Dominion Strategy Forum

Miscellaneous => Forum Games => Mafia Game Threads => Topic started by: yuma on September 15, 2014, 10:48:09 pm

Title: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: yuma on September 15, 2014, 10:48:09 pm
Mafia 51: Silo Mafia

Mods: yuma, mail-mi

This is a normal mafia game. The setup is invented and has been titled, Traitor8. See further set-up and deadline information in Post 2.

Players:
1. Eevee (VT) - Lynched on D4
2. Ichimaru Gin (Mafia Traitor) - Lynched on D3
3. ashersky (Serial Killer) wins!
4. faust (Mafia Goon) - Killed on N4
5. silverspawn (Jailkeeper) - Killed on N3
6. witherweaver (VT) - Endgamed
7. hydrad (Mafia Goon) - Lynched on D2
8. xerxes (VT) - Lynched on D1
9. ADK (VT) - Killed on N1
10. Jimmmmm (1-Shot Commuter) - Modkilled on D5
11. joth (Detective) - Killed on N3

tagged: 2.7, scott, kingzog

f.ds Mafia Ruleset

The Golden Rule:

Please remember that this is a game and your main objective is to have fun! Be considerate of each other, don’t get personal, and enjoy the game.

Please read The Civility Pledge before signing up for this game. If you have not /pledged there, you cannot play here.

Excessive personal attacks or uncivil behavior may be dealt with by modifiers or modkills.

General Gameplay and Etiquette:

1. You may not quote private Moderator-supplied information (either real or fabricated) of any kind. Paraphrasing (for role claims, etc.) is acceptable, check with the mod if you need clarifications.
2. Personal communication outside of the forum postings is NOT ALLOWED unless your Role PM specifically allows it.
3. If you have a role with a Night action, your choices are due to all mods by the posted deadline (generally 48 hours from Night start during the first few Nights; later Nights may have shorter deadlines). If we do not receive your choice via PM by the posted deadline you will forfeit your actions. In case of multiple submissions, the last valid one before the deadline will be used. Generally, one team member may submit the Night Actions for all team members. See rule 7 under miscellaneous below if you anticipate being VLA while having a PR.
4. Roles with Night actions will not be able to submit an action on Night 0 (i.e. during the confirmation stage), unless your Role PM specifically allows it.
5. Any player with a Night action may instead submit a “No Action” PM to let the Mods know that you do not want to perform your expected action that Night phase, unless your Action is compulsory.
6. As a general rule you should aim for more than one post every 24 hours, minimum, to keep the game moving. Please treat this game as a commitment. If you can't commit to this game because of outside activities/responsibilities, other forum games or other contributing factors please /out before the start of the game.


Voting, Deadlines, and Player Death:

1. A simple majority (rounded up) of all living members must agree on one person for a lynch to occur prior to deadline.
2. Once you have reached a simple majority no further unvoting will change someone’s fate. Further votes will also be ignored.
3. Once a player is lynched the game enters twilight until I post a death scene; all players including the one who was lynched may continue to post during twilight.
4. Please submit votes as: Vote: PlayerName. Votes will NOT be counted if they are not bold or do not follow this syntax! Obvious abbreviations or nicknames will be counted so long as they are unambiguous.
5. Please submit vote revocations as either Unvote: PlayerName or Unvote. Unvotes are not necessary before changing votes.
6. You may Vote: No Lynch - a simple majority of these vote types are required to send the game to Night phase without a lynch.
7. Once you are killed (either via lynch or night kill) you may no longer post in the game or in Quicktopics, except for twilight. This means that you do not even get a “Bah” post. The dead in this game are silent, but will be invited to the Spectator Quicktopic.
8. Do not edit or delete posts. We don't want some players having more information than others. If you want to clarify posts, feel free to double post.
9. This game will have 10 day deadlines and 2 days nights.

Miscellaneous/Mechanics:

1. Bold, brown text is reserved for the Mod. No invisible/small text is allowed, nor is cryptography.
2. If you have an issue/problem with the game, please PM the Mods privately. Do not post issues/complaints in the game thread.
3. The Mods may make mistakes - please point out any mistakes gently. Mistakes will be corrected where possible, but sometimes mistakes are made that cannot be reversed. These will stand as final to be commiserated over after the game. In the event of an incorrect vote count the mod has the right to revert the game state back to the state before the erroneous vote count. This means that any votes cast in the meantime will become void. Any time that was lost during this even will be added back onto for deadlines. Please note that if a mistake is not caught before a flip, the erroneous vote count will become binding.
4. Please bold all requests to the Mods so that they don’t get missed.
5. Prods of missing players will be issued automatically after 24 hours of no activity (VLA posts in the official VLA thread negate automatic prods). A prodded player has 24 hours to respond or risks replacement. A player who has been prodded 3 times is subject to replacement without further notice.
6. Rule violations will be dealt with according to their severity, up to and including a Modkill, or beyond.
7. If you anticipate being unavailable for more than a 48-hour period please post a notice to that effect in the thread. Treat this game as a commitment. Be considerate – don’t leave us hanging. If you have a Power Role and go on VLA for longer than 2 days (the time period of a Night) please submit a temporary Night Action before leaving on VLA. This will be a placeholder action in the event that you will be absent during the night. Failure to submit an action before leaving will result in a "no action" that night.
8. Players who discover they are too busy to play in a game or want to leave the game for civility issues are not allowed to officially /out in the thread. A request to /out must only be done via a PM to the moderator. Please do not use this as a manipulation technique. (Note players may continue to threaten to /out or imply that they might as long as it does not include an official request). Requests to /out are final once submitted. There will be no /outing and then /inning back into the game so make sure that when you /out you have thought it through and really want to do it. Players that can't be replaced will simply be mod-killed.
Title: Re: Mafia ?? : Silo Mafia - Signups Open - Setup Coming Soon
Post by: yuma on September 15, 2014, 10:48:28 pm
This setups is an invented, open setup called Traitor8 for 11 players.

Please PM me if you have any concerns or questions. This setup can be modified if it appears to be broken or flawed. I would rather change something than run a broken setup so please don't hesitate to PM me. But please do not discuss theory or problems with the setup in the thread.

Mafia:
2 Mafia + 1 Roleblocking Traitor

Town:
Up to 8 players

One of the following rows or columns adding a scum add on depending on the row added:


xxxx               Column1         Column2         Column3         Column4         Add-On           
Row1              VT                  Detective         1-shot CommuterGoon Cop         1-shot Investigation Immune/SK
Row2                Watcher            JK                     VT                     Psychologist       2-shot JOAT       
Row3                1-shot Bulletproof Townie VT                     JK                     BodyguardTraitor Knows Mafia         
Row4                 1-shot CommuterPsychologist        Detective            VT                      Mafia Knows Traitor   
Add-On              2-shot JOAT       Mafia Knows Traitor/SKTraitorKnows Mafia/SK1-shot Investigation Immune      xxxxxxx           

To clarify here are the 8 options:

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune


Serial Killer: (if applicable, present 3/8 of the time)
- 2-shot JOAT, which includes a passive 1-shot Bulletproof, 1-shot Strongman, 1-shot Investigation Immune. If the Bulletproof is used up one JOAT attributes will be lost. If both the Strongman or Investigation Immune is used at night the Bulletproof will be lost as well.
- The SK may choose to give up NK and instead perform any one of the 8 town roles listed above during the night. Each role may only be used once by the Sk during the game.


Mechanics:
- All roles will be used according to mafiascum specification unless otherwise noted below.
- Daystart
- Mafia JOAT is an option of Strongman and Ninja (each can only be used once) and is not an assigned role, instead it is universal for the mafia team. But is instead a role that any alive mafia player can use it while performing the night kill.
- Mafia Investigation Immune is universal. It will return results of "Not Goon" to Goon Cops, "Not Killed" to Detectives, "Can't Kill" to Psychologists and "Didn't Target Anyone" to Watchers.
- Traitor does not know the identity of Mafia Partners unless it is added on as a bonus. Traitor will be informed at day start of the Mafia's identities in a PM if that add-on is selected.
- Mafia does not know the identity of the Traitor unless it is added on as a bonus. The Mafia will be informed at day start of the Mafia's identities in their quicktopic if that add-on is selected.
- Flavor will indicate if a player was killed by multiple factions, but will not indicate which alignment performed specific kills.
- When the Traitor dies, if at least one Mafia Goon is still alive one will be chosen at random to inherit the Roleblocking role. This Goon will be transformed from a Goon to a Mafia Roleblocker.
- If the Mafia target the Traitor with a NK, the Traitor will not die unless mafia is using a strongman kill. Otherwise, the Traitor will be recruited and become a Mafia Roleblocker and be given access to the quicktopic.
- The Traitor can Roleblock a Mafia NK.
- If the Traitor will inherit the NK and become a Mafia Roleblocker if is the only Mafia player alive.
- Goon Cop will return results of Goon or Not Goon.
- Detective will return results of having killed or not killed.
- Psychlogist will return results of being capable of killing or not capable. But if a kill has been performed previously, the result will be falsified. Traitors are not capable of killing until they have been converted into Mafia Roleblockers
- Roles cannot target themselves.
- Roles will not be indicative of alignment, except for one exception that will not be disclosed. All other roles will be rolled randomly.
- Mafia will have fakeclaims.

Order of Operations: (roles listed earlier in parenthesis will be performed simultaneously)
Modifiers (Ninja/Strongman)
Commuter
Blocking (Jailkeeper, Roleblocking)
Protective (Bodyguard, Bulletproof)
Killing
Investigative (Watcher, Psychologist, Detective, Goon Cop)

Win Conditions:
- Town wins when all threats to the Silo have been eliminated.
- Mafia wins when Mafia (not counting the Traitor, unless the traitor has become a Mafia Roleblocker) controls at least half of the silo and the SK, if present, has been eliminated.
- Serial Killer wins when all other players have been eliminated. If a scenario exists where a Serial Killer and a Mafia the following will be followed:
   * If Bernard is the last mafia alive, Mafia will win.
   * If Senator Thurman or Anna Thurman is the last mafia alive, the SK will win.
Title: Re: Mafia ?? : Silo Mafia - Signups Open - Setup Coming Soon
Post by: Eevee on September 16, 2014, 01:09:34 am
in!
Title: Re: Mafia ?? : Silo Mafia - Signups Open - Setup Coming Soon
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 16, 2014, 01:24:46 am
/interesting

Title: Re: Mafia ?? : Silo Mafia - Signups Open - Setup Coming Soon
Post by: ashersky on September 16, 2014, 03:07:51 am
/in for flavor, but would give way if too many sign up.
Title: Re: Mafia ?? : Silo Mafia - Signups Open - Setup Coming Soon
Post by: faust on September 16, 2014, 05:11:22 am
/in
Title: Re: Mafia ?? : Silo Mafia - Signups Open - Setup Coming Soon
Post by: mail-mi on September 16, 2014, 09:10:07 am
/tag
Title: Re: Mafia ?? : Silo Mafia - Signups Open - Setup Coming Soon
Post by: yuma on September 16, 2014, 11:48:29 am
Got some good feedback already. Will make some slight tweaks that should help in a bit.

regardless this game won't start until we get the games that are going a bit further in, and some of the games I am not following (Zelda and Pokemon?) complete. One in D1 and two in D2. I think it would be good to have a bit of space from those.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open - Setup Coming Soon
Post by: silverspawn on September 16, 2014, 12:50:46 pm
/in
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open - Setup Coming Soon
Post by: Witherweaver on September 16, 2014, 12:51:10 pm
/in
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (5 Spots Available)
Post by: yuma on September 17, 2014, 09:23:12 pm
Changed a little bit to the setup to reflect some changes. Again, feel free to look it over and get back to me. Modified some stuff to prevent some potentially broken scenarios, removed a role that was unnecessary, modified win conditions and added an element to make solving the setup more difficult.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (5 Spots Available)
Post by: Hydrad on September 18, 2014, 01:24:21 am
/in!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (5 Spots Available)
Post by: 2.71828..... on September 18, 2014, 04:46:10 pm
/tag. yuma game
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (5 Spots Available)
Post by: XerxesPraelor on September 18, 2014, 11:21:42 pm
/in
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (3 Spots Available)
Post by: scott_pilgrim on September 18, 2014, 11:38:02 pm
/tag
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (3 Spots Available)
Post by: yuma on September 19, 2014, 12:50:58 am
Ok, hopefully the last change has been made. After a series of steps that made the setup increasingly more complex I decide to take a step backwards. I removed some of the unnecessary elements but kept the original premise and kept some added complexity by creating a 4x4 matrix rather than a 3x3 matrix. The central theme remains, as do all of the roles, now the spread just provides a little bit more in way of options.

The gist of the setup is the same, just added a little bit more diversity. It is late and my head is a bit tired so there may still be something I missed. Again, PM me if you have concerns. Since this is an open setup I want it as close to perfect as I can get it. Thanks to everyone who provided feedback thus far.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (3 Spots Available)
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 19, 2014, 11:41:51 pm
/in
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (2 Spots Available)
Post by: Eevee on September 20, 2014, 05:01:12 pm
Join people, join! I'm about to be gameless.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (2 Spots Available)
Post by: yuma on September 20, 2014, 09:59:15 pm
Also I should mention that this game will be unrunable without some sort of back up mod. There will likely be a few 1-2 day stretches where I won't have internet access and will need some assistance.

If anyone would be willing I would appreciate it! (aside from those who have already signed up to play)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (2 Spots Available)
Post by: mail-mi on September 21, 2014, 11:19:09 am
Also I should mention that this game will be unrunable without some sort of back up mod. There will likely be a few 1-2 day stretches where I won't have internet access and will need some assistance.

If anyone would be willing I would appreciate it! (aside from those who have already signed up to play)
I'm willing.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (2 Spots Available Need Backup Mod)
Post by: EgorK on September 22, 2014, 05:04:03 pm
I'm willing being backup mod as well
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (2 Spots Available Need Backup Mod)
Post by: Eevee on September 22, 2014, 05:15:26 pm
Would it be possible for me to play multiple spots?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (2 Spots Available Need Backup Mod)
Post by: jotheonah on September 22, 2014, 05:27:59 pm
/in
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (2 Spots Available Need Backup Mod)
Post by: KingZog3 on September 22, 2014, 05:34:12 pm
/tag (that's for spectating right?)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (2 Spots Available Need Backup Mod)
Post by: Jimmmmm on September 22, 2014, 06:24:30 pm
/in

I'll soon be in no games, and my RL craziness looks like it's clearing up somewhat, so I should be able to give one game a suitable amount of focus.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: yuma on September 22, 2014, 07:20:14 pm
Game is full. PMs will be coming out later tonight or tomorrow. Once PMs are out the period for raising concerns about the setup will be passed. I think the kinks are worked out and feel pretty confident about the setup right now, so we should be good!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: Robz888 on September 22, 2014, 07:28:22 pm
/tag

This will be the first normal game of Forum Mafia without me in it!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: liopoil on September 22, 2014, 07:29:39 pm
/tag for speccy
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: Hydrad on September 22, 2014, 07:29:46 pm
/tag

This will be the first normal game of Forum Mafia without me in it!

50s a pretty good run.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: ashersky on September 22, 2014, 07:30:27 pm
/tag

This will be the first normal game of Forum Mafia without me in it!

I can trade with you if you want to keep the streak alive.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: Robz888 on September 22, 2014, 07:33:47 pm
Nah, I'm going into semi-retirement with my wedding coming up. Lots of changes happening.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: Hydrad on September 22, 2014, 07:34:42 pm
did robzzz img dissapear for anyone else?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: Robz888 on September 22, 2014, 07:36:43 pm
did robzzz img dissapear for anyone else?

I changed it! For the first time... ever. Hopefully new one is showing up.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: Jimmmmm on September 22, 2014, 07:38:08 pm
did robzzz img dissapear for anyone else?

I changed it! For the first time... ever. Hopefully new one is showing up.

I don't know how to feel about this.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 22, 2014, 07:41:12 pm
I don't know how to feel about this.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: ashersky on September 22, 2014, 07:41:56 pm
vote: Robz
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: Jimmmmm on September 22, 2014, 07:43:24 pm
Vote: Robz
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: silverspawn on September 22, 2014, 07:44:31 pm
Vote: Robz
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: Hydrad on September 22, 2014, 07:49:01 pm
Vote: Robz
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: liopoil on September 22, 2014, 07:51:20 pm
Vote: Robz
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: Eevee on September 22, 2014, 07:52:15 pm
I feel it's a whole new person.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: ashersky on September 22, 2014, 07:55:08 pm
Robz888, I suggest you sign up for a newbie game as a newcomer to forum mafia here.  It'll help you get to know our style, and also the rules of the game.  After that, you should try one of these invented ones.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: Eevee on September 22, 2014, 07:59:36 pm
And don't hesitate to ask any questions!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: 2.71828..... on September 22, 2014, 08:29:06 pm
wait, we are all doing a vote: robz?

Also, the new image is pretty cool.  And getting married does tend to cause changes to happen.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: silverspawn on September 22, 2014, 08:30:08 pm
I thought we were expressing our dislike for the new image with the votes.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: 2.71828..... on September 22, 2014, 08:31:32 pm
Robz888, I suggest you sign up for a newbie game as a newcomer to forum mafia here.  It'll help you get to know our style, and also the rules of the game.  After that, you should try one of these invented ones.

No, he should just switch over to RMM instead of normal games.  I have never played a RMM game with Robz.  Of course, I can't play mafia right now because of work so that doesn't really matter.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: Archetype on September 22, 2014, 09:17:56 pm
Robz888, I suggest you sign up for a newbie game as a newcomer to forum mafia here.  It'll help you get to know our style, and also the rules of the game.  After that, you should try one of these invented ones.

No, he should just switch over to RMM instead of normal games.  I have never played a RMM game with Robz.  Of course, I can't play mafia right now because of work so that doesn't really matter.
That'll change once LOST mafia opens.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (PMs coming shortly)
Post by: yuma on September 22, 2014, 09:30:25 pm
PMs have been sent out. Night0 starts now. Day1 will start in about 24 hours. Thread is locked except for people wishing to tag. Please move any discussion of Robz's new avatar to the "Apparently this is where we talk at night thread."
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo Mafia - Signups Open (Night0)
Post by: Voltaire on September 22, 2014, 09:32:22 pm
/tag
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start
Post by: yuma on September 23, 2014, 06:44:44 pm
Day1 Start

The area around the stairs was teaming with kids. The Crow had just let her class of rambunctious third years out for the day and they were making a racket. Some were dropping plastic bits down the stairwell--to the annoyance of porters trudging up the stairs. Others were pulling themselves up onto the bar to get the dizzying view dozens of floors down.

Suddenly a large group came rushing up the stairs. Kids were pushed up against the walls and railing. One small child nearly fell over! It appeared to be some sort of uprising. People were mad. There were shouts in the air! "We don't have enough food!" "Down with IT!" Everyone had a grievance. It was true. The silo was in a state of chaos the last few months. Nothing was were it should be and everyone was in a state of panic.

What the silo really needed though was a good cleaning. Someone to go outside and relieve some of the tension. It had been a while since a cleaning had happened and the silo was due.

Day1 Starts Now

Thread Unlocked



Vote Count 1.0


Not Voting (11): Eevee, Ichimaru, ashersky, faust, silverspawn, witherweaver, hydrad, xerxes, ADK, Jimmmmm, joth

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day1 will last 10 days. The deadline for Day1 will be Friday, October 3 at 7 pm forum time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Teproc on September 23, 2014, 06:47:32 pm
/tag

(stole first, haha !)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 23, 2014, 06:51:53 pm
The real first!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 23, 2014, 06:52:03 pm
Vote: Eevee

For lurking this game

PPE: dang
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 23, 2014, 06:53:07 pm
Not Voting (11): Eevee, Ichimaru, ashersky, faust, silverspawn, witherweaver, hydrad, xerxes, ADK, Jimmmmm, joth

You are all people I already know fairly well, I feel this is a first in a long while.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 23, 2014, 06:56:42 pm
We have a new setup here. Seems to lend itself well for theory talk, which I'm looking forward to, but everyone remember to be very careful about not hinting at your role or the lack of one.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on September 23, 2014, 06:58:03 pm
Vote: Hydrad for an inflated case on Eevee.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 23, 2014, 06:59:40 pm
Vote: Robz for buddying me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 23, 2014, 07:00:06 pm
Oh wait.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on September 23, 2014, 07:01:01 pm
Heh.

Don't worry, I'll change back soon.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 23, 2014, 07:02:01 pm
By the way, it isn't scummy from you.

We caught the SK, of course we are buddies!*highfive*
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 23, 2014, 07:16:49 pm
Damn it. I so thought Jimmmmm was Robz just now, and probably will continue to until he changes his avatar.

vote: Jimmmmm

Also, I'm with Eeevee in that it's interesting that I know everyone in this game fairly well
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 23, 2014, 07:26:29 pm
I am Donald, a Vanilla Townie.

sup?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 23, 2014, 07:26:36 pm
vote: fuzzy

pretty clear scum play here from Eevee.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 23, 2014, 07:26:58 pm
oh man, why you gotta VT claim silverspawn?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 23, 2014, 07:27:34 pm
oh man, why you gotta VT claim silverspawn?

would you rather have me claim Mafia Goon?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 23, 2014, 07:27:40 pm
I am Donald, a Vanilla Townie.

sup?
What the hell?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 23, 2014, 07:28:23 pm
vote: fuzzy

pretty clear scum play here from Eevee.
If you look at my most recent games, I think you'll find I'm pretty clearly town, and on a winning streak to top that!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 23, 2014, 07:29:00 pm
i'm assuming SS was just joking?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 23, 2014, 07:29:33 pm
oh man, why you gotta VT claim silverspawn?

would you rather have me claim Mafia Goon?

actually yeah, that would save us a whole heap of trouble if accurate.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 23, 2014, 07:30:05 pm
i'm assuming SS was just joking?
I don't think so. Lying maybe, but I don't think you joke about stuff like that (and get away with it).

PPE: 1
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 23, 2014, 07:30:37 pm
oh man, why you gotta VT claim silverspawn?

would you rather have me claim Mafia Goon?

actually yeah, that would save us a whole heap of trouble if accurate.

it's not. too bad.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 23, 2014, 07:31:15 pm
What was your reason for claiming VT?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 23, 2014, 07:31:38 pm
oh man, why you gotta VT claim silverspawn?

would you rather have me claim Mafia Goon?

actually yeah, that would save us a whole heap of trouble if accurate.

it's not. too bad.
Only one way to find out. . . ;D
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 23, 2014, 07:33:08 pm
What was your reason for claiming VT?

I don't think I want to answer that.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 23, 2014, 07:34:19 pm
What was your reason for claiming VT?

I don't think I want to answer that.
Why not? This seems an incredibly odd response if you're really a VT.
It sounds much more like you're lying (as town or scum).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 23, 2014, 07:36:07 pm
well I guess this is one way to end the RVS stage almost immediatly
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 23, 2014, 07:39:02 pm
What am I missing about the flavor, btw?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 23, 2014, 07:40:13 pm
What was your reason for claiming VT?

I don't think I want to answer that.
Why not? This seems an incredibly odd response if you're really a VT.
It sounds much more like you're lying (as town or scum).

maybe scum thinks so too, i'll be lynched day one, and the NK flies out of the window for a newbie and a VT. profit.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 23, 2014, 07:40:40 pm
Well IVote: Ichimaru, that's so scummy.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 23, 2014, 07:41:13 pm
Well IVote: Ichimaru, that's so scummy.
?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 23, 2014, 07:41:24 pm
be also prepared that I'll play differently from my previous games.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 23, 2014, 07:41:27 pm
Silverspawn, what you are doing will lead us down a dark route.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 23, 2014, 07:42:22 pm
Well IVote: Ichimaru, that's so scummy.
?
It's almost like half "creating suspicion where no suspicion is due" and half "blatant rolefishing".
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 23, 2014, 07:42:57 pm
What am I missing about the flavor, btw?
I've heard a fair amount about the series but never actually read it.
I checked the wiki though and Donald is a character in the books (but obv. not Donald X.) which I think is what may have made it confusing.

PPE:

Silverspawn, what you are doing will lead us down a dark route.
Ok I am incredibly confused right now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 23, 2014, 07:43:35 pm
suddenly trying to change you meta or having a meta chance can sometimes be a first time scum thing. Just letting you know. I guess its nice of you to let us know before hand?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 23, 2014, 07:44:29 pm
When he makes us guess whether he is lying town, truthful town or scum, he makes us give out information about our own roles.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 23, 2014, 07:45:24 pm
suddenly trying to change you meta or having a meta chance can sometimes be a first time scum thing. Just letting you know. I guess its nice of you to let us know before hand?
The other side of the coin of course being "why would he direct the attention to himself like that if he was scum?".
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 23, 2014, 07:45:34 pm
I'm here.  I might have a plan.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 23, 2014, 07:45:50 pm
I'm here.  I might have a plan.

I'm interested
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 23, 2014, 07:46:06 pm
Listening!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on September 23, 2014, 07:46:51 pm
Unprompted early D1 VT claim? Not good. Vote: silverspawn
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 23, 2014, 07:47:37 pm
Well IVote: Ichimaru, that's so scummy.
?
It's almost like half "creating suspicion where no suspicion is due" and half "blatant rolefishing".
Where no suspicion is due?

Who claims VT immediately day 1? This is incredibly suspicious behavior. I don't entirely get your comment about it "leading down a dark route", but that doesn't sound as if you approve of it.

PPE: 7
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 23, 2014, 07:48:43 pm
Silverspawn's claim throws a wrench into things, generally.

I was looking at the setup, which is a Matrix6 variant.  I think we need to discuss the importance (or lack thereof) of knowing what bonus the mafia received.  If we think it's important to know, I think there are some ways to suss out some info.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on September 23, 2014, 07:52:26 pm
Unprompted early D1 VT claim? Not good. Vote: silverspawn

"Hey, Robz is thinking along the same lines as me. Oh wait."
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 23, 2014, 07:53:31 pm
Unprompted early D1 VT claim? Not good. Vote: silverspawn

"Hey, Robz is thinking along the same lines as me. Oh wait."

Yeah, I thought that was Robz, too.

You gotta change back.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 23, 2014, 07:54:36 pm
What am I missing about the flavor, btw?

It's a spoiler, so only read if you really care: Cleaning is a death sentence.  We all live in a silo underground that protects us from the nuclear wasteland that was Earth.  If you go out to clean the screens that project the outside image onto the big screen in the silo, you don't come back.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 23, 2014, 08:02:06 pm
I missed the part about what the flavor even is.

vote: Jimmmmm until he changes his avatar, for reals.

silverspawn claiming VT seems like a ridiculous newbie play, I'm not sure if it comes from scum or from town. I don't like it but I don't think it points one way or the other.

Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 23, 2014, 08:02:56 pm
silverspawn was counting letters in C++, this definitely wasn't an accident from him.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 23, 2014, 08:04:33 pm
silverspawn was counting letters in C++, this definitely wasn't an accident from him.

I mean, was anybody under the impression that it was?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 23, 2014, 08:05:22 pm
I thought you meant that when you called it a ridiculous newbie play.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 23, 2014, 08:06:58 pm
This feels like the early teens of mafia games.  There were like two in a row with early VT claims -- one was a VT (Eevee?) and one was mafia.

I don't like the claim.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 23, 2014, 08:07:43 pm
It was PPS.

I don't like the claim either.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 23, 2014, 08:07:59 pm
Quote
I don't like the claim.

I feel deeply sorry for you
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 23, 2014, 08:09:06 pm
while I didn't like the claim I can't imagine SS doing it as a first time scum. I'm guessing this is town silver.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 23, 2014, 08:13:22 pm
So what now?

By claiming, silverspawn has definitely placed himself at the center of attention for today. I just have trouble seeing a town motive for it though.

What was your reason for claiming VT?

I don't think I want to answer that.
Why not? This seems an incredibly odd response if you're really a VT.
It sounds much more like you're lying (as town or scum).

maybe scum thinks so too, i'll be lynched day one, and the NK flies out of the window for a newbie and a VT. profit.
I do not understand this post at all. Why would he be lynched today if scum thinks he is lying?

Oh wait. I see now. So he thinks its good because we'll either lynch him today and only lose a VT. Or scum will NK him because they think he's a lying PR and then we'll also only lose a VT.

But the WIFOM here is insane.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 23, 2014, 08:28:54 pm
<---- Haven't read the setup.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start
Post by: yuma on September 23, 2014, 08:29:01 pm
Vote Count 1.1

Eevee (2): Hydrad, joth
Jimmmm (2): Ichimaru, ADK
Ichimaru (1): Eevee
silverspawn (1): Jimmmmm

Not Voting (5): ashersky, faust, silverspawn, witherweaver, xerxes

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day1 will last 10 days. The deadline for Day1 will be Friday, October 3 at 7 pm forum time.

PS: Flavor will not be spoiler free, but will be kept on the tame side.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 23, 2014, 08:35:14 pm
<---- Haven't read the setup.

Yeah...you should read the setup.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 23, 2014, 08:36:52 pm
Quote
Oh wait. I see now. So he thinks its good because we'll either lynch him today and only lose a VT. Or scum will NK him because they think he's a lying PR and then we'll also only lose a VT.

I didn't say this is the reason. I only said it's something that could happen.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 23, 2014, 09:00:32 pm
One question I have about the setup.

What does the JK mean in the possible roles?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 23, 2014, 09:00:51 pm
oh never mind. I'm guessing thats jailkeeper :/
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 23, 2014, 09:02:51 pm
One question I have about the setup.

What does the JK mean in the possible roles?

Way to claim not-jailkeeper.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 23, 2014, 09:03:02 pm
People need to be careful about this stuff.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 23, 2014, 09:04:13 pm
People need to be careful about this stuff.

this may have been an intentional slip to obscure his role.
Title: Re: Mafia ?? : Silo Mafia - Signups Open - Setup Coming Soon
Post by: ashersky on September 23, 2014, 09:04:39 pm
Here's the important stuff from the setup.


xxxx               Column1         Column2         Column3         Column4         Add-On           
Row1              VT                  Detective         1-shot CommuterGoon Cop         1-shot Investigation Immune/SK
Row2                Watcher            JK                     VT                     Psychologist       2-shot JOAT       
Row3                1-shot Bulletproof Townie VT                     JK                     BodyguardTraitor Knows Mafia         
Row4                 1-shot CommuterPsychologist        Detective            VT                      Mafia Knows Traitor   
Add-On              2-shot JOAT       Mafia Knows Traitor/SKTraitorKnows Mafia/SK1-shot Investigation Immune      xxxxxxx           

To clarify here are the 8 options:

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 23, 2014, 09:04:54 pm
People need to be careful about this stuff.

this may have been an intentional slip to obscure his role.

Then it was clumsily done.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 23, 2014, 09:06:24 pm
Ya ok I think I know everything about the setup now. My bad
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 23, 2014, 09:09:07 pm
So actual add-on list:

1-Shot Investigation Immune
1-Shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
Traitor Knows Mafia
Traitor Knows Mafia + SK
Mafia Knows Traitor
Mafia Knows Traitor + SK
2-Shot JOAT

Looking at that list--I'm not so sure we care about any of them.  Like...I don't care if the mafia and traitor know about each other -- at worst that's like a normal game where all scum know each other, and yet it isn't.  The JOAT is strongish, and we need to keep in mind that results may be wrong based on the Immune thing.  We'll know from nightkills if we have an SK.

Am I missing something on the value of learning which setup we're playing?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 23, 2014, 09:50:02 pm
I thought you meant that when you called it a ridiculous newbie play.

I'm not saying it wasn't intentional or purposeful, just that newbie's sometimes do things that they think are a good idea when they're not.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 24, 2014, 12:18:21 am
I don't like the claim but I don't see scum doing it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on September 24, 2014, 12:53:47 am
On my way home, I'll change my avatar when I'm there.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 24, 2014, 04:33:44 am
Well... I think setup talk has little utility (agree with ash there). Once we have investigative results, we might want to figure out whether scum is investigation-immune... maybe. Not now though.

vote:silverspawn can't explain right now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 24, 2014, 05:03:56 am
I do have to say silverspawn's play reminds my of my own play in Dynasty Warriors. Good times.

Also find everyone stating "I didn't read the setup" suspicious. Man, if you're town, just go read it instead of boasting of your ignorance. And as scum, it's a way to obscure the fact that you have been analyzing the setup all N0.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 09:04:52 am
<---------- Has read the setup.

I would also like to boast of my ignorance of flavor.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 10:35:15 am
now that everyone has expressed his disapproval of my claim, what do we do?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 24, 2014, 10:36:50 am
I have read the setup but don't see a super-obvious way to benefit from claiming, especially since the only protective role is bodyguard.

PPE: move forward and lynch someone I suppose.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 24, 2014, 10:37:06 am
ash you said something about a plan?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 10:38:24 am
Your Clever Little Plan Falls to Pieces
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 10:40:23 am
now that everyone has expressed his disapproval of my claim, what do we do?

Lynch all Ponies!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 10:41:35 am
now that everyone has expressed his disapproval of my claim, what do we do?

Lynch all Ponies!

good thing I'm a vampire bat
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 10:42:02 am
now that everyone has expressed his disapproval of my claim, what do we do?

Lynch all Ponies!

good thing I'm a vampire bat

You dodged the bullet there.

So why did you claim?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 10:42:59 am
Quote from: silverspawn
I don't think I want to answer that
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 10:43:30 am
I think I want you to answer that and that I'm not all that concerned with your feelings :)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 10:44:09 am
I think I want you to answer that and that I'm not all that concerned with your feelings :)

I think it's very believable for scum!you to press the issue.

aren't you scum in most of your games anyway?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 10:44:22 am
I do have to say silverspawn's play reminds my of my own play in Dynasty Warriors. Good times.

Also find everyone stating "I didn't read the setup" suspicious. Man, if you're town, just go read it instead of boasting of your ignorance. And as scum, it's a way to obscure the fact that you have been analyzing the setup all N0.

What happened in Dynasty Warriors?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 10:44:39 am
I think I want you to answer that and that I'm not all that concerned with your feelings :)

I think it's very believable for scum!you to press the issue.

aren't you scum in most of your games anyway?

The times, they are a-changin'
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 10:45:59 am
I think I want you to answer that and that I'm not all that concerned with your feelings :)

I think it's very believable for scum!you to press the issue.

aren't you scum in most of your games anyway?

The times, they are a-changin'

this is clearly an attempt to make me like you more and stop suspecting you.

it's kind of working, but it also makes you scummier.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 10:46:34 am
someone just joined my game. this conversation will have to wait.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 24, 2014, 11:17:17 am
Hey, let's play "Guess which mafia player I am?"

The clue is: "I'm doing something antitown and refusing to divulge my reasons while calling everyone who presses me on the issue scum."
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 11:18:10 am
Hey, let's play "Guess which mafia player I am?"

The clue is: "I'm doing something antitown and refusing to divulge my reasons while calling everyone who presses me on the issue scum."

Ooh! Ooh!  I know!  Ashersky!

Oh, he doesn't do the last part :(
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 11:27:33 am
Hey, let's play "Guess which mafia player I am?"

The clue is: "I'm doing something antitown and refusing to divulge my reasons while calling everyone who presses me on the issue scum."
So I see we agree on silver then.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 24, 2014, 11:29:24 am
I do have to say silverspawn's play reminds my of my own play in Dynasty Warriors. Good times.

Also find everyone stating "I didn't read the setup" suspicious. Man, if you're town, just go read it instead of boasting of your ignorance. And as scum, it's a way to obscure the fact that you have been analyzing the setup all N0.

What happened in Dynasty Warriors?

I was a VT, ash said he was 100% sure I am scum, I fakeclaimed Vengeful and threatened to kill ash... it was all very hilarious, and in the end they lynched me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 24, 2014, 11:31:24 am
Was ash scum?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 11:32:22 am
Was ash scum?
No. He was town.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 24, 2014, 11:34:15 am
Hey, let's play "Guess which mafia player I am?"

The clue is: "I'm doing something antitown and refusing to divulge my reasons while calling everyone who presses me on the issue scum."
So I see we agree on silver then.
Depends! What are you thinking?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 24, 2014, 11:35:40 am
Well IVote: Ichimaru, that's so scummy.
?
It's almost like half "creating suspicion where no suspicion is due" and half "blatant rolefishing".
Where no suspicion is due?

Who claims VT immediately day 1? This is incredibly suspicious behavior. I don't entirely get your comment about it "leading down a dark route", but that doesn't sound as if you approve of it.

PPE: 7

I looked back over people's reactions to silver's claim and Ichi stood out as someone who said/implied that it was scummy but didn't actually vote for silverspawn. So vote: Ichimaru Gin.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 11:40:37 am
Well IVote: Ichimaru, that's so scummy.
?
It's almost like half "creating suspicion where no suspicion is due" and half "blatant rolefishing".
Where no suspicion is due?

Who claims VT immediately day 1? This is incredibly suspicious behavior. I don't entirely get your comment about it "leading down a dark route", but that doesn't sound as if you approve of it.

PPE: 7

I looked back over people's reactions to silver's claim and Ichi stood out as someone who said/implied that it was scummy but didn't actually vote for silverspawn. So vote: Ichimaru Gin.
That's because I was (and am) policy voting Jimmmmm. I just woke up and haven't checked to see if he's changed his avatar yet.

Checking reveals that he has changed his avatar back, so I am free to vote elsewhere now. Didn't you policy vote Jimmmmm as well for the same reason? We're probably in different time zones though, cause when I went to bed, he was still Robz.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 24, 2014, 11:42:02 am
Oh wait, I get it. Silverspawn is the SK, and he wants to avoid being targeted by mafia.

Vote: silverspawn

ppe: that was a joke vote, not a policy vote, and I'm very suspicious that you're actually claiming it as such. But what do you think about my theory on SS?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 24, 2014, 11:42:19 am
So, do you want to vote for silverspawn then, Ichi?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 11:43:33 am
Oh wait, I get it. Silverspawn is the SK, and he wants to avoid being targeted by mafia.

Vote: silverspawn

ppe: that was a joke vote, not a policy vote, and I'm very suspicious that you're actually claiming it as such. But what do you think about my theory on SS?

That actually makes some sense..
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 11:47:14 am
I don't think lynching a Vanilla Townie is going to help us kill scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 24, 2014, 11:48:17 am
Actually unvote. silverspawn is entertaining. I want to see where this goes.

Who else is scummy? Hydrad, I guess. Vote: Hydrad

PPE 5
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 11:48:52 am
Oh wait, I get it. Silverspawn is the SK, and he wants to avoid being targeted by mafia.

Vote: silverspawn

ppe: that was a joke vote, not a policy vote, and I'm very suspicious that you're actually claiming it as such. But what do you think about my theory on SS?
My vote was about as close to a policy vote as I've ever done. It's confusing as heck having a fake Robz running around.

I find your theory on SS highly plausible. It would explain his refusal to give reasoning for his "claim" and him claiming in the first place. He had to have known that he would get heat for it though. The SK win condition seems pretty chancy given that if some mafia die first, they have no chance of winning. So maybe he just decided to have fun with things.

PPE: I am ready to vote for silverspawn. I find this a little odd, since it's like SK hunting--but I think ADK's theory makes the most sense so far.

PPE: more
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 11:50:39 am
I definitely wouldn't do what Silver did as an SK, though.  The only reason I'd buy it at all is because he did something very similar as a Survivor in Bastard Mafia.  It didn't work out to well for him there, though, so I wonder if he'd be bold enough to try something like that in a regular game.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 24, 2014, 11:51:45 am
I do not buy the SK!silverspawn theory. The fact that Ichi finds it "highly plausible" is weird.

Vote: Ichi
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 24, 2014, 11:53:30 am
Silverspawn, how do you feel about Kant's categorical imperative?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 11:54:07 am
I do not buy the SK!silverspawn theory. The fact that Ichi finds it "highly plausible" is weird.

Vote: Ichi
Then what do you think the explanation is?
And why are you voting me when I wasn't even the one that proposed the theory? (Which I still stand by)

I can't stand all these poor votes against me. I can't even argue against such bad reasons.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 24, 2014, 11:55:27 am
You don't seem to be thinking about silverspawn's potential reasons for his play very thoroughly.

Is your theory that he thought he could just get away with it no questions asked, and when he we asked for reasons he panicked and couldn't think of anything but "nope, not telling you!"?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 11:55:39 am
I do not buy the SK!silverspawn theory. The fact that Ichi finds it "highly plausible" is weird.

Vote: Ichi
Then what do you think the explanation is?
And why are you voting me when I wasn't even the one that proposed the theory? (Which I still stand by)

I can't stand all these poor votes against me. I can't even argue against such bad reasons.

That should be obvious.. sheeping someone else's argument is standard scum; you're less accountable and less in the spotlight than the person that proposed it in the first place.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 24, 2014, 11:56:13 am
Silverspawn, how do you feel about Kant's categorical imperative?

Kant has it all wrong! *sorryiknowimnotsilverspawn*
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 11:56:38 am
And what are "all these" poor votes against you?  I only remember two, and they're both justified.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 11:57:47 am
I do not buy the SK!silverspawn theory. The fact that Ichi finds it "highly plausible" is weird.

Vote: Ichi
Then what do you think the explanation is?
And why are you voting me when I wasn't even the one that proposed the theory? (Which I still stand by)

I can't stand all these poor votes against me. I can't even argue against such bad reasons.

That should be obvious.. sheeping someone else's argument is standard scum; you're less accountable and less in the spotlight than the person that proposed it in the first place.
I am not sheeping his argument.

He asked me what I thought of it!!


See, you're just proving my point. So now I'm scummy because someone asked me a simple question, and I answered it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 24, 2014, 11:57:59 am
I do not buy the SK!silverspawn theory. The fact that Ichi finds it "highly plausible" is weird.

Vote: Ichi
Then what do you think the explanation is?
And why are you voting me when I wasn't even the one that proposed the theory? (Which I still stand by)

I can't stand all these poor votes against me. I can't even argue against such bad reasons.

I do not think discussing that kind of stuff would be good.

I'm voting you because you're sheeping a particularly weakly-reasoned case, and are SK hunting.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 24, 2014, 11:58:24 am
Actually unvote. silverspawn is entertaining. I want to see where this goes.

Who else is scummy? Hydrad, I guess. Vote: Hydrad

PPE 5

What? Why?

I do not buy the SK!silverspawn theory. The fact that Ichi finds it "highly plausible" is weird.

Vote: Ichi

But I'm not scummy for proposing it?

Silverspawn, how do you feel about Kant's categorical imperative?

+1

You don't seem to be thinking about silverspawn's potential reasons for his play very thoroughly.

Is your theory that he thought he could just get away with it no questions asked, and when he we asked for reasons he panicked and couldn't think of anything but "nope, not telling you!"?

Either that, or it was an all-or-nothing play. He would attract attention, but might be able to get away with "too erratic to be scum", then be scott-free the rest of the game. Which isn't necessarily good from someone who has team members to help them out, but if you're a SK you might want to take the longshot anyway.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 11:59:26 am
I do not buy the SK!silverspawn theory. The fact that Ichi finds it "highly plausible" is weird.

Vote: Ichi
Then what do you think the explanation is?
And why are you voting me when I wasn't even the one that proposed the theory? (Which I still stand by)

I can't stand all these poor votes against me. I can't even argue against such bad reasons.

I do not think discussing that kind of stuff would be good.

I'm voting you because you're sheeping a particularly weakly-reasoned case, and are SK hunting.
omfg I hope this is a joke. Or you obviously did not read my last post.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 12:01:06 pm
I do not think discussing that kind of stuff would be good.
In other words you're refusing to answer a perfectly good question. And remaining slippery with no opinions of your own, just attacking me to draw attention away from yourself.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 12:01:36 pm
Vote: Ichimaru for being even more over-the-top defensive than usual.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 12:02:08 pm
Vote: Ichimaru for being even more over-the-top defensive than usual.

Could
you
please
just
read
what
I
said?
And think about it?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 12:03:04 pm
Yes, that's the point of me voting for you.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 12:07:14 pm
Silverspawn, how do you feel about Kant's categorical imperative?

I think every ethical norm except for classical utilitarianism is either wrong or a logical consequence from it. though the categorical imperative is particularly stupid.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 12:08:23 pm
vote: Ichimaru Gin
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 12:09:00 pm
Yes, that's the point of me voting for you.
So the fact that ADK asked me what I thought of his case and I answered his question has no meaning to you whatsoever? I am not even voting silverspawn, as everyone is trying to pressure me to do, so the term "sheeping" is even more incorrect.

Ok. Well I guess there's no point in me responding to any more accusation against me, since no one actually reads anything--or if they do, they forget it the next instant.

Where's Volt when I need him?

PPE:  :P
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 12:12:23 pm
Yes, that's the point of me voting for you.
So the fact that ADK asked me what I thought of his case and I answered his question has no meaning to you whatsoever? I am not even voting silverspawn, as everyone is trying to pressure me to do, so the term "sheeping" is even more incorrect.

Ok. Well I guess there's no point in me responding to any more accusation against me, since no one actually reads anything--or if they do, they forget it the next instant.

Where's Volt when I need him?

PPE:  :P

Faust's case is not that you answered a question, but how you answered it.  Eevee's case was that you were laying some groundwork to vote for Silverspawn later; like, if it became later in the day and a (mis, from this perspective) lynch needed to go through.

If you're going to claim that other people don't read your posts, you should take some amount of effort in reading other people's post.

My case is that being indignant and defensive is VERY easy to replicated, and it's your town meta, and this is the most ridiculous case of defensiveness I've seen so far.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 12:13:26 pm
And I don't know what Silverspawn's case is.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 12:18:05 pm
How many votes is that one me?

I am certain there is at least one scum, maybe more on my wagon. I could easily faust trying to emulate his town meta of fighting with me here. And WW's case on me is just garbage. Silver is obviously trying to distract from himself. The fact that he doesn't post any reason for voting me doesn't even bother me, since it's just the same as everyone else.

PPE: I don't think I've ever had this amount of bad votes on me this early. It's insane. I'm not going to argue my meta with you, but I hope you can see that at least some of the votes on me are blatantly opportunistic.

And look, I know it makes it hard because scum jumping on my wagon has excuses because of my defensiveness. But still, I thought you would have known me better by now.

PPE: yeah. I'm ready to lynch silver now--and surprised no one's made a partner case yet.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 12:19:02 pm
Well, I could easily see Faust as your partner.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 12:20:21 pm
Silver's vote could be opportunistic, Eevee's was certainly not.  Mine obviously not.  Faust maybe.

Anyway, stop saying the votes on you are garbage.  They aren't. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 12:23:15 pm
my play is obviously opportunistic town lynching. it's clear that scum!me would use this completely non-suspicious way to get a lynch done. this brilliant plan has almost one percent chance of success.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 12:24:18 pm
Silver's vote could be opportunistic, Eevee's was certainly not.  Mine obviously not.  Faust maybe.

Anyway, stop saying the votes on you are garbage.  They aren't.
I meant to edit that last part out (only in reference to your case, some other votes are obviously bad).

And as to faust. I'm not sure. I felt very, very confident he was scum in Dice Mafia. And I still maintain that he acted scummy in that game. We fought an incredible amount there though and were both town. Not sure that's the case here though, as I feel he's perfectly capable of emulating his town self attacking me--and it would be an easy path to take.

PPE: great. Silver has spilled everything, let's lynch him now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 12:27:52 pm
Ichi is in a bad spot here. Things are just not going his way. And it started so nice, someone else did something crazy, and noone had a reason to talk about him. And now suddenly he is the center of attention.

Ichi, you're trying to hard to not take the case against you seriously, while at the same time taking it in fact very seriously, and trying hard to defend yourself. Pressing the case against me could have worked, but not anymore. You played yourself into a corner.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 12:35:36 pm
Ichi is in a bad spot here. Things are just not going his way. And it started so nice, someone else did something crazy, and noone had a reason to talk about him. And now suddenly he is the center of attention.

Ichi, you're trying to hard to not take the case against you seriously, while at the same time taking it in fact very seriously, and trying hard to defend yourself. Pressing the case against me could have worked, but not anymore. You played yourself into a corner.
I've been in this spot before (many times actually). I hope my sarcasm came through, but maybe not cause internet and all.

Once again, my defensiveness against original terrible cases on me snowballs and people vote me for defending myself. I have never been mislynched before though--and feel confident that is a record I can keep.

Anyone who has played with me before (barring ongoing games) should know that this is just how I am and it should be a null tell.

I could just sit by while terrible cases are made against me and receive approval, but I can't. I'm sure you're very happy that I've managed to distract from the bomb you dropped first thing, but no one's forgotten it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 24, 2014, 12:40:16 pm
Vote: Ichimaru for being even more over-the-top defensive than usual.

vote: ichimaru
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 12:41:11 pm
Ok. Well when I flip 5 minutes into D1, remember who was on my wagon--and who blatantly sheeped others and got away with it, and who voted without giving any reasons.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 24, 2014, 12:41:40 pm
What's the votes at?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 12:42:42 pm
joth just derphammered me.

Remember who was on my wagon!!!

I can't believe this.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 24, 2014, 12:43:57 pm
Also i will say that I'm not going to vote ichi. This defense seems almost the same in dice mafia when he was suspected day 1 as town there too.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 24, 2014, 12:44:07 pm
Wait what?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 12:44:25 pm
This is what happens when everyone votes without thinking.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 12:44:39 pm
Also i will say that I'm not going to vote ichi. This defense seems almost the same in dice mafia when he was suspected day 1 as town there too.

Feels constructed to me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 12:44:59 pm
Also i will say that I'm not going to vote ichi. This defense seems almost the same in dice mafia when he was suspected day 1 as town there too.

Feels constructed to me.
I'm dead!!!

It doesn't matter.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 12:45:36 pm
So you can tell us what you'll flip then?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 24, 2014, 12:46:27 pm
Joth did you mean to hammer him?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 12:46:44 pm
So you can tell us what you'll flip then?
Is this a joke?

I can't believe you're taking me this lightly. Screw all of you people for killing me for no reason.

This has got to be some sort of record.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 12:47:34 pm
Wasn't a joke.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 12:51:42 pm
You're also at like L-2, so you can go ahead and calm down.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 12:52:09 pm
And, played around with that being a ruse, but I'm not so sure about it. 

Unvote
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 12:52:32 pm
Wasn't a joke.
I am not telling you anything.

Please kill WW after my flip everyone.

PPE: What? You knew that and were trying to get me to claim?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 12:53:42 pm
Or maybe L-1.  Unless you're Hated?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 12:53:48 pm
I think you had 5 votes. you need 6 to be lynched.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 24, 2014, 12:54:20 pm
Are you sure I just recounted on my phone and thought I counted 6 votes
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 12:54:32 pm
Wasn't a joke.
I am not telling you anything.

Please kill WW after my flip everyone.

PPE: What? You knew that and were trying to get me to claim?

Was trying to test if you really thought you were hammered and, if you were, if you were trying to throw a bunch of confusion around.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 12:54:55 pm
Faust voted Hydrad.  Also, Eevee's was out-of-syntax.  Not sure if it even counts.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 12:55:31 pm
faust, WW, Eevee, Joth, and me were voting for you. that's 5.

Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 24, 2014, 12:55:39 pm
Faust voted Hydrad.  Also, Eevee's was out-of-syntax.  Not sure if it even counts.

Eevee was in the vote count. Ad Faust voted ichi after votin me I think
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 24, 2014, 12:56:37 pm
I had no idea that was L1. No one announced it! wait was that the hammer?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 12:56:45 pm
Hm, you could be right.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 24, 2014, 12:57:03 pm
Adk is voting ichi also i think
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 12:58:16 pm
ADK is not voting for ichi.

Ichi was not hammered.

I didn't put him on L-1.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 24, 2014, 12:58:45 pm
No, I switched to silverspawn

ppe: yeah that. But ichi is at L-1.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 12:59:13 pm
I had no idea that was L1. No one announced it! wait was that the hammer?
I'm not sure now. I counted 6 votes and was almost positive no one unvoted me or changed.

It's understandable given that no one announced anything and just kept foolishly voting me in single posts. Less scum on you and more on silver, WW, and faust.

PPE: Yeah. Looks like I was right and I am hammered.

L-1 now that WW unvoted?
That means I was hammered.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 12:59:27 pm
So Joth was L-1?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 24, 2014, 12:59:47 pm
unvote but I reserve the right to re-vote. I'm at a work thing and sort of just skimming the thread, so maybe voting there wasn't the hottest idea ever.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 01:00:42 pm
I had no idea that was L1. No one announced it! wait was that the hammer?
I'm not sure now. I counted 6 votes and was almost positive no one unvoted me or changed.

It's understandable given that no one announced anything and just kept foolishly voting me in single posts. Less scum on you and more on silver, WW, and faust.

PPE: Yeah. Looks like I was right and I am hammered.

L-1 now that WW unvoted?
That means I was hammered.
faust, WW, Eevee, Joth, and me. that's five. who else did you vote?

ADK didn't vote. he quoted a vote from someone else.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 01:01:32 pm
Pretty sure Joth put you to L-1, and you thought it was the hammer.  I unvoted putting you at L-2, Joth unvoted so you have three votes: Eevee, Faust, and Silverspawn.

PPE: ADK voted for Ichi early on (I missed it), but then changed to Silver.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 01:02:00 pm
I looked back over people's reactions to silver's claim and Ichi stood out as someone who said/implied that it was scummy but didn't actually vote for silverspawn. So vote: Ichimaru Gin.

PPE: so ADK changed to silver?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 01:02:14 pm
In this post:

Well IVote: Ichimaru, that's so scummy.
?
It's almost like half "creating suspicion where no suspicion is due" and half "blatant rolefishing".
Where no suspicion is due?

Who claims VT immediately day 1? This is incredibly suspicious behavior. I don't entirely get your comment about it "leading down a dark route", but that doesn't sound as if you approve of it.

PPE: 7

I looked back over people's reactions to silver's claim and Ichi stood out as someone who said/implied that it was scummy but didn't actually vote for silverspawn. So vote: Ichimaru Gin.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 24, 2014, 01:02:21 pm
You weren't hammered. Joth put you at L-1 but didn't realize it and didn't announce. You still have silverspawn, eevee, and faust voting for you.

ppe: all that.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 01:02:29 pm
Then shortly after:

Oh wait, I get it. Silverspawn is the SK, and he wants to avoid being targeted by mafia.

Vote: silverspawn

ppe: that was a joke vote, not a policy vote, and I'm very suspicious that you're actually claiming it as such. But what do you think about my theory on SS?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 01:03:01 pm
I missed one vote, ADK did vote for joth, but he changed it to me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 24, 2014, 01:03:57 pm
Well that was a small roller coaster of emotions. I think we should be more careful about our votes though.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 24, 2014, 01:04:43 pm
I'm a little tempted to switch back to Ichi, the whole "I've never been mislynched!" thing is something he pulled as scum in stack the deck. I want to wait for people who missed this hot mess to chime in, though.

PPE: silver I assume you mean Ichi, not joth. Is joth your scumpartner?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 01:05:09 pm
Ok. So I'm still alive.

I hope everyone learned a lesson today.

WW, did you know how many votes were really on me when you asked me to claim?

PPE: a bunch
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 01:05:42 pm
I'm a little tempted to switch back to Ichi, the whole "I've never been mislynched!" thing is something he pulled as scum in stack the deck. I want to wait for people who missed this hot mess to chime in, though.

PPE: silver I assume you mean Ichi, not joth. Is joth your scumpartner?

*Ichi

Vanilla Townies do not have scum partners.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 01:06:15 pm
I'm a little tempted to switch back to Ichi, the whole "I've never been mislynched!" thing is something he pulled as scum in stack the deck. I want to wait for people who missed this hot mess to chime in, though.

PPE: silver I assume you mean Ichi, not joth. Is joth your scumpartner?

*Ichi

Vanilla Townies do not have scum partners.
Neither do SK's
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 01:07:30 pm
Quote
I hope everyone learned a lesson today.
Just because Joth didn't derphammer you, doesn't mean you're not in trouble. Everything that applied before his accidental (?) L-1 still applies now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 01:08:33 pm
Ok. So I'm still alive.

I hope everyone learned a lesson today.

WW, did you know how many votes were really on me when you asked me to claim?

PPE: a bunch

Yes, but for the wrong reasons.  I thought ADK never voted for you and that Faust didn't revote for you.  Turns out that ADK did vote, but changed, and Faust went back to you, so I was off by one.

I really wanted you to say the words "I am flipping town" or something to that effect, though.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 01:09:34 pm
I believe that Ichi thought he was dead. His reaction makes him scummier than he was before.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 24, 2014, 01:10:22 pm
Yeah, nothing about Ichi's reaction to believing he was lynched screamed town to me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 01:10:49 pm
Wasn't a joke.
I am not telling you anything.

Please kill WW after my flip everyone.

PPE: What? You knew that and were trying to get me to claim?

The "I'm not telling you anything" is confusing to me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 01:11:32 pm
Quote
I hope everyone learned a lesson today.
Just because Joth didn't derphammer you, doesn't mean you're not in trouble. Everything that applied before his accidental (?) L-1 still applies now.
Ooh. SK silver playing town.

I don't care if you guys kill me now. You basically already did.

PPE: silver PR hunting.

Ok. I'm just glad that WW didn't extract any information from me. I'm amazed that he admitted to forcing my claim even though I wasn't hammered.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 01:11:51 pm
Ok. Well when I flip 5 minutes into D1, remember who was on my wagon--and who blatantly sheeped others and got away with it, and who voted without giving any reasons.

This confuses me, too.. right after he thought Joth hammered him.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 01:12:43 pm
Quote
I hope everyone learned a lesson today.
Just because Joth didn't derphammer you, doesn't mean you're not in trouble. Everything that applied before his accidental (?) L-1 still applies now.
Ooh. SK silver playing town.

I don't care if you guys kill me now. You basically already did.

PPE: silver PR hunting.

Ok. I'm just glad that WW didn't extract any information from me. I'm amazed that he admitted to forcing my claim even though I wasn't hammered.

What's amazing about that at all?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 01:13:17 pm
Quote
I don't care if you guys kill me now.
I don't believe you. I don't think anyone does.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 01:13:58 pm
Ok. Well when I flip 5 minutes into D1, remember who was on my wagon--and who blatantly sheeped others and got away with it, and who voted without giving any reasons.

This confuses me, too.. right after he thought Joth hammered him.
What's confusing about it?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 01:14:06 pm
Quote
I hope everyone learned a lesson today.
Just because Joth didn't derphammer you, doesn't mean you're not in trouble. Everything that applied before his accidental (?) L-1 still applies now.
Ooh. SK silver playing town.

I don't care if you guys kill me now. You basically already did.

PPE: silver PR hunting.

Ok. I'm just glad that WW didn't extract any information from me. I'm amazed that he admitted to forcing my claim even though I wasn't hammered.

What's amazing about that at all?
You taking advantage of my thinking I was hammered to try and PR hunt.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 24, 2014, 01:14:28 pm
"Please kill WW after I am dead", without any sort of "well you guys lynched town, good job", especially when WW wasn't the one who hammered you, looks a lot like scum trying to sow confusion.

Vote: Ichimaru

This is L-2.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 01:14:53 pm
It doesn't sound all that much like someone getting mislynched.  Or even someone that thought he was hammered.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 01:19:20 pm
"Please kill WW after I am dead", without any sort of "well you guys lynched town, good job", especially when WW wasn't the one who hammered you, looks a lot like scum trying to sow confusion.

Vote: Ichimaru

This is L-2.
At this point, I don't think you care what I would have said--you would have found a way to make it scummy.

The one time I did flip scum, I tried to convince town that they'd lost the game. If you really think I'm scum, I'm incredulous that you think I wouldn't mess with town by claiming I was town as I went down. So that makes no sense at all.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 01:25:43 pm
Ok. I'll be gone for a while.

I doubt there's anything I could say now that people couldn't put a spin on. Please look back at my previous games if you care.
Looking at things objectively, my situation might improve if I'm gone and don't have a chance to defend myself.

I will not be claiming anything today, but I'm sure you would have lynched me in my absence anyway.

If I do survive (or I'm killed), I think I'll have learned something about my defensiveness.

That is all.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 01:28:44 pm
We are not lynching you while you are gone.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 24, 2014, 01:55:38 pm
Wow. Craziness. See no reason to move my vote for now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 24, 2014, 02:02:16 pm
I really think scum claims here though, right? That's the only thing that's giving me pause.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 24, 2014, 02:50:46 pm
But a town PR absolutely claims somewhere in that mess. And I think it's past the point where a claim would be all that plausible.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 24, 2014, 03:01:11 pm
Wow..

Well, this game got a fast start, that's for sure.

I guess Ichi's flip will be quite information for us now, if not anything else. I do share joth's concerns about the lack of claim though.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 03:03:45 pm
I really think scum claims here though, right? That's the only thing that's giving me pause.
Well apparently town claims town here and that would have convinced ADK not to vote for me again.
[/end sarcasm]

Some thoughts.

1. I understand that many people view my defensiveness as scummy behavior. From my point of view, when I'm town, and I see what I perceive as poor votes on me, I am very reactive to them. I feel that scum is trying to cast suspicion on me and without my intervention will be picked up by others even when it has no basis at all--and this has happened in the past. Unfortunately, in my attempts to counter the numerous unexplained, unwarranted votes on me, it convinces other people that I am scum. Even more so, my reactive posts actually distract from the points that I am trying to make and the players I believe to be scum, furthering my annoyance.

2. I must admit that I am very displeased at the light attitude that many people seem to express in regards to my near mislynch. This has less to do with me, and more to do with others' irresponsibility by not warning for L-1, L-2 etc. And also not checking where things are before voting. These are very bad habits as they act as excuses to allay responsibility, and in later days chances for scum to quickhammer.

3. In regards to me claiming, I was suspicious when WW pressed me to claim--and since there was no vote count to refer to, I was aware that my conclusion that I had been lynched might be incorrect. As such, I refused to claim. Arguments surrounding what town/scum would have done are mostly worthless in my opinion. At that time, I was incredulous that town had botched things so badly and (I thought) hammered me so early on in D1. Starting D2 with 2 townies dead and virtually no information regarding the lynch is pretty bad. So I hope that people understand why I have been harping so much about people voting me without any reasoning. If you are determined to mislynch me, I at least want town to get information out of it.

4. At this point, I am incredibly suspicious of ADK and silver in particular. I know that I have largely distracted from silver's claim, but it is something that I would like to discuss more. In regards to ADK, his "cases" against me are nothing more than ill-disguised wagon jumping. In particular, his assertion that my claiming town would have changed his read on me is ludicrously illogical. Scum!anyone never claims scum, even at the end, so saying that would have made me townier is simply insane.

PPE: Eevee have I actually been lynched, or have you missed some of the thread?
How ironic that you thought it would give you any information, since so much of it was sheeped.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 24, 2014, 03:13:10 pm
The whole point of my case (besides your earlier reaction to silverspawn's claim which I still think is kind of scummy btw) is that I don't think that your reaction to "being lynched" was towny. Your posts looked to me like you were scum upset that you got lynched so early, and singling out WW as the person to lynch after looked like you were trying to introduce WIFOM. And assuming that people trying to get you lynched must be scum is pretty naive, what about your play makes you think that it's so obviously towny?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 03:19:01 pm
The whole point of my case (besides your earlier reaction to silverspawn's claim which I still think is kind of scummy btw) is that I don't think that your reaction to "being lynched" was towny. Your posts looked to me like you were scum upset that you got lynched so early, and singling out WW as the person to lynch after looked like you were trying to introduce WIFOM. And assuming that people trying to get you lynched must be scum is pretty naive, what about your play makes you think that it's so obviously towny?
How is people making single posts voting for me with no explanation townie?

Really? You don't know I'm town, but I do. From that perspective I am almost 100% certain there is scum on my wagon. You are conveniently avoiding the suspicion regarding just how quickly my wagon grew, with a large percentage of votes being unexplained or blatant sheeping of others.

Since it seems like you've already made up your mind about me, maybe I'm wasting my breath here. But please just think about what I'm saying instead of more "you're scum!"
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 03:19:37 pm
I really think scum claims here though, right? That's the only thing that's giving me pause.
Well apparently town claims town here and that would have convinced ADK not to vote for me again.
[/end sarcasm]

Some thoughts.

1. I understand that many people view my defensiveness as scummy behavior. From my point of view, when I'm town, and I see what I perceive as poor votes on me, I am very reactive to them. I feel that scum is trying to cast suspicion on me and without my intervention will be picked up by others even when it has no basis at all--and this has happened in the past. Unfortunately, in my attempts to counter the numerous unexplained, unwarranted votes on me, it convinces other people that I am scum. Even more so, my reactive posts actually distract from the points that I am trying to make and the players I believe to be scum, furthering my annoyance.

This is obviously poor reasoning, as on average more town are going to vote against you than scum.  Moreover, there were not numerous unexplained and unwarranted votes.  When you started freaking out, you had two votes on you: Eevee and Faust.  Both were explained and reasonable.  ADK's wasn't unwarranted either, but regardless he changed his vote right away.

Also realize, even if you are scum and you feel the case against you is bad, and that people are voting for you for bad or unexplained reasons, then you're going to get upset and react strongly as well.  So it's not like there's only a town motivation for your reactions.

Quote
2. I must admit that I am very displeased at the light attitude that many people seem to express in regards to my near mislynch. This has less to do with me, and more to do with others' irresponsibility by not warning for L-1, L-2 etc. And also not checking where things are before voting. These are very bad habits as they act as excuses to allay responsibility, and in later days chances for scum to quickhammer.


3. In regards to me claiming, I was suspicious when WW pressed me to claim--and since there was no vote count to refer to, I was aware that my conclusion that I had been lynched might be incorrect. As such, I refused to claim. Arguments surrounding what town/scum would have done are mostly worthless in my opinion. At that time, I was incredulous that town had botched things so badly and (I thought) hammered me so early on in D1. Starting D2 with 2 townies dead and virtually no information regarding the lynch is pretty bad. So I hope that people understand why I have been harping so much about people voting me without any reasoning. If you are determined to mislynch me, I at least want town to get information out of it.

You were entirely convinced you were mislynched, or you were faking.  It can't be both.  I'm suspicious that you were suspicious.

Quote
4. At this point, I am incredibly suspicious of ADK and silver in particular. I know that I have largely distracted from silver's claim, but it is something that I would like to discuss more. In regards to ADK, his "cases" against me are nothing more than ill-disguised wagon jumping. In particular, his assertion that my claiming town would have changed his read on me is ludicrously illogical. Scum!anyone never claims scum, even at the end, so saying that would have made me townier is simply insane.

The ADK thing is possible.  To the last point, town getting mislynched here with a PR would say something like "well grats you just lynched your cop".  (See Sudgy in whatever game that was.)

PPEs
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 03:20:48 pm
The whole point of my case (besides your earlier reaction to silverspawn's claim which I still think is kind of scummy btw) is that I don't think that your reaction to "being lynched" was towny. Your posts looked to me like you were scum upset that you got lynched so early, and singling out WW as the person to lynch after looked like you were trying to introduce WIFOM. And assuming that people trying to get you lynched must be scum is pretty naive, what about your play makes you think that it's so obviously towny?

What does this make you think about my alignment?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 03:22:13 pm
I have to go to class, and I want to give WW's response the time it deserves. I will be back in a few hours.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 03:24:02 pm
But please see silver's and joth's votes for examples of what I'm talking about.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 03:32:44 pm
And the main thing, in a broader context than this game: a case being ultimately correct or incorrect is not the same as it being good or bad.  "Correct" or "Incorrect" is whether they flip scum or town, but good or bad is the actual reasoning behind thinking what you're thinking, with the information you have available to you at the time.

I can, say, be a vig, randomly target someone, and hit scum and feel great about it, but my "argument" (in this case, choosing randomly) was obviously terrible.  Less extremely, I can make a bad argument against scum and just be lucky.  I can also make a good argument against town as town, or a good argument against town as scum. 

Or as a general example, most, if not all, Day 1 cases are bad.  But we still hit scum Day 1.

Voting for people is how the game is played, and in a lot of cases as town you're going to vote against other town players.  This is actually a good thing, because it can lead to more information to let you (and the other players) know if they really are scum or are actually town. 

And being "caught for the wrong reasons" is definitely a thing.  I feel it as scum when I get suspected for things that I didn't think warranted suspicion. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 03:34:23 pm
But please see silver's and joth's votes for examples of what I'm talking about.

Those votes weren't there at the time you were acting indignant.  Also, Joth was quite clearly sheeping me, as he quoted my vote against you, which contained my reasons.  So, it was sheeped, but not unexplained.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 24, 2014, 03:39:34 pm
@WW: I mean, if Ichi flips scum, then that probably indicates that you're town (or at least not on Ichi's team). I think that if Ichi is scum, then his "please kill WW" comment was a last-ditch attempt to introduce some WIFOM regarding your alignment.

@Ichi: I don't really feel anyone voted for you for "no reason", and I'm not very strongly towny toward everyone who voted for you. But you seemed to be implying that people voting for you was implicitly scummy, and that's just not true.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 03:40:30 pm
unvote

I think it's important to consider the context of IG's posts. We were putting him under a lot of pressure, and he reacted in a certain way. A lot of people believe it's scummy. Still under pressure, he has made responses, and some people found those scummy.

After it was clear that he wasn't going to die right away, he's had time to breath. Relax, and think about what he wants to do next. His current defense should not be given the same weight as his prior posts, because it was something he had time to write and think about. Both scum!IG and town!IG could write such a post. Really, if you want to judge him, focus on his earlier posts. What he is writing now is nullish.

We have a lot of time left. Everyone should, at some point, reread the pressure phase and make a judgement. But for now, I don't see us getting anything useful out of him.

PPE 3
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 03:43:06 pm
I was really hoping to get something more definitive from the time where he actually thought he was hammered.  I probably broke the truth too soon.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 24, 2014, 03:45:00 pm
unvote

I think it's important to consider the context of IG's posts. We were putting him under a lot of pressure, and he reacted in a certain way. A lot of people believe it's scummy. Still under pressure, he has made responses, and some people found those scummy.

After it was clear that he wasn't going to die right away, he's had time to breath. Relax, and think about what he wants to do next. His current defense should not be given the same weight as his prior posts, because it was something he had time to write and think about. Both scum!IG and town!IG could write such a post. Really, if you want to judge him, focus on his earlier posts. What he is writing now is nullish.

We have a lot of time left. Everyone should, at some point, reread the pressure phase and make a judgement. But for now, I don't see us getting anything useful out of him.

PPE 3

So why are you unvoting?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 03:48:13 pm
I did not know that I put him on L-2. I spend about 3 seconds thinking, "should I count his posts?" and decided "no, I'm pretty sure it's not that close. If one more person had voted before me, I'm pretty sure I'd have checked it. Even though joth had one more post before him, I think it's believable that he didn't realize he was putting him at L-1.

What I'm getting at is, when he said he was lynched, I didn't know it wasn't true. I went back and counted, and I told him that he was still alive without thinking. The smarter thing would have been to pretend as though he was just hammered. So, we both made this mistake.

PPE 1
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 24, 2014, 03:49:14 pm
PPE: Eevee have I actually been lynched, or have you missed some of the thread?
How ironic that you thought it would give you any information, since so much of it was sheeped.
No, but when you flip, it will be informational. :) Sheeping doesn't take away the information value, not at all. People took strong stances on you early, that's information.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 03:51:37 pm
Quote
So why are you unvoting?

If you reread my posts, you'll see that I never actually said I thought he was scummy, although I of course made it sound like it. I voted for him with no explanation at all, and the only goal was to produce reactions under heavy pressure. We got a lot of that, way more than I expected. But now he's going to be afk for several hours, and he's going to come back to the game with a completely different mindset.

tl;dr the reason for my vote no longer applies, so I'll remove it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 24, 2014, 03:53:14 pm
Quote
So why are you unvoting?

If you reread my posts, you'll see that I never actually said I thought he was scummy, although I of course made it sound like it. I voted for him with no explanation at all, and the only goal was to produce reactions under heavy pressure. We got a lot of that, way more than I expected. But now he's going to be afk for several hours, and he's going to come back to the game with a completely different mindset.

tl;dr the reason for my vote no longer applies, so I'll remove it.

But does a different reason justify a vote?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 24, 2014, 03:55:04 pm
By the way, I think this was a good way for this game to start. I think we'll be able to make meaningful reads day 1, and get stuff out of rereads later because people are at least taking stances here.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 03:57:00 pm
Quote
But does a different reason justify a vote?
One of my first posts in this game stated that I plan to play very differently. A part of that is that I'm not going to share all of my thoughts as openly as I have in previous games.

So, I can't answer that.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 24, 2014, 05:40:35 pm
2. I must admit that I am very displeased at the light attitude that many people seem to express in regards to my near mislynch. This has less to do with me, and more to do with others' irresponsibility by not warning for L-1, L-2 etc. And also not checking where things are before voting. These are very bad habits as they act as excuses to allay responsibility, and in later days chances for scum to quickhammer.

to quote ... pops maybe? Ozle? I actually think the derphammer is a fine and useful tool for town. I think that if town is super cautious to not end the day until everyone's weighed in, everyone's had their say, as is our wont, that's really good for scum. If gives them every chance to weasel out of it. Look at my lynch in James Bond! if my freaking partners had been online, I could have weaseled out of the lynch because everyone was being so cautious.

Now later in the game, when our lynches are do or die, we absolutely slow down and think about everything. But day 1? If my vote had actually been the hammer, I think there's a very good chance that it would have hit scum. And even if it hadn't, I would have felt fine about it. I would obviously have been disappointed to mislynch town and more than a little worried about everyone thinking I was quickhammering scum, but I would not have considered myself to have misplayed.

All this is to say, nothing Ichimaru has done has given me any more reason to suspect he's town and I'm very happy to reinstitute my vote once everyone feels like they've had their say.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 24, 2014, 05:49:03 pm
It was O. I miss O!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 24, 2014, 05:50:50 pm
Joth, I agree to an extent, but what if Ichi had been a powerful role? There are valid reasons for not hammering people without giving them a change to comment.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 24, 2014, 05:56:03 pm
Ichi, it's a bit problematic your reads seem all over the place. It kills some of your credibility you call everyone who suspects you obvious scum that. Just try to see it this way: More people voted for you than there are scum. Some of them are town. Try to address your points to them.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 06:08:02 pm
Joth, I agree to an extent, but what if Ichi had been a powerful role? There are valid reasons for not hammering people without giving them a change to comment.

I disagree completely with joth.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 24, 2014, 06:15:08 pm
I agree with "sometimes you just got to go for it". I disagree with this being one of those times, or it ever being ok not to make sure you aren't accidentally hammering before voting.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 24, 2014, 06:22:09 pm
That was a lot overnight.

I'd say that I actually got a bit of a towny read on Ichi's reaction, but then that's tempered by the points being made.  I'd be angry if I thought I was lynched in that manner, too.

He's definitely in the lynch pool, but we do have time to continue discussing stuff.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 24, 2014, 06:22:39 pm
I will say, there were a few instances of SK hunting, which is uber scummy.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 24, 2014, 06:24:10 pm
One thing to think about/discuss: the traitor mechanic.

So, with a split faction guaranteed, even if one side has knowledge, the other doesn't.  Generally speaking (as I've played/modded multiple), I think the single scum that doesn't know his partners is the more dangerous of the group -- he's usually going to be a bit on the scummier side (to try to not get NKed) and may actually reverse scumhunt.

I actually think Traitor hunting is a thing.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 24, 2014, 06:26:28 pm
For the traitor I thought scum would try to hit them so that they are on a team? Or is that not powerful enough to lose a night kill I guess.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 24, 2014, 06:42:27 pm
For the traitor I thought scum would try to hit them so that they are on a team? Or is that not powerful enough to lose a night kill I guess.

I'd say getting kills through is more important.

I think the best example ever of a traitor was yuma in RMM5.  I was scum there (my first scum win and MVP, I think), and so was he.  But we didn't know he existed, at all.  He claimed scum at some point, really caused a lot of havok.  It was awesome.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 07:55:17 pm
I will say, there were a few instances of SK hunting, which is uber scummy.
Note that ADK was the one SK hunting and I even noted that. Right here.

I find this a little odd, since it's like SK hunting--but I think ADK's theory makes the most sense so far.

Joth, I agree to an extent, but what if Ichi had been a powerful role? There are valid reasons for not hammering people without giving them a change to comment.

I disagree completely with joth.
I too completely disagree with joth saying that derphammers or hammering someone when 2 players haven't even posted is a good idea. And I find his play so far to be quite scummy. Like why even try to argue that, all it does is give scum a free pass.

Ichi, it's a bit problematic your reads seem all over the place. It kills some of your credibility you call everyone who suspects you obvious scum that. Just try to see it this way: More people voted for you than there are scum. Some of them are town. Try to address your points to them.

No you're right. And this was something that I was considering during my absence. I still maintain that some people on my wagon joined in incredibly scummy ways, but of course some people on my wagon are town. So in terms of my defensive meta or whatever, it's obviously not good that town is voting me--because if they have legitimate reason to, then that means scum has an easier time of mislynching me and getting away with it because "he was so scummy".

If I were to focus on who I find scummiest right now. I would list ADK, joth, and faust as my top scum reads. More later.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 24, 2014, 07:59:25 pm
Good post!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 08:05:19 pm
Meaningless post.

I think people are freaking out way too much over Sk hunting. If there is an SK, it's an issue for town too. It should be allowed for town to address that without getting instant scum points for it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 24, 2014, 08:07:54 pm
Meaningless post.

I think people are freaking out way too much over Sk hunting. If there is an SK, it's an issue for town too. It should be allowed for town to address that without getting instant scum points for it.
It's not an issue town really has to delve on today.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 24, 2014, 08:08:45 pm
And of course it was a good post, he gave us his reads with reasons, and touched on his defensiveness in a rational manner.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 08:12:36 pm
And of course it was a good post, he gave us his reads with reasons, and touched on his defensiveness in a rational manner.

It was not a bad post. But I think IG is a good enough player to make a post like this as scum. There is nothing wrong with it, but I don't give him town points for it either.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 24, 2014, 08:14:55 pm
And of course it was a good post, he gave us his reads with reasons, and touched on his defensiveness in a rational manner.

It was not a bad post. But I think IG is a good enough player to make a post like this as scum. There is nothing wrong with it, but I don't give him town points for it either.

That was fine to say.  "Meaningless post" was not a fair statement.

I think, scum or town, his post was what people were looking for him to contribute.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 08:15:27 pm
Meaningless post.

I think people are freaking out way too much over Sk hunting. If there is an SK, it's an issue for town too. It should be allowed for town to address that without getting instant scum points for it.
It's not an issue town really has to delve on today.

I don't see any problem discussing it today.

Generally, because SK hunting is considered such a classic scum-tell, I think scum will be so careful about it that it's not really a scum tell at all anymore, unless the scum is a noobie.

IG suspected me of being an SK. Is that okay?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 24, 2014, 08:17:06 pm
Quote
I think, scum or town, his post was what people were looking for him to contribute.

The post is fine. I meant meaningless mostly in the context of his image. If you're bothered by that, I take it back.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 24, 2014, 08:19:14 pm
Meaningless post.

I think people are freaking out way too much over Sk hunting. If there is an SK, it's an issue for town too. It should be allowed for town to address that without getting instant scum points for it.
It's not an issue town really has to delve on today.

I don't see any problem discussing it today.

Generally, because SK hunting is considered such a classic scum-tell, I think scum will be so careful about it that it's not really a scum tell at all anymore, unless the scum is a noobie.

IG suspected me of being an SK. Is that okay?

Just as scummy as anyone else doing it.

The reason we don't SK hunt in general is it's a big waste of time if there's no SK, and it's mathematically less likely to succeed, given we are guaranteed there are three scum to catch otherwise.  Plus, partners have interactions, no matter what, so that's something to look for.

SK hunting isn't actually hunting, anyway.  It's distracting from actual scum hunting.  That's why it is manifestly scummy, no matter what.

Anyone who's like "hey, let's try to find the SK today!" is anti-town at best, scummy at worst, because they are trying to change the focus of the game away from what we should be doing.

When we know we have an SK to deal with (odds are we don't, right?), we deal with it.  Until then, treat the game like normal.

That's my piece of SK Hunting as a scumtell.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start
Post by: yuma on September 24, 2014, 10:16:20 pm
Vote Count 1.2

Eevee (1): Hydrad
Jimmmm (1): Ichimaru
Ichimaru (3): Eevee, faust, ADK
silverspawn (1): Jimmmmm

Not Voting (5): ashersky, xerxes, witherweaver, joth, silver

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day1 will last 10 days. The deadline for Day1 will be Friday, October 3 at 7 pm forum time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: yuma on September 24, 2014, 10:16:56 pm
Vote: Ichimaru for being even more over-the-top defensive than usual.

vote: ichimaru

For clarity here was the vote count at the time of this vote:

Vote Count 1.1.5

Eevee (1): Hydrad
Jimmmm (1): Ichimaru
Ichimaru (5): Eevee, faust, witherweaver, silverspawn, joth (L-1)
silverspawn (2): Jimmmmm, ADK

Not Voting (2): ashersky, xerxes

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day1 will last 10 days. The deadline for Day1 will be Friday, October 3 at 7 pm forum time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 24, 2014, 10:25:25 pm
Forgot I was still voting Jimmmmm
unvote
Since I see he's back to his old self.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 25, 2014, 12:02:39 am
yuma, I unvoted.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 25, 2014, 12:03:00 am
oh never mind I can't read.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 25, 2014, 12:17:01 am
You can disagree with me, but I just got done being scum in a game, and I think scum benefits a lot more from knowing they won't be lynched without a ton of warning and a lot of hemming and hawing. All that said, I'm not going to derphammer anybody on purpose. I'm town, I'll play nice.

Town has this tendency day 1 to run up a wagon, run it down, analyze it and then lynch someone else. And that's kind of fine, I guess, but it means that if scum manages to be the first big wagon of the day, they almost get a town pass. I'd rather not see that happen to Ichimaru, because I still think he's scum.

Ichi, it's not like the case on you is rock solid. But it's a totally fine day 1 case. You're behaving exactly how I expect caught scum to behave. And yeah, maybe that's confirmation bias or whatever, but I'm my gut is still saying you're scum. And unless we manage to put together a better case than that, that's where I'd like to be.

I also hate day 1 and am a big fan of getting it over with as quickly as possible. So, I'm not for sure locked in but vote: Ichimaru until someone convinces me otherwise.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 25, 2014, 02:16:58 am
Hmm well I thought Ichi was towny before all of this voting happened and while his reaction doesn't really add up to me I can sort of understand it as annoyed town that thinks he just got killed for no reason.

I'm going to Vote: joth for now. If ichi is town I think there is a high chance scum is on the wagon. SS and joth both strike me as the scummiest. SS's I don't like but I still don't see a new scum player trying this whole new meta thing so I don't think it was him. Joth's was for putting him at L-1 without really thinking about it. I'm not even sure if he didn't mean to do it as even I know that joth hates day 1 stuff. So it strikes me as a possible scum move to get a quick lynch with the excuse that he didn't realize it was that close.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 25, 2014, 08:14:19 am
Hating day 1 is a town tell for me. In James Bond I played day 1 totally differently from normal, got really into it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 25, 2014, 08:49:19 am
Hating day 1 is a town tell for me. In James Bond I played day 1 totally differently from normal, got really into it.

You lost Jamed Bond, right?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 25, 2014, 10:01:14 am
Hating day 1 is a town tell for me. In James Bond I played day 1 totally differently from normal, got really into it.

You lost Jamed Bond, right?

oh yes horribly
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 25, 2014, 10:12:57 am
I believe that Jothe is town.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 25, 2014, 10:15:40 am
I quickly just reread joth, and think he is town too.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 25, 2014, 10:41:08 am
I quickly just reread joth, and think he is town too.

One day we'll have to disagree on something.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 25, 2014, 11:55:05 am
I quickly just reread joth, and think he is town too.

One day we'll have to disagree on something.
That day is not today, my friend.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 25, 2014, 12:23:28 pm
So, I'm rereading, trying to make sense of all the crazy stuff that happened. A timeline:

#61: silverspawn claims VT
#74: Ichi wants to know why silverspawn doesn't want to talk about his claim
#78: Eevee votes Ichi in response
#86: Eevee asks why scum!silverspawn would want to draw attention like that
#87: ashersky says he might have a plan
#90: Jimmmmm votes silverspawn
#100: ashersky "doesn't like the claim"
#119: joth doesn't think silverspawn is scum
#132: WW presses silverspawn to talk about his claim
#145: ADK votes Ichi for hedging on silverspawn
#147: ADK proposes the SK!silverspawn theory, votes him
#149: WW says it "makes some sense"
#152: Ichi agrees with ADK
#158: WW explains my vote on silverspawn
#166: WW votes Ichi
#169: silverspawn presents a very odd view on ethics
#170: silverspawn votes Ichi
#175: WW says I could be Ichi's partner
#181: joth votes Ichi, L-1
#190: WW asks Ichi what he'll flip
#195: WW unvotes
#211: joth unvotes
#225: WW admits to having known Ichi was not hammered when pressing him to claim
#235: ADK votes Ichi

Well... I don't think joth was particularly scummy here (neither townie though). Ichi I still feel could be scum. But who really troubles me is WW. He does basically the same things that Ichi was found scummy for in the first place (rolefishing with silverspawn, sheeping/hedging the SK!silverspawn case), then pushes Ichi for being too much within his meta and actually presses him to claim when he knows he isn't lynched. What's more, he does all this without getting even a single vote. WW's behaviour is easily the most scummy I've seen in my reread.

Vote: Witherweaver
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 25, 2014, 12:39:09 pm
It was public knowledge that Ichi wasn't hammered.. why would I try to get his role?  I knew from the beginning that he was still alive.

I think it's pretty clear I wanted to get him to talk while he was under the impression that he was hammered so that he might slip something to reveal his alignment.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 25, 2014, 12:39:42 pm
Well let me rephrase.. if I was scum trying to get town!Ichi's role, that would be very poorly done by me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 25, 2014, 12:43:56 pm
It was public knowledge that Ichi wasn't hammered.. why would I try to get his role?  I knew from the beginning that he was still alive.

I think it's pretty clear I wanted to get him to talk while he was under the impression that he was hammered so that he might slip something to reveal his alignment.

You wanter to know whether he was a PR or not.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 25, 2014, 12:44:18 pm
Well let me rephrase.. if I was scum trying to get town!Ichi's role, that would be very poorly done by me.

Well, yes.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 25, 2014, 04:23:55 pm
Vote: Wither

Faust makes a lot of good points. WW joined the Ichi wagon on a critical point (which is scummy if Ichi is town), and the comment about faust felt like it could be setting things up for tomorrow.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 25, 2014, 04:24:51 pm
Again, not my scum play.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 25, 2014, 04:28:05 pm
Again, not my scum play.
Fortunately your town play has always been extremely pro-town. Makes it easier to hold you accountable the times you do something (debatably) anti-town.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 25, 2014, 04:28:36 pm
Again, not my scum play.
Fortunately your town play has always been extremely pro-town. Makes it easier to hold you accountable the times you do something (debatably) anti-town.

My scum play is pretty pro-town as well.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 25, 2014, 04:37:43 pm
Actually unvote. silverspawn is entertaining. I want to see where this goes.

Who else is scummy? Hydrad, I guess. Vote: Hydrad

PPE 5

What? Why?

I don't want to distract too much from examining WW, because I think that's worth doing here, but faust, you never answered this.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 25, 2014, 04:38:10 pm
But I'm assuming if you do something (debatably) anti-town thats something scum WW would have a higher chance then town WW?

PPE:1
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 25, 2014, 04:40:24 pm
also asher you mentioned you might have a plan. But did that plan get scrapped when you decided it wasn't that worth to figure out the setup?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 25, 2014, 04:41:38 pm
But I'm assuming if you do something (debatably) anti-town thats something scum WW would have a higher chance then town WW?

PPE:1

Nope.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 25, 2014, 04:42:37 pm
But I'm assuming if you do something (debatably) anti-town thats something scum WW would have a higher chance then town WW?

PPE:1

Nope.

ah well that clears everything up :)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 25, 2014, 04:43:29 pm
Actually looking back, WW joining the Ichi wagon like he did might make him townier in my eyes. Scum is going be trying to figure out who their partner/s are/is, so they're probably going to be staying away from quickly growing day one wagons.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 25, 2014, 06:51:08 pm
Just checking in. Not a ton to say at the moment. I would like to discuss silver's claim more though.

Glad to see some people getting my points on WW PR hunting. One thing that does give me pause is him basically admitting to it though. At the time I noted how amazed I was that he confessed to knowing I hadn't been hammered and pushing me to claim. So either he legitimately didn't see that as a scummy behavior, or there's some weird gambit going on.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 25, 2014, 06:54:06 pm
also asher you mentioned you might have a plan. But did that plan get scrapped when you decided it wasn't that worth to figure out the setup?

Not exactly.  Basically no one was interested in discussing setup/theory, which is fine, as we had other things going on.  My one question was how important anyone thinks it is to know which setup we're playing.

My argument is that we should generally be able to see if we have an SK since we'll have multiple kills, so that's not a reason to strive for.  I don't think we care if the mafia team/traitor know each other, as we should just play the game seeking three scum anyway.  And we can't really play around the possible JOAT anyway.

So on the face of it, even though I have a plan that I think probably gets us the setup, I don't think it's worth using.  I'm wondering if there are competing views.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start
Post by: yuma on September 25, 2014, 06:55:14 pm
Vote Count 1.3

Ichimaru (2): ADK, joth
silverspawn (1): Jimmmmm
joth (1): Hydrad
Witherweaver (2): faust, Eevee
 
Not Voting (5): ashersky, xerxes, witherweaver, silver, ichimaru

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day1 will last 10 days. The deadline for Day1 will be Friday, October 3 at 7 pm forum time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 25, 2014, 06:58:22 pm
also asher you mentioned you might have a plan. But did that plan get scrapped when you decided it wasn't that worth to figure out the setup?

Not exactly.  Basically no one was interested in discussing setup/theory, which is fine, as we had other things going on.  My one question was how important anyone thinks it is to know which setup we're playing.

My argument is that we should generally be able to see if we have an SK since we'll have multiple kills, so that's not a reason to strive for.  I don't think we care if the mafia team/traitor know each other, as we should just play the game seeking three scum anyway.  And we can't really play around the possible JOAT anyway.

So on the face of it, even though I have a plan that I think probably gets us the setup, I don't think it's worth using.  I'm wondering if there are competing views.
This make sense to me. So, I'm not a competing view.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 25, 2014, 06:58:49 pm
also asher you mentioned you might have a plan. But did that plan get scrapped when you decided it wasn't that worth to figure out the setup?

Not exactly.  Basically no one was interested in discussing setup/theory, which is fine, as we had other things going on.  My one question was how important anyone thinks it is to know which setup we're playing.

My argument is that we should generally be able to see if we have an SK since we'll have multiple kills, so that's not a reason to strive for.  I don't think we care if the mafia team/traitor know each other, as we should just play the game seeking three scum anyway.  And we can't really play around the possible JOAT anyway.

So on the face of it, even though I have a plan that I think probably gets us the setup, I don't think it's worth using.  I'm wondering if there are competing views.

No I think I'm pretty much in agreement. Knowing what scum has doesn't help us much and all finding the setup does is let scum know who has the PR roles.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 25, 2014, 07:06:50 pm
Just checking in. Not a ton to say at the moment. I would like to discuss silver's claim more though.

Glad to see some people getting my points on WW PR hunting. One thing that does give me pause is him basically admitting to it though. At the time I noted how amazed I was that he confessed to knowing I hadn't been hammered and pushing me to claim. So either he legitimately didn't see that as a scummy behavior, or there's some weird gambit going on.

Or I was doing exactly what I said I was doing.  I realize there was  a chance you'd slip your PR, but I think if you did, I would have accepted you as town.  Other responses could have been informative without you telling what role you had.  You might have just said you were town, or done a "okay you got me I'm scum" thing.  I thought it worth the chance.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 25, 2014, 07:07:16 pm
Just checking in. Not a ton to say at the moment. I would like to discuss silver's claim more though.

What are your thoughts on it?

Regarding claiming, I certainly don't see any benefit from it right now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 25, 2014, 07:07:48 pm
also asher you mentioned you might have a plan. But did that plan get scrapped when you decided it wasn't that worth to figure out the setup?

Not exactly.  Basically no one was interested in discussing setup/theory, which is fine, as we had other things going on.  My one question was how important anyone thinks it is to know which setup we're playing.

My argument is that we should generally be able to see if we have an SK since we'll have multiple kills, so that's not a reason to strive for.  I don't think we care if the mafia team/traitor know each other, as we should just play the game seeking three scum anyway.  And we can't really play around the possible JOAT anyway.

So on the face of it, even though I have a plan that I think probably gets us the setup, I don't think it's worth using.  I'm wondering if there are competing views.

I think not until we get some more information from flips/claims.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 25, 2014, 07:09:55 pm
That's enough for me.  I figured I was right.

As there was quite an open period of discussion on the setup with yuma, I did take a look at it fairly often and offered suggestions to make it less breakable.

I really think we should actually ignore it completely for the rest of the day (until someone decides to/has to claim).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 25, 2014, 07:19:39 pm
Just checking in. Not a ton to say at the moment. I would like to discuss silver's claim more though.

What are your thoughts on it?

Regarding claiming, I certainly don't see any benefit from it right now.
How do you mean?
You don't see any benefit from what, silver's claim?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 25, 2014, 07:26:11 pm
There is not really any way to find out which row/column we are playing without some claims.

A VT doesn't help.

Of course, the PR's that we have can narrow down the possible options.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 25, 2014, 07:26:26 pm
Just checking in. Not a ton to say at the moment. I would like to discuss silver's claim more though.

What are your thoughts on it?

Regarding claiming, I certainly don't see any benefit from it right now.
How do you mean?
You don't see any benefit from what, silver's claim?

I think he thinks my plan is "claiming."  Interesting thought process.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 25, 2014, 07:26:44 pm
There is not really any way to find out which row/column we are playing without some claims.

A VT doesn't help.

Of course, the PR's that we have can narrow down the possible options.
Are you proposing a massclaim?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 25, 2014, 07:27:00 pm
Also, if you did slip your PR, I think it would actually be better than had you been asked to claim at L-1.  As long as we believed that you believed you were lynched, we'd accept your claim as true.  Your claim at L-1 is pretty much up in the air, but scum knows if it's true. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 25, 2014, 07:28:21 pm
Also, if you did slip your PR, I think it would actually be better than had you been asked to claim at L-1.  As long as we believed that you believed you were lynched, we'd accept your claim as true.  Your claim at L-1 is pretty much up in the air, but scum knows if it's true.

This actually happened in a game.  I can't remember if that game is over yet or not.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 25, 2014, 07:34:43 pm
Also, if you did slip your PR, I think it would actually be better than had you been asked to claim at L-1.  As long as we believed that you believed you were lynched, we'd accept your claim as true.  Your claim at L-1 is pretty much up in the air, but scum knows if it's true.

This actually happened in a game.  I can't remember if that game is over yet or not.

Yeah, it was Sudgy in the game where me, Robz, and Azadin were scum.  He was basically an IC. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 25, 2014, 07:35:20 pm
Homeland maybe.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 25, 2014, 07:36:43 pm
Quote
Are you proposing a massclaim?
No
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 25, 2014, 07:45:40 pm
And the reason I had to press Ichi was because after the "hammer", he talked about him flipping but didn't actually say that he was town or that he was mislynched.  I wasn't convinced it was coming from a town player that just got mislynched.  So I wanted to get him talking more.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 25, 2014, 07:49:08 pm
Just checking in. Not a ton to say at the moment. I would like to discuss silver's claim more though.

What are your thoughts on it?

Regarding claiming, I certainly don't see any benefit from it right now.
How do you mean?
You don't see any benefit from what, silver's claim?

Sorry, those were two different thoughts, the second was regarding ash's original plan. The first was asking you what you thought about silver's claim, since you brought it up but didn't actually say anything about it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 25, 2014, 07:51:39 pm
Just checking in. Not a ton to say at the moment. I would like to discuss silver's claim more though.

What are your thoughts on it?

Regarding claiming, I certainly don't see any benefit from it right now.
How do you mean?
You don't see any benefit from what, silver's claim?

I think he thinks my plan is "claiming."  Interesting thought process.

Well it's hard to imagine a plan involving the setup that doesn't involve people claiming information regarding their roles in some fashion. Am I wrong?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 25, 2014, 07:53:46 pm
And the reason I had to press Ichi was because after the "hammer", he talked about him flipping but didn't actually say that he was town or that he was mislynched.  I wasn't convinced it was coming from a town player that just got mislynched.  So I wanted to get him talking more.
I am still amazed that people think that me claiming in that situation would make me townie. It wouldn't. The only time I flipped as scum, I tried to convince town that they had lost the game and mislynched me.

At that point in this game, I was almost positive I had been derphammered and mislynched, and just wanted to rail because I couldn't believe how stupid it was. There was also a small part of me that was unsure if I had miscounted votes, so did not want to give you information prematurely on the off chance I hadn't actually been hammered. In particular, your almost instant readiness to have me claim made me more suspect that I had made a mistake and wasn't actually hammered.

PPE: 2
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 25, 2014, 07:55:50 pm
And the reason I had to press Ichi was because after the "hammer", he talked about him flipping but didn't actually say that he was town or that he was mislynched.  I wasn't convinced it was coming from a town player that just got mislynched.  So I wanted to get him talking more.
I am still amazed that people think that me claiming in that situation would make me townie. It wouldn't. The only time I flipped as scum, I tried to convince town that they had lost the game and mislynched me.

At that point in this game, I was almost positive I had been derphammered and mislynched, and just wanted to rail because I couldn't believe how stupid it was. There was also a small part of me that was unsure if I had miscounted votes, so did not want to give you information prematurely on the off chance I hadn't actually been hammered. In particular, your almost instant readiness to have me claim made me more suspect that I had made a mistake and wasn't actually hammered.

PPE: 2

It would depend on what you said and how you worded it.  Sometimes you can tell if someone is sincere or not.  As it stood, there was nothing to indicate in any way that you were town.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 25, 2014, 08:47:58 pm
And the reason I had to press Ichi was because after the "hammer", he talked about him flipping but didn't actually say that he was town or that he was mislynched.  I wasn't convinced it was coming from a town player that just got mislynched.  So I wanted to get him talking more.
I am still amazed that people think that me claiming in that situation would make me townie. It wouldn't. The only time I flipped as scum, I tried to convince town that they had lost the game and mislynched me.

At that point in this game, I was almost positive I had been derphammered and mislynched, and just wanted to rail because I couldn't believe how stupid it was. There was also a small part of me that was unsure if I had miscounted votes, so did not want to give you information prematurely on the off chance I hadn't actually been hammered. In particular, your almost instant readiness to have me claim made me more suspect that I had made a mistake and wasn't actually hammered.

PPE: 2

What someone says after the game is already over is also different than what someone says when they've been lynched but they still have teammates to think about.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 25, 2014, 08:55:04 pm
And the reason I had to press Ichi was because after the "hammer", he talked about him flipping but didn't actually say that he was town or that he was mislynched.  I wasn't convinced it was coming from a town player that just got mislynched.  So I wanted to get him talking more.
I am still amazed that people think that me claiming in that situation would make me townie. It wouldn't. The only time I flipped as scum, I tried to convince town that they had lost the game and mislynched me.

At that point in this game, I was almost positive I had been derphammered and mislynched, and just wanted to rail because I couldn't believe how stupid it was. There was also a small part of me that was unsure if I had miscounted votes, so did not want to give you information prematurely on the off chance I hadn't actually been hammered. In particular, your almost instant readiness to have me claim made me more suspect that I had made a mistake and wasn't actually hammered.

PPE: 2

What someone says after the game is already over is also different than what someone says when they've been lynched but they still have teammates to think about.
My scumpartner Yuma was still alive at that point. (This was Dynasty Warriors II)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 25, 2014, 09:04:55 pm
Well then I guess that is a data point to consider.

But to my other question: do you have something to offer on Silverspawn's claim?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 25, 2014, 09:18:59 pm
Well then I guess that is a data point to consider.

But to my other question: do you have something to offer on Silverspawn's claim?
Unlike others, I do not find your theory regarding him being an SK to be that unfounded.

If he really is a VT, I see absolutely no reason for him to claim in this setup. There are VT's in virtually every Mafia game, and they don't normally claim like that ever. I think he is lying--for some purpose that he doesn't want to reveal. But it's difficult to ascertain what his reasoning is given the information that we have at this point. He doesn't want to tell us why he did it, and I don't see how that as protown behavior.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 25, 2014, 09:21:33 pm
I guess the way I saw it when I first read it was that, while it's probably antitown, I couldn't see what his actual plan as scum would be. It just looked like a weird newbie town play. But then I thought of the SK thing and went, well there's at least one scum narrative there.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 25, 2014, 09:29:39 pm
Silver, did you at the town think that claiming advances town's wincon? In retrospect, do you think it increased town's chance of winning compared to not claiming?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 25, 2014, 10:07:40 pm
Silver, did you at the town think that claiming advances town's wincon? In retrospect, do you think it increased town's chance of winning compared to not claiming?
yes
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 25, 2014, 10:12:35 pm
I'm not going to explain my reasoning, but I'll say a few things.

I am really just a VT. That's it. I'm not trying to hide any PR or try to imitate crazy town play, when I'm an SK or scum. I'm just a VT.

Already, the claim has caused suspicion of IG, a lot of conversation and a situation where IG thought he was hammered. The only possible disadvantage it could have is, scum doesn't lynch me. Big deal. They were most likely not going to lynch me anyway. And it's still entirely possible that they think I'd try to hide a PR, and kill me regardless, or even because of the claim. It's pretty ridiculous, at this point, to claim that it was anti town.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 25, 2014, 10:13:17 pm
lynch *NK
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 26, 2014, 04:52:46 am
Actually unvote. silverspawn is entertaining. I want to see where this goes.

Who else is scummy? Hydrad, I guess. Vote: Hydrad

PPE 5

What? Why?

I don't want to distract too much from examining WW, because I think that's worth doing here, but faust, you never answered this.

Oh, at that time all Hydrad had done was do some jokes and claim he didn't understand the setup (didn't know what jk means). I always find that scummy.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 26, 2014, 04:54:59 am
And the reason I had to press Ichi was because after the "hammer", he talked about him flipping but didn't actually say that he was town or that he was mislynched.  I wasn't convinced it was coming from a town player that just got mislynched.  So I wanted to get him talking more.

What could Ichi have said to convince you of his townieness?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 26, 2014, 08:54:55 am
Why is Ichi suddenly down to 2 votes? Do people actually think he's town?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 26, 2014, 09:24:14 am
And the reason I had to press Ichi was because after the "hammer", he talked about him flipping but didn't actually say that he was town or that he was mislynched.  I wasn't convinced it was coming from a town player that just got mislynched.  So I wanted to get him talking more.

What could Ichi have said to convince you of his townieness?

Claiming a-la Sudgyness would have, most likely.  Something where he actually said what his alignment was or that he was actually mislynched would have helped as well.  We'd have to look at those things and figure out if they're constructed, but sometimes you can tell when they are not.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 26, 2014, 11:53:36 am
Hmmm is XP the only one that hasn't been here yet? I'd like to get his opinion on what happened here. (is this something I can request a prod on?)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on September 26, 2014, 01:04:35 pm
I think what ss did was fine once but shouldn't be repeated. I think I can guess his motives. IG hasn't really screamed town or scum - a little scummy but still <50%.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 26, 2014, 01:06:29 pm
oh hi XP!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on September 26, 2014, 01:10:57 pm
Hi. Sorry for lurking - I am reading everything though, that's how I responded immediately. I don't have any reads here, and the setup can't really be looked at until something happens, so I'm not sure what to say. I could help lynch IG, I guess.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 26, 2014, 01:12:01 pm
XP, is your new avatar permanent?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 26, 2014, 03:06:24 pm
Here we go. . .
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 26, 2014, 04:25:09 pm
Here we go. . .
Where?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 26, 2014, 04:30:13 pm
Eevee just wondering. You were originally on the IG wagon. I don't know if you've stated your ideas on the wagon. did you get a towny vibe from it or scummy?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 26, 2014, 04:47:28 pm
Eevee just wondering. You were originally on the IG wagon. I don't know if you've stated your ideas on the wagon. did you get a towny vibe from it or scummy?
Honestly, I don't remember voting for IG. The whole "lynched or not lynched" episode happened when I was offline. I'm pretty sure my vote at the time was just a pressure vote, vote to make him feel the heat and give us information.

