíll see how it goes though.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 19, 2018, 11:04:08 pm
All this who's online business are really tiresome. In any case he wasn't involved and he didn't help us getting a better chance creating a wagon on scum yesterday so he is scummy to me either way.

Sorry IRL stuff didnít let me get more involved as I was out of town once things got rolling.  But I donít think you helped find scum very much day 1 either.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 19, 2018, 11:05:56 pm
I've been doing some wagon-gazing. Some of this necessarily only works from the mindset where I'm conf!town, but I'm posting it as a template that the rest of you might apply to draw your own conclusions.

Firstly, at #247, the votes look like this:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (2): SpaceAnemone, Galzria
SpaceAnemone (1): EFHW
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
Simon Jester (1): silverspawn
Not Voting (1): DatSwan

-- That EFHW wagon stays static for over 30 posts. I'm going to take that to mean that either EFHW is scum, or someone on her wagon is. And since 2/3 of those wagoners are conf!town, that means a 1-v-1 with EFHW and Raptor.

Secondly, the early Simon wagon around #289-#323: (showing voting at #289)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, TwistedArcher

-- So either Simon is scum, or someone on his tail is. That means at least one of {Simon, silver, Swan} is scum. People who aren't me will probably want to add me into this constraint.

Thirdly, the later Galz wagon #338-#396: (showing voting at #338)
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (3): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan
TwistedArcher (1): EFHW
Galzria (5): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Simon Jester, TwistedArcher

-- This time, Galz, Iguana and TA are conf!town. That means at least one of {Robz, Skumpy, Simon} is scum.

Those three constraints alone are enough to whittle the scum pool a bit for me, though there's nothing quite as conclusive as I'd like. I need to find some more good corners of the rolling vote count to add to the constraints. Anyone interested in contributing a favourite and/or contesting what I've hypothesized so far?

I invite comments from people in the various pools, since townies in the three-person pools get even better PoE than I do here. I would also have expected at least one of EFHW and Raptor to express suspicion on the other.

PPE: 4

Iíll get to this later tonight
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 19, 2018, 11:40:07 pm
Skumpy reread:

Hello

Hello

Hello.

Man, this flavor got real fast. Hope LaLight's OK.
In other news, would anybody like to have a coalition with me? I don't vote you, you don't vote me, unless there's reasonable confidence that the other's scum?

He starts with this coalition thing. He later claims that it is premeditated, but I think it is just something that he did so that he would have something to do at the beginning of the game. I guess I don't read it as scummy as much anymore.

Skumpster!!!
You wanna befriends?

If it's an offer that extends through an as-yet-to-to-specified number of days, then yes! Otherwise, I might have to just settle for Iguana and D1. Or anybody else who'd like to make a deal.

vote: skumpy on principle.

Sheesh. I guess I still owe you one. I wanna vote you but I won't; consider it an early gift for Wednesday.

Also, hi TA: I've clicked on your profile a few times.
And hi Simon: I'd give you newbie advice, but I know you've done a pretty good job of showing yourself the ropes.
Hi everyone else.

Next he gives this advice to Simon, which just seems fake.  Seems like they have talked before.  Obviously this only matters if one of them flips scum.

Skumpy then talks about not trusting people that trust him, and does lots of buddying.

That was a pretty scummy post of mine, wasn't it? Ah well. I'll be back in a few hours, when I can do some more thinking.

This is very self-concious.  Scummy

I only have one with ss. If others donít want to vote for me, fine by me.

I see you Simon, but canít at the moment. Iíll get back to this shortly.

He also has lots of these I'll get back to this shortly, which I know I do a lot as scum.

I actually think skumpy is scum here.

I feel like it's still too early to say, but you seem really sure.

As sure as you can be with a couple days

I've typed out like 10 different responses, and none of them feel right. So I'll just keep it short and sweet: no

Meantime, I'm bored. If you guys generally don't have any controversial opinions or reads to share, then give us something interesting, like a personal anecdote or a joke or something.

He is bored, but doesn't want to engage with the person that is calling him scummy.

"If I end up as scum again and discover that my scumplay is actually quite transparent, maybe things will change. Right now, I'm doing what feels natural. And as town this game, that's especially easy." Part of his response to me saying he was trying to conform to his meta.  The last part where he reaffirms he is town this game just seems scummy to me.

I realize there is a lot of bias I have going into this reread.

You know what, it's time to shut about me. I've done way too good a job of taking attention off scum.

Let's ramble about the Galz wagon, which I am indeed currently on.
He has given me nothing to think he's town. My reasons for voting, however, like all D1 reasons, are weak at best. And probably wrong. Additionally, I'm honestly not sure if it's a good vote, going strictly by expected value. I know from experience he's a good town player who can figure the lies out. It would be a shame to lose that D1. Additionally, it would be a shame to throw suspicion on the townies who cause a lynch and save scum from having to use a nightkill on him. But if he's scum, then that's a huge asset, not only by getting rid of a good player, but by putting scum in an uncomfortable position of whether or not they want to bus this.

Which is more important to do in this game, I'm too new to say. So I guess I'm going to side with inertia and wait and see what happens.

Here again he is trying to get the spotlight off of himself.


Both of those things together, it's seems to me highly likely there's a scum in {Iguana, ss, TA, Skumpy}. There's already an 86% chance of that, but whatever. And of that group, there's one I can't vote for, there's one I won't vote for, and there's one I'd be happy to vote for but would rather stick around longer because I pity it. So therefore, TA it is.

So that's me. Wrong? Possibly. Logical? I'd like to think so.

So how do you feel about this group of 4 people now?

He pushes heavily against the Simon wagon (obviously we don't know Simon's alignment), something to think about later.

Galz is an okey lynch. Not the best, but it's worth a shot. Vote: Galzria

Skumpys reaction to gkriegs scumread is... weird. Your olay today has been outlandish and it's not surprising at all someone regards it as very scummy. I don't agree with gkrieg, but can't say my townread on you is the strongest one ever.

Hope to be here at deadline but might not make it.

Scumreading isn't what bothers me. It's the tunnel, which lends itself to complete unhelpfulness.

So Galz is going to vote Simon. gkrieg's going to vote Simon because I'm not. Even if EFHW votes Galz, it's still 6-5, and there's basically nobody on the Simon wagon that I think could swing.

To respond to gkrieg: As I once said, I don't like Galz ignoring the coalition and all the responses. I feel like it got the game out of RVS pretty quickly, and those are the kinds of situations that Galz loves to look at to figure out who responded scummily. It feels like a cop-out on his part to say I'm skummy and leave it at that.

It remains to be seen, of course, but I'm not sure this is a dual-town wagon. The Galz wagon is interesting, and the people on it are interesting.

Not sure of deadline status. Around for most of the next few hours, but probably a biggish break somewhere. Maybe during deadline, maybe before.

Like this seems like pretty heavy pushing away from Simon.  He also says the Galz wagon is interesting, which is not a good enough reason to be voting for it IMO.

Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?

Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...

These two votes just reek of scum.  Obviously this is with the caveat that Simon is also scum, which is a huge assumption.

Also someone who is that self-concious about their posts, I don't know, it just seems like he felt like he needed to post something to not look scummy for not voting for Simon.

Anyway, that's where I kind of stop reading (he is hard to reread because of so much text).

Much of my read is dependent on us not having a both town EOD yesterday and Simon being scum, which is incredibly situational.  I still just get the gut vibe that Skumpy is scum.  I'll look in to more stuff tomorrow.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 20, 2018, 12:28:32 am
White knighting is a scum tactic

No it's not.

Are you trying to say that Skum does NOT WN as a tactic?

ye.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 20, 2018, 12:31:40 am
His most recent post in the game is a question to Skumpy at #528: "Your statement confuses me, when do you believe that I was online?". I take that to mean that he's not even fully aware of what Skumpy's trying to say or where Skumpy's evidence is coming from. It's evidence that Raptor is not paying attention to the game, and as lynches go, at worst he's low-utility town whose loss isn't going to impact us except in the numbers game, but I don't think it's damning evidence that he's scum.

Ok, yes. You're right. Forget his reaction. But even then, compared to say Robz he has this thing going on, which could conceivably be a tell. Robz has nothing going on. And last time I felt that his [Robz'] performance was weak and it had to mean he's scum he was just town.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 20, 2018, 02:37:25 am
Many big stuffs!

Also: why is Simon 'low-utility'?

His post at #563 was pretty defeatist, and he's missed all chances to scum-hunt, offering no fresh cases. Even if he's town, I don't know whether he's got the experience to shake off the suspicion and help deliver a win as well as other players might. What's your expectation here?

There's 2 forms of utility. Being able to catch scum and being able to convince town you're not scum. Simon's fulfilled the 2nd, apparently only for me. I understand where you're coming from given that you're his top scum read, but, assuming that is he town,  his vote has been haphazard enough and he's been willing enough to listen to my points at any rate that if you, Space, are indeed town, there's hope yet for you to convince him otherwise.


Swan's case: If ss is scum, I don't think the EOD hammer situation is the place to be looking for the evidence. Mostly because I still say it was dual-town. Even if I'm wrong and Simon is scum, then that should make ss town for you, and nullify the entire case. Not to say there isn't stuff against ss (stay tuned for more!)


Space's voting analysis: I have fallen into the trap of requiring there to be scum in subsets before, and I'd be careful about using absolutes. I've seen days involving dual-town wagons, and have made similar observations as you, only to find the entire scum team was on one wagon and the other wagon and VLAers consisted of more than half the town and no scum. Scum does not necessarily need to spread themselves thin, grouping up can be a viable strategy, since it's apparently not something you believe is likely.

Having said all that: there is some good stuff. The Simon wagon tells me next to nothing, I don't care about finding the scum in 4 people at this point. The Galz wagon is more interesting. As I've said before, if you are right in your conclusion and I am right in my white knighting, then I would know Robz is scum. But again: it's a dangerous conclusion to be made. Partly because if Robz is lynched today and is town, I'm lynched tomorrow after TA dies tonight, and then the game's over. You also look at the wagons closely without acknowledging Raptor's non-presence on them. If Raptor's scum, then there's only 2 scum between the 2 wagons, and there's a lot more possibilities, eh?

The Raptor-EFHW thing is more interesting. ss's activity on that wagon ought to make him a candidate as well, and then there's all but certainly a scum in those 3. I've said before Raptor's scum flip would make me feel town on EFHW, so there I shall stay. I guess the vice versa would be true too, but I think Raptor's more likely than EFHW to be scum.


Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 20, 2018, 02:54:42 am
gkrieg, you're trying to find Skumpy as scummy. What you need to be doing is trying to find Skumpy as Skummy. I play much differently than everybody else, lumping me under the same standards is going to lead you astray, as it already has. Any time you mention 'self-conscious', my response is 'That's how I play'. The less scummy you think I'm being, the more Skummy I am.

I'll hunt and peck your stuff:

"Lot's of get back to this shortly": I don't plan on making big cases lying in bed in the morning. I don't plan on making big cases in the time just before I leave work. And if you still think saying this stuff is scummy, how about you read the post right before your last big one?

Bored: Yeah, it was a really slow day. Nothing interesting happened. I tried to respond to you, I did type like 10 things that seemed witty to me and would seem stupid to everybody else, so I just cut it. Your entire case through D1 was "I'm pretty sure he's scum". How am I supposed to respond to that?.

Spotlight: At the time, I felt all I was doing was talking about my meta which leads town absolutely nowhere if I suck them in and get them chiming in. Finding scum involves making sure I'm not the center of attention, which still probably happens more than I'd like.

Group of 4: I'm glad you asked! And that somebody asked. More on that later.

Interesting wagon: By interesting, I mean Iguana and Simon were there. And I wanted to be with them rather than against them. So basically the same reasons you voted Simon.

I really haven't been posting all that many long posts. Not until the last couple IRL days at any rate. It's like a 1000% improvement over my posts of yore, sorry if that bores you.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 20, 2018, 03:19:02 am
Let's chit chat about ss now, shall we?

As a reminder, this was my case D1 against TA (and ss):

@Skumpy What do my posts have to do with your voting TA?

I enjoy saying cryptic remarks, and explaining later.


Here's where I'm at right now.

I find Iguana very townie at this point. I haven't played with him much before, but he's active, and that counts for something. More than something. And furthermore, I like his posts, and I like the way he's playing. There's a lot he has going for him.

Now there's 2 possibilities.

1. I'm way, way wrong, and Iguana is in fact scum. I don't believe it now. But if it's true, this game will not go very smoothly.

2. I'm right, and Iguana is town. Iguana has posted so much at this point that people surely have to be townreading the lizard, right? No! Because by my count, only 3 have. And when you're scum, you want to be posting correct townreads D1 to gain credibility, and preferably on the most townie people. If Iguana is town, 3 other people here know this. I have to think that one is going to take notice of his talkative play and give him town status, or at least townie. Which doesn't leave many possibilities.

Both of those things together, it's seems to me highly likely there's a scum in {Iguana, ss, TA, Skumpy}. There's already an 86% chance of that, but whatever. And of that group, there's one I can't vote for, there's one I won't vote for, and there's one I'd be happy to vote for but would rather stick around longer because I pity it. So therefore, TA it is.

So that's me. Wrong? Possibly. Logical? I'd like to think so.

Also worth noting that in direct response, Iguana said 'good case! I'm voting ss!', which was the bulk of the evidence for me of TA being the mason.

Now, given that I'm town, that Iguana is town, and that TA is all but certain town, it seems ss must be scum based on the case. I must admit that I had largely ignored this for the better part of D2 in favor of other theories, but as the day's progressed and TA has revealed himself as mason, silver has launched up my scum reads, despite his direct protestations that he wouldn't white knight as scum (as a reminder, I don't care about white knight in the case, only about townread). Why am I not voting there right now? A couple reasons.

First and foremost, the coalition, which we said would be through D2. Am I breaking it? Well, not yet sadly (cue Galz pulling out his hair and screaming from the grave). There are other candidates at this point who I do have my eye on. Namely Raptor. However, whereas yesterday I said I would not start/join a wagon on ss and would not hammer him even if it was needed, today I am sorry to tell you, ss, that I will be nullifying the latter part of that. If there are 5 votes on him and you need the hammer from me, just call my name and I'll be there.

Secondly: As previously mentioned, I'd rather be on Raptor for the time being. The big reason is that there is something in the ss/Raptor team that wants examination. I'm well aware ss is the only other person on the Raptor wagon, and that me posting this could drive him away.

But:

So in conclusion: not voting ss right now because I don't need to be. If I believe both are scum, I'll vote for the one I'm more confident in as being scum and the one who I didn't make a promise to.


Question for Swan: Why do you think Raptor is town?

Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: LaLight on August 20, 2018, 07:15:56 am
What do you feel now?

Vote Count 2.3


Skumpy (2): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (1): DatSwan
Xxraptorslayer96 (2): Skumpy, silverspawn
Simon Jester (1): Robz888
SpaceAnemone (2): Simon Jester, EFHW
Not Voting: (2) Twistedarcher, SpaceAnemone

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 20, 2018, 07:41:17 am
I've seen days involving dual-town wagons, and have made similar observations as you, only to find the entire scum team was on one wagon and the other wagon and VLAers consisted of more than half the town and no scum. Scum does not necessarily need to spread themselves thin, grouping up can be a viable strategy, since it's apparently not something you believe is likely.

I'm picking three relatively stalled wagons, and in each case saying that I believe that either the wagon should be on scum, or that scum should have had time to try to get onto it. I'm being careful to state "at least one of" certain groups of people should be quite likely to be scum, rather than "exactly one of".

And sure, I accept that picking three criteria and ignoring scenarios that don't exactly fit those three would be shortsighted of me. I'd feel happier with more evidence and more constraints, and a "softer" application of constraints, but I'm working with what I have.

Raptor's scum, then there's only 2 scum between the 2 wagons, and there's a lot more possibilities, eh?

That's why I was looking at the earlier game as well. And if Raptor is scum, that makes me a lot more confident of EFHW being town.

The Raptor-EFHW thing is more interesting. ss's activity on that wagon ought to make him a candidate as well, and then there's all but certainly a scum in those 3.

Agreed. Though note that both silver and Simon were on the wagon earlier. It's the period of the game around #250 that I'm looking at in particular. The EFHW wagon is stalled at 3 people (EFHW and Raptor being the unknowns), and the other obvious wagon is on TA, with Robz, you and Simon. What are the scums trying to do at that point in the game if the EFHW wagon is three-towns-on-town?

This is how things looked at #278:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
Simon Jester (3): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan

Your hypothesis is that both Raptor and silver are scum, which makes EFHW look really townie. She's the next person to join that three-person TA wagon, so from your PoV, then Robz is almost definitely the third of the trio, given your vigorous defence of Simon. Does that work for you? If not, who is the third scum here, and what is their motivation with the current voting pattern that made them want to stay away from two good town-on-town wagons?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 20, 2018, 08:04:24 am
You are assuming any stalled wagon with 3 or more members has scum on it or is on scum. There is no definite 1:1 between me and raptor. The wagon stalling isn't that informative. The 5 and 6 member wagons are more likely to have scum on them, but that is also not guaranteed.

Yes, I'm not saying it's a guaranteed 1-v-1, but I'm surprised not to see more suspicion between the pair of you, particularly in the context of where the other current wagons were going. For example, see the last bit of my response to Skumpy, above.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 20, 2018, 08:31:39 am
Skumpy's case on silver seems to boil down to silver stating a townread on iguana Day 1. How does your scum!narrative account for his behavior at EOD?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 20, 2018, 08:34:33 am
today I am sorry to tell you, ss, that I will be nullifying the latter part of that. If there are 5 votes on him and you need the hammer from me, just call my name and I'll be there.

This is 100% unacceptable and makes you a liar. If you don't take that back next post I'll policy vote for you until you are lynched regardless of my read of you.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 20, 2018, 08:35:58 am
agreed that the case is bad.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 20, 2018, 08:37:16 am
@Space, you seem to be assuming ideal scum play at every point. I've noticed many people doing that in recent games, but it's extremely unlikely.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 20, 2018, 08:40:27 am
gkrieg's case on Skumpy is also super weak.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 20, 2018, 08:41:46 am
Honestly, the case is so bad that I'm townreading you pretty hard for making it. I read it again and it really only consists of me saying iguana is towny.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 20, 2018, 08:42:39 am
so do me the favor and don't violate truth because I really don't want to vote for you, but I will do it if you think you can just break a contract.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 20, 2018, 08:49:35 am
To back up on that, I think as town you have more of an inside view on the cases you make, and as scum more of an outside view. You certainly try to take on an inside view Ė at least I do that as scum Ė but in the end you usually evaluate it for how you think it'll be perceived. It's hard to see how that case survives such a process. And the other thing is that the group (Iguana, ss, TA, Skumpy) probably has no scum in them, which makes it even less likely to be a thing scum would say.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 20, 2018, 09:21:37 am
Falling behind here a bit, don't have much to add at the moment. Will try to catch up as soon as I can before deadline.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 20, 2018, 09:57:32 am
Falling behind here a bit, don't have much to add at the moment. Will try to catch up as soon as I can before deadline.

