There is a strategy article about the penultimate province and I have to admit that I read it long time ago and I dont remember it very well^^
I just remember that I should not buy the penultimate province when my opponent can win by buying the last province.
Are there exceptions?
kingdom:
(http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/images/d/d6/Woodcutter.jpg) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Woodcutter) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/images/6/65/Quarry.jpg) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Quarry) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/images/c/cb/Spy.jpg) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Spy) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/images/4/4c/Giant.jpg) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Giant) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/images/7/7e/Fairgrounds.jpg) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Fairgrounds)
(http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/images/2/29/Chapel.jpg) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Chapel) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/images/f/f7/Develop.jpg) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Develop) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/images/e/e1/Guide.jpg) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Guide) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/images/f/fc/Oasis.jpg) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Oasis) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/images/c/c2/Watchtower.jpg) (http://wiki.dominionstrategy.com/index.php/Watchtower)
Chapel, Develop, Guide, Oasis, Watchtower, Woodcutter, Quarry, Spy, Giant, Fairgrounds
game log:
http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?http://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20161102/log.0.1478088478434.txt
go to turn 18 he has 4 colonies, I have 2.
Is it possible to get an edge in this situation if you look at the log?
For example in another game, there were only 2 provinces left and I looked in the log and said to myself:
"If 2 of his 3 Gold are in the discard pile and he does not trigger a shuffle, then I risk to buy the penultimate province"
It worked. with my rule I bought a duchy on two consecutive turns and on the two following turns I bought a province each.
My question is: If you get in this situation (like in the linked log) is it over or should I have a closer look on my opponents deck and discard pile?