I'm a big proponent of lynch mafia not scum. Just because IG appears scummy, we don't have to lynch him if the scum narrative doesn't add up. I'm not sure it does here. One big issue I have is why wouldn't he fakeclaim if he was scum? The other is that everyone is so gung-ho against him.

Honestly, maybe he is scummier than your average person, but not my ideal lynch choise for today if we are only factoring in the chance to hit scum. There is of course the fact that anyone who has been near lynched is going to be an informational lynch, were he to flip scum we could more or less absolve the first attackers for example.

So, I don't know. I find the wagon, especially joth, a bit over-eager.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 26, 2014, 04:49:16 pm
Eevee just wondering. You were originally on the IG wagon. I don't know if you've stated your ideas on the wagon. did you get a towny vibe from it or scummy?
Honestly, I don't remember voting for IG. The whole "lynched or not lynched" episode happened when I was offline. I'm pretty sure my vote at the time was just a pressure vote, vote to make him feel the heat and give us information.

I'm a big proponent of lynch mafia not scum. Just because IG appears scummy, we don't have to lynch him if the scum narrative doesn't add up. I'm not sure it does here. One big issue I have is why wouldn't he fakeclaim if he was scum? The other is that everyone is so gung-ho against him.

Honestly, maybe he is scummier than your average person, but not my ideal lynch choise for today if we are only factoring in the chance to hit scum. There is of course the fact that anyone who has been near lynched is going to be an informational lynch, were he to flip scum we could more or less absolve the first attackers for example.

So, I don't know. I find the wagon, especially joth, a bit over-eager.

He wouldn't have had a chance to fake claim from his perspective.  He thought he was derphammered.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 26, 2014, 04:50:15 pm
Hmmh. That does make sense.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 26, 2014, 04:50:26 pm
And

Vote: Eevee


For the "yeah he's not that scummy and I don't want to lynch him but maybe let's go ahead and lynch him anyway or 'best info'" kind of post.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 26, 2014, 04:50:39 pm
And pushes me back to being a fan of the wagon. Damn I'm easy.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 26, 2014, 04:51:26 pm
And

Vote: Eevee


For the "yeah he's not that scummy and I don't want to lynch him but maybe let's go ahead and lynch him anyway or 'best info'" kind of post.
He absolutely is scummy! I'm just not sure the scum narrative is actually there. And I'm not saying lynch him for info. I'm saying he'd easily be the most information flip at this point.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 26, 2014, 05:08:58 pm
Awww, man Witherweaver beat me to it! But here's some other things.

- The "Oh did I vote? I didn't remember that, guess it was just a pressure vote"

- This.

I quickly just reread joth, and think he is town too.

So, I don't know. I find the wagon, especially joth, a bit over-eager.

Anyway, Vote: Eevee
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 26, 2014, 05:11:42 pm
I mean, you are over-eager. Maybe playing up your certainty on purpose, I don't know. I'm not saying it makes you scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 26, 2014, 05:41:48 pm
I don't find Eevee's responses particularly scummy here. Joth, on the other hand, seems to gain scum reads in an oddly opportunistic way.

vote: Joth
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 26, 2014, 05:47:36 pm
Look how and when Eevee has voted for IG:

Well IVote: Ichimaru, that's so scummy.

This was a far less serious vote than the ones that followed. It is very believable that he doesn't remember it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 26, 2014, 05:47:57 pm
Ok, you can call it opportunism, but I was literally going to vote before I saw WW's vote. I found Eevee's post very scummy. I still find IG scummy, but that wagon is stalled, for better or for worse.

Eevee's post was SUPER scummy. It was hedgy. It tried to downplay previous votes/rewrite history. It was inconsistent with reads he'd offered previously (although I concede that maybe that last one was just a product of me misreading "I find the wagon, especially joth, a bit over-eager" as "I find the wagon scummy")
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 26, 2014, 05:48:31 pm
Votes are serious business. You should remember making them.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 26, 2014, 05:49:19 pm
It was barely after the RVS.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 26, 2014, 05:50:02 pm
Ok, you can call it opportunism, but I was literally going to vote before I saw WW's vote. I found Eevee's post very scummy. I still find IG scummy, but that wagon is stalled, for better or for worse.

Or you're just scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 26, 2014, 05:50:52 pm
Votes are serious business. You should remember making them.
Interesting that you say this after nearly derphammering me and then arguing how awesome derphammers are.

Mostly, I agree with this though. However, silver's early claim pretty much cut RVS to nothing, so I can understand Eeevee making his vote on me for slight reasons and later forgetting it.

PPE: silver
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 26, 2014, 05:52:34 pm
I stand by that vote. There's no contradiction there at all. ANd SS, if you RVS (and I'm not at all conceding that Eevee's vote was RVS, but hypothetically if you do) someone and then a wagon builds on them and you don't move your vote, that's even scummier.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 26, 2014, 05:53:59 pm
So it's possible to believe that votes are very serious and then vote posting any reasoning and without really checking the thread at all, and nearly hammering someone by accident? And there's no contradiction there?

Sorry, but I don't really see it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 26, 2014, 05:54:28 pm
How is it to play scum two games in a row? Are you getting better at it, or is it annoying because you'd rather be town?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 26, 2014, 05:54:36 pm
Votes are serious business. You should remember making them.
Oh the irony.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 26, 2014, 05:56:16 pm
I stand by that vote. There's no contradiction there at all. ANd SS, if you RVS (and I'm not at all conceding that Eevee's vote was RVS, but hypothetically if you do) someone and then a wagon builds on them and you don't move your vote, that's even scummier.
The wagon formed and took off in like three hours, all of which I was offline. I couldn't move my vote because I wasn't present.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 26, 2014, 05:56:34 pm
Eevee, do you think number of contradicting statements and probability of being scum are closely related? If so, in which way? Does it happen more often as scum, as you have to fake reads, or does it happen less often as scum, as you are more careful?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 26, 2014, 05:57:20 pm
So it's possible to believe that votes are very serious and then vote posting any reasoning and without really checking the thread at all, and nearly hammering someone by accident? And there's no contradiction there?

Sorry, but I don't really see it.

I voted for you because I thought you were scum and I was sure enough to be ok with lynching you. That's a serious vote. I had reasoning, I just didn't post it because it had all been said before.

Eevee is saying that he didn't remember his vote and that it was a "pressure vote" which is somehow "not a serious vote" yet he didn't move it and you almost got lynched.

You don't see a difference there? I might not have realized how close to lynch you were, and that was sloppy play, but my vote was serious, I stood by it then, and I stand by it now. Eevee, on the other hand, just tried to backpedal away from his vote.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 26, 2014, 05:57:33 pm
Eevee, do you think number of contradicting statements and probability of being scum are closely related? If so, in which way? Does it happen more often as scum, as you have to fake reads, or does it happen less often as scum, as you are more careful?
For me or for the player pool?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 26, 2014, 05:58:06 pm
Eevee, do you think number of contradicting statements and probability of being scum are closely related? If so, in which way? Does it happen more often as scum, as you have to fake reads, or does it happen less often as scum, as you are more careful?
For me or for the player pool?
In general.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 26, 2014, 05:59:14 pm
So it's possible to believe that votes are very serious and then vote posting any reasoning and without really checking the thread at all, and nearly hammering someone by accident? And there's no contradiction there?

Sorry, but I don't really see it.

I voted for you because I thought you were scum and I was sure enough to be ok with lynching you. That's a serious vote. I had reasoning, I just didn't post it because it had all been said before.

Eevee is saying that he didn't remember his vote and that it was a "pressure vote" which is somehow "not a serious vote" yet he didn't move it and you almost got lynched.

You don't see a difference there? I might not have realized how close to lynch you were, and that was sloppy play, but my vote was serious, I stood by it then, and I stand by it now. Eevee, on the other hand, just tried to backpedal away from his vote.
This is a fair post. I mostly agree with what you have to say; however, I don't understand at all how Eevee can be more implicated from my wagon than you.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 26, 2014, 05:59:34 pm
Eevee, do you think number of contradicting statements and probability of being scum are closely related? If so, in which way? Does it happen more often as scum, as you have to fake reads, or does it happen less often as scum, as you are more careful?
For me or for the player pool?
In general.
I wouldn't say they are closely related, it's very situational, but I'd definitely say they occur less often as scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 26, 2014, 06:01:12 pm
Joth, I only know you from the James Bond game, and I find that you play very similar.

Quote
I wouldn't say they are closely related, it's very situational, but I'd definitely say they occur less often as scum.

Does this mean joth gets town points?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 26, 2014, 06:01:24 pm
The only blame I accept for Ichi-wagon are my leading questions that made him do all that stuff, bury himself.

Honestly, I voted to get more out of him, to help everyone make a read, and while I was gone for a couple of hours, you guys went crazy and almost accidentally lynched him. It's all good, stuff for us to analyze, but when I was casting my very first vote in the game, I couldn't have anticipated that happening.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 26, 2014, 06:01:41 pm
Also, does one of you know more about joth's metagame?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 26, 2014, 06:01:56 pm
Joth, I only know you from the James Bond game, and I find that you play very similar.

Quote
I wouldn't say they are closely related, it's very situational, but I'd definitely say they occur less often as scum.

Does this mean joth gets town points?
What are you getting at?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 26, 2014, 06:02:54 pm
The only blame I accept for Ichi-wagon are my leading questions that made him do all that stuff, bury himself.

Honestly, I voted to get more out of him, to help everyone make a read, and while I was gone for a couple of hours, you guys went crazy and almost accidentally lynched him. It's all good, stuff for us to analyze, but when I was casting my very first vote in the game, I couldn't have anticipated that happening.

You defend yourself a little bit too much for my tastes.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 26, 2014, 06:03:40 pm
Joth, I only know you from the James Bond game, and I find that you play very similar.

Quote
I wouldn't say they are closely related, it's very situational, but I'd definitely say they occur less often as scum.

Does this mean joth gets town points?
What are you getting at?

Joth put someone at L-1 without announcing it. Now he is saying that votes are serious business, that's contradicting.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 26, 2014, 06:05:18 pm
The only blame I accept for Ichi-wagon are my leading questions that made him do all that stuff, bury himself.

Honestly, I voted to get more out of him, to help everyone make a read, and while I was gone for a couple of hours, you guys went crazy and almost accidentally lynched him. It's all good, stuff for us to analyze, but when I was casting my very first vote in the game, I couldn't have anticipated that happening.

Ok, you are getting more believable actually. I need to actually look back at your Ichi vote.

For the record, I was voting Eevee based on a scummy post, not for his part in the Ichi wagon, which wouldn't make sense because I still think Ichi has a very good chance of being scum.

PPE:

Joth, I only know you from the James Bond game, and I find that you play very similar.

Quote
I wouldn't say they are closely related, it's very situational, but I'd definitely say they occur less often as scum.

Does this mean joth gets town points?
What are you getting at?

Joth put someone at L-1 without announcing it. Now he is saying that votes are serious business, that's contradicting.

Here let me just explain 10 MORE TIMES why it's not so you can continue not reading my posts.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 26, 2014, 06:06:32 pm
Also, does one of you know more about joth's metagame?
I've played these games with him for two and a half years, I think I have as good an idea as anyone.

Which basically is, he is so experienced you can't catch him by anything super simple and reliable. There is nothing concrete he does as town but doesn't as scum, or vice versa. He is himself the #1 expert on analyzing joth, and surely tries to mimic whatever patterns he has identified in his town play, or hide any tendencies he has as scum.

I will say that generally I feel he is mislynched more than your average player of his caliber, and doesn't have the reputation of striving as scum. Despite being analytical, he sometimes plays aggressive based on his gut or emotions.

Additionally, he just lost as scum, so maybe you'd expect him to be a bit reserved and cautious this time if he drew scum again.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 26, 2014, 06:07:30 pm
Joth, I only know you from the James Bond game, and I find that you play very similar.

Quote
I wouldn't say they are closely related, it's very situational, but I'd definitely say they occur less often as scum.

Does this mean joth gets town points?
What are you getting at?

Joth put someone at L-1 without announcing it. Now he is saying that votes are serious business, that's contradicting.
That seems to be a double standard rather than a contradiction.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 26, 2014, 06:07:48 pm
I don't find anything particularly scummy about Joth here. He saw a wagon he liked, he voted, good for him. Hell, if he had cast a hammer vote like that I wouldn't have found it scummy. Scum plays way more careful than that.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 26, 2014, 06:08:24 pm
Quote
Here let me just explain 10 MORE TIMES why it's not so you can continue not reading my posts.


You seem to be stressed out. That reminds me a lot of your final moments in the James Bond Mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 26, 2014, 06:09:33 pm
Quote
Here let me just explain 10 MORE TIMES why it's not so you can continue not reading my posts.


You seem to be stressed out. That reminds me a lot of your final moments in the James Bond Mafia.
When making comparisons to James Bond mafia, you should keep in mind that it's the same guy, whatever his role. They are bound to appear somewhat similar.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 26, 2014, 06:10:08 pm
I don't think people can blame eevee for the wagon as much as you seem to be. You can still find him scummy but I don't think you can find him scummy for that vote.

PPE:3
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 26, 2014, 06:10:26 pm
Quote
Here let me just explain 10 MORE TIMES why it's not so you can continue not reading my posts.


You seem to be stressed out. That reminds me a lot of your final moments in the James Bond Mafia.
When making comparisons to James Bond mafia, you should keep in mind that it's the same guy, whatever his role. They are bound to appear somewhat similar.

Not helping.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 26, 2014, 06:10:50 pm
I don't think people can blame eevee for the wagon as much as you seem to be. You can still find him scummy but I don't think you can find him scummy for that vote.

PPE:3

This is a little off to me. What do you think we should find eevee scummy for?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 26, 2014, 06:11:01 pm
I don't think people can blame eevee for the wagon as much as you seem to be. You can still find him scummy but I don't think you can find him scummy for that vote.

PPE:3

Yeah, I think you're right. Like I said, less about the vote, more about the fact that he claimed to forget about the vote.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 26, 2014, 06:11:53 pm
Sigh. unvote

This isn't going to go anywhere useful.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 26, 2014, 06:12:37 pm
I don't think people can blame eevee for the wagon as much as you seem to be. You can still find him scummy but I don't think you can find him scummy for that vote.

PPE:3

Yeah, I think you're right. Like I said, less about the vote, more about the fact that he claimed to forget about the vote.
What motivation would I have to lie about that?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 26, 2014, 06:14:45 pm
I don't think people can blame eevee for the wagon as much as you seem to be. You can still find him scummy but I don't think you can find him scummy for that vote.

PPE:3

This is a little off to me. What do you think we should find eevee scummy for?

Hmm maybe I didn't explain myself correcly. I guess I'm saying if you find eevee scummy for other reasons I'll listen to those. But I'm not going to listen to a case on eevee where people seem to be blaming him for having a early vote on IG and then IG almost getting lynched. I don't think that vote was scummy at all.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 26, 2014, 06:15:44 pm
I don't think people can blame eevee for the wagon as much as you seem to be. You can still find him scummy but I don't think you can find him scummy for that vote.

PPE:3

Yeah, I think you're right. Like I said, less about the vote, more about the fact that he claimed to forget about the vote.

Ok the forgetting about the vote makes a bit more sense to build a case on.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 26, 2014, 06:16:05 pm
Is it just me or is the hind leg of eevee three times as thick as the front leg in your picture?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 26, 2014, 06:17:54 pm
I don't think people can blame eevee for the wagon as much as you seem to be. You can still find him scummy but I don't think you can find him scummy for that vote.

PPE:3

Yeah, I think you're right. Like I said, less about the vote, more about the fact that he claimed to forget about the vote.
What motivation would I have to lie about that?

Distancing yourself from the wagon.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 26, 2014, 06:19:02 pm
I don't think people can blame eevee for the wagon as much as you seem to be. You can still find him scummy but I don't think you can find him scummy for that vote.

PPE:3

Yeah, I think you're right. Like I said, less about the vote, more about the fact that he claimed to forget about the vote.
What motivation would I have to lie about that?

Distancing yourself from the wagon.
Why would I have to, given my position in it?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 26, 2014, 06:23:17 pm
Another thing: besides me, who is the newest player in this game? hydrad?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 26, 2014, 06:30:26 pm
I don't think people can blame eevee for the wagon as much as you seem to be. You can still find him scummy but I don't think you can find him scummy for that vote.

PPE:3

Yeah, I think you're right. Like I said, less about the vote, more about the fact that he claimed to forget about the vote.
What motivation would I have to lie about that?

Distancing yourself from the wagon.
Why would I have to, given my position in it?

There's a view reasons you might want to? If you're scum, you know Ichi's alignment. If Ichi is town and you think he's being lynched you don't want to look like you pushed/started that wagon tomorrow. If he's scum, you might want to be distancing yourself so you can segue into defending him without looking like you're flip-flopping.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 26, 2014, 06:31:06 pm
Man I liked vote: Ichi better. I'm switching back. Kinda talked myself out of this Eevee case.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 26, 2014, 06:31:26 pm
Another thing: besides me, who is the newest player in this game? hydrad?

I think so. I played like 2 games before you started.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start
Post by: yuma on September 26, 2014, 06:54:13 pm
Vote Count 1.4

Ichimaru (2): ADK, joth
silverspawn (1): Jimmmmm
joth (1): Hydrad
Witherweaver (2): faust, Eevee
Eevee (1): Witherweaver
 
Not Voting (4): ashersky, xerxes, ichimaru, silver

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day1 will last 10 days. The deadline for Day1 will be Friday, October 3 at 7 pm forum time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 26, 2014, 07:00:11 pm
I'll be posting in VLA, but I depart for a trip on Sunday night so I'll be less available.

I think joth is town.

Silver seem scummy.

Witherweaver seems towny.

The "scummy posts of Eevee" were indeed scummy.  Hedgy, so hedgy.  I think if Ichi is scum, Eevee has a high chance of also being scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on September 26, 2014, 07:31:54 pm
Is it just me or is the hind leg of eevee three times as thick as the front leg in your picture?
It's just sitting, so you can't see the leg.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 26, 2014, 07:36:22 pm
question. does everyone usually have a person that they can't read at all? Because right now I'll say that I think XP is scummy slightly. But in every game I've played with him I've basically seen him scummy and been wrong about it. I don't know why but I just can't figure it out. I know hes only posted 3 posts right now so I can't read him right away and hopefully I will have a better read after a bit more. But my gut reaction right now is a scummy XP...
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 26, 2014, 07:40:58 pm
Quote
I think joth is town.

Silver seem scummy.

Witherweaver seems towny.

The "scummy posts of Eevee" were indeed scummy.  Hedgy, so hedgy.  I think if Ichi is scum, Eevee has a high chance of also being scum.

Is this a hidden message? You post reverse reads on what makes sense on everyone.

let me translate:

You think joth might be scum.

silver seems towny

WW seems scummy

The votes of Eevee don't mean anything

that sounds right.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 26, 2014, 08:40:52 pm
Huh?  Ash makes sense.  Joth seems quite town, I'm clearly town and playing townie, and Eevees post was scummy.  The only thing I disagree on is Silver, unless the SK theory holds up.  (I'm leaning no.)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 26, 2014, 08:43:13 pm
I guess we found that thing we disagree on!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 26, 2014, 09:01:02 pm
Pretty sure that means you're scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 26, 2014, 09:02:15 pm
Oh come on now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 26, 2014, 09:03:03 pm
I might be right.  You should check.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 26, 2014, 09:04:06 pm
Let's not get arrogant. I'm the expert on my role here.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 26, 2014, 09:24:04 pm
Is it just me or is the hind leg of eevee three times as thick as the front leg in your picture?
It's just sitting, so you can't see the leg.

...... that should make sense, but I don't see it
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 26, 2014, 10:12:35 pm
question. does everyone usually have a person that they can't read at all? Because right now I'll say that I think XP is scummy slightly. But in every game I've played with him I've basically seen him scummy and been wrong about it. I don't know why but I just can't figure it out. I know hes only posted 3 posts right now so I can't read him right away and hopefully I will have a better read after a bit more. But my gut reaction right now is a scummy XP...

I feel that way about everyone. I'm pretty bad at mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 26, 2014, 10:14:43 pm
I'm pretty bad at mafia.

Scumtell for you, man.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 26, 2014, 10:39:09 pm
ash you wanted to reply last monday. has something come up or did you just forget it?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 27, 2014, 12:17:13 am
ash you wanted to reply last monday. has something come up or did you just forget it?

Reply to what?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 27, 2014, 12:19:56 am
uh... my pm?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 27, 2014, 12:21:52 am
uh... my pm?

Oh, about your setup?

Yeah, I haven't had time to delve into it.  Probably better for you have asked by PM about your PM, not in this game thread, as it made no sense to me here.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 27, 2014, 12:24:02 am
this way seemed more casual
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 27, 2014, 12:28:28 am
this way seems a lot like poor mafia sportsmanship. One should not be discussing anything related to the game via PM. By extension, one shouldn't discuss PMs in the game, as your mutual referencing of a message that contains non-public information could be seen as talking in code.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 27, 2014, 12:33:13 am
this way seems a lot like poor mafia sportsmanship. One should not be discussing anything related to the game via PM. By extension, one shouldn't discuss PMs in the game, as your mutual referencing of a message that contains non-public information could be seen as talking in code.

I agree.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 27, 2014, 12:45:45 am
this way seems a lot like poor mafia sportsmanship. One should not be discussing anything related to the game via PM. By extension, one shouldn't discuss PMs in the game, as your mutual referencing of a message that contains non-public information could be seen as talking in code.

I think it's fine (well I thought about it before I did it, and decided it was fine, otherwise I would not have done it). Firstly, it's obvious that the other way is BM. You can't discuss the game, or anything related to the game outside of the game, because that's just the rules. However, I don't see a problem with discussing outside stuff inside of the game. We discuss avatars during the game, and noone has a problem with that. Chairs mentioned stuff about his kid, and noone has a problem with that, and I'm sure there are other examples.

You made a point about non-public information. While I totally agree that you could figure out a way to cheat like this, I don't think that's reason. There is actually zero assurance that players don't cheat. If you want to cheat in f.ds mafia, you don't need to invent codes or send hidden messages, you can just do it via pm, and there is nothing that can stop you. You just have to trust the players not to do it.

And another thing is, even if you ask something about mafia in general, it's not related to the game. If you look close enough, you'll see that you do this all the time. You saying that it might not be okay is not related to the game. You could have done that via pm.

So, I really don't think it's a problem.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 27, 2014, 12:49:17 am
I also think it can be possible to create reads from discussing things in the game that are not related to the game, because players might have a different mindset or be more/less willing to do so if they are or are not town. My post, for example, has brought attention to me, even though it was not related to the game. In this game, my first post was  a claim, so I obviously don't mind the attention here, but I might not want it as scum.

Stuff like the above has happened before I think.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 27, 2014, 05:27:30 am
Eevee's post was a bit scummy, I can agree there, but overall I find WW scummier.

silverspawn shouldn't discuss anything related to secret infomation in thread. At the very least, I hope you talk these things over with yuma before you do them. We don't want you modkilled or something (probably).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on September 27, 2014, 02:15:30 pm
question. does everyone usually have a person that they can't read at all? Because right now I'll say that I think XP is scummy slightly. But in every game I've played with him I've basically seen him scummy and been wrong about it. I don't know why but I just can't figure it out. I know hes only posted 3 posts right now so I can't read him right away and hopefully I will have a better read after a bit more. But my gut reaction right now is a scummy XP...
Yeah, you and silverspawn seem to have this automatically part of your reads, so I have to not OMGUS especially with you.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 27, 2014, 03:36:08 pm
So things seem to have stalled a little bit, which isn't good. A lot of the crazy action first thing is kinda over, and now we're left trying to analyze everything that happened regarding my wagon and silver's claim.
It's good to see XP here.
I don't really buy the scum case against Eevee. At this point, I don't have many strong reads either way. Mostly, I still fault silver and joth for opportunistic voting (I know joth had reasons, but I still feel he should have put them with his vote). I'm glad at least that my wagon gives us a lot of information and stuff to analyze. Pretty much everyone made a commitment to it one way or the other, so that's good.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on September 27, 2014, 05:34:14 pm
I think silver's off-topic posts are distracting and therefore somewhat scummy.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 27, 2014, 09:22:32 pm
Maybe coming from a vet but I think from a newer player still learning the ropes of the etiquette and such it's whatever.

But I'm still leaning scum on the whole VT claim thing.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 27, 2014, 10:12:14 pm
I honestly don't think the silver lynch is happening. Got any other plans?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 27, 2014, 10:16:05 pm
You guys may want to take a look at this.

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7695.msg424638#msg424638 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7695.msg424638#msg424638)

Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 27, 2014, 10:17:30 pm
There's a backup mod.  I think we just have to play on.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 27, 2014, 10:17:52 pm
There's a backup mod.  I think we just have to play on.
Ok. I was unsure about that.

Thank you for telling me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 27, 2014, 10:19:17 pm
There's a backup mod.  I think we just have to play on.
Ok. I was unsure about that.

Thank you for telling me.

mail-mi can confirm for us, but I assume he has access to the mod QT and all that.  It's a semi-open setup anyway.

It's really sad, but I see this as his final legacy game, given he invented it.  Let's do him the honor of playing it out strongly.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 27, 2014, 10:23:16 pm
I keep going back and forth and Silver and I've settled on the VT claim completely null WIFOM.  I'm going to ignore it.  I suggest we examine his other play.   Nothing really screams town to me, though he has been prodding people, which could be legitimate scum hunting.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 27, 2014, 10:25:00 pm
I keep going back and forth and Silver and I've settled on the VT claim completely null WIFOM.  I'm going to ignore it.  I suggest we examine his other play.   Nothing really screams town to me, though he has been prodding people, which could be legitimate scum hunting.

I mean, there's definitely "newbie town just claims VT because it's sort of boring to be a VT and what harm can come of it" claiming, and then there's "I'm well aware that there's a newbie type of claiming that will be forgive and give me lots of towncred" claiming.

It's hard to tell the difference.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 27, 2014, 10:28:14 pm
I keep going back and forth and Silver and I've settled on the VT claim completely null WIFOM.  I'm going to ignore it.  I suggest we examine his other play.   Nothing really screams town to me, though he has been prodding people, which could be legitimate scum hunting.

I mean, there's definitely "newbie town just claims VT because it's sort of boring to be a VT and what harm can come of it" claiming, and then there's "I'm well aware that there's a newbie type of claiming that will be forgive and give me lots of towncred" claiming.

It's hard to tell the difference.
I definitely don't think silverspawn is doing the former, but I'm don't agree it means that it has to be the latter.

I think, whatever SS's alignment, he did give this issue more thought than "it's so boring to be a VT". He claims he still thinks what he did is helping town.. I don't know if I agree, but just how bold it is feels quite town to me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 27, 2014, 10:32:50 pm
I keep going back and forth and Silver and I've settled on the VT claim completely null WIFOM.  I'm going to ignore it.  I suggest we examine his other play.   Nothing really screams town to me, though he has been prodding people, which could be legitimate scum hunting.

I mean, there's definitely "newbie town just claims VT because it's sort of boring to be a VT and what harm can come of it" claiming, and then there's "I'm well aware that there's a newbie type of claiming that will be forgive and give me lots of towncred" claiming.

It's hard to tell the difference.
I definitely don't think silverspawn is doing the former, but I'm don't agree it means that it has to be the latter.

I think, whatever SS's alignment, he did give this issue more thought than "it's so boring to be a VT". He claims he still thinks what he did is helping town.. I don't know if I agree, but just how bold it is feels quite town to me.
Exactly. SS has at least 100% alluded to having a reason for his claim. I do not see him doing this as "newbie play". How many games has he been in so far? At any rate, that alone clears some sort of newbie defense for me--not that I think silver would want to make that defense anyway. I just wish he would tell us his reasoning, but his new playstyle is more cryptic apparently.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 27, 2014, 10:37:43 pm
Silverspawn is like one of the top 15 dominion players in the world. Dude is obviously very very smart. No "I honestly didn't think of it much" defense applies here, not that I think he would want to use one.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 27, 2014, 10:48:32 pm
He has a couple games under his belt, not really so newbieish.  I think he had a plan.  Scum or Town is not really discernable from that alone
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 27, 2014, 10:51:28 pm
He has a couple games under his belt, not really so newbieish.  I think he had a plan.  Scum or Town is not really discernable from that alone
Other in that town is more likely to go for a bold plan.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 27, 2014, 10:52:53 pm
I have a hard time having faith in his plan when he won't explain what it is.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 27, 2014, 10:54:45 pm
I have a hard time having faith in his plan when he won't explain what it is.
His plan might just have been "get reactions to the claim and soulread which of them are scummy and which towny".
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 27, 2014, 10:55:52 pm
I have a hard time having faith in his plan when he won't explain what it is.
Does scum ever make a plan, not invent a reason and just claim to not be willing to explain their reason when pressed?

No, I think town or scum, he thought through everything through about this.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 27, 2014, 10:56:46 pm
I have a hard time having faith in his plan when he won't explain what it is.

Faith is about not having information.  If you knew his plan, you could reason out whether it was good or not.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 27, 2014, 10:58:00 pm
I have a hard time having faith in his plan when he won't explain what it is.
His plan might just have been "get reactions to the claim and soulread which of them are scummy and which towny".
It would be nice to here something like that from him.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: mail-mi on September 28, 2014, 12:10:13 am
I have asked yuma what will happen with the modding situation. For now, play on.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start
Post by: mail-mi on September 28, 2014, 12:16:01 am
Vote Count 1.5

Ichimaru (2): ADK, joth
silverspawn (1): Jimmmmm
joth (1): Hydrad
Witherweaver (2): faust, Eevee
Eevee (1): Witherweaver
 
Not Voting (4): ashersky, xerxes, ichimaru, silver

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day1 will last 10 days. The deadline for Day1 will be Friday, October 3 at 7 pm forum time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 28, 2014, 12:19:02 am
I have a hard time having faith in his plan when he won't explain what it is.
His plan might just have been "get reactions to the claim and soulread which of them are scummy and which towny".
It would be nice to here something like that from him.

Given Eevee gave him this answer, he could just quote it.

I'll vote: Eevee at this point.  Scummy odd hedging before (Eevee is not a hedger -- he's a buddier, but not a hedger) and then feeding Silver lines.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 28, 2014, 12:51:26 am
Let's say my plan was to force reactions. If I opened the game with "Hey, I'm a VT. I'm telling you this to see how you react," the usefulness of the whole claim would have flown right out the window. Sure, I could tell it now, but there's no harm if I don't. I assure you that it would not help us if I did. If anything, it would make me look better, but it's really easy for scum!me to say, yea I wanted to force reactions.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Robz888 on September 28, 2014, 01:18:19 am
I'm just catching up with some Forum stuff... it looks like we are all set here though, with mail-mi taking over? Let me know if this isn't the case. Otherwise, play on!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Robz888 on September 28, 2014, 01:18:38 am
And can I get the speccy?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 28, 2014, 06:45:04 pm
Crickets! And I'm the biggest wagon, yikes.

I don't know why "feeding silver lines is scummy", but since he isn't telling us anything, all we can do is speculate. I don't know if I've been any more hedgy than usual, day 1 all your reads are still kind of fuzzy (see what I did there?).

I'm emerging with a stronger and stronger non-mafia (town, or maybe SK) read on SS. Joth, as I explained also a town read, although lighter. Faust has made sense to me, small town read for that.

I guess anyone else I could see myself voting really. Might need to do some rereading to find a candidate I really like, for now faust's case on WW is my favorite.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 28, 2014, 07:01:49 pm
Crickets! And I'm the biggest wagon, yikes.

I don't know why "feeding silver lines is scummy", but since he isn't telling us anything, all we can do is speculate. I don't know if I've been any more hedgy than usual, day 1 all your reads are still kind of fuzzy (see what I did there?).

I'm emerging with a stronger and stronger non-mafia (town, or maybe SK) read on SS. Joth, as I explained also a town read, although lighter. Faust has made sense to me, small town read for that.

I guess anyone else I could see myself voting really. Might need to do some rereading to find a candidate I really like, for now faust's case on WW is my favorite.

I thought it was your case first...
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 28, 2014, 07:08:43 pm
So, I'm rereading, trying to make sense of all the crazy stuff that happened. A timeline:

#61: silverspawn claims VT
#74: Ichi wants to know why silverspawn doesn't want to talk about his claim
#78: Eevee votes Ichi in response
#86: Eevee asks why scum!silverspawn would want to draw attention like that
#87: ashersky says he might have a plan
#90: Jimmmmm votes silverspawn
#100: ashersky "doesn't like the claim"
#119: joth doesn't think silverspawn is scum
#132: WW presses silverspawn to talk about his claim
#145: ADK votes Ichi for hedging on silverspawn
#147: ADK proposes the SK!silverspawn theory, votes him
#149: WW says it "makes some sense"
#152: Ichi agrees with ADK
#158: WW explains my vote on silverspawn
#166: WW votes Ichi
#169: silverspawn presents a very odd view on ethics
#170: silverspawn votes Ichi
#175: WW says I could be Ichi's partner
#181: joth votes Ichi, L-1
#190: WW asks Ichi what he'll flip
#195: WW unvotes
#211: joth unvotes
#225: WW admits to having known Ichi was not hammered when pressing him to claim
#235: ADK votes Ichi

Well... I don't think joth was particularly scummy here (neither townie though). Ichi I still feel could be scum. But who really troubles me is WW. He does basically the same things that Ichi was found scummy for in the first place (rolefishing with silverspawn, sheeping/hedging the SK!silverspawn case), then pushes Ichi for being too much within his meta and actually presses him to claim when he knows he isn't lynched. What's more, he does all this without getting even a single vote. WW's behaviour is easily the most scummy I've seen in my reread.

Vote: Witherweaver
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on September 28, 2014, 09:36:47 pm
Ash makes sense, so I'll sheep him. Or maybe IG again. Noone seems very towny at all. vote: eevee
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 28, 2014, 09:56:20 pm
What Eevee is doing seems logical/honest to me. I'm in a weird position here, but I really don't find it scummy. Maybe it's because I've never seen scum!Eevee. But I'm not voting.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 28, 2014, 09:59:45 pm
Ash makes sense, so I'll sheep him. Or maybe IG again. Noone seems very towny at all. vote: eevee
I literally feel like I'm your #1 suspect in every game we play.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 28, 2014, 11:06:38 pm
I feel like some players are flying under the radar here, not in terms of how much they're posting but in terms of scrutiny they've been under. I'm kind of one of them, but I'd also point out faust, jim, ash. I don't want to lynch ash day one on principle but I think that the focus here has been on a few players and that's not good for town.

So I guess, out of those players:

ash seems like his regular self, and he's VLA so I don't expect too high activity from him.
faust is difficult for me to read, but I think he's doing a very good job of blending in, so a few scum points for him.
jim's another VLA but seems like he might be lurking beyond that.
Hydrad wasn't on my original list but he also I think has avoided some scrutiny.

I still like my Ichi vote, for how he acted before, during and after his fake lynch, but I guess I'd toss those points out there for consideration.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 28, 2014, 11:23:48 pm
I agree with your points ADK. Though I don't think XP has gotten much suspicion either from what I remember.
Neither he nor Jimmmmm were around for my wagon though.

Still don't get much of the votes on Eevee. And not sure what to make of silver here either. Blah, I feel like something else has to happen to get this game rolling again. Some town points go to everyone that's at least around and posting a fair amount I guess.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on September 29, 2014, 08:07:19 am
Ash makes sense, so I'll sheep him. Or maybe IG again. Noone seems very towny at all. vote: eevee
I literally feel like I'm your #1 suspect in every game we play.

Sorry - it's just that you generally (like when I'm spectating) look really towny to me, so maybe I'm overcompensating.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on September 29, 2014, 08:08:59 am
And yeah, nobody really has suspected me yet, even though I've lurked a lot this game. Seems strange, but I'm fine with it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 29, 2014, 08:10:52 am
And yeah, nobody really has suspected me yet, even though I've lurked a lot this game. Seems strange, but I'm fine with it.
It's been easy to avoid scrutiny, because IG and silver have been dominating the day so much.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 29, 2014, 11:10:55 am
I feel like some players are flying under the radar here, not in terms of how much they're posting but in terms of scrutiny they've been under. I'm kind of one of them, but I'd also point out faust, jim, ash. I don't want to lynch ash day one on principle but I think that the focus here has been on a few players and that's not good for town.

So I guess, out of those players:

ash seems like his regular self, and he's VLA so I don't expect too high activity from him.
faust is difficult for me to read, but I think he's doing a very good job of blending in, so a few scum points for him.
jim's another VLA but seems like he might be lurking beyond that.
Hydrad wasn't on my original list but he also I think has avoided some scrutiny.

I still like my Ichi vote, for how he acted before, during and after his fake lynch, but I guess I'd toss those points out there for consideration.

Phew, I always get accused of "blending in"; maybe I should claim VT more often.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on September 29, 2014, 11:25:00 am
Not completely up to date yet. I find these two posts by Ichi scummy:

Well IVote: Ichimaru, that's so scummy.
?
It's almost like half "creating suspicion where no suspicion is due" and half "blatant rolefishing".
Where no suspicion is due?

Who claims VT immediately day 1? This is incredibly suspicious behavior. I don't entirely get your comment about it "leading down a dark route", but that doesn't sound as if you approve of it.

PPE: 7

I looked back over people's reactions to silver's claim and Ichi stood out as someone who said/implied that it was scummy but didn't actually vote for silverspawn. So vote: Ichimaru Gin.
That's because I was (and am) policy voting Jimmmmm. I just woke up and haven't checked to see if he's changed his avatar yet.

Checking reveals that he has changed his avatar back, so I am free to vote elsewhere now. Didn't you policy vote Jimmmmm as well for the same reason? We're probably in different time zones though, cause when I went to bed, he was still Robz.

Oh wait, I get it. Silverspawn is the SK, and he wants to avoid being targeted by mafia.

Vote: silverspawn

ppe: that was a joke vote, not a policy vote, and I'm very suspicious that you're actually claiming it as such. But what do you think about my theory on SS?
My vote was about as close to a policy vote as I've ever done. It's confusing as heck having a fake Robz running around.

I find your theory on SS highly plausible. It would explain his refusal to give reasoning for his "claim" and him claiming in the first place. He had to have known that he would get heat for it though. The SK win condition seems pretty chancy given that if some mafia die first, they have no chance of winning. So maybe he just decided to have fun with things.

PPE: I am ready to vote for silverspawn. I find this a little odd, since it's like SK hunting--but I think ADK's theory makes the most sense so far.

PPE: more

Just getting the sense that he's trying too hard to come up with reasons to do things. It's relatively minor, but it's a scum vibe, and enough for a Vote: Ichi for now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 29, 2014, 12:08:13 pm
Phew, I always get accused of "blending in"; maybe I should claim VT more often.

If you want any further strategic advise from a real pro, just ask.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 29, 2014, 12:35:16 pm
Hmm are you guys thinking joth is town because of his meta that I don't know? Or for other reasons. I find it interesting that no one else seems to think joth is scummy. Maybe I'm just missing something. Other then joth though I like fausts case on WW. I can see a couple town points in seeing if IG makes a town slip. But its so much better for scum if IG made a PR slip there. I think it was a more scummy move then town so I'm going to

Vote: WW
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 29, 2014, 12:38:11 pm
Hmm are you guys thinking joth is town because of his meta that I don't know? Or for other reasons. I find it interesting that no one else seems to think joth is scummy. Maybe I'm just missing something. Other then joth though I like fausts case on WW. I can see a couple town points in seeing if IG makes a town slip. But its so much better for scum if IG made a PR slip there. I think it was a more scummy move then town so I'm going to

Vote: WW

Terrible logic, try again.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 29, 2014, 12:38:53 pm
We ask town to claim when they're at L-1.  How was this not better?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 29, 2014, 12:48:27 pm
We ask town to claim when they're at L-1.  How was this not better?

Because at L-1 they might get lynched if they don't claim in those situations. IG wasn't really in danger of getting lynched yet really. he got to L-1 but if people knew he was that close no one was going to hammer. He didn't need to claim at all in that situation.

What ended up happening was trying to get IG to claim day 1. which doesn't really help town at all. If he said he was a PR then all scum does is kill him that night and we lost a PR right away.

I think claiming on day 1 is usually really bad as town will almost never get to use their power and scum just hits all of them. Thats why I think its scummy. If IG was actually in danger of getting lynched then maybe a claim is ok. but not when he is totally fine.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 29, 2014, 12:51:14 pm
Without posting a full reads list, I can say that I find WW very towny. But I have never seen scum!WW, so I may just be fooled easily.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 29, 2014, 12:52:24 pm
He was at L-1.  Had the whole "I thought I got lynched" thing not happened, he would be asked to claim at some point.  If he claims PR as town, scum knows he's telling the truth, so they kill him.  We don't know if he is or not.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 29, 2014, 12:55:20 pm
Your explanation doesn't make sense Hydrad.  How could Ichi be okay?  Are you saying all those voting against him were just kidding?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 29, 2014, 01:39:37 pm
Your explanation doesn't make sense Hydrad.  How could Ichi be okay?  Are you saying all those voting against him were just kidding?

I'm saying he was at L-1. But if someone just said this is Ichi at L-1. I don't think anyone was willing to hammer or anything at that point. people would of either backed off since its so early in the day or just left him at L-1. I think there was little danger in him getting lynched that early unless there was a derphammer.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 29, 2014, 01:58:31 pm
Your explanation doesn't make sense Hydrad.  How could Ichi be okay?  Are you saying all those voting against him were just kidding?

I'm saying he was at L-1. But if someone just said this is Ichi at L-1. I don't think anyone was willing to hammer or anything at that point. people would of either backed off since its so early in the day or just left him at L-1. I think there was little danger in him getting lynched that early unless there was a derphammer.

You don't think it would have come up later, even if the wagon died down then?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 29, 2014, 02:04:56 pm
Your explanation doesn't make sense Hydrad.  How could Ichi be okay?  Are you saying all those voting against him were just kidding?

I'm saying he was at L-1. But if someone just said this is Ichi at L-1. I don't think anyone was willing to hammer or anything at that point. people would of either backed off since its so early in the day or just left him at L-1. I think there was little danger in him getting lynched that early unless there was a derphammer.

You don't think it would have come up later, even if the wagon died down then?

Ya there could be a possibility that his wagon dies down and then comes back and he gets back to L-1. Then he could claim if needed and might save himself. But it might not of been needed at all so I don't like the idea of trying to get him to claim early when It wasn't needed.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 29, 2014, 02:07:24 pm
Your explanation doesn't make sense Hydrad.  How could Ichi be okay?  Are you saying all those voting against him were just kidding?

I'm saying he was at L-1. But if someone just said this is Ichi at L-1. I don't think anyone was willing to hammer or anything at that point. people would of either backed off since its so early in the day or just left him at L-1. I think there was little danger in him getting lynched that early unless there was a derphammer.

You don't think it would have come up later, even if the wagon died down then?

Ya there could be a possibility that his wagon dies down and then comes back and he gets back to L-1. Then he could claim if needed and might save himself. But it might not of been needed at all so I don't like the idea of trying to get him to claim early when It wasn't needed.

As I said before, I was trying to get him talking for info.  Him saying his role was a risk I was willing to take.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 29, 2014, 03:47:33 pm
Your explanation doesn't make sense Hydrad.  How could Ichi be okay?  Are you saying all those voting against him were just kidding?

I'm saying he was at L-1. But if someone just said this is Ichi at L-1. I don't think anyone was willing to hammer or anything at that point. people would of either backed off since its so early in the day or just left him at L-1. I think there was little danger in him getting lynched that early unless there was a derphammer.

You don't think it would have come up later, even if the wagon died down then?

Ya there could be a possibility that his wagon dies down and then comes back and he gets back to L-1. Then he could claim if needed and might save himself. But it might not of been needed at all so I don't like the idea of trying to get him to claim early when It wasn't needed.

As I said before, I was trying to get him talking for info.  Him saying his role was a risk I was willing to take.
I stand by my decision to not claim--you would have found out when I flipped anyway. Essentially, you lied in order to try and extract information from me, which I 100% view as anti-town behavior. Since it looks like you don't view that behavior as anti-town, I think it's a perfectly plausible scum move on your part.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 29, 2014, 04:00:07 pm
Your explanation doesn't make sense Hydrad.  How could Ichi be okay?  Are you saying all those voting against him were just kidding?

I'm saying he was at L-1. But if someone just said this is Ichi at L-1. I don't think anyone was willing to hammer or anything at that point. people would of either backed off since its so early in the day or just left him at L-1. I think there was little danger in him getting lynched that early unless there was a derphammer.

You don't think it would have come up later, even if the wagon died down then?

Ya there could be a possibility that his wagon dies down and then comes back and he gets back to L-1. Then he could claim if needed and might save himself. But it might not of been needed at all so I don't like the idea of trying to get him to claim early when It wasn't needed.

As I said before, I was trying to get him talking for info.  Him saying his role was a risk I was willing to take.
I stand by my decision to not claim--you would have found out when I flipped anyway. Essentially, you lied in order to try and extract information from me, which I 100% view as anti-town behavior. Since it looks like you don't view that behavior as anti-town, I think it's a perfectly plausible scum move on your part.

You can view it as anti-town, but you're wrong.  A better argument would be that scum!me was acting in a pro-town way for town points.

Figuring out if you're town or scum is clearly in our best interest.

And I didn't lie.  I withheld information, something town players do all the time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 29, 2014, 04:01:44 pm
The information I was withholding was also public knowledge; just because you weren't aware of it doesn't make it any less public.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 29, 2014, 04:14:07 pm
I feel like some players are flying under the radar here, not in terms of how much they're posting but in terms of scrutiny they've been under. I'm kind of one of them, but I'd also point out faust, jim, ash. I don't want to lynch ash day one on principle but I think that the focus here has been on a few players and that's not good for town.

So I guess, out of those players:

ash seems like his regular self, and he's VLA so I don't expect too high activity from him.
faust is difficult for me to read, but I think he's doing a very good job of blending in, so a few scum points for him.
jim's another VLA but seems like he might be lurking beyond that.
Hydrad wasn't on my original list but he also I think has avoided some scrutiny.

I still like my Ichi vote, for how he acted before, during and after his fake lynch, but I guess I'd toss those points out there for consideration.

Phew, I always get accused of "blending in"; maybe I should claim VT more often.

Probably because you're fairly calm and rational and don't do crazy things, really.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 29, 2014, 04:14:27 pm
But I have never seen scum!WW

 :o
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on September 29, 2014, 04:16:14 pm
On the Ichi thing- I think it's misleading to say that WW was trying to get Ichi to claim a PR, he was trying to get Ichi to reveal information regarding his alignment since Ichi had thought he was lynched. Which I don't think was scummy at all, I showed up a little late to the party but I can see myself doing something similar.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 29, 2014, 04:16:32 pm
But I have never seen scum!WW

 :o

To be fair I havn't either. My first game I joined was right when WW stopped being scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 29, 2014, 04:21:00 pm
ADK defending and not accusing me... he must be scum!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 29, 2014, 05:27:22 pm
So.. can anyone create a good narrative for Ichi's ''lynch'' behavior, either town or scum?  I read it and I think "town wouldn't really react that way," but then I think "scum wouldn't really react that way," which puts me basically at a loss.

Also, we need some, like, good cases.  Wasn't that Eevee dude scummy?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 29, 2014, 05:28:59 pm
So.. can anyone create a good narrative for Ichi's ''lynch'' behavior, either town or scum?  I read it and I think "town wouldn't really react that way," but then I think "scum wouldn't really react that way," which puts me basically at a loss.

Also, we need some, like, good cases.  Wasn't that Eevee dude scummy?

I saw it as frustrated town IG angry that he got lynched instantly for no big reason and no real warning.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 29, 2014, 05:54:01 pm
So.. can anyone create a good narrative for Ichi's ''lynch'' behavior, either town or scum?  I read it and I think "town wouldn't really react that way," but then I think "scum wouldn't really react that way," which puts me basically at a loss.

Also, we need some, like, good cases.  Wasn't that Eevee dude scummy?

I saw it as frustrated town IG angry that he got lynched instantly for no big reason and no real warning.

"town" seems completely arbitrary in there.  Why not frustrated scum IG angry that he got lynched instantly for no big reason and no real warning?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 29, 2014, 06:00:52 pm
So.. can anyone create a good narrative for Ichi's ''lynch'' behavior, either town or scum?  I read it and I think "town wouldn't really react that way," but then I think "scum wouldn't really react that way," which puts me basically at a loss.

Also, we need some, like, good cases.  Wasn't that Eevee dude scummy?

I saw it as frustrated town IG angry that he got lynched instantly for no big reason and no real warning.

"town" seems completely arbitrary in there.  Why not frustrated scum IG angry that he got lynched instantly for no big reason and no real warning?

because I got a town vibe from IG before the "lynch" happened. Everyone else seems to think his defense was crazy but in dice mafia the same kinda thing happened where everyone was saying he was defending to much on day 1 and he ended up being town there to. This is the same vibe I get from that game and feel it is frustrated town IG.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 29, 2014, 06:02:23 pm
Okay.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on September 29, 2014, 07:08:05 pm
Can we just lynch IG or at least someone? Nobody's close enough to being lynched for anything to happen.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on September 29, 2014, 08:08:11 pm
Can we just lynch IG or at least someone? Nobody's close enough to being lynched for anything to happen.

I was having this exact same thought.  I mean, not IG specifically, but a lynch needs to happen.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start
Post by: mail-mi on September 29, 2014, 08:16:01 pm
Vote Count 1.6

Ichimaru (3): ADK, joth, Jimmmmm
Witherweaver (3): faust, Eevee, Hydrad
Eevee (3): Witherweaver, ashersky, xerxes,
 
Not Voting (2): ichimaru, silver

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day1 will last 10 days. The deadline for Day1 will be Friday, October 3 at 7 pm forum time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 30, 2014, 01:33:52 am
I think IG is by far the best case so far. I'll definitely do him.

I'll also consider Hydrad or XP.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 30, 2014, 03:19:20 am
I think IG is by far the best case so far. I'll definitely do him.

I'll also consider Hydrad or XP.

Well then, vote. We need to get some wagons rolling at some point. With three players at three votes, those not voting should take stances, or else this will stall.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 30, 2014, 05:32:45 am
alright

vote: IG
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 30, 2014, 05:33:00 am
*bold

vote: IG
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 30, 2014, 05:33:16 am
this is L-2
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 30, 2014, 12:38:27 pm
silverspawn, do you care to explain why you unvoted Ichi before and are now revoting?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 30, 2014, 12:45:15 pm
silverspawn, do you care to explain why you unvoted Ichi before and are now revoting?

The first vote was purely for pressure and didn't have anything to do with my read on him. But as it happens, I actually do find him scummy, so I'm voting for real now.

The deadline is coming closer, so it's time for serious votes. Otherwise, we don't get anywhere.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 30, 2014, 12:50:44 pm
silverspawn, do you care to explain why you unvoted Ichi before and are now revoting?

The first vote was purely for pressure and didn't have anything to do with my read on him. But as it happens, I actually do find him scummy, so I'm voting for real now.

The deadline is coming closer, so it's time for serious votes. Otherwise, we don't get anywhere.

What is scummy about Ichi?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on September 30, 2014, 12:57:52 pm
I also find him scummy, in that he isn't towny.vote:IG

Also, if he flips scum, I'm looking at faust.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 30, 2014, 12:58:15 pm
This is a very strange question, after what has happened.

I agree with what WW (and others) said here. His reaction to the supposed hammer didn't scream town to me.

Also, this quote

Only one way to find out. . . ;D

it looks pretty nullish, but I feel like it's slightly more likely for scum to make it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on September 30, 2014, 01:00:22 pm
But the WIFOM here is insane.
Only for scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on September 30, 2014, 01:01:38 pm
Well IVote: Ichimaru, that's so scummy.
?
It's almost like half "creating suspicion where no suspicion is due" and half "blatant rolefishing".
Where no suspicion is due?

Who claims VT immediately day 1? This is incredibly suspicious behavior. I don't entirely get your comment about it "leading down a dark route", but that doesn't sound as if you approve of it.

PPE: 7

I looked back over people's reactions to silver's claim and Ichi stood out as someone who said/implied that it was scummy but didn't actually vote for silverspawn. So vote: Ichimaru Gin.
That's because I was (and am) policy voting Jimmmmm. I just woke up and haven't checked to see if he's changed his avatar yet.

Checking reveals that he has changed his avatar back, so I am free to vote elsewhere now. Didn't you policy vote Jimmmmm as well for the same reason? We're probably in different time zones though, cause when I went to bed, he was still Robz.

Hmm. Something about this looks suspicious.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on September 30, 2014, 01:01:58 pm
Also, it's pretty obvious, but L-1.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on September 30, 2014, 01:04:38 pm
doublevotehammer: IG
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 30, 2014, 01:05:49 pm
Just woke up. I am at L-1

Wow, guess I'll be derphammered twice this game.
I've said what I've said in my defense. If that hasn't convinced you or the multiple insane ramp ups of my wagon, I don't know.

I still don't like WW trying to force a claim out of me under false pretenses--no matter how he tries to defend it. So vote: WW
I will repeat that I stand by my decision to not claim. I really can't believe the lazy votes on me, and all I ask is that people look at the poor votes on me.

PPE: vote: XP

OMGUS for getting no suspicion, making poor votes on me and then trying to fabricate more suspicion on me with vague unfounded statements.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on September 30, 2014, 01:07:31 pm
Hmmm. That sounds really towny.  unvote
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on September 30, 2014, 01:09:56 pm
Also, that went a little quickly. Let's see, faust has been acting a little scummy. But only in relation to IG. Actually, maybe that could have been fabricated. vote: IG
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 30, 2014, 01:10:47 pm
Hmmm. That sounds really towny.  unvote
Was this just sarcasm, because I'm not entirely getting what you mean here and in your other post.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 30, 2014, 01:13:18 pm
Also, that went a little quickly. Let's see, faust has been acting a little scummy. But only in relation to IG. Actually, maybe that could have been fabricated. vote: IG

?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 30, 2014, 01:43:35 pm
Vote: Xerxes
His last few posts that seemed like sort of quietly slipping onto the wagon and got me to rereading him, and wow has he been lurking, to the magnitude of only having 15 posts in the entire game. All his votes have been on growing wagons.

I don't know, reread him for yourself, but he has done a masterful job of avoiding all scrutiny despite playing quite scummy.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on September 30, 2014, 01:57:13 pm
Yeah, I have in fact been lurking, but that's because I was busy thinking about the other game. Now that that's boring I can lynch scum here.

And no, that's wasn't sarcasm. Your L-1 does in fact look towny, but I'm kind of worried about losing scum at the last minute.

Looks likes there's someone more scummy now, though: Eevee.

I've learnt from experience that scum tries to mislynch me a lot. In fact, so much it feels like a valid scumtell. Of course, now I won't be able to use this in the future, but I'm trying to win this game. Also, I don't think opportunistic voting in the sense of trying to get a lynch and voting people less than maximally scummy is a scumtell, but eevee appears to try to start a lynch on me that IG supports because of being scared, which is opportunistic, so he's being hypocritical.

vote: Eevee
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on September 30, 2014, 01:58:08 pm
Vote: Xerxes
His last few posts that seemed like sort of quietly slipping onto the wagon and got me to rereading him, and wow has he been lurking, to the magnitude of only having 15 posts in the entire game. All his votes have been on growing wagons.

I don't know, reread him for yourself, but he has done a masterful job of avoiding all scrutiny despite playing quite scummy.

Quietly?!?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 30, 2014, 02:22:44 pm
Vote: Xerxes
His last few posts that seemed like sort of quietly slipping onto the wagon and got me to rereading him, and wow has he been lurking, to the magnitude of only having 15 posts in the entire game. All his votes have been on growing wagons.

I don't know, reread him for yourself, but he has done a masterful job of avoiding all scrutiny despite playing quite scummy.

Does scum post "And yeah, nobody really has suspected me yet, even though I've lurked a lot this game. Seems strange, but I'm fine with it."? Seems ballsy.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 30, 2014, 02:25:29 pm
I agree Xerxes has been lurky and hasn't done anything noteworthy other than being really antsy to lynch IG, without actually presenting any case on him at all.

But I just don't believe that scum would be that obvious. I still like IG today, revisit XP tomorrow.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 30, 2014, 03:20:51 pm
You also sheeped ash on me immediately, and not only do I know the case is wrong, I found the reasons flimsy as well.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 30, 2014, 03:21:50 pm
Vote: Xerxes
His last few posts that seemed like sort of quietly slipping onto the wagon and got me to rereading him, and wow has he been lurking, to the magnitude of only having 15 posts in the entire game. All his votes have been on growing wagons.

I don't know, reread him for yourself, but he has done a masterful job of avoiding all scrutiny despite playing quite scummy.

Does scum post "And yeah, nobody really has suspected me yet, even though I've lurked a lot this game. Seems strange, but I'm fine with it."? Seems ballsy.
I think they do. Scum is very self-conscious. People used to find "pre-emptively calling yourself out for lurking" very scummy in the past, not sure why that's not a thing anymore.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 30, 2014, 03:26:58 pm
Vote: Xerxes
His last few posts that seemed like sort of quietly slipping onto the wagon and got me to rereading him, and wow has he been lurking, to the magnitude of only having 15 posts in the entire game. All his votes have been on growing wagons.

I don't know, reread him for yourself, but he has done a masterful job of avoiding all scrutiny despite playing quite scummy.

Does scum post "And yeah, nobody really has suspected me yet, even though I've lurked a lot this game. Seems strange, but I'm fine with it."? Seems ballsy.
I think they do. Scum is very self-conscious. People used to find "pre-emptively calling yourself out for lurking" very scummy in the past, not sure why that's not a thing anymore.

It's absolutely not how I would play scum -- because why give everyone else ideas? But I can accept that other people might play it that way.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 30, 2014, 03:56:14 pm
Yeah, I have in fact been lurking, but that's because I was busy thinking about the other game. Now that that's boring I can lynch scum here.

And no, that's wasn't sarcasm. Your L-1 does in fact look towny, but I'm kind of worried about losing scum at the last minute.

Looks likes there's someone more scummy now, though: Eevee.

I've learnt from experience that scum tries to mislynch me a lot. In fact, so much it feels like a valid scumtell. Of course, now I won't be able to use this in the future, but I'm trying to win this game. Also, I don't think opportunistic voting in the sense of trying to get a lynch and voting people less than maximally scummy is a scumtell, but eevee appears to try to start a lynch on me that IG supports because of being scared, which is opportunistic, so he's being hypocritical.

vote: Eevee
This is really just a glorified OMGUS, by the way. I don't think it's fair to characterize you as an easy mislynch when you have 0 votes this close to the deadline. If I wanted an easy mislynch, surely I too would be aboard the Ichi wagon (unless he was my partner, or course).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 30, 2014, 04:05:24 pm
Don't we still have 4 days to think about this? I know its coming up soon but I feel like people are a bit more rushed then they need to be.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 30, 2014, 04:29:00 pm
Don't we still have 4 days to think about this? I know its coming up soon but I feel like people are a bit more rushed then they need to be.

LOL. Why does everyone think it's protown for lynches to happen at the last possible second? Deadline chaos = sloppiness scum can exploit. What's going to magically happen in 4 days anyway?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 30, 2014, 04:31:47 pm
Don't we still have 4 days to think about this? I know its coming up soon but I feel like people are a bit more rushed then they need to be.

LOL. Why does everyone think it's protown for lynches to happen at the last possible second? Deadline chaos = sloppiness scum can exploit. What's going to magically happen in 4 days anyway?

I don't think we have to wait till last second. But I feel like people are a bit to worried? I don't know. when i read these posts at first I thought the day was ending like tomorrow. I'm not saying we should wait till the last second but I do think we can wait a couple days still. I guess I'm hoping there could still be some info that will help us find scum today.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 30, 2014, 04:41:20 pm
Don't we still have 4 days to think about this? I know its coming up soon but I feel like people are a bit more rushed then they need to be.

LOL. Why does everyone think it's protown for lynches to happen at the last possible second? Deadline chaos = sloppiness scum can exploit. What's going to magically happen in 4 days anyway?

I so much agree with this post.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on September 30, 2014, 04:49:48 pm
The WW wagon doesn't seem to be picking off... which is a shame, because it's a good case. Anyway, I'm hoping to do a reread tomorrow or so to figure where to place my vote.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 30, 2014, 04:52:10 pm
The WW wagon doesn't seem to be picking off... which is a shame, because it's a good case. Anyway, I'm hoping to do a reread tomorrow or so to figure where to place my vote.
[/quote

Eevee is a good option.

I'm also thinking Hydrad seems to be white knighting.

I can still see Ichi going either way.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 30, 2014, 04:52:26 pm
Sigh, moving out of quote:

Eevee is a good option.

I'm also thinking Hydrad seems to be white knighting.

I can still see Ichi going either way.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 30, 2014, 04:58:27 pm
Sigh, moving out of quote:

Eevee is a good option.

I'm also thinking Hydrad seems to be white knighting.

I can still see Ichi going either way.

I'm unfamiliar with the white knighting term?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 30, 2014, 05:01:41 pm
Means you're defending people.  It's easy to do as scum, because you know a player is town.  Then when they flip town you're all like "see I told you guys that was a terrible lynch!"  I have a tendency to do it.

Particularly, here you seem a little bit confident that Ichi is town.  Moreso than an uniformed you should be.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 30, 2014, 05:03:16 pm
Also, as scum you don't want to be on an easy mislynch, because that's the first place people look (e.g., Ichi being "100% certain there is scum on your wagon").  So, you have to avoid the easy wagon, so you have reasons, so you end up defending town.

If you are scum, I believe Ichi would be town.   The other direction doesn't apply though.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 30, 2014, 05:09:27 pm
Means you're defending people.  It's easy to do as scum, because you know a player is town.  Then when they flip town you're all like "see I told you guys that was a terrible lynch!"  I have a tendency to do it.

Particularly, here you seem a little bit confident that Ichi is town.  Moreso than an uniformed you should be.

Ah interesting. I guess its because this feels so similar to how ichi was in dice mafia so this is the first time I've played with someone in a similar situation to when I saw them before. To me it feels exactly to how ichi acted in day 1 there and unless hes really good at replicating his meta I think this is town ichi.

I guess this white knighting already got me in trouble in zelda mafia where part of the case was that I was too good at predicting who was town in the first few days. I find it much easier to see if people are town then if they are scum in this game. I've almost never felt 100% confident in a scum lynch but had pretty close to 100% confidence that its a towny people are lynching.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on September 30, 2014, 05:12:27 pm
Means you're defending people.  It's easy to do as scum, because you know a player is town.  Then when they flip town you're all like "see I told you guys that was a terrible lynch!"  I have a tendency to do it.

Particularly, here you seem a little bit confident that Ichi is town.  Moreso than an uniformed you should be.

Ah interesting. I guess its because this feels so similar to how ichi was in dice mafia so this is the first time I've played with someone in a similar situation to when I saw them before. To me it feels exactly to how ichi acted in day 1 there and unless hes really good at replicating his meta I think this is town ichi.

I guess this white knighting already got me in trouble in zelda mafia where part of the case was that I was too good at predicting who was town in the first few days. I find it much easier to see if people are town then if they are scum in this game. I've almost never felt 100% confident in a scum lynch but had pretty close to 100% confidence that its a towny people are lynching.

Oh good then. We'll just run eveyrone up to L1 and then lynch whoever Hydrad isn't 100% confident is town.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 30, 2014, 05:12:50 pm
Means you're defending people.  It's easy to do as scum, because you know a player is town.  Then when they flip town you're all like "see I told you guys that was a terrible lynch!"  I have a tendency to do it.

Particularly, here you seem a little bit confident that Ichi is town.  Moreso than an uniformed you should be.

Ah interesting. I guess its because this feels so similar to how ichi was in dice mafia so this is the first time I've played with someone in a similar situation to when I saw them before. To me it feels exactly to how ichi acted in day 1 there and unless hes really good at replicating his meta I think this is town ichi.

I guess this white knighting already got me in trouble in zelda mafia where part of the case was that I was too good at predicting who was town in the first few days. I find it much easier to see if people are town then if they are scum in this game. I've almost never felt 100% confident in a scum lynch but had pretty close to 100% confidence that its a towny people are lynching.

Oh good then. We'll just run eveyrone up to L1 and then lynch whoever Hydrad isn't 100% confident is town.

Sweet.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 30, 2014, 05:18:24 pm
The WW wagon doesn't seem to be picking off... which is a shame, because it's a good case. Anyway, I'm hoping to do a reread tomorrow or so to figure where to place my vote.
I'm not opposed to switching back. Others, thoughts on WW?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 30, 2014, 05:19:32 pm
The WW wagon doesn't seem to be picking off... which is a shame, because it's a good case. Anyway, I'm hoping to do a reread tomorrow or so to figure where to place my vote.
I'm not opposed to switching back. Others, thoughts on WW?

I'm opposed.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 30, 2014, 05:21:19 pm
Also, as scum you don't want to be on an easy mislynch, because that's the first place people look (e.g., Ichi being "100% certain there is scum on your wagon").  So, you have to avoid the easy wagon, so you have reasons, so you end up defending town.

If you are scum, I believe Ichi would be town.   The other direction doesn't apply though.
Okay, I like this line of thinking, and it makes you seem townier to me.

Why do you think I'm scum? We've usually done excellent at identifying each other as town, so it feels weird to be at odds with you.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 30, 2014, 05:25:07 pm
Also, as scum you don't want to be on an easy mislynch, because that's the first place people look (e.g., Ichi being "100% certain there is scum on your wagon").  So, you have to avoid the easy wagon, so you have reasons, so you end up defending town.

If you are scum, I believe Ichi would be town.   The other direction doesn't apply though.
Okay, I like this line of thinking, and it makes you seem townier to me.

Why do you think I'm scum? We've usually done excellent at identifying each other as town, so it feels weird to be at odds with you.

Originally it was a post that seemed careful and hedgey.. then you got called out for it, and I didn't find anything about your response all that convincing. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on September 30, 2014, 05:28:10 pm
Means you're defending people.  It's easy to do as scum, because you know a player is town.  Then when they flip town you're all like "see I told you guys that was a terrible lynch!"  I have a tendency to do it.

Particularly, here you seem a little bit confident that Ichi is town.  Moreso than an uniformed you should be.

Ah interesting. I guess its because this feels so similar to how ichi was in dice mafia so this is the first time I've played with someone in a similar situation to when I saw them before. To me it feels exactly to how ichi acted in day 1 there and unless hes really good at replicating his meta I think this is town ichi.

I guess this white knighting already got me in trouble in zelda mafia where part of the case was that I was too good at predicting who was town in the first few days. I find it much easier to see if people are town then if they are scum in this game. I've almost never felt 100% confident in a scum lynch but had pretty close to 100% confidence that its a towny people are lynching.

Oh good then. We'll just run eveyrone up to L1 and then lynch whoever Hydrad isn't 100% confident is town.

I worded that wrong. I've quite a few times where I've been pretty sure if someones town or not. But its not every lynch that happens.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 30, 2014, 05:28:56 pm
I guess I'm hedgy in that I don't have a strong opinion about IG, but I don't see anything else that matches your description (and I'm not scum, I'm not going to fabricate an opinion on IG, obviously).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on September 30, 2014, 05:29:46 pm
I guess I'm hedgy in that I don't have a strong opinion about IG, but I don't see anything else that matches your description (and I'm not scum, I'm not going to fabricate an opinion on IG, obviously).

Also I don't have any other great ideas :(
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 30, 2014, 05:30:44 pm
I guess I'm hedgy in that I don't have a strong opinion about IG, but I don't see anything else that matches your description (and I'm not scum, I'm not going to fabricate an opinion on IG, obviously).

Also I don't have any other great ideas :(
Reread xerxes and see what you think. Doesn't take long.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on September 30, 2014, 11:43:51 pm
It's not good that the day has stalled, but I'm not sure if there's a ton to be done at that point. You guys are pretty much exaggerating what Hydrad was saying--in the same way people are exaggerating how close the deadline is.
You can put off my mislynch for another 2 days with 2 days left over if you still want to lynch me. With this little total discussion D1, there's room for a lot more.
I see a lot of people calling townie stuff scummy and scummy stuff townie, which frankly is confusing me. It's getting late and not much more to say since nothing much has really happened. I like my vote on XP and hate to see joth trying to end this day so quickly. I understand that D1 can be annoying cause there's really no concrete information like flips, but it is important to have discussion and info to refer back to. Although we do have some strong sentiments regarding my near mislynch and silver's claim, there's not much else.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on September 30, 2014, 11:51:04 pm
I see a lot of people calling townie stuff scummy and scummy stuff townie, which frankly is confusing me.
These are the kind of things you want to call out! What are you referring to?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 01, 2014, 12:01:19 am
I see a lot of people calling townie stuff scummy and scummy stuff townie, which frankly is confusing me.
These are the kind of things you want to call out! What are you referring to?
-Joth saying derphammering is townie and acting like ending the day super early is a good idea
-WW defending him pushing me to claim even though I wasn't hammered
-No one really picking up on XP's hugely scummy behavior: lurking, sheeping votes, joining easy wagons and pushing them, not being around for important events like silver's claim--and not really commenting on them.
-People finding you (Eevee) scummy for reasons that make no sense to me
-Everyone just accepting silver's claim

I don't know, most of that behavior that I list makes very little sense to me, and I feel like scum is just getting away with blatantly sheeping my wagon and trying to mislynch me for the second time today.
So people can just claim VT right away and get virtually no pressure, that must be great. I understand that I distracted from it, but silver's  claim is still a very important event of this day that people seem to be ignoring.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 01, 2014, 02:07:51 am
The XP case is looking strong. I have to reread him in James Bond Mafia, but right now I think he's almost as good as IG.

One of these two should be our lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 01, 2014, 09:47:25 am
XP always feels like town!XP to me.

Ichi and Hydrad always feel like scum to me.

The things XP always gets called out for are traits he always displays as town, so I tend to always see him that way. I don't have much of a gut town instinct on him here.. more, like I think, "would he talk about how suspicious or scummy he is as scum?"

I wouldn't oppose XP. The only player I have a real town read on is Joth.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 01, 2014, 10:09:26 am
Doing a complete reread.

Reads from this, town to scum:

faust

silverspawn - VT claim. I kind of don't think he would do that if he had a partner, so if he's scum, it's either Traitor or SK. That's enough to make me not want to lynch him today.
Ichimaru - suggests silverspawn is lying. I somehow don't think scum does that... thinks maybe, but doesn't post stuff like that. It's not good for town to post it, but I think it's more likely to come from town. His defensiveness and unwillingness to claim does not point towards him being scum for me.

joth - the vote on Ichi was sheepy. Seems a bit careless and I believe that's more likely to come from town.
ADK - starts SK hunting. Overall his posts seem like genuine scumhunting to me though.
Eevee - after all the Ichi craziness, says his flip will provide information... that is always a somewhat scummy motive for a lynch. Sheeps my WW case, which isn't a huge red flag, because obviously it was a really good case. Overall, I agree with him a lot. Slight town.

Jimmmmm - vote silver because VT claim is "not good". That is the only thing I put down. Not good, much lurking.
hydrad - asks what JK means, some scum points for that. Not much else, pretty null overall.

ashersky - says he has a plan, then doesn't. Seems a bit like emulating his town meta here. It also takes a long time for him to get into real scumhunting, not sure what that means.

xerxes - is super careless, almost in a mail-mi way sheeping people (and admitting that it's sheeping)... this could be fake. His L-1 on Ichi looks constructed.
witherweaver - lots of jokes early. In general, I don't quite buy his suspicion of Ichi, and a lot of his posts feel like he's twisting people's words instead of looking for scum. Gets defensive when people (hydrad) revisit my case on him.

So WW and Xerxes seem like the best options here. Don't want to lynch ashersky really, but I hope we'll get more from him when his VLA ends. I could do Jimmmmm or Hydrad. Other lynches are not so good.

I'm keeping my vote on WW for now, to see where this is going. Willing to change to Xerxes later.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 01, 2014, 10:22:16 am
Doing a complete reread.

Reads from this, town to scum:

faust

silverspawn - VT claim. I kind of don't think he would do that if he had a partner, so if he's scum, it's either Traitor or SK. That's enough to make me not want to lynch him today.
Ichimaru - suggests silverspawn is lying. I somehow don't think scum does that... thinks maybe, but doesn't post stuff like that. It's not good for town to post it, but I think it's more likely to come from town. His defensiveness and unwillingness to claim does not point towards him being scum for me.

joth - the vote on Ichi was sheepy. Seems a bit careless and I believe that's more likely to come from town.
ADK - starts SK hunting. Overall his posts seem like genuine scumhunting to me though.
Eevee - after all the Ichi craziness, says his flip will provide information... that is always a somewhat scummy motive for a lynch. Sheeps my WW case, which isn't a huge red flag, because obviously it was a really good case. Overall, I agree with him a lot. Slight town.

Jimmmmm - vote silver because VT claim is "not good". That is the only thing I put down. Not good, much lurking.
hydrad - asks what JK means, some scum points for that. Not much else, pretty null overall.

ashersky - says he has a plan, then doesn't. Seems a bit like emulating his town meta here. It also takes a long time for him to get into real scumhunting, not sure what that means.

xerxes - is super careless, almost in a mail-mi way sheeping people (and admitting that it's sheeping)... this could be fake. His L-1 on Ichi looks constructed.
witherweaver - lots of jokes early. In general, I don't quite buy his suspicion of Ichi, and a lot of his posts feel like he's twisting people's words instead of looking for scum. Gets defensive when people (hydrad) revisit my case on him.

So WW and Xerxes seem like the best options here. Don't want to lynch ashersky really, but I hope we'll get more from him when his VLA ends. I could do Jimmmmm or Hydrad. Other lynches are not so good.

I'm keeping my vote on WW for now, to see where this is going. Willing to change to Xerxes later.

Your argument against me is that I did something that in no way fits a scum narrative for me.  And was, at least in intention if not in execution, a good town move.  How is that a good case?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 01, 2014, 10:26:14 am
Your argument against me is that I did something that in no way fits a scum narrative for me.  And was, at least in intention if not in execution, a good town move.  How is that a good case?

I don't know why it should not fit a scum narrative for you. And I don't think it was a good town move. And anyway that's not the whole case on you. This is what I mean by twisting words.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 01, 2014, 10:28:03 am
Your argument against me is that I did something that in no way fits a scum narrative for me.  And was, at least in intention if not in execution, a good town move.  How is that a good case?

I don't know why it should not fit a scum narrative for you. And I don't think it was a good town move. And anyway that's not the whole case on you. This is what I mean by twisting words.

Then I in no way understand the rest of the case.

How was it not a good town move? 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 01, 2014, 10:31:40 am
Your argument against me is that I did something that in no way fits a scum narrative for me.  And was, at least in intention if not in execution, a good town move.  How is that a good case?

I don't know why it should not fit a scum narrative for you. And I don't think it was a good town move. And anyway that's not the whole case on you. This is what I mean by twisting words.

Then I in no way understand the rest of the case.

How was it not a good town move?

It was not a good town move because it might have outed a town PR, and I have trouble seeing the benefit... scum will double-check if they're really lynched.

The rest of the case is you hedging on the silverspawn case early on, and pushing an Ichi case that feels constructed because by now I have trouble seeing what Ichi did here as scummy.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 01, 2014, 10:45:22 am
That doesn't make sense. You saw what Ichi was doing before as scummy.  And I'm not sure what you mean by "pushing".

Why is outing a PR a problem if you were willing to lynch him anyway?  You were voting for him.  As you've said before, when you have a vote on someone you believe they're the best lynch at that time.  If he claimed a PR after thinking he was lynched, a la Sudgy, then we wouldn't lynch him... a lot like what would happen if he claimed a PR when he wasn't yet lynched, except that we'd have much less reason to doubt him.

Ichi was either (1) faking in some way, or (2) believed he was actually lynched.  If (2) then he's going to be upset and more likely to slip something.  Town and Scum tend to react differently to being lynched.  We may be able to deduce what it is based on how he responds.  (1) is not that likely, but either way I'd have to get reactions to judge.

I probably should have said something different, but I didn't know how to say "tell us that you're Town" .. I probably should have gone with something like, "so you're really Town?" or whatever, but I figured everyone else knew he wasn't lynched, so someone would say something pretty quickly.  If he really believed he got lynched, I wanted as much responses as I could get in that window.

Hedging the Silverspawn case I suppose I can accept.. I don't know that I hedged it, but do know that I could still go either way on him, so I can see how that comes off as a hedge.  I keep going back and forth between "probably town" and "maybe he's pulling one over on us".  That's why, as I said in some previous post, I'm choosing to dismiss the claim as WIFOM.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on October 01, 2014, 08:27:14 pm
vote: Ichi
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 01, 2014, 08:28:42 pm
vote: Ichi
I believe that's hammer.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on October 01, 2014, 08:51:10 pm
Not again! Check the vote count. You're at L-1.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on October 01, 2014, 08:51:34 pm
I could hammer you if you want. :)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 01, 2014, 08:52:15 pm
Not again! Check the vote count. You're at L-1.

This is where you let him believe he's been lynched and ask him to confess.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on October 01, 2014, 08:58:02 pm
Spoilsport.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 01, 2014, 09:08:52 pm
Who unvoted me then?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 01, 2014, 09:11:37 pm
Think he might be at L-2 actually.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 01, 2014, 09:12:02 pm
That was cute from ADK though. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on October 01, 2014, 09:36:09 pm
I was already voting for you, and voted again to see what would happen.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 01, 2014, 10:07:20 pm
Ohmahgurd so scummy.

But also XP had changed to Eevee.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on October 01, 2014, 10:32:26 pm
Oh did he? Well someone else should vote for Ichi so he's back at L-1.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start
Post by: mail-mi on October 01, 2014, 11:54:39 pm
Vote Count 1.6

Ichimaru (4): ADK, joth, Jimmmmm, silverspawn,
Witherweaver (2): faust, Hydrad
Eevee (3): Witherweaver, ashersky, XerxesPraelor
XerxesPraelor (2): Ichimaru Gin, Eevee
 
Not Voting (0):

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day1 will last 10 days. The deadline for Day1 will be Friday, October 3 at 7 pm forum time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: mail-mi on October 01, 2014, 11:57:02 pm
NOTE: It would be really nice if everyone sent me a copy of their PMs (in a PM, of course), as I did not get CC'd when yuma sent them out.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 02, 2014, 12:12:02 am
We really appreciate you stepping in here mail-mi and continuing this game, so thank you. PM sent.


I don't know if there's much that I can do to avert my lynch today. I think there are cases much better than mine--with evidence other than my known defensiveness. I like where my vote is now, and I implore all of you to reread XP and think hard about the implications of my lynch growing so quickly with a continued number of poorly explained votes (not implying this for all votes on me, just some).

That's all for now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 02, 2014, 06:49:41 am
everyone on the Ichi wagon: Please explain what Ichi did to appear scummy, and how it fis a scum narrative. All the cases I've seen so far boil down to "well, he wasn't super townie, so let's lynch him".
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 02, 2014, 06:50:02 am
Can't believe I'm actually defending Ichi :D
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 02, 2014, 08:24:11 am
We really appreciate you stepping in here mail-mi and continuing this game, so thank you. PM sent.


I don't know if there's much that I can do to avert my lynch today. I think there are cases much better than mine--with evidence other than my known defensiveness. I like where my vote is now, and I implore all of you to reread XP and think hard about the implications of my lynch growing so quickly with a continued number of poorly explained votes (not implying this for all votes on me, just some).

That's all for now.

Instead, let's think hard about the implications of the fact that, despite you having been the number one suspect all day, it seems damn near impossible to actually push your lynch through. Who does that happen to, scum or town?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 02, 2014, 08:25:14 am
everyone on the Ichi wagon: Please explain what Ichi did to appear scummy, and how it fis a scum narrative. All the cases I've seen so far boil down to "well, he wasn't super townie, so let's lynch him".

it's a vibe I've gotten from his posts and reactions to votes on him consistently, all day. It's possible I just don't know his town meta well enough, but he has and continues to read very scummy to me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 02, 2014, 10:06:01 am
Rereading XP I am finding him scummier. I don't like all of his vote swapping. I would much rather a XP lynch then a IG one.

Vote: XP
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 02, 2014, 10:18:09 am
We really appreciate you stepping in here mail-mi and continuing this game, so thank you. PM sent.


I don't know if there's much that I can do to avert my lynch today. I think there are cases much better than mine--with evidence other than my known defensiveness. I like where my vote is now, and I implore all of you to reread XP and think hard about the implications of my lynch growing so quickly with a continued number of poorly explained votes (not implying this for all votes on me, just some).

That's all for now.

Instead, let's think hard about the implications of the fact that, despite you having been the number one suspect all day, it seems damn near impossible to actually push your lynch through. Who does that happen to, scum or town?
This feels dishonest. He was damn near lynched twice already, and the first time happened in a super rapid fashion.

The deadline, it's pretty close. Time to have your vote where it matters, people!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on October 02, 2014, 10:20:23 am
Rereading XP I am finding him scummier. I don't like all of his vote swapping. I would much rather a XP lynch then a IG one.

Vote: XP

Speaking of people who are doing a lot of vote swapping, I'm starting to find Hydrad pretty scummy here.

To answer faust, if I remember it started when Ichi gave a very hedgy response to silverspawn's claim, and then when he was almost lynched had what I viewed as a scummy reaction.

PPE: I like my vote where it is.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 02, 2014, 11:13:21 am
vote: XP

A strong case.

L-2
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 02, 2014, 11:15:04 am
vote: XP

A strong case.

L-2

Which case?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 02, 2014, 11:19:46 am
Vote: Xerxes
His last few posts that seemed like sort of quietly slipping onto the wagon and got me to rereading him, and wow has he been lurking, to the magnitude of only having 15 posts in the entire game. All his votes have been on growing wagons.

I don't know, reread him for yourself, but he has done a masterful job of avoiding all scrutiny despite playing quite scummy.

faust, you seem to be extremely aggressive on other players votes. is this part of your meta?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 02, 2014, 11:22:27 am
Quote
xerxes - is super careless, almost in a mail-mi way sheeping people (and admitting that it's sheeping)... this could be fake. His L-1 on Ichi looks constructed.

and you have said a similar thing yourself.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 02, 2014, 11:57:50 am
Quote
xerxes - is super careless, almost in a mail-mi way sheeping people (and admitting that it's sheeping)... this could be fake. His L-1 on Ichi looks constructed.

and you have said a similar thing yourself.

Yes - I wanted to know what parts of these cases you agree with. And I guess I'm not generally aggressive (people said I was bossy in Dice mafia though), but I'm getting frustrated when people don't care to provide reasons for what they do themselves and you have to ask them for everything.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 02, 2014, 12:04:45 pm
In James Bond mafia, XP was much more talkative, and although he switched his votes around a lot, he played very differently. He was making cases himself, and he was calling out others for what he thought was weird play. He also complained when people did things he didn't agree with.

Here, we have nothing of that. He is just semi-lurking, jumping on opportune wagons, and not doing much in general.

and these

Hmmm. That sounds really towny.  unvote

Also, that went a little quickly. Let's see, faust has been acting a little scummy. But only in relation to IG. Actually, maybe that could have been fabricated. vote: IG

he unvotes and then immediately revotes for IG. that almost looks like he switched up his fabricated reads or something and got confused. it doesn't look like a town perspective.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 02, 2014, 12:07:33 pm
alright, you've all convinced me. I'll make the switch to vote: XP. That's L1. Last words time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 02, 2014, 12:08:38 pm
alright, you've all convinced me. I'll make the switch to vote: XP. That's L1. Last words time.

last words time?

how about - yknow - a claim?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 02, 2014, 12:09:50 pm
In James Bond mafia, XP was much more talkative, and although he switched his votes around a lot, he played very differently. He was making cases himself, and he was calling out others for what he thought was weird play. He also complained when people did things he didn't agree with.

Here, we have nothing of that. He is just semi-lurking, jumping on opportune wagons, and not doing much in general.

and these

Hmmm. That sounds really towny.  unvote

Also, that went a little quickly. Let's see, faust has been acting a little scummy. But only in relation to IG. Actually, maybe that could have been fabricated. vote: IG

he unvotes and then immediately revotes for IG. that almost looks like he switched up his fabricated reads or something and got confused. it doesn't look like a town perspective.

I don't get the last point.  And if he was fabricating reads and got switched up, why wouldn't he just stick with the last one and play like he changed his mind?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 02, 2014, 12:16:51 pm
I'm here to hammer, but of course want to give XP a chance to claim. This is a large part based on reads, but also survival-voting to prevent me being mislynched today.

I see people switching to him a little too quickly as well, but at least there's some real material for the case. I see joth's voting patterns and posts as very scummy, but they also make sense from his point of view of really hating D1 and wanting it over ASAP. So is this part of his meta that I somehow missed in my previous games (game?) with him?

Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 02, 2014, 12:17:17 pm
I'm here to hammer, but of course want to give XP a chance to claim. This is a large part based on reads, but also survival-voting to prevent me being mislynched today.

I see people switching to him a little too quickly as well, but at least there's some real material for the case. I see joth's voting patterns and posts as very scummy, but they also make sense from his point of view of really hating D1 and wanting it over ASAP. So is this part of his meta that I somehow missed in my previous games (game?) with him?
Nevermind, forgot I was already voting.  :-[
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 02, 2014, 12:19:12 pm
Quote
I don't get the last point.  And if he was fabricating reads and got switched up, why wouldn't he just stick with the last one and play like he changed his mind?

well, that would have been the better play. but it's possible that he just screwed up. it seems more plausible than town changing his mind in the spawn of a few seconds.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 02, 2014, 12:22:49 pm
I'm not entirely convinced that we should force a claim and hammer unless it's a strong PR. I still like IG almost as much, and a little bit more after his last post.

If someone intends to hammer, that's fine and I won't back up. But do not hammer before XP gets to defend himself.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on October 02, 2014, 01:31:06 pm
I don't find XP particularly towny and I find this quickly building wagon intriguing. Intent to hammer.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 02, 2014, 01:34:28 pm
Unvote
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 02, 2014, 01:34:50 pm
I don't support hammering someone before they get a chance to defend themselves.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 02, 2014, 01:39:18 pm
I don't find XP particularly towny and I find this quickly building wagon intriguing. Intent to hammer.

Intruiging how?  How does it indicate to you that he's scum?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 02, 2014, 02:29:26 pm
I don't find XP particularly towny and I find this quickly building wagon intriguing. Intent to hammer.
wtf?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on October 02, 2014, 04:30:09 pm
vote: joth

I'm not saying I'm going to vote before he gets a chance to defend himself but I am saying if he doesn't convince me otherwise, I'll vote for him. And it's very interesting that XP got a wagon on him but then people freaked out when I stated intent to hammer.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 02, 2014, 04:36:09 pm
Lots of things seem to be "interesting" and "intriguing" :P
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 02, 2014, 04:53:13 pm
Lots of things seem to be "interesting" and "intriguing" :P
This day is just plain weird.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 02, 2014, 05:03:26 pm
vote: joth

I'm not saying I'm going to vote before he gets a chance to defend himself but I am saying if he doesn't convince me otherwise, I'll vote for him. And it's very interesting that XP got a wagon on him but then people freaked out when I stated intent to hammer.

To me "intent to hammer" means "I am about to hammer in a few minutes/in my next post"

How were you using it?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 02, 2014, 05:03:57 pm
Maybe we're on the same page and I just misinterpreted your post.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 02, 2014, 05:24:51 pm
I understood it as "Intent to hammer, time to claim XP". You don't announce your intent if you're essentially quickhammering without waiting for a defense.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 02, 2014, 05:32:36 pm
well fine guys vote: XP
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on October 02, 2014, 05:56:44 pm
I intended it as "I am going to vote XP if his claim/defense isn't to my liking". Anything else is ridiculous. And with joth voting again, the intent still stands.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 02, 2014, 06:06:00 pm
I'd like to know what XP thinks.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on October 02, 2014, 09:00:16 pm
No setup to save me this time - I'm a VT. First time mislynched at non-lylo.

Look at Faust/IG as a possible scum team. Look at Eevee for getting my wagon started. Everyone else is completely null to me. Sorry I haven't been much use.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on October 02, 2014, 09:01:06 pm
At least this way I can play well in guilds once it starts. Good luck!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on October 02, 2014, 09:08:00 pm
Yeah, I'm okay with this.

vote: xp
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on October 02, 2014, 09:41:00 pm
Told the truth. I'm a VT. Anything you want me to give my opinions on.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 03, 2014, 01:45:46 am
Quote
To me "intent to hammer" means "I am about to hammer in a few minutes/in my next post"

to me too. if you didn't mean it that way, it's fine.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 03, 2014, 05:44:33 am
So...flip?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on October 03, 2014, 08:08:03 am
I'm a VT. I'd tell you if I wasn't - I've done it before.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on October 03, 2014, 08:09:48 am
I think it was because I hadn't forwarded him my PM yet. Nobody cares anything about my reads? :(
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 03, 2014, 08:35:14 am
I think it was because I hadn't forwarded him my PM yet. Nobody cares anything about my reads? :(
They seem very omgus-like to me, but of course we all do. I understood you posted them already though, and it's not like you need to ask us to ask for them if you have more. Help help us!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 03, 2014, 09:46:35 am
Wait XP was lynched?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 03, 2014, 10:29:50 am
Yes.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on October 03, 2014, 11:50:50 am
I think IG and Faust are the same alignment (I think scum, but not sure)

ADK, why wasn't my claim to your liking? I just recently narrowly escaped being lynched by claiming doctor, so wouldn't I try that or something similar as scum?

Lots of people are staying in the background, not giving many reasons, similar to what IG was talking about. Look at them.

Personally, I think IG would be a really informative lynch either way.

Anyway, I just realized why my reads aren't worth much - because the importance of looking at reads is in finding out if the person making them is scum or not, and that doesn't matter for me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: A Drowned Kernel on October 03, 2014, 12:04:56 pm
People have been surviving with VT claims a lot lately, scum has to try it eventually. Do you think there was any scum off of your wagon?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: XerxesPraelor on October 03, 2014, 01:00:43 pm
Probably, simply due to probability. I didn't get the sense my wagon was particularly scum or town driven.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: mail-mi on October 03, 2014, 03:39:37 pm
Twilight for now, flip when I get home.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 03, 2014, 03:42:54 pm
make sure he flips scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: mail-mi on October 03, 2014, 07:39:49 pm
Sorry, no flavor. I haven't read the books so :-\

Vote Count 1.FINAL

Ichimaru (1): Jimmmmm,
Witherweaver (1): faust,
Eevee (3): Witherweaver, ashersky, XerxesPraelor
XerxesPraelor (4): Ichimaru Gin, Eevee, Hydrad, silverspawn, jotheonah, ADK
 
Not Voting (0):

With 11 alive it took 6 to lynch.

XerxesPraelor has been lynched! He was Mayor Jahns, a Vanilla Townie!

Night 1 ends at 7:30 PM forum time on Sunday, October 5. Please have night actions in at least a half hour before that. All players who don't have a power must still send a check-in PM.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: mail-mi on October 05, 2014, 07:25:30 pm
A Drowned Kernel has died! He was Allison Holston, a Vanilla Townie!

Day 2 start!
Thread unlocked!


Vote Count 2.0

Not Voting (9): Jimmmmm, faust, Witherweaver, ashersky, Ichimaru Gin, Eevee, Hydrad, silverspawn, jotheonah

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends on Wednesday, October 15, 7:30 PM FT.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 05, 2014, 07:26:40 pm
First!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 05, 2014, 07:26:48 pm
Good night for us.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 05, 2014, 07:29:49 pm
I'm here!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 05, 2014, 07:32:11 pm
And we're back.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 05, 2014, 08:36:02 pm
Still alive!

(Anyone watch The Croods?)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 05, 2014, 08:56:13 pm
Still alive!

(Anyone watch The Croods?)
Yep. I've seen it.  :D

Good night for us.
Is this because we only lost a VT?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 05, 2014, 09:01:57 pm
Still alive!

(Anyone watch The Croods?)
Yep. I've seen it.  :D

Good night for us.
Is this because we only lost a VT?
Well, yeah, I'm not especially happy it was ADK. :) Although it is an interesting kill, I remember being firmly null on him and I think some other people suspected him quite a bit. Not a kill you'd expect?

It was also good that there was only one kill. Lessens the likelihood of a serial killer quite significantly.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 05, 2014, 09:09:26 pm
Still alive!

(Anyone watch The Croods?)
Yep. I've seen it.  :D

Good night for us.
Is this because we only lost a VT?
Well, yeah, I'm not especially happy it was ADK. :) Although it is an interesting kill, I remember being firmly null on him and I think some other people suspected him quite a bit. Not a kill you'd expect?

It was also good that there was only one kill. Lessens the likelihood of a serial killer quite significantly.
Mm. Definitely expected scum to leave me alive since so many people suspect me. I don't have almost any strong town reads so far, so don't have much of a guess on who scum would nightkill. So maybe they didn't like ADK's reads, or they thought he looked townier than others, or PR hunting is possible (though I don't really recall anything to support it). It'd definitely be a good idea to reread him.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 05, 2014, 09:14:07 pm
On wagon NK could mean more scum off.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 05, 2014, 09:30:11 pm
I reread ADK to see. The closest thing to a reads list from him:

 
I feel like some players are flying under the radar here, not in terms of how much they're posting but in terms of scrutiny they've been under. I'm kind of one of them, but I'd also point out faust, jim, ash. I don't want to lynch ash day one on principle but I think that the focus here has been on a few players and that's not good for town.

So I guess, out of those players:

ash seems like his regular self, and he's VLA so I don't expect too high activity from him.
faust is difficult for me to read, but I think he's doing a very good job of blending in, so a few scum points for him.
jim's another VLA but seems like he might be lurking beyond that.
Hydrad wasn't on my original list but he also I think has avoided some scrutiny.

I still like my Ichi vote, for how he acted before, during and after his fake lynch, but I guess I'd toss those points out there for consideration.
Other than that, his vote sitting on IG almost all day, until at the very end he started preferring the XP case, first asking him to claim and then hammering him almost immediately following the claim.


I don't find anything in his reads implicates anyone, other than IG but many people suspected him, so naturally that's bound to happen often. I also didn't spot a pr-slip, but it's not like I would.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 06, 2014, 02:32:13 am
with 2 VT flips, we still know nothing very little about the setup. Well, maybe we can assume no SK, but even that's not certain.

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

Not much to go on.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 06, 2014, 02:37:34 am
As far as this goes

Ichimaru (1): Jimmmmm,
Witherweaver (1): faust,
Eevee (3): Witherweaver, ashersky, XerxesPraelor
XerxesPraelor (6): Ichimaru Gin, Eevee, Hydrad, silverspawn, jotheonah, ADK

I'm not very experienced in wagon analysis, but it seems to be that the wagon was moving pretty fast near the end. IG has only one vote, even though he was the main target for pretty long. This could mean scum!IG and his buddies were pushing the lynch to XP instead.

I'll have to reread when exactly each one of them joined the wagon.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 06, 2014, 03:05:00 am
So the order was IG -> Eevee -------> Hydrad -> silverspawn -> joth -> ADK (as you can see in the vote's post, the -'s are an indicator for the space in between)

I'm Town. ADK is Town. That leaves joth and Hydrad. I'm not sure about joth, also because switching wagons here is going to make him look really bad if IG flips scum. He switched really late. scum!joth has been quite careful about these kinds of things in James Bond Mafia from what I can tell.

So, Hydrad. Hydrad has switched wagons with this quote:

Rereading XP I am finding him scummier. I don't like all of his vote swapping. I would much rather a XP lynch then a IG one.

Vote: XP

I'll also say that I have done a complete reread on Hydrad Zelda mafia. A bunch of things stood out, the average length of his posts was very low, he wrote a big panic defense for a null case early, and overall he's had very little content. A few other things too. Expecting him to flip scum there, I was ready for a big townread here, because he's played quite differently. More long posts (still not many though). Less blending in. More content. In a vacuum, his play here looks townier to me, but it's suspicious that it's so different. And with him flipping town in Zelda, that makes him look scummy here. Of course, he's also relatively new, so it could just be a normal change of his game without a change of his alignment.

Still, I'm leaning on either Hydrad or IG for now. With the suspicion IG got, he can just use self-preservation as an excuse. He did vote for XP when he was at L-1.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 06, 2014, 03:06:07 am
*in Zelda Mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 06, 2014, 04:12:31 am
If a mod - I mean, a real mod (sorry, mail-mi) could take care of the name of this thread, I would be grateful.

Also, the wagon, hm. I think lots of people on it are on the townier side (Eevee, Ichi, silver). So that means that either scum avoided the wagon (possible, but not likely), there's scum among joth/Hydrad, or my reads are very off. The ADK kill makes it slightly less likely that the wagon was full of scum, but you know, WIFOM.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 06, 2014, 04:16:22 am
So the order was IG -> Eevee -------> Hydrad -> silverspawn -> joth -> ADK (as you can see in the vote's post, the -'s are an indicator for the space in between)

I'm Town. ADK is Town. That leaves joth and Hydrad. I'm not sure about joth, also because switching wagons here is going to make him look really bad if IG flips scum. He switched really late. scum!joth has been quite careful about these kinds of things in James Bond Mafia from what I can tell.

So, Hydrad. Hydrad has switched wagons with this quote:

Rereading XP I am finding him scummier. I don't like all of his vote swapping. I would much rather a XP lynch then a IG one.

Vote: XP

I'll also say that I have done a complete reread on Hydrad Zelda mafia. A bunch of things stood out, the average length of his posts was very low, he wrote a big panic defense for a null case early, and overall he's had very little content. A few other things too. Expecting him to flip scum there, I was ready for a big townread here, because he's played quite differently. More long posts (still not many though). Less blending in. More content. In a vacuum, his play here looks townier to me, but it's suspicious that it's so different. And with him flipping town in Zelda, that makes him look scummy here. Of course, he's also relatively new, so it could just be a normal change of his game without a change of his alignment.

Still, I'm leaning on either Hydrad or IG for now. With the suspicion IG got, he can just use self-preservation as an excuse. He did vote for XP when he was at L-1.

I don't think you should exclude IG and Eevee from your analysis just because they voted earlier. They didn't move their votes and thus helped lynching Xerxes just as much as the rest on wagon.

What you're saying about Hydrad is also very interesting; I don't find him much different from the last game I played with him (Dice mafia; he was town there). I don't really see the "long" posts, and did have the impression that he was blending in.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 06, 2014, 04:21:11 am
Mm. Definitely expected scum to leave me alive since so many people suspect me. I don't have almost any strong town reads so far, so don't have much of a guess on who scum would nightkill. So maybe they didn't like ADK's reads, or they thought he looked townier than others, or PR hunting is possible (though I don't really recall anything to support it). It'd definitely be a good idea to reread him.

Well, you don't need to be surprised that many people suspect you if you're behaving like this; making up excuses for not being nightkilled is a big scum tell for me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 06, 2014, 06:06:49 am
Fixed.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 06, 2014, 06:07:50 am
Mm. Definitely expected scum to leave me alive since so many people suspect me. I don't have almost any strong town reads so far, so don't have much of a guess on who scum would nightkill. So maybe they didn't like ADK's reads, or they thought he looked townier than others, or PR hunting is possible (though I don't really recall anything to support it). It'd definitely be a good idea to reread him.

Well, you don't need to be surprised that many people suspect you if you're behaving like this; making up excuses for not being nightkilled is a big scum tell for me.

I agree with the making up excuses for surviving thing.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 09:27:49 am
I know that town's dying reads aren't really likely to be more accurate than anyone else's, but I think we should do XP the honor of really scrutinizing faust.

I STILL think IG is probably scum.

Question for everyone. What percent sure are we that there's no serial killer at this point? (I am asking for a reason.)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 09:29:21 am
I mean, 2 SK slots also have a jailkeeper, so that's another explanation for the missed kill. ADK being double-targeted seems extremely unlikely.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 06, 2014, 09:31:34 am
Quote
Question for everyone. What percent sure are we that there's no serial killer at this point? (I am asking for a reason.)

I think this question is dangerous. If people answer it honestly, they might semi claim JK or something. I'm not familiar with this role, but it seems to be that it is pretty strong for preventing kills, as both targeting the killer and the victim will do the job.

I already claimed VT, so I can answer at least. I'd say between 80 and 90%
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 09:33:32 am
I mean, 2 SK slots also have a jailkeeper, so that's another explanation for the missed kill. ADK being double-targeted seems extremely unlikely.

Traitor has Roleblock, too.  So I think in every case some kind of blocking is possible.  (It's either SK or Recruited Traitor, right?)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 09:38:52 am
Quote
Question for everyone. What percent sure are we that there's no serial killer at this point? (I am asking for a reason.)

I think this question is dangerous. If people answer it honestly, they might semi claim JK or something. I'm not familiar with this role, but it seems to be that it is pretty strong for preventing kills, as both targeting the killer and the victim will do the job.

I already claimed VT, so I can answer at least. I'd say between 80 and 90%

Ok, restate. NOT TAKING YOUR OWN ROLE INTO ACCOUNT, how sure are you?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 06, 2014, 09:45:12 am
purely mathematically speaking, if there is a SK, he can be one of 9 players. if there is a JK, he has 8 possible targets, 4 of them would prevent a kill. wow, that's 50%.

so, the possibilities are:

no SK = 5/8
SK and no JK = 1/8
SK and JK 2/8
 -> and JK prevented the kill 1/8
-> and JK didn't prevent the kill 1/8

that's assuminr random choices from everyone, and ignoring the possibilities of a no-kill or a double-target.

and we get 1/8 chance
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 10:02:17 am
hmmmm ok nevermind, I know what I need to know thanks silver
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 10:27:38 am
hmmmm ok nevermind, I know what I need to know thanks silver

Want to share?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 10:34:49 am
hmmmm ok nevermind, I know what I need to know thanks silver

Want to share?

I do! But it's not the right thing for town if I do. When I have some time (i.e. when I'm not at work) I'm going to re-read day 1 and see if anything jumps out.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 10:41:52 am
Well, you're not obligated to be awesome town until Day 3, and it's only Day 2, so you can still make choices that aren't the best for town.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 06, 2014, 10:42:53 am
Well, you're not obligated to be awesome town until Day 3, and it's only Day 2, so you can still make choices that aren't the best for town.

why do you encourage him to do decisions that are bad for town?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 10:45:13 am
Well, you're not obligated to be awesome town until Day 3, and it's only Day 2, so you can still make choices that aren't the best for town.

why do you encourage him to do decisions that are bad for town?

Got sick of winning, trying the losing thing on for size.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 10:45:54 am
Well, you're not obligated to be awesome town until Day 3, and it's only Day 2, so you can still make choices that aren't the best for town.

why do you encourage him to do decisions that are bad for town?

Got sick of winning, trying the losing thing on for size.

You're trying too hard. Just tell us that you're scum and who your partners are, and we'll make sure you lose.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 10:48:46 am
Well, you're not obligated to be awesome town until Day 3, and it's only Day 2, so you can still make choices that aren't the best for town.

why do you encourage him to do decisions that are bad for town?

Got sick of winning, trying the losing thing on for size.

You're trying too hard. Just tell us that you're scum and who your partners are, and we'll make sure you lose.

Me, Ichi, Silverspawn.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 10:56:21 am
Cool. vote: Witherweaver
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 11:00:25 am
Cool. vote: Witherweaver

Nooooo vote my partners first
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 11:04:30 am
Cool. vote: Witherweaver

Nooooo vote my partners first

nah you're the one who keeps trying to out PRs. Plus Ichi's like impossible to lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 11:07:25 am
Cool. vote: Witherweaver

Nooooo vote my partners first

nah you're the one who keeps trying to out PRs. Plus Ichi's like impossible to lynch.

"keeps trying to"

If you think we're at risk of Ichi of being a PR, why do you still want to lynch him?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 06, 2014, 11:08:41 am
I'm not scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 06, 2014, 11:45:42 am
Vote: Witherweaver

That all reads fake to me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 11:46:46 am
Fake how? 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 06, 2014, 11:48:10 am
Fake how?

Fake in a forced-jokey way.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 11:50:08 am
And you honestly believe this is significantly different than how I otherwise behave?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 06, 2014, 11:57:33 am
And you honestly believe this is significantly different than how I otherwise behave?
[/quote

What exactly is the purpose of this question?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 06, 2014, 11:58:29 am
And you honestly believe this is significantly different than how I otherwise behave?

Again, correctly: What exactly is the purpose of this question?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 12:05:52 pm
And you honestly believe this is significantly different than how I otherwise behave?

Again, correctly: What exactly is the purpose of this question?