Same.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 20, 2018, 10:36:39 am
@Space, you seem to be assuming ideal scum play at every point. I've noticed many people doing that in recent games, but it's extremely unlikely.

The fact we haven't lynched scum yet means they're at least doing something right :-P

More seriously, I picked out three suggested constraints from a day and a half's voting history, and invited people to comment. Do you think any of my suggested deductions is likely to be true? If so, which, and with what level of confidence?

Are you just refusing to comment with any level of detail because of some kind of Awaclusian principle? Or do you think my entire approach is unworkably flawed? If the latter, what do you suggest instead?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 20, 2018, 12:40:26 pm
gkrieg's case on Skumpy is also super weak.

As I state in the case.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 20, 2018, 12:41:47 pm
Space and TA are just about 100% town for me right nowl
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 20, 2018, 12:58:41 pm
Space and TA are just about 100% town for me right nowl

Why? Afair, scum!space is calm and makes sense, just like they do here. What's the tell?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 20, 2018, 12:59:12 pm
(And if you have the same confidence in a claimed mason as you do in a totally unclaimed random person, I would accuse you of being poorly calibrated)
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 20, 2018, 01:35:49 pm
Space and TA are just about 100% town for me right nowl

Why? Afair, scum!space is calm and makes sense, just like they do here. What's the tell?

I won't tell you the tell, because then they would know the tell.  But you are correct that I have more confidence in TA, but he has seemed much less active, so my town read on space is from what they have said.  Basically I trust both of them a lot right now
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 20, 2018, 01:39:35 pm
ok, that's fair.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 20, 2018, 01:46:44 pm
The Raptor-EFHW thing is more interesting. ss's activity on that wagon ought to make him a candidate as well, and then there's all but certainly a scum in those 3.

Agreed. Though note that both silver and Simon were on the wagon earlier. It's the period of the game around #250 that I'm looking at in particular. The EFHW wagon is stalled at 3 people (EFHW and Raptor being the unknowns), and the other obvious wagon is on TA, with Robz, you and Simon. What are the scums trying to do at that point in the game if the EFHW wagon is three-towns-on-town?

This is how things looked at #278:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
Simon Jester (3): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan

Your hypothesis is that both Raptor and silver are scum, which makes EFHW look really townie. She's the next person to join that three-person TA wagon, so from your PoV, then Robz is almost definitely the third of the trio, given your vigorous defence of Simon. Does that work for you? If not, who is the third scum here, and what is their motivation with the current voting pattern that made them want to stay away from two good town-on-town wagons?

I won't speak for all people, but for me: as scum D1, I'm trying to make the most reasonable case possible, which means I may not be aiming for the most dangerous town or hopping on the biggest and easiest wagon. Gkrieg could be scum who thought I was doing a bad job as town and has tunneled me relentlessly. It would be a great move, since nobody's voted him. To be clear, it's also not a hypothesis I'm super confident I'm in, so I'm not ruling you and Swan out of the picture. Robz/ss/Raptor is certainly a possibility. It's not the only one.

Not a great answer, I apologize. But if I think EFHW is town, I don't understand how her move to a big wagon affects the people already there? I guess it's more Monty Hall.

Skumpy's case on silver seems to boil down to silver stating a townread on iguana Day 1. How does your scum!narrative account for his behavior at EOD?
I've answered this before. I believe it was a dual-town wagon. Therefore, I have no interest in the EOD. Scum tries to look towny as possible. silver could be town who wants to get a lynch through. silver could be scum acting like a town who wants to get a lynch through. Unless Simon's scum, I don't care. As for the case based on a townread on Iguana, it started that way, but after a readthrough, I feel like there's more to it than that.



To ss: That's fair, and I was trying to set a precedent here for something, so sure. But even if I was to stick to my breaking-of-the-contract due to strong confidence in my theory, I have a tough time imagining you getting lynched over Raptor today, so it probably would never have come to it anyways.


But as for the case being bad, I would strongly disagree with that. It's my case, but still. Of the bulleted list, #3 might be a stretch, #4 may not be that relevant. Of the other 3, where is my logic going wrong? Yes, this is mainly based on my feeling that Raptor is scum, so it could be way off. Therefore, I need to try to verify it by voting Raptor (though you being scum without Raptor could also be a thing). And if Raptor flips scum, a lot can still happen, there's a very good chance I wouldn't vote you the next day.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 20, 2018, 01:50:15 pm
To ss: That's fair [...]

good.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 20, 2018, 01:53:45 pm
@Space, you seem to be assuming ideal scum play at every point. I've noticed many people doing that in recent games, but it's extremely unlikely.

The fact we haven't lynched scum yet means they're at least doing something right :-P

More seriously, I picked out three suggested constraints from a day and a half's voting history, and invited people to comment. Do you think any of my suggested deductions is likely to be true? If so, which, and with what level of confidence?

Are you just refusing to comment with any level of detail because of some kind of Awaclusian principle? Or do you think my entire approach is unworkably flawed? If the latter, what do you suggest instead?
You have my response to point #1. Points #2 and #3 don't help much. More later
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 20, 2018, 02:06:20 pm
The list at the end isn't as bad as the iguana thing. I'm mostly townreading you for that.

Ok, have a point-by-point response..

Quote
Raptor goes VLA, and votes EFHW over ss. Could be the case if both are town. Would definitely be the case if ss is scum, EFHW is town
If EFHW was confirmed town and raptor was confirmed scum, then I would certainly agree that this constitutes some evidence. Bayes says so. But neither of them are confirmed. None of all three are confirmed! All you have is unconfirmed player #1 voting for unconfirmed player #2 over unconfirmed player #3.

Also if bussing is a thing, then why didn't raptor bus? If bussing isn't a thing, then why am I actively trying to get raptor lynched? Am I particularly known to buss as scum? I don't think so.

Quote
Raptor lists me/silver/? as the team, because of the coalition, and then votes me. If I get lynched and flip town, hey, ss isn't so scummy any more, is he?
I'm pretty agnostic as to whether it would be easier to use this to argue that I'm scummy or townie.

Quote
Bussing? Yadda yadda. Scum ss could be in the mentality I caught Raptor red-handed and has to vote to save face? Maybe that's a stretch
This is an argument for me being town.

Quote
The Galz case against ss. That dang smarty pants, he knows everything!
There is basically no overlap between your two cases. Do you think anything galz said was about me was alignment indicative? If so what?

Quote
The ss wagon EOD push was Galz, Simon, EFHW. I've said before I'm leaning town on EFHW because I'm leaning scum on Raptor. If I'm right on this and on Simon (more assumptions! Yay!), that makes this a 3 town wagon
Only galz is confirmed town. The other two are my second biggest scum read and a null read.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 20, 2018, 02:10:38 pm
So. I certainly think that you should think that I am very likely town in the event that raptor flips  scum.

But, if you disagree, that's fine, as long as you are consistent. Right now I'm worried that either raptor will flip scum and you'll say that'll make me scum because he didn't vote for me once, or he'll flip town and that'll make me scum because I was trying to get him lynched. Both of these things seem rationalizable.

So how about you tell me right now which outcome makes me look better in your book? That way you don't get to choose afterwards.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 20, 2018, 03:10:03 pm
The list at the end isn't as bad as the iguana thing. I'm mostly townreading you for that.

Ok, have a point-by-point response..

Quote
Raptor goes VLA, and votes EFHW over ss. Could be the case if both are town. Would definitely be the case if ss is scum, EFHW is town
If EFHW was confirmed town and raptor was confirmed scum, then I would certainly agree that this constitutes some evidence. Bayes says so. But neither of them are confirmed. None of all three are confirmed! All you have is unconfirmed player #1 voting for unconfirmed player #2 over unconfirmed player #3.

Also if bussing is a thing, then why didn't raptor bus? If bussing isn't a thing, then why am I actively trying to get raptor lynched? Am I particularly known to buss as scum? I don't think so.

Quote
Raptor lists me/silver/? as the team, because of the coalition, and then votes me. If I get lynched and flip town, hey, ss isn't so scummy any more, is he?
I'm pretty agnostic as to whether it would be easier to use this to argue that I'm scummy or townie.

Quote
Bussing? Yadda yadda. Scum ss could be in the mentality I caught Raptor red-handed and has to vote to save face? Maybe that's a stretch
This is an argument for me being town.

Quote
The Galz case against ss. That dang smarty pants, he knows everything!
There is basically no overlap between your two cases. Do you think anything galz said was about me was alignment indicative? If so what?

Quote
The ss wagon EOD push was Galz, Simon, EFHW. I've said before I'm leaning town on EFHW because I'm leaning scum on Raptor. If I'm right on this and on Simon (more assumptions! Yay!), that makes this a 3 town wagon
Only galz is confirmed town. The other two are my second biggest scum read and a null read.

1. Correct. So I'm voting Raptor to see. If he's scum, my trust for EFHW goes way up. I don't believe in a bus here because Raptor goes VLA. You don't park your vote on a teammate in this situation on D1. In general, bussing is a thing. For you, I don't know. I've never seen you as scum, I only have your word for it.

2. It seems easier to me to view you as scummy from this. Though I get that it could paint you as townie.

3. Don't see why. Null at best, though null most likely.

4. I think Galz and I just like to look at different things. It seems that he likes to use more of a tone based argument (not the right word for it, I don't how better to explain), I'm trying to use the most concrete evidence I can get my hands on. My initial suspicion of you was a result of POE, his was not. But the point is he's a smart guy. If he says something, he could be right. Unless it's about me. Again, this is another of the points I'm not placing too much weight on.

5. That Simon read is your choice. I think it's bad. More on that later. As for EFHW, you yourself have acknowledged scum Raptor makes town EFHW. This theory could be totally wrong IF Raptor is town. I don't know this until he flips. All I do know is I have given him numerous chances to try and prove himself this day, but he hasn't given anything.

So. I certainly think that you should think that I am very likely town in the event that raptor flips  scum.

But, if you disagree, that's fine, as long as you are consistent. Right now I'm worried that either raptor will flip scum and you'll say that'll make me scum because he didn't vote for me once, or he'll flip town and that'll make me scum because I was trying to get him lynched. Both of these things seem rationalizable.

So how about you tell me right now which outcome makes me look better in your book? That way you don't get to choose afterwards.

Admittedly, this actually was one of things I was thinking about, in that there is a case against you no matter the flip (and assuming TA is the NK). I'm not sure I can give you an answer to your satisfaction, but I do think there's a lot that can happen before a D3 vote. 12 vs 13 players bothers me a lot because we likely have only 1 safe mislynch left. If Raptor flips town, I'm probably dead tomorrow because people are going to trust me a lot less than do already. If they do at all, in some cases. There's no more 'narrowing down' opportunities, it's just straight up 'vote for the scummiest people'.

I'm going to reserve the right to change my mind D3 because this is mafia, opinions are like leaves in the wind. Meantime, I could vote you either way based on the flip, as you yourself were speculating. What I will say, however, is that with 3 scum left out of 7 unknowns if he flips town, my vote would probably go to Robz (or alternatively EFHW, based on my gut that this indeed a 1 v 1).

2 possibilities:
1. Simon is scum. 2 more scum. Where? Raptor would ideally be out of the picture by then. So either they're both bussing, or 1 chose not to. It's still unlikely to me Simon/EFHW is a team (choice between 5-5 of a town and scum, she picks the scum). So both scum were bussing early then? If that's not the case, there's only 1 remaining suspect: Robz.

2. Simon is town. 3 scum in that group of 6 voting him is a possibility, I need to keep that in mind. But if it's not, same reasoning as before applies. 6 of the 10 town were either VLA or voting Galz if Robz is town. Odd.

If he is scum, we still get the mislynch for narrowing down. I could reconsider my options then if there's another direction I want to go in.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 20, 2018, 03:26:19 pm
If raptor flipping town makes me more likely scum, than raptor flipping scum has to make me more likely town. This is an absolute incontrovertible law. P(A | B) > P(A) => P(A | not B) < P(A). I get that you don't want to settle on any thing, but I'd just like to point it out. if you think both fits your theory, then your theory is not consistent with the laws of probability.

That said, ok. Then let's just try to lynch raptor and tomorrow you can rationalize reason what to do next.

Anyone not wanting to lynch raptor: what's your alternative?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 20, 2018, 10:31:35 pm
If raptor flipping town makes me more likely scum, than raptor flipping scum has to make me more likely town. This is an absolute incontrovertible law. P(A | B) > P(A) => P(A | not B) < P(A). I get that you don't want to settle on any thing, but I'd just like to point it out. if you think both fits your theory, then your theory is not consistent with the laws of probability.

That said, ok. Then let's just try to lynch raptor and tomorrow you can rationalize reason what to do next.

Anyone not wanting to lynch raptor: what's your alternative?

Wasnít asked or me so i am not answering the question per se - but i would like to point out this is a faulty silogism. One could absolutely assume that ďif player A flips skum, they also think it makes Player B look skummy, while simotainiously assuming if Player A flips town it does not mean anything in regards to Player B.Ē

Perfect example would be the D1 wagon - if Simon would of been skum i would highly suspected Iguana as skum. However, if Simon were to lynch and be the Town, it would hold very little merit on Iguanaís alignment.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 21, 2018, 12:49:22 am
I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 21, 2018, 01:38:47 am


Question for Swan: Why do you think Raptor is town?

Missed this.
Short and simple - I got two reasons

Gut + the reception of your "Not VLA" thing.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 21, 2018, 01:40:27 am
I think it would be a good idea if TA were to choose a claim order in case we end up there tomorrow and they are killed tonight.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 21, 2018, 01:41:38 am
I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.

Kind of like this post?
You are flexing your "Town!Meta" too hard here bro
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 21, 2018, 01:45:22 am
Itís not intentional, Iím just utterly disengaged from this game for some reason.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 21, 2018, 01:45:51 am
Sorry that sounds blaming. Itís not anybodyís fault but mine
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 21, 2018, 01:47:29 am
If raptor flipping town makes me more likely scum, than raptor flipping scum has to make me more likely town. This is an absolute incontrovertible law. P(A | B) > P(A) => P(A | not B) < P(A). I get that you don't want to settle on any thing, but I'd just like to point it out. if you think both fits your theory, then your theory is not consistent with the laws of probability.

That said, ok. Then let's just try to lynch raptor and tomorrow you can rationalize reason what to do next.

Anyone not wanting to lynch raptor: what's your alternative?
\

you?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 21, 2018, 01:48:20 am
Sorry that sounds blaming. Itís not anybodyís fault but mine
Life sucks. Then you post.... at least like a maybe a reads list?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 21, 2018, 01:55:26 am
The list at the end isn't as bad as the iguana thing. I'm mostly townreading you for that.

Ok, have a point-by-point response..

Quote
Raptor goes VLA, and votes EFHW over ss. Could be the case if both are town. Would definitely be the case if ss is scum, EFHW is town
If EFHW was confirmed town and raptor was confirmed scum, then I would certainly agree that this constitutes some evidence. Bayes says so. But neither of them are confirmed. None of all three are confirmed! All you have is unconfirmed player #1 voting for unconfirmed player #2 over unconfirmed player #3.

Also if bussing is a thing, then why didn't raptor bus? If bussing isn't a thing, then why am I actively trying to get raptor lynched? Am I particularly known to buss as scum? I don't think so.

Quote
Raptor lists me/silver/? as the team, because of the coalition, and then votes me. If I get lynched and flip town, hey, ss isn't so scummy any more, is he?
I'm pretty agnostic as to whether it would be easier to use this to argue that I'm scummy or townie.

Quote
Bussing? Yadda yadda. Scum ss could be in the mentality I caught Raptor red-handed and has to vote to save face? Maybe that's a stretch
This is an argument for me being town.

Quote
The Galz case against ss. That dang smarty pants, he knows everything!
There is basically no overlap between your two cases. Do you think anything galz said was about me was alignment indicative? If so what?

Quote
The ss wagon EOD push was Galz, Simon, EFHW. I've said before I'm leaning town on EFHW because I'm leaning scum on Raptor. If I'm right on this and on Simon (more assumptions! Yay!), that makes this a 3 town wagon
Only galz is confirmed town. The other two are my second biggest scum read and a null read.

1. Correct. So I'm voting Raptor to see. If he's scum, my trust for EFHW goes way up. I don't believe in a bus here because Raptor goes VLA. You don't park your vote on a teammate in this situation on D1. In general, bussing is a thing. For you, I don't know. I've never seen you as scum, I only have your word for it.

2. It seems easier to me to view you as scummy from this. Though I get that it could paint you as townie.

3. Don't see why. Null at best, though null most likely.

4. I think Galz and I just like to look at different things. It seems that he likes to use more of a tone based argument (not the right word for it, I don't how better to explain), I'm trying to use the most concrete evidence I can get my hands on. My initial suspicion of you was a result of POE, his was not. But the point is he's a smart guy. If he says something, he could be right. Unless it's about me. Again, this is another of the points I'm not placing too much weight on.

5. That Simon read is your choice. I think it's bad. More on that later. As for EFHW, you yourself have acknowledged scum Raptor makes town EFHW. This theory could be totally wrong IF Raptor is town. I don't know this until he flips. All I do know is I have given him numerous chances to try and prove himself this day, but he hasn't given anything.

So. I certainly think that you should think that I am very likely town in the event that raptor flips  scum.

But, if you disagree, that's fine, as long as you are consistent. Right now I'm worried that either raptor will flip scum and you'll say that'll make me scum because he didn't vote for me once, or he'll flip town and that'll make me scum because I was trying to get him lynched. Both of these things seem rationalizable.

So how about you tell me right now which outcome makes me look better in your book? That way you don't get to choose afterwards.

Admittedly, this actually was one of things I was thinking about, in that there is a case against you no matter the flip (and assuming TA is the NK). I'm not sure I can give you an answer to your satisfaction, but I do think there's a lot that can happen before a D3 vote. 12 vs 13 players bothers me a lot because we likely have only 1 safe mislynch left. If Raptor flips town, I'm probably dead tomorrow because people are going to trust me a lot less than do already. If they do at all, in some cases. There's no more 'narrowing down' opportunities, it's just straight up 'vote for the scummiest people'.

I'm going to reserve the right to change my mind D3 because this is mafia, opinions are like leaves in the wind. Meantime, I could vote you either way based on the flip, as you yourself were speculating. What I will say, however, is that with 3 scum left out of 7 unknowns if he flips town, my vote would probably go to Robz (or alternatively EFHW, based on my gut that this indeed a 1 v 1).