What exactly is the purpose of this question?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 06, 2014, 12:23:27 pm
I thought WW was pretty funny.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 12:32:00 pm
So I've lost my zeal for Eevee, and in retrospect am thinking he's more town.  I can't really tell if Faust is mistaken or trying to push a mislynch.  Ichi I always think is scum no matter what, so I have to curb all my gut reads against him. 

I think I want to lynch someone in the background.  I don't really have scum reads on the people actually doing stuff.

Vote: Jimmmm
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 06, 2014, 12:42:53 pm
Vote: Jimmm I'm conditioning people to drop their scum reads on me.

No, but seriously WW, I spearheaded a town lynch, and that made you change your mind? Curious.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 12:53:13 pm
Vote: Jimmm I'm conditioning people to drop their scum reads on me.

No, but seriously WW, I spearheaded a town lynch, and that made you change your mind? Curious.

No, I was just thinking back to how you seemed, and it kind of felt more like other times you've been town.  This post was the one that popped into my mind.. no good explanation why, just a kind of gut thing:

Also, as scum you don't want to be on an easy mislynch, because that's the first place people look (e.g., Ichi being "100% certain there is scum on your wagon").  So, you have to avoid the easy wagon, so you have reasons, so you end up defending town.

If you are scum, I believe Ichi would be town.   The other direction doesn't apply though.
Okay, I like this line of thinking, and it makes you seem townier to me.

Why do you think I'm scum? We've usually done excellent at identifying each other as town, so it feels weird to be at odds with you.

I could be wrong and it could just be like that you seem to me like you regularly are, independent of your alignment. 

Plus a bit of logic.. why drop a scum read on mere here if you're scum?  Maybe to look more like a town player.. but generally scum would want to not go back and forth so much and stay in the middle more.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 06, 2014, 12:59:55 pm
Just checking in. Been super busy with school and such. I have yet to reread D1 but should be able to do it soon. I agree that Jimmmmm's lurking here looks somewhat scummy. In particular, I don't recall him weighing in on any of the important issues of D1. I feel like there's more of a lurker meta in general lately, where more and more people seem to be low activity and not necessarily get heat for it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 06, 2014, 01:02:09 pm
To be fair to Jimmm, it is known he is legitimately busy right now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 06, 2014, 01:03:58 pm
To be fair to Jimmm, it is known he is legitimately busy right now.
Ok thanks. That does make a difference in my read on him. Do you know if he was similarly busy for most of D1?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 01:11:23 pm
I don't buy a lurker lynch here. I think the scum is active, and was involved in yesterday's lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 06, 2014, 01:15:28 pm
I don't buy a lurker lynch here. I think the scum is active, and was involved in yesterday's lynch.

What makes you say that?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 06, 2014, 01:16:56 pm
The Jimmmmm votes aren't helping much. This might be the last day we have before MyLo. People should come up with better arguments than LAL.

That said, it would be nice to hear a bit more from Jimmmmmm.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 02:32:20 pm
The Jimmmmm votes aren't helping much. This might be the last day we have before MyLo. People should come up with better arguments than LAL.

That said, it would be nice to hear a bit more from Jimmmmmm.

Scum has to be somewhere.  Lack of evidence for other players being scum counts as evidence for a given player being scum.  There are some actions to indicate that, e.g., you may be Town, but not really from him.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 02:32:39 pm
I don't buy a lurker lynch here. I think the scum is active, and was involved in yesterday's lynch.

So, who on XP's wagon was scum?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 02:34:00 pm
Actually, I keep on forgetting that Hydrad is even in the game.

Vote: Hydrad
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 02:43:48 pm
The Jimmmmm votes aren't helping much. This might be the last day we have before MyLo. People should come up with better arguments than LAL.

That said, it would be nice to hear a bit more from Jimmmmmm.

Scum has to be somewhere.  Lack of evidence for other players being scum counts as evidence for a given player being scum.  There are some actions to indicate that, e.g., you may be Town, but not really from him.
Actually,

Vote: Faust

You've been fairly critical of everyone else's statements and votes, but have barely provided much yourself outside of a pretty trumped up argument against me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 06, 2014, 03:14:47 pm
The Jimmmmm votes aren't helping much. This might be the last day we have before MyLo. People should come up with better arguments than LAL.

That said, it would be nice to hear a bit more from Jimmmmmm.

Scum has to be somewhere.  Lack of evidence for other players being scum counts as evidence for a given player being scum.  There are some actions to indicate that, e.g., you may be Town, but not really from him.
Actually,

Vote: Faust

You've been fairly critical of everyone else's statements and votes, but have barely provided much yourself outside of a pretty trumped up argument against me.

Vote: faust

I really don't know where most of your reads are. I know you think WW is scummy but where do you stand on others?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 03:21:54 pm
Man it's cool how I vote for someone then in the next post someone votes for the same person.  I am going to use this power to cause all sorts of havoks.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 03:25:25 pm
I don't buy a lurker lynch here. I think the scum is active, and was involved in yesterday's lynch.

So, who on XP's wagon was scum?

Well first off, I never said anyone was. There are lots of ways to be involved in a lynch without being on the wagon.

That said, the wagon, minus myself and ADK, is Ichimaru Gin, Eevee, Hydrad, silverspawn. I have a town read on silver. Eevee could easily be scum. Ichimaru is still a top scum read for me. Hydrad I'm null on, but a lot of people seem to find him scummy so also possible.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 06, 2014, 03:26:41 pm
Man it's cool how I vote for someone then in the next post someone votes for the same person.  I am going to use this power to cause all sorts of havoks.

nope when you voted for me it didn't work. Your power is terrible.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 03:27:30 pm
Who was involved in XP's lynch yesterday that was not on the wagon, and is scum?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 03:28:14 pm
Man it's cool how I vote for someone then in the next post someone votes for the same person.  I am going to use this power to cause all sorts of havoks.

nope when you voted for me it didn't work. Your power is terrible.


Well, I was the next poster.  I didn't give my own powers time.

OR MAYBE YOUR SCUMBUDDIES DIDN'T WANT TO VOTE FOR YOU.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 06, 2014, 03:47:37 pm
vote: Hydrad

the previous case was not bad, but this last vote was completely unreasonable. this is scum!hydrad trying to imitate confident!town!Hydrad.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 06, 2014, 03:58:45 pm
Let us not do faust. He really is not blending in anymore, he has been quite aggressive. I know that was part of the case, but it's more OMGUS, as this kind of play may be annoying, but I don't think it's very scummy. I like Hydrad or IG here. It's entirely possible that they are even a scum team.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 03:59:51 pm
Was he ever blending in before?  I don't think so. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 04:54:29 pm
A brief history of the XP wagon
by joth

This is, I think, the first mention of XP as even a possible lynch candidate, pretty late in the day, IG is currently the vote leader but only has like 2 votes on him, and a wagon has just started to form on Eevee (with XP as one of the Eevee voters):

I agree with your points ADK. Though I don't think XP has gotten much suspicion either from what I remember.
Neither he nor Jimmmmm were around for my wagon though.

Still don't get much of the votes on Eevee. And not sure what to make of silver here either. Blah, I feel like something else has to happen to get this game rolling again. Some town points go to everyone that's at least around and posting a fair amount I guess.

then, sometime later, XP says "can we just lynch someone already" and silverspawn posts:

I think IG is by far the best case so far. I'll definitely do him.

I'll also consider Hydrad or XP.

then silver and XP put IG to L1. IG makes the first vote for XP, out of desperation:

Just woke up. I am at L-1

Wow, guess I'll be derphammered twice this game.
I've said what I've said in my defense. If that hasn't convinced you or the multiple insane ramp ups of my wagon, I don't know.

I still don't like WW trying to force a claim out of me under false pretenses--no matter how he tries to defend it. So vote: WW
I will repeat that I stand by my decision to not claim. I really can't believe the lazy votes on me, and all I ask is that people look at the poor votes on me.

PPE: vote: XP

XP unvotes IG and then revotes him in the next post. Then Eevee joins the wagon and legitimizes it with a "real case"

Vote: Xerxes
His last few posts that seemed like sort of quietly slipping onto the wagon and got me to rereading him, and wow has he been lurking, to the magnitude of only having 15 posts in the entire game. All his votes have been on growing wagons.

I don't know, reread him for yourself, but he has done a masterful job of avoiding all scrutiny despite playing quite scummy.

I question Eevee's case on XP, saying it seems like very clumsy scum play. There's a lot more conversation. The day stalls again. Ichi makes a sly dig at XP:

I see a lot of people calling townie stuff scummy and scummy stuff townie, which frankly is confusing me.
These are the kind of things you want to call out! What are you referring to?
-Joth saying derphammering is townie and acting like ending the day super early is a good idea
-WW defending him pushing me to claim even though I wasn't hammered
-No one really picking up on XP's hugely scummy behavior: lurking, sheeping votes, joining easy wagons and pushing them, not being around for important events like silver's claim--and not really commenting on them.
-People finding you (Eevee) scummy for reasons that make no sense to me
-Everyone just accepting silver's claim

I don't know, most of that behavior that I list makes very little sense to me, and I feel like scum is just getting away with blatantly sheeping my wagon and trying to mislynch me for the second time today.
So people can just claim VT right away and get virtually no pressure, that must be great. I understand that I distracted from it, but silver's  claim is still a very important event of this day that people seem to be ignoring.

and then silver:

The XP case is looking strong. I have to reread him in James Bond Mafia, but right now I think he's almost as good as IG.

One of these two should be our lynch.

Witherweaver throws his support (but not his vote) behind the lynch. Oh boy I was hoping to find something like that.

XP always feels like town!XP to me.

Ichi and Hydrad always feel like scum to me.

The things XP always gets called out for are traits he always displays as town, so I tend to always see him that way. I don't have much of a gut town instinct on him here.. more, like I think, "would he talk about how suspicious or scummy he is as scum?"

I wouldn't oppose XP. The only player I have a real town read on is Joth.

faust posts a reads list. relevant excerpt:

xerxes - is super careless, almost in a mail-mi way sheeping people (and admitting that it's sheeping)... this could be fake. His L-1 on Ichi looks constructed.
witherweaver - lots of jokes early. In general, I don't quite buy his suspicion of Ichi, and a lot of his posts feel like he's twisting people's words instead of looking for scum. Gets defensive when people (hydrad) revisit my case on him.

So WW and Xerxes seem like the best options here. Don't want to lynch ashersky really, but I hope we'll get more from him when his VLA ends. I could do Jimmmmm or Hydrad. Other lynches are not so good.

I'm keeping my vote on WW for now, to see where this is going. Willing to change to Xerxes later.

Ichi gets to L1 AGAIN. Hydrad jumps lamely onto the XP wagon:

Rereading XP I am finding him scummier. I don't like all of his vote swapping. I would much rather a XP lynch then a IG one.

Vote: XP

Silver jumps on officially:

vote: XP

A strong case.

L-2

I vote for XP. I know it's scummy to say this, but I regret this vote. We were nearing deadline and Ichi was really repeatedly refusing to happen.

alright, you've all convinced me. I'll make the switch to vote: XP. That's L1. Last words time.

ADK declares intent to hammer

I don't find XP particularly towny and I find this quickly building wagon intriguing. Intent to hammer.

I unvote, because of a confusion of what "intent to hammer" means. I revote upon clearing up the confusion.  XP claims VT, ADK quickhammers, and that's all she wrote. Thoughts to come in next post.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 06, 2014, 04:54:59 pm
vote: Hydrad

the previous case was not bad, but this last vote was completely unreasonable. this is scum!hydrad trying to imitate confident!town!Hydrad.

Basically I just think faust has been making conversation by questioning others votes but not really said much on who he thinks is scum or not. I think its a easy way for scum to not get caught in defending the wrong people or not.

PPE:1
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 04:55:52 pm

A brief history of the XP wagon (with the quote tag fixed)
by joth

This is, I think, the first mention of XP as even a possible lynch candidate, pretty late in the day, IG is currently the vote leader but only has like 2 votes on him, and a wagon has just started to form on Eevee (with XP as one of the Eevee voters):

I agree with your points ADK. Though I don't think XP has gotten much suspicion either from what I remember.
Neither he nor Jimmmmm were around for my wagon though.

Still don't get much of the votes on Eevee. And not sure what to make of silver here either. Blah, I feel like something else has to happen to get this game rolling again. Some town points go to everyone that's at least around and posting a fair amount I guess.

then, sometime later, XP says "can we just lynch someone already" and silverspawn posts:

I think IG is by far the best case so far. I'll definitely do him.

I'll also consider Hydrad or XP.

then silver and XP put IG to L1. IG makes the first vote for XP, out of desperation:

Just woke up. I am at L-1

Wow, guess I'll be derphammered twice this game.
I've said what I've said in my defense. If that hasn't convinced you or the multiple insane ramp ups of my wagon, I don't know.

I still don't like WW trying to force a claim out of me under false pretenses--no matter how he tries to defend it. So vote: WW
I will repeat that I stand by my decision to not claim. I really can't believe the lazy votes on me, and all I ask is that people look at the poor votes on me.

PPE: vote: XP

XP unvotes IG and then revotes him in the next post. Then Eevee joins the wagon and legitimizes it with a "real case"

Vote: Xerxes
His last few posts that seemed like sort of quietly slipping onto the wagon and got me to rereading him, and wow has he been lurking, to the magnitude of only having 15 posts in the entire game. All his votes have been on growing wagons.

I don't know, reread him for yourself, but he has done a masterful job of avoiding all scrutiny despite playing quite scummy.

I question Eevee's case on XP, saying it seems like very clumsy scum play. There's a lot more conversation. The day stalls again. Ichi makes a sly dig at XP:

I see a lot of people calling townie stuff scummy and scummy stuff townie, which frankly is confusing me.
These are the kind of things you want to call out! What are you referring to?
-Joth saying derphammering is townie and acting like ending the day super early is a good idea
-WW defending him pushing me to claim even though I wasn't hammered
-No one really picking up on XP's hugely scummy behavior: lurking, sheeping votes, joining easy wagons and pushing them, not being around for important events like silver's claim--and not really commenting on them.
-People finding you (Eevee) scummy for reasons that make no sense to me
-Everyone just accepting silver's claim

I don't know, most of that behavior that I list makes very little sense to me, and I feel like scum is just getting away with blatantly sheeping my wagon and trying to mislynch me for the second time today.
So people can just claim VT right away and get virtually no pressure, that must be great. I understand that I distracted from it, but silver's  claim is still a very important event of this day that people seem to be ignoring.

and then silver:

The XP case is looking strong. I have to reread him in James Bond Mafia, but right now I think he's almost as good as IG.

One of these two should be our lynch.

Witherweaver throws his support (but not his vote) behind the lynch. Oh boy I was hoping to find something like that.

XP always feels like town!XP to me.

Ichi and Hydrad always feel like scum to me.

The things XP always gets called out for are traits he always displays as town, so I tend to always see him that way. I don't have much of a gut town instinct on him here.. more, like I think, "would he talk about how suspicious or scummy he is as scum?"

I wouldn't oppose XP. The only player I have a real town read on is Joth.

faust posts a reads list. relevant excerpt:

xerxes - is super careless, almost in a mail-mi way sheeping people (and admitting that it's sheeping)... this could be fake. His L-1 on Ichi looks constructed.
witherweaver - lots of jokes early. In general, I don't quite buy his suspicion of Ichi, and a lot of his posts feel like he's twisting people's words instead of looking for scum. Gets defensive when people (hydrad) revisit my case on him.

So WW and Xerxes seem like the best options here. Don't want to lynch ashersky really, but I hope we'll get more from him when his VLA ends. I could do Jimmmmm or Hydrad. Other lynches are not so good.

I'm keeping my vote on WW for now, to see where this is going. Willing to change to Xerxes later.

Ichi gets to L1 AGAIN. Hydrad jumps lamely onto the XP wagon:

Rereading XP I am finding him scummier. I don't like all of his vote swapping. I would much rather a XP lynch then a IG one.

Vote: XP

Silver jumps on officially:

vote: XP

A strong case.

L-2

I vote for XP. I know it's scummy to say this, but I regret this vote. We were nearing deadline and Ichi was really repeatedly refusing to happen.

alright, you've all convinced me. I'll make the switch to vote: XP. That's L1. Last words time.

ADK declares intent to hammer

I don't find XP particularly towny and I find this quickly building wagon intriguing. Intent to hammer.

I unvote, because of a confusion of what "intent to hammer" means. I revote upon clearing up the confusion.  XP claims VT, ADK quickhammers, and that's all she wrote. Thoughts to come in next post.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 04:57:39 pm
So, here's my most likely interpretation of events: Eevee and IG are on the scum team. They began, and pushed along, the XP wagon because the town was stalling repeatedly and IG looked like the default lynch. Does scum normally want to be driving the wagon? No. Will they do it if the alternative is losing a team member day 1? Absolutely.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 06, 2014, 04:58:34 pm
wait did I completely miss faust posting reply 556? I didn't remember him posting reads at all. I'm going to reread faust right now because I'm confused.

Thanks joth for posting that though
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 04:58:54 pm
I do find WW a little scummy, but the preponderance of evidence here is IG and Eevee, to my eye. so vote: IG
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 04:59:39 pm
ADK emerges as an extremely weird kill choice here as his hammer of XP was SO SCUMMY he would have been a very easy mislynch candidate.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 05:05:58 pm
Claiming I won't oppose a lynch is not the same as supporting it.  I guess you can argue they kind of are, but I was saying there that I didn't see myself making some big argument that XP is town.  In most games I've played with XP I've argued for his towniness, and I didn't have a big feeling towards it here, probably because he was fairly absent. 

Well, in retrospect, I should have argued the lynch,  but I didn't have enough confidence.  (Though you'll note I was trying to argue towards other targets late in the day.)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 05:07:02 pm
ADK emerges as an extremely weird kill choice here as his hammer of XP was SO SCUMMY he would have been a very easy mislynch candidate.

Yes, and that reminds me:

Eevee, since you're the proponent of "If you're left alive start questioning your reads," what do you think about the ADK kill?  Do you think it was reads-based?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 05:07:17 pm
Bolding fail.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 05:07:26 pm
WW, you actually do come out of my reread looking pretty towny. I got excited about the part I put in bold, but big picture-wise, you sure don't come off looking like the mastermind behind the lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 06, 2014, 05:07:49 pm
To be fair to Jimmm, it is known he is legitimately busy right now.
Ok thanks. That does make a difference in my read on him. Do you know if he was similarly busy for most of D1?
Yeah. It's my understanding it's been a busy fall for him.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 06, 2014, 05:08:22 pm
I don't buy a lurker lynch here. I think the scum is active, and was involved in yesterday's lynch.
This is because you think IG is scum?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 06, 2014, 05:08:39 pm
The Jimmmmm votes aren't helping much. This might be the last day we have before MyLo. People should come up with better arguments than LAL.

That said, it would be nice to hear a bit more from Jimmmmmm.
Surely the Jimmm votes are better than your novote.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 05:10:28 pm
I don't buy a lurker lynch here. I think the scum is active, and was involved in yesterday's lynch.
This is because you think IG is scum?

Other way around. XP wasn't being particularly scummy. His lynch only took off because nothing else was going on and other lynches, better lynches, repeatedly failed to connect. I look at the wagon, and I see a wagon being pushed by scum. Scum doesn't push a wagon day 1 unless they're in danger. Therefore, IG is scum.

You know, that and all the same reasons I found him scummy yesterday.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 05:11:39 pm
I don't buy a lurker lynch here. I think the scum is active, and was involved in yesterday's lynch.
This is because you think IG is scum?

Other way around. XP wasn't being particularly scummy. His lynch only took off because nothing else was going on and other lynches, better lynches, repeatedly failed to connect. I look at the wagon, and I see a wagon being pushed by scum. Scum doesn't push a wagon day 1 unless they're in danger. Therefore, IG is scum.

You know, that and all the same reasons I found him scummy yesterday.

Doesn't that seem a bit circular?

Or are you saying Eevee was the pusher?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 06, 2014, 05:12:50 pm
I don't buy a lurker lynch here. I think the scum is active, and was involved in yesterday's lynch.
This is because you think IG is scum?

Other way around. XP wasn't being particularly scummy. His lynch only took off because nothing else was going on and other lynches, better lynches, repeatedly failed to connect. I look at the wagon, and I see a wagon being pushed by scum. Scum doesn't push a wagon day 1 unless they're in danger. Therefore, IG is scum.

You know, that and all the same reasons I found him scummy yesterday.
When I started pushing XP, he was super-lurking and slipping onto any growing wagon with sheepish reasons. I disagree he wasn't scummy.

Now, the VT claim would have given me pause, but ADK made a judgement call and was wrong, so that's that.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 06, 2014, 05:14:14 pm
ADK emerges as an extremely weird kill choice here as his hammer of XP was SO SCUMMY he would have been a very easy mislynch candidate.

Yes, and that reminds me:

Eevee, since you're the proponent of "If you're left alive start questioning your reads," what do you think about the ADK kill?  Do you think it was reads-based?
Well, I reread ADK, and he didn't have any strong reads. He suspected IG, along with half the town. So, as far as I can tell he wasn't killed because his reads were spot on.. unless IG is scum and they wanted to hit someone behind that case, of course. Everything does seem to point eerily at IG.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 06, 2014, 05:16:45 pm
I don't buy a lurker lynch here. I think the scum is active, and was involved in yesterday's lynch.
This is because you think IG is scum?

Other way around. XP wasn't being particularly scummy. His lynch only took off because nothing else was going on and other lynches, better lynches, repeatedly failed to connect. I look at the wagon, and I see a wagon being pushed by scum. Scum doesn't push a wagon day 1 unless they're in danger. Therefore, IG is scum.

You know, that and all the same reasons I found him scummy yesterday.

Doesn't that seem a bit circular?

Or are you saying Eevee was the pusher?
Exactly. "Scum doesn't push a D1 wagon unless they're in danger?".
Well what does town do D1 when they're super close to being mislynched for the umpteenth time that day? You've obviously already eliminated any possibility that I'm town and skewed your reasoning to only support a case that I am scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 06, 2014, 05:18:14 pm
In joth's defense, I think I was the pusher more than you were, urging people to reread XP etc. I do accept responsibility on that.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 05:22:41 pm
Okay, then for clarity on Joth's argument:

"I look at the wagon, and I see a wagon being pushed by scum. Scum doesn't push a wagon day 1 unless they're in danger. Therefore, IG is scum"

Would imply that he sees Eevee as scum (for independent reasons), and Eevee is pushing a wagon on town, so the alternative wagon must be on scum.  Ergo, Ichi is scum as well.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 05:23:04 pm
And so if the implication is Eevee scum => Ichi scum, why not vote for Eevee instead of Ichi?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 06, 2014, 05:24:52 pm
Joth, why are you dismissing me being town who liked lynching XP better than lynching IG?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 05:26:27 pm
I don't buy a lurker lynch here. I think the scum is active, and was involved in yesterday's lynch.
This is because you think IG is scum?

Other way around. XP wasn't being particularly scummy. His lynch only took off because nothing else was going on and other lynches, better lynches, repeatedly failed to connect. I look at the wagon, and I see a wagon being pushed by scum. Scum doesn't push a wagon day 1 unless they're in danger. Therefore, IG is scum.

You know, that and all the same reasons I found him scummy yesterday.

Doesn't that seem a bit circular?

Or are you saying Eevee was the pusher?

I'm being unclear. Regardless of amy reads on anyone, it seems obvious to me that XP's lynch was not based on some rock solid case. It wasn't even based on a good-enough-for-day-1 case. It was based on a fairly lame case that everyone eventually jumped on because deadline was coming up and we've got to lynch someone. And if my excerpts don't sell you on that, reread it yourself. Yesterday was a terrible day 1 that kept stalling. No one was confident enough in a case to really push for it and make it happen.

That's (normally) great for scum! They can sit around and wait for a panic mislynch or even a no lynch. They might get antsy, but there's no call to step in and draw attention to themselves.

So how did XP manage to get lynched? That's the question we have to ask ourselves. The narrative that makes sense to me is one where IG was scum. He managed to escape his own lynch twice somehow. But he and his teammate knew that if they sat around and did nothing, the town would probably default to IG at deadline. They picked out someone who was a lurker, built a trumped up case, and pushed it through. And lazy townies with no strong reads (yes I'm including myself in this category) went along with it.

Like I said, that's the narrative that makes sense to me. It paints IG and Eevee as the likely scum. If you have another version of what happened, I would love to hear it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 05:28:40 pm
And so if the implication is Eevee scum => Ichi scum, why not vote for Eevee instead of Ichi?

I don't follow you. But my narrative works with Ichi + someone else as the scum team. It falls apart if Ichi is town. So Ichi is the more solid vote. Plus his flip is extremely informational, given his 2 L1 wagons yesterday.

Joth, why are you dismissing me being town who liked lynching XP better than lynching IG?

Because you pushed the lynch. Not very hard, but harder than anyone else. Also, why do you think IG is town?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 05:29:45 pm
Here's an Eevee quote I omitted for brevity's sake where he's frantically pushing the XP case.

We really appreciate you stepping in here mail-mi and continuing this game, so thank you. PM sent.


I don't know if there's much that I can do to avert my lynch today. I think there are cases much better than mine--with evidence other than my known defensiveness. I like where my vote is now, and I implore all of you to reread XP and think hard about the implications of my lynch growing so quickly with a continued number of poorly explained votes (not implying this for all votes on me, just some).

That's all for now.

Instead, let's think hard about the implications of the fact that, despite you having been the number one suspect all day, it seems damn near impossible to actually push your lynch through. Who does that happen to, scum or town?
This feels dishonest. He was damn near lynched twice already, and the first time happened in a super rapid fashion.

The deadline, it's pretty close. Time to have your vote where it matters, people!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 05:30:05 pm
you'll not it also includes a defense of IG.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 05:31:37 pm
Anyway, now I have to go play Magic. Either you like my case or you don't. I intentionally posted my recap of the wagon and my interpretation of it separately, so if you don't like my answer, please take advantage of the work I did and come to your own conclusions from my summary.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 05:32:08 pm
And so if the implication is Eevee scum => Ichi scum, why not vote for Eevee instead of Ichi?

I don't follow you. But my narrative works with Ichi + someone else as the scum team. It falls apart if Ichi is town. So Ichi is the more solid vote. Plus his flip is extremely informational, given his 2 L1 wagons yesterday.

Joth, why are you dismissing me being town who liked lynching XP better than lynching IG?

Because you pushed the lynch. Not very hard, but harder than anyone else. Also, why do you think IG is town?

Okay, I was just unclear with what you were deducing from what. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 05:38:10 pm
I just had a thought! What if Ichi's the traitor? Eevee was defending him and he didn't even know it! And the SK killed ADK -- mafia recruited Ichi!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 06, 2014, 05:38:32 pm
And so if the implication is Eevee scum => Ichi scum, why not vote for Eevee instead of Ichi?

I don't follow you. But my narrative works with Ichi + someone else as the scum team. It falls apart if Ichi is town. So Ichi is the more solid vote. Plus his flip is extremely informational, given his 2 L1 wagons yesterday.

Joth, why are you dismissing me being town who liked lynching XP better than lynching IG?

Because you pushed the lynch. Not very hard, but harder than anyone else. Also, why do you think IG is town?
So town shouldn't push lynches? Huh?

I don't necessarily think IG is town. I thought XP had a better chance of flipping scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 06, 2014, 05:38:53 pm
I just had a thought! What if Ichi's the traitor? Eevee was defending him and he didn't even know it! And the SK killed ADK -- mafia recruited Ichi!
What?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 05:44:03 pm
I just had a thought! What if Ichi's the traitor? Eevee was defending him and he didn't even know it! And the SK killed ADK -- mafia recruited Ichi!

Huh?  Recruiting can only be done randomly in the setup, or when all other Mafia die Traitor inherits the night kill.

At least that's how I understand it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 05:45:02 pm
Well actually it says that the Traitor and Mafia know who they are.. I don't know if Traitor actually gets to join the QT or not.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 06, 2014, 05:45:51 pm
I just had a thought! What if Ichi's the traitor? Eevee was defending him and he didn't even know it! And the SK killed ADK -- mafia recruited Ichi!

Huh?  Recruiting can only be done randomly in the setup, or when all other Mafia die Traitor inherits the night kill.

At least that's how I understand it.
No. The setup does say that if the Mafia NK the Traitor, they will be recruited instead of dying. So I think that's what joth's referring to.

PPE: 1
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 05:46:37 pm
Oh hey reading setups is cool:


Quote
Serial Killer: (if applicable, present 3/8 of the time)
- 2-shot JOAT, which includes a passive 1-shot Bulletproof, 1-shot Strongman, 1-shot Investigation Immune. If the Bulletproof is used up one JOAT attributes will be lost. If both the Strongman or Investigation Immune is used at night the Bulletproof will be lost as well.
- The SK may choose to give up NK and instead perform any one of the 8 town roles listed above during the night. Each role may only be used once by the Sk during the game.

In regards to the discussion before about a single kill implying no SK... SK has possible motivation to not shoot here.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 05:47:34 pm
I just had a thought! What if Ichi's the traitor? Eevee was defending him and he didn't even know it! And the SK killed ADK -- mafia recruited Ichi!

Huh?  Recruiting can only be done randomly in the setup, or when all other Mafia die Traitor inherits the night kill.

At least that's how I understand it.
No. The setup does say that if the Mafia NK the Traitor, they will be recruited instead of dying. So I think that's what joth's referring to.

PPE: 1

Ohhhhh... But why would Mafia shoot Ichi?  If they think he's town, leave him around to mislynch.. if they think he's the Traitor, then what's the benefit of the recruit?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 05:48:53 pm
Oh hey, more reading setup.

Mafia knows Traitor and Traitor knows Mafia are separate entries, and they can't both happen.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 06, 2014, 05:49:48 pm
Quote
Serial Killer: (if applicable, present 3/8 of the time)
- The SK may choose to give up NK and instead perform any one of the 8 town roles listed above during the night. Each role may only be
I missed that part. What does it even mean?

PPE: Exactly. I'm pretty sure Ash spoke to this early on saying it would be a poor decision for Mafia to try and recruit that way.

PPE: 1
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 05:51:40 pm
They can choose to use PRs instead of kill.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 06, 2014, 05:59:26 pm
They can choose to use PRs instead of kill.
So the SK could use the power of any of the possible town PR's in this setup for one night?
That strikes me as very interesting.

Anyway, still finishing my light reread. I should be done soon--joth's posts were really helpful, and I appreciate him doing that. Of course, I come to completely different conclusions especially given I know that I'm not scum, so theories that include that as a component are obviously nonsensical to me. Still, they give us some good info. I'm seeing joth as less scummy and moreso that we just have very different reads this game.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 06:11:46 pm
If scum recruits the traitor they gain a roleblocker. Very worth it for them.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 06, 2014, 06:15:09 pm
If scum recruits the traitor they gain a roleblocker. Very worth it for them.

But isn't he a role blocker anyways? So all they would gain is the ability to discuss who to roleblock?
Title: Re: Mafia ?? : Silo Mafia - Signups Open - Setup Coming Soon
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 06, 2014, 06:38:09 pm
Mafia:
2 Mafia + 1 Roleblocking Traitor
Yeah. I'm pretty sure this means the Traitor is a roleblocker regardless of whether they're recruited or not.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 06:53:41 pm
So your theory was that Ichi was so obvscum that Mafia decided to shoot him for the RB power?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 06, 2014, 06:54:54 pm
Traitor is Role blocker, but if he doesn't know Mafia he may block his buddies.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 06, 2014, 07:00:35 pm
Traitor is Role blocker, but if he doesn't know Mafia he may block his buddies.

and roleblock will stop the night kill? That would be interesting.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: mail-mi on October 06, 2014, 07:40:27 pm
Vote Count 2.1

Witherweaver (1): faust
Jimmmmm (1): Eevee
faust (2): Witherweaver, Hydrad
Hydrad (1): silverspawn
Ichimaru Gin (1): jotheonah

Not Voting (3): Jimmmmm, ashersky, Ichimaru Gin,

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends on Wednesday, October 15, 7:30 PM FT.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 09:01:02 pm
So your theory was that Ichi was so obvscum that Mafia decided to shoot him for the RB power?

Nope, I think we're in the setup where the mafia know the traitor.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 07, 2014, 02:33:18 am
wait, I don't get the SK. He can only use PR's when he doesn't try to kill? but, one of his PR is strongman. how is that useful if he doesn't try to kill anyone? How does the passive work? is he only bulletproof if he doesn't try to kill?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 08:18:03 am
wait, I don't get the SK. He can only use PR's when he doesn't try to kill? but, one of his PR is strongman. how is that useful if he doesn't try to kill anyone? How does the passive work? is he only bulletproof if he doesn't try to kill?

Vote: Silverspawn

But in case it wasn't disingenuous, it's the possible Town PRs he can use.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 07, 2014, 08:25:14 am
But in case it wasn't disingenuous, it's the possible Town PRs he can use.
I get that, but if he can only use them when he doesn't NK, how is strongman useful. just being unblockable without doing anything that can be blocked is like building a fortress in the desert.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 08:26:56 am
Strongman is part of his JOAT.  He can use it as a kill modifier if he kills.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 07, 2014, 08:28:21 am
Quote
They can choose to use PRs instead of kill.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 07, 2014, 08:42:39 am
okay.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 07, 2014, 09:04:43 am
I would like to hear people who aren't Ichi, Eevee, and Witherweaver weigh in on my big case. I regret bringing up the setup thing a little because it's become a distraction from what I believe to be a really strong case.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 11:51:18 am
Catching up, this is the first thing I noted:

Scum has to be somewhere.  Lack of evidence for other players being scum counts as evidence for a given player being scum.  There are some actions to indicate that, e.g., you may be Town, but not really from him.

Vote: Faust

You've been fairly critical of everyone else's statements and votes, but have barely provided much yourself outside of a pretty trumped up argument against me.

How does this fit together? And I to say I have not provided much is rude and inaccurate. Above that, what's wrong about being critical?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 11:51:55 am
Vote: faust

I really don't know where most of your reads are. I know you think WW is scummy but where do you stand on others?

And what is the reason for this vote?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 11:54:24 am
ADK emerges as an extremely weird kill choice here as his hammer of XP was SO SCUMMY he would have been a very easy mislynch candidate.

Well, scum hunting for other scum is always a possibility.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 11:55:08 am
Catching up, this is the first thing I noted:

Scum has to be somewhere.  Lack of evidence for other players being scum counts as evidence for a given player being scum.  There are some actions to indicate that, e.g., you may be Town, but not really from him.

Vote: Faust

You've been fairly critical of everyone else's statements and votes, but have barely provided much yourself outside of a pretty trumped up argument against me.

How does this fit together? And I to say I have not provided much is rude and inaccurate. Above that, what's wrong about being critical?

I changed my mind. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 11:56:12 am
The Jimmmmm votes aren't helping much. This might be the last day we have before MyLo. People should come up with better arguments than LAL.

That said, it would be nice to hear a bit more from Jimmmmmm.
Surely the Jimmm votes are better than your novote.

I'm voting for WW.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 11:58:03 am
The Jimmmmm votes aren't helping much. This might be the last day we have before MyLo. People should come up with better arguments than LAL.

That said, it would be nice to hear a bit more from Jimmmmmm.
Surely the Jimmm votes are better than your novote.

I'm voting for WW.

Pretty sure a no vote would be better!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 11:58:39 am
I just had a thought! What if Ichi's the traitor? Eevee was defending him and he didn't even know it! And the SK killed ADK -- mafia recruited Ichi!

Occam's razor, man. This theory is no good.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 12:00:55 pm
wait, I don't get the SK. He can only use PR's when he doesn't try to kill? but, one of his PR is strongman. how is that useful if he doesn't try to kill anyone? How does the passive work? is he only bulletproof if he doesn't try to kill?

Vote: Silverspawn

But in case it wasn't disingenuous, it's the possible Town PRs he can use.

Are you implying that silver is the SK here?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 12:02:01 pm
wait, I don't get the SK. He can only use PR's when he doesn't try to kill? but, one of his PR is strongman. how is that useful if he doesn't try to kill anyone? How does the passive work? is he only bulletproof if he doesn't try to kill?

Vote: Silverspawn

But in case it wasn't disingenuous, it's the possible Town PRs he can use.

Are you implying that silver is the SK here?

Verily.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 12:02:22 pm
Catching up, this is the first thing I noted:

Scum has to be somewhere.  Lack of evidence for other players being scum counts as evidence for a given player being scum.  There are some actions to indicate that, e.g., you may be Town, but not really from him.

Vote: Faust

You've been fairly critical of everyone else's statements and votes, but have barely provided much yourself outside of a pretty trumped up argument against me.

How does this fit together? And I to say I have not provided much is rude and inaccurate. Above that, what's wrong about being critical?

I changed my mind.

What were the points that indicated to you that I might be town, then, and why did you change your mind?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 12:02:30 pm
Not that I really want to lynch SK today, I just wanted to point it out here so I don't forget it later.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 12:03:00 pm
Where's ashersky when you need him?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 12:04:20 pm
WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 12:06:13 pm
Catching up, this is the first thing I noted:

Scum has to be somewhere.  Lack of evidence for other players being scum counts as evidence for a given player being scum.  There are some actions to indicate that, e.g., you may be Town, but not really from him.

Vote: Faust

You've been fairly critical of everyone else's statements and votes, but have barely provided much yourself outside of a pretty trumped up argument against me.

How does this fit together? And I to say I have not provided much is rude and inaccurate. Above that, what's wrong about being critical?

I changed my mind.

What were the points that indicated to you that I might be town, then, and why did you change your mind?

I was thinking that you were fairly active trying to figure things out.. your looking into me didn't feel too constructed.  When I thought about it more, "figuring things out" began to look like being critical or asking questions of little pieces of everyone's  post.  That is somewhat your style, I think, but it's fairly easy to do because all you have to do is be reactive.  You can just read something and ask the first question that pops into your head.  So I guess.. more reactive than active.

I should say that these analyses were done within my own memory and not through a reread, so there's some degree of possible error there.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 12:07:33 pm
WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?

Yeah, it would obviously never occur to me that someone would think that, because it's not like everyone points it out every single game of Mafia that's ever been in existence and always tries to paint someone as scummy as doing this or anything.

Silver's post read like obvious SK trying to look like he doesn't know how the SK works.  It's worth pointing out.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 12:10:26 pm
WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?

Yeah, it would obviously never occur to me that someone would think that, because it's not like everyone points it out every single game of Mafia that's ever been in existence and always tries to paint someone as scummy as doing this or anything.

Silver's post read like obvious SK trying to look like he doesn't know how the SK works.  It's worth pointing out.

Yeah, it would obviously never occur to him that someone would think that, because it's not like everyone points it out every single game of Mafia that's ever been in existence and always tries to paint someone as scummy as doing this or anything.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 12:11:42 pm
WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?

Yeah, it would obviously never occur to me that someone would think that, because it's not like everyone points it out every single game of Mafia that's ever been in existence and always tries to paint someone as scummy as doing this or anything.

Silver's post read like obvious SK trying to look like he doesn't know how the SK works.  It's worth pointing out.

Yeah, it would obviously never occur to him that someone would think that, because it's not like everyone points it out every single game of Mafia that's ever been in existence and always tries to paint someone as scummy as doing this or anything.

You're right.  No one has ever tried to produce a townslip before.  My bad.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 07, 2014, 12:11:54 pm
I just had a thought! What if Ichi's the traitor? Eevee was defending him and he didn't even know it! And the SK killed ADK -- mafia recruited Ichi!

Occam's razor, man. This theory is no good.
I honestly thought he was kidding.

And I didn't realize you were voting for WW, apologies. Can you list your reasons again? I might join.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 12:12:49 pm
wait, I don't get the SK. He can only use PR's when he doesn't try to kill? but, one of his PR is strongman. how is that useful if he doesn't try to kill anyone? How does the passive work? is he only bulletproof if he doesn't try to kill?

I mean, four questions to ask a question.. it just screams as "trying to look ignorant".
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 12:19:37 pm
I just had a thought! What if Ichi's the traitor? Eevee was defending him and he didn't even know it! And the SK killed ADK -- mafia recruited Ichi!

Occam's razor, man. This theory is no good.
I honestly thought he was kidding.

And I didn't realize you were voting for WW, apologies. Can you list your reasons again? I might join.

Yeah, maybe it was kidding... I'm not sure.

Anyway, Witherweaver: I found his whole interaction with Ichi on Day 1 very scummy (well, I happen to think that Ichi is town also). First hedgy, then trying to make him reveal his PR. Also multiple instances of SK hunting (there was something on D1 already). Now WW likes to say that scum would do this because they know it's seen as scummy... but it is scummy because town has no reason to do it! Town should approach this day with a mindset of "there is probably no SK, so let's hunt mafia". Not doing that is anti-town and scummy. And while other players were suspected for the exact same things WW is doing, he never got much suspicion. Plus, my gut says WW's posts are disingenuous, but it's hard to put that in a proper argument.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 12:20:07 pm
WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?

Yeah, it would obviously never occur to me that someone would think that, because it's not like everyone points it out every single game of Mafia that's ever been in existence and always tries to paint someone as scummy as doing this or anything.

Silver's post read like obvious SK trying to look like he doesn't know how the SK works.  It's worth pointing out.

Yeah, it would obviously never occur to him that someone would think that, because it's not like everyone points it out every single game of Mafia that's ever been in existence and always tries to paint someone as scummy as doing this or anything.

You're right.  No one has ever tried to produce a townslip before.  My bad.

It's also only his third (?) game.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 12:21:36 pm
It's also only his third (?) game.

I would love to respond to this, but you know, ongoing game stuff.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 12:25:23 pm
I just had a thought! What if Ichi's the traitor? Eevee was defending him and he didn't even know it! And the SK killed ADK -- mafia recruited Ichi!

Occam's razor, man. This theory is no good.
I honestly thought he was kidding.

And I didn't realize you were voting for WW, apologies. Can you list your reasons again? I might join.

Yeah, maybe it was kidding... I'm not sure.

Anyway, Witherweaver: I found his whole interaction with Ichi on Day 1 very scummy (well, I happen to think that Ichi is town also). First hedgy, then trying to make him reveal his PR. Also multiple instances of SK hunting (there was something on D1 already). Now WW likes to say that scum would do this because they know it's seen as scummy... but it is scummy because town has no reason to do it! Town should approach this day with a mindset of "there is probably no SK, so let's hunt mafia". Not doing that is anti-town and scummy. And while other players were suspected for the exact same things WW is doing, he never got much suspicion. Plus, my gut says WW's posts are disingenuous, but it's hard to put that in a proper argument.

Silverspawn made a post that indicated he was an SK.  I had the option to let it go and come back to it later if we got to that point, at which point I can't guarantee I'd remember it, or bring it up now so that I'd make sure to remember it.  I chose the latter. 

PPE: Okay, but my point is he's a new player. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 07, 2014, 12:27:07 pm
I just had a thought! What if Ichi's the traitor? Eevee was defending him and he didn't even know it! And the SK killed ADK -- mafia recruited Ichi!

Occam's razor, man. This theory is no good.

I disagree. What exactly is the simplest explanation for last night's one kill being a VT who would have looked very towny coming into today? There is no simple explanation. But this complex one fits all the facts of yesterday perfectly.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 07, 2014, 12:29:19 pm
WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?

Yeah, it would obviously never occur to me that someone would think that, because it's not like everyone points it out every single game of Mafia that's ever been in existence and always tries to paint someone as scummy as doing this or anything.

Silver's post read like obvious SK trying to look like he doesn't know how the SK works.  It's worth pointing out.

The reason I respond to this is because I think it makes you scummy.

Firstly I have zero reason to fake a non-SK slip. I'm not a big suspect, and even if people believe me that I'm not an SK, I can still be mafia. what? Why should I see the need to do something like that. There is zero WIFOM.

Secondly, I showed you the post that was - and still is (!) - confusing me. I'll show you again. Here:

They can choose to use PRs instead of kill.

I thought I knew how the SK works. This post is the only problem. You said they can't use PR's if they kill. But strongman is a PR that doesn't make sense if you don't use it while you're attempting a kill. So, you were doing the post that confused me, and then you were voting for me based on the fact that your post was confusing.

This really makes me want to vote for you, because I just can't believe a town player would be serious with this case. But I also really want to do IG. The thing is that the IG case has all sorts of history with day1 and reason based on wagons, and there is the joth case, where as your case is more or less out of nowhere, I didn't find you scummy day1. Right now, I feel like voting for you could be a trap. Even though you're really trying hard to look scummy.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 12:29:31 pm
I guess also.. if I was Mafia, I would probably just bring up Silver's SK thing in my QT later instead of point it out here.

Though I guess I could be SK, but then Faust would be SK hunting, so he should vote for himself.  Of course, he kind of already implied this:

WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?

Why is it okay for you to "SK hunt", but when anyone else thinks about SK's it's scummy?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 12:31:04 pm
Man, two posts earlier I posted the relevant setup quote:

Oh hey reading setups is cool:


Quote
Serial Killer: (if applicable, present 3/8 of the time)
- 2-shot JOAT, which includes a passive 1-shot Bulletproof, 1-shot Strongman, 1-shot Investigation Immune. If the Bulletproof is used up one JOAT attributes will be lost. If both the Strongman or Investigation Immune is used at night the Bulletproof will be lost as well.
- The SK may choose to give up NK and instead perform any one of the 8 town roles listed above during the night. Each role may only be used once by the Sk during the game.

In regards to the discussion before about a single kill implying no SK... SK has possible motivation to not shoot here.

I thought it would be pretty contextually clear what I meant.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 07, 2014, 12:35:45 pm
that's just a quote from the setup. I vaguely recall that it was confusing the first time I read it too.

so, does it mean the town roles are from the list of PR's that are possible to be included for town, and is not related to the JOAT? if so, all you had to do is write that, instead of starting this insane faking no SK case.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 12:38:58 pm
that's just a quote from the setup. I vaguely recall that it was confusing the first time I read it too.

so, does it mean the town roles are from the list of PR's that are possible to be included for town, and is not related to the JOAT? if so, all you had to do is write that, instead of starting this insane faking no SK case.

Calling it "insane" is making you look much, much worse.  And I did say it:

wait, I don't get the SK. He can only use PR's when he doesn't try to kill? but, one of his PR is strongman. how is that useful if he doesn't try to kill anyone? How does the passive work? is he only bulletproof if he doesn't try to kill?

Vote: Silverspawn

But in case it wasn't disingenuous, it's the possible Town PRs he can use.


Strongman is part of his JOAT.  He can use it as a kill modifier if he kills.


Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 07, 2014, 12:39:21 pm
I just had a thought! What if Ichi's the traitor? Eevee was defending him and he didn't even know it! And the SK killed ADK -- mafia recruited Ichi!

Occam's razor, man. This theory is no good.

I disagree. What exactly is the simplest explanation for last night's one kill being a VT who would have looked very towny coming into today? There is no simple explanation. But this complex one fits all the facts of yesterday perfectly.
Well, first of all scum doesn't know who the VT's are. I'm sure they'd change their kill now if they could. But, here are a couple of alternatives of the top of my head:

Scum thought he was a pr.  IG is scum and wanted to silence someone who suspected him. Scum wanted to frame IG. Scum thought town would think "that hammer was so scummy it's actually towny". Scum wanted to confuse us. Scum didn't think about it much.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 07, 2014, 12:45:11 pm
Scum thought he was a pr.  IG is scum and wanted to silence someone who suspected him. Scum wanted to frame IG. Scum thought town would think "that hammer was so scummy it's actually towny". Scum wanted to confuse us. Scum didn't think about it much.

Those are all bad. There was no evidence that he was a PR. IG had better targets who suspected him more and pushed his lynch harder. Scummy towny hammers are not really a thing.

But it doesn't matter. My traitor theory is incidental to my case on IG and Eevee.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 07, 2014, 12:47:19 pm
If I'm scum with IG, why did we kill ADK?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 12:47:32 pm
I guess also.. if I was Mafia, I would probably just bring up Silver's SK thing in my QT later instead of point it out here.

Though I guess I could be SK, but then Faust would be SK hunting, so he should vote for himself.  Of course, he kind of already implied this:

WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?

Why is it okay for you to "SK hunt", but when anyone else thinks about SK's it's scummy?

You understand me wrong. I do not mean to imply you're the SK, but maybe you are mafia and you didn't choose to kill ADK?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 12:49:03 pm
Scum thought he was a pr.  IG is scum and wanted to silence someone who suspected him. Scum wanted to frame IG. Scum thought town would think "that hammer was so scummy it's actually towny". Scum wanted to confuse us. Scum didn't think about it much.

Those are all bad. There was no evidence that he was a PR. IG had better targets who suspected him more and pushed his lynch harder. Scummy towny hammers are not really a thing.

But it doesn't matter. My traitor theory is incidental to my case on IG and Eevee.

Suppose you are scum. Who would have been your nightkill?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 12:51:45 pm
WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?

Yeah, it would obviously never occur to me that someone would think that, because it's not like everyone points it out every single game of Mafia that's ever been in existence and always tries to paint someone as scummy as doing this or anything.

Silver's post read like obvious SK trying to look like he doesn't know how the SK works.  It's worth pointing out.

The reason I respond to this is because I think it makes you scummy.

Firstly I have zero reason to fake a non-SK slip. I'm not a big suspect, and even if people believe me that I'm not an SK, I can still be mafia. what? Why should I see the need to do something like that. There is zero WIFOM.

Secondly, I showed you the post that was - and still is (!) - confusing me. I'll show you again. Here:

They can choose to use PRs instead of kill.

I thought I knew how the SK works. This post is the only problem. You said they can't use PR's if they kill. But strongman is a PR that doesn't make sense if you don't use it while you're attempting a kill. So, you were doing the post that confused me, and then you were voting for me based on the fact that your post was confusing.

This really makes me want to vote for you, because I just can't believe a town player would be serious with this case. But I also really want to do IG. The thing is that the IG case has all sorts of history with day1 and reason based on wagons, and there is the joth case, where as your case is more or less out of nowhere, I didn't find you scummy day1. Right now, I feel like voting for you could be a trap. Even though you're really trying hard to look scummy.

This post really feels townie for me.

You shouldn't stick to your D1 reads too much though (yes, I know, this coming from me...)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 07, 2014, 12:52:42 pm
And I disagree those all are bad. ADK wasn't thought of as scummy (before his hammer, and I don't think the hammer was super scummy ultimately.. you were a big proponent of just going with it and lynching someone, so I'm not sure why you think so either). There was no obvious kill, no one claimed a pr (remarkable!) and no one was anyone's universal town read.

I can't come up with a super strong reason to kill anyone, and they had to go with someone and picked ADK. Maybe they had some reason, but it wasn't necessarily super strong or something we could deduct now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 12:52:47 pm
Scum thought he was a pr.  IG is scum and wanted to silence someone who suspected him. Scum wanted to frame IG. Scum thought town would think "that hammer was so scummy it's actually towny". Scum wanted to confuse us. Scum didn't think about it much.

Those are all bad. There was no evidence that he was a PR. IG had better targets who suspected him more and pushed his lynch harder. Scummy towny hammers are not really a thing.

But it doesn't matter. My traitor theory is incidental to my case on IG and Eevee.

Suppose you are scum. Who would have been your nightkill?

Oh, err, of course disregard any PR reads you might have on people.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 12:56:13 pm
I guess also.. if I was Mafia, I would probably just bring up Silver's SK thing in my QT later instead of point it out here.

Though I guess I could be SK, but then Faust would be SK hunting, so he should vote for himself.  Of course, he kind of already implied this:

WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?

Why is it okay for you to "SK hunt", but when anyone else thinks about SK's it's scummy?

You understand me wrong. I do not mean to imply you're the SK, but maybe you are mafia and you didn't choose to kill ADK?

Oh, I didn't think of that.  That would be interesting.. there are possibilities: Jailkeeper, commuting, bulletproof, or Traitor Roleblocking.  Can't be SK because he shot.  Well, I know that I am not Mafia, but this theory is still possible for the real Mafia team.

Interestingly enough, it does explain the ADK kill.  He was the first one to start the "Silver is SK" thing.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 01:07:24 pm
I guess also.. if I was Mafia, I would probably just bring up Silver's SK thing in my QT later instead of point it out here.

Though I guess I could be SK, but then Faust would be SK hunting, so he should vote for himself.  Of course, he kind of already implied this:

WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?

Why is it okay for you to "SK hunt", but when anyone else thinks about SK's it's scummy?

You understand me wrong. I do not mean to imply you're the SK, but maybe you are mafia and you didn't choose to kill ADK?

Oh, I didn't think of that.  That would be interesting.. there are possibilities: Jailkeeper, commuting, bulletproof, or Traitor Roleblocking.  Can't be SK because he shot.  Well, I know that I am not Mafia, but this theory is still possible for the real Mafia team.

Interestingly enough, it does explain the ADK kill.  He was the first one to start the "Silver is SK" thing.

Well, I have to say that this post looks rather townie. Maybe I'm just terrible at reading you.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 07, 2014, 01:07:42 pm
Scum thought he was a pr.  IG is scum and wanted to silence someone who suspected him. Scum wanted to frame IG. Scum thought town would think "that hammer was so scummy it's actually towny". Scum wanted to confuse us. Scum didn't think about it much.

Those are all bad. There was no evidence that he was a PR. IG had better targets who suspected him more and pushed his lynch harder. Scummy towny hammers are not really a thing.

But it doesn't matter. My traitor theory is incidental to my case on IG and Eevee.

Suppose you are scum. Who would have been your nightkill?

I can't answer this without sharing who I think hinted at having a PR day 1, which would be a bad thing to put out in the open. Suffice it to say, not ADK.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 01:13:36 pm
I have too many town reads this game... I tried figuring out who I wanted lynched if not WW (I'm less sure about him now, it's still decent, but maybe there are other options). And really all people who are active seem townie. There may be scum in Hydrad/Jimmmmm/ashersky, who are all very much absent, but there's not really a case for them. I could do Hydrad I guess.

And joth I don't get a read on at all. He seems very involved and doing stuff, but somehow it doesn't help me in figuring out his alignment.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 01:16:51 pm
Why is it you think Ichi is town?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 01:29:20 pm
Why is it you think Ichi is town?

I don't think his reaction to silverspawn's claim was something scum would do.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 07, 2014, 01:50:37 pm
Finished my light reread of ADK.
Things that stood out to me were his early voting me because he though my reactions to the silverspawn case was scummy because I didn't vote for him.

Oh wait, I get it. Silverspawn is the SK, and he wants to avoid being targeted by mafia.
This, in particular is noteworthy.

All in All he seemed to find me scummy almost the whole day--and was pretty relentless in pushing my lynch multiple times. He was also quite suspicious of silverspawn and didn't like the lack of explanation surrounding his claim. He also defended WW quite a bit from various (I think legitimate) accusations. Then at the end he Hammers XP without having said much about him at all. Just that the wagon was "intriguing".
So I'm not sure. I still think ADK was a pretty odd nightkill choice--and he doesn't really come off as all that townie to me if we didn't have his flip.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 07, 2014, 02:17:41 pm
While ADK was not the kill I expected, I don't think there is anyone particularly obvious to kill this time, which makes the ADK kill less weird.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 07, 2014, 02:33:42 pm
So, I think the most plausible scenario for day1 is, Ichi and Hydrad are scum, they saw people pushing the Ichi case, so they shifted it towards XP instead. We should lynch Ichi today, if he flips scum, we should probably follow up with Hydrad. Other people to consider are joth, WW, and the lurkers, ash and Jimmm.

Basically, the only point where I disagree with joth is the case on Eevee. Let's not forget that he and IG were on the XP wagon pretty early. IG is the suspect, so that's no excuse for him, but it kind of is for Eevee. Plus, I just really don't get a scum feel from him.

necro:
Quote
IG -> Eevee -------> Hydrad -> silverspawn -> joth -> ADK

The biggest fear I have is that joth is scum. But i'm willing to risk that.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 07, 2014, 02:38:10 pm
or, we could do Hydrad first. That's probably even better. but one of those two.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 02:39:26 pm
I'm not sure I've ever seen Hydrad so not present. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 07, 2014, 02:47:07 pm
I'm not sure I've ever seen Hydrad so not present.

On lunch now for a bit so I'll try to catch up and post thoughts right away
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 07, 2014, 02:47:16 pm
or, we could do Hydrad first. That's probably even better. but one of those two.

I think IG is a better choice. He's a much more informational lynch, more interactions to analyze. Plus, he's likely a VT if he's not scum (since he's been at L1 multiple times and never claimed). And if my theory is right he's a roleblocker, so so much the better to get rid of him.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 07, 2014, 02:53:50 pm
Post count, because I have no clue. Rereading Hydrad after this.

WW: 152
silverspawn: 113
Eevee: 108
IG: 80
joth: 71
faust: 59
Hydrad: 55
ashersky: 39
jimmm: 11

Well, my first impression is that both Jimmm and ashersky have been getting remarkably little scrutiny for their underposting. Jimmm is often a low poster, but not to this extent, and I don't think I've ever seen ash be such a non-factor halfway through day 2. Of Jimm's 10 posts after the game started, 5 were about Robz's avatar change and his only post today reads "And we are back."
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 02:54:23 pm
I have too many town reads this game... I tried figuring out who I wanted lynched if not WW (I'm less sure about him now, it's still decent, but maybe there are other options). And really all people who are active seem townie. There may be scum in Hydrad/Jimmmmm/ashersky, who are all very much absent, but there's not really a case for them. I could do Hydrad I guess.


By the way, this was the same thinking that led me to vote for Jimmmm, and then Hydrad, earlier.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 02:57:44 pm
Why is it you think Ichi is town?

I don't think his reaction to silverspawn's claim was something scum would do.

This didn't stop you from voting for him a couple times yesterday, though.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 07, 2014, 03:00:07 pm
Reread Hydrad.

I don't think he's scummy. Generally I see him considering all the angles and making a ton of sense all the way. Sure, he hasn't posted a lot but enough to touch on almost all the topics people are discussing, and probing others with questions constantly. I don't know, I don't get a scum vibe, I think he's played fine.

I do agree it would make sense for scum to be in the low posters given how the more active people don't appear scummy. I do have a bad feeling about WW I can't quite explain.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 07, 2014, 03:01:15 pm
It's hard to say anything about Jimmm since the only information we have is that he voted for SS for his VT claim and found IG scummy early (and we don't know IG's alignment), and that he hasn't been posting much at all.

I guess I could go reread ash to see what he has been thinking since I have no idea.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 07, 2014, 03:07:19 pm
Ash was more active day 1, although a lot of it was setup pondering. Biggest things I found were that he didn't suspect IG, suspected me for being hedgy, I don't think I ever got a response when I asked him to elaborate why he thought it was scummy, and the whole thing was quickly forgotten. Mentioned suspicion on ss and town reads on joth and WW.

Ash, where is your head at now?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 07, 2014, 03:10:17 pm
Ok so here are my reads right now.

I'm going to do a scale of 1 - 10. where 10 is most likely scum and 1 is towny. 5 is null

WW: Still like fausts case on WW and is one of my higher scum reads. 8
silverspawn: Don't think scum would pull that VT move. seems towny but if there is a SK I think hes it. still think hes more town then SK though. 3
Eevee: Can't read this game that well. weird that he pushed xp and no one cares that much about it. 5
IG: Still feels really towny to me. 2
joth: I still think joth is scummy. I'm not sure how everyone seems to have such a town read on him. 7 for me.
faust: Only played with in dice mafia. I feel like his playstyle is different so this ones a bit more of a gut read. 7
Hydrad: -1 so towny i'm off the scale
ashersky: very little info but don't think town or scum asher would lurk for much reason. slight town read I guess but very little info to go off of 4.9
jimmm: for lurking and POE he is one of my higher lynch wants now. This is probably one of my more willing lynches as letting someone lurk till the end makes it almost impossible to read them to see if they are town or scum. I feel like this is what kinda happened in zelda mafia where I just couldn't build a case on him and he ended up winning there. 8

With this in mind I actually want to go for Vote: Jimmm Now.

PPE:3
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 03:14:17 pm
Vote: Hydrad
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 07, 2014, 03:18:55 pm
Vote: Hydrad

Do i get a reason?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 03:24:11 pm
Vote: Hydrad

Do i get a reason?

Would one convince you to vote for yourself?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 07, 2014, 03:24:35 pm
1 - 10 scales are stupid. either make it 1 - 9 or 0 - 10. five isn't even in the middle of 1-10
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 07, 2014, 03:26:03 pm
plus i never understood why people make 1 the lowest score. one is, like, one. one point. something. you give him a point. why give the worst thing a point?

it should start with zero.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 07, 2014, 03:26:45 pm
1 - 10 scales are stupid. either make it 1 - 9 or 0 - 10. five isn't even in the middle of 1-10

hmm thats true. ok lets say thats 0-10 now. the numbers would be almost the same and now 5 is in the middle.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 07, 2014, 03:27:14 pm
I don't have many actual things to say about your reads. the fact that you make long posts makes me think you're scum. this list could easily be done by scum!hydrad.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 07, 2014, 03:28:01 pm
Vote: Hydrad

Do i get a reason?

Would one convince you to vote for yourself?

nope. but I guess it might help others vote for me if you reason is good enough. and I'm kinda curious.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 03:28:13 pm
Why not make the scale from -95 to 105?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 07, 2014, 03:28:51 pm
I agree with most of Hydrad's reads (I think faust is towny is the biggest difference). Town read strengthens (<-- one of the hardest words to spell or what?).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 07, 2014, 03:29:12 pm
Why not make the scale from -95 to 105?

i feel like I don't want to use a scale anymore... I thought it was a good idea.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 07, 2014, 03:30:34 pm
Silver, the argument that Hydrad is more polished than usual did enter my mind, but ultimately, at least for today, I want to give the guy who thinks similarly to me the benefit of the doubt.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 07, 2014, 04:17:35 pm
Sorry guys, letting another one slip. I'll catch up today, I promise.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 04:43:37 pm
Post count, because I have no clue. Rereading Hydrad after this.

WW: 152
silverspawn: 113
Eevee: 108
IG: 80
joth: 71
faust: 59
Hydrad: 55
ashersky: 39
jimmm: 11

Well, my first impression is that both Jimmm and ashersky have been getting remarkably little scrutiny for their underposting. Jimmm is often a low poster, but not to this extent, and I don't think I've ever seen ash be such a non-factor halfway through day 2. Of Jimm's 10 posts after the game started, 5 were about Robz's avatar change and his only post today reads "And we are back."

Ash is still VLA, I think.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 04:44:23 pm
Why is it you think Ichi is town?

I don't think his reaction to silverspawn's claim was something scum would do.

This didn't stop you from voting for him a couple times yesterday, though.

Well, I changed my mind. I hear you know something about that, right?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 07, 2014, 04:49:50 pm
Vote: Hydrad

Do i get a reason?

Would one convince you to vote for yourself?

Probably not, but what about me?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 07, 2014, 05:11:06 pm
Hey guys, I'm back home now.  I need to re-read this entire game, as even though I've skimmed along on train and hotel wifi, I haven't really processed anything.  I'll read today and post some new thoughts.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 07, 2014, 05:16:35 pm
Vote: Hydrad

Do i get a reason?

Would one convince you to vote for yourself?

Probably not, but what about me?

Eh alright.. PoE makes him a good candidate already, and then there's been quite a bit of opportunistic wagon jumping.  He was in a  middle position on the XP wagon, jumped on you and then on Jimmm.  Jimm in particularly looks like a likely lynch today simply because he's not around and a lot of people have voted for him or indicated they would vote for him.  I think he's second on the wagon right now.  His reads list just feels very safe to me.. nothing too out of the ordinary except for his extreme defense of Ichi, which I've found suspicious.  Plus, Hydrad is usually quite active and posting a lot in all the other games I've been in with him.  And he's been town in all those games.  It could be a case of not knowing what to post as scum.

The wagon jumping point is somewhat mitigated by that being within his normal (town) meta, so take that as you will.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 07, 2014, 05:51:48 pm
Hey guys, I'm back home now.  I need to re-read this entire game, as even though I've skimmed along on train and hotel wifi, I haven't really processed anything.  I'll read today and post some new thoughts.
Cool! A fresh perspective ought to be quite helpful.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 07, 2014, 05:55:10 pm
Vote: Hydrad

Do i get a reason?

Would one convince you to vote for yourself?

Probably not, but what about me?

Eh alright.. PoE makes him a good candidate already, and then there's been quite a bit of opportunistic wagon jumping.  He was in a  middle position on the XP wagon, jumped on you and then on Jimmm.  Jimm in particularly looks like a likely lynch today simply because he's not around and a lot of people have voted for him or indicated they would vote for him.  I think he's second on the wagon right now.  His reads list just feels very safe to me.. nothing too out of the ordinary except for his extreme defense of Ichi, which I've found suspicious.  Plus, Hydrad is usually quite active and posting a lot in all the other games I've been in with him.  And he's been town in all those games.  It could be a case of not knowing what to post as scum.

The wagon jumping point is somewhat mitigated by that being within his normal (town) meta, so take that as you will.
Despite his lowish post count, Hydrad isn't low in content at all. First of all, 55 posts halfway through day 2 is decent activity in itself, we've just had a couple very high posters, and secondly, as far as I can tell he has offered his opinion on almost every issue. When I reread him I was surprised how high in content his posts were.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 07, 2014, 06:47:07 pm
First re-read was XP, since he was lynched D1 and flipped town.

First half of D1 he didn't have many reads.  Voted a few times.  He gets to a point where he votes for IG and mentions that he'd look at faust if IG was scum.  Switched to Eevee later, stating that trying to lynch XP is a universal scumtell (that's a bit of stretch).

At one point, IG thinks he's hammered again, XP points out that he's not but he could hammer.  He doesn't.  Then his wagon gets going and he doesn't post again until L-1, when he claims VT.  His final reads aren't very in-depth.

So, that wasn't a very useful re-read.  ADK next.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 07, 2014, 06:54:05 pm
There's not really much to ADK of note...he does an early reads list, giving scum points to faust and generally looking at those avoiding scrutiny (Jimmmm and Hydrad).  He mentions me there but say he doesn't like my lynch on D1 out of principle.

He does defend WW a bit on the IG rolefish play.  He pulled the second vote surprise fake hammer play.  That was nice.

He stated intent to hammer XP and joth got angry at him, but it looks like a misunderstanding.  Then he does hammer eventually.

He and I had a small discussion on claiming, he said he was against it.  That's about the only thing that could be construed as a PR slip for him.  Otherwise, I think the only reason scum kill ADK is to ensure a kill goes through -- so perhaps they fear protection?  Is that even in this setup?  I need to check.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 07, 2014, 06:55:00 pm
Yeah, I guess they could be fearing Watcher, Commuter, or Bodyguard (sort of).

Afraid of being Watched makes the most sense.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 07, 2014, 06:58:33 pm
Jimmmmmm has 9 in-game posts.

1.  He votes for Hydrad for an "inflated" Eevee case.
2.  Robz avatar stuff.
3.  He votes for Silver for the VT claim.
4.  Robz avatar joke.
5.  Robz avatar stuff.
6.  He votes for IG for "trying to hard to come up with reasons to do things."
7.  Comments on the IG Non-Hammer Issue.
8.  "And we're back" d2 post.
9.  Sorry, will catch up.

So...that's a lot of voting for so few posts, each with "reasons" found or come up with quickly while not really playing the game in real time.  Relatively scummy.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 07, 2014, 07:13:31 pm
Yeah, I guess they could be fearing Watcher, Commuter, or Bodyguard (sort of).

Afraid of being Watched makes the most sense.
Oh, in this light ADK is actually quite a sensible kill. Someone who was towny and active, but not so much so that shooting them is likely to backfire due to a town pr.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 07, 2014, 07:15:23 pm
Yeah, I guess they could be fearing Watcher, Commuter, or Bodyguard (sort of).

Afraid of being Watched makes the most sense.
Oh, in this light ADK is actually quite a sensible kill. Someone who was towny and active, but not so much so that shooting them is likely to backfire due to a town pr.

And Watcher is in two setups, but where the mafia team gets the 2-Shot JOAT.  So they'd know it exists.  It's just a theory.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 08, 2014, 02:13:28 am
there is also JK
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 08, 2014, 05:56:24 am
Okay.

Re-read faust as he had 2 votes on him at the last vote count. Some of his earlier posts came across as a tad ingenuine to me.

Actually unvote. silverspawn is entertaining. I want to see where this goes.

Who else is scummy? Hydrad, I guess. Vote: Hydrad

PPE 5

I do not buy the SK!silverspawn theory. The fact that Ichi finds it "highly plausible" is weird.

Vote: Ichi

Wow. Craziness. See no reason to move my vote for now.

I don't know, I just kind of get the sense he was trying to find justification for placing votes, with the use of buzzwords such as "weird" and "crazy".

Well... I don't think joth was particularly scummy here (neither townie though). Ichi I still feel could be scum. But who really troubles me is WW. He does basically the same things that Ichi was found scummy for in the first place (rolefishing with silverspawn, sheeping/hedging the SK!silverspawn case), then pushes Ichi for being too much within his meta and actually presses him to claim when he knows he isn't lynched. What's more, he does all this without getting even a single vote. WW's behaviour is easily the most scummy I've seen in my reread.

Vote: Witherweaver

I'm not convinced by his argument on WW, and again use of the word "troubled" sounds like he's trying to emulate how he is supposed to feel.

So Vote: faust for now.

That's not much, but it's something. I'm off to bed; I'll try to give more tomorrow after work.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 08, 2014, 06:17:24 am
Okay.

Re-read faust as he had 2 votes on him at the last vote count. Some of his earlier posts came across as a tad ingenuine to me.

Actually unvote. silverspawn is entertaining. I want to see where this goes.

Who else is scummy? Hydrad, I guess. Vote: Hydrad

PPE 5

I do not buy the SK!silverspawn theory. The fact that Ichi finds it "highly plausible" is weird.

Vote: Ichi

Wow. Craziness. See no reason to move my vote for now.

I don't know, I just kind of get the sense he was trying to find justification for placing votes, with the use of buzzwords such as "weird" and "crazy".

Well... I don't think joth was particularly scummy here (neither townie though). Ichi I still feel could be scum. But who really troubles me is WW. He does basically the same things that Ichi was found scummy for in the first place (rolefishing with silverspawn, sheeping/hedging the SK!silverspawn case), then pushes Ichi for being too much within his meta and actually presses him to claim when he knows he isn't lynched. What's more, he does all this without getting even a single vote. WW's behaviour is easily the most scummy I've seen in my reread.

Vote: Witherweaver

I'm not convinced by his argument on WW, and again use of the word "troubled" sounds like he's trying to emulate how he is supposed to feel.

So Vote: faust for now.

That's not much, but it's something. I'm off to bed; I'll try to give more tomorrow after work.

I have no idea how to respond to this. I don't really get what this case is all about. I'm using certain words; I think everyone is using these words. But I'm scummy because I'm using them.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 08, 2014, 06:18:58 am
This whole "I reread the biggest wagon (well, 2 votes) and found some reason to jump it" falls in the "so scummy it's hard to believe scum actually does that"-category.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 08, 2014, 12:36:02 pm
How soon is the deadline?

I'm not sure if there's a ton I can do to avert my lynch at the moment. Defending myself normally just gets me into more trouble.
I think Jimmmmm's latest post is scummy and his lack of commitment on important things like silverspawn's claim also looks bad to me.

So vote: Jimmmmm I guess.

As to the case on Hydrad, I have somewhat of a history of mislynching him. Still, I'm wary of the pretty baseless accusation of him having low content this game.

I'm also surprised that silver just continues on his way with pretty much no suspicion for his D1 claim, so it makes me kind of nervous seeing this day controlled by people I think are scum. All I can say is this game is playing out pretty strangely.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 08, 2014, 12:39:20 pm
I'm not sure if there's a ton I can do to avert my lynch at the moment.

What is that, the hundredth time you've said that? And right now you have what, one vote on you?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 08, 2014, 12:40:57 pm
IG's vote on Jimmm doesn't feel good.

unvote if that's where my vote is still at, I was mostly
prompting him to post.

I totally see what silver is saying about Jimmm's latest, but when everyone starts piling on the super lurker it starts looking unappealing to me.

WW and IG are my top choices for today at this point.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 08, 2014, 12:53:51 pm
I'm not sure if there's a ton I can do to avert my lynch at the moment.

What is that, the hundredth time you've said that? And right now you have what, one vote on you?
Wow. For someone dedicated to lynching me since forever, I can only assume that you're peeved at not being able to kill me.
Although I don't have a ton of votes on me at the moment, almost everyone has said that I'm probably the best lynch for today cause "information".
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 08, 2014, 12:55:26 pm
... huh?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 08, 2014, 12:55:34 pm
Wow. For someone dedicated to lynching me since forever, I can only assume that you're peeved at not being able to kill me.

I don't deny this at all. And I don't think it reflects on my alignment at all. You know who's easy to run up to L1 but hard to kill? Scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 08, 2014, 12:56:29 pm
I'm not sure if there's a ton I can do to avert my lynch at the moment.

What is that, the hundredth time you've said that? And right now you have what, one vote on you?
Wow. For someone dedicated to lynching me since forever, I can only assume that you're peeved at not being able to kill me.
Although I don't have a ton of votes on me at the moment, almost everyone has said that I'm probably the best lynch for today cause "information".

Also please show me where ANYONE BUT ME has said that.

Guys, this is the classic scum tell, thinking you're in more danger than you actually are.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 08, 2014, 01:09:36 pm
I'm not sure if there's a ton I can do to avert my lynch at the moment.

What is that, the hundredth time you've said that? And right now you have what, one vote on you?
Wow. For someone dedicated to lynching me since forever, I can only assume that you're peeved at not being able to kill me.
Although I don't have a ton of votes on me at the moment, almost everyone has said that I'm probably the best lynch for today cause "information".

Also please show me where ANYONE BUT ME has said that.

Guys, this is the classic scum tell, thinking you're in more danger than you actually are.

Hm. I agree with this. I'm really torn on Ichi right now. I feel like I let too many things pass "because he's Ichi" and maybe I shouldn't.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 08, 2014, 01:12:44 pm
Quote
Guys, this is the classic scum tell, thinking you're in more danger than you actually are.

well I was scum in the game that just ended, and I know that this is true. there was an early case against me, and i felt way too much pressure. that basically gave me away right there. WW I think noticed it. It didn't end up hunting me too much, but it probably should ahve.

still, IG is under a lot of pressure here. he may have only one vote, but a lot of people have expressed his feelings about him. so, I'm not sure it applies in this case.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 08, 2014, 01:12:55 pm
This whole "I reread the biggest wagon (well, 2 votes) and found some reason to jump it" falls in the "so scummy it's hard to believe scum actually does that"-category.

Didn't you only have one vote?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 08, 2014, 01:13:28 pm
Jimmmmm, what do you think about everything that has gone down with Ichi?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 08, 2014, 01:17:56 pm
This whole "I reread the biggest wagon (well, 2 votes) and found some reason to jump it" falls in the "so scummy it's hard to believe scum actually does that"-category.

Didn't you only have one vote?

You and Hydrad, if I remember correctly.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 08, 2014, 01:20:08 pm
I had moved my vote to Silverspawn, and then to Hydrad.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 08, 2014, 01:22:48 pm
IG's vote on Jimmm doesn't feel good.
WW and IG are my top choices for today at this point.

I guess Ichi's flip will be quite information for us now, if not anything else. I do share joth's concerns about the lack of claim though.

PPE: Eevee have I actually been lynched, or have you missed some of the thread?
How ironic that you thought it would give you any information, since so much of it was sheeped.
No, but when you flip, it will be informational. :) Sheeping doesn't take away the information value, not at all. People took strong stances on you early, that's information.
There you go. Most players have expressed a desire to lynch me, but it seems Eevee was the major person aside from you that made the same arguments about my informational flip.
Please. "classic" scumtell. I made scum MVP the last time I was scum. And I coasted almost that whole game with very little suspicion. I chose to react to the early bad votes on me the way I did.


PPE faust: Interesting. I want to hear how you think my meta relates to this game.

PPE: more
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 08, 2014, 01:23:58 pm
I had moved my vote to Silverspawn, and then to Hydrad.

Right. But Jimmmmm explicitly stated that he reread me because I had two votes on me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 08, 2014, 01:27:54 pm
PPE faust: Interesting. I want to hear how you think my meta relates to this game.

Well, I always find you scummy because you seem to be defending yourself too much. So if you're accused of "thinking you're in more danger than you actually are", I read that and think "well yes, but it's Ichi, he always defends that much, he seems to feel the danger even when he's town".
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 08, 2014, 01:29:05 pm
I made scum MVP the last time I was scum. And I coasted almost that whole game with very little suspicion.

This is, aside from coming across as a bit arrogant, a bad argument.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 08, 2014, 01:34:42 pm
I made scum MVP the last time I was scum. And I coasted almost that whole game with very little suspicion.

This is, aside from coming across as a bit arrogant, a bad argument.
Didn't mean it that way. I try to be humble, because of course I still make plenty of mistakes as any alignment. I guess what I meant by it is I think that I've proven myself to at least be not totally incompetent as scum, so I think some of the arguments against me do not have a ton of basis--especially given my meta of defending myself strongly regardless of alignment.

Got to go, but I should be back soon.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 08, 2014, 01:35:19 pm
I had moved my vote to Silverspawn, and then to Hydrad.

Right. But Jimmmmm explicitly stated that he reread me because I had two votes on me.

Oh, I didn't see that.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 08, 2014, 02:50:34 pm
Jimmmmm, what do you think about everything that has gone down with Ichi?

Nothing yet; that'll be my job for tonight.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 08, 2014, 04:19:54 pm
How soon is the deadline?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 08, 2014, 05:03:12 pm
How soon is the deadline?

Not soon, I don't think.


mail-mi -- are you still around for this game at least?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 08, 2014, 06:39:29 pm
"I'm too good at playing scum to be caught like this, you fools!" Vintage Robz, but I guess someone has to say it since he missed this game.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 08, 2014, 06:54:24 pm
Ha, I gotta start using that.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 08, 2014, 06:55:41 pm
Ha, I gotta start using that.
I already trademarked it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 08, 2014, 07:03:26 pm
Ha, I gotta start using that.
I already trademarked it.
No, that really was Robz. Two years ago.

It's also a silly argument. You are essentially saying "I'm so good at playing scum that the only way I would get votes is if I'm town. Get with the program." Sorry if we don't take your word for it. :)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 08, 2014, 07:05:20 pm
Oh golly! I just love making people's signatures.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 08, 2014, 07:09:19 pm
Ha, I gotta start using that.
I already trademarked it.
No, that really was Robz. Two years ago.

It's also a silly argument. You are essentially saying "I'm so good at playing scum that the only way I would get votes is if I'm town. Get with the program." Sorry if we don't take your word for it. :)
Just Kidding.
Really though, I didn't mean it like "I am the invincible scum player who can never be caught". I just didn't think the argument of me making "classic" scum behavior was that believable. I fight all my lynches hard regardless of alignment. So I don't think ichi defending himself should be a towntell or a scumtell, just an ichitell.

PPE: :)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 08, 2014, 07:14:29 pm
Okay, that's a fair point. I personally haven't experienced it ever to this extent, but others have been saying the same thing.

I'm going back and forth on you, the suspicion also comes from PoE and it fitting some plausible narratives. This game is hard!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: mail-mi on October 08, 2014, 10:43:16 pm
How soon is the deadline?

Not soon, I don't think.


mail-mi -- are you still around for this game at least?

Yep! However, e will be helping me comod from now on. Anything he posts, consider it posted by me. (and yuma).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 08, 2014, 10:44:31 pm
Thanksies to you both!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 08, 2014, 11:09:25 pm
A wild Eevee appears!  ..to mod
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 08, 2014, 11:09:49 pm
Oh, he said e.. Eevee was in the game.  Nevermind.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 08, 2014, 11:12:21 pm
Oh, he said e.. Eevee was in the game.  Nevermind.
I'm hurt you'd forget!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 08, 2014, 11:14:50 pm
Oh, he said e.. Eevee was in the game.  Nevermind.
I'm hurt you'd forget!

Once you started considering lynching me, you became dead to me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 08, 2014, 11:41:34 pm
Oh, he said e.. Eevee was in the game.  Nevermind.
I'm hurt you'd forget!

Once you started considering lynching me, you became dead to me.
If you get your will and I'm lynched, I'll be dead to everyone else too.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 09, 2014, 12:21:37 am
Hey guys, just wanted to let everyone know I've heard from yuma outside of f.ds and there's no hard feelings or anything.  He just felt it was important he quit f.ds cold turkey.

He's especially sorry to us in this game, he said, and wishes us all the best.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 09, 2014, 12:36:38 am
Hey guys, just wanted to let everyone know I've heard from yuma outside of f.ds and there's no hard feelings or anything.  He just felt it was important he quit f.ds cold turkey.

He's especially sorry to us in this game, he said, and wishes us all the best.

That makes me feel better. Even though I didn't get to know him much.

Although maybe he just hates me... my first game I played in was when he took his break. And then right when I started to mod ashers game he quit D:.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 09, 2014, 12:38:33 am
Hey guys, just wanted to let everyone know I've heard from yuma outside of f.ds and there's no hard feelings or anything.  He just felt it was important he quit f.ds cold turkey.

He's especially sorry to us in this game, he said, and wishes us all the best.

That makes me feel better. Even though I didn't get to know him much.

Although maybe he just hates me... my first game I played in was when he took his break. And then right when I started to mod ashers game he quit D:.
Nah. I don't think it's you at all. He outed in a game where I was scumpartners with him and then quit while he was modding a game I was in. You could probably make any number of cases, but I really think it was more to do with f.ds in general, not any specific person.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 09, 2014, 12:40:50 am
Hey guys, just wanted to let everyone know I've heard from yuma outside of f.ds and there's no hard feelings or anything.  He just felt it was important he quit f.ds cold turkey.

He's especially sorry to us in this game, he said, and wishes us all the best.

That makes me feel better. Even though I didn't get to know him much.

Although maybe he just hates me... my first game I played in was when he took his break. And then right when I started to mod ashers game he quit D:.
Nah. I don't think it's you at all. He outed in a game where I was scumpartners with him and then quit while he was modding a game I was in. You could probably make any number of cases, but I really think it was more to do with f.ds in general, not any specific person.

Ya I was more just pointing out a interesting fact. But I'm glad asher heard from him. Makes me feel better.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 09, 2014, 12:43:45 am
Hey guys, just wanted to let everyone know I've heard from yuma outside of f.ds and there's no hard feelings or anything.  He just felt it was important he quit f.ds cold turkey.

He's especially sorry to us in this game, he said, and wishes us all the best.

That makes me feel better. Even though I didn't get to know him much.

Although maybe he just hates me... my first game I played in was when he took his break. And then right when I started to mod ashers game he quit D:.
Nah. I don't think it's you at all. He outed in a game where I was scumpartners with him and then quit while he was modding a game I was in. You could probably make any number of cases, but I really think it was more to do with f.ds in general, not any specific person.

Ya I was more just pointing out a interesting fact. But I'm glad asher heard from him. Makes me feel better.
Me too. So yeah, glad to hear there's no hard feelings and we wish yuma the best of everything.

Anyway, (back to the game) I've said about all I can in my defense. I think Jimmmmm might be one of the better lynches of today--though I don't have many townreads that I trust. I'd also like to see silver at least get some heat (I keep saying this but it seems like claiming VT day 1 makes you golden I guess).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 09, 2014, 12:49:25 am

Anyway, (back to the game) I've said about all I can in my defense. I think Jimmmmm might be one of the better lynches of today--though I don't have many townreads that I trust. I'd also like to see silver at least get some heat (I keep saying this but it seems like claiming VT day 1 makes you golden I guess).

One thing I will say is if I see someone claim VT in a game in the future I won't react this way as they might of seen it work and try it again. As a first time when I havn't seen anyone else do it I feel like scum wouldn't do it. (I know me personally am never going to be bold enough to try something like that).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 09, 2014, 12:51:36 am
hmmmm ok nevermind, I know what I need to know thanks silver

Want to share?

I do! But it's not the right thing for town if I do. When I have some time (i.e. when I'm not at work) I'm going to re-read day 1 and see if anything jumps out.

What was this about again?  Joth figured something out after asking about likelihood of SK existence and Silver doing math...
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 09, 2014, 01:07:04 am
Okay, just re-read all of D2.

jotheonah is the big voice of the day.  He's either playing a great town game, or faking it as scum.  I know that's a non-statement, but I'm wary of joth ever since the blitz performance he had with Robz.  I'm inclined to say we should follow his lead for now, but be ready to turn on him if he leads us down the mislynch path too easily.

Eevee is around, basically his normal buddying self.  That used to be a tell, but not anymore.  I'm not giving him a town read at this time.

Jimmmmm's few posts have been scummy, but so few that it could just feel scummy.

IG is impossible to fairly assess now.  I do think his lynch isn't a bad idea, but I'm not sure he's scum or anything.  He's done some scummy stuff, but he reminds me of me in the early days just being scummy towny.

WW/Teproc are blending together.  That's normally a bad thing.

Faust is reminding me a bit of his Dune performance, so I'm wary.

I have no firm town reads, I guess.  That's sort of scary.  I got little out of analyzing the dead players, given they are not scum (so much better when we hit scum on D1).  I think a lynch sooner rather than later is good for D2.

Are we at the point where we want to know the setup we're in?  It's easily done with a semi-claim plan.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 09, 2014, 01:25:28 am

Anyway, (back to the game) I've said about all I can in my defense. I think Jimmmmm might be one of the better lynches of today--though I don't have many townreads that I trust. I'd also like to see silver at least get some heat (I keep saying this but it seems like claiming VT day 1 makes you golden I guess).

One thing I will say is if I see someone claim VT in a game in the future I won't react this way as they might of seen it work and try it again. As a first time when I havn't seen anyone else do it I feel like scum wouldn't do it. (I know me personally am never going to be bold enough to try something like that).
Historically day 1 VT claims have had a terrible track record of surviving and a great track record of flipping town. Those were all way before silverspawn even joined f.ds, so I doubt he knew that.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 09, 2014, 01:30:21 am
Okay, just re-read all of D2.

jotheonah is the big voice of the day.  He's either playing a great town game, or faking it as scum.  I know that's a non-statement, but I'm wary of joth ever since the blitz performance he had with Robz.  I'm inclined to say we should follow his lead for now, but be ready to turn on him if he leads us down the mislynch path too easily.
I wouldn't necessarily agree with this assessment. Not that I'm saying joth is playing bad if he is town, but I don't see anyone "following his lead" here, really. Sure, he is the most active and has strong opinions, but since it seems very up in the air who we are lynching still, I'm hesitant to call him the "leading voice of day 2". I'd say the leading voice was whoever we wound up listening to, and this far joth's cases haven't really gotten the necessary support. Maybe this is just because my reads are vastly different from joth's.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 09, 2014, 01:31:56 am
Okay, just re-read all of D2.

jotheonah is the big voice of the day.  He's either playing a great town game, or faking it as scum.  I know that's a non-statement, but I'm wary of joth ever since the blitz performance he had with Robz.  I'm inclined to say we should follow his lead for now, but be ready to turn on him if he leads us down the mislynch path too easily.
I wouldn't necessarily agree with this assessment. Not that I'm saying joth is playing bad if he is town, but I don't see anyone "following his lead" here, really. Sure, he is the most active and has strong opinions, but since it seems very up in the air who we are lynching still, I'm hesitant to call him the "leading voice of day 2". I'd say the leading voice was whoever we wound up listening to, and this far joth's cases haven't really gotten the necessary support. Maybe this is just because my reads are vastly different from joth's and I'm worried your description becomes a self-filling prophecy.
Sent the message prematurely, finished the last sentence for clarity.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 09, 2014, 01:32:35 am
Okay, just re-read all of D2.

jotheonah is the big voice of the day.  He's either playing a great town game, or faking it as scum.  I know that's a non-statement, but I'm wary of joth ever since the blitz performance he had with Robz.  I'm inclined to say we should follow his lead for now, but be ready to turn on him if he leads us down the mislynch path too easily.
I wouldn't necessarily agree with this assessment. Not that I'm saying joth is playing bad if he is town, but I don't see anyone "following his lead" here, really. Sure, he is the most active and has strong opinions, but since it seems very up in the air who we are lynching still, I'm hesitant to call him the "leading voice of day 2". I'd say the leading voice was whoever we wound up listening to, and this far joth's cases haven't really gotten the necessary support. Maybe this is just because my reads are vastly different from joth's and I'm worried your description becomes a self-filling prophecy.
Sent the message prematurely, finished the last sentence for clarity.
And it should of course say self-fulfilling. Self-filling is.. something else.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 09, 2014, 01:39:49 am
I guess you are right -- he's not yet being followed.

I do think he's the main voice being heard today, though.  And that could be what he wants.  I mean, he denounced the XP wagon harshly today, and yet he was on it.  That's a classic scum move if he'd been able to stay off the wagon, but not as much while actually being a part of it.  It's the little things like that which worry me.

But at this point, I think he's not the right lynch for today.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 09, 2014, 01:57:58 am
I guess you are right -- he's not yet being followed.

I do think he's the main voice being heard today, though.  And that could be what he wants.  I mean, he denounced the XP wagon harshly today, and yet he was on it.  That's a classic scum move if he'd been able to stay off the wagon, but not as much while actually being a part of it.  It's the little things like that which worry me.

But at this point, I think he's not the right lynch for today.
Why do you say yet? Do you think he will be?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 09, 2014, 02:00:02 am
He isn't even necessarily the most active as far as I can tell, he just appears more sure than others. I don't think we are a herd of sheep that will buy into whatever someone's selling as long as they insist on it, in general I think we have a great, active town (especially now that you and Jimm have returned), and I think that people won't settle for joth's cases just because they are currently the only ones, but that they'll find their own if none of the existing ones please them.

Again joth, I really don't mean no disrespect. We just have very different reads this game!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 09, 2014, 08:05:26 am
I don't think it's time for even a semi claim yet. We've managed to keep even a single PR from being outed so far.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 09, 2014, 08:12:55 am
Vote Count 2.2

Witherweaver (1): faust
Jimmmmm (2): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin
faust (1): Jimmmmm
Hydrad (2): silverspawn, Witherweaver
Ichimaru Gin (1): jotheonah

Not Voting (2): ashersky, Eevee

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends on Wednesday, October 15, 7:30 PM FT.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 09, 2014, 10:24:51 am
I guess you are right -- he's not yet being followed.

I do think he's the main voice being heard today, though.  And that could be what he wants.  I mean, he denounced the XP wagon harshly today, and yet he was on it.  That's a classic scum move if he'd been able to stay off the wagon, but not as much while actually being a part of it.  It's the little things like that which worry me.

But at this point, I think he's not the right lynch for today.

Oh, the irony!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 09, 2014, 10:31:50 am
Okay, just re-read all of D2.

jotheonah is the big voice of the day.  He's either playing a great town game, or faking it as scum.  I know that's a non-statement, but I'm wary of joth ever since the blitz performance he had with Robz.  I'm inclined to say we should follow his lead for now, but be ready to turn on him if he leads us down the mislynch path too easily.

Eevee is around, basically his normal buddying self.  That used to be a tell, but not anymore.  I'm not giving him a town read at this time.

Jimmmmm's few posts have been scummy, but so few that it could just feel scummy.

IG is impossible to fairly assess now.  I do think his lynch isn't a bad idea, but I'm not sure he's scum or anything.  He's done some scummy stuff, but he reminds me of me in the early days just being scummy towny.

WW/Teproc are blending together.  That's normally a bad thing.

Faust is reminding me a bit of his Dune performance, so I'm wary.

I have no firm town reads, I guess.  That's sort of scary.  I got little out of analyzing the dead players, given they are not scum (so much better when we hit scum on D1).  I think a lynch sooner rather than later is good for D2.

Are we at the point where we want to know the setup we're in?  It's easily done with a semi-claim plan.

This list... I don't really see the reads from it. It's like "everyone's a bit scummy". I think scum would want to have some reads put down. Then again, I always fear that scumhunting techniques I use on others will fail on ashersky, but still, it feels a bit townie.

silverspawn isn't on this list. What do you think about him?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 09, 2014, 10:33:11 am
Oh, same with Hydrad, btw. I'm more interested in the silverspawn read, because of everything that happened, but it would also be nice to hear about Hydrad.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 09, 2014, 11:09:28 am
I don't think it's time for even a semi claim yet. We've managed to keep even a single PR from being outed so far.

That is a very reasonable, very standard reply that I could easily see coming from scum.

I don't know about the claims. Looking at the setup again... I have some ideas, but uh... I'm not sure how to formulate them without soft-claiming stuff. I can see some advantages to claiming definitely.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 09, 2014, 02:27:38 pm
Hey! No stalling! I know you guys are on the forums...

What does everyone think about ashersky, now that he's posted a bit more?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 09, 2014, 02:30:35 pm
Hey! No stalling! I know you guys are on the forums...

What does everyone think about ashersky, now that he's posted a bit more?

Absolutely nothing.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 09, 2014, 02:30:46 pm
asher feels a bit weird? As I don't see a bunch of confidence like I've seen in other games where he finds scum (or thinks hes found scum) and pushes them hard. But I still like Jimmm the most and would say I have a nullish on asher still.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 09, 2014, 02:35:25 pm
Quite null on Ash.  Slight, uh.. non-Ash feel from him. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 09, 2014, 02:59:31 pm
Hey! No stalling! I know you guys are on the forums...

What does everyone think about ashersky, now that he's posted a bit more?
Ash is difficult for me to read. He seems about normal here, although I don't like his comments on joth leading the day since I don't really trust him much at this point.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 09, 2014, 03:01:07 pm
Hey! No stalling! I know you guys are on the forums...

What does everyone think about ashersky, now that he's posted a bit more?
Ash is difficult for me to read. He seems about normal here, although I don't like his comments on joth leading the day since I don't really trust him much at this point.

Ambiguous pronoun.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 09, 2014, 03:14:06 pm
Hey! No stalling! I know you guys are on the forums...

What does everyone think about ashersky, now that he's posted a bit more?
Ash is difficult for me to read. He seems about normal here, although I don't like his comments on joth leading the day since I don't really trust him much at this point.

Ambiguous pronoun.
2nd him = I don't really trust joth much at this point.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 09, 2014, 03:16:20 pm
So you agreed with what Ash's comment said about Joth.. not that you didn't like the comment in a meta sense.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 09, 2014, 03:21:45 pm
So you agreed with what Ash's comment said about Joth.. not that you didn't like the comment in a meta sense.
I don't think that joth has so far had a ton of success in swaying people, but he has been vocal and active and has some supporters.
So I'd somewhat agree with Ash's comment. Yeah, it's not that I didn't like the comment in a meta sense, I just don't like the idea of joth leading town at this point (because I feel he's pretty scummy).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 09, 2014, 03:22:41 pm
I don't see Joth as scummy in the slightest.  If he didn't want to lynch you, would he be scummy?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 09, 2014, 03:26:46 pm
I don't see Joth as scummy in the slightest.  If he didn't want to lynch you, would he be scummy?
My read on him isn't OMGUS if that's what you mean.
I don't care for the attitude that he had D1 when he made some arguments about derphammering which I thought were kind of ludicrous. Trying to end any day super early is not good for town (barring PR results or something). So although his motivation to try and end things super quick may just be part of his meta, I see it as anti-town behavior.

He's not the scummiest, but I don't feel very confident that he's town either. I could easily see his behavior up until now as bold scum play.

Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 09, 2014, 03:29:20 pm
I don't see Joth as scummy in the slightest.  If he didn't want to lynch you, would he be scummy?
My read on him isn't OMGUS if that's what you mean.
I don't care for the attitude that he had D1 when he made some arguments about derphammering which I thought were kind of ludicrous. Trying to end any day super early is not good for town (barring PR results or something). So although his motivation to try and end things super quick may just be part of his meta, I see it as anti-town behavior.

He's not the scummiest, but I don't feel very confident that he's town either. I could easily see his behavior up until now as bold scum play.

How did you feel about Day 1 of Dice Mafia?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 09, 2014, 03:32:13 pm
I don't see Joth as scummy in the slightest.  If he didn't want to lynch you, would he be scummy?
My read on him isn't OMGUS if that's what you mean.
I don't care for the attitude that he had D1 when he made some arguments about derphammering which I thought were kind of ludicrous. Trying to end any day super early is not good for town (barring PR results or something). So although his motivation to try and end things super quick may just be part of his meta, I see it as anti-town behavior.

He's not the scummiest, but I don't feel very confident that he's town either. I could easily see his behavior up until now as bold scum play.

How did you feel about Day 1 of Dice Mafia?
I got what I thought was a ton of unfair heat early there as well. I really disliked what I saw as faust using pure dice rolls as evidence to lynch people, so we argued a lot about that.

So, if this is related to wanting to end days early, I was mostly mad that game at what I saw as a bunch of unproductive theory discussion that distracted from actual reads.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 09, 2014, 03:36:48 pm
I more meant about the day ending prematurely. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 09, 2014, 03:57:53 pm
I more meant about the day ending prematurely.
Oh. I guess we did lynch scum!Voltaire pretty early in that game. And it looks like Ash quickhammered him that day.

Well, how long was our D1 in this game compared to this one? I think both were approximately 30 pages or so. Did you want my opinion on something more specific about it?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 09, 2014, 04:05:47 pm
Well, it serves as an example that a quick day is not always bad for town.  (Well, unless you think it was bad for town there.)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 09, 2014, 04:09:14 pm
Well, it serves as an example that a quick day is not always bad for town.  (Well, unless you think it was bad for town there.)

I don't think Ichi is concerned with what's bad for town here.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 09, 2014, 04:11:08 pm
Well, it serves as an example that a quick day is not always bad for town.  (Well, unless you think it was bad for town there.)

I don't think Ichi is concerned with what's bad for town here.

Well clearly you think that, but that's the argument he's making:

I don't see Joth as scummy in the slightest.  If he didn't want to lynch you, would he be scummy?
My read on him isn't OMGUS if that's what you mean.
I don't care for the attitude that he had D1 when he made some arguments about derphammering which I thought were kind of ludicrous. Trying to end any day super early is not good for town (barring PR results or something). So although his motivation to try and end things super quick may just be part of his meta, I see it as anti-town behavior.

He's not the scummiest, but I don't feel very confident that he's town either. I could easily see his behavior up until now as bold scum play.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 09, 2014, 04:15:35 pm
Well, it serves as an example that a quick day is not always bad for town.  (Well, unless you think it was bad for town there.)

I don't think Ichi is concerned with what's bad for town here.
;)
Ash quickhammered Voltaire without even letting him claim and his instinct proved to be right that game. It could have just as easily been a mislynch or Volt could even have been a town PR. I am not saying that a quick day is bad in all circumstances. But when I see myself on the fast road to a mislynch and people proclaiming the numerous benefits of hammering people on accident and voting without giving any reasons, a quick day looks pretty bad to me.

There's a line between having too much discussion so scum can confuse people and gradually push the cases they want, and having too little so town has very little evidence from flips and not many people committed to wagons or had possible partner interactions. With all that went on D1, I think that having someone end the day at the point when joth was making all of these arguments would have been a very poor choice.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 09, 2014, 04:31:39 pm
Well, it serves as an example that a quick day is not always bad for town.  (Well, unless you think it was bad for town there.)

I don't think Ichi is concerned with what's bad for town here.
;)
Ash quickhammered Voltaire without even letting him claim and his instinct proved to be right that game. It could have just as easily been a mislynch or Volt could even have been a town PR. I am not saying that a quick day is bad in all circumstances. But when I see myself on the fast road to a mislynch and people proclaiming the numerous benefits of hammering people on accident and voting without giving any reasons, a quick day looks pretty bad to me.

There's a line between having too much discussion so scum can confuse people and gradually push the cases they want, and having too little so town has very little evidence from flips and not many people committed to wagons or had possible partner interactions. With all that went on D1, I think that having someone end the day at the point when joth was making all of these arguments would have been a very poor choice.

I don't think we can have this discussion productively without knowing your alignment. I think if we'd ended the day then we would have lynched you and not XP, and I think we would have lynched scum. So I hope history will ultimately vindicate me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 09, 2014, 04:41:10 pm
Clearly what everyone is saying is that as long as I'm the one to end the day early, we're all good.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 09, 2014, 05:26:15 pm
Clearly what everyone is saying is that as long as I'm the one to end the day early, we're all good.

Why didn't you hammer Ichi yesterday? :(
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 09, 2014, 05:26:29 pm
WAIT I KNOW!  ASH IS SCUM!  TOWN ASH WOULD HAVE HAMMERED
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 09, 2014, 05:33:55 pm
WAIT I KNOW!  ASH IS SCUM!  TOWN ASH WOULD HAVE HAMMERED

Vote: ash

Best case I've seen.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 10, 2014, 08:36:30 pm
Now what?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 11, 2014, 03:07:54 am
now we let this game stall until shortly before the deadline, when we will, due to lack of time, lynch you.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 11, 2014, 03:22:57 am
now we let this game stall until shortly before the deadline, when we will, due to lack of time, lynch you.
Sounds like you've given this a lot of thought. . .
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 11, 2014, 03:24:55 am
Well I have posted my thoughts already. I think you're scum. In fact, I think it's over 50%. I also think Hydrad could very well be scum.

I don't know how to keep a game from stalling on my own. I don't have anything new to say.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 11, 2014, 03:27:38 am
Well I have posted my thoughts already. I think you're scum. In fact, I think it's over 50%. I also think Hydrad could very well be scum.

I don't know how to keep a game from stalling on my own. I don't have anything new to say.

Any town reads?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 11, 2014, 03:30:40 am
I still think lynching WW is a good option here. I want to vote Jimmmmm for super lurking and not contributing, but sadly, that's not an alignment tell. joth could be scum, a little afraid of that - the stalling also supports his cause, because it means we will likely lynch Ichi. So yeah, I'd vote any of these I guess. I like WW best though.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 11, 2014, 04:50:33 am
town reads are you and eevee. mostly you.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 11, 2014, 08:46:48 am
Vote Count 2.3

Witherweaver (1): faust
Jimmmmm (2): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin
Hydrad (2): silverspawn, Witherweaver
Ichimaru Gin (1): jotheonah
ashersky (1): Jimmmmm

Not Voting (2): ashersky, Eevee

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends on Wednesday, October 15, 7:30 PM FT.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 11, 2014, 08:48:00 am
vote: Ichimaru Gin
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 11, 2014, 08:48:19 am
maybe that helps to get something going
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 11, 2014, 08:50:00 am
Yeah, let's start some wagons.

Vote: Jimmmmm
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 11, 2014, 08:53:36 am
I think we can do better than a lurker lynch. I mean, I think lurkers shouldn't always get away with just doing nothing, but in this game, the Ichi case is too good to do it.

If Ichi flips town, we can do Jimmm tomorrow.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 11, 2014, 11:17:41 am
Since there is no one on WW anymore, I'll vote: IG too.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 11, 2014, 11:30:40 am
I think Hydrad is the right choice.

My name is Witherweaver and I endorse this message.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 11, 2014, 11:35:05 am
I think we can do better than a lurker lynch. I mean, I think lurkers shouldn't always get away with just doing nothing, but in this game, the Ichi case is too good to do it.

If Ichi flips town, we can do Jimmm tomorrow.

I have no idea what's so good about the Ichi case. And, lining up mislynches? I might be warming up for a silver lynch...
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 11, 2014, 11:47:39 am
I think I have explained enough why I like the ichi lynch. And really, all you need to do is read joth's case.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 11, 2014, 12:11:12 pm
I think we can do better than a lurker lynch. I mean, I think lurkers shouldn't always get away with just doing nothing, but in this game, the Ichi case is too good to do it.

If Ichi flips town, we can do Jimmm tomorrow.

I have no idea what's so good about the Ichi case. And, lining up mislynches? I might be warming up for a silver lynch...

Do scum really line up mislynches like this?  I feel like it's one of those things that is always pointed out as a scum tell, but scum never actually do.  Though, Silver is new enough that he may not be aware of how often it's jumped on.

Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 11, 2014, 12:50:22 pm
I think we can do better than a lurker lynch. I mean, I think lurkers shouldn't always get away with just doing nothing, but in this game, the Ichi case is too good to do it.

If Ichi flips town, we can do Jimmm tomorrow.

I have no idea what's so good about the Ichi case. And, lining up mislynches? I might be warming up for a silver lynch...

Do scum really line up mislynches like this?  I feel like it's one of those things that is always pointed out as a scum tell, but scum never actually do.  Though, Silver is new enough that he may not be aware of how often it's jumped on.

Well, from my experience, when I'm scum, I think a lot about who can potentially be mislynched on future days... and "lining up" mislynches for me basically is these thoughts diffusing into posts.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 11, 2014, 12:52:29 pm
I think we can do better than a lurker lynch. I mean, I think lurkers shouldn't always get away with just doing nothing, but in this game, the Ichi case is too good to do it.

If Ichi flips town, we can do Jimmm tomorrow.
Man, what is the case on me really?
Me defending myself too much, again. We've only been in one game together before where I was town and got almost no heat. But I've defended myself similarly in nearly every other non-RMM setup. I know that there may be more to my case (I can't actually recall what it is--maybe my lack of a claim, but I can't believe that argument), but if people really want to look, they could go read some of D1 of dice mafia--and that should hopefully clear up my defensiveness.

Waiting until the very end of the deadline and then lynching is generally a bad idea. I understand if you guys want me as the "default" lynch of today, but I take the bolded line as you trying to convince yourself of how good my lynch is--when there's really not much substance behind the case on me. I agree that my flip should give a lot of information, so I can understand it from that point of view.

I also think the extreme lack of heat you've given so far hasn't neccessarily been healthy. I know that I distracted to a large degree from your early claim, but it still stands that you did it and got barely any heat for it.

PPE: 1
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 11, 2014, 02:51:54 pm
I think we can do better than a lurker lynch. I mean, I think lurkers shouldn't always get away with just doing nothing, but in this game, the Ichi case is too good to do it.

If Ichi flips town, we can do Jimmm tomorrow.

I have no idea what's so good about the Ichi case. And, lining up mislynches? I might be warming up for a silver lynch...

Do scum really line up mislynches like this?  I feel like it's one of those things that is always pointed out as a scum tell, but scum never actually do.  Though, Silver is new enough that he may not be aware of how often it's jumped on.

Well, from my experience, when I'm scum, I think a lot about who can potentially be mislynched on future days... and "lining up" mislynches for me basically is these thoughts diffusing into posts.

But aren't you careful not to let it into your posts? 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 11, 2014, 02:52:47 pm
I'm losing my scum read on Ichi, and that makes me a sad panda.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 11, 2014, 07:33:03 pm
Yeah, let's start some wagons.

Vote: Jimmmmm

vote: jimmmmm.  This is L-1.  Maybe it spurs him into action?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 12, 2014, 03:20:18 am
Ichi, what makes your case so good is primarily how your wagon shifted to XP in day one, secondary how you reacted when you thought you were hammered, and maybe third how you are overdefensive. that's not the main point.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 12, 2014, 07:27:18 am
But aren't you careful not to let it into your posts?

Well, that really depends... As scum, I usually try not to overthink what I'm doing, so that my behaviour looks more natural. I actually think I was called out in my first game as mafia (M31) for this exact thing - lining up mislynches. Since then I obviously got more experience and now I wouldn't do something like that as either alignment.

The thing about silverspawn is, in previous games he made it very clear that a major element of his play is to look townie. So I think if he knew this scum tell, he would have been careful not to let is in his post even if he's town. So we have to assume he didn't know about it. And in this case, I think it's a thought that scum is much more likely to have, because they know it's going to be a mislynch. As town, I want to lynch and see the flip and then do analysis from there and not just lynch the next player not regarding the new information I gained.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 12, 2014, 07:59:13 am
But aren't you careful not to let it into your posts?

Well, that really depends... As scum, I usually try not to overthink what I'm doing, so that my behaviour looks more natural. I actually think I was called out in my first game as mafia (M31) for this exact thing - lining up mislynches. Since then I obviously got more experience and now I wouldn't do something like that as either alignment.

The thing about silverspawn is, in previous games he made it very clear that a major element of his play is to look townie. So I think if he knew this scum tell, he would have been careful not to let is in his post even if he's town. So we have to assume he didn't know about it. And in this case, I think it's a thought that scum is much more likely to have, because they know it's going to be a mislynch. As town, I want to lynch and see the flip and then do analysis from there and not just lynch the next player not regarding the new information I gained.

this whole argument flies out the window if he turns out to be a good lynch though.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 12, 2014, 08:00:41 am
but yea, i didn't know about this scum tell. I assume what you are referring to is that I said "we can do Jimmm tomorrow if IG flips town", right?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 12, 2014, 09:56:50 am
but yea, i didn't know about this scum tell. I assume what you are referring to is that I said "we can do Jimmm tomorrow if IG flips town", right?

Yes, that's what I'm referring to.

Oh, and: prod time!

Request prod on Hydrad
Request prod on jotheonah
Request prod on Jimmmmm
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 12, 2014, 10:00:46 am
Quote
this whole argument flies out the window if he turns out to be a good lynch though.

you aren't responding to this. if we lynch jimmm today (which might happen, as it looks now) and he flips scum, you will drop the case, yes?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 12, 2014, 10:20:15 am
Quote
this whole argument flies out the window if he turns out to be a good lynch though.

you aren't responding to this. if we lynch jimmm today (which might happen, as it looks now) and he flips scum, you will drop the case, yes?

Sure, if we manage to lynch scum today, then there are much stronger cases to be made than this.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 12, 2014, 10:23:59 am
Ah I apologize for not posting more. I still like the Jimmm lynch the most.

as for the possible silver lining up lynches I don't think looking into it is a huge thing? I've had many thoughts like that as town but I usually don't post it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 12, 2014, 11:10:59 am
Quote
I've had many thoughts like that as town but I usually don't post it.

are you using the present perfect because you are not town in this game?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 12, 2014, 11:15:21 am
Quote
I've had many thoughts like that as town but I usually don't post it.

are you using the present perfect because you are not town in this game?

No. More like I havn't though about who I'm going to lynch the next day at all this game. I'm just trying to lynch someone and after we have more info then i try to figure out who is the next scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 12, 2014, 11:15:56 am
Quote
I've had many thoughts like that as town but I usually don't post it.

are you using the present perfect because you are not town in this game?

No. More like I haven't thought about who I'm going to lynch the next day at all this game. I'm just trying to lynch someone and after we have more info then i try to figure out who is the next scum.

edited spelling.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 12, 2014, 11:35:14 am
this could honestly be a scum slip. I'm not sure it is, but it could be. I already thought you were scum before though.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 12, 2014, 06:03:35 pm
We could all just lynch Hydrad....
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 12, 2014, 06:49:49 pm
We could all just lynch Hydrad....
I'd definitely prefer that over myself. However, I do end up mislynching him quite often. What's the case on him again?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 12, 2014, 06:54:57 pm
We could all just lynch Hydrad....
I'd definitely prefer that over myself. However, I do end up mislynching him quite often. What's the case on him again?

Cases are lame.  Go read him, see if you agree.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 12, 2014, 08:33:35 pm
but yea, i didn't know about this scum tell. I assume what you are referring to is that I said "we can do Jimmm tomorrow if IG flips town", right?

Yes, that's what I'm referring to.

Oh, and: prod time!

Request prod on Hydrad
Request prod on jotheonah
Request prod on Jimmmmm

I have been reading, I'm just out of things to say. Ichi lynch is best lynch. He's as scummy as he's been all game, but no one's listening to me. If you guys want to lynch Jimmmm, fine, but I'm not helping. I think <20 percent we hit scum there.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 12, 2014, 09:13:54 pm
It's not fair to say "no one is listening you". Ichi has been the largest wagon most of the game! Just doesn't seem to go through.

I don't have a town read on Jimmm, but it feels like we can do better than just lynching the guy with the least posts. I find it impossible to read Jimmm with this level of activity.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 12, 2014, 09:20:19 pm
I would rather lynch Hydrad than Jimmmmm. But Jimmmmm either needs to play the game or replace out.

For me it goes

Ichi>Eevee>Hydrad> | faust>Jimmmmm>ashersky>silverspawn> | Witherweaver>me
scummiest                                            meh                                                towniest

Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 12, 2014, 09:21:56 pm
Why is WW that towny?

It's incredible, we even remotely agree only on silverspawn and Ichi. Well, I guess I'd have ash somewhere in the middle too.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 12, 2014, 09:26:12 pm
Why is WW that towny?

It's incredible, we even remotely agree only on silverspawn and Ichi. Well, I guess I'd have ash somewhere in the middle too.
My question exactly.

At least some more people are around, so silver's plan of having the game stall and proxy mislynching me hopefully won't come to fulfillment.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 13, 2014, 03:56:44 am
Quote
At least some more people are around, so silver's plan of having the game stall and proxy mislynching me hopefully won't come to fulfillment.

I think it was pretty obvious that I wasn't serious with that. So why are you treating it as though I was?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 13, 2014, 06:04:57 am
It's not fair to say "no one is listening you". Ichi has been the largest wagon most of the game! Just doesn't seem to go through.

I don't have a town read on Jimmm, but it feels like we can do better than just lynching the guy with the least posts. I find it impossible to read Jimmm with this level of activity.

Well, on one hand, I agree with you about Jimmmmm, on the other hand, if his level of activity remains like that, we will never be able to get a read on him, which is problematic.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 13, 2014, 06:06:00 am
Eevee, you're not voting. Who do you want lynched?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 13, 2014, 06:07:07 am
this could honestly be a scum slip. I'm not sure it is, but it could be. I already thought you were scum before though.

This is scummy... no way that was a scumslip.

Vote: silverspawn let's try this.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 13, 2014, 06:08:39 am
Ash is also incredibly quiet this game... he's back from VLA now, right?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 13, 2014, 06:10:48 am
I'm not loving a Hydrad lynch. He's new-ish, not particularly scummy, and I feel that if he's scum, we are much more likely to catch him eventually than we are to catch, say, Jimmmmm.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 13, 2014, 06:49:45 am
Ash is also incredibly quiet this game... he's back from VLA now, right?

Yeah.  I put Jimmmmm to L-1 most recently.

I like vote: silverspawn

This game has been weird.  I think a flip and night would be helpful.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 13, 2014, 08:23:17 am
Quote
no way that was a scumslip.

no? Why not?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 13, 2014, 11:14:28 am
Quote
no way that was a scumslip.

no? Why not?

Why would it be? The sentence, as formulated, makes perfect sense coming from town.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 13, 2014, 11:23:25 am
just to make sure we're talking about the same thing

this sentence
Quote
I've had many thoughts like that as town but I usually don't post it.
makes perfect sense for town?

well I know I would never post it as town. But my perception is different from others, you thought I scum slipped in GoT mafia (well not you because you were modding), and I thought that was completely insane. I could see myself using this sentence if you cut the "as town" part. Or using a different time. But as is, i could see it being scum who didn't think enough for one moment.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 13, 2014, 11:29:47 am
question for silverspawn voters: do you think he's mafia or SK? Because mostly we've been talking about him as a possible SK because otherwise his day 1 VT claim seems too bold.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 13, 2014, 11:40:32 am
just to make sure we're talking about the same thing

this sentence
Quote
I've had many thoughts like that as town but I usually don't post it.
makes perfect sense for town?

well I know I would never post it as town. But my perception is different from others, you thought I scum slipped in GoT mafia (well not you because you were modding), and I thought that was completely insane. I could see myself using this sentence if you cut the "as town" part. Or using a different time. But as is, i could see it being scum who didn't think enough for one moment.

I'm basically saying as town I have had those thoughts. So it makes sense for you to do it as town also. I don't really understand why that doesn't make sense.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 13, 2014, 11:49:37 am
just to make sure we're talking about the same thing

this sentence
Quote
I've had many thoughts like that as town but I usually don't post it.
makes perfect sense for town?

well I know I would never post it as town. But my perception is different from others, you thought I scum slipped in GoT mafia (well not you because you were modding), and I thought that was completely insane. I could see myself using this sentence if you cut the "as town" part. Or using a different time. But as is, i could see it being scum who didn't think enough for one moment.

Well, the "as town" part must be in there, since it is a response to someone finding that kind of thing scummy; if you don't write "as town" here, it just stops making sense as a response. And what's that about the time? You're proposing

"I have many thoughts like that as town but I usually don't post it."

which is okay I guess, but I understand that you'd want to specify that these you not the thoughts you're having right now.

PPE Hydrad
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 13, 2014, 11:50:08 am
question for silverspawn voters: do you think he's mafia or SK? Because mostly we've been talking about him as a possible SK because otherwise his day 1 VT claim seems too bold.
[/quote

I think he's scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 13, 2014, 11:51:51 am
Quote fail.

What I want to say is, I don't really know how to differentiate between SK and mafia before we've had a flip to look for partners. Why is the VT claim bolder for mafia than it is for the SK?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 13, 2014, 11:58:24 am
the VT claim is mostly reasonable as a VT
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 13, 2014, 12:00:18 pm
Eevee, you're not voting. Who do you want lynched?
I could have sworn I was on IG. I would prefer WW, but he doesn't seem viable.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 13, 2014, 12:02:05 pm
silverspawn is like my least favorite lynch after my own.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 13, 2014, 12:37:08 pm
Quote fail.

What I want to say is, I don't really know how to differentiate between SK and mafia before we've had a flip to look for partners. Why is the VT claim bolder for mafia than it is for the SK?

I actually don't know. People were saying it before, but now I'm thinking about it I don't really get it. ash?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 13, 2014, 01:18:22 pm
Quote
At least some more people are around, so silver's plan of having the game stall and proxy mislynching me hopefully won't come to fulfillment.

I think it was pretty obvious that I wasn't serious with that. So why are you treating it as though I was?
I wasn't 100% sure you were joking. People have made some serious arguments this game that last minute lynches can be good because there's little time for scum to manipulate things. As it stands, I probably will be lynched if the game goes close to the deadline without much development, so if it's my mislynch you really want, that's one way to get it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 13, 2014, 04:40:10 pm
Had no internet at home yesterday.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 13, 2014, 04:47:25 pm
Ah I apologize for not posting more. I still like the Jimmm lynch the most.

as for the possible silver lining up lynches I don't think looking into it is a huge thing? I've had many thoughts like that as town but I usually don't post it.


Why don't you post  them?

Also, is the lack of agreement in plurality a scum slip?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 13, 2014, 04:48:10 pm
I'm not loving a Hydrad lynch. He's new-ish, not particularly scummy, and I feel that if he's scum, we are much more likely to catch him eventually than we are to catch, say, Jimmmmm.


Is there a good reason to think Jimmmmmmm is scum?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 13, 2014, 04:48:42 pm
Or are you proposing that it would be good to eliminate that possible risk?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 13, 2014, 04:49:21 pm
Hah, keep making fun of it. Once the game is over, I'm sure Hydrad will admit that he did in fact slip there. Okay, I'm not sure. But it might happen.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 13, 2014, 04:51:18 pm
Hah, keep making fun of it. Once the game is over, I'm sure Hydrad will admit that he did in fact slip there. Okay, I'm not sure. But it might happen.

I believe both that Hydrad is scum and that this was not a scum slip.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 13, 2014, 05:52:26 pm
I believe in scumslips, but Hydrad's post was not one.

He could still be scum, but not due to that post.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 13, 2014, 07:10:06 pm
Had no internet at home yesterday.
Ok. What lynch do you prefer best right now?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 14, 2014, 02:37:57 am
Or are you proposing that it would be good to eliminate that possible risk?

That was mainly my concern yes... if Jimmmmm keeps posting at this rate, how will we ever find out about his alignment?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 14, 2014, 08:36:47 am
Vote Count 2.4

Jimmmmm (2): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin
Hydrad (1): Witherweaver
Ichimaru Gin (3): jotheonah, silverspawn, Eevee
ashersky (1): Jimmmmm
silverspawn (2): faust, ashersky

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends on Wednesday, October 15, 7:30 PM FT.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 14, 2014, 09:25:41 am
Or are you proposing that it would be good to eliminate that possible risk?

That was mainly my concern yes... if Jimmmmm keeps posting at this rate, how will we ever find out about his alignment?

Yeah, I was just wondering if you had something that indicated to you that he was scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 14, 2014, 05:14:39 pm
Or are you proposing that it would be good to eliminate that possible risk?

That was mainly my concern yes... if Jimmmmm keeps posting at this rate, how will we ever find out about his alignment?

Yeah, I was just wondering if you had something that indicated to you that he was scum.

Well, his earlier attack on me felt weird... but that's that only thing, really.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 14, 2014, 06:04:22 pm
Or are you proposing that it would be good to eliminate that possible risk?

That was mainly my concern yes... if Jimmmmm keeps posting at this rate, how will we ever find out about his alignment?

Yeah, I was just wondering if you had something that indicated to you that he was scum.

Well, his earlier attack on me felt weird... but that's that only thing, really.

In what way was it an attack??
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 14, 2014, 11:37:50 pm
The Deadline's coming up very soon (approximately 1 day I think). Everyone should be thinking about who they really want to lynch today. I know that some (silver and joth especially) very much so want to lynch me. I of course do not want to be lynched today and so far Jimmmmm has done very little to make me think he is town. In recent games, I find that a lot of people are lurking more as scum and getting away with it for a surprising amount of time. I'm still happy with my vote on him, but will also consider alternative wagons.

At any rate, I'm going to bed and have class tomorrow, although I should be around for the deadline. And I might be able to check in before class tomorrow. So, I leave you all with my imploration to please consider everything that has occurred this game before auto-lynching me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 15, 2014, 12:14:46 am
popsquiz:

Would like to lynch: silverspawn, jimmmm, witherweaver
informative lynch: ichi, joth, eevee
null: hydrad, faust


Everyone else could do this.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 15, 2014, 01:08:01 am
Okay, everyone needs to take responsibility and we need to get a lynch through.


Want to lynch: IG, WW

Would lynch: joth, maaaaybe ash

No opinion: Jimmm, maaaaybe ash

Would actively oppose lynching: silverspawn, faust, Hydrad


All rows are in the order of certainty.

I feel my vote is best served on IG because not enough people want WW (or joth), but if that's mistaken, those wagons have my vote.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 04:08:25 am
want: Hydrad, IG
okay with: Jimmmm, Eevee, WW
won't lynch: ash, faust, joth

I was calling Eevee towny before, but I might be fooled too easily. Though, he's not really up for debate anyway, so that doesn't really matter.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 15, 2014, 07:05:32 am
Want to lynch: WW, silverspawn, Jimmmmm

Would lynch: Hydrad, joth, ash

Won't lynch: Eevee, IG
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 15, 2014, 07:32:21 am
Vote Count 2.4

Jimmmmm (2): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin
Hydrad (1): Witherweaver
Ichimaru Gin (3): jotheonah, silverspawn, Eevee
ashersky (1): Jimmmmm
silverspawn (2): faust, ashersky

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends on Wednesday, October 15, 7:30 PM FT.

That's in 12 hours!

admin note: I may or may not be on at deadline.  If not, you can expect a flip by 10:00PM forum time (unless it happens sooner)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 15, 2014, 08:04:48 am
That's three for WW so far...
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 15, 2014, 08:36:10 am
I'll be available to move my vote for the next 7-8 hours.

We need to coordinate a lynch. Everyone should move their vote accordingly.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 08:44:46 am
Would lynch: Ichi

that's my list.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 08:45:58 am
nah, I'm just kidding. I'll post a real one.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 08:49:47 am
want to lynch very much: Ichi
would be ok if the lynch ends up being: Hydrad, Eevee, Jimmmmm
would be less ok lynching: ash, faust
won't lynch: me, Witherweaver, silverspawn
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 09:07:31 am
I think hydrad may be happening

vote: Hydrad
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 15, 2014, 09:11:58 am
I'm around now, off to bed soon and probably won't be around at deadline.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 09:12:57 am
Then move your vote off of ash
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 15, 2014, 09:13:54 am
I'm around now, off to bed soon and probably won't be around at deadline.

Any reads?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 15, 2014, 09:20:21 am
FYI, I'm busy for another ~5 hours, will then move my vote where it seems best, and check in again before I go to sleep.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 15, 2014, 09:20:40 am
Then move your vote off of ash

Why off of ash in particular?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 15, 2014, 09:21:20 am
Then move your vote off of ash

Why off of ash in particular?

I don't think your vote is on anyone else currently ;)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 15, 2014, 09:21:48 am
Then move your vote off of ash

Why off of ash in particular?
Because deadline is in 10 hours and ash isn't getting lynched.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 09:22:13 am
I think hydrad may be happening

vote: Hydrad

See this is exactly what I didn't want to see happening. Stick to your guns, silver! Let's make Ichi the default lynch!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 09:26:32 am
I think hydrad may be happening

vote: Hydrad

See this is exactly what I didn't want to see happening. Stick to your guns, silver! Let's make Ichi the default lynch!

I think Hydrad was on more lists. That's the only reason.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 09:30:08 am
Good: Hydrad, Ichi
Meh: Jimmm, Ash, Faust, Silver
Medium Meh: Eevee,
Bad: Joth

Is that everyone?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 15, 2014, 09:32:41 am
I prefer Ichi to Hydrad. Vote: Ichi
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 09:33:12 am
I prefer Ichi to Hydrad. Vote: Ichi

well then I'll

vote: Ichi

aswell
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 15, 2014, 09:33:15 am
What about Hydrad's behavior here differs from all the other times he has been mislynched?

I feel dumb defending him because most of my townread on him stems from almost everyone else wanting to lynch him for seemingly no reason.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 09:33:29 am
I prefer Ichi to Hydrad. Vote: Ichi

For whys?!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 15, 2014, 09:34:00 am
I prefer Ichi to Hydrad. Vote: Ichi

For whys?!
Why Hydrad? Serious question, has there even been a case?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 09:34:12 am
L-1

I didn't think it would be that close. Whew. don't hammer.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 15, 2014, 09:35:22 am
L-1

I didn't think it would be that close. Whew. don't hammer.
I agree with the principle, but it's pretty likely Ichi isn't a pr here.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 09:43:21 am
I prefer Ichi to Hydrad. Vote: Ichi

For whys?!
Why Hydrad? Serious question, has there even been a case?

He is the scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 09:44:17 am
I'm pretty sure I've typed it up before in response to someone asking (Faust I think).  Also he's been very absent from this game in particular, which doesn't happen for him.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 15, 2014, 09:52:16 am
Not sold. :)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 09:54:50 am
^ Scum partner :)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 15, 2014, 10:07:32 am
I'm here at work. I'll do the list when I'm on break of who I want to lynch.

also sorry WW. I guess you can't really believe me at this time but I'm posting less because my work schedule changed and I havn't been able to be online as much while at work. I'm still trying to be a part of all the discussions though. But this might be more how I play for a bit unless my work changes times again.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 10:18:21 am
Can anyone (other than Hydrad) convince why I should not vote for Hydrad?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 10:34:43 am
Can anyone (other than Hydrad) convince why I should not vote for Hydrad?

I'll give it a go. Letting Ichi get away and last-minute lynching Hydrad feels extremely reminiscent of the ending of day 1 to me and I have no reason to believe it will end differently.

Someone being on most everybody's "would lynch" list is a pretty good indication they're town anyway.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 15, 2014, 11:20:09 am
ok here is my list

want to lynch: Jimmmm, WW
would lynch: faust, joth
don't know: eevee, asher, silver?
oppose: IG, silver?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 11:21:47 am
yea so, let's just do Ichi. He is at L-1.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 11:24:03 am
Can anyone (other than Hydrad) convince why I should not vote for Hydrad?

I'll give it a go. Letting Ichi get away and last-minute lynching Hydrad feels extremely reminiscent of the ending of day 1 to me and I have no reason to believe it will end differently.

Someone being on most everybody's "would lynch" list is a pretty good indication they're town anyway.

I'm not sure Hydrad is on everybody's "would lynch" list.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 15, 2014, 01:08:13 pm
I am a town Psychologist.

I diagnosed Ashersky last night and was told he does not have the capability to kill.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 01:15:08 pm
Hmm.. makes the resistance to claiming on Day 1 make some sense.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 02:46:29 pm
why investigate ashersky?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 02:49:36 pm
oh man, I just re-read the setup and the SK is 2-shot investigative immune, which is crazy powerful.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 15, 2014, 02:53:04 pm
why investigate ashersky?
He's probably the hardest person for me to read in this game, and I think he's a very strong town player especially when people don't doubt his alignment. This doesn't completely clear him, but it mostly does to me.

PPE: 1
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 02:54:15 pm
baaah I'm not sure whether to believe this claim. it's actually a pretty good one.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 02:55:41 pm
I think I believe Ichi.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 03:03:14 pm
say more
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 03:06:20 pm
Mafia does have fakeclaims (-> setup), so there is no reason why it could not be made up. But it's a pretty strong role, so I'd be okay with not lynching him today.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 15, 2014, 03:07:36 pm
I have to go to class like right now. I can be around close to the deadline (starting around 6:20 FT when I get out of class), but only on my phone.
Not 100% sure where to put my vote at the moment, I still like a Jimmmmm lynch--although silverspawn has been pretty suspicious to me as well.

PPE: 1
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 03:08:25 pm
Me or Ichi? 

Okay, setup says scum get safe fake claims, so maybe.  But why wouldn't he use his fake claim Day 1?  Scum mentality would be to claim so that he wouldn't get lynched.. worry about arguing why he's still alive later.  I don't think he'd be so forward thinking to think "Well, if I really was an investigator, I wouldn't claim with no result because that doesn't help town.  I'd try to fight my lynch and claim with something useful later."  That's much more likely to come from town, and would only come from scum if they're thinking really big picture with all the contingencies.  Ichi has been scum, like, once?

Investigating Ash makes sense.. it's probably what I would do here, unless I had reason to do something different based on how Day 1 went.  Especially this game, Ash is showing nothing (to me) that looks like scum!Ash or town!Ash, so I'd definitely want to know. 

PPE: 2
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 03:10:38 pm
Quote
Okay, setup says scum get safe fake claims, so maybe.  But why wouldn't he use his fake claim Day 1?  Scum mentality would be to claim so that he wouldn't get lynched.. worry about arguing why he's still alive later.  I don't think he'd be so forward thinking to think "Well, if I really was an investigator, I wouldn't claim with no result because that doesn't help town.  I'd try to fight my lynch and claim with something useful later."  That's much more likely to come from town, and would only come from scum if they're thinking really big picture with all the contingencies.  Ichi has been scum, like, once?

This is a good point.

unvote

If Ichi is not scum, that makes me feel worse about the Hydrad lynch too. So, at this point, maybe Jimmm is the best option.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 03:12:27 pm
Why?  Because Hydrad was defending Ichi?  That could easily happen with scum!Hydrad and town!Ichi.  In fact it's more likely than scum!Hydrad and scum!Ichi.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 15, 2014, 03:17:25 pm
WW I've never seen you tunnel on someone this hard. Are you even considering if anyone else could be scum? do you have an ideas of who my partners would be if I was scum? It seems that no matter what happens at this point your just going to stick to the idea that I'm scum.

Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 03:17:46 pm
Nevermind what I said. I thought Hydrad switched from the Ichi wagon day1, but he actually didn't, he was never on it. The point against him (in addition to the fact that he plays differently) was how he sneaked onto the XP, and that still applies.

for some reaosn this game is confusing. I also keep almost switching up IG and XP. It was so much easier before XP changed his avatar.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 03:20:45 pm
By the way... I mmight not be around for the deadline too. I didn't even consider that because I used to have time all the time for the past 2 months, but now the semester has started

*checks time*

Oh yea, I'm absolutely not here for the deadline. There is no way I can stay up that long.

So... Hydrad or Jimmm? It'd be great if we could do one of them.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 03:22:07 pm
vote: Hydrad

That's L-3. He only has two votes (WW and me)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 03:22:58 pm
vote: Hydrad

WW makes some good points. We can worry about IG tomorrow if he survives the night.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 03:23:54 pm
WW I've never seen you tunnel on someone this hard. Are you even considering if anyone else could be scum? do you have an ideas of who my partners would be if I was scum? It seems that no matter what happens at this point your just going to stick to the idea that I'm scum.

Do you have any great ideas on who is scum? :)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 15, 2014, 03:24:40 pm
WW I've never seen you tunnel on someone this hard. Are you even considering if anyone else could be scum? do you have an ideas of who my partners would be if I was scum? It seems that no matter what happens at this point your just going to stick to the idea that I'm scum.

Do you have any great ideas on who is scum? :)

Jimmm and you are my first 2 ideas. :)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 03:25:07 pm
WW I've never seen you tunnel on someone this hard. Are you even considering if anyone else could be scum? do you have an ideas of who my partners would be if I was scum? It seems that no matter what happens at this point your just going to stick to the idea that I'm scum.

Do you have any great ideas on who is scum? :)

Jimmm and you are my first 2 ideas. :)

Any good ideas?

Why Jimmmmmmmmm?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 15, 2014, 03:25:39 pm
WW I will say you are acting weird. it feels like you avoid any questions I ask of you this game and only answer if someone else prompts you too.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 15, 2014, 03:26:36 pm
WW I've never seen you tunnel on someone this hard. Are you even considering if anyone else could be scum? do you have an ideas of who my partners would be if I was scum? It seems that no matter what happens at this point your just going to stick to the idea that I'm scum.

Do you have any great ideas on who is scum? :)

Jimmm and you are my first 2 ideas. :)

Any good ideas?

Why Jimmmmmmmmm?

POE mainly. most people here I have a decent towny vibe from. I think the chances Jimmm is scum is extremely high from this.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 03:44:21 pm
Are you referring to these questions?

WW I've never seen you tunnel on someone this hard. Are you even considering if anyone else could be scum? do you have an ideas of who my partners would be if I was scum? It seems that no matter what happens at this point your just going to stick to the idea that I'm scum.

You probably don't want a response, because the response is that these are kind of standard scum retaliations to someone suspecting you.

"Do you have any ideas of who my partners would be if I was scum?" sounds a lot like "I've been doing a great job distancing myself from my scum partners, so just try to make an argument there!"

But I can respond:

I have tunneled people hard before, by the way.  In fact, I usually do.

I'm obviously considering other people can be scum.  In fact, they have to.  You know, given that there has to be more than one. 

I have zero ideas of who your partners could be.  Well, not Ichi, I think.  Jimmmm is a possibility.  If you're scum then right now you need to get traction on someone else.  Do you choose two town players or a town and a partner?  My standard scum thing my first couple games was to keep one town and one partner in my "I want to lynch these guys!" list. The second is risky but helps you somewhat in the case that one of you flips.  Both Jimmmm and myself are probably equally possible to get lynched based on people's preferences, so you have the choice of which one to pursue.  Of course you don't actually want Jimmm to flip in this case, but then again you aren't actually voting for him. 

Jimmmm is somewhat less likely since he's in more serious danger of getting lynched.  I would only keep my partner on the "I want to lynch" when they're in a pretty safe position.  Of course this is very transparent once someone looks at it, so I probably wouldn't do it now.  You might, though.  So I'd put Jimmm at slightly less likely to be partner.

Ash is possible because he's listed you as so very, very null.  Can Ash be Mafia and turn up unable to kill?  I'm not sure. 

Eevee looks good based on his soft aversion to your wagon.

Not sure who else.  Really this kind of analysis is done after the flip, not before.  And I don't recall a  lot of instances where town that is in danger of being lynched really asks for this.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 15, 2014, 04:01:56 pm
ah well I guess I was slightly reffering to a few days ago too. when I would ask you things and you wouldn't answer untill someone else promted. I'm ok with you not answering all the time I just found it interesting.

Also thanks for letting me know how you see it though.

I'm just worried now though that since there isn't much time left in the day I'm just going to get lynched because of no other options and then we are at mylo tomorrow.

I really think we should do Jimmm
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 04:08:29 pm
guys, I need to go soon. Can someone tell me if I should rather put my vote on Jimmm or Hydrad?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 04:13:14 pm
I say Hydrad.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 04:15:18 pm
Let me check the lists

Hydrad: faust, WW,

jimmmm: ash, faust, joth

and some more meh's and middles leaning towards Jimmm. It would not be bad. What Jimmm is doing is not good for town. That's kind of a policy argument though.

Quote
I say Hydrad.
well duh
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 04:16:17 pm
there is more support for Jimmm atm though. I mean, I think I like Hydrad more, also because it would reward my reread. But if I put my vote on Hydrad and then go afk, and that doesn't happen, bad.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 04:17:37 pm
Is it scummy from me if I say something like, Hydrad claim or I put my vote on you before I go afk?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 04:19:31 pm
vote: Jidrammmm
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 15, 2014, 04:20:23 pm
I'm around until deadline.  I believe Ichi enough that he should not be lynched for days.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 15, 2014, 04:21:39 pm
Well, that was unnecessary.

Vote: Jimmmmm for now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 04:22:06 pm
Hydrad, claim or I put my vote on you before I go afk. You got 15 minutes.

I mean, what are the chances that both Hydrad and Ichi are PR's? pretty low. If hydrad claims a PR, chances are he is just scum. If he is a VT, we don't give any information away. And we want to lynch hydrad, so he will have to claim anyway.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 15, 2014, 04:27:12 pm
Hydrad, claim or I put my vote on you before I go afk. You got 15 minutes.

I mean, what are the chances that both Hydrad and Ichi are PR's? pretty low. If hydrad claims a PR, chances are he is just scum. If he is a VT, we don't give any information away. And we want to lynch hydrad, so he will have to claim anyway.

ok I can claim if others think its a good idea. What do other people think? should I claim?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 04:31:41 pm
Isn't it Mafia that is investigation immune and not SK?  Someone said it was SK.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 15, 2014, 04:33:15 pm
Isn't it Mafia that is investigation immune and not SK?  Someone said it was SK.

I think SK has 2shot JOAT also.

Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 04:35:47 pm
you got like 2 min or so left.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 15, 2014, 04:38:39 pm
VT
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 04:39:22 pm
Mafia Goon

okay
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 15, 2014, 04:40:20 pm
Mafia Goon

okay

did you want me to make something up?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 04:40:29 pm
Mafia Goon

okay

I see what you did there...
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 04:41:27 pm
well this sucks now I still don't know whom to vote for. My gut says Hydrad is scum, I also want Hydrad to be scum because I then I'd be right about my analysis of his behavior, but at the same time, I don't want to let Jimmm get away with doing almost nothing, like he did in Zelda Mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 04:42:22 pm
would scum!Hydrad claim VT? WW, any strong opinion here?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 04:42:51 pm
Isn't it Mafia that is investigation immune and not SK?  Someone said it was SK.

I think SK has 2shot JOAT also.

Okay, one of the shots is investigation immune.  But he can only use that once.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 04:43:18 pm
would scum!Hydrad claim VT? WW, any strong opinion here?

You did just tell him "I'm not believing you if you claim a PR". 

Even if you didn't, we probably wouldn't believe him if he claimed a PR.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 04:44:25 pm
Quote
You did just tell him "I'm not believing you if you claim a PR". 

oh I did didn't I? that probably wasn't the smartest thing I did this game.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 15, 2014, 04:46:46 pm
well okay so...

vote: Hydrad

I just really need to go to sleep.

If we lynch him, at least we only lose another VT
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 04:47:47 pm
guys I may have been hasty in my town read on silverspawn
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 04:54:17 pm
guys I may have been hasty in my town read on silverspawn

I have been getting a bit of a bad feeling as well.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 15, 2014, 04:57:39 pm
my class is just about to start.  I will be back in 1.5 hours for sure.  I could do a silvers pawn lynch today.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 15, 2014, 05:07:41 pm
Can someone show me where mafia have fake claims?  Some of you were stating this, but it isn't in the setup post.  Sounds like a scumslip to me.
Title: Re: Mafia ?? : Silo Mafia - Signups Open - Setup Coming Soon
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 05:09:39 pm
Mechanics:
- All roles will be used according to mafiascum specification unless otherwise noted below.
- Daystart
- Mafia JOAT is an option of Strongman and Ninja (each can only be used once) and is not an assigned role, instead it is universal for the mafia team. But is instead a role that any alive mafia player can use it while performing the night kill.
- Mafia Investigation Immune is universal. It will return results of "Not Goon" to Goon Cops, "Not Killed" to Detectives, "Can't Kill" to Psychologists and "Didn't Target Anyone" to Watchers.
- Traitor does not know the identity of Mafia Partners unless it is added on as a bonus. Traitor will be informed at day start of the Mafia's identities in a PM if that add-on is selected.
- Mafia does not know the identity of the Traitor unless it is added on as a bonus. The Mafia will be informed at day start of the Mafia's identities in their quicktopic if that add-on is selected.
- Flavor will indicate if a player was killed by multiple factions, but will not indicate which alignment performed specific kills.
- When the Traitor dies, if at least one Mafia Goon is still alive one will be chosen at random to inherit the Roleblocking role. This Goon will be transformed from a Goon to a Mafia Roleblocker.
- If the Mafia target the Traitor with a NK, the Traitor will not die unless mafia is using a strongman kill. Otherwise, the Traitor will be recruited and become a Mafia Roleblocker and be given access to the quicktopic.
- The Traitor can Roleblock a Mafia NK.
- If the Traitor will inherit the NK and become a Mafia Roleblocker if is the only Mafia player alive.
- Goon Cop will return results of Goon or Not Goon.
- Detective will return results of having killed or not killed.
- Psychlogist will return results of being capable of killing or not capable. But if a kill has been performed previously, the result will be falsified. Traitors are not capable of killing until they have been converted into Mafia Roleblockers
- Roles cannot target themselves.
- Roles will not be indicative of alignment, except for one exception that will not be disclosed. All other roles will be rolled randomly.
- Mafia will have fakeclaims.

Title: Re: Mafia ?? : Silo Mafia - Signups Open - Setup Coming Soon
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 05:10:17 pm
- Mafia will have fakeclaims.

BUt I assumed that meant flavor claims.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 05:11:13 pm
Huh, uh... why would you assume that?

I assumed it meant roles, because this looks like a setup where it's very hard for Mafia to fake claim a PR.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 15, 2014, 05:12:05 pm
Oh.  Thanks.

Do you think that means roles, though?  Or flavor?

Matrix setups are supposed to be semi-open, in that no one knows the exact setup right off the bat.  A fake roleclaim (like Psych, for example) only works if it is actually possible in the setup.  But if it is possible in the setup, then a townie has the role, so the fakeclaim gets counterclaimed.  If it isn't possible, no one has it, and when a few others flip, the fake claimer is caught.

So I don't see how mafia can have fake role claims.  I think that means flavor claims.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 15, 2014, 05:12:59 pm
Huh, uh... why would you assume that?

I assumed it meant roles, because this looks like a setup where it's very hard for Mafia to fake claim a PR.

I just answered this.

Mafia have a safe claim -- VT.  There's plenty of VTs in the setup.  If they want to claim a PR to survive, they claim one they know is NOT in the game based on whatever add-ons they got.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 15, 2014, 05:13:43 pm
Jimmmmm (3): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin, faust
Hydrad (3): Witherweaver, silverspawn, joth
Ichimaru Gin (2): Eevee, jimmmmm
ashersky (1): Jimmmmm
silverspawn (1): ashersky


This is the latest vote count.  Faust just left silver, and joth and others seem to be wary.  I think we could make that happen.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 15, 2014, 05:15:05 pm
Mafia does have fakeclaims (-> setup), so there is no reason why it could not be made up. But it's a pretty strong role, so I'd be okay with not lynching him today.

Me or Ichi? 

Okay, setup says scum get safe fake claims, so maybe.  But why wouldn't he use his fake claim Day 1?  Scum mentality would be to claim so that he wouldn't get lynched.. worry about arguing why he's still alive later.  I don't think he'd be so forward thinking to think "Well, if I really was an investigator, I wouldn't claim with no result because that doesn't help town.  I'd try to fight my lynch and claim with something useful later."  That's much more likely to come from town, and would only come from scum if they're thinking really big picture with all the contingencies.  Ichi has been scum, like, once?

Investigating Ash makes sense.. it's probably what I would do here, unless I had reason to do something different based on how Day 1 went.  Especially this game, Ash is showing nothing (to me) that looks like scum!Ash or town!Ash, so I'd definitely want to know. 

PPE: 2



These are the two posts that mention fakeclaims.  Either they are town slips, not realizing how a matrix setup is supposed to work, or scumslips because they actually know how the fake claims worked.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 05:17:17 pm
Okay, I guess that makes sense. 

Quote
To clarify here are the 8 options:

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

So each Mafia setup has two possibilities.  They can't know which one they're in until something flips.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 05:18:13 pm
Mafia does have fakeclaims (-> setup), so there is no reason why it could not be made up. But it's a pretty strong role, so I'd be okay with not lynching him today.

Me or Ichi? 

Okay, setup says scum get safe fake claims, so maybe.  But why wouldn't he use his fake claim Day 1?  Scum mentality would be to claim so that he wouldn't get lynched.. worry about arguing why he's still alive later.  I don't think he'd be so forward thinking to think "Well, if I really was an investigator, I wouldn't claim with no result because that doesn't help town.  I'd try to fight my lynch and claim with something useful later."  That's much more likely to come from town, and would only come from scum if they're thinking really big picture with all the contingencies.  Ichi has been scum, like, once?

Investigating Ash makes sense.. it's probably what I would do here, unless I had reason to do something different based on how Day 1 went.  Especially this game, Ash is showing nothing (to me) that looks like scum!Ash or town!Ash, so I'd definitely want to know. 

PPE: 2



These are the two posts that mention fakeclaims.  Either they are town slips, not realizing how a matrix setup is supposed to work, or scumslips because they actually know how the fake claims worked.

Mine was specifically founded upon the line "Mafia will have fakeclaims." line in the setup, which I took to mean roles.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 15, 2014, 05:20:32 pm
Mine was specifically founded upon the line "Mafia will have fakeclaims." line in the setup, which I took to mean roles.

Well, I mean, that's what you have to say, right?

Generally speaking, I think I believe you.  But you are scary, so it could be a planned townslip for sure.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 15, 2014, 05:20:54 pm
I prefer a silverspawn lynch at this point.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 05:27:55 pm
Mine was specifically founded upon the line "Mafia will have fakeclaims." line in the setup, which I took to mean roles.

Well, I mean, that's what you have to say, right?

Generally speaking, I think I believe you.  But you are scary, so it could be a planned townslip for sure.

Well probably, yes, but it's true.  I was specifically thinking about how to consider claims this game, I think back during Day 1 when (I think) Ichi indicated he wouldn't claim (after the part where he thought he was lynched but was still the candidate).  I thought maybe scum wouldn't want to claim because they couldn't safely claim a PR because they couldn't know what setup they're in.  And even if they did know what setup they're in, and they claim something not in that setup, a town having a certain PR (or combination) could prove that fake claim impossible.  So it seemed very dangerous.  So I looked at the setup post and saw the line about fake safeclaims and thought they had safe role claims.

Of course I guess there never has been a game where scum gets PRs to fake claim. 

So now that I think about it, my whole line of thinking was pretty wrong.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 15, 2014, 05:44:57 pm
Well this is unfortunate. I don't really want to lynch any of the viable candidates now.

Probably still like IG best, of the realistic options.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 15, 2014, 05:45:16 pm
Vote Count 2.5

Jimmmmm (3): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin, faust
Hydrad (3): Witherweaver, jotheonah, silverspawn
Ichimaru Gin (2): Eevee, Jimmmmm
silverspawn (1): ashersky

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends on Wednesday, October 15, 7:30 PM FT.

That's in less than 2 hours!

admin note: I may or may not be on at deadline.  If not, you can expect a flip by 10:00PM forum time (unless it happens sooner)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 05:45:27 pm
I would rather not lynch silver today.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 05:52:59 pm
Well this is unfortunate. I don't really want to lynch any of the viable candidates now.

Probably still like IG best, of the realistic options.

Huh?  Rly?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 15, 2014, 06:03:54 pm
Well this is unfortunate. I don't really want to lynch any of the viable candidates now.

Probably still like IG best, of the realistic options.

Huh?  Rly?
Well I don't like Hydrad, I'm very lukewarm about Jimmm and you or joth don't seem viable.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 15, 2014, 06:04:55 pm
I understand IG is a long shot too, but there is the advantage that we verify his result if he flips town. I could see him being more aware and in control of the situation than he let on yesterday and now realizing fakeclaim is a strong play for scum (which it is, especially in a seemingly hopeless situation such as IG's).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 15, 2014, 06:05:36 pm
I would hate to throw my support behind a wagon I don't believe in, but I also understand having your vote somewhere where it doesn't count this close to the deadline is very bad.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 06:06:30 pm
I understand IG is a long shot too, but there is the advantage that we verify his result if he flips town. I could see him being more aware and in control of the situation than he let on yesterday and now realizing fakeclaim is a strong play for scum (which it is, especially in a seemingly hopeless situation such as IG's).

the things you say make sense and also pretty much kill my theory that you two are on a team together.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 15, 2014, 06:08:57 pm
I understand IG is a long shot too, but there is the advantage that we verify his result if he flips town. I could see him being more aware and in control of the situation than he let on yesterday and now realizing fakeclaim is a strong play for scum (which it is, especially in a seemingly hopeless situation such as IG's).

the things you say make sense and also pretty much kill my theory that you two are on a team together.
That theory did need to be killed, so I'm glad to hear!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 06:13:54 pm
I can't see Ichi being a good lynch today.  I mean.. if he's not really the psychologist then:

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

We're in one of the four left.  Someone could have a PR that disprove this, right?  If I'm a 1-shot BP townie, then we do not have a psychologist, for instance.  That takes care of two setups.  Maybe that's all that can be cleared with one piece of knowledge.  With two pieces, I'm sure more can be cleared. 

More flips or a mass claim can probably go pretty far with verifying Ichi's claim.  Ash?  You're the setup plan guy.

Either way.. doesn't make sense to lynch Ichi without more info, I think.  My hunch now is that he's town and telling the truth.

Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 15, 2014, 06:20:27 pm
ok class just let out.  I'm here with my vote.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 06:21:03 pm
we are not rushing a mass claim with 40 minutes left in the day
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 06:22:10 pm
how does everybody feel about faust?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 06:23:39 pm
I was re-reading my own summary of my day 1 re-read and I noticed that faust egged on the XP lynch without actually voting.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 06:29:47 pm
no, this is crazy. I think we need to pick between Hydrad, Ichi, and Jimmmm.

Hydrad pros
A lot of low level scummy things
hasn't contributed a ton, so no big loss if town
claimed VT, so again no big loss if town

Hydrad cons
Just not quite feeling it

Ichi pros
Lynch would still be quite informational
has been pretty scummy a lot

Ichi cons
Claim seemed convincing
if true, claim is a powerful town role

Jimmmmm pros
Can't read him at all cause lurks, so having him out of the picture would be great
Could well be scum
again, no big loss
taking a stand against lurking seems good

Jimmmmm cons
Hasn't claimed, could be a good power role
Could vry well just be lurky town
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 06:30:04 pm
ok, yeah, I'm good with Hydrad. This was a good exercise.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 15, 2014, 06:30:20 pm
I'm ok with a faust lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 06:30:45 pm
I'm pretty much perfectly aligned with Joth this game.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 15, 2014, 06:31:46 pm
deadline in like 59 minutes.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 15, 2014, 06:36:59 pm
Joth, when you put it that way (and I feel the information you listed was accurate and fair), Jimm seems far and away the best choice.

My prefered lynches aren't happening, so I'll Vote: Jimmm. I feel scum is making me compromise though. :/
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 06:37:09 pm
Well I'm not going to be on.  Leaving work now and I'm without my phone, so no mobile access. 

I'm staying on Hydrad.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 15, 2014, 06:37:45 pm
Joth, when you put it that way (and I feel the information you listed was accurate and fair), Jimm seems far and away the best choice.

My prefered lynches aren't happening, so I'll Vote: Jimmm. I feel scum is making me compromise though. :/

Italic part feels like a very scummy thing to say.  It makes me think Jimmm is town and Eevee is scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 15, 2014, 06:38:26 pm
Has anyone but me even reread Hydrad? He has been reasonably active (we've all been very active except for Jimm and maybe ash), and his posts are rich on content. The "scummy things" are just Hydrad things, unless you have something specific it's just the scummy vibe everyone in the world ever always gets from him for whatever reason.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 15, 2014, 06:38:59 pm
Joth, when you put it that way (and I feel the information you listed was accurate and fair), Jimm seems far and away the best choice.

My prefered lynches aren't happening, so I'll Vote: Jimmm. I feel scum is making me compromise though. :/

Italic part feels like a very scummy thing to say.  It makes me think Jimmm is town and Eevee is scum.
It sucks to be backed into a lynch you never believed in because none of the ones you do have enough support.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 15, 2014, 06:39:18 pm
Compromises near the deadline, that's how scum save their partners.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 15, 2014, 06:42:29 pm
I'm here.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 15, 2014, 06:43:01 pm
Joth, when you put it that way (and I feel the information you listed was accurate and fair), Jimm seems far and away the best choice.

My prefered lynches aren't happening, so I'll Vote: Jimmm. I feel scum is making me compromise though. :/

This was an unannounced L-1.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 15, 2014, 06:44:09 pm
That said, I'll hammer if needed before deadline.

We have some time for talking though.

Jimmmmm, are you around?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 07:08:47 pm
well, I got to go. But no way scum!Jimmmmm is actually just not around at deadline. I think Eevee and ash should switch to Hydrad.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 15, 2014, 07:09:48 pm
well, I got to go. But no way scum!Jimmmmm is actually just not around at deadline. I think Eevee and ash should switch to Hydrad.

I'm not on Jimmmmmm.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 15, 2014, 07:11:06 pm
vote: hydrad


Jimmmmm (4): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin, faust, Eevee
Hydrad (4): Witherweaver, jotheonah, silverspawn, ashersky
Ichimaru Gin (1): Jimmmmm




Hydrad also at L-1.  If Jimmmmm returns, I expect he'd hammer out of self-preservation...
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 15, 2014, 07:13:29 pm
One thing I will say is I think if people refuse to lynch Jimmm you should at least lynch me. I don't want us to have a no lynch today and then you just mislynch me tomorrow instead. I'd rather die today then have a no lynch happen.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 15, 2014, 07:15:19 pm
One thing I will say is I think if people refuse to lynch Jimmm you should at least lynch me. I don't want us to have a no lynch today and then you just mislynch me tomorrow instead. I'd rather die today then have a no lynch happen.

If I come back at 7:29 and we have no lynch, I'll hammer Jimmmmm to avoid it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 15, 2014, 07:17:45 pm
One thing I will say is I think if people refuse to lynch Jimmm you should at least lynch me. I don't want us to have a no lynch today and then you just mislynch me tomorrow instead. I'd rather die today then have a no lynch happen.

If I come back at 7:29 and we have no lynch, I'll hammer Jimmmmm to avoid it.

Ok that makes me feel better.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 15, 2014, 07:20:59 pm
Vote: Hydrad
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 15, 2014, 07:21:46 pm
:(
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 15, 2014, 07:22:23 pm
Are you scum?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 15, 2014, 07:24:03 pm
Are you scum?

I take it that was a self-preservation hammer?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 15, 2014, 07:24:26 pm
:(

Final reads if town?

Misdirection if scum?

Either way, give it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 15, 2014, 07:25:52 pm
Are you scum?

I take it that was a self-preservation hammer?

Yeah.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Hydrad on October 15, 2014, 07:26:19 pm
I still think Jimmm is scum.

Its dissapointing that about a 8 minute difference might cost us the game.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 15, 2014, 07:26:45 pm
I take it back. Jimmmm's definitely scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 15, 2014, 07:28:32 pm
I take it back. Jimmmm's definitely scum.

It was a pretty scummy hammer.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 15, 2014, 07:29:51 pm
I take it back. Jimmmm's definitely scum.

Who are my most likely partners?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 15, 2014, 07:34:30 pm
I still think Jimmm is scum.

Its dissapointing that about a 8 minute difference might cost us the game.

Why would this particular lynch cost us the game?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 15, 2014, 07:36:57 pm
Thread Locked!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 15, 2014, 07:52:23 pm
Final Vote Count

Jimmmmm (4): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin, faust, Eevee
Hydrad (5): Witherweaver, jotheonah, silverspawn, ashersky, Jimmmmm

Hydrad has been lynched! He was Bernard, a Mafia Goon

Everyone please check in tonight by sending me your original role PM from yuma as well as any night actions you may have to perform
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 15, 2014, 08:08:54 pm
Night will last up to 48 hours per the rules.  Please submit any night actions at least 6 hours before deadline so I have time to figure everything out.  I was just as surprised as everyone else that hydrad was scum!  :)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 17, 2014, 04:03:34 pm
Flavor?  I dont know anything about the flavor.  If people know stuff about the flavor and would like some, write some stuff up and PM me.  Write your death scene, someone else's death scene, your scum victory, your town victory, your personal diaries, whatever.  I may or may not include it in the flavor when that comes up.  This will have no impact on the game itself, I just thought players might enjoy writing their own flavor for the game.  I will use any flavor at my discretion and reserve the right to modify anything that you send me.

I might be busy later when the thread is supposed to open up, but we are all ready so I hope you don't mind that

Day 3 Starts Now

Thread Unlocked


Vote Count 3.0


Not Voting [8]: Eevee, Ichimaru, ashersky, faust, silverspawn, witherweaver, Jimmmmm, joth

With 8 alive it takes 6 to lynch.  The deadline for Day 3 will be Friday, October 27 at 5 pm forum time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 17, 2014, 04:10:04 pm
I propose a massclaim. Who's with me?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 17, 2014, 04:12:09 pm
Wait a minute. Nobody died last night? Also I'm not sure we should jump into a mass claim immediately, but I think it's very likely it'll make sense to do one before the end of the day.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 17, 2014, 04:19:19 pm
Explanations for no kill:

JK jailkept mafia
Mafia shot BP townie
Mafia shot commuter who was commuting
Mafia didn't shoot
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 17, 2014, 04:25:32 pm
I think this pretty much confirms no SK too, which is very good. Assuming IG's claim is true, that leaves us with these options:

Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

I support a massclaim.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 17, 2014, 04:38:35 pm
Explanations for no kill:

JK jailkept mafia
Mafia shot BP townie
Mafia shot commuter who was commuting
Mafia didn't shoot
Also.
Mafia shot traitor and recruited them.
traitor roleblocked Mafia by accident.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 17, 2014, 04:41:32 pm
I worry that there's no IC or obv!town to direct a massclaim in a productive way.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 17, 2014, 04:42:37 pm
I worry that there's no IC or obv!town to direct a massclaim in a productive way.
I agree. However, if I were to choose someone to direct it right now, I'd pick ash.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 17, 2014, 04:43:11 pm
I worry that there's no IC or obv!town to direct a massclaim in a productive way.
I agree. However, if I were to choose someone to direct it right now, I'd pick ash.
I wouldn't. Why ash?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 17, 2014, 04:43:55 pm
I worry that there's no IC or obv!town to direct a massclaim in a productive way.
I agree. However, if I were to choose someone to direct it right now, I'd pick ash.
I wouldn't. Why ash?
Because he's very good with setups and is more town to me than anyone else at this point.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 17, 2014, 04:45:08 pm
Also, how does everyone feel about me revealing who I diagnosed last night?
Should I wait, or claim it right away?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 17, 2014, 04:46:11 pm
I don't doubt ash's skills, but he could easily be scum.

I'd rather have WW do this, he was tunneling Hydrad. Or what about me? I could have easily put my vote on Jimmmm instead before going afk. Why do that as scum? just to do this argument?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 17, 2014, 04:47:08 pm
Explanations for no kill:

JK jailkept mafia
Mafia shot BP townie
Mafia shot commuter who was commuting
Mafia didn't shoot
Also.
Mafia shot traitor and recruited them.
traitor roleblocked Mafia by accident.

I think IG is right.  And it's very possible he was the one who was shot and recruited.

I think a claim that confirms his claim would be very helpful.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 17, 2014, 04:47:39 pm
Also, how does everyone feel about me revealing who I diagnosed last night?
Should I wait, or claim it right away?

you should just tell us. You're already outed.

I don't doubt ash's skills, but he could easily be scum.

I'd rather have WW do this, he was tunneling Hydrad. Or what about me? I could have easily put my vote on Jimmmm instead before going afk. Why do that as scum? just to do this argument?

Maybe Jimmmmm's also scum. And he quickhammered for town points and because he knew somebody was going down.

(I don't actually believe that, but it's possible)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 17, 2014, 04:48:11 pm
Explanations for no kill:

JK jailkept mafia
Mafia shot BP townie
Mafia shot commuter who was commuting
Mafia didn't shoot
Also.
Mafia shot traitor and recruited them.
traitor roleblocked Mafia by accident.

I think IG is right.  And it's very possible he was the one who was shot and recruited.

I think a claim that confirms his claim would be very helpful.

Oh suddenly you like my theory!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 17, 2014, 04:48:49 pm
Maybe Jimmmmm's also scum. And he quickhammered for town points and because he knew somebody was going down.

(I don't actually believe that, but it's possible)

Maybe I'm the Traitor and hammered because I thought Hydrad was Town.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 17, 2014, 04:49:03 pm
I think this pretty much confirms no SK too, which is very good. Assuming IG's claim is true, that leaves us with these options:

Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

I support a massclaim.

I say limited claim for now.

Anyone with a role not on this list could claim and catch Ichi.

Anyone on this list could help confirm Ichi.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 17, 2014, 04:49:23 pm
Also, how does everyone feel about me revealing who I diagnosed last night?
Should I wait, or claim it right away?
I don't think you should claim right away.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 17, 2014, 04:50:33 pm
Quote
Anyone with a role not on this list could claim and catch Ichi.

Anyone on this list could help confirm Ichi.

so, everyone claims?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 17, 2014, 04:51:05 pm
I think this pretty much confirms no SK too, which is very good. Assuming IG's claim is true, that leaves us with these options:

Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

I support a massclaim.

I say limited claim for now.

Anyone with a role not on this list could claim and catch Ichi.

Anyone on this list could help confirm Ichi.

I like the first part, but not the second part.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 17, 2014, 04:51:12 pm
I think this pretty much confirms no SK too, which is very good. Assuming IG's claim is true, that leaves us with these options:

Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

I support a massclaim.

I say limited claim for now.

Anyone with a role not on this list could claim and catch Ichi.

Anyone on this list could help confirm Ichi.

So you're saying anyone with a role should claim. Which is a massclaim.

PPE ninja'd
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 17, 2014, 04:51:40 pm
So now you guys think I'm scummy just because I read the setup?
I thought it was (and is) important to know all the possibilities of why there was no NK last night--and obviously joth agreed.
Why would I provide that information if it was true and I had been recruited?
Whatever, if we're going to massclaim today, I'm not claiming my target right away--so I agree with silver there.

PPE: like 5
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 17, 2014, 04:53:18 pm
for what it's worth, I don't think you're scummy anymore.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 17, 2014, 04:53:47 pm
I'm going to go ahead and claim IC status!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 17, 2014, 04:55:21 pm
I think this pretty much confirms no SK too, which is very good. Assuming IG's claim is true, that leaves us with these options:

Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

I support a massclaim.

SK has the option to use abilities instead of shoot, if he wanted to.  Not sure if it would be a good idea or not.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 17, 2014, 04:56:24 pm
I think if anyone has a role not on that list (i.e. a role that would out Ichi as a liar) they should claim.

If you are either a VT or a role in one of those three, you should post and say "no claim"

Once everyone's responded to that, we can consider having other PRs claim.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 17, 2014, 04:56:56 pm
Explanations for no kill:

JK jailkept mafia
Mafia shot BP townie
Mafia shot commuter who was commuting
Mafia didn't shoot
Also.
Mafia shot traitor and recruited them.
traitor roleblocked Mafia by accident.

I think IG is right.  And it's very possible he was the one who was shot and recruited.

I think a claim that confirms his claim would be very helpful.

I agree.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 17, 2014, 04:57:21 pm
I think if anyone has a role not on that list (i.e. a role that would out Ichi as a liar) they should claim.

If you are either a VT or a role in one of those three, you should post and say "no claim"

Once everyone's responded to that, we can consider having other PRs claim.

This sounds reasonable.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 17, 2014, 04:57:28 pm
Given that we know there are exactly 3 Town non-VTs, would it make sense to claim VT/non-VT? Maybe there's not much point given we already have one claim, but assuming no fakeclaims it does the job of creating ICs, and if we do get fakeclaims we can go from there.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 17, 2014, 05:03:24 pm
I like Jimmmmm's idea.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 17, 2014, 05:08:29 pm
I think if anyone has a role not on that list (i.e. a role that would out Ichi as a liar) they should claim.

If you are either a VT or a role in one of those three, you should post and say "no claim"

Once everyone's responded to that, we can consider having other PRs claim.

why don't we just massclaim?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 17, 2014, 05:10:08 pm
I think if anyone has a role not on that list (i.e. a role that would out Ichi as a liar) they should claim.

If you are either a VT or a role in one of those three, you should post and say "no claim"

Once everyone's responded to that, we can consider having other PRs claim.

why don't we just massclaim?

Most of the powerful town roles are investigative in nature. If we can catch a scum while still allowing our Goon Cop or detective one more night to use their power, that seems better than the alternative.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 17, 2014, 05:12:44 pm
Ichi should probably give his result after the claim, right?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 17, 2014, 05:18:21 pm
I think if anyone has a role not on that list (i.e. a role that would out Ichi as a liar) they should claim.

If you are either a VT or a role in one of those three, you should post and say "no claim"

Once everyone's responded to that, we can consider having other PRs claim.

why don't we just massclaim?

Most of the powerful town roles are investigative in nature. If we can catch a scum while still allowing our Goon Cop or detective one more night to use their power, that seems better than the alternative.

or we catch them through the masslcaim

what happens when goon cop targets the traitor?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 17, 2014, 05:23:08 pm
Traitor is not a Goon.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 17, 2014, 05:30:19 pm
Guys I have to go. Date with the ladyfriend tonight and she's not the biggest fan of me constantly checking in on my mafia games. Don't expect I'll be around to participate in claiming until at least tomorrow morning, so I'm going to go ahead and claim Not VT and On the Ichi list. (meaning my role does NOT contradict Ichi's claim)

So now I'm all set if you all go with my plan or Jimmmmm's plan. Bye!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 17, 2014, 05:33:54 pm
Wait a second.. don't all the options have the same amount of PRs?  So if

...

okay that's exactly what Jimmm said. 

Given that we know there are exactly 3 Town non-VTs, would it make sense to claim VT/non-VT? Maybe there's not much point given we already have one claim, but assuming no fakeclaims it does the job of creating ICs, and if we do get fakeclaims we can go from there.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 17, 2014, 05:36:59 pm
Yeah so VT/not VT makes sense.  If you have a PR that contradicts Ichi's claim, then you obviously know Ichi is scum and should probably say something.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 17, 2014, 05:37:04 pm
I worry that there's no IC or obv!town to direct a massclaim in a productive way.
I agree. However, if I were to choose someone to direct it right now, I'd pick ash.
I'd pick silverspawn.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 17, 2014, 05:37:43 pm
I think there's a mistake in the OP. Judging by the table, there's no such thing as a 1-shot BP Commuter.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 17, 2014, 05:39:49 pm
I think there's a mistake in the OP. Judging by the table, there's no such thing as a 1-shot BP Commuter.

That's just one-shot commuter.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 17, 2014, 05:41:42 pm
I worry that there's no IC or obv!town to direct a massclaim in a productive way.
I agree. However, if I were to choose someone to direct it right now, I'd pick ash.
I'd pick silverspawn.

Man, lynching scum just doesn't give you the town cred it used to.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 17, 2014, 05:43:03 pm
Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

Also, the only Town role not mentioned here is 1-shot Bulletproof Townie.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 17, 2014, 06:04:35 pm
Wait a second.. don't all the options have the same amount of PRs?  So if

...

okay that's exactly what Jimmm said. 

Given that we know there are exactly 3 Town non-VTs, would it make sense to claim VT/non-VT? Maybe there's not much point given we already have one claim, but assuming no fakeclaims it does the job of creating ICs, and if we do get fakeclaims we can go from there.

It outs the PRs but not exact roles.

Is that what we want?

Joth has claimed PR.  Ichi yesterday.  There's one more if no one lied.  You get two or more subsequent PR claims and we have to decide which one to lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 17, 2014, 06:07:29 pm
I think that's okay.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 17, 2014, 06:21:07 pm
I am non-VT and non-BP.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 17, 2014, 07:03:58 pm
I need to do more thinking tomorrow. For now, I am a VT.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 17, 2014, 09:26:57 pm
Well, with three PR claims, all that matters is further PR claims.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 06:43:58 am
Other than all the claiming stuff, I used the night to reread Hydrad. These are my notes:

#103 he defends SS
#185 thinks Ichi is town
#188 WW says Hydrad's defense of Ichi "feels constructed"
#290 votes joth because of his Ichi vote
#413 says he cannot read Xerxes
#475 sheeps my case on WW
WW and Hydrad argue about Ichi
#536 WW says Hydrad is white knighting Ichi
#581 votes Xerxes without much of a reason
#686 WW votes Hydrad because he "keeps forgetting he's in this game" - not partner?
#688 votes me because he doesn't know what my reads are
#690 joth is null on Hydrad
#694 silver votes Hydrad
#806 Eevee defends Hydrad
#809 Hydrad votes Jimmmmmm
#810 WW votes Hydrad
#840 Ichi votes Jimmmmmm, calls the accusations against Hydrad "baseless"
#899 says ashersky feels weird, but is null on him
#950 defends silverspawn
#960 joth prefers Hydrad over Jimmmmmm
#1018 Jimmmmmm prefers Ichi to Hydrad
#1019 silver swaps his vote to Ichi after that
#1031 joth makes an argument for Hydrad being town
#1046 silver says Ichi's claim makes him feel worse about a Hydrad lynch
#1051 silver votes Hydrad (scummy?)
#1052 joth votes Hydrad (scummy?)
#1068 silver urges Hydrad to claim
#1129 ashersky puts Hydrad to L-1

I thought that WW is unlikely to be Hydrad's partner. ashersky also seems to not be his partner, considering how he basically decided Hydrad's fate.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 06:46:06 am
So claims:

Ichi - Psychologist
joth - PR
Jimmmmmm - PR (not BP)
faust - VT
ashersky - VT (well, or I think if he wasn't, he would have claimed by now)
silver - VT
Eevee - ?
WW - ?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 07:12:31 am
so, if Eevee and WW claim VT, all PR claims are cleared, because then we have the right number of PR's - right?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 07:18:31 am
so, if Eevee and WW claim VT, all PR claims are cleared, because then we have the right number of PR's - right?

Yes.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 18, 2014, 07:31:35 am
I am a Vanilla Townie
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 18, 2014, 08:38:59 am
I'm VT. I'm sorry I didn't claim yesterday, I was out in a party and didn't want to make a mistake.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 08:44:09 am
So three ICs, yes? That means we look for scum among me/ash/silver/Eevee/WW. Of those, I find silver and Eevee to be the scummiest. Not sure which one I prefer. I had a town read on Eevee earlier, but the way he defended Hydrad was odd. Still, silver was scummy before, behaved scummy towards the deadline, and is still scummy now.

Vote: silverspawn
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 08:48:05 am
It is notable that Psychologist in the game means that the option "Traitor knows mafia" is erased. So it will be harder to detect the Traitor, I guess. Wagon analysis is not as useful here.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 08:50:05 am
I guess we ultimately want to know which bonus scum got, so we should probably mass claim tomorrow?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 18, 2014, 08:59:16 am
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

Here are the possible setups.

Lack of kills overall point toward no SK.  If a JK exists, knowing who's been jailed would be huge, given lack of kill.  But so does commuter...  Goon Cop can quasi clear folks, as can the Detective.

I assume no positive results for anyone or we'd have heard by now.

I agree with Faust on reads, eevee/silver seem most likely.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 18, 2014, 09:00:20 am
Vote: Eevee based on wagons/end of day 2.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 18, 2014, 09:07:42 am
I won't have time to defend myself until tomorrow. Hydrad flipping scum was a positive surprise, but I understand it looks bad for me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 18, 2014, 09:12:29 am
From memory, Eevee and Faust looked bad.  Ash was looking bad, but I guess he did decide between Hydrad and Jimmmmm?

Not sure about Silver.

This is based on how I remember them talking of Hydrad.  I could be misremembering.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 09:41:25 am
Okay, looks like I have to come clean.

My first post in this game was a lie. I'm a PR. Which means, there is scum among the claimed PR's in this game. I don't know why scum claimed PR here, but there's no doubt that they did.

This all would have been so much easier if we just did a massclaim. After everyone claimed his role, I could have known for sure who was lying. I would have full claimed, and we catch scum. But no, ash just had to suggest this half-claim plan.

It doesn't matter though. We need to claim now. Everyone with a PR needs to state his role. And I will full-claim last.

If you think I am lying, think about this. I have zero motivation to do this as town. I'm not actually in trouble. There is no way I do this as town. But if that's not enough, then at least follow me for today, and if we lose even one town, you can lynch me tomorrow. We won't though. Just do what I say here, and we win.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 09:41:59 am
Also, Jimmmm needs to claim first, then Joth.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 09:46:39 am
If you think I am lying, think about this. I have zero motivation to do this as town. I'm not actually in trouble. There is no way I do this as town.

Well thanks, this makes things very easy.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 09:47:14 am
If you think I am lying, think about this. I have zero motivation to do this as town. I'm not actually in trouble. There is no way I do this as town.

Well thanks, this makes things very easy.
*scum
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 09:48:11 am
I mean, it's not even a mistyping... the quoted sentence makes sense as is and wouldn't make sense if you replace town by scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 09:49:48 am
I mean, it's not even a mistyping... the quoted sentence makes sense as is and wouldn't make sense if you replace town by scum.
are we really talking about this?

Quote
I have zero motivation to do this as scum. I'm not actually in trouble. There is no way I do this as scum
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 09:53:51 am
I mean, it's not even a mistyping... the quoted sentence makes sense as is and wouldn't make sense if you replace town by scum.
are we really talking about this?

Quote
I have zero motivation to do this as scum. I'm not actually in trouble. There is no way I do this as scum

The obvious motivation is: You want to prevent three town PRs from becoming ICs. Well, that's a pretty good motivation.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 09:56:43 am
On the other hand, town lying is almost always bad (there are, as always on f.ds, edge cases - this is not one of them). You have zero motivation to lie as town.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 09:57:20 am
Quote
The obvious motivation is: You want to prevent three town PRs from becoming ICs. Well, that's a pretty good motivation.
it's not. there are two ways this can go

one: two PR claim roles that can't be in the same setup. if that's the case, you have proof right there that one is lying
two: one PR claims my role. If that's the case, you know 100% that either he is scum, or I am. That makes the other two players 100% IC, and you have a field of 2 players with 1 scum in them.

either case is good for town.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 09:59:27 am
Quote
The obvious motivation is: You want to prevent three town PRs from becoming ICs. Well, that's a pretty good motivation.
it's not. there are two ways this can go

one: two PR claim roles that can't be in the same setup. if that's the case, you have proof right there that one is lying
two: one PR claims my role. If that's the case, you know 100% that either he is scum, or I am. That makes the other two players 100% IC, and you have a field of 2 players with 1 scum in them.

either case is good for town.

There are cases where you can have three claims which can't all be true, but each two can be in the same setup, I think... let me check.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 10:00:02 am
oh I guess and

three: 2 of the 3 other PR's claim the same role. That case is like two, only you know scum is one of these two. that's just as good as two.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 10:04:12 am
Quote
The obvious motivation is: You want to prevent three town PRs from becoming ICs. Well, that's a pretty good motivation.
it's not. there are two ways this can go

one: two PR claim roles that can't be in the same setup. if that's the case, you have proof right there that one is lying
two: one PR claims my role. If that's the case, you know 100% that either he is scum, or I am. That makes the other two players 100% IC, and you have a field of 2 players with 1 scum in them.

either case is good for town.

There are cases where you can have three claims which can't all be true, but each two can be in the same setup, I think... let me check.

Okay, I was not accounting for that possibility. But it looks like that's not possible

2. Watcher, Jailkeeper
4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Detective
8. Goon Cop, Bodyguard

and Psychologist in all of them.

these are 6 different roles
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 10:06:36 am
Okay, some setup analysis.

Look at the 3 roles Psychologist/JK/1-shot Commuter.

Each 2 of them can be in the same setup:

Col2: Det/JK/Psy
Col3: Com/JK/Det
Row4: Com/Psy/Det

So if we have these 3 roles claimed, finding out who is lying might take up to 2 mislynches. Guess what? Two mislynches is all scum needs in order to win.

PPE: I think you left one out.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 10:07:19 am
I think that's the only pairing though.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 18, 2014, 10:08:02 am
Yeah the guy who lied as town in his very first post of the game is definitely the one coming off squeaky clean here.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 10:08:28 am
this pairing?

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

that's not possible, because it has a SK. unless you are telling me that we have 1-kill and 0-kill with a SK in the setup
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 10:12:07 am
Okay, let me think. THINK...

I believe if anyone has one of the roles listed below, they should claim immediately.

Watcher, 1-shot BP, Goon Cop, Bodyguard.

Reason: Each of these appears only once in the scheme. Thus, any other PR in the setup is able to confirm or counterclaim such a claim.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 10:12:52 am
this pairing?

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

that's not possible, because it has a SK. unless you are telling me that we have 1-kill and 0-kill with a SK in the setup

Well, unlikely, I guess, but with JK, Roleblocker, 1-shot BP Serial Killer in the setup, it's not out of the question.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 10:14:52 am
this pairing?

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

that's not possible, because it has a SK. unless you are telling me that we have 1-kill and 0-kill with a SK in the setup

Well, unlikely, I guess, but with JK, Roleblocker, 1-shot BP Serial Killer in the setup, it's not out of the question.

It doesn't matter. Do what I say, if one town dies, lynch me. That was, 2 mislynches are impossible.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 10:15:10 am
*that way
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 10:18:22 am
this pairing?

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

that's not possible, because it has a SK. unless you are telling me that we have 1-kill and 0-kill with a SK in the setup

Well, unlikely, I guess, but with JK, Roleblocker, 1-shot BP Serial Killer in the setup, it's not out of the question.

It doesn't matter. Do what I say, if one town dies, lynch me. That was, 2 mislynches are impossible.

But of course you know we still have to lynch your partner. I would much rather lynch scum immediately. Plus, if you really were town, you would never agree to this plan, because it's how town loses.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 10:24:42 am
Let me remind you that Eevee is buddying me pretty hard. ash is suspecting Eevee. Noone has suspected me day3 really, only based on the fact that you thought scum was among the VT's. I made a case against hydrad as early as day 1, who flipped scum. I was on the Hydrad wagon.

Even as scum, this plan is pro town. You get rid of me tomorrow, and you make 2 IC's in the process.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 10:26:56 am
Quote
Plus, if you really were town, you would never agree to this plan, because it's how town loses.
I'm not agreeing to this plan, I am proposing it. This plan is how we will win the game.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 10:27:21 am
Okay, with some consideration, here is the ultimate claiming plan. This depends on whether we even want to claim - there are reasonable arguments to be made against claiming, I think - but if we claim, this is how we should do it:

1. Everyone with a role out of {Watcher, 1-shot BP, Goon Cop, Bodyguard} claims. If contradictions arise form this, we stop. If someone claimed, go to 2, if not, go to 3.

2. Anyone who can contradict the claimant claims. If noone does, massclaim, and we'll get two contradicting claims. We lynch one of them. Stop here.

3. The Detective claims. Why is that? Because at this point, we know that if Ichi tels the truth, there must be a Detective in the setup. If someone claims (and noone counterclaims), he's IC (either Ichi tells the truth, then there must be a Detective, there is only one; or Ichi lies, well then Ichi lies, and everyone else tells the truth). If noone claims, we lynch Ichi.

4. If this all didn't lead to anything, the rest does not need to claim, because it won't give us much further information. We lynch among Ichi and whoever didn't claim Detective.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 10:29:14 am
Quote
Plus, if you really were town, you would never agree to this plan, because it's how town loses.
I'm not agreeing to this plan, I am proposing it. This plan is how we will win the game.

If we mislynch today, and lynch you tomorrow (assuming you are town), do you agree that scum will have won after you are lynched? (Barring JK and other stuff)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 10:33:49 am

yea that's not happpening. this is how we do it:

1. Jimmmm claims. If he claims my role, we lynch him. If he claims Ichi's role, we lynch him. If he claims Joth's role, we lynch one of them. If none of that happens, we continue

2. joth claims.

3. I claim.

4. We now have 2 contradicting claims. We lynch one of them (not me). Every other PR is now an IC
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 10:34:53 am
Quote
If we mislynch today, and lynch you tomorrow (assuming you are town), do you agree that scum will have won after you are lynched? (Barring JK and other stuff)

that won't happen
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 18, 2014, 10:36:30 am
I like faust's plan. I think silverspawn sacrificed his right to call the shots when he lied day 1.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 10:36:50 am
If we follow my plan, there is only one way that we can mislynch, which is if 2 other players claim contradicting roles, and in that case, I am an IC, and you can't lynch me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 10:37:40 am

yea that's not happpening. this is how we do it:

1. Jimmmm claims. If he claims my role, we lynch him. If he claims Ichi's role, we lynch him. If he claims Joth's role, we lynch one of them. If none of that happens, we continue

2. joth claims.

3. I claim.

4. We now have 2 contradicting claims. We lynch one of them (not me). Every other PR is now an IC

You cannot guarantee that we will get two contradicting claim through that process.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 18, 2014, 10:38:18 am
Because, see, now he's not trustworthy.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 10:38:39 am
I like faust's plan. I think silverspawn sacrificed his right to call the shots when he lied day 1.

look, it doesn't matter if you think I'm full of crap. My plan is good for town, regardless of my alignment.

plus, I am a PR, I am alive day3, where's the problem with my claim.


Quote
You cannot guarantee that we will get two contradicting claim through that process.

There is no SK.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 10:39:46 am
but FINE, let me study faust's plan. I see if there is any way it backfires. If not, we can do that too, even though it's really just complicating things.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 18, 2014, 10:40:56 am
where's the problem with my claim.

The problem is that you have now admitted to lying and I have no reason to trust you.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 10:46:56 am
but FINE, let me study faust's plan. I see if there is any way it backfires. If not, we can do that too, even though it's really just complicating things.

I'm about 95% sure that it can't backfire. so - alright. we can do that.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 10:48:35 am
where's the problem with my claim.

The problem is that you have now admitted to lying and I have no reason to trust you.

you can thank me for winning after the game
Title: Re: Mafia ?? : Silo Mafia - Signups Open - Setup Coming Soon
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 11:00:13 am
I forgot about this, again:

- The SK may choose to give up NK and instead perform any one of the 8 town roles listed above during the night. Each role may only be used once by the Sk during the game.

Makes it more likely that we have a SK who for some reason decided against killing.
Title: Re: Mafia ?? : Silo Mafia - Signups Open - Setup Coming Soon
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 11:15:30 am
I forgot about this, again:

- The SK may choose to give up NK and instead perform any one of the 8 town roles listed above during the night. Each role may only be used once by the Sk during the game.

Makes it more likely that we have a SK who for some reason decided against killing.

your plan accounts for that, so it doesn't matter.

okay

Does anyone not want to follow faust's plan? If so, he should say it and explain why.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 18, 2014, 12:24:25 pm
Boy did I so see this coming.

What was your reason for claiming VT?

I don't think I want to answer that.
Why not? This seems an incredibly odd response if you're really a VT.
It sounds much more like you're lying (as town or scum).
And people thought that post of mine was scummy. That's kind of annoying.

I'm fine with following faust's plan. I've already claimed, and whoever else claiming is just going to confirm me or out scum (though they may have already been outed).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 12:26:11 pm
Boy did I so see this coming.

What was your reason for claiming VT?

I don't think I want to answer that.
Why not? This seems an incredibly odd response if you're really a VT.
It sounds much more like you're lying (as town or scum).
And people thought that post of mine was scummy. That's kind of annoying.

I'm fine with following faust's plan. I've already claimed, and whoever else claiming is just going to confirm me or out scum (though they may have already been outed).

Well, to be fair, that post is still scummy even though you were right.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 18, 2014, 03:50:56 pm
I actually kind of doubt Silver is lying.  But, I agree that he forfeited his right to direct things when he lied.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 18, 2014, 04:00:09 pm
I actually kind of doubt Silver is lying.  But, I agree that he forfeited his right to direct things when he lied.

You mean you think silver is town? Yeah... his reaction to the pressure does not look particularly scummy.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 04:09:45 pm
I actually kind of doubt Silver is lying.  But, I agree that he forfeited his right to direct things when he lied.

is that a policy argument?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 18, 2014, 04:16:29 pm
I think maybe Silver is lying. To prevent a triple IC scenario and out all our power roles.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 04:46:04 pm
I think maybe silver is lying. To prevent a triple IC scenario and out all our power roles.
come on. We still have IC's, I thought I explained that. And the usage of outing Power roles isn't very big, since we know who has PR's anyway, just not who has which. plus, even if I am lying, faust's plan will turn out well for us.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 18, 2014, 04:47:04 pm
you can really think what you want, as long as you're not planing to sabotage the plan.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 18, 2014, 05:36:27 pm
Unvote

Faust's plan looks solid.  I can look more closely tomorrow, though.

We have our lynch pool, at least.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 19, 2014, 08:32:23 am

1. Everyone with a role out of {Watcher, 1-shot BP, Goon Cop, Bodyguard} claims. If contradictions arise form this, we stop. If someone claimed, go to 2, if not, go to 3.

2. Anyone who can contradict the claimant claims. If noone does, massclaim, and we'll get two contradicting claims. We lynch one of them. Stop here.

3. The Detective claims. Why is that? Because at this point, we know that if Ichi tels the truth, there must be a Detective in the setup. If someone claims (and noone counterclaims), he's IC (either Ichi tells the truth, then there must be a Detective, there is only one; or Ichi lies, well then Ichi lies, and everyone else tells the truth). If noone claims, we lynch Ichi.

4. If this all didn't lead to anything, the rest does not need to claim, because it won't give us much further information. We lynch among Ichi and whoever didn't claim Detective.


Ok all, we're on step 1. I am currently not coming forward. Need to hear from Jimmmm and silver.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 19, 2014, 08:37:51 am
I'm not one of those roles.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 19, 2014, 08:52:55 am
Well, I guess one disadvantage of my plan is that we have to wait for Jimmmmm in every step.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 19, 2014, 09:41:10 am
I actually kind of doubt Silver is lying.  But, I agree that he forfeited his right to direct things when he lied.

is that a policy argument?

I suppose it is.  I still feel burned by Shrayeye.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 19, 2014, 09:46:17 am
I actually kind of doubt Silver is lying.  But, I agree that he forfeited his right to direct things when he lied.

You mean you think silver is town? Yeah... his reaction to the pressure does not look particularly scummy.

Well yes. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 19, 2014, 10:06:38 am
I actually kind of doubt Silver is lying.  But, I agree that he forfeited his right to direct things when he lied.

is that a policy argument?

I suppose it is.  I still feel burned by Shrayeye.
what? is that an insider?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 19, 2014, 02:01:40 pm
Vote Count 3.1

silverspawn (1): faust

Not Voting (7): Eevee, Ichimaru, ashersky, silverspawn, witherweaver, Jimmmmm, joth

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.  The deadline for Day 3 will be Friday, October 27 at 5 pm forum time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 19, 2014, 02:59:08 pm
I'll claim after silverspawn does.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 19, 2014, 03:01:34 pm
I'll claim after silverspawn does.
that's not faust's plan.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 19, 2014, 03:27:31 pm
I'll claim after silverspawn does.
that's not faust's plan.

Well if you're a PR you have to say you have nothing for (1).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 19, 2014, 04:23:18 pm
I think silver realised how bad 3 ICs is for scum and so fakeclaimed in a panic. I won't be directed by him and will claim to the extent that he does, after he does. That said:

I'm not one of those roles.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 19, 2014, 04:28:08 pm
I think silver realised how bad 3 ICs is for scum and so fakeclaimed in a panic. I won't be directed by him and will claim to the extent that he does, after he does. That said:

I'm not one of those roles.

Ah, okay.  But this is Faust's plan, not Silver's.  Do you think Faust's plan won't help catch Silver if he's lying?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 19, 2014, 04:32:43 pm
I think silver realised how bad 3 ICs is for scum and so fakeclaimed in a panic. I won't be directed by him and will claim to the extent that he does, after he does. That said:

I'm not one of those roles.

Ah, okay.  But this is Faust's plan, not Silver's.  Do you think Faust's plan won't help catch Silver if he's lying?

I think silver claiming first will help catch him if he's lying.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 19, 2014, 04:39:00 pm
Okay.  Wake me up when the claiming arguments are over.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 19, 2014, 04:49:08 pm
Okay.  Wake me up when the claiming arguments are over.

Sure thing.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 19, 2014, 04:52:54 pm
Vote: Jimmmmm
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 19, 2014, 04:53:55 pm
Vote: Jimmmmm

Any kind of explanation?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 19, 2014, 04:56:10 pm
Vote: Jimmmmm

Any kind of explanation?

Just follow my plan already. Stretching the day out is scummy stuff.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 19, 2014, 05:09:15 pm
How am I not following your plan?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 19, 2014, 05:44:10 pm
Ok. Checking in. I have a number of new classes starting as the 2nd half of the semester is this monday. So I'll have somewhat less time.
I do not want to claim my result until this other claiming has been sorted out. I'll be around though.
Like WW, I don't have much to say about claiming stuff. It's up to those people to comply with faust's plan or not.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 05:52:29 pm
Okay, I have some time for plan thinking.

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

Here's the total setups list again.  Let's first do what Faust thinks will clear/catch Ichi.

Here's the list of PRs:

Detective
1-Shot Commuter
Goon Cop
Watcher
Jailkeeper
Psychologist
1-Shot BP Townie
Bodyguard

1.  Someone could claim {Watcher, Jailkeeper, 1-Shot Commuter, Detective, Goon Cop, Bodyguard} and somewhat substantiate Ichi's claim.
2.  Someone could claim {1-Shot BP Townie} and confirm Ichi lied.

That's not the greatest thing ever, but, well, I think that's a start.

So I think Step #1 should be the three PR claimants that are NOT Ichi should claim 1-Shot BP/Not 1-Shot BP.  This is not the same as what he proposed, and I'm not sure why.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 05:55:44 pm
Well, maybe the odd massclaiming thing included the 1-Shot BP thing?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 05:57:36 pm
Guys I have to go. Date with the ladyfriend tonight and she's not the biggest fan of me constantly checking in on my mafia games. Don't expect I'll be around to participate in claiming until at least tomorrow morning, so I'm going to go ahead and claim Not VT and On the Ichi list. (meaning my role does NOT contradict Ichi's claim)

So now I'm all set if you all go with my plan or Jimmmmm's plan. Bye!

I am non-VT and non-BP.

Okay, looks like I have to come clean.

My first post in this game was a lie. I'm a PR. Which means, there is scum among the claimed PR's in this game. I don't know why scum claimed PR here, but there's no doubt that they did.

This all would have been so much easier if we just did a massclaim. After everyone claimed his role, I could have known for sure who was lying. I would have full claimed, and we catch scum. But no, ash just had to suggest this half-claim plan.

It doesn't matter though. We need to claim now. Everyone with a PR needs to state his role. And I will full-claim last.

If you think I am lying, think about this. I have zero motivation to do this as town. I'm not actually in trouble. There is no way I do this as town. But if that's not enough, then at least follow me for today, and if we lose even one town, you can lynch me tomorrow. We won't though. Just do what I say here, and we win.



The three new claims collected.

Only silverspawn did not answer the BP question.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 05:58:56 pm
Assuming the three new claimants are NOT Psychologists, since they would have counterclaimed by now.  Assuming that the three new claimants are NOT 1-SHOT BP, since they should have claimed that by now.

silverspawn, claim BP or not BP in your next post.  Not doing so is grounds for lynching, in my estimation.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 19, 2014, 06:01:38 pm
I'm not BP
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 19, 2014, 06:06:25 pm
Quote
Well, maybe the odd massclaiming thing included the 1-Shot BP thing?
yea, it was one of the roles faust listed. so I really answered that already.

can we go ahead with faust's plan now? Or does Jimmm want to sabotage it more?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 06:06:50 pm
Final Vote Count

Jimmmmm (4): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin, faust, Eevee
Hydrad (5): Witherweaver, jotheonah, silverspawn, ashersky, Jimmmmm

IG is the only claimant off-wagon.

Jimmmmm can't get town points for the hammer because he was the other wagon.  silverspawn is in the scummy wagon position.  joth is in a better spot.

Man, IG makes the most sense, as he's the only one off-wagon, his claim came under pressure and very early, etc.

BUT!  We have other claimants now, and we should be able to figure this out.

As opposed to faust's method, I think the only thing that will really help us is to get all the claims out and sort out the impossible combos.  Except, that wouldn't work perfectly, as if you change one, it affects everything, so I think we'd have to focus on where TWO claims together can't work.  Man, this is hard.

I'd actually propose we get the claims sorted and then lynch based on scumhunting.'

I've yet to figure out how to solve for a liar, and here's why.

Assume the three non Ichi claimants say detective, 1-Shot commuter, Goon Cop.  So those three work together!  Ichi is lying!  Except...what if the Goon Cop is lying?  So we mislynch, then lynch correct the next day.  Not horrendous, but not perfect.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 06:09:58 pm
Okay, with some consideration, here is the ultimate claiming plan. This depends on whether we even want to claim - there are reasonable arguments to be made against claiming, I think - but if we claim, this is how we should do it:

1. Everyone with a role out of {Watcher, 1-shot BP, Goon Cop, Bodyguard} claims. If contradictions arise form this, we stop. If someone claimed, go to 2, if not, go to 3.

2. Anyone who can contradict the claimant claims. If noone does, massclaim, and we'll get two contradicting claims. We lynch one of them. Stop here.

3. The Detective claims. Why is that? Because at this point, we know that if Ichi tels the truth, there must be a Detective in the setup. If someone claims (and noone counterclaims), he's IC (either Ichi tells the truth, then there must be a Detective, there is only one; or Ichi lies, well then Ichi lies, and everyone else tells the truth). If noone claims, we lynch Ichi.

4. If this all didn't lead to anything, the rest does not need to claim, because it won't give us much further information. We lynch among Ichi and whoever didn't claim Detective.

There's 1 setup possible where a Detective exists and a Psychologist doesn't.  So there's a possible problem there with Step 3.  I've seen the arguments against the SK, and they make sense, but we can't rule it out.

Since no one claimed the other roles, a lack of a Detective does catch Ichi out.  So there's that.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 19, 2014, 06:20:48 pm
guys. ash. let us just do faust's plan. it will all work out. we have needlessly complicated this enough already.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 06:23:14 pm
guys. ash. let us just do faust's plan. it will all work out. we have needlessly complicated this enough already.

Guys.  silver.  What if faust is your partner?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 06:25:03 pm
I'm actually leaning toward no claiming, and lynching based on actions.

Scummiest, based on play:

IG > silverspawn > Jimmmmm > jotheonah

IG: off-wagon, early pressure claim
SS: LIED
Jimmmmm: lurking, could be intentionally obscuring his play
joth: towny, destroyed Hydrad

Now, any of these could be a Traitor who doesn't know his partners, but that's just a risk.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 06:25:40 pm
No claim makes scum guess at which PR to kill, too.  That's a good thing.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 19, 2014, 06:30:24 pm
I'm actually leaning toward no claiming, and lynching based on actions.

Scummiest, based on play:

IG > silverspawn > Jimmmmm > jotheonah

IG: off-wagon, early pressure claim
SS: LIED
Jimmmmm: lurking, could be intentionally obscuring his play
joth: towny, destroyed Hydrad

Now, any of these could be a Traitor who doesn't know his partners, but that's just a risk.

This is by far the most anti town post I've ever seen you make

I don't think faust's pan can even backfire.

It doesn't matter. we have to claim. we got this game in the back, if we just go ahead and DO it. you already prevented the original massclaim. don't do it again.

After faust proposed his plan, I asked who has a problem with it. You didn't say anything. I think you lost your right co sabotage it there.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 19, 2014, 06:32:51 pm
...
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 06:37:00 pm
I'm actually leaning toward no claiming, and lynching based on actions.

Scummiest, based on play:

IG > silverspawn > Jimmmmm > jotheonah

IG: off-wagon, early pressure claim
SS: LIED
Jimmmmm: lurking, could be intentionally obscuring his play
joth: towny, destroyed Hydrad

Now, any of these could be a Traitor who doesn't know his partners, but that's just a risk.

This is by far the most anti town post I've ever seen you make

I don't think faust's pan can even backfire.

It doesn't matter. we have to claim. we got this game in the back, if we just go ahead and DO it. you already prevented the original massclaim. don't do it again.

After faust proposed his plan, I asked who has a problem with it. You didn't say anything. I think you lost your right co sabotage it there.

Why are you faust's spokesperson?  Why are so greatly aligned with someone who is unconfirmed as town?  He's a VT claimer, just like everyone else.

If you go look at my posts, I actually said I would have more time to look at the plan today, and here I am, doing it.

I can't sabotage a plan I'm not a part of.  I can only make comments pointing out possible flaws.  All of this setup/plan talk is taking away from very importan things, like FINDING SCUM.

You are a liar.  That's not an insult, it's a statement of fact, based on your own admission.  You lied.  You make a conscious decision to be deceitful.  You understand what that means, right?  It means that no one should trust you, ever.  It means that you made a horrible mistake.  It means that nothing you say means anything but possibly evil and treacherous things (in the context of the game).

So you, aligning yourself with someone who is trying to help figure things out (faust) looks to me like a giant attempt to get some towncred for yourself.  You pushing and focusing on the plan and trying to force claims out as quickly as possible looks to me like you are trying to ensure no one focuses on your lying in this game and to get all the information scum wants out in the open before the door shuts.

No one should claim anything because YOU want them to.  All we know is there is at least 1 scum out of 4 players.  There is zero possibility of 100% catching a liar today by claiming, as we've already confirmed that the ONLY role in the game that could disprove the only named claim in the game doesn't exist.  It's very possible all four claims come out and all roles are possible in some combination, and all we've done is tell scum who to shoot.

Do you understand?  Claiming tells scum who to shoot and tells town NOTHING.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 06:38:00 pm
...

Care to expand?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 19, 2014, 06:39:05 pm
I mean, it's most likely Jimmm anyway. what kind of post is this
 
Quote
I think silver realised how bad 3 ICs is for scum and so fakeclaimed in a panic. I won't be directed by him and will claim to the extent that he does, after he does.

what? every setup has 3 PR's. if they all claim and no scum claims PR, they have 3 IC's. If anything, it's a planed move, though that would be pretty stupid. it can't be panicking, unless I literally spend zero thought on the setup and just now realized that it can lead to IC's.

This is all so stupid, I almost want to just claim and get it over with. But that's not the best thing, so I'm asking others for their opinions here.

do you agree that we should follow faust's plan and win the game, or do you think we should something really stupid and anti town, like follow ahs's lead and don't claim?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 19, 2014, 06:40:46 pm
...

Care to expand?

Silver's response/language is unnecessarily argumentative.  You "sabotaging" the plan is a hyperbole at best.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 19, 2014, 06:48:12 pm
I mean, it's most likely Jimmm anyway. what kind of post is this
 
Quote
I think silver realised how bad 3 ICs is for scum and so fakeclaimed in a panic. I won't be directed by him and will claim to the extent that he does, after he does.

what? every setup has 3 PR's. if they all claim and no scum claims PR, they have 3 IC's. If anything, it's a planed move, though that would be pretty stupid. it can't be panicking, unless I literally spend zero thought on the setup and just now realized that it can lead to IC's.

This is all so stupid, I almost want to just claim and get it over with. But that's not the best thing, so I'm asking others for their opinions here.

do you agree that we should follow faust's plan and win the game, or do you think we should something really stupid and anti town, like follow ahs's lead and don't claim?

How does that make me scum?

Just claim then. I don't think faust's plan is significantly better than just claiming, you first.

Did I ever say we shouldn't claim? I opened today with a suggestion to massclaim and so far I'm following faust's plan exactly.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 06:51:24 pm
I think each PR should decide on their own if they think a claim is worthwhile.

Each PR can look at the possible setups and decide if there are specific combinations work testing for.  If you play Hearthstone, this is dropping your 1 mana minion to test for Mirror Image before dropping your big one.

It has been shown that claiming at this point doesn't catch anyone.  I don't know why anyone would push so hard for everyone to claim now that we know it's useless (in the context of finding the fake claim).  Someone claiming Detective now just let's scum know who is what.

Why is this not clear?  Sure, if two of the three claim the same role, then woo hoo.  But that would be fairly stupid, given scum know the actual setup within 2 groupings no matter what.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 19, 2014, 06:53:03 pm
This is the setup:

Quote
1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

We had one kill in Night one, two kills in Night two. That makes the existence of a SK extremely unlikely.

Quote
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

IG claimed Psychologist. In order for that to be a lie, there'd have to be a setup without Psychologist in it, otherwise he could just counter claim. That leaves #3 and #5. Everyone claimed non-BP, so neither of that is possible. which means IG told the truth. that's that. IG told the truth.

Okay, so we have a Psychologist. That leaves these setups:

2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

(by the way I edited 1-shot BP commutor to 1-shot Commutor, because that seems to be a mistake in the setup)

Okay, so these three are left. Aside from Psychologist, which we know exists, these are 6 different roles. every two PR's are contradicting. if we claim, we are guaranteed to get a 2-player pool with one scum in it.

Plus, what is your problem with my fake VT claim. This is a game. Not reality. Honesty is extremely important to me in Real life, but not here. It's a game. A game. Saying stuff like I made a horrible mistake is ludicrous. If anything, I didn't play very well. Of course, I am a PR, I'm still alive, which may or may not be because I made you believe that I'm a VT, and I have a plan that would have already won us the game if it wasn't for you, so I really don't see how I'm playing bad. But EVEN IF I am, it doesn't matter. I told you, if one town dies, you can lynch me. If I'm scum, profit. If I'm town and tellling the truth, profit. why are you still arguing???
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 19, 2014, 06:54:17 pm
Quote
Did I ever say we shouldn't claim? I opened today with a suggestion to massclaim and so far I'm following faust's plan exactly.

you are not following faust's plan, because you didn't follow #1. I said I'm not one of those roles, joth said it, you didn't.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 19, 2014, 06:55:56 pm
I think each PR should decide on their own if they think a claim is worthwhile.

Each PR can look at the possible setups and decide if there are specific combinations work testing for.  If you play Hearthstone, this is dropping your 1 mana minion to test for Mirror Image before dropping your big one.

It has been shown that claiming at this point doesn't catch anyone.  I don't know why anyone would push so hard for everyone to claim now that we know it's useless (in the context of finding the fake claim).  Someone claiming Detective now just let's scum know who is what.

Why is this not clear?  Sure, if two of the three claim the same role, then woo hoo.  But that would be fairly stupid, given scum know the actual setup within 2 groupings no matter what.

Really? We have guaranteed one scum in four and you don't think we should try to catch scum/create ICs within that group?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 19, 2014, 06:56:17 pm
Quote
Did I ever say we shouldn't claim? I opened today with a suggestion to massclaim and so far I'm following faust's plan exactly.

you are not following faust's plan, because you didn't follow #1. I said I'm not one of those roles, joth said it, you didn't.

I did.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 19, 2014, 06:57:20 pm
The worst thing about this is that I totally don't think you are scum ash. If you were, okay, you're making things more complicated to screw with the plan which you know will probably just win us the game. Legit scum play. And, you're doing it really good too. If you are scum, I think you're playing a great game. It's just that I don't think you are.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 19, 2014, 07:08:32 pm
Quote
I did.

I missed that. but in any case, if you haven't done it already, you did now, so cool. onto step #2

Quote
2. Anyone who can contradict the claimant claims. If noone does, massclaim, and we'll get two contradicting claims. We lynch one of them. Stop here.

I can't contradict it, and neither can anyone else, because noone claimed. so now we massclaim? cool.

I am a Jailkeeper. I targeted ash day one, because I was under the false impression that he was a valuable town player this game. I targeted Eevee day two. Noone has died, so either Eevee is scum, or scum tried to kill Eevee. I'm inclined to think the former. He was buddying me way too hard, and he tried defending Hydrad. I'm about 90% that he's scum, also because if he's town, why would scum try to kill him.

So, joth and Jimmm need to claim. If one of them claims JK, lynch him, he flips traitor, and that's that. If their roles contradict, lynch one of them. We don't have to lynch Eevee, because if he's scum, I can just keep imprisoning him (only one scum can do the NK), and if he's not scum, well then lynching him is bad anyway. So, no Eevee lynch today. We probably get the traitor today, maybe tomorrow, and then we can do Eevee. Unless there is a kill in the next night, then things are more complicated. But then Eevee is an IC.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 19, 2014, 07:11:08 pm
Oh, and this is the setup we're playing:

Quote
Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT

I knew this the whole time, so all of the complicated setup talk was completely unnecessary. either joth or Jimmmm is the watcher. that could be good results too.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 07:12:08 pm
I think each PR should decide on their own if they think a claim is worthwhile.

Each PR can look at the possible setups and decide if there are specific combinations work testing for.  If you play Hearthstone, this is dropping your 1 mana minion to test for Mirror Image before dropping your big one.

It has been shown that claiming at this point doesn't catch anyone.  I don't know why anyone would push so hard for everyone to claim now that we know it's useless (in the context of finding the fake claim).  Someone claiming Detective now just let's scum know who is what.

Why is this not clear?  Sure, if two of the three claim the same role, then woo hoo.  But that would be fairly stupid, given scum know the actual setup within 2 groupings no matter what.

Really? We have guaranteed one scum in four and you don't think we should try to catch scum/create ICs within that group?

It's a thought worth pursuing, but I'm not convinced it is the best use of our PRs.  Undeclared PRs live longer (as SS is arguing with his VT lie).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 07:12:53 pm
Oh, and this is the setup we're playing:

Quote
Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT

I knew this the whole time, so all of the complicated setup talk was completely unnecessary. either joth or Jimmmm is the watcher. that could be good results too.

Okay.  Can anyone confirm this?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 07:14:22 pm
Eevee's actions at the end of D2, in relation to the wagons, is definitely scummy, which I pointed out earlier.

That he was jailed and there was no kill is a possible scum point for him, too.

If someone can confirm silver's claim, that'd be great.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 19, 2014, 07:17:55 pm
okay and I have to go to the university tomorrow morning, and it's 1am, so I should have been asleep at least an hour ago. I've said all I need to anyway, so yea I'm off now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 07:19:06 pm
Jimmmmm and joth, up to you guys.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 19, 2014, 07:25:31 pm
I don't believe Silver is scum here.  If he is, he's become much better at it since Game of Thrones.

I also don't think Ash is anti-town here.  If you think this is anti-town, you don't know Ash.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 07:36:04 pm
I don't believe Silver is scum here.  If he is, he's become much better at it since Game of Thrones.

I also don't think Ash is anti-town here.  If you think this is anti-town, you don't know Ash.

I believe silver is being anti-town, but honestly, I agree with you.  I don't see silverspawn pulling this as scum.

He actually really reminds me of Xerxespraelor here.  Believing in this 100% when it's impossible to be 100%, viciously disagreeing with anyone who makes a point against him, etc.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 19, 2014, 07:40:59 pm
1-shot Commuter. I believe I breadcrumbed early on, which is actually a first for me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 19, 2014, 07:41:51 pm
Which means either Ichi or silver is scum (if I'm Town).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 07:43:53 pm
Which means either Ichi or silver is scum (if I'm Town).

Right, so claiming so far has told us of the three people who have claimed, three of them can be scum.

Which we already knew.

And I'm crazy for suggesting maybe claiming isn't helpful?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 07:44:19 pm
1-shot Commuter. I believe I breadcrumbed early on, which is actually a first for me.

Someone's going to ask if you've commuted.  I would not answer (unless at L-1 or lynched, I guess).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 07:45:09 pm
1-shot Commuter. I believe I breadcrumbed early on, which is actually a first for me.

Someone's going to ask if you've commuted.  I would not answer (unless at L-1 or lynched, I guess).

I guess you could be the reason no one died last night, but really, why would ANYONE shoot you?  (No offense.)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 19, 2014, 07:54:00 pm
Huh, interesting.

Joth, any input?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 19, 2014, 07:55:28 pm
1-shot Commuter. I believe I breadcrumbed early on, which is actually a first for me.

Someone's going to ask if you've commuted.  I would not answer (unless at L-1 or lynched, I guess).

I guess you could be the reason no one died last night, but really, why would ANYONE shoot you?  (No offense.)

None taken.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 19, 2014, 07:56:18 pm
Oh, I had a thought some time ago.

Mafia Traitor technically can't kill unless he is recruited or all other Mafia die (which is like being recruited).  So if Psych investigates him before recruitment, does he get not capable of killing?

Ichi, can you ask mod what you would get in this situation?  (That is, investigating Mafia traitor if he is not recruited and while other Mafia is alive.)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 19, 2014, 07:56:56 pm
Actually, Ash, how often do we lynch Jimmmm?  I can remember... none.  In fact, in every game I played with him I think he was around until LyLo.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 19, 2014, 08:02:12 pm
1-shot Commuter. I believe I breadcrumbed early on, which is actually a first for me.

Someone's going to ask if you've commuted.  I would not answer (unless at L-1 or lynched, I guess).