2 possibilities:
1. Simon is scum. 2 more scum. Where? Raptor would ideally be out of the picture by then. So either they're both bussing, or 1 chose not to. It's still unlikely to me Simon/EFHW is a team (choice between 5-5 of a town and scum, she picks the scum). So both scum were bussing early then? If that's not the case, there's only 1 remaining suspect: Robz.

2. Simon is town. 3 scum in that group of 6 voting him is a possibility, I need to keep that in mind. But if it's not, same reasoning as before applies. 6 of the 10 town were either VLA or voting Galz if Robz is town. Odd.

If he is scum, we still get the mislynch for narrowing down. I could reconsider my options then if there's another direction I want to go in.

either the latter parts of this post are to say you find Simon skummy - yet are not voting for him, or is isolating specifically Raptor. I just want to be clear - do you think Simon is skum or XXR? (or both)?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 21, 2018, 03:18:11 am
Wasnít asked or me so i am not answering the question per se - but i would like to point out this is a faulty silogism. One could absolutely assume that ďif player A flips skum, they also think it makes Player B look skummy, while simotainiously assuming if Player A flips town it does not mean anything in regards to Player B.Ē

No. You can absolutely not correctly do this, under no circumstances, never ever ever ever. if A coming true is evidence for B, then A coming false must be evidence against B. This is provable from first principles. See here.. (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jiBFC7DcCrZjGmZnJ/conservation-of-expected-evidence)
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 21, 2018, 03:19:36 am
If raptor flipping town makes me more likely scum, than raptor flipping scum has to make me more likely town. This is an absolute incontrovertible law. P(A | B) > P(A) => P(A | not B) < P(A). I get that you don't want to settle on any thing, but I'd just like to point it out. if you think both fits your theory, then your theory is not consistent with the laws of probability.

That said, ok. Then let's just try to lynch raptor and tomorrow you can rationalize reason what to do next.

Anyone not wanting to lynch raptor: what's your alternative?

Wasnít asked or me so i am not answering the question per se - but i would like to point out this is a faulty silogism. One could absolutely assume that ďif player A flips skum, they also think it makes Player B look skummy, while simotainiously assuming if Player A flips town it does not mean anything in regards to Player B.Ē

Perfect example would be the D1 wagon - if Simon would of been skum i would highly suspected Iguana as skum. However, if Simon were to lynch and be the Town, it would hold very little merit on Iguanaís alignment.

Probability wise, it's correct. I'm just not sure if this is the right scenario to use probability like that. If it is, I don't have a good answer for it.



Question for Swan: Why do you think Raptor is town?

Missed this.
Short and simple - I got two reasons

Gut + the reception of your "Not VLA" thing.

If raptor flipping town makes me more likely scum, than raptor flipping scum has to make me more likely town. This is an absolute incontrovertible law. P(A | B) > P(A) => P(A | not B) < P(A). I get that you don't want to settle on any thing, but I'd just like to point it out. if you think both fits your theory, then your theory is not consistent with the laws of probability.

That said, ok. Then let's just try to lynch raptor and tomorrow you can rationalize reason what to do next.

Anyone not wanting to lynch raptor: what's your alternative?
\

you?

And now these posts make me wonder you're scum and Raptor's town, if only by gut. I'm not switching my vote, I'm just obligated to say this so that at the end of the game I can say "Well, I wasn't tooootally off".

Look: I'm well aware Raptor could be town. There's some similarities to his best town performance, and many similarities to his lurky town performances. There's some notable differences from his scum performance. But there also comes a time when I just get to "If all you've given in 10 days excluding VLA is a case against me, a town, based on 2 sentences in 526 posts (which even if it was correct in an alternate reality, doesn't make it a good case), why do I want to play with you and keep you around when I have begged numerous times for you to get involved and do a readthrough?" Yes, I'm sure he's busy. But you can set aside 15 minutes a day to think about things. But if he's scum, he KNOWS it's underwhelming, he KNOWS it's not enough, and it is giving me pause now that I consider it. Maybe I'm approaching this game with too much of the "I'm OK with losing as long as it's other peoples' fault" mentality. And then again, I can't townread somebody unless they put in an effort to get me to townread them.


I'm going to reserve the right to change my mind D3 because this is mafia, opinions are like leaves in the wind. Meantime, I could vote you either way based on the flip, as you yourself were speculating. What I will say, however, is that with 3 scum left out of 7 unknowns if he flips town, my vote would probably go to Robz (or alternatively EFHW, based on my gut that this indeed a 1 v 1).

2 possibilities:
1. Simon is scum. 2 more scum. Where? Raptor would ideally be out of the picture by then. So either they're both bussing, or 1 chose not to. It's still unlikely to me Simon/EFHW is a team (choice between 5-5 of a town and scum, she picks the scum). So both scum were bussing early then? If that's not the case, there's only 1 remaining suspect: Robz.

2. Simon is town. 3 scum in that group of 6 voting him is a possibility, I need to keep that in mind. But if it's not, same reasoning as before applies. 6 of the 10 town were either VLA or voting Galz if Robz is town. Odd.

If he is scum, we still get the mislynch for narrowing down. I could reconsider my options then if there's another direction I want to go in.

either the latter parts of this post are to say you find Simon skummy - yet are not voting for him, or is isolating specifically Raptor. I just want to be clear - do you think Simon is skum or XXR? (or both)?

The last sentence, the 'he' is for Raptor. The stuff before is me laying out reasoning for voting Robz were Raptor to be the lynch today based on EOD and that scummers often spread themselves out amongst the wagons.

Here's the thing about Simon: I KNOW there was 0 scum pushing in his favor EOD1. Unfortunately, I'm the only one who knows that. Scum knew there were several PR's in play, it's a risky move to go after one of their own, even though it does feel to me most of the town PR's are pretty useless, masons excepted. Don't start a big discussion with me on that last part, we don't have time for it.

TA, you do need to weigh in here. I know you're having internet problems, but it would be a big help if you can find away around that for just 2 days.

PPE
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 21, 2018, 03:19:52 am
I think it would be a good idea if TA were to choose a claim order in case we end up there tomorrow and they are killed tonight.

Hey, this is really good idea. Why did we never do this before?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 21, 2018, 03:22:17 am
I think it would be a good idea if TA were to choose a claim order in case we end up there tomorrow and they are killed tonight.

Hey, this is really good idea. Why did we never do this before?

Is it obvious we should be claiming tomorrow? If yes (and maybe even if no), then do you think the town RBer ought to just claim now, and force scum to counter or let us have an IC tomorrow? Again, I am not at all expecting a successful RB the remainder of the game.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 21, 2018, 03:24:26 am
you?

You don't seem to ever want to give me an answer that I can understand, but Ė why?

I think it would be a good idea if TA were to choose a claim order in case we end up there tomorrow and they are killed tonight.

Hey, this is really good idea. Why did we never do this before?

Is it obvious we should be claiming tomorrow? If yes (and maybe even if no), then do you think the town RBer ought to just claim now, and force scum to counter or let us have an IC tomorrow? Again, I am not at all expecting a successful RB the remainder of the game.

It's not obvious I think, but posting a claim-list pre-emptively is a good idea anyway. We don't have to use it.

General wisdom is that one does not discuss what PRs should do unless one feels strongly that they claim right now. RB has to decide for themself.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 21, 2018, 04:52:48 am
I think I'm against the end-of-day claim order. At least, if this were a drafting-style setup, then it's clearly bad to give scum a heads-up about the order they'll be claiming in right before we go into a night phase.. that just gives them extra help by greatly reducing the amount of if-then planning they have to do.

For a setup like this one, the impact of that is a bit less clear, but I'm unconvinced that the benefits outweigh the risks, or that of they do, then the claim order itself is really critical enough to have to be decided by an IC over town consensus.

I'm not even through my first coffee of the day yet, though, so that's definitely posted for discussion rather than because I'm feeling confident that it's the right stance..
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: LaLight on August 21, 2018, 05:34:25 am
What do you feel now?

Vote Count 2.4


Skumpy (2): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (1): DatSwan
Xxraptorslayer96 (2): Skumpy, silverspawn
Simon Jester (1): Robz888
SpaceAnemone (2): Simon Jester, EFHW
Not Voting: (2) Twistedarcher, SpaceAnemone

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 21, 2018, 02:34:34 pm
I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.

Same.

Skumpy seems so clearly scum to me. Even looking back on the Space vote count records it makes sense. He seems to Be pushing a lynch pretty hard for me just be a less active player. He seems to of buddied SS off of a D1 no vote agreement. I donít know if that makes SS scum also and itís premeditated, or heís just a pawn.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 21, 2018, 03:07:22 pm
Reads list
Town:
TA -IC, I believe his claim.
Space - the number analysis seems to helpful to be a scum move, but Iíve never played with them before that i remember, does scum!space do this as well?

Null:
Swan- helpful,just hasnít sold me on town
Gkrieg- hasnít sold me as on town
Robz- hasnít said much
EFHW-possible scum based off of What I was there for D1 but has seemed pretty low key D2
Simon- could be part of the scum team

Skum:
SS - could just of been friended by skumpy, if so donít fall for it heís
Skumpy- didnít like his D1 votes.

Probbaly looks bad that the two people voting for me are the two I think are scum but i donít understand there case on me. Because I was ďseen onlineĒ?

Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 21, 2018, 03:08:55 pm
On avg. how much time do you spend on the forum pre day? Question is for everyone
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 21, 2018, 03:28:35 pm
I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.

Same.

Skumpy seems so clearly scum to me. Even looking back on the Space vote count records it makes sense. He seems to Be pushing a lynch pretty hard for me just be a less active player. He seems to of buddied SS off of a D1 no vote agreement. I donít know if that makes SS scum also and itís premeditated, or heís just a pawn.

Yeah, because I'm good enough to make silver a pawn. If your case is based around me and ss having a pact: you had the 4th post in the game and the privilege of posting right after the coalition offer. You said:

Hello

Hello

Hello

Hello

and yet you're suspicious of a pre-plan? Fo'real? As for the rest, I'm guessing you're currently phone posting, but I expect something more or an elaboration on 'the timing of your votes' when you get home. I suck D1, that's a constant for me (except when I'm scum, then I catch my teammates!)

The push for you has nothing do with 'Who's Online'. I've explained why many times. It's a shame that talking and risking putting out everything I can for it to be scumread makes me scum for you, but so be it. If I vote you, and you barely protest except by OMGUSing, why is that supposed to make me want to lynch you less?

Space - the number analysis seems to helpful to be a scum move, but Iíve never played with them before that i remember, does scum!space do this as well?
Yes.

EFHW-possible scum based off of What I was there for D1 but has seemed pretty low key D2
So Space's post that likely you or EFHW is scum does nothing for you?

Skum:
SS - could just of been friended by skumpy, if so donít fall for it heís
Priceless. If anything, I'm falling for his stuff (but I shan't be sweet-talked). I'll let him tear this particular point to shreds.


On avg. how much time do you spend on the forum pre day? Question is for everyone
Lots. Most of anyone here probably right now, sadly. But these aren't answers I'm really interested in.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 21, 2018, 03:33:55 pm
I mean, thirty seconds or four hours. It really depends on how many mafia games are ongoing and how active they are. There's no consistency.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: LaLight on August 21, 2018, 03:57:15 pm
Awaclus replaces Twistedarcher, effective immediately.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: LaLight on August 21, 2018, 03:58:05 pm
What do you feel now?

Vote Count 2.4


Skumpy (2): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96
silverspawn (1): DatSwan
Xxraptorslayer96 (2): Skumpy, silverspawn
Simon Jester (1): Robz888
SpaceAnemone (2): Simon Jester, EFHW
Not Voting: (2) Awaclus, SpaceAnemone

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm. That's in 25 hours.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Awaclus on August 21, 2018, 04:00:03 pm
Vote: Skumpy
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Awaclus on August 21, 2018, 04:00:58 pm
I'll take a closer look at this game on Wednesday, I'm heading to bed now.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 21, 2018, 04:01:33 pm
Vote: Skumpy

Want to say anything else about your masonry with Iguana?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 21, 2018, 04:07:25 pm
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm. That's in 25 hours.

No deadline extension?

Vote: Skumpy

On the other hand, Awaclus never votes correctly.

That's a lie. Vote: Skumpy

This is one the funniest "I'll show you!" moments in the history of Western civilization. If you want to prove my point, be my guest.

I take solace in knowing you'll be in the graveyard with me by the end of the week. GG everybody, this is a lost cause.

Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: LaLight on August 21, 2018, 04:08:28 pm
No deadline extension?

No.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 21, 2018, 04:10:28 pm
Of the current wagons (I'm even counting 1-vote wagons), I think I would only lynch Raptor, Skumpy, or Simon.

Not feeling Space at all (highest town read other than Awaclus) and silver has seemed townie so far.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 21, 2018, 04:14:09 pm
No deadline extension?

No.
Fooey.

I honestly don't know what to do when I watch NM12 get like 100+ posts over a few hours and like 4 here in the same timeframe, with deadline a day away. When multiple people say "Nothing really has happened, I don't have opinions", chances are there's a correlation for it. I know people are busy, I know this isn't the first priority in people's lives, but I hate being the target when I feel like I'm one of the only ones putting up a fight and trying to throw ideas around. Maybe lurking is the way to go, but I have too much pride for that. I'm not angry, just disappointed, and maybe going to go drink some water to help nullify my salt content.

Unvote

Of the current wagons (I'm even counting 1-vote wagons), I think I would only lynch Raptor, Skumpy, or Simon.

Not feeling Space at all (highest town read other than Awaclus) and silver has seemed townie so far.
There's time yet for another wagon. You don't need to tell the read, but just how confident are you in it that Space is indeed town?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 21, 2018, 04:15:58 pm
Well I think you're town, but I certainly won't try to convince Awaclus of that.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: LaLight on August 21, 2018, 04:16:04 pm
No deadline extension?

No.
Fooey.

I honestly don't know what to do when I watch NM12 get like 100+ posts over a few hours and like 4 here in the same timeframe, with deadline a day away. When multiple people say "Nothing really has happened, I don't have opinions", chances are there's a correlation for it. I know people are busy, I know this isn't the first priority in people's lives, but I hate being the target when I feel like I'm one of the only ones putting up a fight and trying to throw ideas around. Maybe lurking is the way to go, but I have too much pride for that. I'm not angry, just disappointed, and maybe going to go drink some water to help nullify my salt content.

Unvote

Of the current wagons (I'm even counting 1-vote wagons), I think I would only lynch Raptor, Skumpy, or Simon.

Not feeling Space at all (highest town read other than Awaclus) and silver has seemed townie so far.
There's time yet for another wagon. You don't need to tell the read, but just how confident are you in it that Space is indeed town?

Do not mention ongoing games. This is the first warning
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 21, 2018, 04:17:05 pm
Yeah, that's a really strict rule here. Don't ever break it, no matter how trivial it seems.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 21, 2018, 04:17:44 pm
I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.

I feel that I have to say the same. The raptor case is not too convincing and Skumpy being scum would be... please don't be. I can't find a narrative for scum defending me that much in this state, really. Lynhing me or Galz wouldn't matter to scum so his townread on me is likely genuine.

I don't like gkrieg this game. I'm not an expert on your metas by no means but he feels off.

SpaceA:s wagon was interesting though I couldn't learn much from it. I think there could be a good idea to choose between raptor or EFHW, but honestly I don't know.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 21, 2018, 04:20:41 pm
No deadline extension?

No.
Fooey.

I honestly don't know what to do when I watch NM12 get like 100+ posts over a few hours and like 4 here in the same timeframe, with deadline a day away. When multiple people say "Nothing really has happened, I don't have opinions", chances are there's a correlation for it. I know people are busy, I know this isn't the first priority in people's lives, but I hate being the target when I feel like I'm one of the only ones putting up a fight and trying to throw ideas around. Maybe lurking is the way to go, but I have too much pride for that. I'm not angry, just disappointed, and maybe going to go drink some water to help nullify my salt content.

Unvote

Of the current wagons (I'm even counting 1-vote wagons), I think I would only lynch Raptor, Skumpy, or Simon.

Not feeling Space at all (highest town read other than Awaclus) and silver has seemed townie so far.
There's time yet for another wagon. You don't need to tell the read, but just how confident are you in it that Space is indeed town?

Do not mention ongoing games. This is the first warning

Sorries. Duly noted.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 21, 2018, 04:21:29 pm
I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.

I feel that I have to say the same. The raptor case is not too convincing and Skumpy being scum would be... please don't be. I can't find a narrative for scum defending me that much in this state, really. Lynhing me or Galz wouldn't matter to scum so his townread on me is likely genuine.

I don't like gkrieg this game. I'm not an expert on your metas by no means but he feels off.

SpaceA:s wagon was interesting though I couldn't learn much from it. I think there could be a good idea to choose between raptor or EFHW, but honestly I don't know.

How do I feel off?  What would you expect me to be like?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 21, 2018, 04:37:48 pm
I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.

I feel that I have to say the same. The raptor case is not too convincing and Skumpy being scum would be... please don't be. I can't find a narrative for scum defending me that much in this state, really. Lynhing me or Galz wouldn't matter to scum so his townread on me is likely genuine.

I don't like gkrieg this game. I'm not an expert on your metas by no means but he feels off.

SpaceA:s wagon was interesting though I couldn't learn much from it. I think there could be a good idea to choose between raptor or EFHW, but honestly I don't know.

How do I feel off?  What would you expect me to be like?

Oh, I don't know really, but the sureness you have about certain things, Skumpy being scum and Space being town, is odd to me. I don't know if it's odd for you though, it's just off in general - I can't really recall any play like that, halfnewb as I am.

I could really use the tell for Space, to help rub off my scumread, I'm fully aware that it's probably nothing but I'm stuck there. 
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 21, 2018, 04:50:14 pm
How about vote: DatSwan?

This would be an informative lynch. I'm voting Space,  but it doesn't look like there is sufficient interest and their recent advice about orders was towny. None of the other people with names starting with s interest me right now as lynches.  Would vote Robz or gkrieg, but those seem less informative. A lot of people seem to want raptor. Not opposed to that. If I can I'll do a DatSwan reread tonight.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 21, 2018, 05:43:21 pm
How about vote: DatSwan?

This would be an informative lynch. I'm voting Space,  but it doesn't look like there is sufficient interest and their recent advice about orders was towny. None of the other people with names starting with s interest me right now as lynches.  Would vote Robz or gkrieg, but those seem less informative. A lot of people seem to want raptor. Not opposed to that. If I can I'll do a DatSwan reread tonight.

Why Datswan?  Wouldn't you want Simon if you want an informative lynch?

Actually why is Datswan an informative lynch at all? 

This is scummy from EFHW.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 21, 2018, 06:27:42 pm
Space - the number analysis seems to helpful to be a scum move, but Iíve never played with them before that i remember, does scum!space do this as well?