I know.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 08:02:59 pm
Actually, Ash, how often do we lynch Jimmmm?  I can remember... none.  In fact, in every game I played with him I think he was around until LyLo.

He is quite the survivor, but I don't think that's an alignment tell.  He's been at lylo often, as both alignments.

He has great town performances where he deserves to die, but doesn't, I guess.  But this hasn't been one of them.  (No offense.)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 19, 2014, 08:11:17 pm
Oh, I had a thought some time ago.

Mafia Traitor technically can't kill unless he is recruited or all other Mafia die (which is like being recruited).  So if Psych investigates him before recruitment, does he get not capable of killing?

Ichi, can you ask mod what you would get in this situation?  (That is, investigating Mafia traitor if he is not recruited and while other Mafia is alive.)
Mm. Not sure if that's neccesarry. From my role PM, I feel very certain that I would receive an unable to kill result on an unrecruited traitor--since they don't have the capability to kill at the time I diagnose them.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 19, 2014, 08:16:37 pm
Oh, I had a thought some time ago.

Mafia Traitor technically can't kill unless he is recruited or all other Mafia die (which is like being recruited).  So if Psych investigates him before recruitment, does he get not capable of killing?

Ichi, can you ask mod what you would get in this situation?  (That is, investigating Mafia traitor if he is not recruited and while other Mafia is alive.)
Mm. Not sure if that's neccesarry. From my role PM, I feel very certain that I would receive an unable to kill result on an unrecruited traitor--since they don't have the capability to kill at the time I diagnose them.

Okay, that's what I assumed, but I wanted to be sure.  That's something to keep in mind.. Ichi's result clears up to:

(1) Investigation Immune.  (By the way, are the shots passive?)
(2) Traitor that isn't recruited.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 19, 2014, 08:17:34 pm
Actually, Ash, how often do we lynch Jimmmm?  I can remember... none.  In fact, in every game I played with him I think he was around until LyLo.

He is quite the survivor, but I don't think that's an alignment tell.  He's been at lylo often, as both alignments.

Yeah I don't know what it is, I usually seem to be able to worm my way out of a lynch as Town or scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 08:18:33 pm
Oh, I had a thought some time ago.

Mafia Traitor technically can't kill unless he is recruited or all other Mafia die (which is like being recruited).  So if Psych investigates him before recruitment, does he get not capable of killing?

Ichi, can you ask mod what you would get in this situation?  (That is, investigating Mafia traitor if he is not recruited and while other Mafia is alive.)
Mm. Not sure if that's neccesarry. From my role PM, I feel very certain that I would receive an unable to kill result on an unrecruited traitor--since they don't have the capability to kill at the time I diagnose them.

Okay, that's what I assumed, but I wanted to be sure.  That's something to keep in mind.. Ichi's result clears up to:

(1) Investigation Immune.  (By the way, are the shots passive?)
(2) Traitor that isn't recruited.

(3) Anyone who has already killed.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 19, 2014, 08:19:39 pm
If there's no SK, there's guaranteed scum in me/silver.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 08:40:36 pm
If Ichi and Silver are telling the truth:

2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

If Ichi and Jimmmmm are telling the truth:

4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor

If Silver and Jimmmmm are telling the truth:

7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer



Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 08:41:48 pm
If Ichi and Silver are telling the truth:

2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

If Ichi and Jimmmmm are telling the truth:

4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor

If Silver and Jimmmmm are telling the truth:

7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer

The Detective is possible in all liar scenarios.
As Jimmmmm mentioned, no SK means one of Jimmmmm/Silver is lying.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 19, 2014, 10:19:24 pm
Should I claim now? Weirdly, my claim corroborates silver's story but my role doesn't match up with his claim. I investigated Eevee last night and got "No result" which would seem to suggest he really was jailkept.

But I am, in fact, the Detective.

I actually investigated silver night one -- he did not kill night one. I also breadcrumbed early and can point it out if need be.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 19, 2014, 10:22:37 pm
I also hate day 1 and am a big fan of getting it over with as quickly as possible. So, I'm not for sure locked in but vote: Ichimaru until someone convinces me otherwise.

that's my breadcrumb, bolding added. sure lock = Sherlock = detective.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 10:59:07 pm
If Ichi, Silver, joth are telling the truth:

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

If Ichi, Jimmmmm, joth are telling the truth:

4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor

If Silver, Jimmmmm, joth are telling the truth:

7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer



And we have three viable setups for four claims.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 11:01:09 pm
Good news is, no one is investigation immune automatically -- only if there is an SK and he actively used it one night.

We know for sure mafia's "power" is knows traitor or traitor knows them.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 19, 2014, 11:08:25 pm
If Ichi, Silver, joth are telling the truth:

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

If Ichi, Jimmmmm, joth are telling the truth:

4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor

If Silver, Jimmmmm, joth are telling the truth:

7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer



And we have three viable setups for four claims.

I think this is very helpful honestly.  It's got to be silver or ichi. #4 is the most likely because it seems so unlikely we have a serial killer.
On the other hand, silver's claim explains my lack of an investigative result last night. It also greatly implicates Eevee, who was protecting Hydrad last turn, as the third scum team member (given the no kill)

Maybe, and this is a little crazy, we lynch Eevee and none of the claimed PRs. That way there's no risk of accidentally killing one of our PRs tonight.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 19, 2014, 11:09:39 pm
I'm calling Ichi-Eevee-Hydrad as the team, though with the traitor there's one more. Seems to fit the facts pretty well? It means Ichi took a chance claiming psychologist, but given how many times he hit L1, that doesn't seem far-fetched to me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 19, 2014, 11:11:17 pm
Eevee turning scum basically clears Silver I think, so not a bad choice.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 19, 2014, 11:12:51 pm
I'm calling Ichi-Eevee-Hydrad as the team, though with the traitor there's one more. Seems to fit the facts pretty well? It means Ichi took a chance claiming psychologist, but given how many times he hit L1, that doesn't seem far-fetched to me.

That means Ichi is traitor and not on the team.. Not sure if that's significant.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 11:13:09 pm
I'm calling Ichi-Eevee-Hydrad as the team, though with the traitor there's one more. Seems to fit the facts pretty well? It means Ichi took a chance claiming psychologist, but given how many times he hit L1, that doesn't seem far-fetched to me.

The "team" is two players, with one traitor.

I do think Eevee is Hydrad's partner.  And he was jailed and there was no kill would mean he's not the traitor.  That would make the fake claimant the Traitor...which is risky.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 11:14:30 pm
Out of the claimants, I've already said Ichi and Silver are the scummiest, both based on the way the claims happened and their actions/posts.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 19, 2014, 11:16:35 pm
Ok, you're Ichi. You're the traitor. You know who the mafia are, so you know you're in:


3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer

No psychologist. It was safe from counterclaims.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 19, 2014, 11:16:54 pm
Ichi, result?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 11:18:57 pm
If Ichi, Silver, joth are telling the truth:

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

If Ichi, Jimmmmm, joth are telling the truth:

4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor

If Silver, Jimmmmm, joth are telling the truth:

7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer



And we have three viable setups for four claims.

I think this is very helpful honestly.  It's got to be silver or ichi. #4 is the most likely because it seems so unlikely we have a serial killer.
On the other hand, silver's claim explains my lack of an investigative result last night. It also greatly implicates Eevee, who was protecting Hydrad last turn, as the third scum team member (given the no kill)

Maybe, and this is a little crazy, we lynch Eevee and none of the claimed PRs. That way there's no risk of accidentally killing one of our PRs tonight.

I would say joth is confirmed at this point, except that, well, with all the other claiming, all he had to do was claim Detective.  So if he's scum with silver, he was able to verify his partner.

That's like 9th level conspiracy theory stuff, though.  Given my town read on joth, I'm going with occam's razor and the most likely thing is he is town and honest.

So the liar is (to me) within silver/ichi/jimmmm.

Ichi claimed under pressure, silver lied.  Jimmmmm...he's been absent a lot of the game.

Gameplay tells me that if we hadn't done any claims, I'd be going after Eevee for the way he was going into deadline at D2 with Hydrad on the block.  If we stick with it and lynch him, I have to imagine scum kills Joth, unless silver is telling the truth AND roleblocks the right person; but then scum can no kill on purpose to try and frame whomever silver roleblocks.

And if scum is silver, he can do both, just no killing and killing off people for fun based on his "targeting".
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 11:19:25 pm
Ok, you're Ichi. You're the traitor. You know who the mafia are, so you know you're in:


3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer

No psychologist. It was safe from counterclaims.

Which means we're in Setup 7.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 11:20:26 pm
If that's true, we lynch Ichi and roleblock Eevee (or the other way around).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 19, 2014, 11:21:03 pm
I'm feeling pretty confident. I would like to lynch Ichi or Eevee today, the other one tomorrow, and then win the game.

Also, we don't want to kill silver. Because if he's telling the truth, he can jailkeep the same person again tonight and they won't even be able to make a kill.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 19, 2014, 11:21:41 pm
but that means we have a serial killer!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 19, 2014, 11:22:07 pm
I'm feeling pretty confident. I would like to lynch Ichi or Eevee today, the other one tomorrow, and then win the game.

Also, we don't want to kill silver. Because if he's telling the truth, he can jailkeep the same person again tonight and they won't even be able to make a kill.

I mean, it's Ichi vs. Silver vs. Jimmmmm, and really to me it's Ichi vs. Silver.

There's something to be said for not lynching either and people doing their thing.  If silver jailkeeps, that means those people can't be investigated, though.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 19, 2014, 11:46:46 pm
Ichi, result?
I diagnosed jothenoah last night and was told he was unable to kill. I picked him since he was one of the scummier players to me at the time--and he's received pretty low suspicion. Also, from what I can tell, he's a strong town player (when he is in fact town), so semi-confirming his alignment would hopefully make people listen to him more.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 19, 2014, 11:47:17 pm
*jotheonah  ;)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 01:18:40 am
Sorry guys, I had a really busy weekend. Not that I would have had anything to add to the claiming discussion anyways.

So, the topic of defending myself, I'm stumped. Killing me after I was so wrong about Hydrad feels SO weird. What other motivation could they have? I was pretty firmly pro-silverspawn, so a team with him likely wouldn't do it. I was relatively pro-Jimmm, so I think it makes him look better too. I was hard on IG, and joth to an extent, so my first inclination is that one of them would be the liar.

Of the VT's, I need to reread the end of yesterday to get an idea. I'll be getting on that now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 01:24:02 am
If there's no SK, there's guaranteed scum in me/silver.
And this of course contradicts with the earlier logic 100%. No way scum AND the SK tried to kill me..

Joth's breadcrum also looks believable.

One possibility is of course that scum thought I breadcrumbed/pr-slipped, I have had a tendency to use wordings that seem to mean more than they do in the past. I'm currently very lost, starting that reread now.

I will say that my vote obviously goes to killing one of the claimants and jailkeeping me
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 01:41:42 am
Vote Count 2.4

Jimmmmm (2): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin
Hydrad (1): Witherweaver
Ichimaru Gin (3): jotheonah, silverspawn, Eevee
ashersky (1): Jimmmmm
silverspawn (2): faust, ashersky

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends on Wednesday, October 15, 7:30 PM FT.

That's in 12 hours!

admin note: I may or may not be on at deadline.  If not, you can expect a flip by 10:00PM forum time (unless it happens sooner)

So, this was the situation 12 hours prior to the deadline. We didn't just default to a Hydrad lynch, someone made it happen and hopefully more people than myself tried to oppose it.


I think hydrad may be happening

vote: Hydrad

See this is exactly what I didn't want to see happening. Stick to your guns, silver! Let's make Ichi the default lynch!

This started the push towards Hydrad. Lots of town points to silver, scum points to joth.

I prefer Ichi to Hydrad. Vote: Ichi

well then I'll

vote: Ichi

aswell
This negates some of the town points from silver. Jimm also looks worse.


Next up is me disagreeing with Hydrad and WW pushing Hydrad, so town points for WW as well, not that he was in the lynch pool for today anyways.

Can anyone (other than Hydrad) convince why I should not vote for Hydrad?

I'll give it a go. Letting Ichi get away and last-minute lynching Hydrad feels extremely reminiscent of the ending of day 1 to me and I have no reason to believe it will end differently.

Someone being on most everybody's "would lynch" list is a pretty good indication they're town anyway.
Joth defending Hydrad some more.

yea so, let's just do Ichi. He is at L-1.
Had silver stayed on Hydrad the entire time, I think it would have gone long ways towards clearing him. Now, not so much.
Quote
Okay, setup says scum get safe fake claims, so maybe.  But why wouldn't he use his fake claim Day 1?  Scum mentality would be to claim so that he wouldn't get lynched.. worry about arguing why he's still alive later.  I don't think he'd be so forward thinking to think "Well, if I really was an investigator, I wouldn't claim with no result because that doesn't help town.  I'd try to fight my lynch and claim with something useful later."  That's much more likely to come from town, and would only come from scum if they're thinking really big picture with all the contingencies.  Ichi has been scum, like, once?

This is a good point.

unvote

If Ichi is not scum, that makes me feel worse about the Hydrad lynch too. So, at this point, maybe Jimmm is the best option.
Yeah, the first towny push on Hydrad has now changed to trying to get us into other direction. Silver not feeling towny anymore.

vote: Hydrad

That's L-3. He only has two votes (WW and me)
vote: Hydrad

WW makes some good points. We can worry about IG tomorrow if he survives the night.
Silver and Joth then revive the Hydrad wagon (towny).

Well, that was unnecessary.

Vote: Jimmmmm for now.
faust's first contribution to this. scummy, this was a very pivotal point.

That said, I'll hammer if needed before deadline.

We have some time for talking though.

Jimmmmm, are you around?
Not a good look for ash, another person trying to push us to Jimm.

well, I got to go. But no way scum!Jimmmmm is actually just not around at deadline. I think Eevee and ash should switch to Hydrad.
Town points for joth.

vote: hydrad


Jimmmmm (4): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin, faust, Eevee
Hydrad (4): Witherweaver, jotheonah, silverspawn, ashersky
Ichimaru Gin (1): Jimmmmm




Hydrad also at L-1.  If Jimmmmm returns, I expect he'd hammer out of self-preservation...
Town points for ash, nothing really changed but he went back to Hydrad, knowing that Jimmm would likely hammer him if he appeared.




And that was all. Well, it's not very clear, I look terrible which isn't helpful because I know I'm town.

With the lack of kills, I'm fine assuming no SK, which mean IG had to be truthful, right?

Of the three other claimants, joth came off towniest, for sure. Jimmm didn't really do anything but the self-preservation hammer like he had to, he wasn't around to push us to either direction, so no read either way there. Silver was going back and forth a lot, could be scum balancing saving partner and not being obvious, or could be indecisive town. Ash looks towny for ultimately making Hydrad possible, WW looks towny for continuously pushing him (WW looks the towniest of all, I think), and faust looks scummy for his only contribution was trying to deflect away from Hydrad.

Gah.


Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 01:44:28 am
I was hoping doing the reread would help me see the light, but no. This is really bad, objectively I see I just look so much worse than anyone else. It's crazy they tried to kill me and now it happens to frame me like this. I don't know what I could do here, I reread but I'm not sure who the scum is, and all the evidence points towards me because I was wrong about Hydrad and scum happened to try to kill me (which is unlikely and I don't have any strong arguments as to why it happened now).

I guess my best hope is trying to argue that I can be jailkept so we can try to hit one of the claimants. If we lynch me, you'll have to nail the fakeclaimant today or you'll lose, which is very very bad and it would be much better for us to try to do that now, but I understand me saying that doesn't do much for any of you.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 01:45:15 am
Ultimately, silver's team has so little incentive to kill me unless they really thought I was a pr, that my preferred lynch would be Jimmm.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 03:52:55 am
If Ichi, Silver, joth are telling the truth:

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

If Ichi, Jimmmmm, joth are telling the truth:

4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor

If Silver, Jimmmmm, joth are telling the truth:

7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer

Okay, so let me go through things.

Scenario 1: Jimmmmm is lying.

We have two factions here, so we have to account for missing night kills. Serial Killer can always choose to do some other action, would he do that? Otherwise, well, there are lots of possibilities for a missing night kill: Both scum killed ADK (weird), ash was killed and protected, mafia shot the SK, SK chose to perform another action.

So Jimmmmm's fakeclaim is definitely the most convenient for scum. No results to give, and an explanation for staying alive.

How is there no death tonight though? Either the SK performed another option, and mafia got blocked, or (more likely) mafia shot the SK/SK got blocked. Which implies Eevee.

Scenario 2: silver is lying

Here, we have no SK, which definitely makes things easier. The missing nightkill tonight is an issue here... either scum targeted Jimmmmm (unlikely), or the Traitor targeted mafia (also unlikely), or scum chose to no kill (possible, but I'd not consider it much).

That silver lies would be implied by the fact that he claims to have targeted claimed VTs twice, which is unconfirmable. But I think this scenario is not very likely.

Scenario 3: Ichi is lying

First, I think that means that Ichi is Mafia. A SK would not get through eventually with such an early fakeclaim. Actually, I really think SK would not claim a PR in most scenarios. So if Ichi is mafia, he knew that Hydrad was his partner (because Traitor knows mafia). That fits with him being off-wagon.

Scenario 3 has the most possibilities to account for missing night kills, I guess (JK + Commuter), so there's that. It's still likely that Eevee is scum in this.

Some conclusion: If silver lies, we have no SK and thus are guaranteed to have another mislynch available. So we can lynch Eevee, see his flip, decide on silver's alignment. If silver tells the truth, well, Eevee is a very good target.

So yeah, vote: Eevee is best, I think.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 04:07:23 am
On the other hand, we could jailkeep Eevee to confirm stuff. But that's bad, right? Because the Traitor can just roleblock silver if Eevee is scum. So it has to be a lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 20, 2014, 05:17:06 am
On the other hand, we could jailkeep Eevee to confirm stuff. But that's bad, right? Because the Traitor can just roleblock silver if Eevee is scum. So it has to be a lynch.

Right.  Worst case, traitor blocks silver, goon kills joth.

We need to hit one today.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 05:22:32 am
I'll do the setup analysis again. this has been done already, but it's better if I go through it myself

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune


crossed all that don't have JK. These 4 were possible from Day1 on based on my role alone


2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer

crossed 2  because there is no way that watcher doesn't claim. town!watcher just has zero reason not to claim. Same goes for 3 with 1-shot BP, so cross 3


6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer

so, we really have a SK. I thought this was extremely unlikely. like, a few percent or something. in james bond mafia, I knew voltaire was lying, because his claim could only be true in a scenario with 0 randomed T's, which was less than 1%. This is similar. One one-kill night - okay, but a 0-kill night AND a 1-kill night? well, it happened. This is like the first time there's a real reason to mistrust me, and now you're starting to believe me. I don't get it. If I were you, I'd kill me based on the fact that me lying is the only scenario without a SK.

But alas, these two setups are akin to Ichi/Jimmm lying. So, one of them is scum, most likely the traitor. At least this doesn't change the fact that Eevee is most likely the non-traitor scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 05:28:11 am
Joth is an IC now. and if Eevee is scum/SK, and Ichi or Jimmmm are the traitor, there is one scum/SK in the remaining pool.

I think it's likely that either ash got shot day1, or he tried to shoot. Unfortunately, him getting shoot is a pretty reasonable scenario, so I don't really know. I don't think scum or SK shot Jimmmm.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 05:38:58 am
If it's 50% between Ichi and Jimmmm, I'm leaning on Ichi again, based on reads. Jimmmm also didn't lurk as much here as in Zelda Mafia. I think this is town!Jimmmm.

and there's that

Ichi, result?
I diagnosed jothenoah last night and was told he was unable to kill. I picked him since he was one of the scummier players to me at the time--and he's received pretty low suspicion. Also, from what I can tell, he's a strong town player (when he is in fact town), so semi-confirming his alignment would hopefully make people listen to him more.

joth is supposed to be the scummiest player? really? how about Eevee?

I guess Jimmm has it easier here, because he doesn't have fake targets, but I don't think Ichi would diagnose joth. If he did, joth is of course unable to kill.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 05:40:08 am
okay, you said "scummier" not "scummiest". So I guess that's legit.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 05:46:27 am
A musing... lynching the SK today clears silver. This points slightly towards lynching a VT, as I think the SK is almost certainly to be found there.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 05:47:22 am
And I was going to make a point about how scum is JOAT here and Eevee can srongman if he's scum, so it's not secure if I imprison him, but I guess it doesn't even matter, because there is no strongman. Of course, now traitor can - and most likely will - roleblock me. Which means, we should kill the traitor.

I think this is a good point:

Quote
How is there no death tonight though? Either the SK performed another option, and mafia got blocked, or (more likely) mafia shot the SK/SK got blocked. Which implies Eevee.

so, that means Eevee is probably the SK. So, if we lynch him we don't kill the roleblocker. But killing SK is probably good anyway, so... yea.

vote: Eevee is certainly best here
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 05:57:48 am
I'm confused, why is it more likely there is a SK than that there isn't?

Out of the non-claimants, faust is easily the scummiest to me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 20, 2014, 05:58:24 am
A musing... lynching the SK today clears silver. This points slightly towards lynching a VT, as I think the SK is almost certainly to be found there.

Are we assuming there's a SK?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 05:58:40 am
I'm really really not scum and killing me leaves us in a horrible spot, but I'm not sure what I can do to avoid being the lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 05:59:19 am
A musing... lynching the SK today clears silver. This points slightly towards lynching a VT, as I think the SK is almost certainly to be found there.

Are we assuming there's a SK?
That's how I'm reading faust's and silver's previous posts.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 06:00:55 am
Which is confusing to me because we've only had one kill in two nights. Occam's razor etc.

Also, suspecting me of being a SK because I defended hydrad makes no sense. How have I veen scummy otherwise?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 06:02:52 am
Quote
That's how I'm reading faust's and silver's previous posts.
well see my post. There are 3 possibilities

#1 a town!BP didn't claim
#2 a town!Watcher didn't claim
#3 we have a SK

#1 and #2 would just be incredibly anti town. there's no discussion here. town!watcher or BP has no reason not to claim. so, there must be a SK.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 20, 2014, 06:04:20 am
Quote
That's how I'm reading faust's and silver's previous posts.
well see my post. There are 3 possibilities

#1 a town!BP didn't claim
#2 a town!Watcher didn't claim
#3 we have a SK

#1 and #2 would just be incredibly anti town. there's no discussion here. town!watcher or BP has no reason not to claim. so, there must be a SK.

#4 (and this one's a biggie) you're scum
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 06:04:35 am
Quote
Also, suspecting me of being a SK because I defended hydrad makes no sense. How have I veen scummy otherwise?

I think you're the SK because I was putting you in prison last night? didn't you notice? well, and if scum tried to kill you, which would be at least kind of possible, and you tried to kill someone else, I stopped both kills by putting you imprison. No idea why I released you for today though.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 20, 2014, 06:05:35 am
Quote
Also, suspecting me of being a SK because I defended hydrad makes no sense. How have I veen scummy otherwise?

I think you're the SK because I was putting you in prison last night? didn't you notice? well, and if scum tried to kill you, which would be at least kind of possible, and you tried to kill someone else, I stopped both kills by putting you imprison. No idea why I released you for today though.

Maybe scum no-killed to try to validate your claim.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 06:07:03 am
Quote
#4 (and this one's a biggie) you're scum

yea of course, as I said, If I were one of you, I'd lynch me because no SK is just way more likely.

Although, I guess this

Should I claim now? Weirdly, my claim corroborates silver's story but my role doesn't match up with his claim. I investigated Eevee last night and got "No result" which would seem to suggest he really was jailkept.

But I am, in fact, the Detective.

I actually investigated silver night one -- he did not kill night one. I also breadcrumbed early and can point it out if need be.

kind of clears me, so maybe I wouldn't. But the most was from my perspective. I know for a fact that there is a SK now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 06:07:48 am
the most *post
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 20, 2014, 06:08:46 am
Quote
#4 (and this one's a biggie) you're scum

yea of course, as I said, If I were one of you, I'd lynch me because no SK is just way more likely.

Although, I guess this

Should I claim now? Weirdly, my claim corroborates silver's story but my role doesn't match up with his claim. I investigated Eevee last night and got "No result" which would seem to suggest he really was jailkept.

But I am, in fact, the Detective.

I actually investigated silver night one -- he did not kill night one. I also breadcrumbed early and can point it out if need be.

kind of clears me, so maybe I wouldn't. But the most was from my perspective. I know for a fact that there is a SK now.

jo's claim doesn't clear you at all.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 06:09:05 am
A musing... lynching the SK today clears silver. This points slightly towards lynching a VT, as I think the SK is almost certainly to be found there.

Are we assuming there's a SK?
That's how I'm reading faust's and silver's previous posts.

Well, the only scenario where there's no SK is where silver is scum... in that case, we can lynch you and, if you're town, at least strongly consider silver.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 06:10:08 am
And then there's the thing with me not being good enough as scum to do this. as much as I would like to contradict here, Voltaire did figure me out after one day in GoT
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 06:11:14 am
Quote
jo's claim doesn't clear you at all.
it kind of does, he investigated me N1, and I probably would have done the kill as scum, but more importantly, he received no result on Eevee, and I put him in prison. furthermore, I claimed that before Joth. Is that even possible otherwise?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 06:13:27 am
Actually, hold on. Being put into jail doesn't rolestop the target in this setup. my pm specifically says that other, non-killing actions can be performed on the target. Joth investigating Eevee does not clear me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 06:14:21 am
Should I claim now? Weirdly, my claim corroborates silver's story but my role doesn't match up with his claim. I investigated Eevee last night and got "No result" which would seem to suggest he really was jailkept.

But I am, in fact, the Detective.

I actually investigated silver night one -- he did not kill night one. I also breadcrumbed early and can point it out if need be.

Coming back to this.

You got "no result" on Eevee? That doesn't make sense, does it? If someone is jailkept, you usually still get results on them - at least that's what mafiascum suggests.

e, if someone targeted a jailkept player with an investigative action, would they get a result?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 06:14:39 am
PPE: silver thinking the same thing.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 06:16:25 am
Okay, if silver says that's what his PM says, a new question arises - why did joth get no result on Eevee? That means joth was blocked, yes?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 06:16:42 am
So this is interesting, how did he receive no result? I think it could be

#1 Traitor roleblocked him
#2 SK roleblocked him (and didn't try to kill)

these are definitely possible, though I don't think #2 is very likely.

And, SK is one-shot investigation immune. But I assume that makes a "didn't kill" result, and not a no-result. Joth?

PPE3
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 20, 2014, 06:17:25 am
A musing... lynching the SK today clears silver. This points slightly towards lynching a VT, as I think the SK is almost certainly to be found there.

Are we assuming there's a SK?
That's how I'm reading faust's and silver's previous posts.

Well, the only scenario where there's no SK is where silver is scum... in that case, we can lynch you and, if you're town, at least strongly consider silver.

Why would silver being scum lead you to lynch me?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 06:18:23 am
A musing... lynching the SK today clears silver. This points slightly towards lynching a VT, as I think the SK is almost certainly to be found there.

Are we assuming there's a SK?
That's how I'm reading faust's and silver's previous posts.

Well, the only scenario where there's no SK is where silver is scum... in that case, we can lynch you and, if you're town, at least strongly consider silver.

Why would silver being scum lead you to lynch me?

pretty sure "you" meant "Eevee" here.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 06:19:22 am
A musing... lynching the SK today clears silver. This points slightly towards lynching a VT, as I think the SK is almost certainly to be found there.

Are we assuming there's a SK?
That's how I'm reading faust's and silver's previous posts.

Well, the only scenario where there's no SK is where silver is scum... in that case, we can lynch you and, if you're town, at least strongly consider silver.

Why would silver being scum lead you to lynch me?

pretty sure "you" meant "Eevee" here.

Confirming this.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 06:20:29 am
so, back to the no-result thing. I think Joth played a very strong game, so it's probably most likely that traitor roleblocked him. Which would be Ichi or Jimmmm.

interesting here is that Ichi said he found Joth scummy. So, that's kinda clever if he is in fact the traitor. otherwise, it was just Jimmmm
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 06:20:40 am
Vote: silverspawn seems pretty clear to me then..
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 06:25:13 am
Vote: silverspawn seems pretty clear to me then..

during James Bond mafia, Voltaire was buddying me the whole time. Then I started suspecting him, and when he was about to get lynched, he voted me, only to flip scum immediately. pretty sure the exact same thing is happening here.

the problem here really is that you buddying me is just so opportunistic. we get along great outside of this game, you are known for buddying, I am a new player, it's just such an obvious move. And you were overdoing it, I mean I claimed VT day 1. where is it coming from? And, if you really had such a strong town read on me, why would you change your mind now? It doesn't make a lot of sense.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 06:26:44 am
This doesn't mean people should stop buddying me in future games though  :P
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 06:28:38 am
Vote: silverspawn seems pretty clear to me then..

during James Bond mafia, Voltaire was buddying me the whole time. Then I started suspecting him, and when he was about to get lynched, he voted me, only to flip scum immediately. pretty sure the exact same thing is happening here.

the problem here really is that you buddying me is just so opportunistic. we get along great outside of this game, you are known for buddying, I am a new player, it's just such an obvious move. And you were overdoing it, I mean I claimed VT day 1. where is it coming from? And, if you really had such a strong town read on me, why would you change your mind now? It doesn't make a lot of sense.
I don't understand!

I don't think I've been buddying you, I've had a town read on you based on your actions. Now, new information comes to light, I'm either forced to believe there is a serial killer and we are missing 3 kills in 2 nights, or that I was wrong about you, and you didn't actually lie about being a vt because you are a power role but you lied about being a vt because you are scum.

Step in my shoes, I'm a VT. What would you believe?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 06:34:24 am
Quote
I don't think I've been buddying you, I've had a town read on you based on your actions. Now, new information comes to light, I'm either forced to believe there is a serial killer and we are missing 3 kills in 2 nights, or that I was wrong about you, and you didn't actually lie about being a vt because you are a power role but you lied about being a vt because you are scum.
I mean, this is exactly what I was saying earlier. If it was coming from anyone else, I'd totally believe it. But since everyone else is suddenly starting to believe me, how come the player with the strongest town read on me previously is the first one to vote?

Quote
Step in my shoes, I'm a VT. What would you believe?
Well I already answered this. If I was one of you, I would vote for me, because I wouldn't believe in the existence of a SK. But if I were you, I would not have buddied me in the first place - (I think you did, maybe that's debatable). I am not you though. You are you. You can try to push my lynch now, if you're a VT, that's probably the best thing you can do. But I'm like 95% that you're not town at this point.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 20, 2014, 06:42:26 am
Here's what I'm thinking.

Ichi was the first person to actually claim a PR. If he is scum, then the add on is Traitor Knows Mafia/SK.
If this is the case, then it's reasonable to assume that Ichi is the Traitor, since he would then have the most information and be in the best position to make a logical claim.
If Ichi was the Traitor, then he would know that we have either Column 3 or Row 3.
If we have Column 3, Psychologist is a believable claim since from a Neutral point of view with the other claims, we could have Row 4.
But if we have Row 3, there is in fact no logical fake claim, and a Psychologist claim would quickly be found out against the three real claims.

If he was instead the SK, he would know we have either Column 2, Column 3 or Row 1. This would make Psychologist a reasonable claim for scum trying to mess up ICs, but not so good for a SK trying to stay alive.

So if Ichi is scum then he didn't have enough information to know that his claim wouldn't immediately be caught out.

If, on the other hand, silver is scum and knew that the Mafia knew the Traitor, then he'd know we have either Row 4 or Column 2, neither of which would immediately out a fakeclaimed JK.

In summary, Ichi didn't have enough information to make a safe (at least safe enough to not be immediately outed) fakeclaim, while silver did.

Vote: silverspawn
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 06:43:15 am
I think there's another argument - if I am town, we have 3 Players left to lynch. But if I were scum, ther'd be a SK, and only 2 players left to lynch.

So, let's say you kill Eevee today.

If he flips town, I know that the game is lost, because there are only 7 Players left, at least one will die in the night, and 3 of them are anti town. Which means, I don't care what happens then anyway. If Eevee is VT, I think we just lose. But you will assume that I am scum, so you will lynch me. And if I were scum, it would be like this:

8 players
lynch Eevee -> 7 players
NK -> 6 players
lynch me -> 5 players
NK -> 4 players

that's still MYLO, but it's probably a decent spot to be in, all things considered. you still have PR's left, so you can nolynch, forcing a situation with 3 players. and maybe the detective can create ICs or something.

I hope my thought process here isn't too complicated. The argument here is basically that the scum!me scenario warrants an Eevee lynch. WW was saying something similar before I think.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 20, 2014, 06:45:36 am
Here's what I'm thinking.

Ichi was the first person to actually claim a PR. If he is scum, then the add on is Traitor Knows Mafia/SK.
If this is the case, then it's reasonable to assume that Ichi is the Traitor, since he would then have the most information and be in the best position to make a logical claim.
If Ichi was the Traitor, then he would know that we have either Column 3 or Row 3.
If we have Column 3, Psychologist is a believable claim since from a Neutral point of view with the other claims, we could have Row 4.
But if we have Row 3, there is in fact no logical fake claim, and a Psychologist claim would quickly be found out against the three real claims.

If he was instead the SK, he would know we have either Column 2, Column 3 or Row 1. This would make Psychologist a reasonable claim for scum trying to mess up ICs, but not so good for a SK trying to stay alive.

So if Ichi is scum then he didn't have enough information to know that his claim wouldn't immediately be caught out.

If, on the other hand, silver is scum and knew that the Mafia knew the Traitor, then he'd know we have either Row 4 or Column 2, neither of which would immediately out a fakeclaimed JK.

In summary, Ichi didn't have enough information to make a safe (at least safe enough to not be immediately outed) fakeclaim, while silver did.

Vote: silverspawn

For the record, if I'm scum I had plenty of information to provide a fakeclaim. However, I do have an early breadcrumb if anyone's found it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 06:47:30 am
Quote
I don't think I've been buddying you, I've had a town read on you based on your actions. Now, new information comes to light, I'm either forced to believe there is a serial killer and we are missing 3 kills in 2 nights, or that I was wrong about you, and you didn't actually lie about being a vt because you are a power role but you lied about being a vt because you are scum.
I mean, this is exactly what I was saying earlier. If it was coming from anyone else, I'd totally believe it. But since everyone else is suddenly starting to believe me, how come the player with the strongest town read on me previously is the first one to vote?

Quote
Step in my shoes, I'm a VT. What would you believe?
Well I already answered this. If I was one of you, I would vote for me, because I wouldn't believe in the existence of a SK. But if I were you, I would not have buddied me in the first place - (I think you did, maybe that's debatable). I am not you though. You are you. You can try to push my lynch now, if you're a VT, that's probably the best thing you can do. But I'm like 95% that you're not town at this point.
You aren't making any sense buddy. I had a townread on you until it was a) revealed that your VT claim was a lie and b) you being town would require rather extraordinary circumstances (3/4 kills being somehow blocked). You think my position is suspicious somehow, what?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 06:49:17 am
Man I wish I understood this setup things better. Jimm's post makes sense to me, but I think I could easily be fooled.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 06:52:31 am
I'm more and more feeling silverspawn and faust for scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 06:57:22 am
I'm more and more feeling silverspawn and faust for scum.

What reason does scum!silver have to claim VT at game start?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 20, 2014, 07:00:19 am
I'm more and more feeling silverspawn and faust for scum.

What reason does scum!silver have to claim VT at game start?

I don't know. Probably the same reason PR!silver does. Maybe he decided to do it before he got his PM.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 07:00:36 am
I think there's another argument - if I am town, we have 3 Players left to lynch. But if I were scum, ther'd be a SK, and only 2 players left to lynch.

So, let's say you kill Eevee today.

If he flips town, I know that the game is lost, because there are only 7 Players left, at least one will die in the night, and 3 of them are anti town. Which means, I don't care what happens then anyway. If Eevee is VT, I think we just lose. But you will assume that I am scum, so you will lynch me. And if I were scum, it would be like this:

8 players
lynch Eevee -> 7 players
NK -> 6 players
lynch me -> 5 players
NK -> 4 players

that's still MYLO, but it's probably a decent spot to be in, all things considered. you still have PR's left, so you can nolynch, forcing a situation with 3 players. and maybe the detective can create ICs or something.

I hope my thought process here isn't too complicated. The argument here is basically that the scum!me scenario warrants an Eevee lynch. WW was saying something similar before I think.

I want to point out that just because scum outnumbers us, they don't win automatically - SK and Mafia can kill off each other. But yes, it's no longer in our hands then.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 20, 2014, 07:02:27 am
I think there's another argument - if I am town, we have 3 Players left to lynch. But if I were scum, ther'd be a SK, and only 2 players left to lynch.

Isn't it the other way around - there's a SK if you're Town and not if you're scum?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 07:05:25 am
Here's what I'm thinking.

Ichi was the first person to actually claim a PR. If he is scum, then the add on is Traitor Knows Mafia/SK.
If this is the case, then it's reasonable to assume that Ichi is the Traitor, since he would then have the most information and be in the best position to make a logical claim.
If Ichi was the Traitor, then he would know that we have either Column 3 or Row 3.
If we have Column 3, Psychologist is a believable claim since from a Neutral point of view with the other claims, we could have Row 4.
But if we have Row 3, there is in fact no logical fake claim, and a Psychologist claim would quickly be found out against the three real claims.

If he was instead the SK, he would know we have either Column 2, Column 3 or Row 1. This would make Psychologist a reasonable claim for scum trying to mess up ICs, but not so good for a SK trying to stay alive.

So if Ichi is scum then he didn't have enough information to know that his claim wouldn't immediately be caught out.

If, on the other hand, silver is scum and knew that the Mafia knew the Traitor, then he'd know we have either Row 4 or Column 2, neither of which would immediately out a fakeclaimed JK.

In summary, Ichi didn't have enough information to make a safe (at least safe enough to not be immediately outed) fakeclaim, while silver did.

Vote: silverspawn

That's some very insightful analysis. I appreciate that you're getting more involved, Jimmmmm.

I don't know how I should judge the fact that you're making an argument that can easily be turned against you. Seems townie, but could be a preemptive strike of scum thinking "someone will make that argument eventually, better if it's me".

You are right that Ichi looks quite townie through this. And if Ichi is town, it's 50/50 between you and silver, which is probably even better odds than between Eevee/silver...
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 07:06:50 am
I'm more and more feeling silverspawn and faust for scum.

What reason does scum!silver have to claim VT at game start?
If claiming VT automatically made people town, scum would be doing it more often.

Not getting shot by the SK springs to mind as one potential reason. Good old fancy play syndrome as another. Who do you think is scum, out of the claimants?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 07:08:21 am
Here's what I'm thinking.

Ichi was the first person to actually claim a PR. If he is scum, then the add on is Traitor Knows Mafia/SK.
If this is the case, then it's reasonable to assume that Ichi is the Traitor, since he would then have the most information and be in the best position to make a logical claim.
If Ichi was the Traitor, then he would know that we have either Column 3 or Row 3.
If we have Column 3, Psychologist is a believable claim since from a Neutral point of view with the other claims, we could have Row 4.
But if we have Row 3, there is in fact no logical fake claim, and a Psychologist claim would quickly be found out against the three real claims.

If he was instead the SK, he would know we have either Column 2, Column 3 or Row 1. This would make Psychologist a reasonable claim for scum trying to mess up ICs, but not so good for a SK trying to stay alive.

So if Ichi is scum then he didn't have enough information to know that his claim wouldn't immediately be caught out.

If, on the other hand, silver is scum and knew that the Mafia knew the Traitor, then he'd know we have either Row 4 or Column 2, neither of which would immediately out a fakeclaimed JK.

In summary, Ichi didn't have enough information to make a safe (at least safe enough to not be immediately outed) fakeclaim, while silver did.

Vote: silverspawn

That's some very insightful analysis. I appreciate that you're getting more involved, Jimmmmm.

I don't know how I should judge the fact that you're making an argument that can easily be turned against you. Seems townie, but could be a preemptive strike of scum thinking "someone will make that argument eventually, better if it's me".

You are right that Ichi looks quite townie through this. And if Ichi is town, it's 50/50 between you and silver, which is probably even better odds than between Eevee/silver...
If someone is pre-emptively making arguments, it's silverspawn. First he says "If I were you, I'd lynch me", but then he suspects me for wanting to lynch him. Weird.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 07:10:28 am
I'm more and more feeling silverspawn and faust for scum.

What reason does scum!silver have to claim VT at game start?
If claiming VT automatically made people town, scum would be doing it more often.

Not getting shot by the SK springs to mind as one potential reason. Good old fancy play syndrome as another. Who do you think is scum, out of the claimants?

I don't have strong preferences... I still maintain a town read on Ichi. Jimmmmm is still quite null, but certainly possible. silver could very well be scum, but might be cleared.

I actually, in a vacuum, would think Jimmmmm is the most likely liar. But I'm not sure his recent play fits this assumption.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 07:12:07 am
Really like the setup, I have to say. This is the kind of situation I love to face.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 07:13:15 am
If someone is pre-emptively making arguments, it's silverspawn. First he says "If I were you, I'd lynch me", but then he suspects me for wanting to lynch him. Weird.

The way I understood him, that's not really the reason he suspects you.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 07:14:38 am
This post, though.

Quote
I don't think I've been buddying you, I've had a town read on you based on your actions. Now, new information comes to light, I'm either forced to believe there is a serial killer and we are missing 3 kills in 2 nights, or that I was wrong about you, and you didn't actually lie about being a vt because you are a power role but you lied about being a vt because you are scum.
I mean, this is exactly what I was saying earlier. If it was coming from anyone else, I'd totally believe it. But since everyone else is suddenly starting to believe me, how come the player with the strongest town read on me previously is the first one to vote?

Quote
Step in my shoes, I'm a VT. What would you believe?
Well I already answered this. If I was one of you, I would vote for me, because I wouldn't believe in the existence of a SK. But if I were you, I would not have buddied me in the first place - (I think you did, maybe that's debatable). I am not you though. You are you. You can try to push my lynch now, if you're a VT, that's probably the best thing you can do. But I'm like 95% that you're not town at this point.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 07:15:45 am
Well, I can see that it's scummy, but I just read it as confirmation bias.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 07:16:00 am
Worst part about lynching me would be that it wouldn't give us any new info. At least if we guess wrong among the claimants, we face an easier decision tomorrow. I think having me flip VT would pretty much just doom us.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 07:16:40 am
Worst part about lynching me would be that it wouldn't give us any new info. At least if we guess wrong among the claimants, we face an easier decision tomorrow. I think having me flip VT would pretty much just doom us.

Having you flip VT would heavily implicate silver.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 07:19:02 am
Worst part about lynching me would be that it wouldn't give us any new info. At least if we guess wrong among the claimants, we face an easier decision tomorrow. I think having me flip VT would pretty much just doom us.

Having you flip VT would heavily implicate silver.
I think silver is already heavily implicated!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 20, 2014, 07:19:56 am
That's some very insightful analysis. I appreciate that you're getting more involved, Jimmmmm.

Thanks. :)
When we only had 3 PR claims and it didn't look like we were going to have another one, I could be certain (based on jo and Ichi being ICs and Ichi claiming Psychologist) that jo was the Detective. He couldn't know for sure I was the Commuter unless he assumed no SK. I was debating the merits of claiming Detective and faking some results (dangerous I know but worst case my flip would clear it up). The point being that jo would, knowing that I'm Town and lying about my role, see what I was doing and figure that I knew he was the Detective and I was therefore the Commuter, and then he would claim Commuter so that our claims didn't contradict scum's add-on. The point of all of this being that I would then hopefully draw the NK, giving jo an extra Night to get results.
Of course, jo may not have received the message I would have been trying to send. It felt a bit like Hanabi.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 20, 2014, 07:24:32 am
I don't know how I should judge the fact that you're making an argument that can easily be turned against you. Seems townie, but could be a preemptive strike of scum thinking "someone will make that argument eventually, better if it's me".

I was looking at Ichi v silver, knowing that I'm Town. I then realised it would be useful to look at myself with the same analysis, and acknowledged that in my next post.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 07:24:49 am
That's some very insightful analysis. I appreciate that you're getting more involved, Jimmmmm.

Thanks. :)
When we only had 3 PR claims and it didn't look like we were going to have another one, I could be certain (based on jo and Ichi being ICs and Ichi claiming Psychologist) that jo was the Detective. He couldn't know for sure I was the Commuter unless he assumed no SK. I was debating the merits of claiming Detective and faking some results (dangerous I know but worst case my flip would clear it up). The point being that jo would, knowing that I'm Town and lying about my role, see what I was doing and figure that I knew he was the Detective and I was therefore the Commuter, and then he would claim Commuter so that our claims didn't contradict scum's add-on. The point of all of this being that I would then hopefully draw the NK, giving jo an extra Night to get results.
Of course, jo may not have received the message I would have been trying to send. It felt a bit like Hanabi.

Wow... I think a post like that would be really, really hard to fake as scum. I'm will assume you're town for now. Also, nice thinking. That would have been awesome had it worked out.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 07:25:34 am
I'm swayed towards vote: silverspawn now.

That is L-2.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 20, 2014, 07:27:56 am
That's some very insightful analysis. I appreciate that you're getting more involved, Jimmmmm.

Thanks. :)
When we only had 3 PR claims and it didn't look like we were going to have another one, I could be certain (based on jo and Ichi being ICs and Ichi claiming Psychologist) that jo was the Detective. He couldn't know for sure I was the Commuter unless he assumed no SK. I was debating the merits of claiming Detective and faking some results (dangerous I know but worst case my flip would clear it up). The point being that jo would, knowing that I'm Town and lying about my role, see what I was doing and figure that I knew he was the Detective and I was therefore the Commuter, and then he would claim Commuter so that our claims didn't contradict scum's add-on. The point of all of this being that I would then hopefully draw the NK, giving jo an extra Night to get results.
Of course, jo may not have received the message I would have been trying to send. It felt a bit like Hanabi.

Wow... I think a post like that would be really, really hard to fake as scum.

Truth be known that crossed my mind and contributed to me deciding to post it even though it otherwise doesn't really help the game.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 20, 2014, 07:30:15 am
Also, nice thinking. That would have been awesome had it worked out.

Thanks. With only 3 PR claims I could have easily backed out of it and explained myself if it didn't work out. The biggest roadblock was that I'd have to come up with fake results.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 08:18:08 am
I want to point out that just because scum outnumbers us, they don't win automatically - SK and Mafia can kill off each other. But yes, it's no longer in our hands then.

so, if I were scum, you could do Eevee and then me and probably win. which means, no reason to lynch me now. so why do it?

Eevee voting me just tells me that he's scum, I'm about 95% sure of that, and if I'm wrong, we just lose anyway (at least almost certainly). My guess right now is that, Eevee is the SK, Jimmm is scum or traitor, and someone else is scum/traitor. Even though that means I have to accept that town!IG played the day1 that he did. Then this is our setup:

Quote
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

Jimmmm knows I'm town, so he's trying to get my killed. The two votes for me fit right into my narrative here. plus, Jimmmm just won Zelda mafia by lurking, there is no way we let him do this again, so it's very logical for him to be more active now (though you could of course also make on opposing argument here). yea, pretty confident that it's Eevee + Jimmmm + ?, I don't think town!Jimmm pressures me here.

of course, if you do lynch me, it's even worse than lynching town!eevee, because I'm also our strongest PR. then we just lose. I mean, it's at least completely obvious that if I am town and you lynch me, the game is over, because then you play 7-3, without a JK, vs two killing factions, and with a Night start. so, what I said in the last post. If you think I'm scum, kill Eevee first. If you think I'm town, kill Eevee first.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 08:34:18 am
Why does me voting you tell you that I'm scum?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 08:39:24 am
Why does me voting you tell you that I'm scum?

It was already like 90%, because I targeted you last night and noone died. I know for sure there is a SK, so I must have prevented at least one kill, most likely both. SK and scum both shot you? I don't think so.

The other 5% come from your one eighty. voting for me just when you're getting into trouble is extremely opportunistic, and it's, as I said, the same thing Voltaire did in James Bond Mafia. You could vote me for self-preservation, and that would be fine, but you aren't. You made it sound like you really thought I was scum. I don't buy it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 08:40:06 am

so, we really have a SK. I thought this was extremely unlikely. like, a few percent or something. in james bond mafia, I knew voltaire was lying, because his claim could only be true in a scenario with 0 randomed T's, which was less than 1%. This is similar. One one-kill night - okay, but a 0-kill night AND a 1-kill night? well, it happened. This is like the first time there's a real reason to mistrust me, and now you're starting to believe me. I don't get it. If I were you, I'd kill me based on the fact that me lying is the only scenario without a SK.

You said it yourself, if you were us, you'd lynch yourself. How can you possibly find it proof of me being scum that I think it's far more likely that you are scum than it is that we have a SK?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 08:45:23 am
I don't think you are making sense, but arguing with scum tends to be pretty pointless. It's not like you are ever going to convince them to confess.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 08:45:34 am
Quote
You said it yourself, if you were us, you'd lynch yourself. How can you possibly find it proof of me being scum that I think it's far more likely that you are scum than it is that we have a SK?
I said that, and then you voted for me. Both the "then" and the "you" are suspicious about that. Why should you be the first person to find that scummy? Why not faust, WW, ash, joth? And why didn't you vote for me before I posted it? It just looks like you took it as an excuse.

But even if that argument doesn't convince you, fact remains that a no-kill happened after I imprisoned you. At LyLo, that's more than enough reason to lynch you. There is no way I can change to someone else. That would just be horrible play.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 08:46:28 am
If silver is lying about being the jailkeeper, where could tonight's kill have gone?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 08:46:41 am
Quote
I don't think you are making sense, but arguing with scum tends to be pretty pointless. It's not like you are ever going to convince them to confess.

In my situation, would you lynch for someone other than you?

No. Of course not. So, really, saying that I don't make sense is pretty absurd.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 08:46:52 am
Quote
You said it yourself, if you were us, you'd lynch yourself. How can you possibly find it proof of me being scum that I think it's far more likely that you are scum than it is that we have a SK?
I said that, and then you voted for me. Both the "then" and the "you" are suspicious about that. Why should you be the first person to find that scummy? Why not faust, WW, ash, joth? And why didn't you vote for me before I posted it? It just looks like you took it as an excuse.

But even if that argument doesn't convince you, fact remains that a no-kill happened after I imprisoned you. At LyLo, that's more than enough reason to lynch you. There is no way I can change to someone else. That would just be horrible play.
yes, because I didn't realize the only setup where you could be truthful would be one with a serial killer before you said it!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 08:47:34 am
Quote
You said it yourself, if you were us, you'd lynch yourself. How can you possibly find it proof of me being scum that I think it's far more likely that you are scum than it is that we have a SK?
I said that, and then you voted for me. Both the "then" and the "you" are suspicious about that. Why should you be the first person to find that scummy? Why not faust, WW, ash, joth? And why didn't you vote for me before I posted it? It just looks like you took it as an excuse.

But even if that argument doesn't convince you, fact remains that a no-kill happened after I imprisoned you. At LyLo, that's more than enough reason to lynch you. There is no way I can change to someone else. That would just be horrible play.
Right, that's all true if you are what you claim. What I'm saying is you must be lying.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 08:48:54 am
Quote
Right, that's all true if you are what you claim. What I'm saying is you must be lying.

Of course you're saying that, you're the SK.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 08:49:12 am
Quote
I don't think you are making sense, but arguing with scum tends to be pretty pointless. It's not like you are ever going to convince them to confess.

In my situation, would you lynch for someone other than you?

No. Of course not. So, really, saying that I don't make sense is pretty absurd.
I mean you have to stick to your guns. I just don't think the reasons you are giving make any sense. My explanation for that is that they aren't real because you aren't actually a jailkeeper. You created these "damning circumstances" for me with your claim. I'm saying I don't think your claim is truthful.

And we obviously aren't ever going to convince each other. I guess both sides have laid their argument for the others to consider now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 08:49:31 am
I mean, is there any scenario where we are both truthful here? Genuine question.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 20, 2014, 08:49:42 am
That's some very insightful analysis. I appreciate that you're getting more involved, Jimmmmm.

Thanks. :)
When we only had 3 PR claims and it didn't look like we were going to have another one, I could be certain (based on jo and Ichi being ICs and Ichi claiming Psychologist) that jo was the Detective. He couldn't know for sure I was the Commuter unless he assumed no SK. I was debating the merits of claiming Detective and faking some results (dangerous I know but worst case my flip would clear it up). The point being that jo would, knowing that I'm Town and lying about my role, see what I was doing and figure that I knew he was the Detective and I was therefore the Commuter, and then he would claim Commuter so that our claims didn't contradict scum's add-on. The point of all of this being that I would then hopefully draw the NK, giving jo an extra Night to get results.
Of course, jo may not have received the message I would have been trying to send. It felt a bit like Hanabi.

Sir, I am way too dumb for that level of play.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 08:51:16 am
Quote
I mean, is there any scenario where we are both truthful here? Genuine question.
yea, there is. If there wasn't, I would know 100% that you're scum. I'm only about 95%.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 08:55:53 am
Quote
I mean, is there any scenario where we are both truthful here? Genuine question.
yea, there is. If there wasn't, I would know 100% that you're scum. I'm only about 95%.
For me it would require that either I was shot by both factions or that Jimm commuted and one/both factions shot him?

Both feel so improbable for me, whereas you being scum would explain everything quite neatly (except the missing kill? Is there any other way than Jimmm's commuting?).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 20, 2014, 08:57:21 am
Ok, another point to consider. We have 8 surviving townies -- 4 claimed PRs and 4 claimed VTs. If there's no SK, we know there's one scum in each group.

BUT if there's a serial killer, we know that there are two scum in the VT group. Given that, lynching a VT gives us a 50/50 shot at scum, even not taking into account the evidence. If we lynch Eevee, the scummiest VT in the scenario where there is an SK, I just really like our chances, plus then scum has to leave alive either me or silver, which is quite helpful.

vote: Eevee

Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 08:58:21 am
Gah.

I'm losing this game for town.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 08:58:32 am
And it's a horrible horrible feeling.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 08:59:04 am
But it's my word against silver's. I don't know what I can do about it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 20, 2014, 09:02:26 am
wait a minute, unvote
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 20, 2014, 09:02:57 am
I want to hear e's response about the JK/investigation interaction. That's pretty important.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 09:05:44 am
I feel there is a lot of information and the key to all of this might lie there somewhere, but it's pretty confusing.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 09:51:14 am
Well, a lot happened.

Um.. Joth gets no result.  Possibilities:

(1) Joth is Roleblocked by Mafia Traitor
(2) Joth's Target (Eevee, right?) used an investigation immune.  This means either SK with JOAT or Mafia.  I haven't been following all the setup possibilities.  Is 1-shot investigation immune addon to mafia possible?  What does it imply about our claims?
(3) Eevee is lying Town and used 1-shot commuter (and therefore Jimmmm is scum), but I refuse to believe this possibility.

That's it, right?  Eevee still could be Jailkept by Silver, it just doesn't explain Joth's result.

I think (1) is just as likely as (2).  Joth's posts did kind of indicate he had a PR, and he was incredibly townie, so he's a natural choice for Roleblocking.

Gut-wise, I feel worse about Ichi.  Eevee doesn't seem so bad after the latest bunch of posts.  Jimmmm's argument on Ichi vs. Silverspawn makes sense, but my gut tells me Ichi is more of a liar-liar-pants-on-fire than Silver is.  (Despite Silver already admitting to lying~)

Ichi targeted Joth when he had no good reason to.  If (1) is true, Joth really was targeted by Roleblocker.  Ichi could be afraid of Watcher so he wants to admit his target truthfully. (Did he know there was no Watcher when he made his claim?)  I have to check plausibility in that, but

Vote: Ichi

for now.  I've done exactly this, as scum, in Innovation.  I had to fake claim a target on someone because I really did target them and I was afraid they were Watched.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 09:52:10 am
If silver is lying about being the jailkeeper, where could tonight's kill have gone?

Three options:

1. Scum targeted Jimmmmm who commuted. Given what Jimmmmm said so far, I doubt he commuted, so that not it.
2. The Traitor accidentally roleblocked his partner.
3. Scum chose to no kill for WIFOM and to make silver's claim believable.

I think 3 is most likely, though 2 is also an option.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 09:53:12 am
Well, a lot happened.

Um.. Joth gets no result.  Possibilities:

(1) Joth is Roleblocked by Mafia Traitor
(2) Joth's Target (Eevee, right?) used an investigation immune.  This means either SK with JOAT or Mafia.  I haven't been following all the setup possibilities.  Is 1-shot investigation immune addon to mafia possible?  What does it imply about our claims?
(3) Eevee is lying Town and used 1-shot commuter (and therefore Jimmmm is scum), but I refuse to believe this possibility.

That's it, right?  Eevee still could be Jailkept by Silver, it just doesn't explain Joth's result.

I think (1) is just as likely as (2).  Joth's posts did kind of indicate he had a PR, and he was incredibly townie, so he's a natural choice for Roleblocking.

Gut-wise, I feel worse about Ichi.  Eevee doesn't seem so bad after the latest bunch of posts.  Jimmmm's argument on Ichi vs. Silverspawn makes sense, but my gut tells me Ichi is more of a liar-liar-pants-on-fire than Silver is.  (Despite Silver already admitting to lying~)

Ichi targeted Joth when he had no good reason to.  If (1) is true, Joth really was targeted by Roleblocker.  Ichi could be afraid of Watcher so he wants to admit his target truthfully. (Did he know there was no Watcher when he made his claim?)  I have to check plausibility in that, but

Vote: Ichi

for now.  I've done exactly this, as scum, in Innovation.  I had to fake claim a target on someone because I really did target them and I was afraid they were Watched.

For completeness: (4) The SK jailkept joth.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 09:55:07 am
I don't really think we're in a situation for gut reads. If Ichi is mafia, he would know that there's no Watcher.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 09:56:41 am
I mean, is there any scenario where we are both truthful here? Genuine question.

SK performed a non-killing action, mafia targeted you (or was roleblocked, I guess?)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 09:58:30 am
Possibilities on no kill:

(I) NO SK:

(1) Eevee was the target by Mafia and Silver is telling the truth.  Doesn't make a lot of sense.
(2) Eevee was the killer and Silver is telling the truth.  Makes more sense.
(3) Jimmmm was the target and commuted
(4) Traitor did not know Mafia and Roleblocked killer.  (Unlikely I think.)

(II) SK:
(1) Eevee was the target by SK and Silver is telling the truth.  Still seems unlikely.. does it make sense for SK to target Eevee here?
(2) All of (1--4) by Mafia and SK chose to not kill in order to use an ability.  (Investigation immunity, for instance.  Or is that passive?)
(3) All of (1--4) by Mafia and SK also shot the same target.  Also unlikely.

All these cases are getting a bit rough.  Can someone make a table of each PR lying and what it means for the setup, specifically SK/no SK? 

PPE: Faust.  Also has a point on Jailkeeping that can be added to above.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 09:59:41 am
A different way to look at the situation is this: If Eevee is Mafia, he is almost certainly a Goon (otherwise the whole killing argument just doesn't make sense). I think we would be better off if we manage to lynch the Traitor/Roleblocker, or SK if that exists, with an Eevee lynch that's pretty much guaranteed to fail.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 10:00:58 am
I don't really think we're in a situation for gut reads. If Ichi is mafia, he would know that there's no Watcher.

Okay, I guess that's correct. 

Unvote

Maybe "half clearing Joth" makes sense.. but Joth has done zero scummy things the entire game.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 10:01:02 am
If silver is lying about being the jailkeeper, where could tonight's kill have gone?

Three options:

1. Scum targeted Jimmmmm who commuted. Given what Jimmmmm said so far, I doubt he commuted, so that not it.
2. The Traitor accidentally roleblocked his partner.
3. Scum chose to no kill for WIFOM and to make silver's claim believable.

I think 3 is most likely, though 2 is also an option.
None of those feel very likely though. Man. Seems something unlikely has happened.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 10:01:28 am

What do you make of the fact that it's very hard for both me and silver to be town? Like very, very hard.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 10:02:43 am

What do you make of the fact that it's very hard for both me and silver to be town? Like very, very hard.

Why was this again?  Because the lack of a kill?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 10:02:51 am
Hey, what if the SK shot me, trying to hit mafia?

Still wouldn't explain where mafia's kill went, though.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 10:03:58 am

What do you make of the fact that it's very hard for both me and silver to be town? Like very, very hard.

Why was this again?  Because the lack of a kill?
I know I didn't kill anyone, but silver is claiming I was jailkept and that's why we are missing kills. I could see a serial killer shooting me, but why would mafia ever do that?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 10:04:32 am
This is making my head hurt. I fear we might be missing something very obvious, just because it's all so confusing.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 10:05:52 am
If silver is lying about being the jailkeeper, where could tonight's kill have gone?

Three options:

1. Scum targeted Jimmmmm who commuted. Given what Jimmmmm said so far, I doubt he commuted, so that not it.
2. The Traitor accidentally roleblocked his partner.
3. Scum chose to no kill for WIFOM and to make silver's claim believable.

I think 3 is most likely, though 2 is also an option.
None of those feel very likely though. Man. Seems something unlikely has happened.

Okay, if this is true Traitor does not know his partner:

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

So we're in

4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

So in (4) Silver is sum, in (6) Jimmm is scum.  In (4) Silver HAS to be the Traitor.  Who can Roleblock.. which is like jailkeeping.. sensible fakeclaim? 

Does Traitor!Silver know there can't be a Jailkeeper at the point where he claims it?  Is he willing to take the risk to out him?

PPEs: Eevee
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 10:06:12 am
Possibilities on no kill:

(I) NO SK:

(1) Eevee was the target by Mafia and Silver is telling the truth.  Doesn't make a lot of sense.
(2) Eevee was the killer and Silver is telling the truth.  Makes more sense.
(3) Jimmmm was the target and commuted
(4) Traitor did not know Mafia and Roleblocked killer.  (Unlikely I think.)

(II) SK:
(1) Eevee was the target by SK and Silver is telling the truth.  Still seems unlikely.. does it make sense for SK to target Eevee here?
(2) All of (1--4) by Mafia and SK chose to not kill in order to use an ability.  (Investigation immunity, for instance.  Or is that passive?)
(3) All of (1--4) by Mafia and SK also shot the same target.  Also unlikely.

All these cases are getting a bit rough.  Can someone make a table of each PR lying and what it means for the setup, specifically SK/no SK? 

PPE: Faust.  Also has a point on Jailkeeping that can be added to above.

I think Investigation Immune is in addition to killing; it's only the town roles he can only perform if he gives up the kill. Which town roles does the SK even want to perform? Certainly not Bodyguard. Not Goon Cop/Detective/Psychologist/Watcher; just not worth giving up a kill. Not 1-shot BP, as he is BP already. Maaaybe 1-shot Commuter if investigation immunity is used up, but unlikely. JK might be good, but he doesn't want to protect anyone, so arguably worse than killing.

No I don't think the SK wants to give up his night kill. Only reason for this would be fear of being watched. But Watcher and SK are mutually exclusive.

... I don't think the SK ever wants to give up his kill here.

PPE 6, wow.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 10:07:21 am
But does investigation immune trigger the first time he's investigated?  Or does he have to activate it one night?  I'm thinking the first, because the second would kind of suck, right?
Title: Re: Mafia ?? : Silo Mafia - Signups Open - Setup Coming Soon
Post by: jotheonah on October 20, 2014, 10:08:29 am
From the setup post:

Mafia Investigation Immune is universal. It will return results of "Not Goon" to Goon Cops, "Not Killed" to Detectives, "Can't Kill" to Psychologists and "Didn't Target Anyone" to Watchers.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 10:08:58 am
Yeah, I'm thinking that the most likely reason for the SK to not shoot is forgetting to submit the order.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 10:09:39 am
(2) Joth's Target (Eevee, right?) used an investigation immune.  This means either SK with JOAT or Mafia.  I haven't been following all the setup possibilities.  Is 1-shot investigation immune addon to mafia possible?  What does it imply about our claims?

This is impossible btw. The OP explicitly states which results will be given when investigating someone who is immune. It's not "No result".
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 10:09:55 am
Ohhhhhhhh... so that doesn't explain no result.

So um... Joth's target commuted or Joth was Roleblocked.  Means Eevee is SK who used JOAT commute or Traitor roleblocked Joth.  Second is most likely.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 10:10:03 am
Ninja'd
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 10:11:03 am
Hey, what if the SK shot me, trying to hit mafia?

Still wouldn't explain where mafia's kill went, though.

Why would SK want to shoot you, though?  Isn't it better for them to hit town here?

OH YEAH.. keep on forgetting, Mafia could have shot their Traitor and recruited him.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 10:12:40 am
Hey, what if the SK shot me, trying to hit mafia?

Still wouldn't explain where mafia's kill went, though.

Why would SK want to shoot you, though?  Isn't it better for them to hit town here?

OH YEAH.. keep on forgetting, Mafia could have shot their Traitor and recruited him.

Note that this is only possible if Mafia doesn't know the Traitor (they wouldn't shoot him otherwise, would they?), which is only if Ichi lies.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 10:14:07 am
Oooooh so the missing mafia kill could be them recruiting the traitor?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 10:14:58 am
Oooooh so the missing mafia kill could be them recruiting the traitor?

Not if silver lies.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 10:15:29 am
Hey, what if the SK shot me, trying to hit mafia?

Still wouldn't explain where mafia's kill went, though.

Why would SK want to shoot you, though?  Isn't it better for them to hit town here?

OH YEAH.. keep on forgetting, Mafia could have shot their Traitor and recruited him.

Note that this is only possible if Mafia doesn't know the Traitor (they wouldn't shoot him otherwise, would they?), which is only if Ichi lies.

Didn't someone argue it was a sensible move to intentionally recruit earlier?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 10:16:12 am
Hey, what if the SK shot me, trying to hit mafia?

Still wouldn't explain where mafia's kill went, though.

Why would SK want to shoot you, though?  Isn't it better for them to hit town here?

OH YEAH.. keep on forgetting, Mafia could have shot their Traitor and recruited him.

Note that this is only possible if Mafia doesn't know the Traitor (they wouldn't shoot him otherwise, would they?), which is only if Ichi lies.

Didn't someone argue it was a sensible move to intentionally recruit earlier?

Really? I would definitely not do it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 10:17:52 am
Oooooh so the missing mafia kill could be them recruiting the traitor?

Not if silver lies.
Why? Sorry, I'm really having trouble following this.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 20, 2014, 10:21:44 am
Oooooh so the missing mafia kill could be them recruiting the traitor?

Not if silver lies.
Why? Sorry, I'm really having trouble following this.

If silver lies, Mafia knows the Traitor. I argue that mafia wouldn't purposefully shoot the Traitor.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 10:23:55 am
Oooooh so the missing mafia kill could be them recruiting the traitor?

Not if silver lies.
Why? Sorry, I'm really having trouble following this.

If silver lies, Mafia knows the Traitor. I argue that mafia wouldn't purposefully shoot the Traitor.
The problem with that argument for me is that something unlikely clearly must have happened. The other conditions seem less unlikely than this, so I wouldn't rule it out completely.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 10:24:35 am
I mean I agree, I don't think they would. But man, these other conditions are tall orders too.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 10:25:56 am
Say Traitor!Silver Roleblocks Mafia by mistake. We're here:

4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor

Now, what would he do in this situation?  No kill tells him that his target was most likely Mafia.  Does he lie to try to implicate someone else?    Would two mislynches (Eevee + one of the claimed PRs) be enough to win?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 10:27:20 am
But wait if that's true, Joth couldn't have gotten Roleblocked.  Which means his target had to have commuted, which is only possible if Eevee is SK that used JOAT commuting.

But then we can't be in

4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor

because there is no SK.

So, uh.. Traitor did not Roleblock Mafia last night?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 10:54:07 am
If a non-Silver Traitor roleblocked Mafia killer last night... then we're in:

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

So Jimmmm is scum, and we have a Serial Killer.  Again, Joth was not Roleblocked, which means Eevee is the SK that used JOAT to commute. 

So that's a possibility.  And this is the only way that the no kill is explained by Traitor Roleblocking Mafia shooter, because the other one is a contradiction.

Right?

Well, lynching Eevee clears this case, and if he flips SK then Jimmm is likely scum?

If Eevee flips town then we can't be in that scenario, so no kill is explained another way:

(1) Eevee was target and Silver told the truth
(2) Scum decided not to kill for "framing" purposes.  I never buy this one.
(3) Jimmm commuted
(4) SK was target and commuted.

If (1) is true, then we're in

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer        (Jimmm Scum)
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer (Ichi Scum)

If (3) is true, then we're in

4. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer  (Ichi scum)
7. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor                   (Silver scum)

If (4) is true, then we're in

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer        (Jimmm scum)
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer (Ichi scum)

I'm pretty sure there is no new info here, but I guess it was good to go through anyway. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 10:54:53 am
Oh, I forgot the case of Mafia shooting Traitor.  Blah
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 11:05:57 am
Eevee is the SK. I put him in jail - you're welcome - and that stopped kills. there's your explanation. why did it stop 2 kills? well, I don't know, maybe scum thought he was a good option for a safe kill. Maybe mafia did recruit the traitor, in that case Ichi is lying. maybe the traitor blocked the kill.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 11:07:45 am
Eevee is the SK. I put him in jail - you're welcome - and that stopped kills. there's your explanation. why did it stop 2 kills? well, I don't know, maybe scum thought he was a good option for a safe kill. Maybe mafia did recruit the traitor, in that case Ichi is lying. maybe the traitor blocked the kill.

So do you think it's Ichi or Jimmmm?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 11:12:20 am
first I thought it's Ichi because of his day1 play, then I thought it's Jimmmmm, mostly because he voted for me, now I'm thinking it's probably Ichi again. while I don't like Jimmmm's posts very much, I agree a little bit with faust that it might not be the easiest thing to do as scum. Although, I have no idea how good Jimmmmm is as scum if he does something, because I've only ever seen him lurking.

maybe 55% Ichi, 45% Jimmmm, 95% Eeevee
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 11:16:28 am
Is Joth actually logically excluded from being scum?

Let's see.. if Joth is lying:

...  okay not possible.  Any setup without Detective implies PRs that no one has claimed.  So, Joth is 100% Town.  Someone probably said that already.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 11:19:30 am
yes, joth is an IC
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 11:20:58 am
actually, I didn't know that it was impossible from everyone's perspective, I just knew that he was an IC for me.

so, i'm sure town!IC!goodplayer!niceguy!town!joth will agree to lynch Eevee.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 11:24:17 am
Why is lynching Eevee better than lynching one of the PR claims? After all, we know for a fact there is scum in {Ichi, Silver, Jimmmm}.  Eevee turning up town won't change this, I think.  Eevee turning SK I believe implicates Jimmmm.  Eevee turning Mafia.. I'm not sure.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 11:27:08 am
Eevee is the SK. I put him in jail - you're welcome - and that stopped kills. there's your explanation. why did it stop 2 kills? well, I don't know, maybe scum thought he was a good option for a safe kill. Maybe mafia did recruit the traitor, in that case Ichi is lying. maybe the traitor blocked the kill.

Well, traitor could not have blocked the kill, because Traitor had to have Roleblocked Joth.

Unless SK!Eevee chose to commute.

Any scenario has to explain both no kill last night AND conftown!Joth receiving "No Result".
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 11:27:39 am
because I think Eevee is most likely the SK, and if we kill the SK, we stop one night kill. If we kill scum, traitor gets the NK, and if we kill traitor, scum can still NK. In both cases, we can still lose 2 people during the night. Of course, traitor can roleblock, so that's good to get rid off too, but not as good as stopping a kill. I think it's SK > Traitor > Scum for our targets.

plus I'm way more certain on Eevee, so I'd rather risk that now than doing a more or less coinflippy decision between Jimmm and Ichi.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 11:29:08 am
Quote
Any scenario has to explain both no kill last night AND conftown!Joth receiving "No Result".

right. it's still more plausible then any scenario where I'm not JK. so scum probably shot Eevee and Traitor roleblocked Joth.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 11:32:32 am
Quote
Any scenario has to explain both no kill last night AND conftown!Joth receiving "No Result".

right. it's still more plausible then any scenario where I'm not JK. so scum probably shot Eevee and Traitor roleblocked Joth.

But why would scum shoot Eevee?  Instead of more obvious town choices.. me, Joth, even Ichi if he's telling the truth.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 11:34:15 am
actually, thinking about it some more, it might be more likely for Eevee to be scum than the SK. SK!Eevee has less motivation to defend hydrad than Scum!Eevee. and there is only one scum who can do the NK, so the fact that me targeting him apparently stopped kills doesn't really make it more likely that he's the SK.

so, maybe he is just scum, then that's less good than hitting traitor.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 11:35:20 am
Quote
But why would scum shoot Eevee?  Instead of more obvious town choices.. me, Joth, even Ichi if he's telling the truth.

well, the obvious explanation would be that they were afraid of me "doctoring" any of you.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 11:35:59 am
Quote
But why would scum shoot Eevee?  Instead of more obvious town choices.. me, Joth, even Ichi if he's telling the truth.

well, the obvious explanation would be that they were afraid of me "doctoring" any of you.

No one had claimed yet, though, except Ichi.  Would they even know JK is in the setup?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 11:36:08 am
I would so love to defend myself, but all the scenarios compatible with the claims just seem so far-fetched. :(
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 20, 2014, 11:37:21 am
I'm pretty into lynching Eevee to be honest. It's nice to be an IC. It means I almost certainly will die, but it's nice for now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 20, 2014, 11:38:38 am
Eevee is the SK. I put him in jail - you're welcome - and that stopped kills. there's your explanation. why did it stop 2 kills? well, I don't know, maybe scum thought he was a good option for a safe kill. Maybe mafia did recruit the traitor, in that case Ichi is lying. maybe the traitor blocked the kill.

Well, traitor could not have blocked the kill, because Traitor had to have Roleblocked Joth.

Unless SK!Eevee chose to commute.

Any scenario has to explain both no kill last night AND conftown!Joth receiving "No Result".

ANyone want to figure what would have happened if Eevee tried to commute and silver tried to jail him?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 11:43:04 am
Eevee is the SK. I put him in jail - you're welcome - and that stopped kills. there's your explanation. why did it stop 2 kills? well, I don't know, maybe scum thought he was a good option for a safe kill. Maybe mafia did recruit the traitor, in that case Ichi is lying. maybe the traitor blocked the kill.

Well, traitor could not have blocked the kill, because Traitor had to have Roleblocked Joth.

Unless SK!Eevee chose to commute.

Any scenario has to explain both no kill last night AND conftown!Joth receiving "No Result".

ANyone want to figure what would have happened if Eevee tried to commute and silver tried to jail him?

Well, Eevee has to be SK, and here Silver is telling the truth.  So

7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer

Ich is scum, and Traitor knows Mafia.  So Traitor did not RB Mafia.. why no Mafia kill?  Maybe Mafia shoots traitor on accident.  Maybe Jimm was target and commuted.  Maybe Mafia tried to shoot Eevee.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 11:43:50 am
Quote
But why would scum shoot Eevee?  Instead of more obvious town choices.. me, Joth, even Ichi if he's telling the truth.

well, the obvious explanation would be that they were afraid of me "doctoring" any of you.

No one had claimed yet, though, except Ichi.  Would they even know JK is in the setup?

that's an interesting question. let's say that Eevee is scum and the SK targeted him

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer

these are the setups with a SK, so that's 2/3. If they beleive the Ichi claim, #1 is impossible, so they know that a JK is in the setup.

Now let's say Eevee is the SK, Scum targeted him, and Ichi is telling the truth -> Mafia knows Traitor

4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

here we got 50%

and now let's say Eevee is the SK, Scum targeted him, and Jimmmm is telling the truth -> Mafia doesn't know the Traitor.

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

here we also got 50%

PPE3
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 20, 2014, 11:55:08 am
Wait, opinions on this:

Ok, another point to consider. We have 8 surviving townies -- 4 claimed PRs and 4 claimed VTs. If there's no SK, we know there's one scum in each group.

BUT if there's a serial killer, we know that there are two scum in the VT group. Given that, lynching a VT gives us a 50/50 shot at scum, even not taking into account the evidence. If we lynch Eevee, the scummiest VT in the scenario where there is an SK, I just really like our chances, plus then scum has to leave alive either me or silver, which is quite helpful.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 11:59:12 am
How about worst-case analysis if Eevee ends up town? 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 12:13:18 pm
How about worst-case analysis if Eevee ends up town?
We still don't really know anything, and lose.  :\
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 20, 2014, 12:17:30 pm
How about worst-case analysis if Eevee ends up town?
We still don't really know anything, and lose.  :\

We won't lose with one mislynch.  Is it really true that we won't know anything more?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 12:19:19 pm
How about worst-case analysis if Eevee ends up town?
We still don't really know anything, and lose.  :\

We won't lose with one mislynch.  Is it really true that we won't know anything more?
I don't know. I've been trying to find a scenario I find plausible that fits the claims and my role pm, but they all seem so far-fetched. I'm notoriously bad with setup stuff though.

My brain of course wants to believe silver is lying because his claims sound so unbelievable to me (there being a SK, and me being jailed causing us to somehow miss two kills).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 12:19:53 pm
How about worst-case analysis if Eevee ends up town?
We still don't really know anything, and lose.  :\

We won't lose with one mislynch.  Is it really true that we won't know anything more?
If there was something to know, I should know it already. I'm not arguing any specific scenario because I don't have a clue.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 20, 2014, 01:12:11 pm
if eevee fips town, you basically have to assume that I'm scum or SK, because the scenario with JK!me and town!Eevee is so unlikely, which  means you'll lynch me, which means we just lose horrifically.

which is okay, it's only a 5% chance
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 01:15:39 pm

which is sad and depressing, it's a 100% chance
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 20, 2014, 05:22:37 pm
Vote Count 3.2
 
Eevee (1): silverspawn
silverspawn (3): Eevee, Jimmmmm, faust

Not Voting (4): Ichimaru, ashersky, jotheonah, witherweaver

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.  The deadline for Day 3 will be Friday, October 27 at 5 pm forum time.

e, if someone targeted a jailkept player with an investigative action, would they get a result?

Results will be given according to the rules laid out by yuma. (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11779.msg419608#msg419608)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 20, 2014, 08:35:45 pm
To joth's question, commuting happens first, the Jailkeeper would fail.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 20, 2014, 08:36:13 pm
I skimmed, need tore read at computer.  Will do in an hour or so.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 20, 2014, 10:13:16 pm
Here's what I'm thinking.

Ichi was the first person to actually claim a PR. If he is scum, then the add on is Traitor Knows Mafia/SK.
If this is the case, then it's reasonable to assume that Ichi is the Traitor, since he would then have the most information and be in the best position to make a logical claim.
If Ichi was the Traitor, then he would know that we have either Column 3 or Row 3.
If we have Column 3, Psychologist is a believable claim since from a Neutral point of view with the other claims, we could have Row 4.
But if we have Row 3, there is in fact no logical fake claim, and a Psychologist claim would quickly be found out against the three real claims.

If he was instead the SK, he would know we have either Column 2, Column 3 or Row 1. This would make Psychologist a reasonable claim for scum trying to mess up ICs, but not so good for a SK trying to stay alive.

So if Ichi is scum then he didn't have enough information to know that his claim wouldn't immediately be caught out.

If, on the other hand, silver is scum and knew that the Mafia knew the Traitor, then he'd know we have either Row 4 or Column 2, neither of which would immediately out a fakeclaimed JK.

In summary, Ichi didn't have enough information to make a safe (at least safe enough to not be immediately outed) fakeclaim, while silver did.

Vote: silverspawn

Catching up and will reply to some as I go.  I like this type of thinking.  I think we have to do it from each claimant's point of view, as such:

1.  Claimant is Mafia Goon -- would/could they fakeclaim what they did at the time they did?
2.  Claimant is Mafia Traitor -- would/could they fakeclaim what they did at the time they did?
3.  Claimaint is SK -- would/could they fakeclaim what they did at the time they did?

The possible answers to these three scenarios should shed some light.  Jimmmmm did this above for Ichi mostly.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 20, 2014, 10:15:12 pm
So, we have the following:

1.  Ichimaru Gin claims Psychologist.  This is the first claim of the game (not counting silver's VT fakeclaim).
2.  Jotheonah claims non-BP PR.
3.  Jimmmmm claims non-BP PR.
4.  Silverspawn claims non-BP PR, admitting to having lied in the beginning.
5.  Silverspawn claims Jailkeeper.
6.  Jimmmmm claims 1-Shot Commuter.
7.  Jotheonah claims Detective.

That's the order of actions, so we can assume that at least the steps before each claim could inform each claim.  From there, we need to do some breakdowns.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 20, 2014, 10:27:20 pm
Ichimaru Gin's Psychologist claim

All analysis is done with the assumption that the claim is a lie.  We are trying to find sensibility in the choice of fake claim.  We will do this for all four claimants.

Assumption #1: a fakeclaim would be for survival, not drawing out a counterclaim.
Assumption #2: therefore, a fakeclaim would be a role that could not be counterclaimed.

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

The green setups are ones in which a Psychologist exists.  We have to assume that Ichimaru Gin knew the game we are playing is NOT one of these.  All "Mafia Knows Traitor (MKT)" setups are in green.  In #3 and #7, "Traitor Knows Mafia (TKM)."

If Ichimaru Gin is mafia, and he decided to fakeclaim Psychologist, it appears most sensible that he would do this as a Traitor in a TKM setup, because in all cases, he knows Psychologist is a safeclaim.  As a Mafia Goon in a MTK setup, there is a 100% chance that a real Psychologist is in the game, so he doesn't fakeclaim Psychologist.  As a Mafia Goon that does NOT know the Traitor, that's six possible setups, with him knowing he's in a set of two {1 or 8}, {2 or 5}, or {3 or 7}.  If he's in the third set, he knows Psychologist is a safeclaim; in the other two sets, it's a 50% chance, so there are better choices.  If he's a Traitor who does NOT know Mafia, he is basically playing blind, as he has no setup information.  In that case, VT has to be the safest claim.

If Ichimaru Gin is a Serial Killer, he knows the setup is one of {1, 4, 6, 8}.  That's a 75% chance a Psychologist exists.

So, if Ichimaru Gin is...

a Mafia Goon in an MTK setup -- he does NOT fakeclaim Psychologist
a Mafia Goon in an non-MTK setup -- he has only a 33% chance of being in a setup where Psychologist is a safe fakeclaim
a Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup -- Psychologist is a safe fakeclaim
a Mafia Taritor in a non-TKM setup -- he would have to claim VT
a Serial Killer -- he has only a 25% chance of being in a setup where Psychologist is a safe fakeclaim

Based on this, I believe there is only one scenario where Ichimaru Gin fakeclaims Psychologist, and that is as the Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup.

Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 20, 2014, 10:46:16 pm
Silverspawn's Jailkeeper claim

All analysis is done with the assumption that the claim is a lie.  We are trying to find sensibility in the choice of fake claim.  We will do this for all four claimants.

Assumption #1: a fakeclaim would be for short-term survival by being more believable than others.
Assumption #2: therefore, a fakeclaim would be a role that could not be counterclaimed, but instead more likely.
Assumption #3: Ichimaru Gin's claim is real if Silverspawn's is fake.

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

The green setups are ones in which a Psychologist exists.  Bolded setups are the ones in which a Jailkeeper exists.  The strikethrough setups are not viable for fakeclaimers, as everyone claimed not BP.  We have to assume that Silverspawn realizes that only of these four setups is real.  If he is a Mafia Goon, he knows if it is 2 or 4 based on power, or one of 4/6 if not.  If he is a Serial Killer, he knows it is 6.

Jailkeeper is a 50% safeclaim if Ichimaru Gin is believed (2 out of 4 possible )and a 50% safeclaim is Ichimaru Gin is disbelieved (1 out of 2 possible).

If Silverspawn is mafia, and he decided to fakeclaim Jailkeeper, it needs to be in a setup without a Jailkeeper.  That leaves #1 or #5 if pushing Ichi as a liar and #4 or #8 if supporting Ichi.  1, 5, and 8 are setups where the Mafia Goons do not know the Traitor.  4 is an MKT setup.

If Silverspawn is a Serial Killer, he knows the setup is one of {1, 6, 7}.  That's a 66.6% chance a Jailkeeper exists while knowing there's a 33.3% chance Ichimaru is telling the truth.

So, if Silverspawn is...

a Mafia Goon in an MKT setup -- 50% chance of being caught (setup #6).  He also knows Ichi is not the Traitor, and 100% believes the claim.  Not viable.
a Mafia Goon in an non-MKT setup -- 50% chance of being caught (setup #8).  #5 is out due to BP.  Unlikely.
a Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup -- 100% chance of being counterclaimed.
a Mafia Traitor in a non-TKM setup -- he would have to claim VT
a Serial Killer -- he has only a 33.3% chance of being in a setup where Jailkeeper is a safe fakeclaim

Based on this, I believe the only way Silverspawn fakeclaims Jailkeeper is to try and out the real Jailkeeper (which didn't happen).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 20, 2014, 10:47:20 pm
I messed up SK numbers, fixed here.  Doesn't change my conclusion.


Ichimaru Gin's Psychologist claim

All analysis is done with the assumption that the claim is a lie.  We are trying to find sensibility in the choice of fake claim.  We will do this for all four claimants.

Assumption #1: a fakeclaim would be for survival, not drawing out a counterclaim.
Assumption #2: therefore, a fakeclaim would be a role that could not be counterclaimed.

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

The green setups are ones in which a Psychologist exists.  We have to assume that Ichimaru Gin knew the game we are playing is NOT one of these.  All "Mafia Knows Traitor (MKT)" setups are in green.  In #3 and #7, "Traitor Knows Mafia (TKM)."

If Ichimaru Gin is mafia, and he decided to fakeclaim Psychologist, it appears most sensible that he would do this as a Traitor in a TKM setup, because in all cases, he knows Psychologist is a safeclaim.  As a Mafia Goon in a MTK setup, there is a 100% chance that a real Psychologist is in the game, so he doesn't fakeclaim Psychologist.  As a Mafia Goon that does NOT know the Traitor, that's six possible setups, with him knowing he's in a set of two {1 or 8}, {2 or 5}, or {3 or 7}.  If he's in the third set, he knows Psychologist is a safeclaim; in the other two sets, it's a 50% chance, so there are better choices.  If he's a Traitor who does NOT know Mafia, he is basically playing blind, as he has no setup information.  In that case, VT has to be the safest claim.

If Ichimaru Gin is a Serial Killer, he knows the setup is one of {1, 6, 7}.  That's a 33.3% chance a Psychologist exists.

So, if Ichimaru Gin is...

a Mafia Goon in an MTK setup -- he does NOT fakeclaim Psychologist
a Mafia Goon in an non-MTK setup -- he has only a 33% chance of being in a setup where Psychologist is a safe fakeclaim
a Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup -- Psychologist is a safe fakeclaim
a Mafia Taritor in a non-TKM setup -- he would have to claim VT
a Serial Killer -- he has a 66.6% chance of being in a setup where Psychologist is a safe fakeclaim

Based on this, I believe there is only one scenario where Ichimaru Gin fakeclaims Psychologist, and that is as the Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 20, 2014, 11:07:44 pm
Jimmmmm's 1-Shot Commuter claim

All analysis is done with the assumption that the claim is a lie.  We are trying to find sensibility in the choice of fake claim.  We will do this for all four claimants.

Assumption #1: a fakeclaim would be for short-term survival by being more believable than others.
Assumption #2: therefore, a fakeclaim would be a role that could not be counterclaimed, but instead more likely.
Assumption #3: one of Ichimaru Gin's or Silverspawn's claim is real; the other is fake.

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

The green setups are ones in which a Psychologist exists.  Bolded setups are the ones in which a Jailkeeper exists.  The strikethrough setups are not viable for fakeclaimers, as everyone claimed not BP.  The underlined setups are ones in which a Commuter exists.  Assumptions get harder now. If he is fakeclaiming, he has to know or feel safe that setups #1, 4, and 7 are not it.  #5 is out for BP reasons.

If Jimmmmm is a Mafia Goon in a MKT setup, he knows Ichimaru is telling the truth.  So if Silverspawn is the Traitor, Jimmmm knows that Setup #4 is the one we are playing, since Ichi would be telling the truth and Silverspawn is lying.  Jimmmm claiming 1-Shot Commuter would be actively playing against his Traitor.

If Jimmmmm is a Mafia Goon who doesn't know the Traitor, he does not know if one or both previous claims are true.  He knows #4 is out since he doesn't know the Traitor, #1 is out because both Ichi and Silver cannot be lying, leaving #7 as a possibility if Ichi is the liar.

If Jimmmmm is the Mafia Traitor who knows Mafia, he knows Ichimaru is his lying partner.  The 1-Shot Commuter claim helps Ichi and hurts Silver.  And yet there's still a 50% chance he's counterclaimed, unless he caught joth's breadcrumb and new that Detective was the last claim to be made.

If Jimmmmm is a Serial Killer, he knows the setup is one of {1, 6, 7}.  That's a 33.3% chance a real Commuter exists while knowing it's possible both previously claimants are telling the truth (#7).  If he thinks they are both telling the truth, he needs to claim Watcher or Detective.

So, if Jimmmm is...

a Mafia Goon in an MKT setup -- He would fakeclaim Commuter to counter his known Traitor.  Not sensible.
a Mafia Goon in an non-MKT setup -- he has a 33.3% chance of being caught dependent on setup.
a Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup -- 50% chance of being counterclaimed, but supports his Mafia partner.  Could have known it was safe from breadcrumb.
a Mafia Traitor in a non-TKM setup -- he would have to claim VT
a Serial Killer -- he has only a 33.3% chance of being in a setup where a commuter exists, but had easier and safer fakeclaims by this time

Based on this, I believe the only way Jimmmmm fakeclaims Commuter is as a Traitor trying to help his known Goon partner Ichimaru at great risk.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 20, 2014, 11:17:16 pm
I was going to do Joth's Detective claim, and I still might, but it just seems so incredibly unlikely that it's a lie unless he's supporting another fake claim...

If it's Setup #1, both Ichi and Silver are lying.
If it's Setup #4, Silver is lying.
If it's Setup #6, Jimmmmm is lying.
If it's Setup #7, Ichi is lying.

Ichi and Silver get 50% chance of lying, Jimmmm gets 25%.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 20, 2014, 11:20:25 pm
I was going to do Joth's Detective claim, and I still might, but it just seems so incredibly unlikely that it's a lie unless he's supporting another fake claim...

If it's Setup #1, both Ichi and Silver are lying.
If it's Setup #4, Silver is lying.
If it's Setup #6, Jimmmmm is lying.
If it's Setup #7, Ichi is lying.

Ichi and Silver get 50% chance of lying, Jimmmm gets 25%.

I'll note that if it's Setup #1, the Goon Cop hasn't claimed, and that's ludicrious.

So really, 33.3% chance for each of them.

But then, if Jimmmmm is lying, so is Ichi, and we're missing claims.

So to me, it's 50% Ichi or Silver.

And based on my analysis, Ichi's the Traitor fakeclaiming or Silver was trying to out the real JK who doesn't exist.

vote: ichimaru gin
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 20, 2014, 11:38:44 pm
Wow, ashersky, that was really really helpful!

Vote: IG This makes more sense than silver, because at least with silver being truthful we have some explanation for the missing kills. It's not the likeliest explanation, but it's pretty clear something unlikely has happened at this point.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 20, 2014, 11:45:27 pm
Wow, ashersky, that was really really helpful!

Vote: IG This makes more sense than silver, because at least with silver being truthful we have some explanation for the missing kills. It's not the likeliest explanation, but it's pretty clear something unlikely has happened at this point.
Interesting post.

I appreciate Ashersky's analysis and the conclusion that he comes to which is it is either me or silver who is lying. Unfortunately, he has decided that it would be better to lynch someone who has gotten unfair suspicion this entire game and nearly mislynched by scum multiple times, over a known liar (in the context of this game) who is going to get away with one of the biggest scum plays I've ever seen.
Not too sure if there's a ton I can do to avert this. I've made my claim and done my best to offer town what information and reads I have. Eevee is of course going to join my wagon to save himself.
I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 12:00:08 am
Wow, ashersky, that was really really helpful!

Vote: IG This makes more sense than silver, because at least with silver being truthful we have some explanation for the missing kills. It's not the likeliest explanation, but it's pretty clear something unlikely has happened at this point.
Interesting post.

I appreciate Ashersky's analysis and the conclusion that he comes to which is it is either me or silver who is lying. Unfortunately, he has decided that it would be better to lynch someone who has gotten unfair suspicion this entire game and nearly mislynched by scum multiple times, over a known liar (in the context of this game) who is going to get away with one of the biggest scum plays I've ever seen.
Not too sure if there's a ton I can do to avert this. I've made my claim and done my best to offer town what information and reads I have. Eevee is of course going to join my wagon to save himself.
I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?

I get your point, and I really do not like the fact that silverspawn lied, but in the end, your claim is the only one that makes sense as fake.

As for partners, given I think you are the Traitor, Eevee is most likely Hydrad's partner.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 21, 2014, 01:21:00 am
ash, that's a big wall of posts for a very wrong conclusion.

Based on this, I believe there is only one scenario where Ichimaru Gin fakeclaims Psychologist, and that is as the Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup.

False.

If Ichi was a Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup, he knew that the Town PRs are either Commuter, JK and Detective (Column 3) or BP, JK and Bodyguard (Row 3). In the case of Column 3, which we now know is the real one if Ichi is lying, then he's fine, Psychologist is a safe claim.

But in the case of Row 3, Psychologist would be an absolutely disastrous claim. The four claims would then be BP, JK, Bodyguard and Psychologist, and there are no possible setups which have a Psychologist and two of the others - the only possible setup with these four claims is Row 3, which excludes Psychologist.

So a Traitor in TKM would absolutely not claim Psychologist without more information about what other roles are present.

ash arguing otherwise is extremely scummy.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 04:27:45 am
ash, that's a big wall of posts for a very wrong conclusion.

Based on this, I believe there is only one scenario where Ichimaru Gin fakeclaims Psychologist, and that is as the Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup.

False.

If Ichi was a Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup, he knew that the Town PRs are either Commuter, JK and Detective (Column 3) or BP, JK and Bodyguard (Row 3). In the case of Column 3, which we now know is the real one if Ichi is lying, then he's fine, Psychologist is a safe claim.

But in the case of Row 3, Psychologist would be an absolutely disastrous claim. The four claims would then be BP, JK, Bodyguard and Psychologist, and there are no possible setups which have a Psychologist and two of the others - the only possible setup with these four claims is Row 3, which excludes Psychologist.

So a Traitor in TKM would absolutely not claim Psychologist without more information about what other roles are present.

ash arguing otherwise is extremely scummy.

I truly don't understand what you are talking about.

There are two possible setups with TKM, and neither have a psychologist in it.  Do in either case, it is a safe claim because he can't be counter claimed.  In no other case was it sensible to fake claim psychologist.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 04:31:36 am
Are you trying to argue that Ichi is being truthful (I.e., you believe him)?

I'm arguing that the only way he fake claims is if he is the Traitor in TKM, and in no other case is it a sensible possibility.

I did the same for you and silver, trying to figure out reasons TO fake claim.  There were very few.  But someone is lying.  Of the few possible reasons, Ichi's is most likely.

If you have a strong argument for it bring you, silver, or joth, please lay it out.  But I couldn't find great reasoning based on timing.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 04:33:33 am
And I know you think silver claimed because three ICs suck.  That's a valid point, as is the "he lied" argument.

But the actual claim he made sucks as a fake claim because it would only serve to out the real JK, which didn't happen.  It otherwise was stupid because it relied on you or joth being a watcher, which he couldn't know.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 04:39:44 am
You could argue it is setup 4 and silver is mafia goon in a MKT.  But that's a 50% chance it's setup 6 and he's screwed, unless he knows Ichi is the lying traitor, but then where's the bodyguard?

There was a chance Ichi gets caught out by his claim, but if he's the traitor, he knows he won't be counter claimed and that he's safe until there's a mass claim.  He claimed to survive while everyone else claimed in a plan.  He had to take the risk.

That's my argument.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 21, 2014, 04:51:46 am
One additional strike against Ichi is that when a PR gets suspected, they usually feel even more insulted and often search vindication by claiming even when it's not a good idea. If IG was truthful, he kept his head cool regarding to claiming exceptionally well when he was under scrutiny and nearly lynched both day 1 and day 2.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 05:38:32 am
Wow, ashersky, that was really really helpful!

Yes. That was very good. And unlike Jimmm's posts, every step is easily followable here. You definitely aren't anti town now.

This doesn't change what I think about Eevee, but it does make me believe that there's a high chance Ichi is the traitor.

I've heard people saying that you're great with setups before, but this is the first time I see you do something like this.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 05:53:43 am
I think I see where jimmmmm is coming from now on his logic.

His argument is that if Ichi is the traitor, he knew all possible combinations of PRs.  Therefore, when choosing which fake claim to make, he could look at what roles don't exist and cross check them against viable combinations with the real PRs.  And so, he had a 50/50 chance of being caught out when the mass claim happened.

As it turned out, his role is viable within the claims.

I think two things in response: 1) as mentioned, he had to take a risk -- was there even a safer claim to make?, and 2) I don't think Ichi thought it through to that level (no offense).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 05:58:17 am
To follow on, Ichi, as traitor, has 3 safe claims: psych, goon cop, bodyguard.

I don't see any of those three being "safe" in the sense Jimmmmm is arguing.  In all cases, depending on which setup we are in, he gets caught 50% of the time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 06:00:34 am
okay, let me try to follow Jimmm's quote anyway.

obligatory setup:
Row1      Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
Row2      Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
Row3      1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia

Row4      1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
Column1  Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
Column2  Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
Column3  1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer

Column4  Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

Quote
If Ichi was a Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup, he knew that the Town PRs are either Commuter, JK and Detective (Column 3) or BP, JK and Bodyguard (Row 3).
that's right

Quote
In the case of Column 3, which we now know is the real one if Ichi is lying, then he's fine, Psychologist is a safe claim.
yes

Quote
But in the case of Row 3, [...] The four claims would then be BP, JK, Bodyguard and Psychologist, and there are no possible setups which have a Psychologist and two of the others - the only possible setup with these four claims is Row 3, which excludes Psychologist.
that's right too.

Quote
So a Traitor in TKM would absolutely not claim Psychologist without more information about what other roles are present.
So, the argument here is that, although he does not immediately get counterclaimed, his claim is still not good because it requires two of the other claimers to be false in order to be true. The other claims only require one claim to be false - the psychologist claim. Then they are in Row3. So, upon analyzing it, we would come to the conclusion that his claim is false, and lynch him, which means he really only had 50% safeclaim chance, not 100%.

That seems to be true, but I honestly doubt how relevant it is. I think whoever fakeclaimed analyzed his probability, like ash did, but I doubt that he thought this far. Maybe he did. This point is not completely irrelevant.

But it is a pain to follow, because you explain so little. that's why I refused to dig into your setup posts before.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 06:04:42 am
We also knew this before, differently, since we tested for BP Townie before the full claim.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 06:07:01 am
okay, it seems like ash and I are thinking the same thing here

I'd like to add one more thing though - the fact that Jimmmm is even making this argument indicates heavily that he is town.  The decision whom to lynch was basically between Jimmmm and Ichi. Ash's post was saying that we should lynch Ichi. So why should scum!Jimmmm make a case for the opposing argument? Of course, even for town!Jimmmm, it might be smarter not to make make his last post, but it's more believable for town I think.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 06:08:28 am
yea and the traitor is a much better target than the goon anyway.

vote: IG
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 06:09:27 am
that's L-2. Let's not accidentally derphammer during all of this setup talk.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 06:10:49 am
We also knew this before, differently, since we tested for BP Townie before the full claim.
uh... what? Ichi claimed before we asked for BP's. I don't get what you mean here.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 06:14:14 am
I appreciate Ashersky's analysis and the conclusion that he comes to which is it is either me or silver who is lying. Unfortunately, he has decided that it would be better to lynch someone who has gotten unfair suspicion this entire game and nearly mislynched by scum multiple times, over a known liar (in the context of this game) who is going to get away with one of the biggest scum plays I've ever seen.
Not too sure if there's a ton I can do to avert this. I've made my claim and done my best to offer town what information and reads I have. Eevee is of course going to join my wagon to save himself.
I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?

Oh man, suck it up. I made a strategic decision to fake a non-PR. This argument is not even good if you accept that it's policy. If you can't handle this kind of thing, don't play mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 21, 2014, 07:43:25 am
ash, that's a big wall of posts for a very wrong conclusion.

Based on this, I believe there is only one scenario where Ichimaru Gin fakeclaims Psychologist, and that is as the Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup.

False.

If Ichi was a Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup, he knew that the Town PRs are either Commuter, JK and Detective (Column 3) or BP, JK and Bodyguard (Row 3). In the case of Column 3, which we now know is the real one if Ichi is lying, then he's fine, Psychologist is a safe claim.

But in the case of Row 3, Psychologist would be an absolutely disastrous claim. The four claims would then be BP, JK, Bodyguard and Psychologist, and there are no possible setups which have a Psychologist and two of the others - the only possible setup with these four claims is Row 3, which excludes Psychologist.

So a Traitor in TKM would absolutely not claim Psychologist without more information about what other roles are present.

ash arguing otherwise is extremely scummy.

I truly don't understand what you are talking about.

There are two possible setups with TKM, and neither have a psychologist in it.  Do in either case, it is a safe claim because he can't be counter claimed.  In no other case was it sensible to fake claim psychologist.

Dude. Four people claim. They claim:

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Psychologist.

Have a look at the possible setups and tell me how many include 3 of these and what the odd one out is.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 21, 2014, 07:47:30 am
I don't see any of those three being "safe" in the sense Jimmmmm is arguing.  In all cases, depending on which setup we are in, he gets caught 50% of the time.

50% is safe in the sense that you get a chance to argue against the other person as opposed to being caught 100% of the time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 21, 2014, 07:50:25 am
I uh... don't feel too good about ash's analysis. For one, it ignores the fact that silver came out saying: "I'm a PR, and I want to claim last". The whole argument is based on the theory that silver chose to fakeclaim JK and claimed PR after that, as opposed to the other way round (which I think is more likely).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 21, 2014, 07:52:36 am
Also, don't feel good about Eevee. If silver tells the truth, Eevee is likely scum (probably mafia goon). He is now eagerly jumping the Ichi wagon, who would - by analysis - be his partner. This is basically a game-losing move if this is the scum team.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 21, 2014, 07:58:32 am
I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?

The question here is actually quite interesting, really. People on the Ichi wagon, who do you think his partner is? Do you think it's Eevee? Because that makes no sense to me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 21, 2014, 07:58:39 am
Also, don't feel good about Eevee. If silver tells the truth, Eevee is likely scum (probably mafia goon). He is now eagerly jumping the Ichi wagon, who would - by analysis - be his partner. This is basically a game-losing move if this is the scum team.
Why does that make you feel bad about me?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 21, 2014, 07:59:06 am
I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?

The question here is actually quite interesting, really. People on the Ichi wagon, who do you think his partner is? Do you think it's Eevee? Because that makes no sense to me.
You. I think IG's partner is most likely to be you.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 21, 2014, 07:59:38 am
Also, don't feel good about Eevee. If silver tells the truth, Eevee is likely scum (probably mafia goon). He is now eagerly jumping the Ichi wagon, who would - by analysis - be his partner. This is basically a game-losing move if this is the scum team.
Why does that make you feel bad about me?

Eh, I think I started this post with a different thought in mind.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 21, 2014, 08:00:28 am
I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?

The question here is actually quite interesting, really. People on the Ichi wagon, who do you think his partner is? Do you think it's Eevee? Because that makes no sense to me.
You. I think IG's partner is most likely to be you.

Of course, that's the easy way out.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 21, 2014, 08:02:55 am
Vote Count 3.3
 
silverspawn (2): Jimmmmm, faust
Ichimaru Gin (3): ashersky, Eevee, silverspawn

Not Voting (3): Ichimaru Gin, jotheonah, witherweaver

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.  The deadline for Day 3 will be Friday, October 27 at 5 pm forum time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start
Post by: faust on October 21, 2014, 08:04:02 am
Vote Count 3.3
 
silverspawn (2): Jimmmmm, faust
Ichimaru Gin (3): ashersky, Eevee, silverspawn

Not Voting (3): Ichimaru Gin, jotheonah, witherweaver

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.  The deadline for Day 3 will be Friday, October 27 at 5 pm forum time.