We were both in M110. LL, Swan and Skumpy were the scumteam, and they won. I posted a bunch of snapshots of the voting states and stuff over there too (see e.g. post #953 in that game), but it's obviously something I'd try to copy as scum.

I have an ever-growing vote-counting script.. once I've set it up for a given game (by telling it (player names, new voting aliases, day start post numbers etc), it generates a vote count page for me that just lists all the voting states of the game, because I find it informative. When I post a "Space count", all I'm doing is copy-pasting the latest voting state from there. A lot of other stats I want to pull out, like tables of who's voted for whom, or post counts by game day are really easy for me to do using the same framework and data-structures. The thing I've half-added at the moment is a system to tell me who's prod-able at any given time... this game has made that feel like a useful addition :-(

As for how long I spend on the forum, it depends if you count the time I'd spend mucking about with scripts looking for patterns in the madness.. I'm often working of a saved copy of the page, so I'm not even sure I'd show up as recently online for Skumpy's record-keeping purposes! I think if I couldn't commit an hour a night for at least 4 nights in a week, then I wouldn't consider I had enough time to play. My reading speed is pretty slow for blocks of prose, though, so I can imagine other people being able to play the game in their own way on less time than that.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Awaclus on August 21, 2018, 06:47:48 pm
Vote: Skumpy

Want to say anything else about your masonry with Iguana?

I guess I could post his reads from last night.

Towny:

DatSwan
gkrieg
simon

Null:
EFHW
Robz
Space
Raptor

Scummy:
silver
Skumpy
(But if not them, then EFHW)

The reasoning for the silver and Skumpy reads was that they had the "deal" which allowed them to act suspicious of each other without having to do anything to back it up, they were very rarely on the same wagon, and they also pushed EFHW, Simon and Galz all while hiding behind other people's opinions. Also if II dies and Skumpy doesn't (which is what happened, as it turns out), that's a reason for him to be scum because he had the second least number of votes after II D1 and pacts not to be voted by 2 people D2.

If II had to guess a scum team, he would have said silver/Skumpy/Robz.

Just to clarify, these are just iguana's (paraphrased) opinions that I may or may not share.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 21, 2018, 07:01:08 pm
@gkrieg:
Of the current wagons (I'm even counting 1-vote wagons), I think I would only lynch Raptor, Skumpy, or Simon.

Not feeling Space at all (highest town read other than Awaclus) and silver has seemed townie so far.
There's time yet for another wagon. You don't need to tell the read, but just how confident are you in it that Space is indeed town?
Still a question I want an answer to. I don't feel this is partner-y because there's no need for it, barely anybody's gone for either of you. So if you give me like 99% confidence in Space, I'd be comfortable enough for now giving them town status.

I feel really bad for my lack of contributions... I've sort of caught up, but am not really seeing anything that I agree or disagree with, just a lot of posts that don't really say anything.

I feel that I have to say the same. The raptor case is not too convincing and Skumpy being scum would be... please don't be. I can't find a narrative for scum defending me that much in this state, really. Lynhing me or Galz wouldn't matter to scum so his townread on me is likely genuine.

Not really true, I'd do it as scum. Like I said, scum's happy when Galz is dead D1. But in this case, I'm doing it because I had a genuine read and then it was only town trying to get you de-lynched. Again, if you're scum, well played to your partners.

DatSwan is most definitely not an informative lynch. But it's not a superwrong one either. I'm second-guessing whether I really want to be narrowing possibilities, so this is something I can support... I think?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 21, 2018, 07:14:47 pm
Vote: Skumpy

Want to say anything else about your masonry with Iguana?

I guess I could post his reads from last night.

Towny:

DatSwan
gkrieg
simon

Null:
EFHW
Robz
Space
Raptor

Scummy:
silver
Skumpy
(But if not them, then EFHW)

The reasoning for the silver and Skumpy reads was that they had the "deal" which allowed them to act suspicious of each other without having to do anything to back it up, they were very rarely on the same wagon, and they also pushed EFHW, Simon and Galz all while hiding behind other people's opinions. Also if II dies and Skumpy doesn't (which is what happened, as it turns out), that's a reason for him to be scum because he had the second least number of votes after II D1 and pacts not to be voted by 2 people D2.

If II had to guess a scum team, he would have said silver/Skumpy/Robz.

Just to clarify, these are just iguana's (paraphrased) opinions that I may or may not share.

Better.
Here's the deal with the deal: I offered it to literally EVERYBODY! silver said yes, I said, "I'll wait for Space". silver also didn't accept it at first until Swan pushed him (which I felt was somewhat scummy from Swan. It took me a few tries to understand it, but I can see the pieces connecting from a scum POV). Anyways, Iguana himself said, "maybe for a day", and didn't give more than that. You who is reading the post right now, YOU had a chance to take it, and you said "nah, I'm good". You have my permission to go vote silver if you want, there's apparently enough suspicion coming his way as well.

I was the first to vote Galz. I was the 2nd to vote TA, and the 1st to make some case against him. Those were MY opinions that were well documented. I don't partake in RVS, so if I have a vote, I'm letting you know why. Who was I hiding behind? And it's irrelevant anyways: I try to play from a town mindset as scum and vote the people I think I'd most easily see as scum. If anything, I avoid big wagons.

II died because he was super obvious town. I was not because I'm Skumpy and everybody is always suspicious of me now because of how I write; I always attract early wagons. Why people suspected II, I don't know.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 21, 2018, 07:21:54 pm
Scumteam got me squirming and I don't care for it.   >:( >:( >:(

I suggest you all go do a readthrough before you get complacent. I know there exists town who haven't yet realized just how lost this game is. But I know.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 21, 2018, 07:25:38 pm
Actually why is Datswan an informative lynch at all? 

If Swan is town, it gives us an almost certain scum between Simon and silver, because if you and I trust each other to be town, then there's nothing but green-and-silver on the Simon wagon for over 100 posts. I think it also makes it even more likely that there's one in {EFHW-Raptor}, because if there were three amongst the other players then the chance of one of them being Swan would be higher.

If Swan is Scum, I think the likelihood of Simon being scum goes up a bit, because Swan is voting silver right now, and also because scum!Simon opening the game with an RVS vote on a buddy and them proceeding to vote for almost everyone in the game kind of makes sense.

It's not the most informative thing going, but we do have to start cracking the nut of where the scums are in {Robz, Raptor, Swan, Skumpy, Simon (and maybe gkrieg)} at some point if we're going to win.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 21, 2018, 07:49:37 pm
@Space, you seem to be assuming ideal scum play at every point. I've noticed many people doing that in recent games, but it's extremely unlikely.

The fact we haven't lynched scum yet means they're at least doing something right :-P

More seriously, I picked out three suggested constraints from a day and a half's voting history, and invited people to comment. Do you think any of my suggested deductions is likely to be true? If so, which, and with what level of confidence?

Are you just refusing to comment with any level of detail because of some kind of Awaclusian principle? Or do you think my entire approach is unworkably flawed? If the latter, what do you suggest instead?
You have my response to point #1. Points #2 and #3 don't help much. More later

Did the "more later" part just boil down to you deciding to vote Swan, or was there going to be something else? You said points #2 and #3 don't help much, which is a comment on the utility of making the deductions, but not an opinion on the deductions themselves, which was what I was after.

As a reminder:
#2 - I was suggesting from looking at how the early Simon wagon formed that at least one of {Simon, silver, Swan} is scum.
#3 - I was suggesting from the later Galz wagon that at least one of {Robz, Skumpy, Simon} is scum.

I'm asking you how much you agree with the deduction in each case. Like "70% sure" or "seems plausible" or something. I feel like this kind of question should be easy for town, because this is precisely the information we have available to us in our scum-hunting, but tricky for scum, because they don't want to tie themselves into agreeing that one of their own might be scum when we get more info for PoE.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 21, 2018, 09:14:06 pm
I did actually give my opinion right off, which is that you are making assumptions that can't be counted on. In all three cases, you assume there must be scum on the wagon and eliminate the known town. You do that first with me, then with larger wagons of 5 and 6. Like I said before, it's not impossible that those were all town, though it of course gets less and less likely as the wagon gets bigger. But then the pool gets bigger too, and saying there is one scum in a group of 4 isn't much different from picking randomly. That is why I said it wasn't helpful.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 21, 2018, 09:18:43 pm
Actually why is Datswan an informative lynch at all? 

If Swan is town, it gives us an almost certain scum between Simon and silver, because if you and I trust each other to be town, then there's nothing but green-and-silver on the Simon wagon for over 100 posts. I think it also makes it even more likely that there's one in {EFHW-Raptor}, because if there were three amongst the other players then the chance of one of them being Swan would be higher.

If Swan is Scum, I think the likelihood of Simon being scum goes up a bit, because Swan is voting silver right now, and also because scum!Simon opening the game with an RVS vote on a buddy and them proceeding to vote for almost everyone in the game kind of makes sense.

It's not the most informative thing going, but we do have to start cracking the nut of where the scums are in {Robz, Raptor, Swan, Skumpy, Simon (and maybe gkrieg)} at some point if we're going to win.

Space - i rode Simon literally to the death up until the last minute day 1. The alt wagon flipped town. If i am skum Simon is 100% town.

I agree with GK. Color me suspicious on both you and efhw at this point.
I need to actually finish isolating stuff to make a choice on if it is substantiated - but this push is weak/phony
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 21, 2018, 09:33:27 pm
Wasnít asked or me so i am not answering the question per se - but i would like to point out this is a faulty silogism. One could absolutely assume that ďif player A flips skum, they also think it makes Player B look skummy, while simotainiously assuming if Player A flips town it does not mean anything in regards to Player B.Ē

No. You can absolutely not correctly do this, under no circumstances, never ever ever ever. if A coming true is evidence for B, then A coming false must be evidence against B. This is provable from first principles. See here.. (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jiBFC7DcCrZjGmZnJ/conservation-of-expected-evidence)

This is a game with interactions and variables. Every interaction is at a minimum a two way street. It is not a math problem. I am not arguing with youíre defn of the theory, just the application of it here.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 21, 2018, 09:38:49 pm
I did a reread of DatSwan. Post numbers may be off by one.

It's not as informative as I had hoped. It does concern me that he stated at 383 that he was willing to switch to get a lynch, and then did not do so, instead insisting other people switch to simon. Not a strong scum narrative for that, though. Day 2 he now says he thinks Simon is town and silver is not. He uses silver's EOD as justification, but silver's EOD was virtually identical to his, with the exception that silver was actually willing to switch. It was the case on silver that gave me the scumread. If we lynch him, we'll have a better sense of silver, simon and raptor.

Another similarity between DatSwan and silver is interest in entering into the pact with Skumpy. He challenges silver holding back at first, prodding him into agreeing for Days 1 and 2. I think supporting the pact is scummy, since, as I suggested, it did constrict town's flexibility in finding a lynch. That is to scum's benefit.

51 posts
48 offers Skumpy pact until start of Day 3. (Whatever happened to this?)
51 questions silver not doing agreement with Skumpy yet giving him day 1 pass. Says silver is being scummy because he would have an out allowing him to vote Skumpy last minute.
123 tinfoil hat theory, never shared with us.
194 checks in, says raptor isn't scum
228 Skum to chum list: Scum EFHW Simon Twisted II SS
Null Space GK Robz Skumpy Raptor Galz Chum
232 wants explanation why raptor is scummy.
235 iguana challenges DatSwan for not voing EFHW despite top scumread and opportunity to make it L-1. DatSwan thinks iguana and TA are bussing me for credit.
238 challenged again by iguana he says his reads are just guess work.
240 raptor is town because he'll be easier to lynch later.
241 Response to Iguana "The mere fact that you would suggest such a thing is ridiculous is somewhat incriminating. You are a very experienced player. I, as should everyone, leave pretty much everything on the table for you. Take it as a compliment."
242 Challenges iguana's EFHW vote, wants to know why voting there instead of silver.
279 3 candidates for lynch. Doesn't say who they are, votes Simon.
383 Willing to switch but likes simon wagon best
407 Thinks I am town, simon is not.
408 likes Galzria's comments about silver wagon, in which he suggests that those objecting to that wagon are scum.
412 10 minutes later. Not interested in switching.
426 "Get you vote back on Simon
At this point I would be half ok with speeding wagoning freekin II"
444 Simon more informative, Galz the better player
448 Demands someone hammer simon
DAY 2
479 Thinks masons have shots, wonders about N0. Mason should not claim because more valuable tomorrow than today. Vote count analysis. Assume one scum on each wagon. Notes that Robz, Skumpy, TA, II could have hammered simon. Focuses on Skumpy bc robz and ta were away. Reasonable since we now know II and TA are town. Finds me scummy, unless silver is scum. Says Simon is town - (why not vote Galz then?). Decides to vote silver for his EOD posts and because Galz's top scumread.
500 raptor didn't have internet. Doesn't want to lynch simon, thinking now it could have been two town wagons. "so silver it is for now"
590 Believes TA
593 Skumpy should have hammered. Responding to Space, feels their questions are uncharacteristic since the answers should be obvious.
595 Finds me scummy
596 raptor not scum. On board for EFHW lynch.
635 finds silver's syllogism faulty
637 raptor town bc of his gut read and his response to Skumpy saying he saw him online.
638 TA choose claim order for tomorrow
639 challenges Robz, posts that don't really say anything.
643 asks Robz for reads list
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 21, 2018, 09:39:39 pm
I think I'm against the end-of-day claim order. At least, if this were a drafting-style setup, then it's clearly bad to give scum a heads-up about the order they'll be claiming in right before we go into a night phase.. that just gives them extra help by greatly reducing the amount of if-then planning they have to do.

For a setup like this one, the impact of that is a bit less clear, but I'm unconvinced that the benefits outweigh the risks, or that of they do, then the claim order itself is really critical enough to have to be decided by an IC over town consensus.

I'm not even through my first coffee of the day yet, though, so that's definitely posted for discussion rather than because I'm feeling confident that it's the right stance..

What about limiting the information? Like top two TRs and top 2 SRs or something?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 21, 2018, 09:42:11 pm
I did a reread of DatSwan. Post numbers may be off by one.

It's not as informative as I had hoped. It does concern me that he stated at 383 that he was willing to switch to get a lynch, and then did not do so, instead insisting other people switch to simon. Not a strong scum narrative for that, though. Day 2 he now says he thinks Simon is town and silver is not. He uses silver's EOD as justification, but silver's EOD was virtually identical to his, with the exception that silver was actually willing to switch. It was the case on silver that gave me the scumread. If we lynch him, we'll have a better sense of silver, simon and raptor.

Another similarity between DatSwan and silver is interest in entering into the pact with Skumpy. He challenges silver holding back at first, prodding him into agreeing for Days 1 and 2. I think supporting the pact is scummy, since, as I suggested, it did constrict town's flexibility in finding a lynch. That is to scum's benefit.

51 posts
48 offers Skumpy pact until start of Day 3. (Whatever happened to this?)
51 questions silver not doing agreement with Skumpy yet giving him day 1 pass. Says silver is being scummy because he would have an out allowing him to vote Skumpy last minute.
123 tinfoil hat theory, never shared with us.
194 checks in, says raptor isn't scum
228 Skum to chum list: Scum EFHW Simon Twisted II SS
Null Space GK Robz Skumpy Raptor Galz Chum
232 wants explanation why raptor is scummy.
235 iguana challenges DatSwan for not voing EFHW despite top scumread and opportunity to make it L-1. DatSwan thinks iguana and TA are bussing me for credit.
238 challenged again by iguana he says his reads are just guess work.
240 raptor is town because he'll be easier to lynch later.
241 Response to Iguana "The mere fact that you would suggest such a thing is ridiculous is somewhat incriminating. You are a very experienced player. I, as should everyone, leave pretty much everything on the table for you. Take it as a compliment."
242 Challenges iguana's EFHW vote, wants to know why voting there instead of silver.
279 3 candidates for lynch. Doesn't say who they are, votes Simon.
383 Willing to switch but likes simon wagon best
407 Thinks I am town, simon is not.
408 likes Galzria's comments about silver wagon, in which he suggests that those objecting to that wagon are scum.
412 10 minutes later. Not interested in switching.
426 "Get you vote back on Simon
At this point I would be half ok with speeding wagoning freekin II"
444 Simon more informative, Galz the better player
448 Demands someone hammer simon
DAY 2
479 Thinks masons have shots, wonders about N0. Mason should not claim because more valuable tomorrow than today. Vote count analysis. Assume one scum on each wagon. Notes that Robz, Skumpy, TA, II could have hammered simon. Focuses on Skumpy bc robz and ta were away. Reasonable since we now know II and TA are town. Finds me scummy, unless silver is scum. Says Simon is town - (why not vote Galz then?). Decides to vote silver for his EOD posts and because Galz's top scumread.
500 raptor didn't have internet. Doesn't want to lynch simon, thinking now it could have been two town wagons. "so silver it is for now"
590 Believes TA
593 Skumpy should have hammered. Responding to Space, feels their questions are uncharacteristic since the answers should be obvious.
595 Finds me scummy
596 raptor not scum. On board for EFHW lynch.
635 finds silver's syllogism faulty
637 raptor town bc of his gut read and his response to Skumpy saying he saw him online.
638 TA choose claim order for tomorrow
639 challenges Robz, posts that don't really say anything.
643 asks Robz for reads list

Never said i thought Simon was town. Just said it is more likely it could of been a tvt wagon than one of the switching people are skum. So imo SS>Simon.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 21, 2018, 09:51:04 pm
This is what made me think you thought simon was town ...

Simon was the other major wagon, so I tend to take a lot of that person's actions out of the equasion because good town will do anything to stay alive.

... I see that just before you did say this ...

Quote
I would like to focus that speculation on Simon, SilverSpawn and EFHW. with one speculation. If Skum knew that some of the absent players were in fact skum, they would of had to move accordingly (only important if it was a town vs town wagon). But, still to be considered. At the end of it, Simon is probably skum. But the most reliable choice is SS.

... but the impression I take away is that you really believe Simon to be town.


Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 21, 2018, 11:53:12 pm
This is what made me think you thought simon was town ...

Simon was the other major wagon, so I tend to take a lot of that person's actions out of the equasion because good town will do anything to stay alive.

... I see that just before you did say this ...

Quote
I would like to focus that speculation on Simon, SilverSpawn and EFHW. with one speculation. If Skum knew that some of the absent players were in fact skum, they would of had to move accordingly (only important if it was a town vs town wagon). But, still to be considered. At the end of it, Simon is probably skum. But the most reliable choice is SS.

... but the impression I take away is that you really believe Simon to be town.

Coolio - allow me to clear that up. I still think Simon is skummy. For no new reasons from D1 really. But as several people (myself included) have pointed out - the chance that it was tvt d1 makes him a less ideal lynch for previously stated reasons.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 22, 2018, 12:23:57 am
Scumteam got me squirming and I don't care for it.   >:( >:( >:(

I suggest you all go do a readthrough before you get complacent. I know there exists town who haven't yet realized just how lost this game is. But I know.