October 27 is not a Friday.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 21, 2014, 08:06:19 am
The deadline is Monday, October 27.  Sorry about that.  Will correct for future vote counts.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 08:35:58 am
I think Eevee is scum, and that he's fine with the lynch of his partner. he's in a bad spot, doing this might save him.

but even if you don't like ash's analysis, you can't really deny that the points he is making is valid. i mean, it's not really a matter of opinion.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 08:36:50 am
acutally wait, does eevee even know that it is his partner if he is the goon? i think traitor knew mafia, not the other way. then it doesn't even matter.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 08:37:43 am
Quote
Based on this, I believe there is only one scenario where Ichimaru Gin fakeclaims Psychologist, and that is as the Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup.

yea. eevee can just go on the wagon and hope that ash is wrong. he doesn't know more than we do.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 09:21:16 am
I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?

The question here is actually quite interesting, really. People on the Ichi wagon, who do you think his partner is? Do you think it's Eevee? Because that makes no sense to me.

If Ichi is scum, he's very likely the Traitor.  So he didn't have a "partner"; Hydrad did. 

Why doesn't Eevee/Hydrad + Ichi make sense?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 21, 2014, 09:25:07 am
I don't understand why we are lynching from the PR pool. Let me lay out my reasoning again.

1) Even in the no SK scenario, the VT pool and the PR pool have one scum each, so neither is inherently better.
2) In the SK scenario, the VT pool is twice as likely to hit scum
3) While there's a lack of consensus on whether Ichi or Silver is scum in the PR pool, there seems to be pretty good agreement that Eevee is the partner (or the SK).
4) A PR mislynch here kills a PR, a VT mislynch kills a VT. Obviously the latter is preferable.

So it seems to me there are 4 good reasons to lynch Eevee and no good reasons (except I suppose information) to lynch a PR claim. Yet everyone is voting Ichi. Why?

vote: Eevee
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 09:31:09 am
To Jimmmmm:

Ichi claimed at L-1 (right?) on Day 2.  He could likely have been the lynch.  Now

Quote
But in the case of Row 3, [...] The four claims would then be BP, JK, Bodyguard and Psychologist, and there are no possible setups which have a Psychologist and two of the others - the only possible setup with these four claims is Row 3, which excludes Psychologist.

This is true, but it requires some thinking about the setup.  Is it possible he just looked at all the PR's that weren't on Row 3 U Column 3, that is, {Watcher, Goon Cop, Psychologist}, and picked one?  Out of these three, psychologist has the advantage that he doesn't really need to "clear" people; it's not as accountable.  He gets "can't kill" and the turn up Mafia or SK, well, maybe they had already killed.

I think your argument requires optimal play.  Honestly, if I was coming up with a fake claim, there's a good chance I might not choose carefully enough.

From you it's certainly Silver vs. Ichi.  Your argument implies Ichi couldn't have claimed what he did as scum, so it has to be Silver.  Is there another reason you think it's Silver (besides the opportunistic fear of having 3 IC's)?

For the rest of us, we have no reason to believe Jimmmm is confirmed, right?

If it isn't clear, I'm operating under the assumption that all town PR's have claimed, so there aren't two liars in the set of four claimers. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 09:32:08 am
I don't understand why we are lynching from the PR pool. Let me lay out my reasoning again.

1) Even in the no SK scenario, the VT pool and the PR pool have one scum each, so neither is inherently better.
2) In the SK scenario, the VT pool is twice as likely to hit scum
3) While there's a lack of consensus on whether Ichi or Silver is scum in the PR pool, there seems to be pretty good agreement that Eevee is the partner (or the SK).
4) A PR mislynch here kills a PR, a VT mislynch kills a VT. Obviously the latter is preferable.

So it seems to me there are 4 good reasons to lynch Eevee and no good reasons (except I suppose information) to lynch a PR claim. Yet everyone is voting Ichi. Why?

vote: Eevee

Well, I believe that if Ichi is scum, he's a Roleblocker.  So there's that.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 21, 2014, 10:41:36 am
I think Eevee is scum, and that he's fine with the lynch of his partner. he's in a bad spot, doing this might save him.

but even if you don't like ash's analysis, you can't really deny that the points he is making is valid. i mean, it's not really a matter of opinion.

No, Eevee lynching his partner here is a losing move. We lynch the Traitor, you block Eevee, we lynch Eevee, game over. Thinking that you wouldn't block him is pretty ridiculous. I don't believe in the Ichi/Eevee scum team.

I think he's right about the fact that Jimmmmmm is town. But I'm not seeing the argument for Ichi over you. Jimmmmm has pointed out why Traitor!Ichi claiming there doesn't make sense. Now one can say he didn't think it through, but by the same token, one can say you are scum and didn't think it through.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 21, 2014, 10:42:02 am
when I flip VT, you don't know anything new and you still have to pick from the claimants.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 21, 2014, 10:42:42 am
I obviously dont mind being jailkept.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 21, 2014, 10:43:27 am
acutally wait, does eevee even know that it is his partner if he is the goon? i think traitor knew mafia, not the other way. then it doesn't even matter.

Eevee would know which setup we're in, right? (At least up to SK/no SK) I didn't go through it, but I think a mafia Goon should be able to find out who the fake claimant is.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 10:44:21 am
I think Eevee is scum, and that he's fine with the lynch of his partner. he's in a bad spot, doing this might save him.

but even if you don't like ash's analysis, you can't really deny that the points he is making is valid. i mean, it's not really a matter of opinion.

No, Eevee lynching his partner here is a losing move. We lynch the Traitor, you block Eevee, we lynch Eevee, game over. Thinking that you wouldn't block him is pretty ridiculous. I don't believe in the Ichi/Eevee scum team.

I think he's right about the fact that Jimmmmmm is town. But I'm not seeing the argument for Ichi over you. Jimmmmm has pointed out why Traitor!Ichi claiming there doesn't make sense. Now one can say he didn't think it through, but by the same token, one can say you are scum and didn't think it through.

Does Eevee know Ichi is his partner?  He doesn't know more than we do in this scenario, correct?

PPE: Okay, you addressed that question.. I have to check, but I think he may not.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 21, 2014, 10:44:43 am
I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?

The question here is actually quite interesting, really. People on the Ichi wagon, who do you think his partner is? Do you think it's Eevee? Because that makes no sense to me.

If Ichi is scum, he's very likely the Traitor.  So he didn't have a "partner"; Hydrad did. 

Why doesn't Eevee/Hydrad + Ichi make sense?

But Traitor knows mafia in that scenario, no?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 21, 2014, 10:45:41 am
I think Eevee is scum, and that he's fine with the lynch of his partner. he's in a bad spot, doing this might save him.

but even if you don't like ash's analysis, you can't really deny that the points he is making is valid. i mean, it's not really a matter of opinion.

No, Eevee lynching his partner here is a losing move. We lynch the Traitor, you block Eevee, we lynch Eevee, game over. Thinking that you wouldn't block him is pretty ridiculous. I don't believe in the Ichi/Eevee scum team.

I think he's right about the fact that Jimmmmmm is town. But I'm not seeing the argument for Ichi over you. Jimmmmm has pointed out why Traitor!Ichi claiming there doesn't make sense. Now one can say he didn't think it through, but by the same token, one can say you are scum and didn't think it through.

Look at that. His bus is already working.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 10:47:48 am
I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?

The question here is actually quite interesting, really. People on the Ichi wagon, who do you think his partner is? Do you think it's Eevee? Because that makes no sense to me.

If Ichi is scum, he's very likely the Traitor.  So he didn't have a "partner"; Hydrad did. 

Why doesn't Eevee/Hydrad + Ichi make sense?

But Traitor knows mafia in that scenario, no?

Okay, so you're saying Mafia team of Eevee+Hydrad get no add ons and are both Goons, so they know they must be in a "Traitor Knows Mafia" setup.  They can therefore deduce Ichi must be lying and therefore is the Traitor.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 21, 2014, 10:48:03 am
Well, let's see. If TKM, then mafia has no special powers and thus must know that it's TKM. There are 2 TKM scenarios; 1 includes a 1-shot BP. So the mafia we're in TKM/SK, and knows Ichi is lying. So if you're going for Eevee/Ichi, you'll have to swallow the fact that Eevee is knowingly voting his partner, when a mislynch today is the only way he has a chance to win.

PPE 2
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 21, 2014, 10:48:49 am
Read my posts today, I think you'll deduce I don't know what setup we are in. :D
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 21, 2014, 10:49:52 am
I can make a promise to not move my vote today in any circumstances if it makes you believe me that I really really really want to lynch IG.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 21, 2014, 10:50:12 am
Well, let's see. If TKM, then mafia has no special powers and thus must know that it's TKM. There are 2 TKM scenarios; 1 includes a 1-shot BP. So the mafia we're in TKM/SK, and knows Ichi is lying. So if you're going for Eevee/Ichi, you'll have to swallow the fact that Eevee is knowingly voting his partner, when a mislynch today is the only way he has a chance to win.

PPE 2

I absolutely buy that. Is it a risky bus? Yep. Is it working if it gets you to vote for silver instead of Eevee? Yep. Is Eevee good at mafia? Yep.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 10:50:19 am
Read my posts today, I think you'll deduce I don't know what setup we are in. :D

Wait how do you know?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 21, 2014, 10:50:25 am
Look at that. His bus is already working.

We can still have him jailkept. There is no way he gets out of this, as there is no way (I believe) Eevee gets out of this.

Which of course doesn't mean that Eevee must be town. He could easily be say, silver's partner.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 21, 2014, 10:51:54 am
Well, let's see. If TKM, then mafia has no special powers and thus must know that it's TKM. There are 2 TKM scenarios; 1 includes a 1-shot BP. So the mafia we're in TKM/SK, and knows Ichi is lying. So if you're going for Eevee/Ichi, you'll have to swallow the fact that Eevee is knowingly voting his partner, when a mislynch today is the only way he has a chance to win.

PPE 2

I absolutely buy that. Is it a risky bus? Yep. Is it working if it gets you to vote for silver instead of Eevee? Yep. Is Eevee good at mafia? Yep.

Well... I'm fine with vote: Eevee. I prefer silver, but not sure that's happening.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 10:57:06 am
Well, let's see. If TKM, then mafia has no special powers and thus must know that it's TKM. There are 2 TKM scenarios; 1 includes a 1-shot BP. So the mafia we're in TKM/SK, and knows Ichi is lying. So if you're going for Eevee/Ichi, you'll have to swallow the fact that Eevee is knowingly voting his partner, when a mislynch today is the only way he has a chance to win.

PPE 2

I absolutely buy that. Is it a risky bus? Yep. Is it working if it gets you to vote for silver instead of Eevee? Yep. Is Eevee good at mafia? Yep.

Well... I'm fine with vote: Eevee. I prefer silver, but not sure that's happening.

Look at that. His bus is already working.

We can still have him jailkept. There is no way he gets out of this, as there is no way (I believe) Eevee gets out of this.

Which of course doesn't mean that Eevee must be town. He could easily be say, silver's partner.

Silver/Eevee makes sense?  Silver fake claims to Jailkeep his partner when there's no kill?  And isn't Silver calling for Eevee's lynch?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 10:58:53 am
I was going to do Joth's Detective claim, and I still might, but it just seems so incredibly unlikely that it's a lie unless he's supporting another fake claim...

If it's Setup #1, both Ichi and Silver are lying.
If it's Setup #4, Silver is lying.
If it's Setup #6, Jimmmmm is lying.
If it's Setup #7, Ichi is lying.

Ichi and Silver get 50% chance of lying, Jimmmm gets 25%.

I'll note that if it's Setup #1, the Goon Cop hasn't claimed, and that's ludicrious.

So really, 33.3% chance for each of them.

But then, if Jimmmmm is lying, so is Ichi, and we're missing claims.

So to me, it's 50% Ichi or Silver.

And based on my analysis, Ichi's the Traitor fakeclaiming or Silver was trying to out the real JK who doesn't exist.

vote: ichimaru gin

I am missing this.  Why does Jimmm lying => Ichi lying?  Jimmm lying puts us in a setup where we have Psych, Detective, Jailkeeper, right?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 11:06:00 am
For clarity:

LiarTown PR1Town PR2Town PR3Mafia AddonSK?
Ichimaru (Psychologist)1-Shot CommuterJailkeeperDetectiveTraitor Knows MafiaYes
Silverspawn (Jailkeeper)1-Shot CommuterPsychologistDetectiveTraitor Knows MafiaNo
Jimmmmm (1-Shot Commuter)DetectiveJailkeeperPsychologistMafia Knows TraitorYes
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 11:09:17 am
Well, of interest, the only case where there is NOT an SK is Silverspawn lying.  Silverspawn Roleblocks Joth?  Jailkeeping is part Roleblocking, so maybe it's a sensible fake claim to make.

What claims were outed when Silver claimed Jailkeeper?  Well... Ichi had already claimed Psych.  If Silver is Traitor, he knew what setup we were in on Day 2.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 11:11:49 am
Maybe Eevee is not Silver's partner and Silver was just shot.  Everyone thought he was not Mafia anyway.. the consensus (more or less) was if he was scum, then he was SK.  So we wouldn't be lynching him until after Mafia.  So good night kill target?  Maybe.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 21, 2014, 11:13:56 am
Well, let's see. If TKM, then mafia has no special powers and thus must know that it's TKM. There are 2 TKM scenarios; 1 includes a 1-shot BP. So the mafia we're in TKM/SK, and knows Ichi is lying. So if you're going for Eevee/Ichi, you'll have to swallow the fact that Eevee is knowingly voting his partner, when a mislynch today is the only way he has a chance to win.

PPE 2

I absolutely buy that. Is it a risky bus? Yep. Is it working if it gets you to vote for silver instead of Eevee? Yep. Is Eevee good at mafia? Yep.

Well... I'm fine with vote: Eevee. I prefer silver, but not sure that's happening.

Look at that. His bus is already working.

We can still have him jailkept. There is no way he gets out of this, as there is no way (I believe) Eevee gets out of this.

Which of course doesn't mean that Eevee must be town. He could easily be say, silver's partner.

Silver/Eevee makes sense?  Silver fake claims to Jailkeep his partner when there's no kill?  And isn't Silver calling for Eevee's lynch?

It would be a move to get one of them lynched so that the other one can get lots of towncred. Maybe Goon!Eevee recruited Traitor!silver, and they decided to get something out of the missing nightkill.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 11:15:45 am
Well, let's see. If TKM, then mafia has no special powers and thus must know that it's TKM. There are 2 TKM scenarios; 1 includes a 1-shot BP. So the mafia we're in TKM/SK, and knows Ichi is lying. So if you're going for Eevee/Ichi, you'll have to swallow the fact that Eevee is knowingly voting his partner, when a mislynch today is the only way he has a chance to win.

PPE 2

I absolutely buy that. Is it a risky bus? Yep. Is it working if it gets you to vote for silver instead of Eevee? Yep. Is Eevee good at mafia? Yep.

Well... I'm fine with vote: Eevee. I prefer silver, but not sure that's happening.

Look at that. His bus is already working.

We can still have him jailkept. There is no way he gets out of this, as there is no way (I believe) Eevee gets out of this.

Which of course doesn't mean that Eevee must be town. He could easily be say, silver's partner.

Silver/Eevee makes sense?  Silver fake claims to Jailkeep his partner when there's no kill?  And isn't Silver calling for Eevee's lynch?

It would be a move to get one of them lynched so that the other one can get lots of towncred. Maybe Goon!Eevee recruited Traitor!silver, and they decided to get something out of the missing nightkill.

Umm.. they didn't have time to plan this, right?  Silver wouldn't join Eevee until today started, so they wouldn't have chat to coordinate.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 11:17:02 am
I don't see this holding any more than Ichi/Eevee does.  Actually I think it's less likely.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 21, 2014, 11:18:02 am
Maybe Eevee is not Silver's partner and Silver was just shot.  Everyone thought he was not Mafia anyway.. the consensus (more or less) was if he was scum, then he was SK.  So we wouldn't be lynching him until after Mafia.  So good night kill target?  Maybe.

I didn't really feel a consensus there... I made that argument I remember, but I don't recall it getting much positive resonance. But I guess if that's how you perceived it, mafia could have perceived it like this as well.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 21, 2014, 11:19:56 am
Umm.. they didn't have time to plan this, right?  Silver wouldn't join Eevee until today started, so they wouldn't have chat to coordinate.

Yes, I guess it doesn't quite fit with the timing. It can be bussing even without coordination though. I mean, if they are scum, things seem to work out nicely.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 21, 2014, 11:23:43 am
Well, of interest, the only case where there is NOT an SK is Silverspawn lying.  Silverspawn Roleblocks Joth?  Jailkeeping is part Roleblocking, so maybe it's a sensible fake claim to make.

But he didn't claim to jailkeep me, he claimed to jailkeep Eevee. I can't believe he knew I would investigate Eevee, although I suppose it's a good guess given Eevee's role in the Hydrad lynch.

But anyway, Eevee being jailkept doesn't explain my result after all. e says he'd follow yuma's set up. yuma's setup doesn't specify, but says it follows mafiascum in all cases where it doesn't specify. mafiascum say jailkeep stops kills and prevents the target from using their action, and that's it.

So if my investigation didn't fizzle because of Silver's actions, I must have been roleblocked by the traitor or targeted the SK using the commuter power.

Is there a case where mafia no-kills on purpose so that silver can claim JK and frame Eevee?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 21, 2014, 11:24:27 am
One thing that I think hasn't been brought up at all until now - it is possible that mafia knew there is a SK since N1 (if they did no kill ADK). Not sure how that factors into things.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 11:29:22 am
Well, of interest, the only case where there is NOT an SK is Silverspawn lying.  Silverspawn Roleblocks Joth?  Jailkeeping is part Roleblocking, so maybe it's a sensible fake claim to make.

But he didn't claim to jailkeep me, he claimed to jailkeep Eevee. I can't believe he knew I would investigate Eevee, although I suppose it's a good guess given Eevee's role in the Hydrad lynch.

But anyway, Eevee being jailkept doesn't explain my result after all. e says he'd follow yuma's set up. yuma's setup doesn't specify, but says it follows mafiascum in all cases where it doesn't specify. mafiascum say jailkeep stops kills and prevents the target from using their action, and that's it.

So if my investigation didn't fizzle because of Silver's actions, I must have been roleblocked by the traitor or targeted the SK using the commuter power.

Is there a case where mafia no-kills on purpose so that silver can claim JK and frame Eevee?

Right, he claims to Jailkeep someone---Eevee---to blame for the lack of kill.  In actuality he blocked you.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 11:30:39 am
One thing that I think hasn't been brought up at all until now - it is possible that mafia knew there is a SK since N1 (if they did no kill ADK). Not sure how that factors into things.

Only possible if Jimmmm or Ichi are scum.  If Silver is scum, there is no SK.

Notably, Jimm or Ichi could be SK and the Mafia and Traitor simply claimed VT.  Any sensible reason to do that?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 21, 2014, 11:31:20 am
Well, of interest, the only case where there is NOT an SK is Silverspawn lying.  Silverspawn Roleblocks Joth?  Jailkeeping is part Roleblocking, so maybe it's a sensible fake claim to make.

But he didn't claim to jailkeep me, he claimed to jailkeep Eevee. I can't believe he knew I would investigate Eevee, although I suppose it's a good guess given Eevee's role in the Hydrad lynch.

But anyway, Eevee being jailkept doesn't explain my result after all. e says he'd follow yuma's set up. yuma's setup doesn't specify, but says it follows mafiascum in all cases where it doesn't specify. mafiascum say jailkeep stops kills and prevents the target from using their action, and that's it.

So if my investigation didn't fizzle because of Silver's actions, I must have been roleblocked by the traitor or targeted the SK using the commuter power.

Is there a case where mafia no-kills on purpose so that silver can claim JK and frame Eevee?

Right, he claims to Jailkeep someone---Eevee---to blame for the lack of kill.  In actuality he blocked you.

In this case he does NOT block his partner though.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 21, 2014, 11:31:37 am
I mean, he does not FRAME his partner.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 11:34:35 am
I mean, he does not FRAME his partner.

Yes... Eevee is not his partner.  His real partner shot him and recruited him (accidentally).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 21, 2014, 11:36:03 am
I mean, he does not FRAME his partner.

Yes... Eevee is not his partner.  His real partner shot him and recruited him (accidentally).

that means its you, faust, or ash. Ash has been impeccably townie today and I have a pretty townie read on you, so that leaves faust.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 11:38:45 am
I mean, he does not FRAME his partner.

Yes... Eevee is not his partner.  His real partner shot him and recruited him (accidentally).

that means its you, faust, or ash. Ash has been impeccably townie today and I have a pretty townie read on you, so that leaves faust.

Good point. I should add who partners would be into my table.  Silver/Faust doesn't seem implausible on its surface.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 12:02:08 pm
I appreciate Ashersky's analysis and the conclusion that he comes to which is it is either me or silver who is lying. Unfortunately, he has decided that it would be better to lynch someone who has gotten unfair suspicion this entire game and nearly mislynched by scum multiple times, over a known liar (in the context of this game) who is going to get away with one of the biggest scum plays I've ever seen.
Not too sure if there's a ton I can do to avert this. I've made my claim and done my best to offer town what information and reads I have. Eevee is of course going to join my wagon to save himself.
I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?

Oh man, suck it up. I made a strategic decision to fake a non-PR. This argument is not even good if you accept that it's policy. If you can't handle this kind of thing, don't play mafia.
I find the tone of this post unnecessarily hostile.
Considering that you lied, it's pretty obvious that you don't understand how that is a horrible thing to do as town. It doesn't matter that you think it worked out for you. I guessed correctly what you were doing right away, and if I was scum, I would have killed you N1.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 21, 2014, 12:08:18 pm
Keep in mind that we know silver didn't shoot night one. That doesn't by any means clear him, but I think if we're weighing the evidence on both sides of the silver/Ichi debate we can't leave it out.

That, by the way, is why I was more defensive of silver earlier in the game.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 12:13:02 pm
Keep in mind that we know silver didn't shoot night one. That doesn't by any means clear him, but I think if we're weighing the evidence on both sides of the silver/Ichi debate we can't leave it out.

That, by the way, is why I was more defensive of silver earlier in the game.

Oh, he was your Night 1 target?   Well, if Silver is scum, he's in Traitor Knows Mafia setup with no SK... he could be the Traitor an unable to kill.  Or Hydrad simply could have performed the kill.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 12:17:50 pm
vote: silverspawn
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 21, 2014, 12:18:55 pm
I'm less enthused about the Eevee plan. I think we do want to lynch a claimant, and I think the claimant we want to lynch is Ichi although I am far from sure.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 12:26:27 pm
Also keep in mind, Ichi scum means there is an SK.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 12:34:13 pm
Really Ichi,Jimm scum => SK is maybe the biggest evidence against Silverspawn.  We have to account for so few kills.  Granted, with SK able to use town abilities instead of killing we may expect less, but 1 kill Night 1 and 0 kills Night 2 makes SK less likely.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 21, 2014, 12:36:15 pm
Really Ichi,Jimm scum => SK is maybe the biggest evidence against Silverspawn.  We have to account for so few kills.  Granted, with SK able to use town abilities instead of killing we may expect less, but 1 kill Night 1 and 0 kills Night 2 makes SK less likely.
i don't follow, what do you mean?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 12:39:23 pm
I believe this is correct:

For clarity:

LiarTown PR1Town PR2Town PR3Mafia AddonSK?
Ichimaru (Psychologist)1-Shot CommuterJailkeeperDetectiveTraitor Knows MafiaYes
Silverspawn (Jailkeeper)1-Shot CommuterPsychologistDetectiveTraitor Knows MafiaNo
Jimmmmm (1-Shot Commuter)DetectiveJailkeeperPsychologistMafia Knows TraitorYes

If Ichi or Jimm are lying, there has to be an SK.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 21, 2014, 12:50:44 pm
Right, if silver is truthtful, there has to be a SK. I read that wrong.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 21, 2014, 12:56:47 pm
If we kill silver, we lose a JK. Jimmmmm's power is damn near useless now it's outed unfortunately. Mine and Ichi's aren't, so assuming silver is scum, we'll have two investigative roles, and one of us is likely to get through (the other is likely to get killed). So, the chances are tomorrow we can narrow the lynch pool even further.

If we kill silver and he's town, then ichi's probably the scum. In that case I'm just dead.

If we kill silver and he's town and Jimmmm's the PR scum, then scum still has a killer and a roleblocker, so neither Ichi nor I is getting an investigative result.

So if we lynch silver, we have a 1/3 chance of getting anything from our investigative roles.


If we kill Ichi and HE'S scum, then we have a jailkeeper, which means I could survive AND get an investigative result, although silver should probably go 50/50 on jailkeeping me or Eevee to get some WIFOM going or something like that.

If we kill Ichi and silver is scum then, again, I'm just dead.

If we kill Ichi and Jimmmmm is the scum ... ummm what happens if the jailkeeper and the roleblocker target each other? OP says those things happen simultaneously, but I don't know what that means. I would think that silver would get roleblocked and I would get killed, but I guess if JK has priority silver could still keep me alive.

Depending on the outcome of the JK/RB thing, this outcome might give us a 2/3 chance of having an investigative result tomorrow.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 01:02:12 pm
Quote
I find the tone of this post unnecessarily hostile.
Considering that you lied, it's pretty obvious that you don't understand how that is a horrible thing to do as town. It doesn't matter that you think it worked out for you. I guessed correctly what you were doing right away, and if I was scum, I would have killed you N1.

I find the argument deserves a hostile response. you seem to be stuck in the mindset that a lie from town is anti town in all situations, and you stick to that despite the blatant facts.

if you think I'm scum, you can vote for me. but if I'm town, then I have kept a PR hidden until day3, and I've stopped possibly 3 of 4 kills. If you think that's a "horrible thing to do as town", then I can only repeat what I said in my last post. Ash said a similar thing, I gave him a similar response. I'm not being any more nice to you, and I don't know why you expected that.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 01:07:59 pm
coming back to the actual arguments, faust is not making a bad point here. the Eevee/Ichi combination is problematic. Mh.

does someone know how good Jimmmm is as scum? could he pull this off?

Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 01:19:14 pm
Quote
I find the tone of this post unnecessarily hostile.
Considering that you lied, it's pretty obvious that you don't understand how that is a horrible thing to do as town. It doesn't matter that you think it worked out for you. I guessed correctly what you were doing right away, and if I was scum, I would have killed you N1.

I find the argument deserves a hostile response. you seem to be stuck in the mindset that a lie from town is anti town in all situations, and you stick to that despite the blatant facts.

if you think I'm scum, you can vote for me. but if I'm town, then I have kept a PR hidden until day3, and I've stopped possibly 3 of 4 kills. If you think that's a "horrible thing to do as town", then I can only repeat what I said in my last post. Ash said a similar thing, I gave him a similar response. I'm not being any more nice to you, and I don't know why you expected that.
There is nothing in my post indicating I "can't take it" (meaning your lying and anti-town play). I am only doing my best to express my opinion that you are scum and if you are town, you are not playing a pro-town game. Suggesting that I quite mafia for reasons that you have fabricated is uncalled for and illogical.

It is clear that you think you know better than everyone else and are going to play how you wish to. By all means, you are free to play however you want. You are not free to insult me in the manner that you have though--and then continue onwards as if your unwarranted statements were actually pertinent.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 01:35:42 pm
Quote
There is nothing in my post indicating I "can't take it" (meaning your lying and anti-town play). I am only doing my best to express my opinion that you are scum and if you are town, you are not playing a pro-town game. Suggesting that I quite mafia for reasons that you have fabricated is uncalled for and illogical.

It is clear that you think you know better than everyone else and are going to play how you wish to. By all means, you are free to play however you want. You are not free to insult me in the manner that you have though--and then continue onwards as if your unwarranted statements were actually pertinent.

I don't think anything I have said to you is an insult. The two worst things were "suck it up" and "if you can't handle that, stop playing mafia." I was conscious about being slightly offensive, and I also think you deserve this kind of response based on your posts. Your last post was basically saying "YOU LIED, HOW DARE YOU, I DON'T LIKE YOU" and then you voted for me. That's a policy vote. And the policy doesn't even make sense. If you want my opinion, I think that's plenty anti town.

Plus, this is a game, I'm trying to win this game, and being harsh to you is a part of that. Honestly, what did you expect? I think I expressed my feelings about the "you made a horrible decision everything you say now isn't worth anything" mentality plenty when ash brought it up. He could handle it. I don't see why you cant. People have said harsh things to me before, I'm really sensitive, and I didn't complain.

Really, you play mafia, and then you complain that people are lying to you.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 21, 2014, 01:41:28 pm
Quote
I find the tone of this post unnecessarily hostile.
Considering that you lied, it's pretty obvious that you don't understand how that is a horrible thing to do as town. It doesn't matter that you think it worked out for you. I guessed correctly what you were doing right away, and if I was scum, I would have killed you N1.

I find the argument deserves a hostile response. you seem to be stuck in the mindset that a lie from town is anti town in all situations, and you stick to that despite the blatant facts.

if you think I'm scum, you can vote for me. but if I'm town, then I have kept a PR hidden until day3, and I've stopped possibly 3 of 4 kills. If you think that's a "horrible thing to do as town", then I can only repeat what I said in my last post. Ash said a similar thing, I gave him a similar response. I'm not being any more nice to you, and I don't know why you expected that.

So, I'm town and I kept a PR hidden just as long without having to lie to town to do it. So did Jimmmmm. So I'm not sure that ends-justfiy-the-means argument holds water.

But Silver brings up a good point. If Silver is telling the truth, we have a serial killer, and that means we have 3 missing kills, not just one. That only makes sense if there IS a jailkeeper. So the argument that we should lynch Silver because if his claim is true we have an SK and the kills so far don't indicate we have an SK doesn't really work.

So Silver, who did you jailkeep night 1?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 01:43:08 pm
Quote
So Silver, who did you jailkeep night 1?

ash. I said that when I claimed JK though.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 01:44:26 pm
Quote
There is nothing in my post indicating I "can't take it" (meaning your lying and anti-town play). I am only doing my best to express my opinion that you are scum and if you are town, you are not playing a pro-town game. Suggesting that I quite mafia for reasons that you have fabricated is uncalled for and illogical.

It is clear that you think you know better than everyone else and are going to play how you wish to. By all means, you are free to play however you want. You are not free to insult me in the manner that you have though--and then continue onwards as if your unwarranted statements were actually pertinent.

I don't think anything I have said to you is an insult. The two worst things were "suck it up" and "if you can't handle that, stop playing mafia." I was conscious about being slightly offensive, and I also think you deserve this kind of response based on your posts. Your last post was basically saying "YOU LIED, HOW DARE YOU, I DON'T LIKE YOU" and then you voted for me. That's a policy vote. And the policy doesn't even make sense. If you want my opinion, I think that's plenty anti town.

Plus, this is a game, I'm trying to win this game, and being harsh to you is a part of that. Honestly, what did you expect? I think I expressed my feelings about the "you made a horrible decision everything you say now isn't worth anything" mentality plenty when ash brought it up. He could handle it. I don't see why you cant. People have said harsh things to me before, I'm really sensitive, and I didn't complain.

Really, you play mafia, and then you complain that people are lying to you.

So walk me through the logic of claiming VT in your first post?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 21, 2014, 01:44:53 pm
I'm sure you did, but there was a lot of info flying around then.

IF Silver is telling the truth, then we ought to have had two kills night one.

We didn't.

Silver jailkept ash night one.

BUT, ash is just as likely to have been the target as the killer.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 01:46:49 pm
Quote
There is nothing in my post indicating I "can't take it" (meaning your lying and anti-town play). I am only doing my best to express my opinion that you are scum and if you are town, you are not playing a pro-town game. Suggesting that I quite mafia for reasons that you have fabricated is uncalled for and illogical.

It is clear that you think you know better than everyone else and are going to play how you wish to. By all means, you are free to play however you want. You are not free to insult me in the manner that you have though--and then continue onwards as if your unwarranted statements were actually pertinent.

I don't think anything I have said to you is an insult. The two worst things were "suck it up" and "if you can't handle that, stop playing mafia." I was conscious about being slightly offensive, and I also think you deserve this kind of response based on your posts. Your last post was basically saying "YOU LIED, HOW DARE YOU, I DON'T LIKE YOU" and then you voted for me. That's a policy vote. And the policy doesn't even make sense. If you want my opinion, I think that's plenty anti town.

Plus, this is a game, I'm trying to win this game, and being harsh to you is a part of that. Honestly, what did you expect? I think I expressed my feelings about the "you made a horrible decision everything you say now isn't worth anything" mentality plenty when ash brought it up. He could handle it. I don't see why you cant. People have said harsh things to me before, I'm really sensitive, and I didn't complain.

Really, you play mafia, and then you complain that people are lying to you.
I have made no personal attacks on you. The fact that you lied has no bearing on how I feel about you as an individual. It does have relevance to this game. The fact that you are aware of the closely out-of-line behavior that you are expressing to me and you deem it "necessary" for reasons which you fail to state is not a good sign.

There is never a reason why taking such an attitude will help you win the game--as I have previously said, it is uncalled for. Just because you lied, does not mean nothing you ever say in this game will matter to me, and I have not expressed anything to that effect.

The fact that you continue to justify your behavior and make the argument that it is somehow relevant to your wincon is ludicrous. This is my 11th Mafia game that I have played to date, and I have gotten into a large number of serious arguments with many different players, but they have all stayed within civil bounds. I will reiterate that there is no reason why your unwarranted hostility will help you win this game.

I play Mafia to enjoy myself. What you are trying to do right now is not fun. Although you may see yourself as such, you are not some arbiter who can dish out offensiveness to me just because you feel like it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 01:48:39 pm
Quote
So, I'm town and I kept a PR hidden just as long without having to lie to town to do it. So did Jimmmmm. So I'm not sure that ends-justfiy-the-means argument holds water.

sure, I wasn't saying, "hey, I only survived because I did the genius claim". I was just listing facts. These facts are, I claimed VT day1, I stopped possibly 3 kills, I'm still alive day 3. Maybe I could have done the same without the claim. That's possible. Fact is, I accomplished far more than he did with his role. Given that the claim didn't cause any disadvantage, it's just not reasonable to say that it was poor play. There is no basis.

You could of course still argue that the claim was a mistake, and I'd be open to discuss that, but that's not what Ichi did. He really doesn't seem interested in the claim's consequences at all, as far as I can tell, he is just blindly hating on it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 01:50:51 pm
I'm sure you did, but there was a lot of info flying around then.

IF Silver is telling the truth, then we ought to have had two kills night one.

We didn't.

Silver jailkept ash night one.

BUT, ash is just as likely to have been the target as the killer.
well, I had a null read on ash day 1, and I thought he'd be a valuable town player, so he seemed like the ideal target. It's not unlikely that either scum or SK tried to get rid of him.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 01:52:47 pm
Quote
So, I'm town and I kept a PR hidden just as long without having to lie to town to do it. So did Jimmmmm. So I'm not sure that ends-justfiy-the-means argument holds water.

sure, I wasn't saying, "hey, I only survived because I did the genius claim". I was just listing facts. These facts are, I claimed VT day1, I stopped possibly 3 kills, I'm still alive day 3. Maybe I could have done the same without the claim. That's possible. Fact is, I accomplished far more than he did with his role. Given that the claim didn't cause any disadvantage, it's just not reasonable to say that it was poor play. There is no basis.

You could of course still argue that the claim was a mistake, and I'd be open to discuss that, but that's not what Ichi did. He really doesn't seem interested in the claim's consequences at all, as far as I can tell, he is just blindly hating on it.

How is this a fact?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 01:54:07 pm
It's poor (town) play because if you didn't act so questionable early on, we might not be questioning your claim so much now and might more easily be able to identify the liar (not you in this hypothetical).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 21, 2014, 01:56:06 pm
But Ichi's distrust of you, and mine, and Witherweaver's IS a consequence of the play. That's the number one reason you don't lie as town. Because later on you need your teammates to trust you. We don't. And what you don't seem to acknowledge, is that that could cost us the game if you ARE town and we mislynch you. And you know what? That won't be our fault. It will be yours.

Now what's done is done, and we have a lot of information to make an educated decision, so we don't HAVE to trust you, so in this case it seems to work out ok. But that's the risk you took when you lied as town (IF you lied as town) and that's what people are mad about.

You two should keep in mind, while you're squabbling, that one of the two of you is very likely scum, which means the argument is almost certainly unwinnable. So just let it go.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 21, 2014, 01:56:31 pm
Whether or not silver's gambit was good seems largely inconsequential though. Especially because most of us don't even know his alignment. And also because that's what he chose to do and our job is to catch scum, it's not like this game has a time-travelling mechanic that allows us to go back and change it or something.

Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 01:58:10 pm
But Ichi's distrust of you, and mine, and Witherweaver's IS a consequence of the play. That's the number one reason you don't lie as town. Because later on you need your teammates to trust you. We don't. And what you don't seem to acknowledge, is that that could cost us the game if you ARE town and we mislynch you. And you know what? That won't be our fault. It will be yours.

Now what's done is done, and we have a lot of information to make an educated decision, so we don't HAVE to trust you, so in this case it seems to work out ok. But that's the risk you took when you lied as town (IF you lied as town) and that's what people are mad about.

You two should keep in mind, while you're squabbling, that one of the two of you is very likely scum, which means the argument is almost certainly unwinnable. So just let it go.

The number two reason is you make WW lose his first Mafia game ever.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 01:58:39 pm
But Ichi's distrust of you, and mine, and Witherweaver's IS a consequence of the play. That's the number one reason you don't lie as town. Because later on you need your teammates to trust you. We don't. And what you don't seem to acknowledge, is that that could cost us the game if you ARE town and we mislynch you. And you know what? That won't be our fault. It will be yours.

Now what's done is done, and we have a lot of information to make an educated decision, so we don't HAVE to trust you, so in this case it seems to work out ok. But that's the risk you took when you lied as town (IF you lied as town) and that's what people are mad about.

You two should keep in mind, while you're squabbling, that one of the two of you is very likely scum, which means the argument is almost certainly unwinnable. So just let it go.
My argument is not about silver's claim or him lying. It is related solely to his hostility and choice to interpret and make personal attacks.
PPE: 1
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 21, 2014, 01:58:42 pm
You two should keep in mind, while you're squabbling, that one of the two of you is very likely scum, which means the argument is almost certainly unwinnable. So just let it go.
This!

If the person who is scum is backed into feeling he has to get unpleasant because his town self wouldn't back down from the argument, it could get all sorts of ugly. Much preferable for everyone if you both just let it go. If you feel you want to get to the bottom of it, a better time to do it would be after the game when neither has a hidden agenda.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 02:03:11 pm
It's poor (town) play because if you didn't act so questionable early on, we might not be questioning your claim so much now and might more easily be able to identify the liar (not you in this hypothetical).

well that is the obvious argument. And based on how everyone reacts, you seem to be right. I didn't expect this kind of response at all though. If I was in this game, someone else had claimed VT day 1, and then he came out and said that he really had a PR in day 3, do you think my reaction would be "you lied, now I don't believe you anymore?"

No. I'd think it's good play, I'd remember it, and if he ever does it again in another game, I'd be super suspicious. The "you lied, I don't believe you" mentality just seems immature to me, and completely unreasonable given that we are playing a game that's all about lying.

So, it's very obvious that I completely misjudged how other people would react. Well, I'm generally different from a lot of people, it's not uncommon that a lot of people consider something to be a certain way, and I just think that's very stupid. I could give you countless RL examples for that.

And really, if you could also argue that if you're not trusting me because I lied day 1 and that causes us to lose the game, that's really your fault, not mine.

PPE 5
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 02:03:25 pm
*if you you
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 02:04:38 pm
unvote

I'm done.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 02:07:27 pm
It's poor (town) play because if you didn't act so questionable early on, we might not be questioning your claim so much now and might more easily be able to identify the liar (not you in this hypothetical).

well that is the obvious argument. And based on how everyone reacts, you seem to be right. I didn't expect this kind of response at all though. If I was in this game, someone else had claimed VT day 1, and then he came out and said that he really had a PR in day 3, do you think my reaction would be "you lied, now I don't believe you anymore?"

No. I'd think it's good play, I'd remember it, and if he ever does it again in another game, I'd be super suspicious. The "you lied, I don't believe you" mentality just seems immature to me, and completely unreasonable given that we are playing a game that's all about lying.

So, it's very obvious that I completely misjudged how other people would react. Well, I'm generally different from a lot of people, it's not uncommon that a lot of people consider something to be a certain way, and I just think that's very stupid. I could give you countless RL examples for that.

And really, if you could also argue that if you're not trusting me because I lied day 1 and that causes us to lose the game, that's really your fault, not mine.

PPE 5

The game is not all about lying.  The game for scum is about lying.  And even so, you don't necessarily have to lie as scum. 

You didn't answer my earlier question, though.  What was the point of claiming VT at all?  So far you've provided no upside and have only unsuccessfully argued against the obvious (and objective) downside.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 02:10:50 pm
Don't you know silver is infallible? If he did it, by definition it was the best course of action ever.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 21, 2014, 02:12:27 pm
It would be both your and joth's fault. You are always responsible of getting yourself lynched as town, just as you are responsible for voting for town as town. Not that placing blame particularly matters, the whole argument is unbelievably petty and stupid.

And generally mafia is about figuring out who are lying and lynching them. Counting all the blitz games and RMM's, I must be at something like 80 games played here. I remember town lying in four of them. Once it didn't matter (Galzria tried claiming 1-shot cop as a normal cop to avoid getting killed, scum killed him anyways), the three other times it failed horribly, causing that player to be the very next lynch once their lie was exposed. I'm not saying there aren't circumstances where town should lie (Galzria's lie was a good example), but there is a pretty strong precedent of new, smart people coming in, thinking they have it figured out better than the veterans and choosing to lie as town. It didn't work out for pingpongsam, it didn't work out for faust, we don't know yet if it ends up working for you (or if you even are town), but it would be a first. There is even a wiki article on this, http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Lynch_All_Liars (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Lynch_All_Liars), you aren't the first to come up with the genious idea of lying as town. You know, just something to think about.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 02:18:00 pm
It would be both your and joth's fault. You are always responsible of getting yourself lynched as town, just as you are responsible for voting for town as town. Not that placing blame particularly matters, the whole argument is unbelievably petty and stupid.

And generally mafia is about figuring out who are lying and lynching them. Counting all the blitz games and RMM's, I must be at something like 80 games played here. I remember town lying in four of them. Once it didn't matter (Galzria tried claiming 1-shot cop as a normal cop to avoid getting killed, scum killed him anyways), the three other times it failed horribly, causing that player to be the very next lynch once their lie was exposed. I'm not saying there aren't circumstances where town should lie (Galzria's lie was a good example), but there is a pretty strong precedent of new, smart people coming in, thinking they have it figured out better than the veterans and choosing to lie as town. It didn't work out for pingpongsam, it didn't work out for faust, we don't know yet if it ends up working for you (or if you even are town), but it would be a first. There is even a wiki article on this, http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Lynch_All_Liars (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Lynch_All_Liars), you aren't the first to come up with the genious idea of lying as town. You know, just something to think about.

Add Shraeye lying as the Cop in my first newbie game (House of Cards) to the list. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 21, 2014, 02:18:54 pm
Wait, PPS just claimed VT at the start of day 1 as a VT, so he didn't lie. I guess it's an example of trying to go against the conventional wisdom with bad results still.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 02:19:07 pm
the downside is not objective. why would you even say that.

Quote
What was the point of claiming VT at all?

Did you ask that? If you did, I didn't see it. Noone has asked me that since right in day1.

There is an answer for that, but it's very complicated, and very long. It's not even about this game, for the most part. And it also touches on a lot of more or less irrational feelings that I have about mafia. I'm not sure posting it is really a good idea. I was planing to do it after the game, if someone asked.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 21, 2014, 02:21:27 pm
I guessed correctly what you were doing right away, and if I was scum, I would have killed you N1.

I believe this part of it.

And yet, Ichi DIDN'T kill silver night 1.

Does this mean Ichi's not scum?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 02:22:54 pm
the downside is not objective. why would you even say that.

Quote
What was the point of claiming VT at all?

Did you ask that? If you did, I didn't see it. Noone has asked me that since right in day1.

There is an answer for that, but it's very complicated, and very long. It's not even about this game, for the most part. And it also touches on a lot of more or less irrational feelings that I have about mafia. I'm not sure posting it is really a good idea. I was planing to do it after the game, if someone asked.

Because it's true.

Your thoughts behind claiming VT are relevant here because it gives us grounds to evaluate your claim now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 02:23:12 pm
Quote
Does this mean Ichi's not scum?

No. I don't believe this part for one second. For your information Ichi, I would have made the exact same post if I had been a VT. I decided to do it as town before I got my pm.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 21, 2014, 02:24:22 pm
I guessed correctly what you were doing right away, and if I was scum, I would have killed you N1.

I believe this part of it.

And yet, Ichi DIDN'T kill silver night 1.

Does this mean Ichi's not scum?
Unless he is scum with ash and ash performed the kill. Yea yea I know,
but it's f.ds it's like a rule you always have to list every edge case.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 21, 2014, 02:26:16 pm
Would you have made it as scum as well?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 02:28:00 pm
Okay, thought.  Why do we think ADK was killed Night 1?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 02:28:38 pm
Would you have made it as scum as well?
no, as scum I have mates, and I'd have to ask them before I do it (otherwise it'd really feel wrong) and then they'd ask me why I want to do it and then we have the same problem again.

I might have done it as a SK, but I probably would've been too scared to really do it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 02:32:03 pm
Also:

Quote
Vote Count 1.FINAL

Ichimaru (1): Jimmmmm,
Witherweaver (1): faust,
Eevee (3): Witherweaver, ashersky, XerxesPraelor
XerxesPraelor (4): Ichimaru Gin, Eevee, Hydrad, silverspawn, jotheonah, ADK

Quote
Final Vote Count

Jimmmmm (4): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin, faust, Eevee
Hydrad (5): Witherweaver, jotheonah, silverspawn, ashersky, Jimmmmm

Hydrad has been lynched! He was Bernard, a Mafia Goon

Voting Xerxes:  Ichimaru Gin, Eevee, Hydrad, silverspawn, jotheonah, ADK
Not Voting Hydrad: Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin, faust, Eevee

Eevee and Ichi are common. 

It may be worth analyzing these votes in each case (Ichi, Silver, Jimmm scum) to look at plausibility. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 02:32:42 pm
Would you have made it as scum as well?
no, as scum I have mates, and I'd have to ask them before I do it (otherwise it'd really feel wrong) and then they'd ask me why I want to do it and then we have the same problem again.

I might have done it as a SK, but I probably would've been too scared to really do it.

You wouldn't if you were Traitor
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 21, 2014, 02:35:24 pm
Also:

Quote
Vote Count 1.FINAL

Ichimaru (1): Jimmmmm,
Witherweaver (1): faust,
Eevee (3): Witherweaver, ashersky, XerxesPraelor
XerxesPraelor (4): Ichimaru Gin, Eevee, Hydrad, silverspawn, jotheonah, ADK

Quote
Final Vote Count

Jimmmmm (4): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin, faust, Eevee
Hydrad (5): Witherweaver, jotheonah, silverspawn, ashersky, Jimmmmm

Hydrad has been lynched! He was Bernard, a Mafia Goon

Voting Xerxes:  Ichimaru Gin, Eevee, Hydrad, silverspawn, jotheonah, ADK
Not Voting Hydrad: Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin, faust, Eevee

Eevee and Ichi are common. 

It may be worth analyzing these votes in each case (Ichi, Silver, Jimmm scum) to look at plausibility.
I was on IG for the longest time both day 1 and 2 though.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 02:39:09 pm
Would you have made it as scum as well?
no, as scum I have mates, and I'd have to ask them before I do it (otherwise it'd really feel wrong) and then they'd ask me why I want to do it and then we have the same problem again.

I might have done it as a SK, but I probably would've been too scared to really do it.

You wouldn't if you were Traitor

right.

well, if I recall my thought process correctly, I actually thought "I'll do it as a VT" before the game, because I was theorizing about it, and eventually reached the conclusion that scum is probably slightly more likely to NK me because they think I'm covering up a role than they are not to NK me because they believe my claim. Then I got the role, I was jailkeeper, and then the game started, and I was disappointed and thought maybe I wouldn't have dared it anyway and I was frustrated and then kind of did it anyway. so, who knows what I would have done as SK.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 02:40:02 pm
Also, why is it we're all looking at Ichi vs. Silver instead of Ichi vs. Silver vs. Jimmmm? 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 02:46:42 pm
right. so I think I was asking "do you think Jimmm could pull this off as scum" at some point and noone answered that.

do you think he could pull it off? it's kind of impressive. and I can't read him because I only know his lurking self.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 02:49:46 pm
right. so I think I was asking "do you think Jimmm could pull this off as scum" at some point and noone answered that.

do you think he could pull it off? it's kind of impressive. and I can't read him because I only know his lurking self.

Impressive... why?  What's different about him than Ichi or you?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 02:55:56 pm
mostly this:

That's some very insightful analysis. I appreciate that you're getting more involved, Jimmmmm.

Thanks. :)
When we only had 3 PR claims and it didn't look like we were going to have another one, I could be certain (based on jo and Ichi being ICs and Ichi claiming Psychologist) that jo was the Detective. He couldn't know for sure I was the Commuter unless he assumed no SK. I was debating the merits of claiming Detective and faking some results (dangerous I know but worst case my flip would clear it up). The point being that jo would, knowing that I'm Town and lying about my role, see what I was doing and figure that I knew he was the Detective and I was therefore the Commuter, and then he would claim Commuter so that our claims didn't contradict scum's add-on. The point of all of this being that I would then hopefully draw the NK, giving jo an extra Night to get results.
Of course, jo may not have received the message I would have been trying to send. It felt a bit like Hanabi.

Wow... I think a post like that would be really, really hard to fake as scum. I'm will assume you're town for now. Also, nice thinking. That would have been awesome had it worked out.

my dislike for the post aside, I do agree with faust that it's hard to fake. At least I agree to some extend. I wouldn't say it's "really, really hard"

And then there was his setup analysis where he made a case against lynching ichi, even though not lynching Ichi could mean lynching him instead.

I can't say much about me here. But Ichi really hasn't posted anything comparable.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 03:17:58 pm
Quote
Does this mean Ichi's not scum?

No. I don't believe this part for one second. For your information Ichi, I would have made the exact same post if I had been a VT. I decided to do it as town before I got my pm.
How does this help me know your alignment?
You say you decided to claim VT before you even started this game for some mysterious reason. Again, how does this information help?

What I have to go off of is setup analysis and your posts. From what I have played with you so far, it seems perfectly plausible that you would lie as town for whatever reason--but I'm sure you anticipated that people would think that. So it leaves me with a big fat WIFOM. Your arguments as to the effectiveness or pro-townness of your lying seem sincere, I just don't buy them. Look at the situation we are in now. If you had not fakeclaimed VT, I am sure that people would trust your claim much more. So really all that the fakeclaim did is discredit you. And ironically, you want to pin the "blame" on other people for not thinking that your wondrous lie was the towniest thing ever that will singlehandedly win us the game. As has already been pointed out scum lies, not town.

This does not mean that there is never a situation that lying as town might be beneficial. I've entertained the idea myself in recent games. However, your fakeclaim here is clearly not one of those exceptions to the rule--no matter how much you say it is. So, "suck it up" and just admit you made a mistake. It would certainly improve my read on you. I think scum has to defend their choice violently here just like you have once they realize they've screwed up.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 03:22:39 pm
Quote
Does this mean Ichi's not scum?

No. I don't believe this part for one second. For your information Ichi, I would have made the exact same post if I had been a VT. I decided to do it as town before I got my pm.
How does this help me know your alignment?
You say you decided to claim VT before you even started this game for some mysterious reason. Again, how does this information help?

What I have to go off of is setup analysis and your posts. From what I have played with you so far, it seems perfectly plausible that you would lie as town for whatever reason--but I'm sure you anticipated that people would think that. So it leaves me with a big fat WIFOM. Your arguments as to the effectiveness or pro-townness of your lying seem sincere, I just don't buy them. Look at the situation we are in now. If you had not fakeclaimed VT, I am sure that people would trust your claim much more. So really all that the fakeclaim did is discredit you. And ironically, you want to pin the "blame" on other people for not thinking that your wondrous lie was the towniest thing ever that will singlehandedly win us the game. As has already been pointed out scum lies, not town.

This does not mean that there is never a situation that lying as town might be beneficial. I've entertained the idea myself in recent games. However, your fakeclaim here is clearly not one of those exceptions to the rule--no matter how much you say it is. So, "suck it up" and just admit you made a mistake. It would certainly improve my read on you. I think scum has to defend their choice violently here just like you have once they realize they've screwed up.

... if your read "improves" on Silver... where does that leave you?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 03:25:31 pm
Quote
no matter how much you say it is. So, "suck it up" and just admit you made a mistake.

I never said it was not a mistake. I said that you are making terrible arguments for why it is a mistake, and none of them apply. An argument can still be bad, even if the thing it's arguing for is correct. If I say Scout is a weak card because it puts the cards back instead of discarding them, that's a horrible argument, despite the fact that scout is in fact a weak card.

that said, I don't think it was a mistake. I heavily implied that the claim wasn't really about this particular game, so you obviously can't judge whether or not it was successful. Not every action I take is just about improving my chances in the particular game it is in. I consider other things, e.g. future games. The easiest to explain motivation of my claim was that I wanted to become less predictable. You may recall that Voltaire basically caught me in GoT mafia after one day, even though I really tried hard to play exactly like I had done previously.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 03:28:40 pm
Quote
no matter how much you say it is. So, "suck it up" and just admit you made a mistake.

I never said it was not a mistake. I said that you are making terrible arguments for why it is a mistake, and none of them apply. An argument can still be bad, even if the thing it's arguing for is correct. If I say Scout is a weak card because it puts the cards back instead of discarding them, that's a horrible argument, despite the fact that scout is in fact a weak card.

that said, I don't think it was a mistake. I heavily implied that the claim wasn't really about this particular game, so you obviously can't judge whether or not it was successful. Not every action I take is just about improving my chances in the particular game it is in. I consider other things, e.g. future games. The easiest to explain motivation of my claim was that I wanted to become less predictable. You may recall that Voltaire basically caught me in GoT mafia after one day, even though I really tried hard to play exactly like I had done previously.

I never said this, but now I'm going to go ahead and say it.  Pointless post count +1.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 03:30:32 pm
Quote
Does this mean Ichi's not scum?

No. I don't believe this part for one second. For your information Ichi, I would have made the exact same post if I had been a VT. I decided to do it as town before I got my pm.
How does this help me know your alignment?
You say you decided to claim VT before you even started this game for some mysterious reason. Again, how does this information help?

What I have to go off of is setup analysis and your posts. From what I have played with you so far, it seems perfectly plausible that you would lie as town for whatever reason--but I'm sure you anticipated that people would think that. So it leaves me with a big fat WIFOM. Your arguments as to the effectiveness or pro-townness of your lying seem sincere, I just don't buy them. Look at the situation we are in now. If you had not fakeclaimed VT, I am sure that people would trust your claim much more. So really all that the fakeclaim did is discredit you. And ironically, you want to pin the "blame" on other people for not thinking that your wondrous lie was the towniest thing ever that will singlehandedly win us the game. As has already been pointed out scum lies, not town.

This does not mean that there is never a situation that lying as town might be beneficial. I've entertained the idea myself in recent games. However, your fakeclaim here is clearly not one of those exceptions to the rule--no matter how much you say it is. So, "suck it up" and just admit you made a mistake. It would certainly improve my read on you. I think scum has to defend their choice violently here just like you have once they realize they've screwed up.

... if your read "improves" on Silver... where does that leave you?
I agree with joth that we shouldn't be lynching out of claimed PR's today. I am not a particularly adept person with analyzing setups, so I am unsure exactly how much of Ash's analysis is true given that some people disagree with it. However, if it really is Me orSilver than my choice as to who is scum is clear. It's possible that other people are lying and/or silver lied about his role a second time (though of course very unlikely).

PPE: 2
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 03:31:30 pm
I agree with joth that we shouldn't be lynching out of claimed PR's today. I am not a particularly adept person with analyzing setups, so I am unsure exactly how much of Ash's analysis is true given that some people disagree with it. However, if it really is Me orSilver than my choice as to who is scum is clear. It's possible that other people are lying and/or silver lied about his role a second time (though of course very unlikely).

PPE: 2

If?  Lay out for me your thought process here.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 03:34:29 pm
Sigh.

Vote: Ichimaru

I'm calling Ichi/Faust now.  Someone prove me wrong.

I think it's L-1 too.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 03:35:23 pm
I agree with joth that we shouldn't be lynching out of claimed PR's today. I am not a particularly adept person with analyzing setups, so I am unsure exactly how much of Ash's analysis is true given that some people disagree with it. However, if it really is Me orSilver than my choice as to who is scum is clear. It's possible that other people are lying and/or silver lied about his role a second time (though of course very unlikely).

PPE: 2

If?  Lay out for me your thought process here.
I said I'm not the strongest with setups. However, going back and looking at the analysis the Ash and others have given, it looks very much like Me or Silver. I was confused about this though, given that some people want to lynch neither of us today--which doesn't make much sense if one of us is 100% lying scum. So that made me wonder if that's actually the way it was.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 21, 2014, 03:40:58 pm
Vote Count 3.3
 
silverspawn (1): Jimmmmm
Ichimaru Gin (4): ashersky, Eevee, silverspawn, witherweaver (L-1)
Eevee (2): jotheonah, faust

Not Voting (1): Ichimaru Gin

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.  The deadline for Day 3 will be Monday, October 27 at 5 pm forum time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 03:47:44 pm
Ah. And I see those arguments are dependent upon Jimmmmm being scum and it really being setup #6 --which looks pretty unlikely at this point.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 04:18:46 pm
It has to be me or Jimmmmm then. Not me or silver.

I know that none of you guys can know that I'm telling the truth, but here are the possibilities from my POV.

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

I can eliminate all of these options out of hand since I know my own role. I can then eliminate #2 and #8, since they include multiple roles which no one has claimed. That leaves:

4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

#4 is pretty much out since Jimmmmm claimed just 1-shot commuter without the BP and no one counterclaimed.

Leaving #6 as the only possible setup. joth, silver and I are the Detective, Jailkeeper and Psychologist respectively and Jimmmmm is lying to try and keep us from becoming IC's.

vote: Jimmmmm


I don't know how things got incorrectly framed as me or silver, but this is the only possible setup since I know my own role. Barring some insaness with other town PR's fakeclaiming VT, it has to be setup #6.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 05:04:26 pm
Quote
I never said this, but now I'm going to go ahead and say it.  Pointless post count +1.
my post was basically about how the two bold parts don't necessarily contradict, and you say it's pointless based on the fact that it includes both bold parts. well done.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 05:09:14 pm
Quote
I never said this, but now I'm going to go ahead and say it.  Pointless post count +1.
my post was basically about how the two bold parts don't necessarily contradict, and you say it's pointless based on the fact that it includes both bold parts. well done.

I don't think that's what your post was about.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 05:11:56 pm
I mean, i was purposefully having the two paragraphs begin like that to illustrate my point further. whether or not I think it was a mistake is completely independent of how I judge arguments that say "it was a mistake cause XX". If people understood this concept, the world be a much better place. This is like the least pointless post I've made this entire game. Why did you have to pick this one to make that kind of remark? Plus, if you hadn't done it, the discussion would be over now. But the fact that you did forces me to respond.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 05:15:41 pm
I mean, i was purposefully having the two paragraphs begin like that to illustrate my point further. whether or not I think it was a mistake is completely independent of how I judge arguments that say "it was a mistake cause XX". If people understood this concept, the world be a much better place. This is like the least pointless post I've made this entire game. Why did you have to pick this one to make that kind of remark? Plus, if you hadn't done it, the discussion would be over now. But the fact that you did forces me to respond.

Yes we all understand that, and we understood it before.

So, who is Ichi's partner?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 05:21:18 pm
Fine, you caught me. It's Ash.
[/sarcasm]

I guess I can't blame you given how the claiming has turned out. Somehow I end up looking scummy even though I'm telling the truth :(
Oh well, I guess my perfect record will be broken. Not the worst game to have it happen in given all the bizarre stuff that's happened.

Please lynch Jimmmmm after my flip though, because it will be obvious he is scum by then.

Also, something to consider. Regardless of what you believe about my alignment, there is a SK in the setup, since without you knowing my flip it's either #6 or #7 and both have SK's.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 05:24:49 pm
So let's pretend "1-shot BP Commuter" is a typo, since it is, and it really says "1-shot Commuter".

Want to reanalyze?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 05:27:46 pm
Dude. Four people claim. They claim:

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Psychologist.

Have a look at the possible setups and tell me how many include 3 of these and what the odd one out is.

Dude.  Four people claim.  They claim:

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Goon Cop.

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Watcher.

Your argument is correct that his fakeclaim was not fully safe.  Your argument is incorrect that he had a "better" option.  The three roles not in the setups all result in the same problem.

Goon Cop + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard
Watcher + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard

Do not exist.  Just like Psychologist + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard does not exist.

ALL THREE POSSIBILITIES ARE THE SAME.  If he's fakeclaiming, any of the three could fail, but Psychologist is the one with the easiest to fake results.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 05:30:44 pm
I prefer to lynch Ichi first (before the scum in the VT pool) because I believe he is the Traitor, and therefore the Roleblocker.  If we lynch the Goon first, we still have a Roleblocker who can just block Silver (and I guess accidentally block the SK, which is another way to account for missing kills btw).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 05:31:15 pm
I prefer to lynch Ichi first (before the scum in the VT pool) because I believe he is the Traitor, and therefore the Roleblocker.  If we lynch the Goon first, we still have a Roleblocker who can just block Silver (and I guess accidentally block the SK, which is another way to account for missing kills btw).

Actually, when Traitor is lynched, a Goon inherits the Roleblocking role.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 05:32:23 pm
I prefer to lynch Ichi first (before the scum in the VT pool) because I believe he is the Traitor, and therefore the Roleblocker.  If we lynch the Goon first, we still have a Roleblocker who can just block Silver (and I guess accidentally block the SK, which is another way to account for missing kills btw).

Actually, when Traitor is lynched, a Goon inherits the Roleblocking role.

Oh.  Lame.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 05:33:18 pm
On the earlier question of simultaneous roleblock/jk -- I assume they just cancel each other out and neither gets to do anything?  That's the best I can come up with using yumalogic.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 05:35:41 pm
So let's pretend "1-shot BP Commuter" is a typo, since it is, and it really says "1-shot Commuter".

Want to reanalyze?
Wait. . .
After checking the thread I see the 1-shot BP Commuter was a mod typo so setup #4 is entirely possible--and that's why it's me vs. silverspawn.
That explains why people came to that conclusion.

And, setup #4 actually makes the most sense given the incredible lack of kills if we actually had a SK.
Back to vote: Silverspawn

PPE: a bunch
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 05:36:55 pm
So is SK implausible? 

I've never been SK, so I need someone with more experience to tell me what they would do (or did, if you're the SK).  You have:

*2-shot JOAT of: {passive 1-shot Bulletproof, 1-shot Strongman, 1-shot Investigation Immune}
*One of each of: {Goon Cop, Detective, Psychologist, 1-shot Commuter, 1-shot Bulletproof, Bodyguard, Jailkeeper, Watcher}

Do you give up your kills to use these?  Blowing investigation immune and commuter maybe makes sense early in the game maybe.  Or maybe it's better to save for late.  Maybe you spend early game investigating to get a better feel of who's whom?  I dunno.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 05:37:09 pm
Also SK has a Roleblock in Jailkeeper.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 05:37:46 pm
On the earlier question of simultaneous roleblock/jk -- I assume they just cancel each other out and neither gets to do anything?  That's the best I can come up with using yumalogic.

That would be my guess.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 21, 2014, 05:38:16 pm
Dude. Four people claim. They claim:

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Psychologist.

Have a look at the possible setups and tell me how many include 3 of these and what the odd one out is.

Dude.  Four people claim.  They claim:

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Goon Cop.

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Watcher.

Your argument is correct that his fakeclaim was not fully safe.  Your argument is incorrect that he had a "better" option.  The three roles not in the setups all result in the same problem.

Goon Cop + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard
Watcher + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard

Do not exist.  Just like Psychologist + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard does not exist.

ALL THREE POSSIBILITIES ARE THE SAME.  If he's fakeclaiming, any of the three could fail, but Psychologist is the one with the easiest to fake results.

But if he's a Traitor in TKM there were exactly two possible setups - the one we have if he lying, or the one above. No way he comes out with a first claim which gives him a 50% chance of being auto-lynched.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 05:39:51 pm
So let's pretend "1-shot BP Commuter" is a typo, since it is, and it really says "1-shot Commuter".

Want to reanalyze?
Wait. . .
After checking the thread I see the 1-shot BP Commuter was a mod typo so setup #4 is entirely possible--and that's why it's me vs. silverspawn.
That explains why people came to that conclusion.

And, setup #4 actually makes the most sense given the incredible lack of kills if we actually had a SK.
Back to vote: Silverspawn

PPE: a bunch

Wouldn't the correct conclusion be that it's you vs. Silverspawn vs. Jimmmmm?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 21, 2014, 05:40:20 pm
Dude. Four people claim. They claim:

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Psychologist.

Have a look at the possible setups and tell me how many include 3 of these and what the odd one out is.

Dude.  Four people claim.  They claim:

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Goon Cop.

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Watcher.

Your argument is correct that his fakeclaim was not fully safe.  Your argument is incorrect that he had a "better" option.  The three roles not in the setups all result in the same problem.

Goon Cop + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard
Watcher + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard

Do not exist.  Just like Psychologist + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard does not exist.

ALL THREE POSSIBILITIES ARE THE SAME.  If he's fakeclaiming, any of the three could fail, but Psychologist is the one with the easiest to fake results.

Sorry misunderstood your point.

Scum would not make any of those claims without more information on the setup.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 05:40:56 pm
Dude. Four people claim. They claim:

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Psychologist.

Have a look at the possible setups and tell me how many include 3 of these and what the odd one out is.

Dude.  Four people claim.  They claim:

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Goon Cop.

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Watcher.

Your argument is correct that his fakeclaim was not fully safe.  Your argument is incorrect that he had a "better" option.  The three roles not in the setups all result in the same problem.

Goon Cop + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard
Watcher + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard

Do not exist.  Just like Psychologist + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard does not exist.

ALL THREE POSSIBILITIES ARE THE SAME.  If he's fakeclaiming, any of the three could fail, but Psychologist is the one with the easiest to fake results.

But if he's a Traitor in TKM there were exactly two possible setups - the one we have if he lying, or the one above. No way he comes out with a first claim which gives him a 50% chance of being auto-lynched.

Is making a mistake that unlikely?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 21, 2014, 05:41:39 pm
Please lynch Jimmmmm after my flip though, because it will be obvious he is scum by then.

How would it be obvious?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 05:42:31 pm
So let's pretend "1-shot BP Commuter" is a typo, since it is, and it really says "1-shot Commuter".

Want to reanalyze?
Wait. . .
After checking the thread I see the 1-shot BP Commuter was a mod typo so setup #4 is entirely possible--and that's why it's me vs. silverspawn.
That explains why people came to that conclusion.

And, setup #4 actually makes the most sense given the incredible lack of kills if we actually had a SK.
Back to vote: Silverspawn

PPE: a bunch

Wouldn't the correct conclusion be that it's you vs. Silverspawn vs. Jimmmmm?
There is still the outside chance that Jimmmmm is lying, but I was only voting him due to my erroneous setup interpretation. That would also mean that both D2 wagons were on scum, which strikes me as pretty unlikely.

PPE: I completely spaced on the mod error and thought that the setup could only be #6
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 05:44:28 pm
My PPE is in reference to Jimmmmm's most recent post.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 21, 2014, 05:53:47 pm
To Jimmmmm:

Ichi claimed at L-1 (right?) on Day 2.  He could likely have been the lynch.  Now

Quote
But in the case of Row 3, [...] The four claims would then be BP, JK, Bodyguard and Psychologist, and there are no possible setups which have a Psychologist and two of the others - the only possible setup with these four claims is Row 3, which excludes Psychologist.

This is true, but it requires some thinking about the setup.  Is it possible he just looked at all the PR's that weren't on Row 3 U Column 3, that is, {Watcher, Goon Cop, Psychologist}, and picked one?  Out of these three, psychologist has the advantage that he doesn't really need to "clear" people; it's not as accountable.  He gets "can't kill" and the turn up Mafia or SK, well, maybe they had already killed.

I think your argument requires optimal play.  Honestly, if I was coming up with a fake claim, there's a good chance I might not choose carefully enough.

From you it's certainly Silver vs. Ichi.  Your argument implies Ichi couldn't have claimed what he did as scum, so it has to be Silver.  Is there another reason you think it's Silver (besides the opportunistic fear of having 3 IC's)?

For the rest of us, we have no reason to believe Jimmmm is confirmed, right?

If it isn't clear, I'm operating under the assumption that all town PR's have claimed, so there aren't two liars in the set of four claimers.

I appreciate this point, as scum incompetence is pretty much the only counterpoint. I suspect, especially with scum lynched Yesterday, that they would have thought about/discussed a massclaim Today. If they didn't, silver's claim seems much more like it could have been on the fly than Ichi's.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 05:56:59 pm
But they can't have discussed---they don't have a QT together.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 21, 2014, 06:07:55 pm
Unless the Traitor was recruited - whether or not it was discussed between two people is a fairly minor point.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 06:20:55 pm
Unless the Traitor was recruited - whether or not it was discussed between two people is a fairly minor point.

Only on Night 1; if Traitor was recruited last night they wouldn't be able to talk about it.

My thought was that two people were more likely to realize a problem with claims than one person.  So non discussion makes the error more likely.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 21, 2014, 06:31:36 pm
Unless the Traitor was recruited - whether or not it was discussed between two people is a fairly minor point.

Only on Night 1; if Traitor was recruited last night they wouldn't be able to talk about it.

My thought was that two people were more likely to realize a problem with claims than one person.  So non discussion makes the error more likely.

It's possible, but I don't think it's very likely. Even without anyone to bounce off, I doubt scum would come out with the first claim without thinking through the consequences. I doubt it's sheer chance that allowed scum a half-believable claim.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 06:59:09 pm
I prefer to lynch Ichi first (before the scum in the VT pool) because I believe he is the Traitor, and therefore the Roleblocker.  If we lynch the Goon first, we still have a Roleblocker who can just block Silver (and I guess accidentally block the SK, which is another way to account for missing kills btw).

Actually, when Traitor is lynched, a Goon inherits the Roleblocking role.

oh well that sucks.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 07:02:08 pm
that almost makes me want to do Eevee again
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 07:06:28 pm
Why?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 07:10:11 pm
Why?
because an argument for Ichi was that if we kill the traitor, we kill the roleblocker
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 07:14:06 pm
Why?
because an argument for Ichi was that if we kill the traitor, we kill the roleblocker

Sure, if you're not you.  Did you forget about the youness of you?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 07:15:05 pm
Why?
because an argument for Ichi was that if we kill the traitor, we kill the roleblocker

Sure, if you're not you.  Did you forget about the youness of you?

what?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 07:16:11 pm
what are you even doing? i think I liked you better yesterday.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 07:25:10 pm
From a VT-claim perspective, there are three choices for scum in PR claims and three choices for scum in VT claims.  That the Traitor is more likely a PR claim gives an advantage to lynching out of PR claim if Traitor death removes Roleblocking.

However, this isn't your perspective.  From your perspective, the only PR choices for scum are Ichi, Jimm.  You've basically expressed a strong town read on Jimmmmm.  You don't need to thought above because you can eliminate yourself as possible scum.  You basically *know* that Ichi is scum up to the possibility that you think Jimmmm may be town.

Moving away from Ichi for that claimed reason doesn't make sense from your perspective.

Hence, you forgot that you were you. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 07:37:57 pm
I really have said all of this before. I Know either Ichi or Jimmm is scum. I've gone back and forth on these two, and right now I'm maybe 65%/35% for Jimmm, based on these 2 posts, and also the lack of resistance from Ichi. I'm still over 90% on Eevee, because I blocked him. That's not a read, it's a way more solid evidence.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 21, 2014, 07:38:54 pm
so,

Quote
Hence, you forgot that you were you. 

No. I didn't.

I'll go to bed now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 07:48:49 pm
You also doctored Eevee.  There are many explanations for no kill. So how is it 90%?

You also seemed more than 65% sure about Jimmmmm before.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 08:58:14 pm
I think there's also the fact that Ichi was on the D1 mislynch and off the D2 correct lynch (like Eevee).  That's another point against him.

As for safe claim/smart claim/etc. -- Ichi claimed under pressure.  I think he took a chance and claimed a PR hoping to survive.

I am arguing that, AT THE TIME OF HIS CLAIM, he made the safest claim he could if he is a Traitor in TKM.  If he is a Traitor in TKM, he knows there are exactly three roles NOT in the game.  He chose the one with the easiest to fake results.  For all I know, he shot me and I was saved by Silver's jailkeeping, and he claimed to investigate me to cover bases (although there's no tracker...it's always best to use as much truth in your lie as possible).

I feel like you are arguing that he had a 50% chance of claiming a role that could not exist when the three real PRs became known.  But at the time that he claimed Psychologist, any single other PR in the game at the time would know that a psychologist was possible.

Remember, no one else had claimed.  If he's the Traitor in TKM, the only way his Psychologist claim is immediately caught is if a BP Townie exists.  A JK, Detective, Commuter, or Bodyguard all have options for setups with a Psychologist, so they can't immediately out him.

So it was a 1 in 5 chance he gets caught immediately.  20%.  Not great, but better than dying.  If he claims Goon Cop, it doesn't work with Jailkeeper OR BP townie and he knew the JK existed, so that's out.  If he claims Watcher, it doesn't work with Detective or Bodyguard.

So Psychologist was a 1/5 chance of failing immediately.  The other two available fake claims were a 2/5 chance of failing immediately.  Ergo, if a Traitor in TKM is going to fakeclaim a PR, it has to be Psychologist.  (Good to know if this setup is run again, btw)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 08:59:51 pm
Quote
So Psychologist was a 1/5 chance of failing immediately.  The other two available fake claims were a 2/5 chance of failing immediately.  Ergo, if a Traitor in TKM is going to fakeclaim a PR, it has to be Psychologist.  (Good to know if this setup is run again, btw)

Actually, this should say "so Psychologist was a 1/5 chance of failing immediately.  The other two available fake claims were 100% chance of failure (Goon Cop) or 2/5 chance of failure.  Ergo, if a Traitor in TKM...
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 09:00:30 pm
So I take all that, and I compare it to the other three claims with regards to timing, reasoning, and possibility of being fake, and I come to the conclusion that Ichi's claim is the most likely to fake.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 09:15:10 pm
What you said is true in terms of the circumstances surrounding my claim. However, the fact that I was the first PR to claim also gave scum additional information to formulate their own fakeclaims based off of mine. Depending what scum knew from their own roles or knowing their partners or not + my claim, it would allow them to narrow the setup down substantially--thus giving them the ability to craft much more believable fakeclaims.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 09:43:46 pm
What you said is true in terms of the circumstances surrounding my claim. However, the fact that I was the first PR to claim also gave scum additional information to formulate their own fakeclaims based off of mine. Depending what scum knew from their own roles or knowing their partners or not + my claim, it would allow them to narrow the setup down substantially--thus giving them the ability to craft much more believable fakeclaims.

Which scum?  Who did this? How did they use the information in this situation?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 21, 2014, 09:49:32 pm
I am arguing that, AT THE TIME OF HIS CLAIM, he made the safest claim he could if he is a Traitor in TKM.

Wrong. The safest claim would be VT. Another safer option would be withhold claiming entirely, especially since (if I remember the timing rightly) I had already proposed a massclaim and probably seemed fairly likely to claim willingly.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 09:55:01 pm
I am arguing that, AT THE TIME OF HIS CLAIM, he made the safest claim he could if he is a Traitor in TKM.

Wrong. The safest claim would be VT. Another safer option would be withhold claiming entirely, especially since (if I remember the timing rightly) I had already proposed a massclaim and probably seemed fairly likely to claim willingly.

Okay, I should have written out "safest PR fake claim he could make" instead of just claim.  But now you are just making arguments to try to belittle me, and I don't appreciate it.  You knew exactly what I mean when I wrote it in the context of my entire post.  But you pulled out a single line and make a statement such as yours to try and make me look stupid and idiotic.  Thanks.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 21, 2014, 09:55:10 pm
So it was a 1 in 5 chance he gets caught immediately.

Wrong. In the even of a massclaim Today, which had already been proposed, he had a 1 in 2 chance of being automatically lynched Today, and a 1 in 2 chance of being part of a 1 scum in 3. That's a 1 in 3 chance of surviving the Day. Scum don't willingly give themselves a 1 in 3 chance of surviving.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 21, 2014, 09:56:48 pm
I am arguing that, AT THE TIME OF HIS CLAIM, he made the safest claim he could if he is a Traitor in TKM.

Wrong. The safest claim would be VT. Another safer option would be withhold claiming entirely, especially since (if I remember the timing rightly) I had already proposed a massclaim and probably seemed fairly likely to claim willingly.

Okay, I should have written out "safest PR fake claim he could make" instead of just claim.  But now you are just making arguments to try to belittle me, and I don't appreciate it.  You knew exactly what I mean when I wrote it in the context of my entire post.  But you pulled out a single line and make a statement such as yours to try and make me look stupid and idiotic.  Thanks.

Civility remember. Don't try to make things personal when they're not.

My point is valid - if scum he didn't have to claim a PR, and he certainly didn't have to claim when he did.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 09:57:36 pm
So it was a 1 in 5 chance he gets caught immediately.

Wrong. In the even of a massclaim Today, which had already been proposed, he had a 1 in 2 chance of being automatically lynched Today, and a 1 in 2 chance of being part of a 1 scum in 3. That's a 1 in 3 chance of surviving the Day. Scum don't willingly give themselves a 1 in 3 chance of surviving.

And yet you continue.  This is why yuma quit.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 21, 2014, 10:00:17 pm
So it was a 1 in 5 chance he gets caught immediately.

Wrong. In the even of a massclaim Today, which had already been proposed, he had a 1 in 2 chance of being automatically lynched Today, and a 1 in 2 chance of being part of a 1 scum in 3. That's a 1 in 3 chance of surviving the Day. Scum don't willingly give themselves a 1 in 3 chance of surviving.

And yet you continue.  This is why yuma quit.

Please don't pull this again. You can't expect me to stop arguing my point just because you say you've had your feelings hurt.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 10:01:20 pm
Please don't pull this again. You can't expect me to stop arguing my point just because you say you've had your feelings hurt.

How about because you are being unfair?  Don't pull single lines out of context to disprove or to make me look stupid.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 10:05:51 pm
So it was a 1 in 5 chance he gets caught immediately.

Wrong. In the even of a massclaim Today, which had already been proposed, he had a 1 in 2 chance of being automatically lynched Today, and a 1 in 2 chance of being part of a 1 scum in 3. That's a 1 in 3 chance of surviving the Day. Scum don't willingly give themselves a 1 in 3 chance of surviving.

But he was going to get lynched Day 2.  Or, he thought it was a very strong chance.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 10:07:52 pm
What you said is true in terms of the circumstances surrounding my claim. However, the fact that I was the first PR to claim also gave scum additional information to formulate their own fakeclaims based off of mine. Depending what scum knew from their own roles or knowing their partners or not + my claim, it would allow them to narrow the setup down substantially--thus giving them the ability to craft much more believable fakeclaims.

Which scum?  Who did this? How did they use the information in this situation?
All I'm saying is that scum would then know my role and use to build their own fakeclaims.
So "Ichi's a Psychologist and we know x from our own roles and what we know means the setup is #y, so it's best to claim z (1-shot commuter, or Jailkeeper).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 10:08:24 pm
What you said is true in terms of the circumstances surrounding my claim. However, the fact that I was the first PR to claim also gave scum additional information to formulate their own fakeclaims based off of mine. Depending what scum knew from their own roles or knowing their partners or not + my claim, it would allow them to narrow the setup down substantially--thus giving them the ability to craft much more believable fakeclaims.

Which scum?  Who did this? How did they use the information in this situation?
All I'm saying is that scum would then know my role and use to build their own fakeclaims.
So "Ichi's a Psychologist and we know x from our own roles and what we know means the setup is #y, so it's best to claim z (1-shot commuter, or Jailkeeper).

That is of course true if you are town.  But you aren't.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 10:09:11 pm
What you said is true in terms of the circumstances surrounding my claim. However, the fact that I was the first PR to claim also gave scum additional information to formulate their own fakeclaims based off of mine. Depending what scum knew from their own roles or knowing their partners or not + my claim, it would allow them to narrow the setup down substantially--thus giving them the ability to craft much more believable fakeclaims.

Which scum?  Who did this? How did they use the information in this situation?
All I'm saying is that scum would then know my role and use to build their own fakeclaims.
So "Ichi's a Psychologist and we know x from our own roles and what we know means the setup is #y, so it's best to claim z (1-shot commuter, or Jailkeeper).

That is of course true if you are town.  But you aren't.
Please stop bussing me Ash.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 10:13:03 pm
What you said is true in terms of the circumstances surrounding my claim. However, the fact that I was the first PR to claim also gave scum additional information to formulate their own fakeclaims based off of mine. Depending what scum knew from their own roles or knowing their partners or not + my claim, it would allow them to narrow the setup down substantially--thus giving them the ability to craft much more believable fakeclaims.

Which scum?  Who did this? How did they use the information in this situation?
All I'm saying is that scum would then know my role and use to build their own fakeclaims.
So "Ichi's a Psychologist and we know x from our own roles and what we know means the setup is #y, so it's best to claim z (1-shot commuter, or Jailkeeper).

That is of course true if you are town.  But you aren't.
Please stop bussing me Ash.

Never!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 21, 2014, 10:13:29 pm
What you said is true in terms of the circumstances surrounding my claim. However, the fact that I was the first PR to claim also gave scum additional information to formulate their own fakeclaims based off of mine. Depending what scum knew from their own roles or knowing their partners or not + my claim, it would allow them to narrow the setup down substantially--thus giving them the ability to craft much more believable fakeclaims.

Which scum?  Who did this? How did they use the information in this situation?
All I'm saying is that scum would then know my role and use to build their own fakeclaims.
So "Ichi's a Psychologist and we know x from our own roles and what we know means the setup is #y, so it's best to claim z (1-shot commuter, or Jailkeeper).

Yeah, but that's kind of just quoting a general principle.  I'm saying, tell me a story.  Who used this information and what fake claim did they make, and why did they make it?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 21, 2014, 10:20:27 pm
What you said is true in terms of the circumstances surrounding my claim. However, the fact that I was the first PR to claim also gave scum additional information to formulate their own fakeclaims based off of mine. Depending what scum knew from their own roles or knowing their partners or not + my claim, it would allow them to narrow the setup down substantially--thus giving them the ability to craft much more believable fakeclaims.

Which scum?  Who did this? How did they use the information in this situation?
All I'm saying is that scum would then know my role and use to build their own fakeclaims.
So "Ichi's a Psychologist and we know x from our own roles and what we know means the setup is #y, so it's best to claim z (1-shot commuter, or Jailkeeper).

Yeah, but that's kind of just quoting a general principle.  I'm saying, tell me a story.  Who used this information and what fake claim did they make, and why did they make it?

That was what my analysis was trying to show.  Silverspawn went second, and claimed Jailkeeper, knowing Ichi had claimed Psychologist.  Then Jimmmm claimed 1-Shot Commuter, knowing the first two claimed.

As I went through each one, I took into account known and unknown information.  And to me, each subsequent claim was more believable, not less.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 10:34:31 pm
Never!
Yeah. It probably is the best call in this situation. I don't think anyone suspects you, so we probably have a good chance of winning.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 10:35:59 pm
Seriously though, if there's no chance of me not being lynched today then I guess someone might as well hammer.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 10:50:28 pm
*Sigh*
This will be my first mislynch--and as a town PR no less.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 21, 2014, 11:09:31 pm
Well. I'm going to bed soon. Yesterday there were four pages while I was asleep. I at least want to be around when/if you guys kill me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 22, 2014, 04:49:17 am
Please don't pull this again. You can't expect me to stop arguing my point just because you say you've had your feelings hurt.

How about because you are being unfair?  Don't pull single lines out of context to disprove or to make me look stupid.

Firstly, I didn't take you out of context. What you said means exactly the same with or without the rest of your post. You said that at the time of his claim Psychologist was the most sensible claim. I strongly disagree, and regardless of how sensible other PR claims would be, Psychologist was a very unsensible claim for a Traitor in TKM to make, since it has a 50% chance of disaster in the event of a massclaim.

Secondly, I'm allowed to take you out of context if I want. If I'm scum or I think you're scum and either way I want to turn other people's opinions against you, there is nothing in the rules saying I can't manipulate your words to sound however I want them to sound. The whole post is just a click or a scroll away, and you're quite capable of clarifying what you actually meant.

I am not okay with you questioning my motives on a personal level. I think you've known me long enough (to the extent that we know each other) to know that I'm not the kind of person to want to actually belittle someone or make them feel dumb. I'm just trying to play the game and when I think you're very wrong about something in the game, I'm going to say it.

In the civility pledge that you were the first person to commit to, and implored others to do the same, it says:

Your criticisms of other players should not rise to the level of personal attacks. At the same time, you should assume other players' criticisms of you are not intended as personal attacks.

I feel like at times you are too quick to assume someone is personally attacking you. This is reminding me of Chocolate Factory (in which I received a positive Goon result on you and waited until about halfway through the Day to announce it). At times during that game you were questioning my motives on a personal level and I felt gagged in a way, like anything I said against you you would take personally, and I felt inhibited in my ability to play the game and argue against someone who I knew was scum. As I said, I'm not okay with this, and I will not allow it to stop me from saying what I want to say. I am also not okay with you threatening to leave f.ds because of an in-game argument (which if you didn't mean to imply it is at least understandable that that's what I took from it).

For a point relevant to actual scumhunting in this game, ash here is very much reminding me of ash from Chocolate Factory. He was before he mentioned personal stuff, and even more so now. That in my mind is strong evidence against him.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 05:21:48 am
Now who's taking things personally, appealing to emotion?

Pot, meet kettle.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 05:24:50 am
And are you claiming a goon result on me, having lied about being a commuter?  Because if you aren't, I fail to see the relevance of an ancient game where you had actual evidence.

Am I the goon who knowingly destroyed my partner hydrad?  You know I never bus, ever.  Am I the unluckiest traitor alive?  Did I bus the goon I knew was my partner?

Ash is scum because my spidey sense is tingling because scum!Ash plays mafia like an asshole is not a legitimate case.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 22, 2014, 05:25:13 am
Now who's taking things personally, appealing to emotion?

Pot, meet kettle.

I think I'm done engaging with you for the moment.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 05:26:55 am
Now who's taking things personally, appealing to emotion?

Pot, meet kettle.

I think I'm done engaging with you for the moment.

If you have "the right" to do x, y, or z in the name of the game, it only seems fair that I can do the same.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 22, 2014, 05:32:30 am
Not when you pledged to do otherwise.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 05:33:20 am
Secondly, I'm allowed to take you out of context if I want. If I'm scum or I think you're scum and either way I want to turn other people's opinions against you, there is nothing in the rules saying I can't manipulate your words to sound however I want them to sound.

Relevant quote here.

You say you are allowed to do what you want, regardless of its effect on the person you do it to.

Then why can't I?

I can take what you say and portray them as personal attacks if I want, right?  Isn't that what you argue here?  You can take my words and portray them dishonestly to say whatever you want.  I can do the same.  The difference here is I'm not being dishonest, I'm just saying what I feel.

And if you want to play the "we know each other well" card, then you should know me well enough that I don't lie about this stuff, regardless of alignment.  I don't fake fights, emotions, or reactions.  I'll lie about a claim or whatever as scum, but the feelings are 100% genuine.

If you think it's okay for you, it should be okay for me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 05:35:14 am
Not when you pledged to do otherwise.

So the pledge applies differently to you than to me?

You were literally JUST complaining about my posts being offensive to you because I took them personally.  So you took mine personally.  Hence you are doing exactly what you are accusing me off.

So I ask again, if you can, why can't i?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 05:37:06 am
Also, why are we arguing?

You feel that strongly that Ichi is telling the truth?  Actually do something to show why it is joth or silver who is lying.  And "stop the 3 ICs" argument is weak.  Tell us why his claim is fake.

But you've married yourself to Ichi now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 22, 2014, 05:56:16 am
Can you, uh, not lynch Ichi for the moment? I have to kind of think through the last couple of pages, but don't have the time right now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 22, 2014, 05:58:39 am
Expect more input from me tomorrow around the same time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 22, 2014, 06:01:20 am
Am I the goon who knowingly destroyed my partner hydrad?  You know I never bus, ever.  Am I the unluckiest traitor alive?  Did I bus the goon I knew was my partner?

One question though: Do you deliberately leave out an option here?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 06:19:55 am
Am I the goon who knowingly destroyed my partner hydrad?  You know I never bus, ever.  Am I the unluckiest traitor alive?  Did I bus the goon I knew was my partner?

One question though: Do you deliberately leave out an option here?

Yep.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 22, 2014, 08:33:36 am
Yeah, I am in way too deep here. What if like to do is compile master cases against ichi, jimmmmm, and silver, with pros and cons. Iight have time for that this afternoon.

(I know ash did a lot of this earlier and its much appreciated, but I want to make sure he didn't accidentally or intentionally leave anything out)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 22, 2014, 09:22:19 am
ash you are being ridiculous.

I have never attacked you personally, and it's highly unlikely I ever will. Accusing me of doing so when I haven't is not okay, and is explicitly in violation of the civility pledge.

To everyone else, I'm sorry for my part in this mostly unhelpful argument. silver is scum, let's just lynch him already.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 22, 2014, 09:25:32 am
Maybe it would be helpful for everyone to make a most want to lynch to least want to lynch list?

I think mine goes: Ichi-Silver-Eevee-Jimmmmm-ash-faust-WW-me
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 22, 2014, 09:27:42 am
silver-ash-witherweaver/faust-Eevee-Ichi
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 22, 2014, 09:36:26 am
Silver and Ichi on opposite ends? that is a high degree of certainty in the central debate.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 09:42:46 am
PRs: Ichi > Silver > Jimmmm

VTs: Eevee > Faust > Ash

Joth is conf!Town and I'm Town.

Ichi slightly above Silver, but I keep going back and forth.  Ichi is a read.. Silver reads as misguided Town and not scum.  Ichi reads as scum.  Ichi's posts do not seem to come from the perspective that someone in his position should.. i.e., someone that actually has more information than we all do, because he really has a PR.  Jimmmm's arguments make sense, but I don't think Ichi making a mistake is that unlikely at all.

Of course, if Ich is scum there is an SK somewhere.  My bet is Eevee or Ash. 

I think I asked this before but didn't get a response.  Would SK claim a PR in this setup?  Here they actually can use the ability, at least once, so maybe they're thinking they can look like they confirm their claim.

Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 09:43:14 am
silver-ash-witherweaver/faust-Eevee-Ichi

Why is Eevee so low?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 22, 2014, 10:02:23 am
silver-ash-witherweaver/faust-Eevee-Ichi

this is ridiculous and it makes me want to lynch you over Ichi again.

to clarify, me first is fine. ash second is not. eevee second last is insane. Ichi last too.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 10:05:26 am
silver-ash-witherweaver/faust-Eevee-Ichi

this is ridiculous and it makes me want to lynch you over Ichi again.

to clarify, me first is fine. ash second is not. eevee second last is insane. Ichi last too.

This (that is, the Eevee thing) is still not justified.  And you and Ichi can't be scum together, so the more certain he is about one, the more certain he is about the other.  So that part isn't so bad.

Though, I agree Eevee below all the other VT claims is odd.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 22, 2014, 10:11:15 am
well right now there are a number of arguments for both jimmmm and Ichi, from my perspective

pro Jimmm:
-> he's probably better at scum than Ichi, and I don't like how he's suddenly not even in the lynch pool. it makes me scared. I don't know how common it is that he's so active, but I feel like people just don't want to lynch him based on that
-> him trying to defend ichi so much is just plain weird. I used to give him town cred for that, but by now, it almost seems like he isn't concerned about his lynch anyway, and just wants to kill me instead of Ichi. Why? even if we assume that Ichi has thought so far that his argument makes sense, his claim is still just as good as mine.
-> I don't like the way he plays at all. I'd feel much more comfortable if he's not around anymore. I also think ash is clearly in the right in their discussion about manners and policy
-> He seems very set on lynching me, if he is kept alive, that could mean trouble.

pro Ichi:
-> ash's analysis
-> his day1
-> self-preservation

Objectively, I should stay on Ichi, and I think that's what I'll do. but I feel really bad about it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 22, 2014, 10:13:08 am
oh and, if Ichi flips scum, I am an IC, right? that'd be nice.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 10:15:16 am
well right now there are a number of arguments for both jimmmm and Ichi, from my perspective

pro Jimmm:
-> he's probably better at scum than Ichi, and I don't like how he's suddenly not even in the lynch pool. it makes me scared. I don't know how common it is that he's so active, but I feel like people just don't want to lynch him based on that
-> him trying to defend ichi so much is just plain weird. I used to give him town cred for that, but by now, it almost seems like he isn't concerned about his lynch anyway, and just wants to kill me instead of Ichi. Why? even if we assume that Ichi has thought so far that his argument makes sense, his claim is still just as good as mine.
-> I don't like the way he plays at all. I'd feel much more comfortable if he's not around anymore. I also think ash is clearly in the right in their discussion about manners and policy
-> He seems very set on lynching me, if he is kept alive, that could mean trouble.

pro Ichi:
-> ash's analysis
-> his day1
-> self-preservation

Objectively, I should stay on Ichi, and I think that's what I'll do. but I feel really bad about it.

But does "weird" mean scummy?  What's his motivation for this as scum?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 22, 2014, 10:17:56 am
I don't know?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 22, 2014, 10:21:30 am
what is his motivation as town to push my lynch like this? why would he misread me so much, when I'm apparently not hard to read? I've never been mislynched, and in my only scum game that's over, I've been figured out pretty quickly. Am I supposed to just buy that?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 10:30:07 am
what is his motivation as town to push my lynch like this? why would he misread me so much, when I'm apparently not hard to read? I've never been mislynched, and in my only scum game that's over, I've been figured out pretty quickly. Am I supposed to just buy that?

He has an argument.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 22, 2014, 02:52:00 pm
-> I don't like the way he plays at all. I'd feel much more comfortable if he's not around anymore.

What do you mean by that?

Quote
I also think ash is clearly in the right in their discussion about manners and policy

What do you mean by that?? How have I been personal with ash? Does anyone else think that ash is right and I've personally attacked him?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 22, 2014, 02:57:24 pm
I don't recall anything that I felt was a personal attack that you made against Ash.

Earlier in this game, I felt personally attacked by silver--and apparently he felt the same by me or that one of my posts was "I don't like you because you lied".

Really though, I think that everyone should pay the most attention to the portion of the civility pledge that you quoted about not choosing to interpret things as personal attacks.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 22, 2014, 02:58:21 pm
Thank you.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 02:58:49 pm
-> I don't like the way he plays at all. I'd feel much more comfortable if he's not around anymore.

What do you mean by that?

Quote
I also think ash is clearly in the right in their discussion about manners and policy

What do you mean by that?? How have I been personal with ash? Does anyone else think that ash is right and I've personally attacked him?

No, and I don't think it's worth talking about more. (Well, okay, your "Wrong." is a bit abrasive, but eh.)

HOWEVER, I forgot to bring this up earlier: I don't think this is a scumtell for Ash. He's said very similar things and acted very similarly as Town. 

Do you have another reason for suspecting him?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 22, 2014, 03:11:03 pm
Objectively, I should stay on Ichi, and I think that's what I'll do. but I feel really bad about it.
Could you elaborate on the bolded part?
I'm not opposed to an Eevee lynch today either.

Also,

Am I the goon who knowingly destroyed my partner hydrad?  You know I never bus, ever.  Am I the unluckiest traitor alive?  Did I bus the goon I knew was my partner?

One question though: Do you deliberately leave out an option here?

Yep.
Is this Ash softclaiming SK?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 22, 2014, 03:12:50 pm
Addendum: Or am I missing something in this cryptic exchange between Ash and WW?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 22, 2014, 03:13:10 pm
*Ash and faust
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 22, 2014, 03:20:58 pm
it definitely seemed like ash was softclaiming SK, which is pretty weird.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 22, 2014, 03:48:15 pm
Some of the things silver say feel so self-serving to me, like he doesn't really think them but is saying them because they help his position, but it's very possible that's just us thinking about the game differently. I find the argument between Jimmm and ash weird, I thought Jimm's initial comments that spurred it were quite reasonable, so I was surprised both sides got heated like that.

Anyways, I still want to lynch Ichi. If we have a serial killer, finding him is of course tough because scumhunting doesn't help as he was looking for mafia just the same as us townies.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 04:12:16 pm
oh and, if Ichi flips scum, I am an IC, right? that'd be nice.

When any one PR claim flips scum, the other three are ICs.

That's another good reason to lynch amongst PRs.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 22, 2014, 04:15:36 pm
Quote
Could you elaborate on the bolded part?
it basically means, I really dislike what jimmm is doing, and everything in me says "LYNCH HIM!", but that should not be what my decision is based on.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 04:15:48 pm
Quote
I also think ash is clearly in the right in their discussion about manners and policy

What do you mean by that?? How have I been personal with ash? Does anyone else think that ash is right and I've personally attacked him?

I think questions like this are trying to split the town into ash vs. jimmmmm in a personal way.  You are taking the accusation that you were personal with me personally and asking for others in the game to take your side.

You aren't making cases, you are just talking about me, the player.  That's by definition personal, not "in-game."
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 04:16:25 pm
Thank you.

And this, to me, looks like twisting the knife.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 22, 2014, 04:18:55 pm
Quote
Could you elaborate on the bolded part?
it basically means, I really dislike what jimmm is doing, and everything in me says "LYNCH HIM!", but that should not be what my decision is based on.

What have I done that you dislike?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 04:22:17 pm
Am I the goon who knowingly destroyed my partner hydrad?  You know I never bus, ever.  Am I the unluckiest traitor alive?  Did I bus the goon I knew was my partner?

One question though: Do you deliberately leave out an option here?

Yep.
Is this Ash softclaiming SK?

This was Faust helping me make my point against Jimmmmm (intentionally? Don't know).

He quoted me out of context with the intention of painting me scummily, implying I was the SK forgetting or just intentionally leaving out that possibility.

If the context is returned to the quote, you will see that I'm pointing out the lack of a case by jimmmmm for me to be scum.  He's fighting me in his white knighting of Ichi, trying to make me look scummy for it.  I gave quite a few example of why I'm not mafia.

Why didn't I do the same for SK?  Well, objectively speaking, I'm more likely to be the SK than mafia given I'm in the VT pool.  There's also no clear reason why anyone is or isn't the SK currently, including me. 

As I pointed out earlier to jimmmm, I am brutally, intensely honest when I play this game.  Even as scum, I'm not particularly deceitful, nor do I lie about anything (claims and partners excepted).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 04:23:43 pm
it definitely seemed like ash was softclaiming SK, which is pretty weird.

If anyone thinks I'm the SK, it at the very least should cement in your mind that Ichi is the fake claimer.

He said I had no power to kill on N1, after all.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 22, 2014, 04:25:41 pm
Quote
I also think ash is clearly in the right in their discussion about manners and policy

What do you mean by that?? How have I been personal with ash? Does anyone else think that ash is right and I've personally attacked him?

I think questions like this are trying to split the town into ash vs. jimmmmm in a personal way.  You are taking the accusation that you were personal with me personally and asking for others in the game to take your side.

You aren't making cases, you are just talking about me, the player.  That's by definition personal, not "in-game."

I'm talking about what you the player is doing. I'm not talking about your motives as a person, which you were when you accused me of trying to belittle you and make you feel dumb.

Anyway this is all based on two posts. I think we'll have to accept that we strongly disagree and move on.

But be aware that I will not be deterred in playing the game or saying what I have to say by accusations of personal attacks or threats to leave the community.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 04:28:08 pm
it definitely seemed like ash was softclaiming SK, which is pretty weird.

If anyone thinks I'm the SK, it at the very least should cement in your mind that Ichi is the fake claimer.

He said I had no power to kill on N1, after all.

Ooooh, I forgot about that. 

Could have killed Night 1 and your kill was blocked?  Resolution would be:

Blocking
Killing
Investigation

Now SK!You submits an order to kill someone, and that kill gets blocked.  (Did SK Jailkeep you Night 1?)  Would Psychologist turn up "Unable to Kill" since you have already submitted a kill, even though it's not successful?  My guess is probably not from Psychologist wording.  Ichi?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 22, 2014, 04:28:35 pm
If the context is returned to the quote, you will see that I'm pointing out the lack of a case by jimmmmm for me to be scum.

I have not argued for you to be lynched, nor do I think you should be lynched Today, I have simply stated my opinion that I think you're scummy based on a gut feeling and past experience. I'll look at making a case on you if and when I want to lynch you.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 04:33:03 pm
I will make this point a final time.  Each claim, when taken in context, can be analyzed.

Ichi claim Psychologist on Day 2 when he felt pressured by a possible lynch.  Nothing about the setup was public at that time.

Silverspawn claimed JK when there was a claimed Psychologist and it was known there were no BP Townies.

Jimmmmmm claimed Commuter with a claimed jk, psych, and no BPs.

Joth claimed knowing all of the above.

No matter how much we argue, unless the real Commuter hasn't spoken up (and if you are hiding now, good on you and don't claim until lylo just to spite everyone), I see zero motivation or reasoning for Jimmmmm to be lying.

I completely believe joth.

That leaves the other two, and Ichi's actions have been scummier, his claim was for survival, and silver's lying plan is too bold for him to have pulled as scum.  Plus, silvers claim makes no sense in a scum context.  He created the situation where no watcher implicates him, and yet he still claimed.

(On a side note, the fact that, to me, jimmmmm is absolutely town is what makes his posts so hurtful to me.  If he was mafia/SK, his argument that twisting my words to make me scummy would make sense.  I just don't see why town does it.)

So: joth and jimmmmm are the Semi-ICs.  I believe silver over Ichi.  I believe eevee is the most likely partner.

Then we turn to the remaining VTs to catch the SK.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 04:34:25 pm
it definitely seemed like ash was softclaiming SK, which is pretty weird.

If anyone thinks I'm the SK, it at the very least should cement in your mind that Ichi is the fake claimer.

He said I had no power to kill on N1, after all.

Ooooh, I forgot about that. 

Could have killed Night 1 and your kill was blocked?  Resolution would be:

Blocking
Killing
Investigation

Now SK!You submits an order to kill someone, and that kill gets blocked.  (Did SK Jailkeep you Night 1?)  Would Psychologist turn up "Unable to Kill" since you have already submitted a kill, even though it's not successful?  My guess is probably not from Psychologist wording.  Ichi?

The role doesn't work that way.  If the SK kill was blocked, the SK still turns up guilty to psychs.

(Yuma and I worked on this role together when designing Modern Community.)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 04:35:07 pm
Okay.

Why is Eevee the most likely partner for Ichi?  What about Eevee wanting to bus Ichi now?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 04:36:20 pm
Quote from: Jimmmmm link=topic=11779.msg431544#msg431544
But be aware that I will not be deterred in playing the game or saying what I have to say by accusations of personal attacks or threats to leave the community.

Threat received.

(And nowhere have I called for you to quit.  If you think I did, I apologize, but that's a misunderstanding on your part.)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 04:37:43 pm
Okay.

Why is Eevee the most likely partner for Ichi?  What about Eevee wanting to bus Ichi now?

D1 and especially D2 voting, mostly.  The end of D2 is pretty damning, even eevee agrees.

He hopes the bus will help him.  Or he doesn't know for sure that he's bussing and wants to on the majority side.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 04:39:21 pm
Okay.

Why is Eevee the most likely partner for Ichi?  What about Eevee wanting to bus Ichi now?

D1 and especially D2 voting, mostly.  The end of D2 is pretty damning, even eevee agrees.

He hopes the bus will help him.  Or he doesn't know for sure that he's bussing and wants to on the majority side.

Well, the voting towards Hydrad makes some sense.. the voting towards Ichi is a little less convincing.  (I think.)  Once Traitor!Ichi claims Psych, scum!Eevee knows he's lying and knows he's the traitor.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 22, 2014, 04:41:02 pm
(On a side note, the fact that, to me, jimmmmm is absolutely town is what makes his posts so hurtful to me.  If he was mafia/SK, his argument that twisting my words to make me scummy would make sense.  I just don't see why town does it.)