You are becoming scummier the more you are writing. There is no reason for such a defaistic attitude, we can afford another mislynch and yours would certainly not be the worst here.

However I rather would go towards Swan today. If he being scum makes me 100% town I would like to bet that the reversed is true, me being town makes them 100% scum. I agree that his lynch is informative if he would flip town.

vote: datswan
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 22, 2018, 01:16:25 am
Scumteam got me squirming and I don't care for it.   >:( >:( >:(

I suggest you all go do a readthrough before you get complacent. I know there exists town who haven't yet realized just how lost this game is. But I know.

You are becoming scummier the more you are writing. There is no reason for such a defaistic attitude, we can afford another mislynch and yours would certainly not be the worst here.

However I rather would go towards Swan today. If he being scum makes me 100% town I would like to bet that the reversed is true, me being town makes them 100% scum. I agree that his lynch is informative if he would flip town.

vote: datswan

So on one hand I said ďif i am skum you are TownĒ so your vote is ...i guess to be expected. But this post is all over the place.
1) You think skumpy is skummy
2) you think we canít affford a mislynch
3) but you wanna lynch me, not being able to afford a mislynch.


So it isnít for info - you have to find me skummy right?
Why am i skummy? Please make your case.


Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 22, 2018, 01:46:56 am
Scumteam got me squirming and I don't care for it.   >:( >:( >:(

I suggest you all go do a readthrough before you get complacent. I know there exists town who haven't yet realized just how lost this game is. But I know.

You are becoming scummier the more you are writing. There is no reason for such a defaistic attitude, we can afford another mislynch and yours would certainly not be the worst here.

However I rather would go towards Swan today. If he being scum makes me 100% town I would like to bet that the reversed is true, me being town makes them 100% scum. I agree that his lynch is informative if he would flip town.

vote: datswan

So on one hand I said ďif i am skum you are TownĒ so your vote is ...i guess to be expected. But this post is all over the place.
1) You think skumpy is skummy
2) you think we canít affford a mislynch
3) but you wanna lynch me, not being able to afford a mislynch.


So it isnít for info - you have to find me skummy right?
Why am i skummy? Please make your case.

#2 is exactly the opposite from what I'm saying. Skumpy is basically resigning in his post and even if we are in an unfortunate position we are in no way in a guaranteed loss with a mislynch here. I'm not ready to vote Skumpy yet, he has been one of my strongest townread so far but it's getting weirder and weirder. I'm not against his lynch, but I can't vote there right now. Too much WIFOM and it's making me crazy.

When it comes to you my case is not too strong. I've been waiting for something jumping out for me and your comment made it. Together with EFHW and SpaceA:s reasoning I like your lynch better than anyone elses - I do think it's likely silver is scum if you flips town.
 
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 02:15:32 am
Time for me to ponder the mysteries of the universe and the meaning of life and M117, in some TBD order.

BTW: Gone for parts of the day before deadline. If it's at 5PM forum/EST, I should be around for the last hourish. If you're killing me, give me time to get back and write my epitaph.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 22, 2018, 02:19:23 am
Scumteam got me squirming and I don't care for it.   >:( >:( >:(

I suggest you all go do a readthrough before you get complacent. I know there exists town who haven't yet realized just how lost this game is. But I know.

You are becoming scummier the more you are writing. There is no reason for such a defaistic attitude, we can afford another mislynch and yours would certainly not be the worst here.

However I rather would go towards Swan today. If he being scum makes me 100% town I would like to bet that the reversed is true, me being town makes them 100% scum. I agree that his lynch is informative if he would flip town.

vote: datswan

So on one hand I said ďif i am skum you are TownĒ so your vote is ...i guess to be expected. But this post is all over the place.
1) You think skumpy is skummy
2) you think we canít affford a mislynch
3) but you wanna lynch me, not being able to afford a mislynch.


So it isnít for info - you have to find me skummy right?
Why am i skummy? Please make your case.

#2 is exactly the opposite from what I'm saying. Skumpy is basically resigning in his post and even if we are in an unfortunate position we are in no way in a guaranteed loss with a mislynch here. I'm not ready to vote Skumpy yet, he has been one of my strongest townread so far but it's getting weirder and weirder. I'm not against his lynch, but I can't vote there right now. Too much WIFOM and it's making me crazy.

When it comes to you my case is not too strong. I've been waiting for something jumping out for me and your comment made it. Together with EFHW and SpaceA:s reasoning I like your lynch better than anyone elses - I do think it's likely silver is scum if you flips town.
 

I admit my mistake in that I mis-read your "can afford" as "can't afford". Go ahead and disregard that point.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 22, 2018, 03:00:55 am
hello.

iguana is the only one making sense so far.
Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.

Why? The only reason Town!SS would be worried about the agreement is if Skumpy is Skum.

PPE1
But you just said you are giving him a pass - so, if Skumpy is Skum then they obv will remove you from radar. Soooo, as Town!SS you giving Skumpster a pass is actually the same as agreeing to his gambit. As Skum, it gives you an out to say that you never agreed to it so people can pile him and then you can jump on.

you know what, you're right! I didn't think this far.

Ok, skumpy, how about we don't vote for each other until day 3?


I am Vanilla Townie

I believe that both SS and Skumpy are Skum.

I believe that the plan was to have Skumpy put his plan in place for the coalition assuming at least one town would bite, then to have a skum jump on. This gives them the ultimate WIFOM for kill actions. This plan would also suggest that Skum has a low utility of PRs.

I think that this quoted above by SS was not simply based on logic. They have proven with their recent posts that they can take a logical concept and apply it in an illogical way. I think that this agreement to my arbitrary day count plus the overall coalition is just an out for 2 skum players to use down the road. Also, we are D2 now and when skumpy gets to 3 votes I all of a sudden get a random push put on me? This doesn't seem right.

Skumpy has obv laid the groundwork here to vote for me, so EFHW had to start it out.

I still think SS is skum. I want to lynch SS. We should lynch SS. But as I cannot seem to rally votes, I like Skumpy. EFHW I think is Town. XXR I think is Town. IDK about Space or GK or Robz. Obv Awaclus is Town at this point.

@Awaclus - if you do not want TA's read list to be used as a claim list you should update before day end.

Vote: Skumpy
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 03:02:21 am
Checked back during the readthrough, see I'm at L1.

To repeat:

Gone for parts of the day before deadline. If it's at 5PM forum/EST, I should be around for the last hourish. If you're killing me, give me time to get back and write my epitaph.

No hammers, thanks
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 03:07:00 am
Actually, L2. Never mind, you good.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 22, 2018, 03:07:32 am
Checked back during the readthrough, see I'm at L1.

To repeat:

Gone for parts of the day before deadline. If it's at 5PM forum/EST, I should be around for the last hourish. If you're killing me, give me time to get back and write my epitaph.

No hammers, thanks

I absolutely could be wrong.. but I believe your vote is [GK, Raptor, Awaclus, Swan]. It takes 6 to lynch so I think you are L2?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 22, 2018, 03:08:01 am
Actually, L2. Never mind, you good.
PPE or whatever
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 03:38:53 am
Simon, you seem to think that weird -> probably scum. Totally wrong! Weird -> probably town. That might not be 100% true for everyone, but it's a pretty good general rule.

Skumpy is like one of the most obv!town players that has ever obv!towned without any PR stuff.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 03:41:25 am
by which I mean they're like subjectively half as likely to be scum than they'd be by default. But hey that is pretty strong.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 03:42:35 am
hello.

iguana is the only one making sense so far.
Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.

Why? The only reason Town!SS would be worried about the agreement is if Skumpy is Skum.

PPE1
But you just said you are giving him a pass - so, if Skumpy is Skum then they obv will remove you from radar. Soooo, as Town!SS you giving Skumpster a pass is actually the same as agreeing to his gambit. As Skum, it gives you an out to say that you never agreed to it so people can pile him and then you can jump on.

you know what, you're right! I didn't think this far.

Ok, skumpy, how about we don't vote for each other until day 3?


I am Vanilla Townie

I believe that both SS and Skumpy are Skum.

I believe that the plan was to have Skumpy put his plan in place for the coalition assuming at least one town would bite, then to have a skum jump on. This gives them the ultimate WIFOM for kill actions. This plan would also suggest that Skum has a low utility of PRs.

I think that this quoted above by SS was not simply based on logic. They have proven with their recent posts that they can take a logical concept and apply it in an illogical way. I think that this agreement to my arbitrary day count plus the overall coalition is just an out for 2 skum players to use down the road. Also, we are D2 now and when skumpy gets to 3 votes I all of a sudden get a random push put on me? This doesn't seem right.

Skumpy has obv laid the groundwork here to vote for me, so EFHW had to start it out.

I still think SS is skum. I want to lynch SS. We should lynch SS. But as I cannot seem to rally votes, I like Skumpy. EFHW I think is Town. XXR I think is Town. IDK about Space or GK or Robz. Obv Awaclus is Town at this point.

@Awaclus - if you do not want TA's read list to be used as a claim list you should update before day end.

Vote: Skumpy

Uhh. And Skumpy wanting to break the contract and me giving a harsh response to that idea was also planned, yes?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 03:45:43 am
I'm neither super opposed nor super excited about a Swan lynch. Probably leaning on somewhat liking it. EFHW's summary didn't make them look great I'd say.

But raptor is better.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Awaclus on August 22, 2018, 03:48:46 am
Uhh. And Skumpy wanting to break the contract and me giving a harsh response to that idea was also planned, yes?

Could have been planned, could have been Skumpy doing something non-planned on his own and you telling him not to do it.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 04:57:09 am
Awaclus hates TL:DR, you skip to bottom.

OK a reread later, wherein I tunnel 1 idea and get biased in the process.

Preliminaries:
Simon Jester: At the time, #563 matched exactly how I was feeling. I also wanted to flail and see what I could grab hold if, even though I knew nobody would follow. Back to basics thing also made sense. Still a general town tone thing from him overall. Suspicious of me buddying him, feels towny. It's not super easy to fake that stuff, especially from a relative newbie. And above all else, it's an insane risk by scum to not send anybody at all to his defense D1. Especially when you have a chance to get rid of Galz. (To respond to his last post: if the mislynch isn't me, I'm lynched tomorrow. So yeah, lynch me or lynch scum if you want to win).

Space Anemone: My favorite part about playing with Space is that they're probably like the only person who is capable of letting the evidence lead the theory. That's why this game is so hard to win, and why I have little faith in this one since my entire wagon is made of irrational tunnelers.

If the team is gkrieg/Space: First off, this game is most definitely hopeless, and kudos to you guys. In addition, if this is the team, it's tough for me to believe scumGkrieg waddles in with a "murp murp, Space is town, murp murp", waddles out. It's so unnecessary to defend a teammate when all suspicion is directed elsewhere. I have to trust this isn't the team because I don't know if I have other options. Therefore, if gkrieg is not scum, then I'm putting all my eggs in his towntell basket so that I can mega-hold him accountable when it's all over for tunneling me and getting the Space read wrong (sorry). So I'm letting Space be town. Simon, as a town speaking to hopefully another town about someone I believe is town , townI urges maybeTownU to reconsider the scum read on a probable town.

gkrieg13: I'm an OMGDUSER, not an OMGUSER. I've tried to play psychologist before, 'What do I think people would read me as were they either alignment?' This has never worked at all. So the obvious thing to do is try again: I'm surprised that none of EFHW, ss, and Space have really gone after me this game. Space and ss have tried before and given me passes. EFHW has never had to. That's a thing. gkrieg has also never gone after me before. I have to say I imagine this behavior coming more from him being town. I have never had to deal with somebody tunnel me the whole entire game, Awaclus aside. As everybody else has noted, it's such an odd thing to do, that it's gotta be town. Unless you are scum who genuinely thinks I'm playing that awfully. That's a blow to my ego. Also, nobody's voted his way this game, including Simon who's voted literally everybody else, and I'd think maybe some scum would want to bus that. So against my better judgment, gkrieg, have a town button!

So if I'm right (if!): then the entire scum team lies somwhere within {Raptor, EFHW, silver, Robz, Swan}. I went to bed last night with something screaming in my ear "It's Silver/Swan/EFHW!!!" I'm sure that'll end up being nothing...

(I also had a dream I was getting bullied at a community college sort of thing. It was a weird dream. One of the 3 bullies was redheaded; any redheads here?)


So that's the town, scum to come next post.

Last thing: Awaclus, I promise you I will download your band's album once you finally correctly read me. You are now 0/4. You are not getting a download anytime soon. If I was someone else, I'd put more faith in a paper fortune teller or a dartboard or a drunk monkey who probably can't even type on a keyboard than your reads. I know that's insulting. But, like, it takes effort to do this bad.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Awaclus on August 22, 2018, 05:10:29 am
Last thing: Awaclus, I promise you I will download your band's album once you finally correctly read me. You are now 0/4. You are not getting a download anytime soon. If I was someone else, I'd put more faith in a paper fortune teller or a dartboard or a drunk monkey who probably can't even type on a keyboard than your reads. I know that's insulting. But, like, it takes effort to do this bad.

If my read on you is wrong, then surely you'll be able to put together a better argument than "I won't download your band's album unless you stop voting for me".
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 05:18:33 am
there are also three albums so far, not just one.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 05:31:20 am
Vote: DatSwan

It's silver/Swan/X

Well, it would be if I had more self-confidence. I don't. I'm better at finding town and getting the scum from POE than just picking them out. Though speaking of POE, I would be very surprised if there's not a scum in that pair. I've been wrong on D2 2-phers before. I know it's pretty much too late to rely on that with 1 mislynch left. Eh.

The concern I have with Swan is that when the Wheel of Wagons start a-spinning, scum!Sajak gets to reach out a hand and stop it as soon as it lands on Bankrupt. I have fears that's happened again, and if Swan gets mislynched, I'm next even if I've worked out the team by then. But wagons aside, I've said the whole game I've felt Swan was scummy, and since I apparently can't vote ss (tinfoil, beepbeepbepbeep!) we're going Swan. Plus I'd rather Swan over ss anyhow.

On #50: (Repeat of old post) Townies, read it, and see if you follow along. I did...after like 4 rereads. Read it now from a scum POV (and assume I'm town). I'm outside the loop, because it was my offer. But still. For me, the jigsaw puzzle clicks into place from a scummy Swan's mind.

hello.

iguana is the only one making sense so far.
Okay everyone, I am giving Skump a hard D1 pass for no reason other than that he had the boldness to ask.

I concur. I won't actually do the agreement with skumpy, though.

Why? The only reason Town!SS would be worried about the agreement is if Skumpy is Skum.

PPE1
But you just said you are giving him a pass - so, if Skumpy is Skum then they obv will remove you from radar. Soooo, as Town!SS you giving Skumpster a pass is actually the same as agreeing to his gambit. As Skum, it gives you an out to say that you never agreed to it so people can pile him and then you can jump on.

Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.

2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)

*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*


Also also, now that I think Simon is town and am forced to give Space town cred, their argument on the Simon wagon is a lot more impactful than I initially gave it credit for. Which, as a reminder, was scum exists in {ss, Swan, Simon, Space}

There wasn't much of a case against ss there. I know he and everybody will call me out on it. Whatever. I read the thread like 2 hours ago. I forgot it. Maybe I'll revisit it again tomorrow. And I reserve the right to change my mind if Swan flips scum. If he doesn't, I don't because I'm dead, either today tomorrow.

Swan: If you want to get a wagon going on ss, be my guest. Find the flaw in my last 2 posts, and if you can't, you'll know ss is scum.

(Also also also response to EFHW about Swan offering the coalition; I was confused by it because it wasn't a very forceful offer, and I didn't realize it was one. Sorry Swan)

As a reminder: aroundish for most of the day, goneish for an hourish before deadline, should be there for all of last hour. Not claiming yet. Don't know why Swan did.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 05:36:48 am
Fun (unrelated) fact:

I mean he isn't a lynch candidate anymore. where's your evidence that he is town?

not to be rude... but I asked first. I'll even give you my reasons - but I expect yours in return.
XXR is town to me Day 1 because he will either slip up or get lyched for being less than active as the game continues. To lynch him D1 here seems dumb on general principal unless there is a hard skum read on them. So I am looking for a hard skum read from someone. Without that, they are essentially removed from my D1 pool.
*I am also aware of the Hippocratic nature of this post as they have probably contributed more than I in this game. It is more based on generalization*

Also, since we are on the topic II - what is your reads list prior to the end of D1?

My reaction at the time was this was a fake doctor breadcrumb, and not a typo. I alluded to my wonders later.


And as for DatSwan...

How he has flown completely under the radar so far, I have absolutely no clue. I suspect due in part to Galz's read. But there's a lot I don't trust, such as being the last one to vote (which I think he's done before, even as town, but still something I don't trust), his arbitrary reads which II aptly described as:

No offense, but you sound to me like you are getting your reads from a random number generator and your scum narratives from a magic 8 ball.....

and his reaction to my coalition offer, which I am now going to settle on as the scummiest response. Maybe other posts interest me too, who knows? So, I'd be OK putting a vote there, but doing so makes it easier for Simon to be the lynch, so I have to stay on TA unless somebody else wants to try starting a wagon there.

Didn't say it at the time because a) I didn't want to call him out if it was genuine and b) It was 100 times more farfetched than the Simon-Skumpy axis theory. I did find it very amusing though. Obviously a moot idea now.

Though now that I mention it: for those of you who think I'm scum AND Swan's town, I would've pushed for Swan to be the NK after reading it. But there's no way a team would've bought it actually.

...carry on.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 05:38:30 am
Last thing: Awaclus, I promise you I will download your band's album once you finally correctly read me. You are now 0/4. You are not getting a download anytime soon. If I was someone else, I'd put more faith in a paper fortune teller or a dartboard or a drunk monkey who probably can't even type on a keyboard than your reads. I know that's insulting. But, like, it takes effort to do this bad.

If my read on you is wrong, then surely you'll be able to put together a better argument than "I won't download your band's album unless you stop voting for me".

I have. Plenty, if you'd bother to read my TL:DR stuff since you only have like 12 hours left in this game anyways. But you voting me is all the case I need  ;)
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: LaLight on August 22, 2018, 05:49:21 am
What do you feel now?

Vote Count 2.5


Skumpy (4): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan
Xxraptorslayer96 (1): silverspawn
Simon Jester (1): Robz888
DatSwan (3): EFHW, Simon Jester, Skumpy
Not Voting: (1) SpaceAnemone

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm. That's in 11 hours.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Awaclus on August 22, 2018, 06:10:17 am
But you voting me is all the case I need  ;)

No it isn't because your job isn't to convince yourself that you aren't scum, it's to convince me that you aren't scum.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 06:57:45 am
Skumpy is the largest wagon... .....

Quote
gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan

Ok, gkrieg, you're the one who I trust to be somewhat reasonable. Get off of there and vote somewhere where there could be scum.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 06:59:27 am
If we lynch skumpy that just strikes me as super terrible. Especially if that makes people trust their reads more. There is probably 0 scum in {skumpy, datswan, me}
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 07:01:30 am
I would generally really consider space because they have done nothing to make me believe they're town, except that gkrieg seems to think there's something there

But I also have no reason to believe gkrieg is town. It's conceivable that gkrieg/space are scum buddies. This would mean that almost everyone under scrutiny so far has been town, which seems about right.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 07:05:02 am
And then there's robz who's just lurking and also a plausible scum candidate

the bottom line is that I suspect everyone except me is voting for a town right now. (Skumpy, Simon, Datswan) maps to (town, prob town, kinda prob town)

Instead we should be focused on raptor, space, gkrieg, EFHW, Robz. Four of them have gotten almost no pressure and everyone seems to have given up on raptor.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 22, 2018, 08:10:23 am
Actually why is Datswan an informative lynch at all? 

If Swan is town, it gives us an almost certain scum between Simon and silver, because if you and I trust each other to be town, then there's nothing but green-and-silver on the Simon wagon for over 100 posts. I think it also makes it even more likely that there's one in {EFHW-Raptor}, because if there were three amongst the other players then the chance of one of them being Swan would be higher.

If Swan is Scum, I think the likelihood of Simon being scum goes up a bit, because Swan is voting silver right now, and also because scum!Simon opening the game with an RVS vote on a buddy and them proceeding to vote for almost everyone in the game kind of makes sense.

It's not the most informative thing going, but we do have to start cracking the nut of where the scums are in {Robz, Raptor, Swan, Skumpy, Simon (and maybe gkrieg)} at some point if we're going to win.

Space - i rode Simon literally to the death up until the last minute day 1. The alt wagon flipped town. If i am skum Simon is 100% town.

I agree with GK. Color me suspicious on both you and efhw at this point.
I need to actually finish isolating stuff to make a choice on if it is substantiated - but this push is weak/phony

Are you reading that as me pushing for your lynch or something? It's not a push, it's a direct response to gkrieg complaining that EFHW's proposal is a very uninformative lynch. And I more or less agree: lynching you is not that informative, so I summarised all the vague information we might hope to get, and it's weak. I think if anything, you're agreeing with me...
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 22, 2018, 08:23:20 am
I find Skumpy a little townier after his last slew of posts. If I'm to believe he's really town, then the strongest case might be on Robz, looking at how the Galz wagon went.

vote: Robz

He's contributed next to nothing to the game, but flipping him will contribute to some of the PoE. If he's town, I think that will all but confirm Simon as scum, without great loss to town in itself because he's just not doing anything. It also has the advantage of offering information from the wagon gkrieg was not on, which means any residual suspicion on gkrieg can be put aside for not.

If Robz is scum, yay! That will also help me trust Skumpy more, which is useful because he's one of the more active people, even if I don't always agree with his content.

The downside of flipping Robz is that it doesn't help much with PoE for the Raptor/EFHW question.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 22, 2018, 08:24:46 am
Timings for later: I'm here for a short while on lunch break just now. I have a commitment immediately after work, but should be back on the forum before 9pm my time/4pm forum time, and then I can stick it out till deadline.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 08:54:56 am
Wasnít asked or me so i am not answering the question per se - but i would like to point out this is a faulty silogism. One could absolutely assume that ďif player A flips skum, they also think it makes Player B look skummy, while simotainiously assuming if Player A flips town it does not mean anything in regards to Player B.Ē

No. You can absolutely not correctly do this, under no circumstances, never ever ever ever. if A coming true is evidence for B, then A coming false must be evidence against B. This is provable from first principles. See here.. (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jiBFC7DcCrZjGmZnJ/conservation-of-expected-evidence)

This is a game with interactions and variables.

Irrelevant. Every situation is a situation with stuff going on. the formula is always true.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 22, 2018, 10:14:36 am
Skumpy is the largest wagon... .....

Quote
gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan

Ok, gkrieg, you're the one who I trust to be somewhat reasonable. Get off of there and vote somewhere where there could be scum.

Oh come on. You know he is scum.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 22, 2018, 10:51:54 am
Skumpy is the largest wagon... .....

Quote
gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan

Ok, gkrieg, you're the one who I trust to be somewhat reasonable. Get off of there and vote somewhere where there could be scum.

Oh come on. You know he is scum.
Could scum!Skumpy sustain this level of posting? And without slipping up?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 22, 2018, 10:54:25 am
I find Skumpy a little townier after his last slew of posts. If I'm to believe he's really town, then the strongest case might be on Robz, looking at how the Galz wagon went.

vote: Robz

He's contributed next to nothing to the game, but flipping him will contribute to some of the PoE. If he's town, I think that will all but confirm Simon as scum, without great loss to town in itself because he's just not doing anything. It also has the advantage of offering information from the wagon gkrieg was not on, which means any residual suspicion on gkrieg can be put aside for not.

If Robz is scum, yay! That will also help me trust Skumpy more, which is useful because he's one of the more active people, even if I don't always agree with his content.

The downside of flipping Robz is that it doesn't help much with PoE for the Raptor/EFHW question.
You thought the DatSwan lynch would be uninformative. How is it possible that a Robz lynch would be more so?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
Post by: EFHW on August 22, 2018, 11:03:31 am
I will say that this post felt scummy to me and had a pivotal effect on the day. I would vote Robz.
 
Why is there not time to start a new wagon? The Simon lynch feels too easy. Also, him voting for me right here is a pretty terrible move if he's scum, because I'm not voting him currently but might, from his perspective, switch to him if irked. Which would be bad.

I actually do not think a Galz vote is crazy here. His lack of involvement here arguably is more likely to signal that he is scum.

Vote: Galz who is with me?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 22, 2018, 11:42:44 am
You thought the DatSwan lynch would be uninformative. How is it possible that a Robz lynch would be more so?

I feel like your question is implying that I think a Robz lynch would be uninformative, and I don't think that matches up with what I was saying at all.

The most informative would be a Simon flip, for clarity of what was going on with the EoD1 wagons, or you/raptor because you're somewhat more tightly-coupled in terms of 1-v-1 status from my point of view. However, I'm tempering my thirst for immediate information by also looking favourably on keeping people who're contributing to the game right now, like you, Swan, and silver.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 22, 2018, 11:44:19 am
You thought the DatSwan lynch would be uninformative. How is it possible that a Robz lynch would be more so?

I feel like your question is implying that I think a Robz lynch would be uninformative, and I don't think that matches up with what I was saying at all.

The most informative would be a Simon flip, for clarity of what was going on with the EoD1 wagons, or you/raptor because you're somewhat more tightly-coupled in terms of 1-v-1 status from my point of view. However, I'm tempering my thirst for immediate information by also looking favourably on keeping people who're contributing to the game right now, like you, Swan, and silver.

It's implying that you said a Robz lynch would be informative.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 22, 2018, 12:01:39 pm
I will be on at time and deadline and aroundish untill then.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 12:17:42 pm
Skumpy is the largest wagon... .....

Quote
gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan

Ok, gkrieg, you're the one who I trust to be somewhat reasonable. Get off of there and vote somewhere where there could be scum.

Oh come on. You know he is scum.

If we were both confirmed towns, I would give you 4:1 odds on a bet that he isn't!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 12:18:18 pm
But I take it from your answer that your presence on the wagon is serious.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 12:34:28 pm
Is he the right pronoun for skumpy?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 22, 2018, 12:35:08 pm
You thought the DatSwan lynch would be uninformative. How is it possible that a Robz lynch would be more so?

I feel like your question is implying that I think a Robz lynch would be uninformative, and I don't think that matches up with what I was saying at all.

The most informative would be a Simon flip, for clarity of what was going on with the EoD1 wagons, or you/raptor because you're somewhat more tightly-coupled in terms of 1-v-1 status from my point of view. However, I'm tempering my thirst for immediate information by also looking favourably on keeping people who're contributing to the game right now, like you, Swan, and silver.

It's implying that you said a Robz lynch would be informative.

Ah! You'd said "uninformative" and then "more so", so I read that as "more uninformative". I think it keeps more information in the game because Swan is interacting more, in addition to the stuff I said we could read into each type of flip. I certainly don't think that what I said about Robz's flip gives any less than what I thought we'd get out of Swan's.

Would you like to elaborate on what you think you'd take away from each possible flip result?

Actually, I'd be quite interested to hear silver's response to that as well, since he's another very evidence-based player I think.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 22, 2018, 12:49:19 pm
I am here now.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 22, 2018, 12:50:10 pm
@ Space: It's more that I felt you were being inconsistent, which suggested to me that your criticism of my case might not be genuine. 
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 22, 2018, 12:50:42 pm
I really don't think Skumpy is scum. I'm more inclined to join the DatSwan wagon, I don't know if that's the best option though.

I feel like Space is sort of townie for going after me here.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 22, 2018, 12:52:48 pm
I will be on at time and deadline and aroundish untill then.
Maybe you could scumhunt between now and then?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 22, 2018, 12:57:00 pm
Skumpy is the largest wagon... .....

Quote
gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan

Ok, gkrieg, you're the one who I trust to be somewhat reasonable. Get off of there and vote somewhere where there could be scum.

Oh come on. You know he is scum.
Could scum!Skumpy sustain this level of posting? And without slipping up?

Isn't that exactly what he did in his first scum game?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 22, 2018, 12:58:15 pm
If anyone is pushing for an informative lynch, I am seriously FoSing you if you aren't voting for Simon.  He is by far the most informative lynch based on the fact he was the other D1 wagon and EoD was kind of weird Yesterday.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 22, 2018, 12:58:35 pm
I would definitely join a Simon wagon.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 22, 2018, 01:00:50 pm
If anyone is pushing for an informative lynch, I am seriously FoSing you if you aren't voting for Simon.  He is by far the most informative lynch based on the fact he was the other D1 wagon and EoD was kind of weird Yesterday.

I am currently voting him, and alone in that, I believe.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 01:04:51 pm
There is probably 0 scum in {skumpy, datswan, me}

I highly doubt that.

Skumpy is the largest wagon... .....

Quote
gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan

Ok, gkrieg, you're the one who I trust to be somewhat reasonable. Get off of there and vote somewhere where there could be scum.

Oh come on. You know he is scum.

If we were both confirmed towns, I would give you 4:1 odds on a bet that he isn't!

Awful deal. Don't take it gkrieg!

Is he the right pronoun for skumpy?
Fine by me.

Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 01:12:21 pm
Robz wagon? Maybe. Judging by his sig, he's town. But...

When the Wheel of Wagons start a-spinning, scum!Sajak gets to reach out a hand and stop it as soon as it lands on Bankrupt. I have fears that's happened again.

The longer you don't settle on a target, the easier it is for scum to guide in that direction.

I don't want to gain more information surrounding Simon, I have all the information I could want. I DON'T agree that a town flip all but guarantees Simon as scum - Raptor/gkrieg/ss (let's make something up) is fine as a possibility for me. Not really sure why him flipping scum makes me townier...but I'll take it?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 01:16:30 pm
Also, since nobody's answered me:

Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.

2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)

*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*

Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Awaclus on August 22, 2018, 01:22:42 pm
I have all the information I could want.

That's probably because you're scum.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 01:24:03 pm
Actually, I'd be quite interested to hear silver's response to that as well, since he's another very evidence-based player I think.

I definitely spend very little time worrying or even thinking about what player makes for the most informative lynch. A good reason for this is that scum is almost always going to be more informative than town. Scum wants to lynch town and not lynch scum, but not pushing for any one town lynch is just far less costly than pushing for a scum lynch. So really, I think I stand by that it should not be a major factor. Consequently, I'm not too interested in thinking about which player is the most informative.

But it's probably something like Simon > ... Skumpy > ... > raptor > ... > Robz. Don't think anyone is less informative than robz.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 01:25:14 pm
Also, since nobody's answered me:

I read it and had no clue what it means ~)
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 22, 2018, 01:31:49 pm
Also, since nobody's answered me:

Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.

2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)

*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*


That post from Swan was #478. Then at #497 he said that he'd mixed up Mason and Neighbourizer. What is left that you don't understand?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 01:36:10 pm
Also, since nobody's answered me:

Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.

2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)

*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*


That post from Swan was #478. Then at #497 he said that he'd mixed up Mason and Neighbourizer. What is left that you don't understand?

The last line, assuming he meant 'answers' instead of 'questions'. How do you know the answers to the questions that don't make sense?

On the one hand, these should still be questions you ask in a QT if you're scum. But if he's town, I don't see the rhyme or reason in it.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 22, 2018, 01:39:11 pm
Actually, I'd be quite interested to hear silver's response to that as well, since he's another very evidence-based player I think.

I definitely spend very little time worrying or even thinking about what player makes for the most informative lynch. A good reason for this is that scum is almost always going to be more informative than town. Scum wants to lynch town and not lynch scum, but not pushing for any one town lynch is just far less costly than pushing for a scum lynch. So really, I think I stand by that it should not be a major factor. Consequently, I'm not too interested in thinking about which player is the most informative.

But it's probably something like Simon > ... Skumpy > ... > raptor > ... > Robz. Don't think anyone is less informative than robz.

My question to you was not "what is the most informative lynch", it was explicitly "What would you take away from each possible flip result?". Since you were the person who earlier was trying to ensure that nobody twisted one flip both ways to give you scum points either way around, I thought you would be the best example of someone who could say "If Swan flips scum then I think X is likely, and if he flips town then I think Y", for some sorts of X and Y and likelihoods and stuff. The two flips under discussion were Swan and Robz.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 22, 2018, 01:42:58 pm
Also, since nobody's answered me:

Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.

2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)

*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*


That post from Swan was #478. Then at #497 he said that he'd mixed up Mason and Neighbourizer. What is left that you don't understand?

The last line, assuming he meant 'answers' instead of 'questions'. How do you know the answers to the questions that don't make sense?

On the one hand, these should still be questions you ask in a QT if you're scum. But if he's town, I don't see the rhyme or reason in it.

Oh, I see! I totally missed that it was the "questions" thing rather than the "masons shooting" thing you were drawing attention to.

@Swan, any comment on what you were trying to say? Were you suggesting that the rest of us should be asking questions in our QTs about it, and if so, was it something you'd asked in your own? (I'm definitely not asking for any form of QT-quoting here, because I don't want to get tangled up in any of that!!)
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 22, 2018, 02:04:04 pm
If we are choosing between Robz and Swan Iím leaning more towards Robz for the lurking aspect but I donít think he will be a very informative Lynch because he hasnít had very many interactions. Swan has been more involved and in return and more informmative lynch, but I donít think the amount if knowledge gained by his lynch is worth the risk of losing a possible town player.

I still much rather Skumpy or SS. I would also be willing to lynch Simon.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 02:05:48 pm
My question to you was not "what is the most informative lynch", it was explicitly "What would you take away from each possible flip result?". Since you were the person who earlier was trying to ensure that nobody twisted one flip both ways to give you scum points either way around, I thought you would be the best example of someone who could say "If Swan flips scum then I think X is likely, and if he flips town then I think Y", for some sorts of X and Y and likelihoods and stuff. The two flips under discussion were Swan and Robz.

Ah, you're right, sorry. I skimmed the post.

Ok, if Swan flips scum, certainly scum points for raptor because swan was defending him early.  Town points for Simon because this

Space - i rode Simon literally to the death up until the last minute day 1. The alt wagon flipped town. If i am skum Simon is 100% town.

which would be ballsy to say about your partner, but not very likely. Also simon is the second person on swan.

swan says skumpy and I are scum buddies. Whenever scum makes a list of people who are scum, they usually include exactly one of their buddies (which is always a bad idea because town always correctly suspects it, but nonetheless most scum still do it). This is a list of only two so it may be different. Still, probably some scum points to scum-π). Or to me I guess from your PoV, but I probably get town points considering his case about the EoD.

And some scum points for you because you stated that you find swan townier now where their lynch seems fairly plausible.

if he's town it's the opposite. ANd as for Robz I really have no idea.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 02:15:22 pm
I think what raptor just posted is the scummiest post of the game so far

If we are choosing between Robz and Swan Iím leaning more towards Robz for the lurking aspect but I donít think he will be a very informative Lynch because he hasnít had very many interactions. Swan has been more involved and in return and more informmative lynch, but I donít think the amount if knowledge gained by his lynch is worth the risk of losing a possible town player.

I still much rather Skumpy or SS. I would also be willing to lynch Simon.

1) doesn't defend themselves
2) I want to do X but X is bad. You can be nuanced, that's not the issue; it's ok to say "I want X even though X has is probelmatic" but it's worse to say "I want X but X will be bad".
3) overly careful tone
4) totally empty point in the end, what does it mean it's not worth losing a potential town player? Every lynch risks losing a potential town player.

I also think that, based on this post, if raptor flips scum, then Swan is scum and Robz is town.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 22, 2018, 02:34:01 pm
I think what raptor just posted is the scummiest post of the game so far

If we are choosing between Robz and Swan Iím leaning more towards Robz for the lurking aspect but I donít think he will be a very informative Lynch because he hasnít had very many interactions. Swan has been more involved and in return and more informmative lynch, but I donít think the amount if knowledge gained by his lynch is worth the risk of losing a possible town player.

I still much rather Skumpy or SS. I would also be willing to lynch Simon.

1) doesn't defend themselves
2) I want to do X but X is bad. You can be nuanced, that's not the issue; it's ok to say "I want X even though X has is probelmatic" but it's worse to say "I want X but X will be bad".
3) overly careful tone
4) totally empty point in the end, what does it mean it's not worth losing a potential town player? Every lynch risks losing a potential town player.

I also think that, based on this post, if raptor flips scum, then Swan is scum and Robz is town.

1) defend my self from what? Your vote? I donít even know why you are voting me. You havenít really made a case against me.
2) Iím weighing my options out loud and sharing my opinion. Isnít that the point.
3) awe thanks, it was like a 5 min phone post.
4) My point at the end is neither is the best lynch and I rather vote you, skumpy or Simon.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 02:43:54 pm
what has tone to do with the time you took to write it?

Quote
2) Iím weighing my options out loud and sharing my opinion. Isnít that the point. [/quite]

Yes, yes. You're supposed to do that, precisely because it allows others to draw conclusions from it. I concluded that you are scum because you did it. It was very pro-town.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 02:44:24 pm
Fixed quote:

Quote
2) Iím weighing my options out loud and sharing my opinion. Isnít that the point.

Yes, yes. You're supposed to do that, precisely because it allows others to draw conclusions from it. I concluded that you are scum because you did it. It was very pro-town.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 22, 2018, 02:56:05 pm
Care to address point one? Your case on me?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 02:59:37 pm
Raptor, since I've answered your question on time spent online, I'd appreciate it if you returned the favor.

Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.

2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)

*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*

Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 03:16:06 pm
Care to address point one? Your case on me?

I admit that I didn't have a coherent case on you before now. However, there's been lots of suspicion on you floating around. If you feel like no-one stated reasons, a way to defend yourself is to point that out. Challenge the people who scumread you. Instead you waited until the wagon died down without you doing anything and then ignored it.

Also @everyone, take a look at this:
Quote
Iím weighing my options out loud and sharing my opinion. Isnít that the point.

"Why did you find out I was scum, I was doing everything righ?!"

tell me this isn't what that sounds like!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 22, 2018, 03:21:49 pm
Raptor, since I've answered your question on time spent online, I'd appreciate it if you returned the favor.

Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.

2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)

*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*


Swan mixed up Mason and Neighbourizer, he said that. And someone has answered it. Whatís your question about it?

Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 22, 2018, 03:23:40 pm
Care to address point one? Your case on me?

I admit that I didn't have a coherent case on you before now. However, there's been lots of suspicion on you floating around. If you feel like no-one stated reasons, a way to defend yourself is to point that out. Challenge the people who scumread you. Instead you waited until the wagon died down without you doing anything and then ignored it.

Also @everyone, take a look at this:
Quote
Iím weighing my options out loud and sharing my opinion. Isnít that the point.

"Why did you find out I was scum, I was doing everything righ?!"

tell me this isn't what that sounds like!

So you have no case on me (your top scum read) and you are voting me based off of everyoneís suspicion of me? Super scummy
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 22, 2018, 03:24:28 pm
request vote count

I can do that right?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 03:26:06 pm
Raptor, since I've answered your question on time spent online, I'd appreciate it if you returned the favor.

Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.

2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)

*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*


Swan mixed up Mason and Neighbourizer, he said that. And someone has answered it. Whatís your question about it?

The last line, assuming he meant 'answers' instead of 'questions'. How do you know the answers to the questions that don't make sense?

On the one hand, these should still be questions you ask in a QT if you're scum. But if he's town, I don't see the rhyme or reason in it.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 03:28:03 pm
So you have no case on me (your top scum read) and you are voting me based off of everyoneís suspicion of me? Super scummy
???
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 03:29:44 pm
One thing I'm now pretty sure I was wrong about:

Raptor and silver aren't teamed after all. Ah well.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: LaLight on August 22, 2018, 03:41:40 pm
What do you feel now?

Vote Count 2.6


Skumpy (4): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan
Xxraptorslayer96 (1): silverspawn
Simon Jester (1): Robz888
DatSwan (3): EFHW, Simon Jester, Skumpy
Robz888 (1): SpaceAnemone

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm. That's in 1,(3) hours.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 03:43:18 pm
Update: gone from an hour before until 20-30 minutes before deadline. SHOULD be around after that, definitely for 1 or 2 quick posts if needed.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 22, 2018, 03:46:19 pm
Actually why is Datswan an informative lynch at all? 

If Swan is town, it gives us an almost certain scum between Simon and silver, because if you and I trust each other to be town, then there's nothing but green-and-silver on the Simon wagon for over 100 posts. I think it also makes it even more likely that there's one in {EFHW-Raptor}, because if there were three amongst the other players then the chance of one of them being Swan would be higher.

If Swan is Scum, I think the likelihood of Simon being scum goes up a bit, because Swan is voting silver right now, and also because scum!Simon opening the game with an RVS vote on a buddy and them proceeding to vote for almost everyone in the game kind of makes sense.

It's not the most informative thing going, but we do have to start cracking the nut of where the scums are in {Robz, Raptor, Swan, Skumpy, Simon (and maybe gkrieg)} at some point if we're going to win.

Space - i rode Simon literally to the death up until the last minute day 1. The alt wagon flipped town. If i am skum Simon is 100% town.

I agree with GK. Color me suspicious on both you and efhw at this point.
I need to actually finish isolating stuff to make a choice on if it is substantiated - but this push is weak/phony

Are you reading that as me pushing for your lynch or something? It's not a push, it's a direct response to gkrieg complaining that EFHW's proposal is a very uninformative lynch. And I more or less agree: lynching you is not that informative, so I summarised all the vague information we might hope to get, and it's weak. I think if anything, you're agreeing with me...

No sorry i mis read your post - you are correct i am agreeing with you.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 22, 2018, 03:54:01 pm
I'm home and catching up on the last few hours now. Will be here till deadline, modulo a few trips through to the kitchen to cook dinner.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 22, 2018, 04:00:56 pm
Simon, you seem to think that weird -> probably scum. Totally wrong! Weird -> probably town. That might not be 100% true for everyone, but it's a pretty good general rule.

Skumpy is like one of the most obv!town players that has ever obv!towned without any PR stuff.

I know, that's why I don't want to vote. I guess I rather mean that it starting to become anti-town and distracting and that it annoys me to the part I could see a point in a lynch there.

Still happy with my vote, especially as it's not getting much traction and I think we might have scum on the Skumpy- wagon. Therefor I'm also willing to vote raptor if that seems to be a better choice than Swan for most people.

Gkrieg want to lynch me, huh? Such a surprise.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Simon Jester on August 22, 2018, 04:01:49 pm
Will be here for some time by the way, might fall asleep before deadline though. Long day today.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 22, 2018, 04:03:09 pm
Space count as of #717
Skumpy (4): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan
Simon Jester (1): Robz888
Xxraptorslayer96 (1): silverspawn
DatSwan (3): EFHW, Simon Jester, Skumpy
Robz888 (1): SpaceAnemone
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 22, 2018, 04:04:08 pm
Oh, sorry, LL, I missed that you'd done a proper one!! Nice to see that my script agrees, though.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 22, 2018, 04:23:24 pm
My question to you was not "what is the most informative lynch", it was explicitly "What would you take away from each possible flip result?". Since you were the person who earlier was trying to ensure that nobody twisted one flip both ways to give you scum points either way around, I thought you would be the best example of someone who could say "If Swan flips scum then I think X is likely, and if he flips town then I think Y", for some sorts of X and Y and likelihoods and stuff. The two flips under discussion were Swan and Robz.

Ah, you're right, sorry. I skimmed the post.

Ok, if Swan flips scum, certainly scum points for raptor because swan was defending him early.  Town points for Simon because this

Space - i rode Simon literally to the death up until the last minute day 1. The alt wagon flipped town. If i am skum Simon is 100% town.

which would be ballsy to say about your partner, but not very likely. Also simon is the second person on swan.

swan says skumpy and I are scum buddies. Whenever scum makes a list of people who are scum, they usually include exactly one of their buddies (which is always a bad idea because town always correctly suspects it, but nonetheless most scum still do it). This is a list of only two so it may be different. Still, probably some scum points to scum-π). Or to me I guess from your PoV, but I probably get town points considering his case about the EoD.

And some scum points for you because you stated that you find swan townier now where their lynch seems fairly plausible.

if he's town it's the opposite. ANd as for Robz I really have no idea.

drawing reads specifically off of my flip is probably a bad idea at this point. except for the part about Simon, because it is the only one that is actually backed up by evidence.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 22, 2018, 04:26:55 pm
I'm here until deadline.
I am going through, and I have to agree the more skumpy talks the less confident I am - but also that could be his game plan so idk.

I am also good with SS and Simon.

Really don't think the Robz concept is getting us anywhere.

No Awaclus or Raptor.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 22, 2018, 04:35:36 pm
Skumpy is like my least favorite wagon of all time. He's said and done sooooo many things that a newbie scum would be way too scared to do. Also this wagon is just so... inevitable.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 22, 2018, 04:36:33 pm
Wait, we have like 25 more minutes, is that right? Um, ok
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 22, 2018, 04:37:19 pm
Vote: DatSwan, as the only currently viable skumpy alternative.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 22, 2018, 04:37:26 pm
@Skumpy, looking at how the Galz wagon went down, if you're town, and you're so convinved of how townie Simon is, surely that makes you think that Robz has to be scum?   Why wasn't he even a member of your "it has to be silver/Swan/X" scumteam?

@Robz, Skumpy isn't really that much of a newbie by now, is he? He's been on a winning scumteam before and everything...
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 22, 2018, 04:38:28 pm
@Skumpy, looking at how the Galz wagon went down, if you're town, and you're so convinved of how townie Simon is, surely that makes you think that Robz has to be scum?   Why wasn't he even a member of your "it has to be silver/Swan/X" scumteam?

@Robz, Skumpy isn't really that much of a newbie by now, is he? He's been on a winning scumteam before and everything...

Oh, what games has he played? He was here during my retirement?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 22, 2018, 04:39:18 pm
Okay, well maybe that changes things.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 22, 2018, 04:39:42 pm
Are you scum-reading him, Space?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 22, 2018, 04:40:08 pm
@Skumpy, looking at how the Galz wagon went down, if you're town, and you're so convinved of how townie Simon is, surely that makes you think that Robz has to be scum?   Why wasn't he even a member of your "it has to be silver/Swan/X" scumteam?

@Robz, Skumpy isn't really that much of a newbie by now, is he? He's been on a winning scumteam before and everything...

Oh, what games has he played? He was here during my retirement?

skumpy has played 3 other games on site I believe. MVP in 2 of them.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 22, 2018, 04:40:54 pm
Also robz you need to try harder. cmon man - how is this my skum game?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 22, 2018, 04:41:28 pm
Also robz you need to try harder. cmon man - how is this my skum game?

Well, I don't really think it is but we have 20 minutes to go and there are only two wagons.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 22, 2018, 04:41:48 pm
What was skumpy like in his scum games?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 04:42:18 pm
Skumpy isn't really that much of a newbie by now, is he? He's been on a winning scumteam before and everything...

Twice!

Here by the way, catching up

Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: LaLight on August 22, 2018, 04:42:36 pm
What do you feel now?

Vote Count 2.7


Skumpy (4): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan
Xxraptorslayer96 (1): silverspawn
DatSwan (4): EFHW, Simon Jester, Skumpy, Robz888
Robz888 (1): SpaceAnemone

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to Lynch. Day 2 will end Wednesday 22 August at 5 pm. That's in 19 minutes.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 04:44:04 pm
@Skumpy, looking at how the Galz wagon went down, if you're town, and you're so convinved of how townie Simon is, surely that makes you think that Robz has to be scum?   Why wasn't he even a member of your "it has to be silver/Swan/X" scumteam?

Because an alternative is Raptor could be scum with 2 on the Simon wagon.

And also because, I have seen it end up with an entire wagon of 5 town pushing another town, while all 3 scum went to the other town wagon. X could be Robz for all I know.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 04:46:39 pm
@Skumpy, looking at how the Galz wagon went down, if you're town, and you're so convinved of how townie Simon is, surely that makes you think that Robz has to be scum?   Why wasn't he even a member of your "it has to be silver/Swan/X" scumteam?

@Robz, Skumpy isn't really that much of a newbie by now, is he? He's been on a winning scumteam before and everything...

Oh, what games has he played? He was here during my retirement?

skumpy has played 3 other games on site I believe. MVP in 2 of them.

Since everybody's talking about it apparently:

I didn't want to brag, but to fill in the gaps, I'm 4-0, 2-0 as each alignment, basically with an MVP as each (1 was never official).

I'm not THAT bad at this game.

To Robz: it's too late to answer that question. I feel like I tried to copy my town meta in one, and let everybody else be irrational in the other and tried to act as the voice of reason.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 04:47:09 pm
I'm not THAT bad at this game.

Though that could change very soon
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 04:47:58 pm
I can't believe a MAJORITY of players thinks skumpy is scummier than raptor.

I guess I'll support the swan lynch.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 04:49:20 pm
Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.

2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)

*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*


This is seriously lame that like 2 people have answered this despite me posting it 4 times.

If you don't have a good answer, vote Swan.

Swan, you've had an hour to think of your answer. You'd better have a good one.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 22, 2018, 04:53:19 pm
I'll go for vote: Swan.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 04:53:39 pm
L-1
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 22, 2018, 04:54:09 pm
L-1
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 04:54:13 pm
If this is town (which I still feel like it could be, despite my logic), lynch me tomorrow, I'll graciously take the LVP and apologize.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 22, 2018, 04:54:29 pm
L-1

Sorry.. just remembered, and you beat me to it!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 22, 2018, 04:57:05 pm
I can't believe a MAJORITY of players thinks skumpy is scummier than raptor.

I guess I'll support the swan lynch.

Might be good not to leave it till the last second. I think most of the people present are already on Swan now, right?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 22, 2018, 04:58:04 pm
Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.

2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)

*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*


This is seriously lame that like 2 people have answered this despite me posting it 4 times.

If you don't have a good answer, vote Swan.

Swan, you've had an hour to think of your answer. You'd better have a good one.


wtf are you talking about I answered this literally like 6 days ago.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 04:59:10 pm
*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*


Does anybody read anything I write?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 22, 2018, 04:59:34 pm
skum is playing ok, but town is playing bad.
look at the wagons people all I got to say.

My case on skumpy is light years ahead of anyone's "case on me" yet here we sit last minute as hell just whatevering...
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 04:59:43 pm
vote: swan
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 05:00:15 pm
I can't believe a MAJORITY of players thinks skumpy is scummier than raptor.

I guess I'll support the swan lynch.

Might be good not to leave it till the last second. I think most of the people present are already on Swan now, right?

thanks for saying that I would have missed it. For some reason I thought there were a few more minutes.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 22, 2018, 05:00:42 pm
welp I am VT

it is NOTTTTTT Raptor

it is probably skumpy

it is def SS

and it is most likely EFHW if one of those isn't right.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 22, 2018, 05:01:12 pm
yeah bummer - 17 seconds later and it would of been a good decision....
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 05:01:54 pm
well fuck. Not that I'm surprised.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 22, 2018, 05:02:27 pm
Eh, no-lynch is still quite bad.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 22, 2018, 05:02:45 pm
Since LL's not here yet Swan:

Also, since nobody's answered me:

Also, what on earth does this mean:
1) Does mason get N0 shot in this game? If yes - If they are the UB and are replaced by mason what are the chances they take the time to send the Night Action in?.

2) Does Mason N1 shot go ahead of the Skum NK (i.e. did II get a mason shot off last night at a minimum?)

*I know the questions to those two, I am putting them out there for those that don't*


That post from Swan was #478. Then at #497 he said that he'd mixed up Mason and Neighbourizer. What is left that you don't understand?

The last line, assuming he meant 'answers' instead of 'questions'. How do you know the answers to the questions that don't make sense?

On the one hand, these should still be questions you ask in a QT if you're scum. But if he's town, I don't see the rhyme or reason in it.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Swowl on August 22, 2018, 05:03:10 pm
go back and check the weak ass case that was made then look at who joined up - then compare that to yesterday. Normally wanna say I wouldn't have to point that out,  but since we are where we are at now....

Also - this is the fun part where you realize my flip pretty much tells you nothing because all I did was speculate. Simon is not more or less skummy because I am town. Raptor is not more or less skummy because I am town. The only upside to my lynch was if I flipped as skum... which I am pretty sure the majority of you probably assumed wouldn't happen.

Either way - GG all have fun gl town!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: LaLight on August 22, 2018, 05:05:33 pm
Thread Locked.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: LaLight on August 22, 2018, 05:06:44 pm
What do you feel now?

Vote Count 2.final


Skumpy (4): gkrieg13, Xxraptorslayer96, Awaclus, DatSwan
DatSwan (6): EFHW, Simon Jester, Skumpy, Robz888, SpaceAnemone, silverspawn

With 10 alive, it took 6 to Lynch.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: LaLight on August 22, 2018, 05:11:31 pm
You remembered your first outbursts. Walking in the park seeing someone yelling at their kids. Seeing a woman with a pram crossing the road on red. Seeing your favorite character dying in the book.

You reacted on those things as you felt right. You thought there are some things that people obviously should not do. But everyone just told you to stay Calm. "I don't belong to this world", said you.

DatSwan was Calm, a Vanilla Town.

Have a good night. It will end in 48 hours, 24th of August at 5 pm FT.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Full! PMs coming soon!)
Post by: LaLight on August 24, 2018, 05:38:13 pm
"Thank you, Mr. Therapist, but I don't think that I can be saved. Ever". Nothing good will ever happen to you. You are starting to lose it.

Simon Jester was killed! He was Calm, a Vanilla Townie.

Awaclus was killed! He was Joyful, a Town Mason.

Day 3 starts now!

Vote Count 3.0


Not Voting (7): Robz888, Skumpy, SpaceAnemone, EFHW, gkrieg13, silverspawn, Xxraptorslayer96

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 3 ends Friday, August 31th at 5.30 pm FT. Thread unlocked!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 24, 2018, 05:56:19 pm
Do we have consensus about claiming today? I can go first. Then we can set an order from there.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Full! PMs coming soon!)
Post by: Skumpy on August 24, 2018, 05:56:57 pm
Awaclus was killed! He was Joyful, a Town Mason.

That was a bad call. Win was in hand. Not game-losingly bad, since this is even more lost for town than before. But bad.

Before any claims happen, I need to know, for the third time:
Gkrieg: How confident are you in the towntell on Space?? 100%

I also wrote a nice, emotional pre-post 2 hours after the flip. I've calmed down since, but I'll post that when the time comes. As well as the more logical one I planned last night.

I'm not losing this a complete fool.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 24, 2018, 05:57:20 pm
Sorry I wasn't around for the deadline.  With Simon dead, we should have a little bit of information along with a couple of ICs.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Full! PMs coming soon!)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 24, 2018, 05:58:48 pm
Awaclus was killed! He was Joyful, a Town Mason.

That was a bad call. Win was in hand. Not game-losingly bad, since this is even more lost for town than before. But bad.

Before any claims happen, I need to know, for the third time:
Gkrieg: How confident are you in the towntell on Space?? 100%

I also wrote a nice, emotional pre-post 2 hours after the flip. I've calmed down since, but I'll post that when the time comes. As well as the more logical one I planned last night.

I'm not losing this a complete fool.

I'm certainly not 100% on it.  It's definitely not something I'm sticking to at LYLO, just something to keep in mind.  Space is smart, and they are more than capable of realizing something was a scumtell for them and not doing it.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 24, 2018, 05:59:15 pm
Wait, what does the first part of your post mean Skumpy?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 24, 2018, 05:59:58 pm
Wait, what does the first part of your post mean Skumpy?

It's Awaclus. It wasn't a mystery where his vote was going.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 24, 2018, 06:00:29 pm
I also think we should organize the claim without anyone saying much.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 24, 2018, 06:00:35 pm
Wait, what does the first part of your post mean Skumpy?

It's Awaclus. It wasn't a mystery where his vote was going.