I have said nothing hurtful, and if you are hurt then you need to approach this game with a thicker skin.

Quote from: Jimmmmm link=topic=11779.msg431544#msg431544
But be aware that I will not be deterred in playing the game or saying what I have to say by accusations of personal attacks or threats to leave the community.

Threat received.

(And nowhere have I called for you to quit.  If you think I did, I apologize, but that's a misunderstanding on your part.)

What threat?

I didn't mean you calling for me to quit - I meant you threatening to quit yourself, which you have done several times in the past and seemed to imply when you said "This is why yuma quit" (not a direct quote).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 22, 2014, 04:42:13 pm
Okay.

Why is Eevee the most likely partner for Ichi?  What about Eevee wanting to bus Ichi now?
It's nothing about Ichi. I don't think I fit very well for a partner for Ichi, I've been voting for him almost all the game. It's my unfortunate misread of hydrad that means I fit well for his partner.

I'm 100% committed into lynching Ichi today fwiw, if that helps you trust
me any more.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 22, 2014, 05:01:41 pm
Quote
Could you elaborate on the bolded part?
it basically means, I really dislike what jimmm is doing, and everything in me says "LYNCH HIM!", but that should not be what my decision is based on.

What have I done that you dislike?

a lot. man, it starts with the fact that you're painting yourself as the innocent one, which, in my opinion, is just absurd after your discussion with ash. but it really wouldn't be a good idea if i list every reason now. I don't like you. it's best to leave it at that. I'm trying not to let that influence my vote.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 22, 2014, 05:02:47 pm
I don't like you.

Thanks.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 05:03:53 pm
Okay.

Why is Eevee the most likely partner for Ichi?  What about Eevee wanting to bus Ichi now?

D1 and especially D2 voting, mostly.  The end of D2 is pretty damning, even eevee agrees.

He hopes the bus will help him.  Or he doesn't know for sure that he's bussing and wants to on the majority side.

Well, the voting towards Hydrad makes some sense.. the voting towards Ichi is a little less convincing.  (I think.)  Once Traitor!Ichi claims Psych, scum!Eevee knows he's lying and knows he's the traitor.

But does Mafia Goon!Eevee know that Ichi is lying?

I meant being on the mislynch, not the voting Ichi part.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 05:04:31 pm
I like you if you're Town.  I don't like you if you're Scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 05:05:35 pm
Okay.

Why is Eevee the most likely partner for Ichi?  What about Eevee wanting to bus Ichi now?

D1 and especially D2 voting, mostly.  The end of D2 is pretty damning, even eevee agrees.

He hopes the bus will help him.  Or he doesn't know for sure that he's bussing and wants to on the majority side.

Well, the voting towards Hydrad makes some sense.. the voting towards Ichi is a little less convincing.  (I think.)  Once Traitor!Ichi claims Psych, scum!Eevee knows he's lying and knows he's the traitor.

But does Mafia Goon!Eevee know that Ichi is lying?

I meant being on the mislynch, not the voting Ichi part.

Yes, because Mafia Goon!Eevee knows he got no add-on.  He therefore knows that the setup is Traitor Knows Mafia.  He therefore knows that ..

well I have to go back and double check.  Maybe he doesn't know until the first PR claim (Silver in this case, I think).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 22, 2014, 05:06:19 pm
I like everyone!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 05:06:44 pm
Eevee could still be SK and want to get on lynches.  He doesn't have to be Ichi's partner.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 22, 2014, 05:07:15 pm
Quote
Could you elaborate on the bolded part?
it basically means, I really dislike what jimmm is doing, and everything in me says "LYNCH HIM!", but that should not be what my decision is based on.

What have I done that you dislike?

a lot. man, it starts with the fact that you're painting yourself as the innocent one, which, in my opinion, is just absurd after your discussion with ash. but it really wouldn't be a good idea if i list every reason now. I don't like you. it's best to leave it at that. I'm trying not to let that influence my vote.

You know what, it's so, so unfair to say that you don't like how I play and you don't like me, but you won't tell me why. I'm guilty for what? Quoting ash without  keeping the whole quote in? Not being okay with him accusing me of personally attacking him?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 05:08:00 pm
I have said nothing hurtful, and if you are hurt then you need to approach this game with a thicker skin.

The first part of this quote is untrue.

I believe that you probably didn't say anything with the intention of being hurtful.  That doesn't mean the words you chose weren't hurtful anyway.

If a person is joyriding in their car and accidentally kills your dog, even if they didn't mean to, they still killed your dog, and are culpable for it.  Their intentions didn't matter, the consequences of their actions still belong to them.

The second part of your quote is probably true.  Maybe I need a thicker skin.  Or maybe outside IRL influences/issues affect how fake/in-game issues affect me.  Or maybe I'm just fried from having played so many games.  I don't really have an answer to this.

It doesn't change how I feel, or what/who made me feel it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 05:09:15 pm
I have said nothing hurtful, and if you are hurt then you need to approach this game with a thicker skin.

The first part of this quote is untrue.

I believe that you probably didn't say anything with the intention of being hurtful.  That doesn't mean the words you chose weren't hurtful anyway.

If a person is joyriding in their car and accidentally kills your dog, even if they didn't mean to, they still killed your dog, and are culpable for it.  Their intentions didn't matter, the consequences of their actions still belong to them.

The second part of your quote is probably true.  Maybe I need a thicker skin.  Or maybe outside IRL influences/issues affect how fake/in-game issues affect me.  Or maybe I'm just fried from having played so many games.  I don't really have an answer to this.

It doesn't change how I feel, or what/who made me feel it.

Achievement unlocked: Over the top analogy.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 22, 2014, 05:09:53 pm
I have said nothing hurtful, and if you are hurt then you need to approach this game with a thicker skin.

The first part of this quote is untrue.

I believe that you probably didn't say anything with the intention of being hurtful.  That doesn't mean the words you chose weren't hurtful anyway.

If a person is joyriding in their car and accidentally kills your dog, even if they didn't mean to, they still killed your dog, and are culpable for it.  Their intentions didn't matter, the consequences of their actions still belong to them.

The second part of your quote is probably true.  Maybe I need a thicker skin.  Or maybe outside IRL influences/issues affect how fake/in-game issues affect me.  Or maybe I'm just fried from having played so many games.  I don't really have an answer to this.

It doesn't change how I feel, or what/who made me feel it.

What have I said that's hurtful?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 22, 2014, 05:11:45 pm
If a person is joyriding in their car and accidentally kills your dog, even if they didn't mean to, they still killed your dog, and are culpable for it.  Their intentions didn't matter, the consequences of their actions still belong to them.

Only if they were driving carelessly and/or illegally. If the dog jumped in front of the car giving them no time to stop, it's your fault for not taking better care of your dog.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 05:21:47 pm
Anyway, Jimmm, I missed this if you answered it before: is there anything other than the knowledge-at-time-of-claiming argument that makes you think it's Silver over Ichi?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 05:23:23 pm
Okay.

Why is Eevee the most likely partner for Ichi?  What about Eevee wanting to bus Ichi now?

D1 and especially D2 voting, mostly.  The end of D2 is pretty damning, even eevee agrees.

He hopes the bus will help him.  Or he doesn't know for sure that he's bussing and wants to on the majority side.

Well, the voting towards Hydrad makes some sense.. the voting towards Ichi is a little less convincing.  (I think.)  Once Traitor!Ichi claims Psych, scum!Eevee knows he's lying and knows he's the traitor.

But does Mafia Goon!Eevee know that Ichi is lying?

I meant being on the mislynch, not the voting Ichi part.

Yes, because Mafia Goon!Eevee knows he got no add-on.  He therefore knows that the setup is Traitor Knows Mafia.  He therefore knows that ..

well I have to go back and double check.  Maybe he doesn't know until the first PR claim (Silver in this case, I think).

Right, Traitor-Knows-Mafia is inconsistent with Psychologist.  Thus, if both Mafia are Goons, they know they're in TKM, and they know the Psychologist claim if false once it comes.  Therefore Ichi must be either Traitor or SK to them.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 05:24:45 pm
Actually, even now in this scenario, scum!Eevee can't be sure Ichi isn't SK instead of Traitor, and the Traitor just claimed VT.

So, he doesn't have to be bussing. 

Way to point out that possibility, Eevee :P
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 05:33:13 pm
Actually, even now in this scenario, scum!Eevee can't be sure Ichi isn't SK instead of Traitor, and the Traitor just claimed VT.

So, he doesn't have to be bussing. 

Way to point out that possibility, Eevee :P

So the conclusion is that Eevee voting for Ichi isn't worth town points, right?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 22, 2014, 05:33:51 pm
Anyway, Jimmm, I missed this if you answered it before: is there anything other than the knowledge-at-time-of-claiming argument that makes you think it's Silver over Ichi?

It's mostly the fact that Psychologist as a fakeclaim in TKM makes absolutely no sense at the time Ichi claimed it, but also just the way silver has approached things. I'm at work at the moment so don't really have time to go back and make a case, but I'll try to when I get time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 05:35:02 pm
Also, for the record, the dog was in the fenced yard, playing fetch with his ten-year old owner, when the joyrider jumped the curb, destroyed the fence, and splattered the dog, spraying blood everywhere.  Then he just drove away.

He may not have intended to do it, but it's definitely his fault.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 22, 2014, 05:36:19 pm
Ok, I'm pretty well convinced Ichi is the lynch today. Is he at L-1?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 22, 2014, 05:36:47 pm
Also, for the record, the dog was in the fenced yard, playing fetch with his ten-year old owner, when the joyrider jumped the curb, destroyed the fence, and splattered the dog, spraying blood everywhere.  Then he just drove away.

He may not have intended to do it, but it's definitely his fault.

Um.

No.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 05:38:33 pm
Actually, even now in this scenario, scum!Eevee can't be sure Ichi isn't SK instead of Traitor, and the Traitor just claimed VT.

So, he doesn't have to be bussing. 

Way to point out that possibility, Eevee :P

So the conclusion is that Eevee voting for Ichi isn't worth town points, right?

Well, it seems to be that way, yes.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 05:39:02 pm
Ok, I'm pretty well convinced Ichi is the lynch today. Is he at L-1?

Yeah, but he did ask us not to lynch him while he was gone..
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 22, 2014, 05:40:29 pm
Okay-doke well Intent to lynch Ichi upon his return.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 05:43:11 pm
Okay, musing:

If Jimmm is town, it's Silver or Ichi.  Not considering SK kills for the moment, Mafia would need two mislynches to win.  If I'm lying!Silver or Ichi, I'm pretty much 100% sure that I'm the default lynch for tomorrow if the other guy gets mislynched today.  So, what do I do?  Well, it's better to get that VT mislynch through today, then argue for the other guy for the win tomorrow.  Or, I need to get some suspicion on Jimmmm so that he's a viable lynch tomorrow.

So, who out of Ichi/Silver has been pushing (maybe subtly) for either a VT lynch today or casting suspicion on Jimmmm?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 05:55:00 pm
Also, for the record, the dog was in the fenced yard, playing fetch with his ten-year old owner, when the joyrider jumped the curb, destroyed the fence, and splattered the dog, spraying blood everywhere.  Then he just drove away.

He may not have intended to do it, but it's definitely his fault.

Um.

No.

If you think the driver's is not at fault in this scenario, you should be a defense lawyer making late night television ads.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 05:57:25 pm
Okay, musing:

If Jimmm is town, it's Silver or Ichi.  Not considering SK kills for the moment, Mafia would need two mislynches to win.  If I'm lying!Silver or Ichi, I'm pretty much 100% sure that I'm the default lynch for tomorrow if the other guy gets mislynched today.  So, what do I do?  Well, it's better to get that VT mislynch through today, then argue for the other guy for the win tomorrow.  Or, I need to get some suspicion on Jimmmm so that he's a viable lynch tomorrow.

So, who out of Ichi/Silver has been pushing (maybe subtly) for either a VT lynch today or casting suspicion on Jimmmm?

Jimmmmm is town unless there's a real Commuter in hiding.  So, if we think Mafia is pushing a VT lynch today, Mafia is...faust?  Was he pushing the VT idea?

Silver has overtly cast suspicion on Jimmmmm, but is voting for Silver.  Ichi is just voting for Silver.

Joth publically thought through the option of a VT lynch (bigger chance of hitting scum since the SK is in that pool), but has decided on Ichi.

I'm not sure this is a point we can delve into to find scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 22, 2014, 05:59:41 pm
Also, for the record, the dog was in the fenced yard, playing fetch with his ten-year old owner, when the joyrider jumped the curb, destroyed the fence, and splattered the dog, spraying blood everywhere.  Then he just drove away.

He may not have intended to do it, but it's definitely his fault.

Um.

No.

If you think the driver's is not at fault in this scenario, you should be a defense lawyer making late night television ads.

Clearly my objection is not based on who would be at fault in that scenario, but the use of that scenario.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 06:00:39 pm
Also, for the record, the dog was in the fenced yard, playing fetch with his ten-year old owner, when the joyrider jumped the curb, destroyed the fence, and splattered the dog, spraying blood everywhere.  Then he just drove away.

He may not have intended to do it, but it's definitely his fault.

Um.

No.

If you think the driver's is not at fault in this scenario, you should be a defense lawyer making late night television ads.

Clearly my objection is not based on who would be at fault in that scenario, but the use of that scenario.

I was just expanding in response to WW's "acheivement" joke.  I wasn't being serious.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 22, 2014, 06:01:28 pm
Also, for the record, the dog was in the fenced yard, playing fetch with his ten-year old owner, when the joyrider jumped the curb, destroyed the fence, and splattered the dog, spraying blood everywhere.  Then he just drove away.

He may not have intended to do it, but it's definitely his fault.

Um.

No.

If you think the driver's is not at fault in this scenario, you should be a defense lawyer making late night television ads.

Clearly my objection is not based on who would be at fault in that scenario, but the use of that scenario.

I was just expanding in response to WW's "acheivement" joke.  I wasn't being serious.

No worries.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 06:05:02 pm
Okay, musing:

If Jimmm is town, it's Silver or Ichi.  Not considering SK kills for the moment, Mafia would need two mislynches to win.  If I'm lying!Silver or Ichi, I'm pretty much 100% sure that I'm the default lynch for tomorrow if the other guy gets mislynched today.  So, what do I do?  Well, it's better to get that VT mislynch through today, then argue for the other guy for the win tomorrow.  Or, I need to get some suspicion on Jimmmm so that he's a viable lynch tomorrow.

So, who out of Ichi/Silver has been pushing (maybe subtly) for either a VT lynch today or casting suspicion on Jimmmm?

Jimmmmm is town unless there's a real Commuter in hiding.  So, if we think Mafia is pushing a VT lynch today, Mafia is...faust?  Was he pushing the VT idea?

Silver has overtly cast suspicion on Jimmmmm, but is voting for Silver.  Ichi is just voting for Silver.

Joth publically thought through the option of a VT lynch (bigger chance of hitting scum since the SK is in that pool), but has decided on Ichi.

I'm not sure this is a point we can delve into to find scum.

Well, maybe, but I was really looking at Silver and Ichi.  Silver casting suspicion on Jimmmm may be to try to set the place for another mislynch tomorrow if Ichi is mislynched today.  Additionally, wasn't Silver arguing to consider a VT lynch as well?

Did Ichi say anything about Jimmmm, or about lynching from the VT's?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 22, 2014, 06:06:26 pm
You know what, it's so, so unfair to say that you don't like how I play and you don't like me, but you won't tell me why. I'm guilty for what? Quoting ash without  keeping the whole quote in? Not being okay with him accusing me of personally attacking him?

You asked for it. Here why I find you dislikable in this game.

Here's what I'm thinking.

Ichi was the first person to actually claim a PR. If he is scum, then the add on is Traitor Knows Mafia/SK.
If this is the case, then it's reasonable to assume that Ichi is the Traitor, since he would then have the most information and be in the best position to make a logical claim.
If Ichi was the Traitor, then he would know that we have either Column 3 or Row 3.
If we have Column 3, Psychologist is a believable claim since from a Neutral point of view with the other claims, we could have Row 4.
But if we have Row 3, there is in fact no logical fake claim, and a Psychologist claim would quickly be found out against the three real claims.

If he was instead the SK, he would know we have either Column 2, Column 3 or Row 1. This would make Psychologist a reasonable claim for scum trying to mess up ICs, but not so good for a SK trying to stay alive.

So if Ichi is scum then he didn't have enough information to know that his claim wouldn't immediately be caught out.

If, on the other hand, silver is scum and knew that the Mafia knew the Traitor, then he'd know we have either Row 4 or Column 2, neither of which would immediately out a fakeclaimed JK.

In summary, Ichi didn't have enough information to make a safe (at least safe enough to not be immediately outed) fakeclaim, while silver did.

Vote: silverspawn

This was the first thing that frustrated me. why? because the presentation is lacking so much. you just write "this and that and stuff and because of that it's things"  and expect anyone else to grind through the setup to understand it. compare that to ash's posts, which explain everything in detail, post a copy of the setup, highlight parts, and generally make it so everyone has an easy time following them. with your post, you are just forcing us to invest a considerable amount of time into understanding your points, instead of investing time yourself to explain them better.

ash, that's a big wall of posts for a very wrong conclusion.

Based on this, I believe there is only one scenario where Ichimaru Gin fakeclaims Psychologist, and that is as the Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup.

False.

If Ichi was a Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup, he knew that the Town PRs are either Commuter, JK and Detective (Column 3) or BP, JK and Bodyguard (Row 3). In the case of Column 3, which we now know is the real one if Ichi is lying, then he's fine, Psychologist is a safe claim.

But in the case of Row 3, Psychologist would be an absolutely disastrous claim. The four claims would then be BP, JK, Bodyguard and Psychologist, and there are no possible setups which have a Psychologist and two of the others - the only possible setup with these four claims is Row 3, which excludes Psychologist.

So a Traitor in TKM would absolutely not claim Psychologist without more information about what other roles are present.

ash arguing otherwise is extremely scummy.

And this. As I just said (and said before), ash's setup analysis posts were great. you don't acknowledge that at all. If I were ash, this line alone

ash, that's a big wall of posts for a very wrong conclusion.

Would have hurt my feelings. You can argue all you want that it was directed at his posts, not at him, but that doesn't change the fact that it would have legitimately hurt me. Why is the "very" in there. Why do you have to reference his posts as "a big wall of text". That's just so incredibly inappropriate. and than the last line:

ash arguing otherwise is extremely scummy

just comes off as really arrogant. and towards ash, that's saying something. Honestly, I think this is almost blatant disrespect for his skill. If you posted such an answer to one of my posts, I would not be offended, because I'm new at mafia. I think it's comparable to when I post a game analysis of dominion and then you come and say "false."

And to clarify, I'm not saying that you need to be super careful not to be insulting every time you disagree with ash on something mafia related. Don't pull this out of context. It all depends on the specific case. You could have said something like "Mh... I don't think that's right. If .... " and then made your point. And for the last line, you could have said "I actually think that ash arguing otherwise is extremely scummy." That would have conveyed an equal amount of information. And ash didn't even address you before, you really have no excuse for being so rude.

So it was a 1 in 5 chance he gets caught immediately.

Wrong. In the even of a massclaim Today, which had already been proposed, he had a 1 in 2 chance of being automatically lynched Today, and a 1 in 2 chance of being part of a 1 scum in 3. That's a 1 in 3 chance of surviving the Day. Scum don't willingly give themselves a 1 in 3 chance of surviving.

same thing again. start an answer with "wrong."

I am arguing that, AT THE TIME OF HIS CLAIM, he made the safest claim he could if he is a Traitor in TKM.

Wrong. The safest claim would be VT. Another safer option would be withhold claiming entirely, especially since (if I remember the timing rightly) I had already proposed a massclaim and probably seemed fairly likely to claim willingly.

Okay, I should have written out "safest PR fake claim he could make" instead of just claim.  But now you are just making arguments to try to belittle me, and I don't appreciate it.  You knew exactly what I mean when I wrote it in the context of my entire post.  But you pulled out a single line and make a statement such as yours to try and make me look stupid and idiotic.  Thanks.

Civility remember. Don't try to make things personal when they're not.

My point is valid - if scum he didn't have to claim a PR, and he certainly didn't have to claim when he did.

And this. What happened here is, ash posted something, he was slightly unspecific about a small thing that was clear from the context anyway, you are quoting this part and giving a response, completely unnecessary in my mind.

I like ash's response though. I think it's just as offensive as it is appropriate here, and this part

You knew exactly what I mean when I wrote it in the context of my entire post.  But you pulled out a single line and make a statement such as yours to try and make me look stupid and idiotic.  Thanks.

is just nailing it. That's exactly what happened.

And then... the first thing in your response is "Civility remember".

Just. why. i... omfg. i hate this kind of arguing. you are making a comment that's unnecessary, and easily offensive, ash answers in an honest way, and you immediately pull the civility card, just because his post happens to be more outside of the civility pledge. I actually respect people who don't try to hide themselves behind the pledge by smoothing their syntax in a way that avoids stepping over specific rules, but instead just say what they want to say. because, whether or not a post is "legal" according to a stupid civility pledge doesn't tell you anything about how offending it really is. you can hurt others plenty without stepping beyond the pledge, and in fact, I think you did that several times. Hiding behind the pledge after making these kinds of posts is just pathetic. And I'm sorry, but that's the only word that honestly reflects my feelings here.

I don't want to grind through the whole discussion, that would take a long time, let's just say that there is more.

But then, after the discussion, you are like "hey, I didn't do anything wrong, how can you side with ash here?" I already said this, I'll say it again, this is absurd. If someone is having a heated argument, how likely do you think it is that he doesn't consider himself having acted morally superior? I'm almost 100% sure that ash thought that. and yet, did he try to influence us into disliking you? no. he didn't.

Also, why are you forcing me to write this. What good could possibly come from me explaining why exactly I don't like you. I was just being honest, and it was a fact relevant to the game. Saying "I don't like you" is not an Insult, it's Honesty.

I don't back down from discussions though. You requested an answer, so here it is.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 22, 2014, 06:25:52 pm
phone posting.  no one hammer right away please. I'll be home and at my computer within the hour.

EVERYONE CHILL OUT!

seriously, there has definitely been some stuff that I think violates civility--and not from Jimmmmm either.  it looks like he and ash are good now, but now silver's starting in again.

it's OK not to try and have the last word guys.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 06:28:43 pm
phone posting.  no one hammer right away please. I'll be home and at my computer within the hour.

So you're good with a hammer as long as it isn't right away?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 22, 2014, 06:52:55 pm
People are making sense with this "silver is lining up the mislynches" thing.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 06:58:03 pm
People are making sense with this "silver is lining up the mislynches" thing.

Except if Ichi somehow flips town, we're definitely lynching Silver.  There's no other option, unless we move on to arguing that you or Jimmmmm is the liar.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 22, 2014, 06:58:36 pm
phone posting.  no one hammer right away please. I'll be home and at my computer within the hour.

So you're good with a hammer as long as it isn't right away?
Well everyone acts like it's inevitable--and I've fought my mislynch hard this entire game. So what else is there for me to do? People have the facts, they just need to make the right choice.

I feel that silver is not only scum, but also breaching civility (an issue unrelated to alignment). So that's where my vote is.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 22, 2014, 07:00:50 pm
comes off as really arrogant
Oh the irony!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 07:09:50 pm
phone posting.  no one hammer right away please. I'll be home and at my computer within the hour.

So you're good with a hammer as long as it isn't right away?
Well everyone acts like it's inevitable--and I've fought my mislynch hard this entire game. So what else is there for me to do? People have the facts, they just need to make the right choice.

I feel that silver is not only scum, but also breaching civility (an issue unrelated to alignment). So that's where my vote is.

I get that, from your perspective (either as fakeclaimed scum who needs to argue something or town) that it needs to be silverspawn who's lying.

You have to argue for Row 4 (Commuter, Detective, Psychologist) if you want to survive.  Same as Silver arguing for Column 3.

If we lynch you and you are town, we know it is Row 4 and silver is lying, and he dies.  He literally cannot line up mislynches unless you believe he's going to convince everyone to lynch another PR even though we have no more PR claims.

Like, let's play the Ichi is town game.  With the claims we have, Row 4 is the only possible explanation, right?

So on D4, what's silver's play?  We have (JK, Detective, Commuter) to marry up with a confirmed Psychologist.  That leaves Row 4 or Column 2.  Column 3 means Row 4 means Silver is lying, Column 2 means Jimmmmm is lying.

So he has to convince everyone on D4 that Jimmmmm is the liar.  But I've already shown today how it's extremely unlikely that Jimmmmm is lying.  After Ichi and Silver had claimed, if Jimmmmm is a Goon then it's MKT or 2-Shot JOAT, and he has a 50/50 chance with the Commuter claim of being caught, and that's bad.  If he's the Traitor, he has no knowledge, so he can't safely claim anything.  If he's the SK, he just claims VT.  A better fakeclaim for Jimmmmm was Watcher, which fit up to that point, unless he specifically wanted to disprove Silverspawn, at which point he claims Commuter.

None of it makes sense to me.  Jimmmmm's claim is most likely true, and Joth's even more so.  All this is to say that Silver is losing this if he's trying to get an Ichi mislynch through.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 07:11:11 pm
I forgot to mention, all of that arguing is moot on D4 for anyone because no one else claimed a PR, so unless one miraculously claims tomorrow to create another counterclaim situation, we'll know who is lying if Ichi flips town.

But really, I think Ichi is the lying claim.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 22, 2014, 07:11:15 pm
People are making sense with this "silver is lining up the mislynches" thing.

what? I don't get that post in any way. firstly, I wasn't lining up a mislynch. Did I say I wanted to lynch anyone? I don't even know who that would be. Jimmm? I thought I made it clear that I try very much not to let my feelings about his person influence the decision this game.

plus, if ichi flips town, I know 100% that Jimmmm is scum, because I know 100% that one of them is scum now. lining up a mislynch doesn't make any sense.

that is, if you were even talking about Jimmmm. If you're talking about someone else, then I don't know who that is.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 07:12:17 pm
People are making sense with this "silver is lining up the mislynches" thing.

plus, if ichi flips town, I know 100% that Jimmmm is scum, because I know 100% that one of them is scum now. lining up a mislynch doesn't make any sense.


I just explained that this is what you'd have to do, and that you'd fail.

If Ichi flipped town, and you argued that Jimmmmm is lying and scum tomorrow, where's the third PR?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 07:12:54 pm
People are making sense with this "silver is lining up the mislynches" thing.

plus, if ichi flips town, I know 100% that Jimmmm is scum, because I know 100% that one of them is scum now. lining up a mislynch doesn't make any sense.


I just explained that this is what you'd have to do, and that you'd fail.

If Ichi flipped town, and you argued that Jimmmmm is lying and scum tomorrow, where's the third PR?


Nevermind, Ichi's the third PR.  You'd be arguing for Psych/JK/Detective.  That does work if you are scum and lying.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 22, 2014, 07:14:29 pm
Quote
I just explained that this is what you'd have to do, and that you'd fail.

If Ichi flipped town, and you argued that Jimmmmm is lying and scum tomorrow, where's the third PR?

I was PPE'ing that post from you. reading it now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 22, 2014, 07:16:10 pm
Quote
That does work if you are scum and lying.
yea, i was confused for a moment. I know since the claims are finished that either Ichi or Jimmmm is scum. so, if town!ichi implicated scum!me, I'd already know that it must be Ichi, and it'd mean that I misunderstood the setup this whole time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 22, 2014, 07:19:59 pm
not that it matters much (because we have a SK, if we mislynch once we probably lost the game anyway), but if we lynch Ichi and he flips town, would you rather lynch me next or Jimmmm?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 22, 2014, 07:21:04 pm
You know what, it's so, so unfair to say that you don't like how I play and you don't like me, but you won't tell me why. I'm guilty for what? Quoting ash without  keeping the whole quote in? Not being okay with him accusing me of personally attacking him?

You asked for it. Here why I find you dislikable in this game.

Here's what I'm thinking.

Ichi was the first person to actually claim a PR. If he is scum, then the add on is Traitor Knows Mafia/SK.
If this is the case, then it's reasonable to assume that Ichi is the Traitor, since he would then have the most information and be in the best position to make a logical claim.
If Ichi was the Traitor, then he would know that we have either Column 3 or Row 3.
If we have Column 3, Psychologist is a believable claim since from a Neutral point of view with the other claims, we could have Row 4.
But if we have Row 3, there is in fact no logical fake claim, and a Psychologist claim would quickly be found out against the three real claims.

If he was instead the SK, he would know we have either Column 2, Column 3 or Row 1. This would make Psychologist a reasonable claim for scum trying to mess up ICs, but not so good for a SK trying to stay alive.

So if Ichi is scum then he didn't have enough information to know that his claim wouldn't immediately be caught out.

If, on the other hand, silver is scum and knew that the Mafia knew the Traitor, then he'd know we have either Row 4 or Column 2, neither of which would immediately out a fakeclaimed JK.

In summary, Ichi didn't have enough information to make a safe (at least safe enough to not be immediately outed) fakeclaim, while silver did.

Vote: silverspawn

This was the first thing that frustrated me. why? because the presentation is lacking so much. you just write "this and that and stuff and because of that it's things"  and expect anyone else to grind through the setup to understand it. compare that to ash's posts, which explain everything in detail, post a copy of the setup, highlight parts, and generally make it so everyone has an easy time following them. with your post, you are just forcing us to invest a considerable amount of time into understanding your points, instead of investing time yourself to explain them better.

Okay cool. Ask for more detail and I'll provide it. I didn't realise people would have a hard time understanding it.

Quote
ash, that's a big wall of posts for a very wrong conclusion.

Based on this, I believe there is only one scenario where Ichimaru Gin fakeclaims Psychologist, and that is as the Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup.

False.

If Ichi was a Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup, he knew that the Town PRs are either Commuter, JK and Detective (Column 3) or BP, JK and Bodyguard (Row 3). In the case of Column 3, which we now know is the real one if Ichi is lying, then he's fine, Psychologist is a safe claim.

But in the case of Row 3, Psychologist would be an absolutely disastrous claim. The four claims would then be BP, JK, Bodyguard and Psychologist, and there are no possible setups which have a Psychologist and two of the others - the only possible setup with these four claims is Row 3, which excludes Psychologist.

So a Traitor in TKM would absolutely not claim Psychologist without more information about what other roles are present.

ash arguing otherwise is extremely scummy.

And this. As I just said (and said before), ash's setup analysis posts were great. you don't acknowledge that at all. If I were ash, this line alone

ash, that's a big wall of posts for a very wrong conclusion.

Would have hurt my feelings. You can argue all you want that it was directed at his posts, not at him, but that doesn't change the fact that it would have legitimately hurt me. Why is the "very" in there. Why do you have to reference his posts as "a big wall of text". That's just so incredibly inappropriate. and than the last line:

ash arguing otherwise is extremely scummy

just comes off as really arrogant. and towards ash, that's saying something. Honestly, I think this is almost blatant disrespect for his skill. If you posted such an answer to one of my posts, I would not be offended, because I'm new at mafia. I think it's comparable to when I post a game analysis of dominion and then you come and say "false."

And to clarify, I'm not saying that you need to be super careful not to be insulting every time you disagree with ash on something mafia related. Don't pull this out of context. It all depends on the specific case. You could have said something like "Mh... I don't think that's right. If .... " and then made your point. And for the last line, you could have said "I actually think that ash arguing otherwise is extremely scummy." That would have conveyed an equal amount of information. And ash didn't even address you before, you really have no excuse for being so rude.

Okay, I can see where you're coming from. I was admittedly a little abrupt and I guess that came from being frustrated at not being understood after I think multiple attempts to explain myself. I guess it was also from the fact that ash had quoted my post, said "I like this type of thinking", and then basically dismissed everything I said.

Quote
So it was a 1 in 5 chance he gets caught immediately.

Wrong. In the even of a massclaim Today, which had already been proposed, he had a 1 in 2 chance of being automatically lynched Today, and a 1 in 2 chance of being part of a 1 scum in 3. That's a 1 in 3 chance of surviving the Day. Scum don't willingly give themselves a 1 in 3 chance of surviving.

same thing again. start an answer with "wrong."

Yeah okay, he was in my mind wrong. I could have beaten around the bush about it and maybe I should learn that with certain people you have to.

Quote
I am arguing that, AT THE TIME OF HIS CLAIM, he made the safest claim he could if he is a Traitor in TKM.

Wrong. The safest claim would be VT. Another safer option would be withhold claiming entirely, especially since (if I remember the timing rightly) I had already proposed a massclaim and probably seemed fairly likely to claim willingly.

Okay, I should have written out "safest PR fake claim he could make" instead of just claim.  But now you are just making arguments to try to belittle me, and I don't appreciate it.  You knew exactly what I mean when I wrote it in the context of my entire post.  But you pulled out a single line and make a statement such as yours to try and make me look stupid and idiotic.  Thanks.

Civility remember. Don't try to make things personal when they're not.

My point is valid - if scum he didn't have to claim a PR, and he certainly didn't have to claim when he did.

And this. What happened here is, ash posted something, he was slightly unspecific about a small thing that was clear from the context anyway, you are quoting this part and giving a response, completely unnecessary in my mind.

I disagree. And okay I guess I disagree with more of the post than I quoted. I firmly believe that if Ichi was scum he would have either claimed VT since there was no safe PR claim at that time, or waited for other claims before claiming himself. ash said (paraphrased) "He took a gamble by claiming a PR and Psychologist was his best option" and yeah I only quoted the second half of that so maybe I should have said, "That would have been a really terrible gamble given that he would have had no good PRs to claim and he would have had much better options than to take that unnecessary gamble. So even if I acknowledged the part I didn't quote, my response still would have effectively been the same.

Quote
I like ash's response though. I think it's just as offensive as it is appropriate here, and this part

You knew exactly what I mean when I wrote it in the context of my entire post.  But you pulled out a single line and make a statement such as yours to try and make me look stupid and idiotic.  Thanks.

is just nailing it. That's exactly what happened.

That's not what happened at all, and I take issue with you and ash presuming to know what my intentions are. I did not intentionally take ash out of context, and I still don't believe I did. And I certainly did not try to make him look stupid and idiotic.

Quote
And then... the first thing in your response is "Civility remember".

Yep. I can't remember if you were involved in Chocolate Factory, but basically I had this big argument with ash in which he repeatedly said I was personally attacking him, which I wasn't at all, and ended up making me feel like I couldn't say anything against him because he would accuse me of being personal if he did. So what I was thinking was, "Here we go again". In Chocolate Factory it was ash who brought up civility and seemed to be going in that direction again. In pointing out civility I was making the point that civility problems have tended to occur because people have wrongly assumed they are being personally attacked, not because they are actually being personally attacked.

Quote
Just. why. i... omfg. i hate this kind of arguing. you are making a comment that's unnecessary, and easily offensive, ash answers in an honest way, and you immediately pull the civility card, just because his post happens to be more outside of the civility pledge. I actually respect people who don't try to hide themselves behind the pledge by smoothing their syntax in a way that avoids stepping over specific rules, but instead just say what they want to say. because, whether or not a post is "legal" according to a stupid civility pledge doesn't tell you anything about how offending it really is. you can hurt others plenty without stepping beyond the pledge, and in fact, I think you did that several times. Hiding behind the pledge after making these kinds of posts is just pathetic. And I'm sorry, but that's the only word that honestly reflects my feelings here.

I don't want to grind through the whole discussion, that would take a long time, let's just say that there is more.

But then, after the discussion, you are like "hey, I didn't do anything wrong, how can you side with ash here?" I already said this, I'll say it again, this is absurd. If someone is having a heated argument, how likely do you think it is that he doesn't consider himself having acted morally superior? I'm almost 100% sure that ash thought that. and yet, did he try to influence us into disliking you? no. he didn't.

Moral superiority didn't cross my mind. I simply felt like I was once again being wrongfully accused of being personal, and expressing that I'm not okay with that.

Quote
Also, why are you forcing me to write this. What good could possibly come from me explaining why exactly I don't like you. I was just being honest, and it was a fact relevant to the game. Saying "I don't like you" is not an Insult, it's Honesty.

I guess we disagree on that, but I'm not going to make a big deal out of it.

Quote
I don't back down from discussions though. You requested an answer, so here it is.

I really appreciate it. We disagree on a fair bit, but that is so much better than simply saying you don't like me and leaving it at that.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 07:30:02 pm
People are making sense with this "silver is lining up the mislynches" thing.

Except if Ichi somehow flips town, we're definitely lynching Silver.  There's no other option, unless we move on to arguing that you or Jimmmmm is the liar.

That's why he has to push Jimmmmm, at least as viable for tomorrow.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 07:31:05 pm
not that it matters much (because we have a SK, if we mislynch once we probably lost the game anyway), but if we lynch Ichi and he flips town, would you rather lynch me next or Jimmmm?

You.

In the breakdown of each claim, you came second after Ichi.  Jimmmmm has some points, like you claiming to fight the IC issue for example.  There's also the whole lying since day 1 thing.

But as it stands, I believe you over Ichi right now.  I believe Jimmmmm over both of you, and I believe joth over everyone else.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 07:33:13 pm
People are making sense with this "silver is lining up the mislynches" thing.

Except if Ichi somehow flips town, we're definitely lynching Silver.  There's no other option, unless we move on to arguing that you or Jimmmmm is the liar.

That's why he has to push Jimmmmm, at least as viable for tomorrow.

Yeah, I got there eventually with my analysis.

But I don't see any of us believing him and switching to Jimmmmm.  He has to try though.

This is all hypothetical anyway.

Turn it around -- if we lynch Silver, and he's really the town JK, we've lost a lot more AND we're in no better position, that right now.  We still lynch Ichi, but lost the ability to stop a kill, which is important given we think there are two.

(Although in Row 4, there's no SK, so not AS important, I guess.)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 22, 2014, 07:39:22 pm
I am not lining up a Jimmm lynch. Where is this coming from? I mean, it doesn't matter, but why are you saying this?  You should know me well enough by now to know that I separate these things. My post towards Jimmm wasn't about his alignment. I know that either Jimmm or Ichi is scum. It doesn't make any sense for me to argue in a hypothetical case of lynched!town!Ichi, because I know at that point that Jimmm is scum. Please stop saying that I'm trying to line up a Jimmm lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 07:48:08 pm
I am not lining up a Jimmm lynch. Where is this coming from? I mean, it doesn't matter, but why are you saying this?  You should know me well enough by now to know that I separate these things. My post towards Jimmm wasn't about his alignment. I know that either Jimmm or Ichi is scum. It doesn't make any sense for me to argue in a hypothetical case of lynched!town!Ichi, because I know at that point that Jimmm is scum. Please stop saying that I'm trying to line up a Jimmm lynch.

You're just agreeing with us.  You'll have to convince us that Jimmmmm is scum if Ichi turns town.

The point is, if one of you is scum, you know you're in that situation.  This could affect your thoughts, and hence your posts .
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: silverspawn on October 22, 2014, 07:53:31 pm
You'll have to convince us that Jimmmmm is scum if Ichi turns town.

uh, no? I don't have to do that. I'm totally fine with being lynched if we mislynch Ichi today. I think we're at lylo anyway, so it doesn't make a difference. plus, I said earlier in the day, if one town dies, you can lynch me.

I just don't like it when you say I do X when I really don't do X.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 22, 2014, 11:21:23 pm
ok, I'm back. intent to hammer TONIGHT in the next hour.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 11:30:49 pm
Cool.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 22, 2014, 11:40:06 pm
You'll have to convince us that Jimmmmm is scum if Ichi turns town.

uh, no? I don't have to do that. I'm totally fine with being lynched if we mislynch Ichi today. I think we're at lylo anyway, so it doesn't make a difference. plus, I said earlier in the day, if one town dies, you can lynch me.

I just don't like it when you say I do X when I really don't do X.

Huh?  Makes no sense. If you're town, mislynching someone then lynching you is basically a loss.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start
Post by: ashersky on October 22, 2014, 11:53:54 pm
So...no vote count in like 7 pages, so here's the latest.
 
silverspawn (1): Jimmmmm, Ichi
Ichimaru Gin (4): ashersky, Eevee, silverspawn, witherweaver (L-1)
Eevee (2): jotheonah, faust

Not Voting (0):

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.  The deadline for Day 3 will be Monday, October 27 at 5 pm forum time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 22, 2014, 11:56:26 pm
Vote Count 3.5
 
silverspawn (2): Jimmmmm, Ichimaru Gin
Ichimaru Gin (4): ashersky, Eevee, silverspawn, witherweaver (L-1)
Eevee (2): jotheonah, faust

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.  The deadline for Day 3 will be Monday, October 27 at 5 pm forum time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 23, 2014, 12:07:22 am
ok, I'm back. intent to hammer TONIGHT in the next hour.
gotcha.

I think town can still win this even with my mislynch, so that's something. Sorry I wasn't able to convince you guys of the truth.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 23, 2014, 12:19:21 am
ok, I'm back. intent to hammer TONIGHT in the next hour.
gotcha.

I think town can still win this even with my mislynch, so that's something. Sorry I wasn't able to convince you guys of the truth.

Well, he has like 2 minutes if he's going to lynch in the next hour.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: jotheonah on October 23, 2014, 12:23:46 am
vote: Ichimaru Gin
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 23, 2014, 12:25:16 am
Well you guys guessed right. I did manage to hold out but in the end, you caught me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 23, 2014, 12:27:30 am
Faust for Ichi partner Eevee for SK.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 23, 2014, 12:28:18 am
Also, to be clear--my disagreements with silver's behavior had nothing to do with alignment. I felt he was out of line regardless of his or my own alignment. I wouldn't use something like that as a manipulation.

This also let's you guys know that there's a 100% chance of there being a SK in the setup--which should make things pretty interesting.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 23, 2014, 12:30:02 am
Well you guys guessed right. I did manage to hold out but in the end, you caught me.

Man, I love being right.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 23, 2014, 12:31:11 am
silver-ash-witherweaver/faust-Eevee-Ichi

This is awesome.  This is a "should lynch" to "shouldn't lynch" list.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 23, 2014, 12:32:12 am
Well you guys guessed right. I did manage to hold out but in the end, you caught me.

Man, I love being right.
Your analysis of each claimants POV was spot on--so kudos for that. I probably would have done better to not start the game off with a huge amount of suspicion on me, but I thought it would blow over. It ended up sticking though.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 23, 2014, 12:33:40 am
Well you guys guessed right. I did manage to hold out but in the end, you caught me.

Man, I love being right.
Your analysis of each claimants POV was spot on--so kudos for that. I probably would have done better to not start the game off with a huge amount of suspicion on me, but I thought it would blow over. It ended up sticking though.

So did you really think you were hammered? 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 23, 2014, 12:35:05 am
Well you guys guessed right. I did manage to hold out but in the end, you caught me.

Man, I love being right.
Your analysis of each claimants POV was spot on--so kudos for that. I probably would have done better to not start the game off with a huge amount of suspicion on me, but I thought it would blow over. It ended up sticking though.

So did you really think you were hammered?
Yes. I did. And my anger was real--because I really thought I had been derphammered and killed right then. So definitely a "you killed me for the wrong reasons" moment. It would have really ticked me off if I had died D1 as scum to a derphammer.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 23, 2014, 12:37:06 am
Dang, I had the right idea, I wish I would have played it better.  Though in hindsight, if you really were PR you probably would have said it when you thought you were mislynched
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 23, 2014, 12:39:25 am
Dang, I had the right idea, I wish I would have played it better.  Though in hindsight, if you really were PR you probably would have said it when you thought you were mislynched
Exactly. In hindsight, I would have claimed a PR right then--especially since I did probably know more about the setup than anyone else at the time.

I really thought you guys wouldn't have believed me though--because you know, everyone claims town. So I was really surprised when all the arguments started cropping up that you guys would have believed me if I had claimed then instead of continuing to rant. That is still really counter to my own reads.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 23, 2014, 12:43:51 am
Whii!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 23, 2014, 12:45:16 am
I mean... Look at every PR we mislynched.  They always say it.. The thing that threw me off is that you never said you were town or were mislynched. Like you were pissed you were lynched, but not that you were mislynched.  So I wanted some scenario where you making that statement (or neglecting to make it) would come up.  The best I could think of was asking about your flip.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on October 23, 2014, 01:01:45 am
I mean... Look at every PR we mislynched.  They always say it.. The thing that threw me off is that you never said you were town or were mislynched. Like you were pissed you were lynched, but not that you were mislynched.  So I wanted some scenario where you making that statement (or neglecting to make it) would come up.  The best I could think of was asking about your flip.
I'm pretty sure I used the word mislynched a lot--but it seems like my lack of the claim D1 really did hurt me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 23, 2014, 01:03:36 am
Dang, I had the right idea, I wish I would have played it better.  Though in hindsight, if you really were PR you probably would have said it when you thought you were mislynched

The mail-mi deadline no lynch is a great example of how this plays out with actual town PRs.

I hadn't made the connection to his reaction on D1's fake lynch for some reason.  That was another point against him.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 23, 2014, 04:58:32 am
Well... at least I won't have to go through all of the arguments now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 23, 2014, 05:02:23 am
thread locked!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 23, 2014, 05:10:47 am
Final Vote Count
 
silverspawn (2): Jimmmmm, Ichimaru Gin
Ichimaru Gin (5): ashersky, Eevee, silverspawn, witherweaver, jotheonah
Eevee (1): faust

Ichimaru Gin has been lynched!  He was  Anna Thurman, a Mafia Traitor.

I will be going v/la this weekend, so if at all possible, please submit night actions within the next 24 hours, and I will open up D4 Friday morning.  If not, then I will be able to open up the game Saturday morning, it would just be sub-optimal for me.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 24, 2014, 08:09:33 am
Concerning Civility

As stated in the civility pledge, mafia is a game of deceit and arguments.  Misquoting, partial quoting, taking things out of context, and taking offense when this occurs are all well within the bounds of the game.  As I was observing the game yesterday I did not feel as though I needed to intercede as a mod.  That being stated, I have had some time to reflect not only on things from this game but also from other games and have decided that as a mod I will not tolerate accusations of players stepping beyond the bounds of the civility pledge within the thread.  Do not say "I believe X overstepped the civility pledge" (or something to that effect) within the game thread.  I consider this behavior to be a personal attack rather than a reaction to what another player has posted because you are not attacking the post but rather the player behind the post by saying that he was intentionally disrespectful or rude to you.  You may find things personally disrespectful or rude that were not meant that way at all.  That is why we have moderators.  So instead, please PM me and I will address your concerns accordingly.  What this does not mean is that you cannot react strongly or use strong language or do any of that.  You still need to get your point across.  You can just do it without personally accusing someone of breaking the civility pledge.

Remember, we are all responsible to maintain civility on this forum, not just the people playing the game.  Therefore, if anyone watching the game believes that someone has stepped beyond the bounds of the civility pledge, PM me and I will address the situation.

If you wish to discuss this further, please do so here (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7695.0).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 24, 2014, 08:10:32 am
Bang! Crash! Flavor! It was a crazy night. Puddles of water surrounding people lying on the ground after a water gun fight went terribly wrong. Paper airplanes crashing through the sky breaking the windows. As the crew woke up in the morning, they noticed that both silverspawn and jotheonah were missing. Strange. I could have sworn that they both wandered off into a dark alley in an extremely dangerous neighborhood. Who would have thought that they both wouldn't have made it out. I mean, in all the movies at least one person survives to tell everyone else about the horrible things that happened to their buddy. I guess this just isn't a movie.

silverspawn has been killed! He was Donald, the Town Jailkeeper

jotheonah has been killed! He was Elsie, the Town Detective.

I am leaving in a few hours to go visit my [new] girlfriend for the weekend! I am super excited! You won't be getting vote counts while I am away! And the day starts early! If you lynch anyone before Sunday evening you won't get a flip until I get home Sunday evening! Unless mail-mi shows up!


Thread Unlocked!

Vote Count 4.0

Not Voting (5): Eevee, ashersky, faust, witherweaver, Jimmmmm

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. The deadline for Day 4 will be Tuesday, November 4, at 5:00 PM forum time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 24, 2014, 08:25:57 am
Okay, so last Mafia is now a Roleblocker.  He cannot Roleblock and kill, right?  So no Roleblock last night, so Silver Jailkept someone.  I believe he would not Jailkeep Ash.. he did not do Joth, obviously.  Jimm is unlikely, I'm pretty certain he wouldn't do me either.  So his target would either be Eevee or Faust, meaning I was wrong about one of them.

So Ash for SK?  Fits only having one kill Night 1.

Also:

Quote
Flavor will indicate if a player was killed by multiple factions, but will not indicate which alignment performed specific kills.

I'll check Night 1 flavor.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 24, 2014, 08:28:21 am
There is no Flavor for Night 1.

A Drowned Kernel has died! He was Allison Holston, a Vanilla Townie!

Day 2 start!
Thread unlocked!


Vote Count 2.0

Not Voting (9): Jimmmmm, faust, Witherweaver, ashersky, Ichimaru Gin, Eevee, Hydrad, silverspawn, jotheonah

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends on Wednesday, October 15, 7:30 PM FT.

e: Could you retroactively add flavor to the Day starts?  According to the setup, we should have the information on whether or not ADK was double targeted or single targeted:

Quote
Flavor will indicate if a player was killed by multiple factions, but will not indicate which alignment performed specific kills.


Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 24, 2014, 08:34:46 am
Didn't he pretty much agree to jailkeep me?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 24, 2014, 08:35:53 am
Didn't he pretty much agree to jailkeep me?

Yeah, but he may he may have changed his mind. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 24, 2014, 08:37:03 am
But I think that's most likely, which makes it Ash/Faust.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 24, 2014, 08:39:53 am
Didn't he pretty much agree to jailkeep me?

Yeah, but he may he may have changed his mind.
I mean, since the kills went through I'm pretty sure he didn't, but it would be better if he was more explicit so I would be cleared.

Wither I think is cleared from being mafia and not particularly implicated for SK,
and Jimm is an IC so I think both faust and ash make for great lynches. I think faust is the mafia and ash is the SK.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 24, 2014, 08:46:24 am
It's easier to find the last mafia as we can analyze interactions, so I think we should try to do that. After all, despite not probably being mafia, WW could still be the SK, other than ash being jailkept N1 either as the target or the killer, we really have no evidence towards anyone for the SK. Well, there is the lack of kills when I was jailed N2, but I of course know I'm town and I hope silver saying he'd jail is enough evidence for you guys to trust me.

So, I'm in favor of Vote: faust. I said this yesterday already, he fits the best for Hydrad's partner. If this succeeds, we'll have a 3 person lylo tomorrow, a great climax for a great great game.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 24, 2014, 09:04:35 am
In case it isn't clear, if ADK was double killed, Ash is cleared.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 24, 2014, 09:05:55 am
Also, can someone verify that my assumption that last Mafia cannot both Roleblock and Kill last night is correct?  Is there an exception if you're the last one alive?

If not, Eevee is not necessarily (pseudo) cleared as Silver could have been Roleblocked.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 24, 2014, 09:12:26 am
In case it isn't clear, if ADK was double killed, Ash is cleared.
Oh, true!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 24, 2014, 09:17:38 am
Well, short of Silver getting Roleblocked Night 1. We don't know who Ichi targeted Night 1.  Possibly Ash, since he claimed to target him with Psych and could have been worried about Watcher exposing a lie.  We don't know Night 2, either, but best guess is Joth, since Joth got no result.  Only other explanation is Eevee being SK and using 1-shot commute.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 24, 2014, 09:43:41 am
I would assume block and kill is allowed.

It would be good to know.  The kill flavor things is a good catch.  No way scum points that out, I think.

I'm looking at eevee still, based on day 2.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 24, 2014, 09:44:58 am
Faust is a conundrum.  Definitely scary as sK.

Finding hydrad's partner should be the easier task anyway.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 24, 2014, 09:49:30 am
I think what faust did regarding Hydrad is almost more damning my vehement opposion of the lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 24, 2014, 09:51:18 am
You know, going all out guns blazing against the lynch versus quietly trying to deflect it to someone else.

It's not super advantageous for scum to tie yourself to your partner the way I tied myself to Hydrad.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 24, 2014, 09:56:29 am
Faust also the only one not voting for Ichi, and fairly not present yesterday with a lot of comments about needing to read and think.  I think Faust is a good candidate for Mafia.

Though, there is still ambiguity from Mafia member as to whether Ichi was SK or Traitor, so we have to be somewhat careful about connections there.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 24, 2014, 09:56:45 am
You know, going all out guns blazing against the lynch versus quietly trying to deflect it to someone else.

It's not super advantageous for scum to tie yourself to your partner the way I tied myself to Hydrad.

Can you cite?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 24, 2014, 10:01:59 am
You know, going all out guns blazing against the lynch versus quietly trying to deflect it to someone else.

It's not super advantageous for scum to tie yourself to your partner the way I tied myself to Hydrad.

Can you cite?
Sure, when I get to my computer, couple hours max.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 24, 2014, 03:12:15 pm
Okay, posting these in chronological order. If you want to reread IG's claim and Hydrad's lynch, just click on the first post I quote.


I still think lynching WW is a good option here. I want to vote Jimmmmm for super lurking and not contributing, but sadly, that's not an alignment tell. joth could be scum, a little afraid of that - the stalling also supports his cause, because it means we will likely lynch Ichi. So yeah, I'd vote any of these I guess. I like WW best though.

For reference, the vote count at that time:
Vote Count 2.3

Witherweaver (1): faust
Jimmmmm (2): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin
Hydrad (2): silverspawn, Witherweaver
Ichimaru Gin (1): jotheonah
ashersky (1): Jimmmmm

Not Voting (2): ashersky, Eevee

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends on Wednesday, October 15, 7:30 PM FT.

silver reacting to the vote count:
vote: Ichimaru Gin
faust reacting to silver's vote:
Yeah, let's start some wagons.

Vote: Jimmmmm

this could honestly be a scum slip. I'm not sure it is, but it could be. I already thought you were scum before though.

This is scummy... no way that was a scumslip.

Vote: silverspawn let's try this.

Want to lynch: WW, silverspawn, Jimmmmm

Would lynch: Hydrad, joth, ash

Won't lynch: Eevee, IG

This is after IG claimed:
Well, that was unnecessary.

Vote: Jimmmmm for now.

And then nothing until ash and Jimm guide us to correctly lynching Hydrad.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 24, 2014, 03:22:46 pm
Yeah, Faust looks all around bad.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 24, 2014, 03:48:56 pm
e: Could you retroactively add flavor to the Day starts?  According to the setup, we should have the information on whether or not ADK was double targeted or single targeted:

Quote
Flavor will indicate if a player was killed by multiple factions, but will not indicate which alignment performed specific kills.

Read the quote again carefully, then think about the flavor that was included/not included.  You have your answer.


(to be abundantly clear, flavor is not required to show when a player was killed by a single faction)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 24, 2014, 03:51:35 pm
Okay, so I am concluding that ADK was not killed by multiple factions, so Ashersky is not cleared.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 24, 2014, 04:00:57 pm
Hydrad will be choosing a mod color and doing votecounts for you guys this weekend.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 26, 2014, 06:39:00 am
Crickets?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 26, 2014, 06:39:27 am
Where is everyone but me and WW!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 26, 2014, 07:42:55 am
Jimmmmm, thought?

We also need to explain two no kills Night 2 and Joth being RBd.  We know now traitor wasn't shot
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 26, 2014, 08:15:07 am
Assuming Ichi targeted Joth ..

(1) Eevee is SK, Mafia targeted Eevee
(2) Eevee not SK:
(a) Mafia+SK targeted Eevee,
(b) Mafia target Eevee, SK did not shoot for ability
(c) Mafia target SK, who commuted or used BP shot
(d) SK Jailkept (RB) Mafia

Also, SK could have Jailkept Joth instead of Ichi.  But SK would probably not choose to use JK shot .  Unless they wanted to obfuscate setup.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 26, 2014, 10:25:14 am
But I think that's most likely, which makes it Ash/Faust.

You are very quick with jumping to conclusions here. We don't even know yet if the Roleblocker can block and kill, right?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 26, 2014, 11:13:23 am
I think what faust did regarding Hydrad is almost more damning my vehement opposion of the lynch.

"Almost more damning"? That's a very interesting choice of words you're using here.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 26, 2014, 11:15:27 am
Faust also the only one not voting for Ichi, and fairly not present yesterday with a lot of comments about needing to read and think.  I think Faust is a good candidate for Mafia.

Though, there is still ambiguity from Mafia member as to whether Ichi was SK or Traitor, so we have to be somewhat careful about connections there.

That is highly unfair. Reread. I was contributing a lot in the earlier stages of the game, then life was busy, and I said I didn't have time and asked you to wait. But you went ahead and lynched Ichi.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 26, 2014, 11:17:12 am
Assuming Ichi targeted Joth ..

(1) Eevee is SK, Mafia targeted Eevee
(2) Eevee not SK:
(a) Mafia+SK targeted Eevee,
(b) Mafia target Eevee, SK did not shoot for ability
(c) Mafia target SK, who commuted or used BP shot
(d) SK Jailkept (RB) Mafia

Also, SK could have Jailkept Joth instead of Ichi.  But SK would probably not choose to use JK shot .  Unless they wanted to obfuscate setup.

Err... why is Eevee nowhere mafia in these scenarios?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 26, 2014, 11:18:05 am
I can't believe you're talking and talking and noone has done this:

<b>Can the Mafia Roleblocker block and kill in the same night?</b>
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 26, 2014, 11:18:44 am
Bah.

Can the Mafia Roleblocker block and kill in the same night?</b>
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 26, 2014, 11:19:01 am
I fail horribly :D
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 26, 2014, 12:31:41 pm
I can't believe you're talking and talking and noone has done this:

<b>Can the Mafia Roleblocker block and kill in the same night?</b>

I asked this already.  And yes, I forgot the Eevee mafia scenarios.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 26, 2014, 12:32:37 pm
Ash thought mafia could role block and kill.  I'm not sure.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 26, 2014, 01:33:43 pm
I can't believe you're talking and talking and noone has done this:

<b>Can the Mafia Roleblocker block and kill in the same night?</b>

I asked this already.  And yes, I forgot the Eevee mafia scenarios.

Well yes, you asked us, you didn't ask e. And while I'm sure one of us knows the answer, I'm afraid he won't tell us.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 26, 2014, 05:27:56 pm
But you went ahead and lynched Ichi.

This sounds...upset.

He was mafia, you know.  It's a good thing we "went ahead" and lynched him.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 26, 2014, 06:28:21 pm
But you went ahead and lynched Ichi.

This sounds...upset.

He was mafia, you know.  It's a good thing we "went ahead" and lynched him.

I just don't like it when I ask people to wait and they don't.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 26, 2014, 06:29:58 pm
But you went ahead and lynched Ichi.

This sounds...upset.

He was mafia, you know.  It's a good thing we "went ahead" and lynched him.

I just don't like it when I ask people to wait and they don't.

I mean, okay...but...

He was mafia, man.  Regardles of you wanting people to wait, given the result, you ought to be happier.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 26, 2014, 06:34:28 pm
But you went ahead and lynched Ichi.

This sounds...upset.

He was mafia, you know.  It's a good thing we "went ahead" and lynched him.

I just don't like it when I ask people to wait and they don't.

I mean, okay...but...

He was mafia, man.  Regardles of you wanting people to wait, given the result, you ought to be happier.

Well, it's been a few days, maybe the effect has worn off. "You ought to be happier", what kind of accusation is that anyway? We lost two IC-PRs tonight and are in a MyLo-ish situation. I'm sorry if I'm not all sunshine.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 26, 2014, 06:47:06 pm
You just seem unneccarily unhappy with the result of the lynch yesterday.

I mean, you can't be THAT unhappy about it, so it ends up feeling fake because, why would he be angry we lynched mafia?  If he's town, he should be happy.  If he's mafia, he should act happy.  If he's SK, he should be happy.

So, given in any scenario, you should seem happy to us, the fact that you are pushing this unhappy grumpyface seems intentional.  For what reason, though?  Possible to ensure consistency from one day to the next?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 26, 2014, 10:19:53 pm
My hypothesis: he is mafia, that's why.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 27, 2014, 04:48:39 am
You just seem unneccarily unhappy with the result of the lynch yesterday.

I mean, you can't be THAT unhappy about it, so it ends up feeling fake because, why would he be angry we lynched mafia?  If he's town, he should be happy.  If he's mafia, he should act happy.  If he's SK, he should be happy.

So, given in any scenario, you should seem happy to us, the fact that you are pushing this unhappy grumpyface seems intentional.  For what reason, though?  Possible to ensure consistency from one day to the next?

Yes, I am obviously doing everything to be consistent. I still think Ichi is town, btw.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 27, 2014, 04:49:37 am
My hypothesis: he is mafia, that's why.

Yes, you really seem sure about this. Can you explain to me why you don't think a combination of WW/ash is possible?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 27, 2014, 09:05:34 am
My hypothesis: he is mafia, that's why.

Yes, you really seem sure about this. Can you explain to me why you don't think a combination of WW/ash is possible?
WW spearheaded the Hydrad lynch, ash ultimately enabled for Jimmm to hammer it. You tried to deflect us from it. To boot, you didn't exactly seem enthusiastic about lynching IG yesterday. You just fit for mafia easily the best, and any one of you could be the SK just the same, which makes you hands down the best lynch.

I guess ash being jailed N1 is slight evidence towards him being the SK given we are missing kills? Anyways, we can cross that bridge tomorrow, today I feel very good lynching you would win us an extra day.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 27, 2014, 10:02:42 am
Eevee, do you really want to make a potential game-losing move with such hand-wavy argumentation?
Title: Re: Mafia ?? : Silo Mafia - Signups Open - Setup Coming Soon
Post by: faust on October 27, 2014, 10:06:26 am
- Serial Killer wins when all other players have been eliminated. If a scenario exists where a Serial Killer and a Mafia the following will be followed:
   * If Bernard is the last mafia alive, Mafia will win.
   * If Senator Thurman or Anna Thurman is the last mafia alive, the SK will win.

Hydrad had the flavor name Bernard. This means mafia needs to SK dead in order to win.

Well, this makes me think Eevee is more likely to be SK than to be mafia. Mafia doesn't want to get me killed, they want the SK dead. Then again, Eevee could be Mafia who thinks I'm the SK, but doesn't say so because it's scummy.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 27, 2014, 10:29:32 am
Eevee, do you really want to make a potential game-losing move with such hand-wavy argumentation?
What do you mean! It's tangible evidence of others actively getting scum lynched while you try to deflect away to town players.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 27, 2014, 10:53:38 am
Eevee, do you really want to make a potential game-losing move with such hand-wavy argumentation?
What do you mean! It's tangible evidence of others actively getting scum lynched while you try to deflect away to town players.

You know, there's a thing called "bussing". Now really, I understand that you would think I'm scum, but is it so out of the question for you that someone else is mafia that you aren't even willing to consider it?

Either you are town, and this is some DoP-like endgame scenario, or you are scum trying to deflect away from your own lack of successful scumhunting.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 27, 2014, 10:57:26 am
How do you know he hasn't considered it?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 27, 2014, 10:58:15 am
How do you know he hasn't considered it?

If he had, I would have expected him to share his thoughts on the topic.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 27, 2014, 10:59:52 am
SK!Eevee could of course have used a Strongman kill on silver/joth, if we assume that mafia can't block and kill.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 27, 2014, 11:00:04 am
Eevee, do you really want to make a potential game-losing move with such hand-wavy argumentation?
What do you mean! It's tangible evidence of others actively getting scum lynched while you try to deflect away to town players.

You know, there's a thing called "bussing". Now really, I understand that you would think I'm scum, but is it so out of the question for you that someone else is mafia that you aren't even willing to consider it?

Either you are town, and this is some DoP-like endgame scenario, or you are scum trying to deflect away from your own lack of successful scumhunting.
Of course I'm willing to consider! You just aren't giving me anything to consider.
Jimmm - IC.

WW - Instrumental in driving the Hydrad wagon early, also revived it after it died once. I haven't reread yesterday, but I felt his reads lined up with mine and that he was a contributor in getting IG lynched.

ash - Hammered Hydrad when Jimmm was also at L-1, which is very unmafialike. Less towny yesterday due to the fight with Jimmm, but again, I haven't reread the day so I don't even remember if he helped us lynching IG or not.

faust - Tried to derail the Hydrad wagon multiple times. Avoided the IG lynch yesterday and argued against it.

If you want me to consider ash or WW, you have to make a case and explain why. Just vaguely saying "bussing is a thing" does not a convincing argument make.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 27, 2014, 11:00:34 am
How do you know he hasn't considered it?

If he had, I would have expected him to share his thoughts on the topic.
I have!! Neither ash or WW fit for Hydrad's partner, you do to the dot.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 27, 2014, 11:02:38 am
As far as the SK, I have a better feeling of WW for town because he's been agreeing with me a lot, but that's bad reasoning. Ash was jailed N1 and we are missing kills, but he would make sense for a target too, so that's a small piece of evidence. If faust isn't mafia, there is no reason he couldn't be the SK.

Frankly, I think the SK is hard to find. He has no partners and all the reason to scumhunt just as town does, so interactions or helpfulness aren't helping us. What we can do today is try to kill mafia, if we hit the SK as a consolation price, that's just dandy, but if we manage to lynch mafia we'll just have to hope we pick right tomorrow.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 27, 2014, 11:02:56 am
SK!Eevee could of course have used a Strongman kill on silver/joth, if we assume that mafia can't block and kill.

Ah.  Good point.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 27, 2014, 11:03:14 am
WW, ash, Jimm, am I crazy? Isn't faust incredibly scummy here?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 27, 2014, 11:03:23 am
Eevee, do you really want to make a potential game-losing move with such hand-wavy argumentation?
What do you mean! It's tangible evidence of others actively getting scum lynched while you try to deflect away to town players.

You know, there's a thing called "bussing". Now really, I understand that you would think I'm scum, but is it so out of the question for you that someone else is mafia that you aren't even willing to consider it?

Either you are town, and this is some DoP-like endgame scenario, or you are scum trying to deflect away from your own lack of successful scumhunting.
Of course I'm willing to consider! You just aren't giving me anything to consider.
Jimmm - IC.

WW - Instrumental in driving the Hydrad wagon early, also revived it after it died once. I haven't reread yesterday, but I felt his reads lined up with mine and that he was a contributor in getting IG lynched.

ash - Hammered Hydrad when Jimmm was also at L-1, which is very unmafialike. Less towny yesterday due to the fight with Jimmm, but again, I haven't reread the day so I don't even remember if he helped us lynching IG or not.

faust - Tried to derail the Hydrad wagon multiple times. Avoided the IG lynch yesterday and argued against it.

If you want me to consider ash or WW, you have to make a case and explain why. Just vaguely saying "bussing is a thing" does not a convincing argument make.

Point out the "multiple times" I have presumably tried to derail the Hydrad wagon.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 27, 2014, 11:03:45 am
As far as the SK, I have a better feeling of WW for town because he's been agreeing with me a lot, but that's bad reasoning. Ash was jailed N1 and we are missing kills, but he would make sense for a target too, so that's a small piece of evidence. If faust isn't mafia, there is no reason he couldn't be the SK.

Frankly, I think the SK is hard to find. He has no partners and all the reason to scumhunt just as town does, so interactions or helpfulness aren't helping us. What we can do today is try to kill mafia, if we hit the SK as a consolation price, that's just dandy, but if we manage to lynch mafia we'll just have to hope we pick right tomorrow.

Well you were Jailed Night 2 and we're missing two kills, and you're not that great of a target.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 27, 2014, 11:04:15 am
WW, ash, Jimm, am I crazy? Isn't faust incredibly scummy here?

I've checked my horoscope and I'm most likely voting for Faust today.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 27, 2014, 11:04:47 am
Silver jailed me last night and there were two kills though. Would my strongman go through if I was in jail?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 27, 2014, 11:05:35 am
Silver jailed me last night and there were two kills though. Would my strongman go through if I was in jail?

I strongly suppose that. What good would the Strongman be otherwise?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 27, 2014, 11:06:07 am
You never even commented on this post, faust. I think it's pretty self-explanatory, highlights WW and ash being anti-mafia and you being pro-mafia.


Okay, posting these in chronological order. If you want to reread IG's claim and Hydrad's lynch, just click on the first post I quote.


I still think lynching WW is a good option here. I want to vote Jimmmmm for super lurking and not contributing, but sadly, that's not an alignment tell. joth could be scum, a little afraid of that - the stalling also supports his cause, because it means we will likely lynch Ichi. So yeah, I'd vote any of these I guess. I like WW best though.

For reference, the vote count at that time:
Vote Count 2.3

Witherweaver (1): faust
Jimmmmm (2): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin
Hydrad (2): silverspawn, Witherweaver
Ichimaru Gin (1): jotheonah
ashersky (1): Jimmmmm

Not Voting (2): ashersky, Eevee

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends on Wednesday, October 15, 7:30 PM FT.

silver reacting to the vote count:
vote: Ichimaru Gin
faust reacting to silver's vote:
Yeah, let's start some wagons.

Vote: Jimmmmm

this could honestly be a scum slip. I'm not sure it is, but it could be. I already thought you were scum before though.

This is scummy... no way that was a scumslip.

Vote: silverspawn let's try this.

Want to lynch: WW, silverspawn, Jimmmmm

Would lynch: Hydrad, joth, ash

Won't lynch: Eevee, IG

This is after IG claimed:
Well, that was unnecessary.

Vote: Jimmmmm for now.

And then nothing until ash and Jimm guide us to correctly lynching Hydrad.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 27, 2014, 11:07:01 am
Sigh. I fear the main reason I'm getting lynched here is that I was not around when the lynches happened D1 and D2.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 27, 2014, 11:08:39 am
Sigh. I fear the main reason I'm getting lynched here is that I was not around when the lynches happened D1 and D2.
Well it's pretty damning when we lynch scum and you aren't there to help. It's not like you tried to push us towards Hydrad when you were present either. When silver said we needed more wagons and voted for IG, you promptly reacted by voting for Jimmm.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 27, 2014, 11:09:21 am

What is there to comment? All you do is selectively choosing posts where I voted to make me look scummy. I don't have the slightest idea how this highlights ash and WW as being anti-mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 27, 2014, 11:09:44 am
Sigh. I fear the main reason I'm getting lynched here is that I was not around when the lynches happened D1 and D2.
Well it's pretty damning when we lynch scum and you aren't there to help. It's not like you tried to push us towards Hydrad when you were present either. When silver said we needed more wagons and voted for IG, you promptly reacted by voting for Jimmm.

Yeah, it's damning when I sleep or am busy. Thanks.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 27, 2014, 11:10:56 am

What is there to comment? All you do is selectively choosing posts where I voted to make me look scummy. I don't have the slightest idea how this highlights ash and WW as being anti-mafia.
That's all your posts! The rest of us were working to get IG or Hydrad lynched, and you tried to derail to multiple town targets and then disappearead. Literally all your votes were for town (or at least not mafia), despite there being two mafia players heavily wagoned.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 27, 2014, 11:11:33 am
Sigh. I fear the main reason I'm getting lynched here is that I was not around when the lynches happened D1 and D2.
Well it's pretty damning when we lynch scum and you aren't there to help. It's not like you tried to push us towards Hydrad when you were present either. When silver said we needed more wagons and voted for IG, you promptly reacted by voting for Jimmm.

Yeah, it's damning when I sleep or am busy. Thanks.
No, it's damning you were suspecting silverspawn, WW, Jimmm and joth, while the rest of us tried to move the lynch towards Hydrad and/or IG.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 27, 2014, 11:12:51 am

What is there to comment? All you do is selectively choosing posts where I voted to make me look scummy. I don't have the slightest idea how this highlights ash and WW as being anti-mafia.
That's all your posts! The rest of us were working to get IG or Hydrad lynched, and you tried to derail to multiple town targets and then disappearead. Literally all your votes were for town (or at least not mafia), despite there being two mafia players heavily wagoned.

Yes, sure, you were all working together to get scum lynched, and I stood brooding in the corner.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 27, 2014, 11:15:34 am
You are noticeably absent from both our scum lynches. WW is on both, so is ash. In a nutshell, this is why I think you are the third mafia.

Final Vote Count

Jimmmmm (4): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin, faust, Eevee
Hydrad (5): Witherweaver, jotheonah, silverspawn, ashersky, Jimmmmm

Hydrad has been lynched! He was Bernard, a Mafia Goon

Everyone please check in tonight by sending me your original role PM from yuma as well as any night actions you may have to perform



Final Vote Count
 
silverspawn (2): Jimmmmm, Ichimaru Gin
Ichimaru Gin (5): ashersky, Eevee, silverspawn, witherweaver, jotheonah
Eevee (1): faust

Ichimaru Gin has been lynched!  He was  Anna Thurman, a Mafia Traitor.

I will be going v/la this weekend, so if at all possible, please submit night actions within the next 24 hours, and I will open up D4 Friday morning.  If not, then I will be able to open up the game Saturday morning, it would just be sub-optimal for me.

Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 27, 2014, 11:18:19 am
Look, I am sorry my reads weren't better. Of course you all could believe me more had I played better. But that is not the case, and if you aren't willing to believe that town can be wrong and scum can bus, we're going to lose here.

I don't think I can convince Eevee, and hey! I guess from a town!Eevee point of view, this line of thought makes sense. The rest of us can't know that Eevee isn't scum. It's very likely that he is, based on PR results.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 27, 2014, 11:30:34 am
If you don't believe me, look at possible scenarios.

Let us for a moment assume a mafia team of me/Hydrad/Ichi, joined by a SK that is either ash or WW.

Night 1, there is one blocked kill. It is not the mafia kill that is blocked unless mafia targeted ashersky or WW. This is the final vote count of that day:

Vote Count 1.FINAL

Ichimaru (1): Jimmmmm,
Witherweaver (1): faust,
Eevee (3): Witherweaver, ashersky, XerxesPraelor
XerxesPraelor (4): Ichimaru Gin, Eevee, Hydrad, silverspawn, jotheonah, ADK
 
Not Voting (0):

With 11 alive it took 6 to lynch.

(note how the alternate wagon to Xerxes was Eevee, and look who's on Xerxes - Ichi and Hydrad. I forgot about that)

Okay, so if mafia targeted ashersky... I guess it makes some sense. Let's believe that for a moment.

Then comes Night 2. There is no death. Assuming Eevee is town, this means that someone shot Eevee (or SK used town role/mafia shot SK, but I'm not willing to swallow that). Who would shoot Eevee? He was vehemently opposed to the Hydrad wagon, shooting him doesn't really make sense. Why not joth, ashersky, silver... anyone? The SK could shoot Ichi and would be guaranteed to hit a town PR or opposing scum, why not do that?

Ultimately, I don't think a scenario in which Eevee is town makes sense.

Vote: Eevee
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 27, 2014, 11:40:25 am
Jimmmm could have been shot, and commuted.  SK could have used an ability instead of shooting; that ability could have blocked a Mafia kill. 

I still think Eevee is more likely SK than Mafia.  I was going more Town because of the Roleblocking/Jailkeeping issue, but there is the Strongman thing.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 27, 2014, 11:42:45 am
Jimmmm could have been shot, and commuted.  SK could have used an ability instead of shooting; that ability could have blocked a Mafia kill. 

I still think Eevee is more likely SK than Mafia.  I was going more Town because of the Roleblocking/Jailkeeping issue, but there is the Strongman thing.

I think Jimmmmm implicated not having use his shot (we could have him confirm, I guess). I can't imagine why a SK would want to use an ability.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 27, 2014, 11:44:26 am
Jimmm absolutely shouldn't confirm if he's used his shot!!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 27, 2014, 11:45:50 am
Jimmmm could have been shot, and commuted.  SK could have used an ability instead of shooting; that ability could have blocked a Mafia kill. 

I still think Eevee is more likely SK than Mafia.  I was going more Town because of the Roleblocking/Jailkeeping issue, but there is the Strongman thing.

I think Jimmmmm implicated not having use his shot (we could have him confirm, I guess). I can't imagine why a SK would want to use an ability.

Yeah.. they may have strongly suspected being targeted (shooting or investigated) that night for whatever reason. 

I didn't get the impression that Jimmmm implied one way or the other.

Jimmm, want to share?

Edit: Yeah I can see the point, but maybe it could help us lynch correctly today. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 27, 2014, 11:46:23 am
I guess he can decide whether he should or not.

Regardless, I'd like him to share his thoughts on things.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 27, 2014, 11:49:03 am
I fear if Eevee is not mafia, this game is already lost. So that's kind of my only hope right now.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 27, 2014, 11:50:52 am
Jimmmm could have been shot, and commuted.  SK could have used an ability instead of shooting; that ability could have blocked a Mafia kill. 

I still think Eevee is more likely SK than Mafia.  I was going more Town because of the Roleblocking/Jailkeeping issue, but there is the Strongman thing.

I think Jimmmmm implicated not having use his shot (we could have him confirm, I guess). I can't imagine why a SK would want to use an ability.

Yeah.. they may have strongly suspected being targeted (shooting or investigated) that night for whatever reason. 

I didn't get the impression that Jimmmm implied one way or the other.

Jimmm, want to share?

Edit: Yeah I can see the point, but maybe it could help us lynch correctly today.

Remember this thing where Jimmmmm told us how he thought about fake-claiming Detective? I got the impression that his plan only really made sense if he could still commute.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 27, 2014, 12:05:43 pm
I don't think we should speculate. I echo being interested in what Jimm thinks, though.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 27, 2014, 01:08:37 pm
Eevee just wondering. You were originally on the IG wagon. I don't know if you've stated your ideas on the wagon. did you get a towny vibe from it or scummy?
Honestly, I don't remember voting for IG. The whole "lynched or not lynched" episode happened when I was offline. I'm pretty sure my vote at the time was just a pressure vote, vote to make him feel the heat and give us information.

I'm a big proponent of lynch mafia not scum. Just because IG appears scummy, we don't have to lynch him if the scum narrative doesn't add up. I'm not sure it does here. One big issue I have is why wouldn't he fakeclaim if he was scum? The other is that everyone is so gung-ho against him.

Honestly, maybe he is scummier than your average person, but not my ideal lynch choise for today if we are only factoring in the chance to hit scum. There is of course the fact that anyone who has been near lynched is going to be an informational lynch, were he to flip scum we could more or less absolve the first attackers for example.

So, I don't know. I find the wagon, especially joth, a bit over-eager.

This was my first reason for voting for Eevee.  I still find this post really scummy.  I can see this post int he context of Eevee thinking Ichi might be his unknown partner. 

Also, sidenote.  We decided that after Ichi claimed, Mafia team can only know Ichi is lying, not that he isn't SK.  How does Mafia react to this?  Do they conclude SK doesn't make sense so conclude Ichi is their partner, or do they maintain doubt?  Faust concluded Mafia knows Ichi is Traitor and would not bus him.  In particular, Faust was arguing Eevee being not Mafia (which he is now arguing the other way).  What was it that changed your mind about that, Faust?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 27, 2014, 02:31:37 pm
That is a scummy post WW, but I'm sure you noticed how my views changed from that.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 27, 2014, 02:34:14 pm
That is a scummy post WW, but I'm sure you noticed how my views changed from that.

"Wow, that was really scummy, I better be more careful in the future!" :P
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 27, 2014, 02:41:53 pm
That is a scummy post WW, but I'm sure you noticed how my views changed from that.

"Wow, that was really scummy, I better be more careful in the future!" :P
"Wow, sadly my read on IG wavered at times. Good thing I saw the light before it was too late, though."
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 27, 2014, 02:42:50 pm
"Too late" to earn town cred?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 27, 2014, 02:59:07 pm
"Too late" to earn town cred?
Come on. I went after him very hard already the day before he got lynched, and yesterday I stayed on the wagon right from when it was formed.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 27, 2014, 03:00:14 pm
Let's talk Ash bussing Hydrad viability.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 27, 2014, 03:00:33 pm
He was decidedly null on him for a long time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 27, 2014, 03:04:36 pm
It sounds so crazy. Why would he not just go for Jimm?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 27, 2014, 03:11:32 pm
It sounds so crazy. Why would he not just go for Jimm?

Yeah, that's the problem.  But maybe for this?  Ash has a pretty long history of not bussing his partners (which he has brought up before).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 27, 2014, 03:12:31 pm
It sounds so crazy. Why would he not just go for Jimm?

Yeah, that's the problem.  But maybe for this?  Ash has a pretty long history of not bussing his partners (which he has brought up before).
I feel you are grasping at straws. Sure, it could be ash, of course. Is that more likely than it being faust? No.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 27, 2014, 03:15:53 pm
It sounds so crazy. Why would he not just go for Jimm?

Yeah, that's the problem.  But maybe for this?  Ash has a pretty long history of not bussing his partners (which he has brought up before).
I feel you are grasping at straws. Sure, it could be ash, of course. Is that more likely than it being faust? No.

That's kind of the point of going through this exercise. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 27, 2014, 03:22:18 pm
Faust Day 1 reads post:

Doing a complete reread.

Reads from this, town to scum:

faust

silverspawn - VT claim. I kind of don't think he would do that if he had a partner, so if he's scum, it's either Traitor or SK. That's enough to make me not want to lynch him today.
Ichimaru - suggests silverspawn is lying. I somehow don't think scum does that... thinks maybe, but doesn't post stuff like that. It's not good for town to post it, but I think it's more likely to come from town. His defensiveness and unwillingness to claim does not point towards him being scum for me.

joth - the vote on Ichi was sheepy. Seems a bit careless and I believe that's more likely to come from town.
ADK - starts SK hunting. Overall his posts seem like genuine scumhunting to me though.
Eevee - after all the Ichi craziness, says his flip will provide information... that is always a somewhat scummy motive for a lynch. Sheeps my WW case, which isn't a huge red flag, because obviously it was a really good case. Overall, I agree with him a lot. Slight town.

Jimmmmm - vote silver because VT claim is "not good". That is the only thing I put down. Not good, much lurking.
hydrad - asks what JK means, some scum points for that. Not much else, pretty null overall.

ashersky - says he has a plan, then doesn't. Seems a bit like emulating his town meta here. It also takes a long time for him to get into real scumhunting, not sure what that means.

xerxes - is super careless, almost in a mail-mi way sheeping people (and admitting that it's sheeping)... this could be fake. His L-1 on Ichi looks constructed.
witherweaver - lots of jokes early. In general, I don't quite buy his suspicion of Ichi, and a lot of his posts feel like he's twisting people's words instead of looking for scum. Gets defensive when people (hydrad) revisit my case on him.

So WW and Xerxes seem like the best options here. Don't want to lynch ashersky really, but I hope we'll get more from him when his VLA ends. I could do Jimmmmm or Hydrad. Other lynches are not so good.

I'm keeping my vote on WW for now, to see where this is going. Willing to change to Xerxes later.

Hydrad comfortably in the middle "some scum points".  Could do him, but he's not in any danger of getting lynched (no one even voted for him Day 1, I think).  Top scum reads are two town players (myself and Xerxes), other option is conftown!Jimmm. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 27, 2014, 03:31:58 pm
Well, that one post by Eevee was just about the only thing I found scummy about him Day 1.  Have to look more at Hydrad interactions form Day 2. (Those should be more informative, since Ichi knew Mafia but Mafia did not know Ichi.)  At any rate, I'm having trouble seeing Eevee as Mafia.

Request prod on Jimmmmmmm

Also, early Day 2:

On wagon NK could mean more scum off.

Off wagon of XP was:
Witherweaver, ashersky, XerxesPraelor,  Jimmmmm, Faust.

Eevee was on the XP wagon (with scum Ichi, Hydrad and town Silver, Joth, ADK).

Technically Ash was correct since one of {Ash, Faust} has to be scum, but I think Ash was more thinking Mafia than SK. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 27, 2014, 04:24:05 pm
Vote Count 4.1

Eevee (1): faust

Not Voting (5): Eevee, ashersky, faust, witherweaver, Jimmmmm

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. The deadline for Day 4 will be Tuesday, November 4, at 5:00 PM forum time.

Can the Mafia Roleblocker block and kill in the same night?</b>
yes.  I couldn't find yuma's original intent concerning the issue anywhere in the setup info or mod qt, so I made the executive decision to play it that way.

Request prod on Jimmmmmmm
sent
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 27, 2014, 04:28:10 pm
Yeah I'm here. We still have time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 27, 2014, 04:33:01 pm
Yeah I'm here. We still have time.

I know, I just want to know what you think of things.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 27, 2014, 06:39:42 pm
Let's actually break it down.

Eevee, ashersky, faust, witherweaver, Jimmmmm

Jimmmmm is confirmed town.

For him, it's a 50% chance of hitting a scum player.  For the rest of us, 66.6666666% chance.

Only possible scum: {Eevee, ashersky, faust, witherweaver}

For me, only possible scum: {Eevee, faust, witherweaver}

I have a strong town read on WW (so does everyone else, which is scary, and of course an SK can be a town read since they're kind of like a town vig that turns on us), which leaves Eevee and Faust.

I strongly believed Eevee was mafia since the end of D2, given Eevee's role in the Hydrad/Jimmmmm day end.
Faust comes out looking very bad considering the end of D3 and his vehement defense of Ichimaru.

I see arguments for both.

Eevee looks slightly townier after last night, because I do think Silver would have jailed him given his reads.  However, we don't know if the strongman came into play or the roleblock came into play.  There's the small chance Silver jailed me again, I guess, given the missing kill on N1 theory.  I don't see him jailing WW or faust and it wouldn't work on Jimmmmm.

Still, just looking at the players who can be scum and I'm looking at Eevee/faust.

The other non-Jimmmmms can do the same thing.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 28, 2014, 08:39:22 am
Can the Mafia Roleblocker block and kill in the same night?</b>
yes.  I couldn't find yuma's original intent concerning the issue anywhere in the setup info or mod qt, so I made the executive decision to play it that way.

Okay. This makes all theories with "Eevee can't be Mafia because he would have been blocked" moot, yes?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 28, 2014, 09:41:32 am
Can the Mafia Roleblocker block and kill in the same night?</b>
yes.  I couldn't find yuma's original intent concerning the issue anywhere in the setup info or mod qt, so I made the executive decision to play it that way.

Okay. This makes all theories with "Eevee can't be Mafia because he would have been blocked" moot, yes?

Yes.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 28, 2014, 11:03:32 am
Eevee is voting for me, right? The vote count is wrong.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 28, 2014, 12:19:59 pm
On ashersky's request:

I think Eevee must be scum. I can find no other reasonable explanation for what happened N2. It doesn't help that he acted plenty scummy towards us lynching Ichi ("I will support this lynch to prove that I am town"), and he came out strongly in defense of Hydrad.

WW looks townie, but SKs can look townie for sure.

ash is more implicated as scum through the missing night kill N1 combined with him being jailed. I also felt that his effort to lynch Ichi over silver yesterday could easily be a grab for town cred. The silver lies scenario was one where we had no SK, yes? So the SK would know that it's false.

Overall, it's Eevee >>>> ash > WW for me. If Eevee doesn't flip mafia, I might want to reconsider ash/WW, otherwise my vote is Eevee for mafia, ash for SK.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 28, 2014, 02:35:29 pm
I didn't push Ichi to gain town cred. I pushed him to lynch mafia which I thought would also help clear my name.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 28, 2014, 06:44:47 pm
I didn't push Ichi to gain town cred. I pushed him to lynch mafia which I thought would also help clear my name.

What's the difference between "clearing your name" and "gaining towncred", exactly?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 28, 2014, 06:46:25 pm
I didn't push Ichi to gain town cred. I pushed him to lynch mafia which I thought would also help clear my name.

What's the difference between "clearing your name" and "gaining towncred", exactly?

On a pure theory level, I think "[attempting to] gain towncred" is something one does regardless of current thoughts on his alignment while "[attempting to] clear your name" is a specific action taken after being suspected.

In Eevee's case, none.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 29, 2014, 03:22:42 am
I didn't push Ichi to gain town cred. I pushed him to lynch mafia which I thought would also help clear my name.

What's the difference between "clearing your name" and "gaining towncred", exactly?
I'm just saying contributing to a successfull mafia lynch like that is something that makes you less likely to be mafia. You know, this is why I don't think ash or WW are mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 29, 2014, 03:33:04 am
Eevee just wondering. You were originally on the IG wagon. I don't know if you've stated your ideas on the wagon. did you get a towny vibe from it or scummy?
Honestly, I don't remember voting for IG. The whole "lynched or not lynched" episode happened when I was offline. I'm pretty sure my vote at the time was just a pressure vote, vote to make him feel the heat and give us information.

I'm a big proponent of lynch mafia not scum. Just because IG appears scummy, we don't have to lynch him if the scum narrative doesn't add up. I'm not sure it does here. One big issue I have is why wouldn't he fakeclaim if he was scum? The other is that everyone is so gung-ho against him.

Honestly, maybe he is scummier than your average person, but not my ideal lynch choise for today if we are only factoring in the chance to hit scum. There is of course the fact that anyone who has been near lynched is going to be an informational lynch, were he to flip scum we could more or less absolve the first attackers for example.

So, I don't know. I find the wagon, especially joth, a bit over-eager.

This was my first reason for voting for Eevee.  I still find this post really scummy.  I can see this post int he context of Eevee thinking Ichi might be his unknown partner. 

Also, sidenote.  We decided that after Ichi claimed, Mafia team can only know Ichi is lying, not that he isn't SK.  How does Mafia react to this?  Do they conclude SK doesn't make sense so conclude Ichi is their partner, or do they maintain doubt?  Faust concluded Mafia knows Ichi is Traitor and would not bus him. In particular, Faust was arguing Eevee being not Mafia (which he is now arguing the other way).  What was it that changed your mind about that, Faust?
the bolded is another example of faust's opportunistic behavior. as far as i can tell he never replied to this.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 29, 2014, 04:01:54 am
Recent thought...all of eevee's untowniness is out of character with scum!eevee.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 29, 2014, 06:57:52 am
Eevee just wondering. You were originally on the IG wagon. I don't know if you've stated your ideas on the wagon. did you get a towny vibe from it or scummy?
Honestly, I don't remember voting for IG. The whole "lynched or not lynched" episode happened when I was offline. I'm pretty sure my vote at the time was just a pressure vote, vote to make him feel the heat and give us information.

I'm a big proponent of lynch mafia not scum. Just because IG appears scummy, we don't have to lynch him if the scum narrative doesn't add up. I'm not sure it does here. One big issue I have is why wouldn't he fakeclaim if he was scum? The other is that everyone is so gung-ho against him.

Honestly, maybe he is scummier than your average person, but not my ideal lynch choise for today if we are only factoring in the chance to hit scum. There is of course the fact that anyone who has been near lynched is going to be an informational lynch, were he to flip scum we could more or less absolve the first attackers for example.

So, I don't know. I find the wagon, especially joth, a bit over-eager.

This was my first reason for voting for Eevee.  I still find this post really scummy.  I can see this post int he context of Eevee thinking Ichi might be his unknown partner. 

Also, sidenote.  We decided that after Ichi claimed, Mafia team can only know Ichi is lying, not that he isn't SK.  How does Mafia react to this?  Do they conclude SK doesn't make sense so conclude Ichi is their partner, or do they maintain doubt?  Faust concluded Mafia knows Ichi is Traitor and would not bus him. In particular, Faust was arguing Eevee being not Mafia (which he is now arguing the other way).  What was it that changed your mind about that, Faust?
the bolded is another example of faust's opportunistic behavior. as far as i can tell he never replied to this.

Well, PoE. Since everyone here (except Jimmmmm and me) voted Ichi, scum must have bussed, right?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 29, 2014, 07:12:04 am
Eevee just wondering. You were originally on the IG wagon. I don't know if you've stated your ideas on the wagon. did you get a towny vibe from it or scummy?
Honestly, I don't remember voting for IG. The whole "lynched or not lynched" episode happened when I was offline. I'm pretty sure my vote at the time was just a pressure vote, vote to make him feel the heat and give us information.

I'm a big proponent of lynch mafia not scum. Just because IG appears scummy, we don't have to lynch him if the scum narrative doesn't add up. I'm not sure it does here. One big issue I have is why wouldn't he fakeclaim if he was scum? The other is that everyone is so gung-ho against him.

Honestly, maybe he is scummier than your average person, but not my ideal lynch choise for today if we are only factoring in the chance to hit scum. There is of course the fact that anyone who has been near lynched is going to be an informational lynch, were he to flip scum we could more or less absolve the first attackers for example.

So, I don't know. I find the wagon, especially joth, a bit over-eager.

This was my first reason for voting for Eevee.  I still find this post really scummy.  I can see this post int he context of Eevee thinking Ichi might be his unknown partner. 

Also, sidenote.  We decided that after Ichi claimed, Mafia team can only know Ichi is lying, not that he isn't SK.  How does Mafia react to this?  Do they conclude SK doesn't make sense so conclude Ichi is their partner, or do they maintain doubt?  Faust concluded Mafia knows Ichi is Traitor and would not bus him. In particular, Faust was arguing Eevee being not Mafia (which he is now arguing the other way).  What was it that changed your mind about that, Faust?
the bolded is another example of faust's opportunistic behavior. as far as i can tell he never replied to this.

Well, PoE. Since everyone here (except Jimmmmm and me) voted Ichi, scum must have bussed, right?

Not if you are mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 29, 2014, 07:13:17 am
Yeah, no. But I get that you are forced to change a read, sure.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 29, 2014, 07:24:09 am
Vote Count 4.2

Eevee (1): faust

Not Voting (4): Eevee, ashersky, witherweaver, Jimmmmm

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. The deadline for Day 4 will be Tuesday, November 4, at 5:00 PM forum time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 29, 2014, 07:41:27 am
Vote: faust
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 29, 2014, 02:27:12 pm
Not if you are mafia.

Wow, for some reason I didn't consider that possibility.  ::)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 29, 2014, 02:34:00 pm
Eevee just wondering. You were originally on the IG wagon. I don't know if you've stated your ideas on the wagon. did you get a towny vibe from it or scummy?
Honestly, I don't remember voting for IG. The whole "lynched or not lynched" episode happened when I was offline. I'm pretty sure my vote at the time was just a pressure vote, vote to make him feel the heat and give us information.

I'm a big proponent of lynch mafia not scum. Just because IG appears scummy, we don't have to lynch him if the scum narrative doesn't add up. I'm not sure it does here. One big issue I have is why wouldn't he fakeclaim if he was scum? The other is that everyone is so gung-ho against him.

Honestly, maybe he is scummier than your average person, but not my ideal lynch choise for today if we are only factoring in the chance to hit scum. There is of course the fact that anyone who has been near lynched is going to be an informational lynch, were he to flip scum we could more or less absolve the first attackers for example.

So, I don't know. I find the wagon, especially joth, a bit over-eager.

This was my first reason for voting for Eevee.  I still find this post really scummy.  I can see this post int he context of Eevee thinking Ichi might be his unknown partner. 

Also, sidenote.  We decided that after Ichi claimed, Mafia team can only know Ichi is lying, not that he isn't SK.  How does Mafia react to this?  Do they conclude SK doesn't make sense so conclude Ichi is their partner, or do they maintain doubt?  Faust concluded Mafia knows Ichi is Traitor and would not bus him. In particular, Faust was arguing Eevee being not Mafia (which he is now arguing the other way).  What was it that changed your mind about that, Faust?
the bolded is another example of faust's opportunistic behavior. as far as i can tell he never replied to this.

Well, PoE. Since everyone here (except Jimmmmm and me) voted Ichi, scum must have bussed, right?

Then why is it Eevee and not Ash?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 29, 2014, 02:35:06 pm
And what about the other point.  Any chance Mafia was banking on Ichi being SK?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 29, 2014, 03:49:45 pm
Then why is it Eevee and not Ash?

1. ash made the Hydrad lynch happen, AND ash made the Ichi lynch happen. I doubt there would be that much bussing.
2. No kill N2 with Eevee being blocked is way more damning than only one kill N1 with ash being blocked.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 29, 2014, 03:51:20 pm
And what about the other point.  Any chance Mafia was banking on Ichi being SK?

No way that claim makes sense for a SK. The chances for survival till the end with a claimed PR are probably <1%. So I think mafia knew. ash and Eevee are both clever enough to figure this out.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 29, 2014, 03:52:20 pm
And what about the other point.  Any chance Mafia was banking on Ichi being SK?

No way that claim makes sense for a SK. The chances for survival till the end with a claimed PR are probably <1%. So I think mafia knew. ash and Eevee are both clever enough to figure this out.

That's not all of the question.  They also have to consider whether Ichi would reach the same conclusion as SK.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 29, 2014, 03:53:41 pm
And what about the other point.  Any chance Mafia was banking on Ichi being SK?

No way that claim makes sense for a SK. The chances for survival till the end with a claimed PR are probably <1%. So I think mafia knew. ash and Eevee are both clever enough to figure this out.

That's not all of the question.  They also have to consider whether Ichi would reach the same conclusion as SK.

How is this question relevant though?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 29, 2014, 04:00:01 pm
Because the question is whether they would know Ichi is the Traitor or SK.  Saying claiming is not the correct SK play doesn't answer the question unless you know Ichi will make the correct play.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 29, 2014, 04:06:51 pm
Because the question is whether they would know Ichi is the Traitor or SK.  Saying claiming is not the correct SK play doesn't answer the question unless you know Ichi will make the correct play.

Again, to clarify my question, how is it helpful for us to know whether scum thought Ichi was the SK or their partner?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 29, 2014, 05:15:25 pm
Because the question is whether they would know Ichi is the Traitor or SK.  Saying claiming is not the correct SK play doesn't answer the question unless you know Ichi will make the correct play.

Again, to clarify my question, how is it helpful for us to know whether scum thought Ichi was the SK or their partner?

Okay not for you.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 29, 2014, 05:49:44 pm
And what about the other point.  Any chance Mafia was banking on Ichi being SK?

No way that claim makes sense for a SK. The chances for survival till the end with a claimed PR are probably <1%. So I think mafia knew. ash and Eevee are both clever enough to figure this out.

Jimmmmm was arguing that there was "no way" mafia make that claim.  We see how that turned out.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 29, 2014, 05:52:38 pm
And what about the other point.  Any chance Mafia was banking on Ichi being SK?

No way that claim makes sense for a SK. The chances for survival till the end with a claimed PR are probably <1%. So I think mafia knew. ash and Eevee are both clever enough to figure this out.

Jimmmmm was arguing that there was "no way" mafia make that claim.  We see how that turned out.

Well, fair point. I still don't see how this question is anything but purely academic right now. Who looks worse if we assume mafia assumed that Ichi was SK instead of Traitor?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 29, 2014, 05:59:15 pm
And what about the other point.  Any chance Mafia was banking on Ichi being SK?

No way that claim makes sense for a SK. The chances for survival till the end with a claimed PR are probably <1%. So I think mafia knew. ash and Eevee are both clever enough to figure this out.

Jimmmmm was arguing that there was "no way" mafia make that claim.  We see how that turned out.

Well, fair point. I still don't see how this question is anything but purely academic right now. Who looks worse if we assume mafia assumed that Ichi was SK instead of Traitor?

Well, you look better, right?  Because then Ash/Eevee didn't bus.  Or at least were only bussing with X% confidence.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 29, 2014, 06:15:03 pm
And what about the other point.  Any chance Mafia was banking on Ichi being SK?

No way that claim makes sense for a SK. The chances for survival till the end with a claimed PR are probably <1%. So I think mafia knew. ash and Eevee are both clever enough to figure this out.

Jimmmmm was arguing that there was "no way" mafia make that claim.  We see how that turned out.

Well, fair point. I still don't see how this question is anything but purely academic right now. Who looks worse if we assume mafia assumed that Ichi was SK instead of Traitor?

Well, you look better, right?  Because then Ash/Eevee didn't bus.  Or at least were only bussing with X% confidence.

Hm, that's right, I guess. You'd have to wonder if mafia would want to lynch the SK in this case... I think rather not? Which, uh, would mean that I don't actually look better. So that was a bad argument, forget everthing you just read.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on October 30, 2014, 01:48:40 pm
Guys, should we start to think about putting down votes? People aren't rereading, there is no new information coming in, I don't see anything to gain by letting the game stagnate.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 30, 2014, 01:50:43 pm
I'm going to Reread day 2.  Still want Jimmmmm input.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 30, 2014, 04:47:40 pm
There's still plenty of time. I want to reread WW, who is the only one I don't really have an opinion on. Hopefully that happens some time during the weekend.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 31, 2014, 05:10:19 am
Vote Count 4.2

Eevee (1): faust
faust (1): Eevee

Not Voting (3): ashersky, witherweaver, Jimmmmm

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. The deadline for Day 4 will be Tuesday, November 4, at 5:00 PM forum time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 31, 2014, 06:59:23 am
Note that scum may want to quickhammer. No hasty moves from here on.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 31, 2014, 08:00:59 am
Well, one scum quick hammering another isn't the worst thing.  It gives us possible lylo tomorrow with a scummy quick hammer.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 31, 2014, 08:01:31 am
Well, one scum quick hammering another isn't the worst thing.  It gives us possible lylo tomorrow with a scummy quick hammer.

Then again, from my perspective, scum are voting for each other, unless I'm wrong on WW.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 31, 2014, 08:21:44 am
Well, one scum quick hammering another isn't the worst thing.  It gives us possible lylo tomorrow with a scummy quick hammer.

Well, one scum hammering town is bad though.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 31, 2014, 08:53:31 am
Well, one scum quick hammering another isn't the worst thing.  It gives us possible lylo tomorrow with a scummy quick hammer.

Well, one scum hammering town is bad though.

Yes.  But it's actually bad for scum, too, I think.

If both scum are alive going into the night, it seems like a game of chicken, since other than Jimmmmm, no one's fully cleared.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 31, 2014, 10:09:25 am
Well, one scum quick hammering another isn't the worst thing.  It gives us possible lylo tomorrow with a scummy quick hammer.

Well, one scum hammering town is bad though.

Yes.  But it's actually bad for scum, too, I think.

If both scum are alive going into the night, it seems like a game of chicken, since other than Jimmmmm, no one's fully cleared.

Hmmm, maybe. I was thinking mafia could just roleblock SK, so they might want to hammer... but of course that requires them to know who the SK is.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on October 31, 2014, 10:09:41 am
ash, where do you stand on me vs Eevee right now?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on October 31, 2014, 02:41:53 pm
The Rules:

5. Prods of missing players will be issued automatically after 24 hours of no activity (VLA posts in the official VLA thread negate automatic prods). A prodded player has 24 hours to respond or risks replacement. A player who has been prodded 3 times is subject to replacement without further notice.

Games usually get very lax about inactivity in later days, and I have done the same thing.  However, after 4 days of inactivity, this is a second prod on Jimmmmm.  One more prod will result in a mod-kill.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on October 31, 2014, 05:46:48 pm
ash, where do you stand on me vs Eevee right now?

I was very confident in my mafia read on eevee, from the end of day 2 on.  So that left you vs. Ww for SK.

I think I need to reread Ww to make sure that town read is right, I guess.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on October 31, 2014, 07:33:38 pm
Responding to prod. I will have some time this weekend.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on October 31, 2014, 08:02:05 pm
Good.  Mod kill would be, like, catastrophic for us.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on November 01, 2014, 08:23:08 am
Rereading Witherweaver:

The first thing of notice he does is presuring silver to reveal the reason for his fakeclaim. That's not a SK thing to do I think, since it puts attention on you and if silver was indeed mafia, gives them a reason to kill you.

He then continues to push Ichi, which is null, as he couldn't have known his alignment as scum. There's the whole "what will you flip" issue, which I wouldn't expect from a SK for similar reasons.

The beginning of D2 features WW going SK hunting, which is a scummy thing to do. Then he votes for Hydrad (due to PoE mostly)... I think that vote can easily come from a partner, there was not yet any danger of him being lynched. He presses him more strongly during the course of the game though...

WW's initial reaction to Ichi's claim is "I think I believe him". Mafia would of course know that Ichi is lying. And mafia doesn't want Ichi dead. Ultimately, I can see mafia!WW thinking "Hydrad is surely going down, better for me to push him hard". He would want his other partner alive though. Seeing his reactions to the mass claim will be interesting.

Okay, what do we have... he supports lynching Eevee to clear silver (which is good, as long as Eevee gets lynched, noone needs to lynch Ichi). But then, he settles on Ichi, which is a very dangerous thing to do. Of course multiple players thought WW was town, maybe he thought he could win on his own... but why take the risk? Okay, now he unvotes again. He then seems undecided for a long time, suspecting Eevee, silver, Ichi. Also tries to throw Jimmmmm into the discussion when people have settled on Ichi vs silver. He puts Ichi to L-1, maybe assumes he can't keep him alive without looking very bad the next day. After joth's intent to hammer, WW thinks about silver again.

The last thing to note is the WW/Ichi exchange after Ichi was lynched. This looks townie for WW, but could be Ichi trying to make his partner look townie.