It would've been a showy, unnecessary play to let him live. But if would have been juicy. Disappointed.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 24, 2018, 06:00:49 pm
I'm reasonably sure that the only person who's ever told me I've had a town tell before was lying scum.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Full! PMs coming soon!)
Post by: Skumpy on August 24, 2018, 06:02:18 pm
I also wrote a nice, emotional pre-post 2 hours after the flip.

The longer I sit on this, the longer it's going to look fake btw. But whatever.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 24, 2018, 06:02:53 pm
I'm reasonably sure that the only person who's ever told me I've had a town tell before was lying scum.

I'm saying you have a scum tell you aren't doing.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 24, 2018, 06:04:36 pm
Well, we should massclaim.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 24, 2018, 06:05:43 pm
massclaim is obvious.  Proposed order:

Skumpy
EFHW
silver
Raptor
Robz
Space
gkrieg
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 24, 2018, 06:06:16 pm
Claim 2nd, and I'm fine with that
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 24, 2018, 06:07:01 pm
Claim 2nd, and I'm fine with that

As in you want me to claim in the 2nd place? 
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 24, 2018, 06:07:09 pm
Would be pretty gutsy for scum!gkrieg to just be like, hey, here's the order, I'm last. Makes me think town.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 24, 2018, 06:08:26 pm
Sooner the better, whatever happens, with a vig around. Not that they're getting CCed.

VT
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 24, 2018, 06:08:43 pm
I'm fine with gkrieg's order, though I'm also really quite in need of sleep tonight, so I can't guarantee I'm awake close to the end of the process!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 24, 2018, 06:12:41 pm
oh my god.

Skumpy. I know you  don't mind claiming first because you're town. Buy you're supposed to claim later because we want SCUM to claim EARLY.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 24, 2018, 06:14:26 pm
massclaim is obvious.  Proposed order:

Skumpy
EFHW
silver
Raptor
Robz
Space
gkrieg

Hahaha. Ok, let's get serious.

1. Raptor
2. gkrieg
3. space
4. Robz
5. silver
6. EFHW
7. Skumpy
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Robz888 on August 24, 2018, 06:15:02 pm
What is the point of this? Skumpy already claimed.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 24, 2018, 06:15:21 pm
I know skumpy already claimed, which was a horrible idea. But let's follow that order from now on. Raptor claims next.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 24, 2018, 06:15:32 pm
oh my god.

Skumpy. I know you  don't mind claiming first because you're town. Buy you're supposed to claim later because we want SCUM to claim EARLY.

Don't butter me up, this is a vegan game.

If 6/7 of the people left have been here, let's claim and get this over with while scum's still digesting. I don't want to wait for Raptor to show.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 24, 2018, 06:16:18 pm
I think silver is conf!scum because of the Simon wagon at the end of D1. Everyone other than him and me on that wagon have already flipped town, and the wagon itself is now confirmed to have been on a town, as Skumpy said it would be.

I'm happy continuing the claim stuff before we start laying down votes, but no way am I following a claim order suggested by silver.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 24, 2018, 06:18:02 pm
Personally, I would like silver to claim next. I also think EFHW (who is unfortunately showing as now offline) should claim before Raptor, since I still think one of other of that pair has to be scum, and I'm leaning on it being EFHW, especially after all of yesterday's defensiveness.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 24, 2018, 06:18:21 pm
I think silver is conf!scum because of the Simon wagon at the end of D1. Everyone other than him and me on that wagon have already flipped town, and the wagon itself is now confirmed to have been on a town, as Skumpy said it would be.

I'm happy continuing the claim stuff before we start laying down votes, but no way am I following a claim order suggested by silver.

What about gkrieg and EFHW's first vote?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 24, 2018, 06:18:31 pm
I think silver is conf!scum because of the Simon wagon at the end of D1. Everyone other than him and me on that wagon have already flipped town, and the wagon itself is now confirmed to have been on a town, as Skumpy said it would be.

... so?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 24, 2018, 06:20:22 pm
like what does this even mean. there are 2 town wagons, why should being on one be worse than on the other?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 24, 2018, 06:24:03 pm
I think silver is conf!scum because of the Simon wagon at the end of D1. Everyone other than him and me on that wagon have already flipped town, and the wagon itself is now confirmed to have been on a town, as Skumpy said it would be.

I'm happy continuing the claim stuff before we start laying down votes, but no way am I following a claim order suggested by silver.

What about gkrieg and EFHW's first vote?

You mean their votes on the Simon wagon? They came over 100 votes after silver's, right as the deadline was drawing in.

There's also the fact that silver had three town votes on him earlier in D1 without a single scum showing up. I was willing to write that off earlier as scum knowing that my vote was more or less RVS, but right now it contributes to thinking he wasn't attracting scum votes because his buddies didn't feel the need risk pushing that wagon.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 24, 2018, 06:25:31 pm
I think silver is conf!scum because of the Simon wagon at the end of D1. Everyone other than him and me on that wagon have already flipped town, and the wagon itself is now confirmed to have been on a town, as Skumpy said it would be.

I'm happy continuing the claim stuff before we start laying down votes, but no way am I following a claim order suggested by silver.

What about gkrieg and EFHW's first vote?

You mean their votes on the Simon wagon? They came over 100 votes after silver's, right as the deadline was drawing in.

There's also the fact that silver had three town votes on him earlier in D1 without a single scum showing up. I was willing to write that off earlier as scum knowing that my vote was more or less RVS, but right now it contributes to thinking he wasn't attracting scum votes because his buddies didn't feel the need risk pushing that wagon.

Misunderstood, thought you meant EOD.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 24, 2018, 06:26:20 pm
There's also the fact that silver had three town votes on him earlier in D1 without a single scum showing up.
How could this possibly constitute any non-negligible amount of evidence? Are you telling me that votes early in day 1 are so far from random that if three people vote for someone that someone is probbaly scum? what?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 24, 2018, 06:26:38 pm
like what does this even mean. there are 2 town wagons, why should being on one be worse than on the other?

I mean it's exceedingly rare to have a purely town-on-town wagon, that endures for over 100 posts, and reaches five town-on-town votes with no action from scum. So the logical answer is that scum was involved, with a very high probability.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 24, 2018, 06:29:32 pm
like what does this even mean. there are 2 town wagons, why should being on one be worse than on the other?

I mean it's exceedingly rare to have a purely town-on-town wagon, that endures for over 100 posts, and reaches five town-on-town votes with no action from scum. So the logical answer is that scum was involved, with a very high probability.

But town doesn't know whether I'm town or scum. So how can me being town possibly make it less likely to happen?

If your point is just that it's unlikely for no scum to be ON a wagon for a long time, then idk if that's legit or not but we know it happened, so it doesn't matter.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 24, 2018, 06:32:54 pm
like what does this even mean. there are 2 town wagons, why should being on one be worse than on the other?

I mean it's exceedingly rare to have a purely town-on-town wagon, that endures for over 100 posts, and reaches five town-on-town votes with no action from scum. So the logical answer is that scum was involved, with a very high probability.

But town doesn't know whether I'm town or scum. So how can me being town possibly make it less likely to happen?

If your point is just that it's unlikely for no scum to be ON a wagon for a long time, then idk if that's legit or not but we know it happened, so it doesn't matter.

Actually, if you weren't already behaving like caught scum, you probably ought to be arguing that I could be scum for all you know. From your PoV, that still ought to have been a strong possibility if you were actually town, rather than scum who knows I'm innocent.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 24, 2018, 06:34:16 pm
Also can someone please explain to me how gkrieg, who has been flying under the radar the whole time in a game where every big wagon was on town and that really looks like scum is flying under the radar, is just treated like an IC? I don't understand. How is he not a major suspect? Why would anyone let him make a reads list?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 24, 2018, 06:35:38 pm
like what does this even mean. there are 2 town wagons, why should being on one be worse than on the other?

I mean it's exceedingly rare to have a purely town-on-town wagon, that endures for over 100 posts, and reaches five town-on-town votes with no action from scum. So the logical answer is that scum was involved, with a very high probability.

But town doesn't know whether I'm town or scum. So how can me being town possibly make it less likely to happen?

If your point is just that it's unlikely for no scum to be ON a wagon for a long time, then idk if that's legit or not but we know it happened, so it doesn't matter.

Actually, if you weren't already behaving like caught scum, you probably ought to be arguing that I could be scum for all you know. From your PoV, that still ought to have been a strong possibility if you were actually town, rather than scum who knows I'm innocent.

I have no idea what you're talking about. Do you admit that the original argument doesn't make any sense? If yes I can try to understand what new point you're making.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 24, 2018, 06:38:22 pm
Also can someone please explain to me how gkrieg, who has been flying under the radar the whole time in a game where every big wagon was on town and that really looks like scum is flying under the radar, is just treated like an IC? I don't understand. How is he not a major suspect? Why would anyone let him make a reads list?

Yesterday several of us agreed he's looking very townie. Skumpy even used his townread on gkrieg to assist his townread on me. The fact he hasn't picked up a single vote over the entire game so far implies that people townread him quite broadly!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 24, 2018, 06:39:21 pm
like what does this even mean. there are 2 town wagons, why should being on one be worse than on the other?

I mean it's exceedingly rare to have a purely town-on-town wagon, that endures for over 100 posts, and reaches five town-on-town votes with no action from scum. So the logical answer is that scum was involved, with a very high probability.

But town doesn't know whether I'm town or scum. So how can me being town possibly make it less likely to happen?

If your point is just that it's unlikely for no scum to be ON a wagon for a long time, then idk if that's legit or not but we know it happened, so it doesn't matter.

Actually, if you weren't already behaving like caught scum, you probably ought to be arguing that I could be scum for all you know. From your PoV, that still ought to have been a strong possibility if you were actually town, rather than scum who knows I'm innocent.

I have no idea what you're talking about. Do you admit that the original argument doesn't make any sense? If yes I can try to understand what new point you're making.

I've bolded the bit where you claim that we know there was indeed a five-towns-on-town wagon with no scum interference. You can't know that if you don't know my alignment.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 24, 2018, 06:44:12 pm
Also can someone please explain to me how gkrieg, who has been flying under the radar the whole time in a game where every big wagon was on town and that really looks like scum is flying under the radar, is just treated like an IC? I don't understand. How is he not a major suspect? Why would anyone let him make a reads list?

Why would we follow your reads list?  Especially when it is nearly the exact opposite of mine.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: gkrieg13 on August 24, 2018, 06:44:43 pm
Also why didn't you put yourself last on your claim list?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 24, 2018, 06:45:10 pm
So your point is that you were on the wagon?

I had no idea who was on the wagon. I don't even remember having had an early wagon in day 1. It's not really something important. I just took your word for it that there was one and that only town was on it.

Something went wrong this game if I'm having to defend myself from having had you and two other people vote for me early on.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 24, 2018, 06:48:45 pm
Also why didn't you put yourself last on your claim list?

Because I was making the list based on a vague estimate of how towny people 'ought' to be right now based on wagon positions and such, not on my personal reads. I don't expect people to townread me as much as skumpy. I'm pretty sure I'm harder to read.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 24, 2018, 06:52:50 pm
well I'm off to sleep. no way I'm claiming before raptor.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 24, 2018, 06:54:39 pm
While I'm arguing wagons. The Galz wagon was started by Robz at #313. Just over 80 posts later, it is again a wagon on town with five people, most of whom have now flipped town. The two who have not are Robz and Skumpy, so I'm confident that at least one of the two is scum.

Then from yesterday's play, I think there has to be one scum in {Skumpy, gkrieg, Raptor}, because that wagon endured for hundreds of posts, and the other later participants have now also both flipped town.

This isn't quite enough to solve the game on its own, but all it takes is a small number of "X is obviously not partners with Y" to narrow it down.

Anyway, I'm afraid it's bed for me for now. I would caution town against buying too much into the silver and Skumpy show if they continue to chat and suggest changing the claim list and stuff some more now!

PPE 5: yeah, sleep is good!
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 24, 2018, 06:58:15 pm
If either Raptor or gkrieg are town who have been tunneling me relentlessly this whole game, this is already over.

I don't want to vote Silver. That's a game-losing lynch on D3, because I'm next if he's scum. If town's winning this, I need to prove myself.

I'm done waiting, here's what I typed up 47 hours ago. It's harsh. It's over-the-top. It's also very amusing at this point in time. I'm taking out the bold of the vote for now...that will come later. Hopefully soon. (I also wrote 'basically LYLO' before I knew somebody was going to shoot my biggest townread)




(Disclaimer: Profanity restrained and edited out as much as possible: that doesnít mean there isnít any)

Iím mad. Iím very, very mad. Mad at Awaclus for the usual reasons. Mad at Swan for not reading my posts. Mad at LaLight for terrifying me with the flavor. Mad at myself. Mad at Faust, and he isnít even in this game. Not mad at the scum team, you guys have been great!

Two dead townies have accused silver with their dying breath. Town all thinks Iím teamed with him. I should probably be voting there to have the best chance of being right. I said if Swanís town, heís scum. Super suspicious that Iím not, right? Well, Iím beyond caring.

Vote: Gkrieg

Rational side first. This is basically LYLO. No strongman roleblockling is happening tonight. If gkriegís going to be voting for me, again, no matter who I vote for, then 3 scum get to pile on and then itís all over. Yes, there could be 2 RBís who counterclaim each other and thatís where the vote gets placed. Maybe gkriegís even the town RB, heaven forbid. Doesnít matter. Thereís no way he votes where I vote today. Therefore, Iím forced into counter-voting my voter.

Less rational side as I let emotions take hold: No, no, and no again. Life is too short for me to have spent more than 1/26 of 2018 letting you accuse me and me going, ďno, no, itís fine. I get it. Good call!Ē Iím past that. If youíre scum, Iím not letting you win this game and bring home the MVP without taking on a single vote this whole goddamn time. And if youíre town, I may have been awful and as I said, Iím more than comfortable taking the LVP, but youíve been just as bad. Iíve at least thrown out a scum name at some point. You havenít. So let this be a lesson before you get confident and tunnel me relentlessly an entire game. Donít ever pull that shit again, no matter how convinced you are. Ignore that if youíre scum, seriously well played.

If you townies arenít convinced by anything at all, vote me and letís get this over with, no need to prolong this disaster any longer. Scum, please do the same if Iím wrong.

Rantís over. Love you all, Iím sure youíre all great people with great character. How is everybody feeling today? Any fun weekend plans?



As for the logical stuff I promised:
I haven't played well enough this game for all 3 scum to not vote me D2, despite the fact that I maintain I had a very good case on Swan. There's scum in gkrieg and Raptor. If I'm wrong, they're coming for me anyways, what I can do?

If Raptor is scum without gkrieg, then it's either:

Raptor/Space/EFHW
Raptor/Space/Silver
Raptor/Space/Robz
Raptor/EFHW/Silver
Raptor/EFHW/Robz
Raptor/Silver/Robz

By gkrieg's own admission, he can read Space. If he's town and they're scum, I'm definitely holding him very accountable, though I'll take 2nd prize.
I believe I was wrong, that EOD2 interaction doesn't seem like team infighitng between Raptor and Silver. Could be wrong. DatSwan also knows Raptor, I'll put some faith in that read. Swan was very wrong about one thing though; give scum more credit than 'they've been OK'.
And if Silver's town and Raptor's scum, Raptor doesn't put the vote on scum!EFHW before VLA. Especially since my vote's not going to ss.

Gkrieg it is for me.

Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 24, 2018, 06:58:37 pm
Question for LL before I go, so I might get an answer before I'm awake again: may I post historical vote counts coloured in as part of a case, or would you prefer that I only do them in black text?
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 24, 2018, 07:46:13 pm
Also can someone please explain to me how gkrieg, who has been flying under the radar the whole time in a game where every big wagon was on town and that really looks like scum is flying under the radar, is just treated like an IC? I don't understand. How is he not a major suspect? Why would anyone let him make a reads list?
How about this: I'm the Roleblocker. Not saying who I blocked. My suggested order:

Robz
raptor
gkrieg
Space
silver
Skumpy

Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Skumpy on August 24, 2018, 08:08:18 pm
Not saying who I blocked.
It's not going to really matter anyways, not with a full strongman. Assuming you're town, the person you RB'd may even be the vig if scum RB'd you.

Vig: Do not claim 1-shot or full. We're at 4 known non-T's. Scum cannot tell the difference between 4 and 5
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: EFHW on August 24, 2018, 10:19:54 pm
Not saying who I blocked.
It's not going to really matter anyways, not with a full strongman. Assuming you're town, the person you RB'd may even be the vig if scum RB'd you
Yes, I realize that.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: LaLight on August 25, 2018, 02:36:34 am
Question for LL before I go, so I might get an answer before I'm awake again: may I post historical vote counts coloured in as part of a case, or would you prefer that I only do them in black text?

Sure, but donít use AA00AA plz
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: silverspawn on August 25, 2018, 05:00:52 am
How about this: I'm the Roleblocker. Not saying who I blocked. My suggested order:

Robz
raptor
gkrieg
Space
silver
Skumpy

Tht's fine with me.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 25, 2018, 05:34:50 am
I wasn't expecting that from EFHW, but it helps us a lot with PoE on inactive players if it's true. I don't like how far down her claim list my biggest scumread is sitting, though, so I'm maintaining some scepticism until we know if anyone is going to counterclaim.

In fact, would it be worth doing a round of yes/no to whether anyone is counterclaiming EFHW before proceeding with the claims? As I said earlier, there is a small risk that we do have two genuine RBs (not counting the scum one), but I also think that's further reduced now that we've seen two kills in a relatively small number of players.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: Xxraptorslayer96 on August 25, 2018, 06:13:22 am
Ahh, I was totally off by a day. Iíve just done a quick read through. I donít mind EFHWís claims list. Iíll check in to claim tomorrow.
Title: Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)
Post by: SpaceAnemone on August 25, 2018, 06:25:26 am
Here's my case on silver. This is probabilistic, rather than anything based on slips and tells, but then he's a very experienced player, so it's not surprising.

1) I actually disagreed with most of Galz's case on him early on, because I thought that what Galz was scumreading was just silver's style. I'm defensive about that because I aim to play in a Bayesian style too.

2) The first alarm bell was when I looked at the voting patterns in N1 and noticed that from my point of view, everyone voting for silver at #219 was town, and yet no scums were attracted to that wagon:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (3): SpaceAnemone, Galzria, iguanaiguana
SpaceAnemone (1): EFHW
Awaclus (2): Robz888, Skumpy
EFHW (4): silverspawn, Awaclus, Simon Jester, Xxraptorslayer96
Not Voting (1): DatSwan
As I say, this was very weak evidence, because people were aware that my vote had been RVS. Iguana diverted to the EFHW wagon not long after.

3) silver started the Simon wagon at #244, and it grew quite rapidly. Here's what that looked like at #289 at #313; nobody else moved on or off in between.
#289
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
Awaclus (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, iguanaiguana, Awaclus

#313
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
silverspawn (1): Galzria
Awaclus (2): Skumpy, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (5)