In the end, I think WW is much more likely to be mafia than to be SK. Which means we lynch Eevee, and based on his alignment, it should be possible to find out who of ash/WW is the remaining scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 01, 2014, 08:27:32 am
I think you're missing that I was the only one that wanted Hydrad lynched for quite  a while.  I don't think it would have happened without me.  You can say bussing, but the narrative for that is a stretch at best. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on November 01, 2014, 08:33:02 am
I think you're missing that I was the only one that wanted Hydrad lynched for quite  a while.  I don't think it would have happened without me.  You can say bussing, but the narrative for that is a stretch at best.

Yeah, each mafia narrative for someone that is not Eevee requires some sort of stretch. Which is why I want Eevee lynched.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 01, 2014, 08:34:33 am
Well, you and Eevee.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on November 01, 2014, 08:41:09 am
Well, you and Eevee.

For me, the mafia narrative for myself requires the biggest stretch...
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 01, 2014, 01:51:38 pm
I was just pointing out what the dilemma is for the rest of us.  You and Eevee have it easiest.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on November 01, 2014, 03:12:46 pm
I was just pointing out what the dilemma is for the rest of us.  You and Eevee have it easiest.

I see that, but I think the facts should speak for Eevee as mafia. I don't see a good narrative for no kill N2 otherwise.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on November 01, 2014, 03:30:02 pm
I was just pointing out what the dilemma is for the rest of us.  You and Eevee have it easiest.

I see that, but I think the facts should speak for Eevee as mafia. I don't see a good narrative for no kill N2 otherwise.
I think your voting history is very very mafia-like. I don't know why they'd shoot me or if Jimmm commuted, but it's not out of the realm unlikely like you are making it out to be.

Really interested for Jimmm's input. Seems ash is going to vote for me, so both WW and Jimmm have to get it right or we lose.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on November 02, 2014, 08:01:50 am
Vote Count 4.4

Eevee (1): faust
faust (1): Eevee

Not Voting (3): ashersky, witherweaver, Jimmmmm

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. The deadline for Day 4 will be Tuesday, November 4, at 5:00 PM forum time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on November 02, 2014, 08:04:40 am
Prods are automatic and do not have to be requested in this game.  I am being more lenient than stated in the rules (as previously quoted) but will issue prods after 48 hours of inactivity.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on November 02, 2014, 08:09:04 am
So deadline is only 2.5 days away. I'll say it right now, I won't be around. Last time I will be able to check in is probably around noon that day. So you better get any questions you still have for me in until then (particularly Jimmmmm).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 02, 2014, 10:06:33 am
Yep, catching up tonight/tomorrow.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on November 02, 2014, 03:04:34 pm
I'm getting a bit nervous. In order to preemptively answer questions that might come up, I'llsum up the points against Eevee.

Eevee - the complete case

1. Voting patterns of Day 1

First (minor) thing is Hydrad RVS-voting Eevee. WW and joth are the first ones to suspect Eevee that day. Here (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11779.msg424410#msg424410) Hydrad defends Eevee. ashersky is the next one to join the Eevee wagon, then Xerxes. Note that up to this point, our two conf!mafia players are avoiding Eevee. This continues until Xerxes is lynched, after Hydrad joins the wagon (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11779.msg425897#msg425897), ignoring the wagon on Eevee.

So, summary: Eevee was a viable lynch candidate D1, all mafia players avoided to vote for him and Hydrad even defended Eevee and made sure someone else was lynched.

2. Eevee and the Hydrad lynch

First reads between them are Eevee thinks Hydrad is town (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11779.msg427221#msg427221), while Hydrad is null on Eevee (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11779.msg427224#msg427224). I think mafia!Eevee is trying to protect his less experienced partner here. Hydrad is bound to get some suspicion this game, it's good for Eevee to have a town read on him before that happens. He continues to argue against the lynch until the end. Of course, once he gives a town read, he has to stick to it till the end.

3. Night 2 actions and no kill

That's the most damning thing, I believe. Let's break down what we know about night actions that night:

1. silver jailkeeps Eevee
2. joth investigates Eevee (blocked)
3. someone (Ichi) blocks joth.

I'm not willing to buy in any theory that involves the SK giving up his night kill for a town action, unless someone can explain to me how that makes sense. So we have to account for two missing kills. Assuming Eevee is town, these are the possible ways for a kill not to happen:

a) Eevee gets targeted
b) the SK gets shot
c) Ichi gets recruited

Now, c) is pretty much impossible, because mafia wouldn't recruit Ichi if they already know he's not town, right? Also, Ichi flipped Traitor, not Goon/Roleblocker. Which leaves a) and b). I seriously doubt anyone would target Eevee. Mafia not for sure, since Eevee looked very much like Hydrad's partner and could easily be mislynched. Maaaybe a SK trying to hunt mafia? But I don't think the SK wants to do that in this situation. Then there's b), which is of course possible, but only explains the missing mafia kill. So you'd have to believe in SK kills Eevee, mafia shoots SK. Or you just use Occam's razor and realize that Eevee is scum.

4. Eevee and the Ichi lynch

Eevee's first reaction to the massclaim was trying to get silver lynched (which is, I guess, reasonable as either alignment). Then comes ashersky's analysis, and I guess Eevee feels he can't argue against that, so he gives in to lynching Ichi. And of course tries to get towncred for it. That whole episode with how Eevee acted towards Ichi was so scummy. I suggest you reread it. It was scum thinking they have lost an argument instead of town trying to figure out if ash's analysis was actually waterproof.

So, this is all. I hope it's enough.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 02, 2014, 03:11:26 pm
That's good stuff, thanks.  I'm going to look back and reread as well.  I've still only done Day 1 so far.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 02, 2014, 03:17:42 pm
faust is trying harder than Eevee to survive.  That could be a tell for either alignment.

I want to stick with my gut here...

I may be around for deadline, maybe not, as it's a busy week.  I've been strongly confident in my Eevee read since the Hydrad lynch.  But then, faust was the strongest opponent of an Ichi lynch that isn't an IC.

I mean, I think they are both scum anyway, so I guess it doesn't matter which order we go in?  I'll definitely vote before deadline.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on November 02, 2014, 03:21:18 pm
I haven't given up. I've laid out why I think it's very likely faust is the last mafia, and why I tentatively suspect ash for the serial killer, but the tide seems to be against me. I'm assuming repeating the same things isn't going to help my case here. If anyone has any questions, I'm interested!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 02, 2014, 03:33:49 pm
I haven't given up. I've laid out why I think it's very likely faust is the last mafia, and why I tentatively suspect ash for the serial killer, but the tide seems to be against me. I'm assuming repeating the same things isn't going to help my case here. If anyone has any questions, I'm interested!

I didn't say you'd given up, just that it seems like faust is trying harder.  It was more a comment on faust than you.  I know I've been accused of trying harder as scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on November 03, 2014, 08:04:42 am
faust is trying harder than Eevee to survive.  That could be a tell for either alignment.

I want to stick with my gut here...

I may be around for deadline, maybe not, as it's a busy week.  I've been strongly confident in my Eevee read since the Hydrad lynch.  But then, faust was the strongest opponent of an Ichi lynch that isn't an IC.

I mean, I think they are both scum anyway, so I guess it doesn't matter which order we go in?  I'll definitely vote before deadline.

You are remarkably careless here compared to the effort you put into figuring out that Ichi was scum. Are you so sure that WW is town?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 03, 2014, 08:06:02 am
I haven't given up. I've laid out why I think it's very likely faust is the last mafia, and why I tentatively suspect ash for the serial killer, but the tide seems to be against me. I'm assuming repeating the same things isn't going to help my case here. If anyone has any questions, I'm interested!

I didn't say you'd given up, just that it seems like faust is trying harder.  It was more a comment on faust than you.  I know I've been accused of trying harder as scum.

I think this close to the end that amount of effort is not an alignment tell.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 03, 2014, 08:11:50 am
A day and a bit until deadline. I'm not going to end up getting time to do a full re-read, but I am finding faust's case on Eevee more compelling than anything I've seen Eevee say about faust.

Eevee, convince me that you're Town and faust is scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on November 03, 2014, 08:12:39 am
Vote Count 4.5

Eevee (1): faust
faust (1): Eevee

Not Voting (3): ashersky, witherweaver, Jimmmmm

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. The deadline for Day 4 will be Tuesday, November 4, at 5:00 PM forum time.

Just over a day remaining!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 03, 2014, 07:45:08 pm
faust is trying harder than Eevee to survive.  That could be a tell for either alignment.

I want to stick with my gut here...

I may be around for deadline, maybe not, as it's a busy week.  I've been strongly confident in my Eevee read since the Hydrad lynch.  But then, faust was the strongest opponent of an Ichi lynch that isn't an IC.

I mean, I think they are both scum anyway, so I guess it doesn't matter which order we go in?  I'll definitely vote before deadline.

You are remarkably careless here compared to the effort you put into figuring out that Ichi was scum. Are you so sure that WW is town?

I'm fairly confident in my reads.  I've been a bad ass all game.

That said, I've been wrong in the past.  I have a 2 in 3 chance, and I'd order it current as Eevee > Faust > Witherweaver.  I did that earlier.

I mention your effort level in comparison to Eevee -- but Jimmmmm has a point regarding where we are in the game.  I do agree that I think town tries fairly hard at this point, too.

vote: eevee

I need to trust myself.  I've been a believe in this case since D2 ended.  Sometimes things are just that obvious.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on November 04, 2014, 05:49:24 am
A day and a bit until deadline. I'm not going to end up getting time to do a full re-read, but I am finding faust's case on Eevee more compelling than anything I've seen Eevee say about faust.

Eevee, convince me that you're Town and faust is scum.
I don't have anything new, I said all I have a week ago already. Faust's voting history is incredibly scummy, but either I'm the only one to think that or you think the lack of deaths N2 is more important. I don't know what happened then, but if scum made an unconventional decision to kill me that night and they win because of that, good for them.

Again, in case it matters tomorrow, I think ash is the SK and faust is the mafia. Let's hope we get really lucky at night.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on November 04, 2014, 07:27:03 am
Vote Count 4.6

Eevee (2): faust, ashersky
faust (1): Eevee

Not Voting (2): witherweaver, Jimmmmm

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. The deadline for Day 4 will be Tuesday, November 4, at 5:00 PM forum time.

About 10 hours remaining!  I should be around at deadline, but work might go long or you guys might lynch before I get back.  If that is the case, enjoy twilight until I get back.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 09:39:23 am
Hydrad Day 2 reads:

Ok so here are my reads right now.

I'm going to do a scale of 1 - 10. where 10 is most likely scum and 1 is towny. 5 is null

WW: Still like fausts case on WW and is one of my higher scum reads. 8
silverspawn: Don't think scum would pull that VT move. seems towny but if there is a SK I think hes it. still think hes more town then SK though. 3
Eevee: Can't read this game that well. weird that he pushed xp and no one cares that much about it. 5
IG: Still feels really towny to me. 2
joth: I still think joth is scummy. I'm not sure how everyone seems to have such a town read on him. 7 for me.
faust: Only played with in dice mafia. I feel like his playstyle is different so this ones a bit more of a gut read. 7
Hydrad: -1 so towny i'm off the scale
ashersky: very little info but don't think town or scum asher would lurk for much reason. slight town read I guess but very little info to go off of 4.9
jimmm: for lurking and POE he is one of my higher lynch wants now. This is probably one of my more willing lynches as letting someone lurk till the end makes it almost impossible to read them to see if they are town or scum. I feel like this is what kinda happened in zelda mafia where I just couldn't build a case on him and he ended up winning there. 8

With this in mind I actually want to go for Vote: Jimmm Now.

PPE:3

Faust highish for no good reason.. Eevee completely null, Ash slight town but mostly null.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 10:22:25 am
Man this sucks.  Voting and interaction wise, I still think it's Faust.  But Eevee's actions towards the Hydrad wagon don't seem particularly townie either. 

Notably, Faust moves his vote from Hydrad to Jimmmm right after: (1) Ichi claims Psych, which tells Mafia that Ichi is scum, and likely they're partner, and (2) the Hydrad wagon starts taking off.

Eevee is defending Hydrad quite a bit.. I think even before Hydrad was a big lynch candidate. 

The whole Jailkeeping thing makes Eevee look worse.  What are the explanations for no kill?

During Night 2, Mafia knows we're in:
* 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
* 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
I can't think of a convincing reason from their standpoint to shoot Eevee.  Maybe they wanted to avoid someone that would be Bodyguarded?  But the only reason for that is they would be worried Bodyguard would breadcrumb.  Or they thought Eevee was bodyguard and sensed a hint that he would bodyguard the other Mafia member, so they could argue for his towniness.  That would have to be Faust here.  Faust was on Eevee's "actively oppose lynching" list.  But, this is a huge stretch.

Okay, what happened again?
1) Silverspawn Jailkeeps Eevee
2) Someone Roleblocks Joth
3) SK does something
4) Ichi does something

Joth's Roleblock had to be either Ichi or SK Jailkeeping Joth.  Ichi one is far more likely.. Joth kind of leaked a PR so being a target makes sense.  Would SK Jailkeep Joth for fear of being targeted?  No, doesn't make sense.. well, SK knows Detective is in setup, and they only have to worry about that if they actually killed Night 1, which could only happen if Ash were actually Mafia. (ADK was only killed by one target.)  I can't think of a good reason for SK to Jailkeep Joth.

So Ichi Roleblocks Joth.

Mafia tries to kill someone... obvious targets are me, Joth, Jimmmm.. maybe Jimmm commuted?  Maybe SK shot him too?  I don't know.

Well, Eevee could be SK, too.  If Eevee were Mafia, what did SK do Night 2?  Shoot Eevee?  Shoot commute!Jimmm?  Shoot Joth?  Last is probably most likely.

I don't know, this isn't really going anywhere.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on November 04, 2014, 10:23:07 am
WW, I appreciate that you are at least considering both sides.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on November 04, 2014, 10:24:48 am

The whole Jailkeeping thing makes Eevee look worse.  What are the explanations for no kill?

I don't want to fish for Jimm's role, so I'm assuming they shot me. Serial killers don't necessarily think so hard who they are shooting, so I don't think it's a stretch. Why mafia would shoot me I honestly have no clue though.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 10:27:57 am
Wait wait wait.. SK has 1-shot bulletproof.  I keep forgetting that.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on November 04, 2014, 10:31:17 am
Wait wait wait.. SK has 1-shot bulletproof.  I keep forgetting that.
Oh! So that could explain the missing mafia kill quite believably!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on November 04, 2014, 10:32:31 am
If you would just read my posts... I have already laid out everything you just figured out :P But I guess reading posts is a scumtell.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on November 04, 2014, 10:35:30 am
Mafia tries to kill someone... obvious targets are me, Joth, Jimmmm.. maybe Jimmm commuted?  Maybe SK shot him too?  I don't know.

How was Jimmmmm an "obvious target" for the mafia kill?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 10:36:02 am
If you would just read my posts... I have already laid out everything you just figured out :P But I guess reading posts is a scumtell.

Yeah, but it's actually better to go through it on one's own.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 10:37:05 am
Mafia tries to kill someone... obvious targets are me, Joth, Jimmmm.. maybe Jimmm commuted?  Maybe SK shot him too?  I don't know.

How was Jimmmmm an "obvious target" for the mafia kill?

Actually good point.  He would have had to vote Hydrad if he was his partner. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 10:43:18 am
Faust, what do you think happened to the SK kill?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on November 04, 2014, 10:50:43 am
Faust, what do you think happened to the SK kill?

Would have to be either Eevee or Jimmmmm. Then there's the theory of the SK giving up his NK, but I don"t quite buy it... one could run through scenarios where that would have enabled him to fakeclaim, but I don't think any of them is worth it, because a fakeclaim always gets outed sooner or later.

Whether the SK did Eevee or Jimmmmm, hard to say, and depends of course on whether Jimmmmm has commuted.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on November 04, 2014, 10:51:54 am
Maybe Jimmmmm could claim if he commuted if that helps. This is LyLo, so maybe we should get all information out in the open if it helps catch scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 10:54:13 am
4. Eevee and the Ichi lynch

Eevee's first reaction to the massclaim was trying to get silver lynched (which is, I guess, reasonable as either alignment). Then comes ashersky's analysis, and I guess Eevee feels he can't argue against that, so he gives in to lynching Ichi. And of course tries to get towncred for it. That whole episode with how Eevee acted towards Ichi was so scummy. I suggest you reread it. It was scum thinking they have lost an argument instead of town trying to figure out if ash's analysis was actually waterproof.

So, this is all. I hope it's enough.

I don't think this was Eevee's first reaction.  This seems a little misleading.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on November 04, 2014, 11:03:16 am
It was very unlikely both me and silver could be town, our claims were almost competing but not quite. The SK being 1shot bulletproof and thus explaining a missing mafia kill ( that was the missing piece for me) makes more sense than anything I've seen yet.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on November 04, 2014, 11:04:18 am
4. Eevee and the Ichi lynch

Eevee's first reaction to the massclaim was trying to get silver lynched (which is, I guess, reasonable as either alignment). Then comes ashersky's analysis, and I guess Eevee feels he can't argue against that, so he gives in to lynching Ichi. And of course tries to get towncred for it. That whole episode with how Eevee acted towards Ichi was so scummy. I suggest you reread it. It was scum thinking they have lost an argument instead of town trying to figure out if ash's analysis was actually waterproof.

So, this is all. I hope it's enough.

I don't think this was Eevee's first reaction.  This seems a little misleading.

Hmmm, you're right I guess. I was referring to this:

Vote: silverspawn seems pretty clear to me then..

but it wasn't really his "initial reaction". Still the first vote of Eevee after the claims.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on November 04, 2014, 11:05:12 am
I still think Jimm should not tell us. It's not enough we get it right today, we also have to win the game, and Jimm's role situation unexplained could really help us with that.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on November 04, 2014, 11:06:04 am
4. Eevee and the Ichi lynch

Eevee's first reaction to the massclaim was trying to get silver lynched (which is, I guess, reasonable as either alignment). Then comes ashersky's analysis, and I guess Eevee feels he can't argue against that, so he gives in to lynching Ichi. And of course tries to get towncred for it. That whole episode with how Eevee acted towards Ichi was so scummy. I suggest you reread it. It was scum thinking they have lost an argument instead of town trying to figure out if ash's analysis was actually waterproof.

So, this is all. I hope it's enough.

I don't think this was Eevee's first reaction.  This seems a little misleading.
Well, d'uh. It was/is very unlikely from my perspective that his claim could be truthful. Needed some additional analysis I wasn't capable of doing to get there, but I did. :)

Hmmm, you're right I guess. I was referring to this:

Vote: silverspawn seems pretty clear to me then..

but it wasn't really his "initial reaction". Still the first vote of Eevee after the claims.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on November 04, 2014, 11:06:36 am
Eevee's confusion about the SK seems highly artificial. This has been mentioned multiple times, I'm sure, and is the only semi-reasonable explanation for town!Eevee staying alive. Eevee is a good enough player to realize this.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on November 04, 2014, 11:06:51 am
4. Eevee and the Ichi lynch

Eevee's first reaction to the massclaim was trying to get silver lynched (which is, I guess, reasonable as either alignment). Then comes ashersky's analysis, and I guess Eevee feels he can't argue against that, so he gives in to lynching Ichi. And of course tries to get towncred for it. That whole episode with how Eevee acted towards Ichi was so scummy. I suggest you reread it. It was scum thinking they have lost an argument instead of town trying to figure out if ash's analysis was actually waterproof.

So, this is all. I hope it's enough.

I don't think this was Eevee's first reaction.  This seems a little misleading.

Hmmm, you're right I guess. I was referring to this:

Vote: silverspawn seems pretty clear to me then..

but it wasn't really his "initial reaction". Still the first vote of Eevee after the claims.

Well, d'uh. It was/is very unlikely from my perspective that his claim could be truthful. Needed some additional analysis I wasn't capable of doing to get there, but I did. :) You are of course leaving out the part where I switched to IG and rode that wagon hard.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on November 04, 2014, 11:07:22 am
Eevee's confusion about the SK seems highly artificial. This has been mentioned multiple times, I'm sure, and is the only semi-reasonable explanation for town!Eevee staying alive. Eevee is a good enough player to realize this.
I don't think it's been mentioned multiple times, I'm pretty sure I would have noticed. If I had, you don't think I would have used the argument myself already?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on November 04, 2014, 11:10:04 am
I still think Jimm should not tell us. It's not enough we get it right today, we also have to win the game, and Jimm's role situation unexplained could really help us with that.

Help us how? This is what will happen:

If we lynch scum (i.e. lynch you) today, the remaining scum will certainly not kill among {me, WW, ash}, as these are the players that can still be mislynched. He will target Jimmmmm, who is conf!town. This happens regardless. Either Jimmmmm can still commute and lives for the endgame, or he doesn't. Claiming won't change the slightest thing here.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on November 04, 2014, 11:11:32 am
Eevee's confusion about the SK seems highly artificial. This has been mentioned multiple times, I'm sure, and is the only semi-reasonable explanation for town!Eevee staying alive. Eevee is a good enough player to realize this.
I don't think it's been mentioned multiple times, I'm pretty sure I would have noticed. If I had, you don't think I would have used the argument myself already?

Maybe you thought playing confused town would work better than playing analytic town, what do I know?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on November 04, 2014, 11:12:12 am
4. Eevee and the Ichi lynch

Eevee's first reaction to the massclaim was trying to get silver lynched (which is, I guess, reasonable as either alignment). Then comes ashersky's analysis, and I guess Eevee feels he can't argue against that, so he gives in to lynching Ichi. And of course tries to get towncred for it. That whole episode with how Eevee acted towards Ichi was so scummy. I suggest you reread it. It was scum thinking they have lost an argument instead of town trying to figure out if ash's analysis was actually waterproof.

So, this is all. I hope it's enough.

I don't think this was Eevee's first reaction.  This seems a little misleading.

Hmmm, you're right I guess. I was referring to this:

Vote: silverspawn seems pretty clear to me then..

but it wasn't really his "initial reaction". Still the first vote of Eevee after the claims.

Well, d'uh. It was/is very unlikely from my perspective that his claim could be truthful. Needed some additional analysis I wasn't capable of doing to get there, but I did. :) You are of course leaving out the part where I switched to IG and rode that wagon hard.

Again with the reading. I haven't left out that part.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on November 04, 2014, 11:12:44 am
So we can't make scum ever target anyone but Jimm? I guess in that case there is no advantage, you are right.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on November 04, 2014, 11:13:26 am
Eevee's confusion about the SK seems highly artificial. This has been mentioned multiple times, I'm sure, and is the only semi-reasonable explanation for town!Eevee staying alive. Eevee is a good enough player to realize this.
I don't think it's been mentioned multiple times, I'm pretty sure I would have noticed. If I had, you don't think I would have used the argument myself already?

Maybe you thought playing confused town would work better than playing analytic town, what do I know?
I've tried to be the analytic town. :D
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 11:16:02 am
4. Eevee and the Ichi lynch

Eevee's first reaction to the massclaim was trying to get silver lynched (which is, I guess, reasonable as either alignment). Then comes ashersky's analysis, and I guess Eevee feels he can't argue against that, so he gives in to lynching Ichi. And of course tries to get towncred for it. That whole episode with how Eevee acted towards Ichi was so scummy. I suggest you reread it. It was scum thinking they have lost an argument instead of town trying to figure out if ash's analysis was actually waterproof.

So, this is all. I hope it's enough.

I don't think this was Eevee's first reaction.  This seems a little misleading.

Hmmm, you're right I guess. I was referring to this:

Vote: silverspawn seems pretty clear to me then..

but it wasn't really his "initial reaction". Still the first vote of Eevee after the claims.

But it's after quite a bit of back and forths and evidence of trying to think things through.  Initially he was going on about Silver being townie.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on November 04, 2014, 11:18:23 am
But it's after quite a bit of back and forths and evidence of trying to think things through.  Initially he was going on about Silver being townie.

Yes, well, I agree... I don't really see the point in this argument though, I said that this episode wasn't indicative of alignment.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: faust on November 04, 2014, 11:40:02 am
I'm off! Don't do anything stupid.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on November 04, 2014, 11:43:01 am
Let's lynch faust! He won't see it coming!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 11:45:13 am
I'm off! Don't do anything stupid.

Yeah, well.. I still don't know which way I'm going.  Hopefully if you are town you understand why this isn't so straightforward.  With this setup there's so many things that can be responsible for a lack of night kills, that it's really hard to make decisions on that.  And you both have been pretty similar in regards voting/interactions with scum and town players. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on November 04, 2014, 12:10:50 pm
faust has been much more about sly about his "scummy" voting positions. Like, I understand that me defending Hydrad the way I did looks bad, but I was just a townie with a wrong read. If you were his partner, would you tie yourself to him super strongly like I did, or do what faust has been doing with each of our scum lynches and quietly try to deflect towards townier targets?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on November 04, 2014, 12:12:35 pm
It was looking inevitable Hydrad would go down, yet I kept on associating with him. faust was likewise trying to get us go to another direction, but he wasn't getting the attention for it like i was.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 12:37:54 pm
When Ichi claims Psych, this was the vote count:

Jimmmmm (2): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin
Hydrad (1): Witherweaver
Ichimaru Gin (4): jotheonah, silverspawn, Eevee, Jimmmm (L-1)
silverspawn (2): faust, ashersky


First post from Faust after Ichi claims Psych:

Well, that was unnecessary.

Vote: Jimmmmm for now.

Vote count before Faust moves to Jimmmm:

Jimmmmm (2): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin
Hydrad (3): Witherweaver, silverspawn, joth
Ichimaru Gin (2): Eevee, jimmmmm
ashersky (1): Jimmmmm
silverspawn (2): ashersky, Faust


First post from Eevee after Ichi claims Psych:

Well this is unfortunate. I don't really want to lynch any of the viable candidates now.

Probably still like IG best, of the realistic options.

Vote count at that time:
Jimmmmm (3): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin, faust
Hydrad (3): Witherweaver, jotheonah, silverspawn
Ichimaru Gin (2): Eevee, Jimmmmm
silverspawn (1): ashersky

And then eventually (after discussion) Eevee votes Jimmmm as well:

Joth, when you put it that way (and I feel the information you listed was accurate and fair), Jimm seems far and away the best choice.

My prefered lynches aren't happening, so I'll Vote: Jimmm. I feel scum is making me compromise though. :/

Also, reads list shortly before the Ichi claim thing:

Okay, everyone needs to take responsibility and we need to get a lynch through.


Want to lynch: IG, WW

Would lynch: joth, maaaaybe ash

No opinion: Jimmm, maaaaybe ash

Would actively oppose lynching: silverspawn, faust, Hydrad


All rows are in the order of certainty.

I feel my vote is best served on IG because not enough people want WW (or joth), but if that's mistaken, those wagons have my vote.

Want to lynch: WW, silverspawn, Jimmmmm

Would lynch: Hydrad, joth, ash

Won't lynch: Eevee, IG

I was kind of hoping there would be a story here~
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on November 04, 2014, 12:54:23 pm
I think faust looks very bad there, but maybe I'm biased.

I forgot I had that suspicion on WW going. That could explain him wanting to shoot me as the SK. I still think ash is more likely though.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 02:22:51 pm
In the end,to me, Faust had terrible reads, eevee took scummy action/inaction.  Now part of that is timing, Faust wasn't around at a time where he could take definitively scummy action.

I think the N2 situation is hard to explain, as WW showed.  The most likely scenario is a killer was unable to kill or chose not to.  One of those is more likely than the other.

SK bulletproof is not passive, so you have to think SK had a reason to actively choose to use it over the other powers AND on N2.  Was Faust or Eevee likely to make that call?  I don't see it. 

I think eevee failed to kill (jailed) and Faust failed to kill eevee (eevee in jail) is most sensible.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 02:23:48 pm
I'd also note in multiball, kill motivation can be different.  Shooting for the opposing team could trump killing off the obv!town.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 02:33:38 pm
In the end,to me, Faust had terrible reads, eevee took scummy action/inaction.  Now part of that is timing, Faust wasn't around at a time where he could take definitively scummy action.

I think the N2 situation is hard to explain, as WW showed.  The most likely scenario is a killer was unable to kill or chose not to.  One of those is more likely than the other.

SK bulletproof is not passive, so you have to think SK had a reason to actively choose to use it over the other powers AND on N2.  Was Faust or Eevee likely to make that call?  I don't see it. 

I think eevee failed to kill (jailed) and Faust failed to kill eevee (eevee in jail) is most sensible.

SK bulletproof IS passive.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 02:35:28 pm
Well, let me clarify:

Serial Killer: (if applicable, present 3/8 of the time)
- 2-shot JOAT, which includes a passive 1-shot Bulletproof, 1-shot Strongman, 1-shot Investigation Immune. If the Bulletproof is used up one JOAT attributes will be lost. If both the Strongman or Investigation Immune is used at night the Bulletproof will be lost as well.
- The SK may choose to give up NK and instead perform any one of the 8 town roles listed above during the night. Each role may only be used once by the Sk during the game.


So SK has two potentially bulletproofs.  A passive 1-shot Bulletproof from JOAT, and the town ability of 1-shot bulletproof (has to activate and not kill).  Additionally, they have the town 1-shot commuter (again, has to activate and not kill).
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 02:36:25 pm
Heck, SK could have been shot Night 1, while he shot ADK, and used up the town 1-shot bulletproof on Night 2.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on November 04, 2014, 03:00:43 pm
In the end,to me, Faust had terrible reads, eevee took scummy action/inaction.  Now part of that is timing, Faust wasn't around at a time where he could take definitively scummy action.
I disagree. I had a bad read on Hydrad, but I've been very transparent in my dealings, while faust has these convenient disappearances with his vote left on a place that benefited scum. His voting behavior matches that of a partner to the dot in both IG and Hydrad wagons.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 03:16:16 pm
Jimmmm, you around?  Deadline is 5:00, right?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 04, 2014, 03:22:10 pm
Jimmmm, you around?  Deadline is 5:00, right?

Yeah I'm around.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on November 04, 2014, 03:31:42 pm
Jimmmm, you around?  Deadline is 5:00, right?

Yeah I'm around.
Who is getting lynched!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 04, 2014, 03:36:32 pm
Jimmmm, you around?  Deadline is 5:00, right?

Yeah I'm around.
Who is getting lynched!

Tossing up between you and faust.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 03:37:52 pm
Jimmmm, you around?  Deadline is 5:00, right?

Yeah I'm around.
Who is getting lynched!

Tossing up between you and faust.

What would SK want to do in this scenario?  Lynch Mafia or Town?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 04, 2014, 03:43:55 pm
Jimmmm, you around?  Deadline is 5:00, right?

Yeah I'm around.
Who is getting lynched!

Tossing up between you and faust.

What would SK want to do in this scenario?  Lynch Mafia or Town?

Mafia I'd say. At least that way his fate is in his own ability not to get lynched rather than in avoiding the Mafia kill.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 03:47:09 pm
Jimmmm, you around?  Deadline is 5:00, right?

Yeah I'm around.
Who is getting lynched!

Tossing up between you and faust.

What would SK want to do in this scenario?  Lynch Mafia or Town?

Mafia I'd say. At least that way his fate is in his own ability not to get lynched rather than in avoiding the Mafia kill.

Well he does potentially still have protections available to him.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 03:48:02 pm
Eh, probably not a useful question anyway.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 04, 2014, 03:49:02 pm
I'd suggest that everyone genuinely wants to lynch (non them) scum Today.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 03:51:38 pm
My gut is still telling me Faust.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 03:52:13 pm
In the end,to me, Faust had terrible reads, eevee took scummy action/inaction.  Now part of that is timing, Faust wasn't around at a time where he could take definitively scummy action.

I think the N2 situation is hard to explain, as WW showed.  The most likely scenario is a killer was unable to kill or chose not to.  One of those is more likely than the other.

SK bulletproof is not passive, so you have to think SK had a reason to actively choose to use it over the other powers AND on N2.  Was Faust or Eevee likely to make that call?  I don't see it. 

I think eevee failed to kill (jailed) and Faust failed to kill eevee (eevee in jail) is most sensible.

SK bulletproof IS passive.

Huh, you are right.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 03:52:41 pm
My gut is still telling me Faust.

My brain tells me Eevee, but my gut wants to agree with you.

I feel like my gut is more often wrong than my brain.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Eevee on November 04, 2014, 04:01:57 pm
If it helps, both my gut and brain are telling me faust.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on November 04, 2014, 04:03:07 pm
Vote Count 4.6

Eevee (2): faust, ashersky
faust (1): Eevee

Not Voting (2): witherweaver, Jimmmmm

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. The deadline for Day 4 will be Tuesday, November 4, at 5:00 PM forum time.

1 hour remaining!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 04:08:21 pm
Guys?  Are you around?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 04, 2014, 04:09:41 pm
WW, why faust? Link your most convincing post if you like.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 04:13:42 pm
I think this would be WW's answer:

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11779.msg435555#msg435555
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 04:13:53 pm
Anyone get anything by how Ichi acted towards people?  He knew Hydrad + X were his partner.  His interaction with Hydrad was very limited.. he deflected the lynch, but not much else.  It looks like there was more interaction with Eevee than with Faust. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 04:15:03 pm
WW, why faust? Link your most convincing post if you like.

Eevee doesn't sound like Mafia to me.  Not a good argument, but eh.

Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 04:19:13 pm
I keep coming back to actions versus words.

Faust gained a lot of scumminess in my eyes because of his vehement opposition to the Ichi lynch.  But, well, that could be a really bad read, and it seems over the top for a partner move.  I think bussing there is much more likely.  Other than that, and the fact that he was arguing against me (which always add scumminess to people, for everyone, no matter what you say), I don't have an argument to make him scummier than Eevee.

In the end, if I still believe WW is town, he's scum anyway.  But I think today we need to lynch the one whom we are most sure of.

I'm going to Ctrl-F Ichi's posts and see what I get from it.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 04:20:04 pm
All that to say Faust makes more sense as SK, given all he'd have are reads and wouldn't have the need to bus like Ichi's partner would.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 04:21:50 pm
The most convincing thing for Eevee---that there was no kill the night he was Jailkept---isn't as convincing as it seemed to be.  Because whether Eevee or Faust is Mafia, the explanation for the lack of SK kill is the same.  The only difference is:

1) If Eevee is Mafia, Jailkeeping prevented kill.
2) If Faust is Mafia, Faust shot SK!Ash or Eevee.  First being most likely.

Is the second scenario much less believable than the first?  I'm not too convinced.


Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 04:24:55 pm
Just finished Ichi's D1.  All there was in regards to interactions that I noticed (with folks still alive) is buddying Eevee.  A few posts explicitly saying he "agreed" with him.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 04:26:09 pm
I keep coming back to actions versus words.

Faust gained a lot of scumminess in my eyes because of his vehement opposition to the Ichi lynch.  But, well, that could be a really bad read, and it seems over the top for a partner move.  I think bussing there is much more likely.  Other than that, and the fact that he was arguing against me (which always add scumminess to people, for everyone, no matter what you say), I don't have an argument to make him scummier than Eevee.

In the end, if I still believe WW is town, he's scum anyway.  But I think today we need to lynch the one whom we are most sure of.

I'm going to Ctrl-F Ichi's posts and see what I get from it.

Also in regards to Faust treating Ichi, Faust developed a strong town read on Ichi after the whole he almost got lynched thing, and maintained it after Ichi's claim.  It looks like Faust might have figured out that Ichi was the traitor.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 04:27:11 pm
Just finished Ichi's D1.  All there was in regards to interactions that I noticed (with folks still alive) is buddying Eevee.  A few posts explicitly saying he "agreed" with him.

Would you do that to your partner when they don't know you?  He almost ignored Hydrad.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 04:33:06 pm
The most convincing thing for Eevee---that there was no kill the night he was Jailkept---isn't as convincing as it seemed to be.  Because whether Eevee or Faust is Mafia, the explanation for the lack of SK kill is the same.  The only difference is:

1) If Eevee is Mafia, Jailkeeping prevented kill.
2) If Faust is Mafia, Faust shot SK!Ash or Eevee.  First being most likely.

Is the second scenario much less believable than the first?  I'm not too convinced.

I actually think the most convincing thing for Eevee is the end of Day 2, when Hydrad was lynched.  Reread those pages.

As for why there were zero kills on N2, we're missing two kills no matter what.  One Goon was dead, the traitor can't kill, so there is exactly one mafia who can kill.  And then there's an SK.  Eevee being jailkept is the most plausible reason for one kill being missing.  I think you are looking at the lack of a second kill and seeing how that might clear Eevee.  I just don't see it.

If Eevee is mafia, he couldn't kill.  If Eevee is SK, he couldn't kill.  What happened to the other kill, whether it was Eevee was shot or Jimmmmm commuted or the SK didn't shoot and used a power or whatever I don't think takes away from the argument against Eevee here.

Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I see that night specifically.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 04:34:19 pm
Just finished Ichi's D1.  All there was in regards to interactions that I noticed (with folks still alive) is buddying Eevee.  A few posts explicitly saying he "agreed" with him.

Would you do that to your partner when they don't know you?  He almost ignored Hydrad.

Maybe?  I don't know what I'd do as a traitor there.  When I was mafia in RMM5, we had an unknown traitor in the setup who I think knew us.  Yuma got himself killed for us late in the game and we won.

Maybe I'd look at how to help my partners?  I don't know.  You might want to signal your existence somehow?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 04:39:46 pm
The most convincing thing for Eevee---that there was no kill the night he was Jailkept---isn't as convincing as it seemed to be.  Because whether Eevee or Faust is Mafia, the explanation for the lack of SK kill is the same.  The only difference is:

1) If Eevee is Mafia, Jailkeeping prevented kill.
2) If Faust is Mafia, Faust shot SK!Ash or Eevee.  First being most likely.

Is the second scenario much less believable than the first?  I'm not too convinced.

I actually think the most convincing thing for Eevee is the end of Day 2, when Hydrad was lynched.  Reread those pages.

As for why there were zero kills on N2, we're missing two kills no matter what.  One Goon was dead, the traitor can't kill, so there is exactly one mafia who can kill.  And then there's an SK.  Eevee being jailkept is the most plausible reason for one kill being missing.  I think you are looking at the lack of a second kill and seeing how that might clear Eevee.  I just don't see it.

If Eevee is mafia, he couldn't kill.  If Eevee is SK, he couldn't kill.  What happened to the other kill, whether it was Eevee was shot or Jimmmmm commuted or the SK didn't shoot and used a power or whatever I don't think takes away from the argument against Eevee here.

Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I see that night specifically.

Um.. my point was.. I was thinking: Occam's Razor implies that the simplest explanation is best, but even Eevee being Mafia requires the same kind of complicated scenarios that him not being Mafia requries.  So it's not really applicable.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 04:44:35 pm
Yeah, I dunno:

Has anyone but me even reread Hydrad? He has been reasonably active (we've all been very active except for Jimm and maybe ash), and his posts are rich on content. The "scummy things" are just Hydrad things, unless you have something specific it's just the scummy vibe everyone in the world ever always gets from him for whatever reason.

This is a really ballsy thing to do to your partner.  The problem is it's, like, really convincing as misguided town.  Because Hydrad is always scummy, like, all the time. 

And, well, "his posts are rich on content" is basically just not true.  That makes it a little more likely for Eevee to just be incorrect about this.. as scum you'd want your arguments to be better.

But, maybe Eevee was grasping.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 04:44:57 pm
AFK 3 mins.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 04:45:22 pm
I guess here finding the remaining mafia has to be easier when looking at Hydrad than when looking at Ichi.  The remaining mafia and hydrad knew each other and talked to each other.  There's got to be more there.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on November 04, 2014, 04:45:27 pm
15 minutes
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 04:47:37 pm
Yeah, I dunno:

Has anyone but me even reread Hydrad? He has been reasonably active (we've all been very active except for Jimm and maybe ash), and his posts are rich on content. The "scummy things" are just Hydrad things, unless you have something specific it's just the scummy vibe everyone in the world ever always gets from him for whatever reason.

This is a really ballsy thing to do to your partner.  The problem is it's, like, really convincing as misguided town.  Because Hydrad is always scummy, like, all the time. 

And, well, "his posts are rich on content" is basically just not true.  That makes it a little more likely for Eevee to just be incorrect about this.. as scum you'd want your arguments to be better.

But, maybe Eevee was grasping.

You could make that argument about faust's defense of Ichi.  It's either really scummy or really misguided town.

The difference is that Hydrad had a partner who knew him and they hadn't lost anyone yet.  Ichi may or may not have been known to be the traitor, right?  Until he was lynched the setup wasn't known for sure.  So faust would have been defending a partner he wasn't positive about.

What did faust do during the hydrad lynch?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 04:51:12 pm
Yeah, I dunno:

Has anyone but me even reread Hydrad? He has been reasonably active (we've all been very active except for Jimm and maybe ash), and his posts are rich on content. The "scummy things" are just Hydrad things, unless you have something specific it's just the scummy vibe everyone in the world ever always gets from him for whatever reason.

This is a really ballsy thing to do to your partner.  The problem is it's, like, really convincing as misguided town.  Because Hydrad is always scummy, like, all the time. 

And, well, "his posts are rich on content" is basically just not true.  That makes it a little more likely for Eevee to just be incorrect about this.. as scum you'd want your arguments to be better.

But, maybe Eevee was grasping.

You could make that argument about faust's defense of Ichi.  It's either really scummy or really misguided town.

The difference is that Hydrad had a partner who knew him and they hadn't lost anyone yet.  Ichi may or may not have been known to be the traitor, right?  Until he was lynched the setup wasn't known for sure.  So faust would have been defending a partner he wasn't positive about.

What did faust do during the hydrad lynch?

After Ichi claimed, Hydrad wagon started up and Faust moved his vote from Silverspawn to Jimmmmm.  He was, I think, mostly absent up through the lynch.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 04, 2014, 04:52:03 pm
Crap, I have to choose. Leaning Eevee.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 04, 2014, 04:56:08 pm
Vote: Eevee
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on November 04, 2014, 04:57:05 pm
Thread Locked!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on November 04, 2014, 05:01:37 pm
Final Vote Count

Eevee (3): faust, ashersky, Jimmmmm
faust (1): Eevee

Not Voting (1): witherweaver

Eevee has been lynched!  He was Lukas, a Vanilla Townie

Please submit all night actions.  I will resume the game once I have processed all night actions or in 48 hours.  Whichever happens first.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on November 04, 2014, 05:04:09 pm
(unless anyone objects and wishes the game to reopen in 48 hours as per the rules)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on November 04, 2014, 06:17:44 pm
It was a restless night for everyone. Each person knew what they were up against.  They each knew the odds were stacked against them.  They all gathered in the same room and conferred together.  "two of us are stronger than any one of us on our own, so you everyone better behave and not do anything naughty!"  Everyone silently nodded, knowing that they were just moments from reaching the goal.  They stared into each others eyes as they each backed into a corner of the room.  Faust began, "you know, I really think the three of us should gang up on........" and then he was gone.  The three people remaining stared at the trapdoor that had opened into an endless chasm beneath him.  "I saw you twitch and open the trapdoor" one of them shouted at another.  "No it was you" protested the third.  A decision had to be made.

Faust has been killed!  He was Senator Thurman, a mafia goon.

Thread Unlocked!

Vote Count 5.0

Not Voting (3): ashersky, witherweaver, Jimmmmm

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch. The deadline for Day 5 will be Friday, November 14, at 5:00 PM forum time. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 06:19:01 pm
Alright

Vote: Asherksy
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 06:19:15 pm
Or

Vote: Ashersky
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 06:22:16 pm
Really surprised we didn't lose.  I wish I would have insisted on the Faust lynch, but I guess we lucked out.

Jimmmm... not sure what your thoughts are.  I suppose the most damning thing against Ash was that he was Jailkept Night 1 and there was only one kill.  And I've kind of thought he was the SK all along, if not Eevee.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 04, 2014, 06:31:27 pm
Well that... okay.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 06:37:02 pm
I'd like to point out I've been on zero mislynches this game and 2 scum lynches. 
 
I don't remember who I was voting for Day 1.. maybe Eevee still. 

And I called Ichi/Faust back on Day 3 :)

This isn't said to convince that I'm not SK (I'm not), I just feel that I had good reads this game and I'm bragging :)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 06:38:12 pm
Lynch Ash lynch Ash!

Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 06:47:41 pm
Well that... okay.

Not sure why Ash shot Faust though.  Wouldn't he have a better chance of winning by shooting me?  He wins on endgame with him+mafia, right?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:14:29 pm
vote: witherweaver obviously.

I'm super surprised by this.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:14:58 pm
Well that... okay.

Not sure why Ash shot Faust though.  Wouldn't he have a better chance of winning by shooting me?  He wins on endgame with him+mafia, right?

Because why would I shoot faust?  Because I'm not the SK.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:16:12 pm
Up to Jimmmmm.

I feel like you are in this position really often.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 04, 2014, 07:19:08 pm
Up to Jimmmmm.

I feel like you are in this position really often.

Yeah.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 07:21:01 pm
Jimmmmm did you commute?  If not, Faust shot BP Ash last night, and it had to be the passive BP, meaning it was still up.

Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:21:08 pm
So, WW as the SK.  I'm not sure what to look for on re-read, since he could play the whole thing as town.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:21:55 pm
Jimmmmm did you commute?  If not, Faust shot BP Ash last night, and it had to be the passive BP, meaning it was still up.

Go read Faust.  He thought I was the SK.  Don't you think he would have roleblocked me?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:22:23 pm
Or killed me, since as you point out, he was the wrong mafia member to win in an endgame with the SK?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 04, 2014, 07:22:37 pm
Jimmmmm did you commute?  If not, Faust shot BP Ash last night, and it had to be the passive BP, meaning it was still up.

Yeah I did.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:23:52 pm
My best guess is he roleblocked me and shot Jimmmmm or WW to force a lylo with me, who he suspected was the SK.

And since WW wasn't roleblocked, he was able to kill faust, who he was all over on D4, and try to get me lynched.  He had been under no suspicion the whole game, so he's in a good spot.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 07:24:25 pm
Jimmmmm did you commute?  If not, Faust shot BP Ash last night, and it had to be the passive BP, meaning it was still up.

Go read Faust.  He thought I was the SK.  Don't you think he would have roleblocked me?

Huh, that is weird.  Maybe he thought you'd go for Town, since you'd win if he was still alive.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 07:25:09 pm
My best guess is he roleblocked me and shot Jimmmmm or WW to force a lylo with me, who he suspected was the SK.

And since WW wasn't roleblocked, he was able to kill faust, who he was all over on D4, and try to get me lynched.  He had been under no suspicion the whole game, so he's in a good spot.

Why would I want to kill Faust as SK? How does me being "all over" him relate at all to this, since your argument was that I was just acting as town?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:25:45 pm
Quote
I definitely wouldn't do what Silver did as an SK, though.  The only reason I'd buy it at all is because he did something very similar as a Survivor in Bastard Mafia.  It didn't work out to well for him there, though, so I wonder if he'd be bold enough to try something like that in a regular game.

A WW quote from D1.  Mentions what he would do as an SK.  Self-aware?

(I'm working from the print screen, so not quoting directly.)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:26:38 pm
Jimmmmm did you commute?  If not, Faust shot BP Ash last night, and it had to be the passive BP, meaning it was still up.

Go read Faust.  He thought I was the SK.  Don't you think he would have roleblocked me?

Huh, that is weird.  Maybe he thought you'd go for Town, since you'd win if he was still alive.

According to the OP, the auto-win only happens if it's mafia and SK only.  No matter what, there's a town member alive today, so I don't see why you think the SK was banking on the auto-win. 

To me, it sounds like you made an error about your own wincon.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 07:27:22 pm
Jimmmmm did you commute?  If not, Faust shot BP Ash last night, and it had to be the passive BP, meaning it was still up.

Go read Faust.  He thought I was the SK.  Don't you think he would have roleblocked me?

Huh, that is weird.  Maybe he thought you'd go for Town, since you'd win if he was still alive.

According to the OP, the auto-win only happens if it's mafia and SK only.  No matter what, there's a town member alive today, so I don't see why you think the SK was banking on the auto-win. 

To me, it sounds like you made an error about your own wincon.

If Mafia shoots town and SK shoots town, and both go through, then SK wins.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:28:23 pm
My best guess is he roleblocked me and shot Jimmmmm or WW to force a lylo with me, who he suspected was the SK.

And since WW wasn't roleblocked, he was able to kill faust, who he was all over on D4, and try to get me lynched.  He had been under no suspicion the whole game, so he's in a good spot.

Why would I want to kill Faust as SK? How does me being "all over" him relate at all to this, since your argument was that I was just acting as town?

Because you wanted to lynch mafia to put yourself in the best position going into night.  You'd have free reign to do whatever you wanted.  You really seemed focused on hitting the right scum (mafia) as opposed to just hitting scum.  And that was in your best interest.  When it failed, you had to scramble.  You were pushing faust until the end, but it wasn't because you feared you were wrong on Eevee -- you never made any case against me.  So if you thought it was eevee/faust, like I did, you shouldn't have had such a problem with the lynch order.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 07:28:53 pm
Though I guess.. if it's you, Faust, Jimmm, then Jimmm gets to be kingmaker and you have no choice.

If you kill Faust and either have BP left or Jimmm commutes, then you get to go for your mislynch here.

So, maybe that's the motivation.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:29:20 pm
Jimmmmm did you commute?  If not, Faust shot BP Ash last night, and it had to be the passive BP, meaning it was still up.

Go read Faust.  He thought I was the SK.  Don't you think he would have roleblocked me?

Huh, that is weird.  Maybe he thought you'd go for Town, since you'd win if he was still alive.

According to the OP, the auto-win only happens if it's mafia and SK only.  No matter what, there's a town member alive today, so I don't see why you think the SK was banking on the auto-win. 

To me, it sounds like you made an error about your own wincon.

If Mafia shoots town and SK shoots town, and both go through, then SK wins.

And how would you try to coordinate that across factions?

And wouldn't the mafia attempt to shoot the SK since you've pointed out the mafia can't win on endgame ties?  So the SK would know that your plan doesn't work.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:29:44 pm
Though I guess.. if it's you, Faust, Jimmm, then Jimmm gets to be kingmaker and you have no choice.

If you kill Faust and either have BP left or Jimmm commutes, then you get to go for your mislynch here.

So, maybe that's the motivation.

Same for you in that scenario.  Or anyone.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 07:29:58 pm
My best guess is he roleblocked me and shot Jimmmmm or WW to force a lylo with me, who he suspected was the SK.

And since WW wasn't roleblocked, he was able to kill faust, who he was all over on D4, and try to get me lynched.  He had been under no suspicion the whole game, so he's in a good spot.

Why would I want to kill Faust as SK? How does me being "all over" him relate at all to this, since your argument was that I was just acting as town?

Because you wanted to lynch mafia to put yourself in the best position going into night.  You'd have free reign to do whatever you wanted.  You really seemed focused on hitting the right scum (mafia) as opposed to just hitting scum.  And that was in your best interest.  When it failed, you had to scramble.  You were pushing faust until the end, but it wasn't because you feared you were wrong on Eevee -- you never made any case against me.  So if you thought it was eevee/faust, like I did, you shouldn't have had such a problem with the lynch order.

I obviously did not think it was Eevee/Faust.  I thought one was Mafia, I believed Faust but wasn't sure.  I even said you were likely SK in the case where Faust was Mafia (hey! I was right)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 07:31:52 pm
My best guess is he roleblocked me and shot Jimmmmm or WW to force a lylo with me, who he suspected was the SK.

And since WW wasn't roleblocked, he was able to kill faust, who he was all over on D4, and try to get me lynched.  He had been under no suspicion the whole game, so he's in a good spot.

Why would I want to kill Faust as SK? How does me being "all over" him relate at all to this, since your argument was that I was just acting as town?

Because you wanted to lynch mafia to put yourself in the best position going into night.  You'd have free reign to do whatever you wanted.  You really seemed focused on hitting the right scum (mafia) as opposed to just hitting scum.  And that was in your best interest.  When it failed, you had to scramble.  You were pushing faust until the end, but it wasn't because you feared you were wrong on Eevee -- you never made any case against me.  So if you thought it was eevee/faust, like I did, you shouldn't have had such a problem with the lynch order.

Well, hopefully this can be recognized as an artificial argument, because it is.  I'm not really sure if my posts are evidence enough on that, but I'm guessing they are since I was basically filterless posting the entire time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:32:27 pm
D1 WW:

Quote
And the main thing, in a broader context than this game: a case being ultimately correct or incorrect is not the same as it being good or bad.  "Correct" or "Incorrect" is whether they flip scum or town, but good or bad is the actual reasoning behind thinking what you're thinking, with the information you have available to you at the time.

I can, say, be a vig, randomly target someone, and hit scum and feel great about it, but my "argument" (in this case, choosing randomly) was obviously terrible.  Less extremely, I can make a bad argument against scum and just be lucky.  I can also make a good argument against town as town, or a good argument against town as scum. 

Or as a general example, most, if not all, Day 1 cases are bad.  But we still hit scum Day 1.

Voting for people is how the game is played, and in a lot of cases as town you're going to vote against other town players.  This is actually a good thing, because it can lead to more information to let you (and the other players) know if they really are scum or are actually town. 

And being "caught for the wrong reasons" is definitely a thing.  I feel it as scum when I get suspected for things that I didn't think warranted suspicion.

That vig thing, and the suspected/caught for the wrong reasons stuff seems relevant.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:33:18 pm
My best guess is he roleblocked me and shot Jimmmmm or WW to force a lylo with me, who he suspected was the SK.

And since WW wasn't roleblocked, he was able to kill faust, who he was all over on D4, and try to get me lynched.  He had been under no suspicion the whole game, so he's in a good spot.

Why would I want to kill Faust as SK? How does me being "all over" him relate at all to this, since your argument was that I was just acting as town?

Because you wanted to lynch mafia to put yourself in the best position going into night.  You'd have free reign to do whatever you wanted.  You really seemed focused on hitting the right scum (mafia) as opposed to just hitting scum.  And that was in your best interest.  When it failed, you had to scramble.  You were pushing faust until the end, but it wasn't because you feared you were wrong on Eevee -- you never made any case against me.  So if you thought it was eevee/faust, like I did, you shouldn't have had such a problem with the lynch order.

Well, hopefully this can be recognized as an artificial argument, because it is.  I'm not really sure if my posts are evidence enough on that, but I'm guessing they are since I was basically filterless posting the entire time.

Filterless posting?  What's that?  Why would you ever filter?

And I never saw your ashersky is scum case, ever.  I clearly never made one on you, as I was defending your towniness most of the day.  Looks like everyone gets it wrong sometimes.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 07:33:38 pm
Jimmmmm did you commute?  If not, Faust shot BP Ash last night, and it had to be the passive BP, meaning it was still up.

Go read Faust.  He thought I was the SK.  Don't you think he would have roleblocked me?

Huh, that is weird.  Maybe he thought you'd go for Town, since you'd win if he was still alive.

According to the OP, the auto-win only happens if it's mafia and SK only.  No matter what, there's a town member alive today, so I don't see why you think the SK was banking on the auto-win. 

To me, it sounds like you made an error about your own wincon.

If Mafia shoots town and SK shoots town, and both go through, then SK wins.

And how would you try to coordinate that across factions?

And wouldn't the mafia attempt to shoot the SK since you've pointed out the mafia can't win on endgame ties?  So the SK would know that your plan doesn't work.

Hm, okay. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:36:54 pm
Quote
Quote
Quote from: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 09:29:21 am
I mean, 2 SK slots also have a jailkeeper, so that's another explanation for the missed kill. ADK being double-targeted seems extremely unlikely.

Traitor has Roleblock, too.  So I think in every case some kind of blocking is possible.  (It's either SK or Recruited Traitor, right?)

Witherweaver on D2 finding ways to explain away missing kills that are not the SK.  Makes sense to try and keep thoughts away from SK for as long as possible.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 07:37:04 pm
I don't remember if I posted the thinking of this:

The most convincing thing for Eevee---that there was no kill the night he was Jailkept---isn't as convincing as it seemed to be.  Because whether Eevee or Faust is Mafia, the explanation for the lack of SK kill is the same.  The only difference is:

1) If Eevee is Mafia, Jailkeeping prevented kill.
2) If Faust is Mafia, Faust shot SK!Ash or Eevee.  First being most likely.

Is the second scenario much less believable than the first?  I'm not too convinced.

I think I had another post about tracing night kills.  If Faust is Mafia, then he doesn't shoot Eevee (because Eevee for mislynch).  So why no Mafia kill?  He shot BP!SK.  Not Eevee, so has to be Ash.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 07:37:28 pm
Quote
Quote
Quote from: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 09:29:21 am
I mean, 2 SK slots also have a jailkeeper, so that's another explanation for the missed kill. ADK being double-targeted seems extremely unlikely.

Traitor has Roleblock, too.  So I think in every case some kind of blocking is possible.  (It's either SK or Recruited Traitor, right?)

Witherweaver on D2 finding ways to explain away missing kills that are not the SK.  Makes sense to try and keep thoughts away from SK for as long as possible.

Doesn't quite fit with me bringing up SK multiple times elsewhere.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:37:39 pm
I will say, on re-read, it's just really hard to find "SK tells" in posts.  They just don't happen that often, I don't think.

I'm focusing on WW's SK talk, mostly.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 07:38:23 pm
Quote
Quote
Quote from: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 09:29:21 am
I mean, 2 SK slots also have a jailkeeper, so that's another explanation for the missed kill. ADK being double-targeted seems extremely unlikely.

Traitor has Roleblock, too.  So I think in every case some kind of blocking is possible.  (It's either SK or Recruited Traitor, right?)

Witherweaver on D2 finding ways to explain away missing kills that are not the SK.  Makes sense to try and keep thoughts away from SK for as long as possible.

And wait, this is me explaining missing kills BECAUSE the SK is not killing.  I'm confused about your argument.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:39:33 pm
I don't remember if I posted the thinking of this:

The most convincing thing for Eevee---that there was no kill the night he was Jailkept---isn't as convincing as it seemed to be.  Because whether Eevee or Faust is Mafia, the explanation for the lack of SK kill is the same.  The only difference is:

1) If Eevee is Mafia, Jailkeeping prevented kill.
2) If Faust is Mafia, Faust shot SK!Ash or Eevee.  First being most likely.

Is the second scenario much less believable than the first?  I'm not too convinced.

I think I had another post about tracing night kills.  If Faust is Mafia, then he doesn't shoot Eevee (because Eevee for mislynch).  So why no Mafia kill?  He shot BP!SK.  Not Eevee, so has to be Ash.

Which may be a fine argument in theory, but you are also trying to argue that I was shot last night by faust and survived due to BP!SKness.  So when was I shot, then?

I think we'd figured out that the mafia needed to shoot the SK for sure to have a shot at winning.  Did he shoot me on N4?  Or did he shoot me on N2?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:40:22 pm
Quote
Quote
Quote from: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 09:29:21 am
I mean, 2 SK slots also have a jailkeeper, so that's another explanation for the missed kill. ADK being double-targeted seems extremely unlikely.

Traitor has Roleblock, too.  So I think in every case some kind of blocking is possible.  (It's either SK or Recruited Traitor, right?)

Witherweaver on D2 finding ways to explain away missing kills that are not the SK.  Makes sense to try and keep thoughts away from SK for as long as possible.

And wait, this is me explaining missing kills BECAUSE the SK is not killing.  I'm confused about your argument.

You are bringing up the traitor's roleblock for the first time in this chain -- you are introducing an alternate reason for a lack of kill.  So it's classic misdirection (hey, look at this hand here with the coin so you don't notice me take your wallet!)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 07:40:45 pm
I don't remember if I posted the thinking of this:

The most convincing thing for Eevee---that there was no kill the night he was Jailkept---isn't as convincing as it seemed to be.  Because whether Eevee or Faust is Mafia, the explanation for the lack of SK kill is the same.  The only difference is:

1) If Eevee is Mafia, Jailkeeping prevented kill.
2) If Faust is Mafia, Faust shot SK!Ash or Eevee.  First being most likely.

Is the second scenario much less believable than the first?  I'm not too convinced.

I think I had another post about tracing night kills.  If Faust is Mafia, then he doesn't shoot Eevee (because Eevee for mislynch).  So why no Mafia kill?  He shot BP!SK.  Not Eevee, so has to be Ash.

Which may be a fine argument in theory, but you are also trying to argue that I was shot last night by faust and survived due to BP!SKness.  So when was I shot, then?

I think we'd figured out that the mafia needed to shoot the SK for sure to have a shot at winning.  Did he shoot me on N4?  Or did he shoot me on N2?

No, Jimmm said he commuted, so Jimmm could have been shot last night.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:42:33 pm
A WW joke from D2:

Quote
Nooooo vote my partners first

Really funny in retrospect now that we know he was SK the whole time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:43:01 pm
No, Jimmm said he commuted, so Jimmm could have been shot last night.

Right, but only by the SK.  Mafia had to kill the SK to win because he loses the auto-endgame.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 07:43:54 pm
Quote
Quote
Quote from: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 09:29:21 am
I mean, 2 SK slots also have a jailkeeper, so that's another explanation for the missed kill. ADK being double-targeted seems extremely unlikely.

Traitor has Roleblock, too.  So I think in every case some kind of blocking is possible.  (It's either SK or Recruited Traitor, right?)

Witherweaver on D2 finding ways to explain away missing kills that are not the SK.  Makes sense to try and keep thoughts away from SK for as long as possible.

And wait, this is me explaining missing kills BECAUSE the SK is not killing.  I'm confused about your argument.

You are bringing up the traitor's roleblock for the first time in this chain -- you are introducing an alternate reason for a lack of kill.  So it's classic misdirection (hey, look at this hand here with the coin so you don't notice me take your wallet!)

Uh, okay, but I was constantly bringing SK up.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:43:59 pm
No, Jimmm said he commuted, so Jimmm could have been shot last night.

Right, but only by the SK.  Mafia had to kill the SK to win because he loses the auto-endgame.

Which is to say, faust didn't shoot Jimmmmm, he shot you or me.  And you or I shot faust.  (From Jimmmmm's perspective)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:45:37 pm
Quote
Quote
Quote from: jotheonah on October 06, 2014, 09:29:21 am
I mean, 2 SK slots also have a jailkeeper, so that's another explanation for the missed kill. ADK being double-targeted seems extremely unlikely.

Traitor has Roleblock, too.  So I think in every case some kind of blocking is possible.  (It's either SK or Recruited Traitor, right?)

Witherweaver on D2 finding ways to explain away missing kills that are not the SK.  Makes sense to try and keep thoughts away from SK for as long as possible.

And wait, this is me explaining missing kills BECAUSE the SK is not killing.  I'm confused about your argument.

You are bringing up the traitor's roleblock for the first time in this chain -- you are introducing an alternate reason for a lack of kill.  So it's classic misdirection (hey, look at this hand here with the coin so you don't notice me take your wallet!)

Uh, okay, but I was constantly bringing SK up.

I'm getting to that part of the re-read.

Later in the day 2 discussions, you have a series of "hey, reading the setup is cool" moments.  You point out the SK's ability to trade kills for powers, and then go on to expound on each and every power he has, and then end that string with this:

Quote
Not that I really want to lynch SK today, I just wanted to point it out here so I don't forget it later.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 07:45:58 pm
No, Jimmm said he commuted, so Jimmm could have been shot last night.

Right, but only by the SK.  Mafia had to kill the SK to win because he loses the auto-endgame.

So he shot you last night? 

You could have used 1-shot commuting or 1-shot BP in lieu of killing Night 2. 

Anyway, the point of that quote wasn't to argue that was correctly what happened Night 2; you had said I didn't show where I suspected you; I was explaining why I thought yesterday that you were the SK.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:47:22 pm
WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?

This is pretty awesome.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:48:42 pm
I guess also.. if I was Mafia, I would probably just bring up Silver's SK thing in my QT later instead of point it out here.

Though I guess I could be SK, but then Faust would be SK hunting, so he should vote for himself.  Of course, he kind of already implied this:

WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?

Why is it okay for you to "SK hunt", but when anyone else thinks about SK's it's scummy?

This is also awesomely funny in retrospect.

Re-reading when you know alignments is fun.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 04, 2014, 07:49:39 pm
Anyway, I have to go.

To Jimmmmmm:

The principle piece of evidence is Ash being Jailkept Night 1 and there only being one kill.  That's not conclusive, I know.  The other thing that tipped me off to Ash being SK, other than the Faust being Mafia logic, was the way he handled the Eevee/Faust thing.  It read kind of off to me.. like not from a townie perspective.  He kind of didn't really care if it was a mislynch or not, then realized he really should care more.

I, on the other hand, obviously did not want a mislynch there.  Hopefully you can see I looked very Town trying to figure out if it really was Faust or Eevee.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:56:21 pm
I will state again, re-reading for an SK is hard.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 07:58:56 pm
Anyway, I have to go.

To Jimmmmmm:

The principle piece of evidence is Ash being Jailkept Night 1 and there only being one kill.  That's not conclusive, I know.  The other thing that tipped me off to Ash being SK, other than the Faust being Mafia logic, was the way he handled the Eevee/Faust thing.  It read kind of off to me.. like not from a townie perspective.  He kind of didn't really care if it was a mislynch or not, then realized he really should care more.

I, on the other hand, obviously did not want a mislynch there.  Hopefully you can see I looked very Town trying to figure out if it really was Faust or Eevee.

Actually, you are making the point that I'm the towny one.

I had written and didn't post multiple times that a mislynch was actually a good outcome for us.  Why?  Because it forced scum to shoot at each other, or at least deal with each other at night, instead of just picking off the towniest players, or shooting at Jimmmmm until he couldn't commute anymore.

And why didn't I post that?  I wasn't sure anyone else had actually picked up on that fact.  I wanted both scum to be gunning for the other on the lynch front, as I thought it'd help us overall with figuring out who was who.  And a scum lynch was not going to be a bad thing anyway.

I was also very sure of my read on WW.  Kudos there, MVP for sure, win or lose.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 08:00:08 pm
Here's a later D2 post from WW on SK powers, completely backward from his previous expert knowledge:

Quote
Isn't it Mafia that is investigation immune and not SK?  Someone said it was SK.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 08:02:02 pm
Oh, fullclaim, btw?

I'm Mission Jones.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 08:07:32 pm
I'm on D3 of the re-read and man...WW is really absent after being a force in the game up to then. 

I also noticed he was super jokey all the first two days ... is that just his new thing?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 08:09:05 pm
WW on the no-kill from N2:

Quote
Possibilities on no kill:

(I) NO SK:

(1) Eevee was the target by Mafia and Silver is telling the truth.  Doesn't make a lot of sense.
(2) Eevee was the killer and Silver is telling the truth.  Makes more sense.
(3) Jimmmm was the target and commuted
(4) Traitor did not know Mafia and Roleblocked killer.  (Unlikely I think.)

(II) SK:
(1) Eevee was the target by SK and Silver is telling the truth.  Still seems unlikely.. does it make sense for SK to target Eevee here?
(2) All of (1--4) by Mafia and SK chose to not kill in order to use an ability.  (Investigation immunity, for instance.  Or is that passive?)
(3) All of (1--4) by Mafia and SK also shot the same target.  Also unlikely.

All these cases are getting a bit rough.  Can someone make a table of each PR lying and what it means for the setup, specifically SK/no SK? 

PPE: Faust.  Also has a point on Jailkeeping that can be added to above.

Is he arguing for or against SK here?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 04, 2014, 08:10:44 pm
Anyway, there's very little "evidence" to go on, from what I can see.

I know it's WW because I know Jimmmmm is town.  WW will say the same.

Jimmmmm, I don't know what you are going to be looking for.  At least you've been in this situation before.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on November 05, 2014, 03:34:00 pm
Vote Count 5.1

ashersky (1): witherweaver
witherweaver (1): ashersky

Not Voting (1): Jimmmmm

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch. The deadline for Day 5 will be Friday, November 14, at 5:00 PM forum time. 

But don't make me give out prods to anyone.  Because I will.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 05, 2014, 05:03:21 pm
Though I guess.. if it's you, Faust, Jimmm, then Jimmm gets to be kingmaker and you have no choice.

In that situation I refuse to vote anything other than no-lynch and hope they shoot each other.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on November 06, 2014, 04:42:49 pm
Vote Count 5.2

ashersky (1): witherweaver
witherweaver (1): ashersky

Not Voting (1): Jimmmmm

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch. The deadline for Day 5 will be Friday, November 14, at 5:00 PM forum time. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 06, 2014, 05:42:22 pm
Though I guess.. if it's you, Faust, Jimmm, then Jimmm gets to be kingmaker and you have no choice.

In that situation I refuse to vote anything other than no-lynch and hope they shoot each other.

Okay.  I was just postulating on possible night actions and possible thoughts people would have.

I disagree about Ash's point that mislynching yesterday would be a good thing.  I'm never going to want to mislynch.  (Well, unless I'm scum, obviously.)  Faust flipping Mafia before Eevee died would have made me think Ash was SK because of Night 2 resolution.  Okay, well, I guess if Ash shoots Jimmm and Jimmm commutes we still have 4 people and we're in the same situation here, though now both Eevee and Jimmmm need to choose between Ash and me.  But still, we couldn't guarantee that there would only be one death last night after a mislynch.  I was assuming we lost once Eevee flipped town.

Anyway.. want to share any thoughts, Jimmmm?  I actually don't know how to convince you here, but I'm hoping my general play this game will.  I guess Ash has a point that if I were SK I would have wanted to make sure to lynch Mafia yesterday.  All I can tell you was that I'm town and I put a lot of effort into trying to make sure we didn't mislynch yesterday, whether or not that was ultimately the correct strategy. 

I don't undrstand why Faust didn't Roleblock Ash.  Maybe he thought I was SK.  Or maybe, well.. if he blocks Ash and misses the Jimm kill, then there are no kills and it's me, Ash, Jimm, Faust today.  Faust is 1000% lynched. If he instead shoots me and blocks Ash, then it's Jimm, Faust, Ash, and he has to get Ash lynched, but as Jimmm said he would no lynch.  If he blocks and shoots Ash, then it's Me, Jimm, Faust and Faust is deaders.  So, maybe his only hope was that Ash would choose to shoot town for some reason and he shot Ash*. 

Well, maybe he did Roleblock Ash but Ash used Strongman and it still went through.

*In this case, I do not know what happened Night 2.  The passive BP would not have been used up Night 2, so I can't really explain the lack of kills there.  Unless Ash decided to use active 1-shot BP or 1-shot commute instead of killing.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 06, 2014, 07:27:59 pm
Thanks for refuting your own N2 argument there.  As mentioned, the N2 argument against me is flimsy at best.  All the narratives where I'm the SK on N2 don't make any sense.

You, though, just shot the wrong guy that night.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 06, 2014, 08:50:22 pm
I've been following and re-reading. I know which way I'm leaning.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 06, 2014, 09:07:04 pm
Huh?  That doesn't make sense.  The lack of N2 kills is just as hard to explain if I were SK.

I don't know what happened Night 2.  None of the possibilities really paint a convincing picture.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 06, 2014, 09:35:55 pm
Man I just remembered how I kept saying this was neither Town Ash or Scum Ash way back on Day 1 or 2.  I didn't connect the dots that SK made the most sense, but my instincts were really on this game.  I don't even think I ever voted for not scum except Eevee.  Oh yeah, I think it was on Silverspawn once because he said something that made me think he was SK, and Jimmmm once, but that was a lurker vote. 

I'm actually happy with how I played, except the not trusting my gut enough to insist Faust yesterday.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 06, 2014, 09:43:56 pm
I've been following and re-reading. I know which way I'm leaning.

By default you always lean toward lynching me, you know. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 06, 2014, 11:28:27 pm
I've been following and re-reading. I know which way I'm leaning.

By default you always lean toward lynching me, you know.

Not by default, only when you're scummy.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 07, 2014, 01:02:59 am
I've been following and re-reading. I know which way I'm leaning.

By default you always lean toward lynching me, you know.

Not by default, only when you're scummy.

Pretty sure that is the default.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 07, 2014, 01:05:21 am
I've been following and re-reading. I know which way I'm leaning.

By default you always lean toward lynching me, you know.

Not by default, only when you're scummy.

Pretty sure that is the default.

Now I'll feel bad if I lynch you. Good job.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 07, 2014, 01:07:27 am
lol

If it helps, it feels bad to be lynched.

You have to admit, if you were the last scum in a game and could choose your lylo townies, you and me are a great choice.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 07, 2014, 07:54:38 am
Sooooooooo DAMA....
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on November 07, 2014, 08:12:34 am
As stated in the v/la thread, I am leaving today and will be out of town until Tuesday.  I will have internet access but won't be able to check in as much, so I have given the necessary information to people in the speccy to do a flip if necessary while I am away.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 07, 2014, 09:46:18 am
I've been following and re-reading. I know which way I'm leaning.

By default you always lean toward lynching me, you know.

Not by default, only when you're scummy.

Pretty sure that is the default.

Now I'll feel bad if I lynch you. Good job.

If it helps,  you'll crush all my hopes and dreams if you lynch me.

Also, you'll lose.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on November 08, 2014, 12:08:06 am
Vote Count 5.3

ashersky (1): witherweaver
witherweaver (1): ashersky

Not Voting (1): Jimmmmm

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch. The deadline for Day 5 will be Friday, November 14, at 5:00 PM forum time.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 08, 2014, 11:06:30 am
If it helps, you'll crush all my hopes and dreams if you lynch me.

I'm pretty okay with that if you're scum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 08, 2014, 11:07:46 am
Anyway sorry, I'm not deliberately stalling. I'll try to have my vote down in the next couple of days.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on November 09, 2014, 02:36:21 pm
Vote Count 5.4

ashersky (1): witherweaver
witherweaver (1): ashersky

Not Voting (1): Jimmmmm

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch. The deadline for Day 5 will be Friday, November 14, at 5:00 PM forum time.

Prods have been issued to WW and Ashersky for 48+ hours of no activity.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 09, 2014, 02:46:10 pm
Posting because of Prod, but I don't think there's a lot more to say unless Jimmm wants to talk things through.

Though I was thinking, the narrative for me being SK is a huge stretch with:

1) 1 Death Night 1 and Ash being Jailkept
2) 0 Deaths Night 2
3) 1 Death Night 3

(conclusion redacted)... As I was typing up l realized that I could have shot Ash Night 1.  I didn't think about that before.  The point I was going to make is that the 1-shot bulletproof can explain one of the lack of kills, but not more than one.  So that makes Ash being Jailkept stronger evidence for him being SK, since it's another explanation for missing a kill, and those are hard to explain unless you think the SK was not shooting.  The protection part of Jailkeep undermines that a little bit.

 

Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 09, 2014, 05:30:10 pm
I'm also happy to discuss as needed, but not sure what else to say.

WW makes a good point that he shot me night 1.  That's a very likely move by SK!witherweaver.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Night 3 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on November 10, 2014, 05:29:22 pm
Vote Count 5.5

ashersky (1): witherweaver
witherweaver (1): ashersky

Not Voting (1): Jimmmmm

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch. The deadline for Day 5 will be Friday, November 14, at 5:00 PM forum time.

Prod has been issued to Jimmmmm for 48+ hours of no activity.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 10, 2014, 05:34:04 pm
Goodness me 2 days goes by quickly.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 10, 2014, 05:39:57 pm
Goodness me 2 days goes by quickly.

You have to learn to stop and lynch the Ashes.  Or smell the roses.  Or however that goes.  But lynch the Ashes.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 11, 2014, 03:11:31 am
Goodness me 2 days goes by quickly.

You have to learn to stop and lynch the Ashes.  Or smell the roses.  Or however that goes.  But lynch the Ashes.

You sound like Gollum.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on November 11, 2014, 10:45:10 pm
The Rules:

5. Prods of missing players will be issued automatically after 24 hours of no activity (VLA posts in the official VLA thread negate automatic prods). A prodded player has 24 hours to respond or risks replacement. A player who has been prodded 3 times is subject to replacement without further notice.

Games usually get very lax about inactivity in later days, and I have done the same thing.  However, after 4 days of inactivity, this is a second prod on Jimmmmm.  One more prod will result in a mod-kill.

I had forgotten that I had previously stated this as my ruling for prods.  Anyway, it has been 24+ hours since Jimmmmm's last post, which is the actual rule for prods, plus he already received that third prod I talked about.  Therefore,

Jimmmmm has been mod-killed.  He was Courtnee, the Town Detective.

Solo the Serial Killer Wins! Congratulations Ashersky!

MVP goes to Ashersky, whose tireless efforts, reads, and night action decisions led to the setup confusion and madness that eventually caught Ichimaru Gin as the traitor and won him the game.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on November 11, 2014, 10:45:31 pm
N1 actions:

ash skips kill, 1-shot BP townie
ichi roleblocks jimmmmm--success
hydrad kills ADK--success
joth investigates silverspawn--result: has not killed
Silverspawn jailkeeps ashersky--success

jimmmmm does not commute

N2 actions:

Ichi roleblocks Joth
faust kills Ashersky (fails- Ash commuted)
silverspawn jails eevee - success
joth investigates eevee - fails - "no result"
Ash- skips kill, commutes (does not use 1-shot BP)

Jimmmmm does not commute

N3 actions:

Faust roleblocks silverspawn - success
Faust kills joth - success
Silverspawn jailkeeps eevee - fails
Ashersky kills silverspawn - success
Ashersky uses 1-shot investigative immune - success
Joth investigates faust - success (but dead)

Jimmmmm does not commute

N4 actions

faust RBs Ash, skips kill - fails due to strongman
Ash strongman kills faust - success
Jimmmmm commutes
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: 2.71828..... on November 11, 2014, 10:45:48 pm
Mod qt (http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/mqBhLGtRSvF)
SK qt (http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/aEiiwdEqNDMZ)
mafia qt (http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/XAmpNSBMKaQx)
speccy (http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/MYzyyrvZShXF)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on November 11, 2014, 10:46:45 pm
madness that eventually caught Ichimaru Gin
;D
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on November 11, 2014, 10:55:34 pm
Wow. Surprised that my partner's thought I was the SK for so long. From the way they defended me, I thought they knew I was the traitor...
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 11, 2014, 11:05:13 pm
Wait what?  I think this is 100% the wrong call.

There's no pressure here for Jimmm to keep posting, he just has to vote before deadline.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 11, 2014, 11:06:26 pm
This is wrong wrong wrong wrong.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 11, 2014, 11:28:04 pm
A mod shouldn't decide the game like that.  Especially in a situation like this.  There is nothing more to say.. all the evidence is back in the 50 some pages of posts.  There's only one person that has to make a decision and that decision is barely---if at all---going to be aided by conversation with the rest of us. 

I could understand shortening the day or telling Jimmm he has to vote now, but outright killing him like that and forfeitting the game for town doesn't make sense.  Jimmmm has until the end of the day, and he doesn't necessarily need to interact with us.  Why make him check in every 24 hours with an empty post?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 11, 2014, 11:37:13 pm
Well, I'm sure it feels unfair to town.

I do think, given it was stated publicly in-thread that he was modkilled at next prod, it's the right call.

I know Jimmmmm has been busy with real life, as have many other players throughout the ages.  At some point, the punishment gets severe.

Think about it a different way -- no other player was able to affect the game at all.  That's unfair to me, to you, to anyone, due to the inactivity of one player who can (unintentionally as well) hold the rest of the game hostage.  That's why the rules are there.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 11, 2014, 11:38:43 pm
Yeah but there's no more play.  Earlier on I can understand, but we're waiting for nothing except the game ending.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 11, 2014, 11:39:49 pm
This could have happened yesterday and we would have (most surely) lost and I'd have no argument.  But there was really no reason for him to post.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 11, 2014, 11:44:58 pm
I like this in the mafia QT:

Quote
ashersky. Uhh, playing against ashersky is hard, almost as hard as playing on ashersky's side... he's a good player, but often misunderstood.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: ashersky on November 11, 2014, 11:46:39 pm
This could have happened yesterday and we would have (most surely) lost and I'd have no argument.  But there was really no reason for him to post.

If it happened yesterday, and the day continued and we lynched Eevee, you would have been kingmaker, since Faust would have RB + Kill, forcing me to BP and not kill.

If it happened yesterday, and the day ended...well, it's me/faust/you/eevee...I still shoot faust, so if faust kills town there, I win, if not, it's lylo.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 11, 2014, 11:49:49 pm
This could have happened yesterday and we would have (most surely) lost and I'd have no argument.  But there was really no reason for him to post.

If it happened yesterday, and the day continued and we lynched Eevee, you would have been kingmaker, since Faust would have RB + Kill, forcing me to BP and not kill.

If it happened yesterday, and the day ended...well, it's me/faust/you/eevee...I still shoot faust, so if faust kills town there, I win, if not, it's lylo.

I mean whatever happens, I'm not complaining about the mod intervention.  But in this case, Jimmmmm did not need to be posting.  There was no tomorrow he was holding us from.

At the *very* least he should have gotten a final warning, like vote now or you'll be killed.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 5 Start - PM for speccy
Post by: Witherweaver on November 11, 2014, 11:52:19 pm
The situation was "Jimmmmm, pick a winner by day end".  Why should it be " Jimmmmm pick a winner by day end, but if you don't post frequently enough I'm going to pick for you."?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: ashersky on November 11, 2014, 11:57:10 pm
It wasn't "pick a winner" so much as "win or lose."  Slightly different.

If it was me and faust he was choosing between, his inactivity would have resulted in my win over faust based on the OP.

Not sure why he didn't vote up to now.  I'm guessing he would have lynched me, although I feel like I played pretty well.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: Witherweaver on November 12, 2014, 12:05:15 am
Well whomever he voted for lost.  So he was effectively picking.

I'd like to know who he would have voted for. I feel like the thing that indicated you were SK is that you were pretty under the radar and non controversial. 
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: ashersky on November 12, 2014, 12:06:02 am
Well whomever he voted for lost.  So he was effectively picking.

I'd like to know who he would have voted for. I feel like the thing that indicated you were SK is that you were pretty under the radar and non controversial too towny.

Fixed.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: Witherweaver on November 12, 2014, 12:06:48 am
Though I didn't really realize that until recently.  And, of course, I already knew, so hindsight.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: Witherweaver on November 12, 2014, 12:07:57 am
Ha, well, I've never seen town you not get in a huge argument  or some big controversy.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: ashersky on November 12, 2014, 12:08:28 am
I was excited to roll SK, as I'd never played it before and had always wanted to.  I don't think I was much suspected at all until the last two days, when I sort of had to be suspected.

I see now that Faust shot me when I commuted, but it seemed like he didn't suspect me until much later.

Sorry Eevee, for thinking you were mafia.  You really did paint yourself into that corner though.  If I had listened to you on faust, the game might have ended sooner.

That last night really worked out in my favor, though.  Faust thought it was a bad idea, but I figured I had to try.  I actually expected Faust to shoot me, so that we'd be going into today with 4 alive.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: ashersky on November 12, 2014, 12:08:51 am
Ha, well, I've never seen town you not get in a huge argument  or some big controversy.

I had the requisite fight with Jimmmmm, actually.  Don't you recall?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: Jimmmmm on November 12, 2014, 12:12:41 am
I strongly, strongly protest.  >:(
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on November 12, 2014, 12:51:16 am
I figured it might be good to have someone whose independent of either wincon chime in. For what it's worth, I think e made the right call. He was following Yuma's guidelines, which made it clear what to do in this instance. I can understand it being difficult to take but hard calls have to be made sometimes.

So as someone who has no bias to either town's or the SK's interests, just wanted to say your decision has my support e!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: faust on November 12, 2014, 04:20:01 am
Fo what it's worth, I think the decision to mod-kill Jimmmmmm was unfortunate. That ruling in the OP is primarily there to be able to replace heavy-lurking players. It specifically says "replacement", not "mod kill". Punishing a whole faction for a single player's inactivity seems unfair.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: ashersky on November 12, 2014, 04:31:38 am

Why no kill last night?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: faust on November 12, 2014, 04:35:29 am

Why no kill last night?

There were 4 alive. I could have killed you, but then (if successful) town would almost certainly have lynched me. I could have killed one of WW/Jimmmmmm, but if you killed the other one, you'd win instantly. I thought if you still had your Strongman, I should wait until you used it - if you decided to use it on me, there was no way for me to win anyway. If you don't have Strongman, well, I would have won pretty much instantly, assuming WW/Jimmmmm don't kingmake you.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: ashersky on November 12, 2014, 05:03:20 am
If it was you/me/WW/Jimmmmm, were you so certain you could convince them?  Or would you have pushed for a No Lynch?

Because wasn't WW pushing you over Eevee?  At best it was split 2/2, so we go No Lynch and do it over.  If you had shot me last night, I would have lost my strongman and you would have won for sure.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: faust on November 12, 2014, 05:05:47 am
If it was you/me/WW/Jimmmmm, were you so certain you could convince them?  Or would you have pushed for a No Lynch?

Because wasn't WW pushing you over Eevee?  At best it was split 2/2, so we go No Lynch and do it over.  If you had shot me last night, I would have lost my strongman and you would have won for sure.

Yeah, I was aiming for no lynch, since town couldn't win anyway.

Also, I wasn't aware of the exact mechanics of your role (e wouldn't tell me). And well, I thought your BP was already used up in N2.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: faust on November 12, 2014, 05:19:49 am
Sorry Eevee, for thinking you were mafia.  You really did paint yourself into that corner though.  If I had listened to you on faust, the game might have ended sooner.

Well, noone can really blame you for thinking Eevee was mafia... even I thought he was for quite some time, and I was mafia myself!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: Eevee on November 12, 2014, 06:52:55 am
Sorry Eevee, for thinking you were mafia.  You really did paint yourself into that corner though.  If I had listened to you on faust, the game might have ended sooner.

Well, noone can really blame you for thinking Eevee was mafia... even I thought he was for quite some time, and I was mafia myself!
How did I paint myself in that corner, though?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: silverspawn on November 12, 2014, 07:00:32 am
mh :c  I really wanted to win this game

I think modkilling Jimmmm was correct, because you announced it. If anything, you could have given him more time as you announced it.

The biggest surprise was that Eevee was town. Wow. I was so sure you were scum/SK.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: ashersky on November 12, 2014, 07:07:51 am
Sorry Eevee, for thinking you were mafia.  You really did paint yourself into that corner though.  If I had listened to you on faust, the game might have ended sooner.

Well, noone can really blame you for thinking Eevee was mafia... even I thought he was for quite some time, and I was mafia myself!
How did I paint myself in that corner, though?

For me, the way you defended Hydrad was just too damning.  There were a few things that semi-cleared you moving forward, I think, but I felt like the actions weren't great.

You were townier by the end, but faust hadn't really given me any scum vibes other than his odd defense of the traitor and disbelief of silverspawn.

I mean, I shouldn't be sorry -- I was opposing you in the game.  But I still felt bad.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: silverspawn on November 12, 2014, 07:15:19 am
so much for preventing 3 kills, according to the night actions, I didn't prevent a single one  :( ash, not shooting twice in a row was an interesting decision.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: silverspawn on November 12, 2014, 07:26:06 am
Jimmmm, which player were you going to shoot? if it was ww anyway, we don't have to be bothered as much.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: Eevee on November 12, 2014, 07:33:56 am
I maintain that vehemently defending someone like I did is more often town that is gravely mistaken and deflecting into any competing wagons like faust did is partner worried.

It's on me I couldn't argue it convincingly enough of course. Seems like everyone thought I was scum. :(
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: faust on November 12, 2014, 07:39:49 am
Sorry Eevee, for thinking you were mafia.  You really did paint yourself into that corner though.  If I had listened to you on faust, the game might have ended sooner.

Well, noone can really blame you for thinking Eevee was mafia... even I thought he was for quite some time, and I was mafia myself!
How did I paint myself in that corner, though?

I guess you having me and Hydrad of all people as your top town reads on D1 convinced me you probably know we're your partners.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: Witherweaver on November 12, 2014, 10:16:59 am
I still feel this was unfair.

Also, I don't think Town played this game poorly (someone said something like that in the speccy).  XP lynch was obviously bad.  But we got Hydrad, then Ichi.  Eevee vs. Faust really was a challenge.  Faust felt like Mafia but there was a lot of evidence against Eevee.  Ultimately I should have pushed the Faust lynch, though I didn't really know how to make an argument other than "I think so", and I was wrestling with it myself.  I think we caught a break the last night, though, and probably would have won.

Jimmmm, were you going to vote me or Ash?
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: Witherweaver on November 12, 2014, 10:19:06 am
so much for preventing 3 kills, according to the night actions, I didn't prevent a single one  :( ash, not shooting twice in a row was an interesting decision.

Funny how I kept asking everyone if they would choose not to shoot any nights and like no one answered except Faust, who insisted the SK would always shoot.  (He's also the only one that could deduce that the SK did not shoot, since he shot Ash Night 2.)
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: jotheonah on November 12, 2014, 10:23:29 am
Well add me to the list of people frustrated by the ending. But also, we could point to this as a reason to lynch lurkers for the rest of time, so there's that.


ash, masterfully played. you're pretty good at this game.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: Witherweaver on November 12, 2014, 10:29:24 am
I don't even understand why he would even think he needs to keep posting.  There really should have been a warning.  I got a prod for this game and was pretty confused... my initial thought was "There's nothing left to do but wait, why do I need to keep posting?"  I also wondered if keeping posting and digging through things that I thought indicated Ash was SK would make me look better or worse.  Plus, I think the conversations between Ash and myself were causing more confusion than enlightenment.

I think this was entirely the wrong call.

But maybe we should invoke a universal lynch all lurkers rule on the forum.  We always end up arguing out of it (I'm generally one that argues against it), and it's caused trouble (for one faction or another) multiple times.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: ashersky on November 12, 2014, 06:42:07 pm
I was also prodded.

Jimmmmm was prodded an extra time, despite the public warning in thread, so I think that would count as the "extra" warning.

Your point about whether posting more might incriminate you is a good point -- I felt exactly the same way, as I was the bad guy.  I wanted to go on a full court press, but I thought Jimmmmm would just think that was me trying to deflect.  I did it as scum and Jimmmmm's partner in Super Mario where I must have posted a million times on the last day, and I thought he'd see that.

I think this discussion/argument is actually two: the specifics of this game, which cannot be changed at this point, and the overall future action for us.

I think that we have to start with an assumption: that excessive lurking (to be defined) negatively affects mafia games.  It's written into the Golden Rule in the rules posts of games, for example.

In this particular game, Jimmmmm had a definitely pattern of excessive lurking, to the point of multiple prods all game.  I don't think anyone can argue against that.  I do think it negatively affected the game, especially at the end (which is counter to WW's point).  I had to weigh the risk of posting to keep the game going with being caught; WW didn't have that.  It disadvantaged me.  Now, town would say they want to disadvantage the SK.  And I'm sure there's a way to do that.  I'd suggest even a small daily post with "well ash?" would be plenty to have forced me to post more and possibly outed myself.

Mafia is a game.  If we were playing Dominion and I played a Militia, making everyone wait two days before you decide what you discard would be cause for booting you from the game.  Maybe not the first time you do it, but definitely the third or more.  What lurking in this game did was hold everyone else, including spectators, up from enjoying the game.

As for WW's point about not needing to post anymore, I disagree.  The game was actively going on, while it slows down with less players, it shouldn't just end and be a game of solitaire.  The game is for everyone who signed up.  So activity rules should apply on all days.

Instead, maybe shorter days as the population gets smaller.  I don't see a need for more than 3 IRL days at LYLO.  If the game thread is 200 pages long, maybe longer.

On the second argument, about the way we handle this in the future -- I'd default to "it's up to the mod" in these cases.  I think the mod needs to make it clear in the rules, which I believe yuma did.  We always write "up to modkill" in the rules.

I can say that when I next mod, I will make it as explicit as possible.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: ashersky on November 12, 2014, 06:42:33 pm
Well add me to the list of people frustrated by the ending. But also, we could point to this as a reason to lynch lurkers for the rest of time, so there's that.


ash, masterfully played. you're pretty good at this game.

Thanks, man.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on November 12, 2014, 07:54:22 pm
Look silver. It's obvious you have something to say to me. Why not just say it? Why play games and try to draw this out further?
If you just want to ignore me that's fine. You obviously have no obligation to respond if you don't want to. However, you have stated that you are going to respond--along with some semi-ominous qualifying statement.

I'm not going to stop playing Mafia--and I don't see you stopping either. So let's get everything out on the table.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: silverspawn on November 12, 2014, 07:57:55 pm
Look silver. It's obvious you have something to say to me. Why not just say it? Why play games and try to draw this out further?
If you just want to ignore me that's fine. You obviously have no obligation to respond if you don't want to. However, you have stated that you are going to respond--along with some semi-ominous qualifying statement.

I'm not going to stop playing Mafia--and I don't see you stopping either. So let's get everything out on the table.

ahm, I didn't think one or two days mattered. and I'm certainly not doing it now, because I'll go to sleep in a few minutes. I'm not stalling for dramatic effect, I just didn't feel like answering it yet, and, as I sad, didn't think that a small delay would make any difference. I'll get to the answer. just wait, and then at some point, it'll be there.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on November 12, 2014, 08:00:32 pm
Look silver. It's obvious you have something to say to me. Why not just say it? Why play games and try to draw this out further?
If you just want to ignore me that's fine. You obviously have no obligation to respond if you don't want to. However, you have stated that you are going to respond--along with some semi-ominous qualifying statement.

I'm not going to stop playing Mafia--and I don't see you stopping either. So let's get everything out on the table.

ahm, I didn't think one or two days mattered. and I'm certainly not doing it now, because I'll go to sleep in a few minutes. I'm not stalling for dramatic effect, I just didn't feel like answering it yet, and, as I sad, didn't think that a small delay would make any difference. I'll get to the answer. just wait, and then at some point, it'll be there.
That's fine. I can be patient. I just hope you understand how it's discourteous to provide some ominous hints about what you're going to say and then stall.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: silverspawn on November 14, 2014, 02:58:35 pm
Okay, let's do this. What are the accusations?

Hey silver,

Just wanted to say I hope there's no hard feelings about this last game, now that we're both dead. At the time, I did feel that some of the statements you made were out of line, but time and distance help put them in perspective. At any rate, it should be a given that players are not attacking each other on a personal level--so posts should not be made or interpreted to that effect unless it is glaringly obvious that they are intended to offend.

I don't harbor any ill will against you, and I have confidence that we can get along well in future games.

Basically, the argument is that I stepped out of line of the civility pledge. Well, as I said before in the thread, I'm not that interested in the civility pledge, because I feel like how much a comment hurts someone (and that's what it's about, right?) has very little to do with whether or not it's fine according to the pledge. The post that hurt me most in mafia so far was teproc saying somthing like "you're good at rereading, good job", which is nowhere near overstepping the pledge.

Still, let's look at it:

Quote from: Civility Pledge
-- That said, all players are required to treat each other in a civil manner. What does this mean? Your criticisms of other players should not rise to the level of personal attacks. At the same time, you should assume other players' criticisms of you are not intended as personal attacks. In practice, remember that it is just a game, and though a player may be lying to you and distorting every word you say, that player is not an evil person outside of the context of the game. By the same token, if someone accuses you of lying and distorting every word he says, you should not assume that that player is accusing you of being evil outside of the context of this game.

-- In this spirit, choose your words considerately. Strong language may be required to express strong arguments--and no one wants to limit the strategic landscape of the game by policing speech--but please be reasonable. Everyone who is a member of this community can provide examples of debates that were appropriately colorful and heated, as well as a few instances that went over the line. We don't want anyone to sour on playing games with us because the language and the tone became personal, offensive, aggressive, etc. Don't do that.

This is very loosely formulated, so you could easily make arguments for both sides. e doesn't seem to think that I stepped over the pledge, because he modded it and didn't interfere (and he made this post (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11779.msg432004#msg432004), which to me sounds more like he thought your behavior was inappropriate).

So, because the pledge is so vague, I'm not going to dig more into that. I have no idea if I overstepped the pledge, I don't think there is a clear answer, and I don't really care anyway.

What I do care about is whether or not my posts where morally justified, so I'll try to figure that out. This was the first conversation:

I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?

Oh man, suck it up. I made a strategic decision to fake a non-PR. This argument is not even good if you accept that it's policy. If you can't handle this kind of thing, don't play mafia.

I find the tone of this post unnecessarily hostile.
Considering that you lied, it's pretty obvious that you don't understand how that is a horrible thing to do as town. It doesn't matter that you think it worked out for you. I guessed correctly what you were doing right away, and if I was scum, I would have killed you N1.

Quote from: silverspawn
if you think I'm scum, you can vote for me. but if I'm town, then I have kept a PR hidden until day3, and I've stopped possibly 3 of 4 kills. If you think that's a "horrible thing to do as town", then I can only repeat what I said in my last post. Ash said a similar thing, I gave him a similar response. I'm not being any more nice to you, and I don't know why you expected that.

Honestly, I think you were just making an incredibly weak argument. What you were saying is, "I don't like the way he plays, we should lynch him for playing like that". This argument... dunno, it's just really, really weak. It's hard for me to even explain why it's weak, because you just say "A so B" when there is no reason why B should follow out of A. You didn't say why me lying is a bad thing.

So, my response was very harsh, mostly because we were playing a game of mafia and appearing confident was what gave people a town read on me, because I'm not that confident as scum. But I think such a weak argument deserves a hostile response, so again, I think it was justified. I could have dropped the introduction "Oh man, suck it up." and leave the rest of the post as is (but again, I wanted to act confident). This is certainly the closest-to-the-edge post that I've made.

Your reply was, in my opinion, even weaker. Specifically with this line: "Considering that you lied, it's pretty obvious that you don't understand how that is a horrible thing to do as town. It doesn't matter that you think it worked out for you."

This is like saying "I don't care about facts, I have norms." Actually, that's exactly what you're saying.

So, let me make this very clear, because I honestly think you still think otherwise: lying as town is not objectively bad. It is impossible to argue that a certain style of playing is objectively bad, because there is no objective measurement. And because it is impossible, all you have as a basis is this game, where it worked perfectly. So... yeah. If you want to argue against lying, you could say things like "it usually turns out bad for town" or "most good players agree that it's bad." In fact, this is exactly what Eevee did. I have a response for that too, but I don't need it, because you didn't make that argument.

Oh and in addition to all of that, ash already attacked me for lying, and I already gave him a hostile response. You do the exact same thing. Attacking me for that again is like begging for a hostile response.

so tl;dr the only regret there is the "suck it up". aside from that, I think I answered your posts just fine. I would do it very similarly if it happened again.

Unfortunately, I think the next part is even more one sided.

There was this:
Quote from: silverspawn link=topic=11779.msg4a31576#msg431576 date=1414011701
Quote
Could you elaborate on the bolded part?
it basically means, I really dislike what jimmm is doing, and everything in me says "LYNCH HIM!", but that should not be what my decision is based on.

What have I done that you dislike?

a lot. man, it starts with the fact that you're painting yourself as the innocent one, which, in my opinion, is just absurd after your discussion with ash. but it really wouldn't be a good idea if i list every reason now. I don't like you. it's best to leave it at that. I'm trying not to let that influence my vote.

You know what, it's so, so unfair to say that you don't like how I play and you don't like me, but you won't tell me why. I'm guilty for what? Quoting ash without  keeping the whole quote in? Not being okay with him accusing me of personally attacking him?


phone posting.  no one hammer right away please. I'll be home and at my computer within the hour.

EVERYONE CHILL OUT!

seriously, there has definitely been some stuff that I think violates civility--and not from Jimmmmm either.  it looks like he and ash are good now, but now silver's starting in again.

it's OK not to try and have the last word guys.


Let me summarize that.
someone: could you explain in detail about what you meant here?
silver: I meant that I don't like Jimmm, and I'm trying to not let that influence my vote
jimmm: why don't you like me
silver: for example because X and Y but I shouldn't explain this in more detail
jimmm: not explaining it in detail is very unfair towards me
silver: *long post explaining it in detail*
Ichi: everything was okay and now silver thinks he has to start an argument again, because he wants to have the last word

what I did there was complying with an implicit request from Jimmm. honestly, I think your respose was more inappropriate than anything I have posted this whole game. Why were you saying "now silver's starting it again" when all I did was comply with a request. that's... ... !!

After I made the post, even Jimmm said: "I really appreciate it. We disagree on a fair bit, but that is so much better than simply saying you don't like me and leaving it at that." so it's obvious that he didn't have a problem with it, noone else had a problem with it, there is really no reason why anyone would, so I don't get why you did.

the only thing I think was bad about my post there was that I basically said "you shouldn't ask me to do this." That was stupid, he has the right to ask for that. but, you didn't complain about that part, so I guess it doesn't even matter.

you then continued to drop little hints at how BM you think I was this game which I'm not going to list, and as if that wasn't enough already, you even thought it was necessary to say again that you really think I was BM after your flip, and didn't just argue for alignment reasons.

overall, from the perspective of the civil pledge, you certainly had cleaner posts, but from a moral perspective, I think I had better posts. I'm not sure if that really answers your question or if your question was more like "do you think we can get along in future games," but because I think I acted fine, the answer to these kinds of questions is pretty trivial. I have no idea if we will get along, but I have no intentions of altering my playstyle regarding mannerism in any way, and I think that a lot of stuff you said was not okay, but heh whatever, I think a lot of stuff that a lot of people are doing is not okay, like eating meat every day, and I just have to live with that. I'll be able to live with you too. Generally, I even enjoy heated arguments in mafia.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: Ichimaru Gin on November 14, 2014, 03:19:03 pm
And you thought this post would offend me? I'm fine with what you have to say. Sure, you misconstrue my words a fair bit, but that's expected. I explicitly admitted that lying as town is not universally bad and stated that I even considered doing it myself. So nope, I'm not as bound to "norms" or whatever as you think I am.

I can admit to being passive-aggressive regarding some of the posts that I mentioned. Really the only thing I took issue with was you suggesting I quit the game. That statement in no ways follows from the post you quoted and is completely unjusitified. To be clear (I thought I already said this). I was not making an argument. I was just saying (obv. lying because I was scum) that I thought you were scum and you were lying and that I would be annoyed if they let you live after admitting to lying. That's all. It's a fabricated opinion, not an argument.

Blah blah blah. I have no expectations for you to change your playstyle. If I feel that you're overstepping civility in the future, I'll say something. Yes, you are correct that e's statement seems to be directed to me-- however, I will not apologize for feeling the way I did about the things you said to me. And obviously, I am not the only one to feel that you sometimes step over the line.

There are ways of getting your points across without being offensive. I have absolutely no problem with anyone saying that I made a weak argument or criticizing points I made or pointing out flaws in my reasoning. That's what this game is about. However, you have admitted to using hostility as a way to "punish" people or whatever, so that's whatever.

I likely won't be offended by you in the future, since I understand your playstyle and personality a lot better now. Hostile statements coming from you will carry different weight because of the source.

Summary

1. I can admit that you weren't out of civility in what you said in this game.
2. However, that does not mean that your statements weren't in a gray area.
3. You clearly misconstrue a lot of what I said in your previous post.
4. I can admit to being out of line as well as being passive-aggressive.
5. We move forward and just have fun playing Mafia!
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: AndrewisFTTW on November 14, 2014, 03:44:09 pm
I agree with e's decision that nobody mention the Civility Pledge in thread but rather if someone is personally offended a PM should be sent to the mod. I've been accused of violating the Civility Pledge and it seriously pissed me off as I'm sure it would anybody. For one thing, I don't think anyone here really goes out of their way to make things personal. Some things people say can be interpreted different ways and maybe sometimes the specific wording one uses doesn't make the player's true intentions clear. The lack of body language and tone is huge. I could go on but I think we all know all of this already. There will always be things we all regret saying and clarifying in the middle of a game might not always work out the way you want it to. But the important lesson (and maybe this should be included in the rules from now on) is that accusing someone of violating the pledge can often grind a game to a halt and a mod should be notified if you absolutely feel someone has gone too far.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: Witherweaver on November 14, 2014, 03:47:17 pm
Can we repeal the modkill to an official judicial board? :(
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: Witherweaver on November 14, 2014, 03:47:38 pm
er... appeal.  Or however languae works.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: Witherweaver on November 14, 2014, 03:47:49 pm
Language.  Okay I quit.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: Voltaire on November 14, 2014, 05:29:24 pm
I agree with ash's big post, and I'd say the right way to handle this is just shorten the deadlines based on the number of players. Just have a post at the start of the game that says, While there are X players alive, days will be Y real-life days. For all relevant numbers.
Title: Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!
Post by: mail-mi on November 17, 2014, 01:22:05 pm
Sorry guys that I kind of abandoned this game. I didn't really have the time to do anything with it. Thanks so much e!